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Sample records for space weather forecast

  1. Space Weather Forecasting: An Enigma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sojka, J. J.

    2012-12-01

    -pipe" disciplines. The perceived progress in space weather understanding differs significantly depending upon which community (scientific, technology, forecaster, society) is addressing the question. Even more divergent are these thoughts when the question is how valuable is the scientific capability of forecasting space weather. This talk will discuss present day as well as future potential for forecasting space weather for a few selected examples. The author will attempt to straddle the divergent community opinions.

  2. Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare

  3. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, Forecast Office

    NASA Video Gallery

    The Forecast Office of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the nation's official source of alerts, warnings, and watches. The office, staffed 24/7, is always vigilant for solar activity that ...

  4. How MAG4 Improves Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David; Khazanov, Igor; Barghouty, Nasser

    2013-01-01

    Dangerous space weather is driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs). Forecasting flares and CMEs is the first step to forecasting either dangerous space weather or All Clear. MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events.

  5. Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

    2015-12-01

    The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

  6. Space weather forecasting: Past, Present, Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lanzerotti, L. J.

    2012-12-01

    There have been revolutionary advances in electrical technologies over the last 160 years. The historical record demonstrates that space weather processes have often provided surprises in the implementation and operation of many of these technologies. The historical record also demonstrates that as the complexity of systems increase, including their interconnectedness and interoperability, they can become more susceptible to space weather effects. An engineering goal, beginning during the decades following the 1859 Carrington event, has been to attempt to forecast solar-produced disturbances that could affect technical systems, be they long grounded conductor-based or radio-based or required for exploration, or the increasingly complex systems immersed in the space environment itself. Forecasting of space weather events involves both frontier measurements and models to address engineering requirements, and industrial and governmental policies that encourage and permit creativity and entrepreneurship. While analogies of space weather forecasting to terrestrial weather forecasting are frequently made, and while many of the analogies are valid, there are also important differences. This presentation will provide some historical perspectives on the forecast problem, a personal assessment of current status of several areas including important policy issues, and a look into the not-too-distant future.

  7. Development of a Space Weather forecast service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirsch, Peter; Isles, John; Burge, Christina

    2014-05-01

    Space weather describes changes in the near-Earth space environment, it includes the monitoring of magnetic fields, plasma, radiation and other matter. Ejections of plasma from the Sun and magnetic storms at the Earth can increase the number of high energy particles trapped in the Earth's magnetic field; these events can present risks and hazards to space-borne instrumentation and personnel. Improved knowledge of space weather processes acquired through monitoring via both satellite and ground based instruments and related collaborative research projects (European Union Framework 7 - SPACECAST) has allowed the further development of forecasting models such as the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Radiation Belt model. A system is being developed which enables real-time access to a space weather forecast service. This service will provide a 3-hourly forward look, updated hourly. To enable this forecast, systems are in place to gather, in real-time, ancillary data required for input into the BAS model, in particular data from the GOES satellite instruments. Auxiliary information from other satellites (e.g. ACE) and ground based magnetometers are also gathered and presented to assist in the interpretation of current space weather activity. BAS is working in collaboration with satellite operators and other interested parties to provide an interface which will inform them, in a timely fashion, of events that may require mitigating action to prevent possible extensive (and costly) effects to, for example, communication services. Data can be obtained via a web service, or viewed directly via a browser interface. In addition, it is anticipated that a post-event analysis suite be available, enabling the more detailed view of recent and past events and the possibility of running the model to "replay" periods of space weather history.

  8. New approaches to space weather forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parnowski, Aleksei; Cheremnykh, Oleg; Yatsenko, Vitaly

    2010-05-01

    We developed several approaches to the problem of real-time space weather indices forecasting using readily available data from ACE and a number of ground stations. The first one is based on a dynamical-information approach to nonlinear modeling of space plasma [1]. It uses new nonlinear mathematical models of geomagnetic indices and original algorithms for detection of structure and parameters. The identification problem is formulated as a constrained optimization problem. Novel algorithms provide an optimal structure of discrete dynamical system using fuzzy systems modeling. The second one is based on the regression modeling method [2], which combines the benefits of empirical and statistical approaches. It uses such statistical methods as the linear regression analysis, maximum likelihood method, dispersion analysis and Monte-Carlo simulations to deduce the empirical relationships in the system. In both cases the typical elapsed time per forecast is about several seconds on an average PC. Such techniques can be easily extended to other indices like AE and Kp. The proposed system can also be useful for investigating of physical phenomena related to interactions between the solar wind and the magnetosphere - it already helped uncovering two new geoeffective parameters. In addition, we performed the risk analysis of damage to VUV, EUV and X-ray optics due to space weather factors and analyzed the safety of space instruments. We plan combining short-term and medium-term approaches to accurately predict geomagnetic storms at least 5-10 hours before commencement. Practical applications of such a system include (but are not limited to): - spacecraft safety (prediction of radiation threat); - human health (putting emergency services on alert); - prevention of technological disasters (power grid failures, major radio blackouts). 1. Cheremnykh O.K., Yatsenko V.A., Semeniv O.V., Shatokhina Yu.V. Nonlinear dynamics and prediction for space weather // Ukr. J. Phys. — 2008

  9. Surface Particle Detectors in Space Weather forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chilingarian, Ashot

    Recently several groups report on the development of the alarm system based on the surface particle detector data. Among them are high-latitude neutron monitors network "Spaceship Earth", coordinated by the group from Bartol Research Center; Muon network coordinated by the group from Shinshu University and Athens Neutron Monitor Data Processing Center. In the presented report, based on the information content of data from particle detectors of Aragats Space Environmental Center (ASEC) we made attempt to review possibility of surface particle detectors in Space Weather forecasts. Particle monitors located at ASEC at 1000, 2000 and 3200 m altitudes (40˚25 N, 44˚15 E; Vertical cut-off rigidity in 2007: 7.1 GV) detect charged and neutral components of the secondary cosmic rays with different energy thresholds and various angles of incidence. ASEC monitors reliably detect the highest energy CR due to unique geographical location and large underground high energy muon detector. Forecasting of the Solar Energetic Proton (SEP) events by surface particle detectors is based on the detection of the Ground Level Enhancements (GLE). Unfortunately not all SEPs contain particles energetic enough to produce GLE, therefore, the efficiency of the warnings will not be very high. Nonetheless, we can expect that the major events, (like 1859, 1956, 1972, 1989) with high probability will generate GLEs and surface detectors can provide forewarnings on upcoming abundant SEP particles. With the exception of the event on 20 January, when due to very good magnetic connection of the flare site with earth, all relativistic particles seem to come simultaneously, the enhancements of GeV solar particles detected by surface particle detectors can alert on upcoming severe radiation storm. The alerts from middle and low latitude monitors are even more important compared to high latitude networks, because of lower probability of false alarms. If an enhancement occurs at monitors with large cutoff

  10. Review on space weather in Latin America. 3. Development of space weather forecasting centers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dasso, Sergio; Gonzalez-Esparza, J. Americo

    2016-11-01

    The present work is the third of a three-part review of space weather in Latin America, specifically observing its evolution in three countries (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico). This work presents the decision process for the spinning off of space weather prediction centers from space science groups with our interpretation of the reasons/opportunities that lead to this. Lastly, the constraints for the progress in space weather monitoring, research, and forecast are listed with recommendations to overcome them, which we believe will lead to the access of key variables for the monitoring and forecasting space weather, which will allow these centers to better monitor space weather and issue warnings, ​watches and alerts.

  11. New Techniques in Space Weather Forecasting

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-05-01

    during Solar Cycle 23, J. Geophys. Res. (accepted ) 2006. [2] M. Kartalev, M. Dryer , K. Grigorov, E. Stoimenova. Solar wind polytropic index...Magneto Hydrodynamics (MHD) discontinuities that occur due to the solar wind, and its effects on communications. 15. SUBJECT...TERMS EOARD, Communications, Space Weather, Solar Physics 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON MICHAEL KJ MILLIGAN, Lt Col

  12. Operational Space Weather Forecasting: Requirements and Future Needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henley, E.; Gibbs, M.; Jackson, D.; Marsh, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    The Met Office has over 150 years' experience in providing operational forecasting to meet the UK's terrestrial weather needs, and is developing a similar capability in space weather. Since April 2014 the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) has issued 24/7 operational forecasts, alerts and warnings on space weather which can have impacts on electricity grids, radio communications and satellite electronics. In this talk we will summarise the current requirements and future needs for operational space weather forecasting. We will review what the terrestrial weather community considers as operational forecasts, and use MOSWOC as an example of the underpinning research, IT and collaborations required to accomplish this. We will also discuss the policy, science evidence base and user support requirements needed to obtain sufficient long-term funding for operational activities, illustrating this with the UK's national risk register, Royal Academy of Engineering report, and the forthcoming IPSP economic study, as well as work done with users to ensure services match their needs. These are similar activities to those being undertaken in SWORM and the COSPAR/ILWS Space Weather Shield to Society Roadmap. Future needs will also be considered, considering the need for operational observations, particularly focussing on the role an L5 mission could play; a chain of coupled operational models covering the Sun, Earth, and intervening space; and how these observations and models can be integrated via data assimilation.

  13. Near Real Time Data for Operational Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berger, T. E.

    2014-12-01

    Space weather operations presents unique challenges for data systems and providers. Space weather events evolve more quickly than terrestrial weather events. While terrestrial weather occurs on timescales of minutes to hours, space weather storms evolve on timescales of seconds to minutes. For example, the degradation of the High Frequency Radio communications between the ground and commercial airlines is nearly instantaneous when a solar flare occurs. Thus the customer is observing impacts at the same time that the operational forecast center is seeing the event unfold. The diversity and spatial scale of the space weather system is such that no single observation can capture the salient features. The vast space that encompasses space weather and the scarcity of observations further exacerbates the situation and make each observation even more valuable. The physics of interplanetary space, through which many major storms propagate, is very different from the physics of the ionosphere where most of the impacts are felt. And while some observations can be made from ground-based observatories, many of the most critical data comes from satellites, often in unique orbits far from Earth. In this presentation, I will describe some of the more important sources and types of data that feed into the operational alerts, watches, and warnings of space weather storms. Included will be a discussion of some of the new space weather forecast models and the data challenges that they bring forward.

  14. Forecasting of Weather Effects for the Deep Space Network

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendoza, Ricardo; Benjauthrit, Boonsieng

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a proposed approach for Ka-band link management for deep space applications using daily weather forecasts and discusses the tools that will be employed for operations. Performance metrics are also presented. The proposed approach will be tested in a two-year experiment campaign.

  15. Fifty Years of Space Weather Forecasting from Boulder

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berger, T. E.

    2015-12-01

    The first official space weather forecast was issued by the Space Disturbances Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, in 1965, ushering in an era of operational prediction that continues to this day. Today, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) charters the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) as one of the nine National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to provide the nation's official watches, warnings, and alerts of space weather phenomena. SWPC is now integral to national and international efforts to predict space weather events, from the common and mild, to the rare and extreme, that can impact critical technological infrastructure. In 2012, the Strategic National Risk Assessment included extreme space weather events as low-to-medium probability phenomena that could, unlike any other meteorogical phenomena, have an impact on the government's ability to function. Recognizing this, the White House chartered the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to produce the first comprehensive national strategy for the prediction, mitigation, and response to an extreme space weather event. The implementation of the National Strategy is ongoing with NOAA, its partners, and stakeholders concentrating on the goal of improving our ability to observe, model, and predict the onset and severity of space weather events. In addition, work continues with the research community to improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms - on the Sun, in the heliosphere, and in the Earth's magnetic field and upper atmosphere - of space weather as well as the effects on critical infrastructure such as electrical power transmission systems. In fifty years, people will hopefully look back at the history of operational space weather prediction and credit our efforts today with solidifying the necessary developments in observational systems, full-physics models of the entire Sun-Earth system, and tools for predicting the impacts to infrastructure to protect

  16. Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reikard, Gordon

    2011-06-01

    Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.

  17. Aviation & Space Weather Policy Research: Integrating Space Weather Observations & Forecasts into Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisher, G.; Jones, B.

    2006-12-01

    The American Meteorological Society and SolarMetrics Limited are conducting a policy research project leading to recommendations that will increase the safety, reliability, and efficiency of the nation's airline operations through more effective use of space weather forecasts and information. This study, which is funded by a 3-year National Science Foundation grant, also has the support of the Federal Aviation Administration and the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) who is planning the Next Generation Air Transportation System. A major component involves interviewing and bringing together key people in the aviation industry who deal with space weather information. This research also examines public and industrial strategies and plans to respond to space weather information. The focus is to examine policy issues in implementing effective application of space weather services to the management of the nation's aviation system. The results from this project will provide government and industry leaders with additional tools and information to make effective decisions with respect to investments in space weather research and services. While space weather can impact the entire aviation industry, and this project will address national and international issues, the primary focus will be on developing a U.S. perspective for the airlines.

  18. Space weather forecasting with a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schunk, R. W.; Scherliess, L.; Eccles, V.; Gardner, L. C.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.; Pi, X.; Mannucci, A. J.; Butala, M.; Wilson, B. D.; Komjathy, A.; Wang, C.; Rosen, G.

    2016-07-01

    The goal of the Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) program is to improve space weather specification and forecasting with ensemble modeling. Space weather can have detrimental effects on a variety of civilian and military systems and operations, and many of the applications pertain to the ionosphere and upper atmosphere. Space weather can affect over-the-horizon radars, HF communications, surveying and navigation systems, surveillance, spacecraft charging, power grids, pipelines, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA's) Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). Because of its importance, numerous space weather forecasting approaches are being pursued, including those involving empirical, physics-based, and data assimilation models. Clearly, if there are sufficient data, the data assimilation modeling approach is expected to be the most reliable, but different data assimilation models can produce different results. Therefore, like the meteorology community, we created a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) for the Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics (ITE) system that is based on different data assimilation models. The MEPS ensemble is composed of seven physics-based data assimilation models for the ionosphere, ionosphere-plasmasphere, thermosphere, high-latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics, and middle to low latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics. Hence, multiple data assimilation models can be used to describe each region. A selected storm event that was reconstructed with four different data assimilation models covering the middle and low latitude ionosphere is presented and discussed. In addition, the effect of different data types on the reconstructions is shown.

  19. An overview on the Space Weather in Latin America: from Space Research to Space Weather and its Forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Nardin, C. M.; Gonzalez-Esparza, A.; Dasso, S.

    2015-12-01

    We present an overview on the Space Weather in Latin America, highlighting the main findings from our review the recent advances in the space science investigations in Latin America focusing in the solar-terrestrial interactions, modernly named space weather, which leaded to the creation of forecast centers. Despite recognizing advances in the space research over the whole Latin America, this review is restricted to the evolution observed in three countries (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico) only, due to the fact that these countries have recently developed operational center for monitoring the space weather. The work starts with briefly mentioning the first groups that started the space science in Latin America. The current status and research interest of such groups are then described together with the most referenced works and the challenges for the next decade to solve space weather puzzles. A small inventory of the networks and collaborations being built is also described. Finally, the decision process for spinning off the space weather prediction centers from the space science groups is reported with an interpretation of the reason/opportunities that lead to it. Lastly, the constraints for the progress in the space weather monitoring, research, and forecast are listed with recommendations to overcome them.

  20. Forecasting Safe or Dangerous Space Weather from HMI Magnetograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor; Moore, Ron

    2011-01-01

    We have developed a space-weather forecasting tool using an active-region free-energy proxy that was measured from MDI line-of-sight magnetograms. To develop this forecasting tool (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather Journal, in press), we used a database of 40,000 MDI magnetograms of 1300 active regions observed by MDI during the previous solar cycle (cycle 23). From each magnetogram we measured our free-energy proxy and for each active region we determined its history of major flare, CME and Solar Particle Event (SPE) production. This database determines from the value of an active region s free-energy proxy the active region s expected rate of production of 1) major flares, 2) CMEs, 3) fast CMEs, and 4) SPEs during the next few days. This tool was delivered to NASA/SRAG in 2010. With MDI observations ending, we have to be able to use HMI magnetograms instead of MDI magnetograms. One of the difficulties is that the measured value of the free-energy proxy is sensitive to the spatial resolution of the measured magnetogram: the 0.5 /pixel resolution of HMI gives a different value for the free-energy proxy than the 2 /pixels resolution of MDI. To use our MDI-database forecasting curves until a comparably large HMI database is accumulated, we smooth HMI line-of-sight magnetograms to MDI resolution, so that we can use HMI to find the value of the free-energy proxy that MDI would have measured, and then use the forecasting curves given by the MDI database. The new version for use with HMI magnetograms was delivered to NASA/SRAG (March 2011). It can also use GONG magnetograms, as a backup.

  1. Forecasting Space Weather Events for a Neighboring World

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zheng, Yihua; Mason, Tom; Wood, Erin L.

    2015-01-01

    Shortly after NASA's Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN mission (MAVEN) spacecraft entered Mars' orbit on 21 September 2014, scientists glimpsed the Martian atmosphere's response to a front of solar energetic particles (SEPs) and an associated coronal mass ejection (CME). In response to some solar flares and CMEs, streams of SEPs burst from the solar atmosphere and are further accelerated in the interplanetary medium between the Sun and the planets. These particles deposit their energy and momentum into anything in their path, including the Martian atmosphere and MAVEN particle detectors. MAVEN scientists had been alerted to the likely CME-Mars encounter by a space weather prediction system that had its origins in space weather forecasting for Earth but now forecasts space weather for Earth's neighboring planets. The two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft and Solar Heliospheric Observatory observed a CME on 26 September, with a trajectory that suggested a Mars intercept. A computer model developed for solar wind prediction, the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil cone model [e.g., Zheng et al., 2013; Parsons et al., 2011], running in real time at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) located at NASA Goddard since 2006, showed the CME propagating in the direction of Mars (Figure 1). According to MAVEN particle detectors, the disturbance and accompanying SEP enhancement at the leading edge of the CME reached Mars at approximately 17 hours Universal Time on 29 September 2014. Such SEPs may have a profound effect on atmospheric escape - they are believed to be a possible means for driving atmospheric loss. SEPs can cause loss of Mars' upper atmosphere through several loss mechanisms including sputtering of the atmosphere. Sputtering occurs when atoms are ejected from the atmosphere due to impacts with energetic particles.

  2. Sol-Terra - AN Operational Space Weather Forecasting Model Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bisi, M. M.; Lawrence, G.; Pidgeon, A.; Reid, S.; Hapgood, M. A.; Bogdanova, Y.; Byrne, J.; Marsh, M. S.; Jackson, D.; Gibbs, M.

    2015-12-01

    The SOL-TERRA project is a collaboration between RHEA Tech, the Met Office, and RAL Space funded by the UK Space Agency. The goal of the SOL-TERRA project is to produce a Roadmap for a future coupled Sun-to-Earth operational space weather forecasting system covering domains from the Sun down to the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere and neutral atmosphere. The first stage of SOL-TERRA is underway and involves reviewing current models that could potentially contribute to such a system. Within a given domain, the various space weather models will be assessed how they could contribute to such a coupled system. This will be done both by reviewing peer reviewed papers, and via direct input from the model developers to provide further insight. Once the models have been reviewed then the optimal set of models for use in support of forecast-based SWE modelling will be selected, and a Roadmap for the implementation of an operational forecast-based SWE modelling framework will be prepared. The Roadmap will address the current modelling capability, knowledge gaps and further work required, and also the implementation and maintenance of the overall architecture and environment that the models will operate within. The SOL-TERRA project will engage with external stakeholders in order to ensure independently that the project remains on track to meet its original objectives. A group of key external stakeholders have been invited to provide their domain-specific expertise in reviewing the SOL-TERRA project at critical stages of Roadmap preparation; namely at the Mid-Term Review, and prior to submission of the Final Report. This stakeholder input will ensure that the SOL-TERRA Roadmap will be enhanced directly through the input of modellers and end-users. The overall goal of the SOL-TERRA project is to develop a Roadmap for an operational forecast-based SWE modelling framework with can be implemented within a larger subsequent activity. The SOL-TERRA project is supported within

  3. Generation of a Solar Wind Ensemble for Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hassan, E.; Morley, S.; Steinberg, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    Knowing the upstream solar wind conditions is essential in forecasting the variations in the geomangetic field and the status of the Earth's ionosphere. Most data-driven simulations or data-assimilation codes, used for space weather forecasting, are based on the solar wind measurements at 1 AU, or more specifically at the first Lagrangian orbit (L1), such as observations from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). However, L1 measurements may not represent the solar wind conditions just outside the magnetosphere. As a result, time-series measurements from L1 by themselves are not adequate to run simulations to derive probabilistic forecasts of the magnetosphere and ionosphere. To obtain confidence levels and uncertainty estimates, a solar wind ensemble data set is desirable. Therefore we used three years of measurements atACE advected using the flat delay method to the Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP8) spacecraft location. Then, we compared both measurements to establish Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) functions for IMP8 measurements based on ACE measurements. In addition, we used a 4-categorization scheme to sort the incoming solar wind into ejecta, coronal-hole-origin, sector-reversal-regions, and streamer-belt-origin categories at both ACE and IMP8. We established the KDE functions for each category and compared with the uncategorized KDE functions. The location of the IMP8 spacecraft allows us to use these KDE functions to generate ensemble of solar wind data close to Earth's magnetopause. The ensemble can then be used to forecast the state of the geomagnetic field and the ionosphere.

  4. Space Weather Forecasting and Research at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aronne, M.

    2015-12-01

    The Space Weather Research Center (SWRC), within the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), provides experimental research forecasts and analysis for NASA's robotic mission operators. Space weather conditions are monitored to provide advance warning and forecasts based on observations and modeling using the integrated Space Weather Analysis Network (iSWA). Space weather forecasters come from a variety of backgrounds, ranging from modelers to astrophysicists to undergraduate students. This presentation will discuss space weather operations and research from an undergraduate perspective. The Space Weather Research, Education, and Development Initiative (SW REDI) is the starting point for many undergraduate opportunities in space weather forecasting and research. Space weather analyst interns play an active role year-round as entry-level space weather analysts. Students develop the technical and professional skills to forecast space weather through a summer internship that includes a two week long space weather boot camp, mentorship, poster session, and research opportunities. My unique development of research projects includes studying high speed stream events as well as a study of 20 historic, high-impact solar energetic particle events. This unique opportunity to combine daily real-time analysis with related research prepares students for future careers in Heliophysics.

  5. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  6. Integration of Space Weather Forecasts into Space Protection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reeves, G.

    2012-09-01

    How would the US respond to a clandestine attack that disabled one of our satellites? How would we know that it was an attack, not a natural failure? The goal of space weather programs as applied to space protection are simple: Provide a rapid and reliable assessment of the probability that satellite or system failure was caused by the space environment. Achieving that goal is not as simple. However, great strides are being made on a number of fronts. We will report on recent successes in providing rapid, automated anomaly/attack assessment for the penetrating radiation environment in the Earth's radiation belts. We have previously reported on the Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) that was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to assess hazards posed by the natural and by nuclear radiation belts. This year we will report on recent developments that are moving this program from the research, test, and evaluation phases to real-time implementation and application. We will discuss the challenges of leveraging space environment data sets for applications that are beyond the scope of mission requirements, the challenges of moving data from where they exist to where they are needed, the challenges of turning data into actionable information, and how those challenges were overcome. We will discuss the state-of-the-art as it exists in 2012 including the new capabilities that have been enabled and the limitations that still exist. We will also discuss how currently untapped data resources could advance the state-of-the-art and the future steps for implementing automatic real-time anomaly forensics.

  7. Monitoring and Forecasting Space Weather in Geospace Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lyatsky, Wladislaw; Khazanov, George V.

    2008-01-01

    For improving the reliability of Space Weather prediction, we developed a new, Polar Magnetic (PM) index of geomagnetic activity, which shows high correlation with both upstream solar wind data and related events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. Similarly to the existing polar cap PC index, the new PM index was computed from data from two near-pole geomagnetic observatories; however, the method for computing the PM index is different. The high correlation of the PM index with both solar wind data and events in Geospace environment makes possible to improve significantly forecasting geomagnetic disturbances and such important parameters as the cross-polar-cap voltage and global Joule heating, which play an important role in the development of geomagnetic, ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances. We tested the PM index for 10-year period (1995-2004). The correlation between PM index and upstream solar wind data for these years is very high (the average correlation coefficient R approximately equal to 0.86). The PM index also shows the high correlation with the cross-polar-cap voltage and hemispheric Joule heating (the correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values of these parameters approximately equal to 0.9), which results in significant increasing the prediction reliability of these parameters. Using the PM index of geomagnetic activity provides a significant increase in the forecasting reliability of geomagnetic disturbances and related events in Geospace environment. The PM index may be also used as an important input parameter in modeling ionospheric, magnetospheric, and thermospheric processes.

  8. Tools and Products of Real-Time Modeling: Opportunities for Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael

    2009-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second CCMC activity is to support Space Weather forecasting at national Space Weather Forecasting Centers. This second activity involves model evaluations, model transitions to operations, and the development of draft Space Weather forecasting tools. This presentation will focus on the last element. Specifically, we will discuss present capabilities, and the potential to derive further tools. These capabilities will be interpreted in the context of a broad-based, bootstrapping activity for modern Space Weather forecasting.

  9. Cone Model for Halo CMEs: Application to Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xie, Hong; Ofman, Leon; Lawrence, Gareth

    2004-01-01

    In this study, we present an innovative analytical method to determine the angular width and propagation orientation of halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The relation of CME actual speed with apparent speed and its components measured at different position angle has been investigated. The present work is based on the cone model proposed by Zhao et al. We have improved this model by: (1) eliminating the ambiguity via a new analytical approach, (2) using direct measurements of projection onto the plane of the sky (POS), and (3) determining the actual radial speeds from projection speeds at different position angles to clarify the uncertainty of projection speeds in previous empirical models. Our analytical approach allows us to use coronagraph data to determine accurately the geometrical features of POS projections, such as major axis, minor axis, and the displacement of the center of its projection, and to determine the angular width and orientation of a given halo CME. Our approach allows for the first time the determination of the actual CME speed, width, and source location by using coronagraph data quantitatively and consistently. The method greatly enhances the accuracy of the derived geometrical and kinematical properties of halo CMEs, and can be used to optimize Space Weather forecasts. The applied model predications are in good agreement with observations.

  10. Solar and space weather phenomenological forecasting using pattern recognition operators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosa, R.; Ramos, F.; Vijaykumar, N.; Andrade, M.; Fernandes, F.; Cecatto, J.; Sharma, A.; Sawant, H.

    Yohkoh, SOHO and HESSI satellites have shown morphological change of the coronal magnetic structures in several scales. Particularly, the soft X ray images- have revealed the existence of dynamic structures with magnetic field configuration varying from regular to complex patterns. In order to characterize the spatio- temporal evolution of such structures, a methodology is proposed in terms of matrix computational operators to quantify the amount of symmetry breaking along the gradient field evolution of the sequence of images. Characterization of symmetry breaking in the gradient field of the energy envelope has been an useful tool to understand complex plasma regimes. In this paper we introduce the application of the Gradient Pattern Analysis (GPA) technique as a new matrix computational operator for spatio-temporal plasma gradient field analysis. This operator yields a measure of the symmetry breaking and phase disorder parameters responding to the active region plasma regimes. In order to characterize the GPA performance into the context of solar physics, we apply this technique on X-ray emission measurement from solar coronal plasma observed by means of Yohkoh satellite. The preliminary results and interpretations suggest a new phenomenological approach for the spatio- temporal evolution of soft X ray active regions, mainly those whose morphology- goes from a regular to a complex magnetic configuration a companied by thec increase of the dissipated energy. We discuss the importance of this semi-empirical modelling for space weather forecasting into the context of solar-terrestrial relationship.

  11. Realtime Space Weather Forecasts Via Android Phone App

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crowley, G.; Haacke, B.; Reynolds, A.

    2010-12-01

    For the past several years, ASTRA has run a first-principles global 3-D fully coupled thermosphere-ionosphere model in real-time for space weather applications. The model is the Thermosphere-Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIMEGCM). ASTRA also runs the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) in real-time. Using AMIE to drive the high latitude inputs to the TIMEGCM produces high fidelity simulations of the global thermosphere and ionosphere. These simulations can be viewed on the Android Phone App developed by ASTRA. The SpaceWeather app for the Android operating system is free and can be downloaded from the Google Marketplace. We present the current status of realtime thermosphere-ionosphere space-weather forcasting and discuss the way forward. We explore some of the issues in maintaining real-time simulations with assimilative data feeds in a quasi-operational setting. We also discuss some of the challenges of presenting large amounts of data on a smartphone. The ASTRA SpaceWeather app includes the broadest and most unique range of space weather data yet to be found on a single smartphone app. This is a one-stop-shop for space weather and the only app where you can get access to ASTRA’s real-time predictions of the global thermosphere and ionosphere, high latitude convection and geomagnetic activity. Because of the phone's GPS capability, users can obtain location specific vertical profiles of electron density, temperature, and time-histories of various parameters from the models. The SpaceWeather app has over 9000 downloads, 30 reviews, and a following of active users. It is clear that real-time space weather on smartphones is here to stay, and must be included in planning for any transition to operational space-weather use.

  12. Space Weather Education: Learning to Forecast at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wold, A.

    2015-12-01

    Enhancing space weather education is important to space science endeavors. While participating in the Space Weather Research, Education and Development Initiative (SW REDI) Bootcamp and working as a Space Weather Analyst Intern, several innovative technologies and tools were integral to my learning and understanding of space weather analysis and forecasting. Two of the tools utilized in learning about space weather were the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA) and the Space Weather Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (DONKI). iSWA, a web-based dissemination system, hosts many state-of-the-art space weather models as well as real time space weather data from spacecraft such as Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Advanced Composition Explorer. As a customizable tool that operates in real-time while providing access also to historical data, iSWA proved essential in my understanding the drivers and impacts of space weather. DONKI was instrumental in accessing historical space weather events to understand the connections between solar phenomena and their effects on Earth environments. DONKI operates as a database of space weather events including linkages between causes and effects of space weather events. iSWA and DONKI are tools available also to the public. They not only enrich the space weather learning process but also allow researchers and model developers access to essential heliophysics and magnetospheric data.

  13. State-of-the-art Space Weather Forecast with AFFECTS and HELCATS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bothmer, Volker; Affects Team; Helcats Team

    2016-04-01

    The space weather projects fostered through the European Union FP7 and Horizon 2020 programs have opened up new horizons in the field of space weather research and have facilitated state-of-the-art-forecasts. Here we present an overview on the services and space weather forecasts the EU FP7 project AFFECTS (Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communications Through Space) is providing and how the precision of the forecast is qualitatively greatly enhanced by new results derived from the EU FP7 project HELCATS (Heliospheric Cataloguing, Analysis, and Techniques Services). The forecast techniques base on near-real time multipoint analysis of coronal mass ejections observed by SOHO and STEREO and simulations of their Sun to Earth evolution.

  14. Activities of the Japanese space weather forecast center at Communications Research Laboratory.

    PubMed

    Watari, Shinichi; Tomita, Fumihiko

    2002-12-01

    The International Space Environment Service (ISES) is an international organization for space weather forecasts and belongs to the International Union of Radio Science (URSI). There are eleven ISES forecast centers in the world, and Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) runs the Japanese one. We make forecasts on the space environment and deliver them over the phones and through the Internet. Our forecasts could be useful for human activities in space. Currently solar activity is near maximum phase of the solar cycle 23. We report the several large disturbances of space environment occurred in 2001, during which low-latitude auroras were observed several times in Japan.

  15. Utilizing Probability Distribution Functions and Ensembles to Forecast lonospheric and Thermosphere Space Weather

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-04-26

    Functions and Ensembles to Forecast lonospheric and Thermosphere Space Weather 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER FA9550-12-1-0265 5c. PROGRAM...Wind Velocity, Ionosphere, Thermosphere, Space Weather 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT UU 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 10 19a...and realistic. • The ability of an ensemble-driven ionosphere-thermosphere model to “predict” space weather needs to be proven. This will be done

  16. Using Science Data and Models for Space Weather Forecasting - Challenges and Opportunities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael; Pulkkinen, Antti; Zheng, Yihua; Maddox, Marlo; Berrios, David; Taktakishvili, Sandro; Kuznetsova, Masha; Chulaki, Anna; Lee, Hyesook; Mullinix, Rick; Rastaetter, Lutz

    2012-01-01

    Space research, and, consequently, space weather forecasting are immature disciplines. Scientific knowledge is accumulated frequently, which changes our understanding or how solar eruptions occur, and of how they impact targets near or on the Earth, or targets throughout the heliosphere. Along with continuous progress in understanding, space research and forecasting models are advancing rapidly in capability, often providing substantially increases in space weather value over time scales of less than a year. Furthermore, the majority of space environment information available today is, particularly in the solar and heliospheric domains, derived from research missions. An optimal forecasting environment needs to be flexible enough to benefit from this rapid development, and flexible enough to adapt to evolving data sources, many of which may also stem from non-US entities. This presentation will analyze the experiences obtained by developing and operating both a forecasting service for NASA, and an experimental forecasting system for Geomagnetically Induced Currents.

  17. A Space Weather Forecasting System with Multiple Satellites Based on a Self-Recognizing Network

    PubMed Central

    Tokumitsu, Masahiro; Ishida, Yoshiteru

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a space weather forecasting system at geostationary orbit for high-energy electron flux (>2 MeV). The forecasting model involves multiple sensors on multiple satellites. The sensors interconnect and evaluate each other to predict future conditions at geostationary orbit. The proposed forecasting model is constructed using a dynamic relational network for sensor diagnosis and event monitoring. The sensors of the proposed model are located at different positions in space. The satellites for solar monitoring equip with monitoring devices for the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind speed. The satellites orbit near the Earth monitoring high-energy electron flux. We investigate forecasting for typical two examples by comparing the performance of two models with different numbers of sensors. We demonstrate the prediction by the proposed model against coronal mass ejections and a coronal hole. This paper aims to investigate a possibility of space weather forecasting based on the satellite network with in-situ sensing. PMID:24803190

  18. From Early Exploration to Space Weather Forecasts: Canada's Geomagnetic Odyssey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lam, Hing-Lan

    2011-05-01

    Canada is a region ideally suited for the study of space weather: The north magnetic pole is encompassed within its territory, and the auroral oval traverses its vast landmass from east to west. Magnetic field lines link the country directly to the outer magnetosphere. In light of this geographic suitability, it has been a Canadian tradition to install ground monitors to remotely sense the space above Canadian territory. The beginning of this tradition dates back to 1840, when Edward Sabine, a key figure in the “magnetic crusade” to establish magnetic observatories throughout the British Empire in the nineteenth century, founded the first Canadian magnetic observatory on what is now the campus of the University of Toronto, 27 years before the birth of Canada. This observatory, which later became the Toronto Magnetic and Meteorological Observatory, marked the beginning of the Canadian heritage of installing magnetic stations and other ground instruments in the years to come. This extensive network of ground-based measurement devices, coupled with space-based measurements in more modern times, has enabled Canadian researchers to contribute significantly to studies related to space weather.

  19. The Art and Science of Long-Range Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.

    2006-01-01

    Long-range space weather forecasts are akin to seasonal forecasts of terrestrial weather. We don t expect to forecast individual events but we do hope to forecast the underlying level of activity important for satellite operations and mission pl&g. Forecasting space weather conditions years or decades into the future has traditionally been based on empirical models of the solar cycle. Models for the shape of the cycle as a function of its amplitude become reliable once the amplitude is well determined - usually two to three years after minimum. Forecasting the amplitude of a cycle well before that time has been more of an art than a science - usually based on cycle statistics and trends. Recent developments in dynamo theory -the theory explaining the generation of the Sun s magnetic field and the solar activity cycle - have now produced models with predictive capabilities. Testing these models with historical sunspot cycle data indicates that these predictions may be highly reliable one, or even two, cycles into the future.

  20. Predicting and Mitigating Socioeconomic Impacts of Extreme Space Weather: Benefits of Improved Forecasts (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanekal, S. G.; Baker, D. N.

    2013-12-01

    Vulnerability of society to severe space weather is an issue of increasing worldwide concern. A notable example is that electric power networks connecting widely separated geographic areas may incur debilitating damage induced by geomagnetic storms. The conclusion of a recent National Research Council report was that harsh space weather events can cause tens of millions to many billions of dollars of damage to space and ground-based assets during major solar storms. The most extreme events could cause months-long power outages and could cost in excess of one trillion dollars. In this presentation, we discuss broad socioeconomic impacts of space weather and also discuss the immense potential benefits of improved space weather forecasts. Such forecasts would be based on continuous observations of disturbances on the Sun and would take advantage of our increased understanding of the Earth's space environmental conditions and the causative solar drivers. We consider scenarios of how such observation-based forecasts could be used most effectively by policy makers and technology management officials.

  1. Forecasting Space Weather in the Upper Atmosphere and Ionosphere (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solomon, S. C.

    2013-12-01

    The feasibility of performing meaningful forecasts of the state of the thermosphere and ionosphere depends on the time scales of interest. Whether accomplished using empirical models derived from climatological information, or using numerical models describing the physics and dynamics of the coupled system, the reality of any forecast is dependent on the specification of the initial state, and the knowledge of the parameters that will impact it in the future. The zero-time forecast, or nowcast, is eminently possible, and basic systems have been implemented operationally using data assimilation techniques. This is considerably more advanced with respect to the ionosphere, because there are more ionospheric data currently available. But a fully coupled thermosphere is crucial for accomplishing accurate ionospheric specification and forecast, because the ionosphere responds strongly to thermospheric drivers, and because the effects of changing thermospheric dynamics are persistent. The prospects for short term (less than an hour) forecasts are also good. The 30 to 90 minute delay between measurements near the Sun-Earth L1 saddle point, and the arrival of solar wind and interplanetary field perturbations at the magnetopause, can be exploited to predict the effects of geomagnetic disturbances on the thermosphere-ionosphere. Lower atmosphere meteorology fields are sufficiently known and change slowly on these time scales, as do solar irradiance drivers (except during flares) so the boundary conditions to full-physics numerical models can be specified. The initial state of the system can be effectively characterized by data assimilation models. Sophisticated physical models using efficient parallel algorithms are available. Therefore, there are no fundamental obstacles to implementation of short-term thermosphere-ionosphere forecasting, only programmatic or technical ones. On longer time scales, magnetospheric forecasting is contingent on meaningful prediction of the

  2. Weather assessment and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    Data management program activities centered around the analyses of selected far-term Office of Applications (OA) objectives, with the intent of determining if significant data-related problems would be encountered and if so what alternative solutions would be possible. Three far-term (1985 and beyond) OA objectives selected for analyses as having potential significant data problems were large-scale weather forecasting, local weather and severe storms forecasting, and global marine weather forecasting. An overview of general weather forecasting activities and their implications upon the ground based data system is provided. Selected topics were specifically oriented to the use of satellites.

  3. A New Tool for Forecasting Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, J. H.; Falconer, D.; Barghouty, A. F.; Khazanov, I.; Moore, R.

    2010-01-01

    This poster describes a tool that is designed to forecast solar drivers for severe space weather. Since most severe space weather is driven by Solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) - the strongest of these originate in active regions and are driven by the release of coronal free magnetic energy and There is a positive correlation between an active region's free magnetic energy and the likelihood of flare and CME production therefore we can use this positive correlation as the basis of our empirical space weather forecasting tool. The new tool takes a full disk Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) magnetogram, identifies strong magnetic field areas, identifies these with NOAA active regions, and measures a free-magnetic-energy proxy. It uses an empirically derived forecasting function to convert the free-magnetic-energy proxy to an expected event rate. It adds up the expected event rates from all active regions on the disk to forecast the expected rate and probability of each class of events -- X-class flares, X&M class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar particle events (SPEs).

  4. A space weather forecasting system with multiple satellites based on a self-recognizing network.

    PubMed

    Tokumitsu, Masahiro; Ishida, Yoshiteru

    2014-05-05

    This paper proposes a space weather forecasting system at geostationary orbit for high-energy electron flux (>2 MeV). The forecasting model involves multiple sensors on multiple satellites. The sensors interconnect and evaluate each other to predict future conditions at geostationary orbit. The proposed forecasting model is constructed using a dynamic relational network for sensor diagnosis and event monitoring. The sensors of the proposed model are located at different positions in space. The satellites for solar monitoring equip with monitoring devices for the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind speed. The satellites orbit near the Earth monitoring high-energy electron flux. We investigate forecasting for typical two examples by comparing the performance of two models with different numbers of sensors. We demonstrate the prediction by the proposed model against coronal mass ejections and a coronal hole. This paper aims to investigate a possibility of space weather forecasting based on the satellite network with in-situ sensing.

  5. November 2004 space weather events: Real-time observations and forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trichtchenko, L.; Zhukov, A.; van der Linden, R.; Stankov, S. M.; Jakowski, N.; StanisłAwska, I.; Juchnikowski, G.; Wilkinson, P.; Patterson, G.; Thomson, A. W. P.

    2007-06-01

    Space weather events with their solar origin and their distribution through the heliosphere affect the whole magnetosphere-ionosphere-Earth system. Their real-time monitoring and forecasting are important for science and technology. Here we discuss one of the largest space weather events of Solar Cycle 23, in November 2004, which was also one of the most difficult periods to forecast. Nine halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs), interacting on their way through the interplanetary medium and forming two geoeffective interplanetary structures, exemplify the complexity of the event. Real-time and quasi-real-time observations of the ground geomagnetic field show rapid and extensive expansion of the auroral oval to 55° in geomagnetic latitude accompanied by great variability of the ionosphere. Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) seen in ground networks, such as power grids and pipelines, were significant during the event, although no problems were reported. Forecasts of the CME propagation, global and local ground geomagnetic activity, and ionospheric parameters, issued by several regional warning centers, revealed certain deficiencies in predictions of the interplanetary characteristics of the CME, size of the geomagnetic disturbances, and complexity of the ionospheric variations produced by this event. This paper is a collective report based on the materials presented at the splinter session on November 2004 events during the first European Space Weather Week.

  6. Smooth Sailing for Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Through a cooperative venture with NASA's Stennis Space Center, WorldWinds, Inc., developed a unique weather and wave vector map using space-based radar satellite information and traditional weather observations. Called WorldWinds, the product provides accurate, near real-time, high-resolution weather forecasts. It was developed for commercial and scientific users. In addition to weather forecasting, the product's applications include maritime and terrestrial transportation, aviation operations, precision farming, offshore oil and gas operations, and coastal hazard response support. Target commercial markets include the operational maritime and aviation communities, oil and gas providers, and recreational yachting interests. Science applications include global long-term prediction and climate change, land-cover and land-use change, and natural hazard issues. Commercial airlines have expressed interest in the product, as it can provide forecasts over remote areas. WorldWinds, Inc., is currently providing its product to commercial weather outlets.

  7. Integration between solar and space science data for space weather forecast using web services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, S.

    2007-08-01

    As the technology develops, the opportunity that the human beings behave in space, and it is still understood that the solar activities (especially the solar flare) influence the airlines communication, the ship communication and the power generator of the electric power company, etc. Forecasting the effects of the solar activities is becoming very important because there is such a background. Our goal is that constructs the detailed model from the Sun to the magnetosphere of the earth and simulates the solar activities and the effects. We try to integrate the existing observational data including the ground observational data and satellite observational data using by web service technology as a base to construct the model. We introduce our activity to combine the solar and space science data in Japan. Methods Generally, it is difficult to develop the virtual common database, but web service makes interconnection among different databases comparatively easy. We try to connect some databases in the portal site. Each different data objects is aggregated to a common data object. We can develop more complex services. We use RELAX NG in order to develop these applications easily. We begin the trial of the interconnection among the solar and space science data in Japan. In the case of solar observational data, we find the activity such as VO, for example, VSO and EGSO, but space science data seems to be very complex. In addition to this, there is time lag that solar activity has an effect on the magnetosphere of the Earth. We discuss these characteristic in the data analysis between the solar and space data. This work was supported by the Grant-in-Aid for Creative Scientific Research `The Basic Study of Space Weather Prediction' (17GS0208) from the Ministry of Education, Science, Sports, Technology, and Culture of Japan

  8. Resilient Sensor Networks with Spatiotemporal Interpolation of Missing Sensors: An Example of Space Weather Forecasting by Multiple Satellites.

    PubMed

    Tokumitsu, Masahiro; Hasegawa, Keisuke; Ishida, Yoshiteru

    2016-04-15

    This paper attempts to construct a resilient sensor network model with an example of space weather forecasting. The proposed model is based on a dynamic relational network. Space weather forecasting is vital for a satellite operation because an operational team needs to make a decision for providing its satellite service. The proposed model is resilient to failures of sensors or missing data due to the satellite operation. In the proposed model, the missing data of a sensor is interpolated by other sensors associated. This paper demonstrates two examples of space weather forecasting that involves the missing observations in some test cases. In these examples, the sensor network for space weather forecasting continues a diagnosis by replacing faulted sensors with virtual ones. The demonstrations showed that the proposed model is resilient against sensor failures due to suspension of hardware failures or technical reasons.

  9. Resilient Sensor Networks with Spatiotemporal Interpolation of Missing Sensors: An Example of Space Weather Forecasting by Multiple Satellites

    PubMed Central

    Tokumitsu, Masahiro; Hasegawa, Keisuke; Ishida, Yoshiteru

    2016-01-01

    This paper attempts to construct a resilient sensor network model with an example of space weather forecasting. The proposed model is based on a dynamic relational network. Space weather forecasting is vital for a satellite operation because an operational team needs to make a decision for providing its satellite service. The proposed model is resilient to failures of sensors or missing data due to the satellite operation. In the proposed model, the missing data of a sensor is interpolated by other sensors associated. This paper demonstrates two examples of space weather forecasting that involves the missing observations in some test cases. In these examples, the sensor network for space weather forecasting continues a diagnosis by replacing faulted sensors with virtual ones. The demonstrations showed that the proposed model is resilient against sensor failures due to suspension of hardware failures or technical reasons. PMID:27092508

  10. Post Alpbach-summerschool project: CARRINGTON MISSION FOR CME DETECTION TO IMPROVE SPACE WEATHER FORECAST

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheucher, Markus; Urbar, Jaroslav; Musset, Sophie; Andersson, Viktor; Gini, Francesco; Gorski, Jedrzej; Jüstel, Peter; Kiefer, René; Lee, Arrow; Meskers, Arjan; Miles, Oscar; Perakis, Nikolas; Rußwurm, Michael; Scully, Stephen; Seifert, Bernhard; Sorba, Arianna

    2014-05-01

    The effects of solar activity, especially Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), on Earth- and satellite-based systems are well-known and can cause major damage to space-dependent infrastructure. The main problem in current space weather forecasting is the inability to determine necessary forecast parameters of CMEs and Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) early enough to react. We present the design for a novel space mission consisting of two spacecraft that is aimed to perform stereoscopic measurements on Earth-directed CMEs and in-situ measurements of CIRs. The magnetic field orientation and structure of CMEs will be measured close to the Sun, using spectro-polarimetry. Geoeffectiveness will be derived by remote sensing the CMEs magnetic field at 0.64AU from the Sun, determining the full magnetic field vector of a CME. This will be achieved by the novel concept of measuring its polarising effects on spacecraft to spacecraft laser beams based upon heterodyne interferometry. Overall structure and trajectory of CMEs will also be monitored by heliospheric imagers and in-situ plasma instruments. To achieve the mission objectives, the orbit is heliocentric at 1AU with a separation angle from the Earth of ±50°. The operational mission lifetime is 6 years with a proposed 6 year extension. If implemented, Carrington will serve as a forecast system which will significantly improve the minimum forecast time for the fastest CMEs with 2000 km/s, from 13 minutes based on current L1 satellites, to around 3 hours.

  11. Applying Forecast Models from the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gehmeyr, M.; Baker, D. N.; Millward, G.; Odstrcil, D.

    2007-12-01

    The Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) has developed three forecast models (FMs) for the Sun-Earth chain. They have been matured by various degrees toward the operational stage. The Sun-Earth FM suite comprises empirical and physical models: the Planetary Equivalent Amplitude (AP-FM), the Solar Wind (SW- FM), and the Geospace (GS-FM) models. We give a brief overview of these forecast models and touch briefly on the associated validation studies. We demonstrate the utility of the models: AP-FM supporting the operations of the AIM (Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere) mission soon after launch; SW-FM providing assistance with the interpretation of the STEREO beacon data; and GS-FM combining model and observed data to characterize the aurora borealis. We will then discuss space weather tools in a more general sense, point out where the current capabilities and shortcomings are, and conclude with a look forward to what areas need improvement to facilitate better real-time forecasts.

  12. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark

    2005-01-01

    The Applied Meteorology Unit developed a forecast tool that provides an assessment of the likelihood of local convective severe weather for the day in order to enhance protection of personnel and material assets of the 45th Space Wing Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), and Kennedy Space Center (KSC).

  13. Community Coordinated Modeling Center: Addressing Needs of Operational Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuznetsova, M.; Maddox, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Hesse, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Macneice, P.; Taktakishvili, A.; Berrios, D.; Chulaki, A.; Zheng, Y.; Mullinix, R.

    2012-01-01

    Models are key elements of space weather forecasting. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) hosts a broad range of state-of-the-art space weather models and enables access to complex models through an unmatched automated web-based runs-on-request system. Model output comparisons with observational data carried out by a large number of CCMC users open an unprecedented mechanism for extensive model testing and broad community feedback on model performance. The CCMC also evaluates model's prediction ability as an unbiased broker and supports operational model selections. The CCMC is organizing and leading a series of community-wide projects aiming to evaluate the current state of space weather modeling, to address challenges of model-data comparisons, and to define metrics for various user s needs and requirements. Many of CCMC models are continuously running in real-time. Over the years the CCMC acquired the unique experience in developing and maintaining real-time systems. CCMC staff expertise and trusted relations with model owners enable to keep up to date with rapid advances in model development. The information gleaned from the real-time calculations is tailored to specific mission needs. Model forecasts combined with data streams from NASA and other missions are integrated into an innovative configurable data analysis and dissemination system (http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov) that is accessible world-wide. The talk will review the latest progress and discuss opportunities for addressing operational space weather needs in innovative and collaborative ways.

  14. The scientific challenges to forecasting and nowcasting the solar origins of space weather (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schrijver, C. J.; Title, A. M.

    2013-12-01

    With the full-sphere continuous coverage of the Sun achieved by combining SDO and STEREO imagery comes the realization that solar activity is a manifestation of local processes that respond to long-range if not global influences. Numerical experiments provide insights into these couplings, as well as into the intricacies of destabilizations of field emerging into pre-existing configurations and evolving within the context of their dynamic surroundings. With these capabilities grows an understanding of the difficulties in forecasting of the solar origins of space weather: we need assimilative global non-potential field models, but our observational resources are too limited to meet that need.

  15. Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with

  16. Evaluation of Radiation Belt Space Weather Forecasts for Internal Charging Analyses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Minow, Joseph I.; Coffey, Victoria N.; Jun, Insoo; Garrett, Henry B.

    2007-01-01

    A variety of static electron radiation belt models, space weather prediction tools, and energetic electron datasets are used by spacecraft designers and operations support personnel as internal charging code inputs to evaluate electrostatic discharge risks in space systems due to exposure to relativistic electron environments. Evaluating the environment inputs is often accomplished by comparing whether the data set or forecast tool reliability predicts measured electron flux (or fluence over a given period) for some chosen period. While this technique is useful as a model metric, it does not provide the information necessary to evaluate whether short term deviances of the predicted flux is important in the charging evaluations. In this paper, we use a 1-D internal charging model to compute electric fields generated in insulating materials as a function of time when exposed to relativistic electrons in the Earth's magnetosphere. The resulting fields are assumed to represent the "true" electric fields and are compared with electric field values computed from relativistic electron environments derived from a variety of space environment and forecast tools. Deviances in predicted fields compared to the "true" fields which depend on insulator charging time constants will be evaluated as a potential metric for determining the importance of predicted and measured relativistic electron flux deviations over a range of time scales.

  17. Using Space Weather Forecast Tools for Understanding Planetary Magnetospheres: MESSENGER Experience Applied to MAVEN Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Daniel N.; Dewey, R. M.; Brain, D. A.; Jakosky, Bruce; Halekas, Jasper; Connerney, Jack; Odstrcil, Dusan; Mays, M. Leila; Luhmann, Janet

    2015-04-01

    The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL solar wind modeling tool has been used to calculate the values of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength (B), solar wind speed (V), density (n), ram pressure (~nV2), cross-magnetosphere electric field (VxB), Alfvén Mach number (MA), and other derived quantities of relevance for space weather purposes at Earth. Such parameters as solar wind dynamic pressure can be key for estimating the magnetopause standoff distance, as just one example. The interplanetary electric field drives many magnetospheric dynamical processes and can be compared with general magnetic activity indices and with the occurrence of energetic particle bursts within the Earth’s magnetosphere. Such parameters also serve as input to the global magnetohydrodynamic and kinetic magnetosphere models that are used to forecast magnetospheric and ionospheric processes. Such modeling done for Earth space weather forecasting has helped assess near-real-time magnetospheric behavior for MESSENGER at Mercury (as well as other mission analysis and Mercury ground-based observational campaigns). This solar-wind forcing knowledge has provided a crucial continuing step toward bringing heliospheric science expertise to bear on solar-planetary interaction studies. The experience gained from MESSENGER at Mercury is now being applied to the new observations from the MAVEN (Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution) mission at Mars. We compare the continuous WSA-ENLIL results derived from modeling to the MAVEN SWIA and MAG data from mid-December 2014 to the present time. This provides a broader contextual view of solar wind forcing at Mars and also allows a broader validation of the ENLIL model results throughout the inner heliosphere.

  18. The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations

    PubMed Central

    Posner, A; Hesse, M; St Cyr, O C

    2014-01-01

    Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations. Key Points Manuscript assesses current and near-future space weather assets Current assets unreliable for forecasting of severe geomagnetic storms Near-future assets will not improve the situation PMID:26213516

  19. Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting.

    PubMed

    Owens, M J; Horbury, T S; Wicks, R T; McGregor, S L; Savani, N P; Xiong, M

    2014-06-01

    Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind "noise," which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical "downscaling" of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme.

