atmospheric temperature V = satellite velocity relative to the ambient gas ’ Senior physicist, Space Weather Center of Excellence, Mail Stop: VSBXT; Member...where temperature rises drastically to -600 - 2000 K. The density and hence drag in this region is driven mainly by two solar influences: directly by EUV...bulge that drives winds to transport heat away from the hot dayside toward the Earth’s cold nightside. Temperatures on the dayside are typically 30
Zhong, D.; Feng, X.
The need for a software toolkit that integrates space weather models and data is one of many challenges we are facing with when applying the models to space weather forecasting. To meet this challenge, we have developed Space Weather Integrated Modeling (SWIM) that is capable of analysis and visualizations of the results from a diverse set of space weather models. SWIM has a modular design and is written in Python, by using NumPy, matplotlib, and the Visualization ToolKit (VTK). SWIM provides data management module to read a variety of spacecraft data products and a specific data format of Solar-Interplanetary Conservation Element/Solution Element MHD model (SIP-CESE MHD model) for the study of solar-terrestrial phenomena. Data analysis, visualization and graphic user interface modules are also presented in a user-friendly way to run the integrated models and visualize the 2-D and 3-D data sets interactively. With these tools we can locally or remotely analysis the model result rapidly, such as extraction of data on specific location in time-sequence data sets, plotting interplanetary magnetic field lines, multi-slicing of solar wind speed, volume rendering of solar wind density, animation of time-sequence data sets, comparing between model result and observational data. To speed-up the analysis, an in-situ visualization interface is used to support visualizing the data 'on-the-fly'. We also modified some critical time-consuming analysis and visualization methods with the aid of GPU and multi-core CPU. We have used this tool to visualize the data of SIP-CESE MHD model in real time, and integrated the Database Model of shock arrival, Shock Propagation Model, Dst forecasting model and SIP-CESE MHD model developed by SIGMA Weather Group at State Key Laboratory of Space Weather/CAS.
Toth, Gabor; vanderHolst, Bart; Sokolov, Igor V.; DeZeeuw, Darren; Gombosi, Tamas I.; Fang, Fang; Manchester, Ward B.; Meng, Xing; Nakib, Dalal; Powell, Kenneth G.; Stout, Quentin F.; Glocer, Alex; Ma, Ying-Juan; Opher, Merav
Space weather describes the various processes in the Sun-Earth system that present danger to human health and technology. The goal of space weather forecasting is to provide an opportunity to mitigate these negative effects. Physics-based space weather modeling is characterized by disparate temporal and spatial scales as well as by different physics in different domains. A multi-physics system can be modeled by a software framework comprising of several components. Each component corresponds to a physics domain, and each component is represented by one or more numerical models. The publicly available Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) can execute and couple together several components distributed over a parallel machine in a flexible and efficient manner. The framework also allows resolving disparate spatial and temporal scales with independent spatial and temporal discretizations in the various models. Several of the computationally most expensive domains of the framework are modeled by the Block-Adaptive Tree Solar wind Roe Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) code that can solve various forms of the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equations, including Hall, semi-relativistic, multi-species and multi-fluid MHD, anisotropic pressure, radiative transport and heat conduction. Modeling disparate scales within BATS-R-US is achieved by a block-adaptive mesh both in Cartesian and generalized coordinates. Most recently we have created a new core for BATS-R-US: the Block-Adaptive Tree Library (BATL) that provides a general toolkit for creating, load balancing and message passing in a 1, 2 or 3 dimensional block-adaptive grid. We describe the algorithms of BATL and demonstrate its efficiency and scaling properties for various problems. BATS-R-US uses several time-integration schemes to address multiple time-scales: explicit time stepping with fixed or local time steps, partially steady-state evolution, point-implicit, semi-implicit, explicit/implicit, and fully implicit numerical
Tóth, Gábor; van der Holst, Bart; Sokolov, Igor V.; De Zeeuw, Darren L.; Gombosi, Tamas I.; Fang, Fang; Manchester, Ward B.; Meng, Xing; Najib, Dalal; Powell, Kenneth G.; Stout, Quentin F.; Glocer, Alex; Ma, Ying-Juan; Opher, Merav
Space weather describes the various processes in the Sun-Earth system that present danger to human health and technology. The goal of space weather forecasting is to provide an opportunity to mitigate these negative effects. Physics-based space weather modeling is characterized by disparate temporal and spatial scales as well as by different relevant physics in different domains. A multi-physics system can be modeled by a software framework comprising several components. Each component corresponds to a physics domain, and each component is represented by one or more numerical models. The publicly available Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) can execute and couple together several components distributed over a parallel machine in a flexible and efficient manner. The framework also allows resolving disparate spatial and temporal scales with independent spatial and temporal discretizations in the various models. Several of the computationally most expensive domains of the framework are modeled by the Block-Adaptive Tree Solarwind Roe-type Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) code that can solve various forms of the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations, including Hall, semi-relativistic, multi-species and multi-fluid MHD, anisotropic pressure, radiative transport and heat conduction. Modeling disparate scales within BATS-R-US is achieved by a block-adaptive mesh both in Cartesian and generalized coordinates. Most recently we have created a new core for BATS-R-US: the Block-Adaptive Tree Library (BATL) that provides a general toolkit for creating, load balancing and message passing in a 1, 2 or 3 dimensional block-adaptive grid. We describe the algorithms of BATL and demonstrate its efficiency and scaling properties for various problems. BATS-R-US uses several time-integration schemes to address multiple time-scales: explicit time stepping with fixed or local time steps, partially steady-state evolution, point-implicit, semi-implicit, explicit/implicit, and fully implicit
Maddox, Marlo M.; Mullinix, Richard E.; Berrios, David H.; Hesse, Michael; Rastaetter, Lutz; Pulkkinen, Antti; Hourcle, Joseph A.; Thompson, Barbara J.
The Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System is a comprehensive web-based platform for space weather information that combines data from solar, heliospheric and geospace observatories with forecasts based on the most advanced space weather models. The iSWA system collects, generates, and presents a wide array of space weather resources in an intuitive, user-configurable, and adaptable format - thus enabling users to respond to current and future space weather impacts as well as enabling post-impact analysis. iSWA currently provides over 200 data and modeling products, and features a variety of tools that allow the user to browse, combine, and examine data and models from various sources. This presentation will consist of a summary of the iSWA products and an overview of the customizable user interfaces, and will feature several tutorial demonstrations highlighting the interactive tools and advanced capabilities.
Ridley, A. J.; Liemohn, M.; Dezeeuw, D.; Ilie, R.; Sokolov, I.; Toth, G.; Yu, Y.
The magnetosphere within the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) has been represented by a global magnetosphere model (BATSRUS), an inner magnetosphere model (the Rice Convection Model) and a model of the ionospheric electrodynamics. We present significant improvements in the SWMF: (1) We have implemented a spherical grid within BATSRUS and have utilized this for modeling the magnetosphere; (2) We have significantly improved the physics of the auroral oval within the ionospheric electrodynamics code, modeling a self-consistent diffuse and discrete auroral oval; (3) We utilize the multifluid MHD code within BATSRUS to allow for more accurate specification and differentiation of the density within the magnetosphere; and (4) we have incorporated the Hot Electron and Ion Drift Integrator (HEIDI) ring current code within the SWMF. We will present these improvements and show the quantitative differences within the model results when comparing to a suite of measurements for a number of different intervals.
Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Maddox, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Berrios, D.; Zheng, Y.; MacNeice, P. J.; Shim, J.; Taktakishvili, A.; Chulaki, A.
The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. Space weather models and coupled model chains hosted at the CCMC range from the solar corona to the Earth's upper atmosphere. CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as a large number of modeling and data products tailored to address the space weather needs of NASA's robotic missions. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. CCMC has been leading recent comprehensive modeling challenges under GEM, CEDAR and SHINE programs. The presentation will focus on experience in carrying out comprehensive and systematic validation of large sets of. space weather models
Kuznetsova, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Hesse, M.; Chulaki, A.; Maddox, M.
The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multiagency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather modes. CCMC goal is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. The presentation will demonstrate the recent progress in CCMC metrics and validation activities.
Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Maddox, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Berrios, D.; MacNeice, P.
The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second CCMC activity is to support Space Weather forecasting at national Space Weather Forecasting Centers. This second activity involves model evaluations, model transitions to operations, and the development of space weather forecasting tools. Owing to the pace of development in the science community, new model capabilities emerge frequently. Consequently, space weather products and tools involve not only increased validity, but often entirely new capabilities. This presentation will review the present state of space weather tools as well as point out emerging future capabilities.
The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the rapid prototyping centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires dose collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as distributed computing facilities provided by the US Air Force. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide updates on CCMC status, on current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and on the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.
The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the Rapid Prototyping Centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires close collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide a description of the current CCMC status, discuss current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and describe the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.
NASA's Space Weather Research Center modeled the July 23, 2012 CME using a modeling program called ENLIL. The CME can be seen to expand dramatically as it travels through space. By comparing how we...
Zanetti, L. J.; Wing, S.
In response to the growing space weather needs, the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) developed and delivered twenty two state of the art space weather products under the auspice of the University Partnering in Operational Support program, initiated in 1998. These products offer nowcasts and forecasts for the region spanning from the Sun to the Earth. Some of these products have been transitioned to the Air Force Weather Agency and other space weather centers. The transition process is quite different from research modeling, requiring additional staff with different sets of expertise. Recently, APL has developed a space weather web page to serve these products to the research and user community. For the initial stage, we have chosen ten of these products to be served from our website, which is presently still under construction. APL’s experience, lessons learned, and successes from developing space weather models, the transition to operations process and the webpage access will be shared and discussed
In addition to supporting space research in the international community, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has as its second objective to apply the power of modern research models toward space weather specification and forecasting. Motivated by the objectives to test models and to ease the transition of research models to space weather forecasting organizations, the CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as a large number of modeling and data products for space weather forecasting support. Over time, these activities have produced tailored products for partners, as well as tools, which address the space weather needs of NASA's robotic mission community. All tools are accessible via a configurable, flexible interface. During this process, CCMC has accumulated substantial experience in understanding model performance, as well as in the design and execution of realtime systems. This presentation will focus on lessons learned and it will suggest low hanging fruit for transition to operations at partner agencies.
In addition to supporting space research in the international community, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has as its second objective to bring to apply the power of modern research models toward space weather specification and forecasting. Initially motivated by the objective to test models and to ease the transition of research models to space weather forecasting organization, the CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as large number of modeling and data products for space weather forecasting. Over time, these activities have evolved into tailored products for partners, as well as into a direct support of the space weather needs within NASA robotic mission community. Accessible through a customizable interface, users within the US or at partnering institutions internationally have access to space weather tools driven by the most advanced space research models. Through partnering with agencies and institutions in the US and abroad, the CCMC strives to set up further data sharing agreements to the benefit of all participating institutions. In this presentation, we provide an overview of existing CCMC space weather services and products, and we will explore additional avenues for international collaborations.
Liu, Siqing; Gong, Jiancun
Since space weather prediction is currently at the stage of transition from human experience to objective forecasting methods, developing operational forecasting models becomes an important way to improve the capabilities of space weather service. As the existing theoretical models are not fully operational when it comes to space weather prediction, we carried out researches on developing operational models, considering the user needs for prediction of key elements in space environment, which have vital impacts on space assets security. We focused on solar activities, geomagnetic activities, high-energy particles, atmospheric density, plasma environment and so forth. Great progresses have been made in developing 3D dynamic asymmetric magnetopause model, plasma sheet energetic electron flux forecasting model and 400km-atmospheric density forecasting model, and also in the prediction of high-speed solar-wind streams from coronal holes and geomagnetic AE indices. Some of these models have already been running in the operational system of Space Environment Prediction Center, National Space Science Center (SEPC/NSSC). This presentation will introduce the research plans for space weather prediction in China, and current progresses of developing operational models and their applications in daily space weather services in SEPC/NSSC.
Terkildsen, Michael; Steward, Graham; Neudegg, Dave; Marshall, Richard
Extreme space weather events, while rare, pose significant risk to society in the form of impacts on critical infrastructure such as power grids, and the disruption of high end technological systems such as satellites and precision navigation and timing systems. There has been an increased focus on modelling the effects of extreme space weather, as well as improving the ability of space weather forecast centres to identify, with sufficient lead time, solar activity with the potential to produce extreme events. This paper describes the development of a data-based model for predicting the occurrence of extreme space weather events from solar observation. The motivation for this work was to develop a tool to assist space weather forecasters in early identification of solar activity conditions with the potential to produce extreme space weather, and with sufficient lead time to notify relevant customer groups. Data-based modelling techniques were used to construct the model, and an extensive archive of solar observation data used to train, optimise and test the model. The optimisation of the base model aimed to eliminate false negatives (missed events) at the expense of a tolerable increase in false positives, under the assumption of an iterative improvement in forecast accuracy during progression of the solar disturbance, as subsequent data becomes available.
Mays, M. Leila; Kuznetsova, Maria; Boblitt, Justin; Chulaki, Anna; MacNeice, Peter; Mendoza, Michelle; Mullinix, Richard; Pembroke, Asher; Pulkkinen, Antti; Rastaetter, Lutz; Shim, Ja Soon; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Wiegand, Chiu; Zheng, Yihua
The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) serves as a community access point to an expanding collection of state-of-the-art space environment models and as a hub for collaborative development on next generation of space weather forecasting systems. In partnership with model developers and the international research and operational communities, the CCMC integrates new data streams and models from diverse sources into end-to-end space weather predictive systems, identifies weak links in data-model & model-model coupling and leads community efforts to fill those gaps. The presentation will focus on the latest model installations at the CCMC and advances in CCMC-led community-wide model validation projects.
Barth, Janet L.
This viewgraph presentation attempts to develop a model of factors which need to be considered in the design and construction of spacecraft to lessen the effects of space weather on these vehicles. Topics considered include: space environments and effects, radiation environments and effects, space weather drivers, space weather models, climate models, solar proton activity and mission design for the GOES mission. The authors conclude that space environment models need to address issues from mission planning through operations and a program to develop and validate authoritative space environment models for application to spacecraft design does not exist at this time.
Toth, G.; Fang, F.; Frazin, R. A.; Gombosi, T. I.; Ilie, R.; Liemohn, M. W.; Manchester, W. B.; Meng, X.; Pawlowski, D. J.; Ridley, A. J.; Sokolov, I.; van der Holst, B.; Vichare, G.; Yigit, E.; Yu, Y.; Buzulukova, N.; Fok, M. H.; Glocer, A.; Jordanova, V. K.; Welling, D. T.; Zaharia, S. G.
The success of physics based space weather forecasting depends on several factors: we need sufficient amount and quality of timely observational data, we have to understand the physics of the Sun-Earth system well enough, we need sophisticated computational models, and the models have to run faster than real time on the available computational resources. This presentation will focus on a single ingredient, the recent improvements of the mathematical and numerical models in the Space Weather Modeling Framework. We have developed a new physics based CME initiation code using flux emergence from the convection zone solving the equations of radiative magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). Our new lower corona and solar corona models use electron heat conduction, Alfven wave heating, and boundary conditions based on solar tomography. We can obtain a physically consistent solar wind model from the surface of the Sun all the way to the L1 point without artificially changing the polytropic index. The global magnetosphere model can now solve the multi-ion MHD equations and take into account the oxygen outflow from the polar wind model. We have also added the options of solving for Hall MHD and anisotropic pressure. Several new inner magnetosphere models have been added to the framework: CRCM, HEIDI and RAM-SCB. These new models resolve the pitch angle distribution of the trapped particles. The upper atmosphere model GITM has been improved by including a self-consistent equatorial electrodynamics and the effects of solar flares. This presentation will very briefly describe the developments and highlight some results obtained with the improved and new models.
Chulaki, A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; MacNeice, P. J.; Shim, J. S.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Mendoza, A. M. M.; Zheng, Y.; Mullinix, R.; Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Maddox, M. M.; Pembroke, A. D.; Wiegand, C.
Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a NASA affiliated interagency partnership with the primary goal of aiding the transition of modern space science models into space weather forecasting while supporting space science research. Additionally, over the past ten years it has established itself as a global space science education resource supporting undergraduate and graduate education and research, and spreading space weather awareness worldwide. A unique combination of assets, capabilities and close ties to the scientific and educational communities enable this small group to serve as a hub for raising generations of young space scientists and engineers. CCMC resources are publicly available online, providing unprecedented global access to the largest collection of modern space science models (developed by the international research community). CCMC has revolutionized the way simulations are utilized in classrooms settings, student projects, and scientific labs and serves hundreds of educators, students and researchers every year. Another major CCMC asset is an expert space weather prototyping team primarily serving NASA's interplanetary space weather needs. Capitalizing on its unrivaled capabilities and experiences, the team provides in-depth space weather training to students and professionals worldwide, and offers an amazing opportunity for undergraduates to engage in real-time space weather monitoring, analysis, forecasting and research. In-house development of state-of-the-art space weather tools and applications provides exciting opportunities to students majoring in computer science and computer engineering fields to intern with the software engineers at the CCMC while also learning about the space weather from the NASA scientists.
Garnier, D. T.; Davis, M. S.; Mauel, M. E.; Kesner, J.
Reliable space weather predictions can be used to plan satellite operations, predict radio outages, and protect the electrical transmission grid. While direct observation of the solar corona and satellite measurements of the solar wind give warnings of possible subsequent geomagnetic activity, more accurate and reliable models of how solar fluxes affect the earth's space environment are needed. Recent development in laboratory magnetic dipoles have yielded well confined high-beta plasmas with intense energetic electron belts similar to magnetospheres. With plasma diagnostics spanning from global to small spatial scales and user-controlled experiments, these devices can be used to study current issues in space weather such as fast particle excitation and rapid depolarization events. In levitated dipole experiments, which remove the collisional loss along field lines that normally dominate laboratory dipole plasmas, slow radial convection processes can be observed. Thus, comparisons between laboratory plasmas and global convection models can be made.
Fok, Mei-Ching H.
Understanding the dynamics and variability of the radiation belts are of great scientific and space weather significance. A physics-based Radiation Belt Environment (RBE) model has been developed to simulate and predict the radiation particle intensities. The RBE model considers the influences from the solar wind, ring current and plasmasphere. It takes into account the particle drift in realistic, time-varying magnetic and electric field, and includes diffusive effects of wave-particle interactions with various wave modes in the magnetosphere. The RBE model has been used to perform event studies and real-time prediction of energetic electron fluxes. In this talk, we will describe the RBE model equation, inputs and capabilities. Recent advancement in space weather application and artificial radiation belt study will be discussed as well.
Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Maddox, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Berrios, D.; Pulkkinen, A.; Zheng, Y.; MacNeice, P. J.; Shim, J.; Takakishvili, A.; Chulaki, A.
The Community Coordinated Modeling center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. Space weather models and coupled model chains hosted at the CCMC range from the solar corona to the Earth's upper atmosphere. CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as a large number of modeling and data products tailored to address the space weather needs of NASA's robotic missions. The presentation will demonstrate the rapid progress towards development the system allowing using products derived from space weather models in applications associated with National Space Weather needs. The adaptable Integrated Space Weather Analysis (ISWA) System developed at CCMC for NASA-relevant space weather information combines forecasts based on advanced space weather models hosted at CCMC with concurrent space environment information. The system is also enabling post-impact analysis and flexible dissemination of space weather information.
The ESA ITT project (AO/1-6738/11/NL/AT) to develop Phase 1 of a Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre has the following objectives and scope: 1. The construction of a long term (~10 yrs) plan for the future development of a European virtual space weather modelling centre consisting of a new ‘open’ and distributed framework for the coupling of physics based models for space weather phenomena; 2. The assessment of model capabilities and the amount of work required to make them operational by integrating them in this framework and the identification of computing and networking requirements to do so. 3. The design of a system to enable models and other components to be installed locally or geographically distributed and the creation of a validation plan including a system of metrics for testing results. The consortium that took up this challenge involves: 1)the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (Prime Contractor, coordinator: Prof. S. Poedts); 2) the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB); 3) the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB); 4) the Von Karman Institute (VKI); 5) DH Consultancy (DHC); 6) Space Applications Services (SAS). The project started on May 14 2012, and will finish in May 2014. Thus, by the time of the meeting, both Phase 1A and Phase 1B (the development of the prototype) will be finished. The final report will be presented incl. the architecture decisions made, the framework, the current models integrated already as well as the model couplers installed. The prototype VSWMC will be demonstrated.
Barth, Janet L.
Space-based systems are developing into critical infrastructure to support the quality of life on Earth. Mission requirements along with rapidly evolving technologies have outpaced efforts to accommodate detrimental space environment impacts on systems. This chapter describes approaches to accommodate space climate and space weather impacts on systems and notes areas where gaps in model development limit our ability to prevent spacecraft anomalies.
Enhancing space weather education is important to space science endeavors. While participating in the Space Weather Research, Education and Development Initiative (SW REDI) Bootcamp and working as a Space Weather Analyst Intern, several innovative technologies and tools were integral to my learning and understanding of space weather analysis and forecasting. Two of the tools utilized in learning about space weather were the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA) and the Space Weather Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (DONKI). iSWA, a web-based dissemination system, hosts many state-of-the-art space weather models as well as real time space weather data from spacecraft such as Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Advanced Composition Explorer. As a customizable tool that operates in real-time while providing access also to historical data, iSWA proved essential in my understanding the drivers and impacts of space weather. DONKI was instrumental in accessing historical space weather events to understand the connections between solar phenomena and their effects on Earth environments. DONKI operates as a database of space weather events including linkages between causes and effects of space weather events. iSWA and DONKI are tools available also to the public. They not only enrich the space weather learning process but also allow researchers and model developers access to essential heliophysics and magnetospheric data.
Mauel, M. E.; Garnier, D.; Kesner, J.
Reliable space weather predictions can be used to plan satellite operations, predict radio outages, and protect the electrical transmission grid. While direct observation of the solar corona and satellite measurements of the solar wind give warnings of possible subsequent geomagnetic activity, more accurate and reliable models of how solar fluxes effect the earth's space environment are needed. The recent development in laboratory magnetic dipoles have yielded well confined high-beta plasmas with intense energetic electron belts similar to magnetospheres. With plasma diagnostics spanning from global to small spatial scales and user-controlled experiments, these devices can be used to study current issues in space weather such as fast particle excitation and rapid depolarization events. In levitated dipole experiments, which remove the collisional loss along field lines that normally dominate laboratory dipole plasmas, slow radial convection processes can be observed. We describe ongoing experiments and investigations that (i) control interchange mixing through application of vorticity injection, (ii) make whole-plasma, high-speed images of turbulent plasma dynamics, (iii) simulate nonlinear gyrokinetic dynamics of bounded driven dipole plasma, and (iv) compare laboratory plasma measurements and global convection models.; Photographs of the LDX and CTX Laboratory Magnetospheres. Trapped plasma and energetic particles are created and studied with a variety of imaging diagnostics. Shown to the right are multiple probes for simultaneous measurements of plasma structures and turbulent mixing.
Keller, L. P.; Berger, E. L.; Christoffersen, R.
Olivine is a major constituent of chondritic bodies and its response to space weathering processes likely dominates the optical properties of asteroid regoliths (e.g. S- and many C-type asteroids). Analyses of olivine in returned samples and laboratory experiments provide details and insights regarding the mechanisms and rates of space weathering. Analyses of olivine grains from lunar soils and asteroid Itokawa reveal that they display solar wind damaged rims that are typically not amorphized despite long surface exposure ages, which are inferred from solar flare track densities (up to 10 (sup 7 y)). The olivine damaged rim width rapidly approaches approximately 120 nm in approximately 10 (sup 6 y) and then reaches steady-state with longer exposure times. The damaged rims are nanocrystalline with high dislocation densities, but crystalline order exists up to the outermost exposed surface. Sparse nanophase Fe metal inclusions occur in the damaged rims and are believed to be produced during irradiation through preferential sputtering of oxygen from the rims. The observed space weathering effects in lunar and Itokawa olivine grains are difficult to reconcile with laboratory irradiation studies and our numerical models that indicate that olivine surfaces should readily blister and amorphize on relatively short time scales (less than 10 (sup 3 y)). These results suggest that it is not just the ion fluence alone, but other variable, the ion flux that controls the type and extent of irradiation damage that develops in olivine. This flux dependence argues for caution in extrapolating between high flux laboratory experiments and the natural case. Additional measurements, experiments, and modeling are required to resolve the discrepancies among the observations and calculations involving solar wind processing of olivine.
Bisi, M. M.; Lawrence, G.; Pidgeon, A.; Reid, S.; Hapgood, M. A.; Bogdanova, Y.; Byrne, J.; Marsh, M. S.; Jackson, D.; Gibbs, M.
The SOL-TERRA project is a collaboration between RHEA Tech, the Met Office, and RAL Space funded by the UK Space Agency. The goal of the SOL-TERRA project is to produce a Roadmap for a future coupled Sun-to-Earth operational space weather forecasting system covering domains from the Sun down to the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere and neutral atmosphere. The first stage of SOL-TERRA is underway and involves reviewing current models that could potentially contribute to such a system. Within a given domain, the various space weather models will be assessed how they could contribute to such a coupled system. This will be done both by reviewing peer reviewed papers, and via direct input from the model developers to provide further insight. Once the models have been reviewed then the optimal set of models for use in support of forecast-based SWE modelling will be selected, and a Roadmap for the implementation of an operational forecast-based SWE modelling framework will be prepared. The Roadmap will address the current modelling capability, knowledge gaps and further work required, and also the implementation and maintenance of the overall architecture and environment that the models will operate within. The SOL-TERRA project will engage with external stakeholders in order to ensure independently that the project remains on track to meet its original objectives. A group of key external stakeholders have been invited to provide their domain-specific expertise in reviewing the SOL-TERRA project at critical stages of Roadmap preparation; namely at the Mid-Term Review, and prior to submission of the Final Report. This stakeholder input will ensure that the SOL-TERRA Roadmap will be enhanced directly through the input of modellers and end-users. The overall goal of the SOL-TERRA project is to develop a Roadmap for an operational forecast-based SWE modelling framework with can be implemented within a larger subsequent activity. The SOL-TERRA project is supported within
The critical observations from STEREO and SDO will help provide accurate and timely space weather storm warnings, and will aid greatly in our efforts to protect the technologies we have become so d...
Parker, Linda Neergaard
Marshall Space Flight Center, along with its industry and academia neighbors, has a long history of space environment model development and testing. Space weather efforts include research, testing, model development, environment definition, anomaly investigation, and operational support. This presentation will highlight a few of the current space weather activities being performed at Marshall and through collaborative efforts with University of Alabama in Huntsville scientists.
Hesse, Michael; Berrios, David; Chulaki, Anna; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; MacNeice, Peter J.; Maddox, Mario; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre
The transition of space weather models or of information derived from space weather models to space weather forecasting is the last step of the chain from model development to model deployment in forecasting operations. As such, it is an extremely important element of the quest to increase our national capability to forecast and mitigate space weather hazards. It involves establishing customer requirements, and analyses of available models, which are, in principle, capable of delivering the required product. Models will have to be verified and validated prior to a selection of the best performing model. Further considerations include operational hardware, and the availability of data streams to drive the model. The final steps include the education of forecasters, and the implementation on gateway hardware prior to operational use. This presentation will provide a discussion of opportunities for rapid progress from the viewpoint of the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.
The Space Weather Research Center (SWRC), within the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), provides experimental research forecasts and analysis for NASA's robotic mission operators. Space weather conditions are monitored to provide advance warning and forecasts based on observations and modeling using the integrated Space Weather Analysis Network (iSWA). Space weather forecasters come from a variety of backgrounds, ranging from modelers to astrophysicists to undergraduate students. This presentation will discuss space weather operations and research from an undergraduate perspective. The Space Weather Research, Education, and Development Initiative (SW REDI) is the starting point for many undergraduate opportunities in space weather forecasting and research. Space weather analyst interns play an active role year-round as entry-level space weather analysts. Students develop the technical and professional skills to forecast space weather through a summer internship that includes a two week long space weather boot camp, mentorship, poster session, and research opportunities. My unique development of research projects includes studying high speed stream events as well as a study of 20 historic, high-impact solar energetic particle events. This unique opportunity to combine daily real-time analysis with related research prepares students for future careers in Heliophysics.
Yoon, KiChang; Kim, Jae-Hun; Kim, Young Yun; Kwon, Yongki; Wi, Gwan-sik
The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).
Xie, Hong; Ofman, Leon; Lawrence, Gareth
In this study, we present an innovative analytical method to determine the angular width and propagation orientation of halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The relation of CME actual speed with apparent speed and its components measured at different position angle has been investigated. The present work is based on the cone model proposed by Zhao et al. We have improved this model by: (1) eliminating the ambiguity via a new analytical approach, (2) using direct measurements of projection onto the plane of the sky (POS), and (3) determining the actual radial speeds from projection speeds at different position angles to clarify the uncertainty of projection speeds in previous empirical models. Our analytical approach allows us to use coronagraph data to determine accurately the geometrical features of POS projections, such as major axis, minor axis, and the displacement of the center of its projection, and to determine the angular width and orientation of a given halo CME. Our approach allows for the first time the determination of the actual CME speed, width, and source location by using coronagraph data quantitatively and consistently. The method greatly enhances the accuracy of the derived geometrical and kinematical properties of halo CMEs, and can be used to optimize Space Weather forecasts. The applied model predications are in good agreement with observations.
The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second CCMC activity is to support Space Weather forecasting at national Space Weather Forecasting Centers. This second activity involves model evaluations, model transitions to operations, and the development of draft Space Weather forecasting tools. This presentation will focus on the last element. Specifically, we will discuss present capabilities, and the potential to derive further tools. These capabilities will be interpreted in the context of a broad-based, bootstrapping activity for modern Space Weather forecasting.
Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Park, S.; Kim, Y. Y.; Wi, G.
The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).
The Community Coordinated l\\lodeling Center (CCMC) is a US multi-agency activity with a dual mission. With equal emphasis, CCMC strives to provide science support to the international space research community through the execution of advanced space plasma simulations, and it endeavors to support the space weather needs of the CS and partners. Space weather support involves a broad spectrum, from designing robust forecasting systems and transitioning them to forecasters, to providing space weather updates and forecasts to NASA's robotic mission operators. All of these activities have to rely on validation and verification of models and their products, so users and forecasters have the means to assign confidence levels to the space weather information. In this presentation, we provide an overview of space weather models resident at CCMC, as well as of validation and verification activities undertaken at CCMC or through the use of CCMC services.
Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Hesse, M.
The NASA Space Weather Center's primary objective is to provide the latest space weather information and forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and its partners and to bring space weather knowledge to the public. At the same time, the tools and services it possesses can be invaluable for research purposes. Here we show how our archive and real-time modeling of space weather events can aid research in a variety of ways, with different classification criteria. We will list and discuss major CME events, major geomagnetic storms, and major SEP events that occurred during the years 2010 - 2012. Highlights of major tools/resources will be provided.
AFRL-RV-PS- AFRL-RV-PS- TR-2015-0129 TR-2015-0129 DEVELOPMENT OF THE RICE CONVECTION MODEL AS A SPACE WEATHER TOOL Frank R. Toffoletto, et al...Development of the Rice Convection Model as a Space Weather Tool 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER FA9453-13-1-0222 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER... Convection Model (RCM) can provide a superior space-weather product. The work under this preliminary project consisted of a modest amount of code development
Glover, Alexi; Onsager, Terrance; Kuznetsova, Maria; Bingham, Suzy
We invite the space weather community to contribute to a discussion on the main themes of this PSW1 event, with the aim of identifying and prioritising key issues and formulating recommendations and guidelines for policy makers, stakeholders, and data and service providers. This event particularly encourages dialogue between modellers, application developers, service providers and users of space weather products and services in order to review the state of model and service validation activities, to build upon successes, to identify challenges, and to develop a strategy for continuous assessment of space weather predictive capabilities and tracing the improvement over time, as recommended in the COSPAR Space Weather Roadmap. We discuss space weather verification & validation needs for the current generation of activities under development and in planning globally, together with perspectives for modellers and scientific community to further participate in the space weather endeavour. All Assembly participants are welcome to participate in this PSW discussion session and all are invited to submit input for the discussion to the authors ahead of the Assembly. The discussion will take place in two parts at the start and end of the PSW1 event. It is intended that the outcome of these discussion sessions will be formulated as a panel position paper on metrics and validation needs for space weather models and services.
Glover, Alexi; Onsager, Terrance; Kuznetsova, Maria; Bingham, Suzy
We invite the space weather community to contribute to a discussion on the main themes of this PSW1 event, with the aim of identifying and prioritising key issues and formulating recommendations and guidelines for policy makers, stakeholders, and data and service providers. This event particularly encourages dialogue between modellers, application developers, service providers and users of space weather products and services in order to review the state of model and service validation activities, to build upon successes, to identify challenges, and to develop a strategy for continuous assessment of space weather predictive capabilities and tracing the improvement over time, as recommended in the COSPAR Space Weather Roadmap. We discuss space weather verification & validation needs for the current generation of activities under development and in planning globally, together with perspectives for modellers and scientific community to further participate in the space weather endeavour. All Assembly participants are welcome to participate in this PSW discussion session and all are invited to submit input for the discussion to the authors ahead of the Assembly. The discussion will take place in two parts at the start and end of the PSW1 event. It is intended that the outcome of these discussion sessions will be formulated as a panel position paper on metrics and validation needs for space weather models and services.
Daly, E. J.; Hilgers, A.
Spacecraft and payloads have become steadily more sophisticated and therefore more susceptible to space weather effects. ESA has long been active in applying models and tools to the problems associated with such effects on its spacecraft. In parallel, ESA and European agencies have built a highly successful solar-terrestrial physics capability. ESA is now investigating the marriage of these technological and scientific capabilities to address perceived user needs for space weather products and services. Two major ESA-sponsored studies are laying the groundwork for a possible operational European space weather service. The wide-ranging activities of ESA in the Space Weather/Space Environment domain are summarized and recent important examples of space weather concerns given.
Space weathering discussions have generally centered around soils but exposed rocks will also incur the effects of weathering. On the Moon, rocks make up only a very small percentage of the exposed surface and areas where rocks are exposed, like central peaks, are often among the least space weathered regions we find in remote sensing data. However, our studies of weathered Ap 17 rocks 76015 and 76237 show that significant amounts of weathering products can build up on rock surfaces. Because rocks have much longer surface lifetimes than an individual soil grain, and thus record a longer history of exposure, we can study these products to gain a deeper perspective on the weathering process and better assess the relative impo!1ance of various weathering components on the Moon. In contrast to the lunar case, on small asteroids, like Itokowa, rocks make up a large fraction of the exposed surface. Results from the Hayabusa spacecraft at Itokowa suggest that while the low gravity does not allow for the development of a mature regolith, weathering patinas can and do develop on rock surfaces, in fact, the rocky surfaces were seen to be darker and appear spectrally more weathered than regions with finer materials. To explore how weathering of asteroidal rocks may differ from lunar, a set of ordinary chondrite meteorites (H, L, and LL) which have been subjected to artificial space weathering by nanopulse laser were examined by TEM. NpFe(sup 0) bearing glasses were ubiquitous in both the naturally-weathered lunar and the artificially-weathered meteorite samples.
Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Glocer, Alex
There is a growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made toward the first-principles modeling of space weather events, and three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, thereby playing a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for the modern global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events with a Dst footprint comparable to the Carrington superstorm of September 1859 based on the estimate by Tsurutani et. al. (2003). Results are presented for a simulation run with "very extreme" constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated induced geoelectric field on the ground to such extreme driving conditions. The model setup is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event of Halloween storm October 2003 to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw additional guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model setup is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in ground-based conductor systems such as power transmission grids. Therefore, our ultimate goal is to explore the level of geoelectric fields that can be induced from an assumed storm of the reported magnitude, i.e., Dst˜=-1600 nT.
The University of Michigan offers a senior-undergraduate-level course entitled, "Space Weather Modeling," taken by all of the space weather concentration students in the Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Sciences department. This is the capstone course of our undergraduate series, using the foundational knowledge from the previous courses towards an integrative large-scale numerical modeling study. A fraction of the graduate students also take this course. Because the state-of-the-art modeling capabilities are well beyond what is possible in a single term of programming, this course uses available online model resources, in particular the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), a multi-agency facility hosted by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. Students learn not only how to use the codes, but also the various options of what equations to solve to model a specific region of space and the various numerical approaches for implementing the equations within a code. The course is project-based, consisting of multiple written reports and oral presentations, and the technical communication skills are an important component of the grading rubric. Students learn how to conduct a numerical modeling study by critiquing several space weather modeling journal articles, and then carry out their our studies with several of the available codes. In the end, they are familiarized with the available models to know the ranges of validity and applicability for a wide array of space weather applications.
Gallagher, D. L.
This workshop will focus on what space weather is about and its impact on society. An overall picture will be "painted" describing the Sun's influence through the solar wind on the near-Earth space environment, including the aurora, killer electrons at geosynchronous orbit, million ampere electric currents through the ionosphere and along magnetic field lines, and the generation of giga-Watts of natural radio waves. Reference material in the form of Internet sites will be provided so that teachers can discuss space weather in the classroom and enable students to learn more about this topic.
Fry, C. D.; Eccles, J. V.; Reich, J. P.
Marking a milestone in space weather forecasting, the Space Weather Modeling System (SWMS) successfully completed validation testing in advance of operational testing at Air Force Weather Agency’s primary space weather production center. This is the first coupling of stand-alone, physics-based space weather models that are currently in operations at AFWA supporting the warfighter. Significant development effort went into ensuring the component models were portable and scalable while maintaining consistent results across diverse high performance computing platforms. Coupling was accomplished under the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The coupled space weather models are the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 (HAFv2) solar wind model and GAIM1, the ionospheric forecast component of the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) model. The SWMS was developed by team members from AFWA, Explorations Physics International, Inc. (EXPI) and Space Environment Corporation (SEC). The successful development of the SWMS provides new capabilities beyond enabling extended lead-time, data-driven ionospheric forecasts. These include ingesting diverse data sets at higher resolution, incorporating denser computational grids at finer time steps, and performing probability-based ensemble forecasts. Work of the SWMS development team now focuses on implementing the ensemble-based probability forecast capability by feeding multiple scenarios of 5 days of solar wind forecasts to the GAIM1 model based on the variation of the input fields to the HAFv2 model. The ensemble SWMS (eSWMS) will provide the most-likely space weather scenario with uncertainty estimates for important forecast fields. The eSWMS will allow DoD mission planners to consider the effects of space weather on their systems with more advance warning than is currently possible. The payoff is enhanced, tailored support to the warfighter with improved capabilities, such as point-to-point HF propagation forecasts
Invited Talk - Space weather at other planets While discussion of space weather effects has so far largely been confined to the near-Earth environment, there are significant present and future applications to the locations beyond, and to other planets. Most obviously, perhaps, are the radiation hazards experienced by astronauts on the way to, and on the surface of, the Moon and Mars. Indeed, the environment experienced by planetary spacecraft in transit and at their destinations is of course critical to their design and successful operation. The case of forthcoming missions to Jupiter and Europa is an exreme example. Moreover, such craft can provide information which in turn increases our understanding of geospace. Indeed, space weather may be a significant factor in the habitability of other solar system and extrasolar planets, and the ability of life to travel between them.
Gehmeyr, M.; Baker, D. N.; Millward, G.; Odstrcil, D.
The Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) has developed three forecast models (FMs) for the Sun-Earth chain. They have been matured by various degrees toward the operational stage. The Sun-Earth FM suite comprises empirical and physical models: the Planetary Equivalent Amplitude (AP-FM), the Solar Wind (SW- FM), and the Geospace (GS-FM) models. We give a brief overview of these forecast models and touch briefly on the associated validation studies. We demonstrate the utility of the models: AP-FM supporting the operations of the AIM (Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere) mission soon after launch; SW-FM providing assistance with the interpretation of the STEREO beacon data; and GS-FM combining model and observed data to characterize the aurora borealis. We will then discuss space weather tools in a more general sense, point out where the current capabilities and shortcomings are, and conclude with a look forward to what areas need improvement to facilitate better real-time forecasts.
Minow, Josep I.; Edwards, David L.
Qualifying materials for use in the space environment is typically accomplished with laboratory exposures to simulated UV/EUV, atomic oxygen, and charged particle radiation environments with in-situ or subsequent measurements of material properties of interest to the particular application. Choice of environment exposure levels are derived from static design environments intended to represent either mean or extreme conditions that are anticipated to be encountered during a mission. The real space environment however is quite variable. Predictions of the on orbit performance of a material qualified to laboratory environments can be done using information on 'space weather' variations in the real environment. This presentation will first review the variability of space environments of concern for material degradation and then demonstrate techniques for using test data to predict material performance in a variety of space environments from low Earth orbit to interplanetary space using historical measurements and space weather models.
Hesse, Michael; Pulkkinen, Antti; Zheng, Yihua; Maddox, Marlo; Berrios, David; Taktakishvili, Sandro; Kuznetsova, Masha; Chulaki, Anna; Lee, Hyesook; Mullinix, Rick; Rastaetter, Lutz
Space research, and, consequently, space weather forecasting are immature disciplines. Scientific knowledge is accumulated frequently, which changes our understanding or how solar eruptions occur, and of how they impact targets near or on the Earth, or targets throughout the heliosphere. Along with continuous progress in understanding, space research and forecasting models are advancing rapidly in capability, often providing substantially increases in space weather value over time scales of less than a year. Furthermore, the majority of space environment information available today is, particularly in the solar and heliospheric domains, derived from research missions. An optimal forecasting environment needs to be flexible enough to benefit from this rapid development, and flexible enough to adapt to evolving data sources, many of which may also stem from non-US entities. This presentation will analyze the experiences obtained by developing and operating both a forecasting service for NASA, and an experimental forecasting system for Geomagnetically Induced Currents.
Berger, Thomas; Singer, Howard; Onsager, Terrance; Viereck, Rodney; Murtagh, William; Rutledge, Robert
We review the current activities in the civil operational space weather forecasting enterprise of the United States. The NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center is the nation's official source of space weather watches, warnings, and alerts, working with partners in the Air Force as well as international operational forecast services to provide predictions, data, and products on a large variety of space weather phenomena and impacts. In October 2015, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released the National Space Weather Strategy (NSWS) and associated Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) that define how the nation will better forecast, mitigate, and respond to an extreme space weather event. The SWAP defines actions involving multiple federal agencies and mandates coordination and collaboration with academia, the private sector, and international bodies to, among other things, develop and sustain an operational space weather observing system; develop and deploy new models of space weather impacts to critical infrastructure systems; define new mechanisms for the transition of research models to operations and to ensure that the research community is supported for, and has access to, operational model upgrade paths; and to enhance fundamental understanding of space weather through support of research models and observations. The SWAP will guide significant aspects of space weather operational and research activities for the next decade, with opportunities to revisit the strategy in the coming years through the auspices of the National Science and Technology Council.
Kazakhstan experimental complex is a center of experimental study of space weather. This complex is situated near Almaty, Kazakhstan and includes experimental setup for registration of cosmic ray intensity (neutron monitor) at altitude of 3340 m above sea level, geomagnetic observatory and setup for registration of solar flux density with frequency of 1 and 3 GHz with 1 second time resolution. Results of space environment monitoring in real time are accessible via Internet. This experimental information is used for space weather investigations and different cosmic ray effects. Almaty mountain cosmic ray station is one of the most suitable and sensitive stations for investigation and forecasting of the dangerous situations for satellites; for this reason Almaty cosmic ray station is included in the world-wide neutron monitor network for the real-time monitoring of the space weather conditions and European Database NMDB (www.nmdb.eu). All data are represented on the web-site of the Institute of Ionosphere (www.ionos.kz) in real time. Since July, 2006 the space environment prediction laboratory represents the forecast of geomagnetic activity every day on the same site (www.ionos.kz/?q=en/node/21).
Maddox, M. M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Zheng, Y.; Rastaetter, L.; Chulaki, A.; Pembroke, A. D.; Wiegand, C.; Mullinix, R.; Boblitt, J.; Mendoza, A. M. M.; Swindell, M. J., IV; Bakshi, S. S.; Mays, M. L.; Shim, J. S.; Hesse, M.; Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Taktakishvili, A.; MacNeice, P. J.
The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables, supports, and performs research and development for next generation space science and space weather models. The CCMC currently hosts a large and expanding collection of state-or-the-art, physics-based space weather models that have been developed by the international research community. There are many tools and services provided by the CCMC that are currently available world-wide, along with the ongoing development of new innovative systems and software for research, discovery, validation, visualization, and forecasting. Over the history of the CCMC's existence, there has been one constant engineering challenge - describing, managing, and disseminating data. To address the challenges that accompany an ever-expanding number of models to support, along with a growing catalog of simulation output - the CCMC is currently developing a flexible and extensible space weather data warehouse to support both internal and external systems and applications. This paper intends to chronicle the evolution and future of the CCMC's data infrastructure, and the current infrastructure re-engineering activities that seek to leverage existing community data model standards like SPASE and the IMPEx Simulation Data Model.
Kuznetsova, M.; Maddox, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Hesse, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Macneice, P.; Taktakishvili, A.; Berrios, D.; Chulaki, A.; Zheng, Y.; Mullinix, R.
Models are key elements of space weather forecasting. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) hosts a broad range of state-of-the-art space weather models and enables access to complex models through an unmatched automated web-based runs-on-request system. Model output comparisons with observational data carried out by a large number of CCMC users open an unprecedented mechanism for extensive model testing and broad community feedback on model performance. The CCMC also evaluates model's prediction ability as an unbiased broker and supports operational model selections. The CCMC is organizing and leading a series of community-wide projects aiming to evaluate the current state of space weather modeling, to address challenges of model-data comparisons, and to define metrics for various user s needs and requirements. Many of CCMC models are continuously running in real-time. Over the years the CCMC acquired the unique experience in developing and maintaining real-time systems. CCMC staff expertise and trusted relations with model owners enable to keep up to date with rapid advances in model development. The information gleaned from the real-time calculations is tailored to specific mission needs. Model forecasts combined with data streams from NASA and other missions are integrated into an innovative configurable data analysis and dissemination system (http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov) that is accessible world-wide. The talk will review the latest progress and discuss opportunities for addressing operational space weather needs in innovative and collaborative ways.
Gonzalez-Esparza, A.; De la Luz, V.; Mejia-Ambriz, J. C.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E.; Corona-Romero, P.; Gonzalez, L. X.
Recent modifications of the Civil Protection Law in Mexico include now specific mentions to space hazards and space weather phenomena. During the last few years, the UN has promoted international cooperation on Space Weather awareness, studies and monitoring. Internal and external conditions motivated the creation of a Space Weather Service in Mexico (SCIESMEX). The SCIESMEX (www.sciesmex.unam.mx) is operated by the Geophysics Institute at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). The UNAM has the experience of operating several critical national services, including the National Seismological Service (SSN); besides that has a well established scientific group with expertise in space physics and solar- terrestrial phenomena. The SCIESMEX is also related with the recent creation of the Mexican Space Agency (AEM). The project combines a network of different ground instruments covering solar, interplanetary, geomagnetic, and ionospheric observations. The SCIESMEX has already in operation computing infrastructure running the web application, a virtual observatory and a high performance computing server to run numerical models. SCIESMEX participates in the International Space Environment Services (ISES) and in the Inter-progamme Coordination Team on Space Weather (ICTSW) of the Word Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Phillips, Tony; Johnson, Sam; Koske-Phillips, Amelia; White, Michael; Yarborough, Amelia; Lamb, Aaron; Herbst, Anna; Molina, Ferris; Gilpin, Justin; Grah, Olivia; Perez, Ginger; Reid, Carson; Harvey, Joey; Schultz, Jamie
We have developed a "Space Weather Buoy" for measuring upper atmospheric radiation from cosmic rays and solar storms. The Buoy, which is carried to the stratosphere by helium balloons, is relatively inexpensive and uses off-the-shelf technology accessible to small colleges and high schools. Using this device, we have measured two Forbush Decreases and a small surge in atmospheric radiation during the St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm of March 2015.
Blewett, David T.; Denevi, Brett W.; Le Corre, Lucille; Reddy, Vishnu; Schröder, Stefan E.; Pieters, Carle M.; Tosi, Federico; Zambon, Francesca; De Sanctis, Maria Cristina; Ammannito, Eleonora; Roatsch, Thomas; Raymond, Carol A.; Russell, Christopher T.
Exposure to ion and micrometeoroid bombardment in the space environment causes physical and chemical changes in the surface of an airless planetary body. These changes, called space weathering, can strongly influence a surface's optical characteristics, and hence complicate interpretation of composition from reflectance spectroscopy. Prior work using data from the Dawn spacecraft (Pieters, C.M. et al. . Nature 491, 79-82) found that accumulation of nanophase metallic iron (npFe0), which is a key space-weathering product on the Moon, does not appear to be important on Vesta, and instead regolith evolution is dominated by mixing with carbonaceous chondrite (CC) material delivered by impacts. In order to gain further insight into the nature of space weathering on Vesta, we constructed model reflectance spectra using Hapke's radiative-transfer theory and used them as an aid to understanding multispectral observations obtained by Dawn's Framing Cameras (FC). The model spectra, for a howardite mineral assemblage, include both the effects of npFe0 and that of a mixed CC component. We found that a plot of the 438-nm/555-nm ratio vs. the 555-nm reflectance for the model spectra helps to separate the effects of lunar-style space weathering (LSSW) from those of CC-mixing. We then constructed ratio-reflectance pixel scatterplots using FC images for four areas of contrasting composition: a eucritic area at Vibidia crater, a diogenitic area near Antonia crater, olivine-bearing material within Bellicia crater, and a light mantle unit (referred to as an ;orange patch; in some previous studies, based on steep spectral slope in the visible) northeast of Oppia crater. In these four cases the observed spectral trends are those expected from CC-mixing, with no evidence for weathering dominated by production of npFe0. In order to survey a wider range of surfaces, we also defined a spectral parameter that is a function of the change in 438-nm/555-nm ratio and the 555-nm reflectance
Noble, S. K.; Keller, L. P.; Christoffersen, R.; Rahman, Z.
All materials exposed at the lunar surface undergo space weathering processes. On the Moon, boulders make up only a small percentage of the exposed surface, and areas where such rocks are exposed, like central peaks, are often among the least space weathered regions identified from remote sensing data. Yet space weathered surfaces (patina) are relatively common on returned rock samples, some of which directly sample the surface of larger boulders. Because, as witness plates to lunar space weathering, rocks and boulders experience longer exposure times compared to lunar soil grains, they allow us to develop a deeper perspective on the relative importance of various weathering processes as a function of time.
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has a long history of transitioning research data and models into operations and with the validation activities required. The first stage in this process involves demonstrating that the capability has sufficient value to customers to justify the cost needed to transition it and to run it continuously and reliably in operations. Once the overall value is demonstrated, a substantial effort is then required to develop the operational software from the research codes. The next stage is to implement and test the software and product generation on the operational computers. Finally, effort must be devoted to establishing long-term measures of performance, maintaining the software, and working with forecasters, customers, and researchers to improve over time the operational capabilities. This multi-stage process of identifying, transitioning, and improving operational space weather capabilities will be discussed using recent examples. Plans for future activities will also be described.
Maddox, M.; Rastatter, L.; Hesse, M.
The disparate nature of space weather model output provides many challenges with regards to the portability and reuse of not only the data itself, but also any tools that are developed for analysis and visualization. We are developing and implementing a comprehensive data format standardization methodology that allows heterogeneous model output data to be stored uniformly in any common science data format. We will discuss our approach to identifying core meta-data elements that can be used to supplement raw model output data, thus creating self-descriptive files. The meta-data should also contain information describing the simulation grid. This will ultimately assists in the development of efficient data access tools capable of extracting data at any given point and time. We will also discuss our experiences standardizing the output of two global magnetospheric models, and how we plan to apply similar procedures when standardizing the output of the solar, heliospheric, and ionospheric models that are also currently hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.
Glocer, A.; Toth, G.; Fok, M.; Gombosi, T.; Liemohn, M.
We have integrated the Fok radiation belt environment (RBE) model into the space weather modeling framework (SWMF). RBE is coupled to the global magnetohydrodynamics component (represented by the Block-Adaptive-Tree Solar-wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme, BATS-R-US, code) and the Ionosphere Electrodynamics component of the SWMF, following initial results using the Weimer empirical model for the ionospheric potential. The radiation belt (RB) model solves the convection-diffusion equation of the plasma in the energy range of 10 keV to a few MeV. In stand-alone mode RBE uses Tsyganenko's empirical models for the magnetic field, and Weimer's empirical model for the ionospheric potential. In the SWMF the BATS-R-US model provides the time dependent magnetic field by efficiently tracing the closed magnetic field-lines and passing the geometrical and field strength information to RBE at a regular cadence. The ionosphere electrodynamics component uses a two-dimensional vertical potential solver to provide new potential maps to the RBE model at regular intervals. We discuss the coupling algorithm and show some preliminary results with the coupled code. We run our newly coupled model for periods of steady solar wind conditions and compare our results to the RB model using an empirical magnetic field and potential model. We also simulate the RB for an active time period and find that there are substantial differences in the RB model results when changing either the magnetic field or the electric field, including the creation of an outer belt enhancement via rapid inward transport on the time scale of tens of minutes.
Space tourism, a concept which even a few years ago was perveived as science fantasy, is now a credible industry. Five individuals have paid up to $25 M to spend more than a week on the International Space Station. Several enterprises are working toward viable suborbital and orbital private space operations. while operational space weather support to human space flight has been the domain of government entities the emergence of space tourism now presents a new opportunity for the commercial space weather community. This article examines the space weather impact on crews and passengers of the future space tourism industry.
Fox, N. J.; Ryschkewitsch, M. G.; Merkin, V. G.; Stephens, G. K.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Barnes, R. J.; Anderson, B. J.; Paxton, L. J.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Kelly, M. A.; Berger, T. E.; Bonadonna, L. C. M. F.; Hesse, M.; Sharma, S.
