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Sample records for space weather forecast

  1. Space Weather Forecasting: An Enigma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sojka, J. J.

    2012-12-01

    -pipe" disciplines. The perceived progress in space weather understanding differs significantly depending upon which community (scientific, technology, forecaster, society) is addressing the question. Even more divergent are these thoughts when the question is how valuable is the scientific capability of forecasting space weather. This talk will discuss present day as well as future potential for forecasting space weather for a few selected examples. The author will attempt to straddle the divergent community opinions.

  2. Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare

  3. Forecasting Space Weather Solar Indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henney, C. J.; Shurkin, K.; Arge, C. N.

    2016-12-01

    Progress towards forecasting key space weather parameters, up to 7 days in advance, using SIFT(Solar Indices Forecasting Tool) with the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric fluxTransport) model will be discussed in this presentation. The forecasting method reviewed here,and fully outlined in Henney et al. 2012 and Henney et al. 2015, utilizes the solar near-sidemagnetic field distribution estimated with the ADAPT flux transport model as input to the SIFTempirical models, which predict selected bands (between 0.1 to 175 nm) of solar soft X-ray (XUV),far ultraviolet (FUV), and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance, along with observed F10.7 (solar10.7 cm, 2.8 GHz, radio flux), sunspot number (SSN), and the Mg II core-to-wing ratio values. TheADAPT model assimilates input magnetogram data from SDO/HMI, NISP/GONG, & NISP/VSM. We will provide a summary of recent updates regarding the ADAPT and SIFT models. The ADAPT model development is supported primarily by AFRL, with additional support from NASA. This work utilizes data produced collaboratively between AFRL and NSO.

  4. Prediction Techniques in Operational Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhukov, Andrei

    2016-07-01

    The importance of forecasting space weather conditions is steadily increasing as our society is becoming more and more dependent on advanced technologies that may be affected by disturbed space weather. Operational space weather forecasting is still a difficult task that requires the real-time availability of input data and specific prediction techniques that are reviewed in this presentation, with an emphasis on solar and interplanetary weather. Key observations that are essential for operational space weather forecasting are listed. Predictions made on the base of empirical and statistical methods, as well as physical models, are described. Their validation, accuracy, and limitations are discussed in the context of operational forecasting. Several important problems in the scientific basis of predicting space weather are described, and possible ways to overcome them are discussed, including novel space-borne observations that could be available in future.

  5. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, Forecast Office

    NASA Image and Video Library

    The Forecast Office of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the nation's official source of alerts, warnings, and watches. The office, staffed 24/7, is always vigilant for solar activity that ...

  6. How MAG4 Improves Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David; Khazanov, Igor; Barghouty, Nasser

    2013-01-01

    Dangerous space weather is driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs). Forecasting flares and CMEs is the first step to forecasting either dangerous space weather or All Clear. MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events.

  7. Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

    2015-12-01

    The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

  8. Space weather forecasting: Past, Present, Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lanzerotti, L. J.

    2012-12-01

    There have been revolutionary advances in electrical technologies over the last 160 years. The historical record demonstrates that space weather processes have often provided surprises in the implementation and operation of many of these technologies. The historical record also demonstrates that as the complexity of systems increase, including their interconnectedness and interoperability, they can become more susceptible to space weather effects. An engineering goal, beginning during the decades following the 1859 Carrington event, has been to attempt to forecast solar-produced disturbances that could affect technical systems, be they long grounded conductor-based or radio-based or required for exploration, or the increasingly complex systems immersed in the space environment itself. Forecasting of space weather events involves both frontier measurements and models to address engineering requirements, and industrial and governmental policies that encourage and permit creativity and entrepreneurship. While analogies of space weather forecasting to terrestrial weather forecasting are frequently made, and while many of the analogies are valid, there are also important differences. This presentation will provide some historical perspectives on the forecast problem, a personal assessment of current status of several areas including important policy issues, and a look into the not-too-distant future.

  9. Development of a Space Weather forecast service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirsch, Peter; Isles, John; Burge, Christina

    2014-05-01

    Space weather describes changes in the near-Earth space environment, it includes the monitoring of magnetic fields, plasma, radiation and other matter. Ejections of plasma from the Sun and magnetic storms at the Earth can increase the number of high energy particles trapped in the Earth's magnetic field; these events can present risks and hazards to space-borne instrumentation and personnel. Improved knowledge of space weather processes acquired through monitoring via both satellite and ground based instruments and related collaborative research projects (European Union Framework 7 - SPACECAST) has allowed the further development of forecasting models such as the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Radiation Belt model. A system is being developed which enables real-time access to a space weather forecast service. This service will provide a 3-hourly forward look, updated hourly. To enable this forecast, systems are in place to gather, in real-time, ancillary data required for input into the BAS model, in particular data from the GOES satellite instruments. Auxiliary information from other satellites (e.g. ACE) and ground based magnetometers are also gathered and presented to assist in the interpretation of current space weather activity. BAS is working in collaboration with satellite operators and other interested parties to provide an interface which will inform them, in a timely fashion, of events that may require mitigating action to prevent possible extensive (and costly) effects to, for example, communication services. Data can be obtained via a web service, or viewed directly via a browser interface. In addition, it is anticipated that a post-event analysis suite be available, enabling the more detailed view of recent and past events and the possibility of running the model to "replay" periods of space weather history.

  10. Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

  11. New approaches to space weather forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parnowski, Aleksei; Cheremnykh, Oleg; Yatsenko, Vitaly

    2010-05-01

    We developed several approaches to the problem of real-time space weather indices forecasting using readily available data from ACE and a number of ground stations. The first one is based on a dynamical-information approach to nonlinear modeling of space plasma [1]. It uses new nonlinear mathematical models of geomagnetic indices and original algorithms for detection of structure and parameters. The identification problem is formulated as a constrained optimization problem. Novel algorithms provide an optimal structure of discrete dynamical system using fuzzy systems modeling. The second one is based on the regression modeling method [2], which combines the benefits of empirical and statistical approaches. It uses such statistical methods as the linear regression analysis, maximum likelihood method, dispersion analysis and Monte-Carlo simulations to deduce the empirical relationships in the system. In both cases the typical elapsed time per forecast is about several seconds on an average PC. Such techniques can be easily extended to other indices like AE and Kp. The proposed system can also be useful for investigating of physical phenomena related to interactions between the solar wind and the magnetosphere - it already helped uncovering two new geoeffective parameters. In addition, we performed the risk analysis of damage to VUV, EUV and X-ray optics due to space weather factors and analyzed the safety of space instruments. We plan combining short-term and medium-term approaches to accurately predict geomagnetic storms at least 5-10 hours before commencement. Practical applications of such a system include (but are not limited to): - spacecraft safety (prediction of radiation threat); - human health (putting emergency services on alert); - prevention of technological disasters (power grid failures, major radio blackouts). 1. Cheremnykh O.K., Yatsenko V.A., Semeniv O.V., Shatokhina Yu.V. Nonlinear dynamics and prediction for space weather // Ukr. J. Phys. — 2008

  12. Flare forecasting at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murray, S. A.; Bingham, S.; Sharpe, M.; Jackson, D. R.

    2017-04-01

    The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre produces 24/7/365 space weather guidance, alerts, and forecasts to a wide range of government and commercial end-users across the United Kingdom. Solar flare forecasts are one of its products, which are issued multiple times a day in two forms: forecasts for each active region on the solar disk over the next 24 h and full-disk forecasts for the next 4 days. Here the forecasting process is described in detail, as well as first verification of archived forecasts using methods commonly used in operational weather prediction. Real-time verification available for operational flare forecasting use is also described. The influence of human forecasters is highlighted, with human-edited forecasts outperforming original model results and forecasting skill decreasing over longer forecast lead times.

  13. A scheme for forecasting severe space weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balan, N.; Ebihara, Y.; Skoug, R.; Shiokawa, K.; Batista, I. S.; Tulasi Ram, S.; Omura, Y.; Nakamura, T.; Fok, M.-C.

    2017-03-01

    A scheme is suggested and tested for forecasting severe space weather (SvSW) using solar wind velocity (V) and the north-south component (Bz) of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) measured using the ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) satellite from 1998 to 2016. SvSW has caused all known electric power outages and telegraph system failures. Earlier SvSW events such as the Carrington event of 1859, Quebec event of 1989 and an event in 1958 are included with information from the literature. Dst storms are used as references to identify 89 major space weather events (DstMin ≤ -100 nT) in 1998-2016. The coincidence of high coronal mass ejection (CME) front (or CME shock) velocity ΔV (sudden increase in V over the background by over 275 km/s) and sufficiently large Bz southward at the time of the ΔV increase is associated with SvSW; and their product (ΔV × Bz) is found to exhibit a large negative spike at the speed increase. Such a product (ΔV × Bz) exceeding a threshold seems suitable for forecasting SvSW. However, the coincidence of high V (not containing ΔV) and large Bz southward does not correspond to SvSW, indicating the importance of the impulsive action of large Bz southward and high ΔV coming through when they coincide. The need for the coincidence is verified using the CRCM (Comprehensive Ring Current Model), which produces extreme Dst storms ( < -250 nT) characterizing SvSW when there is coincidence.

  14. System Science approach to Space Weather forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balikhin, Michael A.

    There are many dynamical systems in nature that are so complex that mathematical models of their behaviour can not be deduced from first principles with the present level of our knowledge. Obvious examples are organic cell, human brain, etc often attract system scientists. A example that is closer to space physics is the terrestrial magnetosphere. The system approach has been developed to understand such complex objects from the observation of their dynamics. The systems approach employs advanced data analysis methodologies to identify patterns in the overall system behaviour and provides information regarding the linear and nonlinear processes involved in the dynamics of the system. This, in combination with the knowledge deduced from the first principles, creates the opportunity to find mathematical relationships that govern the evolution of a particular physical system. Advances and problems of systems science applications to provide a reliable forecasts of space weather phenomena such as geomagnetic storms, substorms and radiation belts particle fluxes are reviewed and compared with the physics based models.

  15. Surface Particle Detectors in Space Weather forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chilingarian, Ashot

    Recently several groups report on the development of the alarm system based on the surface particle detector data. Among them are high-latitude neutron monitors network "Spaceship Earth", coordinated by the group from Bartol Research Center; Muon network coordinated by the group from Shinshu University and Athens Neutron Monitor Data Processing Center. In the presented report, based on the information content of data from particle detectors of Aragats Space Environmental Center (ASEC) we made attempt to review possibility of surface particle detectors in Space Weather forecasts. Particle monitors located at ASEC at 1000, 2000 and 3200 m altitudes (40˚25 N, 44˚15 E; Vertical cut-off rigidity in 2007: 7.1 GV) detect charged and neutral components of the secondary cosmic rays with different energy thresholds and various angles of incidence. ASEC monitors reliably detect the highest energy CR due to unique geographical location and large underground high energy muon detector. Forecasting of the Solar Energetic Proton (SEP) events by surface particle detectors is based on the detection of the Ground Level Enhancements (GLE). Unfortunately not all SEPs contain particles energetic enough to produce GLE, therefore, the efficiency of the warnings will not be very high. Nonetheless, we can expect that the major events, (like 1859, 1956, 1972, 1989) with high probability will generate GLEs and surface detectors can provide forewarnings on upcoming abundant SEP particles. With the exception of the event on 20 January, when due to very good magnetic connection of the flare site with earth, all relativistic particles seem to come simultaneously, the enhancements of GeV solar particles detected by surface particle detectors can alert on upcoming severe radiation storm. The alerts from middle and low latitude monitors are even more important compared to high latitude networks, because of lower probability of false alarms. If an enhancement occurs at monitors with large cutoff

  16. Review on space weather in Latin America. 3. Development of space weather forecasting centers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dasso, Sergio; Gonzalez-Esparza, J. Americo

    2016-11-01

    The present work is the third of a three-part review of space weather in Latin America, specifically observing its evolution in three countries (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico). This work presents the decision process for the spinning off of space weather prediction centers from space science groups with our interpretation of the reasons/opportunities that lead to this. Lastly, the constraints for the progress in space weather monitoring, research, and forecast are listed with recommendations to overcome them, which we believe will lead to the access of key variables for the monitoring and forecasting space weather, which will allow these centers to better monitor space weather and issue warnings, ​watches and alerts.

  17. New Techniques in Space Weather Forecasting

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-05-01

    during Solar Cycle 23, J. Geophys. Res. (accepted ) 2006. [2] M. Kartalev, M. Dryer , K. Grigorov, E. Stoimenova. Solar wind polytropic index...Magneto Hydrodynamics (MHD) discontinuities that occur due to the solar wind, and its effects on communications. 15. SUBJECT...TERMS EOARD, Communications, Space Weather, Solar Physics 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON MICHAEL KJ MILLIGAN, Lt Col

  18. Operational Space Weather Forecasting: Requirements and Future Needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henley, E.; Gibbs, M.; Jackson, D.; Marsh, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    The Met Office has over 150 years' experience in providing operational forecasting to meet the UK's terrestrial weather needs, and is developing a similar capability in space weather. Since April 2014 the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) has issued 24/7 operational forecasts, alerts and warnings on space weather which can have impacts on electricity grids, radio communications and satellite electronics. In this talk we will summarise the current requirements and future needs for operational space weather forecasting. We will review what the terrestrial weather community considers as operational forecasts, and use MOSWOC as an example of the underpinning research, IT and collaborations required to accomplish this. We will also discuss the policy, science evidence base and user support requirements needed to obtain sufficient long-term funding for operational activities, illustrating this with the UK's national risk register, Royal Academy of Engineering report, and the forthcoming IPSP economic study, as well as work done with users to ensure services match their needs. These are similar activities to those being undertaken in SWORM and the COSPAR/ILWS Space Weather Shield to Society Roadmap. Future needs will also be considered, considering the need for operational observations, particularly focussing on the role an L5 mission could play; a chain of coupled operational models covering the Sun, Earth, and intervening space; and how these observations and models can be integrated via data assimilation.

  19. Near Real Time Data for Operational Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berger, T. E.

    2014-12-01

    Space weather operations presents unique challenges for data systems and providers. Space weather events evolve more quickly than terrestrial weather events. While terrestrial weather occurs on timescales of minutes to hours, space weather storms evolve on timescales of seconds to minutes. For example, the degradation of the High Frequency Radio communications between the ground and commercial airlines is nearly instantaneous when a solar flare occurs. Thus the customer is observing impacts at the same time that the operational forecast center is seeing the event unfold. The diversity and spatial scale of the space weather system is such that no single observation can capture the salient features. The vast space that encompasses space weather and the scarcity of observations further exacerbates the situation and make each observation even more valuable. The physics of interplanetary space, through which many major storms propagate, is very different from the physics of the ionosphere where most of the impacts are felt. And while some observations can be made from ground-based observatories, many of the most critical data comes from satellites, often in unique orbits far from Earth. In this presentation, I will describe some of the more important sources and types of data that feed into the operational alerts, watches, and warnings of space weather storms. Included will be a discussion of some of the new space weather forecast models and the data challenges that they bring forward.

  20. Forecasting of Weather Effects for the Deep Space Network

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendoza, Ricardo; Benjauthrit, Boonsieng

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a proposed approach for Ka-band link management for deep space applications using daily weather forecasts and discusses the tools that will be employed for operations. Performance metrics are also presented. The proposed approach will be tested in a two-year experiment campaign.

  1. Forecasting of Weather Effects for the Deep Space Network

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendoza, Ricardo; Benjauthrit, Boonsieng

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a proposed approach for Ka-band link management for deep space applications using daily weather forecasts and discusses the tools that will be employed for operations. Performance metrics are also presented. The proposed approach will be tested in a two-year experiment campaign.

  2. Fifty Years of Space Weather Forecasting from Boulder

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berger, T. E.

    2015-12-01

    The first official space weather forecast was issued by the Space Disturbances Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, in 1965, ushering in an era of operational prediction that continues to this day. Today, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) charters the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) as one of the nine National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to provide the nation's official watches, warnings, and alerts of space weather phenomena. SWPC is now integral to national and international efforts to predict space weather events, from the common and mild, to the rare and extreme, that can impact critical technological infrastructure. In 2012, the Strategic National Risk Assessment included extreme space weather events as low-to-medium probability phenomena that could, unlike any other meteorogical phenomena, have an impact on the government's ability to function. Recognizing this, the White House chartered the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to produce the first comprehensive national strategy for the prediction, mitigation, and response to an extreme space weather event. The implementation of the National Strategy is ongoing with NOAA, its partners, and stakeholders concentrating on the goal of improving our ability to observe, model, and predict the onset and severity of space weather events. In addition, work continues with the research community to improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms - on the Sun, in the heliosphere, and in the Earth's magnetic field and upper atmosphere - of space weather as well as the effects on critical infrastructure such as electrical power transmission systems. In fifty years, people will hopefully look back at the history of operational space weather prediction and credit our efforts today with solidifying the necessary developments in observational systems, full-physics models of the entire Sun-Earth system, and tools for predicting the impacts to infrastructure to protect

  3. Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reikard, Gordon

    2011-06-01

    Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.

  4. Aviation & Space Weather Policy Research: Integrating Space Weather Observations & Forecasts into Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisher, G.; Jones, B.

    2006-12-01

    The American Meteorological Society and SolarMetrics Limited are conducting a policy research project leading to recommendations that will increase the safety, reliability, and efficiency of the nation's airline operations through more effective use of space weather forecasts and information. This study, which is funded by a 3-year National Science Foundation grant, also has the support of the Federal Aviation Administration and the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) who is planning the Next Generation Air Transportation System. A major component involves interviewing and bringing together key people in the aviation industry who deal with space weather information. This research also examines public and industrial strategies and plans to respond to space weather information. The focus is to examine policy issues in implementing effective application of space weather services to the management of the nation's aviation system. The results from this project will provide government and industry leaders with additional tools and information to make effective decisions with respect to investments in space weather research and services. While space weather can impact the entire aviation industry, and this project will address national and international issues, the primary focus will be on developing a U.S. perspective for the airlines.

  5. Characteristics of Operational Space Weather Forecasting: Observations and Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berger, Thomas; Viereck, Rodney; Singer, Howard; Onsager, Terry; Biesecker, Doug; Rutledge, Robert; Hill, Steven; Akmaev, Rashid; Milward, George; Fuller-Rowell, Tim

    2015-04-01

    In contrast to research observations, models and ground support systems, operational systems are characterized by real-time data streams and run schedules, with redundant backup systems for most elements of the system. We review the characteristics of operational space weather forecasting, concentrating on the key aspects of ground- and space-based observations that feed models of the coupled Sun-Earth system at the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Building on the infrastructure of the National Weather Service, SWPC is working toward a fully operational system based on the GOES weather satellite system (constant real-time operation with back-up satellites), the newly launched DSCOVR satellite at L1 (constant real-time data network with AFSCN backup), and operational models of the heliosphere, magnetosphere, and ionosphere/thermosphere/mesophere systems run on the Weather and Climate Operational Super-computing System (WCOSS), one of the worlds largest and fastest operational computer systems that will be upgraded to a dual 2.5 Pflop system in 2016. We review plans for further operational space weather observing platforms being developed in the context of the Space Weather Operations Research and Mitigation (SWORM) task force in the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) at the White House. We also review the current operational model developments at SWPC, concentrating on the differences between the research codes and the modified real-time versions that must run with zero fault tolerance on the WCOSS systems. Understanding the characteristics and needs of the operational forecasting community is key to producing research into the coupled Sun-Earth system with maximal societal benefit.

  6. Space weather forecasting with a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schunk, R. W.; Scherliess, L.; Eccles, V.; Gardner, L. C.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.; Pi, X.; Mannucci, A. J.; Butala, M.; Wilson, B. D.; Komjathy, A.; Wang, C.; Rosen, G.

    2016-07-01

    The goal of the Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) program is to improve space weather specification and forecasting with ensemble modeling. Space weather can have detrimental effects on a variety of civilian and military systems and operations, and many of the applications pertain to the ionosphere and upper atmosphere. Space weather can affect over-the-horizon radars, HF communications, surveying and navigation systems, surveillance, spacecraft charging, power grids, pipelines, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA's) Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). Because of its importance, numerous space weather forecasting approaches are being pursued, including those involving empirical, physics-based, and data assimilation models. Clearly, if there are sufficient data, the data assimilation modeling approach is expected to be the most reliable, but different data assimilation models can produce different results. Therefore, like the meteorology community, we created a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) for the Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics (ITE) system that is based on different data assimilation models. The MEPS ensemble is composed of seven physics-based data assimilation models for the ionosphere, ionosphere-plasmasphere, thermosphere, high-latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics, and middle to low latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics. Hence, multiple data assimilation models can be used to describe each region. A selected storm event that was reconstructed with four different data assimilation models covering the middle and low latitude ionosphere is presented and discussed. In addition, the effect of different data types on the reconstructions is shown.

  7. Towards forecasting and mapping ionospheric space weather under cost actions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cander, Lj. R.

    Past COST projects 238 (PRME) and 251 (IITS) encompassed a variety of efforts to forecast and map the ionospheric plasma response to disturbed geophysical conditions over the European region. In a number of case studies they provided useful guidelines for what could be achieved by different theoretical, empirical and artificial neural network techniques. New COST 271 action on `Effects of the upper atmosphere on terrestrial and Earth-space communications' which began in the early months of the year 2000 is focusing upon efforts to map the ionospheric space weather conditions over Europe in near-real-time and to forecast these conditions a few hours ahead. The purpose of the paper is to present some of the findings from the previous COST 251 study and the plans for the new one (COST 271).

  8. The Scientific Foundations of Forecasting Magnetospheric Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eastwood, J. P.; Nakamura, R.; Turc, L.; Mejnertsen, L.; Hesse, M.

    2017-08-01

    The magnetosphere is the lens through which solar space weather phenomena are focused and directed towards the Earth. In particular, the non-linear interaction of the solar wind with the Earth's magnetic field leads to the formation of highly inhomogenous electrical currents in the ionosphere which can ultimately result in damage to and problems with the operation of power distribution networks. Since electric power is the fundamental cornerstone of modern life, the interruption of power is the primary pathway by which space weather has impact on human activity and technology. Consequently, in the context of space weather, it is the ability to predict geomagnetic activity that is of key importance. This is usually stated in terms of geomagnetic storms, but we argue that in fact it is the substorm phenomenon which contains the crucial physics, and therefore prediction of substorm occurrence, severity and duration, either within the context of a longer-lasting geomagnetic storm, but potentially also as an isolated event, is of critical importance. Here we review the physics of the magnetosphere in the frame of space weather forecasting, focusing on recent results, current understanding, and an assessment of probable future developments.

  9. An overview on the Space Weather in Latin America: from Space Research to Space Weather and its Forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Nardin, C. M.; Gonzalez-Esparza, A.; Dasso, S.

    2015-12-01

    We present an overview on the Space Weather in Latin America, highlighting the main findings from our review the recent advances in the space science investigations in Latin America focusing in the solar-terrestrial interactions, modernly named space weather, which leaded to the creation of forecast centers. Despite recognizing advances in the space research over the whole Latin America, this review is restricted to the evolution observed in three countries (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico) only, due to the fact that these countries have recently developed operational center for monitoring the space weather. The work starts with briefly mentioning the first groups that started the space science in Latin America. The current status and research interest of such groups are then described together with the most referenced works and the challenges for the next decade to solve space weather puzzles. A small inventory of the networks and collaborations being built is also described. Finally, the decision process for spinning off the space weather prediction centers from the space science groups is reported with an interpretation of the reason/opportunities that lead to it. Lastly, the constraints for the progress in the space weather monitoring, research, and forecast are listed with recommendations to overcome them.

  10. Forecasting Safe or Dangerous Space Weather from HMI Magnetograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor; Moore, Ron

    2011-01-01

    We have developed a space-weather forecasting tool using an active-region free-energy proxy that was measured from MDI line-of-sight magnetograms. To develop this forecasting tool (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather Journal, in press), we used a database of 40,000 MDI magnetograms of 1300 active regions observed by MDI during the previous solar cycle (cycle 23). From each magnetogram we measured our free-energy proxy and for each active region we determined its history of major flare, CME and Solar Particle Event (SPE) production. This database determines from the value of an active region s free-energy proxy the active region s expected rate of production of 1) major flares, 2) CMEs, 3) fast CMEs, and 4) SPEs during the next few days. This tool was delivered to NASA/SRAG in 2010. With MDI observations ending, we have to be able to use HMI magnetograms instead of MDI magnetograms. One of the difficulties is that the measured value of the free-energy proxy is sensitive to the spatial resolution of the measured magnetogram: the 0.5 /pixel resolution of HMI gives a different value for the free-energy proxy than the 2 /pixels resolution of MDI. To use our MDI-database forecasting curves until a comparably large HMI database is accumulated, we smooth HMI line-of-sight magnetograms to MDI resolution, so that we can use HMI to find the value of the free-energy proxy that MDI would have measured, and then use the forecasting curves given by the MDI database. The new version for use with HMI magnetograms was delivered to NASA/SRAG (March 2011). It can also use GONG magnetograms, as a backup.

  11. Using Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) For Space-Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bisi, M. M.; Jackson, B. V.; Fallows, R. A.; Tokumaru, M.; Jensen, E. A.; Lee, J.; Harrison, R.; Hapgood, M. A.; Wu, C.; Davies, J.

    2013-12-01

    There have been several recent space-weather events where few or no signatures of an impending Earth-affecting large-scale heliospheric structure have been detected until the structure has impacted the Earth's space environment or is at least in close proximity. In addition, some of these (for example, the late-May/early-June 2013 geomagnetic storm) have been relatively-small coronal mass ejection (CME) ';like' structures complicated by stream-interaction and/or co-rotating features. Significant progress has been made over the last few years on the implementation of, and science resulting from, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) radio remote-sensing observations of the inner heliosphere. These observations of IPS have been undertaken using the European Incoherent SCATter (EISCAT) radar and the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR) radio-telescope systems, as well as with the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (STEL/STELab) IPS arrays and the new IPS system at the Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC). LOFAR is a low-frequency pathfinder for the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), which is expected to be the World's largest ever radio-telescope system. Here, we will primarily use the University of California, San Diego (UCSD) three-dimensional (3-D) tomography by incorporating STELab IPS data along with, where data are available, the use of additional targeted individual observations of IPS from other systems as well as 3-D MHD simulations. The overall aim is to try to ascertain how well current IPS methods can be used for space-weather forecasting (and aftcasting), particularly for events seemingly missed by other extant forecasting methods.

  12. Forecasting Space Weather Events for a Neighboring World

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zheng, Yihua; Mason, Tom; Wood, Erin L.

    2015-01-01

    Shortly after NASA's Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN mission (MAVEN) spacecraft entered Mars' orbit on 21 September 2014, scientists glimpsed the Martian atmosphere's response to a front of solar energetic particles (SEPs) and an associated coronal mass ejection (CME). In response to some solar flares and CMEs, streams of SEPs burst from the solar atmosphere and are further accelerated in the interplanetary medium between the Sun and the planets. These particles deposit their energy and momentum into anything in their path, including the Martian atmosphere and MAVEN particle detectors. MAVEN scientists had been alerted to the likely CME-Mars encounter by a space weather prediction system that had its origins in space weather forecasting for Earth but now forecasts space weather for Earth's neighboring planets. The two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft and Solar Heliospheric Observatory observed a CME on 26 September, with a trajectory that suggested a Mars intercept. A computer model developed for solar wind prediction, the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil cone model [e.g., Zheng et al., 2013; Parsons et al., 2011], running in real time at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) located at NASA Goddard since 2006, showed the CME propagating in the direction of Mars (Figure 1). According to MAVEN particle detectors, the disturbance and accompanying SEP enhancement at the leading edge of the CME reached Mars at approximately 17 hours Universal Time on 29 September 2014. Such SEPs may have a profound effect on atmospheric escape - they are believed to be a possible means for driving atmospheric loss. SEPs can cause loss of Mars' upper atmosphere through several loss mechanisms including sputtering of the atmosphere. Sputtering occurs when atoms are ejected from the atmosphere due to impacts with energetic particles.

  13. Forecasting Space Weather Events for a Neighboring World

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zheng, Yihua; Mason, Tom; Wood, Erin L.

    2015-01-01

    Shortly after NASA's Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN mission (MAVEN) spacecraft entered Mars' orbit on 21 September 2014, scientists glimpsed the Martian atmosphere's response to a front of solar energetic particles (SEPs) and an associated coronal mass ejection (CME). In response to some solar flares and CMEs, streams of SEPs burst from the solar atmosphere and are further accelerated in the interplanetary medium between the Sun and the planets. These particles deposit their energy and momentum into anything in their path, including the Martian atmosphere and MAVEN particle detectors. MAVEN scientists had been alerted to the likely CME-Mars encounter by a space weather prediction system that had its origins in space weather forecasting for Earth but now forecasts space weather for Earth's neighboring planets. The two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft and Solar Heliospheric Observatory observed a CME on 26 September, with a trajectory that suggested a Mars intercept. A computer model developed for solar wind prediction, the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil cone model [e.g., Zheng et al., 2013; Parsons et al., 2011], running in real time at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) located at NASA Goddard since 2006, showed the CME propagating in the direction of Mars (Figure 1). According to MAVEN particle detectors, the disturbance and accompanying SEP enhancement at the leading edge of the CME reached Mars at approximately 17 hours Universal Time on 29 September 2014. Such SEPs may have a profound effect on atmospheric escape - they are believed to be a possible means for driving atmospheric loss. SEPs can cause loss of Mars' upper atmosphere through several loss mechanisms including sputtering of the atmosphere. Sputtering occurs when atoms are ejected from the atmosphere due to impacts with energetic particles.

  14. Sol-Terra - AN Operational Space Weather Forecasting Model Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bisi, M. M.; Lawrence, G.; Pidgeon, A.; Reid, S.; Hapgood, M. A.; Bogdanova, Y.; Byrne, J.; Marsh, M. S.; Jackson, D.; Gibbs, M.

    2015-12-01

    The SOL-TERRA project is a collaboration between RHEA Tech, the Met Office, and RAL Space funded by the UK Space Agency. The goal of the SOL-TERRA project is to produce a Roadmap for a future coupled Sun-to-Earth operational space weather forecasting system covering domains from the Sun down to the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere and neutral atmosphere. The first stage of SOL-TERRA is underway and involves reviewing current models that could potentially contribute to such a system. Within a given domain, the various space weather models will be assessed how they could contribute to such a coupled system. This will be done both by reviewing peer reviewed papers, and via direct input from the model developers to provide further insight. Once the models have been reviewed then the optimal set of models for use in support of forecast-based SWE modelling will be selected, and a Roadmap for the implementation of an operational forecast-based SWE modelling framework will be prepared. The Roadmap will address the current modelling capability, knowledge gaps and further work required, and also the implementation and maintenance of the overall architecture and environment that the models will operate within. The SOL-TERRA project will engage with external stakeholders in order to ensure independently that the project remains on track to meet its original objectives. A group of key external stakeholders have been invited to provide their domain-specific expertise in reviewing the SOL-TERRA project at critical stages of Roadmap preparation; namely at the Mid-Term Review, and prior to submission of the Final Report. This stakeholder input will ensure that the SOL-TERRA Roadmap will be enhanced directly through the input of modellers and end-users. The overall goal of the SOL-TERRA project is to develop a Roadmap for an operational forecast-based SWE modelling framework with can be implemented within a larger subsequent activity. The SOL-TERRA project is supported within

  15. Space Weather Forecasts Driven by the ADAPT Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henney, C. J.; Arge, C. N.; Shurkin, K.; Schooley, A. K.; Hock, R. A.; White, S.

    2015-12-01

    In this presentation, we highlight recent progress to forecast key space weather parameters with the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport) model. Driven by a magnetic flux transport model, ADAPT evolves global solar magnetic maps forward 1 to 7 days in the future to provide realistic estimates of the solar near-side field distribution used to forecast the solar wind, F10.7 (i.e., the solar 10.7 cm radio flux), extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and far ultraviolet (FUV) irradiance. Input to the ADAPT model includes solar near-side estimates of the inferred photospheric magnetic field from space-based (i.e., HMI) and ground-based (e.g., GONG & VSM) instruments. We summarize the recent findings that: 1) the sum of the absolute value of strong magnetic fields, associated with sunspots, is shown to correlate well with the observed daily F10.7 variability (Henney et al. 2012); and 2) the sum of the absolute value of weak magnetic fields, associated with plage regions, is shown to correlate well with EUV and FUV irradiance variability (Henney et al. 2015). In addition, recent progress to utilize the ADAPT global maps as input to the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal and solar wind model is presented. We also discuss the challenges of observing less than half of the solar surface at any given time and the need for future magnetograph instruments near L1 and L5.

  16. Generation of a Solar Wind Ensemble for Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hassan, E.; Morley, S.; Steinberg, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    Knowing the upstream solar wind conditions is essential in forecasting the variations in the geomangetic field and the status of the Earth's ionosphere. Most data-driven simulations or data-assimilation codes, used for space weather forecasting, are based on the solar wind measurements at 1 AU, or more specifically at the first Lagrangian orbit (L1), such as observations from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). However, L1 measurements may not represent the solar wind conditions just outside the magnetosphere. As a result, time-series measurements from L1 by themselves are not adequate to run simulations to derive probabilistic forecasts of the magnetosphere and ionosphere. To obtain confidence levels and uncertainty estimates, a solar wind ensemble data set is desirable. Therefore we used three years of measurements atACE advected using the flat delay method to the Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP8) spacecraft location. Then, we compared both measurements to establish Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) functions for IMP8 measurements based on ACE measurements. In addition, we used a 4-categorization scheme to sort the incoming solar wind into ejecta, coronal-hole-origin, sector-reversal-regions, and streamer-belt-origin categories at both ACE and IMP8. We established the KDE functions for each category and compared with the uncategorized KDE functions. The location of the IMP8 spacecraft allows us to use these KDE functions to generate ensemble of solar wind data close to Earth's magnetopause. The ensemble can then be used to forecast the state of the geomagnetic field and the ionosphere.

  17. Space Weather Forecasting and Research at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aronne, M.

    2015-12-01

    The Space Weather Research Center (SWRC), within the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), provides experimental research forecasts and analysis for NASA's robotic mission operators. Space weather conditions are monitored to provide advance warning and forecasts based on observations and modeling using the integrated Space Weather Analysis Network (iSWA). Space weather forecasters come from a variety of backgrounds, ranging from modelers to astrophysicists to undergraduate students. This presentation will discuss space weather operations and research from an undergraduate perspective. The Space Weather Research, Education, and Development Initiative (SW REDI) is the starting point for many undergraduate opportunities in space weather forecasting and research. Space weather analyst interns play an active role year-round as entry-level space weather analysts. Students develop the technical and professional skills to forecast space weather through a summer internship that includes a two week long space weather boot camp, mentorship, poster session, and research opportunities. My unique development of research projects includes studying high speed stream events as well as a study of 20 historic, high-impact solar energetic particle events. This unique opportunity to combine daily real-time analysis with related research prepares students for future careers in Heliophysics.

  18. Integration of Space Weather Forecasts into Space Protection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reeves, G.

    2012-09-01

    How would the US respond to a clandestine attack that disabled one of our satellites? How would we know that it was an attack, not a natural failure? The goal of space weather programs as applied to space protection are simple: Provide a rapid and reliable assessment of the probability that satellite or system failure was caused by the space environment. Achieving that goal is not as simple. However, great strides are being made on a number of fronts. We will report on recent successes in providing rapid, automated anomaly/attack assessment for the penetrating radiation environment in the Earth's radiation belts. We have previously reported on the Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) that was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to assess hazards posed by the natural and by nuclear radiation belts. This year we will report on recent developments that are moving this program from the research, test, and evaluation phases to real-time implementation and application. We will discuss the challenges of leveraging space environment data sets for applications that are beyond the scope of mission requirements, the challenges of moving data from where they exist to where they are needed, the challenges of turning data into actionable information, and how those challenges were overcome. We will discuss the state-of-the-art as it exists in 2012 including the new capabilities that have been enabled and the limitations that still exist. We will also discuss how currently untapped data resources could advance the state-of-the-art and the future steps for implementing automatic real-time anomaly forensics.

  19. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  20. Monitoring and Forecasting Space Weather in Geospace Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lyatsky, Wladislaw; Khazanov, George V.

    2008-01-01

    For improving the reliability of Space Weather prediction, we developed a new, Polar Magnetic (PM) index of geomagnetic activity, which shows high correlation with both upstream solar wind data and related events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. Similarly to the existing polar cap PC index, the new PM index was computed from data from two near-pole geomagnetic observatories; however, the method for computing the PM index is different. The high correlation of the PM index with both solar wind data and events in Geospace environment makes possible to improve significantly forecasting geomagnetic disturbances and such important parameters as the cross-polar-cap voltage and global Joule heating, which play an important role in the development of geomagnetic, ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances. We tested the PM index for 10-year period (1995-2004). The correlation between PM index and upstream solar wind data for these years is very high (the average correlation coefficient R approximately equal to 0.86). The PM index also shows the high correlation with the cross-polar-cap voltage and hemispheric Joule heating (the correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values of these parameters approximately equal to 0.9), which results in significant increasing the prediction reliability of these parameters. Using the PM index of geomagnetic activity provides a significant increase in the forecasting reliability of geomagnetic disturbances and related events in Geospace environment. The PM index may be also used as an important input parameter in modeling ionospheric, magnetospheric, and thermospheric processes.

  1. Monitoring and Forecasting Space Weather in Geospace Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lyatsky, Wladislaw; Khazanov, George V.

    2008-01-01

    For improving the reliability of Space Weather prediction, we developed a new, Polar Magnetic (PM) index of geomagnetic activity, which shows high correlation with both upstream solar wind data and related events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. Similarly to the existing polar cap PC index, the new PM index was computed from data from two near-pole geomagnetic observatories; however, the method for computing the PM index is different. The high correlation of the PM index with both solar wind data and events in Geospace environment makes possible to improve significantly forecasting geomagnetic disturbances and such important parameters as the cross-polar-cap voltage and global Joule heating, which play an important role in the development of geomagnetic, ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances. We tested the PM index for 10-year period (1995-2004). The correlation between PM index and upstream solar wind data for these years is very high (the average correlation coefficient R approximately equal to 0.86). The PM index also shows the high correlation with the cross-polar-cap voltage and hemispheric Joule heating (the correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values of these parameters approximately equal to 0.9), which results in significant increasing the prediction reliability of these parameters. Using the PM index of geomagnetic activity provides a significant increase in the forecasting reliability of geomagnetic disturbances and related events in Geospace environment. The PM index may be also used as an important input parameter in modeling ionospheric, magnetospheric, and thermospheric processes.

  2. Improvement of Space Weather Forecasting in Solar Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nitta, N.

    2014-12-01

    Solar Cycle 24 has not produced extreme space weather events at Earthcomparable to the Halloween 2003 events. However, there have been anumber of geomagnetic storms more intense than Dst of 100 nT as wellas several major solar energetic particle (SEP) events at Earth.Before predicting geomagnetic storms and radiation storms well inadvance, it is necessary to make a firm link of solar activity,notably coronal mass ejections (CMEs), with interplanetary CMEs(ICMEs) and shock waves. This cycle has benefitted from the SolarDynamics Observatory that provides uninterrupted and high-qualityfull-disk images at Earth, and the Solar Terrestrial RelationsObservatory that has observed CMEs away from the Sun-Earth line andunambiguously isolated those that were directed toward Earth. Thispresentation aims at evaluating how these observations have refinedour understanding of the origins of ICMEs and helped models reproducethe arrival times of the disturbances and the occurrence and magnitudeof SEP events. We also discuss what may be critically missing and yetessential for achieving useful predictions in the future. A review isgiven as to how the forecasts on the basis of solar and near-Sunobservations have fared against the actual ICMEs and shocks, and howmany of the latter have not been properly handled because of noobvious CMEs. A similar attempt is made for the occurrence andmagnitude of SEP events. It is important to critically analyze theinadequate forecasts (or just expectations) in terms of uncertaintiesfrom observations and modeling.

  3. Tools and Products of Real-Time Modeling: Opportunities for Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael

    2009-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second CCMC activity is to support Space Weather forecasting at national Space Weather Forecasting Centers. This second activity involves model evaluations, model transitions to operations, and the development of draft Space Weather forecasting tools. This presentation will focus on the last element. Specifically, we will discuss present capabilities, and the potential to derive further tools. These capabilities will be interpreted in the context of a broad-based, bootstrapping activity for modern Space Weather forecasting.

  4. New Space Weather Forecasting at NOAA with Michigan's Geospace Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singer, H. J.; Millward, G. H.; Balch, C. C.; Cash, M. D.; Onsager, T. G.; Toth, G.; Welling, D. T.; Gombosi, T. I.

    2016-12-01

    We will present first results from the University of Michigan's Geospace model that is transitioning, during 2016, from a research capability into operations at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. The first generation of space weather products from this model will be described. These initial products will support power grid operators, as well as other users, with both global and regional, short-term predictions of geomagnetic activity. The Geospace model is a coupled system including three components: the BATS-R-US magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the magnetosphere; the Ridley ionosphere electrodynamics model (RIM); and the Rice Convection Model (RCM), an inner magnetosphere ring-current model developed at Rice University. The model is driven by solar wind data from a satellite at L1 (now NOAA's DSCOVR satellite) and F10.7, a proxy for solar extreme ultra-violet radiation. The Geospace model runs continuously, driven by the 1-minute cadence real-time L1 data that is propagated to the inflow boundary of the MHD code. The model steps back to an earlier time and then continues forward if high-speed solar wind overtakes slower solar wind. This mode of operation is unique among the models at NOAA's National Center for Environment Prediction's Central Operations (NCO), and it is also different from the typical scientific simulation mode. All of this work has involved 3D graphical model displays and validation tools that are being developed to support forecasters and web-based external users. Lessons learned during the transition process will be described, as well as the iterative process that occurs between Research and Operations and the scientific challenges for future model and product improvements.

  5. Solar and space weather phenomenological forecasting using pattern recognition operators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosa, R.; Ramos, F.; Vijaykumar, N.; Andrade, M.; Fernandes, F.; Cecatto, J.; Sharma, A.; Sawant, H.

    Yohkoh, SOHO and HESSI satellites have shown morphological change of the coronal magnetic structures in several scales. Particularly, the soft X ray images- have revealed the existence of dynamic structures with magnetic field configuration varying from regular to complex patterns. In order to characterize the spatio- temporal evolution of such structures, a methodology is proposed in terms of matrix computational operators to quantify the amount of symmetry breaking along the gradient field evolution of the sequence of images. Characterization of symmetry breaking in the gradient field of the energy envelope has been an useful tool to understand complex plasma regimes. In this paper we introduce the application of the Gradient Pattern Analysis (GPA) technique as a new matrix computational operator for spatio-temporal plasma gradient field analysis. This operator yields a measure of the symmetry breaking and phase disorder parameters responding to the active region plasma regimes. In order to characterize the GPA performance into the context of solar physics, we apply this technique on X-ray emission measurement from solar coronal plasma observed by means of Yohkoh satellite. The preliminary results and interpretations suggest a new phenomenological approach for the spatio- temporal evolution of soft X ray active regions, mainly those whose morphology- goes from a regular to a complex magnetic configuration a companied by thec increase of the dissipated energy. We discuss the importance of this semi-empirical modelling for space weather forecasting into the context of solar-terrestrial relationship.

  6. Cone Model for Halo CMEs: Application to Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xie, Hong; Ofman, Leon; Lawrence, Gareth

    2004-01-01

    In this study, we present an innovative analytical method to determine the angular width and propagation orientation of halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The relation of CME actual speed with apparent speed and its components measured at different position angle has been investigated. The present work is based on the cone model proposed by Zhao et al. We have improved this model by: (1) eliminating the ambiguity via a new analytical approach, (2) using direct measurements of projection onto the plane of the sky (POS), and (3) determining the actual radial speeds from projection speeds at different position angles to clarify the uncertainty of projection speeds in previous empirical models. Our analytical approach allows us to use coronagraph data to determine accurately the geometrical features of POS projections, such as major axis, minor axis, and the displacement of the center of its projection, and to determine the angular width and orientation of a given halo CME. Our approach allows for the first time the determination of the actual CME speed, width, and source location by using coronagraph data quantitatively and consistently. The method greatly enhances the accuracy of the derived geometrical and kinematical properties of halo CMEs, and can be used to optimize Space Weather forecasts. The applied model predications are in good agreement with observations.

  7. Cone Model for Halo CMEs: Application to Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xie, Hong; Ofman, Leon; Lawrence, Gareth

    2004-01-01

    In this study, we present an innovative analytical method to determine the angular width and propagation orientation of halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The relation of CME actual speed with apparent speed and its components measured at different position angle has been investigated. The present work is based on the cone model proposed by Zhao et al. We have improved this model by: (1) eliminating the ambiguity via a new analytical approach, (2) using direct measurements of projection onto the plane of the sky (POS), and (3) determining the actual radial speeds from projection speeds at different position angles to clarify the uncertainty of projection speeds in previous empirical models. Our analytical approach allows us to use coronagraph data to determine accurately the geometrical features of POS projections, such as major axis, minor axis, and the displacement of the center of its projection, and to determine the angular width and orientation of a given halo CME. Our approach allows for the first time the determination of the actual CME speed, width, and source location by using coronagraph data quantitatively and consistently. The method greatly enhances the accuracy of the derived geometrical and kinematical properties of halo CMEs, and can be used to optimize Space Weather forecasts. The applied model predications are in good agreement with observations.

  8. Realtime Space Weather Forecasts Via Android Phone App

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crowley, G.; Haacke, B.; Reynolds, A.

    2010-12-01

    For the past several years, ASTRA has run a first-principles global 3-D fully coupled thermosphere-ionosphere model in real-time for space weather applications. The model is the Thermosphere-Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIMEGCM). ASTRA also runs the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) in real-time. Using AMIE to drive the high latitude inputs to the TIMEGCM produces high fidelity simulations of the global thermosphere and ionosphere. These simulations can be viewed on the Android Phone App developed by ASTRA. The SpaceWeather app for the Android operating system is free and can be downloaded from the Google Marketplace. We present the current status of realtime thermosphere-ionosphere space-weather forcasting and discuss the way forward. We explore some of the issues in maintaining real-time simulations with assimilative data feeds in a quasi-operational setting. We also discuss some of the challenges of presenting large amounts of data on a smartphone. The ASTRA SpaceWeather app includes the broadest and most unique range of space weather data yet to be found on a single smartphone app. This is a one-stop-shop for space weather and the only app where you can get access to ASTRA’s real-time predictions of the global thermosphere and ionosphere, high latitude convection and geomagnetic activity. Because of the phone's GPS capability, users can obtain location specific vertical profiles of electron density, temperature, and time-histories of various parameters from the models. The SpaceWeather app has over 9000 downloads, 30 reviews, and a following of active users. It is clear that real-time space weather on smartphones is here to stay, and must be included in planning for any transition to operational space-weather use.

  9. Space Weather Education: Learning to Forecast at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wold, A.

    2015-12-01

    Enhancing space weather education is important to space science endeavors. While participating in the Space Weather Research, Education and Development Initiative (SW REDI) Bootcamp and working as a Space Weather Analyst Intern, several innovative technologies and tools were integral to my learning and understanding of space weather analysis and forecasting. Two of the tools utilized in learning about space weather were the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA) and the Space Weather Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (DONKI). iSWA, a web-based dissemination system, hosts many state-of-the-art space weather models as well as real time space weather data from spacecraft such as Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Advanced Composition Explorer. As a customizable tool that operates in real-time while providing access also to historical data, iSWA proved essential in my understanding the drivers and impacts of space weather. DONKI was instrumental in accessing historical space weather events to understand the connections between solar phenomena and their effects on Earth environments. DONKI operates as a database of space weather events including linkages between causes and effects of space weather events. iSWA and DONKI are tools available also to the public. They not only enrich the space weather learning process but also allow researchers and model developers access to essential heliophysics and magnetospheric data.

  10. Verification of space weather forecasting at the Regional Warning Center in Belgium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Devos, Andy; Verbeeck, Cis; Robbrecht, Eva

    2014-10-01

    The Solar Influences Data analysis Center (SIDC) in Brussels at the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB) has been providing daily space weather forecasts for more than a decade. A verification analysis was applied to evaluate the performance of the SIDC forecasts of fundamental space weather parameters such as the F10.7 radio flux, solar flare activity, and local geomagnetic index. Strengths and weaknesses are determined compared to common numerical models. Descriptive model statistics, common verification measures, error analysis and conditional plots related to forecasts and observations are presented. The verification analysis methods have been designed such that future improvements and additions can easily be included, for example with new forecasting models. The SIDC forecast (together with the persistence model) achieves the best performance for forecasting F10.7 on day 1, but has potential for improvement for a larger lead time mainly by applying estimates from the persistence and corrected recurrence models. The persistence model is superior for the forecast of flares, though corrected recurrence models are slightly better in foreseeing M- and X-class flares and the SIDC forecast estimates B- and C-class flares very well. The SIDC forecast scores better than all models in forecasting the local K-index. It best reproduces observations in the range of K = 2-4, but underestimates larger K values. The SIDC forecast provides a distribution that best matches the observations of the K-index. The analysis presented here demonstrates the influence of solar activity on the confidence level of the forecasts, as well as the hinted influence of the forecaster on duty due to the subjective nature of forecasting. The output aids to identify the strong and weak points of the SIDC forecast as well as those of the models considered. Though the presented analysis needs further extension, it already illustrates the opportunity to regularly reevaluate space weather forecasts and

  11. Evaluating space weather forecasts of geomagnetic activity from a user perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomson, A. W. P.

    2000-12-01

    Decision Theory can be used as a tool for discussing the relative costs of complacency and false alarms with users of space weather forecasts. We describe a new metric for the value of space weather forecasts, derived from Decision Theory. In particular we give equations for the level of accuracy that a forecast must exceed in order to be useful to a specific customer. The technique is illustrated by simplified example forecasts for global geomagnetic activity and for geophysical exploration and power grid management in the British Isles.

  12. State-of-the-art Space Weather Forecast with AFFECTS and HELCATS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bothmer, Volker; Affects Team; Helcats Team

    2016-04-01

    The space weather projects fostered through the European Union FP7 and Horizon 2020 programs have opened up new horizons in the field of space weather research and have facilitated state-of-the-art-forecasts. Here we present an overview on the services and space weather forecasts the EU FP7 project AFFECTS (Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communications Through Space) is providing and how the precision of the forecast is qualitatively greatly enhanced by new results derived from the EU FP7 project HELCATS (Heliospheric Cataloguing, Analysis, and Techniques Services). The forecast techniques base on near-real time multipoint analysis of coronal mass ejections observed by SOHO and STEREO and simulations of their Sun to Earth evolution.

  13. Activities of the Japanese space weather forecast center at Communications Research Laboratory.

    PubMed

    Watari, Shinichi; Tomita, Fumihiko

    2002-12-01

    The International Space Environment Service (ISES) is an international organization for space weather forecasts and belongs to the International Union of Radio Science (URSI). There are eleven ISES forecast centers in the world, and Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) runs the Japanese one. We make forecasts on the space environment and deliver them over the phones and through the Internet. Our forecasts could be useful for human activities in space. Currently solar activity is near maximum phase of the solar cycle 23. We report the several large disturbances of space environment occurred in 2001, during which low-latitude auroras were observed several times in Japan.

