China's Air Quality and Respiratory Disease Mortality Based on the Spatial Panel Model.

PubMed

Cao, Qilong; Liang, Ying; Niu, Xueting

2017-09-18

Background : Air pollution has become an important factor restricting China's economic development and has subsequently brought a series of social problems, including the impact of air pollution on the health of residents, which is a topical issue in China. Methods : Taking into account this spatial imbalance, the paper is based on the spatial panel data model PM 2.5 . Respiratory disease mortality in 31 Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2008 is taken as the main variable to study the spatial effect and impact of air quality and respiratory disease mortality on a large scale. Results : It was found that there is a spatial correlation between the mortality of respiratory diseases in Chinese provinces. The spatial correlation can be explained by the spatial effect of PM 2.5 pollutions in the control of other variables. Conclusions : Compared with the traditional non-spatial model, the spatial model is better for describing the spatial relationship between variables, ensuring the conclusions are scientific and can measure the spatial effect between variables.

A consistent hierarchy of generalized kinetic equation approximations to the master equation applied to surface catalysis.

PubMed

Herschlag, Gregory J; Mitran, Sorin; Lin, Guang

2015-06-21

We develop a hierarchy of approximations to the master equation for systems that exhibit translational invariance and finite-range spatial correlation. Each approximation within the hierarchy is a set of ordinary differential equations that considers spatial correlations of varying lattice distance; the assumption is that the full system will have finite spatial correlations and thus the behavior of the models within the hierarchy will approach that of the full system. We provide evidence of this convergence in the context of one- and two-dimensional numerical examples. Lower levels within the hierarchy that consider shorter spatial correlations are shown to be up to three orders of magnitude faster than traditional kinetic Monte Carlo methods (KMC) for one-dimensional systems, while predicting similar system dynamics and steady states as KMC methods. We then test the hierarchy on a two-dimensional model for the oxidation of CO on RuO2(110), showing that low-order truncations of the hierarchy efficiently capture the essential system dynamics. By considering sequences of models in the hierarchy that account for longer spatial correlations, successive model predictions may be used to establish empirical approximation of error estimates. The hierarchy may be thought of as a class of generalized phenomenological kinetic models since each element of the hierarchy approximates the master equation and the lowest level in the hierarchy is identical to a simple existing phenomenological kinetic models.

Using temporal detrending to observe the spatial correlation of traffic.

PubMed

Ermagun, Alireza; Chatterjee, Snigdhansu; Levinson, David

2017-01-01

This empirical study sheds light on the spatial correlation of traffic links under different traffic regimes. We mimic the behavior of real traffic by pinpointing the spatial correlation between 140 freeway traffic links in a major sub-network of the Minneapolis-St. Paul freeway system with a grid-like network topology. This topology enables us to juxtapose the positive and negative correlation between links, which has been overlooked in short-term traffic forecasting models. To accurately and reliably measure the correlation between traffic links, we develop an algorithm that eliminates temporal trends in three dimensions: (1) hourly dimension, (2) weekly dimension, and (3) system dimension for each link. The spatial correlation of traffic links exhibits a stronger negative correlation in rush hours, when congestion affects route choice. Although this correlation occurs mostly in parallel links, it is also observed upstream, where travelers receive information and are able to switch to substitute paths. Irrespective of the time-of-day and day-of-week, a strong positive correlation is witnessed between upstream and downstream links. This correlation is stronger in uncongested regimes, as traffic flow passes through consecutive links more quickly and there is no congestion effect to shift or stall traffic. The extracted spatial correlation structure can augment the accuracy of short-term traffic forecasting models.

Using temporal detrending to observe the spatial correlation of traffic

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

This empirical study sheds light on the spatial correlation of traffic links under different traffic regimes. We mimic the behavior of real traffic by pinpointing the spatial correlation between 140 freeway traffic links in a major sub-network of the Minneapolis—St. Paul freeway system with a grid-like network topology. This topology enables us to juxtapose the positive and negative correlation between links, which has been overlooked in short-term traffic forecasting models. To accurately and reliably measure the correlation between traffic links, we develop an algorithm that eliminates temporal trends in three dimensions: (1) hourly dimension, (2) weekly dimension, and (3) system dimension for each link. The spatial correlation of traffic links exhibits a stronger negative correlation in rush hours, when congestion affects route choice. Although this correlation occurs mostly in parallel links, it is also observed upstream, where travelers receive information and are able to switch to substitute paths. Irrespective of the time-of-day and day-of-week, a strong positive correlation is witnessed between upstream and downstream links. This correlation is stronger in uncongested regimes, as traffic flow passes through consecutive links more quickly and there is no congestion effect to shift or stall traffic. The extracted spatial correlation structure can augment the accuracy of short-term traffic forecasting models. PMID:28472093

China’s Air Quality and Respiratory Disease Mortality Based on the Spatial Panel Model

PubMed Central

Cao, Qilong; Liang, Ying; Niu, Xueting

2017-01-01

Background: Air pollution has become an important factor restricting China’s economic development and has subsequently brought a series of social problems, including the impact of air pollution on the health of residents, which is a topical issue in China. Methods: Taking into account this spatial imbalance, the paper is based on the spatial panel data model PM2.5. Respiratory disease mortality in 31 Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2008 is taken as the main variable to study the spatial effect and impact of air quality and respiratory disease mortality on a large scale. Results: It was found that there is a spatial correlation between the mortality of respiratory diseases in Chinese provinces. The spatial correlation can be explained by the spatial effect of PM2.5 pollutions in the control of other variables. Conclusions: Compared with the traditional non-spatial model, the spatial model is better for describing the spatial relationship between variables, ensuring the conclusions are scientific and can measure the spatial effect between variables. PMID:28927016

An Empirical Bayes Approach to Spatial Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, C. N.; Kostal, H.

1983-01-01

Multi-channel LANDSAT data are collected in several passes over agricultural areas during the growing season. How empirical Bayes modeling can be used to develop crop identification and discrimination techniques that account for spatial correlation in such data is considered. The approach models the unobservable parameters and the data separately, hoping to take advantage of the fact that the bulk of spatial correlation lies in the parameter process. The problem is then framed in terms of estimating posterior probabilities of crop types for each spatial area. Some empirical Bayes spatial estimation methods are used to estimate the logits of these probabilities.

Adding Spatially Correlated Noise to a Median Ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, J. M.; Egert, A. R.; Dao, E. V.; Colman, J. J.; Parris, R. T.

2017-12-01

We describe a process for adding spatially correlated noise to a background ionospheric model, in this case the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). Monthly median models do a good job describing bulk features of the ionosphere in a median sense. It is well known that the ionosphere almost never actually looks like its median. For the purposes of constructing an Operational System Simulation Experiment, it may be desirable to construct an ionosphere more similar to a particular instant, hour, or day than to the monthly median. We will examine selected data from the Global Ionosphere Radio Observatory (GIRO) database and estimate the amount of variance captured by the IRI model. We will then examine spatial and temporal correlations within the residuals. This analysis will be used to construct a temporal-spatial gridded ionosphere that represents a particular instantiation of those statistics.

The relationship between the spatial scaling of biodiversity and ecosystem stability

PubMed Central

Delsol, Robin; Loreau, Michel; Haegeman, Bart

2018-01-01

Aim Ecosystem stability and its link with biodiversity have mainly been studied at the local scale. Here we present a simple theoretical model to address the joint dependence of diversity and stability on spatial scale, from local to continental. Methods The notion of stability we use is based on the temporal variability of an ecosystem-level property, such as primary productivity. In this way, our model integrates the well-known species–area relationship (SAR) with a recent proposal to quantify the spatial scaling of stability, called the invariability–area relationship (IAR). Results We show that the link between the two relationships strongly depends on whether the temporal fluctuations of the ecosystem property of interest are more correlated within than between species. If fluctuations are correlated within species but not between them, then the IAR is strongly constrained by the SAR. If instead individual fluctuations are only correlated by spatial proximity, then the IAR is unrelated to the SAR. We apply these two correlation assumptions to explore the effects of species loss and habitat destruction on stability, and find a rich variety of multi-scale spatial dependencies, with marked differences between the two assumptions. Main conclusions The dependence of ecosystem stability on biodiversity across spatial scales is governed by the spatial decay of correlations within and between species. Our work provides a point of reference for mechanistic models and data analyses. More generally, it illustrates the relevance of macroecology for ecosystem functioning and stability. PMID:29651225

Pair and triplet approximation of a spatial lattice population model with multiscale dispersal using Markov chains for estimating spatial autocorrelation.

PubMed

Hiebeler, David E; Millett, Nicholas E

2011-06-21

We investigate a spatial lattice model of a population employing dispersal to nearest and second-nearest neighbors, as well as long-distance dispersal across the landscape. The model is studied via stochastic spatial simulations, ordinary pair approximation, and triplet approximation. The latter method, which uses the probabilities of state configurations of contiguous blocks of three sites as its state variables, is demonstrated to be greatly superior to pair approximations for estimating spatial correlation information at various scales. Correlations between pairs of sites separated by arbitrary distances are estimated by constructing spatial Markov processes using the information from both approximations. These correlations demonstrate why pair approximation misses basic qualitative features of the model, such as decreasing population density as a large proportion of offspring are dropped on second-nearest neighbors, and why triplet approximation is able to include them. Analytical and numerical results show that, excluding long-distance dispersal, the initial growth rate of an invading population is maximized and the equilibrium population density is also roughly maximized when the population spreads its offspring evenly over nearest and second-nearest neighboring sites. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Adjacency and Distance-Based Approaches for Spatial Analysis of Multimodal Traffic Crash Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, G.; Sakrani, T.; Cheng, W.; Zhou, J.

2017-09-01

Many studies have utilized the spatial correlations among traffic crash data to develop crash prediction models with the aim to investigate the influential factors or predict crash counts at different sites. The spatial correlation have been observed to account for heterogeneity in different forms of weight matrices which improves the estimation performance of models. But very rarely have the weight matrices been compared for the prediction accuracy for estimation of crash counts. This study was targeted at the comparison of two different approaches for modelling the spatial correlations among crash data at macro-level (County). Multivariate Full Bayesian crash prediction models were developed using Decay-50 (distance-based) and Queen-1 (adjacency-based) weight matrices for simultaneous estimation crash counts of four different modes: vehicle, motorcycle, bike, and pedestrian. The goodness-of-fit and different criteria for accuracy at prediction of crash count reveled the superiority of Decay-50 over Queen-1. Decay-50 was essentially different from Queen-1 with the selection of neighbors and more robust spatial weight structure which rendered the flexibility to accommodate the spatially correlated crash data. The consistently better performance of Decay-50 at prediction accuracy further bolstered its superiority. Although the data collection efforts to gather centroid distance among counties for Decay-50 may appear to be a downside, but the model has a significant edge to fit the crash data without losing the simplicity of computation of estimated crash count.

Support vector machine in crash prediction at the level of traffic analysis zones: Assessing the spatial proximity effects.

PubMed

Dong, Ni; Huang, Helai; Zheng, Liang

2015-09-01

In zone-level crash prediction, accounting for spatial dependence has become an extensively studied topic. This study proposes Support Vector Machine (SVM) model to address complex, large and multi-dimensional spatial data in crash prediction. Correlation-based Feature Selector (CFS) was applied to evaluate candidate factors possibly related to zonal crash frequency in handling high-dimension spatial data. To demonstrate the proposed approaches and to compare them with the Bayesian spatial model with conditional autoregressive prior (i.e., CAR), a dataset in Hillsborough county of Florida was employed. The results showed that SVM models accounting for spatial proximity outperform the non-spatial model in terms of model fitting and predictive performance, which indicates the reasonableness of considering cross-zonal spatial correlations. The best model predictive capability, relatively, is associated with the model considering proximity of the centroid distance by choosing the RBF kernel and setting the 10% of the whole dataset as the testing data, which further exhibits SVM models' capacity for addressing comparatively complex spatial data in regional crash prediction modeling. Moreover, SVM models exhibit the better goodness-of-fit compared with CAR models when utilizing the whole dataset as the samples. A sensitivity analysis of the centroid-distance-based spatial SVM models was conducted to capture the impacts of explanatory variables on the mean predicted probabilities for crash occurrence. While the results conform to the coefficient estimation in the CAR models, which supports the employment of the SVM model as an alternative in regional safety modeling. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the resolution-dependent utility of tomograms for geostatistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Day-Lewis, F. D.; Lane, J.W.

2004-01-01

Geophysical tomograms are used increasingly as auxiliary data for geostatistical modeling of aquifer and reservoir properties. The correlation between tomographic estimates and hydrogeologic properties is commonly based on laboratory measurements, co-located measurements at boreholes, or petrophysical models. The inferred correlation is assumed uniform throughout the interwell region; however, tomographic resolution varies spatially due to acquisition geometry, regularization, data error, and the physics underlying the geophysical measurements. Blurring and inversion artifacts are expected in regions traversed by few or only low-angle raypaths. In the context of radar traveltime tomography, we derive analytical models for (1) the variance of tomographic estimates, (2) the spatially variable correlation with a hydrologic parameter of interest, and (3) the spatial covariance of tomographic estimates. Synthetic examples demonstrate that tomograms of qualitative value may have limited utility for geostatistics; moreover, the imprint of regularization may preclude inference of meaningful spatial statistics from tomograms.

Failure criterion for materials with spatially correlated mechanical properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faillettaz, J.; Or, D.

2015-03-01

The role of spatially correlated mechanical elements in the failure behavior of heterogeneous materials represented by fiber bundle models (FBMs) was evaluated systematically for different load redistribution rules. Increasing the range of spatial correlation for FBMs with local load sharing is marked by a transition from ductilelike failure characteristics into brittlelike failure. The study identified a global failure criterion based on macroscopic properties (external load and cumulative damage) that is independent of spatial correlation or load redistribution rules. This general metric could be applied to assess the mechanical stability of complex and heterogeneous systems and thus provide an important component for early warning of a class of geophysical ruptures.

Spatial-temporal consistency between gross primary productivity and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence of vegetation in China during 2007-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, J.; Xiao, X.; Zhang, Y.; Chen, B.; Zhao, B.

2017-12-01

Great significance exists in accurately estimating spatial-temporal patterns of gross primary production (GPP) because of its important role in global carbon cycle. Satellite-based light use efficiency (LUE) models are regarded as an efficient tool in simulating spatially time-sires GPP. However, the estimation of the accuracy of GPP simulations from LUE at both spatial and temporal scales is still a challenging work. In this study, we simulated GPP of vegetation in China during 2007-2014 using a LUE model (Vegetation Photosynthesis Model, VPM) based on MODIS (moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer) images of 8-day temporal and 500-m spatial resolutions and NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) climate data. Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument 2 (GOME-2) solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) data were used to compare with VPM simulated GPP (GPPVPM) temporally and spatially using linear correlation analysis. Significant positive linear correlations exist between monthly GPPVPM and SIF data over both single year (2010) and multiple years (2007-2014) in China. Annual GPPVPM is significantly positive correlated with SIF (R2>0.43) spatially for all years during 2007-2014 and all seasons in 2010 (R2>0.37). GPP dynamic trends is high spatial-temporal heterogeneous in China during 2007-2014. The results of this study indicate that GPPVPM is temporally and spatially in line with SIF data, and space-borne SIF data have great potential in validating and parameterizing GPP estimation of LUE-based models.

Spatial modeling of households' knowledge about arsenic pollution in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Sarker, M Mizanur Rahman

2012-04-01

Arsenic in drinking water is an important public health issue in Bangladesh, which is affected by households' knowledge about arsenic threats from their drinking water. In this study, spatial statistical models were used to investigate the determinants and spatial dependence of households' knowledge about arsenic risk. The binary join matrix/binary contiguity matrix and inverse distance spatial weight matrix techniques are used to capture spatial dependence in the data. This analysis extends the spatial model by allowing spatial dependence to vary across divisions and regions. A positive spatial correlation was found in households' knowledge across neighboring districts at district, divisional and regional levels, but the strength of this spatial correlation varies considerably by spatial weight. Literacy rate, daily wage rate of agricultural labor, arsenic status, and percentage of red mark tube well usage in districts were found to contribute positively and significantly to households' knowledge. These findings have policy implications both at regional and national levels in mitigating the present arsenic crisis and to ensure arsenic-free water in Bangladesh. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A variance-decomposition approach to investigating multiscale habitat associations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawler, J.J.; Edwards, T.C.

2006-01-01

The recognition of the importance of spatial scale in ecology has led many researchers to take multiscale approaches to studying habitat associations. However, few of the studies that investigate habitat associations at multiple spatial scales have considered the potential effects of cross-scale correlations in measured habitat variables. When cross-scale correlations in such studies are strong, conclusions drawn about the relative strength of habitat associations at different spatial scales may be inaccurate. Here we adapt and demonstrate an analytical technique based on variance decomposition for quantifying the influence of cross-scale correlations on multiscale habitat associations. We used the technique to quantify the variation in nest-site locations of Red-naped Sapsuckers (Sphyrapicus nuchalis) and Northern Flickers (Colaptes auratus) associated with habitat descriptors at three spatial scales. We demonstrate how the method can be used to identify components of variation that are associated only with factors at a single spatial scale as well as shared components of variation that represent cross-scale correlations. Despite the fact that no explanatory variables in our models were highly correlated (r < 0.60), we found that shared components of variation reflecting cross-scale correlations accounted for roughly half of the deviance explained by the models. These results highlight the importance of both conducting habitat analyses at multiple spatial scales and of quantifying the effects of cross-scale correlations in such analyses. Given the limits of conventional analytical techniques, we recommend alternative methods, such as the variance-decomposition technique demonstrated here, for analyzing habitat associations at multiple spatial scales. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

A Patch Density Recommendation based on Convergence Studies for Vehicle Panel Vibration Response resulting from Excitation by a Diffuse Acoustic Field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Andrew; LaVerde, Bruce; Jones, Douglas; Towner, Robert; Waldon, James; Hunt, Ron

2013-01-01

Producing fluid structural interaction estimates of panel vibration from an applied pressure field excitation are quite dependent on the spatial correlation of the pressure field. There is a danger of either over estimating a low frequency response or under predicting broad band panel response in the more modally dense bands if the pressure field spatial correlation is not accounted for adequately. It is a useful practice to simulate the spatial correlation of the applied pressure field over a 2d surface using a matrix of small patch area regions on a finite element model (FEM). Use of a fitted function for the spatial correlation between patch centers can result in an error if the choice of patch density is not fine enough to represent the more continuous spatial correlation function throughout the intended frequency range of interest. Several patch density assumptions to approximate the fitted spatial correlation function are first evaluated using both qualitative and quantitative illustrations. The actual response of a typical vehicle panel system FEM is then examined in a convergence study where the patch density assumptions are varied over the same model. The convergence study results illustrate the impacts possible from a poor choice of patch density on the analytical response estimate. The fitted correlation function used in this study represents a diffuse acoustic field (DAF) excitation of the panel to produce vibration response.

Spatially explicit models for inference about density in unmarked or partially marked populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chandler, Richard B.; Royle, J. Andrew

2013-01-01

Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models represent a major advance over traditional capture–recapture (CR) models because they yield explicit estimates of animal density instead of population size within an unknown area. Furthermore, unlike nonspatial CR methods, SCR models account for heterogeneity in capture probability arising from the juxtaposition of animal activity centers and sample locations. Although the utility of SCR methods is gaining recognition, the requirement that all individuals can be uniquely identified excludes their use in many contexts. In this paper, we develop models for situations in which individual recognition is not possible, thereby allowing SCR concepts to be applied in studies of unmarked or partially marked populations. The data required for our model are spatially referenced counts made on one or more sample occasions at a collection of closely spaced sample units such that individuals can be encountered at multiple locations. Our approach includes a spatial point process for the animal activity centers and uses the spatial correlation in counts as information about the number and location of the activity centers. Camera-traps, hair snares, track plates, sound recordings, and even point counts can yield spatially correlated count data, and thus our model is widely applicable. A simulation study demonstrated that while the posterior mean exhibits frequentist bias on the order of 5–10% in small samples, the posterior mode is an accurate point estimator as long as adequate spatial correlation is present. Marking a subset of the population substantially increases posterior precision and is recommended whenever possible. We applied our model to avian point count data collected on an unmarked population of the northern parula (Parula americana) and obtained a density estimate (posterior mode) of 0.38 (95% CI: 0.19–1.64) birds/ha. Our paper challenges sampling and analytical conventions in ecology by demonstrating that neither spatial independence nor individual recognition is needed to estimate population density—rather, spatial dependence can be informative about individual distribution and density.

Spatial correlations and exact solution of the problem of the boson peak profile in amorphous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirillov, Sviatoslav A.; A. Voyiatzis, George; Kolomiyets, Tatiana M.; H. Anastasiadis, Spiros

1999-11-01

Based on a model correlation function which covers spatial correlations from Gaussian to exponential, we have arrived at an exact analytic solution of the problem of the Boson peak profile in amorphous media. Probe fits made for polyisoprene and triacetin prove the working ability of the formulae obtained.

Spatio-temporal correlations in the Manna model in one, three and five dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willis, Gary; Pruessner, Gunnar

2018-02-01

Although the paradigm of criticality is centered around spatial correlations and their anomalous scaling, not many studies of self-organized criticality (SOC) focus on spatial correlations. Often, integrated observables, such as avalanche size and duration, are used, not least as to avoid complications due to the unavoidable lack of translational invariance. The present work is a survey of spatio-temporal correlation functions in the Manna Model of SOC, measured numerically in detail in d = 1,3 and 5 dimensions and compared to theoretical results, in particular relating them to “integrated” observables such as avalanche size and duration scaling, that measure them indirectly. Contrary to the notion held by some of SOC models organizing into a critical state by re-arranging their spatial structure avalanche by avalanche, which may be expected to result in large, nontrivial, system-spanning spatial correlations in the quiescent state (between avalanches), correlations of inactive particles in the quiescent state have a small amplitude that does not and cannot increase with the system size, although they display (noisy) power law scaling over a range linear in the system size. Self-organization, however, does take place as the (one-point) density of inactive particles organizes into a particular profile that is asymptotically independent of the driving location, also demonstrated analytically in one dimension. Activity and its correlations, on the other hand, display nontrivial long-ranged spatio-temporal scaling with exponents that can be related to established results, in particular avalanche size and duration exponents. The correlation length and amplitude are set by the system size (confirmed analytically for some observables), as expected in systems displaying finite size scaling. In one dimension, we find some surprising inconsistencies of the dynamical exponent. A (spatially extended) mean field theory (MFT) is recovered, with some corrections, in five dimensions.

Attempting to physically explain space-time correlation of extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardara, Pietro; Gailhard, Joel

2010-05-01

Spatial and temporal clustering of hydro-meteorological extreme events is scientific evidence. Moreover, the statistical parameters characterizing their local frequencies of occurrence show clear spatial patterns. Thus, in order to robustly assess the hydro-meteorological hazard, statistical models need to be able to take into account spatial and temporal dependencies. Statistical models considering long term correlation for quantifying and qualifying temporal and spatial dependencies are available, such as multifractal approach. Furthermore, the development of regional frequency analysis techniques allows estimating the frequency of occurrence of extreme events taking into account spatial patterns on the extreme quantiles behaviour. However, in order to understand the origin of spatio-temporal clustering, an attempt to find physical explanation should be done. Here, some statistical evidences of spatio-temporal correlation and spatial patterns of extreme behaviour are given on a large database of more than 400 rainfall and discharge series in France. In particular, the spatial distribution of multifractal and Generalized Pareto distribution parameters shows evident correlation patterns in the behaviour of frequency of occurrence of extremes. It is then shown that the identification of atmospheric circulation pattern (weather types) can physically explain the temporal clustering of extreme rainfall events (seasonality) and the spatial pattern of the frequency of occurrence. Moreover, coupling this information with the hydrological modelization of a watershed (as in the Schadex approach) an explanation of spatio-temporal distribution of extreme discharge can also be provided. We finally show that a hydro-meteorological approach (as the Schadex approach) can explain and take into account space and time dependencies of hydro-meteorological extreme events.

Spatial-temporal consistency between gross primary productivity and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence of vegetation in China during 2007-2014.

PubMed

Ma, Jun; Xiao, Xiangming; Zhang, Yao; Doughty, Russell; Chen, Bangqian; Zhao, Bin

2018-10-15

Accurately estimating spatial-temporal patterns of gross primary production (GPP) is important for the global carbon cycle. Satellite-based light use efficiency (LUE) models are regarded as an efficient tool in simulating spatial-temporal dynamics of GPP. However, the accuracy assessment of GPP simulations from LUE models at both spatial and temporal scales remains a challenge. In this study, we simulated GPP of vegetation in China during 2007-2014 using a LUE model (Vegetation Photosynthesis Model, VPM) based on MODIS (moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer) images with 8-day temporal and 500-m spatial resolutions and NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) climate data. Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument 2 (GOME-2) solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) data were used to compare with VPM simulated GPP (GPP VPM ) temporally and spatially using linear correlation analysis. Significant positive linear correlations exist between monthly GPP VPM and SIF data over a single year (2010) and multiple years (2007-2014) in most areas of China. GPP VPM is also significantly positive correlated with GOME-2 SIF (R 2  > 0.43) spatially for seasonal scales. However, poor consistency was detected between GPP VPM and SIF data at yearly scale. GPP dynamic trends have high spatial-temporal variation in China during 2007-2014. Temperature, leaf area index (LAI), and precipitation are the most important factors influence GPP VPM in the regions of East Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Loss Plateau, and Southwestern China, respectively. The results of this study indicate that GPP VPM is temporally and spatially in line with GOME-2 SIF data, and space-borne SIF data have great potential for evaluating LUE-based GPP models. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of Spatial Variability of Soil Properties on the Triggering of Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Linfeng; Lehmann, Peter; Or, Dani

2015-04-01

Naturally-occurring spatial variations in soil properties (e.g., soil depth, moisture, and texture) affect key hydrological processes and potentially the mechanical response of soil to hydromechanical loading (relative to the commonly-assumed uniform soil mantle). We quantified the effects of soil spatial variability on the triggering of rainfall-induced shallow landslides at the hillslope- and catchment-scales, using a physically-based landslide triggering model that considers interacting soil columns with mechanical strength thresholds (represented by the Fiber Bundle Model). The spatial variations in soil properties are represented as Gaussian random distributions and the level of variation is characterized by the coefficient of variation and correlation lengths of soil properties (i.e., soil depth, soil texture and initial water content in this study). The impacts of these spatial variations on landslide triggering characteristics were measured by comparing the times to triggering and landslide volumes for heterogeneous soil properties and homogeneous cases. Results at hillslope scale indicate that for spatial variations of an individual property (without cross correlation), the increasing of coefficient of variation introduces weak spots where mechanical damage is accelerated and leads to earlier onset of landslide triggering and smaller volumes. Increasing spatial correlation length of soil texture and initial water content also induces early landslide triggering and small released volumes due to the transition of failure mode from brittle to ductile failure. In contrast, increasing spatial correlation length of soil depth "reduces" local steepness and postpones landslide triggering. Cross-correlated soil properties generally promote landslide initiation, but depending on the internal structure of spatial distribution of each soil property, landslide triggering may be reduced. The effects of cross-correlation between initial water content and soil texture were investigated in detail at the catchment scale by incorporating correlations of both variables with topography. Results indicate that the internal structure of the spatial distribution of each soil property together with their interplays determine the overall performance of the coupled spatial variability. This study emphasizes the importance of both the randomness and spatial structure of soil properties on landslide triggering and characteristics.

[Prediction and spatial distribution of recruitment trees of natural secondary forest based on geographically weighted Poisson model].

PubMed

Zhang, Ling Yu; Liu, Zhao Gang

2017-12-01

Based on the data collected from 108 permanent plots of the forest resources survey in Maoershan Experimental Forest Farm during 2004-2016, this study investigated the spatial distribution of recruitment trees in natural secondary forest by global Poisson regression and geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) with four bandwidths of 2.5, 5, 10 and 15 km. The simulation effects of the 5 regressions and the factors influencing the recruitment trees in stands were analyzed, a description was given to the spatial autocorrelation of the regression residuals on global and local levels using Moran's I. The results showed that the spatial distribution of the number of natural secondary forest recruitment was significantly influenced by stands and topographic factors, especially average DBH. The GWPR model with small scale (2.5 km) had high accuracy of model fitting, a large range of model parameter estimates was generated, and the localized spatial distribution effect of the model parameters was obtained. The GWPR model at small scale (2.5 and 5 km) had produced a small range of model residuals, and the stability of the model was improved. The global spatial auto-correlation of the GWPR model residual at the small scale (2.5 km) was the lowe-st, and the local spatial auto-correlation was significantly reduced, in which an ideal spatial distribution pattern of small clusters with different observations was formed. The local model at small scale (2.5 km) was much better than the global model in the simulation effect on the spatial distribution of recruitment tree number.

Generating daily high spatial land surface temperatures by combining ASTER and MODIS land surface temperature products for environmental process monitoring.

PubMed

Wu, Mingquan; Li, Hua; Huang, Wenjiang; Niu, Zheng; Wang, Changyao

2015-08-01

There is a shortage of daily high spatial land surface temperature (LST) data for use in high spatial and temporal resolution environmental process monitoring. To address this shortage, this work used the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM), Enhanced Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (ESTARFM), and the Spatial and Temporal Data Fusion Approach (STDFA) to estimate high spatial and temporal resolution LST by combining Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) LST and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST products. The actual ASTER LST products were used to evaluate the precision of the combined LST images using the correlation analysis method. This method was tested and validated in study areas located in Gansu Province, China. The results show that all the models can generate daily synthetic LST image with a high correlation coefficient (r) of 0.92 between the synthetic image and the actual ASTER LST observations. The ESTARFM has the best performance, followed by the STDFA and the STARFM. Those models had better performance in desert areas than in cropland. The STDFA had better noise immunity than the other two models.

Regional-specific Stochastic Simulation of Spatially-distributed Ground-motion Time Histories using Wavelet Packet Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, D.; Wang, G.

2014-12-01

Stochastic simulation of spatially distributed ground-motion time histories is important for performance-based earthquake design of geographically distributed systems. In this study, we develop a novel technique to stochastically simulate regionalized ground-motion time histories using wavelet packet analysis. First, a transient acceleration time history is characterized by wavelet-packet parameters proposed by Yamamoto and Baker (2013). The wavelet-packet parameters fully characterize ground-motion time histories in terms of energy content, time- frequency-domain characteristics and time-frequency nonstationarity. This study further investigates the spatial cross-correlations of wavelet-packet parameters based on geostatistical analysis of 1500 regionalized ground motion data from eight well-recorded earthquakes in California, Mexico, Japan and Taiwan. The linear model of coregionalization (LMC) is used to develop a permissible spatial cross-correlation model for each parameter group. The geostatistical analysis of ground-motion data from different regions reveals significant dependence of the LMC structure on regional site conditions, which can be characterized by the correlation range of Vs30 in each region. In general, the spatial correlation and cross-correlation of wavelet-packet parameters are stronger if the site condition is more homogeneous. Using the regional-specific spatial cross-correlation model and cokriging technique, wavelet packet parameters at unmeasured locations can be best estimated, and regionalized ground-motion time histories can be synthesized. Case studies and blind tests demonstrated that the simulated ground motions generally agree well with the actual recorded data, if the influence of regional-site conditions is considered. The developed method has great potential to be used in computational-based seismic analysis and loss estimation in a regional scale.

Latent spatial models and sampling design for landscape genetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Knick, Steven T.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Fike, Jennifer A.; Cross, Todd B.; Schwartz, Michael K.

2016-01-01

We propose a spatially-explicit approach for modeling genetic variation across space and illustrate how this approach can be used to optimize spatial prediction and sampling design for landscape genetic data. We propose a multinomial data model for categorical microsatellite allele data commonly used in landscape genetic studies, and introduce a latent spatial random effect to allow for spatial correlation between genetic observations. We illustrate how modern dimension reduction approaches to spatial statistics can allow for efficient computation in landscape genetic statistical models covering large spatial domains. We apply our approach to propose a retrospective spatial sampling design for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population genetics in the western United States.

Quantifying spatial scaling patterns and their local and regional correlates in headwater streams: Implications for resilience

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gothe, Emma; Sandin, Leonard; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.

2014-01-01

The distribution of functional traits within and across spatiotemporal scales has been used to quantify and infer the relative resilience across ecosystems. We use explicit spatial modeling to evaluate within- and cross-scale redundancy in headwater streams, an ecosystem type with a hierarchical and dendritic network structure. We assessed the cross-scale distribution of functional feeding groups of benthic invertebrates in Swedish headwater streams during two seasons. We evaluated functional metrics, i.e., Shannon diversity, richness, and evenness, and the degree of redundancy within and across modeled spatial scales for individual feeding groups. We also estimated the correlates of environmental versus spatial factors of both functional composition and the taxonomic composition of functional groups for each spatial scale identified. Measures of functional diversity and within-scale redundancy of functions were similar during both seasons, but both within- and cross-scale redundancy were low. This apparent low redundancy was partly attributable to a few dominant taxa explaining the spatial models. However, rare taxa with stochastic spatial distributions might provide additional information and should therefore be considered explicitly for complementing future resilience assessments. Otherwise, resilience may be underestimated. Finally, both environmental and spatial factors correlated with the scale-specific functional and taxonomic composition. This finding suggests that resilience in stream networks emerges as a function of not only local conditions but also regional factors such as habitat connectivity and invertebrate dispersal.

Tensor-guided fitting of subduction slab depths

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bazargani, Farhad; Hayes, Gavin P.

2013-01-01

Geophysical measurements are often acquired at scattered locations in space. Therefore, interpolating or fitting the sparsely sampled data as a uniform function of space (a procedure commonly known as gridding) is a ubiquitous problem in geophysics. Most gridding methods require a model of spatial correlation for data. This spatial correlation model can often be inferred from some sort of secondary information, which may also be sparsely sampled in space. In this paper, we present a new method to model the geometry of a subducting slab in which we use a data‐fitting approach to address the problem. Earthquakes and active‐source seismic surveys provide estimates of depths of subducting slabs but only at scattered locations. In addition to estimates of depths from earthquake locations, focal mechanisms of subduction zone earthquakes also provide estimates of the strikes of the subducting slab on which they occur. We use these spatially sparse strike samples and the Earth’s curved surface geometry to infer a model for spatial correlation that guides a blended neighbor interpolation of slab depths. We then modify the interpolation method to account for the uncertainties associated with the depth estimates.

A spatially explicit approach to the study of socio-demographic inequality in the spatial distribution of trees across Boston neighborhoods.

PubMed

Duncan, Dustin T; Kawachi, Ichiro; Kum, Susan; Aldstadt, Jared; Piras, Gianfranco; Matthews, Stephen A; Arbia, Giuseppe; Castro, Marcia C; White, Kellee; Williams, David R

2014-04-01

The racial/ethnic and income composition of neighborhoods often influences local amenities, including the potential spatial distribution of trees, which are important for population health and community wellbeing, particularly in urban areas. This ecological study used spatial analytical methods to assess the relationship between neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics (i.e. minority racial/ethnic composition and poverty) and tree density at the census tact level in Boston, Massachusetts (US). We examined spatial autocorrelation with the Global Moran's I for all study variables and in the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression residuals as well as computed Spearman correlations non-adjusted and adjusted for spatial autocorrelation between socio-demographic characteristics and tree density. Next, we fit traditional regressions (i.e. OLS regression models) and spatial regressions (i.e. spatial simultaneous autoregressive models), as appropriate. We found significant positive spatial autocorrelation for all neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics (Global Moran's I range from 0.24 to 0.86, all P =0.001), for tree density (Global Moran's I =0.452, P =0.001), and in the OLS regression residuals (Global Moran's I range from 0.32 to 0.38, all P <0.001). Therefore, we fit the spatial simultaneous autoregressive models. There was a negative correlation between neighborhood percent non-Hispanic Black and tree density (r S =-0.19; conventional P -value=0.016; spatially adjusted P -value=0.299) as well as a negative correlation between predominantly non-Hispanic Black (over 60% Black) neighborhoods and tree density (r S =-0.18; conventional P -value=0.019; spatially adjusted P -value=0.180). While the conventional OLS regression model found a marginally significant inverse relationship between Black neighborhoods and tree density, we found no statistically significant relationship between neighborhood socio-demographic composition and tree density in the spatial regression models. Methodologically, our study suggests the need to take into account spatial autocorrelation as findings/conclusions can change when the spatial autocorrelation is ignored. Substantively, our findings suggest no need for policy intervention vis-à-vis trees in Boston, though we hasten to add that replication studies, and more nuanced data on tree quality, age and diversity are needed.

A geostatistical state-space model of animal densities for stream networks.

PubMed

Hocking, Daniel J; Thorson, James T; O'Neil, Kyle; Letcher, Benjamin H

2018-06-21

Population dynamics are often correlated in space and time due to correlations in environmental drivers as well as synchrony induced by individual dispersal. Many statistical analyses of populations ignore potential autocorrelations and assume that survey methods (distance and time between samples) eliminate these correlations, allowing samples to be treated independently. If these assumptions are incorrect, results and therefore inference may be biased and uncertainty under-estimated. We developed a novel statistical method to account for spatio-temporal correlations within dendritic stream networks, while accounting for imperfect detection in the surveys. Through simulations, we found this model decreased predictive error relative to standard statistical methods when data were spatially correlated based on stream distance and performed similarly when data were not correlated. We found that increasing the number of years surveyed substantially improved the model accuracy when estimating spatial and temporal correlation coefficients, especially from 10 to 15 years. Increasing the number of survey sites within the network improved the performance of the non-spatial model but only marginally improved the density estimates in the spatio-temporal model. We applied this model to Brook Trout data from the West Susquehanna Watershed in Pennsylvania collected over 34 years from 1981 - 2014. We found the model including temporal and spatio-temporal autocorrelation best described young-of-the-year (YOY) and adult density patterns. YOY densities were positively related to forest cover and negatively related to spring temperatures with low temporal autocorrelation and moderately-high spatio-temporal correlation. Adult densities were less strongly affected by climatic conditions and less temporally variable than YOY but with similar spatio-temporal correlation and higher temporal autocorrelation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Spatial dependence and correlation of rainfall in the Danube catchment and its role in flood risk assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martina, M. L. V.; Vitolo, R.; Todini, E.; Stephenson, D. B.; Cook, I. M.

2009-04-01

The possibility that multiple catastrophic events occur within a given timespan and affect the same portfolio of insured properties may induce enhanced risk. For this reason, in the insurance industry it is of interest to characterise not only the point probability of catastrophic events, but also their spatial structure. As far as floods are concerned it is important to determine the probability of having multiple simultaneous events in different parts of the same basin: in this case, indeed, the loss in a portfolio can be significantly different. Understanding the spatial structure of the precipitation field is a necessary step for the proper modelling of the spatial dependence and correlation of river discharge. Several stochastic models are available in the scientific literature for the multi-site generation of precipitation. Although most models achieve good performance in modelling mean values, temporal variability and inter-site dependence of extremes are still delicate issues. In this work we aim at identifying the main spatial characteristics of the precipitation structure and then at analysing them in a real case. We consider data from a large network of raingauges in the Danube catchment. This catchment is a good example of a large-scale catchment where the spatial correlation of flood events can radically change the effect in term of flood damage.

Revisiting Temporal Markov Chains for Continuum modeling of Transport in Porous Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delgoshaie, A. H.; Jenny, P.; Tchelepi, H.

2017-12-01

The transport of fluids in porous media is dominated by flow­-field heterogeneity resulting from the underlying permeability field. Due to the high uncertainty in the permeability field, many realizations of the reference geological model are used to describe the statistics of the transport phenomena in a Monte Carlo (MC) framework. There has been strong interest in working with stochastic formulations of the transport that are different from the standard MC approach. Several stochastic models based on a velocity process for tracer particle trajectories have been proposed. Previous studies have shown that for high variances of the log-conductivity, the stochastic models need to account for correlations between consecutive velocity transitions to predict dispersion accurately. The correlated velocity models proposed in the literature can be divided into two general classes of temporal and spatial Markov models. Temporal Markov models have been applied successfully to tracer transport in both the longitudinal and transverse directions. These temporal models are Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) with very specific drift and diffusion terms tailored for a specific permeability correlation structure. The drift and diffusion functions devised for a certain setup would not necessarily be suitable for a different scenario, (e.g., a different permeability correlation structure). The spatial Markov models are simple discrete Markov chains that do not require case specific assumptions. However, transverse spreading of contaminant plumes has not been successfully modeled with the available correlated spatial models. Here, we propose a temporal discrete Markov chain to model both the longitudinal and transverse dispersion in a two-dimensional domain. We demonstrate that these temporal Markov models are valid for different correlation structures without modification. Similar to the temporal SDEs, the proposed model respects the limited asymptotic transverse spreading of the plume in two-dimensional problems.

A Statistical Model for Estimation of Fish Density Including Correlation in Size, Space, Time and between Species from Research Survey Data

PubMed Central

Bastardie, Francois

2014-01-01

Trawl survey data with high spatial and seasonal coverage were analysed using a variant of the Log Gaussian Cox Process (LGCP) statistical model to estimate unbiased relative fish densities. The model estimates correlations between observations according to time, space, and fish size and includes zero observations and over-dispersion. The model utilises the fact the correlation between numbers of fish caught increases when the distance in space and time between the fish decreases, and the correlation between size groups in a haul increases when the difference in size decreases. Here the model is extended in two ways. Instead of assuming a natural scale size correlation, the model is further developed to allow for a transformed length scale. Furthermore, in the present application, the spatial- and size-dependent correlation between species was included. For cod (Gadus morhua) and whiting (Merlangius merlangus), a common structured size correlation was fitted, and a separable structure between the time and space-size correlation was found for each species, whereas more complex structures were required to describe the correlation between species (and space-size). The within-species time correlation is strong, whereas the correlations between the species are weaker over time but strong within the year. PMID:24911631

Spatial Correlation in the Ambient Core Noise Field of a Turbofan Engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miles, Jeffrey Hilton

2012-01-01

An acoustic transfer function relating combustion noise and turbine exit noise in the presence of enclosed ambient core noise is investigated using a dynamic system model and an acoustic system model for the particular turbofan engine studied and for a range of operating conditions. Measurements of cross-spectra magnitude and phase between the combustor and turbine exit and auto-spectra at the turbine exit and combustor are used to show the presence of indirect and direct combustion noise over the frequency range of 0 400 Hz. The procedure used evaluates the ratio of direct to indirect combustion noise. The procedure used also evaluates the post-combustion residence time in the combustor which is a factor in the formation of thermal NOx and soot in this region. These measurements are masked by the ambient core noise sound field in this frequency range which is observable since the transducers are situated within an acoustic wavelength of one another. An ambient core noise field model based on one and two dimensional spatial correlation functions is used to replicate the spatially correlated response of the pair of transducers. The spatial correlation function increases measured attenuation due to destructive interference and masks the true attenuation of the turbine.

Spatial distribution of nuclei in progressive nucleation: Modeling and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomellini, Massimo

2018-04-01

Phase transformations ruled by non-simultaneous nucleation and growth do not lead to random distribution of nuclei. Since nucleation is only allowed in the untransformed portion of space, positions of nuclei are correlated. In this article an analytical approach is presented for computing pair-correlation function of nuclei in progressive nucleation. This quantity is further employed for characterizing the spatial distribution of nuclei through the nearest neighbor distribution function. The modeling is developed for nucleation in 2D space with power growth law and it is applied to describe electrochemical nucleation where correlation effects are significant. Comparison with both computer simulations and experimental data lends support to the model which gives insights into the transition from Poissonian to correlated nearest neighbor probability density.

Blob-hole correlation model for edge turbulence and comparisons with NSTX gas puff imaging data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myra, J. R.; Zweben, S. J.; Russell, D. A.

2018-07-01

Gas puff imaging (GPI) observations made in NSTX (Zweben et al 2017 Phys. Plasmas 24 102509) have revealed two-point spatial correlations of edge and scrape-off layer (SOL) turbulence in the plane perpendicular to the magnetic field. A common feature is the occurrence of dipole-like patterns with significant regions of negative correlation. In this paper, we explore the possibility that these dipole patterns may be due to blob-hole pairs. Statistical methods are applied to determine the two-point spatial correlation that results from a model of blob-hole pair formation. It is shown that the model produces dipole correlation patterns that are qualitatively similar to the GPI data in several respects. Effects of the reference location (confined surfaces or SOL), a superimposed random background, hole velocity and lifetime, and background sheared flows are explored and discussed with respect to experimental observations. Additional analysis of the experimental GPI dataset is performed to further test this blob-hole correlation model. A time delay two-point spatial correlation study did not reveal inward propagation of the negative correlation structures that were postulated to correspond to holes in the data nor did it suggest that the negative correlation structures are due to neutral shadowing. However, tracking of the highest and lowest values (extrema) of the normalized GPI fluctuations shows strong evidence for mean inward propagation of minima and outward propagation of maxima, in qualitative agreement with theoretical expectations. Other properties of the experimentally observed extrema are discussed.

EIT image reconstruction with four dimensional regularization.

PubMed

Dai, Tao; Soleimani, Manuchehr; Adler, Andy

2008-09-01

Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) reconstructs internal impedance images of the body from electrical measurements on body surface. The temporal resolution of EIT data can be very high, although the spatial resolution of the images is relatively low. Most EIT reconstruction algorithms calculate images from data frames independently, although data are actually highly correlated especially in high speed EIT systems. This paper proposes a 4-D EIT image reconstruction for functional EIT. The new approach is developed to directly use prior models of the temporal correlations among images and 3-D spatial correlations among image elements. A fast algorithm is also developed to reconstruct the regularized images. Image reconstruction is posed in terms of an augmented image and measurement vector which are concatenated from a specific number of previous and future frames. The reconstruction is then based on an augmented regularization matrix which reflects the a priori constraints on temporal and 3-D spatial correlations of image elements. A temporal factor reflecting the relative strength of the image correlation is objectively calculated from measurement data. Results show that image reconstruction models which account for inter-element correlations, in both space and time, show improved resolution and noise performance, in comparison to simpler image models.

Is a matrix exponential specification suitable for the modeling of spatial correlation structures?

PubMed Central

Strauß, Magdalena E.; Mezzetti, Maura; Leorato, Samantha

2018-01-01

This paper investigates the adequacy of the matrix exponential spatial specifications (MESS) as an alternative to the widely used spatial autoregressive models (SAR). To provide as complete a picture as possible, we extend the analysis to all the main spatial models governed by matrix exponentials comparing them with their spatial autoregressive counterparts. We propose a new implementation of Bayesian parameter estimation for the MESS model with vague prior distributions, which is shown to be precise and computationally efficient. Our implementations also account for spatially lagged regressors. We further allow for location-specific heterogeneity, which we model by including spatial splines. We conclude by comparing the performances of the different model specifications in applications to a real data set and by running simulations. Both the applications and the simulations suggest that the spatial splines are a flexible and efficient way to account for spatial heterogeneities governed by unknown mechanisms. PMID:29492375

The study of combining Latin Hypercube Sampling method and LU decomposition method (LULHS method) for constructing spatial random field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WANG, P. T.

2015-12-01

Groundwater modeling requires to assign hydrogeological properties to every numerical grid. Due to the lack of detailed information and the inherent spatial heterogeneity, geological properties can be treated as random variables. Hydrogeological property is assumed to be a multivariate distribution with spatial correlations. By sampling random numbers from a given statistical distribution and assigning a value to each grid, a random field for modeling can be completed. Therefore, statistics sampling plays an important role in the efficiency of modeling procedure. Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) is a stratified random sampling procedure that provides an efficient way to sample variables from their multivariate distributions. This study combines the the stratified random procedure from LHS and the simulation by using LU decomposition to form LULHS. Both conditional and unconditional simulations of LULHS were develpoed. The simulation efficiency and spatial correlation of LULHS are compared to the other three different simulation methods. The results show that for the conditional simulation and unconditional simulation, LULHS method is more efficient in terms of computational effort. Less realizations are required to achieve the required statistical accuracy and spatial correlation.

The Effect of Velocity Correlation on the Spatial Evolution of Breakthrough Curves in Heterogeneous Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massoudieh, A.; Dentz, M.; Le Borgne, T.

2017-12-01

In heterogeneous media, the velocity distribution and the spatial correlation structure of velocity for solute particles determine the breakthrough curves and how they evolve as one moves away from the solute source. The ability to predict such evolution can help relating the spatio-statistical hydraulic properties of the media to the transport behavior and travel time distributions. While commonly used non-local transport models such as anomalous dispersion and classical continuous time random walk (CTRW) can reproduce breakthrough curve successfully by adjusting the model parameter values, they lack the ability to relate model parameters to the spatio-statistical properties of the media. This in turns limits the transferability of these models. In the research to be presented, we express concentration or flux of solutes as a distribution over their velocity. We then derive an integrodifferential equation that governs the evolution of the particle distribution over velocity at given times and locations for a particle ensemble, based on a presumed velocity correlation structure and an ergodic cross-sectional velocity distribution. This way, the spatial evolution of breakthrough curves away from the source is predicted based on cross-sectional velocity distribution and the connectivity, which is expressed by the velocity transition probability density. The transition probability is specified via a copula function that can help construct a joint distribution with a given correlation and given marginal velocities. Using this approach, we analyze the breakthrough curves depending on the velocity distribution and correlation properties. The model shows how the solute transport behavior evolves from ballistic transport at small spatial scales to Fickian dispersion at large length scales relative to the velocity correlation length.

Predicting detection performance with model observers: Fourier domain or spatial domain?

PubMed

Chen, Baiyu; Yu, Lifeng; Leng, Shuai; Kofler, James; Favazza, Christopher; Vrieze, Thomas; McCollough, Cynthia

2016-02-27

The use of Fourier domain model observer is challenged by iterative reconstruction (IR), because IR algorithms are nonlinear and IR images have noise texture different from that of FBP. A modified Fourier domain model observer, which incorporates nonlinear noise and resolution properties, has been proposed for IR and needs to be validated with human detection performance. On the other hand, the spatial domain model observer is theoretically applicable to IR, but more computationally intensive than the Fourier domain method. The purpose of this study is to compare the modified Fourier domain model observer to the spatial domain model observer with both FBP and IR images, using human detection performance as the gold standard. A phantom with inserts of various low contrast levels and sizes was repeatedly scanned 100 times on a third-generation, dual-source CT scanner at 5 dose levels and reconstructed using FBP and IR algorithms. The human detection performance of the inserts was measured via a 2-alternative-forced-choice (2AFC) test. In addition, two model observer performances were calculated, including a Fourier domain non-prewhitening model observer and a spatial domain channelized Hotelling observer. The performance of these two mode observers was compared in terms of how well they correlated with human observer performance. Our results demonstrated that the spatial domain model observer correlated well with human observers across various dose levels, object contrast levels, and object sizes. The Fourier domain observer correlated well with human observers using FBP images, but overestimated the detection performance using IR images.

Predicting detection performance with model observers: Fourier domain or spatial domain?

PubMed Central

Chen, Baiyu; Yu, Lifeng; Leng, Shuai; Kofler, James; Favazza, Christopher; Vrieze, Thomas; McCollough, Cynthia

2016-01-01

The use of Fourier domain model observer is challenged by iterative reconstruction (IR), because IR algorithms are nonlinear and IR images have noise texture different from that of FBP. A modified Fourier domain model observer, which incorporates nonlinear noise and resolution properties, has been proposed for IR and needs to be validated with human detection performance. On the other hand, the spatial domain model observer is theoretically applicable to IR, but more computationally intensive than the Fourier domain method. The purpose of this study is to compare the modified Fourier domain model observer to the spatial domain model observer with both FBP and IR images, using human detection performance as the gold standard. A phantom with inserts of various low contrast levels and sizes was repeatedly scanned 100 times on a third-generation, dual-source CT scanner at 5 dose levels and reconstructed using FBP and IR algorithms. The human detection performance of the inserts was measured via a 2-alternative-forced-choice (2AFC) test. In addition, two model observer performances were calculated, including a Fourier domain non-prewhitening model observer and a spatial domain channelized Hotelling observer. The performance of these two mode observers was compared in terms of how well they correlated with human observer performance. Our results demonstrated that the spatial domain model observer correlated well with human observers across various dose levels, object contrast levels, and object sizes. The Fourier domain observer correlated well with human observers using FBP images, but overestimated the detection performance using IR images. PMID:27239086

Time-varying correlations in global real estate markets: A multivariate GARCH with spatial effects approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Huaying; Liu, Zhixue; Weng, Yingliang

2017-04-01

The present study applies the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) with spatial effects approach for the analysis of the time-varying conditional correlations and contagion effects among global real estate markets. A distinguishing feature of the proposed model is that it can simultaneously capture the spatial interactions and the dynamic conditional correlations compared with the traditional MGARCH models. Results reveal that the estimated dynamic conditional correlations have exhibited significant increases during the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, thereby suggesting contagion effects among global real estate markets. The analysis further indicates that the returns of the regional real estate markets that are in close geographic and economic proximities exhibit strong co-movement. In addition, evidence of significantly positive leverage effects in global real estate markets is also determined. The findings have significant implications on global portfolio diversification opportunities and risk management practices.

Penalized Weighted Least-Squares Approach to Sinogram Noise Reduction and Image Reconstruction for Low-Dose X-Ray Computed Tomography

PubMed Central

Wang, Jing; Li, Tianfang; Lu, Hongbing; Liang, Zhengrong

2006-01-01

Reconstructing low-dose X-ray CT (computed tomography) images is a noise problem. This work investigated a penalized weighted least-squares (PWLS) approach to address this problem in two dimensions, where the WLS considers first- and second-order noise moments and the penalty models signal spatial correlations. Three different implementations were studied for the PWLS minimization. One utilizes a MRF (Markov random field) Gibbs functional to consider spatial correlations among nearby detector bins and projection views in sinogram space and minimizes the PWLS cost function by iterative Gauss-Seidel algorithm. Another employs Karhunen-Loève (KL) transform to de-correlate data signals among nearby views and minimizes the PWLS adaptively to each KL component by analytical calculation, where the spatial correlation among nearby bins is modeled by the same Gibbs functional. The third one models the spatial correlations among image pixels in image domain also by a MRF Gibbs functional and minimizes the PWLS by iterative successive over-relaxation algorithm. In these three implementations, a quadratic functional regularization was chosen for the MRF model. Phantom experiments showed a comparable performance of these three PWLS-based methods in terms of suppressing noise-induced streak artifacts and preserving resolution in the reconstructed images. Computer simulations concurred with the phantom experiments in terms of noise-resolution tradeoff and detectability in low contrast environment. The KL-PWLS implementation may have the advantage in terms of computation for high-resolution dynamic low-dose CT imaging. PMID:17024831

The Schaake shuffle: A method for reconstructing space-time variability in forecasted precipitation and temperature fields

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, M.R.; Gangopadhyay, S.; Hay, L.; Rajagopalan, B.; Wilby, R.

2004-01-01

A number of statistical methods that are used to provide local-scale ensemble forecasts of precipitation and temperature do not contain realistic spatial covariability between neighboring stations or realistic temporal persistence for subsequent forecast lead times. To demonstrate this point, output from a global-scale numerical weather prediction model is used in a stepwise multiple linear regression approach to downscale precipitation and temperature to individual stations located in and around four study basins in the United States. Output from the forecast model is downscaled for lead times up to 14 days. Residuals in the regression equation are modeled stochastically to provide 100 ensemble forecasts. The precipitation and temperature ensembles from this approach have a poor representation of the spatial variability and temporal persistence. The spatial correlations for downscaled output are considerably lower than observed spatial correlations at short forecast lead times (e.g., less than 5 days) when there is high accuracy in the forecasts. At longer forecast lead times, the downscaled spatial correlations are close to zero. Similarly, the observed temporal persistence is only partly present at short forecast lead times. A method is presented for reordering the ensemble output in order to recover the space-time variability in precipitation and temperature fields. In this approach, the ensemble members for a given forecast day are ranked and matched with the rank of precipitation and temperature data from days randomly selected from similar dates in the historical record. The ensembles are then reordered to correspond to the original order of the selection of historical data. Using this approach, the observed intersite correlations, intervariable correlations, and the observed temporal persistence are almost entirely recovered. This reordering methodology also has applications for recovering the space-time variability in modeled streamflow. ?? 2004 American Meteorological Society.

Uncertainty Analysis of Downscaled CMIP5 Precipitation Data for Louisiana, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumi, S. J.; Tamanna, M.; Chivoiu, B.; Habib, E. H.

2014-12-01

The downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections dataset contains fine spatial resolution translations of climate projections over the contiguous United States developed using two downscaling techniques (monthly Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) and daily Bias Correction Constructed Analogs (BCCA)). The objective of this study is to assess the uncertainty of the CMIP5 downscaled general circulation models (GCM). We performed an analysis of the daily, monthly, seasonal and annual variability of precipitation downloaded from the Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections website for the state of Louisiana, USA at 0.125° x 0.125° resolution. A data set of daily gridded observations of precipitation of a rectangular boundary covering Louisiana is used to assess the validity of 21 downscaled GCMs for the 1950-1999 period. The following statistics are computed using the CMIP5 observed dataset with respect to the 21 models: the correlation coefficient, the bias, the normalized bias, the mean absolute error (MAE), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and the root mean square error (RMSE). A measure of variability simulated by each model is computed as the ratio of its standard deviation, in both space and time, to the corresponding standard deviation of the observation. The correlation and MAPE statistics are also computed for each of the nine climate divisions of Louisiana. Some of the patterns that we observed are: 1) Average annual precipitation rate shows similar spatial distribution for all the models within a range of 3.27 to 4.75 mm/day from Northwest to Southeast. 2) Standard deviation of summer (JJA) precipitation (mm/day) for the models maintains lower value than the observation whereas they have similar spatial patterns and range of values in winter (NDJ). 3) Correlation coefficients of annual precipitation of models against observation have a range of -0.48 to 0.36 with variable spatial distribution by model. 4) Most of the models show negative correlation coefficients in summer and positive in winter. 5) MAE shows similar spatial distribution for all the models within a range of 5.20 to 7.43 mm/day from Northwest to Southeast of Louisiana. 6) Highest values of correlation coefficients are found at seasonal scale within a range of 0.36 to 0.46.

A Spatial Poisson Hurdle Model for Exploring Geographic Variation in Emergency Department Visits

PubMed Central

Neelon, Brian; Ghosh, Pulak; Loebs, Patrick F.

2012-01-01

Summary We develop a spatial Poisson hurdle model to explore geographic variation in emergency department (ED) visits while accounting for zero inflation. The model consists of two components: a Bernoulli component that models the probability of any ED use (i.e., at least one ED visit per year), and a truncated Poisson component that models the number of ED visits given use. Together, these components address both the abundance of zeros and the right-skewed nature of the nonzero counts. The model has a hierarchical structure that incorporates patient- and area-level covariates, as well as spatially correlated random effects for each areal unit. Because regions with high rates of ED use are likely to have high expected counts among users, we model the spatial random effects via a bivariate conditionally autoregressive (CAR) prior, which introduces dependence between the components and provides spatial smoothing and sharing of information across neighboring regions. Using a simulation study, we show that modeling the between-component correlation reduces bias in parameter estimates. We adopt a Bayesian estimation approach, and the model can be fit using standard Bayesian software. We apply the model to a study of patient and neighborhood factors influencing emergency department use in Durham County, North Carolina. PMID:23543242

Rich structure in the correlation matrix spectra in non-equilibrium steady states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, Soham; Leyvraz, Francois; Monroy Castillero, Paulino; Seligman, Thomas H.

2017-01-01

It has been shown that, if a model displays long-range (power-law) spatial correlations, its equal-time correlation matrix will also have a power law tail in the distribution of its high-lying eigenvalues. The purpose of this paper is to show that the converse is generally incorrect: a power-law tail in the high-lying eigenvalues of the correlation matrix may exist even in the absence of equal-time power law correlations in the initial model. We may therefore view the study of the eigenvalue distribution of the correlation matrix as a more powerful tool than the study of spatial Correlations, one which may in fact uncover structure, that would otherwise not be apparent. Specifically, we show that in the Totally Asymmetric Simple Exclusion Process, whereas there are no clearly visible correlations in the steady state, the eigenvalues of its correlation matrix exhibit a rich structure which we describe in detail.

Rich structure in the correlation matrix spectra in non-equilibrium steady states.

PubMed

Biswas, Soham; Leyvraz, Francois; Monroy Castillero, Paulino; Seligman, Thomas H

2017-01-17

It has been shown that, if a model displays long-range (power-law) spatial correlations, its equal-time correlation matrix will also have a power law tail in the distribution of its high-lying eigenvalues. The purpose of this paper is to show that the converse is generally incorrect: a power-law tail in the high-lying eigenvalues of the correlation matrix may exist even in the absence of equal-time power law correlations in the initial model. We may therefore view the study of the eigenvalue distribution of the correlation matrix as a more powerful tool than the study of spatial Correlations, one which may in fact uncover structure, that would otherwise not be apparent. Specifically, we show that in the Totally Asymmetric Simple Exclusion Process, whereas there are no clearly visible correlations in the steady state, the eigenvalues of its correlation matrix exhibit a rich structure which we describe in detail.

New insights into the endophenotypic status of cognition in bipolar disorder: genetic modelling study of twins and siblings.