National needs in the area of space weather informational and predictive tools are growing rapidly. Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socio-economic losses and impacts on our security. Future space exploration and most modern human endeavors will require major advances in physical understanding and improved transition of space research to operations. At present, only a small fraction of the latest research and development results from NASA, NOAA, NSF and DoD investments are being used to improve space weather forecasting and to develop operational tools. The power of modern research and space weather model development needs to be better utilized to enable comprehensive, timely, and accurate operational space weather tools. The mere production of space weather information is not sufficient to address the needs of those who are affected by space weather. A coordinated effort is required to support research-to-applications transition efforts and to develop the tools required those who rely on this information. In this presentation we will review the space weather system developed for the Van Allen Probes mission, together with other datasets, tools and models that have resulted from research by scientists at JHU/APL. We will look at how these, and results from future missions such as Solar Probe Plus, could be applied to support space weather applications in coordination with other community assets and capabilities.
Nymmik, Rikho; Kalegaev, Vladimir; Panasyuk, Mikhail
Radiation environment in the Earth magnetosphere can not be considered without taking into account the physical conditions in interplanetary space due to solar activity. Therefore, any realistic model of radiation inside the magnetosphere should take into account the physical condition determined by the models out of it. Since the flux of galactic and solar cosmic rays in the magnetosphere based on the model of radiation outside the magnetosphere with an indispensable view of the magnetic field of the Earth, due to changes in the solar wind, interplanetary shock waves and magnetic field. These factors are also influence the models of trapped radiation and circular current. Particularly, this report addressed to the methodological issues of generalization of experimental data to the level of computational models, which is unchanged properties of predicting all kinds of extreme situations. The complex of these problems has long been discussed under the pressure of public attention in connection with the problems of weather forecasting and hydrology. In the field of space weather the problem of operational models evaluation (so called "metric & validation" activity) is also of great interest now. In the light of changes in the factors of solar activity in the last minimum and in the solar cycle 24, the report discusses the problems of modeling particle fluxes outside the magnetosphere. Current status of near- Earth radiation modeling including radiation belt particles transport, acceleration and losses will be discussed as well from the experimental and theoretical viewpoint.
Nicholas, A. C.
The Naval Research Laboratory is actively pursuing enhancing the nation's space weather sensing capability. One aspect of this plan is the concept of flying Space Weather sensor suites on host spacecraft as secondary payloads. The emergence and advancement of the CubeSat spacecraft architecture has produced a viable platform for scientifically and operationally relevant Space Weather sensing. This talk will provide an overview of NRL's low size weight and power sensor technologies targeting Space Weather measurements. A summary of on-orbit results of past and current missions will be presented, as well as an overview of future flights that are manifested and potential constellation missions.
Törnros, M.; Ynnerman, A.; Emmart, C.; Berrios, D.; Harberts, R.
Linköping University, the American Museum of Natural History (AMNH), and the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center are collaborating on a new open source visualization software for astrovisualization. The CCMC is providing real-time and historical space weather data from the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA), including timely modeled coronal mass ejection events simulated by the Space Weather Research Center at NASA GSFC. Linköping University is developing a new modular visualization tool with multi-channel capabilities to support planetarium exhibits, displaying the real-time space weather data contextualized using fieldlines, volumetric visualization techniques, and planetary information. This collaboration aims to engage the public about space weather and real-time events at the AMNH. We present an overview of this collaboration and demo some of the capabilities.
Gopalswamy, Nat; Davila, Joseph M.
The International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is an international scientific program to understand the external drivers of space weather. The science and applications of space weather has been brought to prominence because of the rapid development of space based technology that is useful for all human beings. The ISWI program has its roots in the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) program that ran during 2007 - 2009. The primary objective of the ISWI program is to advance the space weather science by a combination of instrument deployment, analysis and interpretation of space weather data from the deployed instruments in conjunction with space data, and communicate the results to the public and students. Like the IHY, the ISWI will be a grass roots organization with key participation from national coordinators in cooperation with an international steering committee. This talk outlines the ISWI program including its organization and proposed activities.
Davila, Joseph M.
The International Heliophysical Year (IHY) provided a successful model for the deployment of arrays of small scientific instruments in new and scientifically interesting geographic locations, and outreach. The new International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is designed to build on this momentum to promote the observation, understanding, and prediction space weather phenomena, and to communicate the scientific results to the public.
Willman, Mark; Jedicke, Robert
We provide evidence of consistency between the dynamical evolution of main belt asteroids and their color evolution due to space weathering. The dynamical age of an asteroid's surface (Bottke, W.F., Durda, D.D., Nesvorný, D., Jedicke, R., Morbidelli, A., Vokrouhlický, D., Levison, H. . Icarus 175 (1), 111-140; Nesvorný, D., Jedicke, R., Whiteley, R.J., Ivezić, Ž. . Icarus 173, 132-152) is the time since its last catastrophic disruption event which is a function of the object's diameter. The age of an S-complex asteroid's surface may also be determined from its color using a space weathering model (e.g. Willman, M., Jedicke, R., Moskovitz, N., Nesvorný, D., Vokrouhlický, D., Mothé-Diniz, T. . Icarus 208, 758-772; Jedicke, R., Nesvorný, D., Whiteley, R.J., Ivezić, Ž., Jurić, M. . Nature 429, 275-277; Willman, M., Jedicke, R., Nesvorny, D., Moskovitz, N., Ivezić, Ž., Fevig, R. . Icarus 195, 663-673. We used a sample of 95 S-complex asteroids from SMASS and obtained their absolute magnitudes and u, g, r, i, z filter magnitudes from SDSS. The absolute magnitudes yield a size-derived age distribution. The u, g, r, i, z filter magnitudes lead to the principal component color which yields a color-derived age distribution by inverting our color-age relationship, an enhanced version of the 'dual τ' space weathering model of Willman et al. (2010). We fit the size-age distribution to the enhanced dual τ model and found characteristic weathering and gardening times of τw = 2050 ± 80 Myr and τg=4400-500+700Myr respectively. The fit also suggests an initial principal component color of -0.05 ± 0.01 for fresh asteroid surface with a maximum possible change of the probable color due to weathering of Δ PC = 1.34 ± 0.04. Our predicted color of fresh asteroid surface matches the color of fresh ordinary chondritic surface of PC1 = 0.17 ± 0.39.
Cade, William B.; Chan-Park, Christina
Although "space weather" is a fairly recent term, there is a rich history of similar terms being used beginning in the middle to late 1800s. "Solar meteorology," "magnetic weather," and "cosmic meteorology" all appeared during that time frame. The actual first appearance of space weather can be attributed to the publication Science News Letter in 1957 (with the first modern usage in 1959) and was possibly coined by the editor at the time, Watson Davis.
Eastwood, Jonathan P
The basic physics underpinning space weather is reviewed, beginning with a brief overview of the main causes of variability in the near-Earth space environment. Although many plasma phenomena contribute to space weather, one of the most important is magnetic reconnection, and recent cutting edge research in this field is reviewed. We then place this research in context by discussing a number of specific types of space weather in more detail. As society inexorably increases its dependence on space, the necessity of predicting and mitigating space weather will become ever more acute. This requires a deep understanding of the complexities inherent in the plasmas that fill space and has prompted the development of a new generation of scientific space missions at the international level.
Fox, N. J.; Lindstrom, K. L.; Ryschkewitsch, M. G.; Anderson, B. J.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Merkin, V. G.; Kelly, M. A.; Miller, E. S.; Sitnov, M. I.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Erlandson, R. E.; Barnes, R. J.; Paxton, L. J.; Sotirelis, T.; Stephens, G.; Comberiate, J.
National needs in the area of space weather informational and predictive tools are growing rapidly. Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socio-economic losses and impacts on our security. Future space exploration and most modern human endeavors will require major advances in physical understanding and improved transition of space research to operations. At present, only a small fraction of the latest research and development results from NASA, NOAA, NSF and DoD investments are being used to improve space weather forecasting and to develop operational tools. The power of modern research and space weather model development needs to be better utilized to enable comprehensive, timely, and accurate operational space weather tools. The mere production of space weather information is not sufficient to address the needs of those who are affected by space weather. A coordinated effort is required to support research-to-applications transition efforts and to develop the tools required those who rely on this information. In this presentation we will review datasets, tools and models that have resulted from research by scientists at JHU/APL, and examine how they could be applied to support space weather applications in coordination with other community assets and capabilities.
Ngwira, C. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.
Space weather is a major concern for modern day society because of its adverse impacts on technological infrastructure such as power grids, oil pipelines, and global navigation systems. Particularly, earth directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main drivers of the most extreme geomagnetic storms in the near-Earth space environment. On 23 July 2012, NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A) spacecraft observed in situ an extremely fast CME that traveled 0.96 astronomical units (~1 AU) in about 19 h. In our study, we use the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), a 3-D MHD based code, to perform simulations of this rare CME by considering STEREO-A in situ observations to represent the upstream L1 solar wind boundary conditions. The goal of the study is to investigate what would have happened if this Rare-type CME was Earth-bound. Global SWMF-generated ground geomagnetic field perturbations are used to compute the simulated induced geoelectric field at specific ground-based active magnetometer sites. Simulation results show that the July 23 CME would have produced ground effects comparable to previously observed extreme geomagnetic storms such as the Halloween 2003 storm. In addition, we discuss how this study compares to other independent studies on this same event.
Manobianco, John; Nutter, Paul
The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) conducted a year-long evaluation of NCEP's 29-km mesoscale Eta (meso-eta) weather prediction model in order to identify added value to forecast operations in support of the United States space program. The evaluation was stratified over warm and cool seasons and considered both objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective verification results generally indicate that meso-eta model point forecasts at selected stations exhibit minimal error growth in terms of RMS errors and are reasonably unbiased. Conversely, results from the subjective verification demonstrate that model forecasts of developing weather events such as thunderstorms, sea breezes, and cold fronts, are not always as accurate as implied by the seasonal error statistics. Sea-breeze case studies reveal that the model generates a dynamically-consistent thermally direct circulation over the Florida peninsula, although at a larger scale than observed. Thunderstorm verification reveals that the meso-eta model is capable of predicting areas of organized convection, particularly during the late afternoon hours but is not capable of forecasting individual thunderstorms. Verification of cold fronts during the cool season reveals that the model is capable of forecasting a majority of cold frontal passages through east central Florida to within +1-h of observed frontal passage.
Hendrix, A. R.; Vilas, F.
We present evidence suggesting that the spectral slope of airless bodies in the UV-visible wavelength range can be used as an indicator of exposure to space weathering. While space weathering generally produces a reddening of spectra in the visible-NIR spectral regions, it tends to result in a bluing of the UV-visible portion of the spectrum, and may in some cases produce a spectral reversal. The bluing effect may be detectable with smaller amounts of weathering than are necessary to detect the longer-wavelength weathering effects.
Hendrix, A. R.; Vilas, F.
We present evidence suggesting that the spectral slope of airless bodies in the UV-visible wavelength range can be used as an indicator of exposure to space weathering. While space weathering generally produces a reddening of spectra in the visible-NIR spectral regions, it tends to result in a bluing of the UV-visible portion of the spectrum, and may in some cases produce a spectral reversal. The bluing effect may be detectable with smaller amounts of weathering than are necessary to detect the longer-wavelength weathering effects.
Pieters, Carle M.; Noble, Sarah K.
Space weathering refers to alteration that occurs in the space environment with time. Lunar samples, and to some extent meteorites, have provided a benchmark for understanding the processes and products of space weathering. Lunar soils are derived principally from local materials but have accumulated a range of optically active opaque particles (OAOpq) that include nanophase metallic iron on/in rims formed on individual grains (imparting a red slope to visible and near-infrared reflectance) and larger iron particles (which darken across all wavelengths) such as are often found within the interior of recycled grains. Space weathering of other anhydrous silicate bodies, such as Mercury and some asteroids, produces different forms and relative abundance of OAOpq particles depending on the particular environment. If the development of OAOpq particles is minimized (such as at Vesta), contamination by exogenic material and regolith mixing become the dominant space weathering processes. Volatile-rich bodies and those composed of abundant hydrous minerals (dwarf planet Ceres, many dark asteroids, and outer solar system satellites) are affected by space weathering processes differently than the silicate bodies of the inner solar system. However, the space weathering products of these bodies are currently poorly understood and the physics and chemistry of space weathering processes in different environments are areas of active research.
Sojka, J. J.
The space age began in earnest on October 4, 1957 with the launch of Sputnik 1 and was fuelled for over a decade by very strong national societal concerns. Prior to this single event the adverse effects of space weather had been registered on telegraph lines as well as interference on early WWII radar systems, while for countless eons the beauty of space weather as mid-latitude auroral displays were much appreciated. These prior space weather impacts were in themselves only a low-level science puzzle pursued by a few dedicated researchers. The technology boost and innovation that the post Sputnik era generated has almost single handedly defined our present day societal technology infrastructure. During the decade following Neil's walk on the moon on July 21, 1969 an international thrust to understand the science of space, and its weather, was in progress. However, the search for scientific understand was parsed into independent "stove pipe" categories: The ionosphere-aeronomy, the magnetosphere, the heliosphere-sun. The present day scientific infrastructure of funding agencies, learned societies, and international organizations are still hampered by these 1960's logical divisions which today are outdated in the pursuit of understanding space weather. As this era of intensive and well funded scientific research progressed so did societies innovative uses for space technologies and space "spin-offs". Well over a decade ago leaders in technology, science, and the military realized that there was indeed an adverse side to space weather that with each passing year became more severe. In 1994 several U.S. agencies established the National Space Weather Program (NSWP) to focus scientific attention on the system wide issue of the adverse effects of space weather on society and its technologies. Indeed for the past two decades a significant fraction of the scientific community has actively engaged in understanding space weather and hence crossing the "stove
Maddox, Marlo; Zheng, Yihua; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Lee, Hyesook; Chulaki, Anna; Hesse, Michael; Mullinix, Richard; Berrios, David
The NASA GSFC Space Weather Center (http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov) is committed to providing forecasts, alerts, research, and educational support to address NASA's space weather needs - in addition to the needs of the general space weather community. We provide a host of services including spacecraft anomaly resolution, historical impact analysis, real-time monitoring and forecasting, custom space weather alerts and products, weekly summaries and reports, and most recently - video casts. There are many challenges in providing accurate descriptions of past, present, and expected space weather events - and the Space Weather Center at NASA GSFC employs several innovative solutions to provide access to a comprehensive collection of both observational data, as well as space weather model/simulation data. We'll describe the challenges we've faced with managing hundreds of data streams, running models in real-time, data storage, and data dissemination. We'll also highlight several systems and tools that are utilized by the Space Weather Center in our daily operations, all of which are available to the general community as well. These systems and services include a web-based application called the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov), two mobile space weather applications for both IOS and Android devices, an external API for web-service style access to data, google earth compatible data products, and a downloadable client-based visualization tool.
Biesecker, D. A.; Webb, D F.; SaintCyr, O. C.
The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) is first and foremost a solar and interplanetary research mission, with one of the natural applications being in the area of space weather. The obvious potential for space weather applications is so great that NOAA has worked to incorporate the real-time data into their forecast center as much as possible. A subset of the STEREO data will be continuously downlinked in a real-time broadcast mode, called the Space Weather Beacon. Within the research community there has been considerable interest in conducting space weather related research with STEREO. Some of this research is geared towards making an immediate impact while other work is still very much in the research domain. There are many areas where STEREO might contribute and we cannot predict where all the successes will come. Here we discuss how STEREO will contribute to space weather and many of the specific research projects proposed to address STEREO space weather issues. We also discuss some specific uses of the STEREO data in the NOAA Space Environment Center.
Nat, Gopalswamy; Joseph, Davila; Barbara, Thompson
The International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is a program of international cooperation aimed at understanding the external drivers of space weather. The ISWI program has its roots in the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) program that ran during 2007 - 2009 and will continue with those aspects that directly affect life on Earth. The primary objective of the ISWI program is to advance the space weather science by a combination of instrument deployment, analysis and interpretation of space weather data from the deployed instruments in conjunction with space data, and communicate the results to the public and students. Like the IHY, the ISWI will be a grass roots organization with key participation from national coordinators in cooperation with an international steering committee. This presentation outlines the ISWI program including its organizational aspects and proposed activities. The ISWI observatory deployment and outreach activities are highly complementary to the CAWSES II activities of SCOSTEP.
Mendoza, A. M.; Bakshi, S.; Berrios, D.; Chulaki, A.; Evans, R. M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Lee, H.; MacNeice, P. J.; Maddox, M. M.; Mays, M. L.; Mullinix, R. E.; Ngwira, C. M.; Patel, K.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Shim, J.; Taktakishvili, A.; Zheng, Y.
Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) was established to enhance basic solar terrestrial research and to aid in the development of models for specifying and forecasting conditions in the space environment. In achieving this goal, CCMC has developed and provides a set of innovative tools varying from: Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) web -based dissemination system for space weather information, Runs-On-Request System providing access to unique collection of state-of-the-art solar and space physics models (unmatched anywhere in the world), Advanced Online Visualization and Analysis tools for more accurate interpretation of model results, Standard Data formats for Simulation Data downloads, and recently Mobile apps (iPhone/Android) to view space weather data anywhere to the scientific community. The number of runs requested and the number of resulting scientific publications and presentations from the research community has not only been an indication of the broad scientific usage of the CCMC and effective participation by space scientists and researchers, but also guarantees active collaboration and coordination amongst the space weather research community. Arising from the course of CCMC activities, CCMC also supports community-wide model validation challenges and research focus group projects for a broad range of programs such as the multi-agency National Space Weather Program, NSF's CEDAR (Coupling, Energetics and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions), GEM (Geospace Environment Modeling) and Shine (Solar Heliospheric and INterplanetary Environment) programs. In addition to performing research and model development, CCMC also supports space science education by hosting summer students through local universities; through the provision of simulations in support of classroom programs such as Heliophysics Summer School (with student research contest) and CCMC Workshops; training next generation of junior scientists in space weather forecasting; and educating
Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.
Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.
Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Maddox, Marlo
With the addition of Space Weather Research Center (a sub-team within CCMC) in 2010 to address NASA’s own space weather needs, CCMC has become a unique entity that not only facilitates research through providing access to the state-of-the-art space science and space weather models, but also plays a critical role in providing unique space weather services to NASA robotic missions, developing innovative tools and transitioning research to operations via user feedback. With scientists, forecasters and software developers working together within one team, through close and direct connection with space weather customers and trusted relationship with model developers, CCMC is flexible, nimble and effective to meet customer needs. In this presentation, we highlight a few unique aspects of CCMC/SWRC’s space weather services, such as addressing space weather throughout the solar system, pushing the frontier of space weather forecasting via the ensemble approach, providing direct personnel and tool support for spacecraft anomaly resolution, prompting development of multi-purpose tools and knowledge bases, and educating and engaging the next generation of space weather scientists.
Owens, M J; Horbury, T S; Wicks, R T; McGregor, S L; Savani, N P; Xiong, M
Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind "noise," which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical "downscaling" of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme.
This report concentrates on dynamic probabilistic risk analysis of optical elements for complex characterization of damages using physical model of solid state lasers and predictable level of ionizing radiation and space weather. The following main subjects will be covered by our report: (a) solid-state laser model; (b) mathematical models for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment; and (c) software for modeling and prediction of ionizing radiation. A probabilistic risk assessment method for solid-state lasers is presented with consideration of some deterministic and stochastic factors. Probabilistic risk assessment is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in solid-state lasers for the purpose of cost-e®ectively improving their safety and performance. This method based on the Conditional Value-at-Risk measure (CVaR) and the expected loss exceeding Value-at-Risk (VaR). We propose to use a new dynamical-information approach for radiation damage risk assessment of laser elements by cosmic radiation. Our approach includes the following steps: laser modeling, modeling of ionizing radiation in°uences on laser elements, probabilistic risk assessment methods, and risk minimization. For computer simulation of damage processes at microscopic and macroscopic levels the following methods are used: () statistical; (b) dynamical; (c) optimization; (d) acceleration modeling, and (e) mathematical modeling of laser functioning. Mathematical models of space ionizing radiation in°uence on laser elements were developed for risk assessment in laser safety analysis. This is a so-called `black box' or `input-output' models, which seeks only to reproduce the behaviour of the system's output in response to changes in its inputs. The model inputs are radiation in°uences on laser systems and output parameters are dynamical characteristics of the solid laser. Algorithms and software for optimal structure and parameters of
Fok, Mei-Ching; Zheng, Yihua; Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, Maria; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Mays, Leila; Chulaki, Anna; Lee, Hyesook
The importance of space weather has been recognized world-wide. Our society depends increasingly on technological infrastructure, including the power grid as well as satellites used for communication and navigation. Such technologies, however, are vulnerable to space weather effects caused by the Sun's variability. NASA GSFC's Space Weather Center (SWC) (http://science.gsfc.nasa.gov//674/swx services/swx services.html) has developed space weather products/capabilities/services that not only respond to NASA's needs but also address broader interests by leveraging the latest scientific research results and state-of-the-art models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC: http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov). By combining forefront space weather science and models, employing an innovative and configurable dissemination system (iSWA.gsfc.nasa.gov), taking advantage of scientific expertise both in-house and from the broader community as well as fostering and actively participating in multilateral collaborations both nationally and internationally, NASA/GSFC space weather Center, as a sibling organization to CCMC, is poised to address NASA's space weather needs (and needs of various partners) and to help enhancing space weather forecasting capabilities collaboratively. With a large number of state-of-the-art physics-based models running in real-time covering the whole space weather domain, it offers predictive capabilities and a comprehensive view of space weather events throughout the solar system. In this paper, we will provide some highlights of our service products/capabilities. In particular, we will take the 23 January and the 27 January space weather events as examples to illustrate how we can use the iSWA system to track them in the interplanetary space and forecast their impacts.
Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.
Weather disturbances in the ionosphere-thermosphere system can have a detrimental effect on both ground-based and space-based systems. Because of this impact and because this field has matured, it is now appropriate to develop specification and forecast models, with the aim of eventually predicting the occurrence, duration, and intensity of weather effects. As part of the new National Space Weather Program, the CEDAR community will focus on science issues concerning space weather, and this tutorial/review is an expanded version of a tutorial presentation given at the recent CEDAR annual meeting. The tutorial/review provides a brief discussion of weather disturbances and features, the causes of weather, and the status of weather modeling. The features and disturbances discussed include plasma patches, boundary and auroral blobs, Sun-aligned polar cap arcs, the effects of traveling convection vortices and SAID events, the lifetime of density structures, sporadic-E and intermediate layers, spread F and equatorial plasma bubbles, geomagnetic storms and substorms, traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs), and the effects of tides and gravity waves propagating from the lower atmosphere. The tutorial/review is only intended to provide an overview of some of the important scientific issues concerning ionospheric-thermospheric weather, with the emphasis on the ionosphere. Tutorials on thermospheric and magnetospheric weather issues are given in companion papers.
Systematic evaluation of space environment models and tools and confidence assessment of space weather forecasting techniques and procedures are critical for development and further improvements of operational space weather prediction capabilities. Quantifying the confidence and predictive accuracy of model calculations is a key information needed for making high-consequence decisions. The approach to the validation, uncertainty assessment and to the format of the metrics is strongly dependent on specific applications and end user needs. There is a need to understand which aspects of spatial and temporal characteristicsof space environment parameters are the most important for specific impacts on technological and biological systems. The presentation will review progress in on-going coordinated model validation activities and metrics studies organized and supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. We will focus on tasks associated with model-data comparisons, such as appropriate metrics selection for specific applications, preparation of observational data, sensitivity analysis of model outputs to input parameters, boundary conditions, modeling assumptions, adjustable parameters. We will discuss ideas for community-wide initiatives to build upon successes and to address challenges of metrics and validation activities, to develop guidelines and procedures to trace improvements over time and to pave a path forward.
Petit, Alexis; Lemaitre, Anne
New tools are necessary to deal with more than hundred thousands of space debris, thus our aim is to develop software able to propagate numerous trajectories and manage collisions or fragmentations. Specifically in low orbits Earth, gravity and atmospheric drag are the two main forces that affect the dynamics of the artificial satellites or space debris. NIMASTEP, the local orbit propagator, initially designed for high altitudes, has been adapted to low altitude orbits. To study the future debris environment, we propose a suitable model of space weather and we compare three different atmospheric density models (Jacchia-Bowman 2008, DTM-2013, and TD-88) able to propagate with accuracy and efficiency a large population of space debris on long time scales. We compare the results in different altitudes and during the reentry regime; we show, with a ballistic coefficient constant, a trend to underestimate or overestimate the decrease of the semi-major axis, specifically during the periods of high solar activity. We parallelize our software and use the calculation power of a computing cluster, we propagate a huge cloud of debris and we show that its global evolution is in agreement with the observations on several years.
Bisi, M. M.; Gibbs, M.
Following on from the UK Government's placement of space weather on it's National Risk Register, in 2011, and the Royal Academy of Engineering's study into the impacts of a severe space weather event, the next piece of key evidence, to underpin future investment decisions, is understanding the socio-economic impact of space weather This poster outlines a study, funded by the UK Space Agency, which will assess the socio-economic cost of space weather, both severe events, such as 1989 & a modern day repeat of the Carrington storm and also the cost of day-to-day impacts. The study will go on to estimate the cost benefit of forecasting and also investigate options for an operational L5 spacecraft mission and knowledge exchange activities with the South African Space Agency. The findings from the initial space weather socio-economic literature review will be presented along with other findings to date and sets out the tasks for the remainder of this programme of work.
McFadden, L. A.
Space weathering is defined as any process that wears away and alters surfaces, here confined to small bodies in the Solar System. Mechanisms which possibly alter asteroid and comet surfaces include solar wind bombardment, UV radiation, cosmic ray bombardment, micrometeorite bombardment. These processes are likely to contribute to surface processes differently. For example, solar wind bombardment would be more important on a body closer to the Sun compared to a comet where cosmic ray bombardment might be a more significant weathering mechanism. How can we measure the effects of space weathering? A big problem is that we don't know the nature of the surface before it was weathered. We are in a new era in the study of surface processes on small bodies brought about by the availability of spatially resolved, color and spectral measurements of asteroids from Galileo and NEAR. What processes are active on which bodies? What physics controls surface processes in different regions of the solar system? How do processes differ on different bodies of different physical and chemical properties? What combinations of observable parameters best address the nature of surface processes? Are there alternative explanations for the observed parameters that have been attributed to space weathering? Should we retain the term, space weathering? How can our understanding of space weathering on the Moon help us understand it on asteroids and comets? Finally, we have to leave behind some presuppositions, one being that there is evidence of space weathering based on the fact that the optical properties of S-type asteroids differs from those of ordinary chondrites.
Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.
The Sun has long been understood as a source of energy for mankind. Only in the more modern times has it also been seen as a source of disturbances in the space environment of the Earth, but also of the other planets and the heliosphere. Space weather research had an early start in Europe with investigations of Birkeland, Fitzgerald and Lodge, ultimately leading to an understanding of geomagnetic storms and their relation to the Sun. Today, European space weather activities range from the study of the Sun, through the inner heliosphere, to the magnetosphere, ionosphere, atmosphere, down to ground level effects. We will give an overview of European space weather activities and focus on the chain of events from Sun to Earth.
Reiff, P. H.; Sumners, C.
Most of the public has no idea what Space Weather is, but a number of innovative programs, web sites, magazine articles, TV shows and planetarium shows have taken space weather from an unknown quantity to a much more visible field. This paper reviews new developments, including the new Space Weather journal, the very popular spaceweather.com website, new immersive planetarium shows that can go "on the road", and well-publicized Sun-Earth Day activities. Real-time data and reasonably accurate spaceweather forecasts are available from several websites, with many subscribers. Even the renaissance of amateur radio because of Homeland Security brings a new generation of learners to wonder what is going on in the Sun today. The NSF Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling has a dedicated team to reach both the public and a greater diversity of new scientists.
Noble, S. K.; Pieters, C. M.
Like the Moon, Mercury has no atmosphere to protect it from the harsh space environment and therefore it is expected that it will incur the effects of space weathering. These weathering processes are capable of both creating regolith and altering its optical properties. However, there are many important differences between the environments of Mercury and the Moon. These environmental differences will almost certainly affect the weathering processes as well as the products of those processes. It should be possible to observe the effects of these differences in Vis/NIR spectra of the type expected to be returned by MESSENGER. More importantly, understanding these weathering processes and their consequences is essential for evaluating the spectral data returned from MESSENGER and other missions in order to determine the mineralogy and the iron content of the Mercurian surface. Theoretical and experimental work has been undertaken in order to better understand these consequences.
Owens, M J; Horbury, T S; Wicks, R T; McGregor, S L; Savani, N P; Xiong, M
Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind “noise,” which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical “downscaling” of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme. Key Points Solar wind models must be downscaled in order to drive magnetospheric models Ensemble downscaling is more effective than deterministic downscaling The magnetosphere responds nonlinearly to small-scale solar wind fluctuations PMID:26213518
Agarwal Mishra, Rekha; Mishra, Rajesh Kumar
The concept of Space Weather was launched before a decade to describe the short-term variations in the different form of solar ac-tivity and their effect in the near Earth environ-ment. Space weather affects the Earth's atmos-phere in many ways and through various phe-nomena. Among them, geomagnetic storms and the variability of the galactic cosmic ray flux be-long to the most important ones as for the lower atmosphere. We have performed superposed ep-och analysis using hourly neutron monitor data for three different neutron-monitoring stations of different cut off rigidity as a measure of cosmic ray intensity. In the present study for superposed epoch analysis the time of occurrence of CMEs are defined as key time (zero or epoch hour/day). It is noteworthy that the use of cosmic ray data in space weather research plays a key role for its prediction. We have studied the cosmic ray, geo-magnetic and interplanetary plasma/field data to understand the physical mechanism responsible for Forbush decrease and geomagnetic storm that can be used as a signature to forecast space weather. Keywords: Space weather, cosmic ray, geomag-netic storm, forbush decrease
Kramer, Georgianna Y.; Combe, Jean-Philippe; Harnett, Erika M.; Hawke, Bernard Ray; Noble, Sarah K.; Blewett, David T.; McCord, Thomas B.; Giguere, Thomas A.
Analysis of spectra from the Clementine ultraviolet-visible and near-infrared cameras of small, immature craters and surface soils both on and adjacent to the lunar swirls at Marc Ingenii has yielded the following conclusions about space weathering at a magnetic anomaly. (l) Despite having spectral characteristics of immaturity, the lunar swirls arc not freshly exposed surfaces. (2) The swirl surfaces arc regions of retarded weathering, while immediately adjacent regions experience accelerated weathering, (3) Weathering in the off-swirl regions darkens and flattens the spectrum with little to no reddening, which suggests that the production of larger (greater than 40 nm) nanophase iron dominates in these locations as a result of charged particle sorting by the magnetic field. Preliminaty analysis of two other lunar swirl regions, Reiner Gamma and Mare Marginis, is consistent with our observations at Mare Ingenii. Our results indicate that sputtering/vapor deposition, implanted solar wind hydrogen, and agglutination share responsibility for creating the range in npFe(sup 0) particle sizes responsible for the spectral effects of space weathering.
Andrade, H.; Oliveira, S.; Alcoforado, M.-J.
Outdoor public spaces play an important role for the quality of life in urban areas. Their usage depends, among other factors, on the bioclimatic comfort of the users. Climate change can modify the uses of outdoor spaces, by changing temperature and rainfall patterns. Understanding the way people perceive the microclimatic conditions is an important tool to the design of more comfortable outdoor spaces and in anticipating future needs to cope with climate change impacts. The perception of bioclimatic comfort by users of two different outdoor spaces was studied in Lisbon. A survey of about one thousand inquires was carried out simultaneously with weather measurements (air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and solar and long wave radiation), during the years 2006 and 2007. The aim was to assess the relationships between weather variables, the individual characteristics of people (such as age and gender, among others) and their bioclimatic comfort. The perception of comfort was evaluated through the preference votes of the interviewees, which consisted on their answers concerning the desire to decrease, maintain or increase the values of the different weather parameters, in order to improve their comfort at the moment of the interview. The perception of the atmospheric conditions and of the bioclimatic comfort are highly influenced by subjective factors, which are difficult to integrate in a model. Nonetheless, the use of the multiple logistic regression allows the definition of patterns in the quantitative relation between preference votes and environmental and personal parameters. The thermal preference depends largely on the season and is associated with wind speed. Comfort in relation to wind depends not only on the speed but also on turbulence: a high variability in wind speed is generally perceived as uncomfortable. It was also found that the acceptability of warmer conditions is higher than for cooler conditions and the majority of people declared
Hesse, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Zheng, Y.; Maddox, M.; Kuznetsova, M.; Taktakishvil, A.; Rastaetter, L.
The Space Weather Laboratory (SWL) forms a focal point at GSFC for the generation of space weather tools and information. This information is based on data from space mission and ground observatories, as well as on forefront model calculations conducted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). CCMC works with the research community to bring to bear the power of communitydeveloped space science models on space weather problems. Data from primarily from NASA missions but also from NOAA and other partner agencies are combined with model results into a fully configurable space weather information display by means of the iSWA system. This information and iSWA form the basis for and SWL-provided service to NASA's robotic mission fleet, which includes forecasts, regular updates, and warnings. This service benefits from a strong partnership with NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group, and with the US Air Force Weather Agency. In this presentation, we provide a summary of space weather capabilities and services and we present an outlook into the future.
Porter, Hayden S.; Mayr, Hans G.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)
The Transfer Function Model (TFM) is a semi-analytical, linear model that is designed especially to describe thermospheric perturbations associated with magnetic storms and substorm. activity. It is a multi-constituent model (N2, O, He H, Ar) that accounts for wind induced diffusion, which significantly affects not only the composition and mass density but also the temperature and wind fields. Because the TFM adopts a semianalytic approach in which the geometry and temporal dependencies of the driving sources are removed through the use of height-integrated Green's functions, it provides physical insight into the essential properties of processes being considered, which are uncluttered by the accidental complexities that arise from particular source geometrie and time dependences. Extending from the ground to 700 km, the TFM eliminates spurious effects due to arbitrarily chosen boundary conditions. A database of transfer functions, computed only once, can be used to synthesize a wide range of spatial and temporal sources dependencies. The response synthesis can be performed quickly in real-time using only limited computing capabilities. These features make the TFM unique among global dynamical models. Given these desirable properties, a version of the TFM has been developed for personal computers (PC) using advanced platform-independent 3D visualization capabilities. We demonstrate the model capabilities with simulations for different auroral sources, including the response of ducted gravity waves modes that propagate around the globe. The thermospheric response is found to depend strongly on the spatial and temporal frequency spectra of the storm. Such varied behavior is difficult to describe in statistical empirical models. To improve the capability of space weather prediction, the TFM thus could be grafted naturally onto existing statistical models using data assimilation.
Gross, N. A.; Hughes, W.
This talk will outline the organization of a summer school designed to introduce young professions to a sub-discipline of geophysics. Through out the 10 year life time of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) the CISM Team has offered a two week summer school that introduces new graduate students and other interested professional to the fundamentals of space weather. The curriculum covers basic concepts in space physics, the hazards of space weather, and the utility of computer models of the space environment. Graduate students attend from both inside and outside CISM, from all the sub-disciplines involved in space weather (solar, heliosphere, geomagnetic, and aeronomy), and from across the nation and around the world. In addition, between 1/4 and 1/3 of the participants each year are professionals involved in space weather in some way, such as: forecasters from NOAA and the Air Force, Air Force satellite program directors, NASA specialists involved in astronaut radiation safety, and representatives from industries affected by space weather. The summer school has adopted modern pedagogy that has been used successfully at the undergraduate level. A typical daily schedule involves three morning lectures followed by an afternoon lab session. During the morning lectures, student interaction is encouraged using "Timeout to Think" questions and peer instruction, along with question cards for students to ask follow up questions. During the afternoon labs students, working in groups of four, answer thought provoking questions using results from simulations and observation data from a variety of source. Through the interactions with each other and the instructors, as well as social interactions during the two weeks, students network and form bonds that will last them through out their careers. We believe that this summer school can be used as a model for summer schools in a wide variety of disciplines.
Masongsong, E. V.; Glesener, G. B.; Angelopoulos, V.; Lilensten, J.; Bingley, L.
The Planeterrella can be used as an analog to help students visualize and understand the electromagnetic processes driving space weather that affect our daily lives. Solar storms and solar wind charged particles (plasma) cause "space weather" via their interaction with Earth's protective magnetic shield, the magnetosphere. The Planeterrella uses magnetized spheres in a vacuum chamber to demonstrate solar wind energy transfer to Earth and planets, with polar localization of aurora due to charged particles traveling along geomagnetic field lines. The Planeterrella provides a unique opportunity to experience and manipulate plasma, the dominant form of matter in our universe, yet seldom observable on Earth. Severe space weather events produce spectacular auroral displays as well as devastating consequences: radiation exposure to air and space travelers, prolonged radio blackouts, and damage to critical GPS and communications satellites. We will (1) discuss ways in which the Planeterrella may be most useful in classroom settings, including large lecture halls, laboratories, and small discussion sessions; (2) provide information on how instructors can produce their own Planeterrella for their courses; and (3) invite meeting attendees to engage in a discussion on how we might be able to improve on the current design of the Planeterrella, and how to reach students in more parts of the world.
The presentation is divided into two major components. First, I will give an overview of space weather phenomenon and their associated impacts. Then I will describe the comprehensive list of products and tools that NASA Space Weather Center has developed by leveraging more than a decade long modeling experience enabled by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and latest scientific research results from the broad science community. In addition, a summary of the space weather activities we have been engaged in and our operational experience will be provided.
Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.
The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help
Zheng, Y.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Maddox, M. M.
Space Weather Research Center (SWRC), part of the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), was established in 2010 to address emerging space weather needs of NASA robotic missions. By leveraging CCMC's modeling capabilities and through collaborations with different NASA centers, government agencies, educational institutions and multiple entities worldwide, SWRC provides research-based space weather forecasting, monitoring and anomaly support to NASA users. SWRC analyst team has also helped to identify limitations of current models and thus accelerate R2O-O2R process. In addition, the establishment of SWRC has added a new dimension to CCMC's education program. In this presentation, an overview of SWRC activities will be given. Future research and modeling needs will be discussed from the perspective of a space weather analyst.
observed within 6 hours of the F10.7 measurements during the years 1993 through 2010, the Spearman correlation coefficient , rs, for an empirical...model of F10.7 is found to be 0.98. Little change in the empirical model coefficients and correlations were found between the first and second 9 year...field and selected EUV/FUV spectral bands. Pearson correlation coefficient values of 0.99, 0.99, and 0.98 are found for 1 day, 3 day, and 7 day
Murata, Ken T.; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Watari, Shinichi; Shinagawa, Hiroyuki; Ishii, Mamoru
NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar
The possibility that solar activity and variations in the Earth's magnetic field may affect human health has been debated for many decades but is still a "scientific topic" in its infancy. By learning whether and, if so, how much the Earth's space weather can influence the daily health of people will be of practical importance. Knowing whether human genetics, include regulating factors that take into account fluctuations of the Earth's magnetic field and solar disturbances, indeed exist will also benefit future interplanetary space travelers. Because the atmospheres on other planets are different from ours, as well as their interaction with the space environment, one may ask whether we are equipped with the genetics necessary to take this variability into account. The goal of this presentation is to define what is meant by space weather as a health risk and identify the long-term socio-economic effects on society that such health risks would have. Identifying the physical links between space weather sources and different effects on human health, as well as the parameters (direct and indirect) to be monitored, the potential for such a cross-disciplinary study will be invaluable, for scientists and medical doctors, as well as for engineers.
Aschwanden, M. J. 2005, Physics of the Solar Corona . An Introduction with Problems and Solutions (2nd edition), ed. Aschwanden, M. J. Balasubramaniam, K...AFRL-OSR-VA-TR-2013-0020 Automatic Recognition of Solar Features for Developing Data Driven Prediction Models of Solar Activity...Automatic Recognition of Solar Features for Developing Data Driven Prediction Models of Solar Activity and Space Weather 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER FA9550-09
Power transmission lines above the ground, cables and pipelines in the ground and under the sea, and in general all man-made long grounded conductors are exposed to the variations of the natural electromagnetic field. The resulting currents in the networks (commonly named geomagnetically induced currents, GIC), are produced by the conductive and/or inductive coupling and can compromise or even disrupt system operations and, in extreme cases, cause power blackouts, railway signalling mis-operation, or interfere with pipeline corrosion protection systems. To properly model the GIC in order to mitigate their impacts it is necessary to know the frequency dependence of the response of these systems to the geomagnetic variations which naturally span a wide frequency range. For that, the general equations of the electromagnetic induction in a multi-layered infinitely long cylinder (representing cable, power line wire, rail or pipeline) embedded in uniform media have been solved utilising methods widely used in geophysics. The derived electromagnetic fields and currents include the effects of the electromagnetic properties of each layer and of the different types of the surrounding media. This exact solution then has been used to examine the electromagnetic response of particular samples of long conducting structures to the external electromagnetic wave for a wide range of frequencies. Because the exact solution has a rather complicated structure, simple approximate analytical formulas have been proposed, analysed and compared with the results from the exact model. These approximate formulas show good coincidence in the frequency range spanning from geomagnetic storms (less than mHz) to pulsations (mHz to Hz) to atmospherics (kHz) and above, and can be recommended for use in space weather applications.
Hathaway, David H.
Four hundred years ago this year the telescope was first used for astronomical observations. Within a year, Galileo in Italy and Harriot in England reported seeing spots on the surface of the Sun. Yet, it took over 230 years of observations before a Swiss amateur astronomer noticed that the sunspots increased and decreased in number over a period of about 11 years. Within 15 years of this discovery of the sunspot cycle astronomers made the first observations of a flare on the surface of the Sun. In the 150 years since that discovery we have learned much about sunspots, the sunspot cycle, and the Sun s explosive events - solar flares, prominence eruptions and coronal mass ejections that usually accompany the sunspots. These events produce what is called Space Weather. The conditions in space are dramatically affected by these events. Space Weather can damage our satellites, harm our astronauts, and affect our lives here on the surface of planet Earth. Long term changes in the sunspot cycle have been linked to changes in our climate as well. In this public lecture I will give an introduction to sunspots, the sunspot cycle, space weather, and the possible impact of solar variability on our climate.
Lanzerotti, L. J.
There have been revolutionary advances in electrical technologies over the last 160 years. The historical record demonstrates that space weather processes have often provided surprises in the implementation and operation of many of these technologies. The historical record also demonstrates that as the complexity of systems increase, including their interconnectedness and interoperability, they can become more susceptible to space weather effects. An engineering goal, beginning during the decades following the 1859 Carrington event, has been to attempt to forecast solar-produced disturbances that could affect technical systems, be they long grounded conductor-based or radio-based or required for exploration, or the increasingly complex systems immersed in the space environment itself. Forecasting of space weather events involves both frontier measurements and models to address engineering requirements, and industrial and governmental policies that encourage and permit creativity and entrepreneurship. While analogies of space weather forecasting to terrestrial weather forecasting are frequently made, and while many of the analogies are valid, there are also important differences. This presentation will provide some historical perspectives on the forecast problem, a personal assessment of current status of several areas including important policy issues, and a look into the not-too-distant future.
Welling, Daniel T; Jordanova, Vania K; Zaharia, Sorin G; Toth, Gabor
The Ring current Atmosphere interaction Model with Self-Consistently calculated 3D Magnetic field (RAM-SCB) has been used to successfully study inner magnetosphere dynamics during different solar wind and magnetosphere conditions. Recently, one way coupling of RAM-SCB with the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) has been achieved to replace all data or empirical inputs with those obtained through first-principles-based codes: magnetic field and plasma flux outer boundary conditions are provided by the Block Adaptive Tree Solar wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) MHO code, convection electric field is provided by the Ridley Ionosphere Model (RIM), and ion composition is provided by the Polar Wind Outflow Model (PWOM) combined with a multi-species MHO approach. These advances, though creating a powerful inner magnetosphere virtual laboratory, neglect the important mechanisms through which the ring current feeds back into the whole system, primarily the stretching of the magnetic field lines and shielding of the convection electric field through strong region two Field Aligned Currents (FACs). In turn, changing the magnetosphere in this way changes the evolution of the ring current. To address this shortcoming, the coupling has been expanded to include feedback from RAM-SCB to the other coupled codes: region two FACs are returned to the RIM while total plasma pressure is used to nudge the MHO solution towards the RAMSCB values. The impacts of the two way coupling are evaluated on three levels: the global magnetospheric level, focusing on the impact on the ionosphere and the shape of the magnetosphere, the regional level, examining the impact on the development of the ring current in terms of energy density, anisotropy, and plasma distribution, and the local level to compare the new results to in-situ measurements of magnetic and electric field and plasma. The results will also be compared to past simulations using the one way coupling and no coupling
Kirsch, Peter; Isles, John; Burge, Christina
Space weather describes changes in the near-Earth space environment, it includes the monitoring of magnetic fields, plasma, radiation and other matter. Ejections of plasma from the Sun and magnetic storms at the Earth can increase the number of high energy particles trapped in the Earth's magnetic field; these events can present risks and hazards to space-borne instrumentation and personnel. Improved knowledge of space weather processes acquired through monitoring via both satellite and ground based instruments and related collaborative research projects (European Union Framework 7 - SPACECAST) has allowed the further development of forecasting models such as the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Radiation Belt model. A system is being developed which enables real-time access to a space weather forecast service. This service will provide a 3-hourly forward look, updated hourly. To enable this forecast, systems are in place to gather, in real-time, ancillary data required for input into the BAS model, in particular data from the GOES satellite instruments. Auxiliary information from other satellites (e.g. ACE) and ground based magnetometers are also gathered and presented to assist in the interpretation of current space weather activity. BAS is working in collaboration with satellite operators and other interested parties to provide an interface which will inform them, in a timely fashion, of events that may require mitigating action to prevent possible extensive (and costly) effects to, for example, communication services. Data can be obtained via a web service, or viewed directly via a browser interface. In addition, it is anticipated that a post-event analysis suite be available, enabling the more detailed view of recent and past events and the possibility of running the model to "replay" periods of space weather history.
Zhengm Y.; Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Maddox, M.; Taktakishvili, A.; Berrios, D.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Macneice, P.; Mays, L.; Mendoza, A. M.; Mullinix, R.
In this presentation, we provide updates on CCMC modeling activities, CCMC metrics and validation studies, and other CCMC efforts. In addition, an overview of GSFC Space Weather Services (a sibling organization to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) and its products/capabilities will be given. We show how some of the research grade models, if running in an operational mode, can help address NASA's space weather needs by providing forecasting/now casting capabilities of significant space weather events throughout the solar system.
Lanzerotti, Louis J.
Journal Citation Reports, published by Thomson Scientific (http://scientific.thomson.com/isi/), has issued its first impact factor for Space Weather. It is 1.610. I consider this number to be very good, strongly validating the impact that Space Weather has already made in its short life within the community of space weather professionals.
Ephemeral Brightening,” 2nd ATST â€“ East Workshop In Solar Physics: Magnetic Fields From The Photosphere To The Corona , Washington D.C., Mar 2012. [6...AFRL-RV-PS- AFRL-RV-PS- TR-2012-0133 TR-2012-0133 AUTOMATIC RECOGNITION OF SOLAR FEATURES FOR DEVELOPING DATA DRIVEN PREDICTION MODELS OF... SOLAR ACTIVITY AND SPACE WEATHER Jason Jackiewicz New Mexico State University Department of Astronomy PO Box 30001, MSC 4500 Las
Rastaetter, L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Toth, G.; Raeder, J.; Wiltberger, M. J.
As part to the model validation efforts performed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), a Research-to-Operation (R2O) modeling challenge was started in 2010 to investigate the performance of first-principles and statistical models of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system to predict magnetic disturbances that can trigger geomagnetically induced currents. These models have to be able to run in real-time on a small-sized computer cluster in order to be able to support space weather operations. The outputs of the models are the horizontal magnetic perturbations ("delta-BH") at a given list of magnetometer stations that cover the high, middle and low latitudes. The "R2O challenge" is a continuation of the 2008 GEM challenge and involves the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), the OpenGGCM and the Lyon Fedder Mobarry (LFM) models of the global magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the Weimer and Weigel delta-BH specification models. These 5 models have been run for 6 events of at least a day's length that include 2 strong storms, 3 intermediate sized storms and one weak event. We compared model outputs with 12 magnetometers that were selected for the original 2008 GEM challenge. In this paper we describe the calculation of the delta-BH values for the magnetosphere-ionosphere models that include currents in the ionosphere, field-aligned currents and the magnetosphere portions of the simulations. To validate the calculations performed at CCMC we compared our results to delta-BH computed during run-time by the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) model. We present the role and intensity of the contributions to the delta-BH signal coming from the three current systems. The evaluation of the model results is based on an event-based metric using counts of how often the observed or modeled time derivative of delta-BH ("dBH/dt") exceeds a threshold at least once in each of the time windows that cover the storm events. The resulting contingency table (number of
Mertens, C. J.; Kress, B. T.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Tobiska, W.; Xu, X.
The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a prototype operational model for predicting commercial aircraft radiation exposure from galactic and solar cosmic rays. NAIRAS predictions are currently streaming live from the project's public website, and the exposure rate nowcast is also available on the SpaceWx smartphone app for iPhone, IPad, and Android. Cosmic rays are the primary source of human exposure to high linear energy transfer radiation at aircraft altitudes, which increases the risk of cancer and other adverse health effects. Thus, the NAIRAS model addresses an important national need with broad societal, public health and economic benefits. The processes responsible for the variability in the solar wind, interplanetary magnetic field, solar energetic particle spectrum, and the dynamical response of the magnetosphere to these space environment inputs, strongly influence the composition and energy distribution of the atmospheric ionizing radiation field. During the development of the NAIRAS model, new science questions were identified that must be addressed in order to obtain a more reliable and robust operational model of atmospheric radiation exposure. Addressing these science questions require improvements in both space weather modeling and observations. The focus of this talk is to present these science questions, the proposed methodologies for addressing these science questions, and the anticipated improvements to the operational predictions of atmospheric radiation exposure. The overarching goal of this work is to provide a decision support tool for the aviation industry that will enable an optimal balance to be achieved between minimizing health risks to passengers and aircrew while simultaneously minimizing costs to the airline companies.
Gadimova, S. H.; Haubold, H. J.
Globally there is growing interest in better unders tanding solar-terrestrial interactions, particularly patterns and trends in space weather. This is not only for scientific reasons, but also because the reliable operation of ground-based and space-based assets and infrastructures is increasingly dependent on their robustness against the detrimental effects of space weather. Consequently, in 2009, the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) proposed the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI), as a follow-up activity to the International Heliophysical Year 2007 (IHY2007), to be implemented under a three-year workplan from 2010 to 2012 (UNGA Document, A/64/20). All achievements of international cooperation and coordination for ISWI, including instrumentation, data analysis, modelling, education, training and public outreach, are made a vailable through the ISWI Newsletter and the ISWI Website (http://www.iswi-secretariat.org/). Since the last solar maximum in 2000, societal dependence on global navigation satellite system (GNSS) has increased substantially. This situation has brought increasing attention to the subject of space weather and its effects on GNSS systems and users. Results concerning the impact of space weather on GNSS are made available at the Information Portal (www.unoosa.org) of the International Committee on Global Navigati on Satellite Systems (ICG). This paper briefly reviews the curre nt status of ISWI with regard to GNSS.
Mansour, Nagi N.; Wray, Alan A.; Mehrotra, Piyush; Henney, Carl; Arge, Nick; Godinez, H.; Manchester, Ward; Koller, J.; Kosovichev, A.; Scherrer, P.; Zhao, J.; Stein, R.; Duvall, T.; Fan, Y.
The Sun lies at the center of space weather and is the source of its variability. The primary input to coronal and solar wind models is the activity of the magnetic field in the solar photosphere. Recent advancements in solar observations and numerical simulations provide a basis for developing physics-based models for the dynamics of the magnetic field from the deep convection zone of the Sun to the corona with the goal of providing robust near real-time boundary conditions at the base of space weather forecast models. The goal is to develop new strategic capabilities that enable characterization and prediction of the magnetic field structure and flow dynamics of the Sun by assimilating data from helioseismology and magnetic field observations into physics-based realistic magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations. The integration of first-principle modeling of solar magnetism and flow dynamics with real-time observational data via advanced data assimilation methods is a new, transformative step in space weather research and prediction. This approach will substantially enhance an existing model of magnetic flux distribution and transport developed by the Air Force Research Lab. The development plan is to use the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to develop Coupled Models for Emerging flux Simulations (CMES) that couples three existing models: (1) an MHD formulation with the anelastic approximation to simulate the deep convection zone (FSAM code), (2) an MHD formulation with full compressible Navier-Stokes equations and a detailed description of radiative transfer and thermodynamics to simulate near-surface convection and the photosphere (Stagger code), and (3) an MHD formulation with full, compressible Navier-Stokes equations and an approximate description of radiative transfer and heating to simulate the corona (Module in BATS-R-US). CMES will enable simulations of the emergence of magnetic structures from the deep convection zone to the corona. Finally, a plan
Eccles, V.; Sojka, J.; Rice, D.; Hunsucker, R. D.
A Data-Driven D-region (DDDR) model has been created to ingest real-time geophysical data streams into a D-region electron density model for improved determinations of D-region specification with respect to HF propagation and absorption characteristics. The model is based on the disturbed D-region model of Swider and Foley ["Steady-State Multi-Ion Disturbed D-Region Model", AFGL-TR-78-0155, June 1978] for quick calculation of the global electron density profile from 60 to 100 km altitude. The model is driven by geophysical indices and ingests x-ray observations and solar wind particle observations (NOAA/GOES 12 satellite) into ionization drivers to the weather-sensitive D region model. The DDDR model and the Ionospheric Forecast Model (IFM) are run for the time period of May 25 to June 25 of 2003 and used to calculate HF signal propagation and strength from WWV, WWVH, and CHU standard time-frequency stations to the HF monitoring stations of the HF Investigation and D region Ionosphere Variation Experiment (HIDAVE). The monitoring sites are at Klamath Falls, OR and Bear Lake Observatory, UT. Day-to-day trends in HF absorption are examined in the data-model comparison as well as the D region response to solar flares from Class C to Class X.