  14. Using Flow Charts to Visualize the Decision-Making Process in Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aung, M. T. Y.; Myat, T.; Zheng, Y.; Mays, M. L.; Ngwira, C.; Damas, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    Our society today relies heavily on technological systems such as satellites, navigation systems, power grids and aviation. These systems are very sensitive to space weather disturbances. When Earth-directed space weather driven by the Sun arrives at the Earth, it causes changes to the Earth's radiation environment and the magnetosphere. Strong disturbances in the magnetosphere of the Earth are responsible for geomagnetic storms that can last from hours to days depending on strength of storms. Geomagnetic storms can severely impact critical infrastructure on Earth, such as the electric power grid, and Solar Energetic Particles that can endanger life in outer space. How can we lessen these adverse effects? They can be lessened through the early warning signals sent by space weather forecasters before CME or high-speed stream arrives. A space weather forecaster's duty is to send predicted notifications to high-tech industries and NASA missions so that they could take extra measures for protection. NASA space weather forecasters make prediction decisions by following certain steps and processes from the time an event occurs at the sun all the way to the impact locations. However, there has never been a tool that helps these forecasters visualize the decision process until now. A flow chart is created to help forecasters visualize the decision process. This flow chart provides basic knowledge of space weather and can be used to train future space weather forecasters. It also helps to cut down the training period and increase consistency in forecasting. The flow chart is also a great reference for people who are already familiar with space weather.

  15. Using Science Data and Models for Space Weather Forecasting - Challenges and Opportunities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael; Pulkkinen, Antti; Zheng, Yihua; Maddox, Marlo; Berrios, David; Taktakishvili, Sandro; Kuznetsova, Masha; Chulaki, Anna; Lee, Hyesook; Mullinix, Rick; hide

    2012-01-01

    Space research, and, consequently, space weather forecasting are immature disciplines. Scientific knowledge is accumulated frequently, which changes our understanding or how solar eruptions occur, and of how they impact targets near or on the Earth, or targets throughout the heliosphere. Along with continuous progress in understanding, space research and forecasting models are advancing rapidly in capability, often providing substantially increases in space weather value over time scales of less than a year. Furthermore, the majority of space environment information available today is, particularly in the solar and heliospheric domains, derived from research missions. An optimal forecasting environment needs to be flexible enough to benefit from this rapid development, and flexible enough to adapt to evolving data sources, many of which may also stem from non-US entities. This presentation will analyze the experiences obtained by developing and operating both a forecasting service for NASA, and an experimental forecasting system for Geomagnetically Induced Currents.

  16. A Space Weather Forecasting System with Multiple Satellites Based on a Self-Recognizing Network

    PubMed Central

    Tokumitsu, Masahiro; Ishida, Yoshiteru

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a space weather forecasting system at geostationary orbit for high-energy electron flux (>2 MeV). The forecasting model involves multiple sensors on multiple satellites. The sensors interconnect and evaluate each other to predict future conditions at geostationary orbit. The proposed forecasting model is constructed using a dynamic relational network for sensor diagnosis and event monitoring. The sensors of the proposed model are located at different positions in space. The satellites for solar monitoring equip with monitoring devices for the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind speed. The satellites orbit near the Earth monitoring high-energy electron flux. We investigate forecasting for typical two examples by comparing the performance of two models with different numbers of sensors. We demonstrate the prediction by the proposed model against coronal mass ejections and a coronal hole. This paper aims to investigate a possibility of space weather forecasting based on the satellite network with in-situ sensing. PMID:24803190

  17. From Early Exploration to Space Weather Forecasts: Canada's Geomagnetic Odyssey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lam, Hing-Lan

    2011-05-01

    Canada is a region ideally suited for the study of space weather: The north magnetic pole is encompassed within its territory, and the auroral oval traverses its vast landmass from east to west. Magnetic field lines link the country directly to the outer magnetosphere. In light of this geographic suitability, it has been a Canadian tradition to install ground monitors to remotely sense the space above Canadian territory. The beginning of this tradition dates back to 1840, when Edward Sabine, a key figure in the “magnetic crusade” to establish magnetic observatories throughout the British Empire in the nineteenth century, founded the first Canadian magnetic observatory on what is now the campus of the University of Toronto, 27 years before the birth of Canada. This observatory, which later became the Toronto Magnetic and Meteorological Observatory, marked the beginning of the Canadian heritage of installing magnetic stations and other ground instruments in the years to come. This extensive network of ground-based measurement devices, coupled with space-based measurements in more modern times, has enabled Canadian researchers to contribute significantly to studies related to space weather.

  18. Cosmic Rays and Space Weather Effects: Methods of Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorman, L. I.

    2008-09-01

    This paper consists of 5 parts: 1. Cosmic rays (CR) and space weather influence on global climate change; 2. Global natural disaster from great magnetic storms connected with big CR Forbush-decreases and their assessment by using world-wide network of CR stations; 3. Global natural disaster from great intense radiation hazards for astronauts, crew and passengers on regular airline flights, for people on the ground due to great solar flare CR events; 4. The great hazard for the Earth's civilization from the interaction of a dust-molecular cloud with the Solar system; 5. Great radiation hazard for the Earth's civilization from CR particles generated in a nearby Supernova Explosion.

  19. A NOAA/SWPC Perspective on Space Weather Forecasts That Fail

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biesecker, D. A.

    2014-12-01

    The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) at NOAA is the Official US source for space weather watches, warning and alerts. These alerts are provided to a breadth of customers covering a range of industries, including electric utilities, airlines, emergency managers, and users of precision GPS to name a few. This talk will review the current tools used by SWPC to forecast geomagnetic storms, solar flares, and solar energetic particle events and present the SWPC performance in each of these areas. We will include a discussion of the current limitations and examples of events that proved difficult to forecast.

  20. Models and applications for space weather forecasting and analysis at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuznetsova, Maria

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) was established at the dawn of the new millennium as a long-term flexible solution to the problem of transition of progress in space environment modeling to operational space weather forecasting. CCMC hosts an expanding collection of state-of-the-art space weather models developed by the international space science community. Over the years the CCMC acquired the unique experience in preparing complex models and model chains for operational environment and developing and maintaining custom displays and powerful web-based systems and tools ready to be used by researchers, space weather service providers and decision makers. In support of space weather needs of NASA users CCMC is developing highly-tailored applications and services that target specific orbits or locations in space and partnering with NASA mission specialists on linking CCMC space environment modeling with impacts on biological and technological systems in space. Confidence assessment of model predictions is an essential element of space environment modeling. CCMC facilitates interaction between model owners and users in defining physical parameters and metrics formats relevant to specific applications and leads community efforts to quantify models ability to simulate and predict space environment events. Interactive on-line model validation systems developed at CCMC make validation a seamless part of model development circle. The talk will showcase innovative solutions for space weather research, validation, anomaly analysis and forecasting and review on-going community-wide model validation initiatives enabled by CCMC applications.

  1. Space Weather Forecasting for Practical Applications in Africa - the SANSA Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kosch, M. J.; Habarulema, J. B.; Tshisaphungo, M.; Nxele, T.; Nndanganeni, R.; Lotz, S.; Cilliers, P. J.; McKinnell, L. A.

    2016-12-01

    The South African National Space Agency (SANSA) provides routine space weather warnings and forecasts for a variety of applications such as High Frequency propagation predictions for the South African National Defence Force as well as civilian aviation applications and geomagnetically-induced current (GIC) predictions for the national power grid provider. The forecasts are produced by combining freely-available satellite data as well as bespoke ground-based data from instruments maintained by SANSA in southern Africa, Gough and Marion islands as well as Antarctica. SANSA is actively working towards improved impact predictors for all its applications, e.g. GIC forecasting. Our current and planned future activities will be described.

  2. Forecasting Space Weather in the Upper Atmosphere: From Science to Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mannucci, A. J.; Meng, X.; Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Tsurutani, B.; Wang, C.; Rosen, G.; Sharma, S.

    2016-12-01

    An objective of the original National Space Weather Program Strategic Plan (1999) was to foster science that has applications for the benefit of society. It was envisaged that scientific knowledge would lead to predictability of impactful space weather phenomena, similarly to what has occurred with numerical prediction of tropospheric weather. The link between scientific knowledge and predictability of natural phenomena is not a straightforward one, however, as the tropospheric community learned when trying to forecast weather systems several days ahead - the limitations of which led to the discovery of "chaos". In the thermosphere-ionosphere domain of space weather, the global behavior of the system is strongly dependent on driving from above and below, creating challenges to accurate prediction. We will describe our effort, part of the NASA/NSF Partnership For Collaborative Space Weather Modeling, to develop methods of improving predictive skill as scientific knowledge increases. Our approach is meant to succeed despite varying degrees of scientific understanding, and despite environmental factors that are often poorly constrained. Rather than focusing exclusively on increasing the complexity of, or coupling between models, we are developing forecasting tools that help understand what limits predictability in different situations. We will describe our algorithms for "forecast variables" (FVs) that are quantities derived from model outputs and observations. FVs are designed to provide insight into what limits predictive skill under geomagnetic storm conditions. We will present assessments of simulated "forecasts" for several upper atmosphere storms initiated by high-speed solar wind streams and coronal mass ejections, using the first principles-based Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM). We will describe our approaches to data-driven and statistical forecasting, which serve as benchmarks that physics-based forecasts should improve upon.

  3. The Art and Science of Long-Range Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.

    2006-01-01

    Long-range space weather forecasts are akin to seasonal forecasts of terrestrial weather. We don t expect to forecast individual events but we do hope to forecast the underlying level of activity important for satellite operations and mission pl&g. Forecasting space weather conditions years or decades into the future has traditionally been based on empirical models of the solar cycle. Models for the shape of the cycle as a function of its amplitude become reliable once the amplitude is well determined - usually two to three years after minimum. Forecasting the amplitude of a cycle well before that time has been more of an art than a science - usually based on cycle statistics and trends. Recent developments in dynamo theory -the theory explaining the generation of the Sun s magnetic field and the solar activity cycle - have now produced models with predictive capabilities. Testing these models with historical sunspot cycle data indicates that these predictions may be highly reliable one, or even two, cycles into the future.

  4. The Art and Science of Long-Range Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.

    2006-01-01

    Long-range space weather forecasts are akin to seasonal forecasts of terrestrial weather. We don t expect to forecast individual events but we do hope to forecast the underlying level of activity important for satellite operations and mission pl&g. Forecasting space weather conditions years or decades into the future has traditionally been based on empirical models of the solar cycle. Models for the shape of the cycle as a function of its amplitude become reliable once the amplitude is well determined - usually two to three years after minimum. Forecasting the amplitude of a cycle well before that time has been more of an art than a science - usually based on cycle statistics and trends. Recent developments in dynamo theory -the theory explaining the generation of the Sun s magnetic field and the solar activity cycle - have now produced models with predictive capabilities. Testing these models with historical sunspot cycle data indicates that these predictions may be highly reliable one, or even two, cycles into the future.

  5. Predicting and Mitigating Socioeconomic Impacts of Extreme Space Weather: Benefits of Improved Forecasts (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanekal, S. G.; Baker, D. N.

    2013-12-01

    Vulnerability of society to severe space weather is an issue of increasing worldwide concern. A notable example is that electric power networks connecting widely separated geographic areas may incur debilitating damage induced by geomagnetic storms. The conclusion of a recent National Research Council report was that harsh space weather events can cause tens of millions to many billions of dollars of damage to space and ground-based assets during major solar storms. The most extreme events could cause months-long power outages and could cost in excess of one trillion dollars. In this presentation, we discuss broad socioeconomic impacts of space weather and also discuss the immense potential benefits of improved space weather forecasts. Such forecasts would be based on continuous observations of disturbances on the Sun and would take advantage of our increased understanding of the Earth's space environmental conditions and the causative solar drivers. We consider scenarios of how such observation-based forecasts could be used most effectively by policy makers and technology management officials.

  6. Forecasting Space Weather in the Upper Atmosphere and Ionosphere (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solomon, S. C.

    2013-12-01

    The feasibility of performing meaningful forecasts of the state of the thermosphere and ionosphere depends on the time scales of interest. Whether accomplished using empirical models derived from climatological information, or using numerical models describing the physics and dynamics of the coupled system, the reality of any forecast is dependent on the specification of the initial state, and the knowledge of the parameters that will impact it in the future. The zero-time forecast, or nowcast, is eminently possible, and basic systems have been implemented operationally using data assimilation techniques. This is considerably more advanced with respect to the ionosphere, because there are more ionospheric data currently available. But a fully coupled thermosphere is crucial for accomplishing accurate ionospheric specification and forecast, because the ionosphere responds strongly to thermospheric drivers, and because the effects of changing thermospheric dynamics are persistent. The prospects for short term (less than an hour) forecasts are also good. The 30 to 90 minute delay between measurements near the Sun-Earth L1 saddle point, and the arrival of solar wind and interplanetary field perturbations at the magnetopause, can be exploited to predict the effects of geomagnetic disturbances on the thermosphere-ionosphere. Lower atmosphere meteorology fields are sufficiently known and change slowly on these time scales, as do solar irradiance drivers (except during flares) so the boundary conditions to full-physics numerical models can be specified. The initial state of the system can be effectively characterized by data assimilation models. Sophisticated physical models using efficient parallel algorithms are available. Therefore, there are no fundamental obstacles to implementation of short-term thermosphere-ionosphere forecasting, only programmatic or technical ones. On longer time scales, magnetospheric forecasting is contingent on meaningful prediction of the

  7. Space Weather Products and Tools Used in Auroral Monitoring and Forecasting at CCMC/SWRC

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zheng, Yihua; Rastaetter, Lutz

    2015-01-01

    Key points discussed in this chapter are (1) the importance of aurora research to scientific advances and space weather applications, (2) space weather products at CCMC that are relevant to aurora monitoring and forecasting, and (3) the need for more effort from the whole community to achieve a better and long-lead-time forecast of auroral activity. Aurora, as manifestations of solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling that occurs in a region of space that is relatively easy to access for sounding rockets, satellites, and other types of observational platforms, serves as a natural laboratory for studying the underlying physics of the complex system. From a space weather application perspective, auroras can cause surface charging of technological assets passing through the region, result in scintillation effects affecting communication and navigation, and cause radar cluttering that hinders military and civilian applications. Indirectly, an aurora and its currents can induce geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) on the ground, which poses major concerns for the wellbeing and operation of power grids, particularly during periods of intense geomagnetic activity. In addition, accurate auroral forecasting is desired for auroral tourism. In this chapter, we first review some of the existing auroral models and discuss past validation efforts. Such efforts are crucial in transitioning a model(s) from research to operations and for further model improvement and development that also benefits scientific endeavors. Then we will focus on products and tools that are used for auroral monitoring and forecasting at the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). As part of the CCMC (Community Coordinated Modeling Center), SWRC has been providing space weather services since 2010.

  8. Weather assessment and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    Data management program activities centered around the analyses of selected far-term Office of Applications (OA) objectives, with the intent of determining if significant data-related problems would be encountered and if so what alternative solutions would be possible. Three far-term (1985 and beyond) OA objectives selected for analyses as having potential significant data problems were large-scale weather forecasting, local weather and severe storms forecasting, and global marine weather forecasting. An overview of general weather forecasting activities and their implications upon the ground based data system is provided. Selected topics were specifically oriented to the use of satellites.

  9. A New Tool for Forecasting Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, J. H.; Falconer, D.; Barghouty, A. F.; Khazanov, I.; Moore, R.

    2010-01-01

    This poster describes a tool that is designed to forecast solar drivers for severe space weather. Since most severe space weather is driven by Solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) - the strongest of these originate in active regions and are driven by the release of coronal free magnetic energy and There is a positive correlation between an active region's free magnetic energy and the likelihood of flare and CME production therefore we can use this positive correlation as the basis of our empirical space weather forecasting tool. The new tool takes a full disk Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) magnetogram, identifies strong magnetic field areas, identifies these with NOAA active regions, and measures a free-magnetic-energy proxy. It uses an empirically derived forecasting function to convert the free-magnetic-energy proxy to an expected event rate. It adds up the expected event rates from all active regions on the disk to forecast the expected rate and probability of each class of events -- X-class flares, X&M class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar particle events (SPEs).

  10. Long-Term Space Weather Forecasting: Parameters and Accuracy Needed for the Ionosphere/Thermosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schunk, R. W.; Scherliess, L.; Sojka, J. J.; Thompson, D. C.; Zhu, L.

    2010-12-01

    Many of the problems associated with space weather pertain to the ionosphere-thermosphere system. Space weather can affect over-the-horizon (OTH) radars, HF communications, surveying and navigation systems, surveillance, spacecraft charging, orbital calculations, power grids, pipelines, and the FAA’s Wide-Area Augmentation System (WAAS). As shown by the meteorologists and oceanographers, the best weather models are physics-based data assimilation models. As the physics-based models improve and more data are included in the assimilation scheme, the data assimilation models have been shown to provide more reliable specifications and forecasts. Therefore, in an effort to mitigate the adverse effects of space weather, we developed and are continuing to develop four data assimilation models, including two for the ionosphere (GAIM-GM and GAIM-FP), one for the high-latitude ionosphere dynamics and electrodynamics (IDED), and one for the thermosphere. The ionosphere models assimilate bottom-side Ne profiles from 100 ionosondes, slant TEC from 1000 ground GPS/TEC stations, in situ Ne from 4 DMSP satellites, occultation data from multiple satellites, and line-of-sight UV emissions measured by satellites. The IDED model assimilates cross-track ion velocities from the 4 DMSP satellites, line-of-sight ion velocities from the SuperDarn radar system, and magnetic perturbations from 100 ground magnetometers and from the Iridium constellation of satellites. These data assimilation models provide reliable specifications and short-term forecasts. However, for long-term forecasts it is useful to have a chain of coupled physics-based models from the Sun’s surface to the ionosphere-thermosphere system. Some of the issues that we will address with regard to long-term forecasting include the role a data assimilation model plays in providing a reliable specification, the resolution needed to describe important space weather features, the parameters needed for applications, and the

  11. Strategies and Innovative Approaches for the Future of Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoeksema, J. T.

    2012-12-01

    The real and potential impacts of space weather have been well documented, yet neither the required research and operations programs, nor the data, modeling and analysis infrastructure necessary to develop and sustain a reliable space weather forecasting capability for a society are in place. The recently published decadal survey "Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society" presents a vision for the coming decade and calls for a renewed national commitment to a comprehensive program in space weather and climatology. New resources are imperative. Particularly in the current fiscal environment, implementing a responsible strategy to address these needs will require broad participation across agencies and innovative approaches to make the most of existing resources, capitalize on current knowledge, span gaps in capabilities and observations, and focus resources on overcoming immediate roadblocks.

  12. A space weather forecasting system with multiple satellites based on a self-recognizing network.

    PubMed

    Tokumitsu, Masahiro; Ishida, Yoshiteru

    2014-05-05

    This paper proposes a space weather forecasting system at geostationary orbit for high-energy electron flux (>2 MeV). The forecasting model involves multiple sensors on multiple satellites. The sensors interconnect and evaluate each other to predict future conditions at geostationary orbit. The proposed forecasting model is constructed using a dynamic relational network for sensor diagnosis and event monitoring. The sensors of the proposed model are located at different positions in space. The satellites for solar monitoring equip with monitoring devices for the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind speed. The satellites orbit near the Earth monitoring high-energy electron flux. We investigate forecasting for typical two examples by comparing the performance of two models with different numbers of sensors. We demonstrate the prediction by the proposed model against coronal mass ejections and a coronal hole. This paper aims to investigate a possibility of space weather forecasting based on the satellite network with in-situ sensing.

  13. November 2004 space weather events: Real-time observations and forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trichtchenko, L.; Zhukov, A.; van der Linden, R.; Stankov, S. M.; Jakowski, N.; StanisłAwska, I.; Juchnikowski, G.; Wilkinson, P.; Patterson, G.; Thomson, A. W. P.

    2007-06-01

    Space weather events with their solar origin and their distribution through the heliosphere affect the whole magnetosphere-ionosphere-Earth system. Their real-time monitoring and forecasting are important for science and technology. Here we discuss one of the largest space weather events of Solar Cycle 23, in November 2004, which was also one of the most difficult periods to forecast. Nine halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs), interacting on their way through the interplanetary medium and forming two geoeffective interplanetary structures, exemplify the complexity of the event. Real-time and quasi-real-time observations of the ground geomagnetic field show rapid and extensive expansion of the auroral oval to 55° in geomagnetic latitude accompanied by great variability of the ionosphere. Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) seen in ground networks, such as power grids and pipelines, were significant during the event, although no problems were reported. Forecasts of the CME propagation, global and local ground geomagnetic activity, and ionospheric parameters, issued by several regional warning centers, revealed certain deficiencies in predictions of the interplanetary characteristics of the CME, size of the geomagnetic disturbances, and complexity of the ionospheric variations produced by this event. This paper is a collective report based on the materials presented at the splinter session on November 2004 events during the first European Space Weather Week.

  14. Integration between solar and space science data for space weather forecast using web services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, S.

    2007-08-01

    As the technology develops, the opportunity that the human beings behave in space, and it is still understood that the solar activities (especially the solar flare) influence the airlines communication, the ship communication and the power generator of the electric power company, etc. Forecasting the effects of the solar activities is becoming very important because there is such a background. Our goal is that constructs the detailed model from the Sun to the magnetosphere of the earth and simulates the solar activities and the effects. We try to integrate the existing observational data including the ground observational data and satellite observational data using by web service technology as a base to construct the model. We introduce our activity to combine the solar and space science data in Japan. Methods Generally, it is difficult to develop the virtual common database, but web service makes interconnection among different databases comparatively easy. We try to connect some databases in the portal site. Each different data objects is aggregated to a common data object. We can develop more complex services. We use RELAX NG in order to develop these applications easily. We begin the trial of the interconnection among the solar and space science data in Japan. In the case of solar observational data, we find the activity such as VO, for example, VSO and EGSO, but space science data seems to be very complex. In addition to this, there is time lag that solar activity has an effect on the magnetosphere of the Earth. We discuss these characteristic in the data analysis between the solar and space data. This work was supported by the Grant-in-Aid for Creative Scientific Research `The Basic Study of Space Weather Prediction' (17GS0208) from the Ministry of Education, Science, Sports, Technology, and Culture of Japan

  15. Smooth Sailing for Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Through a cooperative venture with NASA's Stennis Space Center, WorldWinds, Inc., developed a unique weather and wave vector map using space-based radar satellite information and traditional weather observations. Called WorldWinds, the product provides accurate, near real-time, high-resolution weather forecasts. It was developed for commercial and scientific users. In addition to weather forecasting, the product's applications include maritime and terrestrial transportation, aviation operations, precision farming, offshore oil and gas operations, and coastal hazard response support. Target commercial markets include the operational maritime and aviation communities, oil and gas providers, and recreational yachting interests. Science applications include global long-term prediction and climate change, land-cover and land-use change, and natural hazard issues. Commercial airlines have expressed interest in the product, as it can provide forecasts over remote areas. WorldWinds, Inc., is currently providing its product to commercial weather outlets.

  16. The Space Weather Modeling System: An ESMF Compliant Solar Wind and Ionospheric Forecast System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reich, J. P.; Fry, C. D.; Eccles, J. V.; Berman, L. M.; Sattler, M. P.

    2008-12-01

    Ionospheric storms can severely impact communications, navigation and surveillance systems. These ionospheric disturbances are driven by solar activity. A key challenge in space science is to understand the causes of the ionospheric response to solar forcing. Attempting to accurately forecast the time-dependent behavior of the ionosphere is the only way to truly test our understanding of the ionosphere. Space weather forecasters for the DoD face this challenge on a daily basis. The Air Force Weather Agency is meeting this challenge through the development of an operational Space Weather Modeling System (SWMS). The SWMS is a Battlespace Environments Institute (BEI) project that couples Earth system environmental models together under the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). BEI is sponsored by the High Performance Computing (HPC) Modernization Office. The first two coupled components in SWMS are the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 (HAFv2) solar wind model and the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) model. The HAFv2 model produces quantitative forecasts of solar wind parameters at Earth and elsewhere in the inner heliosphere. The Ionosphere Forecast Model (IFM) is the physics-based ionosphere model within GAIM. IFM provides highly representative specifications of plasma conditions in the global ionosphere. The one-way coupling of HAFv2 to IFM links the solar storm drivers to the ionospheric response. Predicted solar wind quantities are fed as inputs to IFM, which computes the solar wind energy deposition into the high latitude ionosphere, enabling GAIM to provide multi- day forecasts of ionospheric electron density, currents and upper atmosphere dynamics. The SWMS development is a structured project, moving from partial to full ESMF compliance. Bringing the HAFv2 and IFM models into the ESMF allows significant improvements in computational efficiency and data throughput. Modifying these computer codes for the HPC environment opens the door for

  17. Resilient Sensor Networks with Spatiotemporal Interpolation of Missing Sensors: An Example of Space Weather Forecasting by Multiple Satellites

    PubMed Central

    Tokumitsu, Masahiro; Hasegawa, Keisuke; Ishida, Yoshiteru

    2016-01-01

    This paper attempts to construct a resilient sensor network model with an example of space weather forecasting. The proposed model is based on a dynamic relational network. Space weather forecasting is vital for a satellite operation because an operational team needs to make a decision for providing its satellite service. The proposed model is resilient to failures of sensors or missing data due to the satellite operation. In the proposed model, the missing data of a sensor is interpolated by other sensors associated. This paper demonstrates two examples of space weather forecasting that involves the missing observations in some test cases. In these examples, the sensor network for space weather forecasting continues a diagnosis by replacing faulted sensors with virtual ones. The demonstrations showed that the proposed model is resilient against sensor failures due to suspension of hardware failures or technical reasons. PMID:27092508

  18. Resilient Sensor Networks with Spatiotemporal Interpolation of Missing Sensors: An Example of Space Weather Forecasting by Multiple Satellites.

    PubMed

    Tokumitsu, Masahiro; Hasegawa, Keisuke; Ishida, Yoshiteru

    2016-04-15

    This paper attempts to construct a resilient sensor network model with an example of space weather forecasting. The proposed model is based on a dynamic relational network. Space weather forecasting is vital for a satellite operation because an operational team needs to make a decision for providing its satellite service. The proposed model is resilient to failures of sensors or missing data due to the satellite operation. In the proposed model, the missing data of a sensor is interpolated by other sensors associated. This paper demonstrates two examples of space weather forecasting that involves the missing observations in some test cases. In these examples, the sensor network for space weather forecasting continues a diagnosis by replacing faulted sensors with virtual ones. The demonstrations showed that the proposed model is resilient against sensor failures due to suspension of hardware failures or technical reasons.

  19. Post Alpbach-summerschool project: CARRINGTON MISSION FOR CME DETECTION TO IMPROVE SPACE WEATHER FORECAST

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheucher, Markus; Urbar, Jaroslav; Musset, Sophie; Andersson, Viktor; Gini, Francesco; Gorski, Jedrzej; Jüstel, Peter; Kiefer, René; Lee, Arrow; Meskers, Arjan; Miles, Oscar; Perakis, Nikolas; Rußwurm, Michael; Scully, Stephen; Seifert, Bernhard; Sorba, Arianna

    2014-05-01

    The effects of solar activity, especially Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), on Earth- and satellite-based systems are well-known and can cause major damage to space-dependent infrastructure. The main problem in current space weather forecasting is the inability to determine necessary forecast parameters of CMEs and Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) early enough to react. We present the design for a novel space mission consisting of two spacecraft that is aimed to perform stereoscopic measurements on Earth-directed CMEs and in-situ measurements of CIRs. The magnetic field orientation and structure of CMEs will be measured close to the Sun, using spectro-polarimetry. Geoeffectiveness will be derived by remote sensing the CMEs magnetic field at 0.64AU from the Sun, determining the full magnetic field vector of a CME. This will be achieved by the novel concept of measuring its polarising effects on spacecraft to spacecraft laser beams based upon heterodyne interferometry. Overall structure and trajectory of CMEs will also be monitored by heliospheric imagers and in-situ plasma instruments. To achieve the mission objectives, the orbit is heliocentric at 1AU with a separation angle from the Earth of ±50°. The operational mission lifetime is 6 years with a proposed 6 year extension. If implemented, Carrington will serve as a forecast system which will significantly improve the minimum forecast time for the fastest CMEs with 2000 km/s, from 13 minutes based on current L1 satellites, to around 3 hours.

  20. Geomagnetic Activity Forecasting Using Self-Learning Algorithms: Application in Space Weather Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khalil, A. F.; Barakat, A. R.; McKee, M.

    2005-05-01

    The ability to forecast the geomagnetic activities is becoming more important as human activity in space becomes more prevalent. For example, early warning of geomagnetic storms could help mitigate their harmful effects on space electronics and on electrical power lines. Moreover, recently developed space weather algorithms that utilize physics-based models require future values of Kp as an input in order to forecast the ionospheric behavior. Computational learning theory and data-driven modeling techniques are new and rapidly expanding areas of research that aim at developing efficient learning algorithms. Here we compare self-learning algorithms regarding their abilities to forecast the level of geomagnetic activities, as represented by Kp. In particular, we consider the following algorithms: artificial neural networks, locally weighted projection regression, support vector machines, and relevance vector machines. Different parameters are considered such as: (1) length of forecasting time, (2) type and size of input data, and (3) training set size. These learning machines are compared regarding their generalization capabilities and structure reliabilities. The relative strengths and limitations of these algorithms will be presented.

  1. Applying Forecast Models from the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gehmeyr, M.; Baker, D. N.; Millward, G.; Odstrcil, D.

    2007-12-01

    The Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) has developed three forecast models (FMs) for the Sun-Earth chain. They have been matured by various degrees toward the operational stage. The Sun-Earth FM suite comprises empirical and physical models: the Planetary Equivalent Amplitude (AP-FM), the Solar Wind (SW- FM), and the Geospace (GS-FM) models. We give a brief overview of these forecast models and touch briefly on the associated validation studies. We demonstrate the utility of the models: AP-FM supporting the operations of the AIM (Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere) mission soon after launch; SW-FM providing assistance with the interpretation of the STEREO beacon data; and GS-FM combining model and observed data to characterize the aurora borealis. We will then discuss space weather tools in a more general sense, point out where the current capabilities and shortcomings are, and conclude with a look forward to what areas need improvement to facilitate better real-time forecasts.

  2. Community Coordinated Modeling Center: Addressing Needs of Operational Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuznetsova, M.; Maddox, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Hesse, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Macneice, P.; Taktakishvili, A.; Berrios, D.; Chulaki, A.; Zheng, Y.; hide

    2012-01-01

    Models are key elements of space weather forecasting. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) hosts a broad range of state-of-the-art space weather models and enables access to complex models through an unmatched automated web-based runs-on-request system. Model output comparisons with observational data carried out by a large number of CCMC users open an unprecedented mechanism for extensive model testing and broad community feedback on model performance. The CCMC also evaluates model's prediction ability as an unbiased broker and supports operational model selections. The CCMC is organizing and leading a series of community-wide projects aiming to evaluate the current state of space weather modeling, to address challenges of model-data comparisons, and to define metrics for various user s needs and requirements. Many of CCMC models are continuously running in real-time. Over the years the CCMC acquired the unique experience in developing and maintaining real-time systems. CCMC staff expertise and trusted relations with model owners enable to keep up to date with rapid advances in model development. The information gleaned from the real-time calculations is tailored to specific mission needs. Model forecasts combined with data streams from NASA and other missions are integrated into an innovative configurable data analysis and dissemination system (http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov) that is accessible world-wide. The talk will review the latest progress and discuss opportunities for addressing operational space weather needs in innovative and collaborative ways.

  3. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark

    2005-01-01

    The Applied Meteorology Unit developed a forecast tool that provides an assessment of the likelihood of local convective severe weather for the day in order to enhance protection of personnel and material assets of the 45th Space Wing Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), and Kennedy Space Center (KSC).

  4. The scientific challenges to forecasting and nowcasting the solar origins of space weather (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schrijver, C. J.; Title, A. M.

    2013-12-01

    With the full-sphere continuous coverage of the Sun achieved by combining SDO and STEREO imagery comes the realization that solar activity is a manifestation of local processes that respond to long-range if not global influences. Numerical experiments provide insights into these couplings, as well as into the intricacies of destabilizations of field emerging into pre-existing configurations and evolving within the context of their dynamic surroundings. With these capabilities grows an understanding of the difficulties in forecasting of the solar origins of space weather: we need assimilative global non-potential field models, but our observational resources are too limited to meet that need.

  5. Space weather impacts on satellites and forecasting the Earth's electron radiation belts with SPACECAST

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horne, R. B.; Glauert, S. A.; Meredith, N. P.; Boscher, D.; Maget, V.; Heynderickx, D.; Pitchford, D.

    2013-04-01

    Satellites can be damaged by high energy charged particles in the Earth's radiation belts and during solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Here we review the growing reliance on satellite services, new vulnerabilities to space weather, and previous events that have led to loss of service. We describe a new European system to forecast the radiation belts up to 3 h ahead, which has three unique features: first, it uses physics-based models, which include wave-particle interactions; second, it provides a forecast for the whole outer radiation belt including geostationary, medium, and slot region orbits; third, it is a truly international effort including Europe, United States, and Japan. During the 8-9 March 2012 storm and SEP event, the models were able to forecast the >800 keV electron flux to within a factor of 2 initially, and later to within a factor of 10 of the GOES data. Although ACE and GOES data became unreliable during the SEP event, the system continued forecasting without interruption using ground-based magnetometers. A forecast of the 24 h electron fluence >2 MeV is used to provide a risk index for satellite operators. We show that including wave-particle interactions for L* > 6.5 improves the agreement with GOES data substantially and that a fast inward motion of the magnetopause to L* < 8 is related to rapid loss of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit. Thus, we suggest that better wave-particle models and better coupling between the solar wind and the models of the magnetopause and radiation belts should lead to better forecasting.

  6. First Solar Maximum with Social Media: Can Space Weather Forecasting be Improved?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Priedhorsky, R.; MacDonald, E.; Cao, Y.

    2012-12-01

    We are entering the first solar maximum with social media tools, in which web- and mobile-based technologies can be used to turn global communication into an interactive dialogue. Through real-time mapping on a prototype website, we explore the possibility of using a distributed network of human observers to compute and share a "nowcast" of auroral visibility to the public. Particularly when large geomagnetic storms create widely visible aurora over populated areas, this volunteered geographic information may lead to an aurora forecast notably more precise in space and time than conventional sparse space- or ground-based measurements. We will validate the efficacy of this observational framework by comparison to measurements and predictions of geomagnetic activity as provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and others. We will present recent examples as well as the possibility of scientific advances in other fields such as citizen science and collaborative computing.

  7. Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with

  8. Deflected Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections: One of the Key Issues in Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Y.; Shen, C.; Zhuang, B.; Pan, Z.

    2016-12-01

    As the most important driver of severe space weather, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their geoeffectiveness have been studied intensively. Previous statistical studies have shown that not all the front-side halo CMEs are geoeffective, and not all non-recurrent geomagnetic storms can be tracked back to a CME. These phenomena may cause some failed predictions of the geoeffectiveness of CMEs. The recent notable event exhibiting such a failure was on 2015 March 15 when a fast CME originated from the west hemisphere. Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) of NOAA initially forecasted that the CME would at most cause a very minor geomagnetic disturbance labeled as G1. However, the CME produced the largest geomagnetic storm so far, at G4 level with the provisional Dst value of -223 nT, in the current solar cycle 24 [e.g., Kataoka et al., 2015; Wang et al., 2016]. Such an unexpected phenomenon naturally raises the first question for the forecasting of the geoeffectiveness of a CME, i.e., whether or not a CME will hit the Earth even though we know the source location and initial kinematic properties of the CME. A full understanding of the propagation trajectory, e.g., the deflected propagation, of a CME from the Sun to 1 AU is the key. With a few cases, we show the importance of the deflection effect in the space weather forecasting. An automated CME arrival forecasting system containing a deflected propagation model is presented. References:[1] Kataoka, R., D. Shiota, E. Kilpua, and K. Keika, Pileup accident hypothesis of magnetic storm on 17 March 2015, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 5155-5161, 2015.[2] Wang, Yuming, Quanhao Zhang, Jiajia Liu, Chenglong Shen, Fang Shen, Zicai Yang, T. Zic, B. Vrsnak, D. F. Webb, Rui Liu, S. Wang, Jie Zhang, Q. Hu, and B. Zhuang, On the Propagation of a Geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection during March 15 - 17, 2015, J. Geophys. Res., accepted, doi:10.1002/2016JA022924, 2016.

  9. Evaluation of Radiation Belt Space Weather Forecasts for Internal Charging Analyses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Minow, Joseph I.; Coffey, Victoria N.; Jun, Insoo; Garrett, Henry B.

    2007-01-01

    A variety of static electron radiation belt models, space weather prediction tools, and energetic electron datasets are used by spacecraft designers and operations support personnel as internal charging code inputs to evaluate electrostatic discharge risks in space systems due to exposure to relativistic electron environments. Evaluating the environment inputs is often accomplished by comparing whether the data set or forecast tool reliability predicts measured electron flux (or fluence over a given period) for some chosen period. While this technique is useful as a model metric, it does not provide the information necessary to evaluate whether short term deviances of the predicted flux is important in the charging evaluations. In this paper, we use a 1-D internal charging model to compute electric fields generated in insulating materials as a function of time when exposed to relativistic electrons in the Earth's magnetosphere. The resulting fields are assumed to represent the "true" electric fields and are compared with electric field values computed from relativistic electron environments derived from a variety of space environment and forecast tools. Deviances in predicted fields compared to the "true" fields which depend on insulator charging time constants will be evaluated as a potential metric for determining the importance of predicted and measured relativistic electron flux deviations over a range of time scales.

  10. COST action 724: scientific, technical and forecast aspects of the European space weather service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jansen, F.; Lilensten, J.

    COST action 724 coordinates European research for modelling and prediction of space weather It started two years ago and is now fully operational More than 28 European countries and institutions are involved in this space weather action This talk will describe the objectives aims and status of this European space weather action

  11. Using Space Weather Forecast Tools for Understanding Planetary Magnetospheres: MESSENGER Experience Applied to MAVEN Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Daniel N.; Dewey, R. M.; Brain, D. A.; Jakosky, Bruce; Halekas, Jasper; Connerney, Jack; Odstrcil, Dusan; Mays, M. Leila; Luhmann, Janet

    2015-04-01

    The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL solar wind modeling tool has been used to calculate the values of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength (B), solar wind speed (V), density (n), ram pressure (~nV2), cross-magnetosphere electric field (VxB), Alfvén Mach number (MA), and other derived quantities of relevance for space weather purposes at Earth. Such parameters as solar wind dynamic pressure can be key for estimating the magnetopause standoff distance, as just one example. The interplanetary electric field drives many magnetospheric dynamical processes and can be compared with general magnetic activity indices and with the occurrence of energetic particle bursts within the Earth’s magnetosphere. Such parameters also serve as input to the global magnetohydrodynamic and kinetic magnetosphere models that are used to forecast magnetospheric and ionospheric processes. Such modeling done for Earth space weather forecasting has helped assess near-real-time magnetospheric behavior for MESSENGER at Mercury (as well as other mission analysis and Mercury ground-based observational campaigns). This solar-wind forcing knowledge has provided a crucial continuing step toward bringing heliospheric science expertise to bear on solar-planetary interaction studies. The experience gained from MESSENGER at Mercury is now being applied to the new observations from the MAVEN (Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution) mission at Mars. We compare the continuous WSA-ENLIL results derived from modeling to the MAVEN SWIA and MAG data from mid-December 2014 to the present time. This provides a broader contextual view of solar wind forcing at Mars and also allows a broader validation of the ENLIL model results throughout the inner heliosphere.

  12. The Future of Space Weather Forecasting with Polarized Wide-Field Imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeForest, C. E.; Howard, T. A.

    2016-12-01

    Heliospheric imaging has come of age. From the original concept of white light photometry with the Helios spacecraft through to the HIs on board STEREO and current research on the outer limits of the corona, heliospheric imagers have enabled important developments in our understanding of the solar wind and transients within. Future instruments have the potential to revolutionize space weather forecasting. We present a summary of recent progress as it relates to space weather prediction and new directions that a future instrument, which would build on lessons from Coriolis/SMEI and STEREO/HI, can take. Applications include both direct, far more precise 3-D tracking of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) across the inner solar system; measurement of CMEs' internal structures and their evolution; and a more complete, up-to-date understanding ("nowcasting") of prevailing conditions in the outer corona and solar wind. We will review of the status quo of heliospheric imaging and the latest developments in feature detection and measurement. We also explore the benefits of polarized heliospheric imaging, which we believe to be the best next step to advance heliospheric imaging and continue the scientific and operational development of this field.

  13. A Low-Cost CubeSat Mission for Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balthazor, R. L.; McHarg, M. G.; Scherliess, L.; Schunk, R. W.; Hoeffner, Z.; Barnhart, D.; Brown, R.

    2013-12-01

    The best space weather specification models are those that combine observational data with our understanding of the physics of the environment. The ability to forecast ionospheric weather at low and mid-latitudes, in particular those conditions conducive to plasma 'bubble' formation, have historically been restricted by our limited in-situ observations of the ionospheric plasma. While there has been an exponential growth in remote observations, particularly GPS-TEC, this has not been matched by an increase in in-situ observations (with a few notable exceptions such as DMSP and C/NOFS). In recent years, there have been proposed space sensor networks designed to cover selected orbits in LEO with either low-cost redundant 'disposable' spacecraft-as-sensor CubeSat platforms, or low-cost low-SWAP traditional sensors designed to be placed on as many conventional satellites as possible. The primary objective of these missions is to provide a dense set of sensor data parameters to 'fill in the gaps'. We propose a feasible low-cost CubeSat mission of 10 to 25 satellites-as-sensors in various orbital configurations. The benefit of such a mission to assimilative data models such as GAIM is examined, with improvements quantified and various metrics are examined to answer the question 'how many satellites are enough?'.

  14. The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations.

    PubMed

    Posner, A; Hesse, M; St Cyr, O C

    2014-04-01

    Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations. Manuscript assesses current and near-future space weather assetsCurrent assets unreliable for forecasting of severe geomagnetic stormsNear-future assets will not improve the situation.

  15. The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations

    PubMed Central

    Posner, A; Hesse, M; St Cyr, O C

    2014-01-01

    Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations. Key Points Manuscript assesses current and near-future space weather assets Current assets unreliable for forecasting of severe geomagnetic storms Near-future assets will not improve the situation PMID:26213516

  16. Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting.

    PubMed

    Owens, M J; Horbury, T S; Wicks, R T; McGregor, S L; Savani, N P; Xiong, M

    2014-06-01

    Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind "noise," which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical "downscaling" of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme.

  17. SWIFTER - Space Weather Informatics, Forecasting, and Technology through Enabling Research and Virtual Organizations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaefer, R. K.; Morrison, D.; Paxton, L.; Holm, J.; Weiss, M.; Hsieh, S.

    2009-05-01

    SWIFTER will build a virtual organization to enable collaboration among research, military, and commercial communities to find new ways to understand, characterize, and forecast space weather to meet the needs of our technology based society. In this paper we discuss how knowledge is shared in organizations and how a virtual organization can be formed. A key element of a "virtual" organization is that it is a fluid collection of members that share some means of communicating relevant information among some of its members. The members also share ideas in evolution (such as analysis, new technologies, and predictive trending). As concepts mature they can be matured or discarded more quickly as the power of the network is brought to bear early and often. Space weather, the changes in the near-Earth space environment, is important to a wide range of users as well as the public. The public is interested in a variety of phenomena including meteors, solar flares, the aurora, noctilucent clouds and climate change. Industry focus tends to be on more concrete problems such as ground-induced currents in power lines and communications with aircraft in transpolar routes as well as geolocation (i.e. the use of GPS systems to precisely map a function to a position). Other government-oriented users service specialized communities who may be more or less unaware of the research and development upon which the forecasts or nowcasts rely for accuracy. The basic research community may be more or less unaware of the details of the applications, or potential applications of their research. The problem, then, is that each of these constituencies may share elements in common but there is no umbrella organization that ties them together, nor is there likely to be such an organization. Our goal in this paper is to outline a scheme for a virtual organization, delineate the functions of that VO and illustrate how it might be formed. We also will assess the barriers to knowledge transfer that

  18. 14 CFR 135.213 - Weather reports and forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Weather reports and forecasts. 135.213... Operating Limitations and Weather Requirements § 135.213 Weather reports and forecasts. (a) Whenever a person operating an aircraft under this part is required to use a weather report or forecast, that person...

  19. 14 CFR 135.213 - Weather reports and forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Weather reports and forecasts. 135.213... Operating Limitations and Weather Requirements § 135.213 Weather reports and forecasts. (a) Whenever a person operating an aircraft under this part is required to use a weather report or forecast, that person...

  20. 14 CFR 135.213 - Weather reports and forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Weather reports and forecasts. 135.213... Operating Limitations and Weather Requirements § 135.213 Weather reports and forecasts. (a) Whenever a person operating an aircraft under this part is required to use a weather report or forecast, that person...

  1. 14 CFR 135.213 - Weather reports and forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Weather reports and forecasts. 135.213... Operating Limitations and Weather Requirements § 135.213 Weather reports and forecasts. (a) Whenever a person operating an aircraft under this part is required to use a weather report or forecast, that person...

  2. 14 CFR 135.213 - Weather reports and forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Weather reports and forecasts. 135.213... Operating Limitations and Weather Requirements § 135.213 Weather reports and forecasts. (a) Whenever a person operating an aircraft under this part is required to use a weather report or forecast, that person...

  3. Space Weather - Current Capabilities, Future Requirements, and the Path to Improved Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mann, Ian

    2016-07-01

    We present an overview of Space Weather activities and future opportunities including assessments of current status and capabilities, knowledge gaps, and future directions in relation to both observations and modeling. The review includes input from the scientific community including from SCOSTEP scientific discipline representatives (SDRs), COSPAR Main Scientific Organizers (MSOs), and SCOSTEP/VarSITI leaders. The presentation also draws on results from the recent activities related to the production of the COSPAR-ILWS Space Weather Roadmap "Understanding Space Weather to Shield Society" [Schrijver et al., Advances in Space Research 55, 2745 (2015) http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2015.03.023], from the activities related to the United Nations (UN) Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) actions in relation to the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space (LTS), and most recently from the newly formed and ongoing efforts of the UN COPUOS Expert Group on Space Weather.

  4. Weather Forecasting Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    Weather forecasters are usually very precise in reporting such conditions as temperature, wind velocity and humidity. They also provide exact information on barometric pressure at a given moment, and whether the barometer is "rising" or "falling"- but not how rapidly or how slowly it is rising or falling. Until now, there has not been available an instrument which measures precisely the current rate of change of barometric pressure. A meteorological instrument called a barograph traces the historical ups and downs of barometric pressure and plots a rising or falling curve, but, updated every three hours, it is only momentarily accurate at each updating.

  5. Overview of Space Weather, Space Weather Forecasts, and System Impacts During the High Activity from 19 October through 7 November 2003

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balch, C. C.; Crown, M. D.; Viereck, R.

    2004-05-01

    A remarkable interval of solar-geophysical activity occurred between 19 October and 7 November, 2003, including 17 major solar flares, six strong interplanetary shocks, six significant injections of energetic particles, and extreme levels of geomagnetic storming on 29 and 30 October. Among the more spectacular events were an X28 flare observed by the GOES XRS sensor on 4 November, which may be the highest ever recorded by GOES; a severe energetic particle event on 29 October, with peak fluxes making it the 4th highest observed in records going back to 1976; and an extreme geomagnetic storm which ranks as the 6th highest since 1932 based on the running Ap index. This interval provided unique challenges for space weather forecasting and nowcasting services and numerous system effects were reported. In this presentation we will provide some historical context for this activity, a discussion of the forecasts, warnings, and alerts that were issued, and we will cover some of the operational impacts of these space weather events.

  6. Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Owens, M J; Horbury, T S; Wicks, R T; McGregor, S L; Savani, N P; Xiong, M

    2014-01-01

    Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind “noise,” which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical “downscaling” of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme. Key Points Solar wind models must be downscaled in order to drive magnetospheric models Ensemble downscaling is more effective than deterministic downscaling The magnetosphere responds nonlinearly to small-scale solar wind fluctuations PMID:26213518

  7. The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Posner, A.; Hesse, M.; St. Cyr, O. C.

    2014-04-01

    Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

  8. The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Posner, Arik; Hesse, Michael; SaintCyr, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

  9. Weather Forecasting Systems and Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mecikalski, John (Inventor); MacKenzie, Wayne M., Jr. (Inventor); Walker, John Robert (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    A weather forecasting system has weather forecasting logic that receives raw image data from a satellite. The raw image data has values indicative of light and radiance data from the Earth as measured by the satellite, and the weather forecasting logic processes such data to identify cumulus clouds within the satellite images. For each identified cumulus cloud, the weather forecasting logic applies interest field tests to determine a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming precipitation and/or lightning in the future within a certain time period. Based on such scores, the weather forecasting logic predicts in which geographic regions the identified cumulus clouds will produce precipitation and/or lighting within during the time period. Such predictions may then be used to provide a weather map thereby providing users with a graphical illustration of the areas predicted to be affected by precipitation within the time period.

  10. The Role of Twisted Magnetic Flux Tubes in Topological Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nightingale, R. W.

    2008-12-01

    tubes play in topological space weather forecasting. This work was supported by NASA under the TRACE contract NAS5-38099.

  11. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  12. The pioneers of weather forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballard, Susan

    2016-01-01

    In The Weather Experiment author Peter Moore takes us on a compelling journey through the early history of weather forecasting, bringing to life the personalities, lives and achievements of the men who put in place the building blocks required for forecasts to be possible.

  13. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  14. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  15. Deep Space Ka-band Link Management and the MRO Demonstration: Long-term Weather Statistics Versus Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davarian, Faramaz; Shambayati, Shervin; Slobin, Stephen

    2004-01-01

    During the last 40 years, deep space radio communication systems have experienced a move toward shorter wavelengths. In the 1960s a transition from L- to S-band occurred which was followed by a transition from S- to X-band in the 1970s. Both these transitions provided deep space links with wider bandwidths and improved radio metrics capability. Now, in the 2000s, a new change is taking place, namely a move to the Ka-band region of the radio frequency spectrum. Ka-band will soon replace X-band as the frequency of choice for deep space communications providing ample spectrum for the high data rate requirements of future missions. The low-noise receivers of deep space networks have a great need for link management techniques that can mitigate weather effects. In this paper, three approaches for managing Ka-band Earth-space links are investigated. The first approach uses aggregate annual statistics, the second one uses monthly statistics, and the third is based on the short-term forecasting of the local weather. An example of weather forecasting for Ka-band link performance prediction is presented. Furthermore, spacecraft commanding schemes suitable for Ka-band link management are investigated. Theses schemes will be demonstrated using NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) spacecraft in the 2007 to 2008 time period, and the demonstration findings will be reported in a future publication.

  16. Deep Space Ka-band Link Management and the MRO Demonstration: Long-term Weather Statistics Versus Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davarian, Faramaz; Shambayati, Shervin; Slobin, Stephen

    2004-01-01

    During the last 40 years, deep space radio communication systems have experienced a move toward shorter wavelengths. In the 1960s a transition from L- to S-band occurred which was followed by a transition from S- to X-band in the 1970s. Both these transitions provided deep space links with wider bandwidths and improved radio metrics capability. Now, in the 2000s, a new change is taking place, namely a move to the Ka-band region of the radio frequency spectrum. Ka-band will soon replace X-band as the frequency of choice for deep space communications providing ample spectrum for the high data rate requirements of future missions. The low-noise receivers of deep space networks have a great need for link management techniques that can mitigate weather effects. In this paper, three approaches for managing Ka-band Earth-space links are investigated. The first approach uses aggregate annual statistics, the second one uses monthly statistics, and the third is based on the short-term forecasting of the local weather. An example of weather forecasting for Ka-band link performance prediction is presented. Furthermore, spacecraft commanding schemes suitable for Ka-band link management are investigated. Theses schemes will be demonstrated using NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) spacecraft in the 2007 to 2008 time period, and the demonstration findings will be reported in a future publication.