PubMed

Georgiades, Anna; Rijsdijk, Fruhling; Kane, Fergus; Rebollo-Mesa, Irene; Kalidindi, Sridevi; Schulze, Katja K; Stahl, Daniel; Walshe, Muriel; Sahakian, Barbara J; McDonald, Colm; Hall, Mei-Hua; Murray, Robin M; Kravariti, Eugenia

2016-06-01

Twin studies have lacked statistical power to apply advanced genetic modelling techniques to the search for cognitive endophenotypes for bipolar disorder. To quantify the shared genetic variability between bipolar disorder and cognitive measures. Structural equation modelling was performed on cognitive data collected from 331 twins/siblings of varying genetic relatedness, disease status and concordance for bipolar disorder. Using a parsimonious AE model, verbal episodic and spatial working memory showed statistically significant genetic correlations with bipolar disorder (rg = |0.23|-|0.27|), which lost statistical significance after covarying for affective symptoms. Using an ACE model, IQ and visual-spatial learning showed statistically significant genetic correlations with bipolar disorder (rg = |0.51|-|1.00|), which remained significant after covarying for affective symptoms. Verbal episodic and spatial working memory capture a modest fraction of the bipolar diathesis. IQ and visual-spatial learning may tap into genetic substrates of non-affective symptomatology in bipolar disorder. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2016.

Coexistence of species with different dispersal across landscapes: a critical role of spatial correlation in disturbance.

PubMed

Liao, Jinbao; Ying, Zhixia; Woolnough, Daelyn A; Miller, Adam D; Li, Zhenqing; Nijs, Ivan

2016-05-11

Disturbance is key to maintaining species diversity in plant communities. Although the effects of disturbance frequency and extent on species diversity have been studied, we do not yet have a mechanistic understanding of how these aspects of disturbance interact with spatial structure of disturbance to influence species diversity. Here we derive a novel pair approximation model to explore competitive outcomes in a two-species system subject to spatially correlated disturbance. Generally, spatial correlation in disturbance favoured long-range dispersers, while distance-limited dispersers were greatly suppressed. Interestingly, high levels of spatial aggregation of disturbance promoted long-term species coexistence that is not possible in the absence of disturbance, but only when the local disperser was intrinsically competitively superior. However, spatial correlation in disturbance led to different competitive outcomes, depending on the disturbed area. Concerning ecological conservation and management, we theoretically demonstrate that introducing a spatially correlated disturbance to the system or altering an existing disturbance regime can be a useful strategy either to control species invasion or to promote species coexistence. Disturbance pattern analysis may therefore provide new insights into biodiversity conservation. © 2016 The Author(s).

Parameter estimation for a cohesive sediment transport model by assimilating satellite observations in the Hangzhou Bay: Temporal variations and spatial distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Daosheng; Zhang, Jicai; He, Xianqiang; Chu, Dongdong; Lv, Xianqing; Wang, Ya Ping; Yang, Yang; Fan, Daidu; Gao, Shu

2018-01-01

Model parameters in the suspended cohesive sediment transport models are critical for the accurate simulation of suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs). Difficulties in estimating the model parameters still prevent numerical modeling of the sediment transport from achieving a high level of predictability. Based on a three-dimensional cohesive sediment transport model and its adjoint model, the satellite remote sensing data of SSCs during both spring tide and neap tide, retrieved from Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI), are assimilated to synchronously estimate four spatially and temporally varying parameters in the Hangzhou Bay in China, including settling velocity, resuspension rate, inflow open boundary conditions and initial conditions. After data assimilation, the model performance is significantly improved. Through several sensitivity experiments, the spatial and temporal variation tendencies of the estimated model parameters are verified to be robust and not affected by model settings. The pattern for the variations of the estimated parameters is analyzed and summarized. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated settling velocity are negatively correlated with current speed, which can be explained using the combination of flocculation process and Stokes' law. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated resuspension rate are also negatively correlated with current speed, which are related to the grain size of the seabed sediments under different current velocities. Besides, the estimated inflow open boundary conditions reach the local maximum values near the low water slack conditions and the estimated initial conditions are negatively correlated with water depth, which is consistent with the general understanding. The relationships between the estimated parameters and the hydrodynamic fields can be suggestive for improving the parameterization in cohesive sediment transport models.

Space-time modeling of soil moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zijuan; Mohanty, Binayak P.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2017-11-01

A physically derived space-time mathematical representation of the soil moisture field is carried out via the soil moisture balance equation driven by stochastic rainfall forcing. The model incorporates spatial diffusion and in its original version, it is shown to be unable to reproduce the relative fast decay in the spatial correlation functions observed in empirical data. This decay resulting from variations in local topography as well as in local soil and vegetation conditions is well reproduced via a jitter process acting multiplicatively over the space-time soil moisture field. The jitter is a multiplicative noise acting on the soil moisture dynamics with the objective to deflate its correlation structure at small spatial scales which are not embedded in the probabilistic structure of the rainfall process that drives the dynamics. These scales of order of several meters to several hundred meters are of great importance in ecohydrologic dynamics. Properties of space-time correlation functions and spectral densities of the model with jitter are explored analytically, and the influence of the jitter parameters, reflecting variabilities of soil moisture at different spatial and temporal scales, is investigated. A case study fitting the derived model to a soil moisture dataset is presented in detail.

Spatial probabilistic pulsatility model for enhancing photoplethysmographic imaging systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amelard, Robert; Clausi, David A.; Wong, Alexander

2016-11-01

Photoplethysmographic imaging (PPGI) is a widefield noncontact biophotonic technology able to remotely monitor cardiovascular function over anatomical areas. Although spatial context can provide insight into physiologically relevant sampling locations, existing PPGI systems rely on coarse spatial averaging with no anatomical priors for assessing arterial pulsatility. Here, we developed a continuous probabilistic pulsatility model for importance-weighted blood pulse waveform extraction. Using a data-driven approach, the model was constructed using a 23 participant sample with a large demographic variability (11/12 female/male, age 11 to 60 years, BMI 16.4 to 35.1 kg·m-2). Using time-synchronized ground-truth blood pulse waveforms, spatial correlation priors were computed and projected into a coaligned importance-weighted Cartesian space. A modified Parzen-Rosenblatt kernel density estimation method was used to compute the continuous resolution-agnostic probabilistic pulsatility model. The model identified locations that consistently exhibited pulsatility across the sample. Blood pulse waveform signals extracted with the model exhibited significantly stronger temporal correlation (W=35,p<0.01) and spectral SNR (W=31,p<0.01) compared to uniform spatial averaging. Heart rate estimation was in strong agreement with true heart rate [r2=0.9619, error (μ,σ)=(0.52,1.69) bpm].

Three dimensional simulation of spatial and temporal variability of stratospheric hydrogen chloride

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaye, Jack A.; Rood, Richard B.; Jackman, Charles H.; Allen, Dale J.; Larson, Edmund M.

1989-01-01

Spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric HCl columns are calculated for January 1979 using a three-dimensional chemistry-transport model designed to provide the best possible representation of stratospheric transport. Large spatial and temporal variability of the HCl columns is shown to be correlated with lower stratospheric potential vorticity and thus to be of dynamical origin. Systematic longitudinal structure is correlated with planetary wave structure. These results can help place spatially and temporally isolated column and profile measurements in a regional and/or global perspective.

Spatial regression analysis of traffic crashes in Seoul.

PubMed

Rhee, Kyoung-Ah; Kim, Joon-Ki; Lee, Young-ihn; Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F

2016-06-01

Traffic crashes can be spatially correlated events and the analysis of the distribution of traffic crash frequency requires evaluation of parameters that reflect spatial properties and correlation. Typically this spatial aspect of crash data is not used in everyday practice by planning agencies and this contributes to a gap between research and practice. A database of traffic crashes in Seoul, Korea, in 2010 was developed at the traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level with a number of GIS developed spatial variables. Practical spatial models using available software were estimated. The spatial error model was determined to be better than the spatial lag model and an ordinary least squares baseline regression. A geographically weighted regression model provided useful insights about localization of effects. The results found that an increased length of roads with speed limit below 30 km/h and a higher ratio of residents below age of 15 were correlated with lower traffic crash frequency, while a higher ratio of residents who moved to the TAZ, more vehicle-kilometers traveled, and a greater number of access points with speed limit difference between side roads and mainline above 30 km/h all increased the number of traffic crashes. This suggests, for example, that better control or design for merging lower speed roads with higher speed roads is important. A key result is that the length of bus-only center lanes had the largest effect on increasing traffic crashes. This is important as bus-only center lanes with bus stop islands have been increasingly used to improve transit times. Hence the potential negative safety impacts of such systems need to be studied further and mitigated through improved design of pedestrian access to center bus stop islands. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial Autocorrelation Approaches to Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression.

PubMed

Chen, Yanguang

2016-01-01

In geo-statistics, the Durbin-Watson test is frequently employed to detect the presence of residual serial correlation from least squares regression analyses. However, the Durbin-Watson statistic is only suitable for ordered time or spatial series. If the variables comprise cross-sectional data coming from spatial random sampling, the test will be ineffectual because the value of Durbin-Watson's statistic depends on the sequence of data points. This paper develops two new statistics for testing serial correlation of residuals from least squares regression based on spatial samples. By analogy with the new form of Moran's index, an autocorrelation coefficient is defined with a standardized residual vector and a normalized spatial weight matrix. Then by analogy with the Durbin-Watson statistic, two types of new serial correlation indices are constructed. As a case study, the two newly presented statistics are applied to a spatial sample of 29 China's regions. These results show that the new spatial autocorrelation models can be used to test the serial correlation of residuals from regression analysis. In practice, the new statistics can make up for the deficiencies of the Durbin-Watson test.

Can Retinal Ganglion Cell Dipoles Seed Iso-Orientation Domains in the Visual Cortex?

PubMed Central

Schottdorf, Manuel; Eglen, Stephen J.; Wolf, Fred; Keil, Wolfgang

2014-01-01

It has been argued that the emergence of roughly periodic orientation preference maps (OPMs) in the primary visual cortex (V1) of carnivores and primates can be explained by a so-called statistical connectivity model. This model assumes that input to V1 neurons is dominated by feed-forward projections originating from a small set of retinal ganglion cells (RGCs). The typical spacing between adjacent cortical orientation columns preferring the same orientation then arises via Moiré-Interference between hexagonal ON/OFF RGC mosaics. While this Moiré-Interference critically depends on long-range hexagonal order within the RGC mosaics, a recent statistical analysis of RGC receptive field positions found no evidence for such long-range positional order. Hexagonal order may be only one of several ways to obtain spatially repetitive OPMs in the statistical connectivity model. Here, we investigate a more general requirement on the spatial structure of RGC mosaics that can seed the emergence of spatially repetitive cortical OPMs, namely that angular correlations between so-called RGC dipoles exhibit a spatial structure similar to that of OPM autocorrelation functions. Both in cat beta cell mosaics as well as primate parasol receptive field mosaics we find that RGC dipole angles are spatially uncorrelated. To help assess the level of these correlations, we introduce a novel point process that generates mosaics with realistic nearest neighbor statistics and a tunable degree of spatial correlations of dipole angles. Using this process, we show that given the size of available data sets, the presence of even weak angular correlations in the data is very unlikely. We conclude that the layout of ON/OFF ganglion cell mosaics lacks the spatial structure necessary to seed iso-orientation domains in the primary visual cortex. PMID:24475081

Can retinal ganglion cell dipoles seed iso-orientation domains in the visual cortex?

PubMed

Schottdorf, Manuel; Eglen, Stephen J; Wolf, Fred; Keil, Wolfgang

2014-01-01

It has been argued that the emergence of roughly periodic orientation preference maps (OPMs) in the primary visual cortex (V1) of carnivores and primates can be explained by a so-called statistical connectivity model. This model assumes that input to V1 neurons is dominated by feed-forward projections originating from a small set of retinal ganglion cells (RGCs). The typical spacing between adjacent cortical orientation columns preferring the same orientation then arises via Moiré-Interference between hexagonal ON/OFF RGC mosaics. While this Moiré-Interference critically depends on long-range hexagonal order within the RGC mosaics, a recent statistical analysis of RGC receptive field positions found no evidence for such long-range positional order. Hexagonal order may be only one of several ways to obtain spatially repetitive OPMs in the statistical connectivity model. Here, we investigate a more general requirement on the spatial structure of RGC mosaics that can seed the emergence of spatially repetitive cortical OPMs, namely that angular correlations between so-called RGC dipoles exhibit a spatial structure similar to that of OPM autocorrelation functions. Both in cat beta cell mosaics as well as primate parasol receptive field mosaics we find that RGC dipole angles are spatially uncorrelated. To help assess the level of these correlations, we introduce a novel point process that generates mosaics with realistic nearest neighbor statistics and a tunable degree of spatial correlations of dipole angles. Using this process, we show that given the size of available data sets, the presence of even weak angular correlations in the data is very unlikely. We conclude that the layout of ON/OFF ganglion cell mosaics lacks the spatial structure necessary to seed iso-orientation domains in the primary visual cortex.

Bayesian spatial modelling and the significance of agricultural land use to scrub typhus infection in Taiwan.

PubMed

Wardrop, Nicola A; Kuo, Chi-Chien; Wang, Hsi-Chieh; Clements, Archie C A; Lee, Pei-Fen; Atkinson, Peter M

2013-11-01

Scrub typhus is transmitted by the larval stage of trombiculid mites. Environmental factors, including land cover and land use, are known to influence breeding and survival of trombiculid mites and, thus, also the spatial heterogeneity of scrub typhus risk. Here, a spatially autoregressive modelling framework was applied to scrub typhus incidence data from Taiwan, covering the period 2003 to 2011, to provide increased understanding of the spatial pattern of scrub typhus risk and the environmental and socioeconomic factors contributing to this pattern. A clear spatial pattern in scrub typhus incidence was observed within Taiwan, and incidence was found to be significantly correlated with several land cover classes, temperature, elevation, normalized difference vegetation index, rainfall, population density, average income and the proportion of the population that work in agriculture. The final multivariate regression model included statistically significant correlations between scrub typhus incidence and average income (negatively correlated), the proportion of land that contained mosaics of cropland and vegetation (positively correlated) and elevation (positively correlated). These results highlight the importance of land cover on scrub typhus incidence: mosaics of cropland and vegetation represent a transitional land cover type which can provide favourable habitats for rodents and, therefore, trombiculid mites. In Taiwan, these transitional land cover areas tend to occur in less populated and mountainous areas, following the frontier establishment and subsequent partial abandonment of agricultural cultivation, due to demographic and socioeconomic changes. Future land use policy decision-making should ensure that potential public health outcomes, such as modified risk of scrub typhus, are considered.

A spatially explicit approach to the study of socio-demographic inequality in the spatial distribution of trees across Boston neighborhoods

PubMed Central

Duncan, Dustin T.; Kawachi, Ichiro; Kum, Susan; Aldstadt, Jared; Piras, Gianfranco; Matthews, Stephen A.; Arbia, Giuseppe; Castro, Marcia C.; White, Kellee; Williams, David R.

2017-01-01

The racial/ethnic and income composition of neighborhoods often influences local amenities, including the potential spatial distribution of trees, which are important for population health and community wellbeing, particularly in urban areas. This ecological study used spatial analytical methods to assess the relationship between neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics (i.e. minority racial/ethnic composition and poverty) and tree density at the census tact level in Boston, Massachusetts (US). We examined spatial autocorrelation with the Global Moran’s I for all study variables and in the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression residuals as well as computed Spearman correlations non-adjusted and adjusted for spatial autocorrelation between socio-demographic characteristics and tree density. Next, we fit traditional regressions (i.e. OLS regression models) and spatial regressions (i.e. spatial simultaneous autoregressive models), as appropriate. We found significant positive spatial autocorrelation for all neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics (Global Moran’s I range from 0.24 to 0.86, all P=0.001), for tree density (Global Moran’s I=0.452, P=0.001), and in the OLS regression residuals (Global Moran’s I range from 0.32 to 0.38, all P<0.001). Therefore, we fit the spatial simultaneous autoregressive models. There was a negative correlation between neighborhood percent non-Hispanic Black and tree density (rS=−0.19; conventional P-value=0.016; spatially adjusted P-value=0.299) as well as a negative correlation between predominantly non-Hispanic Black (over 60% Black) neighborhoods and tree density (rS=−0.18; conventional P-value=0.019; spatially adjusted P-value=0.180). While the conventional OLS regression model found a marginally significant inverse relationship between Black neighborhoods and tree density, we found no statistically significant relationship between neighborhood socio-demographic composition and tree density in the spatial regression models. Methodologically, our study suggests the need to take into account spatial autocorrelation as findings/conclusions can change when the spatial autocorrelation is ignored. Substantively, our findings suggest no need for policy intervention vis-à-vis trees in Boston, though we hasten to add that replication studies, and more nuanced data on tree quality, age and diversity are needed. PMID:29354668

Experimental Effects and Individual Differences in Linear Mixed Models: Estimating the Relationship between Spatial, Object, and Attraction Effects in Visual Attention

PubMed Central

Kliegl, Reinhold; Wei, Ping; Dambacher, Michael; Yan, Ming; Zhou, Xiaolin

2011-01-01

Linear mixed models (LMMs) provide a still underused methodological perspective on combining experimental and individual-differences research. Here we illustrate this approach with two-rectangle cueing in visual attention (Egly et al., 1994). We replicated previous experimental cue-validity effects relating to a spatial shift of attention within an object (spatial effect), to attention switch between objects (object effect), and to the attraction of attention toward the display centroid (attraction effect), also taking into account the design-inherent imbalance of valid and other trials. We simultaneously estimated variance/covariance components of subject-related random effects for these spatial, object, and attraction effects in addition to their mean reaction times (RTs). The spatial effect showed a strong positive correlation with mean RT and a strong negative correlation with the attraction effect. The analysis of individual differences suggests that slow subjects engage attention more strongly at the cued location than fast subjects. We compare this joint LMM analysis of experimental effects and associated subject-related variances and correlations with two frequently used alternative statistical procedures. PMID:21833292

Spatial correlation in the ambient core noise field of a turbofan engine.

PubMed

Miles, Jeffrey Hilton

2012-06-01

An acoustic transfer function relating combustion noise and turbine exit noise in the presence of enclosed ambient core noise is investigated using a dynamic system model and an acoustic system model for the particular turbofan engine studied and for a range of operating conditions. Measurements of cross-spectra magnitude and phase between the combustor and turbine exit and auto-spectra at the turbine exit and combustor are used to show the presence of indirect and direct combustion noise over the frequency range of 0-400 Hz. The procedure used evaluates the ratio of direct to indirect combustion noise. The procedure used also evaluates the post-combustion residence time in the combustor which is a factor in the formation of thermal NO(x) and soot in this region. These measurements are masked by the ambient core noise sound field in this frequency range which is observable since the transducers are situated within an acoustic wavelength of one another. An ambient core noise field model based on one and two dimensional spatial correlation functions is used to replicate the spatially correlated response of the pair of transducers. The spatial correlation function increases measured attenuation due to destructive interference and masks the true attenuation of the turbine.

Modeling of blob-hole correlations in GPI edge turbulence data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myra, J. R.; Russell, D. A.; Zweben, S. J.

2017-10-01

Gas-puff imaging (GPI) observations made on NSTX have revealed two-point spatial correlation patterns in the plane perpendicular to the magnetic field. A common feature is the occurrence of dipole-like patterns with significant regions of negative correlation. In this work, we explore the possibility that these dipole patterns may be due to blob-hole pairs. Statistical methods are applied to determine the two-point spatial correlation that results from a model of blob-hole pair formation. It is shown that the model produces dipole correlation patterns that are qualitatively similar to the GPI data in many respects. Effects of the reference location (confined surfaces or scrape-off layer), a superimposed random background, hole velocity and lifetime, and background sheared flows are explored. The possibility of using the model to ascertain new information about edge turbulence is discussed. Work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science, Office of Fusion Energy Sciences under Award Number DE-FG02-02ER54678.

Task relevance modulates the behavioural and neural effects of sensory predictions

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl J.; Nobre, Anna C.

2017-01-01

The brain is thought to generate internal predictions to optimize behaviour. However, it is unclear whether predictions signalling is an automatic brain function or depends on task demands. Here, we manipulated the spatial/temporal predictability of visual targets, and the relevance of spatial/temporal information provided by auditory cues. We used magnetoencephalography (MEG) to measure participants’ brain activity during task performance. Task relevance modulated the influence of predictions on behaviour: spatial/temporal predictability improved spatial/temporal discrimination accuracy, but not vice versa. To explain these effects, we used behavioural responses to estimate subjective predictions under an ideal-observer model. Model-based time-series of predictions and prediction errors (PEs) were associated with dissociable neural responses: predictions correlated with cue-induced beta-band activity in auditory regions and alpha-band activity in visual regions, while stimulus-bound PEs correlated with gamma-band activity in posterior regions. Crucially, task relevance modulated these spectral correlates, suggesting that current goals influence PE and prediction signalling. PMID:29206225

A composite likelihood approach for spatially correlated survival data

PubMed Central

Paik, Jane; Ying, Zhiliang

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper is to provide a composite likelihood approach to handle spatially correlated survival data using pairwise joint distributions. With e-commerce data, a recent question of interest in marketing research has been to describe spatially clustered purchasing behavior and to assess whether geographic distance is the appropriate metric to describe purchasing dependence. We present a model for the dependence structure of time-to-event data subject to spatial dependence to characterize purchasing behavior from the motivating example from e-commerce data. We assume the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) distribution and then model the dependence parameter as a function of geographic and demographic pairwise distances. For estimation of the dependence parameters, we present pairwise composite likelihood equations. We prove that the resulting estimators exhibit key properties of consistency and asymptotic normality under certain regularity conditions in the increasing-domain framework of spatial asymptotic theory. PMID:24223450

A composite likelihood approach for spatially correlated survival data.

PubMed

Paik, Jane; Ying, Zhiliang

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper is to provide a composite likelihood approach to handle spatially correlated survival data using pairwise joint distributions. With e-commerce data, a recent question of interest in marketing research has been to describe spatially clustered purchasing behavior and to assess whether geographic distance is the appropriate metric to describe purchasing dependence. We present a model for the dependence structure of time-to-event data subject to spatial dependence to characterize purchasing behavior from the motivating example from e-commerce data. We assume the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) distribution and then model the dependence parameter as a function of geographic and demographic pairwise distances. For estimation of the dependence parameters, we present pairwise composite likelihood equations. We prove that the resulting estimators exhibit key properties of consistency and asymptotic normality under certain regularity conditions in the increasing-domain framework of spatial asymptotic theory.

Spatial variability of the Black Sea surface temperature from high resolution modeling and satellite measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizyuk, Artem; Senderov, Maxim; Korotaev, Gennady

2016-04-01

Large number of numerical ocean models were implemented for the Black Sea basin during last two decades. They reproduce rather similar structure of synoptical variability of the circulation. Since 00-s numerical studies of the mesoscale structure are carried out using high performance computing (HPC). With the growing capacity of computing resources it is now possible to reconstruct the Black Sea currents with spatial resolution of several hundreds meters. However, how realistic these results can be? In the proposed study an attempt is made to understand which spatial scales are reproduced by ocean model in the Black Sea. Simulations are made using parallel version of NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean). A two regional configurations with spatial resolutions 5 km and 2.5 km are described. Comparison of the SST from simulations with two spatial resolutions shows rather qualitative difference of the spatial structures. Results of high resolution simulation are compared also with satellite observations and observation-based products from Copernicus using spatial correlation and spectral analysis. Spatial scales of correlations functions for simulated and observed SST are rather close and differs much from satellite SST reanalysis. Evolution of spectral density for modelled SST and reanalysis showed agreed time periods of small scales intensification. Using of the spectral analysis for satellite measurements is complicated due to gaps. The research leading to this results has received funding from Russian Science Foundation (project № 15-17-20020)

Blob-hole correlation model for edge turbulence and comparisons with NSTX gas puff imaging data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Myra, J. R.; Zweben, S. J.; Russell, D. A.

We report that gas puff imaging (GPI) observations made in NSTX [Zweben S J, et al., 2017 Phys. Plasmas 24 102509] have revealed two-point spatial correlations of edge and scrape-off layer turbulence in the plane perpendicular to the magnetic field. A common feature is the occurrence of dipole-like patterns with significant regions of negative correlation. In this paper, we explore the possibility that these dipole patterns may be due to blob-hole pairs. Statistical methods are applied to determine the two-point spatial correlation that results from a model of blob-hole pair formation. It is shown that the model produces dipole correlationmore » patterns that are qualitatively similar to the GPI data in several respects. Effects of the reference location (confined surfaces or scrape-off layer), a superimposed random background, hole velocity and lifetime, and background sheared flows are explored and discussed with respect to experimental observations. Additional analysis of the experimental GPI dataset is performed to further test this blob-hole correlation model. A time delay two-point spatial correlation study did not reveal inward propagation of the negative correlation structures that were postulated to correspond to holes in the data nor did it suggest that the negative correlation structures are due to neutral shadowing. However, tracking of the highest and lowest values (extrema) of the normalized GPI fluctuations shows strong evidence for mean inward propagation of minima and outward propagation of maxima, in qualitative agreement with theoretical expectations. Finally, other properties of the experimentally observed extrema are discussed.« less

Blob-hole correlation model for edge turbulence and comparisons with NSTX gas puff imaging data

DOE PAGES

Myra, J. R.; Zweben, S. J.; Russell, D. A.

2018-05-15

We report that gas puff imaging (GPI) observations made in NSTX [Zweben S J, et al., 2017 Phys. Plasmas 24 102509] have revealed two-point spatial correlations of edge and scrape-off layer turbulence in the plane perpendicular to the magnetic field. A common feature is the occurrence of dipole-like patterns with significant regions of negative correlation. In this paper, we explore the possibility that these dipole patterns may be due to blob-hole pairs. Statistical methods are applied to determine the two-point spatial correlation that results from a model of blob-hole pair formation. It is shown that the model produces dipole correlationmore » patterns that are qualitatively similar to the GPI data in several respects. Effects of the reference location (confined surfaces or scrape-off layer), a superimposed random background, hole velocity and lifetime, and background sheared flows are explored and discussed with respect to experimental observations. Additional analysis of the experimental GPI dataset is performed to further test this blob-hole correlation model. A time delay two-point spatial correlation study did not reveal inward propagation of the negative correlation structures that were postulated to correspond to holes in the data nor did it suggest that the negative correlation structures are due to neutral shadowing. However, tracking of the highest and lowest values (extrema) of the normalized GPI fluctuations shows strong evidence for mean inward propagation of minima and outward propagation of maxima, in qualitative agreement with theoretical expectations. Finally, other properties of the experimentally observed extrema are discussed.« less

Langevin Dynamics with Spatial Correlations as a Model for Electron-Phonon Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamm, A.; Caro, M.; Caro, A.; Samolyuk, G.; Klintenberg, M.; Correa, A. A.

2018-05-01

Stochastic Langevin dynamics has been traditionally used as a tool to describe nonequilibrium processes. When utilized in systems with collective modes, traditional Langevin dynamics relaxes all modes indiscriminately, regardless of their wavelength. We propose a generalization of Langevin dynamics that can capture a differential coupling between collective modes and the bath, by introducing spatial correlations in the random forces. This allows modeling the electronic subsystem in a metal as a generalized Langevin bath endowed with a concept of locality, greatly improving the capabilities of the two-temperature model. The specific form proposed here for the spatial correlations produces a physical wave-vector and polarization dependency of the relaxation produced by the electron-phonon coupling in a solid. We show that the resulting model can be used for describing the path to equilibration of ions and electrons and also as a thermostat to sample the equilibrium canonical ensemble. By extension, the family of models presented here can be applied in general to any dense system, solids, alloys, and dense plasmas. As an example, we apply the model to study the nonequilibrium dynamics of an electron-ion two-temperature Ni crystal.

Extending Correlation Filter-Based Visual Tracking by Tree-Structured Ensemble and Spatial Windowing.

PubMed

Gundogdu, Erhan; Ozkan, Huseyin; Alatan, A Aydin

2017-11-01

Correlation filters have been successfully used in visual tracking due to their modeling power and computational efficiency. However, the state-of-the-art correlation filter-based (CFB) tracking algorithms tend to quickly discard the previous poses of the target, since they consider only a single filter in their models. On the contrary, our approach is to register multiple CFB trackers for previous poses and exploit the registered knowledge when an appearance change occurs. To this end, we propose a novel tracking algorithm [of complexity O(D) ] based on a large ensemble of CFB trackers. The ensemble [of size O(2 D ) ] is organized over a binary tree (depth D ), and learns the target appearance subspaces such that each constituent tracker becomes an expert of a certain appearance. During tracking, the proposed algorithm combines only the appearance-aware relevant experts to produce boosted tracking decisions. Additionally, we propose a versatile spatial windowing technique to enhance the individual expert trackers. For this purpose, spatial windows are learned for target objects as well as the correlation filters and then the windowed regions are processed for more robust correlations. In our extensive experiments on benchmark datasets, we achieve a substantial performance increase by using the proposed tracking algorithm together with the spatial windowing.

Assessing the role of spatial correlations during collective cell spreading

PubMed Central

Treloar, Katrina K.; Simpson, Matthew J.; Binder, Benjamin J.; McElwain, D. L. Sean; Baker, Ruth E.

2014-01-01

Spreading cell fronts are essential features of development, repair and disease processes. Many mathematical models used to describe the motion of cell fronts, such as Fisher's equation, invoke a mean–field assumption which implies that there is no spatial structure, such as cell clustering, present. Here, we examine the presence of spatial structure using a combination of in vitro circular barrier assays, discrete random walk simulations and pair correlation functions. In particular, we analyse discrete simulation data using pair correlation functions to show that spatial structure can form in a spreading population of cells either through sufficiently strong cell–to–cell adhesion or sufficiently rapid cell proliferation. We analyse images from a circular barrier assay describing the spreading of a population of MM127 melanoma cells using the same pair correlation functions. Our results indicate that the spreading melanoma cell populations remain very close to spatially uniform, suggesting that the strength of cell–to–cell adhesion and the rate of cell proliferation are both sufficiently small so as not to induce any spatial patterning in the spreading populations. PMID:25026987

[Spatial patterns and influence factors of specialization in tea cultivation based on geographically weighted regression model: A case study of Anxi County of Fujian Province, China].

PubMed

Shui, Wei; DU, Yong; Chen, Yi Ping; Jian, Xiao Mei; Fan, Bing Xiong

2017-04-18

Anxi County, specializing in tea cultivation, was taken as a case in this research. Pearson correlation analysis, ordinary least squares model (OLS) and geographically weighted regression model (GWR) were used to select four primary influence factors of specialization in tea cultivation (i.e., the average elevation, net income per capita, proportion of agricultural population, and the distance from roads) by analyzing the specialization degree of each town of Anxi County. Meanwhile, the spatial patterns of specialization in tea cultivation of Anxi County were evaluated. The results indicated that specialization in tea cultivation of Anxi County showed an obvious spatial auto-correlation, and a spatial pattern with "low-middle-high" circle structure, which was similar to Von Thünen's circle structure model, appeared from the county town to its surrounding region. Meanwhile, GWR (0.624) had a better fitting degree than OLS (0.595), and GWR could reasonably expound the spatial data. Contrary to the agricultural location theory of Von Thünen's model, which indicated that distance from market was a determination factor, the specialization degree of tea cultivation in Anxi was mainly decided by natural conditions of mountain area, instead of the social factors. Specialization degree of tea cultivation was positively correlated with the average elevation, net income per capita and the proportion of agricultural population, while a negative correlation was found between the distance from roads and specialization degree of tea cultivation. Coefficients of regression between the specialization degree of tea cultivation and two factors (i.e., the average elevation and net income per capita) showed a spatial pattern of higher level in the north direction and lower level in the south direction. On the contrary, the regression coefficients for the proportion of agricultural population increased from south to north of Anxi County. Furthermore, regression coefficient for the distance from roads showed a spatial pattern of higher level in the northeast direction and lower level in the southwest direction of Anxi County.

Frequency-Based Spatial Correlation Assessments of the Ares I Subscale Acoustic Model Test Firings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenny, R. Jeremy; Houston, J.

2012-01-01

The Marshall Space Flight Center has performed a series of test firings to simulate and understand the acoustic environments generated for the Ares I liftoff profiles. Part of the instrumentation package had special sensor groups to assess the acoustic field spatial correlation features for the various test configurations. The spatial correlation characteristics were evaluated for all of the test firings, inclusive of understanding the diffuse to propagating wave amplitude ratios, the acoustic wave decays, and the incident angle of propagating waves across the sensor groups. These parameters were evaluated across the measured frequency spectra and the associated uncertainties for each parameter were estimated.

Trees grow on money: urban tree canopy cover and environmental justice.

PubMed

Schwarz, Kirsten; Fragkias, Michail; Boone, Christopher G; Zhou, Weiqi; McHale, Melissa; Grove, J Morgan; O'Neil-Dunne, Jarlath; McFadden, Joseph P; Buckley, Geoffrey L; Childers, Dan; Ogden, Laura; Pincetl, Stephanie; Pataki, Diane; Whitmer, Ali; Cadenasso, Mary L

2015-01-01

This study examines the distributional equity of urban tree canopy (UTC) cover for Baltimore, MD, Los Angeles, CA, New York, NY, Philadelphia, PA, Raleigh, NC, Sacramento, CA, and Washington, D.C. using high spatial resolution land cover data and census data. Data are analyzed at the Census Block Group levels using Spearman's correlation, ordinary least squares regression (OLS), and a spatial autoregressive model (SAR). Across all cities there is a strong positive correlation between UTC cover and median household income. Negative correlations between race and UTC cover exist in bivariate models for some cities, but they are generally not observed using multivariate regressions that include additional variables on income, education, and housing age. SAR models result in higher r-square values compared to the OLS models across all cities, suggesting that spatial autocorrelation is an important feature of our data. Similarities among cities can be found based on shared characteristics of climate, race/ethnicity, and size. Our findings suggest that a suite of variables, including income, contribute to the distribution of UTC cover. These findings can help target simultaneous strategies for UTC goals and environmental justice concerns.

Spatial Autocorrelation Approaches to Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression

PubMed Central

Chen, Yanguang

2016-01-01

In geo-statistics, the Durbin-Watson test is frequently employed to detect the presence of residual serial correlation from least squares regression analyses. However, the Durbin-Watson statistic is only suitable for ordered time or spatial series. If the variables comprise cross-sectional data coming from spatial random sampling, the test will be ineffectual because the value of Durbin-Watson’s statistic depends on the sequence of data points. This paper develops two new statistics for testing serial correlation of residuals from least squares regression based on spatial samples. By analogy with the new form of Moran’s index, an autocorrelation coefficient is defined with a standardized residual vector and a normalized spatial weight matrix. Then by analogy with the Durbin-Watson statistic, two types of new serial correlation indices are constructed. As a case study, the two newly presented statistics are applied to a spatial sample of 29 China’s regions. These results show that the new spatial autocorrelation models can be used to test the serial correlation of residuals from regression analysis. In practice, the new statistics can make up for the deficiencies of the Durbin-Watson test. PMID:26800271

Space, race, and poverty: Spatial inequalities in walkable neighborhood amenities?

PubMed Central

Aldstadt, Jared; Whalen, John; White, Kellee; Castro, Marcia C.; Williams, David R.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND Multiple and varied benefits have been suggested for increased neighborhood walkability. However, spatial inequalities in neighborhood walkability likely exist and may be attributable, in part, to residential segregation. OBJECTIVE Utilizing a spatial demographic perspective, we evaluated potential spatial inequalities in walkable neighborhood amenities across census tracts in Boston, MA (US). METHODS The independent variables included minority racial/ethnic population percentages and percent of families in poverty. Walkable neighborhood amenities were assessed with a composite measure. Spatial autocorrelation in key study variables were first calculated with the Global Moran’s I statistic. Then, Spearman correlations between neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics and walkable neighborhood amenities were calculated as well as Spearman correlations accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We fit ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and spatial autoregressive models, when appropriate, as a final step. RESULTS Significant positive spatial autocorrelation was found in neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics (e.g. census tract percent Black), but not walkable neighborhood amenities or in the OLS regression residuals. Spearman correlations between neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics and walkable neighborhood amenities were not statistically significant, nor were neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics significantly associated with walkable neighborhood amenities in OLS regression models. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that there is residential segregation in Boston and that spatial inequalities do not necessarily show up using a composite measure. COMMENTS Future research in other geographic areas (including international contexts) and using different definitions of neighborhoods (including small-area definitions) should evaluate if spatial inequalities are found using composite measures but also should use measures of specific neighborhood amenities. PMID:29046612

Exploring the effects of photon correlations from thermal sources on bacterial photosynthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manrique, Pedro D.; Caycedo-Soler, Felipe; De Mendoza, Adriana; Rodríguez, Ferney; Quiroga, Luis; Johnson, Neil F.

Thermal light sources can produce photons with strong spatial correlations. We study the role that these correlations might potentially play in bacterial photosynthesis. Our findings show a relationship between the transversal distance between consecutive absorptions and the efficiency of the photosynthetic process. Furthermore, membranes where the clustering of core complexes (so-called RC-LH1) is high, display a range where the organism profits maximally from the spatial correlation of the incoming light. By contrast, no maximum is found for membranes with low core-core clustering. We employ a detailed membrane model with state-of-the-art empirical inputs. Our results suggest that the organization of the membrane's antenna complexes may be well-suited to the spatial correlations present in an natural light source. Future experiments will be needed to test this prediction.

Do hospitals respond to rivals' quality and efficiency? A spatial panel econometric analysis.

PubMed

Longo, Francesco; Siciliani, Luigi; Gravelle, Hugh; Santos, Rita

2017-09-01

We investigate whether hospitals in the English National Health Service change their quality or efficiency in response to changes in quality or efficiency of neighbouring hospitals. We first provide a theoretical model that predicts that a hospital will not respond to changes in the efficiency of its rivals but may change its quality or efficiency in response to changes in the quality of rivals, though the direction of the response is ambiguous. We use data on eight quality measures (including mortality, emergency readmissions, patient reported outcome, and patient satisfaction) and six efficiency measures (including bed occupancy, cancelled operations, and costs) for public hospitals between 2010/11 and 2013/14 to estimate both spatial cross-sectional and spatial fixed- and random-effects panel data models. We find that although quality and efficiency measures are unconditionally spatially correlated, the spatial regression models suggest that a hospital's quality or efficiency does not respond to its rivals' quality or efficiency, except for a hospital's overall mortality that is positively associated with that of its rivals. The results are robust to allowing for spatially correlated covariates and errors and to instrumenting rivals' quality and efficiency. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Short-Term Effects of Climatic Variables on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Mainland China, 2008–2013: A Multilevel Spatial Poisson Regression Model Accounting for Overdispersion

PubMed Central

Yang, Fang; Yang, Min; Hu, Yuehua; Zhang, Juying

2016-01-01

Background Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease. In China, many provinces have reported HFMD cases, especially the south and southwest provinces. Many studies have found a strong association between the incidence of HFMD and climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. However, few studies have analyzed cluster effects between various geographical units. Methods The nonlinear relationships and lag effects between weekly HFMD cases and climatic variables were estimated for the period of 2008–2013 using a polynomial distributed lag model. The extra-Poisson multilevel spatial polynomial model was used to model the exact relationship between weekly HFMD incidence and climatic variables after considering cluster effects, provincial correlated structure of HFMD incidence and overdispersion. The smoothing spline methods were used to detect threshold effects between climatic factors and HFMD incidence. Results The HFMD incidence spatial heterogeneity distributed among provinces, and the scale measurement of overdispersion was 548.077. After controlling for long-term trends, spatial heterogeneity and overdispersion, temperature was highly associated with HFMD incidence. Weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference approximate inverse “V” shape and “V” shape relationships associated with HFMD incidence. The lag effects for weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference were 3 weeks and 2 weeks. High spatial correlated HFMD incidence were detected in northern, central and southern province. Temperature can be used to explain most of variation of HFMD incidence in southern and northeastern provinces. After adjustment for temperature, eastern and Northern provinces still had high variation HFMD incidence. Conclusion We found a relatively strong association between weekly HFMD incidence and weekly average temperature. The association between the HFMD incidence and climatic variables spatial heterogeneity distributed across provinces. Future research should explore the risk factors that cause spatial correlated structure or high variation of HFMD incidence which can be explained by temperature. When analyzing association between HFMD incidence and climatic variables, spatial heterogeneity among provinces should be evaluated. Moreover, the extra-Poisson multilevel model was capable of modeling the association between overdispersion of HFMD incidence and climatic variables. PMID:26808311

Short-Term Effects of Climatic Variables on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Mainland China, 2008-2013: A Multilevel Spatial Poisson Regression Model Accounting for Overdispersion.

PubMed

Liao, Jiaqiang; Yu, Shicheng; Yang, Fang; Yang, Min; Hu, Yuehua; Zhang, Juying

2016-01-01

Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease. In China, many provinces have reported HFMD cases, especially the south and southwest provinces. Many studies have found a strong association between the incidence of HFMD and climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. However, few studies have analyzed cluster effects between various geographical units. The nonlinear relationships and lag effects between weekly HFMD cases and climatic variables were estimated for the period of 2008-2013 using a polynomial distributed lag model. The extra-Poisson multilevel spatial polynomial model was used to model the exact relationship between weekly HFMD incidence and climatic variables after considering cluster effects, provincial correlated structure of HFMD incidence and overdispersion. The smoothing spline methods were used to detect threshold effects between climatic factors and HFMD incidence. The HFMD incidence spatial heterogeneity distributed among provinces, and the scale measurement of overdispersion was 548.077. After controlling for long-term trends, spatial heterogeneity and overdispersion, temperature was highly associated with HFMD incidence. Weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference approximate inverse "V" shape and "V" shape relationships associated with HFMD incidence. The lag effects for weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference were 3 weeks and 2 weeks. High spatial correlated HFMD incidence were detected in northern, central and southern province. Temperature can be used to explain most of variation of HFMD incidence in southern and northeastern provinces. After adjustment for temperature, eastern and Northern provinces still had high variation HFMD incidence. We found a relatively strong association between weekly HFMD incidence and weekly average temperature. The association between the HFMD incidence and climatic variables spatial heterogeneity distributed across provinces. Future research should explore the risk factors that cause spatial correlated structure or high variation of HFMD incidence which can be explained by temperature. When analyzing association between HFMD incidence and climatic variables, spatial heterogeneity among provinces should be evaluated. Moreover, the extra-Poisson multilevel model was capable of modeling the association between overdispersion of HFMD incidence and climatic variables.

Performance of wind turbines in a turbulent atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sundar, R. M.; Sullivan, J. P.

1981-01-01

The effect of atmospheric turbulence on the power fluctuations of large wind turbines was studied. The significance of spatial non-uniformities of the wind is emphasized. The turbulent wind with correlation in time and space is simulated on the computer by Shinozukas method. The wind turbulence is modelled according to the Davenport spectrum with an exponential spatial correlation function. The rotor aerodynamics is modelled by simple blade element theory. Comparison of the spectrum of power output signal between 1-D and 3-D turbulence, shows the significant power fluctuations centered around the blade passage frequency.

Percolation of spatially constrained Erdős-Rényi networks with degree correlations.

PubMed

Schmeltzer, C; Soriano, J; Sokolov, I M; Rüdiger, S

2014-01-01

Motivated by experiments on activity in neuronal cultures [ J. Soriano, M. Rodríguez Martínez, T. Tlusty and E. Moses Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 105 13758 (2008)], we investigate the percolation transition and critical exponents of spatially embedded Erdős-Rényi networks with degree correlations. In our model networks, nodes are randomly distributed in a two-dimensional spatial domain, and the connection probability depends on Euclidian link length by a power law as well as on the degrees of linked nodes. Generally, spatial constraints lead to higher percolation thresholds in the sense that more links are needed to achieve global connectivity. However, degree correlations favor or do not favor percolation depending on the connectivity rules. We employ two construction methods to introduce degree correlations. In the first one, nodes stay homogeneously distributed and are connected via a distance- and degree-dependent probability. We observe that assortativity in the resulting network leads to a decrease of the percolation threshold. In the second construction methods, nodes are first spatially segregated depending on their degree and afterwards connected with a distance-dependent probability. In this segregated model, we find a threshold increase that accompanies the rising assortativity. Additionally, when the network is constructed in a disassortative way, we observe that this property has little effect on the percolation transition.

Model-based vision for space applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chaconas, Karen; Nashman, Marilyn; Lumia, Ronald

1992-01-01

This paper describes a method for tracking moving image features by combining spatial and temporal edge information with model based feature information. The algorithm updates the two-dimensional position of object features by correlating predicted model features with current image data. The results of the correlation process are used to compute an updated model. The algorithm makes use of a high temporal sampling rate with respect to spatial changes of the image features and operates in a real-time multiprocessing environment. Preliminary results demonstrate successful tracking for image feature velocities between 1.1 and 4.5 pixels every image frame. This work has applications for docking, assembly, retrieval of floating objects and a host of other space-related tasks.

Comparison of perceived and modelled geographical access to accident and emergency departments: a cross-sectional analysis from the Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Study.

PubMed

Fone, David L; Christie, Stephen; Lester, Nathan

2006-04-13

Assessment of the spatial accessibility of hospital accident and emergency departments as perceived by local residents has not previously been investigated. Perceived accessibility may affect where, when, and whether potential patients attend for treatment. Using data on 11,853 respondents to a population survey in Caerphilly county borough, Wales, UK, we present an analysis comparing the accessibility of accident and emergency departments as reported by local residents and drive-time to the nearest accident and emergency department modelled using a geographical information system (GIS). Median drive-times were significantly shorter in the lowest perceived access category and longer in the best perceived access category (p < 0.001). The perceived access and GIS modelled drive-time variables were positively correlated (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, r = 0.38, p < 0.01). The strongest correlation was found for respondents living in areas in which nearly all households had a car or van (r = 0.47, p < 0.01). Correlations were stronger among respondents reporting good access to public transport and among those reporting a recent accident and emergency attendance for injury treatment compared to other respondents. Correlation coefficients did not vary substantially by levels of household income. Drive-time, road distance and straight-line distance were highly inter-correlated and substituting road distance or straight-line distance as the GIS modelled spatial accessibility measure only marginally decreased the magnitude of the correlations between perceived and GIS modelled access. This study provides evidence that the accessibility of hospital-based health care services as perceived by local residents is related to measures of spatial accessibility modelled using GIS. For studies that aim to model geographical separation in a way that correlates well with the perception of local residents, there may be minimal advantage in using sophisticated measures. Straight-line distance, which can be calculated without GIS, may be as good as GIS-modelled drive-time or distance for this purpose. These findings will be of importance to health policy makers and local planners who seek to obtain local information on access to services through focussed assessments of residents' concerns over accessibility and GIS modelling.

Spatial Vertical Directionality and Correlation of Low-Frequency Ambient Noise in Deep Ocean Direct-Arrival Zones.

PubMed

Yang, Qiulong; Yang, Kunde; Cao, Ran; Duan, Shunli

2018-01-23

Wind-driven and distant shipping noise sources contribute to the total noise field in the deep ocean direct-arrival zones. Wind-driven and distant shipping noise sources may significantly and simultaneously affect the spatial characteristics of the total noise field to some extent. In this work, a ray approach and parabolic equation solution method were jointly utilized to model the low-frequency ambient noise field in a range-dependent deep ocean environment by considering their calculation accuracy and efficiency in near-field wind-driven and far-field distant shipping noise fields. The reanalysis databases of National Center of Environment Prediction (NCEP) and Volunteer Observation System (VOS) were used to model the ambient noise source intensity and distribution. Spatial vertical directionality and correlation were analyzed in three scenarios that correspond to three wind speed conditions. The noise field was dominated by distant shipping noise sources when the wind speed was less than 3 m/s, and then the spatial vertical directionality and vertical correlation of the total noise field were nearly consistent with those of distant shipping noise field. The total noise field was completely dominated by near field wind generated noise sources when the wind speed was greater than 12 m/s at 150 Hz, and then the spatial vertical correlation coefficient and directionality pattern of the total noise field was approximately consistent with that of the wind-driven noise field. The spatial characteristics of the total noise field for wind speeds between 3 m/s and 12 m/s were the weighted results of wind-driven and distant shipping noise fields. Furthermore, the spatial characteristics of low-frequency ambient noise field were compared with the classical Cron/Sherman deep water noise field coherence function. Simulation results with the described modeling method showed good agreement with the experimental measurement results based on the vertical line array deployed near the bottom in deep ocean direct-arrival zones.

Spatial Vertical Directionality and Correlation of Low-Frequency Ambient Noise in Deep Ocean Direct-Arrival Zones

PubMed Central

Yang, Qiulong; Yang, Kunde; Cao, Ran; Duan, Shunli

2018-01-01

Wind-driven and distant shipping noise sources contribute to the total noise field in the deep ocean direct-arrival zones. Wind-driven and distant shipping noise sources may significantly and simultaneously affect the spatial characteristics of the total noise field to some extent. In this work, a ray approach and parabolic equation solution method were jointly utilized to model the low-frequency ambient noise field in a range-dependent deep ocean environment by considering their calculation accuracy and efficiency in near-field wind-driven and far-field distant shipping noise fields. The reanalysis databases of National Center of Environment Prediction (NCEP) and Volunteer Observation System (VOS) were used to model the ambient noise source intensity and distribution. Spatial vertical directionality and correlation were analyzed in three scenarios that correspond to three wind speed conditions. The noise field was dominated by distant shipping noise sources when the wind speed was less than 3 m/s, and then the spatial vertical directionality and vertical correlation of the total noise field were nearly consistent with those of distant shipping noise field. The total noise field was completely dominated by near field wind generated noise sources when the wind speed was greater than 12 m/s at 150 Hz, and then the spatial vertical correlation coefficient and directionality pattern of the total noise field was approximately consistent with that of the wind-driven noise field. The spatial characteristics of the total noise field for wind speeds between 3 m/s and 12 m/s were the weighted results of wind-driven and distant shipping noise fields. Furthermore, the spatial characteristics of low-frequency ambient noise field were compared with the classical Cron/Sherman deep water noise field coherence function. Simulation results with the described modeling method showed good agreement with the experimental measurement results based on the vertical line array deployed near the bottom in deep ocean direct-arrival zones. PMID:29360793

Porous media flux sensitivity to pore-scale geostatistics: A bottom-up approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Palma, P. R.; Guyennon, N.; Heße, F.; Romano, E.

2017-04-01

Macroscopic properties of flow through porous media can be directly computed by solving the Navier-Stokes equations at the scales related to the actual flow processes, while considering the porous structures in an explicit way. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of the pore-scale spatial distribution on seepage velocity through numerical simulations of 3D fluid flow performed by the lattice Boltzmann method. To this end, we generate multiple random Gaussian fields whose spatial correlation follows an assigned semi-variogram function. The Exponential and Gaussian semi-variograms are chosen as extreme-cases of correlation for short distances and statistical properties of the resulting porous media (indicator field) are described using the Matèrn covariance model, with characteristic lengths of spatial autocorrelation (pore size) varying from 2% to 13% of the linear domain. To consider the sensitivity of the modeling results to the geostatistical representativeness of the domain as well as to the adopted resolution, porous media have been generated repetitively with re-initialized random seeds and three different resolutions have been tested for each resulting realization. The main difference among results is observed between the two adopted semi-variograms, indicating that the roughness (short distances autocorrelation) is the property mainly affecting the flux. However, computed seepage velocities show additionally a wide variability (about three orders of magnitude) for each semi-variogram model in relation to the assigned correlation length, corresponding to pore sizes. The spatial resolution affects more the results for short correlation lengths (i.e., small pore sizes), resulting in an increasing underestimation of the seepage velocity with the decreasing correlation length. On the other hand, results show an increasing uncertainty as the correlation length approaches the domain size.

Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence: A new approach to spatially model wildfire risk potential in central Chile.

PubMed

González, Cristián; Castillo, Miguel; García-Chevesich, Pablo; Barrios, Juan

2018-02-01

A spatial modeling was applied to Chilean wildfire occurrence, through the Dempster-Shafer's evidence theory and considering the 2006-2010 period for the Valparaiso Region (central Chile), a representative area for this experiment. Results indicate strong spatial correlation between documented wildfires and cumulative evidence maps, resulting in a powerful tool for future wildfire risk prevention programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Topological electronic liquids: Electronic physics of one dimension beyond the one spatial dimension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiegmann, P. B.

1999-06-01

There is a class of electronic liquids in dimensions greater than 1 that shows all essential properties of one-dimensional electronic physics. These are topological liquids-correlated electronic systems with a spectral flow. Compressible topological electronic liquids are superfluids. In this paper we present a study of a conventional model of a topological superfluid in two spatial dimensions. This model is thought to be relevant to a doped Mott insulator. We show how the spectral flow leads to the superfluid hydrodynamics and how the orthogonality catastrophe affects off-diagonal matrix elements. We also compute the major electronic correlation functions. Among them are the spectral function, the pair wave function, and various tunneling amplitudes. To compute correlation functions we develop a method of current algebra-an extension of the bosonization technique of one spatial dimension. In order to emphasize a similarity between electronic liquids in one dimension and topological liquids in dimensions greater than 1, we first review the Fröhlich-Peierls mechanism of ideal conductivity in one dimension and then extend the physics and the methods into two spatial dimensions.

Spatial correlation of auroral zone geomagnetic variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackel, B. J.; Davalos, A.

2016-12-01

Magnetic field perturbations in the auroral zone are produced by a combination of distant ionospheric and local ground induced currents. Spatial and temporal structure of these currents is scientifically interesting and can also have a significant influence on critical infrastructure.Ground-based magnetometer networks are an essential tool for studying these phenomena, with the existing complement of instruments in Canada providing extended local time coverage. In this study we examine the spatial correlation between magnetic field observations over a range of scale lengths. Principal component and canonical correlation analysis are used to quantify relationships between multiple sites. Results could be used to optimize network configurations, validate computational models, and improve methods for empirical interpolation.

A flexible cure rate model for spatially correlated survival data based on generalized extreme value distribution and Gaussian process priors.

PubMed

Li, Dan; Wang, Xia; Dey, Dipak K

2016-09-01

Our present work proposes a new survival model in a Bayesian context to analyze right-censored survival data for populations with a surviving fraction, assuming that the log failure time follows a generalized extreme value distribution. Many applications require a more flexible modeling of covariate information than a simple linear or parametric form for all covariate effects. It is also necessary to include the spatial variation in the model, since it is sometimes unexplained by the covariates considered in the analysis. Therefore, the nonlinear covariate effects and the spatial effects are incorporated into the systematic component of our model. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a natural framework for modeling potentially nonlinear relationship and have recently become extremely powerful in nonlinear regression. Our proposed model adopts a semiparametric Bayesian approach by imposing a GP prior on the nonlinear structure of continuous covariate. With the consideration of data availability and computational complexity, the conditionally autoregressive distribution is placed on the region-specific frailties to handle spatial correlation. The flexibility and gains of our proposed model are illustrated through analyses of simulated data examples as well as a dataset involving a colon cancer clinical trial from the state of Iowa. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A Patch Density Recommendation based on Convergence Studies for Vehicle Panel Vibration Response resulting from Excitation by a Diffuse Acoustic Field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Andrew; LaVerde, Bruce; Jones, Douglas; Towner, Robert; Hunt, Ron

2013-01-01

Fluid structural interaction problems that estimate panel vibration from an applied pressure field excitation are quite dependent on the spatial correlation of the pressure field. There is a danger of either over estimating a low frequency response or under predicting broad band panel response in the more modally dense bands if the pressure field spatial correlation is not accounted for adequately. Even when the analyst elects to use a fitted function for the spatial correlation an error may be introduced if the choice of patch density is not fine enough to represent the more continuous spatial correlation function throughout the intended frequency range of interest. Both qualitative and quantitative illustrations evaluating the adequacy of different patch density assumptions to approximate the fitted spatial correlation function are provided. The actual response of a typical vehicle panel system is then evaluated in a convergence study where the patch density assumptions are varied over the same finite element model. The convergence study results are presented illustrating the impact resulting from a poor choice of patch density. The fitted correlation function used in this study represents a Diffuse Acoustic Field (DAF) excitation of the panel to produce vibration response.

Panel data models with spatial correlation: Estimation theory and an empirical investigation of the United States wholesale gasoline industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapoor, Mudit

The first part of my dissertation considers the estimation of a panel data model with error components that are both spatially and time-wise correlated. The dissertation combines widely used model for spatial correlation (Cliff and Ord (1973, 1981)) with the classical error component panel data model. I introduce generalizations of the generalized moments (GM) procedure suggested in Kelejian and Prucha (1999) for estimating the spatial autoregressive parameter in case of a single cross section. I then use those estimators to define feasible generalized least squares (GLS) procedures for the regression parameters. I give formal large sample results concerning the consistency of the proposed GM procedures, as well as the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed feasible GLS procedures. The new estimators remain computationally feasible even in large samples. The second part of my dissertation employs a Cliff-Ord-type model to empirically estimate the nature and extent of price competition in the US wholesale gasoline industry. I use data on average weekly wholesale gasoline price for 289 terminals (distribution facilities) in the US. Data on demand factors, cost factors and market structure that affect price are also used. I consider two time periods, a high demand period (August 1999) and a low demand period (January 2000). I find a high level of competition in prices between neighboring terminals. In particular, price in one terminal is significantly and positively correlated to the price of its neighboring terminal. Moreover, I find this to be much higher during the low demand period, as compared to the high demand period. In contrast to previous work, I include for each terminal the characteristics of the marginal customer by controlling for demand factors in the neighboring location. I find these demand factors to be important during period of high demand and insignificant during the low demand period. Furthermore, I have also considered spatial correlation in unobserved factors that affect price. I find it to be high and significant only during the low demand period. Not correcting for it leads to incorrect inferences regarding exogenous explanatory variables.

Asymptotic correlation functions and FFLO signature for the one-dimensional attractive Hubbard model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Song; Jiang, Yuzhu; Yu, Yi-Cong; Batchelor, Murray T.; Guan, Xi-Wen

2018-04-01

We study the long-distance asymptotic behavior of various correlation functions for the one-dimensional (1D) attractive Hubbard model in a partially polarized phase through the Bethe ansatz and conformal field theory approaches. We particularly find the oscillating behavior of these correlation functions with spatial power-law decay, of which the pair (spin) correlation function oscillates with a frequency ΔkF (2 ΔkF). Here ΔkF = π (n↑ -n↓) is the mismatch in the Fermi surfaces of spin-up and spin-down particles. Consequently, the pair correlation function in momentum space has peaks at the mismatch k = ΔkF, which has been observed in recent numerical work on this model. These singular peaks in momentum space together with the spatial oscillation suggest an analog of the Fulde-Ferrell-Larkin-Ovchinnikov (FFLO) state in the 1D Hubbard model. The parameter β representing the lattice effect becomes prominent in critical exponents which determine the power-law decay of all correlation functions. We point out that the backscattering of unpaired fermions and bound pairs within their own Fermi points gives a microscopic origin of the FFLO pairing in 1D.

Spatial Copula Model for Imputing Traffic Flow Data from Remote Microwave Sensors.

PubMed

Ma, Xiaolei; Luan, Sen; Du, Bowen; Yu, Bin

2017-09-21

Issues of missing data have become increasingly serious with the rapid increase in usage of traffic sensors. Analyses of the Beijing ring expressway have showed that up to 50% of microwave sensors pose missing values. The imputation of missing traffic data must be urgently solved although a precise solution that cannot be easily achieved due to the significant number of missing portions. In this study, copula-based models are proposed for the spatial interpolation of traffic flow from remote traffic microwave sensors. Most existing interpolation methods only rely on covariance functions to depict spatial correlation and are unsuitable for coping with anomalies due to Gaussian consumption. Copula theory overcomes this issue and provides a connection between the correlation function and the marginal distribution function of traffic flow. To validate copula-based models, a comparison with three kriging methods is conducted. Results indicate that copula-based models outperform kriging methods, especially on roads with irregular traffic patterns. Copula-based models demonstrate significant potential to impute missing data in large-scale transportation networks.

Upscaling transport of a reacting solute through a peridocially converging-diverging channel at pre-asymptotic times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sund, Nicole L.; Bolster, Diogo; Dawson, Clint

2015-11-01

In this study we extend the Spatial Markov model, which has been successfully used to upscale conservative transport across a diverse range of porous media flows, to test if it can accurately upscale reactive transport, defined by a spatially heterogeneous first order degradation rate. We test the model in a well known highly simplified geometry, commonly considered as an idealized pore or fracture structure, a periodic channel with wavy boundaries. The edges of the flow domain have a layer through which there is no flow, but in which diffusion of a solute still occurs. Reactions are confined to this region. We demonstrate that the Spatial Markov model, an upscaled random walk model that enforces correlation between successive jumps, can reproduce breakthrough curves measured from microscale simulations that explicitly resolve all pertinent processes. We also demonstrate that a similar random walk model that does not enforce successive correlations is unable to reproduce all features of the measured breakthrough curves.

Cognitive Process Modeling of Spatial Ability: The Assembling Objects Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ivie, Jennifer L.; Embretson, Susan E.