The term space weather refers to conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and that can affect human life and health. Our modern hi-tech society has become increasingly vulnerable to disturbances from outside the Earth system, in particular to those initiated by explosive events on the Sun: Flares release flashes of radiation that can heat up the terrestrial atmosphere such that satellites are slowed down and drop into lower orbits, solar energetic particles accelerated to near-relativistic energies may endanger astronauts traveling through interplanetary space, and coronal mass ejections are gigantic clouds of ionized gas ejected into interplanetary space that after a few hours or days may hit the Earth and cause geomagnetic storms. In this review, I describe the several chains of actions originating in our parent star, the Sun, that affect Earth, with particular attention to the solar phenomena and the subsequent effects in interplanetary space.
Pieters, C. M.; Blewett, D. T.; Hiroi, T.; Marchi, S.; McFadden, L. A.; Noble, S. K.; De Sanctis, M. C.; Taylor, L. A.; Reddy, V.
Space weathering refers to an array of processes that measurably alter the character of surfaces that are exposed to the space environment with time. Important observations and constraints come from integration of ground truth sample information and remotely sensed data for the surface. Currently, such combined sample and remote data are available for the Moon, a few near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), and Vesta. Although common processes exist on every planetary body visited, the character of surface alteration by space weathering on airless bodies is very dependent on the particular space environment and the geology and composition of the host. For the Moon, lunar samples have provided a direct link between exposure to the space environment and the development and accumulation of nanophase reduced iron (npFe^0) on soil grains . The optical properties of npFe^0 are well defined experimentally . The resulting effects on lunar materials include reduction of diagnostic absorption bands, prominence of a red-sloped near-infrared (NIR) continuum, and lower albedo . For Eros and Hyabusa, two NEAs visited by spacecraft, similar, but less pronounced optical effects are observed . The in situ Eros measurements and returned Hyabusa samples confirm both bodies are ordinary chondritic in composition despite the optical alteration of their surface . The main-belt proto-planet Vesta has long been associated with HED basaltic achondrite meteorites . Data from Dawn reveal an anti-correlation between mineral band strength and albedo often observed around fresh craters. However, no association is seen with NIR continuum slope implying little development of significant npFe^0 . Several physical and compositional reasons that hinder npFe^0 creation on Vesta are now recognized; alteration processes are instead more linked with dispersal of opaques and regolith mixing processes [7, 8]. Space weathering and evolution of the optical properties of regolith on airless bodies
Kaplan, M. L.; Zack, J. W.; Wong, V. C.; Coats, G. D.
A nested-grid mesoscale atmospheric simulation system (MASS) is tested over Florida for the case of intense seabreeze-induced convection. The goal of this modeling system is to provide real-time aviation weather support which is designed to fit local terminal operations such as those supporting NASA's STS. Results from a 58 km and a 14.5 km nested-grid simulation show that this version of the MASS is capable of simulating many of the basic characteristics of convective complexes during periods of relatively weak synoptic scale flow regimes. However, it is noted that extensive development work is required with nested-grid cumulus and planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes before many of the meso-beta scale features such as thunderstorm downdraft-produced bubble high pressure centers can be accurately simulated. After these schemes are properly tuned, MASS can be utilized to initialize microscale modeling systems.
Legett, C., IV; Glotch, T. D.; Lucey, P. G.
Space weathering is a diverse set of processes that occur on the surfaces of airless bodies due to exposure to the space environment. One of the effects of space weathering is the generation of nanophase iron particles in glassy rims on mineral grains due to sputtering of iron-bearing minerals. These particles have a size-dependent effect on visible and near infrared (VNIR) reflectance spectra with smaller diameter particles (< 50 nm) causing both reddening and darkening of the spectra with respect to unweathered material (Britt-Pieters particle behavior), while larger particles (> 300 nm) darken without reddening. Between these two sizes, a gradual shift between these two behaviors occurs. In this work, we present results from the Multiple Sphere T-Matrix (MSTM) scattering model in combination with Hapke theory to explore the particle size and iron content parameter spaces with respect to VNIR (700-1700 nm) spectral slope. Previous work has shown that the MSTM-Hapke hybrid model offers improvements over Mie-Hapke models. Virtual particles are constructed out of an arbitrary number of spheres, and each sphere is assigned a refractive index and extinction coefficient for each wavelength of interest. The model then directly solves Maxwell's Equations at every wave-particle interface to predict the scattering, extinction and absorption efficiencies. These are then put into a simplified Hapke bidirectional reflectance model that yields a predicted reflectance. Preliminary results show an area of maximum slopes for iron particle diameters < 80 nm and iron concentrations of ~1-10wt% in an amorphous silica matrix. Further model runs are planned to better refine the extent of this region. Companion laboratory work using mixtures of powdered aerogel and nanophase iron particles provides a point of comparison to modeling efforts. The effects on reflectance and emissivity values due to particle size in a nearly ideal scatterer (aerogel) are also observed with comparisons to
The NOAA Space Environment Center is the focal point for real-time space weather monitoring and prediction in the United States . The Space Weather Operations (SWO) division staffs a 24-hour/day operations center, through which both in-situ and remotely sensed data and imagery flow. These diverse data streams are analyzed continuously, and that information is applied to both predictions and specifications of various aspects of the space environment. These include the behavior of the geomagnetic field, the character of the ionosphere, and the strength of the near-earth radiation environment. Models are brought to bear in each of thes e areas, as SEC has an active research-to-operations transition effort. The Rapid Prototyping Center is the venue through which pertinent models and data must pass to be brought into the operational arena. The model outputs are then made available both internally and externally. SEC is a member of the International Space Environment Service (ISES), a partnership currently consisting of eleven nations. The mission of the ISES is to encourage and facilitate near-real-time international monitoring and prediction of the space environment by: the rapid exchange of space environment information; the standardization of the methodology for space environment observations and data reduction; the uniform publication of observations and statistics; and the application of standardized space environment products and services to assist users in reducing the impact of space weather on activities of human interest. An overview of the operational attributes of the SEC, and the function of the ISES, will be presented. Additional issues related to space weather customers, new data streams to be available in the near-term, and how these new data and imagery will be integrated int o operations will be discussed.
Cheng, Leo Y.; Hunt, Joseph C. Jr.; Stowers, Kennis; Lowrance, Patrick; Stewart, Andrzej; Travis, Paul
Our understanding of the dynamical process in the space environment has increased dramatically. A relatively new field of study called "Space Weather" has emerged in the last few decades. Fundamental to the study of space weather is an understanding of how space weather events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections impact spacecraft in varying orbits and distances around the Sun. Specialized space weather satellite monitoring systems operated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) allow scientists to predict space weather events affecting critical systems on and orbiting the Earth. However, the Spitzer Space Telescope is in an orbit far outside the areas covered by those space weather monitoring systems. This poses a challenge for the Spitzer's Mission Operations Team in determining whether space weather events affect Spitzer.
I develop and document a set of procedures which test the quality of predictions of solar wind speed and polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) made by coupled models of the ambient solar corona and heliosphere. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is used to illustrate the application of these validation procedures. I present an algorithm which detects transitions of the solar wind from slow to high speed. I also present an algorithm which processes the measured polarity of the outward directed component of the IMF. This removes high-frequency variations to expose the longer-scale changes that reflect IMF sector changes. I apply these algorithms to WSA model predictions made using a small set of photospheric synoptic magnetograms obtained by the Global Oscillation Network Group as input to the model. The results of this preliminary validation of the WSA model (version 1.6) are summarized.
Berger, T. E.
Space weather operations presents unique challenges for data systems and providers. Space weather events evolve more quickly than terrestrial weather events. While terrestrial weather occurs on timescales of minutes to hours, space weather storms evolve on timescales of seconds to minutes. For example, the degradation of the High Frequency Radio communications between the ground and commercial airlines is nearly instantaneous when a solar flare occurs. Thus the customer is observing impacts at the same time that the operational forecast center is seeing the event unfold. The diversity and spatial scale of the space weather system is such that no single observation can capture the salient features. The vast space that encompasses space weather and the scarcity of observations further exacerbates the situation and make each observation even more valuable. The physics of interplanetary space, through which many major storms propagate, is very different from the physics of the ionosphere where most of the impacts are felt. And while some observations can be made from ground-based observatories, many of the most critical data comes from satellites, often in unique orbits far from Earth. In this presentation, I will describe some of the more important sources and types of data that feed into the operational alerts, watches, and warnings of space weather storms. Included will be a discussion of some of the new space weather forecast models and the data challenges that they bring forward.
Reeves, Geoffrey D; Friedel, Reiner H W; Chen, Yue; Koller, Josef; Henderson, Michael G
The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to assess, quantify, and predict the hazards from the natural space environment and the anthropogenic environment produced by high altitude nuclear explosions (HANE). DREAM was initially developed as a basic research activity to understand and predict the dynamics of the Earth's Van Allen radiation belts. It uses Kalman filter techniques to assimilate data from space environment instruments with a physics-based model of the radiation belts. DREAM can assimilate data from a variety of types of instruments and data with various levels of resolution and fidelity by assigning appropriate uncertainties to the observations. Data from any spacecraft orbit can be assimilated but DREAM was designed to function with as few as two spacecraft inputs: one from geosynchronous orbit and one from GPS orbit. With those inputs, DREAM can be used to predict the environment at any satellite in any orbit whether space environment data are available in those orbits or not. Even with very limited data input and relatively simple physics models, DREAM specifies the space environment in the radiation belts to a high level of accuracy. DREAM has been extensively tested and evaluated as we transition from research to operations. We report here on one set of test results in which we predict the environment in a highly-elliptical polar orbit. We also discuss long-duration reanalysis for spacecraft design, using DREAM for real-time operations, and prospects for 1-week forecasts of the radiation belt environment.
Zapp, Neal; Fry, Dan; Lee, Kerry
Management of crew exposure to radiation is a major concern for manned spaceflight and will be even more important for the modern concept of longer-duration exploration. The inherent protection afforded to astronauts by the magnetic field of the Earth in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) makes operations on the space shuttle or space station very different from operations during a deep space exploration mission. In order to experience significant radiation-derived Loss of Mission (LOM) or Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for LEO operations, one is almost driven to dictate extreme duration or to dictate an extreme sequence of solar activity. Outside of the geo-magnetosphere, however, this scenario changes dramatically. Exposures to the same event on the ISS and on the surface of the Moon may differ by multiple orders of magnitude. This change in magnitude, coupled with the logistical constraints present in implementing any practical operational mitigation make situational awareness with regard to space weather a limiting factor for our ability to conduct exploration operations. With these differences in risk to crew, vehicle and mission in mind, we present the status of the efforts currently underway as the required development to enable exploration operations. The changes in the operating environment as crewed operations begin to stretch away from the Earth are changing the way we think about the lines between research and operations . The real, practical work to enable a permanent human presence away from Earth has already begun
St. Cyr, O. C.; Guhathakurta, M.; Bell, H.; Niemeyer, L.; Allen, J.
Measurements from many of NASA's scientific spacecraft are used routinely by space weather forecasters, both in the U.S. and internationally. ACE, SOHO (an ESA/NASA collaboration), STEREO, and SDO provide images and in situ measurements that are assimilated into models and cited in alerts and warnings. A number of years ago, the Space Weather laboratory was established at NASA-Goddard, along with the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. Within that organization, a space weather service center has begun issuing alerts for NASA's operational users. NASA's operational user community includes flight operations for human and robotic explorers; atmospheric drag concerns for low-Earth orbit; interplanetary navigation and communication; and the fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles, high altitude aircraft, and launch vehicles. Over the past three years we have identified internal stakeholders within NASA and formed a Working Group to better coordinate their expertise and their needs. In this presentation we will describe this activity and some of the challenges in forming a diverse working group.
galaxy for some ten million years before intersecting the earth. They are partly kept out by the earth’s magnetic field and have easier access at the...prediction based on AP- 8 & 1970 magnetic field model. Double-peak pass at orbit 23 is not predicted. Figure 5 show count-rate profiles for a typical day in...space that affect Earth and its technological systems. Space Weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth’s magnetic field
Parnowski, Aleksei; Cheremnykh, Oleg; Yatsenko, Vitaly
We developed several approaches to the problem of real-time space weather indices forecasting using readily available data from ACE and a number of ground stations. The first one is based on a dynamical-information approach to nonlinear modeling of space plasma . It uses new nonlinear mathematical models of geomagnetic indices and original algorithms for detection of structure and parameters. The identification problem is formulated as a constrained optimization problem. Novel algorithms provide an optimal structure of discrete dynamical system using fuzzy systems modeling. The second one is based on the regression modeling method , which combines the benefits of empirical and statistical approaches. It uses such statistical methods as the linear regression analysis, maximum likelihood method, dispersion analysis and Monte-Carlo simulations to deduce the empirical relationships in the system. In both cases the typical elapsed time per forecast is about several seconds on an average PC. Such techniques can be easily extended to other indices like AE and Kp. The proposed system can also be useful for investigating of physical phenomena related to interactions between the solar wind and the magnetosphere - it already helped uncovering two new geoeffective parameters. In addition, we performed the risk analysis of damage to VUV, EUV and X-ray optics due to space weather factors and analyzed the safety of space instruments. We plan combining short-term and medium-term approaches to accurately predict geomagnetic storms at least 5-10 hours before commencement. Practical applications of such a system include (but are not limited to): - spacecraft safety (prediction of radiation threat); - human health (putting emergency services on alert); - prevention of technological disasters (power grid failures, major radio blackouts). 1. Cheremnykh O.K., Yatsenko V.A., Semeniv O.V., Shatokhina Yu.V. Nonlinear dynamics and prediction for space weather // Ukr. J. Phys. — 2008
Zapp, Neal; Rutledge, R.; Semones, E. J.; Johnson, A. S.; Guetersloh, S.; Fry, D.; Stoffle, N.; Lee, K.
Management of crew exposure to radiation is a major concern for manned spaceflight -- and will be even more important for the modern concept of longer-duration exploration. The inherent protection afforded to astronauts by the magnetic field of the Earth in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) makes operations on the space shuttle or space station very different from operations during an exploration mission. In order to experience significant radiation-derived Loss of Mission (LOM) or Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for LEO operations, one is almost driven to dictate extreme duration or to dictate an extreme sequence of solar activity. Outside of the geo-magnetosphere, however, this scenario changes dramatically. Exposures to the same event on the ISS and on the surface of the Moon may differ by multiple orders of magnitude. This change in magnitude, coupled with the logistical constraints present in implementing any practical operational mitigation make situational awareness with regard to space weather a limiting factor for our ability to conduct exploration operations. With these differences in risk to crew, vehicle and mission in mind, we present the status of the efforts currently underway as the required development to enable exploration operations. The changes in the operating environment as crewed operations begin to stretch away from the Earth are changing the way we think about the lines between "research" and "operations". The real, practical work to enable a permanent human presence away from Earth has already begun.
Dorman, L. I.
influenced very much on communications, working of navigation systems, satellites and high-level technology systems in space and, the atmosphere, and on the ground). The review and original part will contain following parts: 1. Introduction (cosmic rays as object and instrument of space weather monitoring and forecasting). 2. On-line search of the start of great Flare Energetic Particle (FEP) events, automatically formation of Alerts, estimation of probability of false alerts and probability of missing alerts (realized in Israel Cosmic Ray Center and Emilio Segre’ Observatory). 3. On-line determination of flare energetic particle spectrum by the method of coupling functions. 4. Automatically determination of diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space, time of ejection and energy spectrum of FEP in source; forecasting of expected FEP flux and radiation hazard for space-probes in space, satellites in the magnetosphere, jets and various objects in the atmosphere, and on the ground in dependence of cut-off rigidity. 5. Cosmic ray using for forecasting of major geomagnetic storms accompanied by Forbush-effects.
Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor
Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare
SaintCyr, O. Chris
Forbes & St. Cyr (2004, hereafter "FISC") have provided evidence that the electricity market can be impacted by space weather. Our analysis indicated that the estimated market impact for PJM was 3.7 % or approximately $500 million dollars over the 19 month sample period. Kappenman has taken exception to this estimate and contends that we have exaggerated the magnitude of the problem that space weather poses to PJM. There are four specific issues: (1) he claims that we have ignored relevant literature; (2) he asserts that Dst is not an appropriate proxy for GICs in PJM; (3) he charges that our findings are inconsistent with the impact of the 17 September 2000 storm; and (4) he alleges that our discussion of October 2003 storms is misleading. In our article, we have explained our methodology, multivariate regression analysis, with a particular focus on how it compares to correlation analysis. We have also explained the limitations of our analysis. We noted that "...While the Dstlprice relationship was found to be robust, the precise estimate should be treated with a relatively high degree of caution given that econometric modeling is not an exact science as well as the fact that the measure of space weather may be a poor proxy for GICs" (paragraph 96). We have also noted that additional research using local magnetometer data are needed (paragraph 97). We did not claim that that our findings for PJM are representative of the impact of space weather on other power grids. On the contrary, we noted that ... "Only analysis of other power grids will tell. " (paragraph 97). Kappenman inaccurately asserts that we have indicated that our findings . . . "imply much higher total costs are likely across the US and elsewhere in the world." He also inaccurately asserts that we have claimed that " . . . Dst is the most suited proxy for GIC in the PJM grid.. ." Moreover, he inaccurately refers to our analysis as a correlation study that uses Dst as quasi-binary indicator.
Alekseev, Dmitry; Kuvshinov, Alexey; Palshin, Nikolay
We have compiled a global three-dimensional (3D) conductivity model of the Earth with an ultimate goal to be used for realistic simulation of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC), posing a potential threat to man-made electric systems. Bearing in mind the intrinsic frequency range of the most intense disturbances (magnetospheric substorms) with typical periods ranging from a few minutes to a few hours, the compiled 3D model represents the structure in depth range of 0-100 km, including seawater, sediments, earth crust, and partly the lithosphere/asthenosphere. More explicitly, the model consists of a series of spherical layers, whose vertical and lateral boundaries are established based on available data. To compile a model, global maps of bathymetry, sediment thickness, and upper and lower crust thicknesses as well as lithosphere thickness are utilized. All maps are re-interpolated on a common grid of 0.25×0.25 degree lateral spacing. Once the geometry of different structures is specified, each element of the structure is assigned either a certain conductivity value or conductivity versus depth distribution, according to available laboratory data and conversion laws. A numerical formalism developed for compilation of the model, allows for its further refinement by incorporation of regional 3D conductivity distributions inferred from the real electromagnetic data. So far we included into our model four regional conductivity models, available from recent publications, namely, surface conductance model of Russia, and 3D conductivity models of Fennoscandia, Australia, and northwest of the United States.
Luntama, Juha-Pekka; Glover, Alexi; Hilgers, Alain; Fletcher, Emmet
ESA Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Preparatory Programme was started in 2009. The objective of the programme is to support the European independent utilisation of and access to space research or services. This will be performed through providing timely and quality data, information, services and knowledge regarding the environment, the threats and the sustainable exploitation of the outer space surrounding the planet Earth. SSA serves the implementation of the strategic missions of the European Space Policy based on the peaceful uses of the outer space by all states, by supporting the autonomous capacity to securely and safely operate the critical European space infrastructures. The Space Weather (SWE) Segment of the SSA will provide user services related to the monitoring of the Sun, the solar wind, the radiation belts, the magnetosphere and the ionosphere. These services will include near real time information and forecasts about the characteristics of the space environment and predictions of space weather impacts on sensitive spaceborne and ground based infrastructure. The SSA SWE system will also include establishment of a permanent database for analysis, model development and scientific research. These services are will support a wide variety of user domains including spacecraft designers, spacecraft operators, human space flights, users and operators of transionospheric radio links, and space weather research community. The precursor SWE services to be established starting in 2010. This presentation provides an overview of the ESA SSA SWE services focused on supporting the Space Surveillance and Tracking users. This services include estimates of the atmospheric drag and archive and forecasts of the geomagnetic and solar indices. In addition, the SSA SWE system will provide nowcasts of the ionospheric group delay to support mitigation of the ionospheric impact on radar signals. The paper will discuss the user requirements for the services, the data
Schulte In Den Baeumen, Hagen; Cairns, Iver
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) strong enough to create electromagnetic effects at latitudes below the auroral oval are frequent events, and could have substantial impacts on electric power transmission and telecommunication grids. Modern society’s heavy reliance on these domestic and international networks increases our susceptibility to such a severe Space Weather event. Using a new high-resolution model of the global economy we simulate the economic impact of large CMEs for 3 different planetary orientations. We account for the economic impacts within the countries directly affected as well as the post-disaster economic shock in partner economies through international trade. For the CMEs modeled the total global economic impacts would range from US 380 billion to US 1 trillion. Of this total economic shock 50 % would be felt in countries outside the zone of direct impact, leading to a loss in global GDP of 0.1 - 1 %. A severe Space Weather event could lead to global economic damages of the same order as other weather disasters, climate change, and extreme financial crisis.
Berger, T. E.
The first official space weather forecast was issued by the Space Disturbances Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, in 1965, ushering in an era of operational prediction that continues to this day. Today, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) charters the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) as one of the nine National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to provide the nation's official watches, warnings, and alerts of space weather phenomena. SWPC is now integral to national and international efforts to predict space weather events, from the common and mild, to the rare and extreme, that can impact critical technological infrastructure. In 2012, the Strategic National Risk Assessment included extreme space weather events as low-to-medium probability phenomena that could, unlike any other meteorogical phenomena, have an impact on the government's ability to function. Recognizing this, the White House chartered the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to produce the first comprehensive national strategy for the prediction, mitigation, and response to an extreme space weather event. The implementation of the National Strategy is ongoing with NOAA, its partners, and stakeholders concentrating on the goal of improving our ability to observe, model, and predict the onset and severity of space weather events. In addition, work continues with the research community to improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms - on the Sun, in the heliosphere, and in the Earth's magnetic field and upper atmosphere - of space weather as well as the effects on critical infrastructure such as electrical power transmission systems. In fifty years, people will hopefully look back at the history of operational space weather prediction and credit our efforts today with solidifying the necessary developments in observational systems, full-physics models of the entire Sun-Earth system, and tools for predicting the impacts to infrastructure to protect
Paxton, L. J.; Holm, J. M.; Schaefer, R. K.; Weiss, M.
On the 150th anniversary of the Carrington Event, it behooves us to reflect upon the impact of space weather on our technology-intensive, communications-driven, socitey. Over the period since the last solar maximum in 2001, the commercial, defense department, and other national entities have become increasingly dependent on the electronic command, control, & communication systems that are vulnerable to Space Weather events. There has not been a concomitant increase in our ability to reliably predict space weather nor in our ability to separate natural effects from human ones. Now we need to quickly gear up space situational awareness capability in time for the next solar max predicted to occur in about 3-4 years. Unfortunately, space weather expertise is spread over institutions and academic disciplines and communication between space weather forecasters, forecast users, and the research community is poor. We would like to set up a demonstration space weather virtual organization to find a more efficient way to communicate and manage knowledge to ensure the operational community can get actionable information in a timely manner. We call this system concept SWIFTER-ACTION (Space Weather Informatics, Forecasting, and Technology through Enabling Research - Accessibility, Content, & Timely Information On the Network.) In this paper we provide an overview of the issues that must be addressed in order to transform data into knowledge that enables action.
Baker, Daniel N.; Lanzerotti, Louis J.
This Resource Letter describes the phenomena and effects on technological systems that are known collectively as space weather. A brief history of the topic is provided, and the scientific understandings of drivers for such phenomena are discussed. The impacts of space disturbances are summarized, and the strategies for dealing with space weather threats are examined. The Resource Letter concludes with description of approaches that have been proposed to deal with threats to our increasingly technological society.
Keller, L. P.; Berger, E. L.
Space weathering alters the chemistry, microstructure, and spectral proper-ties of grains on the surfaces of airless bodies by two major processes: micrometeorite impacts and solar wind interactions. Investigating the nature of space weathering processes both in returned samples and in remote sensing observations provides information fundamental to understanding the evolution of airless body regoliths, improving our ability to determine the surface composition of asteroids, and linking meteorites to specific asteroidal parent bodies. Despite decades of research into space weathering processes and their effects, we still know very little about weathering rates. For example, what is the timescale to alter the reflectance spectrum of an ordinary chondrite meteorite to resemble the overall spectral shape and slope from an S-type asteroid? One approach to answering this question has been to determine ages of asteroid families by dynamical modeling and determine the spectral proper-ties of the daughter fragments. However, large differences exist between inferred space weathering rates and timescales derived from laboratory experiments, analysis of asteroid family spectra and the space weathering styles; estimated timescales range from 5000 years up to 108 years. Vernazza et al. concluded that solar wind interactions dominate asteroid space weathering on rapid timescales of 10(exp 4)-10(exp 6) years. Shestopalov et al. suggested that impact-gardening of regolith particles and asteroid resurfacing counteract the rapid progress of solar wind optical maturation of asteroid surfaces and proposed a space weathering timescale of 10(exp 5)-10(exp 6) years.
Kathy Echiverri, and Lauri Cross (PatchPlus Consulting), and Seth Orloff, and Lydia Lavigne (Ball Aerospace), Kevin Scro (Air Force Space Command...Paul O’Brien (Aerospace Corp), and Paul Gehred (Air Force Weather Agency). 6. References  Reeves, G . 2010. Integration of Space Weather into Space
Solar Energy , Jan. 2016. Lohmeyer, W. and K. Cahoy, “Space Weather Radiation Effects on...Journal of Solar Energy , Jan. 2016. Lohmeyer, W. and K. Cahoy, "Space Weather Radiation Effects on Geostationary Satellite Solid-State Power Amplifiers...34 submitted for publication in the Journal of Solar Energy , Jan. 2016. Lohmeyer, W. and K. Cahoy, "Space Weather Radiation Effects on
Crowley, G.; Haacke, B.; Reynolds, A.
For the past several years, ASTRA has run a first-principles global 3-D fully coupled thermosphere-ionosphere model in real-time for space weather applications. The model is the Thermosphere-Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIMEGCM). ASTRA also runs the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) in real-time. Using AMIE to drive the high latitude inputs to the TIMEGCM produces high fidelity simulations of the global thermosphere and ionosphere. These simulations can be viewed on the Android Phone App developed by ASTRA. The SpaceWeather app for the Android operating system is free and can be downloaded from the Google Marketplace. We present the current status of realtime thermosphere-ionosphere space-weather forcasting and discuss the way forward. We explore some of the issues in maintaining real-time simulations with assimilative data feeds in a quasi-operational setting. We also discuss some of the challenges of presenting large amounts of data on a smartphone. The ASTRA SpaceWeather app includes the broadest and most unique range of space weather data yet to be found on a single smartphone app. This is a one-stop-shop for space weather and the only app where you can get access to ASTRA’s real-time predictions of the global thermosphere and ionosphere, high latitude convection and geomagnetic activity. Because of the phone's GPS capability, users can obtain location specific vertical profiles of electron density, temperature, and time-histories of various parameters from the models. The SpaceWeather app has over 9000 downloads, 30 reviews, and a following of active users. It is clear that real-time space weather on smartphones is here to stay, and must be included in planning for any transition to operational space-weather use.
Reeves, Geoffrey D
Rapid assessment of space weather effects on satellites is a critical step in anomaly resolution and satellite threat assessment. That step, however, is often hindered by a number of factors including timely collection and delivery of space weather data and the inherent com plexity of space weather information. As part of a larger, integrated space situational awareness program, Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed prototype operational space weather tools that run in real time and present operators with customized, user-specific information. The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) focuses on the penetrating radiation environment from natural or nuclear-produced radiation belts. The penetrating radiation environment is highly dynamic and highly orbit-dependent. Operators often must rely only on line plots of 2 MeV electron flux from the NOAA geosynchronous GOES satellites which is then assumed to be representative of the environment at the satellite of interest. DREAM uses data assimilation to produce a global, real-time, energy dependent specification. User tools are built around a distributed service oriented architecture (SOA) which will allow operators to select any satellite from the space catalog and examine the environment for that specific satellite and time of interest. Depending on the application operators may need to examine instantaneous dose rates and/or dose accumulated over various lengths of time. Further, different energy thresholds can be selected depending on the shielding on the satellite or instrument of interest. In order to rapidly assess the probability that space weather was the cause of anomalous operations, the current conditions can be compared against the historical distribution of radiation levels for that orbit. In the simplest operation a user would select a satellite and time of interest and immediately see if the environmental conditions were typical, elevated, or extreme based on how often those
Vallat, Claire; Altobelli, Nicolas; Cornet, Thomas; Schmidt, Jürgen; Navarro, Sara; Erd, Christian; Witasse, Olivier; Rodmann, Jens; Mints, Alexey
The Galilean moons reveal large albedo variations on their surfaces, in particular between their leading and trailing hemispheres. The differences observed are likely the results of a balance between various weathering processes of the surface, determined by the moons' local environment. Chemical and physical alterations occur at the surface, triggered by multiple exogenic energy deposit processes (radiolysis, plasma sputtering, micro-meteoroids impacts, …).The observed variations are probably due to anisotropy in the energy fluxes received on each hemisphere and due to to a different relative contribution of the weathering agents (plasma, dust…) as function of the distance to Jupiter. We will be testing this hypothesis by estimating quantitatively the kinetic energy flux impacting different part of the surfaces of the Galilean moons. This work is essential in the context of the future missions to the Jovian moons, such as the JUICE ESA mission, as a proper understanding of the moons' surface history can be achieved only if one is able to constrain the balance between exogenic and endogenic alteration processes.Impacts of dust particles coming from the Galilean moons and evolving dynamically in the Jovian system will be simulated using the Jovian Micrometeoroid Environment Model (JMEM) . Direct interplanetary dust impacts are simulated using the prediction of the Interplanetary Micrometeoroid Environment Model (IMEM)  computed at Jupiter's Hill radius, taking into account gravitational focusing by the planet. Finally, electron and ion fluxes interacting with different parts of the moons' surfaces can be estimated using the Jovian Specification Environment model (JOSE) .In parallel, signature of surface weathering will be assessed using reflectance maps based on the Galileo imaging data.Those models will also be applied, for comparison, to other atmosphere-less bodies of the solar system such as the asteroids Ceres, Vesta and Pallas.References Liu et
This presentation will introduce the Upper Atmosphere and Space Weather Laboratory of Istanbul Technical University (ITU). It has been established to support the educational needs of the Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics in 2011 to conduct scientific research in Space Weather, Space Environment, Space Environment-Spacecraft Interactions, Space instrumentation and Upper Atmospheric studies. Currently the laboratory has some essential infrastructure and the most instrumentation for ionospheric observations and ground induced currents from the magnetosphere. The laboratory has two subunits: SWIFT dealing with Space Weather Instrumentation and Forecasting unit and SWDPA dealing with Space Weather Data Processing and Analysis. The research area covers wide range of upper atmospheric and space science studies from ionosphere, ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling, magnetic storms and magnetospheric substorms, distant magnetotail, magnetopause and bow shock studies, as well as solar and solar wind disturbances and their interaction with the Earth's space environment. We also study the spacecraft environment interaction and novel plasma instrument design. Several scientific projects have been carried out in the laboratory. Operational objectives of our laboratory will be carried out with the collaboration of NASA's Space Weather Laboratory and the facilities are in the process of integration to their prediction services. Educational and research objectives, as well as the examples from the research carried out in our laboratory will be demonstrated in this presentation.
The Forecast Office of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the nation's official source of alerts, warnings, and watches. The office, staffed 24/7, is always vigilant for solar activity that ...
Lilensten, Jean; Clark, Toby; Belehaki, Anna
A new European intergovernmental action devoted to space weather has been recently approved. This paper describes the political and scientific context in which this action takes place, and the goals of this action, called COST 724.
Tobiska, W. Kent; Crowley, Geoff; Oh, Seung Jun; Guhathakurta, Madhulika
True to the saying that "a picture is worth a thousand words," society's affinity for visual images has driven innovative efforts to see space weather as it happens. The newest frontiers of these efforts involve applications, or apps, on cellular phones, allowing space weather researchers, operators, and teachers, as well as other interested parties, to have the ability to monitor conditions in real time with just the touch of a button.
Jones, J.; Bentley, R.; Hunter, R.; Taylor, G.; Thomas, D.
Space Weather (SW) phenomena can effect many areas of commercial airline operations including avionics, communications and GPS navigation systems. Of particular importance at present is the recently introduced EU legislation requiring the monitoring of aircrew radiation exposure, including any variations at aircraft altitudes due to solar activity. The Mullard Space Science Laboratory is collaborating with Virgin Atlantic Airways, the Civil Aviation Authority and the National Physical Laboratory on a 3- year project to monitor the levels of cosmic radiation on long-haul flights. The study will determine whether computer models currently used to predict radiation exposure of aircrew are adequate. It also aims to determine whether solar or geomagnetic activity can cause significant modifications to the doses. This presentation will begin by showing some of the preliminary results obtained so far. As an example, we present a comparison of flight doses measured following the 14t h July 2000 X - class flare that was accompanied by a major Solar Particle Event (SPE). The results highlight the importance of a range of external factors that can strongly influence how SPEs may effect the measured dose at aircraft altitudes. At present, any SPE contributions in the airlines' dose records can only be poorly estimated retrospectively. Ideally, it would be better to try to avoid operating during these possibly significant radiation - enhancing events by utilising SW information (alerts, warnings, etc.). However, doing so poses many difficult operational problems for such a heavily regulated international industry, in terms of safety, security and procedures. Therefore, the use of timely SW information, which is still very unreliable, in a similar manner to terrestrial weather will require agreement from the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and International Air Transport Association (IATA) to Air Traffic Control and Aviation Regulatory Authority's. This
Henley, E.; Gibbs, M.; Jackson, D.; Marsh, M. S.
The Met Office has over 150 years' experience in providing operational forecasting to meet the UK's terrestrial weather needs, and is developing a similar capability in space weather. Since April 2014 the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) has issued 24/7 operational forecasts, alerts and warnings on space weather which can have impacts on electricity grids, radio communications and satellite electronics. In this talk we will summarise the current requirements and future needs for operational space weather forecasting. We will review what the terrestrial weather community considers as operational forecasts, and use MOSWOC as an example of the underpinning research, IT and collaborations required to accomplish this. We will also discuss the policy, science evidence base and user support requirements needed to obtain sufficient long-term funding for operational activities, illustrating this with the UK's national risk register, Royal Academy of Engineering report, and the forthcoming IPSP economic study, as well as work done with users to ensure services match their needs. These are similar activities to those being undertaken in SWORM and the COSPAR/ILWS Space Weather Shield to Society Roadmap. Future needs will also be considered, considering the need for operational observations, particularly focussing on the role an L5 mission could play; a chain of coupled operational models covering the Sun, Earth, and intervening space; and how these observations and models can be integrated via data assimilation.
The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) is an empirical model of the solar irradiance spectrum from 0.1 to 190 nm at 1 nm spectral resolution and on a 1-minute time cadence. The goal of FISM is to provide accurate solar spectral irradiances over the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV: 0-200 nm) range as input for ionospheric and thermospheric models. The seminar will begin with a brief overview of the FISM model, and also how the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) will contribute to improving FISM. Some current studies will then be presented that use FISM estimations of the solar VUV irradiance to quantify the contributions of the increased irradiance from flares to Earth's increased thermospheric and ionospheric densites. Initial results will also be presented from a study looking at the electron density increases in the Martian atmosphere during a solar flare. Results will also be shown quantifying the VUV contributions to the total flare energy budget for both the impulsive and gradual phases of solar flares. Lastly, an example of how FISM can be used to simplify the design of future solar VUV irradiance instruments will be discussed, using the future NOAA GOES-R Extreme Ultraviolet and X-Ray Sensors (EXIS) space weather instrument.
Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dal Lago, Alisson; Mendes, Odim; Batista, Inez S.; SantAnna, Nilson; Gatto, Rubens; Takahashi, Hisao; Costa, D. Joaquim; Banik Padua, Marcelo; Campos Velho, Haroldo
On August 2007 the National Institute for Space Research started a task force to develop and operate a space weather program, which is known by the acronyms Embrace that stands for the Portuguese statement "Estudo e Monitoramento BRAasileiro de Clima Espacial" Program (Brazilian Space Weather Study and Monitoring program). The mission of the Embrace/INPE program is to monitor the Solar-Terrestrial environment, the magnetosphere, the upper atmosphere and the ground induced currents to prevent effects on technological and economic activities. The Embrace/INPE system monitors the physical parameters of the Sun-Earth environment, such as Active Regions (AR) in the Sun and solar radiation by using radio telescope, Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) information by satellite and ground-based cosmic ray monitoring, geomagnetic activity by the magnetometer network, and ionospheric disturbance by ionospheric sounders and using data collected by four GPS receiver network, geomagnetic activity by a magnetometer network, and provides a forecasting for Total Electronic Content (TEC) - 24 hours ahead - using a version of the SUPIM model which assimilates the two latter data using nudging approach. Most of these physical parameters are daily published on the Brazilian space weather program web portal, related to the entire network sensors available. Regarding outreach, it has being published a daily bulletin in Portuguese and English with the status of the space weather environment on the Sun, the Interplanetary Medium and close to the Earth. Since December 2011, all these activities are carried out at the Embrace Headquarter, a building located at the INPE's main campus. Recently, a comprehensive data bank and an interface layer are under commissioning to allow an easy and direct access to all the space weather data collected by Embrace through the Embrace web Portal. The information being released encompasses data from: (a) the Embrace Digisonde Network (Embrace DigiNet) that monitors
Noble, S. K.; Pieters, C. M.
Space weathering processes are known to be important on the Moon. These processes both create the lunar regolith and alter its optical properties. Like the Moon, Mercury has no atmosphere to protect it from the harsh space environment and therefore it is expected that it will also incur the effects of space weathering. However, there are many important differences between the environments of Mercury and the Moon. These environmental differences will almost certainly affect the weathering processes and the products of those processes. It should be possible to observe the effects of these differences in Vis (visible)/NIR (near infrared) spectra of the type expected to be returned by MESSENGER. More importantly, understanding these weathering processes and their consequences is essential for evaluating the spectral data returned from MESSENGER and other missions in order to determine the mineralogy and the Fe content of the Mercurian surface. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.
Noble, Sarah K.
"Space weathering" is the term given to the cumulative effects incurred by surfaces which are exposed to the harsh environment of space. Lunar sample studies over the last decade or so have produced a clear picture of space weathering processes in the lunar environment. By combining laboratory and remote spectra with microanalytical methods (scanning and transmission electron microscopy), we have begun to unravel the various processes (irradiation, micrometeorite bombardment, etc) that contribute to space weathering and the physical and optical consequences of those processes on the Moon. Using the understanding gleaned from lunar samples, it is possible to extrapolate weathering processes to other airless bodies from which we have not yet returned samples (i.e. Mercury, asteroids). Through experiments which simulate various components of weathering, the expected differences in environment (impact rate, distance from Sun, presence of a magnetic field, reduced or enhanced gravity, etc) and composition (particularly iron content) can be explored to understand how space weathering will manifest on a given body.
Gillis-Davis, Jeffrey J.; Lucey, Paul G.; Bradley, John P.; Ishii, Hope A.; Kaluna, Heather M.; Misra, Anumpam; Connolly, Harold C.
We report findings from a series of laser-simulated space weathering experiments on Allende, a CV3 carbonaceous chondrite. The purpose of these experiments is to understand how spectra of anhydrous C-complex asteroids might vary as a function of micrometeorite bombardment. Four 0.5-gram aliquots of powdered, unpacked Allende meteorite were incrementally laser weathered with 30 mJ pulses while under vacuum. Radiative transfer modeling of the spectra and Scanning Transmission Electron Microscope (STEM) analyses of the samples show lunar-like similarities and differences in response to laser-simulated space weathering. For instance, laser weathered Allende exhibited lunar-like spectral changes. The overall spectra from visible to near infrared (Vis-NIR) redden and darken, and characteristic absorption bands weaken as a function of laser exposure. Unlike lunar weathering, however, the continuum slope between 450-550 nm does not vary monotonically with laser irradiation. Initially, spectra in this region redden with laser irradiation; then, the visible continua become less red and eventually spectrally bluer. STEM analyses of less mature samples confirm submicroscopic iron metal (SMFe) and micron sized sulfides. More mature samples reveal increased dispersal of Fe-Ni sulfides by the laser, which we infer to be the cause for the non-lunar-like changes in spectral behavior. Spectra of laser weathered Allende are a reasonable match to T- or possibly K-type asteroids; though the spectral match with a parent body is not exact. The key take away is, laser weathered Allende looks spectrally different (i.e., darker, and redder or bluer depending on the wavelength region) than its unweathered spectrum. Consequently, connecting meteorites to asteroids using unweathered spectra of meteorites would result in a different parent body than one matched on the basis of weathered spectra. Further, spectra for these laser weathering experiments may provide an explanation for
This video shows a simulation of the space environment all the way out to Pluto in the months surrounding New Horizons’ July 2015 flyby. At the time, scientists at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Cente...
Stanislawska, Iwona; Gulyaeva, Tamara; Dziak-Jankowska, Beata
Knowledge of the behavior of the ionosphere is very important for space weather services. A wide variety of ground based and satellite existing and future systems (communications, radar, surveillance, intelligence gathering, satellite operation, etc) is affected by the ionosphere. There are the needs for reliable and efficient support for such systems against natural hazard and minimalization of the risk failure. The joint research Project on the 'Ionospheric Weather' of IZMIRAN and SRC PAS is aimed to provide on-line the ionospheric parameters characterizing the space weather in the ionosphere. It is devoted to science, techniques and to more application oriented areas of ionospheric investigation in order to support space weather services. The studies based on data mining philosophy increasing the knowledge of ionospheric physical properties, modelling capabilities and gain applications of various procedures in ionospheric monitoring and forecasting were concerned. In the framework of the joint Project the novel techniques for data analysis, the original system of the ionospheric disturbance indices and their implementation for the ionosphere and the ionospheric radio wave propagation are developed since 1997. Data of ionosonde measurements and results of their forecasting for the ionospheric observatories network, the regional maps and global ionospheric maps of total electron content from the navigational satellite system (GNSS) observations, the global maps of the F2 layer peak parameters (foF2, hmF2) and W-index of the ionospheric variability are provided at the web pages of SRC PAS and IZMIRAN. The data processing systems include analysis and forecast of geomagnetic indices ap and kp and new eta index applied for the ionosphere forecasting. For the first time in the world the new products of the W-index maps analysis are provided in Catalogues of the ionospheric storms and sub-storms and their association with the global geomagnetic Dst storms is
Boteler, David; Trichtchenko, Larisa; Danskin, Donald
Space weather is a global phenomena so interntional collaboration is necessary to maintain awareness of potentially dangerous conditions. The Regional Warning Centres (RWCs) of the International Space Environment Service were set up during the International Geophysical Year to alert the scientific community to conditions requiring special measurements. The information sharing continues to this day with URSIGRAM messages exchanged between RWCs to help them produce space weather forecasts. Venturing into space, especially with manned missions, created a need to know about the space environment and particularly radiation dangers to man in space. Responding to this need led to the creation of a network of stations around the world to provide continuous monitoring of solar activity. Solar wind monitoring is now provided by the ACE satellite, operated by one country, but involving international collaborators to bring the information down in real time. Disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field are monitored by many magnetic observatories that are collaborating through INTERMAGNET to provide reliable data. Space weather produces effects on the ionosphere that can interfere with a variety of systems: the International GNSS Service provides information about effects on positioning systems, and the International Space Environment Service is providing information about iono-spheric absorption, particularly for trans-polar airline operations. The increasing availability of internet access, even at remote locations, is making it easier to obtain the raw information. The challenge now is how to integrate that information to provide effective international situational awareness of space weather.
Luntama, Juha-Pekka; Glover, Alexi; Keil, Ralf; Kraft, Stefan; Lupi, Adriano
ESA SSA Period 2 started at the beginning of 2013 and will last until the end of 2016. For the Space Weather Segment, transition to Period 2 introduced an increasing amount of development of new space weather service capability in addition to networking existing European assets. This transition was started already towards the end of SSA Period 1 with the initiation of the SSA Space Weather Segment architecture definition studies and activities enhancing existing space weather assets. The objective of Period 2 has been to initiate SWE space segment developments in the form of hosted payload missions and further expand the federated service network. A strong focus has been placed on demonstration and testing of European capabilities in the range of SWE service domains with a view to establishing core products which can form the basis of SWE service provision during SSA Period 3. This focus has been particularly addressed in the SSA Expert Service Centre (ESC) Definition and Development activity that was started in September 2015. This presentation will cover the current status of the SSA SWE Segment and the achievements during SSA Programme Periods 1 and 2. Particular attention is given to the federated approach that allow building the end user services on the best European expertise. The presentation will also outline the plans for the Space Weather capability development in the framework of the ESA SSA Programme in 2017-2020.
Comberiate, J.; Kelly, M. A.; Paxton, L. J.; Schaefer, R. K.; Bust, G. S.; Sotirelis, T.; Fox, N. J.
A key challenge for the operational space weather community is the gap between the latest scientific data, models, methods, and indices and those that are currently used in operational systems. The November 2014 SEASONS (Space Environment Applications, Systems, and Operations for National Security) Workshop at JHU/APL in Laurel, Maryland, brings together representatives from the operational and scientific communities. The theme of SEASONS 2014 is "Beyond Climatology," with a focus on how space weather events threaten operational assets and disrupt missions. Here we present perspectives from SEASONS 2014 on new observations, models in development, and forecasting methods that are of interest to the operational space weather community. Highlighted topics include ionospheric data assimilation and forecasting models, HF propagation models, radiation belt observations, and energetic particle modeling. The SEASONS 2014 web site can be found at https://secwww.jhuapl.edu/SEASONS/
Vaivads, Andris; Opgenoorth, Hermann; Retinò, Alessandro; Khotyaintsev, Yuri; Soucek, Jan; Valentini, Francesco; Escoubet, Philippe
Turbulence Heating ObserveR - THOR is a mission proposal to study energy dissipation and particle acceleration in turbulent space plasma. THOR will focus on turbulent plasma in pristine solar wind, bow shock and magnetosheath. The orbit of THOR is tuned to spend long times in those regions allowing THOR to obtain high resolution data sets that can be used also for space weather science. In addition, THOR is designed with enough propellant to reach L1 in the second phase of the mission if necessary. Here we will discuss the space weather science questions that can be addressed and significantly advanced using THOR. Link to THOR: http://thor.irfu.se.
Falconer, David; Khazanov, Igor; Barghouty, Nasser
Dangerous space weather is driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs). Forecasting flares and CMEs is the first step to forecasting either dangerous space weather or All Clear. MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events.
Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dasso, Sergio; Gonzalez-Esparza, J. Americo
The present work is the third of a three-part review of space weather in Latin America, specifically observing its evolution in three countries (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico). This work presents the decision process for the spinning off of space weather prediction centers from space science groups with our interpretation of the reasons/opportunities that lead to this. Lastly, the constraints for the progress in space weather monitoring, research, and forecast are listed with recommendations to overcome them, which we believe will lead to the access of key variables for the monitoring and forecasting space weather, which will allow these centers to better monitor space weather and issue warnings, watches and alerts.
Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dasso, Sergio; Gonzalez-Esparza, J. Americo
The present work is the second of a three-part review of space weather in Latin America, specifically observing its evolution in three countries (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico). This work comprises a summary of scientific challenges in space weather research that are considered to be open scientific questions and how they are being addressed in terms of instrumentation by the international community, including the Latin American groups. We also provide an inventory of the networks and collaborations being constructed in Latin America, including details on the data processing, capabilities and a basic description of the resulting variables. These instrumental networks currently used for space science research are gradually being incorporated into the space weather monitoring data pipelines as their data provides key variables for monitoring and forecasting space weather, which allow these centers to monitor space weather and issue watches, warnings and alerts.
Bauman, William H., III
The 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) is used by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to support space launch weather operations. The 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit to conduct an objective statistics-based analysis of MesoNAM output compared to wind tower mesonet observations and then develop a an operational tool to display the results. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction began running the current version of the MesoNAM in mid-August 2006. The period of record for the dataset was 1 September 2006 - 31 January 2010. The AMU evaluated MesoNAM hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and dew point were compared to the observed values of these parameters from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. The data sets were stratified by model initialization time, month and onshore/offshore flow for each wind tower. Statistics computed included bias (mean difference), standard deviation of the bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and a hypothesis test for bias = O. Twelve wind towers located in close proximity to key launch complexes were used for the statistical analysis with the sensors on the towers positioned at varying heights to include 6 ft, 30 ft, 54 ft, 60 ft, 90 ft, 162 ft, 204 ft and 230 ft depending on the launch vehicle and associated weather launch commit criteria being evaluated. These twelve wind towers support activities for the Space Shuttle (launch and landing), Delta IV, Atlas V and Falcon 9 launch vehicles. For all twelve towers, the results indicate a diurnal signal in the bias of temperature (T) and weaker but discernable diurnal signal in the bias of dewpoint temperature (T(sub d)) in the MesoNAM forecasts. Also, the standard deviation of the bias and RMSE of T, T(sub d), wind speed and wind
Willis, Emily M.; Howard, James W., Jr.; Miller, J. Scott; Minow, Joseph I.; NeergardParker, L.; Suggs, Robert M.
Marshall Space Flight Center s Space Environments Team is committed to applying the latest research in space weather to NASA programs. We analyze data from an extensive set of space weather satellites in order to define the space environments for some of NASA s highest profile programs. Our goal is to ensure that spacecraft are designed to be successful in all environments encountered during their missions. We also collaborate with universities, industry, and other federal agencies to provide analysis of anomalies and operational impacts to current missions. This presentation is a summary of some of our most recent applications of space weather data, including the definition of the space environments for the initial phases of the Space Launch System (SLS), acquisition of International Space Station (ISS) frame potential variations during geomagnetic storms, and Nascap-2K charging analyses.
Koskinen, H. E. J.
Space weather has become a highly fashionable topic in solar-terrestrial physics. It is perhaps the best tool to popularise the field and it has contributed significantly to the dialogue between solar, magnetospheric, and ionospheric scientist, and also to mu- tual understanding between science and engineering communities. While these are laudable achievements, it is important for the integrity of scientific space weather re- search to recognise the central open questions in the physics of space weather and the progress toward solving them. We still lack sufficient understanding of the solar physics to be able to tell in advance when and where a solar eruption will take place and whether it will turn to a geoeffective event. There is much to do to understand ac- celeration of solar energetic particles and propagation of solar mass ejecta toward the Earth. After more than 40 years of research scientific discussion of energy and plasma transfer through the magnetopause still deals mostly with qualitative issues and the rapid acceleration processes in the magnetosphere are not yet explained in a satisfac- tory way. Also the coupling to the ionosphere and from there to the strong induction effects on ground is another complex of research problems. For space weather science the beef is in the investigation of these and related topics, not in marketing half-useful space weather products to hesitant customers.
André, N.; Grande, M.
Under Horizon 2020, the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure (EPN2020-RI) will include an entirely new Virtual Access Service, WP5 VA1 "Planetary Space Weather Services" (PSWS) that will extend the concepts of space weather and space situational awareness to other planets in our Solar System and in particular to spacecraft that voyage through it. VA1 will make five entirely new 'toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: a general planetary space weather toolkit, as well as three toolkits dedicated to the following key planetary environments: Mars (in support ExoMars), comets (building on the expected success of the ESA Rosetta mission), and outer planets (in preparation for the ESA JUICE mission to be launched in 2022). This will give the European planetary science community new methods, interfaces, functionalities and/or plugins dedicated to planetary space weather in the tools and models available within the partner institutes. It will also create a novel event-diary toolkit aiming at predicting and detecting planetary events like meteor showers and impacts. A variety of tools (in the form of web applications, standalone software, or numerical models in various degrees of implementation) are available for tracing propagation of planetary and/or solar events through the Solar System and modelling the response of the planetary environment (surfaces, atmospheres, ionospheres, and magnetospheres) to those events. But these tools were not originally designed for planetary event prediction and space weather applications. So WP10 JRA4 "Planetary Space Weather Services" (PSWS) will provide the additional research and tailoring required to apply them for these purposes. The overall objectives of this JRA will be to review, test, improve and adapt methods and tools available within the partner institutes in order to make prototype planetary event and space weather services operational in Europe at the end of
Singer, H. J.; Onsager, T. G.; Rutledge, R.; Viereck, R. A.; Kunches, J.
Society's growing dependence on technologies and infrastructure susceptible to the consequences of space weather has given rise to increased attention at the highest levels of government as well as inspired the need for both research and improved space weather services. In part, for these reasons, the number one goal of the recent National Research Council report on a Decadal Strategy for Solar and Space Physics is to 'Determine the origins of the Sun's activity and predict the variations in the space environment.' Prediction of conditions in our space environment is clearly a challenge for both research and operations, and we require the near-term development and validation of models that have sufficient accuracy and lead time to be useful to those impacted by space weather. In this presentation, we will provide new scientific results of space weather conditions that have challenged space weather forecasters, and identify specific areas of research that can lead to improved capabilities. In addition, we will examine examples of customer impacts and requirements as well as the challenges to the operations community to establish metrics that enable the selection and transition of models and observations that can provide the greatest economic and societal benefit.
The ENLIL-based heliospheric modeling system enables faster-than-real-time simulations of corotating and transient disturbances. This hybrid system does not simulate origin of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) but uses appearance in coronagraphs, its geometric and kinematic parameters, and launches a CME-like structure into the solar wind computed using the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal model. Propagation and interaction in the heliosphere is then solved by a 3-D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code. This modeling system is operationally used at NOAA/SWPC, NASA/CCMC, UK/MetOffice, and Korea/KSWPC. In this presentation, we introduce the recent improvements that support modeling of the evolving background solar wind, launching of CME-like transients, and further facilitate comparison with in-situ and remote observations. Further, we introduce the project testbed system (http://heliowether.net) that has helped us to monitor the model development, verify robustness of new model features, and evaluate the prediction accuracy. Finally, we present results of the verification and validation studies, show improvements over the currently-used version, and illustrate broader applications of the new ENLIL version to support various heliospheric missions.