  20. SWIFTER - Space Weather Informatics, Forecasting, and Technology through Enabling Research and Virtual Organizations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaefer, R. K.; Morrison, D.; Paxton, L.; Holm, J.; Weiss, M.; Hsieh, S.

    2009-05-01

    SWIFTER will build a virtual organization to enable collaboration among research, military, and commercial communities to find new ways to understand, characterize, and forecast space weather to meet the needs of our technology based society. In this paper we discuss how knowledge is shared in organizations and how a virtual organization can be formed. A key element of a "virtual" organization is that it is a fluid collection of members that share some means of communicating relevant information among some of its members. The members also share ideas in evolution (such as analysis, new technologies, and predictive trending). As concepts mature they can be matured or discarded more quickly as the power of the network is brought to bear early and often. Space weather, the changes in the near-Earth space environment, is important to a wide range of users as well as the public. The public is interested in a variety of phenomena including meteors, solar flares, the aurora, noctilucent clouds and climate change. Industry focus tends to be on more concrete problems such as ground-induced currents in power lines and communications with aircraft in transpolar routes as well as geolocation (i.e. the use of GPS systems to precisely map a function to a position). Other government-oriented users service specialized communities who may be more or less unaware of the research and development upon which the forecasts or nowcasts rely for accuracy. The basic research community may be more or less unaware of the details of the applications, or potential applications of their research. The problem, then, is that each of these constituencies may share elements in common but there is no umbrella organization that ties them together, nor is there likely to be such an organization. Our goal in this paper is to outline a scheme for a virtual organization, delineate the functions of that VO and illustrate how it might be formed. We also will assess the barriers to knowledge transfer that

  1. Space Weather - Current Capabilities, Future Requirements, and the Path to Improved Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mann, Ian

    2016-07-01

    We present an overview of Space Weather activities and future opportunities including assessments of current status and capabilities, knowledge gaps, and future directions in relation to both observations and modeling. The review includes input from the scientific community including from SCOSTEP scientific discipline representatives (SDRs), COSPAR Main Scientific Organizers (MSOs), and SCOSTEP/VarSITI leaders. The presentation also draws on results from the recent activities related to the production of the COSPAR-ILWS Space Weather Roadmap "Understanding Space Weather to Shield Society" [Schrijver et al., Advances in Space Research 55, 2745 (2015) http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2015.03.023], from the activities related to the United Nations (UN) Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) actions in relation to the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space (LTS), and most recently from the newly formed and ongoing efforts of the UN COPUOS Expert Group on Space Weather.

  2. Weather Forecasting Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    Weather forecasters are usually very precise in reporting such conditions as temperature, wind velocity and humidity. They also provide exact information on barometric pressure at a given moment, and whether the barometer is "rising" or "falling"- but not how rapidly or how slowly it is rising or falling. Until now, there has not been available an instrument which measures precisely the current rate of change of barometric pressure. A meteorological instrument called a barograph traces the historical ups and downs of barometric pressure and plots a rising or falling curve, but, updated every three hours, it is only momentarily accurate at each updating.

  3. Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Owens, M J; Horbury, T S; Wicks, R T; McGregor, S L; Savani, N P; Xiong, M

    2014-01-01

    Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind “noise,” which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical “downscaling” of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme. Key Points Solar wind models must be downscaled in order to drive magnetospheric models Ensemble downscaling is more effective than deterministic downscaling The magnetosphere responds nonlinearly to small-scale solar wind fluctuations PMID:26213518

  4. The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Posner, Arik; Hesse, Michael; SaintCyr, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

  5. The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations.

    PubMed

    Posner, A; Hesse, M; St Cyr, O C

    2014-04-01

    Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

  6. The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Posner, A.; Hesse, M.; St. Cyr, O. C.

    2014-04-01

    Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

  7. Weather Forecasting Systems and Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mecikalski, John (Inventor); MacKenzie, Wayne M., Jr. (Inventor); Walker, John Robert (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    A weather forecasting system has weather forecasting logic that receives raw image data from a satellite. The raw image data has values indicative of light and radiance data from the Earth as measured by the satellite, and the weather forecasting logic processes such data to identify cumulus clouds within the satellite images. For each identified cumulus cloud, the weather forecasting logic applies interest field tests to determine a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming precipitation and/or lightning in the future within a certain time period. Based on such scores, the weather forecasting logic predicts in which geographic regions the identified cumulus clouds will produce precipitation and/or lighting within during the time period. Such predictions may then be used to provide a weather map thereby providing users with a graphical illustration of the areas predicted to be affected by precipitation within the time period.

  8. The Role of Twisted Magnetic Flux Tubes in Topological Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nightingale, R. W.

    2008-12-01

    tubes play in topological space weather forecasting. This work was supported by NASA under the TRACE contract NAS5-38099.

  9. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  10. The pioneers of weather forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballard, Susan

    2016-01-01

    In The Weather Experiment author Peter Moore takes us on a compelling journey through the early history of weather forecasting, bringing to life the personalities, lives and achievements of the men who put in place the building blocks required for forecasts to be possible.

  11. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  12. Deep Space Ka-band Link Management and the MRO Demonstration: Long-term Weather Statistics Versus Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davarian, Faramaz; Shambayati, Shervin; Slobin, Stephen

    2004-01-01

    During the last 40 years, deep space radio communication systems have experienced a move toward shorter wavelengths. In the 1960s a transition from L- to S-band occurred which was followed by a transition from S- to X-band in the 1970s. Both these transitions provided deep space links with wider bandwidths and improved radio metrics capability. Now, in the 2000s, a new change is taking place, namely a move to the Ka-band region of the radio frequency spectrum. Ka-band will soon replace X-band as the frequency of choice for deep space communications providing ample spectrum for the high data rate requirements of future missions. The low-noise receivers of deep space networks have a great need for link management techniques that can mitigate weather effects. In this paper, three approaches for managing Ka-band Earth-space links are investigated. The first approach uses aggregate annual statistics, the second one uses monthly statistics, and the third is based on the short-term forecasting of the local weather. An example of weather forecasting for Ka-band link performance prediction is presented. Furthermore, spacecraft commanding schemes suitable for Ka-band link management are investigated. Theses schemes will be demonstrated using NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) spacecraft in the 2007 to 2008 time period, and the demonstration findings will be reported in a future publication.

  13. From Predicting Solar Activity to Forecasting Space Weather: Practical Examples of Research-to-Operations and Operations-to-Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steenburgh, R. A.; Biesecker, D. A.; Millward, G. H.

    2014-02-01

    The successful transition of research to operations (R2O) and operations to research (O2R) requires, above all, interaction between the two communities. We explore the role that close interaction and ongoing communication played in the successful fielding of three separate developments: an observation platform, a numerical model, and a visualization and specification tool. Additionally, we will examine how these three pieces came together to revolutionize interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) arrival forecasts. A discussion of the importance of education and training in ensuring a positive outcome from R2O activity follows. We describe efforts by the meteorological community to make research results more accessible to forecasters and the applicability of these efforts to the transfer of space-weather research. We end with a forecaster "wish list" for R2O transitions. Ongoing, two-way communication between the research and operations communities is the thread connecting it all.

  14. Improving solar wind persistence forecasts: Removing transient space weather events, and using observations away from the Sun-Earth line

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohutova, Petra; Bocquet, François-Xavier; Henley, Edmund M.; Owens, Matthew J.

    2016-10-01

    This study demonstrates two significant ways of improving persistence forecasts of the solar wind, which exploit the relatively unchanging nature of the ambient solar wind to provide 27 day forecasts, when using data from the Lagrangian L1 point. Such forecasts are useful as a prediction tool for the ambient wind, and for benchmarking of solar wind models. We show that solar wind persistence forecasts can be improved by removing transient solar wind features such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Using CME indicators to automatically identify CME-contaminated periods in ACE data from 1998 to 2011, and replacing these with solar wind from a previous synodic rotation, persistence forecasts improve (relative to a baseline): skill scores for Bz, a crucial parameter for determining solar wind geoeffectiveness, improve by 7.7 percentage points when using a proton temperature-based indicator with good operational potential. We also show that persistence forecasts can be improved by using measurements away from L1, to reduce the requirement on coronal stability for an entire synodic period, at the cost of reduced lead time. Using STEREO-B data from 2007 to 2013 to create such a reduced lead time persistence forecast, we show that Bz skill scores improve by 17.1 percentage points relative to ACE. Finally, we report on implications for persistence forecasts from any future missions to the L5 Lagrangian point and on the successful operational implementation (in spring 2015) of the normal (ACE-based) and reduced lead time (STEREO-based) persistence forecasts in the Met Office's Space Weather Operations Centre, as well as plans for future improvements.

  15. Strategies to Forecasting Space Weather Events from Uncovering and Predicting Patterns of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field Inside Coronal Mass Ejections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jahn, Jorg-Micha; Elliott, H. A.

    The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) inside coronal mass ejections (CME) is a major factor in controlling terrestrial space weather events. Our ability to model, and thus predict, CME propagation is constantly improving. However, our ability to predict the detailed and relevant magnetic structure inside CMEs is not necessarily following behind at the same rate. Nev-ertheless, it is highly desirable to predict the IMF structure at the L1 point on intermediate timescales up to half a day ahead of time. In this presentation, we discuss how pattern recog-nition of at solar wind IMF data at the L1 point could be part of a forecast system for the IMF and terrestrial space weather events on these intermediate time scales. Our approach is to clas-sify the temporal patterns of the IMF inside CMEs at relevant time scales by classifying solar wind time series segments of various lengths using Kohonen Self-Organizing Maps. We present how these networks view the time history of CMEs passing over the L1 point. We discuss how this classification of temporal patterns can be used in predicting the future temporal develop-ment of the solar wind IMF in CMEs. Ultimately, our approach is geared towards enabling the development of a probability-driven space weather forecasting approach that combines at a minimum L1 in situ and solar remote observations, but is also open to (and very likely will require) model-based techniques.

  16. Forecasting the Weather.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bollinger, Richard

    1984-01-01

    Presents a computer program which predicts the weather based on student input of such weather data as wind direction and barometric pressure. Also provides procedures for several hands-on, weather-related activities. (JN)

  17. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

  18. Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Solar drivers of severe space weather can be predicted from line-of-sight magnetograms, via a free-energy proxy measured from the neutral lines. This can be done in near real time. In addition to depending strongly on the free magnetic energy, an active region's chance of having a major eruption depends strongly on other aspects of the evolving magnetic field (e.g., its complexity and flux emergence).

  19. GEM: Statistical weather forecasting procedure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, R. G.

    1983-01-01

    The objective of the Generalized Exponential Markov (GEM) Program was to develop a weather forecast guidance system that would: predict between 0 to 6 hours all elements in the airways observations; respond instantly to the latest observed conditions of the surface weather; process these observations at local sites on minicomputing equipment; exceed the accuracy of current persistence predictions at the shortest prediction of one hour and beyond; exceed the accuracy of current forecast model output statistics inside eight hours; and be capable of making predictions at one location for all locations where weather information is available.

  20. Using Forecasting to Teach Weather Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsubota, Y.; Takahashi, T.

    2009-09-01

    Weather affects our lives and hence, is a popular topic in daily conversations and in the media. Therefore, it is not only important to teach weather, but is also a good idea to use 'weather' as a topic in science teaching. Science education has two main objectives: to acquire scientific concepts and methods. Weather forecasting is an adequate theme to teach scientific methods because it is dependent on observation. However, it is not easy to forecast weather using only temporal observation. We need to know the tendency of 'weather change' via consecutive and/or continuous weather observation. Students will acquire scientific-observation skills through weather observation. Data-processing skills would be enhanced through a weather-forecasting contest. A contest should be announced within 5 days of school events, such as a school excursion and field day. Students submit their own weather forecast by gathering weather information through the internet, news paper and so on. A weather-forecasting contest compels the student to observe the weather more often. We currently have some different weather forecasts. For example, American weather-related companies such as ACCU weather and Weather Channel provide weather forecast for the many locations all over the world. Comparing these weather forecasting with actual weather, participants such as students could evaluate the differences between forecasted and actual temperatures. Participants will judge the best weather forecast based on the magnitude of the difference. Also, participants evaluate the 'hitting ratio' of each weather forecast. Students can learn elementary statistics by comparing various weather forecasts. We have developed our weather web-site that provides our own weather forecasting and observation. Students acquire science skills using our weather web-site. We will report our lessen plans and explain our weather web-site.

  1. Space Weather Services of Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, KiChang; Kim, Jae-Hun; Kim, Young Yun; Kwon, Yongki; Wi, Gwan-sik

    2016-07-01

    The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

  2. Space Weather Services of Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Park, S.; Kim, Y. Y.; Wi, G.

    2015-12-01

    The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

  3. New insights on short-term solar irradiance forecast for space weather applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vieira, L. A.; Dudok de Wit, T.; Balmaceda, L. A.; Dal Lago, A.; Da Silva, L. A.; Gonzalez, W. D.

    2013-12-01

    The conditions of the thermosphere, the ionosphere, the neutral atmosphere, and the oceans on time scales from days to millennia are highly dependent on the solar electromagnetic output, the solar irradiance. The development of physics-based solar irradiance models during the last decade improved significantly our understanding of the solar forcing on Earth's climate. These models are based on the assumption that most of the solar irradiance variability is related to the magnetic field structure of the Sun. Recently, these models were extended to allow short-term forecast (1 to 15 days) of the total and spectral solar irradiance. The extension of the irradiance models is based on solar surface magnetic flux models and/or artificial neural network models. Here, we discuss in details the irradiance forecast models based on observations of the solar surface magnetic field realized by the HMI instrument on board of SDO spacecraft. We constrained and validated the models by comparing the output of the models and observations of the solar irradiance made by instruments onboard The SORCE spacecraft. This study received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013, FP7-SPACE-2010-1) under the grant agreement nrs. 218816 (SOTERIA project, www.soteria-space.eu) and 261948 (ATMOP,www.atmop.eu), and by the CNPq/Brazil under the grant number 312488/2012-2. We also gratefully thank the instrument teams for making their data available.

  4. NASA Space Weather Center Services: Potential for Space Weather Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Hesse, M.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Space Weather Center's primary objective is to provide the latest space weather information and forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and its partners and to bring space weather knowledge to the public. At the same time, the tools and services it possesses can be invaluable for research purposes. Here we show how our archive and real-time modeling of space weather events can aid research in a variety of ways, with different classification criteria. We will list and discuss major CME events, major geomagnetic storms, and major SEP events that occurred during the years 2010 - 2012. Highlights of major tools/resources will be provided.

  5. The Los Alamos dynamic radiation environment assimilation model (DREAM) for space weather specification and forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Reeves, Geoffrey D; Friedel, Reiner H W; Chen, Yue; Koller, Josef; Henderson, Michael G

    2008-01-01

    The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to assess, quantify, and predict the hazards from the natural space environment and the anthropogenic environment produced by high altitude nuclear explosions (HANE). DREAM was initially developed as a basic research activity to understand and predict the dynamics of the Earth's Van Allen radiation belts. It uses Kalman filter techniques to assimilate data from space environment instruments with a physics-based model of the radiation belts. DREAM can assimilate data from a variety of types of instruments and data with various levels of resolution and fidelity by assigning appropriate uncertainties to the observations. Data from any spacecraft orbit can be assimilated but DREAM was designed to function with as few as two spacecraft inputs: one from geosynchronous orbit and one from GPS orbit. With those inputs, DREAM can be used to predict the environment at any satellite in any orbit whether space environment data are available in those orbits or not. Even with very limited data input and relatively simple physics models, DREAM specifies the space environment in the radiation belts to a high level of accuracy. DREAM has been extensively tested and evaluated as we transition from research to operations. We report here on one set of test results in which we predict the environment in a highly-elliptical polar orbit. We also discuss long-duration reanalysis for spacecraft design, using DREAM for real-time operations, and prospects for 1-week forecasts of the radiation belt environment.

  6. Addressing Metrics and Validation Needs for Space Weather Models, Tools and Forecasting Techniques at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuznetsova, Maria

    2016-07-01

    Systematic evaluation of space environment models and tools and confidence assessment of space weather forecasting techniques and procedures are critical for development and further improvements of operational space weather prediction capabilities. Quantifying the confidence and predictive accuracy of model calculations is a key information needed for making high-consequence decisions. The approach to the validation, uncertainty assessment and to the format of the metrics is strongly dependent on specific applications and end user needs. There is a need to understand which aspects of spatial and temporal characteristicsof space environment parameters are the most important for specific impacts on technological and biological systems. The presentation will review progress in on-going coordinated model validation activities and metrics studies organized and supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. We will focus on tasks associated with model-data comparisons, such as appropriate metrics selection for specific applications, preparation of observational data, sensitivity analysis of model outputs to input parameters, boundary conditions, modeling assumptions, adjustable parameters. We will discuss ideas for community-wide initiatives to build upon successes and to address challenges of metrics and validation activities, to develop guidelines and procedures to trace improvements over time and to pave a path forward.

  7. Kazakhstan Space Weather Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kryakunova, Olga

    2012-07-01

    Kazakhstan experimental complex is a center of experimental study of space weather. This complex is situated near Almaty, Kazakhstan and includes experimental setup for registration of cosmic ray intensity (neutron monitor) at altitude of 3340 m above sea level, geomagnetic observatory and setup for registration of solar flux density with frequency of 1 and 3 GHz with 1 second time resolution. Results of space environment monitoring in real time are accessible via Internet. This experimental information is used for space weather investigations and different cosmic ray effects. Almaty mountain cosmic ray station is one of the most suitable and sensitive stations for investigation and forecasting of the dangerous situations for satellites; for this reason Almaty cosmic ray station is included in the world-wide neutron monitor network for the real-time monitoring of the space weather conditions and European Database NMDB (www.nmdb.eu). All data are represented on the web-site of the Institute of Ionosphere (www.ionos.kz) in real time. Since July, 2006 the space environment prediction laboratory represents the forecast of geomagnetic activity every day on the same site (www.ionos.kz/?q=en/node/21).

  8. Progress toward forecasting of space weather effects on UHF SATCOM after Operation Anaconda

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelly, Michael A.; Comberiate, Joseph M.; Miller, Ethan S.; Paxton, Larry J.

    2014-10-01

    Space weather impacts on communications are often presented as a raison d'etre for studying space weather (e.g., Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society, 2013). Here we consider a communications outage during Operation Anaconda in Afghanistan that may have been related to ionospheric disturbances. Early military operations occurred during the peak of solar cycle 23 when ionospheric variability was enhanced. During Operation Anaconda, the Battle of Takur Ghar occurred at the summit of a 3191 m Afghan mountaintop on 4 March 2002 when the ionosphere was disturbed and could have affected UHF Satellite Communications (SATCOM). In this paper, we consider UHF SATCOM outages that occurred during repeated attempts to notify a Quick Reaction Force (QRF) on board an MH-47H Chinook to avoid a "hot" landing zone at the top of Takur Ghar. During a subsequent analysis of Operation Anaconda, these outages were attributed to poor performance of the UHF radios on the helicopters and to blockage by terrain. However, it is also possible that ionospheric anomalies together with multipath effects could have combined to decrease the signal-to-noise ratio of the communication links used by the QRF. A forensics study of Takur Ghar with data from the Global Ultraviolet Imager on the NASA Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics mission showed the presence of ionospheric bubbles (regions of depleted electron density) along the line of sight between the Chinook and the UHF communications satellites in geostationary orbit that could have impacted communications. The events of 4 March 2002 motivated us to develop the Mesoscale Ionospheric Simulation Testbed model, which can be used to improve warnings of potential UHF outages during future military operations.

  9. 14 CFR 135.213 - Weather reports and forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... shall use that of the U.S. National Weather Service, a source approved by the U.S. National Weather... specifications when, after investigation by the U.S. National Weather Service and the certificate-holding... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Weather reports and forecasts....

  10. 14 CFR 135.213 - Weather reports and forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... shall use that of the U.S. National Weather Service, a source approved by the U.S. National Weather... specifications when, after investigation by the U.S. National Weather Service and the certificate-holding... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Weather reports and forecasts....

  11. 14 CFR 135.213 - Weather reports and forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... shall use that of the U.S. National Weather Service, a source approved by the U.S. National Weather... specifications when, after investigation by the U.S. National Weather Service and the certificate-holding... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Weather reports and forecasts....

  12. 14 CFR 135.213 - Weather reports and forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... shall use that of the U.S. National Weather Service, a source approved by the U.S. National Weather... specifications when, after investigation by the U.S. National Weather Service and the certificate-holding... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Weather reports and forecasts....

  13. 14 CFR 135.213 - Weather reports and forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... shall use that of the U.S. National Weather Service, a source approved by the U.S. National Weather... specifications when, after investigation by the U.S. National Weather Service and the certificate-holding... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Weather reports and forecasts....

  14. Weather related continuity and completeness on Deep Space Ka-band links: statistics and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shambayati, Shervin

    2006-01-01

    In this paper the concept of link 'stability' as means of measuring the continuity of the link is introduced and through it, along with the distributions of 'good' periods and 'bad' periods, the performance of the proposed Ka-band link design method using both forecasting and long-term statistics has been analyzed. The results indicate that the proposed link design method has relatively good continuity and completeness characteristics even when only long-term statistics are used and that the continuity performance further improves when forecasting is employed. .

  15. Titanic Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2004-04-01

    New Detailed VLT Images of Saturn's Largest Moon Optimizing space missions Titan, the largest moon of Saturn was discovered by Dutch astronomer Christian Huygens in 1655 and certainly deserves its name. With a diameter of no less than 5,150 km, it is larger than Mercury and twice as large as Pluto. It is unique in having a hazy atmosphere of nitrogen, methane and oily hydrocarbons. Although it was explored in some detail by the NASA Voyager missions, many aspects of the atmosphere and surface still remain unknown. Thus, the existence of seasonal or diurnal phenomena, the presence of clouds, the surface composition and topography are still under debate. There have even been speculations that some kind of primitive life (now possibly extinct) may be found on Titan. Titan is the main target of the NASA/ESA Cassini/Huygens mission, launched in 1997 and scheduled to arrive at Saturn on July 1, 2004. The ESA Huygens probe is designed to enter the atmosphere of Titan, and to descend by parachute to the surface. Ground-based observations are essential to optimize the return of this space mission, because they will complement the information gained from space and add confidence to the interpretation of the data. Hence, the advent of the adaptive optics system NAOS-CONICA (NACO) [1] in combination with ESO's Very Large Telescope (VLT) at the Paranal Observatory in Chile now offers a unique opportunity to study the resolved disc of Titan with high sensitivity and increased spatial resolution. Adaptive Optics (AO) systems work by means of a computer-controlled deformable mirror that counteracts the image distortion induced by atmospheric turbulence. It is based on real-time optical corrections computed from image data obtained by a special camera at very high speed, many hundreds of times each second (see e.g. ESO Press Release 25/01 , ESO PR Photos 04a-c/02, ESO PR Photos 19a-c/02, ESO PR Photos 21a-c/02, ESO Press Release 17/02, and ESO Press Release 26/03 for earlier NACO

  16. An Overview of Scientific and Space Weather Results from the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) Mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pfaff, R.; de la Beaujardiere, O.; Hunton, D.; Heelis, R.; Earle, G.; Strauss, P.; Bernhardt, P.

    2012-01-01

    The Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) Mission of the Air Force Research Laboratory is described. C/NOFS science objectives may be organized into three categories: (1) to understand physical processes active in the background ionosphere and thermosphere in which plasma instabilities grow; (2) to identify mechanisms that trigger or quench the plasma irregularities responsible for signal degradation; and (3) to determine how the plasma irregularities affect the propagation of electromagnetic waves. The satellite was launched in April, 2008 into a low inclination (13 deg), elliptical (400 x 850 km) orbit. The satellite sensors measure the following parameters in situ: ambient and fluctuating electron densities, AC and DC electric and magnetic fields, ion drifts and large scale ion composition, ion and electron temperatures, and neutral winds. C/NOFS is also equipped with a GPS occultation receiver and a radio beacon. In addition to the satellite sensors, complementary ground-based measurements, theory, and advanced modeling techniques are also important parts of the mission. We report scientific and space weather highlights of the mission after nearly four years in orbit

  17. Observations of Heliospheric Faraday Rotation (FR) and Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) with the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR): Steps Towards Improving Space-Weather Forecasting Capabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bisi, M. M.; Fallows, R. A.; Sobey, C.; Eftekhari, T.; Jensen, E. A.; Jackson, B. V.; Yu, H. S.; Hick, P. P.; Odstrcil, D.; Tokumaru, M.

    2015-12-01

    The phenomenon of space weather - analogous to terrestrial weather which describes the changing pressure, temperature, wind, and humidity conditions on Earth - is essentially a description of the changes in velocity, density, magnetic field, high-energy particles, and radiation in the near-Earth space environment including the effects of such changes on the Earth's magnetosphere, radiation belts, ionosphere, and thermosphere. Space weather can be considered to have two main strands: (i) scientific research, and (ii) applications. The former is self-explanatory, but the latter covers operational aspects which includes its forecasting. Understanding and forecasting space weather in the near-Earth environment is vitally important to protecting our modern-day reliance (militarily and commercially) on satellites, global-communication and navigation networks, high-altitude air travel (radiation concerns particularly on polar routes), long-distance power/oil/gas lines and piping, and for any future human exploration of space to list but a few. Two ground-based radio-observing remote-sensing techniques that can aid our understanding and forecasting of heliospheric space weather are those of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and heliospheric Faraday rotation (FR). The LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR) is a next-generation 'software' radio telescope centered in The Netherlands with international stations spread across central and northwest Europe. For several years, scientific observations of IPS on LOFAR have been undertaken on a campaign basis and the experiment is now well developed. More recently, LOFAR has been used to attempt scientific heliospheric FR observations aimed at remotely sensing the magnetic field of the plasma traversing the inner heliosphere. We present our latest progress using these two radio heliospheric-imaging remote-sensing techniques including the use of three-dimensional (3-D) modeling and reconstruction techniques using other, additional data as input

  18. 3D Analysis of Remote-Sensed Heliospheric Data for Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, H. S.; Jackson, B. V.; Hick, P. P.; Buffington, A.; Bisi, M. M.; Odstrcil, D.; Hong, S.; Kim, J.; Yi, J.; Tokumaru, M.; Gonzalez-Esparza, A.

    2015-12-01

    The University of California, San Diego (UCSD) time-dependent iterative kinematic reconstruction technique has been used and expanded upon for over two decades. It currently provides some of the most accurate predictions and three-dimensional (3D) analyses of heliospheric solar-wind parameters now available using interplanetary scintillation (IPS) data. The parameters provided include reconstructions of velocity, density, and magnetic fields. Precise time-dependent results are obtained at any solar distance in the inner heliosphere using current Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (STELab), Nagoya University, Japan IPS data sets, but the reconstruction technique can also incorporate data from other IPS systems from around the world. With access using world IPS data systems, not only can predictions using the reconstruction technique be made without observation dead times due to poor longitude coverage or system outages, but the program can itself be used to standardize observations of IPS. Additionally, these analyses are now being exploited as inner-boundary values to drive an ENLIL 3D-MHD heliospheric model in real time. A major potential of this is that it will use the more realistic physics of 3D-MHD modeling to provide an automatic forecast of CMEs and corotating structures up to several days in advance of the event/features arriving at Earth, with or without involving coronagraph imagery or the necessity of magnetic fields being used to provide the background solar wind speeds.

  19. Operational Space Weather Activities in the US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berger, Thomas; Singer, Howard; Onsager, Terrance; Viereck, Rodney; Murtagh, William; Rutledge, Robert

    2016-07-01

    We review the current activities in the civil operational space weather forecasting enterprise of the United States. The NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center is the nation's official source of space weather watches, warnings, and alerts, working with partners in the Air Force as well as international operational forecast services to provide predictions, data, and products on a large variety of space weather phenomena and impacts. In October 2015, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released the National Space Weather Strategy (NSWS) and associated Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) that define how the nation will better forecast, mitigate, and respond to an extreme space weather event. The SWAP defines actions involving multiple federal agencies and mandates coordination and collaboration with academia, the private sector, and international bodies to, among other things, develop and sustain an operational space weather observing system; develop and deploy new models of space weather impacts to critical infrastructure systems; define new mechanisms for the transition of research models to operations and to ensure that the research community is supported for, and has access to, operational model upgrade paths; and to enhance fundamental understanding of space weather through support of research models and observations. The SWAP will guide significant aspects of space weather operational and research activities for the next decade, with opportunities to revisit the strategy in the coming years through the auspices of the National Science and Technology Council.

  20. Using DOE-ARM and Space-Based Assets to Assess the Quality of Air Force Weather 3D Cloud Analysis and Forecast Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nobis, T. E.

    2015-12-01

    Air Force Weather (AFW) has documented requirements for global cloud analysis and forecasting to support DoD missions around the world. To meet these needs, AFW utilizes a number of cloud products. Cloud analyses are constructed using 17 different near real time satellite sources. Products include analysis of the individual satellite transmissions at native satellite resolution and an hourly global merge of all 17 sources on a 24km grid. AFW has also recently started creation of a time delayed global cloud reanalysis to produce a 'best possible' analysis for climatology and verification purposes. Forecasted cloud products include global short-range cloud forecasts created using advection techniques as well as statistically post processed cloud forecast products derived from various global and regional numerical weather forecast models. All of these cloud products cover different spatial and temporal resolutions and are produced on a number of different grid projections. The longer term vision of AFW is to consolidate these various approaches into uniform global numerical weather modeling (NWM) system using advanced cloudy-data assimilation processes to construct the analysis and a licensed version of UKMO's Unified Model to produce the various cloud forecast products. In preparation for this evolution in cloud modeling support, AFW has started to aggressively benchmark the performance of their current capabilities. Cloud information collected from so called 'active' sensors on the ground at the DOE-ARM sites and from space by such instruments as CloudSat, CALIPSO and CATS are being utilized to characterize the performance of AFW products derived largely by passive means. The goal is to understand the performance of the 3D cloud analysis and forecast products of today to help shape the requirements and standards for the future NWM driven system.This presentation will present selected results from these benchmarking efforts and highlight insights and observations

  1. STEREO Space Weather and the Space Weather Beacon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Biesecker, D. A.; Webb, D F.; SaintCyr, O. C.

    2007-01-01

    The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) is first and foremost a solar and interplanetary research mission, with one of the natural applications being in the area of space weather. The obvious potential for space weather applications is so great that NOAA has worked to incorporate the real-time data into their forecast center as much as possible. A subset of the STEREO data will be continuously downlinked in a real-time broadcast mode, called the Space Weather Beacon. Within the research community there has been considerable interest in conducting space weather related research with STEREO. Some of this research is geared towards making an immediate impact while other work is still very much in the research domain. There are many areas where STEREO might contribute and we cannot predict where all the successes will come. Here we discuss how STEREO will contribute to space weather and many of the specific research projects proposed to address STEREO space weather issues. We also discuss some specific uses of the STEREO data in the NOAA Space Environment Center.

  2. Weather Forecaster Understanding of Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bol, A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Abshire, W. E.

    2013-12-01

    Weather forecasters, particularly those in broadcasting, are the primary conduit to the public for information on climate and climate change. However, many weather forecasters remain skeptical of model-based climate projections. To address this issue, The COMET Program developed an hour-long online lesson of how climate models work, targeting an audience of weather forecasters. The module draws on forecasters' pre-existing knowledge of weather, climate, and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In order to measure learning outcomes, quizzes were given before and after the lesson. Preliminary results show large learning gains. For all people that took both pre and post-tests (n=238), scores improved from 48% to 80%. Similar pre/post improvement occurred for National Weather Service employees (51% to 87%, n=22 ) and college faculty (50% to 90%, n=7). We believe these results indicate a fundamental misunderstanding among many weather forecasters of (1) the difference between weather and climate models, (2) how researchers use climate models, and (3) how they interpret model results. The quiz results indicate that efforts to educate the public about climate change need to include weather forecasters, a vital link between the research community and the general public.

  3. Space Weather - the Economic Case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bisi, M. M.; Gibbs, M.

    2015-12-01

    Following on from the UK Government's placement of space weather on it's National Risk Register, in 2011, and the Royal Academy of Engineering's study into the impacts of a severe space weather event, the next piece of key evidence, to underpin future investment decisions, is understanding the socio-economic impact of space weather This poster outlines a study, funded by the UK Space Agency, which will assess the socio-economic cost of space weather, both severe events, such as 1989 & a modern day repeat of the Carrington storm and also the cost of day-to-day impacts. The study will go on to estimate the cost benefit of forecasting and also investigate options for an operational L5 spacecraft mission and knowledge exchange activities with the South African Space Agency. The findings from the initial space weather socio-economic literature review will be presented along with other findings to date and sets out the tasks for the remainder of this programme of work.

  4. RECONSTRUCTING CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WITH COORDINATED IMAGING AND IN SITU OBSERVATIONS: GLOBAL STRUCTURE, KINEMATICS, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING

    SciTech Connect

    Liu Ying; Luhmann, Janet G.; Lin, Robert P.; Bale, Stuart D.; Thernisien, Arnaud; Vourlidas, Angelos; Davies, Jackie A.

    2010-10-20

    We reconstruct the global structure and kinematics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using coordinated imaging and in situ observations from multiple vantage points. A forward modeling technique, which assumes a rope-like morphology for CMEs, is used to determine the global structure (including orientation and propagation direction) from coronagraph observations. We reconstruct the corresponding structure from in situ measurements at 1 AU with the Grad-Shafranov method, which gives the flux-rope orientation, cross section, and a rough knowledge of the propagation direction. CME kinematics (propagation direction and radial distance) during the transit from the Sun to 1 AU are studied with a geometric triangulation technique, which provides an unambiguous association between solar observations and in situ signatures; a track fitting approach is invoked when data are available from only one spacecraft. We show how the results obtained from imaging and in situ data can be compared by applying these methods to the 2007 November 14-16 and 2008 December 12 CMEs. This merged imaging and in situ study shows important consequences and implications for CME research as well as space weather forecasting: (1) CME propagation directions can be determined to a relatively good precision as shown by the consistency between different methods; (2) the geometric triangulation technique shows a promising capability to link solar observations with corresponding in situ signatures at 1 AU and to predict CME arrival at the Earth; (3) the flux rope within CMEs, which has the most hazardous southward magnetic field, cannot be imaged at large distances due to expansion; (4) the flux-rope orientation derived from in situ measurements at 1 AU may have a large deviation from that determined by coronagraph image modeling; and (5) we find, for the first time, that CMEs undergo a westward migration with respect to the Sun-Earth line at their acceleration phase, which we suggest is a universal

  5. Cosmic rays: Space Weather Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agarwal Mishra, Rekha; Mishra, Rajesh Kumar

    The concept of Space Weather was launched before a decade to describe the short-term variations in the different form of solar ac-tivity and their effect in the near Earth environ-ment. Space weather affects the Earth's atmos-phere in many ways and through various phe-nomena. Among them, geomagnetic storms and the variability of the galactic cosmic ray flux be-long to the most important ones as for the lower atmosphere. We have performed superposed ep-och analysis using hourly neutron monitor data for three different neutron-monitoring stations of different cut off rigidity as a measure of cosmic ray intensity. In the present study for superposed epoch analysis the time of occurrence of CMEs are defined as key time (zero or epoch hour/day). It is noteworthy that the use of cosmic ray data in space weather research plays a key role for its prediction. We have studied the cosmic ray, geo-magnetic and interplanetary plasma/field data to understand the physical mechanism responsible for Forbush decrease and geomagnetic storm that can be used as a signature to forecast space weather. Keywords: Space weather, cosmic ray, geomag-netic storm, forbush decrease

  6. School Science Inspired by Improving Weather Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reid, Heather; Renfrew, Ian A.; Vaughan, Geraint

    2014-01-01

    High winds and heavy rain are regular features of the British weather, and forecasting these events accurately is a major priority for the Met Office and other forecast providers. This is the challenge facing DIAMET, a project involving university groups from Manchester, Leeds, Reading, and East Anglia, together with the Met Office. DIAMET is part…

  7. Challenges in Teaching Space Physics to Different Target Groups From Space Weather Forecasters to Heavy-weight Theorists

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koskinen, H. E.

    2008-12-01

    Plasma physics as the backbone of space physics is difficult and thus the space physics students need to have strong foundations in general physics, in particular in classical electrodynamics and thermodynamics, and master the basic mathematical tools for physicists. In many universities the number of students specializing in space physics at Master's and Doctoral levels is rather small and the students may have quite different preferences ranging from experimental approach to hard-core space plasma theory. This poses challenges in building up a study program that has both the variety and depth needed to motivate the best students to choose this field. At the University of Helsinki we require all beginning space physics students, regardless whether they enter the field as Master's or Doctoral degree students, to take a one-semester package consisting of plasma physics and its space applications. However, some compromises are necessary. For example, it is not at all clear, how thoroughly Landau damping should be taught at the first run or how deeply should the intricacies of collisionless reconnection be discussed. In both cases we have left the details to an optional course in advanced space physics, even with the risk that the student's appreciation of, e.g., reconnection may remain at the level of a magic wand. For learning experimental work, data analysis or computer simulations we have actively pursued arrangements for the Master's degree students to get a summer employments in active research groups, which usually lead to the Master's theses. All doctoral students are members of research groups and participate in experimental work, data analysis, simulation studies or theory development, or any combination of these. We emphasize strongly "learning by doing" all the way from the weekly home exercises during the lecture courses to the PhD theses which in Finland consist typically of 4-6 peer-reviewed articles with a comprehensive introductory part.

  8. Space Weathering of Rocks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noble, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    Space weathering discussions have generally centered around soils but exposed rocks will also incur the effects of weathering. On the Moon, rocks make up only a very small percentage of the exposed surface and areas where rocks are exposed, like central peaks, are often among the least space weathered regions we find in remote sensing data. However, our studies of weathered Ap 17 rocks 76015 and 76237 show that significant amounts of weathering products can build up on rock surfaces. Because rocks have much longer surface lifetimes than an individual soil grain, and thus record a longer history of exposure, we can study these products to gain a deeper perspective on the weathering process and better assess the relative impo!1ance of various weathering components on the Moon. In contrast to the lunar case, on small asteroids, like Itokowa, rocks make up a large fraction of the exposed surface. Results from the Hayabusa spacecraft at Itokowa suggest that while the low gravity does not allow for the development of a mature regolith, weathering patinas can and do develop on rock surfaces, in fact, the rocky surfaces were seen to be darker and appear spectrally more weathered than regions with finer materials. To explore how weathering of asteroidal rocks may differ from lunar, a set of ordinary chondrite meteorites (H, L, and LL) which have been subjected to artificial space weathering by nanopulse laser were examined by TEM. NpFe(sup 0) bearing glasses were ubiquitous in both the naturally-weathered lunar and the artificially-weathered meteorite samples.

  9. Toward a Space Weather Virtual Organization (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paxton, L. J.; Holm, J. M.; Schaefer, R. K.; Weiss, M.

    2009-12-01

    On the 150th anniversary of the Carrington Event, it behooves us to reflect upon the impact of space weather on our technology-intensive, communications-driven, socitey. Over the period since the last solar maximum in 2001, the commercial, defense department, and other national entities have become increasingly dependent on the electronic command, control, & communication systems that are vulnerable to Space Weather events. There has not been a concomitant increase in our ability to reliably predict space weather nor in our ability to separate natural effects from human ones. Now we need to quickly gear up space situational awareness capability in time for the next solar max predicted to occur in about 3-4 years. Unfortunately, space weather expertise is spread over institutions and academic disciplines and communication between space weather forecasters, forecast users, and the research community is poor. We would like to set up a demonstration space weather virtual organization to find a more efficient way to communicate and manage knowledge to ensure the operational community can get actionable information in a timely manner. We call this system concept SWIFTER-ACTION (Space Weather Informatics, Forecasting, and Technology through Enabling Research - Accessibility, Content, & Timely Information On the Network.) In this paper we provide an overview of the issues that must be addressed in order to transform data into knowledge that enables action.

  10. Weather forecasting support for AASE-2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Forbes, Gregory S.

    1992-01-01

    The AFEAS Contract and NASA Grant were awarded to Penn State in order to obtain real-time weather forecasting support for the NASA AASE-II Project, which was conducted between October 1991 and March 1992. Because of the special weather sensitivities of the NASA ER-2 aircraft, AASE-II planners felt that public weather forecasts issued by the National Weather Service would not be adequate for mission planning purposes. A likely consequence of resorting to that medium would have been that scientists would have had to be at work by 4 AM day after day in the hope that the aircraft could fly, only to be frustrated by a great number of 'scrubbed' missions. Thus, the Pennsylvania State University was contracted to provide real-time weather support to the AASE-II mission.

  11. National Weather Service Forecast Reference Evapotranspiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osborne, H. D.; Palmer, C. K.; Krone-Davis, P.; Melton, F. S.; Hobbins, M.

    2013-12-01

    The National Weather Service (NWS), Weather Forecasting Offices (WFOs) are producing daily reference evapotranspiration (ETrc) forecasts or FRET across the Western Region and in other selected locations since 2009, using the Penman - Monteith Reference Evapotranspiration equation for a short canopy (12 cm grasses), adopted by the Environmental Water Resources Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE-EWRI, 2004). The sensitivity of these daily calculations to fluctuations in temperatures, humidity, winds, and sky cover allows forecasters with knowledge of local terrain and weather patterns to better forecast in the ETrc inputs. The daily FRET product then evolved into a suite of products, including a weekly ETrc forecast for better water planning and a tabular point forecast for easy ingest into local water management-models. The ETrc forecast product suite allows water managers, the agricultural community, and the public to make more informed water-use decisions. These products permit operational planning, especially with the impending drought across much of the West. For example, the California Department of Water Resources not only ingests the FRET into their soil moisture models, but uses the FRET calculations when determining the reservoir releases in the Sacramento and American Rivers. We will also focus on the expansion of FRET verification, which compares the daily FRET to the observations of ETo from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) across California's Central Valley for the 2012 water year.

  12. Weather forecasting based on hybrid neural model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saba, Tanzila; Rehman, Amjad; AlGhamdi, Jarallah S.

    2017-02-01

    Making deductions and expectations about climate has been a challenge all through mankind's history. Challenges with exact meteorological directions assist to foresee and handle problems well in time. Different strategies have been investigated using various machine learning techniques in reported forecasting systems. Current research investigates climate as a major challenge for machine information mining and deduction. Accordingly, this paper presents a hybrid neural model (MLP and RBF) to enhance the accuracy of weather forecasting. Proposed hybrid model ensure precise forecasting due to the specialty of climate anticipating frameworks. The study concentrates on the data representing Saudi Arabia weather forecasting. The main input features employed to train individual and hybrid neural networks that include average dew point, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, average relative moistness, precipitation, normal wind speed, high wind speed and average cloudiness. The output layer composed of two neurons to represent rainy and dry weathers. Moreover, trial and error approach is adopted to select an appropriate number of inputs to the hybrid neural network. Correlation coefficient, RMSE and scatter index are the standard yard sticks adopted for forecast accuracy measurement. On individual standing MLP forecasting results are better than RBF, however, the proposed simplified hybrid neural model comes out with better forecasting accuracy as compared to both individual networks. Additionally, results are better than reported in the state of art, using a simple neural structure that reduces training time and complexity.

  13. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  14. News and Views: Transit events and resources; HST to use transit to probe venusian atmosphere; Now, the space weather forecast; Astronomy writing prize

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2012-06-01

    TRANSIT Early risers in the UK have the opportunity to see the final stages of the last transit of Venus for more than a century. TRANSIT Researchers interested in the atmosphere of Venus will be using the Hubble Space Telescope and the Moon to examine sunlight passing through the atmosphere during the transit of Venus this month. The technique is the same as that used to determine atmospheric constituents of transiting exoplanets. The Met Office is expanding its services to include operational space-weather forecasts for the UK, working with the research community to expand existing climate models. Further collaborative work will apply the enhanced model to extrasolar planets. The ESO and the STFC are organizing a Europe-wide competition for the very best in astronomy journalism in print, online or broadcast. The winner gets a trip to ESO's Very Large Telescope in Chile.

  15. Space Weather Workshop

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gallagher, D. L.

    2004-01-01

    This workshop will focus on what space weather is about and its impact on society. An overall picture will be "painted" describing the Sun's influence through the solar wind on the near-Earth space environment, including the aurora, killer electrons at geosynchronous orbit, million ampere electric currents through the ionosphere and along magnetic field lines, and the generation of giga-Watts of natural radio waves. Reference material in the form of Internet sites will be provided so that teachers can discuss space weather in the classroom and enable students to learn more about this topic.

  16. Visually Comparing Weather Features in Forecasts.

    PubMed

    Quinan, P Samuel; Meyer, Miriah

    2016-01-01

    Meteorologists process and analyze weather forecasts using visualization in order to examine the behaviors of and relationships among weather features. In this design study conducted with meteorologists in decision support roles, we identified and attempted to address two significant common challenges in weather visualization: the employment of inconsistent and often ineffective visual encoding practices across a wide range of visualizations, and a lack of support for directly visualizing how different weather features relate across an ensemble of possible forecast outcomes. In this work, we present a characterization of the problems and data associated with meteorological forecasting, we propose a set of informed default encoding choices that integrate existing meteorological conventions with effective visualization practice, and we extend a set of techniques as an initial step toward directly visualizing the interactions of multiple features over an ensemble forecast. We discuss the integration of these contributions into a functional prototype tool, and also reflect on the many practical challenges that arise when working with weather data.

  17. NASA GSFC Space Weather Center - Innovative Space Weather Dissemination: Web-Interfaces, Mobile Applications, and More

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maddox, Marlo; Zheng, Yihua; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Lee, Hyesook; Chulaki, Anna; Hesse, Michael; Mullinix, Richard; Berrios, David

    2012-01-01

    The NASA GSFC Space Weather Center (http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov) is committed to providing forecasts, alerts, research, and educational support to address NASA's space weather needs - in addition to the needs of the general space weather community. We provide a host of services including spacecraft anomaly resolution, historical impact analysis, real-time monitoring and forecasting, custom space weather alerts and products, weekly summaries and reports, and most recently - video casts. There are many challenges in providing accurate descriptions of past, present, and expected space weather events - and the Space Weather Center at NASA GSFC employs several innovative solutions to provide access to a comprehensive collection of both observational data, as well as space weather model/simulation data. We'll describe the challenges we've faced with managing hundreds of data streams, running models in real-time, data storage, and data dissemination. We'll also highlight several systems and tools that are utilized by the Space Weather Center in our daily operations, all of which are available to the general community as well. These systems and services include a web-based application called the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov), two mobile space weather applications for both IOS and Android devices, an external API for web-service style access to data, google earth compatible data products, and a downloadable client-based visualization tool.

  18. Planetary Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grande, M.

    2012-04-01

    Invited Talk - Space weather at other planets While discussion of space weather effects has so far largely been confined to the near-Earth environment, there are significant present and future applications to the locations beyond, and to other planets. Most obviously, perhaps, are the radiation hazards experienced by astronauts on the way to, and on the surface of, the Moon and Mars. Indeed, the environment experienced by planetary spacecraft in transit and at their destinations is of course critical to their design and successful operation. The case of forthcoming missions to Jupiter and Europa is an exreme example. Moreover, such craft can provide information which in turn increases our understanding of geospace. Indeed, space weather may be a significant factor in the habitability of other solar system and extrasolar planets, and the ability of life to travel between them.

  19. Tomorrow's Forecast: Oceans and Weather.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smigielski, Alan

    1995-01-01

    This issue of "Art to Zoo" focuses on weather and climate and is tied to the traveling exhibition Ocean Planet from the Smithsonian's National Museum of Natural History. The lessons encourage students to think about the profound influence the oceans have on planetary climate and life on earth. Sections of the lesson plan include: (1)…

  20. Towards a National Space Weather Predictive Capability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fox, N. J.; Ryschkewitsch, M. G.; Merkin, V. G.; Stephens, G. K.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Barnes, R. J.; Anderson, B. J.; Paxton, L. J.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Kelly, M. A.; Berger, T. E.; Bonadonna, L. C. M. F.; Hesse, M.; Sharma, S.

    2015-12-01

    National needs in the area of space weather informational and predictive tools are growing rapidly. Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socio-economic losses and impacts on our security. Future space exploration and most modern human endeavors will require major advances in physical understanding and improved transition of space research to operations. At present, only a small fraction of the latest research and development results from NASA, NOAA, NSF and DoD investments are being used to improve space weather forecasting and to develop operational tools. The power of modern research and space weather model development needs to be better utilized to enable comprehensive, timely, and accurate operational space weather tools. The mere production of space weather information is not sufficient to address the needs of those who are affected by space weather. A coordinated effort is required to support research-to-applications transition efforts and to develop the tools required those who rely on this information. In this presentation we will review the space weather system developed for the Van Allen Probes mission, together with other datasets, tools and models that have resulted from research by scientists at JHU/APL. We will look at how these, and results from future missions such as Solar Probe Plus, could be applied to support space weather applications in coordination with other community assets and capabilities.

  1. Using Satellite Data in Weather Forecasting: I

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Suggs, Ronnie J.; Lecue, Juan M.

    2006-01-01

    The GOES Product Generation System (GPGS) is a set of computer codes and scripts that enable the assimilation of real-time Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data into regional-weather-forecasting mathematical models. The GPGS can be used to derive such geophysical parameters as land surface temperature, the amount of precipitable water, the degree of cloud cover, the surface albedo, and the amount of insolation from satellite measurements of radiant energy emitted by the Earth and its atmosphere. GPGS incorporates a priori information (initial guesses of thermodynamic parameters of the atmosphere) and radiometric measurements from the geostationary operational environmental satellites along with mathematical models of physical principles that govern the transfer of energy in the atmosphere. GPGS solves the radiative-transfer equation and provides the resulting data products in formats suitable for use by weather-forecasting computer programs. The data-assimilation capability afforded by GPGS offers the potential to improve local weather forecasts ranging from 3 hours to 2 days - especially with respect to temperature, humidity, cloud cover, and the probability of precipitation. The improvements afforded by GPGS could be of interest to news media, utility companies, and other organizations that utilize regional weather forecasts.

  2. The Quest for the Perfect Weather Forecaster

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kahl, Jonathan; Horwitz, Kevin; Berg, Craig; Gruhl, Mary

    2004-01-01

    It is said that meteorology is the only profession where a person can be wrong half the time and still keep his or her job. The truth is not quite so bleak, but one can still ask, "Just how accurate are weather forecasters, anyway?" This article presents two projects for middle level students to investigate this issue in a hands-on,…

  3. CCMC: Serving research and space weather communities with unique space weather services, innovative tools and resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Maddox, Marlo

    2015-04-01

    With the addition of Space Weather Research Center (a sub-team within CCMC) in 2010 to address NASA’s own space weather needs, CCMC has become a unique entity that not only facilitates research through providing access to the state-of-the-art space science and space weather models, but also plays a critical role in providing unique space weather services to NASA robotic missions, developing innovative tools and transitioning research to operations via user feedback. With scientists, forecasters and software developers working together within one team, through close and direct connection with space weather customers and trusted relationship with model developers, CCMC is flexible, nimble and effective to meet customer needs. In this presentation, we highlight a few unique aspects of CCMC/SWRC’s space weather services, such as addressing space weather throughout the solar system, pushing the frontier of space weather forecasting via the ensemble approach, providing direct personnel and tool support for spacecraft anomaly resolution, prompting development of multi-purpose tools and knowledge bases, and educating and engaging the next generation of space weather scientists.

  4. Adaptation of Mesoscale Weather Models to Local Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manobianco, John T.; Taylor, Gregory E.; Case, Jonathan L.; Dianic, Allan V.; Wheeler, Mark W.; Zack, John W.; Nutter, Paul A.

    2003-01-01

    Methodologies have been developed for (1) configuring mesoscale numerical weather-prediction models for execution on high-performance computer workstations to make short-range weather forecasts for the vicinity of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and (2) evaluating the performances of the models as configured. These methodologies have been implemented as part of a continuing effort to improve weather forecasting in support of operations of the U.S. space program. The models, methodologies, and results of the evaluations also have potential value for commercial users who could benefit from tailoring their operations and/or marketing strategies based on accurate predictions of local weather. More specifically, the purpose of developing the methodologies for configuring the models to run on computers at KSC and CCAFS is to provide accurate forecasts of winds, temperature, and such specific thunderstorm-related phenomena as lightning and precipitation. The purpose of developing the evaluation methodologies is to maximize the utility of the models by providing users with assessments of the capabilities and limitations of the models. The models used in this effort thus far include the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model ( Eta for short). The configuration of the MASS and RAMS is designed to run the models at very high spatial resolution and incorporate local data to resolve fine-scale weather features. Model preprocessors were modified to incorporate surface, ship, buoy, and rawinsonde data as well as data from local wind towers, wind profilers, and conventional or Doppler radars. The overall evaluation of the MASS, Eta, and RAMS was designed to assess the utility of these mesoscale models for satisfying the weather-forecasting needs of the U.S. space program. The evaluation methodology includes

  5. Weather forecasting with open source software

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rautenhaus, Marc; Dörnbrack, Andreas

    2013-04-01

    To forecast the weather situation during aircraft-based atmospheric field campaigns, we employ a tool chain of existing and self-developed open source software tools and open standards. Of particular value are the Python programming language with its extension libraries NumPy, SciPy, PyQt4, Matplotlib and the basemap toolkit, the NetCDF standard with the Climate and Forecast (CF) Metadata conventions, and the Open Geospatial Consortium Web Map Service standard. These open source libraries and open standards helped to implement the "Mission Support System", a Web Map Service based tool to support weather forecasting and flight planning during field campaigns. The tool has been implemented in Python and has also been released as open source (Rautenhaus et al., Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 55-71, 2012). In this presentation we discuss the usage of free and open source software for weather forecasting in the context of research flight planning, and highlight how the field campaign work benefits from using open source tools and open standards.

  6. Space Weather Products at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Maddox, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Berrios, D.; MacNeice, P.

    2010-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second CCMC activity is to support Space Weather forecasting at national Space Weather Forecasting Centers. This second activity involves model evaluations, model transitions to operations, and the development of space weather forecasting tools. Owing to the pace of development in the science community, new model capabilities emerge frequently. Consequently, space weather products and tools involve not only increased validity, but often entirely new capabilities. This presentation will review the present state of space weather tools as well as point out emerging future capabilities.

