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Sample records for space weather forecast

  1. Space Weather Forecasting: An Enigma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sojka, J. J.

    2012-12-01

    -pipe" disciplines. The perceived progress in space weather understanding differs significantly depending upon which community (scientific, technology, forecaster, society) is addressing the question. Even more divergent are these thoughts when the question is how valuable is the scientific capability of forecasting space weather. This talk will discuss present day as well as future potential for forecasting space weather for a few selected examples. The author will attempt to straddle the divergent community opinions.

  2. Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare

  3. Prediction Techniques in Operational Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhukov, Andrei

    2016-07-01

    The importance of forecasting space weather conditions is steadily increasing as our society is becoming more and more dependent on advanced technologies that may be affected by disturbed space weather. Operational space weather forecasting is still a difficult task that requires the real-time availability of input data and specific prediction techniques that are reviewed in this presentation, with an emphasis on solar and interplanetary weather. Key observations that are essential for operational space weather forecasting are listed. Predictions made on the base of empirical and statistical methods, as well as physical models, are described. Their validation, accuracy, and limitations are discussed in the context of operational forecasting. Several important problems in the scientific basis of predicting space weather are described, and possible ways to overcome them are discussed, including novel space-borne observations that could be available in future.

  4. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, Forecast Office

    NASA Video Gallery

    The Forecast Office of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the nation's official source of alerts, warnings, and watches. The office, staffed 24/7, is always vigilant for solar activity that ...

  5. How MAG4 Improves Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David; Khazanov, Igor; Barghouty, Nasser

    2013-01-01

    Dangerous space weather is driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs). Forecasting flares and CMEs is the first step to forecasting either dangerous space weather or All Clear. MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events.

  6. Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

    2015-12-01

    The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

  7. Sentinels of the Sun: Forecasting Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poland, Arthur I.

    2006-08-01

    The story of humanity's interest in space weather may go back to prehistoric times when people at high latitudes noticed the northern lights. Interest became more acute after the development of electrical technologies such as the telegraph, and certainly during World War II when shortwave radio communication came into practical use. Solar observing actually began to be supported by the military, with the observatory at Climax, Colorado being established to monitor the Sun during the war. With the advent of satellites and manned space travel to the Moon, space weather became a seriously funded endeavor both for basic research and forecasting. In the book, Sentinels of the Sun: Forecasting Space Weather, Barbara Poppe does an excellent job of telling this story for the nonprofessional. Moreover, as a professional who has studied space weather since before humans landed on the Moon, I found the book to be a very enjoyable read.

  8. Space weather forecasting: Past, Present, Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lanzerotti, L. J.

    2012-12-01

    There have been revolutionary advances in electrical technologies over the last 160 years. The historical record demonstrates that space weather processes have often provided surprises in the implementation and operation of many of these technologies. The historical record also demonstrates that as the complexity of systems increase, including their interconnectedness and interoperability, they can become more susceptible to space weather effects. An engineering goal, beginning during the decades following the 1859 Carrington event, has been to attempt to forecast solar-produced disturbances that could affect technical systems, be they long grounded conductor-based or radio-based or required for exploration, or the increasingly complex systems immersed in the space environment itself. Forecasting of space weather events involves both frontier measurements and models to address engineering requirements, and industrial and governmental policies that encourage and permit creativity and entrepreneurship. While analogies of space weather forecasting to terrestrial weather forecasting are frequently made, and while many of the analogies are valid, there are also important differences. This presentation will provide some historical perspectives on the forecast problem, a personal assessment of current status of several areas including important policy issues, and a look into the not-too-distant future.

  9. SWIFF: Space weather integrated forecasting framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lapenta, Giovanni; Pierrard, Viviane; Keppens, Rony; Markidis, Stefano; Poedts, Stefaan; Šebek, Ondřej; Trávníček, Pavel M.; Henri, Pierre; Califano, Francesco; Pegoraro, Francesco; Faganello, Matteo; Olshevsky, Vyacheslav; Restante, Anna Lisa; Nordlund, Åke; Trier Frederiksen, Jacob; Mackay, Duncan H.; Parnell, Clare E.; Bemporad, Alessandro; Susino, Roberto; Borremans, Kris

    2013-02-01

    SWIFF is a project funded by the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Commission to study the mathematical-physics models that form the basis for space weather forecasting. The phenomena of space weather span a tremendous scale of densities and temperature with scales ranging 10 orders of magnitude in space and time. Additionally even in local regions there are concurrent processes developing at the electron, ion and global scales strongly interacting with each other. The fundamental challenge in modelling space weather is the need to address multiple physics and multiple scales. Here we present our approach to take existing expertise in fluid and kinetic models to produce an integrated mathematical approach and software infrastructure that allows fluid and kinetic processes to be modelled together. SWIFF aims also at using this new infrastructure to model specific coupled processes at the Solar Corona, in the interplanetary space and in the interaction at the Earth magnetosphere.

  10. System Science approach to Space Weather forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balikhin, Michael A.

    There are many dynamical systems in nature that are so complex that mathematical models of their behaviour can not be deduced from first principles with the present level of our knowledge. Obvious examples are organic cell, human brain, etc often attract system scientists. A example that is closer to space physics is the terrestrial magnetosphere. The system approach has been developed to understand such complex objects from the observation of their dynamics. The systems approach employs advanced data analysis methodologies to identify patterns in the overall system behaviour and provides information regarding the linear and nonlinear processes involved in the dynamics of the system. This, in combination with the knowledge deduced from the first principles, creates the opportunity to find mathematical relationships that govern the evolution of a particular physical system. Advances and problems of systems science applications to provide a reliable forecasts of space weather phenomena such as geomagnetic storms, substorms and radiation belts particle fluxes are reviewed and compared with the physics based models.

  11. Review on space weather in Latin America. 3. Development of space weather forecasting centers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dasso, Sergio; Gonzalez-Esparza, J. Americo

    2016-11-01

    The present work is the third of a three-part review of space weather in Latin America, specifically observing its evolution in three countries (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico). This work presents the decision process for the spinning off of space weather prediction centers from space science groups with our interpretation of the reasons/opportunities that lead to this. Lastly, the constraints for the progress in space weather monitoring, research, and forecast are listed with recommendations to overcome them, which we believe will lead to the access of key variables for the monitoring and forecasting space weather, which will allow these centers to better monitor space weather and issue warnings, ​watches and alerts.

  12. Operational Space Weather Forecasting: Requirements and Future Needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henley, E.; Gibbs, M.; Jackson, D.; Marsh, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    The Met Office has over 150 years' experience in providing operational forecasting to meet the UK's terrestrial weather needs, and is developing a similar capability in space weather. Since April 2014 the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) has issued 24/7 operational forecasts, alerts and warnings on space weather which can have impacts on electricity grids, radio communications and satellite electronics. In this talk we will summarise the current requirements and future needs for operational space weather forecasting. We will review what the terrestrial weather community considers as operational forecasts, and use MOSWOC as an example of the underpinning research, IT and collaborations required to accomplish this. We will also discuss the policy, science evidence base and user support requirements needed to obtain sufficient long-term funding for operational activities, illustrating this with the UK's national risk register, Royal Academy of Engineering report, and the forthcoming IPSP economic study, as well as work done with users to ensure services match their needs. These are similar activities to those being undertaken in SWORM and the COSPAR/ILWS Space Weather Shield to Society Roadmap. Future needs will also be considered, considering the need for operational observations, particularly focussing on the role an L5 mission could play; a chain of coupled operational models covering the Sun, Earth, and intervening space; and how these observations and models can be integrated via data assimilation.

  13. Near Real Time Data for Operational Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berger, T. E.

    2014-12-01

    Space weather operations presents unique challenges for data systems and providers. Space weather events evolve more quickly than terrestrial weather events. While terrestrial weather occurs on timescales of minutes to hours, space weather storms evolve on timescales of seconds to minutes. For example, the degradation of the High Frequency Radio communications between the ground and commercial airlines is nearly instantaneous when a solar flare occurs. Thus the customer is observing impacts at the same time that the operational forecast center is seeing the event unfold. The diversity and spatial scale of the space weather system is such that no single observation can capture the salient features. The vast space that encompasses space weather and the scarcity of observations further exacerbates the situation and make each observation even more valuable. The physics of interplanetary space, through which many major storms propagate, is very different from the physics of the ionosphere where most of the impacts are felt. And while some observations can be made from ground-based observatories, many of the most critical data comes from satellites, often in unique orbits far from Earth. In this presentation, I will describe some of the more important sources and types of data that feed into the operational alerts, watches, and warnings of space weather storms. Included will be a discussion of some of the new space weather forecast models and the data challenges that they bring forward.

  14. Space Weather Monitoring and Forecasting Activity in NICT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Watari, Shinichi; T. Murata, Ken

    Disturbances of Space environment around the Earth (geospace) is controlled by the activity of the Sun and the solar wind. Disturbances in geospace sometimes cause serious problems to satellites, astronauts, and telecommunications. To minimize the effect of the problems, space weather forecasting is necessary. In Japan, NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) is in charge of space weather forecasting services as a regional warning center of International Space Environment Service. With help of geospace environment data exchanging among the international cooperation, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide information on nowcasts and forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. For prompt reporting of space weather information, we also conduct our original observation networks from the Sun to the upper atmosphere: Hiraiso solar observatory, domestic ionosonde networks, magnetometer & HF radar observations in far-east Siberia and Alaska, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionospheric network (SEALION). ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) and STEREO (Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory) real-time beacon data are received using our antenna facilities to monitor the solar and solar wind conditions in near real-time. Our current activities and future perspective of space weather monitoring and forecasting will be introduced in this report.

  15. Ionospheric data availability for space weather modelling and forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terkildsen, Michael

    2012-07-01

    This paper reviews and contrasts current, and future, ionospheric observations available for space weather forecasting, with its requirement for continuity and low latency; and for space weather and solar-terrestrial research, generally requiring higher precision and often lengthy data pre-processing. Historically, instrumentation projects or missions have been designed with the primary aim of addressing scientific research goals. The space weather service industry has often relied on this data to augment their own limited real time instrumentation networks, and adapted as necessary. Increasingly, however, missions are being established, or tailored, with space weather service provision as a key goal, improving the latency and minimising the data pre-processing requirements. This has opened up the range of ionospheric monitoring data now available for space weather products and services. This paper reviews some of these ionospheric data sources, and how they impact space weather service provision.

  16. The Design of Solar Synoptic Chart for Space Weather Forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Qiao; Wang, JinSong; Feng, Xueshang; Zhang, XiaoXin

    2015-08-01

    The influence of space weather has already been an important part of our modern society. A chart with key concepts and objects in space weather is needed for space weather forecast. In this work, we search space weather liter- atures during the past forty years and investigate a variety of solar data sets, which including our own data observed by the vector magnetic field telescope and the Hα telescope at Wenquan and Shidao stations of National Center for Space Weather. Based on the literatures and data, we design the solar synoptic chart (SSC) that covers main objects of solar activities and contains images from different heights and temperatures of solar atmosphere. The SSC includes the information of active regions, coronal holes, filaments/prominences, flares and coronal mass ejections, and reveals magnetic structures from cooler photosphere to hotter corona. We use the SSC method to analyze the condition of the Sun and give two typical examples of the SSC. The result shows that the SSC is timely, comprehensive, concise and easy to understand, and it meets the needs of space weather forecast and can help improving the public education of space weather.

  17. Forecasting of Weather Effects for the Deep Space Network

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendoza, Ricardo; Benjauthrit, Boonsieng

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a proposed approach for Ka-band link management for deep space applications using daily weather forecasts and discusses the tools that will be employed for operations. Performance metrics are also presented. The proposed approach will be tested in a two-year experiment campaign.

  18. Fifty Years of Space Weather Forecasting from Boulder

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berger, T. E.

    2015-12-01

    The first official space weather forecast was issued by the Space Disturbances Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, in 1965, ushering in an era of operational prediction that continues to this day. Today, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) charters the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) as one of the nine National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to provide the nation's official watches, warnings, and alerts of space weather phenomena. SWPC is now integral to national and international efforts to predict space weather events, from the common and mild, to the rare and extreme, that can impact critical technological infrastructure. In 2012, the Strategic National Risk Assessment included extreme space weather events as low-to-medium probability phenomena that could, unlike any other meteorogical phenomena, have an impact on the government's ability to function. Recognizing this, the White House chartered the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to produce the first comprehensive national strategy for the prediction, mitigation, and response to an extreme space weather event. The implementation of the National Strategy is ongoing with NOAA, its partners, and stakeholders concentrating on the goal of improving our ability to observe, model, and predict the onset and severity of space weather events. In addition, work continues with the research community to improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms - on the Sun, in the heliosphere, and in the Earth's magnetic field and upper atmosphere - of space weather as well as the effects on critical infrastructure such as electrical power transmission systems. In fifty years, people will hopefully look back at the history of operational space weather prediction and credit our efforts today with solidifying the necessary developments in observational systems, full-physics models of the entire Sun-Earth system, and tools for predicting the impacts to infrastructure to protect

  19. A Modeler's Perspective on Space Weather Forecasting (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiltberger, M. J.

    2010-12-01

    Space physics is moving into a new era where numerical models originally developed for answering science questions are used as the basis for making operational space weather forecasts. Answering this challenge requires developments on multiple fronts requiring collaborations across space physics disciplines and between the research and operations communities. Since space weather in geospace is driven by the solar wind conditions a natural solution to improving the forecast lead time is to couple geospace models to heliospheric models. The quality of these forecast is dependent upon the ability of the heliospheric models to accurately model IMF Bz. Another challenge presented by moving into the forecasting arena is preparing the models for real-time operation which includes both computational performance and data redundancy issues. Moving into operations also presents modelers with an opportunity to assess their models performance over calculation intervals unprecedented duration. A key collaboration in the transition of models to operation is the discussion between forecasters and developers on what forecast parameters can accurately be predicted by the current generation of numerical models. This collaboration naturally includes a discussion of the definition of the best metrics to be used in quantitatively assessing performance.

  20. Characteristics of Operational Space Weather Forecasting: Observations and Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berger, Thomas; Viereck, Rodney; Singer, Howard; Onsager, Terry; Biesecker, Doug; Rutledge, Robert; Hill, Steven; Akmaev, Rashid; Milward, George; Fuller-Rowell, Tim

    2015-04-01

    In contrast to research observations, models and ground support systems, operational systems are characterized by real-time data streams and run schedules, with redundant backup systems for most elements of the system. We review the characteristics of operational space weather forecasting, concentrating on the key aspects of ground- and space-based observations that feed models of the coupled Sun-Earth system at the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Building on the infrastructure of the National Weather Service, SWPC is working toward a fully operational system based on the GOES weather satellite system (constant real-time operation with back-up satellites), the newly launched DSCOVR satellite at L1 (constant real-time data network with AFSCN backup), and operational models of the heliosphere, magnetosphere, and ionosphere/thermosphere/mesophere systems run on the Weather and Climate Operational Super-computing System (WCOSS), one of the worlds largest and fastest operational computer systems that will be upgraded to a dual 2.5 Pflop system in 2016. We review plans for further operational space weather observing platforms being developed in the context of the Space Weather Operations Research and Mitigation (SWORM) task force in the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) at the White House. We also review the current operational model developments at SWPC, concentrating on the differences between the research codes and the modified real-time versions that must run with zero fault tolerance on the WCOSS systems. Understanding the characteristics and needs of the operational forecasting community is key to producing research into the coupled Sun-Earth system with maximal societal benefit.

  1. An overview on the Space Weather in Latin America: from Space Research to Space Weather and its Forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Nardin, C. M.; Gonzalez-Esparza, A.; Dasso, S.

    2015-12-01

    We present an overview on the Space Weather in Latin America, highlighting the main findings from our review the recent advances in the space science investigations in Latin America focusing in the solar-terrestrial interactions, modernly named space weather, which leaded to the creation of forecast centers. Despite recognizing advances in the space research over the whole Latin America, this review is restricted to the evolution observed in three countries (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico) only, due to the fact that these countries have recently developed operational center for monitoring the space weather. The work starts with briefly mentioning the first groups that started the space science in Latin America. The current status and research interest of such groups are then described together with the most referenced works and the challenges for the next decade to solve space weather puzzles. A small inventory of the networks and collaborations being built is also described. Finally, the decision process for spinning off the space weather prediction centers from the space science groups is reported with an interpretation of the reason/opportunities that lead to it. Lastly, the constraints for the progress in the space weather monitoring, research, and forecast are listed with recommendations to overcome them.

  2. Forecasting Safe or Dangerous Space Weather from HMI Magnetograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor; Moore, Ron

    2011-01-01

    We have developed a space-weather forecasting tool using an active-region free-energy proxy that was measured from MDI line-of-sight magnetograms. To develop this forecasting tool (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather Journal, in press), we used a database of 40,000 MDI magnetograms of 1300 active regions observed by MDI during the previous solar cycle (cycle 23). From each magnetogram we measured our free-energy proxy and for each active region we determined its history of major flare, CME and Solar Particle Event (SPE) production. This database determines from the value of an active region s free-energy proxy the active region s expected rate of production of 1) major flares, 2) CMEs, 3) fast CMEs, and 4) SPEs during the next few days. This tool was delivered to NASA/SRAG in 2010. With MDI observations ending, we have to be able to use HMI magnetograms instead of MDI magnetograms. One of the difficulties is that the measured value of the free-energy proxy is sensitive to the spatial resolution of the measured magnetogram: the 0.5 /pixel resolution of HMI gives a different value for the free-energy proxy than the 2 /pixels resolution of MDI. To use our MDI-database forecasting curves until a comparably large HMI database is accumulated, we smooth HMI line-of-sight magnetograms to MDI resolution, so that we can use HMI to find the value of the free-energy proxy that MDI would have measured, and then use the forecasting curves given by the MDI database. The new version for use with HMI magnetograms was delivered to NASA/SRAG (March 2011). It can also use GONG magnetograms, as a backup.

  3. Using Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) For Space-Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bisi, M. M.; Jackson, B. V.; Fallows, R. A.; Tokumaru, M.; Jensen, E. A.; Lee, J.; Harrison, R.; Hapgood, M. A.; Wu, C.; Davies, J.

    2013-12-01

    There have been several recent space-weather events where few or no signatures of an impending Earth-affecting large-scale heliospheric structure have been detected until the structure has impacted the Earth's space environment or is at least in close proximity. In addition, some of these (for example, the late-May/early-June 2013 geomagnetic storm) have been relatively-small coronal mass ejection (CME) ';like' structures complicated by stream-interaction and/or co-rotating features. Significant progress has been made over the last few years on the implementation of, and science resulting from, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) radio remote-sensing observations of the inner heliosphere. These observations of IPS have been undertaken using the European Incoherent SCATter (EISCAT) radar and the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR) radio-telescope systems, as well as with the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (STEL/STELab) IPS arrays and the new IPS system at the Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC). LOFAR is a low-frequency pathfinder for the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), which is expected to be the World's largest ever radio-telescope system. Here, we will primarily use the University of California, San Diego (UCSD) three-dimensional (3-D) tomography by incorporating STELab IPS data along with, where data are available, the use of additional targeted individual observations of IPS from other systems as well as 3-D MHD simulations. The overall aim is to try to ascertain how well current IPS methods can be used for space-weather forecasting (and aftcasting), particularly for events seemingly missed by other extant forecasting methods.

  4. Forecasting Space Weather Events for a Neighboring World

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zheng, Yihua; Mason, Tom; Wood, Erin L.

    2015-01-01

    Shortly after NASA's Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN mission (MAVEN) spacecraft entered Mars' orbit on 21 September 2014, scientists glimpsed the Martian atmosphere's response to a front of solar energetic particles (SEPs) and an associated coronal mass ejection (CME). In response to some solar flares and CMEs, streams of SEPs burst from the solar atmosphere and are further accelerated in the interplanetary medium between the Sun and the planets. These particles deposit their energy and momentum into anything in their path, including the Martian atmosphere and MAVEN particle detectors. MAVEN scientists had been alerted to the likely CME-Mars encounter by a space weather prediction system that had its origins in space weather forecasting for Earth but now forecasts space weather for Earth's neighboring planets. The two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft and Solar Heliospheric Observatory observed a CME on 26 September, with a trajectory that suggested a Mars intercept. A computer model developed for solar wind prediction, the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil cone model [e.g., Zheng et al., 2013; Parsons et al., 2011], running in real time at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) located at NASA Goddard since 2006, showed the CME propagating in the direction of Mars (Figure 1). According to MAVEN particle detectors, the disturbance and accompanying SEP enhancement at the leading edge of the CME reached Mars at approximately 17 hours Universal Time on 29 September 2014. Such SEPs may have a profound effect on atmospheric escape - they are believed to be a possible means for driving atmospheric loss. SEPs can cause loss of Mars' upper atmosphere through several loss mechanisms including sputtering of the atmosphere. Sputtering occurs when atoms are ejected from the atmosphere due to impacts with energetic particles.

  5. Sol-Terra - AN Operational Space Weather Forecasting Model Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bisi, M. M.; Lawrence, G.; Pidgeon, A.; Reid, S.; Hapgood, M. A.; Bogdanova, Y.; Byrne, J.; Marsh, M. S.; Jackson, D.; Gibbs, M.

    2015-12-01

    The SOL-TERRA project is a collaboration between RHEA Tech, the Met Office, and RAL Space funded by the UK Space Agency. The goal of the SOL-TERRA project is to produce a Roadmap for a future coupled Sun-to-Earth operational space weather forecasting system covering domains from the Sun down to the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere and neutral atmosphere. The first stage of SOL-TERRA is underway and involves reviewing current models that could potentially contribute to such a system. Within a given domain, the various space weather models will be assessed how they could contribute to such a coupled system. This will be done both by reviewing peer reviewed papers, and via direct input from the model developers to provide further insight. Once the models have been reviewed then the optimal set of models for use in support of forecast-based SWE modelling will be selected, and a Roadmap for the implementation of an operational forecast-based SWE modelling framework will be prepared. The Roadmap will address the current modelling capability, knowledge gaps and further work required, and also the implementation and maintenance of the overall architecture and environment that the models will operate within. The SOL-TERRA project will engage with external stakeholders in order to ensure independently that the project remains on track to meet its original objectives. A group of key external stakeholders have been invited to provide their domain-specific expertise in reviewing the SOL-TERRA project at critical stages of Roadmap preparation; namely at the Mid-Term Review, and prior to submission of the Final Report. This stakeholder input will ensure that the SOL-TERRA Roadmap will be enhanced directly through the input of modellers and end-users. The overall goal of the SOL-TERRA project is to develop a Roadmap for an operational forecast-based SWE modelling framework with can be implemented within a larger subsequent activity. The SOL-TERRA project is supported within

  6. Ionospheric forecasts for the European region for space weather applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsagouri, Ioanna; Belehaki, Anna

    2015-04-01

    This paper discusses recent advances in the implementation and validation of the Solar Wind driven autoregression model for Ionospheric short-term Forecast (SWIF) that is running in the European Digital upper Atmosphere Server (DIAS) to release ionospheric forecasting products for the European region. The upgraded implementation plan expands SWIF's capabilities in the high latitude ionosphere while the extensive validation tests in the two solar cycles 23 and 24 allow the comprehensive analysis of the model's performance in all terms. Focusing on disturbed conditions, the results demonstrate that SWIF's alert detection algorithm forecasts the occurrence of ionospheric storm time disturbances with probability of detection up to 98% under intense geomagnetic storm conditions and up to 63% when storms of moderate intensity are also considered. The forecasts show relative improvement over climatology of about 30% in middle-to-low and high latitudes and 40% in middle-to-high latitudes. This indicates that SWIF is able to capture on average more than one third (35%) of the storm-associated ionospheric disturbances. Regarding the accuracy, the averaged mean relative error during storm conditions usually ranges around 20% in middle-to-low and high latitudes and 24% in the middle-to-high latitudes. Our analysis shows clearly that SWIF alert criteria were designed to effectively anticipate the ionospheric storm time effects that occurred under specific interplanetary conditions, e.g., cloud Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) and/or associated sheaths. The results provide valuable input in advancing our ability in predicting the space weather effects in the ionosphere for future developments, and further work is proposed to enhance the model forecasting efficiency to support operational applications.

  7. Generation of a Solar Wind Ensemble for Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hassan, E.; Morley, S.; Steinberg, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    Knowing the upstream solar wind conditions is essential in forecasting the variations in the geomangetic field and the status of the Earth's ionosphere. Most data-driven simulations or data-assimilation codes, used for space weather forecasting, are based on the solar wind measurements at 1 AU, or more specifically at the first Lagrangian orbit (L1), such as observations from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). However, L1 measurements may not represent the solar wind conditions just outside the magnetosphere. As a result, time-series measurements from L1 by themselves are not adequate to run simulations to derive probabilistic forecasts of the magnetosphere and ionosphere. To obtain confidence levels and uncertainty estimates, a solar wind ensemble data set is desirable. Therefore we used three years of measurements atACE advected using the flat delay method to the Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP8) spacecraft location. Then, we compared both measurements to establish Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) functions for IMP8 measurements based on ACE measurements. In addition, we used a 4-categorization scheme to sort the incoming solar wind into ejecta, coronal-hole-origin, sector-reversal-regions, and streamer-belt-origin categories at both ACE and IMP8. We established the KDE functions for each category and compared with the uncategorized KDE functions. The location of the IMP8 spacecraft allows us to use these KDE functions to generate ensemble of solar wind data close to Earth's magnetopause. The ensemble can then be used to forecast the state of the geomagnetic field and the ionosphere.

  8. Space Weather Forecasting and Research at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aronne, M.

    2015-12-01

    The Space Weather Research Center (SWRC), within the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), provides experimental research forecasts and analysis for NASA's robotic mission operators. Space weather conditions are monitored to provide advance warning and forecasts based on observations and modeling using the integrated Space Weather Analysis Network (iSWA). Space weather forecasters come from a variety of backgrounds, ranging from modelers to astrophysicists to undergraduate students. This presentation will discuss space weather operations and research from an undergraduate perspective. The Space Weather Research, Education, and Development Initiative (SW REDI) is the starting point for many undergraduate opportunities in space weather forecasting and research. Space weather analyst interns play an active role year-round as entry-level space weather analysts. Students develop the technical and professional skills to forecast space weather through a summer internship that includes a two week long space weather boot camp, mentorship, poster session, and research opportunities. My unique development of research projects includes studying high speed stream events as well as a study of 20 historic, high-impact solar energetic particle events. This unique opportunity to combine daily real-time analysis with related research prepares students for future careers in Heliophysics.

  9. Monitoring and Forecasting Space Weather in Geospace Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lyatsky, Wladislaw; Khazanov, George V.

    2008-01-01

    For improving the reliability of Space Weather prediction, we developed a new, Polar Magnetic (PM) index of geomagnetic activity, which shows high correlation with both upstream solar wind data and related events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. Similarly to the existing polar cap PC index, the new PM index was computed from data from two near-pole geomagnetic observatories; however, the method for computing the PM index is different. The high correlation of the PM index with both solar wind data and events in Geospace environment makes possible to improve significantly forecasting geomagnetic disturbances and such important parameters as the cross-polar-cap voltage and global Joule heating, which play an important role in the development of geomagnetic, ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances. We tested the PM index for 10-year period (1995-2004). The correlation between PM index and upstream solar wind data for these years is very high (the average correlation coefficient R approximately equal to 0.86). The PM index also shows the high correlation with the cross-polar-cap voltage and hemispheric Joule heating (the correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values of these parameters approximately equal to 0.9), which results in significant increasing the prediction reliability of these parameters. Using the PM index of geomagnetic activity provides a significant increase in the forecasting reliability of geomagnetic disturbances and related events in Geospace environment. The PM index may be also used as an important input parameter in modeling ionospheric, magnetospheric, and thermospheric processes.

  10. Improvement of Space Weather Forecasting in Solar Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nitta, N.

    2014-12-01

    Solar Cycle 24 has not produced extreme space weather events at Earthcomparable to the Halloween 2003 events. However, there have been anumber of geomagnetic storms more intense than Dst of 100 nT as wellas several major solar energetic particle (SEP) events at Earth.Before predicting geomagnetic storms and radiation storms well inadvance, it is necessary to make a firm link of solar activity,notably coronal mass ejections (CMEs), with interplanetary CMEs(ICMEs) and shock waves. This cycle has benefitted from the SolarDynamics Observatory that provides uninterrupted and high-qualityfull-disk images at Earth, and the Solar Terrestrial RelationsObservatory that has observed CMEs away from the Sun-Earth line andunambiguously isolated those that were directed toward Earth. Thispresentation aims at evaluating how these observations have refinedour understanding of the origins of ICMEs and helped models reproducethe arrival times of the disturbances and the occurrence and magnitudeof SEP events. We also discuss what may be critically missing and yetessential for achieving useful predictions in the future. A review isgiven as to how the forecasts on the basis of solar and near-Sunobservations have fared against the actual ICMEs and shocks, and howmany of the latter have not been properly handled because of noobvious CMEs. A similar attempt is made for the occurrence andmagnitude of SEP events. It is important to critically analyze theinadequate forecasts (or just expectations) in terms of uncertaintiesfrom observations and modeling.

  11. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  12. Tools and Products of Real-Time Modeling: Opportunities for Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael

    2009-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second CCMC activity is to support Space Weather forecasting at national Space Weather Forecasting Centers. This second activity involves model evaluations, model transitions to operations, and the development of draft Space Weather forecasting tools. This presentation will focus on the last element. Specifically, we will discuss present capabilities, and the potential to derive further tools. These capabilities will be interpreted in the context of a broad-based, bootstrapping activity for modern Space Weather forecasting.

  13. Cone Model for Halo CMEs: Application to Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xie, Hong; Ofman, Leon; Lawrence, Gareth

    2004-01-01

    In this study, we present an innovative analytical method to determine the angular width and propagation orientation of halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The relation of CME actual speed with apparent speed and its components measured at different position angle has been investigated. The present work is based on the cone model proposed by Zhao et al. We have improved this model by: (1) eliminating the ambiguity via a new analytical approach, (2) using direct measurements of projection onto the plane of the sky (POS), and (3) determining the actual radial speeds from projection speeds at different position angles to clarify the uncertainty of projection speeds in previous empirical models. Our analytical approach allows us to use coronagraph data to determine accurately the geometrical features of POS projections, such as major axis, minor axis, and the displacement of the center of its projection, and to determine the angular width and orientation of a given halo CME. Our approach allows for the first time the determination of the actual CME speed, width, and source location by using coronagraph data quantitatively and consistently. The method greatly enhances the accuracy of the derived geometrical and kinematical properties of halo CMEs, and can be used to optimize Space Weather forecasts. The applied model predications are in good agreement with observations.

  14. Space Weather Education: Learning to Forecast at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wold, A.

    2015-12-01

    Enhancing space weather education is important to space science endeavors. While participating in the Space Weather Research, Education and Development Initiative (SW REDI) Bootcamp and working as a Space Weather Analyst Intern, several innovative technologies and tools were integral to my learning and understanding of space weather analysis and forecasting. Two of the tools utilized in learning about space weather were the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA) and the Space Weather Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (DONKI). iSWA, a web-based dissemination system, hosts many state-of-the-art space weather models as well as real time space weather data from spacecraft such as Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Advanced Composition Explorer. As a customizable tool that operates in real-time while providing access also to historical data, iSWA proved essential in my understanding the drivers and impacts of space weather. DONKI was instrumental in accessing historical space weather events to understand the connections between solar phenomena and their effects on Earth environments. DONKI operates as a database of space weather events including linkages between causes and effects of space weather events. iSWA and DONKI are tools available also to the public. They not only enrich the space weather learning process but also allow researchers and model developers access to essential heliophysics and magnetospheric data.

  15. Evaluating space weather forecasts of geomagnetic activity from a user perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomson, A. W. P.

    2000-12-01

    Decision Theory can be used as a tool for discussing the relative costs of complacency and false alarms with users of space weather forecasts. We describe a new metric for the value of space weather forecasts, derived from Decision Theory. In particular we give equations for the level of accuracy that a forecast must exceed in order to be useful to a specific customer. The technique is illustrated by simplified example forecasts for global geomagnetic activity and for geophysical exploration and power grid management in the British Isles.

  16. State-of-the-art Space Weather Forecast with AFFECTS and HELCATS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bothmer, Volker; Affects Team; Helcats Team

    2016-04-01

    The space weather projects fostered through the European Union FP7 and Horizon 2020 programs have opened up new horizons in the field of space weather research and have facilitated state-of-the-art-forecasts. Here we present an overview on the services and space weather forecasts the EU FP7 project AFFECTS (Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communications Through Space) is providing and how the precision of the forecast is qualitatively greatly enhanced by new results derived from the EU FP7 project HELCATS (Heliospheric Cataloguing, Analysis, and Techniques Services). The forecast techniques base on near-real time multipoint analysis of coronal mass ejections observed by SOHO and STEREO and simulations of their Sun to Earth evolution.

  17. Activities of the Japanese space weather forecast center at Communications Research Laboratory.

    PubMed

    Watari, Shinichi; Tomita, Fumihiko

    2002-12-01

    The International Space Environment Service (ISES) is an international organization for space weather forecasts and belongs to the International Union of Radio Science (URSI). There are eleven ISES forecast centers in the world, and Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) runs the Japanese one. We make forecasts on the space environment and deliver them over the phones and through the Internet. Our forecasts could be useful for human activities in space. Currently solar activity is near maximum phase of the solar cycle 23. We report the several large disturbances of space environment occurred in 2001, during which low-latitude auroras were observed several times in Japan. PMID:12793730

  18. Activities of the Japanese space weather forecast center at Communications Research Laboratory.

    PubMed

    Watari, Shinichi; Tomita, Fumihiko

    2002-12-01

    The International Space Environment Service (ISES) is an international organization for space weather forecasts and belongs to the International Union of Radio Science (URSI). There are eleven ISES forecast centers in the world, and Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) runs the Japanese one. We make forecasts on the space environment and deliver them over the phones and through the Internet. Our forecasts could be useful for human activities in space. Currently solar activity is near maximum phase of the solar cycle 23. We report the several large disturbances of space environment occurred in 2001, during which low-latitude auroras were observed several times in Japan.

  19. Using Science Data and Models for Space Weather Forecasting - Challenges and Opportunities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael; Pulkkinen, Antti; Zheng, Yihua; Maddox, Marlo; Berrios, David; Taktakishvili, Sandro; Kuznetsova, Masha; Chulaki, Anna; Lee, Hyesook; Mullinix, Rick; Rastaetter, Lutz

    2012-01-01

    Space research, and, consequently, space weather forecasting are immature disciplines. Scientific knowledge is accumulated frequently, which changes our understanding or how solar eruptions occur, and of how they impact targets near or on the Earth, or targets throughout the heliosphere. Along with continuous progress in understanding, space research and forecasting models are advancing rapidly in capability, often providing substantially increases in space weather value over time scales of less than a year. Furthermore, the majority of space environment information available today is, particularly in the solar and heliospheric domains, derived from research missions. An optimal forecasting environment needs to be flexible enough to benefit from this rapid development, and flexible enough to adapt to evolving data sources, many of which may also stem from non-US entities. This presentation will analyze the experiences obtained by developing and operating both a forecasting service for NASA, and an experimental forecasting system for Geomagnetically Induced Currents.

  20. A Space Weather Forecasting System with Multiple Satellites Based on a Self-Recognizing Network

    PubMed Central

    Tokumitsu, Masahiro; Ishida, Yoshiteru

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a space weather forecasting system at geostationary orbit for high-energy electron flux (>2 MeV). The forecasting model involves multiple sensors on multiple satellites. The sensors interconnect and evaluate each other to predict future conditions at geostationary orbit. The proposed forecasting model is constructed using a dynamic relational network for sensor diagnosis and event monitoring. The sensors of the proposed model are located at different positions in space. The satellites for solar monitoring equip with monitoring devices for the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind speed. The satellites orbit near the Earth monitoring high-energy electron flux. We investigate forecasting for typical two examples by comparing the performance of two models with different numbers of sensors. We demonstrate the prediction by the proposed model against coronal mass ejections and a coronal hole. This paper aims to investigate a possibility of space weather forecasting based on the satellite network with in-situ sensing. PMID:24803190

  1. Cosmic Rays and Space Weather Effects: Methods of Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorman, L. I.

    2008-09-01

    This paper consists of 5 parts: 1. Cosmic rays (CR) and space weather influence on global climate change; 2. Global natural disaster from great magnetic storms connected with big CR Forbush-decreases and their assessment by using world-wide network of CR stations; 3. Global natural disaster from great intense radiation hazards for astronauts, crew and passengers on regular airline flights, for people on the ground due to great solar flare CR events; 4. The great hazard for the Earth's civilization from the interaction of a dust-molecular cloud with the Solar system; 5. Great radiation hazard for the Earth's civilization from CR particles generated in a nearby Supernova Explosion.

  2. The scientific challenges to forecasting and nowcasting the magnetospheric response to space weather (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Birn, J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.

    2013-12-01

    Space weather is different from terrestrial weather in an essential way. Terrestrial weather has benefitted from a long history of research, which has led to a deep and detailed level of understanding. In comparison, space weather is scientifically in its infancy. Many key processes in the causal chains from processes on the Sun to space weather effects in various locations in the heliosphere remain either poorly understood or not understood at all. Space weather is therefore, and will remain in the foreseeable future, primarily a research field. Extensive further research efforts are needed before we can reasonably expect the precision and fidelity of weather forecasts. For space weather within the Earth's magnetosphere, the coupling between solar wind and magnetosphere is of crucial importance. While past research has provided answers, often on qualitative levels, to some of the most fundamental questions, answers to some of the latter and the ability to predict quantitatively remain elusive. This presentation will provide an overview of pertinent aspects of solar wind-magnetospheric coupling, its importance for space weather near the Earth, and it will analyze the state of our ability to describe and predict its efficiency. It will conclude with a discussion of research activities, which are aimed at improving our ability to quantitatively forecast coupling processes.

  3. On the possibility of getting economically sound forecasts of rare space weather events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burov, V. A.

    There is a problem of setting criteria of space weather forecast quality that allows estimation of the economic effectiveness of forecasts in comparison with other methods for real users. The overwhelming majority of such users (airlines, power lines, pipelines, space exploration, navigation, ground-induced currents, medical services, etc.), are primarily interested in large space weather disturbances that affect the operation of their systems. But powerful disturbances happen rather seldom and so the traditional criteria of quality estimation give very little useful information for an estimate of economic effectiveness of the forecast. This work proposes a specially constructed value “A” for every customer (task) and for each method (or kind) of the forecast, which allows the estimation of the comparative economic effectiveness. Special attention is paid to the statistical significance in reference to the cyclic nature of the solar activity, and there are also indicated some numeral limits, which have to be considered during such a check.

  4. A NOAA/SWPC Perspective on Space Weather Forecasts That Fail

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biesecker, D. A.

    2014-12-01

    The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) at NOAA is the Official US source for space weather watches, warning and alerts. These alerts are provided to a breadth of customers covering a range of industries, including electric utilities, airlines, emergency managers, and users of precision GPS to name a few. This talk will review the current tools used by SWPC to forecast geomagnetic storms, solar flares, and solar energetic particle events and present the SWPC performance in each of these areas. We will include a discussion of the current limitations and examples of events that proved difficult to forecast.

  5. Models and applications for space weather forecasting and analysis at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuznetsova, Maria

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) was established at the dawn of the new millennium as a long-term flexible solution to the problem of transition of progress in space environment modeling to operational space weather forecasting. CCMC hosts an expanding collection of state-of-the-art space weather models developed by the international space science community. Over the years the CCMC acquired the unique experience in preparing complex models and model chains for operational environment and developing and maintaining custom displays and powerful web-based systems and tools ready to be used by researchers, space weather service providers and decision makers. In support of space weather needs of NASA users CCMC is developing highly-tailored applications and services that target specific orbits or locations in space and partnering with NASA mission specialists on linking CCMC space environment modeling with impacts on biological and technological systems in space. Confidence assessment of model predictions is an essential element of space environment modeling. CCMC facilitates interaction between model owners and users in defining physical parameters and metrics formats relevant to specific applications and leads community efforts to quantify models ability to simulate and predict space environment events. Interactive on-line model validation systems developed at CCMC make validation a seamless part of model development circle. The talk will showcase innovative solutions for space weather research, validation, anomaly analysis and forecasting and review on-going community-wide model validation initiatives enabled by CCMC applications.

  6. The Art and Science of Long-Range Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.

    2006-01-01

    Long-range space weather forecasts are akin to seasonal forecasts of terrestrial weather. We don t expect to forecast individual events but we do hope to forecast the underlying level of activity important for satellite operations and mission pl&g. Forecasting space weather conditions years or decades into the future has traditionally been based on empirical models of the solar cycle. Models for the shape of the cycle as a function of its amplitude become reliable once the amplitude is well determined - usually two to three years after minimum. Forecasting the amplitude of a cycle well before that time has been more of an art than a science - usually based on cycle statistics and trends. Recent developments in dynamo theory -the theory explaining the generation of the Sun s magnetic field and the solar activity cycle - have now produced models with predictive capabilities. Testing these models with historical sunspot cycle data indicates that these predictions may be highly reliable one, or even two, cycles into the future.

  7. A New Tool for Forecasting Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, J. H.; Falconer, D.; Barghouty, A. F.; Khazanov, I.; Moore, R.

    2010-01-01

    This poster describes a tool that is designed to forecast solar drivers for severe space weather. Since most severe space weather is driven by Solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) - the strongest of these originate in active regions and are driven by the release of coronal free magnetic energy and There is a positive correlation between an active region's free magnetic energy and the likelihood of flare and CME production therefore we can use this positive correlation as the basis of our empirical space weather forecasting tool. The new tool takes a full disk Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) magnetogram, identifies strong magnetic field areas, identifies these with NOAA active regions, and measures a free-magnetic-energy proxy. It uses an empirically derived forecasting function to convert the free-magnetic-energy proxy to an expected event rate. It adds up the expected event rates from all active regions on the disk to forecast the expected rate and probability of each class of events -- X-class flares, X&M class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar particle events (SPEs).

  8. Strategies and Innovative Approaches for the Future of Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoeksema, J. T.

    2012-12-01

    The real and potential impacts of space weather have been well documented, yet neither the required research and operations programs, nor the data, modeling and analysis infrastructure necessary to develop and sustain a reliable space weather forecasting capability for a society are in place. The recently published decadal survey "Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society" presents a vision for the coming decade and calls for a renewed national commitment to a comprehensive program in space weather and climatology. New resources are imperative. Particularly in the current fiscal environment, implementing a responsible strategy to address these needs will require broad participation across agencies and innovative approaches to make the most of existing resources, capitalize on current knowledge, span gaps in capabilities and observations, and focus resources on overcoming immediate roadblocks.

  9. Weather assessment and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    Data management program activities centered around the analyses of selected far-term Office of Applications (OA) objectives, with the intent of determining if significant data-related problems would be encountered and if so what alternative solutions would be possible. Three far-term (1985 and beyond) OA objectives selected for analyses as having potential significant data problems were large-scale weather forecasting, local weather and severe storms forecasting, and global marine weather forecasting. An overview of general weather forecasting activities and their implications upon the ground based data system is provided. Selected topics were specifically oriented to the use of satellites.

  10. A space weather forecasting system with multiple satellites based on a self-recognizing network.

    PubMed

    Tokumitsu, Masahiro; Ishida, Yoshiteru

    2014-05-05

    This paper proposes a space weather forecasting system at geostationary orbit for high-energy electron flux (>2 MeV). The forecasting model involves multiple sensors on multiple satellites. The sensors interconnect and evaluate each other to predict future conditions at geostationary orbit. The proposed forecasting model is constructed using a dynamic relational network for sensor diagnosis and event monitoring. The sensors of the proposed model are located at different positions in space. The satellites for solar monitoring equip with monitoring devices for the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind speed. The satellites orbit near the Earth monitoring high-energy electron flux. We investigate forecasting for typical two examples by comparing the performance of two models with different numbers of sensors. We demonstrate the prediction by the proposed model against coronal mass ejections and a coronal hole. This paper aims to investigate a possibility of space weather forecasting based on the satellite network with in-situ sensing.

  11. Hit Rate of Space Weather Forecasts of the Japanese Forecast Center and Analysis of Problematic Events on the Forecasts between June 2014 and March 2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watari, S.; Kato, H.; Yamamoto, K.

    2015-12-01

    The hit rate of space weather forecasts issued by the Japanese forecast center in the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT) between June 2014 and March 2015 are compared with that by the persistence method. It is shown that the hit rate of the forecasts by the Japanese center is better than that by the persistence method. Several problematic events on the space weather forecasts during the same period are analyzed. Those events are (1) geomagnetic storms associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on 9 September 2014 and on 15 March 2015 with different durations of southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), (2) a large active region, AR 12192 without CMEs, solar energetic particle events, and geomagnetic storms, (3) a geomagnetic storm on 7 January 2015 caused by a faint CME, and (4) disagreement between the in-situ observation at 1 AU and the prediction of the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model on timing of sector crossing in January 2015.

  12. Development of a real-time geospace simulator for space weather forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shinagawa, H.; Shimazu, H.; Fujita, S.; Tanaka, T.; Terada, N.; Nakamura, M.; Obara, T.

    Space weather forecast requires real-time numerical models along with various real-time observational data on the ground and in space Real-time numerical models not only give present information on the space environment but also predict upcoming space weather disturbances Recently a real-time global MHD model of the solar wind interaction with the earth s magnetosphere has been developed by National Institute of Information and Communications Technology NICT in collaboration with Kyushu University The model is now operated at the NICT s space weather forecast center to understand present state of the magnetospheric environment and to predict magnetic disturbances However the present real-time model has not satisfactorily included particle effects on the space environment and realistic ionosphere and thermosphere High-energy particles could damage satellite instruments and human bodies in space while ionospheric storms could affect various communication and broadcasting systems Therefore it is important to develop a numerical model which is able to predict such disturbances We have started to improve our real-time magnetospheric model by including the particle effects as well as the ionosphere-thermosphere system We will describe the current status and future prospect of the real-time geospace model

  13. Integration between solar and space science data for space weather forecast using web services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, S.

    2007-08-01

    As the technology develops, the opportunity that the human beings behave in space, and it is still understood that the solar activities (especially the solar flare) influence the airlines communication, the ship communication and the power generator of the electric power company, etc. Forecasting the effects of the solar activities is becoming very important because there is such a background. Our goal is that constructs the detailed model from the Sun to the magnetosphere of the earth and simulates the solar activities and the effects. We try to integrate the existing observational data including the ground observational data and satellite observational data using by web service technology as a base to construct the model. We introduce our activity to combine the solar and space science data in Japan. Methods Generally, it is difficult to develop the virtual common database, but web service makes interconnection among different databases comparatively easy. We try to connect some databases in the portal site. Each different data objects is aggregated to a common data object. We can develop more complex services. We use RELAX NG in order to develop these applications easily. We begin the trial of the interconnection among the solar and space science data in Japan. In the case of solar observational data, we find the activity such as VO, for example, VSO and EGSO, but space science data seems to be very complex. In addition to this, there is time lag that solar activity has an effect on the magnetosphere of the Earth. We discuss these characteristic in the data analysis between the solar and space data. This work was supported by the Grant-in-Aid for Creative Scientific Research `The Basic Study of Space Weather Prediction' (17GS0208) from the Ministry of Education, Science, Sports, Technology, and Culture of Japan

  14. Ensemble Modeling with Data Assimilation Models: A New Strategy for Space Weather Science, Specifications and Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schunk, R. W.; Scherliess, L.; Eccles, J. V.; Gardner, L. C.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.; Pi, X.; Mannucci, A.; Wilson, B. D.; Komjathy, A.; Wang, C.; Rosen, G.; Tobiska, W.; Schaefer, R. K.; Paxton, L. J.

    2012-12-01

    The Earth's Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics (I-T-E) system varies markedly on a range of spatial and temporal scales and these variations can have adverse effects on human operations and systems. Consequently, there is a need to both mitigate and forecast near-Earth space weather. Following the meteorologists, our goal is to specify and forecast the global I-T-E system with data assimilation models, because they are reliable and the models are already available. Currently, our team has first-principles-based data assimilation models for the ionosphere, ionosphere-plasmasphere, thermosphere, high-latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics, and mid-low latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics. These models assimilate a myriad of different ground- and space-based observations, and there are several data assimilation models for each near-Earth space domain. This enables us to conduct Multimodel Ensemble Data Assimilation of the I-T-E system that can account for different physical modeling assumptions, numerical techniques, and model initialization approaches. The application of ensemble modeling with several different data assimilation models will lead to a paradigm shift in how basic physical processes are studied in near-Earth space, and it should also lead to a significant advance space weather forecasting.

  15. The Space Weather Modeling System: An ESMF Compliant Solar Wind and Ionospheric Forecast System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reich, J. P.; Fry, C. D.; Eccles, J. V.; Berman, L. M.; Sattler, M. P.

    2008-12-01

    Ionospheric storms can severely impact communications, navigation and surveillance systems. These ionospheric disturbances are driven by solar activity. A key challenge in space science is to understand the causes of the ionospheric response to solar forcing. Attempting to accurately forecast the time-dependent behavior of the ionosphere is the only way to truly test our understanding of the ionosphere. Space weather forecasters for the DoD face this challenge on a daily basis. The Air Force Weather Agency is meeting this challenge through the development of an operational Space Weather Modeling System (SWMS). The SWMS is a Battlespace Environments Institute (BEI) project that couples Earth system environmental models together under the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). BEI is sponsored by the High Performance Computing (HPC) Modernization Office. The first two coupled components in SWMS are the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 (HAFv2) solar wind model and the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) model. The HAFv2 model produces quantitative forecasts of solar wind parameters at Earth and elsewhere in the inner heliosphere. The Ionosphere Forecast Model (IFM) is the physics-based ionosphere model within GAIM. IFM provides highly representative specifications of plasma conditions in the global ionosphere. The one-way coupling of HAFv2 to IFM links the solar storm drivers to the ionospheric response. Predicted solar wind quantities are fed as inputs to IFM, which computes the solar wind energy deposition into the high latitude ionosphere, enabling GAIM to provide multi- day forecasts of ionospheric electron density, currents and upper atmosphere dynamics. The SWMS development is a structured project, moving from partial to full ESMF compliance. Bringing the HAFv2 and IFM models into the ESMF allows significant improvements in computational efficiency and data throughput. Modifying these computer codes for the HPC environment opens the door for

  16. Smooth Sailing for Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Through a cooperative venture with NASA's Stennis Space Center, WorldWinds, Inc., developed a unique weather and wave vector map using space-based radar satellite information and traditional weather observations. Called WorldWinds, the product provides accurate, near real-time, high-resolution weather forecasts. It was developed for commercial and scientific users. In addition to weather forecasting, the product's applications include maritime and terrestrial transportation, aviation operations, precision farming, offshore oil and gas operations, and coastal hazard response support. Target commercial markets include the operational maritime and aviation communities, oil and gas providers, and recreational yachting interests. Science applications include global long-term prediction and climate change, land-cover and land-use change, and natural hazard issues. Commercial airlines have expressed interest in the product, as it can provide forecasts over remote areas. WorldWinds, Inc., is currently providing its product to commercial weather outlets.

  17. Resilient Sensor Networks with Spatiotemporal Interpolation of Missing Sensors: An Example of Space Weather Forecasting by Multiple Satellites

    PubMed Central

    Tokumitsu, Masahiro; Hasegawa, Keisuke; Ishida, Yoshiteru

    2016-01-01

    This paper attempts to construct a resilient sensor network model with an example of space weather forecasting. The proposed model is based on a dynamic relational network. Space weather forecasting is vital for a satellite operation because an operational team needs to make a decision for providing its satellite service. The proposed model is resilient to failures of sensors or missing data due to the satellite operation. In the proposed model, the missing data of a sensor is interpolated by other sensors associated. This paper demonstrates two examples of space weather forecasting that involves the missing observations in some test cases. In these examples, the sensor network for space weather forecasting continues a diagnosis by replacing faulted sensors with virtual ones. The demonstrations showed that the proposed model is resilient against sensor failures due to suspension of hardware failures or technical reasons. PMID:27092508

  18. Resilient Sensor Networks with Spatiotemporal Interpolation of Missing Sensors: An Example of Space Weather Forecasting by Multiple Satellites.

    PubMed

    Tokumitsu, Masahiro; Hasegawa, Keisuke; Ishida, Yoshiteru

    2016-04-15

    This paper attempts to construct a resilient sensor network model with an example of space weather forecasting. The proposed model is based on a dynamic relational network. Space weather forecasting is vital for a satellite operation because an operational team needs to make a decision for providing its satellite service. The proposed model is resilient to failures of sensors or missing data due to the satellite operation. In the proposed model, the missing data of a sensor is interpolated by other sensors associated. This paper demonstrates two examples of space weather forecasting that involves the missing observations in some test cases. In these examples, the sensor network for space weather forecasting continues a diagnosis by replacing faulted sensors with virtual ones. The demonstrations showed that the proposed model is resilient against sensor failures due to suspension of hardware failures or technical reasons.

  19. Resilient Sensor Networks with Spatiotemporal Interpolation of Missing Sensors: An Example of Space Weather Forecasting by Multiple Satellites.

    PubMed

    Tokumitsu, Masahiro; Hasegawa, Keisuke; Ishida, Yoshiteru

    2016-01-01

    This paper attempts to construct a resilient sensor network model with an example of space weather forecasting. The proposed model is based on a dynamic relational network. Space weather forecasting is vital for a satellite operation because an operational team needs to make a decision for providing its satellite service. The proposed model is resilient to failures of sensors or missing data due to the satellite operation. In the proposed model, the missing data of a sensor is interpolated by other sensors associated. This paper demonstrates two examples of space weather forecasting that involves the missing observations in some test cases. In these examples, the sensor network for space weather forecasting continues a diagnosis by replacing faulted sensors with virtual ones. The demonstrations showed that the proposed model is resilient against sensor failures due to suspension of hardware failures or technical reasons. PMID:27092508

  20. Application of a new phenomenological coronal mass ejection model to space weather forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howard, T. A.; Tappin, S. J.

    2010-07-01

    Recent work by the authors has produced a new phenomenological model for coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This model, called the Tappin-Howard (TH) Model, takes advantage of the breakdown of geometrical linearity when CMEs are observed by white-light imagers at large distances from the Sun. The model extracts 3-D structure and kinematic information on the CME using heliospheric image data. This can estimate arrival times of the CME at 1 AU and impact likelihood with the Earth. Hence the model can be used for space weather forecasting. We present a preliminary evaluation of this potential with three mock trial forecasts performed using the TH Model. These are already-studied events from 2003, 2004 and 2007 but we performed the trials assuming that they were observed for the first time. The earliest prediction was made 17 hours before impact and predicted arrival times reached differences within one hour for at least one forecast for all three events. The most accurate predicted arrival time was 15 min from the actual, and all three events reach accuracies of the order of 30 min. Arrival speeds were predicted to be very similar to the bulk plasma speed within the CME near 1 AU for each event, with the largest difference around 300 km/s and the least 40 km/s. The model showed great potential and we aspire to fully validate it for integration with existing tools for space weather forecasting.

  1. Geomagnetic Activity Forecasting Using Self-Learning Algorithms: Application in Space Weather Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khalil, A. F.; Barakat, A. R.; McKee, M.

    2005-05-01

    The ability to forecast the geomagnetic activities is becoming more important as human activity in space becomes more prevalent. For example, early warning of geomagnetic storms could help mitigate their harmful effects on space electronics and on electrical power lines. Moreover, recently developed space weather algorithms that utilize physics-based models require future values of Kp as an input in order to forecast the ionospheric behavior. Computational learning theory and data-driven modeling techniques are new and rapidly expanding areas of research that aim at developing efficient learning algorithms. Here we compare self-learning algorithms regarding their abilities to forecast the level of geomagnetic activities, as represented by Kp. In particular, we consider the following algorithms: artificial neural networks, locally weighted projection regression, support vector machines, and relevance vector machines. Different parameters are considered such as: (1) length of forecasting time, (2) type and size of input data, and (3) training set size. These learning machines are compared regarding their generalization capabilities and structure reliabilities. The relative strengths and limitations of these algorithms will be presented.