  17. Community-wide space weather Scoreboards: Facilitating the Validation of Real-time CME, Flare, and SEP Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mullinix, R.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Andries, J.; Bingham, S.; Bloomfield, D.; Boblitt, J. M.; Crosby, N. B.; Dierckxsens, M.; Guerra, J. A.; Leka, K. D.; Marsh, M. S.; Murray, S.; Wiegand, C.

    2016-12-01

    Confidence assessment of predictive space weather models ultimately determines the value of forecasts for end users. Testing predictive capabilities before event onset is important and especially relevant for validating space weather models. This poster presents three real-time forecast validation projects facilitated by the CCMC via forecast collection "scoreboards": (1) CME arrival time and geomagnetic storm strength, (2) flare occurrence probability, and (3) SEP onset, duration, peak flux, probability, and overall profile. The CME, Flare, and SEP scoreboards enable world-wide community involvement in real-time predictions, foster community validation projects, and ultimately help researchers improve their CME, flare, and SEP forecasts. All CME, Flare, SEP forecast modelers and experts worldwide are invited to advise or participate in this effort. The flare and SEP systems are automated such that model developers can routinely upload their predictions to an anonymous ftp and the data is accessible to anyone via an API. The "CME arrival time scoreboard" (https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/) provides a central location for the community to: submit their CME arrival time forecast in real-time, quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time, and compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived. There are currently 19 registered CME arrival time prediction methods. The "Flare Scoreboard" (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/challenges/flare.php) project is led by the UK Met Office.The full disk and active region flare forecasts can currently be viewed on an interactive display overlaid on an SDO/AIA or HMI image of the Sun and will be dynamically paired with a display of flare probability time series (coming soon). The "SEP Scoreboard" (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/challenges/sep.php) project is led by BIRA-IASB and the UK Met Office. SEP forecasts can be roughly divided into three categories: continuous/Probabilistic, solar event triggered, non near real

  18. The Worldwide Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) Stations (WIPSS) Network in support of Space-Weather Science and Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bisi, M. M.; Gonzalez-Esparza, A.; Jackson, B. V.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E.; Tokumaru, M.; Chashei, I. V.; Tyul'bashev, S. A.; Manoharan, P. K.; Fallows, R. A.; Chang, O.; Mejia-Ambriz, J. C.; Yu, H. S.; Fujiki, K.; Shishov, V.

    2016-12-01

    The phenomenon of space weather - analogous to terrestrial weather which describes the changing low-altitude atmospheric conditions on Earth - is essentially a description of the changes in the plasma environment at and near the Earth. Some key parameters for space-weather purposes driving space weather at the Earth include velocity, density, magnetic field, high-energy particles, and radiation coming into and within the near-Earth space environment. Interplanetary scintillation (IPS) can be used to provide a global measure of velocity and density as well as indications of changes in the plasma and magnetic-field rotations along each observational line of sight. If the observations are formally inverted into a three-dimensional (3-D) tomographic reconstruction (such as using the University of California, San Diego - UCSD - kinematic model and reconstruction technique), then source-surface magnetic fields can also be propagated out to the Earth (and beyond) as well as in-situ data also being incorporated into the reconstruction. Currently, this has been done using IPS data only from the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental (ISEE) and has been scientifically since the 1990s, and in a forecast mode since around 2000. There is now a defined IPS Common Data Format (IPSCDFv1.0) which is being implemented by the majority of the IPS community (this also feeds into the tomography). The Worldwide IPS Stations (WIPSS) Network aims to bring together, using IPSCDFv1.0, the worldwide real-time capable IPS observatories with well-developed and tested analyses techniques being unified across all single-site systems (such as MEXART, Pushchino, and Ooty) and cross-calibrated to the multi-site ISEE system (as well as learning from the scientific-based systems such as EISCAT, LOFAR, and the MWA), into the UCSD 3-D tomography to improve the accuracy, spatial and temporal data coverage, and both the spatial and temporal resolution for improved space-weather science and forecast

  19. From Predicting Solar Activity to Forecasting Space Weather: Practical Examples of Research-to-Operations and Operations-to-Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steenburgh, R. A.; Biesecker, D. A.; Millward, G. H.

    2014-02-01

    The successful transition of research to operations (R2O) and operations to research (O2R) requires, above all, interaction between the two communities. We explore the role that close interaction and ongoing communication played in the successful fielding of three separate developments: an observation platform, a numerical model, and a visualization and specification tool. Additionally, we will examine how these three pieces came together to revolutionize interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) arrival forecasts. A discussion of the importance of education and training in ensuring a positive outcome from R2O activity follows. We describe efforts by the meteorological community to make research results more accessible to forecasters and the applicability of these efforts to the transfer of space-weather research. We end with a forecaster "wish list" for R2O transitions. Ongoing, two-way communication between the research and operations communities is the thread connecting it all.

  20. Improving solar wind persistence forecasts: Removing transient space weather events, and using observations away from the Sun-Earth line

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohutova, Petra; Bocquet, François-Xavier; Henley, Edmund M.; Owens, Matthew J.

    2016-10-01

    This study demonstrates two significant ways of improving persistence forecasts of the solar wind, which exploit the relatively unchanging nature of the ambient solar wind to provide 27 day forecasts, when using data from the Lagrangian L1 point. Such forecasts are useful as a prediction tool for the ambient wind, and for benchmarking of solar wind models. We show that solar wind persistence forecasts can be improved by removing transient solar wind features such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Using CME indicators to automatically identify CME-contaminated periods in ACE data from 1998 to 2011, and replacing these with solar wind from a previous synodic rotation, persistence forecasts improve (relative to a baseline): skill scores for Bz, a crucial parameter for determining solar wind geoeffectiveness, improve by 7.7 percentage points when using a proton temperature-based indicator with good operational potential. We also show that persistence forecasts can be improved by using measurements away from L1, to reduce the requirement on coronal stability for an entire synodic period, at the cost of reduced lead time. Using STEREO-B data from 2007 to 2013 to create such a reduced lead time persistence forecast, we show that Bz skill scores improve by 17.1 percentage points relative to ACE. Finally, we report on implications for persistence forecasts from any future missions to the L5 Lagrangian point and on the successful operational implementation (in spring 2015) of the normal (ACE-based) and reduced lead time (STEREO-based) persistence forecasts in the Met Office's Space Weather Operations Centre, as well as plans for future improvements.

  1. Meeting Report: Integrating Space Weather Observations and Forecasts into Aviation Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisher, Genene; Jones, Bryn

    2007-07-01

    The policy and operational aspects of applying space weather information to the international aviation industry are of growing concern to both operators and regulators, especially since the number of cross-polar flights have increased from a handful of demonstration flights in 1999 to over a dozen daily schedules today. The aviation industry is primarily concerned about risks during high latitude (>50°N) and polar operations (>78°N∥ since impacts of space weather can be greatest in these regions. Effects include disruption in high-frequency communications, Global Positioning System errors, and radiation hazards to humans and avionics.

  2. Strategies to Forecasting Space Weather Events from Uncovering and Predicting Patterns of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field Inside Coronal Mass Ejections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jahn, Jorg-Micha; Elliott, H. A.

    The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) inside coronal mass ejections (CME) is a major factor in controlling terrestrial space weather events. Our ability to model, and thus predict, CME propagation is constantly improving. However, our ability to predict the detailed and relevant magnetic structure inside CMEs is not necessarily following behind at the same rate. Nev-ertheless, it is highly desirable to predict the IMF structure at the L1 point on intermediate timescales up to half a day ahead of time. In this presentation, we discuss how pattern recog-nition of at solar wind IMF data at the L1 point could be part of a forecast system for the IMF and terrestrial space weather events on these intermediate time scales. Our approach is to clas-sify the temporal patterns of the IMF inside CMEs at relevant time scales by classifying solar wind time series segments of various lengths using Kohonen Self-Organizing Maps. We present how these networks view the time history of CMEs passing over the L1 point. We discuss how this classification of temporal patterns can be used in predicting the future temporal develop-ment of the solar wind IMF in CMEs. Ultimately, our approach is geared towards enabling the development of a probability-driven space weather forecasting approach that combines at a minimum L1 in situ and solar remote observations, but is also open to (and very likely will require) model-based techniques.

  3. Forecasting the Weather.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bollinger, Richard

    1984-01-01

    Presents a computer program which predicts the weather based on student input of such weather data as wind direction and barometric pressure. Also provides procedures for several hands-on, weather-related activities. (JN)

  4. Forecasting the Weather.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bollinger, Richard

    1984-01-01

    Presents a computer program which predicts the weather based on student input of such weather data as wind direction and barometric pressure. Also provides procedures for several hands-on, weather-related activities. (JN)

  5. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

  6. Weather impacts on space operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madura, J.; Boyd, B.; Bauman, W.; Wyse, N.; Adams, M.

    The efforts of the 45th Weather Squadron of the USAF to provide weather support to Patrick Air Force Base, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Eastern Range, and the Kennedy Space Center are discussed. Its weather support to space vehicles, particularly the Space Shuttle, includes resource protection, ground processing, launch, and Ferry Flight, as well as consultations to the Spaceflight Meteorology Group for landing forecasts. Attention is given to prelaunch processing weather, launch support weather, Shuttle launch commit criteria, and range safety weather restrictions. Upper level wind requirements are examined. The frequency of hourly surface observations with thunderstorms at the Shuttle landing facility, and lightning downtime at the Titan launch complexes are illustrated.

  7. Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Solar drivers of severe space weather can be predicted from line-of-sight magnetograms, via a free-energy proxy measured from the neutral lines. This can be done in near real time. In addition to depending strongly on the free magnetic energy, an active region's chance of having a major eruption depends strongly on other aspects of the evolving magnetic field (e.g., its complexity and flux emergence).

  8. GEM: Statistical weather forecasting procedure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, R. G.

    1983-01-01

    The objective of the Generalized Exponential Markov (GEM) Program was to develop a weather forecast guidance system that would: predict between 0 to 6 hours all elements in the airways observations; respond instantly to the latest observed conditions of the surface weather; process these observations at local sites on minicomputing equipment; exceed the accuracy of current persistence predictions at the shortest prediction of one hour and beyond; exceed the accuracy of current forecast model output statistics inside eight hours; and be capable of making predictions at one location for all locations where weather information is available.

  9. GEM: Statistical weather forecasting procedure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, R. G.

    1983-01-01

    The objective of the Generalized Exponential Markov (GEM) Program was to develop a weather forecast guidance system that would: predict between 0 to 6 hours all elements in the airways observations; respond instantly to the latest observed conditions of the surface weather; process these observations at local sites on minicomputing equipment; exceed the accuracy of current persistence predictions at the shortest prediction of one hour and beyond; exceed the accuracy of current forecast model output statistics inside eight hours; and be capable of making predictions at one location for all locations where weather information is available.

  10. Japanese space weather research activities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishii, M.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we present existing and planned Japanese space weather research activities. The program consists of several core elements, including a space weather prediction system using numerical forecasts, a large-scale ground-based observation network, and the cooperative framework "Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP)" based on a Grant-in Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas.

  11. The Worldwide Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) Stations (WIPSS) Network in support of Space-Weather Science and Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bisi, Mario Mark; Americo Gonzalez-Esparza, J.; Jackson, Bernard; Aguilar-Rodriguez, Ernesto; Tokumaru, Munetoshi; Chashei, Igor; Tyul'bashev, Sergey; Manoharan, Periasamy; Fallows, Richard; Chang, Oyuki; Yu, Hsiu-Shan; Fujiki, Ken'ichi; Shishov, Vladimir; Barnes, David

    2017-04-01

    The phenomenon of space weather - analogous to terrestrial weather which describes the changing low-altitude atmospheric conditions on Earth - is essentially a description of the changes in the plasma environment at and near the Earth. Some key parameters for space-weather purposes driving space weather at the Earth include velocity, density, magnetic field, high-energy particles, and radiation coming into and within the near-Earth space environment. Interplanetary scintillation (IPS) can be used to provide a global measure of velocity and density as well as indications of changes in the plasma and magnetic-field rotations along each observational line of sight. If the observations are formally inverted into a three-dimensional (3-D) tomographic reconstruction (such as using the University of California, San Diego - UCSD - kinematic model and reconstruction technique), then source-surface magnetic fields can also be propagated out to the Earth (and beyond) as well as in-situ data also being incorporated into the reconstruction. Currently, this has been done using IPS data only from the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental (ISEE) and has been scientifically since the 1990s, and in a forecast mode since around 2000. There is now a defined (and updated) IPS Common Data Format (IPSCDFv1.1) which is being implemented by the majority of the IPS community (this also feeds into the UCSD tomography). The Worldwide IPS Stations (WIPSS) Network aims to bring together, using IPSCDFv1.1, the worldwide real-time capable IPS observatories with well-developed and tested analyses techniques being unified across all single-site systems (such as MEXART, Pushchino, and Ooty) and cross-calibrated to the multi-site ISEE system (as well as learning from the scientific-based systems such as EISCAT, LOFAR, and the MWA), into the UCSD 3-D tomography to improve the accuracy, spatial and temporal data coverage, and both the spatial and temporal resolution for improved space-weather science

  12. Using Forecasting to Teach Weather Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsubota, Y.; Takahashi, T.

    2009-09-01

    Weather affects our lives and hence, is a popular topic in daily conversations and in the media. Therefore, it is not only important to teach weather, but is also a good idea to use 'weather' as a topic in science teaching. Science education has two main objectives: to acquire scientific concepts and methods. Weather forecasting is an adequate theme to teach scientific methods because it is dependent on observation. However, it is not easy to forecast weather using only temporal observation. We need to know the tendency of 'weather change' via consecutive and/or continuous weather observation. Students will acquire scientific-observation skills through weather observation. Data-processing skills would be enhanced through a weather-forecasting contest. A contest should be announced within 5 days of school events, such as a school excursion and field day. Students submit their own weather forecast by gathering weather information through the internet, news paper and so on. A weather-forecasting contest compels the student to observe the weather more often. We currently have some different weather forecasts. For example, American weather-related companies such as ACCU weather and Weather Channel provide weather forecast for the many locations all over the world. Comparing these weather forecasting with actual weather, participants such as students could evaluate the differences between forecasted and actual temperatures. Participants will judge the best weather forecast based on the magnitude of the difference. Also, participants evaluate the 'hitting ratio' of each weather forecast. Students can learn elementary statistics by comparing various weather forecasts. We have developed our weather web-site that provides our own weather forecasting and observation. Students acquire science skills using our weather web-site. We will report our lessen plans and explain our weather web-site.

  13. Space Weather Services of Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Park, S.; Kim, Y. Y.; Wi, G.

    2015-12-01

    The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

  14. Space Weather Services of Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, KiChang; Kim, Jae-Hun; Kim, Young Yun; Kwon, Yongki; Wi, Gwan-sik

    2016-07-01

    The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

  15. Space Weather Services of Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Jangsuk, C.; Dong Kyu, K.; Jinyee, C.; Yeongoh, C.

    2016-12-01

    The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

  16. Convective Weather Avoidance with Uncertain Weather Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karahan, Sinan; Windhorst, Robert D.

    2009-01-01

    Convective weather events have a disruptive impact on air traffic both in terminal area and in en-route airspaces. In order to make sure that the national air transportation system is safe and efficient, it is essential to respond to convective weather events effectively. Traffic flow control initiatives in response to convective weather include ground delay, airborne delay, miles-in-trail restrictions as well as tactical and strategic rerouting. The rerouting initiatives can potentially increase traffic density and complexity in regions neighboring the convective weather activity. There is a need to perform rerouting in an intelligent and efficient way such that the disruptive effects of rerouting are minimized. An important area of research is to study the interaction of in-flight rerouting with traffic congestion or complexity and developing methods that quantitatively measure this interaction. Furthermore, it is necessary to find rerouting solutions that account for uncertainties in weather forecasts. These are important steps toward managing complexity during rerouting operations, and the paper is motivated by these research questions. An automated system is developed for rerouting air traffic in order to avoid convective weather regions during the 20- minute - 2-hour time horizon. Such a system is envisioned to work in concert with separation assurance (0 - 20-minute time horizon), and longer term air traffic management (2-hours and beyond) to provide a more comprehensive solution to complexity and safety management. In this study, weather is dynamic and uncertain; it is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. Algorithms are implemented in an air traffic simulation environment to support the research study. The algorithms used are deterministic but periodically revise reroutes to account for weather forecast updates. In contrast to previous studies, in this study convective weather is represented as regions of airspace that pilots

  17. New insights on short-term solar irradiance forecast for space weather applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vieira, L. A.; Dudok de Wit, T.; Balmaceda, L. A.; Dal Lago, A.; Da Silva, L. A.; Gonzalez, W. D.

    2013-12-01

    The conditions of the thermosphere, the ionosphere, the neutral atmosphere, and the oceans on time scales from days to millennia are highly dependent on the solar electromagnetic output, the solar irradiance. The development of physics-based solar irradiance models during the last decade improved significantly our understanding of the solar forcing on Earth's climate. These models are based on the assumption that most of the solar irradiance variability is related to the magnetic field structure of the Sun. Recently, these models were extended to allow short-term forecast (1 to 15 days) of the total and spectral solar irradiance. The extension of the irradiance models is based on solar surface magnetic flux models and/or artificial neural network models. Here, we discuss in details the irradiance forecast models based on observations of the solar surface magnetic field realized by the HMI instrument on board of SDO spacecraft. We constrained and validated the models by comparing the output of the models and observations of the solar irradiance made by instruments onboard The SORCE spacecraft. This study received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013, FP7-SPACE-2010-1) under the grant agreement nrs. 218816 (SOTERIA project, www.soteria-space.eu) and 261948 (ATMOP,www.atmop.eu), and by the CNPq/Brazil under the grant number 312488/2012-2. We also gratefully thank the instrument teams for making their data available.

  18. NASA Space Weather Center Services: Potential for Space Weather Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Hesse, M.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Space Weather Center's primary objective is to provide the latest space weather information and forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and its partners and to bring space weather knowledge to the public. At the same time, the tools and services it possesses can be invaluable for research purposes. Here we show how our archive and real-time modeling of space weather events can aid research in a variety of ways, with different classification criteria. We will list and discuss major CME events, major geomagnetic storms, and major SEP events that occurred during the years 2010 - 2012. Highlights of major tools/resources will be provided.

  19. Training Guide for Severe Weather Forecasters

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1979-11-01

    with any type of forecast, the severe weather forecast is only as good as the analyses used in making that forecast. If the parameters (to be discussed... severe weather forecast . Finally, a description of techniques used to evaluate and adjust various AFGWC and National Weather Service (NWS...producers. 2.5.12 Lifted index.. .AWSM 105-124, Chapter 5. When used as a severe weather forecast parameter, consider the following intensity

  20. Medium-range fire weather forecasts

    Treesearch

    J.O. Roads; K. Ueyoshi; S.C. Chen; J. Alpert; F. Fujioka

    1991-01-01

    The forecast skill of theNational Meteorological Center's medium range forecast (MRF) numerical forecasts of fire weather variables is assessed for the period June 1,1988 to May 31,1990. Near-surface virtual temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and a derived fire weather index (FWI) are forecast well by the MRF model. However, forecast relative humidity has...

  1. The Los Alamos dynamic radiation environment assimilation model (DREAM) for space weather specification and forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Reeves, Geoffrey D; Friedel, Reiner H W; Chen, Yue; Koller, Josef; Henderson, Michael G

    2008-01-01

    The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to assess, quantify, and predict the hazards from the natural space environment and the anthropogenic environment produced by high altitude nuclear explosions (HANE). DREAM was initially developed as a basic research activity to understand and predict the dynamics of the Earth's Van Allen radiation belts. It uses Kalman filter techniques to assimilate data from space environment instruments with a physics-based model of the radiation belts. DREAM can assimilate data from a variety of types of instruments and data with various levels of resolution and fidelity by assigning appropriate uncertainties to the observations. Data from any spacecraft orbit can be assimilated but DREAM was designed to function with as few as two spacecraft inputs: one from geosynchronous orbit and one from GPS orbit. With those inputs, DREAM can be used to predict the environment at any satellite in any orbit whether space environment data are available in those orbits or not. Even with very limited data input and relatively simple physics models, DREAM specifies the space environment in the radiation belts to a high level of accuracy. DREAM has been extensively tested and evaluated as we transition from research to operations. We report here on one set of test results in which we predict the environment in a highly-elliptical polar orbit. We also discuss long-duration reanalysis for spacecraft design, using DREAM for real-time operations, and prospects for 1-week forecasts of the radiation belt environment.

  2. Kazakhstan Space Weather Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kryakunova, Olga

    2012-07-01

    Kazakhstan experimental complex is a center of experimental study of space weather. This complex is situated near Almaty, Kazakhstan and includes experimental setup for registration of cosmic ray intensity (neutron monitor) at altitude of 3340 m above sea level, geomagnetic observatory and setup for registration of solar flux density with frequency of 1 and 3 GHz with 1 second time resolution. Results of space environment monitoring in real time are accessible via Internet. This experimental information is used for space weather investigations and different cosmic ray effects. Almaty mountain cosmic ray station is one of the most suitable and sensitive stations for investigation and forecasting of the dangerous situations for satellites; for this reason Almaty cosmic ray station is included in the world-wide neutron monitor network for the real-time monitoring of the space weather conditions and European Database NMDB (www.nmdb.eu). All data are represented on the web-site of the Institute of Ionosphere (www.ionos.kz) in real time. Since July, 2006 the space environment prediction laboratory represents the forecast of geomagnetic activity every day on the same site (www.ionos.kz/?q=en/node/21).

  3. Addressing Metrics and Validation Needs for Space Weather Models, Tools and Forecasting Techniques at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuznetsova, Maria

    2016-07-01

    Systematic evaluation of space environment models and tools and confidence assessment of space weather forecasting techniques and procedures are critical for development and further improvements of operational space weather prediction capabilities. Quantifying the confidence and predictive accuracy of model calculations is a key information needed for making high-consequence decisions. The approach to the validation, uncertainty assessment and to the format of the metrics is strongly dependent on specific applications and end user needs. There is a need to understand which aspects of spatial and temporal characteristicsof space environment parameters are the most important for specific impacts on technological and biological systems. The presentation will review progress in on-going coordinated model validation activities and metrics studies organized and supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. We will focus on tasks associated with model-data comparisons, such as appropriate metrics selection for specific applications, preparation of observational data, sensitivity analysis of model outputs to input parameters, boundary conditions, modeling assumptions, adjustable parameters. We will discuss ideas for community-wide initiatives to build upon successes and to address challenges of metrics and validation activities, to develop guidelines and procedures to trace improvements over time and to pave a path forward.

  4. Progress toward forecasting of space weather effects on UHF SATCOM after Operation Anaconda

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelly, Michael A.; Comberiate, Joseph M.; Miller, Ethan S.; Paxton, Larry J.

    2014-10-01

    Space weather impacts on communications are often presented as a raison d'etre for studying space weather (e.g., Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society, 2013). Here we consider a communications outage during Operation Anaconda in Afghanistan that may have been related to ionospheric disturbances. Early military operations occurred during the peak of solar cycle 23 when ionospheric variability was enhanced. During Operation Anaconda, the Battle of Takur Ghar occurred at the summit of a 3191 m Afghan mountaintop on 4 March 2002 when the ionosphere was disturbed and could have affected UHF Satellite Communications (SATCOM). In this paper, we consider UHF SATCOM outages that occurred during repeated attempts to notify a Quick Reaction Force (QRF) on board an MH-47H Chinook to avoid a "hot" landing zone at the top of Takur Ghar. During a subsequent analysis of Operation Anaconda, these outages were attributed to poor performance of the UHF radios on the helicopters and to blockage by terrain. However, it is also possible that ionospheric anomalies together with multipath effects could have combined to decrease the signal-to-noise ratio of the communication links used by the QRF. A forensics study of Takur Ghar with data from the Global Ultraviolet Imager on the NASA Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics mission showed the presence of ionospheric bubbles (regions of depleted electron density) along the line of sight between the Chinook and the UHF communications satellites in geostationary orbit that could have impacted communications. The events of 4 March 2002 motivated us to develop the Mesoscale Ionospheric Simulation Testbed model, which can be used to improve warnings of potential UHF outages during future military operations.

  5. Weather related continuity and completeness on Deep Space Ka-band links: statistics and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shambayati, Shervin

    2006-01-01

    In this paper the concept of link 'stability' as means of measuring the continuity of the link is introduced and through it, along with the distributions of 'good' periods and 'bad' periods, the performance of the proposed Ka-band link design method using both forecasting and long-term statistics has been analyzed. The results indicate that the proposed link design method has relatively good continuity and completeness characteristics even when only long-term statistics are used and that the continuity performance further improves when forecasting is employed. .

  6. Weather related continuity and completeness on Deep Space Ka-band links: statistics and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shambayati, Shervin

    2006-01-01

    In this paper the concept of link 'stability' as means of measuring the continuity of the link is introduced and through it, along with the distributions of 'good' periods and 'bad' periods, the performance of the proposed Ka-band link design method using both forecasting and long-term statistics has been analyzed. The results indicate that the proposed link design method has relatively good continuity and completeness characteristics even when only long-term statistics are used and that the continuity performance further improves when forecasting is employed. .

  7. Titanic Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2004-04-01

    New Detailed VLT Images of Saturn's Largest Moon Optimizing space missions Titan, the largest moon of Saturn was discovered by Dutch astronomer Christian Huygens in 1655 and certainly deserves its name. With a diameter of no less than 5,150 km, it is larger than Mercury and twice as large as Pluto. It is unique in having a hazy atmosphere of nitrogen, methane and oily hydrocarbons. Although it was explored in some detail by the NASA Voyager missions, many aspects of the atmosphere and surface still remain unknown. Thus, the existence of seasonal or diurnal phenomena, the presence of clouds, the surface composition and topography are still under debate. There have even been speculations that some kind of primitive life (now possibly extinct) may be found on Titan. Titan is the main target of the NASA/ESA Cassini/Huygens mission, launched in 1997 and scheduled to arrive at Saturn on July 1, 2004. The ESA Huygens probe is designed to enter the atmosphere of Titan, and to descend by parachute to the surface. Ground-based observations are essential to optimize the return of this space mission, because they will complement the information gained from space and add confidence to the interpretation of the data. Hence, the advent of the adaptive optics system NAOS-CONICA (NACO) [1] in combination with ESO's Very Large Telescope (VLT) at the Paranal Observatory in Chile now offers a unique opportunity to study the resolved disc of Titan with high sensitivity and increased spatial resolution. Adaptive Optics (AO) systems work by means of a computer-controlled deformable mirror that counteracts the image distortion induced by atmospheric turbulence. It is based on real-time optical corrections computed from image data obtained by a special camera at very high speed, many hundreds of times each second (see e.g. ESO Press Release 25/01 , ESO PR Photos 04a-c/02, ESO PR Photos 19a-c/02, ESO PR Photos 21a-c/02, ESO Press Release 17/02, and ESO Press Release 26/03 for earlier NACO

  8. Space weather: Challenges and Opportunities (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogdan, T. J.

    2009-12-01

    The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has the following legal mandates to: a) Continuously monitor, measure, and specify the space environment, b) Provide timely and accurate space weather data, operational forecasts, alerts, and warnings of hazardous space weather phenomena, c) Provide scientific stewardship of, and public access to, space weather data and products, d) Understand the processes that influence space weather and develop applications for the user community and e) Develop new and improved products and transition them into operations to meet evolving space weather user needs. This presentation will discuss the challenges and opportunities that NOAA and the SWPC face in addressing these mandates. This includes coordination of space environment activities across federal agencies and the strategic planning for NOAA's space weather services, integration of space weather activities as well as critical dependencies of space weather services on current and future operational environmental satellites.

  9. An Overview of Scientific and Space Weather Results from the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) Mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pfaff, R.; de la Beaujardiere, O.; Hunton, D.; Heelis, R.; Earle, G.; Strauss, P.; Bernhardt, P.

    2012-01-01

    The Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) Mission of the Air Force Research Laboratory is described. C/NOFS science objectives may be organized into three categories: (1) to understand physical processes active in the background ionosphere and thermosphere in which plasma instabilities grow; (2) to identify mechanisms that trigger or quench the plasma irregularities responsible for signal degradation; and (3) to determine how the plasma irregularities affect the propagation of electromagnetic waves. The satellite was launched in April, 2008 into a low inclination (13 deg), elliptical (400 x 850 km) orbit. The satellite sensors measure the following parameters in situ: ambient and fluctuating electron densities, AC and DC electric and magnetic fields, ion drifts and large scale ion composition, ion and electron temperatures, and neutral winds. C/NOFS is also equipped with a GPS occultation receiver and a radio beacon. In addition to the satellite sensors, complementary ground-based measurements, theory, and advanced modeling techniques are also important parts of the mission. We report scientific and space weather highlights of the mission after nearly four years in orbit

  10. First-Ever European Space Weather Week

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simpson, Sarah

    2004-07-01

    Europe's first Space Weather Week is scheduled to take place at the European Space Agency's European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC) in Noordwijk, The Netherlands, for five days beginning 29 November. Modeled after the U.S. Space Weather Week, the European agenda will highlight not only services and applications but also the crucial activity of transitioning scientific discoveries into forecasting capabilities.

  11. Observations of Heliospheric Faraday Rotation (FR) and Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) with the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR): Steps Towards Improving Space-Weather Forecasting Capabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bisi, M. M.; Fallows, R. A.; Sobey, C.; Eftekhari, T.; Jensen, E. A.; Jackson, B. V.; Yu, H. S.; Hick, P. P.; Odstrcil, D.; Tokumaru, M.

    2015-12-01

    The phenomenon of space weather - analogous to terrestrial weather which describes the changing pressure, temperature, wind, and humidity conditions on Earth - is essentially a description of the changes in velocity, density, magnetic field, high-energy particles, and radiation in the near-Earth space environment including the effects of such changes on the Earth's magnetosphere, radiation belts, ionosphere, and thermosphere. Space weather can be considered to have two main strands: (i) scientific research, and (ii) applications. The former is self-explanatory, but the latter covers operational aspects which includes its forecasting. Understanding and forecasting space weather in the near-Earth environment is vitally important to protecting our modern-day reliance (militarily and commercially) on satellites, global-communication and navigation networks, high-altitude air travel (radiation concerns particularly on polar routes), long-distance power/oil/gas lines and piping, and for any future human exploration of space to list but a few. Two ground-based radio-observing remote-sensing techniques that can aid our understanding and forecasting of heliospheric space weather are those of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and heliospheric Faraday rotation (FR). The LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR) is a next-generation 'software' radio telescope centered in The Netherlands with international stations spread across central and northwest Europe. For several years, scientific observations of IPS on LOFAR have been undertaken on a campaign basis and the experiment is now well developed. More recently, LOFAR has been used to attempt scientific heliospheric FR observations aimed at remotely sensing the magnetic field of the plasma traversing the inner heliosphere. We present our latest progress using these two radio heliospheric-imaging remote-sensing techniques including the use of three-dimensional (3-D) modeling and reconstruction techniques using other, additional data as input

  12. 3D Analysis of Remote-Sensed Heliospheric Data for Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, H. S.; Jackson, B. V.; Hick, P. P.; Buffington, A.; Bisi, M. M.; Odstrcil, D.; Hong, S.; Kim, J.; Yi, J.; Tokumaru, M.; Gonzalez-Esparza, A.

    2015-12-01

    The University of California, San Diego (UCSD) time-dependent iterative kinematic reconstruction technique has been used and expanded upon for over two decades. It currently provides some of the most accurate predictions and three-dimensional (3D) analyses of heliospheric solar-wind parameters now available using interplanetary scintillation (IPS) data. The parameters provided include reconstructions of velocity, density, and magnetic fields. Precise time-dependent results are obtained at any solar distance in the inner heliosphere using current Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (STELab), Nagoya University, Japan IPS data sets, but the reconstruction technique can also incorporate data from other IPS systems from around the world. With access using world IPS data systems, not only can predictions using the reconstruction technique be made without observation dead times due to poor longitude coverage or system outages, but the program can itself be used to standardize observations of IPS. Additionally, these analyses are now being exploited as inner-boundary values to drive an ENLIL 3D-MHD heliospheric model in real time. A major potential of this is that it will use the more realistic physics of 3D-MHD modeling to provide an automatic forecast of CMEs and corotating structures up to several days in advance of the event/features arriving at Earth, with or without involving coronagraph imagery or the necessity of magnetic fields being used to provide the background solar wind speeds.

  13. Operational Space Weather Activities in the US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berger, Thomas; Singer, Howard; Onsager, Terrance; Viereck, Rodney; Murtagh, William; Rutledge, Robert

    2016-07-01

    We review the current activities in the civil operational space weather forecasting enterprise of the United States. The NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center is the nation's official source of space weather watches, warnings, and alerts, working with partners in the Air Force as well as international operational forecast services to provide predictions, data, and products on a large variety of space weather phenomena and impacts. In October 2015, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released the National Space Weather Strategy (NSWS) and associated Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) that define how the nation will better forecast, mitigate, and respond to an extreme space weather event. The SWAP defines actions involving multiple federal agencies and mandates coordination and collaboration with academia, the private sector, and international bodies to, among other things, develop and sustain an operational space weather observing system; develop and deploy new models of space weather impacts to critical infrastructure systems; define new mechanisms for the transition of research models to operations and to ensure that the research community is supported for, and has access to, operational model upgrade paths; and to enhance fundamental understanding of space weather through support of research models and observations. The SWAP will guide significant aspects of space weather operational and research activities for the next decade, with opportunities to revisit the strategy in the coming years through the auspices of the National Science and Technology Council.

  14. Using DOE-ARM and Space-Based Assets to Assess the Quality of Air Force Weather 3D Cloud Analysis and Forecast Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nobis, T. E.

    2015-12-01

    Air Force Weather (AFW) has documented requirements for global cloud analysis and forecasting to support DoD missions around the world. To meet these needs, AFW utilizes a number of cloud products. Cloud analyses are constructed using 17 different near real time satellite sources. Products include analysis of the individual satellite transmissions at native satellite resolution and an hourly global merge of all 17 sources on a 24km grid. AFW has also recently started creation of a time delayed global cloud reanalysis to produce a 'best possible' analysis for climatology and verification purposes. Forecasted cloud products include global short-range cloud forecasts created using advection techniques as well as statistically post processed cloud forecast products derived from various global and regional numerical weather forecast models. All of these cloud products cover different spatial and temporal resolutions and are produced on a number of different grid projections. The longer term vision of AFW is to consolidate these various approaches into uniform global numerical weather modeling (NWM) system using advanced cloudy-data assimilation processes to construct the analysis and a licensed version of UKMO's Unified Model to produce the various cloud forecast products. In preparation for this evolution in cloud modeling support, AFW has started to aggressively benchmark the performance of their current capabilities. Cloud information collected from so called 'active' sensors on the ground at the DOE-ARM sites and from space by such instruments as CloudSat, CALIPSO and CATS are being utilized to characterize the performance of AFW products derived largely by passive means. The goal is to understand the performance of the 3D cloud analysis and forecast products of today to help shape the requirements and standards for the future NWM driven system.This presentation will present selected results from these benchmarking efforts and highlight insights and observations

  15. Brazilian Space Weather Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Padilha, Antonio; Takahashi, Hisao; de Paula, Eurico; Sawant, Hanumant; de Campos Velho, Haroldo; Vitorello, Icaro; Costa, Joaquim; Souza, Jonas; Cecatto, José; Mendes, Odim; Gonzalez Alarcon, Walter Demétrio

    forecasts of space weather conditions, and timely hazard alert warnings. The program is expected to be fully operational for the peak activity of the next solar maximum, but for its future growth and development it is essential to have a wide network of international collaborations.

  16. STEREO Space Weather and the Space Weather Beacon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Biesecker, D. A.; Webb, D F.; SaintCyr, O. C.

    2007-01-01

    The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) is first and foremost a solar and interplanetary research mission, with one of the natural applications being in the area of space weather. The obvious potential for space weather applications is so great that NOAA has worked to incorporate the real-time data into their forecast center as much as possible. A subset of the STEREO data will be continuously downlinked in a real-time broadcast mode, called the Space Weather Beacon. Within the research community there has been considerable interest in conducting space weather related research with STEREO. Some of this research is geared towards making an immediate impact while other work is still very much in the research domain. There are many areas where STEREO might contribute and we cannot predict where all the successes will come. Here we discuss how STEREO will contribute to space weather and many of the specific research projects proposed to address STEREO space weather issues. We also discuss some specific uses of the STEREO data in the NOAA Space Environment Center.

  17. Current and future challenges in space weather science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhukov, Andrei

    The main objective of the space weather science is to provide a scientific basis for reliable space weather forecasting. The importance of space weather forecasting is increasing as our society is becoming more and more dependent on advanced technologies that may be affected by adverse space weather conditions. Space weather forecasting is still a difficult task and requires specific observational inputs that are reviewed in this presentation, with an emphasis on solar and interplanetary weather. A list of key observations that are essential for real-time operational space weather forecasting is established. Further on, the use of observational data to produce reliable predictions requires development of empirical and statistical methods, as well as physical models. Scientific basis of space weather forecasting is briefly described. Several important problems are emphasized, and possible ways of improving our predictive capabilities are discussed, including possible novel space observations to be made in future.

  18. Weather Forecaster Understanding of Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bol, A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Abshire, W. E.

    2013-12-01

    Weather forecasters, particularly those in broadcasting, are the primary conduit to the public for information on climate and climate change. However, many weather forecasters remain skeptical of model-based climate projections. To address this issue, The COMET Program developed an hour-long online lesson of how climate models work, targeting an audience of weather forecasters. The module draws on forecasters' pre-existing knowledge of weather, climate, and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In order to measure learning outcomes, quizzes were given before and after the lesson. Preliminary results show large learning gains. For all people that took both pre and post-tests (n=238), scores improved from 48% to 80%. Similar pre/post improvement occurred for National Weather Service employees (51% to 87%, n=22 ) and college faculty (50% to 90%, n=7). We believe these results indicate a fundamental misunderstanding among many weather forecasters of (1) the difference between weather and climate models, (2) how researchers use climate models, and (3) how they interpret model results. The quiz results indicate that efforts to educate the public about climate change need to include weather forecasters, a vital link between the research community and the general public.

  19. The Next Generation Special Sensor Ultraviolet Limb Imager (SSULI+) for Operational Defense Space Weather Monitoring and Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicholas, A. C.; Budzien, S. A.; Dymond, K.; Coker, C.; Chua, D. H.; Walker, P. W.

    2013-05-01

    The Special Sensor Ultraviolet Limb Imager (SSULI) sensors aboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Block-5D3 satellites have successfully demonstrated both space weather sensing of the thermosphere and ionosphere and the high impact potential of UV remote sensing upon global assimilative operational ionosphere and thermosphere models. NRL is currently developing next-generation SSULI+ space weather sensors to maintain operational space weather sensing capability beyond the DMSP program. Applying recent technological innovations to update the proven heritage design provides SSULI+ with 10X higher effective sensitivity, robust rejection of environmental ion noise, and added measurement capability while reducing size, weight, and power requirements. We present data product improvements expected for the new SSULI+ sensor design and discuss the positive impact upon operational applications.

  20. The Next Generation Special Sensor Ultraviolet Limb Imager (SSULI+) for Operational Defense Space Weather Monitoring and Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budzien, S. A.; Nicholas, A. C.; Coker, C.; Dymond, K.; Chua, D. H.; Walker, P. W.

    2012-12-01

    The Special Sensor Ultraviolet Limb Imager (SSULI) sensors aboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Block-5D3 satellites have successfully demonstrated both space weather sensing of the thermosphere and ionosphere and the high impact potential of UV remote sensing upon global assimilative operational ionosphere and thermosphere models. NRL is currently developing next-generation SSULI+ space weather sensors to maintain operational space weather sensing capability beyond the DMSP program. Applying recent technological innovations to update the proven heritage design provides SSULI+ with 10X higher sensitivity, robust rejection of environmental ion noise, and added measurement capability while reducing size, weight, and power requirements. We present data product improvements expected for the new SSULI+ sensor design and discuss the positive impact upon operational applications.

  1. Probabilistic Weather Forecasting for Winter Road Maintenance

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-04-03

    weather predictions , they produce a joint predictive probability dis- tribution of temperature and precipitation. This then yields the probability of...precipitation at different spatial locations are treated as conditionally independent given the numerical weather predictions . In the second method, spatial...Unlike ours, these methods are all deterministic. Some statistical postprocessing methods for forecasting road ice from numerical weather predictions or

  2. Recent Progress of Solar Weather Forecasting at Naoc

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Han; Wang, Huaning; Du, Zhanle; Zhang, Liyun; Huang, Xin; Yan, Yan; Fan, Yuliang; Zhu, Xiaoshuai; Guo, Xiaobo; Dai, Xinghua

    The history of solar weather forecasting services at National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NAOC) can be traced back to 1960s. Nowadays, NAOC is the headquarters of the Regional Warning Center of China (RWC-China), which is one of the members of the International Space Environment Service (ISES). NAOC is responsible for exchanging data, information and space weather forecasts of RWC-China with other RWCs. The solar weather forecasting services at NAOC cover short-term prediction (within two or three days), medium-term prediction (within several weeks), and long-term prediction (in time scale of solar cycle) of solar activities. Most efforts of the short-term prediction research are concentrated on the solar eruptive phenomena, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar proton events, which are the key driving sources of strong space weather disturbances. Based on the high quality observation data of the latest space-based and ground-based solar telescopes and with the help of artificial intelligence techniques, new numerical models with quantitative analyses and physical consideration are being developed for the predictions of solar eruptive events. The 3-D computer simulation technology is being introduced for the operational solar weather service platform to visualize the monitoring of solar activities, the running of the prediction models, as well as the presenting of the forecasting results. A new generation operational solar weather monitoring and forecasting system is expected to be constructed in the near future at NAOC.

  3. Space Weather - the Economic Case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bisi, M. M.; Gibbs, M.

    2015-12-01

    Following on from the UK Government's placement of space weather on it's National Risk Register, in 2011, and the Royal Academy of Engineering's study into the impacts of a severe space weather event, the next piece of key evidence, to underpin future investment decisions, is understanding the socio-economic impact of space weather This poster outlines a study, funded by the UK Space Agency, which will assess the socio-economic cost of space weather, both severe events, such as 1989 & a modern day repeat of the Carrington storm and also the cost of day-to-day impacts. The study will go on to estimate the cost benefit of forecasting and also investigate options for an operational L5 spacecraft mission and knowledge exchange activities with the South African Space Agency. The findings from the initial space weather socio-economic literature review will be presented along with other findings to date and sets out the tasks for the remainder of this programme of work.

  4. Commercializing Space Weather using GAIM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobiska, W. Kent; Schunk, Robert; Sojka, Jan J.

    Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the en-ergy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere is the key region that affects com-munication and navigation systems. The Utah State University (USU) Space Weather Center (SWC) was organized in 2009 to develop commercial space weather applications. It uses the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system as the basis for providing improvements to communication and navigation systems. For example, in August 2009 SWC released, in conjunction with Space Environment Technologies, the world's first real-time space weather via an iPhone app, Space WX. It displays the real-time, current global ionosphere to-tal electron content along with its space weather drivers, is available through the Apple iTunes store, and is used around the world. The GAIM system is run operationally at SWC for global and regional (continental U.S.) conditions. Each run stream continuously ingests up to 10,000 slant TEC measurements every 15-minutes from approximately 500 stations in a Kalman filter to adjust the background output from the physics-based Ionosphere Forecast Model (IFM). Additionally, 80 real-time digisonde data streams from around the world provide ionosphere characterization up to the F-region peak. The combination of these data dramatically improves the current epoch ionosphere specification beyond the physics-based solution. The altitudinal range is 90-1500 km for output TEC, electron densities, and other data products with a few degrees resolution in latitude and longitude at 15-minute time granularity. We describe the existing SWC products that are used as commercial space weather information. SWC funding is provided by the State of Utah's Utah Science Technology and Research (USTAR) initiative. The SWC is physically located on the USU campus in Logan, Utah.

  5. RECONSTRUCTING CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WITH COORDINATED IMAGING AND IN SITU OBSERVATIONS: GLOBAL STRUCTURE, KINEMATICS, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING

    SciTech Connect

    Liu Ying; Luhmann, Janet G.; Lin, Robert P.; Bale, Stuart D.; Thernisien, Arnaud; Vourlidas, Angelos; Davies, Jackie A.

    2010-10-20

    We reconstruct the global structure and kinematics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using coordinated imaging and in situ observations from multiple vantage points. A forward modeling technique, which assumes a rope-like morphology for CMEs, is used to determine the global structure (including orientation and propagation direction) from coronagraph observations. We reconstruct the corresponding structure from in situ measurements at 1 AU with the Grad-Shafranov method, which gives the flux-rope orientation, cross section, and a rough knowledge of the propagation direction. CME kinematics (propagation direction and radial distance) during the transit from the Sun to 1 AU are studied with a geometric triangulation technique, which provides an unambiguous association between solar observations and in situ signatures; a track fitting approach is invoked when data are available from only one spacecraft. We show how the results obtained from imaging and in situ data can be compared by applying these methods to the 2007 November 14-16 and 2008 December 12 CMEs. This merged imaging and in situ study shows important consequences and implications for CME research as well as space weather forecasting: (1) CME propagation directions can be determined to a relatively good precision as shown by the consistency between different methods; (2) the geometric triangulation technique shows a promising capability to link solar observations with corresponding in situ signatures at 1 AU and to predict CME arrival at the Earth; (3) the flux rope within CMEs, which has the most hazardous southward magnetic field, cannot be imaged at large distances due to expansion; (4) the flux-rope orientation derived from in situ measurements at 1 AU may have a large deviation from that determined by coronagraph image modeling; and (5) we find, for the first time, that CMEs undergo a westward migration with respect to the Sun-Earth line at their acceleration phase, which we suggest is a universal

  6. Space weather risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pirjola, Risto; Kauristie, Kirsti; Lappalainen, Hanna; Viljanen, Ari; Pulkkinen, Antti

    2005-02-01

    The importance of space weather to society is in a continuous increase since we are more and more dependent on reliable spaceborne and ground-based technological systems. Physical processes involved in space weather constitute a complicated chain from the Sun to the Earth's surface, so the management of space weather risks requires expertise in many disciplines of science and technology. In this paper, geomagnetically induced currents in electric power networks are considered in detail, referring particularly to research carried out in Finland. Today's monitoring systems of natural risks, such as floods and forest fires, are based on satellite observations. Spacecraft and communication between satellites and the ground are vulnerable to space weather. Thus, besides being a direct risk to technology, space weather may also indirectly have adverse effects on risk management. European efforts, which take into account both aspects, are also discussed in this paper.

  7. Space weather activities in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cole, D.

    Space Weather Plan Australia has a draft space weather plan to drive and focus appropriate research into services that meet future industry and social needs. The Plan has three main platforms, space weather monitoring and service delivery, support for priority research, and outreach to the community. The details of monitoring, service, research and outreach activities are summarised. A ground-based network of 14 monitoring stations from Antarctica to Papua New Guinea is operated by IPS, a government agency. These sites monitor ionospheric and geomagnetic characteristics, while two of them also monitor the sun at radio and optical wavelengths. Services provided through the Australian Space Forecast Centre (ASFC) include real-time information on the solar, space, ionospheric and geomagnetic environments. Data are gathered automatically from monitoring sites and integrated with data exchanged internationally to create snapshots of current space weather conditions and forecasts of conditions up to several days ahead. IPS also hosts the WDC for Solar-Terrestrial Science and specialises in ground-based solar, ionospheric, and geomagnetic data sets, although recent in-situ magnetospheric measurements are also included. Space weather activities A research consortium operates the Tasman International Geospace Environment Radar (TIGER), an HF southward pointing auroral radar operating from Hobart (Tasmania). A second cooperative radar (Unwin radar) is being constructed in the South Island of New Zealand. This will intersect with TIGER over the auroral zone and enhance the ability of the radar to image the surge of currents that herald space environment changes entering the Polar Regions. Launched in November 2002, the micro satellite FEDSAT, operated by the Cooperative Research Centre for Satellite Systems, has led to successful space science programs and data streams. FEDSAT is making measurements of the magnetic field over Australia and higher latitudes. It also carries a

  8. Cosmic rays: Space Weather Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agarwal Mishra, Rekha; Mishra, Rajesh Kumar

    The concept of Space Weather was launched before a decade to describe the short-term variations in the different form of solar ac-tivity and their effect in the near Earth environ-ment. Space weather affects the Earth's atmos-phere in many ways and through various phe-nomena. Among them, geomagnetic storms and the variability of the galactic cosmic ray flux be-long to the most important ones as for the lower atmosphere. We have performed superposed ep-och analysis using hourly neutron monitor data for three different neutron-monitoring stations of different cut off rigidity as a measure of cosmic ray intensity. In the present study for superposed epoch analysis the time of occurrence of CMEs are defined as key time (zero or epoch hour/day). It is noteworthy that the use of cosmic ray data in space weather research plays a key role for its prediction. We have studied the cosmic ray, geo-magnetic and interplanetary plasma/field data to understand the physical mechanism responsible for Forbush decrease and geomagnetic storm that can be used as a signature to forecast space weather. Keywords: Space weather, cosmic ray, geomag-netic storm, forbush decrease

  9. School Science Inspired by Improving Weather Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reid, Heather; Renfrew, Ian A.; Vaughan, Geraint

    2014-01-01

    High winds and heavy rain are regular features of the British weather, and forecasting these events accurately is a major priority for the Met Office and other forecast providers. This is the challenge facing DIAMET, a project involving university groups from Manchester, Leeds, Reading, and East Anglia, together with the Met Office. DIAMET is part…

  10. School Science Inspired by Improving Weather Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reid, Heather; Renfrew, Ian A.; Vaughan, Geraint

    2014-01-01

    High winds and heavy rain are regular features of the British weather, and forecasting these events accurately is a major priority for the Met Office and other forecast providers. This is the challenge facing DIAMET, a project involving university groups from Manchester, Leeds, Reading, and East Anglia, together with the Met Office. DIAMET is part…

  11. Challenges in Teaching Space Physics to Different Target Groups From Space Weather Forecasters to Heavy-weight Theorists

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koskinen, H. E.

    2008-12-01

    Plasma physics as the backbone of space physics is difficult and thus the space physics students need to have strong foundations in general physics, in particular in classical electrodynamics and thermodynamics, and master the basic mathematical tools for physicists. In many universities the number of students specializing in space physics at Master's and Doctoral levels is rather small and the students may have quite different preferences ranging from experimental approach to hard-core space plasma theory. This poses challenges in building up a study program that has both the variety and depth needed to motivate the best students to choose this field. At the University of Helsinki we require all beginning space physics students, regardless whether they enter the field as Master's or Doctoral degree students, to take a one-semester package consisting of plasma physics and its space applications. However, some compromises are necessary. For example, it is not at all clear, how thoroughly Landau damping should be taught at the first run or how deeply should the intricacies of collisionless reconnection be discussed. In both cases we have left the details to an optional course in advanced space physics, even with the risk that the student's appreciation of, e.g., reconnection may remain at the level of a magic wand. For learning experimental work, data analysis or computer simulations we have actively pursued arrangements for the Master's degree students to get a summer employments in active research groups, which usually lead to the Master's theses. All doctoral students are members of research groups and participate in experimental work, data analysis, simulation studies or theory development, or any combination of these. We emphasize strongly "learning by doing" all the way from the weekly home exercises during the lecture courses to the PhD theses which in Finland consist typically of 4-6 peer-reviewed articles with a comprehensive introductory part.

