The Effect of Ocean Currents on Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stammer, Detlef; Leeuwenburgh, Olwijn

2000-01-01

We investigate regional and global-scale correlations between observed anomalies in sea surface temperature and height. A strong agreement between the two fields is found over a broad range of latitudes for different ocean basins. Both time-longitude plots and wavenumber-frequency spectra suggest an advective forcing of SST anomalies by a first-mode baroclinic wave field on spatial scales down to 400 km and time scales as short as 1 month. Even though the magnitude of the mean background temperature gradient is determining for the effectiveness of the forcing, there is no obvious seasonality that can be detected in the amplitudes of SST anomalies. Instead, individual wave signatures in the SST can in some cases be followed over periods of two years. The phase relationship between SST and SSH anomalies is dependent upon frequency and wavenumber and displays a clear decrease of the phase lag toward higher latitudes where the two fields come into phase at low frequencies. Estimates of the damping coefficient are larger than generally obtained for a purely atmospheric feedback. From a global frequency spectrum a damping time scale of 2-3 month was found. Regionally results are very variable and range from 1 month near strong currents to 10 month at low latitudes and in the sub-polar North Atlantic. Strong agreement is found between the first global EOF modes of 10 day averaged and spatially smoothed SST and SSH grids. The accompanying time series display low frequency oscillations in both fields.

Temporal Data-Driven Sleep Scheduling and Spatial Data-Driven Anomaly Detection for Clustered Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Li, Gang; He, Bin; Huang, Hongwei; Tang, Limin

2016-01-01

The spatial–temporal correlation is an important feature of sensor data in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). Most of the existing works based on the spatial–temporal correlation can be divided into two parts: redundancy reduction and anomaly detection. These two parts are pursued separately in existing works. In this work, the combination of temporal data-driven sleep scheduling (TDSS) and spatial data-driven anomaly detection is proposed, where TDSS can reduce data redundancy. The TDSS model is inspired by transmission control protocol (TCP) congestion control. Based on long and linear cluster structure in the tunnel monitoring system, cooperative TDSS and spatial data-driven anomaly detection are then proposed. To realize synchronous acquisition in the same ring for analyzing the situation of every ring, TDSS is implemented in a cooperative way in the cluster. To keep the precision of sensor data, spatial data-driven anomaly detection based on the spatial correlation and Kriging method is realized to generate an anomaly indicator. The experiment results show that cooperative TDSS can realize non-uniform sensing effectively to reduce the energy consumption. In addition, spatial data-driven anomaly detection is quite significant for maintaining and improving the precision of sensor data. PMID:27690035

OceanXtremes: Scalable Anomaly Detection in Oceanographic Time-Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, B. D.; Armstrong, E. M.; Chin, T. M.; Gill, K. M.; Greguska, F. R., III; Huang, T.; Jacob, J. C.; Quach, N.

2016-12-01

The oceanographic community must meet the challenge to rapidly identify features and anomalies in complex and voluminous observations to further science and improve decision support. Given this data-intensive reality, we are developing an anomaly detection system, called OceanXtremes, powered by an intelligent, elastic Cloud-based analytic service backend that enables execution of domain-specific, multi-scale anomaly and feature detection algorithms across the entire archive of 15 to 30-year ocean science datasets.Our parallel analytics engine is extending the NEXUS system and exploits multiple open-source technologies: Apache Cassandra as a distributed spatial "tile" cache, Apache Spark for in-memory parallel computation, and Apache Solr for spatial search and storing pre-computed tile statistics and other metadata. OceanXtremes provides these key capabilities: Parallel generation (Spark on a compute cluster) of 15 to 30-year Ocean Climatologies (e.g. sea surface temperature or SST) in hours or overnight, using simple pixel averages or customizable Gaussian-weighted "smoothing" over latitude, longitude, and time; Parallel pre-computation, tiling, and caching of anomaly fields (daily variables minus a chosen climatology) with pre-computed tile statistics; Parallel detection (over the time-series of tiles) of anomalies or phenomena by regional area-averages exceeding a specified threshold (e.g. high SST in El Nino or SST "blob" regions), or more complex, custom data mining algorithms; Shared discovery and exploration of ocean phenomena and anomalies (facet search using Solr), along with unexpected correlations between key measured variables; Scalable execution for all capabilities on a hybrid Cloud, using our on-premise OpenStack Cloud cluster or at Amazon. The key idea is that the parallel data-mining operations will be run "near" the ocean data archives (a local "network" hop) so that we can efficiently access the thousands of files making up a three decade time-series. The presentation will cover the architecture of OceanXtremes, parallelization of the climatology computation and anomaly detection algorithms using Spark, example results for SST and other time-series, and parallel performance metrics.

Does Terrestrial Drought Explain Global CO2 Flux Anomalies Induced by El Nino?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwalm. C. R.; Williams, C. A.; Schaefer, K.; Baker, I.; Collatz, G. J.; Roedenbeck, C.

2011-01-01

The El Nino Southern Oscillation is the dominant year-to-year mode of global climate variability. El Nino effects on terrestrial carbon cycling are mediated by associated climate anomalies, primarily drought, influencing fire emissions and biotic net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Here we evaluate whether El Nino produces a consistent response from the global carbon cycle. We apply a novel bottom-up approach to estimating global NEE anomalies based on FLUXNET data using land cover maps and weather reanalysis. We analyze 13 years (1997-2009) of globally gridded observational NEE anomalies derived from eddy covariance flux data, remotely-sensed fire emissions at the monthly time step, and NEE estimated from an atmospheric transport inversion. We evaluate the overall consistency of biospheric response to El Nino and, more generally, the link between global CO2 flux anomalies and El Nino-induced drought. Our findings, which are robust relative to uncertainty in both methods and time-lags in response, indicate that each event has a different spatial signature with only limited spatial coherence in Amazonia, Australia and southern Africa. For most regions, the sign of response changed across El Nino events. Biotic NEE anomalies, across 5 El Nino events, ranged from -1.34 to +0.98 Pg Cyr(exp -1, whereas fire emissions anomalies were generally smaller in magnitude (ranging from -0.49 to +0.53 Pg C yr(exp -1). Overall drought does not appear to impose consistent terrestrial CO2 flux anomalies during El Ninos, finding large variation in globally integrated responses from 11.15 to +0.49 Pg Cyr(exp -1). Despite the significant correlation between the CO2 flux and El Nino indices, we find that El Nino events have, when globally integrated, both enhanced and weakened terrestrial sink strength, with no consistent response across events

Analysis of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies before the global M = 7.0+ earthquakes in 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Y. B.; Chen, P.; Zhang, S.; Chen, J. J.; Yan, F.; Peng, W. F.

2012-03-01

The pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies that occurred before the global M = 7.0+ earthquakes in 2010 are investigated using the total electron content (TEC) from the global ionosphere map (GIM). We analyze the possible causes of the ionospheric anomalies based on the space environment and magnetic field status. Results show that some anomalies are related to the earthquakes. By analyzing the time of occurrence, duration, and spatial distribution of these ionospheric anomalies, a number of new conclusions are drawn, as follows: earthquake-related ionospheric anomalies are not bound to appear; both positive and negative anomalies are likely to occur; and the earthquake-related ionospheric anomalies discussed in the current study occurred 0-2 days before the associated earthquakes and in the afternoon to sunset (i.e. between 12:00 and 20:00 local time). Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies occur mainly in areas near the epicenter. However, the maximum affected area in the ionosphere does not coincide with the vertical projection of the epicenter of the subsequent earthquake. The directions deviating from the epicenters do not follow a fixed rule. The corresponding ionospheric effects can also be observed in the magnetically conjugated region. However, the probability of the anomalies appearance and extent of the anomalies in the magnetically conjugated region are smaller than the anomalies near the epicenter. Deep-focus earthquakes may also exhibit very significant pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies.

Usefulness of AIRS-Derived OLR, Temperature, Water Vapor and Cloudiness Anomaly Trends for GCM Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molnar, Gyula I.; Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena F.

2010-01-01

Mainly due to their global nature, satellite observations can provide a very useful basis for GCM validations. In particular, satellite sounders such as AIRS provide 3-D spatial information (most useful for GCMs), so the question arises: can we use AIRS datasets for climate variability assessments? We show that the recent (September 2002 February 2010) CERES-observed negative trend in OLR of approx.-0.1 W/sq m/yr averaged over the globe is found in the AIRS OLR data as well. Most importantly, even minute details (down to 1 x 1 degree GCM-scale resolution) of spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS-retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over this time period are essentially the same. The correspondence can be seen even in the very large spatial variations of these trends with local values ranging from -2.6 W/sq m/yr to +3.0 W/sq m/yr in the tropics, for example. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate, and indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of other AIRS derived products as well. These products show that global and regional anomalies and trends of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over the last 7+ years are strongly influenced by EI-Nino-La Nina cycles . We have created climate parameter anomaly datasets using AIRS retrievals which can be compared directly with coupled GCM climate variability assessments. Moreover, interrelationships of these anomalies and trends should also be similar between the observed and GCM-generated datasets, and, in cases of discrepancies, GCM parameterizations could be improved based on the relationships observed in the data. First, we assess spatial "trends" of variability of climatic parameter anomalies [since anomalies relative to the seasonal cycle are good proxies of climate variability] at the common 1x1 degree GCM grid-scale by creating spatial anomaly "trends" based on the first 7+ years of AIRS Version 5 Leve13 data. We suggest that modelers should compare these with their (coupled) GCM's performance covering the same period. We evaluate temporal variability and interrelations of climatic anomalies on global to regional e.g., deep Tropical Hovmoller diagrams, El-Nino-related variability scales, and show the effects of El-Nino-La Nina activity on tropical anomalies and trends of water vapor cloud cover and OLR. For GCMs to be trusted highly for long-term climate change predictions, they should be able to reproduce findings similar to these. In summary, the AIRS-based climate variability analyses provide high quality, informative and physically plausible interrelationships among OLR, temperature, humidity and cloud cover both on the spatial and temporal scales. GCM validations can use these results even directly, e. g., by creating 1x1 degree trendmaps for the same period in coupled climate simulations.

The ground subsidence anomaly investigation around Ambala, India by InSAR and spatial analyses: Why and how the Ambala city behaves as the most significant subsidence region in the Northwest India?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Lin, S. Y.; Tsai, Y.; Singh, S.; Singh, T.

2017-12-01

A large ground deformation which may be caused by a significant groundwater depletion of the Northwest India Aquifer has been successfully observed throughout space geodesy techniques (Tsai et al, 2016). Employing advanced time-series ScanSAR InSAR analysis and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites data, it revealed 400-km wide huge ground deformation in and around Haryana. It was further notified that the Ambala city located in northern Haryana district shown the most significant ground subsidence with maximum cumulative deformation up to 0.2 meters within 3 years in contrast to the nearby cities such as Patiala and Chandigarh that did not present similar subsidence. In this study, we investigated the details of "Ambala Anomaly" employing advanced time-series InSAR and spatial analyses together with local geology and anthropogenic contexts and tried to identify the factors causing such a highly unique ground deformation pattern. To explore the pattern and trend of Ambala' subsidence, we integrated the time-series deformation results of both ascending L-band PALSAR-1 (Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar) from 2007/1 to 2011/1 and descending C-band ASAR (Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar) from 2008/9 to 2010/8 to process the 3D decomposition, expecting to reveal the asymmetric movement of the surface. In addition. The spatial analyses incorporating detected ground deformations and local economical/social factors were then applied for the interpretation of "Ambala Anomaly". The detailed interrelationship of driving factors of the "Ambala Anomaly" and the spatial pattern of corresponding ground subsidence will be further demonstrated. After all, we determined the uniqueness of Ambala subsidence possibly be driven by both anthropogenic behaviors including the rapid growth rate of population and constructing of industrial centers as well as the natural geological characteristics and sediment deposition.

AIRS-Observed Interrelationships of Anomaly Time-Series of Moist Process-Related Parameters and Inferred Feedback Values on Various Spatial Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molnar, Gyula I.; Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena

2011-01-01

In the beginning, a good measure of a GMCs performance was their ability to simulate the observed mean seasonal cycle. That is, a reasonable simulation of the means (i.e., small biases) and standard deviations of TODAY?S climate would suffice. Here, we argue that coupled GCM (CG CM for short) simulations of FUTURE climates should be evaluated in much more detail, both spatially and temporally. Arguably, it is not the bias, but rather the reliability of the model-generated anomaly time-series, even down to the [C]GCM grid-scale, which really matter. This statement is underlined by the social need to address potential REGIONAL climate variability, and climate drifts/changes in a manner suitable for policy decisions.

The influence of north Pacific atmospheric circulation on streamflow in the west

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, Daniel R.; Peterson, David H.

1989-01-01

The annual cycle and nonseasonal variability of streamflow over western North America and Hawaii is studied in terms of atmospheric forcing elements. This study uses several decades of monthly average streamflow beginning as early as the late 1800's over a network of 38 stations. In addition to a strong annual cycle in mean streamflow and its variance at most of the stations, there is also a distinct annual cycle in the autocorrelation of anomalies that is related to the interplay between the annual cycles of temperature and precipitation. Of particular importance to these lag effects is the well-known role of water stored as snow pack, which controls the delay between peak precipitation and peak flow and also introduces persistence into the nonseasonal streamflow anomalies, with time scales from 1 month to over 1 year. The degree to which streamflow is related to winter atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific and western North America is tested using correlations with time averaged, gridded sea level pressure (SLP), which begins in 1899. Streamflow fluctuations show significant large-scale correlations for the winter (December through February) mean SLP anomaly patterns over the North Pacific with maximum correlations ranging from 0.3 to about 0.6. For streams along the west coast corridor the circulation pattern associated with positive streamflow anomalies is low pressure centered off the coast to the west or northwest, indicative of increased winter storms and an anomalous westerly-to-southwesterly wind component. For streams in the interior positive streamflow anomalies are associated with a positive SLP anomaly stationed remotely over the central North Pacific, and with negative but generally weaker SLP anomalies locally. One important influence on streamflow variability is the strength of the Aleutian Low in winter. This is represented by the familiar Pacific-North America (PNA) index and also by an index defined herein the “CNP” (Central North Pacific). This index, beginning in 1899, is taken to be the average of the SLP anomaly south of the Aleutians and the western Gulf of Alaska. Correlations between PNA or CNP and regional anomalies reflect streamflow the alternations in strength and position of the mean North Pacific storm track entering North America as well as shifts in the trade winds over the subtropical North Pacific. Regions whose streamflow is best tuned to the PNA or CNP include coastal Alaska, the northwestern United States, and Hawaii; the latter two regions have the opposite sign anomaly as the former. The pattern of streamflow variations associated with El Niño is similar, but the El Niño signal also includes a tendency for greater than normal streamflow in the southwestern United States. These indices are significantly correlated with streamflow at one to two seasons in advance of the December–August period, which may allow modestly skillful forecasts. It is important to note that streamflow variability in some areas, such as British Columbia and California, does not respond consistently to these broad scale Pacific atmospheric circulation indices, but is related to regional atmospheric anomaly features over the eastern North Pacific. Spatially, streamflow anomalies are fairly well correlated over scales of several hundred kilometers. Inspection of the spatial anomalies of stream-flow in this study suggest an asymmetry in the spatial pattern of positive versus negative streamflow anomalies in the western United States: dry patterns have tended to be larger and more spatially coherent than wet patterns.

Understanding the interdecadal variabilities of East Asian summer precipitation: from a perspective of joint influence of oceanic forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.; Sun, X.; Yang, X. Q.

2017-12-01

East Asian summer precipitation (EASP) is highly complicated in both temporal and spatial variabilities at interdecadal time scales, with various time periods and anomalous spatial distribution patterns. The joint influences of three dominant interdecadal signals, i.e., Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM), are revealed to be responsible for most of the interdecadal variabilities of EASP in this study, which, however, are not the simply linear combinations of their individual climate effects. Specifically, when PDO and AMO are in antiphase, SST anomalies of the same signs appear in both North Pacific and North Atlantic, the Asian westerly jet (AWJ) is accelerated and acts as a waveguide, favoring a zonally orientated Rossby wave train from North Atlantic to northern East Asia across the mid-high latitude Eurasia. Correspondingly, interdecadal precipitation anomalies exhibit a meridional tripole mode over East China. When PDO and AMO are in phase with oppositely signed SST anomalies in North Pacific and North Atlantic, the waveguide mechanism doesn't work since AWJ is significantly reduced, and the Rossby wave train from North Atlantic travels to South Asia along the great circle path, causing anomalous Indian summer monsoon precipitation (ISMP). In turn, by triggering another Rossby wave trains along both the mid-latitudes and coastal regions of East Asia, the ISMP anomalies induce a meridional dipole mode of interdecadal precipitation anomalies over East China. Through the ISMP and the same dynamical processes, IOBM is more important for the interdecadal precipitation anomalies over northern East Asia.

A Spatially Constrained Multi-autoencoder Approach for Multivariate Geochemical Anomaly Recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lirong, C.; Qingfeng, G.; Renguang, Z.; Yihui, X.

2017-12-01

Separating and recognizing geochemical anomalies from the geochemical background is one of the key tasks in geochemical exploration. Many methods have been developed, such as calculating the mean ±2 standard deviation, and fractal/multifractal models. In recent years, deep autoencoder, a deep learning approach, have been used for multivariate geochemical anomaly recognition. While being able to deal with the non-normal distributions of geochemical concentrations and the non-linear relationships among them, this self-supervised learning method does not take into account the spatial heterogeneity of geochemical background and the uncertainty induced by the randomly initialized weights of neurons, leading to ineffective recognition of weak anomalies. In this paper, we introduce a spatially constrained multi-autoencoder (SCMA) approach for multivariate geochemical anomaly recognition, which includes two steps: spatial partitioning and anomaly score computation. The first step divides the study area into multiple sub-regions to segregate the geochemical background, by grouping the geochemical samples through K-means clustering, spatial filtering, and spatial constraining rules. In the second step, for each sub-region, a group of autoencoder neural networks are constructed with an identical structure but different initial weights on neurons. Each autoencoder is trained using the geochemical samples within the corresponding sub-region to learn the sub-regional geochemical background. The best autoencoder of a group is chosen as the final model for the corresponding sub-region. The anomaly score at each location can then be calculated as the euclidean distance between the observed concentrations and reconstructed concentrations of geochemical elements.The experiments using the geochemical data and Fe deposits in the southwestern Fujian province of China showed that our SCMA approach greatly improved the recognition of weak anomalies, achieving the AUC of 0.89, compared with the AUC of 0.77 using a single deep autoencoder approach.

Heat and Freshwater Convergence Anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean Inferred from Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, K. A.; Drushka, K.; Thompson, L.

2015-12-01

Observations of thermosteric and halosteric sea level from hydrographic data, ocean mass from GRACE and altimetric sea surface height are used to infer meridional heat transport (MHT) and freshwater convergence (FWC) anomalies for the Atlantic Ocean. An "unknown control" version of a Kalman filter in each of eight regions extracts smooth estimates of heat transport convergence (HTC) and FWC from discrepancies between the sea level response to monthly surface heat and freshwater fluxes and observed heat and freshwater content. The model is run for 1993-2014. Estimates of MHT anomalies are derived by summing the HTC from north to south and adding a spatially uniform, time-varying MHT derived from updated MHT estimates at 41N (Willis 2010). Estimated anomalies in MHT are comparable to those recently observed at the RAPID/MOCHA line at 26.5N. MHT estimates are relatively insensitive to the choice of heat flux products and are highly coherent spatially. MHT anomalies at 35S resemble estimates of Agulhas Leakage derived from altimeter (LeBars et al 2014) suggesting that the Indian Ocean is the source of the anomalous heat inflow. FWC estimates in the Atlantic Ocean (67N to 35S) resemble estimates of Atlantic river inflow (de Couet and Maurer, GRDC 2009). Increasing values of FWC after 2002 at a time when MHT was decreasing may indicate a feedback between the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and FWC that would accelerate the AMOC slowdown.

The memory of the accreting plate boundary and the continuity of fracture zones

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schouten, Hans; Klitgord, Kim D.

1982-01-01

A detailed aeromagnetic anomaly map of the Mesozoic seafloor-spreading lineations southwest of Bermuda reveals the dominant magnetic grain of the oceanic crust and the character of the accreting boundary at the time of crustal formation. The magnetic anomaly pattern is that of a series of elongate lobes perpendicular to the fracture zone (flowline) trends. The linear sets of magnetic anomaly peaks and troughs have narrow regions of reduced amplitude anomalies associated with the fracture zones. During the period of Mesozoic geomagnetic polarity reversals (when 1200 km of central North Atlantic seafloor formed), the Atlantic accreting boundary consisted of stationary, elongate, spreading center cells that maintained their independence even though sometimes only minor spatial offsets existed between cells. Normal oceanic crustal structure was formed in the spreading center cells, but structural anomalies and discontinuities characteristic of fracture zones were formed at their boundaries, which parallel flowlines of Mesozoic relative plate motion in the central North Atlantic. We suggest that the memory for a stationary pattern of independent spreading center cells resides in the young brittle lithosphere at the accreting boundary where the lithosphere is weakest; here, each spreading center cell independently goes through its cylce of stress buildup, stress release, and crustal accretion, after which its memory is refreshed. The temporal offset between the peaks of the accretionary activity that takes place within each cell may provide the mechanism for maintaining the independence of adjacent spreading center cells through times when no spatial offset between the cells exists.

Global Distribution and Variability of Surface Skin and Surface Air Temperatures as Depicted in the AIRS Version-6 Data Set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Lee, Jae N.; Iredell, Lena

2014-01-01

In this presentation, we will briefly describe the significant improvements made in the AIRS Version-6 retrieval algorithm, especially as to how they affect retrieved surface skin and surface air temperatures. The global distribution of seasonal 1:30 AM and 1:30 PM local time 12 year climatologies of Ts,a will be presented for the first time. We will also present the spatial distribution of short term 12 year anomaly trends of Ts,a at 1:30 AM and 1:30 PM, as well as the spatial distribution of temporal correlations of Ts,a with the El Nino Index. It will be shown that there are significant differences between the behavior of 1:30 AM and 1:30 PM Ts,a anomalies in some arid land areas.

Spatial and Temporal Coherence of SeaWiFS Chlorophyll Concentration Anomalies in the North Atlantic Bloom (1998-2005) Examined with Giovanni

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acker, James G.

2006-01-01

The availability of climatological chlorophyll-a concentration data products from the SeaWiFS mission spanning the eight-year mission period allowed the creation of a climatological anomaly analysis function in Giovanni, the GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization and ANalysis Infrastructure. This study utilizes the Giovanni anomaly analysis function to examine mesoscale anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean during the springtime North Atlantic Bloom. This examination indicates that areas exhibiting positive anomalies and areas exhibiting negative anomalies are coherent over significant spatial scales, with relatively abrupt boundaries between areas with positive and negative anomalies. Year-to-year variability in anomaly "intensity" can be caused by either variability in the temporal occurrence of the bloom peak or by variability in the peak chlorophyll concentration in a particular area. The study will also discuss the feasibility of combining chlorophyll anomaly analysis with other data types.

Time series of GNSS-derived ionospheric maps to detect anomalies as possible precursors of high magnitude earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbarella, M.; De Giglio, M.; Galeandro, A.; Mancini, F.

2012-04-01

The modification of some atmospheric physical properties prior to a high magnitude earthquake has been recently debated within the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere (LAI) Coupling model. Among this variety of phenomena the ionization of air at the higher level of the atmosphere, called ionosphere, is investigated in this work. Such a ionization occurrences could be caused by possible leaking of gases from earth crust and their presence was detected around the time of high magnitude earthquakes by several authors. However, the spatial scale and temporal domain over which such a disturbances come into evidence is still a controversial item. Even thought the ionospheric activity could be investigated by different methodologies (satellite or terrestrial measurements), we selected the production of ionospheric maps by the analysis of GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Data) data as possible way to detect anomalies prior of a seismic event over a wide area around the epicentre. It is well known that, in the GNSS sciences, the ionospheric activity could be probed by the analysis of refraction phenomena occurred on the dual frequency signals along the satellite to receiver path. The analysis of refraction phenomena affecting data acquired by the GNSS permanent trackers is able to produce daily to hourly maps representing the spatial distribution of the ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) as an index of the ionization degree in the upper atmosphere. The presence of large ionospheric anomalies could be therefore interpreted in the LAI Coupling model like a precursor signal of a strong earthquake, especially when the appearance of other different precursors (thermal anomalies and/or gas fluxes) could be detected. In this work, a six-month long series of ionospheric maps produced from GNSS data collected by a network of 49 GPS permanent stations distributed within an area around the city of L'Aquila (Abruzzi, Italy), where an earthquake (M = 6.3) occurred on April 6, 2009, were investigated. Basically, the proposed methodology is able to perform a time series analysis of the TEC maps and, eventually, define the spatial and temporal domains of ionospheric disturbances. This goal was achieved by a time series analysis of the spatial dataset able to compare a local pattern of ionospheric activity with its historical mean value and detect areas where the TEC content exhibits anomalous values. This data processing shows some 1 to 2 days long anomalies about 20 days before of the seismic event (confirming also results provided in recent studies by means of ionospheric soundings).

Observational Constraints on the Identification of Shallow Lunar Magmatism: Insights from Floor-Fractured Craters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jozwiak, L. M.; Head, J. W., III; Neumann, G. A.; Wilson, L.

2016-01-01

Floor-fractured craters are a class of lunar crater hypothesized to form in response to the emplacement of a shallow magmatic intrusion beneath the crater floor. The emplacement of a shallow magmatic body should result in a positive Bouguer anomaly relative to unaltered complex craters, a signal which is observed for the average Bouguer anomaly interior to the crater walls. We observe the Bouguer anomaly of floor-fractured craters on an individual basis using the unfiltered Bouguer gravity solution from GRAIL and also a degree 100-600 band-filtered Bouguer gravity solution. The low-magnitude of anomalies arising from shallow magmatic intrusions makes identification using unfiltered Bouguer gravity solutions inconclusive. The observed anomalies in the degree 100-600 Bouguer gravity solution are spatially heterogeneous, although there is spatial correlation between volcanic surface morphologies and positive Bouguer anomalies. We interpret these observations to mean that the spatial heterogeneity observed in the Bouguer signal is the result of variable degrees of magmatic degassing within the intrusions.

Disparity in rainfall trend and patterns among different regions: analysis of 158 years' time series of rainfall dataset across India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Saurav; Chakraborty, Debasish; Paul, Ranjit Kumar; Samanta, Sandipan; Singh, S. B.

2017-10-01

Rainfall anomaly during crop-growing season can have large impact on the agricultural output of a country, especially like India, where two-thirds of the crop land is rain-fed. In such situation, decreased agricultural production not only challenges food security of the country but directly and immediately hits the livelihood of its farming community. In a vast country like India, rainfall or its anomalies hardly follow a specific pattern, rather it is having high variability in spatial domain. This study focused on the trends of national and regional rainfall anomalies (wetness/dryness) along with their interrelationship using time series data of past 158 years. The significant reducing wetness trend (p < 0.05) over north mountainous India was prominent with an increasing trend over southern peninsular India (p < 0.10). However, long-term annual wetness was increasing over entire peninsular India. The results of change point tests indicate that major abrupt changes occurred between early to mid-twentieth century having regional variations. The regional interrelationship was studied using principal component, hierarchical clustering, and pair-wise difference test, which clearly indicated a significantly different pattern in rainfall anomalies for north east India (p = 0.022), north central India (p = 0.022), and north mountainous India (p = 0.011) from that of the all India. Result of this study affirmed high spatial variability in rainfall anomaly and most importantly established the unalike pattern in trends of regional rainfall vis-à-vis national level, ushering towards paradigm shift in rainfall forecast from country scale to regional scale for pragmatic planning.

Observing anomalies in the deglaciation of Greenland by GRACE and GNET GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knudsen, Per; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas

2017-04-01

Between the start of 2003 and the middle 2013, the total mass of ice in Greenland declined at an accelerating rate, and this rate increases nearly constantly of about 24 Gt per year. Then, a dramatic reversal occurred, and almost no additional ice mass was lost in the subsequent two years. In 2015 the melting had resumed reducing the ice mass in Greenland. We use observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and a network of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers to study both the decade of accelerating ice loss, and the subsequent 'pause', focusing on the space-time structure of changes in ice mass. We use a spatial basis set of spherical Legendre polynomials, and assume that the temporal variation in mass can be expressed using a 4-term Fourier series (i.e. an annual cycle) superimposed on a polynomial in time (i.e. a trend). We show that the spatial pattern of the sustained, decade-long acceleration and of the mass anomaly associated with the melt anomalies are very similar, and so manifest the footprint of the ice sheet's sensitivity to climate change at the wavelengths resolved by GRACE.

Observing the 2013 and other anomalies in the deglaciation of Greenland by GRACE and GNET GPS.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knudsen, P.; Madsen, F. B.; Bevis, M. G.; Khan, S. A.

2016-12-01

Between the start of 2003 and the middle 2013, the total mass of ice in Greenland declined at an accelerating rate, and this rate increases nearly constantly of about 24 Gt per year. Then, a dramatic reversal occurred, and almost no additional ice mass was lost in the subsequent two years. In 2015 the melting had resumed reducing the ice mass in Greenland. We use observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and a network of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers to study both the decade of accelerating ice loss, and the subsequent `pause', focusing on the space-time structure of changes in ice mass. We use a spatial basis set of spherical Legendre polynomials, and assume that the temporal variation in mass can be expressed using a 4-term Fourier series (i.e. an annual cycle) superimposed on a polynomial in time (i.e. a trend). We show that the spatial pattern of the sustained, decade-long acceleration and of the mass anomaly associated with the melt anomalies are very similar, and so manifest the footprint of the ice sheet's sensitivity to climate change at the wavelengths resolved by GRACE.

Ionospheric total electron content seismo-perturbation after Japan's March 11, 2011, M=9.0 Tohoku earthquake under a geomagnetic storm; a nonlinear principal component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Jyh-Woei

2012-10-01

Nonlinear principal component analysis (NLPCA) is implemented to analyze the spatial pattern of total electron content (TEC) anomalies 3 hours after Japan's Tohoku earthquake that occurred at 05:46:23 on 11 March, 2011 (UTC) ( M w =9). A geomagnetic storm was in progress at the time of the earthquake. NLPCA and TEC data processing were conducted on the global ionospheric map (GIM) for the time between 08:30 to 09:30 UTC, about 3 hours after this devastating earthquake and ensuing tsunami. Analysis results show stark earthquake-associated TEC anomalies that are widespread, and appear to have been induced by two acoustic gravity waves due to strong shaking (vertical acoustic wave) and the generation of the tsunami (horizontal Rayleigh mode gravity wave). The TEC anomalies roughly fit the initial mainshock and movement of the tsunami. Observation of the earthquake-associated TEC anomalies does not appear to be affected by a contemporaneous geomagnetic storm.

Transient ice mass variations over Greenland detected by the combination of GPS and GRACE data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, B.; Liu, L.; Khan, S. A.; van Dam, T. M.; Zhang, E.

2017-12-01

Over the past decade, the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been undergoing significant warming and ice mass loss. Such mass loss was not always a steady process but had substantial temporal and spatial variabilities. Here we apply multi-channel singular spectral analysis to crustal deformation time series measured at about 50 Global Positioning System (GPS) stations mounted on bedrock around the Greenland coast and mass changes inferred from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to detect transient changes in ice mass balance over the GrIS. We detect two transient anomalies: one is a negative melting anomaly (Anomaly 1) that peaked around 2010; the other is a positive melting anomaly (Anomaly 2) that peaked between 2012 and 2013. The GRACE data show that both anomalies caused significant mass changes south of 74°N but negligible changes north of 74°N. Both anomalies caused the maximum mass change in southeast GrIS, followed by in west GrIS near Jakobshavn. Our results also show that the mass change caused by Anomaly 1 first reached the maximum in late 2009 in the southeast GrIS and then migrated to west GrIS. However, in Anomaly 2, the southeast GrIS was the last place that reached the maximum mass change in early 2013 and the west GrIS near Jakobshavn was the second latest place that reached the maximum mass change. Most of the GPS data show similar spatiotemporal patterns as those obtained from the GRACE data. However, some GPS time series show discrepancies in either space or time, because of data gaps and different sensitivities of mass loading change. Namely, loading deformation measured by GPS can be significantly affected by local dynamical mass changes, which, yet, has little impact on GRACE observations.

Atmospheric circulation patterns and spatial climatic variations in Beringia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, Cary J.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Patricia M.

1998-08-01

Analyses of more than 40 years of climatic data reveal intriguing spatial variations in climatic patterns for Beringia (North-eastern Siberia and Alaska), aiding the understanding of the hierarchy of climatic controls that operate at different spatial scales within the Arctic. A synoptic climatology, using a subjective classification methodology on January and July sea level pressure, and July 500 hPa height anomaly patterns, identified 13 major atmospheric circulation patterns (26 pairs consisting of 13 synoptic/temperature and 13 synoptic/precipitation comparisons) that occur over Beringia. Composite anomaly maps of circulation, temperature, and precipitation described the spatial variability of surface climatic responses to circulation. Results indicate that nine synoptic pairs yield homogeneous surface climatic anomaly patterns throughout most of Beringia. However, many of the surface climatic responses illustrate heterogeneous anomaly patterns as a result of variations in circulation controls, such as troughing over East Asia and the Pacific subtropical high superimposed over topography, with small shifts in atmospheric circulation dramatically altering spatial variations of anomaly patterns. Distinctive contrasts in climatic responses, as suggested from ten synoptic pairs, are clearly evident for Western Beringia versus Eastern Beringia. These results offer important implications for scholars interested in assessing late Quaternary climatic change in the region from interannual to millennial timescales.

Research for Key Techniques of Geophysical Recognition System of Hydrocarbon-induced Magnetic Anomalies Based on Hydrocarbon Seepage Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, L.; Hao, T.; Zhao, B.

2009-12-01

Hydrocarbon seepage effects can cause magnetic alteration zones in near surface, and the magnetic anomalies induced by the alteration zones can thus be used to locate oil-gas potential regions. In order to reduce the inaccuracy and multi-resolution of the hydrocarbon anomalies recognized only by magnetic data, and to meet the requirement of integrated management and sythetic analysis of multi-source geoscientfic data, it is necessary to construct a recognition system that integrates the functions of data management, real-time processing, synthetic evaluation, and geologic mapping. In this paper research for the key techniques of the system is discussed. Image processing methods can be applied to potential field images so as to make it easier for visual interpretation and geological understanding. For gravity or magnetic images, the anomalies with identical frequency-domain characteristics but different spatial distribution will reflect differently in texture and relevant textural statistics. Texture is a description of structural arrangements and spatial variation of a dataset or an image, and has been applied in many research fields. Textural analysis is a procedure that extracts textural features by image processing methods and thus obtains a quantitative or qualitative description of texture. When the two kinds of anomalies have no distinct difference in amplitude or overlap in frequency spectrum, they may be distinguishable due to their texture, which can be considered as textural contrast. Therefore, for the recognition system we propose a new “magnetic spots” recognition method based on image processing techniques. The method can be divided into 3 major steps: firstly, separate local anomalies caused by shallow, relatively small sources from the total magnetic field, and then pre-process the local magnetic anomaly data by image processing methods such that magnetic anomalies can be expressed as points, lines and polygons with spatial correlation, which includes histogram-equalization based image display, object recognition and extraction; then, mine the spatial characteristics and correlations of the magnetic anomalies using textural statistics and analysis, and study the features of known anomalous objects (closures, hydrocarbon-bearing structures, igneous rocks, etc.) in the same research area; finally, classify the anomalies, cluster them according to their similarity, and predict hydrocarbon induced “magnetic spots” combined with geologic, drilling and rock core data. The system uses the ArcGIS as the secondary development platform, inherits the basic functions of the ArcGIS, and develops two main sepecial functional modules, the module for conventional potential-field data processing methods and the module for feature extraction and enhancement based on image processing and analysis techniques. The system can be applied to realize the geophysical detection and recognition of near-surface hydrocarbon seepage anomalies, provide technical support for locating oil-gas potential regions, and promote geophysical data processing and interpretation to advance more efficiently.

The Interrelationship Between Temperature Changes in the Free Atmosphere and Sea Surface Temperature Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newell, Reginald E.; Wu, Zhong-Xiang

1992-03-01

Fields of sea surface temperature anomalies from the Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas (GOSTA) and microwave sounding measurements (MSU) of temperature in the troposphere are examined separately and together for the 1979-1988 period. Global correlation patterns of both sets of fields are investigated at a range of leads and lags up to 6 months and exhibit a wide range of correlation structure. There are regions, such as the tropical eastern Pacific, where sea surface temperature anomalies persist for several months and are associated with local air temperature anomalies; in this particular example, about 0.7°C air temperature change is associated with a 1.0°C sea temperature change. By contrast, some ocean regions and many atmospheric regions, mostly in middle and high latitude, show only local spatial correlations that disappear completely in a month or two. The most persistent and extensive spatial correlation patterns are quite different for the sea and the air. In the sea the "butterfly" pattern of the Pacific is the most important and reverses sign between the eastern equatorial Pacific and the western Pacific and subtropics. In the warm phase the temperature anomalies associated with this pattern are similar to the correlation pattern. For the atmosphere the main correlation pattern is an equatorial belt with no sign changes in the tropics; this pattern is linked to the oceanic El Niño mode. In the warm phase the temperature anomalies show peak values on both sides of the equator in the eastern and central Pacific. Based mainly on the results from the spatial patterns, certain regions are selected for intercomparison of time series. In the tropical eastern Pacific the sea leads the air by about a month while in the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio regions the sequence is reversed.

Tectonically Induced Anomalies Without Large Earthquake Occurrences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Zheming; Wang, Guangcai; Liu, Chenglong; Che, Yongtai

2017-06-01

In this study, we documented a case involving large-scale macroscopic anomalies in the Xichang area, southwestern Sichuan Province, China, from May to June of 2002, after which no major earthquake occurred. During our field survey in 2002, we found that the timing of the high-frequency occurrence of groundwater anomalies was in good agreement with those of animal anomalies. Spatially, the groundwater and animal anomalies were distributed along the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone. Furthermore, the groundwater level was elevated in the northwest part of the Zemuhe fault and depressed in the southeast part of the Zemuhe fault zone, with a border somewhere between Puge and Ningnan Counties. Combined with microscopic groundwater, geodetic and seismic activity data, we infer that the anomalies in the Xichang area were the result of increasing tectonic activity in the Sichuan-Yunnan block. In addition, groundwater data may be used as a good indicator of tectonic activity. This case tells us that there is no direct relationship between an earthquake and these anomalies. In most cases, the vast majority of the anomalies, including microscopic and macroscopic anomalies, are caused by tectonic activity. That is, these anomalies could occur under the effects of tectonic activity, but they do not necessarily relate to the occurrence of earthquakes.

A hyperspectral imagery anomaly detection algorithm based on local three-dimensional orthogonal subspace projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xing; Wen, Gongjian

2015-10-01

Anomaly detection (AD) becomes increasingly important in hyperspectral imagery analysis with many practical applications. Local orthogonal subspace projection (LOSP) detector is a popular anomaly detector which exploits local endmembers/eigenvectors around the pixel under test (PUT) to construct background subspace. However, this subspace only takes advantage of the spectral information, but the spatial correlat ion of the background clutter is neglected, which leads to the anomaly detection result sensitive to the accuracy of the estimated subspace. In this paper, a local three dimensional orthogonal subspace projection (3D-LOSP) algorithm is proposed. Firstly, under the jointly use of both spectral and spatial information, three directional background subspaces are created along the image height direction, the image width direction and the spectral direction, respectively. Then, the three corresponding orthogonal subspaces are calculated. After that, each vector along three direction of the local cube is projected onto the corresponding orthogonal subspace. Finally, a composite score is given through the three direction operators. In 3D-LOSP, the anomalies are redefined as the target not only spectrally different to the background, but also spatially distinct. Thanks to the addition of the spatial information, the robustness of the anomaly detection result has been improved greatly by the proposed 3D-LOSP algorithm. It is noteworthy that the proposed algorithm is an expansion of LOSP and this ideology can inspire many other spectral-based anomaly detection methods. Experiments with real hyperspectral images have proved the stability of the detection result.

Spatial and temporal anomalies of soil gas in northern Taiwan and its tectonic and seismic implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Ching-Chou; Yang, Tsanyao Frank; Chen, Cheng-Hong; Lee, Lou-Chuang; Wu, Yih-Min; Liu, Tsung-Kwei; Walia, Vivek; Kumar, Arvind; Lai, Tzu-Hua

2017-11-01

In this paper, we study (1) the spatial anomalies and (2) the temporal anomalies of soil gas in northern Taiwan. The spatial anomalies of soil gas are related to tectonic faults, while the temporal anomalies of soil gas are associated with pre-earthquake activities. Detailed soil gas sampling was systematically performed, and the analysis of the collected gas species shows that high helium and nitrogen concentrations appear in samples from specific sites, which coincide with the structural setting of the area studied. This analysis indicates the possibility of using these soil gases to determine fault zones in the studied area. Based on the soil gas data, a station (Tapingti) for automatic soil gas monitoring was constructed on an appropriate site at the fault zone. Some anomalous high radon concentrations at certain times can be identified from the dataset, which was generated by the continuous monitoring of soil gas for over a year. Notably, many of these anomalies were observed several hours to a few days before the earthquakes (ML > 3) that occurred in northern Taiwan. By combining the information of epicenters and fault plane solutions of these earthquakes, we find that the shallow earthquakes (<15 km) were mainly strike-slip and normal-type earthquakes, and concentrated within a distance of 30 km to the monitoring site (Group A). The deep earthquakes (>20 km) were mainly thrust-type earthquakes and distributed in greater distances (>45 km) east of the monitoring site (Group B). Such focal mechanisms of earthquakes suggest an extensional and compressional structural domain in the continental crust for Group A and Group B earthquakes, respectively. It is suggested that the pre-earthquake activities associated with the seismicity of Group B may be transmitted along the major decollement in the region below the Tapingti station, leading to the observed soil gas enhancements.

Identifying Anomalies in Gravitational Lens Time Delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Congdon, Arthur B.; Keeton, C. R.; Nordgren, C. E.

2009-05-01

Gravitational lensing has become a powerful probe of cold dark matter substructure. Earlier work using anomalous flux ratios in four-image quasar lenses has shown that lensing is sensitive to substructure which raises the exciting prospect of constraining the mass function and spatial distribution of dark matter satellites in galaxies. We examine the ability of gravitational lens time delays to reveal complex structure in lens potentials. We use Monte Carlo simulations to determine the range of time delays that can be produced by realistic smooth lens models consisting of isothermal ellipsoid galaxies with tidal shear. We can then identify outliers as "time-delay anomalies." We find evidence for anomalies in close image pairs in the cusp lenses RX J1131-1231 and B1422+231. The anomalies in RX J1131-1231 provide strong evidence for substructure in the lens potential, while at this point the apparent anomalies in B1422+231 mainly indicate that the time delay measurements need to be improved. We also find evidence for time-delay anomalies in larger-separation image pairs in four additional lenses. We suggest that these anomalies are caused by some combination of substructure and a complex lens environment. Our work argues for a large sample of strong lenses with precisely-measured time delays. The first of these objectives will be readily achievable as the next generation of optical and radio telescopes come online, while the second will require a dedicated one-meter class space-based observatory. Meeting these goals will make it possible to examine the properties of dark matter on sub-galactic scales, which is essential for distinguishing among the various dark matter candidates from particle physics. Part of this work was funded by NSF grant AST-0747311. ABC is currently supported by an appointment to the NASA Postdoctoral Program at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, administered by Oak Ridge Associated Universities through a contract with NASA.

Spatial association analysis between hydrocarbon fields and sedimentary residual magnetic anomalies using Weights of Evidence: An example from the Triassic Province of Algeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allek, Karim; Boubaya, Djamel; Bouguern, Abderrahmane; Hamoudi, Mohamed

2016-12-01

The presence of near-surface magnetic anomalies over oil and gas accumulations and their contribution to exploration remain somewhat controversial despite encouraging results and an improved understanding of genetic links between hydrocarbon seepage-induced alterations and near-surface magnetic minerals. This controversy is likely to remain since the cause of shallow-sourced sedimentary magnetic anomalies may well be microseepage related, but could also result from other sources such as cultural features and detrital magnetite. The definite way of discriminating between them remains a challenge. In this paper we examine means to deal with this particular purpose using a Bayesian technique known as 'Weights-of-Evidence'. The technique is implemented in GIS to explore spatial associations between known hydrocarbon fields within the central Triassic province of Algeria and sedimentary residual magnetic anomalies. We use the results to show possible application of the method to the recognition of some characteristics (amplitude and width) of anomalies assumed to be induced by hydrocarbon microseepages. Our results reveal strong spatial association with certain typical class of anomalies, confirming therefore hypothesis that hydrocarbon microseepages may result in detectable magnetic anomalies. It is possible to use the anomalies occurring outside the known gas and oil fields to make informed decisions in the selection of new targets for more detailed hydrocarbon exploration.

Multi-sensor Integration of Space and Ground Observations of Pre-earthquake Anomalies Associated with M6.0, August 24, 2014 Napa, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouzounov, Dimitar; Tramutoli, Valerio; Pulinets, Sergey; Liu, Tiger; Filizzola, Carolina; Genzano, Nicola; Lisi, Mariano; Petrov, Leonid; Kafatos, Menas

2015-04-01

We integrate multiple space-born and ground sensors for monitoring pre-earthquake geophysical anomalies that can provide significant early notification for earthquakes higher than M5.5 worldwide. The latest M6.0 event of August 24, 2014 in South Napa, California generated pre-earthquake signatures during our outgoing tests for California, and an experimental warning was documented about 17 days in advance. We process in controlled environment different satellite and ground data for California (and several other test areas) by using: a) data from the NPOES sensors recording OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) in the infrared; b) 2/GNSS, FORMOSAT (GPS/TEC); c) Earth Observing System assimilation models from NASA; d) ground-based gas observations and meteorological data; e) TIR (Thermal Infrared) data from geostationary satellite (GOES). On Aug 4th, we detected (prospectively) a large anomaly of OLR transient field at the TOA over Northern California. The location was shifted in the northeast direction about 150 km from the Aug 23rd epicentral area. Compared to the reference field of August 2004 to 2014 the hotspot anomaly was the largest energy flux anomaly over the entire continental United States at this time. Based on the temporal and spatial estimates of the anomaly, on August 4th we issued an internal warning for a M5.5+ earthquake in Northern California within the next 1-4 weeks. TIR retrospective analysis showed significant (spatially extended and temporally persistent) sequences of TIR anomalies starting August 1st just in the future epicenter area and approximately in the same area affected by OLR anomalies in the following days. GPS/TEC retrospective analysis based on GIM and TGIM products show anomalies TEC variations 1-3 days, over region north form the Napa earthquake epicenter. The calculated index of atmospheric chemical potential based on the NASA numerical Assimilation weather model GEOS5 indicates for abnormal variations near the epicentral area days before the quake; Our real-time and post-event integration of several atmospheric parameters from satellite and ground observations during the M6.0 on 08.24.2014 in Napa California demonstrated the synergy of related variations of these parameters implying their connection with the earthquake preparation process.

Exploring the combined effects of the Arctic Oscillation and ENSO on the wintertime climate over East Asia using self-organizing maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wenyu; Chen, Ruyan; Yang, Zifan; Wang, Bin; Ma, Wenqian

2017-09-01

To examine the combined effects of the different spatial patterns of the Arctic Oscillation (AO)-related sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the wintertime surface temperature anomalies over East Asia, a nonlinear method based on self-organizing maps is employed. Investigation of identified regimes reveals that the AO can affect East Asian temperature anomalies when there are significant SLP anomalies over the Arctic Ocean and northern parts of Eurasian continent. Analogously, ENSO is found to affect East Asian temperature anomalies when significant SST anomalies are present over the tropical central Pacific. The regimes with the warmest and coldest temperature anomalies over East Asia are both associated with the negative phase of the AO. The ENSO-activated, Pacific-East Asian teleconnection pattern could affect the higher latitude continental regions when the impact of the AO is switched off. When the spatial patterns of the AO and ENSO have significant, but opposite, impacts on the coastal winds, no obvious temperature anomalies can be observed over south China. Further, the circulation state with nearly the same AO and Niño3 indices may drive rather different responses in surface temperature over East Asia. The well-known continuous weakening (recovery) of the East Asian winter monsoon that occurred around 1988 (2009) can be attributed to the transitions of the spatial patterns of the SLP anomalies over the Arctic Ocean and Eurasian continent, through their modulation on the occurrences of the Ural and central Siberian blocking events.

Statistical Analysis of TEC Anomalies Prior to M6.0+ Earthquakes During 2003-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Fuying; Su, Fanfan; Lin, Jian

2018-04-01

There are many studies on the anomalous variations of the ionospheric TEC prior to large earthquakes. However, whether or not the morphological characteristics of the TEC anomalies in the daytime and at night are different is rarely studied. In the present paper, based on the total electron content (TEC) data from the global ionosphere map (GIM), we carry out a statistical survey on the spatial-temporal distribution of TEC anomalies before 1339 global M6.0+ earthquakes during 2003-2014. After excluding the interference of geomagnetic disturbance, the temporal and spatial distributions of ionospheric TEC anomalies prior to the earthquakes in the daytime and at night are investigated and compared. Except that the nighttime occurrence rates of the pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies (PEIAs) are higher than those in the daytime, our analysis has not found any statistically significant difference in the spatial-temporal distribution of PEIAs in the daytime and at night. Moreover, the occurrence rates of pre-earthquake ionospheric TEC both positive anomalies and negative anomalies at night tend to increase slightly with the earthquake magnitude. Thus, we suggest that monitoring the ionospheric TEC changes at night might be a clue to reveal the relation between ionospheric disturbances and seismic activities.

Statistical seismo-ionospheric precursors of M7.0+ earthquakes in Circum-Pacific seismic belt by GPS TEC measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wang; Yue, Jianping; Guo, Jinyun; Yang, Yang; Zou, Bin; Shen, Yi; Zhang, Kefei

2018-03-01

The Circum-Pacific seismic belt is the region heavily affected by earthquakes in the world. The relationship between earthquake (e.g., the geographic location, occurrence time, magnitude, and focal depth) and ionospheric anomalies in the belt was investigated using 100 M7.0+ earthquakes during 2006-2015. The ground-based GPS measurements and global ionosphere map (GIM) data were used for the analyses of the ionospheric variations preceding the earthquakes. The results indicated that the occurrence rate of total electron content (TEC) anomalies was proportional to the magnitude and inversely proportional to the focal depth to a certain degree, and the occurrence frequency of anomalies had a rising trend with the days getting close to the main shock. The occurrence rate of TEC anomalies in the Southern hemisphere was larger than that in the Northern hemisphere. Besides, the spatial characteristics of TEC anomalies showed that the anomalies in low-middle latitudes did not coincide with the epicenter, sometimes the anomalies were also observed in the corresponding conjugated region. However, the TEC anomalies in the high latitude usually appeared around the epicenter and within the seismogenic zone while no TEC anomalies appeared in the conjugated area. These results may have potential applications to the earthquake prediction in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt.

Novel Hyperspectral Anomaly Detection Methods Based on Unsupervised Nearest Regularized Subspace

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Z.; Chen, Y.; Tan, K.; Du, P.

2018-04-01

Anomaly detection has been of great interest in hyperspectral imagery analysis. Most conventional anomaly detectors merely take advantage of spectral and spatial information within neighboring pixels. In this paper, two methods of Unsupervised Nearest Regularized Subspace-based with Outlier Removal Anomaly Detector (UNRSORAD) and Local Summation UNRSORAD (LSUNRSORAD) are proposed, which are based on the concept that each pixel in background can be approximately represented by its spatial neighborhoods, while anomalies cannot. Using a dual window, an approximation of each testing pixel is a representation of surrounding data via a linear combination. The existence of outliers in the dual window will affect detection accuracy. Proposed detectors remove outlier pixels that are significantly different from majority of pixels. In order to make full use of various local spatial distributions information with the neighboring pixels of the pixels under test, we take the local summation dual-window sliding strategy. The residual image is constituted by subtracting the predicted background from the original hyperspectral imagery, and anomalies can be detected in the residual image. Experimental results show that the proposed methods have greatly improved the detection accuracy compared with other traditional detection method.

A Spatial-Spectral Approach for Visualization of Vegetation Stress Resulting from Pipeline Leakage.

PubMed

Van derWerff, Harald; Van der Meijde, Mark; Jansma, Fokke; Van der Meer, Freek; Groothuis, Gert Jan

2008-06-04

Hydrocarbon leakage into the environment has large economic and environmental impact. Traditional methods for investigating seepages and their resulting pollution, such as drilling, are destructive, time consuming and expensive. Remote sensing is an efficient tool that offers a non-destructive investigation method. Optical remote sensing has been extensively tested for exploration of onshore hydrocarbon reservoirs and detection of hydrocarbons at the Earth's surface. In this research, we investigate indirect manifestations of pipeline leakage by way of visualizing vegetation anomalies in airborne hyperspectral imagery. Agricultural land-use causes a heterogeneous landcover; variation in red edge position between fields was much larger than infield red edge position variation that could be related to hydrocarbon pollution. A moving and growing kernel procedure was developed to normalzie red edge values relative to values of neighbouring pixels to enhance pollution related anomalies in the image. Comparison of the spatial distribution of anomalies with geochemical data obtained by drilling showed that 8 out of 10 polluted sites were predicted correctly while 2 out of 30 sites that were predicted clean were actually polluted.

A Spatial-Spectral Approach for Visualization of Vegetation Stress Resulting from Pipeline Leakage

PubMed Central

van der Werff, Harald; van der Meijde, Mark; Jansma, Fokke; van der Meer, Freek; Groothuis, Gert Jan

2008-01-01

Hydrocarbon leakage into the environment has large economic and environmental impact. Traditional methods for investigating seepages and their resulting pollution, such as drilling, are destructive, time consuming and expensive. Remote sensing is an efficient tool that offers a non-destructive investigation method. Optical remote sensing has been extensively tested for exploration of onshore hydrocarbon reservoirs and detection of hydrocarbons at the Earth's surface. In this research, we investigate indirect manifestations of pipeline leakage by way of visualizing vegetation anomalies in airborne hyperspectral imagery. Agricultural land-use causes a heterogeneous landcover; variation in red edge position between fields was much larger than infield red edge position variation that could be related to hydrocarbon pollution. A moving and growing kernel procedure was developed to normalzie red edge values relative to values of neighbouring pixels to enhance pollution related anomalies in the image. Comparison of the spatial distribution of anomalies with geochemical data obtained by drilling showed that 8 out of 10 polluted sites were predicted correctly while 2 out of 30 sites that were predicted clean were actually polluted. PMID:27879905

Evaluation of Anomaly Detection Method Based on Pattern Recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fontugne, Romain; Himura, Yosuke; Fukuda, Kensuke

The number of threats on the Internet is rapidly increasing, and anomaly detection has become of increasing importance. High-speed backbone traffic is particularly degraded, but their analysis is a complicated task due to the amount of data, the lack of payload data, the asymmetric routing and the use of sampling techniques. Most anomaly detection schemes focus on the statistical properties of network traffic and highlight anomalous traffic through their singularities. In this paper, we concentrate on unusual traffic distributions, which are easily identifiable in temporal-spatial space (e.g., time/address or port). We present an anomaly detection method that uses a pattern recognition technique to identify anomalies in pictures representing traffic. The main advantage of this method is its ability to detect attacks involving mice flows. We evaluate the parameter set and the effectiveness of this approach by analyzing six years of Internet traffic collected from a trans-Pacific link. We show several examples of detected anomalies and compare our results with those of two other methods. The comparison indicates that the only anomalies detected by the pattern-recognition-based method are mainly malicious traffic with a few packets.

Spatio-Temporal Variability of Groundwater Storage in India

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhanja, Soumendra; Rodell, Matthew; Li, Bailing; Mukherjee, Abhijit

2016-01-01

Groundwater level measurements from 3907 monitoring wells, distributed within 22 major river basins of India, are assessed to characterize their spatial and temporal variability. Ground water storage (GWS) anomalies (relative to the long-term mean) exhibit strong seasonality, with annual maxima observed during the monsoon season and minima during pre-monsoon season. Spatial variability of GWS anomalies increases with the extent of measurements, following the power law relationship, i.e., log-(spatial variability) is linearly dependent on log-(spatial extent).In addition, the impact of well spacing on spatial variability and the power law relationship is investigated. We found that the mean GWS anomaly sampled at a 0.25 degree grid scale closes to unweighted average over all wells. The absolute error corresponding to each basin grows with increasing scale, i.e., from 0.25 degree to 1 degree. It was observed that small changes in extent could create very large changes in spatial variability at large grid scales. Spatial variability of GWS anomaly has been found to vary with climatic conditions. To our knowledge, this is the first study of the effects of well spacing on groundwater spatial variability. The results may be useful for interpreting large scale groundwater variations from unevenly spaced or sparse groundwater well observations or for siting and prioritizing wells in a network for groundwater management. The output of this study could be used to maintain a cost effective groundwater monitoring network in the study region and the approach can also be used in other parts of the globe.

Spatio-temporal variability of groundwater storage in India.

PubMed

Bhanja, Soumendra N; Rodell, Matthew; Li, Bailing; Mukherjee, Abhijit

2017-01-01

Groundwater level measurements from 3907 monitoring wells, distributed within 22 major river basins of India, are assessed to characterize their spatial and temporal variability. Groundwater storage (GWS) anomalies (relative to the long-term mean) exhibit strong seasonality, with annual maxima observed during the monsoon season and minima during pre-monsoon season. Spatial variability of GWS anomalies increases with the extent of measurements, following the power law relationship, i.e., log-(spatial variability) is linearly dependent on log-(spatial extent). In addition, the impact of well spacing on spatial variability and the power law relationship is investigated. We found that the mean GWS anomaly sampled at a 0.25 degree grid scale closes to unweighted average over all wells. The absolute error corresponding to each basin grows with increasing scale, i.e., from 0.25 degree to 1 degree. It was observed that small changes in extent could create very large changes in spatial variability at large grid scales. Spatial variability of GWS anomaly has been found to vary with climatic conditions. To our knowledge, this is the first study of the effects of well spacing on groundwater spatial variability. The results may be useful for interpreting large scale groundwater variations from unevenly spaced or sparse groundwater well observations or for siting and prioritizing wells in a network for groundwater management. The output of this study could be used to maintain a cost effective groundwater monitoring network in the study region and the approach can also be used in other parts of the globe.

Comparison of U-spatial statistics and C-A fractal models for delineating anomaly patterns of porphyry-type Cu geochemical signatures in the Varzaghan district, NW Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghezelbash, Reza; Maghsoudi, Abbas

2018-05-01

The delineation of populations of stream sediment geochemical data is a crucial task in regional exploration surveys. In this contribution, uni-element stream sediment geochemical data of Cu, Au, Mo, and Bi have been subjected to two reliable anomaly-background separation methods, namely, the concentration-area (C-A) fractal and the U-spatial statistics methods to separate geochemical anomalies related to porphyry-type Cu mineralization in northwest Iran. The quantitative comparison of the delineated geochemical populations using the modified success-rate curves revealed the superiority of the U-spatial statistics method over the fractal model. Moreover, geochemical maps of investigated elements revealed strongly positive correlations between strong anomalies and Oligocene-Miocene intrusions in the study area. Therefore, follow-up exploration programs should focus on these areas.

Consequences of environmental and biological variances for range margins: a spatially explicit theoretical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malanson, G. P.; DeRose, R. J.; Bekker, M. F.

2016-12-01

The consequences of increasing climatic variance while including variability among individuals and populations are explored for range margins of species with a spatially explicit simulation. The model has a single environmental gradient and a single species then extended to two species. Species response to the environment is a Gaussian function with a peak of 1.0 at their peak fitness on the gradient. The variance in the environment is taken from the total variance in the tree ring series of 399 individuals of Pinus edulis in FIA plots in the western USA. The variability is increased by a multiplier of the standard deviation for various doubling times. The variance of individuals in the simulation is drawn from these same series. Inheritance of individual variability is based on the geographic locations of the individuals. The variance for P. edulis is recomputed as time-dependent conditional standard deviations using the GARCH procedure. Establishment and mortality are simulated in a Monte Carlo process with individual variance. Variance for P. edulis does not show a consistent pattern of heteroscedasticity. An obvious result is that increasing variance has deleterious effects on species persistence because extreme events that result in extinctions cannot be balanced by positive anomalies, but even less extreme negative events cannot be balanced by positive anomalies because of biological and spatial constraints. In the two species model the superior competitor is more affected by increasing climatic variance because its response function is steeper at the point of intersection with the other species and so the uncompensated effects of negative anomalies are greater for it. These theoretical results can guide the anticipated need to mitigate the effects of increasing climatic variability on P. edulis range margins. The trailing edge, here subject to increasing drought stress with increasing temperatures, will be more affected by negative anomalies.

Application of GPS Technologies to study Pre-earthquake processes. A review and future prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulinets, S. A.; Liu, J. Y. G.; Ouzounov, D.; Hernandez-Pajares, M.; Hattori, K.; Krankowski, A.; Zakharenkova, I.; Cherniak, I.

2016-12-01

We present the progress reached by the GPS TEC technologies in study of pre-seismic anomalies in the ionosphere appearing few days before the strong earthquakes. Starting from the first case studies such as 17 August 1999 M7.6 Izmit earthquake in Turkey the technology has been developed and converted into the global near real-time monitoring of seismo-ionospheric effects which is used now in the multiparameter nowcast and forecast of the strong earthquakes. Development of the techniques of the seismo-ionospheric anomalies identification was carried out in parallel with the development of the physical mechanism explaining these anomalies generation. It was established that the seismo-ionospheric anomalies have a self-similarity property, are dependent on the local time and are persistent at least for 4 hours, deviation from undisturbed level could be both positive and negative depending on the leading time (in days) to the moment of impending earthquake and from longitude of anomaly in relation to the epicenter longitude. Low latitude and near equatorial earthquakes demonstrate the magnetically conjugated effect, while the middle and high latitude earthquakes demonstrate the single anomaly over the earthquake preparation zone. From the anomalies morphology the physical mechanism was derived within the framework of the more complex Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Coupling concept. In addition to the multifactor analysis of the GPS TEC time series the GIM MAP technology was applied also clearly showing the seismo-ionospheric anomalies locality and their spatial size correspondence to the Dobrovolsky determination of the earthquake preparation zone radius. Application of ionospheric tomography techniques permitted to study not only the total electron content variations but also the modification of the vertical distribution of electron concentration in the ionosphere before earthquakes. The statistical check of the ionospheric precursors passed the Molchan diagram criteria, the most severe criteria used in seismology for precursor's verification.

Chiral Anomaly from Strain-Induced Gauge Fields in Dirac and Weyl Semimetals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pikulin, D. I.; Chen, Anffany; Franz, M.

2016-10-01

Dirac and Weyl semimetals form an ideal platform for testing ideas developed in high-energy physics to describe massless relativistic particles. One such quintessentially field-theoretic idea of the chiral anomaly already resulted in the prediction and subsequent observation of the pronounced negative magnetoresistance in these novel materials for parallel electric and magnetic fields. Here, we predict that the chiral anomaly occurs—and has experimentally observable consequences—when real electromagnetic fields E and B are replaced by strain-induced pseudo-electromagnetic fields e and b . For example, a uniform pseudomagnetic field b is generated when a Weyl semimetal nanowire is put under torsion. In accordance with the chiral anomaly equation, we predict a negative contribution to the wire resistance proportional to the square of the torsion strength. Remarkably, left- and right-moving chiral modes are then spatially segregated to the bulk and surface of the wire forming a "topological coaxial cable." This produces hydrodynamic flow with potentially very long relaxation time. Another effect we predict is the ultrasonic attenuation and electromagnetic emission due to a time-periodic mechanical deformation causing pseudoelectric field e . These novel manifestations of the chiral anomaly are most striking in the semimetals with a single pair of Weyl nodes but also occur in Dirac semimetals such as Cd3 As2 and Na3Bi and Weyl semimetals with unbroken time-reversal symmetry.

Detecting geothermal anomalies and evaluating LST geothermal component by combining thermal remote sensing time series and land surface model data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romaguera, Mireia; Vaughan, R. Greg; Ettema, J.; Izquierdo-Verdiguier, E.; Hecker, C. A.; van der Meer, F.D.

2018-01-01

This paper explores for the first time the possibilities to use two land surface temperature (LST) time series of different origins (geostationary Meteosat Second Generation satellite data and Noah land surface modelling, LSM), to detect geothermal anomalies and extract the geothermal component of LST, the LSTgt. We hypothesize that in geothermal areas the LSM time series will underestimate the LST as compared to the remote sensing data, since the former does not account for the geothermal component in its model.In order to extract LSTgt, two approaches of different nature (physical based and data mining) were developed and tested in an area of about 560 × 560 km2 centered at the Kenyan Rift. Pre-dawn data in the study area during the first 45 days of 2012 were analyzed.The results show consistent spatial and temporal LSTgt patterns between the two approaches, and systematic differences of about 2 K. A geothermal area map from surface studies was used to assess LSTgt inside and outside the geothermal boundaries. Spatial means were found to be higher inside the geothermal limits, as well as the relative frequency of occurrence of high LSTgt. Results further show that areas with strong topography can result in anomalously high LSTgt values (false positives), which suggests the need for a slope and aspect correction in the inputs to achieve realistic results in those areas. The uncertainty analysis indicates that large uncertainties of the input parameters may limit detection of LSTgt anomalies. To validate the approaches, higher spatial resolution images from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data over the Olkaria geothermal field were used. An established method to estimate radiant geothermal flux was applied providing values between 9 and 24 W/m2 in the geothermal area, which coincides with the LSTgt flux rates obtained with the proposed approaches.The proposed approaches are a first step in estimating LSTgt at large spatial coverage from remote sensing and LSM data series, and provide an innovative framework for future improvements.

Spatially-Aware Temporal Anomaly Mapping of Gamma Spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinhart, Alex; Athey, Alex; Biegalski, Steven

2014-06-01

For security, environmental, and regulatory purposes it is useful to continuously monitor wide areas for unexpected changes in radioactivity. We report on a temporal anomaly detection algorithm which uses mobile detectors to build a spatial map of background spectra, allowing sensitive detection of any anomalies through many days or months of monitoring. We adapt previously-developed anomaly detection methods, which compare spectral shape rather than count rate, to function with limited background data, allowing sensitive detection of small changes in spectral shape from day to day. To demonstrate this technique we collected daily observations over the period of six weeks on a 0.33 square mile research campus and performed source injection simulations.

Groundwater Variability Across Temporal and Spatial Scales in the Central and Northeastern U.S.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Bailing; Rodell, Matthew; Famiglietti, James S.

2015-01-01

Depth-to-water measurements from 181 monitoring wells in unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in nine regions of the central and northeastern U.S. were analyzed. Groundwater storage exhibited strong seasonal variations in all regions, with peaks in spring and lows in autumn, and its interannual variability was nearly unbounded, such that the impacts of droughts, floods, and excessive pumping could persist for many years. We found that the spatial variability of groundwater storage anomalies (deviations from the long term mean) increases as a power function of extent scale (square root of area). That relationship, which is linear on a log-log graph, is common to other hydrological variables but had never before been shown with groundwater data. We describe how the derived power function can be used to determine the number of wells needed to estimate regional mean groundwater storage anomalies with a desired level of accuracy, or to assess uncertainty in regional mean estimates from a set number of observations. We found that the spatial variability of groundwater storage anomalies within a region often increases with the absolute value of the regional mean anomaly, the opposite of the relationship between soil moisture spatial variability and mean. Recharge (drainage from the lowest model soil layer) simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was compatible with observed monthly groundwater storage anomalies and month-to-month changes in groundwater storage.

Spatial variations in the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes at Mount Pinatubo volcano

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanchez, J.J.; McNutt, S.R.; Power, J.A.; Wyss, M.

2004-01-01

The frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes measured by the b-value is mapped in two and three dimensions at Mount Pinatubo, Philippines, to a depth of 14 km below the summit. We analyzed 1406 well-located earthquakes with magnitudes MD ???0.73, recorded from late June through August 1991, using the maximum likelihood method. We found that b-values are higher than normal (b = 1.0) and range between b = 1.0 and b = 1.8. The computed b-values are lower in the areas adjacent to and west-southwest of the vent, whereas two prominent regions of anomalously high b-values (b ??? 1.7) are resolved, one located 2 km northeast of the vent between 0 and 4 km depth and a second located 5 km southeast of the vent below 8 km depth. The statistical differences between selected regions of low and high b-values are established at the 99% confidence level. The high b-value anomalies are spatially well correlated with low-velocity anomalies derived from earlier P-wave travel-time tomography studies. Our dataset was not suitable for analyzing changes in b-values as a function of time. We infer that the high b-value anomalies around Mount Pinatubo are regions of increased crack density, and/or high pore pressure, related to the presence of nearby magma bodies.

Relationships between Rwandan seasonal rainfall anomalies and ENSO events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhire, I.; Ahmed, F.; Abutaleb, K.

2015-10-01

This study aims primarily at investigating the relationships between Rwandan seasonal rainfall anomalies and El Niño-South Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) events. The study is useful for early warning of negative effects associated with extreme rainfall anomalies across the country. It covers the period 1935-1992, using long and short rains data from 28 weather stations in Rwanda and ENSO events resourced from Glantz (2001). The mean standardized anomaly indices were calculated to investigate their associations with ENSO events. One-way analysis of variance was applied on the mean standardized anomaly index values per ENSO event to explore the spatial correlation of rainfall anomalies per ENSO event. A geographical information system was used to present spatially the variations in mean standardized anomaly indices per ENSO event. The results showed approximately three climatic periods, namely, dry period (1935-1960), semi-humid period (1961-1976) and wet period (1977-1992). Though positive and negative correlations were detected between extreme short rains anomalies and El Niño events, La Niña events were mostly linked to negative rainfall anomalies while El Niño events were associated with positive rainfall anomalies. The occurrence of El Niño and La Niña in the same year does not show any clear association with rainfall anomalies. However, the phenomenon was more linked with positive long rains anomalies and negative short rains anomalies. The normal years were largely linked with negative long rains anomalies and positive short rains anomalies, which is a pointer to the influence of other factors other than ENSO events. This makes projection of seasonal rainfall anomalies in the country by merely predicting ENSO events difficult.

Construction of a Penrose Diagram for a Spatially Coherent Evaporating Black Hole

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Beth A.; Lindesay, James

2007-01-01

A Penrose diagram is constructed for an example black hole that evaporates at a steady rate as measured by a distant observer, until the mass vanishes, yielding a final state Minkowski space-time. Coordinate dependencies of significant features, such as the horizon and coordinate anomalies, are clearly demonstrated on the diagram. The large-scale causal structure of the space-time is briefly discussed.

Decadal variability of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean Surface Temperature in shipboard measurements and in a Global Ocean-Atmosphere model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mehta, Vikram M.; Delworth, Thomas

1995-01-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability was investigated in a 200-yr integration of a global model of the coupled oceanic and atmospheric general circulations developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The second 100 yr of SST in the coupled model's tropical Atlantic region were analyzed with a variety of techniques. Analyses of SST time series, averaged over approximately the same subregions as the Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas (GOSTA) time series, showed that the GFDL SST anomalies also undergo pronounced quasi-oscillatory decadal and multidecadal variability but at somewhat shorter timescales than the GOSTA SST anomalies. Further analyses of the horizontal structures of the decadal timescale variability in the GFDL coupled model showed the existence of two types of variability in general agreement with results of the GOSTA SST time series analyses. One type, characterized by timescales between 8 and 11 yr, has high spatial coherence within each hemisphere but not between the two hemispheres of the tropical Atlantic. A second type, characterized by timescales between 12 and 20 yr, has high spatial coherence between the two hemispheres. The second type of variability is considerably weaker than the first. As in the GOSTA time series, the multidecadal variability in the GFDL SST time series has approximately opposite phases between the tropical North and South Atlantic Oceans. Empirical orthogonal function analyses of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies revealed a north-south bipolar pattern as the dominant pattern of decadal variability. It is suggested that the bipolar pattern can be interpreted as decadal variability of the interhemispheric gradient of SST anomalies. The decadal and multidecadal timescale variability of the tropical Atlantic SST, both in the actual and in the GFDL model, stands out significantly above the background 'red noise' and is coherent within each of the time series, suggesting that specific sets of processes may be responsible for the choice of the decadal and multidecadal timescales. Finally, it must be emphasized that the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere model generates the decadal and multidecadal timescale variability without any externally applied force, solar or lunar, at those timescales.

Volcanomagnetic signals during the recent Popocatépetl (México) eruptions and their relation to eruptive activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin-Del Pozzo, A. L.; Cifuentes-Nava, G.; Cabral-Cano, E.; Sánchez-Rubio, G.; Reyes, M.; Martínez-Bringas, Alicia; Garcia, E.; Arango-Galvan, C.

2002-03-01

An interdisciplinary approach correlating magnetic anomalies with composition of the ejecta in each eruption, as well as with seismicity, was used to study the effect of magmatic activity on the local magnetic record at Popocatépetl Volcano located 65 km southeast of México City. Eruptions began on December, 1994, and have continued with dome growth and ash emissions since then. The Tlamacas (TLA) geomagnetic total field monitoring station, located 5 km away from Popocatépetl's crater, was installed in December, 1997, in order to detect magnetic anomalies induced by this activity. Spatial correlation and weighted difference methods were applied to detect temporal geomagnetic anomalies using TLA's record and the Teoloyucan Magnetic Observatory as a reference station. Weighted differences were applied to cancel the effects of non-vulcanogenic external field variations. Magnetic anomalies over a 2-year time span were classified into four types correlating them with geochemical, seismic and visual monitoring of the volcanic activity. Magnetic anomalies are believed to be caused by magma injection and gas pressure build-up, which is sensitive to vent morphology and clearing during eruption, although some anomalies appear to be thermally related, changes in the stress field are very important. Most magnetic anomalies are short time signals that reverse to baseline level. Decreasing anomalies (-0.5 to -6.8 nT) precede eruptions by 1-8 days. The presence of a mafic magmatic component was determined by mineral examination and silica and magnesium analyses on the ejecta from the 1997-1999 eruptions. Whole rock analyses ranged from dacitic (65% SiO 2) to andesitic (57% SiO 2) with 2-6.6% MgO. The higher MgO, lower silica samples contain forsteritic olivine (Fo90). SiO 2 does not increase and MgO does not increase with time, suggesting ascent of small magma pulses which are consistent with the magnetic data.

Spatial-temporal event detection in climate parameter imagery.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKenna, Sean Andrew; Gutierrez, Karen A.

Previously developed techniques that comprise statistical parametric mapping, with applications focused on human brain imaging, are examined and tested here for new applications in anomaly detection within remotely-sensed imagery. Two approaches to analysis are developed: online, regression-based anomaly detection and conditional differences. These approaches are applied to two example spatial-temporal data sets: data simulated with a Gaussian field deformation approach and weekly NDVI images derived from global satellite coverage. Results indicate that anomalies can be identified in spatial temporal data with the regression-based approach. Additionally, la Nina and el Nino climatic conditions are used as different stimuli applied to themore » earth and this comparison shows that el Nino conditions lead to significant decreases in NDVI in both the Amazon Basin and in Southern India.« less

Our Understanding of Space Weather features responsible for geostationary satellite anamolies (P39)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajaram, G.; et al.

2006-11-01

girija60@yahoo.com The topic of space weather effects on operational anomalies on spacecraft is one of considerable research investigation, with both pure and applied aspects. This is because of the very high costs involved in fabricating and operating spacecraft, and in insuring them against the harmful effects of space weather. This is more true for geostationary satellites than of low-orbiting spacecraft, as the former operate in the high-risk environment of the Earth’s outer radiation belts, with its large vagaries in spatial and time variations of high- energy electron and proton distributions (BAKER 2003). Without doubt, plasma and magnetic field emissions from active regions on the Sun are the root cause for spacecraft anomalies. Our study for 2005 shows that over 95% of anomalies can be related to some definite activity on the Sun, ranging from high-speed solar wind streams with their 27-day recurrence patterns/coronal holes/coronal mass ejections preceded by X or M type of flares/and magnetic cloud events. The most energetic solar activity events are generally accompanied by a large rise in solar MeV proton densities at geo-stationary orbit (WILKINSON 1994), and they account for definite anomalies classified as SEU (Single Event Upsets which most often are reversible through resetting commands). Any particles in the low energy ranges (eV and keV, and these could be of magnetospheric or ionospheric origin), are believed to cause external charging effects in exposed parts of the spacecraft such as solar power arrays and power cables. These mainly result in power losses which are debilitating over a period of time. The most dangerous and often irrecoverable damage is due to electronics in the 1-5 MeV range which cause deep dielectric discharge of arc type in semi-conductors comprising spacecraft instruments. Following major solar activity, the populations of these rise to more than (5x103) particles/cm2.ster.sec, with large spatial and time variations (LOVE et al. 2000). When the influence of these relativistic electrons in the neighborhood of geo-stationary spacecraft builds up to values exceeding 108/cm2.ster.day, satellite anomalies invariably occur.Our study finds that these ‘Relativistic electron events’ accompanied by satellite anomalies invariably occur following sharp, well-defined shocks in the inter-planetary medium, and we are trying to understand the relationship between the two. We also notice that anomalies due to space weather effects are very satellite-specific, with differing threshold values seen for different satellites.

Large-scale phenomena, chapter 3, part D

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Oceanic phenomena with horizontal scales from approximately 100 km up to the widths of the oceans themselves are examined. Data include: shape of geoid, quasi-stationary anomalies due to spatial variations in sea density and steady current systems, and the time dependent variations due to tidal and meteorological forces and to varying currents.

Origin and evolution of the deep thermochemical structure beneath Eurasia.

PubMed

Flament, N; Williams, S; Müller, R D; Gurnis, M; Bower, D J

2017-01-18

A unique structure in the Earth's lowermost mantle, the Perm Anomaly, was recently identified beneath Eurasia. It seismologically resembles the large low-shear velocity provinces (LLSVPs) under Africa and the Pacific, but is much smaller. This challenges the current understanding of the evolution of the plate-mantle system in which plumes rise from the edges of the two LLSVPs, spatially fixed in time. New models of mantle flow over the last 230 million years reproduce the present-day structure of the lower mantle, and show a Perm-like anomaly. The anomaly formed in isolation within a closed subduction network ∼22,000 km in circumference prior to 150 million years ago before migrating ∼1,500 km westward at an average rate of 1 cm year -1 , indicating a greater mobility of deep mantle structures than previously recognized. We hypothesize that the mobile Perm Anomaly could be linked to the Emeishan volcanics, in contrast to the previously proposed Siberian Traps.

Generalized global symmetries

DOE PAGES

Gaiotto, Davide; Kapustin, Anton; Seiberg, Nathan; ...

2015-02-26

A q-form global symmetry is a global symmetry for which the charged operators are of space-time dimension q; e.g. Wilson lines, surface defects, etc., and the charged excitations have q spatial dimensions; e.g. strings, membranes, etc. Many of the properties of ordinary global symmetries (q = 0) apply here. They lead to Ward identities and hence to selection rules on amplitudes. Such global symmetries can be coupled to classical background fields and they can be gauged by summing over these classical fields. These generalized global symmetries can be spontaneously broken (either completely or to a sub-group). They can also havemore » ’t Hooft anomalies, which prevent us from gauging them, but lead to ’t Hooft anomaly matching conditions. Such anomalies can also lead to anomaly inflow on various defects and exotic Symmetry Protected Topological phases. In conclusion, our analysis of these symmetries gives a new unified perspective of many known phenomena and uncovers new results.« less

Ionospheric total electron content anomalies due to Typhoon Nakri on 29 May 2008: A nonlinear principal component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Jyh-Woei

2012-09-01

This paper uses Nonlinear Principal Component Analysis (NLPCA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to determine Total Electron Content (TEC) anomalies in the ionosphere for the Nakri Typhoon on 29 May, 2008 (UTC). NLPCA, PCA and image processing are applied to the global ionospheric map (GIM) with transforms conducted for the time period 12:00-14:00 UT on 29 May 2008 when the wind was most intense. Results show that at a height of approximately 150-200 km the TEC anomaly using NLPCA is more localized; however its intensity increases with height and becomes more widespread. The TEC anomalies are not found by PCA. Potential causes of the results are discussed with emphasis given to vertical acoustic gravity waves. The approximate position of the typhoon's eye can be detected if the GIM is divided into fine enough maps with adequate spatial-resolution at GPS-TEC receivers. This implies that the trace of the typhoon in the regional GIM is caught using NLPCA.

Vertical Moist Thermodynamic Structure and Spatial-Temporal Evolution of the MJO in AIRS Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tian, Baijun; Waliser, Duane E.; Fetzer, Eric J.; Lambrigtsen, Bjorn H.; Yung, Yuk L.; Wang, Bin

2006-01-01

The atmospheric moisture and temperature profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit on the NASA Aqua mission, in combination with the precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), are employed to study the vertical moist thermodynamic structure and spatial-temporal evolution of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). The AIRS data indicate that, in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, the temperature anomaly exhibits a trimodal vertical structure: a warm (cold) anomaly in the free troposphere (800-250 hPa) and a cold (warm) anomaly near the tropopause (above 250 hPa) and in the lower troposphere (below 800 hPa) associated with enhanced (suppressed) convection. The AIRS moisture anomaly also shows markedly different vertical structures as a function of longitude and the strength of convection anomaly. Most significantly, the AIRS data demonstrate that, over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, the enhanced (suppressed) convection is generally preceded in both time and space by a low-level warm and moist (cold and dry) anomaly and followed by a low-level cold and dry (warm and moist) anomaly. The MJO vertical moist thermodynamic structure from the AIRS data is in general agreement, particularly in the free troposphere, with previous studies based on global reanalysis and limited radiosonde data. However, major differences in the lower-troposphere moisture and temperature structure between the AIRS observations and the NCEP reanalysis are found over the Indian and Pacific Oceans, where there are very few conventional data to constrain the reanalysis. Specifically, the anomalous lower-troposphere temperature structure is much less well defined in NCEP than in AIRS for the western Pacific, and even has the opposite sign anomalies compared to AIRS relative to the wet/dry phase of the MJO in the Indian Ocean. Moreover, there are well-defined eastward-tilting variations of moisture with height in AIRS over the central and eastern Pacific that are less well defined, and in some cases absent, in NCEP. In addition, the correlation between MJO-related mid-tropospheric water vapor anomalies and TRMM precipitation anomalies is considerably more robust in AIRS than in NCEP, especially over the Indian Ocean. Overall, the AIRS results are quite consistent with those predicted by the frictional Kelvin-Rossby wave/conditional instability of the second kind (CISK) theory for the MJO.

Toward long-lead operational forecasts of drought: An experimental study in the Murray-Darling River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barros, Ana P.; Bowden, Gavin J.

2008-08-01

SummaryResiliency and effectiveness in water resources management of drought is strongly depend on advanced knowledge of drought onset, duration and severity. The motivation of this work is to extend the lead time of operational drought forecasts. The research strategy is to explore the predictability of drought severity from space-time varying indices of large-scale climate phenomena relevant to regional hydrometeorology (e.g. ENSO) by integrating linear and non-linear statistical data models, specifically self-organizing maps (SOM) and multivariate linear regression analysis. The methodology is demonstrated through the step-by-step development of a model to forecast monthly spatial patterns of the standard precipitation index (SPI) within the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia up to 12 months in advance. First, the rationale for the physical hypothesis and the exploratory data analysis including principal components, wavelet and partial mutual information analysis to identify and select predictor variables are presented. The focus is on spatial datasets of precipitation, sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) patterns over the Indian and Pacific Oceans, temporal and spatial gradients of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the Pacific Ocean, and the far western Pacific wind-stress anomaly. Second, the process of model construction, calibration and evaluation is described. The experimental forecasts show that there is ample opportunity to increase the lead time of drought forecasts for decision support using parsimonious data models that capture the governing climate processes at regional scale. OLR gradients proved to be dispensable predictors, whereas SPI-based predictors appear to control predictability when the SSTA in the region [87.5°N-87.5°S; 27.5°E-67.5°W] and eastward wind-stress anomalies in the region [4°N-4°S; 130°E-160°E) are small, respectively, ±1° and ±0.01 dyne/cm 2, that is when ENSO activity is weak. The areal averaged 12-month lead-time forecasts of SPI in the MDB explain up to 60% of the variance in the observations ( r > 0.7). Based on a threshold SPI of -0.5 for severe drought at the regional scale and for a nominal 12-month lead time, the forecast of the timing of onset is within 0-2 months of the actual threshold being met by the observations, thus effectively a 10-month lead time forecast at a minimum. Spatial analysis suggests that forecast errors can be attributed in part to a mismatch between the spatial heterogeneity of rainfall and raingauge density in the observational network. Forecast uncertainty on the other hand appears associated with the number of redundant predictors used in the forecast model.