  2. Post Alpbach-summerschool project: CARRINGTON MISSION FOR CME DETECTION TO IMPROVE SPACE WEATHER FORECAST

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheucher, Markus; Urbar, Jaroslav; Musset, Sophie; Andersson, Viktor; Gini, Francesco; Gorski, Jedrzej; Jüstel, Peter; Kiefer, René; Lee, Arrow; Meskers, Arjan; Miles, Oscar; Perakis, Nikolas; Rußwurm, Michael; Scully, Stephen; Seifert, Bernhard; Sorba, Arianna

    2014-05-01

    The effects of solar activity, especially Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), on Earth- and satellite-based systems are well-known and can cause major damage to space-dependent infrastructure. The main problem in current space weather forecasting is the inability to determine necessary forecast parameters of CMEs and Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) early enough to react. We present the design for a novel space mission consisting of two spacecraft that is aimed to perform stereoscopic measurements on Earth-directed CMEs and in-situ measurements of CIRs. The magnetic field orientation and structure of CMEs will be measured close to the Sun, using spectro-polarimetry. Geoeffectiveness will be derived by remote sensing the CMEs magnetic field at 0.64AU from the Sun, determining the full magnetic field vector of a CME. This will be achieved by the novel concept of measuring its polarising effects on spacecraft to spacecraft laser beams based upon heterodyne interferometry. Overall structure and trajectory of CMEs will also be monitored by heliospheric imagers and in-situ plasma instruments. To achieve the mission objectives, the orbit is heliocentric at 1AU with a separation angle from the Earth of ±50°. The operational mission lifetime is 6 years with a proposed 6 year extension. If implemented, Carrington will serve as a forecast system which will significantly improve the minimum forecast time for the fastest CMEs with 2000 km/s, from 13 minutes based on current L1 satellites, to around 3 hours.

  3. Applying Forecast Models from the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gehmeyr, M.; Baker, D. N.; Millward, G.; Odstrcil, D.

    2007-12-01

    The Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) has developed three forecast models (FMs) for the Sun-Earth chain. They have been matured by various degrees toward the operational stage. The Sun-Earth FM suite comprises empirical and physical models: the Planetary Equivalent Amplitude (AP-FM), the Solar Wind (SW- FM), and the Geospace (GS-FM) models. We give a brief overview of these forecast models and touch briefly on the associated validation studies. We demonstrate the utility of the models: AP-FM supporting the operations of the AIM (Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere) mission soon after launch; SW-FM providing assistance with the interpretation of the STEREO beacon data; and GS-FM combining model and observed data to characterize the aurora borealis. We will then discuss space weather tools in a more general sense, point out where the current capabilities and shortcomings are, and conclude with a look forward to what areas need improvement to facilitate better real-time forecasts.

  4. Community Coordinated Modeling Center: Addressing Needs of Operational Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuznetsova, M.; Maddox, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Hesse, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Macneice, P.; Taktakishvili, A.; Berrios, D.; Chulaki, A.; Zheng, Y.; Mullinix, R.

    2012-01-01

    Models are key elements of space weather forecasting. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) hosts a broad range of state-of-the-art space weather models and enables access to complex models through an unmatched automated web-based runs-on-request system. Model output comparisons with observational data carried out by a large number of CCMC users open an unprecedented mechanism for extensive model testing and broad community feedback on model performance. The CCMC also evaluates model's prediction ability as an unbiased broker and supports operational model selections. The CCMC is organizing and leading a series of community-wide projects aiming to evaluate the current state of space weather modeling, to address challenges of model-data comparisons, and to define metrics for various user s needs and requirements. Many of CCMC models are continuously running in real-time. Over the years the CCMC acquired the unique experience in developing and maintaining real-time systems. CCMC staff expertise and trusted relations with model owners enable to keep up to date with rapid advances in model development. The information gleaned from the real-time calculations is tailored to specific mission needs. Model forecasts combined with data streams from NASA and other missions are integrated into an innovative configurable data analysis and dissemination system (http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov) that is accessible world-wide. The talk will review the latest progress and discuss opportunities for addressing operational space weather needs in innovative and collaborative ways.

  5. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark

    2005-01-01

    The Applied Meteorology Unit developed a forecast tool that provides an assessment of the likelihood of local convective severe weather for the day in order to enhance protection of personnel and material assets of the 45th Space Wing Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), and Kennedy Space Center (KSC).

  6. Demonstrating Advancements in 3D Analysis and Prediction Tools for Space Weather Forecasting utilizing the Enlil Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, J. J.; Elkington, S. R.; Schmitt, P.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Baker, D. N.

    2012-12-01

    Simulation models of the heliospheric and geospace environments can provide key insights into the geoeffective potential of solar disturbances such as Coronal Mass Ejections and High Speed Solar Wind Streams. Analysis and prediction tools for post processing and visualizing simulation results greatly enhance the utility of these models in aiding space weather forecasters to predict the terrestrial consequences of these events. The Center For Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) Knowledge Transfer (KT) group is making significant progress on an integrated post-processing and analysis and prediction tool based on the ParaView open source visualization application for space weather prediction. These tools will provide space weather forecasters with the ability to use 3D situational awareness of the solar wind, CME, and eventually the geospace environments. Current work focuses on bringing new 3D analysis and prediction tools for the Enlil heliospheric model to space weather forecasters. In this effort we present a ParaView-based model interface that will provide forecasters with an interactive system for analyzing complete 3D datasets from modern space weather models.

  7. Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with

  8. Forecasting ionospheric space weather with applications to satellite drag and radio wave communications and scintillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mannucci, Anthony J.; Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Verkhoglyadova, Olga P.; Meng, Xing; Pi, Xiaoqing; Kuang, Da; Wang, Chunming; Rosen, Gary; Ridley, Aaron; Lynch, Erin; Sharma, Surja; Manchester, Ward B.; van der Holst, Bart

    2015-04-01

    The development of quantitative models that describe physical processes from the solar corona to the Earth’s upper atmosphere opens the possibility of numerical space weather prediction with a lead-time of a few days. Forecasting solar wind-driven variability in the ionosphere and thermosphere poses especially stringent tests of our scientific understanding and modeling capabilities, in particular of coupling processes to regions above and below. We will describe our work with community models to develop upper atmosphere forecasts starting with the solar wind driver. A number of phenomena are relevant, including high latitude energy deposition, its impact on global thermospheric circulation patterns and composition, and global electrodynamics. Improved scientific understanding of this sun to Earth interaction ultimately leads to practical benefits. We will focus on two ways the upper atmosphere affects life on Earth: by changing satellite orbits, and by interfering with long-range radio communications. Challenges in forecasting these impacts will be addressed, with a particular emphasis on the physical bases for the impacts, and how they connect upstream to the sun and the heliosphere.

  9. Evaluation of Radiation Belt Space Weather Forecasts for Internal Charging Analyses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Minow, Joseph I.; Coffey, Victoria N.; Jun, Insoo; Garrett, Henry B.

    2007-01-01

    A variety of static electron radiation belt models, space weather prediction tools, and energetic electron datasets are used by spacecraft designers and operations support personnel as internal charging code inputs to evaluate electrostatic discharge risks in space systems due to exposure to relativistic electron environments. Evaluating the environment inputs is often accomplished by comparing whether the data set or forecast tool reliability predicts measured electron flux (or fluence over a given period) for some chosen period. While this technique is useful as a model metric, it does not provide the information necessary to evaluate whether short term deviances of the predicted flux is important in the charging evaluations. In this paper, we use a 1-D internal charging model to compute electric fields generated in insulating materials as a function of time when exposed to relativistic electrons in the Earth's magnetosphere. The resulting fields are assumed to represent the "true" electric fields and are compared with electric field values computed from relativistic electron environments derived from a variety of space environment and forecast tools. Deviances in predicted fields compared to the "true" fields which depend on insulator charging time constants will be evaluated as a potential metric for determining the importance of predicted and measured relativistic electron flux deviations over a range of time scales.

  10. RBSP Space Weather data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiss, M.; Fox, N. J.; Mauk, B. H.; Barnes, R. J.; Potter, M.; Romeo, G.; Smith, D.

    2012-12-01

    On August 23, 2012, NASA will launch two identical probes into the radiation belts to provide unprecedented insight into the physical processes and dynamics of near-Earth space. The RBSP mission in addition to the scientific data return, provides a 1Kbps real-time space weather broadcast data in support of real time space weather modeling, forecast and prediction efforts. Networks of ground stations have been identified to downlink the space weather data. The RBSP instrument suites have selected space weather data to be broadcast from their collected space data on board the spacecraft, a subset from measurements based on information normally available to the instrument. The data subset includes particle fluxes at a variety of energies, and magnetic and electric field data. This selected space weather data is broadcast at all times through the primary spacecraft science downlink antennas when an observatory is not in a primary mission-related ground contact. The collected data will resolve important scientific issues and help researchers develop and improve various models for the radiation belts that can be used by forecasters to predict space weather phenomena and alert astronauts and spacecraft operators to potential hazards. The near real-time data from RBSP will be available to monitor and analyze current environmental conditions, forecast natural environmental changes and support anomaly resolution. The space weather data will be available on the RBSP Science Gateway at http://athena.jhuapl.edu/ and will provide access to the space weather data received from the RBSP real-time space weather broadcast. The near real-time data will be calibrated and displayed on the web as soon as possible. The CCMC will ingest the RBSP space weather data into real-time models. The raw space weather data will be permanently archived at APL. This presentation will provide a first look at RBSP space weather data products.

  11. Development of an ionosphere-atmosphere coupled model for space weather forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shinagawa, Hiroyuki; Jin, Hidekatsu; Miyoshi, Yasunobu; Fujiwara, Hitoshi; Fujita, Shigeru; Tanaka, Takashi; Terada, Naoki; Terada, Kaori

    The solar-terrestrial system consists of the solar atmosphere, the solar wind, the magneto-sphere, the ionosphere, and the neutral atmosphere. Those regions have different physical characteristics with different temporal and spatial scales. In particular, the magnetosphere, the ionosphere, and the neutral atmosphere are strongly coupled with each other, and inter-action between the regions is nonlinear and extremely complicated. Even within each region, there are strong interactions between different physical processes. Furthermore, the geospace environment significantly varies as electromagnetic energy and particles from the sun vary. In order to quantitatively understand such a complicated system, it is necessary to model the entire region by including all fundamental processes self-consistently. Various types of global numerical models of the geospace have been constructed by many institutions in the world, and used to study and predict geospace disturbances. At the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT), real-time solar wind, magnetosphere, and ionosphere-thermosphere models have been developed and used for daily space weather forecast. However, recent observations of the ionosphere and the thermosphere have revealed that atmospheric waves generated in the lower atmosphere significantly influence the upper atmosphere, the ionosphere, and possibly the magnetosphere. In order to quantitatively study the effects of the lower atmosphere on the ionosphere, we have developed an ionosphere-atmosphere coupled model, which includes the whole neutral atmosphere and the ionosphere. It is planned that the model is coupled with our magnetosphere and solar MHD models, which will be used for space weather forecast. We will report the status and future plan of our ionosphere-atmosphere coupled modeling.

  12. Using Space Weather Forecast Tools for Understanding Planetary Magnetospheres: MESSENGER Experience Applied to MAVEN Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Daniel N.; Dewey, R. M.; Brain, D. A.; Jakosky, Bruce; Halekas, Jasper; Connerney, Jack; Odstrcil, Dusan; Mays, M. Leila; Luhmann, Janet

    2015-04-01

    The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL solar wind modeling tool has been used to calculate the values of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength (B), solar wind speed (V), density (n), ram pressure (~nV2), cross-magnetosphere electric field (VxB), Alfvén Mach number (MA), and other derived quantities of relevance for space weather purposes at Earth. Such parameters as solar wind dynamic pressure can be key for estimating the magnetopause standoff distance, as just one example. The interplanetary electric field drives many magnetospheric dynamical processes and can be compared with general magnetic activity indices and with the occurrence of energetic particle bursts within the Earth’s magnetosphere. Such parameters also serve as input to the global magnetohydrodynamic and kinetic magnetosphere models that are used to forecast magnetospheric and ionospheric processes. Such modeling done for Earth space weather forecasting has helped assess near-real-time magnetospheric behavior for MESSENGER at Mercury (as well as other mission analysis and Mercury ground-based observational campaigns). This solar-wind forcing knowledge has provided a crucial continuing step toward bringing heliospheric science expertise to bear on solar-planetary interaction studies. The experience gained from MESSENGER at Mercury is now being applied to the new observations from the MAVEN (Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution) mission at Mars. We compare the continuous WSA-ENLIL results derived from modeling to the MAVEN SWIA and MAG data from mid-December 2014 to the present time. This provides a broader contextual view of solar wind forcing at Mars and also allows a broader validation of the ENLIL model results throughout the inner heliosphere.

  13. A Low-Cost CubeSat Mission for Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balthazor, R. L.; McHarg, M. G.; Scherliess, L.; Schunk, R. W.; Hoeffner, Z.; Barnhart, D.; Brown, R.

    2013-12-01

    The best space weather specification models are those that combine observational data with our understanding of the physics of the environment. The ability to forecast ionospheric weather at low and mid-latitudes, in particular those conditions conducive to plasma 'bubble' formation, have historically been restricted by our limited in-situ observations of the ionospheric plasma. While there has been an exponential growth in remote observations, particularly GPS-TEC, this has not been matched by an increase in in-situ observations (with a few notable exceptions such as DMSP and C/NOFS). In recent years, there have been proposed space sensor networks designed to cover selected orbits in LEO with either low-cost redundant 'disposable' spacecraft-as-sensor CubeSat platforms, or low-cost low-SWAP traditional sensors designed to be placed on as many conventional satellites as possible. The primary objective of these missions is to provide a dense set of sensor data parameters to 'fill in the gaps'. We propose a feasible low-cost CubeSat mission of 10 to 25 satellites-as-sensors in various orbital configurations. The benefit of such a mission to assimilative data models such as GAIM is examined, with improvements quantified and various metrics are examined to answer the question 'how many satellites are enough?'.

  14. The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations

    PubMed Central

    Posner, A; Hesse, M; St Cyr, O C

    2014-01-01

    Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations. Key Points Manuscript assesses current and near-future space weather assets Current assets unreliable for forecasting of severe geomagnetic storms Near-future assets will not improve the situation PMID:26213516

  15. SWIFTER - Space Weather Informatics, Forecasting, and Technology through Enabling Research and Virtual Organizations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaefer, R. K.; Morrison, D.; Paxton, L.; Holm, J.; Weiss, M.; Hsieh, S.

    2009-05-01

    SWIFTER will build a virtual organization to enable collaboration among research, military, and commercial communities to find new ways to understand, characterize, and forecast space weather to meet the needs of our technology based society. In this paper we discuss how knowledge is shared in organizations and how a virtual organization can be formed. A key element of a "virtual" organization is that it is a fluid collection of members that share some means of communicating relevant information among some of its members. The members also share ideas in evolution (such as analysis, new technologies, and predictive trending). As concepts mature they can be matured or discarded more quickly as the power of the network is brought to bear early and often. Space weather, the changes in the near-Earth space environment, is important to a wide range of users as well as the public. The public is interested in a variety of phenomena including meteors, solar flares, the aurora, noctilucent clouds and climate change. Industry focus tends to be on more concrete problems such as ground-induced currents in power lines and communications with aircraft in transpolar routes as well as geolocation (i.e. the use of GPS systems to precisely map a function to a position). Other government-oriented users service specialized communities who may be more or less unaware of the research and development upon which the forecasts or nowcasts rely for accuracy. The basic research community may be more or less unaware of the details of the applications, or potential applications of their research. The problem, then, is that each of these constituencies may share elements in common but there is no umbrella organization that ties them together, nor is there likely to be such an organization. Our goal in this paper is to outline a scheme for a virtual organization, delineate the functions of that VO and illustrate how it might be formed. We also will assess the barriers to knowledge transfer that

  16. Space Weather - Current Capabilities, Future Requirements, and the Path to Improved Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mann, Ian

    2016-07-01

    We present an overview of Space Weather activities and future opportunities including assessments of current status and capabilities, knowledge gaps, and future directions in relation to both observations and modeling. The review includes input from the scientific community including from SCOSTEP scientific discipline representatives (SDRs), COSPAR Main Scientific Organizers (MSOs), and SCOSTEP/VarSITI leaders. The presentation also draws on results from the recent activities related to the production of the COSPAR-ILWS Space Weather Roadmap "Understanding Space Weather to Shield Society" [Schrijver et al., Advances in Space Research 55, 2745 (2015) http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2015.03.023], from the activities related to the United Nations (UN) Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) actions in relation to the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space (LTS), and most recently from the newly formed and ongoing efforts of the UN COPUOS Expert Group on Space Weather.

  17. 14 CFR 135.213 - Weather reports and forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Weather reports and forecasts. 135.213... Operating Limitations and Weather Requirements § 135.213 Weather reports and forecasts. (a) Whenever a person operating an aircraft under this part is required to use a weather report or forecast, that...

  18. 14 CFR 135.213 - Weather reports and forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Weather reports and forecasts. 135.213... Operating Limitations and Weather Requirements § 135.213 Weather reports and forecasts. (a) Whenever a person operating an aircraft under this part is required to use a weather report or forecast, that...

  19. 14 CFR 135.213 - Weather reports and forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Weather reports and forecasts. 135.213... Operating Limitations and Weather Requirements § 135.213 Weather reports and forecasts. (a) Whenever a person operating an aircraft under this part is required to use a weather report or forecast, that...

  20. 14 CFR 135.213 - Weather reports and forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Weather reports and forecasts. 135.213... Operating Limitations and Weather Requirements § 135.213 Weather reports and forecasts. (a) Whenever a person operating an aircraft under this part is required to use a weather report or forecast, that...

  1. 14 CFR 135.213 - Weather reports and forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Weather reports and forecasts. 135.213... Operating Limitations and Weather Requirements § 135.213 Weather reports and forecasts. (a) Whenever a person operating an aircraft under this part is required to use a weather report or forecast, that...

  2. Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Owens, M J; Horbury, T S; Wicks, R T; McGregor, S L; Savani, N P; Xiong, M

    2014-01-01

    Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind “noise,” which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical “downscaling” of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme. Key Points Solar wind models must be downscaled in order to drive magnetospheric models Ensemble downscaling is more effective than deterministic downscaling The magnetosphere responds nonlinearly to small-scale solar wind fluctuations PMID:26213518

  3. Weather Forecasting Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    Weather forecasters are usually very precise in reporting such conditions as temperature, wind velocity and humidity. They also provide exact information on barometric pressure at a given moment, and whether the barometer is "rising" or "falling"- but not how rapidly or how slowly it is rising or falling. Until now, there has not been available an instrument which measures precisely the current rate of change of barometric pressure. A meteorological instrument called a barograph traces the historical ups and downs of barometric pressure and plots a rising or falling curve, but, updated every three hours, it is only momentarily accurate at each updating.

  4. Modeling the Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics System for Space Weather Specifications, Forecasts and Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schunk, R. W.; Scherliess, L.; Eccles, V.; Gardner, L. C.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.; Pi, X.; Mannucci, A. J.; Butala, M. D.; Wilson, B. D.; Komjathy, A.; Wang, C.; Rosen, G.

    2015-12-01

    Significant progress has been made during the last two decades with regard to understanding, specifying, forecasting, and mitigating the impacts of space weather on numerous DoD and civilian activities. The progress has been made because of more and improved measurements, and advances in modeling the ionosphere-thermosphere-electrodynamics (I-T-E) system. With regard to modeling, the recent focus has been on ensemble modeling with both physics-based and data assimilation models. Our team has created a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) that is composed of seven physics-based data assimilation models for the I-T-E system that cover the globe. Five different data assimilation models cover the mid-low latitude region, so that we can conduct ensemble modeling with physics-based data assimilation models in that domain. The data assimilation models can assimilate Total Electron Content (TEC) from a constellation of satellites, bottom-side electron density profiles from digisondes, and in situ plasma densities, occultations and ultraviolet emissions from satellites. We have performed MEPS model runs for selected storm and quiet periods, and for each period we have obtained ensemble model reconstructions with different data types and amounts in order to determine how the individual data assimilation models behave. These new and interesting results will be presented.

  5. The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Posner, Arik; Hesse, Michael; SaintCyr, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

  6. The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Posner, A.; Hesse, M.; St. Cyr, O. C.

    2014-04-01

    Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

  7. Weather Forecasting Systems and Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mecikalski, John (Inventor); MacKenzie, Wayne M., Jr. (Inventor); Walker, John Robert (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    A weather forecasting system has weather forecasting logic that receives raw image data from a satellite. The raw image data has values indicative of light and radiance data from the Earth as measured by the satellite, and the weather forecasting logic processes such data to identify cumulus clouds within the satellite images. For each identified cumulus cloud, the weather forecasting logic applies interest field tests to determine a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming precipitation and/or lightning in the future within a certain time period. Based on such scores, the weather forecasting logic predicts in which geographic regions the identified cumulus clouds will produce precipitation and/or lighting within during the time period. Such predictions may then be used to provide a weather map thereby providing users with a graphical illustration of the areas predicted to be affected by precipitation within the time period.

  8. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  9. The pioneers of weather forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballard, Susan

    2016-01-01

    In The Weather Experiment author Peter Moore takes us on a compelling journey through the early history of weather forecasting, bringing to life the personalities, lives and achievements of the men who put in place the building blocks required for forecasts to be possible.

  10. GPS/GLONASS-based TEC measurements as a contributor for space weather forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jakowski, N.; Heise, S.; Wehrenpfennig, A.; Schlüter, S.; Reimer, R.

    2002-03-01

    Space weather monitoring and forecast require a permanent monitoring of the ionospheric state on global scale. The world-wide use of global navigation satellite systems such as GPS and GLONASS offers the unique chance for a permanent monitoring of the total ionization (total electron content-TEC) of the global ionosphere/plasmasphere up to about 20000km height. In this study we turn our attention to TEC variations over the European area. Using the data of more than 15 GPS stations of the GPS tracking network of the International GPS Service (IGS), a horizontal resolution in the order of 500km is achieved, the standard time resolution is 10min. The total ionization of the ionosphere reacts very sensitive to solar radiation changes. As correlation studies with the solar radio flux index F10.7 have shown, the ionospheric response over the European area is delayed by about 1-3 days depending on geophysical conditions. Consequently, the turn off/on of the solar radiation during the solar eclipse on August 11, 1999 was seen as a significant reduction of TEC following the obscuration function with a delay of up to 40min. Ground-based GPS measurements can effectively be used for detecting large-scale horizontal structures and their motion (up to 30s time resolution) during perturbation processes (see http://www.kn.nz.dlr.de/). These capabilities are demonstrated by analyzing individual storms of January 10, 1997 and of April 6, 2000. For the latter also TEC maps of the Northern polar cap down to /50°N were computed. These polar maps indicate strong ionization enhancements around the geomagnetic pole in the evening hours. Furthermore, simultaneous high rate sampled GPS and GLONASS data are presented that demonstrate the impact of perturbation-induced small-scale irregularities in the ionosphere on satellite signals in operational communication and navigation systems.

  11. Deep Space Ka-band Link Management and the MRO Demonstration: Long-term Weather Statistics Versus Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davarian, Faramaz; Shambayati, Shervin; Slobin, Stephen

    2004-01-01

    During the last 40 years, deep space radio communication systems have experienced a move toward shorter wavelengths. In the 1960s a transition from L- to S-band occurred which was followed by a transition from S- to X-band in the 1970s. Both these transitions provided deep space links with wider bandwidths and improved radio metrics capability. Now, in the 2000s, a new change is taking place, namely a move to the Ka-band region of the radio frequency spectrum. Ka-band will soon replace X-band as the frequency of choice for deep space communications providing ample spectrum for the high data rate requirements of future missions. The low-noise receivers of deep space networks have a great need for link management techniques that can mitigate weather effects. In this paper, three approaches for managing Ka-band Earth-space links are investigated. The first approach uses aggregate annual statistics, the second one uses monthly statistics, and the third is based on the short-term forecasting of the local weather. An example of weather forecasting for Ka-band link performance prediction is presented. Furthermore, spacecraft commanding schemes suitable for Ka-band link management are investigated. Theses schemes will be demonstrated using NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) spacecraft in the 2007 to 2008 time period, and the demonstration findings will be reported in a future publication.

  12. From Predicting Solar Activity to Forecasting Space Weather: Practical Examples of Research-to-Operations and Operations-to-Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steenburgh, R. A.; Biesecker, D. A.; Millward, G. H.

    2014-02-01

    The successful transition of research to operations (R2O) and operations to research (O2R) requires, above all, interaction between the two communities. We explore the role that close interaction and ongoing communication played in the successful fielding of three separate developments: an observation platform, a numerical model, and a visualization and specification tool. Additionally, we will examine how these three pieces came together to revolutionize interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) arrival forecasts. A discussion of the importance of education and training in ensuring a positive outcome from R2O activity follows. We describe efforts by the meteorological community to make research results more accessible to forecasters and the applicability of these efforts to the transfer of space-weather research. We end with a forecaster "wish list" for R2O transitions. Ongoing, two-way communication between the research and operations communities is the thread connecting it all.

  13. Forecasting the Weather.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bollinger, Richard

    1984-01-01

    Presents a computer program which predicts the weather based on student input of such weather data as wind direction and barometric pressure. Also provides procedures for several hands-on, weather-related activities. (JN)

  14. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

  15. Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Solar drivers of severe space weather can be predicted from line-of-sight magnetograms, via a free-energy proxy measured from the neutral lines. This can be done in near real time. In addition to depending strongly on the free magnetic energy, an active region's chance of having a major eruption depends strongly on other aspects of the evolving magnetic field (e.g., its complexity and flux emergence).

  16. GEM: Statistical weather forecasting procedure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, R. G.

    1983-01-01

    The objective of the Generalized Exponential Markov (GEM) Program was to develop a weather forecast guidance system that would: predict between 0 to 6 hours all elements in the airways observations; respond instantly to the latest observed conditions of the surface weather; process these observations at local sites on minicomputing equipment; exceed the accuracy of current persistence predictions at the shortest prediction of one hour and beyond; exceed the accuracy of current forecast model output statistics inside eight hours; and be capable of making predictions at one location for all locations where weather information is available.

  17. Short-term Forecasting Ground Magnetic Perturbations with the Space Weather Modeling Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Welling, Daniel; Toth, Gabor; Gombosi, Tamas; Singer, Howard; Millward, George

    2016-04-01

    Predicting ground-based magnetic perturbations is a critical step towards specifying and predicting geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in high voltage transmission lines. Currently, the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), a flexible modeling framework for simulating the multi-scale space environment, is being transitioned from research to operational use (R2O) by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. Upon completion of this transition, the SWMF will provide localized dB/dt predictions using real-time solar wind observations from L1 and the F10.7 proxy for EUV as model input. This presentation describes the operational SWMF setup and summarizes the changes made to the code to enable R2O progress. The framework's algorithm for calculating ground-based magnetometer observations will be reviewed. Metrics from data-model comparisons will be reviewed to illustrate predictive capabilities. Early data products, such as regional-K index and grids of virtual magnetometer stations, will be presented. Finally, early successes will be shared, including the code's ability to reproduce the recent March 2015 St. Patrick's Day Storm.

  18. Space Weather Services of Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Park, S.; Kim, Y. Y.; Wi, G.

    2015-12-01

    The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

  19. Space Weather Services of Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, KiChang; Kim, Jae-Hun; Kim, Young Yun; Kwon, Yongki; Wi, Gwan-sik

    2016-07-01

    The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

  20. Convective Weather Avoidance with Uncertain Weather Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karahan, Sinan; Windhorst, Robert D.

    2009-01-01

    Convective weather events have a disruptive impact on air traffic both in terminal area and in en-route airspaces. In order to make sure that the national air transportation system is safe and efficient, it is essential to respond to convective weather events effectively. Traffic flow control initiatives in response to convective weather include ground delay, airborne delay, miles-in-trail restrictions as well as tactical and strategic rerouting. The rerouting initiatives can potentially increase traffic density and complexity in regions neighboring the convective weather activity. There is a need to perform rerouting in an intelligent and efficient way such that the disruptive effects of rerouting are minimized. An important area of research is to study the interaction of in-flight rerouting with traffic congestion or complexity and developing methods that quantitatively measure this interaction. Furthermore, it is necessary to find rerouting solutions that account for uncertainties in weather forecasts. These are important steps toward managing complexity during rerouting operations, and the paper is motivated by these research questions. An automated system is developed for rerouting air traffic in order to avoid convective weather regions during the 20- minute - 2-hour time horizon. Such a system is envisioned to work in concert with separation assurance (0 - 20-minute time horizon), and longer term air traffic management (2-hours and beyond) to provide a more comprehensive solution to complexity and safety management. In this study, weather is dynamic and uncertain; it is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. Algorithms are implemented in an air traffic simulation environment to support the research study. The algorithms used are deterministic but periodically revise reroutes to account for weather forecast updates. In contrast to previous studies, in this study convective weather is represented as regions of airspace that pilots

  1. The Los Alamos dynamic radiation environment assimilation model (DREAM) for space weather specification and forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Reeves, Geoffrey D; Friedel, Reiner H W; Chen, Yue; Koller, Josef; Henderson, Michael G

    2008-01-01

    The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to assess, quantify, and predict the hazards from the natural space environment and the anthropogenic environment produced by high altitude nuclear explosions (HANE). DREAM was initially developed as a basic research activity to understand and predict the dynamics of the Earth's Van Allen radiation belts. It uses Kalman filter techniques to assimilate data from space environment instruments with a physics-based model of the radiation belts. DREAM can assimilate data from a variety of types of instruments and data with various levels of resolution and fidelity by assigning appropriate uncertainties to the observations. Data from any spacecraft orbit can be assimilated but DREAM was designed to function with as few as two spacecraft inputs: one from geosynchronous orbit and one from GPS orbit. With those inputs, DREAM can be used to predict the environment at any satellite in any orbit whether space environment data are available in those orbits or not. Even with very limited data input and relatively simple physics models, DREAM specifies the space environment in the radiation belts to a high level of accuracy. DREAM has been extensively tested and evaluated as we transition from research to operations. We report here on one set of test results in which we predict the environment in a highly-elliptical polar orbit. We also discuss long-duration reanalysis for spacecraft design, using DREAM for real-time operations, and prospects for 1-week forecasts of the radiation belt environment.

  2. Addressing Metrics and Validation Needs for Space Weather Models, Tools and Forecasting Techniques at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuznetsova, Maria

    2016-07-01

    Systematic evaluation of space environment models and tools and confidence assessment of space weather forecasting techniques and procedures are critical for development and further improvements of operational space weather prediction capabilities. Quantifying the confidence and predictive accuracy of model calculations is a key information needed for making high-consequence decisions. The approach to the validation, uncertainty assessment and to the format of the metrics is strongly dependent on specific applications and end user needs. There is a need to understand which aspects of spatial and temporal characteristicsof space environment parameters are the most important for specific impacts on technological and biological systems. The presentation will review progress in on-going coordinated model validation activities and metrics studies organized and supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. We will focus on tasks associated with model-data comparisons, such as appropriate metrics selection for specific applications, preparation of observational data, sensitivity analysis of model outputs to input parameters, boundary conditions, modeling assumptions, adjustable parameters. We will discuss ideas for community-wide initiatives to build upon successes and to address challenges of metrics and validation activities, to develop guidelines and procedures to trace improvements over time and to pave a path forward.

  3. Kazakhstan Space Weather Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kryakunova, Olga

    2012-07-01

    Kazakhstan experimental complex is a center of experimental study of space weather. This complex is situated near Almaty, Kazakhstan and includes experimental setup for registration of cosmic ray intensity (neutron monitor) at altitude of 3340 m above sea level, geomagnetic observatory and setup for registration of solar flux density with frequency of 1 and 3 GHz with 1 second time resolution. Results of space environment monitoring in real time are accessible via Internet. This experimental information is used for space weather investigations and different cosmic ray effects. Almaty mountain cosmic ray station is one of the most suitable and sensitive stations for investigation and forecasting of the dangerous situations for satellites; for this reason Almaty cosmic ray station is included in the world-wide neutron monitor network for the real-time monitoring of the space weather conditions and European Database NMDB (www.nmdb.eu). All data are represented on the web-site of the Institute of Ionosphere (www.ionos.kz) in real time. Since July, 2006 the space environment prediction laboratory represents the forecast of geomagnetic activity every day on the same site (www.ionos.kz/?q=en/node/21).

  4. Progress toward forecasting of space weather effects on UHF SATCOM after Operation Anaconda

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelly, Michael A.; Comberiate, Joseph M.; Miller, Ethan S.; Paxton, Larry J.

    2014-10-01

    Space weather impacts on communications are often presented as a raison d'etre for studying space weather (e.g., Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society, 2013). Here we consider a communications outage during Operation Anaconda in Afghanistan that may have been related to ionospheric disturbances. Early military operations occurred during the peak of solar cycle 23 when ionospheric variability was enhanced. During Operation Anaconda, the Battle of Takur Ghar occurred at the summit of a 3191 m Afghan mountaintop on 4 March 2002 when the ionosphere was disturbed and could have affected UHF Satellite Communications (SATCOM). In this paper, we consider UHF SATCOM outages that occurred during repeated attempts to notify a Quick Reaction Force (QRF) on board an MH-47H Chinook to avoid a "hot" landing zone at the top of Takur Ghar. During a subsequent analysis of Operation Anaconda, these outages were attributed to poor performance of the UHF radios on the helicopters and to blockage by terrain. However, it is also possible that ionospheric anomalies together with multipath effects could have combined to decrease the signal-to-noise ratio of the communication links used by the QRF. A forensics study of Takur Ghar with data from the Global Ultraviolet Imager on the NASA Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics mission showed the presence of ionospheric bubbles (regions of depleted electron density) along the line of sight between the Chinook and the UHF communications satellites in geostationary orbit that could have impacted communications. The events of 4 March 2002 motivated us to develop the Mesoscale Ionospheric Simulation Testbed model, which can be used to improve warnings of potential UHF outages during future military operations.

  5. Weather related continuity and completeness on Deep Space Ka-band links: statistics and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shambayati, Shervin

    2006-01-01

    In this paper the concept of link 'stability' as means of measuring the continuity of the link is introduced and through it, along with the distributions of 'good' periods and 'bad' periods, the performance of the proposed Ka-band link design method using both forecasting and long-term statistics has been analyzed. The results indicate that the proposed link design method has relatively good continuity and completeness characteristics even when only long-term statistics are used and that the continuity performance further improves when forecasting is employed. .

  6. Titanic Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2004-04-01

    New Detailed VLT Images of Saturn's Largest Moon Optimizing space missions Titan, the largest moon of Saturn was discovered by Dutch astronomer Christian Huygens in 1655 and certainly deserves its name. With a diameter of no less than 5,150 km, it is larger than Mercury and twice as large as Pluto. It is unique in having a hazy atmosphere of nitrogen, methane and oily hydrocarbons. Although it was explored in some detail by the NASA Voyager missions, many aspects of the atmosphere and surface still remain unknown. Thus, the existence of seasonal or diurnal phenomena, the presence of clouds, the surface composition and topography are still under debate. There have even been speculations that some kind of primitive life (now possibly extinct) may be found on Titan. Titan is the main target of the NASA/ESA Cassini/Huygens mission, launched in 1997 and scheduled to arrive at Saturn on July 1, 2004. The ESA Huygens probe is designed to enter the atmosphere of Titan, and to descend by parachute to the surface. Ground-based observations are essential to optimize the return of this space mission, because they will complement the information gained from space and add confidence to the interpretation of the data. Hence, the advent of the adaptive optics system NAOS-CONICA (NACO) [1] in combination with ESO's Very Large Telescope (VLT) at the Paranal Observatory in Chile now offers a unique opportunity to study the resolved disc of Titan with high sensitivity and increased spatial resolution. Adaptive Optics (AO) systems work by means of a computer-controlled deformable mirror that counteracts the image distortion induced by atmospheric turbulence. It is based on real-time optical corrections computed from image data obtained by a special camera at very high speed, many hundreds of times each second (see e.g. ESO Press Release 25/01 , ESO PR Photos 04a-c/02, ESO PR Photos 19a-c/02, ESO PR Photos 21a-c/02, ESO Press Release 17/02, and ESO Press Release 26/03 for earlier NACO

  7. Space weather: Challenges and Opportunities (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogdan, T. J.

    2009-12-01

    The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has the following legal mandates to: a) Continuously monitor, measure, and specify the space environment, b) Provide timely and accurate space weather data, operational forecasts, alerts, and warnings of hazardous space weather phenomena, c) Provide scientific stewardship of, and public access to, space weather data and products, d) Understand the processes that influence space weather and develop applications for the user community and e) Develop new and improved products and transition them into operations to meet evolving space weather user needs. This presentation will discuss the challenges and opportunities that NOAA and the SWPC face in addressing these mandates. This includes coordination of space environment activities across federal agencies and the strategic planning for NOAA's space weather services, integration of space weather activities as well as critical dependencies of space weather services on current and future operational environmental satellites.

  8. An Overview of Scientific and Space Weather Results from the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) Mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pfaff, R.; de la Beaujardiere, O.; Hunton, D.; Heelis, R.; Earle, G.; Strauss, P.; Bernhardt, P.

    2012-01-01

    The Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) Mission of the Air Force Research Laboratory is described. C/NOFS science objectives may be organized into three categories: (1) to understand physical processes active in the background ionosphere and thermosphere in which plasma instabilities grow; (2) to identify mechanisms that trigger or quench the plasma irregularities responsible for signal degradation; and (3) to determine how the plasma irregularities affect the propagation of electromagnetic waves. The satellite was launched in April, 2008 into a low inclination (13 deg), elliptical (400 x 850 km) orbit. The satellite sensors measure the following parameters in situ: ambient and fluctuating electron densities, AC and DC electric and magnetic fields, ion drifts and large scale ion composition, ion and electron temperatures, and neutral winds. C/NOFS is also equipped with a GPS occultation receiver and a radio beacon. In addition to the satellite sensors, complementary ground-based measurements, theory, and advanced modeling techniques are also important parts of the mission. We report scientific and space weather highlights of the mission after nearly four years in orbit

  9. Observations of Heliospheric Faraday Rotation (FR) and Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) with the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR): Steps Towards Improving Space-Weather Forecasting Capabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bisi, M. M.; Fallows, R. A.; Sobey, C.; Eftekhari, T.; Jensen, E. A.; Jackson, B. V.; Yu, H. S.; Hick, P. P.; Odstrcil, D.; Tokumaru, M.

    2015-12-01

    The phenomenon of space weather - analogous to terrestrial weather which describes the changing pressure, temperature, wind, and humidity conditions on Earth - is essentially a description of the changes in velocity, density, magnetic field, high-energy particles, and radiation in the near-Earth space environment including the effects of such changes on the Earth's magnetosphere, radiation belts, ionosphere, and thermosphere. Space weather can be considered to have two main strands: (i) scientific research, and (ii) applications. The former is self-explanatory, but the latter covers operational aspects which includes its forecasting. Understanding and forecasting space weather in the near-Earth environment is vitally important to protecting our modern-day reliance (militarily and commercially) on satellites, global-communication and navigation networks, high-altitude air travel (radiation concerns particularly on polar routes), long-distance power/oil/gas lines and piping, and for any future human exploration of space to list but a few. Two ground-based radio-observing remote-sensing techniques that can aid our understanding and forecasting of heliospheric space weather are those of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and heliospheric Faraday rotation (FR). The LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR) is a next-generation 'software' radio telescope centered in The Netherlands with international stations spread across central and northwest Europe. For several years, scientific observations of IPS on LOFAR have been undertaken on a campaign basis and the experiment is now well developed. More recently, LOFAR has been used to attempt scientific heliospheric FR observations aimed at remotely sensing the magnetic field of the plasma traversing the inner heliosphere. We present our latest progress using these two radio heliospheric-imaging remote-sensing techniques including the use of three-dimensional (3-D) modeling and reconstruction techniques using other, additional data as input

  10. 3D Analysis of Remote-Sensed Heliospheric Data for Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, H. S.; Jackson, B. V.; Hick, P. P.; Buffington, A.; Bisi, M. M.; Odstrcil, D.; Hong, S.; Kim, J.; Yi, J.; Tokumaru, M.; Gonzalez-Esparza, A.

    2015-12-01

    The University of California, San Diego (UCSD) time-dependent iterative kinematic reconstruction technique has been used and expanded upon for over two decades. It currently provides some of the most accurate predictions and three-dimensional (3D) analyses of heliospheric solar-wind parameters now available using interplanetary scintillation (IPS) data. The parameters provided include reconstructions of velocity, density, and magnetic fields. Precise time-dependent results are obtained at any solar distance in the inner heliosphere using current Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (STELab), Nagoya University, Japan IPS data sets, but the reconstruction technique can also incorporate data from other IPS systems from around the world. With access using world IPS data systems, not only can predictions using the reconstruction technique be made without observation dead times due to poor longitude coverage or system outages, but the program can itself be used to standardize observations of IPS. Additionally, these analyses are now being exploited as inner-boundary values to drive an ENLIL 3D-MHD heliospheric model in real time. A major potential of this is that it will use the more realistic physics of 3D-MHD modeling to provide an automatic forecast of CMEs and corotating structures up to several days in advance of the event/features arriving at Earth, with or without involving coronagraph imagery or the necessity of magnetic fields being used to provide the background solar wind speeds.

  11. Operational Space Weather Activities in the US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berger, Thomas; Singer, Howard; Onsager, Terrance; Viereck, Rodney; Murtagh, William; Rutledge, Robert

    2016-07-01

    We review the current activities in the civil operational space weather forecasting enterprise of the United States. The NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center is the nation's official source of space weather watches, warnings, and alerts, working with partners in the Air Force as well as international operational forecast services to provide predictions, data, and products on a large variety of space weather phenomena and impacts. In October 2015, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released the National Space Weather Strategy (NSWS) and associated Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) that define how the nation will better forecast, mitigate, and respond to an extreme space weather event. The SWAP defines actions involving multiple federal agencies and mandates coordination and collaboration with academia, the private sector, and international bodies to, among other things, develop and sustain an operational space weather observing system; develop and deploy new models of space weather impacts to critical infrastructure systems; define new mechanisms for the transition of research models to operations and to ensure that the research community is supported for, and has access to, operational model upgrade paths; and to enhance fundamental understanding of space weather through support of research models and observations. The SWAP will guide significant aspects of space weather operational and research activities for the next decade, with opportunities to revisit the strategy in the coming years through the auspices of the National Science and Technology Council.

  12. Using DOE-ARM and Space-Based Assets to Assess the Quality of Air Force Weather 3D Cloud Analysis and Forecast Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nobis, T. E.

    2015-12-01

    Air Force Weather (AFW) has documented requirements for global cloud analysis and forecasting to support DoD missions around the world. To meet these needs, AFW utilizes a number of cloud products. Cloud analyses are constructed using 17 different near real time satellite sources. Products include analysis of the individual satellite transmissions at native satellite resolution and an hourly global merge of all 17 sources on a 24km grid. AFW has also recently started creation of a time delayed global cloud reanalysis to produce a 'best possible' analysis for climatology and verification purposes. Forecasted cloud products include global short-range cloud forecasts created using advection techniques as well as statistically post processed cloud forecast products derived from various global and regional numerical weather forecast models. All of these cloud products cover different spatial and temporal resolutions and are produced on a number of different grid projections. The longer term vision of AFW is to consolidate these various approaches into uniform global numerical weather modeling (NWM) system using advanced cloudy-data assimilation processes to construct the analysis and a licensed version of UKMO's Unified Model to produce the various cloud forecast products. In preparation for this evolution in cloud modeling support, AFW has started to aggressively benchmark the performance of their current capabilities. Cloud information collected from so called 'active' sensors on the ground at the DOE-ARM sites and from space by such instruments as CloudSat, CALIPSO and CATS are being utilized to characterize the performance of AFW products derived largely by passive means. The goal is to understand the performance of the 3D cloud analysis and forecast products of today to help shape the requirements and standards for the future NWM driven system.This presentation will present selected results from these benchmarking efforts and highlight insights and observations

  13. Comparing High Resolution Weather Forecasts to Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foley, T. A.; Smith, J. A.; Raby, J. W.

    2013-12-01

    The Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) system, with a horizontal grid spacing of several kilometers to several hundred kilometers. WRF can create forecasts of finer horizontal resolution by embedding a smaller domain inside the parent domain, a process called nesting. A nest may be embedded simultaneously within a coarser-resolution (parent) model run, or run independently as a separate model forecast. Army operations require weather forecasts on a scale of one kilometer or less, an area of weather modeling known as 'terra incognita' between which large eddy simulation and traditional mesoscale NWP models are applied with most confidence. Complex terrain leads to differences in surface temperature, moisture gradients, and wind speed /wind direction, and these differences are not always well-characterized by mesoscale WRF forecasts. Differences in land surface characteristics produce air flows such as mountain/valley breezes, and sea breezes that are of vital importance to Army and Air Force operations. Atmospheric effects on commercial as well as military air platforms and any associated subsystems is of critical concern, whether for commercial flight planning or for military mission execution. The traditional model verification techniques currently used aggregate the error statistics over an entire domain (such as on the order of 100km x 100km to 500km x 500km in size), techniques which produce results that often appear smoothed and may not show the value added of higher resolution WRF output at grid resolutions of 1km or less. Point verification methods can also be ineffective due to 'double counting' errors of phase and spatial nature, and failing to capture model skill in resolving mesoscale structure. More in-depth analysis of the forecast errors are needed to deduce the various sub-regimes and temporal and spatial trends which may govern the statistics in a way which

  14. STEREO Space Weather and the Space Weather Beacon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Biesecker, D. A.; Webb, D F.; SaintCyr, O. C.

    2007-01-01

    The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) is first and foremost a solar and interplanetary research mission, with one of the natural applications being in the area of space weather. The obvious potential for space weather applications is so great that NOAA has worked to incorporate the real-time data into their forecast center as much as possible. A subset of the STEREO data will be continuously downlinked in a real-time broadcast mode, called the Space Weather Beacon. Within the research community there has been considerable interest in conducting space weather related research with STEREO. Some of this research is geared towards making an immediate impact while other work is still very much in the research domain. There are many areas where STEREO might contribute and we cannot predict where all the successes will come. Here we discuss how STEREO will contribute to space weather and many of the specific research projects proposed to address STEREO space weather issues. We also discuss some specific uses of the STEREO data in the NOAA Space Environment Center.

  15. Current and future challenges in space weather science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhukov, Andrei

    The main objective of the space weather science is to provide a scientific basis for reliable space weather forecasting. The importance of space weather forecasting is increasing as our society is becoming more and more dependent on advanced technologies that may be affected by adverse space weather conditions. Space weather forecasting is still a difficult task and requires specific observational inputs that are reviewed in this presentation, with an emphasis on solar and interplanetary weather. A list of key observations that are essential for real-time operational space weather forecasting is established. Further on, the use of observational data to produce reliable predictions requires development of empirical and statistical methods, as well as physical models. Scientific basis of space weather forecasting is briefly described. Several important problems are emphasized, and possible ways of improving our predictive capabilities are discussed, including possible novel space observations to be made in future.

  16. RECONSTRUCTING CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WITH COORDINATED IMAGING AND IN SITU OBSERVATIONS: GLOBAL STRUCTURE, KINEMATICS, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING

    SciTech Connect

    Liu Ying; Luhmann, Janet G.; Lin, Robert P.; Bale, Stuart D.; Thernisien, Arnaud; Vourlidas, Angelos; Davies, Jackie A.

    2010-10-20

    We reconstruct the global structure and kinematics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using coordinated imaging and in situ observations from multiple vantage points. A forward modeling technique, which assumes a rope-like morphology for CMEs, is used to determine the global structure (including orientation and propagation direction) from coronagraph observations. We reconstruct the corresponding structure from in situ measurements at 1 AU with the Grad-Shafranov method, which gives the flux-rope orientation, cross section, and a rough knowledge of the propagation direction. CME kinematics (propagation direction and radial distance) during the transit from the Sun to 1 AU are studied with a geometric triangulation technique, which provides an unambiguous association between solar observations and in situ signatures; a track fitting approach is invoked when data are available from only one spacecraft. We show how the results obtained from imaging and in situ data can be compared by applying these methods to the 2007 November 14-16 and 2008 December 12 CMEs. This merged imaging and in situ study shows important consequences and implications for CME research as well as space weather forecasting: (1) CME propagation directions can be determined to a relatively good precision as shown by the consistency between different methods; (2) the geometric triangulation technique shows a promising capability to link solar observations with corresponding in situ signatures at 1 AU and to predict CME arrival at the Earth; (3) the flux rope within CMEs, which has the most hazardous southward magnetic field, cannot be imaged at large distances due to expansion; (4) the flux-rope orientation derived from in situ measurements at 1 AU may have a large deviation from that determined by coronagraph image modeling; and (5) we find, for the first time, that CMEs undergo a westward migration with respect to the Sun-Earth line at their acceleration phase, which we suggest is a universal

  17. Space Weather - the Economic Case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bisi, M. M.; Gibbs, M.

    2015-12-01

    Following on from the UK Government's placement of space weather on it's National Risk Register, in 2011, and the Royal Academy of Engineering's study into the impacts of a severe space weather event, the next piece of key evidence, to underpin future investment decisions, is understanding the socio-economic impact of space weather This poster outlines a study, funded by the UK Space Agency, which will assess the socio-economic cost of space weather, both severe events, such as 1989 & a modern day repeat of the Carrington storm and also the cost of day-to-day impacts. The study will go on to estimate the cost benefit of forecasting and also investigate options for an operational L5 spacecraft mission and knowledge exchange activities with the South African Space Agency. The findings from the initial space weather socio-economic literature review will be presented along with other findings to date and sets out the tasks for the remainder of this programme of work.

  18. Commercializing Space Weather using GAIM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobiska, W. Kent; Schunk, Robert; Sojka, Jan J.

    Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the en-ergy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere is the key region that affects com-munication and navigation systems. The Utah State University (USU) Space Weather Center (SWC) was organized in 2009 to develop commercial space weather applications. It uses the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system as the basis for providing improvements to communication and navigation systems. For example, in August 2009 SWC released, in conjunction with Space Environment Technologies, the world's first real-time space weather via an iPhone app, Space WX. It displays the real-time, current global ionosphere to-tal electron content along with its space weather drivers, is available through the Apple iTunes store, and is used around the world. The GAIM system is run operationally at SWC for global and regional (continental U.S.) conditions. Each run stream continuously ingests up to 10,000 slant TEC measurements every 15-minutes from approximately 500 stations in a Kalman filter to adjust the background output from the physics-based Ionosphere Forecast Model (IFM). Additionally, 80 real-time digisonde data streams from around the world provide ionosphere characterization up to the F-region peak. The combination of these data dramatically improves the current epoch ionosphere specification beyond the physics-based solution. The altitudinal range is 90-1500 km for output TEC, electron densities, and other data products with a few degrees resolution in latitude and longitude at 15-minute time granularity. We describe the existing SWC products that are used as commercial space weather information. SWC funding is provided by the State of Utah's Utah Science Technology and Research (USTAR) initiative. The SWC is physically located on the USU campus in Logan, Utah.

  19. School Science Inspired by Improving Weather Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reid, Heather; Renfrew, Ian A.; Vaughan, Geraint

    2014-01-01

    High winds and heavy rain are regular features of the British weather, and forecasting these events accurately is a major priority for the Met Office and other forecast providers. This is the challenge facing DIAMET, a project involving university groups from Manchester, Leeds, Reading, and East Anglia, together with the Met Office. DIAMET is part…

  20. Space Weathering of Rocks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noble, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    Space weathering discussions have generally centered around soils but exposed rocks will also incur the effects of weathering. On the Moon, rocks make up only a very small percentage of the exposed surface and areas where rocks are exposed, like central peaks, are often among the least space weathered regions we find in remote sensing data. However, our studies of weathered Ap 17 rocks 76015 and 76237 show that significant amounts of weathering products can build up on rock surfaces. Because rocks have much longer surface lifetimes than an individual soil grain, and thus record a longer history of exposure, we can study these products to gain a deeper perspective on the weathering process and better assess the relative impo!1ance of various weathering components on the Moon. In contrast to the lunar case, on small asteroids, like Itokowa, rocks make up a large fraction of the exposed surface. Results from the Hayabusa spacecraft at Itokowa suggest that while the low gravity does not allow for the development of a mature regolith, weathering patinas can and do develop on rock surfaces, in fact, the rocky surfaces were seen to be darker and appear spectrally more weathered than regions with finer materials. To explore how weathering of asteroidal rocks may differ from lunar, a set of ordinary chondrite meteorites (H, L, and LL) which have been subjected to artificial space weathering by nanopulse laser were examined by TEM. NpFe(sup 0) bearing glasses were ubiquitous in both the naturally-weathered lunar and the artificially-weathered meteorite samples.

  1. Forecasts of time averages with a numerical weather prediction model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roads, J. O.

    1986-01-01

    Forecasts of time averages of 1-10 days in duration by an operational numerical weather prediction model are documented for the global 500 mb height field in spectral space. Error growth in very idealized models is described in order to anticipate various features of these forecasts and in order to anticipate what the results might be if forecasts longer than 10 days were carried out by present day numerical weather prediction models. The data set for this study is described, and the equilibrium spectra and error spectra are documented; then, the total error is documented. It is shown how forecasts can immediately be improved by removing the systematic error, by using statistical filters, and by ignoring forecasts beyond about a week. Temporal variations in the error field are also documented.

  2. Toward a Space Weather Virtual Organization (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paxton, L. J.; Holm, J. M.; Schaefer, R. K.; Weiss, M.

    2009-12-01

    On the 150th anniversary of the Carrington Event, it behooves us to reflect upon the impact of space weather on our technology-intensive, communications-driven, socitey. Over the period since the last solar maximum in 2001, the commercial, defense department, and other national entities have become increasingly dependent on the electronic command, control, & communication systems that are vulnerable to Space Weather events. There has not been a concomitant increase in our ability to reliably predict space weather nor in our ability to separate natural effects from human ones. Now we need to quickly gear up space situational awareness capability in time for the next solar max predicted to occur in about 3-4 years. Unfortunately, space weather expertise is spread over institutions and academic disciplines and communication between space weather forecasters, forecast users, and the research community is poor. We would like to set up a demonstration space weather virtual organization to find a more efficient way to communicate and manage knowledge to ensure the operational community can get actionable information in a timely manner. We call this system concept SWIFTER-ACTION (Space Weather Informatics, Forecasting, and Technology through Enabling Research - Accessibility, Content, & Timely Information On the Network.) In this paper we provide an overview of the issues that must be addressed in order to transform data into knowledge that enables action.

  3. First look at RBSP Space Weather data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiss, M.; Mauk, B. H.; Fox, N. J.; Sotirelis, T.; Barnes, R. J.; Potter, M.

    2011-12-01

    NASA will launch two identical probes into the radiation belts to provide unprecedented insight into the physical processes and dynamics of near-Earth space. The RBSP mission in addition to the scientific data return, provides a 1kbps real-time space weather broadcast data in support of real time space weather modeling, forecast and prediction efforts. Networks of ground stations are being identified to downlink the space weather data. The RBSP instrument suites have selected space weather data to be broadcast from their collected space data on board the spacecraft, a subset from measurements based on information normally available to the instrument. The data subset includes particle fluxes at a variety of energies, and magnetic and electric field data. This selected space weather data is broadcast at all times through the primary spacecraft science downlink antennas when an observatory is not in a primary mission-related ground contact. The collected data will resolve important scientific issues and help researchers develop and improve various models for the radiation belts that can be used by forecasters to predict space weather phenomena and alert astronauts and spacecraft operators to potential hazards. The near real-time data from RBSP will be available to monitor and analyze current environmental conditions, forecast natural environmental changes and support anomaly resolution. When RBSP launches in August 2012, the RBSP instruments will be generating and broadcasting real-time space weather data. These data are used for space weather forecasting. The space weather data will be available on the RBSP Science Data Portal at http://rbspsdp.jhuapl.edu/data.php and will provide access to the space weather data received from the RBSP real-time space weather broadcast. The near real-time data will be calibrated and displayed on the web as soon as possible. The CCMC will ingest the RBSP space weather data into real-time models. The raw space weather data will be

  4. Weather forecasting support for AASE-2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Forbes, Gregory S.

    1992-01-01

    The AFEAS Contract and NASA Grant were awarded to Penn State in order to obtain real-time weather forecasting support for the NASA AASE-II Project, which was conducted between October 1991 and March 1992. Because of the special weather sensitivities of the NASA ER-2 aircraft, AASE-II planners felt that public weather forecasts issued by the National Weather Service would not be adequate for mission planning purposes. A likely consequence of resorting to that medium would have been that scientists would have had to be at work by 4 AM day after day in the hope that the aircraft could fly, only to be frustrated by a great number of 'scrubbed' missions. Thus, the Pennsylvania State University was contracted to provide real-time weather support to the AASE-II mission.