  12. Space Weathering of Rocks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noble, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    Space weathering discussions have generally centered around soils but exposed rocks will also incur the effects of weathering. On the Moon, rocks make up only a very small percentage of the exposed surface and areas where rocks are exposed, like central peaks, are often among the least space weathered regions we find in remote sensing data. However, our studies of weathered Ap 17 rocks 76015 and 76237 show that significant amounts of weathering products can build up on rock surfaces. Because rocks have much longer surface lifetimes than an individual soil grain, and thus record a longer history of exposure, we can study these products to gain a deeper perspective on the weathering process and better assess the relative impo!1ance of various weathering components on the Moon. In contrast to the lunar case, on small asteroids, like Itokowa, rocks make up a large fraction of the exposed surface. Results from the Hayabusa spacecraft at Itokowa suggest that while the low gravity does not allow for the development of a mature regolith, weathering patinas can and do develop on rock surfaces, in fact, the rocky surfaces were seen to be darker and appear spectrally more weathered than regions with finer materials. To explore how weathering of asteroidal rocks may differ from lunar, a set of ordinary chondrite meteorites (H, L, and LL) which have been subjected to artificial space weathering by nanopulse laser were examined by TEM. NpFe(sup 0) bearing glasses were ubiquitous in both the naturally-weathered lunar and the artificially-weathered meteorite samples.

  13. Economic Impact of Fire Weather Forecasts

    Treesearch

    Don Gunasekera; Graham Mills; Mark Williams

    2006-01-01

    Southeastern Australia, where the State of Victoria is located is regarded as one of the most fire prone areas in the world. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology provides fire weather services in Victoria as part of a national framework for the provision of such services. These services range from fire weather warnings to special forecasts for hazard reduction burns....

  14. Forecasts of time averages with a numerical weather prediction model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roads, J. O.

    1986-01-01

    Forecasts of time averages of 1-10 days in duration by an operational numerical weather prediction model are documented for the global 500 mb height field in spectral space. Error growth in very idealized models is described in order to anticipate various features of these forecasts and in order to anticipate what the results might be if forecasts longer than 10 days were carried out by present day numerical weather prediction models. The data set for this study is described, and the equilibrium spectra and error spectra are documented; then, the total error is documented. It is shown how forecasts can immediately be improved by removing the systematic error, by using statistical filters, and by ignoring forecasts beyond about a week. Temporal variations in the error field are also documented.

  15. Toward a Space Weather Virtual Organization (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paxton, L. J.; Holm, J. M.; Schaefer, R. K.; Weiss, M.

    2009-12-01

    On the 150th anniversary of the Carrington Event, it behooves us to reflect upon the impact of space weather on our technology-intensive, communications-driven, socitey. Over the period since the last solar maximum in 2001, the commercial, defense department, and other national entities have become increasingly dependent on the electronic command, control, & communication systems that are vulnerable to Space Weather events. There has not been a concomitant increase in our ability to reliably predict space weather nor in our ability to separate natural effects from human ones. Now we need to quickly gear up space situational awareness capability in time for the next solar max predicted to occur in about 3-4 years. Unfortunately, space weather expertise is spread over institutions and academic disciplines and communication between space weather forecasters, forecast users, and the research community is poor. We would like to set up a demonstration space weather virtual organization to find a more efficient way to communicate and manage knowledge to ensure the operational community can get actionable information in a timely manner. We call this system concept SWIFTER-ACTION (Space Weather Informatics, Forecasting, and Technology through Enabling Research - Accessibility, Content, & Timely Information On the Network.) In this paper we provide an overview of the issues that must be addressed in order to transform data into knowledge that enables action.

  16. Weather forecasting support for AASE-2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Forbes, Gregory S.

    1992-01-01

    The AFEAS Contract and NASA Grant were awarded to Penn State in order to obtain real-time weather forecasting support for the NASA AASE-II Project, which was conducted between October 1991 and March 1992. Because of the special weather sensitivities of the NASA ER-2 aircraft, AASE-II planners felt that public weather forecasts issued by the National Weather Service would not be adequate for mission planning purposes. A likely consequence of resorting to that medium would have been that scientists would have had to be at work by 4 AM day after day in the hope that the aircraft could fly, only to be frustrated by a great number of 'scrubbed' missions. Thus, the Pennsylvania State University was contracted to provide real-time weather support to the AASE-II mission.

  17. Weather forecasting based on hybrid neural model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saba, Tanzila; Rehman, Amjad; AlGhamdi, Jarallah S.

    2017-02-01

    Making deductions and expectations about climate has been a challenge all through mankind's history. Challenges with exact meteorological directions assist to foresee and handle problems well in time. Different strategies have been investigated using various machine learning techniques in reported forecasting systems. Current research investigates climate as a major challenge for machine information mining and deduction. Accordingly, this paper presents a hybrid neural model (MLP and RBF) to enhance the accuracy of weather forecasting. Proposed hybrid model ensure precise forecasting due to the specialty of climate anticipating frameworks. The study concentrates on the data representing Saudi Arabia weather forecasting. The main input features employed to train individual and hybrid neural networks that include average dew point, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, average relative moistness, precipitation, normal wind speed, high wind speed and average cloudiness. The output layer composed of two neurons to represent rainy and dry weathers. Moreover, trial and error approach is adopted to select an appropriate number of inputs to the hybrid neural network. Correlation coefficient, RMSE and scatter index are the standard yard sticks adopted for forecast accuracy measurement. On individual standing MLP forecasting results are better than RBF, however, the proposed simplified hybrid neural model comes out with better forecasting accuracy as compared to both individual networks. Additionally, results are better than reported in the state of art, using a simple neural structure that reduces training time and complexity.

  18. National Weather Service Forecast Reference Evapotranspiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osborne, H. D.; Palmer, C. K.; Krone-Davis, P.; Melton, F. S.; Hobbins, M.

    2013-12-01

    The National Weather Service (NWS), Weather Forecasting Offices (WFOs) are producing daily reference evapotranspiration (ETrc) forecasts or FRET across the Western Region and in other selected locations since 2009, using the Penman - Monteith Reference Evapotranspiration equation for a short canopy (12 cm grasses), adopted by the Environmental Water Resources Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE-EWRI, 2004). The sensitivity of these daily calculations to fluctuations in temperatures, humidity, winds, and sky cover allows forecasters with knowledge of local terrain and weather patterns to better forecast in the ETrc inputs. The daily FRET product then evolved into a suite of products, including a weekly ETrc forecast for better water planning and a tabular point forecast for easy ingest into local water management-models. The ETrc forecast product suite allows water managers, the agricultural community, and the public to make more informed water-use decisions. These products permit operational planning, especially with the impending drought across much of the West. For example, the California Department of Water Resources not only ingests the FRET into their soil moisture models, but uses the FRET calculations when determining the reservoir releases in the Sacramento and American Rivers. We will also focus on the expansion of FRET verification, which compares the daily FRET to the observations of ETo from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) across California's Central Valley for the 2012 water year.

  19. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  20. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maddox, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M.; Rastaetter, L.; MacNeice, P. J.; Jain, P.; Garneau, J. W.; Berrios, D. H.; Pulkinnen, A.; Rowland, D.

    2008-12-01

    Space weather affects virtually all of NASA's endeavors, from robotic missions to human exploration. Knowledge and prediction of space weather conditions is therefore essential to NASA operations. The diverse nature of currently available space environment measurements and modeling products, along with the lack of single-portal access, renders its practical use for space weather analysis and forecasting unfeasible. There exists a compelling need for accurate real-time forecasting of both large-scale and local space environments - and their probable impacts for missions. A vital design driver for any system that is created to solve this problem lies in the fact that information needs to be presented in a form that is useful and as such, must be both easily accessible and understandable. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis System is a joint development project at NASA GSFC between the Space Weather Laboratory, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Applied Engineering & Technology Directorate, and NASA HQ Office Of Chief Engineer. The iSWA system will be a turnkey, web-based dissemination system for NASA-relevant space weather information that combines forecasts based on the most advanced space weather models with concurrent space environment information. It will be customer configurable and adaptable for use as a powerful decision making tool offering an unprecedented ability to analyze the present and expected future space weather impacts on virtually all NASA human and robotic missions. We will discuss some of the key design considerations for the system and present some of the initial space weather analysis products that have been created to date.

  1. News and Views: Transit events and resources; HST to use transit to probe venusian atmosphere; Now, the space weather forecast; Astronomy writing prize

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2012-06-01

    TRANSIT Early risers in the UK have the opportunity to see the final stages of the last transit of Venus for more than a century. TRANSIT Researchers interested in the atmosphere of Venus will be using the Hubble Space Telescope and the Moon to examine sunlight passing through the atmosphere during the transit of Venus this month. The technique is the same as that used to determine atmospheric constituents of transiting exoplanets. The Met Office is expanding its services to include operational space-weather forecasts for the UK, working with the research community to expand existing climate models. Further collaborative work will apply the enhanced model to extrasolar planets. The ESO and the STFC are organizing a Europe-wide competition for the very best in astronomy journalism in print, online or broadcast. The winner gets a trip to ESO's Very Large Telescope in Chile.

  2. Space Weather Workshop

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gallagher, D. L.

    2004-01-01

    This workshop will focus on what space weather is about and its impact on society. An overall picture will be "painted" describing the Sun's influence through the solar wind on the near-Earth space environment, including the aurora, killer electrons at geosynchronous orbit, million ampere electric currents through the ionosphere and along magnetic field lines, and the generation of giga-Watts of natural radio waves. Reference material in the form of Internet sites will be provided so that teachers can discuss space weather in the classroom and enable students to learn more about this topic.

  3. Space Weather Workshop

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gallagher, D. L.

    2004-01-01

    This workshop will focus on what space weather is about and its impact on society. An overall picture will be "painted" describing the Sun's influence through the solar wind on the near-Earth space environment, including the aurora, killer electrons at geosynchronous orbit, million ampere electric currents through the ionosphere and along magnetic field lines, and the generation of giga-Watts of natural radio waves. Reference material in the form of Internet sites will be provided so that teachers can discuss space weather in the classroom and enable students to learn more about this topic.

  4. Visually Comparing Weather Features in Forecasts.

    PubMed

    Quinan, P Samuel; Meyer, Miriah

    2016-01-01

    Meteorologists process and analyze weather forecasts using visualization in order to examine the behaviors of and relationships among weather features. In this design study conducted with meteorologists in decision support roles, we identified and attempted to address two significant common challenges in weather visualization: the employment of inconsistent and often ineffective visual encoding practices across a wide range of visualizations, and a lack of support for directly visualizing how different weather features relate across an ensemble of possible forecast outcomes. In this work, we present a characterization of the problems and data associated with meteorological forecasting, we propose a set of informed default encoding choices that integrate existing meteorological conventions with effective visualization practice, and we extend a set of techniques as an initial step toward directly visualizing the interactions of multiple features over an ensemble forecast. We discuss the integration of these contributions into a functional prototype tool, and also reflect on the many practical challenges that arise when working with weather data.

  5. NASA GSFC Space Weather Center - Innovative Space Weather Dissemination: Web-Interfaces, Mobile Applications, and More

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maddox, Marlo; Zheng, Yihua; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Lee, Hyesook; Chulaki, Anna; Hesse, Michael; Mullinix, Richard; Berrios, David

    2012-01-01

    The NASA GSFC Space Weather Center (http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov) is committed to providing forecasts, alerts, research, and educational support to address NASA's space weather needs - in addition to the needs of the general space weather community. We provide a host of services including spacecraft anomaly resolution, historical impact analysis, real-time monitoring and forecasting, custom space weather alerts and products, weekly summaries and reports, and most recently - video casts. There are many challenges in providing accurate descriptions of past, present, and expected space weather events - and the Space Weather Center at NASA GSFC employs several innovative solutions to provide access to a comprehensive collection of both observational data, as well as space weather model/simulation data. We'll describe the challenges we've faced with managing hundreds of data streams, running models in real-time, data storage, and data dissemination. We'll also highlight several systems and tools that are utilized by the Space Weather Center in our daily operations, all of which are available to the general community as well. These systems and services include a web-based application called the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov), two mobile space weather applications for both IOS and Android devices, an external API for web-service style access to data, google earth compatible data products, and a downloadable client-based visualization tool.

  6. Planetary Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grande, M.

    2012-04-01

    Invited Talk - Space weather at other planets While discussion of space weather effects has so far largely been confined to the near-Earth environment, there are significant present and future applications to the locations beyond, and to other planets. Most obviously, perhaps, are the radiation hazards experienced by astronauts on the way to, and on the surface of, the Moon and Mars. Indeed, the environment experienced by planetary spacecraft in transit and at their destinations is of course critical to their design and successful operation. The case of forthcoming missions to Jupiter and Europa is an exreme example. Moreover, such craft can provide information which in turn increases our understanding of geospace. Indeed, space weather may be a significant factor in the habitability of other solar system and extrasolar planets, and the ability of life to travel between them.

  7. WOD - Weather On Demand forecasting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rognvaldsson, Olafur; Ragnarsson, Logi; Stanislawska, Karolina

    2017-04-01

    The backbone of the Belgingur forecasting system (called WOD - Weather On Demand) is the WRF-Chem atmospheric model, with a number of in-house customisations. Initial and boundary data are taken from the Global Forecasting System, operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Operational forecasts use cycling of a number of parameters, mainly deep soil and surface fields. This is done to minimise spin-up effects and to ensure proper book-keeping of hydrological fields such as snow accumulation and runoff, as well as the constituents of various chemical parameters. The WOD system can be used to create conventional short- to medium-range weather forecasts for any location on the globe. The WOD system can also be used for air quality purposes (e.g. dispersion forecasts from volcanic eruptions) and as a tool to provide input to other modelling systems, such as hydrological models. A wide variety of post-processing options are also available, making WOD an ideal tool for creating highly customised output that can be tailored to the specific needs of individual end-users. The most recent addition to the WOD system is an integrated verification system where forecasts can be compared to surface observations from chosen locations. Forecast visualisation, such as weather charts, meteograms, weather icons and tables, is done via number of web components that can be configured to serve the varying needs of different end-users. The WOD system itself can be installed in an automatic way on hardware running a range of Linux based OS. System upgrades can also be done in semi-automatic fashion, i.e. upgrades and/or bug-fixes can be pushed to the end-user hardware without system downtime. Importantly, the WOD system requires only rudimentary knowledge of the WRF modelling, and the Linux operating systems on behalf of the end-user, making it an ideal NWP tool in locations with limited IT infrastructure.

  8. Very Short Range Statistical Forecasting of Automated Weather Observations.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    WEATHER FORECASTING, AUTOMATION, WEATHER , PREDICTIONS , MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS, STATISTICS, METEOROLOGICAL DATA, SHORT RANGE(TIME), MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, OPERATORS(MATHEMATICS), LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS, MARKOV PROCESSES.

  9. Tomorrow's Forecast: Oceans and Weather.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smigielski, Alan

    1995-01-01

    This issue of "Art to Zoo" focuses on weather and climate and is tied to the traveling exhibition Ocean Planet from the Smithsonian's National Museum of Natural History. The lessons encourage students to think about the profound influence the oceans have on planetary climate and life on earth. Sections of the lesson plan include: (1)…

  10. Towards a National Space Weather Predictive Capability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fox, N. J.; Ryschkewitsch, M. G.; Merkin, V. G.; Stephens, G. K.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Barnes, R. J.; Anderson, B. J.; Paxton, L. J.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Kelly, M. A.; Berger, T. E.; Bonadonna, L. C. M. F.; Hesse, M.; Sharma, S.

    2015-12-01

    National needs in the area of space weather informational and predictive tools are growing rapidly. Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socio-economic losses and impacts on our security. Future space exploration and most modern human endeavors will require major advances in physical understanding and improved transition of space research to operations. At present, only a small fraction of the latest research and development results from NASA, NOAA, NSF and DoD investments are being used to improve space weather forecasting and to develop operational tools. The power of modern research and space weather model development needs to be better utilized to enable comprehensive, timely, and accurate operational space weather tools. The mere production of space weather information is not sufficient to address the needs of those who are affected by space weather. A coordinated effort is required to support research-to-applications transition efforts and to develop the tools required those who rely on this information. In this presentation we will review the space weather system developed for the Van Allen Probes mission, together with other datasets, tools and models that have resulted from research by scientists at JHU/APL. We will look at how these, and results from future missions such as Solar Probe Plus, could be applied to support space weather applications in coordination with other community assets and capabilities.

  11. The Quest for the Perfect Weather Forecaster

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kahl, Jonathan; Horwitz, Kevin; Berg, Craig; Gruhl, Mary

    2004-01-01

    It is said that meteorology is the only profession where a person can be wrong half the time and still keep his or her job. The truth is not quite so bleak, but one can still ask, "Just how accurate are weather forecasters, anyway?" This article presents two projects for middle level students to investigate this issue in a hands-on,…

  12. Using Satellite Data in Weather Forecasting: I

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Suggs, Ronnie J.; Lecue, Juan M.

    2006-01-01

    The GOES Product Generation System (GPGS) is a set of computer codes and scripts that enable the assimilation of real-time Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data into regional-weather-forecasting mathematical models. The GPGS can be used to derive such geophysical parameters as land surface temperature, the amount of precipitable water, the degree of cloud cover, the surface albedo, and the amount of insolation from satellite measurements of radiant energy emitted by the Earth and its atmosphere. GPGS incorporates a priori information (initial guesses of thermodynamic parameters of the atmosphere) and radiometric measurements from the geostationary operational environmental satellites along with mathematical models of physical principles that govern the transfer of energy in the atmosphere. GPGS solves the radiative-transfer equation and provides the resulting data products in formats suitable for use by weather-forecasting computer programs. The data-assimilation capability afforded by GPGS offers the potential to improve local weather forecasts ranging from 3 hours to 2 days - especially with respect to temperature, humidity, cloud cover, and the probability of precipitation. The improvements afforded by GPGS could be of interest to news media, utility companies, and other organizations that utilize regional weather forecasts.

  13. The Quest for the Perfect Weather Forecaster

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kahl, Jonathan; Horwitz, Kevin; Berg, Craig; Gruhl, Mary

    2004-01-01

    It is said that meteorology is the only profession where a person can be wrong half the time and still keep his or her job. The truth is not quite so bleak, but one can still ask, "Just how accurate are weather forecasters, anyway?" This article presents two projects for middle level students to investigate this issue in a hands-on,…

  14. CCMC: Serving research and space weather communities with unique space weather services, innovative tools and resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Maddox, Marlo

    2015-04-01

    With the addition of Space Weather Research Center (a sub-team within CCMC) in 2010 to address NASA’s own space weather needs, CCMC has become a unique entity that not only facilitates research through providing access to the state-of-the-art space science and space weather models, but also plays a critical role in providing unique space weather services to NASA robotic missions, developing innovative tools and transitioning research to operations via user feedback. With scientists, forecasters and software developers working together within one team, through close and direct connection with space weather customers and trusted relationship with model developers, CCMC is flexible, nimble and effective to meet customer needs. In this presentation, we highlight a few unique aspects of CCMC/SWRC’s space weather services, such as addressing space weather throughout the solar system, pushing the frontier of space weather forecasting via the ensemble approach, providing direct personnel and tool support for spacecraft anomaly resolution, prompting development of multi-purpose tools and knowledge bases, and educating and engaging the next generation of space weather scientists.

  15. Adaptation of Mesoscale Weather Models to Local Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manobianco, John T.; Taylor, Gregory E.; Case, Jonathan L.; Dianic, Allan V.; Wheeler, Mark W.; Zack, John W.; Nutter, Paul A.

    2003-01-01

    Methodologies have been developed for (1) configuring mesoscale numerical weather-prediction models for execution on high-performance computer workstations to make short-range weather forecasts for the vicinity of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and (2) evaluating the performances of the models as configured. These methodologies have been implemented as part of a continuing effort to improve weather forecasting in support of operations of the U.S. space program. The models, methodologies, and results of the evaluations also have potential value for commercial users who could benefit from tailoring their operations and/or marketing strategies based on accurate predictions of local weather. More specifically, the purpose of developing the methodologies for configuring the models to run on computers at KSC and CCAFS is to provide accurate forecasts of winds, temperature, and such specific thunderstorm-related phenomena as lightning and precipitation. The purpose of developing the evaluation methodologies is to maximize the utility of the models by providing users with assessments of the capabilities and limitations of the models. The models used in this effort thus far include the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model ( Eta for short). The configuration of the MASS and RAMS is designed to run the models at very high spatial resolution and incorporate local data to resolve fine-scale weather features. Model preprocessors were modified to incorporate surface, ship, buoy, and rawinsonde data as well as data from local wind towers, wind profilers, and conventional or Doppler radars. The overall evaluation of the MASS, Eta, and RAMS was designed to assess the utility of these mesoscale models for satisfying the weather-forecasting needs of the U.S. space program. The evaluation methodology includes

  16. Progress in space weather predictions and applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lundstedt, H.

    The methods of today's predictions of space weather and effects are so much more advanced and yesterday's statistical methods are now replaced by integrated knowledge-based neuro-computing models and MHD methods. Within the ESA Space Weather Programme Study a real-time forecast service has been developed for space weather and effects. This prototype is now being implemented for specific users. Today's applications are not only so many more but also so much more advanced and user-oriented. A scientist needs real-time predictions of a global index as input for an MHD model calculating the radiation dose for EVAs. A power company system operator needs a prediction of the local value of a geomagnetically induced current. A science tourist needs to know whether or not aurora will occur. Soon we might even be able to predict the tropospheric climate changes and weather caused by the space weather.

  17. Strategy for future space weather observational assets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davies, Jackie; Bogdanova, Yulia; Harrison, Richard; Bisi, Mario; Hapgood, Mike

    2017-04-01

    Observations from an ad-hoc suite of mainly aging, scientific, space-borne assets currently underpin space weather forecasting capabilities world-wide. While efforts have begun to replace / supplement these assets - in particular with the recent launch of the DSCOVR spacecraft - it is widely accepted that there is an urgent need to accelerate these endeavours in order to mitigate the risk of losing these critical observations. It is hence opportune to critically review the possible options for the provision of space weather observations, particularly in terms of identifying the optimum vantage point(s) and the instrumentation that will provide the most beneficial measurements to support space weather prediction. Here we present the results of several recent European studies that aim to identify the best solution for space-based space weather monitoring - obviously within realistic financial constraints and bearing in mind the immediacy with which such a mission needs to be realised.

  18. Weather forecasting with open source software

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rautenhaus, Marc; Dörnbrack, Andreas

    2013-04-01

    To forecast the weather situation during aircraft-based atmospheric field campaigns, we employ a tool chain of existing and self-developed open source software tools and open standards. Of particular value are the Python programming language with its extension libraries NumPy, SciPy, PyQt4, Matplotlib and the basemap toolkit, the NetCDF standard with the Climate and Forecast (CF) Metadata conventions, and the Open Geospatial Consortium Web Map Service standard. These open source libraries and open standards helped to implement the "Mission Support System", a Web Map Service based tool to support weather forecasting and flight planning during field campaigns. The tool has been implemented in Python and has also been released as open source (Rautenhaus et al., Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 55-71, 2012). In this presentation we discuss the usage of free and open source software for weather forecasting in the context of research flight planning, and highlight how the field campaign work benefits from using open source tools and open standards.

  19. Space Weather Products at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Maddox, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Berrios, D.; MacNeice, P.

    2010-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second CCMC activity is to support Space Weather forecasting at national Space Weather Forecasting Centers. This second activity involves model evaluations, model transitions to operations, and the development of space weather forecasting tools. Owing to the pace of development in the science community, new model capabilities emerge frequently. Consequently, space weather products and tools involve not only increased validity, but often entirely new capabilities. This presentation will review the present state of space weather tools as well as point out emerging future capabilities.

  20. Activities of NICT space weather project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murata, Ken T.; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Watari, Shinichi; Shinagawa, Hiroyuki; Ishii, Mamoru

    NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar

  1. Forecasting space weather: Using ACE data to provide real-time predictions of high-intensity energetic storm particle events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagstaff, K.; Ho, G. C.; Vandegriff, J.; Plauger, J.

    2003-04-01

    Geo-effective interplanetary (IP) shocks are often accompanied by Energetic Storm Particle (ESP) events, during which the intensity of charged particles can increase by several orders of magnitude. Such high intensities of incident ions present a radiation hazard to astronauts and electronics in Earth orbit. Observations by NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft indicate that these events are usually preceded by characteristic signatures in the ion intensities, thus providing an opportunity for predicting the events before they arrive. We have developed an algorithm that can forecast the arrival of ESP events. Using historical ion data from ACE, we trained an artificial neural network to detect the characteristic signals that warn of an impending event. The network predicts the time remaining until the maximum intensity is reached. We trained the network on 37 events, from 1997 to 2002, and tested it on a separate set of 18 events from the same time period. Initial performance of the network is very encouraging; the average uncertainty in predictions made 24 hours in advance is 9.4 hours, while the uncertainty improves to 4.9 hours when the event is 12 hours away. Recently, we have integrated our predictive algorithm in a system that uses real-time ACE data provided by the NOAA Space Environment Center. This system continually processes the latest ACE data and reports whether or not there is an impending ESP event. After detecting an event, our algorithm predicts the time remaining until the peak intensity occurs. For example, on November 25, 2002, our real-time system successfully detected an upcoming event and steadily produced predictions until the corresponding IP shock hit, at 9:45 p.m. on November 26, 2002. By providing a significant amount of lead-time, as well updated predictions every five minutes, this system can be a crucial source of information to mission planners, satellite operations controllers, and scientists.

  2. Visualizing Uncertainty for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting based on Reforecast Analogs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pelorosso, Leandro; Diehl, Alexandra; Matković, Krešimir; Delrieux, Claudio; Ruiz, Juan; Gröeller, M. Eduard; Bruckner, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    Numerical weather forecasts are prone to uncertainty coming from inaccuracies in the initial and boundary conditions and lack of precision in numerical models. Ensemble of forecasts partially addresses these problems by considering several runs of the numerical model. Each forecast is generated with different initial and boundary conditions and different model configurations [GR05]. The ensembles can be expressed as probabilistic forecasts, which have proven to be very effective in the decision-making processes [DE06]. The ensemble of forecasts represents only some of the possible future atmospheric states, usually underestimating the degree of uncertainty in the predictions [KAL03, PH06]. Hamill and Whitaker [HW06] introduced the "Reforecast Analog Regression" (RAR) technique to overcome the limitations of ensemble forecasting. This technique produces probabilistic predictions based on the analysis of historical forecasts and observations. Visual analytics provides tools for processing, visualizing, and exploring data to get new insights and discover hidden information patterns in an interactive exchange between the user and the application [KMS08]. In this work, we introduce Albero, a visual analytics solution for probabilistic weather forecasting based on the RAR technique. Albero targets at least two different type of users: "forecasters", who are meteorologists working in operational weather forecasting and "researchers", who work in the construction of numerical prediction models. Albero is an efficient tool for analyzing precipitation forecasts, allowing forecasters to make and communicate quick decisions. Our solution facilitates the analysis of a set of probabilistic forecasts, associated statistical data, observations and uncertainty. A dashboard with small-multiples of probabilistic forecasts allows the forecasters to analyze at a glance the distribution of probabilities as a function of time, space, and magnitude. It provides the user with a more

  3. Towards a National Space Weather Predictive Capability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fox, N. J.; Lindstrom, K. L.; Ryschkewitsch, M. G.; Anderson, B. J.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Merkin, V. G.; Kelly, M. A.; Miller, E. S.; Sitnov, M. I.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Erlandson, R. E.; Barnes, R. J.; Paxton, L. J.; Sotirelis, T.; Stephens, G.; Comberiate, J.

    2014-12-01

    National needs in the area of space weather informational and predictive tools are growing rapidly. Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socio-economic losses and impacts on our security. Future space exploration and most modern human endeavors will require major advances in physical understanding and improved transition of space research to operations. At present, only a small fraction of the latest research and development results from NASA, NOAA, NSF and DoD investments are being used to improve space weather forecasting and to develop operational tools. The power of modern research and space weather model development needs to be better utilized to enable comprehensive, timely, and accurate operational space weather tools. The mere production of space weather information is not sufficient to address the needs of those who are affected by space weather. A coordinated effort is required to support research-to-applications transition efforts and to develop the tools required those who rely on this information. In this presentation we will review datasets, tools and models that have resulted from research by scientists at JHU/APL, and examine how they could be applied to support space weather applications in coordination with other community assets and capabilities.

  4. Pilot based frameworks for Weather Research Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganapathi, Dinesh Prasanth

    The Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) domain consists of complex workflows that demand the use of Distributed Computing Infrastructure (DCI). Weather forecasting requires that weather researchers use different set of initial conditions and one or a combination of physics models on the same set of input data. For these type of simulations an ensemble based computing approach becomes imperative. Most DCIs have local job-schedulers that have no smart way of dealing with the execution of an ensemble type of computational problem as the job-schedulers are built to cater to the bare essentials of resource allocation. This means the weather scientists have to submit multiple jobs to the job-scheduler. In this dissertation we use Pilot-Job based tools to decouple work-load submission and resource allocation therefore streamlining the complex workflows in Weather Research and Forecasting domain and reduce their overall time to completion. We also achieve location independent job execution, data movement, placement and processing. Next, we create the necessary enablers to run an ensemble of tasks bearing the capability to run on multiple heterogeneous distributed computing resources there by creating the opportunity to minimize the overall time consumed in running the models. Our experiments show that the tools developed exhibit very good, strong and weak scaling characteristics. These results bear the potential to change the way weather researchers are submitting traditional WRF jobs to the DCIs by giving them a powerful weapon in their arsenal that can exploit the combined power of various heterogeneous DCIs that could otherwise be difficult to harness owing to interoperability issues.

  5. How some nonmeteorological professionals view meteorology and weather forecasting.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scoggins, J. R.; Vaughan, W. W.

    1971-01-01

    The results of a questionnaire designed to gather information on how nonmeteorological scientists and engineers view meteorology and weather forecasting are summarized in this paper. The respondents were from two organizations, Texas A & M University and NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, the first representing the academic community and the latter the engineering community. While there were some differences between the groups, in most cases answers expressed in the opinionnaire by the two groups were essentially identical. The results revealed the following: Approximately three-fourths of the respondents use meteorological data and/or weather forecasts in their profession; the meaning of probability forecasts is very unclear with only 13% indicating the correct answer; television is the main source of weather information; approximately half of the respondents had never heard of the Global Atmospheric Research Program; and the opinion was almost unanimous that satellites had contributed significantly to weather observations and/or forecasts. Also, the results indicated a number of other ?problem' areas where some improvements are desired.

  6. How some nonmeteorological professionals view meteorology and weather forecasting.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scoggins, J. R.; Vaughan, W. W.

    1971-01-01

    The results of a questionnaire designed to gather information on how nonmeteorological scientists and engineers view meteorology and weather forecasting are summarized in this paper. The respondents were from two organizations, Texas A & M University and NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, the first representing the academic community and the latter the engineering community. While there were some differences between the groups, in most cases answers expressed in the opinionnaire by the two groups were essentially identical. The results revealed the following: Approximately three-fourths of the respondents use meteorological data and/or weather forecasts in their profession; the meaning of probability forecasts is very unclear with only 13% indicating the correct answer; television is the main source of weather information; approximately half of the respondents had never heard of the Global Atmospheric Research Program; and the opinion was almost unanimous that satellites had contributed significantly to weather observations and/or forecasts. Also, the results indicated a number of other ?problem' areas where some improvements are desired.

  7. Space Weather Ballooning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, Tony; Johnson, Sam; Koske-Phillips, Amelia; White, Michael; Yarborough, Amelia; Lamb, Aaron; Herbst, Anna; Molina, Ferris; Gilpin, Justin; Grah, Olivia; Perez, Ginger; Reid, Carson; Harvey, Joey; Schultz, Jamie

    2016-10-01

    We have developed a "Space Weather Buoy" for measuring upper atmospheric radiation from cosmic rays and solar storms. The Buoy, which is carried to the stratosphere by helium balloons, is relatively inexpensive and uses off-the-shelf technology accessible to small colleges and high schools. Using this device, we have measured two Forbush Decreases and a small surge in atmospheric radiation during the St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm of March 2015.

  8. Thermospheric Space Weather Modeling

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-06-01

    atmospheric temperature V = satellite velocity relative to the ambient gas ’ Senior physicist, Space Weather Center of Excellence, Mail Stop: VSBXT; Member...where temperature rises drastically to -600 - 2000 K. The density and hence drag in this region is driven mainly by two solar influences: directly by EUV...bulge that drives winds to transport heat away from the hot dayside toward the Earth’s cold nightside. Temperatures on the dayside are typically 30

  9. Probability fire weather forecasts .. show promise in 3-year trial

    Treesearch

    Paul G. Scowcroft

    1970-01-01

    Probability fire weather forecasts were compared with categorical and climatological forecasts in a trial in southern California during the 1965-1967 fire seasons. Equations were developed to express the reliability of forecasts and degree of skill shown by the forecaster. Evaluation of 336 daily reports suggests that probability forecasts were more reliable. For...

  10. Cosmic rays and space weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorman, L. I.

    2003-04-01

    influenced very much on communications, working of navigation systems, satellites and high-level technology systems in space and, the atmosphere, and on the ground). The review and original part will contain following parts: 1. Introduction (cosmic rays as object and instrument of space weather monitoring and forecasting). 2. On-line search of the start of great Flare Energetic Particle (FEP) events, automatically formation of Alerts, estimation of probability of false alerts and probability of missing alerts (realized in Israel Cosmic Ray Center and Emilio Segre’ Observatory). 3. On-line determination of flare energetic particle spectrum by the method of coupling functions. 4. Automatically determination of diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space, time of ejection and energy spectrum of FEP in source; forecasting of expected FEP flux and radiation hazard for space-probes in space, satellites in the magnetosphere, jets and various objects in the atmosphere, and on the ground in dependence of cut-off rigidity. 5. Cosmic ray using for forecasting of major geomagnetic storms accompanied by Forbush-effects.

  11. Chemical weather forecasting for the Yangtze River Delta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Y.; Xu, J.; Zhou, G.; Chang, L.; Chen, B.

    2016-12-01

    Shanghai is one of the largest megacities in the world. With rapid economic growth of the city and its surrounding areas in recent years, air pollution has posed adverse effects on public health and ecosystem. In winter heavy pollution episodes are often associated with PM exceedances under stagnant conditions or transport events, whereas in summer the region frequently experiences elevated O3 levels. Chemical weather prediction systems with the WRF-Chem and CMAQ models are being developed to support air quality and haze forecasting for Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta region. We will present main components of the modeling system, forecasting products, as well as evaluation results. Evaluation of the WRF-Chem forecasts show the model has generally good ability to capture the temporal variations of O3 and PM2.5. Substantial regional differences exist, with the best performance in Shanghai. Meanwhile, the forecasts tend to degrade during highly polluted episodes and transitional time periods, which highlights the need to improve model representation of key process (e.g. meteorological fields and formation of secondary pollutants). Recent work includes using the ECMWF global model forecasts as chemical boundary conditions for our regional model. We investigate the impact of chemical downscaling, and also compare the results from different models participated in the PANDA (PArtnership with chiNa on space Data) project. Results from ongoing efforts (e.g. chemical weather forecasting driven by SMS regional high resolution NWP) will also be presented.

  12. Highlights of Space Weather Services/Capabilities at NASA/GSFC Space Weather Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fok, Mei-Ching; Zheng, Yihua; Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, Maria; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Mays, Leila; Chulaki, Anna; Lee, Hyesook

    2012-01-01

    The importance of space weather has been recognized world-wide. Our society depends increasingly on technological infrastructure, including the power grid as well as satellites used for communication and navigation. Such technologies, however, are vulnerable to space weather effects caused by the Sun's variability. NASA GSFC's Space Weather Center (SWC) (http://science.gsfc.nasa.gov//674/swx services/swx services.html) has developed space weather products/capabilities/services that not only respond to NASA's needs but also address broader interests by leveraging the latest scientific research results and state-of-the-art models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC: http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov). By combining forefront space weather science and models, employing an innovative and configurable dissemination system (iSWA.gsfc.nasa.gov), taking advantage of scientific expertise both in-house and from the broader community as well as fostering and actively participating in multilateral collaborations both nationally and internationally, NASA/GSFC space weather Center, as a sibling organization to CCMC, is poised to address NASA's space weather needs (and needs of various partners) and to help enhancing space weather forecasting capabilities collaboratively. With a large number of state-of-the-art physics-based models running in real-time covering the whole space weather domain, it offers predictive capabilities and a comprehensive view of space weather events throughout the solar system. In this paper, we will provide some highlights of our service products/capabilities. In particular, we will take the 23 January and the 27 January space weather events as examples to illustrate how we can use the iSWA system to track them in the interplanetary space and forecast their impacts.

  13. Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Yao; Sridhar, Banavar

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60- minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times under one-hour showed that the errors in

  14. Can We Trust Long-Range Weather Forecasts ?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mailier, Pascal

    2010-05-01

    Long-range weather forecasts are widely used in key sectors of the economy, but too often their properties and limitations are not understood well enough. This poster reviews the characteristics, methods and reliability of long-range weather forecasts, making recommendations regarding their use and quality assessment. Despite their limited skill, long-range weather forecasts can still be a valuable tool for managing weather risk provided the necessary caution is exercised.

  15. Bringing Space Weather Down to Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reiff, P. H.; Sumners, C.

    2005-05-01

    Most of the public has no idea what Space Weather is, but a number of innovative programs, web sites, magazine articles, TV shows and planetarium shows have taken space weather from an unknown quantity to a much more visible field. This paper reviews new developments, including the new Space Weather journal, the very popular spaceweather.com website, new immersive planetarium shows that can go "on the road", and well-publicized Sun-Earth Day activities. Real-time data and reasonably accurate spaceweather forecasts are available from several websites, with many subscribers. Even the renaissance of amateur radio because of Homeland Security brings a new generation of learners to wonder what is going on in the Sun today. The NSF Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling has a dedicated team to reach both the public and a greater diversity of new scientists.

  16. Review on space weather in Latin America. 2. The research networks ready for space weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dasso, Sergio; Gonzalez-Esparza, J. Americo

    2016-11-01

    The present work is the second of a three-part review of space weather in Latin America, specifically observing its evolution in three countries (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico). This work comprises a summary of scientific challenges in space weather research that are considered to be open scientific questions and how they are being addressed in terms of instrumentation by the international community, including the Latin American groups. We also provide an inventory of the networks and collaborations being constructed in Latin America, including details on the data processing, capabilities and a basic description of the resulting variables. These instrumental networks currently used for space science research are gradually being incorporated into the space weather monitoring data pipelines as their data provides key variables for monitoring and forecasting space weather, which allow these centers to monitor space weather and issue watches, warnings and alerts.

  17. Resolution of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts with Application in Disease Management.

    PubMed

    Hughes, G; McRoberts, N; Burnett, F J

    2017-02-01

    Predictive systems in disease management often incorporate weather data among the disease risk factors, and sometimes this comes in the form of forecast weather data rather than observed weather data. In such cases, it is useful to have an evaluation of the operational weather forecast, in addition to the evaluation of the disease forecasts provided by the predictive system. Typically, weather forecasts and disease forecasts are evaluated using different methodologies. However, the information theoretic quantity expected mutual information provides a basis for evaluating both kinds of forecast. Expected mutual information is an appropriate metric for the average performance of a predictive system over a set of forecasts. Both relative entropy (a divergence, measuring information gain) and specific information (an entropy difference, measuring change in uncertainty) provide a basis for the assessment of individual forecasts.

  18. Development of a High Resolution Weather Forecast Model for Mesoamerica Using the NASA Ames Code I Private Cloud Computing Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molthan, Andrew; Case, Jonathan; Venner, Jason; Moreno-Madrinan, Max J.; Delgado, Francisco

    2012-01-01

    Two projects at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have collaborated to develop a high resolution weather forecast model for Mesoamerica: The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, which integrates unique NASA satellite and weather forecast modeling capabilities into the operational weather forecasting community. NASA's SERVIR Program, which integrates satellite observations, ground-based data, and forecast models to improve disaster response in Central America, the Caribbean, Africa, and the Himalayas.

  19. Communicating Environmental Uncertainty: The Nature of Weather Forecasts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Travis, Richard W.; Riebsame, William E.

    1979-01-01

    Traces the path of weather forecasts from the time they are made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration until the time they are received by the public through the mass media. The purpose of the article is to provide geography teachers with basic information on weather forecasts, interpretation of forecast terms, and indications…

  20. Communicating Environmental Uncertainty: The Nature of Weather Forecasts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Travis, Richard W.; Riebsame, William E.

    1979-01-01

    Traces the path of weather forecasts from the time they are made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration until the time they are received by the public through the mass media. The purpose of the article is to provide geography teachers with basic information on weather forecasts, interpretation of forecast terms, and indications…

  1. The New Space Weather Action Center; the Next Level on Space Weather Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Lewis, E. M.; Cline, T. D.; MacDonald, E.

    2016-12-01

    The Space Weather Action Center (SWAC) provides access for students to near real-time space weather data, and a set of easy instructions and well-defined protocols that allow them to correctly interpret such data. It is a student centered approach to teaching science and technology in classrooms, as students are encouraged to act like real scientists by accessing, collecting, analyzing, recording, and communicating space weather forecasts. Integration and implementation of several programs will enhance and provide a rich education experience for students' grades 5-16. We will enhance the existing data and tutorials available using the Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) tool created by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA GSFC. iSWA is a flexible, turn-key, customer-configurable, Web-based dissemination system for NASA-relevant space weather information that combines data based on the most advanced space weather models available through the CCMC with concurrent space environment information. This tool provides an additional component by the use of videos and still imagery from different sources as a tool for educators to effectively show what happens during an eruption from the surface of the Sun. We will also update content on the net result of space weather forecasting that the public can experience by including Aurorasaurus, a well established, growing, modern, innovative, interdisciplinary citizen science project centered around the public's visibility of the northern lights with mobile applications via the use of social media connections.

  2. Ionosphere-thermosphere space weather issues.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.

    1996-10-01

    Weather disturbances in the ionosphere-thermosphere system can have a detrimental effect on both ground-based and space-based systems. Because of this impact and because this field has matured, it is now appropriate to develop specification and forecast models, with the aim of eventually predicting the occurrence, duration, and intensity of weather effects. As part of the new National Space Weather Program, the CEDAR community will focus on science issues concerning space weather, and this tutorial/review is an expanded version of a tutorial presentation given at the recent CEDAR annual meeting. The tutorial/review provides a brief discussion of weather disturbances and features, the causes of weather, and the status of weather modeling. The features and disturbances discussed include plasma patches, boundary and auroral blobs, Sun-aligned polar cap arcs, the effects of traveling convection vortices and SAID events, the lifetime of density structures, sporadic-E and intermediate layers, spread F and equatorial plasma bubbles, geomagnetic storms and substorms, traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs), and the effects of tides and gravity waves propagating from the lower atmosphere. The tutorial/review is only intended to provide an overview of some of the important scientific issues concerning ionospheric-thermospheric weather, with the emphasis on the ionosphere. Tutorials on thermospheric and magnetospheric weather issues are given in companion papers.

  3. Space Weathering of Lunar Rocks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noble, S. K.; Keller, L. P.; Christoffersen, R.; Rahman, Z.

    2012-01-01

    All materials exposed at the lunar surface undergo space weathering processes. On the Moon, boulders make up only a small percentage of the exposed surface, and areas where such rocks are exposed, like central peaks, are often among the least space weathered regions identified from remote sensing data. Yet space weathered surfaces (patina) are relatively common on returned rock samples, some of which directly sample the surface of larger boulders. Because, as witness plates to lunar space weathering, rocks and boulders experience longer exposure times compared to lunar soil grains, they allow us to develop a deeper perspective on the relative importance of various weathering processes as a function of time.

  4. Browsing Space Weather Data and Models with the Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maddox, Marlo M.; Mullinix, Richard E.; Berrios, David H.; Hesse, Michael; Rastaetter, Lutz; Pulkkinen, Antti; Hourcle, Joseph A.; Thompson, Barbara J.

    2011-01-01

    The Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System is a comprehensive web-based platform for space weather information that combines data from solar, heliospheric and geospace observatories with forecasts based on the most advanced space weather models. The iSWA system collects, generates, and presents a wide array of space weather resources in an intuitive, user-configurable, and adaptable format - thus enabling users to respond to current and future space weather impacts as well as enabling post-impact analysis. iSWA currently provides over 200 data and modeling products, and features a variety of tools that allow the user to browse, combine, and examine data and models from various sources. This presentation will consist of a summary of the iSWA products and an overview of the customizable user interfaces, and will feature several tutorial demonstrations highlighting the interactive tools and advanced capabilities.

  5. Time-Hierarchical Clustering and Visualization of Weather Forecast Ensembles.

    PubMed

    Ferstl, Florian; Kanzler, Mathias; Rautenhaus, Marc; Westermann, Rudiger

    2017-01-01

    We propose a new approach for analyzing the temporal growth of the uncertainty in ensembles of weather forecasts which are started from perturbed but similar initial conditions. As an alternative to traditional approaches in meteorology, which use juxtaposition and animation of spaghetti plots of iso-contours, we make use of contour clustering and provide means to encode forecast dynamics and spread in one single visualization. Based on a given ensemble clustering in a specified time window, we merge clusters in time-reversed order to indicate when and where forecast trajectories start to diverge. We present and compare different visualizations of the resulting time-hierarchical grouping, including space-time surfaces built by connecting cluster representatives over time, and stacked contour variability plots. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our visual encodings with forecast examples of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which convey the evolution of specific features in the data as well as the temporally increasing spatial variability.

  6. Solar EUV irradiance for space weather applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viereck, R. A.

    2015-12-01

    Solar EUV irradiance is an important driver of space weather models. Large changes in EUV and x-ray irradiances create large variability in the ionosphere and thermosphere. Proxies such as the F10.7 cm radio flux, have provided reasonable estimates of the EUV flux but as the space weather models become more accurate and the demands of the customers become more stringent, proxies are no longer adequate. Furthermore, proxies are often provided only on a daily basis and shorter time scales are becoming important. Also, there is a growing need for multi-day forecasts of solar EUV irradiance to drive space weather forecast models. In this presentation we will describe the needs and requirements for solar EUV irradiance information from the space weather modeler's perspective. We will then translate these requirements into solar observational requirements such as spectral resolution and irradiance accuracy. We will also describe the activities at NOAA to provide long-term solar EUV irradiance observations and derived products that are needed for real-time space weather modeling.

  7. Space Weather Studies at Istanbul Technical University

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaymaz, Zerefsan

    2016-07-01

    This presentation will introduce the Upper Atmosphere and Space Weather Laboratory of Istanbul Technical University (ITU). It has been established to support the educational needs of the Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics in 2011 to conduct scientific research in Space Weather, Space Environment, Space Environment-Spacecraft Interactions, Space instrumentation and Upper Atmospheric studies. Currently the laboratory has some essential infrastructure and the most instrumentation for ionospheric observations and ground induced currents from the magnetosphere. The laboratory has two subunits: SWIFT dealing with Space Weather Instrumentation and Forecasting unit and SWDPA dealing with Space Weather Data Processing and Analysis. The research area covers wide range of upper atmospheric and space science studies from ionosphere, ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling, magnetic storms and magnetospheric substorms, distant magnetotail, magnetopause and bow shock studies, as well as solar and solar wind disturbances and their interaction with the Earth's space environment. We also study the spacecraft environment interaction and novel plasma instrument design. Several scientific projects have been carried out in the laboratory. Operational objectives of our laboratory will be carried out with the collaboration of NASA's Space Weather Laboratory and the facilities are in the process of integration to their prediction services. Educational and research objectives, as well as the examples from the research carried out in our laboratory will be demonstrated in this presentation.

  8. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yohe, Gary W.

    Researchers who ponder the value of information work in the world of integrated assessment. They study the creation of scientific knowledge from models and data and view the processing and analysis of knowledge through the creation and distribution of information. They understand that the value of this information is derived fundamentally from how it is used. Therefore, such researchers must investigate how and where individuals (and the institutions and systems that individuals create) uncover information that they find credible and how and why those same individuals, institutions, and systems discard information that they find incredible. The essays presented in Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts are a perfect example of how practicing researchers confront this integration process in an area in which just about everyone has an opinion—the weather.

  9. Commercial Space Tourism and Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, Ronald

    2007-08-01

    Space tourism, a concept which even a few years ago was perveived as science fantasy, is now a credible industry. Five individuals have paid up to $25 M to spend more than a week on the International Space Station. Several enterprises are working toward viable suborbital and orbital private space operations. while operational space weather support to human space flight has been the domain of government entities the emergence of space tourism now presents a new opportunity for the commercial space weather community. This article examines the space weather impact on crews and passengers of the future space tourism industry.

  10. Small Sensors for Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicholas, A. C.

    2015-12-01

    The Naval Research Laboratory is actively pursuing enhancing the nation's space weather sensing capability. One aspect of this plan is the concept of flying Space Weather sensor suites on host spacecraft as secondary payloads. The emergence and advancement of the CubeSat spacecraft architecture has produced a viable platform for scientifically and operationally relevant Space Weather sensing. This talk will provide an overview of NRL's low size weight and power sensor technologies targeting Space Weather measurements. A summary of on-orbit results of past and current missions will be presented, as well as an overview of future flights that are manifested and potential constellation missions.

  11. Updates on CCMC Activities and GSFC Space Weather Services

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhengm Y.; Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Maddox, M.; Taktakishvili, A.; Berrios, D.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Macneice, P.; Mays, L.; Mendoza, A. M.; Mullinix, R.

    2011-01-01

    In this presentation, we provide updates on CCMC modeling activities, CCMC metrics and validation studies, and other CCMC efforts. In addition, an overview of GSFC Space Weather Services (a sibling organization to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) and its products/capabilities will be given. We show how some of the research grade models, if running in an operational mode, can help address NASA's space weather needs by providing forecasting/now casting capabilities of significant space weather events throughout the solar system.

  12. Innovative Information Technology for Space Weather Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, H.; Qu, M.; Shih, F.; Denker, C.; Gerbessiotis, A.; Lofdahl, M.; Rees, D.; Keller, C.

    2004-05-01

    Solar activity is closely related to the near earth environment -- summarized descriptively as space weather. Changes in space weather have adverse effect on many aspects of life and systems on earth and in space. Real-time, high-quality data and data processing would be a key element to forecast space weather promptly and accurately. Recently, we obtained a funding from US National Science Foundation to apply innovative information technology for space weather prediction. (1) We use the technologies of image processing and pattern recognition, such as image morphology segmentation, Support Vector Machines (SVMs), and neural networks to detect and characterize three important solar activities in real-time: filament eruptions, flares, and emerging flux regions (EFRs). Combining the real time detection with the recent statistical study on the relationship among filament eruptions, flares, EFRs, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and geomagnetic storms, we are establishing real time report of solar events and automatic forecasting of earth directed CMEs and subsequent geomagnetic storms. (2) We combine state-of-art parallel computing techniques with phase diverse speckle imaging techniques, to yield near real-time diffraction limited images with a cadence of approximately 10 sec. We utilize the multiplicity of parallel paradigms to optimize the calculation of phase diverse speckle imaging to improve calculation speed. With such data, we can monitor flare producing active regions continuously and carry out targeted studies of the evolution and flows in flare producing active regions. (3) We are developing Web based software tools to post our processed data, events and forecasting in real time, and to be integrated with current solar activity and space weather prediction Web pages at BBSO. This will also be a part of Virtual Solar Observatory (VSO) being developed by the solar physics community. This research is supported by NSF ITR program.

  13. International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, Nat; Davila, Joseph M.

    2010-01-01

    The International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is an international scientific program to understand the external drivers of space weather. The science and applications of space weather has been brought to prominence because of the rapid development of space based technology that is useful for all human beings. The ISWI program has its roots in the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) program that ran during 2007 - 2009. The primary objective of the ISWI program is to advance the space weather science by a combination of instrument deployment, analysis and interpretation of space weather data from the deployed instruments in conjunction with space data, and communicate the results to the public and students. Like the IHY, the ISWI will be a grass roots organization with key participation from national coordinators in cooperation with an international steering committee. This talk outlines the ISWI program including its organization and proposed activities.