2010-01-01

Spatial ability tasks appear on many intelligence and aptitude tests. Although the construct validity of spatial ability tests has often been studied through traditional correlational methods, such as factor analysis, less is known about the cognitive processes involved in solving test items. This study examines the cognitive processes involved in…

Empirical spatial econometric modelling of small scale neighbourhood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerkman, Linda

2012-07-01

The aim of the paper is to model small scale neighbourhood in a house price model by implementing the newest methodology in spatial econometrics. A common problem when modelling house prices is that in practice it is seldom possible to obtain all the desired variables. Especially variables capturing the small scale neighbourhood conditions are hard to find. If there are important explanatory variables missing from the model, the omitted variables are spatially autocorrelated and they are correlated with the explanatory variables included in the model, it can be shown that a spatial Durbin model is motivated. In the empirical application on new house price data from Helsinki in Finland, we find the motivation for a spatial Durbin model, we estimate the model and interpret the estimates for the summary measures of impacts. By the analysis we show that the model structure makes it possible to model and find small scale neighbourhood effects, when we know that they exist, but we are lacking proper variables to measure them.

Continuous Sub-daily Rainfall Simulation for Regional Flood Risk Assessment - Modelling of Spatio-temporal Correlation Structure of Extreme Precipitation in the Austrian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, J. L.; Nester, T.; Komma, J.; Bloeschl, G.

2017-12-01

Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations. The correct reproduction of observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional intensity-duration-frequency curves, and spatial and temporal correlations is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and frequency of the flood peaks, by reproducing antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events, and joint probability of flood waves at confluences. In this work, a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is first modeled on a station basis as a multivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space. The spatial and temporal correlation structures are imposed in the Normal space, allowing for a different temporal autocorrelation parameter for each station, and simultaneously ensuring the positive-definiteness of the correlation matrix of the mAr errors. The Normal rainfall is then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space, with parameters varying monthly according to a sinusoidal function, in order to adapt to the observed rainfall seasonality. One of the main differences with the original model is the simulation time-step, reduced from 24h to 6h. Due to a larger availability of daily rainfall data, as opposite to sub-daily (e.g. hourly), the parameters of the Gamma distributions are calibrated to reproduce simultaneously a series of daily rainfall characteristics (mean daily rainfall, standard deviations of daily rainfall, and 24h intensity-duration-frequency [IDF] curves), as well as other aggregated rainfall measures (mean annual rainfall, and monthly rainfall). The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is performed in a way that the catchment-averaged IDF curves aggregated at different temporal scales fit the measured ones. The rainfall model is used to generate 10.000 years of synthetic precipitation, fed into a rainfall-runoff model to derive the flood frequency in the Tirolean Alps in Austria. Given the number of generated events, the simulation framework is able to generate a large variety of rainfall patterns, as well as reproduce the variograms of relevant extreme rainfall events in the region of interest.

International Society for Terrain-Vehicle Systems European Conference (5th) Held in Budapest, Hungary on September 4-6, 1991: Proceedings, Volume 1

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-09-01

spatial rigid - body equations of motion . The predicted data was accurately correlated with the experimental data of scale model tests in the soil bin...models on hard level ground [1, 2] and on soft level ground [3]. For spatial motion on nonlevel ground a rigid - body mobility model was recently developed...Vehicles (1) Kinematics of the vehicle and coordinate systems A spatial motion of a tracked vehicle represented as a rigid body in a Euclidian 3-space

Trees Grow on Money: Urban Tree Canopy Cover and Environmental Justice

PubMed Central

Schwarz, Kirsten; Fragkias, Michail; Boone, Christopher G.; Zhou, Weiqi; McHale, Melissa; Grove, J. Morgan; O’Neil-Dunne, Jarlath; McFadden, Joseph P.; Buckley, Geoffrey L.; Childers, Dan; Ogden, Laura; Pincetl, Stephanie; Pataki, Diane; Whitmer, Ali; Cadenasso, Mary L.

2015-01-01

This study examines the distributional equity of urban tree canopy (UTC) cover for Baltimore, MD, Los Angeles, CA, New York, NY, Philadelphia, PA, Raleigh, NC, Sacramento, CA, and Washington, D.C. using high spatial resolution land cover data and census data. Data are analyzed at the Census Block Group levels using Spearman’s correlation, ordinary least squares regression (OLS), and a spatial autoregressive model (SAR). Across all cities there is a strong positive correlation between UTC cover and median household income. Negative correlations between race and UTC cover exist in bivariate models for some cities, but they are generally not observed using multivariate regressions that include additional variables on income, education, and housing age. SAR models result in higher r-square values compared to the OLS models across all cities, suggesting that spatial autocorrelation is an important feature of our data. Similarities among cities can be found based on shared characteristics of climate, race/ethnicity, and size. Our findings suggest that a suite of variables, including income, contribute to the distribution of UTC cover. These findings can help target simultaneous strategies for UTC goals and environmental justice concerns. PMID:25830303

Linking parasite populations in hosts to parasite populations in space through Taylor's law and the negative binomial distribution

PubMed Central

Poulin, Robert; Lagrue, Clément

2017-01-01

The spatial distribution of individuals of any species is a basic concern of ecology. The spatial distribution of parasites matters to control and conservation of parasites that affect human and nonhuman populations. This paper develops a quantitative theory to predict the spatial distribution of parasites based on the distribution of parasites in hosts and the spatial distribution of hosts. Four models are tested against observations of metazoan hosts and their parasites in littoral zones of four lakes in Otago, New Zealand. These models differ in two dichotomous assumptions, constituting a 2 × 2 theoretical design. One assumption specifies whether the variance function of the number of parasites per host individual is described by Taylor's law (TL) or the negative binomial distribution (NBD). The other assumption specifies whether the numbers of parasite individuals within each host in a square meter of habitat are independent or perfectly correlated among host individuals. We find empirically that the variance–mean relationship of the numbers of parasites per square meter is very well described by TL but is not well described by NBD. Two models that posit perfect correlation of the parasite loads of hosts in a square meter of habitat approximate observations much better than two models that posit independence of parasite loads of hosts in a square meter, regardless of whether the variance–mean relationship of parasites per host individual obeys TL or NBD. We infer that high local interhost correlations in parasite load strongly influence the spatial distribution of parasites. Local hotspots could influence control and conservation of parasites. PMID:27994156

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Swati, F. N. U.; Stein, Michael L.

Regional climate models (RCMs) are a standard tool for downscaling climate forecasts to finer spatial scales. The evaluation of RCMs against observational data is an important step in building confidence in the use of RCMs for future prediction. In addition to model performance in climatological means and marginal distributions, a model’s ability to capture spatio-temporal relationships is important. This study develops two approaches: (1) spatial correlation/variogram for a range of spatial lags, with total monthly precipitation and non-seasonal precipitation components used to assess the spatial variations of precipitation; and (2) spatio-temporal correlation for a wide range of distances, directions, andmore » time lags, with daily precipitation occurrence used to detect the dynamic features of precipitation. These measures of spatial and spatio-temporal dependence are applied to a high-resolution RCM run and to the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) AMIP II reanalysis data (NCEP-R2), which provides initial and lateral boundary conditions for the RCM. The RCM performs better than NCEP-R2 in capturing both the spatial variations of total and non-seasonal precipitation components and the spatio-temporal correlations of daily precipitation occurrences, which are related to dynamic behaviors of precipitating systems. The improvements are apparent not just at resolutions finer than that of NCEP-R2, but also when the RCM and observational data are aggregated to the resolution of NCEP-R2.« less

Spatial correlations, clustering and percolation-like transitions in homicide crimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alves, L. G. A.; Lenzi, E. K.; Mendes, R. S.; Ribeiro, H. V.

2015-07-01

The spatial dynamics of criminal activities has been recently studied through statistical physics methods; however, models and results have been focusing on local scales (city level) and much less is known about these patterns at larger scales, e.g. at a country level. Here we report on a characterization of the spatial dynamics of the homicide crimes along the Brazilian territory using data from all cities (˜5000) in a period of more than thirty years. Our results show that the spatial correlation function in the per capita homicides decays exponentially with the distance between cities and that the characteristic correlation length displays an acute increasing trend in the latest years. We also investigate the formation of spatial clusters of cities via a percolation-like analysis, where clustering of cities and a phase-transition-like behavior describing the size of the largest cluster as a function of a homicide threshold are observed. This transition-like behavior presents evolutive features characterized by an increasing in the homicide threshold (where the transitions occur) and by a decreasing in the transition magnitudes (length of the jumps in the cluster size). We believe that our work sheds new light on the spatial patterns of criminal activities at large scales, which may contribute for better political decisions and resources allocation as well as opens new possibilities for modeling criminal activities by setting up fundamental empirical patterns at large scales.

Observations and regional modeling of aerosol optical properties, speciation and size distribution over Northern Africa and western Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menut, Laurent; Siour, Guillaume; Mailler, Sylvain; Couvidat, Florian; Bessagnet, Bertrand

2016-10-01

The aerosol speciation and size distribution is modeled during the summer 2013 and over a large area encompassing Africa, Mediterranean and western Europe. The modeled aerosol is compared to available measurements such as the AERONET aerosol optical depth (AOD) and aerosol size distribution (ASD) and the EMEP network for surface concentrations of particulate matter PM2.5, PM10 and inorganic species (nitrate, sulfate and ammonium). The main goal of this study is to quantify the model ability to realistically model the speciation and size distribution of the aerosol. Results first showed that the long-range transport pathways are well reproduced and mainly constituted by mineral dust: spatial correlation is ≈ 0.9 for AOD and Ångström exponent, when temporal correlations show that the day-to-day variability is more difficult to reproduce. Over Europe, PM2.5 and PM10 have a mean temporal correlation of ≈ 0.4 but the lowest spatial correlation ( ≈ 0.25 and 0.62, respectively), showing that the fine particles are not well localized or transported. Being short-lived species, the uncertainties on meteorology and emissions induce these lowest scores. However, time series of PM2.5 with the speciation show a good agreement between model and measurements and are useful for discriminating the aerosol composition. Using a classification from the south (Africa) to the north (northern Europe), it is shown that mineral dust relative mass contribution decreases from 50 to 10 % when nitrate increases from 0 to 20 % and all other species, sulfate, sea salt, ammonium, elemental carbon, primary organic matter, are constant. The secondary organic aerosol contribution is between 10 and 20 % with a maximum at the latitude of the Mediterranean Sea (Spanish stations). For inorganic species, it is shown that nitrate, sulfate and ammonium have a mean temporal correlation of 0.25, 0.37 and 0.17, respectively. The spatial correlation is better (0.25, 0.5 and 0.87), showing that the mean values may be biased but the spatial localization of sulfate and ammonium is well reproduced. The size distribution is compared to the AERONET product and it is shown that the model fairly reproduces the main values for the fine and coarse mode. In particular, for the fine mode, the model overestimates the aerosol mass in Africa and underestimates it in Europe.

Novel probabilistic models of spatial genetic ancestry with applications to stratification correction in genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Bhaskar, Anand; Javanmard, Adel; Courtade, Thomas A; Tse, David

2017-03-15

Genetic variation in human populations is influenced by geographic ancestry due to spatial locality in historical mating and migration patterns. Spatial population structure in genetic datasets has been traditionally analyzed using either model-free algorithms, such as principal components analysis (PCA) and multidimensional scaling, or using explicit spatial probabilistic models of allele frequency evolution. We develop a general probabilistic model and an associated inference algorithm that unify the model-based and data-driven approaches to visualizing and inferring population structure. Our spatial inference algorithm can also be effectively applied to the problem of population stratification in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), where hidden population structure can create fictitious associations when population ancestry is correlated with both the genotype and the trait. Our algorithm Geographic Ancestry Positioning (GAP) relates local genetic distances between samples to their spatial distances, and can be used for visually discerning population structure as well as accurately inferring the spatial origin of individuals on a two-dimensional continuum. On both simulated and several real datasets from diverse human populations, GAP exhibits substantially lower error in reconstructing spatial ancestry coordinates compared to PCA. We also develop an association test that uses the ancestry coordinates inferred by GAP to accurately account for ancestry-induced correlations in GWAS. Based on simulations and analysis of a dataset of 10 metabolic traits measured in a Northern Finland cohort, which is known to exhibit significant population structure, we find that our method has superior power to current approaches. Our software is available at https://github.com/anand-bhaskar/gap . abhaskar@stanford.edu or ajavanma@usc.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Resource materials for a GIS spatial analysis course

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raines, Gary L.

2001-01-01

This report consists of materials prepared for a GIS spatial analysis course offered as part of the Geography curriculum at the University of Nevada, Reno and the University of California at Santa Barbara in the spring of 2000. The report is intended to share information with instructors preparing spatial-modeling training and scientists with advanced GIS expertise. The students taking this class had completed each universities GIS curriculum and had a foundation in statistics as part of a science major. This report is organized into chapters that contain the following: Slides used during lectures, Guidance on the use of Arcview, Introduction to filtering in Arcview, Conventional and spatial correlation in Arcview, Tools for fuzzification in Arcview, Data and instructions for creating using ArcSDM for simple weights-of-evidence, fuzzy logic, and neural network models for Carlin-type gold deposits in central Nevada, Reading list on spatial modeling, and Selected student spatial-modeling posters from the laboratory exercises.

Accounting for spatial correlation errors in the assimilation of GRACE into hydrological models through localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khaki, M.; Schumacher, M.; Forootan, E.; Kuhn, M.; Awange, J. L.; van Dijk, A. I. J. M.

2017-10-01

Assimilation of terrestrial water storage (TWS) information from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission can provide significant improvements in hydrological modelling. However, the rather coarse spatial resolution of GRACE TWS and its spatially correlated errors pose considerable challenges for achieving realistic assimilation results. Consequently, successful data assimilation depends on rigorous modelling of the full error covariance matrix of the GRACE TWS estimates, as well as realistic error behavior for hydrological model simulations. In this study, we assess the application of local analysis (LA) to maximize the contribution of GRACE TWS in hydrological data assimilation. For this, we assimilate GRACE TWS into the World-Wide Water Resources Assessment system (W3RA) over the Australian continent while applying LA and accounting for existing spatial correlations using the full error covariance matrix. GRACE TWS data is applied with different spatial resolutions including 1° to 5° grids, as well as basin averages. The ensemble-based sequential filtering technique of the Square Root Analysis (SQRA) is applied to assimilate TWS data into W3RA. For each spatial scale, the performance of the data assimilation is assessed through comparison with independent in-situ ground water and soil moisture observations. Overall, the results demonstrate that LA is able to stabilize the inversion process (within the implementation of the SQRA filter) leading to less errors for all spatial scales considered with an average RMSE improvement of 54% (e.g., 52.23 mm down to 26.80 mm) for all the cases with respect to groundwater in-situ measurements. Validating the assimilated results with groundwater observations indicates that LA leads to 13% better (in terms of RMSE) assimilation results compared to the cases with Gaussian errors assumptions. This highlights the great potential of LA and the use of the full error covariance matrix of GRACE TWS estimates for improved data assimilation results.

Hierarchical additive modeling of nonlinear association with spatial correlations--an application to relate alcohol outlet density and neighborhood assault rates.

PubMed

Yu, Qingzhao; Li, Bin; Scribner, Richard Allen

2009-06-30

Previous studies have suggested a link between alcohol outlets and assaults. In this paper, we explore the effects of alcohol availability on assaults at the census tract level over time. In addition, we use a natural experiment to check whether a sudden loss of alcohol outlets is associated with deeper decreasing in assault violence. Several features of the data raise statistical challenges: (1) the association between covariates (for example, the alcohol outlet density of each census tract) and the assault rates may be complex and therefore cannot be described using a linear model without covariates transformation, (2) the covariates may be highly correlated with each other, (3) there are a number of observations that have missing inputs, and (4) there is spatial association in assault rates at the census tract level. We propose a hierarchical additive model, where the nonlinear correlations and the complex interaction effects are modeled using the multiple additive regression trees and the residual spatial association in the assault rates that cannot be explained in the model are smoothed using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) method. We develop a two-stage algorithm that connects the nonparametric trees with CAR to look for important covariates associated with the assault rates, while taking into account the spatial association of assault rates in adjacent census tracts. The proposed method is applied to the Los Angeles assault data (1990-1999). To assess the efficiency of the method, the results are compared with those obtained from a hierarchical linear model. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Importance of spatial autocorrelation in modeling bird distributions at a continental scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bahn, V.; O'Connor, R.J.; Krohn, W.B.

2006-01-01

Spatial autocorrelation in species' distributions has been recognized as inflating the probability of a type I error in hypotheses tests, causing biases in variable selection, and violating the assumption of independence of error terms in models such as correlation or regression. However, it remains unclear whether these problems occur at all spatial resolutions and extents, and under which conditions spatially explicit modeling techniques are superior. Our goal was to determine whether spatial models were superior at large extents and across many different species. In addition, we investigated the importance of purely spatial effects in distribution patterns relative to the variation that could be explained through environmental conditions. We studied distribution patterns of 108 bird species in the conterminous United States using ten years of data from the Breeding Bird Survey. We compared the performance of spatially explicit regression models with non-spatial regression models using Akaike's information criterion. In addition, we partitioned the variance in species distributions into an environmental, a pure spatial and a shared component. The spatially-explicit conditional autoregressive regression models strongly outperformed the ordinary least squares regression models. In addition, partialling out the spatial component underlying the species' distributions showed that an average of 17% of the explained variation could be attributed to purely spatial effects independent of the spatial autocorrelation induced by the underlying environmental variables. We concluded that location in the range and neighborhood play an important role in the distribution of species. Spatially explicit models are expected to yield better predictions especially for mobile species such as birds, even in coarse-grained models with a large extent. ?? Ecography.

Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

DOE PAGES

Henley, Benjamin J.; Meehl, Gerald; Power, Scott B.; ...

2017-01-31

Accelerated warming and hiatus periods in the long-term rise of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) have, in recent decades, been associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Critically, decadal climate prediction relies on the skill of state-of-the-art climate models to reliably represent these low-frequency climate variations. We undertake a systematic evaluation of the simulation of the IPO in the suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models. We track the IPO in pre-industrial (control) and all-forcings (historical) experiments using the IPO tripole index (TPI). The TPI is explicitly aligned with the observed spatial pattern of the IPO, and circumventsmore » assumptions about the nature of global warming. We find that many models underestimate the ratio of decadal-to-total variance in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, the basin-wide spatial pattern of positive and negative phases of the IPO are simulated reasonably well, with spatial pattern correlation coefficients between observations and models spanning the range 0.4–0.8. Deficiencies are mainly in the extratropical Pacific. Models that better capture the spatial pattern of the IPO also tend to more realistically simulate the ratio of decadal to total variance. Of the 13% of model centuries that have a fractional bias in the decadal-to-total TPI variance of 0.2 or less, 84% also have a spatial pattern correlation coefficient with the observed pattern exceeding 0.5. This result is highly consistent across both IPO positive and negative phases. This is evidence that the IPO is related to one or more inherent dynamical mechanisms of the climate system.« less

Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henley, Benjamin J.; Meehl, Gerald; Power, Scott B.

Accelerated warming and hiatus periods in the long-term rise of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) have, in recent decades, been associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Critically, decadal climate prediction relies on the skill of state-of-the-art climate models to reliably represent these low-frequency climate variations. We undertake a systematic evaluation of the simulation of the IPO in the suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models. We track the IPO in pre-industrial (control) and all-forcings (historical) experiments using the IPO tripole index (TPI). The TPI is explicitly aligned with the observed spatial pattern of the IPO, and circumventsmore » assumptions about the nature of global warming. We find that many models underestimate the ratio of decadal-to-total variance in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, the basin-wide spatial pattern of positive and negative phases of the IPO are simulated reasonably well, with spatial pattern correlation coefficients between observations and models spanning the range 0.4–0.8. Deficiencies are mainly in the extratropical Pacific. Models that better capture the spatial pattern of the IPO also tend to more realistically simulate the ratio of decadal to total variance. Of the 13% of model centuries that have a fractional bias in the decadal-to-total TPI variance of 0.2 or less, 84% also have a spatial pattern correlation coefficient with the observed pattern exceeding 0.5. This result is highly consistent across both IPO positive and negative phases. This is evidence that the IPO is related to one or more inherent dynamical mechanisms of the climate system.« less

Exploring the spatial variability of soil properties in an Alfisol Catena

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rosemary, F.; Vitharana, U. W. A.; Indraratne, S. P.

Detailed digital soil maps showing the spatial heterogeneity of soil properties consistent with the landscape are required for site-specific management of plant nutrients, land use planning and process-based environmental modeling. We characterized the short-scale spatial heterogeneity of soil properties in an Alfisol catena in a tropical landscape of Sri Lanka. The impact of different land-uses (paddy, vegetable and un-cultivated) was examined to assess the impact of anthropogenic activities on the variability of soil properties at the catenary level. Conditioned Latin hypercube sampling was used to collect 58 geo-referenced topsoil samples (0–30 cm) from the study area. Soil samples were analyzedmore » for pH, electrical conductivity (EC), organic carbon (OC), cation exchange capacity (CEC) and texture. The spatial correlation between soil properties was analyzed by computing crossvariograms and subsequent fitting of theoretical model. Spatial distribution maps were developed using ordinary kriging. The range of soil properties, pH: 4.3–7.9; EC: 0.01–0.18 dS m –1 ; OC: 0.1–1.37%; CEC: 0.44– 11.51 cmol (+) kg –1 ; clay: 1.5–25% and sand: 59.1–84.4% and their coefficient of variations indicated a large variability in the study area. Electrical conductivity and pH showed a strong spatial correlation which was reflected by the cross-variogram close to the hull of the perfect correlation. Moreover, cross-variograms calculated for EC and Clay, CEC and OC, CEC and clay and CEC and pH indicated weak positive spatial correlation between these properties. Relative nugget effect (RNE) calculated from variograms showed strongly structured spatial variability for pH, EC and sand content (RNE < 25%) while CEC, organic carbon and clay content showed moderately structured spatial variability (25% < RNE < 75%). Spatial dependencies for examined soil properties ranged from 48 to 984 m. The mixed effects model fitting followed by Tukey's post-hoc test showed significant effect of land use on the spatial variability of EC. Our study revealed a structured variability of topsoil properties in the selected tropical Alfisol catena. Except for EC, observed variability was not modified by the land uses. Investigated soil properties showed distinct spatial structures at different scales and magnitudes of strength. Our results will be useful for digital soil mapping, site specific management of soil properties, developing appropriate land use plans and quantifying anthropogenic impacts on the soil system.« less

Improvement of Spatial Ability Using Innovative Tools: Alternative View Screen and Physical Model Rotator

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kinsey, Brad L.; Towle, Erick; Onyancha, Richard M.

2008-01-01

Spatial ability, which is positively correlated with retention and achievement in engineering, mathematics, and science disciplines, has been shown to improve over the course of a Computer-Aided Design course or through targeted training. However, which type of training provides the most beneficial improvements to spatial ability and whether other…

A review of spatio-temporal modelling of quadrat count data with application to striga occurrence in a pearl millet field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, Dale; van Lieshout, Marie-Colette; Payne, Bill; Stein, Alfred

This paper describes how spatial statistical techniques may be used to analyse weed occurrence in tropical fields. Quadrat counts of weed numbers are available over a series of years, as well as data on explanatory variables, and the aim is to smooth the data and assess spatial and temporal trends. We review a range of models for correlated count data. As an illustration, we consider data on striga infestation of a 60 × 24 m 2 millet field in Niger collected from 1985 until 1991, modelled by independent Poisson counts and a prior auto regression term enforcing spatial coherence. The smoothed fields show the presence of a seed bank, the estimated model parameters indicate a decay in the striga numbers over time, as well as a clear correlation with the amount of rainfall in 15 consecutive days following the sowing date. Such results could contribute to precision agriculture as a guide to more cost-effective striga control strategies.

Coarse-Grained Theory of Biological Charge Transfer with Spatially and Temporally Correlated Noise.

PubMed

Liu, Chaoren; Beratan, David N; Zhang, Peng

2016-04-21

System-environment interactions are essential in determining charge-transfer (CT) rates and mechanisms. We developed a computationally accessible method, suitable to simulate CT in flexible molecules (i.e., DNA) with hundreds of sites, where the system-environment interactions are explicitly treated with numerical noise modeling of time-dependent site energies and couplings. The properties of the noise are tunable, providing us a flexible tool to investigate the detailed effects of correlated thermal fluctuations on CT mechanisms. The noise is parametrizable by molecular simulation and quantum calculation results of specific molecular systems, giving us better molecular resolution in simulating the system-environment interactions than sampling fluctuations from generic spectral density functions. The spatially correlated thermal fluctuations among different sites are naturally built-in in our method but are not readily incorporated using approximate spectral densities. Our method has quantitative accuracy in systems with small redox potential differences (

A Spectral Method for Spatial Downscaling

PubMed Central

Reich, Brian J.; Chang, Howard H.; Foley, Kristen M.

2014-01-01

Summary Complex computer models play a crucial role in air quality research. These models are used to evaluate potential regulatory impacts of emission control strategies and to estimate air quality in areas without monitoring data. For both of these purposes, it is important to calibrate model output with monitoring data to adjust for model biases and improve spatial prediction. In this article, we propose a new spectral method to study and exploit complex relationships between model output and monitoring data. Spectral methods allow us to estimate the relationship between model output and monitoring data separately at different spatial scales, and to use model output for prediction only at the appropriate scales. The proposed method is computationally efficient and can be implemented using standard software. We apply the method to compare Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model output with ozone measurements in the United States in July 2005. We find that CMAQ captures large-scale spatial trends, but has low correlation with the monitoring data at small spatial scales. PMID:24965037

Probing density and spin correlations in two-dimensional Hubbard model with ultracold fermions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Chun Fai; Drewes, Jan Henning; Gall, Marcell; Wurz, Nicola; Cocchi, Eugenio; Miller, Luke; Pertot, Daniel; Brennecke, Ferdinand; Koehl, Michael

2017-04-01

Quantum gases of interacting fermionic atoms in optical lattices is a promising candidate to study strongly correlated quantum phases of the Hubbard model such as the Mott-insulator, spin-ordered phases, or in particular d-wave superconductivity. We experimentally realise the two-dimensional Hubbard model by loading a quantum degenerate Fermi gas of 40 K atoms into a three-dimensional optical lattice geometry. High-resolution absorption imaging in combination with radiofrequency spectroscopy is applied to spatially resolve the atomic distribution in a single 2D layer. We investigate in local measurements of spatial correlations in both the density and spin sector as a function of filling, temperature and interaction strength. In the density sector, we compare the local density fluctuations and the global thermodynamic quantities, and in the spin sector, we observe the onset of non-local spin correlation, signalling the emergence of the anti-ferromagnetic phase. We would report our recent experimental endeavours to investigate further down in temperature in the spin sector.

Assessment and statistical modeling of the relationship between remotely sensed aerosol optical depth and PM2.5 in the eastern United States.

PubMed

Paciorek, Christopher J; Liu, Yang

2012-05-01

Research in scientific, public health, and policy disciplines relating to the environment increasingly makes use of high-dimensional remote sensing and the output of numerical models in conjunction with traditional observations. Given the public health and resultant public policy implications of the potential health effects of particulate matter (PM*) air pollution, specifically fine PM with an aerodynamic diameter < or = 2.5 pm (PM2.5), there has been substantial recent interest in the use of remote-sensing information, in particular aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from satellites, to help characterize variability in ground-level PM2.5 concentrations in space and time. While the United States and some other developed countries have extensive PM monitoring networks, gaps in data across space and time necessarily occur; the hope is that remote sensing can help fill these gaps. In this report, we are particularly interested in using remote-sensing data to inform estimates of spatial patterns in ambient PM2.5 concentrations at monthly and longer time scales for use in epidemiologic analyses. However, we also analyzed daily data to better disentangle spatial and temporal relationships. For AOD to be helpful, it needs to add information beyond that available from the monitoring network. For analyses of chronic health effects, it needs to add information about the concentrations of long-term average PM2.5; therefore, filling the spatial gaps is key. Much recent evidence has shown that AOD is correlated with PM2.5 in the eastern United States, but the use of AOD in exposure analysis for epidemiologic work has been rare, in part because discrepancies necessarily exist between satellite-retrieved estimates of AOD, which is an atmospheric-column average, and ground-level PM2.5. In this report, we summarize the results of a number of empirical analyses and of the development of statistical models for the use of proxy information, in particular satellite AOD, in predicting PM2.5 concentrations in the eastern United States. We analyzed the spatiotemporal structure of the relationship between PM2.5 and AOD, first using simple correlations both before and after calibration based on meteorology, as well as large-scale spatial and temporal calibration to account for discrepancies between AOD and PM2.5. We then used both raw and calibrated AOD retrievals in statistical models to predict PM2.5 concentrations, accounting for AOD in two ways: primarily as a separate data source contributing a second likelihood to a Bayesian statistical model, as well as a data source on which we could directly regress. Previous consideration of satellite AOD has largely focused on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and multiangle imaging spectroradiometer (MISR) instruments. One contribution of our work is more extensive consideration of AOD derived from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite East Aerosol/Smoke Product (GOES GASP) AOD and its relationship with PM2.5. In addition to empirically assessing the spatiotemporal relationship between GASP AOD and PM2.5, we considered new statistical techniques to screen anomalous GOES reflectance measurements and account for background surface reflectance. In our statistical work, we developed a new model structure that allowed for more flexible modeling of the proxy discrepancy than previous statistical efforts have had, with a computationally efficient implementation. We also suggested a diagnostic for assessing the scales of the spatial relationship between the proxy and the spatial process of interest (e.g., PM2.5). In brief, we had little success in improving predictions in our eastern-United States domain for use in epidemiologic applications. We found positive correlations of AOD with PM2.5 over time, but less correlation for long-term averages over space, unless we used calibration that adjusted for large-scale discrepancy between AOD and PM2.5 (see sections 3, 4, and 5). Statistical models that combined AOD, PM2.5 observations, and land-use and meteorologic variables were highly predictive of PM2.5 observations held out of the modeling, but AOD added little information beyond that provided by the other sources (see sections 5 and 6). When we used PM2.5 data estimates from the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ) as the proxy instead of using AOD, we similarly found little improvement in predicting held-out observations of PM2.5, but when we regressed on CMAQ PM2.5 estimates, the predictions improved moderately in some cases. These results appeared to be caused in part by the fact that large-scale spatial patterns in PM2.5 could be predicted well by smoothing the monitor values, while small-scale spatial patterns in AOD appeared to weakly reflect the variation in PM2.5 inferred from the observations. Using a statistical model that allowed for potential proxy discrepancy at both large and small spatial scales was an important component of our modeling. In particular, when our models did not include a component to account for small-scale discrepancy, predictive performance decreased substantially. Even long-term averages of MISR AOD, considered the best, albeit most sparse, of the AOD products, were only weakly correlated with measured PM2.5 (see section 4). This might have been partly related to the fact that our analysis did not account for spatial variation in the vertical profile of the aerosol. Furthermore, we found evidence that some of the correlation between raw AOD and PM2.5 might have been a function of surface brightness related to land use, rather than having been driven by the detection of aerosol in the AOD retrieval algorithms (see sections 4 and 7). Difficulties in estimating the background surface reflectance in the retrieval algorithms likely explain this finding. With regard to GOES, we found moderate correlations of GASP AOD and PM2.5. The higher correlations of monthly and yearly averages after calibration reflected primarily the improved large-scale correlation, a necessary result of the calibration procedure (see section 3). While the results of this study's GOES reflectance screening and surface reflection correction appeared sensible, correlations of our proposed reflectance-based proxy with PM2.5 were no better than GASP AOD correlations with PM2.5 (see section 7). We had difficulty improving spatial prediction of monthly and yearly average PM2.5 using AOD in the eastern United States, which we attribute to the spatial discrepancy between AOD and measured PM2.5, particularly at smaller scales. This points to the importance of paying attention to the discrepancy structure of proxy information, both from remote-sensing and deterministic models. In particular, important statistical challenges arise in accounting for the discrepancy, given the difficulty in the face of sparse observations of distinguishing the discrepancy from the component of the proxy that is informative about the process of interest. Associations between adverse health outcomes and large-scale variation in PM2.5 (e.g., across regions) may be confounded by unmeasured spatial variation in factors such as diet. Therefore, one important goal was to use AOD to improve predictions of PM2.5 for use in epidemiologic analyses at small-to-moderate spatial scales (within urban areas and within regions). In addition, large-scale PM2.5 variation is well estimated from the monitoring data, at least in the United States. We found little evidence that current AOD products are helpful for improving prediction at small-to-moderate scales in the eastern United States and believe more evidence for the reliability of AOD as a proxy at such scales is needed before making use of AOD for PM2.5 prediction in epidemiologic contexts. While our results relied in part on relatively complicated statistical models, which may be sensitive to modeling assumptions, our exploratory correlation analyses (see sections 3 and 5) and relatively simple regression-style modeling of MISR AOD (see section 4) were consistent with the more complicated modeling results. When assessing the usefulness of AOD in the context of studying chronic health effects, we believe efforts need to focus on disentangling the temporal from the spatial correlations of AOD and PM2.5 and on understanding the spatial scale of correlation and of the discrepancy structure. While our results are discouraging, it is important to note that we attempted to make use of smaller-scale spatial variation in AOD to distinguish spatial variations of relatively small magnitude in long-term concentrations of ambient PM2.5. Our efforts pushed the limits of current technology in a spatial domain with relatively low PM2.5 levels and limited spatial variability. AOD may hold more promise in areas with higher aerosol levels, as the AOD signal would be stronger there relative to the background surface reflectance. Furthermore, for developing countries with high aerosol levels, it is difficult to build statistical models based on PM2.5 measurements and land-use covariates, so AOD may add more incremental information in those contexts. More generally, researchers in remote sensing are involved in ongoing efforts to improve AOD products and develop new approaches to using AOD, such as calibration with model-estimated vertical profiles and the use of speciation information in MISR AOD; these efforts warrant continued investigation of the usefulness of remotely sensed AOD for public health research.

Thermodynamically consistent Langevin dynamics with spatially correlated noise predicting frictionless regime and transient attraction effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majka, M.; Góra, P. F.

2016-10-01

While the origins of temporal correlations in Langevin dynamics have been thoroughly researched, the understanding of spatially correlated noise (SCN) is rather incomplete. In particular, very little is known about the relation between friction and SCN. In this article, starting from the microscopic, deterministic model, we derive the analytical formula for the spatial correlation function in the particle-bath interactions. This expression shows that SCN is the inherent component of binary mixtures, originating from the effective (entropic) interactions. Further, employing this spatial correlation function, we postulate the thermodynamically consistent Langevin equation driven by the Gaussian SCN and calculate the adequate fluctuation-dissipation relation. The thermodynamical consistency is achieved by introducing the spatially variant friction coefficient, which can be also derived analytically. This coefficient exhibits a number of intriguing properties, e.g., the singular behavior for certain types of interactions. Eventually, we apply this new theory to the system of two charged particles in the presence of counter-ions. Such particles interact via the screened-charge Yukawa potential and the inclusion of SCN leads to the emergence of the anomalous frictionless regime. In this regime the particles can experience active propulsion leading to the transient attraction effect. This effect suggests a nonequilibrium mechanism facilitating the molecular binding of the like-charged particles.

Modeling velocity space-time correlations in wind farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukassen, Laura J.; Stevens, Richard J. A. M.; Meneveau, Charles; Wilczek, Michael

2016-11-01

Turbulent fluctuations of wind velocities cause power-output fluctuations in wind farms. The statistics of velocity fluctuations can be described by velocity space-time correlations in the atmospheric boundary layer. In this context, it is important to derive simple physics-based models. The so-called Tennekes-Kraichnan random sweeping hypothesis states that small-scale velocity fluctuations are passively advected by large-scale velocity perturbations in a random fashion. In the present work, this hypothesis is used with an additional mean wind velocity to derive a model for the spatial and temporal decorrelation of velocities in wind farms. It turns out that in the framework of this model, space-time correlations are a convolution of the spatial correlation function with a temporal decorrelation kernel. In this presentation, first results on the comparison to large eddy simulations will be presented and the potential of the approach to characterize power output fluctuations of wind farms will be discussed. Acknowledgements: 'Fellowships for Young Energy Scientists' (YES!) of FOM, the US National Science Foundation Grant IIA 1243482, and support by the Max Planck Society.

Human Plague Risk: Spatial-Temporal Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pinzon, Jorge E.

2010-01-01

This chpater reviews the use of spatial-temporal models in identifying potential risks of plague outbreaks into the human population. Using earth observations by satellites remote sensing there has been a systematic analysis and mapping of the close coupling between the vectors of the disease and climate variability. The overall result is that incidence of plague is correlated to positive El Nino/Southem Oscillation (ENSO).

Using Structured Additive Regression Models to Estimate Risk Factors of Malaria: Analysis of 2010 Malawi Malaria Indicator Survey Data

PubMed Central

Chirombo, James; Lowe, Rachel; Kazembe, Lawrence

2014-01-01

Background After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions. Methods We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi. Results Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk. Conclusions The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities. PMID:24991915

Using structured additive regression models to estimate risk factors of malaria: analysis of 2010 Malawi malaria indicator survey data.

PubMed

Chirombo, James; Lowe, Rachel; Kazembe, Lawrence

2014-01-01

After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions. We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi. Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk. The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities.

Plasma fluctuations as Markovian noise.

PubMed

Li, B; Hazeltine, R D; Gentle, K W

2007-12-01

Noise theory is used to study the correlations of stationary Markovian fluctuations that are homogeneous and isotropic in space. The relaxation of the fluctuations is modeled by the diffusion equation. The spatial correlations of random fluctuations are modeled by the exponential decay. Based on these models, the temporal correlations of random fluctuations, such as the correlation function and the power spectrum, are calculated. We find that the diffusion process can give rise to the decay of the correlation function and a broad frequency spectrum of random fluctuations. We also find that the transport coefficients may be estimated by the correlation length and the correlation time. The theoretical results are compared with the observed plasma density fluctuations from the tokamak and helimak experiments.

a Data Field Method for Urban Remotely Sensed Imagery Classification Considering Spatial Correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Qin, K.; Zeng, C.; Zhang, E. B.; Yue, M. X.; Tong, X.

2016-06-01

Spatial correlation between pixels is important information for remotely sensed imagery classification. Data field method and spatial autocorrelation statistics have been utilized to describe and model spatial information of local pixels. The original data field method can represent the spatial interactions of neighbourhood pixels effectively. However, its focus on measuring the grey level change between the central pixel and the neighbourhood pixels results in exaggerating the contribution of the central pixel to the whole local window. Besides, Geary's C has also been proven to well characterise and qualify the spatial correlation between each pixel and its neighbourhood pixels. But the extracted object is badly delineated with the distracting salt-and-pepper effect of isolated misclassified pixels. To correct this defect, we introduce the data field method for filtering and noise limitation. Moreover, the original data field method is enhanced by considering each pixel in the window as the central pixel to compute statistical characteristics between it and its neighbourhood pixels. The last step employs a support vector machine (SVM) for the classification of multi-features (e.g. the spectral feature and spatial correlation feature). In order to validate the effectiveness of the developed method, experiments are conducted on different remotely sensed images containing multiple complex object classes inside. The results show that the developed method outperforms the traditional method in terms of classification accuracies.

A novel spatial performance metric for robust pattern optimization of distributed hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stisen, S.; Demirel, C.; Koch, J.

2017-12-01

Evaluation of performance is an integral part of model development and calibration as well as it is of paramount importance when communicating modelling results to stakeholders and the scientific community. There exists a comprehensive and well tested toolbox of metrics to assess temporal model performance in the hydrological modelling community. On the contrary, the experience to evaluate spatial performance is not corresponding to the grand availability of spatial observations readily available and to the sophisticate model codes simulating the spatial variability of complex hydrological processes. This study aims at making a contribution towards advancing spatial pattern oriented model evaluation for distributed hydrological models. This is achieved by introducing a novel spatial performance metric which provides robust pattern performance during model calibration. The promoted SPAtial EFficiency (spaef) metric reflects three equally weighted components: correlation, coefficient of variation and histogram overlap. This multi-component approach is necessary in order to adequately compare spatial patterns. spaef, its three components individually and two alternative spatial performance metrics, i.e. connectivity analysis and fractions skill score, are tested in a spatial pattern oriented model calibration of a catchment model in Denmark. The calibration is constrained by a remote sensing based spatial pattern of evapotranspiration and discharge timeseries at two stations. Our results stress that stand-alone metrics tend to fail to provide holistic pattern information to the optimizer which underlines the importance of multi-component metrics. The three spaef components are independent which allows them to complement each other in a meaningful way. This study promotes the use of bias insensitive metrics which allow comparing variables which are related but may differ in unit in order to optimally exploit spatial observations made available by remote sensing platforms. We see great potential of spaef across environmental disciplines dealing with spatially distributed modelling.

Node Survival in Networks under Correlated Attacks

PubMed Central

Hao, Yan; Armbruster, Dieter; Hütt, Marc-Thorsten

2015-01-01

We study the interplay between correlations, dynamics, and networks for repeated attacks on a socio-economic network. As a model system we consider an insurance scheme against disasters that randomly hit nodes, where a node in need receives support from its network neighbors. The model is motivated by gift giving among the Maasai called Osotua. Survival of nodes under different disaster scenarios (uncorrelated, spatially, temporally and spatio-temporally correlated) and for different network architectures are studied with agent-based numerical simulations. We find that the survival rate of a node depends dramatically on the type of correlation of the disasters: Spatially and spatio-temporally correlated disasters increase the survival rate; purely temporally correlated disasters decrease it. The type of correlation also leads to strong inequality among the surviving nodes. We introduce the concept of disaster masking to explain some of the results of our simulations. We also analyze the subsets of the networks that were activated to provide support after fifty years of random disasters. They show qualitative differences for the different disaster scenarios measured by path length, degree, clustering coefficient, and number of cycles. PMID:25932635

A method to estimate the effect of deformable image registration uncertainties on daily dose mapping

PubMed Central

Murphy, Martin J.; Salguero, Francisco J.; Siebers, Jeffrey V.; Staub, David; Vaman, Constantin

2012-01-01

Purpose: To develop a statistical sampling procedure for spatially-correlated uncertainties in deformable image registration and then use it to demonstrate their effect on daily dose mapping. Methods: Sequential daily CT studies are acquired to map anatomical variations prior to fractionated external beam radiotherapy. The CTs are deformably registered to the planning CT to obtain displacement vector fields (DVFs). The DVFs are used to accumulate the dose delivered each day onto the planning CT. Each DVF has spatially-correlated uncertainties associated with it. Principal components analysis (PCA) is applied to measured DVF error maps to produce decorrelated principal component modes of the errors. The modes are sampled independently and reconstructed to produce synthetic registration error maps. The synthetic error maps are convolved with dose mapped via deformable registration to model the resulting uncertainty in the dose mapping. The results are compared to the dose mapping uncertainty that would result from uncorrelated DVF errors that vary randomly from voxel to voxel. Results: The error sampling method is shown to produce synthetic DVF error maps that are statistically indistinguishable from the observed error maps. Spatially-correlated DVF uncertainties modeled by our procedure produce patterns of dose mapping error that are different from that due to randomly distributed uncertainties. Conclusions: Deformable image registration uncertainties have complex spatial distributions. The authors have developed and tested a method to decorrelate the spatial uncertainties and make statistical samples of highly correlated error maps. The sample error maps can be used to investigate the effect of DVF uncertainties on daily dose mapping via deformable image registration. An initial demonstration of this methodology shows that dose mapping uncertainties can be sensitive to spatial patterns in the DVF uncertainties. PMID:22320766

A new approach for SSVEP detection using PARAFAC and canonical correlation analysis.

PubMed

Tello, Richard; Pouryazdian, Saeed; Ferreira, Andre; Beheshti, Soosan; Krishnan, Sridhar; Bastos, Teodiano

2015-01-01

This paper presents a new way for automatic detection of SSVEPs through correlation analysis between tensor models. 3-way EEG tensor of channel × frequency × time is decomposed into constituting factor matrices using PARAFAC model. PARAFAC analysis of EEG tensor enables us to decompose multichannel EEG into constituting temporal, spectral and spatial signatures. SSVEPs characterized with localized spectral and spatial signatures are then detected exploiting a correlation analysis between extracted signatures of the EEG tensor and the corresponding simulated signatures of all target SSVEP signals. The SSVEP that has the highest correlation is selected as the intended target. Two flickers blinking at 8 and 13 Hz were used as visual stimuli and the detection was performed based on data packets of 1 second without overlapping. Five subjects participated in the experiments and the highest classification rate of 83.34% was achieved, leading to the Information Transfer Rate (ITR) of 21.01 bits/min.

Multivariate spatial models of excess crash frequency at area level: case of Costa Rica.

PubMed

Aguero-Valverde, Jonathan

2013-10-01

Recently, areal models of crash frequency have being used in the analysis of various area-wide factors affecting road crashes. On the other hand, disease mapping methods are commonly used in epidemiology to assess the relative risk of the population at different spatial units. A natural next step is to combine these two approaches to estimate the excess crash frequency at area level as a measure of absolute crash risk. Furthermore, multivariate spatial models of crash severity are explored in order to account for both frequency and severity of crashes and control for the spatial correlation frequently found in crash data. This paper aims to extent the concept of safety performance functions to be used in areal models of crash frequency. A multivariate spatial model is used for that purpose and compared to its univariate counterpart. Full Bayes hierarchical approach is used to estimate the models of crash frequency at canton level for Costa Rica. An intrinsic multivariate conditional autoregressive model is used for modeling spatial random effects. The results show that the multivariate spatial model performs better than its univariate counterpart in terms of the penalized goodness-of-fit measure Deviance Information Criteria. Additionally, the effects of the spatial smoothing due to the multivariate spatial random effects are evident in the estimation of excess equivalent property damage only crashes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating Function Approaches for Spatial Point Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Chong

Spatial point pattern data consist of locations of events that are often of interest in biological and ecological studies. Such data are commonly viewed as a realization from a stochastic process called spatial point process. To fit a parametric spatial point process model to such data, likelihood-based methods have been widely studied. However, while maximum likelihood estimation is often too computationally intensive for Cox and cluster processes, pairwise likelihood methods such as composite likelihood, Palm likelihood usually suffer from the loss of information due to the ignorance of correlation among pairs. For many types of correlated data other than spatial point processes, when likelihood-based approaches are not desirable, estimating functions have been widely used for model fitting. In this dissertation, we explore the estimating function approaches for fitting spatial point process models. These approaches, which are based on the asymptotic optimal estimating function theories, can be used to incorporate the correlation among data and yield more efficient estimators. We conducted a series of studies to demonstrate that these estmating function approaches are good alternatives to balance the trade-off between computation complexity and estimating efficiency. First, we propose a new estimating procedure that improves the efficiency of pairwise composite likelihood method in estimating clustering parameters. Our approach combines estimating functions derived from pairwise composite likeli-hood estimation and estimating functions that account for correlations among the pairwise contributions. Our method can be used to fit a variety of parametric spatial point process models and can yield more efficient estimators for the clustering parameters than pairwise composite likelihood estimation. We demonstrate its efficacy through a simulation study and an application to the longleaf pine data. Second, we further explore the quasi-likelihood approach on fitting second-order intensity function of spatial point processes. However, the original second-order quasi-likelihood is barely feasible due to the intense computation and high memory requirement needed to solve a large linear system. Motivated by the existence of geometric regular patterns in the stationary point processes, we find a lower dimension representation of the optimal weight function and propose a reduced second-order quasi-likelihood approach. Through a simulation study, we show that the proposed method not only demonstrates superior performance in fitting the clustering parameter but also merits in the relaxation of the constraint of the tuning parameter, H. Third, we studied the quasi-likelihood type estimating funciton that is optimal in a certain class of first-order estimating functions for estimating the regression parameter in spatial point process models. Then, by using a novel spectral representation, we construct an implementation that is computationally much more efficient and can be applied to more general setup than the original quasi-likelihood method.

Geostatistical modelling of household malaria in Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chirombo, J.; Lowe, R.; Kazembe, L.

2012-04-01

Malaria is one of the most important diseases in the world today, common in tropical and subtropical areas with sub-Saharan Africa being the region most burdened, including Malawi. This region has the right combination of biotic and abiotic components, including socioeconomic, climatic and environmental factors that sustain transmission of the disease. Differences in these conditions across the country consequently lead to spatial variation in risk of the disease. Analysis of nationwide survey data that takes into account this spatial variation is crucial in a resource constrained country like Malawi for targeted allocation of scare resources in the fight against malaria. Previous efforts to map malaria risk in Malawi have been based on limited data collected from small surveys. The Malaria Indicator Survey conducted in 2010 is the most comprehensive malaria survey carried out in Malawi and provides point referenced data for the study. The data has been shown to be spatially correlated. We use Bayesian logistic regression models with spatial correlation to model the relationship between malaria presence in children and covariates such as socioeconomic status of households and meteorological conditions. This spatial model is then used to assess how malaria varies spatially and a malaria risk map for Malawi is produced. By taking intervention measures into account, the developed model is used to assess whether they have an effect on the spatial distribution of the disease and Bayesian kriging is used to predict areas where malaria risk is more likely to increase. It is hoped that this study can help reveal areas that require more attention from the authorities in the continuing fight against malaria, particularly in children under the age of five.

Comparison of cosmology and seabed acoustics measurements using statistical inference from maximum entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knobles, David; Stotts, Steven; Sagers, Jason

2012-03-01

Why can one obtain from similar measurements a greater amount of information about cosmological parameters than seabed parameters in ocean waveguides? The cosmological measurements are in the form of a power spectrum constructed from spatial correlations of temperature fluctuations within the microwave background radiation. The seabed acoustic measurements are in the form of spatial correlations along the length of a spatial aperture. This study explores the above question from the perspective of posterior probability distributions obtained from maximizing a relative entropy functional. An answer is in part that the seabed in shallow ocean environments generally has large temporal and spatial inhomogeneities, whereas the early universe was a nearly homogeneous cosmological soup with small but important fluctuations. Acoustic propagation models used in shallow water acoustics generally do not capture spatial and temporal variability sufficiently well, which leads to model error dominating the statistical inference problem. This is not the case in cosmology. Further, the physics of the acoustic modes in cosmology is that of a standing wave with simple initial conditions, whereas for underwater acoustics it is a traveling wave in a strongly inhomogeneous bounded medium.

Linking Spatial Structure and Community-Level Biotic Interactions through Cooccurrence and Time Series Modeling of the Human Intestinal Microbiota.

PubMed

de Muinck, Eric J; Lundin, Knut E A; Trosvik, Pål

2017-01-01

The gastrointestinal (GI) microbiome is a densely populated ecosystem where dynamics are determined by interactions between microbial community members, as well as host factors. The spatial organization of this system is thought to be important in human health, yet this aspect of our resident microbiome is still poorly understood. In this study, we report significant spatial structure of the GI microbiota, and we identify general categories of spatial patterning in the distribution of microbial taxa along a healthy human GI tract. We further estimate the biotic interaction structure in the GI microbiota, both through time series and cooccurrence modeling of microbial community data derived from a large number of sequentially collected fecal samples. Comparison of these two approaches showed that species pairs involved in significant negative interactions had strong positive contemporaneous correlations and vice versa, while for species pairs without significant interactions, contemporaneous correlations were distributed around zero. We observed similar patterns when comparing these models to the spatial correlations between taxa identified in the adherent microbiota. This suggests that colocalization of microbial taxon pairs, and thus the spatial organization of the GI microbiota, is driven, at least in part, by direct or indirect biotic interactions. Thus, our study can provide a basis for an ecological interpretation of the biogeography of the human gut. IMPORTANCE The human gut microbiome is the subject of intense study due to its importance in health and disease. The majority of these studies have been based on the analysis of feces. However, little is known about how the microbial composition in fecal samples relates to the spatial distribution of microbial taxa along the gastrointestinal tract. By characterizing the microbial content both in intestinal tissue samples and in fecal samples obtained daily, we provide a conceptual framework for how the spatial structure relates to biotic interactions on the community level. We further describe general categories of spatial distribution patterns and identify taxa conforming to these categories. To our knowledge, this is the first study combining spatial and temporal analyses of the human gut microbiome. This type of analysis can be used for identifying candidate probiotics and designing strategies for clinical intervention.

Spatial Copula Model for Imputing Traffic Flow Data from Remote Microwave Sensors

PubMed Central

Ma, Xiaolei; Du, Bowen; Yu, Bin

2017-01-01

Issues of missing data have become increasingly serious with the rapid increase in usage of traffic sensors. Analyses of the Beijing ring expressway have showed that up to 50% of microwave sensors pose missing values. The imputation of missing traffic data must be urgently solved although a precise solution that cannot be easily achieved due to the significant number of missing portions. In this study, copula-based models are proposed for the spatial interpolation of traffic flow from remote traffic microwave sensors. Most existing interpolation methods only rely on covariance functions to depict spatial correlation and are unsuitable for coping with anomalies due to Gaussian consumption. Copula theory overcomes this issue and provides a connection between the correlation function and the marginal distribution function of traffic flow. To validate copula-based models, a comparison with three kriging methods is conducted. Results indicate that copula-based models outperform kriging methods, especially on roads with irregular traffic patterns. Copula-based models demonstrate significant potential to impute missing data in large-scale transportation networks. PMID:28934164

Representation of spatial cross correlations in large stochastic seasonal streamflow models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oliveira, G.C.; Kelman, J.; Pereira, M.V.F.

1988-05-01

Pereira et al. (1984) presented a special disaggregation procedure for generating cross-correlated monthly flows at many sites while using what are essentially univariate disaggregation models for the flows at each site. This was done by using a nonparametric procedure for constructing residual innovations or noise vectors with cross-correlated components. This note considers the theoretical underpinnings of that streamflow disaggregation procedure and a proposed variation and their ability to reproduce the observed historical cross correlations among concurrent monthly flows at nine Brazilian stations.

Soil Texture Often Exerts a Stronger Influence Than Precipitation on Mesoscale Soil Moisture Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Jingnuo; Ochsner, Tyson E.

2018-03-01

Soil moisture patterns are commonly thought to be dominated by land surface characteristics, such as soil texture, at small scales and by atmospheric processes, such as precipitation, at larger scales. However, a growing body of evidence challenges this conceptual model. We investigated the structural similarity and spatial correlations between mesoscale (˜1-100 km) soil moisture patterns and land surface and atmospheric factors along a 150 km transect using 4 km multisensor precipitation data and a cosmic-ray neutron rover, with a 400 m diameter footprint. The rover was used to measure soil moisture along the transect 18 times over 13 months. Spatial structures of soil moisture, soil texture (sand content), and antecedent precipitation index (API) were characterized using autocorrelation functions and fitted with exponential models. Relative importance of land surface characteristics and atmospheric processes were compared using correlation coefficients (r) between soil moisture and sand content or API. The correlation lengths of soil moisture, sand content, and API ranged from 12-32 km, 13-20 km, and 14-45 km, respectively. Soil moisture was more strongly correlated with sand content (r = -0.536 to -0.704) than with API for all but one date. Thus, land surface characteristics exhibit coherent spatial patterns at scales up to 20 km, and those patterns often exert a stronger influence than do precipitation patterns on mesoscale spatial patterns of soil moisture.

Spectral analysis of finite-time correlation matrices near equilibrium phase transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinayak; Prosen, T.; Buča, B.; Seligman, T. H.

2014-10-01

We study spectral densities for systems on lattices, which, at a phase transition display, power-law spatial correlations. Constructing the spatial correlation matrix we prove that its eigenvalue density shows a power law that can be derived from the spatial correlations. In practice time series are short in the sense that they are either not stationary over long time intervals or not available over long time intervals. Also we usually do not have time series for all variables available. We shall make numerical simulations on a two-dimensional Ising model with the usual Metropolis algorithm as time evolution. Using all spins on a grid with periodic boundary conditions we find a power law, that is, for large grids, compatible with the analytic result. We still find a power law even if we choose a fairly small subset of grid points at random. The exponents of the power laws will be smaller under such circumstances. For very short time series leading to singular correlation matrices we use a recently developed technique to lift the degeneracy at zero in the spectrum and find a significant signature of critical behavior even in this case as compared to high temperature results which tend to those of random matrix models.

Triple collocation-based estimation of spatially correlated observation error covariance in remote sensing soil moisture data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Kai; Shu, Hong; Nie, Lei; Jiao, Zhenhang

2018-01-01

Spatially correlated errors are typically ignored in data assimilation, thus degenerating the observation error covariance R to a diagonal matrix. We argue that a nondiagonal R carries more observation information making assimilation results more accurate. A method, denoted TC_Cov, was proposed for soil moisture data assimilation to estimate spatially correlated observation error covariance based on triple collocation (TC). Assimilation experiments were carried out to test the performance of TC_Cov. AMSR-E soil moisture was assimilated with a diagonal R matrix computed using the TC and assimilated using a nondiagonal R matrix, as estimated by proposed TC_Cov. The ensemble Kalman filter was considered as the assimilation method. Our assimilation results were validated against climate change initiative data and ground-based soil moisture measurements using the Pearson correlation coefficient and unbiased root mean square difference metrics. These experiments confirmed that deterioration of diagonal R assimilation results occurred when model simulation is more accurate than observation data. Furthermore, nondiagonal R achieved higher correlation coefficient and lower ubRMSD values over diagonal R in experiments and demonstrated the effectiveness of TC_Cov to estimate richly structuralized R in data assimilation. In sum, compared with diagonal R, nondiagonal R may relieve the detrimental effects of assimilation when simulated model results outperform observation data.

Spatial patterns and broad-scale weather cues of beech mast seeding in Europe.

PubMed

Vacchiano, Giorgio; Hacket-Pain, Andrew; Turco, Marco; Motta, Renzo; Maringer, Janet; Conedera, Marco; Drobyshev, Igor; Ascoli, Davide

2017-07-01

Mast seeding is a crucial population process in many tree species, but its spatio-temporal patterns and drivers at the continental scale remain unknown . Using a large dataset (8000 masting observations across Europe for years 1950-2014) we analysed the spatial pattern of masting across the entire geographical range of European beech, how it is influenced by precipitation, temperature and drought, and the temporal and spatial stability of masting-weather correlations. Beech masting exhibited a general distance-dependent synchronicity and a pattern structured in three broad geographical groups consistent with continental climate regimes. Spearman's correlations and logistic regression revealed a general pattern of beech masting correlating negatively with temperature in the summer 2 yr before masting, and positively with summer temperature 1 yr before masting (i.e. 2T model). The temperature difference between the two previous summers (DeltaT model) was also a good predictor. Moving correlation analysis applied to the longest eight chronologies (74-114 yr) revealed stable correlations between temperature and masting, confirming consistency in weather cues across space and time. These results confirm widespread dependency of masting on temperature and lend robustness to the attempts to reconstruct and predict mast years using temperature data. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Spectral statistics of random geometric graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettmann, C. P.; Georgiou, O.; Knight, G.

2017-04-01

We use random matrix theory to study the spectrum of random geometric graphs, a fundamental model of spatial networks. Considering ensembles of random geometric graphs we look at short-range correlations in the level spacings of the spectrum via the nearest-neighbour and next-nearest-neighbour spacing distribution and long-range correlations via the spectral rigidity Δ3 statistic. These correlations in the level spacings give information about localisation of eigenvectors, level of community structure and the level of randomness within the networks. We find a parameter-dependent transition between Poisson and Gaussian orthogonal ensemble statistics. That is the spectral statistics of spatial random geometric graphs fits the universality of random matrix theory found in other models such as Erdős-Rényi, Barabási-Albert and Watts-Strogatz random graphs.

Factors Related to Spatial Patterns of Rural Land Fragmentation in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjelland, Michael E.; Kreuter, Urs P.; Clendenin, George A.; Wilkins, R. Neal; Wu, X. Ben; Afanador, Edith Gonzalez; Grant, William E.

2007-08-01

Fragmentation of family-owned farms and ranches has been identified as the greatest single threat to wildlife habitat, water supply, and the long-term viability of agriculture in Texas. However, an integrative framework for insights into the pathways of land use change has been lacking. The specific objectives of the study are to test the hypotheses that the nonagricultural value (NAV) of rural land is a reliable indicator of trends in land fragmentation and that NAV in Texas is spatially correlated with population density, and to explore the idea that recent changes in property size patterns are better represented by a categorical model than by one that reflects incremental changes. We propose that the State-and-Transition model, developed to describe the dynamics of semi-arid ecosystems, provides an appropriate conceptual framework for characterizing categorical shifts in rural property patterns. Results suggest that changes in population density are spatially correlated with NAV and farm size, and that rural property size is spatially correlated with changes in NAV. With increasing NAV, the proportion of large properties tends to decrease while the area represented by small properties tends to increase. Although a correlation exists between NAV and population density, it is the trend in NAV that appears to be a stronger predictor of land fragmentation. The empirical relationships established herein, viewed within the conceptual framework of the State-and-Transition model, can provide a useful tool for evaluating land use policies for maintaining critical ecosystem services delivered from privately owned land in private land states, such as Texas.

Assessing spatial coupling in complex population dynamics using mutual prediction and continuity statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.M.; Moniz, L.; Nichols, J.D.; Pecora, L.M.; Cooch, E.