  5. National Weather Service Forecast Reference Evapotranspiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osborne, H. D.; Palmer, C. K.; Krone-Davis, P.; Melton, F. S.; Hobbins, M.

    2013-12-01

    The National Weather Service (NWS), Weather Forecasting Offices (WFOs) are producing daily reference evapotranspiration (ETrc) forecasts or FRET across the Western Region and in other selected locations since 2009, using the Penman - Monteith Reference Evapotranspiration equation for a short canopy (12 cm grasses), adopted by the Environmental Water Resources Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE-EWRI, 2004). The sensitivity of these daily calculations to fluctuations in temperatures, humidity, winds, and sky cover allows forecasters with knowledge of local terrain and weather patterns to better forecast in the ETrc inputs. The daily FRET product then evolved into a suite of products, including a weekly ETrc forecast for better water planning and a tabular point forecast for easy ingest into local water management-models. The ETrc forecast product suite allows water managers, the agricultural community, and the public to make more informed water-use decisions. These products permit operational planning, especially with the impending drought across much of the West. For example, the California Department of Water Resources not only ingests the FRET into their soil moisture models, but uses the FRET calculations when determining the reservoir releases in the Sacramento and American Rivers. We will also focus on the expansion of FRET verification, which compares the daily FRET to the observations of ETo from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) across California's Central Valley for the 2012 water year.

  6. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  7. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maddox, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M.; Rastaetter, L.; MacNeice, P. J.; Jain, P.; Garneau, J. W.; Berrios, D. H.; Pulkinnen, A.; Rowland, D.

    2008-12-01

    Space weather affects virtually all of NASA's endeavors, from robotic missions to human exploration. Knowledge and prediction of space weather conditions is therefore essential to NASA operations. The diverse nature of currently available space environment measurements and modeling products, along with the lack of single-portal access, renders its practical use for space weather analysis and forecasting unfeasible. There exists a compelling need for accurate real-time forecasting of both large-scale and local space environments - and their probable impacts for missions. A vital design driver for any system that is created to solve this problem lies in the fact that information needs to be presented in a form that is useful and as such, must be both easily accessible and understandable. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis System is a joint development project at NASA GSFC between the Space Weather Laboratory, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Applied Engineering & Technology Directorate, and NASA HQ Office Of Chief Engineer. The iSWA system will be a turnkey, web-based dissemination system for NASA-relevant space weather information that combines forecasts based on the most advanced space weather models with concurrent space environment information. It will be customer configurable and adaptable for use as a powerful decision making tool offering an unprecedented ability to analyze the present and expected future space weather impacts on virtually all NASA human and robotic missions. We will discuss some of the key design considerations for the system and present some of the initial space weather analysis products that have been created to date.

  8. Space Weather Workshop

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gallagher, D. L.

    2004-01-01

    This workshop will focus on what space weather is about and its impact on society. An overall picture will be "painted" describing the Sun's influence through the solar wind on the near-Earth space environment, including the aurora, killer electrons at geosynchronous orbit, million ampere electric currents through the ionosphere and along magnetic field lines, and the generation of giga-Watts of natural radio waves. Reference material in the form of Internet sites will be provided so that teachers can discuss space weather in the classroom and enable students to learn more about this topic.

  9. Visually Comparing Weather Features in Forecasts.

    PubMed

    Quinan, P Samuel; Meyer, Miriah

    2016-01-01

    Meteorologists process and analyze weather forecasts using visualization in order to examine the behaviors of and relationships among weather features. In this design study conducted with meteorologists in decision support roles, we identified and attempted to address two significant common challenges in weather visualization: the employment of inconsistent and often ineffective visual encoding practices across a wide range of visualizations, and a lack of support for directly visualizing how different weather features relate across an ensemble of possible forecast outcomes. In this work, we present a characterization of the problems and data associated with meteorological forecasting, we propose a set of informed default encoding choices that integrate existing meteorological conventions with effective visualization practice, and we extend a set of techniques as an initial step toward directly visualizing the interactions of multiple features over an ensemble forecast. We discuss the integration of these contributions into a functional prototype tool, and also reflect on the many practical challenges that arise when working with weather data.

  10. Planetary Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grande, M.

    2012-04-01

    Invited Talk - Space weather at other planets While discussion of space weather effects has so far largely been confined to the near-Earth environment, there are significant present and future applications to the locations beyond, and to other planets. Most obviously, perhaps, are the radiation hazards experienced by astronauts on the way to, and on the surface of, the Moon and Mars. Indeed, the environment experienced by planetary spacecraft in transit and at their destinations is of course critical to their design and successful operation. The case of forthcoming missions to Jupiter and Europa is an exreme example. Moreover, such craft can provide information which in turn increases our understanding of geospace. Indeed, space weather may be a significant factor in the habitability of other solar system and extrasolar planets, and the ability of life to travel between them.

  11. Accurate Weather Forecasting for Radio Astronomy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maddalena, Ronald J.

    2010-01-01

    The NRAO Green Bank Telescope routinely observes at wavelengths from 3 mm to 1 m. As with all mm-wave telescopes, observing conditions depend upon the variable atmospheric water content. The site provides over 100 days/yr when opacities are low enough for good observing at 3 mm, but winds on the open-air structure reduce the time suitable for 3-mm observing where pointing is critical. Thus, to maximum productivity the observing wavelength needs to match weather conditions. For 6 years the telescope has used a dynamic scheduling system (recently upgraded; www.gb.nrao.edu/DSS) that requires accurate multi-day forecasts for winds and opacities. Since opacity forecasts are not provided by the National Weather Services (NWS), I have developed an automated system that takes available forecasts, derives forecasted opacities, and deploys the results on the web in user-friendly graphical overviews (www.gb.nrao.edu/ rmaddale/Weather). The system relies on the "North American Mesoscale" models, which are updated by the NWS every 6 hrs, have a 12 km horizontal resolution, 1 hr temporal resolution, run to 84 hrs, and have 60 vertical layers that extend to 20 km. Each forecast consists of a time series of ground conditions, cloud coverage, etc, and, most importantly, temperature, pressure, humidity as a function of height. I use the Liebe's MWP model (Radio Science, 20, 1069, 1985) to determine the absorption in each layer for each hour for 30 observing wavelengths. Radiative transfer provides, for each hour and wavelength, the total opacity and the radio brightness of the atmosphere, which contributes substantially at some wavelengths to Tsys and the observational noise. Comparisons of measured and forecasted Tsys at 22.2 and 44 GHz imply that the forecasted opacities are good to about 0.01 Nepers, which is sufficient for forecasting and accurate calibration. Reliability is high out to 2 days and degrades slowly for longer-range forecasts.

  12. NASA GSFC Space Weather Center - Innovative Space Weather Dissemination: Web-Interfaces, Mobile Applications, and More

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maddox, Marlo; Zheng, Yihua; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Lee, Hyesook; Chulaki, Anna; Hesse, Michael; Mullinix, Richard; Berrios, David

    2012-01-01

    The NASA GSFC Space Weather Center (http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov) is committed to providing forecasts, alerts, research, and educational support to address NASA's space weather needs - in addition to the needs of the general space weather community. We provide a host of services including spacecraft anomaly resolution, historical impact analysis, real-time monitoring and forecasting, custom space weather alerts and products, weekly summaries and reports, and most recently - video casts. There are many challenges in providing accurate descriptions of past, present, and expected space weather events - and the Space Weather Center at NASA GSFC employs several innovative solutions to provide access to a comprehensive collection of both observational data, as well as space weather model/simulation data. We'll describe the challenges we've faced with managing hundreds of data streams, running models in real-time, data storage, and data dissemination. We'll also highlight several systems and tools that are utilized by the Space Weather Center in our daily operations, all of which are available to the general community as well. These systems and services include a web-based application called the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov), two mobile space weather applications for both IOS and Android devices, an external API for web-service style access to data, google earth compatible data products, and a downloadable client-based visualization tool.

  13. Tomorrow's Forecast: Oceans and Weather.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smigielski, Alan

    1995-01-01

    This issue of "Art to Zoo" focuses on weather and climate and is tied to the traveling exhibition Ocean Planet from the Smithsonian's National Museum of Natural History. The lessons encourage students to think about the profound influence the oceans have on planetary climate and life on earth. Sections of the lesson plan include: (1) "Ocean…

  14. Towards a National Space Weather Predictive Capability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fox, N. J.; Ryschkewitsch, M. G.; Merkin, V. G.; Stephens, G. K.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Barnes, R. J.; Anderson, B. J.; Paxton, L. J.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Kelly, M. A.; Berger, T. E.; Bonadonna, L. C. M. F.; Hesse, M.; Sharma, S.

    2015-12-01

    National needs in the area of space weather informational and predictive tools are growing rapidly. Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socio-economic losses and impacts on our security. Future space exploration and most modern human endeavors will require major advances in physical understanding and improved transition of space research to operations. At present, only a small fraction of the latest research and development results from NASA, NOAA, NSF and DoD investments are being used to improve space weather forecasting and to develop operational tools. The power of modern research and space weather model development needs to be better utilized to enable comprehensive, timely, and accurate operational space weather tools. The mere production of space weather information is not sufficient to address the needs of those who are affected by space weather. A coordinated effort is required to support research-to-applications transition efforts and to develop the tools required those who rely on this information. In this presentation we will review the space weather system developed for the Van Allen Probes mission, together with other datasets, tools and models that have resulted from research by scientists at JHU/APL. We will look at how these, and results from future missions such as Solar Probe Plus, could be applied to support space weather applications in coordination with other community assets and capabilities.

  15. The Quest for the Perfect Weather Forecaster

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kahl, Jonathan; Horwitz, Kevin; Berg, Craig; Gruhl, Mary

    2004-01-01

    It is said that meteorology is the only profession where a person can be wrong half the time and still keep his or her job. The truth is not quite so bleak, but one can still ask, "Just how accurate are weather forecasters, anyway?" This article presents two projects for middle level students to investigate this issue in a hands-on,…

  16. Using Satellite Data in Weather Forecasting: I

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Suggs, Ronnie J.; Lecue, Juan M.

    2006-01-01

    The GOES Product Generation System (GPGS) is a set of computer codes and scripts that enable the assimilation of real-time Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data into regional-weather-forecasting mathematical models. The GPGS can be used to derive such geophysical parameters as land surface temperature, the amount of precipitable water, the degree of cloud cover, the surface albedo, and the amount of insolation from satellite measurements of radiant energy emitted by the Earth and its atmosphere. GPGS incorporates a priori information (initial guesses of thermodynamic parameters of the atmosphere) and radiometric measurements from the geostationary operational environmental satellites along with mathematical models of physical principles that govern the transfer of energy in the atmosphere. GPGS solves the radiative-transfer equation and provides the resulting data products in formats suitable for use by weather-forecasting computer programs. The data-assimilation capability afforded by GPGS offers the potential to improve local weather forecasts ranging from 3 hours to 2 days - especially with respect to temperature, humidity, cloud cover, and the probability of precipitation. The improvements afforded by GPGS could be of interest to news media, utility companies, and other organizations that utilize regional weather forecasts.

  17. CCMC: Serving research and space weather communities with unique space weather services, innovative tools and resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Maddox, Marlo

    2015-04-01

    With the addition of Space Weather Research Center (a sub-team within CCMC) in 2010 to address NASA’s own space weather needs, CCMC has become a unique entity that not only facilitates research through providing access to the state-of-the-art space science and space weather models, but also plays a critical role in providing unique space weather services to NASA robotic missions, developing innovative tools and transitioning research to operations via user feedback. With scientists, forecasters and software developers working together within one team, through close and direct connection with space weather customers and trusted relationship with model developers, CCMC is flexible, nimble and effective to meet customer needs. In this presentation, we highlight a few unique aspects of CCMC/SWRC’s space weather services, such as addressing space weather throughout the solar system, pushing the frontier of space weather forecasting via the ensemble approach, providing direct personnel and tool support for spacecraft anomaly resolution, prompting development of multi-purpose tools and knowledge bases, and educating and engaging the next generation of space weather scientists.

  18. Adaptation of Mesoscale Weather Models to Local Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manobianco, John T.; Taylor, Gregory E.; Case, Jonathan L.; Dianic, Allan V.; Wheeler, Mark W.; Zack, John W.; Nutter, Paul A.

    2003-01-01

    Methodologies have been developed for (1) configuring mesoscale numerical weather-prediction models for execution on high-performance computer workstations to make short-range weather forecasts for the vicinity of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and (2) evaluating the performances of the models as configured. These methodologies have been implemented as part of a continuing effort to improve weather forecasting in support of operations of the U.S. space program. The models, methodologies, and results of the evaluations also have potential value for commercial users who could benefit from tailoring their operations and/or marketing strategies based on accurate predictions of local weather. More specifically, the purpose of developing the methodologies for configuring the models to run on computers at KSC and CCAFS is to provide accurate forecasts of winds, temperature, and such specific thunderstorm-related phenomena as lightning and precipitation. The purpose of developing the evaluation methodologies is to maximize the utility of the models by providing users with assessments of the capabilities and limitations of the models. The models used in this effort thus far include the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model ( Eta for short). The configuration of the MASS and RAMS is designed to run the models at very high spatial resolution and incorporate local data to resolve fine-scale weather features. Model preprocessors were modified to incorporate surface, ship, buoy, and rawinsonde data as well as data from local wind towers, wind profilers, and conventional or Doppler radars. The overall evaluation of the MASS, Eta, and RAMS was designed to assess the utility of these mesoscale models for satisfying the weather-forecasting needs of the U.S. space program. The evaluation methodology includes

  19. Activities of NICT space weather project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murata, Ken T.; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Watari, Shinichi; Shinagawa, Hiroyuki; Ishii, Mamoru

    NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar

  20. Space Weather Products at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Maddox, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Berrios, D.; MacNeice, P.

    2010-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second CCMC activity is to support Space Weather forecasting at national Space Weather Forecasting Centers. This second activity involves model evaluations, model transitions to operations, and the development of space weather forecasting tools. Owing to the pace of development in the science community, new model capabilities emerge frequently. Consequently, space weather products and tools involve not only increased validity, but often entirely new capabilities. This presentation will review the present state of space weather tools as well as point out emerging future capabilities.

  1. Towards a National Space Weather Predictive Capability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fox, N. J.; Lindstrom, K. L.; Ryschkewitsch, M. G.; Anderson, B. J.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Merkin, V. G.; Kelly, M. A.; Miller, E. S.; Sitnov, M. I.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Erlandson, R. E.; Barnes, R. J.; Paxton, L. J.; Sotirelis, T.; Stephens, G.; Comberiate, J.

    2014-12-01

    National needs in the area of space weather informational and predictive tools are growing rapidly. Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socio-economic losses and impacts on our security. Future space exploration and most modern human endeavors will require major advances in physical understanding and improved transition of space research to operations. At present, only a small fraction of the latest research and development results from NASA, NOAA, NSF and DoD investments are being used to improve space weather forecasting and to develop operational tools. The power of modern research and space weather model development needs to be better utilized to enable comprehensive, timely, and accurate operational space weather tools. The mere production of space weather information is not sufficient to address the needs of those who are affected by space weather. A coordinated effort is required to support research-to-applications transition efforts and to develop the tools required those who rely on this information. In this presentation we will review datasets, tools and models that have resulted from research by scientists at JHU/APL, and examine how they could be applied to support space weather applications in coordination with other community assets and capabilities.

  2. Visualizing Uncertainty for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting based on Reforecast Analogs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pelorosso, Leandro; Diehl, Alexandra; Matković, Krešimir; Delrieux, Claudio; Ruiz, Juan; Gröeller, M. Eduard; Bruckner, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    Numerical weather forecasts are prone to uncertainty coming from inaccuracies in the initial and boundary conditions and lack of precision in numerical models. Ensemble of forecasts partially addresses these problems by considering several runs of the numerical model. Each forecast is generated with different initial and boundary conditions and different model configurations [GR05]. The ensembles can be expressed as probabilistic forecasts, which have proven to be very effective in the decision-making processes [DE06]. The ensemble of forecasts represents only some of the possible future atmospheric states, usually underestimating the degree of uncertainty in the predictions [KAL03, PH06]. Hamill and Whitaker [HW06] introduced the "Reforecast Analog Regression" (RAR) technique to overcome the limitations of ensemble forecasting. This technique produces probabilistic predictions based on the analysis of historical forecasts and observations. Visual analytics provides tools for processing, visualizing, and exploring data to get new insights and discover hidden information patterns in an interactive exchange between the user and the application [KMS08]. In this work, we introduce Albero, a visual analytics solution for probabilistic weather forecasting based on the RAR technique. Albero targets at least two different type of users: "forecasters", who are meteorologists working in operational weather forecasting and "researchers", who work in the construction of numerical prediction models. Albero is an efficient tool for analyzing precipitation forecasts, allowing forecasters to make and communicate quick decisions. Our solution facilitates the analysis of a set of probabilistic forecasts, associated statistical data, observations and uncertainty. A dashboard with small-multiples of probabilistic forecasts allows the forecasters to analyze at a glance the distribution of probabilities as a function of time, space, and magnitude. It provides the user with a more

  3. Pilot based frameworks for Weather Research Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganapathi, Dinesh Prasanth

    The Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) domain consists of complex workflows that demand the use of Distributed Computing Infrastructure (DCI). Weather forecasting requires that weather researchers use different set of initial conditions and one or a combination of physics models on the same set of input data. For these type of simulations an ensemble based computing approach becomes imperative. Most DCIs have local job-schedulers that have no smart way of dealing with the execution of an ensemble type of computational problem as the job-schedulers are built to cater to the bare essentials of resource allocation. This means the weather scientists have to submit multiple jobs to the job-scheduler. In this dissertation we use Pilot-Job based tools to decouple work-load submission and resource allocation therefore streamlining the complex workflows in Weather Research and Forecasting domain and reduce their overall time to completion. We also achieve location independent job execution, data movement, placement and processing. Next, we create the necessary enablers to run an ensemble of tasks bearing the capability to run on multiple heterogeneous distributed computing resources there by creating the opportunity to minimize the overall time consumed in running the models. Our experiments show that the tools developed exhibit very good, strong and weak scaling characteristics. These results bear the potential to change the way weather researchers are submitting traditional WRF jobs to the DCIs by giving them a powerful weapon in their arsenal that can exploit the combined power of various heterogeneous DCIs that could otherwise be difficult to harness owing to interoperability issues.

  4. How some nonmeteorological professionals view meteorology and weather forecasting.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scoggins, J. R.; Vaughan, W. W.

    1971-01-01

    The results of a questionnaire designed to gather information on how nonmeteorological scientists and engineers view meteorology and weather forecasting are summarized in this paper. The respondents were from two organizations, Texas A & M University and NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, the first representing the academic community and the latter the engineering community. While there were some differences between the groups, in most cases answers expressed in the opinionnaire by the two groups were essentially identical. The results revealed the following: Approximately three-fourths of the respondents use meteorological data and/or weather forecasts in their profession; the meaning of probability forecasts is very unclear with only 13% indicating the correct answer; television is the main source of weather information; approximately half of the respondents had never heard of the Global Atmospheric Research Program; and the opinion was almost unanimous that satellites had contributed significantly to weather observations and/or forecasts. Also, the results indicated a number of other ?problem' areas where some improvements are desired.

  5. Long-Range Weather Forecasting In The Ukraine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martazinova, V. F.; Ivanova, E. K.

    2004-12-01

    The operational system for long range weather forecasting (LRF) was developed by Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute (UHMI) in the result of studies of general circulation and on the long-range weather forecasting which were began in 1975 by research group leaded by Prof. V. Martazinova. Three key approaches are used in the operational system LRF of UHMI: (1) Floating analog method (FAM); (2) Two-month quasi-periodicity of atmospheric processes in the troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere; (3)Ethalon-field approach. The based on the pattern recognition technique FAM is the continuation of the ideas of former Soviet Union school of long-range forecasting. The traditional method of analog was generalized and advanced as the method of "floating analog" (Martazinova and Sologub, 1986; Martazinova, 1989; 2001). FAM requires only geometrical similarity of the planetary high-level frontal zone and surface pressure on the Northern Hemisphere. The limiting conditions of the coincidence in time and space are lifted. The use of FAM made it possible to reveal the two-month quasi-periodicity of synoptic situation in the Northern Hemisphere. The strong changes of weather within month are predicted using statistical "ethalon field" approach that was developed for classification of meteorological fields in the climate research and the long-range forecasting (Martazinova and Prokhorenko, 1991). The meteorological information for the forecast is used only for the last two months before the target month. The fields of geopotential and pressure are recognized by the "ethalon-field-analog" which corresponds to two-month quasi-periodicity of the ethalon-fields. The forecast for days the strong changes of weather over the territory of Ukraine in next two months. Recognition of daily synoptic situations of last two months by the synoptic situation of two-month quasi-periodicity of atmospheric processes for ethalons when there are waves of cold and heat, strong precipitation, strong

  6. Cosmic rays and space weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorman, L. I.

    2003-04-01

    influenced very much on communications, working of navigation systems, satellites and high-level technology systems in space and, the atmosphere, and on the ground). The review and original part will contain following parts: 1. Introduction (cosmic rays as object and instrument of space weather monitoring and forecasting). 2. On-line search of the start of great Flare Energetic Particle (FEP) events, automatically formation of Alerts, estimation of probability of false alerts and probability of missing alerts (realized in Israel Cosmic Ray Center and Emilio Segre’ Observatory). 3. On-line determination of flare energetic particle spectrum by the method of coupling functions. 4. Automatically determination of diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space, time of ejection and energy spectrum of FEP in source; forecasting of expected FEP flux and radiation hazard for space-probes in space, satellites in the magnetosphere, jets and various objects in the atmosphere, and on the ground in dependence of cut-off rigidity. 5. Cosmic ray using for forecasting of major geomagnetic storms accompanied by Forbush-effects.

  7. Highlights of Space Weather Services/Capabilities at NASA/GSFC Space Weather Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fok, Mei-Ching; Zheng, Yihua; Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, Maria; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Mays, Leila; Chulaki, Anna; Lee, Hyesook

    2012-01-01

    The importance of space weather has been recognized world-wide. Our society depends increasingly on technological infrastructure, including the power grid as well as satellites used for communication and navigation. Such technologies, however, are vulnerable to space weather effects caused by the Sun's variability. NASA GSFC's Space Weather Center (SWC) (http://science.gsfc.nasa.gov//674/swx services/swx services.html) has developed space weather products/capabilities/services that not only respond to NASA's needs but also address broader interests by leveraging the latest scientific research results and state-of-the-art models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC: http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov). By combining forefront space weather science and models, employing an innovative and configurable dissemination system (iSWA.gsfc.nasa.gov), taking advantage of scientific expertise both in-house and from the broader community as well as fostering and actively participating in multilateral collaborations both nationally and internationally, NASA/GSFC space weather Center, as a sibling organization to CCMC, is poised to address NASA's space weather needs (and needs of various partners) and to help enhancing space weather forecasting capabilities collaboratively. With a large number of state-of-the-art physics-based models running in real-time covering the whole space weather domain, it offers predictive capabilities and a comprehensive view of space weather events throughout the solar system. In this paper, we will provide some highlights of our service products/capabilities. In particular, we will take the 23 January and the 27 January space weather events as examples to illustrate how we can use the iSWA system to track them in the interplanetary space and forecast their impacts.

  8. The Future of Operational Space Weather Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berger, T. E.

    2015-12-01

    We review the current state of operational space weather observations, the requirements for new or evolved space weather forecasting capablities, and the relevant sections of the new National strategy for space weather developed by the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Task Force chartered by the Office of Science and Technology Policy of the White House. Based on this foundation, we discuss future space missions such as the NOAA space weather mission to the L1 Lagrangian point planned for the 2021 time frame and its synergy with an L5 mission planned for the same period; the space weather capabilities of the upcoming GOES-R mission, as well as GOES-Next possiblities; and the upcoming COSMIC-2 mission for ionospheric observations. We also discuss the needs for ground-based operational networks to supply mission critical and/or backup space weather observations including the NSF GONG solar optical observing network, the USAF SEON solar radio observing network, the USGS real-time magnetometer network, the USCG CORS network of GPS receivers, and the possibility of operationalizing the world-wide network of neutron monitors for real-time alerts of ground-level radiation events.

  9. Bringing Space Weather Down to Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reiff, P. H.; Sumners, C.

    2005-05-01

    Most of the public has no idea what Space Weather is, but a number of innovative programs, web sites, magazine articles, TV shows and planetarium shows have taken space weather from an unknown quantity to a much more visible field. This paper reviews new developments, including the new Space Weather journal, the very popular spaceweather.com website, new immersive planetarium shows that can go "on the road", and well-publicized Sun-Earth Day activities. Real-time data and reasonably accurate spaceweather forecasts are available from several websites, with many subscribers. Even the renaissance of amateur radio because of Homeland Security brings a new generation of learners to wonder what is going on in the Sun today. The NSF Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling has a dedicated team to reach both the public and a greater diversity of new scientists.

  10. Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Yao; Sridhar, Banavar

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60- minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times under one-hour showed that the errors in

  11. Review on space weather in Latin America. 2. The research networks ready for space weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dasso, Sergio; Gonzalez-Esparza, J. Americo

    2016-11-01

    The present work is the second of a three-part review of space weather in Latin America, specifically observing its evolution in three countries (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico). This work comprises a summary of scientific challenges in space weather research that are considered to be open scientific questions and how they are being addressed in terms of instrumentation by the international community, including the Latin American groups. We also provide an inventory of the networks and collaborations being constructed in Latin America, including details on the data processing, capabilities and a basic description of the resulting variables. These instrumental networks currently used for space science research are gradually being incorporated into the space weather monitoring data pipelines as their data provides key variables for monitoring and forecasting space weather, which allow these centers to monitor space weather and issue watches, warnings and alerts.

  12. Space Weathering of Lunar Rocks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noble, S. K.; Keller, L. P.; Christoffersen, R.; Rahman, Z.

    2012-01-01

    All materials exposed at the lunar surface undergo space weathering processes. On the Moon, boulders make up only a small percentage of the exposed surface, and areas where such rocks are exposed, like central peaks, are often among the least space weathered regions identified from remote sensing data. Yet space weathered surfaces (patina) are relatively common on returned rock samples, some of which directly sample the surface of larger boulders. Because, as witness plates to lunar space weathering, rocks and boulders experience longer exposure times compared to lunar soil grains, they allow us to develop a deeper perspective on the relative importance of various weathering processes as a function of time.

  13. Ionosphere-thermosphere space weather issues.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.

    1996-10-01

    Weather disturbances in the ionosphere-thermosphere system can have a detrimental effect on both ground-based and space-based systems. Because of this impact and because this field has matured, it is now appropriate to develop specification and forecast models, with the aim of eventually predicting the occurrence, duration, and intensity of weather effects. As part of the new National Space Weather Program, the CEDAR community will focus on science issues concerning space weather, and this tutorial/review is an expanded version of a tutorial presentation given at the recent CEDAR annual meeting. The tutorial/review provides a brief discussion of weather disturbances and features, the causes of weather, and the status of weather modeling. The features and disturbances discussed include plasma patches, boundary and auroral blobs, Sun-aligned polar cap arcs, the effects of traveling convection vortices and SAID events, the lifetime of density structures, sporadic-E and intermediate layers, spread F and equatorial plasma bubbles, geomagnetic storms and substorms, traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs), and the effects of tides and gravity waves propagating from the lower atmosphere. The tutorial/review is only intended to provide an overview of some of the important scientific issues concerning ionospheric-thermospheric weather, with the emphasis on the ionosphere. Tutorials on thermospheric and magnetospheric weather issues are given in companion papers.

  14. Communicating Environmental Uncertainty: The Nature of Weather Forecasts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Travis, Richard W.; Riebsame, William E.

    1979-01-01

    Traces the path of weather forecasts from the time they are made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration until the time they are received by the public through the mass media. The purpose of the article is to provide geography teachers with basic information on weather forecasts, interpretation of forecast terms, and indications…

  15. The Value of Weather Forecast in Irrigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, X.; Wang, D.

    2007-12-01

    This paper studies irrigation scheduling (when and how much water to apply during the crop growth season) in the Havana Lowlands region, Illinois, using meteorological, agronomic and agricultural production data from 2002. Irrigation scheduling determines the timing and amount of water applied to an irrigated cropland during the crop growing season. In this study a hydrologic-agronomic simulation is coupled with an optimization algorithm to search for the optimal irrigation schedule under various weather forecast horizons. The economic profit of irrigated corn from an optimized scheduling is compared to that from and the actual schedule, which is adopted from a pervious study. Extended and reliable climate prediction and weather forecast are found to be significantly valuable. If a weather forecast horizon is long enough to include the critical crop growth stage, in which crop yield bears the maximum loss over all stages, much economic loss can be avoided. Climate predictions of one to two months, which can cover the critical period, might be even more beneficial during a dry year. The other purpose of this paper is to analyze farmers' behavior in irrigation scheduling by comparing the "actual" schedule to the "optimized" ones. The ultimate goal of irrigation schedule optimization is to provide information to farmers so that they may modify their behavior. In practice, farmers' decision may not follow an optimal irrigation schedule due to the impact of various factors such as natural conditions, policies, farmers' habits and empirical knowledge, and the uncertain or inexact information that they receive. In this study farmers' behavior in irrigation decision making is analyzed by comparing the "actual" schedule to the "optimized" ones. This study finds that the identification of the crop growth stage with the most severe water stress is critical for irrigation scheduling. For the case study site in the year of 2002, framers' response to water stress was found to be

  16. Development of a High Resolution Weather Forecast Model for Mesoamerica Using the NASA Ames Code I Private Cloud Computing Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molthan, Andrew; Case, Jonathan; Venner, Jason; Moreno-Madrinan, Max J.; Delgado, Francisco

    2012-01-01

    Two projects at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have collaborated to develop a high resolution weather forecast model for Mesoamerica: The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, which integrates unique NASA satellite and weather forecast modeling capabilities into the operational weather forecasting community. NASA's SERVIR Program, which integrates satellite observations, ground-based data, and forecast models to improve disaster response in Central America, the Caribbean, Africa, and the Himalayas.

  17. Numerical weather forecasting with anelastic model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wójcik, Damian; Kurowski, Marcin; Piotrowski, Zbigniew; Rosa, Bogdan; Ziemiański, Michał

    2013-04-01

    Research conducted at Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute, in collaboration with Consortium for Small Scale Modeling (COSMO) are aimed at developing new conservative dynamical core for next generation operational weather prediction model. Within the frames of the project a new prototype model has been developed. The dynamical core of the model is based on anelastic set of equation and numerics adopted from the EULAG model. An employment of EULAG allowed to profit from its desirable conservative properties and numerical robustness confirmed in number of benchmark tests and widely documented in scientific literature. The first stage of the project has been already successfully completed. Its main achievement is a hybrid model capable to compute weather forecast. The model consists of EULAG dynamical core implemented into the software environment of the operational COSMO model and basic COSMO physical parameterizations involving turbulence, friction, radiation, moist processes and surface fluxes (COSMO-EULAG). The presentation shows the case studies comparing results of 24-hour forecasts calculated via the hybrid model with analogous results obtained with the Runge-Kutta dynamical core standard for the COSMO operational applications. The experiments are performed with 2.2 km resolution over Alpine domain of operational MeteoSwiss numerical forecasts. The results demonstrate that the short-term forecasts employing different dynamical cores are qualitatively and quantitatively similar, especially in the middle and upper troposphere. Near the surface the COSMO-EULAG results, while similar to the Runge-Kutta ones, show more small-scale variability. It is seen that the anelastic approximation does not impose measurable adverse affects on the forecast. The presentation shows also results of another class of experiments. They involve 24-hour forecast with COSMO-EULAG over realistic Alpine domain with the horizontal resolutions of

  18. Space Weather Studies at Istanbul Technical University

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaymaz, Zerefsan

    2016-07-01

    This presentation will introduce the Upper Atmosphere and Space Weather Laboratory of Istanbul Technical University (ITU). It has been established to support the educational needs of the Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics in 2011 to conduct scientific research in Space Weather, Space Environment, Space Environment-Spacecraft Interactions, Space instrumentation and Upper Atmospheric studies. Currently the laboratory has some essential infrastructure and the most instrumentation for ionospheric observations and ground induced currents from the magnetosphere. The laboratory has two subunits: SWIFT dealing with Space Weather Instrumentation and Forecasting unit and SWDPA dealing with Space Weather Data Processing and Analysis. The research area covers wide range of upper atmospheric and space science studies from ionosphere, ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling, magnetic storms and magnetospheric substorms, distant magnetotail, magnetopause and bow shock studies, as well as solar and solar wind disturbances and their interaction with the Earth's space environment. We also study the spacecraft environment interaction and novel plasma instrument design. Several scientific projects have been carried out in the laboratory. Operational objectives of our laboratory will be carried out with the collaboration of NASA's Space Weather Laboratory and the facilities are in the process of integration to their prediction services. Educational and research objectives, as well as the examples from the research carried out in our laboratory will be demonstrated in this presentation.

  19. Small Sensors for Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicholas, A. C.

    2015-12-01

    The Naval Research Laboratory is actively pursuing enhancing the nation's space weather sensing capability. One aspect of this plan is the concept of flying Space Weather sensor suites on host spacecraft as secondary payloads. The emergence and advancement of the CubeSat spacecraft architecture has produced a viable platform for scientifically and operationally relevant Space Weather sensing. This talk will provide an overview of NRL's low size weight and power sensor technologies targeting Space Weather measurements. A summary of on-orbit results of past and current missions will be presented, as well as an overview of future flights that are manifested and potential constellation missions.

  20. International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, Nat; Davila, Joseph M.

    2010-01-01

    The International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is an international scientific program to understand the external drivers of space weather. The science and applications of space weather has been brought to prominence because of the rapid development of space based technology that is useful for all human beings. The ISWI program has its roots in the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) program that ran during 2007 - 2009. The primary objective of the ISWI program is to advance the space weather science by a combination of instrument deployment, analysis and interpretation of space weather data from the deployed instruments in conjunction with space data, and communicate the results to the public and students. Like the IHY, the ISWI will be a grass roots organization with key participation from national coordinators in cooperation with an international steering committee. This talk outlines the ISWI program including its organization and proposed activities.

  1. Updates on CCMC Activities and GSFC Space Weather Services

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhengm Y.; Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Maddox, M.; Taktakishvili, A.; Berrios, D.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Macneice, P.; Mays, L.; Mendoza, A. M.; Mullinix, R.

    2011-01-01

    In this presentation, we provide updates on CCMC modeling activities, CCMC metrics and validation studies, and other CCMC efforts. In addition, an overview of GSFC Space Weather Services (a sibling organization to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) and its products/capabilities will be given. We show how some of the research grade models, if running in an operational mode, can help address NASA's space weather needs by providing forecasting/now casting capabilities of significant space weather events throughout the solar system.

  2. Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III; Hood, Doris

    2009-01-01

    Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Shuttle Flight Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to create a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) that indicates the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input. The tool creates a graphic depicting the potential location of thunderstorm anvils one, two, and three hours into the future. The locations are based on the average of the upper level observed or forecasted winds. The graphic includes 10 and 20 n mi standoff circles centered at the location of interest, as well as one-, two-, and three-hour arcs in the upwind direction. The arcs extend outward across a 30 sector width based on a previous AMU study that determined thunderstorm anvils move in a direction plus or minus 15 of the upper-level wind direction. The AMU was then tasked to transition the tool to the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). SMG later requested the tool be updated to provide more flexibility and quicker access to model data. This presentation describes the work performed by the AMU to transition the tool into AWIPS, as well as the subsequent improvements made to the tool.

  3. Space Weather Outreach: Connection to STEM Standards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dusenbery, P. B.

    2008-12-01

    Many scientists are studying the Sun-Earth system and attempting to provide timely, accurate, and reliable space environment observations and forecasts. Research programs and missions serve as an ideal focal point for creating educational content, making this an ideal time to inform the public about the importance and value of space weather research. In order to take advantage of this opportunity, the Space Science Institute (SSI) is developing a comprehensive Space Weather Outreach program to reach students, educators, and other members of the public, and share with them the exciting discoveries from this important scientific discipline. The Space Weather Outreach program has the following five components: (1) the Space Weather Center Website that includes online educational games; (2) Small Exhibits for Libraries, Shopping Malls, and Science Centers; (3) After-School Programs; (4) Professional Development Workshops for Educators, and (5) an innovative Evaluation and Education Research project. Its overarching goal is to inspire, engage, and educate a broad spectrum of the public and make strategic and innovative connections between informal and K-12 education communities. An important factor in the success of this program will be its alignment with STEM standards especially those related to science and mathematics. This presentation will describe the Space Weather Outreach program and how standards are being used in the development of each of its components.

  4. Presenting Critical Space Weather Information to Customers and Stakeholders (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viereck, R. A.; Singer, H. J.; Murtagh, W. J.; Rutledge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Space weather involves changes in the near-Earth space environment that impact technological systems such as electric power, radio communication, satellite navigation (GPS), and satellite opeartions. As with terrestrial weather, there are several different kinds of space weather and each presents unique challenges to the impacted technologies and industries. But unlike terrestrial weather, many customers are not fully aware of space weather or how it impacts their systems. This issue is further complicated by the fact that the largest space weather events occur very infrequently with years going by without severe storms. Recent reports have estimated very large potential costs to the economy and to society if a geomagnetic storm were to cause major damage to the electric power transmission system. This issue has come to the attention of emergency managers and federal agencies including the office of the president. However, when considering space weather impacts, it is essential to also consider uncertainties in the frequency of events and the predicted impacts. The unique nature of space weather storms, the specialized technologies that are impacted by them, and the disparate groups and agencies that respond to space weather forecasts and alerts create many challenges to the task of communicating space weather information to the public. Many customers that receive forecasts and alerts are highly technical and knowledgeable about the subtleties of the space environment. Others know very little and require ongoing education and explanation about how a space weather storm will affect their systems. In addition, the current knowledge and understanding of the space environment that goes into forecasting storms is quite immature. It has only been within the last five years that physics-based models of the space environment have played important roles in predictions. Thus, the uncertainties in the forecasts are quite large. There is much that we don't know about space

  5. Space weather monitoring and forecasting in South America: products from the user requests to the development of regional magnetic indices and GNSS vertical error maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Padilha, Antonio; Takahashi, Hisao; Souza, Jonas; Mendes, Odim; Batista, Inez S.; SantAnna, Nilson; Gatto, Rubens; Costa, D. Joaquim

    On August 2007 the National Institute for Space Research started a task force to develop and operate a space weather program, which is kwon by the acronyms Embrace that stands for the Portuguese statement “Estudo e Monitoramento BRAasileiro de Clima Espacial” Program (Brazilian Space Weather Study and Monitoring program). The main purpose of the Embrace Program is to monitor the space climate and weather from sun, interplanetary space, magnetosphere and ionosphere-atmosphere, and to provide useful information to space related communities, technological, industrial and academic areas. Since then we have being visiting several different space weather costumers and we have host two workshops of Brazilian space weather users at the Embrace facilities. From the inputs and requests collected from the users the Embrace Program decided to monitored several physical parameters of the sun-earth environment through a large ground base network of scientific sensors and under collaboration with space weather centers partners. Most of these physical parameters are daily published on the Brazilian space weather program web portal, related to the entire network sensors available. A comprehensive data bank and an interface layer are under development to allow an easy and direct access to the useful information. Nowadays, the users will count on products derived from a GNSS monitor network that covers most of the South American territory; a digisonde network that monitors the ionospheric profiles in two equatorial sites and in one low latitude site; several solar radio telescopes to monitor solar activity, and a magnetometer network, besides a global ionospheric physical model. Regarding outreach, we publish a daily bulletin in Portuguese with the status of the space weather environment on the Sun, in the Interplanetary Medium and close to the Earth. Since December 2011, all these activities are carried out at the Embrace Headquarter, a building located at the INPE's main campus

  6. Extracting Space Weather Information from Research Models: Opportunities and Challenges

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael

    2010-01-01

    In addition to supporting space research in the international community, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has as its second objective to apply the power of modern research models toward space weather specification and forecasting. Motivated by the objectives to test models and to ease the transition of research models to space weather forecasting organizations, the CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as a large number of modeling and data products for space weather forecasting support. Over time, these activities have produced tailored products for partners, as well as tools, which address the space weather needs of NASA's robotic mission community. All tools are accessible via a configurable, flexible interface. During this process, CCMC has accumulated substantial experience in understanding model performance, as well as in the design and execution of realtime systems. This presentation will focus on lessons learned and it will suggest low hanging fruit for transition to operations at partner agencies.

  7. CCMC/Space Weather Research Center: Overview and Future Space Weather Needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Y.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Maddox, M. M.

    2015-12-01

    Space Weather Research Center (SWRC), part of the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), was established in 2010 to address emerging space weather needs of NASA robotic missions. By leveraging CCMC's modeling capabilities and through collaborations with different NASA centers, government agencies, educational institutions and multiple entities worldwide, SWRC provides research-based space weather forecasting, monitoring and anomaly support to NASA users. SWRC analyst team has also helped to identify limitations of current models and thus accelerate R2O-O2R process. In addition, the establishment of SWRC has added a new dimension to CCMC's education program. In this presentation, an overview of SWRC activities will be given. Future research and modeling needs will be discussed from the perspective of a space weather analyst.

  8. Weather Forecasting From Woolly Art to Solid Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lynch, P.

    THE PREHISTORY OF SCIENTIFIC FORECASTING Vilhelm Bjerknes Lewis Fry Richardson Richardson's Forecast THE BEGINNING OF MODERN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION John von Neumann and the Meteorology Project The ENIAC Integrations The Barotropic Model Primitive Equation Models NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION TODAY ECMWF HIRLAM CONCLUSIONS REFERENCES

  9. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  10. An introduction to Space Weather Integrated Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhong, D.; Feng, X.

    2012-12-01

    The need for a software toolkit that integrates space weather models and data is one of many challenges we are facing with when applying the models to space weather forecasting. To meet this challenge, we have developed Space Weather Integrated Modeling (SWIM) that is capable of analysis and visualizations of the results from a diverse set of space weather models. SWIM has a modular design and is written in Python, by using NumPy, matplotlib, and the Visualization ToolKit (VTK). SWIM provides data management module to read a variety of spacecraft data products and a specific data format of Solar-Interplanetary Conservation Element/Solution Element MHD model (SIP-CESE MHD model) for the study of solar-terrestrial phenomena. Data analysis, visualization and graphic user interface modules are also presented in a user-friendly way to run the integrated models and visualize the 2-D and 3-D data sets interactively. With these tools we can locally or remotely analysis the model result rapidly, such as extraction of data on specific location in time-sequence data sets, plotting interplanetary magnetic field lines, multi-slicing of solar wind speed, volume rendering of solar wind density, animation of time-sequence data sets, comparing between model result and observational data. To speed-up the analysis, an in-situ visualization interface is used to support visualizing the data 'on-the-fly'. We also modified some critical time-consuming analysis and visualization methods with the aid of GPU and multi-core CPU. We have used this tool to visualize the data of SIP-CESE MHD model in real time, and integrated the Database Model of shock arrival, Shock Propagation Model, Dst forecasting model and SIP-CESE MHD model developed by SIGMA Weather Group at State Key Laboratory of Space Weather/CAS.

  11. Space weather: European Space Agency perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daly, E. J.; Hilgers, A.

    Spacecraft and payloads have become steadily more sophisticated and therefore more susceptible to space weather effects. ESA has long been active in applying models and tools to the problems associated with such effects on its spacecraft. In parallel, ESA and European agencies have built a highly successful solar-terrestrial physics capability. ESA is now investigating the marriage of these technological and scientific capabilities to address perceived user needs for space weather products and services. Two major ESA-sponsored studies are laying the groundwork for a possible operational European space weather service. The wide-ranging activities of ESA in the Space Weather/Space Environment domain are summarized and recent important examples of space weather concerns given.

  12. Space Weathering: An Ultraviolet Indicator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendrix, A. R.; Vilas, F.

    2003-01-01

    We present evidence suggesting that the spectral slope of airless bodies in the UV-visible wavelength range can be used as an indicator of exposure to space weathering. While space weathering generally produces a reddening of spectra in the visible-NIR spectral regions, it tends to result in a bluing of the UV-visible portion of the spectrum, and may in some cases produce a spectral reversal. The bluing effect may be detectable with smaller amounts of weathering than are necessary to detect the longer-wavelength weathering effects.

  13. Space Weathering: An Ultraviolet Indicator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendrix, A. R.; Vilas, F.

    2004-01-01

    We present evidence suggesting that the spectral slope of airless bodies in the UV-visible wavelength range can be used as an indicator of exposure to space weathering. While space weathering generally produces a reddening of spectra in the visible-NIR spectral regions, it tends to result in a bluing of the UV-visible portion of the spectrum, and may in some cases produce a spectral reversal. The bluing effect may be detectable with smaller amounts of weathering than are necessary to detect the longer-wavelength weathering effects.

  14. Training Early Career Space Weather Researchers and other Space Weather Professionals at the CISM Space Weather Summer School

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gross, N. A.; Hughes, W.

    2011-12-01

    This talk will outline the organization of a summer school designed to introduce young professions to a sub-discipline of geophysics. Through out the 10 year life time of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) the CISM Team has offered a two week summer school that introduces new graduate students and other interested professional to the fundamentals of space weather. The curriculum covers basic concepts in space physics, the hazards of space weather, and the utility of computer models of the space environment. Graduate students attend from both inside and outside CISM, from all the sub-disciplines involved in space weather (solar, heliosphere, geomagnetic, and aeronomy), and from across the nation and around the world. In addition, between 1/4 and 1/3 of the participants each year are professionals involved in space weather in some way, such as: forecasters from NOAA and the Air Force, Air Force satellite program directors, NASA specialists involved in astronaut radiation safety, and representatives from industries affected by space weather. The summer school has adopted modern pedagogy that has been used successfully at the undergraduate level. A typical daily schedule involves three morning lectures followed by an afternoon lab session. During the morning lectures, student interaction is encouraged using "Timeout to Think" questions and peer instruction, along with question cards for students to ask follow up questions. During the afternoon labs students, working in groups of four, answer thought provoking questions using results from simulations and observation data from a variety of source. Through the interactions with each other and the instructors, as well as social interactions during the two weeks, students network and form bonds that will last them through out their careers. We believe that this summer school can be used as a model for summer schools in a wide variety of disciplines.

  15. Synopsis of the Review on Space Weather in Latin America: Space Science, Research Networks and Space Weather Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dasso, Sergio; Gonzalez-Esparza, Americo

    2016-07-01

    The present work is a synopsis of a three-part review on space weather in Latin America. The first paper (part 1) comprises the evolution of several Latin American institutions investing in space science since the 1960's, focusing on the solar-terrestrial interactions, which today is commonly called space weather. Despite recognizing advances in space research in all of Latin America, this part 1 is restricted to the development observed in three countries in particular (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico), due to the fact that these countries have recently developed operational centers for monitoring space weather. The review starts with a brief summary of the first groups to start working with space science in Latin America. This first part of the review closes with the current status and the research interests of these groups, which are described in relation to the most significant works and challenges of the next decade in order to aid in the solving of space weather open issues. The second paper (part 2) comprises a summary of scientific challenges in space weather research that are considered to be open scientific questions and how they are being addressed in terms of instrumentation by the international community, including the Latin American groups. We also provide an inventory of the networks and collaborations being constructed in Latin America, including details on the data processing, capabilities and a basic description of the resulting variables. These instrumental networks currently used for space science research are gradually being incorporated into the space weather monitoring data pipelines as their data provides key variables for monitoring and forecasting space weather, which allow these centers to monitor space weather and issue warnings and alerts. The third paper (part 3) presents the decision process for the spinning off of space weather prediction centers from space science groups with our interpretation of the reason/opportunities that leads to

  16. Incorporating weather uncertainty in demand forecasts for electricity market planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ziser, C. J.; Dong, Z. Y.; Wong, K. P.

    2012-07-01

    A major component of electricity network planning is to ensure supply capability into the future, through generation and transmission development. Accurate forecasts of maximum demand are a crucial component of this process, with future weather conditions having a large impact on forecast accuracy. This article presents an improved methodology for the consideration of weather uncertainty in electricity demand forecasts. Case studies based on the Australian national electricity market are used to validate the proposed methodology.

  17. Evaluation and economic value of winter weather forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snyder, Derrick W.

    State and local highway agencies spend millions of dollars each year to deploy winter operation teams to plow snow and de-ice roadways. Accurate and timely weather forecast information is critical for effective decision making. Students from Purdue University partnered with the Indiana Department of Transportation to create an experimental winter weather forecast service for the 2012-2013 winter season in Indiana to assist in achieving these goals. One forecast product, an hourly timeline of winter weather hazards produced daily, was evaluated for quality and economic value. Verification of the forecasts was performed with data from the Rapid Refresh numerical weather model. Two objective verification criteria were developed to evaluate the performance of the timeline forecasts. Using both criteria, the timeline forecasts had issues with reliability and discrimination, systematically over-forecasting the amount of winter weather that was observed while also missing significant winter weather events. Despite these quality issues, the forecasts still showed significant, but varied, economic value compared to climatology. Economic value of the forecasts was estimated to be 29.5 million or 4.1 million, depending on the verification criteria used. Limitations of this valuation system are discussed and a framework is developed for more thorough studies in the future.

  18. Space weather prediction by cosmic rays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mavromichalaki, H.; Souvatzoglou, G.; Sarlanis, C.; Mariatos, G.; Plainaki, C.; Gerontidou, M.; Belov, A.; Eroshenko, E.; Yanke, V.

    Relativistic (galactic and solar) cosmic rays (CR) registered by neutron monitors can play a useful key-role in space weather storms forecasting and in the specification of magnetic properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), shocks and ground level enhancements (GLEs). In order to produce a real-time prediction of space weather phenomena, only real-time data from a neutron monitor network should be employed. Recently in Athens cosmic-ray station a real-time data collection and acquisition system has been created in collaboration with the cosmic ray group of IZMIRAN. This system collects data in real-time mode from about 15 real-time cosmic ray stations by using the internet. The main server in Athens station collects 5-min and hourly cosmic ray data. The measurements of all stations are being processed automatically while converted into a suitable form, so as to be serviceably for forecasting purposes. All programs have been written in an expandable form, in order to upgrade the network of real-time neutron monitors with the biggest possible number of stations, easily. Programs which make use of these data for forecasting studies are already running in experimental mode. The increased number of NM stations operating in real time provides a good basis for using Neutron Monitor network as a tool of forecasting the arrival of the interplanetary disturbances at the Earth.

  19. The International Space Weather Initiative

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nat, Gopalswamy; Joseph, Davila; Barbara, Thompson

    2010-01-01

    The International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is a program of international cooperation aimed at understanding the external drivers of space weather. The ISWI program has its roots in the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) program that ran during 2007 - 2009 and will continue with those aspects that directly affect life on Earth. The primary objective of the ISWI program is to advance the space weather science by a combination of instrument deployment, analysis and interpretation of space weather data from the deployed instruments in conjunction with space data, and communicate the results to the public and students. Like the IHY, the ISWI will be a grass roots organization with key participation from national coordinators in cooperation with an international steering committee. This presentation outlines the ISWI program including its organizational aspects and proposed activities. The ISWI observatory deployment and outreach activities are highly complementary to the CAWSES II activities of SCOSTEP.

  20. A Milestone in Commercial Space Weather: USTAR Center for Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobiska, W.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Thompson, D. C.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.; Gardner, L. C.

    2009-12-01

    As of 2009, Utah State University (USU) hosts a new organization to develop commercial space weather applications using funding that has been provided by the State of Utah’s Utah Science Technology and Research (USTAR) initiative. The USTAR Center for Space Weather (UCSW) is located on the USU campus in Logan, Utah and is developing innovative applications for mitigating adverse space weather effects in technological systems. Space weather’s effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the Sun’s photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere is the key region that affects communication and navigation systems. The UCSW has developed products for users of systems that are affected by space weather-driven ionospheric changes. For example, on September 1, 2009 USCW released, in conjunction with Space Environment Technologies, the world’s first real-time space weather via an iPhone app. Space WX displays the real-time, current global ionosphere total electron content along with its space weather drivers; it is available through the Apple iTunes store and is used around the planet. The Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system is now being run operationally in real-time at UCSW with the continuous ingestion of hundreds of global data streams to dramatically improve the ionosphere’s characterization. We discuss not only funding and technical advances that have led to current products but also describe the direction for UCSW that includes partnering opportunities for moving commercial space weather into fully automated specification and forecasting over the next half decade.

  1. Space Weather Models at the CCMC And Their Capabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael; Rastatter, Lutz; MacNeice, Peter; Kuznetsova, Masha

    2007-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second focus of CCMC activities is on validation and verification of space weather models, and on the transition of appropriate models to space weather forecast centers. As part of the latter activity, the CCMC develops real-time simulation systems that stress models through routine execution. A by-product of these real-time calculations is the ability to derive model products, which may be useful for space weather operators. In this presentation, we will provide an overview of the community-provided, space weather-relevant, model suite, which resides at CCMC. We will discuss current capabilities, and analyze expected future developments of space weather related modeling.

  2. Space weather and commercial airlines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, J. B. L.; Bentley, R. D.; Hunter, R.; Iles, R. H. A.; Taylor, G. C.; Thomas, D. J.

    Space weather phenomena can effect many areas of commercial airline operations including avionics, communications and GPS navigation systems. Of particular importance at present is the recently introduced EU legislation requiring the monitoring of aircrew radiation exposure, including any variations at aircraft altitudes due to solar activity. With the introduction of new ultra-long-haul “over-the-pole” routes, “more-electric” aircraft in the future, and the increasing use of satellites in the operation, the need for a better understanding of the space weather impacts on future airline operations becomes all the more compelling. This paper will present the various space weather effects, some provisional results of an ongoing 3-year study to monitor cosmic radiation in aircraft, and conclude by summarising some of the identified key operational issues, which must be addressed, with the help of the science community, if the airlines want to benefit from the availability of space weather services.

  3. Modeled Forecasts of Dengue Fever in San Juan, Puerto Rico Using NASA Satellite Enhanced Weather Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morin, C.; Quattrochi, D. A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.

    2015-12-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is an important mosquito transmitted disease that is strongly influenced by meteorological and environmental conditions. Recent research has focused on forecasting DF case numbers based on meteorological data. However, these forecasting tools have generally relied on empirical models that require long DF time series to train. Additionally, their accuracy has been tested retrospectively, using past meteorological data. Consequently, the operational utility of the forecasts are still in question because the error associated with weather and climate forecasts are not reflected in the results. Using up-to-date weekly dengue case numbers for model parameterization and weather forecast data as meteorological input, we produced weekly forecasts of DF cases in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Each week, the past weeks' case counts were used to re-parameterize a process-based DF model driven with updated weather forecast data to generate forecasts of DF case numbers. Real-time weather forecast data was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) system enhanced using additional high-resolution NASA satellite data. This methodology was conducted in a weekly iterative process with each DF forecast being evaluated using county-level DF cases reported by the Puerto Rico Department of Health. The one week DF forecasts were accurate especially considering the two sources of model error. First, weather forecasts were sometimes inaccurate and generally produced lower than observed temperatures. Second, the DF model was often overly influenced by the previous weeks DF case numbers, though this phenomenon could be lessened by increasing the number of simulations included in the forecast. Although these results are promising, we would like to develop a methodology to produce longer range forecasts so that public health workers can better prepare for dengue epidemics.