  7. Activities of NICT space weather project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murata, Ken T.; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Watari, Shinichi; Shinagawa, Hiroyuki; Ishii, Mamoru

    NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar

  8. Visualizing Uncertainty for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting based on Reforecast Analogs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pelorosso, Leandro; Diehl, Alexandra; Matković, Krešimir; Delrieux, Claudio; Ruiz, Juan; Gröeller, M. Eduard; Bruckner, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    Numerical weather forecasts are prone to uncertainty coming from inaccuracies in the initial and boundary conditions and lack of precision in numerical models. Ensemble of forecasts partially addresses these problems by considering several runs of the numerical model. Each forecast is generated with different initial and boundary conditions and different model configurations [GR05]. The ensembles can be expressed as probabilistic forecasts, which have proven to be very effective in the decision-making processes [DE06]. The ensemble of forecasts represents only some of the possible future atmospheric states, usually underestimating the degree of uncertainty in the predictions [KAL03, PH06]. Hamill and Whitaker [HW06] introduced the "Reforecast Analog Regression" (RAR) technique to overcome the limitations of ensemble forecasting. This technique produces probabilistic predictions based on the analysis of historical forecasts and observations. Visual analytics provides tools for processing, visualizing, and exploring data to get new insights and discover hidden information patterns in an interactive exchange between the user and the application [KMS08]. In this work, we introduce Albero, a visual analytics solution for probabilistic weather forecasting based on the RAR technique. Albero targets at least two different type of users: "forecasters", who are meteorologists working in operational weather forecasting and "researchers", who work in the construction of numerical prediction models. Albero is an efficient tool for analyzing precipitation forecasts, allowing forecasters to make and communicate quick decisions. Our solution facilitates the analysis of a set of probabilistic forecasts, associated statistical data, observations and uncertainty. A dashboard with small-multiples of probabilistic forecasts allows the forecasters to analyze at a glance the distribution of probabilities as a function of time, space, and magnitude. It provides the user with a more

  9. Towards a National Space Weather Predictive Capability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fox, N. J.; Lindstrom, K. L.; Ryschkewitsch, M. G.; Anderson, B. J.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Merkin, V. G.; Kelly, M. A.; Miller, E. S.; Sitnov, M. I.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Erlandson, R. E.; Barnes, R. J.; Paxton, L. J.; Sotirelis, T.; Stephens, G.; Comberiate, J.

    2014-12-01

    National needs in the area of space weather informational and predictive tools are growing rapidly. Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socio-economic losses and impacts on our security. Future space exploration and most modern human endeavors will require major advances in physical understanding and improved transition of space research to operations. At present, only a small fraction of the latest research and development results from NASA, NOAA, NSF and DoD investments are being used to improve space weather forecasting and to develop operational tools. The power of modern research and space weather model development needs to be better utilized to enable comprehensive, timely, and accurate operational space weather tools. The mere production of space weather information is not sufficient to address the needs of those who are affected by space weather. A coordinated effort is required to support research-to-applications transition efforts and to develop the tools required those who rely on this information. In this presentation we will review datasets, tools and models that have resulted from research by scientists at JHU/APL, and examine how they could be applied to support space weather applications in coordination with other community assets and capabilities.

  10. Pilot based frameworks for Weather Research Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganapathi, Dinesh Prasanth

    The Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) domain consists of complex workflows that demand the use of Distributed Computing Infrastructure (DCI). Weather forecasting requires that weather researchers use different set of initial conditions and one or a combination of physics models on the same set of input data. For these type of simulations an ensemble based computing approach becomes imperative. Most DCIs have local job-schedulers that have no smart way of dealing with the execution of an ensemble type of computational problem as the job-schedulers are built to cater to the bare essentials of resource allocation. This means the weather scientists have to submit multiple jobs to the job-scheduler. In this dissertation we use Pilot-Job based tools to decouple work-load submission and resource allocation therefore streamlining the complex workflows in Weather Research and Forecasting domain and reduce their overall time to completion. We also achieve location independent job execution, data movement, placement and processing. Next, we create the necessary enablers to run an ensemble of tasks bearing the capability to run on multiple heterogeneous distributed computing resources there by creating the opportunity to minimize the overall time consumed in running the models. Our experiments show that the tools developed exhibit very good, strong and weak scaling characteristics. These results bear the potential to change the way weather researchers are submitting traditional WRF jobs to the DCIs by giving them a powerful weapon in their arsenal that can exploit the combined power of various heterogeneous DCIs that could otherwise be difficult to harness owing to interoperability issues.

  11. How some nonmeteorological professionals view meteorology and weather forecasting.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scoggins, J. R.; Vaughan, W. W.

    1971-01-01

    The results of a questionnaire designed to gather information on how nonmeteorological scientists and engineers view meteorology and weather forecasting are summarized in this paper. The respondents were from two organizations, Texas A & M University and NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, the first representing the academic community and the latter the engineering community. While there were some differences between the groups, in most cases answers expressed in the opinionnaire by the two groups were essentially identical. The results revealed the following: Approximately three-fourths of the respondents use meteorological data and/or weather forecasts in their profession; the meaning of probability forecasts is very unclear with only 13% indicating the correct answer; television is the main source of weather information; approximately half of the respondents had never heard of the Global Atmospheric Research Program; and the opinion was almost unanimous that satellites had contributed significantly to weather observations and/or forecasts. Also, the results indicated a number of other ?problem' areas where some improvements are desired.

  12. Thermospheric Space Weather Modeling

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-06-01

    atmospheric temperature V = satellite velocity relative to the ambient gas ’ Senior physicist, Space Weather Center of Excellence, Mail Stop: VSBXT; Member...where temperature rises drastically to -600 - 2000 K. The density and hence drag in this region is driven mainly by two solar influences: directly by EUV...bulge that drives winds to transport heat away from the hot dayside toward the Earth’s cold nightside. Temperatures on the dayside are typically 30

  13. Space Weather Ballooning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, Tony; Johnson, Sam; Koske-Phillips, Amelia; White, Michael; Yarborough, Amelia; Lamb, Aaron; Herbst, Anna; Molina, Ferris; Gilpin, Justin; Grah, Olivia; Perez, Ginger; Reid, Carson; Harvey, Joey; Schultz, Jamie

    2016-10-01

    We have developed a "Space Weather Buoy" for measuring upper atmospheric radiation from cosmic rays and solar storms. The Buoy, which is carried to the stratosphere by helium balloons, is relatively inexpensive and uses off-the-shelf technology accessible to small colleges and high schools. Using this device, we have measured two Forbush Decreases and a small surge in atmospheric radiation during the St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm of March 2015.

  14. Cosmic rays and space weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorman, L. I.

    2003-04-01

    influenced very much on communications, working of navigation systems, satellites and high-level technology systems in space and, the atmosphere, and on the ground). The review and original part will contain following parts: 1. Introduction (cosmic rays as object and instrument of space weather monitoring and forecasting). 2. On-line search of the start of great Flare Energetic Particle (FEP) events, automatically formation of Alerts, estimation of probability of false alerts and probability of missing alerts (realized in Israel Cosmic Ray Center and Emilio Segre’ Observatory). 3. On-line determination of flare energetic particle spectrum by the method of coupling functions. 4. Automatically determination of diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space, time of ejection and energy spectrum of FEP in source; forecasting of expected FEP flux and radiation hazard for space-probes in space, satellites in the magnetosphere, jets and various objects in the atmosphere, and on the ground in dependence of cut-off rigidity. 5. Cosmic ray using for forecasting of major geomagnetic storms accompanied by Forbush-effects.

  15. Highlights of Space Weather Services/Capabilities at NASA/GSFC Space Weather Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fok, Mei-Ching; Zheng, Yihua; Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, Maria; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Mays, Leila; Chulaki, Anna; Lee, Hyesook

    2012-01-01

    The importance of space weather has been recognized world-wide. Our society depends increasingly on technological infrastructure, including the power grid as well as satellites used for communication and navigation. Such technologies, however, are vulnerable to space weather effects caused by the Sun's variability. NASA GSFC's Space Weather Center (SWC) (http://science.gsfc.nasa.gov//674/swx services/swx services.html) has developed space weather products/capabilities/services that not only respond to NASA's needs but also address broader interests by leveraging the latest scientific research results and state-of-the-art models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC: http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov). By combining forefront space weather science and models, employing an innovative and configurable dissemination system (iSWA.gsfc.nasa.gov), taking advantage of scientific expertise both in-house and from the broader community as well as fostering and actively participating in multilateral collaborations both nationally and internationally, NASA/GSFC space weather Center, as a sibling organization to CCMC, is poised to address NASA's space weather needs (and needs of various partners) and to help enhancing space weather forecasting capabilities collaboratively. With a large number of state-of-the-art physics-based models running in real-time covering the whole space weather domain, it offers predictive capabilities and a comprehensive view of space weather events throughout the solar system. In this paper, we will provide some highlights of our service products/capabilities. In particular, we will take the 23 January and the 27 January space weather events as examples to illustrate how we can use the iSWA system to track them in the interplanetary space and forecast their impacts.

  16. Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Yao; Sridhar, Banavar

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60- minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times under one-hour showed that the errors in

  17. Bringing Space Weather Down to Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reiff, P. H.; Sumners, C.

    2005-05-01

    Most of the public has no idea what Space Weather is, but a number of innovative programs, web sites, magazine articles, TV shows and planetarium shows have taken space weather from an unknown quantity to a much more visible field. This paper reviews new developments, including the new Space Weather journal, the very popular spaceweather.com website, new immersive planetarium shows that can go "on the road", and well-publicized Sun-Earth Day activities. Real-time data and reasonably accurate spaceweather forecasts are available from several websites, with many subscribers. Even the renaissance of amateur radio because of Homeland Security brings a new generation of learners to wonder what is going on in the Sun today. The NSF Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling has a dedicated team to reach both the public and a greater diversity of new scientists.

  18. Review on space weather in Latin America. 2. The research networks ready for space weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dasso, Sergio; Gonzalez-Esparza, J. Americo

    2016-11-01

    The present work is the second of a three-part review of space weather in Latin America, specifically observing its evolution in three countries (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico). This work comprises a summary of scientific challenges in space weather research that are considered to be open scientific questions and how they are being addressed in terms of instrumentation by the international community, including the Latin American groups. We also provide an inventory of the networks and collaborations being constructed in Latin America, including details on the data processing, capabilities and a basic description of the resulting variables. These instrumental networks currently used for space science research are gradually being incorporated into the space weather monitoring data pipelines as their data provides key variables for monitoring and forecasting space weather, which allow these centers to monitor space weather and issue watches, warnings and alerts.

  19. Development of a High Resolution Weather Forecast Model for Mesoamerica Using the NASA Ames Code I Private Cloud Computing Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molthan, Andrew; Case, Jonathan; Venner, Jason; Moreno-Madrinan, Max J.; Delgado, Francisco

    2012-01-01

    Two projects at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have collaborated to develop a high resolution weather forecast model for Mesoamerica: The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, which integrates unique NASA satellite and weather forecast modeling capabilities into the operational weather forecasting community. NASA's SERVIR Program, which integrates satellite observations, ground-based data, and forecast models to improve disaster response in Central America, the Caribbean, Africa, and the Himalayas.

  20. Resolution of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts with Application in Disease Management.

    PubMed

    Hughes, G; McRoberts, N; Burnett, F J

    2017-02-01

    Predictive systems in disease management often incorporate weather data among the disease risk factors, and sometimes this comes in the form of forecast weather data rather than observed weather data. In such cases, it is useful to have an evaluation of the operational weather forecast, in addition to the evaluation of the disease forecasts provided by the predictive system. Typically, weather forecasts and disease forecasts are evaluated using different methodologies. However, the information theoretic quantity expected mutual information provides a basis for evaluating both kinds of forecast. Expected mutual information is an appropriate metric for the average performance of a predictive system over a set of forecasts. Both relative entropy (a divergence, measuring information gain) and specific information (an entropy difference, measuring change in uncertainty) provide a basis for the assessment of individual forecasts.

  1. Communicating Environmental Uncertainty: The Nature of Weather Forecasts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Travis, Richard W.; Riebsame, William E.

    1979-01-01

    Traces the path of weather forecasts from the time they are made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration until the time they are received by the public through the mass media. The purpose of the article is to provide geography teachers with basic information on weather forecasts, interpretation of forecast terms, and indications…

  2. Ionosphere-thermosphere space weather issues.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.

    1996-10-01

    Weather disturbances in the ionosphere-thermosphere system can have a detrimental effect on both ground-based and space-based systems. Because of this impact and because this field has matured, it is now appropriate to develop specification and forecast models, with the aim of eventually predicting the occurrence, duration, and intensity of weather effects. As part of the new National Space Weather Program, the CEDAR community will focus on science issues concerning space weather, and this tutorial/review is an expanded version of a tutorial presentation given at the recent CEDAR annual meeting. The tutorial/review provides a brief discussion of weather disturbances and features, the causes of weather, and the status of weather modeling. The features and disturbances discussed include plasma patches, boundary and auroral blobs, Sun-aligned polar cap arcs, the effects of traveling convection vortices and SAID events, the lifetime of density structures, sporadic-E and intermediate layers, spread F and equatorial plasma bubbles, geomagnetic storms and substorms, traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs), and the effects of tides and gravity waves propagating from the lower atmosphere. The tutorial/review is only intended to provide an overview of some of the important scientific issues concerning ionospheric-thermospheric weather, with the emphasis on the ionosphere. Tutorials on thermospheric and magnetospheric weather issues are given in companion papers.

  3. Browsing Space Weather Data and Models with the Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maddox, Marlo M.; Mullinix, Richard E.; Berrios, David H.; Hesse, Michael; Rastaetter, Lutz; Pulkkinen, Antti; Hourcle, Joseph A.; Thompson, Barbara J.

    2011-01-01

    The Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System is a comprehensive web-based platform for space weather information that combines data from solar, heliospheric and geospace observatories with forecasts based on the most advanced space weather models. The iSWA system collects, generates, and presents a wide array of space weather resources in an intuitive, user-configurable, and adaptable format - thus enabling users to respond to current and future space weather impacts as well as enabling post-impact analysis. iSWA currently provides over 200 data and modeling products, and features a variety of tools that allow the user to browse, combine, and examine data and models from various sources. This presentation will consist of a summary of the iSWA products and an overview of the customizable user interfaces, and will feature several tutorial demonstrations highlighting the interactive tools and advanced capabilities.

  4. Space Weathering of Lunar Rocks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noble, S. K.; Keller, L. P.; Christoffersen, R.; Rahman, Z.

    2012-01-01

    All materials exposed at the lunar surface undergo space weathering processes. On the Moon, boulders make up only a small percentage of the exposed surface, and areas where such rocks are exposed, like central peaks, are often among the least space weathered regions identified from remote sensing data. Yet space weathered surfaces (patina) are relatively common on returned rock samples, some of which directly sample the surface of larger boulders. Because, as witness plates to lunar space weathering, rocks and boulders experience longer exposure times compared to lunar soil grains, they allow us to develop a deeper perspective on the relative importance of various weathering processes as a function of time.

  5. Time-Hierarchical Clustering and Visualization of Weather Forecast Ensembles.

    PubMed

    Ferstl, Florian; Kanzler, Mathias; Rautenhaus, Marc; Westermann, Rudiger

    2017-01-01

    We propose a new approach for analyzing the temporal growth of the uncertainty in ensembles of weather forecasts which are started from perturbed but similar initial conditions. As an alternative to traditional approaches in meteorology, which use juxtaposition and animation of spaghetti plots of iso-contours, we make use of contour clustering and provide means to encode forecast dynamics and spread in one single visualization. Based on a given ensemble clustering in a specified time window, we merge clusters in time-reversed order to indicate when and where forecast trajectories start to diverge. We present and compare different visualizations of the resulting time-hierarchical grouping, including space-time surfaces built by connecting cluster representatives over time, and stacked contour variability plots. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our visual encodings with forecast examples of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which convey the evolution of specific features in the data as well as the temporally increasing spatial variability.

  6. Space Weather Studies at Istanbul Technical University

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaymaz, Zerefsan

    2016-07-01

    This presentation will introduce the Upper Atmosphere and Space Weather Laboratory of Istanbul Technical University (ITU). It has been established to support the educational needs of the Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics in 2011 to conduct scientific research in Space Weather, Space Environment, Space Environment-Spacecraft Interactions, Space instrumentation and Upper Atmospheric studies. Currently the laboratory has some essential infrastructure and the most instrumentation for ionospheric observations and ground induced currents from the magnetosphere. The laboratory has two subunits: SWIFT dealing with Space Weather Instrumentation and Forecasting unit and SWDPA dealing with Space Weather Data Processing and Analysis. The research area covers wide range of upper atmospheric and space science studies from ionosphere, ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling, magnetic storms and magnetospheric substorms, distant magnetotail, magnetopause and bow shock studies, as well as solar and solar wind disturbances and their interaction with the Earth's space environment. We also study the spacecraft environment interaction and novel plasma instrument design. Several scientific projects have been carried out in the laboratory. Operational objectives of our laboratory will be carried out with the collaboration of NASA's Space Weather Laboratory and the facilities are in the process of integration to their prediction services. Educational and research objectives, as well as the examples from the research carried out in our laboratory will be demonstrated in this presentation.

  7. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yohe, Gary W.

    Researchers who ponder the value of information work in the world of integrated assessment. They study the creation of scientific knowledge from models and data and view the processing and analysis of knowledge through the creation and distribution of information. They understand that the value of this information is derived fundamentally from how it is used. Therefore, such researchers must investigate how and where individuals (and the institutions and systems that individuals create) uncover information that they find credible and how and why those same individuals, institutions, and systems discard information that they find incredible. The essays presented in Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts are a perfect example of how practicing researchers confront this integration process in an area in which just about everyone has an opinion—the weather.

  8. Commercial Space Tourism and Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, Ronald

    2007-08-01

    Space tourism, a concept which even a few years ago was perveived as science fantasy, is now a credible industry. Five individuals have paid up to $25 M to spend more than a week on the International Space Station. Several enterprises are working toward viable suborbital and orbital private space operations. while operational space weather support to human space flight has been the domain of government entities the emergence of space tourism now presents a new opportunity for the commercial space weather community. This article examines the space weather impact on crews and passengers of the future space tourism industry.

  9. Updates on CCMC Activities and GSFC Space Weather Services

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhengm Y.; Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Maddox, M.; Taktakishvili, A.; Berrios, D.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Macneice, P.; Mays, L.; Mendoza, A. M.; Mullinix, R.

    2011-01-01

    In this presentation, we provide updates on CCMC modeling activities, CCMC metrics and validation studies, and other CCMC efforts. In addition, an overview of GSFC Space Weather Services (a sibling organization to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) and its products/capabilities will be given. We show how some of the research grade models, if running in an operational mode, can help address NASA's space weather needs by providing forecasting/now casting capabilities of significant space weather events throughout the solar system.

  10. Small Sensors for Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicholas, A. C.

    2015-12-01

    The Naval Research Laboratory is actively pursuing enhancing the nation's space weather sensing capability. One aspect of this plan is the concept of flying Space Weather sensor suites on host spacecraft as secondary payloads. The emergence and advancement of the CubeSat spacecraft architecture has produced a viable platform for scientifically and operationally relevant Space Weather sensing. This talk will provide an overview of NRL's low size weight and power sensor technologies targeting Space Weather measurements. A summary of on-orbit results of past and current missions will be presented, as well as an overview of future flights that are manifested and potential constellation missions.

  11. Innovative Information Technology for Space Weather Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, H.; Qu, M.; Shih, F.; Denker, C.; Gerbessiotis, A.; Lofdahl, M.; Rees, D.; Keller, C.

    2004-05-01

    Solar activity is closely related to the near earth environment -- summarized descriptively as space weather. Changes in space weather have adverse effect on many aspects of life and systems on earth and in space. Real-time, high-quality data and data processing would be a key element to forecast space weather promptly and accurately. Recently, we obtained a funding from US National Science Foundation to apply innovative information technology for space weather prediction. (1) We use the technologies of image processing and pattern recognition, such as image morphology segmentation, Support Vector Machines (SVMs), and neural networks to detect and characterize three important solar activities in real-time: filament eruptions, flares, and emerging flux regions (EFRs). Combining the real time detection with the recent statistical study on the relationship among filament eruptions, flares, EFRs, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and geomagnetic storms, we are establishing real time report of solar events and automatic forecasting of earth directed CMEs and subsequent geomagnetic storms. (2) We combine state-of-art parallel computing techniques with phase diverse speckle imaging techniques, to yield near real-time diffraction limited images with a cadence of approximately 10 sec. We utilize the multiplicity of parallel paradigms to optimize the calculation of phase diverse speckle imaging to improve calculation speed. With such data, we can monitor flare producing active regions continuously and carry out targeted studies of the evolution and flows in flare producing active regions. (3) We are developing Web based software tools to post our processed data, events and forecasting in real time, and to be integrated with current solar activity and space weather prediction Web pages at BBSO. This will also be a part of Virtual Solar Observatory (VSO) being developed by the solar physics community. This research is supported by NSF ITR program.

  12. Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III; Hood, Doris

    2009-01-01

    Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Shuttle Flight Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to create a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) that indicates the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input. The tool creates a graphic depicting the potential location of thunderstorm anvils one, two, and three hours into the future. The locations are based on the average of the upper level observed or forecasted winds. The graphic includes 10 and 20 n mi standoff circles centered at the location of interest, as well as one-, two-, and three-hour arcs in the upwind direction. The arcs extend outward across a 30 sector width based on a previous AMU study that determined thunderstorm anvils move in a direction plus or minus 15 of the upper-level wind direction. The AMU was then tasked to transition the tool to the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). SMG later requested the tool be updated to provide more flexibility and quicker access to model data. This presentation describes the work performed by the AMU to transition the tool into AWIPS, as well as the subsequent improvements made to the tool.

  13. International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, Nat; Davila, Joseph M.

    2010-01-01

    The International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is an international scientific program to understand the external drivers of space weather. The science and applications of space weather has been brought to prominence because of the rapid development of space based technology that is useful for all human beings. The ISWI program has its roots in the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) program that ran during 2007 - 2009. The primary objective of the ISWI program is to advance the space weather science by a combination of instrument deployment, analysis and interpretation of space weather data from the deployed instruments in conjunction with space data, and communicate the results to the public and students. Like the IHY, the ISWI will be a grass roots organization with key participation from national coordinators in cooperation with an international steering committee. This talk outlines the ISWI program including its organization and proposed activities.

  14. International Collaboration in Space Weather Situational Awareness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boteler, David; Trichtchenko, Larisa; Danskin, Donald

    Space weather is a global phenomena so interntional collaboration is necessary to maintain awareness of potentially dangerous conditions. The Regional Warning Centres (RWCs) of the International Space Environment Service were set up during the International Geophysical Year to alert the scientific community to conditions requiring special measurements. The information sharing continues to this day with URSIGRAM messages exchanged between RWCs to help them produce space weather forecasts. Venturing into space, especially with manned missions, created a need to know about the space environment and particularly radiation dangers to man in space. Responding to this need led to the creation of a network of stations around the world to provide continuous monitoring of solar activity. Solar wind monitoring is now provided by the ACE satellite, operated by one country, but involving international collaborators to bring the information down in real time. Disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field are monitored by many magnetic observatories that are collaborating through INTERMAGNET to provide reliable data. Space weather produces effects on the ionosphere that can interfere with a variety of systems: the International GNSS Service provides information about effects on positioning systems, and the International Space Environment Service is providing information about iono-spheric absorption, particularly for trans-polar airline operations. The increasing availability of internet access, even at remote locations, is making it easier to obtain the raw information. The challenge now is how to integrate that information to provide effective international situational awareness of space weather.

  15. The Origin of "Space Weather"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cade, William B.; Chan-Park, Christina

    2015-02-01

    Although "space weather" is a fairly recent term, there is a rich history of similar terms being used beginning in the middle to late 1800s. "Solar meteorology," "magnetic weather," and "cosmic meteorology" all appeared during that time frame. The actual first appearance of space weather can be attributed to the publication Science News Letter in 1957 (with the first modern usage in 1959) and was possibly coined by the editor at the time, Watson Davis.

  16. Extracting Space Weather Information from Research Models: Opportunities and Challenges

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael

    2010-01-01

    In addition to supporting space research in the international community, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has as its second objective to apply the power of modern research models toward space weather specification and forecasting. Motivated by the objectives to test models and to ease the transition of research models to space weather forecasting organizations, the CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as a large number of modeling and data products for space weather forecasting support. Over time, these activities have produced tailored products for partners, as well as tools, which address the space weather needs of NASA's robotic mission community. All tools are accessible via a configurable, flexible interface. During this process, CCMC has accumulated substantial experience in understanding model performance, as well as in the design and execution of realtime systems. This presentation will focus on lessons learned and it will suggest low hanging fruit for transition to operations at partner agencies.

  17. The science of space weather.

    PubMed

    Eastwood, Jonathan P

    2008-12-13

    The basic physics underpinning space weather is reviewed, beginning with a brief overview of the main causes of variability in the near-Earth space environment. Although many plasma phenomena contribute to space weather, one of the most important is magnetic reconnection, and recent cutting edge research in this field is reviewed. We then place this research in context by discussing a number of specific types of space weather in more detail. As society inexorably increases its dependence on space, the necessity of predicting and mitigating space weather will become ever more acute. This requires a deep understanding of the complexities inherent in the plasmas that fill space and has prompted the development of a new generation of scientific space missions at the international level.

  18. CCMC/Space Weather Research Center: Overview and Future Space Weather Needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Y.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Maddox, M. M.

    2015-12-01

    Space Weather Research Center (SWRC), part of the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), was established in 2010 to address emerging space weather needs of NASA robotic missions. By leveraging CCMC's modeling capabilities and through collaborations with different NASA centers, government agencies, educational institutions and multiple entities worldwide, SWRC provides research-based space weather forecasting, monitoring and anomaly support to NASA users. SWRC analyst team has also helped to identify limitations of current models and thus accelerate R2O-O2R process. In addition, the establishment of SWRC has added a new dimension to CCMC's education program. In this presentation, an overview of SWRC activities will be given. Future research and modeling needs will be discussed from the perspective of a space weather analyst.

  19. Space Weather Services at Goddard Space Flight Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Zheng, Y.; Maddox, M.; Kuznetsova, M.; Taktakishvil, A.; Rastaetter, L.

    2010-01-01

    The Space Weather Laboratory (SWL) forms a focal point at GSFC for the generation of space weather tools and information. This information is based on data from space mission and ground observatories, as well as on forefront model calculations conducted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). CCMC works with the research community to bring to bear the power of communitydeveloped space science models on space weather problems. Data from primarily from NASA missions but also from NOAA and other partner agencies are combined with model results into a fully configurable space weather information display by means of the iSWA system. This information and iSWA form the basis for and SWL-provided service to NASA's robotic mission fleet, which includes forecasts, regular updates, and warnings. This service benefits from a strong partnership with NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group, and with the US Air Force Weather Agency. In this presentation, we provide a summary of space weather capabilities and services and we present an outlook into the future.

  20. Space weather monitoring and forecasting in South America: products from the user requests to the development of regional magnetic indices and GNSS vertical error maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Padilha, Antonio; Takahashi, Hisao; Souza, Jonas; Mendes, Odim; Batista, Inez S.; SantAnna, Nilson; Gatto, Rubens; Costa, D. Joaquim

    On August 2007 the National Institute for Space Research started a task force to develop and operate a space weather program, which is kwon by the acronyms Embrace that stands for the Portuguese statement “Estudo e Monitoramento BRAasileiro de Clima Espacial” Program (Brazilian Space Weather Study and Monitoring program). The main purpose of the Embrace Program is to monitor the space climate and weather from sun, interplanetary space, magnetosphere and ionosphere-atmosphere, and to provide useful information to space related communities, technological, industrial and academic areas. Since then we have being visiting several different space weather costumers and we have host two workshops of Brazilian space weather users at the Embrace facilities. From the inputs and requests collected from the users the Embrace Program decided to monitored several physical parameters of the sun-earth environment through a large ground base network of scientific sensors and under collaboration with space weather centers partners. Most of these physical parameters are daily published on the Brazilian space weather program web portal, related to the entire network sensors available. A comprehensive data bank and an interface layer are under development to allow an easy and direct access to the useful information. Nowadays, the users will count on products derived from a GNSS monitor network that covers most of the South American territory; a digisonde network that monitors the ionospheric profiles in two equatorial sites and in one low latitude site; several solar radio telescopes to monitor solar activity, and a magnetometer network, besides a global ionospheric physical model. Regarding outreach, we publish a daily bulletin in Portuguese with the status of the space weather environment on the Sun, in the Interplanetary Medium and close to the Earth. Since December 2011, all these activities are carried out at the Embrace Headquarter, a building located at the INPE's main campus

  1. An introduction to Space Weather Integrated Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhong, D.; Feng, X.

    2012-12-01

    The need for a software toolkit that integrates space weather models and data is one of many challenges we are facing with when applying the models to space weather forecasting. To meet this challenge, we have developed Space Weather Integrated Modeling (SWIM) that is capable of analysis and visualizations of the results from a diverse set of space weather models. SWIM has a modular design and is written in Python, by using NumPy, matplotlib, and the Visualization ToolKit (VTK). SWIM provides data management module to read a variety of spacecraft data products and a specific data format of Solar-Interplanetary Conservation Element/Solution Element MHD model (SIP-CESE MHD model) for the study of solar-terrestrial phenomena. Data analysis, visualization and graphic user interface modules are also presented in a user-friendly way to run the integrated models and visualize the 2-D and 3-D data sets interactively. With these tools we can locally or remotely analysis the model result rapidly, such as extraction of data on specific location in time-sequence data sets, plotting interplanetary magnetic field lines, multi-slicing of solar wind speed, volume rendering of solar wind density, animation of time-sequence data sets, comparing between model result and observational data. To speed-up the analysis, an in-situ visualization interface is used to support visualizing the data 'on-the-fly'. We also modified some critical time-consuming analysis and visualization methods with the aid of GPU and multi-core CPU. We have used this tool to visualize the data of SIP-CESE MHD model in real time, and integrated the Database Model of shock arrival, Shock Propagation Model, Dst forecasting model and SIP-CESE MHD model developed by SIGMA Weather Group at State Key Laboratory of Space Weather/CAS.

  2. Incorporating weather uncertainty in demand forecasts for electricity market planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ziser, C. J.; Dong, Z. Y.; Wong, K. P.

    2012-07-01

    A major component of electricity network planning is to ensure supply capability into the future, through generation and transmission development. Accurate forecasts of maximum demand are a crucial component of this process, with future weather conditions having a large impact on forecast accuracy. This article presents an improved methodology for the consideration of weather uncertainty in electricity demand forecasts. Case studies based on the Australian national electricity market are used to validate the proposed methodology.

  3. Training Early Career Space Weather Researchers and other Space Weather Professionals at the CISM Space Weather Summer School

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gross, N. A.; Hughes, W.

    2011-12-01

    This talk will outline the organization of a summer school designed to introduce young professions to a sub-discipline of geophysics. Through out the 10 year life time of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) the CISM Team has offered a two week summer school that introduces new graduate students and other interested professional to the fundamentals of space weather. The curriculum covers basic concepts in space physics, the hazards of space weather, and the utility of computer models of the space environment. Graduate students attend from both inside and outside CISM, from all the sub-disciplines involved in space weather (solar, heliosphere, geomagnetic, and aeronomy), and from across the nation and around the world. In addition, between 1/4 and 1/3 of the participants each year are professionals involved in space weather in some way, such as: forecasters from NOAA and the Air Force, Air Force satellite program directors, NASA specialists involved in astronaut radiation safety, and representatives from industries affected by space weather. The summer school has adopted modern pedagogy that has been used successfully at the undergraduate level. A typical daily schedule involves three morning lectures followed by an afternoon lab session. During the morning lectures, student interaction is encouraged using "Timeout to Think" questions and peer instruction, along with question cards for students to ask follow up questions. During the afternoon labs students, working in groups of four, answer thought provoking questions using results from simulations and observation data from a variety of source. Through the interactions with each other and the instructors, as well as social interactions during the two weeks, students network and form bonds that will last them through out their careers. We believe that this summer school can be used as a model for summer schools in a wide variety of disciplines.

  4. Synopsis of the Review on Space Weather in Latin America: Space Science, Research Networks and Space Weather Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dasso, Sergio; Gonzalez-Esparza, Americo

    2016-07-01

    The present work is a synopsis of a three-part review on space weather in Latin America. The first paper (part 1) comprises the evolution of several Latin American institutions investing in space science since the 1960's, focusing on the solar-terrestrial interactions, which today is commonly called space weather. Despite recognizing advances in space research in all of Latin America, this part 1 is restricted to the development observed in three countries in particular (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico), due to the fact that these countries have recently developed operational centers for monitoring space weather. The review starts with a brief summary of the first groups to start working with space science in Latin America. This first part of the review closes with the current status and the research interests of these groups, which are described in relation to the most significant works and challenges of the next decade in order to aid in the solving of space weather open issues. The second paper (part 2) comprises a summary of scientific challenges in space weather research that are considered to be open scientific questions and how they are being addressed in terms of instrumentation by the international community, including the Latin American groups. We also provide an inventory of the networks and collaborations being constructed in Latin America, including details on the data processing, capabilities and a basic description of the resulting variables. These instrumental networks currently used for space science research are gradually being incorporated into the space weather monitoring data pipelines as their data provides key variables for monitoring and forecasting space weather, which allow these centers to monitor space weather and issue warnings and alerts. The third paper (part 3) presents the decision process for the spinning off of space weather prediction centers from space science groups with our interpretation of the reason/opportunities that leads to

  5. Space weather: European Space Agency perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daly, E. J.; Hilgers, A.

    Spacecraft and payloads have become steadily more sophisticated and therefore more susceptible to space weather effects. ESA has long been active in applying models and tools to the problems associated with such effects on its spacecraft. In parallel, ESA and European agencies have built a highly successful solar-terrestrial physics capability. ESA is now investigating the marriage of these technological and scientific capabilities to address perceived user needs for space weather products and services. Two major ESA-sponsored studies are laying the groundwork for a possible operational European space weather service. The wide-ranging activities of ESA in the Space Weather/Space Environment domain are summarized and recent important examples of space weather concerns given.

  6. Space Weathering: An Ultraviolet Indicator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendrix, A. R.; Vilas, F.

    2003-01-01

    We present evidence suggesting that the spectral slope of airless bodies in the UV-visible wavelength range can be used as an indicator of exposure to space weathering. While space weathering generally produces a reddening of spectra in the visible-NIR spectral regions, it tends to result in a bluing of the UV-visible portion of the spectrum, and may in some cases produce a spectral reversal. The bluing effect may be detectable with smaller amounts of weathering than are necessary to detect the longer-wavelength weathering effects.

  7. Space Weathering: An Ultraviolet Indicator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendrix, A. R.; Vilas, F.

    2004-01-01

    We present evidence suggesting that the spectral slope of airless bodies in the UV-visible wavelength range can be used as an indicator of exposure to space weathering. While space weathering generally produces a reddening of spectra in the visible-NIR spectral regions, it tends to result in a bluing of the UV-visible portion of the spectrum, and may in some cases produce a spectral reversal. The bluing effect may be detectable with smaller amounts of weathering than are necessary to detect the longer-wavelength weathering effects.

  8. Space weathering on airless bodies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pieters, Carle M.; Noble, Sarah K.

    2016-10-01

    Space weathering refers to alteration that occurs in the space environment with time. Lunar samples, and to some extent meteorites, have provided a benchmark for understanding the processes and products of space weathering. Lunar soils are derived principally from local materials but have accumulated a range of optically active opaque particles (OAOpq) that include nanophase metallic iron on/in rims formed on individual grains (imparting a red slope to visible and near-infrared reflectance) and larger iron particles (which darken across all wavelengths) such as are often found within the interior of recycled grains. Space weathering of other anhydrous silicate bodies, such as Mercury and some asteroids, produces different forms and relative abundance of OAOpq particles depending on the particular environment. If the development of OAOpq particles is minimized (such as at Vesta), contamination by exogenic material and regolith mixing become the dominant space weathering processes. Volatile-rich bodies and those composed of abundant hydrous minerals (dwarf planet Ceres, many dark asteroids, and outer solar system satellites) are affected by space weathering processes differently than the silicate bodies of the inner solar system. However, the space weathering products of these bodies are currently poorly understood and the physics and chemistry of space weathering processes in different environments are areas of active research.

  9. Verification of National Weather Service spot forecasts using surface observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lammers, Matthew Robert

    Software has been developed to evaluate National Weather Service spot forecasts issued to support prescribed burns and early-stage wildfires. Fire management officials request spot forecasts from National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices to provide detailed guidance as to atmospheric conditions in the vicinity of planned prescribed burns as well as wildfires that do not have incident meteorologists on site. This open source software with online display capabilities is used to examine an extensive set of spot forecasts of maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, and maximum wind speed from April 2009 through November 2013 nationwide. The forecast values are compared to the closest available surface observations at stations installed primarily for fire weather and aviation applications. The accuracy of the spot forecasts is compared to those available from the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). Spot forecasts for selected prescribed burns and wildfires are used to illustrate issues associated with the verification procedures. Cumulative statistics for National Weather Service County Warning Areas and for the nation are presented. Basic error and accuracy metrics for all available spot forecasts and the entire nation indicate that the skill of the spot forecasts is higher than that available from the NDFD, with the greatest improvement for maximum temperature and the least improvement for maximum wind speed.

  10. Space weather prediction by cosmic rays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mavromichalaki, H.; Souvatzoglou, G.; Sarlanis, C.; Mariatos, G.; Plainaki, C.; Gerontidou, M.; Belov, A.; Eroshenko, E.; Yanke, V.

    Relativistic (galactic and solar) cosmic rays (CR) registered by neutron monitors can play a useful key-role in space weather storms forecasting and in the specification of magnetic properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), shocks and ground level enhancements (GLEs). In order to produce a real-time prediction of space weather phenomena, only real-time data from a neutron monitor network should be employed. Recently in Athens cosmic-ray station a real-time data collection and acquisition system has been created in collaboration with the cosmic ray group of IZMIRAN. This system collects data in real-time mode from about 15 real-time cosmic ray stations by using the internet. The main server in Athens station collects 5-min and hourly cosmic ray data. The measurements of all stations are being processed automatically while converted into a suitable form, so as to be serviceably for forecasting purposes. All programs have been written in an expandable form, in order to upgrade the network of real-time neutron monitors with the biggest possible number of stations, easily. Programs which make use of these data for forecasting studies are already running in experimental mode. The increased number of NM stations operating in real time provides a good basis for using Neutron Monitor network as a tool of forecasting the arrival of the interplanetary disturbances at the Earth.

  11. The International Space Weather Initiative

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nat, Gopalswamy; Joseph, Davila; Barbara, Thompson

    2010-01-01

    The International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is a program of international cooperation aimed at understanding the external drivers of space weather. The ISWI program has its roots in the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) program that ran during 2007 - 2009 and will continue with those aspects that directly affect life on Earth. The primary objective of the ISWI program is to advance the space weather science by a combination of instrument deployment, analysis and interpretation of space weather data from the deployed instruments in conjunction with space data, and communicate the results to the public and students. Like the IHY, the ISWI will be a grass roots organization with key participation from national coordinators in cooperation with an international steering committee. This presentation outlines the ISWI program including its organizational aspects and proposed activities. The ISWI observatory deployment and outreach activities are highly complementary to the CAWSES II activities of SCOSTEP.

  12. Space Weather Research: Indian perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.

    2016-12-01

    Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

  13. Modeled Forecasts of Dengue Fever in San Juan, Puerto Rico Using NASA Satellite Enhanced Weather Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morin, C.; Quattrochi, D. A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.

    2015-12-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is an important mosquito transmitted disease that is strongly influenced by meteorological and environmental conditions. Recent research has focused on forecasting DF case numbers based on meteorological data. However, these forecasting tools have generally relied on empirical models that require long DF time series to train. Additionally, their accuracy has been tested retrospectively, using past meteorological data. Consequently, the operational utility of the forecasts are still in question because the error associated with weather and climate forecasts are not reflected in the results. Using up-to-date weekly dengue case numbers for model parameterization and weather forecast data as meteorological input, we produced weekly forecasts of DF cases in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Each week, the past weeks' case counts were used to re-parameterize a process-based DF model driven with updated weather forecast data to generate forecasts of DF case numbers. Real-time weather forecast data was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) system enhanced using additional high-resolution NASA satellite data. This methodology was conducted in a weekly iterative process with each DF forecast being evaluated using county-level DF cases reported by the Puerto Rico Department of Health. The one week DF forecasts were accurate especially considering the two sources of model error. First, weather forecasts were sometimes inaccurate and generally produced lower than observed temperatures. Second, the DF model was often overly influenced by the previous weeks DF case numbers, though this phenomenon could be lessened by increasing the number of simulations included in the forecast. Although these results are promising, we would like to develop a methodology to produce longer range forecasts so that public health workers can better prepare for dengue epidemics.

  14. Development of operational models for space weather prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Siqing; Gong, Jiancun

    Since space weather prediction is currently at the stage of transition from human experience to objective forecasting methods, developing operational forecasting models becomes an important way to improve the capabilities of space weather service. As the existing theoretical models are not fully operational when it comes to space weather prediction, we carried out researches on developing operational models, considering the user needs for prediction of key elements in space environment, which have vital impacts on space assets security. We focused on solar activities, geomagnetic activities, high-energy particles, atmospheric density, plasma environment and so forth. Great progresses have been made in developing 3D dynamic asymmetric magnetopause model, plasma sheet energetic electron flux forecasting model and 400km-atmospheric density forecasting model, and also in the prediction of high-speed solar-wind streams from coronal holes and geomagnetic AE indices. Some of these models have already been running in the operational system of Space Environment Prediction Center, National Space Science Center (SEPC/NSSC). This presentation will introduce the research plans for space weather prediction in China, and current progresses of developing operational models and their applications in daily space weather services in SEPC/NSSC.

  15. Use of EOS Data in AWIPS for Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Haines, Stephanie L.; Suggs, Ron J.; Bradshaw, Tom; Darden, Chris; Burks, Jason

    2003-01-01

    Operational weather forecasting relies heavily on real time data and modeling products for forecast preparation and dissemination of significant weather information to the public. The synthesis of this information (observations and model products) by the meteorologist is facilitated by a decision support system to display and integrate the information in a useful fashion. For the NWS this system is called Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). Over the last few years NASA has launched a series of new Earth Observation Satellites (EOS) for climate monitoring that include several instruments that provide high-resolution measurements of atmospheric and surface features important for weather forecasting and analysis. The key to the utilization of these unique new measurements by the NWS is the real time integration of the EOS data into the AWIPS system. This is currently being done in the Huntsville and Birmingham NWS Forecast Offices under the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Program. This paper describes the use of near real time MODIS and AIRS data in AWIPS to improve the detection of clouds, moisture variations, atmospheric stability, and thermal signatures that can lead to significant weather development. The paper and the conference presentation will focus on several examples where MODIS and AIRS data have made a positive impact on forecast accuracy. The results of an assessment of the utility of these products for weather forecast improvement made at the Huntsville NWS Forecast Office will be presented.

  16. Satellite Sounder Data Assimilation for Improving Alaska Region Weather Forecast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhu, Jiang; Stevens, E.; Zhang, X.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Heinrichs, T.; Broderson, D.

    2014-01-01

    A case study and monthly statistical analysis using sounder data assimilation to improve the Alaska regional weather forecast model are presented. Weather forecast in Alaska faces challenges as well as opportunities. Alaska has a large land with multiple types of topography and coastal area. Weather forecast models must be finely tuned in order to accurately predict weather in Alaska. Being in the high-latitudes provides Alaska greater coverage of polar orbiting satellites for integration into forecasting models than the lower 48. Forecasting marine low stratus clouds is critical to the Alaska aviation and oil industry and is the current focus of the case study. NASA AIRS/CrIS sounder profiles data are used to do data assimilation for the Alaska regional weather forecast model to improve Arctic marine stratus clouds forecast. Choosing physical options for the WRF model is discussed. Preprocess of AIRS/CrIS sounder data for data assimilation is described. Local observation data, satellite data, and global data assimilation data are used to verify and/or evaluate the forecast results by the MET tools Model Evaluation Tools (MET).

  17. An objective weather-regime-based verification of WRF-RTFDDA forecasts over the eastern Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita; Liu, Yubao; Pan, Linlin; Sheu, Rong-Shyang

    2014-05-01

    Numerical weather prediction in the eastern Mediterranean is very challenging because of the region's unique geography, which includes strong land-sea contrast, complex topography, highly varied vegetation, and mosaic of urban and desert areas. This geographic heterogeneity often results in complex and dramatically different mesoscale and microscale flows underdifferent synoptic situations. WRF-RTFDDA (Weather Research and Forecasting - Realtime four-dimensional data assimilation and forecasting system) is a WRF-based multi-scale 4-dimensional weather analysis and prediction system. It effectively assimilates diverse types of direct, retrieved and non-direct observations available at irregular time and locations using a hybrid Newtonian relaxation and 3DVar data assimilation procedure to initiate regional weather forecast. The hybrid data assimilation and forecasting system has been implemented in a triple-nested WRF configuration with 30, 10, and 3.3 km horizontal grid spacing over the eastern Mediterranean. Analysis and forecasts have been run for a one-year long period, covering four seasons that include a wide variety of synoptic weather regimes. Objective verification is conducted to study the model performance under different weather regime. The Alpert et al. (2001) weather-regime classification method is adopted to classify the synoptic weather into 19 classes according to daily surface synoptic flows that include cyclones, highs and troughs. The aim of this paper is to investigate the model skill under different synoptic weather regimes. Objective verification statistics including Bias, RMSE and MAE of main weather variables are calculated by comparing the model data with soundings and surface observations for each weather regime. Preliminary examination of the verification scores shows significant differences of model forecast accuracy under different weather situations. The RMSE of 24h forecasts of 2-m temperatures varies from 1.6 C to 2.3C among

  18. Briefing highlights space weather risks to GPS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tretkoff, Ernie

    2011-07-01

    Solar storms, which are expected to increase as the Sun nears the most active phase of the solar cycle, can disrupt a variety of technologies on which society relies. Speakers at a 22 June briefing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D. C., focused on how space weather can affect the Global Positioning System (GPS), which is used in a wide range of industries, including commercial air travel, agriculture, national security, and emergency response. Rocky Stone, chief technical pilot for United Airlines, noted that GPS allows more aircraft to be in airspace, saves fuel, and helps aircraft move safely on runways. “Improvements in space weather forecasting need to be pursued,” he said. Precision GPS has also “changed the whole nature of farming,” said Ron Hatch, Director of Navigation Systems, NavCom Technology/John Deere. GPS makes it possible for tractors to be driven in the most efficient paths and for fertilizer and water to be applied precisely to the areas that most need them. Space weather-induced degradation of GPS signals can cause significant loss to farms that rely on GPS. Elizabeth Zimmerman, Deputy Associate Administrator for the Office of Response and Recovery at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), described how FEMA relies on GPS for disaster recovery. The agency is developing an operations plan for dealing with space weather, she said.

  19. Space Weathering of Small Bodies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McFadden, L. A.

    2002-12-01

    Space weathering is defined as any process that wears away and alters surfaces, here confined to small bodies in the Solar System. Mechanisms which possibly alter asteroid and comet surfaces include solar wind bombardment, UV radiation, cosmic ray bombardment, micrometeorite bombardment. These processes are likely to contribute to surface processes differently. For example, solar wind bombardment would be more important on a body closer to the Sun compared to a comet where cosmic ray bombardment might be a more significant weathering mechanism. How can we measure the effects of space weathering? A big problem is that we don't know the nature of the surface before it was weathered. We are in a new era in the study of surface processes on small bodies brought about by the availability of spatially resolved, color and spectral measurements of asteroids from Galileo and NEAR. What processes are active on which bodies? What physics controls surface processes in different regions of the solar system? How do processes differ on different bodies of different physical and chemical properties? What combinations of observable parameters best address the nature of surface processes? Are there alternative explanations for the observed parameters that have been attributed to space weathering? Should we retain the term, space weathering? How can our understanding of space weathering on the Moon help us understand it on asteroids and comets? Finally, we have to leave behind some presuppositions, one being that there is evidence of space weathering based on the fact that the optical properties of S-type asteroids differs from those of ordinary chondrites.

  20. APL experience with space weather modeling and transition to operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zanetti, L. J.; Wing, S.

    2009-12-01

    In response to the growing space weather needs, the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) developed and delivered twenty two state of the art space weather products under the auspice of the University Partnering in Operational Support program, initiated in 1998. These products offer nowcasts and forecasts for the region spanning from the Sun to the Earth. Some of these products have been transitioned to the Air Force Weather Agency and other space weather centers. The transition process is quite different from research modeling, requiring additional staff with different sets of expertise. Recently, APL has developed a space weather web page to serve these products to the research and user community. For the initial stage, we have chosen ten of these products to be served from our website, which is presently still under construction. APL’s experience, lessons learned, and successes from developing space weather models, the transition to operations process and the webpage access will be shared and discussed

  1. Martian Weather Analysis and Forecasts from Multiple Spacecraft Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Houben, H.

    2004-05-01

    emerges naturally from the observation weighting scheme which rejects data that disagrees violently with both other measurements and the forecast model; and real-time weather forecasts can be made available for a host of operational purposes (aerobraking, aerocapture, gliding, ballooning, dust storm warnings). All of these are made practical---given the limited computational resources that can be devoted to Martian weather forecasting---by an observation space sequential assimilation technique, using a transformed extended Kalman filter that weights both model forecasts and observational errors by agreement with the data. Forecast errors are less than 4 K and should improve with more sophisticated predictive models.

  2. Weather Forecasting: Sunny Days Are Ahead. Resources in Technology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skena, George

    1992-01-01

    Discusses the history of weather forecasting from the Babylonians to today's computers and provides information on snow, hail, sleet, fog, winds, clouds, and fronts. Includes possible student outcomes and a student quiz. (JOW)

  3. Is It Going to Rain Today? Understanding the Weather Forecast.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Allsopp, Jim; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Presents a resource for science teachers to develop a better understanding of weather forecasts, including outlooks, watches, warnings, advisories, severe local storms, winter storms, floods, hurricanes, nonprecipitation hazards, precipitation probabilities, sky condition, and UV index. (MKR)

  4. Space Weather Products at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael

    2010-01-01

    In addition to supporting space research in the international community, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has as its second objective to bring to apply the power of modern research models toward space weather specification and forecasting. Initially motivated by the objective to test models and to ease the transition of research models to space weather forecasting organization, the CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as large number of modeling and data products for space weather forecasting. Over time, these activities have evolved into tailored products for partners, as well as into a direct support of the space weather needs within NASA robotic mission community. Accessible through a customizable interface, users within the US or at partnering institutions internationally have access to space weather tools driven by the most advanced space research models. Through partnering with agencies and institutions in the US and abroad, the CCMC strives to set up further data sharing agreements to the benefit of all participating institutions. In this presentation, we provide an overview of existing CCMC space weather services and products, and we will explore additional avenues for international collaborations.

  5. Space weather activities in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.

    The Sun has long been understood as a source of energy for mankind. Only in the more modern times has it also been seen as a source of disturbances in the space environment of the Earth, but also of the other planets and the heliosphere. Space weather research had an early start in Europe with investigations of Birkeland, Fitzgerald and Lodge, ultimately leading to an understanding of geomagnetic storms and their relation to the Sun. Today, European space weather activities range from the study of the Sun, through the inner heliosphere, to the magnetosphere, ionosphere, atmosphere, down to ground level effects. We will give an overview of European space weather activities and focus on the chain of events from Sun to Earth.

  6. SWUSV: a microsatellite mission for space weather early forecasting of major flares and CMEs and the complete monitoring of the ultraviolet solar variability influence on climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Damé, Luc

    The SWUSV (Space Weather & Ultraviolet Solar Variability) proposed microsatellite mission encompasses three major scientific objectives: (1) Space Weather including the prediction and detection of major eruptions and coronal mass ejections (using Lyman-Alpha and Herzberg continuum imaging and H-Alpha ground support); (2) solar forcing on the climate through radiation and their interactions with the local stratosphere (UV spectral irradiance from 180 to 400 nm by bands of 10 to 20 nm, including ozone, plus Lyman-Alpha and the CN bandhead); (3) simultaneous local radiative budget of the Earth, UV to IR, with an accuracy better than 1% in differential. The mission is on a sun-synchronous polar orbit and proposes 5 instruments to the model payload: SUAVE (Solar Ultraviolet Advanced Variability Experiment), an optimized telescope for FUV (Lyman-Alpha) and MUV (200-220 nm Herzberg continuum) imaging (sources of variability); UPR (Ultraviolet Passband Radiometers), with 64 UV filter radiometers; a vector magnetometer; thermal plasma measurements and Langmuir probes; and a total and spectral solar irradiance and Earth radiative budget ensemble (SERB, Solar irradiance & Earth Radiative Budget). SWUSV is proposed as a small mission to CNES and to ESA for a possible flight as early as 2020-2021. With opening to Chinese collaboration (ESA-CAS Small Mission) a further instrument could be added (HEBS, High Energy Burst Spectrometers) to reinforced Space Weather flares prediction objectives.

  7. Mexican Space Weather Service (SCIESMEX)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez-Esparza, A.; De la Luz, V.; Mejia-Ambriz, J. C.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E.; Corona-Romero, P.; Gonzalez, L. X.

    2015-12-01

    Recent modifications of the Civil Protection Law in Mexico include now specific mentions to space hazards and space weather phenomena. During the last few years, the UN has promoted international cooperation on Space Weather awareness, studies and monitoring. Internal and external conditions motivated the creation of a Space Weather Service in Mexico (SCIESMEX). The SCIESMEX (www.sciesmex.unam.mx) is operated by the Geophysics Institute at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). The UNAM has the experience of operating several critical national services, including the National Seismological Service (SSN); besides that has a well established scientific group with expertise in space physics and solar- terrestrial phenomena. The SCIESMEX is also related with the recent creation of the Mexican Space Agency (AEM). The project combines a network of different ground instruments covering solar, interplanetary, geomagnetic, and ionospheric observations. The SCIESMEX has already in operation computing infrastructure running the web application, a virtual observatory and a high performance computing server to run numerical models. SCIESMEX participates in the International Space Environment Services (ISES) and in the Inter-progamme Coordination Team on Space Weather (ICTSW) of the Word Meteorological Organization (WMO).