Tobiska, W.; Bouwer, D.; Schunk, R.; Garrett, H.; Mertens, C.; Bowman, B.
There have been notable successes during the past decade in the development of operational space environment systems. Examples include the Magnetospheric Specification Model (MSM) of the Earth's magnetosphere, 2000; SOLAR2000 (S2K) solar spectral irradiances, 2001; High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) neutral atmosphere densities, 2004; Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) ionosphere specification, 2006; Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) solar wind parameters, 2007; Communication Alert and Prediction System (CAPS) ionosphere, high frequency radio, and scintillation S4 index prediction, 2008; and GEO Alert and Prediction System (GAPS) geosynchronous environment satellite charging specification and forecast, 2008. Operational systems that are in active operational implementation include the Jacchia-Bowman 2006/2008 (JB2006/2008) neutral atmosphere, 2009, and the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) aviation radiation model using the Radiation Alert and Prediction System (RAPS), 2010. U.S. national agency and commercial assets will soon reach a state where specification and prediction will become ubiquitous and where coordinated management of the space environment and space weather will become a necessity. We describe the status of the CAPS, GAPS, RAPS, and JB2008 operational development. We additionally discuss the conditions that are laying the groundwork for space weather management and estimate the unfilled needs as we move beyond specification and prediction efforts.
Love, Jeffrey J.
Extreme space-weather events — intense solar and geomagnetic storms — have occurred in the past: most recently in 1859, 1921 and 1989. So scientists expect that, sooner or later, another extremely intense spaceweather event will strike Earth again. Such storms have the potential to cause widespread interference with and damage to technological systems. A National Academy of Sciences study projects that an extreme space-weather event could end up costing the American economy more than $1 trillion. The question now is whether or not we will take the actions needed to avoid such expensive consequences. Let’s assume that we do. Below is an imagined scenario of how, sometime in the future, an extreme space-weather event might play out.
global corona , CME initiation, solar energetic management strategy, and most importantly, we particles, inner magnetosphere, ionosphere- discuss the...many of them represented with multiple models. The SWMF is 2 I 2, ............. capable of simulating the Sun-Earth system from the solar corona to the...several moons, and comets of BATS-R-US the solar system, flux emergence from the The Block Adaptive Tree Solar -wind Roe photosphere to the corona [64
Jones, J. B. L.; Bentley, R. D.; Dyer, C.; Shaw, A.
In Europe, legislation requires the airline industry to monitor the occupational exposure of aircrew to cosmic radiation. However, there are other significant impacts of space weather phenomena on the technological systems used for day-to-day operations which need to be considered by the airlines. These were highlighted by the disruption caused to the industry by the period of significant solar activity in late October and early November 2003. Next generation aircraft will utilize increasingly complex avionics as well as expanding the performance envelopes. These and future generation platforms will require the development of a new air-space management infrastructure with improved position accuracy (for route navigation and landing in bad weather) and reduced separation minima in order to cope with the expected growth in air travel. Similarly, greater reliance will be placed upon satellites for command, control, communication and information (C3I) of the operation. However, to maximize effectiveness of this globally interoperable C3I and ensure seamless fusion of all components for a safe operation will require a greater understanding of the space weather affects, their risks with increasing technology, and the inclusion of space weather information into the operation. This paper will review space weather effects on air transport and the increasing risks for future operations cause by them. We will examine how well the effects can be predicted, some of the tools that can be used and the practicalities of using such predictions in an operational scenario. Initial results from the SOARS ESA Space Weather Pilot Project will also be discussed,
Glover, A.; Hilgers, A.; Daly, E.
Following the completion in 2001 of two parallel studies to consider the feasibility of a European Space Weather Programme ESA embarked upon a space weather pilot study with the goal of prototyping European space weather services and assessing the overall market for such within Europe This pilot project centred on a number of targeted service development activities supported by a common infrastructure and making use of only existing space weather assets Each service activity included clear participation from at least one identified service user who was requested to provide initial requirements and regular feedback during the operational phase of the service These service activities are now reaching the end of their 2-year development and testing phase and are now accessible each with an element of the service in the public domain see http www esa-spaceweathet net swenet An additional crucial element of the study was the inclusion of a comprehensive and independent analysis of the benefits both economic and strategic of embarking on a programme which would include the deployment of an infrastructure with space-based elements The results of this study will be reported together with their implication for future coordinated European activities in this field
Nutter, Paul; Manobianco, John
This report describes the Applied Meteorology Unit's objective verification of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 29-km eta model during separate warm and cool season periods from May 1996 through January 1998. The verification of surface and upper-air point forecasts was performed at three selected stations important for 45th Weather Squadron, Spaceflight Meteorology Group, and National Weather Service, Melbourne operational weather concerns. The statistical evaluation identified model biases that may result from inadequate parameterization of physical processes. Since model biases are relatively small compared to the random error component, most of the total model error results from day-to-day variability in the forecasts and/or observations. To some extent, these nonsystematic errors reflect the variability in point observations that sample spatial and temporal scales of atmospheric phenomena that cannot be resolved by the model. On average, Meso-Eta point forecasts provide useful guidance for predicting the evolution of the larger scale environment. A more substantial challenge facing model users in real time is the discrimination of nonsystematic errors that tend to inflate the total forecast error. It is important that model users maintain awareness of ongoing model changes. Such changes are likely to modify the basic error characteristics, particularly near the surface.
Mullinix, R.; Maddox, M. M.; Berrios, D.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Zheng, Y.
Space weather affects virtually all of NASA's endeavors, from robotic missions to human exploration. Knowledge and prediction of space weather conditions are therefore essential to NASA operations. The diverse nature of currently available space environment measurements and modeling products compels the need for a single access point to such information. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System provides this single point access along with the capability to collect and catalog a vast range of sources including both observational and model data. NASA Goddard Space Weather Research Center heavily utilizes the iSWA System daily for research, space weather model validation, and forecasting for NASA missions. iSWA provides the capabilities to view and analyze near real-time space weather data from any where in the world. This presentation will describe the technology behind the iSWA system and describe how to use the system for space weather research, forecasting, training, education, and sharing.
Wang, H.; Qu, M.; Shih, F.; Denker, C.; Gerbessiotis, A.; Lofdahl, M.; Rees, D.; Keller, C.
Solar activity is closely related to the near earth environment -- summarized descriptively as space weather. Changes in space weather have adverse effect on many aspects of life and systems on earth and in space. Real-time, high-quality data and data processing would be a key element to forecast space weather promptly and accurately. Recently, we obtained a funding from US National Science Foundation to apply innovative information technology for space weather prediction. (1) We use the technologies of image processing and pattern recognition, such as image morphology segmentation, Support Vector Machines (SVMs), and neural networks to detect and characterize three important solar activities in real-time: filament eruptions, flares, and emerging flux regions (EFRs). Combining the real time detection with the recent statistical study on the relationship among filament eruptions, flares, EFRs, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and geomagnetic storms, we are establishing real time report of solar events and automatic forecasting of earth directed CMEs and subsequent geomagnetic storms. (2) We combine state-of-art parallel computing techniques with phase diverse speckle imaging techniques, to yield near real-time diffraction limited images with a cadence of approximately 10 sec. We utilize the multiplicity of parallel paradigms to optimize the calculation of phase diverse speckle imaging to improve calculation speed. With such data, we can monitor flare producing active regions continuously and carry out targeted studies of the evolution and flows in flare producing active regions. (3) We are developing Web based software tools to post our processed data, events and forecasting in real time, and to be integrated with current solar activity and space weather prediction Web pages at BBSO. This will also be a part of Virtual Solar Observatory (VSO) being developed by the solar physics community. This research is supported by NSF ITR program.
Today, space weather is of important concern in many respects. Space weather phenomena are subject of extensive scientific research programmes and the consequences of space weather events are of great operational concern for a number of technologies including satellites, humans in space, and global positioning and communications. Due to the Earth's magnetic field, the high latitudes are most strongly affected by space weather phenomena. Naturally, monitoring and understanding of the high-latitude space environment is important for forecasting and modelling operational conditions. The Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory (SGO) was established as a magnetic observatory in 1913. With the sole exception of a year at the end of WWII, the record of geomagnetic field variations is continuous. Since the IGY in 1957, many other routine measurements have been added to the observatory's operations and today SGO is a highly versatile observatory. Here we will present examples of high-latitude space weather data from a selection of instruments including the Sodankylä ionosonde, the Finnish Riometer Chain, and the Tomography (GNSS) receiver chain. We invite collaboration and use of our data products. We will further outline the current EU Framework VII "Access to Research Infrastructures" project of SGO "LAPBIAT2."
Solar storms, which are expected to increase as the Sun nears the most active phase of the solar cycle, can disrupt a variety of technologies on which society relies. Speakers at a 22 June briefing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D. C., focused on how space weather can affect the Global Positioning System (GPS), which is used in a wide range of industries, including commercial air travel, agriculture, national security, and emergency response. Rocky Stone, chief technical pilot for United Airlines, noted that GPS allows more aircraft to be in airspace, saves fuel, and helps aircraft move safely on runways. “Improvements in space weather forecasting need to be pursued,” he said. Precision GPS has also “changed the whole nature of farming,” said Ron Hatch, Director of Navigation Systems, NavCom Technology/John Deere. GPS makes it possible for tractors to be driven in the most efficient paths and for fertilizer and water to be applied precisely to the areas that most need them. Space weather-induced degradation of GPS signals can cause significant loss to farms that rely on GPS. Elizabeth Zimmerman, Deputy Associate Administrator for the Office of Response and Recovery at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), described how FEMA relies on GPS for disaster recovery. The agency is developing an operations plan for dealing with space weather, she said.
during Solar Cycle 23, J. Geophys. Res. (accepted ) 2006.  M. Kartalev, M. Dryer , K. Grigorov, E. Stoimenova. Solar wind polytropic index...Magneto Hydrodynamics (MHD) discontinuities that occur due to the solar wind, and its effects on communications. 15. SUBJECT...TERMS EOARD, Communications, Space Weather, Solar Physics 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON MICHAEL KJ MILLIGAN, Lt Col
In September 1859, Earth was hit by a solar storm so powerful that it set telegraph offices on fire and sparked northern lights in the South Pacific. Historians call it the "Carrington Event," after English astronomer Richard Carrington, who witnessed the instigating solar flare on a projecting screen with his unaided eyes. Many consider this to be the birth of space weather.
Lanzerotti, Louis J.
In the 150 years since the advent of the first electrical communication system - the electrical telegraph - the diversity of communications technologies that are embedded within space-affected environments have vastly increased. The increasing sophistication of these communications technologies, and how their installation and operations may relate to the environments in which they are embedded, requires ever more sophisticated understanding of natural physical phenomena. At the same time, the business environment for most present-day communications technologies that are affected by space phenomena is very dynamic. The commercial and national security deployment and use of these technologies do not wait for optimum knowledge of possible environmental effects to be acquired before new technological embodiments are created, implemented, and marketed. Indeed, those companies that might foolishly seek perfectionist understanding of natural effects can be left behind by the marketplace. A well-considered balance is needed between seeking ever deeper understanding of physical phenomena and implementing `engineering' solutions to current crises. The research community must try to understand, and operate in, this dynamic environment.
Balan, N.; Skoug, R.; Tulasi Ram, S.; Rajesh, P. K.; Shiokawa, K.; Otsuka, Y.; Batista, I. S.; Ebihara, Y.; Nakamura, T.
Thanks to the work of a number of scientists who made it known that severe space weather can cause extensive social and economic disruptions in the modern high-technology society. It is therefore important to understand what determines the severity of space weather and whether it can be predicted. We present results obtained from the analysis of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), solar energetic particle (SEP) events, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), CME-magnetosphere coupling, and geomagnetic storms associated with the major space weather events since 1998 by combining data from the ACE and GOES satellites with geomagnetic parameters and the Carrington event of 1859, the Quebec event of 1989, and an event in 1958. The results seem to indicate that (1) it is the impulsive energy mainly due to the impulsive velocity and orientation of IMF Bz at the leading edge of the CMEs (or CME front) that determine the severity of space weather. (2) CMEs having high impulsive velocity (sudden nonfluctuating increase by over 275 km s-1 over the background) caused severe space weather (SvSW) in the heliosphere (failure of the solar wind ion mode of Solar Wind Electron Proton Alpha Monitor in ACE) probably by suddenly accelerating the high-energy particles in the SEPs ahead directly or through the shocks. (3) The impact of such CMEs which also show the IMF Bz southward from the leading edge caused SvSW at the Earth including extreme geomagnetic storms of mean DstMP < -250 nT during main phases, and the known electric power outages happened during some of these SvSW events. (4) The higher the impulsive velocity, the more severe the space weather, like faster weather fronts and tsunami fronts causing more severe damage through impulsive action. (5) The CMEs having IMF Bz northward at the leading edge do not seem to cause SvSW on Earth, although, later when the IMF Bz turns southward, they can lead to super geomagnetic storms of intensity (Dstmin) less than even -400 nT.
Currently there is an active international flotilla of spacecraft that continuously observe and measure the dynamic space environment that surrounds our planet. These spacecraft have remote sensors for photons and particles, and in situ instruments for plasmas, fields and particles. They provide the data input to guide, motivate, and validate predictive space weather models used by decision makers and for a myriad of scientific investigations. This talk will briefly survey the current Geospace missions relevant to space weather, what they observe, and why. This talk will conclude with the description of two most significant scientific challenges that must be met in order to advance our understanding and prediction of space weather, and its impacts to society. They are the genesis and evolution of ionospheric variability and the interplanetary magnetic field. Concepts of possible solutions for these two challenges will be discussed.
Strong, Keith; Saba, Julia; Kucera, Therese
The Sun is a complex system of systems and until recently, less than half of its surface was observable at any given time and then only from afar. New observational techniques and modeling capabilities are giving us a fresh perspective of the solar interior and how our Sun works as a variable star. This revolution in solar observations and modeling provides us with the exciting prospect of being able to use a vastly increased stream of solar data taken simultaneously from several different vantage points to produce more reliable and prompt space weather forecasts. Solar variations that cause identifiable space weather effects do not happen only on solar-cycle timescales from decades to centuries; there are also many shorter-term events that have their own unique space weather effects and a different set of challenges to understand and predict, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind variations.
Strong, Keith; Saba, Julia; Kucera, Therese
The Sun is a complex system of systems and until recently, less than half of its surface was observable at any given time and then only from afar. New observational techniques and modeling capabilities are giving us a fresh perspective of the solar interior and how our Sun works as a variable star. This revolution in solar observations and modeling provides us with the exciting prospect of being able to use a vastly increased stream of solar data taken simultaneously from several different vantage points to produce more reliable and prompt space weather forecasts. Solar variations that cause identifiable space weather effects do not happen only on solar-cycle timescales from decades to centuries; there are also many shorter-term events that have their own unique space weather effects and a different set of challenges to understand and predict, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind variations
Schunk, R. W.; Scherliess, L.; Eccles, V.; Gardner, L. C.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.; Pi, X.; Mannucci, A. J.; Butala, M.; Wilson, B. D.; Komjathy, A.; Wang, C.; Rosen, G.
The goal of the Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) program is to improve space weather specification and forecasting with ensemble modeling. Space weather can have detrimental effects on a variety of civilian and military systems and operations, and many of the applications pertain to the ionosphere and upper atmosphere. Space weather can affect over-the-horizon radars, HF communications, surveying and navigation systems, surveillance, spacecraft charging, power grids, pipelines, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA's) Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). Because of its importance, numerous space weather forecasting approaches are being pursued, including those involving empirical, physics-based, and data assimilation models. Clearly, if there are sufficient data, the data assimilation modeling approach is expected to be the most reliable, but different data assimilation models can produce different results. Therefore, like the meteorology community, we created a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) for the Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics (ITE) system that is based on different data assimilation models. The MEPS ensemble is composed of seven physics-based data assimilation models for the ionosphere, ionosphere-plasmasphere, thermosphere, high-latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics, and middle to low latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics. Hence, multiple data assimilation models can be used to describe each region. A selected storm event that was reconstructed with four different data assimilation models covering the middle and low latitude ionosphere is presented and discussed. In addition, the effect of different data types on the reconstructions is shown.
Fisher, G.; Jones, B.
The American Meteorological Society and SolarMetrics Limited are conducting a policy research project leading to recommendations that will increase the safety, reliability, and efficiency of the nation's airline operations through more effective use of space weather forecasts and information. This study, which is funded by a 3-year National Science Foundation grant, also has the support of the Federal Aviation Administration and the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) who is planning the Next Generation Air Transportation System. A major component involves interviewing and bringing together key people in the aviation industry who deal with space weather information. This research also examines public and industrial strategies and plans to respond to space weather information. The focus is to examine policy issues in implementing effective application of space weather services to the management of the nation's aviation system. The results from this project will provide government and industry leaders with additional tools and information to make effective decisions with respect to investments in space weather research and services. While space weather can impact the entire aviation industry, and this project will address national and international issues, the primary focus will be on developing a U.S. perspective for the airlines.
Krausmann, Elisabeth; Andersson, Emmelie; Murtagh, William; Mitchison, Neil
The impact of space weather on the power grid is a tangible and recurring threat with potentially serious consequences on society. Of particular concern is the long-distance high-voltage power grid, which is vulnerable to the effects of geomagnetic storms that can damage or destroy equipment or lead to grid collapse. In order to launch a dialogue on the topic and encourage authorities, regulators and operators in European countries and North America to learn from each other, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, and NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Centre, with the contribution of the UK Civil Contingencies Secretariat, jointly organised a workshop on the impact of extreme space weather on the power grid on 29-30 October 2013. Being structured into 6 sessions, the topics addressed were space-weather phenomena and the dynamics of their impact on the grid, experiences with prediction and now-casting in the USA and in Europe, risk assessment and preparedness, as well as policy implications arising from increased awareness of the space-weather hazard. The main workshop conclusions are: • There is increasing awareness of the risk of space-weather impact among power-grid operators and regulators and some countries consider it a priority risk to be addressed. • The predictability of space-weather phenomena is still limited and relies, in part, on data from ageing satellites. NOAA is working with NASA to launch the DSCOVR solar wind spacecraft, the replacement for the ACE satellite, in early 2015. • In some countries, models and tools for GIC prediction and grid impact assessment have been developed in collaboration with national power grids but equipment vulnerability models are scarce. • Some countries have successfully hardened their transmission grids to space-weather impact and sustained relatively little or no damage due to currents induced by past moderate space-weather events. • While there is preparedness
Presentation involves educating Goddard Space Weather staff about what our needs are, what type of aircraft we have and to learn what we have done in the past to minimize our exposure to Space Weather Hazards.
Pizzo, V. J.
SHINE (Solar, Heliospheric, and INterplanetary Environment) is an affiliation of researchers dedicated to promoting enhanced understanding of and predictive capabilities for solar disturbances that propagate to Earth. Like its sister organizations GEM and CEDAR, it is sponsored by NSF and its specific goal is to promote discussion, development, and dissemination of ideas and results related to interplanetary aspects of space weather research. Its main activities include facilitating collaborative research campaigns with related groups and conducting an annual workshop devoted to specific and timely space weather questions. In conjunction with the SPD meeting, this year's workshop highlights solar aspects of the Sun-Earth connection theme, but the group maintains strong interests in the generation and propagation of energetic particles in the interplanetary medium and the solar wind - magnetosphere interaction.
Baratta, G.; Kanuchova, Z.; Palumbo, M. E.; Sangiorgio, I.; Strazzulla, G.
We present some results of an ongoing experimental research aimed at simulating the effects of ion bombardment (space weathering) in solid objects of the Solar System. In particular we have investigated the color changes induced by the ion bombardment in the UV-Vis-IR In this contribution we focus on materials (silicates) and spectral range (200-300 nanometers) particularly relevant to the study of the Mercury's surface.
Scro, K. D.; Quigley, S.
Developing and transitioning operational products for any customer base is a complicated process. This is the case for operational space weather products and services for the USAF. This presentation will provide information on the current state of affairs regarding the process required to take an idea from the research field to the real-time application of 24-hour space weather operations support. General principles and specific issues are discussed and will include: customer requirements, organizations in-play, funding, product types, acquisition of engineering and validation data, security classification, version control, and various important changes that occur during the process. The author's viewpoint is as an individual developing space environmental system-impact products for the US Air Force: 1) as a member of its primary research organization (Air Force Research Laboratory), 2) working with its primary space environment technology transition organization (Technology Application Division of the Space and Missile Systems Center, SMC/WXT), and 3) delivering to the primary sponsor/customer of such system-impact products (Air Force Space Command). The experience and focus is obviously on specific military operationalization process and issues, but most of the paradigm may apply to other (commercial) enterprises as well.
Whitman, K.; Bindi, V.; Chati, M.; Consolandi, C.; Corti, C.
The Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS-02) is a state-of-the-art space detector that measures particles in the energy range of hundreds of MeV to a few TeV. AMS-02 has been installed onboard of the International Space Station (ISS) since May 2011 where it will operate for the duration of the station. To date, there is an abundance of space-based solar data collected in the low energy regimes, whereas there are very few direct measurements of higher energy particles available. AMS-02 is capable of measuring arrival time and composition of the highest energy SEPs in space. It is crucial to build a better knowledge base regarding the most energetic and potentially harmful events. We are currently developing a program to employ AMS-02 as a real-time space weather observatory. SEPs with higher energies are usually accelerated during a short period of time and they are the first particles to reach the Earth. AMS-02, measuring these highest energy SEPs, can alert the onset of an SEP event. During the past two years of operation, we have identified two main quantities in AMS-02 that are particularly sensitive to the arrival of SEPs: the detector livetime and the transition radiation detector (TRD) event size. By monitoring the detector livetime and the TRD event size, AMS-02 can pinpoint in real-time the arrival of SEPs inside the Earth's magnetosphere operating as a space weather detector.
Russell, R. M.; Johnson, R. M.
Magnetic and electric fields and phenomena play important roles in various situations in astronomy, planetary science, and Earth science. Students often lack an intuitive sense of electromagnetic phenomena, and therefore struggle with the complexities of planetary and stellar magnetic fields. Hands-on magnetism activities can provide students with an intuitive grasp of the basics of magnetism, preparing them for more challenging conceptual studies of magnetic phenomena. For the past six years, we have been presenting a professional development workshop for teachers covering the topics of magnetism and space weather. The workshop, which has been conducted more than 20 times for a range of audiences, blends together several simple hands-on activities, background information on space weather and geomagnetism, a collection of images, animations, and interactives that illustrate important concepts, and guidance about specific links between these topics and national science education standards. These workshops have been very well-received, and have consistently been rated highly by participants in surveys. We believe the methods used in these workshops can be applied to other topics in science education and to astronomy and Earth science education specifically. In this presentation, we will describe our magnetism and space weather workshop, including some of the hands-on activities. We will describe successful aspects of the workshop and comment on ways we think this approach could be replicated for other topics. We will also display some of the interactives, graphics, and animations shown during the workshops. Resources have been added to the workshop over the years in response to recurring questions from teachers; we will comment on this process and how it might be applied to other topics. The activities and extensive background content used or referenced in the workshop are available for free on the Windows to the Universe web site (www.windows2universe.org). Hands on
Asorey, Hernan; Dasso, Sergio
The LAGO project is a non-centralized and distributed collaborative network composed by more than 30 institutions from nine Latin American countries. It is an extended cosmic ray observatory formed by water Cherenkov detectors (WCDs), that measure with extreme detail the temporal evolution of the radiation flux at ground level. It is mainly oriented to make basic research on three branches: extreme universe, space weather, and atmospheric radiation at ground level. The LAGO WCDs network spans over different sites located at significantly different latitudes (from equatorial latitudes up to the antartic region) and different altitudes (from sea level up to more than 5000 meters over sea level), covering a huge range of geomagnetic rigidity cut-offs and atmospheric absorption/reaction levels. Thus, using observations from the LAGO network, it is possible to study the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays from combining different ground sites, in particular it is possible to study the long-term modulation as well as transient events. This presentation will introduce the LAGO Space Weather Program. In particular, real data of the Forbush decrease event of March 2012 will be presented to show how the LAGO network of WCDs can complement present measurements of space weather related phenomena from ground level. This study will be combined with numerical simulations of the expected flux at each site and with the analysis of the interplanetary conditions from 'in situ' observations recorded by spacecraft in the solar wind.
Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.; Shibasaki, K.
Severe space weather is characterized by intense particle radiation from the Sun and severe geomagnetic storm caused by magnetized solar plasma arriving at Earth. Intense particle radiation is almost always caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) traveling from the Sun at super-Alfvenic speeds leading to fast-mode MHD shocks and particle acceleration by the shocks. When a CME arrives at Earth, it can interact with Earth's magnetopause resulting in solar plasma entry into the magnetosphere and a geomagnetic storm depending on the magnetic structure of the CME. Particle radiation starts affecting geospace as soon as the CMEs leave the Sun and the geospace may be immersed in the radiation for several days. On the other hand, the geomagnetic storm happens only upon arrival of the CME at Earth. The requirements for the production of particles and magnetic storms by CMEs are different in a number of respects: solar source location, CME magnetic structure, conditions in the ambient solar wind, and shock-driving ability of CMEs. Occasionally, intense geomagnetic storms are caused by corotating interaction regions (CIRs) that form in the interplanetary space when the fast solar wind from coronal holes overtakes the slow wind from the quiet regions. CIRs also accelerate particles, but when they reach several AU from the Sun, so their impact on Earth's space environment is not significant. In addition to these plasma effects, solar flares that accompany CMEs also produce excess ionization in the ionosphere causing sudden ionospheric disturbances. This paper highlights these space weather effects using space weather events observed by space and ground based instruments during of solar cycles 23 and 24.
Crosby, Norma; Bothmer, Volker; Facius, Rainer; Grießmeier, Jean-Mathias; Moussas, Xenophon; Panasyuk, Mikhail; Romanova, Natalia; Withers, Paul
Interplanetary travel is not just a science fiction scenario anymore, but a goal as realistic as when our ancestors started to cross the oceans. With curiosity driving humans to visit other planets in our solar system, the understanding of interplanetary space weather is a vital subject today, particularly because the physical conditions faced during a space vehicle's transit to its targeted solar system object are crucial to a mission's success and vital to the health and safety of spacecraft crew, especially when scheduling planned extravehicular activities.
The integration of science and policy has been a challenge, or even absent, in graduate research programs at universities. While some universities offer science policy courses on a broad scale, offering science policy courses catered to graduate science students has been a major challenge for various reasons. This presentation will discuss a project aimed at integrating policy into a space weather curriculum. The goal is to educate the next generation of space weather scientists to gain an understanding and appreciation of policy so that they can assist policy makers to make sound public policy decisions. Space weather is a field where policy, societal, and economic aspects are becoming increasingly important as our society is becoming more dependent on activities and technology that are affected by conditions in the space environment. Solar and geomagnetic events can impact many different sectors that affect our daily lives--navigation, satellites, communications, pipelines, electric power systems, and human health in space and flight. A new generation of scientists are increasingly interested in the social and policy impacts of their science. It is important that young scientists are prepared to fully participate in the challenging opportunities that lie ahead, including communicating to policy makers, making sound public policy decisions, and communicating science to the public. Although this project is focused on the development of a space weather policy curriculum, it is anticipated that the project will serve as a model for broader science policy curricula.
Lucey, P. G.; Riner, M. A.
The optical effects of exposure of lunar materials to space are well-characterized (e.g ) and similar effects are expected on Mercury. In the lunar case perhaps the most notable effect is strong reddening of lunar materials relative to powdered lunar rocks. There is consensus that this is due to the effect of extremely fine grained (10’s of nm) particles of iron that occur in rims on mineral grains generated during micrometeorite impact and sputtering . Noble et al. 2007  studied silica gel samples infused with fine grained iron and observed lunar-like optical effects. Hapke 2001  used Maxwell-Garnett theory to combine the optical properties of iron metal with the optical properties of the host lunar material to successfully produce the reddening and darkening effects observed. Lucey and Noble 2008  tested the Hapke 2001 formulation against the Noble et al. (2007) data and found good agreement when particles were small with respect to the wavelength. However, particles that were larger than about 50 nm showed sharp deviations from the predictions of the Hapke 2001 treatment. At present there is no theoretical treatment of iron metal inclusions that darken, but do not redden. The Hapke 2001 formulation for modeling the optical effect of iron particles within grains relates the complex index of refraction of the host mineral, iron and particle size of the host to the single scattering albedo to account for absorption due to subwavelength particle inclusions, and adds this to his previously defined absorption coefficient. This absorbing effect, based on equivalent medium Maxwell-Garnett theory, assumes the particles are much smaller than the wavelength, and hence has no particle size dependence. While  showed Hapke’s model for space weathering works well for very small particles, the larger particles in the Noble et al. 2007 experiments did not conform well to predictions. To introduce a wavelength dependent term we replace Hapke’s term that
André, Nicolas; Grande, Manuel
Under Horizon 2020, the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure (EPN2020-RI) will include an entirely new Virtual Access Service, WP5 VA1 "Planetary Space Weather Services" (PSWS) that will extend the concepts of space weather and space situational awareness to other planets in our Solar System and in particular to spacecraft that voyage through it. VA1 will make five entirely new 'toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: a general planetary space weather toolkit, as well as three toolkits dedicated to the following key planetary environments: Mars (in support ExoMars), comets (building on the expected success of the ESA Rosetta mission), and outer planets (in preparation for the ESA JUICE mission to be launched in 2022). This will give the European planetary science community new methods, interfaces, functionalities and/or plugins dedicated to planetary space weather in the tools and models available within the partner institutes. It will also create a novel event-diary toolkit aiming at predicting and detecting planetary events like meteor showers and impacts. A variety of tools (in the form of web applications, standalone software, or numerical models in various degrees of implementation) are available for tracing propagation of planetary and/or solar events through the Solar System and modelling the response of the planetary environment (surfaces, atmospheres, ionospheres, and magnetospheres) to those events. But these tools were not originally designed for planetary event prediction and space weather applications. So WP10 JRA4 "Planetary Space Weather Services" (PSWS) will provide the additional research and tailoring required to apply them for these purposes. The overall objectives of this Joint Research Aactivities will be to review, test, improve and adapt methods and tools available within the partner institutes in order to make prototype planetary event and space weather services operational in
Manobianco, John; Zack, John W.; Taylor, Gregory E.
This paper describes the capabilities and operational utility of a version of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) that has been developed to support operational weather forecasting at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS). The implementation of local, mesoscale modeling systems at KSC/CCAS is designed to provide detailed short-range (less than 24 h) forecasts of winds, clouds, and hazardous weather such as thunderstorms. Short-range forecasting is a challenge for daily operations, and manned and unmanned launches since KSC/CCAS is located in central Florida where the weather during the warm season is dominated by mesoscale circulations like the sea breeze. For this application, MASS has been modified to run on a Stardent 3000 workstation. Workstation-based, real-time numerical modeling requires a compromise between the requirement to run the system fast enough so that the output can be used before expiration balanced against the desire to improve the simulations by increasing resolution and using more detailed physical parameterizations. It is now feasible to run high-resolution mesoscale models such as MASS on local workstations to provide timely forecasts at a fraction of the cost required to run these models on mainframe supercomputers. MASS has been running in the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) at KSC/CCAS since January 1994 for the purpose of system evaluation. In March 1995, the AMU began sending real-time MASS output to the forecasters and meteorologists at CCAS, Spaceflight Meteorology Group (Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas), and the National Weather Service (Melbourne, Florida). However, MASS is not yet an operational system. The final decision whether to transition MASS for operational use will depend on a combination of forecaster feedback, the AMU's final evaluation results, and the life-cycle costs of the operational system.
Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dasso, Sergio; Gonzalez-Esparza, Americo
The present work is a synopsis of a three-part review on space weather in Latin America. The first paper (part 1) comprises the evolution of several Latin American institutions investing in space science since the 1960's, focusing on the solar-terrestrial interactions, which today is commonly called space weather. Despite recognizing advances in space research in all of Latin America, this part 1 is restricted to the development observed in three countries in particular (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico), due to the fact that these countries have recently developed operational centers for monitoring space weather. The review starts with a brief summary of the first groups to start working with space science in Latin America. This first part of the review closes with the current status and the research interests of these groups, which are described in relation to the most significant works and challenges of the next decade in order to aid in the solving of space weather open issues. The second paper (part 2) comprises a summary of scientific challenges in space weather research that are considered to be open scientific questions and how they are being addressed in terms of instrumentation by the international community, including the Latin American groups. We also provide an inventory of the networks and collaborations being constructed in Latin America, including details on the data processing, capabilities and a basic description of the resulting variables. These instrumental networks currently used for space science research are gradually being incorporated into the space weather monitoring data pipelines as their data provides key variables for monitoring and forecasting space weather, which allow these centers to monitor space weather and issue warnings and alerts. The third paper (part 3) presents the decision process for the spinning off of space weather prediction centers from space science groups with our interpretation of the reason/opportunities that leads to
Minow, Joe; Spann, James F.; Edward, David L.; Burns, Howard D.; Gallagher, Dennis; Xapos, Mike; DeGroh, Kim
The growing need for coordination of the many aspects of space environments is directly related to our increasing dependence on space assets. An obvious result is that there is a need for a coordinated effort to organize and make accessible the increasing number of space environment products that include space environment models and observations, material testing, and forecasting tools. This paper outlines a concept to establish a NASA-level Applied Spaceflight Environments (ASE) office that will provide coordination and funding for sustained multi-program support in three technical areas; (1) natural environments characterization and modeling, (2) environmental effects on materials and systems, (3) and operational and forecasting space environments modeling. Additionally the ASE office will serve as an entry point of contact for external users who wish to take advantage of data and assets associated with space environments, including space weather.
Denig, W. F.; Mabie, J. J.; Horan, K.; Clark, C.
The National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is primarily responsible for scientific data stewardship of operational space weather data from NOAA's fleet of environmental satellites in geostationary and polar, low-earth orbits. In addition to this and as the former World Data Center for Solar Terrestrial Physics from 1957 to 2011 NGDC acquired a large variety of solar and space environmental data in differing formats including paper records and on film. Management of this heterogeneous collection of environmental data is a continued responsibility of NGDC as a participant in the new World Data System. Through the former NOAA Climate Data Modernization Program many of these records were converted to digital format and are readily available online. However, reduced funding and staff have put a strain on NGDC's ability to effectively steward these historical datasets, some of which are unique and, in particular cases, were the basis of fundamental scientific breakthroughs in our understanding of the near-earth space environment. In this talk, I will provide an overview of the historical space weather datasets which are currently managed by NGDC and discuss strategies for preserving these data during these fiscally stressing times.
De Nardin, C. M.; Gonzalez-Esparza, A.; Dasso, S.
We present an overview on the Space Weather in Latin America, highlighting the main findings from our review the recent advances in the space science investigations in Latin America focusing in the solar-terrestrial interactions, modernly named space weather, which leaded to the creation of forecast centers. Despite recognizing advances in the space research over the whole Latin America, this review is restricted to the evolution observed in three countries (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico) only, due to the fact that these countries have recently developed operational center for monitoring the space weather. The work starts with briefly mentioning the first groups that started the space science in Latin America. The current status and research interest of such groups are then described together with the most referenced works and the challenges for the next decade to solve space weather puzzles. A small inventory of the networks and collaborations being built is also described. Finally, the decision process for spinning off the space weather prediction centers from the space science groups is reported with an interpretation of the reason/opportunities that lead to it. Lastly, the constraints for the progress in the space weather monitoring, research, and forecast are listed with recommendations to overcome them.
Groves, K. M.
Space weather generally refers to heliophysical phenomena or events that produce a negative impact on manmade systems. While many space weather events originate with impulsive disturbances on the sun, others result from complex internal interactions in the ionosphere-thermosphere system. The reliance of mankind on satellite-based services continues to increase rapidly, yet the global capacity for sensing space weather in the ionosphere seems headed towards decline. A number of recent ionospheric-focused space-based missions are either presently, or soon-to-be, no longer available, and the end of the multi-decade Defense Meteorological Satellite Program is now in sight. The challenge facing the space weather community is how to maintain or increase sensing capabilities in an operational environment constrained by a decreasing numbers of sensors. The upcoming launch of COSMIC-2 in 2016/2018 represents the most significant new capability planned for the future. GNSS RO data has some benefit for background ionospheric models, particularly over regions where ground-based GNSS TEC measurements are unavailable, but the space weather community has a dire need to leverage such missions for far more knowledge of the ionosphere, and specifically for information related to space weather impacts. Meanwhile, the number of ground-based GNSS sensors worldwide has increased substantially, yet progress instrumenting some vastly undersampled regions, such as Africa, remains slow. In fact, the recent loss of support for many existing ground stations in such areas under the former Scintillation Network Decision Aid (SCINDA) program may actually result in a decrease in such sensing sites over the next 1-2 years, abruptly reversing a positive trend established over the last decade. Here we present potential solutions to the challenges these developments pose to the space weather enterprise. Specific topics include modeling advances required to detect and accurately characterize
Reames, Donald V.; Tylka, Allan J.; Ng, Chee K.
The solar energetic particles (SEPs) of consequence to space weather are accelerated at shock waves driven out from the Sun by fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In the large events, these great shocks fill half of the heliosphere. SEP intensity profiles change appearance with longitude. Events with significant intensities of greater than ten MeV protons occur at an average rate of approx. 13 per year near solar maximum and several events with high intensities of > 100 McV protons occur each decade. As particles stream out along magnetic field lines from a shock near the Sun, they generate waves that scatter subsequent particles. At high intensities, wave growth throttles the flow below the 'streaming limit.' However, if the shock maintains its strength, particle intensities can rise above this limit to a peak when the shock itself passes over the observer creating a 'delayed' radiation hazard, even for protons with energies up to approx. one GeV. The streaming limit makes us blind to the intensities at the oncoming shock, however, heavier elements such as He, O, and Fe probe the shape of the wave spectrum, and variation in abundances of these elements allow us to evade the limit and probe conditions at the shock, with the aid of detailed modeling. At high energies, spectra steepen to form a spectral 'knee'. The location of the proton spectral knee can vary from approx. ten MeV to approx. one GeV, depending on shock conditions, greatly affecting the radiation hazard. Hard spectra are a serious threat to astronauts, placing challenging requirements for shielding, especially on long-duration missions to the moon or Mars.
How would the US respond to a clandestine attack that disabled one of our satellites? How would we know that it was an attack, not a natural failure? The goal of space weather programs as applied to space protection are simple: Provide a rapid and reliable assessment of the probability that satellite or system failure was caused by the space environment. Achieving that goal is not as simple. However, great strides are being made on a number of fronts. We will report on recent successes in providing rapid, automated anomaly/attack assessment for the penetrating radiation environment in the Earth's radiation belts. We have previously reported on the Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) that was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to assess hazards posed by the natural and by nuclear radiation belts. This year we will report on recent developments that are moving this program from the research, test, and evaluation phases to real-time implementation and application. We will discuss the challenges of leveraging space environment data sets for applications that are beyond the scope of mission requirements, the challenges of moving data from where they exist to where they are needed, the challenges of turning data into actionable information, and how those challenges were overcome. We will discuss the state-of-the-art as it exists in 2012 including the new capabilities that have been enabled and the limitations that still exist. We will also discuss how currently untapped data resources could advance the state-of-the-art and the future steps for implementing automatic real-time anomaly forensics.
Moore, Ronald; Sterling, Alphonse; Robe, Nick; Falconer, David; Cirtain, Jonathan
-plasma component of coronal X-ray jets. This favors the idea that Type-II spicules are miniature counterparts of coronal X-ray jets. In Moore et al (2011, ApJ, 731, L18), we pointed out that if Type-II spicules are magnetic eruptions that work like coronal X-ray jets, they carry an area-averaged mechanical energy flux of approximately 7x10)(exp 5) erg cm(exp -2) s(exp-1) into the corona in the form of MHD waves and jet outflow, enough to power the heating of the global corona and solar wind. On this basis, from our observations of mini-filament eruptions in blowout X-ray jets, we infer that magnetic explosions of the type that have erupting filaments in them are the main engines of both (1) the steady solar wind and (2) the CMEs that produce the most severe space weather by blasting out through the corona and solar wind, making solar energetic particle storms, and bashing the Earth's magnetosphere. We conclude that in focusing on prominences and filament eruptions, Einar had his eye on the main bet for understanding what powers all space weather, both the extreme and the normal.
Ishii, Mamoru; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Watari, Shinichi; Shinagawa, Hiroyuki; Tsugawa, Takuya; Kubo, Yuki
Operational space weather forecast is for contribution to social infrastructure than for academic interests. These user need will determine the target of research, e.g., the precision level, spatial and temporal resolution and/or required lead time. We, NICT, aim two target in the present mid-term strategic plan, which are (1) forecast of ionospheric disturbance influencing to satellite positioning, and (2) forecast of disturbance in radiation belt influencing to satellite operation. We have our own observation network and develop empirical and numerical models for achieving each target. However in actual situation, it is much difficult to know the user needs quantitatively. Most of space weather phenomena makes the performance of social infrastructure poor, for example disconnect of HF communication, increase of GNSS error. Most of organizations related to these operation are negative to open these information. We have personal interviews to solve this issue. In this interview, we try to collect incident information related to space weather in each field, and to retrieve which space weather information is necessary for users. In this presentation we will introduce our research and corresponding new service, in addition to our recent scientific results.
Functions and Ensembles to Forecast lonospheric and Thermosphere Space Weather 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER FA9550-12-1-0265 5c. PROGRAM...Wind Velocity, Ionosphere, Thermosphere, Space Weather 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT UU 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 10 19a...and realistic. • The ability of an ensemble-driven ionosphere-thermosphere model to “predict” space weather needs to be proven. This will be done
Mavromichalaki, H.; Souvatzoglou, G.; Sarlanis, C.; Mariatos, G.; Plainaki, C.; Gerontidou, M.; Belov, A.; Eroshenko, E.; Yanke, V.
Relativistic (galactic and solar) cosmic rays (CR) registered by neutron monitors can play a useful key-role in space weather storms forecasting and in the specification of magnetic properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), shocks and ground level enhancements (GLEs). In order to produce a real-time prediction of space weather phenomena, only real-time data from a neutron monitor network should be employed. Recently in Athens cosmic-ray station a real-time data collection and acquisition system has been created in collaboration with the cosmic ray group of IZMIRAN. This system collects data in real-time mode from about 15 real-time cosmic ray stations by using the internet. The main server in Athens station collects 5-min and hourly cosmic ray data. The measurements of all stations are being processed automatically while converted into a suitable form, so as to be serviceably for forecasting purposes. All programs have been written in an expandable form, in order to upgrade the network of real-time neutron monitors with the biggest possible number of stations, easily. Programs which make use of these data for forecasting studies are already running in experimental mode. The increased number of NM stations operating in real time provides a good basis for using Neutron Monitor network as a tool of forecasting the arrival of the interplanetary disturbances at the Earth.
Schrijver, C. J.; Rabanal, J. P.
We present an analysis of the users of space weather information based on 2783 responses to an online survey among subscribers of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center e-mail services. The survey requested information focused on the three NOAA space weather scales: geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, and radio blackouts. Space weather information is most commonly obtained for reasons of human safety and continuity or reliability of operations. The information is primarily used for situational awareness, as aid to understand anomalies, to avoid impacts on current and near-future operations by implementing mitigating strategies, and to prepare for potential near-future impacts that might occur in conjunction with contingencies that include electric power outages or GPS perturbations. Interest in, anticipated impacts from, and responses to the three main categories of space weather are quite uniform across societal sectors. Approximately 40% of the respondents expect serious to very serious impacts from space weather events if no action were taken to mitigate or in the absence of adequate space weather information. The impacts of space weather are deemed to be substantially reduced because of the availability of, and their response to, space weather forecasts and alerts. Current and near-future space weather conditions are generally highly valued, considered useful, and generally, though not fully, adequate to avoid or mitigate societal impacts. We conclude that even among those receiving space weather information, there is considerable uncertainty about the possible impacts of space weather and thus about how to act on the space weather information that is provided.
Ma, Fuli; Zou, Ziming
Various applications indicate a need of permanent space weather information. The diversity of available instruments enables a big variety of products. As an indispensable part of space weather satellite operation system, space weather data processing system is more complicated than before. The information handled by the data processing system has been used in more and more fields such as space weather monitoring and space weather prediction models. In the past few years, many satellites have been launched by China. The data volume downlinked by these satellites has achieved the so-called big data level and it will continue to grow fast in the next few years due to the implementation of many new space weather programs. Because of the huge amount of data, the current infrastructure is no longer incapable of processing data timely, so we proposed a new space weather data processing system (SWDPS) based on the architecture of cloud computing. Similar to Hadoop, SWDPS decomposes the tasks into smaller tasks which will be executed by many different work nodes. Control Center in SWDPS, just like NameNode and JobTracker within Hadoop which is the bond between the data and the cluster, will establish work plan for the cluster once a client submits data. Control Center will allocate node for the tasks and the monitor the status of all tasks. As the same of TaskTrakcer, Compute Nodes in SWDPS are the salves of Control Center which are responsible for calling the plugins(e.g., dividing and sorting plugins) to execute the concrete jobs. They will also manage all the tasks’ status and report them to Control Center. Once a task fails, a Compute Node will notify Control Center. Control Center decides what to do then; it may resubmit the job elsewhere, it may mark that specific record as something to avoid, and it may even blacklist the Compute Node as unreliable. In addition to these modules, SWDPS has a different module named Data Service which is used to provide file
Rouillard, A. P.; Pinto, R. F.; Brun, A. S.; Briand, C.; Bourdarie, S.; Dudok De Wit, T.; Amari, T.; Blelly, P.-L.; Buchlin, E.; Chambodut, A.; Claret, A.; Corbard, T.; Génot, V.; Guennou, C.; Klein, K. L.; Koechlin, L.; Lavarra, M.; Lavraud, B.; Leblanc, F.; Lemorton, J.; Lilensten, J.; Lopez-Ariste, A.; Marchaudon, A.; Masson, S.; Pariat, E.; Reville, V.; Turc, L.; Vilmer, N.; Zucarello, F. P.
We present a short review of space-weather tools and services developed and maintained by the French space-physics community. They include unique data from ground-based observatories, advanced numerical models, automated identification and tracking tools, a range of space instrumentation and interconnected virtual observatories. The aim of the article is to highlight some advances achieved in this field of research at the national level over the last decade and how certain assets could be combined to produce better space-weather tools exploitable by space-weather centres and customers worldwide. This review illustrates the wide range of expertise developed nationally but is not a systematic review of all assets developed in France.
Malandraki, Olga E.
Space Weather Research carried out in the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), within the SEPServer and COMESEP projects under the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-SPACE) of the European Union (EU) is presented. Results and services that these projects provide to the whole scientific community as well as stakeholders are underlined. NOA strongly contributes in terms of crucial Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) dataset provided, data analysis and SEP catalogue items provided as well as comparative results of the various components of the project server, greatly facilitating the investigation of SEPs and their origin. SEP research highlights carried out at NOA are also presented, used to test and validate the particle SEP model developed and incorporated within the SEP forecasting tools of the COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP) Space Weather Alert System, i.e. the First European Alert System for geomagnetic storms and SEP radiation hazards.
Fry, Dan J.; Lee, Kerry; Zapp, Neal; Barzilla, Janet; Dunegan, Audrey; Johnson, Steve; Stoffle, Nicholas
Management of crew exposure to radiation is a major concern for manned spaceflight and will be even more important for the modern concept of longer-duration exploration. The inherent protection afforded to astronauts by the magnetic field of the Earth in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) makes operations on the space shuttle or space station very different from operations during an exploration mission. In order to experience significant radiation-derived Loss of Mission (LOM) or Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for LEO operations, one is almost driven to dictate extreme duration or to dictate an extreme sequence of solar activity. Outside of the geo-magnetosphere, however, this scenario changes dramatically. Exposures to the same event on the ISS and in free space, for example, may differ by orders of magnitude. This change in magnitude, coupled with the logistical constraints present in implementing any practical operational mitigation make situational awareness with regard to space weather a limiting factor for the ability to conduct exploration operations. We present a current status of developing operational concepts for manned exploration and expectations for asset viability and available predictive and characterization toolsets.
The annual Space Weather Workshop will be held in Boulder, Colo., 26-29 April 2011. The workshop will bring customers, forecasters, commercial service providers, researchers, and government agencies together in a lively dialogue about space weather. The workshop will include 4 days of plenary sessions on a variety of topics, with poster sessions focusing on the Sun, interplanetary space, the magnetosphere, and the ionosphere. The conference will address the remarkably diverse impacts of space weather on today's technology. Highlights on this year's agenda will include presentations on space weather impacts on the Global Positioning System (GPS), the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory's (STEREO) mission milestone of a 360° view of the Sun, the latest from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), and space weather impacts on emergency response by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Additionally, the vulnerabilities of satellites and the power grid to space weather will be addressed. Additional highlights will include the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group's (CSWIG) roundtable session and a presentation from the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM). The CSWIG roundtable session on the growth of the space weather enterprise will feature distinguished panelists. As always, lively interaction between the audience and the panel is anticipated. The OFCM will present the National Space Weather Program's new strategic plan.
As a natural hazard, space weather has the potential to affect space- and ground-based technological systems and cause harm to human health. As such, it is important to properly communicate this topic to policymakers and the general public alike, informing them (without being unnecessarily alarmist) about the potential impact of space-weather phenomena and how these can be monitored and mitigated. On the other hand, space weather is related to interesting phenomena on the Sun such as coronal-mass ejections, and incorporates one of the most beautiful displays in the Earth and its nearby space environment: aurora. These exciting and fascinating aspects of space weather should be cultivated when communicating this topic to the wider public, particularly to younger audiences. Researchers have a key role to play in communicating space weather to both policymakers and the wider public. Space scientists should have an active role in informing policy decisions on space-weather monitoring and forecasting, for example. And they can exercise their communication skills by talking about space weather to school children and the public in general. This presentation will focus on ways to communicate space weather to wider audiences, particularly policymakers. It will also address the role researchers can play in this activity to help bridge the gap between the space science community and the public.
The Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX) was created in October 2014. Some observatories measure data for the service at different frequencies and particles. Two cosmic ray observatories detect the particle variations attributed to solar emissions, and are an important source of information for the SCiESMEX. The Mexico City Cosmic Ray Observatory consists of a neutron monitor (6-NM-64) and a muon telescope, that detect the hadronic and hard component of the secondary cosmic rays in the atmosphere. It has been in continous operation since 1990. The Sierra Negra Cosmic Ray Observatory consists of a solar neutron telescope and the scintillator cosmic ray telescope. These telescopes can detect the neutrons, generated in solar flares and the hadronic and hard components of the secondary cosmic rays. It has been in continous operation since 2004. We present the two observatories and the capability to detect variations in the cosmic rays, generated by the emissions of the solar activity.
Kaluna, H. M.; Masiero, J. R.; Meech, K. J.
We present visible spectroscopic and albedo data of the 2.3 Gyr old Themis family and the <10 Myr old Beagle sub-family. The slope and albedo variations between these two families indicate C-complex asteroids become redder and darker in response to space weathering. Our observations of Themis family members confirm previously observed trends where phyllosilicate absorption features are less common among small diameter objects. Similar trends in the albedos of large (>15 km) and small (⩽15 km) Themis members suggest these phyllosilicate feature and albedo trends result from regolith variations as a function of diameter. Observations of the Beagle asteroids show a small, but notable fraction of members with phyllosilicate features. The presence of phyllosilicates and the dynamical association of the main-belt comet 133P/Elst-Pizarro with the Beagle family imply the Beagle parent body was a heterogenous mixture of ice and aqueously altered minerals.
Stanley, J. C.; Cade, W. B.
Many aircraft today use satellites for GPS navigation, arrival and departure to and from airspaces, and for "shooting" non-precision and precision Instrument Approaches into airports. Also in development is an Air Traffic Control system based on satellite technology that seeks to modernize current air traffic control and improve safety, eventually phasing out radar (though not yet in the very near future). Due to the general, commercial, and military aviation fields all becoming more and more reliant on satellite and GPS technologies, the effects of space weather events on these systems is of paramount concern to militaries, airlines, private pilots, and other aviation operators. In this study we analyze data from airlines and other resources regarding effects on satellite and GPS systems, which is crucial to the conduct of safe flight operations now and improving systems for future and continued use.
Singer, Howard; Matheson, Lorne; Grubb, Richard; Newman, Ann; Bouwer, David
Magnetic field measurements have been made form geosynchronous orbit for more than 20 years. These measurements are important for monitoring 'space weather' and for providing a unique data base that can be used for improving our knowledge of the Earth's magnetosphere and solar-terrestrial interactions. This paper will focus on the variety of products and services provided by these measurements--those currently available, and those under consideration for the future. The magnetic field assist forecasters in qualitatively assessing the level of geomagnetic disturbance, to interpret changes in energetic particle measurements, to provide data to the National Geophysical Data Center, to support in real-time scientific activities such as rocket launches, and to conduct research for a better understanding of the space environment. One important use of magnetometer data in the Space Environment Center is to alert customers when shocks occur in the solar wind. These shocks have the potential for energizing particles to multi-MeV levels, causing Single Event Upsets in spacecraft electronics, and at lower energy ranges causing deep-dielectric charging that produces spacecraft anomalies. Data from the new GOES-8 and GOES-9 spacecraft will be discussed along with prospects for future products and services.
Siscoe, George; Song, Paul
Over 160 scientists and students from more than a dozen countries attended the Chapman Conference on Space Weather: Progress and Challenges in Research and Applications to hear 70 talks and peruse 150 posters documenting achievements made during the first 5 years of the National Space Weather Program (NSWP).Since the advent of the NSWR, space weather research has expanded from a semi-private activity, pursued mostly to address operational concerns of industries and military branches affected by space weather, to a broad subject pursued in part for its capacity to integrate research across the divisions of the SPA community.