2005-01-01

A number of important questions in ecology involve the possibility of interactions or ?coupling? among potential components of ecological systems. The basic question of whether two components are coupled (exhibit dynamical interdependence) is relevant to investigations of movement of animals over space, population regulation, food webs and trophic interactions, and is also useful in the design of monitoring programs. For example, in spatially extended systems, coupling among populations in different locations implies the existence of redundant information in the system and the possibility of exploiting this redundancy in the development of spatial sampling designs. One approach to the identification of coupling involves study of the purported mechanisms linking system components. Another approach is based on time series of two potential components of the same system and, in previous ecological work, has relied on linear cross-correlation analysis. Here we present two different attractor-based approaches, continuity and mutual prediction, for determining the degree to which two population time series (e.g., at different spatial locations) are coupled. Both approaches are demonstrated on a one-dimensional predator?prey model system exhibiting complex dynamics. Of particular interest is the spatial asymmetry introduced into the model as linearly declining resource for the prey over the domain of the spatial coordinate. Results from these approaches are then compared to the more standard cross-correlation analysis. In contrast to cross-correlation, both continuity and mutual prediction are clearly able to discern the asymmetry in the flow of information through this system.

Spatial distribution of psychotic disorders in an urban area of France: an ecological study.

PubMed

Pignon, Baptiste; Schürhoff, Franck; Baudin, Grégoire; Ferchiou, Aziz; Richard, Jean-Romain; Saba, Ghassen; Leboyer, Marion; Kirkbride, James B; Szöke, Andrei

2016-05-18

Previous analyses of neighbourhood variations of non-affective psychotic disorders (NAPD) have focused mainly on incidence. However, prevalence studies provide important insights on factors associated with disease evolution as well as for healthcare resource allocation. This study aimed to investigate the distribution of prevalent NAPD cases in an urban area in France. The number of cases in each neighbourhood was modelled as a function of potential confounders and ecological variables, namely: migrant density, economic deprivation and social fragmentation. This was modelled using statistical models of increasing complexity: frequentist models (using Poisson and negative binomial regressions), and several Bayesian models. For each model, assumptions validity were checked and compared as to how this fitted to the data, in order to test for possible spatial variation in prevalence. Data showed significant overdispersion (invalidating the Poisson regression model) and residual autocorrelation (suggesting the need to use Bayesian models). The best Bayesian model was Leroux's model (i.e. a model with both strong correlation between neighbouring areas and weaker correlation between areas further apart), with economic deprivation as an explanatory variable (OR = 1.13, 95% CI [1.02-1.25]). In comparison with frequentist methods, the Bayesian model showed a better fit. The number of cases showed non-random spatial distribution and was linked to economic deprivation.

Combining correlative and mechanistic habitat suitability models to improve ecological compensation.

PubMed

Meineri, Eric; Deville, Anne-Sophie; Grémillet, David; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Béchet, Arnaud

2015-02-01

Only a few studies have shown positive impacts of ecological compensation on species dynamics affected by human activities. We argue that this is due to inappropriate methods used to forecast required compensation in environmental impact assessments. These assessments are mostly descriptive and only valid at limited spatial and temporal scales. However, habitat suitability models developed to predict the impacts of environmental changes on potential species' distributions should provide rigorous science-based tools for compensation planning. Here we describe the two main classes of predictive models: correlative models and individual-based mechanistic models. We show how these models can be used alone or synoptically to improve compensation planning. While correlative models are easier to implement, they tend to ignore underlying ecological processes and lack accuracy. On the contrary, individual-based mechanistic models can integrate biological interactions, dispersal ability and adaptation. Moreover, among mechanistic models, those considering animal energy balance are particularly efficient at predicting the impact of foraging habitat loss. However, mechanistic models require more field data compared to correlative models. Hence we present two approaches which combine both methods for compensation planning, especially in relation to the spatial scale considered. We show how the availability of biological databases and software enabling fast and accurate population projections could be advantageously used to assess ecological compensation requirement efficiently in environmental impact assessments. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Spatial Correlations in Natural Scenes Modulate Response Reliability in Mouse Visual Cortex

PubMed Central

Rikhye, Rajeev V.

2015-01-01

Intrinsic neuronal variability significantly limits information encoding in the primary visual cortex (V1). Certain stimuli can suppress this intertrial variability to increase the reliability of neuronal responses. In particular, responses to natural scenes, which have broadband spatiotemporal statistics, are more reliable than responses to stimuli such as gratings. However, very little is known about which stimulus statistics modulate reliable coding and how this occurs at the neural ensemble level. Here, we sought to elucidate the role that spatial correlations in natural scenes play in reliable coding. We developed a novel noise-masking method to systematically alter spatial correlations in natural movies, without altering their edge structure. Using high-speed two-photon calcium imaging in vivo, we found that responses in mouse V1 were much less reliable at both the single neuron and population level when spatial correlations were removed from the image. This change in reliability was due to a reorganization of between-neuron correlations. Strongly correlated neurons formed ensembles that reliably and accurately encoded visual stimuli, whereas reducing spatial correlations reduced the activation of these ensembles, leading to an unreliable code. Together with an ensemble-specific normalization model, these results suggest that the coordinated activation of specific subsets of neurons underlies the reliable coding of natural scenes. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The natural environment is rich with information. To process this information with high fidelity, V1 neurons have to be robust to noise and, consequentially, must generate responses that are reliable from trial to trial. While several studies have hinted that both stimulus attributes and population coding may reduce noise, the details remain unclear. Specifically, what features of natural scenes are important and how do they modulate reliability? This study is the first to investigate the role of spatial correlations, which are a fundamental attribute of natural scenes, in shaping stimulus coding by V1 neurons. Our results provide new insights into how stimulus spatial correlations reorganize the correlated activation of specific ensembles of neurons to ensure accurate information processing in V1. PMID:26511254

The SPAtial EFficiency metric (SPAEF): multiple-component evaluation of spatial patterns for optimization of hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, Julian; Cüneyd Demirel, Mehmet; Stisen, Simon

2018-05-01

The process of model evaluation is not only an integral part of model development and calibration but also of paramount importance when communicating modelling results to the scientific community and stakeholders. The modelling community has a large and well-tested toolbox of metrics to evaluate temporal model performance. In contrast, spatial performance evaluation does not correspond to the grand availability of spatial observations readily available and to the sophisticate model codes simulating the spatial variability of complex hydrological processes. This study makes a contribution towards advancing spatial-pattern-oriented model calibration by rigorously testing a multiple-component performance metric. The promoted SPAtial EFficiency (SPAEF) metric reflects three equally weighted components: correlation, coefficient of variation and histogram overlap. This multiple-component approach is found to be advantageous in order to achieve the complex task of comparing spatial patterns. SPAEF, its three components individually and two alternative spatial performance metrics, i.e. connectivity analysis and fractions skill score, are applied in a spatial-pattern-oriented model calibration of a catchment model in Denmark. Results suggest the importance of multiple-component metrics because stand-alone metrics tend to fail to provide holistic pattern information. The three SPAEF components are found to be independent, which allows them to complement each other in a meaningful way. In order to optimally exploit spatial observations made available by remote sensing platforms, this study suggests applying bias insensitive metrics which further allow for a comparison of variables which are related but may differ in unit. This study applies SPAEF in the hydrological context using the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM; version 5.8), but we see great potential across disciplines related to spatially distributed earth system modelling.

High Incidence of Breast Cancer in Light-Polluted Areas with Spatial Effects in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Yun Jeong; Park, Man Sik; Lee, Eunil; Choi, Jae Wook

2016-01-01

We have reported a high prevalence of breast cancer in light-polluted areas in Korea. However, it is necessary to analyze the spatial effects of light polluted areas on breast cancer because light pollution levels are correlated with region proximity to central urbanized areas in studied cities. In this study, we applied a spatial regression method (an intrinsic conditional autoregressive [iCAR] model) to analyze the relationship between the incidence of breast cancer and artificial light at night (ALAN) levels in 25 regions including central city, urbanized, and rural areas. By Poisson regression analysis, there was a significant correlation between ALAN, alcohol consumption rates, and the incidence of breast cancer. We also found significant spatial effects between ALAN and the incidence of breast cancer, with an increase in the deviance information criterion (DIC) from 374.3 to 348.6 and an increase in R2 from 0.574 to 0.667. Therefore, spatial analysis (an iCAR model) is more appropriate for assessing ALAN effects on breast cancer. To our knowledge, this study is the first to show spatial effects of light pollution on breast cancer, despite the limitations of an ecological study. We suggest that a decrease in ALAN could reduce breast cancer more than expected because of spatial effects.

Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for spatially correlated data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olea, R.A.; Pawlowsky-Glahn, V.

2009-01-01

The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is a convenient method for investigating whether two underlying univariate probability distributions can be regarded as undistinguishable from each other or whether an underlying probability distribution differs from a hypothesized distribution. Application of the test requires that the sample be unbiased and the outcomes be independent and identically distributed, conditions that are violated in several degrees by spatially continuous attributes, such as topographical elevation. A generalized form of the bootstrap method is used here for the purpose of modeling the distribution of the statistic D of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The innovation is in the resampling, which in the traditional formulation of bootstrap is done by drawing from the empirical sample with replacement presuming independence. The generalization consists of preparing resamplings with the same spatial correlation as the empirical sample. This is accomplished by reading the value of unconditional stochastic realizations at the sampling locations, realizations that are generated by simulated annealing. The new approach was tested by two empirical samples taken from an exhaustive sample closely following a lognormal distribution. One sample was a regular, unbiased sample while the other one was a clustered, preferential sample that had to be preprocessed. Our results show that the p-value for the spatially correlated case is always larger that the p-value of the statistic in the absence of spatial correlation, which is in agreement with the fact that the information content of an uncorrelated sample is larger than the one for a spatially correlated sample of the same size. ?? Springer-Verlag 2008.

Spatial autocorrelation of West Nile virus vector mosquito abundance in a seasonally wet suburban environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trawinski, P. R.; Mackay, D. S.

2009-03-01

The objective of this study is to quantify and model spatial dependence in mosquito vector populations and develop predictions for unsampled locations using geostatistics. Mosquito control program trap sites are often located too far apart to detect spatial dependence but the results show that integration of spatial data over time for Cx. pipiens-restuans and according to meteorological conditions for Ae. vexans enables spatial analysis of sparse sample data. This study shows that mosquito abundance is spatially correlated and that spatial dependence differs between Cx. pipiens-restuans and Ae. vexans mosquitoes.

Coarse-grained hydrodynamics from correlation functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, Bruce

2018-02-01

This paper will describe a formalism for using correlation functions between different grid cells as the basis for determining coarse-grained hydrodynamic equations for modeling the behavior of mesoscopic fluid systems. Configurations from a molecular dynamics simulation or other atomistic simulation are projected onto basis functions representing grid cells in a continuum hydrodynamic simulation. Equilibrium correlation functions between different grid cells are evaluated from the molecular simulation and used to determine the evolution operator for the coarse-grained hydrodynamic system. The formalism is demonstrated on a discrete particle simulation of diffusion with a spatially dependent diffusion coefficient. Correlation functions are calculated from the particle simulation and the spatially varying diffusion coefficient is recovered using a fitting procedure.

Activation of parallel fiber feedback by spatially diffuse stimuli reduces signal and noise correlations via independent mechanisms in a cerebellum-like structure.

PubMed

Simmonds, Benjamin; Chacron, Maurice J

2015-01-01

Correlations between the activities of neighboring neurons are observed ubiquitously across systems and species and are dynamically regulated by several factors such as the stimulus' spatiotemporal extent as well as by the brain's internal state. Using the electrosensory system of gymnotiform weakly electric fish, we recorded the activities of pyramidal cell pairs within the electrosensory lateral line lobe (ELL) under spatially localized and diffuse stimulation. We found that both signal and noise correlations were markedly reduced (>40%) under the latter stimulation. Through a network model incorporating key anatomical features of the ELL, we reveal how activation of diffuse parallel fiber feedback from granule cells by spatially diffuse stimulation can explain both the reduction in signal as well as the reduction in noise correlations seen experimentally through independent mechanisms. First, we show that burst-timing dependent plasticity, which leads to a negative image of the stimulus and thereby reduces single neuron responses, decreases signal but not noise correlations. Second, we show trial-to-trial variability in the responses of single granule cells to sensory input reduces noise but not signal correlations. Thus, our model predicts that the same feedback pathway can simultaneously reduce both signal and noise correlations through independent mechanisms. To test this prediction experimentally, we pharmacologically inactivated parallel fiber feedback onto ELL pyramidal cells. In agreement with modeling predictions, we found that inactivation increased both signal and noise correlations but that there was no significant relationship between magnitude of the increase in signal correlations and the magnitude of the increase in noise correlations. The mechanisms reported in this study are expected to be generally applicable to the cerebellum as well as other cerebellum-like structures. We further discuss the implications of such decorrelation on the neural coding strategies used by the electrosensory and by other systems to process natural stimuli.

Using SMOS brightness temperature and derived surface-soil moisture to characterize surface conditions and validate land surface models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polcher, Jan; Barella-Ortiz, Anaïs; Piles, Maria; Gelati, Emiliano; de Rosnay, Patricia

2017-04-01

The SMOS satellite, operated by ESA, observes the surface in the L-band. On continental surface these observations are sensitive to moisture and in particular surface-soil moisture (SSM). In this presentation we will explore how the observations of this satellite can be exploited over the Iberian Peninsula by comparing its results with two land surface models : ORCHIDEE and HTESSEL. Measured and modelled brightness temperatures show a good agreement in their temporal evolution, but their spatial structures are not consistent. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of the brightness temperature's error identifies a dominant structure over the south-west of the Iberian Peninsula which evolves during the year and is maximum in autumn and winter. Hypotheses concerning forcing-induced biases and assumptions made in the radiative transfer model are analysed to explain this inconsistency, but no candidate is found to be responsible for the weak spatial correlations. The analysis of spatial inconsistencies between modelled and measured TBs is important, as these can affect the estimation of geophysical variables and TB assimilation in operational models, as well as result in misleading validation studies. When comparing the surface-soil moisture of the models with the product derived operationally by ESA from SMOS observations similar results are found. The spatial correlation over the IP between SMOS and ORCHIDEE SSM estimates is poor (ρ 0.3). A single value decomposition (SVD) analysis of rainfall and SSM shows that the co-varying patterns of these variables are in reasonable agreement between both products. Moreover the first three SVD soil moisture patterns explain over 80% of the SSM variance simulated by the model while the explained fraction is only 52% of the remotely sensed values. These results suggest that the rainfall-driven soil moisture variability may not account for the poor spatial correlation between SMOS and ORCHIDEE products. Other reasons have to be sought to explain the poor agreement in spatial patterns between satellite derived and modelled SSM. This presentation will hopefully contribute to the discussion of how SMOS and other observations can be used to prepare, carry-out and exploit a field campaign over the Iberian Peninsula which aims at improving our understanding of semi-arid land surface processes.

Predicting above-ground density and distribution of small mammal prey species at large spatial scales

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Grassland and shrub-steppe ecosystems are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic activities. Loss of native habitats may negatively impact important small mammal prey species. Little information, however, is available on the impact of habitat variability on density of small mammal prey species at broad spatial scales. We examined the relationship between small mammal density and remotely-sensed environmental covariates in shrub-steppe and grassland ecosystems in Wyoming, USA. We sampled four sciurid and leporid species groups using line transect methods, and used hierarchical distance-sampling to model density in response to variation in vegetation, climate, topographic, and anthropogenic variables, while accounting for variation in detection probability. We created spatial predictions of each species’ density and distribution. Sciurid and leporid species exhibited mixed responses to vegetation, such that changes to native habitat will likely affect prey species differently. Density of white-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys leucurus), Wyoming ground squirrels (Urocitellus elegans), and leporids correlated negatively with proportion of shrub or sagebrush cover and positively with herbaceous cover or bare ground, whereas least chipmunks showed a positive correlation with shrub cover and a negative correlation with herbaceous cover. Spatial predictions from our models provide a landscape-scale metric of above-ground prey density, which will facilitate the development of conservation plans for these taxa and their predators at spatial scales relevant to management. PMID:28520757

Multiseason occupancy models for correlated replicate surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hines, James; Nichols, James D.; Collazo, Jaime

2014-01-01

Occupancy surveys collecting data from adjacent (sometimes correlated) spatial replicates have become relatively popular for logistical reasons. Hines et al. (2010) presented one approach to modelling such data for single-season occupancy surveys. Here, we present a multiseason analogue of this model (with corresponding software) for inferences about occupancy dynamics. We include a new parameter to deal with the uncertainty associated with the first spatial replicate for both single-season and multiseason models. We use a case study, based on the brown-headed nuthatch, to assess the need for these models when analysing data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), and we test various hypotheses about occupancy dynamics for this species in the south-eastern United States. The new model permits inference about local probabilities of extinction, colonization and occupancy for sampling conducted over multiple seasons. The model performs adequately, based on a small simulation study and on results of the case study analysis. The new model incorporating correlated replicates was strongly favoured by model selection for the BBS data for brown-headed nuthatch (Sitta pusilla). Latitude was found to be an important source of variation in local colonization and occupancy probabilities for brown-headed nuthatch, with both probabilities being higher near the centre of the species range, as opposed to more northern and southern areas. We recommend this new occupancy model for detection–nondetection studies that use potentially correlated replicates.

Stochastic Analysis and Probabilistic Downscaling of Soil Moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshon, J. P.; Niemann, J. D.; Green, T. R.; Jones, A. S.

2017-12-01

Soil moisture is a key variable for rainfall-runoff response estimation, ecological and biogeochemical flux estimation, and biodiversity characterization, each of which is useful for watershed condition assessment. These applications require not only accurate, fine-resolution soil-moisture estimates but also confidence limits on those estimates and soil-moisture patterns that exhibit realistic statistical properties (e.g., variance and spatial correlation structure). The Equilibrium Moisture from Topography, Vegetation, and Soil (EMT+VS) model downscales coarse-resolution (9-40 km) soil moisture from satellite remote sensing or land-surface models to produce fine-resolution (10-30 m) estimates. The model was designed to produce accurate deterministic soil-moisture estimates at multiple points, but the resulting patterns do not reproduce the variance or spatial correlation of observed soil-moisture patterns. The primary objective of this research is to generalize the EMT+VS model to produce a probability density function (pdf) for soil moisture at each fine-resolution location and time. Each pdf has a mean that is equal to the deterministic soil-moisture estimate, and the pdf can be used to quantify the uncertainty in the soil-moisture estimates and to simulate soil-moisture patterns. Different versions of the generalized model are hypothesized based on how uncertainty enters the model, whether the uncertainty is additive or multiplicative, and which distributions describe the uncertainty. These versions are then tested by application to four catchments with detailed soil-moisture observations (Tarrawarra, Satellite Station, Cache la Poudre, and Nerrigundah). The performance of the generalized models is evaluated by comparing the statistical properties of the simulated soil-moisture patterns to those of the observations and the deterministic EMT+VS model. The versions of the generalized EMT+VS model with normally distributed stochastic components produce soil-moisture patterns with more realistic statistical properties than the deterministic model. Additionally, the results suggest that the variance and spatial correlation of the stochastic soil-moisture variations do not vary consistently with the spatial-average soil moisture.

Effects of calcium leaching on diffusion properties of hardened and altered cement pastes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurumisawa, Kiyofumi; Haga, Kazuko; Hayashi, Daisuke; Owada, Hitoshi

2017-06-01

It is very important to predict alterations in the concrete used for fabricating disposal containers for radioactive waste. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the alteration of cementitious materials caused by calcium leaching when they are in contact with ground water in the long term. To evaluate the long-term transport characteristics of cementitious materials, the microstructural behavior of these materials should be considered. However, many predictive models of transport characteristics focus on the pore structure, while only few such models consider both, the spatial distribution of calcium silicate hydrate (C-S-H), portlandite, and the pore spaces. This study focused on the spatial distribution of these cement phases. The auto-correlation function of each phase of cementitious materials was calculated from two-dimensional backscattered electron imaging, and the three-dimensional spatial image of the cementitious material was produced using these auto-correlation functions. An attempt was made to estimate the diffusion coefficient of chloride from the three-dimensional spatial image. The estimated diffusion coefficient of the altered sample from the three-dimensional spatial image was found to be comparable to the measured value. This demonstrated that it is possible to predict the diffusion coefficient of the altered cement paste by using the proposed model.

A comparison of correlation-length estimation methods for the objective analysis of surface pollutants at Environment and Climate Change Canada.

PubMed

Ménard, Richard; Deshaies-Jacques, Martin; Gasset, Nicolas

2016-09-01

An objective analysis is one of the main components of data assimilation. By combining observations with the output of a predictive model we combine the best features of each source of information: the complete spatial and temporal coverage provided by models, with a close representation of the truth provided by observations. The process of combining observations with a model output is called an analysis. To produce an analysis requires the knowledge of observation and model errors, as well as its spatial correlation. This paper is devoted to the development of methods of estimation of these error variances and the characteristic length-scale of the model error correlation for its operational use in the Canadian objective analysis system. We first argue in favor of using compact support correlation functions, and then introduce three estimation methods: the Hollingsworth-Lönnberg (HL) method in local and global form, the maximum likelihood method (ML), and the [Formula: see text] diagnostic method. We perform one-dimensional (1D) simulation studies where the error variance and true correlation length are known, and perform an estimation of both error variances and correlation length where both are non-uniform. We show that a local version of the HL method can capture accurately the error variances and correlation length at each observation site, provided that spatial variability is not too strong. However, the operational objective analysis requires only a single and globally valid correlation length. We examine whether any statistics of the local HL correlation lengths could be a useful estimate, or whether other global estimation methods such as by the global HL, ML, or [Formula: see text] should be used. We found in both 1D simulation and using real data that the ML method is able to capture physically significant aspects of the correlation length, while most other estimates give unphysical and larger length-scale values. This paper describes a proposed improvement of the objective analysis of surface pollutants at Environment and Climate Change Canada (formerly known as Environment Canada). Objective analyses are essentially surface maps of air pollutants that are obtained by combining observations with an air quality model output, and are thought to provide a complete and more accurate representation of the air quality. The highlight of this study is an analysis of methods to estimate the model (or background) error correlation length-scale. The error statistics are an important and critical component to the analysis scheme.

Linear models of coregionalization for multivariate lattice data: Order-dependent and order-free cMCARs.

PubMed

MacNab, Ying C

2016-08-01

This paper concerns with multivariate conditional autoregressive models defined by linear combination of independent or correlated underlying spatial processes. Known as linear models of coregionalization, the method offers a systematic and unified approach for formulating multivariate extensions to a broad range of univariate conditional autoregressive models. The resulting multivariate spatial models represent classes of coregionalized multivariate conditional autoregressive models that enable flexible modelling of multivariate spatial interactions, yielding coregionalization models with symmetric or asymmetric cross-covariances of different spatial variation and smoothness. In the context of multivariate disease mapping, for example, they facilitate borrowing strength both over space and cross variables, allowing for more flexible multivariate spatial smoothing. Specifically, we present a broadened coregionalization framework to include order-dependent, order-free, and order-robust multivariate models; a new class of order-free coregionalized multivariate conditional autoregressives is introduced. We tackle computational challenges and present solutions that are integral for Bayesian analysis of these models. We also discuss two ways of computing deviance information criterion for comparison among competing hierarchical models with or without unidentifiable prior parameters. The models and related methodology are developed in the broad context of modelling multivariate data on spatial lattice and illustrated in the context of multivariate disease mapping. The coregionalization framework and related methods also present a general approach for building spatially structured cross-covariance functions for multivariate geostatistics. © The Author(s) 2016.

The geography of recreational open space: influence of neighborhood racial composition and neighborhood poverty.

PubMed

Duncan, Dustin T; Kawachi, Ichiro; White, Kellee; Williams, David R

2013-08-01

The geography of recreational open space might be inequitable in terms of minority neighborhood racial/ethnic composition and neighborhood poverty, perhaps due in part to residential segregation. This study evaluated the association between minority neighborhood racial/ethnic composition, neighborhood poverty, and recreational open space in Boston, Massachusetts (US). Across Boston census tracts, we computed percent non-Hispanic Black, percent Hispanic, and percent families in poverty as well as recreational open space density. We evaluated spatial autocorrelation in study variables and in the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression residuals via the Global Moran's I. We then computed Spearman correlations between the census tract socio-demographic characteristics and recreational open space density, including correlations adjusted for spatial autocorrelation. After this, we computed OLS regressions or spatial regressions as appropriate. Significant positive spatial autocorrelation was found for neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics (all p value = 0.001). We found marginally significant positive spatial autocorrelation in recreational open space (Global Moran's I = 0.082; p value = 0.053). However, we found no spatial autocorrelation in the OLS regression residuals, which indicated that spatial models were not appropriate. There was a negative correlation between census tract percent non-Hispanic Black and recreational open space density (r S = -0.22; conventional p value = 0.005; spatially adjusted p value = 0.019) as well as a negative correlation between predominantly non-Hispanic Black census tracts (>60 % non-Hispanic Black in a census tract) and recreational open space density (r S = -0.23; conventional p value = 0.003; spatially adjusted p value = 0.007). In bivariate and multivariate OLS models, percent non-Hispanic Black in a census tract and predominantly Black census tracts were associated with decreased density of recreational open space (p value < 0.001). Consistent with several previous studies in other geographic locales, we found that Black neighborhoods in Boston were less likely to have recreational open spaces, indicating the need for policy interventions promoting equitable access. Such interventions may contribute to reductions and disparities in obesity.

The effect of road network patterns on pedestrian safety: A zone-based Bayesian spatial modeling approach.

PubMed

Guo, Qiang; Xu, Pengpeng; Pei, Xin; Wong, S C; Yao, Danya

2017-02-01

Pedestrian safety is increasingly recognized as a major public health concern. Extensive safety studies have been conducted to examine the influence of multiple variables on the occurrence of pedestrian-vehicle crashes. However, the explicit relationship between pedestrian safety and road network characteristics remains unknown. This study particularly focused on the role of different road network patterns on the occurrence of crashes involving pedestrians. A global integration index via space syntax was introduced to quantify the topological structures of road networks. The Bayesian Poisson-lognormal (PLN) models with conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior were then developed via three different proximity structures: contiguity, geometry-centroid distance, and road network connectivity. The models were also compared with the PLN counterpart without spatial correlation effects. The analysis was based on a comprehensive crash dataset from 131 selected traffic analysis zones in Hong Kong. The results indicated that higher global integration was associated with more pedestrian-vehicle crashes; the irregular pattern network was proved to be safest in terms of pedestrian crash occurrences, whereas the grid pattern was the least safe; the CAR model with a neighborhood structure based on road network connectivity was found to outperform in model goodness-of-fit, implying the importance of accurately accounting for spatial correlation when modeling spatially aggregated crash data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial analysis of MODIS aerosol optical depth, PM2.5, and chronic coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Hu, Zhiyong

2009-05-12

Numerous studies have found adverse health effects of acute and chronic exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Air pollution epidemiological studies relying on ground measurements provided by monitoring networks are often limited by sparse and unbalanced spatial distribution of the monitors. Studies have found correlations between satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) and PM2.5 in some land regions. Satellite aerosol data may be used to extend the spatial coverage of PM2.5 exposure assessment. This study was to investigate correlation between PM2.5 and AOD in the conterminous USA, to derive a spatially complete PM2.5 surface by merging satellite AOD data and ground measurements based on the potential correlation, and to examine if there is an association of coronary heart disease with PM2.5. Years 2003 and 2004 daily MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) Level 2 AOD images were collated with US EPA PM2.5 data covering the conterminous USA. Pearson's correlation analysis and geographically weighted regression (GWR) found that the relationship between PM2.5 and AOD is not spatially consistent across the conterminous states. The average correlation is 0.67 in the east and 0.22 in the west. GWR predicts well in the east and poorly in the west. The GWR model was used to derive a PM2.5 grid surface using the mean AOD raster calculated using the daily AOD data (RMSE = 1.67 microg/m3). Fitting of a Bayesian hierarchical model linking PM2.5 with age-race standardized mortality rates (SMRs) of chronic coronary heart disease found that areas with higher values of PM2.5 also show high rates of CCHD mortality: = 0.802, posterior 95% Bayesian credible interval (CI) = (0.386, 1.225). There is a spatial variation of the relationship between PM2.5 and AOD in the conterminous USA. In the eastern USA where AOD correlates well with PM2.5, AOD can be merged with ground PM2.5 data to derive a PM2.5 surface for epidemiological study. The study found that chronic coronary heart disease mortality rate increases with exposure to PM2.5.

[Spatial epidemiological study on malaria epidemics in Hainan province].

PubMed

Wen, Liang; Shi, Run-He; Fang, Li-Qun; Xu, De-Zhong; Li, Cheng-Yi; Wang, Yong; Yuan, Zheng-Quan; Zhang, Hui

2008-06-01

To better understand the characteristics of spatial distribution of malaria epidemics in Hainan province and to explore the relationship between malaria epidemics and environmental factors, as well to develop prediction model on malaria epidemics. Data on Malaria and meteorological factors were collected in all 19 counties in Hainan province from May to Oct., 2000, and the proportion of land use types of these counties in this period were extracted from digital map of land use in Hainan province. Land surface temperatures (LST) were extracted from MODIS images and elevations of these counties were extracted from DEM of Hainan province. The coefficients of correlation of malaria incidences and these environmental factors were then calculated with SPSS 13.0, and negative binomial regression analysis were done using SAS 9.0. The incidence of malaria showed (1) positive correlations to elevation, proportion of forest land area and grassland area; (2) negative correlations to the proportion of cultivated area, urban and rural residents and to industrial enterprise area, LST; (3) no correlations to meteorological factors, proportion of water area, and unemployed land area. The prediction model of malaria which came from negative binomial regression analysis was: I (monthly, unit: 1/1,000,000) = exp (-1.672-0.399xLST). Spatial distribution of malaria epidemics was associated with some environmental factors, and prediction model of malaria epidemic could be developed with indexes which extracted from satellite remote sensing images.

Selecting a Separable Parametric Spatiotemporal Covariance Structure for Longitudinal Imaging Data

PubMed Central

George, Brandon; Aban, Inmaculada

2014-01-01

Longitudinal imaging studies allow great insight into how the structure and function of a subject’s internal anatomy changes over time. Unfortunately, the analysis of longitudinal imaging data is complicated by inherent spatial and temporal correlation: the temporal from the repeated measures, and the spatial from the outcomes of interest being observed at multiple points in a patients body. We propose the use of a linear model with a separable parametric spatiotemporal error structure for the analysis of repeated imaging data. The model makes use of spatial (exponential, spherical, and Matérn) and temporal (compound symmetric, autoregressive-1, Toeplitz, and unstructured) parametric correlation functions. A simulation study, inspired by a longitudinal cardiac imaging study on mitral regurgitation patients, compared different information criteria for selecting a particular separable parametric spatiotemporal correlation structure as well as the effects on Type I and II error rates for inference on fixed effects when the specified model is incorrect. Information criteria were found to be highly accurate at choosing between separable parametric spatiotemporal correlation structures. Misspecification of the covariance structure was found to have the ability to inflate the Type I error or have an overly conservative test size, which corresponded to decreased power. An example with clinical data is given illustrating how the covariance structure procedure can be done in practice, as well as how covariance structure choice can change inferences about fixed effects. PMID:25293361

Incorporating microbial dormancy dynamics into soil decomposition models to improve quantification of soil carbon dynamics of northern temperate forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yujie; Yang, Jinyan; Zhuang, Qianlai; Harden, Jennifer W.; McGuire, Anthony D.; Liu, Yaling; Wang, Gangsheng; Gu, Lianhong

2015-12-01

Soil carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. Microbial-based decomposition models have seen much growth recently for quantifying this role, yet dormancy as a common strategy used by microorganisms has not usually been represented and tested in these models against field observations. Here we developed an explicit microbial-enzyme decomposition model and examined model performance with and without representation of microbial dormancy at six temperate forest sites of different forest types. We then extrapolated the model to global temperate forest ecosystems to investigate biogeochemical controls on soil heterotrophic respiration and microbial dormancy dynamics at different temporal-spatial scales. The dormancy model consistently produced better match with field-observed heterotrophic soil CO2 efflux (RH) than the no dormancy model. Our regional modeling results further indicated that models with dormancy were able to produce more realistic magnitude of microbial biomass (<2% of soil organic carbon) and soil RH (7.5 ± 2.4 Pg C yr-1). Spatial correlation analysis showed that soil organic carbon content was the dominating factor (correlation coefficient = 0.4-0.6) in the simulated spatial pattern of soil RH with both models. In contrast to strong temporal and local controls of soil temperature and moisture on microbial dormancy, our modeling results showed that soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio (C:N) was a major regulating factor at regional scales (correlation coefficient = -0.43 to -0.58), indicating scale-dependent biogeochemical controls on microbial dynamics. Our findings suggest that incorporating microbial dormancy could improve the realism of microbial-based decomposition models and enhance the integration of soil experiments and mechanistically based modeling.

Incorporating microbial dormancy dynamics into soil decomposition models to improve quantification of soil carbon dynamics of northern temperate forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

He, Yujie; Yang, Jinyan; Zhuang, Qianlai

Soil carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. Microbial-based decomposition models have seen much growth recently for quantifying this role, yet dormancy as a common strategy used by microorganisms has not usually been represented and tested in these models against field observations. Here in this study we developed an explicit microbial-enzyme decomposition model and examined model performance with and without representation of microbial dormancy at six temperate forest sites of different forest types. We then extrapolated the model to global temperate forest ecosystems to investigate biogeochemical controls on soil heterotrophic respiration and microbialmore » dormancy dynamics at different temporal-spatial scales. The dormancy model consistently produced better match with field-observed heterotrophic soil CO 2 efflux (R H) than the no dormancy model. Our regional modeling results further indicated that models with dormancy were able to produce more realistic magnitude of microbial biomass (<2% of soil organic carbon) and soil R H (7.5 ± 2.4 PgCyr -1). Spatial correlation analysis showed that soil organic carbon content was the dominating factor (correlation coefficient = 0.4-0.6) in the simulated spatial pattern of soil R H with both models. In contrast to strong temporal and local controls of soil temperature and moisture on microbial dormancy, our modeling results showed that soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio (C:N) was a major regulating factor at regional scales (correlation coefficient = -0.43 to -0.58), indicating scale-dependent biogeochemical controls on microbial dynamics. Our findings suggest that incorporating microbial dormancy could improve the realism of microbial-based decomposition models and enhance the integration of soil experiments and mechanistically based modeling.« less

Incorporating microbial dormancy dynamics into soil decomposition models to improve quantification of soil carbon dynamics of northern temperate forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

He, Yujie; Yang, Jinyan; Zhuang, Qianlai; Harden, Jennifer W.; McGuire, A. David; Liu, Yaling; Wang, Gangsheng; Gu, Lianhong

2015-01-01

Soil carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. Microbial-based decomposition models have seen much growth recently for quantifying this role, yet dormancy as a common strategy used by microorganisms has not usually been represented and tested in these models against field observations. Here we developed an explicit microbial-enzyme decomposition model and examined model performance with and without representation of microbial dormancy at six temperate forest sites of different forest types. We then extrapolated the model to global temperate forest ecosystems to investigate biogeochemical controls on soil heterotrophic respiration and microbial dormancy dynamics at different temporal-spatial scales. The dormancy model consistently produced better match with field-observed heterotrophic soil CO2 efflux (RH) than the no dormancy model. Our regional modeling results further indicated that models with dormancy were able to produce more realistic magnitude of microbial biomass (<2% of soil organic carbon) and soil RH (7.5 ± 2.4 Pg C yr−1). Spatial correlation analysis showed that soil organic carbon content was the dominating factor (correlation coefficient = 0.4–0.6) in the simulated spatial pattern of soil RHwith both models. In contrast to strong temporal and local controls of soil temperature and moisture on microbial dormancy, our modeling results showed that soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio (C:N) was a major regulating factor at regional scales (correlation coefficient = −0.43 to −0.58), indicating scale-dependent biogeochemical controls on microbial dynamics. Our findings suggest that incorporating microbial dormancy could improve the realism of microbial-based decomposition models and enhance the integration of soil experiments and mechanistically based modeling.

Temporal Data-Driven Sleep Scheduling and Spatial Data-Driven Anomaly Detection for Clustered Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Li, Gang; He, Bin; Huang, Hongwei; Tang, Limin

2016-01-01

The spatial–temporal correlation is an important feature of sensor data in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). Most of the existing works based on the spatial–temporal correlation can be divided into two parts: redundancy reduction and anomaly detection. These two parts are pursued separately in existing works. In this work, the combination of temporal data-driven sleep scheduling (TDSS) and spatial data-driven anomaly detection is proposed, where TDSS can reduce data redundancy. The TDSS model is inspired by transmission control protocol (TCP) congestion control. Based on long and linear cluster structure in the tunnel monitoring system, cooperative TDSS and spatial data-driven anomaly detection are then proposed. To realize synchronous acquisition in the same ring for analyzing the situation of every ring, TDSS is implemented in a cooperative way in the cluster. To keep the precision of sensor data, spatial data-driven anomaly detection based on the spatial correlation and Kriging method is realized to generate an anomaly indicator. The experiment results show that cooperative TDSS can realize non-uniform sensing effectively to reduce the energy consumption. In addition, spatial data-driven anomaly detection is quite significant for maintaining and improving the precision of sensor data. PMID:27690035

Fine-Scale Mapping by Spatial Risk Distribution Modeling for Regional Malaria Endemicity and Its Implications under the Low-to-Moderate Transmission Setting in Western Cambodia

PubMed Central

Okami, Suguru; Kohtake, Naohiko

2016-01-01

The disease burden of malaria has decreased as malaria elimination efforts progress. The mapping approach that uses spatial risk distribution modeling needs some adjustment and reinvestigation in accordance with situational changes. Here we applied a mathematical modeling approach for standardized morbidity ratio (SMR) calculated by annual parasite incidence using routinely aggregated surveillance reports, environmental data such as remote sensing data, and non-environmental anthropogenic data to create fine-scale spatial risk distribution maps of western Cambodia. Furthermore, we incorporated a combination of containment status indicators into the model to demonstrate spatial heterogeneities of the relationship between containment status and risks. The explanatory model was fitted to estimate the SMR of each area (adjusted Pearson correlation coefficient R2 = 0.774; Akaike information criterion AIC = 149.423). A Bayesian modeling framework was applied to estimate the uncertainty of the model and cross-scale predictions. Fine-scale maps were created by the spatial interpolation of estimated SMRs at each village. Compared with geocoded case data, corresponding predicted values showed conformity [Spearman’s rank correlation r = 0.662 in the inverse distance weighed interpolation and 0.645 in ordinal kriging (95% confidence intervals of 0.414–0.827 and 0.368–0.813, respectively), Welch’s t-test; Not significant]. The proposed approach successfully explained regional malaria risks and fine-scale risk maps were created under low-to-moderate malaria transmission settings where reinvestigations of existing risk modeling approaches were needed. Moreover, different representations of simulated outcomes of containment status indicators for respective areas provided useful insights for tailored interventional planning, considering regional malaria endemicity. PMID:27415623

Practical 3-D Beam Pattern Based Channel Modeling for Multi-Polarized Massive MIMO Systems.

PubMed

Aghaeinezhadfirouzja, Saeid; Liu, Hui; Balador, Ali

2018-04-12

In this paper, a practical non-stationary three-dimensional (3-D) channel models for massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems, considering beam patterns for different antenna elements, is proposed. The beam patterns using dipole antenna elements with different phase excitation toward the different direction of travels (DoTs) contributes various correlation weights for rays related towards/from the cluster, thus providing different elevation angle of arrivals (EAoAs) and elevation angle of departures (EAoDs) for each antenna element. These include the movements of the user that makes our channel to be a non-stationary model of clusters at the receiver (RX) on both the time and array axes. In addition, their impacts on 3-D massive MIMO channels are investigated via statistical properties including received spatial correlation. Additionally, the impact of elevation/azimuth angles of arrival on received spatial correlation is discussed. Furthermore, experimental validation of the proposed 3-D channel models on azimuth and elevation angles of the polarized antenna are specifically evaluated and compared through simulations. The proposed 3-D generic models are verified using relevant measurement data.

Practical 3-D Beam Pattern Based Channel Modeling for Multi-Polarized Massive MIMO Systems †

PubMed Central

Aghaeinezhadfirouzja, Saeid; Liu, Hui

2018-01-01

In this paper, a practical non-stationary three-dimensional (3-D) channel models for massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems, considering beam patterns for different antenna elements, is proposed. The beam patterns using dipole antenna elements with different phase excitation toward the different direction of travels (DoTs) contributes various correlation weights for rays related towards/from the cluster, thus providing different elevation angle of arrivals (EAoAs) and elevation angle of departures (EAoDs) for each antenna element. These include the movements of the user that makes our channel to be a non-stationary model of clusters at the receiver (RX) on both the time and array axes. In addition, their impacts on 3-D massive MIMO channels are investigated via statistical properties including received spatial correlation. Additionally, the impact of elevation/azimuth angles of arrival on received spatial correlation is discussed. Furthermore, experimental validation of the proposed 3-D channel models on azimuth and elevation angles of the polarized antenna are specifically evaluated and compared through simulations. The proposed 3-D generic models are verified using relevant measurement data. PMID:29649177

Distributed multi-criteria model evaluation and spatial association analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherer, Laura; Pfister, Stephan

2015-04-01

Model performance, if evaluated, is often communicated by a single indicator and at an aggregated level; however, it does not embrace the trade-offs between different indicators and the inherent spatial heterogeneity of model efficiency. In this study, we simulated the water balance of the Mississippi watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model was calibrated against monthly river discharge at 131 measurement stations. Its time series were bisected to allow for subsequent validation at the same gauges. Furthermore, the model was validated against evapotranspiration which was available as a continuous raster based on remote sensing. The model performance was evaluated for each of the 451 sub-watersheds using four different criteria: 1) Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), 2) percent bias (PBIAS), 3) root mean square error (RMSE) normalized to standard deviation (RSR), as well as 4) a combined indicator of the squared correlation coefficient and the linear regression slope (bR2). Conditions that might lead to a poor model performance include aridity, a very flat and steep relief, snowfall and dams, as indicated by previous research. In an attempt to explain spatial differences in model efficiency, the goodness of the model was spatially compared to these four phenomena by means of a bivariate spatial association measure which combines Pearson's correlation coefficient and Moran's index for spatial autocorrelation. In order to assess the model performance of the Mississippi watershed as a whole, three different averages of the sub-watershed results were computed by 1) applying equal weights, 2) weighting by the mean observed river discharge, 3) weighting by the upstream catchment area and the square root of the time series length. Ratings of model performance differed significantly in space and according to efficiency criterion. The model performed much better in the humid Eastern region than in the arid Western region which was confirmed by the high spatial association with the aridity index (ratio of mean annual precipitation to mean annual potential evapotranspiration). This association was still significant when controlling for slopes which manifested the second highest spatial association. In line with these findings, overall model efficiency of the entire Mississippi watershed appeared better when weighted with mean observed river discharge. Furthermore, the model received the highest rating with regards to PBIAS and was judged worst when considering NSE as the most comprehensive indicator. No universal performance indicator exists that considers all aspects of a hydrograph. Therefore, sound model evaluation must take into account multiple criteria. Since model efficiency varies in space which is masked by aggregated ratings spatially explicit model goodness should be communicated as standard praxis - at least as a measure of spatial variability of indicators. Furthermore, transparent documentation of the evaluation procedure also with regards to weighting of aggregated model performance is crucial but often lacking in published research. Finally, the high spatial association between model performance and aridity highlights the need to improve modelling schemes for arid conditions as priority over other aspects that might weaken model goodness.

A class of covariate-dependent spatiotemporal covariance functions

PubMed Central

Reich, Brian J; Eidsvik, Jo; Guindani, Michele; Nail, Amy J; Schmidt, Alexandra M.

2014-01-01

In geostatistics, it is common to model spatially distributed phenomena through an underlying stationary and isotropic spatial process. However, these assumptions are often untenable in practice because of the influence of local effects in the correlation structure. Therefore, it has been of prolonged interest in the literature to provide flexible and effective ways to model non-stationarity in the spatial effects. Arguably, due to the local nature of the problem, we might envision that the correlation structure would be highly dependent on local characteristics of the domain of study, namely the latitude, longitude and altitude of the observation sites, as well as other locally defined covariate information. In this work, we provide a flexible and computationally feasible way for allowing the correlation structure of the underlying processes to depend on local covariate information. We discuss the properties of the induced covariance functions and discuss methods to assess its dependence on local covariate information by means of a simulation study and the analysis of data observed at ozone-monitoring stations in the Southeast United States. PMID:24772199

Modeling the heterogeneous traffic correlations in urban road systems using traffic-enhanced community detection approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Feng; Liu, Kang; Duan, Yingying; Cheng, Shifen; Du, Fei

2018-07-01

A better characterization of the traffic influence among urban roads is crucial for traffic control and traffic forecasting. The existence of spatial heterogeneity imposes great influence on modeling the extent and degree of road traffic correlation, which is usually neglected by the traditional distance based method. In this paper, we propose a traffic-enhanced community detection approach to spatially reveal the traffic correlation in city road networks. First, the road network is modeled as a traffic-enhanced dual graph with the closeness between two road segments determined not only by their topological connection, but also by the traffic correlation between them. Then a flow-based community detection algorithm called Infomap is utilized to identify the road segment clusters. Evaluated by Moran's I, Calinski-Harabaz Index and the traffic interpolation application, we find that compared to the distance based method and the community based method, our proposed traffic-enhanced community based method behaves better in capturing the extent of traffic relevance as both the topological structure of the road network and the traffic correlations among urban roads are considered. It can be used in more traffic-related applications, such as traffic forecasting, traffic control and guidance.

Confronting weather and climate models with observational data from soil moisture networks over the United States

PubMed Central

Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Wu, Jiexia; Norton, Holly E.; Dorigo, Wouter A.; Quiring, Steven M.; Ford, Trenton W.; Santanello, Joseph A.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Ek, Michael B.; Koster, Randal D.; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Lawrence, David M.

2018-01-01

Four land surface models in uncoupled and coupled configurations are compared to observations of daily soil moisture from 19 networks in the conterminous United States to determine the viability of such comparisons and explore the characteristics of model and observational data. First, observations are analyzed for error characteristics and representation of spatial and temporal variability. Some networks have multiple stations within an area comparable to model grid boxes; for those we find that aggregation of stations before calculation of statistics has little effect on estimates of variance, but soil moisture memory is sensitive to aggregation. Statistics for some networks stand out as unlike those of their neighbors, likely due to differences in instrumentation, calibration and maintenance. Buried sensors appear to have less random error than near-field remote sensing techniques, and heat dissipation sensors show less temporal variability than other types. Model soil moistures are evaluated using three metrics: standard deviation in time, temporal correlation (memory) and spatial correlation (length scale). Models do relatively well in capturing large-scale variability of metrics across climate regimes, but poorly reproduce observed patterns at scales of hundreds of kilometers and smaller. Uncoupled land models do no better than coupled model configurations, nor do reanalyses outperform free-running models. Spatial decorrelation scales are found to be difficult to diagnose. Using data for model validation, calibration or data assimilation from multiple soil moisture networks with different types of sensors and measurement techniques requires great caution. Data from models and observations should be put on the same spatial and temporal scales before comparison. PMID:29645013

Confronting Weather and Climate Models with Observational Data from Soil Moisture Networks over the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Wu, Jiexia; Norton, Holly E.; Dorigo, Wouter A.; Quiring, Steven M.; Ford, Trenton W.; Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Ek, Michael B.; Koster, Randal Dean;

Confronting weather and climate models with observational data from soil moisture networks over the United States.

PubMed

Dirmeyer, Paul A; Wu, Jiexia; Norton, Holly E; Dorigo, Wouter A; Quiring, Steven M; Ford, Trenton W; Santanello, Joseph A; Bosilovich, Michael G; Ek, Michael B; Koster, Randal D; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Lawrence, David M

2016-04-01

Four land surface models in uncoupled and coupled configurations are compared to observations of daily soil moisture from 19 networks in the conterminous United States to determine the viability of such comparisons and explore the characteristics of model and observational data. First, observations are analyzed for error characteristics and representation of spatial and temporal variability. Some networks have multiple stations within an area comparable to model grid boxes; for those we find that aggregation of stations before calculation of statistics has little effect on estimates of variance, but soil moisture memory is sensitive to aggregation. Statistics for some networks stand out as unlike those of their neighbors, likely due to differences in instrumentation, calibration and maintenance. Buried sensors appear to have less random error than near-field remote sensing techniques, and heat dissipation sensors show less temporal variability than other types. Model soil moistures are evaluated using three metrics: standard deviation in time, temporal correlation (memory) and spatial correlation (length scale). Models do relatively well in capturing large-scale variability of metrics across climate regimes, but poorly reproduce observed patterns at scales of hundreds of kilometers and smaller. Uncoupled land models do no better than coupled model configurations, nor do reanalyses outperform free-running models. Spatial decorrelation scales are found to be difficult to diagnose. Using data for model validation, calibration or data assimilation from multiple soil moisture networks with different types of sensors and measurement techniques requires great caution. Data from models and observations should be put on the same spatial and temporal scales before comparison.

Multilevel discretized random field models with 'spin' correlations for the simulation of environmental spatial data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Žukovič, Milan; Hristopulos, Dionissios T.

2009-02-01

A current problem of practical significance is how to analyze large, spatially distributed, environmental data sets. The problem is more challenging for variables that follow non-Gaussian distributions. We show by means of numerical simulations that the spatial correlations between variables can be captured by interactions between 'spins'. The spins represent multilevel discretizations of environmental variables with respect to a number of pre-defined thresholds. The spatial dependence between the 'spins' is imposed by means of short-range interactions. We present two approaches, inspired by the Ising and Potts models, that generate conditional simulations of spatially distributed variables from samples with missing data. Currently, the sampling and simulation points are assumed to be at the nodes of a regular grid. The conditional simulations of the 'spin system' are forced to respect locally the sample values and the system statistics globally. The second constraint is enforced by minimizing a cost function representing the deviation between normalized correlation energies of the simulated and the sample distributions. In the approach based on the Nc-state Potts model, each point is assigned to one of Nc classes. The interactions involve all the points simultaneously. In the Ising model approach, a sequential simulation scheme is used: the discretization at each simulation level is binomial (i.e., ± 1). Information propagates from lower to higher levels as the simulation proceeds. We compare the two approaches in terms of their ability to reproduce the target statistics (e.g., the histogram and the variogram of the sample distribution), to predict data at unsampled locations, as well as in terms of their computational complexity. The comparison is based on a non-Gaussian data set (derived from a digital elevation model of the Walker Lake area, Nevada, USA). We discuss the impact of relevant simulation parameters, such as the domain size, the number of discretization levels, and the initial conditions.

Spatial variability of theaflavins and thearubigins fractions and their impact on black tea quality.

PubMed

Bhuyan, Lakshi Prasad; Borah, Paban; Sabhapondit, Santanu; Gogoi, Ramen; Bhattacharyya, Pradip

2015-12-01

The spatial distribution of theaflavin and thearubigin fractions and their impact on black tea quality were investigated using multivariate and geostatistics techniques. Black tea samples were collected from tea gardens of six geographical regions of Assam and West Bengal, India. Total theaflavin (TF) and its four fractions of upper Assam, south bank and North Bank teas were higher than the other regions. Simple theaflavin showed highest significant correlation with tasters' quality. Low molecular weight thearubigins of south bank and North Bank were significantly higher than other regions. Total thearubigin (TR) and its fractions revealed significant positive correlation with tasters' organoleptic valuations. Tea tasters' parameters were significantly and positively correlated with each other. The semivariogram for quality parameters were best represented by gaussian models. The nugget/sill ratio indicated a strong/moderate spatial dependence of the studied parameters. Spatial variation of tea quality parameters may be used for quality assessment in the tea growing areas of India.

A spatially adaptive spectral re-ordering technique for lossless coding of hyper-spectral images

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Memon, Nasir D.; Galatsanos, Nikolas

1995-01-01

In this paper, we propose a new approach, applicable to lossless compression of hyper-spectral images, that alleviates some limitations of linear prediction as applied to this problem. According to this approach, an adaptive re-ordering of the spectral components of each pixel is performed prior to prediction and encoding. This re-ordering adaptively exploits, on a pixel-by pixel basis, the presence of inter-band correlations for prediction. Furthermore, the proposed approach takes advantage of spatial correlations, and does not introduce any coding overhead to transmit the order of the spectral bands. This is accomplished by using the assumption that two spatially adjacent pixels are expected to have similar spectral relationships. We thus have a simple technique to exploit spectral and spatial correlations in hyper-spectral data sets, leading to compression performance improvements as compared to our previously reported techniques for lossless compression. We also look at some simple error modeling techniques for further exploiting any structure that remains in the prediction residuals prior to entropy coding.

Utilization of volume correlation filters for underwater mine identification in LIDAR imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walls, Bradley

2008-04-01

Underwater mine identification persists as a critical technology pursued aggressively by the Navy for fleet protection. As such, new and improved techniques must continue to be developed in order to provide measurable increases in mine identification performance and noticeable reductions in false alarm rates. In this paper we show how recent advances in the Volume Correlation Filter (VCF) developed for ground based LIDAR systems can be adapted to identify targets in underwater LIDAR imagery. Current automated target recognition (ATR) algorithms for underwater mine identification employ spatial based three-dimensional (3D) shape fitting of models to LIDAR data to identify common mine shapes consisting of the box, cylinder, hemisphere, truncated cone, wedge, and annulus. VCFs provide a promising alternative to these spatial techniques by correlating 3D models against the 3D rendered LIDAR data.

Do lower income areas have more pedestrian casualties?

PubMed

Noland, Robert B; Klein, Nicholas J; Tulach, Nicholas K

2013-10-01

Pedestrian and motor vehicle casualties are analyzed for the State of New Jersey with the objective of determining how the income of an area may be associated with casualties. We develop a maximum-likelihood negative binomial model to examine how various spatially defined variables, including road, income, and vehicle ownership, may be associated with casualties using census block-group level data. Due to suspected spatial correlation in the data we also employ a conditional autoregressive Bayesian model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation, implemented with Crimestat software. Results suggest that spatial correlation is an issue as some variables are not statistically significant in the spatial model. We find that both pedestrian and motor vehicle casualties are greater in lower income block groups. Both are also associated with less household vehicle ownership, which is not surprising for pedestrian casualties, but is a surprising result for motor vehicle casualties. Controls for various road categories provide expected relationships. Individual level data is further examined to determine relationships between the location of a crash victim and their residence zip code, and this largely confirms a residual effect associated with both lower income individuals and lower income areas. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implementations of geographically weighted lasso in spatial data with multicollinearity (Case study: Poverty modeling of Java Island)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiyorini, Anis; Suprijadi, Jadi; Handoko, Budhi

2017-03-01

Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is a regression model that takes into account the spatial heterogeneity effect. In the application of the GWR, inference on regression coefficients is often of interest, as is estimation and prediction of the response variable. Empirical research and studies have demonstrated that local correlation between explanatory variables can lead to estimated regression coefficients in GWR that are strongly correlated, a condition named multicollinearity. It later results on a large standard error on estimated regression coefficients, and, hence, problematic for inference on relationships between variables. Geographically Weighted Lasso (GWL) is a method which capable to deal with spatial heterogeneity and local multicollinearity in spatial data sets. GWL is a further development of GWR method, which adds a LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) constraint in parameter estimation. In this study, GWL will be applied by using fixed exponential kernel weights matrix to establish a poverty modeling of Java Island, Indonesia. The results of applying the GWL to poverty datasets show that this method stabilizes regression coefficients in the presence of multicollinearity and produces lower prediction and estimation error of the response variable than GWR does.

Vibration Response Models of a Stiffened Aluminum Plate Excited by a Shaker

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cabell, Randolph H.

2008-01-01

Numerical models of structural-acoustic interactions are of interest to aircraft designers and the space program. This paper describes a comparison between two energy finite element codes, a statistical energy analysis code, a structural finite element code, and the experimentally measured response of a stiffened aluminum plate excited by a shaker. Different methods for modeling the stiffeners and the power input from the shaker are discussed. The results show that the energy codes (energy finite element and statistical energy analysis) accurately predicted the measured mean square velocity of the plate. In addition, predictions from an energy finite element code had the best spatial correlation with measured velocities. However, predictions from a considerably simpler, single subsystem, statistical energy analysis model also correlated well with the spatial velocity distribution. The results highlight a need for further work to understand the relationship between modeling assumptions and the prediction results.

Correlates of individual, and age-related, differences in short-term learning.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhiyong; Davis, Hasker P; Salthouse, Timothy A; Tucker-Drob, Elliot M

2007-07-01

Latent growth models were applied to data on multitrial verbal and spatial learning tasks from two independent studies. Although significant individual differences in both initial level of performance and subsequent learning were found in both tasks, age differences were found only in mean initial level, and not in mean learning. In neither task was fluid or crystallized intelligence associated with learning. Although there were moderate correlations among the level parameters across the verbal and spatial tasks, the learning parameters were not significantly correlated with one another across task modalities. These results are inconsistent with the existence of a general (e.g., material-independent) learning ability.

Effects of ignition location models on the burn patterns of simulated wildfires

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Syphard, A.D.; Hawbaker, T.J.; Stewart, S.I.; Radeloff, V.C.

2011-01-01

Fire simulation studies that use models such as FARSITE often assume that ignition locations are distributed randomly, because spatially explicit information about actual ignition locations are difficult to obtain. However, many studies show that the spatial distribution of ignition locations, whether human-caused or natural, is non-random. Thus, predictions from fire simulations based on random ignitions may be unrealistic. However, the extent to which the assumption of ignition location affects the predictions of fire simulation models has never been systematically explored. Our goal was to assess the difference in fire simulations that are based on random versus non-random ignition location patterns. We conducted four sets of 6000 FARSITE simulations for the Santa Monica Mountains in California to quantify the influence of random and non-random ignition locations and normal and extreme weather conditions on fire size distributions and spatial patterns of burn probability. Under extreme weather conditions, fires were significantly larger for non-random ignitions compared to random ignitions (mean area of 344.5 ha and 230.1 ha, respectively), but burn probability maps were highly correlated (r = 0.83). Under normal weather, random ignitions produced significantly larger fires than non-random ignitions (17.5 ha and 13.3 ha, respectively), and the spatial correlations between burn probability maps were not high (r = 0.54), though the difference in the average burn probability was small. The results of the study suggest that the location of ignitions used in fire simulation models may substantially influence the spatial predictions of fire spread patterns. However, the spatial bias introduced by using a random ignition location model may be minimized if the fire simulations are conducted under extreme weather conditions when fire spread is greatest. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Using a Data-Driven Approach to Understand the Interaction between Catchment Characteristics and Water Quality Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Western, A. W.; Lintern, A.; Liu, S.; Ryu, D.; Webb, J. A.; Leahy, P.; Wilson, P.; Waters, D.; Bende-Michl, U.; Watson, M.

2016-12-01

Many streams, lakes and estuaries are experiencing increasing concentrations and loads of nutrient and sediments. Models that can predict the spatial and temporal variability in water quality of aquatic systems are required to help guide the management and restoration of polluted aquatic systems. We propose that a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework could be used to predict water quality responses over varying spatial and temporal scales. Stream water quality data and spatial data of catchment characteristics collected throughout Victoria and Queensland (in Australia) over two decades will be used to develop this Bayesian hierarchical model. In this paper, we present the preliminary exploratory data analysis required for the development of the Bayesian hierarchical model. Specifically, we present the results of exploratory data analysis of Total Nitrogen (TN) concentrations in rivers in Victoria (in South-East Australia) to illustrate the catchment characteristics that appear to be influencing spatial variability in (1) mean concentrations of TN; and (2) the relationship between discharge and TN throughout the state. These important catchment characteristics were identified using: (1) monthly TN concentrations measured at 28 water quality gauging stations and (2) climate, land use, topographic and geologic characteristics of the catchments of these 28 sites. Spatial variability in TN concentrations had a positive correlation to fertiliser use in the catchment and average temperature. There were negative correlations between TN concentrations and catchment forest cover, annual runoff, runoff perenniality, soil erosivity and catchment slope. The relationship between discharge and TN concentrations showed spatial variability, possibly resulting from climatic and topographic differences between the sites. The results of this study will feed into the hierarchical Bayesian model of river water quality.

Gate-violation behavior at highway-rail grade crossings and the consequences: Using geo-Spatial modeling integrated with path analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Jun; Khattak, Asad J

2017-12-01

Drivers undertaking risky behaviors at highway-rail grade crossings are often severely injured in collisions with trains. Among these behaviors, gate-violation (referring to driving around or through the gates that were activated and lowered by an approaching train) seems to be one of the most dangerous actions a driver might take at a gated crossing; it may compromise the intended safety improvement made by adding gates at crossings. This study develops a nuanced conceptual framework that uses path analysis to explore the contributing factors to gate-violation behaviors and the correlation between gate-violation behaviors and the crash consequence - the driver injury severity. Further, using geo-spatial modeling techniques, this study explores whether the correlates of gate-violation behaviors and their associations with injury severity are stationary across diverse geographic contexts of the United States. Geo-spatial modeling shows that the correlates of gate-violation and its associations with injury severity vary substantially across the United States. Spatial variations in correlates of gate-violation and injury severity are mapped by estimating geographically weighted regressions; the maps can serve as an instrument for screening safety improvements and help identify regions that need safety improvements. For example, the results show that two-quadrant gates are more likely to have gate-violation crashes than four-quadrant gates in Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota. These states may need to receive more attentions on the enforcement of inhibiting gate-violation at crossings with two-quadrant gates or have the priority over other states to upgrade these crossings to four-quadrant gates if financially feasible. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Three-dimensional Model of Tissue and Heavy Ions Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ponomarev, Artem L.; Sundaresan, Alamelu; Huff, Janice L.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2007-01-01

A three-dimensional tissue model was incorporated into a new Monte Carlo algorithm that simulates passage of heavy ions in a tissue box . The tissue box was given as a realistic model of tissue based on confocal microscopy images. The action of heavy ions on the cellular matrix for 2- or 3-dimensional cases was simulated. Cells were modeled as a cell culture monolayer in one example, where the data were taken directly from microscopy (2-d cell matrix), and as a multi-layer obtained from confocal microscopy (3-d case). Image segmentation was used to identify cells with precise areas/volumes in an irradiated cell culture monolayer, and slices of tissue with many cell layers. The cells were then inserted into the model box of the simulated physical space pixel by pixel. In the case of modeled tissues (3-d), the tissue box had periodic boundary conditions imposed, which extrapolates the technique to macroscopic volumes of tissue. For the real tissue (3-d), specific spatial patterns for cell apoptosis and necrosis are expected. The cell patterns were modeled based on action cross sections for apoptosis and necrosis estimated from current experimental data. A spatial correlation function indicating a higher spatial concentration of damaged cells from heavy ions relative to the low-LET radiation cell damage pattern is presented. The spatial correlation effects among necrotic cells can help studying microlesions in organs, and probable effects of directionality of heavy ion radiation on epithelium and endothelium.