  14. International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, Nat; Davila, Joseph M.

    2010-01-01

    The International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is an international scientific program to understand the external drivers of space weather. The science and applications of space weather has been brought to prominence because of the rapid development of space based technology that is useful for all human beings. The ISWI program has its roots in the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) program that ran during 2007 - 2009. The primary objective of the ISWI program is to advance the space weather science by a combination of instrument deployment, analysis and interpretation of space weather data from the deployed instruments in conjunction with space data, and communicate the results to the public and students. Like the IHY, the ISWI will be a grass roots organization with key participation from national coordinators in cooperation with an international steering committee. This talk outlines the ISWI program including its organization and proposed activities.

  15. Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III; Hood, Doris

    2009-01-01

    Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Shuttle Flight Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to create a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) that indicates the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input. The tool creates a graphic depicting the potential location of thunderstorm anvils one, two, and three hours into the future. The locations are based on the average of the upper level observed or forecasted winds. The graphic includes 10 and 20 n mi standoff circles centered at the location of interest, as well as one-, two-, and three-hour arcs in the upwind direction. The arcs extend outward across a 30 sector width based on a previous AMU study that determined thunderstorm anvils move in a direction plus or minus 15 of the upper-level wind direction. The AMU was then tasked to transition the tool to the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). SMG later requested the tool be updated to provide more flexibility and quicker access to model data. This presentation describes the work performed by the AMU to transition the tool into AWIPS, as well as the subsequent improvements made to the tool.

  16. Space Weather Outreach: Connection to STEM Standards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dusenbery, P. B.

    2008-12-01

    Many scientists are studying the Sun-Earth system and attempting to provide timely, accurate, and reliable space environment observations and forecasts. Research programs and missions serve as an ideal focal point for creating educational content, making this an ideal time to inform the public about the importance and value of space weather research. In order to take advantage of this opportunity, the Space Science Institute (SSI) is developing a comprehensive Space Weather Outreach program to reach students, educators, and other members of the public, and share with them the exciting discoveries from this important scientific discipline. The Space Weather Outreach program has the following five components: (1) the Space Weather Center Website that includes online educational games; (2) Small Exhibits for Libraries, Shopping Malls, and Science Centers; (3) After-School Programs; (4) Professional Development Workshops for Educators, and (5) an innovative Evaluation and Education Research project. Its overarching goal is to inspire, engage, and educate a broad spectrum of the public and make strategic and innovative connections between informal and K-12 education communities. An important factor in the success of this program will be its alignment with STEM standards especially those related to science and mathematics. This presentation will describe the Space Weather Outreach program and how standards are being used in the development of each of its components.

  17. Presenting Critical Space Weather Information to Customers and Stakeholders (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viereck, R. A.; Singer, H. J.; Murtagh, W. J.; Rutledge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Space weather involves changes in the near-Earth space environment that impact technological systems such as electric power, radio communication, satellite navigation (GPS), and satellite opeartions. As with terrestrial weather, there are several different kinds of space weather and each presents unique challenges to the impacted technologies and industries. But unlike terrestrial weather, many customers are not fully aware of space weather or how it impacts their systems. This issue is further complicated by the fact that the largest space weather events occur very infrequently with years going by without severe storms. Recent reports have estimated very large potential costs to the economy and to society if a geomagnetic storm were to cause major damage to the electric power transmission system. This issue has come to the attention of emergency managers and federal agencies including the office of the president. However, when considering space weather impacts, it is essential to also consider uncertainties in the frequency of events and the predicted impacts. The unique nature of space weather storms, the specialized technologies that are impacted by them, and the disparate groups and agencies that respond to space weather forecasts and alerts create many challenges to the task of communicating space weather information to the public. Many customers that receive forecasts and alerts are highly technical and knowledgeable about the subtleties of the space environment. Others know very little and require ongoing education and explanation about how a space weather storm will affect their systems. In addition, the current knowledge and understanding of the space environment that goes into forecasting storms is quite immature. It has only been within the last five years that physics-based models of the space environment have played important roles in predictions. Thus, the uncertainties in the forecasts are quite large. There is much that we don't know about space

  18. The Origin of "Space Weather"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cade, William B.; Chan-Park, Christina

    2015-02-01

    Although "space weather" is a fairly recent term, there is a rich history of similar terms being used beginning in the middle to late 1800s. "Solar meteorology," "magnetic weather," and "cosmic meteorology" all appeared during that time frame. The actual first appearance of space weather can be attributed to the publication Science News Letter in 1957 (with the first modern usage in 1959) and was possibly coined by the editor at the time, Watson Davis.

  19. International Collaboration in Space Weather Situational Awareness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boteler, David; Trichtchenko, Larisa; Danskin, Donald

    Space weather is a global phenomena so interntional collaboration is necessary to maintain awareness of potentially dangerous conditions. The Regional Warning Centres (RWCs) of the International Space Environment Service were set up during the International Geophysical Year to alert the scientific community to conditions requiring special measurements. The information sharing continues to this day with URSIGRAM messages exchanged between RWCs to help them produce space weather forecasts. Venturing into space, especially with manned missions, created a need to know about the space environment and particularly radiation dangers to man in space. Responding to this need led to the creation of a network of stations around the world to provide continuous monitoring of solar activity. Solar wind monitoring is now provided by the ACE satellite, operated by one country, but involving international collaborators to bring the information down in real time. Disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field are monitored by many magnetic observatories that are collaborating through INTERMAGNET to provide reliable data. Space weather produces effects on the ionosphere that can interfere with a variety of systems: the International GNSS Service provides information about effects on positioning systems, and the International Space Environment Service is providing information about iono-spheric absorption, particularly for trans-polar airline operations. The increasing availability of internet access, even at remote locations, is making it easier to obtain the raw information. The challenge now is how to integrate that information to provide effective international situational awareness of space weather.

  20. The science of space weather.

    PubMed

    Eastwood, Jonathan P

    2008-12-13

    The basic physics underpinning space weather is reviewed, beginning with a brief overview of the main causes of variability in the near-Earth space environment. Although many plasma phenomena contribute to space weather, one of the most important is magnetic reconnection, and recent cutting edge research in this field is reviewed. We then place this research in context by discussing a number of specific types of space weather in more detail. As society inexorably increases its dependence on space, the necessity of predicting and mitigating space weather will become ever more acute. This requires a deep understanding of the complexities inherent in the plasmas that fill space and has prompted the development of a new generation of scientific space missions at the international level.

  1. Extracting Space Weather Information from Research Models: Opportunities and Challenges

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael

    2010-01-01

    In addition to supporting space research in the international community, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has as its second objective to apply the power of modern research models toward space weather specification and forecasting. Motivated by the objectives to test models and to ease the transition of research models to space weather forecasting organizations, the CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as a large number of modeling and data products for space weather forecasting support. Over time, these activities have produced tailored products for partners, as well as tools, which address the space weather needs of NASA's robotic mission community. All tools are accessible via a configurable, flexible interface. During this process, CCMC has accumulated substantial experience in understanding model performance, as well as in the design and execution of realtime systems. This presentation will focus on lessons learned and it will suggest low hanging fruit for transition to operations at partner agencies.

  2. CCMC/Space Weather Research Center: Overview and Future Space Weather Needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Y.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Maddox, M. M.

    2015-12-01

    Space Weather Research Center (SWRC), part of the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), was established in 2010 to address emerging space weather needs of NASA robotic missions. By leveraging CCMC's modeling capabilities and through collaborations with different NASA centers, government agencies, educational institutions and multiple entities worldwide, SWRC provides research-based space weather forecasting, monitoring and anomaly support to NASA users. SWRC analyst team has also helped to identify limitations of current models and thus accelerate R2O-O2R process. In addition, the establishment of SWRC has added a new dimension to CCMC's education program. In this presentation, an overview of SWRC activities will be given. Future research and modeling needs will be discussed from the perspective of a space weather analyst.

  3. Space Weather Services at Goddard Space Flight Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Zheng, Y.; Maddox, M.; Kuznetsova, M.; Taktakishvil, A.; Rastaetter, L.

    2010-01-01

    The Space Weather Laboratory (SWL) forms a focal point at GSFC for the generation of space weather tools and information. This information is based on data from space mission and ground observatories, as well as on forefront model calculations conducted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). CCMC works with the research community to bring to bear the power of communitydeveloped space science models on space weather problems. Data from primarily from NASA missions but also from NOAA and other partner agencies are combined with model results into a fully configurable space weather information display by means of the iSWA system. This information and iSWA form the basis for and SWL-provided service to NASA's robotic mission fleet, which includes forecasts, regular updates, and warnings. This service benefits from a strong partnership with NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group, and with the US Air Force Weather Agency. In this presentation, we provide a summary of space weather capabilities and services and we present an outlook into the future.

  4. An introduction to Space Weather Integrated Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhong, D.; Feng, X.

    2012-12-01

    The need for a software toolkit that integrates space weather models and data is one of many challenges we are facing with when applying the models to space weather forecasting. To meet this challenge, we have developed Space Weather Integrated Modeling (SWIM) that is capable of analysis and visualizations of the results from a diverse set of space weather models. SWIM has a modular design and is written in Python, by using NumPy, matplotlib, and the Visualization ToolKit (VTK). SWIM provides data management module to read a variety of spacecraft data products and a specific data format of Solar-Interplanetary Conservation Element/Solution Element MHD model (SIP-CESE MHD model) for the study of solar-terrestrial phenomena. Data analysis, visualization and graphic user interface modules are also presented in a user-friendly way to run the integrated models and visualize the 2-D and 3-D data sets interactively. With these tools we can locally or remotely analysis the model result rapidly, such as extraction of data on specific location in time-sequence data sets, plotting interplanetary magnetic field lines, multi-slicing of solar wind speed, volume rendering of solar wind density, animation of time-sequence data sets, comparing between model result and observational data. To speed-up the analysis, an in-situ visualization interface is used to support visualizing the data 'on-the-fly'. We also modified some critical time-consuming analysis and visualization methods with the aid of GPU and multi-core CPU. We have used this tool to visualize the data of SIP-CESE MHD model in real time, and integrated the Database Model of shock arrival, Shock Propagation Model, Dst forecasting model and SIP-CESE MHD model developed by SIGMA Weather Group at State Key Laboratory of Space Weather/CAS.

  5. Space weather monitoring and forecasting in South America: products from the user requests to the development of regional magnetic indices and GNSS vertical error maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Padilha, Antonio; Takahashi, Hisao; Souza, Jonas; Mendes, Odim; Batista, Inez S.; SantAnna, Nilson; Gatto, Rubens; Costa, D. Joaquim

    On August 2007 the National Institute for Space Research started a task force to develop and operate a space weather program, which is kwon by the acronyms Embrace that stands for the Portuguese statement “Estudo e Monitoramento BRAasileiro de Clima Espacial” Program (Brazilian Space Weather Study and Monitoring program). The main purpose of the Embrace Program is to monitor the space climate and weather from sun, interplanetary space, magnetosphere and ionosphere-atmosphere, and to provide useful information to space related communities, technological, industrial and academic areas. Since then we have being visiting several different space weather costumers and we have host two workshops of Brazilian space weather users at the Embrace facilities. From the inputs and requests collected from the users the Embrace Program decided to monitored several physical parameters of the sun-earth environment through a large ground base network of scientific sensors and under collaboration with space weather centers partners. Most of these physical parameters are daily published on the Brazilian space weather program web portal, related to the entire network sensors available. A comprehensive data bank and an interface layer are under development to allow an easy and direct access to the useful information. Nowadays, the users will count on products derived from a GNSS monitor network that covers most of the South American territory; a digisonde network that monitors the ionospheric profiles in two equatorial sites and in one low latitude site; several solar radio telescopes to monitor solar activity, and a magnetometer network, besides a global ionospheric physical model. Regarding outreach, we publish a daily bulletin in Portuguese with the status of the space weather environment on the Sun, in the Interplanetary Medium and close to the Earth. Since December 2011, all these activities are carried out at the Embrace Headquarter, a building located at the INPE's main campus

  6. Improved Weather and Seasonal Climate Forecasts from Multimodel Superensemble.

    PubMed

    Krishnamurti; Kishtawal; LaRow; Bachiochi; Zhang; Williford; Gadgil; Surendran

    1999-09-03

    A method for improving weather and climate forecast skill has been developed. It is called a superensemble, and it arose from a study of the statistical properties of a low-order spectral model. Multiple regression was used to determine coefficients from multimodel forecasts and observations. The coefficients were then used in the superensemble technique. The superensemble was shown to outperform all model forecasts for multiseasonal, medium-range weather and hurricane forecasts. In addition, the superensemble was shown to have higher skill than forecasts based solely on ensemble averaging.

  7. Incorporating weather uncertainty in demand forecasts for electricity market planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ziser, C. J.; Dong, Z. Y.; Wong, K. P.

    2012-07-01

    A major component of electricity network planning is to ensure supply capability into the future, through generation and transmission development. Accurate forecasts of maximum demand are a crucial component of this process, with future weather conditions having a large impact on forecast accuracy. This article presents an improved methodology for the consideration of weather uncertainty in electricity demand forecasts. Case studies based on the Australian national electricity market are used to validate the proposed methodology.

  8. Space Weathering: An Ultraviolet Indicator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendrix, A. R.; Vilas, F.

    2003-01-01

    We present evidence suggesting that the spectral slope of airless bodies in the UV-visible wavelength range can be used as an indicator of exposure to space weathering. While space weathering generally produces a reddening of spectra in the visible-NIR spectral regions, it tends to result in a bluing of the UV-visible portion of the spectrum, and may in some cases produce a spectral reversal. The bluing effect may be detectable with smaller amounts of weathering than are necessary to detect the longer-wavelength weathering effects.

  9. Space Weathering: An Ultraviolet Indicator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendrix, A. R.; Vilas, F.

    2004-01-01

    We present evidence suggesting that the spectral slope of airless bodies in the UV-visible wavelength range can be used as an indicator of exposure to space weathering. While space weathering generally produces a reddening of spectra in the visible-NIR spectral regions, it tends to result in a bluing of the UV-visible portion of the spectrum, and may in some cases produce a spectral reversal. The bluing effect may be detectable with smaller amounts of weathering than are necessary to detect the longer-wavelength weathering effects.

  10. Space weather: European Space Agency perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daly, E. J.; Hilgers, A.

    Spacecraft and payloads have become steadily more sophisticated and therefore more susceptible to space weather effects. ESA has long been active in applying models and tools to the problems associated with such effects on its spacecraft. In parallel, ESA and European agencies have built a highly successful solar-terrestrial physics capability. ESA is now investigating the marriage of these technological and scientific capabilities to address perceived user needs for space weather products and services. Two major ESA-sponsored studies are laying the groundwork for a possible operational European space weather service. The wide-ranging activities of ESA in the Space Weather/Space Environment domain are summarized and recent important examples of space weather concerns given.

  11. Training Early Career Space Weather Researchers and other Space Weather Professionals at the CISM Space Weather Summer School

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gross, N. A.; Hughes, W.

    2011-12-01

    This talk will outline the organization of a summer school designed to introduce young professions to a sub-discipline of geophysics. Through out the 10 year life time of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) the CISM Team has offered a two week summer school that introduces new graduate students and other interested professional to the fundamentals of space weather. The curriculum covers basic concepts in space physics, the hazards of space weather, and the utility of computer models of the space environment. Graduate students attend from both inside and outside CISM, from all the sub-disciplines involved in space weather (solar, heliosphere, geomagnetic, and aeronomy), and from across the nation and around the world. In addition, between 1/4 and 1/3 of the participants each year are professionals involved in space weather in some way, such as: forecasters from NOAA and the Air Force, Air Force satellite program directors, NASA specialists involved in astronaut radiation safety, and representatives from industries affected by space weather. The summer school has adopted modern pedagogy that has been used successfully at the undergraduate level. A typical daily schedule involves three morning lectures followed by an afternoon lab session. During the morning lectures, student interaction is encouraged using "Timeout to Think" questions and peer instruction, along with question cards for students to ask follow up questions. During the afternoon labs students, working in groups of four, answer thought provoking questions using results from simulations and observation data from a variety of source. Through the interactions with each other and the instructors, as well as social interactions during the two weeks, students network and form bonds that will last them through out their careers. We believe that this summer school can be used as a model for summer schools in a wide variety of disciplines.

  12. Space weathering on airless bodies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pieters, Carle M.; Noble, Sarah K.

    2016-10-01

    Space weathering refers to alteration that occurs in the space environment with time. Lunar samples, and to some extent meteorites, have provided a benchmark for understanding the processes and products of space weathering. Lunar soils are derived principally from local materials but have accumulated a range of optically active opaque particles (OAOpq) that include nanophase metallic iron on/in rims formed on individual grains (imparting a red slope to visible and near-infrared reflectance) and larger iron particles (which darken across all wavelengths) such as are often found within the interior of recycled grains. Space weathering of other anhydrous silicate bodies, such as Mercury and some asteroids, produces different forms and relative abundance of OAOpq particles depending on the particular environment. If the development of OAOpq particles is minimized (such as at Vesta), contamination by exogenic material and regolith mixing become the dominant space weathering processes. Volatile-rich bodies and those composed of abundant hydrous minerals (dwarf planet Ceres, many dark asteroids, and outer solar system satellites) are affected by space weathering processes differently than the silicate bodies of the inner solar system. However, the space weathering products of these bodies are currently poorly understood and the physics and chemistry of space weathering processes in different environments are areas of active research.

  13. Synopsis of the Review on Space Weather in Latin America: Space Science, Research Networks and Space Weather Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dasso, Sergio; Gonzalez-Esparza, Americo

    2016-07-01

    The present work is a synopsis of a three-part review on space weather in Latin America. The first paper (part 1) comprises the evolution of several Latin American institutions investing in space science since the 1960's, focusing on the solar-terrestrial interactions, which today is commonly called space weather. Despite recognizing advances in space research in all of Latin America, this part 1 is restricted to the development observed in three countries in particular (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico), due to the fact that these countries have recently developed operational centers for monitoring space weather. The review starts with a brief summary of the first groups to start working with space science in Latin America. This first part of the review closes with the current status and the research interests of these groups, which are described in relation to the most significant works and challenges of the next decade in order to aid in the solving of space weather open issues. The second paper (part 2) comprises a summary of scientific challenges in space weather research that are considered to be open scientific questions and how they are being addressed in terms of instrumentation by the international community, including the Latin American groups. We also provide an inventory of the networks and collaborations being constructed in Latin America, including details on the data processing, capabilities and a basic description of the resulting variables. These instrumental networks currently used for space science research are gradually being incorporated into the space weather monitoring data pipelines as their data provides key variables for monitoring and forecasting space weather, which allow these centers to monitor space weather and issue warnings and alerts. The third paper (part 3) presents the decision process for the spinning off of space weather prediction centers from space science groups with our interpretation of the reason/opportunities that leads to

  14. An outline of the review on space weather in Latin America: space science, research networks and space weather center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Nardin, C. M.; Dasso, S.; Gonzalez-Esparza, A.

    2016-12-01

    The present work is an outline of a three-part review on space weather in Latin America. The first paper (part 1) comprises the evolution of several Latin American institutions investing in space science since the 1960's, focusing on the solar-terrestrial interactions, which today is commonly called space weather. Despite recognizing advances in space research in all of Latin America, this part 1 is restricted to the development observed in three countries in particular (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico), due to the fact that these countries have recently developed operational centers for monitoring space weather. The review starts with a brief summary of the first groups to start working with space science in Latin America. This first part of the review closes with the current status and the research interests of these groups, which are described in relation to the most significant works and challenges of the next decade in order to aid in the solving of space weather open issues. The second paper (part 2) comprises a summary of scientific challenges in space weather research that are considered to be open scientific questions and how they are being addressed in terms of instrumentation by the international community, including the Latin American groups. We also provide an inventory of the networks and collaborations being constructed in Latin America, including details on the data processing, capabilities and a basic description of the resulting variables. These instrumental networks currently used for space science research are gradually being incorporated into the space weather monitoring data pipelines as their data provides key variables for monitoring and forecasting space weather, which allow these centers to monitor space weather and issue warnings and alerts. The third paper (part 3) presents the decision process for the spinning off of space weather prediction centers from space science groups with our interpretation of the reason/opportunities that leads to

  15. Verification of National Weather Service spot forecasts using surface observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lammers, Matthew Robert

    Software has been developed to evaluate National Weather Service spot forecasts issued to support prescribed burns and early-stage wildfires. Fire management officials request spot forecasts from National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices to provide detailed guidance as to atmospheric conditions in the vicinity of planned prescribed burns as well as wildfires that do not have incident meteorologists on site. This open source software with online display capabilities is used to examine an extensive set of spot forecasts of maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, and maximum wind speed from April 2009 through November 2013 nationwide. The forecast values are compared to the closest available surface observations at stations installed primarily for fire weather and aviation applications. The accuracy of the spot forecasts is compared to those available from the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). Spot forecasts for selected prescribed burns and wildfires are used to illustrate issues associated with the verification procedures. Cumulative statistics for National Weather Service County Warning Areas and for the nation are presented. Basic error and accuracy metrics for all available spot forecasts and the entire nation indicate that the skill of the spot forecasts is higher than that available from the NDFD, with the greatest improvement for maximum temperature and the least improvement for maximum wind speed.

  16. Space weather prediction by cosmic rays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mavromichalaki, H.; Souvatzoglou, G.; Sarlanis, C.; Mariatos, G.; Plainaki, C.; Gerontidou, M.; Belov, A.; Eroshenko, E.; Yanke, V.

    Relativistic (galactic and solar) cosmic rays (CR) registered by neutron monitors can play a useful key-role in space weather storms forecasting and in the specification of magnetic properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), shocks and ground level enhancements (GLEs). In order to produce a real-time prediction of space weather phenomena, only real-time data from a neutron monitor network should be employed. Recently in Athens cosmic-ray station a real-time data collection and acquisition system has been created in collaboration with the cosmic ray group of IZMIRAN. This system collects data in real-time mode from about 15 real-time cosmic ray stations by using the internet. The main server in Athens station collects 5-min and hourly cosmic ray data. The measurements of all stations are being processed automatically while converted into a suitable form, so as to be serviceably for forecasting purposes. All programs have been written in an expandable form, in order to upgrade the network of real-time neutron monitors with the biggest possible number of stations, easily. Programs which make use of these data for forecasting studies are already running in experimental mode. The increased number of NM stations operating in real time provides a good basis for using Neutron Monitor network as a tool of forecasting the arrival of the interplanetary disturbances at the Earth.

  17. Numerical weather forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect

    Buckley, R.L.

    1998-12-31

    Weather forecasts at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are important for applications to emergency response. The fate of accidentally released radiological materials and toxic chemicals can be determined by providing wind and turbulence input to atmospheric transport models. This operation has been routinely performed at SRS using the WIND system, a system of computer models and monitors that collects data from towers situated throughout the SRS. However, the information provided to these models is spatially homogeneous (in one or two dimensions) with an elementary forecasting capability. This paper discusses the use of an advanced three-dimensional prognostic numerical model to provide space- and time-dependent meteorological data for use in the WIND system dispersion models. The extensive meteorological data collection at SRS serves as a ground truth for further model development as well as for use in other applications. A prognostic mesoscale model, the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS), is used to provide these forecasts. Use of RAMS allows for incorporation of mesoscale features such as the sea breeze, which has been shown to affect local weather conditions. This paper discusses the mesoscale model and its configuration for the operational simulation, as well as an application using a dispersion model at the SRS.

  18. Numerical Weather Forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect

    Buckley, R.L.

    1998-11-01

    Weather forecasts at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are important for applications to emergency response. The fate of accidentally-released radiological materials and toxic chemicals can be determined by providing wind and turbulence input to atmospheric transport models. This operation has been routinely performed at SRS using the WIND System, a system of computer models and monitors which collect data from towers situated throughout the SRS. However, the information provided to these models is spatially homogeneous (in one or two dimensions) with an elementary forecasting capability. This paper discusses the use of an advanced three-dimensional prognostic numerical model to provide space and time-dependent meteorological data for use in the WIND System dispersion models. The extensive meteorological data collection at SRS serves as a ground truth for further model development as well as for use in other applications.

  19. A Milestone in Commercial Space Weather: USTAR Center for Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobiska, W.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Thompson, D. C.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.; Gardner, L. C.

    2009-12-01

    As of 2009, Utah State University (USU) hosts a new organization to develop commercial space weather applications using funding that has been provided by the State of Utah’s Utah Science Technology and Research (USTAR) initiative. The USTAR Center for Space Weather (UCSW) is located on the USU campus in Logan, Utah and is developing innovative applications for mitigating adverse space weather effects in technological systems. Space weather’s effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the Sun’s photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere is the key region that affects communication and navigation systems. The UCSW has developed products for users of systems that are affected by space weather-driven ionospheric changes. For example, on September 1, 2009 USCW released, in conjunction with Space Environment Technologies, the world’s first real-time space weather via an iPhone app. Space WX displays the real-time, current global ionosphere total electron content along with its space weather drivers; it is available through the Apple iTunes store and is used around the planet. The Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system is now being run operationally in real-time at UCSW with the continuous ingestion of hundreds of global data streams to dramatically improve the ionosphere’s characterization. We discuss not only funding and technical advances that have led to current products but also describe the direction for UCSW that includes partnering opportunities for moving commercial space weather into fully automated specification and forecasting over the next half decade.

  20. The International Space Weather Initiative

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nat, Gopalswamy; Joseph, Davila; Barbara, Thompson

    2010-01-01

    The International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is a program of international cooperation aimed at understanding the external drivers of space weather. The ISWI program has its roots in the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) program that ran during 2007 - 2009 and will continue with those aspects that directly affect life on Earth. The primary objective of the ISWI program is to advance the space weather science by a combination of instrument deployment, analysis and interpretation of space weather data from the deployed instruments in conjunction with space data, and communicate the results to the public and students. Like the IHY, the ISWI will be a grass roots organization with key participation from national coordinators in cooperation with an international steering committee. This presentation outlines the ISWI program including its organizational aspects and proposed activities. The ISWI observatory deployment and outreach activities are highly complementary to the CAWSES II activities of SCOSTEP.

  1. The International Space Weather Initiative

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nat, Gopalswamy; Joseph, Davila; Barbara, Thompson

    2010-01-01

    The International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is a program of international cooperation aimed at understanding the external drivers of space weather. The ISWI program has its roots in the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) program that ran during 2007 - 2009 and will continue with those aspects that directly affect life on Earth. The primary objective of the ISWI program is to advance the space weather science by a combination of instrument deployment, analysis and interpretation of space weather data from the deployed instruments in conjunction with space data, and communicate the results to the public and students. Like the IHY, the ISWI will be a grass roots organization with key participation from national coordinators in cooperation with an international steering committee. This presentation outlines the ISWI program including its organizational aspects and proposed activities. The ISWI observatory deployment and outreach activities are highly complementary to the CAWSES II activities of SCOSTEP.

  2. Space Weather Research: Indian perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.

    2016-12-01

    Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

  3. Modeled Forecasts of Dengue Fever in San Juan, Puerto Rico Using NASA Satellite Enhanced Weather Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morin, C.; Quattrochi, D. A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.

    2015-12-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is an important mosquito transmitted disease that is strongly influenced by meteorological and environmental conditions. Recent research has focused on forecasting DF case numbers based on meteorological data. However, these forecasting tools have generally relied on empirical models that require long DF time series to train. Additionally, their accuracy has been tested retrospectively, using past meteorological data. Consequently, the operational utility of the forecasts are still in question because the error associated with weather and climate forecasts are not reflected in the results. Using up-to-date weekly dengue case numbers for model parameterization and weather forecast data as meteorological input, we produced weekly forecasts of DF cases in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Each week, the past weeks' case counts were used to re-parameterize a process-based DF model driven with updated weather forecast data to generate forecasts of DF case numbers. Real-time weather forecast data was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) system enhanced using additional high-resolution NASA satellite data. This methodology was conducted in a weekly iterative process with each DF forecast being evaluated using county-level DF cases reported by the Puerto Rico Department of Health. The one week DF forecasts were accurate especially considering the two sources of model error. First, weather forecasts were sometimes inaccurate and generally produced lower than observed temperatures. Second, the DF model was often overly influenced by the previous weeks DF case numbers, though this phenomenon could be lessened by increasing the number of simulations included in the forecast. Although these results are promising, we would like to develop a methodology to produce longer range forecasts so that public health workers can better prepare for dengue epidemics.

  4. Development of operational models for space weather prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Siqing; Gong, Jiancun

    Since space weather prediction is currently at the stage of transition from human experience to objective forecasting methods, developing operational forecasting models becomes an important way to improve the capabilities of space weather service. As the existing theoretical models are not fully operational when it comes to space weather prediction, we carried out researches on developing operational models, considering the user needs for prediction of key elements in space environment, which have vital impacts on space assets security. We focused on solar activities, geomagnetic activities, high-energy particles, atmospheric density, plasma environment and so forth. Great progresses have been made in developing 3D dynamic asymmetric magnetopause model, plasma sheet energetic electron flux forecasting model and 400km-atmospheric density forecasting model, and also in the prediction of high-speed solar-wind streams from coronal holes and geomagnetic AE indices. Some of these models have already been running in the operational system of Space Environment Prediction Center, National Space Science Center (SEPC/NSSC). This presentation will introduce the research plans for space weather prediction in China, and current progresses of developing operational models and their applications in daily space weather services in SEPC/NSSC.

  5. Environmental Satellites: Strategy Needed to Sustain Critical Climate and Space Weather Measurements

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-04-01

    Environmental satellites provide data on the earth and its space environment that are used for forecasting the weather, measuring variations in climate...that are used for weather forecasting , as well as climate monitoring, prediction, and research. Current satellites provide measurements of the...seasonal, annual, and decade-long changes in the earth’s temperature and ozone coverage. They are also used to observe and forecast space weather

  6. Use of EOS Data in AWIPS for Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Haines, Stephanie L.; Suggs, Ron J.; Bradshaw, Tom; Darden, Chris; Burks, Jason

    2003-01-01

    Operational weather forecasting relies heavily on real time data and modeling products for forecast preparation and dissemination of significant weather information to the public. The synthesis of this information (observations and model products) by the meteorologist is facilitated by a decision support system to display and integrate the information in a useful fashion. For the NWS this system is called Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). Over the last few years NASA has launched a series of new Earth Observation Satellites (EOS) for climate monitoring that include several instruments that provide high-resolution measurements of atmospheric and surface features important for weather forecasting and analysis. The key to the utilization of these unique new measurements by the NWS is the real time integration of the EOS data into the AWIPS system. This is currently being done in the Huntsville and Birmingham NWS Forecast Offices under the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Program. This paper describes the use of near real time MODIS and AIRS data in AWIPS to improve the detection of clouds, moisture variations, atmospheric stability, and thermal signatures that can lead to significant weather development. The paper and the conference presentation will focus on several examples where MODIS and AIRS data have made a positive impact on forecast accuracy. The results of an assessment of the utility of these products for weather forecast improvement made at the Huntsville NWS Forecast Office will be presented.

  7. Use of EOS Data in AWIPS for Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Haines, Stephanie L.; Suggs, Ron J.; Bradshaw, Tom; Darden, Chris; Burks, Jason

    2003-01-01

    Operational weather forecasting relies heavily on real time data and modeling products for forecast preparation and dissemination of significant weather information to the public. The synthesis of this information (observations and model products) by the meteorologist is facilitated by a decision support system to display and integrate the information in a useful fashion. For the NWS this system is called Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). Over the last few years NASA has launched a series of new Earth Observation Satellites (EOS) for climate monitoring that include several instruments that provide high-resolution measurements of atmospheric and surface features important for weather forecasting and analysis. The key to the utilization of these unique new measurements by the NWS is the real time integration of the EOS data into the AWIPS system. This is currently being done in the Huntsville and Birmingham NWS Forecast Offices under the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Program. This paper describes the use of near real time MODIS and AIRS data in AWIPS to improve the detection of clouds, moisture variations, atmospheric stability, and thermal signatures that can lead to significant weather development. The paper and the conference presentation will focus on several examples where MODIS and AIRS data have made a positive impact on forecast accuracy. The results of an assessment of the utility of these products for weather forecast improvement made at the Huntsville NWS Forecast Office will be presented.

  8. Satellite Sounder Data Assimilation for Improving Alaska Region Weather Forecast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhu, Jiang; Stevens, E.; Zhang, X.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Heinrichs, T.; Broderson, D.

    2014-01-01

    A case study and monthly statistical analysis using sounder data assimilation to improve the Alaska regional weather forecast model are presented. Weather forecast in Alaska faces challenges as well as opportunities. Alaska has a large land with multiple types of topography and coastal area. Weather forecast models must be finely tuned in order to accurately predict weather in Alaska. Being in the high-latitudes provides Alaska greater coverage of polar orbiting satellites for integration into forecasting models than the lower 48. Forecasting marine low stratus clouds is critical to the Alaska aviation and oil industry and is the current focus of the case study. NASA AIRS/CrIS sounder profiles data are used to do data assimilation for the Alaska regional weather forecast model to improve Arctic marine stratus clouds forecast. Choosing physical options for the WRF model is discussed. Preprocess of AIRS/CrIS sounder data for data assimilation is described. Local observation data, satellite data, and global data assimilation data are used to verify and/or evaluate the forecast results by the MET tools Model Evaluation Tools (MET).

  9. How accurate are the weather forecasts for Bierun (southern Poland)?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gawor, J.

    2012-04-01

    Weather forecast accuracy has increased in recent times mainly thanks to significant development of numerical weather prediction models. Despite the improvements, the forecasts should be verified to control their quality. The evaluation of forecast accuracy can also be an interesting learning activity for students. It joins natural curiosity about everyday weather and scientific process skills: problem solving, database technologies, graph construction and graphical analysis. The examination of the weather forecasts has been taken by a group of 14-year-old students from Bierun (southern Poland). They participate in the GLOBE program to develop inquiry-based investigations of the local environment. For the atmospheric research the automatic weather station is used. The observed data were compared with corresponding forecasts produced by two numerical weather prediction models, i.e. COAMPS (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) developed by Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, USA; it runs operationally at the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling in Warsaw, Poland and COSMO (The Consortium for Small-scale Modelling) used by the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. The analysed data included air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, wind chill and sea level pressure. The prediction periods from 0 to 24 hours (Day 1) and from 24 to 48 hours (Day 2) were considered. The verification statistics that are commonly used in meteorology have been applied: mean error, also known as bias, for continuous data and a 2x2 contingency table to get the hit rate and false alarm ratio for a few precipitation thresholds. The results of the aforementioned activity became an interesting basis for discussion. The most important topics are: 1) to what extent can we rely on the weather forecasts? 2) How accurate are the forecasts for two considered time ranges? 3) Which precipitation threshold is the most predictable? 4) Why

  10. An objective weather-regime-based verification of WRF-RTFDDA forecasts over the eastern Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita; Liu, Yubao; Pan, Linlin; Sheu, Rong-Shyang

    2014-05-01

    Numerical weather prediction in the eastern Mediterranean is very challenging because of the region's unique geography, which includes strong land-sea contrast, complex topography, highly varied vegetation, and mosaic of urban and desert areas. This geographic heterogeneity often results in complex and dramatically different mesoscale and microscale flows underdifferent synoptic situations. WRF-RTFDDA (Weather Research and Forecasting - Realtime four-dimensional data assimilation and forecasting system) is a WRF-based multi-scale 4-dimensional weather analysis and prediction system. It effectively assimilates diverse types of direct, retrieved and non-direct observations available at irregular time and locations using a hybrid Newtonian relaxation and 3DVar data assimilation procedure to initiate regional weather forecast. The hybrid data assimilation and forecasting system has been implemented in a triple-nested WRF configuration with 30, 10, and 3.3 km horizontal grid spacing over the eastern Mediterranean. Analysis and forecasts have been run for a one-year long period, covering four seasons that include a wide variety of synoptic weather regimes. Objective verification is conducted to study the model performance under different weather regime. The Alpert et al. (2001) weather-regime classification method is adopted to classify the synoptic weather into 19 classes according to daily surface synoptic flows that include cyclones, highs and troughs. The aim of this paper is to investigate the model skill under different synoptic weather regimes. Objective verification statistics including Bias, RMSE and MAE of main weather variables are calculated by comparing the model data with soundings and surface observations for each weather regime. Preliminary examination of the verification scores shows significant differences of model forecast accuracy under different weather situations. The RMSE of 24h forecasts of 2-m temperatures varies from 1.6 C to 2.3C among

  11. Briefing highlights space weather risks to GPS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tretkoff, Ernie

    2011-07-01

    Solar storms, which are expected to increase as the Sun nears the most active phase of the solar cycle, can disrupt a variety of technologies on which society relies. Speakers at a 22 June briefing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D. C., focused on how space weather can affect the Global Positioning System (GPS), which is used in a wide range of industries, including commercial air travel, agriculture, national security, and emergency response. Rocky Stone, chief technical pilot for United Airlines, noted that GPS allows more aircraft to be in airspace, saves fuel, and helps aircraft move safely on runways. “Improvements in space weather forecasting need to be pursued,” he said. Precision GPS has also “changed the whole nature of farming,” said Ron Hatch, Director of Navigation Systems, NavCom Technology/John Deere. GPS makes it possible for tractors to be driven in the most efficient paths and for fertilizer and water to be applied precisely to the areas that most need them. Space weather-induced degradation of GPS signals can cause significant loss to farms that rely on GPS. Elizabeth Zimmerman, Deputy Associate Administrator for the Office of Response and Recovery at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), described how FEMA relies on GPS for disaster recovery. The agency is developing an operations plan for dealing with space weather, she said.

  12. Space Weathering of Small Bodies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McFadden, L. A.

    2002-12-01

    Space weathering is defined as any process that wears away and alters surfaces, here confined to small bodies in the Solar System. Mechanisms which possibly alter asteroid and comet surfaces include solar wind bombardment, UV radiation, cosmic ray bombardment, micrometeorite bombardment. These processes are likely to contribute to surface processes differently. For example, solar wind bombardment would be more important on a body closer to the Sun compared to a comet where cosmic ray bombardment might be a more significant weathering mechanism. How can we measure the effects of space weathering? A big problem is that we don't know the nature of the surface before it was weathered. We are in a new era in the study of surface processes on small bodies brought about by the availability of spatially resolved, color and spectral measurements of asteroids from Galileo and NEAR. What processes are active on which bodies? What physics controls surface processes in different regions of the solar system? How do processes differ on different bodies of different physical and chemical properties? What combinations of observable parameters best address the nature of surface processes? Are there alternative explanations for the observed parameters that have been attributed to space weathering? Should we retain the term, space weathering? How can our understanding of space weathering on the Moon help us understand it on asteroids and comets? Finally, we have to leave behind some presuppositions, one being that there is evidence of space weathering based on the fact that the optical properties of S-type asteroids differs from those of ordinary chondrites.

  13. APL experience with space weather modeling and transition to operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zanetti, L. J.; Wing, S.

    2009-12-01

    In response to the growing space weather needs, the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) developed and delivered twenty two state of the art space weather products under the auspice of the University Partnering in Operational Support program, initiated in 1998. These products offer nowcasts and forecasts for the region spanning from the Sun to the Earth. Some of these products have been transitioned to the Air Force Weather Agency and other space weather centers. The transition process is quite different from research modeling, requiring additional staff with different sets of expertise. Recently, APL has developed a space weather web page to serve these products to the research and user community. For the initial stage, we have chosen ten of these products to be served from our website, which is presently still under construction. APL’s experience, lessons learned, and successes from developing space weather models, the transition to operations process and the webpage access will be shared and discussed

  14. Is It Going to Rain Today? Understanding the Weather Forecast.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Allsopp, Jim; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Presents a resource for science teachers to develop a better understanding of weather forecasts, including outlooks, watches, warnings, advisories, severe local storms, winter storms, floods, hurricanes, nonprecipitation hazards, precipitation probabilities, sky condition, and UV index. (MKR)

  15. Weather Forecasting: Sunny Days Are Ahead. Resources in Technology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skena, George

    1992-01-01

    Discusses the history of weather forecasting from the Babylonians to today's computers and provides information on snow, hail, sleet, fog, winds, clouds, and fronts. Includes possible student outcomes and a student quiz. (JOW)

  16. Is It Going to Rain Today? Understanding the Weather Forecast.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Allsopp, Jim; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Presents a resource for science teachers to develop a better understanding of weather forecasts, including outlooks, watches, warnings, advisories, severe local storms, winter storms, floods, hurricanes, nonprecipitation hazards, precipitation probabilities, sky condition, and UV index. (MKR)

  17. Weather Forecasting: Sunny Days Are Ahead. Resources in Technology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skena, George

    1992-01-01

    Discusses the history of weather forecasting from the Babylonians to today's computers and provides information on snow, hail, sleet, fog, winds, clouds, and fronts. Includes possible student outcomes and a student quiz. (JOW)

  18. Martian Weather Analysis and Forecasts from Multiple Spacecraft Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Houben, H.

    2004-05-01

    emerges naturally from the observation weighting scheme which rejects data that disagrees violently with both other measurements and the forecast model; and real-time weather forecasts can be made available for a host of operational purposes (aerobraking, aerocapture, gliding, ballooning, dust storm warnings). All of these are made practical---given the limited computational resources that can be devoted to Martian weather forecasting---by an observation space sequential assimilation technique, using a transformed extended Kalman filter that weights both model forecasts and observational errors by agreement with the data. Forecast errors are less than 4 K and should improve with more sophisticated predictive models.

  19. Seasonal Forecasting of Fire Weather Based on a New Global Fire Weather Database

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dowdy, Andrew J.; Field, Robert D.; Spessa, Allan C.

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal forecasting of fire weather is examined based on a recently produced global database of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system beginning in 1980. Seasonal average values of the FWI are examined in relation to measures of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results are used to examine seasonal forecasts of fire weather conditions throughout the world.

  20. Space Weather Products at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael

    2010-01-01

    In addition to supporting space research in the international community, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has as its second objective to bring to apply the power of modern research models toward space weather specification and forecasting. Initially motivated by the objective to test models and to ease the transition of research models to space weather forecasting organization, the CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as large number of modeling and data products for space weather forecasting. Over time, these activities have evolved into tailored products for partners, as well as into a direct support of the space weather needs within NASA robotic mission community. Accessible through a customizable interface, users within the US or at partnering institutions internationally have access to space weather tools driven by the most advanced space research models. Through partnering with agencies and institutions in the US and abroad, the CCMC strives to set up further data sharing agreements to the benefit of all participating institutions. In this presentation, we provide an overview of existing CCMC space weather services and products, and we will explore additional avenues for international collaborations.

  1. Space weather products at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hesse, Michael

    In addition to supporting space research in the international community, the Community Co-ordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has as its second objective to bring to apply the power of modern research models toward space weather specification and forecasting. Initially motivated by the objective to test models and to ease the transition of research models to space weather forecasting organization, the CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as large number of modeling and data products for space weather forecasting. Over time, these activities have evolved into tailored products for partners, as well as into a direct support of the space weather needs within NASA robotic mission community. Accessible through a customizable interface, users within the US or at partnering institutions internationally have access to space weather tools driven by the most advanced space research models. Through partnering with agencies and institutions in the US and abroad, the CCMC strives to set up further data sharing agreements to the benefit of all participating institutions. In this presen-tation, we provide an overview of existing CCMC space weather services and products, and we will explore additional avenues for international collaborations.

  2. Space weather activities in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.

    The Sun has long been understood as a source of energy for mankind. Only in the more modern times has it also been seen as a source of disturbances in the space environment of the Earth, but also of the other planets and the heliosphere. Space weather research had an early start in Europe with investigations of Birkeland, Fitzgerald and Lodge, ultimately leading to an understanding of geomagnetic storms and their relation to the Sun. Today, European space weather activities range from the study of the Sun, through the inner heliosphere, to the magnetosphere, ionosphere, atmosphere, down to ground level effects. We will give an overview of European space weather activities and focus on the chain of events from Sun to Earth.

  3. Mexican Space Weather Service (SCIESMEX)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez-Esparza, A.; De la Luz, V.; Mejia-Ambriz, J. C.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E.; Corona-Romero, P.; Gonzalez, L. X.

    2015-12-01

    Recent modifications of the Civil Protection Law in Mexico include now specific mentions to space hazards and space weather phenomena. During the last few years, the UN has promoted international cooperation on Space Weather awareness, studies and monitoring. Internal and external conditions motivated the creation of a Space Weather Service in Mexico (SCIESMEX). The SCIESMEX (www.sciesmex.unam.mx) is operated by the Geophysics Institute at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). The UNAM has the experience of operating several critical national services, including the National Seismological Service (SSN); besides that has a well established scientific group with expertise in space physics and solar- terrestrial phenomena. The SCIESMEX is also related with the recent creation of the Mexican Space Agency (AEM). The project combines a network of different ground instruments covering solar, interplanetary, geomagnetic, and ionospheric observations. The SCIESMEX has already in operation computing infrastructure running the web application, a virtual observatory and a high performance computing server to run numerical models. SCIESMEX participates in the International Space Environment Services (ISES) and in the Inter-progamme Coordination Team on Space Weather (ICTSW) of the Word Meteorological Organization (WMO).

  4. Space Weathering Processes on Mercury

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noble, S. K.; Pieters, C. M.

    2002-01-01

    Like the Moon, Mercury has no atmosphere to protect it from the harsh space environment and therefore it is expected that it will incur the effects of space weathering. These weathering processes are capable of both creating regolith and altering its optical properties. However, there are many important differences between the environments of Mercury and the Moon. These environmental differences will almost certainly affect the weathering processes as well as the products of those processes. It should be possible to observe the effects of these differences in Vis/NIR spectra of the type expected to be returned by MESSENGER. More importantly, understanding these weathering processes and their consequences is essential for evaluating the spectral data returned from MESSENGER and other missions in order to determine the mineralogy and the iron content of the Mercurian surface. Theoretical and experimental work has been undertaken in order to better understand these consequences.

  5. Space Weathering Processes on Mercury

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noble, S. K.; Pieters, C. M.

    2002-01-01

    Like the Moon, Mercury has no atmosphere to protect it from the harsh space environment and therefore it is expected that it will incur the effects of space weathering. These weathering processes are capable of both creating regolith and altering its optical properties. However, there are many important differences between the environments of Mercury and the Moon. These environmental differences will almost certainly affect the weathering processes as well as the products of those processes. It should be possible to observe the effects of these differences in Vis/NIR spectra of the type expected to be returned by MESSENGER. More importantly, understanding these weathering processes and their consequences is essential for evaluating the spectral data returned from MESSENGER and other missions in order to determine the mineralogy and the iron content of the Mercurian surface. Theoretical and experimental work has been undertaken in order to better understand these consequences.

  6. SWUSV: a microsatellite mission for space weather early forecasting of major flares and CMEs and the complete monitoring of the ultraviolet solar variability influence on climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Damé, Luc

    The SWUSV (Space Weather & Ultraviolet Solar Variability) proposed microsatellite mission encompasses three major scientific objectives: (1) Space Weather including the prediction and detection of major eruptions and coronal mass ejections (using Lyman-Alpha and Herzberg continuum imaging and H-Alpha ground support); (2) solar forcing on the climate through radiation and their interactions with the local stratosphere (UV spectral irradiance from 180 to 400 nm by bands of 10 to 20 nm, including ozone, plus Lyman-Alpha and the CN bandhead); (3) simultaneous local radiative budget of the Earth, UV to IR, with an accuracy better than 1% in differential. The mission is on a sun-synchronous polar orbit and proposes 5 instruments to the model payload: SUAVE (Solar Ultraviolet Advanced Variability Experiment), an optimized telescope for FUV (Lyman-Alpha) and MUV (200-220 nm Herzberg continuum) imaging (sources of variability); UPR (Ultraviolet Passband Radiometers), with 64 UV filter radiometers; a vector magnetometer; thermal plasma measurements and Langmuir probes; and a total and spectral solar irradiance and Earth radiative budget ensemble (SERB, Solar irradiance & Earth Radiative Budget). SWUSV is proposed as a small mission to CNES and to ESA for a possible flight as early as 2020-2021. With opening to Chinese collaboration (ESA-CAS Small Mission) a further instrument could be added (HEBS, High Energy Burst Spectrometers) to reinforced Space Weather flares prediction objectives.

  7. Geography Department Weather Forecasting Contests in the 21st Century

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skeeter, Brent R.

    2006-01-01

    The benefits of weather forecasting contests within geography departments are reaffirmed. The greatly increased ease of conducting such contests in the new millennium is stressed. Some of the specifics of the forecasting contest at Salisbury University are discussed. In addition, the advantages of a departmental contest over a national contest are…

  8. Geography Department Weather Forecasting Contests in the 21st Century

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skeeter, Brent R.

    2006-01-01

    The benefits of weather forecasting contests within geography departments are reaffirmed. The greatly increased ease of conducting such contests in the new millennium is stressed. Some of the specifics of the forecasting contest at Salisbury University are discussed. In addition, the advantages of a departmental contest over a national contest are…

  9. Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profile on Regional Weather Forecast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovee, Gary

    2010-01-01

    Prudent assimilation of AIRS thermodynamic profiles and quality indicators can improve initial conditions for regional weather models. AIRS-enhanced analysis has warmer and moister PBL. Forecasts with AIRS profiles are generally closer to NAM analyses than CNTL. Assimilation of AIRS leads to an overall QPF improvement in 6-h accumulated precipitation forecasts. Including AIRS profiles in assimilation process enhances the moist instability and produces stronger updrafts and a better precipitation forecast than the CNTL run.

  10. AFGWC (Air Force Global Weather Central) Cloud Forecast Models

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-04-01

    Weather Center, Offutt AFB, NE 68113. This document contains export- controlled technical data. USAF ETAC/DOL ltr, 9 Feb 1995 UNCLASSIFIED ::Am:tiiiiii...wmmmmm •..-111111111111 ?TWWT’ . " iwimni WC FILE COP* Lf> 5 I o < AFGWC CLOUD FORECAST MODELS EDITED BY MAJOR TIMOTHY D, CRUM SCm ’-■ It...5LAYBR model makes extra-tropical forecasts for periods up to 48 hours. Forecasts of layer and total cloud, cloud type, layer temperatures , and

  11. ESA SSA Space Weather Services Supporting Space Surveillance and Tracking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luntama, Juha-Pekka; Glover, Alexi; Hilgers, Alain; Fletcher, Emmet

    2012-07-01

    ESA Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Preparatory Programme was started in 2009. The objective of the programme is to support the European independent utilisation of and access to space research or services. This will be performed through providing timely and quality data, information, services and knowledge regarding the environment, the threats and the sustainable exploitation of the outer space surrounding the planet Earth. SSA serves the implementation of the strategic missions of the European Space Policy based on the peaceful uses of the outer space by all states, by supporting the autonomous capacity to securely and safely operate the critical European space infrastructures. The Space Weather (SWE) Segment of the SSA will provide user services related to the monitoring of the Sun, the solar wind, the radiation belts, the magnetosphere and the ionosphere. These services will include near real time information and forecasts about the characteristics of the space environment and predictions of space weather impacts on sensitive spaceborne and ground based infrastructure. The SSA SWE system will also include establishment of a permanent database for analysis, model development and scientific research. These services are will support a wide variety of user domains including spacecraft designers, spacecraft operators, human space flights, users and operators of transionospheric radio links, and space weather research community. The precursor SWE services to be established starting in 2010. This presentation provides an overview of the ESA SSA SWE services focused on supporting the Space Surveillance and Tracking users. This services include estimates of the atmospheric drag and archive and forecasts of the geomagnetic and solar indices. In addition, the SSA SWE system will provide nowcasts of the ionospheric group delay to support mitigation of the ionospheric impact on radar signals. The paper will discuss the user requirements for the services, the data

  12. Space Weather Workshop 2010 to Be Held in April

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peltzer, Thomas

    2010-03-01

    The annual Space Weather Workshop will be held in Boulder, Colo., 27-30 April 2010. The workshop will bring customers, forecasters, commercial service providers, researchers, and government agencies together in a lively dialogue about space weather. The workshop will include 4 days of plenary sessions on a variety of topics, with poster sessions focusing on the Sun, interplanetary space, the magnetosphere, and the ionosphere. The conference will address the remarkably diverse impacts of space weather on today's technology. Highlights on this year's agenda include ionospheric storms and their impacts on the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), an update on NASA's recently launched Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), and new space weather-related activities in the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Also this year, the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group will feature a presentation by former NOAA administrator, Vice Admiral Conrad Lautenbacher, U.S. Navy (Ret.).