Eastwood, J P; Biffis, E; Hapgood, M A; Green, L; Bisi, M M; Bentley, R D; Wicks, R; McKinnell, L-A; Gibbs, M; Burnett, C
Space weather describes the way in which the Sun, and conditions in space more generally, impact human activity and technology both in space and on the ground. It is now well understood that space weather represents a significant threat to infrastructure resilience, and is a source of risk that is wide-ranging in its impact and the pathways by which this impact may occur. Although space weather is growing rapidly as a field, work rigorously assessing the overall economic cost of space weather appears to be in its infancy. Here, we provide an initial literature review to gather and assess the quality of any published assessments of space weather impacts and socioeconomic studies. Generally speaking, there is a good volume of scientific peer-reviewed literature detailing the likelihood and statistics of different types of space weather phenomena. These phenomena all typically exhibit "power-law" behavior in their severity. The literature on documented impacts is not as extensive, with many case studies, but few statistical studies. The literature on the economic impacts of space weather is rather sparse and not as well developed when compared to the other sections, most probably due to the somewhat limited data that are available from end-users. The major risk is attached to power distribution systems and there is disagreement as to the severity of the technological footprint. This strongly controls the economic impact. Consequently, urgent work is required to better quantify the risk of future space weather events.
Space-weather impacts society in diverse ways. Societies' responses have been correspondingly diverse. Taken together these responses constitute a space weather ``enterprise'', which has developed over time and continues to develop. Technological systems that space-weather affects have grown from isolated telegraph systems in the 1840s to ocean and continent-spanning cable communications systems, from a generator electrifying a few city blocks in the 1880s to continent-spanning networks of high-tension lines, from wireless telegraphy in the 1890s to globe-spanning communication by radio and satellites. To have a name for the global totality of technological systems that are vulnerable to space weather, I suggest calling it the cyberelectrosphere. When the cyberelectrosphere was young, scientists who study space weather, engineers who design systems that space weather affects, and operators of such systems - the personnel behind the space-weather enterprise - were relatively isolated. The space-weather enterprise was correspondingly incoherent. Now that the cyberelectrosphere has become pervasive and indispensable to most segments of society, the space weather enterprise has become systematic and coherent. At present it has achieved considerable momentum, but it has barely begun to realize the level of effectiveness to which it can aspire, as evidenced by achievements of a corresponding but more mature enterprise in meteorology, a field which provides useful lessons. The space-weather enterprise will enter a new phase after it matures roughly to where the tropospheric weather enterprise is now. Then it will become indispensable for humankind's further global networking through technology and for humankind's further utilization of and expansion into space.
Rigler, E. Joshua; Hill, Steven M.; Reinard, Alysha A.; Steenburgh, Robert A.
Thematic maps are arrays of labels, or "themes," associated with discrete locations in space and time. Borrowing heavily from the terrestrial remote sensing discipline, a numerical technique based on Bayes' theorem captures operational expertise in the form of trained theme statistics, then uses this to automatically assign labels to solar image pixels. Ultimately, regular thematic maps of the solar corona will be generated from high-cadence, high-resolution SUVI images, the solar ultraviolet imager slated to fly on NOAA's next-generation GOES-R series of satellites starting ˜2016. These thematic maps will not only provide quicker, more consistent synoptic views of the sun for space weather forecasters, but digital thematic pixel masks (e.g., coronal hole, active region, flare, etc.), necessary for a new generation of operational solar data products, will be generated. This paper presents the mathematical underpinnings of our thematic mapper, as well as some practical algorithmic considerations. Then, using images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Advanced Imaging Array (AIA) as test data, it presents results from validation experiments designed to ascertain the robustness of the technique with respect to differing expert opinions and changing solar conditions.
Rigler, E. Joshua; Hill, Steven M.; Reinard, Alysha A.; Steenburgh, Robert A.
Thematic maps are arrays of labels, or "themes", associated with discrete locations in space and time. Borrowing heavily from the terrestrial remote sensing discipline, a numerical technique based on Bayes' theorem captures operational expertise in the form of trained theme statistics, then uses this to automatically assign labels to solar image pixels. Ultimately, regular thematic maps of the solar corona will be generated from high-cadence, high-resolution SUVI images, the solar ultraviolet imager slated to fly on NOAA's next-generation GOES-R series of satellites starting ~2016. These thematic maps will not only provide quicker, more consistent synoptic views of the sun for space weather forecasters, but digital thematic pixel masks (e.g., coronal hole, active region, flare, etc.), necessary for a new generation of operational solar data products, will be generated. This paper presents the mathematical underpinnings of our thematic mapper, as well as some practical algorithmic considerations. Then, using images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Advanced Imaging Array (AIA) as test data, it presents results from validation experiments designed to ascertain the robustness of the technique with respect to differing expert opinions and changing solar conditions.
The annual Space Weather Workshop will be held in Boulder, Colo., 27-30 April 2010. The workshop will bring customers, forecasters, commercial service providers, researchers, and government agencies together in a lively dialogue about space weather. The workshop will include 4 days of plenary sessions on a variety of topics, with poster sessions focusing on the Sun, interplanetary space, the magnetosphere, and the ionosphere. The conference will address the remarkably diverse impacts of space weather on today's technology. Highlights on this year's agenda include ionospheric storms and their impacts on the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), an update on NASA's recently launched Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), and new space weather-related activities in the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Also this year, the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group will feature a presentation by former NOAA administrator, Vice Admiral Conrad Lautenbacher, U.S. Navy (Ret.).
The international space science community had recognized the importance of space weather more than a decade ago, which resulted in a number of international collaborative activities such as the Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System (CAWSES) by SCOSTEP and the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI). The ISWI program is a continuation of the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) program. These programs have brought scientists together to tackle the scientific issues behind space weather. In addition to the vast array of space instruments, ground based instruments have been deployed, which not only filled voids in data coverage, but also inducted young scientists from developing countries into the scientific community. This paper presents a summary of CAWSES and ISWI activities that promote space weather science via complementary approaches in international scientific collaborations. capacity building. and public outreach.
McKay, D. S.; Allen, C. C.
Space weathering is a broad term that includes a number of complex effects of the exposure of materials to the environment of space. The processes that drive space weathering include micrometeorite impact, radiation from the Sun and cosmic rays, and exposure to the vacuum of space. One of the important effects caused by these processes is the tendency for chemical reduction of oxide and silicate materials (including glasses), with accompanying loss of oxygen and production of reduced metal. Such chemical reduction and accompanying metal production may have an important influence on the chemistry of the outermost volume of individual grains as well as on the optical properties of this material. Hapke  discussed five processes that have been suggested for producing submicroscopic iron metal in the lunar soil: (1) shock reduction, (2) heating in a thermal blanket in vacuum, (3) shock heating of solar-wind-impregnated grains, (4) coatings deposited by solar wind sputtering, and (5) coatings deposited by impact vaporization. As noted by Hapke, "Processes (1) and (2) have been refuted by laboratory experiments. Processes (4) and (5) have produced submicroscopic iron metal in laboratory simulations. Although no experiments have been done to simulate process (3), it is widely accepted." We have been performing experimental reduction of simulated and actual lunar materials [2-5] and have shown that, under conditions of exposure to hydrogen at elevated temperatures, reduction of FeO readily occurs in ilmenite and lunar composition glass, and occurs at a slower rate in pyroxene and olivine. Even plagioclase feldspar containing minor FeO is readily reduced with formation of metallic iron blebs on surfaces . A comparison of natural lunar samples to hydrogen-reduced samples or simulants in which we are searching for reduction evidence in various soil phases is underway. Preliminary data for mature soils show, in agreement with earlier results, that reduced iron produced in
Rothkaehl, Hanna; Krankowski, Andrzej; Wronowski, Roman; Przepiórka, Dorota; Matyjasiak, Barbara; Błaszkiewicz, Leszek; Dabrowski, Bartosz
LOFAR is the Low-Frequency Array, exploring yet poorly studied range between 30-240 MHz frequencies. It constitutes a European array of thousands of antennas - a challenge for data transfer and processing techniques. The project is based on an interferometry array of radio telescopes using about thousand small antennas concentrated in at least 52 larger stations, 40 of these stations are distributed across the Netherlands, six stations in Germany, 3 in Poland and one each in Great Britain, France and Sweden. The data processing is performed by a Blue Gene/P supercomputer situated in the Netherlands at the University of Groningen. Novel ground based wide area sensor networks, such as the LOFAR (Low Frequency Array) radar facility, comprising wide band, and vector sensing radio receivers and multi-spacecraft plasma diagnostics should help solve outstanding problems of space physics and describe long-term environmental changes. The three new LOFAR stations were installed during 2015 in Poland. The LOFAR facilities in Poland are distributed among three sites: Borówiec near Poznan, Bałdy near Olsztyn and Łazy near Krakow. All they are connected via PIONIER dedicated links to Poznan. The frequency range of LOFAR (10-250 MHz) is a very important for the cosmic plasma physics. In this spectral domain we can observe for a first time the regions of normal and radio galaxies yet unseen at higher frequencies: their radio flux rapidly fades with frequency because of ageing population of high-energy relativistic electrons. This is also the optimum domain for observing the radio emission from magnetospheres of pulsars and giant (solar or extrasolar) planets. LOFAR will also give us chance for monitoring and diagnostic of different processes in space plasma enviroment of the Earth's and rado emissions from Sun. All this provides a trip to yet unexplored domains of the Universe and can be the exelent tool for SSA and Space Weather program
Machuzak, J. S.; Gentile, L. C.; Burke, W. J.; Holeman, E. G.; Ober, D. M.; Wilson, G. R.
The first Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) spacecraft was launched in 1972; the last is scheduled to fly in 2020. Presently, there is no replacement for the space-weather monitoring sensors that now fly on DMSP. The present suite has provided comprehensive, long-term records that constitute a critical component of the US space weather corporate memory. Evolving operational needs and research accomplishments justify continued collection of space environmental data. Examples include measurements to: (1) Monitor the Dst index in real time as a driver of next-generation satellite drag models; (2) Quantify electromagnetic energy fluxes from deep space to the ionosphere/ thermosphere that heat neutrals, drive disturbance-dynamo winds and degrade precise orbit determinations; (3) Determine strengths of stormtime electric fields at high and low latitudes that lead to severe blackouts and spacecraft anomalies; (4) Specify variability of plasma density irregularities, equatorial plasma bubbles, and the Appleton anomaly to improve reliability of communication, navigation and surveillance links; (5) Characterize energetic particle fluxes responsible for auroral clutter and radar degradation; (6) Map regions of L-Band scintillation for robust GPS applications; and (7) Update the World Magnetic Field Model needed to maintain guidance system superiority. These examples illustrate the utility of continued space environment awareness. Comprehensive assessments of both operational requirements and research advances are needed to make informed selections of sensors and spacecraft that support future capabilities. A proposed sensor set and satellite constellation to provide the needed measurement capabilities will be presented.
Hejduk, Matthew D.; Newman, Lauri K.; Besser, Rebecca L.; Pachura, Daniel A.
The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.
Gaffey, Michael J.
Lunar-style space weathering is well understood, but cannot be extended to asteroids in general. The two best studied Asteroids (433 Eros and 243 Ida) exhibit quite different space weathering styles, and neither exhibits lunar-style space weathering. It must be concluded that at this time the diversity and mechanisms of asteroid space weathering are poorly understood. This introduces a significant unconstrained variable into the problem of analyzing asteroid spectral data. The sensitivity of asteroid surface material characterizations to space weathering effects - whatever their nature - is strongly dependent upon the choice of remote sensing methodology. The effects of space weathering on some methodologies such as curve matching are potentially devastating and at the present time essentially unmitigated. On other methodologies such as parametric analysis (e.g., analyses based on band centers and band area ratios) the effects are minimal. By choosing the appropriate methodology(ies) applied to high quality spectral data, robust characterizations of asteroid surface mineralogy can be obtained almost irrespective of space weathering. This permits sophisticated assessments of the geologic history of the asteroid parent bodies and of their relationships to the meteorites. Investigations of the diversity of space weathering processes on asteroid surfaces should be a fruitful area for future efforts.
Rutledge, B.; Viereck, R. A.; Onsager, T. G.
Great progress has been made in raising the global awareness of space weather and the associated impacts on Earth and our technological systems. However, significant gaps still exist in providing comprehensive and easily understood space weather information, products, and services to the diverse and growing customer base. As technologies, such as Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), have become more ingrained in applications and fields of work that previously did not rely on systems sensitive to space weather, the customer base has grown substantially. Furthermore, the causes and effects of space weather can be difficult to interpret without a detailed understanding of the scientific underpinnings. In response to this change, space weather service providers must address this evolution by both improving services and by representing space weather information and impacts in ways that are meaningful to each facet of this diverse customer base. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) must work with users, spanning precision agriculture, emergency management, power grid operators and beyond, to both identify unmet space weather service requirements and to ensure information and decision support services are provided in meaningful and more easily understood forms.
Kane, R. P.
This paper reports the results of a search to determine who originated the concept and/or the term Space Weather. Though many people have been identified with an early use of the term "Space Weather", the first one to have introduced the term seems to be Thomas Gold of Harvard College Observatory, in a 1959 publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research.
Keller, L. P.; Rahman, Z.; Hiroi, T.; Sasaki, S.; Noble, S. K.; Horz, F.; Cintala, M. J.
Space weathering (SW) effects on the lunar surface are reasonably well-understood from sample analyses, remote-sensing data, and experiments, yet our knowledge of asteroidal SW effects are far less constrained. While the same SW processes are operating on asteroids and the Moon, namely solar wind irradiation, impact vaporization and condensation, and impact melting, their relative rates and efficiencies are poorly known, as are their effects on such vastly different parent materials. Asteroidal SW models based on remote-sensing data and experiments are in wide disagreement over the dominant mechanisms involved and their kinetics. Lunar space weathering effects observed in UVVIS-NIR spectra result from surface- and volume-correlated nanophase Fe metal (npFe(sup 0)) particles. In the lunar case, it is the tiny vapor-deposited npFe(sup 0) that provides much of the spectral reddening, while the coarser (largely melt-derived) npFe(sup 0) produce lowered albedos. Nanophase FeS (npFeS) particles are expected to modify reflectance spectra in much the same way as npFe(sup 0) particles. Here we report the results of experiments designed to explore the efficiency of npFeS production via the main space weathering processes operating in the asteroid belt.
Khabarova, O. V.
Most popular short-term space weather prognoses are based on CME-like solar wind conditions' analysis. Short-term forecasts of severe magnetic storms using such a prognostic scheme are rather accurate, but sometimes are not actual due to too short alert time. Moreover, the number of severe storms is 10 times less than the weak magnetic storms' number. At the same time, the quality of weak and moderate magnetic storms forecast is poor for both short-term and medium-term prognoses, especially at a solar minimum. It is found that physical origin of weak and moderate magnetic storms is much closer to substorms' than to severe magnetic storms' nature; that is why CME-condition- based prognoses fail very often for mild geomagnetic storms . Case studies and statistical analysis show that a mechanism of weak and moderate magnetic storms' development could be explained by excitation and compression of the magnetosphere by the SW density sharp increase in a combination with the southward-directed IMF. Sometimes there is a time delay up to several hours between the geoeffective density increase and the negative Bz IMF component's observation [1, 2]. The role of the solar wind velocity in the stimulation of the reconnection in the magnetotail is found out to be negligible for weak or moderate magnetic storms and essential for intensive and severe geomagnetic storms. So, a consideration of high-speed SW streams and the southward IMF direction as a main cause of a geomagnetic storm is correct for storms with Dst<-100nT only. Additionally, there are evidences that a weak increase of the SW density, as well as increased SW turbulence in the ULF diapason one-three days before a geomagnetic storm onset could be considered as a prognostic factor [1, 2]. Therefore, more deep investigation of weak (but not severe) magnetic storms' origin is a main key of future success of space weather prediction. 1. Khabarova O.V., Current Problems of Magnetic Storm Prediction and Possible Ways of
Khabarova, O. V.; Dimitrova, S.
Our environment includes many natural and artificial agents affecting any person on the Earth in one way or other. This work is focused on two of them - weather and space weather, which are permanently effective. Their cumulative effect is proved by means of the modeling. It is shown that combination of geomagnetic and solar indices and weather strength parameter (which includes six main meteorological parameters) correlates with health state significantly better (up to R=0.7), than separate environmental parameters do. The typical shape of any health characteristics' time-series during human body reaction to any negative impact represents a curve, well-known in medicine as a General Adaptation Syndrome curve by Hans Selye. We demonstrate this on the base of blood pressure time-series and acupunctural experiment data, averaged by group. The first stage of adaptive stress-reaction (resistance to stress) is sometimes observed 1-2 days before geomagnetic storm onset. The effect of "outstripping reaction to magnetic storm", named Tchizhevsky- Velkhover effect, had been known for many years, but its explanation was obtained recently due to the consideration of the near-Earth space plasma processes. It was shown that lowfrequency variations of the solar wind density on a background of the density growth can stimulate the development of the geomagnetic filed (GMF) variations of the wide frequency range. These variations seem to have "bioeffective frequencies", resonant with own frequencies of body organs and systems. The mechanism of human body reaction is supposed to be a parametrical resonance in low-frequency range (which is determined by the resonance in large-scale organs and systems) and a simple forced resonance in GHz-range of variations (the resonance of micro-objects in the organism such as DNA, cell membranes, blood ions etc.) Given examples of mass-reaction of the objects to ULF-range GMF variations during quiet space weather time prove this hypothesis.
Radio bursts from the Sun are produced by electron accelerated to relativistic energies by physical processes on the Sun such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The radio bursts are thus good indicators of solar eruptions. Three types of nonthermal radio bursts are generally associated with CMEs. Type III bursts due to accelerated electrons propagating along open magnetic field lines. The electrons are thought to be accelerated at the reconnection region beneath the erupting CME, although there is another view that the electrons may be accelerated at the CME-driven shock. Type II bursts are due to electrons accelerated at the shock front. Type II bursts are also excellent indicators of solar energetic particle (SEP) events because the same shock is supposed accelerate electrons and ions. There is a hierarchical relationship between the wavelength range of type /I bursts and the CME kinetic energy. Finally, Type IV bursts are due to electrons trapped in moving or stationary structures. The low frequency stationary type IV bursts are observed occasionally in association with very fast CMEs. These bursts originate from flare loops behind the erupting CME and hence indicate tall loops. This paper presents a summary of radio bursts and their relation to CMEs and how they can be useful for space weather predictions.
Horwitz, James L.
During the indicated period of performance, we had a number of publications concerned with kinetic polar ionosphere-lower magnetosphere plasma transport. For the IUGG 1991-4 Quadrennial Report, we reviewed aspects of U.S. accomplishments concerned with polar plasma transport, among other issues. In another review, we examined the computer simulations of multiple-scale processes in space plasmas, including polar plasma outflow and transport. We also examined specifically multiscale processes in ionospheric outflows. We developed a Generalized Semi-Kinetic(GSK) model for the topside-lower magnetosphere which explored the synergistic action of wave heating and electric potentials in the formation of auroral Ion conics, in particular the "pressure cooker" mechanism. We extended the GSK model all the way down to 120 km and applied this code to illustrate the response of the ionosphere- magnetosphere to soft-electron precipitation and convection-driven frictional ion heating, respectively. Later, the convection-driven heating work was extended to a paper for the Journal of Geophysical Research. In addition to the above full published papers, we also presented the first developments of the coupled fluid-semikinetic model for polar plasma transport during this period. The results from a steady-state treatment were presented, with the second presentation being concerned with the effects of photo-electrons on the polar wind, and the first garnering an outstanding student paper award from the American Geophysical Union. We presented the first results from a time-dependent version of this coupled fluid-semikinetic model.
Grande, Manuel; Andre, Nicolas; COSPAR/ILWS Roadmap Team
Space weather refers to the variable state of the coupled space environment related to changing conditions on the Sun and in the terrestrial atmosphere. The presentation will focus on the critical missing knowledge or observables needed to significantly advance our modelling and forecasting capabilities throughout the solar system putting these in perspective to the recommendations in the recent COSPAR/ILWS roadmap. The COSPAR/ILWS RoadMap focuses on high-priority challenges in key areas of research leading to a better understanding of the space environment and a demonstrable improvement in the provision of timely, reliable information pertinent to effects on civilian space- and ground-based systems, for all stakeholders around the world. The RoadMap prioritizes those advances that can be made on short, intermediate and decadal time scales, identifying gaps and opportunities from a predominantly, but not exclusively, geocentric perspective. While discussion of space weather effects has so far largely been concerned to the near-Earth environment, there are significant present and future applications to the locations beyond, and to other planets. Most obviously, perhaps, are the radiation hazards experienced by astronauts on the way to, and on the surface of, the Moon and Mars. Indeed, the environment experienced by planetary spacecraft in transit and at their destinations is of course critical to their design and successful operation. The case of forthcoming missions to Jupiter and Europa is an extreme example. Moreover, such craft can provide information which in turn increases our understanding of geospace. One initiative is that under Horizon 2020, Europlanet RI will set up a Europlanet Planetary Space Weather Service (PSWS). PSWS will make five entirely new `toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: - a General planetary space weather toolkit; Mars (in support of the ESA ExoMars missions to be launched
Space weather refers to the variable state of the coupled space environment related to changing conditions on the Sun and in the terrestrial atmosphere. The presentation will focus on the critical missing knowledge or observables needed to significantly advance our modelling and forecasting capabilities throughout the solar system putting these in perspective to the recommendations in the recent COSPAR/ILWS roadmap. The COSPAR/ILWS RoadMap focuses on high-priority challenges in key areas of research leading to a better understanding of the space environment and a demonstrable improvement in the provision of timely, reliable information pertinent to effects on civilian space- and ground-based systems, for all stakeholders around the world. The RoadMap prioritizes those advances that can be made on short, intermediate and decadal time scales, identifying gaps and opportunities from a predominantly, but not exclusively, geocentric perspective. While discussion of space weather effects has so far largely been confined to the near-Earth environment, there are significant present and future applications to the locations beyond, and to other planets. Most obviously, perhaps, are the radiation hazards experienced by astronauts on the way to, and on the surface of, the Moon and Mars. Indeed, the environment experienced by planetary spacecraft in transit and at their destinations is of course critical to their design and successful operation. The case of forthcoming missions to Jupiter and Europa is an extreme example. Moreover, such craft can provide information which in turn increases our understanding of geospace. One initiative is that under Horizon 2020, Europlanet RI will set up a Europlanet Planetary Space Weather Service (PSWS). PSWS will make five entirely new 'toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: - a General planetary space weather toolkit; Mars (in support of the ESA ExoMars missions to be launched
Webb, David F.; Gopalswamy, Nat; Liu, William; Sibeck, David G.; Schmieder, Brigitte; Wang, Jingxiu; Wang, Chi
The IAU Division II WG on International Collaboration in Space Weather has as its main goal to help coordinate the many activities related to space weather at an international level. The WG currently includes the international activities of the International Heliospheric Year (IHY), the International Living with a Star (ILWS) program, the CAWSES (Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System) Working Group on Sources of Geomagnetic Activity, and Space Weather Studies in China. The coordination of IHY activities within the IAU is led by Division II under this working group. The focus of this half-day meeting was on the activities of the IHY program. About 20 people were in attendance. The Chair of the WG, David F. Webb, gave a brief introduction noting that the meeting would have two parts: first, a session on IHY activities emphasizing IHY Regional coordination and, second, a general discussion of the other programs of the WG involving international Space Weather activities.
Cooper, John F.; King, Joseph H.; Papitashvili, Natalia E.; Lal, Nand; Sittler, Edward C.; Sturner, Steven J.; Hills, Howard K.; Lipatov, Alexander S.; Kovalick, Tamara J.; Johnson, Rita C.; McGuire, Robert E.; Narock, Thomas W.; Szabo, Adam; Armstrong, Thomas P.; Manweiler, Jerry W.; Patterson, J. Douglas; McKibben, Robert B.
Structural and chemical impact of the heliospheric space environment on exposed planetary surfaces and interplanetary dust grains may be generally defined as space weathering . In the inner solar system, from the asteroid belt inwards towards the Sun, the surface regolith structures of airless bodies are primarily determined by cumulative meteoritic impacts over billions of years, but the molecular composition to meters in depth can be substantially modified by irradiation effects. Plasma ions at eV to keV energies may both erode uppermost surfaces by sputtering, and implant or locally produce exogenic material, e.g. He-3 and H2O, while more energetic ions drive molecular change through electronic ionization. Galactic cosmic ray ions and more energetic solar ions can impact chemistry to meters in depth. High energy cosmic ray interactions produce showers of secondary particles and energetic photons that present hazards for robotic and human exploration missions but also enable detection of potentially useable resources such as water ice, oxygen, and many other elements. Surface sputtering also makes ejected elemental and molecular species accessible for in-situ compositional analysis by spacecraft with ion and neutral mass spectrometers. Modeling of relative impacts for these various space weathering processes requires knowledge of the incident species-resolved ion flux spectra at plasma to cosmic ray energies and as integrated over varying time scales. Although the main drivers for investigations of these processes come from NASA's planetary science and human exploration programs, the NASA heliophysics program provides the requisite data measurement and modeling resources to enable specification of the field & plasma and energetic particle irradiation environments for application to space weather and surface weathering investigations. The Virtual Heliospheric Observatory (VHO), Virtual Energetic Particle Observatory (VEPO), Lunar Solar Origins Exploration (Luna
We present an overview of Space Weather activities and future opportunities including assessments of current status and capabilities, knowledge gaps, and future directions in relation to both observations and modeling. The review includes input from the scientific community including from SCOSTEP scientific discipline representatives (SDRs), COSPAR Main Scientific Organizers (MSOs), and SCOSTEP/VarSITI leaders. The presentation also draws on results from the recent activities related to the production of the COSPAR-ILWS Space Weather Roadmap "Understanding Space Weather to Shield Society" [Schrijver et al., Advances in Space Research 55, 2745 (2015) http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2015.03.023], from the activities related to the United Nations (UN) Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) actions in relation to the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space (LTS), and most recently from the newly formed and ongoing efforts of the UN COPUOS Expert Group on Space Weather.
Mendoza, A. M. M.; Maddox, M. M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Chulaki, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Mullinix, R.; Weigand, C.; Boblitt, J.; Taktakishvili, A.; MacNeice, P. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Pembroke, A. D.; Mays, M. L.; Zheng, Y.; Shim, J. S.
Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has developed a comprehensive set of tools and applications that are directly applicable to space weather and space science education. These tools, some of which were developed by our student interns, are capable of serving a wide range of student audiences, from middle school to postgraduate research. They include a web-based point of access to sophisticated space physics models and visualizations, and a powerful space weather information dissemination system, available on the web and as a mobile app. In this demonstration, we will use CCMC's innovative tools to engage the audience in real-time space weather analysis and forecasting and will share some of our interns' hands-on experiences while being trained as junior space weather forecasters. The main portals to CCMC's educational material are ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov and iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov
NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar
Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.
Mckay, D. S.; Allen, C. C.
Significant advances in the understanding of space weathering processes were recently reported. Submicroscopic iron blebs were produced in lunar simulant glass and natural terrestrial minerals by high-temperature reduction in controlled atmosphere furnaces. These experiments altered the samples' optical properties and microtextures so that they resembled those of extremely mature lunar soil. The results contributed to a revised model for natural reduction in the regolith. Subsequently, supporting results were obtained by reduction of lunar samples. Research to date has focused on reduction of three lunar surface components: basalt, pyroclastic glass, and mare soil. An extensive set of H reduction experiments with simulants has led to a detailed understanding of reaction mechanisms and kinetics. Reduction experiments using lunar basalt were recently conducted by Carbotek. Reduced samples from these test were analyzed. Reduction experiments on lunar glass 74220 were run at temperatures of 900-1100 C. Reduction efficiency of volcanic glass proved to be a function of the sample's FeO abundance and reaction temperature. We also reduced mare soil 75061 at temperatures of 900-1050 C. Partial reduction of FeO in olivine and pyroxene occurred, but was slower and less complete than reduction of ilmenite. Our experiments on simulants and lunar samples have indicated that the most readily reduced phases in the regolith are ilmenite and glass. Based on initial tests with simulants we proposed refinements to the accepted model for space weathering of the regolith. The impact of a micrometeoroid flash heats and melts and ejects from the impact point a small volume of soil that contains trapped solar wind H and C. Reduction occurs rapidly, while the melt volume is still in motion. When a droplet encounters unmelted soil, it envelopes cold mineral grains. The melt is chilled rapidly. Our analyses of experimentally reduced lunar basalt, glass, and mare soil support the proposed
Zheng, Yihua; Mason, Tom; Wood, Erin L.
Shortly after NASA's Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN mission (MAVEN) spacecraft entered Mars' orbit on 21 September 2014, scientists glimpsed the Martian atmosphere's response to a front of solar energetic particles (SEPs) and an associated coronal mass ejection (CME). In response to some solar flares and CMEs, streams of SEPs burst from the solar atmosphere and are further accelerated in the interplanetary medium between the Sun and the planets. These particles deposit their energy and momentum into anything in their path, including the Martian atmosphere and MAVEN particle detectors. MAVEN scientists had been alerted to the likely CME-Mars encounter by a space weather prediction system that had its origins in space weather forecasting for Earth but now forecasts space weather for Earth's neighboring planets. The two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft and Solar Heliospheric Observatory observed a CME on 26 September, with a trajectory that suggested a Mars intercept. A computer model developed for solar wind prediction, the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil cone model [e.g., Zheng et al., 2013; Parsons et al., 2011], running in real time at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) located at NASA Goddard since 2006, showed the CME propagating in the direction of Mars (Figure 1). According to MAVEN particle detectors, the disturbance and accompanying SEP enhancement at the leading edge of the CME reached Mars at approximately 17 hours Universal Time on 29 September 2014. Such SEPs may have a profound effect on atmospheric escape - they are believed to be a possible means for driving atmospheric loss. SEPs can cause loss of Mars' upper atmosphere through several loss mechanisms including sputtering of the atmosphere. Sputtering occurs when atoms are ejected from the atmosphere due to impacts with energetic particles.
Minow, Joseph; Pettit, Donald R.; Hartman, William A.
Today s presentation describes how real time space weather data is used by the International Space Station (ISS) space environments team to obtain data on auroral charging of the ISS vehicle and support ISS crew efforts to obtain auroral images from orbit. Topics covered include: Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU), . Auroral charging of ISS, . Real ]time space weather monitoring resources, . Examples of ISS auroral charging captured from space weather events, . ISS crew observations of aurora.
Sasaki, Sho; HIroi, Takahiro
weathered. The presence of opposition effect in rocky terrain of Itokawa suggested that the surface would be covered by particulate materials or porous enough to scatter light. Spectral variations were observed, that can be explained by Hapke's space weathering model, where the amount of npFe0 controls spectral reddening. As for color variation of Itokawa, we can interpret that seismic shaking caused by impacts or planetary encounters should lead to exposure of underlying relatively fresh bright area by removing weathered darker boulder-rich layer. Itokawa - Evidence from Returned Samples In 2011, HAYABUSA returned more than 1000 particulate samples of Itokawa back to the Earth. Analysis of mineral assemblies and composition of Itokawa particles supports that Itokawa has LL-chondrite composition. The most notable discoveries in Itokawa particles is amorphous space-weathering rims containing npFe0 16, 17, 18). Sometimes ion-implanted type-II layers contains vesicles, probably due mainly to trapping solar wind energetic helium with penetration depth up to a few tens µm (composite vesicular rim in 17, 18)). Large vesicles are observed as blisters on the surface of Itokawa particles. Matsumoto et al. 18) identified space weathered rims with blisters on eleven out of twenty regolith particles of Itokawa. It was confirmed that a blister corresponds to a vesicle in npFe0-bearing amorphous layer. These rims with blisters are heterogeneously distributed even in one particle. Sometimes blistered rims are observed in opposite surfaces of the same particle. This is a strong evidence of regolith mixing. So far, there is no correlation between the blister distribution and surface morphologies such as roundness of particles. A few 10 nm amorphous rim can be developed in timescale 1000 yr (based on solar flare density, Regolith mixing processes may prolong timescale of optical maturation on smooth regions of Itokawa. References 1) Hapke B., Cassidy, W. And Wells. E.: Effects of vapor
Bentley, M. S.; Ball, A. J.; Dyar, M. D.; Pieters, C. M.; Wright, I. P.; Zarnecki, J. C.
Space weathering is now understood to be a key modifier of visible and near infrared reflectance spectra of airless bodies. Believed to be caused by vapour recondensation after either ion sputtering or impact vaporization, space weathering has been successfully simulated in the laboratory over the past few years. The optical changes caused by space weathering have been attributed to the accumulation of sub-microscopic iron on regolith grain surfaces. Such fine-grained metallic iron has distinctive magnetic properties that can be used to study it.
In 1961, James W. Dungey published a remarkable two-paged paper in Physics Review Letters that revolutionized our understanding of the Earth's magnetosphere. In it, he used his concept of "magnetic reconnection" to introduce the open magnetosphere model. Dungey died in 2015, but his idea does a great deal more than just live on in the literature. At the same time as making sense of the magnetosphere, it has established key applications in astrophysics, planetary physics, solar and heliospheric physics, and fusion energy research—in fact, any area involving ionized gases threaded by magnetic fields. It is now the basis of our understanding and prediction of space weather phenomena.
Recently several groups report on the development of the alarm system based on the surface particle detector data. Among them are high-latitude neutron monitors network "Spaceship Earth", coordinated by the group from Bartol Research Center; Muon network coordinated by the group from Shinshu University and Athens Neutron Monitor Data Processing Center. In the presented report, based on the information content of data from particle detectors of Aragats Space Environmental Center (ASEC) we made attempt to review possibility of surface particle detectors in Space Weather forecasts. Particle monitors located at ASEC at 1000, 2000 and 3200 m altitudes (40˚25 N, 44˚15 E; Vertical cut-off rigidity in 2007: 7.1 GV) detect charged and neutral components of the secondary cosmic rays with different energy thresholds and various angles of incidence. ASEC monitors reliably detect the highest energy CR due to unique geographical location and large underground high energy muon detector. Forecasting of the Solar Energetic Proton (SEP) events by surface particle detectors is based on the detection of the Ground Level Enhancements (GLE). Unfortunately not all SEPs contain particles energetic enough to produce GLE, therefore, the efficiency of the warnings will not be very high. Nonetheless, we can expect that the major events, (like 1859, 1956, 1972, 1989) with high probability will generate GLEs and surface detectors can provide forewarnings on upcoming abundant SEP particles. With the exception of the event on 20 January, when due to very good magnetic connection of the flare site with earth, all relativistic particles seem to come simultaneously, the enhancements of GeV solar particles detected by surface particle detectors can alert on upcoming severe radiation storm. The alerts from middle and low latitude monitors are even more important compared to high latitude networks, because of lower probability of false alarms. If an enhancement occurs at monitors with large cutoff
Luhmann, J. G.; Li, Y.; Lee, C.; Mays, M. L.; Odstrcil, D.; Jian, L.; Galvin, A. B.; Mewaldt, R. A.; von Rosenvinge, T. T.; Russell, C. T.; Halekas, J. S.; Connerney, J. E. P.; Jakosky, B. M.; Thompson, W. T.; Baker, D. N.; Dewey, R. M.; Zheng, Y.; Holmstrom, M.; Futaana, Y.
Space weather research is now a solar system-wide enterprise. While with the end of the Venus Express Express mission and MESSENGER, we lost our 'inside' sentinels, new missions such as Solar Orbiter and SPP, and Bepi-Colombo will soon be launched and operating. In the meantime the combination of L1 resources (ACE,WIND,SOHO) and STEREO-A at 1 AU, and Mars Express and MAVEN missions at ~1.5 AU, provide opportunities. Comparative conditions at the Earth orbit and Mars orbit locations are of special interest because they are separated by the region where most solar wind stream interaction regions develop. These alter the propagation of disturbances including the interplanetary CME-driven shocks that make the space radiation affecting future Human mission planning. We share some observational and modeling results thatillustrate present capabilities, as well as developing ones such as ENLIL-based SEP event models that use a range of available observations.
Clark, R. N.; Perlman, Z.; Pearson, N.; Cruikshank, D. P.
Space weathering produces well-known optical effects in silicate minerals in the inner Solar System, for example, on the Moon. Space weathering from solar wind and UV (ultraviolet radiation) is expected to be significantly weaker in the outer Solar System simply because intensities are low. However, cosmic rays and micrometeoroid bombardment would be similar to first order. That, combined with the much higher volatility of icy surfaces means there is the potential for space weathering on icy outer Solar System surfaces to show optical effects. The Cassini spacecraft orbiting Saturn is providing evidence for space weathering on icy bodies. The Cassini Visible and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) instrument has spatially mapped satellite surfaces and the rings from 0.35-5 microns and the Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph (UVIS) instrument from 0.1 to 0.2 microns. These data have sampled a complex mixing space between H2O ice and non-ice components and they show some common spectral properties. Similarly, spectra of the icy Galilean satellites and satellites in the Uranian system have some commonality in spectral properties with those in the Saturn system. The UV absorber is spectrally similar on many surfaces. VIMS has identified CO2, H2 and trace organics in varying abundances on Saturn's satellites. We postulate that through the spatial relationships of some of these compounds that they are created and destroyed through space weathering effects. For example, the trapped H2 and CO2 observed by VIMS in regions with high concentrations of dark material may in part be space weathering products from the destruction of H2O and organic molecules. The dark material, particularly on Iapetus which has the highest concentration in the Saturn system, is well matched by space-weathered silicates in the .4 to 2.6 micron range, and the spectral shapes closely match those of the most mature lunar soils, another indicator of space weathered material.
Thiemann, Edward M. B.
Solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation is a primary driver of space weather at Earth and Mars. At Earth, this radiation can affect satellite drag and disrupt communication and navigation signals. At Mars, it contributes to the loss of a once dense atmosphere to space. Recent EUV irradiance instruments, such as the EUV Monitor (EUVM) on the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) orbiter and the EUV and X-ray Irradiance Sensors (EXIS) on the next generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) use multi-spectral sensors to measure key portions of the EUV spectrum which drive models to estimate the complete EUV spectral irradiance. This thesis develops new models for use by EUVM and EXIS using three distinct methods. 1) Empirical models use predetermined correlations with available measurements to estimate the spectral irradiance. I use new high resolution and high time cadence measurements from the EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) to improve model spectral resolution and reduce uncertainty. I develop the FISM-M model for MAVEN and the L1B Operational Model for EXIS, each with 5-10% typical uncertainties. 2) Semi-empirical models reconstruct the spectrum by weighting a set of reference spectra according to solar activity estimated with broadband measurements. The SynRef model is developed for EUVM to improve the spectral resolution by 10-100X from 0-6 nm. A semi-empirical model is also developed for the solar H Lyman-alpha line using newly published 1.5 picometer resolution spectra from SOHO/SUMER, and is used to retrieve Mars H-corona densities from EUVM occultation measurements. 3) I develop the Lumped Element Thermal Model (LETM) for specifically modeling the time evolution of EUV flare emissions. I show that hot and cool EUV flare emission light curves are related through the low pass filter equation. This new effect is used to motivate a simple flare cooling model which can accurately
The Joint Laboratory for Space Weather in South America, jointly constructed by National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NSSC, CAS) and Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE) plays a key role in the formation of International Space Weather Meridian Circle Programme (ISWMCP). This Lab is responsible for the joint Meridian chains observation and data converging in the west hemisphere, the joint space environment exploration and research in the low latitude area both in the east and west hemisphere, as well as the bridge for Sino-Brazilian culture exchanges.
Kunches, J.; Crowley, G.; Pilinski, M.; Winkler, C.; Fish, C. S.; Hunton, D.; Reynolds, A.; Azeem, I.
Historically, operational space weather tools have focused on the large-scale. The Sun, solar wind, magnetosphere, and ionosphere were the domains that, rightly so, needed the attention of experimentalists and scientists to fashion the best sensors and physics-based models available. These initiatives resulted in significant improvements for operational forecasters. For example, geomagnetic storm predictions now do not have to rely on proxies for CMEs, such as type II sweep, but rather make use of available actual observations of CMEs from which the true velocity vector may be determined. The users of space weather services profited from the better large-scale observations, but now have expressed their desire for even better spatially and time-resolved granularity of products and services. This natural evolution towards refining products has ushered in the era of the smaller mission, the more efficient sensor. CubeSats and compact ionospheric monitors are examples of the instrumental suite now emerging to bring in this new era. This presentation will show examples of the new mix of smaller systems that enable finer, more well-resolved products and services for the operational world. A number of technologies are now in the marketplace demonstrating the value of more observations at a decreasing cost. In addition, new models are looming to take advantage of these better observations. Examples of models poised to take advantage of new observations will be given.
Berger, Eve L.; Keller, Lindsay P.
Space weathering processes such as solar wind irradiation and micrometeorite impacts are known to alter the the properties of regolith materials exposed on airless bodies. The rates of space weathering processes however, are poorly constrained for asteroid regoliths, with recent estimates ranging over many orders of magnitude. The return of surface samples by JAXA's Hayabusa mission to asteroid 25143 Itokawa, and their laboratory analysis provides "ground truth" to anchor the timescales for space weathering processes on airless bodies. Here, we use the effects of solar wind irradiation and the accumulation of solar flare tracks recorded in Itokawa grains to constrain the rates of space weathering and yield information about regolith dynamics on these timescales.
Langhoff, Stephanie R.; Straume, Tore
As technological innovations produce new capabilities, complexities, and interdependencies, our susceptibility to the societal impacts of space weather increase. There is real concern in the scientific community that our infrastructure would be at significant risk if a major geomagnetic storm should occur. To discuss the societal impacts of space weather, we brought together an interdisciplinary group of subject matter experts and societal stakeholders to participate in a workshop entitled Space Weather Risks and Society. The workshop was held at Ames Research Center (ARC) on 15-16 October 2011. The workshop was co-sponsored by NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), the Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center (LMATC), the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA), and the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL, part of the UK Science and Technology Facilities Council STFC). The workshop is part of a series of informal weekend workshops hosted by Center Director Pete Worden.
Bogdan, Thomas J.; Onsager, Terrance G.
A new era of enhanced international cooperation in space weather operations has begun with the recent initiation of space weather activities within the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), an agency of the United Nations (U.N.) with a membership of 189 states and territories. These activities aim to standardize and enhance space weather observations and data exchange, coordinate end products and services, and foster dialogue between the research and operational communities. The WMO's role is to foster collaboration among the meteorological and hydrological (and now space weather) service providers and to promote the establishment of networks for making and exchanging geophysical observations and the standardization of data and metadata. It also contributes to policy making and has a lead role in efforts to monitor and protect the environment.
Davila, Joseph M.
The International Heliophysical Year (IHY) is concerned with the study of universal processes in the heliosphere, and international scientific cooperation. The result has been an international cooperative effort, jointly with the United Nations COPUOS, to study process which form the basis of our understanding of Space Weather. It this talk I will review the objectives of the IHY, and the progress made in the deployment of several instrument arrays and investigations which study space weather phenomena.
SPACEBUOY A UNIVERSITY NANOSAT SPACE WEATHER MISSION (III) DAVID KLUMPAR MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY 10/11/2013 Final Report DISTRIBUTION A...2011 - 4/14/2013 SPACEBUOY A UNIVERSITY NANOSAT SPACE WEATHER MISSION (III) FA9550-11-1-0045 David Klumpar Montana State University 307 Montana ...David Klumpar 406-994-6169 Montana State University University Nanosat-7 FCR Presentation January 10, 2013 Albuquerque, NM 1 2 Mission
Effectively transitioning science knowledge to useful applications relevant to space weather has become important. The effort to transition scientific knowledge to a useful application is not a research nor is it operations, but an activity that connects two. Successful transitioning must be an intentional effort with a clear goal and measureable outcome. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective, and how in the current environment those can be applied to space weather transition efforts.
Minow, Joseph I.; Pettit, Donald R.; Hartman, William A.
The awareness of potentially significant impacts of space weather on spaceand ground ]based technological systems has generated a strong desire in many sectors of government and industry to effectively transform knowledge and understanding of the variable space environment into useful tools and applications for use by those entities responsible for systems that may be vulnerable to space weather impacts. Essentially, effectively transitioning science knowledge to useful applications relevant to space weather has become important. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective, and how in the current environment those can be applied to space weather transition efforts.
Head, James N.
Space weather phenomena impacts human civilization on a global scale and hence calls for a global approach to research, monitoring, and operational forecasting. The Global Space Weather Enterprise (GSWE) could be arranged along lines well established in existing international frameworks related to space exploration or to the use of space to benefit humanity. The Enterprise need not establish a new organization, but could evolve from existing international organizations. A GSWE employing open architectural concepts could be arranged to promote participation by all interested States regardless of current differences in science and technical capacity. Such an Enterprise would engender capacity building and burden sharing opportunities.
Barth, Janet L.
Space-based systems are developing into critical infrastructure required to support the quality of life on Earth. Hence, spacecraft reliability is a serious issue that is complicated by exposure to the space environment. Complex mission designs along with rapidly evolving technologies have outpaced efforts to accommodate detrimental space environment impacts on systems. Hazardous space environments, the effects on systems, and the accommodation of the effects are described with a focus on the need to predict space environments.
Tilton, M.; Rowland, W. F.; Wilkinson, D. C.; Denig, W. F.; Darnel, J.; Kress, B. T.; Loto'aniu, P. T. M.; Machol, J. L.; Redmon, R. J.; Rodriguez, J. V.
The upcoming Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite series, GOES-R, will provide critical space weather data. These data are used to prevent communication outages, mitigate the damage solar weather causes to satellites and power grids, and reduce astronaut radiation exposure. The space weather instruments aboard GOES-R will deliver an operational dataset of unprecedented breadth. However, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)—the organization that provides access to archived GOES-R data—has faced several challenges in delivering this information to customers in usable form. For instance, the GOES-R ground system was contracted to develop higher-level products for terrestrial data but not space weather data. Variations in GOES-R data file formats and archive locations have also threatened to create an inconsistent user experience. This presentation will examine the ways in which NCEI is making GOES-R space weather data more accessible and actionable for customers. These efforts include NCEI's development of high-level data products to meet the requirements of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center—a role NCEI has not previously played. In addition, NCEI is creating a demonstration system to show how these products can be produced in real-time. The organization is also examining customer usage of the GOES-NOP data access system and using these access patterns to drive decisions about the GOES-R user interface.
There is growing recognition that the space environment can have substantial, deleterious, impacts on society. Consequently, research enabling specification and forecasting of hazardous space effects has become of great importance and urgency. This research requires studying the entire Sun-Earth system to understand the coupling of regions all the way from the source of disturbances in the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The traditional, region-based structure of research programs in Solar and Space physics is ill suited to fully support the change in research directions that the problem of space weather dictates. On the observational side, dense, distributed networks of observations are required to capture the full large-scale dynamics of the space environment. However, the cost of implementing these is typically prohibitive, especially for measurements in space. Thus, by necessity, the implementation of such new capabilities needs to build on creative and unconventional solutions. A particularly powerful idea is the utilization of new developments in data engineering and informatics research (big data). These new technologies make it possible to build systems that can collect and process huge amounts of noisy and inaccurate data and extract from them useful information. The shift in emphasis towards system level science for geospace also necessitates the development of large-scale and multi-scale models. The development of large-scale models capable of capturing the global dynamics of the Earth's space environment requires investment in research team efforts that go beyond what can typically be funded under the traditional grants programs. This calls for effective interdisciplinary collaboration and efficient leveraging of resources both nationally and internationally. This presentation will provide an overview of current and planned initiatives, programs, and activities at the National Science Foundation pertaining to space weathe research.
Tobiska, W. Kent; Bouwer, S. Dave
Space weather, the shorter-term variable impact of the Sun’s photons, solar wind particles, and interplanetary magnetic field upon the Earth’s environment, adversely affects our technological systems. These technological systems, including their space component, are increasingly being seen as a way to help solve 21st Century problems such as climate change, energy access, fresh water availability, and transportation coordination. Thus, the effects of space weather on space systems and assets must be mitigated and operational space weather using automated distributed networks has emerged as a common operations methodology. The evolution of space weather operations is described and the description of distributed network architectures is provided, including their use of tiers, data objects, redundancy, and time domain definitions. There are several existing distributed networks now providing space weather information and the lessons learned in developing those networks are discussed along with the details of examples for the Solar Irradiance Platform (SIP), Communication Alert and Prediction System (CAPS), GEO Alert and Prediction System (GAPS), LEO Alert and Prediction System (LAPS), Radiation Alert and Prediction System (RAPS), and Magnetosphere Alert and Prediction System (MAPS).
Baker, D. N.
Vulnerability of society to extreme space weather is an issue of increasing worldwide concern. For example, electric power networks connecting widely separated geographic areas may incur devastating damage induced by geomagnetic storms. Also, the miniaturization of electronic components in spacecraft systems makes them potentially much more susceptible to damage during space weather disturbances. The conclusion of a recent National Academy of Sciences report was that severe space weather events can cause tens of millions to many billions of dollars of damage to space and ground-based assets during major solar storms. The most extreme events could cause months-long power outages and could cost >1$ trillion. In this presentation, we discuss broad socioeconomic impacts of space weather and also discuss the immense potential benefits of improved space weather forecasts. Such forecasts take advantage of our increased understanding of the Earth’s space environmental conditions and the causative solar drivers. We consider scenarios of how forecasts could be used most effectively by policy makers and management officials.
Cessateur, Gaël; Barthelemy, Mathieu
In the framework of the JUICE mission, characterization of Galilean satellites atmospheres is a priority. Although Ganymede and Europa possess a faint atmosphere, their exosphere show emissions features due to both solar UV flux as well as precipitating particles. Using the atmospheric model proposed by Marconi (2006,2007), we have developed a model of exospheric emissions by only considering primary collisions. Two regions will be considered for Ganymede, a polar one mainly dominated by oxygen, and an equatorial one with the predominance of water. Model of Europa's atmosphere presents an uniform one dominated by oxygen. Since Ganymede has its own magnetic field, the polar regions are mainly affected by particle precipitations while in case of Europe, the whole atmosphere has to be considered. Comparison with direct observations such as local measurements from Galileo (electronic density), or remote observations with the Hubble Space Telescope in the UV (oxygen lines at 130.5 and 135.5 nm), shows a good agreement which ensures us to provide reasonable constraints for the JUICE mission.
Golightly, Michael J.
) flight controllers use real-time space weather data to detect and assess the impact of solar particle events, outer electron belt enhancements, the formation of pseudo-stable additional trapped radiation belts, and the solar cycle modulation of trapped radiation belts and galactic cosmic rays. Energetic particle data from GOES spacecraft are automatically ingested from NOAA Space Environment Center data servers and used to drive a model for the estimating the exposure to astronauts from solar particle events. While adequate for current manned space flight support, the existing operational space weather support system requires improvements to address the anticipated evolution in both the character of manned missions as well as space flight operations management. Necessary space weather data improvements include: reliably available (near) real-time space weather data on a fixed schedule via redundant access methods that support autonomous data acquisition by computer systems behind enterprise firewalls; and rapid transition of promising research sensors into operational systems.
We present the ambitions of the SWUSV (Space Weather and Ultraviolet Solar Variability) Microsatellite Mission that encompasses three major scientific objectives: (1) Space Weather including the prediction and detection of major eruptions and coronal mass ejections (Lyman-Alpha and Herzberg continuum imaging); (2) solar forcing on the climate through radiation and their interactions with the local stratosphere (UV spectral irradiance from 180 to 400 nm by bands of 20 nm, plus Lyman-Alpha and the CN bandhead); (3) simultaneous radiative budget of the Earth, UV to IR, with an accuracy better than 1% in differential. The paper briefly outlines the mission and describes the five proposed instruments of the model payload: SUAVE (Solar Ultraviolet Advanced Variability Experiment), an optimized telescope for FUV (Lyman-Alpha) and MUV (200-220 nm Herzberg continuum) imaging (sources of variability); UPR (Ultraviolet Passband Radiometers), with 64 UV filter radiometers; a vector magnetometer; thermal plasma measurements and Langmuir probes; and a total and spectral solar irradiance and Earth radiative budget ensemble (SERB, Solar irradiance & Earth Radiative Budget). SWUSV is proposed as a small mission to CNES and to ESA for a possible flight as early as 2017-2018.
Damé, Luc; Meftah, Mustapha; Hauchecorne, Alain; Keckhut, Philippe; Sarkissian, Alain; Marchand, Marion; Irbah, Abdenour; Quémerais, Éric; Bekki, Slimane; Foujols, Thomas; Kretzschmar, Matthieu; Cessateur, Gaël; Shapiro, Alexander; Schmutz, Werner; Kuzin, Sergey; Slemzin, Vladimir; Urnov, Alexander; Bogachev, Sergey; Merayo, José; Brauer, Peter; Tsinganos, Kanaris; Paschalis, Antonis; Mahrous, Ayman; Khaled, Safinaz; Ghitas, Ahmed; Marzouk, Besheir; Zaki, Amal; Hady, Ahmed A.; Kariyappa, Rangaiah
We present the ambitions of the SWUSV (Space Weather and Ultraviolet Solar Variability) Microsatellite Mission that encompasses three major scientific objectives: (1) Space Weather including the prediction and detection of major eruptions and coronal mass ejections (Lyman-Alpha and Herzberg continuum imaging); (2) solar forcing on the climate through radiation and their interactions with the local stratosphere (UV spectral irradiance from 180 to 400 nm by bands of 20 nm, plus Lyman-Alpha and the CN bandhead); (3) simultaneous radiative budget of the Earth, UV to IR, with an accuracy better than 1% in differential. The paper briefly outlines the mission and describes the five proposed instruments of the model payload: SUAVE (Solar Ultraviolet Advanced Variability Experiment), an optimized telescope for FUV (Lyman-Alpha) and MUV (200–220 nm Herzberg continuum) imaging (sources of variability); UPR (Ultraviolet Passband Radiometers), with 64 UV filter radiometers; a vector magnetometer; thermal plasma measurements and Langmuir probes; and a total and spectral solar irradiance and Earth radiative budget ensemble (SERB, Solar irradiance & Earth Radiative Budget). SWUSV is proposed as a small mission to CNES and to ESA for a possible flight as early as 2017–2018. PMID:25685424
Crosby, Norma; Veronig, Astrid; Robbrecht, Eva; Vrsnak, Bojan; Vennerstrom, Susanne; Malandraki, Olga; Dalla, Silvia; Srivastava, Nandita; Hesse, Michael; Odstrcil, Dusan
Tools for forecasting geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms are and have been developed under the three-year EU FP7 COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles) collaborative project. In its final year, the validation and implementation of the produced tools into an operational space weather alert system is now underway. Geomagnetic and SEP radiation storm alerts are being based on the COMESEP definition of risk. The COMESEP alert system will provide notifications for the space weather community. To achieve this the system relies on both models and data, the latter including near real-time data as well as historical data. One of the important outcomes of the scientific analysis has been to identify key ingredients that lead to magnetic storms and SEP events. COMESEP is a unique cross-collaboration effort and bridges the gap between the SEP, coronal mass ejection and terrestrial effects scientific communities. For more information see the project website (http://www.comesep.eu/). This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252).