  4. Space Weathering of Small Bodies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McFadden, L. A.

    2002-12-01

    Space weathering is defined as any process that wears away and alters surfaces, here confined to small bodies in the Solar System. Mechanisms which possibly alter asteroid and comet surfaces include solar wind bombardment, UV radiation, cosmic ray bombardment, micrometeorite bombardment. These processes are likely to contribute to surface processes differently. For example, solar wind bombardment would be more important on a body closer to the Sun compared to a comet where cosmic ray bombardment might be a more significant weathering mechanism. How can we measure the effects of space weathering? A big problem is that we don't know the nature of the surface before it was weathered. We are in a new era in the study of surface processes on small bodies brought about by the availability of spatially resolved, color and spectral measurements of asteroids from Galileo and NEAR. What processes are active on which bodies? What physics controls surface processes in different regions of the solar system? How do processes differ on different bodies of different physical and chemical properties? What combinations of observable parameters best address the nature of surface processes? Are there alternative explanations for the observed parameters that have been attributed to space weathering? Should we retain the term, space weathering? How can our understanding of space weathering on the Moon help us understand it on asteroids and comets? Finally, we have to leave behind some presuppositions, one being that there is evidence of space weathering based on the fact that the optical properties of S-type asteroids differs from those of ordinary chondrites.

  5. Use of EOS Data in AWIPS for Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Haines, Stephanie L.; Suggs, Ron J.; Bradshaw, Tom; Darden, Chris; Burks, Jason

    2003-01-01

    Operational weather forecasting relies heavily on real time data and modeling products for forecast preparation and dissemination of significant weather information to the public. The synthesis of this information (observations and model products) by the meteorologist is facilitated by a decision support system to display and integrate the information in a useful fashion. For the NWS this system is called Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). Over the last few years NASA has launched a series of new Earth Observation Satellites (EOS) for climate monitoring that include several instruments that provide high-resolution measurements of atmospheric and surface features important for weather forecasting and analysis. The key to the utilization of these unique new measurements by the NWS is the real time integration of the EOS data into the AWIPS system. This is currently being done in the Huntsville and Birmingham NWS Forecast Offices under the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Program. This paper describes the use of near real time MODIS and AIRS data in AWIPS to improve the detection of clouds, moisture variations, atmospheric stability, and thermal signatures that can lead to significant weather development. The paper and the conference presentation will focus on several examples where MODIS and AIRS data have made a positive impact on forecast accuracy. The results of an assessment of the utility of these products for weather forecast improvement made at the Huntsville NWS Forecast Office will be presented.

  6. Briefing highlights space weather risks to GPS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tretkoff, Ernie

    2011-07-01

    Solar storms, which are expected to increase as the Sun nears the most active phase of the solar cycle, can disrupt a variety of technologies on which society relies. Speakers at a 22 June briefing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D. C., focused on how space weather can affect the Global Positioning System (GPS), which is used in a wide range of industries, including commercial air travel, agriculture, national security, and emergency response. Rocky Stone, chief technical pilot for United Airlines, noted that GPS allows more aircraft to be in airspace, saves fuel, and helps aircraft move safely on runways. “Improvements in space weather forecasting need to be pursued,” he said. Precision GPS has also “changed the whole nature of farming,” said Ron Hatch, Director of Navigation Systems, NavCom Technology/John Deere. GPS makes it possible for tractors to be driven in the most efficient paths and for fertilizer and water to be applied precisely to the areas that most need them. Space weather-induced degradation of GPS signals can cause significant loss to farms that rely on GPS. Elizabeth Zimmerman, Deputy Associate Administrator for the Office of Response and Recovery at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), described how FEMA relies on GPS for disaster recovery. The agency is developing an operations plan for dealing with space weather, she said.

  7. Satellite Sounder Data Assimilation for Improving Alaska Region Weather Forecast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhu, Jiang; Stevens, E.; Zhang, X.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Heinrichs, T.; Broderson, D.

    2014-01-01

    A case study and monthly statistical analysis using sounder data assimilation to improve the Alaska regional weather forecast model are presented. Weather forecast in Alaska faces challenges as well as opportunities. Alaska has a large land with multiple types of topography and coastal area. Weather forecast models must be finely tuned in order to accurately predict weather in Alaska. Being in the high-latitudes provides Alaska greater coverage of polar orbiting satellites for integration into forecasting models than the lower 48. Forecasting marine low stratus clouds is critical to the Alaska aviation and oil industry and is the current focus of the case study. NASA AIRS/CrIS sounder profiles data are used to do data assimilation for the Alaska regional weather forecast model to improve Arctic marine stratus clouds forecast. Choosing physical options for the WRF model is discussed. Preprocess of AIRS/CrIS sounder data for data assimilation is described. Local observation data, satellite data, and global data assimilation data are used to verify and/or evaluate the forecast results by the MET tools Model Evaluation Tools (MET).

  8. How accurate are the weather forecasts for Bierun (southern Poland)?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gawor, J.

    2012-04-01

    Weather forecast accuracy has increased in recent times mainly thanks to significant development of numerical weather prediction models. Despite the improvements, the forecasts should be verified to control their quality. The evaluation of forecast accuracy can also be an interesting learning activity for students. It joins natural curiosity about everyday weather and scientific process skills: problem solving, database technologies, graph construction and graphical analysis. The examination of the weather forecasts has been taken by a group of 14-year-old students from Bierun (southern Poland). They participate in the GLOBE program to develop inquiry-based investigations of the local environment. For the atmospheric research the automatic weather station is used. The observed data were compared with corresponding forecasts produced by two numerical weather prediction models, i.e. COAMPS (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) developed by Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, USA; it runs operationally at the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling in Warsaw, Poland and COSMO (The Consortium for Small-scale Modelling) used by the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. The analysed data included air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, wind chill and sea level pressure. The prediction periods from 0 to 24 hours (Day 1) and from 24 to 48 hours (Day 2) were considered. The verification statistics that are commonly used in meteorology have been applied: mean error, also known as bias, for continuous data and a 2x2 contingency table to get the hit rate and false alarm ratio for a few precipitation thresholds. The results of the aforementioned activity became an interesting basis for discussion. The most important topics are: 1) to what extent can we rely on the weather forecasts? 2) How accurate are the forecasts for two considered time ranges? 3) Which precipitation threshold is the most predictable? 4) Why

  9. Weather Forecasting: Sunny Days Are Ahead. Resources in Technology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skena, George

    1992-01-01

    Discusses the history of weather forecasting from the Babylonians to today's computers and provides information on snow, hail, sleet, fog, winds, clouds, and fronts. Includes possible student outcomes and a student quiz. (JOW)

  10. Is It Going to Rain Today? Understanding the Weather Forecast.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Allsopp, Jim; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Presents a resource for science teachers to develop a better understanding of weather forecasts, including outlooks, watches, warnings, advisories, severe local storms, winter storms, floods, hurricanes, nonprecipitation hazards, precipitation probabilities, sky condition, and UV index. (MKR)

  11. Mexican Space Weather Service (SCIESMEX)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez-Esparza, A.; De la Luz, V.; Mejia-Ambriz, J. C.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E.; Corona-Romero, P.; Gonzalez, L. X.

    2015-12-01

    Recent modifications of the Civil Protection Law in Mexico include now specific mentions to space hazards and space weather phenomena. During the last few years, the UN has promoted international cooperation on Space Weather awareness, studies and monitoring. Internal and external conditions motivated the creation of a Space Weather Service in Mexico (SCIESMEX). The SCIESMEX (www.sciesmex.unam.mx) is operated by the Geophysics Institute at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). The UNAM has the experience of operating several critical national services, including the National Seismological Service (SSN); besides that has a well established scientific group with expertise in space physics and solar- terrestrial phenomena. The SCIESMEX is also related with the recent creation of the Mexican Space Agency (AEM). The project combines a network of different ground instruments covering solar, interplanetary, geomagnetic, and ionospheric observations. The SCIESMEX has already in operation computing infrastructure running the web application, a virtual observatory and a high performance computing server to run numerical models. SCIESMEX participates in the International Space Environment Services (ISES) and in the Inter-progamme Coordination Team on Space Weather (ICTSW) of the Word Meteorological Organization (WMO).

  12. Space Weathering Processes on Mercury

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noble, S. K.; Pieters, C. M.

    2002-01-01

    Like the Moon, Mercury has no atmosphere to protect it from the harsh space environment and therefore it is expected that it will incur the effects of space weathering. These weathering processes are capable of both creating regolith and altering its optical properties. However, there are many important differences between the environments of Mercury and the Moon. These environmental differences will almost certainly affect the weathering processes as well as the products of those processes. It should be possible to observe the effects of these differences in Vis/NIR spectra of the type expected to be returned by MESSENGER. More importantly, understanding these weathering processes and their consequences is essential for evaluating the spectral data returned from MESSENGER and other missions in order to determine the mineralogy and the iron content of the Mercurian surface. Theoretical and experimental work has been undertaken in order to better understand these consequences.

  13. Space Weather Products at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael

    2010-01-01

    In addition to supporting space research in the international community, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has as its second objective to bring to apply the power of modern research models toward space weather specification and forecasting. Initially motivated by the objective to test models and to ease the transition of research models to space weather forecasting organization, the CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as large number of modeling and data products for space weather forecasting. Over time, these activities have evolved into tailored products for partners, as well as into a direct support of the space weather needs within NASA robotic mission community. Accessible through a customizable interface, users within the US or at partnering institutions internationally have access to space weather tools driven by the most advanced space research models. Through partnering with agencies and institutions in the US and abroad, the CCMC strives to set up further data sharing agreements to the benefit of all participating institutions. In this presentation, we provide an overview of existing CCMC space weather services and products, and we will explore additional avenues for international collaborations.

  14. Geography Department Weather Forecasting Contests in the 21st Century

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skeeter, Brent R.

    2006-01-01

    The benefits of weather forecasting contests within geography departments are reaffirmed. The greatly increased ease of conducting such contests in the new millennium is stressed. Some of the specifics of the forecasting contest at Salisbury University are discussed. In addition, the advantages of a departmental contest over a national contest are…

  15. Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profile on Regional Weather Forecast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovee, Gary

    2010-01-01

    Prudent assimilation of AIRS thermodynamic profiles and quality indicators can improve initial conditions for regional weather models. AIRS-enhanced analysis has warmer and moister PBL. Forecasts with AIRS profiles are generally closer to NAM analyses than CNTL. Assimilation of AIRS leads to an overall QPF improvement in 6-h accumulated precipitation forecasts. Including AIRS profiles in assimilation process enhances the moist instability and produces stronger updrafts and a better precipitation forecast than the CNTL run.

  16. Space Weather Workshop 2010 to Be Held in April

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peltzer, Thomas

    2010-03-01

    The annual Space Weather Workshop will be held in Boulder, Colo., 27-30 April 2010. The workshop will bring customers, forecasters, commercial service providers, researchers, and government agencies together in a lively dialogue about space weather. The workshop will include 4 days of plenary sessions on a variety of topics, with poster sessions focusing on the Sun, interplanetary space, the magnetosphere, and the ionosphere. The conference will address the remarkably diverse impacts of space weather on today's technology. Highlights on this year's agenda include ionospheric storms and their impacts on the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), an update on NASA's recently launched Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), and new space weather-related activities in the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Also this year, the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group will feature a presentation by former NOAA administrator, Vice Admiral Conrad Lautenbacher, U.S. Navy (Ret.).

  17. Interplanetary Disturbances Affecting Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert F.

    2014-01-01

    The Sun somehow accelerates the solar wind, an incessant stream of plasma originating in coronal holes and some, as yet unidentified, regions. Occasionally, coronal, and possibly sub-photospheric structures, conspire to energize a spectacular eruption from the Sun which we call a coronal mass ejection (CME). These can leave the Sun at very high speeds and travel through the interplanetary medium, resulting in a large-scale disturbance of the ambient background plasma. These interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) can drive shocks which in turn accelerate particles, but also have a distinct intrinsic magnetic structure which is capable of disturbing the Earth's magnetic field and causing significant geomagnetic effects. They also affect other planets, so they can and do contribute to space weather throughout the heliosphere. This paper presents a historical review of early space weather studies, a modern-day example, and discusses space weather throughout the heliosphere.

  18. A survey of customers of space weather information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schrijver, C. J.; Rabanal, J. P.

    2013-09-01

    We present an analysis of the users of space weather information based on 2783 responses to an online survey among subscribers of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center e-mail services. The survey requested information focused on the three NOAA space weather scales: geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, and radio blackouts. Space weather information is most commonly obtained for reasons of human safety and continuity or reliability of operations. The information is primarily used for situational awareness, as aid to understand anomalies, to avoid impacts on current and near-future operations by implementing mitigating strategies, and to prepare for potential near-future impacts that might occur in conjunction with contingencies that include electric power outages or GPS perturbations. Interest in, anticipated impacts from, and responses to the three main categories of space weather are quite uniform across societal sectors. Approximately 40% of the respondents expect serious to very serious impacts from space weather events if no action were taken to mitigate or in the absence of adequate space weather information. The impacts of space weather are deemed to be substantially reduced because of the availability of, and their response to, space weather forecasts and alerts. Current and near-future space weather conditions are generally highly valued, considered useful, and generally, though not fully, adequate to avoid or mitigate societal impacts. We conclude that even among those receiving space weather information, there is considerable uncertainty about the possible impacts of space weather and thus about how to act on the space weather information that is provided.

  19. 2011 Space Weather Workshop to Be Held in April

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peltzer, Thomas

    2011-04-01

    The annual Space Weather Workshop will be held in Boulder, Colo., 26-29 April 2011. The workshop will bring customers, forecasters, commercial service providers, researchers, and government agencies together in a lively dialogue about space weather. The workshop will include 4 days of plenary sessions on a variety of topics, with poster sessions focusing on the Sun, interplanetary space, the magnetosphere, and the ionosphere. The conference will address the remarkably diverse impacts of space weather on today's technology. Highlights on this year's agenda will include presentations on space weather impacts on the Global Positioning System (GPS), the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory's (STEREO) mission milestone of a 360° view of the Sun, the latest from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), and space weather impacts on emergency response by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Additionally, the vulnerabilities of satellites and the power grid to space weather will be addressed. Additional highlights will include the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group's (CSWIG) roundtable session and a presentation from the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM). The CSWIG roundtable session on the growth of the space weather enterprise will feature distinguished panelists. As always, lively interaction between the audience and the panel is anticipated. The OFCM will present the National Space Weather Program's new strategic plan.

  20. Validation of Space Weather Models at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuznetsova, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Hesse, M.; Chulaki, A.; Maddox, M.

    2011-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multiagency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather modes. CCMC goal is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. The presentation will demonstrate the recent progress in CCMC metrics and validation activities.

  1. Forecast and virtual weather driven plant disease risk modeling system

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We describe a system in use and development that leverages public weather station data, several spatialized weather forecast types, leaf wetness estimation, generic plant disease models, and online statistical evaluation. Convergent technological developments in all these areas allow, with funding f...

  2. Space weather near Earth and energetic particles: selected results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kudela, K.

    2013-02-01

    Space weather effects have two links to research of energetic particles in space. First, the direct one, connected with the interaction of high energy cosmic particles including galactic, solar cosmic rays, as well as magnetospheric particles, with various materials as satellite systems, atmosphere, ionosphere, airplane systems, human body at high altitudes and in space. Second one, the indirect relations, is checking the relevance of possible forecasts of space weather phenomena according to the data of energetic particles both on the ground and on the satellites and space probes. We review few selected aspects of the second type of relations with references mainly to recent studies, namely (i) progress in description of selected quasi-periodicities in cosmic ray time series which are of potential use for space weather studies, (ii) status in the forecast of geoeffective and radiation storm alerts using signatures of ground-based observations, (iii) problem of relativistic electrons in the vicinity of Earth.

  3. Communicating space weather to policymakers and the wider public

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreira, Bárbara

    2014-05-01

    As a natural hazard, space weather has the potential to affect space- and ground-based technological systems and cause harm to human health. As such, it is important to properly communicate this topic to policymakers and the general public alike, informing them (without being unnecessarily alarmist) about the potential impact of space-weather phenomena and how these can be monitored and mitigated. On the other hand, space weather is related to interesting phenomena on the Sun such as coronal-mass ejections, and incorporates one of the most beautiful displays in the Earth and its nearby space environment: aurora. These exciting and fascinating aspects of space weather should be cultivated when communicating this topic to the wider public, particularly to younger audiences. Researchers have a key role to play in communicating space weather to both policymakers and the wider public. Space scientists should have an active role in informing policy decisions on space-weather monitoring and forecasting, for example. And they can exercise their communication skills by talking about space weather to school children and the public in general. This presentation will focus on ways to communicate space weather to wider audiences, particularly policymakers. It will also address the role researchers can play in this activity to help bridge the gap between the space science community and the public.

  4. Uncertainty forecasts improve weather-related decisions and attenuate the effects of forecast error.

    PubMed

    Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

    2012-03-01

    Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather warning system is used. The work reported here tested the relative benefits of several forecast formats, comparing decisions made with and without uncertainty forecasts. In three experiments, participants assumed the role of a manager of a road maintenance company in charge of deciding whether to pay to salt the roads and avoid a potential penalty associated with icy conditions. Participants used overnight low temperature forecasts accompanied in some conditions by uncertainty estimates and in others by decision advice comparable to categorical warnings. Results suggested that uncertainty information improved decision quality overall and increased trust in the forecast. Participants with uncertainty forecasts took appropriate precautionary action and withheld unnecessary action more often than did participants using deterministic forecasts. When error in the forecast increased, participants with conventional forecasts were reluctant to act. However, this effect was attenuated by uncertainty forecasts. Providing categorical decision advice alone did not improve decisions. However, combining decision advice with uncertainty estimates resulted in the best performance overall. The results reported here have important implications for the development of forecast formats to increase compliance with severe weather warnings as well as other domains in which one must act in the face of uncertainty.

  5. Uncertainty forecasts improve weather-related decisions and attenuate the effects of forecast error.

    PubMed

    Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

    2012-03-01

    Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather warning system is used. The work reported here tested the relative benefits of several forecast formats, comparing decisions made with and without uncertainty forecasts. In three experiments, participants assumed the role of a manager of a road maintenance company in charge of deciding whether to pay to salt the roads and avoid a potential penalty associated with icy conditions. Participants used overnight low temperature forecasts accompanied in some conditions by uncertainty estimates and in others by decision advice comparable to categorical warnings. Results suggested that uncertainty information improved decision quality overall and increased trust in the forecast. Participants with uncertainty forecasts took appropriate precautionary action and withheld unnecessary action more often than did participants using deterministic forecasts. When error in the forecast increased, participants with conventional forecasts were reluctant to act. However, this effect was attenuated by uncertainty forecasts. Providing categorical decision advice alone did not improve decisions. However, combining decision advice with uncertainty estimates resulted in the best performance overall. The results reported here have important implications for the development of forecast formats to increase compliance with severe weather warnings as well as other domains in which one must act in the face of uncertainty. PMID:21875244

  6. Post Processing Numerical Weather Prediction Model Rainfall Forecasts for Use in Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, D. L.; Robertson, D.; Bennett, J.; Ward, P.; Wang, Q. J.

    2012-12-01

    Through the water information research and development alliance (WIRADA) project, CSIRO is conducting research to improve flood and short-term streamflow forecasting services delivered by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. WIRADA aims to build and test systems to generate ensemble flood and short-term streamflow forecasts with lead times of up to 10 days by integrating rainfall forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and hydrological modelling. Here we present an overview of the latest progress towards developing this system. Rainfall during the forecast period is a major source of uncertainty in streamflow forecasting. Ensemble rainfall forecasts are used in streamflow forecasting to characterise the rainfall uncertainty. In Australia, NWP models provide forecasts of rainfall and other weather conditions for lead times of up to 10 days. However, rainfall forecasts from Australian NWP models are deterministic and often contain systematic errors. We use a simplified Bayesian joint probability (BJP) method to post-process rainfall forecasts from the latest generation of Australian NWP models. The BJP method generates reliable and skilful ensemble rainfall forecasts. The post-processed rainfall ensembles are then used to force a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall runoff model to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The performance of the ensemble streamflow forecasts is evaluated on a number of Australian catchments and the benefits of using post processed rainfall forecasts are demonstrated.

  7. Ionospheric research for space weather service support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stanislawska, Iwona; Gulyaeva, Tamara; Dziak-Jankowska, Beata

    2016-07-01

    Knowledge of the behavior of the ionosphere is very important for space weather services. A wide variety of ground based and satellite existing and future systems (communications, radar, surveillance, intelligence gathering, satellite operation, etc) is affected by the ionosphere. There are the needs for reliable and efficient support for such systems against natural hazard and minimalization of the risk failure. The joint research Project on the 'Ionospheric Weather' of IZMIRAN and SRC PAS is aimed to provide on-line the ionospheric parameters characterizing the space weather in the ionosphere. It is devoted to science, techniques and to more application oriented areas of ionospheric investigation in order to support space weather services. The studies based on data mining philosophy increasing the knowledge of ionospheric physical properties, modelling capabilities and gain applications of various procedures in ionospheric monitoring and forecasting were concerned. In the framework of the joint Project the novel techniques for data analysis, the original system of the ionospheric disturbance indices and their implementation for the ionosphere and the ionospheric radio wave propagation are developed since 1997. Data of ionosonde measurements and results of their forecasting for the ionospheric observatories network, the regional maps and global ionospheric maps of total electron content from the navigational satellite system (GNSS) observations, the global maps of the F2 layer peak parameters (foF2, hmF2) and W-index of the ionospheric variability are provided at the web pages of SRC PAS and IZMIRAN. The data processing systems include analysis and forecast of geomagnetic indices ap and kp and new eta index applied for the ionosphere forecasting. For the first time in the world the new products of the W-index maps analysis are provided in Catalogues of the ionospheric storms and sub-storms and their association with the global geomagnetic Dst storms is

  8. The impact of Sun-weather research on forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larsen, M. F.

    1979-01-01

    The possible impact of Sun-weather research on forecasting is examined. The type of knowledge of the effect is evaluated to determine if it is in a form that can be used for forecasting purposes. It is concluded that the present understanding of the effect does not lend itself readily to applications for forecast purposes. The limits of present predictive skill are examined and it is found that skill is most lacking for prediction of the smallest scales of atmospheric motion. However, it is not expected that Sun-weather research will have any significant impact on forecasting the smaller scales since predictability at these scales is limited by the finite grid size resolution and the time scales of turbulent diffusion. The predictability limits for the largest scales are on the order of several weeks although presently only a one week forecast is achievable.

  9. Interactive 3D visualisation of ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rautenhaus, Marc; Grams, Christian M.; Schäfler, Andreas; Westermann, Rüdiger

    2013-04-01

    We investigate the feasibility of interactive 3D visualisation of ensemble weather predictions in a way suited for weather forecasting during aircraft-based atmospheric field campaigns. The study builds upon our previous work on web-based, 2D visualisation of numerical weather prediction data for the purpose of research flight planning (Rautenhaus et al., Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 55-71, 2012). Now we explore how interactive 3D visualisation of ensemble forecasts can be used to quickly identify atmospheric features relevant to a flight and to assess their uncertainty. We use data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) and present techniques to interactively visualise the forecasts on a commodity desktop PC with a state-of-the-art graphics card. Major objectives of this study are: (1) help the user transition from the ``familiar'' 2D views (horizontal maps and vertical cross-sections) to 3D visualisation by putting interactive 2D views into a 3D context and enriching them with 3D elements, at the same time (2) maintain a high degree of quantitativeness in the visualisation to facilitate easy interpretation; (3) exploitation of the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) for maximum interactivity; (4) investigation of how visualisation can be performed directly from datasets on ECMWF hybrid model levels; (5) development of a basic forecasting tool that provides synchronized navigation through forecast base and lead times, as well as through the ensemble dimension and (6) interactive computation and visualisation of ensemble-based quantities. A prototype of our tool was used for weather forecasting during the aircraft-based T-NAWDEX-Falcon field campaign, which took place in October 2012 at the German Aerospace Centre's (DLR) Oberpfaffenhofen base. We reconstruct the forecast of a warm conveyor belt situation that occurred during the campaign and discuss challenges and opportunities posed by employing three

  10. Asteroids: Does Space Weathering Matter?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gaffey, Michael J.

    2001-01-01

    The interpretive calibrations and methodologies used to extract mineralogy from asteroidal spectra appear to remain valid until the space weathering process is advanced to a degree which appears to be rare or absent on asteroid surfaces. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  11. Space weather throughout the heliosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Intriligator, Devrie S.; Detman, Thomas; Intriligator, James; Dryer, Murray; Sun, Wei; Deehr, Charles; Webber, William R.; Decker, Robert B.; McPherron, Robert L.

    2012-11-01

    We have analyzed space weather throughout the heliosphere using the three-dimensional (3D) timedependent magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Hybrid Heliospheric Modeling System with Pickup Protons (HHMS-PI) [1] out to Voyager 2 (V2) and beyond by comparing the HHMS-PI model results with the available spacecraft data. We also have analyzed space weather throughout the heliosphere through in-depth analyses of the available simultaneous data from a number of instruments on spacecraft at various locations. In this paper we focus on our HHMS-PI modeling (starting at the Sun) of the Halloween 2003 solar events by comparing the model results with spacecraft data at ACE and Ulysses. For the Halloween 2003 solar events we also summarize our inter-comparisons of the in-situ V2 data from many of the V2 instruments. These analyses of the comparisons ("benchmarking") of HHMS-PI simulations and the various spacecraft data and of our in-depth analyses of the V2 particle and field data indicate that particle acceleration and other important physical processes are associated with the heliospheric propagation of these large solar cycle 23 space weather events. We conclude that space weather, originating at the Sun, can have important affects throughout the heliosphere to distances as great as 73 AU and beyond.

  12. Community Coordinated Modeling Center: A Powerful Resource in Space Science and Space Weather Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chulaki, A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; MacNeice, P. J.; Shim, J. S.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Mendoza, A. M. M.; Zheng, Y.; Mullinix, R.; Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Maddox, M. M.; Pembroke, A. D.; Wiegand, C.

    2015-12-01

    Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a NASA affiliated interagency partnership with the primary goal of aiding the transition of modern space science models into space weather forecasting while supporting space science research. Additionally, over the past ten years it has established itself as a global space science education resource supporting undergraduate and graduate education and research, and spreading space weather awareness worldwide. A unique combination of assets, capabilities and close ties to the scientific and educational communities enable this small group to serve as a hub for raising generations of young space scientists and engineers. CCMC resources are publicly available online, providing unprecedented global access to the largest collection of modern space science models (developed by the international research community). CCMC has revolutionized the way simulations are utilized in classrooms settings, student projects, and scientific labs and serves hundreds of educators, students and researchers every year. Another major CCMC asset is an expert space weather prototyping team primarily serving NASA's interplanetary space weather needs. Capitalizing on its unrivaled capabilities and experiences, the team provides in-depth space weather training to students and professionals worldwide, and offers an amazing opportunity for undergraduates to engage in real-time space weather monitoring, analysis, forecasting and research. In-house development of state-of-the-art space weather tools and applications provides exciting opportunities to students majoring in computer science and computer engineering fields to intern with the software engineers at the CCMC while also learning about the space weather from the NASA scientists.

  13. NASA's Internal Space Weather Working Group

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    St. Cyr, O. C.; Guhathakurta, M.; Bell, H.; Niemeyer, L.; Allen, J.

    2011-01-01

    Measurements from many of NASA's scientific spacecraft are used routinely by space weather forecasters, both in the U.S. and internationally. ACE, SOHO (an ESA/NASA collaboration), STEREO, and SDO provide images and in situ measurements that are assimilated into models and cited in alerts and warnings. A number of years ago, the Space Weather laboratory was established at NASA-Goddard, along with the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. Within that organization, a space weather service center has begun issuing alerts for NASA's operational users. NASA's operational user community includes flight operations for human and robotic explorers; atmospheric drag concerns for low-Earth orbit; interplanetary navigation and communication; and the fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles, high altitude aircraft, and launch vehicles. Over the past three years we have identified internal stakeholders within NASA and formed a Working Group to better coordinate their expertise and their needs. In this presentation we will describe this activity and some of the challenges in forming a diverse working group.

  14. The Role of GLEs in Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flueckiger, E. O.; Buetikofer, R.; Desorgher, L.; Moser, M. R.

    Ground level enhancements GLEs i e the sudden increases in the count rates of ground-based cosmic ray detectors e g neutron monitors are the manifestation of short-time energetic solar particle radiation near Earth With a variety of direct and indirect effects on geospace humans industry and economy relativistic solar particle events are at the same time one of the main but also one of the most uncertain factors in the space weather domain In all space weather scenarios cosmic ray measurements are included as an additional forecasting tool as a monitoring instrument and as a key provider of input parameters for modeling Major applications are the protection of aircrew and astronauts from the effects of enhanced particle radiation but further applications e g meteorological and climatic influences are possible On the basis of selected examples e g January 20 2005 and from a statistical perspective the paper reviews selected characteristics of high-energy solar particle events such as the peak flux the event integrated 10 MeV total proton fluence the spectrum and anisotropy as well as the rate of occurrence Advanced analysis and modeling techniques are illustrated and the role of cosmic ray measurements and GLE analysis e g based on observations with the worldwide network of neutron monitors is evaluated in view of real-time monitoring forecasting and post-event analysis of the interplanetary radiation environments

  15. How are Space Weather and Space Climate Connected to Solar Phenomena?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Many aspects of modern society are susceptible to space weather effects. Pertinent space weather effects include high-energy electromagnetic and particle radiation, changes of atmospheric drag, reduction of GPS accuracy or complete loss of GPS signals, communication outages, and the generation of potentially harmful DC currents in our electric power grid. Beginning in the early 1990s, researchers and government have been increasingly aware of the need to understand the causes of space weather, and to find ways to mitigate deleterious effects associated with it. New research and development programs have been created to address space weather primarily at NASA but also at other agencies. This investment has been very fruitful by generating a new class of entirely new space weather specification and forecast capabilities. This presentation provides an overview of space weather causes and effects, as well as of research and development to forecast and mitigate space weather effects. It will include a discussion of modern space weather analysis and forecasting, and conclude by pointing out paths into the future.

  16. Adaptive Numerical Algorithms in Space Weather Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Toth, Gabor; vanderHolst, Bart; Sokolov, Igor V.; DeZeeuw, Darren; Gombosi, Tamas I.; Fang, Fang; Manchester, Ward B.; Meng, Xing; Nakib, Dalal; Powell, Kenneth G.; Stout, Quentin F.; Glocer, Alex; Ma, Ying-Juan; Opher, Merav

    2010-01-01

    Space weather describes the various processes in the Sun-Earth system that present danger to human health and technology. The goal of space weather forecasting is to provide an opportunity to mitigate these negative effects. Physics-based space weather modeling is characterized by disparate temporal and spatial scales as well as by different physics in different domains. A multi-physics system can be modeled by a software framework comprising of several components. Each component corresponds to a physics domain, and each component is represented by one or more numerical models. The publicly available Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) can execute and couple together several components distributed over a parallel machine in a flexible and efficient manner. The framework also allows resolving disparate spatial and temporal scales with independent spatial and temporal discretizations in the various models. Several of the computationally most expensive domains of the framework are modeled by the Block-Adaptive Tree Solar wind Roe Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) code that can solve various forms of the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equations, including Hall, semi-relativistic, multi-species and multi-fluid MHD, anisotropic pressure, radiative transport and heat conduction. Modeling disparate scales within BATS-R-US is achieved by a block-adaptive mesh both in Cartesian and generalized coordinates. Most recently we have created a new core for BATS-R-US: the Block-Adaptive Tree Library (BATL) that provides a general toolkit for creating, load balancing and message passing in a 1, 2 or 3 dimensional block-adaptive grid. We describe the algorithms of BATL and demonstrate its efficiency and scaling properties for various problems. BATS-R-US uses several time-integration schemes to address multiple time-scales: explicit time stepping with fixed or local time steps, partially steady-state evolution, point-implicit, semi-implicit, explicit/implicit, and fully implicit numerical

  17. Adaptive numerical algorithms in space weather modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tóth, Gábor; van der Holst, Bart; Sokolov, Igor V.; De Zeeuw, Darren L.; Gombosi, Tamas I.; Fang, Fang; Manchester, Ward B.; Meng, Xing; Najib, Dalal; Powell, Kenneth G.; Stout, Quentin F.; Glocer, Alex; Ma, Ying-Juan; Opher, Merav

    2012-02-01

    Space weather describes the various processes in the Sun-Earth system that present danger to human health and technology. The goal of space weather forecasting is to provide an opportunity to mitigate these negative effects. Physics-based space weather modeling is characterized by disparate temporal and spatial scales as well as by different relevant physics in different domains. A multi-physics system can be modeled by a software framework comprising several components. Each component corresponds to a physics domain, and each component is represented by one or more numerical models. The publicly available Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) can execute and couple together several components distributed over a parallel machine in a flexible and efficient manner. The framework also allows resolving disparate spatial and temporal scales with independent spatial and temporal discretizations in the various models. Several of the computationally most expensive domains of the framework are modeled by the Block-Adaptive Tree Solarwind Roe-type Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) code that can solve various forms of the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations, including Hall, semi-relativistic, multi-species and multi-fluid MHD, anisotropic pressure, radiative transport and heat conduction. Modeling disparate scales within BATS-R-US is achieved by a block-adaptive mesh both in Cartesian and generalized coordinates. Most recently we have created a new core for BATS-R-US: the Block-Adaptive Tree Library (BATL) that provides a general toolkit for creating, load balancing and message passing in a 1, 2 or 3 dimensional block-adaptive grid. We describe the algorithms of BATL and demonstrate its efficiency and scaling properties for various problems. BATS-R-US uses several time-integration schemes to address multiple time-scales: explicit time stepping with fixed or local time steps, partially steady-state evolution, point-implicit, semi-implicit, explicit/implicit, and fully implicit

  18. Space Weather Models and Their Validation and Verification at the CCMC

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael

    2010-01-01

    The Community Coordinated l\\lodeling Center (CCMC) is a US multi-agency activity with a dual mission. With equal emphasis, CCMC strives to provide science support to the international space research community through the execution of advanced space plasma simulations, and it endeavors to support the space weather needs of the CS and partners. Space weather support involves a broad spectrum, from designing robust forecasting systems and transitioning them to forecasters, to providing space weather updates and forecasts to NASA's robotic mission operators. All of these activities have to rely on validation and verification of models and their products, so users and forecasters have the means to assign confidence levels to the space weather information. In this presentation, we provide an overview of space weather models resident at CCMC, as well as of validation and verification activities undertaken at CCMC or through the use of CCMC services.

  19. Health Issues and Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crosby, N.

    2009-04-01

    The possibility that solar activity and variations in the Earth's magnetic field may affect human health has been debated for many decades but is still a "scientific topic" in its infancy. By learning whether and, if so, how much the Earth's space weather can influence the daily health of people will be of practical importance. Knowing whether human genetics, include regulating factors that take into account fluctuations of the Earth's magnetic field and solar disturbances, indeed exist will also benefit future interplanetary space travelers. Because the atmospheres on other planets are different from ours, as well as their interaction with the space environment, one may ask whether we are equipped with the genetics necessary to take this variability into account. The goal of this presentation is to define what is meant by space weather as a health risk and identify the long-term socio-economic effects on society that such health risks would have. Identifying the physical links between space weather sources and different effects on human health, as well as the parameters (direct and indirect) to be monitored, the potential for such a cross-disciplinary study will be invaluable, for scientists and medical doctors, as well as for engineers.

  20. Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, Phase II

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III

    2008-01-01

    Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Light Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) created a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display Systems (MIDDS) to indicate the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input.

  1. Time Relevance of Convective Weather Forecast for Air Traffic Automation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chan, William N.

    2006-01-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is handling nearly 120,000 flights a day through its Air Traffic Management (ATM) system and air traffic congestion is expected to increse substantially over the next 20 years. Weather-induced impacts to throughput and efficiency are the leading cause of flight delays accounting for 70% of all delays with convective weather accounting for 60% of all weather related delays. To support the Next Generation Air Traffic System goal of operating at 3X current capacity in the NAS, ATC decision support tools are being developed to create advisories to assist controllers in all weather constraints. Initial development of these decision support tools did not integrate information regarding weather constraints such as thunderstorms and relied on an additional system to provide that information. Future Decision Support Tools should move towards an integrated system where weather constraints are factored into the advisory of a Decision Support Tool (DST). Several groups such at NASA-Ames, Lincoln Laboratories, and MITRE are integrating convective weather data with DSTs. A survey of current convective weather forecast and observation data show they span a wide range of temporal and spatial resolutions. Short range convective observations can be obtained every 5 mins with longer range forecasts out to several days updated every 6 hrs. Today, the short range forecasts of less than 2 hours have a temporal resolution of 5 mins. Beyond 2 hours, forecasts have much lower temporal. resolution of typically 1 hour. Spatial resolutions vary from 1km for short range to 40km for longer range forecasts. Improving the accuracy of long range convective forecasts is a major challenge. A report published by the National Research Council states improvements for convective forecasts for the 2 to 6 hour time frame will only be achieved for a limited set of convective phenomena in the next 5 to 10 years. Improved longer range forecasts will be probabilistic

  2. Wind-Farm Forecasting Using the HARMONIE Weather Forecast Model and Bayes Model Averaging for Bias Removal.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Brien, Enda; McKinstry, Alastair; Ralph, Adam

    2015-04-01

    Building on previous work presented at EGU 2013 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876610213016068 ), more results are available now from a different wind-farm in complex terrain in southwest Ireland. The basic approach is to interpolate wind-speed forecasts from an operational weather forecast model (i.e., HARMONIE in the case of Ireland) to the precise location of each wind-turbine, and then use Bayes Model Averaging (BMA; with statistical information collected from a prior training-period of e.g., 25 days) to remove systematic biases. Bias-corrected wind-speed forecasts (and associated power-generation forecasts) are then provided twice daily (at 5am and 5pm) out to 30 hours, with each forecast validation fed back to BMA for future learning. 30-hr forecasts from the operational Met Éireann HARMONIE model at 2.5km resolution have been validated against turbine SCADA observations since Jan. 2014. An extra high-resolution (0.5km grid-spacing) HARMONIE configuration has been run since Nov. 2014 as an extra member of the forecast "ensemble". A new version of HARMONIE with extra filters designed to stabilize high-resolution configurations has been run since Jan. 2015. Measures of forecast skill and forecast errors will be provided, and the contributions made by the various physical and computational enhancements to HARMONIE will be quantified.

  3. Operational Space Weather Needs - Perspectives from SEASONS 2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Comberiate, J.; Kelly, M. A.; Paxton, L. J.; Schaefer, R. K.; Bust, G. S.; Sotirelis, T.; Fox, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    A key challenge for the operational space weather community is the gap between the latest scientific data, models, methods, and indices and those that are currently used in operational systems. The November 2014 SEASONS (Space Environment Applications, Systems, and Operations for National Security) Workshop at JHU/APL in Laurel, Maryland, brings together representatives from the operational and scientific communities. The theme of SEASONS 2014 is "Beyond Climatology," with a focus on how space weather events threaten operational assets and disrupt missions. Here we present perspectives from SEASONS 2014 on new observations, models in development, and forecasting methods that are of interest to the operational space weather community. Highlighted topics include ionospheric data assimilation and forecasting models, HF propagation models, radiation belt observations, and energetic particle modeling. The SEASONS 2014 web site can be found at https://secwww.jhuapl.edu/SEASONS/

  4. Sunspots, Space Weather and Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.

    2009-01-01

    Four hundred years ago this year the telescope was first used for astronomical observations. Within a year, Galileo in Italy and Harriot in England reported seeing spots on the surface of the Sun. Yet, it took over 230 years of observations before a Swiss amateur astronomer noticed that the sunspots increased and decreased in number over a period of about 11 years. Within 15 years of this discovery of the sunspot cycle astronomers made the first observations of a flare on the surface of the Sun. In the 150 years since that discovery we have learned much about sunspots, the sunspot cycle, and the Sun s explosive events - solar flares, prominence eruptions and coronal mass ejections that usually accompany the sunspots. These events produce what is called Space Weather. The conditions in space are dramatically affected by these events. Space Weather can damage our satellites, harm our astronauts, and affect our lives here on the surface of planet Earth. Long term changes in the sunspot cycle have been linked to changes in our climate as well. In this public lecture I will give an introduction to sunspots, the sunspot cycle, space weather, and the possible impact of solar variability on our climate.

  5. Weather Forecasting for Ka-band Operations: Initial Study Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morabito, D.; Wu, L.; Slobin, S.

    2016-08-01

    As lower frequency bands (e.g., 2.3 GHz and 8.4 GHz) have become oversubscribed during the past several decades, NASA has become interested in using higher frequency bands (e.g., 26 GHz and 32 GHz) for telemetry, thus making use of the available wider bandwidth. However, these bands are more susceptible to atmospheric degradation. Currently, flight projects tend to be conservative in preparing their communications links by using worst-case or conservative assumptions. Such assumptions result in nonoptimum data return. We explore the use of weather forecasting for Goldstone and Madrid for different weather condition scenarios to determine more optimal values of atmospheric attenuation and atmospheric noise temperature for use in telecommunication link design. We find that the use of weather forecasting can provide up to 2 dB or more of increased data return when more favorable conditions are forecast. Future plans involve further developing the technique for operational scenarios with interested flight projects.

  6. Uncertainty Forecasts Improve Weather-Related Decisions and Attenuate the Effects of Forecast Error

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joslyn, Susan L.; LeClerc, Jared E.

    2012-01-01

    Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather…

  7. Satellite Sounder Data Assimilation for Improving Alaska Region Weather Forecast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhu, Jiang; Stevens, E.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Zhang, X.; Heinrichs, T.; Broderson, D.

    2014-01-01

    Data assimilation has been demonstrated very useful in improving both global and regional numerical weather prediction. Alaska has very coarser surface observation sites. On the other hand, it gets much more satellite overpass than lower 48 states. How to utilize satellite data to improve numerical prediction is one of hot topics among weather forecast community in Alaska. The Geographic Information Network of Alaska (GINA) at University of Alaska is conducting study on satellite data assimilation for WRF model. AIRS/CRIS sounder profile data are used to assimilate the initial condition for the customized regional WRF model (GINA-WRF model). Normalized standard deviation, RMSE, and correlation statistic analysis methods are applied to analyze one case of 48 hours forecasts and one month of 24-hour forecasts in order to evaluate the improvement of regional numerical model from Data assimilation. The final goal of the research is to provide improved real-time short-time forecast for Alaska regions.

  8. Adapting a weather forecast model for greenhouse gas simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polavarapu, S. M.; Neish, M.; Tanguay, M.; Girard, C.; de Grandpré, J.; Gravel, S.; Semeniuk, K.; Chan, D.

    2015-12-01

    The ability to simulate greenhouse gases on the global domain is useful for providing boundary conditions for regional flux inversions, as well as for providing reference data for bias correction of satellite measurements. Given the existence of operational weather and environmental prediction models and assimilation systems at Environment Canada, it makes sense to use these tools for greenhouse gas simulations. In this work, we describe the adaptations needed to reasonably simulate CO2 with a weather forecast model. The main challenges were the implementation of a mass conserving advection scheme, and the careful implementation of a mixing ratio defined with respect to dry air. The transport of tracers through convection was also added, and the vertical mixing through the boundary layer was slightly modified. With all these changes, the model conserves CO2 mass well on the annual time scale, and the high resolution (0.9 degree grid spacing) permits a good description of synoptic scale transport. The use of a coupled meteorological/tracer transport model also permits an assessment of approximations needed in offline transport model approaches, such as the neglect of water vapour mass when computing a tracer mixing ratio with respect to dry air.

  9. Notes on a Vision for the Global Space Weather Enterprise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Head, James N.

    2015-07-01

    Space weather phenomena impacts human civilization on a global scale and hence calls for a global approach to research, monitoring, and operational forecasting. The Global Space Weather Enterprise (GSWE) could be arranged along lines well established in existing international frameworks related to space exploration or to the use of space to benefit humanity. The Enterprise need not establish a new organization, but could evolve from existing international organizations. A GSWE employing open architectural concepts could be arranged to promote participation by all interested States regardless of current differences in science and technical capacity. Such an Enterprise would engender capacity building and burden sharing opportunities.

  10. Extended time weather forecasts contributes to agricultural productivity estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Oliveira Cardoso, Andrea; Pinto, Hilton Silveira; de Ávila, Ana Maria Heuminski; da Silva Dias, Pedro Leite; Marin, Fabio Ricardo; Pilau, Felipe

    2010-11-01

    Weather conditions in critical periods of the vegetative crop development influence crop productivity, thus being a basic parameter for crop forecast. Reliable extended period weather forecasts may contribute to improve the estimation of agricultural productivity. The production of soybean plays an important role in the Brazilian economy, because this country is ranked among the largest producers of soybeans in the world. This culture can be significantly affected by water conditions, depending on the intensity of water deficit. This work explores the role of extended period weather forecasts for estimating soybean productivity in the southern part of Brazil, Passo Fundo, and Londrina (State of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, respectively) in the 2005/2006 harvest. The goal was to investigate the possible contribution of precipitation forecasts as a substitute for the use of climatological data on crop forecasts. The results suggest that the use of meteorological forecasts generate more reliable productivity estimates during the growth period than those generated only through climatological information.

  11. Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields

    SciTech Connect

    Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

    2005-09-26

    Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

  12. GPS Estimates of Integrated Precipitable Water Aid Weather Forecasters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, Angelyn W.; Gutman, Seth I.; Holub, Kirk; Bock, Yehuda; Danielson, David; Laber, Jayme; Small, Ivory

    2013-01-01

    Global Positioning System (GPS) meteorology provides enhanced density, low-latency (30-min resolution), integrated precipitable water (IPW) estimates to NOAA NWS (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis tration Nat ional Weather Service) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to provide improved model and satellite data verification capability and more accurate forecasts of extreme weather such as flooding. An early activity of this project was to increase the number of stations contributing to the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) GPS meteorology observing network in Southern California by about 27 stations. Following this, the Los Angeles/Oxnard and San Diego WFOs began using the enhanced GPS-based IPW measurements provided by ESRL in the 2012 and 2013 monsoon seasons. Forecasters found GPS IPW to be an effective tool in evaluating model performance, and in monitoring monsoon development between weather model runs for improved flood forecasting. GPS stations are multi-purpose, and routine processing for position solutions also yields estimates of tropospheric zenith delays, which can be converted into mm-accuracy PWV (precipitable water vapor) using in situ pressure and temperature measurements, the basis for GPS meteorology. NOAA ESRL has implemented this concept with a nationwide distribution of more than 300 "GPSMet" stations providing IPW estimates at sub-hourly resolution currently used in operational weather models in the U.S.

  13. Extreme Space Weather on Exoplanets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohen, O.; Drake, J. J.; Kashyap, V. L.; Glocer, A.; Garraffo, C.; Gombosi, T. I.

    2013-12-01

    The current search for exoplanets is focused on detecting Earth-like rocky planets in the habitable zone around faint, M-dwarf stars, where the definition of the habitable zone is the bounded distances from the star at which liquid water can exist on the planetary surface. However, other factors may play a role in the habitability of the planet. In particular, planets that orbit their host star in a close-in orbit, reside in an extreme space environment, where both the stellar wind and transient Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) can erode the planetary atmosphere. We present a detailed, three-dimensional modeling study of the space plasma physics of close-in exoplanets. The study includes the effect of the extreme space conditions on the planetary atmosphere, magnetospheric and upper atmosphere dynamics, extreme space weather on close-in planets, and star-planet magnetic interaction.

  14. Verification of Public Weather Forecasts Available via the Media.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brooks, Harold E.; Witt, Arthur; Eilts, Michael D.

    1997-10-01

    The question of who is the "best" forecaster in a particular media market is one that the public frequently asks. The authors have collected approximately one year's forecasts from the National Weather Service and major media presentations for Oklahoma City. Diagnostic verification procedures indicate that the question of best does not have a clear answer. All of the forecast sources have strengths and weaknesses, and it is possible that a user could take information from a variety of sources to come up with a forecast that has more value than any one individual source provides. The analysis provides numerous examples of the utility of a distributions-oriented approach to verification while also providing insight into the problems the public faces in evaluating the array of forecasts presented to them.

  15. Validation of Space Weather Models at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Maddox, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Berrios, D.; Zheng, Y.; MacNeice, P. J.; Shim, J.; Taktakishvili, A.; Chulaki, A.

    2011-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. Space weather models and coupled model chains hosted at the CCMC range from the solar corona to the Earth's upper atmosphere. CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as a large number of modeling and data products tailored to address the space weather needs of NASA's robotic missions. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. CCMC has been leading recent comprehensive modeling challenges under GEM, CEDAR and SHINE programs. The presentation will focus on experience in carrying out comprehensive and systematic validation of large sets of. space weather models

  16. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    SciTech Connect

    Lundquist, K. A.

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  17. Forecasting Weather with a Wave of the Hand

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    Building upon its successful collaboration with NASA, Cybernet introduced GestureStorm(TradeMark), a weather map management system that utilizes both body tracking and gesture recognition technology for televised weather reports. The GestureStorm software interface enables meteorologists to control the computerized visual effects on weather maps using hand gestures and body movements. Prior to this, meteorologists prepared scripted on-air reports to coincide with the timing of graphics on the computerized maps. They knew when and where weather and Doppler radar maps would appear on the monitor, but could not react in real time. Cybernet s new product frees forecasters from a script, enabling them to directly interact with the weather picture in real time, significantly reducing the preparation time for the broadcast. With this technology, meteorologists control the pace of the visuals and can incorporate spontaneous close-ups with simple hand movements. In cases of severe weather, meteorologists strive to report new information as quickly as possible. GestureStorm gives forecasters an edge as they track late-breaking storms. The reduced preparation and real-time interaction shave critical minutes from the time required to broadcast severe weather warnings.

  18. Convective scale weather analysis and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Purdom, J. F. W.

    1984-01-01

    How satellite data can be used to improve insight into the mesoscale behavior of the atmosphere is demonstrated with emphasis on the GOES-VAS sounding and image data. This geostationary satellite has the unique ability to observe frequently the atmosphere (sounders) and its cloud cover (visible and infrared) from the synoptic scale down to the cloud scale. These uniformly calibrated data sets can be combined with conventional data to reveal many of the features important in mesoscale weather development and evolution.

  19. Weather Research and Forecasting Model Wind Sensitivity Study at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Leela R.; Bauman, William H., III

    2008-01-01

    NASA prefers to land the space shuttle at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). When weather conditions violate Flight Rules at KSC, NASA will usually divert the shuttle landing to Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in Southern California. But forecasting surface winds at EAFB is a challenge for the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) forecasters due to the complex terrain that surrounds EAFB, One particular phenomena identified by SMG is that makes it difficult to forecast the EAFB surface winds is called "wind cycling". This occurs when wind speeds and directions oscillate among towers near the EAFB runway leading to a challenging deorbit bum forecast for shuttle landings. The large-scale numerical weather prediction models cannot properly resolve the wind field due to their coarse horizontal resolutions, so a properly tuned high-resolution mesoscale model is needed. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model meets this requirement. The AMU assessed the different WRF model options to determine which configuration best predicted surface wind speed and direction at EAFB, To do so, the AMU compared the WRF model performance using two hot start initializations with the Advanced Research WRF and Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical cores and compared model performance while varying the physics options.

  20. BUSEFL: The Boston University Space Environment Forecast Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Contos, A.R.; Sanchez, L.A.; Jorgensen, A.M.

    1996-07-01

    BUSEFL (Boston University Space Environment Forecast Laboratory) is a comprehensive, integrated project to address the issues and implications of space weather forecasting. An important goal of the BUSEFL mission is to serve as a testing ground for space weather algorithms and operational procedures. One such algorithm is the Magnetospheric Specification and Forecast Model (MSFM), which may be implemented in possible future space weather prediction centers. Boston University Student-satellite for Applications and Training (BUSAT), the satellite component of BUSEFL, will incorporate four experiments designed to measure (1) the earth{close_quote}s magnetic field, (2) distribution of energetic electrons trapped in the earth{close_quote}s radiation belts, (3) the mass and charge composition of the ion fluxes along the magnetic field lines and (4) the auroral forms at the foot of the field line in the auroral zones. Data from these experiments will be integrated into a ground system to evaluate space weather prediction codes. Data from the BUSEFL mission will be available to the scientific community and the public through media such as the World Wide Web (WWW). {copyright} {ital 1996 American Institute of Physics.}

  1. BUSEFL: The Boston University Space Environment Forecast Laboratory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Contos, Adam R.; Sanchez, Luis A.; Jorgensen, Anders M.

    1996-07-01

    BUSEFL (Boston University Space Environment Forecast Laboratory) is a comprehensive, integrated project to address the issues and implications of space weather forecasting. An important goal of the BUSEFL mission is to serve as a testing ground for space weather algorithms and operational procedures. One such algorithm is the Magnetospheric Specification and Forecast Model (MSFM), which may be implemented in possible future space weather prediction centers. Boston University Student-satellite for Applications and Training (BUSAT), the satellite component of BUSEFL, will incorporate four experiments designed to measure (1) the earth's magnetic field, (2) distribution of energetic electrons trapped in the earth's radiation belts, (3) the mass and charge composition of the ion fluxes along the magnetic field lines and (4) the auroral forms at the foot of the field line in the auroral zones. Data from these experiments will be integrated into a ground system to evaluate space weather prediction codes. Data from the BUSEFL mission will be available to the scientific community and the public through media such as the World Wide Web (WWW).

  2. The MST radar technique: Requirements for operational weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larsen, M. F.

    1983-01-01

    There is a feeling that the accuracy of mesoscale forecasts for spatial scales of less than 1000 km and time scales of less than 12 hours can be improved significantly if resources are applied to the problem in an intensive effort over the next decade. Since the most dangerous and damaging types of weather occur at these scales, there are major advantages to be gained if such a program is successful. The interest in improving short term forecasting is evident. The technology at the present time is sufficiently developed, both in terms of new observing systems and the computing power to handle the observations, to warrant an intensive effort to improve stormscale forecasting. An assessment of the extent to which the so-called MST radar technique fulfills the requirements for an operational mesoscale observing network is reviewed and the extent to which improvements in various types of forecasting could be expected if such a network is put into operation are delineated.

  3. Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rautenhaus, M.; Grams, C. M.; Schäfler, A.; Westermann, R.

    2015-07-01

    We present the application of interactive three-dimensional (3-D) visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX - North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment) campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) has been developed. Probabilities are derived from Lagrangian particle trajectories computed on the forecast wind fields of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system. Integration of the method into the 3-D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D, introduced in the first part of this study, facilitates interactive visualization of WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. We investigate the sensitivity of the method with respect to trajectory seeding and grid spacing of the forecast wind field. Furthermore, we propose a visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region and, thus, to assist the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. A case study, revisiting a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon, illustrates the practical application of Met.3D and demonstrates the use of 3-D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting and for planning flight routes in the medium forecast range (3 to 7 days before take-off).

  4. The Solar Atmosphere and Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bothmer, Volker

    -based observers. The remote-sensing observations undertaken by Yohkoh, followed by multi-wavelength movies from SoHO (Solar Heliospheric Observatory) and high resolution EUV imaging by TRACE (Transition Region and Coronal Explorer) have revealed to date that the Sun's atmosphere is highly dynamic and never at rest. Solar eruptions have been tracked into space in unprecedented detail. In combination with near-Earth satellites, their interplanetary and geo-space effects could be investigated in depth, having provided the roots for space weather forecasts. This chapter summarizes the discoveries about the origin and evolution of solar storms and their space weather effects, providing a comprehensive picture of the most important links in the Sun-Earth system. It finally provides an outlook to future research in the field of space weather.

  5. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  6. Flood forecasting using medium-range probabilistic weather prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gouweleeuw, B. T.; Thielen, J.; Franchello, G.; de de Roo, A. P. J.; Buizza, R.

    2005-10-01

    Following the developments in short- and medium-range weather forecasting over the last decade, operational flood forecasting also appears to show a shift from a so-called single solution or 'best guess' deterministic approach towards a probabilistic approach based on ensemble techniques. While this probabilistic approach is now more or less common practice and well established in the meteorological community, operational flood forecasters have only started to look for ways to interpret and mitigate for end-users the prediction products obtained by combining so-called Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models with rainfall-runoff models. This paper presents initial results obtained by combining deterministic and EPS hindcasts of the global NWP model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with the large-scale hydrological model LISFLOOD for two historic flood events: the river Meuse flood in January 1995 and the river Odra flood in July 1997. In addition, a possible way to interpret the obtained ensemble based stream flow prediction is proposed.

  7. Space Weather Impacts on Technological Infrastructures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murtagh, W.; Viereck, R. A.; Rutledge, R.