  13. A survey of customers of space weather information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schrijver, C. J.; Rabanal, J. P.

    2013-09-01

    We present an analysis of the users of space weather information based on 2783 responses to an online survey among subscribers of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center e-mail services. The survey requested information focused on the three NOAA space weather scales: geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, and radio blackouts. Space weather information is most commonly obtained for reasons of human safety and continuity or reliability of operations. The information is primarily used for situational awareness, as aid to understand anomalies, to avoid impacts on current and near-future operations by implementing mitigating strategies, and to prepare for potential near-future impacts that might occur in conjunction with contingencies that include electric power outages or GPS perturbations. Interest in, anticipated impacts from, and responses to the three main categories of space weather are quite uniform across societal sectors. Approximately 40% of the respondents expect serious to very serious impacts from space weather events if no action were taken to mitigate or in the absence of adequate space weather information. The impacts of space weather are deemed to be substantially reduced because of the availability of, and their response to, space weather forecasts and alerts. Current and near-future space weather conditions are generally highly valued, considered useful, and generally, though not fully, adequate to avoid or mitigate societal impacts. We conclude that even among those receiving space weather information, there is considerable uncertainty about the possible impacts of space weather and thus about how to act on the space weather information that is provided.

  14. Forecast and virtual weather driven plant disease risk modeling system

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    We describe a system in use and development that leverages public weather station data, several spatialized weather forecast types, leaf wetness estimation, generic plant disease models, and online statistical evaluation. Convergent technological developments in all these areas allow, with funding f...

  15. 2011 Space Weather Workshop to Be Held in April

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peltzer, Thomas

    2011-04-01

    The annual Space Weather Workshop will be held in Boulder, Colo., 26-29 April 2011. The workshop will bring customers, forecasters, commercial service providers, researchers, and government agencies together in a lively dialogue about space weather. The workshop will include 4 days of plenary sessions on a variety of topics, with poster sessions focusing on the Sun, interplanetary space, the magnetosphere, and the ionosphere. The conference will address the remarkably diverse impacts of space weather on today's technology. Highlights on this year's agenda will include presentations on space weather impacts on the Global Positioning System (GPS), the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory's (STEREO) mission milestone of a 360° view of the Sun, the latest from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), and space weather impacts on emergency response by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Additionally, the vulnerabilities of satellites and the power grid to space weather will be addressed. Additional highlights will include the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group's (CSWIG) roundtable session and a presentation from the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM). The CSWIG roundtable session on the growth of the space weather enterprise will feature distinguished panelists. As always, lively interaction between the audience and the panel is anticipated. The OFCM will present the National Space Weather Program's new strategic plan.

  16. Validation of Space Weather Models at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuznetsova, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Hesse, M.; Chulaki, A.; Maddox, M.

    2011-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multiagency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather modes. CCMC goal is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. The presentation will demonstrate the recent progress in CCMC metrics and validation activities.

  17. Forecast Validation and Verification for Earthquakes, Weather and Finance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.; Tiampo, K.

    2009-04-01

    Techniques for earthquake forecasting are in development using both seismicity data mining methods, as well as numerical simulations. Testing such forecasts is necessary not only to determine forecast quality, but also to carry out forecast improvement. A large number of techniques to validate and verify forecasts have been developed for weather and financial applications. Many of these have been elaborated in public locations, including http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/staff/eee/verif/verif_web_page.html. Typically, the goal is to test for forecast resolution, reliability and sharpness. A good forecast is characterized by consistency, quality and value. Most, if not all of these forecast verification procedures can be readily applied to earthquake forecasts as well. In this talk, we discuss a number of these methods, and show how they might be useful for both fault-based forecasting, a group that includes the WGCEP and simulator-based renewal models, and grid-based forecasting, which includes the Relative Intensity, Pattern Informatics, and smoothed seismicity methods. We find that applying these standard methods of forecast verification is straightforward, and we conclude that judgments about the quality of a given forecast method can often depend on the test applied.

  18. Next-Generation Severe Weather Forecasting and Communication

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rothfusz, Lans P.; Karstens, Christopher; Hilderband, Douglas

    2014-09-01

    Despite advances in the hazardous weather predictive skills of forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) [Simmons and Sutter, 2011], the underlying methodologies used to generate severe weather watches (i.e., announcements that the potential for severe weather exists) and warnings (i.e., announcements that severe weather conditions are occurring or imminent) have changed little since they were first issued in 1965. The resulting text-based, deterministic (i.e., a single, most accurate value) messages lack the detail and flexibility to match the technology, science, diversity, lifestyles, and vulnerability of society today.

  19. Uncertainty forecasts improve weather-related decisions and attenuate the effects of forecast error.

    PubMed

    Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

    2012-03-01

    Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather warning system is used. The work reported here tested the relative benefits of several forecast formats, comparing decisions made with and without uncertainty forecasts. In three experiments, participants assumed the role of a manager of a road maintenance company in charge of deciding whether to pay to salt the roads and avoid a potential penalty associated with icy conditions. Participants used overnight low temperature forecasts accompanied in some conditions by uncertainty estimates and in others by decision advice comparable to categorical warnings. Results suggested that uncertainty information improved decision quality overall and increased trust in the forecast. Participants with uncertainty forecasts took appropriate precautionary action and withheld unnecessary action more often than did participants using deterministic forecasts. When error in the forecast increased, participants with conventional forecasts were reluctant to act. However, this effect was attenuated by uncertainty forecasts. Providing categorical decision advice alone did not improve decisions. However, combining decision advice with uncertainty estimates resulted in the best performance overall. The results reported here have important implications for the development of forecast formats to increase compliance with severe weather warnings as well as other domains in which one must act in the face of uncertainty. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  20. GIM-TEC adaptive ionospheric weather assessment and forecast system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gulyaeva, T. L.; Arikan, F.; Hernandez-Pajares, M.; Stanislawska, I.

    2013-09-01

    The Ionospheric Weather Assessment and Forecast (IWAF) system is a computer software package designed to assess and predict the world-wide representation of 3-D electron density profiles from the Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content (GIM-TEC). The unique system products include daily-hourly numerical global maps of the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and the peak height (hmF2) generated with the International Reference Ionosphere extended to the plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, upgraded by importing the daily-hourly GIM-TEC as a new model driving parameter. Since GIM-TEC maps are provided with 1- or 2-days latency, the global maps forecast for 1 day and 2 days ahead are derived using an harmonic analysis applied to the temporal changes of TEC, foF2 and hmF2 at 5112 grid points of a map encapsulated in IONEX format (-87.5°:2.5°:87.5°N in latitude, -180°:5°:180°E in longitude). The system provides online the ionospheric disturbance warnings in the global W-index map establishing categories of the ionospheric weather from the quiet state (W=±1) to intense storm (W=±4) according to the thresholds set for instant TEC perturbations regarding quiet reference median for the preceding 7 days. The accuracy of IWAF system predictions of TEC, foF2 and hmF2 maps is superior to the standard persistence model with prediction equal to the most recent ‘true’ map. The paper presents outcomes of the new service expressed by the global ionospheric foF2, hmF2 and W-index maps demonstrating the process of origin and propagation of positive and negative ionosphere disturbances in space and time and their forecast under different scenarios.

  1. Post Processing Numerical Weather Prediction Model Rainfall Forecasts for Use in Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, D. L.; Robertson, D.; Bennett, J.; Ward, P.; Wang, Q. J.

    2012-12-01

    Through the water information research and development alliance (WIRADA) project, CSIRO is conducting research to improve flood and short-term streamflow forecasting services delivered by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. WIRADA aims to build and test systems to generate ensemble flood and short-term streamflow forecasts with lead times of up to 10 days by integrating rainfall forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and hydrological modelling. Here we present an overview of the latest progress towards developing this system. Rainfall during the forecast period is a major source of uncertainty in streamflow forecasting. Ensemble rainfall forecasts are used in streamflow forecasting to characterise the rainfall uncertainty. In Australia, NWP models provide forecasts of rainfall and other weather conditions for lead times of up to 10 days. However, rainfall forecasts from Australian NWP models are deterministic and often contain systematic errors. We use a simplified Bayesian joint probability (BJP) method to post-process rainfall forecasts from the latest generation of Australian NWP models. The BJP method generates reliable and skilful ensemble rainfall forecasts. The post-processed rainfall ensembles are then used to force a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall runoff model to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The performance of the ensemble streamflow forecasts is evaluated on a number of Australian catchments and the benefits of using post processed rainfall forecasts are demonstrated.

  2. Communicating space weather to policymakers and the wider public

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreira, Bárbara

    2014-05-01

    As a natural hazard, space weather has the potential to affect space- and ground-based technological systems and cause harm to human health. As such, it is important to properly communicate this topic to policymakers and the general public alike, informing them (without being unnecessarily alarmist) about the potential impact of space-weather phenomena and how these can be monitored and mitigated. On the other hand, space weather is related to interesting phenomena on the Sun such as coronal-mass ejections, and incorporates one of the most beautiful displays in the Earth and its nearby space environment: aurora. These exciting and fascinating aspects of space weather should be cultivated when communicating this topic to the wider public, particularly to younger audiences. Researchers have a key role to play in communicating space weather to both policymakers and the wider public. Space scientists should have an active role in informing policy decisions on space-weather monitoring and forecasting, for example. And they can exercise their communication skills by talking about space weather to school children and the public in general. This presentation will focus on ways to communicate space weather to wider audiences, particularly policymakers. It will also address the role researchers can play in this activity to help bridge the gap between the space science community and the public.

  3. Earth Remote Sensing for Weather Forecasting and Disaster Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molthan, Andrew; Bell, Jordan; Case, Jonathan; Cole, Tony; Elmer, Nicholas; McGrath, Kevin; Schultz, Lori; Zavodsky, Brad

    2016-01-01

    NASA's constellation of current missions provide several opportunities to apply satellite remote sensing observations to weather forecasting and disaster response applications. Examples include: Using NASA's Terra and Aqua MODIS, and the NASA/NOAA Suomi-NPP VIIRS missions to prepare weather forecasters for capabilities of GOES-R; Incorporating other NASA remote sensing assets for improving aspects of numerical weather prediction; Using NASA, NOAA, and international partner resources (e.g. ESA/Sentinel Series); and commercial platforms (high-res, or UAV) to support disaster mapping.

  4. A regressive storm model for extreme space weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terkildsen, Michael; Steward, Graham; Neudegg, Dave; Marshall, Richard

    2012-07-01

    Extreme space weather events, while rare, pose significant risk to society in the form of impacts on critical infrastructure such as power grids, and the disruption of high end technological systems such as satellites and precision navigation and timing systems. There has been an increased focus on modelling the effects of extreme space weather, as well as improving the ability of space weather forecast centres to identify, with sufficient lead time, solar activity with the potential to produce extreme events. This paper describes the development of a data-based model for predicting the occurrence of extreme space weather events from solar observation. The motivation for this work was to develop a tool to assist space weather forecasters in early identification of solar activity conditions with the potential to produce extreme space weather, and with sufficient lead time to notify relevant customer groups. Data-based modelling techniques were used to construct the model, and an extensive archive of solar observation data used to train, optimise and test the model. The optimisation of the base model aimed to eliminate false negatives (missed events) at the expense of a tolerable increase in false positives, under the assumption of an iterative improvement in forecast accuracy during progression of the solar disturbance, as subsequent data becomes available.

  5. Ionospheric research for space weather service support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stanislawska, Iwona; Gulyaeva, Tamara; Dziak-Jankowska, Beata

    2016-07-01

    Knowledge of the behavior of the ionosphere is very important for space weather services. A wide variety of ground based and satellite existing and future systems (communications, radar, surveillance, intelligence gathering, satellite operation, etc) is affected by the ionosphere. There are the needs for reliable and efficient support for such systems against natural hazard and minimalization of the risk failure. The joint research Project on the 'Ionospheric Weather' of IZMIRAN and SRC PAS is aimed to provide on-line the ionospheric parameters characterizing the space weather in the ionosphere. It is devoted to science, techniques and to more application oriented areas of ionospheric investigation in order to support space weather services. The studies based on data mining philosophy increasing the knowledge of ionospheric physical properties, modelling capabilities and gain applications of various procedures in ionospheric monitoring and forecasting were concerned. In the framework of the joint Project the novel techniques for data analysis, the original system of the ionospheric disturbance indices and their implementation for the ionosphere and the ionospheric radio wave propagation are developed since 1997. Data of ionosonde measurements and results of their forecasting for the ionospheric observatories network, the regional maps and global ionospheric maps of total electron content from the navigational satellite system (GNSS) observations, the global maps of the F2 layer peak parameters (foF2, hmF2) and W-index of the ionospheric variability are provided at the web pages of SRC PAS and IZMIRAN. The data processing systems include analysis and forecast of geomagnetic indices ap and kp and new eta index applied for the ionosphere forecasting. For the first time in the world the new products of the W-index maps analysis are provided in Catalogues of the ionospheric storms and sub-storms and their association with the global geomagnetic Dst storms is

  6. Translating Ensemble Weather Forecasts into Probabilistic User-Relevant Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steiner, Matthias; Sharman, Robert; Hopson, Thomas; Liu, Yubao; Chapman, Michael

    2010-05-01

    Weather-related decisions increasingly rely on probabilistic information as a means of assessing the risk of one potential outcome over another. Ensemble forecasting presents one of the key approaches trying to grasp the uncertainty of weather forecasting. Moreover, in the future decision makers will rely on tools that fully integrate weather information into the decision making process. Through these decision support tools, weather information will be translated into impact information. This presentation will highlight the translation of gridded ensemble weather forecasts into probabilistic user-relevant information. Examples will be discussed that relate to the management of air traffic, noise and pollution dispersion, missile trajectory prediction, water resources and flooding, wind energy production, and road maintenance. The primary take-home message from these examples will be that weather forecasts have to be tailored with a specific user perspective in mind rather than a "one fits all" approach, where a standard forecast product gets thrown over the fence and the user has to figure out what to do with it.

  7. Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Weather Forecasts in the ECMWF Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bozzo, A.; Benedetti, A.; Rodwell, M. J.; Bechtold, P.; Remy, S.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosols play an important role in the energy balance of the Earth system via direct scattering and absorpiton of short-wave and long-wave radiation and indirect interaction with clouds. Diabatic heating or cooling by aerosols can also modify the vertical stability of the atmosphere and influence weather pattern with potential impact on the skill of global weather prediction models. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides operational daily analysis and forecast of aerosol optical depth (AOD) for five aerosol species using a prognostic model which is part of the Integrated Forecasting System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF-IFS). The aerosol component was developed during the research project Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC). Aerosols can have a large impact on the weather forecasts in case of large aerosol concentrations as found during dust storms or strong pollution events. However, due to its computational burden, prognostic aerosols are not yet feasible in the ECMWF operational weather forecasts, and monthly-mean climatological fields are used instead. We revised the aerosol climatology used in the operational ECMWF IFS with one derived from the MACC reanalysis. We analyse the impact of changes in the aerosol radiative effect on the mean model climate and in medium-range weather forecasts, also in comparison with prognostic aerosol fields. The new climatology differs from the previous one by Tegen et al 1997, both in the spatial distribution of the total AOD and the optical properties of each aerosol species. The radiative impact of these changes affects the model mean bias at various spatial and temporal scales. On one hand we report small impacts on measures of large-scale forecast skill but on the other hand details of the regional distribution of aerosol concentration have a large local impact. This is the case for the northern Indian Ocean where the radiative impact of the mineral

  8. Anthropogenic Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gombosi, T. I.; Baker, D. N.; Balogh, A.; Erickson, P. J.; Huba, J. D.; Lanzerotti, L. J.

    2017-04-01

    Anthropogenic effects on the space environment started in the late 19th century and reached their peak in the 1960s when high-altitude nuclear explosions were carried out by the USA and the Soviet Union. These explosions created artificial radiation belts near Earth that resulted in major damages to several satellites. Another, unexpected impact of the high-altitude nuclear tests was the electromagnetic pulse (EMP) that can have devastating effects over a large geographic area (as large as the continental United States). Other anthropogenic impacts on the space environment include chemical release experiments, high-frequency wave heating of the ionosphere and the interaction of VLF waves with the radiation belts. This paper reviews the fundamental physical process behind these phenomena and discusses the observations of their impacts.

  9. The impact of Sun-weather research on forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larsen, M. F.

    1979-01-01

    The possible impact of Sun-weather research on forecasting is examined. The type of knowledge of the effect is evaluated to determine if it is in a form that can be used for forecasting purposes. It is concluded that the present understanding of the effect does not lend itself readily to applications for forecast purposes. The limits of present predictive skill are examined and it is found that skill is most lacking for prediction of the smallest scales of atmospheric motion. However, it is not expected that Sun-weather research will have any significant impact on forecasting the smaller scales since predictability at these scales is limited by the finite grid size resolution and the time scales of turbulent diffusion. The predictability limits for the largest scales are on the order of several weeks although presently only a one week forecast is achievable.

  10. The impact of Sun-weather research on forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larsen, M. F.

    1979-01-01

    The possible impact of Sun-weather research on forecasting is examined. The type of knowledge of the effect is evaluated to determine if it is in a form that can be used for forecasting purposes. It is concluded that the present understanding of the effect does not lend itself readily to applications for forecast purposes. The limits of present predictive skill are examined and it is found that skill is most lacking for prediction of the smallest scales of atmospheric motion. However, it is not expected that Sun-weather research will have any significant impact on forecasting the smaller scales since predictability at these scales is limited by the finite grid size resolution and the time scales of turbulent diffusion. The predictability limits for the largest scales are on the order of several weeks although presently only a one week forecast is achievable.

  11. Interactive 3D visualisation of ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rautenhaus, Marc; Grams, Christian M.; Schäfler, Andreas; Westermann, Rüdiger

    2013-04-01

    We investigate the feasibility of interactive 3D visualisation of ensemble weather predictions in a way suited for weather forecasting during aircraft-based atmospheric field campaigns. The study builds upon our previous work on web-based, 2D visualisation of numerical weather prediction data for the purpose of research flight planning (Rautenhaus et al., Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 55-71, 2012). Now we explore how interactive 3D visualisation of ensemble forecasts can be used to quickly identify atmospheric features relevant to a flight and to assess their uncertainty. We use data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) and present techniques to interactively visualise the forecasts on a commodity desktop PC with a state-of-the-art graphics card. Major objectives of this study are: (1) help the user transition from the ``familiar'' 2D views (horizontal maps and vertical cross-sections) to 3D visualisation by putting interactive 2D views into a 3D context and enriching them with 3D elements, at the same time (2) maintain a high degree of quantitativeness in the visualisation to facilitate easy interpretation; (3) exploitation of the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) for maximum interactivity; (4) investigation of how visualisation can be performed directly from datasets on ECMWF hybrid model levels; (5) development of a basic forecasting tool that provides synchronized navigation through forecast base and lead times, as well as through the ensemble dimension and (6) interactive computation and visualisation of ensemble-based quantities. A prototype of our tool was used for weather forecasting during the aircraft-based T-NAWDEX-Falcon field campaign, which took place in October 2012 at the German Aerospace Centre's (DLR) Oberpfaffenhofen base. We reconstruct the forecast of a warm conveyor belt situation that occurred during the campaign and discuss challenges and opportunities posed by employing three

  12. Space Weather Applications of the UAF Eulerian Parallel Polar Ionosphere Model (EPPIM)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-06-01

    list in Figure 1) and from other facilities (for instance, HAARP digizonde at Gakona, Alaska). Space Weather Applications of the UAF Eulerian...RTO-MP-IST-056 11 - 1 UNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED UNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED Space Weather Applications of the UAF Eulerian Parallel Polar Ionosphere...series of geophysical indices is capable of providing useful space weather forecasts. Further improvement of the forecasts by applying data

  13. Asteroids: Does Space Weathering Matter?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gaffey, Michael J.

    2001-01-01

    The interpretive calibrations and methodologies used to extract mineralogy from asteroidal spectra appear to remain valid until the space weathering process is advanced to a degree which appears to be rare or absent on asteroid surfaces. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  14. Space weather throughout the heliosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Intriligator, Devrie S.; Detman, Thomas; Intriligator, James; Dryer, Murray; Sun, Wei; Deehr, Charles; Webber, William R.; Decker, Robert B.; McPherron, Robert L.

    2012-11-01

    We have analyzed space weather throughout the heliosphere using the three-dimensional (3D) timedependent magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Hybrid Heliospheric Modeling System with Pickup Protons (HHMS-PI) [1] out to Voyager 2 (V2) and beyond by comparing the HHMS-PI model results with the available spacecraft data. We also have analyzed space weather throughout the heliosphere through in-depth analyses of the available simultaneous data from a number of instruments on spacecraft at various locations. In this paper we focus on our HHMS-PI modeling (starting at the Sun) of the Halloween 2003 solar events by comparing the model results with spacecraft data at ACE and Ulysses. For the Halloween 2003 solar events we also summarize our inter-comparisons of the in-situ V2 data from many of the V2 instruments. These analyses of the comparisons ("benchmarking") of HHMS-PI simulations and the various spacecraft data and of our in-depth analyses of the V2 particle and field data indicate that particle acceleration and other important physical processes are associated with the heliospheric propagation of these large solar cycle 23 space weather events. We conclude that space weather, originating at the Sun, can have important affects throughout the heliosphere to distances as great as 73 AU and beyond.

  15. Predicting and mitigating impacts of extreme space weather (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, D. N.

    2010-12-01

    Vulnerability of society to extreme space weather is an issue of increasing worldwide concern. For example, electric power networks connecting widely separated geographic areas may incur devastating damage induced by geomagnetic storms. Also, the miniaturization of electronic components in spacecraft systems makes them potentially much more susceptible to damage during space weather disturbances. The conclusion of a recent National Academy of Sciences report was that severe space weather events can cause tens of millions to many billions of dollars of damage to space and ground-based assets during major solar storms. The most extreme events could cause months-long power outages and could cost >1$ trillion. In this presentation, we discuss broad socioeconomic impacts of space weather and also discuss the immense potential benefits of improved space weather forecasts. Such forecasts take advantage of our increased understanding of the Earth’s space environmental conditions and the causative solar drivers. We consider scenarios of how forecasts could be used most effectively by policy makers and management officials.

  16. Community Coordinated Modeling Center: A Powerful Resource in Space Science and Space Weather Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chulaki, A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; MacNeice, P. J.; Shim, J. S.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Mendoza, A. M. M.; Zheng, Y.; Mullinix, R.; Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Maddox, M. M.; Pembroke, A. D.; Wiegand, C.

    2015-12-01

    Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a NASA affiliated interagency partnership with the primary goal of aiding the transition of modern space science models into space weather forecasting while supporting space science research. Additionally, over the past ten years it has established itself as a global space science education resource supporting undergraduate and graduate education and research, and spreading space weather awareness worldwide. A unique combination of assets, capabilities and close ties to the scientific and educational communities enable this small group to serve as a hub for raising generations of young space scientists and engineers. CCMC resources are publicly available online, providing unprecedented global access to the largest collection of modern space science models (developed by the international research community). CCMC has revolutionized the way simulations are utilized in classrooms settings, student projects, and scientific labs and serves hundreds of educators, students and researchers every year. Another major CCMC asset is an expert space weather prototyping team primarily serving NASA's interplanetary space weather needs. Capitalizing on its unrivaled capabilities and experiences, the team provides in-depth space weather training to students and professionals worldwide, and offers an amazing opportunity for undergraduates to engage in real-time space weather monitoring, analysis, forecasting and research. In-house development of state-of-the-art space weather tools and applications provides exciting opportunities to students majoring in computer science and computer engineering fields to intern with the software engineers at the CCMC while also learning about the space weather from the NASA scientists.

  17. Space weather models and their validation and verification at the CCMC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hesse, Michael; Berrios Lutz Rastaetter, Masha Kuznetsova Marlo Maddox Antti Pulkkinen Ja Soon Shim David; MacNeice, Peter; Taktakishvili, Sandro; Chulaki, Anna; Moiseev, Larisa; Bakshi, Sarabjit; Patel, Kiran

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US multi-agency activity with a dual mission. With equal emphasis, CCMC strives to provide science support to the interna-tional space research community through the execution of advanced space plasma simulations, and it endeavors to support the space weather needs of the US and partners. Space weather support involves a broad spectrum, from designing robust forecasting systems and transitioning them to forecasters, to providing space weather updates and forecasts to NASA's robotic mis-sion operators. All of these activities have to rely on validation and verification of models and their products, so users and forecasters have the means to assign confidence levels to the space weather information. In this presentation, we provide an overview of space weather models resident at CCMC, as well as of validation and verification activities undertaken at CCMC or through the use of CCMC services.

  18. Space Weather Models and Their Validation and Verification at the CCMC

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael

    2010-01-01

    The Community Coordinated l\\lodeling Center (CCMC) is a US multi-agency activity with a dual mission. With equal emphasis, CCMC strives to provide science support to the international space research community through the execution of advanced space plasma simulations, and it endeavors to support the space weather needs of the CS and partners. Space weather support involves a broad spectrum, from designing robust forecasting systems and transitioning them to forecasters, to providing space weather updates and forecasts to NASA's robotic mission operators. All of these activities have to rely on validation and verification of models and their products, so users and forecasters have the means to assign confidence levels to the space weather information. In this presentation, we provide an overview of space weather models resident at CCMC, as well as of validation and verification activities undertaken at CCMC or through the use of CCMC services.

  19. How are Space Weather and Space Climate Connected to Solar Phenomena?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Many aspects of modern society are susceptible to space weather effects. Pertinent space weather effects include high-energy electromagnetic and particle radiation, changes of atmospheric drag, reduction of GPS accuracy or complete loss of GPS signals, communication outages, and the generation of potentially harmful DC currents in our electric power grid. Beginning in the early 1990s, researchers and government have been increasingly aware of the need to understand the causes of space weather, and to find ways to mitigate deleterious effects associated with it. New research and development programs have been created to address space weather primarily at NASA but also at other agencies. This investment has been very fruitful by generating a new class of entirely new space weather specification and forecast capabilities. This presentation provides an overview of space weather causes and effects, as well as of research and development to forecast and mitigate space weather effects. It will include a discussion of modern space weather analysis and forecasting, and conclude by pointing out paths into the future.

  20. NASA's Internal Space Weather Working Group

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    St. Cyr, O. C.; Guhathakurta, M.; Bell, H.; Niemeyer, L.; Allen, J.

    2011-01-01

    Measurements from many of NASA's scientific spacecraft are used routinely by space weather forecasters, both in the U.S. and internationally. ACE, SOHO (an ESA/NASA collaboration), STEREO, and SDO provide images and in situ measurements that are assimilated into models and cited in alerts and warnings. A number of years ago, the Space Weather laboratory was established at NASA-Goddard, along with the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. Within that organization, a space weather service center has begun issuing alerts for NASA's operational users. NASA's operational user community includes flight operations for human and robotic explorers; atmospheric drag concerns for low-Earth orbit; interplanetary navigation and communication; and the fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles, high altitude aircraft, and launch vehicles. Over the past three years we have identified internal stakeholders within NASA and formed a Working Group to better coordinate their expertise and their needs. In this presentation we will describe this activity and some of the challenges in forming a diverse working group.

  1. Using Helioseismology to Improve Space Weather Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinard, Alysha

    2010-05-01

    Solar flares and CMEs cause dramatic effects at the Earth, including damage to satellite electronics, loss of airline communications, and degradation, or even complete loss, of GPS. These effects become more disruptive as we become increasingly reliant on highly sophisticated technology. However, it is very difficult to predict when and where these events will occur or how large they will be. Helioseismology has recently emerged as a potentially powerful tool for understanding and predicting space weather events. In the last few years, a series of studies using ring diagram helioseismology has found evidence that signatures of subsurface twisting and emerging flux can be related to flaring activity. In particular, a recent study finds that these signatures are present 2-3 days prior to the occurrence of a flare. In this lecture I will provide a brief overview of helioseismology as well as current space weather forecasting capabilities and needs. The lecture will conclude with the recent work on flare forecasting that draws these two fields together.

  2. Trends in the predictive performance of raw ensemble weather forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemri, Stephan; Scheuerer, Michael; Pappenberger, Florian; Bogner, Konrad; Haiden, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Over the last two decades the paradigm in weather forecasting has shifted from being deterministic to probabilistic. Accordingly, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been run increasingly as ensemble forecasting systems. The goal of such ensemble forecasts is to approximate the forecast probability distribution by a finite sample of scenarios. Global ensemble forecast systems, like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble, are prone to probabilistic biases, and are therefore not reliable. They particularly tend to be underdispersive for surface weather parameters. Hence, statistical post-processing is required in order to obtain reliable and sharp forecasts. In this study we apply statistical post-processing to ensemble forecasts of near-surface temperature, 24-hour precipitation totals, and near-surface wind speed from the global ECMWF model. Our main objective is to evaluate the evolution of the difference in skill between the raw ensemble and the post-processed forecasts. The ECMWF ensemble is under continuous development, and hence its forecast skill improves over time. Parts of these improvements may be due to a reduction of probabilistic bias. Thus, we first hypothesize that the gain by post-processing decreases over time. Based on ECMWF forecasts from January 2002 to March 2014 and corresponding observations from globally distributed stations we generate post-processed forecasts by ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) for each station and variable. Parameter estimates are obtained by minimizing the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) over rolling training periods that consist of the n days preceding the initialization dates. Given the higher average skill in terms of CRPS of the post-processed forecasts for all three variables, we analyze the evolution of the difference in skill between raw ensemble and EMOS forecasts. The fact that the gap in skill remains almost constant over time, especially for near

  3. Probability Forecasting: A Guide for Forecasters and Staff Weather Officers

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-12-01

    100% 40 1 1 6 17% 0 20 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 9 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Totals Climo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 031 32% Forecast Frequency S- Legend: 1...Corresponding to Expected Brier Scores for Forecasts with Two Categories Shown in Table 4-9. (Multiply by 100 to obtain percentages.) CORRELATION CLIMO % 0

  4. Adaptive Numerical Algorithms in Space Weather Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Toth, Gabor; vanderHolst, Bart; Sokolov, Igor V.; DeZeeuw, Darren; Gombosi, Tamas I.; Fang, Fang; Manchester, Ward B.; Meng, Xing; Nakib, Dalal; Powell, Kenneth G.; Stout, Quentin F.; Glocer, Alex; Ma, Ying-Juan; Opher, Merav

    2010-01-01

    Space weather describes the various processes in the Sun-Earth system that present danger to human health and technology. The goal of space weather forecasting is to provide an opportunity to mitigate these negative effects. Physics-based space weather modeling is characterized by disparate temporal and spatial scales as well as by different physics in different domains. A multi-physics system can be modeled by a software framework comprising of several components. Each component corresponds to a physics domain, and each component is represented by one or more numerical models. The publicly available Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) can execute and couple together several components distributed over a parallel machine in a flexible and efficient manner. The framework also allows resolving disparate spatial and temporal scales with independent spatial and temporal discretizations in the various models. Several of the computationally most expensive domains of the framework are modeled by the Block-Adaptive Tree Solar wind Roe Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) code that can solve various forms of the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equations, including Hall, semi-relativistic, multi-species and multi-fluid MHD, anisotropic pressure, radiative transport and heat conduction. Modeling disparate scales within BATS-R-US is achieved by a block-adaptive mesh both in Cartesian and generalized coordinates. Most recently we have created a new core for BATS-R-US: the Block-Adaptive Tree Library (BATL) that provides a general toolkit for creating, load balancing and message passing in a 1, 2 or 3 dimensional block-adaptive grid. We describe the algorithms of BATL and demonstrate its efficiency and scaling properties for various problems. BATS-R-US uses several time-integration schemes to address multiple time-scales: explicit time stepping with fixed or local time steps, partially steady-state evolution, point-implicit, semi-implicit, explicit/implicit, and fully implicit numerical

  5. Adaptive numerical algorithms in space weather modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tóth, Gábor; van der Holst, Bart; Sokolov, Igor V.; De Zeeuw, Darren L.; Gombosi, Tamas I.; Fang, Fang; Manchester, Ward B.; Meng, Xing; Najib, Dalal; Powell, Kenneth G.; Stout, Quentin F.; Glocer, Alex; Ma, Ying-Juan; Opher, Merav

    2012-02-01

    Space weather describes the various processes in the Sun-Earth system that present danger to human health and technology. The goal of space weather forecasting is to provide an opportunity to mitigate these negative effects. Physics-based space weather modeling is characterized by disparate temporal and spatial scales as well as by different relevant physics in different domains. A multi-physics system can be modeled by a software framework comprising several components. Each component corresponds to a physics domain, and each component is represented by one or more numerical models. The publicly available Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) can execute and couple together several components distributed over a parallel machine in a flexible and efficient manner. The framework also allows resolving disparate spatial and temporal scales with independent spatial and temporal discretizations in the various models. Several of the computationally most expensive domains of the framework are modeled by the Block-Adaptive Tree Solarwind Roe-type Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) code that can solve various forms of the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations, including Hall, semi-relativistic, multi-species and multi-fluid MHD, anisotropic pressure, radiative transport and heat conduction. Modeling disparate scales within BATS-R-US is achieved by a block-adaptive mesh both in Cartesian and generalized coordinates. Most recently we have created a new core for BATS-R-US: the Block-Adaptive Tree Library (BATL) that provides a general toolkit for creating, load balancing and message passing in a 1, 2 or 3 dimensional block-adaptive grid. We describe the algorithms of BATL and demonstrate its efficiency and scaling properties for various problems. BATS-R-US uses several time-integration schemes to address multiple time-scales: explicit time stepping with fixed or local time steps, partially steady-state evolution, point-implicit, semi-implicit, explicit/implicit, and fully implicit

  6. Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, Phase II

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III

    2008-01-01

    Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Light Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) created a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display Systems (MIDDS) to indicate the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input.

  7. Wind-Farm Forecasting Using the HARMONIE Weather Forecast Model and Bayes Model Averaging for Bias Removal.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Brien, Enda; McKinstry, Alastair; Ralph, Adam

    2015-04-01

    Building on previous work presented at EGU 2013 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876610213016068 ), more results are available now from a different wind-farm in complex terrain in southwest Ireland. The basic approach is to interpolate wind-speed forecasts from an operational weather forecast model (i.e., HARMONIE in the case of Ireland) to the precise location of each wind-turbine, and then use Bayes Model Averaging (BMA; with statistical information collected from a prior training-period of e.g., 25 days) to remove systematic biases. Bias-corrected wind-speed forecasts (and associated power-generation forecasts) are then provided twice daily (at 5am and 5pm) out to 30 hours, with each forecast validation fed back to BMA for future learning. 30-hr forecasts from the operational Met Éireann HARMONIE model at 2.5km resolution have been validated against turbine SCADA observations since Jan. 2014. An extra high-resolution (0.5km grid-spacing) HARMONIE configuration has been run since Nov. 2014 as an extra member of the forecast "ensemble". A new version of HARMONIE with extra filters designed to stabilize high-resolution configurations has been run since Jan. 2015. Measures of forecast skill and forecast errors will be provided, and the contributions made by the various physical and computational enhancements to HARMONIE will be quantified.

  8. Time Relevance of Convective Weather Forecast for Air Traffic Automation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chan, William N.

    2006-01-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is handling nearly 120,000 flights a day through its Air Traffic Management (ATM) system and air traffic congestion is expected to increse substantially over the next 20 years. Weather-induced impacts to throughput and efficiency are the leading cause of flight delays accounting for 70% of all delays with convective weather accounting for 60% of all weather related delays. To support the Next Generation Air Traffic System goal of operating at 3X current capacity in the NAS, ATC decision support tools are being developed to create advisories to assist controllers in all weather constraints. Initial development of these decision support tools did not integrate information regarding weather constraints such as thunderstorms and relied on an additional system to provide that information. Future Decision Support Tools should move towards an integrated system where weather constraints are factored into the advisory of a Decision Support Tool (DST). Several groups such at NASA-Ames, Lincoln Laboratories, and MITRE are integrating convective weather data with DSTs. A survey of current convective weather forecast and observation data show they span a wide range of temporal and spatial resolutions. Short range convective observations can be obtained every 5 mins with longer range forecasts out to several days updated every 6 hrs. Today, the short range forecasts of less than 2 hours have a temporal resolution of 5 mins. Beyond 2 hours, forecasts have much lower temporal. resolution of typically 1 hour. Spatial resolutions vary from 1km for short range to 40km for longer range forecasts. Improving the accuracy of long range convective forecasts is a major challenge. A report published by the National Research Council states improvements for convective forecasts for the 2 to 6 hour time frame will only be achieved for a limited set of convective phenomena in the next 5 to 10 years. Improved longer range forecasts will be probabilistic

  9. The Use of Conditional and Potential Instability Axes for Severe Weather Forecasting

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-03-01

    devise a severe weather forecast tool to objectively define a probabilistic forecast of severe weather for individual installations. This forecast...and 0 – 6 km shear will be added to the four predictors used to train the severe weather forecast . For this calculation, 6k  as previously shown

  10. Health Issues and Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crosby, N.

    2009-04-01

    The possibility that solar activity and variations in the Earth's magnetic field may affect human health has been debated for many decades but is still a "scientific topic" in its infancy. By learning whether and, if so, how much the Earth's space weather can influence the daily health of people will be of practical importance. Knowing whether human genetics, include regulating factors that take into account fluctuations of the Earth's magnetic field and solar disturbances, indeed exist will also benefit future interplanetary space travelers. Because the atmospheres on other planets are different from ours, as well as their interaction with the space environment, one may ask whether we are equipped with the genetics necessary to take this variability into account. The goal of this presentation is to define what is meant by space weather as a health risk and identify the long-term socio-economic effects on society that such health risks would have. Identifying the physical links between space weather sources and different effects on human health, as well as the parameters (direct and indirect) to be monitored, the potential for such a cross-disciplinary study will be invaluable, for scientists and medical doctors, as well as for engineers.

  11. Development of Advanced Space Weather Tools at Goddard Space Flight Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, Masha; Pulkkinen, Antti; Zheng, Yihua; Maddox, Marlo; Rastaetter, Lutz

    2013-04-01

    Space research, and, consequently, space weather forecasting are immature disciplines. Scientific knowledge is accumulated frequently, which changes our understanding or how solar eruptions occur, and of how they impact targets near or on the Earth, or targets throughout the heliosphere. Along with continuous progress in understanding, space research and forecasting models are advancing rapidly in capability, often providing substantially increases in space weather value over time scales of less than a year. Furthermore, the majority of space environment information available today is, particularly in the solar and heliospheric domains, derived from research missions. An optimal forecasting environment needs to be flexible enough to benefit from this rapid development, and flexible enough to adapt to evolving data sources, many of which may also stem from non-US entities. This presentation will analyze the experiences obtained by developing and operating both a forecasting service for NASA, and it will provide an overview of tool development at Goddard Space Flight Center.

  12. Operational Space Weather Needs - Perspectives from SEASONS 2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Comberiate, J.; Kelly, M. A.; Paxton, L. J.; Schaefer, R. K.; Bust, G. S.; Sotirelis, T.; Fox, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    A key challenge for the operational space weather community is the gap between the latest scientific data, models, methods, and indices and those that are currently used in operational systems. The November 2014 SEASONS (Space Environment Applications, Systems, and Operations for National Security) Workshop at JHU/APL in Laurel, Maryland, brings together representatives from the operational and scientific communities. The theme of SEASONS 2014 is "Beyond Climatology," with a focus on how space weather events threaten operational assets and disrupt missions. Here we present perspectives from SEASONS 2014 on new observations, models in development, and forecasting methods that are of interest to the operational space weather community. Highlighted topics include ionospheric data assimilation and forecasting models, HF propagation models, radiation belt observations, and energetic particle modeling. The SEASONS 2014 web site can be found at https://secwww.jhuapl.edu/SEASONS/

  13. European Space Weather Portal Open for Business

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Staedter, Tracy

    2006-10-01

    This past spring, the European Space Agency (ESA) launched the final release of a centralized Web site designed to showcase a variety of applications, services, and data products revolving around space weather. Called SWENET (Space Weather European Network), the endeavor is expected to create more communication between European scientists and those who use space weather data products and more enthusiasm for space weather among laypeople.

  14. Uncertainty Forecasts Improve Weather-Related Decisions and Attenuate the Effects of Forecast Error

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joslyn, Susan L.; LeClerc, Jared E.

    2012-01-01

    Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather…

  15. Uncertainty Forecasts Improve Weather-Related Decisions and Attenuate the Effects of Forecast Error

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joslyn, Susan L.; LeClerc, Jared E.

    2012-01-01

    Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather…

  16. Satellite Sounder Data Assimilation for Improving Alaska Region Weather Forecast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhu, Jiang; Stevens, E.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Zhang, X.; Heinrichs, T.; Broderson, D.

    2014-01-01

    Data assimilation has been demonstrated very useful in improving both global and regional numerical weather prediction. Alaska has very coarser surface observation sites. On the other hand, it gets much more satellite overpass than lower 48 states. How to utilize satellite data to improve numerical prediction is one of hot topics among weather forecast community in Alaska. The Geographic Information Network of Alaska (GINA) at University of Alaska is conducting study on satellite data assimilation for WRF model. AIRS/CRIS sounder profile data are used to assimilate the initial condition for the customized regional WRF model (GINA-WRF model). Normalized standard deviation, RMSE, and correlation statistic analysis methods are applied to analyze one case of 48 hours forecasts and one month of 24-hour forecasts in order to evaluate the improvement of regional numerical model from Data assimilation. The final goal of the research is to provide improved real-time short-time forecast for Alaska regions.

  17. Sunspots, Space Weather and Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.

    2009-01-01

    Four hundred years ago this year the telescope was first used for astronomical observations. Within a year, Galileo in Italy and Harriot in England reported seeing spots on the surface of the Sun. Yet, it took over 230 years of observations before a Swiss amateur astronomer noticed that the sunspots increased and decreased in number over a period of about 11 years. Within 15 years of this discovery of the sunspot cycle astronomers made the first observations of a flare on the surface of the Sun. In the 150 years since that discovery we have learned much about sunspots, the sunspot cycle, and the Sun s explosive events - solar flares, prominence eruptions and coronal mass ejections that usually accompany the sunspots. These events produce what is called Space Weather. The conditions in space are dramatically affected by these events. Space Weather can damage our satellites, harm our astronauts, and affect our lives here on the surface of planet Earth. Long term changes in the sunspot cycle have been linked to changes in our climate as well. In this public lecture I will give an introduction to sunspots, the sunspot cycle, space weather, and the possible impact of solar variability on our climate.

  18. WRF-Fire: coupled weather-wildland fire modeling with the weather research and forecasting model

    Treesearch

    Janice L. Coen; Marques Cameron; John Michalakes; Edward G. Patton; Philip J. Riggan; Kara M. Yedinak

    2012-01-01

    A wildland fire behavior module (WRF-Fire) was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire behavior model that is two-way coupled with the atmospheric model. Near-surface winds from the atmospheric model are interpolated to a finer fire grid and used, with fuel properties...

  19. Adapting a weather forecast model for greenhouse gas simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polavarapu, S. M.; Neish, M.; Tanguay, M.; Girard, C.; de Grandpré, J.; Gravel, S.; Semeniuk, K.; Chan, D.

    2015-12-01

    The ability to simulate greenhouse gases on the global domain is useful for providing boundary conditions for regional flux inversions, as well as for providing reference data for bias correction of satellite measurements. Given the existence of operational weather and environmental prediction models and assimilation systems at Environment Canada, it makes sense to use these tools for greenhouse gas simulations. In this work, we describe the adaptations needed to reasonably simulate CO2 with a weather forecast model. The main challenges were the implementation of a mass conserving advection scheme, and the careful implementation of a mixing ratio defined with respect to dry air. The transport of tracers through convection was also added, and the vertical mixing through the boundary layer was slightly modified. With all these changes, the model conserves CO2 mass well on the annual time scale, and the high resolution (0.9 degree grid spacing) permits a good description of synoptic scale transport. The use of a coupled meteorological/tracer transport model also permits an assessment of approximations needed in offline transport model approaches, such as the neglect of water vapour mass when computing a tracer mixing ratio with respect to dry air.

  20. Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields

    SciTech Connect

    Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

    2005-09-26

    Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

  1. Notes on a Vision for the Global Space Weather Enterprise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Head, James N.

    2015-07-01

    Space weather phenomena impacts human civilization on a global scale and hence calls for a global approach to research, monitoring, and operational forecasting. The Global Space Weather Enterprise (GSWE) could be arranged along lines well established in existing international frameworks related to space exploration or to the use of space to benefit humanity. The Enterprise need not establish a new organization, but could evolve from existing international organizations. A GSWE employing open architectural concepts could be arranged to promote participation by all interested States regardless of current differences in science and technical capacity. Such an Enterprise would engender capacity building and burden sharing opportunities.

  2. GPS Estimates of Integrated Precipitable Water Aid Weather Forecasters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, Angelyn W.; Gutman, Seth I.; Holub, Kirk; Bock, Yehuda; Danielson, David; Laber, Jayme; Small, Ivory

    2013-01-01

    Global Positioning System (GPS) meteorology provides enhanced density, low-latency (30-min resolution), integrated precipitable water (IPW) estimates to NOAA NWS (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis tration Nat ional Weather Service) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to provide improved model and satellite data verification capability and more accurate forecasts of extreme weather such as flooding. An early activity of this project was to increase the number of stations contributing to the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) GPS meteorology observing network in Southern California by about 27 stations. Following this, the Los Angeles/Oxnard and San Diego WFOs began using the enhanced GPS-based IPW measurements provided by ESRL in the 2012 and 2013 monsoon seasons. Forecasters found GPS IPW to be an effective tool in evaluating model performance, and in monitoring monsoon development between weather model runs for improved flood forecasting. GPS stations are multi-purpose, and routine processing for position solutions also yields estimates of tropospheric zenith delays, which can be converted into mm-accuracy PWV (precipitable water vapor) using in situ pressure and temperature measurements, the basis for GPS meteorology. NOAA ESRL has implemented this concept with a nationwide distribution of more than 300 "GPSMet" stations providing IPW estimates at sub-hourly resolution currently used in operational weather models in the U.S.

  3. Innovative Near Real-Time Data Dissemination Tools Developed by the Space Weather Research Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mullinix, R.; Maddox, M. M.; Berrios, D.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Zheng, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Space weather affects virtually all of NASA's endeavors, from robotic missions to human exploration. Knowledge and prediction of space weather conditions are therefore essential to NASA operations. The diverse nature of currently available space environment measurements and modeling products compels the need for a single access point to such information. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System provides this single point access along with the capability to collect and catalog a vast range of sources including both observational and model data. NASA Goddard Space Weather Research Center heavily utilizes the iSWA System daily for research, space weather model validation, and forecasting for NASA missions. iSWA provides the capabilities to view and analyze near real-time space weather data from any where in the world. This presentation will describe the technology behind the iSWA system and describe how to use the system for space weather research, forecasting, training, education, and sharing.

  4. A Single-Station Weather Forecasting Expert System.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-08-01

    This report describes the development of an early prototype expert system for the classical single-station weather forecasting problem. The skills...which include communications interruptions. Knowledge for the expert system was obtained from a meteorologist experienced in single-station weather...other functions and procedures written in LISP. The expert , system is able to emulate the expert for a several day case study used in the development

  5. Space weather observational activities and data management in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stanisławska, Iwona; Belehaki, Anna

    2009-03-01

    One of the primary scientific and technical goals of Space Weather investigations is to produce data in order to study the Sun impact on the Earth and its environment. Studies based on data mining philosophy increase our knowledge of the physical properties of Space Weather, modelling capabilities, and gain applications of various procedures in Space Weather monitoring and forecasting. The paper focuses on an analysis of the availability on the Internet of near-real time and historical collections of the European ground-based and satellite observations, operational indices and parameters. A detailed description of data delivered is included. The following issues are discussed: (1) raw observations, and/or corrected/updated data, (2) resolution and availability of real-time and historical data, (3) products resulting from models and theory including maps, forecasts and alerts, (4) platforms for data delivery.

  6. Verification of Public Weather Forecasts Available via the Media.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brooks, Harold E.; Witt, Arthur; Eilts, Michael D.

    1997-10-01

    The question of who is the "best" forecaster in a particular media market is one that the public frequently asks. The authors have collected approximately one year's forecasts from the National Weather Service and major media presentations for Oklahoma City. Diagnostic verification procedures indicate that the question of best does not have a clear answer. All of the forecast sources have strengths and weaknesses, and it is possible that a user could take information from a variety of sources to come up with a forecast that has more value than any one individual source provides. The analysis provides numerous examples of the utility of a distributions-oriented approach to verification while also providing insight into the problems the public faces in evaluating the array of forecasts presented to them.

  7. Space Weather Receives First "Impact Rating"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lanzerotti, Louis J.

    2007-08-01

    Journal Citation Reports, published by Thomson Scientific (http://scientific.thomson.com/isi/), has issued its first impact factor for Space Weather. It is 1.610. I consider this number to be very good, strongly validating the impact that Space Weather has already made in its short life within the community of space weather professionals.

  8. Skill in Precipitation Forecasting in the National Weather Service.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charba, Jerome P.; Klein, William H.

    1980-12-01

    All known long-term records of forecasting performance for different types of precipitation forecasts in the National Weather Service were examined for relative skill and secular trends in skill. The largest upward trends were achieved by local probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts for the periods 24-36 h and 36-48 h after 0000 and 1200 GMT. Over the last 13 years, the skill of these forecasts has improved at an average rate of 7.2% per 10-year interval. Over the same period, improvement has been smaller in local PoP skill in the 12-24 h range (2.0% per 10 years) and in the accuracy of "Yea/No" forecasts of measurable precipitation. The overall trend in accuracy of centralized quantitative precipitation forecasts of 0.5 in and 1.0 in has been slightly upward at the 0-24 h range and strongly upward at the 24-48 h range. Most of the improvement in these forecasts has been achieved from the early 1970s to the present. Strong upward accuracy trends in all types of precipitation forecasts within the past eight years are attributed primarily to improvements in numerical and statistical centralized guidance forecasts.The skill and accuracy of both measurable and quantitative precipitation forecasts is 35-55% greater during the cool season than during the warm season. Also, the secular rate of improvement of the cool season precipitation forecasts is 50-110% greater than that of the warm season. This seasonal difference in performance reflects the relative difficulty of forecasting predominantly stratiform precipitation of the cool season and convective precipitation of the warm season.

  9. Validation of Space Weather Models at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Maddox, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Berrios, D.; Zheng, Y.; MacNeice, P. J.; Shim, J.; Taktakishvili, A.; Chulaki, A.

    2011-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. Space weather models and coupled model chains hosted at the CCMC range from the solar corona to the Earth's upper atmosphere. CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as a large number of modeling and data products tailored to address the space weather needs of NASA's robotic missions. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. CCMC has been leading recent comprehensive modeling challenges under GEM, CEDAR and SHINE programs. The presentation will focus on experience in carrying out comprehensive and systematic validation of large sets of. space weather models

  10. Current gaps in understanding and predicting space weather: An operations perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murtagh, W. J.