Gutzwiller Monte Carlo approach for a critical dissipative spin model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casteels, Wim; Wilson, Ryan M.; Wouters, Michiel

2018-06-01

We use the Gutzwiller Monte Carlo approach to simulate the dissipative X Y Z model in the vicinity of a dissipative phase transition. This approach captures classical spatial correlations together with the full on-site quantum behavior while neglecting nonlocal quantum effects. By considering finite two-dimensional lattices of various sizes, we identify a ferromagnetic and two paramagnetic phases, in agreement with earlier studies. The greatly reduced numerical complexity of the Gutzwiller Monte Carlo approach facilitates efficient simulation of relatively large lattice sizes. The inclusion of the spatial correlations allows to capture parts of the phase diagram that are completely missed by the widely applied Gutzwiller decoupling of the density matrix.

On the effect of velocity gradients on the depth of correlation in μPIV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mustin, B.; Stoeber, B.

2016-03-01

The present work revisits the effect of velocity gradients on the depth of the measurement volume (depth of correlation) in microscopic particle image velocimetry (μPIV). General relations between the μPIV weighting functions and the local correlation function are derived from the original definition of the weighting functions. These relations are used to investigate under which circumstances the weighting functions are related to the curvature of the local correlation function. Furthermore, this work proposes a modified definition of the depth of correlation that leads to more realistic results than previous definitions for the case when flow gradients are taken into account. Dimensionless parameters suitable to describe the effect of velocity gradients on μPIV cross correlation are derived and visual interpretations of these parameters are proposed. We then investigate the effect of the dimensionless parameters on the weighting functions and the depth of correlation for different flow fields with spatially constant flow gradients and with spatially varying gradients. Finally this work demonstrates that the results and dimensionless parameters are not strictly bound to a certain model for particle image intensity distributions but are also meaningful when other models for particle images are used.

Global Gridded Crop Model Evaluation: Benchmarking, Skills, Deficiencies and Implications.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Hoek, Steven;

Spectral characteristics of background error covariance and multiscale data assimilation

DOE PAGES

Li, Zhijin; Cheng, Xiaoping; Gustafson, Jr., William I.; ...

2016-05-17

The steady increase of the spatial resolutions of numerical atmospheric and oceanic circulation models has occurred over the past decades. Horizontal grid spacing down to the order of 1 km is now often used to resolve cloud systems in the atmosphere and sub-mesoscale circulation systems in the ocean. These fine resolution models encompass a wide range of temporal and spatial scales, across which dynamical and statistical properties vary. In particular, dynamic flow systems at small scales can be spatially localized and temporarily intermittent. Difficulties of current data assimilation algorithms for such fine resolution models are numerically and theoretically examined. Ourmore » analysis shows that the background error correlation length scale is larger than 75 km for streamfunctions and is larger than 25 km for water vapor mixing ratios, even for a 2-km resolution model. A theoretical analysis suggests that such correlation length scales prevent the currently used data assimilation schemes from constraining spatial scales smaller than 150 km for streamfunctions and 50 km for water vapor mixing ratios. Moreover, our results highlight the need to fundamentally modify currently used data assimilation algorithms for assimilating high-resolution observations into the aforementioned fine resolution models. Lastly, within the framework of four-dimensional variational data assimilation, a multiscale methodology based on scale decomposition is suggested and challenges are discussed.« less

Coherent manipulation of spin correlations in the Hubbard model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wurz, N.; Chan, C. F.; Gall, M.; Drewes, J. H.; Cocchi, E.; Miller, L. A.; Pertot, D.; Brennecke, F.; Köhl, M.

2018-05-01

We coherently manipulate spin correlations in a two-component atomic Fermi gas loaded into an optical lattice using spatially and time-resolved Ramsey spectroscopy combined with high-resolution in situ imaging. This technique allows us not only to imprint spin patterns but also to probe the static magnetic structure factor at an arbitrary wave vector, in particular, the staggered structure factor. From a measurement along the diagonal of the first Brillouin zone of the optical lattice, we determine the magnetic correlation length and the individual spatial spin correlators. At half filling, the staggered magnetic structure factor serves as a sensitive thermometer, which we employ to study the equilibration in the spin and density sector during a slow quench of the lattice depth.

'spup' - an R package for uncertainty propagation in spatial environmental modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawicka, Kasia; Heuvelink, Gerard

2016-04-01

Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Currently, advances in uncertainty propagation and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability, including case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the 'spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo (MC) techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Uncertain environmental variables are represented in the package as objects whose attribute values may be uncertain and described by probability distributions. Both numerical and categorical data types are handled. Spatial auto-correlation within an attribute and cross-correlation between attributes is also accommodated for. For uncertainty propagation the package has implemented the MC approach with efficient sampling algorithms, i.e. stratified random sampling and Latin hypercube sampling. The design includes facilitation of parallel computing to speed up MC computation. The MC realizations may be used as an input to the environmental models called from R, or externally. Selected static and interactive visualization methods that are understandable by non-experts with limited background in statistics can be used to summarize and visualize uncertainty about the measured input, model parameters and output of the uncertainty propagation. We demonstrate that the 'spup' package is an effective and easy tool to apply and can be used in multi-disciplinary research and model-based decision support.

'spup' - an R package for uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawicka, Kasia; Heuvelink, Gerard

2017-04-01

Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Currently, advances in uncertainty propagation and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability and being able to deal with case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the 'spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo (MC) techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Uncertain environmental variables are represented in the package as objects whose attribute values may be uncertain and described by probability distributions. Both numerical and categorical data types are handled. Spatial auto-correlation within an attribute and cross-correlation between attributes is also accommodated for. For uncertainty propagation the package has implemented the MC approach with efficient sampling algorithms, i.e. stratified random sampling and Latin hypercube sampling. The design includes facilitation of parallel computing to speed up MC computation. The MC realizations may be used as an input to the environmental models called from R, or externally. Selected visualization methods that are understandable by non-experts with limited background in statistics can be used to summarize and visualize uncertainty about the measured input, model parameters and output of the uncertainty propagation. We demonstrate that the 'spup' package is an effective and easy tool to apply and can be used in multi-disciplinary research and model-based decision support.

Unveiling Spatial Epidemiology of HIV with Mobile Phone Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brdar, Sanja; Gavrić, Katarina; Ćulibrk, Dubravko; Crnojević, Vladimir

2016-01-01

An increasing amount of geo-referenced mobile phone data enables the identification of behavioral patterns, habits and movements of people. With this data, we can extract the knowledge potentially useful for many applications including the one tackled in this study - understanding spatial variation of epidemics. We explored the datasets collected by a cell phone service provider and linked them to spatial HIV prevalence rates estimated from publicly available surveys. For that purpose, 224 features were extracted from mobility and connectivity traces and related to the level of HIV epidemic in 50 Ivory Coast departments. By means of regression models, we evaluated predictive ability of extracted features. Several models predicted HIV prevalence that are highly correlated (>0.7) with actual values. Through contribution analysis we identified key elements that correlate with the rate of infections and could serve as a proxy for epidemic monitoring. Our findings indicate that night connectivity and activity, spatial area covered by users and overall migrations are strongly linked to HIV. By visualizing the communication and mobility flows, we strived to explain the spatial structure of epidemics. We discovered that strong ties and hubs in communication and mobility align with HIV hot spots.

Unveiling Spatial Epidemiology of HIV with Mobile Phone Data

PubMed Central

Brdar, Sanja; Gavrić, Katarina; Ćulibrk, Dubravko; Crnojević, Vladimir

2016-01-01

An increasing amount of geo-referenced mobile phone data enables the identification of behavioral patterns, habits and movements of people. With this data, we can extract the knowledge potentially useful for many applications including the one tackled in this study - understanding spatial variation of epidemics. We explored the datasets collected by a cell phone service provider and linked them to spatial HIV prevalence rates estimated from publicly available surveys. For that purpose, 224 features were extracted from mobility and connectivity traces and related to the level of HIV epidemic in 50 Ivory Coast departments. By means of regression models, we evaluated predictive ability of extracted features. Several models predicted HIV prevalence that are highly correlated (>0.7) with actual values. Through contribution analysis we identified key elements that correlate with the rate of infections and could serve as a proxy for epidemic monitoring. Our findings indicate that night connectivity and activity, spatial area covered by users and overall migrations are strongly linked to HIV. By visualizing the communication and mobility flows, we strived to explain the spatial structure of epidemics. We discovered that strong ties and hubs in communication and mobility align with HIV hot spots. PMID:26758042

Social and spatial processes associated with childhood diarrheal disease in Matlab, Bangladesh.

PubMed

Perez-Heydrich, Carolina; Furgurson, Jill M; Giebultowicz, Sophia; Winston, Jennifer J; Yunus, Mohammad; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Emch, Michael

2013-01-01

We develop novel methods for conceptualizing geographic space and social networks to evaluate their respective and combined contributions to childhood diarrheal incidence. After defining maternal networks according to direct familial linkages between females, and road networks using satellite imagery of the study area, we use a spatial econometrics model to evaluate the significance of correlation terms relating childhood diarrheal incidence to the incidence observed within respective networks. Disease was significantly clustered within road networks across time, but only inconsistently correlated within maternal networks. These methods could be widely applied to systems in which both social and spatial processes jointly influence health outcomes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Framing spatial cognition: Neural representations of proximal and distal frames of reference and their roles in navigation

PubMed Central

Knierim, James J.; Hamilton, Derek A.

2011-01-01

The most common behavioral test of hippocampus-dependent, spatial learning and memory is the Morris water task, and the most commonly studied behavioral correlate of hippocampal neurons is the spatial specificity of place cells. Despite decades of intensive research, it is not completely understood how animals solve the water task and how place cells generate their spatially specific firing fields. Based on early work, it has become the accepted wisdom in the general neuroscience community that distal spatial cues are the primary sources of information used by animals to solve the water task (and similar spatial tasks) and by place cells to generate their spatial specificity. More recent research, along with earlier studies that were overshadowed by the emphasis on distal cues, put this common view into question by demonstrating primary influences of local cues and local boundaries on spatial behavior and place-cell firing. This paper first reviews the historical underpinnings of the “standard” view from a behavioral perspective, and then reviews newer results demonstrating that an animal's behavior in such spatial tasks is more strongly controlled by a local-apparatus frame of reference than by distal landmarks. The paper then reviews similar findings from the literature on the neurophysiological correlates of place cells and other spatially-correlated cells from related brain areas. A model is proposed by which distal cues primarily set the orientation of the animal's internal spatial coordinate system, via the head direction cell system, whereas local cues and apparatus boundaries primarily set the translation and scale of that coordinate system. PMID:22013211

Multivariate Analysis and Modeling of Sediment Pollution Using Neural Network Models and Geostatistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golay, Jean; Kanevski, Mikhaïl

2013-04-01

The present research deals with the exploration and modeling of a complex dataset of 200 measurement points of sediment pollution by heavy metals in Lake Geneva. The fundamental idea was to use multivariate Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) along with geostatistical models and tools in order to improve the accuracy and the interpretability of data modeling. The results obtained with ANN were compared to those of traditional geostatistical algorithms like ordinary (co)kriging and (co)kriging with an external drift. Exploratory data analysis highlighted a great variety of relationships (i.e. linear, non-linear, independence) between the 11 variables of the dataset (i.e. Cadmium, Mercury, Zinc, Copper, Titanium, Chromium, Vanadium and Nickel as well as the spatial coordinates of the measurement points and their depth). Then, exploratory spatial data analysis (i.e. anisotropic variography, local spatial correlations and moving window statistics) was carried out. It was shown that the different phenomena to be modeled were characterized by high spatial anisotropies, complex spatial correlation structures and heteroscedasticity. A feature selection procedure based on General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) was also applied to create subsets of variables enabling to improve the predictions during the modeling phase. The basic modeling was conducted using a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) which is a workhorse of ANN. MLP models are robust and highly flexible tools which can incorporate in a nonlinear manner different kind of high-dimensional information. In the present research, the input layer was made of either two (spatial coordinates) or three neurons (when depth as auxiliary information could possibly capture an underlying trend) and the output layer was composed of one (univariate MLP) to eight neurons corresponding to the heavy metals of the dataset (multivariate MLP). MLP models with three input neurons can be referred to as Artificial Neural Networks with EXternal drift (ANNEX). Moreover, the exact number of output neurons and the selection of the corresponding variables were based on the subsets created during the exploratory phase. Concerning hidden layers, no restriction were made and multiple architectures were tested. For each MLP model, the quality of the modeling procedure was assessed by variograms: if the variogram of the residuals demonstrates pure nugget effect and if the level of the nugget exactly corresponds to the nugget value of the theoretical variogram of the corresponding variable, all the structured information has been correctly extracted without overfitting. Finally, it is worth mentioning that simple MLP models are not always able to remove all the spatial correlation structure from the data. In that case, Neural Network Residual Kriging (NNRK) can be carried out and risk assessment can be conducted with Neural Network Residual Simulations (NNRS). Finally, the results of the ANNEX models were compared to those of ordinary (co)kriging and (co)kriging with an external drift. It was shown that the ANNEX models performed better than traditional geostatistical algorithms when the relationship between the variable of interest and the auxiliary predictor was not linear. References Kanevski, M. and Maignan, M. (2004). Analysis and Modelling of Spatial Environmental Data. Lausanne: EPFL Press.

Spatiotemporal Context Awareness for Urban Traffic Modeling and Prediction: Sparse Representation Based Variable Selection.

PubMed

Yang, Su; Shi, Shixiong; Hu, Xiaobing; Wang, Minjie

2015-01-01

Spatial-temporal correlations among the data play an important role in traffic flow prediction. Correspondingly, traffic modeling and prediction based on big data analytics emerges due to the city-scale interactions among traffic flows. A new methodology based on sparse representation is proposed to reveal the spatial-temporal dependencies among traffic flows so as to simplify the correlations among traffic data for the prediction task at a given sensor. Three important findings are observed in the experiments: (1) Only traffic flows immediately prior to the present time affect the formation of current traffic flows, which implies the possibility to reduce the traditional high-order predictors into an 1-order model. (2) The spatial context relevant to a given prediction task is more complex than what is assumed to exist locally and can spread out to the whole city. (3) The spatial context varies with the target sensor undergoing prediction and enlarges with the increment of time lag for prediction. Because the scope of human mobility is subject to travel time, identifying the varying spatial context against time lag is crucial for prediction. Since sparse representation can capture the varying spatial context to adapt to the prediction task, it outperforms the traditional methods the inputs of which are confined as the data from a fixed number of nearby sensors. As the spatial-temporal context for any prediction task is fully detected from the traffic data in an automated manner, where no additional information regarding network topology is needed, it has good scalability to be applicable to large-scale networks.

Spatiotemporal Context Awareness for Urban Traffic Modeling and Prediction: Sparse Representation Based Variable Selection

PubMed Central

Yang, Su; Shi, Shixiong; Hu, Xiaobing; Wang, Minjie

2015-01-01

Spatial-temporal correlations among the data play an important role in traffic flow prediction. Correspondingly, traffic modeling and prediction based on big data analytics emerges due to the city-scale interactions among traffic flows. A new methodology based on sparse representation is proposed to reveal the spatial-temporal dependencies among traffic flows so as to simplify the correlations among traffic data for the prediction task at a given sensor. Three important findings are observed in the experiments: (1) Only traffic flows immediately prior to the present time affect the formation of current traffic flows, which implies the possibility to reduce the traditional high-order predictors into an 1-order model. (2) The spatial context relevant to a given prediction task is more complex than what is assumed to exist locally and can spread out to the whole city. (3) The spatial context varies with the target sensor undergoing prediction and enlarges with the increment of time lag for prediction. Because the scope of human mobility is subject to travel time, identifying the varying spatial context against time lag is crucial for prediction. Since sparse representation can capture the varying spatial context to adapt to the prediction task, it outperforms the traditional methods the inputs of which are confined as the data from a fixed number of nearby sensors. As the spatial-temporal context for any prediction task is fully detected from the traffic data in an automated manner, where no additional information regarding network topology is needed, it has good scalability to be applicable to large-scale networks. PMID:26496370

Modeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bled, Florent; Sauer, John R.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Doherty, Paul; Royle, J. Andy

2013-01-01

Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

Effects of soil spatial variability at the hillslope and catchment scales on characteristics of rainfall-induced landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Linfeng; Lehmann, Peter; Or, Dani

2016-03-01

Spatial variations in soil properties affect key hydrological processes, yet their role in soil mechanical response to hydro-mechanical loading is rarely considered. This study aims to fill this gap by systematically quantifying effects of spatial variations in soil type and initial water content on rapid rainfall-induced shallow landslide predictions at the hillslope- and catchment-scales. We employed a physically-based landslide triggering model that considers mechanical interactions among soil columns governed by strength thresholds. At the hillslope scale, we found that the emergence of weak regions induced by spatial variations of soil type and initial water content resulted in early triggering of landslides with smaller volumes of released mass relative to a homogeneous slope. At the catchment scale, initial water content was linked to a topographic wetness index, whereas soil type varied deterministically with soil depth considering spatially correlated stochastic components. Results indicate that a strong spatial organization of initial water content delays landslide triggering, whereas spatially linked soil type with soil depth promoted landslide initiation. Increasing the standard deviation and correlation length of the stochastic component of soil type increases landslide volume and hastens onset of landslides. The study illustrates that for similar external boundary conditions and mean soil properties, landslide characteristics vary significantly with soil variability, hence it must be considered for improved landslide model predictions.

Application of spatial Poisson process models to air mass thunderstorm rainfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eagleson, P. S.; Fennessy, N. M.; Wang, Qinliang; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

1987-01-01

Eight years of summer storm rainfall observations from 93 stations in and around the 154 sq km Walnut Gulch catchment of the Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, in Arizona are processed to yield the total station depths of 428 storms. Statistical analysis of these random fields yields the first two moments, the spatial correlation and variance functions, and the spatial distribution of total rainfall for each storm. The absolute and relative worth of three Poisson models are evaluated by comparing their prediction of the spatial distribution of storm rainfall with observations from the second half of the sample. The effect of interstorm parameter variation is examined.

Species distribution models predict temporal but not spatial variation in forest growth.

PubMed

van der Maaten, Ernst; Hamann, Andreas; van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke; Bergsma, Aldo; Hengeveld, Geerten; van Lammeren, Ron; Mohren, Frits; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; Terhürne, Renske; Sterck, Frank

2017-04-01

Bioclimate envelope models have been widely used to illustrate the discrepancy between current species distributions and their potential habitat under climate change. However, the realism and correct interpretation of such projections has been the subject of considerable discussion. Here, we investigate whether climate suitability predictions correlate to tree growth, measured in permanent inventory plots and inferred from tree-ring records. We use the ensemble classifier RandomForest and species occurrence data from ~200,000 inventory plots to build species distribution models for four important European forestry species: Norway spruce, Scots pine, European beech, and pedunculate oak. We then correlate climate-based habitat suitability with volume measurements from ~50-year-old stands, available from ~11,000 inventory plots. Secondly, habitat projections based on annual historical climate are compared with ring width from ~300 tree-ring chronologies. Our working hypothesis is that habitat suitability projections from species distribution models should to some degree be associated with temporal or spatial variation in these growth records. We find that the habitat projections are uncorrelated with spatial growth records (inventory plot data), but they do predict interannual variation in tree-ring width, with an average correlation of .22. Correlation coefficients for individual chronologies range from values as high as .82 or as low as -.31. We conclude that tree responses to projected climate change are highly site-specific and that local suitability of a species for reforestation is difficult to predict. That said, projected increase or decrease in climatic suitability may be interpreted as an average expectation of increased or reduced growth over larger geographic scales.

Medium-range Performance of the Global NWP Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Jang, T.; Kim, J.; Kim, Y.

2017-12-01

The medium-range performance of the global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model in the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) is investigated. The performance is based on the prediction of the extratropical circulation. The mean square error is expressed by sum of spatial variance of discrepancy between forecasts and observations and the square of the mean error (ME). Thus, it is important to investigate the ME effect in order to understand the model performance. The ME is expressed by the subtraction of an anomaly from forecast difference against the real climatology. It is found that the global model suffers from a severe systematic ME in medium-range forecasts. The systematic ME is dominant in the entire troposphere in all months. Such ME can explain at most 25% of root mean square error. We also compare the extratropical ME distribution with that from other NWP centers. NWP models exhibit similar spatial ME structure each other. It is found that the spatial ME pattern is highly correlated to that of an anomaly, implying that the ME varies with seasons. For example, the correlation coefficient between ME and anomaly ranges from -0.51 to -0.85 by months. The pattern of the extratropical circulation also has a high correlation to an anomaly. The global model has trouble in faithfully simulating extratropical cyclones and blockings in the medium-range forecast. In particular, the model has a hard to simulate an anomalous event in medium-range forecasts. If we choose an anomalous period for a test-bed experiment, we will suffer from a large error due to an anomaly.

A multi-scale spatial analysis of native and exotic plant species richness within a mixed-disturbance oak savanna landscape.

PubMed

Schetter, Timothy A; Walters, Timothy L; Root, Karen V

2013-09-01

Impacts of human land use pose an increasing threat to global biodiversity. Resource managers must respond rapidly to this threat by assessing existing natural areas and prioritizing conservation actions across multiple spatial scales. Plant species richness is a useful measure of biodiversity but typically can only be evaluated on small portions of a given landscape. Modeling relationships between spatial heterogeneity and species richness may allow conservation planners to make predictions of species richness patterns within unsampled areas. We utilized a combination of field data, remotely sensed data, and landscape pattern metrics to develop models of native and exotic plant species richness at two spatial extents (60- and 120-m windows) and at four ecological levels for northwestern Ohio's Oak Openings region. Multiple regression models explained 37-77 % of the variation in plant species richness. These models consistently explained more variation in exotic richness than in native richness. Exotic richness was better explained at the 120-m extent while native richness was better explained at the 60-m extent. Land cover composition of the surrounding landscape was an important component of all models. We found that percentage of human-modified land cover (negatively correlated with native richness and positively correlated with exotic richness) was a particularly useful predictor of plant species richness and that human-caused disturbances exert a strong influence on species richness patterns within a mixed-disturbance oak savanna landscape. Our results emphasize the importance of using a multi-scale approach to examine the complex relationships between spatial heterogeneity and plant species richness.

Parameterizing the Spatial Markov Model From Breakthrough Curve Data Alone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherman, Thomas; Fakhari, Abbas; Miller, Savannah; Singha, Kamini; Bolster, Diogo

2017-12-01

The spatial Markov model (SMM) is an upscaled Lagrangian model that effectively captures anomalous transport across a diverse range of hydrologic systems. The distinct feature of the SMM relative to other random walk models is that successive steps are correlated. To date, with some notable exceptions, the model has primarily been applied to data from high-resolution numerical simulations and correlation effects have been measured from simulated particle trajectories. In real systems such knowledge is practically unattainable and the best one might hope for is breakthrough curves (BTCs) at successive downstream locations. We introduce a novel methodology to quantify velocity correlation from BTC data alone. By discretizing two measured BTCs into a set of arrival times and developing an inverse model, we estimate velocity correlation, thereby enabling parameterization of the SMM in studies where detailed Lagrangian velocity statistics are unavailable. The proposed methodology is applied to two synthetic numerical problems, where we measure all details and thus test the veracity of the approach by comparison of estimated parameters with known simulated values. Our results suggest that our estimated transition probabilities agree with simulated values and using the SMM with this estimated parameterization accurately predicts BTCs downstream. Our methodology naturally allows for estimates of uncertainty by calculating lower and upper bounds of velocity correlation, enabling prediction of a range of BTCs. The measured BTCs fall within the range of predicted BTCs. This novel method to parameterize the SMM from BTC data alone is quite parsimonious, thereby widening the SMM's practical applicability.

A hierarchical spatial model of avian abundance with application to Cerulean Warblers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sauer, John R.; Knutson, Melinda G.

2004-01-01

Surveys collecting count data are the primary means by which abundance is indexed for birds. These counts are confounded, however, by nuisance effects including observer effects and spatial correlation between counts. Current methods poorly accommodate both observer and spatial effects because modeling these spatially autocorrelated counts within a hierarchical framework is not practical using standard statistical approaches. We propose a Bayesian approach to this problem and provide as an example of its implementation a spatial model of predicted abundance for the Cerulean Warbler (Dendroica cerulea) in the Prairie-Hardwood Transition of the upper midwestern United States. We used an overdispersed Poisson regression with fixed and random effects, fitted by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We used 21 years of North American Breeding Bird Survey counts as the response in a loglinear function of explanatory variables describing habitat, spatial relatedness, year effects, and observer effects. The model included a conditional autoregressive term representing potential correlation between adjacent route counts. Categories of explanatory habitat variables in the model included land cover composition and configuration, climate, terrain heterogeneity, and human influence. The inherent hierarchy in the model was from counts occurring, in part, as a function of observers within survey routes within years. We found that the percentage of forested wetlands, an index of wetness potential, and an interaction between mean annual precipitation and deciduous forest patch size best described Cerulean Warbler abundance. Based on a map of relative abundance derived from the posterior parameter estimates, we estimated that only 15% of the species' population occurred on federal land, necessitating active engagement of public landowners and state agencies in the conservation of the breeding habitat for this species. Models of this type can be applied to any data in which the response is counts, such as animal counts, activity (e.g.,nest) counts, or species richness. The most noteworthy practical application of this spatial modeling approach is the ability to map relative species abundance. The functional relationships that we elucidated for the Cerulean Warbler provide a basis for the development of management programs and may serve to focus management and monitoring on areas and habitat variables important to Cerulean Warblers.

Generalized Bootstrap Method for Assessment of Uncertainty in Semivariogram Inference

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olea, R.A.; Pardo-Iguzquiza, E.

2011-01-01

The semivariogram and its related function, the covariance, play a central role in classical geostatistics for modeling the average continuity of spatially correlated attributes. Whereas all methods are formulated in terms of the true semivariogram, in practice what can be used are estimated semivariograms and models based on samples. A generalized form of the bootstrap method to properly model spatially correlated data is used to advance knowledge about the reliability of empirical semivariograms and semivariogram models based on a single sample. Among several methods available to generate spatially correlated resamples, we selected a method based on the LU decomposition and used several examples to illustrate the approach. The first one is a synthetic, isotropic, exhaustive sample following a normal distribution, the second example is also a synthetic but following a non-Gaussian random field, and a third empirical sample consists of actual raingauge measurements. Results show wider confidence intervals than those found previously by others with inadequate application of the bootstrap. Also, even for the Gaussian example, distributions for estimated semivariogram values and model parameters are positively skewed. In this sense, bootstrap percentile confidence intervals, which are not centered around the empirical semivariogram and do not require distributional assumptions for its construction, provide an achieved coverage similar to the nominal coverage. The latter cannot be achieved by symmetrical confidence intervals based on the standard error, regardless if the standard error is estimated from a parametric equation or from bootstrap. ?? 2010 International Association for Mathematical Geosciences.

Autocorrelation structure of convective rainfall in semiarid-arid climate derived from high-resolution X-Band radar estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marra, Francesco; Morin, Efrat

2018-02-01

Small scale rainfall variability is a key factor driving runoff response in fast responding systems, such as mountainous, urban and arid catchments. In this paper, the spatial-temporal autocorrelation structure of convective rainfall is derived with extremely high resolutions (60 m, 1 min) using estimates from an X-Band weather radar recently installed in a semiarid-arid area. The 2-dimensional spatial autocorrelation of convective rainfall fields and the temporal autocorrelation of point-wise and distributed rainfall fields are examined. The autocorrelation structures are characterized by spatial anisotropy, correlation distances 1.5-2.8 km and rarely exceeding 5 km, and time-correlation distances 1.8-6.4 min and rarely exceeding 10 min. The observed spatial variability is expected to negatively affect estimates from rain gauges and microwave links rather than satellite and C-/S-Band radars; conversely, the temporal variability is expected to negatively affect remote sensing estimates rather than rain gauges. The presented results provide quantitative information for stochastic weather generators, cloud-resolving models, dryland hydrologic and agricultural models, and multi-sensor merging techniques.

Anomalous transport in disordered fracture networks: Spatial Markov model for dispersion with variable injection modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Peter K.; Dentz, Marco; Le Borgne, Tanguy; Lee, Seunghak; Juanes, Ruben

2017-08-01

We investigate tracer transport on random discrete fracture networks that are characterized by the statistics of the fracture geometry and hydraulic conductivity. While it is well known that tracer transport through fractured media can be anomalous and particle injection modes can have major impact on dispersion, the incorporation of injection modes into effective transport modeling has remained an open issue. The fundamental reason behind this challenge is that-even if the Eulerian fluid velocity is steady-the Lagrangian velocity distribution experienced by tracer particles evolves with time from its initial distribution, which is dictated by the injection mode, to a stationary velocity distribution. We quantify this evolution by a Markov model for particle velocities that are equidistantly sampled along trajectories. This stochastic approach allows for the systematic incorporation of the initial velocity distribution and quantifies the interplay between velocity distribution and spatial and temporal correlation. The proposed spatial Markov model is characterized by the initial velocity distribution, which is determined by the particle injection mode, the stationary Lagrangian velocity distribution, which is derived from the Eulerian velocity distribution, and the spatial velocity correlation length, which is related to the characteristic fracture length. This effective model leads to a time-domain random walk for the evolution of particle positions and velocities, whose joint distribution follows a Boltzmann equation. Finally, we demonstrate that the proposed model can successfully predict anomalous transport through discrete fracture networks with different levels of heterogeneity and arbitrary tracer injection modes.

Continuous rainfall simulation for regional flood risk assessment - application in the Austrian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, Jose Luis; Nester, Thomas; Komma, Jürgen; Blöschl, Günter

2017-04-01

Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations. The correct reproduction of the observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional intensity-duration-frequency curves, is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and frequency of the flood peaks. Furthermore, the replication of the observed rainfall spatial and temporal correlations allows to model important other hydrological features like antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events. In this work, we present an application in the Tirol region (Austrian alps) of a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is modeled on a station basis as a mutivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space, and then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space. For the sake of simplicity, the parameters of the Gamma distributions are assumed to vary monthly according to a sinusoidal function, and are calibrated trying to simultaneously reproduce i) mean annual rainfall, ii) mean daily rainfall amounts, iii) standard deviations of daily rainfall amounts, and iv) 24-hours intensity duration frequency curve. The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is performed in a way that the intensity-duration-frequency curves aggregated at different spatial and temporal scales reproduce the measured ones. Bardossy, A., and E. J. Plate (1992), Space-time model for daily rainfall using atmospheric circulation patterns, Water Resour. Res., 28(5), 1247-1259, doi:10.1029/91WR02589.

Structured Spatial Modeling and Mapping of Domestic Violence Against Women of Reproductive Age in Rwanda.

PubMed

Habyarimana, Faustin; Zewotir, Temesgen; Ramroop, Shaun

2018-03-01

The main objective of this study was to assess the risk factors and spatial correlates of domestic violence against women of reproductive age in Rwanda. A structured spatial approach was used to account for the nonlinear nature of some covariates and the spatial variability on domestic violence. The nonlinear effect was modeled through second-order random walk, and the structured spatial effect was modeled through Gaussian Markov Random Fields specified as an intrinsic conditional autoregressive model. The data from the Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey 2014/2015 were used as an application. The findings of this study revealed that the risk factors of domestic violence against women are the wealth quintile of the household, the size of the household, the husband or partner's age, the husband or partner's level of education, ownership of the house, polygamy, the alcohol consumption status of the husband or partner, the woman's perception of wife-beating attitude, and the use of contraceptive methods. The study also highlighted the significant spatial variation of domestic violence against women at district level.

Selecting a separable parametric spatiotemporal covariance structure for longitudinal imaging data.

PubMed

George, Brandon; Aban, Inmaculada

2015-01-15

Longitudinal imaging studies allow great insight into how the structure and function of a subject's internal anatomy changes over time. Unfortunately, the analysis of longitudinal imaging data is complicated by inherent spatial and temporal correlation: the temporal from the repeated measures and the spatial from the outcomes of interest being observed at multiple points in a patient's body. We propose the use of a linear model with a separable parametric spatiotemporal error structure for the analysis of repeated imaging data. The model makes use of spatial (exponential, spherical, and Matérn) and temporal (compound symmetric, autoregressive-1, Toeplitz, and unstructured) parametric correlation functions. A simulation study, inspired by a longitudinal cardiac imaging study on mitral regurgitation patients, compared different information criteria for selecting a particular separable parametric spatiotemporal correlation structure as well as the effects on types I and II error rates for inference on fixed effects when the specified model is incorrect. Information criteria were found to be highly accurate at choosing between separable parametric spatiotemporal correlation structures. Misspecification of the covariance structure was found to have the ability to inflate the type I error or have an overly conservative test size, which corresponded to decreased power. An example with clinical data is given illustrating how the covariance structure procedure can be performed in practice, as well as how covariance structure choice can change inferences about fixed effects. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Progress on Discrete Fracture Network models with implications on the predictions of permeability and flow channeling structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darcel, C.; Davy, P.; Le Goc, R.; Maillot, J.; Selroos, J. O.

2017-12-01

We present progress on Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) flow modeling, including realistic advanced DFN spatial structures and local fracture transmissivity properties, through an application to the Forsmark site in Sweden. DFN models are a framework to combine fracture datasets from different sources and scales and to interpolate them in combining statistical distributions and stereological relations. The resulting DFN upscaling function - size density distribution - is a model component key to extrapolating fracture size densities between data gaps, from borehole core up to site scale. Another important feature of DFN models lays in the spatial correlations between fractures, with still unevaluated consequences on flow predictions. Indeed, although common Poisson (i.e. spatially random) models are widely used, they do not reflect these geological evidences for more complex structures. To model them, we define a DFN growth process from kinematic rules for nucleation, growth and stopping conditions. It mimics in a simplified way the geological fracturing processes and produces DFN characteristics -both upscaling function and spatial correlations- fully consistent with field observations. DFN structures are first compared for constant transmissivities. Flow simulations for the kinematic and equivalent Poisson DFN models show striking differences: with the kinematic DFN, connectivity and permeability are significantly smaller, down to a difference of one order of magnitude, and flow is much more channelized. Further flow analyses are performed with more realistic transmissivity distribution conditions (sealed parts, relations to fracture sizes, orientations and in-situ stress field). The relative importance of the overall DFN structure in the final flow predictions is discussed.

Balanced Cortical Microcircuitry for Spatial Working Memory Based on Corrective Feedback Control

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

A hallmark of working memory is the ability to maintain graded representations of both the spatial location and amplitude of a memorized stimulus. Previous work has identified a neural correlate of spatial working memory in the persistent maintenance of spatially specific patterns of neural activity. How such activity is maintained by neocortical circuits remains unknown. Traditional models of working memory maintain analog representations of either the spatial location or the amplitude of a stimulus, but not both. Furthermore, although most previous models require local excitation and lateral inhibition to maintain spatially localized persistent activity stably, the substrate for lateral inhibitory feedback pathways is unclear. Here, we suggest an alternative model for spatial working memory that is capable of maintaining analog representations of both the spatial location and amplitude of a stimulus, and that does not rely on long-range feedback inhibition. The model consists of a functionally columnar network of recurrently connected excitatory and inhibitory neural populations. When excitation and inhibition are balanced in strength but offset in time, drifts in activity trigger spatially specific negative feedback that corrects memory decay. The resulting networks can temporally integrate inputs at any spatial location, are robust against many commonly considered perturbations in network parameters, and, when implemented in a spiking model, generate irregular neural firing characteristic of that observed experimentally during persistent activity. This work suggests balanced excitatory–inhibitory memory circuits implementing corrective negative feedback as a substrate for spatial working memory. PMID:24828633

Spatial analysis of highway incident durations in the context of Hurricane Sandy.

PubMed

Xie, Kun; Ozbay, Kaan; Yang, Hong

2015-01-01

The objectives of this study are (1) to develop an incident duration model which can account for the spatial dependence of duration observations, and (2) to investigate the impacts of a hurricane on incident duration. Highway incident data from New York City and its surrounding regions before and after Hurricane Sandy was used for the study. Moran's I statistics confirmed that durations of the neighboring incidents were spatially correlated. Moreover, Lagrange Multiplier tests suggested that the spatial dependence should be captured in a spatial lag specification. A spatial error model, a spatial lag model and a standard model without consideration of spatial effects were developed. The spatial lag model is found to outperform the others by capturing the spatial dependence of incident durations via a spatially lagged dependent variable. It was further used to assess the effects of hurricane-related variables on incident duration. The results show that the incidents during and post the hurricane are expected to have 116.3% and 79.8% longer durations than those that occurred in the regular time. However, no significant increase in incident duration is observed in the evacuation period before Sandy's landfall. Results of temporal stability tests further confirm the existence of the significant changes in incident duration patterns during and post the hurricane. Those findings can provide insights to aid in the development of hurricane evacuation plans and emergency management strategies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.

2018-02-01

Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex Ginzburg-Landau equation. Multiple-species extensions to general ‘food networks’ can be classified on the mean-field level, providing both fundamental understanding of ensuing cooperativity and profound insight into the rich spatio-temporal features and coarsening kinetics in the corresponding spatially extended systems. Novel space-time patterns emerge as a result of the formation of competing alliances; e.g. coarsening domains that each incorporate rock-paper-scissors competition games.

Impact of spatial variability and sampling design on model performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrape, Charlotte; Schneider, Anne-Kathrin; Schröder, Boris; van Schaik, Loes

2017-04-01

Many environmental physical and chemical parameters as well as species distributions display a spatial variability at different scales. In case measurements are very costly in labour time or money a choice has to be made between a high sampling resolution at small scales and a low spatial cover of the study area or a lower sampling resolution at the small scales resulting in local data uncertainties with a better spatial cover of the whole area. This dilemma is often faced in the design of field sampling campaigns for large scale studies. When the gathered field data are subsequently used for modelling purposes the choice of sampling design and resulting data quality influence the model performance criteria. We studied this influence with a virtual model study based on a large dataset of field information on spatial variation of earthworms at different scales. Therefore we built a virtual map of anecic earthworm distributions over the Weiherbach catchment (Baden-Württemberg in Germany). First of all the field scale abundance of earthworms was estimated using a catchment scale model based on 65 field measurements. Subsequently the high small scale variability was added using semi-variograms, based on five fields with a total of 430 measurements divided in a spatially nested sampling design over these fields, to estimate the nugget, range and standard deviation of measurements within the fields. With the produced maps, we performed virtual samplings of one up to 50 random points per field. We then used these data to rebuild the catchment scale models of anecic earthworm abundance with the same model parameters as in the work by Palm et al. (2013). The results of the models show clearly that a large part of the non-explained deviance of the models is due to the very high small scale variability in earthworm abundance: the models based on single virtual sampling points on average obtain an explained deviance of 0.20 and a correlation coefficient of 0.64. With increasing sampling points per field, we averaged the measured abundance of the sampling within each field to obtain a more representative value of the field average. Doubling the samplings per field strongly improved the model performance criteria (explained deviance 0.38 and correlation coefficient 0.73). With 50 sampling points per field the performance criteria were 0.91 and 0.97 respectively for explained deviance and correlation coefficient. The relationship between number of samplings and performance criteria can be described with a saturation curve. Beyond five samples per field the model improvement becomes rather small. With this contribution we wish to discuss the impact of data variability at sampling scale on model performance and the implications for sampling design and assessment of model results as well as ecological inferences.

The Role of Auxiliary Variables in Deterministic and Deterministic-Stochastic Spatial Models of Air Temperature in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

2017-02-01

Our study examines the role of auxiliary variables in the process of spatial modelling and mapping of climatological elements, with air temperature in Poland used as an example. The multivariable algorithms are the most frequently applied for spatialization of air temperature, and their results in many studies are proved to be better in comparison to those obtained by various one-dimensional techniques. In most of the previous studies, two main strategies were used to perform multidimensional spatial interpolation of air temperature. First, it was accepted that all variables significantly correlated with air temperature should be incorporated into the model. Second, it was assumed that the more spatial variation of air temperature was deterministically explained, the better was the quality of spatial interpolation. The main goal of the paper was to examine both above-mentioned assumptions. The analysis was performed using data from 250 meteorological stations and for 69 air temperature cases aggregated on different levels: from daily means to 10-year annual mean. Two cases were considered for detailed analysis. The set of potential auxiliary variables covered 11 environmental predictors of air temperature. Another purpose of the study was to compare the results of interpolation given by various multivariable methods using the same set of explanatory variables. Two regression models: multiple linear (MLR) and geographically weighted (GWR) method, as well as their extensions to the regression-kriging form, MLRK and GWRK, respectively, were examined. Stepwise regression was used to select variables for the individual models and the cross-validation method was used to validate the results with a special attention paid to statistically significant improvement of the model using the mean absolute error (MAE) criterion. The main results of this study led to rejection of both assumptions considered. Usually, including more than two or three of the most significantly correlated auxiliary variables does not improve the quality of the spatial model. The effects of introduction of certain variables into the model were not climatologically justified and were seen on maps as unexpected and undesired artefacts. The results confirm, in accordance with previous studies, that in the case of air temperature distribution, the spatial process is non-stationary; thus, the local GWR model performs better than the global MLR if they are specified using the same set of auxiliary variables. If only GWR residuals are autocorrelated, the geographically weighted regression-kriging (GWRK) model seems to be optimal for air temperature spatial interpolation.

Laboratory simulation of atmospheric turbulence induced optical wavefront distortion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Travis Shane

1999-11-01

Many creative approaches have been taken in the past for simulating the effect that atmospheric turbulence has on optical beams. Most of the experimental architectures have been complicated and consisted of many optical elements as well as moving components. These techniques have shown a modicum of success; however, they are not completely controllable or predictable. A benchtop technique for experimentally producing one important effect that atmospheric turbulence has on optical beams (phase distortion) is presented here. The system is completely controllable and predictable while accurately representing the statistical nature of the problem. Previous experimentation in optical processing through turbulent media has demonstrated that optical wavefront distortions can be produced via spatial light modulating (SLM) devices, and most turbulence models and experimental results indicate that turbulence can be represented as a phase fluctuation. The amplitude distributions in the resulting far field are primarily due to propagation of the phase. Operating a liquid crystal television (LCTV) in the ``phase- mostly'' mode, a phase fluctuation type model for turbulence is utilized in the present investigation, and a real-time experiment for demonstrating the effects was constructed. For an optical system to simulate optical wavefront distortions due to atmospheric turbulence, the following are required: (1)An optical element that modulates the phasefront of an optical beam (2)A model and a technique for generating spatially correlated turbulence simulating distributions (3)Hardware and software for displaying and manipulating the information addressing the optical phase modulation device The LCTV is ideal for this application. When operated in the ``phase-mostly'' mode some LCTVs can modulate the phasefront of an optical beam by as much as 2π and an algorithm for generating spatially correlated phase screens can be constructed via mathematical modeling software such as Mathcad[2]. The phase screens can then be manipulated and displayed on the LCTV using a computer with an appropriate framegrabber and software. The present system consists of an Epson liquid crystal television (which was optimized to modulate up to 2π of phase), a Macintosh IIci with a framegrabber card, a QuickTime movie consisting of multiple video frames of two dimensional arrays of spatially correlated grayscale images, and two polarizers. The movie is displayed on the television via the framegrabber, and the polarizers are used to operate the television in a mode that mostly modulates the spatial phase distribution of the optical wavefront. The frames of the movie are created using an accepted turbulence model for spatially correlated variations in index of refraction, and each subsequent frame of the movie is calculated following an accepted model for temporally varying turbulence. The model used for generating spatial functions or ``phase screens'' which simulate turbulence is the well known Kolmogorov model. These ``phase screens'' are then used, employing a Taylor's frozen flow model, to simulate temporally varying turbulence. A single ``phase screen'' is given a random velocity vector between 0 and.55 meters per second to simulate temporally varying turbulence. The system is used to distort optical beams as if the beams had propagated through a long pathlength of wavefront distorting medium, such as the atmosphere.

Cross-comparison and evaluation of air pollution field estimation methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Haofei; Russell, Armistead; Mulholland, James; Odman, Talat; Hu, Yongtao; Chang, Howard H.; Kumar, Naresh

2018-04-01

Accurate estimates of human exposure is critical for air pollution health studies and a variety of methods are currently being used to assign pollutant concentrations to populations. Results from these methods may differ substantially, which can affect the outcomes of health impact assessments. Here, we applied 14 methods for developing spatiotemporal air pollutant concentration fields of eight pollutants to the Atlanta, Georgia region. These methods include eight methods relying mostly on air quality observations (CM: central monitor; SA: spatial average; IDW: inverse distance weighting; KRIG: kriging; TESS-D: discontinuous tessellation; TESS-NN: natural neighbor tessellation with interpolation; LUR: land use regression; AOD: downscaled satellite-derived aerosol optical depth), one using the RLINE dispersion model, and five methods using a chemical transport model (CMAQ), with and without using observational data to constrain results. The derived fields were evaluated and compared. Overall, all methods generally perform better at urban than rural area, and for secondary than primary pollutants. We found the CM and SA methods may be appropriate only for small domains, and for secondary pollutants, though the SA method lead to large negative spatial correlations when using data withholding for PM2.5 (spatial correlation coefficient R = -0.81). The TESS-D method was found to have major limitations. Results of the IDW, KRIG and TESS-NN methods are similar. They are found to be better suited for secondary pollutants because of their satisfactory temporal performance (e.g. average temporal R2 > 0.85 for PM2.5 but less than 0.35 for primary pollutant NO2). In addition, they are suitable for areas with relatively dense monitoring networks due to their inability to capture spatial concentration variabilities, as indicated by the negative spatial R (lower than -0.2 for PM2.5 when assessed using data withholding). The performance of LUR and AOD methods were similar to kriging. Using RLINE and CMAQ fields without fusing observational data led to substantial errors and biases, though the CMAQ model captured spatial gradients reasonably well (spatial R = 0.45 for PM2.5). Two unique tests conducted here included quantifying autocorrelation of method biases (which can be important in time series analyses) and how well the methods capture the observed interspecies correlations (which would be of particular importance in multipollutant health assessments). Autocorrelation of method biases lasted longest and interspecies correlations of primary pollutants was higher than observations when air quality models were used without data fusing. Use of hybrid methods that combine air quality model outputs with observational data overcome some of these limitations and is better suited for health studies. Results from this study contribute to better understanding the strengths and weaknesses of different methods for estimating human exposures.

Spatiotemporal correlation structure of the Earth's surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fredriksen, Hege-Beate; Rypdal, Kristoffer; Rypdal, Martin

2015-04-01

We investigate the spatiotemporal temperature variability for several gridded instrumental and climate model data sets. The temporal variability is analysed by estimating the power spectral density and studying the differences between local and global temperatures, land and sea, and among local temperature records at different locations. The spatiotemporal correlation structure is analysed through cross-spectra that allow us to compute frequency-dependent spatial autocorrelation functions (ACFs). Our results are then compared to theoretical spectra and frequency-dependent spatial ACFs derived from a fractional stochastic-diffusive energy balance model (FEBM). From the FEBM we expect both local and global temperatures to have a long-range persistent temporal behaviour, and the spectral exponent (β) is expected to increase by a factor of two when going from local to global scales. Our comparison of the average local spectrum and the global spectrum shows good agreement with this model, although the FEBM has so far only been studied for a pure land planet and a pure ocean planet, respectively, with no seasonal forcing. Hence it cannot capture the substantial variability among the local spectra, in particular between the spectra for land and sea, and for equatorial and non-equatorial temperatures. Both models and observation data show that land temperatures in general have a low persistence, while sea surface temperatures show a higher, and also more variable degree of persistence. Near the equator the spectra deviate from the power-law shape expected from the FEBM. Instead we observe large variability at time scales of a few years due to ENSO, and a flat spectrum at longer time scales, making the spectrum more reminiscent of that of a red noise process. From the frequency-dependent spatial ACFs we observe that the spatial correlation length increases with increasing time scale, which is also consistent with the FEBM. One consequence of this is that longer-lasting structures must also be wider in space. The spatial correlation length is also observed to be longer for land than for sea. The climate model simulations studied are mainly CMIP5 control runs of length 500-1000 yr. On time scales up to several centuries we do not observe that the difference between the local and global spectral exponents vanish. This also follows from the FEBM and shows that the dynamics is spatiotemporal (not just temporal) even on these time scales.

Beyond mean-field approximations for accurate and computationally efficient models of on-lattice chemical kinetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pineda, M.; Stamatakis, M.

2017-07-01

Modeling the kinetics of surface catalyzed reactions is essential for the design of reactors and chemical processes. The majority of microkinetic models employ mean-field approximations, which lead to an approximate description of catalytic kinetics by assuming spatially uncorrelated adsorbates. On the other hand, kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) methods provide a discrete-space continuous-time stochastic formulation that enables an accurate treatment of spatial correlations in the adlayer, but at a significant computation cost. In this work, we use the so-called cluster mean-field approach to develop higher order approximations that systematically increase the accuracy of kinetic models by treating spatial correlations at a progressively higher level of detail. We further demonstrate our approach on a reduced model for NO oxidation incorporating first nearest-neighbor lateral interactions and construct a sequence of approximations of increasingly higher accuracy, which we compare with KMC and mean-field. The latter is found to perform rather poorly, overestimating the turnover frequency by several orders of magnitude for this system. On the other hand, our approximations, while more computationally intense than the traditional mean-field treatment, still achieve tremendous computational savings compared to KMC simulations, thereby opening the way for employing them in multiscale modeling frameworks.

Spatial analysis of soybean canopy response to soybean cyst nematodes (Heterodera glycines) in eastern Arkansas: An approach to future precision agriculture technology application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulkarni, Subodh

2008-10-01

Heterodera glycines Ichinohe, commonly known as soybean cyst nematode (SCN) is a serious widespread pathogen of soybean in the US. Present research primarily investigated feasibility of detecting SCN infestation in the field using aerial images and ground level spectrometric sensing. Non-spatial and spatial linear regression analyses were performed to correlate SCN population densities with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Green NDVI (GNDVI) derived from soybean canopy spectra. Field data were obtained from two fields; Field A and B under different nematode control strategies in 2003 and 2004. Analysis of aerial image data from July 18, 2004 from the Field A showed a significant relationship between SCN population at planting and the GNDVI (R2=0.17 at p=0.0006). Linear regression analysis revealed that SCN had a little effect on yield (R2 =0.14, at p=0.0001, RMSEP=1052.42 kg ha-1) and GNDVI (R 2=0.17 at p=0.0006, RMSEP=0.087) derived from the aerial imagery on a single date. However, the spatial regression analysis based on spherical semivariogram showed that the RMSEP was 0.037 for the GNDVI on July 18, 2004 and 427.32 kg ha-1 for yield on October 14, 2003 indicating better model performance. For July 18, 2004 data from Field B, a relationship between NDVI and the cyst counts at planting was significant (R2=0.5 at p=0.0468). Non-spatial analyses of the ground level spectrometric data for the first field showed that NDVI and GNDVI were correlated with cyst counts at planting (R 2=0.34 and 0.27 at p=0.0015 and 0.0127, respectively), and GNDVI was correlated with eggs count at planting (R2= 0.27 at p=0.0118). Both NDVI and GNDVI were correlated with egg counts at flowering (R 2=0.34 and 0.27 at p=0.0013 and 0.0018, respectively). However, paired T test to validate the above relationships showed that, predicted values of NDVI and GNDVI were significantly different. The statistical evidences suggested that variability in vegetation indices was caused by SCN infestation. Comparison of estimators such as -2 RLL, AIC, and BIC of non-spatial and spatial models affirmed that incorporating spatial covariance structure of observations improved model performances. These results demonstrated a limited potential of aerial imaging and ground level spectrometry for detecting nematode infestation in the field. However, it is strongly recommended that more multisite-multiyear trials must be performed to establish and validate empirical models to quantify SCN population densities and their impact on soybean canopy reflectance.

Large scale snow water status monitoring: comparison of different snow water products in the upper Colorado basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Artan, G.A.; Verdin, J.P.; Lietzow, R.

2013-01-01

We illustrate the ability to monitor the status of snowpack over large areas by using a~spatially distributed snow accumulation and ablation model in the Upper Colorado Basin. The model was forced with precipitation fields from the National Weather Service (NWS) Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) datasets; remaining meteorological model input data was from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) model output fields. The simulated snow water equivalent (SWE) was compared to SWEs from the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) and SNOwpack TELemetry system (SNOTEL) over a~region of the Western United States that covers parts of the Upper Colorado Basin. We also compared the SWE product estimated from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) to the SNODAS and SNOTEL SWE datasets. Agreement between the spatial distribution of the simulated SWE with both SNODAS and SNOTEL was high for the two model runs for the entire snow accumulation period. Model-simulated SWEs, both with MPE and TRMM, were significantly correlated spatially on average with the SNODAS (r = 0.81 and r = 0.54; d.f. = 543) and the SNOTEL SWE (r = 0.85 and r = 0.55; d.f. = 543), when monthly basinwide simulated average SWE the correlation was also highly significant (r = 0.95 and r = 0.73; d.f. = 12). The SWE estimated from the passive microwave imagery was not correlated either with the SNODAS SWE or (r = 0.14, d.f. = 7) SNOTEL-reported SWE values (r = 0.08, d.f. = 7). The agreement between modeled SWE and the SWE recorded by SNODAS and SNOTEL weakened during the snowmelt period due to an underestimation bias of the air temperature that was used as model input forcing.

Extinction threshold for spatial forest dynamics with height structure.

PubMed

Garcia-Domingo, Josep L; Saldaña, Joan

2011-05-07

We present a pair-approximation model for spatial forest dynamics defined on a regular lattice. The model assumes three possible states for a lattice site: empty (gap site), occupied by an immature tree, and occupied by a mature tree, and considers three nonlinearities in the dynamics associated to the processes of light interference, gap expansion, and recruitment. We obtain an expression of the basic reproduction number R(0) which, in contrast to the one obtained under the mean-field approach, uses information about the spatial arrangement of individuals close to extinction. Moreover, we analyze the corresponding survival-extinction transition of the forest and the spatial correlations among gaps, immature and mature trees close to this critical point. Predictions of the pair-approximation model are compared with those of a cellular automaton. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A spectral method for spatial downscaling | Science Inventory ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Complex computer models play a crucial role in air quality research. These models are used to evaluate potential regulatory impacts of emission control strategies and to estimate air quality in areas without monitoring data. For both of these purposes, it is important to calibrate model output with monitoring data to adjust for model biases and improve spatial prediction. In this paper, we propose a new spectral method to study and exploit complex relationships between model output and monitoring data. Spectral methods allow us to estimate the relationship between model output and monitoring data separately at different spatial scales, and to use model output for prediction only at the appropriate scales. The proposed method is computationally efficient and can be implemented using standard software. We apply the method to compare Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model output with ozone measurements in the United States in July, 2005. We find that CMAQ captures large-scale spatial trends, but has low correlation with the monitoring data at small spatial scales. The National Exposure Research Laboratory′s (NERL′s)Atmospheric Modeling Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA′s mission to protect human health and the environment. AMAD′s research program is engaged in developing and evaluating predictive atmospheric models on all spatial and temporal scales for forecasting the Nation′s air quality and for assessing ch

Spatial mismatch analysis among hotspots of alien plant species, road and railway networks in Germany and Austria

PubMed Central

Morelli, Federico

2017-01-01

Road and railway networks are pervasive elements of all environments, which have expanded intensively over the last century in all European countries. These transportation infrastructures have major impacts on the surrounding landscape, representing a threat to biodiversity. Roadsides and railways may function as corridors for dispersal of alien species in fragmented landscapes. However, only few studies have explored the spread of invasive species in relationship to transport network at large spatial scales. We performed a spatial mismatch analysis, based on a spatially explicit correlation test, to investigate whether alien plant species hotspots in Germany and Austria correspond to areas of high density of roads and railways. We tested this independently of the effects of dominant environments in each spatial unit, in order to focus just on the correlation between occurrence of alien species and density of linear transportation infrastructures. We found a significant spatial association between alien plant species hotspots distribution and roads and railways density in both countries. As expected, anthropogenic landscapes, such as urban areas, harbored more alien plant species, followed by water bodies. However, our findings suggested that the distribution of neobiota is strongest correlated to road/railways density than to land use composition. This study provides new evidence, from a transnational scale, that alien plants can use roadsides and rail networks as colonization corridors. Furthermore, our approach contributes to the understanding on alien plant species distribution at large spatial scale by the combination with spatial modeling procedures. PMID:28829818

GIS-based spatial regression and prediction of water quality in river networks: A case study in Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yang, X.; Jin, W.

2010-01-01

Nonpoint source pollution is the leading cause of the U.S.'s water quality problems. One important component of nonpoint source pollution control is an understanding of what and how watershed-scale conditions influence ambient water quality. This paper investigated the use of spatial regression to evaluate the impacts of watershed characteristics on stream NO3NO2-N concentration in the Cedar River Watershed, Iowa. An Arc Hydro geodatabase was constructed to organize various datasets on the watershed. Spatial regression models were developed to evaluate the impacts of watershed characteristics on stream NO3NO2-N concentration and predict NO3NO2-N concentration at unmonitored locations. Unlike the traditional ordinary least square (OLS) method, the spatial regression method incorporates the potential spatial correlation among the observations in its coefficient estimation. Study results show that NO3NO2-N observations in the Cedar River Watershed are spatially correlated, and by ignoring the spatial correlation, the OLS method tends to over-estimate the impacts of watershed characteristics on stream NO3NO2-N concentration. In conjunction with kriging, the spatial regression method not only makes better stream NO3NO2-N concentration predictions than the OLS method, but also gives estimates of the uncertainty of the predictions, which provides useful information for optimizing the design of stream monitoring network. It is a promising tool for better managing and controlling nonpoint source pollution. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Functional imaging of the nonhuman primate Placenta with endogenous blood oxygen level-dependent contrast.

PubMed

Schabel, M C; Roberts, V H J; Lo, J O; Platt, S; Grant, K A; Frias, A E; Kroenke, C D

2016-11-01

To characterize spatial patterns of T2* in the placenta of the rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta), to correlate these patterns with placental perfusion determined using dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI), and to evaluate the potential for using the blood oxygen level-dependent effect to quantify placental perfusion without the use of exogenous contrast reagent. MRI was performed on three pregnant rhesus macaques at gestational day 110. Multiecho spoiled gradient echo measurements were used to compute maps of T2*. Spatial maxima in these maps were compared with foci of early enhancement determined by DCE-MRI. Local maxima in T2* maps were strongly correlated with spiral arteries identified by DCE-MRI, with mean spatial separations ranging from 2.34 to 6.11 mm in the three animals studied. Spatial patterns of R2* ( = 1/ T2*) within individual placental lobules can be quantitatively analyzed using a simple model to estimate fetal arterial oxyhemoglobin concentration [Hbo,f] and a parameter viPS/Φ, reflecting oxygen transport to the fetus. Estimated mean values of [Hbo,f] ranged from 4.25 mM to 4.46 mM, whereas viPS/Φ ranged from 2.80 × 10 5 cm -3 to 1.61 × 10 6 cm -3 . Maternal spiral arteries show strong spatial correlation with foci of extended T2* observed in the primate placenta. A simple model of oxygen transport accurately describes the spatial dependence of R2* within placental lobules and enables assessment of placental function and oxygenation without requiring administration of an exogenous contrast reagent. Magn Reson Med 76:1551-1562, 2016. © 2015 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2015 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Fractal properties of background noise and target signal enhancement using CSEM data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benavides, Alfonso; Everett, Mark E.; Pierce, Carl; Nguyen, Cam

2003-09-01

Controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) spatial profiles and 2-D conductivity maps were obtained on the Brazos Valley, TX floodplain to study the fractal statistics of geological signals and effects of man-made conductive targets using Geonics EM34, EM31 and EM63. Using target-free areas, a consistent power-law power spectrum (|A(k)| ~ k ^-β) for the profiles was found with β values typical of fractional Brownian motion (fBm). This means that the spatial variation of conductivity does not correspond to Gaussian statistics, where there are spatial correlations at different scales. The presence of targets tends to flatten the power-law power spectrum (PS) at small wavenumbers. Detection and localization of targets can be achieved using short-time Fourier transform (STFT). The presence of targets is enhanced because the signal energy is spread to higher wavenumbers (small scale numbers) in the positions occupied by the targets. In the case of poor spatial sampling or small amount of data, the information available from the power spectrum is not enough to separate spatial correlations from target signatures. Advantages are gained by using the spatial correlations of the fBm in order to reject the background response, and to enhance the signals from highly conductive targets. This approach was tested for the EM31 using a pre-processing step that combines apparent conductivity readings from two perpendicular transmitter-receiver orientations at each station. The response obtained using time-domain CSEM is influence to a lesser degree by geological noise and the target response can be processed to recover target features. The homotopy method is proposed to solve the inverse problem using a set of possible target models and a dynamic library of responses used to optimize the starting model.