  8. Geography Department Weather Forecasting Contests in the 21st Century

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skeeter, Brent R.

    2006-01-01

    The benefits of weather forecasting contests within geography departments are reaffirmed. The greatly increased ease of conducting such contests in the new millennium is stressed. Some of the specifics of the forecasting contest at Salisbury University are discussed. In addition, the advantages of a departmental contest over a national contest are…

  9. Space Weathering Processes on Mercury

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noble, S. K.; Pieters, C. M.

    2002-01-01

    Like the Moon, Mercury has no atmosphere to protect it from the harsh space environment and therefore it is expected that it will incur the effects of space weathering. These weathering processes are capable of both creating regolith and altering its optical properties. However, there are many important differences between the environments of Mercury and the Moon. These environmental differences will almost certainly affect the weathering processes as well as the products of those processes. It should be possible to observe the effects of these differences in Vis/NIR spectra of the type expected to be returned by MESSENGER. More importantly, understanding these weathering processes and their consequences is essential for evaluating the spectral data returned from MESSENGER and other missions in order to determine the mineralogy and the iron content of the Mercurian surface. Theoretical and experimental work has been undertaken in order to better understand these consequences.

  10. AFGWC (Air Force Global Weather Central) Cloud Forecast Models

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-04-01

    Weather Center, Offutt AFB, NE 68113. This document contains export- controlled technical data. USAF ETAC/DOL ltr, 9 Feb 1995 UNCLASSIFIED ::Am:tiiiiii...wmmmmm •..-111111111111 ?TWWT’ . " iwimni WC FILE COP* Lf> 5 I o < AFGWC CLOUD FORECAST MODELS EDITED BY MAJOR TIMOTHY D, CRUM SCm ’-■ It...5LAYBR model makes extra-tropical forecasts for periods up to 48 hours. Forecasts of layer and total cloud, cloud type, layer temperatures , and

  11. Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profile on Regional Weather Forecast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovee, Gary

    2010-01-01

    Prudent assimilation of AIRS thermodynamic profiles and quality indicators can improve initial conditions for regional weather models. AIRS-enhanced analysis has warmer and moister PBL. Forecasts with AIRS profiles are generally closer to NAM analyses than CNTL. Assimilation of AIRS leads to an overall QPF improvement in 6-h accumulated precipitation forecasts. Including AIRS profiles in assimilation process enhances the moist instability and produces stronger updrafts and a better precipitation forecast than the CNTL run.

  12. ESA SSA Space Weather Services Supporting Space Surveillance and Tracking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luntama, Juha-Pekka; Glover, Alexi; Hilgers, Alain; Fletcher, Emmet

    2012-07-01

    ESA Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Preparatory Programme was started in 2009. The objective of the programme is to support the European independent utilisation of and access to space research or services. This will be performed through providing timely and quality data, information, services and knowledge regarding the environment, the threats and the sustainable exploitation of the outer space surrounding the planet Earth. SSA serves the implementation of the strategic missions of the European Space Policy based on the peaceful uses of the outer space by all states, by supporting the autonomous capacity to securely and safely operate the critical European space infrastructures. The Space Weather (SWE) Segment of the SSA will provide user services related to the monitoring of the Sun, the solar wind, the radiation belts, the magnetosphere and the ionosphere. These services will include near real time information and forecasts about the characteristics of the space environment and predictions of space weather impacts on sensitive spaceborne and ground based infrastructure. The SSA SWE system will also include establishment of a permanent database for analysis, model development and scientific research. These services are will support a wide variety of user domains including spacecraft designers, spacecraft operators, human space flights, users and operators of transionospheric radio links, and space weather research community. The precursor SWE services to be established starting in 2010. This presentation provides an overview of the ESA SSA SWE services focused on supporting the Space Surveillance and Tracking users. This services include estimates of the atmospheric drag and archive and forecasts of the geomagnetic and solar indices. In addition, the SSA SWE system will provide nowcasts of the ionospheric group delay to support mitigation of the ionospheric impact on radar signals. The paper will discuss the user requirements for the services, the data

  13. Space Weather Workshop 2010 to Be Held in April

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peltzer, Thomas

    2010-03-01

    The annual Space Weather Workshop will be held in Boulder, Colo., 27-30 April 2010. The workshop will bring customers, forecasters, commercial service providers, researchers, and government agencies together in a lively dialogue about space weather. The workshop will include 4 days of plenary sessions on a variety of topics, with poster sessions focusing on the Sun, interplanetary space, the magnetosphere, and the ionosphere. The conference will address the remarkably diverse impacts of space weather on today's technology. Highlights on this year's agenda include ionospheric storms and their impacts on the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), an update on NASA's recently launched Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), and new space weather-related activities in the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Also this year, the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group will feature a presentation by former NOAA administrator, Vice Admiral Conrad Lautenbacher, U.S. Navy (Ret.).

  14. A survey of customers of space weather information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schrijver, C. J.; Rabanal, J. P.

    2013-09-01

    We present an analysis of the users of space weather information based on 2783 responses to an online survey among subscribers of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center e-mail services. The survey requested information focused on the three NOAA space weather scales: geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, and radio blackouts. Space weather information is most commonly obtained for reasons of human safety and continuity or reliability of operations. The information is primarily used for situational awareness, as aid to understand anomalies, to avoid impacts on current and near-future operations by implementing mitigating strategies, and to prepare for potential near-future impacts that might occur in conjunction with contingencies that include electric power outages or GPS perturbations. Interest in, anticipated impacts from, and responses to the three main categories of space weather are quite uniform across societal sectors. Approximately 40% of the respondents expect serious to very serious impacts from space weather events if no action were taken to mitigate or in the absence of adequate space weather information. The impacts of space weather are deemed to be substantially reduced because of the availability of, and their response to, space weather forecasts and alerts. Current and near-future space weather conditions are generally highly valued, considered useful, and generally, though not fully, adequate to avoid or mitigate societal impacts. We conclude that even among those receiving space weather information, there is considerable uncertainty about the possible impacts of space weather and thus about how to act on the space weather information that is provided.

  15. Forecast and virtual weather driven plant disease risk modeling system

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We describe a system in use and development that leverages public weather station data, several spatialized weather forecast types, leaf wetness estimation, generic plant disease models, and online statistical evaluation. Convergent technological developments in all these areas allow, with funding f...

  16. 2011 Space Weather Workshop to Be Held in April

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peltzer, Thomas

    2011-04-01

    The annual Space Weather Workshop will be held in Boulder, Colo., 26-29 April 2011. The workshop will bring customers, forecasters, commercial service providers, researchers, and government agencies together in a lively dialogue about space weather. The workshop will include 4 days of plenary sessions on a variety of topics, with poster sessions focusing on the Sun, interplanetary space, the magnetosphere, and the ionosphere. The conference will address the remarkably diverse impacts of space weather on today's technology. Highlights on this year's agenda will include presentations on space weather impacts on the Global Positioning System (GPS), the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory's (STEREO) mission milestone of a 360° view of the Sun, the latest from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), and space weather impacts on emergency response by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Additionally, the vulnerabilities of satellites and the power grid to space weather will be addressed. Additional highlights will include the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group's (CSWIG) roundtable session and a presentation from the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM). The CSWIG roundtable session on the growth of the space weather enterprise will feature distinguished panelists. As always, lively interaction between the audience and the panel is anticipated. The OFCM will present the National Space Weather Program's new strategic plan.

  17. Validation of Space Weather Models at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuznetsova, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Hesse, M.; Chulaki, A.; Maddox, M.

    2011-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multiagency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather modes. CCMC goal is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. The presentation will demonstrate the recent progress in CCMC metrics and validation activities.

  18. Forecast Validation and Verification for Earthquakes, Weather and Finance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.; Tiampo, K.

    2009-04-01

    Techniques for earthquake forecasting are in development using both seismicity data mining methods, as well as numerical simulations. Testing such forecasts is necessary not only to determine forecast quality, but also to carry out forecast improvement. A large number of techniques to validate and verify forecasts have been developed for weather and financial applications. Many of these have been elaborated in public locations, including http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/staff/eee/verif/verif_web_page.html. Typically, the goal is to test for forecast resolution, reliability and sharpness. A good forecast is characterized by consistency, quality and value. Most, if not all of these forecast verification procedures can be readily applied to earthquake forecasts as well. In this talk, we discuss a number of these methods, and show how they might be useful for both fault-based forecasting, a group that includes the WGCEP and simulator-based renewal models, and grid-based forecasting, which includes the Relative Intensity, Pattern Informatics, and smoothed seismicity methods. We find that applying these standard methods of forecast verification is straightforward, and we conclude that judgments about the quality of a given forecast method can often depend on the test applied.

  19. GIM-TEC adaptive ionospheric weather assessment and forecast system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gulyaeva, T. L.; Arikan, F.; Hernandez-Pajares, M.; Stanislawska, I.

    2013-09-01

    The Ionospheric Weather Assessment and Forecast (IWAF) system is a computer software package designed to assess and predict the world-wide representation of 3-D electron density profiles from the Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content (GIM-TEC). The unique system products include daily-hourly numerical global maps of the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and the peak height (hmF2) generated with the International Reference Ionosphere extended to the plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, upgraded by importing the daily-hourly GIM-TEC as a new model driving parameter. Since GIM-TEC maps are provided with 1- or 2-days latency, the global maps forecast for 1 day and 2 days ahead are derived using an harmonic analysis applied to the temporal changes of TEC, foF2 and hmF2 at 5112 grid points of a map encapsulated in IONEX format (-87.5°:2.5°:87.5°N in latitude, -180°:5°:180°E in longitude). The system provides online the ionospheric disturbance warnings in the global W-index map establishing categories of the ionospheric weather from the quiet state (W=±1) to intense storm (W=±4) according to the thresholds set for instant TEC perturbations regarding quiet reference median for the preceding 7 days. The accuracy of IWAF system predictions of TEC, foF2 and hmF2 maps is superior to the standard persistence model with prediction equal to the most recent ‘true’ map. The paper presents outcomes of the new service expressed by the global ionospheric foF2, hmF2 and W-index maps demonstrating the process of origin and propagation of positive and negative ionosphere disturbances in space and time and their forecast under different scenarios.

  20. Next-Generation Severe Weather Forecasting and Communication

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rothfusz, Lans P.; Karstens, Christopher; Hilderband, Douglas

    2014-09-01

    Despite advances in the hazardous weather predictive skills of forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) [Simmons and Sutter, 2011], the underlying methodologies used to generate severe weather watches (i.e., announcements that the potential for severe weather exists) and warnings (i.e., announcements that severe weather conditions are occurring or imminent) have changed little since they were first issued in 1965. The resulting text-based, deterministic (i.e., a single, most accurate value) messages lack the detail and flexibility to match the technology, science, diversity, lifestyles, and vulnerability of society today.

  1. Communicating space weather to policymakers and the wider public

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreira, Bárbara

    2014-05-01

    As a natural hazard, space weather has the potential to affect space- and ground-based technological systems and cause harm to human health. As such, it is important to properly communicate this topic to policymakers and the general public alike, informing them (without being unnecessarily alarmist) about the potential impact of space-weather phenomena and how these can be monitored and mitigated. On the other hand, space weather is related to interesting phenomena on the Sun such as coronal-mass ejections, and incorporates one of the most beautiful displays in the Earth and its nearby space environment: aurora. These exciting and fascinating aspects of space weather should be cultivated when communicating this topic to the wider public, particularly to younger audiences. Researchers have a key role to play in communicating space weather to both policymakers and the wider public. Space scientists should have an active role in informing policy decisions on space-weather monitoring and forecasting, for example. And they can exercise their communication skills by talking about space weather to school children and the public in general. This presentation will focus on ways to communicate space weather to wider audiences, particularly policymakers. It will also address the role researchers can play in this activity to help bridge the gap between the space science community and the public.

  2. A regressive storm model for extreme space weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terkildsen, Michael; Steward, Graham; Neudegg, Dave; Marshall, Richard

    2012-07-01

    Extreme space weather events, while rare, pose significant risk to society in the form of impacts on critical infrastructure such as power grids, and the disruption of high end technological systems such as satellites and precision navigation and timing systems. There has been an increased focus on modelling the effects of extreme space weather, as well as improving the ability of space weather forecast centres to identify, with sufficient lead time, solar activity with the potential to produce extreme events. This paper describes the development of a data-based model for predicting the occurrence of extreme space weather events from solar observation. The motivation for this work was to develop a tool to assist space weather forecasters in early identification of solar activity conditions with the potential to produce extreme space weather, and with sufficient lead time to notify relevant customer groups. Data-based modelling techniques were used to construct the model, and an extensive archive of solar observation data used to train, optimise and test the model. The optimisation of the base model aimed to eliminate false negatives (missed events) at the expense of a tolerable increase in false positives, under the assumption of an iterative improvement in forecast accuracy during progression of the solar disturbance, as subsequent data becomes available.

  3. Ionospheric research for space weather service support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stanislawska, Iwona; Gulyaeva, Tamara; Dziak-Jankowska, Beata

    2016-07-01

    Knowledge of the behavior of the ionosphere is very important for space weather services. A wide variety of ground based and satellite existing and future systems (communications, radar, surveillance, intelligence gathering, satellite operation, etc) is affected by the ionosphere. There are the needs for reliable and efficient support for such systems against natural hazard and minimalization of the risk failure. The joint research Project on the 'Ionospheric Weather' of IZMIRAN and SRC PAS is aimed to provide on-line the ionospheric parameters characterizing the space weather in the ionosphere. It is devoted to science, techniques and to more application oriented areas of ionospheric investigation in order to support space weather services. The studies based on data mining philosophy increasing the knowledge of ionospheric physical properties, modelling capabilities and gain applications of various procedures in ionospheric monitoring and forecasting were concerned. In the framework of the joint Project the novel techniques for data analysis, the original system of the ionospheric disturbance indices and their implementation for the ionosphere and the ionospheric radio wave propagation are developed since 1997. Data of ionosonde measurements and results of their forecasting for the ionospheric observatories network, the regional maps and global ionospheric maps of total electron content from the navigational satellite system (GNSS) observations, the global maps of the F2 layer peak parameters (foF2, hmF2) and W-index of the ionospheric variability are provided at the web pages of SRC PAS and IZMIRAN. The data processing systems include analysis and forecast of geomagnetic indices ap and kp and new eta index applied for the ionosphere forecasting. For the first time in the world the new products of the W-index maps analysis are provided in Catalogues of the ionospheric storms and sub-storms and their association with the global geomagnetic Dst storms is

  4. Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Weather Forecasts in the ECMWF Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bozzo, A.; Benedetti, A.; Rodwell, M. J.; Bechtold, P.; Remy, S.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosols play an important role in the energy balance of the Earth system via direct scattering and absorpiton of short-wave and long-wave radiation and indirect interaction with clouds. Diabatic heating or cooling by aerosols can also modify the vertical stability of the atmosphere and influence weather pattern with potential impact on the skill of global weather prediction models. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides operational daily analysis and forecast of aerosol optical depth (AOD) for five aerosol species using a prognostic model which is part of the Integrated Forecasting System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF-IFS). The aerosol component was developed during the research project Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC). Aerosols can have a large impact on the weather forecasts in case of large aerosol concentrations as found during dust storms or strong pollution events. However, due to its computational burden, prognostic aerosols are not yet feasible in the ECMWF operational weather forecasts, and monthly-mean climatological fields are used instead. We revised the aerosol climatology used in the operational ECMWF IFS with one derived from the MACC reanalysis. We analyse the impact of changes in the aerosol radiative effect on the mean model climate and in medium-range weather forecasts, also in comparison with prognostic aerosol fields. The new climatology differs from the previous one by Tegen et al 1997, both in the spatial distribution of the total AOD and the optical properties of each aerosol species. The radiative impact of these changes affects the model mean bias at various spatial and temporal scales. On one hand we report small impacts on measures of large-scale forecast skill but on the other hand details of the regional distribution of aerosol concentration have a large local impact. This is the case for the northern Indian Ocean where the radiative impact of the mineral

  5. The impact of Sun-weather research on forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larsen, M. F.

    1979-01-01

    The possible impact of Sun-weather research on forecasting is examined. The type of knowledge of the effect is evaluated to determine if it is in a form that can be used for forecasting purposes. It is concluded that the present understanding of the effect does not lend itself readily to applications for forecast purposes. The limits of present predictive skill are examined and it is found that skill is most lacking for prediction of the smallest scales of atmospheric motion. However, it is not expected that Sun-weather research will have any significant impact on forecasting the smaller scales since predictability at these scales is limited by the finite grid size resolution and the time scales of turbulent diffusion. The predictability limits for the largest scales are on the order of several weeks although presently only a one week forecast is achievable.

  6. Interactive 3D visualisation of ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rautenhaus, Marc; Grams, Christian M.; Schäfler, Andreas; Westermann, Rüdiger

    2013-04-01

    We investigate the feasibility of interactive 3D visualisation of ensemble weather predictions in a way suited for weather forecasting during aircraft-based atmospheric field campaigns. The study builds upon our previous work on web-based, 2D visualisation of numerical weather prediction data for the purpose of research flight planning (Rautenhaus et al., Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 55-71, 2012). Now we explore how interactive 3D visualisation of ensemble forecasts can be used to quickly identify atmospheric features relevant to a flight and to assess their uncertainty. We use data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) and present techniques to interactively visualise the forecasts on a commodity desktop PC with a state-of-the-art graphics card. Major objectives of this study are: (1) help the user transition from the ``familiar'' 2D views (horizontal maps and vertical cross-sections) to 3D visualisation by putting interactive 2D views into a 3D context and enriching them with 3D elements, at the same time (2) maintain a high degree of quantitativeness in the visualisation to facilitate easy interpretation; (3) exploitation of the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) for maximum interactivity; (4) investigation of how visualisation can be performed directly from datasets on ECMWF hybrid model levels; (5) development of a basic forecasting tool that provides synchronized navigation through forecast base and lead times, as well as through the ensemble dimension and (6) interactive computation and visualisation of ensemble-based quantities. A prototype of our tool was used for weather forecasting during the aircraft-based T-NAWDEX-Falcon field campaign, which took place in October 2012 at the German Aerospace Centre's (DLR) Oberpfaffenhofen base. We reconstruct the forecast of a warm conveyor belt situation that occurred during the campaign and discuss challenges and opportunities posed by employing three

  7. Community Coordinated Modeling Center: A Powerful Resource in Space Science and Space Weather Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chulaki, A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; MacNeice, P. J.; Shim, J. S.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Mendoza, A. M. M.; Zheng, Y.; Mullinix, R.; Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Maddox, M. M.; Pembroke, A. D.; Wiegand, C.

    2015-12-01

    Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a NASA affiliated interagency partnership with the primary goal of aiding the transition of modern space science models into space weather forecasting while supporting space science research. Additionally, over the past ten years it has established itself as a global space science education resource supporting undergraduate and graduate education and research, and spreading space weather awareness worldwide. A unique combination of assets, capabilities and close ties to the scientific and educational communities enable this small group to serve as a hub for raising generations of young space scientists and engineers. CCMC resources are publicly available online, providing unprecedented global access to the largest collection of modern space science models (developed by the international research community). CCMC has revolutionized the way simulations are utilized in classrooms settings, student projects, and scientific labs and serves hundreds of educators, students and researchers every year. Another major CCMC asset is an expert space weather prototyping team primarily serving NASA's interplanetary space weather needs. Capitalizing on its unrivaled capabilities and experiences, the team provides in-depth space weather training to students and professionals worldwide, and offers an amazing opportunity for undergraduates to engage in real-time space weather monitoring, analysis, forecasting and research. In-house development of state-of-the-art space weather tools and applications provides exciting opportunities to students majoring in computer science and computer engineering fields to intern with the software engineers at the CCMC while also learning about the space weather from the NASA scientists.

  8. Space Weather Models and Their Validation and Verification at the CCMC

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael

    2010-01-01

    The Community Coordinated l\\lodeling Center (CCMC) is a US multi-agency activity with a dual mission. With equal emphasis, CCMC strives to provide science support to the international space research community through the execution of advanced space plasma simulations, and it endeavors to support the space weather needs of the CS and partners. Space weather support involves a broad spectrum, from designing robust forecasting systems and transitioning them to forecasters, to providing space weather updates and forecasts to NASA's robotic mission operators. All of these activities have to rely on validation and verification of models and their products, so users and forecasters have the means to assign confidence levels to the space weather information. In this presentation, we provide an overview of space weather models resident at CCMC, as well as of validation and verification activities undertaken at CCMC or through the use of CCMC services.

  9. Predicting and mitigating impacts of extreme space weather (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, D. N.

    2010-12-01

    Vulnerability of society to extreme space weather is an issue of increasing worldwide concern. For example, electric power networks connecting widely separated geographic areas may incur devastating damage induced by geomagnetic storms. Also, the miniaturization of electronic components in spacecraft systems makes them potentially much more susceptible to damage during space weather disturbances. The conclusion of a recent National Academy of Sciences report was that severe space weather events can cause tens of millions to many billions of dollars of damage to space and ground-based assets during major solar storms. The most extreme events could cause months-long power outages and could cost >1$ trillion. In this presentation, we discuss broad socioeconomic impacts of space weather and also discuss the immense potential benefits of improved space weather forecasts. Such forecasts take advantage of our increased understanding of the Earth’s space environmental conditions and the causative solar drivers. We consider scenarios of how forecasts could be used most effectively by policy makers and management officials.

  10. How are Space Weather and Space Climate Connected to Solar Phenomena?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Many aspects of modern society are susceptible to space weather effects. Pertinent space weather effects include high-energy electromagnetic and particle radiation, changes of atmospheric drag, reduction of GPS accuracy or complete loss of GPS signals, communication outages, and the generation of potentially harmful DC currents in our electric power grid. Beginning in the early 1990s, researchers and government have been increasingly aware of the need to understand the causes of space weather, and to find ways to mitigate deleterious effects associated with it. New research and development programs have been created to address space weather primarily at NASA but also at other agencies. This investment has been very fruitful by generating a new class of entirely new space weather specification and forecast capabilities. This presentation provides an overview of space weather causes and effects, as well as of research and development to forecast and mitigate space weather effects. It will include a discussion of modern space weather analysis and forecasting, and conclude by pointing out paths into the future.

  11. Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, Phase II

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III

    2008-01-01

    Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Light Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) created a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display Systems (MIDDS) to indicate the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input.

  12. Trends in the predictive performance of raw ensemble weather forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemri, Stephan; Scheuerer, Michael; Pappenberger, Florian; Bogner, Konrad; Haiden, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Over the last two decades the paradigm in weather forecasting has shifted from being deterministic to probabilistic. Accordingly, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been run increasingly as ensemble forecasting systems. The goal of such ensemble forecasts is to approximate the forecast probability distribution by a finite sample of scenarios. Global ensemble forecast systems, like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble, are prone to probabilistic biases, and are therefore not reliable. They particularly tend to be underdispersive for surface weather parameters. Hence, statistical post-processing is required in order to obtain reliable and sharp forecasts. In this study we apply statistical post-processing to ensemble forecasts of near-surface temperature, 24-hour precipitation totals, and near-surface wind speed from the global ECMWF model. Our main objective is to evaluate the evolution of the difference in skill between the raw ensemble and the post-processed forecasts. The ECMWF ensemble is under continuous development, and hence its forecast skill improves over time. Parts of these improvements may be due to a reduction of probabilistic bias. Thus, we first hypothesize that the gain by post-processing decreases over time. Based on ECMWF forecasts from January 2002 to March 2014 and corresponding observations from globally distributed stations we generate post-processed forecasts by ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) for each station and variable. Parameter estimates are obtained by minimizing the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) over rolling training periods that consist of the n days preceding the initialization dates. Given the higher average skill in terms of CRPS of the post-processed forecasts for all three variables, we analyze the evolution of the difference in skill between raw ensemble and EMOS forecasts. The fact that the gap in skill remains almost constant over time, especially for near

  13. NASA's Internal Space Weather Working Group

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    St. Cyr, O. C.; Guhathakurta, M.; Bell, H.; Niemeyer, L.; Allen, J.

    2011-01-01

    Measurements from many of NASA's scientific spacecraft are used routinely by space weather forecasters, both in the U.S. and internationally. ACE, SOHO (an ESA/NASA collaboration), STEREO, and SDO provide images and in situ measurements that are assimilated into models and cited in alerts and warnings. A number of years ago, the Space Weather laboratory was established at NASA-Goddard, along with the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. Within that organization, a space weather service center has begun issuing alerts for NASA's operational users. NASA's operational user community includes flight operations for human and robotic explorers; atmospheric drag concerns for low-Earth orbit; interplanetary navigation and communication; and the fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles, high altitude aircraft, and launch vehicles. Over the past three years we have identified internal stakeholders within NASA and formed a Working Group to better coordinate their expertise and their needs. In this presentation we will describe this activity and some of the challenges in forming a diverse working group.

  14. Adaptive Numerical Algorithms in Space Weather Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Toth, Gabor; vanderHolst, Bart; Sokolov, Igor V.; DeZeeuw, Darren; Gombosi, Tamas I.; Fang, Fang; Manchester, Ward B.; Meng, Xing; Nakib, Dalal; Powell, Kenneth G.; Stout, Quentin F.; Glocer, Alex; Ma, Ying-Juan; Opher, Merav

    2010-01-01

    Space weather describes the various processes in the Sun-Earth system that present danger to human health and technology. The goal of space weather forecasting is to provide an opportunity to mitigate these negative effects. Physics-based space weather modeling is characterized by disparate temporal and spatial scales as well as by different physics in different domains. A multi-physics system can be modeled by a software framework comprising of several components. Each component corresponds to a physics domain, and each component is represented by one or more numerical models. The publicly available Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) can execute and couple together several components distributed over a parallel machine in a flexible and efficient manner. The framework also allows resolving disparate spatial and temporal scales with independent spatial and temporal discretizations in the various models. Several of the computationally most expensive domains of the framework are modeled by the Block-Adaptive Tree Solar wind Roe Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) code that can solve various forms of the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equations, including Hall, semi-relativistic, multi-species and multi-fluid MHD, anisotropic pressure, radiative transport and heat conduction. Modeling disparate scales within BATS-R-US is achieved by a block-adaptive mesh both in Cartesian and generalized coordinates. Most recently we have created a new core for BATS-R-US: the Block-Adaptive Tree Library (BATL) that provides a general toolkit for creating, load balancing and message passing in a 1, 2 or 3 dimensional block-adaptive grid. We describe the algorithms of BATL and demonstrate its efficiency and scaling properties for various problems. BATS-R-US uses several time-integration schemes to address multiple time-scales: explicit time stepping with fixed or local time steps, partially steady-state evolution, point-implicit, semi-implicit, explicit/implicit, and fully implicit numerical

  15. Adaptive numerical algorithms in space weather modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tóth, Gábor; van der Holst, Bart; Sokolov, Igor V.; De Zeeuw, Darren L.; Gombosi, Tamas I.; Fang, Fang; Manchester, Ward B.; Meng, Xing; Najib, Dalal; Powell, Kenneth G.; Stout, Quentin F.; Glocer, Alex; Ma, Ying-Juan; Opher, Merav

    2012-02-01

    Space weather describes the various processes in the Sun-Earth system that present danger to human health and technology. The goal of space weather forecasting is to provide an opportunity to mitigate these negative effects. Physics-based space weather modeling is characterized by disparate temporal and spatial scales as well as by different relevant physics in different domains. A multi-physics system can be modeled by a software framework comprising several components. Each component corresponds to a physics domain, and each component is represented by one or more numerical models. The publicly available Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) can execute and couple together several components distributed over a parallel machine in a flexible and efficient manner. The framework also allows resolving disparate spatial and temporal scales with independent spatial and temporal discretizations in the various models. Several of the computationally most expensive domains of the framework are modeled by the Block-Adaptive Tree Solarwind Roe-type Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) code that can solve various forms of the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations, including Hall, semi-relativistic, multi-species and multi-fluid MHD, anisotropic pressure, radiative transport and heat conduction. Modeling disparate scales within BATS-R-US is achieved by a block-adaptive mesh both in Cartesian and generalized coordinates. Most recently we have created a new core for BATS-R-US: the Block-Adaptive Tree Library (BATL) that provides a general toolkit for creating, load balancing and message passing in a 1, 2 or 3 dimensional block-adaptive grid. We describe the algorithms of BATL and demonstrate its efficiency and scaling properties for various problems. BATS-R-US uses several time-integration schemes to address multiple time-scales: explicit time stepping with fixed or local time steps, partially steady-state evolution, point-implicit, semi-implicit, explicit/implicit, and fully implicit

  16. Wind-Farm Forecasting Using the HARMONIE Weather Forecast Model and Bayes Model Averaging for Bias Removal.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Brien, Enda; McKinstry, Alastair; Ralph, Adam

    2015-04-01

    Building on previous work presented at EGU 2013 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876610213016068 ), more results are available now from a different wind-farm in complex terrain in southwest Ireland. The basic approach is to interpolate wind-speed forecasts from an operational weather forecast model (i.e., HARMONIE in the case of Ireland) to the precise location of each wind-turbine, and then use Bayes Model Averaging (BMA; with statistical information collected from a prior training-period of e.g., 25 days) to remove systematic biases. Bias-corrected wind-speed forecasts (and associated power-generation forecasts) are then provided twice daily (at 5am and 5pm) out to 30 hours, with each forecast validation fed back to BMA for future learning. 30-hr forecasts from the operational Met Éireann HARMONIE model at 2.5km resolution have been validated against turbine SCADA observations since Jan. 2014. An extra high-resolution (0.5km grid-spacing) HARMONIE configuration has been run since Nov. 2014 as an extra member of the forecast "ensemble". A new version of HARMONIE with extra filters designed to stabilize high-resolution configurations has been run since Jan. 2015. Measures of forecast skill and forecast errors will be provided, and the contributions made by the various physical and computational enhancements to HARMONIE will be quantified.

  17. Time Relevance of Convective Weather Forecast for Air Traffic Automation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chan, William N.

    2006-01-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is handling nearly 120,000 flights a day through its Air Traffic Management (ATM) system and air traffic congestion is expected to increse substantially over the next 20 years. Weather-induced impacts to throughput and efficiency are the leading cause of flight delays accounting for 70% of all delays with convective weather accounting for 60% of all weather related delays. To support the Next Generation Air Traffic System goal of operating at 3X current capacity in the NAS, ATC decision support tools are being developed to create advisories to assist controllers in all weather constraints. Initial development of these decision support tools did not integrate information regarding weather constraints such as thunderstorms and relied on an additional system to provide that information. Future Decision Support Tools should move towards an integrated system where weather constraints are factored into the advisory of a Decision Support Tool (DST). Several groups such at NASA-Ames, Lincoln Laboratories, and MITRE are integrating convective weather data with DSTs. A survey of current convective weather forecast and observation data show they span a wide range of temporal and spatial resolutions. Short range convective observations can be obtained every 5 mins with longer range forecasts out to several days updated every 6 hrs. Today, the short range forecasts of less than 2 hours have a temporal resolution of 5 mins. Beyond 2 hours, forecasts have much lower temporal. resolution of typically 1 hour. Spatial resolutions vary from 1km for short range to 40km for longer range forecasts. Improving the accuracy of long range convective forecasts is a major challenge. A report published by the National Research Council states improvements for convective forecasts for the 2 to 6 hour time frame will only be achieved for a limited set of convective phenomena in the next 5 to 10 years. Improved longer range forecasts will be probabilistic

  18. Operational Space Weather Needs - Perspectives from SEASONS 2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Comberiate, J.; Kelly, M. A.; Paxton, L. J.; Schaefer, R. K.; Bust, G. S.; Sotirelis, T.; Fox, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    A key challenge for the operational space weather community is the gap between the latest scientific data, models, methods, and indices and those that are currently used in operational systems. The November 2014 SEASONS (Space Environment Applications, Systems, and Operations for National Security) Workshop at JHU/APL in Laurel, Maryland, brings together representatives from the operational and scientific communities. The theme of SEASONS 2014 is "Beyond Climatology," with a focus on how space weather events threaten operational assets and disrupt missions. Here we present perspectives from SEASONS 2014 on new observations, models in development, and forecasting methods that are of interest to the operational space weather community. Highlighted topics include ionospheric data assimilation and forecasting models, HF propagation models, radiation belt observations, and energetic particle modeling. The SEASONS 2014 web site can be found at https://secwww.jhuapl.edu/SEASONS/

  19. Health Issues and Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crosby, N.

    2009-04-01

    The possibility that solar activity and variations in the Earth's magnetic field may affect human health has been debated for many decades but is still a "scientific topic" in its infancy. By learning whether and, if so, how much the Earth's space weather can influence the daily health of people will be of practical importance. Knowing whether human genetics, include regulating factors that take into account fluctuations of the Earth's magnetic field and solar disturbances, indeed exist will also benefit future interplanetary space travelers. Because the atmospheres on other planets are different from ours, as well as their interaction with the space environment, one may ask whether we are equipped with the genetics necessary to take this variability into account. The goal of this presentation is to define what is meant by space weather as a health risk and identify the long-term socio-economic effects on society that such health risks would have. Identifying the physical links between space weather sources and different effects on human health, as well as the parameters (direct and indirect) to be monitored, the potential for such a cross-disciplinary study will be invaluable, for scientists and medical doctors, as well as for engineers.

  20. Uncertainty Forecasts Improve Weather-Related Decisions and Attenuate the Effects of Forecast Error

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joslyn, Susan L.; LeClerc, Jared E.

    2012-01-01

    Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather…

  1. Satellite Sounder Data Assimilation for Improving Alaska Region Weather Forecast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhu, Jiang; Stevens, E.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Zhang, X.; Heinrichs, T.; Broderson, D.

    2014-01-01

    Data assimilation has been demonstrated very useful in improving both global and regional numerical weather prediction. Alaska has very coarser surface observation sites. On the other hand, it gets much more satellite overpass than lower 48 states. How to utilize satellite data to improve numerical prediction is one of hot topics among weather forecast community in Alaska. The Geographic Information Network of Alaska (GINA) at University of Alaska is conducting study on satellite data assimilation for WRF model. AIRS/CRIS sounder profile data are used to assimilate the initial condition for the customized regional WRF model (GINA-WRF model). Normalized standard deviation, RMSE, and correlation statistic analysis methods are applied to analyze one case of 48 hours forecasts and one month of 24-hour forecasts in order to evaluate the improvement of regional numerical model from Data assimilation. The final goal of the research is to provide improved real-time short-time forecast for Alaska regions.

  2. Sunspots, Space Weather and Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.

    2009-01-01

    Four hundred years ago this year the telescope was first used for astronomical observations. Within a year, Galileo in Italy and Harriot in England reported seeing spots on the surface of the Sun. Yet, it took over 230 years of observations before a Swiss amateur astronomer noticed that the sunspots increased and decreased in number over a period of about 11 years. Within 15 years of this discovery of the sunspot cycle astronomers made the first observations of a flare on the surface of the Sun. In the 150 years since that discovery we have learned much about sunspots, the sunspot cycle, and the Sun s explosive events - solar flares, prominence eruptions and coronal mass ejections that usually accompany the sunspots. These events produce what is called Space Weather. The conditions in space are dramatically affected by these events. Space Weather can damage our satellites, harm our astronauts, and affect our lives here on the surface of planet Earth. Long term changes in the sunspot cycle have been linked to changes in our climate as well. In this public lecture I will give an introduction to sunspots, the sunspot cycle, space weather, and the possible impact of solar variability on our climate.

  3. Adapting a weather forecast model for greenhouse gas simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polavarapu, S. M.; Neish, M.; Tanguay, M.; Girard, C.; de Grandpré, J.; Gravel, S.; Semeniuk, K.; Chan, D.

    2015-12-01

    The ability to simulate greenhouse gases on the global domain is useful for providing boundary conditions for regional flux inversions, as well as for providing reference data for bias correction of satellite measurements. Given the existence of operational weather and environmental prediction models and assimilation systems at Environment Canada, it makes sense to use these tools for greenhouse gas simulations. In this work, we describe the adaptations needed to reasonably simulate CO2 with a weather forecast model. The main challenges were the implementation of a mass conserving advection scheme, and the careful implementation of a mixing ratio defined with respect to dry air. The transport of tracers through convection was also added, and the vertical mixing through the boundary layer was slightly modified. With all these changes, the model conserves CO2 mass well on the annual time scale, and the high resolution (0.9 degree grid spacing) permits a good description of synoptic scale transport. The use of a coupled meteorological/tracer transport model also permits an assessment of approximations needed in offline transport model approaches, such as the neglect of water vapour mass when computing a tracer mixing ratio with respect to dry air.

  4. Innovative Near Real-Time Data Dissemination Tools Developed by the Space Weather Research Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mullinix, R.; Maddox, M. M.; Berrios, D.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Zheng, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Space weather affects virtually all of NASA's endeavors, from robotic missions to human exploration. Knowledge and prediction of space weather conditions are therefore essential to NASA operations. The diverse nature of currently available space environment measurements and modeling products compels the need for a single access point to such information. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System provides this single point access along with the capability to collect and catalog a vast range of sources including both observational and model data. NASA Goddard Space Weather Research Center heavily utilizes the iSWA System daily for research, space weather model validation, and forecasting for NASA missions. iSWA provides the capabilities to view and analyze near real-time space weather data from any where in the world. This presentation will describe the technology behind the iSWA system and describe how to use the system for space weather research, forecasting, training, education, and sharing.

  5. Notes on a Vision for the Global Space Weather Enterprise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Head, James N.

    2015-07-01

    Space weather phenomena impacts human civilization on a global scale and hence calls for a global approach to research, monitoring, and operational forecasting. The Global Space Weather Enterprise (GSWE) could be arranged along lines well established in existing international frameworks related to space exploration or to the use of space to benefit humanity. The Enterprise need not establish a new organization, but could evolve from existing international organizations. A GSWE employing open architectural concepts could be arranged to promote participation by all interested States regardless of current differences in science and technical capacity. Such an Enterprise would engender capacity building and burden sharing opportunities.

  6. Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields

    SciTech Connect

    Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

    2005-09-26

    Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

  7. GPS Estimates of Integrated Precipitable Water Aid Weather Forecasters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, Angelyn W.; Gutman, Seth I.; Holub, Kirk; Bock, Yehuda; Danielson, David; Laber, Jayme; Small, Ivory

    2013-01-01

    Global Positioning System (GPS) meteorology provides enhanced density, low-latency (30-min resolution), integrated precipitable water (IPW) estimates to NOAA NWS (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis tration Nat ional Weather Service) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to provide improved model and satellite data verification capability and more accurate forecasts of extreme weather such as flooding. An early activity of this project was to increase the number of stations contributing to the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) GPS meteorology observing network in Southern California by about 27 stations. Following this, the Los Angeles/Oxnard and San Diego WFOs began using the enhanced GPS-based IPW measurements provided by ESRL in the 2012 and 2013 monsoon seasons. Forecasters found GPS IPW to be an effective tool in evaluating model performance, and in monitoring monsoon development between weather model runs for improved flood forecasting. GPS stations are multi-purpose, and routine processing for position solutions also yields estimates of tropospheric zenith delays, which can be converted into mm-accuracy PWV (precipitable water vapor) using in situ pressure and temperature measurements, the basis for GPS meteorology. NOAA ESRL has implemented this concept with a nationwide distribution of more than 300 "GPSMet" stations providing IPW estimates at sub-hourly resolution currently used in operational weather models in the U.S.

  8. Space Weather Receives First "Impact Rating"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lanzerotti, Louis J.

    2007-08-01

    Journal Citation Reports, published by Thomson Scientific (http://scientific.thomson.com/isi/), has issued its first impact factor for Space Weather. It is 1.610. I consider this number to be very good, strongly validating the impact that Space Weather has already made in its short life within the community of space weather professionals.

  9. Validation of Space Weather Models at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Maddox, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Berrios, D.; Zheng, Y.; MacNeice, P. J.; Shim, J.; Taktakishvili, A.; Chulaki, A.

    2011-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. Space weather models and coupled model chains hosted at the CCMC range from the solar corona to the Earth's upper atmosphere. CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as a large number of modeling and data products tailored to address the space weather needs of NASA's robotic missions. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. CCMC has been leading recent comprehensive modeling challenges under GEM, CEDAR and SHINE programs. The presentation will focus on experience in carrying out comprehensive and systematic validation of large sets of. space weather models

  10. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    SciTech Connect

    Lundquist, K. A.

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  11. Forecasting Weather with a Wave of the Hand

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    Building upon its successful collaboration with NASA, Cybernet introduced GestureStorm(TradeMark), a weather map management system that utilizes both body tracking and gesture recognition technology for televised weather reports. The GestureStorm software interface enables meteorologists to control the computerized visual effects on weather maps using hand gestures and body movements. Prior to this, meteorologists prepared scripted on-air reports to coincide with the timing of graphics on the computerized maps. They knew when and where weather and Doppler radar maps would appear on the monitor, but could not react in real time. Cybernet s new product frees forecasters from a script, enabling them to directly interact with the weather picture in real time, significantly reducing the preparation time for the broadcast. With this technology, meteorologists control the pace of the visuals and can incorporate spontaneous close-ups with simple hand movements. In cases of severe weather, meteorologists strive to report new information as quickly as possible. GestureStorm gives forecasters an edge as they track late-breaking storms. The reduced preparation and real-time interaction shave critical minutes from the time required to broadcast severe weather warnings.

  12. Epidemic forecasting is messier than weather forecasting: The role of human behavior and internet data streams in epidemic forecast

    DOE PAGES

    Moran, Kelly Renee; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Generous, Nicholas; ...

    2016-11-14

    Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection andmore » Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. Here, we conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting.« less

  13. Epidemic forecasting is messier than weather forecasting: The role of human behavior and internet data streams in epidemic forecast

    SciTech Connect

    Moran, Kelly Renee; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Generous, Nicholas; Hickmann, Kyle Scott; Osthus, Dave Allen; Priedhorsky, Reid; Hyman, James M.; Del Valle, Sara Yermimah

    2016-11-14

    Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection and Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. Here, we conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting.

  14. Convective scale weather analysis and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Purdom, J. F. W.

    1984-01-01

    How satellite data can be used to improve insight into the mesoscale behavior of the atmosphere is demonstrated with emphasis on the GOES-VAS sounding and image data. This geostationary satellite has the unique ability to observe frequently the atmosphere (sounders) and its cloud cover (visible and infrared) from the synoptic scale down to the cloud scale. These uniformly calibrated data sets can be combined with conventional data to reveal many of the features important in mesoscale weather development and evolution.

  15. Weather Research and Forecasting Model Wind Sensitivity Study at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Leela R.; Bauman, William H., III

    2008-01-01

    NASA prefers to land the space shuttle at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). When weather conditions violate Flight Rules at KSC, NASA will usually divert the shuttle landing to Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in Southern California. But forecasting surface winds at EAFB is a challenge for the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) forecasters due to the complex terrain that surrounds EAFB, One particular phenomena identified by SMG is that makes it difficult to forecast the EAFB surface winds is called "wind cycling". This occurs when wind speeds and directions oscillate among towers near the EAFB runway leading to a challenging deorbit bum forecast for shuttle landings. The large-scale numerical weather prediction models cannot properly resolve the wind field due to their coarse horizontal resolutions, so a properly tuned high-resolution mesoscale model is needed. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model meets this requirement. The AMU assessed the different WRF model options to determine which configuration best predicted surface wind speed and direction at EAFB, To do so, the AMU compared the WRF model performance using two hot start initializations with the Advanced Research WRF and Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical cores and compared model performance while varying the physics options.

  16. The MST radar technique: Requirements for operational weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larsen, M. F.

    1983-01-01

    There is a feeling that the accuracy of mesoscale forecasts for spatial scales of less than 1000 km and time scales of less than 12 hours can be improved significantly if resources are applied to the problem in an intensive effort over the next decade. Since the most dangerous and damaging types of weather occur at these scales, there are major advantages to be gained if such a program is successful. The interest in improving short term forecasting is evident. The technology at the present time is sufficiently developed, both in terms of new observing systems and the computing power to handle the observations, to warrant an intensive effort to improve stormscale forecasting. An assessment of the extent to which the so-called MST radar technique fulfills the requirements for an operational mesoscale observing network is reviewed and the extent to which improvements in various types of forecasting could be expected if such a network is put into operation are delineated.

  17. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  18. Activity of Science and Operational Research of NICT Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishii, Mamoru; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Watari, Shinichi; Shinagawa, Hiroyuki; Tsugawa, Takuya; Kubo, Yuki

    Operational space weather forecast is for contribution to social infrastructure than for academic interests. These user need will determine the target of research, e.g., the precision level, spatial and temporal resolution and/or required lead time. We, NICT, aim two target in the present mid-term strategic plan, which are (1) forecast of ionospheric disturbance influencing to satellite positioning, and (2) forecast of disturbance in radiation belt influencing to satellite operation. We have our own observation network and develop empirical and numerical models for achieving each target. However in actual situation, it is much difficult to know the user needs quantitatively. Most of space weather phenomena makes the performance of social infrastructure poor, for example disconnect of HF communication, increase of GNSS error. Most of organizations related to these operation are negative to open these information. We have personal interviews to solve this issue. In this interview, we try to collect incident information related to space weather in each field, and to retrieve which space weather information is necessary for users. In this presentation we will introduce our research and corresponding new service, in addition to our recent scientific results.

  19. Space Weather: The Solar Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwenn, Rainer

    2006-12-01

    The term space weather refers to conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and that can affect human life and health. Our modern hi-tech society has become increasingly vulnerable to disturbances from outside the Earth system, in particular to those initiated by explosive events on the Sun: Flares release flashes of radiation that can heat up the terrestrial atmosphere such that satellites are slowed down and drop into lower orbits, solar energetic particles accelerated to near-relativistic energies may endanger astronauts traveling through interplanetary space, and coronal mass ejections are gigantic clouds of ionized gas ejected into interplanetary space that after a few hours or days may hit the Earth and cause geomagnetic storms. In this review, I describe the several chains of actions originating in our parent star, the Sun, that affect Earth, with particular attention to the solar phenomena and the subsequent effects in interplanetary space.

  20. Expert Systems and Weather Forecasting in the 4th and 5th Grade.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kirkwood, James J.; Gimblett, Randy H.

    1992-01-01

    Fourth and fifth graders built weather measuring instruments, entered data into a computer program that forecasted weather, and compared the resultant forecast with actual weather. As a result of their activities, students took a greater interest in weather phenomena, understood the computer program, and learned to think more logically. (LB)

  1. [50 years of the methodology of weather forecasting for medicine].

    PubMed

    Grigor'ev, K I; Povazhnaia, E L

    2014-01-01

    The materials reported in the present article illustrate the possibility of weather forecasting for the medical purposes in the historical aspect. The main characteristics of the relevant organizational and methodological approaches to meteoprophylaxis based of the standard medical forecasts are presented. The emphasis is laid on the priority of the domestic medical school in the development of the principles of diagnostics and treatment of meteosensitivity and meteotropic complications in the patients presenting with various diseases with special reference to their age-related characteristics.

  2. Improving GEFS Weather Forecasts for Indian Monsoon with Statistical Downscaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agrawal, Ankita; Salvi, Kaustubh; Ghosh, Subimal

    2014-05-01

    Weather forecast has always been a challenging research problem, yet of a paramount importance as it serves the role of 'key input' in formulating modus operandi for immediate future. Short range rainfall forecasts influence a wide range of entities, right from agricultural industry to a common man. Accurate forecasts actually help in minimizing the possible damage by implementing pre-decided plan of action and hence it is necessary to gauge the quality of forecasts which might vary with the complexity of weather state and regional parameters. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is one such perfect arena to check the quality of weather forecast not only because of the level of intricacy in spatial and temporal patterns associated with it, but also the amount of damage it can cause (because of poor forecasts) to the Indian economy by affecting agriculture Industry. The present study is undertaken with the rationales of assessing, the ability of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) in predicting ISMR over central India and the skill of statistical downscaling technique in adding value to the predictions by taking them closer to evidentiary target dataset. GEFS is a global numerical weather prediction system providing the forecast results of different climate variables at a fine resolution (0.5 degree and 1 degree). GEFS shows good skills in predicting different climatic variables but fails miserably over rainfall predictions for Indian summer monsoon rainfall, which is evident from a very low to negative correlation values between predicted and observed rainfall. Towards the fulfilment of second rationale, the statistical relationship is established between the reasonably well predicted climate variables (GEFS) and observed rainfall. The GEFS predictors are treated with multicollinearity and dimensionality reduction techniques, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Statistical relationship is

  3. Space Weathering on Airless Bodies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pieters, C. M.; Blewett, D. T.; Hiroi, T.; Marchi, S.; McFadden, L. A.; Noble, S. K.; De Sanctis, M. C.; Taylor, L. A.; Reddy, V.

    2012-12-01

    Space weathering refers to an array of processes that measurably alter the character of surfaces that are exposed to the space environment with time. Important observations and constraints come from integration of ground truth sample information and remotely sensed data for the surface. Currently, such combined sample and remote data are available for the Moon, a few near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), and Vesta. Although common processes exist on every planetary body visited, the character of surface alteration by space weathering on airless bodies is very dependent on the particular space environment and the geology and composition of the host. For the Moon, lunar samples have provided a direct link between exposure to the space environment and the development and accumulation of nanophase reduced iron (npFe^0) on soil grains [1]. The optical properties of npFe^0 are well defined experimentally [2]. The resulting effects on lunar materials include reduction of diagnostic absorption bands, prominence of a red-sloped near-infrared (NIR) continuum, and lower albedo [3]. For Eros and Hyabusa, two NEAs visited by spacecraft, similar, but less pronounced optical effects are observed [4]. The in situ Eros measurements and returned Hyabusa samples confirm both bodies are ordinary chondritic in composition despite the optical alteration of their surface [5]. The main-belt proto-planet Vesta has long been associated with HED basaltic achondrite meteorites [6]. Data from Dawn reveal an anti-correlation between mineral band strength and albedo often observed around fresh craters. However, no association is seen with NIR continuum slope implying little development of significant npFe^0 [7]. Several physical and compositional reasons that hinder npFe^0 creation on Vesta are now recognized; alteration processes are instead more linked with dispersal of opaques and regolith mixing processes [7, 8]. Space weathering and evolution of the optical properties of regolith on airless bodies

  4. A Coordinated Effort to Address Space Weather and Environment Needs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Minow, Joe; Spann, James F.; Edward, David L.; Burns, Howard D.; Gallagher, Dennis; Xapos, Mike; DeGroh, Kim

    2010-01-01

    The growing need for coordination of the many aspects of space environments is directly related to our increasing dependence on space assets. An obvious result is that there is a need for a coordinated effort to organize and make accessible the increasing number of space environment products that include space environment models and observations, material testing, and forecasting tools. This paper outlines a concept to establish a NASA-level Applied Spaceflight Environments (ASE) office that will provide coordination and funding for sustained multi-program support in three technical areas; (1) natural environments characterization and modeling, (2) environmental effects on materials and systems, (3) and operational and forecasting space environments modeling. Additionally the ASE office will serve as an entry point of contact for external users who wish to take advantage of data and assets associated with space environments, including space weather.

  5. Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Leela R.; Hoeth, Brian; Blottman, Peter F.

    2007-01-01

    Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation at the Shuttle Landing Facility is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF5), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. This study specifically addresses the skill of different model configurations in forecasting warm season convective initiation. Numerous factors influence the development of convection over the Florida peninsula. These factors include sea breezes, river and lake breezes, the prevailing low-level flow, and convergent flow due to convex coastlines that enhance the sea breeze. The interaction of these processes produces the warm season convective patterns seen over the Florida peninsula. However, warm season convection remains one of the most poorly forecast meteorological parameters. To determine which

  6. Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Leela R.; Hoeth, Brian; Blottman, Peter F.

    2007-01-01

    Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision at the Shuttle Landing Facility. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. Both the SMG and the MLB are currently implementing the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software into their operations. The WRF EMS software allows users to employ both dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model- the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many

  7. Investigating Space Weather Events Impacting the Spitzer Space Telescope

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cheng, Leo Y.; Hunt, Joseph C. Jr.; Stowers, Kennis; Lowrance, Patrick; Stewart, Andrzej; Travis, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Our understanding of the dynamical process in the space environment has increased dramatically. A relatively new field of study called "Space Weather" has emerged in the last few decades. Fundamental to the study of space weather is an understanding of how space weather events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections impact spacecraft in varying orbits and distances around the Sun. Specialized space weather satellite monitoring systems operated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) allow scientists to predict space weather events affecting critical systems on and orbiting the Earth. However, the Spitzer Space Telescope is in an orbit far outside the areas covered by those space weather monitoring systems. This poses a challenge for the Spitzer's Mission Operations Team in determining whether space weather events affect Spitzer.

  8. Transitioning Models and Model Output to Space Weather Operations: Challenges and Opportunities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael; Berrios, David; Chulaki, Anna; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; MacNeice, Peter J.; Maddox, Mario; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre

    2009-01-01

    The transition of space weather models or of information derived from space weather models to space weather forecasting is the last step of the chain from model development to model deployment in forecasting operations. As such, it is an extremely important element of the quest to increase our national capability to forecast and mitigate space weather hazards. It involves establishing customer requirements, and analyses of available models, which are, in principle, capable of delivering the required product. Models will have to be verified and validated prior to a selection of the best performing model. Further considerations include operational hardware, and the availability of data streams to drive the model. The final steps include the education of forecasters, and the implementation on gateway hardware prior to operational use. This presentation will provide a discussion of opportunities for rapid progress from the viewpoint of the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.