Cowee, Misa; Chen, Yuxi; Desai, Ravindra; Hassan, Ehab; Kalmoni, Nadine; Lin, Dong; Depascuale, Sebastian; Hughes, Randall Scott; Zhou, Hong
The fifth Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School was held June 1st - July 24th, 2015, at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). With renewed support from the Institute of Geophysics, Planetary Physics, and Signatures (IGPPS) and additional support from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science, we hosted a new class of five students from various U.S. and foreign research institutions. The summer school curriculum includes a series of structured lectures as well as mentored research and practicum opportunities. Lecture topics including general and specialized topics in the field of space weather were given by a number of researchers affiliated with LANL. Students were given the opportunity to engage in research projects through a mentored practicum experience. Each student works with one or more LANL-affiliated mentors to execute a collaborative research project, typically linked with a larger ongoing research effort at LANL and/or the student’s PhD thesis research. This model provides a valuable learning experience for the student while developing the opportunity for future collaboration. This report includes a summary of the research efforts fostered and facilitated by the Space Weather Summer School. These reports should be viewed as work-in-progress as the short session typically only offers sufficient time for preliminary results. At the close of the summer school session, students present a summary of their research efforts. Titles of the papers included in this report are as follows: Full particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation of whistler wave generation, Hybrid simulations of the right-hand ion cyclotron anisotropy instability in a sub-Alfvénic plasma flow, A statistical ensemble for solar wind measurements, Observations and models of substorm injection dispersion patterns, Heavy ion effects on Kelvin-Helmholtz instability: hybrid study, Simulating plasmaspheric electron densities with a two
Bol, A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Abshire, W. E.
Weather forecasters, particularly those in broadcasting, are the primary conduit to the public for information on climate and climate change. However, many weather forecasters remain skeptical of model-based climate projections. To address this issue, The COMET Program developed an hour-long online lesson of how climate models work, targeting an audience of weather forecasters. The module draws on forecasters' pre-existing knowledge of weather, climate, and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In order to measure learning outcomes, quizzes were given before and after the lesson. Preliminary results show large learning gains. For all people that took both pre and post-tests (n=238), scores improved from 48% to 80%. Similar pre/post improvement occurred for National Weather Service employees (51% to 87%, n=22 ) and college faculty (50% to 90%, n=7). We believe these results indicate a fundamental misunderstanding among many weather forecasters of (1) the difference between weather and climate models, (2) how researchers use climate models, and (3) how they interpret model results. The quiz results indicate that efforts to educate the public about climate change need to include weather forecasters, a vital link between the research community and the general public.
Johnson, L. P.; Ng, C.; Marchese, P.; Austin, S.; Frost, J.; Cheung, T. D.; Robbins, I.; Carlson, B. E.; Steiner, J. C.; Tremberger, G.; Paglione, T.; Damas, C.; Howard, A.; Scalzo, F.
Space Weather and Global Climate Impacts are critical items on the present national and international science agendas. Understanding and forecasting solar activity is increasingly important for manned space flight, unmanned missions (including communications satellites, satellites that monitor the space and earth environment), and regional power grids. The ability to predict the effects of forcings and feedback mechanisms on global and local climate is critical to survival of the inhabitants of planet Earth. It is therefore important to motivate students to continue their studies via advanced degrees and pursue careers related to these areas. This CUNY-based initiative, supported by NASA and NSF, provided undergraduate research experience for more than 70 students in topics ranging from urban impacts of global climate change to magnetic rope structure, solar flares and CMEs. Other research topics included investigations of the ionosphere using a CubeSat, stratospheric aerosols in Jupiter's atmosphere, and ocean climate modeling. Mentors for the primarily summer research experiences included CUNY faculty, GISS and GSFC scientists. Students were recruited from CUNY colleges as well as other colleges including Spelman, Cornell, Rutgers and SUNY colleges. Fifty-eight percent of the undergraduate students were under-represented minorities and thirty-four percent were female. Many of the research teams included high school teachers and students as well as graduate students. Supporting workshops for students included data analysis and visualization tools, space weather, planetary energy balance and BalloonSats. The project is supported by NASA awards NNX10AE72G and NNX09AL77G, and NSF REU Site award 0851932.
Williamson, Samuel P.; Babcock, Michael R.; Bonadonna, Michael F.
As the world's commercial infrastructure grows more dependent on sensitive electronics and space-based technologies, the global economy is becoming increasingly vulnerable to solar storms. Experts from the federal government, academia, and the private sector met to discuss the societal effects of major solar storms and other space weather at the fifth annual Space Weather Enterprise Forum (SWEF), held on 21 June 2011 at the National Press Club in Washington, D. C. More than 200 members of the space weather community attended this year's SWEF, which focused on the consequences of severe space weather for national security, critical infrastructure, and human safety. Participants also addressed the question of how to prepare for and mitigate those consequences as the current solar cycle approaches and reaches its peak, expected in 2013. This year's forum included details of plans for a "Unified National Space Weather Capability," a new interagency initiative which will be implemented over the next two years, designed to improve forecasting, warning, and other services ahead of the coming solar maximum.
Auchere, Frederic; Gopalswamy, Nat
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIR) are the sources of intense space weather in the heliosphere. Most of the current knowledge on CMEs accumulated over the past few decades has been derived from observations made from the Sun-Earth line, which is not the ideal vantage point to observe Earth-affecting CMEs (Gopalswamy et al., 2011a,b). In this paper, the advantages of remote-sensing and in-situ observations from the Sun-Earth L5 point are discussed. Locating a mission at Sun-Earth L5 has several key benefits for solar physics and space weather: (1) off the Sun-Earth line view is critical in observing Earth-arriving parts of CMEs, (2) L5 coronagraphic observations can also provide near-Sun space speed of CMEs, which is an important input to models that forecast Earth-arrival time of CMEs, (3) backside and frontside CMEs can be readily distinguished even without inner coronal imagers, (4) preceding CMEs in the path of Earth-affecting CMEs can be identified for a better estimate of the travel time, (5) CIRs reach the L5 point a few days before they arrive at Earth, and hence provide significant lead time before CIR arrival, (6) L5 observations can provide advance knowledge of CME and CIR source regions (coronal holes) rotating to Earth view, and (7) magnetograms obtained from L5 can improve the surface magnetic field distribution used as input to MHD models that predict the background solar wind. The paper also discusses L5 mission concepts that can be achieved in the near future. References Gopalswamy, N., Davila, J. M., St. Cyr, O. C., Sittler, E. C., Auchère, F., Duvall, T. L., Hoeksema, J. T., Maksimovic, M., MacDowall, R. J., Szabo, A., Collier, M. R. (2011a), Earth-Affecting Solar Causes Observatory (EASCO): A potential International Living with a Star Mission from Sun-Earth L5 JASTP 73, 658-663, DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2011.01.013 Gopalswamy, N., Davila, J. M., Auchère, F., Schou, J., Korendyke, C. M. Shih, A., Johnston, J. C
Vanlomel, Petra; Gressl, Corinna; Lapenta, Giovanni; Crosby, Norma B.; Cessateur, Gaël
Involvement of people outside the scientific community in space weather becomes more and more an issue. To raise awareness and reach involvement, we have to come up with a tide communication plan that answers the questions: what, to whom, why, when, how, by whom? One of the tools to get peoples attention and to communicate about space weather is education, both formal and informal. In the FP7 project eHEROES, a considerable effort was put in communication and dissemination through education to different sorts of audiences. We will shed some light on 'Classroom', 'Hitchhiker's guide to space' and our Quiz-database.
Garraffo, C.; Drake, J. J.; Cohen, O.
A planet orbiting in the “habitable zone” of our closest neighboring star, Proxima Centauri, has recently been discovered, and the next natural question is whether or not Proxima b is “habitable.” Stellar winds are likely a source of atmospheric erosion that could be particularly severe in the case of M dwarf habitable zone planets that reside close to their parent star. Here, we study the stellar wind conditions that Proxima b experiences over its orbit. We construct 3D MHD models of the wind and magnetic field around Proxima Centauri using a surface magnetic field map for a star of the same spectral type and scaled to match the observed ˜600 G surface magnetic field strength of Proxima. We examine the wind conditions and dynamic pressure over different plausible orbits that sample the constrained parameters of the orbit of Proxima b. For all the parameter space explored, the planet is subject to stellar wind pressures of more than 2000 times those experienced by Earth from the solar wind. During an orbit, Proxima b is also subject to pressure changes of 1-3 orders of magnitude on timescales of a day. Its magnetopause standoff distance consequently undergoes sudden and periodic changes by a factor of 2-5. Proxima b will traverse the interplanetary current sheet twice each orbit, and likely crosses into regions of subsonic wind quite frequently. These effects should be taken into account in any physically realistic assessment or prediction of its atmospheric reservoir, characteristics, and loss.
"Space weather is a serious matter that can affect human economies around the world," Tamara Dickinson, a senior policy analyst with the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), told attendees at the 2012 Space Weather Enterprise Forum, held 5 June in Washington, D. C. With the 2013 solar maximum nearing, researchers and government agencies are focusing on how the greater solar activity could affect our increasingly technological society and what measures can be taken to help prevent or mitigate any threats to the electricity grid, GPS, and other potentially vulnerable technologies. Dickenson said that there has been an increased awareness about space weather in the White House and that President Barack Obama recently has requested briefing memos on the topic. She highlighted several efforts the administration is taking related to space weather, including a forthcoming national Earth observation strategy, which could be released in July and will include an assessment of space weather. She explained that the strategy document will be part of the fiscal year 2014 presidential budget request and that it will be updated every 3 years.
and Sheeley), the Air Force Phillips Lab (Space Effects Division - Webb and Kahler ), the NOAA Space Environment Center (Rapid Prototyping Center...Solar Physics, eds. K. S. Balasubramaniam, J. Harvey, D. Rabin , ASP Conf. Ser. 140, 155-160. Harvey, J. and Worden, J. 1998, “Calibrating Solar Polar
Solar Physics Branch (Code 7660, Wang and Sheeley), the Air Force Phillips Lab (Space Effects Division, Kahler and Webb), NOAA Space Environment...eds. K. Balasubramaniam, J. Harvey, D. Rabin , ASP Conf. Ser. (San Francisco: ASP), in press. Y. M. Wang, N. R. Sheeley, Jr., K. P. Dere, R. T. Duffin
Mateev, Lachezar; Velinov, Peter; Tassev, Yordan
The actual problems of solar-terrestrial physics, in particular of space weather are related to the prediction of the space environment state and are solved by means of different analyses and models. The development of these investigations can be considered also from another side. This is the philosophical and mathematical approach towards this physical reality. What does it constitute? We have a set of physical processes which occur in the Sun and interplanetary space. All these processes interact with each other and simultaneously participate in the general process which forms the space weather. Let us now consider the Leibniz's monads (G.W. von Leibniz, 1714, Monadologie, Wien; Id., 1710, Théodicée, Amsterdam) and use some of their properties. There are total 90 theses for monads in the Leibniz's work (1714), f.e. "(1) The Monad, of which we shall here speak, is nothing but a simple substance, which enters into compounds. By 'simple' is meant 'without parts'. (Theod. 10.); … (56) Now this connexion or adaptation of all created things to each and of each to all, means that each simple substance has relations which express all the others, and, consequently, that it is a perpetual living mirror of the universe. (Theod. 130, 360.); (59) … this universal harmony, according to which every substance exactly expresses all others through the relations it has with them. (63) … every Monad is, in its own way, a mirror of the universe, and the universe is ruled according to a perfect order. (Theod. 403.)", etc. Let us introduce in the properties of monads instead of the word "monad" the word "process". We obtain the following statement: Each process reflects all other processes and all other processes reflect this process. This analogy is not formal at all, it reflects accurately the relation between the physical processes and their unity. The category monad which in the Leibniz's Monadology reflects generally the philosophical sense is fully identical with the
Tobiska, W. Kent; Tomky, Alyssa
There is great interest in developing an international standard related to space weather in order to specify the tools and parameters needed for space systems operations. In particular, a standard is important for satellite operators who may not be familiar with space weather. In addition, there are others who participate in space systems operations that would also benefit from such a document. For example, the developers of software systems that provide LEO satellite orbit determination, radio communication availability for scintillation events (GEO-to-ground L and UHF bands), GPS uncertainties, and the radiation environment from ground-to-space for commercial space tourism. These groups require recent historical data, current epoch specification, and forecast of space weather events into their automated or manual systems. Other examples are national government agencies that rely on space weather data provided by their organizations such as those represented in the International Space Environment Service (ISES) group of 14 national agencies. Designers, manufacturers, and launchers of space systems require real-time, operational space weather parameters that can be measured, monitored, or built into automated systems. Thus, a broad scope for the document will provide a useful international standard product to a variety of engineering and science domains. The structure of the document should contain a well-defined scope, consensus space weather terms and definitions, and internationally accepted descriptions of the main elements of space weather, its sources, and its effects upon space systems. Appendices will be useful for describing expanded material such as guidelines on how to use the standard, how to obtain specific space weather parameters, and short but detailed descriptions such as when best to use some parameters and not others; appendices provide a path for easily updating the standard since the domain of space weather is rapidly changing with new advances
solar wind, high cosmic ray flux and North Atlantic cloudiness, caused by CR excess, with negative sequences for wheat agriculture in this humid zone. In the same time wheat markets in the South Europe (Spain, Italy) show reliable sensitivity to space weather state in the opposite (maximum) phase of solar activity with strong solar wind, low cosmic ray flux and deficit of CR input in cloudiness in North Atlantic with next deficit of precipitations in the arid zones of the South Europe. In the same time the large part of markets in the Central Europe zone, functioned far from "high risk agriculture state" show the absence of any effects-responses on space weather. This asymmetry is in accordance with model expectation in the frame of proposed approach. For extremely case of the Iceland agriculture we show that drop of agriculture production in unfavorable states of space weather leads to mass mortality from famines correlated with phase of solar activity with high confi- dence level. We discuss possible increasing of sensitivity of wheat markets to space weather effects in condition of drastic and fast change of modern climate, caused by global warming of the Earth atmosphere with fast and unexpected shift of numerous agriculture regions in the world to state of "high risk agriculture zone". Publications on the theme of review: I. "INFLUENCE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY ON THE STATE OF THE WHEAT MARKET IN MEDIEVAL ENGLAND", Solar Physics 223: 335-356, 2004. c 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers II. "SPACE CLIMATE MANIFESTATION IN EARTH PRICES - FROM MEDIEVAL ENGLAND UP TO MODERN U.S.A.", LEV PUSTIL'NIK and GREGORY YOM DIN, Solar Physics, 224: 473-481 c Springer 2005
DeForest, Craig; Howard, T.; Dickinson, J.; Epperly, M.; Kief, C.
Heliospheric imaging data have been shown to improve space weather prediction by an order of magnitude, and heliospheric monitoring by the SMEI and STEREO-HI instruments have proven to be extremely useful for understanding heliospheric conditions near Earth. However, SMEI is approaching end-of-life and the STEREOs are drifting away from favorable Earth-viewing geometry just as the new solar cycle begins. CHIME is an innovative, miniaturized, fully functional space weather heliospheric monitor that fits within the 3U CubeSat envelope and can be flown individually (as a scientific or demonstrator mission) or in a swarm (to attain operational-class reliability) at a small fraction of the cost of a conventional mission. Here we describe the CHIME concept and its use with the automated processing pipeline AICMED to improve space weather prediction.
Many aspects of modern society are susceptible to space weather effects. Pertinent space weather effects include high-energy electromagnetic and particle radiation, changes of atmospheric drag, reduction of GPS accuracy or complete loss of GPS signals, communication outages, and the generation of potentially harmful DC currents in our electric power grid. Beginning in the early 1990s, researchers and government have been increasingly aware of the need to understand the causes of space weather, and to find ways to mitigate deleterious effects associated with it. New research and development programs have been created to address space weather primarily at NASA but also at other agencies. This investment has been very fruitful by generating a new class of entirely new space weather specification and forecast capabilities. This presentation provides an overview of space weather causes and effects, as well as of research and development to forecast and mitigate space weather effects. It will include a discussion of modern space weather analysis and forecasting, and conclude by pointing out paths into the future.
Singer, H. J.; Balch, C. C.; Biesecker, D. A.; Matsuo, T.; Onsager, T. G.
Space weather can be defined as conditions in the vicinity of Earth and in the interplanetary environment that are caused primarily by solar processes and influenced by conditions on Earth and its atmosphere. Examples of space weather are the conditions that result from geomagnetic storms, solar particle events, and bursts of intense solar flare radiation. These conditions can have impacts on modern-day technologies such as GPS or electric power grids and on human activities such as astronauts living on the International Space Station or explorers traveling to the moon or Mars. While the ultimate space weather goal is accurate prediction of future space weather conditions, for many applications and services, we rely on real-time and near-real time observations and model results for the specification of current conditions. In this presentation, we will describe the space weather system and the need for real-time and near-real time data that drive the system, characterize conditions in the space environment, and are used by models for assimilation and validation. Currently available data will be assessed and a vision for future needs will be given. The challenges for establishing real-time data requirements, as well as acquiring, processing, and disseminating the data will be described, including national and international collaborations. In addition to describing how the data are used for official government products, we will also give examples of how these data are used by both the public and private sector for new applications that serve the public.
Gilchrist, Brian E.; Krause, Linda Habash; Gallagher, Dennis Lee; Bilen, Sven Gunnar; Fuhrhop, Keith; Hoegy, Walt R.; Inderesan, Rohini; Johnson, Charles; Owens, Jerry Keith; Powers, Joseph; Voronka, Nestor; Williams, Scott
Tethered satellites offer the potential to be an important enabling technology to support operational space weather monitoring systems. Space weather "nowcasting" and forecasting models rely on assimilation of near-real-time (NRT) space environment data to provide warnings for storm events and deleterious effects on the global societal infrastructure. Typically, these models are initialized by a climatological model to provide "most probable distributions" of environmental parameters as a function of time and space. The process of NRT data assimilation gently pulls the climate model closer toward the observed state (e.g., via Kalman smoothing) for nowcasting, and forecasting is achieved through a set of iterative semi-empirical physics-based forward-prediction calculations. Many challenges are associated with the development of an operational system, from the top-level architecture (e.g., the required space weather observatories to meet the spatial and temporal requirements of these models) down to the individual instruments capable of making the NRT measurements. This study focuses on the latter challenge: we present some examples of how tethered satellites (from 100s of m to 20 km) are uniquely suited to address certain shortfalls in our ability to measure critical environmental parameters necessary to drive these space weather models. Examples include long baseline electric field measurements, magnetized ionospheric conductivity measurements, and the ability to separate temporal from spatial irregularities in environmental parameters. Tethered satellite functional requirements are presented for two examples of space environment observables.
Cooper, R.; Cowardin, H.; Engelhar, D.; Plis, Elena; Hoffman, R.
A project to investigate space environment effects on specific materials with interest to remote sensing was initiated in 2016. The goal of the project is to better characterize changes in the optical properties of polymers and Mylar, specifically those found in multi-layered spacecraft insulation, due to electron bombardment. Previous analysis shows that chemical bonds break and potentially reform when exposed to high energy electrons. Among other properties these chemical changes altered the optical reflectance as documented in laboratory analysis. This paper presents results of the initial experiment results focused on the exposure of materials to various fluences of high energy electrons, used to simulate a portion of the geosynchronous space environment. The paper illustrates how the spectral reflectance changes as a function of time on orbit with respect to GEO environmental factors and investigates the survivability of the material after multiple electron doses. These results provide a baseline for analysis of aging effects on satellite systems used for remote sensing. They also provide preliminary analysis on what materials are most likely to encompass the high area-to-mass population of space debris in the geosynchronous environment. Lastly, the paper provides the results of the initial experimentation as a proof of concept for space aging on polymers and Mylar for conducting more experiments with a larger subset of spacecraft materials.
Wise, Michael; van Haarlem, Michiel; Lawrence, Gareth; Reid, Simon; Bos, Andre; Rawlings, Steve; Salvini, Stef; Mitchell, Cathryn; Soleimani, Manuch; Amado, Sergio; Teresa, Vital
capable of generating various responses including alerting external observatories or reallocating internal observing capacity to create short cadence (1-10 sec) images of the Sun. More uniquely, the core development, already invested by LOFAR to produce astronomical images of the sky, makes an excellent framework on which to build a near real-time ionospheric monitor and thereby study the effects of space weather events on our atmosphere. One of the key technical challenges to producing high quality scientific images in the low frequency radio regime are the effects of the active ionosphere over the detector array on signal propagation through the earth's atmosphere. To correct for these effects, the current LOFAR system includes an adaptive calibration employing both single and multi-layer phase screen models for the ionosphere. The output of this calibration automatically produces continuous ionospheric measurements with a data cadence in seconds. Although limited to the sky over the array, the resulting TEC maps can have vertical and horizontal resolutions down to 2m and relative accuracies of 0.001 TECU. The intent is to publish both Solar and ionospheric data-streams to the space weather community providing an excellent complement to existing space-based monitoring assets. In this presentation, we will describe the current and planned capabilities of the LOFAR system as well as show some first examples of the potential data products taken during the ongoing commissioning phase. We will also discuss plans to build upon the current LOFAR infrastructure and provide a source of near real-time monitoring data to the space weather community.
Slavin, J. A.
Increasing activity on the Sun is allowing MESSENGER to make its first observations of Mercury's magnetosphere under extreme solar wind conditions. At Earth interplanetary shock waves and coronal mass ejections produce severe "space weather" in the form of large geomagnetic storms that affect telecommunications, space systems, and ground-based power grids. In the case of Mercury the primary effect of extreme space weather in on the degree to which this it's weak global magnetic field can shield the planet from the solar wind. Direct impact of the solar wind on the surface of airless bodies like Mercury results in space weathering of the regolith and the sputtering of atomic species like sodium and calcium to high altitudes where they contribute to a tenuous, but highly dynamic exosphere. MESSENGER observations indicate that during extreme interplanetary conditions the solar wind plasma gains access to the surface of Mercury through three main regions: 1. The magnetospheric cusps, which fill with energized solar wind and planetary ions; 2. The subsolar magnetopause, which is compressed and eroded by reconnection to very low altitudes where the natural gyro-motion of solar wind protons may result in their impact on the surface; 3. The magnetotail where hot plasma sheet ions rapidly convect sunward to impact the surface on the nightside of Mercury. The possible implications of these new MESSENGER observations for our ability to predict space weather at Earth and other planets will be described.
Johnson, L. P.; Austin, S. A.; Howard, A. M.; Boxe, C.; Jiang, M.; Tulsee, T.; Chow, Y. W.; Zavala-Gutierrez, R.; Barley, R.; Filin, B.; Brathwaite, K.
This presentation describes projects at Medgar Evers College of the City University of New York that contribute to the preparation of a diverse workforce in the areas of ocean modeling, planetary atmospheres, space weather and space technology. Specific projects incorporating both undergraduate and high school students include Assessing Parameterizations of Energy Input to Internal Ocean Mixing, Reaction Rate Uncertainty on Mars Atmospheric Ozone, Remote Sensing of Solar Active Regions and Intelligent Software for Nano-satellites. These projects are accompanied by a newly developed Computational Earth and Space Science course to provide additional background on methodologies and tools for scientific data analysis. This program is supported by NSF award AGS-1359293 REU Site: CUNY/GISS Center for Global Climate Research and the NASA New York State Space Grant Consortium.
Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dasso, Sergio; Gonzalez-Esparza, J. Americo
The present work is the first of a three-part review on space weather in Latin America. It comprises the evolution of several Latin American institutions investing in space science since the 1960s, focusing on the solar-terrestrial interactions, which today is commonly called space weather. Despite recognizing advances in space research in all of Latin America, this review is restricted to the development observed in three countries in particular (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico), due to the fact that these countries have recently developed operational centers for monitoring space weather. The review starts with a brief summary of the first groups to start working with space science in Latin America. This first part of the review closes with the current status and the research interests of these groups, which are described in relation to the most significant works and challenges of the next decade in order to aid in the solving of space weather open issues.
Mendillo, M.; Wroten, J.; Baumgardner, J. L.; Barbieri, C.; Umbriaco, G.
We have recently installed a low-light-level, all-sky-imager (ASI) at the astronomical observatory in Asiago, Italy (45.8 N, 11.5 E, 41 N geomagnetic). The field-of-view for such a system can yield reliable observations from zenith down to about five degrees elevation angle. Atmospheric emissions arise from different altitudes and thus the spatial region observed by an ASI depends on the specific wavelength (and process) involved. For 6300 A emissions from atomic oxygen, diffuse aurora occur at ~200 km, ambient airglow at ~300 km and so-called Stable Auroral Red (SAR) arcs at ~400 km. From the Asiago site, the FOV at 400 km spans latitudes extending from southern Scandanavia to Northern Africa. For a magnetic latitude of 50 N, longitudes observed to the north extend from Ireland to Belarus. For a magnetic latitude of 30 N, longitudes to the south can be observed from Spain to Turkey. The SAR arc that occurred during the geomagnetic storm 26-27 September 2011 was, we think, the first-ever such event imaged from the ground in Europe. The SAR arc's location throughout the night maps to the inner magnetosphere where the plasmapause and inner edge of the ring current coincide. The spatial-temporal positions of these features determine the lowest latitudes of magnetosphere-ionospheric energy input during space weather events. We show that an all-sky-imager can thus be used to provide real-time information of this boundary over most of Europe—and thus the low-latitude limit of the radiowave scintillations associated with SAR arcs. Moreover, such information can be used for retrospective validations of global models that predict the latitude extent of space weather effects.
Technological infrastructures in space and on ground provide services on which modern society and economies rely. Space weather related research is funded under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (FP7) of the European Union in response to the need of protecting such critical infrastructures from the damage which could be caused by extreme space weather events. The calls for proposals published under the topic "Security of space assets from space weather events" of the FP7 Space Theme aimed to improve forecasts and predictions of disruptive space weather events as well as identify best practices to limit the impacts on space- and ground-based infrastructures and their data provision. Space weather related work was also funded under the topic "Exploitation of space science and exploration data", which aims to add value to space missions and Earth-based observations by contributing to the effective scientific exploitation of collected data. Since 2007 a total of 20 collaborative projects have been funded, covering a variety of physical phenomena associated with space weather, from ionospheric disturbances and scintillation, to geomagnetically induced currents at Earth's surface, to coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particles. This article provides an overview of the funded projects, touching upon some results and referring to specific websites for a more exhaustive description of the projects' outcomes.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large-scale magnetized plasma structures ejected from the Sun and propagate far into the interplanetary medium. CMEs represent energy output from the Sun in the form of magnetized plasma and electromagnetic radiation. The electromagnetic radiation suddenly increases the ionization content of the ionosphere, thus impacting communication and navigation systems. The plasma clouds can drive shocks that accelerate charged particles to very high energies in the interplanetary space, which pose radiation hazard to astronauts and space systems. The plasma clouds also arrive at Earth in about two days and impact Earth's magnetosphere, producing geomagnetic storms. The magnetic storms result in a number of effects including induced currents that can disrupt power grids, railroads, and underground pipelines. This lecture presents an overview of the origin, propagation, and geospace consequences of solar storms.
Manobianco, John T.; Taylor, Gregory E.; Case, Jonathan L.; Dianic, Allan V.; Wheeler, Mark W.; Zack, John W.; Nutter, Paul A.
Methodologies have been developed for (1) configuring mesoscale numerical weather-prediction models for execution on high-performance computer workstations to make short-range weather forecasts for the vicinity of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and (2) evaluating the performances of the models as configured. These methodologies have been implemented as part of a continuing effort to improve weather forecasting in support of operations of the U.S. space program. The models, methodologies, and results of the evaluations also have potential value for commercial users who could benefit from tailoring their operations and/or marketing strategies based on accurate predictions of local weather. More specifically, the purpose of developing the methodologies for configuring the models to run on computers at KSC and CCAFS is to provide accurate forecasts of winds, temperature, and such specific thunderstorm-related phenomena as lightning and precipitation. The purpose of developing the evaluation methodologies is to maximize the utility of the models by providing users with assessments of the capabilities and limitations of the models. The models used in this effort thus far include the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model ( Eta for short). The configuration of the MASS and RAMS is designed to run the models at very high spatial resolution and incorporate local data to resolve fine-scale weather features. Model preprocessors were modified to incorporate surface, ship, buoy, and rawinsonde data as well as data from local wind towers, wind profilers, and conventional or Doppler radars. The overall evaluation of the MASS, Eta, and RAMS was designed to assess the utility of these mesoscale models for satisfying the weather-forecasting needs of the U.S. space program. The evaluation methodology includes
Thieman, J. R.; Ng, C.; Hawkins, I.; Lewis, E.; Cline, T.
Fifty years ago the International Geophysical Year organized a unique and unprecedented program of research that united 60,000 scientists from 66 nations to study global phenomena concerning the Earth and its space environment. In that same spirit, "Space Weather Around the World" is a program to coordinate and facilitate the involvement of NASA heliophysics missions and scientists to inspire and educate a world-wide audience about the International Heliophysical Year (IHY). We will use the popular Sun-Earth Day annual event framework sponsored by the Sun-Earth Connection Education Forum to promote IHY science and the spirit of international collaboration. The theme for the March 2007 Sun-Earth Day: "IHY: Living in the Atmosphere of the Sun" was selected a year ago in anticipation of the IHY celebration. These efforts will be expanded through a series of coordinated programs under the theme "Space Weather Around the World" for Sun-Earth Day 2008. We will produce a live broadcast from China of the total solar eclipse on August 1st 2008 as the central event, highlighting investigations associated with the eclipse by the international heliophysics community. Additional collaborative efforts will include: a Space Weather Media Maker web-tool to allow educators and scientists to create their own multi-media resource to enhance teaching and learning at all levels; Rock-n-Sol, a musical composition by children internationally inspired by space weather and incorporating sonifications of solar data; and Space Weather Action Centers for students to track a solar storm featuring podcasts of multi-cultural perspectives on IHY. The anticipated audience would be millions of people internationally The science and E/PO heliophysics community has an exciting story to tell about IHY, and we look forward to the opportunity to share it globally.
Krause, L. Habash; Gilchrist, B. E.; Bilen, S.; Owens, J.; Voronka, N.; Furhop, K.
Space weather nowcasting and forecasting models require assimilation of near-real time (NRT) space environment data to improve the precision and accuracy of operational products. Typically, these models begin with a climatological model to provide "most probable distributions" of environmental parameters as a function of time and space. The process of NRT data assimilation gently pulls the climate model closer toward the observed state (e.g. via Kalman smoothing) for nowcasting, and forecasting is achieved through a set of iterative physics-based forward-prediction calculations. The issue of required space weather observatories to meet the spatial and temporal requirements of these models is a complex one, and we do not address that with this poster. Instead, we present some examples of how tethered satellites can be used to address the shortfalls in our ability to measure critical environmental parameters necessary to drive these space weather models. Examples include very long baseline electric field measurements, magnetized ionospheric conductivity measurements, and the ability to separate temporal from spatial irregularities in environmental parameters. Tethered satellite functional requirements will be presented for each space weather parameter considered in this study.
Pustilnik, Lev; Yom Din, Gregory; Zagnetko, Alexander
solar wind, high cosmic ray flux and North Atlantic cloudiness, caused by CR excess, with negative sequences for wheat agriculture in this humid zone. In the same time wheat markets in the South Europe (Spain, Italy) show reliable sensitivity to space weather state in the opposite (maximum) phase of solar activity with strong solar wind, low cosmic ray flux and deficit of CR input in cloudiness in North Atlantic with next deficit of precipitations in the arid zones of the South Europe. In the same time the large part of markets in the Central Europe zone, functioned far from "high risk agriculture state" show the absence of any effects-responses on space weather. This asymmetry is in accordance with model expectation in the frame of proposed approach. We discuss possible increasing of sensitivity of wheat markets to space weather effects in condition of drastic and fast change of modern climate, caused by global warming of the Earth atmosphere with fast and unexpected shift of numerous agriculture regions in the world to state of "high risk agriculture zone".
MacAlester, Mark H.; Murtagh, William
In 2010, the Department of Homeland Security's Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) partnered with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) to investigate the potential for extreme space weather conditions to impact National Security/Emergency Preparedness communications—those communications vital to a functioning government and to emergency and disaster response—in the United States. Given the interdependencies of modern critical infrastructure, the initial systematic review of academic research on space weather effects on communications expanded to other critical infrastructure sectors, federal agencies, and private sector organizations. While the effort is ongoing, and despite uncertainties inherent with this hazard, FEMA and the SWPC did draw some conclusions. If electric power remains available, an extreme space weather event will result in the intermittent loss of HF and similar sky wave radio systems, minimal direct impact to public safety line-of-sight radio and commercial cellular services, a relatively small loss of satellite services as a percentage of the total satellite fleet, interference or intermittent loss of satellite communications and GPS navigation and timing signals, and no first-order impact to consumer electronic devices. Vulnerability of electric power to an extreme geomagnetic storm remains the primary concern from an emergency management perspective, but actual impact is not well understood at present. A discussion of potential impacts to infrastructure from the loss of electric power from any hazard is provided using the 2011 record tornado outbreak in Alabama as an example.
Mendoza, Ricardo; Benjauthrit, Boonsieng
This paper presents a proposed approach for Ka-band link management for deep space applications using daily weather forecasts and discusses the tools that will be employed for operations. Performance metrics are also presented. The proposed approach will be tested in a two-year experiment campaign.
van der Linden, Ronald; Ben Moussa, Ali; Berghmans, David; Boulvin, Olivier; Boyes, David; Cabanas Parada, Carlos; Callebaut, Benoit; Clette, Frédéric; Dammasch, Ingolf; Delouille, Veronique; D'Huys, Elke; Dolla, Laurent; Dominique, Marie; Dufond, Jean-Luc; Ergen, Aydin; Giordanengo, Boris; Gissot, Samuel; Goryaev, Farid; Hochedez, Jean-Francois; Lemaâtre, Olivier; Lisnichenko, Pavel; Magdalenic, Jas-Mina; Mampaey, Benjamin; Marque, Christophe; Nicula, Bogdan; Podladchikova, Elena; Pylyser, Erik; Raynal, Sophie; Rodriguez, Luciano; Seaton, Daniël; van der Linden, Ronald; Vandersyppe, Anne; Vanlommel, Petra; Vanraes, Stéphane; Verbeeck, Cis; Verdini, Andrea; Wauters, Laurence; West, Matthew; Willems, Sarah; Zhukov, Andrei
The SIDC of the Royal Observatory of Belgium is a very active center for solar physics research, but also provides an operational service for data and services related to solar activity and space weather. In this poster we present the currently available data sets and products, with a focus on recent additions and new developments.
Zanetti, L. J.; Mauk, B. H.; Fox, N. J.; Barnes, R. J.; Weiss, M.; Sotirelis, T. S.; Raouafi, N.-E.; Kessel, R. L.; Becker, H. N.
The overarching goal and purpose of the study of space weather is clear—to understand and address the issues caused by solar disturbances on humans and technological systems. Space weather has evolved in the past few decades from a collection of concerned agencies and researchers to a critical function of the National Weather Service of NOAA. The general effects have also evolved from the well-known telegraph disruptions of the mid-1800s to modern day disturbances of the electric power grid, communications and navigation, human spaceflight and spacecraft systems. The last two items in this list, and specifically the effects of penetrating radiation, were the impetus for the space weather broadcast implemented on NASA's Van Allen Probes' twin pair of satellites, launched in August of 2012 and orbiting directly through Earth's severe radiation belts. The Van Allen Probes mission, formerly the Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP), was renamed soon after launch to honor the discoverer of Earth's radiation belts at the beginning of the space age, the late James Van Allen (the spacecraft themselves are still referred to as RBSP-A and RBSP-B). The Van Allen Probes are one part of NASA's Living With a Star program formulated to advance the scientific understanding of the connection between solar disturbances, the resulting heliospheric conditions, and their effects on the geospace and Earth environment.
Wang, Yao; Kulkarni, Deepak
Scheduled arriving aircraft demand may exceed airport arrival capacity when there is abnormal weather at an airport. In such situations, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) institutes ground-delay programs (GDP) to delay flights before they depart from their originating airports. Efficient GDP planning depends on the accuracy of prediction of airport capacity and demand in the presence of uncertainties in weather forecast. This paper presents a study of the impact of dynamic airport surface weather on GDPs. Using the National Traffic Management Log, effect of weather conditions on the characteristics of GDP events at selected busy airports is investigated. Two machine learning methods are used to generate models that map the airport operational conditions and weather information to issued GDP parameters and results of validation tests are described.
Daglis, I.; Anastasiadis, A.; Balasis, G.; Paronis, D.; Diamantopoulos, S.
Data sharing and access are major issues in space sciences, as they influence the degree of data exploitation. The project “Space-Data Routers” relies on space internetworking and in particular on Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN), which marks the new era in space communications, unifies space and earth communication infrastructures and delivers a set of tools and protocols for space-data exploitation. The main goal is to allow space agencies, academic institutes and research centers to share space-data generated by single or multiple missions, in an efficient, secure and automated manner. Here we are presenting the architecture and basic functionality of a DTN-based application specifically designed in the framework of the SDR project, for data query, retrieval and administration that will enable to address outstanding science questions related to space weather, by providing simultaneous real- time sampling of space plasmas from multiple points with cost-effective means and measuring of phenomena with higher resolution and better coverage. This work has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-SPACE-2010-1, SP1 Cooperation, Collaborative project) under grant agreement No 263330 (project title: Space-Data Routers for Exploiting Space Data). This presentation reflects only the authors’ views and the Union is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.
Riddick, Stephen E.; Hinton, David A.
A study has been performed on a computer code modeling an aircraft wake vortex spacing system during final approach. This code represents an initial engineering model of a system to calculate reduced approach separation criteria needed to increase airport productivity. This report evaluates model sensitivity toward various weather conditions (crosswind, crosswind variance, turbulent kinetic energy, and thermal gradient), code configurations (approach corridor option, and wake demise definition), and post-processing techniques (rounding of provided spacing values, and controller time variance).
Croft, Paul Joseph
Cranberry bog weather conditions and weather-related stress were investigated for development of crop yield prediction models and models to predict daily weather conditions in the bog. Field investigations and data gathering were completed at the Rutgers University Blueberry/Cranberry Research Center experimental bogs in Chatsworth, New Jersey. Study indicated that although cranberries generally exhibit little or no stomatal response to changing atmospheric conditions, the evaluation of weather-related stress could be accomplished via use of micrometeorological data. Definition of weather -related stress was made by establishing critical thresholds of the frequencies of occurrence, and magnitudes of, temperature and precipitation in the bog based on values determined by a review of the literature and a grower questionnaire. Stress frequencies were correlated with cranberry yield to develop predictive models based on the previous season's yield, prior season data, prior and current season data, current season data; and prior and current season data through July 31 of the current season. The predictive ability of the prior season models was best and could be used in crop planning and production. Further examination of bog micrometeorological data permitted the isolation of those weather conditions conducive to cranberry scald and allowed for the institution of a pilot scald advisory program during the 1991 season. The micrometeorological data from the bog was also used to develop models to predict daily canopy temperature and precipitation, based on upper air data, for grower use. Models were developed for each month for maximum and minimum temperatures and for precipitation and generally performed well. The modeling of bog weather conditions is an important first step toward daily prediction of cranberry weather-related stress.
Rathore, Balveer S.; Gupta, Dinesh C.; Kaushik, Subhash C.
Today's challenge for space weather research is to quantitatively predict the dynamics of the magnetosphere from measured solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions. Correlative studies between geomagnetic storms (GMSs) and the various interplanetary (IP) field/plasma parameters have been performed to search for the causes of geomagnetic activity and develop models for predicting the occurrence of GMSs, which are important for space weather predictions. We find a possible relation between GMSs and solar wind and IMF parameters in three different situations and also derived the linear relation for all parameters in three situations. On the basis of the present statistical study, we develop an empirical model. With the help of this model, we can predict all categories of GMSs. This model is based on the following fact: the total IMF Btotal can be used to trigger an alarm for GMSs, when sudden changes in total magnetic field Btotal occur. This is the first alarm condition for a storm's arrival. It is observed in the present study that the southward Bz component of the IMF is an important factor for describing GMSs. A result of the paper is that the magnitude of Bz is maximum neither during the initial phase (at the instant of the IP shock) nor during the main phase (at the instant of Disturbance storm time (Dst) minimum). It is seen in this study that there is a time delay between the maximum value of southward Bz and the Dst minimum, and this time delay can be used in the prediction of the intensity of a magnetic storm two-three hours before the main phase of a GMS. A linear relation has been derived between the maximum value of the southward component of Bz and the Dst, which is Dst = (-0.06) + (7.65) Bz +t. Some auxiliary conditions should be fulfilled with this, for example the speed of the solar wind should, on average, be 350 km s-1 to 750 km s-1, plasma β should be low and, most importantly, plasma temperature should be low for intense
Loughlin, S.; Habash Krause, L.
The purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of visualising complex space weather data in a Cave Automatic Virtual Environment (CAVE). Space weather is increasingly causing disruptions on Earth, such as power outages and disrupting communication to satellites. We wanted to display this space weather data within the CAVE since the data from instruments, models and simulations are typically too complex to understand on their own, especially when they are of 7 dimensions. To accomplish this, I created a VTK to NetCDF converter. NetCDF is a science data format, which stores array oriented scientific data. The format is maintained by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, and is used extensively by the atmospheric and space communities.
Hesse, Michael; Pulkkinen, Antti; Zheng, Yihua; Maddox, Marlo H.; Kuznetsova, Maria M.
Assessments of the present state and future evolution of the space environment heavily relies on timely access to appropriate environmental measurements. These, near real-time (nrt), measurements provide a direct assessment of local or remote space environment conditions, they contribute to a more global description of Space Weather parameters through assimilative models, and they provide essential input into forecasting models. Unlike meteorology, however, the provision of these data is not a mainstream activity in the sense that critical space environment data are often derived from research rather than operational sensors. In addition, space research is a relatively immature field, where SUbstantial gaps in our knowledge impede our ability to optimally use available data streams. In this presentation, we provide examples of presently employed nrt data streams and their utility. We further discuss challenges and opportunities associated with the present approach to space weather forecasting. Finally, an outlook toward the future will be presented.
Gurfinkel, Yury; Breus, Tamara
Researches of last two decades have shown that the cardiovascular system represents the most probable target for influence of helio - and geomagnetic activity. Both cardiovascular system and system of blood are connected very closely: one system cannot exist without another. For the same reason the effects perceived by one system, are easily transferred to another. Laboratory tests such as blood coagulation, platelet aggregation, and capillary blood velocity (CBV) performed in Scientific Clinical Center JSC "Russian Railways in patients suffering from coronary heart disease (CHD) revealed a high dependence with a level of geomagnetic activity. Results of these and other findings allow to assume that blood itself can be a sensor of geomagnetic fields variations because erythrocytes, platelets, and leucocytes bearing electric charge on membranes, and in a comparable magnetic field can change as own properties and properties of blood flow. It is interesting that not only geomagnetic disturbances, but also the periods of very quiet geomagnetic conditions affect a capillary blood velocity, slowing down it. It was shown during long-term experiment with isolation named 'MARS-500' in spatial facility of the Institute of Biomedical Problems in Moscow as imitation of an extended space mission to Mars. Using digital capillaroscope 'Russia', two crewmembers - medical doctors made records of microcirculation parameters at themselves and other four participants of 'Martian' team. Capillary records were performed before, during, and after period of isolation in medical module of MARS-500 facility. At the period of experiment nobody of crewmembers knew about real geomagnetic conditions. In days of active geomagnetic conditions average CBV has registered as 389 ± 167 μm/s, that statistically significant (p
Colbert, J. A.; Pembroke, A. D.
NASA's Community Coordinated Modeling Center [CCMC] hosts many of the simulations used by the community of space weather researchers and forecasters. In order to increase the speed of scientific discovery and model validation, we have developed Kameleon Live: a new interactive cloud based analysis and visualization engine that enables users to quickly share, validate, and disseminate their findings. Kameleon Live links several specialized software tools into a single operating environment allowing large datasets to be processed by a central computing system, allowing visualizations to be dynamically generated as users interact with the datasets. Together with feedback from end-users, Kameleon Live will help streamline the workflow for space weather researchers and forecasters.
The effects of space weather on modern technological systems are well documented in both the technical literature and popular accounts. Most often cited perhaps is the collapse within 90 seconds of northeastern Canada's Hydro-Quebec power grid during the great geomagnetic storm of March 1989, which left millions of people without electricity for up to 9 hours. This event exemplifies the dramatic impact that severe space weather can have on a technology upon which modern society critically depends. Nearly two decades have passed since the March 1989 event. During that time, awareness of the risks of severe space weather has increased among the affected industries, mitigation strategies have been developed, new sources of data have become available, new models of the space environment have been created, and a national space weather infrastructure has evolved to provide data, alerts, and forecasts to an increasing number of users. Now, 20 years later and approaching a new interval of increased solar activity, how well equipped are we to manage the effects of space weather? Have recent technological developments made our critical technologies more or less vulnerable? How well do we understand the broader societal and economic impacts of severe space weather events? Are our institutions prepared to cope with the effects of a 'space weather Katrina,' a rare, but according to the historical record, not inconceivable eventuality? On May 22 and 23, 2008, a one-and-a-half-day workshop held in Washington, D.C., under the auspices of the National Research Council's (NRC's) Space Studies Board brought together representatives of industry, the federal government, and the social science community to explore these and related questions. The key themes, ideas, and insights that emerged during the presentations and discussions are summarized in 'Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report' (The National Academies Press, Washington, D
DeForest, C E; Howard, T A; Webb, D F; Davies, J A
A polarizing heliospheric imager is a critical next generation tool for space weather monitoring and prediction. Heliospheric imagers can track coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they cross the solar system, using sunlight scattered by electrons in the CME. This tracking has been demonstrated to improve the forecasting of impact probability and arrival time for Earth-directed CMEs. Polarized imaging allows locating CMEs in three dimensions from a single vantage point. Recent advances in heliospheric imaging have demonstrated that a polarized imager is feasible with current component technology.Developing this technology to a high technology readiness level is critical for space weather relevant imaging from either a near-Earth or deep-space mission. In this primarily technical review, we developpreliminary hardware requirements for a space weather polarizing heliospheric imager system and outline possible ways to flight qualify and ultimately deploy the technology operationally on upcoming specific missions. We consider deployment as an instrument on NOAA's Deep Space Climate Observatory follow-on near the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point, as a stand-alone constellation of smallsats in low Earth orbit, or as an instrument located at the Sun-Earth L5 Lagrange point. The critical first step is the demonstration of the technology, in either a science or prototype operational mission context.
Voudouri, A.; Khain, P.; Carmona, I.; Bellprat, O.; Grazzini, F.; Avgoustoglou, E.; Bettems, J. M.; Kaufmann, P.
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models use parameterization schemes for physical processes, which often include free or poorly confined parameters. Model developers normally calibrate the values of these parameters subjectively to improve the agreement of forecasts with available observations, a procedure referred as expert tuning. A practicable objective multi-variate calibration method build on a quadratic meta-model (MM), that has been applied for a regional climate model (RCM) has shown to be at least as good as expert tuning. Based on these results, an approach to implement the methodology to an NWP model is presented in this study. Challenges in transferring the methodology from RCM to NWP are not only restricted to the use of higher resolution and different time scales. The sensitivity of the NWP model quality with respect to the model parameter space has to be clarified, as well as optimize the overall procedure, in terms of required amount of computing resources for the calibration of an NWP model. Three free model parameters affecting mainly turbulence parameterization schemes were originally selected with respect to their influence on the variables associated to daily forecasts such as daily minimum and maximum 2 m temperature as well as 24 h accumulated precipitation. Preliminary results indicate that it is both affordable in terms of computer resources and meaningful in terms of improved forecast quality. In addition, the proposed methodology has the advantage of being a replicable procedure that can be applied when an updated model version is launched and/or customize the same model implementation over different climatological areas.
Keller, L. P.
The exposed surfaces of lunar soil grains and lunar rocks become modified and coated over time with a thin rind of material (patina) through complex interactions with the space environment. These interactions encompass many processes including micrometeorite impacts, vapor and melt deposition, and solar wind implantation/sputtering effects that collectively are referred to as "space weathering". Studies of space weathering effects in lunar soils and rocks provide important clues to understanding the origin and evolution of the lunar regolith as well as aiding in the interpretation of global chemical and mineralogical datasets obtained by remote-sensing missions. The interpretation of reflectance spectra obtained by these missions is complicated because the patina coatings obscure the underlying rock mineralogy and compositions. Much of our understanding of these processes and products comes from decades of work on remote-sensing observations of the Moon, the analysis of lunar samples, and laboratory experiments. Space weathering effects collectively result in a reddened continuum slope, lowered albedo, and attenuated absorption features in reflectance spectra of lunar soils as compared to finely comminuted rocks from the same Apollo sites. Space weathering effects are largely surface-correlated, concentrated in the fine size fractions, and occur as amorphous rims on individual soil grains. Rims on lunar soil grains are highly complex and span the range between erosional surfaces modified by solar wind irradiation to depositional surfaces modified by the condensation of sputtered ions and impact-generated vapors. The optical effects of space weathering effects are directly linked to the production of nanophase Fe metal in lunar materials]. The size of distribution of nanophase inclusions in the rims directly affect optical properties given that large Fe(sup o) grains (approx 10 nm and larger) darken the sample (lower albedo) while the tiny Fe(sup o) grains (<5nm
Minow, Joseph I.; Parker, Linda Neergaard
The International Space Station (ISS) space environments community utilizes near real time space weather data to support a variety of ISS engineering and science activities. The team has operated the Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) suite of plasma instruments (two Langmuir probes, a floating potential probe, and a plasma impedance probe) on ISS since 2006 to obtain in-situ measurements of plasma density and temperature along the ISS orbit and variations in ISS frame potential due to electrostatic current collection from the plasma environment (spacecraft charging) and inductive (vxB) effects from the vehicle motion across the Earth s magnetic field. An ongoing effort is to use FPMU for measuring the ionospheric response to geomagnetic storms at ISS altitudes and investigate auroral charging of the vehicle as it passes through regions of precipitating auroral electrons. This work is challenged by restrictions on FPMU operations that limit observation time to less than about a third of a year. As a result, FPMU campaigns ranging in length from a few days to a few weeks are typically scheduled weeks in advance for ISS engineering and payload science activities. In order to capture geomagnetic storm data under these terms, we monitor near real time space weather data from NASA, NOAA, and ESA sources to determine solar wind disturbance arrival times at Earth likely to be geoeffective (including coronal mass ejections and high speed streams associated with coronal holes) and activate the FPMU ahead of the storm onset. Using this technique we have successfully captured FPMU data during a number of geomagnetic storm periods including periods with ISS auroral charging. This presentation will describe the strategies and challenges in capturing FPMU data during geomagnetic storms, the near real time space weather resources utilized for monitoring the space weather environment, and provide examples of auroral charging data obtained during storm operations.