Matching Deep Tow Camera study and Sea Floor geochemical characterization of gas migration at the Tainan Ridge, South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, L. F.; Lien, K. L.; Hsieh, I. C.; Lin, S.

2017-12-01

Methane seep in deep sea environment could lead to build up of chemosynthesis communities, and a number of geological and biological anomalies as compare to the surrounding area. In order to examine the linkage between seep anomalies and those at the vicinity background area, and to detail mapping those spatial variations, we used a deep towed camera system (TowCam) to survey seafloor on the Tainan Ridge, Northeastern South China Sea (SCS). The underwater sea floor pictures could provide better spatial variations to demonstrate impact of methane seep on the sea floor. Water column variations of salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen were applied to delineate fine scale variations at the study area. In addition, sediment cores were collected for chemical analyses to confirm the existence of local spatial variations. Our results show large spatial variations existed as a result of differences in methane flux. In fact, methane is the driving force for the observed biogeochemical variations in the water column, on the sea floor, and in the sediment. Of the area we have surveyed, there are approximately 7% of total towcam survey data showing abnormal water properties. Corresponding to the water column anomalies, underwater sea floor pictures taken from those places showed that chemosynthetic clams and muscles could be identified, together with authigenic carbonate buildups, and bacterial mats. Moreover, sediment cores with chemical anomalies also matched those in the water column and on the sea floor. These anomalies, however, represent only a small portion of the area surveyed and could not be identified with typical (random) coring method. Methane seep, therefore, require tedious and multiple types of surveys to better understand the scale and magnitude of seep and biogeochemical anomalies those were driven by gas migrations.

Spaceborne Microwave Remote Sensing of Seasonal Freeze-Thaw Processes in the Terrestrial High Latitudes: Relationships with Land-Atmosphere CO2 exchange

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McDonald, Kyle C.; Kimball, John S.; Zhao, Maosheng; Njoku, Eni; Zimmermann, Reiner; Running, Steven W.

2004-01-01

Landscape transitions between seasonally frozen and thawed conditions occur each year over roughly 50 million square kilometers of Earth's Northern Hemisphere. These relatively abrupt transitions represent the closest analog to a biospheric and hydrologic on/off switch existing in nature, affecting surface meteorological conditions, ecological trace gas dynamics, energy exchange and hydrologic activity profoundly. We utilize time series satellite-borne microwave remote sensing measurements from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) to examine spatial and temporal variability in seasonal freeze/thaw cycles for the pan-Arctic basin and Alaska. Regional measurements of spring thaw timing are derived using daily brightness temperature measurements from the 19 GHz, horizontally polarized channel, separately for overpasses with 6 AM and 6 PM equatorial crossing times. Spatial and temporal patterns in regional freeze/thaw dynamics show distinct differences between North America and Eurasia, and boreal forest and Arctic tundra biomes. Annual anomalies in the timing of thawing in spring also correspond closely to seasonal atmospheric CO2 concentration anomalies derived from NOAA CMDL arctic and subarctic monitoring stations. Classification differences between AM and PM overpass data average approximately 5 days for the region, though both appear to be effective surrogates for monitoring annual growing seasons at high latitudes.

Spaceborne microwave remote sensing of seasonal freeze-thaw processes in theterrestrial high l atitudes : relationships with land-atmosphere CO2 exchange

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McDonald, Kyle C.; Kimball, John S.; Zhao, Maosheng; Njoku, Eni; Zimmermann, Reiner; Running, Steven W.

2004-01-01

Landscape transitions between seasonally frozen and thawed conditions occur each year over roughly 50 million square kilometers of Earth's Northern Hemisphere. These relatively abrupt transitions represent the closest analog to a biospheric and hydrologic on/off switch existing in nature, affecting surface meteorological conditions, ecological trace gas dynamics, energy exchange and hydrologic activity profoundly. We utilize time series satellite-borne microwave remote sensing measurements from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) to examine spatial and temporal variability in seasonal freeze/thaw cycles for the pan-Arctic basin and Alaska. Regional measurements of spring thaw timing are derived using daily brightness temperature measurements from the 19 GHz, horizontally polarized channel, separately for overpasses with 6 AM and 6 PM equatorial crossing times. Spatial and temporal patterns in regional freeze/thaw dynamics show distinct differences between North America and Eurasia, and boreal forest and Arctic tundra biomes. Annual anomalies in the timing of thawing in spring also correspond closely to seasonal atmospheric CO2 concentration anomalies derived from NOAA CMDL arctic and subarctic monitoring stations. Classification differences between AM and PM overpass data average approximately 5 days for the region, though both appear to be effective surrogates for monitoring annual growing seasons at high latitudes.

Introducing an operational method to forecast long-term regional drought based on the application of artificial intelligence capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kousari, Mohammad Reza; Hosseini, Mitra Esmaeilzadeh; Ahani, Hossein; Hakimelahi, Hemila

2017-01-01

An effective forecast of the drought definitely gives lots of advantages in regard to the management of water resources being used in agriculture, industry, and households consumption. To introduce such a model applying simple data inputs, in this study a regional drought forecast method on the basis of artificial intelligence capabilities (artificial neural networks) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI in 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, and 24 monthly series) has been presented in Fars Province of Iran. The precipitation data of 41 rain gauge stations were applied for computing SPI values. Besides, weather signals including Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), NINO1+2, anomaly NINO1+2, NINO3, anomaly NINO3, NINO4, anomaly NINO4, NINO3.4, and anomaly NINO3.4 were also used as the predictor variables for SPI time series forecast the next 12 months. Frequent testing and validating steps were considered to obtain the best artificial neural networks (ANNs) models. The forecasted values were mapped in verification sector then they were compared with the observed maps at the same dates. Results showed considerable spatial and temporal relationships even among the maps of different SPI time series. Also, the first 6 months forecasted maps showed an average of 73 % agreements with the observed ones. The most important finding and the strong point of this study was the fact that although drought forecast in each station and time series was completely independent, the relationships between spatial and temporal predictions remained. This strong point mainly referred to frequent testing and validating steps in order to explore the best drought forecast models from plenty of produced ANNs models. Finally, wherever the precipitation data are available, the practical application of the presented method is possible.

Sub-seasonal prediction of significant wave heights over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans, part II: The impact of ENSO and MJO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, Ravi P.; Kinter, James L.; Shin, Chul-Su

2018-03-01

This study evaluates the effect of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events on 14-day mean significant wave height (SWH) at 3 weeks lead time (Wk34) over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The WAVEWATCH-3 (WW3) model is forced with daily 10m-winds predicted by a modified version of CFSv2 that is initialized with multiple ocean analyses in both January and May for 1979-2008. A significant anomaly correlation of predicted and observed SWH anomalies (SWHA) at Wk34 lead-time is found over portions of the domain, including the central western Pacific, South China Sea (SCS), Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southern Indian Ocean (IO) in January cases, and over BOB, equatorial western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and southern IO in May cases. The model successfully predicts almost all the important features of the observed composite SWHA during El Niño events in January, including negative SWHA in the central IO where westerly wind anomalies act on an easterly mean state, and positive SWHA over the southern Ocean (SO) where westerly wind anomalies act on a westerly mean state. The model successfully predicts the sign and magnitude of SWHA at Wk34 lead-time in May over the BOB and SCS in composites of combined phases-2-3 and phases-6-7 of MJO. The observed leading mode of SWHA in May and the third mode of SWHA in January are influenced by the combined effects of ENSO and MJO. Based on spatial and temporal correlations, the spatial patterns of SWHA in the model at Wk34 in both January and May are in good agreement with the observations over the equatorial western Pacific, equatorial and southern IO, and SO.

Seismo-ionospheric anomalies in ionospheric TEC and plasma density before the 17 July 2006 M7.7 south of Java earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Dan; Cao, Jinbin; Battiston, Roberto; Li, Liuyuan; Ma, Yuduan; Liu, Wenlong; Zhima, Zeren; Wang, Lanwei; Wray Dunlop, Malcolm

2017-04-01

In this paper, we report significant evidence for preseismic ionospheric anomalies in total electron content (TEC) of the global ionosphere map (GIM) and plasma density appearing on day 2 before the 17 July 2006 M7.7 south of Java earthquake. After distinguishing other anomalies related to the geomagnetic activities, we found a temporal precursor around the epicenter on day 2 before the earthquake (15 July 2006), which agrees well with the spatial variations in latitude-longitude-time (LLT) maps. Meanwhile, the sequences of latitude-time-TEC (LTT) plots reveal that the TECs on epicenter side anomalously decrease and lead to an anomalous asymmetric structure with respect to the magnetic equator in the daytime from day 2 before the earthquake. This anomalous asymmetric structure disappears after the earthquake. To further confirm these anomalies, we studied the plasma data from DEMETER satellite in the earthquake preparation zone (2046.4 km in radius) during the period from day 45 before to day 10 after the earthquake, and also found that the densities of both electron and total ion in the daytime significantly increase on day 2 before the earthquake. Very interestingly, O+ density increases significantly and H+ density decreases, while He+ remains relatively stable. These results indicate that there exists a distinct preseismic signal (preseismic ionospheric anomaly) over the epicenter.

Early Sensitivity to Discourse-Level Anomalies: Evidence from Self-Paced Reading

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewart, Andrew J.; Kidd, Evan; Haigh, Matthew

2009-01-01

Two word-by-word, self-paced reading experiments investigated the speed with which readers were sensitive to discourse-level anomalies. An account arguing for delayed sensitivity (Guzman & Klin, 2000) was contrasted with one allowing for rapid sensitivity (Myers & O'Brien, 1998). Anomalies related to spatial information (Experiment 1) and…

Mantle-driven geodynamo features - accounting for non-thermal lower mantle features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choblet, G.; Amit, H.

2011-12-01

Lower mantle heterogeneity responsible for spatial variations of the CMB heat flux could control long term geodynamo properties such as deviations from axial symmetry in the magnetic field and the core flow, frequency of geomagnetic reversals and anisotropic growth of the inner core. In this context, a classical interpretation of tomographic mapping of the lowermost mantle is to correlate linearly seismic velocities to heat flux anomalies. This implicitly assumes that temperature alone controls the tomographic anomalies. In addition, the limited spatial resolution of tomographic images precludes modeling sharp CMB heat flux structures.. There has been growing evidence however that non-thermal origins are also be expected for seismic velocity anomalies: the three main additional control parameters are (i) compositional anomalies possibly associated to the existence of a deep denser layer, (ii) the phase transition in magnesium perovskite believed to occur in the lowermost mantle and (iii) the possible presence of partial melts. Numerical models of mantle dynamics have illustrated how the first two parameters could distort the linear relationship between shear wave velocity anomalies and CMB heat flux (Nakagawa and Tackley, 2008). In this presentation we will consider the effect of such alternative interpretations of seismic velocity anomalies in order to prescribe CMB heat flux as an outer boundary for dynamo simulations. We first focus on the influence of post-perovskite. Taking into account this complexity could result in an improved agreement between the long term average properties of simulated dynamos and geophysical observations, including the Atlantic/Pacific hemispherical dichotomy in core flow activity, the single intense paleomagnetic field structure in the southern hemisphere, and possibly degree 1 dominant mode of inner-core seismic heterogeneity. We then account for sharp anomalies that are not resolved by the global tomographic probe. For instance, Ultra Low Velocity Zones (ULVZs) have been identified by dedicated seismic tools that cannot be observed by global tomographic models. These are likely associated to the hottest regions in the lowermost mantle. We thus model anomalies of the CMB heat flux where narrow ridges with low heat flux are juxtaposed to a large scale degree 2 pattern which represents the dominant component of tomographic observations. We find that hot ridges located with a large-scale positive heat flux anomaly to the east produce a time-average narrow elongated upwelling which acts as a flow barrier at the top of the core and results in intensified low-latitudes magnetic flux patches. This is found to have a clear signature on the meridional component of the thermal wind balance. Based on the lower mantle seismic tomography pattern, time average intense geomagnetic flux patches are expected below east Asia and Oceania and below the Americas.

Application of data cubes for improving detection of water cycle extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, W. L.; Albayrak, A.

2015-12-01

As part of an ongoing NASA-funded project to remove a longstanding barrier to accessing NASA data (i.e., accessing archived time-step array data as point-time series), for the hydrology and other point-time series-oriented communities, "data cubes" are created from which time series files (aka "data rods") are generated on-the-fly and made available as Web services from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). Data cubes are data as archived rearranged into spatio-temporal matrices, which allow for easy access to the data, both spatially and temporally. A data cube is a specific case of the general optimal strategy of reorganizing data to match the desired means of access. The gain from such reorganization is greater the larger the data set. As a use case for our project, we are leveraging existing software to explore the application of the data cubes concept to machine learning, for the purpose of detecting water cycle extreme (WCE) events, a specific case of anomaly detection, requiring time series data. We investigate the use of the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) for anomaly detection and support vector machines (SVM) for anomaly classification. We show an example of detection of WCE events, using the Global Land Data Assimilation Systems (GLDAS) data set.

Systemic and intensifying drought induces collapse and replacement of native fishes: a time-series approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruhi, A.; Olden, J. D.; Sabo, J. L.

2015-12-01

In the American Southwest, hydrologic drought has become a new normal as a result of increasing human appropriation of freshwater resources and increased aridity associated with global warming. Although drought has often been touted to threaten freshwater biodiversity, connecting drought to extinction risk of highly-imperiled faunas remains a challenge. Here we combine time-series methods from signal processing and econometrics to analyze a spatially comprehensive and long-term dataset to link discharge variation and community abundance of fish across the American Southwest. This novel time series framework identifies ongoing trends in daily discharge anomalies across the Southwest, quantifies the effect of the historical hydrologic drivers on fish community abundance, and allows us to simulate species trajectories and range-wide risk of decline (quasiextinction) under scenarios of future climate. Spectral anomalies are declining over the last 30 years in at least a quarter of the stream gaging stations across the American Southwest and these anomalies are robust predictors of historical abundance of native and non-native fishes. Quasiextinction probabilities are high (>50 %) for nearly ¾ of the native species across several large river basins in the same region; and the negative trend in annual anomalies increases quasiextinction risk for native but reduces this risk for non-native fishes. These findings suggest that ongoing drought is causing range-wide collapse and replacement of native fish faunas, and that this homogenization of western fish faunas will continue given the prevailing negative trend in discharge anomalies. Additionally, this combination of methods can be applied elsewhere as long as environmental and biological long-term time-series data are available. Collectively, these methods allow identifying the link between hydroclimatic forcing and ecological responses and thus may help anticipating the potential impacts of ongoing and future hydrologic extremes in freshwater ecosystems.

Southern Ocean Climate and Sea Ice Anomalies Associated with the Southern Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwok, R.; Comiso, J. C.

2001-01-01

The anomalies in the climate and sea ice cover of the Southern Ocean and their relationships with the Southern Oscillation (SO) are investigated using a 17-year of data set from 1982 through 1998. We correlate the polar climate anomalies with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and examine the composites of these anomalies under the positive (SOI > 0), neutral (0 > SOI > -1), and negative (SOI < -1) phases of SOL The climate data set consists of sea-level pressure, wind, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature fields, while the sea ice data set describes its extent, concentration, motion, and surface temperature. The analysis depicts, for the first time, the spatial variability in the relationship of the above variables and the SOL The strongest correlation between the SOI and the polar climate anomalies are found in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen and Ross sea sectors. The composite fields reveal anomalies that are organized in distinct large-scale spatial patterns with opposing polarities at the two extremes of SOI, and suggest oscillating climate anomalies that are closely linked to the SO. Within these sectors, positive (negative) phases of the SOI are generally associated with lower (higher) sea-level pressure, cooler (warmer) surface air temperature, and cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature in these sectors. Associations between these climate anomalies and the behavior of the Antarctic sea ice cover are clearly evident. Recent anomalies in the sea ice cover that are apparently associated with the SOI include: the record decrease in the sea ice extent in the Bellingshausen Sea from mid- 1988 through early 199 1; the relationship between Ross Sea SST and ENSO signal, and reduced sea ice concentration in the Ross Sea; and, the shortening of the ice season in the eastern Ross Sea, Amundsen Sea, far western Weddell Sea, and the lengthening of the ice season in the western Ross Sea, Bellingshausen Sea and central Weddell Sea gyre over the period 1988-1994. Four ENSO episodes over the last 17 years contributed to a negative mean in the SOI (-0.5). In each of these episodes, significant retreats in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Sea were observed providing direct confirmation of the impact of SO on the Antarctic sea ice cover.

Spatial Interpretation of Tower, Chamber and Modelled Terrestrial Fluxes in a Tropical Forest Plantation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whidden, E.; Roulet, N.

2003-04-01

Interpretation of a site average terrestrial flux may be complicated in the presence of inhomogeneities. Inhomogeneity may invalidate the basic assumptions of aerodynamic flux measurement. Chamber measurement may miss or misinterpret important temporal or spatial anomalies. Models may smooth over important nonlinearities depending on the scale of application. Although inhomogeneity is usually seen as a design problem, many sites have spatial variance that may have a large impact on net flux, and in many cases a large homogeneous surface is unrealistic. The sensitivity and validity of a site average flux are investigated in the presence of an inhomogeneous site. Directional differences are used to evaluate the validity of aerodynamic methods and the computation of a site average tower flux. Empirical and modelling methods are used to interpret the spatial controls on flux. An ecosystem model, Ecosys, is used to assess spatial length scales appropriate to the ecophysiologic controls. A diffusion model is used to compare tower, chamber, and model data, by spatially weighting contributions within the tower footprint. Diffusion model weighting is also used to improve tower flux estimates by producing footprint averaged ecological parameters (soil moisture, soil temperature, etc.). Although uncertainty remains in the validity of measurement methods and the accuracy of diffusion models, a detailed spatial interpretation is required at an inhomogeneous site. Flux estimation between methods improves with spatial interpretation, showing the importance to an estimation of a site average flux. Small-scale temporal and spatial anomalies may be relatively unimportant to overall flux, but accounting for medium-scale differences in ecophysiological controls is necessary. A combination of measurements and modelling can be used to define the appropriate time and length scales of significant non-linearity due to inhomogeneity.

Do MAGSAT anomalies contain a record of past and present-day mantle convection under South America?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hastings, D. A.

1985-01-01

Global anomaly maps from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Magnetic Field Satellite (MAGSAT) have been spatially filtered to reduce the prominence of long-wavelength east-west bands and to improve the discrimination of anomalies within structural provinces. Previous research suggested a correlation between total-field MAGSAT anomaly lows in equatorial regions with crustal bodies of relatively high average magnetic susceptibility (such as Archaean shields), and of anomaly highs with bodies of low susceptibility (such as deep parts of basins). These correlations reverse at higher latitudes.

Elevation Difference and Bouguer Anomaly Analysis Tool (EDBAAT) User's Guide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smittle, Aaron M.; Shoberg, Thomas G.

2017-06-16

This report describes a software tool that imports gravity anomaly point data from the Gravity Database of the United States (GDUS) of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and University of Texas at El Paso along with elevation data from The National Map (TNM) of the U.S. Geological Survey that lie within a user-specified geographic area of interest. Further, the tool integrates these two sets of data spatially and analyzes the consistency of the elevation of each gravity station from the GDUS with TNM elevation data; it also evaluates the consistency of gravity anomaly data within the GDUS data repository. The tool bins the GDUS data based on user-defined criteria of elevation misfit between the GDUS and TNM elevation data. It also provides users with a list of points from the GDUS data, which have Bouguer anomaly values that are considered outliers (two standard deviations or greater) with respect to other nearby GDUS anomaly data. “Nearby” can be defined by the user at time of execution. These outputs should allow users to quickly and efficiently choose which points from the GDUS would be most useful in reconnaissance studies or in augmenting and extending the range of individual gravity studies.

Ionospheric TEC Weather Map Over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, H.; Wrasse, C. M.; Denardini, C. M.; Pádua, M. B.; de Paula, E. R.; Costa, S. M. A.; Otsuka, Y.; Shiokawa, K.; Monico, J. F. Galera; Ivo, A.; Sant'Anna, N.

2016-11-01

Ionospheric weather maps using the total electron content (TEC) monitored by ground-based Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) receivers over South American continent, TECMAP, have been operationally produced by Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais's Space Weather Study and Monitoring Program (Estudo e Monitoramento Brasileiro de Clima Especial) since 2013. In order to cover the whole continent, four GNSS receiver networks, (Rede Brasileiro de Monitoramento Contínuo) RBMC/Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics, Low-latitude Ionospheric Sensor Network, International GNSS Service, and Red Argentina de Monitoreo Satelital Continuo, in total 140 sites, have been used. TECMAPs with a time resolution of 10 min are produced in 12 h time delay. Spatial resolution of the map is rather low, varying between 50 and 500 km depending on the density of the observation points. Large day-to-day variabilities of the equatorial ionization anomaly have been observed. Spatial gradient of TEC from the anomaly trough (total electron content unit, 1 TECU = 1016 el m-2 (TECU) <10) to the crest region (TECU > 80) causes a large ionospheric range delay in the GNSS positioning system. Ionospheric plasma bubbles, their seeding and development, could be monitored. This plasma density (spatial and temporal) variability causes not only the GNSS-based positioning error but also radio wave scintillations. Monitoring of these phenomena by TEC mapping becomes an important issue for space weather concern for high-technology positioning system and telecommunication.

Traffic-related air pollution and congenital anomalies in Barcelona.

PubMed

Schembari, Anna; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J; Salvador, Joaquin; de Nazelle, Audrey; Cirach, Marta; Dadvand, Payam; Beelen, Rob; Hoek, Gerard; Basagaña, Xavier; Vrijheid, Martine

2014-03-01

A recent meta-analysis suggested evidence for an effect of exposure to ambient air pollutants on risk of certain congenital heart defects. However, few studies have investigated the effects of traffic-related air pollutants with sufficient spatial accuracy. We estimated associations between congenital anomalies and exposure to traffic-related air pollution in Barcelona, Spain. Cases with nonchromosomal anomalies (n = 2,247) and controls (n = 2,991) were selected from the Barcelona congenital anomaly register during 1994-2006. Land use regression models from the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE), were applied to residential addresses at birth to estimate spatial exposure to nitrogen oxides and dioxide (NOx, NO2), particulate matter with diameter ≤ 10 μm (PM10), 10-2.5 μm (PMcoarse), ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), and PM2.5 absorbance. Spatial estimates were adjusted for temporal trends using data from routine monitoring stations for weeks 3-8 of each pregnancy. Logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) for 18 congenital anomaly groups associated with an interquartile-range (IQR) increase in exposure estimates. In spatial and spatiotemporal exposure models, we estimated statistically significant associations between an IQR increase in NO2 (12.2 μg/m3) and coarctation of the aorta (ORspatiotemporal = 1.15; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.31) and digestive system defects (ORspatiotemporal = 1.11; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.23), and between an IQR increase in PMcoarse (3.6 μg/m3) and abdominal wall defects (ORspatiotemporal = 1.93; 95% CI: 1.37, 2.73). Other statistically significant increased and decreased ORs were estimated based on the spatial model only or the spatiotemporal model only, but not both. Our results overall do not indicate an association between traffic-related air pollution and most groups of congenital anomalies. Findings for coarctation of the aorta are consistent with those of the previous meta-analysis. Schembari A, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Salvador J, de Nazelle A, Cirach M, Dadvand P, Beelen R, Hoek G, Basagaña X, Vrijheid M. 2014. Traffic-related air pollution and congenital anomalies in Barcelona. Environ Health Perspect 122:317-323; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306802.

Recent Global Warming as Observed by AIRS and Depicted in GISSTEMP and MERRA-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Lee, Jae; Iredell, Lena

2017-01-01

AIRS Version-6 monthly mean level-3 surface temperature products confirm the result, depicted in the GISSTEMP dataset, that the earth's surface temperature has been warming since early 2015, though not before that. AIRS is at a higher spatial resolution than GISSTEMP, and produces sharper spatial features which are otherwise in excellent agreement with those of GISSTEMP. Version-6 AO Ts anomalies are consistent with those of Version-6 AIRS/AMSU. Version-7 AO anomalies should be even more accurate, especially at high latitudes. ARCs of MERRA-2 Ts anomalies are spurious as a result of a discontinuity which occurred somewhere between 2007 and 2008. This decreases global mean trends.

Intelligent Sampling of Hazardous Particle Populations in Resource-Constrained Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCollough, J. P.; Quinn, J. M.; Starks, M. J.; Johnston, W. R.

2017-10-01

Sampling of anomaly-causing space environment drivers is necessary for both real-time operations and satellite design efforts, and optimizing measurement sampling helps minimize resource demands. Relating these measurements to spacecraft anomalies requires the ability to resolve spatial and temporal variability in the energetic charged particle hazard of interest. Here we describe a method for sampling particle fluxes informed by magnetospheric phenomenology so that, along a given trajectory, the variations from both temporal dynamics and spatial structure are adequately captured while minimizing oversampling. We describe the coordinates, sampling method, and specific regions and parameters employed. We compare resulting sampling cadences with data from spacecraft spanning the regions of interest during a geomagnetically active period, showing that the algorithm retains the gross features necessary to characterize environmental impacts on space systems in diverse orbital regimes while greatly reducing the amount of sampling required. This enables sufficient environmental specification within a resource-constrained context, such as limited telemetry bandwidth, processing requirements, and timeliness.

Aeromagnetic survey map of Sacramento Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langenheim, Victoria E.

2015-01-01

Three aeromagnetic surveys were flown to improve understanding of the geology and structure in the Sacramento Valley. The resulting data serve as a basis for geophysical interpretations, and support geological mapping, water and mineral resource investigations, and other topical studies. Local spatial variations in the Earth's magnetic field (evident as anomalies on aeromagnetic maps) reflect the distribution of magnetic minerals, primarily magnetite, in the underlying rocks. In many cases the volume content of magnetic minerals can be related to rock type, and abrupt spatial changes in the amount of magnetic minerals commonly mark lithologic or structural boundaries. Bodies of serpentinite and other mafic and ultramafic rocks tend to produce the most intense positive magnetic anomalies (for example, in the northwest part of the map). These rock types are the inferred sources, concealed beneath weakly magnetic, valley-fill deposits, of the most prominent magnetic features in the map area, the magnetic highs that extend along the valley axis. Cenozoic volcanic rocks are also an important source of magnetic anomalies and coincide with short-wavelength anomalies that can be either positive (strong central positive anomaly flanked by lower-amplitude negative anomalies) or negative (strong central negative anomaly flanked by lower-amplitude positive anomalies), reflecting the contribution of remanent magnetization. Rocks with more felsic compositions or even some sedimentary units also can cause measurable magnetic anomalies. For example, the long, linear, narrow north-trending anomalies (with amplitudes of <50 nanoteslas [nT]) along the western margin of the valley coincide with exposures of the Mesozoic Great Valley sequence. Note that isolated, short-wavelength anomalies, such as those in the city of Sacramento and along some of the major roads, are caused by manmade features.

System and Method for Detecting Unauthorized Device Access by Comparing Multiple Independent Spatial-Time Data Sets from Other Devices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Westmeyer, Paul A. (Inventor); Wertenberg, Russell F. (Inventor); Krage, Frederick J. (Inventor); Riegel, Jack F. (Inventor)

2017-01-01

An authentication procedure utilizes multiple independent sources of data to determine whether usage of a device, such as a desktop computer, is authorized. When a comparison indicates an anomaly from the base-line usage data, the system, provides a notice that access of the first device is not authorized.

A rank-based approach for correcting systematic biases in spatial disaggregation of coarse-scale climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nahar, Jannatun; Johnson, Fiona; Sharma, Ashish

2017-07-01

Use of General Circulation Model (GCM) precipitation and evapotranspiration sequences for hydrologic modelling can result in unrealistic simulations due to the coarse scales at which GCMs operate and the systematic biases they contain. The Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) method is a popular statistical downscaling and bias correction method developed to address this issue. The advantage of BCSD is its ability to reduce biases in the distribution of precipitation totals at the GCM scale and then introduce more realistic variability at finer scales than simpler spatial interpolation schemes. Although BCSD corrects biases at the GCM scale before disaggregation; at finer spatial scales biases are re-introduced by the assumptions made in the spatial disaggregation process. Our study focuses on this limitation of BCSD and proposes a rank-based approach that aims to reduce the spatial disaggregation bias especially for both low and high precipitation extremes. BCSD requires the specification of a multiplicative bias correction anomaly field that represents the ratio of the fine scale precipitation to the disaggregated precipitation. It is shown that there is significant temporal variation in the anomalies, which is masked when a mean anomaly field is used. This can be improved by modelling the anomalies in rank-space. Results from the application of the rank-BCSD procedure improve the match between the distributions of observed and downscaled precipitation at the fine scale compared to the original BCSD approach. Further improvements in the distribution are identified when a scaling correction to preserve mass in the disaggregation process is implemented. An assessment of the approach using a single GCM over Australia shows clear advantages especially in the simulation of particularly low and high downscaled precipitation amounts.

Flux-fusion anomaly test and bosonic topological crystalline insulators

DOE PAGES

Hermele, Michael; Chen, Xie

2016-10-13

Here, we introduce a method, dubbed the flux-fusion anomaly test, to detect certain anomalous symmetry fractionalization patterns in two-dimensional symmetry-enriched topological (SET) phases. We focus on bosonic systems with Z2 topological order and a symmetry group of the form G=U(1)xG', where G' is an arbitrary group that may include spatial symmetries and/or time reversal. The anomalous fractionalization patterns we identify cannot occur in strictly d=2 systems but can occur at surfaces of d=3 symmetry-protected topological (SPT) phases. This observation leads to examples of d=3 bosonic topological crystalline insulators (TCIs) that, to our knowledge, have not previously been identified. In somemore » cases, these d=3 bosonic TCIs can have an anomalous superfluid at the surface, which is characterized by nontrivial projective transformations of the superfluid vortices under symmetry. The basic idea of our anomaly test is to introduce fluxes of the U(1) symmetry and to show that some fractionalization patterns cannot be extended to a consistent action of G' symmetry on the fluxes. For some anomalies, this can be described in terms of dimensional reduction to d=1 SPT phases. We apply our method to several different symmetry groups with nontrivial anomalies, including G=U(1)×Z T 2 and G=U(1)×Z P 2, where Z T 2 and Z P 2 are time-reversal and d=2 reflection symmetry, respectively.« less

Analysis of genitourinary anomalies in patients with VACTERL (Vertebral anomalies, Anal atresia, Cardiac malformations, Tracheo-Esophageal fistula, Renal anomalies, Limb abnormalities) association

PubMed Central

Solomon, Benjamin D.; Raam, Manu S.; Pineda-Alvarez, Daniel E.

2010-01-01

Purpose The goal of this study was to describe a novel pattern of genitourinary (GU) anomalies in VACTERL association, which involves congenital anomalies affecting the vertebrae, anus, heart, trachea and esophagus, kidneys, and limbs. Procedures We collected clinical data on 105 patients diagnosed with VACTERL association and analyzed a subset of 89 patients who met more stringent inclusion criteria. Findings Twenty-one percent of patients have GU anomalies, which are more severe (but not more frequent) in females. Anomalies were noted in patients without malformations affecting the renal, lower vertebral, or lower gastrointestinal systems. Conclusions There should be a high index of suspicion for the presence of GU anomalies even in patient who do not have spatially similar malformations. PMID:21235632

Analysis of genitourinary anomalies in patients with VACTERL (Vertebral anomalies, Anal atresia, Cardiac malformations, Tracheo-Esophageal fistula, Renal anomalies, Limb abnormalities) association.

PubMed

Solomon, Benjamin D; Raam, Manu S; Pineda-Alvarez, Daniel E

2011-06-01

The goal of this study was to describe a novel pattern of genitourinary (GU) anomalies in VACTERL association,which involves congenital anomalies affecting the vertebrae,anus, heart, trachea and esophagus, kidneys, and limbs.We collected clinical data on 105 patients diagnosed with VACTERL association and analyzed a subset of 89 patients who met more stringent inclusion criteria. Twenty-one percent of patients have GU anomalies, which are more severe (but not more frequent) in females. Anomalies were noted in patients without malformations affecting the renal, lower vertebral, or lower gastrointestinal systems. There should be a high index of suspicion for the presence of GU anomalies even in patients who do not have spatially similar malformations.

Seismogenic structures of the central Apennines and its implication for seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Y.; Riaz, M. S.; Shan, B.

2017-12-01

The central Apennines belt is formed during the Miocene-to-Pliocene epoch under the environment where the Adriatic Plate collides with and plunges beneath the Eurasian Plate, eventually formed a fold and thrust belt. This active fold and thrust belt has experienced relatively frequent moderate-magnitude earthquakesover, as well as strong destructive earthquakes such as the 1997 Umbira-Marche sequence, the 2009 Mw 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake sequence, and three strong earthquakes occurred in 2016. Such high seismicity makes it one of the most active tectonic zones in the world. Moreover, most of these earthquakes are normal fault events with shallow depths, and most earthquakes occurred in the central Apennines are of lower seismic energy to moment ratio. What seismogenic structure causes such kind of seismic features? and how about the potential seismic hazard in the study region? In order to make in-depth understanding about the seismogenic structures in this reion, we collected seismic data from the INGV, Italy, to model the crustal structure, and to relocate the earthquakes. To improve the spatial resolution of the tomographic images, we collected travel times from 27627 earthquakes with M>1.7 recorded at 387 seismic stations. Double Difference Tomography (hereafter as DDT) is applied to build velocity structures and earthquake locations. Checkerboard test confirms that the spatial resolution between the depths range from 5 20km is better than 10km. The travel time residual is significantly decreased from 1208 ms to 70 ms after the inversion. Horizontal Vp images show that mostly earthquakes occurred in high anomalies zones, especially between 5 10km, whereas at the deeper depths, some of the earthquakes occurred in the low Vp anomalies. For Vs images, shallow earthquakes mainly occurred in low anomalies zone, at depths range of 10 15km, earthquakes are mainly concentrated in normal velocity or relatively lower anomalies zones. Moreover, mostly earthquakes occurred in high Poisson ratio zones, especially at shallower depths. Since high Poisson's ratio anomalies are usually correspondent to weaker zones, and mostly earthquakes are occurred at the shallow depths. Due to this reason, the strength should be lower, so that the seismic energy to moment ratio is also lower.

Preliminary correlations of MAGSAT anomalies with tectonic features of Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hastings, David A.

1982-01-01

An overview of the MAGSAT scalar anomaly map for Africa has suggested a correlation of MAGSAT anomalies with major crustal blocks of uplift or depression and different degrees of regional metamorphism. The strongest MAGSAT anomalies in Africa are closely correlated spatially with major tectonic features. Although a magnetic anomaly caused by a rectangular crustal block would be offset from the block's center by the effects of magnetic inclination, an anomaly caused by real crustal blocks of varying uplift, depression, and degree of regional metamorphism would be located nearer to the locus of greatest vertical movement and highest grade of metamorphism. Thus, the Bangui anomaly may be caused by a central old Precambrian shield, flanked to the north and south by two relatively young sedimentary basins.

Southern Ocean Climate and Sea Ice Anomalies Associated with the Southern Oscillation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwok, R.; Comiso, J. C.

2002-03-01

The anomalies in the climate and sea ice cover of the Southern Ocean and their relationships with the Southern Oscillation (SO) are investigated using a 17-yr dataset from 1982 to 1998. The polar climate anomalies are correlated with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and the composites of these anomalies are examined under the positive (SOI > 0), neutral (0 > SOI > 1), and negative (SOI < 1) phases of SOI. The climate dataset consists of sea level pressure, wind, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature fields, while the sea ice dataset describes its extent, concentration, motion, and surface temperature. The analysis depicts, for the first time, the spatial variability in the relationship of the above variables with the SOI. The strongest correlation between the SOI and the polar climate anomalies are found in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen, and Ross Seas. The composite fields reveal anomalies that are organized in distinct large-scale spatial patterns with opposing polarities at the two extremes of SOI, and suggest oscillations that are closely linked to the SO. Within these sectors, positive (negative) phases of the SOI are generally associated with lower (higher) sea level pressure, cooler (warmer) surface air temperature, and cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature in these sectors. Associations between these climate anomalies and the behavior of the Antarctic sea ice cover are evident. Recent anomalies in the sea ice cover that are clearly associated with the SOI include the following: the record decrease in the sea ice extent in the Bellingshausen Sea from mid-1988 to early 1991; the relationship between Ross Sea SST and the ENSO signal, and reduced sea ice concentration in the Ross Sea; and the shortening of the ice season in the eastern Ross Sea, Amundsen Sea, far western Weddell Sea and lengthening of the ice season in the western Ross Sea, Bellinghausen Sea, and central Weddell Sea gyre during the period 1988-94. Four ENSO episodes over the last 17 years contributed to a negative mean in the SOI (0.5). In each of these episodes, significant retreats in ice cover of the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas were observed showing a unique association of this region of the Antarctic with the Southern Oscillation.

Seismic Signatures of Hydrothermal Pathways Along the East Pacific Rise Between 9°16' and 9°56'N

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marjanović, Milena; Fuji, Nobuaki; Singh, Satish C.; Belahi, Thomas; Escartín, Javier

2017-12-01

We apply wave equation-based techniques to 2-D seismic data to characterize the nature of zero-age upper crust at the East Pacific Rise from 9°16' to 9°56'N. The final velocity model reveals a number of low-velocity anomalies, complex in shape, extending down to 1 km below the seafloor. We attribute them to the presence of hydrothermal flow. Depending on their spatial correlation with the previously identified tectonic discontinuities in bathymetry and presence of venting, we classify them as downgoing and upgoing pathways, respectively. This distinction is not always clear; within the third-order discontinuities at 9°20' and 9°37'N, both pathways may be present. The region north of 9°44'N, known for its magmatic robustness and volcanic activity, is represented by five low-velocity perturbations. Three of these anomalies are spatially correlated with the fourth-order discontinuities and attributed to the presence of the on-axis recharge zones. The remaining two anomalies underlie two vent clusters, marked as hydrothermally active sites after the last documented eruption event. These velocity anomalies can be thus identified as the up-flow pathways or at least their remnants. By comparing our results to the available interdisciplinary data sets, we show that the interaction between the tectono-magmatic and hydrothermal processes is not straightforward due to different timescales at which they operate. However, for developing, maintaining, and driving vigorous, high-temperature hydrothermal flow, the high crustal permeability and high thermal regime must coexist in time and space.

An investigation of MAGSAT and complementary data emphasizing precambrian shields and adjacent areas of West Africa and South America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hastings, D. A. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

The problems associated with the use of an interactive magnetic modeling program are reported and a publication summarizing the MAGSAT anomaly results for Africa and the possible tectonic associations of these anomalies is provided. An overview of the MAGSAT scalar anomaly map for Africa suggested a correlation of MAGSAT anomalies with major crustal blocks of uplift or depression and different degrees of regional metamorphism. The strongest MAGSAT anomalies in Africa are closely correlated spatially with major tectonic features. Results indicate that the Bangui anomaly may be caused by a central old Precambrian shield, flanked to the north and south by two relatively young sedimentary basins.

Spherical earth gravity and magnetic anomaly analysis by equivalent point source inversion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Von Frese, R. R. B.; Hinze, W. J.; Braile, L. W.

1981-01-01

To facilitate geologic interpretation of satellite elevation potential field data, analysis techniques are developed and verified in the spherical domain that are commensurate with conventional flat earth methods of potential field interpretation. A powerful approach to the spherical earth problem relates potential field anomalies to a distribution of equivalent point sources by least squares matrix inversion. Linear transformations of the equivalent source field lead to corresponding geoidal anomalies, pseudo-anomalies, vector anomaly components, spatial derivatives, continuations, and differential magnetic pole reductions. A number of examples using 1 deg-averaged surface free-air gravity anomalies of POGO satellite magnetometer data for the United States, Mexico, and Central America illustrate the capabilities of the method.

Large trench-parallel gravity variations predict seismogenic behavior in subduction zones.

PubMed

Song, Teh-Ru Alex; Simons, Mark

2003-08-01

We demonstrate that great earthquakes occur predominantly in regions with a strongly negative trench-parallel gravity anomaly (TPGA), whereas regions with strongly positive TPGA are relatively aseismic. These observations suggest that, over time scales up to at least 1 million years, spatial variations of seismogenic behavior within a given subduction zone are stationary and linked to the geological structure of the fore-arc. The correlations we observe are consistent with a model in which spatial variations in frictional properties on the plate interface control trench-parellel variations in fore-arc topography, gravity, and seismogenic behavior.

Modeling of spatio-temporal variation in plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007.

PubMed

Giorgi, Emanuele; Kreppel, Katharina; Diggle, Peter J; Caminade, Cyril; Ratsitorahina, Maherisoa; Rajerison, Minoarisoa; Baylis, Matthew

2016-11-01

Plague is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, which, during the fourteenth century, caused the deaths of an estimated 75-200 million people in Europe. Plague epidemics still occur in Africa, Asia and South America. Madagascar is today one of the most endemic countries, reporting nearly one third of the human cases worldwide from 2004 to 2009. The persistence of plague in Madagascar is associated with environmental and climatic conditions. In this paper we present a case study of the spatio-temporal analysis of plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007. We study the relationship of plague with temperature and precipitation anomalies, and with elevation. A joint spatio-temporal analysis of the data proves to be computationally intractable. We therefore develop a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process model, but then carry out marginal temporal and spatial analyses. We also introduce a spatially discrete approximation for Gaussian processes, whose parameters retain a spatially continuous interpretation. We find evidence of a cumulative effect, over time, of temperature anomalies on plague incidence, and of a very high relative risk of plague occurrence for locations above 800 m in elevation. Our approach provides a useful modeling framework to assess the relationship between exposures and plague risk, irrespective of the spatial resolution at which the latter has been recorded. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developmental dyslexia and vision

PubMed Central

Quercia, Patrick; Feiss, Léonard; Michel, Carine

2013-01-01

Developmental dyslexia affects almost 10% of school-aged children and represents a significant public health problem. Its etiology is unknown. The consistent presence of phonological difficulties combined with an inability to manipulate language sounds and the grapheme–phoneme conversion is widely acknowledged. Numerous scientific studies have also documented the presence of eye movement anomalies and deficits of perception of low contrast, low spatial frequency, and high frequency temporal visual information in dyslexics. Anomalies of visual attention with short visual attention spans have also been demonstrated in a large number of cases. Spatial orientation is also affected in dyslexics who manifest a preference for spatial attention to the right. This asymmetry may be so pronounced that it leads to a veritable neglect of space on the left side. The evaluation of treatments proposed to dyslexics whether speech or oriented towards the visual anomalies remains fragmentary. The advent of new explanatory theories, notably cerebellar, magnocellular, or proprioceptive, is an incentive for ophthalmologists to enter the world of multimodal cognition given the importance of the eye’s visual input. PMID:23690677

PCA and vTEC climatology at midnight over mid-latitude regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natali, M. P.; Meza, A.

2017-12-01

The effect of the thermospheric vertical neutral wind on vertical total electron content (vTEC) variations including longitudinal anomaly, remaining winter anomaly, mid-latitude summer night anomaly, and semiannual anomaly is studied at mid-latitude regions around zero magnetic declination at midnight during high solar activity. By using the principal component analysis (PCA) numerical technique, this work studies the spatial and temporal variations of the ionosphere at midnight over mid-latitude regions during 2000-2002. PCA is applied to a time series of global vTEC maps produced by the International Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Service. Four regions were studied in particular, each located at mid-latitude and approximately centered at zero magnetic declination, with two in the northern hemisphere and two in southern hemisphere, and all are located near and far from geomagnetic poles in each case. This technique provides an effective method to analyze the main ionospheric variabilities at mid-latitudes. PCA is also applied to the vTEC computed using the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) 2012 model, to analyze the capability of this model to represent ionospheric variabilities at mid-latitude. Also, the Horizontal Wind Model 2007 (HWM07) is used to improve our climatology interpretation, by analyzing the relationship between vTEC and thermospheric wind, both quantitatively and qualitatively. At midnight, the behavior of mean vTEC values strongly responds to vertical wind variation, experiencing a decrease of about 10-15% with the action of the positive vertical component of the field-aligned neutral wind lasting for 2 h in all regions except for Oceania. Notable results include: a significant increase toward higher latitudes during summer in the South America and Asia regions, associated with the mid-latitude summer night anomaly, and an increase toward higher latitudes in winter in the North America and Oceania regions, highlighting the remnant effect of the winter anomaly. Finally, the longitudinal variations of east-west differences, named longitudinal anomaly, show maximum values in March for North America, in December for South America and Oceania, and are not shown for Asia. Our results show that at mid-latitudes regions, the IRI model represents midnight ionospheric mean values with a similar spatial distribution, but the values are always lower than those obtained by GNSS. The differences between IRI and GNSS results include: the longitudinal anomaly is characterized by a stronger semiannual variation in both North America and South America, with a maximum in the equinoxes, while for the Asian region, the behavior is almost constant throughout the years, and finally, there is an absence of the winter anomaly remnant.

Occurrence and multivariate exploratory analysis of the natural radioactivity anomaly in the south coastal region of Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaniu, M. I.; Angeyo, K. H.; Darby, I. G.

2018-05-01

Characterized by a variety of rock formations, namely alkaline, igneous and sedimentary that contain significant deposits of monazite and pyrochlore ores, the south coastal region of Kenya may be regarded as highly heterogeneous with regard to its geochemistry, mineralogy as well as geological morphology. The region is one of the several alkaline carbonatite complexes of Kenya that are associated with high natural background radiation and therefore radioactivity anomaly. However, this high background radiation (HBR) anomaly has hardly been systematically assessed and delineated with regard to the spatial, geological, geochemical as well as anthropogenic variability and co-dependencies. We conducted wide-ranging in-situ gamma-ray spectrometric measurements in this area. The goal of the study was to assess the radiation exposure as well as determine the underlying natural radioactivity levels in the region. In this paper we report the occurrence, exploratory analysis and modeling to assess the multivariate geo-dependence and spatial variability of the radioactivity and associated radiation exposure. Unsupervised principal component analysis and ternary plots were utilized in the study. It was observed that areas which exhibit HBR anomalies are located along the south coast paved road and in the Mrima-Kiruku complex. These areas showed a trend towards enhanced levels of 232Th and 238U and low 40K. The spatial variability of the radioactivity anomaly was found to be mainly constrained by anthropogenic activities, underlying geology and geochemical processes in the terrestrial environment.

Unexpected and Unexplained Surface Temperature Variations on Mimas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howett, C.; Spencer, J. R.; Pearl, J. C.; Hurford, T. A.; Segura, M.; Cassini Cirs Team

2010-12-01

Until recently it was thought one of the most interesting things about Mimas, Saturn’s innermost classical icy moon, was its resemblance to Star Wars’ Death Star. However, a bizarre pattern of daytime surface temperatures was observed on Mimas using data obtained by Cassini’s Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) in February 2010. The observations were taken during Cassini’s closest ever encounter with Mimas (<10,000 km) and cover the daytime anti-Saturn hemisphere centered on longitude ~145° W. Instead of surface temperatures smoothly increasing throughout the morning and early afternoon, then cooling in the evening, as expected, a sharp V-shaped boundary is observed separating cooler midday and afternoon temperatures (~77 K) on the leading side from warmer morning temperatures (~92 K) on the trailing side. The boundary’s apex is centered at equatorial latitudes near the anti-Saturn point and extends to low north and south latitudes on the trailing side. Subtle differences in the surface colors have been observed that are roughly spatially correlated with the observed extent of the temperature anomaly, with the cooler regions tending to be bluer (Schenk et al., Submitted). However, visible-wavelength albedo is similar in the two regions, so albedo variations are probably not directly responsible for the thermal anomaly. It is more likely that thermal inertia variations produce the anomaly, with thermal inertia being unusually high in the region with anomalously low daytime temperatures. Comparison of the February 2010 CIRS data to previous lower spatial resolution data taken at different local times tentatively confirm that the cooler regions do indeed display higher thermal inertias. Bombardment of the surface by high energy electrons from Saturn’s radiation belts has been proposed to explain the observed color variations (Schenk et al., Submitted). Electrons above ~1 MeV preferentially impact Mimas’ leading hemisphere at low latitudes where they could cause surface defects. For this process to also explain the observed temperature differences it would have to affect the surface’s thermal inertia to a depth comparable to the diurnal thermal skin-depth (~0.5 cm). However, whether the formation of the giant Herschel crater (which lies in the middle of the observed portion of the cold region) contributed to the observed temperature anomaly or if electron bombardment alone is able to explain the thermal anomaly is currently unknown. Future CIRS observations should be able to map the full spatial extent of the thermal anomaly and clarify whether it is centered on (and thus likely related to) Herschel, or is centered on the trailing hemisphere and thus likely to be related to the observed color anomaly.

The European 2015 drought from a groundwater perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, Anne; Kumar, Rohini; Mishra, Vimal

2017-04-01

In 2015 central and eastern Europe were affected by severe drought. Impacts of the drought were felt across many sectors, incl. agriculture, drinking water supply, electricity production, navigation, fisheries, and recreation. This drought event has recently been studied from meteorological and streamflow perspective, but no analysis of the groundwater drought has been performed. This is not surprising because real-time groundwater level observations often are not available. In this study we use previously established spatially-explicit relationships between meteorological drought and groundwater drought to quantify the 2015 groundwater drought over two regions in southern Germany and eastern Netherlands. We also tested the applicability of the Gravity Recovery Climate Experiment (GRACE) Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) and GRACE-based groundwater anomalies to capture the spatial variability of the 2003 and 2015 drought events. We use the monthly groundwater observations from 2040 wells to establish the spatially varying optimal accumulation period between the Standardized Groundwater Index (SGI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at a 0.250 gridded scale. The resulting optimal accumulation periods range between 1 and more than 24 months, indicating strong spatial differences in groundwater response time to meteorological input over the region. Based on these optimal accumulation periods, we found that in Germany a uniform severe groundwater drought persisted for several months (i.e. SGI below the drought threshold of 20th percentile for almost all grid cells in August, September and October 2015), whereas the Netherlands appeared to have relatively high groundwater levels (never below the drought threshold of 20th percentile). The differences between this event and the European 2003 benchmark drought are striking. The 2003 groundwater drought was less uniformly pronounced, both in the Netherlands and Germany, with the regional averaged SGI above the 50th percentile. This is because slowly responding wells still were above average from the wet year of 2002-2003, which experienced severe flooding in central Europe. GRACE-TWS does show that both 2003 and 2015 were relatively dry, but the difference between Germany and the Netherlands in 2015 and the spatially-variable groundwater drought pattern in 2003 were not captured. This could be associated to the coarse spatial scale of GRACE. The simulated groundwater anomalies based on GRACE-TWS deviated considerably from the GRACE-TWS signal and from observed groundwater anomalies. These are therefore not suitable for use in real-time groundwater drought monitoring in our case study regions. Our study shows that the relationship between meteorological drought and groundwater drought can be used to quantify groundwater drought and that the 2015 groundwater drought in southern Germany was more severe than the 2003 drought, because of preconditions in slowly responding groundwater wells. For sustainable groundwater drought management strategies the use of groundwater level monitoring is needed to study the spatial variability of local groundwater drought, which mostly coincides with drought impacts.

Differences in the lithosphere seismic structure along the Brazilian continental margin in the South Atlantic from travel time seismic tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peres Rocha, M.; Azevedo, P. A. D.; Assumpcao, M.; Franca, G. S.; Marotta, G. S.

2016-12-01

Results of the P-wave travel-time seismic tomography method allowed observing differences in the seismic behavior of the lithosphere along the Brazilian continental margin in the South Atlantic. High velocity anomalies have predominance in the northern portion, which extends from the Rio de Janeiro to Alagoas States (between latitudes -22.5 and -8.5), and low velocity anomalies in the southern portion, which extends from Rio de Janeiro to Rio Grande do Sul States (between latitudes -30 and -22.5). Low velocities coincide spatially with the offshore high seismicity areas, as indicated by Assumpção (1998) and at the high velocities with low seismicity regions. The high velocity anomalies at northern portion are related to the cratonic and low-stretched lithosphere of San Francisco block that was connected to the Congo block before the opening of the Atlantic Ocean. Low velocities can be assigned to more weakened lithosphere, where it started the South Atlantic Ocean opening process. The oldest lithosphere in the South Atlantic, indicated by the magnetic anomalies of the oceanic floor, is higher in the southern part than in the northern part, suggesting that the continents in this region were separating, while the northern region was still connected to Africa, which could explain the lithospheric stretching process.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hermele, Michael; Chen, Xie

Here, we introduce a method, dubbed the flux-fusion anomaly test, to detect certain anomalous symmetry fractionalization patterns in two-dimensional symmetry-enriched topological (SET) phases. We focus on bosonic systems with Z2 topological order and a symmetry group of the form G=U(1)xG', where G' is an arbitrary group that may include spatial symmetries and/or time reversal. The anomalous fractionalization patterns we identify cannot occur in strictly d=2 systems but can occur at surfaces of d=3 symmetry-protected topological (SPT) phases. This observation leads to examples of d=3 bosonic topological crystalline insulators (TCIs) that, to our knowledge, have not previously been identified. In somemore » cases, these d=3 bosonic TCIs can have an anomalous superfluid at the surface, which is characterized by nontrivial projective transformations of the superfluid vortices under symmetry. The basic idea of our anomaly test is to introduce fluxes of the U(1) symmetry and to show that some fractionalization patterns cannot be extended to a consistent action of G' symmetry on the fluxes. For some anomalies, this can be described in terms of dimensional reduction to d=1 SPT phases. We apply our method to several different symmetry groups with nontrivial anomalies, including G=U(1)×Z T 2 and G=U(1)×Z P 2, where Z T 2 and Z P 2 are time-reversal and d=2 reflection symmetry, respectively.« less

High-accuracy 3D Fourier forward modeling of gravity field based on the Gauss-FFT technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Guangdong; Chen, Bo; Chen, Longwei; Liu, Jianxin; Ren, Zhengyong

2018-03-01

The 3D Fourier forward modeling of 3D density sources is capable of providing 3D gravity anomalies coincided with the meshed density distribution within the whole source region. This paper firstly derives a set of analytical expressions through employing 3D Fourier transforms for calculating the gravity anomalies of a 3D density source approximated by right rectangular prisms. To reduce the errors due to aliasing and imposed periodicity as well as edge effects in the Fourier domain modeling, we develop the 3D Gauss-FFT technique to the 3D gravity anomalies forward modeling. The capability and adaptability of this scheme are tested by simple synthetic models. The results show that the accuracy of the Fourier forward methods using the Gauss-FFT with 4 Gaussian-nodes (or more) is comparable to that of the spatial modeling. In addition, the "ghost" source effects in the 3D Fourier forward gravity field due to imposed periodicity of the standard FFT algorithm are remarkably depressed by the application of the 3D Gauss-FFT algorithm. More importantly, the execution times of the 4 nodes Gauss-FFT modeling are reduced by two orders of magnitude compared with the spatial forward method. It demonstrates that the improved Fourier method is an efficient and accurate forward modeling tool for the gravity field.

3D P-wave velocity structure of the crust and relocation of earthquakes in the Lushan, China, source area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xiangwei; Wang, Xiaona; Zhang, Wenbo

2016-04-01

Many researchers have investigated the Lushan source area with geological and geophysical approaches since the 2013 Lushan, China, earthquake happened. Compared with the previous tomographic studies, we have used a much large data set and an updated tomographic method to determine a small scale three-dimensional P wave velocity structure with spatial resolution less than 5km, which plays the important role for understanding the deep structure and the genetic mechanism beneath the Lushan area. The double difference seismic tomography method is applied to 50,711 absolute first arrival P wave arrival times and 7,294,691 high quality relative P arrival times of 5,285 events of Lushan seismic sequence to simultaneously determine the detailed crustal 3D P wave velocity structure and the hypocenter parameters in the Lushan seismic area. This method takes account of the path anomaly biases explicitly by making full use of valuable information of seismic wave propagation jointly with absolute and relative arrival time data. Our results show that the Lushan mainshock locates at 30.28N, 103.98E, with the depth of 16.38km. The front edge of aftershock in the northeast of mainshock present a spade with a steep dip angle, the aftershocks' extended length is about 12km. In the southwest of Lushan mainshock, the front edge of aftershock in low velocity zone slope gently, the aftershocks' extended length is about 23km. Our high-resolution tomographic model not only displays the general features contained in the previous models, but also reveals some new features. The Tianquan, Shuangshi and Daguan line lies in the transition zone between high velocity anomalies to the southeast and low velocity anomalies to the northwest at the ground surface. An obvious high-velocity anomaly is visible in Daxing area. With the depth increasing, Baoxing high velocity anomaly extends to Lingguan, while the southeast of the Tianquan, Shuangshi and Daguan line still shows low velocity. The high-velocity anomalies beneath Baoxing and Daxing connect each other in 10km depth, which makes the contrast between high and low velocity anomalies more sharp. Above 20km depth the velocity structure in southwest and northeast segment of mainshock shows a big difference: low-velocity anomalies are dominated the southwest segment, while high-velocity anomalies rule the northeast segment. Lushan aftershocks in southwest are distributed in low-velocity anomalies or the transition belt: the footwall represents low-velocity anomalies, while the hanging wall shows high-velocity anomalies. The northeastern aftershocks are distributed at the boundary between high-velocity anomalies in Baoxing and Daxing area. The P wave velocity structure of Lushan seismic area shows obviously lateral heterogeneity. The P wave velocity anomalies represent close relationship with topographic relief and geological structure. In Baoxingarea the complex rocks correspond obvious high-velocity anomalies extending down to 15km depth，while the Cenozoic rocks are correlated with low-velocity anomalies. Lushan mainshock locates at the leading edge of a low-velocity anomaly surrounded by the Baoxing and Daxing high-velocity anomalies. The main seismogenic layer dips to northwest. Meanwhile, a recoil seismic belt dips to southeast above the main seismogenic layer exists at the lower boundary of Baoxing high-velocity anomaly.

Forecast experiment: do temporal and spatial b value variations along the Calaveras fault portend M ≥ 4.0 earthquakes?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, Tom

2007-01-01

The power law distribution of earthquake magnitudes and frequencies is a fundamental scaling relationship used for forecasting. However, can its slope (b value) be used on individual faults as a stress indicator? Some have concluded that b values drop just before large shocks. Others suggested that temporally stable low b value zones identify future large-earthquake locations. This study assesses the frequency of b value anomalies portending M ≥ 4.0 shocks versus how often they do not. I investigated M ≥ 4.0 Calaveras fault earthquakes because there have been 25 over the 37-year duration of the instrumental catalog on the most active southern half of the fault. With that relatively large sample, I conducted retrospective time and space earthquake forecasts. I calculated temporal b value changes in 5-km-radius cylindrical volumes of crust that were significant at 90% confidence, but these changes were poor forecasters of M ≥ 4.0 earthquakes. M ≥ 4.0 events were as likely to happen at times of high b values as they were at low ones. However, I could not rule out a hypothesis that spatial b value anomalies portend M ≥ 4.0 events; of 20 M ≥ 4 shocks that could be studied, 6 to 8 (depending on calculation method) occurred where b values were significantly less than the spatial mean, 1 to 2 happened above the mean, and 10 to 13 occurred within 90% confidence intervals of the mean and were thus inconclusive. Thus spatial b value variation might be a useful forecast tool, but resolution is poor, even on seismically active faults.

Delineating high-density areas in spatial Poisson fields from strip-transect sampling using indicator geostatistics: application to unexploded ordnance removal.

PubMed

Saito, Hirotaka; McKenna, Sean A

2007-07-01

An approach for delineating high anomaly density areas within a mixture of two or more spatial Poisson fields based on limited sample data collected along strip transects was developed. All sampled anomalies were transformed to anomaly count data and indicator kriging was used to estimate the probability of exceeding a threshold value derived from the cdf of the background homogeneous Poisson field. The threshold value was determined so that the delineation of high-density areas was optimized. Additionally, a low-pass filter was applied to the transect data to enhance such segmentation. Example calculations were completed using a controlled military model site, in which accurate delineation of clusters of unexploded ordnance (UXO) was required for site cleanup.

Operationalizing crop monitoring system for informed decision making related to food security in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qamer, F. M.; Shah, S. N. Pd.; Murthy, M. S. R.; Baidar, T.; Dhonju, K.; Hari, B. G.

2014-11-01

In Nepal, two thirds of the total population depend on agriculture for their livelihoods and more than one third of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) comes from the agriculture sector. However, effective agriculture production across the country remains a serious challenge due to various factors, such as a high degree of spatial and temporal climate variability, irrigated and rain-fed agriculture systems, farmers' fragile social and economic fabric, and unique mountain practices. ICIMOD through SERVIR-Himalaya initiative with collaboration of Ministry of Agricultural Development (MoAD) is working on developing a comprehensive crop monitoring system which aims to provide timely information on crop growth and drought development conditions. This system analyzes historical climate and crop conditions patterns and compares this data with the current growing season to provide timely assessment of crop growth. Using remote sensing data for vegetation indices, temperature and rainfall, the system generated anomaly maps are inferred to predict the increase or shortfall in production. Comparisons can be made both spatially and in graphs and figures at district and Village Developmental Committee (VDC) levels. Timely information on possible anomaly in crop production is later used by the institutions like Ministry of Agricultural Development, Nepal and World Food Programme, Nepal to trigger appropriate management response. Future potential includes integrating data on agricultural inputs, socioeconomics, demographics, and transportation to holistically assess food security in the region served by SERVIR-Himalaya.

Analyzing thermal anomaly of the Nepal Mw7.9 earthquake on 25 April 2015 using OLR data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SUN, K.; Shan, X.; Ouzounov, D.

2016-12-01

An Mw7.9 earthquake, located at the front of the India-Eurasia collision belt, hit Nepal on April 25th, 2015. The temporal and spatial variations of outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) around the time of Nepal earthquake Mw7.9 April 25th, 2015 have been analyzed based on nine years data (2006-2014) using combined Robust Satellite Technique (RST) and vorticity methods. The results show that on April 4th an increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed from the satellite data and an anomaly developed on south of the epicenter. The maximum anomalies, located westward from the epicenter about 100 kilometers, were found on April 24th. Mechanisms for triggering the event are not yet known and still many theoretical questions on the quantitative link between long wave radiation and tectonic stress need to be answered. Earthquake prediction is still a challenging work to us. Much work needs to be done in how to obtain the seismic precursor information.

Use of MAGSAT anomaly data for crustal structure and mineral resources in the US Midcontinent

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carmichael, R. S. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The analysis and preliminary interpretation of investigator-B MAGSAT data are addressed. The data processing included: (1) removal of spurious data points; (2) statistical smoothing along individual data tracks, to reduce the effect of geomagnetic transient disturbances; (3) comparison of data profiles spatially coincident in track location but acquired at different times; (4) reduction of data by weighted averaging to a grid with 1 deg xl deg latitude/longitude spacing, and with elevations interpolated and weighted to a common datum of 400 km; (5) wavelength filtering; and (6) reduction of the anomaly map to the magnetic pole. Agreement was found between a magnitude data anomaly map and a reduce-to-the-pole map supporting the general assumption that, on a large scale (long wavelength), it is induced crustal magnetization which is responsible for major anamalies. Anomalous features are identified and explanations are suggested with regard to crustal structure, petrologic characteristics, and Curie temperature isotherms.

Relative contributions of synoptic and intraseasonal variations to strong cold events over eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Lei; Wu, Renguang; Jiao, Yang

2018-06-01

The present study investigates the relative roles of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) and synoptic variations in strong cold events over eastern China during the boreal winter. The ISOs and synoptic variations explain about 55% and 20% of the total area-mean temperature anomaly in eastern China, respectively. The advection of synoptic winds on synoptic temperature gradients has a leading contribution to the temperature decrease before the cold events and thus the synoptic variations are important in determining the time of peak cold anomalies. The ISOs have a larger role in sustaining the cold events. The height anomalies associated with ISOs and synoptic variations are manifested as Rossby wave trains propagating along the polar front jet over the Eurasian continent before the cold events. They both contribute to the deepening of the East Asian trough and the development of cold events. Compared to the ISO wave train, the synoptic wave train has a smaller spatial scale and moves faster. There are obvious intraseasonal signals in the stratosphere about 1 week before the cold events over eastern China. Large negative height anomalies associated with the weakening of the polar vortex are observed over the North Atlantic. These anomalies move eastwards and propagate downwards after reaching the west coast of Europe. The downward moving stratospheric signal triggers height anomalies in the troposphere over the entrance region of the polar front jet. Then the anomalies propagate towards East Asia along the wave train, contributing to the intensification of the Siberian high and the East Asian trough and the occurrence of cold events over eastern China.

Data-driven modeling of surface temperature anomaly and solar activity trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, Michael J.

2012-01-01

A novel two-step modeling scheme is used to reconstruct and analyze surface temperature and solar activity data at global, hemispheric, and regional scales. First, the self-organizing map (SOM) technique is used to extend annual modern climate data from the century to millennial scale. The SOM component planes are used to identify and quantify strength of nonlinear relations among modern surface temperature anomalies (<150 years), tropical and extratropical teleconnections, and Palmer Drought Severity Indices (0–2000 years). Cross-validation of global sea and land surface temperature anomalies verifies that the SOM is an unbiased estimator with less uncertainty than the magnitude of anomalies. Second, the quantile modeling of SOM reconstructions reveal trends and periods in surface temperature anomaly and solar activity whose timing agrees with published studies. Temporal features in surface temperature anomalies, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, and Modern Warming Period, appear at all spatial scales but whose magnitudes increase when moving from ocean to land, from global to regional scales, and from southern to northern regions. Some caveats that apply when interpreting these data are the high-frequency filtering of climate signals based on quantile model selection and increased uncertainty when paleoclimatic data are limited. Even so, all models find the rate and magnitude of Modern Warming Period anomalies to be greater than those during the Medieval Warm Period. Lastly, quantile trends among reconstructed equatorial Pacific temperature profiles support the recent assertion of two primary El Niño Southern Oscillation types. These results demonstrate the efficacy of this alternative modeling approach for reconstructing and interpreting scale-dependent climate variables.

Spatiotemporal Detection of Unusual Human Population Behavior Using Mobile Phone Data

PubMed Central

Dobra, Adrian; Williams, Nathalie E.; Eagle, Nathan

2015-01-01

With the aim to contribute to humanitarian response to disasters and violent events, scientists have proposed the development of analytical tools that could identify emergency events in real-time, using mobile phone data. The assumption is that dramatic and discrete changes in behavior, measured with mobile phone data, will indicate extreme events. In this study, we propose an efficient system for spatiotemporal detection of behavioral anomalies from mobile phone data and compare sites with behavioral anomalies to an extensive database of emergency and non-emergency events in Rwanda. Our methodology successfully captures anomalous behavioral patterns associated with a broad range of events, from religious and official holidays to earthquakes, floods, violence against civilians and protests. Our results suggest that human behavioral responses to extreme events are complex and multi-dimensional, including extreme increases and decreases in both calling and movement behaviors. We also find significant temporal and spatial variance in responses to extreme events. Our behavioral anomaly detection system and extensive discussion of results are a significant contribution to the long-term project of creating an effective real-time event detection system with mobile phone data and we discuss the implications of our findings for future research to this end. PMID:25806954

Global terrestrial water storage connectivity revealed using complex climate network analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, A. Y.; Chen, J.; Donges, J.

2015-07-01

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) exerts a key control in global water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. Although certain causal relationship exists between precipitation and TWS, the latter quantity also reflects impacts of anthropogenic activities. Thus, quantification of the spatial patterns of TWS will not only help to understand feedbacks between climate dynamics and the hydrologic cycle, but also provide new insights and model calibration constraints for improving the current land surface models. This work is the first attempt to quantify the spatial connectivity of TWS using the complex network theory, which has received broad attention in the climate modeling community in recent years. Complex networks of TWS anomalies are built using two global TWS data sets, a remote sensing product that is obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, and a model-generated data set from the global land data assimilation system's NOAH model (GLDAS-NOAH). Both data sets have 1° × 1° grid resolutions and cover most global land areas except for permafrost regions. TWS networks are built by first quantifying pairwise correlation among all valid TWS anomaly time series, and then applying a cutoff threshold derived from the edge-density function to retain only the most important features in the network. Basinwise network connectivity maps are used to illuminate connectivity of individual river basins with other regions. The constructed network degree centrality maps show the TWS anomaly hotspots around the globe and the patterns are consistent with recent GRACE studies. Parallel analyses of networks constructed using the two data sets reveal that the GLDAS-NOAH model captures many of the spatial patterns shown by GRACE, although significant discrepancies exist in some regions. Thus, our results provide further measures for constraining the current land surface models, especially in data sparse regions.

The Tropopause Inversion Layer in Baroclinic Life Cycle Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wirth, Volkmar; Erler, Andre

2010-05-01

The Tropopause Inversion Layer (TIL) is a region of enhanced static stability just above the thermal tropopause. It is a ubiquitous feature in midlatitudes and is well characterized by observations; however, it still lacks a full theoretical explanation. The current study uses adiabatic baroclinic life-cycle experiments in order to investigate dynamical mechanisms that lead to the formation of a TIL. Consistent with earlier results, no TIL is found above cyclonic anomalies, while a pronounced TIL is found above anticyclonic anomalies early during the life cycle. Interestingly, regarding tropopause based global mean profiles, a TIL can be seen only much later during the life cycle, at a time when wave breaking starts to occur. There is a significant rise of the thermal tropopause, which is spatially and temporally correlated with TIL formation. In contrast, the dynamical tropopause does not rise significantly and does not exhibit a TIL in the global mean. The results of these experiments are interpreted using earlier results about the nonlinear dependence of the TIL amplitude on the scale of the tropopause anomaly. The analysis suggests that the TIL (as a global mean feature) is linked to a strongly asymmetric distribution of cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies, which occurs after the wave breaking event.

Assimilation of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Observations into a Land Surface Model for the Assessment of Regional Flood Potential

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reager, John T.; Thomas, Alys C.; Sproles, Eric A.; Rodell, Matthew; Beaudoing, Hiroko K.; Li, Bailing; Famiglietti, James S.

2015-01-01

We evaluate performance of the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) under flood conditions after the assimilation of observations of the terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Assimilation offers three key benefits for the viability of GRACE observations to operational applications: (1) near-real time analysis; (2) a downscaling of GRACE's coarse spatial resolution; and (3) state disaggregation of the vertically-integrated TWSA. We select the 2011 flood event in the Missouri river basin as a case study, and find that assimilation generally made the model wetter in the months preceding flood. We compare model outputs with observations from 14 USGS groundwater wells to assess improvements after assimilation. Finally, we examine disaggregated water storage information to improve the mechanistic understanding of event generation. Validation establishes that assimilation improved the model skill substantially, increasing regional groundwater anomaly correlation from 0.58 to 0.86. For the 2011 flood event in the Missouri river basin, results show that groundwater and snow water equivalent were contributors to pre-event flood potential, providing spatially-distributed early warning information.

Multivariate pattern analysis reveals subtle brain anomalies relevant to the cognitive phenotype in neurofibromatosis type 1.

PubMed

Duarte, João V; Ribeiro, Maria J; Violante, Inês R; Cunha, Gil; Silva, Eduardo; Castelo-Branco, Miguel

2014-01-01

Neurofibromatosis Type 1 (NF1) is a common genetic condition associated with cognitive dysfunction. However, the pathophysiology of the NF1 cognitive deficits is not well understood. Abnormal brain structure, including increased total brain volume, white matter (WM) and grey matter (GM) abnormalities have been reported in the NF1 brain. These previous studies employed univariate model-driven methods preventing detection of subtle and spatially distributed differences in brain anatomy. Multivariate pattern analysis allows the combination of information from multiple spatial locations yielding a discriminative power beyond that of single voxels. Here we investigated for the first time subtle anomalies in the NF1 brain, using a multivariate data-driven classification approach. We used support vector machines (SVM) to classify whole-brain GM and WM segments of structural T1 -weighted MRI scans from 39 participants with NF1 and 60 non-affected individuals, divided in children/adolescents and adults groups. We also employed voxel-based morphometry (VBM) as a univariate gold standard to study brain structural differences. SVM classifiers correctly classified 94% of cases (sensitivity 92%; specificity 96%) revealing the existence of brain structural anomalies that discriminate NF1 individuals from controls. Accordingly, VBM analysis revealed structural differences in agreement with the SVM weight maps representing the most relevant brain regions for group discrimination. These included the hippocampus, basal ganglia, thalamus, and visual cortex. This multivariate data-driven analysis thus identified subtle anomalies in brain structure in the absence of visible pathology. Our results provide further insight into the neuroanatomical correlates of known features of the cognitive phenotype of NF1. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Origin and evolution of the Perm Anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flament, N. E.; Williams, S.; Müller, D.; Gurnis, M.; Bower, D. J.

2016-12-01

Earth's lower mantle is characterized by two large-low-shear velocity provinces (LLSVPs, 15000 km in diameter, 500-1000 km high) located under Africa and the Pacific Ocean. In addition, a single, much smaller ( 1000 km in diameter, 500 km high) deep mantle structure named the "Perm Anomaly" was recently identified through the analysis of seismic tomography models. This discovery challenges current reconstructions of the evolution of the plate-mantle system that invoke plumes rising from the edges of the two LLSVPs, assumed spatially fixed and non-deforming in time. Here, we present mantle flow models constrained by tectonic reconstructions that reproduce the present-day structure of the lower mantle, and show a Perm-like anomaly. In the dynamic models, spanning 230 Myr, subducting slabs deform an initially uniform basal layer containing 2% of the volume of the mantle. Basal density, convective vigour, mantle viscosity, absolute plate motions, and relative plate motions are varied in a series of model cases. We use cluster analysis to classify equally-spaced points on Earth's surface into two groups with similar variations in present-day temperature between 1000-2800 km depth, for each model case. The procedure reveals a high-temperature cluster and a low-temperature cluster with respect to ambient mantle temperature below 2400 km depth. The spatial extent of the high-temperature cluster is in first-order agreement with the outlines of the LLSVPs and of the Perm Anomaly revealed by a similar cluster analysis of seven tomography models. Model success is quantified by computing the accuracy (between 0.56 and 0.76) of the temperature clusters in predicting the low-velocity cluster obtained from tomography, and qualified by the occurrence of a separate Perm-like anomaly. The anomaly formed in isolation prior to 150 Ma within a long-lived subduction network 22000 km in circumference composed of the Mongol-Okhotsk subduction along Eurasia to the west, northern Tethys subduction to the south, and east Asia subduction to the east, then migrated 2500 km westward at an average rate of 1.7 cm/yr, indicating a greater mobility of deep mantle structures than previously recognized. We infer that the mobile Perm Anomaly could be linked to the Emeishan volcanics, in contrast to the previously proposed Siberian Traps.

Interdecadal variability of El Niño onset and its impact on monsoon systems over areas encircling the Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Jiaxi; Xu, Jianjun; Guan, Zhaoyong; Powell, Alfred M.

2016-10-01

Based on previous study by Xu and Chan (J Clim 14:418-433, 2001), two types of El Niño distinguished by the onset time, a Spring (SP) type and a Summer (SU) type, have been investigated from 1871 through 2011. As can be classified by the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature anomaly into the Warm Pool (WP) and Cold Tongue (CT) El Niño, the temporal features of the CT are dominated by the SP events whereas the SU events mostly display the spatial pattern of WP or Mixed events. The approximate 140-year data analysis shows that the frequency of SP events tends to increase in the most recent 30 years (1980-2009) while the SU events show very strong activity in the beginning of the twentieth century (1900-1929), which are closely associated with the decadal changes in oceanic and atmospheric background conditions. The air-sea processes indicate that the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between tropical and extratropical Pacific Ocean on decadal time scales is related to the sea level pressure distribution, which tends to produce wind anomalies. The wind anomalies in turn affect the SST anomalies on inter-annual time scales over the equatorial areas and finally result in the early onset of El Niño in SP time or late onset of El Nino in SU time. A spring onset El Niño favors a Kelvin wave that propagates across the basin and a summer onset favors a Kelvin wave that does not traverse the basin or the related effects are not strong enough. The early or late onset of El Niño significantly impacts the precipitation distribution correlated with the monsoon systems including the Asian-Australian monsoon and North-South American monsoon. The El Niño-monsoon relationship is modulated by decadal changes in atmospheric and oceanic background conditions. The precipitation in the monsoonal area circling the Pacific Ocean exhibits characteristic quasi-biennial variations that are closely associated with the onset time of El Niño events, especially with the early onset of El Niño. For the Spring (SP) type, drought is observed over the central China, Australia, southwestern North America and northern South America in boreal summer, but the opposite pattern appears in the subsequent summer of the following year.

Exploring space-time structure of human mobility in urban space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, J. B.; Yuan, J.; Wang, Y.; Si, H. B.; Shan, X. M.

2011-03-01

Understanding of human mobility in urban space benefits the planning and provision of municipal facilities and services. Due to the high penetration of cell phones, mobile cellular networks provide information for urban dynamics with a large spatial extent and continuous temporal coverage in comparison with traditional approaches. The original data investigated in this paper were collected by cellular networks in a southern city of China, recording the population distribution by dividing the city into thousands of pixels. The space-time structure of urban dynamics is explored by applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to the original data, from temporal and spatial perspectives between which there is a dual relation. Based on the results of the analysis, we have discovered four underlying rules of urban dynamics: low intrinsic dimensionality, three categories of common patterns, dominance of periodic trends, and temporal stability. It implies that the space-time structure can be captured well by remarkably few temporal or spatial predictable periodic patterns, and the structure unearthed by PCA evolves stably over time. All these features play a critical role in the applications of forecasting and anomaly detection.

Medium-range Performance of the Global NWP Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Jang, T.; Kim, J.; Kim, Y.

2017-12-01

The medium-range performance of the global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model in the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) is investigated. The performance is based on the prediction of the extratropical circulation. The mean square error is expressed by sum of spatial variance of discrepancy between forecasts and observations and the square of the mean error (ME). Thus, it is important to investigate the ME effect in order to understand the model performance. The ME is expressed by the subtraction of an anomaly from forecast difference against the real climatology. It is found that the global model suffers from a severe systematic ME in medium-range forecasts. The systematic ME is dominant in the entire troposphere in all months. Such ME can explain at most 25% of root mean square error. We also compare the extratropical ME distribution with that from other NWP centers. NWP models exhibit similar spatial ME structure each other. It is found that the spatial ME pattern is highly correlated to that of an anomaly, implying that the ME varies with seasons. For example, the correlation coefficient between ME and anomaly ranges from -0.51 to -0.85 by months. The pattern of the extratropical circulation also has a high correlation to an anomaly. The global model has trouble in faithfully simulating extratropical cyclones and blockings in the medium-range forecast. In particular, the model has a hard to simulate an anomalous event in medium-range forecasts. If we choose an anomalous period for a test-bed experiment, we will suffer from a large error due to an anomaly.

Use of space-time models to investigate the stability of patterns of disease.

PubMed

Abellan, Juan Jose; Richardson, Sylvia; Best, Nicky

2008-08-01

The use of Bayesian hierarchical spatial models has become widespread in disease mapping and ecologic studies of health-environment associations. In this type of study, the data are typically aggregated over an extensive time period, thus neglecting the time dimension. The output of purely spatial disease mapping studies is therefore the average spatial pattern of risk over the period analyzed, but the results do not inform about, for example, whether a high average risk was sustained over time or changed over time. We investigated how including the time dimension in disease-mapping models strengthens the epidemiologic interpretation of the overall pattern of risk. We discuss a class of Bayesian hierarchical models that simultaneously characterize and estimate the stable spatial and temporal patterns as well as departures from these stable components. We show how useful rules for classifying areas as stable can be constructed based on the posterior distribution of the space-time interactions. We carry out a simulation study to investigate the sensitivity and specificity of the decision rules we propose, and we illustrate our approach in a case study of congenital anomalies in England. Our results confirm that extending hierarchical disease-mapping models to models that simultaneously consider space and time leads to a number of benefits in terms of interpretation and potential for detection of localized excesses.

Analysis of variability of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, Georgina; Cressie, Noel

2016-11-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean is a key component of many global climate models and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. We shall analyse SST for the period November 1981-December 2014. To study the temporal variability of the ENSO phenomenon, we have selected a subregion of the tropical Pacific Ocean, namely the Niño 3.4 region, as it is thought to be the area where SST anomalies indicate most clearly ENSO's influence on the global atmosphere. SST anomalies, obtained by subtracting the appropriate monthly averages from the data, are the focus of the majority of previous analyses of the Pacific and other oceans' SSTs. Preliminary data analysis showed that not only Niño 3.4 spatial means but also Niño 3.4 spatial variances varied with month of the year. In this article, we conduct an analysis of the raw SST data and introduce diagnostic plots (here, plots of variability vs. central tendency). These plots show strong negative dependence between the spatial standard deviation and the spatial mean. Outliers are present, so we consider robust regression to obtain intercept and slope estimates for the 12 individual months and for all-months-combined. Based on this mean-standard deviation relationship, we define a variance-stabilizing transformation. On the transformed scale, we describe the Niño 3.4 SST time series with a statistical model that is linear, heteroskedastic, and dynamical.

Response of Global Lightning Activity Observed by the TRMM/LIS During Warm and Cold ENSO Phases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chronis, Themis G.; Cecil, Dan; Goodman, Steven J.; Buechler, Dennis

2007-01-01

This paper investigates the response of global lightning activity to the transition from the warm (January February March-JFM 1998) to the cold (JFM 1999) ENSO phase. The nine-year global lightning climatology for these months from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) provides the observational baseline. Flash rate density is computed on a 5.0x5.0 degree lat/lon grid within the LIS coverage area (between approx.37.5 N and S) for each three month period. The flash rate density anomalies from this climatology are examined for these months in 1998 and 1999. The observed lightning anomalies spatially match the documented general circulation features that accompany the warm and cold ENSO events. During the warm ENSO phase the dominant positive lightning anomalies are located mostly over the Western Hemisphere and more specifically over Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Northern Mid-Atlantic. We further investigate specifically the Northern Mid-Atlantic related anomaly features since these show strong relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Furthermore these observed anomaly patterns show strong spatial agreement with anomalous upper level (200 mb) cold core cyclonic circulations. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies during the warm ENSO phase also affect the lightning activity, but this is mostly observed near coastal environments. Over the open tropical oceans, there is climatologically less lightning and the anomalies are less pronounced. Warm ENSO related anomalies over the Eastern Hemisphere are most prominent over the South China coast. The transition to the cold ENSO phase illustrates the detected lightning anomalies to be more pronounced over East and West Pacific. A comparison of total global lightning between warm and cold ENSO phase reveals no significant difference, although prominent regional anomalies are located over mostly oceanic environments. All three tropical "chimneys" (Maritime Continent, Central Africa, and Amazon Basin) do not show any particular response to this transition.

Women Match Men when Learning a Spatial Skill

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spence, Ian; Yu, Jingjie Jessica; Feng, Jing; Marshman, Jeff

2009-01-01

Meta-analytic studies have concluded that although training improves spatial cognition in both sexes, the male advantage generally persists. However, because some studies run counter to this pattern, a closer examination of the anomaly is warranted. The authors investigated the acquisition of a basic skill (spatial selective attention) using a…

Cool-Season Moisture Delivery and Multi-Basin Streamflow Anomalies in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malevich, Steven B.