  9. Recent Activities on the Embrace Space Weather Regional Warning Center: the New Space Weather Data Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dal Lago, Alisson; Mendes, Odim; Batista, Inez S.; SantAnna, Nilson; Gatto, Rubens; Takahashi, Hisao; Costa, D. Joaquim; Banik Padua, Marcelo; Campos Velho, Haroldo

    2016-07-01

    On August 2007 the National Institute for Space Research started a task force to develop and operate a space weather program, which is known by the acronyms Embrace that stands for the Portuguese statement "Estudo e Monitoramento BRAasileiro de Clima Espacial" Program (Brazilian Space Weather Study and Monitoring program). The mission of the Embrace/INPE program is to monitor the Solar-Terrestrial environment, the magnetosphere, the upper atmosphere and the ground induced currents to prevent effects on technological and economic activities. The Embrace/INPE system monitors the physical parameters of the Sun-Earth environment, such as Active Regions (AR) in the Sun and solar radiation by using radio telescope, Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) information by satellite and ground-based cosmic ray monitoring, geomagnetic activity by the magnetometer network, and ionospheric disturbance by ionospheric sounders and using data collected by four GPS receiver network, geomagnetic activity by a magnetometer network, and provides a forecasting for Total Electronic Content (TEC) - 24 hours ahead - using a version of the SUPIM model which assimilates the two latter data using nudging approach. Most of these physical parameters are daily published on the Brazilian space weather program web portal, related to the entire network sensors available. Regarding outreach, it has being published a daily bulletin in Portuguese and English with the status of the space weather environment on the Sun, the Interplanetary Medium and close to the Earth. Since December 2011, all these activities are carried out at the Embrace Headquarter, a building located at the INPE's main campus. Recently, a comprehensive data bank and an interface layer are under commissioning to allow an easy and direct access to all the space weather data collected by Embrace through the Embrace web Portal. The information being released encompasses data from: (a) the Embrace Digisonde Network (Embrace DigiNet) that monitors

  10. Predicting Space Weather: Challenges for Research and Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singer, H. J.; Onsager, T. G.; Rutledge, R.; Viereck, R. A.; Kunches, J.

    2013-12-01

    Society's growing dependence on technologies and infrastructure susceptible to the consequences of space weather has given rise to increased attention at the highest levels of government as well as inspired the need for both research and improved space weather services. In part, for these reasons, the number one goal of the recent National Research Council report on a Decadal Strategy for Solar and Space Physics is to 'Determine the origins of the Sun's activity and predict the variations in the space environment.' Prediction of conditions in our space environment is clearly a challenge for both research and operations, and we require the near-term development and validation of models that have sufficient accuracy and lead time to be useful to those impacted by space weather. In this presentation, we will provide new scientific results of space weather conditions that have challenged space weather forecasters, and identify specific areas of research that can lead to improved capabilities. In addition, we will examine examples of customer impacts and requirements as well as the challenges to the operations community to establish metrics that enable the selection and transition of models and observations that can provide the greatest economic and societal benefit.

  11. Probabilistic regional wind power forecasts based on calibrated Numerical Weather Forecast ensembles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Späth, Stephan; von Bremen, Lueder; Junk, Constantin; Heinemann, Detlev

    2014-05-01

    With increasing shares of installed wind power in Germany, accurate forecasts of wind speed and power get increasingly important for the grid integration of Renewable Energies. Applications like grid management and trading also benefit from uncertainty information. This uncertainty information can be provided by ensemble forecasts. These forecasts often exhibit systematic errors such as biases and spread deficiencies. The errors can be reduced by statistical post-processing. We use forecast data from the regional Numerical Weather Prediction model COSMO-DE EPS as input to regional wind power forecasts. In order to enhance the power forecast, we first calibrate the wind speed forecasts against the model analysis, so some of the model's systematic errors can be removed. Wind measurements at every grid point are usually not available and as we want to conduct grid zone forecasts, the model analysis is the best target for calibration. We use forecasts from the COSMO-DE EPS, a high-resolution ensemble prediction system with 20 forecast members. The model covers the region of Germany and surroundings with a vertical resolution of 50 model levels and a horizontal resolution of 0.025 degrees (approximately 2.8 km). The forecast range is 21 hours with model output available on an hourly basis. Thus, we use it for shortest-term wind power forecasts. The COSMO-DE EPS was originally designed with a focus on forecasts of convective precipitation. The COSMO-DE EPS wind speed forecasts at hub height were post-processed by nonhomogenous Gaussian regression (NGR; Thorarinsdottir and Gneiting, 2010), a calibration method that fits a truncated normal distribution to the ensemble wind speed forecasts. As calibration target, the model analysis was used. The calibration is able to remove some deficits of the COSMO-DE EPS. In contrast to the raw ensemble members, the calibrated ensemble members do not show anymore the strong correlations with each other and the spread-skill relationship

  12. Monitoring space weather with the GOES magnetometers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singer, Howard; Matheson, Lorne; Grubb, Richard; Newman, Ann; Bouwer, David

    1996-10-01

    Magnetic field measurements have been made form geosynchronous orbit for more than 20 years. These measurements are important for monitoring 'space weather' and for providing a unique data base that can be used for improving our knowledge of the Earth's magnetosphere and solar-terrestrial interactions. This paper will focus on the variety of products and services provided by these measurements--those currently available, and those under consideration for the future. The magnetic field assist forecasters in qualitatively assessing the level of geomagnetic disturbance, to interpret changes in energetic particle measurements, to provide data to the National Geophysical Data Center, to support in real-time scientific activities such as rocket launches, and to conduct research for a better understanding of the space environment. One important use of magnetometer data in the Space Environment Center is to alert customers when shocks occur in the solar wind. These shocks have the potential for energizing particles to multi-MeV levels, causing Single Event Upsets in spacecraft electronics, and at lower energy ranges causing deep-dielectric charging that produces spacecraft anomalies. Data from the new GOES-8 and GOES-9 spacecraft will be discussed along with prospects for future products and services.

  13. Fine Forecasts: Encouraging the Media to Include Ultraviolet Radiation Information in Summertime Weather Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richards, R.; Reeder, A. I.; Bulliard, J.-L.

    2004-01-01

    Melanoma and skin cancer are largely attributable to over-exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR). Reports of UVR levels within media weather forecasts appear to be well received by the public and have good potential to communicate the need for appropriate sun protection to a broad audience. This study describes provision of UVR messages by…

  14. Impact of High Resolution SST Data on Regional Weather Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Case, Jonathon; LaFontaine, Frank; Vazquez, Jorge; Mattocks, Craig

    2010-01-01

    Past studies have shown that the use of coarse resolution SST products such as from the real-time global (RTG) SST analysis[1] or other coarse resolution once-a-day products do not properly portray the diurnal variability of fluxes of heat and moisture from the ocean that drive the formation of low level clouds and precipitation over the ocean. For example, the use of high resolution MODIS SST composite [2] to initialize the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) (ARW) [3] has been shown to improve the prediction of sensible weather parameters in coastal regions [4][5}. In an extend study, [6] compared the MODIS SST composite product to the RTG SST analysis and evaluated forecast differences for a 6 month period from March through August 2007 over the Florida coastal regions. In a comparison to buoy data, they found that that the MODIS SST composites reduced the bias and standard deviation over that of the RTG data. These improvements led to significant changes in the initial and forecasted heat fluxes and the resulting surface temperature fields, wind patterns, and cloud distributions. They also showed that the MODIS composite SST product, produced for the Terra and Aqua satellite overpass times, captured a component of the diurnal cycle in SSTs not represented in the RTG or other one-a-day SST analyses. Failure to properly incorporate these effects in the WRF initialization cycle led to temperature biases in the resulting short term forecasts. The forecast impact was limited in some situations however, due to composite product inaccuracies brought about by data latency during periods of long-term cloud cover. This paper focuses on the forecast impact of an enhanced MODIS/AMSR-E composite SST product designed to reduce inaccuracies due data latency in the MODIS only composite product.

  15. A case study of weather forecast methodology defined by students

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massetti, L.; Macario, M.; Bini, F.; Ugolini, F.; Marandola, D.; Lanini, M.; Raschi, A.

    2009-09-01

    One of the main priority for our future society is to increase the interest of young people in science and technology. The cooperation between researchers, who produce scientific knowledge, and teachers, who disseminate it among students, is an effective method to reach this goal. In fact Science dissemination at school, overseen by researchers, can be of mutual benefit because scientists can improve their communication skills and convey their enthusiasm for scientific research. The Institute of Biometeorology has been working on science dissemination for many years in many different topics like meteorology, carbon dioxide fluxes and greenhouse effect and phenology, relying mainly on practical experiences made by the students under the supervision of researchers. This presentation reports of some experimental activities on Meteorology done in Liceo Scientifico of Prato Italy. The aim of the activity was to define a methodology of weather forecasting based on clouds observation. At first the researchers present and discuss with the students the meaning and graphic representation of some meteorological parameters and the methodology to identify clouds type and characteristic. An automatic weather station was set up on the roof of the school and students practiced how to download data from the weather station. At the same time they carried on daily observation of presence and types of clouds in the sky. Then they analyzed meteorological data and particularly atmospheric pressure and air humidity and defined their own methodology to do forecast. Finally they validated their results by comparing them with the meteorological maps of the regional weather service.

  16. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  17. Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III; Hood, Doris

    2009-01-01

    Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and forecasters from the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violating the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) (Krider et al. 2006; Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR), NASA/JSC 2004)). As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool that creates an anvil threat corridor graphic that can be overlaid on satellite imagery using the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS, Short and Wheeler, 2002). The tool helps forecasters estimate the locations of thunderstorm anvils at one, two, and three hours into the future. It has been used extensively in launch and landing operations by both the 45 WS and SMG. The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) is now used along with MIDDS for weather analysis and display at SMG. In Phase I of this task, SMG tasked the AMU to transition the tool from MIDDS to AWIPS (Barrett et aI., 2007). For Phase II, SMG requested the AMU make the Anvil Forecast Tool in AWIPS more configurable by creating the capability to read model gridded data from user-defined model files instead of hard-coded files. An NWS local AWIPS application called AGRID was used to accomplish this. In addition, SMG needed to be able to define the pressure levels for the model data, instead of hard-coding the bottom level as 300 mb and the top level as 150 mb. This paper describes the initial development of the Anvil Forecast Tool for MIDDS, followed by the migration of the tool to AWIPS in Phase I. It then gives a detailed presentation of the Phase II improvements to the AWIPS tool.

  18. New Space Weather Systems Under Development and Their Contribution to Space Weather Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobiska, W.; Bouwer, D.; Schunk, R.; Garrett, H.; Mertens, C.; Bowman, B.

    2008-12-01

    There have been notable successes during the past decade in the development of operational space environment systems. Examples include the Magnetospheric Specification Model (MSM) of the Earth's magnetosphere, 2000; SOLAR2000 (S2K) solar spectral irradiances, 2001; High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) neutral atmosphere densities, 2004; Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) ionosphere specification, 2006; Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) solar wind parameters, 2007; Communication Alert and Prediction System (CAPS) ionosphere, high frequency radio, and scintillation S4 index prediction, 2008; and GEO Alert and Prediction System (GAPS) geosynchronous environment satellite charging specification and forecast, 2008. Operational systems that are in active operational implementation include the Jacchia-Bowman 2006/2008 (JB2006/2008) neutral atmosphere, 2009, and the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) aviation radiation model using the Radiation Alert and Prediction System (RAPS), 2010. U.S. national agency and commercial assets will soon reach a state where specification and prediction will become ubiquitous and where coordinated management of the space environment and space weather will become a necessity. We describe the status of the CAPS, GAPS, RAPS, and JB2008 operational development. We additionally discuss the conditions that are laying the groundwork for space weather management and estimate the unfilled needs as we move beyond specification and prediction efforts.

  19. Development of a High Resolution Weather Forecast Model for Mesoamerica Using the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molthan, Andrew L.; Case, Jonathan L.; Venner, Jason; Moreno-Madrinan, Max. J.; Delgado, Francisco

    2012-01-01

    Over the past two years, scientists in the Earth Science Office at NASA fs Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have explored opportunities to apply cloud computing concepts to support near real ]time weather forecast modeling via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Collaborators at NASA fs Short ]term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and the SERVIR project at Marshall Space Flight Center have established a framework that provides high resolution, daily weather forecasts over Mesoamerica through use of the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Platform at Ames Research Center. Supported by experts at Ames, staff at SPoRT and SERVIR have established daily forecasts complete with web graphics and a user interface that allows SERVIR partners access to high resolution depictions of weather in the next 48 hours, useful for monitoring and mitigating meteorological hazards such as thunderstorms, heavy precipitation, and tropical weather that can lead to other disasters such as flooding and landslides. This presentation will describe the framework for establishing and providing WRF forecasts, example applications of output provided via the SERVIR web portal, and early results of forecast model verification against available surface ] and satellite ]based observations.

  20. Space Weather Modeling at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse M.

    2005-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the rapid prototyping centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires dose collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as distributed computing facilities provided by the US Air Force. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide updates on CCMC status, on current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and on the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.

  1. Space Weather Modeling Services at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael

    2006-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the Rapid Prototyping Centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires close collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide a description of the current CCMC status, discuss current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and describe the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.

  2. High-latitude space weather monitoring in Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulich, Th.

    2009-04-01

    Today, space weather is of important concern in many respects. Space weather phenomena are subject of extensive scientific research programmes and the consequences of space weather events are of great operational concern for a number of technologies including satellites, humans in space, and global positioning and communications. Due to the Earth's magnetic field, the high latitudes are most strongly affected by space weather phenomena. Naturally, monitoring and understanding of the high-latitude space environment is important for forecasting and modelling operational conditions. The Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory (SGO) was established as a magnetic observatory in 1913. With the sole exception of a year at the end of WWII, the record of geomagnetic field variations is continuous. Since the IGY in 1957, many other routine measurements have been added to the observatory's operations and today SGO is a highly versatile observatory. Here we will present examples of high-latitude space weather data from a selection of instruments including the Sodankylä ionosonde, the Finnish Riometer Chain, and the Tomography (GNSS) receiver chain. We invite collaboration and use of our data products. We will further outline the current EU Framework VII "Access to Research Infrastructures" project of SGO "LAPBIAT2."

  3. Recent results from the GISS model of the global atmosphere. [circulation simulation for weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Somerville, R. C. J.

    1975-01-01

    Large numerical atmospheric circulation models are in increasingly widespread use both for operational weather forecasting and for meteorological research. The results presented here are from a model developed at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and described in detail by Somerville et al. (1974). This model is representative of a class of models, recently surveyed by the Global Atmospheric Research Program (1974), designed to simulate the time-dependent, three-dimensional, large-scale dynamics of the earth's atmosphere.

  4. Space Radiation Protection, Space Weather, and Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zapp, Neal; Fry, Dan; Lee, Kerry

    2010-01-01

    Management of crew exposure to radiation is a major concern for manned spaceflight and will be even more important for the modern concept of longer-duration exploration. The inherent protection afforded to astronauts by the magnetic field of the Earth in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) makes operations on the space shuttle or space station very different from operations during a deep space exploration mission. In order to experience significant radiation-derived Loss of Mission (LOM) or Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for LEO operations, one is almost driven to dictate extreme duration or to dictate an extreme sequence of solar activity. Outside of the geo-magnetosphere, however, this scenario changes dramatically. Exposures to the same event on the ISS and on the surface of the Moon may differ by multiple orders of magnitude. This change in magnitude, coupled with the logistical constraints present in implementing any practical operational mitigation make situational awareness with regard to space weather a limiting factor for our ability to conduct exploration operations. With these differences in risk to crew, vehicle and mission in mind, we present the status of the efforts currently underway as the required development to enable exploration operations. The changes in the operating environment as crewed operations begin to stretch away from the Earth are changing the way we think about the lines between research and operations . The real, practical work to enable a permanent human presence away from Earth has already begun

  5. Understanding Space Weather: The Sun as a Variable Star

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strong, Keith; Saba, Julia; Kucera, Therese

    2012-01-01

    The Sun is a complex system of systems and until recently, less than half of its surface was observable at any given time and then only from afar. New observational techniques and modeling capabilities are giving us a fresh perspective of the solar interior and how our Sun works as a variable star. This revolution in solar observations and modeling provides us with the exciting prospect of being able to use a vastly increased stream of solar data taken simultaneously from several different vantage points to produce more reliable and prompt space weather forecasts. Solar variations that cause identifiable space weather effects do not happen only on solar-cycle timescales from decades to centuries; there are also many shorter-term events that have their own unique space weather effects and a different set of challenges to understand and predict, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind variations.

  6. Understanding Space Weather: The Sun as a Variable Star

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strong, Keith; Saba, Julia; Kucera, Therese

    2011-01-01

    The Sun is a complex system of systems and until recently, less than half of its surface was observable at any given time and then only from afar. New observational techniques and modeling capabilities are giving us a fresh perspective of the solar interior and how our Sun works as a variable star. This revolution in solar observations and modeling provides us with the exciting prospect of being able to use a vastly increased stream of solar data taken simultaneously from several different vantage points to produce more reliable and prompt space weather forecasts. Solar variations that cause identifiable space weather effects do not happen only on solar-cycle timescales from decades to centuries; there are also many shorter-term events that have their own unique space weather effects and a different set of challenges to understand and predict, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind variations

  7. Improving High-resolution Weather Forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with Upgraded Kain-Fritsch Cumulus Scheme

    EPA Science Inventory

    High-resolution weather forecasting is affected by many aspects, i.e. model initial conditions, subgrid-scale cumulus convection and cloud microphysics schemes. Recent 12km grid studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model have identified the importance of inco...

  8. Concept for an International Standard related to Space Weather Effects on Space Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobiska, W. Kent; Tomky, Alyssa

    There is great interest in developing an international standard related to space weather in order to specify the tools and parameters needed for space systems operations. In particular, a standard is important for satellite operators who may not be familiar with space weather. In addition, there are others who participate in space systems operations that would also benefit from such a document. For example, the developers of software systems that provide LEO satellite orbit determination, radio communication availability for scintillation events (GEO-to-ground L and UHF bands), GPS uncertainties, and the radiation environment from ground-to-space for commercial space tourism. These groups require recent historical data, current epoch specification, and forecast of space weather events into their automated or manual systems. Other examples are national government agencies that rely on space weather data provided by their organizations such as those represented in the International Space Environment Service (ISES) group of 14 national agencies. Designers, manufacturers, and launchers of space systems require real-time, operational space weather parameters that can be measured, monitored, or built into automated systems. Thus, a broad scope for the document will provide a useful international standard product to a variety of engineering and science domains. The structure of the document should contain a well-defined scope, consensus space weather terms and definitions, and internationally accepted descriptions of the main elements of space weather, its sources, and its effects upon space systems. Appendices will be useful for describing expanded material such as guidelines on how to use the standard, how to obtain specific space weather parameters, and short but detailed descriptions such as when best to use some parameters and not others; appendices provide a path for easily updating the standard since the domain of space weather is rapidly changing with new advances

  9. Calls Forecast for the Moscow Ambulance Service. The Impact of Weather Forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gordin, Vladimir; Bykov, Philipp

    2015-04-01

    We use the known statistics of the calls for the current and previous days to predict them for tomorrow and for the following days. We assume that this algorithm will work operatively, will cyclically update the available information and will move the horizon of the forecast. Sure, the accuracy of such forecasts depends on their lead time, and from a choice of some group of diagnoses. For comparison we used the error of the inertial forecast (tomorrow there will be the same number of calls as today). Our technology has demonstrated accuracy that is approximately two times better compared to the inertial forecast. We obtained the following result: the number of calls depends on the actual weather in the city as well as on its rate of change. We were interested in the accuracy of the forecast for 12-hour sum of the calls in real situations. We evaluate the impact of the meteorological errors [1] on the forecast errors of the number of Ambulance calls. The weather and the Ambulance calls number both have seasonal tendencies. Therefore, if we have medical information from one city only, we should separate the impacts of such predictors as "annual variations in the number of calls" and "weather". We need to consider the seasonal tendencies (associated, e. g. with the seasonal migration of the population) and the impact of the air temperature simultaneously, rather than sequentially. We forecasted separately the number of calls with diagnoses of cardiovascular group, where it was demonstrated the advantage of the forecasting method, when we use the maximum daily air temperature as a predictor. We have a chance to evaluate statistically the influence of meteorological factors on the dynamics of medical problems. In some cases it may be useful for understanding of the physiology of disease and possible treatment options. We can assimilate some personal archives of medical parameters for the individuals with concrete diseases and the relative meteorological archive. As a

  10. Engaging Earth- and Environmental-Science Undergraduates through Weather Discussions and an eLearning Weather Forecasting Contest

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schultz, David M.; Anderson, Stuart; Seo-Zindy, Ryo

    2013-01-01

    For students who major in meteorology, engaging in weather forecasting can motivate learning, develop critical-thinking skills, improve their written communication, and yield better forecasts. Whether such advances apply to students who are not meteorology majors has been less demonstrated. To test this idea, a weather discussion and an eLearning…

  11. Interactive Visual Contextualization of Space Weather Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Törnros, M.; Ynnerman, A.; Emmart, C.; Berrios, D.; Harberts, R.

    2012-12-01

    Linköping University, the American Museum of Natural History (AMNH), and the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center are collaborating on a new open source visualization software for astrovisualization. The CCMC is providing real-time and historical space weather data from the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA), including timely modeled coronal mass ejection events simulated by the Space Weather Research Center at NASA GSFC. Linköping University is developing a new modular visualization tool with multi-channel capabilities to support planetarium exhibits, displaying the real-time space weather data contextualized using fieldlines, volumetric visualization techniques, and planetary information. This collaboration aims to engage the public about space weather and real-time events at the AMNH. We present an overview of this collaboration and demo some of the capabilities.

  12. On the Relations of Cosmic Rays to Space Weather Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kudela, K.; Bobik, P.

    2010-04-01

    The recent progress in using cosmic ray measurements for space weather research is shortly summarized based mainly on selected papers published during past three years. Two problems are touched, namely (i) potential possibilities of the forecast of radiation hazard storms, and (ii) possibilities and limitations of using neutron monitors, muon telescopes and other experimental ground based devices for alerts before the geoeffective events, mainly geomagnetic storms.

  13. Toward Application of Lightning Observations to Weather Forecasts and Warnings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macgorman, D. R.

    2002-12-01

    Once lightning mapping systems became fast enough to locate lightning in real or near-real time, it became possible to consider applications of lightning data to weather operations. The first system to be used routinely in such a way was the LLP direction-finder network deployed around 1980 by the Bureau of Land Management to help detect range and forest fires started by cloud-to-ground lightning. In 1987, a federal interagency group collaborated with the State University of New York at Albany to put together a trial National Lightning Detection Network for a three-year evaluation of possible applications to weather operations. During this trial, the National Weather Service determined that the lightning ground-strike data are useful for detecting the presence, configuration, and evolution of storms and storm systems, and so subsequently procured lightning strike mapping data for federal use that has continued to the present. Research since then has suggested that detection of positive cloud-to-ground lightning may also be useful, when combined with radar data, to help identify some severe storms, though the conditions under which this is possible are still being investigated. Furthermore, cloud-to-ground flash data can be assimilated into forecast models to improve the initial conditions, and hence the forecasts, of the models. More recently technology has advanced to the point that mapping all types of lightning is feasible. Because typically more than 70% of the lightning flashes produced by a storm do not strike ground, such technologies, at a minimum, would increase sampling rates to identify thunderstorms more quickly and reliably. However, different types of lightning also provide different information about storms. Cloud-to-ground lightning tends to indicate the formation and descent of precipitation, while cloud flash rates appear to be associated more closely with updraft and graupel evolution. Research is underway to determine and quantify these

  14. Solar thematic maps for space weather operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rigler, E. Joshua; Hill, Steven M.; Reinard, Alysha A.; Steenburgh, Robert A.

    2012-08-01

    Thematic maps are arrays of labels, or "themes," associated with discrete locations in space and time. Borrowing heavily from the terrestrial remote sensing discipline, a numerical technique based on Bayes' theorem captures operational expertise in the form of trained theme statistics, then uses this to automatically assign labels to solar image pixels. Ultimately, regular thematic maps of the solar corona will be generated from high-cadence, high-resolution SUVI images, the solar ultraviolet imager slated to fly on NOAA's next-generation GOES-R series of satellites starting ˜2016. These thematic maps will not only provide quicker, more consistent synoptic views of the sun for space weather forecasters, but digital thematic pixel masks (e.g., coronal hole, active region, flare, etc.), necessary for a new generation of operational solar data products, will be generated. This paper presents the mathematical underpinnings of our thematic mapper, as well as some practical algorithmic considerations. Then, using images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Advanced Imaging Array (AIA) as test data, it presents results from validation experiments designed to ascertain the robustness of the technique with respect to differing expert opinions and changing solar conditions.

  15. Solar thematic maps for space weather operations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rigler, E. Joshua; Hill, Steven M.; Reinard, Alysha A.; Steenburgh, Robert A.

    2012-01-01

    Thematic maps are arrays of labels, or "themes", associated with discrete locations in space and time. Borrowing heavily from the terrestrial remote sensing discipline, a numerical technique based on Bayes' theorem captures operational expertise in the form of trained theme statistics, then uses this to automatically assign labels to solar image pixels. Ultimately, regular thematic maps of the solar corona will be generated from high-cadence, high-resolution SUVI images, the solar ultraviolet imager slated to fly on NOAA's next-generation GOES-R series of satellites starting ~2016. These thematic maps will not only provide quicker, more consistent synoptic views of the sun for space weather forecasters, but digital thematic pixel masks (e.g., coronal hole, active region, flare, etc.), necessary for a new generation of operational solar data products, will be generated. This paper presents the mathematical underpinnings of our thematic mapper, as well as some practical algorithmic considerations. Then, using images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Advanced Imaging Array (AIA) as test data, it presents results from validation experiments designed to ascertain the robustness of the technique with respect to differing expert opinions and changing solar conditions.

  16. Forecast skill of a high-resolution real-time mesoscale model designed for weather support of operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, Gregory E.; Zack, John W.; Manobianco, John

    1994-01-01

    NASA funded Mesoscale Environmental Simulations and Operations (MESO), Inc. to develop a version of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS). The model has been modified specifically for short-range forecasting in the vicinity of KSC/CCAS. To accomplish this, the model domain has been limited to increase the number of horizontal grid points (and therefore grid resolution) and the model' s treatment of precipitation, radiation, and surface hydrology physics has been enhanced to predict convection forced by local variations in surface heat, moisture fluxes, and cloud shading. The objective of this paper is to (1) provide an overview of MASS including the real-time initialization and configuration for running the data pre-processor and model, and (2) to summarize the preliminary evaluation of the model's forecasts of temperature, moisture, and wind at selected rawinsonde station locations during February 1994 and July 1994. MASS is a hydrostatic, three-dimensional modeling system which includes schemes to represent planetary boundary layer processes, surface energy and moisture budgets, free atmospheric long and short wave radiation, cloud microphysics, and sub-grid scale moist convection.

  17. Space Radiation Protection, Space Weather, and Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zapp, Neal; Rutledge, R.; Semones, E. J.; Johnson, A. S.; Guetersloh, S.; Fry, D.; Stoffle, N.; Lee, K.

    2008-01-01

    Management of crew exposure to radiation is a major concern for manned spaceflight -- and will be even more important for the modern concept of longer-duration exploration. The inherent protection afforded to astronauts by the magnetic field of the Earth in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) makes operations on the space shuttle or space station very different from operations during an exploration mission. In order to experience significant radiation-derived Loss of Mission (LOM) or Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for LEO operations, one is almost driven to dictate extreme duration or to dictate an extreme sequence of solar activity. Outside of the geo-magnetosphere, however, this scenario changes dramatically. Exposures to the same event on the ISS and on the surface of the Moon may differ by multiple orders of magnitude. This change in magnitude, coupled with the logistical constraints present in implementing any practical operational mitigation make situational awareness with regard to space weather a limiting factor for our ability to conduct exploration operations. With these differences in risk to crew, vehicle and mission in mind, we present the status of the efforts currently underway as the required development to enable exploration operations. The changes in the operating environment as crewed operations begin to stretch away from the Earth are changing the way we think about the lines between "research" and "operations". The real, practical work to enable a permanent human presence away from Earth has already begun.

  18. Fifth Space Weather Enterprise Forum Reaches New Heights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williamson, Samuel P.; Babcock, Michael R.; Bonadonna, Michael F.

    2011-09-01

    As the world's commercial infrastructure grows more dependent on sensitive electronics and space-based technologies, the global economy is becoming increasingly vulnerable to solar storms. Experts from the federal government, academia, and the private sector met to discuss the societal effects of major solar storms and other space weather at the fifth annual Space Weather Enterprise Forum (SWEF), held on 21 June 2011 at the National Press Club in Washington, D. C. More than 200 members of the space weather community attended this year's SWEF, which focused on the consequences of severe space weather for national security, critical infrastructure, and human safety. Participants also addressed the question of how to prepare for and mitigate those consequences as the current solar cycle approaches and reaches its peak, expected in 2013. This year's forum included details of plans for a "Unified National Space Weather Capability," a new interagency initiative which will be implemented over the next two years, designed to improve forecasting, warning, and other services ahead of the coming solar maximum.

  19. Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Leela R.; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian

    2010-01-01

    Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) at Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. The original LDIS was developed by NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU; Bauman et ai, 2004) in 1998 (Manobianco and Case 1998) and has undergone subsequent improvements. Each has benefited from three-dimensional (3-D) analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features

  20. The International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davila, Joseph M.

    2010-01-01

    The International Heliophysical Year (IHY) provided a successful model for the deployment of arrays of small scientific instruments in new and scientifically interesting geographic locations, and outreach. The new International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is designed to build on this momentum to promote the observation, understanding, and prediction space weather phenomena, and to communicate the scientific results to the public.

  1. Space weather in the EU's FP7 Space Theme. Preface to the special issue on "EU-FP7 funded space weather projects"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiarini, Paola

    2013-11-01

    Technological infrastructures in space and on ground provide services on which modern society and economies rely. Space weather related research is funded under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (FP7) of the European Union in response to the need of protecting such critical infrastructures from the damage which could be caused by extreme space weather events. The calls for proposals published under the topic "Security of space assets from space weather events" of the FP7 Space Theme aimed to improve forecasts and predictions of disruptive space weather events as well as identify best practices to limit the impacts on space- and ground-based infrastructures and their data provision. Space weather related work was also funded under the topic "Exploitation of space science and exploration data", which aims to add value to space missions and Earth-based observations by contributing to the effective scientific exploitation of collected data. Since 2007 a total of 20 collaborative projects have been funded, covering a variety of physical phenomena associated with space weather, from ionospheric disturbances and scintillation, to geomagnetically induced currents at Earth's surface, to coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particles. This article provides an overview of the funded projects, touching upon some results and referring to specific websites for a more exhaustive description of the projects' outcomes.

  2. Possible ways of space weather prediction improvement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khabarova, O. V.

    2012-04-01

    Most popular short-term space weather prognoses are based on CME-like solar wind conditions' analysis. Short-term forecasts of severe magnetic storms using such a prognostic scheme are rather accurate, but sometimes are not actual due to too short alert time. Moreover, the number of severe storms is 10 times less than the weak magnetic storms' number. At the same time, the quality of weak and moderate magnetic storms forecast is poor for both short-term and medium-term prognoses, especially at a solar minimum. It is found that physical origin of weak and moderate magnetic storms is much closer to substorms' than to severe magnetic storms' nature; that is why CME-condition- based prognoses fail very often for mild geomagnetic storms [1]. Case studies and statistical analysis show that a mechanism of weak and moderate magnetic storms' development could be explained by excitation and compression of the magnetosphere by the SW density sharp increase in a combination with the southward-directed IMF. Sometimes there is a time delay up to several hours between the geoeffective density increase and the negative Bz IMF component's observation [1, 2]. The role of the solar wind velocity in the stimulation of the reconnection in the magnetotail is found out to be negligible for weak or moderate magnetic storms and essential for intensive and severe geomagnetic storms. So, a consideration of high-speed SW streams and the southward IMF direction as a main cause of a geomagnetic storm is correct for storms with Dst<-100nT only. Additionally, there are evidences that a weak increase of the SW density, as well as increased SW turbulence in the ULF diapason one-three days before a geomagnetic storm onset could be considered as a prognostic factor [1, 2]. Therefore, more deep investigation of weak (but not severe) magnetic storms' origin is a main key of future success of space weather prediction. 1. Khabarova O.V., Current Problems of Magnetic Storm Prediction and Possible Ways of

  3. Assessments of Total Lightning Data Utility in Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buechler, Dennis E.; Goodman, Steve; LaCasse, Katherine; Blakeslee, Richard; Darden, Chris

    2005-01-01

    National Weather Service forecasters in Huntsville, Alabama have had access to total lightning data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) since 2003. Forecasters can monitor real-time total lightning observations on their AWIPS (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) workstations. The lightning data is used to supplement other observations such as radar and satellite data. The lightning data is updated every 2 min, providing more timely evidence of storm growth or decay than is available from 5 min radar scans. Total lightning observations have been used to positively impact warning decisions in a number of instances. A number of approaches are being pursued to assess the usefulness of total lightning measurements to the operational forecasting community in the warning decision process. These approaches, which include both qualitative and quantitative assessment methods, will be discussed. submitted to the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data to be held in San Diego, CA January 9-13,2005. This will be a presentation and an extended abstract will be published on a CD available from the AMS.

  4. Competitive Learning Experiences: The Role of Weather Forecasting Contests in Geography Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harrington, John A., Jr.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Employs weather forecasting contests as a strategy for teaching about the weather, climate, and atmosphere. States that competency in understanding concepts and the ability to develop logical constructs about atmospheric processes are enhanced. Includes suggestions for teaching weather forecasting at all grade levels, and describes a contest at…

  5. Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Leela R.; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian

    2010-01-01

    /Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS), as well as the Kennedy Space Center ICape Canaveral Air Force Station wind tower network. The scripts provide NWS MLB and SMG with several options for setting a desirable runtime configuration of the LDIS to account for adjustments in grid spacing, domain location, choice of observational data sources, and selection of background model fields, among others. The utility of an improved LDIS will be demonstrated through postanalysis warm and cool season case studies that compare high-resolution model output with and without the ADAS analyses. Operationally, these upgrades will result in more accurate depictions of the current local environment to help with short-range weather forecasting applications, while also offering an improved initialization for local versions of the Weather Research and Forecasting model.

  6. Impact of various observing systems on weather analysis and forecast over the Indian region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Randhir; Ojha, Satya P.; Kishtawal, C. M.; Pal, P. K.

    2014-09-01

    To investigate the potential impact of various types of data on weather forecast over the Indian region, a set of data-denial experiments spanning the entire month of July 2012 is executed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system. The experiments are designed to allow the assessment of mass versus wind observations and terrestrial versus space-based instruments, to evaluate the relative importance of the classes of conventional instrument such as radiosonde, and finally to investigate the role of individual spaceborne instruments. The moist total energy norm is used for validation and forecast skill assessment. The results show that the contribution of wind observations toward error reduction is larger than mass observations in the short range (48 h) forecast. Terrestrial-based observations generally contribute more than space-based observations except for the moisture fields, where the role of the space-based instruments becomes more prevalent. Only about 50% of individual instruments are found to be beneficial in this experiment configuration, with the most important role played by radiosondes. Thereafter, Meteosat Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) (only for short range forecast) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) are second and third, followed by surface observations, Sounder for Probing Vertical Profiles of Humidity (SAPHIR) radiances and pilot observations. Results of the additional experiments of comparative performance of SSM/I total precipitable water (TPW), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), and SAPHIR radiances indicate that SSM/I is the most important instrument followed by SAPHIR and MHS for improving the quality of the forecast over the Indian region. Further, the impact of single SAPHIR instrument (onboard Megha-Tropiques) is significantly larger compared to three MHS instruments (onboard NOAA-18/19 and MetOp-A).

  7. Space Weather Models, Tools and Services at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Maddox, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Berrios, D.; Pulkkinen, A.; Zheng, Y.; MacNeice, P. J.; Shim, J.; Takakishvili, A.; Chulaki, A.

    2010-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. Space weather models and coupled model chains hosted at the CCMC range from the solar corona to the Earth's upper atmosphere. CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as a large number of modeling and data products tailored to address the space weather needs of NASA's robotic missions. The presentation will demonstrate the rapid progress towards development the system allowing using products derived from space weather models in applications associated with National Space Weather needs. The adaptable Integrated Space Weather Analysis (ISWA) System developed at CCMC for NASA-relevant space weather information combines forecasts based on advanced space weather models hosted at CCMC with concurrent space environment information. The system is also enabling post-impact analysis and flexible dissemination of space weather information.

  8. Resource Letter SW1: Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Daniel N.; Lanzerotti, Louis J.

    2016-03-01

    This Resource Letter describes the phenomena and effects on technological systems that are known collectively as space weather. A brief history of the topic is provided, and the scientific understandings of drivers for such phenomena are discussed. The impacts of space disturbances are summarized, and the strategies for dealing with space weather threats are examined. The Resource Letter concludes with description of approaches that have been proposed to deal with threats to our increasingly technological society.

  9. Operational Numerical Weather Prediction at the Met Office and potential ways forward for operational space weather prediction systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jackson, David

    NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar

  10. Intuitive Space Weather Displays to Improve Space Situational Awareness (SSA)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-09-01

    Kathy Echiverri, and Lauri Cross (PatchPlus Consulting), and Seth Orloff, and Lydia Lavigne (Ball Aerospace), Kevin Scro (Air Force Space Command...Paul O’Brien (Aerospace Corp), and Paul Gehred (Air Force Weather Agency). 6. References [1] Reeves, G . 2010. Integration of Space Weather into Space

  11. GEO Satellites as Space Weather Sensors

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-04-26

    Solar   Energy ,  Jan.  2016.     Lohmeyer,  W.  and  K.  Cahoy,  “Space  Weather  Radiation  Effects  on...Journal of Solar Energy , Jan. 2016. Lohmeyer, W. and K. Cahoy, "Space Weather Radiation Effects on Geostationary Satellite Solid-State Power Amplifiers...34 submitted for publication in the Journal of Solar Energy , Jan. 2016. Lohmeyer, W. and K. Cahoy, "Space Weather Radiation Effects on

  12. Engaging Earth- and Environmental-Science Undergraduates Through Weather Discussions and an eLearning Weather Forecasting Contest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, David M.; Anderson, Stuart; Seo-Zindy, Ryo

    2013-06-01

    For students who major in meteorology, engaging in weather forecasting can motivate learning, develop critical-thinking skills, improve their written communication, and yield better forecasts. Whether such advances apply to students who are not meteorology majors has been less demonstrated. To test this idea, a weather discussion and an eLearning weather forecasting contest were devised for a meteorology course taken by third-year undergraduate earth- and environmental-science students. The discussion consisted of using the recent, present, and future weather to amplify the topics of the week's lectures. Then, students forecasted the next day's high temperature and the probability of precipitation for Woodford, the closest official observing site to Manchester, UK. The contest ran for 10 weeks, and the students received credit for participation. The top students at the end of the contest received bonus points on their final grade. A Web-based forecast contest application was developed to register the students, receive their forecasts, and calculate weekly standings. Students who were successful in the forecast contest were not necessarily those who achieved the highest scores on the tests, demonstrating that the contest was possibly testing different skills than traditional learning. Student evaluations indicate that the weather discussion and contest were reasonably successful in engaging students to learn about the weather outside of the classroom, synthesize their knowledge from the lectures, and improve their practical understanding of the weather. Therefore, students taking a meteorology class, but not majoring in meteorology, can derive academic benefits from weather discussions and forecast contests. Nevertheless, student evaluations also indicate that better integration of the lectures, weather discussions, and the forecasting contests is necessary.

  13. Discover Space Weather and Sun's Superpowers: Using CCMC's innovative tools and applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendoza, A. M. M.; Maddox, M. M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Chulaki, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Mullinix, R.; Weigand, C.; Boblitt, J.; Taktakishvili, A.; MacNeice, P. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Pembroke, A. D.; Mays, M. L.; Zheng, Y.; Shim, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has developed a comprehensive set of tools and applications that are directly applicable to space weather and space science education. These tools, some of which were developed by our student interns, are capable of serving a wide range of student audiences, from middle school to postgraduate research. They include a web-based point of access to sophisticated space physics models and visualizations, and a powerful space weather information dissemination system, available on the web and as a mobile app. In this demonstration, we will use CCMC's innovative tools to engage the audience in real-time space weather analysis and forecasting and will share some of our interns' hands-on experiences while being trained as junior space weather forecasters. The main portals to CCMC's educational material are ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov and iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov

  14. Space Weather: What is it, and Why Should a Meteorologist Care?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    SaintCyr, Chris; Murtagh, Bill

    2008-01-01

    "Space weather" is a term coined almost 15 years ago to describe environmental conditions ABOVE Earth's atmosphere that affect satellites and astronauts. As society has become more dependent on technology, we nave found that space weather conditions increasingly affect numerous commercial and infrastructure sectors: airline operations, the precision positioning industry, and the electric power grid, to name a few. Similar to meteorology where "weather" often refers to severe conditions, "space weather" includes geomagnetic storms, radiation storms, and radio blackouts. But almost all space weather conditions begin at the Sun--our middle-age, magnetically-variable star. At NASA, the science behind space weather takes place in the Heliophysics Division. The Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, is manned jointly by NCAA and US Air Force personnel, and it provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth. Organizationally, it resides in NOAA's National Weather Service as one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. In this seminar we hope to give the audience a brief introduction to the causes of space weather, discuss some of the effects, and describe the state of the art in forecasting. Our goal is to highlight that meteorologists are increasingly becoming the "first responders" to questions about space weather causes and effects.

  15. Advancing Space Weather Modeling Capabilities at the CCMC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mays, M. Leila; Kuznetsova, Maria; Boblitt, Justin; Chulaki, Anna; MacNeice, Peter; Mendoza, Michelle; Mullinix, Richard; Pembroke, Asher; Pulkkinen, Antti; Rastaetter, Lutz; Shim, Ja Soon; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Wiegand, Chiu; Zheng, Yihua

    2016-04-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) serves as a community access point to an expanding collection of state-of-the-art space environment models and as a hub for collaborative development on next generation of space weather forecasting systems. In partnership with model developers and the international research and operational communities, the CCMC integrates new data streams and models from diverse sources into end-to-end space weather predictive systems, identifies weak links in data-model & model-model coupling and leads community efforts to fill those gaps. The presentation will focus on the latest model installations at the CCMC and advances in CCMC-led community-wide model validation projects.

  16. Space Weather Research in Greece: The Solar Energetic Particle Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malandraki, Olga E.

    2015-03-01

    Space Weather Research carried out in the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), within the SEPServer and COMESEP projects under the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-SPACE) of the European Union (EU) is presented. Results and services that these projects provide to the whole scientific community as well as stakeholders are underlined. NOA strongly contributes in terms of crucial Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) dataset provided, data analysis and SEP catalogue items provided as well as comparative results of the various components of the project server, greatly facilitating the investigation of SEPs and their origin. SEP research highlights carried out at NOA are also presented, used to test and validate the particle SEP model developed and incorporated within the SEP forecasting tools of the COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP) Space Weather Alert System, i.e. the First European Alert System for geomagnetic storms and SEP radiation hazards.

  17. Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dreher, Joseph; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian; Van Speybroeck, Kurt

    2009-01-01

    The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) is responsible for providing meteorological support to state and county emergency management agencies across East Central Florida in the event of incidents involving the significant release of harmful chemicals, radiation, and smoke from fires and/or toxic plumes into the atmosphere. NWS MLB uses the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to provide trajectory, concentration, and deposition guidance during such events. Accurate and timely guidance is critical for decision makers charged with protecting the health and well-being of populations at risk. Information that can describe the geographic extent of areas possibly affected by a hazardous release, as well as to indicate locations of primary concern, offer better opportunity for prompt and decisive action. In addition, forecasters at the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have expressed interest in using the HYSPLIT model to assist with Weather Flight Rules during Space Shuttle landing operations. In particular, SMG would provide low and mid-level HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts for cumulus clouds associated with smoke plumes, and high-level trajectory forecasts for thunderstorm anvils. Another potential benefit for both NWS MLB and SMG is using the HYSPLIT model concentration and deposition guidance in fog situations.

  18. Europe's First Space Weather Think Tank

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lilensten, Jean; Clark, Toby; Belehaki, Anna

    2004-04-01

    A new European intergovernmental action devoted to space weather has been recently approved. This paper describes the political and scientific context in which this action takes place, and the goals of this action, called COST 724.

  19. Space Weather Gets Real—on Smartphones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobiska, W. Kent; Crowley, Geoff; Oh, Seung Jun; Guhathakurta, Madhulika

    2010-10-01

    True to the saying that "a picture is worth a thousand words," society's affinity for visual images has driven innovative efforts to see space weather as it happens. The newest frontiers of these efforts involve applications, or apps, on cellular phones, allowing space weather researchers, operators, and teachers, as well as other interested parties, to have the ability to monitor conditions in real time with just the touch of a button.

  20. Realistic weather simulations and forecast verification with COSMO-EULAG

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wójcik, Damian; Piotrowski, Zbigniew; Rosa, Bogdan; Ziemiański, Michał

    2015-04-01

    Research conducted at Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute, in collaboration with Consortium for Small Scale Modeling (COSMO) resulted in the development of a new prototype model COSMO-EULAG. The dynamical core of the new model is based on anelastic set of equation and numerics adopted from the EULAG model. The core is coupled, with the 1st degree of accuracy, to the COSMO physical parameterizations involving turbulence, friction, radiation, moist processes and surface fluxes. The tool is capable to compute weather forecast in mountainous area for the horizontal resolutions ranging from 2.2 km to 0.1 km and with slopes reaching 82 degree of inclination. An employment of EULAG allows to profit from its desirable conservative properties and numerical robustness confirmed in number of benchmark tests and widely documented in scientific literature. In this study we show a realistic case study of Alpine summer convection simulated by COSMO-EULAG. It compares the convection-permitting realization of the flow using 2.2 km horizontal grid size, typical for contemporary very high resolution regional NWP forecast, with realization of LES type using grid size of 100 m. The study presents comparison of flow, cloud and precipitation structure together with the reference results of standard compressible COSMO Runge-Kutta model forecast in 2.2 km horizontal resolution. The case study results are supplemented by COSMO-EULAG forecast verification results for Alpine domain in 2.2 km horizontal resolution. Wind, temperature, cloud, humidity and precipitation scores are being presented. Verification period covers one summer month (June 2013) and one autumn month (November 2013). Verification is based on data collected by a network of approximately 200 stations (surface data verification) and 6 stations (upper-air verification) located in the Alps and vicinity.

  1. Space Weathering in the Mercurian Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noble, S. K.; Pieters, C. M.

    2001-01-01

    Space weathering processes are known to be important on the Moon. These processes both create the lunar regolith and alter its optical properties. Like the Moon, Mercury has no atmosphere to protect it from the harsh space environment and therefore it is expected that it will also incur the effects of space weathering. However, there are many important differences between the environments of Mercury and the Moon. These environmental differences will almost certainly affect the weathering processes and the products of those processes. It should be possible to observe the effects of these differences in Vis (visible)/NIR (near infrared) spectra of the type expected to be returned by MESSENGER. More importantly, understanding these weathering processes and their consequences is essential for evaluating the spectral data returned from MESSENGER and other missions in order to determine the mineralogy and the Fe content of the Mercurian surface. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  2. Space Weathering in the Inner Solar System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noble, Sarah K.

    2010-01-01

    "Space weathering" is the term given to the cumulative effects incurred by surfaces which are exposed to the harsh environment of space. Lunar sample studies over the last decade or so have produced a clear picture of space weathering processes in the lunar environment. By combining laboratory and remote spectra with microanalytical methods (scanning and transmission electron microscopy), we have begun to unravel the various processes (irradiation, micrometeorite bombardment, etc) that contribute to space weathering and the physical and optical consequences of those processes on the Moon. Using the understanding gleaned from lunar samples, it is possible to extrapolate weathering processes to other airless bodies from which we have not yet returned samples (i.e. Mercury, asteroids). Through experiments which simulate various components of weathering, the expected differences in environment (impact rate, distance from Sun, presence of a magnetic field, reduced or enhanced gravity, etc) and composition (particularly iron content) can be explored to understand how space weathering will manifest on a given body.

  3. Types of Forecast and Weather-Related Information Used among Tourism Businesses in Coastal North Carolina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayscue, Emily P.

    This study profiles the coastal tourism sector, a large and diverse consumer of climate and weather information. It is crucial to provide reliable, accurate and relevant resources for the climate and weather-sensitive portions of this stakeholder group in order to guide them in capitalizing on current climate and weather conditions and to prepare them for potential changes. An online survey of tourism business owners, managers and support specialists was conducted within the eight North Carolina oceanfront counties asking respondents about forecasts they use and for what purposes as well as why certain forecasts are not used. Respondents were also asked about their perceived dependency of their business on climate and weather as well as how valuable different forecasts are to their decision-making. Business types represented include: Agriculture, Outdoor Recreation, Accommodations, Food Services, Parks and Heritage, and Other. Weekly forecasts were the most popular forecasts with Monthly and Seasonal being the least used. MANOVA and ANOVA analyses revealed outdoor-oriented businesses (Agriculture and Outdoor Recreation) as perceiving themselves significantly more dependent on climate and weather than indoor-oriented ones (Food Services and Accommodations). Outdoor businesses also valued short-range forecasts significantly more than indoor businesses. This suggests a positive relationship between perceived climate and weather dependency and forecast value. The low perceived dependency and value of short-range forecasts of indoor businesses presents an opportunity to create climate and weather information resources directed at how they can capitalize on positive climate and weather forecasts and how to counter negative effects with forecasted adverse conditions. The low use of long-range forecasts among all business types can be related to the low value placed on these forecasts. However, these forecasts are still important in that they are used to make more

  4. Weather Stations as Educational and Hazard-Forecasting Tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowman, L. J.; Gierke, J. S.; Gochis, E. E.; Dominguez, R.; Mayer, A. S.

    2014-12-01

    Small, relatively inexpensive (<$1000 USD) weather stations can be valuable tools for enhancing inquiry-based educational opportunities at all grade levels, while also facilitating compilation of climate data for longer term research. Weather stations and networks of stations have been installed both locally and abroad in mostly rural and resource-limited settings. The data are being used either in the classroom to engage students in place-based, scientific investigations and/or research to improve hydrometeorological hazard forecasting, including water scarcity. The San Vicente (El Salvador) Network of six stations monitors rainfall to aid warning and evacuations for landslide and flooding hazards. Other parameters are used in modeling the watershed hydrology. A station installed in Hermosillo, Mexico is used in both Geography and Ecology Classes. Trends in temperature and rainfall are graphed and compared to historic data gathered over the last 30 years by CONAGUA. These observations are linked to local water-related problems, including well salinization, diminished agriculture, depleted aquifers, and social conflict regarding access to water. Two weather stations were installed at the Hannahville Indian Community School (Nah Tah Wahsh) in Michigan for educational purposes of data collection, analysis, and presentation. Through inquiry-based explorations of local hydrological processes, students are introduced to how meteorological data are used in understanding watershed hydrology and the sustainable management of groundwater resources. Several Michigan Technological University Peace Corps Masters International students have deployed weather stations in and around the communities where they serve, and the data are used in research to help in understanding water resource availability and irrigation needs.

  5. Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst-Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joslyn, Susan; Savelli, Sonia; Nadav-Greenberg, Limor

    2011-01-01

    Many weather forecast providers believe that forecast uncertainty in the form of the worst-case scenario would be useful for general public end users. We tested this suggestion in 4 studies using realistic weather-related decision tasks involving high winds and low temperatures. College undergraduates, given the statistical equivalent of the…

  6. Simulating Space Weather at Pluto

    NASA Video Gallery

    This video shows a simulation of the space environment all the way out to Pluto in the months surrounding New Horizons’ July 2015 flyby. At the time, scientists at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Cente...

  7. Use of MODIS/AIRS Direct Broadcast Data for Short Term Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary

    2003-01-01

    Operational weather forecasting relies heavily on real time data and modeling products for forecast preparation and dissemination of significant weather information to the public. The key to this success is access to real time data and integration of the data and products into weather decision support systems. NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Program has demonstrated this capability with MODIS and AIRS data through several local NWS Forecast Offices. This presentation will describe the use of real time EOS Direct Broadcast (DB) data in local weather forecast operations, highlight the utility of real time data from the EOS DB systems, and provide insight into how EOS DB data can have the most impact on the weather forecast community.

  8. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    SciTech Connect

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improves WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.

  9. Application of SeaWinds Scatterometer Data to Weather Analysis and Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atlas, Robert

    2003-01-01

    The SeaWinds scatterometer (like NSCAT and ERS) is able to detect unequivocal signatures of meteorological features including cyclones, fronts, anticyclones, easterly waves and other precursors of hurricanes and typhoons. Through collaborative efforts between NASA and NOAA, National Weather Service marine forecasters are using SeaWinds data to improve analyses, forecasts and significant weather warnings for maritime interests. This results in substantial economic savings as well as the reduction of weather related loss of life at sea. The impact of SeaWinds on Numerical Weather Prediction models is on average modest but occasionally results in significant forecast improvements.

  10. On-line economic optimization of energy systems using weather forecast information.

    SciTech Connect

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-01-01

    We establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit weather forecast information in the operation of energy systems. We argue that anticipating the weather conditions can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The framework is based on the solution of a stochastic dynamic real-time optimization (D-RTO) problem incorporating forecasts generated from a state-of-the-art weather prediction model. The necessary uncertainty information is extracted from the weather model using an ensemble approach. The accuracy of the forecast trends and uncertainty bounds are validated using real meteorological data. We present a numerical simulation study in a building system to demonstrate the developments.

  11. ESA situational awareness of space weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luntama, Juha-Pekka; Glover, Alexi; Keil, Ralf; Kraft, Stefan; Lupi, Adriano

    2016-07-01

    ESA SSA Period 2 started at the beginning of 2013 and will last until the end of 2016. For the Space Weather Segment, transition to Period 2 introduced an increasing amount of development of new space weather service capability in addition to networking existing European assets. This transition was started already towards the end of SSA Period 1 with the initiation of the SSA Space Weather Segment architecture definition studies and activities enhancing existing space weather assets. The objective of Period 2 has been to initiate SWE space segment developments in the form of hosted payload missions and further expand the federated service network. A strong focus has been placed on demonstration and testing of European capabilities in the range of SWE service domains with a view to establishing core products which can form the basis of SWE service provision during SSA Period 3. This focus has been particularly addressed in the SSA Expert Service Centre (ESC) Definition and Development activity that was started in September 2015. This presentation will cover the current status of the SSA SWE Segment and the achievements during SSA Programme Periods 1 and 2. Particular attention is given to the federated approach that allow building the end user services on the best European expertise. The presentation will also outline the plans for the Space Weather capability development in the framework of the ESA SSA Programme in 2017-2020.