    2012-12-01

    The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), one of the nine National Weather Service (NWS), National Centers for Environmental Prediction, is the nation's official source for space weather alerts and warnings. The rapid advances in the technology sector and our fast growing dependency on space-based systems have resulted in an ever-increasing vulnerability to hazardous space weather. NWS efforts to support aviation, emergency response efforts, and electric power grids, now extend to space and solar storms. Other key sectors impacted by space weather include satellite communications, and GPS applications, which pervade modern society. And the concerns are growing as we approach the next solar maximum, expected to peak in 2013. This presentation will address the different types of space weather events and how they impact our technological infrastructure.

  8. Probabilistic flood warning using grand ensemble weather forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Y.; Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Wilson, M.; Freer, J.; McGregor, G.

    2009-04-01

    As the severity of floods increases, possibly due to climate and landuse change, there is urgent need for more effective and reliable warning systems. The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood warning system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and can lead to a high number of false or missed warnings. An ensemble of weather forecasts from one Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), when used on catchment hydrology, can provide improved early flood warning as some of the uncertainties can be quantified. EPS forecasts from a single weather centre only account for part of the uncertainties originating from initial conditions and stochastic physics. Other sources of uncertainties, including numerical implementations and/or data assimilation, can only be assessed if a grand ensemble of EPSs from different weather centres is used. When various models that produce EPS from different weather centres are aggregated, the probabilistic nature of the ensemble precipitation forecasts can be better retained and accounted for. The availability of twelve global EPSs through the 'THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for the design of an improved probabilistic flood forecasting framework. This work presents a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning on a meso-scale catchment. The upper reach of the River Severn catchment located in the Midlands Region of England is selected due to its abundant data for investigation and its relatively small size (4062 km2) (compared to the resolution of the NWPs). This choice was deliberate as we hypothesize that the uncertainty in the forcing of smaller catchments cannot be represented by a single EPS with a very limited number of ensemble members, but only through the variance given by a large number ensembles

  9. [50 years of the methodology of weather forecasting for medicine].

    PubMed

    Grigor'ev, K I; Povazhnaia, E L

    2014-01-01

    The materials reported in the present article illustrate the possibility of weather forecasting for the medical purposes in the historical aspect. The main characteristics of the relevant organizational and methodological approaches to meteoprophylaxis based of the standard medical forecasts are presented. The emphasis is laid on the priority of the domestic medical school in the development of the principles of diagnostics and treatment of meteosensitivity and meteotropic complications in the patients presenting with various diseases with special reference to their age-related characteristics.

  10. Improving GEFS Weather Forecasts for Indian Monsoon with Statistical Downscaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agrawal, Ankita; Salvi, Kaustubh; Ghosh, Subimal

    2014-05-01

    Weather forecast has always been a challenging research problem, yet of a paramount importance as it serves the role of 'key input' in formulating modus operandi for immediate future. Short range rainfall forecasts influence a wide range of entities, right from agricultural industry to a common man. Accurate forecasts actually help in minimizing the possible damage by implementing pre-decided plan of action and hence it is necessary to gauge the quality of forecasts which might vary with the complexity of weather state and regional parameters. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is one such perfect arena to check the quality of weather forecast not only because of the level of intricacy in spatial and temporal patterns associated with it, but also the amount of damage it can cause (because of poor forecasts) to the Indian economy by affecting agriculture Industry. The present study is undertaken with the rationales of assessing, the ability of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) in predicting ISMR over central India and the skill of statistical downscaling technique in adding value to the predictions by taking them closer to evidentiary target dataset. GEFS is a global numerical weather prediction system providing the forecast results of different climate variables at a fine resolution (0.5 degree and 1 degree). GEFS shows good skills in predicting different climatic variables but fails miserably over rainfall predictions for Indian summer monsoon rainfall, which is evident from a very low to negative correlation values between predicted and observed rainfall. Towards the fulfilment of second rationale, the statistical relationship is established between the reasonably well predicted climate variables (GEFS) and observed rainfall. The GEFS predictors are treated with multicollinearity and dimensionality reduction techniques, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Statistical relationship is

  11. A coordinated effort to address space weather and environment needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minow, J. I.; Spann, J. F.; Edwards, D.; Burns, D.; Gallagher, D. L.; Xapsos, M.; de Groh, K.

    2010-12-01

    The growing need for coordination of the many aspects of space environments is directly related to our increasing dependence on space assets. An obvious result is that there is a need for a coordinated effort to organize and make accessible the increasing number of space environment products that include space environment models and observations, material testing, and forecasting tools. This paper outlines a concept to establish a NASA-level Applied Spaceflight Environments (ASE) office that will provide coordination and funding for sustained multi-program support in three technical areas; (1) natural environments characterization and modeling, (2) environmental effects on materials and systems, (3) and operational and forecasting space environments modeling. Additionally the ASE office will serve as an entry point of contact for external users who wish to take advantage of data and assets associated with space environments, including space weather.

  12. A Coordinated Effort to Address Space Weather and Environment Needs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Minow, Joe; Spann, James F.; Edward, David L.; Burns, Howard D.; Gallagher, Dennis; Xapos, Mike; DeGroh, Kim

    2010-01-01

    The growing need for coordination of the many aspects of space environments is directly related to our increasing dependence on space assets. An obvious result is that there is a need for a coordinated effort to organize and make accessible the increasing number of space environment products that include space environment models and observations, material testing, and forecasting tools. This paper outlines a concept to establish a NASA-level Applied Spaceflight Environments (ASE) office that will provide coordination and funding for sustained multi-program support in three technical areas; (1) natural environments characterization and modeling, (2) environmental effects on materials and systems, (3) and operational and forecasting space environments modeling. Additionally the ASE office will serve as an entry point of contact for external users who wish to take advantage of data and assets associated with space environments, including space weather.

  13. Investigating Space Weather Events Impacting the Spitzer Space Telescope

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cheng, Leo Y.; Hunt, Joseph C. Jr.; Stowers, Kennis; Lowrance, Patrick; Stewart, Andrzej; Travis, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Our understanding of the dynamical process in the space environment has increased dramatically. A relatively new field of study called "Space Weather" has emerged in the last few decades. Fundamental to the study of space weather is an understanding of how space weather events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections impact spacecraft in varying orbits and distances around the Sun. Specialized space weather satellite monitoring systems operated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) allow scientists to predict space weather events affecting critical systems on and orbiting the Earth. However, the Spitzer Space Telescope is in an orbit far outside the areas covered by those space weather monitoring systems. This poses a challenge for the Spitzer's Mission Operations Team in determining whether space weather events affect Spitzer.

  14. Expert Systems and Weather Forecasting in the 4th and 5th Grade.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kirkwood, James J.; Gimblett, Randy H.

    1992-01-01

    Fourth and fifth graders built weather measuring instruments, entered data into a computer program that forecasted weather, and compared the resultant forecast with actual weather. As a result of their activities, students took a greater interest in weather phenomena, understood the computer program, and learned to think more logically. (LB)

  15. Recent Activities on the Embrace Space Weather Regional Warning Center: the New Space Weather Data Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dal Lago, Alisson; Mendes, Odim; Batista, Inez S.; SantAnna, Nilson; Gatto, Rubens; Takahashi, Hisao; Costa, D. Joaquim; Banik Padua, Marcelo; Campos Velho, Haroldo

    2016-07-01

    On August 2007 the National Institute for Space Research started a task force to develop and operate a space weather program, which is known by the acronyms Embrace that stands for the Portuguese statement "Estudo e Monitoramento BRAasileiro de Clima Espacial" Program (Brazilian Space Weather Study and Monitoring program). The mission of the Embrace/INPE program is to monitor the Solar-Terrestrial environment, the magnetosphere, the upper atmosphere and the ground induced currents to prevent effects on technological and economic activities. The Embrace/INPE system monitors the physical parameters of the Sun-Earth environment, such as Active Regions (AR) in the Sun and solar radiation by using radio telescope, Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) information by satellite and ground-based cosmic ray monitoring, geomagnetic activity by the magnetometer network, and ionospheric disturbance by ionospheric sounders and using data collected by four GPS receiver network, geomagnetic activity by a magnetometer network, and provides a forecasting for Total Electronic Content (TEC) - 24 hours ahead - using a version of the SUPIM model which assimilates the two latter data using nudging approach. Most of these physical parameters are daily published on the Brazilian space weather program web portal, related to the entire network sensors available. Regarding outreach, it has being published a daily bulletin in Portuguese and English with the status of the space weather environment on the Sun, the Interplanetary Medium and close to the Earth. Since December 2011, all these activities are carried out at the Embrace Headquarter, a building located at the INPE's main campus. Recently, a comprehensive data bank and an interface layer are under commissioning to allow an easy and direct access to all the space weather data collected by Embrace through the Embrace web Portal. The information being released encompasses data from: (a) the Embrace Digisonde Network (Embrace DigiNet) that monitors

  16. Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Leela R.; Hoeth, Brian; Blottman, Peter F.

    2007-01-01

    Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision at the Shuttle Landing Facility. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. Both the SMG and the MLB are currently implementing the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software into their operations. The WRF EMS software allows users to employ both dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model- the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many

  17. Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Leela R.; Hoeth, Brian; Blottman, Peter F.

    2007-01-01

    Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation at the Shuttle Landing Facility is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF5), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. This study specifically addresses the skill of different model configurations in forecasting warm season convective initiation. Numerous factors influence the development of convection over the Florida peninsula. These factors include sea breezes, river and lake breezes, the prevailing low-level flow, and convergent flow due to convex coastlines that enhance the sea breeze. The interaction of these processes produces the warm season convective patterns seen over the Florida peninsula. However, warm season convection remains one of the most poorly forecast meteorological parameters. To determine which

  18. American Meteorological Society Embraces Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCoy, Robert; Fisher, Genene

    2011-02-01

    Eight years ago, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) tentatively reached out to the space weather community by scheduling a day-and-a-half Space Weather Symposium (SWS) at its Annual Meeting. That symposium included briefings from operational and research agencies involved with space weather as well as a variety of talks targeting areas of interest common to meteorology and space weather. Topics included data assimilation, connections between the lower and upper atmosphere, new space weather sensors and models, and the economic and social impacts of space weather. That highly successful symposium led to a follow-on SWS every year at the AMS Annual Meeting. These meetings, combined with the release of an AMS policy statement on space weather (see http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/2008spaceweather_amsstatement.html and Fisher [2008]) and related studies in the AMS Policy Program, led the AMS Council to vote on making the space weather discipline a regular part of the society by creating a new Space Weather Committee for the Scientific and Technological Activities Commission (STAC) (http://www.ametsoc.org/stacpges/CommitteeDisplay/CommitteeDisplay.aspx?CC=SW). This is AMS's first new STAC committee in 20 years.

  19. Predicting Space Weather: Challenges for Research and Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singer, H. J.; Onsager, T. G.; Rutledge, R.; Viereck, R. A.; Kunches, J.

    2013-12-01

    Society's growing dependence on technologies and infrastructure susceptible to the consequences of space weather has given rise to increased attention at the highest levels of government as well as inspired the need for both research and improved space weather services. In part, for these reasons, the number one goal of the recent National Research Council report on a Decadal Strategy for Solar and Space Physics is to 'Determine the origins of the Sun's activity and predict the variations in the space environment.' Prediction of conditions in our space environment is clearly a challenge for both research and operations, and we require the near-term development and validation of models that have sufficient accuracy and lead time to be useful to those impacted by space weather. In this presentation, we will provide new scientific results of space weather conditions that have challenged space weather forecasters, and identify specific areas of research that can lead to improved capabilities. In addition, we will examine examples of customer impacts and requirements as well as the challenges to the operations community to establish metrics that enable the selection and transition of models and observations that can provide the greatest economic and societal benefit.

  20. An emergency response and local weather forecasting software system

    SciTech Connect

    Tremback, C.J.; Lyons, W.A.; Thorson, W.P.; Walko, R.L.

    1994-12-31

    Recent advances in computer technology have now placed supercomputer power on the desktop for a small fraction of the price. Many traditional supercomputer applications have benefited greatly in the move from the realm of the supercomputer center to more direct local control of the end user. Two of the atmospheric applications that have and will continue to benefit greatly from these advances in computer technology is in the arenas of local weather forecasting and emergency response systems.

  1. Space Radiation Protection, Space Weather, and Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zapp, Neal; Fry, Dan; Lee, Kerry

    2010-01-01

    Management of crew exposure to radiation is a major concern for manned spaceflight and will be even more important for the modern concept of longer-duration exploration. The inherent protection afforded to astronauts by the magnetic field of the Earth in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) makes operations on the space shuttle or space station very different from operations during a deep space exploration mission. In order to experience significant radiation-derived Loss of Mission (LOM) or Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for LEO operations, one is almost driven to dictate extreme duration or to dictate an extreme sequence of solar activity. Outside of the geo-magnetosphere, however, this scenario changes dramatically. Exposures to the same event on the ISS and on the surface of the Moon may differ by multiple orders of magnitude. This change in magnitude, coupled with the logistical constraints present in implementing any practical operational mitigation make situational awareness with regard to space weather a limiting factor for our ability to conduct exploration operations. With these differences in risk to crew, vehicle and mission in mind, we present the status of the efforts currently underway as the required development to enable exploration operations. The changes in the operating environment as crewed operations begin to stretch away from the Earth are changing the way we think about the lines between research and operations . The real, practical work to enable a permanent human presence away from Earth has already begun

  2. Fine Forecasts: Encouraging the Media to Include Ultraviolet Radiation Information in Summertime Weather Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richards, R.; Reeder, A. I.; Bulliard, J.-L.

    2004-01-01

    Melanoma and skin cancer are largely attributable to over-exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR). Reports of UVR levels within media weather forecasts appear to be well received by the public and have good potential to communicate the need for appropriate sun protection to a broad audience. This study describes provision of UVR messages by…

  3. Impact of High Resolution SST Data on Regional Weather Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Case, Jonathon; LaFontaine, Frank; Vazquez, Jorge; Mattocks, Craig

    2010-01-01

    Past studies have shown that the use of coarse resolution SST products such as from the real-time global (RTG) SST analysis[1] or other coarse resolution once-a-day products do not properly portray the diurnal variability of fluxes of heat and moisture from the ocean that drive the formation of low level clouds and precipitation over the ocean. For example, the use of high resolution MODIS SST composite [2] to initialize the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) (ARW) [3] has been shown to improve the prediction of sensible weather parameters in coastal regions [4][5}. In an extend study, [6] compared the MODIS SST composite product to the RTG SST analysis and evaluated forecast differences for a 6 month period from March through August 2007 over the Florida coastal regions. In a comparison to buoy data, they found that that the MODIS SST composites reduced the bias and standard deviation over that of the RTG data. These improvements led to significant changes in the initial and forecasted heat fluxes and the resulting surface temperature fields, wind patterns, and cloud distributions. They also showed that the MODIS composite SST product, produced for the Terra and Aqua satellite overpass times, captured a component of the diurnal cycle in SSTs not represented in the RTG or other one-a-day SST analyses. Failure to properly incorporate these effects in the WRF initialization cycle led to temperature biases in the resulting short term forecasts. The forecast impact was limited in some situations however, due to composite product inaccuracies brought about by data latency during periods of long-term cloud cover. This paper focuses on the forecast impact of an enhanced MODIS/AMSR-E composite SST product designed to reduce inaccuracies due data latency in the MODIS only composite product.

  4. New Space Weather Systems Under Development and Their Contribution to Space Weather Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobiska, W.; Bouwer, D.; Schunk, R.; Garrett, H.; Mertens, C.; Bowman, B.

    2008-12-01

    There have been notable successes during the past decade in the development of operational space environment systems. Examples include the Magnetospheric Specification Model (MSM) of the Earth's magnetosphere, 2000; SOLAR2000 (S2K) solar spectral irradiances, 2001; High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) neutral atmosphere densities, 2004; Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) ionosphere specification, 2006; Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) solar wind parameters, 2007; Communication Alert and Prediction System (CAPS) ionosphere, high frequency radio, and scintillation S4 index prediction, 2008; and GEO Alert and Prediction System (GAPS) geosynchronous environment satellite charging specification and forecast, 2008. Operational systems that are in active operational implementation include the Jacchia-Bowman 2006/2008 (JB2006/2008) neutral atmosphere, 2009, and the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) aviation radiation model using the Radiation Alert and Prediction System (RAPS), 2010. U.S. national agency and commercial assets will soon reach a state where specification and prediction will become ubiquitous and where coordinated management of the space environment and space weather will become a necessity. We describe the status of the CAPS, GAPS, RAPS, and JB2008 operational development. We additionally discuss the conditions that are laying the groundwork for space weather management and estimate the unfilled needs as we move beyond specification and prediction efforts.

  5. Space Weather Modeling Services at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael

    2006-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the Rapid Prototyping Centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires close collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide a description of the current CCMC status, discuss current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and describe the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.

  6. Space Weather Modeling at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse M.

    2005-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the rapid prototyping centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires dose collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as distributed computing facilities provided by the US Air Force. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide updates on CCMC status, on current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and on the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.

  7. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  8. Interactive Visual Contextualization of Space Weather Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Törnros, M.; Ynnerman, A.; Emmart, C.; Berrios, D.; Harberts, R.

    2012-12-01

    Linköping University, the American Museum of Natural History (AMNH), and the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center are collaborating on a new open source visualization software for astrovisualization. The CCMC is providing real-time and historical space weather data from the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA), including timely modeled coronal mass ejection events simulated by the Space Weather Research Center at NASA GSFC. Linköping University is developing a new modular visualization tool with multi-channel capabilities to support planetarium exhibits, displaying the real-time space weather data contextualized using fieldlines, volumetric visualization techniques, and planetary information. This collaboration aims to engage the public about space weather and real-time events at the AMNH. We present an overview of this collaboration and demo some of the capabilities.

  9. Space Radiation Protection, Space Weather, and Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zapp, Neal; Rutledge, R.; Semones, E. J.; Johnson, A. S.; Guetersloh, S.; Fry, D.; Stoffle, N.; Lee, K.

    2008-01-01

    Management of crew exposure to radiation is a major concern for manned spaceflight -- and will be even more important for the modern concept of longer-duration exploration. The inherent protection afforded to astronauts by the magnetic field of the Earth in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) makes operations on the space shuttle or space station very different from operations during an exploration mission. In order to experience significant radiation-derived Loss of Mission (LOM) or Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for LEO operations, one is almost driven to dictate extreme duration or to dictate an extreme sequence of solar activity. Outside of the geo-magnetosphere, however, this scenario changes dramatically. Exposures to the same event on the ISS and on the surface of the Moon may differ by multiple orders of magnitude. This change in magnitude, coupled with the logistical constraints present in implementing any practical operational mitigation make situational awareness with regard to space weather a limiting factor for our ability to conduct exploration operations. With these differences in risk to crew, vehicle and mission in mind, we present the status of the efforts currently underway as the required development to enable exploration operations. The changes in the operating environment as crewed operations begin to stretch away from the Earth are changing the way we think about the lines between "research" and "operations". The real, practical work to enable a permanent human presence away from Earth has already begun.

  10. Understanding Space Weather: The Sun as a Variable Star

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strong, Keith; Saba, Julia; Kucera, Therese

    2012-01-01

    The Sun is a complex system of systems and until recently, less than half of its surface was observable at any given time and then only from afar. New observational techniques and modeling capabilities are giving us a fresh perspective of the solar interior and how our Sun works as a variable star. This revolution in solar observations and modeling provides us with the exciting prospect of being able to use a vastly increased stream of solar data taken simultaneously from several different vantage points to produce more reliable and prompt space weather forecasts. Solar variations that cause identifiable space weather effects do not happen only on solar-cycle timescales from decades to centuries; there are also many shorter-term events that have their own unique space weather effects and a different set of challenges to understand and predict, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind variations.

  11. Understanding Space Weather: The Sun as a Variable Star

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strong, Keith; Saba, Julia; Kucera, Therese

    2011-01-01

    The Sun is a complex system of systems and until recently, less than half of its surface was observable at any given time and then only from afar. New observational techniques and modeling capabilities are giving us a fresh perspective of the solar interior and how our Sun works as a variable star. This revolution in solar observations and modeling provides us with the exciting prospect of being able to use a vastly increased stream of solar data taken simultaneously from several different vantage points to produce more reliable and prompt space weather forecasts. Solar variations that cause identifiable space weather effects do not happen only on solar-cycle timescales from decades to centuries; there are also many shorter-term events that have their own unique space weather effects and a different set of challenges to understand and predict, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind variations

  12. Concept for an International Standard related to Space Weather Effects on Space Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobiska, W. Kent; Tomky, Alyssa

    There is great interest in developing an international standard related to space weather in order to specify the tools and parameters needed for space systems operations. In particular, a standard is important for satellite operators who may not be familiar with space weather. In addition, there are others who participate in space systems operations that would also benefit from such a document. For example, the developers of software systems that provide LEO satellite orbit determination, radio communication availability for scintillation events (GEO-to-ground L and UHF bands), GPS uncertainties, and the radiation environment from ground-to-space for commercial space tourism. These groups require recent historical data, current epoch specification, and forecast of space weather events into their automated or manual systems. Other examples are national government agencies that rely on space weather data provided by their organizations such as those represented in the International Space Environment Service (ISES) group of 14 national agencies. Designers, manufacturers, and launchers of space systems require real-time, operational space weather parameters that can be measured, monitored, or built into automated systems. Thus, a broad scope for the document will provide a useful international standard product to a variety of engineering and science domains. The structure of the document should contain a well-defined scope, consensus space weather terms and definitions, and internationally accepted descriptions of the main elements of space weather, its sources, and its effects upon space systems. Appendices will be useful for describing expanded material such as guidelines on how to use the standard, how to obtain specific space weather parameters, and short but detailed descriptions such as when best to use some parameters and not others; appendices provide a path for easily updating the standard since the domain of space weather is rapidly changing with new advances

  13. Forecast skill of a high-resolution real-time mesoscale model designed for weather support of operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, Gregory E.; Zack, John W.; Manobianco, John

    1994-01-01

    NASA funded Mesoscale Environmental Simulations and Operations (MESO), Inc. to develop a version of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS). The model has been modified specifically for short-range forecasting in the vicinity of KSC/CCAS. To accomplish this, the model domain has been limited to increase the number of horizontal grid points (and therefore grid resolution) and the model' s treatment of precipitation, radiation, and surface hydrology physics has been enhanced to predict convection forced by local variations in surface heat, moisture fluxes, and cloud shading. The objective of this paper is to (1) provide an overview of MASS including the real-time initialization and configuration for running the data pre-processor and model, and (2) to summarize the preliminary evaluation of the model's forecasts of temperature, moisture, and wind at selected rawinsonde station locations during February 1994 and July 1994. MASS is a hydrostatic, three-dimensional modeling system which includes schemes to represent planetary boundary layer processes, surface energy and moisture budgets, free atmospheric long and short wave radiation, cloud microphysics, and sub-grid scale moist convection.

  14. Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III; Hood, Doris

    2009-01-01

    Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and forecasters from the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violating the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) (Krider et al. 2006; Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR), NASA/JSC 2004)). As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool that creates an anvil threat corridor graphic that can be overlaid on satellite imagery using the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS, Short and Wheeler, 2002). The tool helps forecasters estimate the locations of thunderstorm anvils at one, two, and three hours into the future. It has been used extensively in launch and landing operations by both the 45 WS and SMG. The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) is now used along with MIDDS for weather analysis and display at SMG. In Phase I of this task, SMG tasked the AMU to transition the tool from MIDDS to AWIPS (Barrett et aI., 2007). For Phase II, SMG requested the AMU make the Anvil Forecast Tool in AWIPS more configurable by creating the capability to read model gridded data from user-defined model files instead of hard-coded files. An NWS local AWIPS application called AGRID was used to accomplish this. In addition, SMG needed to be able to define the pressure levels for the model data, instead of hard-coding the bottom level as 300 mb and the top level as 150 mb. This paper describes the initial development of the Anvil Forecast Tool for MIDDS, followed by the migration of the tool to AWIPS in Phase I. It then gives a detailed presentation of the Phase II improvements to the AWIPS tool.

  15. Recent results from the GISS model of the global atmosphere. [circulation simulation for weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Somerville, R. C. J.

    1975-01-01

    Large numerical atmospheric circulation models are in increasingly widespread use both for operational weather forecasting and for meteorological research. The results presented here are from a model developed at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and described in detail by Somerville et al. (1974). This model is representative of a class of models, recently surveyed by the Global Atmospheric Research Program (1974), designed to simulate the time-dependent, three-dimensional, large-scale dynamics of the earth's atmosphere.

  16. Development of a High Resolution Weather Forecast Model for Mesoamerica Using the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molthan, Andrew L.; Case, Jonathan L.; Venner, Jason; Moreno-Madrinan, Max. J.; Delgado, Francisco

    2012-01-01

    Over the past two years, scientists in the Earth Science Office at NASA fs Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have explored opportunities to apply cloud computing concepts to support near real ]time weather forecast modeling via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Collaborators at NASA fs Short ]term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and the SERVIR project at Marshall Space Flight Center have established a framework that provides high resolution, daily weather forecasts over Mesoamerica through use of the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Platform at Ames Research Center. Supported by experts at Ames, staff at SPoRT and SERVIR have established daily forecasts complete with web graphics and a user interface that allows SERVIR partners access to high resolution depictions of weather in the next 48 hours, useful for monitoring and mitigating meteorological hazards such as thunderstorms, heavy precipitation, and tropical weather that can lead to other disasters such as flooding and landslides. This presentation will describe the framework for establishing and providing WRF forecasts, example applications of output provided via the SERVIR web portal, and early results of forecast model verification against available surface ] and satellite ]based observations.

  17. Calls Forecast for the Moscow Ambulance Service. The Impact of Weather Forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gordin, Vladimir; Bykov, Philipp

    2015-04-01

    We use the known statistics of the calls for the current and previous days to predict them for tomorrow and for the following days. We assume that this algorithm will work operatively, will cyclically update the available information and will move the horizon of the forecast. Sure, the accuracy of such forecasts depends on their lead time, and from a choice of some group of diagnoses. For comparison we used the error of the inertial forecast (tomorrow there will be the same number of calls as today). Our technology has demonstrated accuracy that is approximately two times better compared to the inertial forecast. We obtained the following result: the number of calls depends on the actual weather in the city as well as on its rate of change. We were interested in the accuracy of the forecast for 12-hour sum of the calls in real situations. We evaluate the impact of the meteorological errors [1] on the forecast errors of the number of Ambulance calls. The weather and the Ambulance calls number both have seasonal tendencies. Therefore, if we have medical information from one city only, we should separate the impacts of such predictors as "annual variations in the number of calls" and "weather". We need to consider the seasonal tendencies (associated, e. g. with the seasonal migration of the population) and the impact of the air temperature simultaneously, rather than sequentially. We forecasted separately the number of calls with diagnoses of cardiovascular group, where it was demonstrated the advantage of the forecasting method, when we use the maximum daily air temperature as a predictor. We have a chance to evaluate statistically the influence of meteorological factors on the dynamics of medical problems. In some cases it may be useful for understanding of the physiology of disease and possible treatment options. We can assimilate some personal archives of medical parameters for the individuals with concrete diseases and the relative meteorological archive. As a

  18. Solar thematic maps for space weather operations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rigler, E. Joshua; Hill, Steven M.; Reinard, Alysha A.; Steenburgh, Robert A.

    2012-01-01

    Thematic maps are arrays of labels, or "themes", associated with discrete locations in space and time. Borrowing heavily from the terrestrial remote sensing discipline, a numerical technique based on Bayes' theorem captures operational expertise in the form of trained theme statistics, then uses this to automatically assign labels to solar image pixels. Ultimately, regular thematic maps of the solar corona will be generated from high-cadence, high-resolution SUVI images, the solar ultraviolet imager slated to fly on NOAA's next-generation GOES-R series of satellites starting ~2016. These thematic maps will not only provide quicker, more consistent synoptic views of the sun for space weather forecasters, but digital thematic pixel masks (e.g., coronal hole, active region, flare, etc.), necessary for a new generation of operational solar data products, will be generated. This paper presents the mathematical underpinnings of our thematic mapper, as well as some practical algorithmic considerations. Then, using images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Advanced Imaging Array (AIA) as test data, it presents results from validation experiments designed to ascertain the robustness of the technique with respect to differing expert opinions and changing solar conditions.

  19. Improving High-resolution Weather Forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with Upgraded Kain-Fritsch Cumulus Scheme

    EPA Science Inventory

    High-resolution weather forecasting is affected by many aspects, i.e. model initial conditions, subgrid-scale cumulus convection and cloud microphysics schemes. Recent 12km grid studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model have identified the importance of inco...

  20. The International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davila, Joseph M.

    2010-01-01

    The International Heliophysical Year (IHY) provided a successful model for the deployment of arrays of small scientific instruments in new and scientifically interesting geographic locations, and outreach. The new International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is designed to build on this momentum to promote the observation, understanding, and prediction space weather phenomena, and to communicate the scientific results to the public.

  1. Toward Application of Lightning Observations to Weather Forecasts and Warnings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macgorman, D. R.

    2002-12-01

    Once lightning mapping systems became fast enough to locate lightning in real or near-real time, it became possible to consider applications of lightning data to weather operations. The first system to be used routinely in such a way was the LLP direction-finder network deployed around 1980 by the Bureau of Land Management to help detect range and forest fires started by cloud-to-ground lightning. In 1987, a federal interagency group collaborated with the State University of New York at Albany to put together a trial National Lightning Detection Network for a three-year evaluation of possible applications to weather operations. During this trial, the National Weather Service determined that the lightning ground-strike data are useful for detecting the presence, configuration, and evolution of storms and storm systems, and so subsequently procured lightning strike mapping data for federal use that has continued to the present. Research since then has suggested that detection of positive cloud-to-ground lightning may also be useful, when combined with radar data, to help identify some severe storms, though the conditions under which this is possible are still being investigated. Furthermore, cloud-to-ground flash data can be assimilated into forecast models to improve the initial conditions, and hence the forecasts, of the models. More recently technology has advanced to the point that mapping all types of lightning is feasible. Because typically more than 70% of the lightning flashes produced by a storm do not strike ground, such technologies, at a minimum, would increase sampling rates to identify thunderstorms more quickly and reliably. However, different types of lightning also provide different information about storms. Cloud-to-ground lightning tends to indicate the formation and descent of precipitation, while cloud flash rates appear to be associated more closely with updraft and graupel evolution. Research is underway to determine and quantify these

  2. Engaging Earth- and Environmental-Science Undergraduates through Weather Discussions and an eLearning Weather Forecasting Contest

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schultz, David M.; Anderson, Stuart; Seo-Zindy, Ryo

    2013-01-01

    For students who major in meteorology, engaging in weather forecasting can motivate learning, develop critical-thinking skills, improve their written communication, and yield better forecasts. Whether such advances apply to students who are not meteorology majors has been less demonstrated. To test this idea, a weather discussion and an eLearning…

  3. Using Weekly Weather Forecast for Real-Time Irrigation Scheduling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, X.; Wang, D.; Hejazi, M.

    2008-12-01

    Irrigation scheduling determines the timing and amount of water applied to an irrigated cropland during the crop growing season. Through a case study with Havana Lowlands region, Illinois, this study addresses two questions: 1) how can we consider the uncertainty of the weekly forecast for real-time irrigation scheduling? 2) What is the economic value of the forecast for irrigation farmers? We propose a coupled simulation and optimization modeling approach. The simulation part adopts an existing soil-water-atmosphere-plant (SWAP) simulation model. The SWAP model simulates soil moisture, the key state variable for irrigation decision, at the current time (day) using observed weather data; meanwhile the model assimilates the daily updated weekly forecast to predict the soil moisture in the future week. The weekly time window moves forward from the beginning to the end of the crop season. The optimization model is formulated as a multiple-stage stochastic optimization model that is based on weather forecast scenarios characterized by probabilities. The multiple-stage decisions are the deterministic water application at the current day ("what to do now") and the application scenarios associated with probabilities in each of the 7 days within one week time horizon ("wait- and-see"). Based on the soil moisture provided by the simulation model and empirical irrigation rules, irrigation water application is determined by the optimization model implemented with a genetic algorithm (GA). The modeling approach is tested with five years (2002-2006), which include two dry years, two normal years and one wet year, with the rainfall in the crop growth season ranging from 230mm to 410mm. The value of forecast is shown to be different across dry, normal, and wet years. In the year of 2002, observed irrigation scheduling is available. Thus the optimized irrigation scheduling is compared to the observed regarding the net crop profit and irrigation water saving.

  4. Space weather in the EU's FP7 Space Theme. Preface to the special issue on "EU-FP7 funded space weather projects"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiarini, Paola

    2013-11-01

    Technological infrastructures in space and on ground provide services on which modern society and economies rely. Space weather related research is funded under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (FP7) of the European Union in response to the need of protecting such critical infrastructures from the damage which could be caused by extreme space weather events. The calls for proposals published under the topic "Security of space assets from space weather events" of the FP7 Space Theme aimed to improve forecasts and predictions of disruptive space weather events as well as identify best practices to limit the impacts on space- and ground-based infrastructures and their data provision. Space weather related work was also funded under the topic "Exploitation of space science and exploration data", which aims to add value to space missions and Earth-based observations by contributing to the effective scientific exploitation of collected data. Since 2007 a total of 20 collaborative projects have been funded, covering a variety of physical phenomena associated with space weather, from ionospheric disturbances and scintillation, to geomagnetically induced currents at Earth's surface, to coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particles. This article provides an overview of the funded projects, touching upon some results and referring to specific websites for a more exhaustive description of the projects' outcomes.

  5. Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Leela R.; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian

    2010-01-01

    Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) at Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. The original LDIS was developed by NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU; Bauman et ai, 2004) in 1998 (Manobianco and Case 1998) and has undergone subsequent improvements. Each has benefited from three-dimensional (3-D) analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features

  6. Assessments of Total Lightning Data Utility in Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buechler, Dennis E.; Goodman, Steve; LaCasse, Katherine; Blakeslee, Richard; Darden, Chris

    2005-01-01

    National Weather Service forecasters in Huntsville, Alabama have had access to total lightning data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) since 2003. Forecasters can monitor real-time total lightning observations on their AWIPS (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) workstations. The lightning data is used to supplement other observations such as radar and satellite data. The lightning data is updated every 2 min, providing more timely evidence of storm growth or decay than is available from 5 min radar scans. Total lightning observations have been used to positively impact warning decisions in a number of instances. A number of approaches are being pursued to assess the usefulness of total lightning measurements to the operational forecasting community in the warning decision process. These approaches, which include both qualitative and quantitative assessment methods, will be discussed. submitted to the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data to be held in San Diego, CA January 9-13,2005. This will be a presentation and an extended abstract will be published on a CD available from the AMS.

  7. Using High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Models to Reduce and Estimate Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cole, S. J.; Moore, R. J.; Roberts, N.

    2007-12-01

    Forecast rainfall from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and/or nowcasting systems is a major source of uncertainty for short-term flood forecasting. One approach for reducing and estimating this uncertainty is to use high resolution NWP models that should provide better rainfall predictions. The potential benefit of running the Met Office Unified Model (UM) with a grid spacing of 4 and 1 km compared to the current operational resolution of 12 km is assessed using the January 2005 Carlisle flood in northwest England. These NWP rainfall forecasts, and forecasts from the Nimrod nowcasting system, were fed into the lumped Probability Distributed Model (PDM) and the distributed Grid-to-Grid model to predict river flow at the outlets of two catchments important for flood warning. The results show the benefit of increased resolution in the UM, the benefit of coupling the high- resolution rainfall forecasts to hydrological models and the improvement in timeliness of flood warning that might have been possible. Ongoing work aims to employ these NWP rainfall forecasts in ensemble form as part of a procedure for estimating the uncertainty of flood forecasts.

  8. Competitive Learning Experiences: The Role of Weather Forecasting Contests in Geography Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harrington, John A., Jr.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Employs weather forecasting contests as a strategy for teaching about the weather, climate, and atmosphere. States that competency in understanding concepts and the ability to develop logical constructs about atmospheric processes are enhanced. Includes suggestions for teaching weather forecasting at all grade levels, and describes a contest at…

  9. Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Leela R.; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian

    2010-01-01

    /Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS), as well as the Kennedy Space Center ICape Canaveral Air Force Station wind tower network. The scripts provide NWS MLB and SMG with several options for setting a desirable runtime configuration of the LDIS to account for adjustments in grid spacing, domain location, choice of observational data sources, and selection of background model fields, among others. The utility of an improved LDIS will be demonstrated through postanalysis warm and cool season case studies that compare high-resolution model output with and without the ADAS analyses. Operationally, these upgrades will result in more accurate depictions of the current local environment to help with short-range weather forecasting applications, while also offering an improved initialization for local versions of the Weather Research and Forecasting model.

  10. Linking Space Weather Science and Decision Making (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisher, G. M.

    2009-12-01

    Linking scientific knowledge to decision making is a challenge for both the science and policy communities. In particular, in the field of space weather, there are unique challenges such as decision makers may not know that space has weather that poses risks to our technologically-dependent economy. Additionally, in an era of limited funds for scientific research, hazards posed by other natural disasters such as flooding and earthquakes are by contrast well known to policy makers, further making the importance of space weather research and monitoring a tough sell. Today, with industries and individuals more dependent on the Global Positioning System, wireless technology, and satellites than ever before, any disruption or inaccuracy can result in severe economic impacts. Therefore, it is highly important to understand how space weather science can most benefit society. The key to connecting research to decision making is to ensure that the information is salient, credible, and legitimate. To achieve this, scientists need to understand the decision makers' perspectives, including their language and culture, and recognize that their needs may evolve. This presentation will take a closer look at the steps required to make space weather research, models, and forecasts useful to decision makers and ultimately, benefit society.

  11. Space Weather and GOCE Measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ince, E. S.; Pagiatakis, S. D.

    2015-12-01

    The latest gravity field mission GOCE (Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer) has mapped the Earth's static gravity field with an unrivalled precision. The satellite completed its mission in November 2013 and the most recent gravity field models (e.g., GOCE 5th generation gravity field models) have already been released. However, there are still unanswered questions in the data processing which leak into GOCE Level 1b and 2 products. It is found that there are signals of non-gravitational origin present in the cross-track gravity gradients that are about three to five times larger than the expected noise level of the gravity field components derived from GOCE gradiometer. These disturbances are observed around the magnetic poles during particular time periods that correspond to geomagnetically active days. In this study, we investigate the unexpected disturbances present in GOCE gradiometer gravity tensor's diagonal components along the satellite track and analyze possible causes. External datasets, interplanetary magnetic, and electric field observations from the solar wind monitoring spacecraft ACE- (Advanced Composition Explorer) and WIND, geomagnetic activity observed at CARISMA (Canadian Array for Real-time Investigations of Magnetic Activity) stations and Ionospheric Equivalent Currents (EICS) and Elementary Current Amplitudes (SECS) derived from terrestrial geomagnetic field disturbances observed over North America and Greenland are used to understand the effect of the space weather variations and ionospheric dynamics on the GOCE Gradiometer measurements. We have shown that the variation in the amplitude of the equivalent currents and changes in the current directions show high correlation with the disturbances observed in GOCE measurements along the satellite track which hints the interaction between the two.

  12. Resource Letter SW1: Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Daniel N.; Lanzerotti, Louis J.

    2016-03-01

    This Resource Letter describes the phenomena and effects on technological systems that are known collectively as space weather. A brief history of the topic is provided, and the scientific understandings of drivers for such phenomena are discussed. The impacts of space disturbances are summarized, and the strategies for dealing with space weather threats are examined. The Resource Letter concludes with description of approaches that have been proposed to deal with threats to our increasingly technological society.

  13. Space Weather Models, Tools and Services at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Maddox, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Berrios, D.; Pulkkinen, A.; Zheng, Y.; MacNeice, P. J.; Shim, J.; Takakishvili, A.; Chulaki, A.

    2010-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. Space weather models and coupled model chains hosted at the CCMC range from the solar corona to the Earth's upper atmosphere. CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as a large number of modeling and data products tailored to address the space weather needs of NASA's robotic missions. The presentation will demonstrate the rapid progress towards development the system allowing using products derived from space weather models in applications associated with National Space Weather needs. The adaptable Integrated Space Weather Analysis (ISWA) System developed at CCMC for NASA-relevant space weather information combines forecasts based on advanced space weather models hosted at CCMC with concurrent space environment information. The system is also enabling post-impact analysis and flexible dissemination of space weather information.

  14. Operational Space Weather in USAF Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smithtro, C.; Quigley, S.

    2006-12-01

    Most education programs offering space weather courses are understandably and traditionally heavily weighted with theoretical space physics that is the basis for most of what is researched and modeled. While understanding the theory is a good and necessary grounding for anyone working the field of space weather, few military or commercial jobs employ such theory in real-time operations. The operations sites/centers are much more geared toward use of applied theory-resultant models, tools and products. To ensure its operations centers personnel, commanders, real-time system operators and other customers affected by the space environment are educated on available and soon-to-be operational space weather models and products, the USAF has developed applicable course/lecture material taught at various institutions to include the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) and the Joint Weather Training Complex (335th/TRS/OUA). Less frequent training of operational space weather is available via other venues that will be discussed, and associated course material is also being developed for potential use at the National Security Space Institute (NSSI). This presentation provides an overview of the programs, locations, courses and material developed and/or taught by or for USAF personnel dealing with operational space weather. It also provides general information on student research project results that may be used in operational support, along with observations regarding logistical and professional benefits of teaching such non-theoretical/non-traditional material.

  15. Operational Numerical Weather Prediction at the Met Office and potential ways forward for operational space weather prediction systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jackson, David

    NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar

  16. Space Weathering in the Thermal Infrared: Lessons from LRO Diviner

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greenhagen, B. T.; Lucey, P. G.; Glotch, T. D.; Arnold, J. A.; Bandfield, J. L.; Bowles, N. E.; Donaldson Hanna, K. L.; Hayne, P. O.; Lemelin, M.; Shirley, K. A.; Song, E.; Paige, D. A.

    2016-05-01

    Before LRO, it was suggested that TIR spectroscopy would be less susceptible to the effects of space weathering. Diviner has shown the TIR is affected by space weathering. We will discuss this unanticipated space weathering dependence.

  17. Engaging Earth- and Environmental-Science Undergraduates Through Weather Discussions and an eLearning Weather Forecasting Contest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, David M.; Anderson, Stuart; Seo-Zindy, Ryo

    2013-06-01

    For students who major in meteorology, engaging in weather forecasting can motivate learning, develop critical-thinking skills, improve their written communication, and yield better forecasts. Whether such advances apply to students who are not meteorology majors has been less demonstrated. To test this idea, a weather discussion and an eLearning weather forecasting contest were devised for a meteorology course taken by third-year undergraduate earth- and environmental-science students. The discussion consisted of using the recent, present, and future weather to amplify the topics of the week's lectures. Then, students forecasted the next day's high temperature and the probability of precipitation for Woodford, the closest official observing site to Manchester, UK. The contest ran for 10 weeks, and the students received credit for participation. The top students at the end of the contest received bonus points on their final grade. A Web-based forecast contest application was developed to register the students, receive their forecasts, and calculate weekly standings. Students who were successful in the forecast contest were not necessarily those who achieved the highest scores on the tests, demonstrating that the contest was possibly testing different skills than traditional learning. Student evaluations indicate that the weather discussion and contest were reasonably successful in engaging students to learn about the weather outside of the classroom, synthesize their knowledge from the lectures, and improve their practical understanding of the weather. Therefore, students taking a meteorology class, but not majoring in meteorology, can derive academic benefits from weather discussions and forecast contests. Nevertheless, student evaluations also indicate that better integration of the lectures, weather discussions, and the forecasting contests is necessary.

  18. Sources, Propagators, and Sinks of Space Weather

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pesnell, William D.

    2006-01-01

    Space Weather is a complex web of sources, propagators, and sinks of energy, mass, and momentum. A complete understanding of Space Weather requires specifying, and an ability to predict, each link in this web. One important problem in Space Weather is ranking the importance of a particular measurement or model in a research program. One way to do this ranking is to examine the simplest linked diagram of the sources, propagators, and sinks and produce. By analyzing only those components that contribute to a particular area the individual contributions can be better appreciated. Several such diagrams will be shown and used to discuss how long-term effects of Space Weather can be separated from the impulsive effects.

  19. Space Weather Research in Greece: The Solar Energetic Particle Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malandraki, Olga E.

    2015-03-01

    Space Weather Research carried out in the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), within the SEPServer and COMESEP projects under the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-SPACE) of the European Union (EU) is presented. Results and services that these projects provide to the whole scientific community as well as stakeholders are underlined. NOA strongly contributes in terms of crucial Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) dataset provided, data analysis and SEP catalogue items provided as well as comparative results of the various components of the project server, greatly facilitating the investigation of SEPs and their origin. SEP research highlights carried out at NOA are also presented, used to test and validate the particle SEP model developed and incorporated within the SEP forecasting tools of the COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP) Space Weather Alert System, i.e. the First European Alert System for geomagnetic storms and SEP radiation hazards.

  20. Advancing Space Weather Modeling Capabilities at the CCMC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mays, M. Leila; Kuznetsova, Maria; Boblitt, Justin; Chulaki, Anna; MacNeice, Peter; Mendoza, Michelle; Mullinix, Richard; Pembroke, Asher; Pulkkinen, Antti; Rastaetter, Lutz; Shim, Ja Soon; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Wiegand, Chiu; Zheng, Yihua

    2016-04-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) serves as a community access point to an expanding collection of state-of-the-art space environment models and as a hub for collaborative development on next generation of space weather forecasting systems. In partnership with model developers and the international research and operational communities, the CCMC integrates new data streams and models from diverse sources into end-to-end space weather predictive systems, identifies weak links in data-model & model-model coupling and leads community efforts to fill those gaps. The presentation will focus on the latest model installations at the CCMC and advances in CCMC-led community-wide model validation projects.

  1. Space Weather Gets Real—on Smartphones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobiska, W. Kent; Crowley, Geoff; Oh, Seung Jun; Guhathakurta, Madhulika

    2010-10-01

    True to the saying that "a picture is worth a thousand words," society's affinity for visual images has driven innovative efforts to see space weather as it happens. The newest frontiers of these efforts involve applications, or apps, on cellular phones, allowing space weather researchers, operators, and teachers, as well as other interested parties, to have the ability to monitor conditions in real time with just the touch of a button.

  2. ISES Experience in Delivering Space Weather Services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boteler, David

    The International Space Environment Service has over eighty years experience in providing space weather services to meet a wide variety of user needs. This started with broadcast on December 1, 2008 from the Eiffel Tower about radio conditions. The delivery of information about ionospheric effects on high frequency (HF) radio propagation continue to be a major concern in many parts of the world. The movement into space brought requirements for a new set of space weather services, ranging from radiation dangers to man in space, damage to satellites and effects on satellite communication and navigation systems. On the ground magnetic survey, power system and pipeline operators require information about magnetic disturbances that can affect their operations. In the past these services have been delivered by individual Regional Warning Centres. However, the needs of new trans-national users are stimulating the development of new collaborative international space weather services.

  3. Space Weather: What is it, and Why Should a Meteorologist Care?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    SaintCyr, Chris; Murtagh, Bill

    2008-01-01

    "Space weather" is a term coined almost 15 years ago to describe environmental conditions ABOVE Earth's atmosphere that affect satellites and astronauts. As society has become more dependent on technology, we nave found that space weather conditions increasingly affect numerous commercial and infrastructure sectors: airline operations, the precision positioning industry, and the electric power grid, to name a few. Similar to meteorology where "weather" often refers to severe conditions, "space weather" includes geomagnetic storms, radiation storms, and radio blackouts. But almost all space weather conditions begin at the Sun--our middle-age, magnetically-variable star. At NASA, the science behind space weather takes place in the Heliophysics Division. The Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, is manned jointly by NCAA and US Air Force personnel, and it provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth. Organizationally, it resides in NOAA's National Weather Service as one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. In this seminar we hope to give the audience a brief introduction to the causes of space weather, discuss some of the effects, and describe the state of the art in forecasting. Our goal is to highlight that meteorologists are increasingly becoming the "first responders" to questions about space weather causes and effects.

  4. Discover Space Weather and Sun's Superpowers: Using CCMC's innovative tools and applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendoza, A. M. M.; Maddox, M. M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Chulaki, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Mullinix, R.; Weigand, C.; Boblitt, J.; Taktakishvili, A.; MacNeice, P. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Pembroke, A. D.; Mays, M. L.; Zheng, Y.; Shim, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has developed a comprehensive set of tools and applications that are directly applicable to space weather and space science education. These tools, some of which were developed by our student interns, are capable of serving a wide range of student audiences, from middle school to postgraduate research. They include a web-based point of access to sophisticated space physics models and visualizations, and a powerful space weather information dissemination system, available on the web and as a mobile app. In this demonstration, we will use CCMC's innovative tools to engage the audience in real-time space weather analysis and forecasting and will share some of our interns' hands-on experiences while being trained as junior space weather forecasters. The main portals to CCMC's educational material are ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov and iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov

  5. Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dreher, Joseph; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian; Van Speybroeck, Kurt

    2009-01-01

    The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) is responsible for providing meteorological support to state and county emergency management agencies across East Central Florida in the event of incidents involving the significant release of harmful chemicals, radiation, and smoke from fires and/or toxic plumes into the atmosphere. NWS MLB uses the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to provide trajectory, concentration, and deposition guidance during such events. Accurate and timely guidance is critical for decision makers charged with protecting the health and well-being of populations at risk. Information that can describe the geographic extent of areas possibly affected by a hazardous release, as well as to indicate locations of primary concern, offer better opportunity for prompt and decisive action. In addition, forecasters at the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have expressed interest in using the HYSPLIT model to assist with Weather Flight Rules during Space Shuttle landing operations. In particular, SMG would provide low and mid-level HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts for cumulus clouds associated with smoke plumes, and high-level trajectory forecasts for thunderstorm anvils. Another potential benefit for both NWS MLB and SMG is using the HYSPLIT model concentration and deposition guidance in fog situations.

  6. Realistic weather simulations and forecast verification with COSMO-EULAG

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wójcik, Damian; Piotrowski, Zbigniew; Rosa, Bogdan; Ziemiański, Michał

    2015-04-01

    Research conducted at Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute, in collaboration with Consortium for Small Scale Modeling (COSMO) resulted in the development of a new prototype model COSMO-EULAG. The dynamical core of the new model is based on anelastic set of equation and numerics adopted from the EULAG model. The core is coupled, with the 1st degree of accuracy, to the COSMO physical parameterizations involving turbulence, friction, radiation, moist processes and surface fluxes. The tool is capable to compute weather forecast in mountainous area for the horizontal resolutions ranging from 2.2 km to 0.1 km and with slopes reaching 82 degree of inclination. An employment of EULAG allows to profit from its desirable conservative properties and numerical robustness confirmed in number of benchmark tests and widely documented in scientific literature. In this study we show a realistic case study of Alpine summer convection simulated by COSMO-EULAG. It compares the convection-permitting realization of the flow using 2.2 km horizontal grid size, typical for contemporary very high resolution regional NWP forecast, with realization of LES type using grid size of 100 m. The study presents comparison of flow, cloud and precipitation structure together with the reference results of standard compressible COSMO Runge-Kutta model forecast in 2.2 km horizontal resolution. The case study results are supplemented by COSMO-EULAG forecast verification results for Alpine domain in 2.2 km horizontal resolution. Wind, temperature, cloud, humidity and precipitation scores are being presented. Verification period covers one summer month (June 2013) and one autumn month (November 2013). Verification is based on data collected by a network of approximately 200 stations (surface data verification) and 6 stations (upper-air verification) located in the Alps and vicinity.

  7. Space Weathering in the Mercurian Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noble, S. K.; Pieters, C. M.

    2001-01-01

    Space weathering processes are known to be important on the Moon. These processes both create the lunar regolith and alter its optical properties. Like the Moon, Mercury has no atmosphere to protect it from the harsh space environment and therefore it is expected that it will also incur the effects of space weathering. However, there are many important differences between the environments of Mercury and the Moon. These environmental differences will almost certainly affect the weathering processes and the products of those processes. It should be possible to observe the effects of these differences in Vis (visible)/NIR (near infrared) spectra of the type expected to be returned by MESSENGER. More importantly, understanding these weathering processes and their consequences is essential for evaluating the spectral data returned from MESSENGER and other missions in order to determine the mineralogy and the Fe content of the Mercurian surface. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  8. Space Weathering in the Inner Solar System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noble, Sarah K.

    2010-01-01

    "Space weathering" is the term given to the cumulative effects incurred by surfaces which are exposed to the harsh environment of space. Lunar sample studies over the last decade or so have produced a clear picture of space weathering processes in the lunar environment. By combining laboratory and remote spectra with microanalytical methods (scanning and transmission electron microscopy), we have begun to unravel the various processes (irradiation, micrometeorite bombardment, etc) that contribute to space weathering and the physical and optical consequences of those processes on the Moon. Using the understanding gleaned from lunar samples, it is possible to extrapolate weathering processes to other airless bodies from which we have not yet returned samples (i.e. Mercury, asteroids). Through experiments which simulate various components of weathering, the expected differences in environment (impact rate, distance from Sun, presence of a magnetic field, reduced or enhanced gravity, etc) and composition (particularly iron content) can be explored to understand how space weathering will manifest on a given body.

  9. Simulating Space Weather at Pluto

    NASA Video Gallery

    This video shows a simulation of the space environment all the way out to Pluto in the months surrounding New Horizons’ July 2015 flyby. At the time, scientists at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Cente...

  10. Multivariate Climate-Weather Forecasting System: An Integrated Approach for Mitigating Agricultural Risks in Punjab

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

    2015-12-01

    While India has a long history of prediction of the All India Monsoon, work on spatially specific attributes of the monsoon, as well as monsoon break periods has only recently emerged. However, from a risk management context, prognostic information of a single variable such as total precipitation or average temperature will be of less utility especially for specific operational purposes. An integrated regional climate-weather forecast system covering precipitation, temperature and humidity etc. over the year will benefit the farmers in the context of a specific decision time table for irrigation scheduling as well as for pre-season crop choices. Hence, contrary to the existing forecasting methods that develop multi time scale information of a single variable at a time, in this paper, we introduce an integrated regional multivariate climate-weather forecasting system that directly relates to agricultural decision making and risk mitigation. These multi-scale risk attributes include mutually dependent, spatially disaggregated statistics such as total rainfall, average temperature, growing degree days, relative humidity, total number of rainfall days/dry spell length, and cumulative water deficits that inform the potential irrigation water requirements for crops. Given that these attributes exhibit mutual dependence across space and time, we propose to explore common ocean-atmospheric conditions from the observations and the state of the art Global Circulation Models (GCMs) that can be utilized as the predictor variables for the forecasting system. Hierarchical Bayesian methods are be used to develop the integrated forecast system. The developed multivariate forecasts will be adapted and disseminated as decision tools for the farmers under the extension projects in Punjab region of India.

  11. Weather Stations as Educational and Hazard-Forecasting Tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowman, L. J.; Gierke, J. S.; Gochis, E. E.; Dominguez, R.; Mayer, A. S.

    2014-12-01

    Small, relatively inexpensive (<$1000 USD) weather stations can be valuable tools for enhancing inquiry-based educational opportunities at all grade levels, while also facilitating compilation of climate data for longer term research. Weather stations and networks of stations have been installed both locally and abroad in mostly rural and resource-limited settings. The data are being used either in the classroom to engage students in place-based, scientific investigations and/or research to improve hydrometeorological hazard forecasting, including water scarcity. The San Vicente (El Salvador) Network of six stations monitors rainfall to aid warning and evacuations for landslide and flooding hazards. Other parameters are used in modeling the watershed hydrology. A station installed in Hermosillo, Mexico is used in both Geography and Ecology Classes. Trends in temperature and rainfall are graphed and compared to historic data gathered over the last 30 years by CONAGUA. These observations are linked to local water-related problems, including well salinization, diminished agriculture, depleted aquifers, and social conflict regarding access to water. Two weather stations were installed at the Hannahville Indian Community School (Nah Tah Wahsh) in Michigan for educational purposes of data collection, analysis, and presentation. Through inquiry-based explorations of local hydrological processes, students are introduced to how meteorological data are used in understanding watershed hydrology and the sustainable management of groundwater resources. Several Michigan Technological University Peace Corps Masters International students have deployed weather stations in and around the communities where they serve, and the data are used in research to help in understanding water resource availability and irrigation needs.