Nonequilibrium relaxations within the ground-state manifold in the antiferromagnetic Ising model on a triangular lattice.

PubMed

Kim, Eunhye; Lee, Sung Jong; Kim, Bongsoo

2007-02-01

We present an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study on the nonequilibrium kinetics of triangular antiferromagnetic Ising model within the ground state ensemble which consists of sectors, each of which is characterized by a unique value of the string density p through a dimer covering method. Building upon our recent work [Phys. Rev. E 68, 066127 (2003)] where we considered the nonequilibrium relaxation observed within the dominant sector with p=2/3, we here focus on the nonequilibrium kinetics within the minor sectors with p<2/3. The initial configurations are chosen as those in which the strings are straight and evenly distributed. In the minor sectors, we observe a characteristic spatial anisotropy in both equilibrium and nonequilibrium spatial correlations. We observe emergence of a critical relaxation region (in the spatial and temporal domain) which grows as p deviates from p=2/3. Spatial anisotropy appears in the equilibrium spatial correlation with the characteristic length scale xi(e,V)(p) diverging with vanishing string density as xi(e,V)(p) approximately p(-2) along the vertical direction, while along the horizontal direction the spatial length scale diverges as xi(e,H) approximately p(-1). Analytic forms for the anisotropic equilibrium correlation functions are given. We also find that the spin autocorrelation function A(t) shows a simple scaling behavior A(t)=A(t/tau(A)(p)), where the time scale tau(A)(p) shows a power-law divergence with vanishing p as tau(A)(p) approximately p(-phi) with phi approximately or equal to 4. These features can be understood in terms of random walk nature of the fluctuations of the strings within the typical separation between neighboring strings.

Geo-additive modelling of malaria in Burundi

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Malaria is a major public health issue in Burundi in terms of both morbidity and mortality, with around 2.5 million clinical cases and more than 15,000 deaths each year. It is still the single main cause of mortality in pregnant women and children below five years of age. Because of the severe health and economic burden of malaria, there is still a growing need for methods that will help to understand the influencing factors. Several studies/researches have been done on the subject yielding different results as which factors are most responsible for the increase in malaria transmission. This paper considers the modelling of the dependence of malaria cases on spatial determinants and climatic covariates including rainfall, temperature and humidity in Burundi. Methods The analysis carried out in this work exploits real monthly data collected in the area of Burundi over 12 years (1996-2007). Semi-parametric regression models are used. The spatial analysis is based on a geo-additive model using provinces as the geographic units of study. The spatial effect is split into structured (correlated) and unstructured (uncorrelated) components. Inference is fully Bayesian and uses Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. The effects of the continuous covariates are modelled by cubic p-splines with 20 equidistant knots and second order random walk penalty. For the spatially correlated effect, Markov random field prior is chosen. The spatially uncorrelated effects are assumed to be i.i.d. Gaussian. The effects of climatic covariates and the effects of other spatial determinants are estimated simultaneously in a unified regression framework. Results The results obtained from the proposed model suggest that although malaria incidence in a given month is strongly positively associated with the minimum temperature of the previous months, regional patterns of malaria that are related to factors other than climatic variables have been identified, without being able to explain them. Conclusions In this paper, semiparametric models are used to model the effects of both climatic covariates and spatial effects on malaria distribution in Burundi. The results obtained from the proposed models suggest a strong positive association between malaria incidence in a given month and the minimum temperature of the previous month. From the spatial effects, important spatial patterns of malaria that are related to factors other than climatic variables are identified. Potential explanations (factors) could be related to socio-economic conditions, food shortage, limited access to health care service, precarious housing, promiscuity, poor hygienic conditions, limited access to drinking water, land use (rice paddies for example), displacement of the population (due to armed conflicts). PMID:21835010

A resampling procedure for generating conditioned daily weather sequences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Martyn P.; Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Brandon, David; Werner, Kevin; Hay, Lauren E.; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Yates, David

2004-01-01

A method is introduced to generate conditioned daily precipitation and temperature time series at multiple stations. The method resamples data from the historical record “nens” times for the period of interest (nens = number of ensemble members) and reorders the ensemble members to reconstruct the observed spatial (intersite) and temporal correlation statistics. The weather generator model is applied to 2307 stations in the contiguous United States and is shown to reproduce the observed spatial correlation between neighboring stations, the observed correlation between variables (e.g., between precipitation and temperature), and the observed temporal correlation between subsequent days in the generated weather sequence. The weather generator model is extended to produce sequences of weather that are conditioned on climate indices (in this case the Niño 3.4 index). Example illustrations of conditioned weather sequences are provided for a station in Arizona (Petrified Forest, 34.8°N, 109.9°W), where El Niño and La Niña conditions have a strong effect on winter precipitation. The conditioned weather sequences generated using the methods described in this paper are appropriate for use as input to hydrologic models to produce multiseason forecasts of streamflow.

Perception of differences in naturalistic dynamic scenes, and a V1-based model.

PubMed

To, Michelle P S; Gilchrist, Iain D; Tolhurst, David J

2015-01-16

We investigate whether a computational model of V1 can predict how observers rate perceptual differences between paired movie clips of natural scenes. Observers viewed 198 pairs of movies clips, rating how different the two clips appeared to them on a magnitude scale. Sixty-six of the movie pairs were naturalistic and those remaining were low-pass or high-pass spatially filtered versions of those originals. We examined three ways of comparing a movie pair. The Spatial Model compared corresponding frames between each movie pairwise, combining those differences using Minkowski summation. The Temporal Model compared successive frames within each movie, summed those differences for each movie, and then compared the overall differences between the paired movies. The Ordered-Temporal Model combined elements from both models, and yielded the single strongest predictions of observers' ratings. We modeled naturalistic sustained and transient impulse functions and compared frames directly with no temporal filtering. Overall, modeling naturalistic temporal filtering improved the models' performance; in particular, the predictions of the ratings for low-pass spatially filtered movies were much improved by employing a transient impulse function. The correlations between model predictions and observers' ratings rose from 0.507 without temporal filtering to 0.759 (p = 0.01%) when realistic impulses were included. The sustained impulse function and the Spatial Model carried more weight in ratings for normal and high-pass movies, whereas the transient impulse function with the Ordered-Temporal Model was most important for spatially low-pass movies. This is consistent with models in which high spatial frequency channels with sustained responses primarily code for spatial details in movies, while low spatial frequency channels with transient responses code for dynamic events. © 2015 ARVO.

The Impact of Spatial Correlation and Incommensurability on Model Evaluation

EPA Science Inventory

Standard evaluations of air quality models rely heavily on a direct comparison of monitoring data matched with the model output for the grid cell containing the monitor’s location. While such techniques may be adequate for some applications, conclusions are limited by such facto...

Common mode error in Antarctic GPS coordinate time series on its effect on bedrock-uplift estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Bin; King, Matt; Dai, Wujiao

2018-05-01

Spatially-correlated common mode error always exists in regional, or-larger, GPS networks. We applied independent component analysis (ICA) to GPS vertical coordinate time series in Antarctica from 2010 to 2014 and made a comparison with the principal component analysis (PCA). Using PCA/ICA, the time series can be decomposed into a set of temporal components and their spatial responses. We assume the components with common spatial responses are common mode error (CME). An average reduction of ˜40% about the RMS values was achieved in both PCA and ICA filtering. However, the common mode components obtained from the two approaches have different spatial and temporal features. ICA time series present interesting correlations with modeled atmospheric and non-tidal ocean loading displacements. A white noise (WN) plus power law noise (PL) model was adopted in the GPS velocity estimation using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) analysis, with ˜55% reduction of the velocity uncertainties after filtering using ICA. Meanwhile, spatiotemporal filtering reduces the amplitude of PL and periodic terms in the GPS time series. Finally, we compare the GPS uplift velocities, after correction for elastic effects, with recent models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). The agreements of the GPS observed velocities and four GIA models are generally improved after the spatiotemporal filtering, with a mean reduction of ˜0.9 mm/yr of the WRMS values, possibly allowing for more confident separation of various GIA model predictions.

Improving Genomic Prediction in Cassava Field Experiments Using Spatial Analysis.

PubMed

Elias, Ani A; Rabbi, Ismail; Kulakow, Peter; Jannink, Jean-Luc

2018-01-04

Cassava ( Manihot esculenta Crantz) is an important staple food in sub-Saharan Africa. Breeding experiments were conducted at the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture in cassava to select elite parents. Taking into account the heterogeneity in the field while evaluating these trials can increase the accuracy in estimation of breeding values. We used an exploratory approach using the parametric spatial kernels Power, Spherical, and Gaussian to determine the best kernel for a given scenario. The spatial kernel was fit simultaneously with a genomic kernel in a genomic selection model. Predictability of these models was tested through a 10-fold cross-validation method repeated five times. The best model was chosen as the one with the lowest prediction root mean squared error compared to that of the base model having no spatial kernel. Results from our real and simulated data studies indicated that predictability can be increased by accounting for spatial variation irrespective of the heritability of the trait. In real data scenarios we observed that the accuracy can be increased by a median value of 3.4%. Through simulations, we showed that a 21% increase in accuracy can be achieved. We also found that Range (row) directional spatial kernels, mostly Gaussian, explained the spatial variance in 71% of the scenarios when spatial correlation was significant. Copyright © 2018 Elias et al.

Spatial enhancement of ECG using diagnostic similarity score based lead selective multi-scale linear model.

PubMed

Nallikuzhy, Jiss J; Dandapat, S

2017-06-01

In this work, a new patient-specific approach to enhance the spatial resolution of ECG is proposed and evaluated. The proposed model transforms a three-lead ECG into a standard twelve-lead ECG thereby enhancing its spatial resolution. The three leads used for prediction are obtained from the standard twelve-lead ECG. The proposed model takes advantage of the improved inter-lead correlation in wavelet domain. Since the model is patient-specific, it also selects the optimal predictor leads for a given patient using a lead selection algorithm. The lead selection algorithm is based on a new diagnostic similarity score which computes the diagnostic closeness between the original and the spatially enhanced leads. Standard closeness measures are used to assess the performance of the model. The similarity in diagnostic information between the original and the spatially enhanced leads are evaluated using various diagnostic measures. Repeatability and diagnosability are performed to quantify the applicability of the model. A comparison of the proposed model is performed with existing models that transform a subset of standard twelve-lead ECG into the standard twelve-lead ECG. From the analysis of the results, it is evident that the proposed model preserves diagnostic information better compared to other models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the Character and Mitigation of Atmospheric Noise in InSAR Time Series Analysis (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnhart, W. D.; Fielding, E. J.; Fishbein, E.

2013-12-01

Time series analysis of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data, with its broad spatial coverage and ability to image regions that are sometimes very difficult to access, is a powerful tool for characterizing continental surface deformation and its temporal variations. With the impending launch of dedicated SAR missions such as Sentinel-1, ALOS-2, and the planned NASA L-band SAR mission, large volume data sets will allow researchers to further probe ground displacement processes with increased fidelity. Unfortunately, the precision of measurements in individual interferograms is impacted by several sources of noise, notably spatially correlated signals caused by path delays through the stratified and turbulent atmosphere and ionosphere. Spatial and temporal variations in atmospheric water vapor often introduce several to tens of centimeters of apparent deformation in the radar line-of-sight, correlated over short spatial scales (<10 km). Signals resulting from atmospheric path delays are particularly problematic because, like the subsidence and uplift signals associated with tectonic deformation, they are often spatially correlated with topography. In this talk, we provide an overview of the effects of spatially correlated tropospheric noise in individual interferograms and InSAR time series analysis, and we highlight where common assumptions of the temporal and spatial characteristics of tropospheric noise fail. Next, we discuss two classes of methods for mitigating the effects of tropospheric water vapor noise in InSAR time series analysis and single interferograms: noise estimation and characterization with independent observations from multispectral sensors such as MODIS and MERIS; and noise estimation and removal with weather models, multispectral sensor observations, and GPS. Each of these techniques can provide independent assessments of the contribution of water vapor in interferograms, but each technique also suffers from several pitfalls that we outline. The multispectral near-infrared (NIR) sensors provide high spatial resolution (~1 km) estimates of total column tropospheric water vapor by measuring the absorption of reflected solar illumination and provide may excellent estimates of wet delay. The Online Services for Correcting Atmosphere in Radar (OSCAR) project currently provides water vapor products through web services (http://oscar.jpl.nasa.gov). Unfortunately, such sensors require daytime and cloudless observations. Global and regional numerical weather models can provide an additional estimate of both the dry and atmospheric delays with spatial resolution of (3-100 km) and time scales of 1-3 hours, though these models are of lower accuracy than imaging observations and are benefited by independent observations from independent observations of atmospheric water vapor. Despite these issues, the integration of these techniques for InSAR correction and uncertainty estimation may contribute substantially to the reduction and rigorous characterization of uncertainty in InSAR time series analysis - helping to expand the range of tectonic displacements imaged with InSAR, to robustly constrain geophysical models, and to generate a-priori assessments of satellite acquisitions goals.

Spatial and temporal associations of road traffic noise and air pollution in London: Implications for epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Fecht, Daniela; Hansell, Anna L; Morley, David; Dajnak, David; Vienneau, Danielle; Beevers, Sean; Toledano, Mireille B; Kelly, Frank J; Anderson, H Ross; Gulliver, John

2016-03-01

Road traffic gives rise to noise and air pollution exposures, both of which are associated with adverse health effects especially for cardiovascular disease, but mechanisms may differ. Understanding the variability in correlations between these pollutants is essential to understand better their separate and joint effects on human health. We explored associations between modelled noise and air pollutants using different spatial units and area characteristics in London in 2003-2010. We modelled annual average exposures to road traffic noise (LAeq,24h, Lden, LAeq,16h, Lnight) for ~190,000 postcode centroids in London using the UK Calculation of Road Traffic Noise (CRTN) method. We used a dispersion model (KCLurban) to model nitrogen dioxide, nitrogen oxide, ozone, total and the traffic-only component of particulate matter ≤2.5μm and ≤10μm. We analysed noise and air pollution correlations at the postcode level (~50 people), postcodes stratified by London Boroughs (~240,000 people), neighbourhoods (Lower layer Super Output Areas) (~1600 people), 1km grid squares, air pollution tertiles, 50m, 100m and 200m in distance from major roads and by deprivation tertiles. Across all London postcodes, we observed overall moderate correlations between modelled noise and air pollution that were stable over time (Spearman's rho range: |0.34-0.55|). Correlations, however, varied considerably depending on the spatial unit: largest ranges were seen in neighbourhoods and 1km grid squares (both Spearman's rho range: |0.01-0.87|) and was less for Boroughs (Spearman's rho range: |0.21-0.78|). There was little difference in correlations between exposure tertiles, distance from road or deprivation tertiles. Associations between noise and air pollution at the relevant geographical unit of analysis need to be carefully considered in any epidemiological analysis, in particular in complex urban areas. Low correlations near roads, however, suggest that independent effects of road noise and traffic-related air pollution can be reliably determined within London. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal variations in mango colour, acidity, and sweetness in relation to temperature and ethylene gradients within the fruit.

PubMed

Nordey, Thibault; Léchaudel, Mathieu; Génard, Michel; Joas, Jacques

2014-11-01

Managing fruit quality is complex because many different attributes have to be taken into account, which are themselves subjected to spatial and temporal variations. Heterogeneous fruit quality has been assumed to be partly related to temperature and maturity gradients within the fruit. To test this assumption, we measured the spatial variability of certain mango fruit quality traits: colour of the peel and of the flesh, and sourness and sweetness, at different stages of fruit maturity using destructive methods as well as vis-NIR reflectance. The spatial variability of mango quality traits was compared to internal variations in thermal time, simulated by a physical model, and to internal variations in maturity, using ethylene content as an indicator. All the fruit quality indicators analysed showed significant spatial and temporal variations, regardless of the measurement method used. The heterogeneity of internal fruit quality traits was not correlated with the marked internal temperature gradient we modelled. However, variations in ethylene content revealed a strong internal maturity gradient which was correlated with the spatial variations in measured mango quality traits. Nonetheless, alone, the internal maturity gradient did not explain the variability of fruit quality traits, suggesting that other factors, such as gas, abscisic acid and water gradients, are also involved. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Spatial variations of storm runoff pollution and their correlation with land-use in a rapidly urbanizing catchment in China.

PubMed

Qin, Hua-Peng; Khu, Soon-Thiam; Yu, Xiang-Ying

2010-09-15

The composition of land use for a rapidly urbanizing catchment is usually heterogeneous, and this may result in significant spatial variations of storm runoff pollution and increase the difficulties of water quality management. The Shiyan Reservoir catchment, a typical rapidly urbanizing area in China, is chosen as a study area, and temporary monitoring sites were set at the downstream of its 6 sub-catchments to synchronously measure rainfall, runoff and water quality during 4 storm events in 2007 and 2009. Due to relatively low frequency monitoring, the IHACRES and exponential pollutant wash-off simulation models are used to interpolate the measured data to compensate for data insufficiency. Three indicators, event pollutant loads per unit area (EPL), event mean concentration (EMC) and pollutant loads transported by the first 50% of runoff volume (FF50), were used to describe the runoff pollution for different pollutants in each sub-catchment during the storm events, and the correlations between runoff pollution spatial variations and land-use patterns were tested by Spearman's rank correlation analysis. The results indicated that similar spatial variation trends were found for different pollutants (EPL or EMC) in light storm events, which strongly correlate with the proportion of residential land use; however, they have different trends in heavy storm events, which correlate with not only the residential land use, but also agricultural and bare land use. And some pairs of pollutants (such as COD/BOD, NH(3)-N/TN) might have the similar source because they have strong or moderate positive spatial correlation. Moreover, the first flush intensity (FF50) varies with impervious land areas and different interception ratio of initial storm runoff volume should be adopted in different sub-catchments. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial pattern and heterogeneity of soil moisture along a transect in a small catchment on the Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yang; Dou, Yanxing; Liu, Dong; An, Shaoshan

2017-07-01

Spatial pattern and heterogeneity of soil moisture is important for the hydrological process on the Loess Plateau. This study combined the classical and geospatial statistical techniques to examine the spatial pattern and heterogeneity of soil moisture along a transect scale (e.g. land use types and topographical attributes) on the Loess Plateau. The average values of soil moisture were on the order of farmland > orchard > grassland > abandoned land > shrubland > forestland. Vertical distribution characteristics of soil moisture (0-500 cm) were similar among land use types. Highly significant (p < 0.01) negative correlations were found between soil moisture and elevation (h) except for shrubland (p > 0.05), whereas no significant correlations were found between soil moisture and plan curvature (Kh), stream power index (SPI), compound topographic index (CTI) (p > 0.05), indicating that topographical attributes (mainly h) have a negative effect on the soil moisture spatial heterogeneity. Besides, soil moisture spatial heterogeneity decreased from forestland to grassland and farmland, accompanied by a decline from 15° to 1° alongside upper to lower slope position. This study highlights the importance of land use types and topographical attributes on the soil moisture spatial heterogeneity from a combined analysis of the structural equation model (SEM) and generalized additive models (GAMs), and the relative contribution of land use types to the soil moisture spatial heterogeneity was higher than that of topographical attributes, which provides insights for researches focusing on soil moisture varitions on the Loess Plateau.

An Introduction to Macro- Level Spatial Nonstationarity: a Geographically Weighted Regression Analysis of Diabetes and Poverty

PubMed Central

Siordia, Carlos; Saenz, Joseph; Tom, Sarah E.

2014-01-01

Type II diabetes is a growing health problem in the United States. Understanding geographic variation in diabetes prevalence will inform where resources for management and prevention should be allocated. Investigations of the correlates of diabetes prevalence have largely ignored how spatial nonstationarity might play a role in the macro-level distribution of diabetes. This paper introduces the reader to the concept of spatial nonstationarity—variance in statistical relationships as a function of geographical location. Since spatial nonstationarity means different predictors can have varying effects on model outcomes, we make use of a geographically weighed regression to calculate correlates of diabetes as a function of geographic location. By doing so, we demonstrate an exploratory example in which the diabetes-poverty macro-level statistical relationship varies as a function of location. In particular, we provide evidence that when predicting macro-level diabetes prevalence, poverty is not always positively associated with diabetes PMID:25414731

Simulation of spatially evolving turbulence and the applicability of Taylor's hypothesis in compressible flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Sangsan; Lele, Sanjiva K.; Moin, Parviz

1992-01-01

For the numerical simulation of inhomogeneous turbulent flows, a method is developed for generating stochastic inflow boundary conditions with a prescribed power spectrum. Turbulence statistics from spatial simulations using this method with a low fluctuation Mach number are in excellent agreement with the experimental data, which validates the procedure. Turbulence statistics from spatial simulations are also compared to those from temporal simulations using Taylor's hypothesis. Statistics such as turbulence intensity, vorticity, and velocity derivative skewness compare favorably with the temporal simulation. However, the statistics of dilatation show a significant departure from those obtained in the temporal simulation. To directly check the applicability of Taylor's hypothesis, space-time correlations of fluctuations in velocity, vorticity, and dilatation are investigated. Convection velocities based on vorticity and velocity fluctuations are computed as functions of the spatial and temporal separations. The profile of the space-time correlation of dilatation fluctuations is explained via a wave propagation model.

An Introduction to Macro- Level Spatial Nonstationarity: a Geographically Weighted Regression Analysis of Diabetes and Poverty.

PubMed

Siordia, Carlos; Saenz, Joseph; Tom, Sarah E

2012-01-01

Type II diabetes is a growing health problem in the United States. Understanding geographic variation in diabetes prevalence will inform where resources for management and prevention should be allocated. Investigations of the correlates of diabetes prevalence have largely ignored how spatial nonstationarity might play a role in the macro-level distribution of diabetes. This paper introduces the reader to the concept of spatial nonstationarity-variance in statistical relationships as a function of geographical location. Since spatial nonstationarity means different predictors can have varying effects on model outcomes, we make use of a geographically weighed regression to calculate correlates of diabetes as a function of geographic location. By doing so, we demonstrate an exploratory example in which the diabetes-poverty macro-level statistical relationship varies as a function of location. In particular, we provide evidence that when predicting macro-level diabetes prevalence, poverty is not always positively associated with diabetes.

Spatial memory in foraging games.

PubMed

Kerster, Bryan E; Rhodes, Theo; Kello, Christopher T

2016-03-01

Foraging and foraging-like processes are found in spatial navigation, memory, visual search, and many other search functions in human cognition and behavior. Foraging is commonly theorized using either random or correlated movements based on Lévy walks, or a series of decisions to remain or leave proximal areas known as "patches". Neither class of model makes use of spatial memory, but search performance may be enhanced when information about searched and unsearched locations is encoded. A video game was developed to test the role of human spatial memory in a canonical foraging task. Analyses of search trajectories from over 2000 human players yielded evidence that foraging movements were inherently clustered, and that clustering was facilitated by spatial memory cues and influenced by memory for spatial locations of targets found. A simple foraging model is presented in which spatial memory is used to integrate aspects of Lévy-based and patch-based foraging theories to perform a kind of area-restricted search, and thereby enhance performance as search unfolds. Using only two free parameters, the model accounts for a variety of findings that individually support competing theories, but together they argue for the integration of spatial memory into theories of foraging. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial Characteristics of Tree Diameter Distributions in a Temperate Old-Growth Forest

PubMed Central

Zhao, Xiuhai; von Gadow, Klaus

2013-01-01

This contribution identifies spatial characteristics of tree diameter in a temperate forest in north-eastern China, based on a fully censused observational study area covering 500×600 m. Mark correlation analysis with three null hypothesis models was used to determine departure from expectations at different neighborhood distances. Tree positions are clumped at all investigated scales in all 37 studied species, while the diameters of most species are spatially negatively correlated, especially at short distances. Interestingly, all three cases showing short-distance attraction of dbh marks are associated with light-demanding shrub species. The short-distance attraction of dbh marks indicates spatially aggregated cohorts of stems of similar size. The percentage of species showing significant dbh suppression peaked at a 4 m distance under the heterogeneous Poisson model. At scales exceeding the peak distance, the percentage of species showing significant dbh suppression decreases sharply with increasing distances. The evidence from this large observational study shows that some of the variation of the spatial characteristics of tree diameters is related variations of topography and soil chemistry. However, an obvious interpretation of this result is still lacking. Thus, removing competitors surrounding the target trees is an effective way to avoid neighboring competition effects reducing the growth of valuable target trees in forest management practice. PMID:23527066

Spatial characteristics of tree diameter distributions in a temperate old-growth forest.

PubMed

Zhang, Chunyu; Wei, Yanbo; Zhao, Xiuhai; von Gadow, Klaus

2013-01-01

This contribution identifies spatial characteristics of tree diameter in a temperate forest in north-eastern China, based on a fully censused observational study area covering 500×600 m. Mark correlation analysis with three null hypothesis models was used to determine departure from expectations at different neighborhood distances. Tree positions are clumped at all investigated scales in all 37 studied species, while the diameters of most species are spatially negatively correlated, especially at short distances. Interestingly, all three cases showing short-distance attraction of dbh marks are associated with light-demanding shrub species. The short-distance attraction of dbh marks indicates spatially aggregated cohorts of stems of similar size. The percentage of species showing significant dbh suppression peaked at a 4 m distance under the heterogeneous Poisson model. At scales exceeding the peak distance, the percentage of species showing significant dbh suppression decreases sharply with increasing distances. The evidence from this large observational study shows that some of the variation of the spatial characteristics of tree diameters is related variations of topography and soil chemistry. However, an obvious interpretation of this result is still lacking. Thus, removing competitors surrounding the target trees is an effective way to avoid neighboring competition effects reducing the growth of valuable target trees in forest management practice.

Quantifying spatial and temporal variabilities of microwave brightness temperature over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choudhury, B. J.; Owe, M.; Ormsby, J. P.; Chang, A. T. C.; Wang, J. R.; Goward, S. N.; Golus, R. E.

1987-01-01

Spatial and temporal variabilities of microwave brightness temperature over the U.S. Southern Great Plains are quantified in terms of vegetation and soil wetness. The brightness temperatures (TB) are the daytime observations from April to October for five years (1979 to 1983) obtained by the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer at 6.6 GHz frequency, horizontal polarization. The spatial and temporal variabilities of vegetation are assessed using visible and near-infrared observations by the NOAA-7 Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), while an Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) model is used for soil wetness. The API model was able to account for more than 50 percent of the observed variability in TB, although linear correlations between TB and API were generally significant at the 1 percent level. The slope of the linear regression between TB and API is found to correlate linearly with an index for vegetation density derived from AVHRR data.

Spatial Clustering of Occupational Injuries in Communities

PubMed Central

Friedman, Lee; Chin, Brian; Madigan, Dana

2015-01-01

Objectives. Using the social-ecological model, we hypothesized that the home residences of injured workers would be clustered predictably and geographically. Methods. We linked health care and publicly available datasets by home zip code for traumatically injured workers in Illinois from 2000 to 2009. We calculated numbers and rates of injuries, determined the spatial relationships, and developed 3 models. Results. Among the 23 200 occupational injuries, 80% of cases were located in 20% of zip codes and clustered in 10 locations. After component analysis, numbers and clusters of injuries correlated directly with immigrants; injury rates inversely correlated with urban poverty. Conclusions. Traumatic occupational injuries were clustered spatially by home location of the affected workers and in a predictable way. This put an inequitable burden on communities and provided evidence for the possible value of community-based interventions for prevention of occupational injuries. Work should be included in health disparities research. Stakeholders should determine whether and how to intervene at the community level to prevent occupational injuries. PMID:25905838

3D radiation belt diffusion model results using new empirical models of whistler chorus and hiss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunningham, G.; Chen, Y.; Henderson, M. G.; Reeves, G. D.; Tu, W.

2012-12-01

3D diffusion codes model the energization, radial transport, and pitch angle scattering due to wave-particle interactions. Diffusion codes are powerful but are limited by the lack of knowledge of the spatial & temporal distribution of waves that drive the interactions for a specific event. We present results from the 3D DREAM model using diffusion coefficients driven by new, activity-dependent, statistical models of chorus and hiss waves. Most 3D codes parameterize the diffusion coefficients or wave amplitudes as functions of magnetic activity indices like Kp, AE, or Dst. These functional representations produce the average value of the wave intensities for a given level of magnetic activity; however, the variability of the wave population at a given activity level is lost with such a representation. Our 3D code makes use of the full sample distributions contained in a set of empirical wave databases (one database for each wave type, including plasmaspheric hiss, lower and upper hand chorus) that were recently produced by our team using CRRES and THEMIS observations. The wave databases store the full probability distribution of observed wave intensity binned by AE, MLT, MLAT and L*. In this presentation, we show results that make use of the wave intensity sample probability distributions for lower-band and upper-band chorus by sampling the distributions stochastically during a representative CRRES-era storm. The sampling of the wave intensity probability distributions produces a collection of possible evolutions of the phase space density, which quantifies the uncertainty in the model predictions caused by the uncertainty of the chorus wave amplitudes for a specific event. A significant issue is the determination of an appropriate model for the spatio-temporal correlations of the wave intensities, since the diffusion coefficients are computed as spatio-temporal averages of the waves over MLT, MLAT and L*. The spatiotemporal correlations cannot be inferred from the wave databases. In this study we use a temporal correlation of ~1 hour for the sampled wave intensities that is informed by the observed autocorrelation in the AE index, a spatial correlation length of ~100 km in the two directions perpendicular to the magnetic field, and a spatial correlation length of 5000 km in the direction parallel to the magnetic field, according to the work of Santolik et al (2003), who used multi-spacecraft measurements from Cluster to quantify the correlation length scales for equatorial chorus . We find that, despite the small correlation length scale for chorus, there remains significant variability in the model outcomes driven by variability in the chorus wave intensities.

Predicting the Overall Spatial Quality of Automotive Audio Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koya, Daisuke

The spatial quality of automotive audio systems is often compromised due to their unideal listening environments. Automotive audio systems need to be developed quickly due to industry demands. A suitable perceptual model could evaluate the spatial quality of automotive audio systems with similar reliability to formal listening tests but take less time. Such a model is developed in this research project by adapting an existing model of spatial quality for automotive audio use. The requirements for the adaptation were investigated in a literature review. A perceptual model called QESTRAL was reviewed, which predicts the overall spatial quality of domestic multichannel audio systems. It was determined that automotive audio systems are likely to be impaired in terms of the spatial attributes that were not considered in developing the QESTRAL model, but metrics are available that might predict these attributes. To establish whether the QESTRAL model in its current form can accurately predict the overall spatial quality of automotive audio systems, MUSHRA listening tests using headphone auralisation with head tracking were conducted to collect results to be compared against predictions by the model. Based on guideline criteria, the model in its current form could not accurately predict the overall spatial quality of automotive audio systems. To improve prediction performance, the QESTRAL model was recalibrated and modified using existing metrics of the model, those that were proposed from the literature review, and newly developed metrics. The most important metrics for predicting the overall spatial quality of automotive audio systems included those that were interaural cross-correlation (IACC) based, relate to localisation of the frontal audio scene, and account for the perceived scene width in front of the listener. Modifying the model for automotive audio systems did not invalidate its use for domestic audio systems. The resulting model predicts the overall spatial quality of 2- and 5-channel automotive audio systems with a cross-validation performance of R. 2 = 0.85 and root-mean-squareerror (RMSE) = 11.03%.

Balanced cortical microcircuitry for spatial working memory based on corrective feedback control.

PubMed

Lim, Sukbin; Goldman, Mark S

2014-05-14

A hallmark of working memory is the ability to maintain graded representations of both the spatial location and amplitude of a memorized stimulus. Previous work has identified a neural correlate of spatial working memory in the persistent maintenance of spatially specific patterns of neural activity. How such activity is maintained by neocortical circuits remains unknown. Traditional models of working memory maintain analog representations of either the spatial location or the amplitude of a stimulus, but not both. Furthermore, although most previous models require local excitation and lateral inhibition to maintain spatially localized persistent activity stably, the substrate for lateral inhibitory feedback pathways is unclear. Here, we suggest an alternative model for spatial working memory that is capable of maintaining analog representations of both the spatial location and amplitude of a stimulus, and that does not rely on long-range feedback inhibition. The model consists of a functionally columnar network of recurrently connected excitatory and inhibitory neural populations. When excitation and inhibition are balanced in strength but offset in time, drifts in activity trigger spatially specific negative feedback that corrects memory decay. The resulting networks can temporally integrate inputs at any spatial location, are robust against many commonly considered perturbations in network parameters, and, when implemented in a spiking model, generate irregular neural firing characteristic of that observed experimentally during persistent activity. This work suggests balanced excitatory-inhibitory memory circuits implementing corrective negative feedback as a substrate for spatial working memory. Copyright © 2014 the authors 0270-6474/14/346790-17$15.00/0.

Value-at-Risk forecasts by a spatiotemporal model in Chinese stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Pu; Weng, Yingliang

2016-01-01

This paper generalizes a recently proposed spatial autoregressive model and introduces a spatiotemporal model for forecasting stock returns. We support the view that stock returns are affected not only by the absolute values of factors such as firm size, book-to-market ratio and momentum but also by the relative values of factors like trading volume ranking and market capitalization ranking in each period. This article studies a new method for constructing stocks' reference groups; the method is called quartile method. Applying the method empirically to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, we compare the daily volatility forecasting performance and the out-of-sample forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimated by different models. The empirical results show that the spatiotemporal model performs surprisingly well in terms of capturing spatial dependences among individual stocks, and it produces more accurate VaR forecasts than the other three models introduced in the previous literature. Moreover, the findings indicate that both allowing for serial correlation in the disturbances and using time-varying spatial weight matrices can greatly improve the predictive accuracy of a spatial autoregressive model.

Model-based estimators of density and connectivity to inform conservation of spatially structured populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morin, Dana J.; Fuller, Angela K.; Royle, J. Andrew; Sutherland, Chris

2017-01-01

Conservation and management of spatially structured populations is challenging because solutions must consider where individuals are located, but also differential individual space use as a result of landscape heterogeneity. A recent extension of spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models, the ecological distance model, uses spatial encounter histories of individuals (e.g., a record of where individuals are detected across space, often sequenced over multiple sampling occasions), to estimate the relationship between space use and characteristics of a landscape, allowing simultaneous estimation of both local densities of individuals across space and connectivity at the scale of individual movement. We developed two model-based estimators derived from the SCR ecological distance model to quantify connectivity over a continuous surface: (1) potential connectivity—a metric of the connectivity of areas based on resistance to individual movement; and (2) density-weighted connectivity (DWC)—potential connectivity weighted by estimated density. Estimates of potential connectivity and DWC can provide spatial representations of areas that are most important for the conservation of threatened species, or management of abundant populations (i.e., areas with high density and landscape connectivity), and thus generate predictions that have great potential to inform conservation and management actions. We used a simulation study with a stationary trap design across a range of landscape resistance scenarios to evaluate how well our model estimates resistance, potential connectivity, and DWC. Correlation between true and estimated potential connectivity was high, and there was positive correlation and high spatial accuracy between estimated DWC and true DWC. We applied our approach to data collected from a population of black bears in New York, and found that forested areas represented low levels of resistance for black bears. We demonstrate that formal inference about measures of landscape connectivity can be achieved from standard methods of studying animal populations which yield individual encounter history data such as camera trapping. Resulting biological parameters including resistance, potential connectivity, and DWC estimate the spatial distribution and connectivity of the population within a statistical framework, and we outline applications to many possible conservation and management problems.

Spherical disharmonics in the Earth sciences and the spatial solution: Ridges, hotspots, slabs, geochemistry and tomography correlations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Terrill W.; Anderson, Don L.

1994-01-01

There is increasing use of statistical correlations between geophysical fields and between geochemical and geophysical fields in attempts to understand how the Earth works. Typically, such correlations have been based on spherical harmonic expansions. The expression of functions on the sphere as spherical harmonic series has many pitfalls, especially if the data are nonuniformly and/or sparsely sampled. Many of the difficulties involved in the use of spherical harmonic expansion techniques can be avoided through the use of spatial domain correlations, but this introduces other complications, such as the choice of a sampling lattice. Additionally, many geophysical and geochemical fields fail to satisfy the assumptions of standard statistical significance tests. This is especially problematic when the data values to be correlated with a geophysical field were collected at sample locations which themselves correlate with that field. This paper examines many correlations which have been claimed in the past between geochemistry and mantle tomography and between hotspot, ridge, and slab locations and tomography using both spherical harmonic coefficient correlations and spatial domain correlations. No conclusively significant correlations are found between isotopic geochemistry and mantle tomography. The Crough and Jurdy (short) hotspot location list shows statistically significant correlation with lowermost mantle tomography for degree 2 of the spherical harmonic expansion, but there are no statistically significant correlations in the spatial case. The Vogt (long) hotspot location list does not correlate with tomography anywhere in the mantle using either technique. Both hotspot lists show a strong correlation between hotspot locations and geoid highs when spatially correlated, but no correlations are revealed by spherical harmonic techniques. Ridge locations do not show any statistically significant correlations with tomography, slab locations, or the geoid; the strongest correlation is with lowermost mantle tomography, which is probably spurious. The most striking correlations are between mantle tomography and post-Pangean subducted slabs. The integrated locations of slabs correlate strongly with fast areas near the transition zone and the core-mantle boundary and with slow regions from 1022-1248 km depth. This seems to be consistent with the 'avalanching' downwellings which have been indicated by models of the mantle which include an endothermic phase transition at the 670-km discontinuity, although this is not a unique interpretation. Taken as a whole, these results suggest that slabs and associated cold downwellings are the dominant feature of mantle convection. Hotspot locations are no better correlated with lower mantle tomography than are ridge locations.

Spatial fluctuations in transient creep deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurson, Lasse; Rosti, Jari; Koivisto, Juha; Miksic, Amandine; Alava, Mikko J.

2011-07-01

We study the spatial fluctuations of transient creep deformation of materials as a function of time, both by digital image correlation (DIC) measurements of paper samples and by numerical simulations of a crystal plasticity or discrete dislocation dynamics model. This model has a jamming or yielding phase transition, around which power law or Andrade creep is found. During primary creep, the relative strength of the strain rate fluctuations increases with time in both cases—the spatially averaged creep rate obeys the Andrade law epsilont ~ t - 0.7, while the time dependence of the spatial fluctuations of the local creep rates is given by Δepsilont ~ t - 0.5. A similar scaling for the fluctuations is found in the logarithmic creep regime that is typically observed for lower applied stresses. We review briefly some classical theories of Andrade creep from the point of view of such spatial fluctuations. We consider these phenomenological, time-dependent creep laws in terms of a description based on a non-equilibrium phase transition separating evolving and frozen states of the system when the externally applied load is varied. Such an interpretation is discussed further by the data collapse of the local deformations in the spirit of absorbing state/depinning phase transitions, as well as deformation-deformation correlations and the width of the cumulative strain distributions. The results are also compared with the order parameter fluctuations observed close to the depinning transition of the 2d linear interface model or the quenched Edwards-Wilkinson equation.

Relationship between sugarcane rust severity and soil properties in louisiana.

PubMed

Johnson, Richard M; Grisham, Michael P; Richard, Edward P

2007-06-01

ABSTRACT The extent of spatial and temporal variability of sugarcane rust (Puccinia melanocephala) infestation was related to variation in soil properties in five commercial fields of sugarcane (interspecific hybrids of Saccharum spp., cv. LCP 85-384) in southern Louisiana. Sugarcane fields were grid-soil sampled at several intensities and rust ratings were collected at each point over 6 to 7 weeks. Soil properties exhibited significant variability (coefficients of variation = 9 to 70.1%) and were spatially correlated in 39 of 40 cases with a range of spatial correlation varying from 39 to 201 m. Rust ratings were spatially correlated in 32 of 33 cases, with a range varying from 29 to 241 m. Rust ratings were correlated with several soil properties, most notably soil phosphorus (r = 0.40 to 0.81) and soil sulfur (r = 0.36 to 0.68). Multiple linear regression analysis resulted in coefficients of determination that ranged from 0.22 to 0.73, and discriminant analysis further improved the overall predictive ability of rust models. Finally, contour plots of soil properties and rust levels clearly suggested a link between these two parameters. These combined data suggest that sugarcane growers that apply fertilizer in excess of plant requirements will increase the incidence and severity of rust infestations in their fields.

Spatial distribution of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria and archaea across a 44-hectare farm related to ecosystem functioning

PubMed Central

Wessén, Ella; Söderström, Mats; Stenberg, Maria; Bru, David; Hellman, Maria; Welsh, Allana; Thomsen, Frida; Klemedtson, Leif; Philippot, Laurent; Hallin, Sara

2011-01-01

Characterization of spatial patterns of functional microbial communities could facilitate the understanding of the relationships between the ecology of microbial communities, the biogeochemical processes they perform and the corresponding ecosystem functions. Because of the important role the ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and archaea (AOA) have in nitrogen cycling and nitrate leaching, we explored the spatial distribution of their activity, abundance and community composition across a 44-ha large farm divided into an organic and an integrated farming system. The spatial patterns were mapped by geostatistical modeling and correlations to soil properties and ecosystem functioning in terms of nitrate leaching were determined. All measured community components for both AOB and AOA exhibited spatial patterns at the hectare scale. The patchy patterns of community structures did not reflect the farming systems, but the AOB community was weakly related to differences in soil pH and moisture, whereas the AOA community to differences in soil pH and clay content. Soil properties related differently to the size of the communities, with soil organic carbon and total nitrogen correlating positively to AOB abundance, while clay content and pH showed a negative correlation to AOA abundance. Contrasting spatial patterns were observed for the abundance distributions of the two groups indicating that the AOB and AOA may occupy different niches in agro-ecosystems. In addition, the two communities correlated differently to community and ecosystem functions. Our results suggest that the AOA, not the AOB, were contributing to nitrate leaching at the site by providing substrate for the nitrite oxidizers. PMID:21228891

A Spatial Correlation Model of Permeability on the Columbia River Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayne, R., Jr.; Pollyea, R. M.

2017-12-01

This study presents a spatial correlation model of regional scale permeability variability within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). The data were compiled from the literature, and include 893 aquifer test results from 598 individual wells. In order to quantify the spatial variation of permeability within the CRBG, three experimental variograms (two horizontal and one vertical) are calculated and then fit with a linear combination of mathematical models. The horizontal variograms show there is a 4.5:1 anisotropy ratio for the permeability correlation structure with a long-range correlation of 35 km at N40°E. The km-scale range of these variograms suggests that there is regional control on permeability within the CRBG. One plausible control on the permeability distribution is that rapid crustal loading during CRBG emplacement ( 80% over 1M years) resulted in an isostatic response where the Columbia Plateau had previously undergone subsidence. To support this hypothesis, we calculate a 200 m moving average of all permeability values with depth. This calculation shows that permeability generally follows a systematic decay until 1,100 m depth, beyond which the 200 m moving average permeability increases 3 orders of magnitude. Since basalt fracture networks govern permeability on Columbia River Plateau, this observation is consistent with basal flexure causing tensile stress that counteract lithostatic loading, thus maintaining higher than expected permeability at depth within the Columbia River Basalt Group. These results may have important implications for regional CRBG groundwater management, as well as engineered reservoirs for carbon capture and sequestration and nuclear waste storage.

Spatial Analysis of Land Subsidence and Flood Pattern Based on DInSAR Method in Sentinel Sar Imagery and Weighting Method in Geo-Hazard Parameters Combination in North Jakarta Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasetyo, Y.; Yuwono, B. D.; Ramadhanis, Z.

2018-02-01

The reclamation program carried out in most cities in North Jakarta is directly adjacent to the Jakarta Bay. Beside this program, the density of population and development center in North Jakarta office has increased the need for underground water excessively. As a result of these things, land subsidence in North Jakarta area is relatively high and so intense. The research methodology was developed based on the method of remote sensing and geographic information systems, expected to describe the spatial correlation between the land subsidence and flood phenomenon in North Jakarta. The DInSAR (Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) method with satellite image data Radar (SAR Sentinel 1A) for the years 2015 to 2016 acquisitions was used in this research. It is intended to obtain a pattern of land subsidence in North Jakarta and then combined with flood patterns. For the preparation of flood threat zoning pattern, this research has been modeling in spatial technique based on a weighted parameter of rainfall, elevation, flood zones and land use. In the final result, we have obtained a flood hazard zonation models then do the overlap against DInSAR processing results. As a result of the research, Geo-hazard modelling has a variety results as: 81% of flood threat zones consist of rural area, 12% consists of un-built areas and 7% consists of water areas. Furthermore, the correlation of land subsidence to flood risk zone is divided into three levels of suitability with 74% in high class, 22% in medium class and 4% in low class. For the result of spatial correlation area between land subsidence and flood risk zone are 77% detected in rural area, 17% detected in un-built area and 6% detected in a water area. Whereas the research product is the geo-hazard maps in North Jakarta as the basis of the spatial correlation analysis between the land subsidence and flooding phenomena.double point.

Joint transform correlators with spatially incoherent illumination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bykovsky, Yuri A.; Karpiouk, Andrey B.; Markilov, Anatoly A.; Rodin, Vladislav G.; Starikov, Sergey N.

1997-03-01

Two variants of joint transform correlators with monochromatic spatially incoherent illumination are considered. The Fourier-holograms of the reference and recognized images are recorded simultaneously or apart in a time on the same spatial light modulator directly by monochromatic spatially incoherent light. To create the signal of mutual correlation of the images it is necessary to execute nonlinear transformation when the hologram is illuminated by coherent light. In the first scheme of the correlator this aim was achieved by using double pas of a restoring coherent wave through the hologram. In the second variant of the correlator the non-linearity of the characteristic of the spatial light modulator for hologram recording was used. Experimental schemes and results on processing teste images by both variants of joint transform correlators with monochromatic spatially incoherent illumination. The use of spatially incoherent light on the input of joint transform correlators permits to reduce the requirements to optical quality of elements, to reduce accuracy requirements on elements positioning and to expand a number of devices suitable to input images in correlators.

Suppression of the "Quasiclassical" proximity gap in correlated-metal--superconductor structures.

PubMed

Nikolić, Branislav K; Freericks, J K; Miller, P

2002-02-18

We study the energy and spatial dependence of the local density of states in a superconductor--correlated-metal--superconductor Josephson junction, where the correlated metal is a non-Fermi liquid (described by the Falicov-Kimball model). Many-body correlations are treated with dynamical mean-field theory, extended to inhomogeneous systems. While quasiclassical theories predict a minigap in the spectrum of a disordered Fermi liquid which is proximity-coupled within a mesoscopic junction, we find that increasing electron correlations destroy any minigap that might be opened in the absence of many-body correlations.

A Study of Charge Transport: Correlated Energetic Disorder in Organic Semiconductors, and the Fragment Hamiltonian

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Jonathan Robert

This dissertation details work done on two different descriptions of charge transport. The first topic is energetic disorder in organic semiconductors, and its effect on charge transport. This is motivated primarily by solar cells, which can be broadly classified as either inorganic or organic. The inorganic class of solar cells is older, and more well-developed, with the most common type being constructed from crystalline silicon. The large silicon crystals required for these cells are expensive to manufacture, which gave rise to interest in photovoltaic cells made from much less costly organic polymers. These organic materials are also less efficient than their silicon counterparts, due to a large degree of spatial and energetic disorder. In this document, the sources and structure of energetic disorder in organic semiconductors are explored, with an emphasis on spatial correlations in energetic disorder. In order for an organic photovoltaic device to function, there must be photogeneration of an exciton (a bound electron-hole pair), exciton transport, exciton dissociation, and transport of the individual charges to their respective terminals. In the case of this thesis, the main focus is exciton dissociation. The effects of correlation on exciton dissociation are examined through computer simulation, and compared to the theory and simulations of previous researchers. We conclude that energetic disorder in organic semiconductors is spatially correlated, and that this correlation improves the ability of excitons to dissociate. The second topic of this dissertation is the Fragment Hamiltonian model. This is a model currently in development as a means of describing charge transport across a range of systems. Currently there are many different systems which exhibit various charge transport behaviors, which are described by several different models. The overarching goal of the Fragment Hamiltonian model is to construct a description of charge transport which accurately describes the behavior of multiple different materials (i.e. metallic conductors or ceramic insulators) in the appropriate limits. The Fragment Hamiltonian model is explored in the context of the tight-binding model, and properties such as the conductivity of several different systems are deduced.

A mini-review on econophysics: Comparative study of Chinese and western financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Bo; Jiang, Xiong-Fei; Ni, Peng-Yun

2014-07-01

We present a review of our recent research in econophysics, and focus on the comparative study of Chinese and western financial markets. By virtue of concepts and methods in statistical physics, we investigate the time correlations and spatial structure of financial markets based on empirical high-frequency data. We discover that the Chinese stock market shares common basic properties with the western stock markets, such as the fat-tail probability distribution of price returns, the long-range auto-correlation of volatilities, and the persistence probability of volatilities, while it exhibits very different higher-order time correlations of price returns and volatilities, spatial correlations of individual stock prices, and large-fluctuation dynamic behaviors. Furthermore, multi-agent-based models are developed to simulate the microscopic interaction and dynamic evolution of the stock markets.

Improving Evapotranspiration Estimates Using Multi-Platform Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knipper, Kyle; Hogue, Terri; Franz, Kristie; Scott, Russell

2016-04-01

Understanding the linkages between energy and water cycles through evapotranspiration (ET) is uniquely challenging given its dependence on a range of climatological parameters and surface/atmospheric heterogeneity. A number of methods have been developed to estimate ET either from primarily remote-sensing observations, in-situ measurements, or a combination of the two. However, the scale of many of these methods may be too large to provide needed information about the spatial and temporal variability of ET that can occur over regions with acute or chronic land cover change and precipitation driven fluxes. The current study aims to improve the spatial and temporal variability of ET utilizing only satellite-based observations by incorporating a potential evapotranspiration (PET) methodology with satellite-based down-scaled soil moisture estimates in southern Arizona, USA. Initially, soil moisture estimates from AMSR2 and SMOS are downscaled to 1km through a triangular relationship between MODIS land surface temperature (MYD11A1), vegetation indices (MOD13Q1/MYD13Q1), and brightness temperature. Downscaled soil moisture values are then used to scale PET to actual ET (AET) at a daily, 1km resolution. Derived AET estimates are compared to observed flux tower estimates, the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) model output (i.e. Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Macroscale Hydrologic Model, Mosiac Model, and Noah Model simulations), the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance Model (SSEBop), and a calibrated empirical ET model created specifically for the region. Preliminary results indicate a strong increase in correlation when incorporating the downscaling technique to original AMSR2 and SMOS soil moisture values, with the added benefit of being able to decipher small scale heterogeneity in soil moisture (riparian versus desert grassland). AET results show strong correlations with relatively low error and bias when compared to flux tower estimates. In addition, AET results show improved bias to those reported by SSEBop, with similar correlations and errors when compared to the empirical ET model. Spatial patterns of estimated AET display patterns representative of the basin's elevation and vegetation characteristics, with improved spatial resolution and temporal heterogeneity when compared to previous models.

Catching ghosts with a coarse net: use and abuse of spatial sampling data in detecting synchronization

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Synchronization of population dynamics in different habitats is a frequently observed phenomenon. A common mathematical tool to reveal synchronization is the (cross)correlation coefficient between time courses of values of the population size of a given species where the population size is evaluated from spatial sampling data. The corresponding sampling net or grid is often coarse, i.e. it does not resolve all details of the spatial configuration, and the evaluation error—i.e. the difference between the true value of the population size and its estimated value—can be considerable. We show that this estimation error can make the value of the correlation coefficient very inaccurate or even irrelevant. We consider several population models to show that the value of the correlation coefficient calculated on a coarse sampling grid rarely exceeds 0.5, even if the true value is close to 1, so that the synchronization is effectively lost. We also observe ‘ghost synchronization’ when the correlation coefficient calculated on a coarse sampling grid is close to 1 but in reality the dynamics are not correlated. Finally, we suggest a simple test to check the sampling grid coarseness and hence to distinguish between the true and artifactual values of the correlation coefficient. PMID:28202589

Exploring the Mechanisms of Ecological Land Change Based on the Spatial Autoregressive Model: A Case Study of the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone, China

PubMed Central

Xie, Hualin; Liu, Zhifei; Wang, Peng; Liu, Guiying; Lu, Fucai

2013-01-01

Ecological land is one of the key resources and conditions for the survival of humans because it can provide ecosystem services and is particularly important to public health and safety. It is extremely valuable for effective ecological management to explore the evolution mechanisms of ecological land. Based on spatial statistical analyses, we explored the spatial disparities and primary potential drivers of ecological land change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China. The results demonstrated that the global Moran’s I value is 0.1646 during the 1990 to 2005 time period and indicated significant positive spatial correlation (p < 0.05). The results also imply that the clustering trend of ecological land changes weakened in the study area. Some potential driving forces were identified by applying the spatial autoregressive model in this study. The results demonstrated that the higher economic development level and industrialization rate were the main drivers for the faster change of ecological land in the study area. This study also tested the superiority of the spatial autoregressive model to study the mechanisms of ecological land change by comparing it with the traditional linear regressive model. PMID:24384778

The correlation function for density perturbations in an expanding universe. III The three-point and predictions of the four-point and higher order correlation functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcclelland, J.; Silk, J.

1978-01-01

Higher-order correlation functions for the large-scale distribution of galaxies in space are investigated. It is demonstrated that the three-point correlation function observed by Peebles and Groth (1975) is not consistent with a distribution of perturbations that at present are randomly distributed in space. The two-point correlation function is shown to be independent of how the perturbations are distributed spatially, and a model of clustered perturbations is developed which incorporates a nonuniform perturbation distribution and which explains the three-point correlation function. A model with hierarchical perturbations incorporating the same nonuniform distribution is also constructed; it is found that this model also explains the three-point correlation function, but predicts different results for the four-point and higher-order correlation functions than does the model with clustered perturbations. It is suggested that the model of hierarchical perturbations might be explained by the single assumption of having density fluctuations or discrete objects all of the same mass randomly placed at some initial epoch.

Relating cell shape and mechanical stress in a spatially disordered epithelium using a vertex-based model

PubMed Central

Nestor-Bergmann, Alexander; Goddard, Georgina; Woolner, Sarah; Jensen, Oliver E

2018-01-01

Abstract Using a popular vertex-based model to describe a spatially disordered planar epithelial monolayer, we examine the relationship between cell shape and mechanical stress at the cell and tissue level. Deriving expressions for stress tensors starting from an energetic formulation of the model, we show that the principal axes of stress for an individual cell align with the principal axes of shape, and we determine the bulk effective tissue pressure when the monolayer is isotropic at the tissue level. Using simulations for a monolayer that is not under peripheral stress, we fit parameters of the model to experimental data for Xenopus embryonic tissue. The model predicts that mechanical interactions can generate mesoscopic patterns within the monolayer that exhibit long-range correlations in cell shape. The model also suggests that the orientation of mechanical and geometric cues for processes such as cell division are likely to be strongly correlated in real epithelia. Some limitations of the model in capturing geometric features of Xenopus epithelial cells are highlighted. PMID:28992197

[Spatial variation characteristics of surface soil water content, bulk density and saturated hydraulic conductivity on Karst slopes].

PubMed

Zhang, Chuan; Chen, Hong-Song; Zhang, Wei; Nie, Yun-Peng; Ye, Ying-Ying; Wang, Ke-Lin

2014-06-01

Surface soil water-physical properties play a decisive role in the dynamics of deep soil water. Knowledge of their spatial variation is helpful in understanding the processes of rainfall infiltration and runoff generation, which will contribute to the reasonable utilization of soil water resources in mountainous areas. Based on a grid sampling scheme (10 m x 10 m) and geostatistical methods, this paper aimed to study the spatial variability of surface (0-10 cm) soil water content, soil bulk density and saturated hydraulic conductivity on a typical shrub slope (90 m x 120 m, projected length) in Karst area of northwest Guangxi, southwest China. The results showed that the surface soil water content, bulk density and saturated hydraulic conductivity had different spatial dependence and spatial structure. Sample variogram of the soil water content was fitted well by Gaussian models with the nugget effect, while soil bulk density and saturated hydraulic conductivity were fitted well by exponential models with the nugget effect. Variability of soil water content showed strong spatial dependence, while the soil bulk density and saturated hydraulic conductivity showed moderate spatial dependence. The spatial ranges of the soil water content and saturated hydraulic conductivity were small, while that of the soil bulk density was much bigger. In general, the soil water content increased with the increase of altitude while it was opposite for the soil bulk densi- ty. However, the soil saturated hydraulic conductivity had a random distribution of large amounts of small patches, showing high spatial heterogeneity. Soil water content negatively (P < 0.01) correlated with the bulk density and saturated hydraulic conductivity, while there was no significant correlation between the soil bulk density and saturated hydraulic conductivity.

`spup' - An R Package for Analysis of Spatial Uncertainty Propagation and Application to Trace Gas Emission Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawicka, K.; Breuer, L.; Houska, T.; Santabarbara Ruiz, I.; Heuvelink, G. B. M.

2016-12-01

Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Advances in uncertainty propagation analysis and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability, including case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the `spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Here we will demonstrate that the 'spup' package is an effective and easy-to-use tool to be applied even in a very complex study case, and that it can be used in multi-disciplinary research and model-based decision support. As an example, we use the ecological LandscapeDNDC model to analyse propagation of uncertainties associated with spatial variability of the model driving forces such as rainfall, nitrogen deposition and fertilizer inputs. The uncertainty propagation is analysed for the prediction of emissions of N2O and CO2 for a German low mountainous, agriculturally developed catchment. The study tests the effect of spatial correlations on spatially aggregated model outputs, and could serve as an advice for developing best management practices and model improvement strategies.

The Latent Structure of Spatial Skills and Mathematics: A Replication of the Two-Factor Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mix, Kelly S.; Levine, Susan C.; Cheng, Yi-Lang; Young, Christopher J.; Hambrick, David Z.; Konstantopoulos, Spyros

2017-01-01

In a previous study, Mix et al. (2016) reported that spatial skill and mathematics were composed of 2 highly correlated, domain-specific factors, with a few cross-domain loadings. The overall structure was consistent across grade (kindergarten, 3rd grade, 6th grade), but the cross-domain loadings varied with age. The present study sought to…

Temporal variation in synchrony among chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) redd counts from a wilderness area in central Idaho

Treesearch

D. J. Isaak; R. F. Thurow; B. E. Rieman; J. B. Dunham

2003-01-01

Metapopulation dynamics have emerged as a key consideration in conservation planning for salmonid fishes. Implicit to many models of spatially structured populations is a degree of synchrony, or correlation, among populations. We used a spatially and temporally extensive database of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) redd counts from a wilderness area in central...

Mapping the spatial pattern of temperate forest above ground biomass by integrating airborne lidar with Radarsat-2 imagery via geostatistical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wang; Niu, Zheng; Gao, Shuai; Wang, Cheng

2014-11-01

Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) are two competitive active remote sensing techniques in forest above ground biomass estimation, which is important for forest management and global climate change study. This study aims to further explore their capabilities in temperate forest above ground biomass (AGB) estimation by emphasizing the spatial auto-correlation of variables obtained from these two remote sensing tools, which is a usually overlooked aspect in remote sensing applications to vegetation studies. Remote sensing variables including airborne LiDAR metrics, backscattering coefficient for different SAR polarizations and their ratio variables for Radarsat-2 imagery were calculated. First, simple linear regression models (SLR) was established between the field-estimated above ground biomass and the remote sensing variables. Pearson's correlation coefficient (R2) was used to find which LiDAR metric showed the most significant correlation with the regression residuals and could be selected as co-variable in regression co-kriging (RCoKrig). Second, regression co-kriging was conducted by choosing the regression residuals as dependent variable and the LiDAR metric (Hmean) with highest R2 as co-variable. Third, above ground biomass over the study area was estimated using SLR model and RCoKrig model, respectively. The results for these two models were validated using the same ground points. Results showed that both of these two methods achieved satisfactory prediction accuracy, while regression co-kriging showed the lower estimation error. It is proved that regression co-kriging model is feasible and effective in mapping the spatial pattern of AGB in the temperate forest using Radarsat-2 data calibrated by airborne LiDAR metrics.

Multi-Timescale Analysis of the Spatial Representativeness of In Situ Soil Moisture Data within Satellite Footprints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molero, B.; Leroux, D. J.; Richaume, P.; Kerr, Y. H.; Merlin, O.; Cosh, M. H.; Bindlish, R.