  12. The program of the Techniques Development Laboratory in aviation weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klein, W. H.

    1980-01-01

    Some operational and experimental products developed for aviation weather forecasting are briefly described. Experimental products include surface dew point, obstructions to vision, boundary layer model, computer-worded terminal forecasts, terminal alerting procedure, generalized equivalent Markov, and radar forecasts (0-2 hours).

  13. THOR contribution to space weather science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaivads, Andris; Opgenoorth, Hermann; Retinò, Alessandro; Khotyaintsev, Yuri; Soucek, Jan; Valentini, Francesco; Escoubet, Philippe

    2016-04-01

    Turbulence Heating ObserveR - THOR is a mission proposal to study energy dissipation and particle acceleration in turbulent space plasma. THOR will focus on turbulent plasma in pristine solar wind, bow shock and magnetosheath. The orbit of THOR is tuned to spend long times in those regions allowing THOR to obtain high resolution data sets that can be used also for space weather science. In addition, THOR is designed with enough propellant to reach L1 in the second phase of the mission if necessary. Here we will discuss the space weather science questions that can be addressed and significantly advanced using THOR. Link to THOR: http://thor.irfu.se.

  14. The sun, space weather and GIC effects in Sweden

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lundstedt, H.

    The solar activity drives the space weather on short-terms and the space climate on long-terms. Being close to the auroral oval has made Swedish electrical systems particularly vulnerable to space weather. Requirements for long-term planning of energy production has now also created an interest in space climate. A short description of the Swedish power system and pipeline system is given. A historical description of the effects that occurred at times of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), up to the Halloween events in 2003 and event in November 2004, is presented. All these events have created great knowledge about the effects within the Swedish power industry and an interest to collaborate with scientists in order to understand the solar causes of GICs and herewith possibly forecast the effects of GICs. An ESA GIC Pilot Project is in progress together with the Swedish power organization ELFORSK and FMI. The goal is to implement real-time accurate forecasts of GICs in order to mitigate the effects.

  15. The Sun, Space Weather and GIC Effects in Sweden

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lundstedt, H.

    The solar activity drives the space weather on short-terms and the space climate on long-terms. Being close to the auroral oval has made Swedish electrical systems particularly vulnerable to space weather. Requirements for long-term planning of energy production has now also created an interest in space climate. A short description of the Swedish power system and pipeline system will be given. A historical description of the effects that occurred at times of of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), up to the most recent during the Halloween events in 2003, will be presented. All these events have created great knowledge about the effects within the Swedish power industry and an interest to collaborate with scientists in order to understand the solar causes of GICs and possibly forecast the effects of GICs. An ESA GIC Pilot Project is in progress together with the Swedish power organization ELFORSK and FMI. The goal is to implement real-time accurate forecasts of GICs in order to mitigate the effects.

  16. Recent Applications of Space Weather Research to NASA Space Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Willis, Emily M.; Howard, James W., Jr.; Miller, J. Scott; Minow, Joseph I.; NeergardParker, L.; Suggs, Robert M.

    2013-01-01

    Marshall Space Flight Center s Space Environments Team is committed to applying the latest research in space weather to NASA programs. We analyze data from an extensive set of space weather satellites in order to define the space environments for some of NASA s highest profile programs. Our goal is to ensure that spacecraft are designed to be successful in all environments encountered during their missions. We also collaborate with universities, industry, and other federal agencies to provide analysis of anomalies and operational impacts to current missions. This presentation is a summary of some of our most recent applications of space weather data, including the definition of the space environments for the initial phases of the Space Launch System (SLS), acquisition of International Space Station (ISS) frame potential variations during geomagnetic storms, and Nascap-2K charging analyses.

  17. Weather factors in the short-term forecasting of daily ambulance calls.

    PubMed

    Wong, Ho-Ting; Lai, Poh-Chin

    2014-07-01

    The daily ambulance demand for Hong Kong is rising, and it has been shown that weather factors (temperature and humidity) play a role in the demand for ambulance services. This study aimed at developing short-term forecasting models of daily ambulance calls using the 7-day weather forecast data as predictors. We employed the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method to analyze over 1.3 million cases of emergency attendance in May 2006 through April 2009 and the 7-day weather forecast data for the same period. Our results showed that the ARIMA model could offer reasonably accurate forecasts of daily ambulance calls at 1-7 days ahead of time and with improved accuracy by including weather factors. Specifically, the inclusion of average temperature alone in our ARIMA model improved the predictability of the 1-day forecast when compared to that of a simple ARIMA model (8.8% decrease in the root mean square error, RMSE=53 vs 58). The improvement in the 7-day forecast with average temperature as a predictor was more pronounced, with a 10% drop in prediction error (RMSE=62 vs 69). These findings suggested that weather forecast data can improve the 1- to 7-day forecasts of daily ambulance demand. As weather forecast data are readily accessible from Hong Kong Observatory's official website, there is virtually no cost to including them in the ARIMA models, which yield better prediction for forward planning and deployment of ambulance manpower.

  18. Space Weather: Where Is The Beef?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koskinen, H. E. J.

    Space weather has become a highly fashionable topic in solar-terrestrial physics. It is perhaps the best tool to popularise the field and it has contributed significantly to the dialogue between solar, magnetospheric, and ionospheric scientist, and also to mu- tual understanding between science and engineering communities. While these are laudable achievements, it is important for the integrity of scientific space weather re- search to recognise the central open questions in the physics of space weather and the progress toward solving them. We still lack sufficient understanding of the solar physics to be able to tell in advance when and where a solar eruption will take place and whether it will turn to a geoeffective event. There is much to do to understand ac- celeration of solar energetic particles and propagation of solar mass ejecta toward the Earth. After more than 40 years of research scientific discussion of energy and plasma transfer through the magnetopause still deals mostly with qualitative issues and the rapid acceleration processes in the magnetosphere are not yet explained in a satisfac- tory way. Also the coupling to the ionosphere and from there to the strong induction effects on ground is another complex of research problems. For space weather science the beef is in the investigation of these and related topics, not in marketing half-useful space weather products to hesitant customers.

  19. Development of RGB Composite Imagery for Operational Weather Forecasting Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molthan, Andrew L.; Fuell, Kevin K.; Oswald, Hayden, K; Knaff, John A.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, in collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), is providing red-green-blue (RGB) color composite imagery to several of NOAA s National Centers and National Weather Service forecast offices as a demonstration of future capabilities of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) to be implemented aboard GOES-R. Forecasters rely upon geostationary satellite imagery to monitor conditions over their regions of responsibility. Since the ABI will provide nearly three times as many channels as the current GOES imager, the volume of data available for analysis will increase. RGB composite imagery can aid in the compression of large data volumes by combining information from multiple channels or paired channel differences into single products that communicate more information than provided by a single channel image. A standard suite of RGB imagery has been developed by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), based upon the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). The SEVIRI instrument currently provides visible and infrared wavelengths comparable to the future GOES-R ABI. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites can be used to demonstrate future capabilities of GOES-R. This presentation will demonstrate an overview of the products currently disseminated to SPoRT partners within the GOES-R Proving Ground, and other National Weather Service forecast offices, along with examples of their application. For example, CIRA has used the channels of the current GOES sounder to produce an "air mass" RGB originally designed for SEVIRI. This provides hourly imagery over CONUS for looping applications while demonstrating capabilities similar to the future ABI instrument. SPoRT has developed similar "air mass" RGB imagery from MODIS, and through

  20. The utility of polarized heliospheric imaging for space weather monitoring.

    PubMed

    DeForest, C E; Howard, T A; Webb, D F; Davies, J A

    2016-01-01

    A polarizing heliospheric imager is a critical next generation tool for space weather monitoring and prediction. Heliospheric imagers can track coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they cross the solar system, using sunlight scattered by electrons in the CME. This tracking has been demonstrated to improve the forecasting of impact probability and arrival time for Earth-directed CMEs. Polarized imaging allows locating CMEs in three dimensions from a single vantage point. Recent advances in heliospheric imaging have demonstrated that a polarized imager is feasible with current component technology.Developing this technology to a high technology readiness level is critical for space weather relevant imaging from either a near-Earth or deep-space mission. In this primarily technical review, we developpreliminary hardware requirements for a space weather polarizing heliospheric imager system and outline possible ways to flight qualify and ultimately deploy the technology operationally on upcoming specific missions. We consider deployment as an instrument on NOAA's Deep Space Climate Observatory follow-on near the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point, as a stand-alone constellation of smallsats in low Earth orbit, or as an instrument located at the Sun-Earth L5 Lagrange point. The critical first step is the demonstration of the technology, in either a science or prototype operational mission context.

  1. A Weather Analysis and Forecasting System for Baja California, Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farfan, L. M.

    2006-05-01

    The weather of the Baja California Peninsula, part of northwestern Mexico, is mild and dry most of the year. However, during the summer, humid air masses associated with tropical cyclones move northward in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Added features that create a unique meteorological situation include mountain ranges along the spine of the peninsula, warm water in the Gulf of California, and the cold California Current in the Pacific. These features interact with the environmental flow to induce conditions that play a role in the occurrence of localized, convective systems during the approach of tropical cyclones. Most of these events occur late in the summer, generating heavy precipitation, strong winds, lightning, and are associated with significant property damage to the local populations. Our goal is to provide information on the characteristics of these weather systems by performing an analysis of observations derived from a regional network. This includes imagery from radar and geostationary satellite, and data from surface stations. A set of real-time products are generated in our research center and are made available to a broad audience (researchers, students, and business employees) by using an internet site. Graphical products are updated anywhere from one to 24 hours and includes predictions from numerical models. Forecasts are derived from an operational model (GFS) and locally generated simulations based on a mesoscale model (MM5). Our analysis and forecasting system has been in operation since the summer of 2005 and was used as a reference for a set of discussions during the development of eastern Pacific tropical cyclones. This basin had 15 named storms and none of them made landfall on the west coast of Mexico; however, four systems were within 800 km from the area of interest, resulting in some convective activity. During the whole season, a group of 30 users from our institution, government offices, and local businesses received daily information

  2. ManUniCast: A Community Weather and Air-Quality Forecasting Teaching Portal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, David M.; Anderson, Stuart; Fairman, Jonathan G.; Lowe, Douglas; McFiggans, Gordon; Lee, Elsa; Seo-Zindy, Ryo

    2014-05-01

    Manunicast was borne out of the needs of our teaching program: students were entering a world where environmental prediction via numerical model was an essential skill, but were not exposed to the production or output of such models. Our site is an educational testbed to explain to students and the public how weather, air-quality, and air-chemistry forecasts are made using real-time predictions as examples. As far as we know, this site provides the first freely available real-time predictions for the UK. We perform two simulations a day over three domains using the most popular, freely available, community atmospheric mesoscale and chemistry models WRF-ARW and WRF-Chem: 1. a WRF-ARW domain over the North Atlantic and western Europe (20-km horizontal grid spacing) 2. a WRF-ARW domain over the UK and Ireland (4-km grid spacing, nested within the 20-km domain) 3. a WRF-Chem domain over the UK and Ireland (12-km grid spacing) Called ManUniCast (Manchester University Forecast), we offer a suite of products from horizontal maps, time series at stations (meteograms), skew-T-logp charts, and cross sections to help students better visualize the weather and the relationships between the various fields more effectively, specifically through the ability to overlay and fade between different plotted products. This presentation discusses how we funded and built ManUniCast, the struggles we faced, and its use in our classes.

  3. Opportunities and challenges of indigenous biotic weather forecasting among the Borena herders of southern Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Ayal, Desalegn Yayeh; Desta, Solomon; Gebru, Getachew; Kinyangi, James; Recha, John; Radeny, Maren

    2015-01-01

    The practical utilization of available modern as well as traditional weather forecasting systems builds herders' resiliency capacity to climatic shocks. The precision and reliability of the forecasting system determines its creditability and acceptance by the users to be proactive in the decisions they make based on the forecasted information. It has been postulated that traditional weather forecasting systems are becoming less reliable due to repeated faulty forecasts. The study assesses the current status of the Borana traditional weather forecasting system and how traditional experts make weather forecasts based on biotic indicators such as intestinal readings, changes in plant and animal body languages. Questionnaire survey, field observations, focus group discussions and interviews with relevant key informants were employed to obtain data. Collected field data was compared with National Metrological Service Agency instrumental data for consistency. Results reveal that herders made short term weather forecasts using intestinal readings, and observed changes in plant and animal body languages. The study shows the extent how public confidence in the accuracy of indigenous weather forecasting skills has been gradually eroded overtime due to faulty forecasts. The precision and credibility of the traditional weather forecast steadily declined and led to repeated faulty predictions. Poor documentation, oral based knowledge transfer system, influence of religion and modern education, aging and extinction of traditional experts were identified as the major causes undermining the vitality of traditional climate forecast. Traditional weather foresting knowledge and skill could have some utility and also serve as a starting point to scientifically study the relationship between various signs and implied climatic events. This article recommends before traditional Borana weather forecasting system completely disappears, a remedial action should be carried out to rescue this

  4. Future Weather Forecasting in the Year 2020-Investing in Technology Today: Improving Weather and Environmental Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anthes, Richard; Schoeberl, Mark

    2000-01-01

    Fast-forward twenty years to the nightly simultaneous TV/webcast. Accurate 8-14 day regional forecasts will be available as will be a whole host of linked products including economic impact, travel, energy usage, etc. On-demand, personalized street-level forecasts will be downloaded into your PDA. Your home system will automatically update the products of interest to you (e.g. severe storm forecasts, hurricane predictions, etc). Short and long range climate forecasts will be used by your "Quicken 2020" to make suggest changes in your "futures" investment portfolio. Through a lively and informative multi-media presentation, leading Space-Earth Science Researchers and Technologists will share their vision for the year 2020, offering a possible futuristic forecast enabled through the application of new technologies under development today. Copies of the 'broadcast' will be available on Beta Tape for your own future use. If sufficient interest exists, the program may also be made available for broadcasters wishing to do stand-ups with roll-ins from the San Francisco meeting for their viewers back home.

  5. Weathering a Perfect Storm from Space

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Love, Jeffrey J.

    2016-01-01

    Extreme space-weather events — intense solar and geomagnetic storms — have occurred in the past: most recently in 1859, 1921 and 1989. So scientists expect that, sooner or later, another extremely intense spaceweather event will strike Earth again. Such storms have the potential to cause widespread interference with and damage to technological systems. A National Academy of Sciences study projects that an extreme space-weather event could end up costing the American economy more than $1 trillion. The question now is whether or not we will take the actions needed to avoid such expensive consequences. Let’s assume that we do. Below is an imagined scenario of how, sometime in the future, an extreme space-weather event might play out.

  6. Cloud-Based Numerical Weather Prediction for Near Real-Time Forecasting and Disaster Response

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molthan, Andrew; Case, Jonathan; Venners, Jason; Schroeder, Richard; Checchi, Milton; Zavodsky, Bradley; Limaye, Ashutosh; O'Brien, Raymond

    2015-01-01

    The use of cloud computing resources continues to grow within the public and private sector components of the weather enterprise as users become more familiar with cloud-computing concepts, and competition among service providers continues to reduce costs and other barriers to entry. Cloud resources can also provide capabilities similar to high-performance computing environments, supporting multi-node systems required for near real-time, regional weather predictions. Referred to as "Infrastructure as a Service", or IaaS, the use of cloud-based computing hardware in an on-demand payment system allows for rapid deployment of a modeling system in environments lacking access to a large, supercomputing infrastructure. Use of IaaS capabilities to support regional weather prediction may be of particular interest to developing countries that have not yet established large supercomputing resources, but would otherwise benefit from a regional weather forecasting capability. Recently, collaborators from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and Ames Research Center have developed a scripted, on-demand capability for launching the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center (STRC) Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which includes pre-compiled binaries of the latest version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF-EMS provides scripting for downloading appropriate initial and boundary conditions from global models, along with higher-resolution vegetation, land surface, and sea surface temperature data sets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center. This presentation will provide an overview of the modeling system capabilities and benchmarks performed on the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) environment. In addition, the presentation will discuss future opportunities to deploy the system in support of weather prediction in developing countries supported by NASA's SERVIR Project, which provides capacity building

  7. Space Weather affects on Air Transportation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, J. B. L.; Bentley, R. D.; Dyer, C.; Shaw, A.

    In Europe, legislation requires the airline industry to monitor the occupational exposure of aircrew to cosmic radiation. However, there are other significant impacts of space weather phenomena on the technological systems used for day-to-day operations which need to be considered by the airlines. These were highlighted by the disruption caused to the industry by the period of significant solar activity in late October and early November 2003. Next generation aircraft will utilize increasingly complex avionics as well as expanding the performance envelopes. These and future generation platforms will require the development of a new air-space management infrastructure with improved position accuracy (for route navigation and landing in bad weather) and reduced separation minima in order to cope with the expected growth in air travel. Similarly, greater reliance will be placed upon satellites for command, control, communication and information (C3I) of the operation. However, to maximize effectiveness of this globally interoperable C3I and ensure seamless fusion of all components for a safe operation will require a greater understanding of the space weather affects, their risks with increasing technology, and the inclusion of space weather information into the operation. This paper will review space weather effects on air transport and the increasing risks for future operations cause by them. We will examine how well the effects can be predicted, some of the tools that can be used and the practicalities of using such predictions in an operational scenario. Initial results from the SOARS ESA Space Weather Pilot Project will also be discussed,

  8. The Ensemble Space Weather Modeling System (eSWMS): Status, Capabilities and Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fry, C. D.; Eccles, J. V.; Reich, J. P.

    2010-12-01

    Marking a milestone in space weather forecasting, the Space Weather Modeling System (SWMS) successfully completed validation testing in advance of operational testing at Air Force Weather Agency’s primary space weather production center. This is the first coupling of stand-alone, physics-based space weather models that are currently in operations at AFWA supporting the warfighter. Significant development effort went into ensuring the component models were portable and scalable while maintaining consistent results across diverse high performance computing platforms. Coupling was accomplished under the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The coupled space weather models are the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 (HAFv2) solar wind model and GAIM1, the ionospheric forecast component of the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) model. The SWMS was developed by team members from AFWA, Explorations Physics International, Inc. (EXPI) and Space Environment Corporation (SEC). The successful development of the SWMS provides new capabilities beyond enabling extended lead-time, data-driven ionospheric forecasts. These include ingesting diverse data sets at higher resolution, incorporating denser computational grids at finer time steps, and performing probability-based ensemble forecasts. Work of the SWMS development team now focuses on implementing the ensemble-based probability forecast capability by feeding multiple scenarios of 5 days of solar wind forecasts to the GAIM1 model based on the variation of the input fields to the HAFv2 model. The ensemble SWMS (eSWMS) will provide the most-likely space weather scenario with uncertainty estimates for important forecast fields. The eSWMS will allow DoD mission planners to consider the effects of space weather on their systems with more advance warning than is currently possible. The payoff is enhanced, tailored support to the warfighter with improved capabilities, such as point-to-point HF propagation forecasts

  9. a Roadmap to Advance Understanding of the Science of Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schrijver, K.; Kauristie, K.; Aylward, A.; De Nardin, C. M.; Gibson, S. E.; Glover, A.; Gopalswamy, N.; Grande, M.; Hapgood, M. A.; Heynderickx, D.; Jakowski, N.; Kalegaev, V. V.; Lapenta, G.; Linker, J.; Liu, S.; Mandrini, C. H.; Mann, I. R.; Nagatsuma, T.; Nandy, D.; Obara, T.; O'Brien, T. P., III; Onsager, T. G.; Opgenoorth, H. J.; Terkildsen, M. B.; Valladares, C. E.; Vilmer, N.

    2015-12-01

    There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. A COSPAR/ILWS team recently completed a roadmap that identifies the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications and costs for society. This presentation provides a summary of the highest-priority recommendations from that roadmap.

  10. Evaluating the use of high-resolution numerical weather forecast for debris flow prediction.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Bartsotas, Nikolaos S.; Borga, Marco; Kallos, George

    2015-04-01

    The sudden occurrence combined with the high destructive power of debris flows pose a significant threat to human life and infrastructures. Therefore, developing early warning procedures for the mitigation of debris flows risk is of great economical and societal importance. Given that rainfall is the predominant factor controlling debris flow triggering, it is indisputable that development of effective debris flows warning procedures requires accurate knowledge of the properties (e.g. duration, intensity) of the triggering rainfall. Moreover, efficient and timely response of emergency operations depends highly on the lead-time provided by the warning systems. Currently, the majority of early warning systems for debris flows are based on nowcasting procedures. While the latter may be successful in predicting the hazard, they provide warnings with a relatively short lead-time (~6h). Increasing the lead-time is necessary in order to improve the pre-incident operations and communication of the emergency, thus coupling warning systems with weather forecasting is essential for advancing early warning procedures. In this work we evaluate the potential of using high-resolution (1km) rainfall fields forecasted with a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model (RAMS/ICLAMS), in order to predict the occurrence of debris flows. Analysis is focused over the Upper Adige region, Northeast Italy, an area where debris flows are frequent. Seven storm events that generated a large number (>80) of debris flows during the period 2007-2012 are analyzed. Radar-based rainfall estimates, available from the operational C-band radar located at Mt Macaion, are used as the reference to evaluate the forecasted rainfall fields. Evaluation is mainly focused on assessing the error in forecasted rainfall properties (magnitude, duration) and the correlation in space and time with the reference field. Results show that the forecasted rainfall fields captured very well the magnitude and

  11. Kameleon Live: A Cloud Based Analysis and Visualization Platform for Space Weather Researchers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colbert, J. A.; Pembroke, A. D.

    2015-12-01

    NASA's Community Coordinated Modeling Center [CCMC] hosts many of the simulations used by the community of space weather researchers and forecasters. In order to increase the speed of scientific discovery and model validation, we have developed Kameleon Live: a new interactive cloud based analysis and visualization engine that enables users to quickly share, validate, and disseminate their findings. Kameleon Live links several specialized software tools into a single operating environment allowing large datasets to be processed by a central computing system, allowing visualizations to be dynamically generated as users interact with the datasets. Together with feedback from end-users, Kameleon Live will help streamline the workflow for space weather researchers and forecasters.

  12. The ESA Space Weather Applications Pilot Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glover, A.; Hilgers, A.; Daly, E.

    Following the completion in 2001 of two parallel studies to consider the feasibility of a European Space Weather Programme ESA embarked upon a space weather pilot study with the goal of prototyping European space weather services and assessing the overall market for such within Europe This pilot project centred on a number of targeted service development activities supported by a common infrastructure and making use of only existing space weather assets Each service activity included clear participation from at least one identified service user who was requested to provide initial requirements and regular feedback during the operational phase of the service These service activities are now reaching the end of their 2-year development and testing phase and are now accessible each with an element of the service in the public domain see http www esa-spaceweathet net swenet An additional crucial element of the study was the inclusion of a comprehensive and independent analysis of the benefits both economic and strategic of embarking on a programme which would include the deployment of an infrastructure with space-based elements The results of this study will be reported together with their implication for future coordinated European activities in this field

  13. Weather forecast needs from the viewpoint of hydrology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Donald M.; Buchanan, Thomas J.

    1980-01-01

    Hydrologists now depend on directly observed data in their forecasting and only infrequently use meteorological forecasts. Case studies show how reliable meteorological forecasts could be beneficial in flood and drought situations. Hydrologists need meteorological forecasts that recognize spatial variability, that are unbiased, and that have a specified degree of uncertainty. (USGS)

  14. How to judge the quality and value of weather forecast products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thornes, John E.; Stephenson, David B.

    2001-09-01

    In order to decide whether or not a weather service supplier is giving good value for money we need to monitor the quality of the forecasts and the use that is made of the forecasts to estimate their value. A number of verification statistics are examined to measure the quality of forecasts - including Miss Rate, False Alarm Rate, the Peirce Skill Score and the Odds Ratio Skill Score - and a means of testing the significance of these values is presented. In order to assess the economic value of the forecasts a value index is suggested that takes into account the cost-loss ratio and forecast errors. It is suggested that a combination of these quality and value statistics could be used by weather forecast customers to choose the best forecast provider and to set limits for performance related contracts.

  15. Interplanetary Space Weather: A New Paradigm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guhathakurta, Madhulika

    2013-04-01

    In September 1859, Earth was hit by a solar storm so powerful that it set telegraph offices on fire and sparked northern lights in the South Pacific. Historians call it the "Carrington Event," after English astronomer Richard Carrington, who witnessed the instigating solar flare on a projecting screen with his unaided eyes. Many consider this to be the birth of space weather.

  16. Space weather effects on communications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lanzerotti, Louis J.

    In the 150 years since the advent of the first electrical communication system - the electrical telegraph - the diversity of communications technologies that are embedded within space-affected environments have vastly increased. The increasing sophistication of these communications technologies, and how their installation and operations may relate to the environments in which they are embedded, requires ever more sophisticated understanding of natural physical phenomena. At the same time, the business environment for most present-day communications technologies that are affected by space phenomena is very dynamic. The commercial and national security deployment and use of these technologies do not wait for optimum knowledge of possible environmental effects to be acquired before new technological embodiments are created, implemented, and marketed. Indeed, those companies that might foolishly seek perfectionist understanding of natural effects can be left behind by the marketplace. A well-considered balance is needed between seeking ever deeper understanding of physical phenomena and implementing `engineering' solutions to current crises. The research community must try to understand, and operate in, this dynamic environment.

  17. Overview of Space Weather Impacts and NASA Space Weather Center Services and Products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zheng, Y.

    2012-01-01

    The presentation is divided into two major components. First, I will give an overview of space weather phenomenon and their associated impacts. Then I will describe the comprehensive list of products and tools that NASA Space Weather Center has developed by leveraging more than a decade long modeling experience enabled by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and latest scientific research results from the broad science community. In addition, a summary of the space weather activities we have been engaged in and our operational experience will be provided.

  18. Constraining storm-scale forecasts of deep convective initiation with surface weather observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madaus, Luke

    Successfully forecasting when and where individual convective storms will form remains an elusive goal for short-term numerical weather prediction. In this dissertation, the convective initiation (CI) challenge is considered as a problem of insufficiently resolved initial conditions and dense surface weather observations are explored as a possible solution. To better quantify convective-scale surface variability in numerical simulations of discrete convective initiation, idealized ensemble simulations of a variety of environments where CI occurs in response to boundary-layer processes are examined. Coherent features 1-2 hours prior to CI are found in all surface fields examined. While some features were broadly expected, such as positive temperature anomalies and convergent winds, negative temperature anomalies due to cloud shadowing are the largest surface anomaly seen prior to CI. Based on these simulations, several hypotheses about the required characteristics of a surface observing network to constrain CI forecasts are developed. Principally, these suggest that observation spacings of less than 4---5 km would be required, based on correlation length scales. Furthermore, it is anticipated that 2-m temperature and 10-m wind observations would likely be more relevant for effectively constraining variability than surface pressure or 2-m moisture observations based on the magnitudes of observed anomalies relative to observation error. These hypotheses are tested with a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using a single CI-capable environment. The OSSE results largely confirm the hypotheses, and with 4-km and particularly 1-km surface observation spacing, skillful forecasts of CI are possible, but only within two hours of CI time. Several facets of convective-scale assimilation, including the need for properly-calibrated localization and problems from non-Gaussian ensemble estimates of the cloud field are discussed. Finally, the characteristics

  19. Transitioning research to application in the area of space weather at ESA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hilgers, Alain; Glover, Alexi; Daly, Eamonn; Luntama, Juha-Pekka

    This presentation gives an overview of the past and current ESA space weather research ac-tivities and discusses the approaches used or foreseen for transitioning research products into application. Since its establishment ESA has supported and coordinated space weather re-search through its various programmes. The scientific programme has especially contributed to the investigation of key scientific aspects of space weather phenomena while the technology and research programmes targeted the effects of space environments on space systems. In 1998 ESA has started consultations among member states and performed studies to identify the requirements for a future European wide space weather application programme encompassing monitoring and forecasting services to support and protect the operation of space and ground based systems. As a by-product, structural developments were made including the establish-ment of a network of space weather service prototypes (SWENET). In 2008 the council of ESA decided to initiate a Space Situational Awareness (SSA) programme including space weather as one of the pillars together with space surveillance and near-Earth objects elements. Since the Space Weather element is planned to primarily rely on relevant existing assets it will provide a framework for transitioning several research assets of ESA and its member states to operational components of the overall system. Other paths will be considered for other assets which are not directly relevant to the SSA programme or which are still in a early research stage.

  20. Sequential correction of ensemble regional weather predictions for forecasting reference evapotranspiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pelosi, Anna; Medina Gonzalez, Hanoi; Villani, Paolo; D'Urso, Guido; Battista Chirico, Giovanni

    2016-04-01

    This study explores the performance of an adaptive procedure for correcting the ensemble numerical weather outputs applied to the probabilistic forecast of reference evapotranspiration (ETo). This procedure is proposed as an effective forecast correction method when the available dataset is not large enough for the calibration of statistical batch procedures. The numerical weather prediction outputs are those provided by COSMO-LEPS, an ensemble-based Limited Area Model, with 16 members and 7.5 km spatial resolution, with forecast lead-time up to 5 days. ETo forecasts are computed according to the FAO Penman-Monteith (FAO-PM) equation, which requires data of five weather variables: air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed. The performance of the proposed procedure is evaluated at eighteen monitoring stations, located in Campania region (Southern Italy), with two alternative strategies: i) correction applied to the raw ensemble forecasts of the five weather variables prior applying the FAO-PM equation; ii) correction applied to the ensemble output of the ETo forecasts obtained with FAO-PM equation after using the raw ensemble weather forecasts as input. In both cases the suggested post-processing procedure was able to significantly increase the accuracy and reduce the uncertainty of the ETo forecasts.

  1. 21St Century Atmospheric Forecasting for Space Based Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alliss, R.; Felton, B.; Craddock, M.; Kiley, H.; Mason, M.

    2016-09-01

    Many space based applications from imaging to communications are impacted by the atmosphere. Atmospheric impacts such as optical turbulence and clouds are the main drivers for these types of systems. For example, in space based optical communications, clouds will produce channel fades on the order of many hundreds of decibels (dB) thereby breaking the communication link. Optical turbulence can also produce fades but these can be compensated for by adaptive optics. The ability to forecast the current and future location and optical thickness of clouds for space to ground Electro Optical or optical communications is therefore critical in order to achieve a highly reliable system. We have developed an innovative method for producing such forecasts. These forecasts are intended to provide lead times on the order of several hours to days so that communication links can be transferred from a currently loudy ground location to another more desirable ground site. The system uses high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) along with a variational data assimilation (DA) scheme to improve the initial conditions and forecasts. DA is used to provide an improved estimate of the atmospheric state by combining meteorological observations with NWP products and their respective error statistics. Variational DA accomplishes this through the minimization of a prescribed cost function, whereby differences between the observations and analysis are damped according to their perceived error. The NWP model is a fully three-dimensional (3D) physics-based model of the atmosphere initialized with gridded atmospheric data obtained from a global scale model. The global model input data has a horizontal resolution of approximately 25km, which is insufficient for the desired atmospheric forecasts required at near 1km resolution. Therefore, a variational DA system is used to improve the quality and resolution of the initial conditions first prescribed by the global model. Data used by the

  2. CME front and severe space weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balan, N.; Skoug, R.; Tulasi Ram, S.; Rajesh, P. K.; Shiokawa, K.; Otsuka, Y.; Batista, I. S.; Ebihara, Y.; Nakamura, T.

    2014-12-01

    Thanks to the work of a number of scientists who made it known that severe space weather can cause extensive social and economic disruptions in the modern high-technology society. It is therefore important to understand what determines the severity of space weather and whether it can be predicted. We present results obtained from the analysis of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), solar energetic particle (SEP) events, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), CME-magnetosphere coupling, and geomagnetic storms associated with the major space weather events since 1998 by combining data from the ACE and GOES satellites with geomagnetic parameters and the Carrington event of 1859, the Quebec event of 1989, and an event in 1958. The results seem to indicate that (1) it is the impulsive energy mainly due to the impulsive velocity and orientation of IMF Bz at the leading edge of the CMEs (or CME front) that determine the severity of space weather. (2) CMEs having high impulsive velocity (sudden nonfluctuating increase by over 275 km s-1 over the background) caused severe space weather (SvSW) in the heliosphere (failure of the solar wind ion mode of Solar Wind Electron Proton Alpha Monitor in ACE) probably by suddenly accelerating the high-energy particles in the SEPs ahead directly or through the shocks. (3) The impact of such CMEs which also show the IMF Bz southward from the leading edge caused SvSW at the Earth including extreme geomagnetic storms of mean DstMP < -250 nT during main phases, and the known electric power outages happened during some of these SvSW events. (4) The higher the impulsive velocity, the more severe the space weather, like faster weather fronts and tsunami fronts causing more severe damage through impulsive action. (5) The CMEs having IMF Bz northward at the leading edge do not seem to cause SvSW on Earth, although, later when the IMF Bz turns southward, they can lead to super geomagnetic storms of intensity (Dstmin) less than even -400 nT.

  3. NASA Education and Educational Technologies Exemplified by the Space Weather Action Center Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reis, Norma Teresinha Oliveira; André, Claudio; Cline, Troy D.; Eastman, Timothy E.; Maher, Margaret J.; Mayo, Louis A.; Lewis, Elaine M.

    We explore here the Space Weather Action Center (SWAC) Program, as an example of NASA initiatives in education. Many human activities in space can be disrupted by space weather. The main objective of this program is to enable students to produce space weather forecasts by accessing current NASA data. Implementation of the SWAC Program requires: technological resources, online materials, and systematic work. Instructional guides, materials and methods are explained on the Space Weather Action Center Web site (http://sunearthday.nasa.gov/swac). Ultimately, students’ forecasts can be presented through a variety of accessible media including inexpensive video editing software and/or already existing school-based broadcast studios. This cross-curricular program is targeted to middle and high school and can be applied in almost all educational contexts as the number of schools with computer and internet access increases worldwide. SWAC is a pioneer initiative that contributes to fostering student interest in STEM and promotes their intellectual autonomy. Through SWAC, they get to act like real scientists by accessing, analyzing, recording, and communicating space weather forecasts in a professional approach.

  4. Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

    SciTech Connect

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-08-15

    We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

  5. Frost Monitoring and Forecasting Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature Data and a Numerical Weather Prediction Model Forecasts for Eastern Africa

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kabuchanga, Eric; Flores, Africa; Malaso, Susan; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Shaka, Ayub; Limaye, Ashutosh

    2014-01-01

    Frost is a major challenge across Eastern Africa, severely impacting agricultural farms. Frost damages have wide ranging economic implications on tea and coffee farms, which represent a major economic sector. Early monitoring and forecasting will enable farmers to take preventive actions to minimize the losses. Although clearly important, timely information on when to protect crops from freezing is relatively limited. MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data, derived from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, and 72-hr weather forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Service's operational Weather Research Forecast model are enabling the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to provide timely information to farmers in the region. This presentation will highlight an ongoing collaboration among the Kenya Meteorological Service, RCMRD, and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to identify frost events and provide farmers with potential frost forecasts in Eastern Africa.

  6. The Impact of the Assimilation of AIRS Radiance Measurements on Short-term Weather Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McCarty, Will; Jedlovec, Gary; Miller, Timothy L.

    2009-01-01

    Advanced spaceborne instruments have the ability to improve the horizontal and vertical characterization of temperature and water vapor in the atmosphere through the explicit use of hyperspectral thermal infrared radiance measurements. The incorporation of these measurements into a data assimilation system provides a means to continuously characterize a three-dimensional, instantaneous atmospheric state necessary for the time integration of numerical weather forecasts. Measurements from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are incorporated into the gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation system to provide improved initial conditions for use in a mesoscale modeling framework mimicking that of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. The methodologies for the incorporation of the measurements into the system are presented. Though the measurements have been shown to have a positive impact in global modeling systems, the measurements are further constrained in this system as the model top is physically lower than the global systems and there is no ozone characterization in the background state. For a study period, the measurements are shown to have positive impact on both the analysis state as well as subsequently spawned short-term (0-48 hr) forecasts, particularly in forecasted geopotential height and precipitation fields. At 48 hr, height anomaly correlations showed an improvement in forecast skill of 2.3 hours relative to a system without the AIRS measurements. Similarly, the equitable threat and bias scores of precipitation forecasts of 25 mm (6 hr)-1 were shown to be improved by 8% and 7%, respectively.

  7. Shootout-89, A Comparative Evaluation of Knowledge-based Systems That Forecast Severe Weather.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moninger, W. R.; Lusk, C.; Roberts, W. F.; Bullas, J.; de Lorenzis, B.; McLeod, J. C.; Ellison, E.; Flueck, J.; Lampru, P. D.; Young, K. C.; Weaver, J.; Philips, R. S.; Shaw, R.; Stewart, T. R.; Zubrick, S. M.

    1991-09-01

    During the summer of 1989, the Forecast Systems Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sponsored an evaluation of artificial-intelligence-based systems that forecast severe convective storms. The evaluation experiment, called Shootout-89, took place in Boulder, Colorado, and focused on storms over the northeastern Colorado foothills and plains.Six systems participated in Shootout-89: three traditional expert systems, a hybrid system including a linear model augmented by a small expert system, an analogue-based system, and a system developed using methods from the cognitive science/judgment analysis tradition.Each day of the exercise, the systems generated 2-9-h forecasts of the probabilities of occurrence of nonsignificant weather, significant weather, and severe weather in each of tour regions in northeastern Colorado. A verification coordinator working at the Denver Weather Service Forecast Office gathered ground-truth data from a network of observers.The systems were evaluated on several measures of forecast skill, on timeliness, on ease of learning, and on ease of use. They were generally easy to operate; however, they required substantially different levels of meteorological expertise on the part of their users, reflecting the various operational environments for which they had been designed. The systems varied in their statistical behavior, but on this difficult forecast problem, they generally showed a skill approximately equal to that of persistence forecasts and climatological forecasts.

  8. Value of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts: Assessment by Real-Time Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling

    SciTech Connect

    Cai, Ximing; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Wang, Dingbao

    2011-09-29

    This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The forecasts and their probability distributions are incorporated into a simulation-optimization modeling framework. In this study, modeling irrigation is determined by a stochastic optimization program based on the simulated soil moisture and crop water-stress status and the forecasted rainfall for the next 1-7 days. The modeling framework is applied to irrigated corn in Mason County, Illinois. It is found that there is ample potential to improve current farmers practices by simply using the proposed simulation-optimization framework, which uses the present soil moisture and crop evapotranspiration information even without any forecasts. It is found that the values of the forecasts vary across dry, normal, and wet years. More significant economic gains are found in normal and wet years than in dry years under the various forecast horizons. To mitigate drought effect on crop yield through irrigation, medium- or long-term climate predictions likely play a more important role than short-term forecasts. NOAA's imperfect 1-week forecast is still valuable in terms of both profit gain and water saving. Compared with the no-rain forecast case, the short-term imperfect forecasts could lead to additional 2.4-8.5% gain in profit and 11.0-26.9% water saving. However, the performance of the imperfect forecast is only slightly better than the ensemble weather forecast based on historical data and slightly inferior to the perfect forecast. It seems that the 1-week forecast horizon is too limited to evaluate the role of the various forecast scenarios for irrigation scheduling, which is actually a seasonal decision issue. For irrigation scheduling, both the forecast quality and the length of forecast time horizon matter. Thus, longer forecasts might be necessary to evaluate the role

  9. Near-Real Time Data for Space Weather Analyses: Present Status and Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael; Pulkkinen, Antti; Zheng, Yihua; Maddox, Marlo H.; Kuznetsova, Maria M.

    2011-01-01

    Assessments of the present state and future evolution of the space environment heavily relies on timely access to appropriate environmental measurements. These, near real-time (nrt), measurements provide a direct assessment of local or remote space environment conditions, they contribute to a more global description of Space Weather parameters through assimilative models, and they provide essential input into forecasting models. Unlike meteorology, however, the provision of these data is not a mainstream activity in the sense that critical space environment data are often derived from research rather than operational sensors. In addition, space research is a relatively immature field, where SUbstantial gaps in our knowledge impede our ability to optimally use available data streams. In this presentation, we provide examples of presently employed nrt data streams and their utility. We further discuss challenges and opportunities associated with the present approach to space weather forecasting. Finally, an outlook toward the future will be presented.

  10. NASA Dryden Flight Research Center's Space Weather Needs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wiley, Scott

    2011-01-01

    Presentation involves educating Goddard Space Weather staff about what our needs are, what type of aircraft we have and to learn what we have done in the past to minimize our exposure to Space Weather Hazards.

  11. SHINE and the Space Weather Community

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pizzo, V. J.

    2000-05-01

    SHINE (Solar, Heliospheric, and INterplanetary Environment) is an affiliation of researchers dedicated to promoting enhanced understanding of and predictive capabilities for solar disturbances that propagate to Earth. Like its sister organizations GEM and CEDAR, it is sponsored by NSF and its specific goal is to promote discussion, development, and dissemination of ideas and results related to interplanetary aspects of space weather research. Its main activities include facilitating collaborative research campaigns with related groups and conducting an annual workshop devoted to specific and timely space weather questions. In conjunction with the SPD meeting, this year's workshop highlights solar aspects of the Sun-Earth connection theme, but the group maintains strong interests in the generation and propagation of energetic particles in the interplanetary medium and the solar wind - magnetosphere interaction.

  12. Global Navigation Satellite Systems and Space Weather: Building upon the International Space Weather Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gadimova, S. H.; Haubold, H. J.

    2014-01-01

    Globally there is growing interest in better unders tanding solar-terrestrial interactions, particularly patterns and trends in space weather. This is not only for scientific reasons, but also because the reliable operation of ground-based and space-based assets and infrastructures is increasingly dependent on their robustness against the detrimental effects of space weather. Consequently, in 2009, the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) proposed the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI), as a follow-up activity to the International Heliophysical Year 2007 (IHY2007), to be implemented under a three-year workplan from 2010 to 2012 (UNGA Document, A/64/20). All achievements of international cooperation and coordination for ISWI, including instrumentation, data analysis, modelling, education, training and public outreach, are made a vailable through the ISWI Newsletter and the ISWI Website (http://www.iswi-secretariat.org/). Since the last solar maximum in 2000, societal dependence on global navigation satellite system (GNSS) has increased substantially. This situation has brought increasing attention to the subject of space weather and its effects on GNSS systems and users. Results concerning the impact of space weather on GNSS are made available at the Information Portal (www.unoosa.org) of the International Committee on Global Navigati on Satellite Systems (ICG). This paper briefly reviews the curre nt status of ISWI with regard to GNSS.

  13. Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Support Local Model Verification at National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zavordsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; Gotway, John H.; White, Kristopher; Medlin, Jeffrey; Wood, Lance; Radell, Dave

    2014-01-01

    Local modeling with a customized configuration is conducted at National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to produce high-resolution numerical forecasts that can better simulate local weather phenomena and complement larger scale global and regional models. The advent of the Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which provides a pre-compiled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and wrapper Perl scripts, has enabled forecasters to easily configure and execute the WRF model on local workstations. NWS WFOs often use EMS output to help in forecasting highly localized, mesoscale features such as convective initiation, the timing and inland extent of lake effect snow bands, lake and sea breezes, and topographically-modified winds. However, quantitatively evaluating model performance to determine errors and biases still proves to be one of the challenges in running a local model. Developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification software makes performing these types of quantitative analyses easier, but operational forecasters do not generally have time to familiarize themselves with navigating the sometimes complex configurations associated with the MET tools. To assist forecasters in running a subset of MET programs and capabilities, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed and transitioned a set of dynamic, easily configurable Perl scripts to collaborating NWS WFOs. The objective of these scripts is to provide SPoRT collaborating partners in the NWS with the ability to evaluate the skill of their local EMS model runs in near real time with little prior knowledge of the MET package. The ultimate goal is to make these verification scripts available to the broader NWS community in a future version of the EMS software. This paper provides an overview of the SPoRT MET scripts, instructions for how the scripts are run, and example use

  14. Transitioning From Space Physics Research to Space Weather Application at The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, C. I.

    2003-12-01

    The ability to monitor and predict our near-Earth space environment ("space weather") lags its sister discipline of terrestrial weather studies by years, in both observational and forecast capabilities. However, with current rapid progress in space physics research, and with current and near-future space environment sensors on research and operational satellites, the space weather operational community can reach new levels of maturity. A rapid transition of scientific research results into prototype operational products is especially important. This paper addresses the concept of rapid transition and presents examples carried out recently by scientists at JHU/APL, such as: OVATION (Oval Variation, Assessment, Tracking, Intensity and Online Nowcasting), and real-time geomagnetic activity nowcasting using observations from limited ground magnetometer stations. Several potential future application projects will be discussed as well; these space-environment products are designed to coincide with operationally significant events, such as communication outages or space object tracking.

  15. [Space Weather Impact on the Electricity Market

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    SaintCyr, O. Chris

    2007-01-01

    Forbes & St. Cyr (2004, hereafter "FISC") have provided evidence that the electricity market can be impacted by space weather. Our analysis indicated that the estimated market impact for PJM was 3.7 % or approximately $500 million dollars over the 19 month sample period. Kappenman has taken exception to this estimate and contends that we have exaggerated the magnitude of the problem that space weather poses to PJM. There are four specific issues: (1) he claims that we have ignored relevant literature; (2) he asserts that Dst is not an appropriate proxy for GICs in PJM; (3) he charges that our findings are inconsistent with the impact of the 17 September 2000 storm; and (4) he alleges that our discussion of October 2003 storms is misleading. In our article, we have explained our methodology, multivariate regression analysis, with a particular focus on how it compares to correlation analysis. We have also explained the limitations of our analysis. We noted that "...While the Dstlprice relationship was found to be robust, the precise estimate should be treated with a relatively high degree of caution given that econometric modeling is not an exact science as well as the fact that the measure of space weather may be a poor proxy for GICs" (paragraph 96). We have also noted that additional research using local magnetometer data are needed (paragraph 97). We did not claim that that our findings for PJM are representative of the impact of space weather on other power grids. On the contrary, we noted that ... "Only analysis of other power grids will tell. " (paragraph 97). Kappenman inaccurately asserts that we have indicated that our findings . . . "imply much higher total costs are likely across the US and elsewhere in the world." He also inaccurately asserts that we have claimed that " . . . Dst is the most suited proxy for GIC in the PJM grid.. ." Moreover, he inaccurately refers to our analysis as a correlation study that uses Dst as quasi-binary indicator.

  16. The surface of Mercury: space weathering effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baratta, G.; Kanuchova, Z.; Palumbo, M. E.; Sangiorgio, I.; Strazzulla, G.

    2011-10-01

    We present some results of an ongoing experimental research aimed at simulating the effects of ion bombardment (space weathering) in solid objects of the Solar System. In particular we have investigated the color changes induced by the ion bombardment in the UV-Vis-IR In this contribution we focus on materials (silicates) and spectral range (200-300 nanometers) particularly relevant to the study of the Mercury's surface.

  17. Operationalizing Space Weather Products - Process and Issues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scro, K. D.; Quigley, S.

    2006-12-01

    Developing and transitioning operational products for any customer base is a complicated process. This is the case for operational space weather products and services for the USAF. This presentation will provide information on the current state of affairs regarding the process required to take an idea from the research field to the real-time application of 24-hour space weather operations support. General principles and specific issues are discussed and will include: customer requirements, organizations in-play, funding, product types, acquisition of engineering and validation data, security classification, version control, and various important changes that occur during the process. The author's viewpoint is as an individual developing space environmental system-impact products for the US Air Force: 1) as a member of its primary research organization (Air Force Research Laboratory), 2) working with its primary space environment technology transition organization (Technology Application Division of the Space and Missile Systems Center, SMC/WXT), and 3) delivering to the primary sponsor/customer of such system-impact products (Air Force Space Command). The experience and focus is obviously on specific military operationalization process and issues, but most of the paradigm may apply to other (commercial) enterprises as well.

  18. AMS-02 as a Space Weather Observatory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitman, K.; Bindi, V.; Chati, M.; Consolandi, C.; Corti, C.

    2013-12-01

    The Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS-02) is a state-of-the-art space detector that measures particles in the energy range of hundreds of MeV to a few TeV. AMS-02 has been installed onboard of the International Space Station (ISS) since May 2011 where it will operate for the duration of the station. To date, there is an abundance of space-based solar data collected in the low energy regimes, whereas there are very few direct measurements of higher energy particles available. AMS-02 is capable of measuring arrival time and composition of the highest energy SEPs in space. It is crucial to build a better knowledge base regarding the most energetic and potentially harmful events. We are currently developing a program to employ AMS-02 as a real-time space weather observatory. SEPs with higher energies are usually accelerated during a short period of time and they are the first particles to reach the Earth. AMS-02, measuring these highest energy SEPs, can alert the onset of an SEP event. During the past two years of operation, we have identified two main quantities in AMS-02 that are particularly sensitive to the arrival of SEPs: the detector livetime and the transition radiation detector (TRD) event size. By monitoring the detector livetime and the TRD event size, AMS-02 can pinpoint in real-time the arrival of SEPs inside the Earth's magnetosphere operating as a space weather detector.

  19. Training the next generation of scientists in Weather Forecasting: new approaches with real models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carver, Glenn; Váňa, Filip; Siemen, Stephan; Kertesz, Sandor; Keeley, Sarah

    2014-05-01

    The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts operationally produce medium range forecasts using what is internationally acknowledged as the world leading global weather forecast model. Future development of this scientifically advanced model relies on a continued availability of experts in the field of meteorological science and with high-level software skills. ECMWF therefore has a vested interest in young scientists and University graduates developing the necessary skills in numerical weather prediction including both scientific and technical aspects. The OpenIFS project at ECMWF maintains a portable version of the ECMWF forecast model (known as IFS) for use in education and research at Universities, National Meteorological Services and other research and education organisations. OpenIFS models can be run on desktop or high performance computers to produce weather forecasts in a similar way to the operational forecasts at ECMWF. ECMWF also provide the Metview desktop application, a modern, graphical, and easy to use tool for analysing and visualising forecasts that is routinely used by scientists and forecasters at ECMWF and other institutions. The combination of Metview with the OpenIFS models has the potential to deliver classroom-friendly tools allowing students to apply their theoretical knowledge to real-world examples using a world-leading weather forecasting model. In this paper we will describe how the OpenIFS model has been used for teaching. We describe the use of Linux based 'virtual machines' pre-packaged on USB sticks that support a technically easy and safe way of providing 'classroom-on-a-stick' learning environments for advanced training in numerical weather prediction. We welcome discussions with interested parties.

  20. ​The LAGO Space Weather Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asorey, Hernan; Dasso, Sergio

    The LAGO project is a non-centralized and distributed collaborative network composed by more than 30 institutions from nine ​Latin American countries. It is an extended cosmic ray​ observatory ​formed by water Cherenkov detectors (WCDs), that measure​ with extreme detail​ the temporal evolution of the radiation flux at ground level. It is mainly oriented to make basic research on three branches: extreme universe, space weather, and atmospheric radiation at ground level. The LAGO WCDs network spans over different sites located at significantly different latitudes (from equatorial latitudes up to the antartic region) and different altitudes (from sea level up to more than 5000 meters over sea level), covering a huge range of geomagnetic rigidity cut-offs and atmospheric absorption/reaction levels. Thus, using observations from the LAGO network, it is possible to study the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays from combining different ground sites, in particular it is possible to study the long-term modulation as well as transient events. This presentation will introduce the LAGO ​Space Weather Program. In particular, real data of the Forbush decrease event of March 2012 will be presented to show how the LAGO network of WCDs can complement present measurements of space weather related phenomena from ground level. This study will be combined with numerical simulations of the expected flux​ at each site​ and with the analysis of the interplanetary conditions from 'in situ' observations recorded by spacecraft in the solar wind.

  1. Solar Sources of Severe Space Weather

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.; Shibasaki, K.

    2012-01-01

    Severe space weather is characterized by intense particle radiation from the Sun and severe geomagnetic storm caused by magnetized solar plasma arriving at Earth. Intense particle radiation is almost always caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) traveling from the Sun at super-Alfvenic speeds leading to fast-mode MHD shocks and particle acceleration by the shocks. When a CME arrives at Earth, it can interact with Earth's magnetopause resulting in solar plasma entry into the magnetosphere and a geomagnetic storm depending on the magnetic structure of the CME. Particle radiation starts affecting geospace as soon as the CMEs leave the Sun and the geospace may be immersed in the radiation for several days. On the other hand, the geomagnetic storm happens only upon arrival of the CME at Earth. The requirements for the production of particles and magnetic storms by CMEs are different in a number of respects: solar source location, CME magnetic structure, conditions in the ambient solar wind, and shock-driving ability of CMEs. Occasionally, intense geomagnetic storms are caused by corotating interaction regions (CIRs) that form in the interplanetary space when the fast solar wind from coronal holes overtakes the slow wind from the quiet regions. CIRs also accelerate particles, but when they reach several AU from the Sun, so their impact on Earth's space environment is not significant. In addition to these plasma effects, solar flares that accompany CMEs also produce excess ionization in the ionosphere causing sudden ionospheric disturbances. This paper highlights these space weather effects using space weather events observed by space and ground based instruments during of solar cycles 23 and 24.

  2. Interplanetary Space Weather and Its Planetary Connection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crosby, Norma; Bothmer, Volker; Facius, Rainer; Grießmeier, Jean-Mathias; Moussas, Xenophon; Panasyuk, Mikhail; Romanova, Natalia; Withers, Paul

    2008-01-01

    Interplanetary travel is not just a science fiction scenario anymore, but a goal as realistic as when our ancestors started to cross the oceans. With curiosity driving humans to visit other planets in our solar system, the understanding of interplanetary space weather is a vital subject today, particularly because the physical conditions faced during a space vehicle's transit to its targeted solar system object are crucial to a mission's success and vital to the health and safety of spacecraft crew, especially when scheduling planned extravehicular activities.