  12. ESA situational awareness of space weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luntama, Juha-Pekka; Glover, Alexi; Keil, Ralf; Kraft, Stefan; Lupi, Adriano

    2016-07-01

    ESA SSA Period 2 started at the beginning of 2013 and will last until the end of 2016. For the Space Weather Segment, transition to Period 2 introduced an increasing amount of development of new space weather service capability in addition to networking existing European assets. This transition was started already towards the end of SSA Period 1 with the initiation of the SSA Space Weather Segment architecture definition studies and activities enhancing existing space weather assets. The objective of Period 2 has been to initiate SWE space segment developments in the form of hosted payload missions and further expand the federated service network. A strong focus has been placed on demonstration and testing of European capabilities in the range of SWE service domains with a view to establishing core products which can form the basis of SWE service provision during SSA Period 3. This focus has been particularly addressed in the SSA Expert Service Centre (ESC) Definition and Development activity that was started in September 2015. This presentation will cover the current status of the SSA SWE Segment and the achievements during SSA Programme Periods 1 and 2. Particular attention is given to the federated approach that allow building the end user services on the best European expertise. The presentation will also outline the plans for the Space Weather capability development in the framework of the ESA SSA Programme in 2017-2020.

  13. Types of Forecast and Weather-Related Information Used among Tourism Businesses in Coastal North Carolina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayscue, Emily P.

    This study profiles the coastal tourism sector, a large and diverse consumer of climate and weather information. It is crucial to provide reliable, accurate and relevant resources for the climate and weather-sensitive portions of this stakeholder group in order to guide them in capitalizing on current climate and weather conditions and to prepare them for potential changes. An online survey of tourism business owners, managers and support specialists was conducted within the eight North Carolina oceanfront counties asking respondents about forecasts they use and for what purposes as well as why certain forecasts are not used. Respondents were also asked about their perceived dependency of their business on climate and weather as well as how valuable different forecasts are to their decision-making. Business types represented include: Agriculture, Outdoor Recreation, Accommodations, Food Services, Parks and Heritage, and Other. Weekly forecasts were the most popular forecasts with Monthly and Seasonal being the least used. MANOVA and ANOVA analyses revealed outdoor-oriented businesses (Agriculture and Outdoor Recreation) as perceiving themselves significantly more dependent on climate and weather than indoor-oriented ones (Food Services and Accommodations). Outdoor businesses also valued short-range forecasts significantly more than indoor businesses. This suggests a positive relationship between perceived climate and weather dependency and forecast value. The low perceived dependency and value of short-range forecasts of indoor businesses presents an opportunity to create climate and weather information resources directed at how they can capitalize on positive climate and weather forecasts and how to counter negative effects with forecasted adverse conditions. The low use of long-range forecasts among all business types can be related to the low value placed on these forecasts. However, these forecasts are still important in that they are used to make more

  14. Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst-Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joslyn, Susan; Savelli, Sonia; Nadav-Greenberg, Limor

    2011-01-01

    Many weather forecast providers believe that forecast uncertainty in the form of the worst-case scenario would be useful for general public end users. We tested this suggestion in 4 studies using realistic weather-related decision tasks involving high winds and low temperatures. College undergraduates, given the statistical equivalent of the…

  15. Community Modeling Program for Space Weather: A CCMC Perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael

    2009-01-01

    A community modeling program, which provides a forum for exchange and integration between modelers, has excellent potential for furthering our Space Weather modeling and forecasting capabilities. The design of such a program is of great importance to its success. In this presentation, we will argue that the most effective community modeling program should be focused on Space Weather-related objectives, and that it should be open and inclusive. The tremendous successes of prior community research activities further suggest that the most effective implementation of a new community modeling program should be based on community leadership, rather than on domination by individual institutions or centers. This presentation will provide an experience-based justification for these conclusions.

  16. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  17. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    SciTech Connect

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improves WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.

  18. Recent Applications of Space Weather Research to NASA Space Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Willis, Emily M.; Howard, James W., Jr.; Miller, J. Scott; Minow, Joseph I.; NeergardParker, L.; Suggs, Robert M.

    2013-01-01

    Marshall Space Flight Center s Space Environments Team is committed to applying the latest research in space weather to NASA programs. We analyze data from an extensive set of space weather satellites in order to define the space environments for some of NASA s highest profile programs. Our goal is to ensure that spacecraft are designed to be successful in all environments encountered during their missions. We also collaborate with universities, industry, and other federal agencies to provide analysis of anomalies and operational impacts to current missions. This presentation is a summary of some of our most recent applications of space weather data, including the definition of the space environments for the initial phases of the Space Launch System (SLS), acquisition of International Space Station (ISS) frame potential variations during geomagnetic storms, and Nascap-2K charging analyses.

  19. Neural network based short-term load forecasting using weather compensation

    SciTech Connect

    Chow, T.W.S.; Leung, C.T.

    1996-11-01

    This paper presents a novel technique for electric load forecasting based on neural weather compensation. The proposed method is a nonlinear generalization of Box and Jenkins approach for nonstationary time-series prediction. A weather compensation neural network is implemented for one-day ahead electric load forecasting. The weather compensation neural network can accurately predict the change of actual electric load consumption from the previous day. The results, based on Hong Kong Island historical load demand, indicate that this methodology is capable of providing a more accurate load forecast with a 0.9% reduction in forecast error.

  20. Space Weather: Physics and Effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hughes, W. Jeffrey

    2009-03-01

    With the launching of Sputnik, Explorer 1, and the other early satellites, the new discipline of space physics was born, about 50 years ago. Although earlier ground-based observations had provided strong hints about the nature of our space environment above the upper atmosphere, those early satellites initiated a series of surprises and discoveries, including Van Allen's discovery of the Earth's radiation belts. Young scientists were attracted to this new field, and it grew quickly. When the Journal of Geophysical Research was divided into two sections, in 1964, one section was devoted to space physics. The field explored not only new regions of space but also a new state of matter: the rarefied, fully ionized plasma that fills space and interacts intimately with magnetic fields.

  1. Use of MODIS/AIRS Direct Broadcast Data for Short Term Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary

    2003-01-01

    Operational weather forecasting relies heavily on real time data and modeling products for forecast preparation and dissemination of significant weather information to the public. The key to this success is access to real time data and integration of the data and products into weather decision support systems. NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Program has demonstrated this capability with MODIS and AIRS data through several local NWS Forecast Offices. This presentation will describe the use of real time EOS Direct Broadcast (DB) data in local weather forecast operations, highlight the utility of real time data from the EOS DB systems, and provide insight into how EOS DB data can have the most impact on the weather forecast community.

  2. On-line economic optimization of energy systems using weather forecast information.

    SciTech Connect

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-01-01

    We establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit weather forecast information in the operation of energy systems. We argue that anticipating the weather conditions can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The framework is based on the solution of a stochastic dynamic real-time optimization (D-RTO) problem incorporating forecasts generated from a state-of-the-art weather prediction model. The necessary uncertainty information is extracted from the weather model using an ensemble approach. The accuracy of the forecast trends and uncertainty bounds are validated using real meteorological data. We present a numerical simulation study in a building system to demonstrate the developments.

  3. Application of SeaWinds Scatterometer Data to Weather Analysis and Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atlas, Robert

    2003-01-01

    The SeaWinds scatterometer (like NSCAT and ERS) is able to detect unequivocal signatures of meteorological features including cyclones, fronts, anticyclones, easterly waves and other precursors of hurricanes and typhoons. Through collaborative efforts between NASA and NOAA, National Weather Service marine forecasters are using SeaWinds data to improve analyses, forecasts and significant weather warnings for maritime interests. This results in substantial economic savings as well as the reduction of weather related loss of life at sea. The impact of SeaWinds on Numerical Weather Prediction models is on average modest but occasionally results in significant forecast improvements.

  4. The Sun, Space Weather and GIC Effects in Sweden

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lundstedt, H.

    The solar activity drives the space weather on short-terms and the space climate on long-terms. Being close to the auroral oval has made Swedish electrical systems particularly vulnerable to space weather. Requirements for long-term planning of energy production has now also created an interest in space climate. A short description of the Swedish power system and pipeline system will be given. A historical description of the effects that occurred at times of of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), up to the most recent during the Halloween events in 2003, will be presented. All these events have created great knowledge about the effects within the Swedish power industry and an interest to collaborate with scientists in order to understand the solar causes of GICs and possibly forecast the effects of GICs. An ESA GIC Pilot Project is in progress together with the Swedish power organization ELFORSK and FMI. The goal is to implement real-time accurate forecasts of GICs in order to mitigate the effects.

  5. The sun, space weather and GIC effects in Sweden

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lundstedt, H.

    The solar activity drives the space weather on short-terms and the space climate on long-terms. Being close to the auroral oval has made Swedish electrical systems particularly vulnerable to space weather. Requirements for long-term planning of energy production has now also created an interest in space climate. A short description of the Swedish power system and pipeline system is given. A historical description of the effects that occurred at times of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), up to the Halloween events in 2003 and event in November 2004, is presented. All these events have created great knowledge about the effects within the Swedish power industry and an interest to collaborate with scientists in order to understand the solar causes of GICs and herewith possibly forecast the effects of GICs. An ESA GIC Pilot Project is in progress together with the Swedish power organization ELFORSK and FMI. The goal is to implement real-time accurate forecasts of GICs in order to mitigate the effects.

  6. The program of the Techniques Development Laboratory in aviation weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klein, W. H.

    1980-01-01

    Some operational and experimental products developed for aviation weather forecasting are briefly described. Experimental products include surface dew point, obstructions to vision, boundary layer model, computer-worded terminal forecasts, terminal alerting procedure, generalized equivalent Markov, and radar forecasts (0-2 hours).

  7. The utility of polarized heliospheric imaging for space weather monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeForest, C. E.; Howard, T. A.; Webb, D. F.; Davies, J. A.

    2016-01-01

    A polarizing heliospheric imager is a critical next generation tool for space weather monitoring and prediction. Heliospheric imagers can track coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they cross the solar system, using sunlight scattered by electrons in the CME. This tracking has been demonstrated to improve the forecasting of impact probability and arrival time for Earth-directed CMEs. Polarized imaging allows locating CMEs in three dimensions from a single vantage point. Recent advances in heliospheric imaging have demonstrated that a polarized imager is feasible with current component technology.Developing this technology to a high technology readiness level is critical for space weather relevant imaging from either a near-Earth or deep-space mission. In this primarily technical review, we developpreliminary hardware requirements for a space weather polarizing heliospheric imager system and outline possible ways to flight qualify and ultimately deploy the technology operationally on upcoming specific missions. We consider deployment as an instrument on NOAA's Deep Space Climate Observatory follow-on near the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point, as a stand-alone constellation of smallsats in low Earth orbit, or as an instrument located at the Sun-Earth L5 Lagrange point. The critical first step is the demonstration of the technology, in either a science or prototype operational mission context.

  8. Development of RGB Composite Imagery for Operational Weather Forecasting Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molthan, Andrew L.; Fuell, Kevin K.; Oswald, Hayden, K; Knaff, John A.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, in collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), is providing red-green-blue (RGB) color composite imagery to several of NOAA s National Centers and National Weather Service forecast offices as a demonstration of future capabilities of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) to be implemented aboard GOES-R. Forecasters rely upon geostationary satellite imagery to monitor conditions over their regions of responsibility. Since the ABI will provide nearly three times as many channels as the current GOES imager, the volume of data available for analysis will increase. RGB composite imagery can aid in the compression of large data volumes by combining information from multiple channels or paired channel differences into single products that communicate more information than provided by a single channel image. A standard suite of RGB imagery has been developed by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), based upon the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). The SEVIRI instrument currently provides visible and infrared wavelengths comparable to the future GOES-R ABI. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites can be used to demonstrate future capabilities of GOES-R. This presentation will demonstrate an overview of the products currently disseminated to SPoRT partners within the GOES-R Proving Ground, and other National Weather Service forecast offices, along with examples of their application. For example, CIRA has used the channels of the current GOES sounder to produce an "air mass" RGB originally designed for SEVIRI. This provides hourly imagery over CONUS for looping applications while demonstrating capabilities similar to the future ABI instrument. SPoRT has developed similar "air mass" RGB imagery from MODIS, and through

  9. A Weather Analysis and Forecasting System for Baja California, Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farfan, L. M.

    2006-05-01

    The weather of the Baja California Peninsula, part of northwestern Mexico, is mild and dry most of the year. However, during the summer, humid air masses associated with tropical cyclones move northward in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Added features that create a unique meteorological situation include mountain ranges along the spine of the peninsula, warm water in the Gulf of California, and the cold California Current in the Pacific. These features interact with the environmental flow to induce conditions that play a role in the occurrence of localized, convective systems during the approach of tropical cyclones. Most of these events occur late in the summer, generating heavy precipitation, strong winds, lightning, and are associated with significant property damage to the local populations. Our goal is to provide information on the characteristics of these weather systems by performing an analysis of observations derived from a regional network. This includes imagery from radar and geostationary satellite, and data from surface stations. A set of real-time products are generated in our research center and are made available to a broad audience (researchers, students, and business employees) by using an internet site. Graphical products are updated anywhere from one to 24 hours and includes predictions from numerical models. Forecasts are derived from an operational model (GFS) and locally generated simulations based on a mesoscale model (MM5). Our analysis and forecasting system has been in operation since the summer of 2005 and was used as a reference for a set of discussions during the development of eastern Pacific tropical cyclones. This basin had 15 named storms and none of them made landfall on the west coast of Mexico; however, four systems were within 800 km from the area of interest, resulting in some convective activity. During the whole season, a group of 30 users from our institution, government offices, and local businesses received daily information

  10. Space Weather in Magnetic Observatory Noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilder, S. A.; Truong, F.

    2012-12-01

    Space weather impacts human activity by degrading satellite operation or disrupting electrical power grids. By exploiting small differences in the time stamp between magnetometer pairs to facilitate data filtering, we find that ground-based magnetic observatories are well suited to measure space weather phenomena, and in particular, high frequency fluctuations known as pulsations. Several of the world's consortium of INTERMAGNET observatories are used in the analyses. They show that pulsation amplitudes attain a maximum near local noon over diurnal periods. Long-term trends in pulsation amplitude correlate well with the solar cycle, with the greatest effect occurring during the waning part of the cycle when the derivative of the number of sunspots attains a maximum rate of decrease. Seasonal variability and total amplitude of the diurnal expression of pulsations depends on latitude. Our study highlights the utility of ground-based observatories to understand solar phenomena and suggests how INTERMAGNET data and protocol could be better tuned to monitor space weather.

  11. Weathering a Perfect Storm from Space

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Love, Jeffrey J.

    2016-01-01

    Extreme space-weather events — intense solar and geomagnetic storms — have occurred in the past: most recently in 1859, 1921 and 1989. So scientists expect that, sooner or later, another extremely intense spaceweather event will strike Earth again. Such storms have the potential to cause widespread interference with and damage to technological systems. A National Academy of Sciences study projects that an extreme space-weather event could end up costing the American economy more than $1 trillion. The question now is whether or not we will take the actions needed to avoid such expensive consequences. Let’s assume that we do. Below is an imagined scenario of how, sometime in the future, an extreme space-weather event might play out.

  12. Space Weather Community Operations Workshop: Planning for the Next Decade

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fulgham, Jared; Meehan, Jennifer; Tobiska, W. Kent

    2011-08-01

    Scenario: Japan suffers a great earthquake, a major tsunami, and a catastrophic nuclear meltdown. Telecommunications landlines and cell phone towers are inoperable in northern prefectures. This means that high-frequency (HF) es the primary means of communication to some affected areas. This also means that 3-hradio becomour forecasts of HF availability must be provided by space weather service organizations not affected by the disaster (Figure 1). Questions: How accurate are the HF predictions? How reliable is the service? How available is the information?

  13. Weather factors in the short-term forecasting of daily ambulance calls.

    PubMed

    Wong, Ho-Ting; Lai, Poh-Chin

    2014-07-01

    The daily ambulance demand for Hong Kong is rising, and it has been shown that weather factors (temperature and humidity) play a role in the demand for ambulance services. This study aimed at developing short-term forecasting models of daily ambulance calls using the 7-day weather forecast data as predictors. We employed the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method to analyze over 1.3 million cases of emergency attendance in May 2006 through April 2009 and the 7-day weather forecast data for the same period. Our results showed that the ARIMA model could offer reasonably accurate forecasts of daily ambulance calls at 1-7 days ahead of time and with improved accuracy by including weather factors. Specifically, the inclusion of average temperature alone in our ARIMA model improved the predictability of the 1-day forecast when compared to that of a simple ARIMA model (8.8% decrease in the root mean square error, RMSE=53 vs 58). The improvement in the 7-day forecast with average temperature as a predictor was more pronounced, with a 10% drop in prediction error (RMSE=62 vs 69). These findings suggested that weather forecast data can improve the 1- to 7-day forecasts of daily ambulance demand. As weather forecast data are readily accessible from Hong Kong Observatory's official website, there is virtually no cost to including them in the ARIMA models, which yield better prediction for forward planning and deployment of ambulance manpower.

  14. Weather factors in the short-term forecasting of daily ambulance calls

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, Ho-Ting; Lai, Poh-Chin

    2013-03-01

    The daily ambulance demand for Hong Kong is rising, and it has been shown that weather factors (temperature and humidity) play a role in the demand for ambulance services. This study aimed at developing short-term forecasting models of daily ambulance calls using the 7-day weather forecast data as predictors. We employed the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method to analyze over 1.3 million cases of emergency attendance in May 2006 through April 2009 and the 7-day weather forecast data for the same period. Our results showed that the ARIMA model could offer reasonably accurate forecasts of daily ambulance calls at 1-7 days ahead of time and with improved accuracy by including weather factors. Specifically, the inclusion of average temperature alone in our ARIMA model improved the predictability of the 1-day forecast when compared to that of a simple ARIMA model (8.8 % decrease in the root mean square error, RMSE = 53 vs 58). The improvement in the 7-day forecast with average temperature as a predictor was more pronounced, with a 10 % drop in prediction error (RMSE = 62 vs 69). These findings suggested that weather forecast data can improve the 1- to 7-day forecasts of daily ambulance demand. As weather forecast data are readily accessible from Hong Kong Observatory's official website, there is virtually no cost to including them in the ARIMA models, which yield better prediction for forward planning and deployment of ambulance manpower.

  15. Weather factors in the short-term forecasting of daily ambulance calls.

    PubMed

    Wong, Ho-Ting; Lai, Poh-Chin

    2014-07-01

    The daily ambulance demand for Hong Kong is rising, and it has been shown that weather factors (temperature and humidity) play a role in the demand for ambulance services. This study aimed at developing short-term forecasting models of daily ambulance calls using the 7-day weather forecast data as predictors. We employed the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method to analyze over 1.3 million cases of emergency attendance in May 2006 through April 2009 and the 7-day weather forecast data for the same period. Our results showed that the ARIMA model could offer reasonably accurate forecasts of daily ambulance calls at 1-7 days ahead of time and with improved accuracy by including weather factors. Specifically, the inclusion of average temperature alone in our ARIMA model improved the predictability of the 1-day forecast when compared to that of a simple ARIMA model (8.8% decrease in the root mean square error, RMSE=53 vs 58). The improvement in the 7-day forecast with average temperature as a predictor was more pronounced, with a 10% drop in prediction error (RMSE=62 vs 69). These findings suggested that weather forecast data can improve the 1- to 7-day forecasts of daily ambulance demand. As weather forecast data are readily accessible from Hong Kong Observatory's official website, there is virtually no cost to including them in the ARIMA models, which yield better prediction for forward planning and deployment of ambulance manpower. PMID:23456448

  16. Weather factors in the short-term forecasting of daily ambulance calls

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, Ho-Ting; Lai, Poh-Chin

    2014-07-01

    The daily ambulance demand for Hong Kong is rising, and it has been shown that weather factors (temperature and humidity) play a role in the demand for ambulance services. This study aimed at developing short-term forecasting models of daily ambulance calls using the 7-day weather forecast data as predictors. We employed the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method to analyze over 1.3 million cases of emergency attendance in May 2006 through April 2009 and the 7-day weather forecast data for the same period. Our results showed that the ARIMA model could offer reasonably accurate forecasts of daily ambulance calls at 1-7 days ahead of time and with improved accuracy by including weather factors. Specifically, the inclusion of average temperature alone in our ARIMA model improved the predictability of the 1-day forecast when compared to that of a simple ARIMA model (8.8 % decrease in the root mean square error, RMSE = 53 vs 58). The improvement in the 7-day forecast with average temperature as a predictor was more pronounced, with a 10 % drop in prediction error (RMSE = 62 vs 69). These findings suggested that weather forecast data can improve the 1- to 7-day forecasts of daily ambulance demand. As weather forecast data are readily accessible from Hong Kong Observatory's official website, there is virtually no cost to including them in the ARIMA models, which yield better prediction for forward planning and deployment of ambulance manpower.

  17. What determines the severity of space weather?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balan, Nanan; Skoug, Ruth; Hsu, Ray R.

    Thanks to the works of a number of scientists it is known that severe space weather (SSW) can cause extensive social and economic disruptions in the modern high-tech society. It is therefore important to understand what determines the severity of space weather, and whether it can be predicted. We present the results obtained from the analysis of solar-geophysical data during 30 space weather events that occurred since 1957 and produced geomagnetic storms of intensity less than -275 nT, and the Carrington event of 1859. The results seem to indicate that (1) space weather can become severe occasionally (7 since 1957) as experienced by satellite systems, Earth-based systems and Earth’s environment. (2) It is the impulsive energy (or power) at the leading edge of the CMEs (coronal mass ejections) mainly due to impulsive leading edge velocity and partly due to density that determines the severity of space weather in the heliosphere; the higher the impulsive velocity (sudden increase by over 275 km s-1 over the background), the more severe the space weather. (3) Such CMEs with IMF Bz also southward from the leading edge cause SSW on Earth though the magnitude of southward Bz does not seem important, and the minimum impulsive velocity for SSW on Earth seems higher than that for SSW in heliosphere. (4) CMEs having northward IMF Bz at the leading edge do not seem to cause SSW on Earth though they can lead to geomagnetic storms of long duration main phase with intensity less than even -420 nT.

  18. Future Weather Forecasting in the Year 2020-Investing in Technology Today: Improving Weather and Environmental Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anthes, Richard; Schoeberl, Mark

    2000-01-01

    Fast-forward twenty years to the nightly simultaneous TV/webcast. Accurate 8-14 day regional forecasts will be available as will be a whole host of linked products including economic impact, travel, energy usage, etc. On-demand, personalized street-level forecasts will be downloaded into your PDA. Your home system will automatically update the products of interest to you (e.g. severe storm forecasts, hurricane predictions, etc). Short and long range climate forecasts will be used by your "Quicken 2020" to make suggest changes in your "futures" investment portfolio. Through a lively and informative multi-media presentation, leading Space-Earth Science Researchers and Technologists will share their vision for the year 2020, offering a possible futuristic forecast enabled through the application of new technologies under development today. Copies of the 'broadcast' will be available on Beta Tape for your own future use. If sufficient interest exists, the program may also be made available for broadcasters wishing to do stand-ups with roll-ins from the San Francisco meeting for their viewers back home.

  19. ManUniCast: A Community Weather and Air-Quality Forecasting Teaching Portal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, David M.; Anderson, Stuart; Fairman, Jonathan G.; Lowe, Douglas; McFiggans, Gordon; Lee, Elsa; Seo-Zindy, Ryo

    2014-05-01

    Manunicast was borne out of the needs of our teaching program: students were entering a world where environmental prediction via numerical model was an essential skill, but were not exposed to the production or output of such models. Our site is an educational testbed to explain to students and the public how weather, air-quality, and air-chemistry forecasts are made using real-time predictions as examples. As far as we know, this site provides the first freely available real-time predictions for the UK. We perform two simulations a day over three domains using the most popular, freely available, community atmospheric mesoscale and chemistry models WRF-ARW and WRF-Chem: 1. a WRF-ARW domain over the North Atlantic and western Europe (20-km horizontal grid spacing) 2. a WRF-ARW domain over the UK and Ireland (4-km grid spacing, nested within the 20-km domain) 3. a WRF-Chem domain over the UK and Ireland (12-km grid spacing) Called ManUniCast (Manchester University Forecast), we offer a suite of products from horizontal maps, time series at stations (meteograms), skew-T-logp charts, and cross sections to help students better visualize the weather and the relationships between the various fields more effectively, specifically through the ability to overlay and fade between different plotted products. This presentation discusses how we funded and built ManUniCast, the struggles we faced, and its use in our classes.

  20. Opportunities and challenges of indigenous biotic weather forecasting among the Borena herders of southern Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Ayal, Desalegn Yayeh; Desta, Solomon; Gebru, Getachew; Kinyangi, James; Recha, John; Radeny, Maren

    2015-01-01

    The practical utilization of available modern as well as traditional weather forecasting systems builds herders' resiliency capacity to climatic shocks. The precision and reliability of the forecasting system determines its creditability and acceptance by the users to be proactive in the decisions they make based on the forecasted information. It has been postulated that traditional weather forecasting systems are becoming less reliable due to repeated faulty forecasts. The study assesses the current status of the Borana traditional weather forecasting system and how traditional experts make weather forecasts based on biotic indicators such as intestinal readings, changes in plant and animal body languages. Questionnaire survey, field observations, focus group discussions and interviews with relevant key informants were employed to obtain data. Collected field data was compared with National Metrological Service Agency instrumental data for consistency. Results reveal that herders made short term weather forecasts using intestinal readings, and observed changes in plant and animal body languages. The study shows the extent how public confidence in the accuracy of indigenous weather forecasting skills has been gradually eroded overtime due to faulty forecasts. The precision and credibility of the traditional weather forecast steadily declined and led to repeated faulty predictions. Poor documentation, oral based knowledge transfer system, influence of religion and modern education, aging and extinction of traditional experts were identified as the major causes undermining the vitality of traditional climate forecast. Traditional weather foresting knowledge and skill could have some utility and also serve as a starting point to scientifically study the relationship between various signs and implied climatic events. This article recommends before traditional Borana weather forecasting system completely disappears, a remedial action should be carried out to rescue this

  1. Cloud-Based Numerical Weather Prediction for Near Real-Time Forecasting and Disaster Response

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molthan, Andrew; Case, Jonathan; Venners, Jason; Schroeder, Richard; Checchi, Milton; Zavodsky, Bradley; Limaye, Ashutosh; O'Brien, Raymond

    2015-01-01

    The use of cloud computing resources continues to grow within the public and private sector components of the weather enterprise as users become more familiar with cloud-computing concepts, and competition among service providers continues to reduce costs and other barriers to entry. Cloud resources can also provide capabilities similar to high-performance computing environments, supporting multi-node systems required for near real-time, regional weather predictions. Referred to as "Infrastructure as a Service", or IaaS, the use of cloud-based computing hardware in an on-demand payment system allows for rapid deployment of a modeling system in environments lacking access to a large, supercomputing infrastructure. Use of IaaS capabilities to support regional weather prediction may be of particular interest to developing countries that have not yet established large supercomputing resources, but would otherwise benefit from a regional weather forecasting capability. Recently, collaborators from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and Ames Research Center have developed a scripted, on-demand capability for launching the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center (STRC) Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which includes pre-compiled binaries of the latest version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF-EMS provides scripting for downloading appropriate initial and boundary conditions from global models, along with higher-resolution vegetation, land surface, and sea surface temperature data sets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center. This presentation will provide an overview of the modeling system capabilities and benchmarks performed on the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) environment. In addition, the presentation will discuss future opportunities to deploy the system in support of weather prediction in developing countries supported by NASA's SERVIR Project, which provides capacity building

  2. The Ensemble Space Weather Modeling System (eSWMS): Status, Capabilities and Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fry, C. D.; Eccles, J. V.; Reich, J. P.

    2010-12-01

    Marking a milestone in space weather forecasting, the Space Weather Modeling System (SWMS) successfully completed validation testing in advance of operational testing at Air Force Weather Agency’s primary space weather production center. This is the first coupling of stand-alone, physics-based space weather models that are currently in operations at AFWA supporting the warfighter. Significant development effort went into ensuring the component models were portable and scalable while maintaining consistent results across diverse high performance computing platforms. Coupling was accomplished under the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The coupled space weather models are the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 (HAFv2) solar wind model and GAIM1, the ionospheric forecast component of the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) model. The SWMS was developed by team members from AFWA, Explorations Physics International, Inc. (EXPI) and Space Environment Corporation (SEC). The successful development of the SWMS provides new capabilities beyond enabling extended lead-time, data-driven ionospheric forecasts. These include ingesting diverse data sets at higher resolution, incorporating denser computational grids at finer time steps, and performing probability-based ensemble forecasts. Work of the SWMS development team now focuses on implementing the ensemble-based probability forecast capability by feeding multiple scenarios of 5 days of solar wind forecasts to the GAIM1 model based on the variation of the input fields to the HAFv2 model. The ensemble SWMS (eSWMS) will provide the most-likely space weather scenario with uncertainty estimates for important forecast fields. The eSWMS will allow DoD mission planners to consider the effects of space weather on their systems with more advance warning than is currently possible. The payoff is enhanced, tailored support to the warfighter with improved capabilities, such as point-to-point HF propagation forecasts

  3. a Roadmap to Advance Understanding of the Science of Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schrijver, K.; Kauristie, K.; Aylward, A.; De Nardin, C. M.; Gibson, S. E.; Glover, A.; Gopalswamy, N.; Grande, M.; Hapgood, M. A.; Heynderickx, D.; Jakowski, N.; Kalegaev, V. V.; Lapenta, G.; Linker, J.; Liu, S.; Mandrini, C. H.; Mann, I. R.; Nagatsuma, T.; Nandy, D.; Obara, T.; O'Brien, T. P., III; Onsager, T. G.; Opgenoorth, H. J.; Terkildsen, M. B.; Valladares, C. E.; Vilmer, N.

    2015-12-01

    There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. A COSPAR/ILWS team recently completed a roadmap that identifies the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications and costs for society. This presentation provides a summary of the highest-priority recommendations from that roadmap.

  4. Evaluating the use of high-resolution numerical weather forecast for debris flow prediction.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Bartsotas, Nikolaos S.; Borga, Marco; Kallos, George

    2015-04-01

    The sudden occurrence combined with the high destructive power of debris flows pose a significant threat to human life and infrastructures. Therefore, developing early warning procedures for the mitigation of debris flows risk is of great economical and societal importance. Given that rainfall is the predominant factor controlling debris flow triggering, it is indisputable that development of effective debris flows warning procedures requires accurate knowledge of the properties (e.g. duration, intensity) of the triggering rainfall. Moreover, efficient and timely response of emergency operations depends highly on the lead-time provided by the warning systems. Currently, the majority of early warning systems for debris flows are based on nowcasting procedures. While the latter may be successful in predicting the hazard, they provide warnings with a relatively short lead-time (~6h). Increasing the lead-time is necessary in order to improve the pre-incident operations and communication of the emergency, thus coupling warning systems with weather forecasting is essential for advancing early warning procedures. In this work we evaluate the potential of using high-resolution (1km) rainfall fields forecasted with a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model (RAMS/ICLAMS), in order to predict the occurrence of debris flows. Analysis is focused over the Upper Adige region, Northeast Italy, an area where debris flows are frequent. Seven storm events that generated a large number (>80) of debris flows during the period 2007-2012 are analyzed. Radar-based rainfall estimates, available from the operational C-band radar located at Mt Macaion, are used as the reference to evaluate the forecasted rainfall fields. Evaluation is mainly focused on assessing the error in forecasted rainfall properties (magnitude, duration) and the correlation in space and time with the reference field. Results show that the forecasted rainfall fields captured very well the magnitude and

  5. Weather forecast needs from the viewpoint of hydrology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Donald M.; Buchanan, Thomas J.

    1980-01-01

    Hydrologists now depend on directly observed data in their forecasting and only infrequently use meteorological forecasts. Case studies show how reliable meteorological forecasts could be beneficial in flood and drought situations. Hydrologists need meteorological forecasts that recognize spatial variability, that are unbiased, and that have a specified degree of uncertainty. (USGS)

  6. Interplanetary Space Weather: A New Paradigm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guhathakurta, Madhulika

    2013-04-01

    In September 1859, Earth was hit by a solar storm so powerful that it set telegraph offices on fire and sparked northern lights in the South Pacific. Historians call it the "Carrington Event," after English astronomer Richard Carrington, who witnessed the instigating solar flare on a projecting screen with his unaided eyes. Many consider this to be the birth of space weather.

  7. Overview of Space Weather Impacts and NASA Space Weather Center Services and Products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zheng, Y.

    2012-01-01

    The presentation is divided into two major components. First, I will give an overview of space weather phenomenon and their associated impacts. Then I will describe the comprehensive list of products and tools that NASA Space Weather Center has developed by leveraging more than a decade long modeling experience enabled by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and latest scientific research results from the broad science community. In addition, a summary of the space weather activities we have been engaged in and our operational experience will be provided.

  8. Space Weather Models - What They Can and Cannot Do.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MacNeice, P. J.

    2014-12-01

    For more than 10 years, the CCMC has been hosting and testing almost all of the models currently used for space weather forecasting, and those in the pipeline for future use. This puts us in a unique position to review their capabilities, identify strengths and weaknesses, and project the arrival in the operational forecasting theatre of new, more accurate and more comprehensive forecasting tools. In this talk we will review the current status of forecasting models, focussing on those for the solar corona and inner heliosphere, including their impact on the Earth's magnetosphere. We will identify their capabilities and weaknesses. We will discuss how these weaknesses may be addressed in the near and mid-term, with new models, model updates and new supporting tools. We will assess the expected use of time dependent assimilative models of photospheric magnetic field and of time dependent high resolution and high cadence vector magnetograms on near term heliophysical model development. We will also discuss a web based semi-automated model validation project which the modeling community has been developing.

  9. Asteroid Surface Alteration by Space Weathering Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunetto, R.; Loeffler, M. J.; Nesvorný, D.; Sasaki, S.; Strazzulla, G.

    Micrometeorite bombardment and irradiation by solar wind and cosmic-ray ions cause variations in the optical properties of small solar system bodies surfaces, affecting efforts to draw connections between specific meteorites and asteroid types. These space weathering processes have been widely studied for the Moon and S- and V-type asteroids, and they are currently being investigated for other asteroid types. Here we review the laboratory studies performed by several groups on meteorites and asteroid surface analogs, aimed at simulating space weathering by using ion irradiation and laser ablation. Together with direct evidence of weathering of particles from asteroid Itokawa acquired by the Hayabusa mission, these results have provided a fundamental contribution to the spectral interpretation of asteroid observations, to establish a solid asteroids-meteorites link, and to understand the energetic processes affecting the surfaces of minor bodies. A general scheme for asteroid optical maturation is thus emerging. Slope trends from large surveys and in particular of young asteroid families have confirmed that solar wind is the main source of rapid (104-106 yr) weathering, and that a number of rejuvenating processes (impacts by small meteorites, planetary encounters, regolith shaking, etc.) efficiently counterbalance the fast weathering timescales.

  10. CME front and severe space weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balan, N.; Skoug, R.; Tulasi Ram, S.; Rajesh, P. K.; Shiokawa, K.; Otsuka, Y.; Batista, I. S.; Ebihara, Y.; Nakamura, T.

    2014-12-01

    Thanks to the work of a number of scientists who made it known that severe space weather can cause extensive social and economic disruptions in the modern high-technology society. It is therefore important to understand what determines the severity of space weather and whether it can be predicted. We present results obtained from the analysis of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), solar energetic particle (SEP) events, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), CME-magnetosphere coupling, and geomagnetic storms associated with the major space weather events since 1998 by combining data from the ACE and GOES satellites with geomagnetic parameters and the Carrington event of 1859, the Quebec event of 1989, and an event in 1958. The results seem to indicate that (1) it is the impulsive energy mainly due to the impulsive velocity and orientation of IMF Bz at the leading edge of the CMEs (or CME front) that determine the severity of space weather. (2) CMEs having high impulsive velocity (sudden nonfluctuating increase by over 275 km s-1 over the background) caused severe space weather (SvSW) in the heliosphere (failure of the solar wind ion mode of Solar Wind Electron Proton Alpha Monitor in ACE) probably by suddenly accelerating the high-energy particles in the SEPs ahead directly or through the shocks. (3) The impact of such CMEs which also show the IMF Bz southward from the leading edge caused SvSW at the Earth including extreme geomagnetic storms of mean DstMP < -250 nT during main phases, and the known electric power outages happened during some of these SvSW events. (4) The higher the impulsive velocity, the more severe the space weather, like faster weather fronts and tsunami fronts causing more severe damage through impulsive action. (5) The CMEs having IMF Bz northward at the leading edge do not seem to cause SvSW on Earth, although, later when the IMF Bz turns southward, they can lead to super geomagnetic storms of intensity (Dstmin) less than even -400 nT.

  11. How to judge the quality and value of weather forecast products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thornes, John E.; Stephenson, David B.

    2001-09-01

    In order to decide whether or not a weather service supplier is giving good value for money we need to monitor the quality of the forecasts and the use that is made of the forecasts to estimate their value. A number of verification statistics are examined to measure the quality of forecasts - including Miss Rate, False Alarm Rate, the Peirce Skill Score and the Odds Ratio Skill Score - and a means of testing the significance of these values is presented. In order to assess the economic value of the forecasts a value index is suggested that takes into account the cost-loss ratio and forecast errors. It is suggested that a combination of these quality and value statistics could be used by weather forecast customers to choose the best forecast provider and to set limits for performance related contracts.

  12. Downscaling of Bulgarian chemical weather forecast from Bulgaria region to Sofia city

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Syrakov, D.; Etropolska, I.; Prodanova, M.; Slavov, K.; Ganev, K.; Miloshev, N.; Ljubenov, T.

    2013-10-01

    In the paper, Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecast System (BgCWFS), version 3, will be described end the respective end-user products will be demonstrated. Chemical Weather is understood as concentration distribution of some key pollutants in a particular area and its changes during some forecast period. In Bulgaria, a prototype of such a system was built in the frame of a project with the National Science fund. It covers a relatively small domain including Bulgaria that requires the use of chemical boundary conditions (CBC) from similar foreign systems. The last version of the System is built in the frame of EU FP7 project PASODOBLE. Following its requirements, concentration data (CBC) for the region of Bulgaria are provided by SILAM System of Finish Meteorological Institute. It operates over the whole European region but is able to provide data for any European sub-domain by its THREDDS service. The customer makes an Internet request containing all necessary parameters - sub-region dimensions, pollutants, period of forecast etc. In a few minutes, the request is proceeded and all required data is downloaded as a single NetCDF file. This file is post-processed as to obtain the necessary boundary conditions. The new version of the system is built on the base of the nesting approach - two other domains with increasing resolution are nested in the Bulgaria one downscaling to 1 km space resolution over Sofia city. The System is fully atomized. Computations start at 00 UTC every day and the forecast period is 72 hours. It is based on the well known models WRF (Mesometeorological Model) and US EPA dispersion model CMAQ (Chemical Transport Model). As emission input the 2010 inventory data prepared by Bulgarian environmental authorities is exploited. The results are presented in the System's web-site (http://www.niggg.bas.bg/cw3/).

  13. Utilizing real-time and near real-time data in the iNtegrated Space Weather Analysis System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maddox, M. M.; Mullinix, R. E.; Rastaetter, L.; Pulkkinen, A.; Zheng, Y.; Berrios, D.; Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Taktakishvili, A.; Chulaki, A.; Shim, J.; Bakshi, S. S.; Patel, K. D.; Jain, P.

    2010-12-01

    Access to near real-time and real-time space weather data is essential to accurately specifying and forecasting the space environment. The Space Weather Desk at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Space Weather Laboratory provides vital space weather forecasting services primarily to NASA robotic mission operators, as well as external space weather stakeholders including the Air Force Weather Agency. A key component in this activity is the iNtegrated Space Weather Analysis System which is a joint development project at NASA GSFC between the Space Weather Laboratory, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Applied Engineering & Technology Directorate, and NASA HQ Office Of Chief Engineer. The iSWA system was developed to address technical challenges in acquiring and disseminating space weather environment information. A key design driver for the iSWA system was to generate and present vast amounts of space weather resources in an intuitive, user-configurable, and adaptable format - thus enabling users to respond to current and future space weather impacts as well as enabling post-impact analysis. Having access to near real-time and real-time data is essential to not only ensuring that relevant observational data is available for analysis - but also in ensuring that models can be driven with the requisite input parameters at proper and efficient temporal and spacial resolutions. The iSWA system currently manages over 250 unique near-real and real-time data feeds from various sources consisting of both observational and simulation data. A comprehensive suite of actionable space weather analysis tools and products are generated and provided utilizing a mixture of the ingested data - enabling new capabilities in quickly assessing past, present, and expected space weather effects. This paper will highlight current and future iSWA system capabilities and also discuss some of the challenges and lessons-learned in dealing with diverse real-time and near-real time space

  14. Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koller, J.

    2011-12-01

    Los Alamos National Lab recently initiated a new summer school specializing on space science, space weather, and instrumentation. The school is geared towards graduate level students and has been established to bring graduate students together with internationally recognized scientists at the Los Alamos National Lab. Students are receiving a prestigious Vela Fellowship to cover relocation expenses and cost of living for the duration of their stay in Los Alamos. For two months students have the opportunity to attend science lectures given by distinguished researchers at LANL. Topics are related to space weather research including plasma physics, radiation belts, numerical modeling, solar wind physics, spacecraft charging, and instrumentation. Students are also working closely with a Los Alamos mentor on exciting space weather science topics with access to Los Alamos GPS and geosynchronous data. The summer school concludes with project presentations by the students in a technical forum. The program is designed for graduate students currently enrolled at US Universities and open to all nationalities. We are presenting an overview of this exciting new program funded by IGPP (Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics), the Global Security Directorate, and the Directorate for Science, Technology and Engineering at Los Alamos National Lab.

  15. Frost Monitoring and Forecasting Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature Data and a Numerical Weather Prediction Model Forecasts for Eastern Africa

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kabuchanga, Eric; Flores, Africa; Malaso, Susan; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Shaka, Ayub; Limaye, Ashutosh

    2014-01-01

    Frost is a major challenge across Eastern Africa, severely impacting agricultural farms. Frost damages have wide ranging economic implications on tea and coffee farms, which represent a major economic sector. Early monitoring and forecasting will enable farmers to take preventive actions to minimize the losses. Although clearly important, timely information on when to protect crops from freezing is relatively limited. MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data, derived from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, and 72-hr weather forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Service's operational Weather Research Forecast model are enabling the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to provide timely information to farmers in the region. This presentation will highlight an ongoing collaboration among the Kenya Meteorological Service, RCMRD, and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to identify frost events and provide farmers with potential frost forecasts in Eastern Africa.

  16. Frost monitoring and forecasting using MODIS Land Surface Temperature data and a Numerical Weather Prediction model forecasts for Eastern Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Limaye, A. S.; Kabuchanga, E. S.; Flores, A.; Mungai, J.; Sakwa, V. N.; Shaka, A.; Malaso, S.; Irwin, D.

    2014-12-01

    Frost is a major challenge across Eastern Africa, severely impacting agriculture. Frost damages have wide ranging economic implications on tea and coffee farms, which represent a major economic sector. Early monitoring and forecasting will enable farmers to take preventive actions to minimize the losses. Although clearly important, timely information on when to protect crops from freezing is relatively limited. MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data, derived from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, and 72-hr weather forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Service's operational Weather Research Forecast model are enabling the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to provide timely information to farmers in the region. This presentation will highlight an ongoing collaboration among the Kenya Meteorological Service, RCMRD, and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to identify frost events and provide farmers with potential frost forecasts in Eastern Africa.

  17. Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

    SciTech Connect

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-08-15

    We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

  18. The Impact of the Assimilation of AIRS Radiance Measurements on Short-term Weather Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McCarty, Will; Jedlovec, Gary; Miller, Timothy L.

    2009-01-01

    Advanced spaceborne instruments have the ability to improve the horizontal and vertical characterization of temperature and water vapor in the atmosphere through the explicit use of hyperspectral thermal infrared radiance measurements. The incorporation of these measurements into a data assimilation system provides a means to continuously characterize a three-dimensional, instantaneous atmospheric state necessary for the time integration of numerical weather forecasts. Measurements from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are incorporated into the gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation system to provide improved initial conditions for use in a mesoscale modeling framework mimicking that of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. The methodologies for the incorporation of the measurements into the system are presented. Though the measurements have been shown to have a positive impact in global modeling systems, the measurements are further constrained in this system as the model top is physically lower than the global systems and there is no ozone characterization in the background state. For a study period, the measurements are shown to have positive impact on both the analysis state as well as subsequently spawned short-term (0-48 hr) forecasts, particularly in forecasted geopotential height and precipitation fields. At 48 hr, height anomaly correlations showed an improvement in forecast skill of 2.3 hours relative to a system without the AIRS measurements. Similarly, the equitable threat and bias scores of precipitation forecasts of 25 mm (6 hr)-1 were shown to be improved by 8% and 7%, respectively.

  19. Extreme space weather studies: Addressing societal needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ngwira, C. M.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme space weather events can adversely impact the operations of critical modern-day technological infrastructure such as high-voltage electric power transmission grids. Understanding of coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere dynamics under extreme solar wind driving conditions is still a major challenge mainly because of a lack of data during such time intervals. This presentation will highlight some of the past and on-going investigations on extreme space weather events, and how these investigations are used to address societal needs. Particularly, I will describe how first principles physics-based 3-D global MHD models are playing a major role in advancing our knowledge on extreme geomagnetically induced currents. These MHD models represent a very important component of attempts to understand the response of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system to varying solar wind conditions.

  20. Global Navigation Satellite Systems and Space Weather: Building upon the International Space Weather Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gadimova, S. H.; Haubold, H. J.

    2014-01-01

    Globally there is growing interest in better unders tanding solar-terrestrial interactions, particularly patterns and trends in space weather. This is not only for scientific reasons, but also because the reliable operation of ground-based and space-based assets and infrastructures is increasingly dependent on their robustness against the detrimental effects of space weather. Consequently, in 2009, the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) proposed the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI), as a follow-up activity to the International Heliophysical Year 2007 (IHY2007), to be implemented under a three-year workplan from 2010 to 2012 (UNGA Document, A/64/20). All achievements of international cooperation and coordination for ISWI, including instrumentation, data analysis, modelling, education, training and public outreach, are made a vailable through the ISWI Newsletter and the ISWI Website (http://www.iswi-secretariat.org/). Since the last solar maximum in 2000, societal dependence on global navigation satellite system (GNSS) has increased substantially. This situation has brought increasing attention to the subject of space weather and its effects on GNSS systems and users. Results concerning the impact of space weather on GNSS are made available at the Information Portal (www.unoosa.org) of the International Committee on Global Navigati on Satellite Systems (ICG). This paper briefly reviews the curre nt status of ISWI with regard to GNSS.

  1. [Space Weather Impact on the Electricity Market

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    SaintCyr, O. Chris

    2007-01-01

    Forbes & St. Cyr (2004, hereafter "FISC") have provided evidence that the electricity market can be impacted by space weather. Our analysis indicated that the estimated market impact for PJM was 3.7 % or approximately $500 million dollars over the 19 month sample period. Kappenman has taken exception to this estimate and contends that we have exaggerated the magnitude of the problem that space weather poses to PJM. There are four specific issues: (1) he claims that we have ignored relevant literature; (2) he asserts that Dst is not an appropriate proxy for GICs in PJM; (3) he charges that our findings are inconsistent with the impact of the 17 September 2000 storm; and (4) he alleges that our discussion of October 2003 storms is misleading. In our article, we have explained our methodology, multivariate regression analysis, with a particular focus on how it compares to correlation analysis. We have also explained the limitations of our analysis. We noted that "...While the Dstlprice relationship was found to be robust, the precise estimate should be treated with a relatively high degree of caution given that econometric modeling is not an exact science as well as the fact that the measure of space weather may be a poor proxy for GICs" (paragraph 96). We have also noted that additional research using local magnetometer data are needed (paragraph 97). We did not claim that that our findings for PJM are representative of the impact of space weather on other power grids. On the contrary, we noted that ... "Only analysis of other power grids will tell. " (paragraph 97). Kappenman inaccurately asserts that we have indicated that our findings . . . "imply much higher total costs are likely across the US and elsewhere in the world." He also inaccurately asserts that we have claimed that " . . . Dst is the most suited proxy for GIC in the PJM grid.. ." Moreover, he inaccurately refers to our analysis as a correlation study that uses Dst as quasi-binary indicator.

  2. Third Space Weather Summit Held for Industry and Government Agencies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Intriligator, Devrie S.

    2009-12-01

    The potential for space weather effects has been increasing significantly in recent years. For instance, in 2008 airlines flew about 8000 transpolar flights, which experience greater exposure to space weather than nontranspolar flights. This is up from 368 transpolar flights in 2000, and the number of such flights is expected to continue to grow. Transpolar flights are just one example of the diverse technologies susceptible to space weather effects identified by the National Research Council's Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report (2008). To discuss issues related to the increasing need for reliable space weather information, experts from industry and government agencies met at the third summit of the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group (CSWIG) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), held 30 April 2009 during Space Weather Week (SWW), in Boulder, Colo.

  3. Solar Sources of Severe Space Weather

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.; Shibasaki, K.

    2012-01-01

    Severe space weather is characterized by intense particle radiation from the Sun and severe geomagnetic storm caused by magnetized solar plasma arriving at Earth. Intense particle radiation is almost always caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) traveling from the Sun at super-Alfvenic speeds leading to fast-mode MHD shocks and particle acceleration by the shocks. When a CME arrives at Earth, it can interact with Earth's magnetopause resulting in solar plasma entry into the magnetosphere and a geomagnetic storm depending on the magnetic structure of the CME. Particle radiation starts affecting geospace as soon as the CMEs leave the Sun and the geospace may be immersed in the radiation for several days. On the other hand, the geomagnetic storm happens only upon arrival of the CME at Earth. The requirements for the production of particles and magnetic storms by CMEs are different in a number of respects: solar source location, CME magnetic structure, conditions in the ambient solar wind, and shock-driving ability of CMEs. Occasionally, intense geomagnetic storms are caused by corotating interaction regions (CIRs) that form in the interplanetary space when the fast solar wind from coronal holes overtakes the slow wind from the quiet regions. CIRs also accelerate particles, but when they reach several AU from the Sun, so their impact on Earth's space environment is not significant. In addition to these plasma effects, solar flares that accompany CMEs also produce excess ionization in the ionosphere causing sudden ionospheric disturbances. This paper highlights these space weather effects using space weather events observed by space and ground based instruments during of solar cycles 23 and 24.

  4. Value of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts: Assessment by Real-Time Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling

    SciTech Connect

    Cai, Ximing; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Wang, Dingbao

    2011-09-29

    This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The forecasts and their probability distributions are incorporated into a simulation-optimization modeling framework. In this study, modeling irrigation is determined by a stochastic optimization program based on the simulated soil moisture and crop water-stress status and the forecasted rainfall for the next 1-7 days. The modeling framework is applied to irrigated corn in Mason County, Illinois. It is found that there is ample potential to improve current farmers practices by simply using the proposed simulation-optimization framework, which uses the present soil moisture and crop evapotranspiration information even without any forecasts. It is found that the values of the forecasts vary across dry, normal, and wet years. More significant economic gains are found in normal and wet years than in dry years under the various forecast horizons. To mitigate drought effect on crop yield through irrigation, medium- or long-term climate predictions likely play a more important role than short-term forecasts. NOAA's imperfect 1-week forecast is still valuable in terms of both profit gain and water saving. Compared with the no-rain forecast case, the short-term imperfect forecasts could lead to additional 2.4-8.5% gain in profit and 11.0-26.9% water saving. However, the performance of the imperfect forecast is only slightly better than the ensemble weather forecast based on historical data and slightly inferior to the perfect forecast. It seems that the 1-week forecast horizon is too limited to evaluate the role of the various forecast scenarios for irrigation scheduling, which is actually a seasonal decision issue. For irrigation scheduling, both the forecast quality and the length of forecast time horizon matter. Thus, longer forecasts might be necessary to evaluate the role

  5. Near-Real Time Data for Space Weather Analyses: Present Status and Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael; Pulkkinen, Antti; Zheng, Yihua; Maddox, Marlo H.; Kuznetsova, Maria M.

    2011-01-01

    Assessments of the present state and future evolution of the space environment heavily relies on timely access to appropriate environmental measurements. These, near real-time (nrt), measurements provide a direct assessment of local or remote space environment conditions, they contribute to a more global description of Space Weather parameters through assimilative models, and they provide essential input into forecasting models. Unlike meteorology, however, the provision of these data is not a mainstream activity in the sense that critical space environment data are often derived from research rather than operational sensors. In addition, space research is a relatively immature field, where SUbstantial gaps in our knowledge impede our ability to optimally use available data streams. In this presentation, we provide examples of presently employed nrt data streams and their utility. We further discuss challenges and opportunities associated with the present approach to space weather forecasting. Finally, an outlook toward the future will be presented.

  6. Space weather activities at NOAA s Space Environment Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunches, J.

    The NOAA Space Environment Center is the focal point for real-time space weather monitoring and prediction in the United States . The Space Weather Operations (SWO) division staffs a 24-hour/day operations center, through which both in-situ and remotely sensed data and imagery flow. These diverse data streams are analyzed continuously, and that information is applied to both predictions and specifications of various aspects of the space environment. These include the behavior of the geomagnetic field, the character of the ionosphere, and the strength of the near-earth radiation environment. Models are brought to bear in each of thes e areas, as SEC has an active research-to-operations transition effort. The Rapid Prototyping Center is the venue through which pertinent models and data must pass to be brought into the operational arena. The model outputs are then made available both internally and externally. SEC is a member of the International Space Environment Service (ISES), a partnership currently consisting of eleven nations. The mission of the ISES is to encourage and facilitate near-real-time international monitoring and prediction of the space environment by: the rapid exchange of space environment information; the standardization of the methodology for space environment observations and data reduction; the uniform publication of observations and statistics; and the application of standardized space environment products and services to assist users in reducing the impact of space weather on activities of human interest. An overview of the operational attributes of the SEC, and the function of the ISES, will be presented. Additional issues related to space weather customers, new data streams to be available in the near-term, and how these new data and imagery will be integrated int o operations will be discussed.

  7. Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Support Local Model Verification at National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; Gotway, John H.; White, Kristopher; Medlin, Jeffrey; Wood, Lance; Radell, Dave

    2014-01-01

    Local modeling with a customized configuration is conducted at National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to produce high-resolution numerical forecasts that can better simulate local weather phenomena and complement larger scale global and regional models. The advent of the Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which provides a pre-compiled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and wrapper Perl scripts, has enabled forecasters to easily configure and execute the WRF model on local workstations. NWS WFOs often use EMS output to help in forecasting highly localized, mesoscale features such as convective initiation, the timing and inland extent of lake effect snow bands, lake and sea breezes, and topographically-modified winds. However, quantitatively evaluating model performance to determine errors and biases still proves to be one of the challenges in running a local model. Developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification software makes performing these types of quantitative analyses easier, but operational forecasters do not generally have time to familiarize themselves with navigating the sometimes complex configurations associated with the MET tools. To assist forecasters in running a subset of MET programs and capabilities, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed and transitioned a set of dynamic, easily configurable Perl scripts to collaborating NWS WFOs. The objective of these scripts is to provide SPoRT collaborating partners in the NWS with the ability to evaluate the skill of their local EMS model runs in near real time with little prior knowledge of the MET package. The ultimate goal is to make these verification scripts available to the broader NWS community in a future version of the EMS software. This paper provides an overview of the SPoRT MET scripts, instructions for how the scripts are run, and example use

  8. Training the next generation of scientists in Weather Forecasting: new approaches with real models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carver, Glenn; Váňa, Filip; Siemen, Stephan; Kertesz, Sandor; Keeley, Sarah

    2014-05-01

    The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts operationally produce medium range forecasts using what is internationally acknowledged as the world leading global weather forecast model. Future development of this scientifically advanced model relies on a continued availability of experts in the field of meteorological science and with high-level software skills. ECMWF therefore has a vested interest in young scientists and University graduates developing the necessary skills in numerical weather prediction including both scientific and technical aspects. The OpenIFS project at ECMWF maintains a portable version of the ECMWF forecast model (known as IFS) for use in education and research at Universities, National Meteorological Services and other research and education organisations. OpenIFS models can be run on desktop or high performance computers to produce weather forecasts in a similar way to the operational forecasts at ECMWF. ECMWF also provide the Metview desktop application, a modern, graphical, and easy to use tool for analysing and visualising forecasts that is routinely used by scientists and forecasters at ECMWF and other institutions. The combination of Metview with the OpenIFS models has the potential to deliver classroom-friendly tools allowing students to apply their theoretical knowledge to real-world examples using a world-leading weather forecasting model. In this paper we will describe how the OpenIFS model has been used for teaching. We describe the use of Linux based 'virtual machines' pre-packaged on USB sticks that support a technically easy and safe way of providing 'classroom-on-a-stick' learning environments for advanced training in numerical weather prediction. We welcome discussions with interested parties.