Warnant, Rene; Lejeune, Sandrine; Wautelet, Gilles; Spits, Justine; Stegen, Koen; Stankov, Stan
The SWANS (Space Weather and Navigation Systems) research and development project (http://swans.meteo.be) is an initiative of the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) under the auspices of the Belgian Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence (STCE). The RMI SWANS objectives are: research on space weather and its effects on GNSS applications; permanent mon-itoring of the local/regional geomagnetic and ionospheric activity; and development/operation of relevant nowcast, forecast, and alert services to help professional GNSS/GALILEO users in mitigating space weather effects. Several SWANS developments have already been implemented and available for use. The K-LOGIC (Local Operational Geomagnetic Index K Calculation) system is a nowcast system based on a fully automated computer procedure for real-time digital magnetogram data acquisition, data screening, and calculating the local geomagnetic K index. Simultaneously, the planetary Kp index is estimated from solar wind measurements, thus adding to the service reliability and providing forecast capabilities as well. A novel hybrid empirical model, based on these ground-and space-based observations, has been implemented for nowcasting and forecasting the geomagnetic index, issuing also alerts whenever storm-level activity is indicated. A very important feature of the nowcast/forecast system is the strict control on the data input and processing, allowing for an immediate assessment of the output quality. The purpose of the LIEDR (Local Ionospheric Electron Density Reconstruction) system is to acquire and process data from simultaneous ground-based GNSS TEC and digital ionosonde measurements, and subsequently to deduce the vertical electron density distribution. A key module is the real-time estimation of the ionospheric slab thickness, offering additional infor-mation on the local ionospheric dynamics. The RTK (Real Time Kinematic) status mapping provides a quick look at the small-scale ionospheric effects on the RTK
Grande, Manuel; Andre, Nicolas
Over the next four years the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure will set up an entirely new European Planetary Space Weather service (PSWS). Europlanet RI is a part of of Horizon 2020 (EPN2020-RI, http://www.europlanet-2020-ri.eu). The Virtual Access Service, WP5 VA1 "Planetary Space Weather Services" will extend the concepts of space weather and space situational awareness to other planets in our Solar System and in particular to spacecraft that voyage through it. VA1 will make five entirely new 'toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: a general planetary space weather toolkit, as well as three toolkits dedicated to the following key planetary environments: Mars (in support ExoMars), comets (building on the expected success of the ESA Rosetta mission), and outer planets (in preparation for the ESA JUICE mission to be launched in 2022). This will give the European planetary science community new methods, interfaces, functionalities and/or plugins dedicated to planetary space weather in the tools and models available within the partner institutes. It will also create a novel event-diary toolkit aiming at predicting and detecting planetary events like meteor showers and impacts. A variety of tools (in the form of web applications, standalone software, or numerical models in various degrees of implementation) are available for tracing propagation of planetary and/or solar events through the Solar System and modelling the response of the planetary environment (surfaces, atmospheres, ionospheres, and magnetospheres) to those events. But these tools were not originally designed for planetary event prediction and space weather applications. So WP10 JRA4 "Planetary Space Weather Services" (PSWS) will provide the additional research and tailoring required to apply them for these purposes. The overall objectives of this Joint Research Aactivities will be to review, test, improve and adapt methods and tools
Severe space weather is characterized by intense particle radiation from the Sun and major geomagnetic storm caused by magnetized solar plasmas arriving at Earth. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are key players in both these aspects. CMEs traveling at super-Alfv nic speeds drive fast-mode MHD shocks that create the high levels of particle radiation. When a CME arrives at Earth, the CME-associated magnetic fields reconnect with Earth s magnetopause fields resulting in solar plasma entry into the magnetosphere and a geomagnetic storm depending on the magnetic structure of the CME. Particle radiation starts affecting geospace as soon as the CMEs leave the Sun and the geospace may be immersed in the radiation for several days. On the other hand, the geomagnetic storm happens only upon CME arrival at Earth. The requirements for the production of particles and magnetic storms by CMEs are different in a number of respects: solar source location, CME magnetic structure, conditions in the ambient solar wind, and shock-driving ability of CMEs. Intense shocks arriving at Earth have additional space weather effects such as sudden impulse that shrinks the magnetosphere often exposing satellites in geosynchronous orbit to the solar wind and energetic storm particle events. This paper highlights these space weather effects using CME observations space and ground based instruments during of solar cycles 23 and 24.
Thompson, M. S.; Christoffersen, R.; Zega, T. J.; Keller, L. P.
Space weathering alters the spectral properties of airless body surface materials by redden-ing and darkening their spectra and attenuating characteristic absorption bands, making it challenging to characterize them remotely [1,2]. It also causes a discrepency between laboratory analysis of meteorites and remotely sensed spectra from asteroids, making it difficult to associate meteorites with their parent bodies. The mechanisms driving space weathering include mi-crometeorite impacts and the interaction of surface materials with solar energetic ions, particularly the solar wind. These processes continuously alter the microchemical and structural characteristics of exposed grains on airless bodies. The change of these properties is caused predominantly by the vapor deposition of reduced Fe and FeS nanoparticles (npFe(sup 0) and npFeS respectively) onto the rims of surface grains . Sample-based analysis of space weathering has tra-ditionally been limited to lunar soils and select asteroidal and lunar regolith breccias [3-5]. With the return of samples from the Hayabusa mission to asteroid Itoka-wa , for the first time we are able to compare space-weathering features on returned surface soils from a known asteroidal body. Analysis of these samples will contribute to a more comprehensive model for how space weathering varies across the inner solar system. Here we report detailed microchemical and microstructal analysis of surface grains from Itokawa.
Ng, C.; Thompson, B. J.; Major, E. R.; Odenwald, S. F.; Cline, T. D.; Fox, K.; Lewis, E.; Stephenson, B.; Spadaccini, J.; Davis, H.
Space Weather is a relatively new discipline that studies the sun and Earth as a connected system with much relevance to our technological society. The Space Weather Living History project has gathered stories of observations, discoveries, events and impacts to build a timeline that will highlight the contributions of many scientists. In particular, pioneers and leaders who are active from the International Geophysical Year (IGY) to the present share their personal stories of how they are creating the history of space weather. The goal is to capture not just anecdotes, but careful analogies and insights of researchers and historians associated with various programs and events. Original historical materials also known as primary sources will allow both science and education communities to tell the stories of pioneers and leaders in space weather studies. Utilizing interactive media, this program aims to address important STEM needs, inspire the next generation of explorers, and feature women as role model. The products will align with Appendix H of the Next Generation Science Standards, the Nature of Science, where it is emphasized that 'science knowledge is cumulative and many people, from many generations and nations, have contributed to science knowledge.' This project augments existing historical records with education technology; connect the pioneers, current leaders and the nature and history of space weather with students, educators and the public, covering all areas of studies in Heliophysics. The project is supported by NASA award NNX11AJ61G.
Reiff, P. H.; Bala, R.
We are testing four real-time empirical space weather prediction functions to see which has been most successful, running in real time, for the past two years. Data from the "Wing Model" (presently running at SWPC in Boulder); the "Boyle Model" have been running in real time for a number of years, with the Boyle Index given online with alerts since 2003. The "Ram Model" and the "Newell Model" (also running at Rice University) have all been providing Kp predictions in real time for one year. We are testing their relative effectiveness in predicting Kp, and also their "up time", by using their actual predictions posted in real time against the final version Kp values. The Boyle model is a neural network model with 12-hour lookback time, using the Boyle Index as the base function, and yields one-hour and three-hour ahead predictions. The Ram model is similar to the Boyle model, but adds a pressure term to the base function. The Newell model is also a 12-hour neural net, but using the Newell function as its base. The Wing model gives a one- and four-hour prediction, with the prediction time variable with the solar wind velocity. All three Rice models are available in real time at http://mms.rice.edu/realtime/forecast.html , and the Wing model at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wingkp/ . Early results indicate that any of the three Rice neural net predictors had a slightly better success rate in predicting Kp in real time than Wing. In the image below from August 1-7, 2013, Wing's correlation coefficient was 0.682, with three hours of missing data (shown as -1). The Boyle function's correlation coefficient was 0.782, the Ram function was 0.788 and the Newell function was 0.793. In addition, Wing's prediction has missing data more often (roughly 1% over a year of data) than the Rice predictions (roughly 0.1% over a year of data), meaning it had less reliability. All of the models could successfully predict one hour-ahead Kp, on average, to better than one step in Kp, and the
Dal Lago, A.; Cecatto, J. R.; Costa, J. E. R.; Da Silva, L. A.; Rockenbach, M.; Braga, C. R.; Mendonca, R. R. S.; Mendes, O., Jr.; Koga, D.; Alves, L. R.; Becker-Guedes, F.; Wrasse, C. M.; Takahashi, H.; Banik de Padua, M.; De Nardin, C. M.
Since 2008, Brazilian government has been supporting a Space Weather Program at the National Institute for Space Research (INPE). The main objective of the "Brazilian Study and Monitoring of Space Weather (Embrace) Program" is to proceed with data collection and maintenance of Space Weather observation, modeling processes of the Sun-Earth on a global and regional scale, provide information in real time and make Space Weather forecast, and provide diagnostics of their effects on different technology systems through the collection of satellite data, surface and computational modeling. Advantage was taken on the long lasting expertise of the local scientific community, specially regarding local phenomena, such as the equatorial ionosphere and effects of the South American Magnetic Anomaly. Since April 2012, weekly briefings are held where scientists discuss and evaluate in a comprehensive manner all the chains of events from the sun, interplanetary space, earth magnetosphere, radiation belts, ionosphere, upper atmosphere, and reaching the effects on ground. One unique aspect of Embrace program is the strong emphasis on ionospheric and upper atmospheric disturbances. Recently, strong focus on radiation belt variability is progressively been included. Another important particularity of this program is the use of cosmic ray observations to develop nowcasting and forecasting of solar wind structures. In this work, we present an overview of activities and contributions related to the EMBRACE Program.
The advent of satellite-based augmentation systems has made it possible to navigate aircraft safely using radio signals emitted by global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) such as the Global Positioning System. As a signal propagates through the earth's ionosphere, it suffers delay that is proportional to the total electron content encountered along the raypath. Since the magnitude of this total electron content is strongly influenced by space weather, the safety and reliability of GNSS for airline navigation requires continual monitoring of the state of the ionosphere and calibration of ionospheric delay. This paper examines the impact of space weather on GNSS-based navigation and provides an overview of how the Wide Area Augmentation System protects its users from positioning error due to ionospheric disturbances
Zhang, S.; Keller, L. P.
While the processes and products of lunar space weathering are reasonably well-studied, their accumulation rates in lunar soils are poorly constrained. Previously, we showed that the thickness of solar wind irradiated rims on soil grains is a smooth function of their solar flare particle track density, whereas the thickness of vapor-deposited rims was largely independent of track density . Here, we have extended these preliminary results with data on additional grains from other mature soils.
Through its effects on GPS and other technologies, space weather can affect a variety of industries, including agriculture, commercial air travel, and emergency response. Speakers focused on these topics at a 22 June briefing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D. C. Solar flares can produce radio bursts that directly interfere with GPS signals. Solar activity can also cause ionospheric disturbances that produce distortions and delays in GPS signals, degrading the accuracy of positioning and navigation systems.
Kudela, K.; Bobik, P.
The recent progress in using cosmic ray measurements for space weather research is shortly summarized based mainly on selected papers published during past three years. Two problems are touched, namely (i) potential possibilities of the forecast of radiation hazard storms, and (ii) possibilities and limitations of using neutron monitors, muon telescopes and other experimental ground based devices for alerts before the geoeffective events, mainly geomagnetic storms.
Horne, Richard B.; Pitchford, David
The introduction of all-electric propulsion satellites is a game changer in the quest for low-cost access to space. It also raises new questions for satellite manufacturers, operators, and the insurance industry regarding the general risks and specifically the threat of adverse space weather. The issues surrounding this new concept were discussed by research scientists and up to 30 representatives from the space industry at a special meeting at the European Space Weather Week held in November 2014. Here we report on the discussions at that meeting. We show that for a satellite undergoing electric orbit raising for 200 days the radiation dose due to electrons is equivalent to approximately 6.7 year operation at geostationary orbit or approximately half the typical design life. We also show that electrons can be injected into the slot region (8000 km) where they pose a risk of satellite internal charging. The results highlight the importance of additional radiation protection. We also discuss the benefits, the operational considerations, the other risks from the Van Allen radiation belts, the new business opportunities for space insurance, and the need for space situation awareness in medium Earth orbit where electric orbit raising takes place.
Tokumitsu, Masahiro; Hasegawa, Keisuke; Ishida, Yoshiteru
This paper attempts to construct a resilient sensor network model with an example of space weather forecasting. The proposed model is based on a dynamic relational network. Space weather forecasting is vital for a satellite operation because an operational team needs to make a decision for providing its satellite service. The proposed model is resilient to failures of sensors or missing data due to the satellite operation. In the proposed model, the missing data of a sensor is interpolated by other sensors associated. This paper demonstrates two examples of space weather forecasting that involves the missing observations in some test cases. In these examples, the sensor network for space weather forecasting continues a diagnosis by replacing faulted sensors with virtual ones. The demonstrations showed that the proposed model is resilient against sensor failures due to suspension of hardware failures or technical reasons.
Tokumitsu, Masahiro; Hasegawa, Keisuke; Ishida, Yoshiteru
This paper attempts to construct a resilient sensor network model with an example of space weather forecasting. The proposed model is based on a dynamic relational network. Space weather forecasting is vital for a satellite operation because an operational team needs to make a decision for providing its satellite service. The proposed model is resilient to failures of sensors or missing data due to the satellite operation. In the proposed model, the missing data of a sensor is interpolated by other sensors associated. This paper demonstrates two examples of space weather forecasting that involves the missing observations in some test cases. In these examples, the sensor network for space weather forecasting continues a diagnosis by replacing faulted sensors with virtual ones. The demonstrations showed that the proposed model is resilient against sensor failures due to suspension of hardware failures or technical reasons. PMID:27092508
Romeo, G.; Barnes, R. J.; Weiss, M.; Fox, N. J.; Mauk, B.; Potter, M.; Kessel, R.
The Van Allen Probes Science Gateway acts as a centralized interface to the instrument Science Operation Centers (SOCs), provides mission planning tools, and hosts a number of science related activities such as the mission bibliography. Most importantly, the Gateway acts as the primary site for processing and delivering the VAP Space Weather data to users. Over the past year, the web-site has been completely redesigned with the focus on easier navigation and improvements of the existing tools such as the orbit plotter, position calculator and magnetic footprint tool. In addition, a new data plotting facility has been added. Based on HTML5, which allows users to interactively plot Van Allen Probes summary and space weather data. The user can tailor the tool to display exactly the plot they wish to see and then share this with other users via either a URL or by QR code. Various types of plots can be created, including simple time series, data plotted as a function of orbital location, and time versus L-Shell. We discuss the new Van Allen Probes Science Gateway and the Space Weather Data Pipeline.
Williamson, Samuel P.; Babcock, Michael R.; Bonadonna, Michael F.
The National Space Weather Program (NSWP; http://www.nswp.gov) is a U.S. federal government interagency program established by the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM) in 1995 to coordinate, collaborate, and leverage capabilities across stakeholder agencies, including space weather researchers, service providers, users, policy makers, and funding agencies, to improve the performance of the space weather enterprise for the United States and its international partners. Two important documents released in recent months have established a framework and the vision, goals, and strategy to move the enterprise forward in the next decade. The U.S. federal agency members of the NSWP include the departments of Commerce, Defense, Energy, Interior, State, and Transportation, plus NASA, the National Science Foundation, and observers from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The OFCM is also working with the Department of Homeland Security's Federal Emergency Management Agency to formally join the program.
Lyatsky, Wladislaw; Khazanov, George V.
For improving the reliability of Space Weather prediction, we developed a new, Polar Magnetic (PM) index of geomagnetic activity, which shows high correlation with both upstream solar wind data and related events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. Similarly to the existing polar cap PC index, the new PM index was computed from data from two near-pole geomagnetic observatories; however, the method for computing the PM index is different. The high correlation of the PM index with both solar wind data and events in Geospace environment makes possible to improve significantly forecasting geomagnetic disturbances and such important parameters as the cross-polar-cap voltage and global Joule heating, which play an important role in the development of geomagnetic, ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances. We tested the PM index for 10-year period (1995-2004). The correlation between PM index and upstream solar wind data for these years is very high (the average correlation coefficient R approximately equal to 0.86). The PM index also shows the high correlation with the cross-polar-cap voltage and hemispheric Joule heating (the correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values of these parameters approximately equal to 0.9), which results in significant increasing the prediction reliability of these parameters. Using the PM index of geomagnetic activity provides a significant increase in the forecasting reliability of geomagnetic disturbances and related events in Geospace environment. The PM index may be also used as an important input parameter in modeling ionospheric, magnetospheric, and thermospheric processes.
Schulte in den Bäumen, H.; Moran, D.; Lenzen, M.; Cairns, I.; Steenge, A.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) strong enough to create electromagnetic effects at latitudes below the auroral oval are frequent events that could soon have substantial impacts on electrical grids. Modern society's heavy reliance on these domestic and international networks increases our susceptibility to such a severe space weather event. Using a new high-resolution model of the global economy we simulate the economic impact of strong CMEs for 3 different planetary orientations. We account for the economic impacts within the countries directly affected as well as the post-disaster economic shock in partner economies linked by international trade. For a 1989 Quebec-like event the global economic impacts would range from USD 2.4 to 3.4 trillion over a year. Of this total economic shock about 50% would be felt in countries outside the zone of direct impact, leading to a loss in global GDP of 3.9 to 5.6%. The global economic damages are of the same order as wars, extreme financial crisis and estimated for future climate change.
Schulte in den Bäumen, H.; Moran, D.; Lenzen, M.; Cairns, I.; Steenge, A.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) strong enough to create electromagnetic effects at latitudes below the auroral oval are frequent events that could soon have substantial impacts on electrical grids. Modern society's heavy reliance on these domestic and international networks increases our susceptibility to such a severe space-weather event. Using a new high-resolution model of the global economy, we simulate the economic impact of strong CMEs for three different planetary orientations. We account for the economic impacts within the countries directly affected, as well as the post-disaster economic shock in partner economies linked by international trade. For a 1989 Quebec-like event, the global economic impacts would range from USD 2.4 to 3.4 trillion over a year. Of this total economic shock, about 50% would be felt in countries outside the zone of direct impact, leading to a loss in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 3.9 to 5.6%. The global economic damage is of the same order as wars, extreme financial crisis and estimated for future climate change.
Rosa, R.; Ramos, F.; Vijaykumar, N.; Andrade, M.; Fernandes, F.; Cecatto, J.; Sharma, A.; Sawant, H.
Yohkoh, SOHO and HESSI satellites have shown morphological change of the coronal magnetic structures in several scales. Particularly, the soft X ray images- have revealed the existence of dynamic structures with magnetic field configuration varying from regular to complex patterns. In order to characterize the spatio- temporal evolution of such structures, a methodology is proposed in terms of matrix computational operators to quantify the amount of symmetry breaking along the gradient field evolution of the sequence of images. Characterization of symmetry breaking in the gradient field of the energy envelope has been an useful tool to understand complex plasma regimes. In this paper we introduce the application of the Gradient Pattern Analysis (GPA) technique as a new matrix computational operator for spatio-temporal plasma gradient field analysis. This operator yields a measure of the symmetry breaking and phase disorder parameters responding to the active region plasma regimes. In order to characterize the GPA performance into the context of solar physics, we apply this technique on X-ray emission measurement from solar coronal plasma observed by means of Yohkoh satellite. The preliminary results and interpretations suggest a new phenomenological approach for the spatio- temporal evolution of soft X ray active regions, mainly those whose morphology- goes from a regular to a complex magnetic configuration a companied by thec increase of the dissipated energy. We discuss the importance of this semi-empirical modelling for space weather forecasting into the context of solar-terrestrial relationship.
Tokumitsu, Masahiro; Ishida, Yoshiteru
This paper proposes a space weather forecasting system at geostationary orbit for high-energy electron flux (>2 MeV). The forecasting model involves multiple sensors on multiple satellites. The sensors interconnect and evaluate each other to predict future conditions at geostationary orbit. The proposed forecasting model is constructed using a dynamic relational network for sensor diagnosis and event monitoring. The sensors of the proposed model are located at different positions in space. The satellites for solar monitoring equip with monitoring devices for the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind speed. The satellites orbit near the Earth monitoring high-energy electron flux. We investigate forecasting for typical two examples by comparing the performance of two models with different numbers of sensors. We demonstrate the prediction by the proposed model against coronal mass ejections and a coronal hole. This paper aims to investigate a possibility of space weather forecasting based on the satellite network with in-situ sensing. PMID:24803190
Chinese Meridian Project is a ground based space environment monitoring instrument network along 120 degree east meridian line, 30 degree latitude. The observation instruments include active and passive optical instruments: MST radars, Ionosphere digital sounders DSP-4, VHF Coherent Ionosphere Radar, Incoherent ionosphere radar, magnetometers, GPS receivers, and sounding rockets. The instrument network is now being extended to the north in Russian, to the south in Australia, and to the other side of the globe along 60 degree west. The new instrument chain is called the International Space Weather Meridian Circle Program (ISWMCP). NSSC is the leading institute of the program and has already reached agreements with many countries along this circle.
PSD) is plotted (using a color-coded scale) as a function of time and radial distance (R) or Drift Shell (L*), both in units of Earth Radii (1 Re...on the day side and night side of the Earth . This diurnal variation of the L* sampled by GOES is most readily seen in the Phase Space Density...Johnson, N.L. and McKnight, D.S., Artificial Space Debris, Orbit Book Company, Malabar, Florida, 1991. 2 Grun E. et al, Collisional Balance of the Meteoritic Complex, ICARUS, Vol. 62, 244-272, 1985.
with Harvard Smithsonian’s Center for Astrophysics , NASA/Ames, and other institutions. Our very active (more than 30 flights in four years) high...the Space Science and Engineering Laboratory is to educate students with the technical knowledge necessary to succeed in an aerospace career by
Varon, D.; Lovejoy, S.; Schertzer, D. J.
In a series of publications, we have shown that aircraft, satellite and in situ data as well as reanalyses and numerical weather models accurately follow the predictions of (stochastic) space-time multiplicative cascade models up to scales of ≈ 5000 km in space and ≈ 5 - 10 days in time. The space-time fluctuations are linked by typical advection speeds of about 1000 km/day. Assuming that the turbulent energy flux (ɛ) is dominant in the horizontal, and using the observed value ɛ ≈10**-3 W/Kg, this corresponds to advection by the largest (planetary scale) eddies (this value can be estimated quite accurately from first principles starting from solar energy inputs). The implied wide range horizontal scaling is possible because of the strong scaling anisotropy characterizing the stratification. Overall, these empirical 'weather regime' characteristics are well modeled by stochastic turbulence models developed over the last thirty years. It is therefore tempting to extend the cascades to much larger time scales. When this is done, the cascade model predicts that at scales beyond the 'weather regime' scale (≈ 10 days, the lifetime of planetary scale structures) there is a 'dimensional transition' due to the 'quenching' of the spatial degrees of freedom. This corresponds quantitatively and qualitatively to the basic empirical observation of a drastic change in the statistics of the state variables, and includes a reasonable estimate of the (scaling) statistics in the new lower frequency 'macroweather' regime. Whereas in the 'weather regime' fluctuations generally grow with scale, in 'macroweather', they typically diminish with scale. At scales beyond ≈ 30 yrs (highly variable from one geographical location and closer to ≈ 100 yrs in the pre-industrial epoch), fluctuations again start to increase with scale corresponding to the beginning of the climate regime. In order to model the entire weather-macroweather-climate process, we therefore propose to include a
A hundred years ago, the sun-Earth connection (the field of heliophysics research and space weather impacts) was of interest to only a small number of scientists. Solar activity had little effect on daily life. Today, a single strong solar flare could bring civilization to its knees. Modern society has come to depend on technologies sensitive to solar radiation and geomagnetic storms. Particularly vulnerable are intercontinental power grids, interplanetary robotic and human exploration, satellite operations and communications, and GPS navigation. These technologies are woven into the fabric of daily life, from health care and finance to basic utilities. Both short- and long-term forecasting models are urgently needed to mitigate the effects of solar storms and to anticipate their collective impact on aviation, astronaut safety, terrestrial climate and others. Even during a relatively weak solar maximum, the potential consequences that such events can have on society are too important to ignore. The challenges associated with space weather affect all developed and developing countries. Work on space weather specification, modeling, and forecasting has great societal benefit: It is basic research with a high public purpose. At present, we have a fleet “Heliophysics System Observatory” of dedicated spacecraft titled (e.g. SOHO, STEREO, SDO, ACE), and serendipitous resources contributing data for space weather modeling from both remote observations of the sun and in-situ measurements to provide sparse space weather situational awareness which were mostly built for a 2-3 year lifetime and are wearing out and won’t be around for very long. Missions currently in formulation will significantly enhance the capability of physics-based models that are used to understand and predict the impact of the variable sun. To enhance current models, and make them effective in predicting space weather throughout the solar system, we need a distributed network of spacecraft
Denardini, Clezio Marcos
We have developed a tool for measuring the evolutional stage of the space weather regional warning centers using the approach of the innovative evolution starting from the perspective presented by Figueiredo (2009, Innovation Management: Concepts, metrics and experiences of companies in Brazil. Publisher LTC, Rio de Janeiro - RJ). It is based on measuring the stock of technological skills needed to perform a certain task that is (or should) be part of the scope of a space weather center. It also addresses the technological capacity for innovation considering the accumulation of technological and learning capabilities, instead of the usual international indices like number of registered patents. Based on this definition, we have developed a model for measuring the capabilities of the Brazilian Study and Monitoring Program Space Weather (Embrace), a program of the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), which has gone through three national stages of development and an international validation step. This program was created in 2007 encompassing competence from five divisions of INPE in order to carry out the data collection and maintenance of the observing system in space weather; to model processes of the Sun-Earth system; to provide real-time information and to forecast space weather; and provide diagnostic their effects on different technological systems. In the present work, we considered the issues related to the innovation of micro-processes inherent to the nature of the Embrace program, not the macro-economic processes, despite recognizing the importance of these. During the development phase, the model was submitted to five scientists/managers from five different countries member of the International Space Environment Service (ISES) who presented their evaluations, concerns and suggestions. It was applied to the Embrace program through an interview form developed to be answered by professional members of regional warning centers. Based on the returning
the He-304 line. Our very active (more than 30 flights in four years) high altitude balloon project provides rapid turn-around flight experiences...talent. Program students have left Montana State University for jobs with NavSea, Orbital Sciences, Boeing, Tethers Unlimited, MicroSat Systems...and implementation GNC Sensors None Miniature low power magnetoresistive three axis magnetometer To qualify for space flight newly developed
Pacheco, Fernando A. L.; Van der Weijden, Cornelis H.
Many mountainous watersheds are conceived as aquifer media where multiple groundwater flow systems have developed (Tóth, 1963), and as bimodal landscapes where differential weathering of bare and soil-mantled rock has occurred (Wahrhaftig, 1965). The results of a weathering algorithm (Pacheco and Van der Weijden, 2012a, 2014), which integrates topographic, hydrologic, rock structure and chemical data to calculate weathering rates at the watershed scale, validated the conceptual models in the River Sordo basin, a small watershed located in the Marão cordillera (North of Portugal). The coupling of weathering, groundwater flow and landscape evolution analyses, as accomplished in this study, is innovative and represents a remarkable achievement towards regionalization of rock weathering at the watershed scale. The River Sordo basin occupies an area of approximately 51.2 km2 and was shaped on granite and metassediment terrains between the altitudes 185-1300 m. The groundwater flow system is composed of recharge areas located at elevations >700 m, identified on the basis of δ18O data. Discharge cells comprehend terminations of local, intermediate and regional flow systems, identified on the basis of spring density patterns, infiltration depth estimates based on 87Sr/86Sr data, and spatial distributions of groundwater pH and natural mineralization. Intermediate and regional flow systems, defined where infiltration depths >125 m, develop solely along the contact zone between granites and metassediments, because fractures in this region are profound and their density is very large. Weathering is accelerated where rocks are covered by thick soils, being five times faster relative to sectors of the basin where rocks are covered by thin soils. Differential weathering of bare and soil-mantled rock is also revealed by the spatial distribution of calculated aquifer hydraulic diffusivities and groundwater travel times.
Luntama, Juha-Pekka; Glover, Alexi; Hilgers, Alain
The ESA Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Preparatory Programme was started in 2009. The objective of the programme is to support the European independent utilisation of and access to space. The first phase of the ESA SSA system development will be finished in 2012 and the next phase is foreseen to be started after the ESA Ministerial Council meeting in November 2012. The definition of measurement requirements for the Space Weather Segment (SWE) of the ESA SSA system has been based on the space weather service requirements defined the by expected users of the system. This document, SSA SWE Customer Requirements Document (CRD), has been defined in a iterative process together with the members of the SSA User Representative Group (URG) and the delegates representing the European states participating the programme. Based on the SWE CRD, ESA with the support of the European industry has produced two documents: SSA SWE System Requirements Document (SRD) and SSA SWE Product Specification (PS). SWE PS contains the requirements for the measurements data required by the SSA SWE system. The SWE PS document has been recently rigorously reviewed by the SSA URG in the framework of the SSA System Requirements Review (SRR). The support provided by the Steering Board of the ESA Space Weather Working Team (SWWT) in this review was extremely useful. The members of the SWWT SB representing the scientific community and the provisional service providers were able to give very detailed comments regarding the measurement requirements for accuracy, cadence, timeliness, etc. As these parameters will be provisional design and cost drivers for the ESA SSA system, definition of the appropriate values at this point in the programme is crucial. This paper provides an overview of the measurement requirements for the SWE Segment of the ESA SSA Programme. The paper discusses the requirement definition process, the customer and service provider inputs, and the critical requirements as they have
The Space Environment Research Center (SERC), Kyushu University, is currently deploying a new ground-based magnetometer network of MAGnetic Data Acqusition System (MAGDAS), in cooperation with about 30 organizations in the world, in order to understand the complex Sun-Earth system for space weather research and application. SERC will conducts MAGDAS observation at 50 stations in the Circum-pan Pacific Magnetometer Network (CPMN) region, and FM-CW radar observation along the 210 deg. magnetic meridian (MM) during the IHY/ILWS/CAWSES periods. This project is actively providing the following space weather monitoring:(1) Global 3-dimensional current system to know electromagnetic coupling of the region 1 and 2 field-aligned currents, auroral electrojet current, Sq current, and equatorial electrojet current. (2) Plasma mass density along the 210 deg. MM to understand plasma environment change during space storms. (3) Ionospheric electric field intensity with 10-sec sampling at L = 1.26 to understand how the external electric field penetrates into the equatorial ionosphere.
Canada is a region ideally suited for the study of space weather: The north magnetic pole is encompassed within its territory, and the auroral oval traverses its vast landmass from east to west. Magnetic field lines link the country directly to the outer magnetosphere. In light of this geographic suitability, it has been a Canadian tradition to install ground monitors to remotely sense the space above Canadian territory. The beginning of this tradition dates back to 1840, when Edward Sabine, a key figure in the “magnetic crusade” to establish magnetic observatories throughout the British Empire in the nineteenth century, founded the first Canadian magnetic observatory on what is now the campus of the University of Toronto, 27 years before the birth of Canada. This observatory, which later became the Toronto Magnetic and Meteorological Observatory, marked the beginning of the Canadian heritage of installing magnetic stations and other ground instruments in the years to come. This extensive network of ground-based measurement devices, coupled with space-based measurements in more modern times, has enabled Canadian researchers to contribute significantly to studies related to space weather.
The solar activity drives the space weather on short-terms and the space climate on long-terms. Being close to the auroral oval has made Swedish electrical systems particularly vulnerable to space weather. Requirements for long-term planning of energy production has now also created an interest in space climate. A short description of the Swedish power system and pipeline system is given. A historical description of the effects that occurred at times of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), up to the Halloween events in 2003 and event in November 2004, is presented. All these events have created great knowledge about the effects within the Swedish power industry and an interest to collaborate with scientists in order to understand the solar causes of GICs and herewith possibly forecast the effects of GICs. An ESA GIC Pilot Project is in progress together with the Swedish power organization ELFORSK and FMI. The goal is to implement real-time accurate forecasts of GICs in order to mitigate the effects.
The solar activity drives the space weather on short-terms and the space climate on long-terms. Being close to the auroral oval has made Swedish electrical systems particularly vulnerable to space weather. Requirements for long-term planning of energy production has now also created an interest in space climate. A short description of the Swedish power system and pipeline system will be given. A historical description of the effects that occurred at times of of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), up to the most recent during the Halloween events in 2003, will be presented. All these events have created great knowledge about the effects within the Swedish power industry and an interest to collaborate with scientists in order to understand the solar causes of GICs and possibly forecast the effects of GICs. An ESA GIC Pilot Project is in progress together with the Swedish power organization ELFORSK and FMI. The goal is to implement real-time accurate forecasts of GICs in order to mitigate the effects.
Marchi, S.; Lazzarin, M.; Magrin, S.; De Sanctis, M. C. E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org E-mail: email@example.com
The majority of basaltic asteroids are found in the inner main belt, although a few have also been observed in the outer main belt and near-Earth space. These asteroids-referred to as V-types-have surface compositions that resemble that of the 530 km sized asteroid Vesta. Besides the compositional similarity, dynamical evidence also links many V-type asteroids to Vesta. Moreover, Vesta is one of the few asteroids to have been identified as source of specific classes of meteorites, the howardite, eucrite, and diogenite achondrites (HEDs). Despite the general consensus on the outlined scenario, several questions remain unresolved. In particular, it is not clear if the observed spectral diversity among Vesta, V-types, and HEDs is due to space weathering, as is thought to be the case for S-type asteroids. In this Letter, SDSS photometry is used to address the question of whether the spectral diversity among candidate V-types and HEDs can be explained by space weathering. We show that visible spectral slopes of V-types are systematically redder with respect to HEDs, in a similar way to what is found for ordinary chondrite meteorites and S-types. On the assumption that space weathering is responsible for the slope mismatch, we estimated an upper limit for the reddening timescale of about 0.5 Ga. Nevertheless, the observed slope mismatch between HEDs and V-types poses several puzzles to understanding its origin. The implication of our findings is also discussed in light of the Dawn mission to Vesta.
Pankratius, V.; Lind, F. D.; Coster, A. J.; Erickson, P. J.; Semeter, J. L.
Analysis of Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) signals has led to revolutionary new data products for space weather monitoring and ionospheric research. However, the current sensor network is sparse, especially over the oceans and in regions like Africa and Siberia, and the full potential of dense, global, real-time TEC monitoring remains to be realized. The Mahali project will prototype a revolutionary architecture that uses mobile devices, such as phones and tablets, to form a global space weather monitoring network. Mahali exploits the existing GPS infrastructure - more specifically, delays in multi-frequency GPS signals observed at the ground - to acquire a vast set of global TEC projections, with the goal of imaging multi-scale variability in the global ionosphere at unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. With connectivity available worldwide, mobile devices are excellent candidates to establish crowd sourced global relays that feed multi-frequency GPS sensor data into a cloud processing environment. Once the data is within the cloud, it is relatively straightforward to reconstruct the structure of the space environment, and its dynamic changes. This vision is made possible owing to advances in multicore technology that have transformed mobile devices into parallel computers with several processors on a chip. For example, local data can be pre-processed, validated with other sensors nearby, and aggregated when transmission is temporarily unavailable. Intelligent devices can also autonomously decide the most practical way of transmitting data with in any given context, e.g., over cell networks or Wifi, depending on availability, bandwidth, cost, energy usage, and other constraints. In the long run, Mahali facilitates data collection from remote locations such as deserts or on oceans. For example, mobile devices on ships could collect time-tagged measurements that are transmitted at a later point in
Nanosatellites are changing the paradigm of space exploration and engineering. The past 15 years have seen a growing activity in this field, with a marked acceleration in the last 3 years. Whereas the educational value of nanosatellites is well recognized, their scientific and technological use is potentially extremely rich but not fully explored. Conventional attitudes towards space engineering need to be reviewed in light of the capabilities and characteristics of these miniature devices that enable approaches and applications not possible with traditional satellite platforms. After an evaluation of the past and near future nanosatellites missions in the domain of space weather and from the example of the Zegrensat/ATISE mission, we will give some perspectives on the possibilities opened by these small satellites.
Pérez-Suárez, David; Higgins, Paul A.; Bloomfield, D. Shaun; McAteer, R. T. James; Krista, Larisza D.; Byrne, Jason P.; Gallagher, Peter. T.
The solar surface and atmosphere are highly dynamic plasma environments, which evolve over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Large-scale eruptions, such as coronal mass ejections, can be accelerated to millions of kilometres per hour in a matter of minutes, making their automated detection and characterisation challenging. Additionally, there are numerous faint solar features, such as coronal holes and coronal dimmings, which are important for space weather monitoring and forecasting, but their low intensity and sometimes transient nature makes them problematic to detect using traditional image processing techniques. These difficulties are compounded by advances in ground- and space- based instrumentation, which have increased the volume of data that solar physicists are confronted with on a minute-by-minute basis; NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory for example is returning many thousands of images per hour (~1.5 TB/day). This chapter reviews recent advances in the application of images processing techniques to the automated detection of active regions, coronal holes, filaments, CMEs, and coronal dimmings for the purposes of space weather monitoring and prediction.
By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and greater than 30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst less than - 850 nT) occurring within the next decade is approximately 12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.
Hunter, Paul (Technical Monitor); Gombosi, Tamas I.
This is the final report of our NASA AISRP grant entitled 'High Performance Parallel Methods for Space Weather Simulations'. The main thrust of the proposal was to achieve significant progress towards new high-performance methods which would greatly accelerate global MHD simulations and eventually make it possible to develop first-principles based space weather simulations which run much faster than real time. We are pleased to report that with the help of this award we made major progress in this direction and developed the first parallel implicit global MHD code with adaptive mesh refinement. The main limitation of all earlier global space physics MHD codes was the explicit time stepping algorithm. Explicit time steps are limited by the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) condition, which essentially ensures that no information travels more than a cell size during a time step. This condition represents a non-linear penalty for highly resolved calculations, since finer grid resolution (and consequently smaller computational cells) not only results in more computational cells, but also in smaller time steps.
As the technology develops, the opportunity that the human beings behave in space, and it is still understood that the solar activities (especially the solar flare) influence the airlines communication, the ship communication and the power generator of the electric power company, etc. Forecasting the effects of the solar activities is becoming very important because there is such a background. Our goal is that constructs the detailed model from the Sun to the magnetosphere of the earth and simulates the solar activities and the effects. We try to integrate the existing observational data including the ground observational data and satellite observational data using by web service technology as a base to construct the model. We introduce our activity to combine the solar and space science data in Japan. Methods Generally, it is difficult to develop the virtual common database, but web service makes interconnection among different databases comparatively easy. We try to connect some databases in the portal site. Each different data objects is aggregated to a common data object. We can develop more complex services. We use RELAX NG in order to develop these applications easily. We begin the trial of the interconnection among the solar and space science data in Japan. In the case of solar observational data, we find the activity such as VO, for example, VSO and EGSO, but space science data seems to be very complex. In addition to this, there is time lag that solar activity has an effect on the magnetosphere of the Earth. We discuss these characteristic in the data analysis between the solar and space data. This work was supported by the Grant-in-Aid for Creative Scientific Research `The Basic Study of Space Weather Prediction' (17GS0208) from the Ministry of Education, Science, Sports, Technology, and Culture of Japan
Krista, Larisza; Gallagher, P.
As solar activity is the foremost important aspect of space weather, the forecasting of flare and CME related transient geomagnetic storms has become a primary initiative. Minor magnetic storms caused by coronal holes (CHs) have also proven to be important due to their long-lasting and recurrent geomagnetic effects. In order to forecast CH related geomagnetic storms, the author developed the Coronal Hole Automated Recognition and Monitoring (CHARM) algorithm to replace the user-dependent CH detection methods commonly used. CHARM uses an intensity thresholding method to identify low intensity regions in EUV or X-ray images. Since CHs are regions of "open” magnetic field and predominant polarity, magnetograms were used to differentiate CHs from other low intensity regions. The Coronal Hole Evolution (CHEVOL) algorithm was developed and used in conjunction with CHARM to study the boundary evolution of CHs. It is widely accepted that the short-term changes in CH boundaries are due to the interchange reconnection between the CH open field lines and small loops. We determined the magnetic reconnection rate and the diffusion coefficient at CH boundaries in order to test the interchange reconnection model. The author also developed the Minor Storm (MIST) package to link CHs to high-speed solar wind (HSSW) periods detected at Earth. Using the algorithm the relationship between CHs, the corresponding HSSW properties, and geomagnetic indices were studied between 2000-2009. The results showed a strong correlation between the velocity and HSSW proton plasma temperature, which indicates that the heating and acceleration of the solar wind plasma in CHs are closely related, and perhaps caused by the same mechanism. The research presented here includes analysis of CHs on small and large spatial/temporal scales, allowing us to further our understanding of CHs as a whole.
SaintCyr, Chris; Murtagh, Bill
"Space weather" is a term coined almost 15 years ago to describe environmental conditions ABOVE Earth's atmosphere that affect satellites and astronauts. As society has become more dependent on technology, we nave found that space weather conditions increasingly affect numerous commercial and infrastructure sectors: airline operations, the precision positioning industry, and the electric power grid, to name a few. Similar to meteorology where "weather" often refers to severe conditions, "space weather" includes geomagnetic storms, radiation storms, and radio blackouts. But almost all space weather conditions begin at the Sun--our middle-age, magnetically-variable star. At NASA, the science behind space weather takes place in the Heliophysics Division. The Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, is manned jointly by NCAA and US Air Force personnel, and it provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth. Organizationally, it resides in NOAA's National Weather Service as one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. In this seminar we hope to give the audience a brief introduction to the causes of space weather, discuss some of the effects, and describe the state of the art in forecasting. Our goal is to highlight that meteorologists are increasingly becoming the "first responders" to questions about space weather causes and effects.
Pieters, Carle M.; Blewett, David T.; Gaffey, Michael; Mittlefehldt, David W.; CristinaDeSanctis, Maria; Reddy, Vishnu; Coradini, Angioletta; Nathues, Andreas; Denevi, Brett W.; Li, Jian-Yang; McCord, Thomas B.; Marchi, Simone; Palmer, Eric E.; Sunshine, Jessica M.; Filacchione, Gianrico; Ammannito, Eleonora; Raymond, Carol A.; Russell, Christopher T.
As NASA s Dawn spacecraft explores the surface of Vesta, it has become abundantly clear that Vesta is like no other planetary body visited to date. Dawn is collecting global data at increasingly higher spatial resolution during its one-year orbital mission. The bulk properties of Vesta have previously been linked to the HED meteorites through remote mineral characterization of its surface from Earth-based spectroscopy. A principal puzzle has been why Vesta exhibits relatively unweathered diagnostic optical features compared to other large asteroids. Is this due to the composition of this proto-planet or the space environment at Vesta? Alteration or weathering of materials in space normally develops as the products of several processes accumulate on the surface or in an evolving particulate regolith, transforming the bedrock into fragmental material with properties that may be measurably different from the original. Data from Dawn reveal that the regolith of Vesta is exceptionally diverse. Regional surface units are observed that have not been erased by weathering with time. Several morphologically-fresh craters have excavated bright, mafic-rich materials and exhibit bright ray systems. Some of the larger craters have surrounding subdued regions (often asymmetric) that are lower in albedo and relatively red-sloped in the visible while exhibiting weaker mafic signatures. Several other prominent craters have rim exposures containing very dark material and/or display a system of prominent dark rays. Most, but not all, dark areas associated with craters exhibit significantly lower spectral contrast, suggesting that either a Vesta lithology with an opaque component has been exposed locally or that the surface has been contaminated by a relatively dark impactor. Similarly, most, but not all, bright areas associated with craters exhibit enhanced mafic signatures compared to surroundings. On a regional scale, the large south polar structure and surrounding terrain exhibit
Mcintosh, S. W.
In 2015 the High Altitude Observatory (HAO) celbrates its 75th anniversary. From the early years of the observatory at Cimax Pass to the current facility at the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory [MLSO] we will highlight the techniques and methodologies developed to monitor solar actiity and its evolition. In the coming years we hope to develop a new community facility - COSMO - to push space weather montioring into the data assimilation age. We will provide an overview of the requirements and capbiliites of the COSMO facility.
Corbard, T.; Malherbe, J.-M.; Crussaire, D.; Morand, F.; Ruty, F.; Biree, L.; Aboudarham, J.; Fuller, N.; Renaud, C.; Meftah, M.
METEOSPACE is a new partnership project between the Paris Observatory (OP), the Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur (OCA), the French Air Force and a service company (LUNA technology) for the development and operation of a set of small telescopes Hα / Ca II K / Ca II H / G band to be installed at on the Calern plateau (OCA). The objective is to monitor solar activity for both research and its applications in space weather through continuous optical observations of the dynamic phenomena that are visible in the chromosphere: eruptions, destabilization of the filaments triggering coronal mass ejections and associated Moreton waves.
Ruth, Amy, Ed.
This theme issue of "The Goldfinch" focuses on weather in Iowa and weather lore. The bulletin contains historical articles, fiction, activities, and maps. The table of contents lists: (1) "Wild Rosie's Map"; (2) "History Mystery"; (3) "Iowa's Weather History"; (4) "Weather Wonders"; (6)…
Today's world is more vulnerable to space weather due to ever increased advance and costly space technology deployed in space and on ground. The space weather has a natural potential of posing harmful effects on space and ground based assets and on astronaut's life. This global challenge of space weather essentially demands global and regional preparedness to develop its situational awareness, analyzing risks and devise possible mitigation procedures. Considering risk mitigation architecture as inevitable for all scientific missions, this paper focuses to develop a risk assessment architecture for the space environment and to map its utility in identifying and analyzing potential risks to space and ground based assets from space weather in the South Asia region. Different risk assessment tools will be studied and would conclude in the most effective tool or strategy that may help to develop our capability in identifying, protecting and mitigating from the devastating effects of the space weather.
Longmier, B.; Henriquez, E.; Bering, E. A.; Slagle, E.
Educator Academy is a K-12 STEM curriculum developed by the STEM K-12 Outreach Committee of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA). Consisting of three independent curriculum modules, K-12 students participate in inquiry-based science and engineering challenges to improve critical thinking skills and enhance problem solving skills. The Space Weather Balloon Curriculum Module is designed for students in grades 9-12. Throughout this module, students learn and refine physics concepts as well as experimental research skills. Students participate in project-based learning that is experimental in nature. Students are engaged with the world around them as they collaborate to launch a high altitude balloon equipped with HD cameras.The program leaders launch high altitude weather balloons in collaboration with schools and students to teach physics concepts, experimental research skills, and to make space exploration accessible to students. A weather balloon lifts a specially designed payload package that is composed of HD cameras, GPS tracking devices, and other science equipment. The payload is constructed and attached to the balloon by the students with low-cost materials. The balloon and payload are launched with FAA clearance from a site chosen based on wind patterns and predicted landing locations. The balloon ascends over 2 hours to a maximum altitude of 100,000 feet where it bursts and allows the payload to slowly descend using a built-in parachute. The payload is located using the GPS device. In April 2012, the Space Weather Balloon team conducted a prototype field campaign near Fairbanks Alaska, sending several student-built experiments to an altitude of 30km, underneath several strong auroral displays. To better assist teachers in implementing one or more of these Curriculum Modules, teacher workshops are held to give teachers a hands-on look at how this curriculum is used in the classroom. And, to provide further support, teachers are each
MacNeice, Peter; Heese, Michael; Kunetsova, Maria; Maddox, Marlo; Rastaetter, Lutz; Berrios, David; Pulkkinen, Antti
Researching and forecasting the ever changing space environment (often referred to as space weather) and its influence on humans and their activities are model-intensive disciplines. This is true because the physical processes involved are complex, but, in contrast to terrestrial weather, the supporting observations are typically sparse. Models play a vital role in establishing a physically meaningful context for interpreting limited observations, testing theory, and producing both nowcasts and forecasts. For example, with accurate forecasting of hazardous space weather conditions, spacecraft operators can place sensitive systems in safe modes, and power utilities can protect critical network components from damage caused by large currents induced in transmission lines by geomagnetic storms.
Li, X.; Palo, S. E.; Turner, D. L.; Gerhardt, D.; Redick, T.; Tao, J.
Energetic particles, electrons and protons either directly associated with solar flares or trapped in the terrestrial radiation belt, have a profound space weather impact. A 3U CubeSat mission with a single instrument, Relativistic Electrons and Proton Telescope integrated little experiment (REPTile), is proposed to address fundamental questions relating to the relationship between solar flares and energetic particles and the acceleration and loss mechanism of outer radiation belt electrons. REPTile, in a highly inclined low earth orbit, will measure differential fluxes of relativistic electrons in the energy range of 0.5-3.5 MeV and protons in 10-40 MeV. This project is a collaborative effort between the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics and the Department of Aerospace Engineering Sciences at the University of Colorado, which includes the integration of students, faculty, and professional engineers.
Cohen, C. M.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Mason, G. M.; Vourlidas, A.
When coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are fast and massive enough they can generate interplanetary shocks that accelerate particles to tens or hundreds of MeV/nucleon. These solar energetic particle (SEP) events are a space weather hazard to astronauts and sensitive space-based equipment. If the CME is directed towards Earth and impacts the magnetosphere it can trigger a geomagnetic storm, resulting in a variety of detrimental effects on communication systems and power grids. Although to date, solar cycle 24 has not produced many large-fluence SEP events nor many geoeffective CMEs, we will compare the activity experienced so far to the most significant events of cycle 23. Possible implications for the remainder of the cycle will also be discussed.
Solar cycle 23 witnessed an unprecedented array of space- and ground-based instruments observing the violent eruptions from the Sun that had huge impact on the heliosphere. It was possible to characterize corona) mass ejections (CMEs) that cause extreme solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms, the two aspects that concern the space weather community. In this paper I discuss the special populations of CMEs that have significant interplanetary consequences: shock-driving CMEs identified based on their association with type 11 radio bursts and in-situ shocks, SEP-producing CMEs, and geoeffective CMEs (those that produce geomagnetic storms). I discuss the kinematic and solar-source properties of these populations and how they vary with the solar activity cycle. I also compare their properties with the general population of CMEs, so one can recognize when and where these events occur on the Sun.
A well-timed congressional hearing, coming in the midst of fierce geomagnetic storms, could help to restore funding to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Environment Center (SEC).The center, which is the nation's official source of space weather alerts and warnings, currently is funded at $5.24 million for fiscal year 2003. That amount is $2 million less than it received the previous year. The Bush Administration has requested $8.02 million in funding. The appropriations bill, for the departments of Commerce, Justice, and State for fiscal year 2004, passed on 23 July by the House of Representatives, calls for funding the SEC at the $5.29 million level.
Akioka, M.; Miyake, W.; Nagatsuma, T.; Ohtaka, K.; Kimura, S.; Goka, T.; Matsumoto, H.; Koshiishi, H.
The SmartSat Program is a collaborative program of government agency (NICT,JAXA) and private sector (MHI) in Japan to develop small satellite about 200 Kg. The space weather experiment of the SmartSat consists of Wide Field CME Imager (WCI), Space Environment Data Acquisition Equipment (SEDA), and mission processor (MP). Both of the instruments will be principal components of the L5 mission. WCI is a imager to track CME as far as earth orbit. CME brightness near earth orbit is expected 1E-15 solar brightness or 1/200 of zodiacal light brightness. To observe such a extreme faint target, we are developing wide field of view camera with very high sensitivity and large dynamic range. These highly challenging experiment and demonstration will be implemented in SmartSat program.
Du, D.; Xu, W. Y.; Zhao, M. X.; Chen, B.; Lu, J. Y.; Yang, G. L.
There is an ongoing demand for real-time geomagnetic indices in space services. The traditional 3 h K index and K-derived planetary indices cannot issue alters promptly during large storms, and the 3 h interval is much larger than the time scales of ionospheric responses. To overcome these difficulties, we define a new consecutive and linear geomagnetic activity index, the range of hourly H component index (rH) with 1 min resolution, and develop a local rH index nowcast system for space weather operation, which can issue geomagnetic storm alerts quickly. We also derive Kp/Ap indices conveniently from a single station data to describe the global geomagnetic activity. Then we make a statistic comparison between rH and other definite index values during storm and find that rH is sensitive to the geomagnetic disturbance and can reflect the geomagnetic activity more delicately.
Pieters, C. M.; Blewett, D. T.; Gaffey, M.; Mittlefehldt, D. W.; De Sanctis, M. C.; Reddy, V.; Nathues, A.; Denevi, B. W.; Li, J. Y.; McCord, T. B.; Marchi, S.; Palmer, E. E.; Sunshine, J. M.; Ammannito, E.; Raymond, C. A.; Russell, C. T.
The bulk properties of Vesta have previously been linked directly to the howardite, eucrite, and diogenite (HED) meteorites through remote mineral characterization of its surface from Earth-based spectroscopy [e.g., 1]. A long-standing enigma has been why does Vesta s surface appear to have suffered so little alteration from the space environment, whereas materials exposed on the Moon and some S-type asteroids are significantly changed (grains develop rims containing nano-phase opaques [e.g. 2]). The Dawn spacecraft is well suited to address this issue and is half through its extended mapping phase of this remarkable proto-planet . On a local scale Dawn sees evidence of recent exposures at craters, but distinctive surface materials blend into background at older craters. The presence of space weathering processes are thus evident at Vesta, but the character and form are controlled by the unique environment and geologic history of this small body.
Manoharan, P. K.; Subrahmanya, C. R.; Chengalur, J. N.
In this paper, we review the results of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations made with the legacy system of the Ooty Radio Telescope (ORT) and compare them with the possibilities opened by the upgraded ORT, the Ooty Wide Field Array (OWFA). The stability and the sensitivity of the legacy system of ORT allowed the regular monitoring of IPS on a grid of large number of radio sources and the results of these studies have been useful to understand the physical processes in the heliosphere and space weather events, such as coronal mass ejections, interaction regions and their propagation effects. In the case of OWFA, its wide bandwidth of 38 MHz, the large field-of-view of 27° and increased sensitivity provide a unique capability for the heliospheric science at 326.5 MHz. IPS observations with the OWFA would allow one to monitor more than 5000 sources per day. This, in turn, will lead to much improved studies of space weather events and solar wind plasma, overcoming the limitations faced with the legacy system. We also highlight some of the specific aspects of the OWFA, potentially relevant for the studies of coronal plasma and its turbulence characteristics.
Mannucci, A. J.; Schwadron, N.; Antiochos, S. K.; Bhattacharjee, A.; Bisi, M. M.; Gopalswamy, N.; Kamalabadi, F.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Tobiska, W. K.; Weimer, D. R.; Withers, P.
NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) program has contributed a wealth of scientific knowledge that is relevant to space weather and user needs. A targeted approach to science questions has resulted in leveraging new scientific knowledge to improve not only our understanding of the Heliophysics domain, but also to develop predictive capabilities in key areas of LWS science. This fascinating interplay between science and applications promises to benefit both domains. Scientists providing feedback to the LWS program are now discussing an evolution of the targeted approach that explicitly considers how new science improves, or enables, predictive capability directly. Long-term program goals are termed "Strategic Science Areas" (SSAs) that address predictive capabilities in six specific areas: geomagnetically induced currents, satellite drag, solar energetic particles, ionospheric total electron content, radio frequency scintillation induced by the ionosphere, and the radiation environment. SSAs are organized around user needs and the impacts of space weather on society. Scientists involved in the LWS program identify targeted areas of research that reference (or bear upon) societal needs. Such targeted science leads to new discoveries and is one of the valid forms of exploration. In this talk we describe the benefits of targeted science, and how addressing societal impacts in an appropriate way maintains the strong science focus of LWS, while also leading to its broader impacts.