  3. Space Weather Effects on Range Operations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-02-01

    galaxy for some ten million years before intersecting the earth. They are partly kept out by the earth’s magnetic field and have easier access at the...prediction based on AP- 8 & 1970 magnetic field model. Double-peak pass at orbit 23 is not predicted. Figure 5 show count-rate profiles for a typical day in...space that affect Earth and its technological systems. Space Weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth’s magnetic field

  4. Space weather activities at NOAA s Space Environment Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunches, J.

    The NOAA Space Environment Center is the focal point for real-time space weather monitoring and prediction in the United States . The Space Weather Operations (SWO) division staffs a 24-hour/day operations center, through which both in-situ and remotely sensed data and imagery flow. These diverse data streams are analyzed continuously, and that information is applied to both predictions and specifications of various aspects of the space environment. These include the behavior of the geomagnetic field, the character of the ionosphere, and the strength of the near-earth radiation environment. Models are brought to bear in each of thes e areas, as SEC has an active research-to-operations transition effort. The Rapid Prototyping Center is the venue through which pertinent models and data must pass to be brought into the operational arena. The model outputs are then made available both internally and externally. SEC is a member of the International Space Environment Service (ISES), a partnership currently consisting of eleven nations. The mission of the ISES is to encourage and facilitate near-real-time international monitoring and prediction of the space environment by: the rapid exchange of space environment information; the standardization of the methodology for space environment observations and data reduction; the uniform publication of observations and statistics; and the application of standardized space environment products and services to assist users in reducing the impact of space weather on activities of human interest. An overview of the operational attributes of the SEC, and the function of the ISES, will be presented. Additional issues related to space weather customers, new data streams to be available in the near-term, and how these new data and imagery will be integrated int o operations will be discussed.

  5. A biometeorological procedure for weather forecast to assess the optimal outdoor clothing insulation.

    PubMed

    Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Modesti, Pietro Amedeo; Maracchi, Giampiero; Gensini, Gian Franco; Orlandini, Simone

    2008-09-01

    Clothing insulation represents an important parameter strongly dependent on climate/weather variability and directly involved in the assessment of the human energy balance. Few studies tried to explore the influence of climate changes on the optimal clothing insulation for outdoor spaces. For this reason, the aim of this work was to investigate mainly the optimal outdoor minimum clothing insulation value required to reach the thermal neutrality (min_clo) related to climate change on a seasonal basis. Subsequently, we developed an example of operational biometeorological procedure to provide 72-hour forecast maps concerning the min_clo. Hourly meteorological data were provided by three Italian weather stations located in Turin, Rome and Palermo, for the period 1951-1995. Environmental variables and subjective characteristics referred to an average adult young male at rest and at a very high metabolic rate were used as input variables to calculate the min_clo by using a thermal index based on the human energy balance. Trends of min_clo were assessed by a non-parametric statistical method. Results showed a lower magnitude of trends in a subject at a very high metabolic rate than at rest. Turin always showed a decrease of min_clo during the study period and prevalently negative trends were also observed in Palermo. On the other hand, an opposite situation was observed in Rome, especially during the morning in all seasons. The development of a daily operational procedure to forecast customized min_clo could provide useful information for the outdoor clothing fitting that might help to reduce the weather-related human health risk.

  6. Weather monitoring and forecasting over eastern Attica (Greece) in the frame of FLIRE project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotroni, Vassiliki; Lagouvardos, Konstantinos; Chrysoulakis, Nektarios; Makropoulos, Christtos; Mimikou, Maria; Papathanasiou, Chrysoula; Poursanidis, Dimitris

    2015-04-01

    In the frame of FLIRE project a Decision Support System has been built with the aim to support decision making of Civil Protection Agencies and local stakeholders in the area of east Attica (Greece), in the cases of forest fires and floods. In this presentation we focus on a specific action that focuses on the provision of high resolution short-term weather forecasting data as well as of dense meteorological observations over the study area. Both weather forecasts and observations serve as an input in the Weather Information Management Tool (WIMT) of the Decision Support System. We focus on: (a) the description of the adopted strategy for setting-up the operational weather forecasting chain that provides the weather forecasts for the FLIRE project needs, (b) the presentation of the surface network station that provides real-time weather monitoring of the study area and (c) the strategy adopted for issuing smart alerts for thunderstorm forecasting based of real-time lightning observations as well as satellite observations.

  7. Automated Solar Feature Detection for Space Weather Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pérez-Suárez, David; Higgins, Paul A.; Bloomfield, D. Shaun; McAteer, R. T. James; Krista, Larisza D.; Byrne, Jason P.; Gallagher, Peter. T.

    2011-03-01

    The solar surface and atmosphere are highly dynamic plasma environments, which evolve over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Large-scale eruptions, such as coronal mass ejections, can be accelerated to millions of kilometres per hour in a matter of minutes, making their automated detection and characterisation challenging. Additionally, there are numerous faint solar features, such as coronal holes and coronal dimmings, which are important for space weather monitoring and forecasting, but their low intensity and sometimes transient nature makes them problematic to detect using traditional image processing techniques. These difficulties are compounded by advances in ground- and space- based instrumentation, which have increased the volume of data that solar physicists are confronted with on a minute-by-minute basis; NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory for example is returning many thousands of images per hour (~1.5 TB/day). This chapter reviews recent advances in the application of images processing techniques to the automated detection of active regions, coronal holes, filaments, CMEs, and coronal dimmings for the purposes of space weather monitoring and prediction.

  8. On the Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Space Weather Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Riley, Pete

    2012-01-01

    By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and greater than 30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst less than - 850 nT) occurring within the next decade is approximately 12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.

  9. Comparative Science and Space Weather Around the Heliosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grande, Manuel; Andre, Nicolas; COSPAR/ILWS Roadmap Team

    2016-10-01

    Space weather refers to the variable state of the coupled space environment related to changing conditions on the Sun and in the terrestrial atmosphere. The presentation will focus on the critical missing knowledge or observables needed to significantly advance our modelling and forecasting capabilities throughout the solar system putting these in perspective to the recommendations in the recent COSPAR/ILWS roadmap. The COSPAR/ILWS RoadMap focuses on high-priority challenges in key areas of research leading to a better understanding of the space environment and a demonstrable improvement in the provision of timely, reliable information pertinent to effects on civilian space- and ground-based systems, for all stakeholders around the world. The RoadMap prioritizes those advances that can be made on short, intermediate and decadal time scales, identifying gaps and opportunities from a predominantly, but not exclusively, geocentric perspective. While discussion of space weather effects has so far largely been concerned to the near-Earth environment, there are significant present and future applications to the locations beyond, and to other planets. Most obviously, perhaps, are the radiation hazards experienced by astronauts on the way to, and on the surface of, the Moon and Mars. Indeed, the environment experienced by planetary spacecraft in transit and at their destinations is of course critical to their design and successful operation. The case of forthcoming missions to Jupiter and Europa is an extreme example. Moreover, such craft can provide information which in turn increases our understanding of geospace. One initiative is that under Horizon 2020, Europlanet RI will set up a Europlanet Planetary Space Weather Service (PSWS). PSWS will make five entirely new `toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: - a General planetary space weather toolkit; Mars (in support of the ESA ExoMars missions to be launched

  10. Comparative science and space weather around the heliosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grande, Manuel

    2016-07-01

    Space weather refers to the variable state of the coupled space environment related to changing conditions on the Sun and in the terrestrial atmosphere. The presentation will focus on the critical missing knowledge or observables needed to significantly advance our modelling and forecasting capabilities throughout the solar system putting these in perspective to the recommendations in the recent COSPAR/ILWS roadmap. The COSPAR/ILWS RoadMap focuses on high-priority challenges in key areas of research leading to a better understanding of the space environment and a demonstrable improvement in the provision of timely, reliable information pertinent to effects on civilian space- and ground-based systems, for all stakeholders around the world. The RoadMap prioritizes those advances that can be made on short, intermediate and decadal time scales, identifying gaps and opportunities from a predominantly, but not exclusively, geocentric perspective. While discussion of space weather effects has so far largely been confined to the near-Earth environment, there are significant present and future applications to the locations beyond, and to other planets. Most obviously, perhaps, are the radiation hazards experienced by astronauts on the way to, and on the surface of, the Moon and Mars. Indeed, the environment experienced by planetary spacecraft in transit and at their destinations is of course critical to their design and successful operation. The case of forthcoming missions to Jupiter and Europa is an extreme example. Moreover, such craft can provide information which in turn increases our understanding of geospace. One initiative is that under Horizon 2020, Europlanet RI will set up a Europlanet Planetary Space Weather Service (PSWS). PSWS will make five entirely new 'toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: - a General planetary space weather toolkit; Mars (in support of the ESA ExoMars missions to be launched

  11. Global economic impacts of severe Space Weather.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schulte In Den Baeumen, Hagen; Cairns, Iver

    Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) strong enough to create electromagnetic effects at latitudes below the auroral oval are frequent events, and could have substantial impacts on electric power transmission and telecommunication grids. Modern society’s heavy reliance on these domestic and international networks increases our susceptibility to such a severe Space Weather event. Using a new high-resolution model of the global economy we simulate the economic impact of large CMEs for 3 different planetary orientations. We account for the economic impacts within the countries directly affected as well as the post-disaster economic shock in partner economies through international trade. For the CMEs modeled the total global economic impacts would range from US 380 billion to US 1 trillion. Of this total economic shock 50 % would be felt in countries outside the zone of direct impact, leading to a loss in global GDP of 0.1 - 1 %. A severe Space Weather event could lead to global economic damages of the same order as other weather disasters, climate change, and extreme financial crisis.

  12. The Mauna Kea Weather Center: Custom Atmospheric Forecasting Support for Mauna Kea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Businger, Steven

    2011-03-01

    The success of operations at Mauna Kea Observatories is strongly influenced by weather conditions. The Mauna Kea Weather Center, an interdisciplinary research program, was established in 1999 to develop and provide custom weather support for Mauna Kea Observatories. The operational forecasting goals of the program are to facilitate the best possible use of favorable atmospheric conditions for scientific benefit and to ensure operational safety. During persistent clear periods, astronomical observing quality varies substantially due to changes in the vertical profiles of temperature, wind, moisture, and turbulence. Cloud and storm systems occasionally cause adverse or even hazardous conditions. A dedicated, daily, real-time mesoscale numerical modeling effort provides crucial forecast guidance in both cases. Several key atmospheric variables are forecast with sufficient skill to be of operational and scientific benefit to the telescopes on Mauna Kea. Summit temperature forecasts allow mirrors to be set to the ambient temperature to reduce image distortion. Precipitable water forecasts allow infrared observations to be prioritized according to atmospheric opacity. Forecasts of adverse and hazardous conditions protect the safety of personnel and allow for scheduling of maintenance when observing is impaired by cloud. The research component of the project continues to improve the accuracy and content of the forecasts. In particular, case studies have resulted in operational forecasts of astronomical observing quality, or seeing.

  13. Assessment and forecasting of lightning potential and its effect on launch operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and John F. Kennedy Space Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weems, J.; Wyse, N.; Madura, J.; Secrist, M.; Pinder, C.

    1991-01-01

    Lightning plays a pivotal role in the operation decision process for space and ballistic launches at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center. Lightning forecasts are the responsibility of Detachment 11, 4th Weather Wing's Cape Canaveral Forecast Facility. These forecasts are important to daily ground processing as well as launch countdown decisions. The methodology and equipment used to forecast lightning are discussed. Impact on a recent mission is summarized.

  14. The very short-term rainfall forecasting for a mountainous watershed by means of an ensemble numerical weather prediction system in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Ming-Chang; Lin, Gwo-Fong

    2017-03-01

    During typhoons, accurate forecasts of rainfall are always desired for various kinds of disaster warning systems to reduce the impact of rainfall-induced disasters. However, rainfall forecasting, especially the very short-term (hourly) rainfall, is one of the most difficult tasks in hydrology due to the high variability in space and time and the complex physical process. In this study, the purpose is to provide effective forecasts of very short-term rainfall by means of the ensemble numerical weather prediction system in Taiwan. To this end, the ensemble forecasts of hourly rainfall from this ensemble numerical weather prediction system are analyzed to evaluate the performance. Furthermore, a methodology, which is based on the principle of analogue prediction, is proposed to effectively process these ensemble forecasts for improving the performance on very short-term rainfall forecasting. To clearly demonstrate the advantage of the proposed methodology, actual application is conducted on a mountainous watershed to yield 1- to 6-h ahead forecasts during typhoon events. The results indicate that the proposed methodology is better performed and more flexible than the conventional one. Generally, the proposed methodology provides improved performance for very short-term rainfall forecasting, especially for 1- to 2-h ahead forecasting. The improved forecasts provided by the proposed methodology are expected to be useful to support disaster warning systems, such as flash-flood, landslide, and debris flow warning systems, during typhoons.

  15. Historical Space Weather Datasets within NOAA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denig, W. F.; Mabie, J. J.; Horan, K.; Clark, C.

    2013-12-01

    The National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is primarily responsible for scientific data stewardship of operational space weather data from NOAA's fleet of environmental satellites in geostationary and polar, low-earth orbits. In addition to this and as the former World Data Center for Solar Terrestrial Physics from 1957 to 2011 NGDC acquired a large variety of solar and space environmental data in differing formats including paper records and on film. Management of this heterogeneous collection of environmental data is a continued responsibility of NGDC as a participant in the new World Data System. Through the former NOAA Climate Data Modernization Program many of these records were converted to digital format and are readily available online. However, reduced funding and staff have put a strain on NGDC's ability to effectively steward these historical datasets, some of which are unique and, in particular cases, were the basis of fundamental scientific breakthroughs in our understanding of the near-earth space environment. In this talk, I will provide an overview of the historical space weather datasets which are currently managed by NGDC and discuss strategies for preserving these data during these fiscally stressing times.

  16. Improvement of forecast skill for severe weather by merging radar-based extrapolation and storm-scale NWP corrected forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Gaili; Wong, Wai-Kin; Hong, Yang; Liu, Liping; Dong, Jili; Xue, Ming

    2015-03-01

    The primary objective of this study is to improve the performance of deterministic high resolution rainfall forecasts caused by severe storms by merging an extrapolation radar-based scheme with a storm-scale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. Effectiveness of Multi-scale Tracking and Forecasting Radar Echoes (MTaRE) model was compared with that of a storm-scale NWP model named Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) for forecasting a violent tornado event that developed over parts of western and much of central Oklahoma on May 24, 2011. Then the bias corrections were performed to improve the forecast accuracy of ARPS forecasts. Finally, the corrected ARPS forecast and radar-based extrapolation were optimally merged by using a hyperbolic tangent weight scheme. The comparison of forecast skill between MTaRE and ARPS in high spatial resolution of 0.01° × 0.01° and high temporal resolution of 5 min showed that MTaRE outperformed ARPS in terms of index of agreement and mean absolute error (MAE). MTaRE had a better Critical Success Index (CSI) for less than 20-min lead times and was comparable to ARPS for 20- to 50-min lead times, while ARPS had a better CSI for more than 50-min lead times. Bias correction significantly improved ARPS forecasts in terms of MAE and index of agreement, although the CSI of corrected ARPS forecasts was similar to that of the uncorrected ARPS forecasts. Moreover, optimally merging results using hyperbolic tangent weight scheme further improved the forecast accuracy and became more stable.

  17. Investigating Surface Bias Errors in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model using a Geographic Information System (GIS)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-02-01

    ARL-TR-7212 ● FEB 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Investigating Surface Bias Errors in the Weather Research and Forecasting ...ARL-TR-7212 ● FEB 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Investigating Surface Bias Errors in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model...SUBTITLE Investigating surface bias errors in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model using a Geographic Information System (GIS) 5a

  18. Adaption of the Air Weather Service Fog Model to Forecast Radiation Fog Events in the Southeast United States

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1997-03-01

    ADAPTATION OF THE AIR WEATHER SERVICE FO MODEL TO FORECAST RADIATION FOG EVENT IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THESIS Andrew C. Goodnite, Captain...ENP/97M-06 ADAPTATION OF THE AIR WEATHER SERVICE FOG MODEL TO FORECAST RADIATION FOG EVENTS IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THESIS Andrew C. Goodnite...AIR WEATHER SERVICE FOG MODEL TO FORECAST RADIATION FOG EVENTS IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of

  19. InFlight Weather Forecasts at Your Fingertips

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2003-01-01

    A new information system is delivering real-time weather reports to pilots where they need it the most - inside their aircraft cockpits. Codeveloped by NASA and ViGYAN, Inc., the WSI InFlight(trademark) Cockpit Weather System provides a continuous, satellite-based broadcast of weather information to a portable or panel-mounted display inside the cockpit. With complete coverage and content for the continental United States at any altitude, the system is specifically designed for inflight use.

  20. The RMI Space Weather and Navigation Systems (SWANS) Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warnant, Rene; Lejeune, Sandrine; Wautelet, Gilles; Spits, Justine; Stegen, Koen; Stankov, Stan

    The SWANS (Space Weather and Navigation Systems) research and development project (http://swans.meteo.be) is an initiative of the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) under the auspices of the Belgian Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence (STCE). The RMI SWANS objectives are: research on space weather and its effects on GNSS applications; permanent mon-itoring of the local/regional geomagnetic and ionospheric activity; and development/operation of relevant nowcast, forecast, and alert services to help professional GNSS/GALILEO users in mitigating space weather effects. Several SWANS developments have already been implemented and available for use. The K-LOGIC (Local Operational Geomagnetic Index K Calculation) system is a nowcast system based on a fully automated computer procedure for real-time digital magnetogram data acquisition, data screening, and calculating the local geomagnetic K index. Simultaneously, the planetary Kp index is estimated from solar wind measurements, thus adding to the service reliability and providing forecast capabilities as well. A novel hybrid empirical model, based on these ground-and space-based observations, has been implemented for nowcasting and forecasting the geomagnetic index, issuing also alerts whenever storm-level activity is indicated. A very important feature of the nowcast/forecast system is the strict control on the data input and processing, allowing for an immediate assessment of the output quality. The purpose of the LIEDR (Local Ionospheric Electron Density Reconstruction) system is to acquire and process data from simultaneous ground-based GNSS TEC and digital ionosonde measurements, and subsequently to deduce the vertical electron density distribution. A key module is the real-time estimation of the ionospheric slab thickness, offering additional infor-mation on the local ionospheric dynamics. The RTK (Real Time Kinematic) status mapping provides a quick look at the small-scale ionospheric effects on the RTK

  1. Space weather effects and commerical airlines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, J.; Bentley, R.; Hunter, R.; Taylor, G.; Thomas, D.

    Space Weather (SW) phenomena can effect many areas of commercial airline operations including avionics, communications and GPS navigation systems. Of particular importance at present is the recently introduced EU legislation requiring the monitoring of aircrew radiation exposure, including any variations at aircraft altitudes due to solar activity. The Mullard Space Science Laboratory is collaborating with Virgin Atlantic Airways, the Civil Aviation Authority and the National Physical Laboratory on a 3- year project to monitor the levels of cosmic radiation on long-haul flights. The study will determine whether computer models currently used to predict radiation exposure of aircrew are adequate. It also aims to determine whether solar or geomagnetic activity can cause significant modifications to the doses. This presentation will begin by showing some of the preliminary results obtained so far. As an example, we present a comparison of flight doses measured following the 14t h July 2000 X - class flare that was accompanied by a major Solar Particle Event (SPE). The results highlight the importance of a range of external factors that can strongly influence how SPEs may effect the measured dose at aircraft altitudes. At present, any SPE contributions in the airlines' dose records can only be poorly estimated retrospectively. Ideally, it would be better to try to avoid operating during these possibly significant radiation - enhancing events by utilising SW information (alerts, warnings, etc.). However, doing so poses many difficult operational problems for such a heavily regulated international industry, in terms of safety, security and procedures. Therefore, the use of timely SW information, which is still very unreliable, in a similar manner to terrestrial weather will require agreement from the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and International Air Transport Association (IATA) to Air Traffic Control and Aviation Regulatory Authority's. This

  2. Impact of prescribed diabatic heating on short range weather forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marx, L.; Shukla, J.

    1984-01-01

    Using the 9 layer general circulation model developed at the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS), several 4 to 5 day integrations were made to assess the impact that latent heating processes (supersaturation and moist convective) have on the model forecasts. In an earlier study by Shukla (1981) it was hypothesized that because of strong interaction between dynamics and moist convection, small initial errors grow very fast and make short range forecasting difficult. The purpose of this study was to examine if prescribed heating rates can improve the forecasts for a few days.

  3. Forecasting irrigation demand by assimilating satellite images and numerical weather predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pelosi, Anna; Medina, Hanoi; Villani, Paolo; Falanga Bolognesi, Salvatore; D'Urso, Guido; Battista Chirico, Giovanni

    2016-04-01

    Forecasting irrigation water demand, with small predictive uncertainty in the short-medium term, is fundamental for an efficient planning of water resource allocation among multiple users and for decreasing water and energy consumptions. In this study we present an innovative system for forecasting irrigation water demand, applicable at different spatial scales: from the farm level to the irrigation district level. The forecast system is centred on a crop growth model assimilating data from satellite images and numerical weather forecasts, according to a stochastic ensemble-based approach. Different sources of uncertainty affecting model predictions are represented by an ensemble of model trajectories, each generated by a possible realization of the model components (model parameters, input weather data and model state variables). The crop growth model is based on a set of simplified analytical relations, with the aim to assess biomass, leaf area index (LAI) growth and evapotranspiration rate with a daily time step. Within the crop growth model, LAI dynamics is let be governed by temperature and leaf dry matter supply, according to the development stage of the crop. The model assimilates LAI data retrieved from VIS-NIR high-resolution multispectral satellite images. Numerical weather model outputs are those from the European limited area ensemble prediction system (COSMO-LEPS), which provides forecasts up to five days with a spatial resolution of seven kilometres. Weather forecasts are sequentially bias corrected based on data from ground weather stations. The forecasting system is evaluated in experimental areas of southern Italy during three irrigation seasons. The performance analysis shows very accurate irrigation water demand forecasts, which make the proposed system a valuable support for water planning and saving at farm level as well as for water management at larger spatial scales.

  4. Space Weather Tools of the Trade - A Changing Mix

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunches, J.; Crowley, G.; Pilinski, M.; Winkler, C.; Fish, C. S.; Hunton, D.; Reynolds, A.; Azeem, I.

    2014-12-01

    Historically, operational space weather tools have focused on the large-scale. The Sun, solar wind, magnetosphere, and ionosphere were the domains that, rightly so, needed the attention of experimentalists and scientists to fashion the best sensors and physics-based models available. These initiatives resulted in significant improvements for operational forecasters. For example, geomagnetic storm predictions now do not have to rely on proxies for CMEs, such as type II sweep, but rather make use of available actual observations of CMEs from which the true velocity vector may be determined. The users of space weather services profited from the better large-scale observations, but now have expressed their desire for even better spatially and time-resolved granularity of products and services. This natural evolution towards refining products has ushered in the era of the smaller mission, the more efficient sensor. CubeSats and compact ionospheric monitors are examples of the instrumental suite now emerging to bring in this new era. This presentation will show examples of the new mix of smaller systems that enable finer, more well-resolved products and services for the operational world. A number of technologies are now in the marketplace demonstrating the value of more observations at a decreasing cost. In addition, new models are looming to take advantage of these better observations. Examples of models poised to take advantage of new observations will be given.

  5. COMESEP: a new type of space weather alert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crosby, Norma; Veronig, Astrid; Robbrecht, Eva; Vrsnak, Bojan; Vennerstrom, Susanne; Malandraki, Olga; Dalla, Silvia; Srivastava, Nandita; Hesse, Michael; Odstrcil, Dusan

    2013-04-01

    Tools for forecasting geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms are and have been developed under the three-year EU FP7 COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles) collaborative project. In its final year, the validation and implementation of the produced tools into an operational space weather alert system is now underway. Geomagnetic and SEP radiation storm alerts are being based on the COMESEP definition of risk. The COMESEP alert system will provide notifications for the space weather community. To achieve this the system relies on both models and data, the latter including near real-time data as well as historical data. One of the important outcomes of the scientific analysis has been to identify key ingredients that lead to magnetic storms and SEP events. COMESEP is a unique cross-collaboration effort and bridges the gap between the SEP, coronal mass ejection and terrestrial effects scientific communities. For more information see the project website (http://www.comesep.eu/). This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252).

  6. Space-Data Routers: Advanced data routing protocols for enhancing data exploitation for space weather applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Daglis, Ioannis A.; Balasis, George; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Tsaoussidis, Vassilios; Diamantopoulos, Sotirios

    2014-05-01

    Data sharing and access are major issues in space sciences, as they influence the degree of data exploitation. The availability of multi-spacecraft distributed observation methods and adaptive mission architectures require computationally intensive analysis methods. Moreover, accurate space weather forecasting and future space exploration far from Earth will be in need of real-time data distribution and assimilation technologies. The FP7-Space collaborative research project "Space-Data Routers" (SDR) relies on space internetworking and in particular on Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN), which marks the new era in space communications. SDR unifies space and earth communication infrastructures and delivers a set of tools and protocols for space-data exploitation. The main goal is to allow space agencies, academic institutes and research centers to share space-data generated by single or multiple missions, in an efficient, secure and automated manner. Here we are presenting the architecture and basic functionality of a DTN-based application specifically designed in the framework of the SDR project, for data query, retrieval and administration that will enable addressing outstanding science questions related to space weather, through the provision of simultaneous real-time data sampling at multiple points in space. The work leading to this paper has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-SPACE-2010-1) under grant agreement no. 263330 for the SDR (Space-Data Routers for Exploiting Space Data) collaborative research project. This paper reflects only the authors' views and the Union is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

  7. The Role of Model and Initial Condition Error in Numerical Weather Forecasting Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prive, Nikki C.; Errico, Ronald M.

    2013-01-01

    A series of experiments that explore the roles of model and initial condition error in numerical weather prediction are performed using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO). The use of an OSSE allows the analysis and forecast errors to be explicitly calculated, and different hypothetical observing networks can be tested with ease. In these experiments, both a full global OSSE framework and an 'identical twin' OSSE setup are utilized to compare the behavior of the data assimilation system and evolution of forecast skill with and without model error. The initial condition error is manipulated by varying the distribution and quality of the observing network and the magnitude of observation errors. The results show that model error has a strong impact on both the quality of the analysis field and the evolution of forecast skill, including both systematic and unsystematic model error components. With a realistic observing network, the analysis state retains a significant quantity of error due to systematic model error. If errors of the analysis state are minimized, model error acts to rapidly degrade forecast skill during the first 24-48 hours of forward integration. In the presence of model error, the impact of observation errors on forecast skill is small, but in the absence of model error, observation errors cause a substantial degradation of the skill of medium range forecasts.

  8. Is Space Weather impact different over Africa, and if so why?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yizengaw, E.; Doherty, P. H.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.

    2014-12-01

    With the increasing reliance on technology, the impact of space weather will certainly increase unless suitable protective measures are taken. It is well recognized that many space weather impacts arise from structures and dynamics of the equatorial ionosphere which is one of the most complex region that hosts numerous instabilities and irregularities or plasma bubbles. These irregularities cause information loss in satellite communications, as well as degradation in positioning and navigation signals that are used in aviation and maritime industries. An important question with considerable practical importance is whether ionospheric space weather impacts are the same over the American, African, and Asian longitude sectors, or are they different, and if so why? Satellite observations show ionospheric irregularities in the African continent is more prolific event and occurs more frequently in Africa compared to other longitudinal sectors. However, satellite observations are limited to a certain local time; and thus the needs of operational ground-based instruments, in the region like Africa, are essential to understand the physics behind the longitudinal variability of space weather impacts and improve our global forecasting capabilities which are a major objective of the space science community. Using the recently deployed ground-based multi-instruments (augmented with data from space-based instruments), we will present the temporal and seasonal variability of the space weather impacts over the African continent and provide potential evidences about the possible causes that makes the space weather impact in Africa is unique compared to other longitudinal sectors.

  9. SEASAT economic assessment. Volume 9: Ports and harbors case study and generalization. [economic benefits of SEASAT satellites to harbors and shipping industries through improved weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1975-01-01

    This case study and generalization quantify benefits made possible through improved weather forecasting resulting from the integration of SEASAT data into local weather forecasts. The major source of avoidable economic losses to shipping from inadequate weather forecasting data is shown to be dependent on local precipitation forecasting. The ports of Philadelphia and Boston were selected for study.

  10. Oh! I Slipped the Surly Bounds of Earth....and Ran into Space Weather!

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Golightly, Michael J.

    2004-01-01

    Over the past decade the concept of space weather has been introduced and matured in both the scientific community and popular press. Likewise the concept of space climatology recently also is being advanced. Closely linked to these concepts are their impacts on ground- and space-based technological systems; one such system commonly mentioned is manned space flight exemplified by the Space Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS). From a manned space flight perspective, space weather and space climatology have significant effects on the amount of radiation exposure received by humans in space from the ambient high-energy charged particles present in interplanetary space and trapped in the geomagnetosphere. Whereas the impact of space weather for most technological systems is usually discrete and well correlated in time, the principle impact of space weather and space climatology is to increase the probability of latent cancer formation in thetraveler cohort. In this regard, while space weather may be the dominating factor for a given mission, over the life of a long-term program such as the Space Shuttle or ISS space climatology is the controlling factor of latent cancer risk. Human radiation exposure enhancements associated with space weather disturbances has been a concern among scientist and mission controllers since the inception of manned spaceflight nearly forty years ago. This led NASA to develop, in conjunction with the Environmental Science Services Administration s Space Disturbance Forecast Center and the USAF/AWS, the Solar Particle Alert Network (SPAN)-the foundation of an initial U.S. space weather monitoring and forecasting service. Since Apollo, routine space flight operations have evolved to include the use of space weather and climatology data provided through a world-wide network of operational space weather data services to predict and recommend actions to minimize astronaut radiation exposures. NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG

  11. Assimilation of microwave, infrared, and radio occultation satellite observations with a weather research and forecasting model for heavy rainfall forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boonyuen, Pakornpop; Wu, Falin; Phunthirawuth, Parwapath; Zhao, Yan

    2016-10-01

    In this research, satellite observation data were assimilated into Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) by using Three-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation System (3DVAR) to analyze its impacts on heavy rainfall forecasts. The weather case for this research was during 13-18 September 2015. Tropical cyclone VAMCO, forming in South China Sea near with Vietnam, moved on west direction to the Northeast of Thailand. After passed through Vietnam, the tropical cyclone was become to depression and there was heavy rainfall throughout the area of Thailand. Observation data, used in this research, included microwave radiance observations from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A), infrared radiance observations from Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), and GPS radio occultation (RO) from the COSMIC and CHAMP missions. The experiments were designed in five cases, namely, 1) without data assimilation (CTRL); 2) with only RO data (RO); 3) with only AMSU-A data (AMSUA); 4) with only IASI data (IASI); and 5) with all of RO, AMSU-A and IASI data assimilation (ALL). Then all experiment results would be compared with both NCEP FNL (Final) Operational Global Analysis and the observation data from Thai Meteorological Department weather stations. The experiments result demonstrated that with microwave (AMSU-A), infrared (IASI) and GPS radio occultation (RO) data assimilation can produce the positive impact on analyses and forecast. All of satellite data assimilations have corresponding positive effects in term of temperature and humidity forecasting, and the GPS-RO assimilation produces the best of temperature and humidity forecast biases. The satellite data assimilation has a good impact on temperature and humidity in lower troposphere and vertical distribution that very helpful for heavy rainfall forecast improvement.

  12. Space Weather, Geomagnetic Disturbances and Impact on the High-Voltage Transmission Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pullkkinen, A.

    2011-01-01

    Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) affecting the performance of high-voltage power transmission systems are one of the most significant hazards space weather poses on the operability of critical US infrastructure. The severity of the threat was emphasized, for example, in two recent reports: the National Research Council (NRC) report "Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report" and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) report "HighImpact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System." The NRC and NERC reports demonstrated the important national security dimension of space weather and GIC and called for comprehensive actions to forecast and mitigate the hazard. In this paper we will give a brief overview of space weather storms and accompanying geomagnetic storm events that lead to GIC. We will also review the fundamental principles of how GIC can impact the power transmission systems. Space weather has been a subject of great scientific advances that have changed the wonder of the past to a quantitative field of physics with true predictive power of today. NASA's Solar Shield system aimed at forecasting of GIC in the North American high-voltage power transmission system can be considered as one of the ultimate fruits of those advances. We will review the fundamental principles of the Solar Shield system and provide our view of the way forward in the science of GIC.

  13. Sensitivity of Short-Term Weather Forecasts to Assimilated AIRS Data: Implications for NPOESS Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zavodsky, Bradley; McCarty, Will; Chou, Shih-Hung; Jedlovec, Gary

    2009-01-01

    The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is acting as a heritage and risk reduction instrument for the Cross-track lnfrared Sounder (CrIS) to be flown aboard the NPP and NPOESS satellites. The hyperspectral nature of AIRS and CrIS provides high-quality soundings that, along with their asynoptic observation time over North America, make them attractive sources to fill the spatial and temporal data voids in upper air temperature and moisture measurements for use in data assimilation and numerical weather prediction. Observations from AlRS can be assimilated either as direct radiances or retrieved thermodynamic profiles, and the Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center has used both data types to improve short-term (0-48h), regional forecasts. The purpose of this paper is to share SPORT'S experiences using AlRS radiances and retrieved profiles in regional data assimilation activities by showing that proper handling of issues-including cloud contamination and land emissivity characterization-are necessary to produce optimal analyses and forecasts.

  14. Improving Weather Research and Forecasting Model Initial Conditions via Surface Pressure Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-09-01

    ARL‐TR‐7447 ● SEP 2015          US Army Research Laboratory      Improving  Weather  Research and Forecasting  Model Initial Conditions via... Weather  Research and Forecasting  Model Initial Conditions via Surface Pressure  Analysis     by Brian P Reen   Computational and Information Sciences...Improving Weather Research and Forecasting Model Initial Conditions via Surface Pressure Analysis 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER  5b. GRANT NUMBER  5c. PROGRAM

  15. Application of the NASA A-Train to Evaluate Clouds Simulated by the Weather Research and Forecast Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molthan, Andrew L.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Lapenta, William M.

    2008-01-01

    The CloudSat Mission, part of the NASA A-Train, is providing the first global survey of cloud profiles and cloud physical properties, observing seasonal and geographical variations that are pertinent to evaluating the way clouds are parameterized in weather and climate forecast models. CloudSat measures the vertical structure of clouds and precipitation from space through the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR), a 94 GHz nadir-looking radar measuring the power backscattered by clouds as a function of distance from the radar. One of the goals of the CloudSat mission is to evaluate the representation of clouds in forecast models, thereby contributing to improved predictions of weather, climate and the cloud-climate feedback problem. This paper highlights potential limitations in cloud microphysical schemes currently employed in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) modeling system. The horizontal and vertical structure of explicitly simulated cloud fields produced by the WRF model at 4-km resolution are being evaluated using CloudSat observations in concert with products derived from MODIS and AIRS. A radiative transfer model is used to produce simulated profiles of radar reflectivity given WRF input profiles of hydrometeor mixing ratios and ambient atmospheric conditions. The preliminary results presented in the paper will compare simulated and observed reflectivity fields corresponding to horizontal and vertical cloud structures associated with midlatitude cyclone events.

  16. Tethered Satellites as an Enabling Platform for Operational Space Weather Monitoring Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gilchrist, Brian E.; Krause, Linda Habash; Gallagher, Dennis Lee; Bilen, Sven Gunnar; Fuhrhop, Keith; Hoegy, Walt R.; Inderesan, Rohini; Johnson, Charles; Owens, Jerry Keith; Powers, Joseph; Voronka, Nestor; Williams, Scott

    2013-01-01

    Tethered satellites offer the potential to be an important enabling technology to support operational space weather monitoring systems. Space weather "nowcasting" and forecasting models rely on assimilation of near-real-time (NRT) space environment data to provide warnings for storm events and deleterious effects on the global societal infrastructure. Typically, these models are initialized by a climatological model to provide "most probable distributions" of environmental parameters as a function of time and space. The process of NRT data assimilation gently pulls the climate model closer toward the observed state (e.g., via Kalman smoothing) for nowcasting, and forecasting is achieved through a set of iterative semi-empirical physics-based forward-prediction calculations. Many challenges are associated with the development of an operational system, from the top-level architecture (e.g., the required space weather observatories to meet the spatial and temporal requirements of these models) down to the individual instruments capable of making the NRT measurements. This study focuses on the latter challenge: we present some examples of how tethered satellites (from 100s of m to 20 km) are uniquely suited to address certain shortfalls in our ability to measure critical environmental parameters necessary to drive these space weather models. Examples include long baseline electric field measurements, magnetized ionospheric conductivity measurements, and the ability to separate temporal from spatial irregularities in environmental parameters. Tethered satellite functional requirements are presented for two examples of space environment observables.

  17. Integration of space weather into space situational awareness

    SciTech Connect

    Reeves, Geoffrey D

    2010-11-09

    Rapid assessment of space weather effects on satellites is a critical step in anomaly resolution and satellite threat assessment. That step, however, is often hindered by a number of factors including timely collection and delivery of space weather data and the inherent com plexity of space weather information. As part of a larger, integrated space situational awareness program, Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed prototype operational space weather tools that run in real time and present operators with customized, user-specific information. The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) focuses on the penetrating radiation environment from natural or nuclear-produced radiation belts. The penetrating radiation environment is highly dynamic and highly orbit-dependent. Operators often must rely only on line plots of 2 MeV electron flux from the NOAA geosynchronous GOES satellites which is then assumed to be representative of the environment at the satellite of interest. DREAM uses data assimilation to produce a global, real-time, energy dependent specification. User tools are built around a distributed service oriented architecture (SOA) which will allow operators to select any satellite from the space catalog and examine the environment for that specific satellite and time of interest. Depending on the application operators may need to examine instantaneous dose rates and/or dose accumulated over various lengths of time. Further, different energy thresholds can be selected depending on the shielding on the satellite or instrument of interest. In order to rapidly assess the probability that space weather was the cause of anomalous operations, the current conditions can be compared against the historical distribution of radiation levels for that orbit. In the simplest operation a user would select a satellite and time of interest and immediately see if the environmental conditions were typical, elevated, or extreme based on how often those

  18. Weather forecasts, users' economic expenses and decision strategies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carter, G. M.

    1972-01-01

    Differing decision models and operational characteristics affecting the economic expenses (i.e., the costs of protection and losses suffered if no protective measures have been taken) associated with the use of predictive weather information have been examined.

  19. Weather Regimes: The Challenge in Extended-Range Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinhold, Brian

    1987-01-01

    A hypothesis to explain the low-frequency (10- to 90-day) variance of the mid-latitude atmosphere is presented. In this hypothesis it is proposed that the planetary-scale waves forced by topography or other zonal inhomogeneities and the day-to-day weather disturbances (synoptic scales) influence each other to generate weather regimes. These quasi-stable flow configurations are responsible for short-range climate anomalies such as droughts, heat waves, deep freezes, and excessive precipitation, as the weather-producing disturbances are organized into storm tracks. Onset and disruption of the weather regimes may be induced by the anomalous development of perhaps a single cyclonic disturbance, which can throw the quasi equilibrium out of balance. Thus, rapid changes in flow regimes can occur almost at random. The development and transition of weather regimes may then be purely internal (that is, depending only upon the properties of the fluid motions themselves) to the atmospheric dynamics. This internal quality suggests that the chaotic, abrupt short-range climatic behavior of the mid-latitudes is a natural behavior of the system that requires no assistance from the outside. The weather regime concept presents a different view of the extended-range atmospheric behavior than the stimulus-response model, such as the atmospheric response to the El Nino.

  20. Growing Diversity in Space Weather and Climate Change Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, L. P.; Ng, C.; Marchese, P.; Austin, S.; Frost, J.; Cheung, T. D.; Robbins, I.; Carlson, B. E.; Steiner, J. C.; Tremberger, G.; Paglione, T.; Damas, C.; Howard, A.; Scalzo, F.

    2013-12-01

    Space Weather and Global Climate Impacts are critical items on the present national and international science agendas. Understanding and forecasting solar activity is increasingly important for manned space flight, unmanned missions (including communications satellites, satellites that monitor the space and earth environment), and regional power grids. The ability to predict the effects of forcings and feedback mechanisms on global and local climate is critical to survival of the inhabitants of planet Earth. It is therefore important to motivate students to continue their studies via advanced degrees and pursue careers related to these areas. This CUNY-based initiative, supported by NASA and NSF, provided undergraduate research experience for more than 70 students in topics ranging from urban impacts of global climate change to magnetic rope structure, solar flares and CMEs. Other research topics included investigations of the ionosphere using a CubeSat, stratospheric aerosols in Jupiter's atmosphere, and ocean climate modeling. Mentors for the primarily summer research experiences included CUNY faculty, GISS and GSFC scientists. Students were recruited from CUNY colleges as well as other colleges including Spelman, Cornell, Rutgers and SUNY colleges. Fifty-eight percent of the undergraduate students were under-represented minorities and thirty-four percent were female. Many of the research teams included high school teachers and students as well as graduate students. Supporting workshops for students included data analysis and visualization tools, space weather, planetary energy balance and BalloonSats. The project is supported by NASA awards NNX10AE72G and NNX09AL77G, and NSF REU Site award 0851932.

  1. Current problems in communication from the weather forecast in the prevention of hydraulic and hydrogeological risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fazzini, Massimiliano; Vaccaro, Carmela

    2014-05-01

    The Italian territory is one of the most fragile hydraulic and hydro geologic of the world, due to its complexity physiographic, lithological and above meteo-climatic too. Moreover, In recent years, the unhappy urbanization, the abandonment of mountain areas and countryside have fostered hydro geological instability, ever more devastating, in relation to the extremes of meteorological events. After the dramatic floods and landscapes of the last 24 months - in which more than 50 people died - it is actually open a public debate on the issues related to prevention, forecasting and management of hydro-meteorological risk. Aim of the correct weather forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales is to avoid or minimize the potential occurrence of damage or human losses resulting from the increasingly of frequent extreme weather events. In Italy, there are two major complex problems that do not allow for effective dissemination of the correct weather forecasting. First, the absence of a national meteorological service - which can ensure the quality of information. In this regard, it is at an advanced stage the establishment of a unified national weather service - formed by technicians to national and regional civil protection and the Meteorological Service of the Air Force, which will ensure the quality of the prediction, especially through exclusive processing of national and local weather forecasting and hydro geological weather alert. At present, however, this lack favors the increasing diffusion of meteorological sites more or less professional - often totally not "ethical" - which, at different spatial scales, tend to amplify the signals from the weather prediction models, describing them the users of the web such as exceptional or rare phenomena and often causing unjustified alarmism. This behavior is almost always aimed at the desire of give a forecast before other sites and therefore looking for new commercial sponsors, with easy profits. On the other hand

  2. The Application of Synoptic Weather Forecasting Rules to Selected Weather Situations in the United States.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kohler, Fred E.

    The document describes the use of weather maps and data in teaching introductory college courses in synoptic meteorology. Students examine weather changes at three-hour intervals from data obtained from the "Monthly Summary of Local Climatological Data." Weather variables in the local summary include sky cover, air temperature, dew point, relative…

  3. Space Weather Research at the National Science Foundation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moretto, T.

    2015-12-01

    There is growing recognition that the space environment can have substantial, deleterious, impacts on society. Consequently, research enabling specification and forecasting of hazardous space effects has become of great importance and urgency. This research requires studying the entire Sun-Earth system to understand the coupling of regions all the way from the source of disturbances in the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The traditional, region-based structure of research programs in Solar and Space physics is ill suited to fully support the change in research directions that the problem of space weather dictates. On the observational side, dense, distributed networks of observations are required to capture the full large-scale dynamics of the space environment. However, the cost of implementing these is typically prohibitive, especially for measurements in space. Thus, by necessity, the implementation of such new capabilities needs to build on creative and unconventional solutions. A particularly powerful idea is the utilization of new developments in data engineering and informatics research (big data). These new technologies make it possible to build systems that can collect and process huge amounts of noisy and inaccurate data and extract from them useful information. The shift in emphasis towards system level science for geospace also necessitates the development of large-scale and multi-scale models. The development of large-scale models capable of capturing the global dynamics of the Earth's space environment requires investment in research team efforts that go beyond what can typically be funded under the traditional grants programs. This calls for effective interdisciplinary collaboration and efficient leveraging of resources both nationally and internationally. This presentation will provide an overview of current and planned initiatives, programs, and activities at the National Science Foundation pertaining to space weathe research.

  4. Space Weather Status for Exploration Radiation Protection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fry, Dan J.; Lee, Kerry; Zapp, Neal; Barzilla, Janet; Dunegan, Audrey; Johnson, Steve; Stoffle, Nicholas

    2011-01-01

    Management of crew exposure to radiation is a major concern for manned spaceflight and will be even more important for the modern concept of longer-duration exploration. The inherent protection afforded to astronauts by the magnetic field of the Earth in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) makes operations on the space shuttle or space station very different from operations during an exploration mission. In order to experience significant radiation-derived Loss of Mission (LOM) or Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for LEO operations, one is almost driven to dictate extreme duration or to dictate an extreme sequence of solar activity. Outside of the geo-magnetosphere, however, this scenario changes dramatically. Exposures to the same event on the ISS and in free space, for example, may differ by orders of magnitude. This change in magnitude, coupled with the logistical constraints present in implementing any practical operational mitigation make situational awareness with regard to space weather a limiting factor for the ability to conduct exploration operations. We present a current status of developing operational concepts for manned exploration and expectations for asset viability and available predictive and characterization toolsets.

  5. Services available at the Brazilian Study and Monitoring of Space Weather (Embrace) Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dal Lago, A.; Cecatto, J. R.; Costa, J. E. R.; Da Silva, L. A.; Rockenbach, M.; Braga, C. R.; Mendonca, R. R. S.; Mendes, O., Jr.; Koga, D.; Alves, L. R.; Becker-Guedes, F.; Wrasse, C. M.; Takahashi, H.; Banik de Padua, M.; De Nardin, C. M.

    2015-12-01

    Since 2008, Brazilian government has been supporting a Space Weather Program at the National Institute for Space Research (INPE). The main objective of the "Brazilian Study and Monitoring of Space Weather (Embrace) Program" is to proceed with data collection and maintenance of Space Weather observation, modeling processes of the Sun-Earth on a global and regional scale, provide information in real time and make Space Weather forecast, and provide diagnostics of their effects on different technology systems through the collection of satellite data, surface and computational modeling. Advantage was taken on the long lasting expertise of the local scientific community, specially regarding local phenomena, such as the equatorial ionosphere and effects of the South American Magnetic Anomaly. Since April 2012, weekly briefings are held where scientists discuss and evaluate in a comprehensive manner all the chains of events from the sun, interplanetary space, earth magnetosphere, radiation belts, ionosphere, upper atmosphere, and reaching the effects on ground. One unique aspect of Embrace program is the strong emphasis on ionospheric and upper atmospheric disturbances. Recently, strong focus on radiation belt variability is progressively been included. Another important particularity of this program is the use of cosmic ray observations to develop nowcasting and forecasting of solar wind structures. In this work, we present an overview of activities and contributions related to the EMBRACE Program.

  6. Tethered Satellites as Enabling Platforms for an Operational Space Weather Monitoring System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krause, L. Habash; Gilchrist, B. E.; Bilen, S.; Owens, J.; Voronka, N.; Furhop, K.

    2013-01-01

    Space weather nowcasting and forecasting models require assimilation of near-real time (NRT) space environment data to improve the precision and accuracy of operational products. Typically, these models begin with a climatological model to provide "most probable distributions" of environmental parameters as a function of time and space. The process of NRT data assimilation gently pulls the climate model closer toward the observed state (e.g. via Kalman smoothing) for nowcasting, and forecasting is achieved through a set of iterative physics-based forward-prediction calculations. The issue of required space weather observatories to meet the spatial and temporal requirements of these models is a complex one, and we do not address that with this poster. Instead, we present some examples of how tethered satellites can be used to address the shortfalls in our ability to measure critical environmental parameters necessary to drive these space weather models. Examples include very long baseline electric field measurements, magnetized ionospheric conductivity measurements, and the ability to separate temporal from spatial irregularities in environmental parameters. Tethered satellite functional requirements will be presented for each space weather parameter considered in this study.

  7. Recent examples of mesoscale numerical forecasts of severe weather events along the east coast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kocin, P. J.; Uccellini, L. W.; Zack, J. W.; Kaplan, M. L.

    1984-01-01

    Mesoscale numerical forecasts utilizing the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) are documented for two East Coast severe weather events. The two events are the thunderstorm and heavy snow bursts in the Washington, D.C. - Baltimore, MD region on 8 March 1984 and the devastating tornado outbreak across North and South Carolina on 28 March 1984. The forecasts are presented to demonstrate the ability of the model to simulate dynamical interactions and diabatic processes and to note some of the problems encountered when using mesoscale models for day-to-day forecasting.

  8. Use of medium-range numerical weather prediction model output to produce forecasts of streamflow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, M.P.; Hay, L.E.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines an archive containing over 40 years of 8-day atmospheric forecasts over the contiguous United States from the NCEP reanalysis project to assess the possibilities for using medium-range numerical weather prediction model output for predictions of streamflow. This analysis shows the biases in the NCEP forecasts to be quite extreme. In many regions, systematic precipitation biases exceed 100% of the mean, with temperature biases exceeding 3??C. In some locations, biases are even higher. The accuracy of NCEP precipitation and 2-m maximum temperature forecasts is computed by interpolating the NCEP model output for each forecast day to the location of each station in the NWS cooperative network and computing the correlation with station observations. Results show that the accuracy of the NCEP forecasts is rather low in many areas of the country. Most apparent is the generally low skill in precipitation forecasts (particularly in July) and low skill in temperature forecasts in the western United States, the eastern seaboard, and the southern tier of states. These results outline a clear need for additional processing of the NCEP Medium-Range Forecast Model (MRF) output before it is used for hydrologic predictions. Techniques of model output statistics (MOS) are used in this paper to downscale the NCEP forecasts to station locations. Forecasted atmospheric variables (e.g., total column precipitable water, 2-m air temperature) are used as predictors in a forward screening multiple linear regression model to improve forecasts of precipitation and temperature for stations in the National Weather Service cooperative network. This procedure effectively removes all systematic biases in the raw NCEP precipitation and temperature forecasts. MOS guidance also results in substantial improvements in the accuracy of maximum and minimum temperature forecasts throughout the country. For precipitation, forecast improvements were less impressive. MOS guidance increases

  9. Evaluation of Nocturnal Temperature Forecasts Provided by the Weather Research and Forecast Model for Different Stability Regimes and Terrain Characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Battisti, Adriano; Acevedo, Otávio C.; Costa, Felipe D.; Puhales, Franciano S.; Anabor, Vagner; Degrazia, Gervásio A.

    2017-03-01

    The quality of nocturnal temperature forecasts made by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) numerical model is evaluated. The model was run for all July 2012 nights, and temperature fields compared to hourly observations made at 26 weather stations in southern Brazil. Four different planetary boundary-layer (PBL) schemes are considered: Bougeault-Lacarrere (BouLac), Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination (QNSE), Yonsei University (YSU) and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ). Additional simulations to assess the role of higher horizontal and vertical resolutions were performed using the MYJ scheme. All schemes, except BouLac, underestimated the 2-m temperature, and in all cases the temperature bias is dependent on wind speed. At high wind speeds, all schemes exhibit a cold bias, which is greater for those that yield lower nocturnal surface-layer turbulent intensity. The elevation difference between each station and the model nearest grid point H_{it{station}} -H_{it{gridpoint}} is highly correlated with the temperature simulation error. We found that a consistent cold bias is restricted to conditions with low-level clouds. We concluded that one possible means of improving nocturnal temperature forecast is to use parametrization schemes that allow for higher turbulent intensity in near-neutral conditions. The results indicate that this improvement would partially counteract the misrepresentation of the low-level cloud cover. In most stable cases, a post-processing algorithm based on terrain characteristics may improve the forecasts.

  10. Evaluation of Nocturnal Temperature Forecasts Provided by the Weather Research and Forecast Model for Different Stability Regimes and Terrain Characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Battisti, Adriano; Acevedo, Otávio C.; Costa, Felipe D.; Puhales, Franciano S.; Anabor, Vagner; Degrazia, Gervásio A.

    2016-10-01

    The quality of nocturnal temperature forecasts made by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) numerical model is evaluated. The model was run for all July 2012 nights, and temperature fields compared to hourly observations made at 26 weather stations in southern Brazil. Four different planetary boundary-layer (PBL) schemes are considered: Bougeault-Lacarrere (BouLac), Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination (QNSE), Yonsei University (YSU) and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ). Additional simulations to assess the role of higher horizontal and vertical resolutions were performed using the MYJ scheme. All schemes, except BouLac, underestimated the 2-m temperature, and in all cases the temperature bias is dependent on wind speed. At high wind speeds, all schemes exhibit a cold bias, which is greater for those that yield lower nocturnal surface-layer turbulent intensity. The elevation difference between each station and the model nearest grid point H_{station} -H_{gridpoint} is highly correlated with the temperature simulation error. We found that a consistent cold bias is restricted to conditions with low-level clouds. We concluded that one possible means of improving nocturnal temperature forecast is to use parametrization schemes that allow for higher turbulent intensity in near-neutral conditions. The results indicate that this improvement would partially counteract the misrepresentation of the low-level cloud cover. In most stable cases, a post-processing algorithm based on terrain characteristics may improve the forecasts.

  11. Incremental laser space weathering of Allende reveals non-lunar like space weathering effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillis-Davis, Jeffrey J.; Lucey, Paul G.; Bradley, John P.; Ishii, Hope A.; Kaluna, Heather M.; Misra, Anumpam; Connolly, Harold C.