  9. Operational Space Weather Products at IPS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neudegg, D.; Steward, G.; Marshall, R.; Terkildsen, M.; Kennewell, J.; Patterson, G.; Panwar, R.

    2008-12-01

    IPS Radio and Space Services operates an extensive network (IPSNET) of monitoring stations and observatories within the Australasian and Antarctic regions to gather information on the space environment. This includes ionosondes, magnetometers, GPS-ISM, oblique HF sounding, riometers, and solar radio and optical telescopes. IPS exchanges this information with similar organisations world-wide. The Regional Warning Centre (RWC) is the Australian Space Forecast Centre (ASFC) and it utilizes this data to provide products and services to support customer operations. A wide range of customers use IPS services including; defence force and emergency services using HF radio communications and surveillance systems, organisations involved in geophysical exploration and pipeline cathodic protection, GPS users in aviation. Subscriptions to the alerts, warnings, forecasts and reports regarding the solar, geophysical and ionospheric conditions are distributed by email and Special Message Service (SMS). IPS also develops and markets widely used PC software prediction tools for HF radio skywave and surface wave (ASAPS/GWPS) and provides consultancy services for system planning.

  10. Global economic impacts of severe Space Weather.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schulte In Den Baeumen, Hagen; Cairns, Iver

    Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) strong enough to create electromagnetic effects at latitudes below the auroral oval are frequent events, and could have substantial impacts on electric power transmission and telecommunication grids. Modern society’s heavy reliance on these domestic and international networks increases our susceptibility to such a severe Space Weather event. Using a new high-resolution model of the global economy we simulate the economic impact of large CMEs for 3 different planetary orientations. We account for the economic impacts within the countries directly affected as well as the post-disaster economic shock in partner economies through international trade. For the CMEs modeled the total global economic impacts would range from US 380 billion to US 1 trillion. Of this total economic shock 50 % would be felt in countries outside the zone of direct impact, leading to a loss in global GDP of 0.1 - 1 %. A severe Space Weather event could lead to global economic damages of the same order as other weather disasters, climate change, and extreme financial crisis.

  11. On the Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Space Weather Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Riley, Pete

    2012-01-01

    By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and greater than 30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst less than - 850 nT) occurring within the next decade is approximately 12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.

  12. Comparative science and space weather around the heliosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grande, Manuel

    2016-07-01

    Space weather refers to the variable state of the coupled space environment related to changing conditions on the Sun and in the terrestrial atmosphere. The presentation will focus on the critical missing knowledge or observables needed to significantly advance our modelling and forecasting capabilities throughout the solar system putting these in perspective to the recommendations in the recent COSPAR/ILWS roadmap. The COSPAR/ILWS RoadMap focuses on high-priority challenges in key areas of research leading to a better understanding of the space environment and a demonstrable improvement in the provision of timely, reliable information pertinent to effects on civilian space- and ground-based systems, for all stakeholders around the world. The RoadMap prioritizes those advances that can be made on short, intermediate and decadal time scales, identifying gaps and opportunities from a predominantly, but not exclusively, geocentric perspective. While discussion of space weather effects has so far largely been confined to the near-Earth environment, there are significant present and future applications to the locations beyond, and to other planets. Most obviously, perhaps, are the radiation hazards experienced by astronauts on the way to, and on the surface of, the Moon and Mars. Indeed, the environment experienced by planetary spacecraft in transit and at their destinations is of course critical to their design and successful operation. The case of forthcoming missions to Jupiter and Europa is an extreme example. Moreover, such craft can provide information which in turn increases our understanding of geospace. One initiative is that under Horizon 2020, Europlanet RI will set up a Europlanet Planetary Space Weather Service (PSWS). PSWS will make five entirely new 'toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: - a General planetary space weather toolkit; Mars (in support of the ESA ExoMars missions to be launched

  13. Comparative Science and Space Weather Around the Heliosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grande, Manuel; Andre, Nicolas; COSPAR/ILWS Roadmap Team

    2016-10-01

    Space weather refers to the variable state of the coupled space environment related to changing conditions on the Sun and in the terrestrial atmosphere. The presentation will focus on the critical missing knowledge or observables needed to significantly advance our modelling and forecasting capabilities throughout the solar system putting these in perspective to the recommendations in the recent COSPAR/ILWS roadmap. The COSPAR/ILWS RoadMap focuses on high-priority challenges in key areas of research leading to a better understanding of the space environment and a demonstrable improvement in the provision of timely, reliable information pertinent to effects on civilian space- and ground-based systems, for all stakeholders around the world. The RoadMap prioritizes those advances that can be made on short, intermediate and decadal time scales, identifying gaps and opportunities from a predominantly, but not exclusively, geocentric perspective. While discussion of space weather effects has so far largely been concerned to the near-Earth environment, there are significant present and future applications to the locations beyond, and to other planets. Most obviously, perhaps, are the radiation hazards experienced by astronauts on the way to, and on the surface of, the Moon and Mars. Indeed, the environment experienced by planetary spacecraft in transit and at their destinations is of course critical to their design and successful operation. The case of forthcoming missions to Jupiter and Europa is an extreme example. Moreover, such craft can provide information which in turn increases our understanding of geospace. One initiative is that under Horizon 2020, Europlanet RI will set up a Europlanet Planetary Space Weather Service (PSWS). PSWS will make five entirely new `toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: - a General planetary space weather toolkit; Mars (in support of the ESA ExoMars missions to be launched

  14. A biometeorological procedure for weather forecast to assess the optimal outdoor clothing insulation.

    PubMed

    Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Modesti, Pietro Amedeo; Maracchi, Giampiero; Gensini, Gian Franco; Orlandini, Simone

    2008-09-01

    Clothing insulation represents an important parameter strongly dependent on climate/weather variability and directly involved in the assessment of the human energy balance. Few studies tried to explore the influence of climate changes on the optimal clothing insulation for outdoor spaces. For this reason, the aim of this work was to investigate mainly the optimal outdoor minimum clothing insulation value required to reach the thermal neutrality (min_clo) related to climate change on a seasonal basis. Subsequently, we developed an example of operational biometeorological procedure to provide 72-hour forecast maps concerning the min_clo. Hourly meteorological data were provided by three Italian weather stations located in Turin, Rome and Palermo, for the period 1951-1995. Environmental variables and subjective characteristics referred to an average adult young male at rest and at a very high metabolic rate were used as input variables to calculate the min_clo by using a thermal index based on the human energy balance. Trends of min_clo were assessed by a non-parametric statistical method. Results showed a lower magnitude of trends in a subject at a very high metabolic rate than at rest. Turin always showed a decrease of min_clo during the study period and prevalently negative trends were also observed in Palermo. On the other hand, an opposite situation was observed in Rome, especially during the morning in all seasons. The development of a daily operational procedure to forecast customized min_clo could provide useful information for the outdoor clothing fitting that might help to reduce the weather-related human health risk.

  15. A scale-dependent blending scheme for WRFDA: impact on regional weather forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, H.; Huang, X.-Y.; Xu, D.; Liu, J.

    2014-08-01

    Due to limitation of the domain size and limited observations used in regional data assimilation and forecasting systems, regional forecasts suffer a general deficiency in effectively representing large-scale features such as those in global analyses and forecasts. In this paper, a scale-dependent blending scheme using a low-pass Raymond tangent implicit filter was implemented in the Data Assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRFDA) to reintroduce large-scale weather features from global model analysis into the WRFDA analysis. The impact of the blending method on regional forecasts was assessed by conducting full cycle data assimilation and forecasting experiments for a 2-week-long period in September 2012. It is found that there are obvious large-scale forecast errors in the regional WRFDA system running in full cycle mode without the blending scheme. The scale-dependent blending scheme can efficiently reintroduce the large-scale information from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses, and keep small-scale information from WRF analyses. The blending scheme is shown to reduce analysis and forecasting error of wind, temperature and humidity up to 24 h compared to the full cycle experiments without blending. It is also shown to increase precipitation prediction skills in the first 6 h forecasts.

  16. A scale-dependent blending scheme for WRFDA: impact on regional weather forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, H.; Huang, X.-Y.; Xu, D.; Liu, J.

    2014-04-01

    Due to limitation of the domain size and limited observations used in regional data assimilation and forecasting systems, regional forecasts suffer a general deficiency in effectively representing large-scale features such as those in global analyses and forecasts. In this paper, a scale-dependent blending scheme using a low-pass Raymond tangent implicit filter was implemented in the Data Assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRFDA) to re-introduce large-scale weather features from global model analysis into the WRFDA analysis. The impact of the blending method on regional forecasts was assessed by conducting full cycle data assimilation and forecasting experiments for a two-week long period in September 2012. It is found that there are obvious large-scale forecast errors in the regional WRFDA system running in full cycle mode without the blending scheme. The scale-dependent blending scheme can efficiently re-introduce the large-scale information from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses, and keep small-scale information from WRF analyses. The blending scheme is shown to reduce analysis and forecasting error of wind, temperature and humidity up to 24 h compared to the full cycle experiments without blending. It is also shown to increase precipitation prediction skills in the first 6 h forecasts.

  17. Visualization of 3D ensemble weather forecasts to predict uncertain warm conveyor belt situations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rautenhaus, Marc; Grams, Christian M.; Schäfler, Andreas; Westermann, Rüdiger

    2015-04-01

    We present the application of interactive 3D visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt (WCB) situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns under consideration of uncertainty in the forecast. Based on requirements of the 2012 T-NAWDEX-Falcon campaign, a method based on ensemble Lagrangian particle trajectories has been developed to predict 3D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of WCBs. The method has been integrated into the new open-source 3D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D. The integration facilitates interactive visual exploration of predicted WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts. To judge forecast uncertainty, Met.3D's interactivity enables the user to compute and visualize ensemble statistical quantities on-demand and to navigate the ensemble members. A new visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region assists the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. In this presentation, we focus on a case study that illustrates how we envision the use of 3D ensemble visualization for weather forecasting. The case study revisits a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon and demonstrates the practical application of the proposed uncertainty visualization methods.

  18. Coupling ensemble weather predictions based on TIGGE database with Grid-Xinanjiang model for flood forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bao, H.-J.; Zhao, L.-N.; He, Y.; Li, Z.-J.; Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; Pappenberger, F.; Manful, D.

    2011-02-01

    The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood forecasting system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and lead to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble numerical weather prediction systems through the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Grid-Xinanjiang distributed hydrological model, which is based on the Xinanjiang model theory and the topographical information of each grid cell extracted from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), is coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE database (CMC, CMA, ECWMF, UKMO, NCEP) for flood forecast. This paper presents a case study using the coupled flood forecasting model on the Xixian catchment (a drainage area of 8826 km2) located in Henan province, China. A probabilistic discharge is provided as the end product of flood forecast. Results show that the association of the Grid-Xinanjiang model and the TIGGE database gives a promising tool for an early warning of flood events several days ahead.

  19. Assessment and forecasting of lightning potential and its effect on launch operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and John F. Kennedy Space Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weems, J.; Wyse, N.; Madura, J.; Secrist, M.; Pinder, C.

    1991-01-01

    Lightning plays a pivotal role in the operation decision process for space and ballistic launches at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center. Lightning forecasts are the responsibility of Detachment 11, 4th Weather Wing's Cape Canaveral Forecast Facility. These forecasts are important to daily ground processing as well as launch countdown decisions. The methodology and equipment used to forecast lightning are discussed. Impact on a recent mission is summarized.

  20. The Solar Origins of Severe Space Weather

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, Nat

    2011-01-01

    Solar cycle 23 witnessed an unprecedented array of space- and ground-based instruments observing the violent eruptions from the Sun that had huge impact on the heliosphere. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) contribute to space weather by producing geomagnetic storms and accelerating energetic particles, the two aspects that concern the space weather community. This paper discusses the kinematic and solar-source properties of these CMEs and how they vary with the solar activity cycle with particular emphasis on the following issues. Intense geomagnetic storms are caused by the out-of-the-ecliptic component of the magnetic field in CMEs and/or their sheath. Geoeffective CMEs originate close to the disk center of the Sun. Geoeffective CMEs are more energetic (average speed approx.1000 km/s, mostly halo CMEs or partial halo CMEs). CMEs producing solar energetic particles are the fastest (average speed approx. 1600 km/s) of all CME populations and have very high halo CME fraction. The source location requirement is different for Geoeffective and SEP-producing CMEs because of the different paths taken by CME plasma and energetic particles.

  1. Space weather effects and commerical airlines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, J.; Bentley, R.; Hunter, R.; Taylor, G.; Thomas, D.

    Space Weather (SW) phenomena can effect many areas of commercial airline operations including avionics, communications and GPS navigation systems. Of particular importance at present is the recently introduced EU legislation requiring the monitoring of aircrew radiation exposure, including any variations at aircraft altitudes due to solar activity. The Mullard Space Science Laboratory is collaborating with Virgin Atlantic Airways, the Civil Aviation Authority and the National Physical Laboratory on a 3- year project to monitor the levels of cosmic radiation on long-haul flights. The study will determine whether computer models currently used to predict radiation exposure of aircrew are adequate. It also aims to determine whether solar or geomagnetic activity can cause significant modifications to the doses. This presentation will begin by showing some of the preliminary results obtained so far. As an example, we present a comparison of flight doses measured following the 14t h July 2000 X - class flare that was accompanied by a major Solar Particle Event (SPE). The results highlight the importance of a range of external factors that can strongly influence how SPEs may effect the measured dose at aircraft altitudes. At present, any SPE contributions in the airlines' dose records can only be poorly estimated retrospectively. Ideally, it would be better to try to avoid operating during these possibly significant radiation - enhancing events by utilising SW information (alerts, warnings, etc.). However, doing so poses many difficult operational problems for such a heavily regulated international industry, in terms of safety, security and procedures. Therefore, the use of timely SW information, which is still very unreliable, in a similar manner to terrestrial weather will require agreement from the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and International Air Transport Association (IATA) to Air Traffic Control and Aviation Regulatory Authority's. This

  2. InFlight Weather Forecasts at Your Fingertips

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2003-01-01

    A new information system is delivering real-time weather reports to pilots where they need it the most - inside their aircraft cockpits. Codeveloped by NASA and ViGYAN, Inc., the WSI InFlight(trademark) Cockpit Weather System provides a continuous, satellite-based broadcast of weather information to a portable or panel-mounted display inside the cockpit. With complete coverage and content for the continental United States at any altitude, the system is specifically designed for inflight use.

  3. The RMI Space Weather and Navigation Systems (SWANS) Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warnant, Rene; Lejeune, Sandrine; Wautelet, Gilles; Spits, Justine; Stegen, Koen; Stankov, Stan

    The SWANS (Space Weather and Navigation Systems) research and development project (http://swans.meteo.be) is an initiative of the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) under the auspices of the Belgian Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence (STCE). The RMI SWANS objectives are: research on space weather and its effects on GNSS applications; permanent mon-itoring of the local/regional geomagnetic and ionospheric activity; and development/operation of relevant nowcast, forecast, and alert services to help professional GNSS/GALILEO users in mitigating space weather effects. Several SWANS developments have already been implemented and available for use. The K-LOGIC (Local Operational Geomagnetic Index K Calculation) system is a nowcast system based on a fully automated computer procedure for real-time digital magnetogram data acquisition, data screening, and calculating the local geomagnetic K index. Simultaneously, the planetary Kp index is estimated from solar wind measurements, thus adding to the service reliability and providing forecast capabilities as well. A novel hybrid empirical model, based on these ground-and space-based observations, has been implemented for nowcasting and forecasting the geomagnetic index, issuing also alerts whenever storm-level activity is indicated. A very important feature of the nowcast/forecast system is the strict control on the data input and processing, allowing for an immediate assessment of the output quality. The purpose of the LIEDR (Local Ionospheric Electron Density Reconstruction) system is to acquire and process data from simultaneous ground-based GNSS TEC and digital ionosonde measurements, and subsequently to deduce the vertical electron density distribution. A key module is the real-time estimation of the ionospheric slab thickness, offering additional infor-mation on the local ionospheric dynamics. The RTK (Real Time Kinematic) status mapping provides a quick look at the small-scale ionospheric effects on the RTK

  4. Space-Data Routers: Advanced data routing protocols for enhancing data exploitation for space weather applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Daglis, Ioannis A.; Balasis, George; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Tsaoussidis, Vassilios; Diamantopoulos, Sotirios

    2014-05-01

    Data sharing and access are major issues in space sciences, as they influence the degree of data exploitation. The availability of multi-spacecraft distributed observation methods and adaptive mission architectures require computationally intensive analysis methods. Moreover, accurate space weather forecasting and future space exploration far from Earth will be in need of real-time data distribution and assimilation technologies. The FP7-Space collaborative research project "Space-Data Routers" (SDR) relies on space internetworking and in particular on Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN), which marks the new era in space communications. SDR unifies space and earth communication infrastructures and delivers a set of tools and protocols for space-data exploitation. The main goal is to allow space agencies, academic institutes and research centers to share space-data generated by single or multiple missions, in an efficient, secure and automated manner. Here we are presenting the architecture and basic functionality of a DTN-based application specifically designed in the framework of the SDR project, for data query, retrieval and administration that will enable addressing outstanding science questions related to space weather, through the provision of simultaneous real-time data sampling at multiple points in space. The work leading to this paper has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-SPACE-2010-1) under grant agreement no. 263330 for the SDR (Space-Data Routers for Exploiting Space Data) collaborative research project. This paper reflects only the authors' views and the Union is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

  5. Impact of prescribed diabatic heating on short range weather forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marx, L.; Shukla, J.

    1984-01-01

    Using the 9 layer general circulation model developed at the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS), several 4 to 5 day integrations were made to assess the impact that latent heating processes (supersaturation and moist convective) have on the model forecasts. In an earlier study by Shukla (1981) it was hypothesized that because of strong interaction between dynamics and moist convection, small initial errors grow very fast and make short range forecasting difficult. The purpose of this study was to examine if prescribed heating rates can improve the forecasts for a few days.

  6. COMESEP: a new type of space weather alert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crosby, Norma; Veronig, Astrid; Robbrecht, Eva; Vrsnak, Bojan; Vennerstrom, Susanne; Malandraki, Olga; Dalla, Silvia; Srivastava, Nandita; Hesse, Michael; Odstrcil, Dusan

    2013-04-01

    Tools for forecasting geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms are and have been developed under the three-year EU FP7 COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles) collaborative project. In its final year, the validation and implementation of the produced tools into an operational space weather alert system is now underway. Geomagnetic and SEP radiation storm alerts are being based on the COMESEP definition of risk. The COMESEP alert system will provide notifications for the space weather community. To achieve this the system relies on both models and data, the latter including near real-time data as well as historical data. One of the important outcomes of the scientific analysis has been to identify key ingredients that lead to magnetic storms and SEP events. COMESEP is a unique cross-collaboration effort and bridges the gap between the SEP, coronal mass ejection and terrestrial effects scientific communities. For more information see the project website (http://www.comesep.eu/). This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252).

  7. Space Weather Tools of the Trade - A Changing Mix

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunches, J.; Crowley, G.; Pilinski, M.; Winkler, C.; Fish, C. S.; Hunton, D.; Reynolds, A.; Azeem, I.

    2014-12-01

    Historically, operational space weather tools have focused on the large-scale. The Sun, solar wind, magnetosphere, and ionosphere were the domains that, rightly so, needed the attention of experimentalists and scientists to fashion the best sensors and physics-based models available. These initiatives resulted in significant improvements for operational forecasters. For example, geomagnetic storm predictions now do not have to rely on proxies for CMEs, such as type II sweep, but rather make use of available actual observations of CMEs from which the true velocity vector may be determined. The users of space weather services profited from the better large-scale observations, but now have expressed their desire for even better spatially and time-resolved granularity of products and services. This natural evolution towards refining products has ushered in the era of the smaller mission, the more efficient sensor. CubeSats and compact ionospheric monitors are examples of the instrumental suite now emerging to bring in this new era. This presentation will show examples of the new mix of smaller systems that enable finer, more well-resolved products and services for the operational world. A number of technologies are now in the marketplace demonstrating the value of more observations at a decreasing cost. In addition, new models are looming to take advantage of these better observations. Examples of models poised to take advantage of new observations will be given.

  8. National Weather Service (NWS) Implementation of the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartman, R. K.; Fresch, M. A.; Wells, E.

    2015-12-01

    Operational hydrologic forecasters as well as the communities that they serve have long recognized the value of including uncertainty in hydrologic projections. While single value (deterministic) forecasts are easy to understand and link to specific mitigation actions, the potential for using modern risk management strategies is very limited. This is particularly evident at lead times beyond a few days when forecast skill may be low but the value (and costs) of mitigation actions may be quite high. Based on nearly ten years of research and development, the NWS's National Water Center (NWC, formerly the Office of Hydrologic Development) implemented and evaluated the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS, see Demargne et al. 2014 Brown et al., 2013, Brown et al., 2014a/b/c). The HEFS provides hydrologic forecasts that reflect the total uncertainty, including that contributed by the meteorological forcing and the hydrologic modeling. The HEFS leverages the skill in weather and climate forecasts to produce ensemble forecasts of precipitation, temperature and streamflow at forecast lead times ranging from one hour to one year. The resulting ensembles represent a rich dataset from which a wide variety of risk-based decision support information can be derived. The NWS River Forecast Centers (RFCs) are starting to incorporate the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS,) into their routine operations. In 2012, five (of thirteen) RFCs began running and testing HEFS in an experimental mode. In 2015, HEFS was deployed (including training and software support) to the eight remaining RFCs. Currently, all RFCs are running the HEFS every day in real-time for an increasing number of forecast locations. Eventually, forecasts from the HEFS will be integrated into the warning/hazard services at the NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs). This contribution describes the HEFS framework, the development and deployment strategy, and the operational plans for HEFS going forward.

  9. Reducing probabilistic weather forecasts to the worst-case scenario: anchoring effects.

    PubMed

    Joslyn, Susan; Savelli, Sonia; Nadav-Greenberg, Limor

    2011-12-01

    Many weather forecast providers believe that forecast uncertainty in the form of the worst-case scenario would be useful for general public end users. We tested this suggestion in 4 studies using realistic weather-related decision tasks involving high winds and low temperatures. College undergraduates, given the statistical equivalent of the worst-case scenario (1 boundary of the 80% predictive interval), demonstrated biased understanding of future weather conditions compared with those given both bounds or no uncertainty information. We argue that this was due to an anchoring effect on numeric estimates, which were closer to the worst-case scenario than was warranted and increased linearly as the anchor became more extreme. In many situations tested here, anchoring in numeric estimates also extended to subsequent binary decisions, leading participants with the worst-case scenario to take action more often than did other participants. These results suggest that worst-case scenario forecasts can mislead the user. They appear to convince people that wind speeds will be higher and temperatures will be lower than what are indicated by the forecast. In addition, participants systematically "corrected" the forecast they were given. This effect was most prominent in the condition in which no uncertainty was provided, suggesting that people feel compelled to take uncertainty into account, even when it is not acknowledged by the forecast. Both the anchoring and correction biases were least evident when both bounds were provided, suggesting that balanced uncertainty leads to the best understanding of future weather conditions.

  10. Forecasting irrigation demand by assimilating satellite images and numerical weather predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pelosi, Anna; Medina, Hanoi; Villani, Paolo; Falanga Bolognesi, Salvatore; D'Urso, Guido; Battista Chirico, Giovanni

    2016-04-01

    Forecasting irrigation water demand, with small predictive uncertainty in the short-medium term, is fundamental for an efficient planning of water resource allocation among multiple users and for decreasing water and energy consumptions. In this study we present an innovative system for forecasting irrigation water demand, applicable at different spatial scales: from the farm level to the irrigation district level. The forecast system is centred on a crop growth model assimilating data from satellite images and numerical weather forecasts, according to a stochastic ensemble-based approach. Different sources of uncertainty affecting model predictions are represented by an ensemble of model trajectories, each generated by a possible realization of the model components (model parameters, input weather data and model state variables). The crop growth model is based on a set of simplified analytical relations, with the aim to assess biomass, leaf area index (LAI) growth and evapotranspiration rate with a daily time step. Within the crop growth model, LAI dynamics is let be governed by temperature and leaf dry matter supply, according to the development stage of the crop. The model assimilates LAI data retrieved from VIS-NIR high-resolution multispectral satellite images. Numerical weather model outputs are those from the European limited area ensemble prediction system (COSMO-LEPS), which provides forecasts up to five days with a spatial resolution of seven kilometres. Weather forecasts are sequentially bias corrected based on data from ground weather stations. The forecasting system is evaluated in experimental areas of southern Italy during three irrigation seasons. The performance analysis shows very accurate irrigation water demand forecasts, which make the proposed system a valuable support for water planning and saving at farm level as well as for water management at larger spatial scales.

  11. Space Weather applications with CDPP/AMDA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Génot, V.; Jacquey, C.; Bouchemit, M.; Gangloff, M.; Fedorov, A.; Lavraud, B.; André, N.; Broussillou, L.; Harvey, C.; Pallier, E.; Penou, E.; Budnik, E.; Hitier, R.; Cecconi, B.; Dériot, F.; Heulet, D.; Pinçon, J.-L.

    2010-05-01

    AMDA (Automated Multi-Dataset Analysis), a new data analysis service, recently opened at the French Plasma Physics Data Center (CDPP). AMDA is developed according to the Virtual Observatory paradigm: it is a web-based facility for on-line analyses of space physics. Data may come from its own local database as well as remote ones. This tool allows the user to perform classical manipulations such as data visualization, parameter computation and data extraction. AMDA also offers innovative functionalities such as event searches on the content of the data in either visual or automated ways, generation, use and management of time tables (event lists). The general functionalities of AMDA are presented in the context of Space Weather with example scientific use cases.

  12. Is Space Weather impact different over Africa, and if so why?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yizengaw, E.; Doherty, P. H.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.

    2014-12-01

    With the increasing reliance on technology, the impact of space weather will certainly increase unless suitable protective measures are taken. It is well recognized that many space weather impacts arise from structures and dynamics of the equatorial ionosphere which is one of the most complex region that hosts numerous instabilities and irregularities or plasma bubbles. These irregularities cause information loss in satellite communications, as well as degradation in positioning and navigation signals that are used in aviation and maritime industries. An important question with considerable practical importance is whether ionospheric space weather impacts are the same over the American, African, and Asian longitude sectors, or are they different, and if so why? Satellite observations show ionospheric irregularities in the African continent is more prolific event and occurs more frequently in Africa compared to other longitudinal sectors. However, satellite observations are limited to a certain local time; and thus the needs of operational ground-based instruments, in the region like Africa, are essential to understand the physics behind the longitudinal variability of space weather impacts and improve our global forecasting capabilities which are a major objective of the space science community. Using the recently deployed ground-based multi-instruments (augmented with data from space-based instruments), we will present the temporal and seasonal variability of the space weather impacts over the African continent and provide potential evidences about the possible causes that makes the space weather impact in Africa is unique compared to other longitudinal sectors.

  13. Space Weather and confined CME events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thalmann, Julia; Temmer, Manuela; Veronig, Astrid; Su, Yang

    2016-04-01

    The unusually large NOAA active region (AR) 2192, observed in October and November 2014, was outstanding in its productivity of major flares (GOES class M5 and larger). During the time when the AR faced Earth, major Space Weather events would have been expected. However, none of the X-flares was associated to a coronal mass ejection. Observational evidence for the confinement of the flare are large initial separation of the flare ribbons, together with an almost absent growth in ribbon separation. The low dynamic of the ribbons also suggests a reconnection site high up in the corona. From NLFF modeling we show that the arcade overlying the AR had a predominantly north-south oriented magnetic system, which served as a strong, also lateral, confinement for the flares at the core of the active region. From the magnetic field modeling we derived the decay of the constraining background, and it was found that the overlying field was only slowly decaying with height. We conclude that observational data of the solar surface, especially of flare ribbon dynamics as well as magnetic field models support Space Weather predictions.

  14. Space Weather monitoring with Neutron Monitor measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steigies, C. T.

    2012-12-01

    Space Weather affects many areas of the modern society, advance knowledge about space weather events is important to protect personnel and infrastructure. Cosmic Rays (CR) measurements by ground-based Neutron Monitors are influenced by Coronal Mass Ejections (CME), the intensity of the ever present Cosmic Rays is reduced in a Forbush decrease (Fd). In the case of very energetic CMEs, the measured intensity can be significantly increased in a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE). By detecting the anisotropy of the CR environment, a CME can be detected hours before it arrives at Earth. During a GLE the high-energy particles from the Sun can be detected before the more abundant lower energy particles arrive at Earth, thus allowing to take protective measures. Since the beginning of the Neutron Monitor Database (NMDB) project, which has been started in 2008 with funding from the European Commission, real-time data from Neutron Monitors around the world has been made available through one web-portal. We have more than doubled the number of stations providing data since the start of the project to now over 30 stations. The effectiveness of the ALERT applications which are based on NMDB data has been shown by the recent GLE71. We will present different applications through which the measurements and different data products are accessible.

  15. Forecast-based financing: an approach for catalyzing humanitarian action based on extreme weather and climate forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coughlan de Perez, E.; van den Hurk, B.; van Aalst, M.; Jongman, B.; Klose, T.; Suarez, P.

    2014-05-01

    Disaster risk reduction efforts traditionally focus on long-term preventative measures or post-disaster response. Outside of these, there are many short-term actions, such as evacuation, that can be implemented in the period of time between a warning and a potential disaster to reduce the risk of impacts. However, this precious window of opportunity is regularly overlooked in the case of climate and weather forecasts, which can indicate heightened risk of disaster but are rarely used to initiate preventative action. Barriers range from the protracted debate over the best strategy for intervention to the inherent uncomfortableness on the part of donors to invest in a situation that will "likely" arrive but is not certain. In general, it is unclear what levels of forecast probability and magnitude are "worth" reacting to. Here, we propose a novel forecast-based financing system to automatically trigger action based on climate forecasts or observations. The system matches threshold forecast probabilities with appropriate actions, disburses required funding when threshold forecasts are issued, and develops Standard Operating Procedures that contain the mandate to act when these threshold forecasts are issued. We detail the methods that can be used to establish such a system, and provide illustrations from several pilot cases. Ultimately, such as system can be scaled up in disaster-prone areas worldwide to improve effectiveness at reducing the risk of disaster.

  16. Forecast-based financing: an approach for catalyzing humanitarian action based on extreme weather and climate forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coughlan de Perez, E.; van den Hurk, B.; van Aalst, M. K.; Jongman, B.; Klose, T.; Suarez, P.

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk reduction efforts traditionally focus on long-term preventative measures or post-disaster response. Outside of these, there are many short-term actions, such as evacuation, that can be implemented in the period of time between a warning and a potential disaster to reduce the risk of impacts. However, this precious window of opportunity is regularly overlooked in the case of climate and weather forecasts, which can indicate heightened risk of disaster but are rarely used to initiate preventative action. Barriers range from the protracted debate over the best strategy for intervention to the inherent uncomfortableness on the part of donors to invest in a situation that will likely arise but is not certain. In general, it is unclear what levels of forecast probability and magnitude are "worth" reacting to. Here, we propose a novel forecast-based financing system to automatically trigger action based on climate forecasts or observations. The system matches threshold forecast probabilities with appropriate actions, disburses required funding when threshold forecasts are issued, and develops standard operating procedures that contain the mandate to act when these threshold forecasts are issued. We detail the methods that can be used to establish such a system, and provide illustrations from several pilot cases. Ultimately, such a system can be scaled up in disaster-prone areas worldwide to improve effectiveness at reducing the risk of disaster.

  17. The use of uncertainty forecasts in complex decision tasks and various weather conditions.

    PubMed

    Joslyn, Susan L; Grounds, Margaret A

    2015-12-01

    Recent research on weather-related decision-making suggests that the inclusion of numeric uncertainty estimates in weather forecasts improves decision quality over single value forecasts or specific advice. However, it is unclear if the benefit of uncertainty estimates extends to more complex decision tasks, presumably requiring greater cognitive effort, or to tasks in which the decision is clear-cut, perhaps making the additional uncertainty information unnecessary. In the present research, participants completed a task in which they used single value weather forecasts, either alone, with freeze probabilities, advice, or both, to decide whether to apply salt to roads in winter to prevent icing or to withhold salt and risk a penalty. Participants completed either a simple binary choice version of the task or a complex version with 3 response options and accompanying rules for application. Some participants were shown forecasts near the freezing point, such that the need for salt was ambiguous, whereas other participants were shown forecasts well below the freezing point. Results suggest that participants with uncertainty estimates did better overall, and neither the task complexity nor the coldness of the forecasts reduced that advantage. However, unexpectedly colder forecasts lead to poorer decisions and an advantage for specific advice. PMID:26479974

  18. The use of uncertainty forecasts in complex decision tasks and various weather conditions.

    PubMed

    Joslyn, Susan L; Grounds, Margaret A

    2015-12-01

    Recent research on weather-related decision-making suggests that the inclusion of numeric uncertainty estimates in weather forecasts improves decision quality over single value forecasts or specific advice. However, it is unclear if the benefit of uncertainty estimates extends to more complex decision tasks, presumably requiring greater cognitive effort, or to tasks in which the decision is clear-cut, perhaps making the additional uncertainty information unnecessary. In the present research, participants completed a task in which they used single value weather forecasts, either alone, with freeze probabilities, advice, or both, to decide whether to apply salt to roads in winter to prevent icing or to withhold salt and risk a penalty. Participants completed either a simple binary choice version of the task or a complex version with 3 response options and accompanying rules for application. Some participants were shown forecasts near the freezing point, such that the need for salt was ambiguous, whereas other participants were shown forecasts well below the freezing point. Results suggest that participants with uncertainty estimates did better overall, and neither the task complexity nor the coldness of the forecasts reduced that advantage. However, unexpectedly colder forecasts lead to poorer decisions and an advantage for specific advice.

  19. Oh! I Slipped the Surly Bounds of Earth....and Ran into Space Weather!

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Golightly, Michael J.

    2004-01-01

    Over the past decade the concept of space weather has been introduced and matured in both the scientific community and popular press. Likewise the concept of space climatology recently also is being advanced. Closely linked to these concepts are their impacts on ground- and space-based technological systems; one such system commonly mentioned is manned space flight exemplified by the Space Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS). From a manned space flight perspective, space weather and space climatology have significant effects on the amount of radiation exposure received by humans in space from the ambient high-energy charged particles present in interplanetary space and trapped in the geomagnetosphere. Whereas the impact of space weather for most technological systems is usually discrete and well correlated in time, the principle impact of space weather and space climatology is to increase the probability of latent cancer formation in thetraveler cohort. In this regard, while space weather may be the dominating factor for a given mission, over the life of a long-term program such as the Space Shuttle or ISS space climatology is the controlling factor of latent cancer risk. Human radiation exposure enhancements associated with space weather disturbances has been a concern among scientist and mission controllers since the inception of manned spaceflight nearly forty years ago. This led NASA to develop, in conjunction with the Environmental Science Services Administration s Space Disturbance Forecast Center and the USAF/AWS, the Solar Particle Alert Network (SPAN)-the foundation of an initial U.S. space weather monitoring and forecasting service. Since Apollo, routine space flight operations have evolved to include the use of space weather and climatology data provided through a world-wide network of operational space weather data services to predict and recommend actions to minimize astronaut radiation exposures. NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG

  20. The Role of Model and Initial Condition Error in Numerical Weather Forecasting Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prive, Nikki C.; Errico, Ronald M.

    2013-01-01

    A series of experiments that explore the roles of model and initial condition error in numerical weather prediction are performed using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO). The use of an OSSE allows the analysis and forecast errors to be explicitly calculated, and different hypothetical observing networks can be tested with ease. In these experiments, both a full global OSSE framework and an 'identical twin' OSSE setup are utilized to compare the behavior of the data assimilation system and evolution of forecast skill with and without model error. The initial condition error is manipulated by varying the distribution and quality of the observing network and the magnitude of observation errors. The results show that model error has a strong impact on both the quality of the analysis field and the evolution of forecast skill, including both systematic and unsystematic model error components. With a realistic observing network, the analysis state retains a significant quantity of error due to systematic model error. If errors of the analysis state are minimized, model error acts to rapidly degrade forecast skill during the first 24-48 hours of forward integration. In the presence of model error, the impact of observation errors on forecast skill is small, but in the absence of model error, observation errors cause a substantial degradation of the skill of medium range forecasts.

  1. Integration Of Space Weather Into Space Situational Awareness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reeves, G.

    2010-09-01

    Rapid assessment of space weather effects on satellites is a critical step in anomaly resolution and satellite threat assessment. That step, however, is often hindered by a number of factors including timely collection and delivery of space weather data and the inherent complexity of space weather information. As part of a larger, integrated space situational awareness program, Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed prototype operational space weather tools that run in real time and present operators with customized, user-specific information. The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) focuses on the penetrating radiation environment from natural or nuclear-produced radiation belts. The penetrating radiation environment is highly dynamic and highly orbitdependent. Operators often must rely only on line plots of 2 MeV electron flux from the NOAA geosynchronous GOES satellites which is then assumed to be representative of the environment at the satellite of interest. DREAM uses data assimilation to produce a global, real-time, energy dependent specification. User tools are built around a distributed service oriented architecture (SOA) which allows operators to select any satellite from the space catalog and examine the environment for that specific satellite and time of interest. Depending on the application operators may need to examine instantaneous dose rates and/or dose accumulated over various lengths of time. Further, different energy thresholds can be selected depending on the shielding on the satellite or instrument of interest. In order to rapidly assess the probability that space weather effects, the current conditions can be compared against the historical distribution of radiation levels for that orbit. In the simplest operation a user would select a satellite and time of interest and immediately see if the environmental conditions were typical, elevated, or extreme based on how often those conditions occur in that orbit. This

  2. Integration of space weather into space situational awareness

    SciTech Connect

    Reeves, Geoffrey D

    2010-11-09

    Rapid assessment of space weather effects on satellites is a critical step in anomaly resolution and satellite threat assessment. That step, however, is often hindered by a number of factors including timely collection and delivery of space weather data and the inherent com plexity of space weather information. As part of a larger, integrated space situational awareness program, Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed prototype operational space weather tools that run in real time and present operators with customized, user-specific information. The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) focuses on the penetrating radiation environment from natural or nuclear-produced radiation belts. The penetrating radiation environment is highly dynamic and highly orbit-dependent. Operators often must rely only on line plots of 2 MeV electron flux from the NOAA geosynchronous GOES satellites which is then assumed to be representative of the environment at the satellite of interest. DREAM uses data assimilation to produce a global, real-time, energy dependent specification. User tools are built around a distributed service oriented architecture (SOA) which will allow operators to select any satellite from the space catalog and examine the environment for that specific satellite and time of interest. Depending on the application operators may need to examine instantaneous dose rates and/or dose accumulated over various lengths of time. Further, different energy thresholds can be selected depending on the shielding on the satellite or instrument of interest. In order to rapidly assess the probability that space weather was the cause of anomalous operations, the current conditions can be compared against the historical distribution of radiation levels for that orbit. In the simplest operation a user would select a satellite and time of interest and immediately see if the environmental conditions were typical, elevated, or extreme based on how often those

  3. Improving stream temperature model predictions using high-resolution satellite-derived numerical weather forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pike, A.; Danner, E.; Lindley, S.; Melton, F. S.; Nemani, R. R.; Hashimoto, H.; Rajagopalan, B.; Caldwell, R. J.

    2009-12-01

    In the Central Valley of California, stream temperature is a critical indicator of habitat quality for endangered salmonid species and affects re-licensing of major water projects and dam operations worth billions of dollars. However, many water resource-related decisions in regulated rivers rely upon models using a daily-to-monthly mean temperature standard. Furthermore, current water temperature models are limited by the lack of spatially detailed meteorological forecasts. To address this issue, we utilize the coupled TOPS-WRF (Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System - Weather Research and Forecasting) framework—a high-resolution (15min, 1km) assimilation of satellite-derived meteorological observations and numerical weather forecasts— to improve the spatial and temporal resolution of stream temperature predictions. In this study, we developed a high-resolution mechanistic 1-dimensional stream temperature model (sub-hourly time step, sub-kilometer spatial resolution) for the Upper Sacramento River in northern California. The model uses a heat budget approach to calculate the rate of heat transfer to/from the river. Inputs for the heat budget formulation are atmospheric variables provided by the TOPS-WRF model. The hydrodynamics of the river (flow velocity and channel geometry) are characterized using densely-spaced channel cross-sections and flow data. Water temperatures are calculated by considering the hydrologic and thermal characteristics of the river and solving the advection-diffusion equation in a mixed Eulerian-Lagrangian framework. Modeled hindcasted temperatures for a test period (May - November 2008) substantially improve upon the existing daily-to-monthly mean temperature standards. Modeled values closely approximate both the magnitude and the phase of measured water temperatures. Furthermore, our model results reveal important longitudinal patterns in diel temperature variation that are unique to regulated rivers, and may be critical to

  4. Space Weather, Geomagnetic Disturbances and Impact on the High-Voltage Transmission Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pullkkinen, A.

    2011-01-01

    Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) affecting the performance of high-voltage power transmission systems are one of the most significant hazards space weather poses on the operability of critical US infrastructure. The severity of the threat was emphasized, for example, in two recent reports: the National Research Council (NRC) report "Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report" and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) report "HighImpact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System." The NRC and NERC reports demonstrated the important national security dimension of space weather and GIC and called for comprehensive actions to forecast and mitigate the hazard. In this paper we will give a brief overview of space weather storms and accompanying geomagnetic storm events that lead to GIC. We will also review the fundamental principles of how GIC can impact the power transmission systems. Space weather has been a subject of great scientific advances that have changed the wonder of the past to a quantitative field of physics with true predictive power of today. NASA's Solar Shield system aimed at forecasting of GIC in the North American high-voltage power transmission system can be considered as one of the ultimate fruits of those advances. We will review the fundamental principles of the Solar Shield system and provide our view of the way forward in the science of GIC.

  5. SEASAT economic assessment. Volume 9: Ports and harbors case study and generalization. [economic benefits of SEASAT satellites to harbors and shipping industries through improved weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1975-01-01

    This case study and generalization quantify benefits made possible through improved weather forecasting resulting from the integration of SEASAT data into local weather forecasts. The major source of avoidable economic losses to shipping from inadequate weather forecasting data is shown to be dependent on local precipitation forecasting. The ports of Philadelphia and Boston were selected for study.

  6. Sensitivity of Short-Term Weather Forecasts to Assimilated AIRS Data: Implications for NPOESS Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zavodsky, Bradley; McCarty, Will; Chou, Shih-Hung; Jedlovec, Gary

    2009-01-01

    The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is acting as a heritage and risk reduction instrument for the Cross-track lnfrared Sounder (CrIS) to be flown aboard the NPP and NPOESS satellites. The hyperspectral nature of AIRS and CrIS provides high-quality soundings that, along with their asynoptic observation time over North America, make them attractive sources to fill the spatial and temporal data voids in upper air temperature and moisture measurements for use in data assimilation and numerical weather prediction. Observations from AlRS can be assimilated either as direct radiances or retrieved thermodynamic profiles, and the Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center has used both data types to improve short-term (0-48h), regional forecasts. The purpose of this paper is to share SPORT'S experiences using AlRS radiances and retrieved profiles in regional data assimilation activities by showing that proper handling of issues-including cloud contamination and land emissivity characterization-are necessary to produce optimal analyses and forecasts.

  7. Cloud based N-dimensional weather forecast visualization tool with image analysis capabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laka-Iñurrategi, M.; Alberdi, I.; Alonso, K.; Quartulli, M.

    2013-10-01

    Until recently the majority of data analysis and visualization tools were desktop applications that demanded high requirement hardware to carry out those processes. However, nowadays there is a trend to evolve this kind of applications to service based solutions that can be accessed remotely. Considering the implications that the weather has in the health and the safety of the human beings, authorities require a further knowledge of the weather forecasts and their impacts but they have difficulties to properly understand the raw forecasts since they usually are not experts in the field of meteorology. For this purpose, we have designed and implemented a framework that permits a remote access to weather forecasts. With this tool, the practitioners can access, visualise and interact with the data from a web browser. Furthermore, it contains an image and numeric analysis module that permits the generation of new information what is helpful in decision making processes.

  8. Weather forecasts, users' economic expenses and decision strategies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carter, G. M.

    1972-01-01

    Differing decision models and operational characteristics affecting the economic expenses (i.e., the costs of protection and losses suffered if no protective measures have been taken) associated with the use of predictive weather information have been examined.

  9. Successfully Transitioning Science Research to Space Weather Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spann, James

    2012-01-01

    The awareness of potentially significant impacts of space weather on spaceand ground ]based technological systems has generated a strong desire in many sectors of government and industry to effectively transform knowledge and understanding of the variable space environment into useful tools and applications for use by those entities responsible for systems that may be vulnerable to space weather impacts. Essentially, effectively transitioning science knowledge to useful applications relevant to space weather has become important. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective, and how in the current environment those can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

  10. Space Weather Status for Exploration Radiation Protection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fry, Dan J.; Lee, Kerry; Zapp, Neal; Barzilla, Janet; Dunegan, Audrey; Johnson, Steve; Stoffle, Nicholas

    2011-01-01

    Management of crew exposure to radiation is a major concern for manned spaceflight and will be even more important for the modern concept of longer-duration exploration. The inherent protection afforded to astronauts by the magnetic field of the Earth in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) makes operations on the space shuttle or space station very different from operations during an exploration mission. In order to experience significant radiation-derived Loss of Mission (LOM) or Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for LEO operations, one is almost driven to dictate extreme duration or to dictate an extreme sequence of solar activity. Outside of the geo-magnetosphere, however, this scenario changes dramatically. Exposures to the same event on the ISS and in free space, for example, may differ by orders of magnitude. This change in magnitude, coupled with the logistical constraints present in implementing any practical operational mitigation make situational awareness with regard to space weather a limiting factor for the ability to conduct exploration operations. We present a current status of developing operational concepts for manned exploration and expectations for asset viability and available predictive and characterization toolsets.

  11. Application of the NASA A-Train to Evaluate Clouds Simulated by the Weather Research and Forecast Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molthan, Andrew L.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Lapenta, William M.

    2008-01-01

    The CloudSat Mission, part of the NASA A-Train, is providing the first global survey of cloud profiles and cloud physical properties, observing seasonal and geographical variations that are pertinent to evaluating the way clouds are parameterized in weather and climate forecast models. CloudSat measures the vertical structure of clouds and precipitation from space through the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR), a 94 GHz nadir-looking radar measuring the power backscattered by clouds as a function of distance from the radar. One of the goals of the CloudSat mission is to evaluate the representation of clouds in forecast models, thereby contributing to improved predictions of weather, climate and the cloud-climate feedback problem. This paper highlights potential limitations in cloud microphysical schemes currently employed in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) modeling system. The horizontal and vertical structure of explicitly simulated cloud fields produced by the WRF model at 4-km resolution are being evaluated using CloudSat observations in concert with products derived from MODIS and AIRS. A radiative transfer model is used to produce simulated profiles of radar reflectivity given WRF input profiles of hydrometeor mixing ratios and ambient atmospheric conditions. The preliminary results presented in the paper will compare simulated and observed reflectivity fields corresponding to horizontal and vertical cloud structures associated with midlatitude cyclone events.

  12. Growing Diversity in Space Weather and Climate Change Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, L. P.; Ng, C.; Marchese, P.; Austin, S.; Frost, J.; Cheung, T. D.; Robbins, I.; Carlson, B. E.; Steiner, J. C.; Tremberger, G.; Paglione, T.; Damas, C.; Howard, A.; Scalzo, F.

    2013-12-01

    Space Weather and Global Climate Impacts are critical items on the present national and international science agendas. Understanding and forecasting solar activity is increasingly important for manned space flight, unmanned missions (including communications satellites, satellites that monitor the space and earth environment), and regional power grids. The ability to predict the effects of forcings and feedback mechanisms on global and local climate is critical to survival of the inhabitants of planet Earth. It is therefore important to motivate students to continue their studies via advanced degrees and pursue careers related to these areas. This CUNY-based initiative, supported by NASA and NSF, provided undergraduate research experience for more than 70 students in topics ranging from urban impacts of global climate change to magnetic rope structure, solar flares and CMEs. Other research topics included investigations of the ionosphere using a CubeSat, stratospheric aerosols in Jupiter's atmosphere, and ocean climate modeling. Mentors for the primarily summer research experiences included CUNY faculty, GISS and GSFC scientists. Students were recruited from CUNY colleges as well as other colleges including Spelman, Cornell, Rutgers and SUNY colleges. Fifty-eight percent of the undergraduate students were under-represented minorities and thirty-four percent were female. Many of the research teams included high school teachers and students as well as graduate students. Supporting workshops for students included data analysis and visualization tools, space weather, planetary energy balance and BalloonSats. The project is supported by NASA awards NNX10AE72G and NNX09AL77G, and NSF REU Site award 0851932.

  13. Space Weather Research at the National Science Foundation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moretto, T.

    2015-12-01

    There is growing recognition that the space environment can have substantial, deleterious, impacts on society. Consequently, research enabling specification and forecasting of hazardous space effects has become of great importance and urgency. This research requires studying the entire Sun-Earth system to understand the coupling of regions all the way from the source of disturbances in the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The traditional, region-based structure of research programs in Solar and Space physics is ill suited to fully support the change in research directions that the problem of space weather dictates. On the observational side, dense, distributed networks of observations are required to capture the full large-scale dynamics of the space environment. However, the cost of implementing these is typically prohibitive, especially for measurements in space. Thus, by necessity, the implementation of such new capabilities needs to build on creative and unconventional solutions. A particularly powerful idea is the utilization of new developments in data engineering and informatics research (big data). These new technologies make it possible to build systems that can collect and process huge amounts of noisy and inaccurate data and extract from them useful information. The shift in emphasis towards system level science for geospace also necessitates the development of large-scale and multi-scale models. The development of large-scale models capable of capturing the global dynamics of the Earth's space environment requires investment in research team efforts that go beyond what can typically be funded under the traditional grants programs. This calls for effective interdisciplinary collaboration and efficient leveraging of resources both nationally and internationally. This presentation will provide an overview of current and planned initiatives, programs, and activities at the National Science Foundation pertaining to space weathe research.

  14. The Application of Synoptic Weather Forecasting Rules to Selected Weather Situations in the United States.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kohler, Fred E.

    The document describes the use of weather maps and data in teaching introductory college courses in synoptic meteorology. Students examine weather changes at three-hour intervals from data obtained from the "Monthly Summary of Local Climatological Data." Weather variables in the local summary include sky cover, air temperature, dew point, relative…

  15. Space Weathering of Leonid Shower Meteoroids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jenniskens, P.

    2002-12-01

    When comets are exposed to solar radiation, they emit dust particles that rapidly disperse in the interplanetary medium. There, they experience weathering due to heating and cooling cycles, solar wind implantation, and collisions. The result is to facilitate breakup of the grains, make the remaining units more (or less) cohesive, and change the volatile element contribution (sodium containing minerals and organics). The breakup of grains is evident in the presence of meteor clusters during meteor showers. Spectacular examples have recently been detected during Leonid storms. These are particularly interesting for understanding space weathering of solid surfaces, because the epoch of ejection of the grains and the duration of exposure to the interplanetary medium is known. All are from very recent returns of the parent comet to perihelion. In addition, the sputtering of meteoroids by air molecules during entry in the Earth's atmosphere may be a usefull analog in understanding the source of the sodium atmosphere of the Moon and Mercury. In certain conditions, an early release of sodium is observed. Results from NASA's Leonid Multi-Instrument Aircraft Campaign (Leonid MAC) and ground based Leonid storm observations will be discussed in this context. First results from the recent November 2002 Leonid MAC mission will be shown.

  16. Predictability of summertime Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in medium-range forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsueda, Mio; Palmer, Tim

    2015-04-01

    A weather regime is a persistent and/or recurrent large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern which is associated with specific weather conditions on a regional scale (e.g. zonal flow, atmospheric blocking, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern). Accurate simulations of weather regimes are important in weather and climate. The predictability of Euro-Atlantic weather regimes at medium-range timescales (up to 384hr) are investigated for summer (June-August) in the periods 2007-2013 and 1985-2013 using the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) and NOAA's second-generation global medium-range ensemble reforecast datasets, respectively. The TIGGE portals quasi-operationally provide 9 medium-range ensemble forecasts routinely operated at Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centres. We focus on five of the leading operational NWP centres: CMC (Canadian Meteorological Center), ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, UK), JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency), NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, USA), and UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office). The NOAA's reforecast data has been produced with a fixed numerical model, using the 2012 version of NCEP's Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS), whereas the TIGGE data has been produced with a various versions of operational numerical model. The positive and negative phases of the NAO (NAO+ and NAO-), Atlantic ridge (ATLR), and Atlantic low (ATLL) are detected as summertime weather regimes over the Euro-Atlantic region from the ERA-Interim data. The summer NAO+ can be considered as blocking (BLCK). The NWP models have common biases in the frequency of regime transitions, and therefore the models prefer BLCK and ATLR to NAO- and ATLL with lead time. The models show small skill differences regarding deterministic and probabilistic regime forecasts, suggesting that the skills of regime forecasts strongly depend on atmospheric flows. The

  17. MAGDAS Project at SERC for Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yumoto, Kiyohumi

    The Space Environment Research Center (SERC), Kyushu University has deployed the MAG-netic Data Acqusition System (MAGDAS) at 50 stations along the 210-and 96-degree mag-netic meridians (MM) and the magnetic Dip equator, and three FM-CW radars along the 210-degree MM during the International Heliophysical Year (IHY) period of 2005-2009 (see http://magdas.serc.kyushu-u.ac.jp/ and http://magdas2.serc.kyushu-u.ac.jp/). The goal of MAGDAS project is to become the most comprehensive ground-based monitoring system of the earth's magnetic field. It does not compete with space-based observation. Rather, this ground-based network complements observation from space. To properly study solar-terrestrial events, data from both are required. This project intends to get the MAGDAS network fully operational and provide data for studies on space weather. By analyzing these new MAGDAS data, we can perform a real-time monitoring and modeling of the global (e.g. Sq, EEJ) current system and the ambient plasma mass density for understanding the electromagnetic and plasma environment changes in geospace during helio-magnetospheric storms. In order to examine the propagation mechanisms of transient disturbances, i.e., sc/si, Pi 2, and DP2, relations of iono-spheric electric and magnetic fields are investigated by analyzing the MAGDAS magnetic data and the Doppler data of our FM-CW ionospheric radar. A new EE-index (EDst, EU, and EL) was also proposed by SERC for real-time and long-term geo-space monitoring. The basic algorithm to obtain EE-index was constructed by Uozumi et al. (2008). EU and EL mainly represent the range of the EEJ (equatorial electrojet) and CEJ (equatorial counter electrojet) components, respectively. The baseline levels of EU and EL are obtained by averaging the H-component magnetic variations observed at the nightside (LT = 18-06) MAGDAS/CPMN (Circum-pan Pacific Magnetometer Network) stations along the magnetic equator. The base-line value is defined as EDst and its

  18. Current problems in communication from the weather forecast in the prevention of hydraulic and hydrogeological risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fazzini, Massimiliano; Vaccaro, Carmela

    2014-05-01

    The Italian territory is one of the most fragile hydraulic and hydro geologic of the world, due to its complexity physiographic, lithological and above meteo-climatic too. Moreover, In recent years, the unhappy urbanization, the abandonment of mountain areas and countryside have fostered hydro geological instability, ever more devastating, in relation to the extremes of meteorological events. After the dramatic floods and landscapes of the last 24 months - in which more than 50 people died - it is actually open a public debate on the issues related to prevention, forecasting and management of hydro-meteorological risk. Aim of the correct weather forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales is to avoid or minimize the potential occurrence of damage or human losses resulting from the increasingly of frequent extreme weather events. In Italy, there are two major complex problems that do not allow for effective dissemination of the correct weather forecasting. First, the absence of a national meteorological service - which can ensure the quality of information. In this regard, it is at an advanced stage the establishment of a unified national weather service - formed by technicians to national and regional civil protection and the Meteorological Service of the Air Force, which will ensure the quality of the prediction, especially through exclusive processing of national and local weather forecasting and hydro geological weather alert. At present, however, this lack favors the increasing diffusion of meteorological sites more or less professional - often totally not "ethical" - which, at different spatial scales, tend to amplify the signals from the weather prediction models, describing them the users of the web such as exceptional or rare phenomena and often causing unjustified alarmism. This behavior is almost always aimed at the desire of give a forecast before other sites and therefore looking for new commercial sponsors, with easy profits. On the other hand

  19. Cosmic Ray Observatories for Space Weather Studies.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González, Xavier

    2016-07-01

    The Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX) was created in October 2014. Some observatories measure data for the service at different frequencies and particles. Two cosmic ray observatories detect the particle variations attributed to solar emissions, and are an important source of information for the SCiESMEX. The Mexico City Cosmic Ray Observatory consists of a neutron monitor (6-NM-64) and a muon telescope, that detect the hadronic and hard component of the secondary cosmic rays in the atmosphere. It has been in continous operation since 1990. The Sierra Negra Cosmic Ray Observatory consists of a solar neutron telescope and the scintillator cosmic ray telescope. These telescopes can detect the neutrons, generated in solar flares and the hadronic and hard components of the secondary cosmic rays. It has been in continous operation since 2004. We present the two observatories and the capability to detect variations in the cosmic rays, generated by the emissions of the solar activity.