2018-01-01

We conduct a novel comprehensive investigation that seeks to prove the connection between spatial scales and timescales in surface soil moisture (SM) within the satellite footprint ( 50 km). Modeled and measured point series at Yanco and Little Washita in situ networks are first decomposed into anomalies at timescales ranging from 0.5 to 128 days, using wavelet transforms. Then, their degree of spatial representativeness is evaluated on a per-timescale basis by comparison to large spatial scale data sets (the in situ spatial average, SMOS, AMSR2, and ECMWF). Four methods are used for this: temporal stability analysis (TStab), triple collocation (TC), percentage of correlated areas (CArea), and a new proposed approach that uses wavelet-based correlations (WCor). We found that the mean of the spatial representativeness values tends to increase with the timescale but so does their dispersion. Locations exhibit poor spatial representativeness at scales below 4 days, while either very good or poor representativeness at seasonal scales. Regarding the methods, TStab cannot be applied to the anomaly series due to their multiple zero-crossings, and TC is suitable for week and month scales but not for other scales where data set cross-correlations are found low. In contrast, WCor and CArea give consistent results at all timescales. WCor is less sensitive to the spatial sampling density, so it is a robust method that can be applied to sparse networks (one station per footprint). These results are promising to improve the validation and downscaling of satellite SM series and the optimization of SM networks.

Surface Wave Tomography with Spatially Varying Smoothing Based on Continuous Model Regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Chuanming; Yao, Huajian

2017-03-01

Surface wave tomography based on continuous regionalization of model parameters is widely used to invert for 2-D phase or group velocity maps. An inevitable problem is that the distribution of ray paths is far from homogeneous due to the spatially uneven distribution of stations and seismic events, which often affects the spatial resolution of the tomographic model. We present an improved tomographic method with a spatially varying smoothing scheme that is based on the continuous regionalization approach. The smoothness of the inverted model is constrained by the Gaussian a priori model covariance function with spatially varying correlation lengths based on ray path density. In addition, a two-step inversion procedure is used to suppress the effects of data outliers on tomographic models. Both synthetic and real data are used to evaluate this newly developed tomographic algorithm. In the synthetic tests, when the contrived model has different scales of anomalies but with uneven ray path distribution, we compare the performance of our spatially varying smoothing method with the traditional inversion method, and show that the new method is capable of improving the recovery in regions of dense ray sampling. For real data applications, the resulting phase velocity maps of Rayleigh waves in SE Tibet produced using the spatially varying smoothing method show similar features to the results with the traditional method. However, the new results contain more detailed structures and appears to better resolve the amplitude of anomalies. From both synthetic and real data tests we demonstrate that our new approach is useful to achieve spatially varying resolution when used in regions with heterogeneous ray path distribution.

Can spatial statistical river temperature models be transferred between catchments?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Faye L.; Fryer, Robert J.; Hannah, David M.; Malcolm, Iain A.

2017-09-01

There has been increasing use of spatial statistical models to understand and predict river temperature (Tw) from landscape covariates. However, it is not financially or logistically feasible to monitor all rivers and the transferability of such models has not been explored. This paper uses Tw data from four river catchments collected in August 2015 to assess how well spatial regression models predict the maximum 7-day rolling mean of daily maximum Tw (Twmax) within and between catchments. Models were fitted for each catchment separately using (1) landscape covariates only (LS models) and (2) landscape covariates and an air temperature (Ta) metric (LS_Ta models). All the LS models included upstream catchment area and three included a river network smoother (RNS) that accounted for unexplained spatial structure. The LS models transferred reasonably to other catchments, at least when predicting relative levels of Twmax. However, the predictions were biased when mean Twmax differed between catchments. The RNS was needed to characterise and predict finer-scale spatially correlated variation. Because the RNS was unique to each catchment and thus non-transferable, predictions were better within catchments than between catchments. A single model fitted to all catchments found no interactions between the landscape covariates and catchment, suggesting that the landscape relationships were transferable. The LS_Ta models transferred less well, with particularly poor performance when the relationship with the Ta metric was physically implausible or required extrapolation outside the range of the data. A single model fitted to all catchments found catchment-specific relationships between Twmax and the Ta metric, indicating that the Ta metric was not transferable. These findings improve our understanding of the transferability of spatial statistical river temperature models and provide a foundation for developing new approaches for predicting Tw at unmonitored locations across multiple catchments and larger spatial scales.

Sample selection and spatial models of housing price indexes, and, A disequilibrium analysis of the U.S. gasoline market using panel data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Haixin

This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part studies the sample selection and spatial models of housing price index using transaction data on detached single-family houses of two California metropolitan areas from 1990 through 2008. House prices are often spatially correlated due to shared amenities, or when the properties are viewed as close substitutes in a housing submarket. There have been many studies that address spatial correlation in the context of housing markets. However, none has used spatial models to construct housing price indexes at zip code level for the entire time period analyzed in this dissertation to the best of my knowledge. In this paper, I study a first-order autoregressive spatial model with four different weighing matrix schemes. Four sets of housing price indexes are constructed accordingly. Gatzlaff and Haurin (1997, 1998) study the sample selection problem in housing index by using Heckman's two-step method. This method, however, is generally inefficient and can cause multicollinearity problem. Also, it requires data on unsold houses in order to carry out the first-step probit regression. Maximum likelihood (ML) method can be used to estimate a truncated incidental model which allows one to correct for sample selection based on transaction data only. However, convergence problem is very prevalent in practice. In this paper I adopt Lewbel's (2007) sample selection correction method which does not require one to model or estimate the selection model, except for some very general assumptions. I then extend this method to correct for spatial correlation. In the second part, I analyze the U.S. gasoline market with a disequilibrium model that allows lagged-latent variables, endogenous prices, and panel data with fixed effects. Most existing studies (see the survey of Espey, 1998, Energy Economics) of the gasoline market assume equilibrium. In practice, however, prices do not always adjust fast enough to clear the market. Equilibrium assumptions greatly simplify statistical inference, but are very restrictive and can produce conflicting estimates. For example, econometric models of markets that assume equilibrium often produce more elastic demand price elasticity than their disequilibrium counterparts (Holt and Johnson, 1989, Review of Economics and Statistics, Oczkowski, 1998, Economics Letters). The few studies that allow disequilibrium, however, have been limited to macroeconomic time-series data without lagged-latent variables. While time series data allows one to investigate national trends, it cannot be used to identify and analyze regional differences and the role of local markets. Exclusion of the lagged-latent variables is also undesirable because such variables capture adjustment costs and inter-temporal spillovers. Simulation methods offer tractable solutions to dynamic and panel data disequilibrium models (Lee, 1997, Journal of Econometrics), but assume normally distributed errors. This paper compares estimates of price/income elasticity and excess supply/demand across time periods, regions, and model specifications, using both equilibrium and disequilibrium methods. In the equilibrium model, I compare the within group estimator with Anderson and Hsiao's first-difference 2SLS estimator. In the disequilibrium model, I extend Amemiya's 2SLS by using Newey's efficient estimator with optimal instruments.

Modeling of two-particle femtoscopic correlations at top RHIC energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ermakov, N.; Nigmatkulov, G.

2017-01-01

The spatial and temporal characteristics of particle emitting source produced in particle and/or nuclear collisions can be measured by using two-particle femtoscopic correlations. These correlations arise due to quantum statistics, Coulomb and strong final state interactions. In this paper we report on the calculations of like-sign pion femtoscopic correlations produced in p+p, p+Au, d+Au, Au+Au at top RHIC energy using Ultra Relativistic Quantum Molecular Dynamics Model (UrQMD). Three-dimensional correlation functions are constructed using the Bertsch-Pratt parametrization of the two-particle relative momentum. The correlation functions are studied in several transverse mass ranges. The emitting source radii of charged pions, Rout, Rside, Rlong , are obtained from Gaussian fit to the correlation functions and compared to data from the STAR and PHENIX experiments.

Spatial econometric analysis of factors influencing regional energy efficiency in China.

PubMed

Song, Malin; Chen, Yu; An, Qingxian

2018-05-01

Increased environmental pollution and energy consumption caused by the country's rapid development has raised considerable public concern, and has become the focus of the government and public. This study employs the super-efficiency slack-based model-data envelopment analysis (SBM-DEA) to measure the total factor energy efficiency of 30 provinces in China. The estimation model for the spatial interaction intensity of regional total factor energy efficiency is based on Wilson's maximum entropy model. The model is used to analyze the factors that affect the potential value of total factor energy efficiency using spatial dynamic panel data for 30 provinces during 2000-2014. The study found that there are differences and spatial correlations of energy efficiency among provinces and regions in China. The energy efficiency in the eastern, central, and western regions fluctuated significantly, and was mainly because of significant energy efficiency impacts on influences of industrial structure, energy intensity, and technological progress. This research is of great significance to China's energy efficiency and regional coordinated development.

Statistical and Economic Techniques for Site-specific Nematode Management.

PubMed

Liu, Zheng; Griffin, Terry; Kirkpatrick, Terrence L

2014-03-01

Recent advances in precision agriculture technologies and spatial statistics allow realistic, site-specific estimation of nematode damage to field crops and provide a platform for the site-specific delivery of nematicides within individual fields. This paper reviews the spatial statistical techniques that model correlations among neighboring observations and develop a spatial economic analysis to determine the potential of site-specific nematicide application. The spatial econometric methodology applied in the context of site-specific crop yield response contributes to closing the gap between data analysis and realistic site-specific nematicide recommendations and helps to provide a practical method of site-specifically controlling nematodes.

Using a chemistry transport model to account for the spatial variability of exposure concentrations in epidemiologic air pollution studies.

PubMed

Valari, Myrto; Menut, Laurent; Chatignoux, Edouard

2011-02-01

Environmental epidemiology and more specifically time-series analysis have traditionally used area-averaged pollutant concentrations measured at central monitors as exposure surrogates to associate health outcomes with air pollution. However, spatial aggregation has been shown to contribute to the overall bias in the estimation of the exposure-response functions. This paper presents the benefit of adding features of the spatial variability of exposure by using concentration fields modeled with a chemistry transport model instead of monitor data and accounting for human activity patterns. On the basis of county-level census data for the city of Paris, France, and a Monte Carlo simulation, a simple activity model was developed accounting for the temporal variability between working and evening hours as well as during transit. By combining activity data with modeled concentrations, the downtown, suburban, and rural spatial patterns in exposure to nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and PM2.5 (particulate matter [PM] < or = 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter) were captured and parametrized. Exposures predicted with this model were used in a time-series study of the short-term effect of air pollution on total nonaccidental mortality for the 4-yr period from 2001 to 2004. It was shown that the time series of the exposure surrogates developed here are less correlated across co-pollutants than in the case of the area-averaged monitor data. This led to less biased exposure-response functions when all three co-pollutants were inserted simultaneously in the same regression model. This finding yields insight into pollutant-specific health effects that are otherwise masked by the high correlation among co-pollutants.

Using Bayesian hierarchical models to better understand nitrate sources and sinks in agricultural watersheds.

PubMed

Xia, Yongqiu; Weller, Donald E; Williams, Meghan N; Jordan, Thomas E; Yan, Xiaoyuan

2016-11-15

Export coefficient models (ECMs) are often used to predict nutrient sources and sinks in watersheds because ECMs can flexibly incorporate processes and have minimal data requirements. However, ECMs do not quantify uncertainties in model structure, parameters, or predictions; nor do they account for spatial and temporal variability in land characteristics, weather, and management practices. We applied Bayesian hierarchical methods to address these problems in ECMs used to predict nitrate concentration in streams. We compared four model formulations, a basic ECM and three models with additional terms to represent competing hypotheses about the sources of error in ECMs and about spatial and temporal variability of coefficients: an ADditive Error Model (ADEM), a SpatioTemporal Parameter Model (STPM), and a Dynamic Parameter Model (DPM). The DPM incorporates a first-order random walk to represent spatial correlation among parameters and a dynamic linear model to accommodate temporal correlation. We tested the modeling approach in a proof of concept using watershed characteristics and nitrate export measurements from watersheds in the Coastal Plain physiographic province of the Chesapeake Bay drainage. Among the four models, the DPM was the best--it had the lowest mean error, explained the most variability (R 2  = 0.99), had the narrowest prediction intervals, and provided the most effective tradeoff between fit complexity (its deviance information criterion, DIC, was 45.6 units lower than any other model, indicating overwhelming support for the DPM). The superiority of the DPM supports its underlying hypothesis that the main source of error in ECMs is their failure to account for parameter variability rather than structural error. Analysis of the fitted DPM coefficients for cropland export and instream retention revealed some of the factors controlling nitrate concentration: cropland nitrate exports were positively related to stream flow and watershed average slope, while instream nitrate retention was positively correlated with nitrate concentration. By quantifying spatial and temporal variability in sources and sinks, the DPM provides new information to better target management actions to the most effective times and places. Given the wide use of ECMs as research and management tools, our approach can be broadly applied in other watersheds and to other materials. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The spatial pattern of suicide in the US in relation to deprivation, fragmentation and rurality.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2011-01-01

Analysis of geographical patterns of suicide and psychiatric morbidity has demonstrated the impact of latent ecological variables (such as deprivation, rurality). Such latent variables may be derived by conventional multivariate techniques from sets of observed indices (for example, by principal components), by composite variable methods or by methods which explicitly consider the spatial framework of areas and, in particular, the spatial clustering of latent risks and outcomes. This article considers a latent random variable approach to explaining geographical contrasts in suicide in the US; and it develops a spatial structural equation model incorporating deprivation, social fragmentation and rurality. The approach allows for such latent spatial constructs to be correlated both within and between areas. Potential effects of area ethnic mix are also included. The model is applied to male and female suicide deaths over 2002–06 in 3142 US counties.

Computing aerodynamic sound using advanced statistical turbulence theories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hecht, A. M.; Teske, M. E.; Bilanin, A. J.

1981-01-01

It is noted that the calculation of turbulence-generated aerodynamic sound requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal variation of Q sub ij (xi sub k, tau), the two-point, two-time turbulent velocity correlations. A technique is presented to obtain an approximate form of these correlations based on closure of the Reynolds stress equations by modeling of higher order terms. The governing equations for Q sub ij are first developed for a general flow. The case of homogeneous, stationary turbulence in a unidirectional constant shear mean flow is then assumed. The required closure form for Q sub ij is selected which is capable of qualitatively reproducing experimentally observed behavior. This form contains separation time dependent scale factors as parameters and depends explicitly on spatial separation. The approximate forms of Q sub ij are used in the differential equations and integral moments are taken over the spatial domain. The velocity correlations are used in the Lighthill theory of aerodynamic sound by assuming normal joint probability.

Agricultural Decision Support Through Robust Assimilation of Satellite Derived Soil Moisture Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, V.; Cruise, J.; Mecikalski, J. R.

2012-12-01

Soil Moisture is a key component in the hydrological process, affects surface and boundary layer energy fluxes and is the driving factor in agricultural production. Multiple in situ soil moisture measuring instruments such as Time-domain Reflectrometry (TDR), Nuclear Probes etc. are in use along with remote sensing methods like Active and Passive Microwave (PM) sensors. In situ measurements, despite being more accurate, can only be obtained at discrete points over small spatial scales. Remote sensing estimates, on the other hand, can be obtained over larger spatial domains with varying spatial and temporal resolutions. Soil moisture profiles derived from satellite based thermal infrared (TIR) imagery can overcome many of the problems associated with laborious in-situ observations over large spatial domains. An area where soil moisture observation and assimilation is receiving increasing attention is agricultural crop modeling. This study revolves around the use of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model to simulate corn yields under various forcing scenarios. First, the model was run and calibrated using observed precipitation and model generated soil moisture dynamics. Next, the modeled soil moisture was updated using estimates derived from satellite based TIR imagery and the Atmospheric Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model. We selected three climatically different locations to test the concept. Test Locations were selected to represent varied climatology. Bell Mina, Alabama - South Eastern United States, representing humid subtropical climate. Nabb, Indiana - Mid Western United States, representing humid continental climate. Lubbok, Texas - Southern United States, representing semiarid steppe climate. A temporal (2000-2009) correlation analysis of the soil moisture values from both DSSAT and ALEXI were performed and validated against the Land Information System (LIS) soil moisture dataset. The results clearly show strong correlation (R = 73%) between ALEXI and DSSAT at Bell Mina. At Nabb and Lubbock the correlation was 50-60%. Further, multiple experiments were conducted for each location: a) a DSSAT rain-fed 10 year sequential run forced with daymet precipitation; b) a DSSAT sequential run with no precipitation data; and c) a DSSAT run forced with ALEXI soil moisture estimates alone. The preliminary results of all the experiments are quantified through soil moisture correlations and yield comparisons. In general, the preliminary results strongly suggest that DSSAT forced with ALEXI can provide significant information especially at locations where no significant precipitation data exists.

Functional Additive Mixed Models

PubMed Central

Scheipl, Fabian; Staicu, Ana-Maria; Greven, Sonja

2014-01-01

We propose an extensive framework for additive regression models for correlated functional responses, allowing for multiple partially nested or crossed functional random effects with flexible correlation structures for, e.g., spatial, temporal, or longitudinal functional data. Additionally, our framework includes linear and nonlinear effects of functional and scalar covariates that may vary smoothly over the index of the functional response. It accommodates densely or sparsely observed functional responses and predictors which may be observed with additional error and includes both spline-based and functional principal component-based terms. Estimation and inference in this framework is based on standard additive mixed models, allowing us to take advantage of established methods and robust, flexible algorithms. We provide easy-to-use open source software in the pffr() function for the R-package refund. Simulations show that the proposed method recovers relevant effects reliably, handles small sample sizes well and also scales to larger data sets. Applications with spatially and longitudinally observed functional data demonstrate the flexibility in modeling and interpretability of results of our approach. PMID:26347592

Functional Additive Mixed Models.

PubMed

Scheipl, Fabian; Staicu, Ana-Maria; Greven, Sonja

2015-04-01

We propose an extensive framework for additive regression models for correlated functional responses, allowing for multiple partially nested or crossed functional random effects with flexible correlation structures for, e.g., spatial, temporal, or longitudinal functional data. Additionally, our framework includes linear and nonlinear effects of functional and scalar covariates that may vary smoothly over the index of the functional response. It accommodates densely or sparsely observed functional responses and predictors which may be observed with additional error and includes both spline-based and functional principal component-based terms. Estimation and inference in this framework is based on standard additive mixed models, allowing us to take advantage of established methods and robust, flexible algorithms. We provide easy-to-use open source software in the pffr() function for the R-package refund. Simulations show that the proposed method recovers relevant effects reliably, handles small sample sizes well and also scales to larger data sets. Applications with spatially and longitudinally observed functional data demonstrate the flexibility in modeling and interpretability of results of our approach.

Scaling tunable network model to reproduce the density-driven superlinear relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Liang; Shan, Xiaoya; Qin, Yuhao; Yu, Senbin; Xu, Lida; Gao, Zi-You

2018-03-01

Previous works have shown the universality of allometric scaling under total and density values at the city level, but our understanding of the size effects of regions on the universality of allometric scaling remains inadequate. Here, we revisit the scaling relations between the gross domestic production (GDP) and the population based on the total and density values and first reveal that the allometric scaling under density values for different regions is universal. The scaling exponent β under the density value is in the range of (1.0, 2.0], which unexpectedly exceeds the range observed by Pan et al. [Nat. Commun. 4, 1961 (2013)]. For the wider range, we propose a network model based on a 2D lattice space with the spatial correlation factor α as a parameter. Numerical experiments prove that the generated scaling exponent β in our model is fully tunable by the spatial correlation factor α. Our model will furnish a general platform for extensive urban and regional studies.

An observational assessment of the influence of mesoscale and submesoscale heterogeneity on ocean biogeochemical reactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Adrian P.; Lévy, Marina; van Gennip, Simon; Pardo, Silvia; Srokosz, Meric; Allen, John; Painter, Stuart C.; Pidcock, Roz

2015-09-01

Numerous observations demonstrate that considerable spatial variability exists in components of the marine planktonic ecosystem at the mesoscale and submesoscale (100 km-1 km). The causes and consequences of physical processes at these scales ("eddy advection") influencing biogeochemistry have received much attention. Less studied, the nonlinear nature of most ecological and biogeochemical interactions means that such spatial variability has consequences for regional estimates of processes including primary production and grazing, independent of the physical processes. This effect has been termed "eddy reactions." Models remain our most powerful tools for extrapolating hypotheses for biogeochemistry to global scales and to permit future projections. The spatial resolution of most climate and global biogeochemical models means that processes at the mesoscale and submesoscale are poorly resolved. Modeling work has previously suggested that the neglected eddy reactions may be almost as large as the mean field estimates in some cases. This study seeks to quantify the relative size of eddy and mean reactions observationally, using in situ and satellite data. For primary production, grazing, and zooplankton mortality the eddy reactions are between 7% and 15% of the mean reactions. These should be regarded as preliminary estimates to encourage further observational estimates and not taken as a justification for ignoring eddy reactions. Compared to modeling estimates, there are inconsistencies in the relative magnitude of eddy reactions and in correlations which are a major control on their magnitude. One possibility is that models exhibit much stronger spatial correlations than are found in reality, effectively amplifying the magnitude of eddy reactions.

A geostatistics-informed hierarchical sensitivity analysis method for complex groundwater flow and transport modeling: GEOSTATISTICAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Heng; Chen, Xingyuan; Ye, Ming

Sensitivity analysis is an important tool for quantifying uncertainty in the outputs of mathematical models, especially for complex systems with a high dimension of spatially correlated parameters. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis has gained popularity because it can quantify the relative contribution of uncertainty from different sources. However, its computational cost increases dramatically with the complexity of the considered model and the dimension of model parameters. In this study we developed a hierarchical sensitivity analysis method that (1) constructs an uncertainty hierarchy by analyzing the input uncertainty sources, and (2) accounts for the spatial correlation among parameters at each level ofmore » the hierarchy using geostatistical tools. The contribution of uncertainty source at each hierarchy level is measured by sensitivity indices calculated using the variance decomposition method. Using this methodology, we identified the most important uncertainty source for a dynamic groundwater flow and solute transport in model at the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford site. The results indicate that boundary conditions and permeability field contribute the most uncertainty to the simulated head field and tracer plume, respectively. The relative contribution from each source varied spatially and temporally as driven by the dynamic interaction between groundwater and river water at the site. By using a geostatistical approach to reduce the number of realizations needed for the sensitivity analysis, the computational cost of implementing the developed method was reduced to a practically manageable level. The developed sensitivity analysis method is generally applicable to a wide range of hydrologic and environmental problems that deal with high-dimensional spatially-distributed parameters.« less

The sensitivity of ecosystem service models to choices of input data and spatial resolution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Cohen, Erika; Ancona, Zachary H.; McNulty, Steven; Sun, Ge

2018-01-01

Although ecosystem service (ES) modeling has progressed rapidly in the last 10–15 years, comparative studies on data and model selection effects have become more common only recently. Such studies have drawn mixed conclusions about whether different data and model choices yield divergent results. In this study, we compared the results of different models to address these questions at national, provincial, and subwatershed scales in Rwanda. We compared results for carbon, water, and sediment as modeled using InVEST and WaSSI using (1) land cover data at 30 and 300 m resolution and (2) three different input land cover datasets. WaSSI and simpler InVEST models (carbon storage and annual water yield) were relatively insensitive to the choice of spatial resolution, but more complex InVEST models (seasonal water yield and sediment regulation) produced large differences when applied at differing resolution. Six out of nine ES metrics (InVEST annual and seasonal water yield and WaSSI) gave similar predictions for at least two different input land cover datasets. Despite differences in mean values when using different data sources and resolution, we found significant and highly correlated results when using Spearman's rank correlation, indicating consistent spatial patterns of high and low values. Our results confirm and extend conclusions of past studies, showing that in certain cases (e.g., simpler models and national-scale analyses), results can be robust to data and modeling choices. For more complex models, those with different output metrics, and subnational to site-based analyses in heterogeneous environments, data and model choices may strongly influence study findings.

Application of Poisson random effect models for highway network screening.

PubMed

Jiang, Ximiao; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Alamili, Samer

2014-02-01

In recent years, Bayesian random effect models that account for the temporal and spatial correlations of crash data became popular in traffic safety research. This study employs random effect Poisson Log-Normal models for crash risk hotspot identification. Both the temporal and spatial correlations of crash data were considered. Potential for Safety Improvement (PSI) were adopted as a measure of the crash risk. Using the fatal and injury crashes that occurred on urban 4-lane divided arterials from 2006 to 2009 in the Central Florida area, the random effect approaches were compared to the traditional Empirical Bayesian (EB) method and the conventional Bayesian Poisson Log-Normal model. A series of method examination tests were conducted to evaluate the performance of different approaches. These tests include the previously developed site consistence test, method consistence test, total rank difference test, and the modified total score test, as well as the newly proposed total safety performance measure difference test. Results show that the Bayesian Poisson model accounting for both temporal and spatial random effects (PTSRE) outperforms the model that with only temporal random effect, and both are superior to the conventional Poisson Log-Normal model (PLN) and the EB model in the fitting of crash data. Additionally, the method evaluation tests indicate that the PTSRE model is significantly superior to the PLN model and the EB model in consistently identifying hotspots during successive time periods. The results suggest that the PTSRE model is a superior alternative for road site crash risk hotspot identification. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial modeling of malaria incidence rates in Sistan and Baluchistan province, Islamic Republic of Iran.

PubMed

Salehi, Masoud; Mohammad, Kazem; Farahani, Mahmud M; Zeraati, Hojjat; Nourijelyani, Keramat; Zayeri, Farid

2008-12-01

To identify the effect of environmental factors on malaria risk, and to visualize spatial map of malaria standard incidence rates in Sistan and Baluchistan province, Islamic Republic of Iran. In this cross-sectional study, the data from 42,162 registered new malaria cases from 21 March 2001 (Iranian new year) to 21 of March 2006 were studied. To describe the statistical association between environmental factors and malaria risk, a generalized linear mixed model approach was utilized. In addition, we used the second ordered stationary Kriging, and a variogram to determine the appropriate spatial correlation structure among the malaria standard incidence rates, and provide a proper malaria risk map in the area under study. The obtained results from the spatial modeling revealed that humidity (p=0.0004), temperature (p<0.0001), and elevation (p<0.0001) were positively, and precipitation (p=0.0029) was inversely correlated with the malaria risk. Moreover, the malaria risk map based on the predicted values showed that the south part of this province (Baluchistan), has a higher risk of malaria, compared to the northern area (Sistan). Since the effective environmental factors on malaria risk are out of human's control, the health policy makers in this province should pay more attention to the areas with high temperature, elevation, and humidity, as well as, low rainfall districts.

Correlation functions in first-order phase transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrido, V.; Crespo, D.

1997-09-01

Most of the physical properties of systems underlying first-order phase transitions can be obtained from the spatial correlation functions. In this paper, we obtain expressions that allow us to calculate all the correlation functions from the droplet size distribution. Nucleation and growth kinetics is considered, and exact solutions are obtained for the case of isotropic growth by using self-similarity properties. The calculation is performed by using the particle size distribution obtained by a recently developed model (populational Kolmogorov-Johnson-Mehl-Avrami model). Since this model is less restrictive than that used in previously existing theories, the result is that the correlation functions can be obtained for any dependence of the kinetic parameters. The validity of the method is tested by comparison with the exact correlation functions, which had been obtained in the available cases by the time-cone method. Finally, the correlation functions corresponding to the microstructure developed in partitioning transformations are obtained.

Developing Vs30 site-condition maps by combining observations with geologic and topographic constraints

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, E.M.; Wald, D.J.

2012-01-01

Despite obvious limitations as a proxy for site amplification, the use of time-averaged shear-wave velocity over the top 30 m (VS30) remains widely practiced, most notably through its use as an explanatory variable in ground motion prediction equations (and thus hazard maps and ShakeMaps, among other applications). As such, we are developing an improved strategy for producing VS30 maps given the common observational constraints. Using the abundant VS30 measurements in Taiwan, we compare alternative mapping methods that combine topographic slope, surface geology, and spatial correlation structure. The different VS30 mapping algorithms are distinguished by the way that slope and geology are combined to define a spatial model of VS30. We consider the globally applicable slope-only model as a baseline to which we compare two methods of combining both slope and geology. For both hybrid approaches, we model spatial correlation structure of the residuals using the kriging-with-a-trend technique, which brings the map into closer agreement with the observations. Cross validation indicates that we can reduce the uncertainty of the VS30 map by up to 16% relative to the slope-only approach.

Spatial scan statistics for detection of multiple clusters with arbitrary shapes.

PubMed

Lin, Pei-Sheng; Kung, Yi-Hung; Clayton, Murray

2016-12-01

In applying scan statistics for public health research, it would be valuable to develop a detection method for multiple clusters that accommodates spatial correlation and covariate effects in an integrated model. In this article, we connect the concepts of the likelihood ratio (LR) scan statistic and the quasi-likelihood (QL) scan statistic to provide a series of detection procedures sufficiently flexible to apply to clusters of arbitrary shape. First, we use an independent scan model for detection of clusters and then a variogram tool to examine the existence of spatial correlation and regional variation based on residuals of the independent scan model. When the estimate of regional variation is significantly different from zero, a mixed QL estimating equation is developed to estimate coefficients of geographic clusters and covariates. We use the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure (1995) to find a threshold for p-values to address the multiple testing problem. A quasi-deviance criterion is used to regroup the estimated clusters to find geographic clusters with arbitrary shapes. We conduct simulations to compare the performance of the proposed method with other scan statistics. For illustration, the method is applied to enterovirus data from Taiwan. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

A GIS-based spatial correlation analysis for ambient air pollution and AECOPD hospitalizations in Jinan, China.

PubMed

Wang, Wenqiao; Ying, Yangyang; Wu, Quanyuan; Zhang, Haiping; Ma, Dedong; Xiao, Wei

2015-03-01

Acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) are important events during disease procedure. AECOPD have negative effect on patients' quality of life, symptoms and lung function, and result in high socioeconomic costs. Though previous studies have demonstrated the significant association between outdoor air pollution and AECOPD hospitalizations, little is known about the spatial relationship utilized a spatial analyzing technique- Geographical Information System (GIS). Using GIS to investigate the spatial association between ambient air pollution and AECOPD hospitalizations in Jinan City, 2009. 414 AECOPD hospitalization cases in Jinan, 2009 were enrolled in our analysis. Monthly concentrations of five monitored air pollutants (NO2, SO2, PM10, O3, CO) during January 2009-December 2009 were provided by Environmental Protection Agency of Shandong Province. Each individual was geocoded in ArcGIS10.0 software. The spatial distribution of five pollutants and the temporal-spatial specific air pollutants exposure level for each individual was estimated by ordinary Kriging model. Spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran's I) was employed to explore the spatial association between ambient air pollutants and AECOPD hospitalizations. A generalized linear model (GLM) using a Poisson distribution with log-link function was used to construct a core model. At residence, concentrations of SO2, PM10, NO2, CO, O3 and AECOPD hospitalization cases showed statistical significant spatially clustered. The Z-score of SO2, PM10, CO, O3, NO2 at residence is 15.88, 13.93, 12.60, 4.02, 2.44 respectively, while at workplace, concentrations of PM10, SO2, O3, CO and AECOPD hospitalization cases showed statistical significant spatially clustered. The Z-score of PM10, SO2, O3, CO at workplace is 11.39, 8.07, 6.10, and 5.08 respectively. After adjusting for potential confounders in the model, only the PM10 concentrations at workplace showed statistical significance, with a 10 μg/m(3) increase of PM10 at workplace associated with a 7% (95%CI: [3.3%, 10%]) increase of hospitalizations due to AECOPD. Ambient air pollution is correlated with AECOPD hospitalizations spatially. A 10 μg/m(3) increase of PM10 at workplace was associated with a 7% (95%CI: [3.3%, 10%]) increase of hospitalizations due to AECOPD in Jinan, 2009. As a spatial data processing tool, GIS has novel and great potential on air pollutants exposure assessment and spatial analysis in AECOPD research. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial Random Effects Survival Models to Assess Geographical Inequalities in Dengue Fever Using Bayesian Approach: a Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astuti Thamrin, Sri; Taufik, Irfan

2018-03-01

Dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) is an infectious disease caused by dengue virus. The increasing number of people with DHF disease correlates with the neighbourhood, for example sub-districts, and the characteristics of the sub-districts are formed from individuals who are domiciled in the sub-districts. Data containing individuals and sub-districts is a hierarchical data structure, called multilevel analysis. Frequently encountered response variable of the data is the time until an event occurs. Multilevel and spatial models are being increasingly used to obtain substantive information on area-level inequalities in DHF survival. Using a case study approach, we report on the implications of using multilevel with spatial survival models to study geographical inequalities in all cause survival.

Improving evapotranspiration processes in distrubing hydrological models using Remote Sensing derived ET products.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abitew, T. A.; van Griensven, A.; Bauwens, W.

2015-12-01

Evapotranspiration is the main process in hydrology (on average around 60%), though has not received as much attention in the evaluation and calibration of hydrological models. In this study, Remote Sensing (RS) derived Evapotranspiration (ET) is used to improve the spatially distributed processes of ET of SWAT model application in the upper Mara basin (Kenya) and the Blue Nile basin (Ethiopia). The RS derived ET data is obtained from recently compiled global datasets (continuously monthly data at 1 km resolution from MOD16NBI,SSEBop,ALEXI,CMRSET models) and from regionally applied Energy Balance Models (for several cloud free days). The RS-RT data is used in different forms: Method 1) to evaluate spatially distributed evapotransiration model resultsMethod 2) to calibrate the evotranspiration processes in hydrological modelMethod 3) to bias-correct the evapotranpiration in hydrological model during simulation after changing the SWAT codesAn inter-comparison of the RS-ET products shows that at present there is a significant bias, but at the same time an agreement on the spatial variability of ET. The ensemble mean of different ET products seems the most realistic estimation and was further used in this study.The results show that:Method 1) the spatially mapped evapotranspiration of hydrological models shows clear differences when compared to RS derived evapotranspiration (low correlations). Especially evapotranspiration in forested areas is strongly underestimated compared to other land covers.Method 2) Calibration allows to improve the correlations between the RS and hydrological model results to some extent.Method 3) Bias-corrections are efficient in producing (sesonal or annual) evapotranspiration maps from hydrological models which are very similar to the patterns obtained from RS data.Though the bias-correction is very efficient, it is advised to improve the model results by better representing the ET processes by improved plant/crop computations, improved agricultural management practices or by providing improved meteorological data.

Exploring the effect of drought extent and interval on the Florida snail kite: Interplay between spatial and temporal scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mooij, Wolf M.; Bennetts, Robert E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2002-01-01

The paper aims at exploring the viability of the Florida snail kite population under various drought regimes in its wetland habitat. The population dynamics of snail kites are strongly linked with the hydrology of the system due to the dependence of this bird species on one exclusive prey species, the apple snail, which is negatively affected by a drying out of habitat. Based on empirical evidence, it has been hypothesised that the viability of the snail kite population critically depends not only on the time interval between droughts, but also on the spatial extent of these droughts. A system wide drought is likely to result in reduced reproduction and increased mortality, whereas the birds can respond to local droughts by moving to sites where conditions are still favourable. This paper explores the implications of this hypothesis by means of a spatially-explicit individual-based model. The specific aim of the model is to study in a factorial design the dynamics of the kite population in relation to two scale parameters, the temporal interval between droughts and the spatial correlation between droughts. In the model high drought frequencies led to reduced numbers of kites. Also, habitat degradation due to prolonged periods of inundation led to lower predicted numbers of kites. Another main result was that when the spatial correlation between droughts was low, the model showed little variability in the predicted numbers of kites. But when droughts occurred mostly on a system wide level, environmental stochasticity strongly increased the stochasticity in kite numbers and in the worst case the viability of the kite population was seriously threatened.

Social stressors and air pollution across New York City communities: a spatial approach for assessing correlations among multiple exposures.

PubMed

Shmool, Jessie L C; Kubzansky, Laura D; Newman, Ogonnaya Dotson; Spengler, John; Shepard, Peggy; Clougherty, Jane E

2014-11-06

Recent toxicological and epidemiological evidence suggests that chronic psychosocial stress may modify pollution effects on health. Thus, there is increasing interest in refined methods for assessing and incorporating non-chemical exposures, including social stressors, into environmental health research, towards identifying whether and how psychosocial stress interacts with chemical exposures to influence health and health disparities. We present a flexible, GIS-based approach for examining spatial patterns within and among a range of social stressors, and their spatial relationships with air pollution, across New York City, towards understanding their combined effects on health. We identified a wide suite of administrative indicators of community-level social stressors (2008-2010), and applied simultaneous autoregressive models and factor analysis to characterize spatial correlations among social stressors, and between social stressors and air pollutants, using New York City Community Air Survey (NYCCAS) data (2008-2009). Finally, we provide an exploratory ecologic analysis evaluating possible modification of the relationship between nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and childhood asthma Emergency Department (ED) visit rates by social stressors, to demonstrate how the methods used to assess stressor exposure (and/or consequent psychosocial stress) may alter model results. Administrative indicators of a range of social stressors (e.g., high crime rate, residential crowding rate) were not consistently correlated (rho = - 0.44 to 0.89), nor were they consistently correlated with indicators of socioeconomic position (rho = - 0.54 to 0.89). Factor analysis using 26 stressor indicators suggested geographically distinct patterns of social stressors, characterized by three factors: violent crime and physical disorder, crowding and poor access to resources, and noise disruption and property crimes. In an exploratory ecologic analysis, these factors were differentially associated with area-average NO2 and childhood asthma ED visits. For example, only the 'violent crime and disorder' factor was significantly associated with asthma ED visits, and only the 'crowding and resource access' factor modified the association between area-level NO2 and asthma ED visits. This spatial approach enabled quantification of complex spatial patterning and confounding between chemical and non-chemical exposures, and can inform study design for epidemiological studies of separate and combined effects of multiple urban exposures.

Evaluating spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality for recreational fisheries with limited catch data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Li, Yan; Wagner, Tyler; Jiao, Yan; Lorantas, Robert M.; Murphy, Cheryl

2018-01-01

Understanding the spatial and temporal variability in life-history traits among populations is essential for the management of recreational fisheries. However, valuable freshwater recreational fish species often suffer from a lack of catch information. In this study, we demonstrated the use of an approach to estimate the spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality in the absence of catch data and apply the method to riverine smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) populations in Pennsylvania, USA. Our approach included a growth analysis and a length-based analysis that estimates mortality. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, we examined spatial variability in growth and mortality by assuming parameters vary spatially but remain constant over time and temporal variability by assuming parameters vary spatially and temporally. The estimated growth and mortality of smallmouth bass showed substantial variability over time and across rivers. We explored the relationships of the estimated growth and mortality with spring water temperature and spring flow. Growth rate was likely to be positively correlated with these two factors, while young mortality was likely to be positively correlated with spring flow. The spatially and temporally varying growth and mortality suggest that smallmouth bass populations across rivers may respond differently to management plans and disturbance such as environmental contamination and land-use change. The analytical approach can be extended to other freshwater recreational species that also lack of catch data. The approach could also be useful in developing population assessments with erroneous catch data or be used as a model sensitivity scenario to verify traditional models even when catch data are available.

Effects of spatial heterogeneity on butterfly species richness in Rocky Mountain National Park, CO, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kumar, S.; Simonson, S.E.; Stohlgren, T.J.

2009-01-01

We investigated butterfly responses to plot-level characteristics (plant species richness, vegetation height, and range in NDVI [normalized difference vegetation index]) and spatial heterogeneity in topography and landscape patterns (composition and configuration) at multiple spatial scales. Stratified random sampling was used to collect data on butterfly species richness from seventy-six 20 ?? 50 m plots. The plant species richness and average vegetation height data were collected from 76 modified-Whittaker plots overlaid on 76 butterfly plots. Spatial heterogeneity around sample plots was quantified by measuring topographic variables and landscape metrics at eight spatial extents (radii of 300, 600 to 2,400 m). The number of butterfly species recorded was strongly positively correlated with plant species richness, proportion of shrubland and mean patch size of shrubland. Patterns in butterfly species richness were negatively correlated with other variables including mean patch size, average vegetation height, elevation, and range in NDVI. The best predictive model selected using Akaike's Information Criterion corrected for small sample size (AICc), explained 62% of the variation in butterfly species richness at the 2,100 m spatial extent. Average vegetation height and mean patch size were among the best predictors of butterfly species richness. The models that included plot-level information and topographic variables explained relatively less variation in butterfly species richness, and were improved significantly after including landscape metrics. Our results suggest that spatial heterogeneity greatly influences patterns in butterfly species richness, and that it should be explicitly considered in conservation and management actions. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Electromagnetic Compatibility Testing Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trost, Thomas F.; Mitra, Atindra K.

1996-01-01

This report discusses the results on analytical models and measurement and simulation of statistical properties from a study of microwave reverberation (mode-stirred) chambers performed at Texas Tech University. Two analytical models of power transfer vs. frequency in a chamber, one for antenna-to-antenna transfer and the other for antenna to D-dot sensor, were experimentally validated in our chamber. Two examples are presented of the measurement and calculation of chamber Q, one for each of the models. Measurements of EM power density validate a theoretical probability distribution on and away from the chamber walls and also yield a distribution with larger standard deviation at frequencies below the range of validity of the theory. Measurements of EM power density at pairs of points which validate a theoretical spatial correlation function on the chamber walls and also yield a correlation function with larger correlation length, R(sub corr), at frequencies below the range of validity of the theory. A numerical simulation, employing a rectangular cavity with a moving wall shows agreement with the measurements. The determination that the lowest frequency at which the theoretical spatial correlation function is valid in our chamber is considerably higher than the lowest frequency recommended by current guidelines for utilizing reverberation chambers in EMC testing. Two suggestions have been made for future studies related to EMC testing.

Explaining variation in tropical plant community composition: influence of environmental and spatial data quality.

PubMed

Jones, Mirkka M; Tuomisto, Hanna; Borcard, Daniel; Legendre, Pierre; Clark, David B; Olivas, Paulo C

2008-03-01

The degree to which variation in plant community composition (beta-diversity) is predictable from environmental variation, relative to other spatial processes, is of considerable current interest. We addressed this question in Costa Rican rain forest pteridophytes (1,045 plots, 127 species). We also tested the effect of data quality on the results, which has largely been overlooked in earlier studies. To do so, we compared two alternative spatial models [polynomial vs. principal coordinates of neighbour matrices (PCNM)] and ten alternative environmental models (all available environmental variables vs. four subsets, and including their polynomials vs. not). Of the environmental data types, soil chemistry contributed most to explaining pteridophyte community variation, followed in decreasing order of contribution by topography, soil type and forest structure. Environmentally explained variation increased moderately when polynomials of the environmental variables were included. Spatially explained variation increased substantially when the multi-scale PCNM spatial model was used instead of the traditional, broad-scale polynomial spatial model. The best model combination (PCNM spatial model and full environmental model including polynomials) explained 32% of pteridophyte community variation, after correcting for the number of sampling sites and explanatory variables. Overall evidence for environmental control of beta-diversity was strong, and the main floristic gradients detected were correlated with environmental variation at all scales encompassed by the study (c. 100-2,000 m). Depending on model choice, however, total explained variation differed more than fourfold, and the apparent relative importance of space and environment could be reversed. Therefore, we advocate a broader recognition of the impacts that data quality has on analysis results. A general understanding of the relative contributions of spatial and environmental processes to species distributions and beta-diversity requires that methodological artefacts are separated from real ecological differences.

Comparison of MODIS and SWAT evapotranspiration over a complex terrain at different spatial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abiodun, Olanrewaju O.; Guan, Huade; Post, Vincent E. A.; Batelaan, Okke

2018-05-01

In most hydrological systems, evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation are the largest components of the water balance, which are difficult to estimate, particularly over complex terrain. In recent decades, the advent of remotely sensed data based ET algorithms and distributed hydrological models has provided improved spatially upscaled ET estimates. However, information on the performance of these methods at various spatial scales is limited. This study compares the ET from the MODIS remotely sensed ET dataset (MOD16) with the ET estimates from a SWAT hydrological model on graduated spatial scales for the complex terrain of the Sixth Creek Catchment of the Western Mount Lofty Ranges, South Australia. ET from both models was further compared with the coarser-resolution AWRA-L model at catchment scale. The SWAT model analyses are performed on daily timescales with a 6-year calibration period (2000-2005) and 7-year validation period (2007-2013). Differences in ET estimation between the SWAT and MOD16 methods of up to 31, 19, 15, 11 and 9 % were observed at respectively 1, 4, 9, 16 and 25 km2 spatial resolutions. Based on the results of the study, a spatial scale of confidence of 4 km2 for catchment-scale evapotranspiration is suggested in complex terrain. Land cover differences, HRU parameterisation in AWRA-L and catchment-scale averaging of input climate data in the SWAT semi-distributed model were identified as the principal sources of weaker correlations at higher spatial resolution.

Parameterizing the Spatial Markov Model from Breakthrough Curve Data Alone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherman, T.; Bolster, D.; Fakhari, A.; Miller, S.; Singha, K.

2017-12-01

The spatial Markov model (SMM) uses a correlated random walk and has been shown to effectively capture anomalous transport in porous media systems; in the SMM, particles' future trajectories are correlated to their current velocity. It is common practice to use a priori Lagrangian velocity statistics obtained from high resolution simulations to determine a distribution of transition probabilities (correlation) between velocity classes that govern predicted transport behavior; however, this approach is computationally cumbersome. Here, we introduce a methodology to quantify velocity correlation from Breakthrough (BTC) curve data alone; discretizing two measured BTCs into a set of arrival times and reverse engineering the rules of the SMM allows for prediction of velocity correlation, thereby enabling parameterization of the SMM in studies where Lagrangian velocity statistics are not available. The introduced methodology is applied to estimate velocity correlation from BTCs measured in high resolution simulations, thus allowing for a comparison of estimated parameters with known simulated values. Results show 1) estimated transition probabilities agree with simulated values and 2) using the SMM with estimated parameterization accurately predicts BTCs downstream. Additionally, we include uncertainty measurements by calculating lower and upper estimates of velocity correlation, which allow for prediction of a range of BTCs. The simulated BTCs fall in the range of predicted BTCs. This research proposes a novel method to parameterize the SMM from BTC data alone, thereby reducing the SMM's computational costs and widening its applicability.

"Birds of a Feather" Fail Together: Exploring the Nature of Dependency in SME Defaults.

PubMed

Calabrese, Raffaella; Andreeva, Galina; Ansell, Jake

2017-08-11

This article studies the effects of incorporating the interdependence among London small business defaults into a risk analysis framework using the data just before the financial crisis. We propose an extension from standard scoring models to take into account the spatial dimensions and the demographic characteristics of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), such as legal form, industry sector, and number of employees. We estimate spatial probit models using different distance matrices based only on the spatial location or on an interaction between spatial locations and demographic characteristics. We find that the interdependence or contagion component defined on spatial and demographic characteristics is significant and that it improves the ability to predict defaults of non-start-ups in London. Furthermore, including contagion effects among SMEs alters the parameter estimates of risk determinants. The approach can be extended to other risk analysis applications where spatial risk may incorporate correlation based on other aspects. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

[Analysis of influence on spatial distribution of fishing ground for Antarctic krill fishery in the northern South Shetland Islands based on GWR model].

PubMed

Chen, Lyu Feng; Zhu, Guo Ping

2018-03-01

Based on Antarctic krill fishery and marine environmental data collected by scientific observers, using geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, we analyzed the effects of the factors with spatial attributes, i.e., depth of krill swarm (DKS) and distance from fishing position to shore (DTS), and sea surface temperature (SST), on the spatial distribution of fishing ground in the northern South Shetland Islands. The results showed that there was no significant aggregation in spatial distribution of catch per unit fishing effort (CPUE). Spatial autocorrelations (positive) among three factors were observed in 2010 and 2013, but were not in 2012 and 2016. Results from GWR model showed that the extent for the impacts on spatial distribution of CPUEs varied among those three factors, following the order DKS>SST>DTS. Compared to the DKS and DTS, the impact of SST on the spatial distribution of CPUEs presented adverse trend in the eastern and western parts of the South Shetland Islands. Negative correlations occurred for the spatial effects of DKS and DTS on distribution of CPUEs, though with inter-annual and regional variation. Our results provide metho-dological reference for researches on the underlying mechanism for fishing ground formation for Antarctic krill fishery.

Sampling design for spatially distributed hydrogeologic and environmental processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christakos, G.; Olea, R.A.

1992-01-01

A methodology for the design of sampling networks over space is proposed. The methodology is based on spatial random field representations of nonhomogeneous natural processes, and on optimal spatial estimation techniques. One of the most important results of random field theory for physical sciences is its rationalization of correlations in spatial variability of natural processes. This correlation is extremely important both for interpreting spatially distributed observations and for predictive performance. The extent of site sampling and the types of data to be collected will depend on the relationship of subsurface variability to predictive uncertainty. While hypothesis formulation and initial identification of spatial variability characteristics are based on scientific understanding (such as knowledge of the physics of the underlying phenomena, geological interpretations, intuition and experience), the support offered by field data is statistically modelled. This model is not limited by the geometric nature of sampling and covers a wide range in subsurface uncertainties. A factorization scheme of the sampling error variance is derived, which possesses certain atttactive properties allowing significant savings in computations. By means of this scheme, a practical sampling design procedure providing suitable indices of the sampling error variance is established. These indices can be used by way of multiobjective decision criteria to obtain the best sampling strategy. Neither the actual implementation of the in-situ sampling nor the solution of the large spatial estimation systems of equations are necessary. The required values of the accuracy parameters involved in the network design are derived using reference charts (readily available for various combinations of data configurations and spatial variability parameters) and certain simple yet accurate analytical formulas. Insight is gained by applying the proposed sampling procedure to realistic examples related to sampling problems in two dimensions. ?? 1992.

Earth Radiation Budget Science, 1978. [conferences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

An earth radiation budget satellite system planned in order to understand climate on various temporal and spatial scales is considered. Topics discussed include: climate modeling, climate diagnostics, radiation modeling, radiation variability and correlation studies, cloudiness and the radiation budget, and radiation budget and related measurements in 1985 and beyond.

Spatial uncertainty analysis: Propagation of interpolation errors in spatially distributed models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phillips, D.L.; Marks, D.G.

1996-01-01

In simulation modelling, it is desirable to quantify model uncertainties and provide not only point estimates for output variables but confidence intervals as well. Spatially distributed physical and ecological process models are becoming widely used, with runs being made over a grid of points that represent the landscape. This requires input values at each grid point, which often have to be interpolated from irregularly scattered measurement sites, e.g., weather stations. Interpolation introduces spatially varying errors which propagate through the model We extended established uncertainty analysis methods to a spatial domain for quantifying spatial patterns of input variable interpolation errors and how they propagate through a model to affect the uncertainty of the model output. We applied this to a model of potential evapotranspiration (PET) as a demonstration. We modelled PET for three time periods in 1990 as a function of temperature, humidity, and wind on a 10-km grid across the U.S. portion of the Columbia River Basin. Temperature, humidity, and wind speed were interpolated using kriging from 700- 1000 supporting data points. Kriging standard deviations (SD) were used to quantify the spatially varying interpolation uncertainties. For each of 5693 grid points, 100 Monte Carlo simulations were done, using the kriged values of temperature, humidity, and wind, plus random error terms determined by the kriging SDs and the correlations of interpolation errors among the three variables. For the spring season example, kriging SDs averaged 2.6??C for temperature, 8.7% for relative humidity, and 0.38 m s-1 for wind. The resultant PET estimates had coefficients of variation (CVs) ranging from 14% to 27% for the 10-km grid cells. Maps of PET means and CVs showed the spatial patterns of PET with a measure of its uncertainty due to interpolation of the input variables. This methodology should be applicable to a variety of spatially distributed models using interpolated inputs.

Identification and Simulation of Subsurface Soil patterns using hidden Markov random fields and remote sensing and geophysical EMI data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hui; Wellmann, Florian; Verweij, Elizabeth; von Hebel, Christian; van der Kruk, Jan

2017-04-01

Lateral and vertical spatial heterogeneity of subsurface properties such as soil texture and structure influences the available water and resource supply for crop growth. High-resolution mapping of subsurface structures using non-invasive geo-referenced geophysical measurements, like electromagnetic induction (EMI), enables a characterization of 3D soil structures, which have shown correlations to remote sensing information of the crop states. The benefit of EMI is that it can return 3D subsurface information, however the spatial dimensions are limited due to the labor intensive measurement procedure. Although active and passive sensors mounted on air- or space-borne platforms return 2D images, they have much larger spatial dimensions. Combining both approaches provides us with a potential pathway to extend the detailed 3D geophysical information to a larger area by using remote sensing information. In this study, we aim at extracting and providing insights into the spatial and statistical correlation of the geophysical and remote sensing observations of the soil/vegetation continuum system. To this end, two key points need to be addressed: 1) how to detect and recognize the geometric patterns (i.e., spatial heterogeneity) from multiple data sets, and 2) how to quantitatively describe the statistical correlation between remote sensing information and geophysical measurements. In the current study, the spatial domain is restricted to shallow depths up to 3 meters, and the geostatistical database contains normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from RapidEye satellite images and apparent electrical conductivities (ECa) measured from multi-receiver EMI sensors for nine depths of exploration ranging from 0-2.7 m. The integrated data sets are mapped into both the physical space (i.e. the spatial domain) and feature space (i.e. a two-dimensional space framed by the NDVI and the ECa data). Hidden Markov Random Fields (HMRF) are employed to model the underlying heterogeneities in spatial domain and finite Gaussian mixture models are adopted to quantitatively describe the statistical patterns in terms of center vectors and covariance matrices in feature space. A recently developed parallel stochastic clustering algorithm is adopted to implement the HMRF models and the Markov chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian inference. Certain spatial patterns such as buried paleo-river channels covered by shallow sediments are investigated as typical examples. The results indicate that the geometric patterns of the subsurface heterogeneity can be represented and quantitatively characterized by HMRF. Furthermore, the statistical patterns of the NDVI and the EMI data from the soil/vegetation-continuum system can be inferred and analyzed in a quantitative manner.

A Methodology for the Assessment of Unconventional (Continuous) Resources with an Application to the Greater Natural Buttes Gas Field, Utah

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olea, Ricardo A., E-mail: olea@usgs.gov; Cook, Troy A.; Coleman, James L.

2010-12-15

The Greater Natural Buttes tight natural gas field is an unconventional (continuous) accumulation in the Uinta Basin, Utah, that began production in the early 1950s from the Upper Cretaceous Mesaverde Group. Three years later, production was extended to the Eocene Wasatch Formation. With the exclusion of 1100 non-productive ('dry') wells, we estimate that the final recovery from the 2500 producing wells existing in 2007 will be about 1.7 trillion standard cubic feet (TSCF) (48.2 billion cubic meters (BCM)). The use of estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per well is common in assessments of unconventional resources, and it is one of themore » main sources of information to forecast undiscovered resources. Each calculated recovery value has an associated drainage area that generally varies from well to well and that can be mathematically subdivided into elemental subareas of constant size and shape called cells. Recovery per 5-acre cells at Greater Natural Buttes shows spatial correlation; hence, statistical approaches that ignore this correlation when inferring EUR values for untested cells do not take full advantage of all the information contained in the data. More critically, resulting models do not match the style of spatial EUR fluctuations observed in nature. This study takes a new approach by applying spatial statistics to model geographical variation of cell EUR taking into account spatial correlation and the influence of fractures. We applied sequential indicator simulation to model non-productive cells, while spatial mapping of cell EUR was obtained by applying sequential Gaussian simulation to provide multiple versions of reality (realizations) having equal chances of being the correct model. For each realization, summation of EUR in cells not drained by the existing wells allowed preparation of a stochastic prediction of undiscovered resources, which range between 2.6 and 3.4 TSCF (73.6 and 96.3 BCM) with a mean of 2.9 TSCF (82.1 BCM) for Greater Natural Buttes. A second approach illustrates the application of multiple-point simulation to assess a hypothetical frontier area for which there is no production information but which is regarded as being similar to Greater Natural Buttes.« less

Poverty, health and satellite-derived vegetation indices: their inter-spatial relationship in West Africa

PubMed Central

Sedda, Luigi; Tatem, Andrew J.; Morley, David W.; Atkinson, Peter M.; Wardrop, Nicola A.; Pezzulo, Carla; Sorichetta, Alessandro; Kuleszo, Joanna; Rogers, David J.

2015-01-01

Background Previous analyses have shown the individual correlations between poverty, health and satellite-derived vegetation indices such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). However, generally these analyses did not explore the statistical interconnections between poverty, health outcomes and NDVI. Methods In this research aspatial methods (principal component analysis) and spatial models (variography, factorial kriging and cokriging) were applied to investigate the correlations and spatial relationships between intensity of poverty, health (expressed as child mortality and undernutrition), and NDVI for a large area of West Africa. Results This research showed that the intensity of poverty (and hence child mortality and nutrition) varies inversely with NDVI. From the spatial point-of-view, similarities in the spatial variation of intensity of poverty and NDVI were found. Conclusions These results highlight the utility of satellite-based metrics for poverty models including health and ecological components and, in general for large scale analysis, estimation and optimisation of multidimensional poverty metrics. However, it also stresses the need for further studies on the causes of the association between NDVI, health and poverty. Once these relationships are confirmed and better understood, the presence of this ecological component in poverty metrics has the potential to facilitate the analysis of the impacts of climate change on the rural populations afflicted by poverty and child mortality. PMID:25733559

Emergence of increased frequency and severity of multiple infections by viruses due to spatial clustering of hosts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Bradford P.; Penington, Catherine J.; Weitz, Joshua S.

2016-12-01

Multiple virus particles can infect a target host cell. Such multiple infections (MIs) have significant and varied ecological and evolutionary consequences for both virus and host populations. Yet, the in situ rates and drivers of MIs in virus-microbe systems remain largely unknown. Here, we develop an individual-based model (IBM) of virus-microbe dynamics to probe how spatial interactions drive the frequency and nature of MIs. In our IBMs, we identify increasingly spatially correlated clusters of viruses given sufficient decreases in viral movement. We also identify increasingly spatially correlated clusters of viruses and clusters of hosts given sufficient increases in viral infectivity. The emergence of clusters is associated with an increase in multiply infected hosts as compared to expectations from an analogous mean field model. We also observe long-tails in the distribution of the multiplicity of infection in contrast to mean field expectations that such events are exponentially rare. We show that increases in both the frequency and severity of MIs occur when viruses invade a cluster of uninfected microbes. We contend that population-scale enhancement of MI arises from an aggregate of invasion dynamics over a distribution of microbe cluster sizes. Our work highlights the need to consider spatially explicit interactions as a potentially key driver underlying the ecology and evolution of virus-microbe communities.

Scale-free correlations in the geographical spreading of obesity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallos, Lazaros; Barttfeld, Pablo; Havlin, Shlomo; Sigman, Mariano; Makse, Hernan

2012-02-01

Obesity levels have been universally increasing. A crucial problem is to determine the influence of global and local drivers behind the obesity epidemic, to properly guide effective policies. Despite the numerous factors that affect the obesity evolution, we show a remarkable regularity expressed in a predictable pattern of spatial long-range correlations in the geographical spreading of obesity. We study the spatial clustering of obesity and a number of related health and economic indicators, and we use statistical physics methods to characterize the growth of the resulting clusters. The resulting scaling exponents allow us to broadly classify these indicators into two separate universality classes, weakly or strongly correlated. Weak correlations are found in generic human activity such as population distribution and the growth of the whole economy. Strong correlations are recovered, among others, for obesity, diabetes, and the food industry sectors associated with food consumption. Obesity turns out to be a global problem where local details are of little importance. The long-range correlations suggest influence that extends to large scales, hinting that the physical model of obesity clustering can be mapped to a long-range correlated percolation process.

Precipitation From a Multiyear Database of Convection-Allowing WRF Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goines, D. C.; Kennedy, A. D.

2018-03-01

Convection-allowing models (CAMs) have become frequently used for operational forecasting and, more recently, have been utilized for general circulation model downscaling. CAM forecasts have typically been analyzed for a few case studies or over short time periods, but this limits the ability to judge the overall skill of deterministic simulations. Analysis over long time periods can yield a better understanding of systematic model error. Four years of warm season (April-August, 2010-2013)-simulated precipitation has been accumulated from two Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models with 4 km grid spacing. The simulations were provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), each with different dynamic cores and parameterization schemes. These simulations are evaluated against the NCEP Stage-IV precipitation data set with similar 4 km grid spacing. The spatial distribution and diurnal cycle of precipitation in the central United States are analyzed using Hovmöller diagrams, grid point correlations, and traditional verification skill scoring (i.e., ETS; Equitable Threat Score). Although NCEP-WRF had a high positive error in total precipitation, spatial characteristics were similar to observations. For example, the spatial distribution of NCEP-WRF precipitation correlated better than NSSL-WRF for the Northern Plains. Hovmöller results exposed a delay in initiation and decay of diurnal precipitation by NCEP-WRF while both models had difficulty in reproducing the timing and location of propagating precipitation. ETS was highest for NSSL-WRF in all domains at all times. ETS was also higher in areas of propagating precipitation compared to areas of unorganized diurnal scattered precipitation. Monthly analysis identified unique differences between the two models in their abilities to correctly simulate the spatial distribution and zonal motion of precipitation through the warm season.

Retention capacity of correlated surfaces.

PubMed

Schrenk, K J; Araújo, N A M; Ziff, R M; Herrmann, H J

2014-06-01

We extend the water retention model [C. L. Knecht et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 108, 045703 (2012)] to correlated random surfaces. We find that the retention capacity of discrete random landscapes is strongly affected by spatial correlations among the heights. This phenomenon is related to the emergence of power-law scaling in the lake volume distribution. We also solve the uncorrelated case exactly for a small lattice and present bounds on the retention of uncorrelated landscapes.