    2016-12-01

    The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), one of the nine National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction, is the Nation's official source for space weather alerts and warnings. Space weather effects the technology that forms the backbone of global economic vitality and national security, including satellite and airline operations, communications networks, and the electric power grid. Many of SWPC's over 48,000 subscribers rely on space weather forecasts for critical decision making. But extraordinary gaps still exist in our ability to meet customer needs for accurate and timely space weather forecasts and warnings. The 2015 National Space Weather Strategy recognizes that it is imperative that we improve the fundamental understanding of space weather and increase the accuracy, reliability, and timeliness of space-weather observations and forecasts in support of the growing demands. In this talk we provide a broad perspective of the key challenges that currently limit the forecaster's ability to better understand and predict space weather. We also examine the impact of these limitations on the end-user community.

  11. Provision of space weather bulletins in support to ESA missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kruglanski, Michel; Devos, Andy; Calders, Stijn; De Donder, Erwin; Berghmans, David; Andries, Jesse; Crosby, Norma; Dierckxsens, Mark; Glover, Alexi

    2017-04-01

    The SSCC (SSA Space Weather Coordination Centre) is the focal point for user support of the ESA Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Program Space Weather Service Network (http://swe.ssa.esa.int/) and offers first line support to end-users. Its activities are gradually expanding as more products and tools are incorporated in the associated Network. Here we report on the tailoring of the network resources at the SSCC in order to produce space weather forecast notifications in support to selected ESA missions. With the help of forecasters from the Expert Service Centres (ECSs) for Solar Weather and for Space Radiation, the SSCC already has provided dedicated notifications for various missions including the launch window and the L2 insertion manoeuvre of the GAIA mission, for the last aerobraking campaign of Venus Express, during the trajectory around Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko of the Rosetta mission and the landing of Philae lander, for the flight of the experimental IXV space plane, and for the launch LISA Pathfinder mission and during the operations phase at L1. Examples of space weather notification will be given. Those exercises are performed in a test and evaluation context helping to evaluate the network capabilities and to identify recommendations for improvement.

  12. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    SciTech Connect

    Lundquist, K. A.

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  13. Forecasting Weather with a Wave of the Hand

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    Building upon its successful collaboration with NASA, Cybernet introduced GestureStorm(TradeMark), a weather map management system that utilizes both body tracking and gesture recognition technology for televised weather reports. The GestureStorm software interface enables meteorologists to control the computerized visual effects on weather maps using hand gestures and body movements. Prior to this, meteorologists prepared scripted on-air reports to coincide with the timing of graphics on the computerized maps. They knew when and where weather and Doppler radar maps would appear on the monitor, but could not react in real time. Cybernet s new product frees forecasters from a script, enabling them to directly interact with the weather picture in real time, significantly reducing the preparation time for the broadcast. With this technology, meteorologists control the pace of the visuals and can incorporate spontaneous close-ups with simple hand movements. In cases of severe weather, meteorologists strive to report new information as quickly as possible. GestureStorm gives forecasters an edge as they track late-breaking storms. The reduced preparation and real-time interaction shave critical minutes from the time required to broadcast severe weather warnings.

  14. The Sun and Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanslmeier, Arnold

    2007-06-01

    This second edition is a great enhancement of literature which will help the reader get deeper into the specific topics. There are new sections included such as space weather data sources and examples, new satellite missions, and the latest results. At the end a comprehensive index is given which will allow the reader to quickly find his topics of interest. The Sun and Space weather are two rapidly evolving topics. The importance of the Sun for the Earth, life on Earth, climate and weather processes was recognized long ago by the ancients. Now, for the first time there is a continuous surveillance of solar activity at nearly all wavelengths. These data can be used to improve our understanding of the complex Sun-Earth interaction. The first chapters of the book deal with the Sun as a star and its activity phenomena as well as its activity cycle in order to understand the complex physics of the Sun-Earth system. The reader will see that there are many phenomena but still no definite explanations and models exist for many of them. Other topics are the influences on the Earth's atmosphere, long and short term climate variations. The last chapters discuss the protection against enhanced radiation environment in view of upcoming manned missions to the Moon and Mars, and the threat from space debris, asteroids and meteoroids. Since the field is quite interdisciplinary, the book will be of interest to scientists working in different fields such as solar physics, geophysics, and space physics. Link: http://www.springer.com/west/home/generic/search/results?SGWID=4-40109-22-173699408-0

  15. Epidemic forecasting is messier than weather forecasting: The role of human behavior and internet data streams in epidemic forecast

    SciTech Connect

    Moran, Kelly Renee; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Generous, Nicholas; Hickmann, Kyle Scott; Osthus, Dave Allen; Priedhorsky, Reid; Hyman, James M.; Del Valle, Sara Yermimah

    2016-11-14

    Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection and Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. Here, we conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting.

  16. Epidemic forecasting is messier than weather forecasting: The role of human behavior and internet data streams in epidemic forecast

    DOE PAGES

    Moran, Kelly Renee; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Generous, Nicholas; ...

    2016-11-14

    Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection andmore » Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. Here, we conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting.« less

  17. Epidemic Forecasting is Messier Than Weather Forecasting: The Role of Human Behavior and Internet Data Streams in Epidemic Forecast.

    PubMed

    Moran, Kelly R; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Generous, Nicholas; Hickmann, Kyle; Osthus, Dave; Priedhorsky, Reid; Hyman, James; Del Valle, Sara Y

    2016-12-01

    Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection and Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. We conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  18. Geodetic Space Weather Monitoring by means of Ionosphere Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, Michael

    2017-04-01

    The term space weather indicates physical processes and phenomena in space caused by radiation of energy mainly from the Sun. Manifestations of space weather are (1) variations of the Earth's magnetic field, (2) the polar lights in the northern and southern hemisphere, (3) variations within the ionosphere as part of the upper atmosphere characterized by the existence of free electrons and ions, (4) the solar wind, i.e. the permanent emission of electrons and photons, (5) the interplanetary magnetic field, and (6) electric currents, e.g. the van Allen radiation belt. It can be stated that ionosphere disturbances are often caused by so-called solar storms. A solar storm comprises solar events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which have different effects on the Earth. Solar flares may cause disturbances in positioning, navigation and communication. CMEs can effect severe disturbances and in extreme cases damages or even destructions of modern infrastructure. Examples are interruptions to satellite services including the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), communication systems, Earth observation and imaging systems or a potential failure of power networks. Currently the measurements of solar satellite missions such as STEREO and SOHO are used to forecast solar events. Besides these measurements the Earth's ionosphere plays another key role in monitoring the space weather, because it responses to solar storms with an increase of the electron density. Space-geodetic observation techniques, such as terrestrial GNSS, satellite altimetry, space-borne GPS (radio occultation), DORIS and VLBI provide valuable global information about the state of the ionosphere. Additionally geodesy has a long history and large experience in developing and using sophisticated analysis and combination techniques as well as empirical and physical modelling approaches. Consequently, geodesy is predestinated for strongly supporting space weather monitoring via

  19. Convective scale weather analysis and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Purdom, J. F. W.

    1984-01-01

    How satellite data can be used to improve insight into the mesoscale behavior of the atmosphere is demonstrated with emphasis on the GOES-VAS sounding and image data. This geostationary satellite has the unique ability to observe frequently the atmosphere (sounders) and its cloud cover (visible and infrared) from the synoptic scale down to the cloud scale. These uniformly calibrated data sets can be combined with conventional data to reveal many of the features important in mesoscale weather development and evolution.

  20. Verification of operational weather forecasts from the POSEIDON system across the Eastern Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadopoulos, A.; Katsafados, P.

    2009-07-01

    The POSEIDON weather forecasting system became operational at the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR) in October 1999. The system with its nesting capability provided 72-h forecasts in two different model domains, i.e. 25- and 10-km grid spacing. The lower-resolution domain covered an extended area that included most of Europe, Mediterranean Sea and N. Africa, while the higher resolution domain focused on the Eastern Mediterranean. A major upgrade of the system was recently implemented in the framework of the POSEIDON-II project (2005-2008). The aim was to enhance the forecasting skill of the system through improved model parameterization schemes and advanced numerical techniques for assimilating available observations to produce high resolution analysis fields. The configuration of the new system is applied on a horizontal resolution of 1/20°×1/20° (~5 km) covering the Mediterranean basin, Black Sea and part of North Atlantic providing up to 5-day forecasts. This paper reviews and compares the current with the previous weather forecasting systems at HCMR presenting quantitative verification statistics from the pre-operational period (from mid-November 2007 to October 2008). The statistics are based on verification against surface observations from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) network across the Eastern Mediterranean region. The results indicate that the use of the new system can significantly improve the weather forecasts.

  1. The National Space Weather Strategy: Policy on Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murtagh, W. J.

    2016-12-01

    Ensuring that the United States is prepared to respond to and recover from severe space weather storms is a priority to the President and to this Administration. We cannot ignore the potential impact space weather may have on key infrastructures and technologies including aviation and satellite operations, the electric power grid, and GPS applications. These technologies form the very backbone of the critical technology infrastructure we rely on for so much of what we do today. In October 2015, OSTP Director John Holdren announced the release of the National Space Weather Strategy and the National Space Weather Action Plan. The Strategy identifies goals and establishes the principles that will guide efforts to develop national space-weather preparedness in both the near and long term, while the Action Plan identifies specific activities, outcomes, and timelines that the Federal government must pursue to be prepared for and resilient to future space-weather events. The Strategy recognizes that observations are the backbone of forecast and warning capabilities. The Strategy also recognized that to achieve a robust operational program for space-weather observations, the United States must: (1) establish and sustain a foundational set of observations; (2) when feasible and cost effective, use data from multiple sources, including international, Federal, State, and local governments, as well as from the academic and industry sectors; (3) ensure the continuity of critical data sources; (4) continue to support sensors for solar and space physics research; (5) ensure data-assimilation techniques are in place; and (6) maintain archives for ground- and space-based data, which are essential for model development and benchmarking. In this talk we explore elements in the Space Weather Action Plan that will ensure our Nation has the information we need to enhance resilience to the risk of space weather.

  2. Weather Research and Forecasting Model Wind Sensitivity Study at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Leela R.; Bauman, William H., III

    2008-01-01

    NASA prefers to land the space shuttle at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). When weather conditions violate Flight Rules at KSC, NASA will usually divert the shuttle landing to Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in Southern California. But forecasting surface winds at EAFB is a challenge for the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) forecasters due to the complex terrain that surrounds EAFB, One particular phenomena identified by SMG is that makes it difficult to forecast the EAFB surface winds is called "wind cycling". This occurs when wind speeds and directions oscillate among towers near the EAFB runway leading to a challenging deorbit bum forecast for shuttle landings. The large-scale numerical weather prediction models cannot properly resolve the wind field due to their coarse horizontal resolutions, so a properly tuned high-resolution mesoscale model is needed. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model meets this requirement. The AMU assessed the different WRF model options to determine which configuration best predicted surface wind speed and direction at EAFB, To do so, the AMU compared the WRF model performance using two hot start initializations with the Advanced Research WRF and Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical cores and compared model performance while varying the physics options.

  3. The MST radar technique: Requirements for operational weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larsen, M. F.

    1983-01-01

    There is a feeling that the accuracy of mesoscale forecasts for spatial scales of less than 1000 km and time scales of less than 12 hours can be improved significantly if resources are applied to the problem in an intensive effort over the next decade. Since the most dangerous and damaging types of weather occur at these scales, there are major advantages to be gained if such a program is successful. The interest in improving short term forecasting is evident. The technology at the present time is sufficiently developed, both in terms of new observing systems and the computing power to handle the observations, to warrant an intensive effort to improve stormscale forecasting. An assessment of the extent to which the so-called MST radar technique fulfills the requirements for an operational mesoscale observing network is reviewed and the extent to which improvements in various types of forecasting could be expected if such a network is put into operation are delineated.

  4. Improvements in medium range weather forecasting system of India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prasad, V. S.; Mohandas, Saji; Dutta, Surya Kanti; Gupta, M. Das; Iyengar, G. R.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Basu, Swati

    2014-03-01

    Medium range weather forecasts are being generated in real time using Global Data Assimilation Forecasting System (GDAFS) at NCMRWF since 1994. The system has been continuously upgraded in terms of data usage, assimilation and forecasting system. Recently this system was upgraded to a horizontal resolution of T574 (about 22 km) with 64 levels in vertical. The assimilation scheme of this upgraded system is based on the latest Grid Statistical Interpolation (GSI) scheme and it has the provision to use most of available meteorological and oceanographic satellite datasets besides conventional meteorological observations. The new system has an improved procedure for relocating tropical cyclone to its observed position with the correct intensity. All these modifications have resulted in improvement of skill of medium range forecasts by about 1 day.

  5. Space Weather Outreach: An Informal Education Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dusenbery, P. B.

    2008-12-01

    Informal science education institutions, such as science centers, play an important role in science education. They serve millions of people, including students and teachers. Within the last decade, many have tried to improve the public's understanding of science and scientific research through informal education projects. The recent success of several space weather-related missions and research programs and the launch of the International Heliophysical Year (IHY) research and education programs make this an ideal time to inform the public about the importance and relevance of space weather to our understanding of heliophysical science. Communication efforts associated with space weather both benefit and are compromised by analogies to terrestrial weather. This paper summarizes the benefits and challenges of the terrestrial weather analogy using two exhibit evaluation studies. The paper also describes three components of the Space Science Institute's Space Weather Outreach Program: Space Weather Center Website, Educator Workshops, and Small Exhibits for Libraries and Science Centers.

  6. Activity of Science and Operational Research of NICT Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishii, Mamoru; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Watari, Shinichi; Shinagawa, Hiroyuki; Tsugawa, Takuya; Kubo, Yuki

    Operational space weather forecast is for contribution to social infrastructure than for academic interests. These user need will determine the target of research, e.g., the precision level, spatial and temporal resolution and/or required lead time. We, NICT, aim two target in the present mid-term strategic plan, which are (1) forecast of ionospheric disturbance influencing to satellite positioning, and (2) forecast of disturbance in radiation belt influencing to satellite operation. We have our own observation network and develop empirical and numerical models for achieving each target. However in actual situation, it is much difficult to know the user needs quantitatively. Most of space weather phenomena makes the performance of social infrastructure poor, for example disconnect of HF communication, increase of GNSS error. Most of organizations related to these operation are negative to open these information. We have personal interviews to solve this issue. In this interview, we try to collect incident information related to space weather in each field, and to retrieve which space weather information is necessary for users. In this presentation we will introduce our research and corresponding new service, in addition to our recent scientific results.

  7. The Solar Atmosphere and Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bothmer, Volker

    -based observers. The remote-sensing observations undertaken by Yohkoh, followed by multi-wavelength movies from SoHO (Solar Heliospheric Observatory) and high resolution EUV imaging by TRACE (Transition Region and Coronal Explorer) have revealed to date that the Sun's atmosphere is highly dynamic and never at rest. Solar eruptions have been tracked into space in unprecedented detail. In combination with near-Earth satellites, their interplanetary and geo-space effects could be investigated in depth, having provided the roots for space weather forecasts. This chapter summarizes the discoveries about the origin and evolution of solar storms and their space weather effects, providing a comprehensive picture of the most important links in the Sun-Earth system. It finally provides an outlook to future research in the field of space weather.

  8. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  9. A New Paradigm Shift from Weather to Quantitative Impact Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, S. S.

    2010-12-01

    Recent advancements in science and technology, especially in numerical models and computing power, made it possible for a new paradigm shift from weather to explicit impact forecasts in hurricanes. This study will provide a review of recent progress in high-resolution coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean modeling, storm surge modeling, and sectoral impact modeling of hurricanes at landfall. Explicit impact forecasts require a new strategy for model development, evaluation and verification. High-resolution coupled model ensemble forecasts of rainfall, surface wind, waves, and storm surge can provide quantitative probabilistic forecasts and will continue to improve in the coming decade. However, verification of probabilistic forecasts has not been adequately addressed, in part because of the lack of observations for rare events like hurricanes. One of the objectives is to explore new methodologies to evaluate and verify probabilistic impact forecasts using both in situ and remote sensing data. In addition, working with industry partners and socioeconomic researchers, we will study the human behavioral basis around which optimal forecast products can be designed and upon which future risk assessment systems can be built.

  10. Space Weather: The Solar Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwenn, Rainer

    2006-12-01

    The term space weather refers to conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and that can affect human life and health. Our modern hi-tech society has become increasingly vulnerable to disturbances from outside the Earth system, in particular to those initiated by explosive events on the Sun: Flares release flashes of radiation that can heat up the terrestrial atmosphere such that satellites are slowed down and drop into lower orbits, solar energetic particles accelerated to near-relativistic energies may endanger astronauts traveling through interplanetary space, and coronal mass ejections are gigantic clouds of ionized gas ejected into interplanetary space that after a few hours or days may hit the Earth and cause geomagnetic storms. In this review, I describe the several chains of actions originating in our parent star, the Sun, that affect Earth, with particular attention to the solar phenomena and the subsequent effects in interplanetary space.

  11. Space Weathering on Airless Bodies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pieters, C. M.; Blewett, D. T.; Hiroi, T.; Marchi, S.; McFadden, L. A.; Noble, S. K.; De Sanctis, M. C.; Taylor, L. A.; Reddy, V.

    2012-12-01

    Space weathering refers to an array of processes that measurably alter the character of surfaces that are exposed to the space environment with time. Important observations and constraints come from integration of ground truth sample information and remotely sensed data for the surface. Currently, such combined sample and remote data are available for the Moon, a few near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), and Vesta. Although common processes exist on every planetary body visited, the character of surface alteration by space weathering on airless bodies is very dependent on the particular space environment and the geology and composition of the host. For the Moon, lunar samples have provided a direct link between exposure to the space environment and the development and accumulation of nanophase reduced iron (npFe^0) on soil grains [1]. The optical properties of npFe^0 are well defined experimentally [2]. The resulting effects on lunar materials include reduction of diagnostic absorption bands, prominence of a red-sloped near-infrared (NIR) continuum, and lower albedo [3]. For Eros and Hyabusa, two NEAs visited by spacecraft, similar, but less pronounced optical effects are observed [4]. The in situ Eros measurements and returned Hyabusa samples confirm both bodies are ordinary chondritic in composition despite the optical alteration of their surface [5]. The main-belt proto-planet Vesta has long been associated with HED basaltic achondrite meteorites [6]. Data from Dawn reveal an anti-correlation between mineral band strength and albedo often observed around fresh craters. However, no association is seen with NIR continuum slope implying little development of significant npFe^0 [7]. Several physical and compositional reasons that hinder npFe^0 creation on Vesta are now recognized; alteration processes are instead more linked with dispersal of opaques and regolith mixing processes [7, 8]. Space weathering and evolution of the optical properties of regolith on airless bodies

  12. Expert Systems and Weather Forecasting in the 4th and 5th Grade.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kirkwood, James J.; Gimblett, Randy H.

    1992-01-01

    Fourth and fifth graders built weather measuring instruments, entered data into a computer program that forecasted weather, and compared the resultant forecast with actual weather. As a result of their activities, students took a greater interest in weather phenomena, understood the computer program, and learned to think more logically. (LB)

  13. Expert Systems and Weather Forecasting in the 4th and 5th Grade.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kirkwood, James J.; Gimblett, Randy H.

    1992-01-01

    Fourth and fifth graders built weather measuring instruments, entered data into a computer program that forecasted weather, and compared the resultant forecast with actual weather. As a result of their activities, students took a greater interest in weather phenomena, understood the computer program, and learned to think more logically. (LB)

  14. Improving GEFS Weather Forecasts for Indian Monsoon with Statistical Downscaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agrawal, Ankita; Salvi, Kaustubh; Ghosh, Subimal

    2014-05-01

    Weather forecast has always been a challenging research problem, yet of a paramount importance as it serves the role of 'key input' in formulating modus operandi for immediate future. Short range rainfall forecasts influence a wide range of entities, right from agricultural industry to a common man. Accurate forecasts actually help in minimizing the possible damage by implementing pre-decided plan of action and hence it is necessary to gauge the quality of forecasts which might vary with the complexity of weather state and regional parameters. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is one such perfect arena to check the quality of weather forecast not only because of the level of intricacy in spatial and temporal patterns associated with it, but also the amount of damage it can cause (because of poor forecasts) to the Indian economy by affecting agriculture Industry. The present study is undertaken with the rationales of assessing, the ability of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) in predicting ISMR over central India and the skill of statistical downscaling technique in adding value to the predictions by taking them closer to evidentiary target dataset. GEFS is a global numerical weather prediction system providing the forecast results of different climate variables at a fine resolution (0.5 degree and 1 degree). GEFS shows good skills in predicting different climatic variables but fails miserably over rainfall predictions for Indian summer monsoon rainfall, which is evident from a very low to negative correlation values between predicted and observed rainfall. Towards the fulfilment of second rationale, the statistical relationship is established between the reasonably well predicted climate variables (GEFS) and observed rainfall. The GEFS predictors are treated with multicollinearity and dimensionality reduction techniques, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Statistical relationship is

  15. [50 years of the methodology of weather forecasting for medicine].

    PubMed

    Grigor'ev, K I; Povazhnaia, E L

    2014-01-01

    The materials reported in the present article illustrate the possibility of weather forecasting for the medical purposes in the historical aspect. The main characteristics of the relevant organizational and methodological approaches to meteoprophylaxis based of the standard medical forecasts are presented. The emphasis is laid on the priority of the domestic medical school in the development of the principles of diagnostics and treatment of meteosensitivity and meteotropic complications in the patients presenting with various diseases with special reference to their age-related characteristics.

  16. A Coordinated Effort to Address Space Weather and Environment Needs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Minow, Joe; Spann, James F.; Edward, David L.; Burns, Howard D.; Gallagher, Dennis; Xapos, Mike; DeGroh, Kim

    2010-01-01

    The growing need for coordination of the many aspects of space environments is directly related to our increasing dependence on space assets. An obvious result is that there is a need for a coordinated effort to organize and make accessible the increasing number of space environment products that include space environment models and observations, material testing, and forecasting tools. This paper outlines a concept to establish a NASA-level Applied Spaceflight Environments (ASE) office that will provide coordination and funding for sustained multi-program support in three technical areas; (1) natural environments characterization and modeling, (2) environmental effects on materials and systems, (3) and operational and forecasting space environments modeling. Additionally the ASE office will serve as an entry point of contact for external users who wish to take advantage of data and assets associated with space environments, including space weather.

  17. Investigating Space Weather Events Impacting the Spitzer Space Telescope

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cheng, Leo Y.; Hunt, Joseph C. Jr.; Stowers, Kennis; Lowrance, Patrick; Stewart, Andrzej; Travis, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Our understanding of the dynamical process in the space environment has increased dramatically. A relatively new field of study called "Space Weather" has emerged in the last few decades. Fundamental to the study of space weather is an understanding of how space weather events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections impact spacecraft in varying orbits and distances around the Sun. Specialized space weather satellite monitoring systems operated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) allow scientists to predict space weather events affecting critical systems on and orbiting the Earth. However, the Spitzer Space Telescope is in an orbit far outside the areas covered by those space weather monitoring systems. This poses a challenge for the Spitzer's Mission Operations Team in determining whether space weather events affect Spitzer.

  18. Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Leela R.; Hoeth, Brian; Blottman, Peter F.

    2007-01-01

    Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision at the Shuttle Landing Facility. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. Both the SMG and the MLB are currently implementing the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software into their operations. The WRF EMS software allows users to employ both dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model- the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many

  19. Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Leela R.; Hoeth, Brian; Blottman, Peter F.

    2007-01-01

    Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation at the Shuttle Landing Facility is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF5), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. This study specifically addresses the skill of different model configurations in forecasting warm season convective initiation. Numerous factors influence the development of convection over the Florida peninsula. These factors include sea breezes, river and lake breezes, the prevailing low-level flow, and convergent flow due to convex coastlines that enhance the sea breeze. The interaction of these processes produces the warm season convective patterns seen over the Florida peninsula. However, warm season convection remains one of the most poorly forecast meteorological parameters. To determine which

  20. Recent Activities on the Embrace Space Weather Regional Warning Center: the New Space Weather Data Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dal Lago, Alisson; Mendes, Odim; Batista, Inez S.; SantAnna, Nilson; Gatto, Rubens; Takahashi, Hisao; Costa, D. Joaquim; Banik Padua, Marcelo; Campos Velho, Haroldo

    2016-07-01

    On August 2007 the National Institute for Space Research started a task force to develop and operate a space weather program, which is known by the acronyms Embrace that stands for the Portuguese statement "Estudo e Monitoramento BRAasileiro de Clima Espacial" Program (Brazilian Space Weather Study and Monitoring program). The mission of the Embrace/INPE program is to monitor the Solar-Terrestrial environment, the magnetosphere, the upper atmosphere and the ground induced currents to prevent effects on technological and economic activities. The Embrace/INPE system monitors the physical parameters of the Sun-Earth environment, such as Active Regions (AR) in the Sun and solar radiation by using radio telescope, Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) information by satellite and ground-based cosmic ray monitoring, geomagnetic activity by the magnetometer network, and ionospheric disturbance by ionospheric sounders and using data collected by four GPS receiver network, geomagnetic activity by a magnetometer network, and provides a forecasting for Total Electronic Content (TEC) - 24 hours ahead - using a version of the SUPIM model which assimilates the two latter data using nudging approach. Most of these physical parameters are daily published on the Brazilian space weather program web portal, related to the entire network sensors available. Regarding outreach, it has being published a daily bulletin in Portuguese and English with the status of the space weather environment on the Sun, the Interplanetary Medium and close to the Earth. Since December 2011, all these activities are carried out at the Embrace Headquarter, a building located at the INPE's main campus. Recently, a comprehensive data bank and an interface layer are under commissioning to allow an easy and direct access to all the space weather data collected by Embrace through the Embrace web Portal. The information being released encompasses data from: (a) the Embrace Digisonde Network (Embrace DigiNet) that monitors

  1. Transitioning Models and Model Output to Space Weather Operations: Challenges and Opportunities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael; Berrios, David; Chulaki, Anna; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; MacNeice, Peter J.; Maddox, Mario; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre

    2009-01-01

    The transition of space weather models or of information derived from space weather models to space weather forecasting is the last step of the chain from model development to model deployment in forecasting operations. As such, it is an extremely important element of the quest to increase our national capability to forecast and mitigate space weather hazards. It involves establishing customer requirements, and analyses of available models, which are, in principle, capable of delivering the required product. Models will have to be verified and validated prior to a selection of the best performing model. Further considerations include operational hardware, and the availability of data streams to drive the model. The final steps include the education of forecasters, and the implementation on gateway hardware prior to operational use. This presentation will provide a discussion of opportunities for rapid progress from the viewpoint of the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.

  2. Site-specific analog weather-forecast system for northwest Himalaya, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Dan; Singh, Amreek; Ganju, Ashwagosha

    In an analog weather-forecasting procedure, recorded weather in the past analogs corresponding to the current weather situation is used to predict future weather. Consistent with the procedure, a theoretical framework is developed to predict weather at a specific site in the Pir Panjal range of the northwest Himalaya, India, using surface weather observations of the past ten winters (1991/92 to 2001/02) 3 days in advance. Weather predictions were made as snow day with quantitative snowfall category or no-snow day, for day1 through day3. As currently deployed, the procedure routinely provides a 3 day point weather forecast as guidance information to a weather and avalanche forecaster. Forecasts by analog model are evaluated by the various accuracy measures achieved for an independent dataset of three winters (2002/03 to 2004/05). The results indicate that weather forecasts by analog model are quite reliable, in that forecast accuracy corresponds closely to the relative frequencies of observed weather events. Moreover, qualitative weather (snow day or no-snow day) and quantitative categorical snowfall forecasts (quantitative snowfall category for snow day) are better than reference forecasts based on persistence and climatology for day1 predictions. Site-specific snowfall forecast guidance may play a major role in assessing avalanche danger, and accordingly formulating an avalanche forecast for a given area in advance.

  3. Space Weather Characterization of Exoplanets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garraffo, Cecilia; Drake, Jeremy J.; Cohen, Ofer; Alvarado-Gomez, Julian D.; Moschou, Sofia P.

    2017-05-01

    M dwarfs are the most feasible targets for finding planets orbiting in the habitable zone (HZ). However, their intense magnetic activity makes it very challenging for these planets to sustain an atmosphere. Using MHD, we model the coronae of planet hosting stars and the interaction of the stellar wind with the planets' atmosphere in order to asses their "habitability". These space weather conditions could result in strong atmospheric stripping and evaporation and should be taken into account for any realistic assessment of habitability.In this talk I will discuss these conditions for the exciting newly discovered temperate terrestrial planets around Proxima Centauri and TRAPPIST-1, and will highlight a new and quite extreme magnetospheric configuration that most of the TRAPPIST-1 planets are likely to experience.

  4. Predicting Space Weather: Challenges for Research and Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singer, H. J.; Onsager, T. G.; Rutledge, R.; Viereck, R. A.; Kunches, J.

    2013-12-01

    Society's growing dependence on technologies and infrastructure susceptible to the consequences of space weather has given rise to increased attention at the highest levels of government as well as inspired the need for both research and improved space weather services. In part, for these reasons, the number one goal of the recent National Research Council report on a Decadal Strategy for Solar and Space Physics is to 'Determine the origins of the Sun's activity and predict the variations in the space environment.' Prediction of conditions in our space environment is clearly a challenge for both research and operations, and we require the near-term development and validation of models that have sufficient accuracy and lead time to be useful to those impacted by space weather. In this presentation, we will provide new scientific results of space weather conditions that have challenged space weather forecasters, and identify specific areas of research that can lead to improved capabilities. In addition, we will examine examples of customer impacts and requirements as well as the challenges to the operations community to establish metrics that enable the selection and transition of models and observations that can provide the greatest economic and societal benefit.

  5. Monitoring space weather with the GOES magnetometers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singer, Howard; Matheson, Lorne; Grubb, Richard; Newman, Ann; Bouwer, David

    1996-10-01

    Magnetic field measurements have been made form geosynchronous orbit for more than 20 years. These measurements are important for monitoring 'space weather' and for providing a unique data base that can be used for improving our knowledge of the Earth's magnetosphere and solar-terrestrial interactions. This paper will focus on the variety of products and services provided by these measurements--those currently available, and those under consideration for the future. The magnetic field assist forecasters in qualitatively assessing the level of geomagnetic disturbance, to interpret changes in energetic particle measurements, to provide data to the National Geophysical Data Center, to support in real-time scientific activities such as rocket launches, and to conduct research for a better understanding of the space environment. One important use of magnetometer data in the Space Environment Center is to alert customers when shocks occur in the solar wind. These shocks have the potential for energizing particles to multi-MeV levels, causing Single Event Upsets in spacecraft electronics, and at lower energy ranges causing deep-dielectric charging that produces spacecraft anomalies. Data from the new GOES-8 and GOES-9 spacecraft will be discussed along with prospects for future products and services.

  6. American Meteorological Society Embraces Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCoy, Robert; Fisher, Genene

    2011-02-01

    Eight years ago, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) tentatively reached out to the space weather community by scheduling a day-and-a-half Space Weather Symposium (SWS) at its Annual Meeting. That symposium included briefings from operational and research agencies involved with space weather as well as a variety of talks targeting areas of interest common to meteorology and space weather. Topics included data assimilation, connections between the lower and upper atmosphere, new space weather sensors and models, and the economic and social impacts of space weather. That highly successful symposium led to a follow-on SWS every year at the AMS Annual Meeting. These meetings, combined with the release of an AMS policy statement on space weather (see http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/2008spaceweather_amsstatement.html and Fisher [2008]) and related studies in the AMS Policy Program, led the AMS Council to vote on making the space weather discipline a regular part of the society by creating a new Space Weather Committee for the Scientific and Technological Activities Commission (STAC) (http://www.ametsoc.org/stacpges/CommitteeDisplay/CommitteeDisplay.aspx?CC=SW). This is AMS's first new STAC committee in 20 years.

  7. Probabilistic regional wind power forecasts based on calibrated Numerical Weather Forecast ensembles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Späth, Stephan; von Bremen, Lueder; Junk, Constantin; Heinemann, Detlev

    2014-05-01

    With increasing shares of installed wind power in Germany, accurate forecasts of wind speed and power get increasingly important for the grid integration of Renewable Energies. Applications like grid management and trading also benefit from uncertainty information. This uncertainty information can be provided by ensemble forecasts. These forecasts often exhibit systematic errors such as biases and spread deficiencies. The errors can be reduced by statistical post-processing. We use forecast data from the regional Numerical Weather Prediction model COSMO-DE EPS as input to regional wind power forecasts. In order to enhance the power forecast, we first calibrate the wind speed forecasts against the model analysis, so some of the model's systematic errors can be removed. Wind measurements at every grid point are usually not available and as we want to conduct grid zone forecasts, the model analysis is the best target for calibration. We use forecasts from the COSMO-DE EPS, a high-resolution ensemble prediction system with 20 forecast members. The model covers the region of Germany and surroundings with a vertical resolution of 50 model levels and a horizontal resolution of 0.025 degrees (approximately 2.8 km). The forecast range is 21 hours with model output available on an hourly basis. Thus, we use it for shortest-term wind power forecasts. The COSMO-DE EPS was originally designed with a focus on forecasts of convective precipitation. The COSMO-DE EPS wind speed forecasts at hub height were post-processed by nonhomogenous Gaussian regression (NGR; Thorarinsdottir and Gneiting, 2010), a calibration method that fits a truncated normal distribution to the ensemble wind speed forecasts. As calibration target, the model analysis was used. The calibration is able to remove some deficits of the COSMO-DE EPS. In contrast to the raw ensemble members, the calibrated ensemble members do not show anymore the strong correlations with each other and the spread-skill relationship

  8. Fine Forecasts: Encouraging the Media to Include Ultraviolet Radiation Information in Summertime Weather Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richards, R.; Reeder, A. I.; Bulliard, J.-L.

    2004-01-01

    Melanoma and skin cancer are largely attributable to over-exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR). Reports of UVR levels within media weather forecasts appear to be well received by the public and have good potential to communicate the need for appropriate sun protection to a broad audience. This study describes provision of UVR messages by…

  9. Fine Forecasts: Encouraging the Media to Include Ultraviolet Radiation Information in Summertime Weather Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richards, R.; Reeder, A. I.; Bulliard, J.-L.

    2004-01-01

    Melanoma and skin cancer are largely attributable to over-exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR). Reports of UVR levels within media weather forecasts appear to be well received by the public and have good potential to communicate the need for appropriate sun protection to a broad audience. This study describes provision of UVR messages by…

  10. Impact of High Resolution SST Data on Regional Weather Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Case, Jonathon; LaFontaine, Frank; Vazquez, Jorge; Mattocks, Craig

    2010-01-01

    Past studies have shown that the use of coarse resolution SST products such as from the real-time global (RTG) SST analysis[1] or other coarse resolution once-a-day products do not properly portray the diurnal variability of fluxes of heat and moisture from the ocean that drive the formation of low level clouds and precipitation over the ocean. For example, the use of high resolution MODIS SST composite [2] to initialize the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) (ARW) [3] has been shown to improve the prediction of sensible weather parameters in coastal regions [4][5}. In an extend study, [6] compared the MODIS SST composite product to the RTG SST analysis and evaluated forecast differences for a 6 month period from March through August 2007 over the Florida coastal regions. In a comparison to buoy data, they found that that the MODIS SST composites reduced the bias and standard deviation over that of the RTG data. These improvements led to significant changes in the initial and forecasted heat fluxes and the resulting surface temperature fields, wind patterns, and cloud distributions. They also showed that the MODIS composite SST product, produced for the Terra and Aqua satellite overpass times, captured a component of the diurnal cycle in SSTs not represented in the RTG or other one-a-day SST analyses. Failure to properly incorporate these effects in the WRF initialization cycle led to temperature biases in the resulting short term forecasts. The forecast impact was limited in some situations however, due to composite product inaccuracies brought about by data latency during periods of long-term cloud cover. This paper focuses on the forecast impact of an enhanced MODIS/AMSR-E composite SST product designed to reduce inaccuracies due data latency in the MODIS only composite product.

  11. Space Weather for the DoD Warfighter: An Agency Level Update

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nobis, T. E.

    2006-12-01

    The Space Weather Operations Center (Space WOC) at the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) is the DoD Warfighter's source for operational space weather support. The Space WOC utilizes real-time space weather observations and model output to obtain the situational awareness necessary for the creation tailored space weather products to the warfighter. AFWA Personnel located within space weather programs and technology branches are charged with obtaining and infusing operations with the latest in space weather analysis and forecast capability. This presentation will present an overview of current and near term capabilities, with particular emphasis on the integration of the Global Assimilative Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) model and the Hakamata-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) solar wind model.

  12. New Space Weather Systems Under Development and Their Contribution to Space Weather Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobiska, W.; Bouwer, D.; Schunk, R.; Garrett, H.; Mertens, C.; Bowman, B.

    2008-12-01

    There have been notable successes during the past decade in the development of operational space environment systems. Examples include the Magnetospheric Specification Model (MSM) of the Earth's magnetosphere, 2000; SOLAR2000 (S2K) solar spectral irradiances, 2001; High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) neutral atmosphere densities, 2004; Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) ionosphere specification, 2006; Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) solar wind parameters, 2007; Communication Alert and Prediction System (CAPS) ionosphere, high frequency radio, and scintillation S4 index prediction, 2008; and GEO Alert and Prediction System (GAPS) geosynchronous environment satellite charging specification and forecast, 2008. Operational systems that are in active operational implementation include the Jacchia-Bowman 2006/2008 (JB2006/2008) neutral atmosphere, 2009, and the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) aviation radiation model using the Radiation Alert and Prediction System (RAPS), 2010. U.S. national agency and commercial assets will soon reach a state where specification and prediction will become ubiquitous and where coordinated management of the space environment and space weather will become a necessity. We describe the status of the CAPS, GAPS, RAPS, and JB2008 operational development. We additionally discuss the conditions that are laying the groundwork for space weather management and estimate the unfilled needs as we move beyond specification and prediction efforts.

  13. A case study of weather forecast methodology defined by students

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massetti, L.; Macario, M.; Bini, F.; Ugolini, F.; Marandola, D.; Lanini, M.; Raschi, A.

    2009-09-01

    One of the main priority for our future society is to increase the interest of young people in science and technology. The cooperation between researchers, who produce scientific knowledge, and teachers, who disseminate it among students, is an effective method to reach this goal. In fact Science dissemination at school, overseen by researchers, can be of mutual benefit because scientists can improve their communication skills and convey their enthusiasm for scientific research. The Institute of Biometeorology has been working on science dissemination for many years in many different topics like meteorology, carbon dioxide fluxes and greenhouse effect and phenology, relying mainly on practical experiences made by the students under the supervision of researchers. This presentation reports of some experimental activities on Meteorology done in Liceo Scientifico of Prato Italy. The aim of the activity was to define a methodology of weather forecasting based on clouds observation. At first the researchers present and discuss with the students the meaning and graphic representation of some meteorological parameters and the methodology to identify clouds type and characteristic. An automatic weather station was set up on the roof of the school and students practiced how to download data from the weather station. At the same time they carried on daily observation of presence and types of clouds in the sky. Then they analyzed meteorological data and particularly atmospheric pressure and air humidity and defined their own methodology to do forecast. Finally they validated their results by comparing them with the meteorological maps of the regional weather service.

  14. Space Radiation Protection, Space Weather, and Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zapp, Neal; Fry, Dan; Lee, Kerry

    2010-01-01

    Management of crew exposure to radiation is a major concern for manned spaceflight and will be even more important for the modern concept of longer-duration exploration. The inherent protection afforded to astronauts by the magnetic field of the Earth in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) makes operations on the space shuttle or space station very different from operations during a deep space exploration mission. In order to experience significant radiation-derived Loss of Mission (LOM) or Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for LEO operations, one is almost driven to dictate extreme duration or to dictate an extreme sequence of solar activity. Outside of the geo-magnetosphere, however, this scenario changes dramatically. Exposures to the same event on the ISS and on the surface of the Moon may differ by multiple orders of magnitude. This change in magnitude, coupled with the logistical constraints present in implementing any practical operational mitigation make situational awareness with regard to space weather a limiting factor for our ability to conduct exploration operations. With these differences in risk to crew, vehicle and mission in mind, we present the status of the efforts currently underway as the required development to enable exploration operations. The changes in the operating environment as crewed operations begin to stretch away from the Earth are changing the way we think about the lines between research and operations . The real, practical work to enable a permanent human presence away from Earth has already begun

  15. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  16. Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III; Hood, Doris

    2009-01-01

    Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and forecasters from the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violating the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) (Krider et al. 2006; Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR), NASA/JSC 2004)). As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool that creates an anvil threat corridor graphic that can be overlaid on satellite imagery using the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS, Short and Wheeler, 2002). The tool helps forecasters estimate the locations of thunderstorm anvils at one, two, and three hours into the future. It has been used extensively in launch and landing operations by both the 45 WS and SMG. The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) is now used along with MIDDS for weather analysis and display at SMG. In Phase I of this task, SMG tasked the AMU to transition the tool from MIDDS to AWIPS (Barrett et aI., 2007). For Phase II, SMG requested the AMU make the Anvil Forecast Tool in AWIPS more configurable by creating the capability to read model gridded data from user-defined model files instead of hard-coded files. An NWS local AWIPS application called AGRID was used to accomplish this. In addition, SMG needed to be able to define the pressure levels for the model data, instead of hard-coding the bottom level as 300 mb and the top level as 150 mb. This paper describes the initial development of the Anvil Forecast Tool for MIDDS, followed by the migration of the tool to AWIPS in Phase I. It then gives a detailed presentation of the Phase II improvements to the AWIPS tool.

  17. Space Weather Modeling at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse M.

    2005-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the rapid prototyping centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires dose collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as distributed computing facilities provided by the US Air Force. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide updates on CCMC status, on current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and on the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.

  18. Space Weather Modeling Services at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael

    2006-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the Rapid Prototyping Centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires close collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide a description of the current CCMC status, discuss current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and describe the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.

  19. Space Weather Modeling at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse M.

    2005-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the rapid prototyping centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires dose collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as distributed computing facilities provided by the US Air Force. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide updates on CCMC status, on current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and on the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.

  20. Space Weather Modeling Services at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hesse, Michael

    2006-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the Rapid Prototyping Centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires close collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide a description of the current CCMC status, discuss current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and describe the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.

  1. High-latitude space weather monitoring in Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulich, Th.

    2009-04-01

    Today, space weather is of important concern in many respects. Space weather phenomena are subject of extensive scientific research programmes and the consequences of space weather events are of great operational concern for a number of technologies including satellites, humans in space, and global positioning and communications. Due to the Earth's magnetic field, the high latitudes are most strongly affected by space weather phenomena. Naturally, monitoring and understanding of the high-latitude space environment is important for forecasting and modelling operational conditions. The Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory (SGO) was established as a magnetic observatory in 1913. With the sole exception of a year at the end of WWII, the record of geomagnetic field variations is continuous. Since the IGY in 1957, many other routine measurements have been added to the observatory's operations and today SGO is a highly versatile observatory. Here we will present examples of high-latitude space weather data from a selection of instruments including the Sodankylä ionosonde, the Finnish Riometer Chain, and the Tomography (GNSS) receiver chain. We invite collaboration and use of our data products. We will further outline the current EU Framework VII "Access to Research Infrastructures" project of SGO "LAPBIAT2."

  2. Development of a High Resolution Weather Forecast Model for Mesoamerica Using the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molthan, Andrew L.; Case, Jonathan L.; Venner, Jason; Moreno-Madrinan, Max. J.; Delgado, Francisco

    2012-01-01

    Over the past two years, scientists in the Earth Science Office at NASA fs Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have explored opportunities to apply cloud computing concepts to support near real ]time weather forecast modeling via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Collaborators at NASA fs Short ]term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and the SERVIR project at Marshall Space Flight Center have established a framework that provides high resolution, daily weather forecasts over Mesoamerica through use of the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Platform at Ames Research Center. Supported by experts at Ames, staff at SPoRT and SERVIR have established daily forecasts complete with web graphics and a user interface that allows SERVIR partners access to high resolution depictions of weather in the next 48 hours, useful for monitoring and mitigating meteorological hazards such as thunderstorms, heavy precipitation, and tropical weather that can lead to other disasters such as flooding and landslides. This presentation will describe the framework for establishing and providing WRF forecasts, example applications of output provided via the SERVIR web portal, and early results of forecast model verification against available surface ] and satellite ]based observations.

  3. Understanding Space Weather: The Sun as a Variable Star

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strong, Keith; Saba, Julia; Kucera, Therese

    2012-01-01

    The Sun is a complex system of systems and until recently, less than half of its surface was observable at any given time and then only from afar. New observational techniques and modeling capabilities are giving us a fresh perspective of the solar interior and how our Sun works as a variable star. This revolution in solar observations and modeling provides us with the exciting prospect of being able to use a vastly increased stream of solar data taken simultaneously from several different vantage points to produce more reliable and prompt space weather forecasts. Solar variations that cause identifiable space weather effects do not happen only on solar-cycle timescales from decades to centuries; there are also many shorter-term events that have their own unique space weather effects and a different set of challenges to understand and predict, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind variations.

  4. Understanding Space Weather: The Sun as a Variable Star

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strong, Keith; Saba, Julia; Kucera, Therese

    2011-01-01

    The Sun is a complex system of systems and until recently, less than half of its surface was observable at any given time and then only from afar. New observational techniques and modeling capabilities are giving us a fresh perspective of the solar interior and how our Sun works as a variable star. This revolution in solar observations and modeling provides us with the exciting prospect of being able to use a vastly increased stream of solar data taken simultaneously from several different vantage points to produce more reliable and prompt space weather forecasts. Solar variations that cause identifiable space weather effects do not happen only on solar-cycle timescales from decades to centuries; there are also many shorter-term events that have their own unique space weather effects and a different set of challenges to understand and predict, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind variations

  5. Recent results from the GISS model of the global atmosphere. [circulation simulation for weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Somerville, R. C. J.

    1975-01-01

    Large numerical atmospheric circulation models are in increasingly widespread use both for operational weather forecasting and for meteorological research. The results presented here are from a model developed at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and described in detail by Somerville et al. (1974). This model is representative of a class of models, recently surveyed by the Global Atmospheric Research Program (1974), designed to simulate the time-dependent, three-dimensional, large-scale dynamics of the earth's atmosphere.

  6. Recent results from the GISS model of the global atmosphere. [circulation simulation for weather forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Somerville, R. C. J.

    1975-01-01

    Large numerical atmospheric circulation models are in increasingly widespread use both for operational weather forecasting and for meteorological research. The results presented here are from a model developed at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and described in detail by Somerville et al. (1974). This model is representative of a class of models, recently surveyed by the Global Atmospheric Research Program (1974), designed to simulate the time-dependent, three-dimensional, large-scale dynamics of the earth's atmosphere.

  7. Improving Weather Forecasts Through Reduced Precision Data Assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hatfield, Samuel; Düben, Peter; Palmer, Tim

    2017-04-01

    We present a new approach for improving the efficiency of data assimilation, by trading numerical precision for computational speed. Future supercomputers will allow a greater choice of precision, so that models can use a level of precision that is commensurate with the model uncertainty. Previous studies have already indicated that the quality of climate and weather forecasts is not significantly degraded when using a precision less than double precision [1,2], but so far these studies have not considered data assimilation. Data assimilation is inherently uncertain due to the use of relatively long assimilation windows, noisy observations and imperfect models. Thus, the larger rounding errors incurred from reducing precision may be within the tolerance of the system. Lower precision arithmetic is cheaper, and so by reducing precision in ensemble data assimilation, we can redistribute computational resources towards, for example, a larger ensemble size. Because larger ensembles provide a better estimate of the underlying distribution and are less reliant on covariance inflation and localisation, lowering precision could actually allow us to improve the accuracy of weather forecasts. We will present results on how lowering numerical precision affects the performance of an ensemble data assimilation system, consisting of the Lorenz '96 toy atmospheric model and the ensemble square root filter. We run the system at half precision (using an emulation tool), and compare the results with simulations at single and double precision. We estimate that half precision assimilation with a larger ensemble can reduce assimilation error by 30%, with respect to double precision assimilation with a smaller ensemble, for no extra computational cost. This results in around half a day extra of skillful weather forecasts, if the error-doubling characteristics of the Lorenz '96 model are mapped to those of the real atmosphere. Additionally, we investigate the sensitivity of these results

  8. Improving High-resolution Weather Forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with Upgraded Kain-Fritsch Cumulus Scheme

    EPA Science Inventory

    High-resolution weather forecasting is affected by many aspects, i.e. model initial conditions, subgrid-scale cumulus convection and cloud microphysics schemes. Recent 12km grid studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model have identified the importance of inco...

  9. Improving High-resolution Weather Forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with Upgraded Kain-Fritsch Cumulus Scheme

    EPA Science Inventory

    High-resolution weather forecasting is affected by many aspects, i.e. model initial conditions, subgrid-scale cumulus convection and cloud microphysics schemes. Recent 12km grid studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model have identified the importance of inco...

  10. Interactive Visual Contextualization of Space Weather Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Törnros, M.; Ynnerman, A.; Emmart, C.; Berrios, D.; Harberts, R.

    2012-12-01

    Linköping University, the American Museum of Natural History (AMNH), and the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center are collaborating on a new open source visualization software for astrovisualization. The CCMC is providing real-time and historical space weather data from the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA), including timely modeled coronal mass ejection events simulated by the Space Weather Research Center at NASA GSFC. Linköping University is developing a new modular visualization tool with multi-channel capabilities to support planetarium exhibits, displaying the real-time space weather data contextualized using fieldlines, volumetric visualization techniques, and planetary information. This collaboration aims to engage the public about space weather and real-time events at the AMNH. We present an overview of this collaboration and demo some of the capabilities.

  11. Concept for an International Standard related to Space Weather Effects on Space Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobiska, W. Kent; Tomky, Alyssa

    There is great interest in developing an international standard related to space weather in order to specify the tools and parameters needed for space systems operations. In particular, a standard is important for satellite operators who may not be familiar with space weather. In addition, there are others who participate in space systems operations that would also benefit from such a document. For example, the developers of software systems that provide LEO satellite orbit determination, radio communication availability for scintillation events (GEO-to-ground L and UHF bands), GPS uncertainties, and the radiation environment from ground-to-space for commercial space tourism. These groups require recent historical data, current epoch specification, and forecast of space weather events into their automated or manual systems. Other examples are national government agencies that rely on space weather data provided by their organizations such as those represented in the International Space Environment Service (ISES) group of 14 national agencies. Designers, manufacturers, and launchers of space systems require real-time, operational space weather parameters that can be measured, monitored, or built into automated systems. Thus, a broad scope for the document will provide a useful international standard product to a variety of engineering and science domains. The structure of the document should contain a well-defined scope, consensus space weather terms and definitions, and internationally accepted descriptions of the main elements of space weather, its sources, and its effects upon space systems. Appendices will be useful for describing expanded material such as guidelines on how to use the standard, how to obtain specific space weather parameters, and short but detailed descriptions such as when best to use some parameters and not others; appendices provide a path for easily updating the standard since the domain of space weather is rapidly changing with new advances

  12. Calls Forecast for the Moscow Ambulance Service. The Impact of Weather Forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gordin, Vladimir; Bykov, Philipp

    2015-04-01

    We use the known statistics of the calls for the current and previous days to predict them for tomorrow and for the following days. We assume that this algorithm will work operatively, will cyclically update the available information and will move the horizon of the forecast. Sure, the accuracy of such forecasts depends on their lead time, and from a choice of some group of diagnoses. For comparison we used the error of the inertial forecast (tomorrow there will be the same number of calls as today). Our technology has demonstrated accuracy that is approximately two times better compared to the inertial forecast. We obtained the following result: the number of calls depends on the actual weather in the city as well as on its rate of change. We were interested in the accuracy of the forecast for 12-hour sum of the calls in real situations. We evaluate the impact of the meteorological errors [1] on the forecast errors of the number of Ambulance calls. The weather and the Ambulance calls number both have seasonal tendencies. Therefore, if we have medical information from one city only, we should separate the impacts of such predictors as "annual variations in the number of calls" and "weather". We need to consider the seasonal tendencies (associated, e. g. with the seasonal migration of the population) and the impact of the air temperature simultaneously, rather than sequentially. We forecasted separately the number of calls with diagnoses of cardiovascular group, where it was demonstrated the advantage of the forecasting method, when we use the maximum daily air temperature as a predictor. We have a chance to evaluate statistically the influence of meteorological factors on the dynamics of medical problems. In some cases it may be useful for understanding of the physiology of disease and possible treatment options. We can assimilate some personal archives of medical parameters for the individuals with concrete diseases and the relative meteorological archive. As a

  13. Engaging Earth- and Environmental-Science Undergraduates through Weather Discussions and an eLearning Weather Forecasting Contest

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schultz, David M.; Anderson, Stuart; Seo-Zindy, Ryo

    2013-01-01

    For students who major in meteorology, engaging in weather forecasting can motivate learning, develop critical-thinking skills, improve their written communication, and yield better forecasts. Whether such advances apply to students who are not meteorology majors has been less demonstrated. To test this idea, a weather discussion and an eLearning…

  14. Using fire-weather forecasts and local weather observations in predicting burning index for individual fire-danger stations.