Widespread droughts can have a significant impact on western United States streamflow, but the causes of these events are not fully understood. This dissertation examines streamflow from multiple western US basins and establishes the robust, leading modes of variability in interannual streamflow throughout the past century. I show that approximately 50% of this variability is associated with spatially widespread streamflow anomalies that are statistically independent from streamflow's response to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO-teleconnection accounts for approximately 25% of the interannual variability in streamflow, across this network. These atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the most spatially widespread variability are associated with the Aleutian low and the persistent coastal atmospheric ridge in the Pacific Northwest. I use a watershed segmentation algorithm to explicitly track the position and intensity of these features and compare their variability to the multi-basin streamflow variability. Results show that latitudinal shifts in the coastal atmospheric ridge are more strongly associated with streamflow's north-south dipole response to ENSO variability while more spatially widespread anomalies in streamflow most strongly relate to seasonal changes in the coastal ridge intensity. This likely reflects persistent coastal ridge blocking of cool-season precipitation into western US river basins. I utilize the 35 model runs of the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESMLE) to determine whether the model ensemble simulates the anomalously strong coastal ridges and extreme widespread wintertime precipitation anomalies found in the observation record. Though there is considerable bias in the CESMLE, the CESMLE runs simulate extremely widespread dry precipitation anomalies with a frequency of approximately one extreme event per century during the historical simulations (1920 - 2005). These extremely widespread dry events correspond significantly with anomalously intense coastal atmospheric ridges. The results from these three papers connect widespread interannual streamflow anomalies in the western US--and especially extremely widespread streamflow droughts--with semi-permanent atmospheric ridge anomalies near the coastal Pacific Northwest. This is important to western US water managers because these widespread events appear to have been a robust feature of the past century. The semi-permanent atmospheric features associated with these widespread dry streamflow anomalies are projected to change position significantly in the next century as a response to global climate change. This may change widespread streamflow anomaly characteristic in the western US, though my results do not show evidence of these changes within the instrument record of last century.

Heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of desertification in spatially explicit data.

PubMed

Seekell, David A; Dakos, Vasilis

2015-06-01

Regime shifts are abrupt transitions between alternate ecosystem states including desertification in arid regions due to drought or overgrazing. Regime shifts may be preceded by statistical anomalies such as increased autocorrelation, indicating declining resilience and warning of an impending shift. Tests for conditional heteroskedasticity, a type of clustered variance, have proven powerful leading indicators for regime shifts in time series data, but an analogous indicator for spatial data has not been evaluated. A spatial analog for conditional heteroskedasticity might be especially useful in arid environments where spatial interactions are critical in structuring ecosystem pattern and process. We tested the efficacy of a test for spatial heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of regime shifts with simulated data from spatially extended vegetation models with regular and scale-free patterning. These models simulate shifts from extensive vegetative cover to bare, desert-like conditions. The magnitude of spatial heteroskedasticity increased consistently as the modeled systems approached a regime shift from vegetated to desert state. Relative spatial autocorrelation, spatial heteroskedasticity increased earlier and more consistently. We conclude that tests for spatial heteroskedasticity can contribute to the growing toolbox of early warning indicators for regime shifts analyzed with spatially explicit data.

Geophysics: Timing of the Martian dynamo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, G.; Russell, C. T.; Moore, W. B.

2000-12-01

On Mars, the strong magnetization in the highland crust of the southern hemisphere and the absence of magnetic anomalies at the Hellas and Argyre impact basins have been taken as signs that the core dynamo that once drove the planet's magnetic field turned off more than 4 billion years (Gyr) ago. Here, we argue instead that the Martian dynamo turned on less than 4 Gyr ago and turned off at an unknown time since then. High spatial resolution magnetometry in both Martian hemispheres is needed to reveal the true history of the Martian dynamo.

A population-based study of prevalence trends and geospatial analysis of hypospadias and cryptorchidism compared with non-endocrine mediated congenital anomalies.

PubMed

Lane, Ciaran; Boxall, James; MacLellan, Dawn; Anderson, Peter A; Dodds, Linda; Romao, Rodrigo L P

2017-06-01

Several reports have suggested an increase in the prevalence of hypospadias and cryptorchidism over the last few decades. Endocrine disruption caused by exposure to environmental chemicals has been postulated as a possible cause. The objectives of our study were: 1) to determine whether the prevalence of hypospadias and cryptorchidism is increasing compared with other congenital anomalies not known to be mediated by endocrine factors; and 2) to perform a geospatial analysis of these congenital malformations looking for clustering that could offer insight into environmental risk factors. Data were obtained from the Nova Scotia ATLEE Perinatal Database containing the perinatal records of all live births in Nova Scotia, Canada since 1988. Records from 1988 to 2013 defined the study cohort. Overall prevalence rates and prevalence trends by year were calculated for hypospadias, cryptorchidism, gastroschisis, and clubfoot. County of residence was collected and spatial autocorrelation testing for clustering was performed for each of the congenital anomalies. There were 258,147 live births during the study period. Overall prevalence rates for the four malformations over the study period were: hypospadias 78 per 10,000 male births, cryptorchidism 75 per 10,000 male births, clubfoot 24 per 10,000 total births, and gastroschisis 4 per 10,000 total births. Incidence rate ratios per year for hypospadias, cryptorchidism, clubfoot, and gastroschisis were 1.00 (0.99-1.01), 0.99 (0.98-1.00), 0.98 (0.97-0.99), and 1.04 (1.04-1.07), respectively. During the study period, the prevalence rates in the region were unchanged for hypospadias, slightly reduced for cryptorchidism and clubfoot, and rising for gastroschisis (Figure). Spatial autocorrelation testing revealed statistically significant clustering for hypospadias (p = 0.03) and cryptorchidism (p = 0.03), while no spatial autocorrelation was observed for the other malformations. Contrary to previous studies we show that hypospadias and cryptorchidism prevalence rates are not increasing over time in our region. Nonetheless, rates for these conditions in our area are high compared with other regions of the world. Local clustering of these congenital anomalies without clustering of the control, non-endocrine mediated congenital malformations supports a possible unique spatial distribution associated with environmental exposure. The hotspots identified for hypospadias and cryptorchidism are associated with intense agricultural activity. Our study found no increase in hypospadias and cryptorchidism prevalence over a 26-year period compared with other congenital anomalies not known to be associated with endocrine factors. Geospatial analysis supports high clustering for hypospadias and cryptorchidism in areas of intense agricultural activity. Copyright © 2017 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploratory and spatial data analysis (EDA-SDA) for determining regional background levels and anomalies of potentially toxic elements in soils from Catorce-Matehuala, Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chiprés, J.A.; Castro-Larragoitia, J.; Monroy, M.G.

2009-01-01

The threshold between geochemical background and anomalies can be influenced by the methodology selected for its estimation. Environmental evaluations, particularly those conducted in mineralized areas, must consider this when trying to determinate the natural geochemical status of a study area, quantifying human impacts, or establishing soil restoration values for contaminated sites. Some methods in environmental geochemistry incorporate the premise that anomalies (natural or anthropogenic) and background data are characterized by their own probabilistic distributions. One of these methods uses exploratory data analysis (EDA) on regional geochemical data sets coupled with a geographic information system (GIS) to spatially understand the processes that influence the geochemical landscape in a technique that can be called a spatial data analysis (SDA). This EDA-SDA methodology was used to establish the regional background range from the area of Catorce-Matehuala in north-central Mexico. Probability plots of the data, particularly for those areas affected by human activities, show that the regional geochemical background population is composed of smaller subpopulations associated with factors such as soil type and parent material. This paper demonstrates that the EDA-SDA method offers more certainty in defining thresholds between geochemical background and anomaly than a numeric technique, making it a useful tool for regional geochemical landscape analysis and environmental geochemistry studies.

Modeling Dynamics of South American Rangelands to Climate Variability and Human Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanimirova, R.; Arevalo, P. A.; Kaufmann, R.; Maus, V.; Lesiv, M.; Havlik, P.; Friedl, M. A.

2017-12-01

The combined pressures of climate change and shifting dietary preferences are creating an urgent need to improve understanding of how climate and land management are jointly affecting the sustainability of rangelands. In particular, our ability to effectively manage rangelands in a manner that satisfies increasing demand for meat and dairy while reducing environmental impact depends on the sensitivity of rangelands to perturbations from both climate (e.g., drought) and land use (e.g., grazing). To characterize the sensitivity of rangeland vegetation to variation in climate, we analyzed gridded time series of satellite and climate data at 0.5-degree spatial resolution from 2003 to 2016 for rangeland ecosystems in South America. We used panel regression and canonical correlation to analyze the relationship between time series of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from NASA's Moderate Spatial Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and gridded precipitation and air temperature data from the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit. To quantify the degree to which livestock management explains geographic variation of EVI, we used global livestock distribution (FAO) and feed requirements data from the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM). Because rangeland ecosystems are sensitive to changes in meteorological variables at different time scales, we evaluated the strength of coupling between anomalies in EVI and anomalies in temperature and standardized precipitation index (SPI) data at 1-6 month lags. Our results show statistically significant relationships between EVI and precipitation during summer, fall, and winter in both tropical and subtropical agroecological zones of South America. Further, lagged precipitation effects, which reflect memory in the system, explain significant variance in winter EVI anomalies. While precipitation emerges as the dominant driver of variability in rangeland greenness, we find evidence of a management-induced signal as well. Our modeling framework integrates satellite observation, meteorological data sets, and land use/cover change information to improve our capability to monitor and manage the long-term sustainability of rangelands.

Variability in lateral carbon export from four major tributaries in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanimirova, R.; Arevalo, P. A.; Kaufmann, R.; Maus, V.; Lesiv, M.; Havlik, P.; Friedl, M. A.

2016-12-01

The combined pressures of climate change and shifting dietary preferences are creating an urgent need to improve understanding of how climate and land management are jointly affecting the sustainability of rangelands. In particular, our ability to effectively manage rangelands in a manner that satisfies increasing demand for meat and dairy while reducing environmental impact depends on the sensitivity of rangelands to perturbations from both climate (e.g., drought) and land use (e.g., grazing). To characterize the sensitivity of rangeland vegetation to variation in climate, we analyzed gridded time series of satellite and climate data at 0.5-degree spatial resolution from 2003 to 2016 for rangeland ecosystems in South America. We used panel regression and canonical correlation to analyze the relationship between time series of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from NASA's Moderate Spatial Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and gridded precipitation and air temperature data from the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit. To quantify the degree to which livestock management explains geographic variation of EVI, we used global livestock distribution (FAO) and feed requirements data from the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM). Because rangeland ecosystems are sensitive to changes in meteorological variables at different time scales, we evaluated the strength of coupling between anomalies in EVI and anomalies in temperature and standardized precipitation index (SPI) data at 1-6 month lags. Our results show statistically significant relationships between EVI and precipitation during summer, fall, and winter in both tropical and subtropical agroecological zones of South America. Further, lagged precipitation effects, which reflect memory in the system, explain significant variance in winter EVI anomalies. While precipitation emerges as the dominant driver of variability in rangeland greenness, we find evidence of a management-induced signal as well. Our modeling framework integrates satellite observation, meteorological data sets, and land use/cover change information to improve our capability to monitor and manage the long-term sustainability of rangelands.

Separation of spatial-temporal patterns ('climatic modes') by combined analysis of really measured and generated numerically vector time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feigin, A. M.; Mukhin, D.; Volodin, E. M.; Gavrilov, A.; Loskutov, E. M.

2013-12-01

The new method of decomposition of the Earth's climate system into well separated spatial-temporal patterns ('climatic modes') is discussed. The method is based on: (i) generalization of the MSSA (Multichannel Singular Spectral Analysis) [1] for expanding vector (space-distributed) time series in basis of spatial-temporal empirical orthogonal functions (STEOF), which makes allowance delayed correlations of the processes recorded in spatially separated points; (ii) expanding both real SST data, and longer by several times SST data generated numerically, in STEOF basis; (iii) use of the numerically produced STEOF basis for exclusion of 'too slow' (and thus not represented correctly) processes from real data. The application of the method allows by means of vector time series generated numerically by the INM RAS Coupled Climate Model [2] to separate from real SST anomalies data [3] two climatic modes possessing by noticeably different time scales: 3-5 and 9-11 years. Relations of separated modes to ENSO and PDO are investigated. Possible applications of spatial-temporal climatic patterns concept to prognosis of climate system evolution is discussed. 1. Ghil, M., R. M. Allen, M. D. Dettinger, K. Ide, D. Kondrashov, et al. (2002) "Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series", Rev. Geophys. 40(1), 3.1-3.41. 2. http://83.149.207.89/GCM_DATA_PLOTTING/GCM_INM_DATA_XY_en.htm 3. http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.KAPLAN/.EXTENDED/.v2/.ssta/

CHAMP: a locally adaptive unmixing-based hyperspectral anomaly detection algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crist, Eric P.; Thelen, Brian J.; Carrara, David A.

1998-10-01

Anomaly detection offers a means by which to identify potentially important objects in a scene without prior knowledge of their spectral signatures. As such, this approach is less sensitive to variations in target class composition, atmospheric and illumination conditions, and sensor gain settings than would be a spectral matched filter or similar algorithm. The best existing anomaly detectors generally fall into one of two categories: those based on local Gaussian statistics, and those based on linear mixing moles. Unmixing-based approaches better represent the real distribution of data in a scene, but are typically derived and applied on a global or scene-wide basis. Locally adaptive approaches allow detection of more subtle anomalies by accommodating the spatial non-homogeneity of background classes in a typical scene, but provide a poorer representation of the true underlying background distribution. The CHAMP algorithm combines the best attributes of both approaches, applying a linear-mixing model approach in a spatially adaptive manner. The algorithm itself, and teste results on simulated and actual hyperspectral image data, are presented in this paper.

Recent accelerated warming of the continental shelf off New Jersey: Observations from the CMV Oleander expendable bathythermograph line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsyth, Jacob Samuel Tse; Andres, Magdalena; Gawarkiewicz, Glen G.

2015-03-01

Expendable bathythermographs (XBTs) have been launched along a repeat track from New Jersey to Bermuda from the CMV Oleander through the NOAA/NEFSC Ship of Opportunity Program about 14 times per year since 1977. The XBT temperatures on the Middle Atlantic Bight shelf are binned with 10 km horizontal and 5 m vertical resolution to produce monthly, seasonally, and annually averaged cross-shelf temperature sections. The depth-averaged shelf temperature, Ts, calculated from annually averaged sections that are spatially averaged across the shelf, increases at 0.026 ± 0.001°C yr-1 from 1977 to 2013, with the recent trend substantially larger than the overall 37 year trend (0.11 ± 0.02°C yr-1 since 2002). The Oleander temperature sections suggest that the recent acceleration in warming on the shelf is not confined to the surface, but occurs throughout the water column with some contribution from interactions between the shelf and the adjacent Slope Sea reflected in cross-shelf motions of the shelfbreak front. The local warming on the shelf cannot explain the region's amplified rate of sea level rise relative to the global mean. Additionally, Ts exhibits significant interannual variability with the warmest anomalies increasing in intensity over the 37 year record even as the cold anomalies remain relatively uniform throughout the record. Ts anomalies are not correlated with annually averaged coastal sea level anomalies at zero lag. However, positive correlation is found between 2 year lagged Ts anomalies and coastal sea level anomalies, suggesting that the region's sea level anomalies may serve as a predictor of shelf temperature.

Airborne Sea-Surface Topography in an Absolute Reference Frame

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brozena, J. M.; Childers, V. A.; Jacobs, G.; Blaha, J.

2003-12-01

Highly dynamic coastal ocean processes occur at temporal and spatial scales that cannot be captured by the present generation of satellite altimeters. Space-borne gravity missions such as GRACE also provide time-varying gravity and a geoidal msl reference surface at resolution that is too coarse for many coastal applications. The Naval Research Laboratory and the Naval Oceanographic Office have been testing the application of airborne measurement techniques, gravity and altimetry, to determine sea-surface height and height anomaly at the short scales required for littoral regions. We have developed a precise local gravimetric geoid over a test region in the northern Gulf of Mexico from historical gravity data and recent airborne gravity surveys. The local geoid provides a msl reference surface with a resolution of about 10-15 km and provides a means to connect airborne, satellite and tide-gage observations in an absolute (WGS-84) framework. A series of altimetry reflights over the region with time scales of 1 day to 1 year reveal a highly dynamic environment with coherent and rapidly varying sea-surface height anomalies. AXBT data collected at the same time show apparent correlation with wave-like temperature anomalies propagating up the continental slope of the Desoto Canyon. We present animations of the temporal evolution of the surface topography and water column temperature structure down to the 800 m depth of the AXBT sensors.

Sources of Meridional Heat and Freshwater Transport Anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, K. A.; Thompson, L.; Drushka, K.

2016-02-01

Observations of thermosteric and halosteric sea level from hydrographic data, ocean mass from GRACE and altimetric sea surface height are used to infer meridional heat transport (MHT) and freshwater convergence (FWC) anomalies for the Atlantic Ocean for 1993-2014. A Kalman filter extracts smooth estimates of heat transport convergence (HTC) and FWC from discrepancies between the sea level response to monthly surface heat and freshwater fluxes and observed heat and freshwater content in each of eight regions. Estimates of MHT anomalies are derived by summing the HTC from north to south and adding an integration constant derived from updated MHT estimates at 41N (Willis 2010). MHT estimates are relatively insensitive to the choice of heat flux products and are highly coherent spatially. Anomalies in MHT are comparable to those observed at the RAPID/MOCHA line at 26.5N and show a continued recovery from the minimum in 2010 throughout the Atlantic. MHT anomalies resemble estimates of Agulhas Leakage derived from altimeter (LeBars et al 2014) suggesting that the Indian Ocean is the source of the anomalous heat inflow. FWC estimates are also insensitive to choice of flux products. Interannual anomalies of FWC integrated from 67N to 35S resemble estimates of Atlantic river inflow (de Couet and Maurer, GRDC 2009), whereas the trend is consistent with estimates of freshwater input from Greenland. Increasing values of FWC after 2002 at a time when MHT was decreasing may indicate a feedback between the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and FWC that would accelerate the AMOC slowdown.

Negative magnetic anomaly over Mt. Resnik, a subaerially erupted volcanic peak beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

USGS Publications Warehouse

Behrendt, John C.; Finn, C.; Morse, D.L.; Blankenship, D.D.

2006-01-01

Mt. Resnik is one of the previously reported 18 subaerially erupted volcanoes (in the West Antarctic rift system), which have high elevation and high bed relief beneath the WAIS in the Central West Antarctica (CWA) aerogeophysical survey. Mt. Resnik lies 300 m below the surface of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS); it has 1.6 km topographic relief, and a conical form defined by radar ice-sounding of bed topography. It has an associated complex negative magnetic anomaly revealed by the CWA survey. We calculated and interpreted magnetic models fit to the Mt. Resnik anomaly as a volcanic source comprising both reversely and normally magnetized (in the present field direction) volcanic flows, 0.5-2.5-km thick, erupted subaerially during a time of magnetic field reversal. The Mt. Resnik 305-nT anomaly is part of an approximately 50- by 40-km positive anomaly complex extending about 30 km to the west of the Mt. Resnik peak, associated with an underlying source complex of about the same area, whose top is at the bed of the WAIS. The bed relief of this shallow source complex has a maximum of only about 400 m, whereas the modeled source is >3 km thick. From the spatial relationship we interpret that this source and Mt Resnik are approximately contemporaneous. Any subglacially (older?) erupted edifices comprising hyaloclastite or other volcanic debris, which formerly overlaid the source to the west, were removed by the moving WAIS into which they were injected as is the general case for the ???1000 volcanic centers at the base of the WAIS. The presence of the magnetic field reversal modeled for Mt. Resnik may represent the Bruhnes-Matayama reversal at 780 ka (or an earlier reversal). There are ???100 short-wavelength, steep-gradient, negative magnetic anomalies observed over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), or about 10% of the approximately 1000 short-wavelength, shallow-source, high-amplitude (50- >1000 nT) "volcanic" magnetic anomalies in the CWA survey. These negative anomalies indicate volcanic activity during a period of magnetic reversal and therefore must also be at least 780 ka. The spatial extent and volume of volcanism can now be reassessed for the 1.2 ?? 106 km2 region of the WAIS characterized by magnetic anomalies defining interpreted volcanic centers associated with the West Antarctic rift system. The CWA covers an area of 3.54 ?? 105 km2; forty-four percent of that area exhibits short-wavelength, high-amplitude anomalies indicative of volcanic centers and subvolcanic intrusions. This equates to an area of 0.51 ?? 105 km2 and a volume of 106 km3 beneath the ice-covered West Antarctic rift system, of sufficient extent to be classified as a large igneous province interpreted to be of Oligocene to recent age.

In-situ Chemical Exploration and Mapping using an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camilli, R.; Bingham, B. S.; Jakuba, M.; Whelan, J.; Singh, H.; Whiticar, M.

2004-12-01

Recent advances in in-situ chemical sensing have emphasized several issues associated with making reliable chemical measurements in the ocean. Such measurements are often aliased temporally and or spatially, and may suffer from instrumentation artifacts, such as slow response time, limited dynamic range, hysteresis, and environmental sensitivities (eg., temperature and pressure). We focus on the in-situ measurement of light hydrocarbons. Specifically we examine data collected using a number of methods including: a vertical profiler, autonomous underwater vehicles (AUV) surveys, and adaptive spatio-temporal survey techniques. We present data collected using a commercial METS sensor on a vertical profiler to identify and map structures associated with ocean bottom methane sources in the Saanich inlet off Vancouver, Canada. This sensor was deployed in parallel with a submersible mass spectrometer and a shipboard equilibrator-gas chromatograph. Our results illustrate that spatial offsets as small as centimeters can produce significant differences in measured concentration. In addition, differences in response times between instruments can also alias the measurements. The results of this preliminary experiment underscore the challenges of quantifying ocean chemical processes with small-scale spatial variability and temporal variability that is often faster than the response times of many available instruments. We explore the capabilities and current limitations of autonomous underwater vehicles for extending the spatial coverage of new in-situ sensor technologies. We present data collected from deployments of Seabed, a passively stable, hover capable AUV, at large-scale gas blowout features located along the U.S. Atlantic margin. Although these deployments successfully revealed previously unobservable oceanographic processes, temporal aliasing caused by sensor response as well as tidal variability manifests itself, illustrating the possibilities for misinterpretation of localized periodic anomalies. Finally we present results of recent experimental chemical plume mapping surveys that were conducted off the coast of Massachusetts using adaptive behaviors that allow the AUV to optimize its mission plan to autonomously search for chemical anomalies. This adaptive operation is based on coupling the chemical sensor payload within a closed-loop architecture with the vehicle's navigation control system for real-time autonomous data assimilation and decision making processes. This allows the vehicle to autonomously refine the search strategy, thereby improving feature localization capabilities and enabling surveys at an appropriate temporal and spatial resolution.

Vegetation Disturbance and Recovery Following a Rare Windthrow Event in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardes, S.; Madden, M.

2016-06-01

The tornado outbreak of April 2011 in the Southeastern United States caused major damage to property and natural ecosystems. During the outbreak, the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM) was hit by an EF4 tornado, resulting in a long strip of broken branches and toppled old-growth forest trees. Little is known of the consequences of extreme windthrow events, partly due to limitations in characterizing and monitoring wind-driven vegetation disturbance and recovery over large areas and over time. This work analyzed vegetation damage in the GRSM resulting from the 2011 tornado outbreak and monitored vegetation recovery in the region over a four-year period. Anomalies of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) calculated using Landsat scenes showed that the 2011 tornado affected 21.38 km2 of forest, including submesic to mesic oak/hardwoods, Southern Appalachian cove hardwood forests and montane alluvial forests. Tornado damage severity was mapped and investigated by using anomalies of EVI over space and time and showed track discontinuity and significant variation in damage intensity along the tornado track, suggesting vortex-topography interactions. Temporal profiles and spatial representations of EVI anomalies for the period 2011-2015 indicated that EVI in 2015 was above pre-event values, indicating homogeneous canopy and lack of vertical structure during regrowth.

Advanced Unsupervised Classification Methods to Detect Anomalies on Earthen Levees Using Polarimetric SAR Imagery

PubMed Central

Marapareddy, Ramakalavathi; Aanstoos, James V.; Younan, Nicolas H.

2016-01-01

Fully polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (polSAR) data analysis has wide applications for terrain and ground cover classification. The dynamics of surface and subsurface water events can lead to slope instability resulting in slough slides on earthen levees. Early detection of these anomalies by a remote sensing approach could save time versus direct assessment. We used L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) to screen levees for anomalies. SAR technology, due to its high spatial resolution and soil penetration capability, is a good choice for identifying problematic areas on earthen levees. Using the parameters entropy (H), anisotropy (A), alpha (α), and eigenvalues (λ, λ1, λ2, and λ3), we implemented several unsupervised classification algorithms for the identification of anomalies on the levee. The classification techniques applied are H/α, H/A, A/α, Wishart H/α, Wishart H/A/α, and H/α/λ classification algorithms. In this work, the effectiveness of the algorithms was demonstrated using quad-polarimetric L-band SAR imagery from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s (JPL’s) Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR). The study area is a section of the lower Mississippi River valley in the Southern USA, where earthen flood control levees are maintained by the US Army Corps of Engineers. PMID:27322270

Update on embryology of the upper limb.

PubMed

Al-Qattan, Mohammad M; Kozin, Scott H

2013-09-01

Current concepts in the steps of upper limb development and the way the limb is patterned along its 3 spatial axes are reviewed. Finally, the embryogenesis of various congenital hand anomalies is delineated with an emphasis on the pathogenetic basis for each anomaly. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Surgery of the Hand. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

GRACE gravity data help constraining seismic models of the 2004 Sumatran earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cambiotti, G.; Bordoni, A.; Sabadini, R.; Colli, L.

2011-10-01

The analysis of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Level 2 data time series from the Center for Space Research (CSR) and GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) allows us to extract a new estimate of the co-seismic gravity signal due to the 2004 Sumatran earthquake. Owing to compressible self-gravitating Earth models, including sea level feedback in a new self-consistent way and designed to compute gravitational perturbations due to volume changes separately, we are able to prove that the asymmetry in the co-seismic gravity pattern, in which the north-eastern negative anomaly is twice as large as the south-western positive anomaly, is not due to the previously overestimated dilatation in the crust. The overestimate was due to a large dilatation localized at the fault discontinuity, the gravitational effect of which is compensated by an opposite contribution from topography due to the uplifted crust. After this localized dilatation is removed, we instead predict compression in the footwall and dilatation in the hanging wall. The overall anomaly is then mainly due to the additional gravitational effects of the ocean after water is displaced away from the uplifted crust, as first indicated by de Linage et al. (2009). We also detail the differences between compressible and incompressible material properties. By focusing on the most robust estimates from GRACE data, consisting of the peak-to-peak gravity anomaly and an asymmetry coefficient, that is given by the ratio of the negative gravity anomaly over the positive anomaly, we show that they are quite sensitive to seismic source depths and dip angles. This allows us to exploit space gravity data for the first time to help constraining centroid-momentum-tensor (CMT) source analyses of the 2004 Sumatran earthquake and to conclude that the seismic moment has been released mainly in the lower crust rather than the lithospheric mantle. Thus, GRACE data and CMT source analyses, as well as geodetic slip distributions aided by GPS, complement each other for a robust inference of the seismic source of large earthquakes. Particular care is devoted to the spatial filtering of the gravity anomalies estimated both from observations and models to make their comparison significant.

Skillful Spring Forecasts of September Arctic Sea Ice Extent Using Passive Microwave Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petty, A. A.; Schroder, D.; Stroeve, J. C.; Markus, Thorsten; Miller, Jeffrey A.; Kurtz, Nathan Timothy; Feltham, D. L.; Flocco, D.

2017-01-01

In this study, we demonstrate skillful spring forecasts of detrended September Arctic sea ice extent using passive microwave observations of sea ice concentration (SIC) and melt onset (MO). We compare these to forecasts produced using data from a sophisticated melt pond model, and find similar to higher skill values, where the forecast skill is calculated relative to linear trend persistence. The MO forecasts shows the highest skill in March-May, while the SIC forecasts produce the highest skill in June-August, especially when the forecasts are evaluated over recent years (since 2008). The high MO forecast skill in early spring appears to be driven primarily by the presence and timing of open water anomalies, while the high SIC forecast skill appears to be driven by both open water and surface melt processes. Spatial maps of detrended anomalies highlight the drivers of the different forecasts, and enable us to understand regions of predictive importance. Correctly capturing sea ice state anomalies, along with changes in open water coverage appear to be key processes in skillfully forecasting summer Arctic sea ice.

The 2014/15 Warm Anomaly in the Southern California Current - Physical and Biological Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ralf, G.

2016-02-01

The 2014/15 Warm Anomaly (WarmA) off Southern California manifested itself in the summer of 2014 as an anomalously warm surface layer in the Southern Calif. Bight with low concentrations of Chl a. This layer intensified in spatial extent, covering the entire CalCOFI surface area by the winter of 2015 with temperature anomalies 3 StDev larger than long-term averages. Concentrations of nutrients, phytoplankton biomass and rates of primary production were extremely low during the WarmA. The evolution of the WarmA as well as the 2015/16 El Niño with time will be compared to the evolution of the weak and strong El Niño's observed over the last 60 years. These events provide unique insights in the controls of phytoplankton biomass and production in the southern California Current System. Preliminary analyses suggest that the response of the phytoplankton community to the WarmA was consistent with responses to similar forcing during the prior decade. This presentation is based on data collected during the quarterly CalCOFI cruises by the CalCOFI and the CCE-LTER groups.

Maintenance of coupling between stratosphere and troposphere annular modes in middle and late winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Torre, L.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R.; Tesouro, M.; Añel, J. A.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

The main objective of this work is to know when the coupling between stratosphere and troposphere Northern Annular Mode (NAM) is maintained during mid- and late winter (January-February-March) . Daily NAM-index time series calculated at 17 pressure levels from 1000 to 10-hPa for the period 1958-2001 were used in this study, as well as NCAR-NCEP reanalysis to characterize spatial patterns. So, a) we identified periods when coupling between stratospheric and tropospheric NAMs are intense/weak in mid-late winter, b) we tried to characterize these periods in terms of spatial patterns of geopotential anomalies and c) we characterized these periods in terms of stratospheric-tropospheric NAMs cross-correlation structures. Results suggest that: a)there is intense interannual variability in the number of uncoupling/coupling days, b) coupling periods are characterized by strong negative geopotential anomalies over Eurasia, c) there is only positive NAO values in the coupling days composite, c) there is two main pattens of cross-correlations, in one of them troposphere and stratosphere NAM are correlated at lag 0 and in the other troposphere NAM leads stratosphere NAM in about two weeks.

A teleconnection study of interannual sea surface temperature fluctuations in the northern North Atlantic and precipitation and runoff over Western Siberia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peng, S.; Mysak, L.A.

The spatial distributions of northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature and the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure anomalies averaged over six consecutive warm SST winters (1951-1956) and six consecutive cold SST winters (1971-1976) are examined. Three SLP anomaly difference (i.e., warm - cold winters) centers, significant at the 5% level, are observed over the northern North Atlantic, Europe, and western Siberia. This anomaly pattern is consistent in principle with what was identified in a related analyses by Palmer and Sun, who used composite data from selected winter months. The SLP difference centers over the northern North Atlantic and westernmore » Siberia are in phase. The impact of the latter center upon the runoff from the underlying Ob and Yenisey rivers and especially the teleconnection between SST anomalies in the northern North Atlantic and runoff of those two rivers via the atmosphere are investigated. The temporal cross-correlation analyses of 50 years (1930-1979) of records of SST, precipitation, and runoff anomalies indicate that the winter SST anomalies in the northern North Atlantic are significantly correlated with the winter and following summer runoff fluctuations of the Ob and Yenisey rivers. Positive (negative) northern North Atlantic SST anomalies are related to less (more) precipitation, and hence, less (more) runoff, over western Siberia. Discussions of possible physical mechanisms and processes that lead to the above relationships are attempted. The analyses of spatial distributions of precipitation in the warm and cold SST winters suggest that precipitation fluctuations over Europe and western Siberia may be affected by shifts of cyclone tracks associated with the SST variations in the northern North Atlantic. 27 refs., 9 figs.« less

Impacts of Local Soil Moisture Anomalies on the Atmospheric Circulation and on Remote Surface Meteorological Fields During Boreal Summer: A Comprehensive Analysis over North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Chang, Yehui; Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried D.

2016-01-01

We perform a series of stationary wave model (SWM) experiments in which the boreal summer atmosphere is forced, over a number of locations in the continental U.S., with an idealized diabatic heating anomaly that mimics the atmospheric heating associated with a dry land surface. For localized heating within a large portion of the continental interior, regardless of the specific location of this heating, the spatial pattern of the forced atmospheric circulation anomaly (in terms of 250-mb eddy streamfunction) is largely the same: a high anomaly forms over west central North America and a low anomaly forms to the east. In supplemental atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments, we find similar results; imposing soil moisture dryness in the AGCM in different locations within the US interior tends to produce the aforementioned pattern, along with an associated near-surface warming and precipitation deficit in the center of the continent. The SWM-based and AGCM-based patterns generally agree with composites generated using reanalysis and precipitation gauge data. The AGCM experiments also suggest that dry anomalies imposed in the lower Mississippi Valley have remote surface impacts of particularly large spatial extent, and a region along the eastern half of the US-Canada border is particularly sensitive to dry anomalies in a number of remote areas. Overall, the SWM and AGCM experiments support the idea of a positive feedback loop operating over the continent: dry surface conditions in many interior locations lead to changes in atmospheric circulation that act to enhance further the overall dryness of the continental interior.

The joint space-time statistics of macroweather precipitation, space-time statistical factorization and macroweather models.

PubMed

Lovejoy, S; de Lima, M I P

2015-07-01

Over the range of time scales from about 10 days to 30-100 years, in addition to the familiar weather and climate regimes, there is an intermediate "macroweather" regime characterized by negative temporal fluctuation exponents: implying that fluctuations tend to cancel each other out so that averages tend to converge. We show theoretically and numerically that macroweather precipitation can be modeled by a stochastic weather-climate model (the Climate Extended Fractionally Integrated Flux, model, CEFIF) first proposed for macroweather temperatures and we show numerically that a four parameter space-time CEFIF model can approximately reproduce eight or so empirical space-time exponents. In spite of this success, CEFIF is theoretically and numerically difficult to manage. We therefore propose a simplified stochastic model in which the temporal behavior is modeled as a fractional Gaussian noise but the spatial behaviour as a multifractal (climate) cascade: a spatial extension of the recently introduced ScaLIng Macroweather Model, SLIMM. Both the CEFIF and this spatial SLIMM model have a property often implicitly assumed by climatologists that climate statistics can be "homogenized" by normalizing them with the standard deviation of the anomalies. Physically, it means that the spatial macroweather variability corresponds to different climate zones that multiplicatively modulate the local, temporal statistics. This simplified macroweather model provides a framework for macroweather forecasting that exploits the system's long range memory and spatial correlations; for it, the forecasting problem has been solved. We test this factorization property and the model with the help of three centennial, global scale precipitation products that we analyze jointly in space and in time.

Recent Global Warming As Depicted by AIRS, GISSTEMP, and MERRA-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susskind, J.; Iredell, L. F.; Lee, J. N.

2017-12-01

We observed anomalously warm global mean surface temperatures since 2015. The year 2016 represents the warmest annual mean surface skin and surface air temperatures in the AIRS observational period, September 2002 through August 2017. Additionally, AIRS monthly mean surface skin temperature, from January 2016 through September 2016, and November 2016, were the warmest observed for each month of the year. Continuing this trend, the AIRS global surface temperatures of 2017 February and April show the second greatest positive anomalies from average. This recent warming is particularly significant over the Arctic where the snow and sea ice melt is closely tied to the spring and summer surface temperatures. In this paper, we show the global distribution of surface temperature anomalies as observed by AIRS over the period September 2002 through August 2017 and compare them with those from the GISSTEMP and MERRA-2 surface temperatures. The spatial patterns of warm and cold anomalies for a given month show reasonably good agreement in all three data set. AIRS anomalies, which do not have the benefit of in-situ measurements, are in almost perfect agreement with those of MERRA-2, which does use in-situ surface measurements. GISSTEMP anomaly patterns for the most part look similar to those of AIRS and MERRA-2, but are more spread out spatially, and consequently are also weaker.

Iron formations as the source of the West African magnetic crustal anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Launay, Nicolas; Quesnel, Yoann; Rochette, Pierre; Demory, François

2018-04-01

The geological sources of major magnetic field anomalies are still poorly constrained, in terms of nature, geometry and vertical position. A common feature of several anomalies is their spatial correlation with cratonic shields and, for the largest anomalies, with Banded Iron Formations (BIF). This study first unveils the magnetic properties of some BIF samples from Mauritania, where the main part of the West African magnetic anomaly is observed. It shows how strong the magnetic susceptibility and natural remanent magnetization for such rocks are. High Koenigsberger ratios imply that the remanent magnetization should be taken into account to explain the anomaly. A numerical modeling of the crust beneath this anomaly is performed using these constraints and both gravity and magnetic field data. A forward approach is used, investigating the depth, thickness and magnetization intensity of all possible crustal lithologies. Our results show that BIF slices can be the only magnetized crustal sources needed to explain the anomaly, and that they could be buried several kilometers deep. The results of this study provide a new perspective to address the investigation of magnetic field anomaly sources in other cratonic regions with BIF outcrops.

Magsat to CHAMP: Magnetic Satellite Explorations of Lithospheric Anomalies over Kursk, Bangui and the Antarctic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, H.; Taylor, Patrick T.; vonFrese, R. R.; Kim, J. W.

2004-01-01

We compare crustal magnetic anomaly maps over the Kursk (Russia) and Bangui (Central African Republic) isolated anomalies and the Antarctic derived from the Magsat, \\Orsted and CHAMP satellite fields. We wish to demonstrate how progress in satellite magnetic missions has improved the recovery of the crustal magnetic field. The 6-month long Magsat mission of 25 years ago generated two major methods of processing satellite magnetic anomaly data for lithospheric studies. The first was a global perspective using spherical harmonics that emphasize the more regional and global lithospheric fields. However, these fields commonly do not resolve local anomaly features in any detail. Therefore a second procedure involved the use of the individual satellite orbit or track data to recover small-scale anomalies on a regional scale. We present results over prominent magnetic anomalies such as Kursk, Bangui and the large Antarctic continent that demonstrate how the various analysis methods affect the recovery of crustal anomalies. The more recent \\Orsted and CHAMP missions are successfully recording data with an improved accuracy and with full spatial and temporal coverage. We show and interpret the total magnetic intensity anomaly maps over these areas from all three satellite magnetometer data sets.

Distribution of the Crustal Magnetic Field in Sichuan-Yunnan Region, Southwest China

PubMed Central

Bai, Chunhua; Kang, Guofa; Gao, Guoming

2014-01-01

Based on the new and higher degree geomagnetic model NGDC-720-V3, we have investigated the spatial distribution, the altitude decay characteristics of the crustal magnetic anomaly, the contributions from different wavelength bands to the anomaly, and the relationship among the anomaly, the geological structure, and the geophysical field in Sichuan-Yunnan region of China. It is noted that the most outstanding feature in this area is the strong positive magnetic anomaly in Sichuan Basin, a geologically stable block. Contrasting with this feature, a strong negative anomaly can be seen nearby in Longmen Mountain block, an active block. This contradiction implies a possible relationship between the magnetic field and the geological activity. Completely different feature in magnetic field distribution is seen in the central Yunnan block, another active region, where positive and negative anomalies distribute alternatively, showing a complex magnetic anomaly map. Some fault belts, such as the Longmen Mountain fault, Lijiang-Xiaojinhe fault, and the Red River fault, are the transitional zones of strong and weak or negative and positive anomalies. The corresponding relationship between the magnetic anomaly and the geophysical fields was confirmed. PMID:25243232

Spatial distribution of soil radon as a tool to recognize active faulting on an active volcano: the example of Mt. Etna (Italy).

PubMed

Neri, Marco; Giammanco, Salvatore; Ferrera, Elisabetta; Patanè, Giuseppe; Zanon, Vittorio

2011-09-01

This study concerns measurements of radon and thoron emissions from soil carried out in 2004 on the eastern flank of Mt. Etna, in a zone characterized by the presence of numerous seismogenic and aseismic faults. The statistical treatment of the geochemical data allowed recognizing anomaly thresholds for both parameters and producing distribution maps that highlighted a significant spatial correlation between soil gas anomalies and tectonic lineaments. The seismic activity occurring in and around the study area during 2004 was analyzed, producing maps of hypocentral depth and released seismic energy. Both radon and thoron anomalies were located in areas affected by relatively deep (5-10 km depth) seismic activity, while less evident correlation was found between soil gas anomalies and the released seismic energy. This study confirms that mapping the distribution of radon and thoron in soil gas can reveal hidden faults buried by recent soil cover or faults that are not clearly visible at the surface. The correlation between soil gas data and earthquakes depth and intensity can give some hints on the source of gas and/or on fault dynamics. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Engima of a thermal anomaly - A TM/AVHRR study of the volcanic Arabian highlands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blodget, H. W.; Andre, C. G.; Masuoka, P. M.

1987-01-01

Discovery of a large thermal anomaly in the western Arabian highlands on Landsat TM imagery is reported. The anomaly, 15 C warmer than surroundings, forms a 2-km-wide arc around the southern flank of Jebel Chada, a volcano active in 1256 AD. It is recorded by AVHRR imagery as well, despite the 1.1-km spatial resolution of this sensor. Air photos and geologic maps show no bedrock unit that corresponds to the anomaly. Digital techniques were applied to the TM and AVHRR data, including contrast enhancement, density slicing, principal components analysis, and construction of multiband composite images. It is concluded that the anomaly results from a thin cover of volcanic ash or cinder that is optically indistinguishable from underlying basalt, rather than from internal (volcanic or hydrologic) heat sources.

MODVOLC2: A Hybrid Time Series Analysis for Detecting Thermal Anomalies Applied to Thermal Infrared Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koeppen, W. C.; Wright, R.; Pilger, E.

2009-12-01

We developed and tested a new, automated algorithm, MODVOLC2, which analyzes thermal infrared satellite time series data to detect and quantify the excess energy radiated from thermal anomalies such as active volcanoes, fires, and gas flares. MODVOLC2 combines two previously developed algorithms, a simple point operation algorithm (MODVOLC) and a more complex time series analysis (Robust AVHRR Techniques, or RAT) to overcome the limitations of using each approach alone. MODVOLC2 has four main steps: (1) it uses the original MODVOLC algorithm to process the satellite data on a pixel-by-pixel basis and remove thermal outliers, (2) it uses the remaining data to calculate reference and variability images for each calendar month, (3) it compares the original satellite data and any newly acquired data to the reference images normalized by their variability, and it detects pixels that fall outside the envelope of normal thermal behavior, (4) it adds any pixels detected by MODVOLC to those detected in the time series analysis. Using test sites at Anatahan and Kilauea volcanoes, we show that MODVOLC2 was able to detect ~15% more thermal anomalies than using MODVOLC alone, with very few, if any, known false detections. Using gas flares from the Cantarell oil field in the Gulf of Mexico, we show that MODVOLC2 provided results that were unattainable using a time series-only approach. Some thermal anomalies (e.g., Cantarell oil field flares) are so persistent that an additional, semi-automated 12-µm correction must be applied in order to correctly estimate both the number of anomalies and the total excess radiance being emitted by them. Although all available data should be included to make the best possible reference and variability images necessary for the MODVOLC2, we estimate that at least 80 images per calendar month are required to generate relatively good statistics from which to run MODVOLC2, a condition now globally met by a decade of MODIS observations. We also found that MODVOLC2 achieved good results on multiple sensors (MODIS and GOES), which provides confidence that MODVOLC2 can be run on future instruments regardless of their spatial and temporal resolutions. The improved performance of MODVOLC2 over MODVOLC makes possible the detection of lower temperature thermal anomalies that will be useful in improving our ability to document Earth’s volcanic eruptions as well as detect possible low temperature thermal precursors to larger eruptions.

Local Hotspots In The Gulf Of Maine: Spatial Overlap Between Dynamic Aggregations Of Primary Productivity And Fish Abundance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, M.

2016-02-01

Identification of biological hotspots may be a necessary step toward ecosystem-based management goals, as these often signal underlying processes that aggregate or stimulate resources in a particular location. However, previously used metrics to locate these hotspots are not easily adapted to local marine datasets, in part due to the high spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton populations. While most fish species in temperate regions are well adapted to the seasonal variability of phytoplankton abundance, it is the variability beyond this predictable pattern (i.e. anomalies) that may heavily impact the abundance and spatial distribution of organisms higher up the food chain. The objective of this study was to identify local-scale biological hotspots in a region in the western side of the Gulf of Maine using remote sensing chlorophyll-a data (from MERIS sensor), and to study the spatial overlap between these hotspots and high concentrations of fish abundance (derived from VTR dataset). For this reason, we defined a new hotspot metric that identified as a hotspot any area that consistently exhibited high-magnitude anomalies through time, a sign of highly dynamic communities. We improved on previous indices by minimizing the effect that different means and variances across space may have on the results, a situation that often occurs when comparing coastal and offshore systems. Results show a significant spatial correlation between pelagic fish abundance and aggregations of primary productivity. Spatial correlations were also significant between benthic fish abundance and primary productivity hotspots, but only during spring months. We argue that this new hotspot index compliments existing global measures as it helps managers understand the dynamic characteristics of a complex marine system. It also provides a unique metric that is easily compared across space and between different trophic levels, which may facilitate future ecosystem-wide studies.

Local Hotspots In The Gulf Of Maine: Spatial Overlap Between Dynamic Aggregations Of Primary Productivity And Fish Abundance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, M.

2016-12-01

Identification of biological hotspots may be a necessary step toward ecosystem-based management goals, as these often signal underlying processes that aggregate or stimulate resources in a particular location. However, previously used metrics to locate these hotspots are not easily adapted to local marine datasets, in part due to the high spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton populations. While most fish species in temperate regions are well adapted to the seasonal variability of phytoplankton abundance, it is the variability beyond this predictable pattern (i.e. anomalies) that may heavily impact the abundance and spatial distribution of organisms higher up the food chain. The objective of this study was to identify local-scale biological hotspots in a region in the western side of the Gulf of Maine using remote sensing chlorophyll-a data (from MERIS sensor), and to study the spatial overlap between these hotspots and high concentrations of fish abundance (derived from VTR dataset). For this reason, we defined a new hotspot metric that identified as a hotspot any area that consistently exhibited high-magnitude anomalies through time, a sign of highly dynamic communities. We improved on previous indices by minimizing the effect that different means and variances across space may have on the results, a situation that often occurs when comparing coastal and offshore systems. Results show a significant spatial correlation between pelagic fish abundance and aggregations of primary productivity. Spatial correlations were also significant between benthic fish abundance and primary productivity hotspots, but only during spring months. We argue that this new hotspot index compliments existing global measures as it helps managers understand the dynamic characteristics of a complex marine system. It also provides a unique metric that is easily compared across space and between different trophic levels, which may facilitate future ecosystem-wide studies.

The last frontier? High-resolution, near-bottom measurements of the Hawaiian Jurassic magnetic anomaly sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tivey, M.; Tominaga, M.; Sager, W. W.

2012-12-01

The Jurassic sequence of marine magnetic anomalies i.e. older than M29 remain the last part of the marine magnetic anomaly sequence of the geomagnetic polarity timescale (GPTS) that can be gleaned from the ocean crustal record. While Jurassic crust is present in several areas of the world's ocean basins, the oldest and arguably best preserved sequence is in the western Pacific where three lineations sets (Japanese, Hawaiian and Phoenix) converge on the oldest remaining ocean crust on the planet (i.e. crust that has not been subducted). The magnetic anomalies in these 3 lineation sets are marked by low amplitude, relatively indistinct anomalies (tiny wiggles) that collectively have been called the Jurassic quiet Zone (JQZ). Over the past 20 years we have been working on resolving the character and origin of these anomalies with various technologies to improve our resolution of this period. Following an aeromagnetic survey that revealed the possible presence of lineated anomalies older than M29 in the Japanese lineations, we conducted a deeptow magnetometer survey of the Japanese sequence in 1992. In 2002/03 we extended and confirmed this deeptow record with a deeptowed sidescan and magnetometer survey of the Japanese lineation sequence by tying in ODP Hole 801C and extending the anomaly sequence between M29 and M44. These surveys reveal remarkably fast reversals that are lineated and decrease in intensity back in time until M38, prior to which the sequence becomes somewhat confused (the LAZ or low amplitude zone) before recovering in both amplitude and lineated character around Hole 801C (M42). These results are partially supported by recently reported terrestrial magnetostratigraphy records that show the existence of reversals back to M38. A Jurassic GPTS was constructed from this Japanese anomaly sequence, but the overall global significance of the reversal sequence and systematic field intensity changes require confirmation from crustal records created at different spreading centers. In 2011, we undertook the next generation of near-bottom magnetic studies utilizing new autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) technology (Sentry) and concurrent deeptow and seismic profiling surveys of the Hawaiian anomaly sequence. Preliminary results show a similar anomaly record to the Japanese sequence: an overall decrease in anomaly amplitude from M19 to M38 and a period of low amplitude, which in turn is preceded by a return to stronger amplitude anomalies. The magnetic anomaly correlations between Hawaiian and Japanese sea-surface level profiles confirm the reversal record back in time, at least, to M38. At the mid-water and near-bottom AUV levels, the magnetic data clearly show the short-wavelength anomaly character of the M29-M38 sequence, indicating that the fast reversals observed in the Japanese lineations are also present in the Hawaiian lineation set. The strong similarity of overall anomaly patterns between Japanese and Hawaiian sequences supports the preliminary conclusion that geomagnetic field behavior during the Jurassic was dynamic, with fast reversals and changing intensity, and certainly not "quiet". Finally, AUV surveys provide measurements of the marine magnetic anomaly record whose resolution is limited only by the crustal recording process and crustal magnetic architecture rather than spatial resolution.

Precipitation Anomalies in Southern Brazil Associated with El Niño and La Niña Events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimm, Alice M.; Ferraz, Simone E. T.; Gomes, Júlio

1998-11-01

The impact of El Niño and La Niña events (warm and cold phases of the Southern Oscillation) on rainfall over southern Brazil is investigated through the use of a large dataset of monthly precipitation from 250 stations. This region is partly dominated by rough orography and presents different climatic regimes of rainfall. As previous global studies on Southern Oscillation-precipitation relationships used data from only two stations in southern Brazil, this region was not included in the area of consistent Southern Oscillation-related precipitation in southeastern South America. The present analysis is based on the method by Ropelewski and Halpert, the sensitivity of which is assessed for this region. The spatial structure of the rainfall anomalies associated with warm (cold) events is analyzed and subregions with coherent anomalies are determined. Their distribution indicates the influence of relief, latitude, and proximity to the ocean. These areas are subjected to further analysis to determine the seasons of largest anomalies and assess their consistency during warm (cold) events.The whole of southern Brazil was found to have strong and consistent precipitation anomalies associated with those events. Their magnitude is even larger than in Argentina and Uruguay. All of the subregions have consistent wet anomalies during the austral spring of the warm event year, with a pronounced peak in November. The southeastern part also shows a consistent tendency to higher than average rainfall during the austral winter of the following year. There is also a consistent tendency to dryness in the year before a warm event. During the spring of cold event years strong consistent dry anomalies prevail over the whole region, also with maximum magnitude in November. They are even stronger and more consistent than the wet anomalies in warm event years. Consistent anomalies do not occur over large areas in the years before and after cold events. The wet anomalies during the austral spring of the warm event year weaken and even reverse during the following January. The same tendency, though not so clear, is observable in the dry anomalies of cold events. The seasons of largest anomalies disclosed by this study differ from those found by previous global studies for other regions in southeastern South America.This study expands the area of consistent warm (cold) event-related precipitation defined by previous studies in southeastern South America by including a region of larger anomalies, and provides a spatial and temporal refinement to the warm (cold) event-precipitation relationship.

Cyberpark 2000: Protected Areas Management Pilot Project. Satellite time series vegetation monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monteleone, M.; Lanorte, A.; Lasaponara, R.

2009-04-01

Cyberpark 2000 is a project funded by the UE Regional Operating Program of the Apulia Region (2000-2006). The main objective of the Cyberpark 2000 project is to develop a new assessment model for the management and monitoring of protected areas in Foggia Province (Apulia Region) based on Information and Communication Technologies. The results herein described are placed inside the research activities finalized to develop an environmental monitoring system knowledge based on the use of satellite time series. This study include: - A- satellite time series of high spatial resolution data for supporting the analysis of fire static risk factors through land use mapping and spectral/quantitative characterization of vegetation fuels; - B- satellite time series of MODIS for supporting fire dynamic risk evaluation of study area - Integrated fire detection by using thermal imaging cameras placed on panoramic view-points; - C - integrated high spatial and high temporal satellite time series for supporting studies in change detection factors or anomalies in vegetation covers; - D - satellite time-series for monitoring: (i) post fire vegetation recovery and (ii) spatio/temporal vegetation dynamics in unburned and burned vegetation covers.

Characterizing a decade of behavior at Volcán de Colima, Mexico using long term InSAR and thermal remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorge, J.; Williams-Jones, G.; Wright, R.; Varley, N. R.

2010-12-01

Satellite imagery is playing an increasingly prominent role in volcanology as it allows for consistent monitoring of remote, dangerous, and/or under-monitored volcanoes. One such system is Volcán de Colima (Mexico), a persistently active andesitic stratovolcano. Its characteristic and hazardous activity includes lava dome growth, pyroclastic flows, explosions, and Plinian to Subplinian eruptions, which have historically occurred at the end of Volcán de Colima’s eruptive cycle. Despite the availability of large amounts of historical satellite imagery, methods to process and interpret these images over long time periods are limited. Furthermore, while time-series InSAR data from a previous study (December 2002 to August 2006) detected an overall subsidence between 1 and 3 km from the summit, there is insufficient temporal resolution to unambiguously constrain the source processes. To address this issue, a semi-automated process for time-based characterization of persistent volcanic activity at Volcán de Colima has been developed using a combination of MODIS and GOES satellite imagery to identify thermal anomalies on the volcano edifice. This satellite time-series data is then combined with available geodetic data, a detailed eruption history, and other geophysical time-series data (e.g., seismicity, explosions/day, effusion rate, environmental data, etc.) and examined for possible correlations and recurring patterns in the multiple data sets to investigate potential trigger mechanisms responsible for the changes in volcanic activity. GOES and MODIS images are available from 2000 to present at a temporal resolution of one image every 30 minutes and up to four images per day, respectively, creating a data set of approximately 180,000 images. Thermal anomalies over Volcán de Colima are identified in both night- and day-time images by applying a time-series approach to the analysis of MODIS data. Detection of false anomalies, caused by non-volcanic heat sources such as fires or solar heating (in the daytime images), is mitigated by adjusting the MODIS detection thresholds, through comparison of daytime versus nighttime results, and by observing the spatial distribution of the anomalies on the edifice. Conversely, anomalies may not be detected due to cloud cover; clouds absorb thermal radiation limiting or preventing the ability of the satellite to measure thermal events; therefore, the anomaly data is supplemented with a cloud cover time-series data set. Fast Fourier and Wavelet transforms are then applied to the continuous, uninterrupted intervals of satellite observation to compare and correlate with the multiple time-series data sets. The result is the characterization of the behavior of an individual volcano, based on an extended time period. This volcano specific, comprehensive characterization can then be used as a predictive tool in the real-time monitoring of volcanic activity.

Total electron content anomalies associated with global VEI4 + volcanic eruptions during 2002-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wang; Guo, Jinyun; Yue, Jianping; Shen, Yi; Yang, Yang

2016-10-01

In previous studies, little attention has been paid to the total electron content (TEC) anomalies preceding the volcanic eruption. We analyze the coupling relationship between volcanic eruption and TEC anomalies, and discuss the spatial distribution of TEC anomalies associated with volcanic geographical location. We utilize the global ionosphere map (GIM) data from the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) to analyze TEC variations before the global volcanic eruptions indicated by VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index) 4 + from 2002 to 2015 with the sliding interquartile range method. The results indicate the occurrence rate of TEC anomalies before great volcanic eruptions is related with the volcanic type and geographical position. The occurrence rate of TEC anomalies before stratovolcano and caldera eruptions is higher than that before shield and pyroclastic shield eruptions, and the occurrence rate of TEC anomalies has a descending trend from low latitudes to high latitudes. The TEC anomalies before the volcanic eruptions in low-mid latitudes are within the volcanic affected areas, but do not coincide with the volcanic foci. The corresponding TEC anomalies could be observed in the conjugated region, and all the TEC anomalies in the volcanic affected areas are usually close to bounds of equatorial anomaly zones. However, the TEC anomalies preceding these eruptions in high latitudes usually surround the volcano, and no TEC anomalies appear in the conjugated region. These conclusions have potential applications to the prediction of great volcanic eruptions in the future.

Seismo-ionospheric anomalies in total electron content of the GIM and electron density of DEMETER before the 27 February 2010 M8.8 Chile earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Yi-Ying; Jhuang, Hau-Kun; Su, Yung-Chih; Liu, Jann-Yenq

2013-06-01

In this paper we examine the pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies by the total electron content (TEC) extracted from GIM (global ionospheric map) and the electron density (Ne) observed by the DEMETER (Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions) satellite during the 2010 M8.8 Chile earthquake. Temporal variations show the nighttime TEC and Ne simultaneously increase 9-19 days before the earthquake. A cross-comparison of data recorded during the period of 1 February to 3 March in 2006-2010 confirms the above temporal anomalies specifically appear in 2010. The spatial analyses show that the anomalies tend to appear over the epicenter.

Aeromagnetic survey map of the central California Coast Ranges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langenheim, V.E.; Jachens, R.C.; Moussaoui, K.

2009-01-01

This aeromagnetic survey was flown as part of a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with the Pacific Gas and Electric Company and is intended to promote further understanding of the geology and structure in the central California Coast Ranges by serving as a basis for geophysical interpretations and by supporting geological mapping, mineral and water resource investigations, and other topical studies. Local spatial variations in the Earth's magnetic field (evident as anomalies on aeromagnetic maps) reflect the distribution of magnetic minerals, primarily magnetite, in the underlying rocks. In many cases the volume content of magnetic minerals can be related to rock type, and abrupt spatial changes in the amount of magnetic minerals can commonly mark lithologic or structural boundaries. Bodies of serpentinite and other mafic and ultramafic rocks tend to produce the most intense magnetic anomalies, but such generalizations must be applied with caution because rocks with more felsic compositions, such as the porphyritic granodiorite-granite of the La Panza Range, and even some sedimentary units, also can cause measurable magnetic anomalies.

Efficient dynamic events discrimination technique for fiber distributed Brillouin sensors.

PubMed

Galindez, Carlos A; Madruga, Francisco J; Lopez-Higuera, Jose M

2011-09-26

A technique to detect real time variations of temperature or strain in Brillouin based distributed fiber sensors is proposed and is investigated in this paper. The technique is based on anomaly detection methods such as the RX-algorithm. Detection and isolation of dynamic events from the static ones are demonstrated by a proper processing of the Brillouin gain values obtained by using a standard BOTDA system. Results also suggest that better signal to noise ratio, dynamic range and spatial resolution can be obtained. For a pump pulse of 5 ns the spatial resolution is enhanced, (from 0.541 m obtained by direct gain measurement, to 0.418 m obtained with the technique here exposed) since the analysis is concentrated in the variation of the Brillouin gain and not only on the averaging of the signal along the time. © 2011 Optical Society of America

Spatial Distribution and Secular Variation of Geomagnetic Filed in China Described by the CHAOS-6 Model and its Error Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.; Gu, Z.; Chen, B.; Yuan, J.; Wang, C.

2016-12-01

The CHAOS-6 geomagnetic field model, presented in 2016 by the Denmark's national space institute (DTU Space), is a model of the near-Earth magnetic field. According the CHAOS-6 model, seven component data of geomagnetic filed at 30 observatories in China in 2015 and at 3 observatories in China spanning the time interval 2008.0-2016.5 were calculated. Also seven component data of geomagnetic filed from the geomagnetic data of practical observations in China was obtained. Based on the model calculated data and the practical data, we have compared and analyzed the spatial distribution and the secular variation of the geomagnetic field in China. There is obvious difference between the two type data. The CHAOS-6 model cannot describe the spatial distribution and the secular variation of the geomagnetic field in China with comparative precision because of the regional and local magnetic anomalies in China.

Effects of a transient sea surface temperature anomaly on the energetics of the Mintz-Arakawa model atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chow, S. H.

1974-01-01

The possible response of the atmosphere, as simulated by the two level Mintz-Arakawa global general circulation model, to a transient North Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly is investigated in terms of the energetics both in the spatial and wave number domains. Results indicate that the transient SST variations of reasonable magnitude in the North Pacific Ocean can induce a disturbing effect on the global energetics both in the spatial and wave number domains. The ability of the two level Mintz-Arakawa model to simulate the atmospheric energetics is also examined. Except in the tropics, the model exhibits a reasonable and realistic energy budget.

Contribution of Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies to the Ongoing California Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, L.; Apps, D.; Arcand, S. E.

2015-12-01

The ongoing multiyear drought over California is a major concern for the residents of the golden state as it brings water restrictions in preparing for water shortages and wild fires due to dry and hot conditions. Both positive temperature and negative precipitation anomalies can contribute to drought developments, but how important are these anomalies for the ongoing California drought? Using the VIC hydrological model, this study investigated the relative contribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies to the ongoing 2011-2015 drought in comparison with another multiyear drought between 1987 and 1992 over the same region. By swapping the observed temperature and precipitation anomalies between two drought events, the study was able to show how temperature and precipitation anomalies and their spatial variability affect other elements of the hydrological cycle including evapotranspiration, soil moisture and streamflow, thus the severity of the drought. The comparison between these two events helps to reveal the unique characteristics of the current drought and provides useful insights for drought prediction and mitigation.

Characterising Record Flooding in the United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, A.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, J. A.

2017-12-01

Though the most notable floods in history have been carefully explained, there remains a lack of literature that explores the nature of record floods as a whole in the United Kingdom. We characterise the seasonality, statistical and spatial distribution, and meteorological causes of peak river flows for 521 gauging stations spread across the British Isles. We use annual maximum data from the National River Flow Archive, catchment descriptors from the Flood Estimation Handbook, and historical records of large floods. What we aim to find is in what ways, if any, the record flood for a station is different from more 'typical' floods. For each station, we calculate two indices: the seasonal anomaly and the flood index. Broadly, the seasonal anomaly is the degree to which a station's record flood happens at a different time of year compared to typical floods at that site, whilst the flood index is a station's record flood discharge divided by the discharge of the 1-in-10-year return period event. We find that while annual maximum peaks are dominated by winter frontal rainfall, record floods are disproportionately caused by summer convective rainfall. This analysis also shows that the larger the seasonal anomaly, the higher the flood index. Additionally, stations across the country have record floods that occur in the summer with no notable spatial pattern, yet the most seasonally anomalous record events are concentrated around the south and west of the British Isles. Catchment descriptors tell us little about the flood index at a particular station, but generally areas with lower mean annual precipitation have a higher flood index. The inclusion of case studies from recent and historical examples of notable floods across the UK supplements our analysis and gives insight into how typical these events are, both statistically and meteorologically. Ultimately, record floods in general happen at relatively unexpected times and with unpredictable magnitudes, which is a worrying reality for those who live in flood-prone areas, and to those who study the upper tail of flood events.

Method for identifying anomalous terrestrial heat flows

DOEpatents

Del Grande, Nancy Kerr

1977-01-25

A method for locating and mapping the magnitude and extent of terrestrial heat-flow anomalies from 5 to 50 times average with a tenfold improved sensitivity over orthodox applications of aerial temperature-sensing surveys as used for geothermal reconnaissance. The method remotely senses surface temperature anomalies such as occur from geothermal resources or oxidizing ore bodies by: measuring the spectral, spatial, statistical, thermal, and temporal features characterizing infrared radiation emitted by natural terrestrial surfaces; deriving from these measurements the true surface temperature with uncertainties as small as 0.05 to 0.5 K; removing effects related to natural temperature variations of topographic, hydrologic, or meteoric origin, the surface composition, detector noise, and atmospheric conditions; factoring out the ambient normal-surface temperature for non-thermally enhanced areas surveyed under otherwise identical environmental conditions; distinguishing significant residual temperature enhancements characteristic of anomalous heat flows and mapping the extent and magnitude of anomalous heat flows where they occur.

The stratospheric QBO signal in the NCEP reanalysis, 1958-2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, Pedro; Gallego, David; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina; Gimeno, Luis; Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo; Hernandez, Emiliano; Calvo, Natalia

2003-07-01

The spatiotemporal evolution of the zonal wind in the stratosphere is analyzed based on the use of the NCEP reanalysis (1958-2001). MultiTaper Method-Singular Value Decomposition (MTM-SVD), a frequency-domain analysis method, is applied to isolate significant spatially-coherent variability with narrowband oscillatory character. A quasibiennial oscillation is detected as the most intense coherent signal in the stratosphere, the signal being less intense in the lower levels. There is a clear downward propagation of the signal with time at low latitudes, not evident at mid and high latitudes. There are differences in the behavior of the signal over both hemispheres, being much weaker over the SH. In the NH an anomaly in the zonal wind field, in phase with the equatorial signal, is detected at approximately 60°N. Two different areas at subtropical latitudes are detected to be characterized by wind anomalies opposed to that of the equator.

Mass movements and tree rings: A guide to dendrogeomorphic field sampling and dating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoffel, Markus; Butler, David R.; Corona, Christophe

2013-10-01

Trees affected by mass movements record the evidence of geomorphic disturbance in the growth-ring series, and thereby provide a precise geochronological tool for the reconstruction of past activity of mass movement. The identification of past activity of processes was typically based on the presence of growth anomalies in affected trees and focused on the presence of scars, tilted or buried trunks, as well as on apex decapitation. For the analyses and interpretation of disturbances in tree-ring records, in contrast, clear guidelines have not been established, with largely differing or no thresholds used to distinguish signal from noise. At the same time, processes with a large spatial footprint (e.g., snow avalanches, landslides, or floods) will likely leave growth anomalies in a large number of trees, whereas a falling rock would only cause scars in one or a few trees along its trajectory.

Gravity anomalies near the east Pacific rise with wavelengths shorter than 3300 km recovered from GEOS-3/ATS-6 satellite-to-satellite Doppler tracking data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marsh, J. G.; Marsh, B. D.; Conrad, T. D.; Wells, W. T.; Williamson, R. G.

1977-01-01

The velocity of the GEOS-3 satellite measured by Doppler as a function of time from the ATS-6 satellite was used to recover gravity anomalies in the region of the East Pacific. The orbit GEOS-3 at an altitude of 840 km was perturbed by spatial changes in Earth's gravitational field. These perturbations were measured via ATS-6 which is in a synchronous orbit at an altitude of about 40,000 km. The range-rate data were reduced using a gravitational field model complete to the 12 degree and order. A simulation of the possible effects causing the remaining range-rate residuals relative to the 12, 12 field shows that in general the dominant effect is the neglect of the higher degree and order coefficients of the gravitational field model.

Ionospheric responses during equinox and solstice periods over Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karatay, Secil; Cinar, Ali; Arikan, Feza

2017-11-01

Ionospheric electron density is the determining variable for investigation of the spatial and temporal variations in the ionosphere. Total Electron Content (TEC) is the integral of the electron density along a ray path that indicates the total variability through the ionosphere. Global Positioning System (GPS) recordings can be utilized to estimate the TEC, thus GPS proves itself as a useful tool in monitoring the total variability of electron distribution within the ionosphere. This study focuses on the analysis of the variations of ionosphere over Turkey that can be grouped into anomalies during equinox and solstice periods using TEC estimates obtained by a regional GPS network. It is observed that noon time depletions in TEC distributions predominantly occur in winter for minimum Sun Spots Numbers (SSN) in the central regions of Turkey which also exhibit high variability due to midlatitude winter anomaly. TEC values and ionospheric variations at solstice periods demonstrate significant enhancements compared to those at equinox periods.

Assessing Global Water Storage Variability from GRACE: Trends, Seasonal Cycle, Subseasonal Anomalies and Extremes.

PubMed

Humphrey, Vincent; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I

Throughout the past decade, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has given an unprecedented view on global variations in terrestrial water storage. While an increasing number of case studies have provided a rich overview on regional analyses, a global assessment on the dominant features of GRACE variability is still lacking. To address this, we survey key features of temporal variability in the GRACE record by decomposing gridded time series of monthly equivalent water height into linear trends, inter-annual, seasonal, and subseasonal (intra-annual) components. We provide an overview of the relative importance and spatial distribution of these components globally. A correlation analysis with precipitation and temperature reveals that both the inter-annual and subseasonal anomalies are tightly related to fluctuations in the atmospheric forcing. As a novelty, we show that for large regions of the world high-frequency anomalies in the monthly GRACE signal, which have been partly interpreted as noise, can be statistically reconstructed from daily precipitation once an adequate averaging filter is applied. This filter integrates the temporally decaying contribution of precipitation to the storage changes in any given month, including earlier precipitation. Finally, we also survey extreme dry anomalies in the GRACE record and relate them to documented drought events. This global assessment sets regional studies in a broader context and reveals phenomena that had not been documented so far.

A nonlinear background removal method for seismo-ionospheric anomaly analysis under a complex solar activity scenario: A case study of the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Liming; Wu, Lixin; Pulinets, Sergey; Liu, Shanjun; Yang, Fan

2012-07-01

A precise determination of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) anomaly variations that are likely associated with large earthquakes as observed by global positioning system (GPS) requires the elimination of the ionospheric effect from irregular solar electromagnetic radiation. In particular, revealing the seismo-ionospheric anomalies when earthquakes occurred during periods of high solar activity is of utmost importance. To overcome this constraint, a multiresolution time series processing technique based on wavelet transform applicable to global ionosphere map (GIM) TEC data was used to remove the nonlinear effect from solar radiation for the earthquake that struck Tohoku, Japan, on 11 March, 2011. As a result, it was found that the extracted TEC have a good correlation with the measured solar extreme ultraviolet flux in 26-34 nm (EUV26-34) and the 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7). After removing the influence of solar radiation origin in GIM TEC, the analysis results show that the TEC around the forthcoming epicenter and its conjugate were significantly enhanced in the afternoon period of 8 March 2011, 3 days before the earthquake. The spatial distributions of the TEC anomalous and extreme enhancements indicate that the earthquake preparation process had brought with a TEC anomaly area of size approximately 1650 and 5700 km in the latitudinal and longitudinal directions, respectively.

Large scale anomalies in the microwave background: causation and correlation.

PubMed

Aslanyan, Grigor; Easther, Richard

2013-12-27

Most treatments of large scale anomalies in the microwave sky are a posteriori, with unquantified look-elsewhere effects. We contrast these with physical models of specific inhomogeneities in the early Universe which can generate these apparent anomalies. Physical models predict correlations between candidate anomalies and the corresponding signals in polarization and large scale structure, reducing the impact of cosmic variance. We compute the apparent spatial curvature associated with large-scale inhomogeneities and show that it is typically small, allowing for a self-consistent analysis. As an illustrative example we show that a single large plane wave inhomogeneity can contribute to low-l mode alignment and odd-even asymmetry in the power spectra and the best-fit model accounts for a significant part of the claimed odd-even asymmetry. We argue that this approach can be generalized to provide a more quantitative assessment of potential large scale anomalies in the Universe.

The transient response of ice-shelf melting to ocean change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, P.

2017-12-01

Idealised modelling studies show that the melting of ice shelves varies as a quadratic function of ocean temperature. This means that warm-water ice shelves have higher melt rates and are also more sensitive to ocean warming. However, this result is the equilibrium response, derived from a set of ice—ocean simulations subjected to a fixed ocean forcing and run until steady. This study considers instead the transient response of melting, using unsteady simulations subjected to forcing conditions that are oscillated in time with a range of periods. The results show that when the ocean forcing is varied slowly, the melt rates follow the equililbrium response. However, for rapid ocean change melting deviates from the equilibrium response in interesting ways. The residence time of water in the sub-ice cavity offers a critical timescale. When the forcing varies slowly (period of oscillation >> residence time), the cavity is fully-flushed with forcing anomalies at all stages of the cycle and melting follows the equilibrium response. When the forcing varies rapidly (period ≤ residence time), multiple cold and warm anomalies coexist in the cavity, cancelling each other in the spatial mean and thus inducing a relatively steady melt rate. This implies that all ice shelves have a maximum frequency of ocean variability that can be manifested in melting. The results also show that ice shelves forced by warm water have high melt rates, high equilibrium sensitivity, and short residence times, hence a short timescale over which the equilibrium sensitivity is manifest. The most rapid melting adjustment is induced by warm anomalies that are also saline. Thus, ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, Antarctica, are highly sensitive to ocean change.

Anomaly detection driven active learning for identifying suspicious tracks and events in WAMI video

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, David J.; Natraj, Aditya; Hockenbury, Ryler; Dunn, Katherine; Sheffler, Michael; Sullivan, Kevin

2012-06-01

We describe a comprehensive system for learning to identify suspicious vehicle tracks from wide-area motion (WAMI) video. First, since the road network for the scene of interest is assumed unknown, agglomerative hierarchical clustering is applied to all spatial vehicle measurements, resulting in spatial cells that largely capture individual road segments. Next, for each track, both at the cell (speed, acceleration, azimuth) and track (range, total distance, duration) levels, extreme value feature statistics are both computed and aggregated, to form summary (p-value based) anomaly statistics for each track. Here, to fairly evaluate tracks that travel across different numbers of spatial cells, for each cell-level feature type, a single (most extreme) statistic is chosen, over all cells traveled. Finally, a novel active learning paradigm, applied to a (logistic regression) track classifier, is invoked to learn to distinguish suspicious from merely anomalous tracks, starting from anomaly-ranked track prioritization, with ground-truth labeling by a human operator. This system has been applied to WAMI video data (ARGUS), with the tracks automatically extracted by a system developed in-house at Toyon Research Corporation. Our system gives promising preliminary results in highly ranking as suspicious aerial vehicles, dismounts, and traffic violators, and in learning which features are most indicative of suspicious tracks.

Application of Data Cubes for Improving Detection of Water Cycle Extreme Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Albayrak, Arif; Teng, William

2015-01-01

As part of an ongoing NASA-funded project to remove a longstanding barrier to accessing NASA data (i.e., accessing archived time-step array data as point-time series), for the hydrology and other point-time series-oriented communities, "data cubes" are created from which time series files (aka "data rods") are generated on-the-fly and made available as Web services from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). Data cubes are data as archived rearranged into spatio-temporal matrices, which allow for easy access to the data, both spatially and temporally. A data cube is a specific case of the general optimal strategy of reorganizing data to match the desired means of access. The gain from such reorganization is greater the larger the data set. As a use case of our project, we are leveraging existing software to explore the application of the data cubes concept to machine learning, for the purpose of detecting water cycle extreme events, a specific case of anomaly detection, requiring time series data. We investigate the use of support vector machines (SVM) for anomaly classification. We show an example of detection of water cycle extreme events, using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM).

Multi-pentad prediction of precipitation variability over Southeast Asia during boreal summer using BCC_CSM1.2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chengcheng; Ren, Hong-Li; Zhou, Fang; Li, Shuanglin; Fu, Joshua-Xiouhua; Li, Guoping

2018-06-01

Precipitation is highly variable in space and discontinuous in time, which makes it challenging for models to predict on subseasonal scales (10-30 days). We analyze multi-pentad predictions from the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.2 (BCC_CSM1.2), which are based on hindcasts from 1997 to 2014. The analysis focus on the skill of the model to predict precipitation variability over Southeast Asia from May to September, as well as its connections with intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). The effective precipitation prediction length is about two pentads (10 days), during which the skill measured by anomaly correlation is greater than 0.1. In order to further evaluate the performance of the precipitation prediction, the diagnosis results of the skills of two related circulation fields show that the prediction skills for the circulation fields exceed that of precipitation. Moreover, the prediction skills tend to be higher when the amplitude of ISO is large, especially for a boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. The skills associated with phases 2 and 5 are higher, but that of phase 3 is relatively lower. Even so, different initial phases reflect the same spatial characteristics, which shows higher skill of precipitation prediction in the northwest Pacific Ocean. Finally, filter analysis is used on the prediction skills of total and subseasonal anomalies. The results of the two anomaly sets are comparable during the first two lead pentads, but thereafter the skill of the total anomalies is significantly higher than that of the subseasonal anomalies. This paper should help advance research in subseasonal precipitation prediction.

Characterization of extreme years in Central Europe between 2000 and 2016 according to specific vegetation characteristics based on Earth Observatory data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kern, Anikó; Marjanović, Hrvoje; Barcza, Zoltán

2017-04-01

Extreme weather events frequently occur in Central Europe, affecting the state of the vegetation in large areas. Droughts and heat-waves affect all plant functional types, but the response of the vegetation is not uniform and depends on other parameters, plant strategies and the antecedent meteorological conditions as well. Meteorologists struggle with the definition of extreme events and selection of years that can be considered as extreme in terms of meteorological conditions due to the large variability of the meteorological parameters both in time and space. One way to overcome this problem is the definition of extreme weather based on its observed effect on plant state. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), the Leaf Area Index (LAI), the Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) and the Gross Primary Production (GPP) are different measures of the land vegetation derived from remote sensing data, providing information about the plant state, but it is less known how weather anomalies affect these measures. We used the vegetation related official products created from the measurements of the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board satellite Terra to select and characterize the extreme years in Central European countries during the 2000-2016 time period. The applied Collection-6 MOD13 NDVI/EVI, MOD15 LAI/FPAR and MOD17 GPP datasets have 500 m × 500 m spatial resolution covering the region of the Carpathian-Basin. After quality and noise filtering (and temporal interpolation in case of MOD13) 8-day anomaly values were derived to investigate the different years. The freely available FORESEE meteorological database was used to study climate variability in the region. Daily precipitation and maximum/minimum temperature fields at 1/12° × 1/12° grid were resampled to the 8-day temporal and 500 m × 500 m spatial resolution of the MODIS products. To discriminate the different behavior of the various plant functional types MODIS (MCD12) and CORINE (CLC2012) land cover datasets were applied and handled together. Based on the determination of the reliable pixels with different plant types the response of broadleaf forests, coniferous forests, grasslands and croplands were discriminated and investigated. Characteristic time periods were selected based on the remote sensing data to define anomalies, and then the meteorological data were used to define critical time periods within the year that has the strongest effect on the observed anomalies. Similarities/dissimilarities between the behaviors of the different remotely sensed measures are also studied to elucidate the consistency of the indices. The results indicate that the diverse remote sensing indices typically co-vary but reveal strong plant functional type dependency. The study suggest that the selection of extreme years based on annual data is not the best choice, as shorter time periods within the years explain the anomalies to a higher degree than annual data. The results can be used to select anomalous years outside of the satellite era as well. Keywords: Remote sensing, meteorology; extreme years; MODIS, NDVI; EVI; LAI; FPAR; GPP; phenology

Ecosystem variability along the estuarine salinity gradient: Examples from long-term study of San Francisco Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cloern, James E.; Jassby, Alan D.; Schraga, Tara; Kress, Erica S.; Martin, Charles A.

2017-01-01

The salinity gradient of estuaries plays a unique and fundamental role in structuring spatial patterns of physical properties, biota, and biogeochemical processes. We use variability along the salinity gradient of San Francisco Bay to illustrate some lessons about the diversity of spatial structures in estuaries and their variability over time. Spatial patterns of dissolved constituents (e.g., silicate) can be linear or nonlinear, depending on the relative importance of river-ocean mixing and internal sinks (diatom uptake). Particles have different spatial patterns because they accumulate in estuarine turbidity maxima formed by the combination of sinking and estuarine circulation. Some constituents have weak or no mean spatial structure along the salinity gradient, reflecting spatially distributed sources along the estuary (nitrate) or atmospheric exchanges that buffer spatial variability of ecosystem metabolism (dissolved oxygen). The density difference between freshwater and seawater establishes stratification in estuaries stronger than the thermal stratification of lakes and oceans. Stratification is strongest around the center of the salinity gradient and when river discharge is high. Spatial distributions of motile organisms are shaped by species-specific adaptations to different salinity ranges (shrimp) and by behavioral responses to environmental variability (northern anchovy). Estuarine spatial patterns change over time scales of events (intrusions of upwelled ocean water), seasons (river inflow), years (annual weather anomalies), and between eras separated by ecosystem disturbances (a species introduction). Each of these lessons is a piece in the puzzle of how estuarine ecosystems are structured and how they differ from the river and ocean ecosystems they bridge.

Paleoclimatic Reconstructions From Plant Macrofossils For The Last Glacial Maximum, Middle Holocene, And Latest Holocene In The American Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, R. S.; Anderson, K.; Pelltier, R.; Strickland, L. E.; Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

2013-12-01

Fossil plant remains preserved in a variety of geologic settings provide direct evidence of where individual species lived in the past, and there are long-established methods for paleoclimatic reconstructions based on comparisons between modern and past geographic ranges of plant species. In principle, these methods use relatively straightforward procedures that frequently result in what appear to be very precise estimates of past temperature and moisture conditions. The reconstructed estimates can be mapped for specific time slices for synoptic-scale reconstructions for data-model comparisons. Although paleobotanical data can provide apparently precise estimates of past climatic conditions, it is difficult to gauge the associated uncertainties. The estimates may be affected by the choice of modern calibration data, reconstruction methods employed, and whether the climatic variable under consideration is an important determinant of the distributions of the species being considered. For time-slice reconstructions, there are also issues involving the adequacy of the spatial coverage of the fossil data and the degree of variability through time. To examine some of these issues, we estimated annual precipitation and summer and winter temperatures for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 × 1000 yr BP), Middle Holocene (MH, 6000 × 500 yr BP), and Latest Holocene (LH, the last 500 yrs), based on the application of four quantitative approaches to paleobotanical assemblages preserved in packrat middens in the American Southwest. Our results indicate that historic variability and difficulties in interpolating climatic values to fossil sites may impose ranges of uncertainties of more than × 1°C for temperature and × 50 mm for annual precipitation. Climatic estimates based on modern midden assemblages generally fall within these ranges, although there may be biases that differ regionally. Samples of similar age and location provide similar climatic estimates, and the four approaches usually result in anomalies of the same sign, but with differing amplitudes. There is considerable variability among the anomalies for samples within each time slice, and different time slices have different geographic coverages of samples. The reconstructed temperature anomalies are similar between the MH and LH time slices, and generally fall within the uncertainties related to the modern climatic data. LGM anomalies were significantly colder, and for many samples exceeded -5°C in both winter and summer. There are what appear to be significant MH annual precipitation anomalies to the south (dry after 6.2 ka)and to the northwest (wet before 6.2 ka), but it may be misleading to compare these, given the differences in age. Positive annual precipitation anomalies for the LGM are more than 100 mm in the northwest, and smaller in the northeast and south.

Anomaly Detection Based on Local Nearest Neighbor Distance Descriptor in Crowded Scenes

PubMed Central

Hu, Shiqiang; Zhang, Huanlong; Luo, Lingkun

2014-01-01

We propose a novel local nearest neighbor distance (LNND) descriptor for anomaly detection in crowded scenes. Comparing with the commonly used low-level feature descriptors in previous works, LNND descriptor has two major advantages. First, LNND descriptor efficiently incorporates spatial and temporal contextual information around the video event that is important for detecting anomalous interaction among multiple events, while most existing feature descriptors only contain the information of single event. Second, LNND descriptor is a compact representation and its dimensionality is typically much lower than the low-level feature descriptor. Therefore, not only the computation time and storage requirement can be accordingly saved by using LNND descriptor for the anomaly detection method with offline training fashion, but also the negative aspects caused by using high-dimensional feature descriptor can be avoided. We validate the effectiveness of LNND descriptor by conducting extensive experiments on different benchmark datasets. Experimental results show the promising performance of LNND-based method against the state-of-the-art methods. It is worthwhile to notice that the LNND-based approach requires less intermediate processing steps without any subsequent processing such as smoothing but achieves comparable event better performance. PMID:25105164

The joint space-time statistics of macroweather precipitation, space-time statistical factorization and macroweather models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lovejoy, S., E-mail: lovejoy@physics.mcgill.ca; Lima, M. I. P. de; Department of Civil Engineering, University of Coimbra, 3030-788 Coimbra

2015-07-15

Over the range of time scales from about 10 days to 30–100 years, in addition to the familiar weather and climate regimes, there is an intermediate “macroweather” regime characterized by negative temporal fluctuation exponents: implying that fluctuations tend to cancel each other out so that averages tend to converge. We show theoretically and numerically that macroweather precipitation can be modeled by a stochastic weather-climate model (the Climate Extended Fractionally Integrated Flux, model, CEFIF) first proposed for macroweather temperatures and we show numerically that a four parameter space-time CEFIF model can approximately reproduce eight or so empirical space-time exponents. In spitemore » of this success, CEFIF is theoretically and numerically difficult to manage. We therefore propose a simplified stochastic model in which the temporal behavior is modeled as a fractional Gaussian noise but the spatial behaviour as a multifractal (climate) cascade: a spatial extension of the recently introduced ScaLIng Macroweather Model, SLIMM. Both the CEFIF and this spatial SLIMM model have a property often implicitly assumed by climatologists that climate statistics can be “homogenized” by normalizing them with the standard deviation of the anomalies. Physically, it means that the spatial macroweather variability corresponds to different climate zones that multiplicatively modulate the local, temporal statistics. This simplified macroweather model provides a framework for macroweather forecasting that exploits the system's long range memory and spatial correlations; for it, the forecasting problem has been solved. We test this factorization property and the model with the help of three centennial, global scale precipitation products that we analyze jointly in space and in time.« less

Tropical Atlantic Dust and Smoke Aerosol Variations Related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation in MODIS and MISR Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guo, Yanjuan; Tian, Baijun; Kahn, Ralph A.; Kalashnikova, Olga; Wong, Sun; Waliser, Duane E.