    2017-04-01

    We report findings from a series of laser-simulated space weathering experiments on Allende, a CV3 carbonaceous chondrite. The purpose of these experiments is to understand how spectra of anhydrous C-complex asteroids might vary as a function of micrometeorite bombardment. Four 0.5-gram aliquots of powdered, unpacked Allende meteorite were incrementally laser weathered with 30 mJ pulses while under vacuum. Radiative transfer modeling of the spectra and Scanning Transmission Electron Microscope (STEM) analyses of the samples show lunar-like similarities and differences in response to laser-simulated space weathering. For instance, laser weathered Allende exhibited lunar-like spectral changes. The overall spectra from visible to near infrared (Vis-NIR) redden and darken, and characteristic absorption bands weaken as a function of laser exposure. Unlike lunar weathering, however, the continuum slope between 450-550 nm does not vary monotonically with laser irradiation. Initially, spectra in this region redden with laser irradiation; then, the visible continua become less red and eventually spectrally bluer. STEM analyses of less mature samples confirm submicroscopic iron metal (SMFe) and micron sized sulfides. More mature samples reveal increased dispersal of Fe-Ni sulfides by the laser, which we infer to be the cause for the non-lunar-like changes in spectral behavior. Spectra of laser weathered Allende are a reasonable match to T- or possibly K-type asteroids; though the spectral match with a parent body is not exact. The key take away is, laser weathered Allende looks spectrally different (i.e., darker, and redder or bluer depending on the wavelength region) than its unweathered spectrum. Consequently, connecting meteorites to asteroids using unweathered spectra of meteorites would result in a different parent body than one matched on the basis of weathered spectra. Further, spectra for these laser weathering experiments may provide an explanation for

  12. Cosmic Ray Observatories for Space Weather Studies.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González, Xavier

    2016-07-01

    The Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX) was created in October 2014. Some observatories measure data for the service at different frequencies and particles. Two cosmic ray observatories detect the particle variations attributed to solar emissions, and are an important source of information for the SCiESMEX. The Mexico City Cosmic Ray Observatory consists of a neutron monitor (6-NM-64) and a muon telescope, that detect the hadronic and hard component of the secondary cosmic rays in the atmosphere. It has been in continous operation since 1990. The Sierra Negra Cosmic Ray Observatory consists of a solar neutron telescope and the scintillator cosmic ray telescope. These telescopes can detect the neutrons, generated in solar flares and the hadronic and hard components of the secondary cosmic rays. It has been in continous operation since 2004. We present the two observatories and the capability to detect variations in the cosmic rays, generated by the emissions of the solar activity.

  13. Improvements in the Space Weather Modeling Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ridley, A. J.; Liemohn, M.; Dezeeuw, D.; Ilie, R.; Sokolov, I.; Toth, G.; Yu, Y.

    2008-12-01

    The magnetosphere within the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) has been represented by a global magnetosphere model (BATSRUS), an inner magnetosphere model (the Rice Convection Model) and a model of the ionospheric electrodynamics. We present significant improvements in the SWMF: (1) We have implemented a spherical grid within BATSRUS and have utilized this for modeling the magnetosphere; (2) We have significantly improved the physics of the auroral oval within the ionospheric electrodynamics code, modeling a self-consistent diffuse and discrete auroral oval; (3) We utilize the multifluid MHD code within BATSRUS to allow for more accurate specification and differentiation of the density within the magnetosphere; and (4) we have incorporated the Hot Electron and Ion Drift Integrator (HEIDI) ring current code within the SWMF. We will present these improvements and show the quantitative differences within the model results when comparing to a suite of measurements for a number of different intervals.

  14. Space weathering trends among carbonaceous asteroids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaluna, H. M.; Masiero, J. R.; Meech, K. J.

    2016-01-01

    We present visible spectroscopic and albedo data of the 2.3 Gyr old Themis family and the <10 Myr old Beagle sub-family. The slope and albedo variations between these two families indicate C-complex asteroids become redder and darker in response to space weathering. Our observations of Themis family members confirm previously observed trends where phyllosilicate absorption features are less common among small diameter objects. Similar trends in the albedos of large (>15 km) and small (⩽15 km) Themis members suggest these phyllosilicate feature and albedo trends result from regolith variations as a function of diameter. Observations of the Beagle asteroids show a small, but notable fraction of members with phyllosilicate features. The presence of phyllosilicates and the dynamical association of the main-belt comet 133P/Elst-Pizarro with the Beagle family imply the Beagle parent body was a heterogenous mixture of ice and aqueously altered minerals.

  15. Space Weather Effects on Aircraft Navigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stanley, J. C.; Cade, W. B.

    2012-12-01

    Many aircraft today use satellites for GPS navigation, arrival and departure to and from airspaces, and for "shooting" non-precision and precision Instrument Approaches into airports. Also in development is an Air Traffic Control system based on satellite technology that seeks to modernize current air traffic control and improve safety, eventually phasing out radar (though not yet in the very near future). Due to the general, commercial, and military aviation fields all becoming more and more reliant on satellite and GPS technologies, the effects of space weather events on these systems is of paramount concern to militaries, airlines, private pilots, and other aviation operators. In this study we analyze data from airlines and other resources regarding effects on satellite and GPS systems, which is crucial to the conduct of safe flight operations now and improving systems for future and continued use.

  16. Probabilistic forecasting of extreme weather events based on extreme value theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van De Vyver, Hans; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert

    2016-04-01

    Extreme events in weather and climate such as high wind gusts, heavy precipitation or extreme temperatures are commonly associated with high impacts on both environment and society. Forecasting extreme weather events is difficult, and very high-resolution models are needed to describe explicitly extreme weather phenomena. A prediction system for such events should therefore preferably be probabilistic in nature. Probabilistic forecasts and state estimations are nowadays common in the numerical weather prediction community. In this work, we develop a new probabilistic framework based on extreme value theory that aims to provide early warnings up to several days in advance. We consider the combined events when an observation variable Y (for instance wind speed) exceeds a high threshold y and its corresponding deterministic forecasts X also exceeds a high forecast threshold y. More specifically two problems are addressed:} We consider pairs (X,Y) of extreme events where X represents a deterministic forecast, and Y the observation variable (for instance wind speed). More specifically two problems are addressed: Given a high forecast X=x_0, what is the probability that Y>y? In other words: provide inference on the conditional probability: [ Pr{Y>y|X=x_0}. ] Given a probabilistic model for Problem 1, what is the impact on the verification analysis of extreme events. These problems can be solved with bivariate extremes (Coles, 2001), and the verification analysis in (Ferro, 2007). We apply the Ramos and Ledford (2009) parametric model for bivariate tail estimation of the pair (X,Y). The model accommodates different types of extremal dependence and asymmetry within a parsimonious representation. Results are presented using the ensemble reforecast system of the European Centre of Weather Forecasts (Hagedorn, 2008). Coles, S. (2001) An Introduction to Statistical modelling of Extreme Values. Springer-Verlag.Ferro, C.A.T. (2007) A probability model for verifying deterministic

  17. Improving Atmospheric Corrections to InSAR Path Delays Using Operational Weather Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fishbein, E.; Fielding, E. J.; Moore, A. W.; von Allmen, P. A.; Xing, Z.; Li, Z.; Pan, L.

    2010-12-01

    Using InSAR to measure surface displacements immediately following earthquakes is difficult. Tropospheric radar propagation delays can be a large source of error, especially for moderate-sized events at low altitudes and latitudes, and it cannot be reduced by averaging several overpasses. We evaluate tropospheric delays from several operational global and regional weather forecast models and compare these with delays from fixed GPS receivers and Envisat’s InSAR. Although dry airmass (surface pressure) and liquid water burden both contribute to the delay, water vapor burden dominates the delay. Accurate representations of near surface atmospheric water vapor are the single most important criteria for using one weather model over another. Several weather model characteristics are key for good estimates of atmospheric water vapor distribution. One is modeling of water vapor transport, which is improved by increased spatial resolution and topography. A second aspect is accurate inputs of water vapor sources and sinks. These will improve with better assimilations of satellite and in situ observations in weather forecast models. We present an estimate of the model-dependent error by deriving delays from several weather models, using identical processing algorithms. In this study we use products from the 0.125° ECMWF global deterministic forecast, the 1° NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) and the 12km NCEP North America Mesoscale (NAM) model. Additionally, delays from weather forecasts must be interpolated to the higher spatial resolution of InSAR imagery. We have evaluated delays using simple interpolation and contour-following adjustments and have compare these to the GFS observations sorted by distance from the model grid points and amount of elevation correction. We are developing Online Services for Correcting Atmosphere in Radar (OSCAR), which should aid rapid use of InSAR measurements. These analyses will be used to optimize the correction algorithms within

  18. Satellite contributions to convective scale weather analysis and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Purdom, James F. W.

    1986-01-01

    Severe weather phenomena which are amenable to remote sensing by satellite instruments and having resolution fine enough to discern mesoscale features are described. GOES satellites acquire imagery with 1 km resolution in the visible band and 8 km at IR wavelengths. Animation of the images allows tracking the evolution and motions of clouds, which are the prime indicators of convective activity. Sample satellite imagery of sea, lake and river breezes which reveal differential heating processes, the effect of early morning cloud cover, thunderstorm outflow processes, and mesoscale convective systems are provided. Techniques for analyzing the satellite data to predict the onset of severe weather are discussed.

  19. Chapman Conference accents success of space weather program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siscoe, George; Song, Paul

    Over 160 scientists and students from more than a dozen countries attended the Chapman Conference on Space Weather: Progress and Challenges in Research and Applications to hear 70 talks and peruse 150 posters documenting achievements made during the first 5 years of the National Space Weather Program (NSWP).Since the advent of the NSWR, space weather research has expanded from a semi-private activity, pursued mostly to address operational concerns of industries and military branches affected by space weather, to a broad subject pursued in part for its capacity to integrate research across the divisions of the SPA community.

  20. Use of medium-range weather forecasts for drought mitigation and adaptation under a Mediterranean area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lahlou, Ouiam; Imani, Yasmina; Bennasser Alaoui, Si; Dutra, Emanuel; DiGiuseppe, Francesca; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik

    2014-05-01

    Use of medium-range weather forecasts for drought mitigation and adaptation under a Mediterranean area Authors: Ouiam Lahlou1, Yasmina Imani1, Si Bennasser Alaoui1, Emmanuel Dutra 2, Francesca Di Guiseppe2, Florian Pappenberger2, Fredrik Wetterhall2 1: Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II (IAV Hassan II) 2: European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) The main pillar of economic development in Morocco is the agricultural sector employing 40% of the active workforce. Agriculture is still mainly dominated by rainfed agriculture which is vulnerable to an increasing frequency and severity of drought events. In rainfed agriculture, there are few interventions possible once crops are planted. Medium to long range weather forecasts could therefore provide valid information for crop selection and sowing time at the onset of the yield season and later to plan mitigation measures during dry-spell episodes. More than 600 daily forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecasting system were analyzed in terms of probabilistic skills scores. Results show that, while daily and weekly accumulated precipitation are poorly predicted there is good skill in the forecast of occurrence and extent of dry periods. The availability of this information to decision makers in the agricultural sector would mean moving from a reactive drought management plan to a proactive one. This is very important, especially for the remote areas where often the needed help comes late. A simulation case-study involving farmers who were made aware of the availability of forecasts for the next seasons, show that medium-range forecasts will allow i) governments and relief agencies to position themselves for more effective and cost-efficient drought interventions, ii) producers to be more aware of their production options and insure their payment rate, iii) Herders, to cope with higher food costs for their cattle iv) farmers to better plan

  1. Evaluating National Weather Service Seasonal Forecast Products in Reservoir Operation Case Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nielson, A.; Guihan, R.; Polebistki, A.; Palmer, R. N.; Werner, K.; Wood, A. W.

    2014-12-01

    Forecasts of future weather and streamflow can provide valuable information for reservoir operations and water management. A challenge confronting reservoir operators today is how to incorporate both climate and streamflow products into their operations and which of these forecast products are most informative and useful for optimized water management. This study incorporates several reforecast products provided by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) which allows a complete retrospective analysis of climate forecasts, resulting in an evaluation of each product's skill in the context of water resources management. The accuracy and value of forecasts generated from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) are compared to the accuracy and value of using an Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP) approach. Using the CFSv2 may offer more insight when responding to climate driven extremes than the ESP approach because the CFSv2 incorporates a fully coupled climate model into its forecasts rather than using all of the historic climate record as being equally probable. The role of forecast updating frequency will also be explored. Decision support systems (DSS) for both Salt Lake City Parley's System and the Snohomish County Public Utility Department's (SnoPUD) Jackson project will be used to illustrate the utility of forecasts. Both DSS include a coupled simulation and optimization model that will incorporate system constraints, operating policies, and environmental flow requirements. To determine the value of the reforecast products, performance metrics meaningful to the managers of each system are to be identified and quantified. Without such metrics and awareness of seasonal operational nuances, it is difficult to identify forecast improvements in meaningful ways. These metrics of system performance are compared using the different forecast products to evaluate the potential benefits of using CFSv2 seasonal forecasts in systems decision making.

  2. Navy Tactical Applications Guide. Volume 5. Part 1. Indian Ocean (Red Sea/Persian Gulf) Weather Analysis and Forecast Applications

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-06-01

    NO. Navy Tactical Applications Guide. Volume 5. Part 1 Indian Ocean (Red Sea/Persian Gulf) Weather Analysis and Forecast Applications 7...tldt It ntctf try mid Idtnlltr by block numOtr) Meteorological Satellite Systems Analysis and Forecast Applications Indian Ocean Northeast Monsoon...by block numbtr) Case studies describing regional environmental analysis and forecast applications based on satellite data and conventional

  3. Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route.

    PubMed

    Inoue, Jun; Yamazaki, Akira; Ono, Jun; Dethloff, Klaus; Maturilli, Marion; Neuber, Roland; Edwards, Patti; Yamaguchi, Hajime

    2015-11-20

    During ice-free periods, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be an attractive shipping route. The decline in Arctic sea-ice extent, however, could be associated with an increase in the frequency of the causes of severe weather phenomena, and high wind-driven waves and the advection of sea ice could make ship navigation along the NSR difficult. Accurate forecasts of weather and sea ice are desirable for safe navigation, but large uncertainties exist in current forecasts, partly owing to the sparse observational network over the Arctic Ocean. Here, we show that the incorporation of additional Arctic observations improves the initial analysis and enhances the skill of weather and sea-ice forecasts, the application of which has socioeconomic benefits. Comparison of 63-member ensemble atmospheric forecasts, using different initial data sets, revealed that additional Arctic radiosonde observations were useful for predicting a persistent strong wind event. The sea-ice forecast, initialised by the wind fields that included the effects of the observations, skilfully predicted rapid wind-driven sea-ice advection along the NSR.

  4. Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route

    PubMed Central

    Inoue, Jun; Yamazaki, Akira; Ono, Jun; Dethloff, Klaus; Maturilli, Marion; Neuber, Roland; Edwards, Patti; Yamaguchi, Hajime

    2015-01-01

    During ice-free periods, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be an attractive shipping route. The decline in Arctic sea-ice extent, however, could be associated with an increase in the frequency of the causes of severe weather phenomena, and high wind-driven waves and the advection of sea ice could make ship navigation along the NSR difficult. Accurate forecasts of weather and sea ice are desirable for safe navigation, but large uncertainties exist in current forecasts, partly owing to the sparse observational network over the Arctic Ocean. Here, we show that the incorporation of additional Arctic observations improves the initial analysis and enhances the skill of weather and sea-ice forecasts, the application of which has socioeconomic benefits. Comparison of 63-member ensemble atmospheric forecasts, using different initial data sets, revealed that additional Arctic radiosonde observations were useful for predicting a persistent strong wind event. The sea-ice forecast, initialised by the wind fields that included the effects of the observations, skilfully predicted rapid wind-driven sea-ice advection along the NSR. PMID:26585690

  5. The Economic Impact of Space Weather: Where Do We Stand?

    PubMed

    Eastwood, J P; Biffis, E; Hapgood, M A; Green, L; Bisi, M M; Bentley, R D; Wicks, R; McKinnell, L-A; Gibbs, M; Burnett, C

    2017-02-01

    Space weather describes the way in which the Sun, and conditions in space more generally, impact human activity and technology both in space and on the ground. It is now well understood that space weather represents a significant threat to infrastructure resilience, and is a source of risk that is wide-ranging in its impact and the pathways by which this impact may occur. Although space weather is growing rapidly as a field, work rigorously assessing the overall economic cost of space weather appears to be in its infancy. Here, we provide an initial literature review to gather and assess the quality of any published assessments of space weather impacts and socioeconomic studies. Generally speaking, there is a good volume of scientific peer-reviewed literature detailing the likelihood and statistics of different types of space weather phenomena. These phenomena all typically exhibit "power-law" behavior in their severity. The literature on documented impacts is not as extensive, with many case studies, but few statistical studies. The literature on the economic impacts of space weather is rather sparse and not as well developed when compared to the other sections, most probably due to the somewhat limited data that are available from end-users. The major risk is attached to power distribution systems and there is disagreement as to the severity of the technological footprint. This strongly controls the economic impact. Consequently, urgent work is required to better quantify the risk of future space weather events.

  6. Future L5 Missions for Solar Physics and Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Auchere, Frederic; Gopalswamy, Nat

    Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIR) are the sources of intense space weather in the heliosphere. Most of the current knowledge on CMEs accumulated over the past few decades has been derived from observations made from the Sun-Earth line, which is not the ideal vantage point to observe Earth-affecting CMEs (Gopalswamy et al., 2011a,b). In this paper, the advantages of remote-sensing and in-situ observations from the Sun-Earth L5 point are discussed. Locating a mission at Sun-Earth L5 has several key benefits for solar physics and space weather: (1) off the Sun-Earth line view is critical in observing Earth-arriving parts of CMEs, (2) L5 coronagraphic observations can also provide near-Sun space speed of CMEs, which is an important input to models that forecast Earth-arrival time of CMEs, (3) backside and frontside CMEs can be readily distinguished even without inner coronal imagers, (4) preceding CMEs in the path of Earth-affecting CMEs can be identified for a better estimate of the travel time, (5) CIRs reach the L5 point a few days before they arrive at Earth, and hence provide significant lead time before CIR arrival, (6) L5 observations can provide advance knowledge of CME and CIR source regions (coronal holes) rotating to Earth view, and (7) magnetograms obtained from L5 can improve the surface magnetic field distribution used as input to MHD models that predict the background solar wind. The paper also discusses L5 mission concepts that can be achieved in the near future. References Gopalswamy, N., Davila, J. M., St. Cyr, O. C., Sittler, E. C., Auchère, F., Duvall, T. L., Hoeksema, J. T., Maksimovic, M., MacDowall, R. J., Szabo, A., Collier, M. R. (2011a), Earth-Affecting Solar Causes Observatory (EASCO): A potential International Living with a Star Mission from Sun-Earth L5 JASTP 73, 658-663, DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2011.01.013 Gopalswamy, N., Davila, J. M., Auchère, F., Schou, J., Korendyke, C. M. Shih, A., Johnston, J. C

  7. The space-weather enterprise: past, present, and future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siscoe, G.

    2000-09-01

    Space-weather impacts society in diverse ways. Societies' responses have been correspondingly diverse. Taken together these responses constitute a space weather ``enterprise'', which has developed over time and continues to develop. Technological systems that space-weather affects have grown from isolated telegraph systems in the 1840s to ocean and continent-spanning cable communications systems, from a generator electrifying a few city blocks in the 1880s to continent-spanning networks of high-tension lines, from wireless telegraphy in the 1890s to globe-spanning communication by radio and satellites. To have a name for the global totality of technological systems that are vulnerable to space weather, I suggest calling it the cyberelectrosphere. When the cyberelectrosphere was young, scientists who study space weather, engineers who design systems that space weather affects, and operators of such systems - the personnel behind the space-weather enterprise - were relatively isolated. The space-weather enterprise was correspondingly incoherent. Now that the cyberelectrosphere has become pervasive and indispensable to most segments of society, the space weather enterprise has become systematic and coherent. At present it has achieved considerable momentum, but it has barely begun to realize the level of effectiveness to which it can aspire, as evidenced by achievements of a corresponding but more mature enterprise in meteorology, a field which provides useful lessons. The space-weather enterprise will enter a new phase after it matures roughly to where the tropospheric weather enterprise is now. Then it will become indispensable for humankind's further global networking through technology and for humankind's further utilization of and expansion into space.

  8. The Impact of Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profiles on Short-term Weather Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Lapenta, William

    2007-01-01

    The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), represents one of the most advanced spacebased atmospheric sounding systems. The combined AlRS/AMSU system provides radiance measurements used to retrieve temperature profiles with an accuracy of 1 K over 1 km layers under both clear and partly cloudy conditions, while the accuracy of the derived humidity profiles is 15% in 2 km layers. Critical to the successful use of AIRS profiles for weather and climate studies is the use of profile quality indicators and error estimates provided with each profile Aside form monitoring changes in Earth's climate, one of the objectives of AIRS is to provide sounding information of sufficient accuracy such that the assimilation of the new observations, especially in data sparse region, will lead to an improvement in weather forecasts. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate highresolution AIRS profile data in a regional analysis/forecast model. The paper will focus on the impact of AIRS profiles on a rapidly developing east coast storm and will also discuss preliminary results for a 30-day forecast period, simulating a quasi-operation environment. Temperature and moisture profiles were obtained from the prototype version 5.0 EOS science team retrieval algorithm which includes explicit error information for each profile. The error profile information was used to select the highest quality temperature and moisture data for every profile location and pressure level for assimilation into the ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS). The AIRS-enhanced analyses were used as initial fields for the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) system used by the SPORT project for regional weather forecast studies. The ADASWRF system will be run on CONUS domain with an emphasis on the east coast. The preliminary assessment of the impact of the AIRS profiles will focus on quality control issues associated with AIRS

  9. Global Cooperation in the Science of Space Weather

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, Nat

    2011-01-01

    The international space science community had recognized the importance of space weather more than a decade ago, which resulted in a number of international collaborative activities such as the Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System (CAWSES) by SCOSTEP and the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI). The ISWI program is a continuation of the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) program. These programs have brought scientists together to tackle the scientific issues behind space weather. In addition to the vast array of space instruments, ground based instruments have been deployed, which not only filled voids in data coverage, but also inducted young scientists from developing countries into the scientific community. This paper presents a summary of CAWSES and ISWI activities that promote space weather science via complementary approaches in international scientific collaborations. capacity building. and public outreach.

  10. A Peak Wind Probability Forecast Tool for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crawford, Winifred; Roeder, William

    2008-01-01

    This conference abstract describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in east-central Florida. The peak winds are an important forecast element for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a short-range peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violatioas.The tool will include climatologies of the 5-minute mean end peak winds by month, hour, and direction, and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

  11. The potential economic benefits of improvements in weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, J. C.

    1972-01-01

    The study was initiated as a consequence of the increased use of weather satellites, electronic computers and other technological developments which have become a virtual necessity for solving the complex problems of the earth's atmosphere. Neither the economic emphasis, nor the monetary results of the study, are intended to imply their sole use as criteria for making decisions concerning the intrinsic value of technological improvements in meteorology.

  12. Implementation of the Immersed Boundary Method in the Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect

    Lundquist, Katherine Ann

    2006-01-01

    Accurate simulations of atmospheric boundary layer flow are vital for predicting dispersion of contaminant releases, particularly in densely populated urban regions where first responders must react within minutes and the consequences of forecast errors are potentially disastrous. Current mesoscale models do not account for urban effects, and conversely urban scale models do not account for mesoscale weather features or atmospheric physics. The ultimate goal of this research is to develop and implement an immersed boundary method (IBM) along with a surface roughness parameterization into the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. IBM will be used in WRF to represent the complex boundary conditions imposed by urban landscapes, while still including forcing from regional weather patterns and atmospheric physics. This document details preliminary results of this research, including the details of three distinct implementations of the immersed boundary method. Results for the three methods are presented for the case of a rotation influenced neutral atmospheric boundary layer over flat terrain.

  13. The Nature of Reduction in Space Weathering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McKay, D. S.; Allen, C. C.

    1993-07-01

    Space weathering is a broad term that includes a number of complex effects of the exposure of materials to the environment of space. The processes that drive space weathering include micrometeorite impact, radiation from the Sun and cosmic rays, and exposure to the vacuum of space. One of the important effects caused by these processes is the tendency for chemical reduction of oxide and silicate materials (including glasses), with accompanying loss of oxygen and production of reduced metal. Such chemical reduction and accompanying metal production may have an important influence on the chemistry of the outermost volume of individual grains as well as on the optical properties of this material. Hapke [1] discussed five processes that have been suggested for producing submicroscopic iron metal in the lunar soil: (1) shock reduction, (2) heating in a thermal blanket in vacuum, (3) shock heating of solar-wind-impregnated grains, (4) coatings deposited by solar wind sputtering, and (5) coatings deposited by impact vaporization. As noted by Hapke, "Processes (1) and (2) have been refuted by laboratory experiments. Processes (4) and (5) have produced submicroscopic iron metal in laboratory simulations. Although no experiments have been done to simulate process (3), it is widely accepted." We have been performing experimental reduction of simulated and actual lunar materials [2-5] and have shown that, under conditions of exposure to hydrogen at elevated temperatures, reduction of FeO readily occurs in ilmenite and lunar composition glass, and occurs at a slower rate in pyroxene and olivine. Even plagioclase feldspar containing minor FeO is readily reduced with formation of metallic iron blebs on surfaces [4]. A comparison of natural lunar samples to hydrogen-reduced samples or simulants in which we are searching for reduction evidence in various soil phases is underway. Preliminary data for mature soils show, in agreement with earlier results, that reduced iron produced in

  14. Integrating weather and climate predictions for seamless hydrologic ensemble forecasting: A case study in the Yalong River basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, Aizhong; Deng, Xiaoxue; Ma, Feng; Duan, Qingyun; Zhou, Zheng; Du, Chao

    2017-04-01

    Despite the tremendous improvement made in numerical weather and climate models over the recent years, the forecasts generated by those models still cannot be used directly for hydrological forecasting. A post-processor like the Ensemble Pre-Processor (EPP) developed by U.S. National Weather Service must be used to remove various biases and to extract useful predictive information from those forecasts. In this paper, we investigate how different designs of canonical events in the EPP can help post-process precipitation forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). The use of canonical events allow those products to be linked seamlessly and then the post-processed ensemble precipitation forecasts can be generated using the Schaake Shuffle procedure. We used the post-processed ensemble precipitation forecasts to drive a distributed hydrological model to obtain ensemble streamflow forecasts and evaluated those forecasts against the observed streamflow. We found that the careful design of canonical events can help extract more useful information, especially when up-to-date observed precipitation is used to setup the canonical events. We also found that streamflow forecasts using post-processed precipitation forecasts have longer lead times and higher accuracy than streamflow forecasts made by traditional Extend Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and the forecasts based on original GEFS and CFSv2 precipitation forecasts.

  15. The National Solar Observatory Digital Library - a resource for space weather studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hill, F.; Erdwurm, W.; Branston, D.; McGraw, R.

    2000-09-01

    We describe the National Solar Observatory Digital Library (NSODL), consisting of 200GB of on-line archived solar data, a RDBMS search engine, and an Internet HTML-form user interface. The NSODL is open to all users and provides simple access to solar physics data of basic importance for space weather research and forecasting, heliospheric research, and education. The NSODL can be accessed at the URL www.nso.noao.edu/diglib.

  16. The impact of scatterometer wind data on global weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atlas, D.; Baker, W. E.; Kalnay, E.; Halem, M.; Woiceshyn, P. M.; Peteherych, S.

    1984-01-01

    The impact of SEASAT-A scatterometer (SASS) winds on coarse resolution atmospheric model forecasts was assessed. The scatterometer provides high resolution winds, but each wind can have up to four possible directions. One wind direction is correct; the remainder are ambiguous or "aliases'. In general, the effect of objectively dealiased-SASS data was found to be negligible in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, the impact was larger and primarily beneficial when vertical temperature profile radiometer (VTPR) data was excluded. However, the inclusion of VTPR data eliminates the positive impact, indicating some redundancy between the two data sets.

  17. Improving the physics models in the Space Weather Modeling Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toth, G.; Fang, F.; Frazin, R. A.; Gombosi, T. I.; Ilie, R.; Liemohn, M. W.; Manchester, W. B.; Meng, X.; Pawlowski, D. J.; Ridley, A. J.; Sokolov, I.; van der Holst, B.; Vichare, G.; Yigit, E.; Yu, Y.; Buzulukova, N.; Fok, M. H.; Glocer, A.; Jordanova, V. K.; Welling, D. T.; Zaharia, S. G.

    2010-12-01

    The success of physics based space weather forecasting depends on several factors: we need sufficient amount and quality of timely observational data, we have to understand the physics of the Sun-Earth system well enough, we need sophisticated computational models, and the models have to run faster than real time on the available computational resources. This presentation will focus on a single ingredient, the recent improvements of the mathematical and numerical models in the Space Weather Modeling Framework. We have developed a new physics based CME initiation code using flux emergence from the convection zone solving the equations of radiative magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). Our new lower corona and solar corona models use electron heat conduction, Alfven wave heating, and boundary conditions based on solar tomography. We can obtain a physically consistent solar wind model from the surface of the Sun all the way to the L1 point without artificially changing the polytropic index. The global magnetosphere model can now solve the multi-ion MHD equations and take into account the oxygen outflow from the polar wind model. We have also added the options of solving for Hall MHD and anisotropic pressure. Several new inner magnetosphere models have been added to the framework: CRCM, HEIDI and RAM-SCB. These new models resolve the pitch angle distribution of the trapped particles. The upper atmosphere model GITM has been improved by including a self-consistent equatorial electrodynamics and the effects of solar flares. This presentation will very briefly describe the developments and highlight some results obtained with the improved and new models.

  18. LOFAR new tool for Space Weather Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rothkaehl, Hanna; Krankowski, Andrzej; Wronowski, Roman; Przepiórka, Dorota; Matyjasiak, Barbara; Błaszkiewicz, Leszek; Dabrowski, Bartosz

    2016-04-01

    LOFAR is the Low-Frequency Array, exploring yet poorly studied range between 30-240 MHz frequencies. It constitutes a European array of thousands of antennas - a challenge for data transfer and processing techniques. The project is based on an interferometry array of radio telescopes using about thousand small antennas concentrated in at least 52 larger stations, 40 of these stations are distributed across the Netherlands, six stations in Germany, 3 in Poland and one each in Great Britain, France and Sweden. The data processing is performed by a Blue Gene/P supercomputer situated in the Netherlands at the University of Groningen. Novel ground based wide area sensor networks, such as the LOFAR (Low Frequency Array) radar facility, comprising wide band, and vector sensing radio receivers and multi-spacecraft plasma diagnostics should help solve outstanding problems of space physics and describe long-term environmental changes. The three new LOFAR stations were installed during 2015 in Poland. The LOFAR facilities in Poland are distributed among three sites: Borówiec near Poznan, Bałdy near Olsztyn and Łazy near Krakow. All they are connected via PIONIER dedicated links to Poznan. The frequency range of LOFAR (10-250 MHz) is a very important for the cosmic plasma physics. In this spectral domain we can observe for a first time the regions of normal and radio galaxies yet unseen at higher frequencies: their radio flux rapidly fades with frequency because of ageing population of high-energy relativistic electrons. This is also the optimum domain for observing the radio emission from magnetospheres of pulsars and giant (solar or extrasolar) planets. LOFAR will also give us chance for monitoring and diagnostic of different processes in space plasma enviroment of the Earth's and rado emissions from Sun. All this provides a trip to yet unexplored domains of the Universe and can be the exelent tool for SSA and Space Weather program

  19. Space Weather Model of July 22-23, 2012 CME

    NASA Video Gallery

    NASA's Space Weather Research Center modeled the July 23, 2012 CME using a modeling program called ENLIL. The CME can be seen to expand dramatically as it travels through space. By comparing how we...

  20. Space weathering and the interpretation of asteroid reflectance spectra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaffey, Michael J.

    2010-10-01

    Lunar-style space weathering is well understood, but cannot be extended to asteroids in general. The two best studied Asteroids (433 Eros and 243 Ida) exhibit quite different space weathering styles, and neither exhibits lunar-style space weathering. It must be concluded that at this time the diversity and mechanisms of asteroid space weathering are poorly understood. This introduces a significant unconstrained variable into the problem of analyzing asteroid spectral data. The sensitivity of asteroid surface material characterizations to space weathering effects - whatever their nature - is strongly dependent upon the choice of remote sensing methodology. The effects of space weathering on some methodologies such as curve matching are potentially devastating and at the present time essentially unmitigated. On other methodologies such as parametric analysis (e.g., analyses based on band centers and band area ratios) the effects are minimal. By choosing the appropriate methodology(ies) applied to high quality spectral data, robust characterizations of asteroid surface mineralogy can be obtained almost irrespective of space weathering. This permits sophisticated assessments of the geologic history of the asteroid parent bodies and of their relationships to the meteorites. Investigations of the diversity of space weathering processes on asteroid surfaces should be a fruitful area for future efforts.

  1. Space Weather Needs of an Evolving Customer Base (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rutledge, B.; Viereck, R. A.; Onsager, T. G.

    2013-12-01

    Great progress has been made in raising the global awareness of space weather and the associated impacts on Earth and our technological systems. However, significant gaps still exist in providing comprehensive and easily understood space weather information, products, and services to the diverse and growing customer base. As technologies, such as Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), have become more ingrained in applications and fields of work that previously did not rely on systems sensitive to space weather, the customer base has grown substantially. Furthermore, the causes and effects of space weather can be difficult to interpret without a detailed understanding of the scientific underpinnings. In response to this change, space weather service providers must address this evolution by both improving services and by representing space weather information and impacts in ways that are meaningful to each facet of this diverse customer base. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) must work with users, spanning precision agriculture, emergency management, power grid operators and beyond, to both identify unmet space weather service requirements and to ensure information and decision support services are provided in meaningful and more easily understood forms.

  2. The idea of Space Weather A historical perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kane, R. P.

    This paper reports the results of a search to determine who originated the concept and/or the term Space Weather. Though many people have been identified with an early use of the term "Space Weather", the first one to have introduced the term seems to be Thomas Gold of Harvard College Observatory, in a 1959 publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research.

  3. Communicating Climate Change - Weather Forecast Need Assessment and Information Dissemination Mechanism to Farmers in Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panthi, J., Sr.

    2014-12-01

    Climate Change is becoming one of the major threats to the fragile Himalayan ecosystem. It is affecting all sectors mainly fresh water, agriculture, forest, biodiversity and species. The subsistence agriculture system of Nepal is mainly rain-fed; therefore, climate change and climate extremes do have direct impacts on it. Weather extremes like droughts, floods and landslides long-lasting fog, hot and cold waves are affecting the agriculture sectors of Nepal. As human-induced climate change has already showing its impacts and it is going to be there for a long time to come, it is paramount importance to move towards the adaptation. Early warning system is an effective way for reducing the impacts of disasters. Forecasting of weather parameters (temperature, precipitation, and wind) helps farmers for their preparedness activities. With consultation with farmers and other relevant institutions, a research project was carried out, for the first time in Nepal, to identify the forecast information need to farmers and their dissemination mechanism. Community consultation workshops, key informant survey, and field observations were the techniques used for this research. Two ecological locations: Bageshwori VDC in Banke (plain) and Dhaibung VDC in Rasuwa (mountain) were taken as the pilot sites for this assessment. People in both the districts are dependent highly on agriculture and the weather extremes like hailstone, untimely rainfall; droughts are affecting their agriculture practices. They do not have confidence in the weather forecast information disseminated by the government of Nepal currently being done because it is a general forecast not done for a smaller domain and the forecast is valid only for 24 hours. The weather forecast need to the farmers in both the sites are: rainfall (intensity, duration and time), drought, and hailstone but in Banke, people wished to have the information of heat and cold waves too as they are affecting their wheat and tomato crops

  4. Technology Reconciliation in the Remote Sensing ERA of United States Civilian Weather Forecasting: 1957 -1987.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Courain, Margaret Eileen

    This dissertation seeks to advance an understanding of the management of a major technological change in meteorology. The study examines the connection between changes in production and real-time use of data products derived from remote -sensing data collection and the evolution of U.S. civilian weather forecasting 1957-1987. The role of data collection in weather forecasting throughout history is examined, giving most attention to the 1957-1987 period. Critical to the real-time use of remote-sensing data was technology reconciliation. As defined by the author, it is the function or process by which data products and information derived from a new technology are made consistent or congruent with the existing data representations of a science in order to be used effectively. No model had been developed for a technology reconciliation process, or definition of the major role technology reconciliators played in the 30-year evolution of the science of weather forecasting. In order to assess the new remote-sensing data resource and its use in U.S. civilian weather forecasting, a Data Accountability and Review Technique (DART) was developed by the author in 1989. This technique was used to identify 16 of the technology reconciliators who developed and reconciled 25 new remote-sensing data products with the weather charts, maps and computer models of the National Weather Service. In five separate program teams, they were responsible for 15 improvements in the products--forecasts--and 18 improvement in the process of weather forecasting. A model of the technology reconciliation is proposed which can be applied to understanding the contemporary history of other sciences. The model, as well as the methods developed by the author to recognize the process of technology reconciliation has a much more general applicability beyond the sciences. Any field implementing new technology that promises to improve its whole way of working will be faced with the task of technology

  5. Very Short Range Statistical Forecasting of Automated Weather Observations.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-01-01

    8217rsistence? on Tab.o i.K.c. .,>~:-~ c~ r~ i cia , Iment and for .:Ii I i .1LI .l .1i i oU s Toe total number * .( L.2 rtLs ind project ions. Tahit . )r t...miles or greater and ceiling- 1Ufl( feet or greater. VIS--Visihility. WD--Wi Td d ire ct ion. WS--W- Ind speed. WX--Presont weather. A-2- *mW UV-V1V...score, and 4) log score should have more scores !avoring GEM than persistence when all predictands are Coils ide-. -(I. - GEM must demonstrate op ind

  6. Evaluation and Application of the Weather Research and Forecast Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-12-01

    HEADQUARTERS DEPT OF ARMY DAMI POB WEATHER TEAM 1000 ARMY PENTAGON ROOM 2E383 WASHINGTON DC 20310-1067 1 CD HQ AFWA/DNX 106 PEACEKEEPER DR...CO APG MD 21010-5423 1 CD US ARMY RESEARCH LAB AMSRD ARL CI ATTN J GOWENS 2800 POWDER MILL ROAD ADELPHI MD 20783-1197 1 CD US ARMY...CECRL CECRL GP ATTN DR DETSCH HANOVER NH 03755-1290 1 CD USAF ROME LAB TECH CORRIDOR W STE 262 RL SUL 26 ELECTR PKWY BLD 106 GRIFFISS AFB

  7. Assessing reference evapotranspiration at regional scale based on remote sensing, weather forecast and GIS tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramírez-Cuesta, J. M.; Cruz-Blanco, M.; Santos, C.; Lorite, I. J.

    2017-03-01

    Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a key component in efficient water management, especially in arid and semi-arid environments. However, accurate ETo assessment at the regional scale is complicated by the limited number of weather stations and the strict requirements in terms of their location and surrounding physical conditions for the collection of valid weather data. In an attempt to overcome this limitation, new approaches based on the use of remote sensing techniques and weather forecast tools have been proposed. Use of the Land Surface Analysis Satellite Application Facility (LSA SAF) tool and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have allowed the design and development of innovative approaches for ETo assessment, which are especially useful for areas lacking available weather data from weather stations. Thus, by identifying the best-performing interpolation approaches (such as the Thin Plate Splines, TPS) and by developing new approaches (such as the use of data from the most similar weather station, TS, or spatially distributed correction factors, CITS), errors as low as 1.1% were achieved for ETo assessment. Spatial and temporal analyses reveal that the generated errors were smaller during spring and summer as well as in homogenous topographic areas. The proposed approaches not only enabled accurate calculations of seasonal and daily ETo values, but also contributed to the development of a useful methodology for evaluating the optimum number of weather stations to be integrated into a weather station network and the appropriateness of their locations. In addition to ETo, other variables included in weather forecast datasets (such as temperature or rainfall) could be evaluated using the same innovative methodology proposed in this study.

  8. Space Weathering Rates in Lunar and Itokawa Samples

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keller, L. P.; Berger, E. L.

    2017-01-01

    Space weathering alters the chemistry, microstructure, and spectral proper-ties of grains on the surfaces of airless bodies by two major processes: micrometeorite impacts and solar wind interactions. Investigating the nature of space weathering processes both in returned samples and in remote sensing observations provides information fundamental to understanding the evolution of airless body regoliths, improving our ability to determine the surface composition of asteroids, and linking meteorites to specific asteroidal parent bodies. Despite decades of research into space weathering processes and their effects, we still know very little about weathering rates. For example, what is the timescale to alter the reflectance spectrum of an ordinary chondrite meteorite to resemble the overall spectral shape and slope from an S-type asteroid? One approach to answering this question has been to determine ages of asteroid families by dynamical modeling and determine the spectral proper-ties of the daughter fragments. However, large differences exist between inferred space weathering rates and timescales derived from laboratory experiments, analysis of asteroid family spectra and the space weathering styles; estimated timescales range from 5000 years up to 108 years. Vernazza et al. concluded that solar wind interactions dominate asteroid space weathering on rapid timescales of 10(exp 4)-10(exp 6) years. Shestopalov et al. suggested that impact-gardening of regolith particles and asteroid resurfacing counteract the rapid progress of solar wind optical maturation of asteroid surfaces and proposed a space weathering timescale of 10(exp 5)-10(exp 6) years.

  9. Solar Radio Bursts and Space Weather

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk,

    2012-01-01

    Radio bursts from the Sun are produced by electron accelerated to relativistic energies by physical processes on the Sun such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The radio bursts are thus good indicators of solar eruptions. Three types of nonthermal radio bursts are generally associated with CMEs. Type III bursts due to accelerated electrons propagating along open magnetic field lines. The electrons are thought to be accelerated at the reconnection region beneath the erupting CME, although there is another view that the electrons may be accelerated at the CME-driven shock. Type II bursts are due to electrons accelerated at the shock front. Type II bursts are also excellent indicators of solar energetic particle (SEP) events because the same shock is supposed accelerate electrons and ions. There is a hierarchical relationship between the wavelength range of type /I bursts and the CME kinetic energy. Finally, Type IV bursts are due to electrons trapped in moving or stationary structures. The low frequency stationary type IV bursts are observed occasionally in association with very fast CMEs. These bursts originate from flare loops behind the erupting CME and hence indicate tall loops. This paper presents a summary of radio bursts and their relation to CMEs and how they can be useful for space weather predictions.

  10. Improving multimodel weather forecast of monsoon rain over China using FSU superensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krishnamurti, T. N.; Sagadevan, A. D.; Chakraborty, A.; Mishra, A. K.; Simon, A.

    2009-09-01

    In this paper we present the current capabilities for numerical weather prediction of precipitation over China using a suite of ten multimodels and our superensemble based forecasts. Our suite of models includes the operational suite selected by NCARs TIGGE archives for the THORPEX Program. These are: ECMWF, UKMO, JMA, NCEP, CMA, CMC, BOM, MF, KMA and the CPTEC models. The superensemble strategy includes a training and a forecasts phase, for these the periods chosen for this study include the months February through September for the years 2007 and 2008. This paper addresses precipitation forecasts for the medium range i.e. Days 1 to 3 and extending out to Day 10 of forecasts using this suite of global models. For training and forecasts validations we have made use of an advanced TRMM satellite based rainfall product. We make use of standard metrics for forecast validations that include the RMS errors, spatial correlations and the equitable threat scores. The results of skill forecasts of precipitation clearly demonstrate that it is possible to obtain higher skills for precipitation forecasts for Days 1 through 3 of forecasts from the use of the multimodel superensemble as compared to the best model of this suite. Between Days 4 to 10 it is possible to have very high skills from the multimodel superensemble for the RMS error of precipitation. Those skills are shown for a global belt and especially over China. Phenomenologically this product was also found very useful for precipitation forecasts for the Onset of the South China Sea monsoon, the life cycle of the mei-yu rains and post typhoon landfall heavy rains and flood events. The higher skills of the multimodel superensemble make it a very useful product for such real time events.

  11. Forecasting Dust Storms Using the CARMA-Dust Model and MM5 Weather Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnum, B. H.; Winstead, N. S.; Wesely, J.; Hakola, A.; Colarco, P.; Toon, O. B.; Ginoux, P.; Brooks, G.; Hasselbarth, L. M.; Toth, B.; Sterner, R.

    2002-12-01

    An operational model for the forecast of dust storms in Northern Africa, the Middle East and Southwest Asia has been developed for the United States Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). The dust forecast model uses the 5th generation Penn State Mesoscale Meteorology Model (MM5), and a modified version of the Colorado Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA). AFWA conducted a 60 day evaluation of the dust model to look at the model's ability to forecast dust storms for short, medium and long range (72 hour) forecast periods. The study used satellite and ground observations of dust storms to verify the model's effectiveness. Each of the main mesoscale forecast theaters was broken down into smaller sub-regions for detailed analysis. The study found the forecast model was able to forecast dust storms in Saharan Africa and the Sahel region with an average Probability of Detection (POD)exceeding 68%, with a 16% False Alarm Rate (FAR). The Southwest Asian theater had average POD's of 61% with FAR's averaging 10%.

  12. Economic consequences of improved temperature forecasts: An experiment with the Florida citrus growers (control group results). Executive summary. [weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    A demonstration experiment is being planned to show that frost and freeze prediction improvements are possible utilizing timely Synchronous Meteorological Satellite temperature measurements and that this information can affect Florida citrus grower operations and decisions so as to significantly reduce the cost for frost and freeze protection and crop losses. The design and implementation of the first phase of an economic experiment which will monitor citrus growers decisions, actions, costs and losses, and meteorological forecasts and actual weather events was carried out. The economic experiment was designed to measure the change in annual protection costs and crop losses which are the direct result of improved temperature forecasts. To estimate the benefits that may result from improved temperature forecasting capability, control and test groups were established with effective separation being accomplished temporally. The control group, utilizing current forecasting capability, was observed during the 1976-77 frost season and the results are reported. A brief overview is given of the economic experiment, the results obtained to date, and the work which still remains to be done.

  13. Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning: Summary report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keitz, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This summary report discusses the results of each of the four major tasks of the study. Task 1 compared airline flight plans based on operational forecasts to plans based on the verifying analyses and found that average fuel savings of 1.2 to 2.5 percent are possible with improved forecasts. Task 2 consisted of similar comparisons but used a model developed for the FAA by SRI International that simulated the impact of ATc diversions on the flight plans. While parts of Task 2 confirm the Task I findings, inconsistency with other data and the known impact of ATC suggests that other Task 2 findings are the result of errors in the model. Task 3 compares segment weather data from operational flight plans with the weather actually observed by the aircraft and finds the average error could result in fuel burn penalties (or savings) of up to 3.6 percent for the average 8747 flight. In Task 4 an in-depth analysis of the weather forecast for the 33 days included in the study finds that significant errors exist on 15 days. Wind speeds in the area of maximum winds are underestimated by 20 to 50 kts., a finding confirmed in the other three tasks.

  14. The Evolution and Space Weather Effects of Solar Coronal Holes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krista, Larisza; Gallagher, P.

    2011-05-01

    As solar activity is the foremost important aspect of space weather, the forecasting of flare and CME related transient geomagnetic storms has become a primary initiative. Minor magnetic storms caused by coronal holes (CHs) have also proven to be important due to their long-lasting and recurrent geomagnetic effects. In order to forecast CH related geomagnetic storms, the author developed the Coronal Hole Automated Recognition and Monitoring (CHARM) algorithm to replace the user-dependent CH detection methods commonly used. CHARM uses an intensity thresholding method to identify low intensity regions in EUV or X-ray images. Since CHs are regions of "open” magnetic field and predominant polarity, magnetograms were used to differentiate CHs from other low intensity regions. The Coronal Hole Evolution (CHEVOL) algorithm was developed and used in conjunction with CHARM to study the boundary evolution of CHs. It is widely accepted that the short-term changes in CH boundaries are due to the interchange reconnection between the CH open field lines and small loops. We determined the magnetic reconnection rate and the diffusion coefficient at CH boundaries in order to test the interchange reconnection model. The author also developed the Minor Storm (MIST) package to link CHs to high-speed solar wind (HSSW) periods detected at Earth. Using the algorithm the relationship between CHs, the corresponding HSSW properties, and geomagnetic indices were studied between 2000-2009. The results showed a strong correlation between the velocity and HSSW proton plasma temperature, which indicates that the heating and acceleration of the solar wind plasma in CHs are closely related, and perhaps caused by the same mechanism. The research presented here includes analysis of CHs on small and large spatial/temporal scales, allowing us to further our understanding of CHs as a whole.

  15. Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 4

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keitz, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 4 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 4 uses flight plan segment wind and temperature differences as indicators of dates and geographic areas for which significant forecast errors may have occurred. An in-depth analysis is then conducted for the days identified. The analysis show that significant errors occur in the operational forecast on 15 of the 33 arbitrarily selected days included in the study. Wind speeds in an area of maximum winds are underestimated by at least 20 to 25 kts. on 14 of these days. The analysis also show that there is a tendency to repeat the same forecast errors from prog to prog. Also, some perceived forecast errors from the flight plan comparisons could not be verified by visual inspection of the corresponding National Meteorological Center forecast and analyses charts, and it is likely that they are the result of weather data interpolation techniques or some other data processing procedure in the airlines' flight planning systems.

  16. Evidence for Intense Space Weathering on Mercury

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucey, P. G.; Riner, M. A.

    2010-12-01

    The optical effects of exposure of lunar materials to space are well-characterized (e.g [1]) and similar effects are expected on Mercury. In the lunar case perhaps the most notable effect is strong reddening of lunar materials relative to powdered lunar rocks. There is consensus that this is due to the effect of extremely fine grained (10’s of nm) particles of iron that occur in rims on mineral grains generated during micrometeorite impact and sputtering [2]. Noble et al. 2007 [3] studied silica gel samples infused with fine grained iron and observed lunar-like optical effects. Hapke 2001 [4] used Maxwell-Garnett theory to combine the optical properties of iron metal with the optical properties of the host lunar material to successfully produce the reddening and darkening effects observed. Lucey and Noble 2008 [5] tested the Hapke 2001 formulation against the Noble et al. (2007) data and found good agreement when particles were small with respect to the wavelength. However, particles that were larger than about 50 nm showed sharp deviations from the predictions of the Hapke 2001 treatment. At present there is no theoretical treatment of iron metal inclusions that darken, but do not redden. The Hapke 2001 formulation for modeling the optical effect of iron particles within grains relates the complex index of refraction of the host mineral, iron and particle size of the host to the single scattering albedo to account for absorption due to subwavelength particle inclusions, and adds this to his previously defined absorption coefficient. This absorbing effect, based on equivalent medium Maxwell-Garnett theory, assumes the particles are much smaller than the wavelength, and hence has no particle size dependence. While [5] showed Hapke’s model for space weathering works well for very small particles, the larger particles in the Noble et al. 2007 experiments did not conform well to predictions. To introduce a wavelength dependent term we replace Hapke’s term that

  17. Evaluation of the 29-km Eta Model for Weather Support to the United States Space Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manobianco, John; Nutter, Paul

    1997-01-01

    The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) conducted a year-long evaluation of NCEP's 29-km mesoscale Eta (meso-eta) weather prediction model in order to identify added value to forecast operations in support of the United States space program. The evaluation was stratified over warm and cool seasons and considered both objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective verification results generally indicate that meso-eta model point forecasts at selected stations exhibit minimal error growth in terms of RMS errors and are reasonably unbiased. Conversely, results from the subjective verification demonstrate that model forecasts of developing weather events such as thunderstorms, sea breezes, and cold fronts, are not always as accurate as implied by the seasonal error statistics. Sea-breeze case studies reveal that the model generates a dynamically-consistent thermally direct circulation over the Florida peninsula, although at a larger scale than observed. Thunderstorm verification reveals that the meso-eta model is capable of predicting areas of organized convection, particularly during the late afternoon hours but is not capable of forecasting individual thunderstorms. Verification of cold fronts during the cool season reveals that the model is capable of forecasting a majority of cold frontal passages through east central Florida to within +1-h of observed frontal passage.

  18. Division II / Working Group International Collaboration in Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webb, David F.; Gopalswamy, Nat; Liu, William; Sibeck, David G.; Schmieder, Brigitte; Wang, Jingxiu; Wang, Chi

    2007-12-01

    The IAU Division II WG on International Collaboration in Space Weather has as its main goal to help coordinate the many activities related to space weather at an international level. The WG currently includes the international activities of the International Heliospheric Year (IHY), the International Living with a Star (ILWS) program, the CAWSES (Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System) Working Group on Sources of Geomagnetic Activity, and Space Weather Studies in China. The coordination of IHY activities within the IAU is led by Division II under this working group. The focus of this half-day meeting was on the activities of the IHY program. About 20 people were in attendance. The Chair of the WG, David F. Webb, gave a brief introduction noting that the meeting would have two parts: first, a session on IHY activities emphasizing IHY Regional coordination and, second, a general discussion of the other programs of the WG involving international Space Weather activities.

  19. Building a new space weather facility at the National Observatory of Athens

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kontogiannis, Ioannis; Belehaki, Anna; Tsiropoula, Georgia; Tsagouri, Ioanna; Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Papaioannou, Athanasios

    2016-01-01

    The PROTEAS project has been initiated at the Institute of Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing (IAASARS) of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA). One of its main objectives is to provide observations, processed data and space weather nowcasting and forecasting products, designed to support the space weather research community and operators of commercial and industrial systems. The space weather products to be released by this facility, will be the result of the exploitation of ground-based, as well as space-borne observations and of model results and tools already available or under development by IAASARS researchers. The objective will be achieved through: (a) the operation of a small full-disk solar telescope to conduct regular observations of the Sun in the H-alpha line; (b) the construction of a database with near real-time solar observations which will be available to the community through a web-based facility (HELIOSERVER); (c) the development of a tool for forecasting Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events in relation to observed solar eruptive events; (d) the upgrade of the Athens Digisonde with digital transceivers and the capability of operating in bi-static link mode and (e) the sustainable operation of the European Digital Upper Atmosphere Server (DIAS) upgraded with additional data sets integrated in an interface with the HELIOSERVER and with improved models for the real-time quantification of the effects of solar eruptive events in the ionosphere.

  20. Convective Weather Forecast Quality Metrics for Air Traffic Management Decision-Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chatterji, Gano B.; Gyarfas, Brett; Chan, William N.; Meyn, Larry A.

    2006-01-01

    Since numerical weather prediction models are unable to accurately