    Treesearch

    Owen P. Cramer

    1958-01-01

    Any agency engaged in forest-fire control needs accurate weather forecasts and systematic procedures for making the best use of predicted and reported weather information. This study explores the practicability of using several tabular and graphical aids for converting area forecasts and local observations of relative humidity and wind speed into predicted values for...

  15. Engaging Earth- and Environmental-Science Undergraduates through Weather Discussions and an eLearning Weather Forecasting Contest

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schultz, David M.; Anderson, Stuart; Seo-Zindy, Ryo

    2013-01-01

    For students who major in meteorology, engaging in weather forecasting can motivate learning, develop critical-thinking skills, improve their written communication, and yield better forecasts. Whether such advances apply to students who are not meteorology majors has been less demonstrated. To test this idea, a weather discussion and an eLearning…

  16. IPS Space Weather Research: Korea-Japan-UCSD

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-04-27

    measure the selected radio sources around the sky at 327 MHz which is same frequency for use in Japan during last 30 years to derive solar wind velocities...Environment Laboratory (STELab), Japan . The new KSWC system is dedicated to IPS observation and observed data can be used for UCSD model input in...version of the UCSD 3-D IPS model at KSWC for space weather forecasting purpose based on the observed data primarily from Japan and Korea

  17. On the Relations of Cosmic Rays to Space Weather Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kudela, K.; Bobik, P.

    2010-04-01

    The recent progress in using cosmic ray measurements for space weather research is shortly summarized based mainly on selected papers published during past three years. Two problems are touched, namely (i) potential possibilities of the forecast of radiation hazard storms, and (ii) possibilities and limitations of using neutron monitors, muon telescopes and other experimental ground based devices for alerts before the geoeffective events, mainly geomagnetic storms.

  18. Solar thematic maps for space weather operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rigler, E. Joshua; Hill, Steven M.; Reinard, Alysha A.; Steenburgh, Robert A.

    2012-08-01

    Thematic maps are arrays of labels, or "themes," associated with discrete locations in space and time. Borrowing heavily from the terrestrial remote sensing discipline, a numerical technique based on Bayes' theorem captures operational expertise in the form of trained theme statistics, then uses this to automatically assign labels to solar image pixels. Ultimately, regular thematic maps of the solar corona will be generated from high-cadence, high-resolution SUVI images, the solar ultraviolet imager slated to fly on NOAA's next-generation GOES-R series of satellites starting ˜2016. These thematic maps will not only provide quicker, more consistent synoptic views of the sun for space weather forecasters, but digital thematic pixel masks (e.g., coronal hole, active region, flare, etc.), necessary for a new generation of operational solar data products, will be generated. This paper presents the mathematical underpinnings of our thematic mapper, as well as some practical algorithmic considerations. Then, using images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Advanced Imaging Array (AIA) as test data, it presents results from validation experiments designed to ascertain the robustness of the technique with respect to differing expert opinions and changing solar conditions.

  19. Solar thematic maps for space weather operations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rigler, E. Joshua; Hill, Steven M.; Reinard, Alysha A.; Steenburgh, Robert A.

    2012-01-01

    Thematic maps are arrays of labels, or "themes", associated with discrete locations in space and time. Borrowing heavily from the terrestrial remote sensing discipline, a numerical technique based on Bayes' theorem captures operational expertise in the form of trained theme statistics, then uses this to automatically assign labels to solar image pixels. Ultimately, regular thematic maps of the solar corona will be generated from high-cadence, high-resolution SUVI images, the solar ultraviolet imager slated to fly on NOAA's next-generation GOES-R series of satellites starting ~2016. These thematic maps will not only provide quicker, more consistent synoptic views of the sun for space weather forecasters, but digital thematic pixel masks (e.g., coronal hole, active region, flare, etc.), necessary for a new generation of operational solar data products, will be generated. This paper presents the mathematical underpinnings of our thematic mapper, as well as some practical algorithmic considerations. Then, using images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Advanced Imaging Array (AIA) as test data, it presents results from validation experiments designed to ascertain the robustness of the technique with respect to differing expert opinions and changing solar conditions.

  20. Toward Application of Lightning Observations to Weather Forecasts and Warnings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macgorman, D. R.

    2002-12-01

    Once lightning mapping systems became fast enough to locate lightning in real or near-real time, it became possible to consider applications of lightning data to weather operations. The first system to be used routinely in such a way was the LLP direction-finder network deployed around 1980 by the Bureau of Land Management to help detect range and forest fires started by cloud-to-ground lightning. In 1987, a federal interagency group collaborated with the State University of New York at Albany to put together a trial National Lightning Detection Network for a three-year evaluation of possible applications to weather operations. During this trial, the National Weather Service determined that the lightning ground-strike data are useful for detecting the presence, configuration, and evolution of storms and storm systems, and so subsequently procured lightning strike mapping data for federal use that has continued to the present. Research since then has suggested that detection of positive cloud-to-ground lightning may also be useful, when combined with radar data, to help identify some severe storms, though the conditions under which this is possible are still being investigated. Furthermore, cloud-to-ground flash data can be assimilated into forecast models to improve the initial conditions, and hence the forecasts, of the models. More recently technology has advanced to the point that mapping all types of lightning is feasible. Because typically more than 70% of the lightning flashes produced by a storm do not strike ground, such technologies, at a minimum, would increase sampling rates to identify thunderstorms more quickly and reliably. However, different types of lightning also provide different information about storms. Cloud-to-ground lightning tends to indicate the formation and descent of precipitation, while cloud flash rates appear to be associated more closely with updraft and graupel evolution. Research is underway to determine and quantify these

  1. Space Radiation Protection, Space Weather, and Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zapp, Neal; Rutledge, R.; Semones, E. J.; Johnson, A. S.; Guetersloh, S.; Fry, D.; Stoffle, N.; Lee, K.

    2008-01-01

    Management of crew exposure to radiation is a major concern for manned spaceflight -- and will be even more important for the modern concept of longer-duration exploration. The inherent protection afforded to astronauts by the magnetic field of the Earth in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) makes operations on the space shuttle or space station very different from operations during an exploration mission. In order to experience significant radiation-derived Loss of Mission (LOM) or Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for LEO operations, one is almost driven to dictate extreme duration or to dictate an extreme sequence of solar activity. Outside of the geo-magnetosphere, however, this scenario changes dramatically. Exposures to the same event on the ISS and on the surface of the Moon may differ by multiple orders of magnitude. This change in magnitude, coupled with the logistical constraints present in implementing any practical operational mitigation make situational awareness with regard to space weather a limiting factor for our ability to conduct exploration operations. With these differences in risk to crew, vehicle and mission in mind, we present the status of the efforts currently underway as the required development to enable exploration operations. The changes in the operating environment as crewed operations begin to stretch away from the Earth are changing the way we think about the lines between "research" and "operations". The real, practical work to enable a permanent human presence away from Earth has already begun.

  2. Forecast skill of a high-resolution real-time mesoscale model designed for weather support of operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, Gregory E.; Zack, John W.; Manobianco, John

    1994-01-01

    NASA funded Mesoscale Environmental Simulations and Operations (MESO), Inc. to develop a version of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS). The model has been modified specifically for short-range forecasting in the vicinity of KSC/CCAS. To accomplish this, the model domain has been limited to increase the number of horizontal grid points (and therefore grid resolution) and the model' s treatment of precipitation, radiation, and surface hydrology physics has been enhanced to predict convection forced by local variations in surface heat, moisture fluxes, and cloud shading. The objective of this paper is to (1) provide an overview of MASS including the real-time initialization and configuration for running the data pre-processor and model, and (2) to summarize the preliminary evaluation of the model's forecasts of temperature, moisture, and wind at selected rawinsonde station locations during February 1994 and July 1994. MASS is a hydrostatic, three-dimensional modeling system which includes schemes to represent planetary boundary layer processes, surface energy and moisture budgets, free atmospheric long and short wave radiation, cloud microphysics, and sub-grid scale moist convection.

  3. The International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davila, Joseph M.

    2010-01-01

    The International Heliophysical Year (IHY) provided a successful model for the deployment of arrays of small scientific instruments in new and scientifically interesting geographic locations, and outreach. The new International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is designed to build on this momentum to promote the observation, understanding, and prediction space weather phenomena, and to communicate the scientific results to the public.

  4. Fifth Space Weather Enterprise Forum Reaches New Heights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williamson, Samuel P.; Babcock, Michael R.; Bonadonna, Michael F.

    2011-09-01

    As the world's commercial infrastructure grows more dependent on sensitive electronics and space-based technologies, the global economy is becoming increasingly vulnerable to solar storms. Experts from the federal government, academia, and the private sector met to discuss the societal effects of major solar storms and other space weather at the fifth annual Space Weather Enterprise Forum (SWEF), held on 21 June 2011 at the National Press Club in Washington, D. C. More than 200 members of the space weather community attended this year's SWEF, which focused on the consequences of severe space weather for national security, critical infrastructure, and human safety. Participants also addressed the question of how to prepare for and mitigate those consequences as the current solar cycle approaches and reaches its peak, expected in 2013. This year's forum included details of plans for a "Unified National Space Weather Capability," a new interagency initiative which will be implemented over the next two years, designed to improve forecasting, warning, and other services ahead of the coming solar maximum.

  5. Space-Time Urban Air Pollution Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russo, A.; Trigo, R. M.; Soares, A.

    2012-04-01

    Air pollution, like other natural phenomena, may be considered a space-time process. However, the simultaneous integration of time and space is not an easy task to perform, due to the existence of different uncertainties levels and data characteristics. In this work we propose a hybrid method that combines geostatistical and neural models to analyze PM10 time series recorded in the urban area of Lisbon (Portugal) for the 2002-2006 period and to produce forecasts. Geostatistical models have been widely used to characterize air pollution in urban areas, where the pollutant sources are considered diffuse, and also to industrial areas with localized emission sources. It should be stressed however that most geostatistical models correspond basically to an interpolation methodology (estimation, simulation) of a set of variables in a spatial or space-time domain. The temporal prediction of a pollutant usually requires knowledge of the main trends and complex patterns of physical dispersion phenomenon. To deal with low resolution problems and to enhance reliability of predictions, an approach based on neural network short term predictions in the monitoring stations which behave as a local conditioner to a fine grid stochastic simulation model is presented here. After the pollutant concentration is predicted for a given time period at the monitoring stations, we can use the local conditional distributions of observed values, given the predicted value for that period, to perform the spatial simulations for the entire area and consequently evaluate the spatial uncertainty of pollutant concentration. To attain this objective, we propose the use of direct sequential simulations with local distributions. With this approach one succeed to predict the space-time distribution of pollutant concentration that accounts for the time prediction uncertainty (reflecting the neural networks efficiency at each local monitoring station) and the spatial uncertainty as revealed by the spatial

  6. Possible ways of space weather prediction improvement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khabarova, O. V.

    2012-04-01

    Most popular short-term space weather prognoses are based on CME-like solar wind conditions' analysis. Short-term forecasts of severe magnetic storms using such a prognostic scheme are rather accurate, but sometimes are not actual due to too short alert time. Moreover, the number of severe storms is 10 times less than the weak magnetic storms' number. At the same time, the quality of weak and moderate magnetic storms forecast is poor for both short-term and medium-term prognoses, especially at a solar minimum. It is found that physical origin of weak and moderate magnetic storms is much closer to substorms' than to severe magnetic storms' nature; that is why CME-condition- based prognoses fail very often for mild geomagnetic storms [1]. Case studies and statistical analysis show that a mechanism of weak and moderate magnetic storms' development could be explained by excitation and compression of the magnetosphere by the SW density sharp increase in a combination with the southward-directed IMF. Sometimes there is a time delay up to several hours between the geoeffective density increase and the negative Bz IMF component's observation [1, 2]. The role of the solar wind velocity in the stimulation of the reconnection in the magnetotail is found out to be negligible for weak or moderate magnetic storms and essential for intensive and severe geomagnetic storms. So, a consideration of high-speed SW streams and the southward IMF direction as a main cause of a geomagnetic storm is correct for storms with Dst<-100nT only. Additionally, there are evidences that a weak increase of the SW density, as well as increased SW turbulence in the ULF diapason one-three days before a geomagnetic storm onset could be considered as a prognostic factor [1, 2]. Therefore, more deep investigation of weak (but not severe) magnetic storms' origin is a main key of future success of space weather prediction. 1. Khabarova O.V., Current Problems of Magnetic Storm Prediction and Possible Ways of

  7. Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Leela R.; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian

    2010-01-01

    Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) at Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. The original LDIS was developed by NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU; Bauman et ai, 2004) in 1998 (Manobianco and Case 1998) and has undergone subsequent improvements. Each has benefited from three-dimensional (3-D) analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features

  8. Space weather in the EU's FP7 Space Theme. Preface to the special issue on "EU-FP7 funded space weather projects"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiarini, Paola

    2013-11-01

    Technological infrastructures in space and on ground provide services on which modern society and economies rely. Space weather related research is funded under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (FP7) of the European Union in response to the need of protecting such critical infrastructures from the damage which could be caused by extreme space weather events. The calls for proposals published under the topic "Security of space assets from space weather events" of the FP7 Space Theme aimed to improve forecasts and predictions of disruptive space weather events as well as identify best practices to limit the impacts on space- and ground-based infrastructures and their data provision. Space weather related work was also funded under the topic "Exploitation of space science and exploration data", which aims to add value to space missions and Earth-based observations by contributing to the effective scientific exploitation of collected data. Since 2007 a total of 20 collaborative projects have been funded, covering a variety of physical phenomena associated with space weather, from ionospheric disturbances and scintillation, to geomagnetically induced currents at Earth's surface, to coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particles. This article provides an overview of the funded projects, touching upon some results and referring to specific websites for a more exhaustive description of the projects' outcomes.

  9. ESA Soon to Unveil Space Weather Services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Mohi

    2010-10-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) will soon begin services associated with its new Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Preparatory Programme, authorized by ESA in November 2008. With a management team based at ESA's European Space Astronomy Centre (ESAC), in Spain, the program will enable scientists, government officials, and industry representatives to better utilize and access space technology by providing real-time information on the near-Earth space environment and its hazards. These hazards involve possible collisions between orbiting objects in space, potential meteor and asteroid strikes, and harmful space weather. This latter aspect, covered under SSA's Space Weather (SWE) element, will begin with the establishment of initial services in October 2010.

  10. Assessments of Total Lightning Data Utility in Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buechler, Dennis E.; Goodman, Steve; LaCasse, Katherine; Blakeslee, Richard; Darden, Chris

    2005-01-01

    National Weather Service forecasters in Huntsville, Alabama have had access to total lightning data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) since 2003. Forecasters can monitor real-time total lightning observations on their AWIPS (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) workstations. The lightning data is used to supplement other observations such as radar and satellite data. The lightning data is updated every 2 min, providing more timely evidence of storm growth or decay than is available from 5 min radar scans. Total lightning observations have been used to positively impact warning decisions in a number of instances. A number of approaches are being pursued to assess the usefulness of total lightning measurements to the operational forecasting community in the warning decision process. These approaches, which include both qualitative and quantitative assessment methods, will be discussed. submitted to the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data to be held in San Diego, CA January 9-13,2005. This will be a presentation and an extended abstract will be published on a CD available from the AMS.

  11. Assessments of Total Lightning Data Utility in Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buechler, Dennis E.; Goodman, Steve; LaCasse, Katherine; Blakeslee, Richard; Darden, Chris

    2005-01-01

    National Weather Service forecasters in Huntsville, Alabama have had access to total lightning data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) since 2003. Forecasters can monitor real-time total lightning observations on their AWIPS (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) workstations. The lightning data is used to supplement other observations such as radar and satellite data. The lightning data is updated every 2 min, providing more timely evidence of storm growth or decay than is available from 5 min radar scans. Total lightning observations have been used to positively impact warning decisions in a number of instances. A number of approaches are being pursued to assess the usefulness of total lightning measurements to the operational forecasting community in the warning decision process. These approaches, which include both qualitative and quantitative assessment methods, will be discussed. submitted to the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data to be held in San Diego, CA January 9-13,2005. This will be a presentation and an extended abstract will be published on a CD available from the AMS.

  12. Competitive Learning Experiences: The Role of Weather Forecasting Contests in Geography Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harrington, John A., Jr.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Employs weather forecasting contests as a strategy for teaching about the weather, climate, and atmosphere. States that competency in understanding concepts and the ability to develop logical constructs about atmospheric processes are enhanced. Includes suggestions for teaching weather forecasting at all grade levels, and describes a contest at…

  13. Competitive Learning Experiences: The Role of Weather Forecasting Contests in Geography Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harrington, John A., Jr.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Employs weather forecasting contests as a strategy for teaching about the weather, climate, and atmosphere. States that competency in understanding concepts and the ability to develop logical constructs about atmospheric processes are enhanced. Includes suggestions for teaching weather forecasting at all grade levels, and describes a contest at…

  14. Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Leela R.; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian

    2010-01-01

    /Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS), as well as the Kennedy Space Center ICape Canaveral Air Force Station wind tower network. The scripts provide NWS MLB and SMG with several options for setting a desirable runtime configuration of the LDIS to account for adjustments in grid spacing, domain location, choice of observational data sources, and selection of background model fields, among others. The utility of an improved LDIS will be demonstrated through postanalysis warm and cool season case studies that compare high-resolution model output with and without the ADAS analyses. Operationally, these upgrades will result in more accurate depictions of the current local environment to help with short-range weather forecasting applications, while also offering an improved initialization for local versions of the Weather Research and Forecasting model.

  15. Impact of various observing systems on weather analysis and forecast over the Indian region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Randhir; Ojha, Satya P.; Kishtawal, C. M.; Pal, P. K.

    2014-09-01

    To investigate the potential impact of various types of data on weather forecast over the Indian region, a set of data-denial experiments spanning the entire month of July 2012 is executed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system. The experiments are designed to allow the assessment of mass versus wind observations and terrestrial versus space-based instruments, to evaluate the relative importance of the classes of conventional instrument such as radiosonde, and finally to investigate the role of individual spaceborne instruments. The moist total energy norm is used for validation and forecast skill assessment. The results show that the contribution of wind observations toward error reduction is larger than mass observations in the short range (48 h) forecast. Terrestrial-based observations generally contribute more than space-based observations except for the moisture fields, where the role of the space-based instruments becomes more prevalent. Only about 50% of individual instruments are found to be beneficial in this experiment configuration, with the most important role played by radiosondes. Thereafter, Meteosat Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) (only for short range forecast) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) are second and third, followed by surface observations, Sounder for Probing Vertical Profiles of Humidity (SAPHIR) radiances and pilot observations. Results of the additional experiments of comparative performance of SSM/I total precipitable water (TPW), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), and SAPHIR radiances indicate that SSM/I is the most important instrument followed by SAPHIR and MHS for improving the quality of the forecast over the Indian region. Further, the impact of single SAPHIR instrument (onboard Megha-Tropiques) is significantly larger compared to three MHS instruments (onboard NOAA-18/19 and MetOp-A).

  16. Resource Letter SW1: Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Daniel N.; Lanzerotti, Louis J.

    2016-03-01

    This Resource Letter describes the phenomena and effects on technological systems that are known collectively as space weather. A brief history of the topic is provided, and the scientific understandings of drivers for such phenomena are discussed. The impacts of space disturbances are summarized, and the strategies for dealing with space weather threats are examined. The Resource Letter concludes with description of approaches that have been proposed to deal with threats to our increasingly technological society.

  17. Space Weather Models, Tools and Services at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Maddox, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Berrios, D.; Pulkkinen, A.; Zheng, Y.; MacNeice, P. J.; Shim, J.; Takakishvili, A.; Chulaki, A.

    2010-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. Space weather models and coupled model chains hosted at the CCMC range from the solar corona to the Earth's upper atmosphere. CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as a large number of modeling and data products tailored to address the space weather needs of NASA's robotic missions. The presentation will demonstrate the rapid progress towards development the system allowing using products derived from space weather models in applications associated with National Space Weather needs. The adaptable Integrated Space Weather Analysis (ISWA) System developed at CCMC for NASA-relevant space weather information combines forecasts based on advanced space weather models hosted at CCMC with concurrent space environment information. The system is also enabling post-impact analysis and flexible dissemination of space weather information.

  18. Operational Numerical Weather Prediction at the Met Office and potential ways forward for operational space weather prediction systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jackson, David

    NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar

  19. GEO Satellites as Space Weather Sensors

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-04-26

    Solar   Energy ,  Jan.  2016.     Lohmeyer,  W.  and  K.  Cahoy,  “Space  Weather  Radiation  Effects  on...Journal of Solar Energy , Jan. 2016. Lohmeyer, W. and K. Cahoy, "Space Weather Radiation Effects on Geostationary Satellite Solid-State Power Amplifiers...34 submitted for publication in the Journal of Solar Energy , Jan. 2016. Lohmeyer, W. and K. Cahoy, "Space Weather Radiation Effects on

  20. Intuitive Space Weather Displays to Improve Space Situational Awareness (SSA)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-09-01

    Kathy Echiverri, and Lauri Cross (PatchPlus Consulting), and Seth Orloff, and Lydia Lavigne (Ball Aerospace), Kevin Scro (Air Force Space Command...Paul O’Brien (Aerospace Corp), and Paul Gehred (Air Force Weather Agency). 6. References [1] Reeves, G . 2010. Integration of Space Weather into Space

  1. Engaging Earth- and Environmental-Science Undergraduates Through Weather Discussions and an eLearning Weather Forecasting Contest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, David M.; Anderson, Stuart; Seo-Zindy, Ryo

    2013-06-01

    For students who major in meteorology, engaging in weather forecasting can motivate learning, develop critical-thinking skills, improve their written communication, and yield better forecasts. Whether such advances apply to students who are not meteorology majors has been less demonstrated. To test this idea, a weather discussion and an eLearning weather forecasting contest were devised for a meteorology course taken by third-year undergraduate earth- and environmental-science students. The discussion consisted of using the recent, present, and future weather to amplify the topics of the week's lectures. Then, students forecasted the next day's high temperature and the probability of precipitation for Woodford, the closest official observing site to Manchester, UK. The contest ran for 10 weeks, and the students received credit for participation. The top students at the end of the contest received bonus points on their final grade. A Web-based forecast contest application was developed to register the students, receive their forecasts, and calculate weekly standings. Students who were successful in the forecast contest were not necessarily those who achieved the highest scores on the tests, demonstrating that the contest was possibly testing different skills than traditional learning. Student evaluations indicate that the weather discussion and contest were reasonably successful in engaging students to learn about the weather outside of the classroom, synthesize their knowledge from the lectures, and improve their practical understanding of the weather. Therefore, students taking a meteorology class, but not majoring in meteorology, can derive academic benefits from weather discussions and forecast contests. Nevertheless, student evaluations also indicate that better integration of the lectures, weather discussions, and the forecasting contests is necessary.

  2. Operational Space Weather in USAF Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smithtro, C.; Quigley, S.

    2006-12-01

    Most education programs offering space weather courses are understandably and traditionally heavily weighted with theoretical space physics that is the basis for most of what is researched and modeled. While understanding the theory is a good and necessary grounding for anyone working the field of space weather, few military or commercial jobs employ such theory in real-time operations. The operations sites/centers are much more geared toward use of applied theory-resultant models, tools and products. To ensure its operations centers personnel, commanders, real-time system operators and other customers affected by the space environment are educated on available and soon-to-be operational space weather models and products, the USAF has developed applicable course/lecture material taught at various institutions to include the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) and the Joint Weather Training Complex (335th/TRS/OUA). Less frequent training of operational space weather is available via other venues that will be discussed, and associated course material is also being developed for potential use at the National Security Space Institute (NSSI). This presentation provides an overview of the programs, locations, courses and material developed and/or taught by or for USAF personnel dealing with operational space weather. It also provides general information on student research project results that may be used in operational support, along with observations regarding logistical and professional benefits of teaching such non-theoretical/non-traditional material.

  3. Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez-Esparza, J. A.; De la Luz, V.; Corona-Romero, P.; Mejia-Ambriz, J. C.; Gonzalez, L. X.; Sergeeva, M. A.; Romero-Hernandez, E.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E.

    2017-01-01

    Legislative modifications of the General Civil Protection Law in Mexico in 2014 included specific references to space hazards and space weather phenomena. The legislation is consistent with United Nations promotion of international engagement and cooperation on space weather awareness, studies, and monitoring. These internal and external conditions motivated the creation of a space weather service in Mexico. The Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX in Spanish) (www.sciesmex.unam.mx) was initiated in October 2014 and is operated by the Institute of Geophysics at the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM). SCiESMEX became a Regional Warning Center of the International Space Environment Services (ISES) in June 2015. We present the characteristics of the service, some products, and the initial actions for developing a space weather strategy in Mexico. The service operates a computing infrastructure including a web application, data repository, and a high-performance computing server to run numerical models. SCiESMEX uses data of the ground-based instrumental network of the National Space Weather Laboratory (LANCE), covering solar radio burst emissions, solar wind and interplanetary disturbances (by interplanetary scintillation observations), geomagnetic measurements, and analysis of the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere (by employing data from local networks of GPS receiver stations).

  4. 1. The impact of weather forecast improvements on large scale hydrology: analysing a decade of forecasts of the European Flood Alert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pappenberger, Florian; Thielen, Jutta; Del Medico, Mauro

    2010-05-01

    The European Flood Alert System (EFAS) provides early flood alerts on a pre-operational basis to National hydrological services. EFAS river discharge forecasts are based on probabilistic techniques, using ensemble system and deterministic numerical weather prediction data. The performance of EFAS is regularly analysed with regard to individual flood events and case studies. Although this analysis provides important insight into the strengths and weaknesses of the forecast system, it lacks statistical and independent measures of its long-term performance. In this paper an assessment of EFAS results based on ECMWF weather forecasts over a period of 10 years is presented. EFAS river discharge forecasts have been rerun every week for a period of 10 years using the weather forecast available at the time. These are evaluated for a total of 500 river gauging stations distributed across Europe.. The selected stations are sufficiently separated in space to avoid autocorrelation of station time series. Also, analysis is performed with a gap of 3 days between each forecast which reduces the temporal correlation of the time series of the same station. The data are analysed with regard to skill, bias and quality of river discharge forecast. The 10 year simulations clearly show that the skill of the river discharge forecasts have undergone an evolution linked to the quality of the operational meteorological forecast. Overall, over the period of 10 years, the skill of the EFAS forecasts has steadily increased. Important hydrological extreme events cannot be clearly identified with the skill score analysis, highlighting the necessity for event based analysis in addition to statistical long-term assessments for a better understanding of the EFAS system and large scale river discharge predictions in general. he predictability is shown to depend on catchment size and geographical location.

  5. Assessment of the Aviation Weather Center Global Forecasts of Mesoscale Convective Systems(.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ziv, Baruch; Yair, Yoav; Presman, Karin; Füllekrug, Martin

    2004-05-01

    This paper examines the precision of location and top height of mesoscale convective systems, as forecast by the Aviation Weather Center (AWC). The examination was motivated by the Mediterranean Israeli Dust Experiment (MEIDEX) on the space shuttle Columbia, aimed to image transient luminous events (TLEs), such as sprites, jets, and elves, from orbit. Mesoscale convective systems offer a high probability for the occurrence of TLEs above active thunderstorms. Because the operational methodology was planned around a 24-h cycle, there was a need for a global forecast of areas with a high probability of massive thunderstorms that are prone to exhibit TLE activity. The forecast was based on the high-level significant weather (SIGWX) maps, commonly used for civil aviation, provided by the AWC on the Internet. To estimate the operational skill of this forecast for successfully detecting clouds with a high probability for producing TLEs, predictions for selected dates were compared with satellite observations. The locations of 66 mesoscale cloud systems on Significant Weather Maps, produced for eight different dates in August 2001, were compared with satellite global IR images for these dates. Operational skill was determined as the percentage of observed cloud systems found within a 5° range in the regions that appeared on the forecast maps as having the potential to contain thunderclouds and was found to be 92%. No consistent error was found in location. The predicted size of the convective system was typically larger than the observed size. Cloud-top heights of 53 systems were examined on four dates in October November 2001, using IR radiances converted to brightness temperatures. For each convective system, the coldest cloud-top temperature was converted to height, using the NCEP NCAR reanalysis data for the respective location and time. The standard error in the forecast heights was 2516 m. Because the purpose was to get true alerts of potential TLE occurrences

  6. Aurorasaurus: Citizen Scientists Experiencing Extremes of Space Weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MacDonald, E.; Hall, M.; Tapia, A.

    2013-12-01

    Aurorasaurus is a new citizen science mapping platform to nowcast the visibility of the Northern Lights for the public in the current solar maximum, the first with social media. As a recently funded NSF INSPIRE program, we have joint goals among three research disciplines: space weather forecasting, the study of human-computer interactions, and informal science education. We will highlight results from the prototype www.aurorasaurus.org and outline future efforts to motivate online participants and crowdsource viable data. Our citizen science effort is unique among space programs as it includes both reporting observations and data analysis activities to engage the broadest participant network possible. In addition, our efforts to improve space weather nowcasting by including real-time mapping of ground truth observers for rare, sporadic events are a first in the field.

  7. Advancing Space Weather Modeling Capabilities at the CCMC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mays, M. Leila; Kuznetsova, Maria; Boblitt, Justin; Chulaki, Anna; MacNeice, Peter; Mendoza, Michelle; Mullinix, Richard; Pembroke, Asher; Pulkkinen, Antti; Rastaetter, Lutz; Shim, Ja Soon; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Wiegand, Chiu; Zheng, Yihua

    2016-04-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) serves as a community access point to an expanding collection of state-of-the-art space environment models and as a hub for collaborative development on next generation of space weather forecasting systems. In partnership with model developers and the international research and operational communities, the CCMC integrates new data streams and models from diverse sources into end-to-end space weather predictive systems, identifies weak links in data-model & model-model coupling and leads community efforts to fill those gaps. The presentation will focus on the latest model installations at the CCMC and advances in CCMC-led community-wide model validation projects.

  8. Space Weather Research in Greece: The Solar Energetic Particle Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malandraki, Olga E.

    2015-03-01

    Space Weather Research carried out in the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), within the SEPServer and COMESEP projects under the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-SPACE) of the European Union (EU) is presented. Results and services that these projects provide to the whole scientific community as well as stakeholders are underlined. NOA strongly contributes in terms of crucial Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) dataset provided, data analysis and SEP catalogue items provided as well as comparative results of the various components of the project server, greatly facilitating the investigation of SEPs and their origin. SEP research highlights carried out at NOA are also presented, used to test and validate the particle SEP model developed and incorporated within the SEP forecasting tools of the COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP) Space Weather Alert System, i.e. the First European Alert System for geomagnetic storms and SEP radiation hazards.

  9. Europe's First Space Weather Think Tank

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lilensten, Jean; Clark, Toby; Belehaki, Anna

    2004-04-01

    A new European intergovernmental action devoted to space weather has been recently approved. This paper describes the political and scientific context in which this action takes place, and the goals of this action, called COST 724.

  10. Discover Space Weather and Sun's Superpowers: Using CCMC's innovative tools and applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendoza, A. M. M.; Maddox, M. M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Chulaki, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Mullinix, R.; Weigand, C.; Boblitt, J.; Taktakishvili, A.; MacNeice, P. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Pembroke, A. D.; Mays, M. L.; Zheng, Y.; Shim, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has developed a comprehensive set of tools and applications that are directly applicable to space weather and space science education. These tools, some of which were developed by our student interns, are capable of serving a wide range of student audiences, from middle school to postgraduate research. They include a web-based point of access to sophisticated space physics models and visualizations, and a powerful space weather information dissemination system, available on the web and as a mobile app. In this demonstration, we will use CCMC's innovative tools to engage the audience in real-time space weather analysis and forecasting and will share some of our interns' hands-on experiences while being trained as junior space weather forecasters. The main portals to CCMC's educational material are ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov and iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov

  11. Space Weather: What is it, and Why Should a Meteorologist Care?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    SaintCyr, Chris; Murtagh, Bill

    2008-01-01

    "Space weather" is a term coined almost 15 years ago to describe environmental conditions ABOVE Earth's atmosphere that affect satellites and astronauts. As society has become more dependent on technology, we nave found that space weather conditions increasingly affect numerous commercial and infrastructure sectors: airline operations, the precision positioning industry, and the electric power grid, to name a few. Similar to meteorology where "weather" often refers to severe conditions, "space weather" includes geomagnetic storms, radiation storms, and radio blackouts. But almost all space weather conditions begin at the Sun--our middle-age, magnetically-variable star. At NASA, the science behind space weather takes place in the Heliophysics Division. The Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, is manned jointly by NCAA and US Air Force personnel, and it provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth. Organizationally, it resides in NOAA's National Weather Service as one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. In this seminar we hope to give the audience a brief introduction to the causes of space weather, discuss some of the effects, and describe the state of the art in forecasting. Our goal is to highlight that meteorologists are increasingly becoming the "first responders" to questions about space weather causes and effects.

  12. Space Weather: What is it, and Why Should a Meteorologist Care?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    SaintCyr, Chris; Murtagh, Bill

    2008-01-01

    "Space weather" is a term coined almost 15 years ago to describe environmental conditions ABOVE Earth's atmosphere that affect satellites and astronauts. As society has become more dependent on technology, we nave found that space weather conditions increasingly affect numerous commercial and infrastructure sectors: airline operations, the precision positioning industry, and the electric power grid, to name a few. Similar to meteorology where "weather" often refers to severe conditions, "space weather" includes geomagnetic storms, radiation storms, and radio blackouts. But almost all space weather conditions begin at the Sun--our middle-age, magnetically-variable star. At NASA, the science behind space weather takes place in the Heliophysics Division. The Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, is manned jointly by NCAA and US Air Force personnel, and it provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth. Organizationally, it resides in NOAA's National Weather Service as one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. In this seminar we hope to give the audience a brief introduction to the causes of space weather, discuss some of the effects, and describe the state of the art in forecasting. Our goal is to highlight that meteorologists are increasingly becoming the "first responders" to questions about space weather causes and effects.

  13. Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dreher, Joseph; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian; Van Speybroeck, Kurt

    2009-01-01

    The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) is responsible for providing meteorological support to state and county emergency management agencies across East Central Florida in the event of incidents involving the significant release of harmful chemicals, radiation, and smoke from fires and/or toxic plumes into the atmosphere. NWS MLB uses the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to provide trajectory, concentration, and deposition guidance during such events. Accurate and timely guidance is critical for decision makers charged with protecting the health and well-being of populations at risk. Information that can describe the geographic extent of areas possibly affected by a hazardous release, as well as to indicate locations of primary concern, offer better opportunity for prompt and decisive action. In addition, forecasters at the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have expressed interest in using the HYSPLIT model to assist with Weather Flight Rules during Space Shuttle landing operations. In particular, SMG would provide low and mid-level HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts for cumulus clouds associated with smoke plumes, and high-level trajectory forecasts for thunderstorm anvils. Another potential benefit for both NWS MLB and SMG is using the HYSPLIT model concentration and deposition guidance in fog situations.

  14. Space Weather Gets Real—on Smartphones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobiska, W. Kent; Crowley, Geoff; Oh, Seung Jun; Guhathakurta, Madhulika

    2010-10-01

    True to the saying that "a picture is worth a thousand words," society's affinity for visual images has driven innovative efforts to see space weather as it happens. The newest frontiers of these efforts involve applications, or apps, on cellular phones, allowing space weather researchers, operators, and teachers, as well as other interested parties, to have the ability to monitor conditions in real time with just the touch of a button.

  15. ISES Experience in Delivering Space Weather Services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boteler, David

    The International Space Environment Service has over eighty years experience in providing space weather services to meet a wide variety of user needs. This started with broadcast on December 1, 2008 from the Eiffel Tower about radio conditions. The delivery of information about ionospheric effects on high frequency (HF) radio propagation continue to be a major concern in many parts of the world. The movement into space brought requirements for a new set of space weather services, ranging from radiation dangers to man in space, damage to satellites and effects on satellite communication and navigation systems. On the ground magnetic survey, power system and pipeline operators require information about magnetic disturbances that can affect their operations. In the past these services have been delivered by individual Regional Warning Centres. However, the needs of new trans-national users are stimulating the development of new collaborative international space weather services.

  16. Realistic weather simulations and forecast verification with COSMO-EULAG

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wójcik, Damian; Piotrowski, Zbigniew; Rosa, Bogdan; Ziemiański, Michał

    2015-04-01

    Research conducted at Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute, in collaboration with Consortium for Small Scale Modeling (COSMO) resulted in the development of a new prototype model COSMO-EULAG. The dynamical core of the new model is based on anelastic set of equation and numerics adopted from the EULAG model. The core is coupled, with the 1st degree of accuracy, to the COSMO physical parameterizations involving turbulence, friction, radiation, moist processes and surface fluxes. The tool is capable to compute weather forecast in mountainous area for the horizontal resolutions ranging from 2.2 km to 0.1 km and with slopes reaching 82 degree of inclination. An employment of EULAG allows to profit from its desirable conservative properties and numerical robustness confirmed in number of benchmark tests and widely documented in scientific literature. In this study we show a realistic case study of Alpine summer convection simulated by COSMO-EULAG. It compares the convection-permitting realization of the flow using 2.2 km horizontal grid size, typical for contemporary very high resolution regional NWP forecast, with realization of LES type using grid size of 100 m. The study presents comparison of flow, cloud and precipitation structure together with the reference results of standard compressible COSMO Runge-Kutta model forecast in 2.2 km horizontal resolution. The case study results are supplemented by COSMO-EULAG forecast verification results for Alpine domain in 2.2 km horizontal resolution. Wind, temperature, cloud, humidity and precipitation scores are being presented. Verification period covers one summer month (June 2013) and one autumn month (November 2013). Verification is based on data collected by a network of approximately 200 stations (surface data verification) and 6 stations (upper-air verification) located in the Alps and vicinity.

  17. Space Weathering in the Mercurian Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noble, S. K.; Pieters, C. M.

    2001-01-01

    Space weathering processes are known to be important on the Moon. These processes both create the lunar regolith and alter its optical properties. Like the Moon, Mercury has no atmosphere to protect it from the harsh space environment and therefore it is expected that it will also incur the effects of space weathering. However, there are many important differences between the environments of Mercury and the Moon. These environmental differences will almost certainly affect the weathering processes and the products of those processes. It should be possible to observe the effects of these differences in Vis (visible)/NIR (near infrared) spectra of the type expected to be returned by MESSENGER. More importantly, understanding these weathering processes and their consequences is essential for evaluating the spectral data returned from MESSENGER and other missions in order to determine the mineralogy and the Fe content of the Mercurian surface. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  18. Space Weathering in the Mercurian Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noble, S. K.; Pieters, C. M.

    2001-01-01

    Space weathering processes are known to be important on the Moon. These processes both create the lunar regolith and alter its optical properties. Like the Moon, Mercury has no atmosphere to protect it from the harsh space environment and therefore it is expected that it will also incur the effects of space weathering. However, there are many important differences between the environments of Mercury and the Moon. These environmental differences will almost certainly affect the weathering processes and the products of those processes. It should be possible to observe the effects of these differences in Vis (visible)/NIR (near infrared) spectra of the type expected to be returned by MESSENGER. More importantly, understanding these weathering processes and their consequences is essential for evaluating the spectral data returned from MESSENGER and other missions in order to determine the mineralogy and the Fe content of the Mercurian surface. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  19. Space Weathering in the Inner Solar System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noble, Sarah K.

    2010-01-01

    "Space weathering" is the term given to the cumulative effects incurred by surfaces which are exposed to the harsh environment of space. Lunar sample studies over the last decade or so have produced a clear picture of space weathering processes in the lunar environment. By combining laboratory and remote spectra with microanalytical methods (scanning and transmission electron microscopy), we have begun to unravel the various processes (irradiation, micrometeorite bombardment, etc) that contribute to space weathering and the physical and optical consequences of those processes on the Moon. Using the understanding gleaned from lunar samples, it is possible to extrapolate weathering processes to other airless bodies from which we have not yet returned samples (i.e. Mercury, asteroids). Through experiments which simulate various components of weathering, the expected differences in environment (impact rate, distance from Sun, presence of a magnetic field, reduced or enhanced gravity, etc) and composition (particularly iron content) can be explored to understand how space weathering will manifest on a given body.

  20. Types of Forecast and Weather-Related Information Used among Tourism Businesses in Coastal North Carolina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayscue, Emily P.

    This study profiles the coastal tourism sector, a large and diverse consumer of climate and weather information. It is crucial to provide reliable, accurate and relevant resources for the climate and weather-sensitive portions of this stakeholder group in order to guide them in capitalizing on current climate and weather conditions and to prepare them for potential changes. An online survey of tourism business owners, managers and support specialists was conducted within the eight North Carolina oceanfront counties asking respondents about forecasts they use and for what purposes as well as why certain forecasts are not used. Respondents were also asked about their perceived dependency of their business on climate and weather as well as how valuable different forecasts are to their decision-making. Business types represented include: Agriculture, Outdoor Recreation, Accommodations, Food Services, Parks and Heritage, and Other. Weekly forecasts were the most popular forecasts with Monthly and Seasonal being the least used. MANOVA and ANOVA analyses revealed outdoor-oriented businesses (Agriculture and Outdoor Recreation) as perceiving themselves significantly more dependent on climate and weather than indoor-oriented ones (Food Services and Accommodations). Outdoor businesses also valued short-range forecasts significantly more than indoor businesses. This suggests a positive relationship between perceived climate and weather dependency and forecast value. The low perceived dependency and value of short-range forecasts of indoor businesses presents an opportunity to create climate and weather information resources directed at how they can capitalize on positive climate and weather forecasts and how to counter negative effects with forecasted adverse conditions. The low use of long-range forecasts among all business types can be related to the low value placed on these forecasts. However, these forecasts are still important in that they are used to make more

  1. Weather Stations as Educational and Hazard-Forecasting Tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowman, L. J.; Gierke, J. S.; Gochis, E. E.; Dominguez, R.; Mayer, A. S.

    2014-12-01

    Small, relatively inexpensive (<$1000 USD) weather stations can be valuable tools for enhancing inquiry-based educational opportunities at all grade levels, while also facilitating compilation of climate data for longer term research. Weather stations and networks of stations have been installed both locally and abroad in mostly rural and resource-limited settings. The data are being used either in the classroom to engage students in place-based, scientific investigations and/or research to improve hydrometeorological hazard forecasting, including water scarcity. The San Vicente (El Salvador) Network of six stations monitors rainfall to aid warning and evacuations for landslide and flooding hazards. Other parameters are used in modeling the watershed hydrology. A station installed in Hermosillo, Mexico is used in both Geography and Ecology Classes. Trends in temperature and rainfall are graphed and compared to historic data gathered over the last 30 years by CONAGUA. These observations are linked to local water-related problems, including well salinization, diminished agriculture, depleted aquifers, and social conflict regarding access to water. Two weather stations were installed at the Hannahville Indian Community School (Nah Tah Wahsh) in Michigan for educational purposes of data collection, analysis, and presentation. Through inquiry-based explorations of local hydrological processes, students are introduced to how meteorological data are used in understanding watershed hydrology and the sustainable management of groundwater resources. Several Michigan Technological University Peace Corps Masters International students have deployed weather stations in and around the communities where they serve, and the data are used in research to help in understanding water resource availability and irrigation needs.

  2. Fine forecasts: encouraging the media to include ultraviolet radiation information in summertime weather forecasts.

    PubMed

    Richards, R; Reeder, A I; Bulliard, J-L

    2004-12-01

    Melanoma and skin cancer are largely attributable to over-exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR). Reports of UVR levels within media weather forecasts appear to be well received by the public and have good potential to communicate the need for appropriate sun protection to a broad audience. This study describes provision of UVR messages by New Zealand newspapers, radio and TV stations over a 4-year period, and examines the impact of an intervention which aimed to address media concerns about the financial costs of accessing UVR information for broadcast. Newspaper and radio presentation of UVR information increased immediately after these costs were removed; however, among radio stations it dropped in subsequent years. Among those media that were presenting UVR, this information was broadcast throughout the summer period and repeated throughout the day. Furthermore, most reports included concomitant, behavioral sun protection messages. At the final assessment (summer 2001/02), 66% of radio stations, both TV channels and 48% of newspapers reported UVR information in summertime weather reports. Efforts to further increase UVR presentation will need to address media concerns about time constraints on weather forecasts and media perceptions of poor audience demand or understanding of some UVR messages.

  3. Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst-Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joslyn, Susan; Savelli, Sonia; Nadav-Greenberg, Limor

    2011-01-01

    Many weather forecast providers believe that forecast uncertainty in the form of the worst-case scenario would be useful for general public end users. We tested this suggestion in 4 studies using realistic weather-related decision tasks involving high winds and low temperatures. College undergraduates, given the statistical equivalent of the…

  4. Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst-Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joslyn, Susan; Savelli, Sonia; Nadav-Greenberg, Limor

    2011-01-01

    Many weather forecast providers believe that forecast uncertainty in the form of the worst-case scenario would be useful for general public end users. We tested this suggestion in 4 studies using realistic weather-related decision tasks involving high winds and low temperatures. College undergraduates, given the statistical equivalent of the…

  5. Simulating Space Weather at Pluto

    NASA Image and Video Library

    This video shows a simulation of the space environment all the way out to Pluto in the months surrounding New Horizons’ July 2015 flyby. At the time, scientists at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Cente...

  6. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    SciTech Connect

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improves WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.

  7. ESA situational awareness of space weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luntama, Juha-Pekka; Glover, Alexi; Keil, Ralf; Kraft, Stefan; Lupi, Adriano

    2016-07-01

    ESA SSA Period 2 started at the beginning of 2013 and will last until the end of 2016. For the Space Weather Segment, transition to Period 2 introduced an increasing amount of development of new space weather service capability in addition to networking existing European assets. This transition was started already towards the end of SSA Period 1 with the initiation of the SSA Space Weather Segment architecture definition studies and activities enhancing existing space weather assets. The objective of Period 2 has been to initiate SWE space segment developments in the form of hosted payload missions and further expand the federated service network. A strong focus has been placed on demonstration and testing of European capabilities in the range of SWE service domains with a view to establishing core products which can form the basis of SWE service provision during SSA Period 3. This focus has been particularly addressed in the SSA Expert Service Centre (ESC) Definition and Development activity that was started in September 2015. This presentation will cover the current status of the SSA SWE Segment and the achievements during SSA Programme Periods 1 and 2. Particular attention is given to the federated approach that allow building the end user services on the best European expertise. The presentation will also outline the plans for the Space Weather capability development in the framework of the ESA SSA Programme in 2017-2020.

  8. Use of MODIS/AIRS Direct Broadcast Data for Short Term Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary

    2003-01-01

    Operational weather forecasting relies heavily on real time data and modeling products for forecast preparation and dissemination of significant weather information to the public. The key to this success is access to real time data and integration of the data and products into weather decision support systems. NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Program has demonstrated this capability with MODIS and AIRS data through several local NWS Forecast Offices. This presentation will describe the use of real time EOS Direct Broadcast (DB) data in local weather forecast operations, highlight the utility of real time data from the EOS DB systems, and provide insight into how EOS DB data can have the most impact on the weather forecast community.

  9. Use of MODIS/AIRS Direct Broadcast Data for Short Term Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary

    2003-01-01

    Operational weather forecasting relies heavily on real time data and modeling products for forecast preparation and dissemination of significant weather information to the public. The key to this success is access to real time data and integration of the data and products into weather decision support systems. NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Program has demonstrated this capability with MODIS and AIRS data through several local NWS Forecast Offices. This presentation will describe the use of real time EOS Direct Broadcast (DB) data in local weather forecast operations, highlight the utility of real time data from the EOS DB systems, and provide insight into how EOS DB data can have the most impact on the weather forecast community.

  10. On-line economic optimization of energy systems using weather forecast information.

    SciTech Connect

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-01-01

    We establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit weather forecast information in the operation of energy systems. We argue that anticipating the weather conditions can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The framework is based on the solution of a stochastic dynamic real-time optimization (D-RTO) problem incorporating forecasts generated from a state-of-the-art weather prediction model. The necessary uncertainty information is extracted from the weather model using an ensemble approach. The accuracy of the forecast trends and uncertainty bounds are validated using real meteorological data. We present a numerical simulation study in a building system to demonstrate the developments.

  11. Application of SeaWinds Scatterometer Data to Weather Analysis and Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atlas, Robert

    2003-01-01

    The SeaWinds scatterometer (like NSCAT and ERS) is able to detect unequivocal signatures of meteorological features including cyclones, fronts, anticyclones, easterly waves and other precursors of hurricanes and typhoons. Through collaborative efforts between NASA and NOAA, National Weather Service marine forecasters are using SeaWinds data to improve analyses, forecasts and significant weather warnings for maritime interests. This results in substantial economic savings as well as the reduction of weather related loss of life at sea. The impact of SeaWinds on Numerical Weather Prediction models is on average modest but occasionally results in significant forecast improvements.

  12. Application of SeaWinds Scatterometer Data to Weather Analysis and Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atlas, Robert

    2003-01-01

    The SeaWinds scatterometer (like NSCAT and ERS) is able to detect unequivocal signatures of meteorological features including cyclones, fronts, anticyclones, easterly waves and other precursors of hurricanes and typhoons. Through collaborative efforts between NASA and NOAA, National Weather Service marine forecasters are using SeaWinds data to improve analyses, forecasts and significant weather warnings for maritime interests. This results in substantial economic savings as well as the reduction of weather related loss of life at sea. The impact of SeaWinds on Numerical Weather Prediction models is on average modest but occasionally results in significant forecast improvements.

  13. THOR contribution to space weather science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaivads, Andris; Opgenoorth, Hermann; Retinò, Alessandro; Khotyaintsev, Yuri; Soucek, Jan; Valentini, Francesco; Escoubet, Philippe

    2016-04-01

    Turbulence Heating ObserveR - THOR is a mission proposal to study energy dissipation and particle acceleration in turbulent space plasma. THOR will focus on turbulent plasma in pristine solar wind, bow shock and magnetosheath. The orbit of THOR is tuned to spend long times in those regions allowing THOR to obtain high resolution data sets that can be used also for space weather science. In addition, THOR is designed with enough propellant to reach L1 in the second phase of the mission if necessary. Here we will discuss the space weather science questions that can be addressed and significantly advanced using THOR. Link to THOR: http://thor.irfu.se.

  14. The program of the Techniques Development Laboratory in aviation weather forecasting