2013-01-01

In this study, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fine mode fraction and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) nonspherical fraction data are used to derive dust and smoke aerosol optical thickness (T(sub dust) and T(sub smoke)) over the tropical Atlantic in a complementary way: due to its wider swath, MODIS has 3-4 times greater sampling than MISR, but MISR dust discrimination is based on particle shape retrievals, whereas an empirical scheme is used for MODIS. MODIS and MISR show very similar dust and smoke winter climatologies. T(sub dust) is the dominant aerosol component over the tropical Atlantic, accounting for 40-70 percent of the total aerosol optical thickness (AOT), whereas T(sub smoke) is significantly smaller than T(sub dust). The consistency and high correlation between these climatologies and their daily variations lends confidence to their use for investigating the relative dust and smoke contributions to the total AOT variation associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The temporal evolution and spatial patterns of the tdus anomalies associated with the MJO are consistent between MODIS and MISR: the magnitude of MJO-realted T(sub dust) anomalies is comparable to or even larger than that of the total T, while the T(sub smoke) anomaly represents about 15 percent compared to the total, which is quite different from their relative magnitudes to the total T on the climatological time scale. This suggests that dust and smoke are not influenced by the MJO in the same way. Based on correlation analysis, dust is strongly influenced by the MJO-modulated trade wind and precipitation anomalies, and can last as long as one MJO phase, whereas smoke is less affected.

Detection of admittivity anomaly on high-contrast heterogeneous backgrounds using frequency difference EIT.

PubMed

Jang, J; Seo, J K

2015-06-01

This paper describes a multiple background subtraction method in frequency difference electrical impedance tomography (fdEIT) to detect an admittivity anomaly from a high-contrast background conductivity distribution. The proposed method expands the use of the conventional weighted frequency difference EIT method, which has been used limitedly to detect admittivity anomalies in a roughly homogeneous background. The proposed method can be viewed as multiple weighted difference imaging in fdEIT. Although the spatial resolutions of the output images by fdEIT are very low due to the inherent ill-posedness, numerical simulations and phantom experiments of the proposed method demonstrate its feasibility to detect anomalies. It has potential application in stroke detection in a head model, which is highly heterogeneous due to the skull.

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

2016-10-31

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. We present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. Here, we find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth’s energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback betweenmore » the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. Our results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and o er a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.« less

Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael; Lyon, Bradfield; Funk, Chris

2013-01-01

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast period

Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Roberts, J. Brent; Bosilovich, Michael; Lyon, Bradfield

2013-01-01

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast period.

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. We present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. Here, we find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth’s energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback betweenmore » the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. Our results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and o er a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.« less

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth's energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

2016-12-01

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. Here we present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. We find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth's energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback between the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. These results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and offer a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.

Variability of the Tropical Ocean Surface Temperatures at Decadal-Multidecadal Timescales. Part I: The Atlantic Ocean.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehta, Vikram M.

1998-09-01

Gridded time series from the Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas were analyzed with a variety of techniques to identify spatial structures and oscillation periods of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variations at decadal timescales, and to develop physical interpretations of statistical patterns of decadal SST variations. Each time series was 110 yr (1882-1991) long. The tropical Atlantic SST variations were compared with decadal variations in a 74-yr-long (1912-85) north Nordeste Brazil rainfall time series and a 106-yr-long (1886-1991) tropical Atlantic cyclone activity index time series. The tropical Atlantic SST variations were also compared with decadal variations in the extratropical Atlantic SST.Multiyear to multidecadal variations in the cross-equatorial dipole pattern identified as a dominant empirical pattern of the tropical Atlantic SST variations in earlier and present studies are shown to be variations in the approximately north-south gradient of SST anomalies. It is also shown that there was no dynamical-thermodynamical, dipole mode of SST variations during the analysis period. There was a distinct decadal timescale (12-13 yr) of SST variations in the tropical South Atlantic, whereas no distinct decadal timescale was found in the tropical North Atlantic SST variations. Approximately 80% of the coherent decadal variance in the cross-equatorial SST gradient was `explained' by coherent decadal oscillations in the tropical South Atlantic SSTs. There were three, possibly physical, modes of decadal variations in the tropical Atlantic SSTs during the analysis period. In the more energetic mode of the North Atlantic decadal SST variations, anomalies traveled into the tropical North Atlantic from the extratropical North Atlantic along the eastern boundary of the basin. The anomalies strengthened and resided in the tropical North Atlantic for several years, then frequently traveled northward into the mid-high-latitude North Atlantic along the western boundary of the basin, and completed a clockwise rotation around the North Atlantic basin. In the less energetic North Atlantic decadal mode, SST anomalies originated in the tropical-subtropical North Atlantic near the African coast, and traveled northwestward and southward. In the South Atlantic decadal SST mode, anomalies either developed in situ or traveled into the tropical South Atlantic from the subtropical South Atlantic along the eastern boundary of the basin. The anomalies strengthened and resided in the tropical South Atlantic for several years, then frequently traveled southward into the subtropical South Atlantic along the western boundary of the basin, and completed a counterclockwise rotation around the South Atlantic basin. These decadal modes were not a permanent feature of the tropical Atlantic SST variations. The tropical North and South Atlantic SST anomalies frequently extended across the equator. Uncorrelated alignments of decadal SST anomalies having opposite signs on two sides of the equator occasionally created the apperance of a dipole.Independent analyses of the north Nordeste Brazil rainfall showed physical consistency and high coherence with the cross-equatorial SST gradient oscillations at 12-13-yr period. The tropical Atlantic cyclone index showed physical consistency but moderate coherence with the tropical North Atlantic decadal SST variations. The quasi-regularity of the 12-13-yr oscillations in the cross-equatorial SST gradient may provide an opportunity for long lead-time, skillful predictions of climate anomalies in the tropical Atlantic sector.

Baroclinic stabilization effect of the Atlantic-Arctic water exchange simulated by the eddy-permitting ocean model and global atmosphere-ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moshonkin, Sergey; Bagno, Alexey; Gritsun, Andrey; Gusev, Anatoly

2017-04-01

Numerical experiments were performed with the global atmosphere-ocean model INMCM5 (for version of the international project CMIP6, resolution for atmosphere is 2°x1.5°, 21 level) and with the three-dimensional, free surface, sigma coordinate eddy-permitting ocean circulation model for Atlantic (from 30°S) - Arctic and Bering sea domain (0.25 degrees resolution, Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model or INMOM). Spatial resolution of the INMCM5 oceanic component is 0.5°x0.25°. Both models have 40 s-levels in ocean. Previously, the simulations were carried out for INMCM5 to generate climatic system stable state. Then model was run for 180 years. In the experiment with INMOM, CORE-II data for 1948-2009 were used. As the goal for comparing results of two these numerical models, we selected evolution of the density and velocity anomalies in the 0-300m active ocean layer near Fram Strait in the Greenland Sea, where oceanic cyclonic circulation influences Atlantic-Arctic water exchange. Anomalies were count without climatic seasonal cycle for time scales smaller than 30 years. We use Singular Value Decomposition analysis (SVD) for density-velocity anomalies with time lag from minus one to six months. Both models perform identical stable physical result. They reveal that changes of heat and salt transports by West Spitsbergen and East Greenland currents, caused by atmospheric forcing, produce the baroclinic modes of velocity anomalies in 0-300m layer, thereby stabilizing ocean response on the atmospheric forcing, which stimulates keeping water exchange between the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean at the certain climatological level. The first SVD-mode of density-velocity anomalies is responsible for the cyclonic circulation variability. The second and third SVD-modes stabilize existing ocean circulation by the anticyclonic vorticity generation. The second and third SVD-modes give 35% of the input to the total dispersion of density anomalies and 16-18% of the input to the total dispersion of velocity anomalies for numerical results as in INMCM5 so in INMOM models. Input to the total dispersion of velocity anomalies for the first SVD-mode is equal to 50% for INMCM5 and only 19% for INMOM. The research was done in the INM RAS. The model INMOM was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant №16-05-00534), and the model INMCM was supported by the Russian Scientific Foundation (grant №14-27-00126).

Observations of Local Positive Low Cloud Feedback Patterns and Their Role in Internal Variability and Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Tianle; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven E.; Meyer, Kerry

2018-05-01

Modeling studies have shown that cloud feedbacks are sensitive to the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, while cloud feedbacks themselves strongly influence the magnitude of SST anomalies. Observational counterparts to such patterned interactions are still needed. Here we show that distinct large-scale patterns of SST and low-cloud cover (LCC) emerge naturally from objective analyses of observations and demonstrate their close coupling in a positive local SST-LCC feedback loop that may be important for both internal variability and climate change. The two patterns that explain the maximum amount of covariance between SST and LCC correspond to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, leading modes of multidecadal internal variability. Spatial patterns and time series of SST and LCC anomalies associated with both modes point to a strong positive local SST-LCC feedback. In many current climate models, our analyses suggest that SST-LCC feedback strength is too weak compared to observations. Modeled local SST-LCC feedback strength affects simulated internal variability so that stronger feedback produces more intense and more realistic patterns of internal variability. To the extent that the physics of the local positive SST-LCC feedback inferred from observed climate variability applies to future greenhouse warming, we anticipate significant amount of delayed warming because of SST-LCC feedback when anthropogenic SST warming eventually overwhelm the effects of internal variability that may mute anthropogenic warming over parts of the ocean. We postulate that many climate models may be underestimating both future warming and the magnitude of modeled internal variability because of their weak SST-LCC feedback.

Ionospheric Anomalies on the day of the Devastating Earthquakes during 2000-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Fanfan; Zhou, Yiyan; Zhu, Fuying

2013-04-01

The study of the ionospheric abnormal changes during the large earthquakes has attracted much attention for many years. Many papers have reported the deviations of Total Electron Content (TEC) around the epicenter. The statistical analysis concludes that the anomalous behavior of TEC is related with the earthquakes with high probability[1]. But the special cases have different features[2][3]. In this study, we carry out a new statistical analysis to investigate the nature of the ionospheric anomalies during the devastating earthquakes. To demonstrate the abnormal changes of the ionospheric TEC, we have examined the TEC database from the Global Ionosphere Map (GIM). The GIM ( ftp://cddisa.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/gps/products/ionex) includes about 200 of worldwide ground-based receivers of the GPS. The TEC data with resolution of 5° longitude and 2.5° latitude are routinely published in a 2-h time interval. The information of earthquakes is obtained from the USGS ( http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/epic/). To avoid the interference of the magnetic storm, the days with Dst≤-20 nT are excluded. Finally, a total of 13 M≥8.0 earthquakes in the global area during 2000-2012 are selected. The 27 days before the main shock are treated as the background days. Here, 27-day TEC median (Me) and the standard deviation (σ) are used to detect the variation of TEC. We set the upper bound BU = Me + 3*σ, and the lower bound BL = Me - 3*σ. Therefore the probability of a new TEC in the interval (BL, BU) is approximately 99.7%. If TEC varies between BU and BL, the deviation (DTEC) equals zero. Otherwise, the deviations between TEC and bounds are calculated as DTEC = BU/BL - TEC. From the deviations, the positive and negative abnormal changes of TEC can be evaluated. We investigate temporal and spatial signatures of the ionospheric anomalies on the day of the devastating earthquakes(M≥8.0). The results show that the occurrence rates of positive anomaly and negative anomaly are almost equal. The most significant anomaly on the day may occur at the time very close to the main shock, but sometimes it is not the case. The positions of the maximal deviations always deviate from the epicenter. The direction may be southeast, southwest, northeast or northwest with the almost equal probability. The anomalies may move to the epicenter, deviate to any direction, or stay at the same position and gradually fade out. There is no significant feature, such as occurrence time, position, or motion, and so on, which can indicate the source of the anomalies. References: [1].Le, H., J. Y. Liu, et al. (2011). "A statistical analysis of ionospheric anomalies before 736 M6.0+earthquakes during 2002-2010." J. Geophys. Res. 116. [2].Liu, J. Y., Y. I. Chen, et al. (2009). "Seismoionospheric GPS total electron content anomalies observed before the 12 May 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake." J. Geophys. Res. 114. [3].Rolland, L. M., P. Lognonne, et al. (2011). "Detection and modeling of Rayleigh wave induced patterns in the ionosphere." J. Geophys. Res. 116.

Quantifying Climatological Ranges and Anomalies for Pacific Coral Reef Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Gove, Jamison M.; Williams, Gareth J.; McManus, Margaret A.; Heron, Scott F.; Sandin, Stuart A.; Vetter, Oliver J.; Foley, David G.

2013-01-01

Coral reef ecosystems are exposed to a range of environmental forcings that vary on daily to decadal time scales and across spatial scales spanning from reefs to archipelagos. Environmental variability is a major determinant of reef ecosystem structure and function, including coral reef extent and growth rates, and the abundance, diversity, and morphology of reef organisms. Proper characterization of environmental forcings on coral reef ecosystems is critical if we are to understand the dynamics and implications of abiotic–biotic interactions on reef ecosystems. This study combines high-resolution bathymetric information with remotely sensed sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a and irradiance data, and modeled wave data to quantify environmental forcings on coral reefs. We present a methodological approach to develop spatially constrained, island- and atoll-scale metrics that quantify climatological range limits and anomalous environmental forcings across U.S. Pacific coral reef ecosystems. Our results indicate considerable spatial heterogeneity in climatological ranges and anomalies across 41 islands and atolls, with emergent spatial patterns specific to each environmental forcing. For example, wave energy was greatest at northern latitudes and generally decreased with latitude. In contrast, chlorophyll-a was greatest at reef ecosystems proximate to the equator and northern-most locations, showing little synchrony with latitude. In addition, we find that the reef ecosystems with the highest chlorophyll-a concentrations; Jarvis, Howland, Baker, Palmyra and Kingman are each uninhabited and are characterized by high hard coral cover and large numbers of predatory fishes. Finally, we find that scaling environmental data to the spatial footprint of individual islands and atolls is more likely to capture local environmental forcings, as chlorophyll-a concentrations decreased at relatively short distances (>7 km) from 85% of our study locations. These metrics will help identify reef ecosystems most exposed to environmental stress as well as systems that may be more resistant or resilient to future climate change. PMID:23637939

Quantifying climatological ranges and anomalies for Pacific coral reef ecosystems.

PubMed

Gove, Jamison M; Williams, Gareth J; McManus, Margaret A; Heron, Scott F; Sandin, Stuart A; Vetter, Oliver J; Foley, David G

2013-01-01

Coral reef ecosystems are exposed to a range of environmental forcings that vary on daily to decadal time scales and across spatial scales spanning from reefs to archipelagos. Environmental variability is a major determinant of reef ecosystem structure and function, including coral reef extent and growth rates, and the abundance, diversity, and morphology of reef organisms. Proper characterization of environmental forcings on coral reef ecosystems is critical if we are to understand the dynamics and implications of abiotic-biotic interactions on reef ecosystems. This study combines high-resolution bathymetric information with remotely sensed sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a and irradiance data, and modeled wave data to quantify environmental forcings on coral reefs. We present a methodological approach to develop spatially constrained, island- and atoll-scale metrics that quantify climatological range limits and anomalous environmental forcings across U.S. Pacific coral reef ecosystems. Our results indicate considerable spatial heterogeneity in climatological ranges and anomalies across 41 islands and atolls, with emergent spatial patterns specific to each environmental forcing. For example, wave energy was greatest at northern latitudes and generally decreased with latitude. In contrast, chlorophyll-a was greatest at reef ecosystems proximate to the equator and northern-most locations, showing little synchrony with latitude. In addition, we find that the reef ecosystems with the highest chlorophyll-a concentrations; Jarvis, Howland, Baker, Palmyra and Kingman are each uninhabited and are characterized by high hard coral cover and large numbers of predatory fishes. Finally, we find that scaling environmental data to the spatial footprint of individual islands and atolls is more likely to capture local environmental forcings, as chlorophyll-a concentrations decreased at relatively short distances (>7 km) from 85% of our study locations. These metrics will help identify reef ecosystems most exposed to environmental stress as well as systems that may be more resistant or resilient to future climate change.

Prediction of Significant Wave Heights in the Tropics at Sub-seasonal Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinter, J. L.; Shukla, R. P.; Shin, C. S.

2017-12-01

Skillfully predicting the 14-day mean significant wave height (SWH) forecasts at 3 weeks lead-time over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans has been demonstrated using the WAVEWATCH-3 (WW3) model coupled to a modified version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). In this paper, we present results on the effect of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events and El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on such predictions. Forecasts initialized with multiple ocean analyses in both January and May for 1979-2008 are evaluated. A significant anomaly correlation of predicted and observed SWH anomalies (SWHA) at 3 weeks lead-time is found over portions of the domain in both January and May cases. The model successfully predicts almost all the important features of the observed SWHA during El Niño events in January, including negative SWHA in the central Indian Ocean and northern western tropical Pacific, and positive SWHA over the southern Ocean and western Pacific. The model also reproduces the spatial pattern of the inverse relationship between SWHA and sea level pressure anomalies during both composite El Niño and La Niña events at 3 weeks lead-time. The model successfully predicts the sign and magnitude of SWHA in May over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea in composites of phases 2 and 6 of MJO. The observed leading mode of SWHA in May and the third mode of SWHA in January are influenced by the combined effects of MJO and ENSO. Analysis of the mechanisms for these relationships is described.

Statistical Techniques For Real-time Anomaly Detection Using Spark Over Multi-source VMware Performance Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Solaimani, Mohiuddin; Iftekhar, Mohammed; Khan, Latifur

Anomaly detection refers to the identi cation of an irregular or unusual pat- tern which deviates from what is standard, normal, or expected. Such deviated patterns typically correspond to samples of interest and are assigned different labels in different domains, such as outliers, anomalies, exceptions, or malware. Detecting anomalies in fast, voluminous streams of data is a formidable chal- lenge. This paper presents a novel, generic, real-time distributed anomaly detection framework for heterogeneous streaming data where anomalies appear as a group. We have developed a distributed statistical approach to build a model and later use it to detect anomaly. Asmore » a case study, we investigate group anomaly de- tection for a VMware-based cloud data center, which maintains a large number of virtual machines (VMs). We have built our framework using Apache Spark to get higher throughput and lower data processing time on streaming data. We have developed a window-based statistical anomaly detection technique to detect anomalies that appear sporadically. We then relaxed this constraint with higher accuracy by implementing a cluster-based technique to detect sporadic and continuous anomalies. We conclude that our cluster-based technique out- performs other statistical techniques with higher accuracy and lower processing time.« less

Interannual rainfall variability in the Amazon basin and sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and the tropical Atlantic Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronchail, Josyane; Cochonneau, Gérard; Molinier, Michel; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Chaves, Adriana Goretti De Miranda; Guimarães, Valdemar; de Oliveira, Eurides

2002-11-01

Rainfall variability in the Amazon basin is studied in relation to sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific and the northern and southern tropical Atlantic during the 1977-99 period, using the HiBAm original rainfall data set and complementary cluster and composite analyses.The northeastern part of the basin, north of 5 °S and east of 60 °W, is significantly related with tropical SSTs: a rainier wet season is observed when the equatorial Pacific and the northern (southern) tropical Atlantic are anomalously cold (warm). A shorter and drier wet season is observed during El Niño events and negative rainfall anomalies are also significantly associated with a warm northern Atlantic in the austral autumn and a cold southern Atlantic in the spring. The northeastern Amazon rainfall anomalies are closely related with El Niño-southern oscillation during the whole year, whereas the relationships with the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies are mainly observed during the autumn. A time-space continuity is observed between El Niño-related rainfall anomalies in the northeastern Amazon, those in the northern Amazon and south-eastern Amazon, and those in northern South America and in the Nordeste of Brazil.A reinforcement of certain rainfall anomalies is observed when specific oceanic events combine. For instance, when El Niño and cold SSTs in the southern Atlantic are associated, very strong negative anomalies are observed in the whole northern Amazon basin. Nonetheless, the comparison of the cluster and the composite analyses results shows that the rainfall anomalies in the northeastern Amazon are not always associated with tropical SST anomalies.In the southern and western Amazon, significant tropical SST-related rainfall anomalies are very few and spatially variable. The precipitation origins differ from those of the northeastern Amazon: land temperature variability, extratropical perturbations and moisture advection are important rainfall factors, as well as SSTs. This could partially explain why: (a) the above-mentioned signals weaken or disappear, with the exception of the relative dryness that is observed at the peak of an El Niño event and during the dry season when northern Atlantic SSTs are warmer than usual; (b) rainfall anomalies tend to resemble those of southeastern South America, noticeably at the beginning and the end of El Niño and La Niña events; (c) some strong excesses of rain are not associated with any SST anomalies and merit further investigation.

Statistical Traffic Anomaly Detection in Time-Varying Communication Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-01

methods perform better than their vanilla counterparts, which assume that normal traffic is stationary. Statistical Traffic Anomaly Detection in Time...our methods perform better than their vanilla counterparts, which assume that normal traffic is stationary. Index Terms—Statistical anomaly detection...anomaly detection but also for understanding the normal traffic in time-varying networks. C. Comparison with vanilla stochastic methods For both types

Statistical Traffic Anomaly Detection in Time Varying Communication Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-01

methods perform better than their vanilla counterparts, which assume that normal traffic is stationary. Statistical Traffic Anomaly Detection in Time...our methods perform better than their vanilla counterparts, which assume that normal traffic is stationary. Index Terms—Statistical anomaly detection...anomaly detection but also for understanding the normal traffic in time-varying networks. C. Comparison with vanilla stochastic methods For both types

Seasonal Climate Predictability in a Coupled OAGCM Using a Different Approach for Ensemble Forecasts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jing-Jia; Masson, Sebastien; Behera, Swadhin; Shingu, Satoru; Yamagata, Toshio

2005-11-01

Predictabilities of tropical climate signals are investigated using a relatively high resolution Scale Interaction Experiment Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) coupled GCM (SINTEX-F). Five ensemble forecast members are generated by perturbing the model’s coupling physics, which accounts for the uncertainties of both initial conditions and model physics. Because of the model’s good performance in simulating the climatology and ENSO in the tropical Pacific, a simple coupled SST-nudging scheme generates realistic thermocline and surface wind variations in the equatorial Pacific. Several westerly and easterly wind bursts in the western Pacific are also captured.Hindcast results for the period 1982 2001 show a high predictability of ENSO. All past El Niño and La Niña events, including the strongest 1997/98 warm episode, are successfully predicted with the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) skill scores above 0.7 at the 12-month lead time. The predicted signals of some particular events, however, become weak with a delay in the phase at mid and long lead times. This is found to be related to the intraseasonal wind bursts that are unpredicted beyond a few months of lead time. The model forecasts also show a “spring prediction barrier” similar to that in observations. Spatial SST anomalies, teleconnection, and global drought/flood during three different phases of ENSO are successfully predicted at 9 12-month lead times.In the tropical North Atlantic and southwestern Indian Ocean, where ENSO has predominant influences, the model shows skillful predictions at the 7 12-month lead times. The distinct signal of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event in 1994 is predicted at the 6-month lead time. SST anomalies near the western coast of Australia are also predicted beyond the 12-month lead time because of pronounced decadal signals there.

The annual and interannual variabilities of precipitable water, surface wind speed, and sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. Timothy

1989-01-01

The Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SSMR) provided simultaneous measurements of three geophysical parameters, each of which describing a certain aspect of the evolution of the 1982-1983 ENSO: the sea-surface temperature (T), precipitable water (W), and surface-wind speed (U). In this paper, values derived from the SSMR were compared with in situ measurements from ships, research buoys, and operational island stations in the tropical Pacific between January 1980 and October 1983, demonstrating the temporal and spatial coherence of the SSMR measurements. The results show that the variabilities of the surface convergence, sea surface temperature, and precipitable water are related. It was found that W anomalies were not always colocated with T anomalies, and that W anomalies were often associated with negative U anomalies, interpreted as surface convergence.

Atmospheric Parameter Climatologies from AIRS: Monitoring Short-, and Longer-Term Climate Variabilities and 'Trends'

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molnar, Gyula; Susskind, Joel

2008-01-01

The AIRS instrument is currently the best space-based tool to simultaneously monitor the vertical distribution of key climatically important atmospheric parameters as well as surface properties, and has provided high quality data for more than 5 years. AIRS analysis results produced at the GODDARD/DAAC, based on Versions 4 & 5 of the AIRS retrieval algorithm, are currently available for public use. Here, first we present an assessment of interrelationships of anomalies (proxies of climate variability based on 5 full years, since Sept. 2002) of various climate parameters at different spatial scales. We also present AIRS-retrievals-based global, regional and 1x1 degree grid-scale "trend"-analyses of important atmospheric parameters for this 5-year period. Note that here "trend" simply means the linear fit to the anomaly (relative the mean seasonal cycle) time series of various parameters at the above-mentioned spatial scales, and we present these to illustrate the usefulness of continuing AIRS-based climate observations. Preliminary validation efforts, in terms of intercomparisons of interannual variabilities with other available satellite data analysis results, will also be addressed. For example, we show that the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) interannual spatial variabilities from the available state-of-the-art CERES measurements and from the AIRS computations are in remarkably good agreement. Version 6 of the AIRS retrieval scheme (currently under development) promises to further improve bias agreements for the absolute values by implementing a more accurate radiative transfer model for the OLR computations and by improving surface emissivity retrievals.

Decomposing Worldwide Complete Spherical Bouguer Gravity Anomaly Using 2-D Empirical Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firdaus, Ruhul; Mey Ekawati, Gestin

2017-04-01

Currently available worldwide gravity anomaly data provides a high-resolution (2’×2’) of Complete Spherical Bouguer Anomaly (CSBA) based on the available information of the Earth gravity field from surface and satellite measurements. The data has not only been provided and processed thoroughly but it also has been claimed to be appropriate for various geophysical applications. Therefore, the analysis of gravity anomaly is becoming increasingly significant for the earth sciences as a whole and assisting both shallow and deep geological problems. Earth gravity anomaly has to be analyzed carefully as it has very complex data due to anomaly mixing of the density masses spread over the Earth horizontally and vertically. The bigger the spatial coverage of data (e.g. global scale data), the more severe the data from anomaly mixing due to various wavelength. BEMD is an empirical method supposedly suitable with highly oscillation-mixing data. It can effectively isolate each local anomaly in details and is analogized as successively reverse moving average with local windowing. BEMD is designed to reduce multi-component, non-linear gravity field data to a series of single local anomaly contributions. Anomaly from a single body was assumed as a mono-component signal. The main advantage of BEMD processing techniques is to present the subtle details in the data which are not clearly identified in anomaly maps, without specifying any prior information about the nature of the source bodies. As the result, we have identified regional anomalies due to the drift of continental and oceanic masses considered as crust-regional anomaly (CRA). We remove the CRA from the CBA to provide surface-residual anomaly (SRA) where shallow geologic bodies reveal. Meanwhile, the CRA itself can be used as reference to reduce this high magnitude anomaly from any measurement data to exhibit only shallow body anomaly. Further analysis can be carried out to build a general understanding of the details and parameters of the shallower or deeper causative body distributions.

Ionospheric winter anomaly and annual anomaly observed from Formosat-3/COSMIC Radio Occultation observations during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sai Gowtam, V.; Tulasi Ram, S.

2017-10-01

Ionospheric winter and annual anomalies have been investigated during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24 using high-resolution global 3D - data of the FORMOSAT - 3/COSMIC (Formosa satellite - 3/Constellation Observing System for Meterology, Ionosphere and Climate) radio occultation observations. Our detailed analysis shows that the occurrence of winter anomaly at low-latitudes is confined only to the early morning to afternoon hours, whereas, the winter anomaly at mid-latitudes is almost absent at all local times during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24. Further, in the topside ionosphere (altitudes of 400 km and above), the winter anomaly is completely absent at all local times. In contrast, the ionospheric annual anomaly is consistently observed at all local times and altitudes during this ascending phase of solar cycle 24. The annual anomaly exhibits strong enhancements over southern EIA crest latitudes during day time and around Weddle Sea Anomaly (WSA) region during night times. The global mean annual asymmetry index is also computed to understand the altitudinal variation. The global mean AI maximizes around 300-500 km altitudes during the low solar active periods (2008-10), whereas it extends up to 600 km during moderate to high (2011) solar activity period. These findings from our study provide new insights to the current understanding of the annual anomaly.

Tropical Atlantic Dust and Smoke Aerosol Variabilities Related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation in MODIS and MISR Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guo, Yanjuan; Tian, Baijun; Kahn, Ralph A.; Kalashnikova, Olga; Wong, Sun; Waliser, Duane E.

2012-01-01

In this study, MODIS fine mode fraction and MISR non-spherical fraction are 2used to derive dust and smoke AOT components (tau(sub dust) and tau(sub smoke)) over the tropical Atlantic, and their variabilities related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are then investigated. Both MODIS and MISR show a very similar dust and smoke winter climatology. tau(sub dust) is found to be the dominant aerosol component over the tropical Atlantic while tau(sub smoke) is significantly smaller than tau(sub dust). The daily MODIS and MISR tau(sub dust) are overall highly correlated, with the correlation coefficients typically about 0.7 over the North Atlantic. The consistency between the MODIS and MISR dust and smoke aerosol climatology and daily variations give us confidence to use these two data sets to investigate their relative contributions to the total AOT variation associated with the MJO. However, unlike the MISR dust discrimination, which is based on particle shape retrievals, the smoke discrimination is less certain, based on assumed partitioning of maritime aerosol for both MISR and MODIS. The temporal evolution and spatial patterns of the tau(sub dust) anomalies associated with the MJO are consistent between MODIS and MISR. The tau(sub dust) anomalies are very similar to those of tau anomalies, and are of comparable magnitude. In contrast, the MJO-related tau(sub smoke) anomalies are rather small, and the tau(sub mar) anomalies are negligible. The consistency between the MODIS and MISR results suggests that dust aerosol is the dominant component on the intra-seasonal time scale over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Tomographic imaging of Central Java, Indonesia: Preliminary result of joint inversion of the MERAMEX and MCGA earthquake data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohadi, Supriyanto; Widiyantoro, Sri; Nugraha, Andri Dian; Masturyono

2013-09-01

The realization of local earthquake tomography is usually conducted by removing distant events outside the study region, because these events may increase errors. In this study, tomographic inversion has been conducted using the travel time data of local and regional events in order to improve the structural resolution, especially for deep structures. We used the local MERapi Amphibious EXperiments (MERAMEX) data catalog that consists of 292 events from May to October 2004. The additional new data of regional events in the Java region were taken from the Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (MCGA) of Indonesia, which consist of 882 events, having at least 10 recording phases at each seismographic station from April 2009 to February 2011. We have conducted joint inversions of the combined data sets using double-difference tomography to invert for velocity structures and to conduct hypocenter relocation simultaneously. The checkerboard test results of Vp and Vs structures demonstrate a significantly improved spatial resolution from the shallow crust down to a depth of 165 km. Our tomographic inversions reveal a low velocity anomaly beneath the Lawu - Merapi zone, which is consistent with the results from previous studies. A strong velocity anomaly zone with low Vp, low Vs and low Vp/Vs is also identified between Cilacap and Banyumas. We interpret this anomaly as a fluid content material with large aspect ratio or sediment layer. This anomaly zone is in a good agreement with the existence of a large dome containing sediment in this area as proposed by previous geological studies. A low velocity anomaly zone is also detected in Kebumen, where it may be related to the extensional oceanic basin toward the land.

Channel Storage change: a new remote sensed surface water measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coss, S. P.; Durand, M. T.; Yi, Y.; Guo, Q.; Shum, C. K.; Allen, G. H.; Pavelsky, T.

2017-12-01

Here we present river channel storage change (CSC) measurements for 17 major world rivers from 2002-2016. We combined interpolated daily 1 km resolution Global River Radar Altimeter Time Series (GRRATS) river surface elevation data with static widths from the global river Global River Widths from Landsat (GRWL) dataset, to generate preliminary channel storage measurements. CSC is a previously unmeasured component of the terrestrial water balance It is a fundamental Earth science quantity with global bearing on floodplains, ecology, and geochemistry. CSC calculations require only remote sensed data, making them an ideal tool for studying remote regions where hydrological data is not easily accessible. CSC is uniquely suited to determine the role of hydrologic and hydraulic controls in basins with strong seasonal cycles (freeze-up and break-up). The cumulative CSC anomaly can impart spatial details that discharge measurements cannot. With this new measurement, we may be able to determine critical hydrological and hydraulic controls on rapidly changing systems like Arctic rivers. Results for Mississippi River indicate that peak CSC anomaly was the highest in 2011 (12.6 km3) and minimum CSC anomaly was in 2012 (-12.2 km3). Peak CSC has most frequently occurs in May (5 years), but has come as late in the year as July, and as early as January. Results for the Yukon River indicate that peak CSC anomaly was the highest in 2013 (13.9 km3) and minimum CSC anomaly was in 2010 (-14.2 km3). Peak CSC has most frequently come in early to mid-June (4-18), but has occurred in May (19-31) four years in the study period (three of the last 6 years) and once on April 30th.

Seismic b-values and its correlation with seismic moment and Bouguer gravity anomaly over Indo-Burma ranges of northeast India: Tectonic implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bora, Dipok K.; Borah, Kajaljyoti; Mahanta, Rinku; Borgohain, Jayanta Madhab

2018-03-01

b-value is one of the most significant seismic parameters for describing the seismicity of a given region at a definite time window. In this study, high-resolution map of the Gutenberg-Richter b-value, seismic moment-release, Bouguer gravity anomaly and fault-plane solutions containing faulting styles are analyzed in the Indo-Burma ranges of northeast India using the unified and homogeneous part of the seismicity record in the region (January 1964-December 2016). The study region is subdivided into few square grids of geographical window size 1° × 1° and b-values are calculated in each square grid. Our goal is to explore the spatial correlations and anomalous patterns between the b-value and parameters like seismic moment release, Bouguer gravity anomaly and faulting styles that can help us to better understand the seismotectonics and the state of present-day crustal stress within the Indo-Burma region. Most of the areas show an inverse correlation between b-value and seismic moment release as well as convergence rates. While estimating the b-value as a function of depth, a sudden increase of b-value at a depth of 50-60 km was found out and the receiver function modeling confirms that this depth corresponds to the crust-mantle transition beneath the study region. The region is also associated with negative Bouguer gravity anomalies and an inverse relation is found between Gravity anomaly and b-value. Comparing b-values with different faulting styles, reveal that the areas containing low b-values show thrust mechanism, while the areas associated with intermediate b-values show strike-slip mechanism. Those areas, where the events show thrust mechanism but containing a strike-slip component has the highest b-value.

Tomographic imaging of Central Java, Indonesia: Preliminary result of joint inversion of the MERAMEX and MCGA earthquake data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rohadi, Supriyanto; Widiyantoro, Sri; Nugraha, Andri Dian

The realization of local earthquake tomography is usually conducted by removing distant events outside the study region, because these events may increase errors. In this study, tomographic inversion has been conducted using the travel time data of local and regional events in order to improve the structural resolution, especially for deep structures. We used the local MERapi Amphibious EXperiments (MERAMEX) data catalog that consists of 292 events from May to October 2004. The additional new data of regional events in the Java region were taken from the Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (MCGA) of Indonesia, which consist of 882 events,more » having at least 10 recording phases at each seismographic station from April 2009 to February 2011. We have conducted joint inversions of the combined data sets using double-difference tomography to invert for velocity structures and to conduct hypocenter relocation simultaneously. The checkerboard test results of Vp and Vs structures demonstrate a significantly improved spatial resolution from the shallow crust down to a depth of 165 km. Our tomographic inversions reveal a low velocity anomaly beneath the Lawu - Merapi zone, which is consistent with the results from previous studies. A strong velocity anomaly zone with low Vp, low Vs and low Vp/Vs is also identified between Cilacap and Banyumas. We interpret this anomaly as a fluid content material with large aspect ratio or sediment layer. This anomaly zone is in a good agreement with the existence of a large dome containing sediment in this area as proposed by previous geological studies. A low velocity anomaly zone is also detected in Kebumen, where it may be related to the extensional oceanic basin toward the land.« less

Spatially Resolved Analysis of Amines Using a Fluorescence Molecular Probe: Molecular Analysis of IDPs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clemett, S. J.; Messenger, S.; Thomas-Keprta, K. L.; Wentworth, S. J.; Robinson, G. A.; McKay, D. S.

2002-01-01

Some Interplanetary Dust Particles (IDPs) have large isotope anomalies in H and N. To address the nature of the carrier phase, we are developing a procedure to spatially resolve the distribution of organic species on IDP thin sections utilizing fluorescent molecular probes. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Processing of the marine magnetic anomalies of the Caribbean region and the Gulf of Mexico (GOM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, Andreina; Dyment, Jérôme; Thébault, Erwan

2015-04-01

Marine magnetic anomalies are useful to better understand the structure and age of the seafloor and constrain its nature and formation. In this work, we applied a dedicated processing of the NGDC marine magnetic measurements over the Caribbean region. The number of available surveys amounts to 516 representing 2.612.994 data points between epochs 1958 and 2012. The pre-processing was done by survey. First, data associated to velocities lesser than 5 knots were rejected. Then, the data were corrected for the main internal field using the CM4 model for epochs ranging between 1960 and 2002,5 and the IGRF-11 model outside the time range of the CM4 model. A visual inspection of the anomalies allowed us to identify, to remove evident outliers and to define a priority order for each survey. We evaluated the magnetic heading effect and corrected the data for it although statistics analysis suggested that this correction brings only a marginal improvement. The cross-overs differences were estimated using the x2sys package (Wessel, 2010) and then corrected using a Matlab code. The statistics confirmed the importance of this processing and improved the internal crossovers, with in particular a clear reduction of extreme values. This processing allows us to present a marine magnetic anomaly map of the Caribbean region and the Gulf of Mexico to 0.18 degree spatial resolution and to discuss the magnetic signature of some of the striking structures of the area.

Radiation anomaly detection algorithms for field-acquired gamma energy spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhopadhyay, Sanjoy; Maurer, Richard; Wolff, Ron; Guss, Paul; Mitchell, Stephen

2015-08-01

The Remote Sensing Laboratory (RSL) is developing a tactical, networked radiation detection system that will be agile, reconfigurable, and capable of rapid threat assessment with high degree of fidelity and certainty. Our design is driven by the needs of users such as law enforcement personnel who must make decisions by evaluating threat signatures in urban settings. The most efficient tool available to identify the nature of the threat object is real-time gamma spectroscopic analysis, as it is fast and has a very low probability of producing false positive alarm conditions. Urban radiological searches are inherently challenged by the rapid and large spatial variation of background gamma radiation, the presence of benign radioactive materials in terms of the normally occurring radioactive materials (NORM), and shielded and/or masked threat sources. Multiple spectral anomaly detection algorithms have been developed by national laboratories and commercial vendors. For example, the Gamma Detector Response and Analysis Software (GADRAS) a one-dimensional deterministic radiation transport software capable of calculating gamma ray spectra using physics-based detector response functions was developed at Sandia National Laboratories. The nuisance-rejection spectral comparison ratio anomaly detection algorithm (or NSCRAD), developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, uses spectral comparison ratios to detect deviation from benign medical and NORM radiation source and can work in spite of strong presence of NORM and or medical sources. RSL has developed its own wavelet-based gamma energy spectral anomaly detection algorithm called WAVRAD. Test results and relative merits of these different algorithms will be discussed and demonstrated.

Linking sewage pollution and water quality to spatial patterns of Porites lobata growth anomalies in Puako, Hawaii.

PubMed

Yoshioka, Reyn M; Kim, Catherine J S; Tracy, Allison M; Most, Rebecca; Harvell, C Drew

2016-03-15

Sewage pollution threatens the health of coastal populations and ecosystems, including coral reefs. We investigated spatial patterns of sewage pollution in Puako, Hawaii using enterococci concentrations and δ(15)N Ulva fasciata macroalgal bioassays to assess relationships with the coral disease Porites lobata growth anomalies (PGAs). PGA severity and enterococci concentrations were high, spatially variable, and positively related. Bioassay algal δ(15)N showed low sewage pollution at the reef edge while high values of resident algae indicated sewage pollution nearshore. Neither δ(15)N metric predicted PGA measures, though bioassay δ(15)N was negatively related to coral cover. Furthermore, PGA prevalence was much higher than previously recorded in Hawaii and the greater Indo-Pacific, highlighting Puako as an area of concern. Although further work is needed to resolve the relationship between sewage pollution and coral cover and disease, these results implicate sewage pollution as a contributor to diminished reef health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rare Earth Element Measurements of Melilite and Fassaite in Allende Cai by Nanosims

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ito, M.; Messenger, Scott

2009-01-01

The rare earth elements (REEs) are concentrated in CAIs by approx. 20 times the chondritic average [e.g., 1]. The REEs in CAIs are important to understand processes of CAI formation including the role of volatilization, condensation, and fractional crystallization [1,2]. REE measurements are a well established application of ion microprobes [e.g., 3]. However the spatial resolution of REE measurements by ion microprobe (approx.20 m) is not adequate to resolve heterogeneous distributions of REEs among/within minerals. We have developed methods for measuring REE with the NanoSIMS 50L at smaller spatial scales. Here we present our initial measurements of REEs in melilite and fassaite in an Allende Type-A CAI with the JSC NanoSIMS 50L. We found that the key parameters for accurate REE abundance measurements differ between the NanoSIMS and conventional SIMS, in particular the oxide-to-element ratios, the relative sensitivity factors, the energy distributions, and requisite energy offset. Our REE abundance measurements of the 100 ppm REE diopside glass standards yielded good reproducibility and accuracy, 0.5-2.5 % and 5-25 %, respectively. We determined abundances and spatial distributions of REEs in core and rim within single crystals of fassaite, and adjacent melilite with 5-10 m spatial resolution. The REE abundances in fassaite core and rim are 20-100 times CI abundance but show a large negative Eu anomaly, exhibiting a well-defined Group III pattern. This is consistent with previous work [4]. On the other hand, adjacent melilite shows modified Group II pattern with no strong depletions of Eu and Yb, and no Tm positive anomaly. REE abundances (2-10 x CI) were lower than that of fassaite. These patterns suggest that fassaite crystallized first followed by a crystallization of melilite from the residual melt. In future work, we will carry out a correlated study of O and Mg isotopes and REEs of the CAI in order to better understand the nature and timescales of its formation process and subsequent metamorphic history.

Characterizing Air Temperature Changes in the Tarim Basin over 1960–2012

PubMed Central

Peng, Dongmei; Wang, Xiujun; Zhao, Chenyi; Wu, Xingren; Jiang, Fengqing; Chen, Pengxiang

2014-01-01

There has been evidence of warming rate varying largely over space and between seasons. However, little has been done to evaluate the spatial and temporal variability of air temperature in the Tarim Basin, northwest China. In this study, we collected daily air temperature from 19 meteorological stations for the period of 1960–2012, and analyzed annual mean temperature (AMT), the annual minimum (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax), and mean temperatures of all twelve months and four seasons and their anomalies. Trend analyses, standard deviation of the detrended anomaly (SDDA) and correlations were carried out to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of various mean air temperatures. Our data showed that increasing trend was much greater in the Tmin (0.55°C/10a) than in the AMT (0.25°C/10a) and Tmax (0.12°C/10a), and the fluctuation followed the same order. There were large spatial variations in the increasing trends of both AMT (from −0.09 to 0.43 °C/10a) and Tmin (from 0.15 to 1.12°C/10a). Correlation analyses indicated that AMT had a significantly linear relationship with Tmin and the mean temperatures of four seasons. There were also pronounced changes in the monthly air temperature from November to March at decadal time scale. The seasonality (i.e., summer and winter difference) of air temperature was stronger during the period of 1960–1979 than over the recent three decades. Our preliminary analyses indicated that local environmental conditions (such as elevation) might be partly responsible for the spatial variability, and large scale climate phenomena might have influences on the temporal variability of air temperature in the Tarim Basin. In particular, there was a significant correlation between index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and air temperature of May (P = 0.004), and between the index of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and air temperature of July (P = 0.026) over the interannual to decadal time scales. PMID:25375648

Visual saliency detection based on modeling the spatial Gaussianity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ju, Hongbin

2015-04-01

In this paper, a novel salient object detection method based on modeling the spatial anomalies is presented. The proposed framework is inspired by the biological mechanism that human eyes are sensitive to the unusual and anomalous objects among complex background. It is supposed that a natural image can be seen as a combination of some similar or dissimilar basic patches, and there is a direct relationship between its saliency and anomaly. Some patches share high degree of similarity and have a vast number of quantity. They usually make up the background of an image. On the other hand, some patches present strong rarity and specificity. We name these patches "anomalies". Generally, anomalous patch is a reflection of the edge or some special colors and textures in an image, and these pattern cannot be well "explained" by their surroundings. Human eyes show great interests in these anomalous patterns, and will automatically pick out the anomalous parts of an image as the salient regions. To better evaluate the anomaly degree of the basic patches and exploit their nonlinear statistical characteristics, a multivariate Gaussian distribution saliency evaluation model is proposed. In this way, objects with anomalous patterns usually appear as the outliers in the Gaussian distribution, and we identify these anomalous objects as salient ones. Experiments are conducted on the well-known MSRA saliency detection dataset. Compared with other recent developed visual saliency detection methods, our method suggests significant advantages.

Statistical analysis of ionospheric TEC anomalies before global M w ≥ 7.0 earthquakes using data of CODE GIM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Wenjing; Xu, Liang

2017-07-01

Based on Center of Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) global ionospheric map (GIM) data, a statistical analysis of local total electron content (TEC) anomalies before 121 low-depth ( D ≤ 100 km) strong ( M w ≥ 7.0) earthquakes has been made using the sliding median differential calculation method combining with a new approach of image processing technique. The results show that significant local TEC anomalies could be observed 0-6 days before 80 earthquakes, about 66.1% out of the total. The positive anomalies occur more often than negative ones. For 26 cases, both positive and negative anomalies are observed before the shock. The pre-earthquake TEC anomalies show local time recurrence for 38 earthquakes, which occur around the same local time on different days. The local time distribution of the pre-earthquake TEC anomalies mainly concentrates between 19 and 06 LT, roughly from the sunset to sunrise. Most of the pre-earthquake TEC anomalies do not locate above the epicenter but shift to the south. The pre-earthquake TEC anomalies could be extracted near the magnetic conjugate point of the epicenter for 40 events, which is 50% out of the total 80 cases with significant local TEC anomalies. In general, the signs of the anomalies around epicenter and its conjugate point are the same, but the abnormal magnitude and lasting time are not.

Lg Attenuation Anisotropy Across the Western US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, W. S.; Rowe, C. A.; Stead, R. J.; Begnaud, M. L.

2017-12-01

The USArray has allowed us to map seismic attenuation of local and regional phases to unprecedented spatial extent and resolution. Following standard mantle Pn velocity anisotropy methods, we have incorporated azimuthal anisotropy into our tomographic inversion of high-frequency Lg amplitudes. The Lg is a crustal shear phase made up of many trapped modes, thus results can be considered to be crustal averages. Azimuthal anisotropy reduces residual variance by just over 10% for 1.5-3 Hz Lg. We observe a median anisotropic variation of 12%, and a high of 50% in the Salton Trough. Low attenuation (high-Q) directions run parallel to topographic fabric and major strike slip faults in tectonically active areas, and often run parallel to mantle shear wave splitting directions in stable regions. Tradeoffs are of concern, and synthetic tests show that elongated attenuation anomalies will produce anisotropy artifacts, but of factors 2-3 times lower than observations. In particular, the strength of a long, narrow high-Q anomaly will trade off with high-Q directions parallel to the long axis, while an elongated low-Q anomaly will trade off with high-Q directions perpendicular to the long axis. We observe an elongated low-Q anomaly associated with the Walker Lane; however, observed high-Q directions run parallel to the long axis of this anomaly, opposite to the tradeoff effect, supporting the anisotropic observation, and implying that the effect may be underestimated. Further, we observe an elongated high-Q anomaly associated with the Great Valley and Sierra Nevada that runs across the long axis, again opposite to the tradeoff effect. This study was performed using waveforms, event locations and phase picks made available by IRIS, NEIC and ANF, and processing was done using semi-automated means, thus this is a technique that can be applied quickly to study crustal anisotropy over large areas when appropriate station density is available.

Monitoring Drought at Continental Scales Using Thermal Remote Sensing of Evapotranspiration (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, M. C.; Hain, C.; Mecikalski, J. R.; Kustas, W. P.

2009-12-01

Thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing of land-surface temperature (LST) provides valuable information about the sub-surface moisture status: soil surface temperature increases with decreasing water content, while moisture depletion in the plant root zone leads to stomatal closure, reduced transpiration, and elevated canopy temperatures that can be effectively detected from space. Empirical indices measuring anomalies in LST and vegetation amount (e.g., as quantified by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) have demonstrated utility in monitoring drought conditions over large areas, but may provide ambiguous results when vegetation growth is limited by energy (radiation, air temperature) rather than moisture. A more physically based interpretation of LST and NDVI and their relationship to sub-surface moisture conditions can be obtained with a surface energy balance model driven by TIR remote sensing. In this approach, moisture stress can be quantified in terms of the reduction of evapotranspiration (ET) from the potential rate (PET) expected under non-moisture limiting conditions. The Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model couples a two-source (soil+canopy) land-surface model with an atmospheric boundary layer model in time-differencing mode to routinely and robustly map fluxes across the U.S. continent at 5-10km resolution using thermal band imagery from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). Finer resolution flux maps can be generated through spatial disaggregation using TIR data from polar orbiting instruments such as Landsat (60-120m) and MODIS (1km). A derived Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), given by 1-ET/PET, shows good correspondence with standard drought metrics and with patterns of antecedent precipitation, but can be produced at significantly higher spatial resolution due to limited reliance on ground observations. Because the ESI does not use precipitation data as input, it provides an independent means for assessing standard meteorologically-based drought indicators, and may be more robust in regions with limited monitoring networks. In this study, monthly maps of ESI anomalies for 2000-2008 are compared to standard drought indices and to drought classifications in the U.S. Drought Monitor. The ESI shows better skill in ranking drought severity than do precipitation-based indices composited over comparable time intervals. The thermal remote sensing inputs to ALEXI detect drought conditions even under the dense forest cover along the East Coast of the United States, where microwave soil moisture retrievals typically lose sensitivity. On the other hand, microwave observations are not constrained by cloud cover and provide better temporal continuity, but typically at significantly lower spatial resolution. A merged TIR-microwave moisture anomaly product may have potential for optimizing both spatial and temporal coverage in continental-scale drought monitoring.

Satellite magnetic modeling of north African hot spots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, R. J.; Brown, C. R.

1985-01-01

The primary objectives of the MAGSAT mission was to measure the intensity and direction of magnetization of the Earth's crust. A significant effort was directed to the large crustal anomalies first delineated by the POGO mission. The MAGSAT data are capable of spatial resolution of the crustal field to 250 km wavelength with reliability limits to less than 1 nT in the mean. The difficulties of dealing with less than the most robust of the MAGSAT anomalies is that often there is no more than the magnetic fields themselves to constrain geophysical models of the interior, and no independent means of assessing the quality of the crustal anomaly data in interpreting the subsurface are available.

A Spatial Perspective of Droughts and Pluvials in the Tropics and their Relationships to ENSO in CMIP5 Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez Arango, J. D.; Lintner, B. R.; Lyon, B.

2016-12-01

Although many aspects of the tropical response to ENSO are well-known, the spatial characteristics of the rainfall response to ENSO remain relatively unexplored. Moreover, in current generation climate models, the spatial signatures of the ENSO tropical teleconnection are more uncertain than other aspects of ENSO variability, such as the amplitude of rainfall anomalies. Following the approach of Lyon (2004) and Lyon and Barnston (2005), we analyze here integrated measures of the spatial extent of drought and pluvial conditions in the tropics and their relationship to ENSO in observations as well as simulations of Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with prescribed SST forcing. We compute diagnostics including the model ensemble-means and standard deviations of moderate, intermediate, and severe droughts and pluvials and the lagged correlations with respect to ENSO-based SST indices like NINO3. Overall, in a tropics-wide sense, the models generally capture the areal extent of observed droughts and pluvials and their phasing with respect to ENSO. However, at more local scales, e.g., tropical South America, the simulated metrics agree less strongly with observations, underscoring the role of errors in the spatial patterns of ENSO-induced rainfall anomalies.

Effects of changing temperatures on coral reef health: Implications for management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selig, Elizabeth Rose

Human-induced climate change has already led to substantial changes in a variety of ecosystems. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable to rises in ocean temperature as a result of climate change because they already live near their thermal limits. However, we know little about the spatial patterns of temperature anomalies, areas of greater than usual temperature, which cause coral mortality and increased rates of coral disease. These gaps in knowledge make it difficult to design effective management strategies for mitigating the effects of ocean warming. My dissertation research uses a combination of a new satellite ocean temperature dataset, field surveys on coral health, and data on marine protected area (MPA) boundaries to analyze how ocean temperatures are affecting coral reef health at regional and global scales. I discovered that temperature anomalies are spatially and temporally variable from 1985-2005 even during El Nino events. They are also typically less than 50 km2, smaller than the resolution of many climate models. In addition, I found a strong relationship on the Great Barrier Reef between the number of temperature anomalies and the number of cases of white syndrome, a prevalent coral disease. Results from this study suggest that temperature anomalies are playing a major role in the observed decline of coral reefs over the last 30-40 years. This decline highlights the importance of determining whether MPAs, one of the most common management tools are effective in restoring coral cover. My analyses demonstrated that MPAs can confer some ecosystem resilience through fisheries management and land management practices at regional scales. Coral cover on reefs inside of MPAs did not change over time, while unprotected reefs experienced declines in coral cover. However, MPAs do not moderate the effect of thermal stress on corals or reduce coral decline at rates that can offset losses from thermal stress and other major natural and human-caused disturbances. MPAs are clearly a key tool in the management of fisheries and coral reef health. My dissertation research underscores the need for both MPAs and additional measures aimed at reducing the anthropogenic activities driving climate change.

New constraints on the magmatic system beneath Newberry Volcano from the analysis of active and passive source seismic data, and ambient noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heath, B.; Toomey, D. R.; Hooft, E. E. E.

2014-12-01

Magmatic systems beneath arc-volcanoes are often poorly resolved by seismic imaging due to the small spatial scale and large magnitude of crustal heterogeneity in combination with field experiments that sparsely sample the wavefield. Here we report on our continued analysis of seismic data from a line of densely-spaced (~300 m), three-component seismometers installed on Newberry Volcano in central Oregon for ~3 weeks; the array recorded an explosive shot, ~20 teleseismic events, and ambient noise. By jointly inverting both active and passive-source travel time data, the resulting tomographic image reveals a more detailed view of the presumed rhyolitic magma chamber at ~3-5 km depth, previously imaged by Achauer et al. (1988) and Beachly et al. (2012). The magma chamber is elongated perpendicular to the trend of extensional faulting and encircled by hypocenters of small (M < 2) earthquakes located by PNSN. We also model teleseismic waveforms using a 2-D synthetic seismogram code to recreate anomalous amplitudes observed in the P-wave coda for sites within the caldera. Autocorrelation of ambient noise data also reveals large amplitude waveforms for a small but spatially grouped set of stations, also located within the caldera. On the basis of these noise observations and 2-D synthetic models, which both require slow seismic speeds at depth, we conclude that our tomographic model underestimates low-velocity anomalies associated with the inferred crustal magma chamber; this is due in large part to wavefront healing, which reduces observed travel time anomalies, and regularization constraints, which minimize model perturbations. Only by using various methods that interrogate different aspects of the seismic data are we able to more realistically constrain the complicated, heterogeneous volcanic system. In particular, modeling of waveform characteristics provides a better measure of the spatial scale and magnitude of crustal velocities near magmatic systems.

An Algorithm of Association Rule Mining for Microbial Energy Prospection

PubMed Central

Shaheen, Muhammad; Shahbaz, Muhammad

2017-01-01

The presence of hydrocarbons beneath earth’s surface produces some microbiological anomalies in soils and sediments. The detection of such microbial populations involves pure bio chemical processes which are specialized, expensive and time consuming. This paper proposes a new algorithm of context based association rule mining on non spatial data. The algorithm is a modified form of already developed algorithm which was for spatial database only. The algorithm is applied to mine context based association rules on microbial database to extract interesting and useful associations of microbial attributes with existence of hydrocarbon reserve. The surface and soil manifestations caused by the presence of hydrocarbon oxidizing microbes are selected from existing literature and stored in a shared database. The algorithm is applied on the said database to generate direct and indirect associations among the stored microbial indicators. These associations are then correlated with the probability of hydrocarbon’s existence. The numerical evaluation shows better accuracy for non-spatial data as compared to conventional algorithms at generating reliable and robust rules. PMID:28393846

Apollo experience report: Flight anomaly resolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lobb, J. D.

1975-01-01

The identification of flight anomalies, the determination of their causes, and the approaches taken for corrective action are described. Interrelationships of the broad range of disciplines involved with the complex systems and the team concept employed to ensure timely and accurate resolution of anomalies are discussed. The documentation techniques and the techniques for management of anomaly resolution are included. Examples of specific anomalies are presented in the original form of their progressive documentation. Flight anomaly resolution functioned as a part of the real-time mission support and postflight testing, and results were included in the postflight documentation.

3He and methane in the Gulf of Aden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jean-Baptiste, P.; Belviso, S.; Alaux, G.; Nguyen, B. C.; Mihalopoulos, N.

1990-01-01

During the OCEAT cruise (July, 1987), the vertical and spatial distributions of 3He and methane were measured at six stations over the West Sheba Ridge (Gulf of Aden). The results show significant δ 3He anomalies (up to 49%). We conclude that the origin of this signal is independent from the well-known Red Sea hydrothermal 3He (of Red Sea Brines). Thus, active hydrothermalism occurs in this extensional basin associated with spreading along an incipient mid-ocean ridge. The 3He input from the Gulf of Aden accounts for the S-N positive gradient in 3He concentration observed in the western part of the Indian Ocean. Several methane anomalies are also present (up to 664 nl/l, i.e., 25 times the regional methane background), but the CH 4 and 3He signals are not systematically correlated, suggesting complex production and consumption mechanisms of methane in these areas. Our results confirm previous observations in the South West Pacific Ocean.

Spontaneous symmetry breaking, conformal anomaly and incompressible fluid turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oz, Yaron

2017-11-01

We propose an effective conformal field theory (CFT) description of steady state incompressible fluid turbulence at the inertial range of scales in any number of spatial dimensions. We derive a KPZ-type equation for the anomalous scaling of the longitudinal velocity structure functions and relate the intermittency parameter to the boundary Euler (A-type) conformal anomaly coefficient. The proposed theory consists of a mean field CFT that exhibits Kolmogorov linear scaling (K41 theory) coupled to a dilaton. The dilaton is a Nambu-Goldstone gapless mode that arises from a spontaneous breaking due to the energy flux of the separate scale and time symmetries of the inviscid Navier-Stokes equations to a K41 scaling with a dynamical exponent z=2/3 . The dilaton acts as a random measure that dresses the K41 theory and introduces intermittency. We discuss the two, three and large number of space dimensions cases and how entanglement entropy can be used to characterize the intermittency strength.

The stratospheric QBO signal in the NCEP reanalysis, 1948-2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, P.; Gallego, D.; Pena-Ortiz, C.; Gimeno, L.; Garcia, R.; Hernandez, E.; Calvo, N.

2003-04-01

The spatiotemporal evolution of the zonal wind in the stratosphere is analyzed based on the use of the NCEP reanalysis dataset (1948-2001). MTM-SVD, a frequency-domain analysis method, is applied to isolate significant spatially-coherent variability with narrowband, oscillatory character. A quasibiennial oscillation is detected as the most intense coherent signal in the whole mid and high stratosphere, being the signal less intense in the lower levels, closer to the troposphere. There is a clear downward propagation of the signal with time over low latitudes, from 10 to 100 hPa, that is not evident over mid and high latitudes. A different behavior of the signal is detected over the Northern and the Southern Hemisphere. In the NH an anomaly in the zonal wind field, in phase with the equatorial signal, is detected to run around the whole hemisphere at 60º, and two regions in subtropical latitudes show wind anomalies with their sing opposed to that of the equator. In the SH no signal is detected in extratropical areas.

Assessment of Ionospheric Anomaly Prior to the Large Earthquake: 2D and 3D Analysis in Space and Time for the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hattori, Katsumi; Hirooka, Shinji; Han, Peng

2016-04-01

The ionospheric anomalies possibly associated with large earthquakes have been reported by many researchers. In this paper, Total Electron Content (TEC) and tomography analyses have been applied to investigate the spatial and temporal distributions of ionospheric electron density prior to the 2011 Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku earthquake (Mw9.0). Results show significant TEC enhancements and an interesting three dimensional structure prior to the main shock. As for temporal TEC changes, the TEC value increases 3－4 days before the earthquake remarkably, when the geomagnetic condition was relatively quiet. In addition, the abnormal TEC enhancement area in space was stalled above Japan during the period. Tomographic results show that three dimensional distribution of electron density decreases around 250 km altitude above the epicenter (peak is located just the east-region of the epicenter) and increases the mostly entire region between 300 and 400 km.

The life cycles of persistent anomalies and blocking over the North Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dole, Randall M.

1986-01-01

The evolution of persistent anomaly patterns over the central North Pacific is investigated. Composite time evolution fields of the 500-mbar anomaly patterns are constructed from low-pass and unfiltered height anomaly data; the time scales for the development and decay of these persistent anomalies are analyzed. The relationship between zonal flow in the Pacific jet region and the development of the anomaly patterns is examined. The effect of baroclinic instabilities on the development of the anomalies is studied. The vertical structure and synoptic characteristics of the evolution of the anomalies are described. It is noted that the initial rapid growth of the main center may be associated with a propagating, intensifying, synoptic-scale disturbance which originates in the midlatitudes over eastern Asia.

The Northern Appalachian Anomaly: A modern asthenospheric upwelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menke, William; Skryzalin, Peter; Levin, Vadim; Harper, Thomas; Darbyshire, Fiona; Dong, Ted

2016-10-01

The Northern Appalachian Anomaly (NAA) is an intense, laterally localized (400 km diameter) low-velocity anomaly centered in the asthenosphere beneath southern New England. Its maximum shear velocity contrast, at 200 km depth, is about 10%, and its compressional-to-shear velocity perturbation ratio is about unity, values compatible with it being a modern thermal anomaly. Although centered close to the track of the Great Meteor hot spot, it is not elongated parallel to it and does not crosscut the cratonic margin. In contrast to previous explanations, we argue that the NAA's spatial association with the hot spot track is coincidental and that it is caused by small-scale upwelling associated with an eddy in the asthenospheric flow field at the continental margin. That the NAA is just one of several low-velocity features along the eastern margin of North America suggests that this process may be globally ubiquitous.

Monitoring Global Food Security with New Remote Sensing Products and Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budde, M. E.; Rowland, J.; Senay, G. B.; Funk, C. C.; Husak, G. J.; Magadzire, T.; Verdin, J. P.

2012-12-01

Global agriculture monitoring is a crucial aspect of monitoring food security in the developing world. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has a long history of using remote sensing and crop modeling to address food security threats in the form of drought, floods, pests, and climate change. In recent years, it has become apparent that FEWS NET requires the ability to apply monitoring and modeling frameworks at a global scale to assess potential impacts of foreign production and markets on food security at regional, national, and local levels. Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center and the University of California Santa Barbara (UCSB) Climate Hazards Group have provided new and improved data products as well as visualization and analysis tools in support of the increased mandate for remote monitoring. We present our monitoring products for measuring actual evapotranspiration (ETa), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in a near-real-time mode, and satellite-based rainfall estimates and derivatives. USGS FEWS NET has implemented a Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) model to produce operational ETa anomalies for Africa and Central Asia. During the growing season, ETa anomalies express surplus or deficit crop water use, which is directly related to crop condition and biomass. We present current operational products and provide supporting validation of the SSEB model. The expedited Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (eMODIS) production system provides FEWS NET with an improved NDVI dataset for crop and rangeland monitoring. eMODIS NDVI provides a reliable data stream with a relatively high spatial resolution (250-m) and short latency period (less than 12 hours) which allows for better operational vegetation monitoring. We provide an overview of these data and cite specific applications for crop monitoring. FEWS NET uses satellite rainfall estimates as inputs for monitoring agricultural food production and driving crop water balance models. We present a series of derived rainfall products and provide an update on efforts to improve satellite-based estimates. We also present advancements in monitoring tools, namely, the Early Warning eXplorer (EWX) and interactive rainfall and NDVI time series viewers. The EWX is a data analysis and visualization tool that allows users to rapidly visualize multiple remote sensing datasets and compare standardized anomaly maps and time series. The interactive time series viewers allow users to analyze rainfall and NDVI time series over multiple spatial domains. New and improved data products and more targeted analysis tools are a necessity as food security monitoring requirements expand and resources become limited.

Modelling extreme dry spells in the Mediterranean region in connection with atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramblay, Yves; Hertig, Elke

2018-04-01

Long droughts periods can affect the Mediterranean region during the winter season, when most of annual precipitation occurs, and consequently have strong impacts on agriculture, groundwater levels and water resources. The goal of this study is to model annual maximum dry spells lengths (AMDSL) that occur during the extended winter season (October to April). The spatial patterns of extreme dry spells and their relationships with large-scale atmospheric circulation were first investigated. Then, AMDSL were modelled using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions incorporating climatic covariates, to evaluate the dependences of extreme dry spells to synoptic patterns using an analogue approach. The data from a network of 160 rain gauges having daily precipitation measurements between 1960 and 2009 are considered together with the ERA-20C reanalysis of the 20th century to provide atmospheric variables (geopotential heights, humidity, winds). A regional classification of both the occurrence and the duration of AMDSL helped to distinguish three spatially contiguous regions in which the regional distributions were found homogeneous. From composite analysis, significant positive anomalies in geopotential height (Z500) and negative anomalies in zonal wind (U850) and relative and specific humidity (S850, R850) were found to be associated with AMDSL in the three regions and provided the reference to build analogue days. Finally, non-stationary GEV models have been compared, in which the location and scale parameters are related to different atmospheric indices. Results indicates, at the whole Mediterranean scale, that positives anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index and to a lesser extent the Mediterranean Oscillation index are linked to longer extreme dry spells in the majority of stations. For the three regions identified, the frequency of U850 negative anomalies over North Africa is significantly associated with the magnitude of AMDSL. AMDL are also associated with the frequency of S850 negative anomalies for the southeastern region, and with positive Z500 anomalies for the Western and North-eastern Mediterranean regions.

Multi-Timescale Analysis of the Spatial Representativeness of In Situ Soil Moisture Data within Satellite Footprints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molero, B.; Leroux, D. J.; Richaume, P.; Kerr, Y. H.; Merlin, O.; Cosh, M. H.; Bindlish, R.

2018-01-01

We conduct a novel comprehensive investigation that seeks to prove the connection between spatial scales and timescales in surface soil moisture (SM) within the satellite footprint ( 50 km). Modeled and measured point series at Yanco and Little Washita in situ networks are first decomposed into anomalies at timescales ranging from 0.5 to 128 days, using wavelet transforms. Then, their degree of spatial representativeness is evaluated on a per-timescale basis by comparison to large spatial scale data sets (the in situ spatial average, SMOS, AMSR2, and ECMWF). Four methods are used for this: temporal stability analysis (TStab), triple collocation (TC), percentage of correlated areas (CArea), and a new proposed approach that uses wavelet-based correlations (WCor). We found that the mean of the spatial representativeness values tends to increase with the timescale but so does their dispersion. Locations exhibit poor spatial representativeness at scales below 4 days, while either very good or poor representativeness at seasonal scales. Regarding the methods, TStab cannot be applied to the anomaly series due to their multiple zero-crossings, and TC is suitable for week and month scales but not for other scales where data set cross-correlations are found low. In contrast, WCor and CArea give consistent results at all timescales. WCor is less sensitive to the spatial sampling density, so it is a robust method that can be applied to sparse networks (one station per footprint). These results are promising to improve the validation and downscaling of satellite SM series and the optimization of SM networks.

Surface Wave Tomography with Spatially Varying Smoothing Based on Continuous Model Regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Chuanming; Yao, Huajian

2017-03-01

Surface wave tomography based on continuous regionalization of model parameters is widely used to invert for 2-D phase or group velocity maps. An inevitable problem is that the distribution of ray paths is far from homogeneous due to the spatially uneven distribution of stations and seismic events, which often affects the spatial resolution of the tomographic model. We present an improved tomographic method with a spatially varying smoothing scheme that is based on the continuous regionalization approach. The smoothness of the inverted model is constrained by the Gaussian a priori model covariance function with spatially varying correlation lengths based on ray path density. In addition, a two-step inversion procedure is used to suppress the effects of data outliers on tomographic models. Both synthetic and real data are used to evaluate this newly developed tomographic algorithm. In the synthetic tests, when the contrived model has different scales of anomalies but with uneven ray path distribution, we compare the performance of our spatially varying smoothing method with the traditional inversion method, and show that the new method is capable of improving the recovery in regions of dense ray sampling. For real data applications, the resulting phase velocity maps of Rayleigh waves in SE Tibet produced using the spatially varying smoothing method show similar features to the results with the traditional method. However, the new results contain more detailed structures and appears to better resolve the amplitude of anomalies. From both synthetic and real data tests we demonstrate that our new approach is useful to achieve spatially varying resolution when used in regions with heterogeneous ray path distribution.

A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies: application to regional drought processes in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhenchen; Lu, Guihua; He, Hai; Wu, Zhiyong; He, Jian

2018-01-01

Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for water resource managers to develop and implement drought mitigation measures. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatial-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we developed a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies (SAs). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is first applied to drought-related SAs at 200 and 500 hPa geopotential height (HGT) and sea surface temperature (SST). Subsequently, SA-based predictors are built based on the spatial pattern of the first EOF modes. This drought prediction model is essentially the synchronous statistical relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric-oceanic SA-based predictors and SPI3 (3-month standardized precipitation index), calibrated using a simple stepwise regression method. Predictor computation is based on forecast atmospheric-oceanic products retrieved from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), indicating the lead time of the model depends on that of CFSv2. The model can make seamless drought predictions for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Model application to four recent severe regional drought processes in China indicates its good performance in predicting seasonal drought development, despite its weakness in predicting drought severity. Overall, the model can be a worthy reference for seasonal water resource management in China.

Interpretation of Variations in Modis-Measured Greenness Levels of Amazon Forests During 2000 to 2009

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Samanta, Arindam; Ganguly, Sangram; Vermote, Eric; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.; Myneni, Ranga B.

2012-01-01

This work investigates variations in satellite-measured greenness of Amazon forests using ten years of NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data. Corruption of optical remote sensing data with clouds and aerosols is prevalent in this region; filtering corrupted data causes spatial sampling constraints, as well as reducing the record length, which introduces large biases in estimates of greenness anomalies. The EVI data, analyzed in multiple ways and taking into account EVI accuracy, consistently show a pattern of negligible changes in the greenness levels of forests both in the area affected by drought in 2005 and outside it. Small random patches of anomalous greening and browning-especially prominent in 2009-appear in all ten years, irrespective of contemporaneous variations in precipitation, but with no persistence over time. The fact that over 90% of the EVI anomalies are insignificantly small-within the envelope of error (95% confidence interval) in EVI-warrants cautious interpretation of these results: there were no changes in the greenness of these forests, or if there were changes, the EVI data failed to capture these either because the constituent reflectances were saturated or the moderate resolution precluded viewing small-scale variations. This suggests a need for more accurate and spatially resolved synoptic views from satellite data and corroborating comprehensive ground sampling to understand the greenness dynamics of these forests.

First high-resolution near-seafloor survey of magnetic anomalies of the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, J.; Xu, X.; Li, C.; Sun, Z.; Zhu, J.; Zhou, Z.; Qiu, N.

2013-12-01

We successfully conducted the first high-resolution near-seafloor magnetic survey of the Central, Southwest, and Northern Central Basins of the South China Sea (SCS) during two cruises on board Chinese R/V HaiYangLiuHao in October-November 2012 and March-April 2013, respectively. Measurements of magnetic field were made along four long survey lines, including (1) a NW-SE across-isochron profile transecting the Southwest Basin and covering all ages of the oceanic crust (Line CD); (2) a N-S across-isochron profile transecting the Central Basin (Line AB); and (3) two sub-parallel NE-SW across-isochron profiles transecting the Northern Central Basin of the SCS (Lines D and E). A three-axis magnetometer was mounted on a deep-tow vehicle, flying within 0.6 km above the seafloor. The position of the tow vehicle was provided by an ultra-short baseline navigation system along Lines D and E, while was estimated using shipboard GPS along Lines AB and CD. To investigate crustal magnetization, we first removed the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) of 2010 from the measured magnetic data, and then downward continued the resultant magnetic field data to a horizontal plane at a water depth of 4.5 km to correct for variation due to the fishing depth of the deep-tow vehicle. Finally, we calculated magnetic anomalies at various water depths after reduction-to-the-pole corrections. We also constructed polarity reversal block (PRB) models of crustal magnetization by matching peaks and troughs of the observed magnetic field anomaly. Our analysis yielded the following results: (1) The near-bottom magnetic anomaly showed peak-to-trough amplitudes of more than 2,500 nT, which are several times of the anomaly amplitudes at the sea surface, illustrating that deep-tow measurements acquired much higher spatial resolutions. (2) The deep-tow data revealed several distinctive magnetic anomalies with wavelengths of 5-15 km and amplitudes of several hundred nT. These short-wavelength anomalies were unrecognized in sea surface measurements. (3) Preliminary results showed that the study regions might have experienced several episodes of magnetic reversal events that were not recognized in existing models. (4) We are currently investigating the geomagnetic timing of these relatively short-duration events to determine the detailed spreading history of the sub-basins of the SCS. These high-resolution near-seafloor magnetic survey lines are located close to the planned drilling sites of IODP Expedition 349 scheduled for January-March 2014.

Dynamics and spatial structure of ENSO from re-analyses versus CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serykh, Ilya; Sonechkin, Dmitry

2016-04-01

Basing on a mathematical idea about the so-called strange nonchaotic attractor (SNA) in the quasi-periodically forced dynamical systems, the currently available re-analyses data are considered. It is found that the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is driven not only by the seasonal heating, but also by three more external periodicities (incommensurate to the annual period) associated with the ~18.6-year lunar-solar nutation of the Earth rotation axis, ~11-year sunspot activity cycle and the ~14-month Chandler wobble in the Earth's pole motion. Because of the incommensurability of their periods all four forces affect the system in inappropriate time moments. As a result, the ENSO time series look to be very complex (strange in mathematical terms) but nonchaotic. The power spectra of ENSO indices reveal numerous peaks located at the periods that are multiples of the above periodicities as well as at their sub- and super-harmonic. In spite of the above ENSO complexity, a mutual order seems to be inherent to the ENSO time series and their spectra. This order reveals itself in the existence of a scaling of the power spectrum peaks and respective rhythms in the ENSO dynamics that look like the power spectrum and dynamics of the SNA. It means there are no limits to forecast ENSO, in principle. In practice, it opens a possibility to forecast ENSO for several years ahead. Global spatial structures of anomalies during El Niño and power spectra of ENSO indices from re-analyses are compared with the respective output quantities in the CMIP5 climate models (the Historical experiment). It is found that the models reproduce global spatial structures of the near surface temperature and sea level pressure anomalies during El Niño very similar to these fields in the re-analyses considered. But the power spectra of the ENSO indices from the CMIP5 models show no peaks at the same periods as the re-analyses power spectra. We suppose that it is possible to improve modeled rhythms if the afore-mentioned external periodicities are taken in an explicit consideration in the models.

Spatial distribution of random velocity inhomogeneities in the western part of Nankai subduction zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, T.; Obana, K.; Yamamoto, Y.; Nakanishi, A.; Kodaira, S.; Kaneda, Y.

2011-12-01

In the Nankai trough, there are three seismogenic zones of megathrust earthquakes (Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes). Lithospheric structures in and around these seismogenic zones are important for the studies on mutual interactions and synchronization of their fault ruptures. Recent studies on seismic wave scattering at high frequencies (>1Hz) make it possible to estimate 3D distributions of random inhomogeneities (or scattering coefficient) in the lithosphere, and clarified that random inhomogeneity is one of the important medium properties related to microseismicity and damaged structure near the fault zone [Asano & Hasegawa, 2004; Takahashi et al. 2009]. This study estimates the spatial distribution of the power spectral density function (PSDF) of random inhomogeneities the western part of Nankai subduction zone, and examines the relations with crustal velocity structure and seismic activity. Seismic waveform data used in this study are those recorded at seismic stations of Hi-net & F-net operated by NIED, and 160 ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs) deployed at Hyuga-nada region from Dec. 2008 to Jan. 2009. This OBS observation was conducted by JAMSTEC as a part of "Research concerning Interaction Between the Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai Earthquakes" funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan. Spatial distribution of random inhomogeneities is estimated by the inversion analysis of the peak delay time of small earthquakes [Takahashi et al. 2009], where the peak delay time is defined as the time lag from the S-wave onset to its maximal amplitude arrival. We assumed the von Karman type functional form for the PSDF. Peak delay times are measured from root mean squared envelopes at 4-8Hz, 8-16Hz and 16-32Hz. Inversion result can be summarized as follows. Random inhomogeneities beneath the Quaternary volcanoes are characterized by strong inhomogeneities at small spatial scale (~ a few hundreds meter) and weak spectral gradient. Those in the Hyuga-nada region are characterized by the strong inhomogeneities at large spatial wavelength and steep spectral gradient. Random inhomogeneities in the Hyuga-nada region are similar with those in the frontal arc high in northern Izu-Bonin arc, which is thought to be a remnant arc that is presently inactive [Takahashi et al. 2011]. This coincidence implies the existence of subducted Kyushu-Palau ridge in this anomaly of random inhomogeneities, which is also suggested by the seismic refraction survey in this region [Nakanishi et al. 2010 AGU Fall Mtg.]. Source rupture areas of large earthquakes (M>6) in Hyuga-nada regions tend to locate around this anomaly of inhomogeneities. We may say that this anomalously inhomogeneous region is a structural factor affecting the seismic activity in Hyuga-nada region.

Interannual variation of the surface temperature of tropical forests from satellite observations

DOE PAGES

Gao, Huilin; Zhang, Shuai; Fu, Rong; ...

2016-01-01

Land surface temperatures (LSTs) within tropical forests contribute to climate variations. However, observational data are very limited in such regions. This study used passive microwave remote sensing data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS), providing observations under all weather conditions, to investigate the LST over the Amazon and Congo rainforests. The SSM/I and SSMIS data were collected from 1996 to 2012. The morning and afternoon observations from passive microwave remote sensing facilitate the investigation of the interannual changes of LST anomalies on a diurnal basis. As a result of the variability ofmore » cloud cover and the corresponding reduction of solar radiation, the afternoon LST anomalies tend to vary more than the morning LST anomalies. The dominant spatial and temporal patterns for interseasonal variations of the LST anomalies over the tropical rainforest were analyzed. The impacts of droughts and El Niños on this LST were also investigated. Lastly, the differences between early morning and late afternoon LST anomalies were identified by the remote sensing product, with the morning LST anomalies controlled by humidity (according to comparisons with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data).« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Huilin; Zhang, Shuai; Fu, Rong

Land surface temperatures (LSTs) within tropical forests contribute to climate variations. However, observational data are very limited in such regions. This study used passive microwave remote sensing data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS), providing observations under all weather conditions, to investigate the LST over the Amazon and Congo rainforests. The SSM/I and SSMIS data were collected from 1996 to 2012. The morning and afternoon observations from passive microwave remote sensing facilitate the investigation of the interannual changes of LST anomalies on a diurnal basis. As a result of the variability ofmore » cloud cover and the corresponding reduction of solar radiation, the afternoon LST anomalies tend to vary more than the morning LST anomalies. The dominant spatial and temporal patterns for interseasonal variations of the LST anomalies over the tropical rainforest were analyzed. The impacts of droughts and El Niños on this LST were also investigated. Lastly, the differences between early morning and late afternoon LST anomalies were identified by the remote sensing product, with the morning LST anomalies controlled by humidity (according to comparisons with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data).« less

Space-borne Chlorophyll Fluorescence, Greenness, Vegetation Models and Interannual Variability of Photosynthetic Activity: Spatio-temporal Patterns, Mechanisms, and Environmental Sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walther, S.; Guanter, L.; Jung, M.; Frankenberg, C.; Sun, Y.; Forkel, M.; Zhang, Y.; Duveiller, G.; Cescatti, A.; Camps-Valls, G.; Köhler, P.

2016-12-01

It is much debated whether respiration or photosynthesis drive net ecosystem productivity andwhich regions contribute strongest to the observed interannual variability (IAV) of the strengthof the land sink. Several studies point to photosynthetic productivity in semi-arid regions as avery important factor influencing atmospheric CO2 variability globally (e.g. Jung et al., 2011;Poulter et al., 2014; Ahlstr ̈ om et al., 2015). Here, we aim at a comprehensive comparison ofthe strength, timing and spatial extent of anomalies of photosynthesis as they are indicated bysatellite observations of greenness, vegetation optical depth, and sun-induced chlorophyll fluo-rescence (SIF). We will compare them to the results of diagnostic, empirical and process-basedvegetation models. Except for the evergreen tropics, the spatio-temporal patterns of monthlydominant vegetation variability are generally consistently shown in semi-arid areas, albeit withdiffering magnitudes between greenness and photosynthesis globally. Relative anomalies (to themean seasonal cycle) are particularly widespread in high northern latitudes. Further researchsteps will include i) the repeated analysis at higher temporal resolution to better refine the dif-ferent time scales of reaction between light-use-efficiency and APAR and between forestedand non-forested ecosystems, ii) investigate on characteristic time scales at which the proxies(dis-)agree and why, iii) study the relative contributions of anomalies in peak and length of thegrowing season to IAV (similar to Xia et al., 2015; Zhou et al., 2016), iv) analyse the proxiesfor possibly differing hydrological sensitivities, and v) vegetation models have long been knownto have very diverse abilities to capture GPP IAV. Our preliminary results confirm this and wewill further study possible limitations and possible ways for improvement of the simulations.

Interannual lake level fluctuations (1993 1999) in Africa from Topex/Poseidon: connections with ocean atmosphere interactions over the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercier, Franck; Cazenave, Anny; Maheu, Caroline

2002-04-01

Water level fluctuations of continental lakes are related to regional to global scale climate changes. Water level fluctuations reflect variations in evaporation and precipitation over the lake area and its catchment area. Over such inland water bodies, the satellite altimetry technique offers both a world-wide coverage and a satisfying accuracy. We present here results of lake level variations of 12 African lakes based on 7 years of Topex/Poseidon (T/P) altimetry data acquired between 1993 and 1999. Among the 12 African lakes presented in this study, three are reservoirs whose level fluctuations are mainly driven by anthropogenic usage of the water. Either closed or open, the nine remaining lakes are sensitive indicators of the climate evolution over Africa during the 1990s. Seasonal signals of each lake are clearly identified and filtered out to focus on the interannual fluctuations. Clear correlated regional variations are reported among the east African lakes: several lakes exhibit a regular level decrease between 1993 and 1997, probably due to intense droughts. However, the most spectacular feature is an abrupt water level rise occurring in late 1997-early 1998 and affecting most of the lakes located within the Rift Valley. This major anomalous pattern, explained by a large excess rainfall anomaly occurring in late 1997, is quantified in both space and time domains through an EOF analysis of the lake level height time series. The spatial distribution of the leading mode of lake level height correlates with the dominant mode of precipitation computed over the same time span. Nevertheless, similar rainfall anomaly, but with lesser intensity, occurred in late 1994 without any noticeable consequence on lake level. The precipitation anomaly appears related to the equatorial Indian Ocean warming reported during the 1997-1998 ENSO event.