Kontogiannis, Ioannis; Belehaki, Anna; Tsiropoula, Georgia; Tsagouri, Ioanna; Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Papaioannou, Athanasios
The PROTEAS project has been initiated at the Institute of Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing (IAASARS) of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA). One of its main objectives is to provide observations, processed data and space weather nowcasting and forecasting products, designed to support the space weather research community and operators of commercial and industrial systems. The space weather products to be released by this facility, will be the result of the exploitation of ground-based, as well as space-borne observations and of model results and tools already available or under development by IAASARS researchers. The objective will be achieved through: (a) the operation of a small full-disk solar telescope to conduct regular observations of the Sun in the H-alpha line; (b) the construction of a database with near real-time solar observations which will be available to the community through a web-based facility (HELIOSERVER); (c) the development of a tool for forecasting Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events in relation to observed solar eruptive events; (d) the upgrade of the Athens Digisonde with digital transceivers and the capability of operating in bi-static link mode and (e) the sustainable operation of the European Digital Upper Atmosphere Server (DIAS) upgraded with additional data sets integrated in an interface with the HELIOSERVER and with improved models for the real-time quantification of the effects of solar eruptive events in the ionosphere.
Joseph, Joachim H.; Cahalan, Robert F.
Histograms of nearest neighbor spacings of fair weather cumulus at 15 locations over the world's oceans are presented based on the analysis of high resolution Landsat 3 Multispectral Scanner images for amounts of cloud cover ranging from 0.6 to 37.6 percent. These histograms are found to be essentially the same at all locations analyzed, similarly to previous findings on the size distributions and the fractal dimensions of the perimeters for this cloud type. The nearest neighbor spacings are linearly dependent on the effective cloud radii, with a proportionality factor ranging from five to twenty. The histograms peak at about 0.5 km. Nearest-neighbor spacings smaller than about a kilometer, associated with cumulus clouds with an effective radius less than a few hundred meters, have a distribution of cloud centers that is almost indepedent in the horizontal plane and show a tendency for the formation of clumps. Larger spacings of up to thirty kilometers occur and are associated with the larger clouds. These latter spacings are not independent.
Coffey, Victoria N.; Blackwell, William C.; Minow, Joseph I.; Bruce, Margaret B.; Howard, James W.
NASA's Constellation program, initiated to fulfill the Vision for Space Exploration, will create a new generation of vehicles for servicing low Earth orbit, the Moon, and beyond. Space radiation specifications for space system hardware are necessarily conservative to assure system robustness for a wide range of space environments. Spectral models of solar particle events and trapped radiation belt environments are used to develop the design requirements for estimating total ionizing radiation dose, displacement damage, and single event effects for Constellation hardware. We first describe the rationale using the spectra chosen to establish the total dose and single event design environmental specifications for Constellation systems. We then compare variability of the space environment to the spectral design models to evaluate their applicability as conservative design environments and potential vulnerabilities to extreme space weather events
Loto'aniu, Paul; Rodriguez, Juan; Machol, Janet; Kress, Brian; Darnel, Jonathan; Redmon, Robert; Rowland, William; Seation, Daniel; Tilton, Margaret; Denig, William
Since their inception in the 1970s, the GOES satellites have monitored the sources of space weather on the sun and the effects of space weather at Earth. The space weather instruments on GOES-R will monitor: solar X-rays, UV light, solar energetic particles, magnetospheric energetic particles, galactic cosmic rays, and Earth's magnetic field. These measurements are important for providing alerts and warnings to many customers, including satellite operators, the power utilities, and NASA's human activities in space. This presentation reviews the capabilities of the GOES-R space weather instruments and describes the space weather Level 2+ products that are being developed for GOES-R. These new and continuing data products will be an integral part of NOAA space weather operations in the GOES-R era.
An enduring mystery since Apollo is that, in spite of the Moon's lack of a global magnetic field, the surface is nevertheless dotted with regional magnetic fields strong enough to be detected from orbit. Did the Moon once have an intrinsic global field that magnetized parts of the crust but has since decayed away? This is a question of fundamental importance to understanding the formation and evolution of solid planetary bodies, and yet it remains unanswered due in part to limitations in our knowledge of these crustal magnetic anomalies. Adding to the puzzle, many of these magnetic anomalies are accompanied by enigmatic optical features, known as swirls, which may hold the key to understanding "space weathering"---a process by which airless bodies change color over time due to exposure to solar wind and micrometeoroids. Here we show both that swirl morphology provides information about the structure of the underlying magnetic sources, and that the color of the lunar surface varies systematically with latitude in a way that allows us to distinguish between the effects of solar wind ion and micrometeoroid bombardment, addressing a decades-old problem in remote sensing, and aiding in the interpretation of the spectra of airless bodies throughout the solar system. The remarkable diversity of the outer solar system's satellites provides important clues about the formation and evolution of the solar system. Many of the satellites have surprisingly young surfaces, owing in some cases to on-going geologic activity. Moreover, the existence of subsurface oceans within some of the satellites raises the intriguing possibility of extant habitable environments in the outer solar system. Determining the properties of their ice shells and the structures of their deep interiors places fundamental constraints on how the icy satellites formed and evolved, and on what governs their behavior today. Using gravity and topography data from Cassini, we develop analytical models showing
Saba, Tanzila; Rehman, Amjad; AlGhamdi, Jarallah S.
Making deductions and expectations about climate has been a challenge all through mankind's history. Challenges with exact meteorological directions assist to foresee and handle problems well in time. Different strategies have been investigated using various machine learning techniques in reported forecasting systems. Current research investigates climate as a major challenge for machine information mining and deduction. Accordingly, this paper presents a hybrid neural model (MLP and RBF) to enhance the accuracy of weather forecasting. Proposed hybrid model ensure precise forecasting due to the specialty of climate anticipating frameworks. The study concentrates on the data representing Saudi Arabia weather forecasting. The main input features employed to train individual and hybrid neural networks that include average dew point, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, average relative moistness, precipitation, normal wind speed, high wind speed and average cloudiness. The output layer composed of two neurons to represent rainy and dry weathers. Moreover, trial and error approach is adopted to select an appropriate number of inputs to the hybrid neural network. Correlation coefficient, RMSE and scatter index are the standard yard sticks adopted for forecast accuracy measurement. On individual standing MLP forecasting results are better than RBF, however, the proposed simplified hybrid neural model comes out with better forecasting accuracy as compared to both individual networks. Additionally, results are better than reported in the state of art, using a simple neural structure that reduces training time and complexity.
Whitney, Chad M.; Johnson, Erik B.; Chen, Xiao Jie; Stapels, Christopher; Vogel, Sam; Christian, James
Electronics used for space applications (e.g. communication satellites) are susceptible to space weather, primarily consisting of electrons and protons. As more critical equipment is used in space, a comprehensive monitoring network is needed to mitigate risks associated with radiation damage. Compact detectors suited for this requirement have been too complicated or do not provide sufficient information. As the damage from electrons (e.g. total ionizing dose effects) is significantly different compared to protons (e.g. displacement damage effects), monitors that can provide unique measurements of the dose and/or spectral information for electrons and protons separately are necessary for mission assessment to determine strategies for maintaining function. Previously, we demonstrated that the Proton-Electron Discrimination Detector (PEDD) is space-compatible and can discriminate fast electrons from protons using a diphenylanthrecene (DPA) scintillator coupled to a CMOS silicon photomultiplier (SiPM). The SiPM has a temperature dependence, and a circuit has been developed to provide a stable response as a function of temperature. The PEDD detector is scheduled to participate on the RHEME experiment to be flown on the ISS, scheduled for launch in 2016.
Cooper, John F.
The Direct Space Weathering Project of NASA's Outer Planets Research Program addresses specification of the plasma and energetic particle environments for irradiation and surface chemical processing of icy bodies in the outer solar system and the local interstellar medium. Knowledge of the radiation environments is being expanded by ongoing penetration of the twin Voyager spacecraft into the heliosheath boundary region of the outer heliosphere and expected emergence within the next decade into the very local interstellar medium. The Voyager measurements are being supplemented by remote sensing from Earth orbit of energetic neutral atom emission from this boundary region by NASA's Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX). Although the Voyagers long ago passed the region of the Classical Kuiper Belt, the New Horizons spacecraft will encounter Pluto in 2015 and thereafter explore one or more KBOs, meanwhile providing updated measurements of the heliospheric radiation environment in this region. Modeling of ion transport within the heliosphere allows specification of time-integrated irradiation effects while the combination of Voyager and IBEX data supports projection of the in-situ measurements into interstellar space beyond the heliosheath. Transformation of model ion flux distributions into surface sputtering and volume ionization profiles provides a multi-layer perspective for space weathering impact on the affected icy bodies and may account for some aspects of color and compositional diversity. Other important related factors may include surface erosion and gardening by meteoritic impacts and surface renewal by cryovolcanism. Chemical products of space weathering may contribute to energy resources for the latter.
Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Daglis, Ioannis A.; Balasis, George; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Tsaoussidis, Vassilios; Diamantopoulos, Sotirios
Data sharing and access are major issues in space sciences, as they influence the degree of data exploitation. The availability of multi-spacecraft distributed observation methods and adaptive mission architectures require computationally intensive analysis methods. Moreover, accurate space weather forecasting and future space exploration far from Earth will be in need of real-time data distribution and assimilation technologies. The FP7-Space collaborative research project "Space-Data Routers" (SDR) relies on space internetworking and in particular on Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN), which marks the new era in space communications. SDR unifies space and earth communication infrastructures and delivers a set of tools and protocols for space-data exploitation. The main goal is to allow space agencies, academic institutes and research centers to share space-data generated by single or multiple missions, in an efficient, secure and automated manner. Here we are presenting the architecture and basic functionality of a DTN-based application specifically designed in the framework of the SDR project, for data query, retrieval and administration that will enable addressing outstanding science questions related to space weather, through the provision of simultaneous real-time data sampling at multiple points in space. The work leading to this paper has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-SPACE-2010-1) under grant agreement no. 263330 for the SDR (Space-Data Routers for Exploiting Space Data) collaborative research project. This paper reflects only the authors' views and the Union is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.
Keller, L. P.; Berger, E. L.; Christoffersen, R.
Space weathering processes such as solar wind ion irradiation and micrometeorite impacts are widely known to alter the properties of regolith materials exposed on airless bodies. The rates of space weathering processes however, are poorly constrained for asteroid regoliths, with recent estimates ranging over many orders of magnitude. The return of surface samples by JAXA's Hayabusa mission to asteroid 25143 Itokawa, and their laboratory analysis provides "ground truth" to anchor the timescales for space weathering processes on airless bodies.
Breus, T. K.; Ozheredov, V. A.; Syutkina, E. V.; Rogoza, A. N.
Space weather hazards have been well-studied during the past few decades, mainly in connection with effects on technical systems. The biological effects of solar and geomagnetic activity have been largely ignored because the amplitudes of the electromagnetic fields (EMF) are small, typically one to several hundreds of nanoteslas. This is much weaker than electromagnetic noise of anthropogenic origin and about 10 orders of magnitude less than the characteristic energies of biochemical reactions. During the past 20 years, however, more careful consideration has been given to possible nonthermal mechanisms of interaction of biological systems with weak (<1 mT) low-frequency EMF, which are unavoidably present in the environment, and some progress has been made towards understanding how an interaction can occur.
Cliver, E. W.
R.C. Carrington (1826-1875) is remembered in this session as the co-discoverer of the first solar flare ever reported - on 1 September 1859. The ensuing space weather event remains a "worst case scenario" for solar-terrestrial interaction. Carrington was one of the most accomplished solar astronomers of the 19th century and is credited with the discovery of differential rotation and the variation of sunspot latitude over the solar cycle. I will review Carrington's life, which ended soon and sadly after a brief but brilliant career, and the scientific times in which he worked. I will assess the contemporary impact of Carrington's flare observation and will briefly recount how the meaning of the tantalizing clue presented by this event gradually came to light.
The ionosphere has captured the interest of scientists and communications specialists for many years. Research has been intrinsically applications oriented since Guglielmo Marconi identified an ionized region within the upper atmosphere that acted like a high-altitude mirror reflecting radio waves so that long-distance communication could be achieved. His successful transatlantic radio transmissions early in the twentieth century heralded the beginning of an era of wireless communications. Eager to capitalize on this, civilian and military industries sponsored research to better understand the ionosphere. These endeavors established that the ionosphere exhibits considerable variability, with significant changes associated with ionospheric storms that are driven by solar disturbances. This variability, now termed space weather, also introduces changes in radio propagation conditions that can disrupt various radio systems, such as high-frequency and satellite communications, the Global Positioning System, radar, and specialized surveillance methods.
Xu, Z.; Gannon, Jennifer L.; Rigler, Erin J.
The phenomenon of ultra-low frequency geomagnetic pulsations was first observed in the ground-based measurements of the 1859 Carrington Event and has been studied for over 100 years. Pulsation frequency is considered to be “ultra” low when it is lower than the natural frequencies of the plasma, such as the ion gyrofrequency. Ultra-low frequency pulsations are considered a source of noise in some geophysical analysis techniques, such as aeromagnetic surveys and transient electromagnetics, so it is critical to develop near real-time space weather products to monitor these geomagnetic pulsations. The proper spectral analysis of magnetometer data, such as using wavelet analysis techniques, can also be important to Geomagnetically Induced Current risk assessment.
Keller, L. P.
Space weathering is a term used to include all of the processes which act on material exposed at the surface of a planetary or small body. In the case of the moon, it includes a variety of processes which have formed the lunar regolith, caused the maturation of lunar soils, and formed patina on rock surfaces. The processes include micrometeorite impact and reworking, implantation of solar wind and flare particles, radiation damage and chemical effects from solar particles and cosmic rays, interactions with the lunar atmosphere, and sputtering erosion and deposition. Space weathering effects collectively result in a reddened continuum slope, lowered albedo, and attenuated absorption features in reflectance spectra of lunar soils as compared to finely comminuted rocks from the same Apollo sites. However, the regolith processes that cause these effects are not well known, nor is the petrographic setting of the products of these processes fully understood. An interesting confluence of events occurred in the early 1990s. First, came the discovery of vapor deposited coatings on lunar regolith grains by Keller and McKay, who showed that amorphous coatings from 50-100 nm thick containing fine-grained Fe metal (1-10 nm in diameter) were common in the fine size fraction of several mature lunar soils. The other discovery was the recognition that the optical properties of lunar soils were dominated by fine grain sized material (less than 45 micrometer fraction) by Pieters and coworkers. These discoveries led to coordinated studies that looked at the mineralogy, chemistry, and optical properties of lunar soils as function of composition, maturity, and grain size fraction. One of the major revelations from these studies was the recognition that much of the nanophase Fe metal is surface-correlated especially in the finest size fractions, and that it was this nanophase Fe that dominated the optical properties of the soil.
Falconer, David; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor; Moore, Ron
We have developed a space-weather forecasting tool using an active-region free-energy proxy that was measured from MDI line-of-sight magnetograms. To develop this forecasting tool (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather Journal, in press), we used a database of 40,000 MDI magnetograms of 1300 active regions observed by MDI during the previous solar cycle (cycle 23). From each magnetogram we measured our free-energy proxy and for each active region we determined its history of major flare, CME and Solar Particle Event (SPE) production. This database determines from the value of an active region s free-energy proxy the active region s expected rate of production of 1) major flares, 2) CMEs, 3) fast CMEs, and 4) SPEs during the next few days. This tool was delivered to NASA/SRAG in 2010. With MDI observations ending, we have to be able to use HMI magnetograms instead of MDI magnetograms. One of the difficulties is that the measured value of the free-energy proxy is sensitive to the spatial resolution of the measured magnetogram: the 0.5 /pixel resolution of HMI gives a different value for the free-energy proxy than the 2 /pixels resolution of MDI. To use our MDI-database forecasting curves until a comparably large HMI database is accumulated, we smooth HMI line-of-sight magnetograms to MDI resolution, so that we can use HMI to find the value of the free-energy proxy that MDI would have measured, and then use the forecasting curves given by the MDI database. The new version for use with HMI magnetograms was delivered to NASA/SRAG (March 2011). It can also use GONG magnetograms, as a backup.
Krankowski, A.; Sieradzki, R.; Zakharenkova, I. E.; Cherniak, I. V.
The International GNSS Service (IGS) Ionosphere Working Group routinely provides the users global ionosphere maps (GIMs) of vertical total electron content (vTEC). The IGS GIMs are provided with spatial resolution of 5.0 degrees x 2.5 degrees in longitude and latitude, respectively. The current temporal resolution is 2 hours, however, 1-hour maps are delivered as a pilot project. There are three types IGS GIMs: the final, rapid and predicted. The latencies of the IGS ionospheric final and rapid products are 10 days and 1 day, respectively. The predicted GIMs are generated for 1 and 2 days in advance. There are four IGS Associate Analysis Centres (IAACs) that provide ionosphere maps computed with independent methodologies using GNSS data. These maps are uploaded to the IGS Ionosphere Combination and Validation Center at the GRL/UWM (Geodynamics Research Laboratory of the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland) that produces the IGS official ionospheric products, which are published online via ftp and www. On the other hand, the increasing number of permanently tracking GNSS stations near the North Geomagnetic Pole allow for using satellite observations to detect the ionospheric disturbances at high latitudes with even higher spatial resolution. In the space weather service developed at GRL/UWM, the data from the Arctic stations belonging to IGS/EPN/POLENET networks were used to study TEC fluctuations and scintillations. Since the beginning of 2011, a near real-time service presenting the conditions in the ionosphere have been operational at GRL/UWM www site. The rate of TEC index (ROTI) expressed in TECU/min is used as a measure of TEC fluctuations. The service provides 2-hour maps of the TEC variability. In addition, for each day the daily map of the ionospheric fluctuations as a function geomagnetic local time is also created. This presentation shows the architecture, algorithms, performance and future developments of the IGS GIMs and this new space
This dissertation presents numerical simulation results of the solar wind interaction with the Martian upper atmosphere by using three comprehensive 3-D models: the Mars Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (M-GITM), the Mars exosphere Monte Carlo model Adaptive Mesh Particle Simulator (M-AMPS), and the BATS-R-US Mars multi-fluid MHD (MF-MHD) model. The coupled framework has the potential to provide improved predictions for ion escape rates for comparison with future data to be returned by the MAVEN mission (2014-2016) and thereby improve our understanding of present day escape processes. Estimates of ion escape rates over Mars history must start from properly validated models that can be extrapolated into the past. This thesis aims to build a model library for the NASA Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission, which will thus enhance the science return from the MAVEN mission. In this thesis, we aim to address the following four main scientific questions by adopting the one-way coupled framework developed here: (1) What are the Martian ion escape rates at the current epoch and ancient times? (2) What controls the ion escape processes at the current epoch? How are the ion escape variations connected to the solar cycle, crustal field orientation and seasonal variations? (3) How do the variable 3-D cold neutral thermosphere and hot oxygen corona affect the solar wind-Mars interaction? (4) How does the Martian atmosphere respond to extreme variations (e.g., ICMEs) in the solar wind and its interplanetary environment? These questions are closely related to the primary scientific goals of NASA's MAVEN mission and European Space Agency's Mars Express (MEX) mission. We reasonably answer all these four questions at the end of this thesis by employing the one-way coupled framework and comparing the simulation results with both MEX and MAVEN observational data.
Britt, D.; Schelling, P.; Consolmagno, G.; Bradley, T.
Space weathering is a generic term for the effects on atmosphereless solid bodies in the solar system from a range of processes associated with direct exposure to the space environment. These include impact processes (shock, vaporization, fragmentation, heating, melting, and ejecta formation), radiation damage (from galactic and solar cosmic rays), solar-wind effects (irradiation, ion implantation, and sputtering), and the chemical reactions driven by these processes. The classic example of space weathering is the formation of the lunar spectral red slope associated with the production of nanophase Fe (npFe0) in the dusty lunar regolith (C.R. Chapman, 2004, Annual Review of Earth & Planet. Sci. 32, C.M. Pieters, 2000, MAPS 35). Similar npFe0 has been recovered from asteroid (25143) Itokawa and some asteroid classes do exhibit modest spectral red slopes (T. Noguchi, 2011, Science 333). Space weathering can be thought of as driven by a combination of the chemical environment of space (hard vacuum, low oxygen fugacity, solar-wind implantation of hydrogen) along with thermal energy supplied by micrometeorite impacts. The forward modeling of space weathering as thermodynamically-driven decomposition of common rock-forming minerals suggests the production of a range of daughter products: (1) The silicate products typically lose oxygen, other volatile elements (i.e., sulfur and sodium), and metallic cations, producing minerals that are typically more disordered and less optically active than the original parent materials. (2) The decomposed metallic cations form in nano-sized blebs including npFe0, on the surfaces or in condensing rims of mineral grains. This creates a powerful optical component as seen in the lunar red slope. Surfaces with exposed npFe0 are an ideal environment for catalyzing further reactions. (3) The liberated volatile elements and gases (O, S, Na) may form an observable exosphere (e.g., Moon and Mercury) and can either escape from the body or
Baker, D. N.
A key goal for the space weather community is to define extreme conditions that might plausibly afflict human technology. On 23 July 2012 solar active region 1520 (~133°W heliographic longitude) gave rise to a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) with an initial speed that was determined to be >3000 km/s. The eruption was directed away from Earth toward 144°W longitude. STEREO-A sensors detected the CME arrival only about 18 hours later and made in situ measurements of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field. We have posed the question of what would have happened if this huge interplanetary event had been Earthward directed. Using a well-proven geomagnetic storm forecast model, we find that the 23-24 July event would certainly have produced a geomagnetic storm that was comparable to the largest events of the 20th Century (Dst ~ -500nT). Using plausible assumptions about seasonal and time-of-day orientation of the Earth's magnetic dipole, the most extreme modeled value of storm-time disturbance would have been Dst=-1182nT. This is probably considerably larger than the famous Carrington storm of 1859. This finding has far reaching implications because it demonstrates that extreme space weather conditions such as those during March of 1989 or September of 1859 can happen even during a modest solar activity cycle such as the one presently underway. We argue that this extreme event should immediately be employed by the space weather community to model severe space weather effects on technological systems such as the electric power grid.
Chiswell, S.; Buckley, R.
During the year 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) completed an eight fold increase in sampling capability for weather radars to 250 m resolution. This increase is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current NWS operational model domains utilize grid spacing an order of magnitude larger than the radar data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of radar reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution was investigated under a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) 'quick hit' grant to determine the impact of improved data resolution on model predictions with specific initial proof of concept application to daily Savannah River Site operations and emergency response. Development of software to process NWS radar reflectivity and radial velocity data was undertaken for assimilation of observations into numerical models. Data values within the radar data volume undergo automated quality control (QC) analysis routines developed in support of this project to eliminate empty/missing data points, decrease anomalous propagation values, and determine error thresholds by utilizing the calculated variances among data values. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) three dimensional variational data assimilation package (WRF-3DVAR) was used to incorporate the QC'ed radar data into input and boundary conditions. The lack of observational data in the vicinity of SRS available to NWS operational models signifies an important data void where radar observations can provide significant input. These observations greatly enhance the knowledge of storm structures and the environmental conditions which influence their development. As the increase in computational power and availability has made higher
Kaňuchová, Zuzana; Brunetto, Rosario; Melita, Mario; Strazzulla, Giovanni
The surfaces of small bodies in the outer Solar System are rich in organic compounds and carbonaceous refractories mixed with ices and silicates. As made clear by dedicated laboratory experiments space weathering (e.g. energetic ion bombardment) can produce red colored materials starting from bright and spectrally flat ices. In a classical scenario, the space weathering processes “nurture” alter the small bodies surface spectra but are in competition with resurfacing agents that restore the original colors, and the result of these competing processes continuously modifying the surfaces is supposed to be responsible for the observed spectral variety of those small bodies. However an alternative point of view is that the different colors are due to “nature” i.e. to the different primordial composition of different objects. In this paper we present a model, based on laboratory results, that gives an original contribution to the “nature” vs. “nurture” debate by addressing the case of surfaces showing different fractions of rejuvenated vs. space weathered surface, and calculating the corresponding color variations. We will show how a combination of increasing dose coupled to different resurfacing can reproduce the whole range of observations of small outer Solar System bodies. Here we demonstrate, for the first time that objects having a fully weathered material turn back in the color-color diagrams. At the same time, object with the different ratio of pristine and weathered surface areas lay on specific lines in color-color diagrams, if exposed to the same amount of irradiation.
Hilgers, Alain; Glover, Alexi; Daly, Eamonn; Luntama, Juha-Pekka
This presentation gives an overview of the past and current ESA space weather research ac-tivities and discusses the approaches used or foreseen for transitioning research products into application. Since its establishment ESA has supported and coordinated space weather re-search through its various programmes. The scientific programme has especially contributed to the investigation of key scientific aspects of space weather phenomena while the technology and research programmes targeted the effects of space environments on space systems. In 1998 ESA has started consultations among member states and performed studies to identify the requirements for a future European wide space weather application programme encompassing monitoring and forecasting services to support and protect the operation of space and ground based systems. As a by-product, structural developments were made including the establish-ment of a network of space weather service prototypes (SWENET). In 2008 the council of ESA decided to initiate a Space Situational Awareness (SSA) programme including space weather as one of the pillars together with space surveillance and near-Earth objects elements. Since the Space Weather element is planned to primarily rely on relevant existing assets it will provide a framework for transitioning several research assets of ESA and its member states to operational components of the overall system. Other paths will be considered for other assets which are not directly relevant to the SSA programme or which are still in a early research stage.
Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.
Long-range space weather forecasts are akin to seasonal forecasts of terrestrial weather. We don t expect to forecast individual events but we do hope to forecast the underlying level of activity important for satellite operations and mission pl&g. Forecasting space weather conditions years or decades into the future has traditionally been based on empirical models of the solar cycle. Models for the shape of the cycle as a function of its amplitude become reliable once the amplitude is well determined - usually two to three years after minimum. Forecasting the amplitude of a cycle well before that time has been more of an art than a science - usually based on cycle statistics and trends. Recent developments in dynamo theory -the theory explaining the generation of the Sun s magnetic field and the solar activity cycle - have now produced models with predictive capabilities. Testing these models with historical sunspot cycle data indicates that these predictions may be highly reliable one, or even two, cycles into the future.
Snegirev, S. D.; Fridman, V. M.; Sheiner, O. A.
The procedure of short-term prediction of main solar flares was created on the basis of temporal behavior of long-period microwave pulsations [Kobrin et al., 1997]. At the same time it was shown that before these flares one could observe long-period (T > 20 min) pulsations of geomagnetic field [Kobrin et al, 1985]. The resemblance between microwave and geomagnetic pulsations (duration and temporal behaviour) allows us to propose the common nature of these variations: the reflection of solar energy accumulation and instabilities in solar centers of activity. To be an important factor of Space Weather above mentioned pulsations can be useful for constructing the procedures to predict the near Earth's conditions. This work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Fundamental Research and Russian Federal Programm "Astronomy" (grant N 126.96.36.199). Kobrin M.M, Malygin V.I., Snegirev S.D. Plan. Space Sci., 33, N11, p. 1251 (1985). Kobrin M.M., Pakhomov V.V., Snegirev S.D., Fridman V.M., Sheiner O.A. Proc. Workshop `STPW-96', Tokyo: RCW, p. 200 (1997).
Weather data is usually required at several locations over a large watershed, especially when using distributed models for hydrological simulations. In many applications, spatially correlated weather data can be provided by a multi-site stochastic weather generator which considers the spatial correl...
Hanada, Toshiya; Matsumoto, Haruhisa; Yoshikawa, Akimasa; Yanagisawa, Toshifumi; Kitazawa, Yukihito
Kyushu University established International Centre for Space Weather Science and Education, shortly ICSWSE, in April 2012. The ICSWSE is leading two major research areas. One is magnetized environment of the Earth, and the other is space debris environment. Now, the ICSWSE fuses these two major research areas into one new project to contribute to the protection of space environment and space situational awareness. The ICSWSE has already established a technical and human network under the MAGnetic Data Acquisition System / Circum pan Pacific Magnetometer Array (MAGDAS/CPMN) project. Now, the ICSWSE is willing to establish a measurement network for space debris using small-aperture optical telescopes and small satellite constellation under the technical and human network, being named DEBris Data Acquisition System (DEBDAS). The telescopes are well organized to be robotically and remotely controlled, including sophisticated image processing techniques and orbit estimation software. The satellites are conducting in-situ measurements of micron-size debris using an easy-to-operate new sensor developed at JAXA. Data acquired from the systems will be analyzed and modeled in a manner coupled with space weather science to provide a better understanding of the present and future space debris environment. The ICSWSE also aims at education for practical astronomy and space engineering at Kyushu University, collaborative measurements in combination between robotic telescopes and small satellites, space environmental awareness and space science, including debris generation and resulting environment. Practical astronomy provides you with planning and observation, processing and detection, and origin identification. Space engineering provides you with small satellite design, production, and operation.
Posner, Edward C.
Deep space telemetry is and will remain signal-to-noise limited and vulnerable to interference. A need exists to increase received signal power and decrease noise. This includes going to Ka-band in the mid-1990's to increase directivity. The effects of a wet atmosphere can increase the noise temperature by a factor of 5 or more, even at X-band, but the order of magnitude increase in average data rate obtainable at Ka-band relative to X-band makes the increased uncertainty a good trade. Lowbit error probabilities required by data compression are available both theoretically and practically with coding, at an infinitesimal power penalty rather than the 10 to 15 dB more power required to reduce error probabilities without coding. Advances are coming rapidly in coding, as with the new constraint-length 15 rate 1/4 convolutional code concatenated with the already existing Reed-Solomon code to be demonstrated on Galileo. In addition, high density spacecraft data storage will allow selective retransmissions, even from the edge of the Solar System, to overcome weather effects. In general, deep space communication was able to operate, and will continue to operate, closer to theoretical limits than any other form of communication. These include limits in antenna area and directivity, system noise temperature, coding efficiency, and everything else. The deep space communication links of the mid-90's and beyond will be compatible with new instruments and compression algorithms and represent a sensible investment in an overall end-to-end information system design.
Dominque, Deborah L.; Chapman, Clark R.; Killen, Rosemary M.; Zurbuchen, Thomas H.; Gilbert, Jason A.; Sarantos, Menelaos; Benna, Mehdi; Slavin, James A.; Orlando, Thomas M.; Schriver, David; Sprague, Ann L.; Blewett, David T.; Gillis-Davis, Jeffrey J.; Feldman, William C.; Lawrence, David J.; Ho, George C.; Vilas, Faith; Pieters, Carle M.; McClintock, William E.; Helbert, Jorn
Understanding the composition of Mercury's crust is key to comprehending the formation of the planet. The regolith, derived from the crustal bedrock, has been altered via a set of space weathering processes. These processes are the same set of mechanisms that work to form Mercury's exosphere, and are moderated by the local space environment and the presence of an intrinsic planetary magnetic field. The alterations need to be understood in order to determine the initial crustal compositions. The complex interrelationships between Mercury's exospheric processes, the space environment, and surface composition are examined and reviewed. The processes are examined in the context of our understanding of these same processes on the lunar and asteroid regoliths. Keywords: Mercury (planet) Space weathering Surface processes Exosphere Surface composition Space environment 3
Noble, S. K.; Pieters, C. M.; Keller, L. P.
Space weathering is defined as the physical and optical changes incurred by material exposed to the space environment. Through studies of lunar soils, these changes are becoming well understood. However, the effects of space weathering are dependent on the physical environment to which the host materials are exposed, and thus, the effects will likely vary from body to body. The optical effects of space weathering result from nanophase iron (npFe(sup 0)) created during micrometeorite bombardment and solar wind sputtering. In the asteroid belt, bodies are farther from the sun than our Moon, and are widely known to incur less solar wind implantation and sputtering. The velocity of impacts is smaller resulting in less melting and vaporization, and therefore fewer space weathering products. The impact rate in the asteroid belt is greater, which will result in more comminution, further diluting any weathering products. Ergo, asteroidal regoliths should contain fewer space weathering products than lunar soils. However, even very small degrees of space weathering can have dramatic consequences for the optical properties of soils. A discussion on the optical effects of space weathering is presented.
Violent weather has always played an important part in human history. It is only in recent times that much of the underlying cause of weather has been understood. The discussion in this booklet considers time, space, and spirit. Time refers to a sense of history; space refers to geography; and spirit refers to life and thought. Several chapters…
Jonas, S.; Fronczyk, K.; McCarron, E.; Pratt, L. M.
An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social wellbeing. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events occur less frequently with only several historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) forensically examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events; and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present an analysis of several of these studies. We created a unified statistical framework to visualize previous analyses, and developed a model from an ensemble using statistical methods. We look at geomagnetic disturbance probability across multiple return periods. We discuss what the most likely 100-year extreme event (a parameter of interest to policy makers and planners) and the return period for other extreme historical events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policy makers and planners, the current limitations (in data and understanding) when compared to other hazards, and the gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments.
Liu, Y. D.; Luhmann, J. G.; Kajdic, P.; Kilpua, E.; Lugaz, N.; Nitta, N.; Lavraud, B.; Bale, S. D.; Farrugia, C. J.; Galvin, A. B.
Extreme space weather refers to extreme conditions in space driven by solar eruptions and subsequent disturbances in interplanetary space, or otherwise called solar superstorms. Understanding extreme space weather events is becoming ever more vital, as the vulnerability of our society and its technological infrastructure to space weather has increased dramatically. Instances of extreme space weather, however, are very rare by definition and therefore are difficult to study. Here we report and investigate an extreme event, which occurred on 2012 July 23 with a maximum speed of about 3050 km/s near the Sun. This event, with complete modern remote sensing and in situ observations from multiple vantage points, provides an unprecedented opportunity to study the cause and consequences of extreme space weather. It produced a superfast shock with a peak solar wind speed of 2246 km/s and a superstrong magnetic cloud with a peak magnetic field of 109 nT observed near 1 AU at STEREO A. The record solar wind speed and magnetic field would produce a record geomagnetic storm since the space era with a minimum Dst of -1200 - -600 nT, if this event hit the Earth. We demonstrate how successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be enhanced into a solar superstorm as they interact en route from the Sun to 1 AU. These results not only provide a benchmark for studies of extreme space weather, but also present a new view of how an extreme space weather event can be generated from usual solar eruptions.
Tulunay, Y.; Tulunay, E.; Kocabas, Z.; Altuntas, E.; Yapici, T.; Senalp, E. T.; Hippler, R.
Space Weather has important effects on many systems and peripherals that human interacts with. However, most of the people are not aware of those interactions. During the FP6 SWEETS, COST 724 and the ‘I love my Sun' activities it was aimed to create basis to bring together academicians from universities, experts from industry, scientific institutes, and the public, especially the school children of age 7-11, in order to enhance the awareness of space weather effects and to discuss appropriate countermeasures by different education and promotion methods including non-technical ones. This work mentions the activities performed in Turkey within the framework. Since 1990, a small group at METU has been developing data driven models in order to forecast some critical system parameters related with the near-Earth space processes. With the background on the subject the group feels responsible to organise activities in Turkey to inform public on enhancing the awareness of space weather effects. In order to inform and educate public on their interaction with the Space Weather, distinct social activities which take quick and strong attention were organised. Those include art shows and workshops, quizes, movies and entertainments, special programs for school children of age 7-11 under the ‘I love my Sun' activities, press releases, audio-visual media including webpages [Tulunay, 2007]. The impact of the activities can be evaluated considering the before and after activity record materials of the participants. For instance, under the ‘I love my Sun' activities, the school children drew pictures related with Sun before and after the informative programs. The performance of reaching the school children on the subject is very promising. Sub-activities conducted under the action are: 1. Space Weather Dance Show "Sonnensturm" 2. Web Quiz all over Europe: In Türkiye 3. Space Weather / Sun / Heliospheric Public Science Festivals in 27 Countries: In Türkiye 4. Space Weather on
Tokumitsu, Masahiro; Ishida, Yoshiteru
This paper proposes a space weather forecasting system at geostationary orbit for high-energy electron ﬂux (>2 MeV). The forecasting model involves multiple sensors on multiple satellites. The sensors interconnect and evaluate each other to predict future conditions at geostationary orbit. The proposed forecasting model is constructed using a dynamic relational network for sensor diagnosis and event monitoring. The sensors of the proposed model are located at different positions in space. The satellites for solar monitoring equip with monitoring devices for the interplanetary magnetic ﬁeld and solar wind speed. The satellites orbit near the Earth monitoring high-energy electron ﬂux. We investigate forecasting for typical two examples by comparing the performance of two models with different numbers of sensors. We demonstrate the prediction by the proposed model against coronal mass ejections and a coronal hole. This paper aims to investigate a possibility of space weather forecasting based on the satellite network with in-situ sensing.
Ruffolo, D. J.; Tooprakai, P.; Seripienlert, A.; Chuychai, P.; Matthaeus, W. H.
Among the space weather effects due to gradual solar storms, greatly enhanced high-energy ion fluxes can cause radiation damage to satellites, spacecraft, and astronauts, which motivates examination of the transport of high-energy solar ions to Earth orbit. Ions of low kinetic energy (up to ˜2sim 2 MeV/nucleon) from impulsive solar events exhibit abrupt changes due to filamentation of magnetic connection from the Sun, indicating that anisotropic, field-aligned magnetic flux tube-like structures persist to Earth orbit. By employing a corresponding spherical two-component model of Alfv'enic (slab) and 2D magnetic fluctuations to trace simulated trajectories in the solar wind, we show that the distribution of high-energy (E≥1Egeq1 GeV) protons from gradual solar events is squeezed toward magnetic flux structures with a specific polarity due to the conical shape of the flux structures, which results from the expanding flow of the solar wind. It is difficult to observationally determine what polarity of flux structure the Earth is in at a given time, so this transport phenomenon contributes to event-to-event variability in ground level enhancements of GeV-range ions from solar storms, presenting a fundamental uncertainty in space weather prediction. Partially supported by the Thailand Research Fund, a Postdoctoral Fellowship from the Thailand Center of Excellence in Physics, a Research Fellowship from the Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, the U.S. NSF (AGS-1063439 and SHINE AGS-1156094), NASA (Heliophysics Theory NNX08AI47G & NNX11AJ44G), and the Solar Probe Plus/ISIS project. KEYWORDS:  SPACE PLASMA PHYSICS / Charged particle motion and acceleration,  SPACE PLASMA PHYSICS / Turbulence,  INTERPLANETARY PHYSICS / Energetic particles, solar,  SPACE WEATHER / Space radiation environment
Tanskanen, E. I.; Pérez-Suárez, D.
A browser-based research tool has been developed for time series analysis on-line. Large amount of high-resolution measurements are nowadays available from different heliospheric locations. It has become an issue how to best handle the ever-increasing amount of information about the near-Earth space weather conditions, and how to improve the social data analysis tools for space studies. To resolve the problem, we have developed an interactive web interface, called Substorm Zoo, which we expect to become a powerful tool for scientists and a useful tool for public.
Guerrero, Antonio; Cid, Consuelo; Saiz, Elena; Palacios, Judith; Cerrato, Yolanda
The analysis of local geomagnetic disturbances (specific longitude and latitude) have recently proved to play an important role in space weather research. Localized strong (high intensity) and impulsive (fast developed and fast recovered) geomagnetic disturbances are typically recorded at high latitudes and commonly related to field-aligned currents. These type of disturbances are also recorded, less frequently, at mid and low latitudes, representing an important hazard for technology. In order to obtain geomagnetic disturbances (geomagnetic index) from the records at a certain observatory, a baseline has to be removed. The baseline is usually determined taking into account geomagnetic secular variation and solar quiet time. At mid-latitudes the shape of the daily solar quiet component presents a strong day-to-day variability difficult to predict. In this work we present a new technique capable to determine the baseline at mid-latitudes which allows us to obtain a high resolution local geomagnetic index with the highest accuracy ever obtained at mid-latitudes.
Lanzerotti, L. J.
While not recognized at the time or for many years following, the earliest evidence for the impact of solar-terrestrial processes on technical systems appeared in the first half of the 19th century with the installation of the first practical electrical telegraph communication systems. The growth of wireless communications after Marconi's trans-Atlantic demonstration in 1901 of its long-distance feasibility was rapid. However, it was soon recognized that solar-induced disturbances also could disrupt this new technology: ``... times of bad fading [of radio signals occur in] the same time periods when cables and land [communication] lines experience difficulties ...." (Marconi, 1928). Bursts of solar radio emissions were first recognized (though not immediately) through their jamming of the early radar that were developed during the Second World War. Such solar radio phenomena remain an important concern for certain military technologies to date, as well as for newer civilian wireless technologies. This talk will present a broad overview of the history of the impacts of solar-terrestrial processes on human technologies and will address a number of contemporary issues in what has become to be known as ``space weather."
Posner, A; Hesse, M; St Cyr, O C
Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations. Key Points Manuscript assesses current and near-future space weather assets Current assets unreliable for forecasting of severe geomagnetic storms Near-future assets will not improve the situation PMID:26213516
Rosa, Reinaldo; Veronese, Thalita; Giovani, Paulo
Analysis of information from multiple data sources obtained through high resolution instrumental measurements has become a fundamental task in all scientific areas. The development of expert methods able to treat such multi-source data systems, with both large variability and measurement extension, is a key for studying complex scientific phenomena, especially those related to systemic analysis in space and environmental sciences. In this talk, we present a time series generalization introducing the concept of generalized numerical lattice, which represents a discrete sequence of temporal measures for a given variable. In this novel representation approach each generalized numerical lattice brings post-analytical data information. We define a generalized numerical lattice as a set of three parameters representing the following data properties: dimensionality, size and post-analytical measure (e.g., the autocorrelation, Hurst exponent, etc). From this representation generalization, any multi-source database can be reduced to a closed set of classified time series in spatiotemporal generalized dimensions. As a case study, we show a preliminary application in space science data, highlighting the possibility of a real time analysis expert system. In this particular application, we have selected and analyzed, using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), several decimetric solar bursts associated to X flare-classes. The association with geomagnetic activity is also reported. DFA method is performed in the framework of a radio burst automatic monitoring system. Our results may characterize the variability pattern evolution, computing the DFA scaling exponent, scanning the time series by a short windowing before the extreme event . For the first time, the application of systematic fluctuation analysis for space weather purposes is presented. The prototype for visual analytics is implemented in a Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) by using the K20 Nvidia
Matsumoto, Toru; Tsuchiyama, Akira; Miyake, Akira; Noguchi, Takaaki; Nakamura, Michihiko; Uesugi, Kentaro; Takeuchi, Akihisa; Suzuki, Yoshio; Nakano, Tsukasa
Surface morphologies of a regolith particle retrieved from Asteroid 25143 Itokawa were observed using field-emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM). The images were compared with the internal structures of the space-weathered rim of the same particle observed by transmission electron and scanning transmission electron microscopies (TEM/STEM) to investigate whether there is a direct link between the surface morphology and internal structure. FE-SEM observation showed that most of the particle surface is covered by convex spots less than 100 nm in size. TEM/STEM observation revealed that this particle has a space-weathered rim composed of partially amorphous structures with nano-Fe particles and vesicles. The vesicles swell the surface and form blisters that correspond to the spotted structures observed by FE-SEM. These observations indicate that a space-weathered rim with blisters can be observed by FE-SEM without using destructive methods. The observation of the space-weathered rim by FE-SEM also enabled us to obtain the distribution of the space-weathered rim on the particle surfaces. The existence of space-weathered rims on the opposing surfaces of the particle shows that most of the surfaces were directly exposed to the space environment by movement on the Itokawa surface. The depths of the blister locations and the chemical composition of the space-weathered rim indicate that the observed space-weathered rim with blisters was formed mainly by solar wind irradiation. The space-weathered rim analyzed in this study is thicker than those of Itokawa particles previously examined, indicating that the rim may has experienced longer solar wind exposure than those previously observed.
Dubois, Caroline; Goderniaux, Pascal; Deceuster, John; Poulain, Angélique; Kaufmann, Olivier
'Ghost-rock' karst aquifer has recently been highlighted. In this particular type of aquifer, the karst is not expressed as open conduits but consists in zones where the limestone is weathered. The in-situ weathering of limestone leaves a soft porous material called 'alterite'. The hydro-mechanical properties of this material differs significantly from those of the host rock: the weathering enhances the storage capacity and the conductivity of the rock. This type of weathered karst aquifer has never been studied from a hydrogeological point of view. In this study, we present the hydraulic characterization of such weathered zones. We also present a modelling approach derived from the common Equivalent Porous Medium (EPM) approach, but including the spatial distribution of hydrogeological properties through the weathered features, from the hard rock to the alterite, according to a weathering index. Unlike the Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) approaches, which enable to take into account a limited number of fractures, this new approach allows creating models including thousands of weathered features. As the properties of the alterite have to be considered at a centimeter scale, it is necessary to upscale these properties to carry out simulations over large areas. Therefore, an upscaling method was developed, taking into account the anisotropy of the weathered features. Synthetic models are built, upscaled and different hydrogeological simulations are run to validate the method. This methodology is finally tested on a real case study: the modelling of the dewatering drainage flow of an exploited quarry in a weathered karst aquifer in Belgium.
Polavarapu, S. M.; Neish, M.; Tanguay, M.; Girard, C.; de Grandpré, J.; Gravel, S.; Semeniuk, K.; Chan, D.
The ability to simulate greenhouse gases on the global domain is useful for providing boundary conditions for regional flux inversions, as well as for providing reference data for bias correction of satellite measurements. Given the existence of operational weather and environmental prediction models and assimilation systems at Environment Canada, it makes sense to use these tools for greenhouse gas simulations. In this work, we describe the adaptations needed to reasonably simulate CO2 with a weather forecast model. The main challenges were the implementation of a mass conserving advection scheme, and the careful implementation of a mixing ratio defined with respect to dry air. The transport of tracers through convection was also added, and the vertical mixing through the boundary layer was slightly modified. With all these changes, the model conserves CO2 mass well on the annual time scale, and the high resolution (0.9 degree grid spacing) permits a good description of synoptic scale transport. The use of a coupled meteorological/tracer transport model also permits an assessment of approximations needed in offline transport model approaches, such as the neglect of water vapour mass when computing a tracer mixing ratio with respect to dry air.
Molthan, Andrew; Case, Jonathan; Venner, Jason; Moreno-Madrinan, Max J.; Delgado, Francisco
Two projects at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have collaborated to develop a high resolution weather forecast model for Mesoamerica: The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, which integrates unique NASA satellite and weather forecast modeling capabilities into the operational weather forecasting community. NASA's SERVIR Program, which integrates satellite observations, ground-based data, and forecast models to improve disaster response in Central America, the Caribbean, Africa, and the Himalayas.
Space weather and the safety of ground infrastructures. Numerical simulation and prediction of electromagnetic effects induced by real magnetospheric substorms in the Earth's models with real three-dimensional distribution of electrical conductivity
Kuvshinov, Alexey; Filippov, Sergey; Kalegaev, Vladimir; Sidorova, Larisa; Mukhametdinova, Ludmila; Pankratov, Oleg; Alexeev, Dmitry
Strong eruptions at Sun’s surface produce large release of matter (plasma), which, with a speed of 800-1000 km/s (the solar wind), flows into interplanetary space. If the Earth appears to be on the way of the solar wind the interaction of the wind with the Earth's magnetosphere and the ionosphere leads to abnormal disturbance of fluctuating geomagnetic field. In the middle latitudes, the disturbances (geomagnetic storms) last a few days and have amplitudes up to 400 nT. At high latitudes, these perturbations (magnetospheric substorms) last a few hours and have amplitudes up to 3000 nT. According to Faraday’s law of induction, the fluctuating magnetic field in turn generates a electric field. The electric field for intense substorms can reach hundreds of volts/km in the polar region and generate very high, the so-called geomagnetic induced currents in the ground-based systems, such as power grids and pipelines. These currents are one of the most dangerous factors affecting the operation of the above systems. Thus extremely topical task in the field of "space weather" is the quantification and prediction of spatio-temporal distribution of the electric field during substorm activity. Despite the abundance of works carried out in this direction, the problem is still far from a satisfactory solution. In the field of modeling, researchers are still working with highly simplified models of both the source and the conducting Earth. As for prediction the situation is even worse. In this presentation we discuss a general formalism which allows for simulating the electric fields induced by real magnetospheric substorms in the spherical model of the Earth with real three-dimensional distribution of conductivity. We show the first results of such simulations. We also discuss a concept to predict substorm spatio-temporal pattern of the electric field.
Keller, L. P.; Berger, E. L.; Christoffersen, R.; Zhang, S.
Space weathering effects on airless bodies result largely from micrometeorite impacts and solar wind interactions. Decades of research have provided insights into space weathering processes and their effects, but a major unanswered question still remains: what is the rate at which these space weathering effects are acquired in lunar and asteroidal regolith materials? To determine the space weathering rate for the formation of rims on lunar anorthite grains, we combine the rim width and type with the exposure ages of the grains, as determined by the accumulation of solar flare particle tracks. From these analyses, we recently showed that space weathering effects in mature lunar soils (both vapor-deposited rims and solar wind amorphized rims) accumulate and attain steady state in 10(sup 6)-10(sup 7) y. Regolith grains from Itokawa also show evidence for space weathering effects, but in these samples, solar wind interactions appear to dominate over impactrelated effects such as vapor-deposition. While in our lunar work, we focused on anorthite, given its high abundance on the lunar surface, for the Itokawa grains, we focused on olivine. We previously studied 3 olivine grains from Itokawa and determined their solar flare track densities and described their solar wind damaged rims]. We also analyzed olivine grains from lunar soils, measured their track densities and rim widths, and used this data along with the Itokawa results to constrain the space weathering rate on Itokawa. We observe that olivine and anorthite have different responses to solar wind irradiation.
Roy, B.; DasGupta, A.; Paul, A.
effects of the equatorial ionospheric irregularities on satellite-based communication and navigation systems have been studied over the past few decades as space weather events have the potential to seriously disturb the technological infrastructure of modern society. The present paper tries to understand operational compliance of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers to International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) standards under scintillation conditions by recording the received phase of the L1(1575.42 MHz) signal from two stations, namely Calcutta situated near the northern crest of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly and Siliguri, situated beyond the northern crest, at a subionospheric latitude separation of 4° along the same meridian. A causative approach is adopted whereby GPS phase scintillations have been monitored and receiver performance prior to loss of lock and cycle slips have been analyzed during August-October 2011 at Calcutta and September 2011 at Siliguri. The received phase at GPS-L1 frequency has often been found to fluctuate at kilohertz, often megahertz rates, thereby causing carrier-tracking loop malfunctions. It should be borne in mind that normal GPS receivers' carrier-tracking loops have a typical dynamic range of 14-18 Hz. Cycle slips have been observed with durations far exceeding ICAO specified levels for high dynamic platforms like aircrafts. Differences in cycle slips between Calcutta and Siliguri indicate possible evolution of irregularity structures even across small subionospheric swath. Significant improvement in present understanding of GPS phase scintillations should be developed and implemented in receiver designs prior to application of Satellite Based Augmentation System services for civil aviation, particularly in the geophysically sensitive equatorial region.
Hassan, E.; Morley, S.; Steinberg, J. T.
Knowing the upstream solar wind conditions is essential in forecasting the variations in the geomangetic field and the status of the Earth's ionosphere. Most data-driven simulations or data-assimilation codes, used for space weather forecasting, are based on the solar wind measurements at 1 AU, or more specifically at the first Lagrangian orbit (L1), such as observations from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). However, L1 measurements may not represent the solar wind conditions just outside the magnetosphere. As a result, time-series measurements from L1 by themselves are not adequate to run simulations to derive probabilistic forecasts of the magnetosphere and ionosphere. To obtain confidence levels and uncertainty estimates, a solar wind ensemble data set is desirable. Therefore we used three years of measurements atACE advected using the flat delay method to the Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP8) spacecraft location. Then, we compared both measurements to establish Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) functions for IMP8 measurements based on ACE measurements. In addition, we used a 4-categorization scheme to sort the incoming solar wind into ejecta, coronal-hole-origin, sector-reversal-regions, and streamer-belt-origin categories at both ACE and IMP8. We established the KDE functions for each category and compared with the uncategorized KDE functions. The location of the IMP8 spacecraft allows us to use these KDE functions to generate ensemble of solar wind data close to Earth's magnetopause. The ensemble can then be used to forecast the state of the geomagnetic field and the ionosphere.
Samsonov, Sergey; Kleimenova, Natalia; Petrova, Palmira
The relationship of the number of calls for the emergency medical care in Yakutsk (subauroral latitudes) in connection with myocardial infarction diseases during years near the maximum (1992) and minimum (1998) of the 11-year geomagnetic disturbance cycle to space weather parameters has been studied. It is found that at subauroral latitudes, the increase of geomagnetic activity, namely, the occurrence of night magnetospheric substorms, plays the important role in the exacerbation of myocardial infarctions. Substorms are accompanied by Pi1 irregular geomagnetic pulsations with periods of (0.5-3.0) Hz, coinciding with heart rhythms of a human being, thus, these waves can be a biotropic factor negatively influencing on the occurrence of myocardial infarctions. The comparison of seasonal change of the number of calls for emergency medical care to patients at subauroral latitudes with a simultaneous seasonal change of fatal endings because of an infarction at low latitudes (Bulgaria) has shown their essential difference. Thus, in Bulgaria the maximum of infarctions have been marked in winter, and minimum - in summer, and in Yakutsk a few maxima coinciding with the sharp and considerable increases of the level of the planetary geomagnetic disturbances have been observed. In this case, in Bulgaria the infarctions could be connected with availability of the Pc1 geomagnetic pulsations. Thus, the stable quasi-sinusoidal Pc1 pulsations can be a biotropic factor influencing on the development of myocardial infarctions at middle latitudes and the Pi1 irregular geomagnetic pulsations, which do not propagate to the lower latitudes, could be a biotropic factor at subauroral latitudes.