  20. Space Weather Effects on Aircraft Navigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stanley, J. C.; Cade, W. B.

    2012-12-01

    Many aircraft today use satellites for GPS navigation, arrival and departure to and from airspaces, and for "shooting" non-precision and precision Instrument Approaches into airports. Also in development is an Air Traffic Control system based on satellite technology that seeks to modernize current air traffic control and improve safety, eventually phasing out radar (though not yet in the very near future). Due to the general, commercial, and military aviation fields all becoming more and more reliant on satellite and GPS technologies, the effects of space weather events on these systems is of paramount concern to militaries, airlines, private pilots, and other aviation operators. In this study we analyze data from airlines and other resources regarding effects on satellite and GPS systems, which is crucial to the conduct of safe flight operations now and improving systems for future and continued use.

  1. Services available at the Brazilian Study and Monitoring of Space Weather (Embrace) Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dal Lago, A.; Cecatto, J. R.; Costa, J. E. R.; Da Silva, L. A.; Rockenbach, M.; Braga, C. R.; Mendonca, R. R. S.; Mendes, O., Jr.; Koga, D.; Alves, L. R.; Becker-Guedes, F.; Wrasse, C. M.; Takahashi, H.; Banik de Padua, M.; De Nardin, C. M.

    2015-12-01

    Since 2008, Brazilian government has been supporting a Space Weather Program at the National Institute for Space Research (INPE). The main objective of the "Brazilian Study and Monitoring of Space Weather (Embrace) Program" is to proceed with data collection and maintenance of Space Weather observation, modeling processes of the Sun-Earth on a global and regional scale, provide information in real time and make Space Weather forecast, and provide diagnostics of their effects on different technology systems through the collection of satellite data, surface and computational modeling. Advantage was taken on the long lasting expertise of the local scientific community, specially regarding local phenomena, such as the equatorial ionosphere and effects of the South American Magnetic Anomaly. Since April 2012, weekly briefings are held where scientists discuss and evaluate in a comprehensive manner all the chains of events from the sun, interplanetary space, earth magnetosphere, radiation belts, ionosphere, upper atmosphere, and reaching the effects on ground. One unique aspect of Embrace program is the strong emphasis on ionospheric and upper atmospheric disturbances. Recently, strong focus on radiation belt variability is progressively been included. Another important particularity of this program is the use of cosmic ray observations to develop nowcasting and forecasting of solar wind structures. In this work, we present an overview of activities and contributions related to the EMBRACE Program.

  2. Numerical Weather Forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect

    Buckley, R.L.

    1999-01-26

    Facilities such as the Savannah River Site (SRS), which contain the potential for hazardous atmospheric releases, rely on the predictive capabilities of dispersion models to assess possible emergency response actions. The operational design in relation to domain size and forecast time is presented, along with verification of model results over extended time periods with archived surface observations.

  3. Correction to "Space weather gets real—on smartphones"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobiska, W. Kent; Crowley, Geoff; Oh, Seung Jun; Guhathakurta, Madhulika

    2011-02-01

    A URL was given incorrectly in the article "Space weather gets real—on smartphones" (Tobiska, W. K., G. Crowley, S. J. Oh, and M. Guhathakurta, Space Weather, 8, S10006, doi:10.1029/2010SW000619). In the penultimate paragraph of the "Developing Smartphone Apps" section, the correct URL for the integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA) is http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov.

  4. Government and Public Awareness of Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lanzerotti, Louis J.

    2011-07-01

    Solar cycle 24 continues to provide confusion in its start and its unsteady rise toward an uncertain maximum. Nevertheless, many entities, including the popular press and influential government agencies, are becoming more aware of the effects of the Sun and the near-Earth space environment on essential modern-day technologies. Within the past 6 months, news articles in the printed and digital press have included such headlines as "Solar storm delivers glancing blow to Earth—and a warning" (Christian Science Monitor, 9 June 2011), "Magnetic north pole shifts, forces runway closures at Florida airport" (http://FoxNews.com, 6 January 2011), "Major solar flare erupts, may make auroras visible in northern U.S." (SPACE.com, 10 March 2011, but picked up by FoxNews.com and Yahoo News), and "As the sun awakens, the power grid stands vulnerable" (Washington Post, 20 June 2011). All such news stories for the general public are a welcome recognition that weather in space can have important implications for human activities, including the performance—and even survivability—of some technologies.

  5. Space Weather monitoring with Neutron Monitor measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papaioannou, Athanasios; Mavromichalaki, Helen; Steigies, Christian T.

    2013-04-01

    Space Weather affects many areas of the modern society, advance knowledge about space weather events is important to protect personnel and infrastructure. Cosmic ray (CR) intensity measurements are routinely provided by the ground based Neutron Monitors. These measurements are influenced by the passage of the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections resulting into a significant reduction in the recorded intensity known as Forbush decreases. Furthermore, upon the release of high-energy particles at the Sun during a solar flare or a very energetic coronal mass ejection, the measured intensity can be significantly increased resulting into Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs). By detecting the anisotropy of the CR environment, a CME can be detected hours before it arrives at Earth. During a GLE the high-energy particles from the Sun can be detected before the more abundant lower energy particles arrive at Earth, thus allowing to take protective measures. Since the beginning of the Neutron Monitor Database (NMDB) project, which has been started in 2008 with funding from the European Commission, real-time data from Neutron Monitors around the world has been made available through one web-portal. We have more than doubled the number of stations providing data since the start of the project to now over 30 stations. The effectiveness of the GLE Alert Service application which is based on NMDB data has been validated in real-time by the recent GLE71 on 17 May 2012. We will present different applications through which the measurements and different data products are accessible.

  6. Weather sensitive short-term load forecasting using nonfully connected artificial neural network

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, S.T.; Yu, D.C.; Moghaddamjo, A.R. )

    1992-08-01

    This paper presents an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for forecasting weather sensitive loads. The proposed model is capable of forecasting the hourly loads for an entire week. The model is not fully connected; hence, it has a shorter training time than the fully-connected ANN. The proposed model can differentiate between the weekday loads and the weekend loads. The results indicate that this model can achieve greater forecasting accuracy than the traditional statistical model. This ANN model has been implemented on real load data. The average percentage peak error for the test cases is 1.12%.

  7. Recent examples of mesoscale numerical forecasts of severe weather events along the east coast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kocin, P. J.; Uccellini, L. W.; Zack, J. W.; Kaplan, M. L.

    1984-01-01

    Mesoscale numerical forecasts utilizing the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) are documented for two East Coast severe weather events. The two events are the thunderstorm and heavy snow bursts in the Washington, D.C. - Baltimore, MD region on 8 March 1984 and the devastating tornado outbreak across North and South Carolina on 28 March 1984. The forecasts are presented to demonstrate the ability of the model to simulate dynamical interactions and diabatic processes and to note some of the problems encountered when using mesoscale models for day-to-day forecasting.

  8. Norway and Cuba Continue Collaborating to Build Capacity to Improve Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antuña, Juan Carlos; Kalnay, Eugenia; Mesquita, Michel D. S.

    2014-06-01

    The Future of Climate Extremes in the Caribbean Extreme Cuban Climate (XCUBE) project, which is funded by the Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection as part of an assignment for the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to support scientific cooperation between Norway and Cuba, carried out a training workshop on seasonal forecasting, reanalysis data, and weather research and forecasting (WRF). The workshop was a follow-up to the XCUBE workshop conducted in Havana in 2013 and provided Cuban scientists with access to expertise on seasonal forecasting, the WRF model developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the community, data assimilation, and reanalysis.

  9. Satellite contributions to convective scale weather analysis and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Purdom, James F. W.

    1986-01-01

    Severe weather phenomena which are amenable to remote sensing by satellite instruments and having resolution fine enough to discern mesoscale features are described. GOES satellites acquire imagery with 1 km resolution in the visible band and 8 km at IR wavelengths. Animation of the images allows tracking the evolution and motions of clouds, which are the prime indicators of convective activity. Sample satellite imagery of sea, lake and river breezes which reveal differential heating processes, the effect of early morning cloud cover, thunderstorm outflow processes, and mesoscale convective systems are provided. Techniques for analyzing the satellite data to predict the onset of severe weather are discussed.

  10. Use of medium-range numerical weather prediction model output to produce forecasts of streamflow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, M.P.; Hay, L.E.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines an archive containing over 40 years of 8-day atmospheric forecasts over the contiguous United States from the NCEP reanalysis project to assess the possibilities for using medium-range numerical weather prediction model output for predictions of streamflow. This analysis shows the biases in the NCEP forecasts to be quite extreme. In many regions, systematic precipitation biases exceed 100% of the mean, with temperature biases exceeding 3??C. In some locations, biases are even higher. The accuracy of NCEP precipitation and 2-m maximum temperature forecasts is computed by interpolating the NCEP model output for each forecast day to the location of each station in the NWS cooperative network and computing the correlation with station observations. Results show that the accuracy of the NCEP forecasts is rather low in many areas of the country. Most apparent is the generally low skill in precipitation forecasts (particularly in July) and low skill in temperature forecasts in the western United States, the eastern seaboard, and the southern tier of states. These results outline a clear need for additional processing of the NCEP Medium-Range Forecast Model (MRF) output before it is used for hydrologic predictions. Techniques of model output statistics (MOS) are used in this paper to downscale the NCEP forecasts to station locations. Forecasted atmospheric variables (e.g., total column precipitable water, 2-m air temperature) are used as predictors in a forward screening multiple linear regression model to improve forecasts of precipitation and temperature for stations in the National Weather Service cooperative network. This procedure effectively removes all systematic biases in the raw NCEP precipitation and temperature forecasts. MOS guidance also results in substantial improvements in the accuracy of maximum and minimum temperature forecasts throughout the country. For precipitation, forecast improvements were less impressive. MOS guidance increases

  11. Initial weather regimes as predictors of numerical 30-day mean forecast accuracy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colucci, Stephen J.; Baumhefner, David P.

    1992-01-01

    Thirty 30-day mean 500-mb-height anomaly forecasts generated by the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM) for the year 1978 are examined in order to determine if the forecast accuracy can be estimated with the initial conditions. The initial weather regimes were defined in such a way that the regimes could discriminate between the best and the worst 30-day mean forecasts run from the initial fields in this data set. On the basis of the CCM experiments, it is suggested that the accuracy of numerical 30-day mean forecasts may depend upon the accuracy with which the cyclones and their interactions with the planetary scale are predicted early in the forecast cycle, and that this accuracy may depend upon the initial conditions.

  12. Improving Atmospheric Corrections to InSAR Path Delays Using Operational Weather Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fishbein, E.; Fielding, E. J.; Moore, A. W.; von Allmen, P. A.; Xing, Z.; Li, Z.; Pan, L.

    2010-12-01

    Using InSAR to measure surface displacements immediately following earthquakes is difficult. Tropospheric radar propagation delays can be a large source of error, especially for moderate-sized events at low altitudes and latitudes, and it cannot be reduced by averaging several overpasses. We evaluate tropospheric delays from several operational global and regional weather forecast models and compare these with delays from fixed GPS receivers and Envisat’s InSAR. Although dry airmass (surface pressure) and liquid water burden both contribute to the delay, water vapor burden dominates the delay. Accurate representations of near surface atmospheric water vapor are the single most important criteria for using one weather model over another. Several weather model characteristics are key for good estimates of atmospheric water vapor distribution. One is modeling of water vapor transport, which is improved by increased spatial resolution and topography. A second aspect is accurate inputs of water vapor sources and sinks. These will improve with better assimilations of satellite and in situ observations in weather forecast models. We present an estimate of the model-dependent error by deriving delays from several weather models, using identical processing algorithms. In this study we use products from the 0.125° ECMWF global deterministic forecast, the 1° NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) and the 12km NCEP North America Mesoscale (NAM) model. Additionally, delays from weather forecasts must be interpolated to the higher spatial resolution of InSAR imagery. We have evaluated delays using simple interpolation and contour-following adjustments and have compare these to the GFS observations sorted by distance from the model grid points and amount of elevation correction. We are developing Online Services for Correcting Atmosphere in Radar (OSCAR), which should aid rapid use of InSAR measurements. These analyses will be used to optimize the correction algorithms within

  13. Probabilistic forecasting of extreme weather events based on extreme value theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van De Vyver, Hans; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert

    2016-04-01

    Extreme events in weather and climate such as high wind gusts, heavy precipitation or extreme temperatures are commonly associated with high impacts on both environment and society. Forecasting extreme weather events is difficult, and very high-resolution models are needed to describe explicitly extreme weather phenomena. A prediction system for such events should therefore preferably be probabilistic in nature. Probabilistic forecasts and state estimations are nowadays common in the numerical weather prediction community. In this work, we develop a new probabilistic framework based on extreme value theory that aims to provide early warnings up to several days in advance. We consider the combined events when an observation variable Y (for instance wind speed) exceeds a high threshold y and its corresponding deterministic forecasts X also exceeds a high forecast threshold y. More specifically two problems are addressed:} We consider pairs (X,Y) of extreme events where X represents a deterministic forecast, and Y the observation variable (for instance wind speed). More specifically two problems are addressed: Given a high forecast X=x_0, what is the probability that Y>y? In other words: provide inference on the conditional probability: [ Pr{Y>y|X=x_0}. ] Given a probabilistic model for Problem 1, what is the impact on the verification analysis of extreme events. These problems can be solved with bivariate extremes (Coles, 2001), and the verification analysis in (Ferro, 2007). We apply the Ramos and Ledford (2009) parametric model for bivariate tail estimation of the pair (X,Y). The model accommodates different types of extremal dependence and asymmetry within a parsimonious representation. Results are presented using the ensemble reforecast system of the European Centre of Weather Forecasts (Hagedorn, 2008). Coles, S. (2001) An Introduction to Statistical modelling of Extreme Values. Springer-Verlag.Ferro, C.A.T. (2007) A probability model for verifying deterministic

  14. Integrating indigenous knowledge with conventional science: Enhancing localised climate and weather forecasts in Nessa, Mulanje, Malawi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalanda-Joshua, Miriam; Ngongondo, Cosmo; Chipeta, Lucy; Mpembeka, F.

    Subsistence rain fed agriculture underpins rural livelihoods in the Sub Saharan Africa. The overdependence on rainfall suggests the need for more reliable climate and weather forecasts to guide farm level decision making. Traditionally, African farmers have used indigenous knowledge (IK) to understand weather and climate patterns and make decisions about crops and farming practices. However, increased rainfall variability in recent years associated with climate change has reduced their confidence in indigenous knowledge, hence reducing their adaptive capacity and increasing their vulnerability to climate change. To address this problem, researchers are advocating the integration of indigenous knowledge into scientific climate forecasts at the local level, where it can be used to enhance the resilience of communities vulnerable to climate change. A study was therefore conducted to establish commonly used IK indicators in weather and climate forecasting and people’s perceptions of climate change and variability in Nessa Village, Southern Malawi. We further compared the people’s perceptions on climate change and variability with empirical evidence from a nearby weather station during 1971-2003 and the major constraints that the people face to fully utilise conventional weather and climate forecasts. Our results show various forms of traditional indicators that have been used to predict weather and climate for generations. These include certain patterns and behaviour of flora and fauna as well as environmental conditions. We further established that the peoples documentation of major climatic events over the years in the area agreed with the empirical evidence from the temperature and rainfall data. Overall, rainfall in the area has reduced since 1971 with increasing temperatures. The people were however of the view that current scientific weather and climate predictions in Malawi were not that useful at village level because they do not incorporate IK.

  15. Evaluating National Weather Service Seasonal Forecast Products in Reservoir Operation Case Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nielson, A.; Guihan, R.; Polebistki, A.; Palmer, R. N.; Werner, K.; Wood, A. W.

    2014-12-01

    Forecasts of future weather and streamflow can provide valuable information for reservoir operations and water management. A challenge confronting reservoir operators today is how to incorporate both climate and streamflow products into their operations and which of these forecast products are most informative and useful for optimized water management. This study incorporates several reforecast products provided by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) which allows a complete retrospective analysis of climate forecasts, resulting in an evaluation of each product's skill in the context of water resources management. The accuracy and value of forecasts generated from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) are compared to the accuracy and value of using an Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP) approach. Using the CFSv2 may offer more insight when responding to climate driven extremes than the ESP approach because the CFSv2 incorporates a fully coupled climate model into its forecasts rather than using all of the historic climate record as being equally probable. The role of forecast updating frequency will also be explored. Decision support systems (DSS) for both Salt Lake City Parley's System and the Snohomish County Public Utility Department's (SnoPUD) Jackson project will be used to illustrate the utility of forecasts. Both DSS include a coupled simulation and optimization model that will incorporate system constraints, operating policies, and environmental flow requirements. To determine the value of the reforecast products, performance metrics meaningful to the managers of each system are to be identified and quantified. Without such metrics and awareness of seasonal operational nuances, it is difficult to identify forecast improvements in meaningful ways. These metrics of system performance are compared using the different forecast products to evaluate the potential benefits of using CFSv2 seasonal forecasts in systems decision making.

  16. The space-weather enterprise: past, present, and future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siscoe, G.

    2000-09-01

    Space-weather impacts society in diverse ways. Societies' responses have been correspondingly diverse. Taken together these responses constitute a space weather ``enterprise'', which has developed over time and continues to develop. Technological systems that space-weather affects have grown from isolated telegraph systems in the 1840s to ocean and continent-spanning cable communications systems, from a generator electrifying a few city blocks in the 1880s to continent-spanning networks of high-tension lines, from wireless telegraphy in the 1890s to globe-spanning communication by radio and satellites. To have a name for the global totality of technological systems that are vulnerable to space weather, I suggest calling it the cyberelectrosphere. When the cyberelectrosphere was young, scientists who study space weather, engineers who design systems that space weather affects, and operators of such systems - the personnel behind the space-weather enterprise - were relatively isolated. The space-weather enterprise was correspondingly incoherent. Now that the cyberelectrosphere has become pervasive and indispensable to most segments of society, the space weather enterprise has become systematic and coherent. At present it has achieved considerable momentum, but it has barely begun to realize the level of effectiveness to which it can aspire, as evidenced by achievements of a corresponding but more mature enterprise in meteorology, a field which provides useful lessons. The space-weather enterprise will enter a new phase after it matures roughly to where the tropospheric weather enterprise is now. Then it will become indispensable for humankind's further global networking through technology and for humankind's further utilization of and expansion into space.

  17. Future L5 Missions for Solar Physics and Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Auchere, Frederic; Gopalswamy, Nat

    Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIR) are the sources of intense space weather in the heliosphere. Most of the current knowledge on CMEs accumulated over the past few decades has been derived from observations made from the Sun-Earth line, which is not the ideal vantage point to observe Earth-affecting CMEs (Gopalswamy et al., 2011a,b). In this paper, the advantages of remote-sensing and in-situ observations from the Sun-Earth L5 point are discussed. Locating a mission at Sun-Earth L5 has several key benefits for solar physics and space weather: (1) off the Sun-Earth line view is critical in observing Earth-arriving parts of CMEs, (2) L5 coronagraphic observations can also provide near-Sun space speed of CMEs, which is an important input to models that forecast Earth-arrival time of CMEs, (3) backside and frontside CMEs can be readily distinguished even without inner coronal imagers, (4) preceding CMEs in the path of Earth-affecting CMEs can be identified for a better estimate of the travel time, (5) CIRs reach the L5 point a few days before they arrive at Earth, and hence provide significant lead time before CIR arrival, (6) L5 observations can provide advance knowledge of CME and CIR source regions (coronal holes) rotating to Earth view, and (7) magnetograms obtained from L5 can improve the surface magnetic field distribution used as input to MHD models that predict the background solar wind. The paper also discusses L5 mission concepts that can be achieved in the near future. References Gopalswamy, N., Davila, J. M., St. Cyr, O. C., Sittler, E. C., Auchère, F., Duvall, T. L., Hoeksema, J. T., Maksimovic, M., MacDowall, R. J., Szabo, A., Collier, M. R. (2011a), Earth-Affecting Solar Causes Observatory (EASCO): A potential International Living with a Star Mission from Sun-Earth L5 JASTP 73, 658-663, DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2011.01.013 Gopalswamy, N., Davila, J. M., Auchère, F., Schou, J., Korendyke, C. M. Shih, A., Johnston, J. C

  18. Progress toward filling the weather and climate forecast needs of agricultural and natural resource management

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Several recent developments prompted a review of the current availability of free and official weather, climate, and hydroclimate forecasts for rural locations in the U.S., compared to the situation a decade ago. These developments included a surge in interest among research and operational meteoro...

  19. Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inoue, Jun; Yamazaki, Akira; Ono, Jun; Dethloff, Klaus; Maturilli, Marion; Neuber, Roland; Edwards, Patti; Yamaguchi, Hajime

    2015-11-01

    During ice-free periods, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be an attractive shipping route. The decline in Arctic sea-ice extent, however, could be associated with an increase in the frequency of the causes of severe weather phenomena, and high wind-driven waves and the advection of sea ice could make ship navigation along the NSR difficult. Accurate forecasts of weather and sea ice are desirable for safe navigation, but large uncertainties exist in current forecasts, partly owing to the sparse observational network over the Arctic Ocean. Here, we show that the incorporation of additional Arctic observations improves the initial analysis and enhances the skill of weather and sea-ice forecasts, the application of which has socioeconomic benefits. Comparison of 63-member ensemble atmospheric forecasts, using different initial data sets, revealed that additional Arctic radiosonde observations were useful for predicting a persistent strong wind event. The sea-ice forecast, initialised by the wind fields that included the effects of the observations, skilfully predicted rapid wind-driven sea-ice advection along the NSR.

  20. Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route.

    PubMed

    Inoue, Jun; Yamazaki, Akira; Ono, Jun; Dethloff, Klaus; Maturilli, Marion; Neuber, Roland; Edwards, Patti; Yamaguchi, Hajime

    2015-01-01

    During ice-free periods, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be an attractive shipping route. The decline in Arctic sea-ice extent, however, could be associated with an increase in the frequency of the causes of severe weather phenomena, and high wind-driven waves and the advection of sea ice could make ship navigation along the NSR difficult. Accurate forecasts of weather and sea ice are desirable for safe navigation, but large uncertainties exist in current forecasts, partly owing to the sparse observational network over the Arctic Ocean. Here, we show that the incorporation of additional Arctic observations improves the initial analysis and enhances the skill of weather and sea-ice forecasts, the application of which has socioeconomic benefits. Comparison of 63-member ensemble atmospheric forecasts, using different initial data sets, revealed that additional Arctic radiosonde observations were useful for predicting a persistent strong wind event. The sea-ice forecast, initialised by the wind fields that included the effects of the observations, skilfully predicted rapid wind-driven sea-ice advection along the NSR. PMID:26585690

  1. Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route

    PubMed Central

    Inoue, Jun; Yamazaki, Akira; Ono, Jun; Dethloff, Klaus; Maturilli, Marion; Neuber, Roland; Edwards, Patti; Yamaguchi, Hajime

    2015-01-01

    During ice-free periods, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be an attractive shipping route. The decline in Arctic sea-ice extent, however, could be associated with an increase in the frequency of the causes of severe weather phenomena, and high wind-driven waves and the advection of sea ice could make ship navigation along the NSR difficult. Accurate forecasts of weather and sea ice are desirable for safe navigation, but large uncertainties exist in current forecasts, partly owing to the sparse observational network over the Arctic Ocean. Here, we show that the incorporation of additional Arctic observations improves the initial analysis and enhances the skill of weather and sea-ice forecasts, the application of which has socioeconomic benefits. Comparison of 63-member ensemble atmospheric forecasts, using different initial data sets, revealed that additional Arctic radiosonde observations were useful for predicting a persistent strong wind event. The sea-ice forecast, initialised by the wind fields that included the effects of the observations, skilfully predicted rapid wind-driven sea-ice advection along the NSR. PMID:26585690

  2. Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route.

    PubMed

    Inoue, Jun; Yamazaki, Akira; Ono, Jun; Dethloff, Klaus; Maturilli, Marion; Neuber, Roland; Edwards, Patti; Yamaguchi, Hajime

    2015-01-01

    During ice-free periods, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be an attractive shipping route. The decline in Arctic sea-ice extent, however, could be associated with an increase in the frequency of the causes of severe weather phenomena, and high wind-driven waves and the advection of sea ice could make ship navigation along the NSR difficult. Accurate forecasts of weather and sea ice are desirable for safe navigation, but large uncertainties exist in current forecasts, partly owing to the sparse observational network over the Arctic Ocean. Here, we show that the incorporation of additional Arctic observations improves the initial analysis and enhances the skill of weather and sea-ice forecasts, the application of which has socioeconomic benefits. Comparison of 63-member ensemble atmospheric forecasts, using different initial data sets, revealed that additional Arctic radiosonde observations were useful for predicting a persistent strong wind event. The sea-ice forecast, initialised by the wind fields that included the effects of the observations, skilfully predicted rapid wind-driven sea-ice advection along the NSR.

  3. Global Cooperation in the Science of Space Weather

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, Nat

    2011-01-01

    The international space science community had recognized the importance of space weather more than a decade ago, which resulted in a number of international collaborative activities such as the Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System (CAWSES) by SCOSTEP and the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI). The ISWI program is a continuation of the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) program. These programs have brought scientists together to tackle the scientific issues behind space weather. In addition to the vast array of space instruments, ground based instruments have been deployed, which not only filled voids in data coverage, but also inducted young scientists from developing countries into the scientific community. This paper presents a summary of CAWSES and ISWI activities that promote space weather science via complementary approaches in international scientific collaborations. capacity building. and public outreach.

  4. LOFAR new tool for Space Weather Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rothkaehl, Hanna; Krankowski, Andrzej; Wronowski, Roman; Przepiórka, Dorota; Matyjasiak, Barbara; Błaszkiewicz, Leszek; Dabrowski, Bartosz

    2016-04-01

    LOFAR is the Low-Frequency Array, exploring yet poorly studied range between 30-240 MHz frequencies. It constitutes a European array of thousands of antennas - a challenge for data transfer and processing techniques. The project is based on an interferometry array of radio telescopes using about thousand small antennas concentrated in at least 52 larger stations, 40 of these stations are distributed across the Netherlands, six stations in Germany, 3 in Poland and one each in Great Britain, France and Sweden. The data processing is performed by a Blue Gene/P supercomputer situated in the Netherlands at the University of Groningen. Novel ground based wide area sensor networks, such as the LOFAR (Low Frequency Array) radar facility, comprising wide band, and vector sensing radio receivers and multi-spacecraft plasma diagnostics should help solve outstanding problems of space physics and describe long-term environmental changes. The three new LOFAR stations were installed during 2015 in Poland. The LOFAR facilities in Poland are distributed among three sites: Borówiec near Poznan, Bałdy near Olsztyn and Łazy near Krakow. All they are connected via PIONIER dedicated links to Poznan. The frequency range of LOFAR (10-250 MHz) is a very important for the cosmic plasma physics. In this spectral domain we can observe for a first time the regions of normal and radio galaxies yet unseen at higher frequencies: their radio flux rapidly fades with frequency because of ageing population of high-energy relativistic electrons. This is also the optimum domain for observing the radio emission from magnetospheres of pulsars and giant (solar or extrasolar) planets. LOFAR will also give us chance for monitoring and diagnostic of different processes in space plasma enviroment of the Earth's and rado emissions from Sun. All this provides a trip to yet unexplored domains of the Universe and can be the exelent tool for SSA and Space Weather program

  5. The potential economic benefits of improvements in weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, J. C.

    1972-01-01

    The study was initiated as a consequence of the increased use of weather satellites, electronic computers and other technological developments which have become a virtual necessity for solving the complex problems of the earth's atmosphere. Neither the economic emphasis, nor the monetary results of the study, are intended to imply their sole use as criteria for making decisions concerning the intrinsic value of technological improvements in meteorology.

  6. A Peak Wind Probability Forecast Tool for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crawford, Winifred; Roeder, William

    2008-01-01

    This conference abstract describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in east-central Florida. The peak winds are an important forecast element for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a short-range peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violatioas.The tool will include climatologies of the 5-minute mean end peak winds by month, hour, and direction, and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

  7. The impact of scatterometer wind data on global weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atlas, D.; Baker, W. E.; Kalnay, E.; Halem, M.; Woiceshyn, P. M.; Peteherych, S.

    1984-01-01

    The impact of SEASAT-A scatterometer (SASS) winds on coarse resolution atmospheric model forecasts was assessed. The scatterometer provides high resolution winds, but each wind can have up to four possible directions. One wind direction is correct; the remainder are ambiguous or "aliases'. In general, the effect of objectively dealiased-SASS data was found to be negligible in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, the impact was larger and primarily beneficial when vertical temperature profile radiometer (VTPR) data was excluded. However, the inclusion of VTPR data eliminates the positive impact, indicating some redundancy between the two data sets.

  8. Space Weather Model of July 22-23, 2012 CME

    NASA Video Gallery

    NASA's Space Weather Research Center modeled the July 23, 2012 CME using a modeling program called ENLIL. The CME can be seen to expand dramatically as it travels through space. By comparing how we...

  9. The Impact of Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profiles on Short-term Weather Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Lapenta, William

    2007-01-01

    The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), represents one of the most advanced spacebased atmospheric sounding systems. The combined AlRS/AMSU system provides radiance measurements used to retrieve temperature profiles with an accuracy of 1 K over 1 km layers under both clear and partly cloudy conditions, while the accuracy of the derived humidity profiles is 15% in 2 km layers. Critical to the successful use of AIRS profiles for weather and climate studies is the use of profile quality indicators and error estimates provided with each profile Aside form monitoring changes in Earth's climate, one of the objectives of AIRS is to provide sounding information of sufficient accuracy such that the assimilation of the new observations, especially in data sparse region, will lead to an improvement in weather forecasts. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate highresolution AIRS profile data in a regional analysis/forecast model. The paper will focus on the impact of AIRS profiles on a rapidly developing east coast storm and will also discuss preliminary results for a 30-day forecast period, simulating a quasi-operation environment. Temperature and moisture profiles were obtained from the prototype version 5.0 EOS science team retrieval algorithm which includes explicit error information for each profile. The error profile information was used to select the highest quality temperature and moisture data for every profile location and pressure level for assimilation into the ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS). The AIRS-enhanced analyses were used as initial fields for the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) system used by the SPORT project for regional weather forecast studies. The ADASWRF system will be run on CONUS domain with an emphasis on the east coast. The preliminary assessment of the impact of the AIRS profiles will focus on quality control issues associated with AIRS

  10. How to Map Space Weathering on an Asteroid Surface

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, B. E.; Barucci, M. A.; Merlin, F.; Lantz, C.; Campins, H.; Fornasier, S.; Dotto, E.; Lauretta, D. S.

    2015-11-01

    Our OSIRIS-REx space weathering map of asteroid 101955 Bennu will be an expression of the probability that each surface facet exhibits space weathering. To each surface facet, we will assign a ranking in: slope, band depth, albedo, and context.

  11. Validating Physics-based Space Weather Models for Operational Use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gombosi, Tamas; Singer, Howard; Millward, George; Toth, Gabor; Welling, Daniel

    2016-07-01

    The Geospace components of the Space Weather Modeling Framework developed at the University of Michigan is presently transitioned to operational use by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. This talk will discuss the various ways the model is validated and skill scores are calculated.

  12. Space Weather Needs of an Evolving Customer Base (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rutledge, B.; Viereck, R. A.; Onsager, T. G.

    2013-12-01

    Great progress has been made in raising the global awareness of space weather and the associated impacts on Earth and our technological systems. However, significant gaps still exist in providing comprehensive and easily understood space weather information, products, and services to the diverse and growing customer base. As technologies, such as Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), have become more ingrained in applications and fields of work that previously did not rely on systems sensitive to space weather, the customer base has grown substantially. Furthermore, the causes and effects of space weather can be difficult to interpret without a detailed understanding of the scientific underpinnings. In response to this change, space weather service providers must address this evolution by both improving services and by representing space weather information and impacts in ways that are meaningful to each facet of this diverse customer base. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) must work with users, spanning precision agriculture, emergency management, power grid operators and beyond, to both identify unmet space weather service requirements and to ensure information and decision support services are provided in meaningful and more easily understood forms.

  13. The idea of Space Weather A historical perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kane, R. P.

    This paper reports the results of a search to determine who originated the concept and/or the term Space Weather. Though many people have been identified with an early use of the term "Space Weather", the first one to have introduced the term seems to be Thomas Gold of Harvard College Observatory, in a 1959 publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research.

  14. Implementation of the Immersed Boundary Method in the Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect

    Lundquist, Katherine Ann

    2006-01-01

    Accurate simulations of atmospheric boundary layer flow are vital for predicting dispersion of contaminant releases, particularly in densely populated urban regions where first responders must react within minutes and the consequences of forecast errors are potentially disastrous. Current mesoscale models do not account for urban effects, and conversely urban scale models do not account for mesoscale weather features or atmospheric physics. The ultimate goal of this research is to develop and implement an immersed boundary method (IBM) along with a surface roughness parameterization into the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. IBM will be used in WRF to represent the complex boundary conditions imposed by urban landscapes, while still including forcing from regional weather patterns and atmospheric physics. This document details preliminary results of this research, including the details of three distinct implementations of the immersed boundary method. Results for the three methods are presented for the case of a rotation influenced neutral atmospheric boundary layer over flat terrain.

  15. Solar Radio Bursts and Space Weather

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk,

    2012-01-01

    Radio bursts from the Sun are produced by electron accelerated to relativistic energies by physical processes on the Sun such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The radio bursts are thus good indicators of solar eruptions. Three types of nonthermal radio bursts are generally associated with CMEs. Type III bursts due to accelerated electrons propagating along open magnetic field lines. The electrons are thought to be accelerated at the reconnection region beneath the erupting CME, although there is another view that the electrons may be accelerated at the CME-driven shock. Type II bursts are due to electrons accelerated at the shock front. Type II bursts are also excellent indicators of solar energetic particle (SEP) events because the same shock is supposed accelerate electrons and ions. There is a hierarchical relationship between the wavelength range of type /I bursts and the CME kinetic energy. Finally, Type IV bursts are due to electrons trapped in moving or stationary structures. The low frequency stationary type IV bursts are observed occasionally in association with very fast CMEs. These bursts originate from flare loops behind the erupting CME and hence indicate tall loops. This paper presents a summary of radio bursts and their relation to CMEs and how they can be useful for space weather predictions.

  16. A New Source of Space Weather Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaiser, Michael L.

    2007-01-01

    The twin STEREO spacecraft were launched on October 26,2006 and, after spending several weeks in alignment orbits, became operational in heliocentric orbits on January 2 1,2007. The spacecraft are now in orbits similar to Earth's and are separating from each other at a rate of about 45 degrees per year as viewed from the sun. The STEREO spacecraft are each equipped with a complement of EUV, and white light imagers as well as particles and fields in situ instruments and a radio burst tracker. In addition to full resolution data downloaded once per day, each spacecraft broadcasts a real time telemetry 'beacon' stream containing compressed images and typically one minute averages of solar wind measurements and radio intensities. These real time data streams are received by a mix of NOAA and NASA-managed tracking stations and the data is transmitted by these stations to the STEREO Science Center at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center where they are processed into useable parameters with a latency of less than five minutes from receipt. As the two spacecraft recede from the sun-Earth line, triangulation of the imaging and radio measurements should allow better estimate of the speed and direction of coronal mass ejections, allowing a more precise estimate of their arrival at Earth. In situ particles and fields measurements, particularly for the spacecraft (Behind) trailing Earth in its orbit, will sample the solar wind that will eventually co-rotate around to the sun-Earth line. Late in the prime mission when the spacecraft are very far (>90 degrees) from the sun-Earth line, observations from the Behind spacecraft, will be particularly valuable for providing a preview of active regions well beyond the sun's East limb (as seen from Earth). Continually updated STEREO space weather data can be viewed and downloaded at http:/lstereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.govldata/beacon/.

  17. Communicating Climate Change - Weather Forecast Need Assessment and Information Dissemination Mechanism to Farmers in Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panthi, J., Sr.

    2014-12-01

    Climate Change is becoming one of the major threats to the fragile Himalayan ecosystem. It is affecting all sectors mainly fresh water, agriculture, forest, biodiversity and species. The subsistence agriculture system of Nepal is mainly rain-fed; therefore, climate change and climate extremes do have direct impacts on it. Weather extremes like droughts, floods and landslides long-lasting fog, hot and cold waves are affecting the agriculture sectors of Nepal. As human-induced climate change has already showing its impacts and it is going to be there for a long time to come, it is paramount importance to move towards the adaptation. Early warning system is an effective way for reducing the impacts of disasters. Forecasting of weather parameters (temperature, precipitation, and wind) helps farmers for their preparedness activities. With consultation with farmers and other relevant institutions, a research project was carried out, for the first time in Nepal, to identify the forecast information need to farmers and their dissemination mechanism. Community consultation workshops, key informant survey, and field observations were the techniques used for this research. Two ecological locations: Bageshwori VDC in Banke (plain) and Dhaibung VDC in Rasuwa (mountain) were taken as the pilot sites for this assessment. People in both the districts are dependent highly on agriculture and the weather extremes like hailstone, untimely rainfall; droughts are affecting their agriculture practices. They do not have confidence in the weather forecast information disseminated by the government of Nepal currently being done because it is a general forecast not done for a smaller domain and the forecast is valid only for 24 hours. The weather forecast need to the farmers in both the sites are: rainfall (intensity, duration and time), drought, and hailstone but in Banke, people wished to have the information of heat and cold waves too as they are affecting their wheat and tomato crops

  18. Evidence for Intense Space Weathering on Mercury

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucey, P. G.; Riner, M. A.

    2010-12-01

    The optical effects of exposure of lunar materials to space are well-characterized (e.g [1]) and similar effects are expected on Mercury. In the lunar case perhaps the most notable effect is strong reddening of lunar materials relative to powdered lunar rocks. There is consensus that this is due to the effect of extremely fine grained (10’s of nm) particles of iron that occur in rims on mineral grains generated during micrometeorite impact and sputtering [2]. Noble et al. 2007 [3] studied silica gel samples infused with fine grained iron and observed lunar-like optical effects. Hapke 2001 [4] used Maxwell-Garnett theory to combine the optical properties of iron metal with the optical properties of the host lunar material to successfully produce the reddening and darkening effects observed. Lucey and Noble 2008 [5] tested the Hapke 2001 formulation against the Noble et al. (2007) data and found good agreement when particles were small with respect to the wavelength. However, particles that were larger than about 50 nm showed sharp deviations from the predictions of the Hapke 2001 treatment. At present there is no theoretical treatment of iron metal inclusions that darken, but do not redden. The Hapke 2001 formulation for modeling the optical effect of iron particles within grains relates the complex index of refraction of the host mineral, iron and particle size of the host to the single scattering albedo to account for absorption due to subwavelength particle inclusions, and adds this to his previously defined absorption coefficient. This absorbing effect, based on equivalent medium Maxwell-Garnett theory, assumes the particles are much smaller than the wavelength, and hence has no particle size dependence. While [5] showed Hapke’s model for space weathering works well for very small particles, the larger particles in the Noble et al. 2007 experiments did not conform well to predictions. To introduce a wavelength dependent term we replace Hapke’s term that

  19. Economic consequences of improved temperature forecasts: An experiment with the Florida citrus growers (control group results). Executive summary. [weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    A demonstration experiment is being planned to show that frost and freeze prediction improvements are possible utilizing timely Synchronous Meteorological Satellite temperature measurements and that this information can affect Florida citrus grower operations and decisions so as to significantly reduce the cost for frost and freeze protection and crop losses. The design and implementation of the first phase of an economic experiment which will monitor citrus growers decisions, actions, costs and losses, and meteorological forecasts and actual weather events was carried out. The economic experiment was designed to measure the change in annual protection costs and crop losses which are the direct result of improved temperature forecasts. To estimate the benefits that may result from improved temperature forecasting capability, control and test groups were established with effective separation being accomplished temporally. The control group, utilizing current forecasting capability, was observed during the 1976-77 frost season and the results are reported. A brief overview is given of the economic experiment, the results obtained to date, and the work which still remains to be done.

  20. Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning: Summary report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keitz, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This summary report discusses the results of each of the four major tasks of the study. Task 1 compared airline flight plans based on operational forecasts to plans based on the verifying analyses and found that average fuel savings of 1.2 to 2.5 percent are possible with improved forecasts. Task 2 consisted of similar comparisons but used a model developed for the FAA by SRI International that simulated the impact of ATc diversions on the flight plans. While parts of Task 2 confirm the Task I findings, inconsistency with other data and the known impact of ATC suggests that other Task 2 findings are the result of errors in the model. Task 3 compares segment weather data from operational flight plans with the weather actually observed by the aircraft and finds the average error could result in fuel burn penalties (or savings) of up to 3.6 percent for the average 8747 flight. In Task 4 an in-depth analysis of the weather forecast for the 33 days included in the study finds that significant errors exist on 15 days. Wind speeds in the area of maximum winds are underestimated by 20 to 50 kts., a finding confirmed in the other three tasks.

  1. Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble weather forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheung, J. C. H.; Haigh, J. D.; Jackson, D. R.

    2014-08-01

    As the stratosphere is largely characterized by its ozone abundance, the quality of the ozone field is important for a realistic representation of the stratosphere in weather and climate models. While the stratosphere is directly affected by radiative heating from ozone photodissociation, ozone abundance might also impact the representation of the troposphere since the stratosphere and troposphere are dynamically linked. In this paper, we examine the potential benefits of using ozone data from the Earth Observing System (EOS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) for medium-extended range tropospheric forecasts in a current numerical weather prediction system. The global component of the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System is used, which is run at a resolution of N216 L85 with 24 ensemble members. We compare two scenarios of 31 day forecasts covering the same period, one with the current operational ozone climatology and the other with a monthly mean zonally averaged ozone field computed from the MLS data set. In the extreme case of the Arctic "ozone hole" of March 2011, our results show a general reduction in stratospheric forecast errors in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere as a result of the improved representation of ozone. However, even in such a scenario, where the MLS ozone field is much superior to that of the control, we find that tropospheric forecast errors in the medium-extended range are dominated by the spread of ensemble members and no significant reduction in the root-mean-square forecast errors.

  2. Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 4

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keitz, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 4 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 4 uses flight plan segment wind and temperature differences as indicators of dates and geographic areas for which significant forecast errors may have occurred. An in-depth analysis is then conducted for the days identified. The analysis show that significant errors occur in the operational forecast on 15 of the 33 arbitrarily selected days included in the study. Wind speeds in an area of maximum winds are underestimated by at least 20 to 25 kts. on 14 of these days. The analysis also show that there is a tendency to repeat the same forecast errors from prog to prog. Also, some perceived forecast errors from the flight plan comparisons could not be verified by visual inspection of the corresponding National Meteorological Center forecast and analyses charts, and it is likely that they are the result of weather data interpolation techniques or some other data processing procedure in the airlines' flight planning systems.

  3. Filament Eruptions, Jets, and Space Weather

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, Ronald; Sterling, Alphonse; Robe, Nick; Falconer, David; Cirtain, Jonathan

    2013-01-01

    -plasma component of coronal X-ray jets. This favors the idea that Type-II spicules are miniature counterparts of coronal X-ray jets. In Moore et al (2011, ApJ, 731, L18), we pointed out that if Type-II spicules are magnetic eruptions that work like coronal X-ray jets, they carry an area-averaged mechanical energy flux of approximately 7x10)(exp 5) erg cm(exp -2) s(exp-1) into the corona in the form of MHD waves and jet outflow, enough to power the heating of the global corona and solar wind. On this basis, from our observations of mini-filament eruptions in blowout X-ray jets, we infer that magnetic explosions of the type that have erupting filaments in them are the main engines of both (1) the steady solar wind and (2) the CMEs that produce the most severe space weather by blasting out through the corona and solar wind, making solar energetic particle storms, and bashing the Earth's magnetosphere. We conclude that in focusing on prominences and filament eruptions, Einar had his eye on the main bet for understanding what powers all space weather, both the extreme and the normal.

  4. Evaluation of the 29-km Eta Model for Weather Support to the United States Space Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manobianco, John; Nutter, Paul

    1997-01-01

    The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) conducted a year-long evaluation of NCEP's 29-km mesoscale Eta (meso-eta) weather prediction model in order to identify added value to forecast operations in support of the United States space program. The evaluation was stratified over warm and cool seasons and considered both objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective verification results generally indicate that meso-eta model point forecasts at selected stations exhibit minimal error growth in terms of RMS errors and are reasonably unbiased. Conversely, results from the subjective verification demonstrate that model forecasts of developing weather events such as thunderstorms, sea breezes, and cold fronts, are not always as accurate as implied by the seasonal error statistics. Sea-breeze case studies reveal that the model generates a dynamically-consistent thermally direct circulation over the Florida peninsula, although at a larger scale than observed. Thunderstorm verification reveals that the meso-eta model is capable of predicting areas of organized convection, particularly during the late afternoon hours but is not capable of forecasting individual thunderstorms. Verification of cold fronts during the cool season reveals that the model is capable of forecasting a majority of cold frontal passages through east central Florida to within +1-h of observed frontal passage.

  5. Solar Energetic Particles and Space Weather

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reames, Donald V.; Tylka, Allan J.; Ng, Chee K.

    2001-01-01

    The solar energetic particles (SEPs) of consequence to space weather are accelerated at shock waves driven out from the Sun by fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In the large events, these great shocks fill half of the heliosphere. SEP intensity profiles change appearance with longitude. Events with significant intensities of greater than ten MeV protons occur at an average rate of approx. 13 per year near solar maximum and several events with high intensities of > 100 McV protons occur each decade. As particles stream out along magnetic field lines from a shock near the Sun, they generate waves that scatter subsequent particles. At high intensities, wave growth throttles the flow below the 'streaming limit.' However, if the shock maintains its strength, particle intensities can rise above this limit to a peak when the shock itself passes over the observer creating a 'delayed' radiation hazard, even for protons with energies up to approx. one GeV. The streaming limit makes us blind to the intensities at the oncoming shock, however, heavier elements such as He, O, and Fe probe the shape of the wave spectrum, and variation in abundances of these elements allow us to evade the limit and probe conditions at the shock, with the aid of detailed modeling. At high energies, spectra steepen to form a spectral 'knee'. The location of the proton spectral knee can vary from approx. ten MeV to approx. one GeV, depending on shock conditions, greatly affecting the radiation hazard. Hard spectra are a serious threat to astronauts, placing challenging requirements for shielding, especially on long-duration missions to the moon or Mars.

  6. Building a new space weather facility at the National Observatory of Athens

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kontogiannis, Ioannis; Belehaki, Anna; Tsiropoula, Georgia; Tsagouri, Ioanna; Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Papaioannou, Athanasios

    2016-01-01

    The PROTEAS project has been initiated at the Institute of Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing (IAASARS) of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA). One of its main objectives is to provide observations, processed data and space weather nowcasting and forecasting products, designed to support the space weather research community and operators of commercial and industrial systems. The space weather products to be released by this facility, will be the result of the exploitation of ground-based, as well as space-borne observations and of model results and tools already available or under development by IAASARS researchers. The objective will be achieved through: (a) the operation of a small full-disk solar telescope to conduct regular observations of the Sun in the H-alpha line; (b) the construction of a database with near real-time solar observations which will be available to the community through a web-based facility (HELIOSERVER); (c) the development of a tool for forecasting Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events in relation to observed solar eruptive events; (d) the upgrade of the Athens Digisonde with digital transceivers and the capability of operating in bi-static link mode and (e) the sustainable operation of the European Digital Upper Atmosphere Server (DIAS) upgraded with additional data sets integrated in an interface with the HELIOSERVER and with improved models for the real-time quantification of the effects of solar eruptive events in the ionosphere.

  7. Space weather circulation model of plasma clouds as background radiation medium of space environment.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalu, A. E.

    A model for Space Weather (SW) Circulation with Plasma Clouds as background radiation medium of Space Environment has been proposed and discussed. Major characteristics of the model are outlined and the model assumes a baroclinic Space Environment in view of observed pronounced horizontal electron temperature gradient with prevailing weak vertical temperature gradient. The primary objective of the study is to be able to monitor and realistically predict on real- or near real-time SW and Space Storms (SWS) affecting human economic systems on Earth as well as the safety and Physiologic comfort of human payload in Space Environment in relation to planned increase in human space flights especially with reference to the ISS Space Shuttle Taxi (ISST) Programme and other prolonged deep Space Missions. Although considerable discussions are now available in the literature on SW issues, routine Meteorological operational applications of SW forecast data and information for Space Environment are still yet to receive adequate attention. The paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature of SW. The paper examines the sensitivity and variability in 3-D continuum of Plasmas in response to solar radiation inputs into the magnetosphere under disturbed Sun condition. Specifically, the presence of plasma clouds in the form of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is stressed as a major source of danger to Space crews, spacecraft instrumentation and architecture charging problems as well as impacts on numerous radiation - sensitive human economic systems on Earth. Finally, the paper considers the application of model results in the form of effective monitoring of each of the two major phases of manned Spaceflights - take-off and re-entry phases where all-time assessment of spacecraft transient ambient micro-incabin and outside Space Environment is vital for all manned Spaceflights as recently evidenced by the loss of vital information during take-off of the February 1, 2003 US Columbia

  8. Understanding Space Weather and the Physics Behind It

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knipp, D. J.; Gross, N. A.

    2011-12-01

    A new textbook on space weather, Understanding Space Weather and the Physics Behind It, aimed at upper-level undergraduates and beginning graduate students, contains numerous examples of basic physics applications in space weather. We will highlight a few of the examples from the text. In addition, new material is being developed to support the many references to NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) graphics and scales. Our intent is to provide background and improved understanding of the underpinnings of the operational images. In this presentation we provide a set of questions, tools, and exercises that guide inquiry into the observations and proxies behind some of elements on SWPC's home page. Our materials include observation sequences for the types of space weather disturbances discussed in SWPC's Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity and the NOAA Space Weather Scales. Our instructional materials are in standard electronic document formats and in "dashboard" format supported by tools from the Integrated Space Weather Analysis platform at NASA's Community Coordinated Modeling Center.

  9. Convective Weather Forecast Quality Metrics for Air Traffic Management Decision-Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chatterji, Gano B.; Gyarfas, Brett; Chan, William N.; Meyn, Larry A.

    2006-01-01

    Since numerical weather prediction models are unable to accurately forecast the severity and the location of the storm cells several hours into the future when compared with observation data, there has been a growing interest in probabilistic description of convective weather. The classical approach for generating uncertainty bounds consists of integrating the state equations and covariance propagation equations forward in time. This step is readily recognized as the process update step of the Kalman Filter algorithm. The second well known method, known as the Monte Carlo method, consists of generating output samples by driving the forecast algorithm with input samples selected from distributions. The statistical properties of the distributions of the output samples are then used for defining the uncertainty bounds of the output variables. This method is computationally expensive for a complex model compared to the covariance propagation method. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that a complex non-linear model can be easily handled. Recently, a few different methods for probabilistic forecasting have appeared in the literature. A method for computing probability of convection in a region using forecast data is described in Ref. 5. Probability at a grid location is computed as the fraction of grid points, within a box of specified dimensions around the grid location, with forecast convection precipitation exceeding a specified threshold. The main limitation of this method is that the results are dependent on the chosen dimensions of the box. The examples presented Ref. 5 show that this process is equivalent to low-pass filtering of the forecast data with a finite support spatial filter. References 6 and 7 describe the technique for computing percentage coverage within a 92 x 92 square-kilometer box and assigning the value to the center 4 x 4 square-kilometer box. This technique is same as that described in Ref. 5. Characterizing the forecast, following

  10. On the dynamic estimation of relative weights for observation and forecast in numerical weather prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wahba, Grace; Deepak, A. (Editor)

    1988-01-01

    The problem of merging direct and remotely sensed (indirect) data with forecast data to get an estimate of the present state of the atmosphere for the purpose of numerical weather prediction is examined. To carry out this merging optimally, it is necessary to provide an estimate of the relative weights to be given to the observations and forecast. It is possible to do this dynamically from the information to be merged, if the correlation structure of the errors from the various sources is sufficiently different. Some new statistical approaches to doing this are described, and conditions quantified in which such estimates are likely to be good.

  11. Space Weather Monitoring for ISS Space Environments Engineering and Crew Auroral Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Minow, Joseph; Pettit, Donald R.; Hartman, William A.

    2012-01-01

    Today s presentation describes how real time space weather data is used by the International Space Station (ISS) space environments team to obtain data on auroral charging of the ISS vehicle and support ISS crew efforts to obtain auroral images from orbit. Topics covered include: Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU), . Auroral charging of ISS, . Real ]time space weather monitoring resources, . Examples of ISS auroral charging captured from space weather events, . ISS crew observations of aurora.

  12. Overview of the Diagnostic Cloud Forecast Model at the Air Force Weather Agency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hildebrand, E. P.

    2014-12-01

    The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) is responsible for running and maintaining the Diagnostic Cloud Forecast (DCF) model to support DoD missions and those of their external partners. The DCF model generates three-dimensional cloud forecasts for global and regional domains at various resolutions. Regional domains are chosen based on Air Force mission needs. DCF is purely a statistical model that can be appended to any numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Operationally, AFWA runs the DCF model deterministically using GFS data from NCEP and WRF data that are created in-house. In addition, AFWA also runs an ensemble version of the DCF model using the Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). The deterministic DCF uses predictor variables from the WRF or GFS models, depending on whether the domain is regional or global, and statistically relates them to observed cloud cover from the World-Wide Merged Cloud Analysis (WWMCA). The forecast process of the model uses an ordinal logistic regression to predict membership in one of 101 groups (every 1% from 0-100%). The predicted group membership then is translated into a cloud amount. This is performed on 21 pressure levels ranging from 1000 hPa to 100 hPa. Cloud amount forecasts on these 21 levels are used along with the NWP geopotential height forecasts to estimate the base and top heights of cloud layers in the vertical. DCF also includes routines to estimate the amount and type of cloud within each layer. Forecasts of total cloud amount are verified using the WWMCA, as well as independent sources of cloud data. This presentation will include an overview of the DCF model and its use at AFWA. Results will be presented to show that DCF adds value over the raw cloud forecasts from NWP models. Ideas for future work also will be addressed.