Toward Continuous GPS Carrier-Phase Time Transfer: Eliminating the Time Discontinuity at an Anomaly

PubMed Central

Yao, Jian; Levine, Judah; Weiss, Marc

2015-01-01

The wide application of Global Positioning System (GPS) carrier-phase (CP) time transfer is limited by the problem of boundary discontinuity (BD). The discontinuity has two categories. One is “day boundary discontinuity,” which has been studied extensively and can be solved by multiple methods [1–8]. The other category of discontinuity, called “anomaly boundary discontinuity (anomaly-BD),” comes from a GPS data anomaly. The anomaly can be a data gap (i.e., missing data), a GPS measurement error (i.e., bad data), or a cycle slip. Initial study of the anomaly-BD shows that we can fix the discontinuity if the anomaly lasts no more than 20 min, using the polynomial curve-fitting strategy to repair the anomaly [9]. However, sometimes, the data anomaly lasts longer than 20 min. Thus, a better curve-fitting strategy is in need. Besides, a cycle slip, as another type of data anomaly, can occur and lead to an anomaly-BD. To solve these problems, this paper proposes a new strategy, i.e., the satellite-clock-aided curve fitting strategy with the function of cycle slip detection. Basically, this new strategy applies the satellite clock correction to the GPS data. After that, we do the polynomial curve fitting for the code and phase data, as before. Our study shows that the phase-data residual is only ~3 mm for all GPS satellites. The new strategy also detects and finds the number of cycle slips by searching the minimum curve-fitting residual. Extensive examples show that this new strategy enables us to repair up to a 40-min GPS data anomaly, regardless of whether the anomaly is due to a data gap, a cycle slip, or a combination of the two. We also find that interference of the GPS signal, known as “jamming”, can possibly lead to a time-transfer error, and that this new strategy can compensate for jamming outages. Thus, the new strategy can eliminate the impact of jamming on time transfer. As a whole, we greatly improve the robustness of the GPS CP time transfer. PMID:26958451

A New Instrument for Magnetic Imaging of Rock Slabs at the Hand-Sample Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, L. L.; Webber, J. R.; Williams, M. L.; Sweeney, J.

2015-12-01

Magnetic imaging techniques have provided a wealth of detailed information typically at two disparate spatial scales including the regional (e.g. satellite, airborne, and marine) and grain scales (e.g. Bitter colloid and magnetic force microscopy). However, there is a general lack of imaging techniques at the hand sample scale. We present a new instrument, procedure, and processing routine that automatically maps the magnetic flux density vector field above a slab of rock at a sub-millimeter resolution, which bridges the gap between the traditional magnetic mapping scales. This low-cost instrument consists of two linear axes that position and raster a stylus across the surface of a sample. Attached to the stylus is a MAG3110 triple axis magnetometer, which has an optimal spatial resolution of approximately 1 mm2. This technique has been particularly informative for metamorphic studies concerning the equilibria of ferrimagnetic minerals such as magnetite. For example, magnetic images have revealed complex anomalies within mafic granulites that indicate the heterogeneous production and removal of magnetite. Some mafic dikes display magnetic anomalies that are associated with partial retrograde metamorphism and hydration. Magnetic images of a sample of banded iron formation have documented sedimentary layering, as well as positive anomalies associated with the occurrence of leucosome. This association may provide key implications for anatectic redox reactions. Specimens extracted from various locations on slabs characterized by heterogeneous magnetic anomalies can be used to document disparate magnetic properties such as magnetic susceptibility, NRM, hysteresis, and coercivity distributions. As such, this technique may provide a context for targeted rock magnetic studies. The instrument provides a direct link for petrologic studies to magnetism that may be used as a small scale analog for regional and planetary magnetic anomalies.

Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon: VARIABILITY OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND EXTREME EVENT IN EAST CHINA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Lei; Qian, Yun; Zhang, Yaocun

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979-2012. A high-quality daily precipitation dataset covering 2287 weather stations in China is analyzed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions, three sub-periods of 1979-1992 (period I), 1993-1999 (period II) and 2000-2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation,more » the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport that contributes most to the precipitation anomalies. Lastly, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean that influences deep convection over the oceans.« less

Comparison of Forced ENSO-Like Hydrological Expressions in Simulations of the Preindustrial and Mid-Holocene

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, Sophie C.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Kelley, Maxwell

2014-01-01

Using the water isotope- and vapor source distribution (VSD) tracer-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R, we examine changing El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like expressions in the hydrological cycle in a suite of model experiments. We apply strong surface temperature anomalies associated with composite observed El Nino and La Nina events as surface boundary conditions to preindustrial and mid-Holocene model experiments in order to investigate ENSO-like expressions in the hydrological cycle under varying boundary conditions. We find distinct simulated hydrological anomalies associated with El Nino-like ("ENSOWARM") and La Nina-like ("ENSOCOOL") conditions, and the region-specific VSD tracers show hydrological differences across the Pacific basin between El Nino-like and La Nina-like events. The application of ENSOCOOL forcings does not produce climatological anomalies that represent the equal but opposite impacts of the ENSOWARM experiment, as the isotopic anomalies associated with ENSOWARM conditions are generally stronger than with ENSOCOOL and the spatial patterns of change distinct. Also, when the same ENSO-like surface temperature anomalies are imposed on the mid-Holocene, the hydrological response is muted, relative to the preindustrial. Mid-Holocene changes in moisture sources to the analyzed regions across the Pacific reveal potentially complex relationships between ENSO-like conditions and boundary conditions. Given the complex impacts of ENSO-like conditions on various aspects of the hydrological cycle, we suggest that proxy record insights into paleo-ENSO variability are most likely to be robust when synthesized from a network of many spatially diverse archives, which can account for the potential nonstationarity of ENSO teleconnections under different boundary conditions.

Mean wind speed persistence over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Lei

2018-07-01

The wind speed persistence is an important factor in the assessment of wind energy potential. In this paper, we explore the persistence of Mean Wind Speed (MWS) with many years of record using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) over China. The results illustrate that there exist irregular high-frequency fluctuations for daily MWS anomaly records. Long-term persistence of MWS is found for all meteorological observed sites. We also make some numerical tests in order to verify the significance of long-term persistence by shuffling the data records many times. These facts prove that the MWS anomaly records have long-term persistence over all the stations in China. The mean value 0.64 in DFA-exponents for all stations over China is also obviously higher than the value 0.53 according to interval threshold of 95% confidence level after shuffling the MWS records many times. In addition, the values of scaling exponent vary from station to station over China. Long-term persistence of MWS in spatial distributions seems to be downward trends from east to west China. Many factors may affect long-term persistence of MWS such as southwest monsoon, Tibetan Plateau landform and atmosphere-ocean-land interaction and so on. Possible physical mechanism need further analysis in the future.

Monitoring of vegetation condition using the NDVI/ENSO anomalies in Central Asia and their relationships with ONI (very strong) phases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aralova, Dildora; Toderich, Kristina; Jarihani, Ben; Gafurov, Dilshod; Gismatulina, Liliya

2016-10-01

An investigation of temporal dynamics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and spatial patterns of dryness/wetness period over arid and semi-arid zones of Central Asia and their relationship with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values (1982-2011) have explored in this article. For identifying periodical oscillations and their relationship with NDVI values have selected El Nino 3.4 index and thirty years of new generation bi-weekly NDVI 3g acquired by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellites time-series data. Based on identification ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) is a very strong El Nino (warm) anomalies observed during 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and very strong La Nino (cool) period events have observed 1988-1989 years. For correlation these two factors and seeking positive and negative trends it has extracted from NDVI time series data as "low productivity period" following years: 1982-1983, 1997 -1998; and as "high productivity period" following years: 1988 -1989. Linear regression observed warm events as moderate phase period selected between moderate El Nino (ME) and NDVI with following periods:1986-1987; 1987-1988; 1991-1992; 2002-2003; 2009-2010; and moderate La Niña (ML) periods and NDVI (1998-1999; 1999-2000; 2007-2008) which has investigated a spatial patterns of wetness conditions. The results indicated that an inverse relationship between very strong El Nino and NDVI, decreased vegetation response with larger positive ONI value; and direct relationship between very strong La Niña and NDVI, increased vegetation response with smaller negative ONI value. Results assumed that significant impact of these anomalies influenced on vegetation productivity. These results will be a beneficial for efficient rangeland/grassland management and to propose drought periods for assessment and reducing quantity of flocks' due to a lack of fodder biomass for surviving livestock flocks on upcoming years in rangelands. Also results demonstrate that a non-anthropogenic drivers of variability effected to land surface vegetation signals, understanding of which will be beneficial for efficient rangeland and agriculture management and establish ecosystem services in precipitation-driven drylands of Central Asia.

ENSO related variability in the Southern Hemisphere, 1948-2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, Pedro; Mann, Michael E.

2003-01-01

The spatiotemporal evolution of Southern Hemisphere climate variability is diagnosed based on the use of the NCEP reanalysis (1948-2000) dataset. Using the MTM-SVD analysis method, significant narrowband variability is isolated from the multi-variate dataset. It is found that the ENSO signal exhibits statistically significant behavior at quasiquadrennial (3-6 yr) timescales for the full time-period. A significant quasibiennial (2-3 yr) timescales emerges only for the latter half of period. Analyses of the spatial evolution of the two reconstructed signals shed additional light on linkages between low and high-latitude Southern Hemisphere climate anomalies.

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: El Niño Southern Oscillation

Science.gov Websites

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation Time longitude section of Anomalous OLR 850 hecto Temperatures anomalies Time series of weekly sea surface temperatures anomalies for the 4 Niño regions Time (OLR) Pentad mean and anomalous OLR Time-longitude section of anomalous OLR 850-hPa Zonal Wind Time

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burbank, D.W.; Whistler, D.P.

Examination of declination anomalies within a well-controlled chronologic framework can permit precise delineation of the progression of a tectonic rotation. In the past, declination anomalies from numerous spatially separated and individually dated localities have been synthesized in order to define regional, progressive rotations. Rarely, however, have magnetostratigraphic data from a single locality been used successfully to chronicle a sequential rotation that resulted from movement along a nearby fault. Magnetostratigraphic studies from the El Paso basin in southern California reveal progressively smaller amounts of counterclockwise rotation for strata dated between 11 and 7 Ma. Two tests indicate that this is amore » temporally controlled, rather than a spatially controlled, rotation. This rotation is interpreted to have resulted from sinistral shear along the Garlock fault. As such, it appears to delimit the initiation of Miocene movement along the western segment of this major strike-slip fault.« less

Evidence of Urban Precipitation Anomalies from Satellite and Ground-Based Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, M.; Negri, Andrew

2004-01-01

Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world's population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters weather and climate processes. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-weather-climate system is incomplete. Recent literature continues to provide evidence that anomalies in precipitation exist over and downwind of major cities. Current and future research efforts are actively seeking to verify these literature findings and understand potential cause-effect relationships. The novelty of this study is that it utilizes rainfall data from multiple satellite data sources (e.g. TRMM precipitation radar, TRMM-geosynchronous-rain gauge merged product, and SSM/I) and ground-based measurements to identify spatial anomalies and temporal trends in precipitation for cities around the world. Early results will be presented and placed within the context of weather prediction, climate assessment, and societal applications.

Evidence of Urban Precipitation Anomalies from Satellite and Ground-Based Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. M.; Manyin, M.; Negri, A.

2004-01-01

Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world s population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025,60% of the world s population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters weather and climate processes. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-weather-climate system is incomplete. Recent literature continues to provide evidence that anomalies in precipitation exist over and downwind of major cities. Current and future research efforts are actively seeking to verify these literature findings and understand potential cause- effect relationships. The novelty of this study is that it utilizes rainfall data from multiple satellite data sources (e.g. TRMM precipitation radar, TRMM-geosynchronous-rain gauge merged product, and SSM/I) and ground-based measurements to identify spatial anomalies and temporal trends in precipitation for cities around the world. Early results will be presented and placed within the context of weather prediction, climate assessment, and societal applications.

The Schwinger Model on S 1: Hamiltonian Formulation, Vacuum and Anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stuart, David

2014-12-01

We present a Hamiltonian formulation of the Schwinger model with spatial domain taken to be the circle. It is shown that, in Coulomb gauge, the Hamiltonian is a semi-bounded, self-adjoint operator which is invariant under the group of large gauge transformations. There is a nontrivial action of on fermionic Fock space and its vacuum. This action plays a role analogous to that played by the spectral flow in the infinite Dirac sea formalism. The formulation allows (1) a description of the anomaly and its relation to the group action, and (2) an explicit identification of the vacuum. The anomaly in the chiral conservation law appears as a consequence of insisting upon semi-boundedness and gauge invariance of the quantized Hamiltonian.

Robust and efficient anomaly detection using heterogeneous representations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xing; Hu, Shiqiang; Xie, Jinhua; Zheng, Shiyou

2015-05-01

Various approaches have been proposed for video anomaly detection. Yet these approaches typically suffer from one or more limitations: they often characterize the pattern using its internal information, but ignore its external relationship which is important for local anomaly detection. Moreover, the high-dimensionality and the lack of robustness of pattern representation may lead to problems, including overfitting, increased computational cost and memory requirements, and high false alarm rate. We propose a video anomaly detection framework which relies on a heterogeneous representation to account for both the pattern's internal information and external relationship. The internal information is characterized by slow features learned by slow feature analysis from low-level representations, and the external relationship is characterized by the spatial contextual distances. The heterogeneous representation is compact, robust, efficient, and discriminative for anomaly detection. Moreover, both the pattern's internal information and external relationship can be taken into account in the proposed framework. Extensive experiments demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of our approach by comparison with the state-of-the-art approaches on the widely used benchmark datasets.

Spatial Analysis of Gravity Data in the California, Nevada, and Utah (US)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferani, NA; Hartantyo, E.; Niasari, SW

2018-04-01

The geological condition of western North America is very complex because of the encounter of three major plates namely North America, Juan de Fuca, and Pacific Plate. The process of Juan de Fuca subduction and Pacific transform against North America plate created many mountains and produced Great Basin that we can see extending across California, Nevada, and Utah. The varied natural condition causes the varied value of gravity anomaly distribution. Using Topex free-air anomaly analyzed with second vertical derivative (SVD), we can analyze the fracture structures that occur in the Great Basin. The results show that the maximal SVD anomaly value is higher than the minimal SVD anomaly value at the western and eastern border of Great Basin. This explains that the two of Great Basin border are normal faults with trend direction NW-SE in the western boundary and NE-SW trending in the eastern boundary. This research result corresponds with the high seismicity data along the fault. Through this research, we can know that topex free-air anomaly data can be used to determine the type and trend of fault on a regional scale.

Long time series analysis of ionospheric TEC disturbance over seismically region in southwest China during low solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xiangxiang; Yu, Tao; Shan, Xinjian; Liu, Zhan; Wang, Zhenjie

2016-04-01

Recently, there are growing interests in studying the seismo-ionospheric disturbance prior to earthquakes, mainly including the anomalies in the electric field, magnetic field and plasma parameters. However, there are still some controversies over this topic, mainly because of strong day-to-day variability of the ionosphere itself. It is hard to determine whether the different forms of ionospheric disturbances are associated with earthquakes or not. Using data of Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONC) and IGS (International GNSS Service), we attempt to give a statistical investigation about the total electron content (TEC) perturbation before 30 Mw6.0+ earthquakes during January 2000 to December 2010 in China. To determine the abnormal TEC signals, a quartile-based process is performed. At each time point we calculated the median M using the TEC values at the same local time for the preceding 15 days. In addition, we calculated the maps of differential TEC from global ionosphere maps (GIM) in the above period. It is shown that TEC anomalies were detected before 20 earthquakes, nearly 67%. The anomalies represent positive before most events and occurred mostly within 2-6 days before the shocks, significantly during the afternoon period, 1200-2000LT. Part of perturbations appeared more than one time. Moreover, the affected area of TEC is not coincide with the vertical projection of the epicenter but shifts equatorward and is controlled by equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crest. On the other hand, we analyzed variations of TEC over southwest China during a period of low solar and geomagnetic activity in April-October 2008, based on the data of CMONC. During that time, six large earthquakes with magnitude M≧6.0 occurred around the southwest region of China. The method to detect abnormal TEC signals is same with above statistical study. Known that the decisive role in the ionosphere state is performed by space weather effects, we compared the TEC variations with time series of EUV solar radiation, Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), index of geomagnetic activity Dst and planetary index Kp, respectively. It is found that the observed anomalies in the regional TEC were in good correlation with the variations of above solar and geomagnetic activities. We have not detected obvious TEC disturbance before five earthquakes expect for Wenchuan earthquake. In order to additionally check the spatial occurrence of the observed anomalies, we chose a 'check-region' with the same geomagnetic latitudes as the epicentral area of the six considered earthquakes, and analyzed the TEC changes. The result shows that the time series of anomalous TEC in 'check-region' is similar to the epicentral area, which was dominated by space weather. Therefore, we are suspicious of the results of statistical investigation showed here or other similar papers, which indicates the difficulties in identifying earthquake precursors in the ionosphere TEC. The seismo-ionospheric coupling process is complex, and it is necessary to strengthen the observation of multi-parameters on the ground, in the atmosphere and ionosphere synchronously.

Earthquake precursors: spatial-temporal gravity changes before the great earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Yi-Qing; Liang, Wei-Feng; Zhang, Song

2018-01-01

Using multiple-scale mobile gravity data in the Sichuan-Yunnan area, we systematically analyzed the relationships between spatial-temporal gravity changes and the 2014 Ludian, Yunnan Province Ms6.5 earthquake and the 2014 Kangding Ms6.3, 2013 Lushan Ms7.0, and 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquakes in Sichuan Province. Our main results are as follows. (1) Before the occurrence of large earthquakes, gravity anomalies occur in a large area around the epicenters. The directions of gravity change gradient belts usually agree roughly with the directions of the main fault zones of the study area. Such gravity changes might reflect the increase of crustal stress, as well as the significant active tectonic movements and surface deformations along fault zones, during the period of gestation of great earthquakes. (2) Continuous significant changes of the multiple-scale gravity fields, as well as greater gravity changes with larger time scales, can be regarded as medium-range precursors of large earthquakes. The subsequent large earthquakes always occur in the area where the gravity changes greatly. (3) The spatial-temporal gravity changes are very useful in determining the epicenter of coming large earthquakes. The large gravity networks are useful to determine the general areas of coming large earthquakes. However, the local gravity networks with high spatial-temporal resolution are suitable for determining the location of epicenters. Therefore, denser gravity observation networks are necessary for better forecasts of the epicenters of large earthquakes. (4) Using gravity changes from mobile observation data, we made medium-range forecasts of the Kangding, Ludian, Lushan, and Wenchuan earthquakes, with especially successful forecasts of the location of their epicenters. Based on the above discussions, we emphasize that medium-/long-term potential for large earthquakes might exist nowadays in some areas with significant gravity anomalies in the study region. Thus, the monitoring should be strengthened.

Expanded spatial extent of the Medieval Climate Anomaly revealed in lake-sediment records across the boreal region in northwest Ontario.

PubMed

Laird, Kathleen R; Haig, Heather A; Ma, Susan; Kingsbury, Melanie V; Brown, Thomas A; Lewis, C F Michael; Oglesby, Robert J; Cumming, Brian F

2012-09-01

Multi-decadal to centennial-scale shifts in effective moisture over the past two millennia are inferred from sedimentary records from six lakes spanning a ~250 km region in northwest Ontario. This is the first regional application of a technique developed to reconstruct drought from drainage lakes (open lakes with surface outlets). This regional network of proxy drought records is based on individual within-lake calibration models developed using diatom assemblages collected from surface sediments across a water-depth gradient. Analysis of diatom assemblages from sediment cores collected close to the near-shore ecological boundary between benthic and planktonic diatom taxa indicated this boundary shifted over time in all lakes. These shifts are largely dependent on climate-driven influences, and can provide a sensitive record of past drought. Our lake-sediment records indicate two periods of synchronous signals, suggesting a common large-scale climate forcing. The first is a period of prolonged aridity during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, c. 900-1400 CE). Documentation of aridity across this region expands the known spatial extent of the MCA megadrought into a region that historically has not experienced extreme droughts such as those in central and western north America. The second synchronous period is the recent signal of the past ~100 years, which indicates a change to higher effective moisture that may be related to anthropogenic forcing on climate. This approach has the potential to fill regional gaps, where many previous paleo-lake depth methods (based on deeper centrally located cores) were relatively insensitive. By filling regional gaps, a better understanding of past spatial patterns in drought can be used to assess the sensitivity and realism of climate model projections of future climate change. This type of data is especially important for validating high spatial resolution, regional climate models. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The Stranding Anomaly as Population Indicator: The Case of Harbour Porpoise Phocoena phocoena in North-Western Europe

PubMed Central

Peltier, Helene; Baagøe, Hans J.; Camphuysen, Kees C. J.; Czeck, Richard; Dabin, Willy; Daniel, Pierre; Deaville, Rob; Haelters, Jan; Jauniaux, Thierry; Jensen, Lasse F.; Jepson, Paul D.; Keijl, Guido O.; Siebert, Ursula; Van Canneyt, Olivier; Ridoux, Vincent

2013-01-01

Ecological indicators for monitoring strategies are expected to combine three major characteristics: ecological significance, statistical credibility, and cost-effectiveness. Strategies based on stranding networks rank highly in cost-effectiveness, but their ecological significance and statistical credibility are disputed. Our present goal is to improve the value of stranding data as population indicator as part of monitoring strategies by constructing the spatial and temporal null hypothesis for strandings. The null hypothesis is defined as: small cetacean distribution and mortality are uniform in space and constant in time. We used a drift model to map stranding probabilities and predict stranding patterns of cetacean carcasses under H0 across the North Sea, the Channel and the Bay of Biscay, for the period 1990–2009. As the most common cetacean occurring in this area, we chose the harbour porpoise Phocoena phocoena for our modelling. The difference between these strandings expected under H0 and observed strandings is defined as the stranding anomaly. It constituted the stranding data series corrected for drift conditions. Seasonal decomposition of stranding anomaly suggested that drift conditions did not explain observed seasonal variations of porpoise strandings. Long-term stranding anomalies increased first in the southern North Sea, the Channel and Bay of Biscay coasts, and finally the eastern North Sea. The hypothesis of changes in porpoise distribution was consistent with local visual surveys, mostly SCANS surveys (1994 and 2005). This new indicator could be applied to cetacean populations across the world and more widely to marine megafauna. PMID:23614031

The statistical extended-range (10-30-day) forecast of summer rainfall anomalies over the entire China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Zhiwei; Li, Tim

2017-01-01

The extended-range (10-30-day) rainfall forecast over the entire China was carried out using spatial-temporal projection models (STPMs). Using a rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis of intraseasonal (10-80-day) rainfall anomalies, China is divided into ten sub-regions. Different predictability sources were selected for each of the ten regions. The forecast skills are ranked for each region. Based on temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) and Gerrity skill score, useful skills are found for most parts of China at a 20-25-day lead. The southern China and the mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley show the highest predictive skills, whereas southwestern China and Huang-Huai region have the lowest predictive skills. By combining forecast results from ten regional STPMs, the TCC distribution of 8-year (2003-2010) independent forecast for the entire China is investigated. The combined forecast results from ten STPMs show significantly higher skills than the forecast with just one single STPM for the entire China. Independent forecast examples of summer rainfall anomalies around the period of Beijing Olympic Games in 2008 and Shanghai World Expo in 2010 are presented. The result shows that the current model is able to reproduce the gross pattern of the summer intraseasonal rainfall over China at a 20-day lead. The present study provides, for the first time, a guide on the statistical extended-range forecast of summer rainfall anomalies for the entire China. It is anticipated that the ideas and methods proposed here will facilitate the extended-range forecast in China.

Decadal variations of Pacific North Equatorial Current bifurcation from multiple ocean products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Fangguo; Wang, Qingye; Wang, Fujun; Hu, Dunxin

2014-02-01

In this study, we examine the decadal variations of the Pacific North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation latitude (NBL) averaged over upper 100 m and underlying dynamics over the past six decades using 11 ocean products, including seven kinds of ocean reanalyzes based on ocean data assimilation systems, two kinds of numerical simulations without assimilating observations and two kinds of objective analyzes based on in situ observations only. During the period of 1954-2007, the multiproduct mean of decadal NBL anomalies shows maxima around 1965/1966, 1980/1981, 1995/1996, and 2003/2004, and minima around 1958, 1971/1972, 1986/1987, and 2000/2001, respectively. The NBL decadal variations are related to the first Empirical Orthogonal Function mode of decadal anomalies of sea surface height (SSH) in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean, which shows spatially coherent variation over the whole region and explains most of the total variance. Further regression and composite analyzes indicate that northerly/southerly NBL corresponds to negative/positive SSH anomalies and cyclonic/anticyclonic gyre anomalies in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean. These decadal circulation variations and thus the decadal NBL variations are governed mostly by the first two vertical modes and attribute the most to the first baroclinic mode. The NBL decadal variation is highly positively correlated with the tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) around the zero time lag. With a lead of about half the decadal cycle the NBL displays closer but negative relationship to TPDV in four ocean products, possibly manifesting the dynamical role of the circulation in the northwestern tropical Pacific in the phase-shifting of TPDV.

Using Satellite Data to Characterize the Temporal Thermal Behavior of an Active Volcano: Mount St. Helens, WA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vaughan, R. Greg; Hook, Simon J.

2006-01-01

ASTER thermal infrared data over Mt. St Helens were used to characterize its thermal behavior from Jun 2000 to Feb 2006. Prior to the Oct 2004 eruption, the average crater temperature varied seasonally between -12 and 6 C. After the eruption, maximum single-pixel temperature increased from 10 C (Oct 2004) to 96 C (Aug 2005), then showed a decrease to Feb 2006. The initial increase in temperature was correlated with dome morphology and growth rate and the subsequent decrease was interpreted to relate to both seasonal trends and a decreased growth rate/increased cooling rate, possibly suggesting a significant change in the volcanic system. A single-pixel ASTER thermal anomaly first appeared on Oct 1, 2004, eleven hours after the first eruption - 10 days before new lava was exposed at the surface. By contrast, an automated algorithm for detecting thermal anomalies in MODIS data did not trigger an alert until Dec 18. However, a single-pixel thermal anomaly first appeared in MODIS channel 23 (4 um) on Oct 13, 12 days after the first eruption - 2 days after lava was exposed. The earlier thermal anomaly detected with ASTER data is attributed to the higher spatial resolution (90 m) compared with MODIS (1 m) and the earlier visual observation of anomalous pixels compared to the automated detection method suggests that local spatial statistics and background radiance data could improve automated detection methods.

Anomaly Trends for Missions to Mars: Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Nelson W.; Hoffman, Alan R.

2008-01-01

The long term flight operations of the Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey spacecraft give us an excellent chance to examine the operations of two long lived spacecraft in orbit around Mars during overlapping time periods. This study examined the anomalies for each mission maintained for NASA at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. By examining the anomalies each mission encountered during their multiyear missions, trends were identified related to when anomalies occurred during each mission, the types of anomalies encountered, and corrective actions taken to mitigate the effects of the anomalies. As has been discovered in previous studies the numbers of anomalies directly correlate with mission activity and show a decreasing trend with elapsed mission time. Trend analysis also identified a heavy emphasis on software as the source or solution to anomalies for both missions.

Mineral associations and character of isotopically anomalous organic material in the Tagish Lake carbonaceous chondrite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zega, Thomas J.; Alexander, Conel M. O.'D.; Busemann, Henner; Nittler, Larry R.; Hoppe, Peter; Stroud, Rhonda M.; Young, Andrea F.

2010-10-01

We report a coordinated analytical study of matrix material in the Tagish Lake carbonaceous chondrite in which the same small (⩽20 μm) fragments were measured by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS), and X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy (XANES). SIMS analysis reveals H and N isotopic anomalies (hotspots), ranging from hundreds to thousands of nanometers in size, which are present throughout the fragments. Although the differences in spatial resolution of the SIMS techniques we have used introduce some uncertainty into the exact location of the hotspots, in general, the H and N isotopic anomalies are spatially correlated with C enrichments, suggesting an organic carrier. TEM analysis, enabled by site-specific extraction using a focused-ion-beam scanning-electron microscope, shows that the hotspots contain an amorphous component, Fe-Ni sulfides, serpentine, and mixed-cation carbonates. TEM imaging reveals that the amorphous component occurs in solid and porous forms, EDS indicates that it contains abundant C, and EELS and XANES at the C K edge reveal that it is largely aromatic. This amorphous component is probably macromolecular C, likely the carrier of the isotopic anomalies, and similar to the material extracted from bulk samples as insoluble organic matter. However, given the large sizes of some of the hotspots, the disparity in spatial resolution among the various techniques employed in our study, and the phases with which they are associated, we cannot entirely rule out that some of the isotopic anomalies are carried by inorganic material, e.g., sheet silicates. The isotopic composition of the organic matter points to an initially primitive origin, quite possibly within cold interstellar clouds or the outer reaches of the solar protoplanetary disk. The association of organic material with secondary phases, e.g., serpentine and carbonates, suggests that the organic matter was susceptible to parent-body processing, and thus, isotopic dilution.

Mediterranean Thermohaline Response to Large-Scale Winter Atmospheric Forcing in a High-Resolution Ocean Model Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cusinato, Eleonora; Zanchettin, Davide; Sannino, Gianmaria; Rubino, Angelo

2018-04-01

Large-scale circulation anomalies over the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean regions described by dominant climate modes, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic pattern (EA), the East Atlantic/Western Russian (EAWR) and the Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOI), significantly affect interannual-to-decadal climatic and hydroclimatic variability in the Euro-Mediterranean region. However, whereas previous studies assessed the impact of such climate modes on air-sea heat and freshwater fluxes in the Mediterranean Sea, the propagation of these atmospheric forcing signals from the surface toward the interior and the abyss of the Mediterranean Sea remains unexplored. Here, we use a high-resolution ocean model simulation covering the 1979-2013 period to investigate spatial patterns and time scales of the Mediterranean thermohaline response to winter forcing from NAO, EA, EAWR and MOI. We find that these modes significantly imprint on the thermohaline properties in key areas of the Mediterranean Sea through a variety of mechanisms. Typically, density anomalies induced by all modes remain confined in the upper 600 m depth and remain significant for up to 18-24 months. One of the clearest propagation signals refers to the EA in the Adriatic and northern Ionian seas: There, negative EA anomalies are associated to an extensive positive density response, with anomalies that sink to the bottom of the South Adriatic Pit within a 2-year time. Other strong responses are the thermally driven responses to the EA in the Gulf of Lions and to the EAWR in the Aegean Sea. MOI and EAWR forcing of thermohaline properties in the Eastern Mediterranean sub-basins seems to be determined by reinforcement processes linked to the persistency of these modes in multiannual anomalous states. Our study also suggests that NAO, EA, EAWR and MOI could critically interfere with internal, deep and abyssal ocean dynamics and variability in the Mediterranean Sea.

A Three Year Study of Four Species of Baleen Whales Occurrence in Faial-Pico Islands of the Azores and its Relation to Satellite-derived Surface Biophysical Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olio, M.; Peres dos Santos, R.; Tepsich, P.; Martins, A. M.

2016-02-01

In this study, data on the distribution of blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus), fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus), sei whales (Balaenoptera borealis) and humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the waters around Faial and Pico islands (Azores archipelago, NE Atlantic) were collected during three years (2012 to 2014) for the months of March to July. During this period of time, we recorded 518 encounters with these species, being 73 in 2012, 86 in 2013 and 359 in 2014. Recordings were made during whale watching trips from two whale watching companies in those islands. In an attempt to understand better the different yearly occurrences, we used MODIS/AQUA-derived Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Ocean Colour (chlorophyll a) to calculate weekly, bi-weekly, monthly, seasonal and yearly averages. Seasonal effects were removed from the data as well, to infer possible trends with time (2011 to 2014). Climatological anomalies were also calculated using MODIS data from 2003 to 2014. Results show that both years 2011 and 2012 present SST and OC negative anomalies through out the whole years. Higher chlorophyll a positive anomalies are observed during the spring of 2014. Maximum SST and chlorophyll a values ranged between 15.4 to 24.0 C and from 0.0 to 0.3 mg m-3, respectively. Sea surface tempature minimum and maxima anomalies ranged from -1.023 and 1.008 both for 2012, and -0.138 and 0.144 for chlorophyll a (for 2012 and 2014, respectively). Preliminary results suggest that phytoplankton concentration may explain the distribution of some whales species, particulary in 2014 where whale records were highest. These results are being further developed looking at mesoscale variability episodical occurrences on weekly to yearly data. Key words: baleen whales, whale watching, spatial and temporal distribution, remote sensing, mesoscale variability.

Palmer LTER: Patterns of distribution of five dominant zooplankton species in the epipelagic zone west of the Antarctic Peninsula, 1993 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, Robin M.; Quetin, Langdon B.; Martinson, Douglas G.; Iannuzzi, Rich A.; Stammerjohn, Sharon E.; Smith, Raymond C.

2008-09-01

Variability in the temporal-spatial distribution and abundance of zooplankton was documented each summer on the Palmer Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) grid west of the Antarctic Peninsula between Anvers and Adelaide Islands during a 12-yr time series. Oblique tows to 120 m with a 2×2 m fixed-frame net were made at about 50 stations each January/February between 1993 and 2004. The numerically dominant macro- and mesozooplanktonic species >2 mm included three species of euphausiids ( Euphausia superba, Antarctic krill; Thysanoëssa macrura; Euphausia crystallorophias, ice krill), a shelled pteropod ( Limacina helicina), and a salp ( Salpa thompsoni). Life cycles, life spans, and habitat varied among these species. Abundance data from each year were allocated to 100 km by 20 km (alongshore by on/offshore) grid cells centered on cardinal transect lines and stations within the Palmer LTER grid. The long-term mean or climatology and means for each year were used to calculate annual anomalies across the grid. Principal components analysis (PCA) was used to analyze for patterns and trends in the temporal-spatial variability of the five species. Questions included whether there are groups of species with similar patterns, and whether population cycles, species interactions or seasonal sea-ice parameters were correlated with detected patterns. Patterns in the climatology were distinct, and matched those of physical parameters. Common features included higher abundance in the north than in the south, independent of the cross-shelf gradients, and cross-shelf gradients with higher abundance either inshore ( E. crystallorophias) or offshore ( S. thompsoni). Anomalies revealed either cycles in the population, as episodic recruitment in Antarctic krill, or changes in anomaly pattern between the first and second half of the sampling period. The 1998 year, which coincided with a rapid change from a negative to a positive phase in the SOI, emerged as a year with either significant anomalies or that marked a change in anomaly patterns for different species. PCA analysis showed that the pattern of cumulative variance with increasing number of modes was distinctly different for shorter-lived versus longer-lived species; the first mode accounted for nearly 50% of the variance in the shorter-lived species and less than 25% in the longer-lived species. This suggested that the mechanisms driving variability in the temporal-spatial distribution of the shorter-lived, more oceanic species were less complex and more direct than those for the longer-lived euphausiids. Evidence from both the anomaly plots and the trend analysis suggested that salps have been more consistently present across the shelf from 1999 to present, and that the range of L. helicina has been expanding. With shorter life spans, these two species can respond more quickly to the increasing heat content on the shelf in this region. The cross-correlation analysis illustrated the negative correlation between salps and ice retreat and the number of ice days, and the positive correlation between the presence of ice krill and the day of ice retreat. These results suggest that for these species, several environmental controls on distribution and abundance were linked to seasonal sea-ice dynamics.

Hemispheric Circulation Regimes Associated with Predominant Anomaly Patterns of Wintertime Temperature Distribution over the Far East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukougawa, H.; Mabuchi, M.

2012-04-01

Characteristics of extratropical planetary flow regimes in the Northern Hemisphere associated with prevailing spatial patterns of temperature anomaly distribution in the winter season (DJF) over the Far East are examined based on 2D phase space spanned by the leading two EOFs of the Far East low-frequency temperature variation by the use of ERA-40 reanalysis dataset from 1957/58 to 2001/02 winter and NOAA OLR dataset from 1979/80 to 2001/02 winter. The first EOF of 10-day low-pass filtered 850-hPa temperature anomaly in the winter season over the Far East (25˚N-50˚N, 120˚E-150˚E) represents a coherent temperature variation over the whole domain while the second EOF corresponds to a meridional dipole pattern with a node around 40˚N. These two leading EOFs explain 76% of the total temperature variance over the Far East. Regression analysis of 250-hPa height anomaly with respect to the corresponding PCs shows that EOF1 and EOF2 are related to the Eurasian (EU) and the West Pacific (WP) pattern, respectively. The PDF of 850-hPa low-frequency temperature anomaly is estimated by the kernel density estimation method of Kimoto and Ghil (1993) in 2D phase space spanned by the leading 2 PCs. Inhomogeneity of the observed PDF from the bivariate Gaussianity is evaluated by a nonparametric method, and we find the existence of two distinct regimes with significantly greater PDF than the Gaussianity: One regime (regime A) represents an atmospheric state with low temperature anomaly over the whole Far East region, especially over Western Japan. The other regime (regime B) corresponds to a state with a prevailing weak positive temperature anomaly over the Far East. Finally, a composite analysis of 250-hPa height anomaly associated with regime A based on the 2D phase space reveals its time evolution as follows: Blocking developing over the Alaska 15 days (day -15) before the mature phase of regime A has a retrograde phase velocity and resides over the Sea of Okhotsk. After day -10, the EU pattern emanating from cyclonic anomaly over Europe creates a cyclonic anomaly over Western Japan and an anticyclonic anomaly over East Siberia. The anticyclonic anomaly is also amplified through the superposition of the retrograding blocking. Then, regime A comprising the EU pattern and the WP pattern with a dominant negative height anomaly over Western Japan causes a strong cold surge in Southeast Asia. Moreover, the analysis on the OLR dataset reveals that an upper-tropospheric Rossby wave train emanating from the Bay of Bengal due to an anomalous convective activity over the South China Sea also plays an important role in forming the cyclonic anomaly over Western Japan. We will discuss the recent high occurrence probability of regime A in connection with the warming trend of the SST over the western Pacific due to the global warming.

Isostatic anomaly characteristics and dynamic environment of New Britain Ocean trenches and neighboring Area in Papua New Guinea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, G.; Shen, C.; Wang, J.

2017-12-01

we calculated the Bouguer gravity anomaly and the Airy-Heiskanen isostatic anomaly in the New Britain ocean trenches and its surrounding areas of Papua New Guinea using the topography model and the gravity anomaly model from Scripps Institute of Oceanography, and analyzed the characteristics of isostatic anomaly and the earthquake dynamic environment of this region. The results show that there are obviously differences in the isostatic state between each block in the region, and the crustal tectonic movement is very intense in the regions with high positive or negative isostatic gravity anomalies; A number of sub-plates in this area is driven by the external tectonic action such as plate subduction and thrust of the Pacific plate, the Indian - Australian plate and the Eurasian plate. From the distribution of isostatic gravity anomaly, the tectonic action of anti-isostatic movement in this region is the main source of power; from the isostatic gravity and the spatial distribution of the earthquake, with the further contraction of the Indian-Australian plate, the southwestern part of the Solomon Haiya plate will become part of the Owen Stanley fold belt, the northern part will enter the lower part of the Bismarck plate, eastern part will enter the front of the Pacific plate, the huge earthquake will migrate to the north and east of the Solomon Haiya plate.

Atmospheric response to anomalous autumn surface forcing in the Arctic Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassano, Elizabeth N.; Cassano, John J.

2017-09-01

Data from four reanalyses are analyzed to evaluate the downstream atmospheric response both spatially and temporally to anomalous autumn surface forcing in the Arctic Basin. Running weekly mean skin temperature anomalies were classified using the self-organizing map algorithm. The resulting classes were used to both composite the initial atmospheric state and determine how the atmosphere evolves from this state. The strongest response was to anomalous forcing—positive skin temperature and total surface energy flux anomalies and reduced sea ice concentration—in the Barents and Kara Seas. Analysis of the evolution of the atmospheric state for 12 weeks after the initial forcing showed a persistence in the anomalies in this area which led to a buildup of heat in the atmosphere. This resulted in positive 1000-500 hPa thickness and high-pressure circulation anomalies in this area which were associated with cold air advection and temperatures over much of central and northern Asia. Evaluation of days with the opposite forcing (i.e., negative skin temperature anomalies and increased sea ice concentration in the Barents and Kara Seas) showed a mirrored, opposite downstream atmospheric response. Other patterns with positive skin temperature anomalies in the Arctic Basin did not show the same response most likely because the anomalies were not as strong nor did they persist for as many weeks following the initial forcing.

Discriminating satellite IR anomalies associated with the MS 7.1 Yushu earthquake in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Kai; Wu, Lixin; Zheng, Shuo; Ma, Weiyu

2018-03-01

In the process of exploring pre-earthquake thermal anomalies using satellite infrared data, Blackett et al. (2011) found that the previously reported anomalies before the 2001 Mw 7.7 Gujarat earthquake, in India, were related to positive biases caused by data gaps due to cloud cover and mosaicing of neighboring orbits of MODIS satellite data. They supposed that such effects could also be responsible for other cases. We noted a strip-shaped TIR anomaly on March 17th, 2010, 28 days before the Ms. 7.1 Yushu earthquake (Qin et al., 2011). Here we again investigate multi-year infrared satellite data in different bands to discriminate whether the anomaly is associated with the earthquake, or is only bias caused by the data gaps. From the water vapor images, we find lots of clouds that have TIR anomalies. However, on the cloudiness background, there is an obvious strip-shaped gap matching the tectonic faults almost perfectly. In particular, the animation loops of hourly water vapor images show that the cloud kept moving from west to east, while they never covered the strip-shaped gap. We consider that the cloud with this special spatial pattern should have implied the abnormal signals associated with the seismogenic process. Based on current physical models, the satellite IR anomalies both on TIR and water vapor bands can qualitatively be explained using synthetic mechanisms.

Relation of decorrelated transionospheric GPS signal fluctuations from two stations in the northern anomaly crest region with equatorial ionospheric dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, K. S.; Paul, A.

2017-05-01

The ionosphere around the northern crest of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) and beyond exhibits rapid temporal as well as spatial development of ionization density irregularities during postsunset hours. A GPS campaign was conducted during September 2012 and April 2013 from the Institute of Radio Physics and Electronics, Calcutta (22.58°N, 88.38°E geographic; magnetic dip: 32°N), and North Bengal University (NBU), Siliguri (26.72°N, 88.39°E geographic, magnetic dip: 39.49°N) in India in order to assess and quantify differences, if any, in the nature of carrier to noise ratio (C/N0) fluctuations observed on the same satellite link around the same time interval from these stations. Significant decorrelation of the received signals was found when tracking the same satellite vehicle (SV) link from these stations during periods of scintillations. Low values of correlation coefficient of C/N0 at L1 frequency recorded on the same SV link at these two stations were found to correspond with high irregularity characteristic velocities. North-south spatial displacement rates of the impact of ionospheric irregularities were calculated based on coordinated GPS observations which followed an increasing trend with irregularity characteristic velocities measured at VHF. Values of characteristic velocities in excess of 36 m/s were also found to result in large receiver position deviations 3.5-4.0 m during periods of scintillations. Information related to time lag associated with occurrence of scintillations on the same SV link observed from two stations could be useful for improving performance of transionospheric satellite-based position determination techniques.

IDENTIFYING ANOMALIES IN GRAVITATIONAL LENS TIME DELAYS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Congdon, Arthur B.; Keeton, Charles R.; Nordgren, C. Erik, E-mail: acongdon@jpl.nasa.go, E-mail: keeton@physics.rutgers.ed, E-mail: nordgren@sas.upenn.ed

2010-02-01

We examine the ability of gravitational lens time delays to reveal complex structure in lens potentials. In a previous paper, we predicted how the time delay between the bright pair of images in a 'fold' lens scales with the image separation, for smooth lens potentials. Here we show that the proportionality constant increases with the quadrupole moment of the lens potential, and depends only weakly on the position of the source along the caustic. We use Monte Carlo simulations to determine the range of time delays that can be produced by realistic smooth lens models consisting of isothermal ellipsoid galaxiesmore » with tidal shear. We can then identify outliers as 'time delay anomalies'. We find evidence for anomalies in close image pairs in the cusp lenses RX J1131 - 1231 and B1422+231. The anomalies in RX J1131 - 1231 provide strong evidence for substructure in the lens potential, while at this point the apparent anomalies in B1422+231 mainly indicate that the time delay measurements need to be improved. We also find evidence for time delay anomalies in larger-separation image pairs in the fold lenses, B1608+656 and WFI 2033 - 4723, and the cusp lens RX J0911+0551. We suggest that these anomalies are caused by some combination of substructure and a complex lens environment. Finally, to assist future monitoring campaigns we use our smooth models with shear to predict the time delays for all known four-image lenses.« less

Identifying Anomalies in Gravitational Lens Time Delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Congdon, Arthur B.; Keeton, Charles R.; Nordgren, C. Erik

2010-02-01

We examine the ability of gravitational lens time delays to reveal complex structure in lens potentials. In a previous paper, we predicted how the time delay between the bright pair of images in a "fold" lens scales with the image separation, for smooth lens potentials. Here we show that the proportionality constant increases with the quadrupole moment of the lens potential, and depends only weakly on the position of the source along the caustic. We use Monte Carlo simulations to determine the range of time delays that can be produced by realistic smooth lens models consisting of isothermal ellipsoid galaxies with tidal shear. We can then identify outliers as "time delay anomalies." We find evidence for anomalies in close image pairs in the cusp lenses RX J1131 - 1231 and B1422+231. The anomalies in RX J1131 - 1231 provide strong evidence for substructure in the lens potential, while at this point the apparent anomalies in B1422+231 mainly indicate that the time delay measurements need to be improved. We also find evidence for time delay anomalies in larger-separation image pairs in the fold lenses, B1608+656 and WFI 2033 - 4723, and the cusp lens RX J0911+0551. We suggest that these anomalies are caused by some combination of substructure and a complex lens environment. Finally, to assist future monitoring campaigns we use our smooth models with shear to predict the time delays for all known four-image lenses.

DeepAnomaly: Combining Background Subtraction and Deep Learning for Detecting Obstacles and Anomalies in an Agricultural Field.

PubMed

Christiansen, Peter; Nielsen, Lars N; Steen, Kim A; Jørgensen, Rasmus N; Karstoft, Henrik

2016-11-11

Convolutional neural network (CNN)-based systems are increasingly used in autonomous vehicles for detecting obstacles. CNN-based object detection and per-pixel classification (semantic segmentation) algorithms are trained for detecting and classifying a predefined set of object types. These algorithms have difficulties in detecting distant and heavily occluded objects and are, by definition, not capable of detecting unknown object types or unusual scenarios. The visual characteristics of an agriculture field is homogeneous, and obstacles, like people, animals and other obstacles, occur rarely and are of distinct appearance compared to the field. This paper introduces DeepAnomaly, an algorithm combining deep learning and anomaly detection to exploit the homogenous characteristics of a field to perform anomaly detection. We demonstrate DeepAnomaly as a fast state-of-the-art detector for obstacles that are distant, heavily occluded and unknown. DeepAnomaly is compared to state-of-the-art obstacle detectors including "Faster R-CNN: Towards Real-Time Object Detection with Region Proposal Networks" (RCNN). In a human detector test case, we demonstrate that DeepAnomaly detects humans at longer ranges (45-90 m) than RCNN. RCNN has a similar performance at a short range (0-30 m). However, DeepAnomaly has much fewer model parameters and (182 ms/25 ms =) a 7.28-times faster processing time per image. Unlike most CNN-based methods, the high accuracy, the low computation time and the low memory footprint make it suitable for a real-time system running on a embedded GPU (Graphics Processing Unit).

DeepAnomaly: Combining Background Subtraction and Deep Learning for Detecting Obstacles and Anomalies in an Agricultural Field

PubMed Central

Christiansen, Peter; Nielsen, Lars N.; Steen, Kim A.; Jørgensen, Rasmus N.; Karstoft, Henrik

2016-01-01

Convolutional neural network (CNN)-based systems are increasingly used in autonomous vehicles for detecting obstacles. CNN-based object detection and per-pixel classification (semantic segmentation) algorithms are trained for detecting and classifying a predefined set of object types. These algorithms have difficulties in detecting distant and heavily occluded objects and are, by definition, not capable of detecting unknown object types or unusual scenarios. The visual characteristics of an agriculture field is homogeneous, and obstacles, like people, animals and other obstacles, occur rarely and are of distinct appearance compared to the field. This paper introduces DeepAnomaly, an algorithm combining deep learning and anomaly detection to exploit the homogenous characteristics of a field to perform anomaly detection. We demonstrate DeepAnomaly as a fast state-of-the-art detector for obstacles that are distant, heavily occluded and unknown. DeepAnomaly is compared to state-of-the-art obstacle detectors including “Faster R-CNN: Towards Real-Time Object Detection with Region Proposal Networks” (RCNN). In a human detector test case, we demonstrate that DeepAnomaly detects humans at longer ranges (45–90 m) than RCNN. RCNN has a similar performance at a short range (0–30 m). However, DeepAnomaly has much fewer model parameters and (182 ms/25 ms =) a 7.28-times faster processing time per image. Unlike most CNN-based methods, the high accuracy, the low computation time and the low memory footprint make it suitable for a real-time system running on a embedded GPU (Graphics Processing Unit). PMID:27845717

Resolving runaway electron distributions in space, time, and energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paz-Soldan, C.; Cooper, C. M.; Aleynikov, P.; Eidietis, N. W.; Lvovskiy, A.; Pace, D. C.; Brennan, D. P.; Hollmann, E. M.; Liu, C.; Moyer, R. A.; Shiraki, D.

2018-05-01

Areas of agreement and disagreement with present-day models of runaway electron (RE) evolution are revealed by measuring MeV-level bremsstrahlung radiation from runaway electrons (REs) with a pinhole camera. Spatially resolved measurements localize the RE beam, reveal energy-dependent RE transport, and can be used to perform full two-dimensional (energy and pitch-angle) inversions of the RE phase-space distribution. Energy-resolved measurements find qualitative agreement with modeling on the role of collisional and synchrotron damping in modifying the RE distribution shape. Measurements are consistent with predictions of phase-space attractors that accumulate REs, with non-monotonic features observed in the distribution. Temporally resolved measurements find qualitative agreement with modeling on the impact of collisional and synchrotron damping in varying the RE growth and decay rate. Anomalous RE loss is observed and found to be largest at low energy. Possible roles for kinetic instability or spatial transport to resolve these anomalies are discussed.

Relationships between northern Adriatic Sea mucilage events and climate variability.

PubMed

Deserti, Marco; Cacciamani, Carlo; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Rinaldi, Attilio; Ferrari, Carla R

2005-12-15

A long term analysis (1865-2002) of meteorological data collected in the Po Valley and Northern Adriatic Basin have been analysed to find possible links between variability in the climatic parameters and the phenomenon of mucilage. Seasonal anomalies of temperature, calculated as spatial mean over the Po Valley area, and anomalies of North Atlantic Oscillation were compared with the historical record of mucilage episodes. Both climatic indices were found to be positively correlated with mucilage events, suggesting a possible relationship between climatic variability and the increased appearance of mucilage aggregates.

Anomaly free cosmological perturbations with generalised holonomy correction in loop quantum cosmology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Yu; Liu, Molin

2018-05-01

In the spatially flat case of loop quantum cosmology, the connection is usually replaced by the holonomy in effective theory. In this paper, instead of the standard scheme, we use a generalised, undetermined function to represent the holonomy and by using the approach of anomaly free constraint algebra we fix all the counter terms in the constraints and find the restriction in the form of , then we derive the gauge-invariant equations of motion of the scalar, tensor and vector perturbations and study the inflationary power spectra with generalised holonomy correction.

Seismo-electromagnetic anomalies observed by Fomosat-1 and GIM TEC during January 27 1999 to July 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, C. Y.; Liu, J. Y. G.

2014-12-01

In this study, we examine the pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies (PEIAs) by the electron density (Ne) and ion temperature (Ti) observed by FORMOSAT-1 (ROCSAT-1) satellite during magnitude greater than 7.0 worldwide earthquakes during 1999-2004. Meanwhile, PEIAs is also currently investigated to have a better understanding of the spatial distribution of the ROCSAT-1 SIPs. Total electron density (TEC) of the global ionosphere map (GIM) confirm that the anomalous feature appear near the epicenters before the earthquakes.

Japanese MAGSAT team

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fukushima, N.; Maeda, H.; Yukutake, T.; Tanaka, M.; Miyazaki, Y.; Oshima, S.; Ogawa, K.; Kawamura, M.; Uyeda, S.; Kobayashi, K.

1982-01-01

Construction of a model of the regional magnetic field and investigation of the local magnetic anomalies and their origin were approaches used in attempts to study the crustal structure near Japan and its Antarctic bases. Spatial properties of the regional magnetic field and comparison of the regional model with that derived from MAGSAT data are discussed. Possible causes of the magnetic anomalies, and results of aeromagnetic surveys incorporating gravity and seismic data are explored. Ionospheric and magnetospheric contributions to geomagnetic variations, field-aligned currents, magnetic geomagnetic pulsations, and hydromagnetic waves by analysis of MAGSAT data are also examined.

Diagnosing low earth orbit satellite anomalies using NOAA-15 electron data associated with geomagnetic perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Nizam; Herdiwijaya, Dhani; Djamaluddin, Thomas; Usui, Hideyuki; Miyake, Yohei

2018-05-01

A satellite placed in space is constantly affected by the space environment, resulting in various impacts from temporary faults to permanent failures depending on factors such as satellite orbit, solar and geomagnetic activities, satellite local time, and satellite construction material. Anomaly events commonly occur during periods of high geomagnetic activity that also trigger plasma variation in the low Earth orbit (LEO) environment. In this study, we diagnosed anomalies in LEO satellites using electron data from the Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector onboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-15 satellite. In addition, we analyzed the fluctuation of electron flux in association with geomagnetic disturbances 3 days before and after the anomaly day. We selected 20 LEO anomaly cases registered in the Satellite News Digest database for the years 2000-2008. Satellite local time, an important parameter for anomaly diagnosis, was determined using propagated two-line element data in the SGP4 simplified general perturbation model to calculate the longitude of the ascending node of the satellite through the position and velocity vectors. The results showed that the majority of LEO satellite anomalies are linked to low-energy electron fluxes of 30-100 keV and magnetic perturbations that had a higher correlation coefficient ( 90%) on the day of the anomaly. The mean local time calculation for the anomaly day with respect to the nighttime migration of energetic electrons revealed that the majority of anomalies (65%) occurred on the night side of Earth during the dusk-to-dawn sector of magnetic local time.

Remote SST Forcing and Local Land-Atmosphere Moisture Coupling as Drivers of Amazon Temperature and Carbon Cycle Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levine, P. A.; Xu, M.; Chen, Y.; Randerson, J. T.; Hoffman, F. M.

2017-12-01

Interannual variability of climatic conditions in the Amazon rainforest is associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ocean-atmosphere interactions in the North Atlantic. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in these remote ocean regions drive teleconnections with Amazonian surface air temperature (T), precipitation (P), and net ecosystem production (NEP). While SST-driven NEP anomalies have been primarily linked to T anomalies, it is unclear how much the T anomalies result directly from SST forcing of atmospheric circulation, and how much result indirectly from decreases in precipitation that, in turn, influence surface energy fluxes. Interannual variability of P associated with SST anomalies lead to variability in soil moisture (SM), which would indirectly affect T via partitioning of turbulent heat fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. To separate the direct and indirect influence of the SST signal on T and NEP, we performed a mechanism-denial experiment to decouple SST and SM anomalies. We used the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACMEv0.3), with version 5 of the Community Atmosphere Model and version 4.5 of the Community Land Model. We forced the model with observed SSTs from 1982-2016. We found that SST and SM variability both contribute to T and NEP anomalies in the Amazon, with relative contributions depending on lag time and location within the Amazon basin. SST anomalies associated with ENSO drive most of the T variability at shorter lag times, while the ENSO-driven SM anomalies contribute more to T variability at longer lag times. SM variability and the resulting influence on T anomalies are much stronger in the eastern Amazon than in the west. Comparing modeled T with observations demonstrate that SST alone is sufficient for simulating the correct timing of T variability, but SM anomalies are necessary for simulating the correct magnitude of the T variability. Modeled NEP indicated that variability in carbon fluxes results from both SST and SM anomalies. As with T, SM anomalies affect NEP at a much longer lag time than SST anomalies. These results highlight the role of land-atmosphere coupling in driving climate variability within the Amazon, and suggest that land atmospheric coupling may amplify and delay carbon cycle responses to ocean-atmosphere teleconnections.

Identifying spatial variability of groundwater discharge in a wetland stream using a distributed temperature sensor

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lowry, Christopher S.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.; Anderson, Mary P.

2007-01-01

Discrete zones of groundwater discharge in a stream within a peat‐dominated wetland were identified on the basis of variations in streambed temperature using a distributed temperature sensor (DTS). The DTS gives measurements of the spatial (±1 m) and temporal (15 min) variation of streambed temperature over a much larger reach of stream (>800 m) than previous methods. Isolated temperature anomalies observed along the stream correspond to focused groundwater discharge zones likely caused by soil pipes within the peat. The DTS also recorded variations in the number of temperature anomalies, where higher numbers correlated well with a gaining reach identified by stream gauging. Focused zones of groundwater discharge showed essentially no change in position over successive measurement periods. Results suggest DTS measurements will complement other techniques (e.g., seepage meters and stream gauging) and help further improve our understanding of groundwater–surface water dynamics in wetland streams.

Prediction of rainfall anomalies during the dry to wet transition season over the Southern Amazonia using machine learning tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, X.; Zhang, K.; Zhuang, Y.; Fu, R.; Hong, Y.

2017-12-01

Seasonal prediction of rainfall during the dry-to-wet transition season in austral spring (September-November) over southern Amazonia is central for improving planting crops and fire mitigation in that region. Previous studies have identified the key large-scale atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamics pre-conditions during the dry season (June-August) that influence the rainfall anomalies during the dry to wet transition season over Southern Amazonia. Based on these key pre-conditions during dry season, we have evaluated several statistical models and developed a Neural Network based statistical prediction system to predict rainfall during the dry to wet transition for Southern Amazonia (5-15°S, 50-70°W). Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) Analysis is applied to the following four fields during JJA from the ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) spanning from year 1979 to 2015: geopotential height at 200 hPa, surface relative humidity, convective inhibition energy (CIN) index and convective available potential energy (CAPE), to filter out noise and highlight the most coherent spatial and temporal variations. The first 10 EOF modes are retained for inputs to the statistical models, accounting for at least 70% of the total variance in the predictor fields. We have tested several linear and non-linear statistical methods. While the regularized Ridge Regression and Lasso Regression can generally capture the spatial pattern and magnitude of rainfall anomalies, we found that that Neural Network performs best with an accuracy greater than 80%, as expected from the non-linear dependence of the rainfall on the large-scale atmospheric thermodynamic conditions and circulation. Further tests of various prediction skill metrics and hindcasts also suggest this Neural Network prediction approach can significantly improve seasonal prediction skill than the dynamic predictions and regression based statistical predictions. Thus, this statistical prediction system could have shown potential to improve real-time seasonal rainfall predictions in the future.

A cross-scale approach to understand drought-induced variability of sagebrush ecosystem productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assal, T.; Anderson, P. J.

2016-12-01

Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) mortality has recently been reported in the Upper Green River Basin (Wyoming, USA) of the sagebrush steppe of western North America. Numerous causes have been suggested, but recent drought (2012-13) is the likely mechanism of mortality in this water-limited ecosystem which provides critical habitat for many species of wildlife. An understanding of the variability in patterns of productivity with respect to climate is essential to exploit landscape scale remote sensing for detection of subtle changes associated with mortality in this sparse, uniformly vegetated ecosystem. We used the standardized precipitation index to characterize drought conditions and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery (250-m resolution) to characterize broad characteristics of growing season productivity. We calculated per-pixel growing season anomalies over a 16-year period (2000-2015) to identify the spatial and temporal variability in productivity. Metrics derived from Landsat satellite imagery (30-m resolution) were used to further investigate trends within anomalous areas at local scales. We found evidence to support an initial hypothesis that antecedent winter drought was most important in explaining reduced productivity. The results indicate drought effects were inconsistent over space and time. MODIS derived productivity deviated by more than four standard deviations in heavily impacted areas, but was well within the interannual variability in other areas. Growing season anomalies highlighted dramatic declines in productivity during the 2012 and 2013 growing seasons. However, large negative anomalies persisted in other areas during the 2014 growing season, indicating lag effects of drought. We are further investigating if the reduction in productivity is mediated by local biophysical properties. Our analysis identified spatially explicit patterns of ecosystem properties altered by severe drought which are consistent with field observations of sagebrush mortality. The results provide a theoretical framework for future field based investigation at multiple spatiotemporal scales.

Urban heat islands in the subsurface of German cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menberg, K.; Blum, P.; Zhu, K.; Bayer, P.

2012-04-01

In the subsurface of many cities there are widespread and persistent thermal anomalies (subsurface urban heat islands) that result in a warming of urban aquifers. The reasons for this heating are manifold. Possible heat sources are basements of buildings, leakage of sewage systems, buried district heating networks, re-injection of cooling water and solar irradiation on paved surfaces. In the current study, the reported groundwater temperatures in several German cities, such as Berlin, Munich, Cologne and Karlsruhe, are compared. Available data sets are supplemented by temperature measurements and depth profiles in observation wells. Trend analyses are conducted with time series of groundwater temperatures, and three-dimensional groundwater temperature maps are provided. In all investigated cities, pronounced positive temperature anomalies are present. The distribution of groundwater temperatures appears to be spatially and temporally highly variable. Apparently, the increased heat input into the urban subsurface is controlled by very local and site-specific parameters. In the long-run, the superposition of various heat sources results in an extensive temperature increase. In many cases, the maximum temperature elevation is found close to the city centre. Regional groundwater temperature differences between the city centre and the rural background are up to 5 °C, with local hot spots of even more pronounced anomalies. Particular heat sources, like cooling water injections or case-specific underground constructions, can cause local temperatures > 20°C in the subsurface. Examination of the long-term variations in isotherm maps shows that temperatures have increased by about 1°C in the city, as well as in the rural background areas over the last decades. This increase could be reproduced with trend analysis of temperature data gathered from several groundwater wells. Comparison between groundwater and air temperatures in Karlsruhe, for example, also indicates a spatial correlation between the urban heat island effect in the subsurface and in the atmosphere.

Investigation of heat flux processes governing the increase of groundwater temperatures beneath cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayer, P.; Menberg, K.; Zhu, K.; Blum, P.

2012-12-01

In the subsurface of many cities there are widespread and persistent thermal anomalies. These so-called subsurface urban heat islands (UHIs), which also stimulate warming of urban aquifers, are triggered by various processes. Possible heat sources are basements of buildings, leakage of sewage systems, buried district heating networks, re-injection of cooling water and solar irradiation on paved surfaces. In the current study, the reported groundwater temperatures in several Central European cities, such as Berlin, Cologne (Germany) and Zurich (Switzerland) are compared. Available data sets are supplemented by temperature measurements and depth profiles in observation wells. Trend analyses are conducted with time series of groundwater temperatures, and three-dimensional groundwater temperature maps are provided. In all investigated cities, pronounced positive temperature anomalies are present. The distribution of groundwater temperatures appears to be spatially and temporally highly variable. Apparently, the increased heat input into the urban subsurface is controlled by very local and site-specific parameters. In the long-run, the combination of various heat sources results in an extensive temperature increase. In many cases, the maximum temperature elevation is found close to the city center. Regional groundwater temperature differences between the city center and the rural background are up to 5 °C, with local hot spots of even more pronounced anomalies. Particular heat sources, like cooling water injections or case-specific underground constructions, can cause local temperatures > 20 °C in the subsurface. Examination of the long-term variations in isotherm maps shows that temperatures have increased by about 1 °C in the city, as well as in the rural background areas over the last decades. This increase could be reproduced with trend analysis of temperature data gathered from several groundwater wells. Comparison between groundwater and air temperatures in the city of Karlsruhe (Germany), for example, also indicates a spatial correlation between the urban heat island effect in the subsurface and in the atmosphere.

The role of spring and autumn phenological switches on spatiotemporal variation in temperate and boreal forest C balance: A FLUXNET synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, A. D.; Reichstein, M.; Piao, S.; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Stockli, R.; Friedl, M.; Gobron, N.; Fluxnet Site Pis, 21

2009-04-01

In temperate and boreal ecosystems, phenological transitions (particularly the timing of spring onset and autumn senescence) are thought to represent a major control on spatial and temporal variation in forest carbon sequestration. To investigate these patterns, we analyzed 153 site-years of data from the FLUXNET ‘La Thuile' database. Eddy covariance measurements of surface-atmosphere exchanges of carbon and water from 21 research sites at latitudes from 36°N to 67°N were used in the synthesis. We defined a range of phenological indicators based on the first (spring) and last (autumn) dates of (1) C source/sink transitions (‘carbon uptake period'); (2) measurable photosynthetic uptake (‘physiologically active period'); (3) relative thresholds for latent heat (evapotranspiration) flux; (4) phenological thresholds derived from a range of remote sensing products (JRC fAPAR, MOD12Q2, and the PROGNOSTIC model with MODIS data assimilation); and (5) a climatological metric based on the date where soil temperature equals mean annual air temperature. We then tested whether site-level flux anomalies were significantly correlated with phenological anomalies across these metrics, and whether the slopes of these relationships (representing the sensitivity to phenological variation) differed between deciduous broadleaf (DBF) and evergreen needleleaf (ENF) forests. Within sites, interannual variation in most phenological metrics was about 5-10 d, compared to 10-30 d across sites. Both spatial and temporal phenological variation were consistently larger at ENF, compared to DBF, sites. Averaged across metrics, phenological variability was roughly comparable in spring and autumn, both across (17 d) and within (9 d) sites. However, patterns of interannual variation in fluxes were less well explained by the derived phenological metrics than were patterns of spatial variation in fluxes. Also, the observed pattern strongly depended on the metric used, with flux-derived metrics generally explaining more, and remote sensing-derived metrics generally explaining less, of the variation in flux anomalies. We found that GPP (gross primary productivity) was consistently more sensitive (both in terms of magnitude and statistical significance; ≈3 g C m-2 d-1 for DBF and ≈2 g C m-2 d-1 for ENF) to phenology than was Reco (ecosystem respiration), which meant that NEP (net ecosystem productivity) tended to be increased both by earlier springs and later autumns. Without exception, when the difference between DBF and ENF in the sensitivity to phenological anomalies was statistically significant, DBF sensitivity was always larger in absolute magnitude than ENF sensitivity. Phenology explained a much larger fraction of the variation in fluxes across sites compared to within sites. Across sites, the rate of increase in GPP with an "exta" day in spring (≈10 g C m-2 d-1) was much larger than in autumn (≈3 g C m-2 d-1). Furthermore, a one-day increase in growing season length across sites increased annual NEP by just ≈2 g C m-2 d-1; this resulted from an increase in GPP of ≈6 g C m-2 d-1 being offset by an increase in RE of ≈4 g C m-2 d-1. In general, there was no statistically significant difference between DBF and ENF in the sensitivity to spatial variation in phenology for either NEP or the component fluxes GPP and Reco. In relation to both within- and across-site variation in phenology and fluxes, the results obtained tended to depend on the phenological metric used, i.e. definition of "start" and "end" of growing season, emphasizing the need for improved understanding of the relationships between these different metrics and ecosystem processes. Furthermore, the differences in flux-phenology relationships in the context of spatial and temporal variation in phenology raise questions about using results from either short-term or space-for-time studies to anticipate responses to future climate change.

Real-time anomaly detection for very short-term load forecasting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Jian; Hong, Tao; Yue, Meng

Although the recent load information is critical to very short-term load forecasting (VSTLF), power companies often have difficulties in collecting the most recent load values accurately and timely for VSTLF applications. This paper tackles the problem of real-time anomaly detection in most recent load information used by VSTLF. This paper proposes a model-based anomaly detection method that consists of two components, a dynamic regression model and an adaptive anomaly threshold. The case study is developed using the data from ISO New England. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method significantly outperforms three other anomaly detection methods including two methods commonlymore » used in the field and one state-of-the-art method used by a winning team of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014. Lastly, a general anomaly detection framework is proposed for the future research.« less

Real-time anomaly detection for very short-term load forecasting

DOE PAGES

Luo, Jian; Hong, Tao; Yue, Meng

2018-01-06

Although the recent load information is critical to very short-term load forecasting (VSTLF), power companies often have difficulties in collecting the most recent load values accurately and timely for VSTLF applications. This paper tackles the problem of real-time anomaly detection in most recent load information used by VSTLF. This paper proposes a model-based anomaly detection method that consists of two components, a dynamic regression model and an adaptive anomaly threshold. The case study is developed using the data from ISO New England. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method significantly outperforms three other anomaly detection methods including two methods commonlymore » used in the field and one state-of-the-art method used by a winning team of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014. Lastly, a general anomaly detection framework is proposed for the future research.« less

The search for Infrared radiation prior to major earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouzounov, D.; Taylor, P.; Pulinets, S.

2004-12-01

This work describes our search for a relationship between tectonic stresses and electro-chemical and thermodynamic processes in the Earth and increases in mid-IR flux as part of a possible ensemble of electromagnetic (EM) phenomena that may be related to earthquake activity. Recent analysis of continuous ongoing long- wavelength Earth radiation (OLR) indicates significant and anomalous variability prior to some earthquakes. The cause of these anomalies is not well understood but could be the result of a triggering by an interaction between the lithosphere-hydrosphere and atmospheric related to changes in the near surface electrical field and gas composition prior to the earthquake. The OLR anomaly covers large areas surrounding the main epicenter. We have use the NOAA IR data to differentiate between the global and seasonal variability and these transient local anomalies. Indeed, on the basis of a temporal and spatial distribution analysis, an anomaly pattern is found to occur several days prior some major earthquakes. The significance of these observations was explored using data sets of some recent worldwide events.

Scientific support of the Apollo infrared scanning radiometer experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mendell, W. W.

1976-01-01

The Infrared Scanning Radiometer (ISR) was designed to map the thermal emission of the lunar surface from the service module of the orbiting Apollo 17 spacecraft. Lunar surface nighttime temperatures, which are extremely difficult to map from earth based telescopes were measured. The ISR transmitted approximately 90 hours of lunar data spread over 5 days in lunar orbit. Approximately 10 to the 8th power independent lunar temperature measurements were made with an absolute accuracy of 2K. Spatial resolution at nadir was approximately 2.2 km (depending on orbital altitude), exceeding that of earth based measurements by at least an order of magnitude. Preliminary studies of the data reveal the highest population of thermal anomalies (or hot spots) in Oceanus Procellarum. Very few anomalies exist on the far side of the moon as was predicted from the association of anomalies with mare on the near side. A number of negative anomalies (or cold spots) have also been found.

Contrasting spatial structures of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation between observations and slab ocean model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Cheng; Li, Jianping; Kucharski, Fred; Xue, Jiaqing; Li, Xiang

2018-04-01

The spatial structure of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is analyzed and compared between the observations and simulations from slab ocean models (SOMs) and fully coupled models. The observed sea surface temperature (SST) pattern of AMO is characterized by a basin-wide monopole structure, and there is a significantly high degree of spatial coherence of decadal SST variations across the entire North Atlantic basin. The observed SST anomalies share a common decadal-scale signal, corresponding to the basin-wide average (i. e., the AMO). In contrast, the simulated AMO in SOMs (AMOs) exhibits a tripole-like structure, with the mid-latitude North Atlantic SST showing an inverse relationship with other parts of the basin, and the SOMs fail to reproduce the observed strong spatial coherence of decadal SST variations associated with the AMO. The observed spatial coherence of AMO SST anomalies is identified as a key feature that can be used to distinguish the AMO mechanism. The tripole-like SST pattern of AMOs in SOMs can be largely explained by the atmosphere-forced thermodynamics mechanism due to the surface heat flux changes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The thermodynamic forcing of AMOs by the NAO gives rise to a simultaneous inverse NAO-AMOs relationship at both interannual and decadal timescales and a seasonal phase locking of the AMOs variability to the cold season. However, the NAO-forced thermodynamics mechanism cannot explain the observed NAO-AMO relationship and the seasonal phase locking of observed AMO variability to the warm season. At decadal timescales, a strong lagged relationship between NAO and AMO is observed, with the NAO leading by up to two decades, while the simultaneous correlation of NAO with AMO is weak. This lagged relationship and the spatial coherence of AMO can be well understood from the view point of ocean dynamics. A time-integrated NAO index, which reflects the variations in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and northward ocean heat transport caused by the accumulated effect of NAO forcing, reasonably well captures the observed multidecadal fluctuations in the AMO. Further analysis using the fully coupled model simulations provides direct modeling evidence that the observed spatial coherence of decadal SST variations across North Atlantic basin can be reproduced only by including the AMOC-related ocean dynamics, and the AMOC acts as a common forcing signal that results in a spatially coherent variation of North Atlantic SST.

Geoelectric precursors to strong earthquakes in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yulin, Zhao; Fuye, Qian

1994-05-01

The main results of searching for electrical precursors to strong earthquakes in China for the last 25 yr are presented. This comprises: the continuous twenty-year resistivity record before and after the great Tangshan earthquake of 1976; spatial and temporal variations in resistivity anomalies observed at more than 6 stations within 150 km of the Tangshan earthquake epicenter; the travel-time curve for the front of the resistivity precursor; and a method of intersection for predicting the epicenter location. These results reveal a number of interesting facts: (1) Resistivity measurements with accuracies of 0.5% or better for over 20 yr show that resistivity decreases of several percent, which began approximately 3 yr prior to the Tangshan earthquake, were larger than the background fluctuations and hence statistically significant. An outstanding example of an intermediate-term resistivity precursor is given. (2) The intermediate-term resistivity precursor decrease before Tangshan earthquake is such a pervasive phenomenon that the mean decrease, in percent, can be contoured on a map of the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region. This shows the maximum decrease centered over the epicenter. (3) The anomalies in resistivity and self-potential, which began 2-0.5 months before the Tangshan main shock, had periods equal to that of the tidal waves M 2 and MS f, respectively, so that the associated anomalies can be identified as impending-earthquake precursors and a modal related to stress-displacement weakening is proposed.

Copula-based drought risk assessment combined with an integrated index in the Wei River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Jianxia; Li, Yunyun; Wang, Yimin; Yuan, Meng

2016-09-01

It is critical to assess drought risk based on a reliably integrated drought index incorporating comprehensive information of meteorology, hydrology and agriculture drought indices, which is of great value for further understanding the future drought tendency, prevention and mitigation. Thus, the primary objective of this study was to focus on constructing a multivariate integrated drought index (MIDI) by coupling four drought indices (i.e., Precipitation Anomaly Percentage (PAP), Runoff Anomaly Percentage (RAP), Standardized Precipitation Index with 6-month aggregation time step (SPI6) and Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (MPDSI)) to objectively and comprehensively investigate drought risk. The variable fuzzy set theory and entropy weight method are used during the MIDI construction process. Based on the MIDI, a drought event including drought duration and severity is redefined using run theory. Then copula-based drought risk is fully assessed through the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity. Results indicate the following: (1) the constructed MIDI is consistent with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Runoff Anomaly Percentage (RAP) series, and it is more sensitive and effective to capture historical drought events; (2) the drought characteristics present noticeable spatial variability among five subzones, and the entire basin has 49 droughts with the longest drought duration spanning 8.55 months; and (3) the mainstream, especially the middle and lower reaches, has higher occurrences of severe droughts for approximately every 10 years.

The Influence of Midlatitude Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling on the Low-Frequency Variability of a GCM. Part I: No Tropical SST Forcing*.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bladé, Ileana

1997-08-01

This study examines the extent to which the thermodynamic interactions between the midlatitude atmosphere and the underlying oceanic mixed layer contribute to the low-frequency atmospheric variability. A general circulation model, run under perpetual northern winter conditions, is coupled to a motionless constant-depth mixed layer in midlatitudes, while elsewhere the sea surface temperature (SST) is kept fixed; interannual tropical SST forcing is not included. It is found that coupling does not modify the spatial organization of the variability. The influence of coupling is manifested as a slight reddening of the spectrum of 500-mb geopotential height and a significant enhancement of the lower-tropospheric thermal variance over the oceans at very low frequencies by virtue of the mixed-layer adjustment to surface air temperature variations that occurs on those timescales. This adjustment effectively reduces the thermal damping of the atmosphere associated with surface heat fluxes (or negative oceanic feedback), thus increasing the thermal variance and the persistence of circulation anomalies.In studying the covariability between ocean and atmosphere it is found that the dominant mode of natural atmospheric variability is coupled to the leading mode of SST in each ocean, with the atmosphere leading the ocean by about one month. The cross-correlation function between oceanic and atmospheric anomalies is strongly asymmetric about zero lag. The SST structures are consistent with direct forcing by the anomalous heat fluxes implied by the concurrent surface air temperature and wind fluctuations. Additionally, composites based on large amplitude SST anomaly events contain no evidence of direct driving of atmospheric perturbations by these SST anomalies. Thus, in terms of the spatial organization of the covariability and the evolution of the coupled system from one regime to another, large-scale air-sea interaction in the model is characterized by one-way atmospheric forcing of the mixed layer.These results are qualitatively consistent with those from an earlier idealized study. They imply a subtle but fundamental role for the midlatitude oceans as stabilizing rather than directly generating atmospheric anomalies. It is argued that this scenario is relevant to the dynamics of extratropical atmosphere-ocean coupling on intraseasonal timescales at least: the model is able to qualitatively reproduce the temporal and spatial characteristics of the observed dominant patterns of interaction on these timescales, particularly over the Atlantic.

Evaluating influence of active tectonics on spatial distribution pattern of floods along eastern Tamil Nadu, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selvakumar, R.; Ramasamy, SM.

2014-12-01

Flooding is a naturally recurrent phenomenon that causes severe damage to lives and property. Predictions on flood-prone zones are made based on intensity-duration of rainfall, carrying capacity of drainage, and natural or man-made obstructions. Particularly, the lower part of the drainage system and its adjacent geomorphic landforms like floodplains and deltaic plains are considered for analysis, but stagnation in parts of basins that are far away from major riverine systems is less unveiled. Similarly, uncharacteristic flooding in the upper and middle parts of drainage, especially in zones of an anomalous drainage pattern, is also least understood. Even though topographic differences are attributed for such anomalous spatial occurrence of floods, its genetic cause has to be identified for effective management practice. Added to structural and lithological variations, tectonic movements too impart micro-scale terrain undulations. Because active tectonic movements are slow-occurring, long-term geological processes, its resultant topographical variations and drainage anomalies are least correlated with floods. The recent floods of Tamil Nadu also exhibit a unique distribution pattern emphasizing the role of tectonics over it. Hence a detailed geoinformatics-based analysis was carried out to envisage the relationship between spatial distribution of flood and active tectonic elements such as regional arches and deeps, block faults, and graben and drainage anomalies such as deflected drainage, compressed meander, and eyed drainages. The analysis reveals that micro-scale topographic highs and lows imparted by active tectonic movements and its further induced drainage anomalies have substantially controlled the distribution pattern of flood.

Chasing the TIRS ghosts: calibrating the Landsat 8 thermal bands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schott, John R.; Gerace, Aaron; Raqueno, Nina; Ientilucci, Emmett; Raqueno, Rolando; Lunsford, Allen W.

2014-10-01

The Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) on board Landsat 8 has exhibited a number of anomalous characteristics that have made it difficult to calibrate. These anomalies include differences in the radiometric appearance across the blackbody pre- and post-launch, variations in the cross calibration ratios between detectors that overlap on adjacent arrays (resulting in banding) and bias errors in the absolute calibration that can change spatially/temporally. Several updates to the TIRS calibration procedures were made in the months after launch to attempt to mitigate the impact of these anomalies on flat fielding (cosmetic removal of banding and striping) and mean level bias correction. As a result, banding and striping variations have been reduced but not eliminated and residual bias errors in band 10 should be less than 2 degrees for most targets but can be significantly more in some cases and are often larger in band 11. These corrections have all been essentially ad hoc without understanding or properly accounting for the source of the anomalies, which were, at the time unknown. This paper addresses the procedures that have been undertaken to; better characterize the nature of these anomalies, attempt to identify the source(s) of the anomalies, quantify the phenomenon responsible for them, and develop correction procedures to more effectively remove the impacts on the radiometric products. Our current understanding points to all of the anomalies being the result of internal reflections of energy from outside the target detector's field-of-view, and often outside the telescope field-of-view, onto the target detector. This paper discusses how various members of the Landsat calibration team discovered the clues that led to how; these "ghosts" were identified, they are now being characterized, and their impact can hopefully eventually be corrected. This includes use of lunar scans to generate initial maps of influence regions, use of long path overlap ratios to explore sources of change and use of variations in bias calculated from truth sites to quantify influences from the surround on absolute bias errors.

Effects of increase in temperature and open water on transmigration and access to health care by the Nenets reindeer herders in northern Russia

PubMed Central

Amstislavski, Philippe; Zubov, Leonid; Chen, Herman; Ceccato, Pietro; Pekel, Jean-Francois; Weedon, Jeremy

2013-01-01

Background The indigenous Nenets reindeer herders in northern Russia annually migrate several hundred kilometers between summer and winter pastures. In the warming climate, ice-rich permafrost and glaciers are being significantly reduced and will eventually disappear from parts of the Arctic. The emergent changes in hydrological cycles have already led to substantial increases in open water that stays unfrozen for longer periods of time. This environmental change has been reported to compromise the nomadic Nenets’ traditional way of life because the presence of new water in the tundra reduces the Nenets’ ability to travel by foot, sled, or motor vehicle from the summer transitory tundra campsites in order to access healthcare centers in villages. New water can also impede their access to family and community at other herder camps and in the villages. Although regional and global models predicting hydrologic changes due to climate changes exist, the spatial resolution of these models is too coarse for studying how increases in open water affect health and livelihoods. To anticipate the full health impact of hydrologic changes, the current gap between globally forecasted scenarios and locally forecasted hydrologic scenarios needs to be bridged. Objectives We studied the effects of the autumn temperature anomalies and increases in open water on health care access and transmigration of reindeer herders on the Kanin Peninsula. Design Correlational and time series analyses were completed. Methods The study population consisted of 370 full-time, nomadic reindeer herders. We utilized clinical visit records, studied surface temperature anomalies during autumn migrations, and used remotely sensed imagery to detect water bodies. Spearman correlation was used to measure the relationship between temperature anomalies and the annual arrival of the herders at the Nes clinic for preventive and primary care. Piecewise regression was used to model change in mean autumnal temperature anomalies over time. We also created a water body product to detect inter-annual changes in water area. Results Correlation between arrivals to the Nes clinic and temperature anomalies during the fall transmigration (1979–2011) was r = 0.64, p = 0.0004; 95% CI (0.31; 0.82). Regression analysis estimated that mean temperature anomalies during the fall migration in September–December were stochastically stationary pre-1991 and have been rising significantly (p < 0.001) since then. The rate of change was estimated at +0.1351°C/year, SE = 0.0328, 95% CI (+0.0694, +0.2007). The amount of detected water fluctuated significantly interannually (620–800 km2). Conclusions Later arrival of freezing temperatures in the autumn followed by the earlier spring thaws and more open water delay transmigration and reduce herders’ access to health care. The recently observed delays in arrival to the clinic are likely related to the warming trend and to concomitant hydrologic changes. PMID:23971018

Effects of increase in temperature and open water on transmigration and access to health care by the Nenets reindeer herders in northern Russia.

PubMed

Amstislavski, Philippe; Zubov, Leonid; Chen, Herman; Ceccato, Pietro; Pekel, Jean-Francois; Weedon, Jeremy

2013-01-01

The indigenous Nenets reindeer herders in northern Russia annually migrate several hundred kilometers between summer and winter pastures. In the warming climate, ice-rich permafrost and glaciers are being significantly reduced and will eventually disappear from parts of the Arctic. The emergent changes in hydrological cycles have already led to substantial increases in open water that stays unfrozen for longer periods of time. This environmental change has been reported to compromise the nomadic Nenets' traditional way of life because the presence of new water in the tundra reduces the Nenets' ability to travel by foot, sled, or motor vehicle from the summer transitory tundra campsites in order to access healthcare centers in villages. New water can also impede their access to family and community at other herder camps and in the villages. Although regional and global models predicting hydrologic changes due to climate changes exist, the spatial resolution of these models is too coarse for studying how increases in open water affect health and livelihoods. To anticipate the full health impact of hydrologic changes, the current gap between globally forecasted scenarios and locally forecasted hydrologic scenarios needs to be bridged. We studied the effects of the autumn temperature anomalies and increases in open water on health care access and transmigration of reindeer herders on the Kanin Peninsula. Correlational and time series analyses were completed. The study population consisted of 370 full-time, nomadic reindeer herders. We utilized clinical visit records, studied surface temperature anomalies during autumn migrations, and used remotely sensed imagery to detect water bodies. Spearman correlation was used to measure the relationship between temperature anomalies and the annual arrival of the herders at the Nes clinic for preventive and primary care. Piecewise regression was used to model change in mean autumnal temperature anomalies over time. We also created a water body product to detect inter-annual changes in water area. Correlation between arrivals to the Nes clinic and temperature anomalies during the fall transmigration (1979-2011) was r = 0.64, p = 0.0004; 95% CI (0.31; 0.82). Regression analysis estimated that mean temperature anomalies during the fall migration in September-December were stochastically stationary pre-1991 and have been rising significantly (p < 0.001) since then. The rate of change was estimated at +0.1351°C/year, SE = 0.0328, 95% CI (+0.0694, +0.2007). The amount of detected water fluctuated significantly interannually (620-800 km(2)). Later arrival of freezing temperatures in the autumn followed by the earlier spring thaws and more open water delay transmigration and reduce herders' access to health care. The recently observed delays in arrival to the clinic are likely related to the warming trend and to concomitant hydrologic changes.

Mesoscale Eddies in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean: Three-Dimensional Eddy Structures and Heat/Salt Transports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Di; Brandt, Peter; Chang, Ping; Schütte, Florian; Yang, Xiaofeng; Yan, Jinhui; Zeng, Jisheng

2017-12-01

The region encompassing the Kuroshio Extension (KE) in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean (25°N-45°N and 130°E-180°E) is one of the most eddy-energetic regions of the global ocean. The three-dimensional structures and transports of mesoscale eddies in this region are comprehensively investigated by combined use of satellite data and Argo profiles. With the allocation of Argo profiles inside detected eddies, the spatial variations of structures of eddy temperature and salinity anomalies are analyzed. The results show that eddies predominantly have subsurface (near-surface) intensified temperature and salinity anomalies south (north) of the KE jet, which is related to different background stratifications between these regions. A new method based on eddy trajectories and the inferred three-dimensional eddy structures is proposed to estimate heat and salt transports by eddy movements in a Lagrangian framework. Spatial distributions of eddy transports are presented over the vicinity of the KE for the first time. The magnitude of eddy-induced meridional heat (freshwater volume) transport is on the order of 0.01 PW (103 m3/s). The eddy heat transport divergence results in an oceanic heat loss south and heat gain north of the KE, thereby reinforcing and counteracting the oceanic heat loss from air-sea fluxes south and north of the KE jet, respectively. It also suggests a poleward heat transport across the KE jet due to eddy propagation.

Shifting patterns of ENSO variability from a 492-year South Pacific coral core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tangri, N.; Linsley, B. K.; Mucciarone, D.; Dunbar, R. B.

2017-12-01

Anticipating the impacts of ENSO in a changing climate requires detailed reconstructions of changes in its timing, amplitude, and spatial pattern, as well as attempts to attribute those changes to external forcing or internal variability. A continuous coral δ18O record from American Samoa, in the tropical South Pacific, sheds light on almost five centuries of these changes. We find evidence of internally-driven 50-100 year cycles with broad peaks of high variability punctuated by short transitions of low variability. We see a long, slow trend towards more frequent ENSO events, punctuated by sharp decreases in frequency; the 20th century in particular shows a strong trend towards higher-frequency ENSO. Due to the unique location of American Samoa with respect to ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, we infer changes in the spatial pattern of ENSO. American Samoa currently lies on the ENSO 3.4 nodal line - the boomerang shape that separates waters warmed by El Niño from those that cool. Closer examination reveals that SST around American Samoa displays opposing responses to Eastern and Central Pacific ENSO events. However, this has not always been the case; in the late 19th and early 20th century, SST responded similarly to both flavors of ENSO. We interpret this to mean a geographic narrowing towards the equator of the eastern Pacific El Niño SST anomaly pattern in the first half of the 20th century.

EMPACT 3D: an advanced EMI discrimination sensor for CONUS and OCONUS applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keranen, Joe; Miller, Jonathan S.; Schultz, Gregory; Sander-Olhoeft, Morgan; Laudato, Stephen

2018-04-01

We recently developed a new, man-portable, electromagnetic induction (EMI) sensor designed to detect and classify small, unexploded sub-munitions and discriminate them from non-hazardous debris. The ability to distinguish innocuous metal clutter from potentially hazardous unexploded ordnance (UXO) and other explosive remnants of war (ERW) before excavation can significantly accelerate land reclamation efforts by eliminating time spent removing harmless scrap metal. The EMI sensor employs a multi-axis transmitter and receiver configuration to produce data sufficient for anomaly discrimination. A real-time data inversion routine produces intrinsic and extrinsic anomaly features describing the polarizability, location, and orientation of the anomaly under test. We discuss data acquisition and post-processing software development, and results from laboratory and field tests demonstrating the discrimination capability of the system. Data acquisition and real-time processing emphasize ease-of-use, quality control (QC), and display of discrimination results. Integration of the QC and discrimination methods into the data acquisition software reduces the time required between sensor data collection and the final anomaly discrimination result. The system supports multiple concepts of operations (CONOPs) including: 1) a non-GPS cued configuration in which detected anomalies are discriminated and excavated immediately following the anomaly survey; 2) GPS integration to survey multiple anomalies to produce a prioritized dig list with global anomaly locations; and 3) a dynamic mapping configuration supporting detection followed by discrimination and excavation of targets of interest.

Global empirical model of TEC response to geomagnetic activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhtarov, P.; Andonov, B.; Pancheva, D.

2013-10-01

global total electron content (TEC) model response to geomagnetic activity described by the Kp index is built by using the Center for Orbit Determination of Europe (CODE) TEC data for a full 13 years, January 1999 to December 2011. The model describes the most probable spatial distribution and temporal variability of the geomagnetically forced TEC anomalies assuming that these anomalies at a given modified dip latitude depend mainly on the Kp index, local time (LT), and longitude. The geomagnetic anomalies are expressed by the relative deviation of TEC from its 15 day median and are denoted as rTEC. The rTEC response to the geomagnetic activity is presented by a sum of two responses with different time delay constants and different signs of the cross-correlation function. It has been found that the mean dependence of rTEC on Kp index can be expressed by a cubic function. The LT dependence of rTEC is described by Fourier time series which includes the contribution of four diurnal components with periods 24, 12, 8, and 6 h. The rTEC dependence on longitude is presented by Fourier series which includes the contribution of zonal waves with zonal wave numbers up to 6. In order to demonstrate how the model is able to reproduce the rTEC response to geomagnetic activity, three geomagnetic storms at different seasons and solar activity conditions are presented. The model residuals clearly reveal two types of the model deviation from the data: some underestimation of the largest TEC response to the geomagnetic activity and randomly distributed errors which are the data noise or anomalies generated by other sources. The presented TEC model fits to the CODE TEC input data with small negative bias of -0.204, root mean squares error RMSE = 4.592, and standard deviation error STDE = 4.588. The model offers TEC maps which depend on geographic coordinates (5° × 5° in latitude and longitude) and universal time (UT) at given geomagnetic activity and day of the year. It could be used for both science and possible service (nowcasting and short-term prediction); for the latter, a detailed validation of the model at different geophysical conditions has to be performed in order to clarify the model predicting quality.

What is the variability in US west coast winter precipitation during strong El Niño events?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Arun; Chen, Mingyue

2017-10-01

Motivated by the fact that the spatial pattern of the observed precipitation anomalies during 2015/16 winter (a year of strong El Niño) over the west coast of the US and that of the El Niño composite precipitation pattern had considerable differences, the variability in the winter precipitation during strong El Niño events is assessed. The analysis is based on a set of hindcasts (1982-2011) and real-time forecasts (2012-2015) from NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), and the following aspects for seasonal mean precipitation variability were examined: (1) the mean signal during strong El Niño based on the composite analysis, and further, the variability from the composite on an event-to-event basis; (2) probability of occurrence for precipitation anomalies to be opposite to the signal (inferred as the composite mean); (3) the probability to have precipitation anomaly in different categories varying from wet to dry; and (4) variations in the characteristics of precipitation from OND, NDJ, to DJF (early to late boreal winter). The results show that the model forecasted seasonal mean precipitation composite for strong El Niño was similar to the linear regression signal with the Niño 3.4 index in observations, with negative anomalies over the Pacific Northwest and positive anomalies over California. However, although in response to an El Niño event, the California precipitation PDF was shifted towards positive values relative to the climatological PDF, the overlap between climatological PDF and the PDF for El Niño events was considerable. This is because of the large variability in seasonal mean outcomes of precipitation from one forecast to another, and therefore, chances to have precipitation anomalies with their sign opposite to the composite El Niño signal remain appreciable. In this paradigm, although the seasonal mean precipitation during 2015/16 winter over the west coast of the US differed from the mean signal for a strong El Niño event, the observed anomalies were well within the envelope of possible outcomes. This has significant implications for seasonal predictability and prediction skill, and further, poses challenges for decision makers in the uptake of seasonal forecast information.

Global Horizontal Irradiance Anomalies in Long Term Series Over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cony, Marco; Liria, Juan; Weisenberg, Ralf; Serrano, Enrique

2014-05-01

India has a high potential for solar energy applications due to its geographic position within the Sun Belt and the large number of cloudless days in many regions of the country. However, certain regions of India, particularly those largely populated, can exhibit large aerosol loading in the atmosphere as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions that could have a negative feedback in the solar resource potential. This effect, named as solar dimming, has already been observed in India, and in some other regions in the world, by some authors using ground data from the last two decades. The recent interest in the promotion of solar energy applications in India highlights the need of extending and improving the knowledge of the solar radiation resources in this country, since most of the long term measurements available correspond to global horizontal radiation (GHI) and most of them are also located big cities or highly populated areas. In addition, accurate knowledge on the aerosol column quantification and on its dynamical behavior with high spatial resolution is particularly important in the case of India, due to their impact on direct normal irradiation. Long term studies of solar irradiation over India can be performed using monthly means of GHI measurements from the Indian Meteorological Department. Ground data are available from 1964 till today through the World Radiation Data Centre that publish these values in the web. This work shows a long term analysis of GHI using anomalies techniques over ten different sites over India. Besides, techniques of linear trends have been applied for to show the evolution over this period. The analysis of anomalies has also found two periods of different behavior. From 1964 till 1988 the anomalies observed were positive and the last 20 years seems to be a period of negative anomalies. The results exhibit a decreasing trend and negative anomalies confirming thus the darkening effect already reported by solar dimming studies. This observation is also consequent with solar dimming effect, apparently increased during the last two decades due to the increase of aerosol loading in the atmosphere. These results remark the important of having accurate knowledge of atmospheric aerosol loading and its dynamics over India with high spatial resolution in the framework of solar energy deployment in the country. It is worth to mention that greater anomalies and a noticeable decreasing trend found in Calcutta could be correlated with the highly population rate, and thus the greater the population density of the area the greater the negative anomalies and the decreasing trend of solar irradiation monthly means.

Leveraging Mechanism Simplicity and Strategic Averaging to Identify Signals from Highly Heterogeneous Spatial and Temporal Ozone Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown-Steiner, B.; Selin, N. E.; Prinn, R. G.; Monier, E.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Tilmes, S.; Emmons, L. K.; Lamarque, J. F.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.

2017-12-01

We summarize two methods to aid in the identification of ozone signals from underlying spatially and temporally heterogeneous data in order to help research communities avoid the sometimes burdensome computational costs of high-resolution high-complexity models. The first method utilizes simplified chemical mechanisms (a Reduced Hydrocarbon Mechanism and a Superfast Mechanism) alongside a more complex mechanism (MOZART-4) within CESM CAM-Chem to extend the number of simulated meteorological years (or add additional members to an ensemble) for a given modeling problem. The Reduced Hydrocarbon mechanism is twice as fast, and the Superfast mechanism is three times faster than the MOZART-4 mechanism. We show that simplified chemical mechanisms are largely capable of simulating surface ozone across the globe as well as the more complex chemical mechanisms, and where they are not capable, a simple standardized anomaly emulation approach can correct for their inadequacies. The second method uses strategic averaging over both temporal and spatial scales to filter out the highly heterogeneous noise that underlies ozone observations and simulations. This method allows for a selection of temporal and spatial averaging scales that match a particular signal strength (between 0.5 and 5 ppbv), and enables the identification of regions where an ozone signal can rise above the ozone noise over a given region and a given period of time. In conjunction, these two methods can be used to "scale down" chemical mechanism complexity and quantitatively determine spatial and temporal scales that could enable research communities to utilize simplified representations of atmospheric chemistry and thereby maximize their productivity and efficiency given computational constraints. While this framework is here applied to ozone data, it could also be applied to a broad range of geospatial data sets (observed or modeled) that have spatial and temporal coverage.

Developing a multi-stressor gradient for coral reefs | Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Coral reefs are often found near coastal waters where multiple anthropogenic stressors co-occur at areas of human disturbance. Developing coral reef biocriteria under the U.S. Clean Water Act requires relationships between anthropogenic stressors and coral reef condition to be established. Developing stressor gradients presents challenges including: stressors which co-occur but operate at different or unknown spatial and temporal scales, inconsistent data availability measuring stressor levels, and unknown effects on exposed reef biota. We are developing a generalized stressor model using Puerto Rico as case study location, to represent the cumulative spatial/temporal co-occurrence of multiple anthropogenic stressors. Our approach builds on multi-stressor research in streams and rivers, and focuses on three high-priority stressors identified by coral reef experts: land-based sources of pollution (LBSP), global climate change (GCC) related temperature anomalies, and fishing pressure. Landscape development intensity index, based on land use/land cover data, estimates human impact in watersheds adjacent to coral reefs and is proxy for LBSP. NOAA’s retrospective daily thermal anomaly data is used to determine GCC thermal anomalies. Fishing pressure is modeled using gear-specific and fishery landings data. Stressor data was adjusted to a common scale or weighted for relative importance, buffered to account for diminished impact further from source, and compared wit

A Gridded Daily Min/Max Temperature Dataset With 0.1° Resolution for the Yangtze River Valley and its Error Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Qiufen; Hu, Jianglin

2013-05-01

The minimum/maximum (Min/Max) temperature in the Yangtze River valley is decomposed into the climatic mean and anomaly component. A spatial interpolation is developed which combines the 3D thin-plate spline scheme for climatological mean and the 2D Barnes scheme for the anomaly component to create a daily Min/Max temperature dataset. The climatic mean field is obtained by the 3D thin-plate spline scheme because the relationship between the decreases in Min/Max temperature with elevation is robust and reliable on a long time-scale. The characteristics of the anomaly field tend to be related to elevation variation weakly, and the anomaly component is adequately analyzed by the 2D Barnes procedure, which is computationally efficient and readily tunable. With this hybridized interpolation method, a daily Min/Max temperature dataset that covers the domain from 99°E to 123°E and from 24°N to 36°N with 0.1° longitudinal and latitudinal resolution is obtained by utilizing daily Min/Max temperature data from three kinds of station observations, which are national reference climatological stations, the basic meteorological observing stations and the ordinary meteorological observing stations in 15 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River valley from 1971 to 2005. The error estimation of the gridded dataset is assessed by examining cross-validation statistics. The results show that the statistics of daily Min/Max temperature interpolation not only have high correlation coefficient (0.99) and interpolation efficiency (0.98), but also the mean bias error is 0.00 °C. For the maximum temperature, the root mean square error is 1.1 °C and the mean absolute error is 0.85 °C. For the minimum temperature, the root mean square error is 0.89 °C and the mean absolute error is 0.67 °C. Thus, the new dataset provides the distribution of Min/Max temperature over the Yangtze River valley with realistic, successive gridded data with 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution and daily temporal scale. The primary factors influencing the dataset precision are elevation and terrain complexity. In general, the gridded dataset has a relatively high precision in plains and flatlands and a relatively low precision in mountainous areas.

Marine Magnetic Anomalies and the Reconstruction of the World

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heirtzler, James R.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Until the middle of the 20th century little was known about magnetic anomalies in the oceans. Then it was discovered that there are relatively large anomalies in most of the oceans and they were unrelated to any geological structure known at that time. In the early 1950's large anomalies had been found over the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, and linear anomalies over the eastern continental shelf of North America and, shortly after that, off the west coast. A survey of the ridge south of Iceland showed that the anomalies were linear, parallel to the ridge axis, and symmetrical about the axis. Using the theory that the anomalies were caused by geomagnetic field reversals and seafloor spreading it was possible to greatly extend the time scale of geomagnetic reversals, to determine the velocity of seafloor spreading and estimate the time of opening of the North Atlantic. Lamont had a world-wide collection of marine magnetic profiles. These were used, systematically, to determine the positions of most of the land masses of the world since the beginnings of the world's present oceans.

Reconstruction of Last Glacial Tropical SST Anomalies from Mg/Ca and UK37' to Constrain Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lea, D. W.; de Garidel-Thoron, T.; Bard, E. G.; Kienast, M.

2016-12-01

Proxy paleoclimate data provides an important constrain on climate sensitivity. The tropics have been identified as a region which primarily responds to greenhouse gas forcing (GHF). The SENSETROP (Sensitivity of the Tropics) group has identified the LGM, HS1 and HS2 as key time windows to test the hypothesis that SST anomalies recorded by two geochemical paleothermometers, Mg/Ca and UK37', can be used to establish tropical climate response and, via the magnitude and spatial pattern of these anomalies, provide robust comparisons to the output of general circulation models. This work is a logical extension of prior efforts such as CLIMAP and MARGO, which largely relied on faunal SST proxies that are affected by other factors such as productivity or water column structure. With this goal in mind we have developed the SENSETROP database of published and unpublished Mg/Ca and UK37' data from low latitude (30° N to 30° S) marine cores spanning the last glacial cycle. The database contains 78 Mg/Ca records and 40 UK37' records, distributed between the tropical ocean basins: 49 in the Pacific Ocean, 32 in the Indian Ocean, and 27 in the Atlantic Ocean. Most of the cores are confined to the ocean margins. All of the data come from well dated records that include radiocarbon. As a test of the database, we determined the average SST anomaly during the LGM, 19,000-23,000 yr BP, relative to the late Holocene, 0-4,000 yr BP, from select records that contain at least 4 SST points in each time window for which the SDs < 0.75 °C. For G. ruber (all morphotypes) Mg/Ca, the recorded anomaly from 23 cores is -2.6 ± 0.6 °C, based on >1100 individual determinations. For UK37', the recorded anomaly for 14 cores is -2.4 ± 0.9 °C, based on >400 individual determinations. Agreement between these two independent proxies increases confidence in the LGM cooling level. The new results from the SENSETROP database show a strong level of homogeneity throughout the tropics, with slightly ( 0.3 °C) greater cooling in the NH. These results are in marked contrast to MARGO, which showed a strong level of heterogeneity in tropical SST. The new SENSETROP results are consistent with a primary control of greenhouse gas forcing on tropical SSTs during the LGM. Extension of these results to ECS determinations suggests values consistent with the IPCC canonical range.

Detection of Low Temperature Volcanogenic Thermal Anomalies with ASTER

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pieri, D. C.; Baxter, S.

2009-12-01

Predicting volcanic eruptions is a thorny problem, as volcanoes typically exhibit idiosyncratic waxing and/or waning pre-eruption emission, geodetic, and seismic behavior. It is no surprise that increasing our accuracy and precision in eruption prediction depends on assessing the time-progressions of all relevant precursor geophysical, geochemical, and geological phenomena, and on more frequently observing volcanoes when they become restless. The ASTER instrument on the NASA Terra Earth Observing System satellite in low earth orbit provides important capabilities in the area of detection of volcanogenic anomalies such as thermal precursors and increased passive gas emissions. Its unique high spatial resolution multi-spectral thermal IR imaging data (90m/pixel; 5 bands in the 8-12um region), bore-sighted with visible and near-IR imaging data, and combined with off-nadir pointing and stereo-photogrammetric capabilities make ASTER a potentially important volcanic precursor detection tool. We are utilizing the JPL ASTER Volcano Archive (http://ava.jpl.nasa.gov) to systematically examine 80,000+ ASTER volcano images to analyze (a) thermal emission baseline behavior for over 1500 volcanoes worldwide, (b) the form and magnitude of time-dependent thermal emission variability for these volcanoes, and (c) the spatio-temporal limits of detection of pre-eruption temporal changes in thermal emission in the context of eruption precursor behavior. We are creating and analyzing a catalog of the magnitude, frequency, and distribution of volcano thermal signatures worldwide as observed from ASTER since 2000 at 90m/pixel. Of particular interest as eruption precursors are small low contrast thermal anomalies of low apparent absolute temperature (e.g., melt-water lakes, fumaroles, geysers, grossly sub-pixel hotspots), for which the signal-to-noise ratio may be marginal (e.g., scene confusion due to clouds, water and water vapor, fumarolic emissions, variegated ground emissivity, and their combinations). To systematically detect such intrinsically difficult anomalies within our large archive, we are exploring a four step approach: (a) the recursive application of a GPU-accelerated, edge-preserving bilateral filter prepares a thermal image by removing noise and fine detail; (b) the resulting stylized filtered image is segmented by a path-independent region-growing algorithm, (c) the resulting segments are fused based on thermal affinity, and (d) fused segments are subjected to thermal and geographical tests for hotspot detection and classification, to eliminate false alarms or non-volcanogenic anomalies. We will discuss our progress in creating the general thermal anomaly catalog as well as algorithm approach and results. This work was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory of the California Institute of Technology under contract to NASA.

Evidence of Plumes on Europa from far-ultraviolet observations with HST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparks, William B.; McGrath, Melissa; Schmidt, Britney; Bergeron, Eddie; Hand, Kevin; Spencer, John; Cracraft, Misty; Deustua, Susana

2018-01-01

Evidence for plumes of water emerging from the icy surface of Europa has been found by the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) using two different UV observing techniques. Roth et al. (2014) found line emission from the dissociation products of water. Sparks et al. (2016, 2017) found evidence for off-limb continuum absorption as Europa transited Jupiter. We describe the transit method which obtains far ultraviolet images of Europa as it passes in front of the smooth face of Jupiter, seeking off-limb absorption patches that may be due to plumes on Europa. This approach exploits the time resolution, sensitivity and spatial resolution of HST, coupled to the high cross-sections for molecules of interest at these wavelengths. We show that a well-localized plume candidate appears more than once, and that it is at the same position as a nighttime thermal anomaly seen by the Galileo spacecraft, the warmest point on the observed Europa nightside. The favored interpretation of the thermal anomaly is a modification to the local thermal inertia, which could be causally related to plume activity. Future plans for additional work in this area are described.

SU-G-JeP4-03: Anomaly Detection of Respiratory Motion by Use of Singular Spectrum Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kotoku, J; Kumagai, S; Nakabayashi, S

Purpose: The implementation and realization of automatic anomaly detection of respiratory motion is a very important technique to prevent accidental damage during radiation therapy. Here, we propose an automatic anomaly detection method using singular value decomposition analysis. Methods: The anomaly detection procedure consists of four parts:1) measurement of normal respiratory motion data of a patient2) calculation of a trajectory matrix representing normal time-series feature3) real-time monitoring and calculation of a trajectory matrix of real-time data.4) calculation of an anomaly score from the similarity of the two feature matrices. Patient motion was observed by a marker-less tracking system using a depthmore » camera. Results: Two types of motion e.g. cough and sudden stop of breathing were successfully detected in our real-time application. Conclusion: Automatic anomaly detection of respiratory motion using singular spectrum analysis was successful in the cough and sudden stop of breathing. The clinical use of this algorithm will be very hopeful. This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 15K08703.« less

3D gravimetric investigation of the Cerro do Jarau structure, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giacomini, Bruno B.; Leite, Emilson P.; Crósta, Alvaro P.

2017-04-01

The Cerro do Jarau structure is possibly the third Brazilian basaltic crater formed in continental flood basalt of the Serra Geral Formation, Paraná Basin, a large igneous province (LIP) in southern Brazil. It is a nearly circular landform with a diameter of approximately 13 km that rises 200 m above the plains of the "pampas" in southern Brazil. In this work, Bouguer anomalies were calculated from gravity accelerations measured on the area of this structure. The residual Bouguer map shows a strong positive anomaly trending NE-SW, located in the northeastern part of the structure, a feature not commonly associated with impact structures. However, the negative anomaly present in its center and the circular positive anomaly surrounding the central portion are typical of impact structures. The residual Bouguer anomaly varies from -2 mGal to 8 mGal. The positive circular anomaly is not spatially coincident with the rim of the structure. Based on the interpretation of our gravimetric data, the estimated diameter of the structure is 12 km and the central portion has a diameter of approximately 5 km, both slightly smaller than previously suggested. The Bouguer anomaly map was inverted into a 3D density model using a constrained inversion method with a maximum density contrast of 0.5 g cm-3. This model was interpreted to associate densities with rock types, resulting in a geological model. This geological model is in accordance with the meteorite impact nature of Cerro do Jarau.

Geochemical constraints on the origin of Doushantuo cap carbonates in the Yangtze Gorges area, South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qinxian; Lin, Zhijia; Chen, Duofu

2014-05-01

Marinoan cap carbonates have been suggested to be primarily deposited in glacial meltwater and upwelled seawater. However, elemental geochemistry evidence for this depositional model is lacking. Here, we report high-spatial-resolution measurements of major, trace and rare earth elements of the Doushantuo cap carbonates from the Jiulongwan section in the Yangtze Gorges area, South China. Our results show that: 1) the basal cap carbonates display slight MREE enrichment, weak positive La anomalies, near-chondritic Y/Ho ratios, and slight negative Ce anomalies; 2) the lower-middle cap carbonates show slight LREE depletion or MREE enrichment, weak positive La and Eu anomalies, supra-chondritic Y/Ho ratios, and slight negative Ce anomalies; 3) the upper-middle cap carbonates have consistent enrichment of P, Fe, and trace metals, slight LREE depletion, and weak positive Ce, La and Eu anomalies; and 4) the upper cap carbonates exhibit LREE enrichment, weak positive La and Eu anomalies, supra-chondritic Y/Ho ratios, and mild negative Ce anomalies. These findings indicate that the Doushantuo cap carbonates did not precipitate from normal contemporaneous seawater, rather, the basal cap carbonates were deposited in oxygenated, relatively pure deglacial meltwater; the lower-middle cap carbonates in oxygenated brackish water; the upper-middle cap carbonates in upwelled anoxic brine water; and the upper cap carbonates in oxygenated brackish water. Our depositional model is consistent with the proposed sequence of events after the meltdown of Marinoan glaciation by Shields (2005).

Moisture dynamics of the northward and eastward propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations: possible role of tropical Indo-west Pacific SST and circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pillai, Prasanth A.; Sahai, A. K.

2016-08-01

Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) has complex spatial structure due to the co-existence of equatorial eastward and off-equatorial northward propagation in the equatorial Indian Ocean. As a result, equatorial Indian Ocean convection has simultaneous northward and eastward (NE), northward only (N-only) and eastward only (E-only) propagations. It is well established that the convection propagates in the direction of increasing moist static energy (MSE). The moisture and MSE budget analysis reveals that the horizontal advection of anomalous MSE contributes to positive MSE tendency, which is in agreement with the horizontal advection of column integrated moisture anomaly. Northward movement of warm SST and the anomalous moisture advected by zonal wind are the major initiative for the northward propagation of convection from the equatorial Indian Ocean in both NE and N-only category. At the same time warm SST anomaly in the equatorial west Pacific along with moisture advection caused by anomalous meridional wind is important for the equatorial eastward branch of NE propagation. As these anomalies in the west Pacific moves northward, equatorial Indian Ocean convection establishes over the equatorial west Pacific. The absence of these processes confines the BSISO in northward direction for N-only category. In the case of E-only movement, warm SST anomaly and moisture advection by zonal component of wind causes the eastward propagation of convection. Boundary layer moisture convergence always remains east of convection center in E-only propagation, while it coincides with convection centre in other two categories. Thus the present study concludes that the difference in underlying SST and atmospheric circulation in tropical Indo-west Pacific oceanic regions encourage the differential propagation of BSISO convection through moisture dynamics.

Atmospheric Ozone Response to the Disrupted 2015-2016 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kramarova, N. A.; Tweedy, O. V.; Strahan, S. E.; Newman, P. A.; Coy, L.; Randel, W. J.; Park, M.; Waugh, D. W.; Frith, S.

2017-01-01

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) - a quasi-periodic alternation between easterly and westerly zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere - is a main driver of inter-annual ozone variability in the stratosphere. During the late-2015 through 2016 time period, the QBO experienced a major disruption unlike any observed since wind measurements began in 1953. We examined the ozone response to this QBO disruption using profile ozone measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler and total column measurements from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) Merged Ozone Data Set (MOD). Positive anomalies in stratospheric equatorial O3 developed between 50 and 30 hPa in May-September of 2016, and negative ozone anomalies were observed in the subtropics of both hemispheres. As a consequence of this QBO disruption, extratropical total ozone values during the spring-summer 2016 were at or near seasonal record lows over the more than 40 years of the total ozone record, resulting in an increase of surface UV index during northern hemisphere summer. We found very consistent responses in all considered ozone observations in terms of time, amplitude and spatial patterns. We will show the ozone changes associated with this disrupted QBO throughout the winter and spring 2017.

Large-scale vegetation responses to terrestrial moisture storage changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrew, Robert L.; Guan, Huade; Batelaan, Okke

2017-09-01

The normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) is a useful tool for studying vegetation activity and ecosystem performance at a large spatial scale. In this study we use the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) total water storage (TWS) estimates to examine temporal variability of the NDVI across Australia. We aim to demonstrate a new method that reveals the moisture dependence of vegetation cover at different temporal resolutions. Time series of monthly GRACE TWS anomalies are decomposed into different temporal frequencies using a discrete wavelet transform and analysed against time series of the NDVI anomalies in a stepwise regression. The results show that combinations of different frequencies of decomposed GRACE TWS data explain NDVI temporal variations better than raw GRACE TWS alone. Generally, the NDVI appears to be more sensitive to interannual changes in water storage than shorter changes, though grassland-dominated areas are sensitive to higher-frequencies of water-storage changes. Different types of vegetation, defined by areas of land use type, show distinct differences in how they respond to the changes in water storage, which is generally consistent with our physical understanding. This unique method provides useful insight into how the NDVI is affected by changes in water storage at different temporal scales across land use types.

Mantle Flow in the Western United States Constrained by Seismic Anisotropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niday, W.; Humphreys, E.

2017-12-01

Shear wave splitting, caused by the lattice preferred orientation (LPO) of olivine crystals under shear deformation, provide a useful constraint on numerical models of mantle flow. Although it is sometimes assumed that shear wave splitting fast directions correspond with mantle flow directions, this is only true in simple shear flows that do not vary strongly with space or time. Observed shear wave splitting in the western United States is complex and inconsistent with simple shear driven by North American and Pacific plate motion, suggesting that the effects of time-dependent subduction history and spatial heterogeneity are important. Liu and Stegman (2011) reproduce the pattern of fast seismic anomalies below the western US from Farallon subduction history, and Chaparro and Stegman (2017) reproduce the circular anisotropy field below the Great Basin. We extend this to consider anisotropic structure outside the Great Basin and evaluate the density and viscosity of seismic anomalies such as slabs and Yellowstone. We use the mantle convection code ASPECT to simulate 3D buoyancy-driven flow in the mantle below the western US, and predict LPO using the modeled flow fields. We present results from a suite of models varying the sub-lithospheric structures of the western US and constraints on density and viscosity variations in the upper mantle.

Analysis of SSEM Sensor Data Using BEAM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zak, Michail; Park, Han; James, Mark

2004-01-01

A report describes analysis of space shuttle main engine (SSME) sensor data using Beacon-based Exception Analysis for Multimissions (BEAM) [NASA Tech Briefs articles, the two most relevant being Beacon-Based Exception Analysis for Multimissions (NPO- 20827), Vol. 26, No.9 (September 2002), page 32 and Integrated Formulation of Beacon-Based Exception Analysis for Multimissions (NPO- 21126), Vol. 27, No. 3 (March 2003), page 74] for automated detection of anomalies. A specific implementation of BEAM, using the Dynamical Invariant Anomaly Detector (DIAD), is used to find anomalies commonly encountered during SSME ground test firings. The DIAD detects anomalies by computing coefficients of an autoregressive model and comparing them to expected values extracted from previous training data. The DIAD was trained using nominal SSME test-firing data. DIAD detected all the major anomalies including blade failures, frozen sense lines, and deactivated sensors. The DIAD was particularly sensitive to anomalies caused by faulty sensors and unexpected transients. The system offers a way to reduce SSME analysis time and cost by automatically indicating specific time periods, signals, and features contributing to each anomaly. The software described here executes on a standard workstation and delivers analyses in seconds, a computing time comparable to or faster than the test duration itself, offering potential for real-time analysis.

Prospects for seasonal forecasting of summer drought and low river flow anomalies in England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wedgbrow, C. S.; Wilby, R. L.; Fox, H. R.; O'Hare, G.

2002-02-01

Future climate change scenarios suggest enhanced temporal and spatial gradients in water resources across the UK. Provision of seasonal forecast statistics for surface climate variables could alleviate some negative effects of climate change on water resource infrastructure. This paper presents a preliminary investigation of spatial and temporal relationships between large-scale North Atlantic climatic indices, drought severity and river flow anomalies in England and Wales. Potentially useful predictive relationships are explored between winter indices of the Polar-Eurasian (POL) teleconnection pattern, the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), and the summer Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and reconstructed river flows in England and Wales. Correlation analyses, coherence testing and an index of forecast potential, demonstrate that preceding winter values of the POL index, SSTA (and to a lesser extent the NAO), provide indications of summer and early autumn drought severity and river flow anomalies in parts of northwest, southwest and southeast England. Correlation analyses demonstrate that positive winter anomalies of T1, POL index and NAO index are associated with negative PDSI (i.e. drought) across eastern parts of the British Isles in summer (r < 0.51). Coherence tests show that a positive winter SSTA (1871-1995) and POL index (1950-95) have preceded below-average summer river flows in the northwest and southwest of England and Wales in 70 to 100% of summers. The same rivers have also experienced below-average flows during autumn following negative winter phases of the NAO index in 64 to 93% of summers (1865-1995). Possible explanations for the predictor-predictand relationships are considered, including the memory of groundwater, and ocean-atmosphere coupling, and regional manifestations of synoptic rainfall processes. However, further research is necessary to increase the number of years and predictor variables from which it is possible to derive rules that may be useful for forecasting.

Recent Climate Variability in Antarctica from Satellite-derived Temperature Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schneider, David P.; Steig, Eric J.; Comiso, Josefino C.

2004-01-01

Recent Antarctic climate variability on month-to-month to interannual time scales is assessed through joint analysis of surface temperatures from satellite thermal infrared observations (T(sub IR)) and passive microwave brightness temperatures (T(sub B)). Although Tw data are limited to clear-sky conditions and T(sub B) data are a product of the temperature and emissivity of the upper approx. 1m of snow, the two data sets share significant covariance. This covariance is largely explained by three empirical modes, which illustrate the spatial and temporal variability of Antarctic surface temperatures. T(sub B) variations are damped compared to TIR variations, as determined by the period of the temperature forcing and the microwave emission depth; however, microwave emissivity does not vary significantly in time. Comparison of the temperature modes with Southern Hemisphere (SH) 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies demonstrates that Antarctic temperature anomalies are predominantly controlled by the principal patterns of SH atmospheric circulation. The leading surface temperature mode strongly correlates with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in geopotential height. The second temperature mode reflects the combined influences of the zonal wavenumber-3 and Pacific South American (PSA) patterns in 500-hPa height on month-to-month timescales. ENSO variability projects onto this mode on interannual timescales, but is not by itself a good predictor of Antarctic temperature anomalies. The third temperature mode explains winter warming trends, which may be caused by blocking events, over a large region of the East Antarctic plateau. These results help to place recent climate changes in the context of Antarctica's background climate variability and will aid in the interpretation of ice core paleoclimate records.

Modeling Seasonal Thermal Radiance Cycles for Change Detection at Volcanic / Geothermal Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, R.; Beuttel, B. S.

2013-12-01

Remote sensing observations of thermal features associated with (and often preceding) volcanic activity have been used for decades to detect and monitor volcanism. However, anomalous thermal precursors to volcanic eruptions are usually only recognized retrospectively. One of the reasons for this is that precursor thermal activity is often too subtle in magnitude (spatially, temporally, or in absolute temperature) to be unambiguously detected in time to issue warnings or forecasts. Part of the reason for this is the trade-off between high spatial and high temporal resolution associated with satellite imaging systems. Thus, the goal of this work has been to develop some techniques for using high-temporal-resolution, coarse-spatial-resolution imagery to try to detect subtle thermal anomalies. To identify anomalies, background thermal activity must first be characterized. Every active, or potentially active, volcano has a unique thermal history that provides information about normal background thermal activity due to seasonal or diurnal variations. Understanding these normal variations allows recognition of anomalous activity that may be due to volcanic / hydrothermal processes - ultimately with a lead time that may be sufficient to issue eruption warnings or forecasts. Archived MODIS data, acquired ~daily from 2000 to 2012, were used to investigate seasonal thermal cycles at three volcanic areas with different types of thermal features: Mount St. Helens, which had a dacite dome-building eruption from 2004-2008; Mount Ruapehu, which has a 500-m diameter active summit crater lake; and Yellowstone, which is a large active geothermal system that has hundreds of hot springs and fumarole fields spread out over a very large area. The focus has been on using MODIS 1-km sensor radiance data in the MIR and TIR wavelength regions that are sensitive to thermal emission from features that range in temperature from hundreds of °C, down to tens of °C (below the boiling temperature of water). To detect such features it is best to use data acquired at night, as this maximizes the delta T between the thermal target and non-thermal background and minimizes the effects of the Sun. Decadal time-series plots of nighttime MODIS sensor radiance data over the target areas show that seasonal thermal cycles due to varying solar incidence angle can be modeled with a sine function and removed to reveal subtle changes in TIR radiance. The seasonal sine function is unique to each volcanic / geothermal area and can be modeled iteratively using a least squares fit to the cloud of radiance data. The sine function model can also be used to generate a first-order cloud cover approximation for the nighttime TIR data. This work helps establish a framework for improved thermal alarm algorithms, automated thermal detection methods, and operational monitoring techniques for active, or potentially active, volcanoes throughout the world. This type of background study is a step toward establishing a global volcanic eruption forecasting system using satellite-based remote sensing data that are sensitive to subtle precursor thermal anomalies.

Anomaly clustering in hyperspectral images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doster, Timothy J.; Ross, David S.; Messinger, David W.; Basener, William F.

2009-05-01

The topological anomaly detection algorithm (TAD) differs from other anomaly detection algorithms in that it uses a topological/graph-theoretic model for the image background instead of modeling the image with a Gaussian normal distribution. In the construction of the model, TAD produces a hard threshold separating anomalous pixels from background in the image. We build on this feature of TAD by extending the algorithm so that it gives a measure of the number of anomalous objects, rather than the number of anomalous pixels, in a hyperspectral image. This is done by identifying, and integrating, clusters of anomalous pixels via a graph theoretical method combining spatial and spectral information. The method is applied to a cluttered HyMap image and combines small groups of pixels containing like materials, such as those corresponding to rooftops and cars, into individual clusters. This improves visualization and interpretation of objects.

The Detection of Change in the Arctic Using Satellite and Buoy Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Yang, J.; Honjo, S.; Krishfield, R.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The decade of the 1990s is the warmest decade of the last century while the year 1998 is the warmest year ever observed by modern techniques with 9 out of 12 months of the year being the warmest month. Since the Arctic is expected to provide early signals of a possible warming scenario, detailed examination of changes in the Arctic environment is important. In this study, we examined available satellite ice cover and surface temperature data, wind and pressure data, and ocean hydrographic data to gain insights into the warming phenomenon. The areas of open water in both western and eastern regions of the Arctic were found to follow a cyclical pattern with approximately decadal period but with a lag of about three years between the two regions. The pattern was interrupted by unusually large anomalies in open water area in the western region in 1993 and 1998 and in the eastern region in 1995. The big 1998 open water anomaly occurred at the same time when a large surface temperature anomaly was also occurring in the area and adjacent regions. The infrared temperature data show for the first time the complete spatial scope of the warming anomalies and it is apparent that despite the magnitude of the 1998 anomaly, it is basically confined to North America and the Western Arctic. The large increases in open water areas in the Western Sector form 1996 to 1998 were observed to be coherent with changing wind directions which was predominantly cyclonic in 1996 and anti-cyclonic in 1997 and 1998. Detailed hydrography measurements up to 500 m depth over the same general area in April 1996 and April 1997 also indicate significant freshening and warming in the upper part of the mixed layer suggesting increases in ice melt. Continuous ocean temperature and salinity data from ocean buoys confirm this result and show significant seasonal changes from 1996 to 1998, at depths of 8 m, 45 m, and 75 m. Long data records of temperature and hydrography were also examined and the potential impact of a warming, freshening, and the presence of abnormally large open areas on the state of the Arctic climate system are discussed.

Implications of new gravity data for Baikal Rift zone structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruppel, C.; Kogan, M. G.; Mcnutt, M. K.

1993-01-01

Newly available, 2D Bouguer gravity anomaly data from the Baikal Rift zone, Siberia, indicate that this discrete, intracontinental rift system is regionally compensated by an elastic plate about 50 km thick. However, spectral and spatial domain analyses and isostatic anomaly calculations show that simple elastic plate theory does not offer an adequate explanation for compensation in the rift zone, probably because of significant lateral variations in plate strength and the presence of subsurface loads. Our results and other geophysical observations support the interpretation that the Baikal Rift zone is colder than either the East African or Rio Grande rift.

Tropical Forest Backscatter Anomaly Evident in SeaWinds Scatterometer Morning Overpass Data During 2005 Drought in Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolking, S. E.; Milliman, T.; Palace, M. W.; Wisser, D.; Lammers, R. B.; Fahnestock, M. A.

2010-12-01

A severe drought occurred in many portions of Amazonia in the dry season (June-September) of 2005. We analyzed ten years (7/99-10/09) of SeaWinds active microwave Ku-band backscatter data collected over the Amazon Basin, developing a monthly climatology and monthly anomalies from that climatology in an effort to detect landscape responses to this drought. We compared these to seasonal accumulating water deficit anomalies generated using Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data (1999-2009) and 100 mm/mo evapotranspirative demand as a water deficit threshold. There was significant interannual variability in monthly mean backscatter only for ascending (early morning) overpass data, and little interannual variability in monthly mean backscatter for descending (late afternoon) overpass data. Strong negative anomalies in both ascending-overpass backscatter and accumulating water deficit developed during July-October 2005, centered on the southwestern Amazon Basin (Acre and western Amazonas states in Brazil; Madre de Dios state in Peru; Pando state in Bolivia). During the 2005 drought, there was a strong spatial correlation between morning overpass backscatter anomalies and water deficit anomalies. We hypothesize that as the drought persisted over several months, the forest canopy was increasingly unable to recover full leaf moisture content over night, and the early morning overpass backscatter data became anomalously low. This is the first reporting of tropical wet forest seasonal drought detection by active microwave scatterometry.

A global algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDougall, T. J.; Jackett, D. R.; Millero, F. J.; Pawlowicz, R.; Barker, P. M.

2012-12-01

The International Thermodynamic Equation of Seawater - 2010 has defined the thermodynamic properties of seawater in terms of a new salinity variable, Absolute Salinity, which takes into account the spatial variation of the composition of seawater. Absolute Salinity more accurately reflects the effects of the dissolved material in seawater on the thermodynamic properties (particularly density) than does Practical Salinity. When a seawater sample has standard composition (i.e. the ratios of the constituents of sea salt are the same as those of surface water of the North Atlantic), Practical Salinity can be used to accurately evaluate the thermodynamic properties of seawater. When seawater is not of standard composition, Practical Salinity alone is not sufficient and the Absolute Salinity Anomaly needs to be estimated; this anomaly is as large as 0.025 g kg-1 in the northernmost North Pacific. Here we provide an algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity Anomaly for any location (x, y, p) in the world ocean. To develop this algorithm, we used the Absolute Salinity Anomaly that is found by comparing the density calculated from Practical Salinity to the density measured in the laboratory. These estimates of Absolute Salinity Anomaly however are limited to the number of available observations (namely 811). In order to provide a practical method that can be used at any location in the world ocean, we take advantage of approximate relationships between Absolute Salinity Anomaly and silicate concentrations (which are available globally).

A joint local and teleseismic tomography study of the Mississippi Embayment and New Madrid Seismic Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyamwandha, Cecilia A.; Powell, Christine A.; Langston, Charles A.

2016-05-01

Detailed, upper mantle P and S wave velocity (Vp and Vs) models are developed for the northern Mississippi Embayment (ME), a major physiographic feature in the Central United States (U.S.) and the location of the active New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). This study incorporates local earthquake and teleseismic data from the New Madrid Seismic Network, the Earthscope Transportable Array, and the FlexArray Northern Embayment Lithospheric Experiment stations. The Vp and Vs solutions contain anomalies with similar magnitudes and spatial distributions. High velocities are present in the lower crust beneath the NMSZ. A pronounced low-velocity anomaly of ~ -3%--5% is imaged at depths of 100-250 km. High-velocity anomalies of ~ +3%-+4% are observed at depths of 80-160 km and are located along the sides and top of the low-velocity anomaly. The low-velocity anomaly is attributed to the presence of hot fluids upwelling from a flat slab segment stalled in the transition zone below the Central U.S.; the thinned and weakened ME lithosphere, still at slightly higher temperatures from the passage of the Bermuda hotspot in mid-Cretaceous, provides an optimal pathway for the ascent of the fluids. The observed high-velocity anomalies are attributed to the presence of mafic rocks emplaced beneath the ME during initial rifting in the early Paleozoic and to remnants of the depleted, lower portion of the lithosphere.

Firefly Algorithm in detection of TEC seismo-ionospheric anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhoondzadeh, Mehdi

2015-07-01

Anomaly detection in time series of different earthquake precursors is an essential introduction to create an early warning system with an allowable uncertainty. Since these time series are more often non linear, complex and massive, therefore the applied predictor method should be able to detect the discord patterns from a large data in a short time. This study acknowledges Firefly Algorithm (FA) as a simple and robust predictor to detect the TEC (Total Electron Content) seismo-ionospheric anomalies around the time of the some powerful earthquakes including Chile (27 February 2010), Varzeghan (11 August 2012) and Saravan (16 April 2013). Outstanding anomalies were observed 7 and 5 days before the Chile and Varzeghan earthquakes, respectively and also 3 and 8 days prior to the Saravan earthquake.

Assessing ionospheric activity by long time series of GNSS signals: the search of possible connection with seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galeandro, Angelo; Mancini, Francesco; De Giglio, Michaela; Barbarella, Maurizio

2014-05-01

The modifications of some atmospheric physical properties prior to a high magnitude earthquake were recently debated in the frame of the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere (LAI) Coupling model. Among this variety of phenomena, the ionization of air at the ionospheric levels due to leaking of gases from earth crust through the analysis of long time series of GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) signals was investigated in this work. Several authors used the dispersive properties of the ionospheric strata towards the GNSS signals to detect possible ionospheric anomalies over areas affected by earthquakes and some evidences were encountered. However, the spatial scale and temporal domains over which such disturbances come into evidence is still a controversial item. Furthermore, the correspondence by chance between ionospheric disturbances and relevant seismic activity is even more difficult to model whenever the reference time period and spatial extent of investigation are confined. Problems could also arise from phenomena due to solar activity (now at culmination within the 11 years-long solar cycle) because such global effects could reduce the ability to detect disturbances at regional or local spatial scale. In this work, two case studies were investigated. The first one focuses on the M = 6.3 earthquake occurred on April 6, 2009, close to the city of L'Aquila (Abruzzo, Italy). The second concerns the M = 5.9 earthquake occurred on May 20, 2012, between the cities of Ferrara and Modena (Emilia Romagna, Italy). To investigate possible connections between the ionospheric activity and seismicity for such events, a five-year (2008-2012) long series of high resolution ionospheric maps was used. These maps were produced by authors from GNSS data collected by permanent stations uniformly distributed around the epicenters and allowed to assess the ionospheric activity through the analysis of the TEC (Total Electron Content). To avoid the influence of solar activity, only nighttime hours were considered. Moreover, to de?ne the temporal domain of potential ionospheric disturbances and separate local from global effects, results from local observations were compared with regional TEC series. The whole analysis shows episodes where anomalies in the ionospheric activity were detected in the vicinity of the mentioned shocks. However, their statistical significance and the temporal correlation with seismic activity are still controversial.

Revised estimation of 550-km times 550-km mean gravity anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williamson, M. R.

1977-01-01

The calculation of 550-km x 550-km mean gravity anomalies from 1 degree x 1 degree mean free-air gravimetry data is discussed. The block estimate procedure developed by Kaula is used to obtain 1,504 of the 1,654 possible mean block anomalies. The estimated block anomalies calculated from 1 deg x 1 deg mean anomalies referred to the reference ellipsoid and from 1 degree x 1 degree mean anomalies referred to a 24th-degree-and-order field are compared.

Ionospheric Anomalies of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake with Multiple Observations during Magnetic Storm Phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yang

2017-04-01

Ionospheric anomalies linked with devastating earthquakes have been widely investigated by scientists. It was confirmed that GNSS TECs suffered from drastically increase or decrease in some diurnal periods prior to the earthquakes. Liu et al (2008) applied a TECs anomaly calculation method to analyze M>=5.9 earthquakes in Indonesia and found TECs decadence within 2-7 days prior to the earthquakes. Nevertheless, strong TECs enhancement was observed before M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake (Zhao et al 2008). Moreover, the ionospheric plasma critical frequency (foF2) has been found diminished before big earthquakes (Pulinets et al 1998; Liu et al 2006). But little has been done regarding ionospheric irregularities and its association with earthquake. Still it is difficult to understand real mechanism between ionospheric anomalies activities and its precursor for the huge earthquakes. The M9.0 Tohoku earthquake, happened on 11 March 2011, at 05:46 UT time, was recognized as one of the most dominant events in related research field (Liu et al 2011). A median geomagnetic disturbance also occurred accompanied with the earthquake, which makes the ionospheric anomalies activities more sophisticated to study. Seismic-ionospheric disturbance was observed due to the drastic activities of earth. To further address the phenomenon, this paper investigates different categories of ionospheric anomalies induced by seismology activity, with multiple data sources. Several GNSS ground data were chosen along epicenter from IGS stations, to discuss the spatial-temporal correlations of ionospheric TECs in regard to the distance of epicenter. We also apply GIM TEC maps due to its global coverage to find diurnal differences of ionospheric anomalies compared with geomagnetic quiet day in the same month. The results in accordance with Liu's conclusions that TECs depletion occurred at days quite near the earthquake day, however the variation of TECs has special regulation contrast to the normal quiet days. Associated with geomagnetic storm at similar time, radio occultation data provided by COSMIC were deeply investigated within the whole month. It's quite different that the storm or earthquake didn't trigger scintillation burst. This is probably due to the storm occurrence local time was in noon sector, which has little impact on ionospheric irregularities increase, but help to enhance the effect of westward electricity, which on the other hand diminishes scintillation bubbles (Li et al 2008). A small geomagnetic disturbance was also found almost a week prior to the earthquake, the relationship of this event to the major earthquake is worth further discussion. Similar analysis of GNSS TECs have been done, the results indicated that it can be also referred as precursor to the major earthquake. Li G, Ning B, Zhao B, et al. Effects of geomagnetic storm on GPS ionospheric scintillations at Sanya[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2008, 70(7):1034-1045. Liu J Y, Chen Y I, Chuo Y J, et al. A statistical investigation of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomaly[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2006, 111(A5). Liu J Y, Sun Y Y. Seismo-traveling ionospheric disturbances of ionograms observed during the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake[J]. Earth, Planets and Space, 2011, 63(7):897-902. Zhao B, Wang M, Yu T, et al. Is an unusual large enhancement of ionospheric electron density linked with the 2008 great Wenchuan earthquake?[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2008, 113(A11):A11304. Pulinets S A. Seismic activity as a source of the ionospheric variability [J]. Advances in Space Research, 1998, 22(6):903-906.

Complex Networks Dynamics Based on Events-Phase Synchronization and Intensity Correlation Applied to The Anomaly Patterns and Extremes in The Tropical African Climate System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oluoch, K.; Marwan, N.; Trauth, M.; Loew, A.; Kurths, J.

2012-04-01

The African continent lie almost entirely within the tropics and as such its (tropical) climate systems are predominantly governed by the heterogeneous, spatial and temporal variability of the Hadley and Walker circulations. The variabilities in these meridional and zonal circulations lead to intensification or suppression of the intensities, durations and frequencies of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ICTZ) migration, trade winds and subtropical high-pressure regions and the continental monsoons. The above features play a central role in determining the African rainfall spatial and temporal variability patterns. The current understanding of these climate features and their influence on the rainfall patterns is not sufficiently understood. Like many real-world systems, atmospheric-oceanic processes exhibit non-linear properties that can be better explored using non-linear (NL) methods of time-series analysis. Over the recent years, the complex network approach has evolved as a powerful new player in understanding spatio-temporal dynamics and evolution of complex systems. Together with NL techniques, it is continuing to find new applications in many areas of science and technology including climate research. We would like to use these two powerful methods to understand the spatial structure and dynamics of African rainfall anomaly patterns and extremes. The method of event synchronization (ES) developed by Quiroga et al., 2002 and first applied to climate networks by Malik et al., 2011 looks at correlations with a dynamic time lag and as such, it is a more intuitive way to correlate a complex and heterogeneous system like climate networks than a fixed time delay most commonly used. On the other hand, the short comings of ES is its lack of vigorous test statistics for the significance level of the correlations, and the fact that only the events' time indices are synchronized while all information about how the relative intensities propagate within network framework is lost. The new method we present is motivated by the ES and borrows ideas from signal processing where a signal is represented by its intensity and frequency. Even though the anomaly signals are not periodic, the idea of phase synchronization is not far fetched. It brings into one umbrella, the traditionally known linear Intensity correlation methods like Pearson correlation, spear-man's rank or non-linear ones like mutual information with the ES for non-linear temporal synchronization. The intensity correlation is only performed where there is a temporal synchronization. The former just measures how constant the intensity differences are. In other words, how monotonic are the two functions. The overall measure of correlation and synchronization is the product of the two coefficients. Complex networks constructed by this technique has all the advantages inherent in each of the techniques it borrows. But, it is more superior and able to uncover many known and unknown dynamical features in rainfall field or any variable of interest. The main aim of this work is to develop a method that can identify the footprints of coherent or incoherent structures within the ICTZ, the African and the Indian monsoons and the ENSO signal on the tropical African continent and their temporal evolution.

SEISMIC DISCRIMINATION OF THERMAL AND MAGNETIC ANOMALIES IN SUNSPOT UMBRAE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lindsey, C.; Cally, P. S.; Rempel, M.

2010-08-20

Efforts to model sunspots based on helioseismic signatures need to discriminate between the effects of (1) a strong magnetic field that introduces time-irreversible, vantage-dependent phase shifts, apparently connected to fast- and slow-mode coupling and wave absorption and (2) a thermal anomaly that includes cool gas extending an indefinite depth beneath the photosphere. Helioseismic observations of sunspots show travel times considerably reduced with respect to equivalent quiet-Sun signatures. Simulations by Moradi and Cally of waves skipping across sunspots with photospheric magnetic fields of order 3 kG show travel times that respond strongly to the magnetic field and relatively weakly to themore » thermal anomaly by itself. We note that waves propagating vertically in a vertical magnetic field are relatively insensitive to the magnetic field, while remaining highly responsive to the attendant thermal anomaly. Travel-time measurements for waves with large skip distances into the centers of axially symmetric sunspots are therefore a crucial resource for discrimination of the thermal anomaly beneath sunspot umbrae from the magnetic anomaly. One-dimensional models of sunspot umbrae based on compressible-radiative-magnetic-convective simulations such as by Rempel et al. can be fashioned to fit observed helioseismic travel-time spectra in the centers of sunspot umbrae. These models are based on cooling of the upper 2-4 Mm of the umbral subphotosphere with no significant anomaly beneath 4.5 Mm. The travel-time reductions characteristic of these models are primarily a consequence of a Wilson depression resulting from a strong downward buoyancy of the cooled umbral medium.« less

An Optimized Method to Detect BDS Satellites' Orbit Maneuvering and Anomalies in Real-Time.

PubMed

Huang, Guanwen; Qin, Zhiwei; Zhang, Qin; Wang, Le; Yan, Xingyuan; Wang, Xiaolei

2018-02-28

The orbital maneuvers of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Constellations will decrease the performance and accuracy of positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT). Because satellites in the Chinese BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) are in Geostationary Orbit (GEO) and Inclined Geosynchronous Orbit (IGSO), maneuvers occur more frequently. Also, the precise start moment of the BDS satellites' orbit maneuvering cannot be obtained by common users. This paper presented an improved real-time detecting method for BDS satellites' orbit maneuvering and anomalies with higher timeliness and higher accuracy. The main contributions to this improvement are as follows: (1) instead of the previous two-steps method, a new one-step method with higher accuracy is proposed to determine the start moment and the pseudo random noise code (PRN) of the satellite orbit maneuvering in that time; (2) BDS Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) orbital maneuvers are firstly detected according to the proposed selection strategy for the stations; and (3) the classified non-maneuvering anomalies are detected by a new median robust method using the weak anomaly detection factor and the strong anomaly detection factor. The data from the Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX) in 2017 was used for experimental analysis. The experimental results and analysis showed that the start moment of orbital maneuvers and the period of non-maneuver anomalies can be determined more accurately in real-time. When orbital maneuvers and anomalies occur, the proposed method improved the data utilization for 91 and 95 min in 2017.

An Optimized Method to Detect BDS Satellites’ Orbit Maneuvering and Anomalies in Real-Time

PubMed Central

Huang, Guanwen; Qin, Zhiwei; Zhang, Qin; Wang, Le; Yan, Xingyuan; Wang, Xiaolei

2018-01-01

The orbital maneuvers of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Constellations will decrease the performance and accuracy of positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT). Because satellites in the Chinese BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) are in Geostationary Orbit (GEO) and Inclined Geosynchronous Orbit (IGSO), maneuvers occur more frequently. Also, the precise start moment of the BDS satellites’ orbit maneuvering cannot be obtained by common users. This paper presented an improved real-time detecting method for BDS satellites’ orbit maneuvering and anomalies with higher timeliness and higher accuracy. The main contributions to this improvement are as follows: (1) instead of the previous two-steps method, a new one-step method with higher accuracy is proposed to determine the start moment and the pseudo random noise code (PRN) of the satellite orbit maneuvering in that time; (2) BDS Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) orbital maneuvers are firstly detected according to the proposed selection strategy for the stations; and (3) the classified non-maneuvering anomalies are detected by a new median robust method using the weak anomaly detection factor and the strong anomaly detection factor. The data from the Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX) in 2017 was used for experimental analysis. The experimental results and analysis showed that the start moment of orbital maneuvers and the period of non-maneuver anomalies can be determined more accurately in real-time. When orbital maneuvers and anomalies occur, the proposed method improved the data utilization for 91 and 95 min in 2017. PMID:29495638

Beach response dynamics of a littoral cell using a 17-year single-point time series of sand thickness

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnard, P.L.; Hubbard, D.M.; Dugan, J.E.

2012-01-01

A 17-year time series of near-daily sand thickness measurements at a single intertidal location was compared with 5. years of semi-annual 3-dimensional beach surveys at the same beach, and at two other beaches within the same littoral cell. The daily single point measurements correlated extremely well with the mean beach elevation and shoreline position of ten high-spatial resolution beach surveys. Correlations were statistically significant at all spatial scales, even for beach surveys 10s of kilometers downcoast, and therefore variability at the single point monitoring site was representative of regional coastal behavior, allowing us to examine nearly two decades of continuous coastal evolution. The annual cycle of beach oscillations dominated the signal, typical of this region, with additional, less intense spectral peaks associated with seasonal wave energy fluctuations (~. 45 to 90. days), as well as full lunar (~. 29. days) and semi-lunar (~. 13. days; spring-neap cycle) tidal cycles. Sand thickness variability was statistically linked to wave energy with a 2. month peak lag, as well as the average of the previous 7-8. months of wave energy. Longer term anomalies in sand thickness were also apparent on time scales up to 15. months. Our analyses suggest that spatially-limited morphological data sets can be extremely valuable (with robust validation) for understanding the details of beach response to wave energy over timescales that are not resolved by typical survey intervals, as well as the regional behavior of coastal systems. ?? 2011.

4.4 Development of a 30-Year Soil Moisture Climatology for Situational Awareness and Public Health Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; White, Kristopher D.; Bell, Jesse E.

2015-01-01

This paper provided a brief background on the work being done at NASA SPoRT and the CDC to create a soil moisture climatology over the CONUS at high spatial resolution, and to provide a valuable source of soil moisture information to the CDC for monitoring conditions that could favor the development of Valley Fever. The soil moisture climatology has multi-faceted applications for both the NOAA/NWS situational awareness in the areas of drought and flooding, and for the Public Health community. SPoRT plans to increase its interaction with the drought monitoring and Public Health communities by enhancing this testbed soil moisture anomaly product. This soil moisture climatology run will also serve as a foundation for upgrading the real-time (currently southeastern CONUS) SPoRT-LIS to a full CONUS domain based on LIS version 7 and incorporating real-time GVF data from the Suomi-NPP Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (Vargas et al. 2013) into LIS-Noah. The upgraded SPoRT-LIS run will serve as a testbed proof-of-concept of a higher-resolution NLDAS-2 modeling member. The climatology run will be extended to near real-time using the NLDAS-2 meteorological forcing from 2011 to present. The fixed 1981-2010 climatology shall provide the soil moisture "normals" for the production of real-time soil moisture anomalies. SPoRT also envisions a web-mapping type of service in which an end-user could put in a request for either an historical or real-time soil moisture anomaly graph for a specified county (as exemplified by Figure 2) and/or for local and regional maps of soil moisture proxy percentiles. Finally, SPoRT seeks to assimilate satellite soil moisture data from the current Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS; Blankenship et al. 2014) and the recently-launched NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP; Entekhabi et al. 2010) missions, using the EnKF capability within LIS. The 9-km combined active radar and passive microwave retrieval product from SMAP (Das et al. 2011) has the potential to provide valuable information about the near-surface soil moisture state for improving land surface modeling output.

Method for Real-Time Model Based Structural Anomaly Detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Urnes, James M., Sr. (Inventor); Smith, Timothy A. (Inventor); Reichenbach, Eric Y. (Inventor)

2015-01-01

A system and methods for real-time model based vehicle structural anomaly detection are disclosed. A real-time measurement corresponding to a location on a vehicle structure during an operation of the vehicle is received, and the real-time measurement is compared to expected operation data for the location to provide a modeling error signal. A statistical significance of the modeling error signal to provide an error significance is calculated, and a persistence of the error significance is determined. A structural anomaly is indicated, if the persistence exceeds a persistence threshold value.

Identifying Stratospheric Air Intrusions and Associated Hurricane-Force Wind Events over the North Pacific Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malloy, Kelsey; Folmer, Michael J.; Phillips, Joseph; Sienkiewicz, Joseph M.; Berndt, Emily

2017-01-01

Motivation: Ocean data is sparse: reliance on satellite imagery for marine forecasting; Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) –“mariner’s weather lifeline”. Responsible for: Pacific, Atlantic, Pacific Alaska surface analyses –24, 48, 96 hrs.; Wind & wave analyses –24, 48, 96 hrs.; Issue warnings, make decisions, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite –R Series (now GOES-16), Compared to the old GOES: 3 times spectral resolution, 4 times spatial resolution, 5 times faster coverage; Comparable to Japanese Meteorological Agency’s Himawari-8, used a lot throughout this research. Research Question: How can integrating satellite data imagery and derived products help forecasters improve prognosis of rapid cyclogenesis and hurricane-force wind events? Phase I –Identifying stratospheric air intrusions: Water Vapor –6.2, 6.9, 7.3 micron channels; Airmass RGB Product; AIRS, IASI, NUCAPS total column ozone and ozone anomaly; ASCAT (A/B) and AMSR-2 wind data.

North Atlantic Oscillation influence on the stramflows of the Iberian Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenzo-Lacruz, J.; González-Hidalgo, J. C.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; López-Moreno, J. I.

2010-09-01

"NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION INFLUENCE ON THE STREAMFLOWS OF THE IBERIAN RIVERS" LORENZO-LACRUZ, J. ¹, GONZÁLEZ-HIDALGO, J.C.², VICENTE-SERRANO, S.M. ¹, LÓPEZ-MORENO, J.I.¹ ¹Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, CSIC (Spanish Research Council), Campus de Aula Dei, P.O. Box 202, Zaragoza 50080, Spain ²Departamento de Geografía, Universidad de Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain. We analyzed the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influence on the monthly river discharges of Iberian rivers from 1945 to 2005. The study covers most of the Iberian river basins, using 187 monthly discharge series. The aim of this study is to determine the role of the variability of the NAO on the Iberian river discharges. Using the winter NAO we calculated correlations with the monthly river discharge series. We identified the positive and negative phases of the winter NAO for the period 1945-2006, and related to river discharge anomalies. Significant differences in river discharge were found between the positive and negative NAO phases with negative anomalies (dry conditions) during positive NAO periods, and positive anomalies (wet conditions) during negative NAO periods The results show a consistent and strong control of the river discharges by the winter NAO, but some spatial differences are shown, as three different domains were defined: a region under the direct influence of the NAO (central and western part of the Iberian Peninsula), a transition zone (Ebro Valley) and region free from that influence (Eastern part of the Iberian Peninsula). The spatial differences are also identified in the annual pattern of discharge anomalies. The basin characteristics, the location of the gauging stations and the human management are the possible drivers of these differences.

Method for locating underground anomalies by diffraction of electromagnetic waves passing between spaced boreholes

DOEpatents

Lytle, R. Jeffrey; Lager, Darrel L.; Laine, Edwin F.; Davis, Donald T.

1979-01-01

Underground anomalies or discontinuities, such as holes, tunnels, and caverns, are located by lowering an electromagnetic signal transmitting antenna down one borehole and a receiving antenna down another, the ground to be surveyed for anomalies being situated between the boreholes. Electronic transmitting and receiving equipment associated with the antennas is activated and the antennas are lowered in unison at the same rate down their respective boreholes a plurality of times, each time with the receiving antenna at a different level with respect to the transmitting antenna. The transmitted electromagnetic waves diffract at each edge of an anomaly. This causes minimal signal reception at the receiving antenna. Triangulation of the straight lines between the antennas for the depths at which the signal minimums are detected precisely locates the anomaly. Alternatively, phase shifts of the transmitted waves may be detected to locate an anomaly, the phase shift being distinctive for the waves directed at the anomaly.

The El Horror uranium anomaly in northeastern Sonora, Mexico: Constraints from geochemical and mineralogical approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grijalva-Rodríguez, T.; Valencia-Moreno, M.; Calmus, T.; Del Rio-Salas, R.; Balcázar-García, M.

2017-12-01

This work reviews the characteristics of the El Horror uranium prospect in northeastern Sonora, Mexico. It was formerly detected by a radiometric anomaly after airborne gamma ray exploration carried out in the 70's by the Mexican government. As a promising site to contain important uranium resources, the El Horror was re-evaluated by CFE (Federal Electricity Commission) by in situ gamma ray surveys. The study also incorporates rock and stream sediment ICP-MS geochemistry, X-ray diffraction, X-ray fluorescence, Raman spectrometry and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) to provide a better understanding of the radiometric anomaly. The results show that, instead of a single anomaly, it comprises at least five individual anomalies hosted in hydrothermally altered Laramide (80-40 Ma) andesitic volcanic rocks of the Tarahumara Formation. Concentrations for elemental uranium and uranium calculated from gamma ray surveys (i.e., equivalent uranium) are not spatially coincident within the anomaly, but, at least at some degree, they do so in specific sites. X-ray diffraction and Raman spectrometry revealed the presence of rutile/anatase, uvite, bukouvskyte and allanite as the more likely mineral phases to contain uranium. SEM studies revealed a process of iron-rich concretion formation, suggesting that uranium was initially incorporated to the system by adsorption, but was largely removed later during incorporation of Fe+3 ions. Stream sediment geochemistry reveals that the highest uranium concentrations are derived from the southern part of the Sierra La Madera batholith (∼63 Ma), and decrease toward the El Horror anomaly.

Origins and interrelationship of Intraseasonal rainfall variations around the Maritime Continent during boreal winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Xi; Wu, Renguang

2018-04-01

Large intraseasonal rainfall variations are identified over the southern South China Sea (SSCS), tropical southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO), and east coast of the Philippines (EPHI) in boreal winter. The present study contrasts origins and propagations and investigates interrelations of intraseasonal rainfall variations on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales in these regions. Different origins are identified for intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over the SSCS, SEIO, and EPHI on both time scales. On the 10-20-day time scale, strong northerly or northeasterly wind anomalies related to the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) play a major role in intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS and EPHI. On the 30-60-day time scale, both the intraseasonal signal from the tropical Indian Ocean and the EAWM-related wind anomalies contribute to intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS, whereas the EAWM-related wind anomalies have a major contribution to the intraseasonal rainfall variations over the EPHI. No relation is detected between the intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SEIO and the EAWM on both the 10-20-day and 30-60-day time scales. The anomalies associated with intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS and EPHI propagate northwestward and northeastward, respectively, on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales. The intraseasonal rainfall anomalies display northwestward and northward propagation over the Bay of Bengal, respectively, on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales.

A satellite-based drought index describing anomalies in evapotranspiration for global crop monitoring

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The utility and reliability of standard meteorological drought indices based on measurements of precipitation is limited by the spatial distribution and quality of currently available rainfall data. Furthermore, precipitation-based indices only reflect one component of the surface hydrologic cycle, ...

Spatial Patterns of Variability in Antarctic Surface Temperature: Connections to the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwok, Ron; Comiso, Josefino C.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The 17-year (1982-1998) trend in surface temperature shows a general cooling over the Antarctic continent, warming of the sea ice zone, with moderate changes over the oceans. Warming of the peripheral seas is associated with negative trends in the regional sea ice extent. Effects of the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) and the extrapolar Southern Oscillation (SO) on surface temperature are quantified through regression analysis. Positive polarities of the SAM are associated with cold anomalies over most of Antarctica, with the most notable exception of the Antarctic Peninsula. Positive temperature anomalies and ice edge retreat in the Pacific sector are associated with El Nino episodes. Over the past two decades, the drift towards high polarity in the SAM and negative polarity in the SO indices couple to produce a spatial pattern with warmer temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula and peripheral seas, and cooler temperatures over much of East Antarctica.

Revisiting the South Atlantic Anomaly after 3 years of Swarm satellite mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavón-Carrasco, F. Javier; Campuzano, Saioa A.; De Santis, Angelo

2017-04-01

Covering part of Southern America and the South Atlantic Ocean, the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) is nowadays one of the most important and largest features of the geomagnetic field at the Earth's surface. It is characterized by lower intensity values than expected for those geomagnetic latitudes. Thanks to the global geomagnetic models, the spatial and temporal geometry of the Earth's magnetic field can be defined at the core-mantle boundary, showing the origin of the SAA as a reversal polarity patch that is growing with a pronounced rate of -2.54ṡ105 nT per century and with western drift. Since the Swarm satellite mission of the European Space Agency was launched at the end of 2013, the three twin satellites are picking up the most accurate values of the geomagnetic field up to now. In this work, we use the satellite magnetic data from Swarm mission along with the observatory ground data of surrounding areas to evaluate the spatial and temporal evolution of the SAA during the Swarm-life.

Climate and southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conway, Declan; van Garderen, Emma Archer; Deryng, Delphine; Dorling, Steve; Krueger, Tobias; Landman, Willem; Lankford, Bruce; Lebek, Karen; Osborn, Tim; Ringler, Claudia; Thurlow, James; Zhu, Tingju; Dalin, Carole

2015-09-01

In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial interdependence is also high, driven, for example, by the regional extent of many climate anomalies and river basins and aquifers that span national boundaries. There is now strong evidence of the effects of individual climate anomalies, but associations between national rainfall and gross domestic product and crop production remain relatively weak. The majority of climate models project decreases in annual precipitation for southern Africa, typically by as much as 20% by the 2080s. Impact models suggest these changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies should inform policies, institutions and investments for enhancing water, energy and food security. Three key political and economic instruments could be strengthened for this purpose: the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Power Pool and trade of agricultural products amounting to significant transfers of embedded water.

The Role of Forcing and Internal Dynamics in explaining the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goossee, Hugues; Crespin, Elisabeth; Dubinkina, Svetlana; Loutre, Marie-France; Mann, Michael E.; Renssen, Hans; Shindell, Drew

2012-01-01

Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming.

Reconstructing Common Era Climate Fields Using Data Assimilation, Proxies, and a Linear Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins, W. A.; Hakim, G. J.

2016-12-01

In this work, we examine the skill of a new approach to performing climate field reconstructions (CFRs) using a form of online paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA). Many previous studies have foregone climate model forecasts during assimilation due to the computational expense of running coupled global climate models (CGCMs), and the relatively low skill of these forecasts on longer timescales. Here we greatly diminish the computational costs by employing an empirical forecast model (known as a linear inverse model; LIM), which has been shown to have comparable skill to CGCMs. CFRs of annually averaged 2m air temperature anomalies are compared between the Last Millennium Reanalysis framework (no forecasting or "offline"), a persistence forecast, and four LIM forecasting experiments over the instrumental period (1850 - 2000). We test LIM calibrations for observational (Berkeley Earth), reanalysis (20th Century Reanalysis), and CMIP5 climate model (CCSM4 and MPI) data. Generally, we find that the usage of LIM forecasts for online PDA increases reconstruction agreement with the instrumental record for both spatial and global mean temperature (GMT). The detrended GMT skill metrics show the most dramatic increases in skill with coefficient of efficiency (CE) improvements over the no-forecasting benchmark averaging 57%. LIM experiments display a common pattern of spatial field increases in CE skill over northern hemisphere land areas and in the high-latitude North Atlantic - Barents Sea corridor (Figure 1). However, the non-GCM-calibrated LIMs introduce other deficiencies into the spatial skill of these reconstructions, likely due to aspects of the LIM calibration process. Overall, the CMIP5 LIMs have the best performance when considering both spatial fields and GMT. A comparison with the persistence forecast experiment suggests that improvements are associated with the usage of the LIM forecasts, and not simple persistence of temperature anomalies over time. These results show that the use of LIM forecasting can help add further dynamical constraint to CFRs. As we move forward, this will be an important factor in fully utilizing dynamically consistent information from the proxy record while reconstructing the past millennium.

Case analyses and numerical simulation of soil thermal impacts on land surface energy budget based on an off-line land surface model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, W. D.; Sun, S. F.; Qian, Y. F.

2002-05-01

The statistical relationship between soil thermal anomaly and short-term climate change is presented based on a typical case study. Furthermore, possible physical mechanisms behind the relationship are revealed through using an off-line land surface model with a reasonable soil thermal forcing at the bottom of the soil layer. In the first experiment, the given heat flux is 5 W m(-2) at the bottom of the soil layer (in depth of 6.3 m) for 3 months, while only a positive ground temperature anomaly of 0.06degreesC can be found compared to the control run. The anomaly, however, could reach 0.65degreesC if the soil thermal conductivity was one order of magnitude larger. It could be even as large as 0.81degreesC assuming the heat flux at bottom is 10 W m(-2). Meanwhile, an increase of about 10 W m(-2) was detected both for heat flux in soil and sensible heat on land surface, which is not neglectable to the short-term climate change. The results show that considerable response in land surface energy budget could be expected when the soil thermal forcing reaches a certain spatial-temporal scale. Therefore, land surface models should not ignore the upward heat flux from the bottom of the soil layer, Moreover, integration for a longer period of time and coupled land-atmosphere model are also necessary for the better understanding of this issues.

The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.

2017-08-01

The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.

2018-06-01

The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

A compilation of mineral occurrences and the relationship of occurrences to structural elements of the Kentucky and Tennessee region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayhew, M. A.; Myers, D. M.

1984-01-01

A very prominent magnetic anomaly measured by MAGSAT over the eastern mid-continent of the United States was inferred to have a source region beneath Kentucky and Tennessee. Prominent aeromagnetic and gravity anomalies are also associated with the inferred source region. A crustal model constructed to fit these anomalies interpreted the complex as a large mafic plutonic intrusion of Precambrian age. The complex was named the Kentucky body. It was noticed that the Jessamine Dome, which is a locus of intense faulting and mineralization, occurs near the northern end of the Kentucky body, and that more generally there seemed to be a spatial relationship between mineral occurrence and the body. The relationship between mineral deposits in Kentucky and Tennessee and the Kentucky body was investigated. A compilation of mineral occurrences in the region, classified according to type and age, is presented.

Anisotropic Solar Wind Sputtering of the Lunar Surface Induced by Crustal Magnetic Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poppe, A. R.; Sarantos, M.; Halekas, J. S.; Delory, G. T.; Saito, Y.; Nishino, M.

2014-01-01

The lunar exosphere is generated by several processes each of which generates neutral distributions with different spatial and temporal variability. Solar wind sputtering of the lunar surface is a major process for many regolith-derived species and typically generates neutral distributions with a cosine dependence on solar zenith angle. Complicating this picture are remanent crustal magnetic anomalies on the lunar surface, which decelerate and partially reflect the solar wind before it strikes the surface. We use Kaguya maps of solar wind reflection efficiencies, Lunar Prospector maps of crustal field strengths, and published neutral sputtering yields to calculate anisotropic solar wind sputtering maps. We feed these maps to a Monte Carlo neutral exospheric model to explore three-dimensional exospheric anisotropies and find that significant anisotropies should be present in the neutral exosphere depending on selenographic location and solar wind conditions. Better understanding of solar wind/crustal anomaly interactions could potentially improve our results.

Preliminary Aeromagnetic Map of Joshua Tree National Park and Vicinity, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langenheim, V.E.; Hill, P.L.

2010-01-01

This aeromagnetic map of Joshua Tree National Park and vicinity is intended to promote further understanding of the geology and structure in the region by serving as a basis for geophysical interpretations and by supporting geological mapping, water-resource investigations, and various topical studies. Local spatial variations in the Earth's magnetic field (evident as anomalies on aeromagnetic maps) reflect the distribution of magnetic minerals, primarily magnetite, in the underlying rocks. In many cases the volume content of magnetic minerals can be related to rock type, and abrupt spatial changes in the amount of magnetic minerals commonly mark lithologic or structural boundaries. Bodies of mafic and ultramafic rocks tend to produce the most intense magnetic anomalies, but such generalizations must be applied with caution because rocks with more felsic compositions, or even some sedimentary units, also can cause measurable magnetic anomalies. The database includes two ASCII files containing new aeromagnetic data and two ASCII files with point locations of the local maximum horizontal gradient derived from the aeromagnetic data. This metadata file describes the horizontal gradient locations derived from new and existing aeromagnetic data. This aeromagnetic map identifies magnetic features as a basis for geophysical interpretations; the gradients help define the edges of magnetic sources. This database updates geophysical information originally presented in smaller-scale formats and includes detailed aeromagnetic data collected by EON Geosciences, Inc.

Inferring Discharge at River Mouths from Water Surface Height Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Branch, R.; Horner-Devine, A.; Chickadel, C. C.

2016-02-01

Numerical model results suggest that a relationship exists between river discharge and surface height anomalies near the mouth of rivers, which presents an opportunity to use satellite elevation data to measure discharge remotely. Here we investigate whether such a relationship can be observed in the field using airborne lidar data at the mouth of the Columbia River. Airborne Lidar data were used because current NASA altimeter data does not have high enough spatial resolution to image surface elevation along a river. NASA's Surface Water and Ocean Topography, SWOT, sensor is planned to have a spatial resolution of less than 100 m and maximum height precision of 1 cm. The magnitude and temporal duration of the elevation signal found in the lidar data will be used to determine if SWOT will have the resolution and precision capabilities to measure discharge from space. Lidar data were acquired during a range of tidal conditions and discharge rates from May through September of 2013. Our results suggest that there is a measurable surface height anomaly at the river mouth during part of the tidal cycle. A 0.7 m surface depression was found during ebb tide and a uniform surface tilt was found at slack tide. The variation of the anomaly over the tidal period presents a challenge for decoupling the tidal component from that due to the discharge.

Advancing the integration of spatial data to map human and natural drivers on coral reefs

PubMed Central

Gove, Jamison M.; Walecka, Hilary R.; Donovan, Mary K.; Williams, Gareth J.; Jouffray, Jean-Baptiste; Crowder, Larry B.; Erickson, Ashley; Falinski, Kim; Friedlander, Alan M.; Kappel, Carrie V.; Kittinger, John N.; McCoy, Kaylyn; Norström, Albert; Nyström, Magnus; Oleson, Kirsten L. L.; Stamoulis, Kostantinos A.; White, Crow; Selkoe, Kimberly A.

2018-01-01

A major challenge for coral reef conservation and management is understanding how a wide range of interacting human and natural drivers cumulatively impact and shape these ecosystems. Despite the importance of understanding these interactions, a methodological framework to synthesize spatially explicit data of such drivers is lacking. To fill this gap, we established a transferable data synthesis methodology to integrate spatial data on environmental and anthropogenic drivers of coral reefs, and applied this methodology to a case study location–the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). Environmental drivers were derived from time series (2002–2013) of climatological ranges and anomalies of remotely sensed sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a, irradiance, and wave power. Anthropogenic drivers were characterized using empirically derived and modeled datasets of spatial fisheries catch, sedimentation, nutrient input, new development, habitat modification, and invasive species. Within our case study system, resulting driver maps showed high spatial heterogeneity across the MHI, with anthropogenic drivers generally greatest and most widespread on O‘ahu, where 70% of the state’s population resides, while sedimentation and nutrients were dominant in less populated islands. Together, the spatial integration of environmental and anthropogenic driver data described here provides a first-ever synthetic approach to visualize how the drivers of coral reef state vary in space and demonstrates a methodological framework for implementation of this approach in other regions of the world. By quantifying and synthesizing spatial drivers of change on coral reefs, we provide an avenue for further research to understand how drivers determine reef diversity and resilience, which can ultimately inform policies to protect coral reefs. PMID:29494613

Automating X-ray Fluorescence Analysis for Rapid Astrobiology Surveys.

PubMed

Thompson, David R; Flannery, David T; Lanka, Ravi; Allwood, Abigail C; Bue, Brian D; Clark, Benton C; Elam, W Timothy; Estlin, Tara A; Hodyss, Robert P; Hurowitz, Joel A; Liu, Yang; Wade, Lawrence A

2015-11-01

A new generation of planetary rover instruments, such as PIXL (Planetary Instrument for X-ray Lithochemistry) and SHERLOC (Scanning Habitable Environments with Raman Luminescence for Organics and Chemicals) selected for the Mars 2020 mission rover payload, aim to map mineralogical and elemental composition in situ at microscopic scales. These instruments will produce large spectral cubes with thousands of channels acquired over thousands of spatial locations, a large potential science yield limited mainly by the time required to acquire a measurement after placement. A secondary bottleneck also faces mission planners after downlink; analysts must interpret the complex data products quickly to inform tactical planning for the next command cycle. This study demonstrates operational approaches to overcome these bottlenecks by specialized early-stage science data processing. Onboard, simple real-time systems can perform a basic compositional assessment, recognizing specific features of interest and optimizing sensor integration time to characterize anomalies. On the ground, statistically motivated visualization can make raw uncalibrated data products more interpretable for tactical decision making. Techniques such as manifold dimensionality reduction can help operators comprehend large databases at a glance, identifying trends and anomalies in data. These onboard and ground-side analyses can complement a quantitative interpretation. We evaluate system performance for the case study of PIXL, an X-ray fluorescence spectrometer. Experiments on three representative samples demonstrate improved methods for onboard and ground-side automation and illustrate new astrobiological science capabilities unavailable in previous planetary instruments. Dimensionality reduction-Planetary science-Visualization.

Estimating Root Mean Square Errors in Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture over Continental Scale Domains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Draper, Clara S.; Reichle, Rolf; de Jeu, Richard; Naeimi, Vahid; Parinussa, Robert; Wagner, Wolfgang

2013-01-01

Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) in the soil moisture anomaly time series obtained from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E; using the Land Parameter Retrieval Model) are estimated over a continental scale domain centered on North America, using two methods: triple colocation (RMSETC ) and error propagation through the soil moisture retrieval models (RMSEEP ). In the absence of an established consensus for the climatology of soil moisture over large domains, presenting a RMSE in soil moisture units requires that it be specified relative to a selected reference data set. To avoid the complications that arise from the use of a reference, the RMSE is presented as a fraction of the time series standard deviation (fRMSE). For both sensors, the fRMSETC and fRMSEEP show similar spatial patterns of relatively highlow errors, and the mean fRMSE for each land cover class is consistent with expectations. Triple colocation is also shown to be surprisingly robust to representativity differences between the soil moisture data sets used, and it is believed to accurately estimate the fRMSE in the remotely sensed soil moisture anomaly time series. Comparing the ASCAT and AMSR-E fRMSETC shows that both data sets have very similar accuracy across a range of land cover classes, although the AMSR-E accuracy is more directly related to vegetation cover. In general, both data sets have good skill up to moderate vegetation conditions.

First Gridded Spatial Field Reconstructions of Snow from Tree Rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coulthard, B. L.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Pederson, G. T.; Alder, J. R.; Hostetler, S. W.; Gray, S. T.

2017-12-01

Western North America's mountain snowpacks provide critical water resources for human populations and ecosystems. Warmer temperatures and changing precipitation patterns will increasingly alter the quantity, extent, and persistence of snow in coming decades. A comprehensive understanding of the causes and range of long-term variability in this system is required for forecasting future anomalies, but snowpack observations are limited and sparse. While individual tree ring-based annual snowpack reconstructions have been developed for specific regions and mountain ranges, we present here the first collection of spatially-explicit gridded field reconstructions of seasonal snowpack within the American Rocky Mountains. Capitalizing on a new western North American snow-sensitive network of over 700 tree-ring chronologies, as well as recent advances in PRISM-based snow modeling, our gridded reconstructions offer a full space-time characterization of snow and associated water resource fluctuations over several centuries. The quality of reconstructions is evaluated against existing observations, proxy-records, and an independently-developed first-order monthly snow model.

Analysis of spatial patterns underlying the linkage between solar irradiance and near-surface air temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balling, Robert C.; Roy, Shouraseni Sen

2005-06-01

Many scientists have noted that global temperature anomalies were highly correlated with solar irradiance values until sometime in the 1970s, but since that time, the pronounced warming in the near-surface temperature record is not explained by variations or trends in solar receipt. In this investigation, spatial dimensions are explored in the relationship between irradiance and near-surface air temperatures. At the scale of individual 5° by 5° grid cells, the solar control on annual temperature variations is not statistically significant. When the temperature data are aggregated by 5° latitudinal bands, the solar - temperature connect is generally significant, and in every band, there is substantial evidence that a non-solar control has become dominant in recent decades. The buildup of greenhouse gases and/or some other global-scale feedback, such as widespread changes in atmospheric water vapor, emerge as potential explanations for the recent residual warming found in all latitudinal bands.

Resolving runaway electron distributions in space, time, and energy

DOE PAGES

Paz-Soldan, Carlos; Cooper, C. M.; Aleynikov, P.; ...

2018-05-01

Areas of agreement and disagreement with present-day models of RE evolution are revealed by measuring MeV-level bremsstrahlung radiation from runaway electrons (REs) with a pinhole camera. Spatially-resolved measurements localize the RE beam, reveal energy-dependent RE transport, and can be used to perform full two-dimensional (energy and pitch-angle) inversions of the RE phase space distribution. Energy-resolved measurements find qualitative agreement with modeling on the role of collisional and synchrotron damping in modifying the RE distribution shape. Measurements are consistent with predictions of phase-space attractors that accumulate REs, with non-monotonic features observed in the distribution. Temporally-resolved measurements find qualitative agreement with modelingmore » on the impact of collisional and synchrotron damping in varying the RE growth and decay rate. Anomalous RE loss is observed and found to be largest at low energy. As a result, possible roles for kinetic instability or spatial transport to resolve these anomalies are discussed.« less

Resolving runaway electron distributions in space, time, and energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paz-Soldan, Carlos; Cooper, C. M.; Aleynikov, P.

Areas of agreement and disagreement with present-day models of RE evolution are revealed by measuring MeV-level bremsstrahlung radiation from runaway electrons (REs) with a pinhole camera. Spatially-resolved measurements localize the RE beam, reveal energy-dependent RE transport, and can be used to perform full two-dimensional (energy and pitch-angle) inversions of the RE phase space distribution. Energy-resolved measurements find qualitative agreement with modeling on the role of collisional and synchrotron damping in modifying the RE distribution shape. Measurements are consistent with predictions of phase-space attractors that accumulate REs, with non-monotonic features observed in the distribution. Temporally-resolved measurements find qualitative agreement with modelingmore » on the impact of collisional and synchrotron damping in varying the RE growth and decay rate. Anomalous RE loss is observed and found to be largest at low energy. As a result, possible roles for kinetic instability or spatial transport to resolve these anomalies are discussed.« less

Enabling NLDAS-2 Anomaly Analysis Using Giovanni

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loeser, C.; Rui, H.; Teng, W. L.; Vollmer, B.; Mocko, D. M.

2017-12-01

A newly implemented feature in Giovanni (GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Interface) allows users to explore and visualize anomaly data from the NLDAS-2 Primary Forcing and Noah model data sets. For a given measurement and location, an anomaly describes how conditions for a particular time period compare to normal conditions, based on long-term averages. Analyzing anomalies is important for monitoring droughts, determining weather trends, and studying land surface processes relevant for meteorology, hydrology, and climate. Using Giovanni to analyze anomalies for NLDAS-2 data allows for these studies to be efficiently conducted for the central North American region. Phase 2 of NLDAS (NLDAS-2) currently runs at an 1/8th degree resolution, in near-real time, with data sets extending back to January 1979. NLDAS-2 provides data for soil moisture, precipitation, temperature, and other hydrology measurements. Hourly, monthly, and 30-year (1980-2009) monthly climatology data are available for several land surface models and forcing data sets. The Giovanni anomaly tool calculates monthly anomalies, for a given user-defined variable, as the difference between the NLDAS-2 monthly climatology data and the monthly data. The resulting anomaly describes how a chosen month compares to the 30-year monthly average. The presentation will demonstrate the capabilities and usefulness of Giovanni's anomaly tool, detail the recently added NLDAS-2 variables for which anomalies are available, and show how users can access the data.

Enabling NLDAS-2 Anomaly Analysis Using Giovanni

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loeser, Carlee; Rui, Hualan; Teng, William; Vollmer, Bruce; Mocko, David

2017-01-01

A newly implemented feature in Giovanni (GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Interface) allows users to explore and visualize anomaly data from the NLDAS-2 Primary Forcing and Noah model data sets. For a given measurement and location, an anomaly describes how conditions for a particular time period compare to normal conditions, based on long-term averages. Analyzing anomalies is important for monitoring droughts, determining weather trends, and studying land surface processes relevant for meteorology, hydrology, and climate. Using Giovanni to analyze anomalies for NLDAS-2 data allows for these studies to be efficiently conducted for the central North American region. Phase 2 of NLDAS (NLDAS-2) currently runs at an 1/8th degree resolution, in near-real time, with data sets extending back to January 1979. NLDAS-2 provides data for soil moisture, precipitation, temperature, and other hydrology measurements. Hourly, monthly, and 30-year (1980-2009) monthly climatology data are available for several land surface models and forcing data sets. The Giovanni anomaly tool calculates monthly anomalies, for a given user-defined variable, as the difference between the NLDAS-2 monthly climatology data and the monthly data. The resulting anomaly describes how a chosen month compares to the 30-year monthly average. The presentation will demonstrate the capabilities and usefulness of Giovanni's anomaly tool, detail the recently added NLDAS-2 variables for which anomalies are available, and show how users can access the data.

Real-time implementation of a multispectral mine target detection algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samson, Joseph W.; Witter, Lester J.; Kenton, Arthur C.; Holloway, John H., Jr.

2003-09-01

Spatial-spectral anomaly detection (the "RX Algorithm") has been exploited on the USMC's Coastal Battlefield Reconnaissance and Analysis (COBRA) Advanced Technology Demonstration (ATD) and several associated technology base studies, and has been found to be a useful method for the automated detection of surface-emplaced antitank land mines in airborne multispectral imagery. RX is a complex image processing algorithm that involves the direct spatial convolution of a target/background mask template over each multispectral image, coupled with a spatially variant background spectral covariance matrix estimation and inversion. The RX throughput on the ATD was about 38X real time using a single Sun UltraSparc system. A goal to demonstrate RX in real-time was begun in FY01. We now report the development and demonstration of a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) solution that achieves a real-time implementation of the RX algorithm at video rates using COBRA ATD data. The approach uses an Annapolis Microsystems Firebird PMC card containing a Xilinx XCV2000E FPGA with over 2,500,000 logic gates and 18MBytes of memory. A prototype system was configured using a Tek Microsystems VME board with dual-PowerPC G4 processors and two PMC slots. The RX algorithm was translated from its C programming implementation into the VHDL language and synthesized into gates that were loaded into the FPGA. The VHDL/synthesizer approach allows key RX parameters to be quickly changed and a new implementation automatically generated. Reprogramming the FPGA is done rapidly and in-circuit. Implementation of the RX algorithm in a single FPGA is a major first step toward achieving real-time land mine detection.

Lidar detection algorithm for time and range anomalies.

PubMed

Ben-David, Avishai; Davidson, Charles E; Vanderbeek, Richard G

2007-10-10

A new detection algorithm for lidar applications has been developed. The detection is based on hyperspectral anomaly detection that is implemented for time anomaly where the question "is a target (aerosol cloud) present at range R within time t(1) to t(2)" is addressed, and for range anomaly where the question "is a target present at time t within ranges R(1) and R(2)" is addressed. A detection score significantly different in magnitude from the detection scores for background measurements suggests that an anomaly (interpreted as the presence of a target signal in space/time) exists. The algorithm employs an option for a preprocessing stage where undesired oscillations and artifacts are filtered out with a low-rank orthogonal projection technique. The filtering technique adaptively removes the one over range-squared dependence of the background contribution of the lidar signal and also aids visualization of features in the data when the signal-to-noise ratio is low. A Gaussian-mixture probability model for two hypotheses (anomaly present or absent) is computed with an expectation-maximization algorithm to produce a detection threshold and probabilities of detection and false alarm. Results of the algorithm for CO(2) lidar measurements of bioaerosol clouds Bacillus atrophaeus (formerly known as Bacillus subtilis niger, BG) and Pantoea agglomerans, Pa (formerly known as Erwinia herbicola, Eh) are shown and discussed.

Remote sensing as a mineral prospecting technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meneses, P. R. (Principal Investigator)

1984-01-01

Remote sensing and its application as an alternative technique to mineral resource exploration are reviewed. Emphasis is given here to the analysis of the three basic attributes of remote sensing, i.e., spatial attributes related to regional structural mapping, spectral attributes related to rock discrimination and seasonal attributes related to geobotanic anomalies mapping, all of which are employed in mineral exploration. Special emphasis is given to new developments of the Thematic Mapper of the LANDSAT-5, principally with reference to the application of the bands 1.6 and 2.2 microns to map hydrothermally altered rocks and the band of red and blue shift to geobotanical anomalies mapping.

Global surface mass time variations by using a two-step inversion for cumulating daily satellite gravity information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramillien, Guillaume; Frappart, Frappart; Seoane, Lucia

2015-04-01

We propose a new method to produce time series of global maps of surface mass variations by progressive integration of daily geopotential variations measured by orbiting satellites. In the case of the GRACE mission (2002 - 2012), these geopotential variations can be determined from very accurate inter-satellite K-Band Range Rate (KBRR) measurements of 5-second daily orbits. In particular, the along-track gravity contribution of hydrology is extracted by removing de-aliasing models for static field, atmosphere, oceans mass variations (including periodical tides), as well as polar movements. Our determination of surface mass sources consists of two successive dependent Kalman filter stages. The first one consists of reducing the satellite-based potential anomalies by adjusting the longest spatial wavelengths (i.e., low-degree spherical harmonics less than 5-6). In the second stage, the residual potential anomalies from the previous stage are used to recover surface mass density changes - in terms of Equivalent-Water Height (EWH) - over a global network of juxtaposed triangular elements. These surface tiles of ~40,000 km x km are imposed to be identical and homogeneously-distributed over the terrestrial sphere, however they can be adapted to the local geometry of the surface mass. Our global approach was tested by inverting simulated hydrology-related geopotential data, and successfully applied to estimate time-varying surface mass densities from real GRACE-based residuals. This strategy of combined Kalman filter-type inversions can also be useful for exploring the possibility of reaching better time and space resolutions for hydrology, that would be hopefully brought by future low altitude geodetic missions.

Tracing the phase of focused broadband laser pulses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoff, Dominik; Krüger, Michael; Maisenbacher, Lothar; Sayler, A. M.; Paulus, Gerhard G.; Hommelhoff, Peter

2017-10-01

Precise knowledge of the behaviour of the phase of light in a focused beam is fundamental to understanding and controlling laser-driven processes. More than a hundred years ago, an axial phase anomaly for focused monochromatic light beams was discovered and is now commonly known as the Gouy phase. Recent theoretical work has brought into question the validity of applying this monochromatic phase formulation to the broadband pulses becoming ubiquitous today. Based on electron backscattering at sharp nanometre-scale metal tips, a method is available to measure light fields with sub-wavelength spatial resolution and sub-optical-cycle time resolution. Here we report such a direct, three-dimensional measurement of the spatial dependence of the optical phase of a focused, 4-fs, near-infrared pulsed laser beam. The observed optical phase deviates substantially from the monochromatic Gouy phase--exhibiting a much more complex spatial dependence, both along the propagation axis and in the radial direction. In our measurements, these significant deviations are the rule and not the exception for focused, broadband laser pulses. Therefore, we expect wide ramifications for all broadband laser-matter interactions, such as in high-harmonic and attosecond pulse generation, femtochemistry, ophthalmological optical coherence tomography and light-wave electronics.

Spatial and temporal uplift history of South America from calibrated drainage analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez Tribaldos, V.; White, N. J.; Roberts, G. G.; Hoggard, M. J.

2017-06-01

A multidisciplinary approach is used to analyze the Cenozoic uplift history of South America. Residual depth anomalies of oceanic crust abutting this continent help to determine the pattern of present-day dynamic topography. Admittance analysis and crustal thickness measurements indicate that the elastic thickness of the Borborema and Altiplano regions is ≤10 km with evidence for sub-plate support at longer wavelengths. A drainage inventory of 1827 river profiles is assembled and used to investigate landscape development. Linear inverse modeling enables river profiles to be fitted as a function of the spatial and temporal history of regional uplift. Erosional parameters are calibrated using observations from the Borborema Plateau and tested against continent-wide stratigraphic and thermochronologic constraints. Our results predict that two phases of regional uplift of the Altiplano plateau occurred in Neogene times. Regional uplift of the southern Patagonian Andes also appears to have occurred in Early Miocene times. The consistency between observed and predicted histories for the Borborema, Altiplano, and Patagonian plateaux implies that drainage networks record coherent signals that are amenable to simple modeling strategies. Finally, the predicted pattern of incision across the Amazon catchment constrains solid sedimentary flux at the Foz do Amazonas. Observed and calculated flux estimates match, suggesting that erosion and deposition were triggered by regional Andean uplift during Miocene times.

Characteristics of chiral anomaly in view of various applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujikawa, Kazuo

2018-01-01

In view of the recent applications of chiral anomaly to various fields beyond particle physics, we discuss some basic aspects of chiral anomaly which may help deepen our understanding of chiral anomaly in particle physics also. It is first shown that Berry's phase (and its generalization) for the Weyl model H =vFσ →.p →(t ) assumes a monopole form at the exact adiabatic limit but deviates from it off the adiabatic limit and vanishes in the high frequency limit of the Fourier transform of p →(t ) for bounded |p →(t )|. An effective action, which is consistent with the nonadiabatic limit of Berry's phase, combined with the Bjorken-Johnson-Low prescription, gives normal equal-time space-time commutators and no chiral anomaly. In contrast, an effective action with a monopole at the origin of the momentum space, which describes Berry's phase in the precise adiabatic limit but fails off the adiabatic limit, gives anomalous space-time commutators and a covariant anomaly to the gauge current. We regard this anomaly as an artifact of the postulated monopole and not a consequence of Berry's phase. As for the recent application of the chiral anomaly to the description of effective Weyl fermions in condensed matter and nuclear physics, which is closely related to the formulation of lattice chiral fermions, we point out that the chiral anomaly for each species doubler separately vanishes for a finite lattice spacing, contrary to the common assumption. Instead, a general form of pair creation associated with the spectral flow for the Dirac sea with finite depth takes place. This view is supported by the Ginsparg-Wilson fermion, which defines a single Weyl fermion without doublers on the lattice and gives a well-defined index (anomaly) even for a finite lattice spacing. A different use of anomaly in analogy to the partially conserved axial-vector current is also mentioned and could lead to an effect without fermion number nonconservation.

An Evaluation of Subseasonal Intensity Variation of the South Asian High in the CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shang, W.; Ren, X.

2017-12-01

The South Asian High (SAH) is a vital member among the Asian summer monsoon circulations in the upper troposphere located over the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas during boreal summer. This study presents an evaluation of the characteristics of SAH's subseasonal intensity variation simulated by 18 coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is used on subseasonal anomalies in 100hPa geopotential height over 20°-40°N, 35°-110°E for June, July and August from 1979 to 2005. The first EOF mode from the ERA-Interim (denoted as observation) shows a monopole pattern capturing the strengthening/weakening of SAH. The power spectrum analysis of the corresponding principal component (PC1) time series shows a period about 10-30 days. In general, all the 18 coupled models can reproduce the monopole pattern and its subseasonal oscillation to a certain extent. The four well-simulated models are: ACCESS1-3, HadGEM2-CC, MRI-CGCM3 and BNU-ESM, which EOF1 show strong positive anomalies in the 100hPa geopotential height over the SAH's region and weak negative anomalies in their north side. Lead-lag regression shows that the evolution of the EOF1 from day -12 to +3 in the above four models is also reasonably simulated. In the observation, positive rainfall band moves northward from the equatorial Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengals and the Western North Pacific to the north of Indian Peninsula, south of Tibetan Plateau and Southeast China, accompanied by the increasing intensity of SAH. In the above four models, the northward movement of anomalous rainfall band can be well reproduced. In the observation, the spatial pattern of anomalies in integrated apparent heat source and integrated apparent moisture sink resemble that of rainfall, thus corresponding to anomalous condensation heat release. The anomalous heating stimulates positive height anomalies with an anomalous anticyclonic circulation to its northwest in the upper troposphere, causing the strengthening of SAH intensity. For the four well-simulated models, the anomalies pattern of and are realistically simulated. That is why they are able to reproduce the key features of the subseasonal intensity variation of the SAH.

Geophysical survey within the Mesozoic magnetic anomaly sequence south of Bermuda

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Purdy, G.M.; Rohr, K.

1979-09-10

This geophysical survey of an approximate 1/sup 0/ square covers Mesozoic magnetic anomalies M0, M2, and M4 south of Bermuda. Bathymetry, magnetics seismic reflection profiling, and seismic refraction data are presented. The isochron trend within the survey area at magnetic anomaly M4 times is 025/sup 0/. Two left lateral fracture zones exist: the southern fracture zone has an offset of <10 km at M4 time and 33 km at M0 time. The northern fracture zone has an offset of 37 km at M4 time and 26 km at M0 time. These changes in ofsett are accounted for by asymmetric spreading,more » an 11/sup 0/ change in trend of anomaly M0 relative to M4, and by M0 time, growth of a small right lateral fracture zone. Seismic refraction data provide poor control on the shallow crustal structure but suggest the presence of significant lateral inhomogeneities with layer 2.« less

Droughts in India from 1981 to 2013 and Implications to Wheat Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiang; Obringer, Renee; Wei, Chehan; Chen, Nengcheng; Niyogi, Dev

2017-03-01

Understanding drought from multiple perspectives is critical due to its complex interactions with crop production, especially in India. However, most studies only provide singular view of drought and lack the integration with specific crop phenology. In this study, four time series of monthly meteorological, hydrological, soil moisture, and vegetation droughts from 1981 to 2013 were reconstructed for the first time. The wheat growth season (from October to April) was particularly analyzed. In this study, not only the most severe and widespread droughts were identified, but their spatial-temporal distributions were also analyzed alone and concurrently. The relationship and evolutionary process among these four types of droughts were also quantified. The role that the Green Revolution played in drought evolution was also studied. Additionally, the trends of drought duration, frequency, extent, and severity were obtained. Finally, the relationship between crop yield anomalies and all four kinds of drought during the wheat growing season was established. These results provide the knowledge of the most influential drought type, conjunction, spatial-temporal distributions and variations for wheat production in India. This study demonstrates a novel approach to study drought from multiple views and integrate it with crop growth, thus providing valuable guidance for local drought mitigation.

EVOLUTION OF NEAR-SURFACE FLOWS INFERRED FROM HIGH-RESOLUTION RING-DIAGRAM ANALYSIS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bogart, Richard S.; Baldner, Charles S.; Basu, Sarbani

2015-07-10

Ring-diagram analysis of acoustic waves observed at the photosphere can provide a relatively robust determination of the sub-surface flows at a particular time under a particular region. The depth of penetration of the waves is related to the size of the region, hence the depth extent of the measured flows is inversely proportional to the spatial resolution. Most ring-diagram analysis has focused on regions of extent ∼15° (180 Mm) or more in order to provide reasonable mode sets for inversions. Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) data analysis also provides a set of ring fit parameters on a scale three timesmore » smaller. These provide flow estimates for the outer 1% (7 Mm) of the Sun only, with very limited depth resolution, but with spatial resolution adequate to map structures potentially associated with the belts and regions of magnetic activity. There are a number of systematic effects affecting the determination of flows from a local helioseismic analysis of regions over different parts of the observable disk, and not all of them are well understood. In this study we characterize those systematic effects with higher spatial resolution so that they may be accounted for more effectively in mapping the temporal and spatial evolution of the flows. Leaving open the question of the mean structure of the global meridional circulation and the differential rotation, we describe the near-surface flow anomalies in time and latitude corresponding to the torsional oscillation pattern in differential rotation and analogous patterns in the meridional cell structure as observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory/HMI.« less

Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, Marika M.; Landrum, Laura; Kostov, Yavor; Marshall, John

2017-09-01

We assess the sea ice response to Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies for pre-industrial control simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Consistent with work by Ferreira et al. (J Clim 28:1206-1226, 2015. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00313.1), the models generally simulate a two-timescale response to positive SAM anomalies, with an initial increase in ice followed by an eventual sea ice decline. However, the models differ in the cross-over time at which the change in ice response occurs, in the overall magnitude of the response, and in the spatial distribution of the response. Late twentieth century Antarctic sea ice trends in CMIP5 simulations are related in part to different modeled responses to SAM variability acting on different time-varying transient SAM conditions. This explains a significant fraction of the spread in simulated late twentieth century southern hemisphere sea ice extent trends across the model simulations. Applying the modeled sea ice response to SAM variability but driven by the observed record of SAM suggests that variations in the austral summer SAM, which has exhibited a significant positive trend, have driven a modest sea ice decrease. However, additional work is needed to narrow the considerable model uncertainty in the climate response to SAM variability and its implications for 20th-21st century trends.

Improved gravity anomaly fields from retracked multimission satellite radar altimetry observations over the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khaki, M.; Forootan, E.; Sharifi, M. A.; Awange, J.; Kuhn, M.

2015-09-01

Satellite radar altimetry observations are used to derive short wavelength gravity anomaly fields over the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea, where in situ and ship-borne gravity measurements have limited spatial coverage. In this study the retracking algorithm `Extrema Retracking' (ExtR) was employed to improve sea surface height (SSH) measurements that are highly biased in the study regions due to land contaminations in the footprints of the satellite altimetry observations. ExtR was applied to the waveforms sampled by the five satellite radar altimetry missions: TOPEX/POSEIDON, JASON-1, JASON-2, GFO and ERS-1. Along-track slopes have been estimated from the improved SSH measurements and used in an iterative process to estimate deflections of the vertical, and subsequently, the desired gravity anomalies. The main steps of the gravity anomaly computations involve estimating improved SSH using the ExtR technique, computing deflections of the vertical from interpolated SSHs on a regular grid using a biharmonic spline interpolation and finally estimating gridded gravity anomalies. A remove-compute-restore algorithm, based on the fast Fourier transform, has been applied to convert deflections of the vertical into gravity anomalies. Finally, spline interpolation has been used to estimate regular gravity anomaly grids over the two study regions. Results were evaluated by comparing the estimated altimetry-derived gravity anomalies (with and without implementing the ExtR algorithm) with ship-borne free air gravity anomaly observations, and free air gravity anomalies from the Earth Gravitational Model 2008 (EGM2008). The comparison indicates a range of 3-5 mGal in the residuals, which were computed by taking the differences between the retracked altimetry-derived gravity anomaly and the ship-borne data. The comparison of retracked data with ship-borne data indicates a range in the root-mean-square-error (RMSE) between approximately 1.8 and 4.4 mGal and a bias between 0.4062 and 2.1413 mGal over different areas. Also a maximum RMSE of 4.4069 mGal, with a mean value of 0.7615 mGal was obtained in the residuals. An average improvement of 5.2746 mGal in the RMSE of the altimetry-derived gravity anomalies corresponding to 89.9 per cent was obtained after applying the ExtR post-processing.

Recent physical-chemical anomalies and associated ecological responses in southern California kelp forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, R. J.; Reed, D.; Washburn, L.; Bell, T. W.; Blanchette, C. A.

2016-02-01

Time series data collected by the Santa Barbara Coastal Long-Term Ecological Research program on giant kelp forests and the environmental factors that influence them provide a unique opportunity to examine the extent and ecological consequences of recent anomalies in physical and chemical properties of a shallow water benthic marine ecosystem. Positive temperature anomalies have been recorded in all but two months since early 2013 with deviations ranging as high as 3.8 oC above the 14-year monthly mean, which is unprecedented in the time series. Positive anomalies in salinity (DS) were also observed every month since late 2012 and DS exceeded 0.3 for several months in 2013 and 2014. Positive DS values occurred in previous years, but were weaker and shorter in duration. Apart from 1-2 months, anomalies in nitrate, phosphate, and silicate turned consistently negative in late 2012. However, comparable anomalies in these nutrients occurred earlier in the record, especially before 2008 for nitrate and phosphate. Anomalies in key ecological characteristics of giant kelp forests associated with the large positive temperature anomalies have been much less striking. Water column chlorophyll a, the standing biomass of giant kelp and densities of many kelp forest consumers have been lower than normal in recent years, but not markedly so compared to other years in the time series. Shorter time series data on pigment concentrations in giant kelp revealed a declining trend in recent years, consistent with the below normal levels observed in kelp tissue nitrogen. The most dramatic change in kelp forests that coincided with the onset of the temperature anomalies was observed in sea stars, which first showed signs of a wasting disease in fall of 2013. The disease spread rapidly from north to south and by spring 2014 infections were prevalent throughout southern California. Large corresponding increases in the abundance of starfish prey have yet to be observed.

Development of GIS Database for New Madrid Seismic Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birhanemeskel, Y. T.; Vlahovic, G.; Arroucau, P.; Malhotra, R.; Powell, C. A.

2010-12-01

The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) of the central Mississippi river valley is currently the most seismically active region in the central and eastern United States. A number of earthquakes occurred in NMSZ between 1811 and 1812, of which three major earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 7 destroyed the town of New Madrid, Missouri. Intraplate seismicity like the New Madrid seismicity is difficult to explain in the framework of plate tectonics and requires analyzing various geological, geophysical and seismological data to better understand its causes. ArcGIS® 9.3.1 software with license type ArcEditor was used to build a geodatabase containing multiple layers that are useful for the study of intraplate seismicity. These layers include earthquake locations, gravity and magnetic anomalies, lithology, topography, velocity anomalies as resolved by arrival time tomography and geological structures like intrusions and faults. The data for these layers were obtained from the U.S Geological Survey, from the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis, TN, and from paper maps. Zipped files of various formats (.xls, .shp, .txt, .tar, etc) were downloaded and converted to a format compatible with ArcGIS. To keep compatibility of the data, editing of the attribute table of the raw data was completed before importing the data to Arc Catalog. Geo-referencing and digitizing processes were also done to import layers of contour lines and geological structures with correct vector information from papers maps. Layers were clipped in order to make sure that they fit the spatial extent of the study area (from 34°S to 40°N in latitude and from 93°W to 86°W in longitude). The New Madrid seismicity will be analyzed by looking for possible relationships that exist between the data layers using various spatial and geostatistical tools. For example the distribution of earthquakes will be analyzed with respect to the potential field and velocity anomalies. In addition to layers already imported in the database stream (river) layer will also be added and database will be continuously updated as new research results become available.

A multi-model ensemble view of winter heat flux dynamics and the dipole mode in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liguori, Giovanni; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Cabos, William

2017-02-01

Changes in surface heat fluxes affect several climate processes controlling the Mediterranean climate. These include the winter formation of deep waters, which is the primary driver of the Mediterranean Sea overturning circulation. Previous studies that characterize the spatial and temporal variability of surface heat flux anomalies over the basin reveal the existence of two statistically dominant patterns of variability: a monopole of uniform sign and an east-west dipole of opposite signs. In this work, we use the 12 regional climate model ensemble from the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project to diagnose the large-scale atmospheric processes that control the variability of heat fluxes over the Mediterranean Sea from interannual to decadal timescales (here defined as timescales > 6 year). Our findings suggest that while the monopole structure captures variability in the winter-to-winter domain-average net heat flux, the dipole pattern tracks changes in the Mediterranean climate that are connected to the East Atlantic/Western Russia (EA/WR) atmospheric teleconnection pattern. Furthermore, while the monopole exhibits significant differences in the spatial structure across the multi-model ensemble, the dipole pattern is very robust and more clearly identifiable in the anomaly maps of individual years. A heat budget analysis of the dipole pattern reveals that changes in winds associated with the EA/WR pattern exert dominant control through both a direct effect on the latent heat flux (i.e., wind speed) and an indirect effect through specific humidity (e.g., wind advection). A simple reconstruction of the heat flux variability over the deep-water formation regions of the Gulf of Lion and the Aegean Sea reveals that the combination of the monopole and dipole time series explains over 90 % of the heat flux variance in these regions. Given the important role that surface heat flux anomalies play in deep-water formation and the regional climate, improving our knowledge on the dynamics controlling the leading modes of heat flux variability may enhance our predictability of the climate of the Mediterranean area.

Gridded Data in the Arctic; Benefits and Perils of Publicly Available Grids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coakley, B.; Forsberg, R.; Gabbert, R.; Beale, J.; Kenyon, S. C.

2015-12-01

Our understanding of the Arctic Ocean has been hugely advanced by release of gridded bathymetry and potential field anomaly grids. The Arctic Gravity Project grid achieves excellent, near-isotropic coverage of the earth north of 64˚N by combining land, satellite, airborne, submarine, surface ship and ice set-out measurements of gravity anomalies. Since the release of the V 2.0 grid in 2008, there has been extensive icebreaker activity across the Amerasia Basin due to mapping of the Arctic coastal nation's Extended Continental Shelves (ECS). While grid resolution has been steadily improving over time, addition of higher resolution and better navigated data highlights some distortions in the grid that may influence interpretation. In addition to the new ECS data sets, gravity anomaly data has been collected from other vessels; notably the Korean Icebreaker Araon, the Japanese icebreaker Mirai and the German icebreaker Polarstern. Also the GRAV-D project of the US National Geodetic Survey has flown airborne surveys over much of Alaska. These data will be Included in the new AGP grid, which will result in a much improved product when version 3.0 is released in 2015. To make use of these measurements, it is necessary to compile them into a continuous spatial representation. Compilation is complicated by differences in survey parameters, gravimeter sensitivity and reduction methods. Cross-over errors are the classic means to assess repeatability of track measurements. Prior to the introduction of near-universal GPS positioning, positional uncertainty was evaluated by cross-over analysis. GPS positions can be treated as more or less true, enabling evaluation of differences due to contrasting sensitivity, reference and reduction techniques. For the most part, cross-over errors for racks of gravity anomaly data collected since 2008 are less than 0.5 mGals, supporting the compilation of these data with only slight adjustments. Given the different platforms used for various Arctic Ocean surveys, registration between bathymetric and gravity anomaly grids cannot be assumed. Inverse methods, which assume co-registration of data produce, sometimes surprising results when well-constrained gravity grid values are inverted against interpolated bathymetry.

A Surface Wave's View of the Mid-Continent Rift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, A. E.; Darbyshire, F. A.; Schaeffer, A. J.

2017-12-01

The presence of the Mid-Continent Rift (MCR), a 1.1Ga failed rift in central North America, raises many questions. We address the following: what lasting effects has it had on the continental lithosphere? Though many studies have looked at the area with a variety of data types, the combination of USArray Transportable Array stations to the south, permanent and temporary Canadian stations to the north, and SPREE stations in strategic locations crossing the rift provide a new opportunity for a regional surface-wave study. We select 80 stations with roughly 200 km spacing, resulting in dense path coverage of a broad area centered on the MCR. We use teleseismic data for all earthquakes from January 2005-August 2016 with a magnitude greater than 6.0, amounting to over 1200 events, and we make Rayleigh wave two-station dispersion measurements for all station pairs with suitable event-station geometry. We invert these measurements for anisotropic phase-velocity maps at periods of 20-200 s, yielding information not only on the wave speed but also the current fabric of the lithosphere, a complicated record of strain from formation, through modification from orogeny, attempted rifting, and hotspot interaction, to present day plate motion. We observe a clear signature of the MCR at short (20-25 s) periods, with the slowest phase-velocity anomaly in the region aligning with the strongest gravity anomaly. At increasing periods, and thus greater depths, this slowest anomaly shifts to beneath the center of Lake Superior (30-40 s). Eventually, it appears to merge with a slow anomaly to the north associated with the Nipigon Embayment, and contrasts sharply with an adjacent fast anomaly in the western Superior Province. In our preliminary anisotropy results, we observe weak anisotropy at the latitude of the MCR and to the south, whereas to the north of the MCR we find strong anisotropy. This is similar to the spatial variations in magnitude of delay times from shear-wave splitting results (Ola et al., 2016), however, the orientation of the fast direction in this study varies complexly throughout the lithosphere.

Impact of vegetation feedback at subseasonal & seasonal timescales on precipitation over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Wang, G.

2006-05-01

Soil moisture-vegetation-precipitation feedbacks tend to enhance soil moisture memory in some areas of the globe, which contributes to the subseasonal and seasonal climate prediction skill. In this study, the impact of vegetation on precipitation over North America is investigated using a coupled land-atmosphere model CAM3- CLM3. The coupled model has been modified to include a predictive vegetation phenology scheme and validated against the MODIS data. Vegetation phenology is modeled by updating the leaf area index (LAI) daily in response to cumulative and concurrent hydrometeorological conditions. First, driven with the climatological SST, a large group of 5-member ensembles of simulations from the late spring and summer to the end of year are generated with the different initial conditions of soil moisture. The impact of initial soil moisture anomalies on subsequent precipitation is examined with the predictive vegetation phenology scheme disabled/enabled ("SM"/"SM_Veg" ensembles). The simulated climate differences between "SM" and "SM_Veg" ensembles represent the role of vegetation in soil moisture-vegetation- precipitation feedback. Experiments in this study focus on how the response of precipitation to initial soil moisture anomalies depends on their characteristics, including the timing, magnitude, spatial coverage and vertical depth, and further how it is modified by the interactive vegetation. Our results, for example, suggest that the impact of late spring soil moisture anomalies is not evident in subsequent precipitation until early summer when local convective precipitation dominates. With the summer wet soil moisture anomalies, vegetation tends to enhance the positive feedback between soil moisture and precipitation, while vegetation tends to suppress such positive feedback with the late spring anomalies. Second, the impact of vegetation feedback is investigated by driving the model with the inter-annually varying monthly SST (1983-1994). With the predictive vegetation phenology disabled/enabled ("SM"/"SM_Veg" ensembles), the simulated climates are compared with the observation. This will present the role of an interactive or predictive vegetation phenology scheme in subseasonal and seasonal climate prediction. Specifically, the extreme climate events such as drought in 1988 and flood in 1993 over the Midwestern United States will be the focus of results analyses.

Improving detection of low SNR targets using moment-based detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, Shannon R.; Steward, Bryan J.; Hawks, Michael; Gross, Kevin C.

2016-05-01

Increases in the number of cameras deployed, frame rate, and detector array sizes have led to a dramatic increase in the volume of motion imagery data that is collected. Without a corresponding increase in analytical manpower, much of the data is not analyzed to full potential. This creates a need for fast, automated, and robust methods for detecting signals of interest. Current approaches fall into two categories: detect-before-track (DBT), which are fast but often poor at detecting dim targets, and track-before-detect (TBD) methods which can offer better performance but are typically much slower. This research seeks to contribute to the near real time detection of low SNR, unresolved moving targets through an extension of earlier work on higher order moments anomaly detection, a method that exploits both spatial and temporal information but is still computationally efficient and massively parallelizable. It was found that intelligent selection of parameters can improve probability of detection by as much as 25% compared to earlier work with higherorder moments. The present method can reduce detection thresholds by 40% compared to the Reed-Xiaoli anomaly detector for low SNR targets (for a given probability of detection and false alarm).

Anomalous transport from holography: part II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bu, Yanyan; Lublinsky, Michael; Sharon, Amir

2017-03-01

This is a second study of chiral anomaly-induced transport within a holographic model consisting of anomalous U(1)_V× U(1)_A Maxwell theory in Schwarzschild-AdS_5 spacetime. In the first part, chiral magnetic/separation effects (CME/CSE) are considered in the presence of a static spatially inhomogeneous external magnetic field. Gradient corrections to CME/CSE are analytically evaluated up to third order in the derivative expansion. Some of the third order gradient corrections lead to an anomaly-induced negative B^2-correction to the diffusion constant. We also find modifications to the chiral magnetic wave nonlinear in B. In the second part, we focus on the experimentally interesting case of the axial chemical potential being induced dynamically by a constant magnetic and time-dependent electric fields. Constitutive relations for the vector/axial currents are computed employing two different approximations: (a) derivative expansion (up to third order) but fully nonlinear in the external fields, and (b) weak electric field limit but resuming all orders in the derivative expansion. A non-vanishing nonlinear axial current (CSE) is found in the first case. The dependence on magnetic field and frequency of linear transport coefficient functions is explored in the second.

Tropical cyclone cooling combats region-wide coral bleaching.

PubMed

Carrigan, Adam D; Puotinen, Marji

2014-05-01

Coral bleaching has become more frequent and widespread as a result of rising sea surface temperature (SST). During a regional scale SST anomaly, reef exposure to thermal stress is patchy in part due to physical factors that reduce SST to provide thermal refuge. Tropical cyclones (TCs - hurricanes, typhoons) can induce temperature drops at spatial scales comparable to that of the SST anomaly itself. Such cyclone cooling can mitigate bleaching across broad areas when well-timed and appropriately located, yet the spatial and temporal prevalence of this phenomenon has not been quantified. Here, satellite SST and historical TC data are used to reconstruct cool wakes (n=46) across the Caribbean during two active TC seasons (2005 and 2010) where high thermal stress was widespread. Upon comparison of these datasets with thermal stress data from Coral Reef Watch and published accounts of bleaching, it is evident that TC cooling reduced thermal stress at a region-wide scale. The results show that during a mass bleaching event, TC cooling reduced thermal stress below critical levels to potentially mitigate bleaching at some reefs, and interrupted natural warming cycles to slow the build-up of thermal stress at others. Furthermore, reconstructed TC wave damage zones suggest that it was rare for more reef area to be damaged by waves than was cooled (only 12% of TCs). Extending the time series back to 1985 (n = 314), we estimate that for the recent period of enhanced TC activity (1995-2010), the annual probability that cooling and thermal stress co-occur is as high as 31% at some reefs. Quantifying such probabilities across the other tropical regions where both coral reefs and TCs exist is vital for improving our understanding of how reef exposure to rising SSTs may vary, and contributes to a basis for targeting reef conservation. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Application of the Augmented Operator Function Model for Developing Cognitive Metrics in Persistent Surveillance

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-26

vehicle-lengths between frames. The low specificity of object detectors in WAMI means all vehicle detections are treated equally. Motion clutter...timing of the anomaly . If an anomaly was detected , recent activity would have a priority over older activity. This is due to the reasoning that if the...this could be a potential anomaly detected . Other baseline activities include normal work hours, religious observance times and interactions between

Symbolic Time-Series Analysis for Anomaly Detection in Mechanical Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-08-01

Amol Khatkhate, Asok Ray , Fellow, IEEE, Eric Keller, Shalabh Gupta, and Shin C. Chin Abstract—This paper examines the efficacy of a novel method for...recognition. KHATKHATE et al.: SYMBOLIC TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS FOR ANOMALY DETECTION 447 Asok Ray (F’02) received graduate degrees in electri- cal...anomaly detection has been pro- posed by Ray [6], where the underlying information on the dynamical behavior of complex systems is derived based on

Picard Trajectory Approximation Iteration for Efficient Orbit Propagation

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-21

Eqn (8)) for an iterative ap- proximation of eccentric anomaly, and is transformed back to . The Lambert/ Kepler time – eccentric anomaly relationship...of Kepler motion based on spinor regulari- zation, Journal fur die Reine und Angewandt Mathematik 218, 204-219, 1965. [3] Levi-Civita T., Sur la...transformed back to  , ,x y z . The Lambert/ Kepler time – eccentric anomaly relationship is iterated by a Newton/Secant method to converge on the

Evaluating Neogene Uplift and Denudational History of the Colorado Rockies Using River Profiles and Incision Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darling, A.; Karlstrom, K.; Kirby, E.; Ouimet, W.; Coblentz, D.; Aslan, A.

2008-12-01

The goal of the Colorado Rockies Experiment and Seismic Transects (CREST) is to image the velocity structure beneath the Rocky Mountains (2008-2009) and evaluate mantle to surface interconnections that may illuminate causes and timing of uplift of the Rockies. Existing mantle tomography shows a zone of low- density mantle, the Aspen Anomaly, that underlies the highest topography in Colorado. The tectonic geomorphic component of the project involves understanding incision patterns in time and space throughout the bedrock fluvial systems of western Rocky Mountains and eastern Colorado Plateau. The Colorado River and its tributaries drain the western slope of highest topography of the Colorado Rockies; The Green River drains the Wyoming Rockies and northern Colorado Plateau. Both cross highly variable substrates (Precambrian basement to Cretaceous Mancos shale) and active faults. Preliminary analysis of longitudinal profiles of the trunk rivers indicates that for a given drainage area, the Colorado generally has a higher steepness index (a measure of gradient normalized for upstream drainage area) than the Green. Localized reaches of high steepness index along the Green are interpreted to reflect resistant substrate. We suggest that these rivers, of similar stream power, are responding to different sustained forcings, wherein the Colorado River is responding to uplift above the Aspen Anomaly. We have compiled all known incision rates for the region for the last 10 Ma. The bedrock incision rate at a given reach is determined by dates on elevated straths where gravels are overlain by or inter-layered with basalt flows (Ar-Ar dates), ash layers (tephrochronology), or can be dated by cosmogenic burial ages. A suite of new samples have also been taken for undated reaches of the Colorado River, with plans for sampling the Green for comparison of incision rates. Available data show differential incision along both the Green and Colorado rivers. When combined with profile analysis that shows non-equilibrium profiles, we identify important transient knick-points, convexities, and over-steepened reaches that are interpreted to represent a combination of tectonic and geomorphic features. Regionally important knick-points in the upper Colorado River drainage occur at Black Canyon of the Gunnison and Gore Canyon of the Colorado. These features show crude spatial correlation to the edges of the hypothesized uplift regional above the Aspen Anomaly. Gradients in topographic roughness, lithospheric geoid anomaly, normalized river gradients, and incision rate through time in these areas may be associated with dynamic uplift associated with the Aspen anomaly. Combined data sets are needed to show interactions between climate forcings, base-level fall and drainage reorganization, and tectonic epeirogeny.

Spatio-temporal variability of Arctic summer temperatures over the past 2 millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, Johannes P.; Divine, Dmitry V.; Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik; Nilsen, Tine; Francus, Pierre

2018-04-01

In this article, the first spatially resolved and millennium-length summer (June-August) temperature reconstruction over the Arctic and sub-Arctic domain (north of 60° N) is presented. It is based on a set of 44 annually dated temperature-sensitive proxy archives of various types from the revised PAGES2k database supplemented with six new recently updated proxy records. As a major advance, an extension of the Bayesian BARCAST climate field (CF) reconstruction technique provides a means to treat climate archives with dating uncertainties. This results not only in a more precise reconstruction but additionally enables joint probabilistic constraints to be imposed on the chronologies of the used archives. The new seasonal CF reconstruction for the Arctic region can be shown to be skilful for the majority of the terrestrial nodes. The decrease in the proxy data density back in time, however, limits the analyses in the spatial domain to the period after 750 CE, while the spatially averaged reconstruction covers the entire time interval of 1-2002 CE.The centennial to millennial evolution of the reconstructed temperature is in good agreement with a general pattern that was inferred in recent studies for the Arctic and its subregions. In particular, the reconstruction shows a pronounced Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; here ca. 920-1060 CE), which was characterised by a sequence of extremely warm decades over the whole domain. The medieval warming was followed by a gradual cooling into the Little Ice Age (LIA), with 1766-1865 CE as the longest centennial-scale cold period, culminating around 1811-1820 CE for most of the target region.In total over 600 independent realisations of the temperature CF were generated. As showcased for local and regional trends and temperature anomalies, operating in a probabilistic framework directly results in comprehensive uncertainty estimates, even for complex analyses. For the presented multi-scale trend analysis, for example, the spread in different paths across the reconstruction ensemble prevents a robust analysis of features at timescales shorter than ca. 30 years. For the spatial reconstruction, the benefit of using the spatially resolved reconstruction ensemble is demonstrated by focusing on the regional expression of the recent warming and the MCA. While our analysis shows that the peak MCA summer temperatures were as high as in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, the spatial coherence of extreme years over the last decades of the reconstruction (1980s onwards) seems unprecedented at least back until 750 CE. However, statistical testing could not provide conclusive support of the contemporary warming to exceed the peak of the MCA in terms of the pan-Arctic mean summer temperatures: the reconstruction cannot be extended reliably past 2002 CE due to lack of proxy data and thus the most recent warming is not captured.

Measuring canopy loss and climatic thresholds from an extreme drought along a fivefold precipitation gradient across Texas.

PubMed

Schwantes, Amanda M; Swenson, Jennifer J; González-Roglich, Mariano; Johnson, Daniel M; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Jackson, Robert B

2017-12-01

Globally, trees are increasingly dying from extreme drought, a trend that is expected to increase with climate change. Loss of trees has significant ecological, biophysical, and biogeochemical consequences. In 2011, a record drought caused widespread tree mortality in Texas. Using remotely sensed imagery, we quantified canopy loss during and after the drought across the state at 30-m spatial resolution, from the eastern pine/hardwood forests to the western shrublands, a region that includes the boundaries of many species ranges. Canopy loss observations in ~200 multitemporal fine-scale orthophotos (1-m) were used to train coarser Landsat imagery (30-m) to create 30-m binary statewide canopy loss maps. We found that canopy loss occurred across all major ecoregions of Texas, with an average loss of 9.5%. The drought had the highest impact in post oak woodlands, pinyon-juniper shrublands and Ashe juniper woodlands. Focusing on a 100-km by ~1,000-km transect spanning the State's fivefold east-west precipitation gradient (~1,500 to ~300 mm), we compared spatially explicit 2011 climatic anomalies to our canopy loss maps. Much of the canopy loss occurred in areas that passed specific climatic thresholds: warm season anomalies in mean temperature (+1.6°C) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD, +0.66 kPa), annual percent deviation in precipitation (-38%), and 2011 difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (-1,206 mm). Although similarly low precipitation occurred during the landmark 1950s drought, the VPD and temperature anomalies observed in 2011 were even greater. Furthermore, future climate data under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 trajectory project that average values will surpass the 2011 VPD anomaly during the 2070-2099 period and the temperature anomaly during the 2040-2099 period. Identifying vulnerable ecological systems to drought stress and climate thresholds associated with canopy loss will aid in predicting how forests will respond to a changing climate and how ecological landscapes will change in the near term. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An integrated surface-geophysical investigation of the University of Connecticut landfill, Storrs, Connecticut, 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Carole D.; Dawson, C.B.; Belaval, Marcel; Lane, John W.

2002-01-01

A surface-geophysical investigation to characterize the hydrogeology and contaminant distribution of the former landfill area at the University of Connecticut in Storrs, Connecticut, was conducted in 2000 to supplement the preliminary hydrogeologic assessment of the contamination of soil, surface water, and ground water at the site. A geophysical-toolbox approach was used to characterize the hydrogeology and contaminant distribution of the former landfill. Two-dimensional direct-current resistivity, inductive terrain-conductivity, and seismic-refraction surface-geophysical data were collected and interpreted in an iterative manner with exploratory drilling, borehole geophysics, and hydraulic testing. In this investigation, a geophysical-toolbox approach was used to 1) further define previously identified conductive anomalies and leachate plumes; 2) identify additional leachate plumes, possible fracture zones, and (or) conductive lithologic layers in the bedrock; and 3) delineate bedrock-surface topography in the drainage valleys north and south of the landfill. Resistivity and terrain-conductivity surveys were used to further delineate previously identified geophysical anomalies to the north and southwest of the landfill. A conductive anomaly identified in the terrain-conductivity survey to the north of the landfill in 2000 had a similar location and magnitude as an anomaly identified in terrain-conductivity surveys conducted in 1998 and 1999. Collectively, these surveys indicated that the magnitude of the conductive anomaly decreased with depth and with distance from the landfill. These anomalies indicated landfill leachate in the overburden and shallow bedrock. Results of previous surface-geophysical investigations southwest of the landfill indicated a shallow conductive anomaly in the overburden that extended into the fractured-bedrock aquifer. This conductive anomaly had a sheet-like geometry that had a north-south strike, dipped to the west, and terminated abruptly about 450 feet southwest of the landfill. The sheet-like conductive anomaly was interpreted as a fractured, conductive lithologic feature filled with conductive fluids. To further delineate this anomaly, two two-dimensional resistivity profiles were collected west of the sheet-like conductive anomaly to assess the possibility that the sheet-like conductive anomaly continued to the west in its down-dip direction. Each of the north-south oriented resistivity profiles showed bullet-shaped rather than linear-shaped anomalies, with a relatively smaller magnitude of conductivity than the sheet-like conductive anomaly to the east. If these bullet-like features are spatially connected, they may represent a linear, or pipe-like, conductive anomaly in the bedrock with a trend of N290?E and a plunge of 12?. Additional surveys were conducted to assess the apparent southern termination of the sheet-like conductive feature. Terrain-conductivity surveys indicated the sheet-like feature was not continuous to the south. A two-dimensional resistivity line and a coincident terrain-conductivity profile indicated the presence of a steep, eastward dipping, low magnitude, electrically conductive anomaly on the eastern end of the profile. Although the sheet-like conductive anomaly apparently did not continue to the south, the survey conducted in 2000 identified an isolated, weak conductive anomaly south of the previously identified anomaly. Inductive terrain-conductivity surveys performed north of the sheet-like conductive anomaly and west of the landfill indicated the anomaly did not extend to the north into the area of the former chemical-waste disposal pits. No conductive plumes or conductive features were observed in the subsurface bedrock west of the landfill. A conductive anomaly was identified in the southern section of the new terrain-conductivity grid. The magnitude and distribution of the apparent conductivity of this anomaly was identified as a nearly vertica

Statistical averaging of marine magnetic anomalies and the aging of oceanic crust.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blakely, R.J.

1983-01-01

Visual comparison of Mesozoic and Cenozoic magnetic anomalies in the North Pacific suggests that older anomalies contain less short-wavelength information than younger anomalies in this area. To test this observation, magnetic profiles from the North Pacific are examined from crust of three ages: 0-2.1, 29.3-33.1, and 64.9-70.3Ma. For each time period, at least nine profiles were analyzed by 1) calculating the power density spectrum of each profile, 2) averaging the spectra together, and 3) computing a 'recording filter' for each time period by assuming a hypothetical seafloor model. The model assumes that the top of the source is acoustic basement, the source thickness is 0.5km, and the time scale of geomagnetic reversals is according to Ness et al. (1980). The calculated power density spectra of the three recording filters are complex in shape but show an increase of attenuation of short-wavelength information as the crust ages. These results are interpreted using a multilayer model for marine magnetic anomalies in which the upper layer, corresponding to pillow basalt of seismic layer 2A, acts as a source of noise to the magnetic anomalies. As the ocean crust ages, this noisy contribution by the pillow basalts becomes less significant to the anomalies. Consequently, magnetic sources below layer 2A must be faithful recorders of geomagnetic reversals.-AuthorPacific power density spectrum

Integrating remote sensing and spatially explicit epidemiological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finger, Flavio; Knox, Allyn; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Bompangue, Didier; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

2015-04-01

Spatially explicit epidemiological models are a crucial tool for the prediction of epidemiological patterns in time and space as well as for the allocation of health care resources. In addition they can provide valuable information about epidemiological processes and allow for the identification of environmental drivers of the disease spread. Most epidemiological models rely on environmental data as inputs. They can either be measured in the field by the means of conventional instruments or using remote sensing techniques to measure suitable proxies of the variables of interest. The later benefit from several advantages over conventional methods, including data availability, which can be an issue especially in developing, and spatial as well as temporal resolution of the data, which is particularly crucial for spatially explicit models. Here we present the case study of a spatially explicit, semi-mechanistic model applied to recurring cholera outbreaks in the Lake Kivu area (Democratic Republic of the Congo). The model describes the cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of the lake. Remotely sensed datasets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers. Human mobility and its effect on the disease spread is also taken into account. Several model configurations are tested on a data set of reported cases. The best models, accounting for different environmental drivers, and selected using the Akaike information criterion, are formally compared via cross validation. The best performing model accounts for seasonality, El Niño Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility.

The Effect of Spatial Aggregation on the Skill of Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Xiaofeng; Barnston, Anthony G.; Ward, M. Neil

2003-09-01

Skillful forecasts of 3-month total precipitation would be useful for decision making in hydrology, agriculture, public health, and other sectors of society. However, with some exceptions, the skill of seasonal precipitation outlooks is modest, leaving uncertainty in how to best make use of them. Seasonal precipitation forecast skill is generally lower than the skill of forecasts for temperature or atmospheric circulation patterns for the same location and time. This is attributable to the smaller-scale, more complex physics of precipitation, resulting in its `noisier' and hence less predictable character. By contrast, associated temperature and circulation patterns are larger scale, in keeping with the anomalous boundary conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature) that often give rise to them.Using two atmospheric general circulation models forced by observed sea surface temperature anomalies, the skill of simulations of total seasonal precipitation is examined as a function of the size of the spatial domain over which the precipitation total is averaged. Results show that spatial aggregation increases skill and, by the skill measures used here, does so to a greater extent for precipitation than for temperature. Corroborative results are presented in an observational framework at smaller spatial scales for gauge rainfalls in northeast Brazil.The findings imply that when seasonal forecasts for precipitation are issued, the accompanying guidance on their expected skills should explicitly specify to which spatial aggregation level the skills apply. Information about skills expected at other levels of aggregation should be supplied for users who may work at such levels.

Climate Teleconnections and Recent Patterns of Human and Animal Disease Outbreaks

PubMed Central

Anyamba, Assaf; Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Small, Jennifer L.; Collins, Kathrine M.; Tucker, Compton J.; Pak, Edwin W.; Britch, Seth C.; Eastman, James Ronald; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Russell, Kevin L.

2012-01-01

Background Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya) in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Although Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been known to follow periods of above-normal rainfall, the timing of the outbreak events has largely been unknown. Similarly, there is inadequate knowledge on climate drivers of chikungunya outbreaks. We analyze a variety of climate and satellite-derived vegetation measurements to explain the coupling between patterns of climate variability and disease outbreaks of Rift Valley fever and chikungunya. Methods and Findings We derived a teleconnections map by correlating long-term monthly global precipitation data with the NINO3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly index. This map identifies regional hot-spots where rainfall variability may have an influence on the ecology of vector borne disease. Among the regions are Eastern and Southern Africa where outbreaks of chikungunya and Rift Valley fever occurred 2004–2009. Chikungunya and Rift Valley fever case locations were mapped to corresponding climate data anomalies to understand associations between specific anomaly patterns in ecological and climate variables and disease outbreak patterns through space and time. From these maps we explored associations among Rift Valley fever disease occurrence locations and cumulative rainfall and vegetation index anomalies. We illustrated the time lag between the driving climate conditions and the timing of the first case of Rift Valley fever. Results showed that reported outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred after ∼3–4 months of sustained above-normal rainfall and associated green-up in vegetation, conditions ideal for Rift Valley fever mosquito vectors. For chikungunya we explored associations among surface air temperature, precipitation anomalies, and chikungunya outbreak locations. We found that chikungunya outbreaks occurred under conditions of anomalously high temperatures and drought over Eastern Africa. However, in Southeast Asia, chikungunya outbreaks were negatively correlated (p<0.05) with drought conditions, but positively correlated with warmer-than-normal temperatures and rainfall. Conclusions/Significance Extremes in climate conditions forced by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to severe droughts or floods, ideal ecological conditions for disease vectors to emerge, and may result in epizootics and epidemics of Rift Valley fever and chikungunya. However, the immune status of livestock (Rift Valley fever) and human (chikungunya) populations is a factor that is largely unknown but very likely plays a role in the spatial-temporal patterns of these disease outbreaks. As the frequency and severity of extremes in climate increase, the potential for globalization of vectors and disease is likely to accelerate. Understanding the underlying patterns of global and regional climate variability and their impacts on ecological drivers of vector-borne diseases is critical in long-range planning of appropriate disease and disease-vector response, control, and mitigation strategies. PMID:22292093

Climate teleconnections and recent patterns of human and animal disease outbreaks.

PubMed

Anyamba, Assaf; Linthicum, Kenneth J; Small, Jennifer L; Collins, Kathrine M; Tucker, Compton J; Pak, Edwin W; Britch, Seth C; Eastman, James Ronald; Pinzon, Jorge E; Russell, Kevin L

2012-01-01

Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya) in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Although Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been known to follow periods of above-normal rainfall, the timing of the outbreak events has largely been unknown. Similarly, there is inadequate knowledge on climate drivers of chikungunya outbreaks. We analyze a variety of climate and satellite-derived vegetation measurements to explain the coupling between patterns of climate variability and disease outbreaks of Rift Valley fever and chikungunya. We derived a teleconnections map by correlating long-term monthly global precipitation data with the NINO3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly index. This map identifies regional hot-spots where rainfall variability may have an influence on the ecology of vector borne disease. Among the regions are Eastern and Southern Africa where outbreaks of chikungunya and Rift Valley fever occurred 2004-2009. Chikungunya and Rift Valley fever case locations were mapped to corresponding climate data anomalies to understand associations between specific anomaly patterns in ecological and climate variables and disease outbreak patterns through space and time. From these maps we explored associations among Rift Valley fever disease occurrence locations and cumulative rainfall and vegetation index anomalies. We illustrated the time lag between the driving climate conditions and the timing of the first case of Rift Valley fever. Results showed that reported outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred after ∼3-4 months of sustained above-normal rainfall and associated green-up in vegetation, conditions ideal for Rift Valley fever mosquito vectors. For chikungunya we explored associations among surface air temperature, precipitation anomalies, and chikungunya outbreak locations. We found that chikungunya outbreaks occurred under conditions of anomalously high temperatures and drought over Eastern Africa. However, in Southeast Asia, chikungunya outbreaks were negatively correlated (p<0.05) with drought conditions, but positively correlated with warmer-than-normal temperatures and rainfall. Extremes in climate conditions forced by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to severe droughts or floods, ideal ecological conditions for disease vectors to emerge, and may result in epizootics and epidemics of Rift Valley fever and chikungunya. However, the immune status of livestock (Rift Valley fever) and human (chikungunya) populations is a factor that is largely unknown but very likely plays a role in the spatial-temporal patterns of these disease outbreaks. As the frequency and severity of extremes in climate increase, the potential for globalization of vectors and disease is likely to accelerate. Understanding the underlying patterns of global and regional climate variability and their impacts on ecological drivers of vector-borne diseases is critical in long-range planning of appropriate disease and disease-vector response, control, and mitigation strategies.

Post-Metamorphic Thermal Anomaly across the Nacimiento Block, Central California: a Hydrothermal Overprint?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacroix, B.; Hughes, J.; Lahfid, A.; Delchini, S.

2017-12-01

The thermal history of the Nacimiento block located within the Franciscan Complex (California, USA) has been previously proposed based on both vitrinite reflectance (Rm) and illite cristallinity methods (Underwood et al., 1995). These authors suggest that the Nacimiento block is locally perturbed by a thermal anomaly (up to 300ºC), probably caused by post-metamorphic hydrothermal activity linked to the emplacement of an Au-deposit: the Los Burros Gold deposit. Although both thermal anomaly and deposit seem spatially correlated, their relationship is still poorly constrained. Detailed geological and structural mapping within the Los Burros Mining District (LBMD) coupled with a thermal study was conducted to better understand processes responsible for the anomalous temperatures recorded near the deposit. The regional maximum temperature reached by metasediments from the Nacimiento block have been first investigated using the Raman Spectroscopy of Carbonaceous Materials (RSCM) method. In addition, through careful fluid-inclusion and stable isotopes (O and C) studies on the deposit, the temperature and the potential source of the fluid responsible for the Los Burros Au-deposit emplacement were investigated. RSCM technique confirms the presence of a thermal anomaly in the range 260-320ºC near LBMD. However, our structural and petrographic results suggest that the thermal anomaly is not correlated to a post-metamorphic hydrothermal overprint but rather to a late, transpressive deformation uplifting buried metamorphic rocks.

Variation of the topside ionosphere during the last solar minimum period studied with multisatellite measurements of electron density and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, Kwangsun; Kwak, Youngsil; Kim, Yong Ha; Park, Jaeheung; Lee, Junchan; Min, Kyoungwook

2016-07-01

Using the ionospheric measurements of CHAMP, DEMETER, and DMSP F15, the seasonal and spatial variations of the topside ionosphere during the last solar minimum period were investigated and compared with ionospheric models. In all the satellite measurements, equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) shows clearly longitudinal asymmetry with wave number -3 or -4 patterns. Anomalous increases of Ne in the nighttime surpassing daytime Ne, known as the Weddell Sea anomaly (WSA) or midlatitude summer nighttime anomaly (MSNA), were also observed in the global Ne distribution with differences in detailed geometry of the geomagnetic field according to the altitude. In the nighttime ionosphere, the reduced Te in the equatorial region at the DMSP altitude, identified as the equatorial plasma temperature anomaly (EPTA), was ascribed to the leftover of the prereversal enhancement of the upward plasma drift. Though the EIA, WSA, MSNA, and EPTA are all associated with the upward plasma movement, the difference in the thermal evolution is ascribable to the geometry of drift in which the plasma moves across the geomagnetic field line for the EIA and the EPTA, while along the field line for the WSA and the MSNA.

Magsat equivalent source anomalies over the southeastern United States - Implications for crustal magnetization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruder, M. E.; Alexander, S. S.

1986-01-01

The Magsat crustal anomaly field depicts a previously-unidentified long-wavelength negative anomaly centered over southeastern Georgia. Examination of Magsat ascending and descending passes clearly identifies the anomalous region, despite the high-frequency noise present in the data. Using ancillary seismic, electrical conductivity, Bouguer gravity, and aeromagnetic data, a preliminary model of crustal magnetization for the southern Appalachian region is presented. A lower crust characterized by a pervasive negative magnetization contrast extends from the New York-Alabama lineament southeast to the Fall Line. In southern Georgia and eastern Alabama (coincident with the Brunswick Terrane), the model calls for lower crustal magnetization contrast of -2.4 A/m; northern Georgia and the Carolinas are modeled with contrasts of -1.5 A/m. Large-scale blocks in the upper crust which correspond to the Blue Ridge, Charlotte belt, and Carolina Slate belt, are modeled with magnetization contrasts of -1.2 A/m, 1.2 A/m, and 1.2 A/m respectively. The model accurately reproduces the amplitude of the observed low in the equivalent source Magsat anomaly field calculated at 325 km altitude and is spatially consistent with the 400 km lowpass-filtered aeromagnetic map of the region.

Effects of Sampling and Spatio/Temporal Granularity in Traffic Monitoring on Anomaly Detectability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishibashi, Keisuke; Kawahara, Ryoichi; Mori, Tatsuya; Kondoh, Tsuyoshi; Asano, Shoichiro

We quantitatively evaluate how sampling and spatio/temporal granularity in traffic monitoring affect the detectability of anomalous traffic. Those parameters also affect the monitoring burden, so network operators face a trade-off between the monitoring burden and detectability and need to know which are the optimal paramter values. We derive equations to calculate the false positive ratio and false negative ratio for given values of the sampling rate, granularity, statistics of normal traffic, and volume of anomalies to be detected. Specifically, assuming that the normal traffic has a Gaussian distribution, which is parameterized by its mean and standard deviation, we analyze how sampling and monitoring granularity change these distribution parameters. This analysis is based on observation of the backbone traffic, which exhibits spatially uncorrelated and temporally long-range dependence. Then we derive the equations for detectability. With those equations, we can answer the practical questions that arise in actual network operations: what sampling rate to set to find the given volume of anomaly, or, if the sampling is too high for actual operation, what granularity is optimal to find the anomaly for a given lower limit of sampling rate.

C -P -T anomaly matching in bosonic quantum field theory and spin chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulejmanpasic, Tin; Tanizaki, Yuya

2018-04-01

We consider the O (3 ) nonlinear sigma model with the θ term and its linear counterpart in 1+1D. The model has discrete time-reflection and space-reflection symmetries at any θ , and enjoys the periodicity in θ →θ +2 π . At θ =0 ,π it also has a charge-conjugation C symmetry. Gauging the discrete space-time reflection symmetries is interpreted as putting the theory on the nonorientable R P2 manifold, after which the 2 π periodicity of θ and the C symmetry at θ =π are lost. We interpret this observation as a mixed 't Hooft anomaly among charge-conjugation C , parity P , and time-reversal T symmetries when θ =π . Anomaly matching implies that in this case the ground state cannot be trivially gapped, as long as C ,P , and T are all good symmetries of the theory. We make several consistency checks with various semiclassical regimes, and with the exactly solvable XYZ model. We interpret this anomaly as an anomaly of the corresponding spin-half chains with translational symmetry, parity, and time reversal [but not involving the SO(3)-spin symmetry], requiring that the ground state is never trivially gapped, even if SO(3) spin symmetry is explicitly and completely broken. We also consider generalizations to C PN -1 models and show that the C -P -T anomaly exists for even N .

Evaluation of sliding baseline methods for spatial estimation for cluster detection in the biosurveillance system

PubMed Central

Xing, Jian; Burkom, Howard; Moniz, Linda; Edgerton, James; Leuze, Michael; Tokars, Jerome

2009-01-01

Background The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) BioSense system provides near-real time situational awareness for public health monitoring through analysis of electronic health data. Determination of anomalous spatial and temporal disease clusters is a crucial part of the daily disease monitoring task. Our study focused on finding useful anomalies at manageable alert rates according to available BioSense data history. Methods The study dataset included more than 3 years of daily counts of military outpatient clinic visits for respiratory and rash syndrome groupings. We applied four spatial estimation methods in implementations of space-time scan statistics cross-checked in Matlab and C. We compared the utility of these methods according to the resultant background cluster rate (a false alarm surrogate) and sensitivity to injected cluster signals. The comparison runs used a spatial resolution based on the facility zip code in the patient record and a finer resolution based on the residence zip code. Results Simple estimation methods that account for day-of-week (DOW) data patterns yielded a clear advantage both in background cluster rate and in signal sensitivity. A 28-day baseline gave the most robust results for this estimation; the preferred baseline is long enough to remove daily fluctuations but short enough to reflect recent disease trends and data representation. Background cluster rates were lower for the rash syndrome counts than for the respiratory counts, likely because of seasonality and the large scale of the respiratory counts. Conclusion The spatial estimation method should be chosen according to characteristics of the selected data streams. In this dataset with strong day-of-week effects, the overall best detection performance was achieved using subregion averages over a 28-day baseline stratified by weekday or weekend/holiday behavior. Changing the estimation method for particular scenarios involving different spatial resolution or other syndromes can yield further improvement. PMID:19615075

Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

A multiyear, global gridded fossil fuel CO2 emission data product: Evaluation and analysis of results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asefi-Najafabady, S.; Rayner, P. J.; Gurney, K. R.; McRobert, A.; Song, Y.; Coltin, K.; Huang, J.; Elvidge, C.; Baugh, K.

2014-09-01

High-resolution, global quantification of fossil fuel CO2 emissions is emerging as a critical need in carbon cycle science and climate policy. We build upon a previously developed fossil fuel data assimilation system (FFDAS) for estimating global high-resolution fossil fuel CO2 emissions. We have improved the underlying observationally based data sources, expanded the approach through treatment of separate emitting sectors including a new pointwise database of global power plants, and extended the results to cover a 1997 to 2010 time series at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Long-term trend analysis of the resulting global emissions shows subnational spatial structure in large active economies such as the United States, China, and India. These three countries, in particular, show different long-term trends and exploration of the trends in nighttime lights, and population reveal a decoupling of population and emissions at the subnational level. Analysis of shorter-term variations reveals the impact of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis with widespread negative emission anomalies across the U.S. and Europe. We have used a center of mass (CM) calculation as a compact metric to express the time evolution of spatial patterns in fossil fuel CO2 emissions. The global emission CM has moved toward the east and somewhat south between 1997 and 2010, driven by the increase in emissions in China and South Asia over this time period. Analysis at the level of individual countries reveals per capita CO2 emission migration in both Russia and India. The per capita emission CM holds potential as a way to succinctly analyze subnational shifts in carbon intensity over time. Uncertainties are generally lower than the previous version of FFDAS due mainly to an improved nightlight data set.

Atrioventricular depolarization differences identify coronary artery anomalies in Kawasaki disease.

PubMed

Cortez, Daniel; Sharma, Nandita; Jone, Pei-Ni

2017-03-01

Kawasaki disease (KD) is the leading cause of acquired heart disease in children. Signal average electrocardiogram changes in patients during the acute phase of KD with coronary artery anomalies (CAA) include depolarization changes. We set out to determine if 12-lead-derived atrioventricular depolarization differences can identify CAA in patients with KD. A blinded, retrospective case-control study of patients with KD was performed. Deep Q waves, corrected QT-intervals (QTc), spatial QRS-T angles, T-wave vector magnitudes (RMS-T), and a novel parameter for assessment of atrioventricular depolarization difference (the spatial PR angle) and a two dimensional PR angle were assessed. Comparisons between groups were performed to test for significant differences. One hundred one patients with KD were evaluated, with 68 having CAA (67.3%, mean age 3.6 ± 3.0 years, 82.6% male), and 32 without CAA (31.7%, mean age 2.7 ± 3.2 years, 70.4% male). The spatial PR angle significantly discriminated KD patients with CAA from those without, 59.7° ± 31.1° versus 41.6° ± 11.5° (p < .001). A spatial PR angle cutoff value of 56.9° gave positive/negative predictive values and odds ratios of 93.8%, 43.5%, and 11.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.6-52.2). The two dimensional PR angle either below 7° or above 92° gave positive/negative predictive values and odds ratios of 100.0%, 38.8%, and 21.1% (95% CI 1.2-362.8). No other parameters significantly differentiated the groups. Atrioventricular depolarization differences, measured by the spatial or two dimensional PR angle differentiate KD patients with CAA versus those without. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Arctic sea ice variability in the context of recent atmospheric circulation trends

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deser, C.; Walsh, J.E.; Timlin, M.S.

Sea ice is a sensitive component of the climate system, influenced by conditions in both the atmosphere and ocean. Variations in sea ice may in turn modulate climate by altering the surface albedo; the exchange of heat, moisture, and momentum between the atmosphere and ocean; and the upper ocean stratification in areas of deep water formation. The surface albedo effect is considered to be one of the dominant factors in the poleward amplification of global warming due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations simulated in many climate models. Forty years (1958--97) of reanalysis products and corresponding sea ice concentration data aremore » used to document Arctic sea ice variability and its association with surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) throughout the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. The dominant mode of winter (January-March) sea ice variability exhibits out-of-phase fluctuations between the western and eastern North Atlantic, together with a weaker dipole in the North Pacific. The time series of this mode has a high winter-to-winter autocorrelation (0.69) and is dominated by decadal-scale variations and a longer-term trend of diminishing ice cover east of Greenland and increasing ice cover west of Greenland. Associated with the dominant pattern of winter sea ice variability are large-scale changes in SAT and SLP that closely resemble the North Atlantic oscillation. The associated SAT and surface sensible and latent heat flux anomalies are largest over the portions of the marginal sea ice zone in which the trends of ice coverage have been greatest, although the well-documented warming of the northern continental regions is also apparent. the temporal and spatial relationships between the SLP and ice anomaly fields are consistent with the notion that atmospheric circulation anomalies force the sea ice variations. However, there appears to be a local response of the atmospheric circulation to the changing sea ice variations. However, there appears to be a local response of the atmospheric circulation to the changing sea ice cover east of Greenland. Specifically, cyclone frequencies have increased and mean SLPs have decreased over the retracted ice margin in the Greenland Sea, and these changes differ from those associated directly with the North Atlantic oscillation. The dominant mode of sea ice variability in summer (July-September) is more spatially uniform than that in winter. Summer ice extent for the Arctic as a whole has exhibited a nearly monotonic decline (-4% decade{sup {minus}1}) during the past 40 yr. Summer sea ice variations appear to be initiated by atmospheric circulation anomalies over the high Arctic in late spring. Positive ice-albedo feedback may account for the relatively long delay (2--3 months) between the time of atmospheric forcing and the maximum ice response, and it may have served to amplify the summer ice retreat.« less

Imaging CO2 reservoirs using muons borehole detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonneville, A.; Bonal, N.; Lintereur, A.; Mellors, R. J.; Paulsson, B. N. P.; Rowe, C. A.; Varner, G. S.; Kouzes, R.; Flygare, J.; Mostafanezhad, I.; Yamaoka, J. A. K.; Guardincerri, E.; Chapline, G.

2016-12-01

Monitoring of the post-injection fate of CO2 in subsurface reservoirs is of utmost importance. Generally, monitoring options are active methods, such as 4D seismic reflection or pressure measurements in monitoring wells. We present a method of 4D density tomography of subsurface CO2 reservoirs using cosmic-ray muon detectors deployed in a borehole. Although muon flux rapidly decreases with depth, preliminary analyses indicate that the muon technique is sufficiently sensitive to effectively map density variations caused by fluid displacement at depths consistent with proposed CO2reservoirs. The intensity of the muon flux is, to first order, inversely proportional to the density times the path length, with resolution increasing with measurement time. The primary technical challenge preventing deployment of this technology in subsurface locations is the lack of miniaturized muon-tracking detectors both capable of fitting in standard boreholes and that will be able to resist the harsh underground conditions (temperature, pressure, corrosion) for long periods of time. Such a detector with these capabilities has been developed through a collaboration supported by the U.S. Department of Energy. A prototype has been tested in underground laboratories during 2016. In particular, we will present results from a series of tests performed in a tunnel comparing efficiencies, and angular and position resolution to measurements collected at the same locations by large instruments developed by Los Alamos and Sandia National Laboratories. We will also present the results of simulations of muon detection for various CO2 reservoir situations and muon detector configurations. Finally, to improve imaging of 3D subsurface structures, a combination of seismic data, gravity data, and muons can be used. Because seismic waves, gravity anomalies, and muons are all sensitive to density, the combination of two or three of these measurements promises to be a powerful way to improve spatial resolution and reduce uncertainty. With sufficient crossing paths, the muon data can resolve spatial density anomalies, rather than simply a path-integrated flux variance. Several approaches for combining these three measurements will be presented and discussed.

Characterizing local biological hotspots in the Gulf of Maine using remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, Marta M.

Researchers increasingly advocate the use of ecosystem-based management (EBM) for managing complex marine ecosystems. This approach requires managers to focus on processes and cross-scale interactions, rather than individual components. However, they often lack appropriate tools and data sources to pursue this change in management approach. One method that has been proposed to understand the ecological complexity inherent in marine ecosystems is the study of biological hotspots. Biological hotspots are locations where organisms from different trophic levels aggregate to feed on abundant supplies, and they are considered a first step toward understanding the processes driving spatial and temporal heterogeneity in marine systems. Biological hotspots are supported by phytoplankton aggregations, which are characterized by high spatial and temporal variability. As a result, methods developed to locate biological hotspots in relatively stable terrestrial systems are not well suited for more dynamic marine ecosystems. The main objective of this thesis is thus to identify and characterize local-scale biological hotspots in the western side of the Gulf of Maine. The first chapter describes a new methodological framework with the steps needed to locate these types of hotspots in marine ecosystems using remote sensing datasets. Then, in the second chapter these hotspots are characterized using a novel metric that uses time series information and spatial statistics to account for both the temporal variability and spatial structure of these marine aggregations. This metric redefines biological hotspots as areas with a high probability of exhibiting positive anomalies of productivity compared to the expected regional seasonal pattern. Finally, the third chapter compares the resulting biological hotspots to fishery-dependent abundance indices of surface and benthic predators to determine the effect of the location and magnitude of phytoplankton aggregations on the rest of the ecosystem. Analyses indicate that the spatial scale and magnitude of biological hotspots in the Gulf of Maine depend on the location and time of the year. Results also show that these hotspots change over time in response to both short-term oceanographic processes and long-term climatic cycles. Finally, the new metric presented here facilitates the spatial comparison between different trophic levels, thus allowing interdisciplinary ecosystem-wide studies.

Using Tikhonov Regularization for Spatial Projections from CSR Regularized Spherical Harmonic GRACE Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Save, H.; Bettadpur, S. V.

2013-12-01

It has been demonstrated before that using Tikhonov regularization produces spherical harmonic solutions from GRACE that have very little residual stripes while capturing all the signal observed by GRACE within the noise level. This paper demonstrates a two-step process and uses Tikhonov regularization to remove the residual stripes in the CSR regularized spherical harmonic coefficients when computing the spatial projections. We discuss methods to produce mass anomaly grids that have no stripe features while satisfying the necessary condition of capturing all observed signal within the GRACE noise level.

Time-resolved contrast-enhanced MRA (TWIST) with gadofosveset trisodium in the classification of soft-tissue vascular anomalies in the head and neck in children following updated 2014 ISSVA classification: first report on systematic evaluation of MRI and TWIST in a cohort of 47 children.

PubMed

Higgins, L J; Koshy, J; Mitchell, S E; Weiss, C R; Carson, K A; Huisman, T A G M; Tekes, A

2016-01-01

To evaluate the relative accuracy of contrast-enhanced time-resolved angiography with interleaved stochastic trajectories versus conventional contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) following International Society for the Study of Vascular Anomalies updated 2014-based classification of soft-tissue vascular anomalies in the head and neck in children. Time-resolved angiography with interleaved stochastic trajectories versus conventional contrast-enhanced MRI of children with diagnosis of soft-tissue vascular anomalies in the head and neck referred for MRI between 2008 and 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Forty-seven children (0-18 years) were evaluated. Two paediatric neuroradiologists evaluated time-resolved MRA and conventional MRI in two different sessions (30 days apart). Blood-pool endovascular MRI contrast agent gadofosveset trisodium was used. The present cohort had the following diagnoses: infantile haemangioma (n=6), venous malformation (VM; n=23), lymphatic malformation (LM; n=16), arteriovenous malformation (AVM; n=2). Time-resolved MRA alone accurately classified 38/47 (81%) and conventional MRI 42/47 (89%), respectively. Although time-resolved MRA alone is slightly superior to conventional MRI alone for diagnosis of infantile haemangioma, conventional MRI is slightly better for diagnosis of venous and LMs. Neither time-resolved MRA nor conventional MRI was sufficient for accurate diagnosis of AVM in this cohort. Conventional MRI combined with time-resolved MRA accurately classified 44/47 cases (94%). Time-resolved MRA using gadofosveset trisodium can accurately classify soft-tissue vascular anomalies in the head and neck in children. The addition of time-resolved MRA to existing conventional MRI protocols provides haemodynamic information, assisting the diagnosis of vascular anomalies in the paediatric population at one-third of the dose of other MRI contrast agents. Copyright © 2015 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time series analysis of infrared satellite data for detecting thermal anomalies: a hybrid approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koeppen, W. C.; Pilger, E.; Wright, R.

2011-07-01

We developed and tested an automated algorithm that analyzes thermal infrared satellite time series data to detect and quantify the excess energy radiated from thermal anomalies such as active volcanoes. Our algorithm enhances the previously developed MODVOLC approach, a simple point operation, by adding a more complex time series component based on the methods of the Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) algorithm. Using test sites at Anatahan and Kīlauea volcanoes, the hybrid time series approach detected ~15% more thermal anomalies than MODVOLC with very few, if any, known false detections. We also tested gas flares in the Cantarell oil field in the Gulf of Mexico as an end-member scenario representing very persistent thermal anomalies. At Cantarell, the hybrid algorithm showed only a slight improvement, but it did identify flares that were undetected by MODVOLC. We estimate that at least 80 MODIS images for each calendar month are required to create good reference images necessary for the time series analysis of the hybrid algorithm. The improved performance of the new algorithm over MODVOLC will result in the detection of low temperature thermal anomalies that will be useful in improving our ability to document Earth's volcanic eruptions, as well as detecting low temperature thermal precursors to larger eruptions.

Blastogenetic associations: General considerations.

PubMed

Lubinsky, Mark

2015-11-01

Associations of anomalies, with VACTERL as the prototype, have been the source of much debate, including questions about the validity and definition of this category. Evidence is presented for a teratologic basis for associations involving interactions between disruptive events and specific vulnerabilities. Because the embryo is organized in time and space, differences in the timing, location, and severity of exposures will create variable sequelae for any specific vulnerability, creating associations. The blastogenetic stage of development involves distinct properties that affect the nature of associations arising during this time, including relatively undifferentiated developmental fields and causally nonspecific malformations. With this, single anomalies can be part of the spectrum of findings that comprise a specific association. A specific defect defines a subset of disturbances, biasing frequencies of other defects. Processes are basic, integrated, and general, so disruptions are often lethal, and can have multiple effects, accounting for high incidences of multiple anomalies, and overlaps between associations. Blastogenetic disturbances also do not affect the late "fine tuning" of minor anomalies, although pathogenetic sequences can occur. This model suggests that certain combinations of congenital anomalies can arise from causally nonspecific teratogenetic fields determined by timing, location, and vulnerabilities, rather than polytopic developmental fields. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The association of spacecraft anomalies with electron/proton particle fluxes at different orbits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, K.; Moon, Y. J.

2016-12-01

In this study, we investigate 195 satellite anomaly data from 1998 to 2010 from Satellite News Digest (SND) to understand the association between spacecraft anomaly and space weather condition. The spacecraft anomalies are classified into Attitude & Propulsion, Power, Control, Telemetry, Instrument and unknown. For the investigation we divide these data according to the spacecraft orbit and launched year. Spacecraft's orbits are classified into the following two groups : (1) high altitude and low inclination, and (2) low altitude and high inclination. Launched year of spacecraft are divided into two groups: 1991 1998 and 1999 2007. We examine the association between these anomaly data and daily peak particle (electron and proton) flux data from GOES as well as their occurrence rates. To determine the association, we use two criteria that electron criterion is >10,000 pfu and proton criterion is >100 pfu. Main results from this study are as follows. First, the number of days satisfying the criteria for electron flux has a peak near a week before the anomaly day and decreases from the peak day to the anomaly day, while that for proton flux has a peak near the anomaly day. Second, we found a similar pattern for the mean daily peak particle (electron and proton) flux as a function of day before the anomaly day. Third, an examination of multiple spacecraft anomaly events, which are likely to occur by severe space weather effects, shows that anomalies mostly occur either when electron fluxes are in the declining stage, or when daily proton peak fluxes are strongly enhanced. Fourth, the time delay between the anomaly day and the day having the highest daily peak electron flux for the recent launching period (1999-2007) is noticeably larger than those for the older periods, implying that the anomaly characteristics associated with electron flux change with time.

Development of a Global Evaporative Stress Index Based on Thermal and Microwave LST towards Improved Monitoring of Agricultural Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hain, C.; Anderson, M. C.; Otkin, J.; Holmes, T. R.; Gao, F.

2017-12-01

This presentation will describe the development of a global agricultural monitoring tool, with a focus on providing early warning of developing vegetation stress for agricultural decision-makers and stakeholders at relatively high spatial resolution (5-km). The tool is based on remotely sensed estimates of evapotranspiration, retrieved via energy balance principals using observations of land surface temperature. The Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) represents anomalies in the ratio of actual-to-potential ET generated with the ALEXI surface energy balance model. The LST inputs to ESI have been shown to provide early warning information about the development of vegetation stress with stress-elevated canopy temperatures observed well before a decrease in greenness is detected in remotely sensed vegetation indices. As a diagnostic indicator of actual ET, the ESI requires no information regarding antecedent precipitation or soil moisture storage capacity - the current available moisture to vegetation is deduced directly from the remotely sensed LST signal. This signal also inherently accounts for both precipitation and non-precipitation related inputs/sinks to the plant-available soil moisture pool (e.g., irrigation) which can modify crop response to rainfall anomalies. Independence from precipitation data is a benefit for global agricultural monitoring applications due to sparseness in existing ground-based precipitation networks, and time delays in public reporting. Several enhancements to the current ESI framework will be addressed as requested from project stakeholders: (a) integration of "all-sky" MW Ka-band LST retrievals to augment "clear-sky" thermal-only ESI in persistently cloudy regions; (b) operational production of ESI Rapid Change Indices which provide important early warning information related to onset of actual vegetation stress; and (c) assessment of ESI as a predictor of global yield anomalies; initial studies have shown the ability of intra-seasonal ESI to provide an early indication of at-harvest agricultural yield anomalies.

Insights into contaminant transport from unconventional oil and gas developments from analog system analysis of methane-bearing thermal springs in the northern Canadian Rocky Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferguson, Grant; Grasby, Stephen E.

2018-03-01

Natural gas is currently being produced from shales of the Montney and Liard basins in western Canada. Production requires hydraulic fracturing due to the low permeability of the shales in the basins. Stratigraphically equivalent shales are present in the northern Canadian Rocky Mountains. Thermal springs with notable hydrocarbon concentrations occur where large-scale faults intersect the same shale units that are the focus of gas development, indicating that under certain circumstances, connection of deep fractured shales to the land surface is possible. To constrain these conditions, simulations were conducted for the spring with the highest hydrocarbon flux (Toad River Spring), results of which indicate that in order to supply sufficient water to a fault to support measurable advection, the effective permeability of the shales in these structurally deformed areas must be one to four orders of magnitude higher than in areas of active gas production to the east. The spatial scale of enhanced permeability is much greater than that which is achieved by hydraulic fracturing and the mechanism of maintaining high pressures at depth is more persistent in time. Examination of groundwater velocities suggests that upward migration of solutes from hydraulic fracturing may take decades to centuries. Results also indicate that any temperature anomaly will be associated with transport along a fault at such velocities. No such temperature anomaly has been documented in regions with unconventional oil and gas development to date. Such an anomaly would be diagnostic of a deep solute source.

The FAO/NASA/NLR Artemis system - An integrated concept for environmental monitoring by satellite in support of food/feed security and desert locust surveillance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hielkema, J. U.; Howard, J. A.; Tucker, C. J.; Van Ingen Schenau, H. A.

1987-01-01

The African real time environmental monitoring using imaging satellites (Artemis) system, which should monitor precipitation and vegetation conditions on a continental scale, is presented. The hardware and software characteristics of the system are illustrated and the Artemis databases are outlined. Plans for the system include the use of hourly digital Meteosat data and daily NOAA/AVHRR data to study environmental conditions. Planned mapping activities include monthly rainfall anomaly maps, normalized difference vegetation index maps for ten day and monthly periods with a spatial resolution of 7.6 km, ten day crop/rangeland moisture availability maps, and desert locust potential breeding activity factor maps for a plague prevention program.

Feasibility study of short-term earthquake prediction using ionospheric anomalies immediately before large earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heki, K.; He, L.

2017-12-01

We showed that positive and negative electron density anomalies emerge above the fault immediately before they rupture, 40/20/10 minutes before Mw9/8/7 earthquakes (Heki, 2011 GRL; Heki and Enomoto, 2013 JGR; He and Heki 2017 JGR). These signals are stronger for earthquake with larger Mw and under higher background vertical TEC (total electron conetent) (Heki and Enomoto, 2015 JGR). The epicenter, the positive and the negative anomalies align along the local geomagnetic field (He and Heki, 2016 GRL), suggesting electric fields within ionosphere are responsible for making the anomalies (Kuo et al., 2014 JGR; Kelley et al., 2017 JGR). Here we suppose the next Nankai Trough earthquake that may occur within a few tens of years in Southwest Japan, and will discuss if we can recognize its preseismic signatures in TEC by real-time observations with GNSS.During high geomagnetic activities, large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LSTID) often propagate from auroral ovals toward mid-latitude regions, and leave similar signatures to preseismic anomalies. This is a main obstacle to use preseismic TEC changes for practical short-term earthquake prediction. In this presentation, we show that the same anomalies appeared 40 minutes before the mainshock above northern Australia, the geomagnetically conjugate point of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake epicenter. This not only demonstrates that electric fields play a role in making the preseismic TEC anomalies, but also offers a possibility to discriminate preseismic anomalies from those caused by LSTID. By monitoring TEC in the conjugate areas in the two hemisphere, we can recognize anomalies with simultaneous onset as those caused by within-ionosphere electric fields (e.g. preseismic anomalies, night-time MSTID) and anomalies without simultaneous onset as gravity-wave origin disturbances (e.g. LSTID, daytime MSTID).

Evidence for a physical linkage between galactic cosmic rays and regional climate time series

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, C.A.

2007-01-01

The effects of solar variability on regional climate time series were examined using a sequence of physical connections between total solar irradiance (TSI) modulated by galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), and ocean and atmospheric patterns that affect precipitation and streamflow. The solar energy reaching the Earth's surface and its oceans is thought to be controlled through an interaction between TSI and GCRs, which are theorized to ionize the atmosphere and increase cloud formation and its resultant albedo. High (low) GCR flux may promote cloudiness (clear skies) and higher (lower) albedo at the same time that TSI is lowest (highest) in the solar cycle which in turn creates cooler (warmer) ocean temperature anomalies. These anomalies have been shown to affect atmospheric flow patterns and ultimately affect precipitation over the Midwestern United States. This investigation identified a relation among TSI and geomagnetic index aa (GI-AA), and streamflow in the Mississippi River Basin for the period 1878-2004. The GI-AA was used as a proxy for GCRs. The lag time between the solar signal and streamflow in the Mississippi River at St. Louis, Missouri is approximately 34 years. The current drought (1999-2007) in the Mississippi River Basin appears to be caused by a period of lower solar activity that occurred between 1963 and 1977. There appears to be a solar "fingerprint" that can be detected in climatic time series in other regions of the world, with each series having a unique lag time between the solar signal and the hydroclimatic response. A progression of increasing lag times can be spatially linked to the ocean conveyor belt, which may transport the solar signal over a time span of several decades. The lag times for any one region vary slightly and may be linked to the fluctuations in the velocity of the ocean conveyor belt.

The Lithospheric Geoid as a Constraint on Plate Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, R. M.; Coblentz, D. D.

2015-12-01

100 years after Wegener's pioneering work there is still considerable debate about the dynamics of present-day plate motions. A better understanding of present-day dynamics is key to a better understanding of the supercontinent cycle. The Earth's gravity field is one of the primary data sets to help constrain horizontal density contrasts, and hence plate dynamic forces. Previous work has shown that the global average for the geoid step up from old oceanic lithosphere across passive continental margins to stable continental lithosphere is about 6-9m, and the global average for the geoid anomaly associated with cooling oceanic lithosphere (the so-called "ridge push") is 10-12m. The ridge geoid anomaly corresponds to a net force of ~3x1012N/m (averaged over the thickness of the lithosphere) due to 'ridge push.' However, for individual continental margins and mid-ocean ridge systems, there is considerable variation in the geoid step and geoid anomaly and consequently the associated forces contributing to the stress field. We explore the variation in geoid step across passive continental margins looking for correlations with age of continental breakup (and hence place within the supercontinent cycle), hot spot tracks, continental plate velocities, long-wavelength geoid energy (that may be masking signal), and small scale convection. For mid-ocean ridges, we explore variations in geoid anomaly looking for correlations with plate spreading rates, hot spot tracks, long-wavelength geoid energy (that may be masking signal), and small scale convection. We use a band-pass spherical harmonic filter on the full geoid (e.g., EGM2008-WGS84, complete to spherical harmonic degree and order 2159) between orders 6 and 80. The evaluation of the role of spatial variations in the geoid gradient for cooling oceanic lithosphere and across the continental margin in the dynamics of the intraplate stress field requires high spatial resolution modeling. We perform a high resolution finite element analysis (~35,000 elements for a spatial resolution of approximately 50 km) for the North American plate, where previous lower resolution modeling has shown the importance of the lithospheric cooling (ridge push) force to model the broad scale stress patterns observed from the middle of the continent to the Mid-Atlantic ridge.

Spatiotemporal models for data-anomaly detection in dynamic environmental monitoring campaigns

Treesearch

E.W. Dereszynski; T.G. Dietterich

2011-01-01

The ecological sciences have benefited greatly from recent advances in wireless sensor technologies. These technologies allow researchers to deploy networks of automated sensors, which can monitor a landscape at very fine temporal and spatial scales. However, these networks are subject to harsh conditions, which lead to malfunctions in individual sensors and failures...

Detection of Anomalous Machining Damages in Inconel 718 and TI 6-4 by Eddy Current Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, C. C. H.; Shimon, M.; Nakagawa, N.

2010-02-01

This paper reports on an eddy current (EC) study aimed at detecting anomalous machining damages in Inconel 718 and Ti 6-4 samples, including (i) surface discontinuities such as re-depositing of chips onto the machined surface, and (ii) microstructural damages manifested as a white surface layer and a subsurface layer of distorted grains, typically tens of microns thick. A series of pristine and machine-damaged coupons were studied by EC scans using a differential probe operated at 2 MHz to detect discontinuous surface anomalies, and by swept high frequency EC (SHFEC) measurements from 0.5 MHz to 65.5 MHz using proprietary detection coils to detect surface microstructural damages. In general, the EC c-scan data from machine-damaged surfaces show spatial variations with larger standard deviations than those from the undamaged surfaces. In some cases, the c-scan images exhibit characteristic bipolar indications in good spatial correlation with surface anomalies revealed by optical microscopy and laser profilometry. Results of the SHFEC measurements indicate a reduced near-surface conductivity of the damaged surfaces compared to the undamaged surfaces.

On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature

PubMed Central

Stips, Adolf; Macias, Diego; Coughlan, Clare; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Liang, X. San

2016-01-01

We use a newly developed technique that is based on the information flow concept to investigate the causal structure between the global radiative forcing and the annual global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMTA) since 1850. Our study unambiguously shows one-way causality between the total Greenhouse Gases and GMTA. Specifically, it is confirmed that the former, especially CO2, are the main causal drivers of the recent warming. A significant but smaller information flow comes from aerosol direct and indirect forcing, and on short time periods, volcanic forcings. In contrast the causality contribution from natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic forcing) to the long term trend is not significant. The spatial explicit analysis reveals that the anthropogenic forcing fingerprint is significantly regionally varying in both hemispheres. On paleoclimate time scales, however, the cause-effect direction is reversed: temperature changes cause subsequent CO2/CH4 changes. PMID:26900086

Linear dynamical modes as new variables for data-driven ENSO forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavrilov, Andrey; Seleznev, Aleksei; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander; Kurths, Juergen

2018-05-01

A new data-driven model for analysis and prediction of spatially distributed time series is proposed. The model is based on a linear dynamical mode (LDM) decomposition of the observed data which is derived from a recently developed nonlinear dimensionality reduction approach. The key point of this approach is its ability to take into account simple dynamical properties of the observed system by means of revealing the system's dominant time scales. The LDMs are used as new variables for empirical construction of a nonlinear stochastic evolution operator. The method is applied to the sea surface temperature anomaly field in the tropical belt where the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode of variability. The advantage of LDMs versus traditionally used empirical orthogonal function decomposition is demonstrated for this data. Specifically, it is shown that the new model has a competitive ENSO forecast skill in comparison with the other existing ENSO models.

Skillful regional prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bushuk, Mitchell; Msadek, Rym; Winton, Michael; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Gudgel, Rich; Rosati, Anthony; Yang, Xiaosong

2017-05-01

Recent Arctic sea ice seasonal prediction efforts and forecast skill assessments have primarily focused on pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE). In this work, we move toward stakeholder-relevant spatial scales, investigating the regional forecast skill of Arctic sea ice in a Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) seasonal prediction system. Using a suite of retrospective initialized forecasts spanning 1981-2015 made with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land model, we show that predictions of detrended regional SIE are skillful at lead times up to 11 months. Regional prediction skill is highly region and target month dependent and generically exceeds the skill of an anomaly persistence forecast. We show for the first time that initializing the ocean subsurface in a seasonal prediction system can yield significant regional skill for winter SIE. Similarly, as suggested by previous work, we find that sea ice thickness initial conditions provide a crucial source of skill for regional summer SIE.

Doppler tracking in time-dependent cosmological spacetimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giulini, Domenico; Carrera, Matteo

I will discuss the theoretical problems associated with Doppler tracking in time dependent background geometries, where ordinary Newtonian kinematics fails. A derivation of an exact general-relativistic formula for the two-way Doppler tracking of a spacecraft in homogeneous and isotropic Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) spacetimes is presented, as well as a controlled approximation in McVittie spacetimes representing an FLRW background with a single spherically-symmetric inhomogeneity (e.g. a single star or black hole). The leading-order corrections of the acceleration as compared to the Newtonian expression are calculated, which are due to retardation and cosmological expansion and which in the Solar System turn out to be significantly below the scale (nanometer per square-second) set by the Pioneer Anomaly. Last, but not least, I discuss kinematical ambiguities connected with notions of "simultaneity" and "spatial distance", which, in principle, also lead to tracking corrections.

Spatial-temporal variations of seismic noise and their relation to wind, rivers, and basins in central Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K.; Tape, C.; Bruton, C. P.; West, M. E.

2016-12-01

Continuous seismic recordings-or ambient noise-provide means for time-dependent monitoring of site conditions. Frequency-domain amplitude spectra of seismic recordings can be used to characterize time-dependent variations as a function of period (or frequency). Spatial variations can be characterized by using a set of stations across a large region. We analyze time-dependent ambient noise spectra from stations across central Alaska with three purposes. First, we are interested in monitoring the station performance and quality of a new array (FLATS) of 13 posthole seismometers near the Tanana River in Minto Flats. Second, we want to understand time-dependent threshold levels for earthquake detection: when noise is high, earthquake detections are low. Third, we are interested in identifying the effects of nature and Earth structure on seismic stations at different spatial-temporal scales. Our results show that seismic stations are sensitive to variations in wind speed and river flow. Correlations between wind speed and long-period (>10 seconds) seismic noise variations are probably due to tilt effects that have been previously documented. We identify a seismic signal at 10 Hz that is present only on stations close (<100 m) to the main channel of the Tanana river. The 10-Hz signal is strongly correlated with river gage height during summer and weakly correlated during the winter, when the river surface is covered in 1 m of ice. Spatial correlations among stations reveal large variations at shorter time scales (days); these could be due to weather anomalies. The amplitude of seismic noise at periods 2-10 s is strongly influenced by the thickness of sediment, which ranges from 0 m at bedrock sites to 6000 m at sites in the deepest part of Nenana basin. Our analysis allows us to better monitor the performance of temporary and permanent seismic stations, and to understand the physical causes of time-dependent noise variations in Alaska. Our findings show that seismic stations near rivers can potentially be used to monitor the flow of the river during summer and during ice-covered winter, raising the possibility for monitoring river ice break-up during April.

PLAT: An Automated Fault and Behavioural Anomaly Detection Tool for PLC Controlled Manufacturing Systems.

PubMed

Ghosh, Arup; Qin, Shiming; Lee, Jooyeoun; Wang, Gi-Nam

2016-01-01

Operational faults and behavioural anomalies associated with PLC control processes take place often in a manufacturing system. Real time identification of these operational faults and behavioural anomalies is necessary in the manufacturing industry. In this paper, we present an automated tool, called PLC Log-Data Analysis Tool (PLAT) that can detect them by using log-data records of the PLC signals. PLAT automatically creates a nominal model of the PLC control process and employs a novel hash table based indexing and searching scheme to satisfy those purposes. Our experiments show that PLAT is significantly fast, provides real time identification of operational faults and behavioural anomalies, and can execute within a small memory footprint. In addition, PLAT can easily handle a large manufacturing system with a reasonable computing configuration and can be installed in parallel to the data logging system to identify operational faults and behavioural anomalies effectively.

PLAT: An Automated Fault and Behavioural Anomaly Detection Tool for PLC Controlled Manufacturing Systems

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Arup; Qin, Shiming; Lee, Jooyeoun

2016-01-01

Operational faults and behavioural anomalies associated with PLC control processes take place often in a manufacturing system. Real time identification of these operational faults and behavioural anomalies is necessary in the manufacturing industry. In this paper, we present an automated tool, called PLC Log-Data Analysis Tool (PLAT) that can detect them by using log-data records of the PLC signals. PLAT automatically creates a nominal model of the PLC control process and employs a novel hash table based indexing and searching scheme to satisfy those purposes. Our experiments show that PLAT is significantly fast, provides real time identification of operational faults and behavioural anomalies, and can execute within a small memory footprint. In addition, PLAT can easily handle a large manufacturing system with a reasonable computing configuration and can be installed in parallel to the data logging system to identify operational faults and behavioural anomalies effectively. PMID:27974882

Real-time Bayesian anomaly detection in streaming environmental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, David J.; Minsker, Barbara S.; Amir, Eyal

2009-04-01

With large volumes of data arriving in near real time from environmental sensors, there is a need for automated detection of anomalous data caused by sensor or transmission errors or by infrequent system behaviors. This study develops and evaluates three automated anomaly detection methods using dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), which perform fast, incremental evaluation of data as they become available, scale to large quantities of data, and require no a priori information regarding process variables or types of anomalies that may be encountered. This study investigates these methods' abilities to identify anomalies in eight meteorological data streams from Corpus Christi, Texas. The results indicate that DBN-based detectors, using either robust Kalman filtering or Rao-Blackwellized particle filtering, outperform a DBN-based detector using Kalman filtering, with the former having false positive/negative rates of less than 2%. These methods were successful at identifying data anomalies caused by two real events: a sensor failure and a large storm.

Preliminary Analyses of Beidou Signal-In Anomaly Since 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Y.; Ren, J.; Liu, W.

2016-06-01

As BeiDou navigation system has been operational since December 2012. There is an increasing desire to use multiple constellation to improve positioning performance. The signal-in-space (SIS) anomaly caused by the ground control and the space vehicle is one of the major threats to affect the integrity. For a young Global Navigation Satellite System, knowledge about SIS anomalies in history is very important for not only assessing the SIS integrity performance of a constellation but also providing the assumption for ARAIM (Advanced Receiver Autonomous Integrity Monitoring). In this paper, the broadcast ephemerides and the precise ones are pre-processed for avoiding the false anomaly identification. The SIS errors over the period of Mar. 2013-Feb. 2016 are computed by comparing the broadcast ephemerides with the precise ones. The time offsets between GPST (GPS time) and BDT (BeiDou time) are estimated and removed by an improved estimation algorithm. SIS worst-UREs are computed and a RMS criteria are investigated to identify the SIS anomalies. The results show that the probability of BeiDou SIS anomalies is in 10-3 level in last three years. Even though BeiDou SIS integrity performance currently cannot match the GPS integrity performances, the result indicates that BeiDou has a tendency to improve its integrity performance.

Precursory Anomaly in VLF/LF Recordings Prior to the July 30th, 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buyuksarac, Aydin; Pınar, Ali; Kosaroglu, Sinan

2010-05-01

An international project network consisting of five receivers for sampling LF and VLF radio signals has been going on to record the data in Europe from different transmission stations around the World. One of them was established in Resadiye, Turkey, located just on the North Anatolian Fault Zone. The receiver works in VLF (16.4, 21.75, 37.5 and 45.9 kHz) and LF (153, 180, 183, 216 and 270 kHz) bands monitoring ten frequencies with one minute sampling interval. An earthquake of Mw = 4.9 took place 225 km away from the VLF/LF station at the eastern tip of the Erzincan basin at 4 km depth on July 30, 2009. We observed some anomalies on the radio signals (37.5 and 153 kHz) that initiated about 7 days before the earthquake and disappeared soon after the earthquake. We attribute this anomaly to the Mw=4.9 earthquake as a seismo-electromagnetic precursor. The radio anomaly that appeared 7 days before the occurrence of the 2009 Erzincan earthquake is in good agreement with other results indicating precursory anomalies in the project network mostly observed in seismically active countries such as Italy and Greece. Several data processing stages were applied to the data. Firstly, we processed the time series of the radio signals to understand how the frequency content of the anomaly differs from that of the normal trend. For this purpose we selected two time windows; one covering the anomaly period and the other spanning a normal period. The selected time window length was a 6 day. The sampling interval and the length of the time window limit the observed spectra from 120 seconds to six days. We identified a significant bias (drop) for the signal energy of the anomaly period at the whole frequency band. Secondly, in order to clearly depict the anomaly we estimated the daily Rayleigh Energy of the calculated spectra following the Parseval's theorem. We initiated the estimations well before the anomaly period. Such calculations gave an obvious sign for the impending event. Thirdly, we constructed a spectrogram including the whole frequency band of the data from fortnight before the earthquake to a week after the earthquake. The strongest anomaly in the spectrogram was identified for the periods larger than 60 hours. In earthquake prediction studies it is crucial to understand the source of the anomaly. Since the sources of the anomaly we are interested in are the earthquakes we tried to derive information on the properties of the earthquake that generated our anomaly in the radio signals. Within this frame, we analyzed the broadband data at several local seismic stations that recorded the event and estimated source parameters such as centroid moment tensor, source radius and stress drop. Our analysis shows that the event was a shallow one showing predominantly normal faulting mechanism and was associated with extremely high stress drop with an average value of about 250 bars.

Satellite GN and C Anomaly Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Brent; Stoneking, Eric

2003-01-01

On-orbit anomaly records for satellites launched from 1990 through 2001 are reviewed to determine recent trends of un-manned space mission critical failures. Anomalies categorized by subsystems show that Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) subsystems have a high number of anomalies that result in a mission critical failure when compared to other subsystems. A mission critical failure is defined as a premature loss of a satellite or loss of its ability to perform its primary mission during its design life. The majority of anomalies are shown to occur early in the mission, usually within one year from launch. GN&C anomalies are categorized by cause and equipment type involved. A statistical analysis of the data is presented for all anomalies compared with the GN&C anomalies for various mission types, orbits and time periods. Conclusions and recommendations are presented for improving mission success and reliability.

Surface ocean carbon isotope anomalies on glacial terminations: An alternative view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lund, D. C.; Cote, M.; Schmittner, A.

2016-12-01

Late Pleistocene glacial terminations are characterized by surface ocean carbon isotope minima on a global scale. During the last deglaciation (i.e. Termination 1), planktonic foraminiferal δ13C anomalies occurred in the Atlantic, Indian, Pacific, and Southern Oceans. Despite the apparently ubiquitous nature of δ13C anomalies on glacial terminations, their cause remains a matter of ongoing debate. The prevailing view is that isotopically light carbon from the abyss was upwelled in the Southern Ocean, resulting in outgassing of 13C-depleted carbon to the atmosphere and its advection to lower latitudes via mode and intermediate waters (Spero and Lea, 2002). Alternatively, carbon isotope minima may be driven by weakening of the biological pump related to circulation-driven changes in the oceanic preformed nutrient budget (Schmittner and Lund, 2015). Here we assess the deep upwelling and biological pump hypotheses using a new compilation of 70 globally-distributed planktonic δ13C records from the published literature. We find that 1) the mean deglacial δ13C anomaly is similar in all ocean basins, 2) the eastern tropical Pacific yields smaller mean δ13C anomalies than the western tropical Pacific, and 3) δ13C anomalies in the Southern Ocean decrease with increasing latitude. Our results are generally inconsistent with the deep upwelling hypothesis, which predicts that the δ13C signal should be largest in the Southern Ocean and upwelling regions. Instead, the spatial pattern in δ13C anomalies supports the biological pump hypothesis, which predicts that reduced export of light carbon from the euphotic zone triggers negative carbon isotope anomalies in the surface ocean and positive anomalies at intermediate depths. Upwelling of relatively 13C-enriched intermediate waters tends to moderate carbon isotope minima in upwelling regions. Our results suggest that the initial rise in atmospheric CO2 during Termination 1 was likely due to weakening of the biological pump associated with a reduction in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, consistent with model results (Schmittner and Lund, 2015). Spero, H., and D. Lea (2002) Science 296, 522-525. Schmittner, A., and D. Lund (2015) Climate of the Past 11, 135-152.

Characterizing habitat suitability for a central-place forager in a dynamic marine environment.

PubMed

Briscoe, Dana K; Fossette, Sabrina; Scales, Kylie L; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J; Maxwell, Sara M; McHuron, Elizabeth A; Robinson, Patrick W; Kuhn, Carey; Costa, Daniel P; Crowder, Larry B; Lewison, Rebecca L

2018-03-01

Characterizing habitat suitability for a marine predator requires an understanding of the environmental heterogeneity and variability over the range in which a population moves during a particular life cycle. Female California sea lions ( Zalophus californianus ) are central-place foragers and are particularly constrained while provisioning their young. During this time, habitat selection is a function of prey availability and proximity to the rookery, which has important implications for reproductive and population success. We explore how lactating females may select habitat and respond to environmental variability over broad spatial and temporal scales within the California Current System. We combine near-real-time remotely sensed satellite oceanography, animal tracking data ( n  = 72) from November to February over multiple years (2003-2009) and Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) to determine the probability of sea lion occurrence based on environmental covariates. Results indicate that sea lion presence is associated with cool ( <14°C ), productive waters, shallow depths, increased eddy activity, and positive sea-level anomalies. Predictive habitat maps generated from these biophysical associations suggest winter foraging areas are spatially consistent in the nearshore and offshore environments, except during the 2004-2005 winter, which coincided with an El Niño event. Here, we show how a species distribution model can provide broadscale information on the distribution of female California sea lions during an important life history stage and its implications for population dynamics and spatial management.

Thermal and TEC anomalies detection using an intelligent hybrid system around the time of the Saravan, Iran, (Mw = 7.7) earthquake of 16 April 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhoondzadeh, M.

2014-02-01

A powerful earthquake of Mw = 7.7 struck the Saravan region (28.107° N, 62.053° E) in Iran on 16 April 2013. Up to now nomination of an automated anomaly detection method in a non linear time series of earthquake precursor has been an attractive and challenging task. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) have revealed strong potentials in accurate time series prediction. This paper presents the first study of an integration of ANN and PSO method in the research of earthquake precursors to detect the unusual variations of the thermal and total electron content (TEC) seismo-ionospheric anomalies induced by the strong earthquake of Saravan. In this study, to overcome the stagnation in local minimum during the ANN training, PSO as an optimization method is used instead of traditional algorithms for training the ANN method. The proposed hybrid method detected a considerable number of anomalies 4 and 8 days preceding the earthquake. Since, in this case study, ionospheric TEC anomalies induced by seismic activity is confused with background fluctuations due to solar activity, a multi-resolution time series processing technique based on wavelet transform has been applied on TEC signal variations. In view of the fact that the accordance in the final results deduced from some robust methods is a convincing indication for the efficiency of the method, therefore the detected thermal and TEC anomalies using the ANN + PSO method were compared to the results with regard to the observed anomalies by implementing the mean, median, Wavelet, Kalman filter, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) methods. The results indicate that the ANN + PSO method is quite promising and deserves serious attention as a new tool for thermal and TEC seismo anomalies detection.

Southern Ocean air-sea heat flux, SST spatial anomalies, and implications for multi-decadal upper ocean heat content trends.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamsitt, V. M.; Talley, L. D.; Mazloff, M. R.

2014-12-01

The Southern Ocean displays a zonal dipole (wavenumber one) pattern in sea surface temperature (SST), with a cool zonal anomaly in the Atlantic and Indian sectors and a warm zonal anomaly in the Pacific sector, associated with the large northward excursion of the Malvinas and southeastward flow of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). To the north of the cool Indian sector is the warm, narrow Agulhas Return Current (ARC). Air-sea heat flux is largely the inverse of this SST pattern, with ocean heat gain in the Atlantic/Indian, cooling in the southeastward-flowing ARC, and cooling in the Pacific, based on adjusted fluxes from the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE), a ⅙° eddy permitting model constrained to all available in situ data. This heat flux pattern is dominated by turbulent heat loss from the ocean (latent and sensible), proportional to perturbations in the difference between SST and surface air temperature, which are maintained by ocean advection. Locally in the Indian sector, intense heat loss along the ARC is contrasted by ocean heat gain of 0.11 PW south of the ARC. The IPCC AR5 50 year depth-averaged 0-700 m temperature trend shows surprising similarities in its spatial pattern, with upper ocean warming in the ARC contrasted by cooling to the south. Using diagnosed heat budget terms from the most recent (June 2014) 6-year run of the SOSE we find that surface cooling in the ARC is balanced by heating from south-eastward advection by the current whereas heat gain in the ACC is balanced by cooling due to northward Ekman transport driven by strong westerly winds. These results suggest that spatial patterns in multi-decadal upper ocean temperature trends depend on regional variations in upper ocean dynamics.

Equatorial temperature anomaly during solar minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhasini, R.; Raghavarao, R.; Mayr, H. G.; Hoegy, W. R.; Wharton, L. E.

2001-11-01

We show evidence for the occurrence of the equatorial temperature anomaly (ETA) during solar minimum by analyzing the temperature and total ion density data from the Neutral Atmosphere Temperature Experiment (NATE) and the Cylindrical Electrostatic Probe (CEP), respectively, on board the Atmospheric Explorer-E satellite. The chosen data refer to a height of ~254 km in the African and Asian longitude sector (340.1°E-200°E) during a summer season in the Southern Hemisphere. As during the solar maximum period, the spatial characteristics of the ETA are similar to those of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). A minimum in the gas temperature is collocated with the minimum in the ion density at the dip equator, and a temperature maximum on the south side of the equator is collocated with the density maximum of the EIA. The daytime behavior of ETA formation is about the same as that of EIA as both of them are clearly present at around 1300 and 1400 local solar time (LST) only. At 1400 LST the difference between the temperatures at the crest and the trough (ETA strength) reaches a maximum value of about 100°K which is ~14% of the temperature at the trough. Like the EIA, the ETA also suddenly disappears after 1400 LST. Thus the EIA appears to be a prerequisite for the ETA formation. During the premidnight time (2200 LST), however, while the EIA is nonexistent, the temperature distribution forms a pattern opposite to that at 1400 LST in the daytime. It shows a maximum around the dip equator and a broad minimum at the daytime crest region where the postsunset cooling also is faster and occurs earlier than at the dip equator. This nighttime maximum appears to be related to the signature of the midnight temperature maximum (MTM). Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter (MSIS) model temperatures, in general, are higher than the observed average temperatures for the summer season and in particular for the region around the dip equator around noon hours.

Solar Cycle Variations of SABER CO2 and MLS H2O in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, C. C. J.; Chang, L. C.; Liang, M. C.; Qian, L.; Yue, J.; Russell, J. M., III; Mlynczak, M. G.

2017-12-01

This work aims to present the solar cycle variations of SABER CO2 and MLS H2O in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere region. These observations are then compared to SD-WACCM outputs of CO2 and H2O in order to understand their physical mechanisms. After which, we attempt to model their solar cycle variations using the default TIME-GCM and the TIME-GCM with MERRA reanalysis as lower-boundary conditions. Comparing the outputs of the default TIME-GCM and TIME-GCM with MERRA will give us insight into the importance of solar forcing and lower atmospheric forcing on the solar cycle variations of CO2 and H2O. The solar cycle influence in the parameters are calculated by doing a multiple linear regression with the F10.7 index. The solar cycle of SABER CO2 is reliable above 1e-2 mb and below 1e-3 mb. Preliminary results from the observations show that SABER CO2 has a stronger negative anomaly due to the solar cycle over the winter hemisphere. MLS H2O is reliable until 1e-2. Preliminary results from the observations show that MLS H2O also has a stronger negative anomaly due to the solar cycle over the winter hemisphere. Both SD-WACCM and the default TIME-GCM reproduce these stronger anomalies over the winter hemisphere. An analysis of the tendency equations in SD-WACCM and default TIME-GCM then reveal that for CO2, the stronger winter anomaly may be attributed to stronger downward transport over the winter hemisphere. For H2O, an analysis of the tendency equations in SD-WACCM reveal that the stronger winter anomaly may be attributed to both stronger downward transport and stronger photochemical loss. On the other hand, in the default TIME-GCM, the stronger winter anomaly in H2O may only be attributed to stronger downward transport. For both models, the stronger downward transport is attributed to enhanced stratospheric polar winter jet during solar maximum. Future work will determine whether setting the lower boundary conditions of TIME-GCM with MERRA will improve the match between TIME-GCM and SD-WACCM. Also, with the TIME-GCM outputs, the influence of these MLT circulation changes on the ionospheric winter anomaly will be determined.

Soil Moisture Anomaly as Predictor of Crop Yield Deviation in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peichl, Michael; Thober, Stephan; Schwarze, Reimund; Meyer, Volker; Samaniego, Luis

2016-04-01

Natural hazards, such as droughts, have the potential to drastically diminish crop yield in rain-fed agriculture. For example, the drought in 2003 caused direct losses of 1.5 billion EUR only in Germany (COPA-COGECA 2003). Predicting crop yields allows to economize the mitigation of risks of weather extremes. Economic approaches for quantifying agricultural impacts of natural hazards mainly rely on temperature and related concepts. For instance extreme heat over the growing season is considered as best predictor of corn yield (Auffhammer and Schlenker 2014). However, those measures are only able to provide a proxy for the available water content in the root zone that ultimately determines plant growth and eventually crop yield. The aim of this paper is to analyse whether soil moisture has a causal effect on crop yield that can be exploited in improving adaptation measures. For this purpose, reduced form fixed effect panel models are developed with yield as dependent variable for both winter wheat and silo maize crops. The explanatory variables used are soil moisture anomalies, precipitation and temperature. The latter two are included to estimate the current state of the water balance. On the contrary, soil moisture provides an integrated signal over several months. It is also the primary source of water supply for plant growth. For each crop a single model is estimated for every month within the growing period to study the variation of the effects over time. Yield data is available for Germany as a whole on the level of administrative districts from 1990 to 2010. Station data by the German Weather Service are obtained for precipitation and temperature and are aggregated to the same spatial units. Simulated soil moisture computed by the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM, www.ufz.de/mhm) is transformed into Soil Moisture Index (SMI), which represents the monthly soil water quantile and hence accounts directly for the water content available to plants. The results indicate that wet and dry soil moisture anomalies have a causal effect on crop yields. However, the effects vary in magnitude and direction for each crop depending on the month. For instance dry soil moisture anomalies in July, August and September reduce silo maize yield more than ten percent with respect to average conditions. Extreme wetness, however, increases silo maize yield in the same time period. A negative effect is observed for winter wheat during this period for both wet and dry anomalies. The reduction due to dry anomalies is smaller for winter wheat than for silo maize. This study shows that the impact of soil moisture anomalies varies dependent on months and crops. These evolving patterns provide new insights to improve adaptation measures for extreme soil moisture conditions. References Auffhammer, M., and W. Schlenker. 2014. "Empirical studies on agricultural impacts and adaptation." Energy Economics 46:555-561. COPA-COGECA. 2003. "Assessment of the impact of the heat wave and drought of the summer 2003 on agriculture and forestry." In Committee of Agricultural Organisations in the European Union General Committee for Agricultural Cooperation in the European Union, Brussels. p. 15.

European Climate and Pinot Noir Grape-Harvest Dates in Burgundy, since the 17th Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tourre, Y. M.

2011-12-01

Time-series of growing season air temperature anomalies in the Parisian region and of 'Pinot Noir' grape-harvest dates (GHD) in Burgundy (1676-2004) are analyzed in the frequency-domain. Variability of both time-series display three significant frequency-bands (peaks significant at the 5% level) i.e., a low-frequency band (multi-decadal) with a 25-year peak period; a 3-to-8 year band period (inter-annual) with a 3.1-year peak period; and a 2-to-3 year band period (quasi-biennial) with a 2.4-year peak period. Joint sea surface temperature/sea level pressure (SST/SLP) empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analyses during the 20th century, along with spatio-temporal patterns for the above frequency-bands are presented. It is found that SST anomalies display early significant spatial SST patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean (air temperature lagging by 6 months) similar to those obtained from EOF analyses. It is thus proposed that the robust power spectra for the above frequency-bands could be linked with Atlantic climate variability metrics modulating Western European climate i.e., 1) the global Multi-decadal Oscillation (MDO) with its Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) footprint; 2) the Atlantic Inter-Annual (IA) fluctuations; and 3) the Atlantic Quasi-Biennial (QB) fluctuations, respectively. Moreover these specific Western European climate signals have effects on ecosystem health and can be perceived as contributors to the length of the growing season and the timing of GHD in Burgundy. Thus advance knowledge on the evolution and phasing of the above climate fluctuations become important elements for viticulture and wine industry management. It is recognized that anthropogenic effects could have modified time-series patterns presented here, particularly since the mid 1980s.

World Digital Magnetic Anomaly Map, development towards the Second Edition. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korhonen, J. V.

2009-12-01

Magnetic anomalies are small deviations in the Earth’s main magnetic field, caused by variation of magnetization in the uppermost lithosphere. Magnetic anomalies provide spatial key information for understanding the structure and evolution of the Earths crust. In practice these anomalies are used e.g. for assessment and prospecting of geological natural resources and planning of land use. A common way to calculate a magnetic anomaly value has been to subtract International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) from a total field measurement that is cleaned from short term variation of the Earth's magnetic field. World Digital Magnetic Anomaly Map (WDMAM) is a collaborative project between member organizations of International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA) and the Commission for Geological Map of the World (CGMW). The First Edition of the map was published in 2007. It consisted of a paper map 1:50 Million and a 3 minutes global grid of total field anomalies at an altitude of 5 km above the geoid. The First Edition was aimed to compile as much as possible available land and sea magnetic data, and homogenize it by comparing anomalies with a satellite magnetic lithospheric field model. This first version was prepared in a tight schedule, to show the usefulness of the map to the community and to form a basis for later development and future editions of the map. Hence, much was left to be improved for the second edition, including sparse coverage in two continents and all southern seas. The satellite models were understood to gain more detail in near future when the CHAMP-satellite would reach lower orbits, and hence higher resolution. The SWARM-satellite constellation was seen to produce even more suitable data in a few years thereafter. Ocean magnetic data sets required careful processing and leveling. The method of homogenization of anomalies included replacing long wavelength information by satellite model spectral data, and hence rejecting corresponding measurements. A challenge was left to include high quality anomaly levels of near ground measurements in global magnetic anomaly grid, where available. For these purposes WDMAM task force calls for both new and improved old data sets, advanced methods for data processing and compilation, and improved anomaly definition schemes. All these would be put together and submitted as candidate grids in 2010, and finally released as WDMAM 2011 (Second Edition) at IUGG 2011, in Australia. All contributions towards this purpose are solicited.

3D P-Wave Velocity Structure of the Crust and Relocation of Earthquakes in 21 the Lushan Source Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, X.; Wang, X.; Zhang, W.

2014-12-01

The double difference seismic tomography method is applied to the absolute first arrival P wave arrival times and high quality relative P arrival times of the Lushan seismic sequence to determine the detailed crustal 3D P wave velocity structure and the hypocenter parameters in the Lushan seismic area. The results show that the Lushan mainshock locates at 30.28 N, 103.98 E, with the depth of 16.38 km. The leading edge of aftershock in the northeast of mainshock present a spade with a steep dip angle, the aftershocks' extended length is about 12 km. In the southwest of the Lushan mainshock, the leading edge of aftershock in low velocity zone slope gently, the aftershocks' extended length is about 23 km. The P wave velocity structure of the Lushan seismic area shows obviously lateral heterogeneity. The P wave velocity anomalies represent close relationship with topographic relief and geological structure. In Baoxing area the complex rocks correspond obvious high-velocity anomalies extending down to 15 km depth，while the Cenozoic rocks are correlated with low-velocity anomalies. Our high-resolution tomographic model not only displays the general features contained in the previous models, but also reveals some new features. An obvious high-velocity anomaly is visible in Daxing area. The high-velocity anomalies beneath Baoxing and Daxing connect each other in 10 km depth, which makes the contrast between high and low velocity anomalies more sharp. Above 20 km depth the velocity structure in southwest and northeast segment of the mainshock shows a big difference: low-velocity anomalies are dominated the southwest segment, while high-velocity anomalies rule the northeast segment. The Lushan mainshock locates at the leading edge of a low-velocity anomaly surrounded by the Baoxing and Daxing high-velocity anomalies. The Lushan aftershocks in southwest are distributed in low-velocity anomalies or the transition belt: the footwall represents low-velocity anomalies, while the hanging wall shows high-velocity anomalies. The northeastern aftershocks are distributed at the boundary between high-velocity anomalies in Baoxing and Daxing area. The main seismogenic layer dips to northwest.

Under the Sea Ice: Exploration of the Relationships Between Sea Ice Patterns and Foraging Movements of a Marine Predator in East Antarctica.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labrousse, S.; Sallee, J. B.; Fraser, A. D.; Massom, R. A.; Reid, P.; Sumner, M.; Guinet, C.; Harcourt, R.; Bailleul, F.; Hindell, M.; Charrassin, J. B.

2016-02-01

Investigating ecological relationships between top predators and their environment is essential to understand the response of marine ecosystems to climate variability. Specifically, variability and changes in sea ice, which is known as an important habitat for marine ecosystems, presents complex patterns in East Antarctic. The impact for ecosystems of such changes of their habitat is however still unknown. Acting as an ecological double-edged sword, sea ice can impede access to marine resources while harboring a rich ecosystem during winter. Here, we investigated which type of sea ice habitat is used by male and female southern elephant seals during winter and examine if and how the spatio-temporal variability of sea ice concentration (SIC) influence their foraging strategies. We also examined over a 10 years time-series the impact of SIC and sea ice advance anomaly on foraging activity. To do this, we studied 46 individuals equipped with Satellite linked data recorders between 2004 and 2014, undertaking post-moult trips in winter from Kerguelen to the peri-Antarctic shelf. The general patterns of sea ice use by males and females are clearly distinct; while females tended to follow the sea ice edge as it extended northward, males remained on the continental shelf. Female foraging activity was higher in late autumn in the outer part of the pack ice in concentrated SIC and spatially stable. They remained in areas of variable SIC over time and low persistence. The seal hunting time, a proxy of foraging activity inferred from the diving behaviour, was much higher during earlier advance of sea ice over female time-series. The females were possibly taking advantage of the ice algal autumn bloom sustaining krill and an under ice ecosystem without being trapped in sea ice. Males foraging activity increased when they remained deep inside sea ice over the shelf using variable SIC in time and space, presumably in polynyas or flaw leads between fast and pack ice. This strategy probably gave them access to zones of enhanced resources in early spring such as polynyas, the Antarctic Slope Front, or the Antarctic shelf while avoiding the constraint of sea ice. Over years, males foraging activity were not affected by anomalies of sea ice advance, however negative SIC anomalies were profitable allowing them to use remote areas within sea ice.

An Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System for the detection of thermal and TEC anomalies around the time of the Varzeghan, Iran, (Mw = 6.4) earthquake of 11 August 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhoondzadeh, M.

2013-09-01

Anomaly detection is extremely important for forecasting the date, location and magnitude of an impending earthquake. In this paper, an Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) has been proposed to detect the thermal and Total Electron Content (TEC) anomalies around the time of the Varzeghan, Iran, (Mw = 6.4) earthquake jolted in 11 August 2012 NW Iran. ANFIS is the famous hybrid neuro-fuzzy network for modeling the non-linear complex systems. In this study, also the detected thermal and TEC anomalies using the proposed method are compared to the results dealing with the observed anomalies by applying the classical and intelligent methods including Interquartile, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) methods. The duration of the dataset which is comprised from Aqua-MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) night-time snapshot images and also Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM), is 62 days. It can be shown that, if the difference between the predicted value using the ANFIS method and the observed value, exceeds the pre-defined threshold value, then the observed precursor value in the absence of non seismic effective parameters could be regarded as precursory anomaly. For two precursors of LST and TEC, the ANFIS method shows very good agreement with the other implemented classical and intelligent methods and this indicates that ANFIS is capable of detecting earthquake anomalies. The applied methods detected anomalous occurrences 1 and 2 days before the earthquake. This paper indicates that the detection of the thermal and TEC anomalies derive their credibility from the overall efficiencies and potentialities of the five integrated methods.

Discovering System Health Anomalies Using Data Mining Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sriastava, Ashok, N.

2005-01-01

We present a data mining framework for the analysis and discovery of anomalies in high-dimensional time series of sensor measurements that would be found in an Integrated System Health Monitoring system. We specifically treat the problem of discovering anomalous features in the time series that may be indicative of a system anomaly, or in the case of a manned system, an anomaly due to the human. Identification of these anomalies is crucial to building stable, reusable, and cost-efficient systems. The framework consists of an analysis platform and new algorithms that can scale to thousands of sensor streams to discovers temporal anomalies. We discuss the mathematical framework that underlies the system and also describe in detail how this framework is general enough to encompass both discrete and continuous sensor measurements. We also describe a new set of data mining algorithms based on kernel methods and hidden Markov models that allow for the rapid assimilation, analysis, and discovery of system anomalies. We then describe the performance of the system on a real-world problem in the aircraft domain where we analyze the cockpit data from aircraft as well as data from the aircraft propulsion, control, and guidance systems. These data are discrete and continuous sensor measurements and are dealt with seamlessly in order to discover anomalous flights. We conclude with recommendations that describe the tradeoffs in building an integrated scalable platform for robust anomaly detection in ISHM applications.

Albedo climatology for European land surfaces retrieved from AVHRR data (1990-2014) and its spatial and temporal analysis from green-up to vegetation senescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sütterlin, M.; Stöckli, R.; Schaaf, C. B.; Wunderle, S.

2016-07-01

Satellite-based, long-term records of surface albedo characterization that accurately capture spatial and temporal patterns are essential to develop climate models and to monitor the impact of land use changes on the terrestrial energy and water balance. This study presents the first Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) and albedo data set derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Local Area Coverage reflectance data acquired on board National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Meteorological Operational platforms from 1990 to 2014 over Europe. The objectives of this paper are to describe the data set's surface albedo climatology and anomalies in the visible, near-infrared, and shortwave broadbands for the growing season months of May to September in order to facilitate utilization of the data by the climate modeling communities. The results demonstrate that the AVHRR BRDF and albedo data have temporal and spatial patterns that are appropriate for the underlying predominant land cover type and accurately reflect the associated climate variation. Visible and near-infrared broadband albedo anomalies are found to be contrasting in most years, and their spatial distributions depict responses of vegetation to climate events (e.g., heat waves). Visible albedo of crops and near-infrared albedo of pastures show a higher interannual variation than respective albedos of other snow-free land covers, while the interannual standard deviations are found to be lower than 0.015. Our findings indicate the importance of taking into account the spectrally distinct variability of surface albedo when analyzing its complex spatiotemporal dynamics in climate-related research.

Temporal-Spatial Pattern of Pre-earthquake Signatures in Atmosphere and Ionosphere Associated with Major Earthquakes in Greece.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calderon, I. S.; Ouzounov, D.; Anagnostopoulos, G. C.; Pulinets, S. A.; Davidenko, D.; Karastathis, V. K.; Kafatos, M.

2015-12-01

We are conducting validation studies on atmosphere/ionosphere phenomena preceding major earthquakes in Greece in the last decade and in particular the largest (M6.9) earthquakes that occurred on May 24, 2014 in the Aegean Sea and on February 14, 2008 in South West Peloponisos (Methoni). Our approach is based on monitoring simultaneously a series of different physical parameters from space: Outgoing long-wavelength radiation (OLR) on the top of the atmosphere, electron and electron density variations in the ionosphere via GPS Total Electron Content (GPS/TEC), and ULF radiation and radiation belt electron precipitation (RBEP) accompanied by VLF wave activity into the topside ionosphere. In particular, we analyzed prospectively and retrospectively the temporal and spatial variations of various parameters characterizing the state of the atmosphere and ionosphere several days before the two M6.9 earthquakes. Concerning the Methoni EQ, DEMETER data confirm an almost standard profile before large EQs, with TEC, ULF, VLF and RBEP activity preceding some (four) days the EQ occurrence and silence the day of EQ; furthermore, during the period before the EQ, a progressive concentration of ULF emission centers around the future epicenter was confirmed. Concerning the recent Greek EQ of May 24, 2014, thermal anomaly was discovered 30 days and TEC anomaly 38 hours in advance accordingly. The spatial characteristics of pre-earthquake anomalous behavior were associated with the epicentral region. Our analysis of simultaneous space measurements before the great EQs suggests that they follow a general temporal-spatial pattern, which has been seen in other large EQs worldwide.

Study of 3D P-wave Velocity Structure in Lushan Area of Yunnan Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.

2017-12-01

The double difference seismic tomography method is applied to 50,711 absolute first arrival P wave arrival times and 7,294,691 high quality relative P arrival times of 5,285 events of Lushan seismic sequence to simultaneously determine the detailed crustal 3D P wave velocity structure and the hypocenter parameters in the Lushan seismic area. The results show that the front edge of aftershock in the northeast of mainshock present a spade with a steep dip angle. In the southwest of Lushan mainshock, the front edge of aftershock in low velocity zone slope gently. Our high-resolution tomographic model not only displays the general features contained in the previous models, but also reveals some new features. The Tianquan, Shuangshi and Daguan line lies in the transition zone between high velocity anomalies to the southeast and low velocity anomalies to the northwest at the ground surface. An obvious high-velocity anomaly is visible in Daxing area. With the depth increasing, Baoxing high velocity anomaly extends to Lingguan, while the southeast of the Tianquan, Shuangshi and Daguan line still shows low velocity. The high-velocity anomalies beneath Baoxing and Daxing connect each other in 10km depth, which makes the contrast between high and low velocity anomalies more sharp. Above all, the P wave velocity structure of Lushan seismic area shows obviously lateral heterogeneity. The P wave velocity anomalies represent close relationship with topographic relief and geological structure. In Baoxing area the complex rocks correspond obvious high-velocity anomalies extending down to 15km depth, while the Cenozoic rocks are correlated with low-velocity anomalies. Lushan mainshock locates at the leading edge of a low-velocity anomaly surrounded by the Baoxing and Daxing high-velocity anomalies. The main seismogenic layer dips to northwest. Meanwhile, a recoil seismic belt dips to southeast above the main seismogenic layer exists at the lower boundary of Baoxing high-velocity anomaly. A "y" distribution pattern is shown between two seismic belts.

Mapping Shear-wave Velocity Structures of the "African Anomaly" Along a Northwest to Southeast Arc From New Zealand to the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frodsham, A. E.; Wen, L.

2006-12-01

A previous study [Wang and Wen, 2006] investigated the geometry and shear velocity structure of the "African Anomaly" along a great circle arc from the East Pacific Rise to the Japan Sea, and concluded the anomaly extends 1300 km above the core-mantle boundary, that the sides of the anomaly slope towards the apex and has velocity deviations of -5% in the base and -2% to -3% in the mid-lower mantle. Wang and Wen [2004] also reported on the very low velocity province that forms the base of the "African Anomaly" and its lateral extent, but the northern edge of the anomaly was poorly constrained because of the nature of the seismic data. In this presentation we focus on the nature of the anomaly in a cross-section of the mantle along a great arc, from New Zealand, to the Mid-Atlantic Ridge off the coast of Newfoundland, centered over the anomaly. In particular, we focus on the northern edge of the "African Anomaly" where a paucity of large, deep focus earthquakes makes seismic arrivals from the northwest difficult to analyze. We map the lateral extent, thickness, and shear velocity structures of the "African Anomaly" on the basis of forward travel time and waveform modeling of direct S, ScS, and SKS waves. Seismic data used in this study were collected from PASSCAL arrays: KAAPVAAL seismic array (operating years 1997-1999), Tanzania seismic array (1994- 1995), Ethiopia/Kenya seismic array (2000-2002), and the Global Seismographic Network (1994-2002). We minimize uncertainty from earthquake mislocation by relocation of the earthquakes using a global tomographic shear wave velocity model and also correct for heterogeneities outside the anomaly. We explore various methods of data processing, such as frequency filtration, low fold stacking, and cross correlation, to best interpret the arrival times of the various seismic phases and constrain the nature of the "African Anomaly" along a northwest to southeast cross-section.

Assimilating soil moisture into an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

2017-04-01

Several modelling studies reported potential impacts of soil moisture anomalies on regional climate. In particular for short prediction periods, perturbations of the soil moisture state may result in significant alteration of surface temperature in the following season. However, it is not clear yet whether or not soil moisture anomalies affect climate also on larger temporal and spatial scales. In an earlier study, we showed that soil moisture anomalies can persist for several seasons in the deeper soil layers of a land surface model. Additionally, those anomalies can influence root zone moisture, in particular during explicitly dry or wet periods. Thus, one prerequisite for predictability, namely the existence of long term memory, is evident for simulated soil moisture and might be exploited to improve climate predictions. The second prerequisite is the sensitivity of the climate system to soil moisture. In order to investigate this sensitivity for decadal simulations, we implemented a soil moisture assimilation scheme into the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The assimilation scheme is based on a simple nudging algorithm and updates the surface soil moisture state once per day. In our experiments, the MPI-ESM is used which includes model components for the interactive simulation of atmosphere, land and ocean. Artificial assimilation data is created from a control simulation to nudge the MPI-ESM towards predominantly dry and wet states. First analyses are focused on the impact of the assimilation on land surface variables and reveal distinct differences in the long-term mean values between wet and dry state simulations. Precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff are larger in the wet state compared to the dry state, resulting in an increased moisture transport from the land to atmosphere and ocean. Consequently, surface temperatures are lower in the wet state simulations by more than one Kelvin. In terms of spatial pattern, the largest differences between both simulations are seen for continental areas, while regions with a maritime climate are least sensitive to soil moisture assimilation.

Severe 2010 Cold-Water Event Caused Unprecedented Mortality to Corals of the Florida Reef Tract and Reversed Previous Survivorship Patterns

PubMed Central

Lirman, Diego; Schopmeyer, Stephanie; Manzello, Derek; Gramer, Lewis J.; Precht, William F.; Muller-Karger, Frank; Banks, Kenneth; Barnes, Brian; Bartels, Erich; Bourque, Amanda; Byrne, James; Donahue, Scott; Duquesnel, Janice; Fisher, Louis; Gilliam, David; Hendee, James; Johnson, Meaghan; Maxwell, Kerry; McDevitt, Erin; Monty, Jamie; Rueda, Digna; Ruzicka, Rob; Thanner, Sara

2011-01-01

Background Coral reefs are facing increasing pressure from natural and anthropogenic stressors that have already caused significant worldwide declines. In January 2010, coral reefs of Florida, United States, were impacted by an extreme cold-water anomaly that exposed corals to temperatures well below their reported thresholds (16°C), causing rapid coral mortality unprecedented in spatial extent and severity. Methodology/Principal Findings Reef surveys were conducted from Martin County to the Lower Florida Keys within weeks of the anomaly. The impacts recorded were catastrophic and exceeded those of any previous disturbances in the region. Coral mortality patterns were directly correlated to in-situ and satellite-derived cold-temperature metrics. These impacts rival, in spatial extent and intensity, the impacts of the well-publicized warm-water bleaching events around the globe. The mean percent coral mortality recorded for all species and subregions was 11.5% in the 2010 winter, compared to 0.5% recorded in the previous five summers, including years like 2005 where warm-water bleaching was prevalent. Highest mean mortality (15%–39%) was documented for inshore habitats where temperatures were <11°C for prolonged periods. Increases in mortality from previous years were significant for 21 of 25 coral species, and were 1–2 orders of magnitude higher for most species. Conclusions/Significance The cold-water anomaly of January 2010 caused the worst coral mortality on record for the Florida Reef Tract, highlighting the potential catastrophic impacts that unusual but extreme climatic events can have on the persistence of coral reefs. Moreover, habitats and species most severely affected were those found in high-coral cover, inshore, shallow reef habitats previously considered the “oases” of the region, having escaped declining patterns observed for more offshore habitats. Thus, the 2010 cold-water anomaly not only caused widespread coral mortality but also reversed prior resistance and resilience patterns that will take decades to recover. PMID:21853066

Magnetic map of the Irish Hills and surrounding areas, San Luis Obispo County, central California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langenheim, V.E.; Watt, J.T.; Denton, K.M.

2012-01-01

A magnetic map of the Irish Hills and surrounding areas was created as part of a cooperative research and development agreement with the Pacific Gas and Electric Company and is intended to promote further understanding of the areal geology and structure by serving as a basis for geophysical interpretations and by supporting geological mapping, mineral and water resource investigations, and other topical studies. Local spatial variations in the Earth's magnetic field (evident as anomalies on magnetic maps) reflect the distribution of magnetic minerals, primarily magnetite, in the underlying rocks. In many cases the volume content of magnetic minerals can be related to rock type, and abrupt spatial changes in the amount of magnetic minerals can be related to either lithologic or structural boundaries. Magnetic susceptibility measurements from the area indicate that bodies of serpentinite and other mafic and ultramafic rocks tend to produce the most intense magnetic anomalies, but such generalizations must be applied with caution because some sedimentary units also can produce measurable magnetic anomalies. Remanent magnetization does not appear to be a significant source for magnetic anomalies because it is an order of magnitude less than the induced magnetization. The map is a mosaic of three separate surveys collected by (1) fixed-wing aircraft at a nominal height of 305 m, (2) by boat with the sensor at sea level, and (3) by helicopter. The helicopter survey was flown by New-Sense Geophysics in October 2009 along flight lines spaced 150-m apart and at a nominal terrain clearance of 50 to 100 m. Tie lines were flown 1,500-m apart. Data were adjusted for lag error and diurnal field variations. Further processing included microleveling using the tie lines and subtraction of the reference field defined by International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) 2005 extrapolated to August 1, 2008.

Visualization and Quality Control Web Tools for CERES Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitrescu, C.; Doelling, D.; Chu, C.; Mlynczak, P.

2014-12-01

The CERES project continues to provide the scientific community a wide variety of satellite-derived data products. The flagship products TOA broadband shortwave and longwave observed fluxes, computed TOA and Surface fluxes, as well as cloud, aerosol, and other atmospheric parameters. These datasets encompass a wide range of temporal and spatial resolutions, suited to specific applications. We thus offer time resolutions that range from instantaneous to monthly means, with spatial resolutions that range from 20-km footprint to global scales. The 14-year record is mostly used by climate modeling communities that focus on global mean energetics, meridianal heat transport, and climate trend studies. CERES products are also used by the remote sensing community for their climatological studies. In the last years however, our CERES products had been used by an even broader audience, like the green energy, health and environmental research communities, and others. Because of that, the CERES project has implemented a now well-established web-oriented Ordering and Visualization Tool (OVT), which is well into its fifth year of development. In order to help facilitate a comprehensive quality control of CERES products, the OVT Team began introducing a series of specialized functions. These include the 1- and 2-D histogram, anomaly, deseasonalization, temporal and spatial averaging, side-by-side parameter comparison, and other specialized scientific application capabilities. Over time increasingly higher order temporal and spatial resolution products are being made available to the public through the CERES OVT. These high-resolution products require accessing the existing long-term archive - thus the reading of many very large netCDF or HDF files that pose a real challenge to the task of near instantaneous visualization. An overview of the CERES OVT basic functions and QC capabilities as well as future steps in expanding its capabilities will be presented at the meeting.

High-resolution spatio-temporal analyses of drought episodes in the western Mediterranean basin (Spanish mainland, Iberian Peninsula)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Hidalgo, J. C.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Peña-Angulo, D.; Salinas, C.; Tomas-Burguera, M.; Beguería, S.

2018-04-01

The purpose of this research was to identify major drought events on the Spanish mainland between 1961 and 2014 by means of two drought indices, and analyze the spatial propagation of drought conditions. The indices applied were the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized evaporation precipitation index (SPEI). The first was calculated as standardized anomalies of precipitation at various temporal intervals, while the second examined the climatic balance normalized at monthly scale, incorporating the relationship between precipitation and the atmospheric water demand. The daily meteorological data from Spanish Meteorological Archives (AEMet) were used in performing the analyses. Within the framework of the DESEMON project, original data were converted into a high spatial resolution grid (1.1 km2) following exhaustive quality control. Values of both indices were calculated on a weekly scale and different timescales (12, 24 and 36 months). The results show that during the first half of the study period, the SPI usually returned a higher identification of drought areas, while the reverse was true from the 1990s, suggesting that the effect from atmospheric evaporative demand could have increased. The temporal propagation from 12- to 24-month and 36-month timescales analyzed in the paper seems to be a far from straightforward phenomenon that does not follow a simple rule of time lag, because events at different temporal scales can overlap in time and space. Spatially, the propagation of drought events affecting more than 25% of the total land indicates the existence of various spatial gradients of drought propagation, mostly east-west or west-east, but also north-south have been found. No generalized episodes were found with a radial pattern, i.e., from inland to the coast.

New Joint Geochemical-Geophysical Record of Time-Dependent Mantle Convection South of Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, S. M.; Murton, B. J.; Fitton, J. G.; White, N. J.; Scientific Team Of Rv Celtic Explorer Cruise Ce0806

2010-12-01

Upper mantle convection is expected to be time-dependent because the mantle Rayleigh number is super-critical by at least 3 orders of magnitude. The North Atlantic V-Shaped Ridges (VSRs) provide a long, spatially extensive and clear record of unsteady mantle convection over time periods of 0.1 to 10 million years. VSRs are diachronous ridges of thick crust formed at the Mid Atlantic Ridge to the north and south of Iceland. Ever since their discovery, it has been generally agreed that this diachronous geometry results from melting anomalies that propagate outward from Iceland within the asthenosphere. The solid earth cycles that generate the VSRs also appear to modulate Atlantic oceanic circulation, since the VSR record correlates well with the % Northern Component Water proxy. Knowledge of geochemical variability associated with the VSRs is lacking in comparison with available geophysical and oceanographic records. Here we report dredged basalt samples obtained during RV Celtic Explorer cruise CE0806 (April-May 2008). Together with an earlier dredged dataset, we now have a record of basalt geochemistry covering intersections of 2 V-Shaped Ridge/Trough pairs with the Mid Atlantic Ridge, as well as a transect along a VSR crest. (1) Along the Mid Atlantic Ridge, spatial variations in trace element concentrations and ratios correlate very well with VSR records from bathymetry and gravity. Minima in incompatible trace element concentrations and in ratios such as La/Sm and Zr/Y correlate with maxima in crustal thickness. There is no associated systematic variation in Nd or Sr isotopes. Observations suggest that VSR melting anomalies are caused by variations in temperature rather than composition of the mantle source. (2) VSR melting anomalies propagate out to at least 1400 km from Iceland, well into the region where fracture zones obscure the topographic and gravitational expressions of the VSRs. A value of >1400 km for the radius of plume head measured at the mid-ocean ridge is >600 km more than the value commonly used in estimating plume volume flux. Both the larger plume head diameter and high propagation speeds implied by VSR planform geometry suggest that some well-known estimates of Icelandic plume flux are too small by up to an order of magnitude. (3) Both geochemical and crustal thickness measurements of VSRs can be matched using a time-dependent mid-ocean ridge melting model atop a simple kinematic model of hotter/cooler pulses travelling radially outward from Iceland within the asthenosphere. (4) A thermal origin for the VSRs strengthens the hypothesis of a direct link between plume pulsing and the fluctuating strength of meridional overturning oceanic circulation. Hotter mantle has a lower density, so locations of higher melt production correspond with locations of increased dynamic support at the mid-ocean ridge. When the same hotter pulses travel beneath the Greenland-Scotland Ridge they cause temporary uplift that affects flow of water between the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas.

Crustal deformation along the San Andreas, California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Victor C.

1992-01-01

The goal is to achieve a better understanding of the regional and local deformation and crustal straining processes in western North America, particularly the effects of the San Andreas and nearby faults on the spatial and temporal crustal deformation behavior. Construction of theoretical models based on the mechanics of coupled elastic plate, viscoelastic foundation and large scale crack mechanics provide a rational basis for the interpretation of seismic and aseismic anomalies and expedite efforts in forecasting the stability of plate boundary deformation. Special focus is placed on the three dimensional time dependent surface deformation due to localized slippage in a elastic layer coupled to a visco-elastic substrate. The numerical analysis is based on a 3-D boundary element technique. Extension to visco-elastic coupling demands the derivation of 3-D time dependent Green's function. This method was applied to analyze the viscoelastic surface displacements due to a dislocated embedded patch. Surface uplift as a function of time and position are obtained. Comparisons between surface uplift for long and short dislocated patches are made.

Stress field models from Maxwell stress functions: southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bird, Peter

2017-08-01

The lithospheric stress field is formally divided into three components: a standard pressure which is a function of elevation (only), a topographic stress anomaly (3-D tensor field) and a tectonic stress anomaly (3-D tensor field). The boundary between topographic and tectonic stress anomalies is somewhat arbitrary, and here is based on the modeling tools available. The topographic stress anomaly is computed by numerical convolution of density anomalies with three tensor Green's functions provided by Boussinesq, Cerruti and Mindlin. By assuming either a seismically estimated or isostatic Moho depth, and by using Poisson ratio of either 0.25 or 0.5, I obtain four alternative topographic stress models. The tectonic stress field, which satisfies the homogeneous quasi-static momentum equation, is obtained from particular second derivatives of Maxwell vector potential fields which are weighted sums of basis functions representing constant tectonic stress components, linearly varying tectonic stress components and tectonic stress components that vary harmonically in one, two and three dimensions. Boundary conditions include zero traction due to tectonic stress anomaly at sea level, and zero traction due to the total stress anomaly on model boundaries at depths within the asthenosphere. The total stress anomaly is fit by least squares to both World Stress Map data and to a previous faulted-lithosphere, realistic-rheology dynamic model of the region computed with finite-element program Shells. No conflict is seen between the two target data sets, and the best-fitting model (using an isostatic Moho and Poisson ratio 0.5) gives minimum directional misfits relative to both targets. Constraints of computer memory, execution time and ill-conditioning of the linear system (which requires damping) limit harmonically varying tectonic stress to no more than six cycles along each axis of the model. The primary limitation on close fitting is that the Shells model predicts very sharp shallow stress maxima and discontinuous horizontal compression at the Moho, which the new model can only approximate. The new model also lacks the spatial resolution to portray the localized stress states that may occur near the central surfaces of weak faults; instead, the model portrays the regional or background stress field which provides boundary conditions for weak faults. Peak shear stresses in one registered model and one alternate model are 120 and 150 MPa, respectively, while peak vertically integrated shear stresses are 2.9 × 1012 and 4.1 × 1012 N m-1. Channeling of deviatoric stress along the strong Great Valley and the western slope of the Peninsular Ranges is evident. In the neotectonics of southern California, it appears that deviatoric stress and long-term strain rate have a negative correlation, because regions of low heat flow are strong and act as stress guides, while undergoing very little internal deformation. In contrast, active faults lie preferentially in areas with higher heat flow, and their low strength keeps deviatoric stresses locally modest.

Exploring the Linkage of Sea Surface Temperature Variability on Three Spatial Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, L.; Capone, D. G.; Hutchins, D.; Kiefer, D.

2011-12-01

As part of a project examining climate change in the Southern California Bight at the University of Southern California, we studied the linkage of the variability of sea surface temperature across three nested spatial scales, the north Pacific Basin, the West Coast of North American, and the Southern California Bight. Specifically, we analyzed daily GHRSST images between September 1981 and July 2009. In order to remove seasonal changes in temperature and focus upon differences between years, we calculate weekly mean temperature for each pixel from the time series, and then subjected the anomalies for the 3 spatial scales to empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The corresponding temporal expansion coefficients and spatial components (eigenvector) for each EOF mode were then generated to examine the temporal and spatial patterns of SST change. The results showed that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a clear influence on the SST variability across all the three spatial scales, especially the 1st EOF mode which represents the largest variance. The comparison between the time coefficients of the 1st EOF mode and the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) suggested that the EOF mode 1 of the Pacific Basin region matched well with almost all the El Nino and La Nina signals while the West Coast of North American captured only the strong signals and the Southern California Bight captures still fewer of the signals. This clearly indicated that the Southern California Bight is relatively insensitive to ENSO signal relative to other locations along the West Coast. The 1st EOF Mode for the West Coast of North American was also clearly influenced by upwelling. The cross correlation coefficient between each pair of the EOF mode 1 temporal expansion coefficients for the three spatial scales suggested that they were significantly correlated to each other. The effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the SST change was also demonstrated by the temporal variability of the temporal expansion coefficients of the 2nd EOF mode. However, the correlations of 2nd EOF mode time coefficients between the three scales appeared relatively low compared the 1st EOF mode. In summary sea surface temperature in the Southern California Bight behaves like a node that is relatively insensitive to ENSO, PDO, and upwelling signals.

Prevalence of Congenital Anomalies in Infants with in Utero Exposure to Antiretrovirals

PubMed Central

KNAPP, KATHERINE M.; BROGLY, SUSAN B.; MUENZ, DANIEL G.; SPIEGEL, HANS M.; CONWAY, DANIEL H.; SCOTT, GWENDOLYN B.; TALBOT, JEFFREY T.; SHAPIRO, DAVID E.; READ, JENNIFER S.

2011-01-01

Background While use of efficacious interventions, including antiretrovirals (ARVs), has reduced dramatically the rate of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV, the safety of in utero ARV exposure remains of concern. Methods Data regarding 1112 infants enrolled in the International Maternal Pediatric Adolescent AIDS Clinical Trials Group (IMPAACT) protocol P1025 born between 2002 and 2007 were analyzed for this study. Congenital anomalies were classified based on the Metropolitan Atlanta Congenital Defects Program (MACDP) guidelines. Associations between congenital anomalies and timing of first in utero exposure to ARVs were evaluated by logistic regression analysis. Results 61 of the 1112 infants had congenital anomalies identified and confirmed, resulting in a prevalence of 5.49/100 live births (95%CI: 4.22–6.99). Among the 80 anomalies identified, the organ systems involved included: cardiovascular (n=33), musculoskeletal (n=15), renal (n=9), genitourinary (n=6), craniofacial (n=4), and central nervous system (n=2). First trimester exposure to efavirenz was associated with a significantly increased risk of congenital anomalies (OR 2.84, 95%CI: 1.13–7.16). No significant associations were observed between exposure to other individual ARVs or classes of ARVs started at any time during pregnancy and infant congenital anomalies. Conclusions The observed rate of congenital anomalies in this cohort is higher than previously reported for the general population, but is consistent with rates observed in other recent studies of children born to HIV-infected women. Cardiovascular anomalies occurred most frequently. With the exception of a known teratogen (efavirenz), no statistically significant associations between in utero exposure to ARVs and congenital anomalies were identified. PMID:21983213

The Cottage Lake Lineament, Washington: Onshore Extension of the Southern Whidbey Island Fault?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blakely, R. J.; Weaver, C. S.; Sherrod, B. L.; Troost, K. G.; Haugerud, R. A.; Wells, R. E.; McCormack, D. H.

2003-12-01

The northwest-striking southern Whidbey Island fault zone (SWIF) is reasonably well expressed by borehole data, marine seismic surveys, and potential-field anomalies on Whidbey Island and beneath surrounding waterways. Johnson et al. (1996) described evidence for Quaternary movement on the SWIF, suggested the fault zone is capable of a M 7 earthquake, and projected three fault strands onto the mainland between the cities of Seattle and Everett. Evidence for this onshore projection is scant, however, and the exact location of the SWIF in this populated region is unknown. Four linear, northwest-striking magnetic anomalies on the mainland may help address this issue. All of the anomalies are low in amplitude and best illuminated in residual magnetic fields. The most prominent of the magnetic anomalies extends at least 15 km, is on strike with the SWIF on Whidbey Island, and passes near Cottage Lake, about 15 km south of downtown Everett. The magnetic anomaly is associated with linear topography along its entire length, but spectral analysis indicates that the source of the anomaly lies principally beneath the topographic surface and extends to depths greater than 2 km. The anomalies are likely created by northwest-trending, faulted and folded Tertiary volcanic and sedimentary rocks of the Cascade foothills, which rise from beneath the Quaternary lowland fill to the southeast of the SWIF. High-resolution Lidar topography provided by King County shows subtle scarps cutting the latest Pleistocene glaciated surface at two locations along the magnetic anomaly; scarps are parallel to the anomaly trend. In the field, one scarp has 2 to 3 m of north-side-up offset; paleoseismic trench excavations are planned for Fall 2003 to determine their nature and history. Preliminary examination of boreholes, recently acquired as part of an ongoing sewer tunnel project, show anomalous stratigraphic and structural disturbances in the area of the magnetic anomalies. Analyses are underway to determine if faulting causes these disturbances. Taken together, the SWIF and the Cottage Lake lineament extend >50 km. Thus defined, the SWIF is spatially associated along its length with an arcuate (convex to the southwest) zone of deep (>10 km) crustal earthquakes, one of several arcuate alignments of epicenters between the SWIF and Olympia, Washington.

Temporal-Spatial Patterns of Natural Disaster and Societal Impact in Historical China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, S.

2017-12-01

Studies pertinent to the relationship between climate change and human society in historical China from both temporal and spatial perspectives are extremely rare at present. In this research, panel data on natural disasters (flood and drought) and their societal impacts (famine, cannibalism, war and the variation of population density) at provincial and decadal scales during 1-1910 AD were applied to mathematical statistics such as correlation, regression and Granger causality analysis as well as raster overlay and spatial visualization. Results show that generally there is high consistency among different variables and most of them cluster in eastern part of China, especially in the north. More in-depth examinations indicate that drought is the primary contributor to famine and cannibalism compared with flood, whatever in time and space domain; whilst severe even out-of-control famine (i.e. cannibalism) is more likely to incur war than ordinary famine per se. Also, the pivotal role of population in the nexus of meteorological catastrophes and human miseries is affirmed that population is not only affected by natural calamities and social disorder but also exerts its effect on war. Our findings may lay the foundation for further insightful probes in scientific community and provide some implications for contemporary policymakers with respect to climatic anomalies-induced social crises in the future.

Analysis of GEO spacecraft anomalies: Space weather relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Ho-Sung; Lee, Jaejin; Cho, Kyung-Suk; Kwak, Young-Sil; Cho, Il-Hyun; Park, Young-Deuk; Kim, Yeon-Han; Baker, Daniel N.; Reeves, Geoffrey D.; Lee, Dong-Kyu

2011-06-01

While numerous anomalies and failures of spacecraft have been reported since the beginning of the space age, space weather effects on modern spacecraft systems have been emphasized more and more with the increase of their complexity and capability. However, the relationship between space weather and commercial satellite anomalies has not been studied extensively. In this paper, we investigate the geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) satellite anomalies archived by Satellite News Digest during 1997-2009 in order to search for possible influences of space weather on the anomaly occurrences. We analyze spacecraft anomalies for the Kp index, local time, and season and then compare them with the tendencies of charged particles observed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) satellites. We obtain the following results: (1) there are good relationships between geomagnetic activity (as measured by the Kp index) and anomaly occurrences of the GEO satellites; (2) the satellite anomalies occurred mainly in the midnight to morning sector; and (3) the anomalies are found more frequently in spring and fall than summer and winter. While we cannot fully explain how space weather is involved in producing such anomalies, our analysis of LANL data shows that low-energy (<100 keV) electrons have similar behaviors with spacecraft anomalies and implies the spacecraft charging might dominantly contribute to the GEO spacecraft anomalies reported in Satellite News Digest.

The possible physical mechanism for the EAP-SR co-action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Zhiqiang; Feng, Guolin; Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Huang, Gang

2017-11-01

The anomalous characteristics of summer precipitation and atmospheric circulation in the East Asia-West Pacific Region (EA-WP) associated with the co-action of East Asia/Pacific teleconnection-Silk Road teleconnection (EAP-SR) are investigated in this study. The compositions of EAP-SR phase anomalies can be expressed as pattern I (+ +), pattern II (+ -), pattern III (- -), and pattern IV (- +) using EAP and SR indices. It is found that the spatial distribution of summer precipitation anomalies in EA-WP corresponding to pattern I (III) shows a tripole structure in the meridional direction and a zonal dipole structure in the subtropical region, while pattern II (IV) presents a tripole pattern in meridional direction with compressed and continuous anomalies in the zonal direction over the subtropical region. The similar meridional and zonal structures are also found in the geopotential height anomalies at 500-hPa, as well as wind anomalies and moisture convergence at 850-hPa. Finally, a schematic mechanism for the EAP-SR co-action upon the summer precipitation in EA-WP is built: (1) Pattern I (III) exhibits that the negative (positive) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over tropical East Pacific may cause the enhanced (weakened) convective activity dominating the West Pacific, trigger the positive (negative) EAP teleconnection and produce more (less) precipitation. Besides, the negative (positive) SST anomalies over the Indonesia Maritime Continent (IMC) may further weaken (strengthen) anomalous downward (upward) motion over the South China Sea (SCS), cause negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies at the middle troposphere and surrounding regions through the function of the tropical Hadley circulation. Then the negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies could motivate the positive (negative) EAP teleconnection through the northward propagation of wave-activity perturbation. Meanwhile, a positive (negative) geopotential height anomalous pattern over Eastern Europe motivates a Rossby wave train propagation from Western Europe to west-central Asia. This circumstance can cause suppressed (enhanced) convection and less (more) precipitation over northwestern India and Pakistan, which could strengthen the negative (positive) geopotential height and positive (negative) vorticity anomalies over central East Asia, resulting in a negative (positive) SR teleconnection along the Asian jet stream. A positive (negative) lobe over the Korean Peninsula and Japan corresponding to SR overlaps with a positive (negative) lobe of EAP, which strengthens the anomalous phase contrast on both sides of 120°E. Accordingly, summer precipitation anomalies in EA-WP exhibit the meridional tripole pattern and the zonal dipole pattern. (2) Pattern II (IV) indicates that the normal SST anomalies over the tropical East Pacific cause the weak tele-impact on the tropical West Pacific, while the positive (negative) SST anomalies over the IMC will lead to a negative (positive) lobe of EAP over the subtropical region. This circumstance can weaken the positive (negative) lobe of SR over subtropical region, causing compressed and continuous negative (positive) anomalies of 500-hPa geopotential height and positive (negative) surface precipitation anomalies from central East China to Japan.

waterData--An R package for retrieval, analysis, and anomaly calculation of daily hydrologic time series data, version 1.0

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2012-01-01

Hydrologic time series data and associated anomalies (multiple components of the original time series representing variability at longer-term and shorter-term time scales) are useful for modeling trends in hydrologic variables, such as streamflow, and for modeling water-quality constituents. An R package, called waterData, has been developed for importing daily hydrologic time series data from U.S. Geological Survey streamgages into the R programming environment. In addition to streamflow, data retrieval may include gage height and continuous physical property data, such as specific conductance, pH, water temperature, turbidity, and dissolved oxygen. The package allows for importing daily hydrologic data into R, plotting the data, fixing common data problems, summarizing the data, and the calculation and graphical presentation of anomalies.

Genetic algorithm for TEC seismo-ionospheric anomalies detection around the time of the Solomon (Mw = 8.0) earthquake of 06 February 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhoondzadeh, M.

2013-08-01

On 6 February 2013, at 12:12:27 local time (01:12:27 UTC) a seismic event registering Mw 8.0 struck the Solomon Islands, located at the boundaries of the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates. Time series prediction is an important and widely interesting topic in the research of earthquake precursors. This paper describes a new computational intelligence approach to detect the unusual variations of the total electron content (TEC) seismo-ionospheric anomalies induced by the powerful Solomon earthquake using genetic algorithm (GA). The GA detected a considerable number of anomalous occurrences on earthquake day and also 7 and 8 days prior to the earthquake in a period of high geomagnetic activities. In this study, also the detected TEC anomalies using the proposed method are compared to the results dealing with the observed TEC anomalies by applying the mean, median, wavelet, Kalman filter, ARIMA, neural network and support vector machine methods. The accordance in the final results of all eight methods is a convincing indication for the efficiency of the GA method. It indicates that GA can be an appropriate non-parametric tool for anomaly detection in a non linear time series showing the seismo-ionospheric precursors variations.

Behavioral economics without anomalies.

PubMed Central

Rachlin, H

1995-01-01

Behavioral economics is often conceived as the study of anomalies superimposed on a rational system. As research has progressed, anomalies have multiplied until little is left of rationality. Another conception of behavioral economics is based on the axiom that value is always maximized. It incorporates so-called anomalies either as conflicts between temporal patterns of behavior and the individual acts comprising those patterns or as outcomes of nonexponential time discounting. This second conception of behavioral economics is both empirically based and internally consistent. PMID:8551195

Lithospheric structure of Taiwan from gravity modelling and sequential inversion of seismological and gravity data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masson, F.; Mouyen, M.; Hwang, C.; Wu, Y.-M.; Ponton, F.; Lehujeur, M.; Dorbath, C.

2012-11-01

Using a Bouguer anomaly map and a dense seismic data set, we have performed two studies in order to improve our knowledge of the deep structure of Taiwan. First, we model the Bouguer anomaly along a profile crossing the island using simple forward modelling. The modelling is 2D, with the hypothesis of cylindrical symmetry. Second we present a joint analysis of gravity anomaly and seismic arrival time data recorded in Taiwan. An initial velocity model has been obtained by local earthquake tomography (LET) of the seismological data. The LET velocity model was used to construct an initial 3D gravity model, using a linear velocity-density relationship (Birch's law). The synthetic Bouguer anomaly calculated for this model has the same shape and wavelength as the observed anomaly. However some characteristics of the anomaly map are not retrieved. To derive a crustal velocity/density model which accounts for both types of observations, we performed a sequential inversion of seismological and gravity data. The variance reduction of the arrival time data for the final sequential model was comparable to the variance reduction obtained by simple LET. Moreover, the sequential model explained about 80% of the observed gravity anomaly. New 3D model of Taiwan lithosphere is presented.

Data mining of atmospheric parameters associated with coastal earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cervone, Guido

Earthquakes are natural hazards that pose a serious threat to society and the environment. A single earthquake can claim thousands of lives, cause damages for billions of dollars, destroy natural landmarks and render large territories uninhabitable. Studying earthquakes and the processes that govern their occurrence, is of fundamental importance to protect lives, properties and the environment. Recent studies have shown that anomalous changes in land, ocean and atmospheric parameters occur prior to earthquakes. The present dissertation introduces an innovative methodology and its implementation to identify anomalous changes in atmospheric parameters associated with large coastal earthquakes. Possible geophysical mechanisms are discussed in view of the close interaction between the lithosphere, the hydrosphere and the atmosphere. The proposed methodology is a multi strategy data mining approach which combines wavelet transformations, evolutionary algorithms, and statistical analysis of atmospheric data to analyze possible precursory signals. One dimensional wavelet transformations and statistical tests are employed to identify significant singularities in the data, which may correspond to anomalous peaks due to the earthquake preparatory processes. Evolutionary algorithms and other localized search strategies are used to analyze the spatial and temporal continuity of the anomalies detected over a large area (about 2000 km2), to discriminate signals that are most likely associated with earthquakes from those due to other, mostly atmospheric, phenomena. Only statistically significant singularities occurring within a very short time of each other, and which tract a rigorous geometrical path related to the geological properties of the epicentral area, are considered to be associated with a seismic event. A program called CQuake was developed to implement and validate the proposed methodology. CQuake is a fully automated, real time semi-operational system, developed to study precursory signals associated with earthquakes. CQuake can be used for the retrospective analysis of past earthquakes, and for detecting early warning information about impending events. Using CQuake more than 300 earthquakes have been analyzed. In the case of coastal earthquakes with magnitude larger than 5.0, prominent anomalies are found up to two weeks prior to the main event. In case of earthquakes occurring away from the coast, no strong anomaly is detected. The identified anomalies provide a potentially reliable mean to mitigate earthquake risks in the future, and can be used to develop a fully operational forecasting system.