Impact of spatially correlated pore-scale heterogeneity on drying porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgman, Oshri; Fantinel, Paolo; Lühder, Wieland; Goehring, Lucas; Holtzman, Ran

2017-07-01

We study the effect of spatially-correlated heterogeneity on isothermal drying of porous media. We combine a minimal pore-scale model with microfluidic experiments with the same pore geometry. Our simulated drying behavior compares favorably with experiments, considering the large sensitivity of the emergent behavior to the uncertainty associated with even small manufacturing errors. We show that increasing the correlation length in particle sizes promotes preferential drying of clusters of large pores, prolonging liquid connectivity and surface wetness and thus higher drying rates for longer periods. Our findings improve our quantitative understanding of how pore-scale heterogeneity impacts drying, which plays a role in a wide range of processes ranging from fuel cells to curing of paints and cements to global budgets of energy, water and solutes in soils.

Cooperation and age structure in spatial games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhen; Wang, Zhen; Zhu, Xiaodan; Arenzon, Jeferson J.

2012-01-01

We study the evolution of cooperation in evolutionary spatial games when the payoff correlates with the increasing age of players (the level of correlation is set through a single parameter, α). The demographic heterogeneous age distribution, directly affecting the outcome of the game, is thus shown to be responsible for enhancing the cooperative behavior in the population. In particular, moderate values of α allow cooperators not only to survive but to outcompete defectors, even when the temptation to defect is large and the ageless, standard α=0 model does not sustain cooperation. The interplay between age structure and noise is also considered, and we obtain the conditions for optimal levels of cooperation.

Hyperspectral Image Denoising Using a Nonlocal Spectral Spatial Principal Component Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, D.; Xu, L.; Peng, J.; Ma, J.

2018-04-01

Hyperspectral images (HSIs) denoising is a critical research area in image processing duo to its importance in improving the quality of HSIs, which has a negative impact on object detection and classification and so on. In this paper, we develop a noise reduction method based on principal component analysis (PCA) for hyperspectral imagery, which is dependent on the assumption that the noise can be removed by selecting the leading principal components. The main contribution of paper is to introduce the spectral spatial structure and nonlocal similarity of the HSIs into the PCA denoising model. PCA with spectral spatial structure can exploit spectral correlation and spatial correlation of HSI by using 3D blocks instead of 2D patches. Nonlocal similarity means the similarity between the referenced pixel and other pixels in nonlocal area, where Mahalanobis distance algorithm is used to estimate the spatial spectral similarity by calculating the distance in 3D blocks. The proposed method is tested on both simulated and real hyperspectral images, the results demonstrate that the proposed method is superior to several other popular methods in HSI denoising.

Relationship Study on Land Use Spatial Distribution Structure and Energy-Related Carbon Emission Intensity in Different Land Use Types of Guangdong, China, 1996–2008

PubMed Central

Huang, Yi; Yang, Lei

2013-01-01

This study attempts to discuss the relationship between land use spatial distribution structure and energy-related carbon emission intensity in Guangdong during 1996–2008. We quantized the spatial distribution structure of five land use types including agricultural land, industrial land, residential and commercial land, traffic land, and other land through applying spatial Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient. Then the corresponding energy-related carbon emissions in each type of land were calculated in the study period. Through building the reasonable regression models, we found that the concentration degree of industrial land is negatively correlated with carbon emission intensity in the long term, whereas the concentration degree is positively correlated with carbon emission intensity in agricultural land, residential and commercial land, traffic land, and other land. The results also indicate that land use spatial distribution structure affects carbon emission intensity more intensively than energy efficiency and production efficiency do. These conclusions provide valuable reference to develop comprehensive policies for energy conservation and carbon emission reduction in a new perspective. PMID:23476128

Relationship study on land use spatial distribution structure and energy-related carbon emission intensity in different land use types of Guangdong, China, 1996-2008.

PubMed

Huang, Yi; Xia, Bin; Yang, Lei

2013-01-01

This study attempts to discuss the relationship between land use spatial distribution structure and energy-related carbon emission intensity in Guangdong during 1996-2008. We quantized the spatial distribution structure of five land use types including agricultural land, industrial land, residential and commercial land, traffic land, and other land through applying spatial Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient. Then the corresponding energy-related carbon emissions in each type of land were calculated in the study period. Through building the reasonable regression models, we found that the concentration degree of industrial land is negatively correlated with carbon emission intensity in the long term, whereas the concentration degree is positively correlated with carbon emission intensity in agricultural land, residential and commercial land, traffic land, and other land. The results also indicate that land use spatial distribution structure affects carbon emission intensity more intensively than energy efficiency and production efficiency do. These conclusions provide valuable reference to develop comprehensive policies for energy conservation and carbon emission reduction in a new perspective.

Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2014-01-01

Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

Spatial versus sequential correlations for random access coding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavakoli, Armin; Marques, Breno; Pawłowski, Marcin; Bourennane, Mohamed

2016-03-01

Random access codes are important for a wide range of applications in quantum information. However, their implementation with quantum theory can be made in two very different ways: (i) by distributing data with strong spatial correlations violating a Bell inequality or (ii) using quantum communication channels to create stronger-than-classical sequential correlations between state preparation and measurement outcome. Here we study this duality of the quantum realization. We present a family of Bell inequalities tailored to the task at hand and study their quantum violations. Remarkably, we show that the use of spatial and sequential quantum correlations imposes different limitations on the performance of quantum random access codes: Sequential correlations can outperform spatial correlations. We discuss the physics behind the observed discrepancy between spatial and sequential quantum correlations.

RSS Fingerprint Based Indoor Localization Using Sparse Representation with Spatio-Temporal Constraint

PubMed Central

Piao, Xinglin; Zhang, Yong; Li, Tingshu; Hu, Yongli; Liu, Hao; Zhang, Ke; Ge, Yun

2016-01-01

The Received Signal Strength (RSS) fingerprint-based indoor localization is an important research topic in wireless network communications. Most current RSS fingerprint-based indoor localization methods do not explore and utilize the spatial or temporal correlation existing in fingerprint data and measurement data, which is helpful for improving localization accuracy. In this paper, we propose an RSS fingerprint-based indoor localization method by integrating the spatio-temporal constraints into the sparse representation model. The proposed model utilizes the inherent spatial correlation of fingerprint data in the fingerprint matching and uses the temporal continuity of the RSS measurement data in the localization phase. Experiments on the simulated data and the localization tests in the real scenes show that the proposed method improves the localization accuracy and stability effectively compared with state-of-the-art indoor localization methods. PMID:27827882

Comparison of statistical and theoretical habitat models for conservation planning: the benefit of ensemble prediction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones-Farrand, D. Todd; Fearer, Todd M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Thompson, Frank R.; Nelson, Mark D.; Tirpak, John M.

2011-01-01

Selection of a modeling approach is an important step in the conservation planning process, but little guidance is available. We compared two statistical and three theoretical habitat modeling approaches representing those currently being used for avian conservation planning at landscape and regional scales: hierarchical spatial count (HSC), classification and regression tree (CRT), habitat suitability index (HSI), forest structure database (FS), and habitat association database (HA). We focused our comparison on models for five priority forest-breeding species in the Central Hardwoods Bird Conservation Region: Acadian Flycatcher, Cerulean Warbler, Prairie Warbler, Red-headed Woodpecker, and Worm-eating Warbler. Lacking complete knowledge on the distribution and abundance of each species with which we could illuminate differences between approaches and provide strong grounds for recommending one approach over another, we used two approaches to compare models: rank correlations among model outputs and comparison of spatial correspondence. In general, rank correlations were significantly positive among models for each species, indicating general agreement among the models. Worm-eating Warblers had the highest pairwise correlations, all of which were significant (P , 0.05). Red-headed Woodpeckers had the lowest agreement among models, suggesting greater uncertainty in the relative conservation value of areas within the region. We assessed model uncertainty by mapping the spatial congruence in priorities (i.e., top ranks) resulting from each model for each species and calculating the coefficient of variation across model ranks for each location. This allowed identification of areas more likely to be good targets of conservation effort for a species, those areas that were least likely, and those in between where uncertainty is higher and thus conservation action incorporates more risk. Based on our results, models developed independently for the same purpose (conservation planning for a particular species in a particular geography) yield different answers and thus different conservation strategies. We assert that using only one habitat model (even if validated) as the foundation of a conservation plan is risky. Using multiple models (i.e., ensemble prediction) can reduce uncertainty and increase efficacy of conservation action when models corroborate one another and increase understanding of the system when they do not.

Spatial heterogeneity study of vegetation coverage at Heihe River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Lijuan; Zhong, Bo; Guo, Liyu; Zhao, Xiangwei

2014-11-01

Spatial heterogeneity of the animal-landscape system has three major components: heterogeneity of resource distributions in the physical environment, heterogeneity of plant tissue chemistry, heterogeneity of movement modes by the animal. Furthermore, all three different types of heterogeneity interact each other and can either reinforce or offset one another, thereby affecting system stability and dynamics. In previous studies, the study areas are investigated by field sampling, which costs a large amount of manpower. In addition, uncertain in sampling affects the quality of field data, which leads to unsatisfactory results during the entire study. In this study, remote sensing data is used to guide the sampling for research on heterogeneity of vegetation coverage to avoid errors caused by randomness of field sampling. Semi-variance and fractal dimension analysis are used to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation coverage at Heihe River Basin. The spherical model with nugget is used to fit the semivariogram of vegetation coverage. Based on the experiment above, it is found, (1)there is a strong correlation between vegetation coverage and distance of vegetation populations within the range of 0-28051.3188m at Heihe River Basin, but the correlation loses suddenly when the distance greater than 28051.3188m. (2)The degree of spatial heterogeneity of vegetation coverage at Heihe River Basin is medium. (3)Spatial distribution variability of vegetation occurs mainly on small scales. (4)The degree of spatial autocorrelation is 72.29% between 25% and 75%, which means that spatial correlation of vegetation coverage at Heihe River Basin is medium high.

Comparison of different interpolation methods for spatial distribution of soil organic carbon and some soil properties in the Black Sea backward region of Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Göl, Ceyhun; Bulut, Sinan; Bolat, Ferhat

2017-10-01

The purpose of this research is to compare the spatial variability of soil organic carbon (SOC) in four adjacent land uses including the cultivated area, the grassland area, the plantation area and the natural forest area in the semi - arid region of Black Sea backward region of Turkey. Some of the soil properties, including total nitrogen, SOC, soil organic matter, and bulk density were measured on a grid with a 50 m sampling distance on the top soil (0-15 cm depth). Accordingly, a total of 120 samples were taken from the four adjacent land uses. Data was analyzed using geostatistical methods. The methods used were: Block kriging (BK), co - kriging (CK) with organic matter, total nitrogen and bulk density as auxiliary variables and inverse distance weighting (IDW) methods with the power of 1, 2 and 4. The methods were compared using a performance criteria that included root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and the coefficient of correlation (r). The one - way ANOVA test showed that differences between the natural (0.6653 ± 0.2901) - plantation forest (0.7109 ± 0.2729) areas and the grassland (1.3964 ± 0.6828) - cultivated areas (1.5851 ± 0.5541) were statistically significant at 0.05 level (F = 28.462). The best model for describing spatially variation of SOC was CK with the lowest error criteria (RMSE = 0.3342, MAE = 0.2292) and the highest coefficient of correlation (r = 0.84). The spatial structure of SOC could be well described by the spherical model. The nugget effect indicated that SOC was moderately dependent on the study area. The error distributions of the model showed that the improved model was unbiased in predicting the spatial distribution of SOC. This study's results revealed that an explanatory variable linked SOC increased success of spatial interpolation methods. In subsequent studies, this case should be taken into account for reaching more accurate outputs.

Agreement of central site measurements and land use regression modeled oxidative potential of PM{sub 2.5} with personal exposure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Aileen, E-mail: Yang@uu.nl; Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Division Environmental Epidemiology, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80.178, 3508TD Utrecht; Hoek, Gerard

Oxidative potential (OP) of ambient particulate matter (PM) has been suggested as a health-relevant exposure metric. In order to use OP for exposure assessment, information is needed about how well central site OP measurements and modeled average OP at the home address reflect temporal and spatial variation of personal OP. We collected 96-hour personal, home outdoor and indoor PM{sub 2.5} samples from 15 volunteers living either at traffic, urban or regional background locations in Utrecht, the Netherlands. OP was also measured at one central reference site to account for temporal variations. OP was assessed using electron spin resonance (OP{sup ESR})more » and dithiothreitol (OP{sup DTT}). Spatial variation of average OP at the home address was modeled using land use regression (LUR) models. For both OP{sup ESR} and OP{sup DTT}, temporal correlations of central site measurements with home outdoor measurements were high (R>0.75), and moderate to high (R=0.49–0.70) with personal measurements. The LUR model predictions for OP correlated significantly with the home outdoor concentrations for OP{sup DTT} and OP{sup ESR} (R=0.65 and 0.62, respectively). LUR model predictions were moderately correlated with personal OP{sup DTT} measurements (R=0.50). Adjustment for indoor sources, such as vacuum cleaning and absence of fume-hood, improved the temporal and spatial agreement with measured personal exposure for OP{sup ESR}. OP{sup DTT} was not associated with any indoor sources. Our study results support the use of central site OP for exposure assessment of epidemiological studies focusing on short-term health effects. - Highlights: • Oxidative potential (OP) of PM was proposed as a health-relevant exposure metric. • We evaluated the relationship between measured and modeled outdoor and personal OP. • Temporal correlations of central site with personal OP are moderate to high. • Adjusting for indoor sources improved the agreement with personal OP. • Our results support the use of central site OP for short-term health effect studies.« less

Nonparametric Bayesian Segmentation of a Multivariate Inhomogeneous Space-Time Poisson Process.

PubMed

Ding, Mingtao; He, Lihan; Dunson, David; Carin, Lawrence

2012-12-01

A nonparametric Bayesian model is proposed for segmenting time-evolving multivariate spatial point process data. An inhomogeneous Poisson process is assumed, with a logistic stick-breaking process (LSBP) used to encourage piecewise-constant spatial Poisson intensities. The LSBP explicitly favors spatially contiguous segments, and infers the number of segments based on the observed data. The temporal dynamics of the segmentation and of the Poisson intensities are modeled with exponential correlation in time, implemented in the form of a first-order autoregressive model for uniformly sampled discrete data, and via a Gaussian process with an exponential kernel for general temporal sampling. We consider and compare two different inference techniques: a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, which has relatively high computational complexity; and an approximate and efficient variational Bayesian analysis. The model is demonstrated with a simulated example and a real example of space-time crime events in Cincinnati, Ohio, USA.

Single Canonical Model of Reflexive Memory and Spatial Attention

PubMed Central

Patel, Saumil S.; Red, Stuart; Lin, Eric; Sereno, Anne B.

2015-01-01

Many neurons in the dorsal and ventral visual stream have the property that after a brief visual stimulus presentation in their receptive field, the spiking activity in these neurons persists above their baseline levels for several seconds. This maintained activity is not always correlated with the monkey’s task and its origin is unknown. We have previously proposed a simple neural network model, based on shape selective neurons in monkey lateral intraparietal cortex, which predicts the valence and time course of reflexive (bottom-up) spatial attention. In the same simple model, we demonstrate here that passive maintained activity or short-term memory of specific visual events can result without need for an external or top-down modulatory signal. Mutual inhibition and neuronal adaptation play distinct roles in reflexive attention and memory. This modest 4-cell model provides the first simple and unified physiologically plausible mechanism of reflexive spatial attention and passive short-term memory processes. PMID:26493949

[Mapping environmental vulnerability from ETM + data in the Yellow River Mouth Area].

PubMed

Wang, Rui-Yan; Yu, Zhen-Wen; Xia, Yan-Ling; Wang, Xiang-Feng; Zhao, Geng-Xing; Jiang, Shu-Qian

2013-10-01

The environmental vulnerability retrieval is important to support continuing data. The spatial distribution of regional environmental vulnerability was got through remote sensing retrieval. In view of soil and vegetation, the environmental vulnerability evaluation index system was built, and the environmental vulnerability of sampling points was calculated by the AHP-fuzzy method, then the correlation between the sampling points environmental vulnerability and ETM + spectral reflectance ratio including some kinds of conversion data was analyzed to determine the sensitive spectral parameters. Based on that, models of correlation analysis, traditional regression, BP neural network and support vector regression were taken to explain the quantitative relationship between the spectral reflectance and the environmental vulnerability. With this model, the environmental vulnerability distribution was retrieved in the Yellow River Mouth Area. The results showed that the correlation between the environmental vulnerability and the spring NDVI, the September NDVI and the spring brightness was better than others, so they were selected as the sensitive spectral parameters. The model precision result showed that in addition to the support vector model, the other model reached the significant level. While all the multi-variable regression was better than all one-variable regression, and the model accuracy of BP neural network was the best. This study will serve as a reliable theoretical reference for the large spatial scale environmental vulnerability estimation based on remote sensing data.

Diving into the consumer nutrition environment: A Bayesian spatial factor analysis of neighborhood restaurant environment.

PubMed

Luan, Hui; Law, Jane; Lysy, Martin

2018-02-01

Neighborhood restaurant environment (NRE) plays a vital role in shaping residents' eating behaviors. While NRE 'healthfulness' is a multi-facet concept, most studies evaluate it based only on restaurant type, thus largely ignoring variations of in-restaurant features. In the few studies that do account for such features, healthfulness scores are simply averaged over accessible restaurants, thereby concealing any uncertainty that attributed to neighborhoods' size or spatial correlation. To address these limitations, this paper presents a Bayesian Spatial Factor Analysis for assessing NRE healthfulness in the city of Kitchener, Canada. Several in-restaurant characteristics are included. By treating NRE healthfulness as a spatially correlated latent variable, the adopted modeling approach can: (i) identify specific indicators most relevant to NRE healthfulness, (ii) provide healthfulness estimates for neighborhoods without accessible restaurants, and (iii) readily quantify uncertainties in the healthfulness index. Implications of the analysis for intervention program development and community food planning are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Life expectancy impacts due to heating energy utilization in China: Distribution, relations, and policy implications.

PubMed

Wang, Shaobin; Luo, Kunli

2018-01-01

The relation between life expectancy and energy utilization is of particular concern. Different viewpoints concerned the health impacts of heating policy in China. However, it is still obscure that what kind of heating energy or what pattern of heating methods is the most related with the difference of life expectancies in China. The aim of this paper is to comprehensively investigate the spatial relations between life expectancy at birth (LEB) and different heating energy utilization in China by using spatial autocorrelation models including global spatial autocorrelation, local spatial autocorrelation and hot spot analysis. The results showed that: (1) Most of heating energy exhibit a distinct north-south difference, such as central heating supply, stalks and domestic coal. Whereas spatial distribution of domestic natural gas and electricity exhibited west-east differences. (2) Consumption of central heating, stalks and domestic coal show obvious spatial dependence. Whereas firewood, natural gas and electricity did not show significant spatial autocorrelation. It exhibited an extinct south-north difference of heat supply, stalks and domestic coal which were identified to show significant positive spatial autocorrelation. (3) Central heating, residential boilers and natural gas did not show any significant correlations with LEB. While, the utilization of domestic coal and biomass showed significant negative correlations with LEB, and household electricity shows positive correlations. The utilization of domestic coal in China showed a negative effect on LEB, rather than central heating. To improve the solid fuel stoves and control consumption of domestic coal consumption and other low quality solid fuel is imperative to improve the public health level in China in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The influence of processor focus on speckle correlation statistics for a Shuttle imaging radar scene of Hurricane Josephine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tilley, David G.

1988-01-01

The surface wave field produced by Hurricane Josephine was imaged by the L-band SAR aboard the Challenger on October 12, 1984. Exponential trends found in the two-dimensional autocorrelations of speckled image data support an equilibrium theory model of sea surface hydrodynamics. The notions of correlated specular reflection, surface coherence, optimal Doppler parameterization and spatial resolution are discussed within the context of a Poisson-Rayleigh statistical model of the SAR imaging process.

Spatio-temporal wildland arson crime functions

Treesearch

David T. Butry; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2005-01-01

Wildland arson creates damages to structures and timber and affects the health and safety of people living in rural and wildland urban interface areas. We develop a model that incorporates temporal autocorrelations and spatial correlations in wildland arson ignitions in Florida. A Poisson autoregressive model of order p, or PAR(p)...

An Investigation of Calculus Learning Using Factorial Modeling.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dick, Thomas P.; Balomenos, Richard H.

Structural covariance models that would explain the correlations observed among mathematics achievement and participation measures and related cognitive and affective variables were developed. A sample of college calculus students (N=268; 124 females and 144 males) was administered a battery of cognitive tests (including measures of spatial-visual…

Spatially Correlated Gene Expression in Bacterial Groups: The Role of Lineage History, Spatial Gradients, and Cell-Cell Interactions.

PubMed

van Vliet, Simon; Dal Co, Alma; Winkler, Annina R; Spriewald, Stefanie; Stecher, Bärbel; Ackermann, Martin

2018-04-25

Gene expression levels in clonal bacterial groups have been found to be spatially correlated. These correlations can partly be explained by the shared lineage history of nearby cells, although they could also arise from local cell-cell interactions. Here, we present a quantitative framework that allows us to disentangle the contributions of lineage history, long-range spatial gradients, and local cell-cell interactions to spatial correlations in gene expression. We study pathways involved in toxin production, SOS stress response, and metabolism in Escherichia coli microcolonies and find for all pathways that shared lineage history is the main cause of spatial correlations in gene expression levels. However, long-range spatial gradients and local cell-cell interactions also contributed to spatial correlations in SOS response, amino acid biosynthesis, and overall metabolic activity. Together, our data show that the phenotype of a cell is influenced by its lineage history and population context, raising the question of whether bacteria can arrange their activities in space to perform functions they cannot achieve alone. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The tight focusing properties of Laguerre-Gaussian-correlated Schell-model beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Hua-Feng; Zhang, Zhou; Qu, Jun; Huang, Wei

2016-08-01

Based on the Richards-Wolf vectorial diffraction theory, the tight focusing properties, including the intensity distribution, the degree of polarization and the degree of coherence, of the Laguerre-Gaussian-correlated Schell-model (LGSM) beams through a high-numerical-aperture (NA) focusing system are investigated in detail. It is found that the LGSM beam exhibits some extraordinary focusing properties, which is quite different from that of the GSM beam, and the tight focusing properties are closely related to the initial spatial coherence ? and the mode order n. The LGSM beam can form an elliptical focal spot, a circular focal spot or a doughnut-shaped dark hollow beam at the focal plane by choosing a suitable value of the initial spatial coherence ?, and the central dark size of the dark hollow beam increases with the increase of the mode order n. In addition, the influences of the initial spatial coherence ? and the mode order n on the degree of polarization and the degree of coherence are also analysed in detail, respectively. Our results may find applications in optical trapping.

Spatial cognitive deficits in an animal model of Wernicke-Korsakoff syndrome are related to changes in thalamic VDAC protein concentrations.

PubMed

Bueno, K O; de Souza Resende, L; Ribeiro, A F; Dos Santos, D M; Gonçalves, E C; Vigil, F A B; de Oliveira Silva, I F; Ferreira, L F; de Castro Pimenta, A M; Ribeiro, A M

2015-05-21

Proteomic profiles of the thalamus and the correlation between the rats' performance on a spatial learning task and differential protein expression were assessed in the thiamine deficiency (TD) rat model of Wernicke-Korsakoff syndrome. Two-dimensional gel-electrophoresis detected 320 spots and a significant increase or decrease in seven proteins. Four proteins were correlated to rat behavioral performance in the Morris Water Maze. One of the four proteins was identified by mass spectrometry as Voltage-Dependent Anion Channels (VDACs). The association of VDAC is evident in trials in which the rats' performance was worst, in which the VDAC protein was reduced, as confirmed by Western blot. No difference was observed on the mRNA of Vdac genes, indicating that the decreased VDAC expression may be related to a post-transcriptional process. The results show that TD neurodegeneration involves changes in thalamic proteins and suggest that VDAC protein activity might play an important role in an initial stage of the spatial learning process. Copyright © 2015 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive Spatial Filter Based on Similarity Indices to Preserve the Neural Information on EEG Signals during On-Line Processing

PubMed Central

Villa-Parra, Ana Cecilia; Bastos-Filho, Teodiano; López-Delis, Alberto; Frizera-Neto, Anselmo; Krishnan, Sridhar

2017-01-01

This work presents a new on-line adaptive filter, which is based on a similarity analysis between standard electrode locations, in order to reduce artifacts and common interferences throughout electroencephalography (EEG) signals, but preserving the useful information. Standard deviation and Concordance Correlation Coefficient (CCC) between target electrodes and its correspondent neighbor electrodes are analyzed on sliding windows to select those neighbors that are highly correlated. Afterwards, a model based on CCC is applied to provide higher values of weight to those correlated electrodes with lower similarity to the target electrode. The approach was applied to brain computer-interfaces (BCIs) based on Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) to recognize 40 targets of steady-state visual evoked potential (SSVEP), providing an accuracy (ACC) of 86.44 ± 2.81%. In addition, also using this approach, features of low frequency were selected in the pre-processing stage of another BCI to recognize gait planning. In this case, the recognition was significantly (p<0.01) improved for most of the subjects (ACC≥74.79%), when compared with other BCIs based on Common Spatial Pattern, Filter Bank-Common Spatial Pattern, and Riemannian Geometry. PMID:29186848

How's the Flu Getting Through? Landscape genetics suggests both humans and birds spread H5N1 in Egypt.

PubMed

Young, Sean G; Carrel, Margaret; Kitchen, Andrew; Malanson, George P; Tamerius, James; Ali, Mohamad; Kayali, Ghazi

2017-04-01

First introduced to Egypt in 2006, H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza has resulted in the death of millions of birds and caused over 350 infections and at least 117 deaths in humans. After a decade of viral circulation, outbreaks continue to occur and diffusion mechanisms between poultry farms remain unclear. Using landscape genetics techniques, we identify the distance models most strongly correlated with the genetic relatedness of the viruses, suggesting the most likely methods of viral diffusion within Egyptian poultry. Using 73 viral genetic sequences obtained from infected birds throughout northern Egypt between 2009 and 2015, we calculated the genetic dissimilarity between H5N1 viruses for all eight gene segments. Spatial correlation was evaluated using Mantel tests and correlograms and multiple regression of distance matrices within causal modeling and relative support frameworks. These tests examine spatial patterns of genetic relatedness, and compare different models of distance. Four models were evaluated: Euclidean distance, road network distance, road network distance via intervening markets, and a least-cost path model designed to approximate wild waterbird travel using niche modeling and circuit theory. Samples from backyard farms were most strongly correlated with least cost path distances. Samples from commercial farms were most strongly correlated with road network distances. Results were largely consistent across gene segments. Results suggest wild birds play an important role in viral diffusion between backyard farms, while commercial farms experience human-mediated diffusion. These results can inform avian influenza surveillance and intervention strategies in Egypt. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Direct and indirect genetic and fine-scale location effects on breeding date in song sparrows.

PubMed

Germain, Ryan R; Wolak, Matthew E; Arcese, Peter; Losdat, Sylvain; Reid, Jane M

2016-11-01

Quantifying direct and indirect genetic effects of interacting females and males on variation in jointly expressed life-history traits is central to predicting microevolutionary dynamics. However, accurately estimating sex-specific additive genetic variances in such traits remains difficult in wild populations, especially if related individuals inhabit similar fine-scale environments. Breeding date is a key life-history trait that responds to environmental phenology and mediates individual and population responses to environmental change. However, no studies have estimated female (direct) and male (indirect) additive genetic and inbreeding effects on breeding date, and estimated the cross-sex genetic correlation, while simultaneously accounting for fine-scale environmental effects of breeding locations, impeding prediction of microevolutionary dynamics. We fitted animal models to 38 years of song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) phenology and pedigree data to estimate sex-specific additive genetic variances in breeding date, and the cross-sex genetic correlation, thereby estimating the total additive genetic variance while simultaneously estimating sex-specific inbreeding depression. We further fitted three forms of spatial animal model to explicitly estimate variance in breeding date attributable to breeding location, overlap among breeding locations and spatial autocorrelation. We thereby quantified fine-scale location variances in breeding date and quantified the degree to which estimating such variances affected the estimated additive genetic variances. The non-spatial animal model estimated nonzero female and male additive genetic variances in breeding date (sex-specific heritabilities: 0·07 and 0·02, respectively) and a strong, positive cross-sex genetic correlation (0·99), creating substantial total additive genetic variance (0·18). Breeding date varied with female, but not male inbreeding coefficient, revealing direct, but not indirect, inbreeding depression. All three spatial animal models estimated small location variance in breeding date, but because relatedness and breeding location were virtually uncorrelated, modelling location variance did not alter the estimated additive genetic variances. Our results show that sex-specific additive genetic effects on breeding date can be strongly positively correlated, which would affect any predicted rates of microevolutionary change in response to sexually antagonistic or congruent selection. Further, we show that inbreeding effects on breeding date can also be sex specific and that genetic effects can exceed phenotypic variation stemming from fine-scale location-based variation within a wild population. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Modelling carbon responses of tundra ecosystems to historical and projected climate: Sensitivity of pan-Arctic carbon storage to temporal and spatial variation in climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGuire, A.D.; Clein, Joy S.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Meier, R.A.; Vorosmarty, C.J.; Serreze, Mark C.

2000-01-01

Historical and projected climate trends for high latitudes show substantial temporal and spatial variability. To identify uncertainties in simulating carbon (C) dynamics for pan-Arctic tundra, we compare the historical and projected responses of tundra C storage from 1921 to 2100 between simulations by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) for the pan-Arctic and the Kuparuk River Basin, which was the focus of an integrated study of C dynamics from 1994 to 1996. In the historical period from 1921 to 1994, the responses of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (RH) simulated for the Kuparuk River Basin and the pan-Arctic are correlated with the same factors; NPP is positively correlated with net nitrogen mineralization (NMIN) and RH is negatively correlated with mean annual soil moisture. In comparison to the historical period, the spatially aggregated responses of NPP and RH for the Kuparuk River Basin and the pan-Arctic in our simulations for the projected period have different sensitivities to temperature, soil moisture and NMIN. In addition to being sensitive to soil moisture during the projected period, RH is also sensitive to temperature and there is a significant correlation between RH and NMIN. We interpret the increases in NPP during the projected period as being driven primarily by increases in NMIN, and that the correlation between NPP and temperature in the projected period is a result primarily of the causal linkage between temperature, RH, and NMIN. Although similar factors appear to be controlling simulated regional-and biome-scale C dynamics, simulated C dynamics at the two scales differ in magnitude with higher increases in C storage simulated for the Kuparuk River Basin than for the pan-Arctic at the end of the historical period and throughout the projected period. Also, the results of the simulations indicate that responses of C storage show different climate sensitivities at regional and pan-Arctic spatial scales and that these sensitivities change across the temporal scope of the simulations. The results of the TEM simulations indicate that the scaling of C dynamics to a region of arctic tundra may not represent C dynamics of pan-Arctic tundra because of the limited spatial variation in climate and vegetation within a region relative to the pan-Arctic. For reducing uncertainties, our analyses highlight the importance of incorporating the understanding gained from process-level studies of C dynamics in a region of arctic tundra into process-based models that simulate C dynamics in a spatially explicit fashion across the spatial domain of pan-Arctic tundra. Also, efforts to improve gridded datasets of historical climate for the pan-Arctic would advance the ability to assess the responses of C dynamics for pan-Arctic tundra in a more realistic fashion. A major challenge will be to incorporate topographic controls over soil moisture in assessing the response of C storage for pan-Arctic tundra.

Integrative Spatial Data Analytics for Public Health Studies of New York State

PubMed Central

Chen, Xin; Wang, Fusheng

2016-01-01

Increased accessibility of health data made available by the government provides unique opportunity for spatial analytics with much higher resolution to discover patterns of diseases, and their correlation with spatial impact indicators. This paper demonstrated our vision of integrative spatial analytics for public health by linking the New York Cancer Mapping Dataset with datasets containing potential spatial impact indicators. We performed spatial based discovery of disease patterns and variations across New York State, and identify potential correlations between diseases and demographic, socio-economic and environmental indicators. Our methods were validated by three correlation studies: the correlation between stomach cancer and Asian race, the correlation between breast cancer and high education population, and the correlation between lung cancer and air toxics. Our work will allow public health researchers, government officials or other practitioners to adequately identify, analyze, and monitor health problems at the community or neighborhood level for New York State. PMID:28269834

Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Vector-Host Contact (VHC) Ratios and Ecological Niche Modeling of the West Nile Virus Mosquito Vector, Culex quinquefasciatus, in the City of New Orleans, LA, USA

PubMed Central

Michaels, Sarah R.; Riegel, Claudia; Pereira, Roberto M.; Zipperer, Wayne; Lockaby, B. Graeme; Koehler, Philip G.

2017-01-01

The consistent sporadic transmission of West Nile Virus (WNV) in the city of New Orleans justifies the need for distribution risk maps highlighting human risk of mosquito bites. We modeled the influence of biophysical and socioeconomic metrics on the spatio-temporal distributions of presence/vector-host contact (VHC) ratios of WNV vector, Culex quinquefasciatus, within their flight range. Biophysical and socioeconomic data were extracted within 5-km buffer radii around sampling localities of gravid female Culex quinquefasciatus. The spatio-temporal correlations between VHC data and 33 variables, including climate, land use-land cover (LULC), socioeconomic, and land surface terrain were analyzed using stepwise linear regression models (RM). Using MaxEnt, we developed a distribution model using the correlated predicting variables. Only 12 factors showed significant correlations with spatial distribution of VHC ratios (R2 = 81.62, p < 0.01). Non-forested wetland (NFWL), tree density (TD) and residential-urban (RU) settings demonstrated the strongest relationship. The VHC ratios showed monthly environmental resilience in terms of number and type of influential factors. The highest prediction power of RU and other urban and built up land (OUBL), was demonstrated during May–August. This association was positively correlated with the onset of the mosquito WNV infection rate during June. These findings were confirmed by the Jackknife analysis in MaxEnt and independently collected field validation points. The spatial and temporal correlations of VHC ratios and their response to the predicting variables are discussed. PMID:28786934

Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Vector-Host Contact (VHC) Ratios and Ecological Niche Modeling of the West Nile Virus Mosquito Vector, Culex quinquefasciatus, in the City of New Orleans, LA, USA.

PubMed

Sallam, Mohamed F; Michaels, Sarah R; Riegel, Claudia; Pereira, Roberto M; Zipperer, Wayne; Lockaby, B Graeme; Koehler, Philip G

2017-08-08

The consistent sporadic transmission of West Nile Virus (WNV) in the city of New Orleans justifies the need for distribution risk maps highlighting human risk of mosquito bites. We modeled the influence of biophysical and socioeconomic metrics on the spatio-temporal distributions of presence/vector-host contact (VHC) ratios of WNV vector, Culex quinquefasciatus , within their flight range . Biophysical and socioeconomic data were extracted within 5-km buffer radii around sampling localities of gravid female Culex quinquefasciatus . The spatio-temporal correlations between VHC data and 33 variables, including climate, land use-land cover (LULC), socioeconomic, and land surface terrain were analyzed using stepwise linear regression models (RM). Using MaxEnt, we developed a distribution model using the correlated predicting variables. Only 12 factors showed significant correlations with spatial distribution of VHC ratios ( R ² = 81.62, p < 0.01). Non-forested wetland (NFWL), tree density (TD) and residential-urban (RU) settings demonstrated the strongest relationship. The VHC ratios showed monthly environmental resilience in terms of number and type of influential factors. The highest prediction power of RU and other urban and built up land (OUBL), was demonstrated during May-August. This association was positively correlated with the onset of the mosquito WNV infection rate during June. These findings were confirmed by the Jackknife analysis in MaxEnt and independently collected field validation points. The spatial and temporal correlations of VHC ratios and their response to the predicting variables are discussed.

Emergent spatial synaptic structure from diffusive plasticity.

PubMed

Sweeney, Yann; Clopath, Claudia

2017-04-01

Some neurotransmitters can diffuse freely across cell membranes, influencing neighbouring neurons regardless of their synaptic coupling. This provides a means of neural communication, alternative to synaptic transmission, which can influence the way in which neural networks process information. Here, we ask whether diffusive neurotransmission can also influence the structure of synaptic connectivity in a network undergoing plasticity. We propose a form of Hebbian synaptic plasticity which is mediated by a diffusive neurotransmitter. Whenever a synapse is modified at an individual neuron through our proposed mechanism, similar but smaller modifications occur in synapses connecting to neighbouring neurons. The effects of this diffusive plasticity are explored in networks of rate-based neurons. This leads to the emergence of spatial structure in the synaptic connectivity of the network. We show that this spatial structure can coexist with other forms of structure in the synaptic connectivity, such as with groups of strongly interconnected neurons that form in response to correlated external drive. Finally, we explore diffusive plasticity in a simple feedforward network model of receptive field development. We show that, as widely observed across sensory cortex, the preferred stimulus identity of neurons in our network become spatially correlated due to diffusion. Our proposed mechanism of diffusive plasticity provides an efficient mechanism for generating these spatial correlations in stimulus preference which can flexibly interact with other forms of synaptic organisation. © 2016 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Nonmonotonic spatial structure of interneuronal correlations in prefrontal microcircuits

PubMed Central

Safavi, Shervin; Dwarakanath, Abhilash; Kapoor, Vishal; Werner, Joachim; Hatsopoulos, Nicholas G.; Logothetis, Nikos K.; Panagiotaropoulos, Theofanis I.

2018-01-01

Correlated fluctuations of single neuron discharges, on a mesoscopic scale, decrease as a function of lateral distance in early sensory cortices, reflecting a rapid spatial decay of lateral connection probability and excitation. However, spatial periodicities in horizontal connectivity and associational input as well as an enhanced probability of lateral excitatory connections in the association cortex could theoretically result in nonmonotonic correlation structures. Here, we show such a spatially nonmonotonic correlation structure, characterized by significantly positive long-range correlations, in the inferior convexity of the macaque prefrontal cortex. This functional connectivity kernel was more pronounced during wakefulness than anesthesia and could be largely attributed to the spatial pattern of correlated variability between functionally similar neurons during structured visual stimulation. These results suggest that the spatial decay of lateral functional connectivity is not a common organizational principle of neocortical microcircuits. A nonmonotonic correlation structure could reflect a critical topological feature of prefrontal microcircuits, facilitating their role in integrative processes. PMID:29588415

A geospatial analysis of soil lead concentrations around regional Oklahoma airports.

PubMed

McCumber, Alexander; Strevett, K A

2017-01-01

Lead has been banned from automobile gasoline since 1995; however, lead is still used as an additive to aviation gasoline (avgas). Airports are now one of the greatest sources of lead air emission in the US. The objectives of this study were (1) to evaluate soil lead levels radially from three regional airports; (2) collect historical meteorological data; (3) examine the soil organic matter content and (4) develop correlation coefficients to evaluate correlations among variables. Soil samples were collected from 3 different airports in Oklahoma and the soil lead concentration was measured using x-ray fluorescence (XRF). The measured soil lead concentrations were plotted with the corresponding GPS location in ArcGIS and Inverse Distance Weight spatial analysis was used to create modeled isopleths of soil lead concentrations. One of the three airports was found to have soil lead concentrations that correlate with soil organic matter with one other showing correlation between soil lead concentration and distance from the airport. The spatial modeled isopleths showed elevated soil lead concentrations in the direction of prevailing winds with "hot spots" near the avgas fueling stations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemiological features and risk factors associated with the spatial and temporal distribution of human brucellosis in China

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Human brucellosis incidence in China has been increasing dramatically since 1999. However, epidemiological features and potential factors underlying the re-emergence of the disease remain less understood. Methods Data on human and animal brucellosis cases at the county scale were collected for the year 2004 to 2010. Also collected were environmental and socioeconomic variables. Epidemiological features including spatial and temporal patterns of the disease were characterized, and the potential factors related to the spatial heterogeneity and the temporal trend of were analysed using Poisson regression analysis, Granger causality analysis, and autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models, respectively. Results The epidemic showed a significantly higher spatial correlation with the number of sheep and goats than swine and cattle. The disease was most prevalent in grassland areas with elevation between 800–1,600 meters. The ADL models revealed that local epidemics were correlated with comparatively lower temperatures and less sunshine in winter and spring, with a 1–7 month lag before the epidemic peak in May. Conclusions Our findings indicate that human brucellosis tended to occur most commonly in grasslands at moderate elevation where sheep and goats were the predominant livestock, and in years with cooler winter and spring or less sunshine. PMID:24238301

Selecting Optimal Random Forest Predictive Models: A Case Study on Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Seabed Hardness

PubMed Central

Li, Jin; Tran, Maggie; Siwabessy, Justy

2016-01-01

Spatially continuous predictions of seabed hardness are important baseline environmental information for sustainable management of Australia’s marine jurisdiction. Seabed hardness is often inferred from multibeam backscatter data with unknown accuracy and can be inferred from underwater video footage at limited locations. In this study, we classified the seabed into four classes based on two new seabed hardness classification schemes (i.e., hard90 and hard70). We developed optimal predictive models to predict seabed hardness using random forest (RF) based on the point data of hardness classes and spatially continuous multibeam data. Five feature selection (FS) methods that are variable importance (VI), averaged variable importance (AVI), knowledge informed AVI (KIAVI), Boruta and regularized RF (RRF) were tested based on predictive accuracy. Effects of highly correlated, important and unimportant predictors on the accuracy of RF predictive models were examined. Finally, spatial predictions generated using the most accurate models were visually examined and analysed. This study confirmed that: 1) hard90 and hard70 are effective seabed hardness classification schemes; 2) seabed hardness of four classes can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy; 3) the typical approach used to pre-select predictive variables by excluding highly correlated variables needs to be re-examined; 4) the identification of the important and unimportant predictors provides useful guidelines for further improving predictive models; 5) FS methods select the most accurate predictive model(s) instead of the most parsimonious ones, and AVI and Boruta are recommended for future studies; and 6) RF is an effective modelling method with high predictive accuracy for multi-level categorical data and can be applied to ‘small p and large n’ problems in environmental sciences. Additionally, automated computational programs for AVI need to be developed to increase its computational efficiency and caution should be taken when applying filter FS methods in selecting predictive models. PMID:26890307

Selecting Optimal Random Forest Predictive Models: A Case Study on Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Seabed Hardness.

PubMed

Li, Jin; Tran, Maggie; Siwabessy, Justy

2016-01-01

Spatially continuous predictions of seabed hardness are important baseline environmental information for sustainable management of Australia's marine jurisdiction. Seabed hardness is often inferred from multibeam backscatter data with unknown accuracy and can be inferred from underwater video footage at limited locations. In this study, we classified the seabed into four classes based on two new seabed hardness classification schemes (i.e., hard90 and hard70). We developed optimal predictive models to predict seabed hardness using random forest (RF) based on the point data of hardness classes and spatially continuous multibeam data. Five feature selection (FS) methods that are variable importance (VI), averaged variable importance (AVI), knowledge informed AVI (KIAVI), Boruta and regularized RF (RRF) were tested based on predictive accuracy. Effects of highly correlated, important and unimportant predictors on the accuracy of RF predictive models were examined. Finally, spatial predictions generated using the most accurate models were visually examined and analysed. This study confirmed that: 1) hard90 and hard70 are effective seabed hardness classification schemes; 2) seabed hardness of four classes can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy; 3) the typical approach used to pre-select predictive variables by excluding highly correlated variables needs to be re-examined; 4) the identification of the important and unimportant predictors provides useful guidelines for further improving predictive models; 5) FS methods select the most accurate predictive model(s) instead of the most parsimonious ones, and AVI and Boruta are recommended for future studies; and 6) RF is an effective modelling method with high predictive accuracy for multi-level categorical data and can be applied to 'small p and large n' problems in environmental sciences. Additionally, automated computational programs for AVI need to be developed to increase its computational efficiency and caution should be taken when applying filter FS methods in selecting predictive models.

Assessment of the performance of CORDEX-SA experiments in simulating seasonal mean temperature over the Himalayan region for the present climate: Part I

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nengker, T.; Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

The ability of an ensemble of five regional climate models (hereafter RCMs) under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments-South Asia (hereafter, CORDEX-SA) in simulating the key features of present day near surface mean air temperature (Tmean) climatology (1970-2005) over the Himalayan region is studied. The purpose of this paper is to understand the consistency in the performance of models across the ensemble, space and seasons. For this a number of statistical measures like trend, correlation, variance, probability distribution function etc. are applied to evaluate the performance of models against observation and simultaneously the underlying uncertainties between them for four different seasons. The most evident finding from the study is the presence of a large cold bias (-6 to -8 °C) which is systematically seen across all the models and across space and time over the Himalayan region. However, these RCMs with its fine resolution perform extremely well in capturing the spatial distribution of the temperature features as indicated by a consistently high spatial correlation (greater than 0.9) with the observation in all seasons. In spite of underestimation in simulated temperature and general intensification of cold bias with increasing elevation the models show a greater rate of warming than the observation throughout entire altitudinal stretch of study region. During winter, the simulated rate of warming gets even higher at high altitudes. Moreover, a seasonal response of model performance and its spatial variability to elevation is found.

Effects of variations of stage and flux at different frequencies on the estimates using river stage tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y. L.; Yeh, T. C. J.; Wen, J. C.

2017-12-01

This study is to investigate the ability of river stage tomography to estimate the spatial distribution of hydraulic transmissivity (T), storage coefficient (S), and diffusivity (D) in groundwater basins using information of groundwater level variations induced by periodic variations of stream stage, and infiltrated flux from the stream boundary. In order to accomplish this objective, the sensitivity and correlation of groundwater heads with respect to the hydraulic properties is first conducted to investigate the spatial characteristics of groundwater level in response to the stream variations at different frequencies. Results of the analysis show that the spatial distributions of the sensitivity of heads at an observation well in response to periodic river stage variations are highly correlated despite different frequencies. On the other hand, the spatial patterns of the sensitivity of the observed head to river flux boundaries at different frequencies are different. Specifically, the observed head is highly correlated with T at the region between the stream and observation well when the high-frequency periodic flux is considered. On the other hand, it is highly correlated with T at the region between monitoring well and the boundary opposite to the stream when the low-frequency periodic flux is prescribed to the stream. We also find that the spatial distributions of the sensitivity of observed head to S variation are highly correlated with all frequencies in spite of heads or fluxes stream boundary. Subsequently, the differences of the spatial correlations of the observed heads to the hydraulic properties under the head and flux boundary conditions are further investigated by an inverse model (i.e., successive stochastic linear estimator). This investigation uses noise-free groundwater and stream data of a synthetic aquifer, where aquifer heterogeneity is known exactly. The ability of river stage tomography is then tested with these synthetic data sets to estimate T, S, and D distribution. The results reveal that boundary flux variations with different frequencies contain different information about the aquifer characteristics while the head boundary does not.

A comparative analysis of two highly spatially resolved European atmospheric emission inventories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, J.; Guevara, M.; Baldasano, J. M.; Tchepel, O.; Schaap, M.; Miranda, A. I.; Borrego, C.

2013-08-01

A reliable emissions inventory is highly important for air quality modelling applications, especially at regional or local scales, which require high resolutions. Consequently, higher resolution emission inventories have been developed that are suitable for regional air quality modelling. This research performs an inter-comparative analysis of different spatial disaggregation methodologies of atmospheric emission inventories. This study is based on two different European emission inventories with different spatial resolutions: 1) the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) inventory and 2) an emission inventory developed by the TNO (Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research). These two emission inventories were converted into three distinct gridded emission datasets as follows: (i) the EMEP emission inventory was disaggregated by area (EMEParea) and (ii) following a more complex methodology (HERMES-DIS - High-Elective Resolution Modelling Emissions System - DISaggregation module) to understand and evaluate the influence of different disaggregation methods; and (iii) the TNO gridded emissions, which are based on different emission data sources and different disaggregation methods. A predefined common grid with a spatial resolution of 12 × 12 km2 was used to compare the three datasets spatially. The inter-comparative analysis was performed by source sector (SNAP - Selected Nomenclature for Air Pollution) with emission totals for selected pollutants. It included the computation of difference maps (to focus on the spatial variability of emission differences) and a linear regression analysis to calculate the coefficients of determination and to quantitatively measure differences. From the spatial analysis, greater differences were found for residential/commercial combustion (SNAP02), solvent use (SNAP06) and road transport (SNAP07). These findings were related to the different spatial disaggregation that was conducted by the TNO and HERMES-DIS for the first two sectors and to the distinct data sources that were used by the TNO and HERMES-DIS for road transport. Regarding the regression analysis, the greatest correlation occurred between the EMEParea and HERMES-DIS because the latter is derived from the first, which does not occur for the TNO emissions. The greatest correlations were encountered for agriculture NH3 emissions, due to the common use of the CORINE Land Cover database for disaggregation. The point source emissions (energy industries, industrial processes, industrial combustion and extraction/distribution of fossil fuels) resulted in the lowest coefficients of determination. The spatial variability of SOx differed among the emissions that were obtained from the different disaggregation methods. In conclusion, HERMES-DIS and TNO are two distinct emission inventories, both very well discretized and detailed, suitable for air quality modelling. However, the different databases and distinct disaggregation methodologies that were used certainly result in different spatial emission patterns. This fact should be considered when applying regional atmospheric chemical transport models. Future work will focus on the evaluation of air quality models performance and sensitivity to these spatial discrepancies in emission inventories. Air quality modelling will benefit from the availability of appropriate resolution, consistent and reliable emission inventories.

Assessing spatial inequalities in accessing community pharmacies: a mixed geographically weighted approach.

PubMed

Domnich, Alexander; Arata, Lucia; Amicizia, Daniela; Signori, Alessio; Gasparini, Roberto; Panatto, Donatella

2016-11-16

Geographical accessibility is an important determinant for the utilisation of community pharmacies. The present study explored patterns of spatial accessibility with respect to pharmacies in Liguria, Italy, a region with particular geographical and demographic features. Municipal density of pharmacies was proxied as the number of pharmacies per capita and per km2, and spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed to identify spatial clusters. Both non-spatial and spatial models were constructed to predict the study outcome. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed a highly significant clustered pattern in the density of pharmacies per capita (I=0.082) and per km2 (I=0.295). Potentially under-supplied areas were mostly located in the mountainous hinterland. Ordinary least-squares (OLS) regressions established a significant positive relationship between the density of pharmacies and income among municipalities located at high altitudes, while no such association was observed in lower-lying areas. However, residuals of the OLS models were spatially auto-correlated. The best-fitting mixed geographically weighted regression (GWR) models outperformed the corresponding OLS models. Pharmacies per capita were best predicted by two local predictors (altitude and proportion of immigrants) and two global ones (proportion of elderly residents and income), while the local terms population, mean altitude and rural status and the global term income functioned as independent variables predicting pharmacies per km2. The density of pharmacies in Liguria was found to be associated with both socio-economic and landscape factors. Mapping of mixed GWR results would be helpful to policy-makers.

A spatial analysis of social and economic determinants of tuberculosis in Brazil.

PubMed

Harling, Guy; Castro, Marcia C

2014-01-01

We investigated the spatial distribution, and social and economic correlates, of tuberculosis in Brazil between 2002 and 2009 using municipality-level age/sex-standardized tuberculosis notification data. Rates were very strongly spatially autocorrelated, being notably high in urban areas on the eastern seaboard and in the west of the country. Non-spatial ecological regression analyses found higher rates associated with urbanicity, population density, poor economic conditions, household crowding, non-white population and worse health and healthcare indicators. These associations remained in spatial conditional autoregressive models, although the effect of poverty appeared partially confounded by urbanicity, race and spatial autocorrelation, and partially mediated by household crowding. Our analysis highlights both the multiple relationships between socioeconomic factors and tuberculosis in Brazil, and the importance of accounting for spatial factors in analysing socioeconomic determinants of tuberculosis. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A parametric multiclass Bayes error estimator for the multispectral scanner spatial model performance evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mobasseri, B. G.; Mcgillem, C. D.; Anuta, P. E. (Principal Investigator)

1978-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The probability of correct classification of various populations in data was defined as the primary performance index. The multispectral data being of multiclass nature as well, required a Bayes error estimation procedure that was dependent on a set of class statistics alone. The classification error was expressed in terms of an N dimensional integral, where N was the dimensionality of the feature space. The multispectral scanner spatial model was represented by a linear shift, invariant multiple, port system where the N spectral bands comprised the input processes. The scanner characteristic function, the relationship governing the transformation of the input spatial, and hence, spectral correlation matrices through the systems, was developed.

A Spatial Perspective of Droughts and Pluvials in the Tropics and their Relationships to ENSO in CMIP5 Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez Arango, J. D.; Lintner, B. R.; Lyon, B.

2016-12-01

Although many aspects of the tropical response to ENSO are well-known, the spatial characteristics of the rainfall response to ENSO remain relatively unexplored. Moreover, in current generation climate models, the spatial signatures of the ENSO tropical teleconnection are more uncertain than other aspects of ENSO variability, such as the amplitude of rainfall anomalies. Following the approach of Lyon (2004) and Lyon and Barnston (2005), we analyze here integrated measures of the spatial extent of drought and pluvial conditions in the tropics and their relationship to ENSO in observations as well as simulations of Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with prescribed SST forcing. We compute diagnostics including the model ensemble-means and standard deviations of moderate, intermediate, and severe droughts and pluvials and the lagged correlations with respect to ENSO-based SST indices like NINO3. Overall, in a tropics-wide sense, the models generally capture the areal extent of observed droughts and pluvials and their phasing with respect to ENSO. However, at more local scales, e.g., tropical South America, the simulated metrics agree less strongly with observations, underscoring the role of errors in the spatial patterns of ENSO-induced rainfall anomalies.

Considering built environment and spatial correlation in modeling pedestrian injury severity.

PubMed

Prato, Carlo G; Kaplan, Sigal; Patrier, Alexandre; Rasmussen, Thomas K

2018-01-02

This study looks at mitigating and aggravating factors that are associated with the injury severity of pedestrians when they have crashes with another road user and overcomes existing limitations in the literature by focusing attention on the built environment and considering spatial correlation across crashes. Reports for 6,539 pedestrian crashes occurred in Denmark between 2006 and 2015 were merged with geographic information system resources containing detailed information about the built environment and exposure at the crash locations. A linearized spatial logit model estimated the probability of pedestrians sustaining a severe or fatal injury conditional on the occurrence of a crash with another road user. This study confirms previous findings about older pedestrians and intoxicated pedestrians being the most vulnerable road users and crashes with heavy vehicles and in roads with higher speed limits being related to the most severe outcomes. This study provides novel perspectives by showing positive spatial correlations of crashes with the same severity outcomes and emphasizing the role of the built environment in the proximity of the crash. This study emphasizes the need for thinking about traffic calming measures, illumination solutions, road maintenance programs, and speed limit reductions. Moreover, this study emphasizes the role of the built environment, because shopping areas, residential areas, and walking traffic density are positively related to a reduction in pedestrian injury severity. Often, these areas have in common a larger pedestrian mass that is more likely to make other road users more aware and attentive, whereas the same does not seem to apply to areas with lower pedestrian density.

Smooth individual level covariates adjustment in disease mapping.

PubMed

Huque, Md Hamidul; Anderson, Craig; Walton, Richard; Woolford, Samuel; Ryan, Louise

2018-05-01

Spatial models for disease mapping should ideally account for covariates measured both at individual and area levels. The newly available "indiCAR" model fits the popular conditional autoregresssive (CAR) model by accommodating both individual and group level covariates while adjusting for spatial correlation in the disease rates. This algorithm has been shown to be effective but assumes log-linear associations between individual level covariates and outcome. In many studies, the relationship between individual level covariates and the outcome may be non-log-linear, and methods to track such nonlinearity between individual level covariate and outcome in spatial regression modeling are not well developed. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm, smooth-indiCAR, to fit an extension to the popular conditional autoregresssive model that can accommodate both linear and nonlinear individual level covariate effects while adjusting for group level covariates and spatial correlation in the disease rates. In this formulation, the effect of a continuous individual level covariate is accommodated via penalized splines. We describe a two-step estimation procedure to obtain reliable estimates of individual and group level covariate effects where both individual and group level covariate effects are estimated separately. This distributed computing framework enhances its application in the Big Data domain with a large number of individual/group level covariates. We evaluate the performance of smooth-indiCAR through simulation. Our results indicate that the smooth-indiCAR method provides reliable estimates of all regression and random effect parameters. We illustrate our proposed methodology with an analysis of data on neutropenia admissions in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Spatial correlation of probabilistic earthquake ground motion and loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesson, R.L.; Perkins, D.M.

2001-01-01

Spatial correlation of annual earthquake ground motions and losses can be used to estimate the variance of annual losses to a portfolio of properties exposed to earthquakes A direct method is described for the calculations of the spatial correlation of earthquake ground motions and losses. Calculations for the direct method can be carried out using either numerical quadrature or a discrete, matrix-based approach. Numerical results for this method are compared with those calculated from a simple Monte Carlo simulation. Spatial correlation of ground motion and loss is induced by the systematic attenuation of ground motion with distance from the source, by common site conditions, and by the finite length of fault ruptures. Spatial correlation is also strongly dependent on the partitioning of the variability, given an event, into interevent and intraevent components. Intraevent variability reduces the spatial correlation of losses. Interevent variability increases spatial correlation of losses. The higher the spatial correlation, the larger the variance in losses to a port-folio, and the more likely extreme values become. This result underscores the importance of accurately determining the relative magnitudes of intraevent and interevent variability in ground-motion studies, because of the strong impact in estimating earthquake losses to a portfolio. The direct method offers an alternative to simulation for calculating the variance of losses to a portfolio, which may reduce the amount of calculation required.

Estimating safety effects of pavement management factors utilizing Bayesian random effect models.

PubMed

Jiang, Ximiao; Huang, Baoshan; Zaretzki, Russell L; Richards, Stephen; Yan, Xuedong

2013-01-01

Previous studies of pavement management factors that relate to the occurrence of traffic-related crashes are rare. Traditional research has mostly employed summary statistics of bidirectional pavement quality measurements in extended longitudinal road segments over a long time period, which may cause a loss of important information and result in biased parameter estimates. The research presented in this article focuses on crash risk of roadways with overall fair to good pavement quality. Real-time and location-specific data were employed to estimate the effects of pavement management factors on the occurrence of crashes. This research is based on the crash data and corresponding pavement quality data for the Tennessee state route highways from 2004 to 2009. The potential temporal and spatial correlations among observations caused by unobserved factors were considered. Overall 6 models were built accounting for no correlation, temporal correlation only, and both the temporal and spatial correlations. These models included Poisson, negative binomial (NB), one random effect Poisson and negative binomial (OREP, ORENB), and two random effect Poisson and negative binomial (TREP, TRENB) models. The Bayesian method was employed to construct these models. The inference is based on the posterior distribution from the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. These models were compared using the deviance information criterion. Analysis of the posterior distribution of parameter coefficients indicates that the pavement management factors indexed by Present Serviceability Index (PSI) and Pavement Distress Index (PDI) had significant impacts on the occurrence of crashes, whereas the variable rutting depth was not significant. Among other factors, lane width, median width, type of terrain, and posted speed limit were significant in affecting crash frequency. The findings of this study indicate that a reduction in pavement roughness would reduce the likelihood of traffic-related crashes. Hence, maintaining a low level of pavement roughness is strongly suggested. In addition, the results suggested that the temporal correlation among observations was significant and that the ORENB model outperformed all other models.

A Bayesian model of stereopsis depth and motion direction discrimination.

PubMed

Read, J C A

2002-02-01

The extraction of stereoscopic depth from retinal disparity, and motion direction from two-frame kinematograms, requires the solution of a correspondence problem. In previous psychophysical work [Read and Eagle (2000) Vision Res 40: 3345-3358], we compared the performance of the human stereopsis and motion systems with correlated and anti-correlated stimuli. We found that, although the two systems performed similarly for narrow-band stimuli, broadband anti-correlated kinematograms produced a strong perception of reversed motion, whereas the stereograms appeared merely rivalrous. I now model these psychophysical data with a computational model of the correspondence problem based on the known properties of visual cortical cells. Noisy retinal images are filtered through a set of Fourier channels tuned to different spatial frequencies and orientations. Within each channel, a Bayesian analysis incorporating a prior preference for small disparities is used to assess the probability of each possible match. Finally, information from the different channels is combined to arrive at a judgement of stimulus disparity. Each model system--stereopsis and motion--has two free parameters: the amount of noise they are subject to, and the strength of their preference for small disparities. By adjusting these parameters independently for each system, qualitative matches are produced to psychophysical data, for both correlated and anti-correlated stimuli, across a range of spatial frequency and orientation bandwidths. The motion model is found to require much higher noise levels and a weaker preference for small disparities. This makes the motion model more tolerant of poor-quality reverse-direction false matches encountered with anti-correlated stimuli, matching the strong perception of reversed motion that humans experience with these stimuli. In contrast, the lower noise level and tighter prior preference used with the stereopsis model means that it performs close to chance with anti-correlated stimuli, in accordance with human psychophysics. Thus, the key features of the experimental data can be reproduced assuming that the motion system experiences more effective noise than the stereoscopy system and imposes a less stringent preference for small disparities.

Impact of spatial proxies on the representation of bottom-up emission inventories: A satellite-based analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geng, Guannan; Zhang, Qiang; Martin, Randall V.; Lin, Jintai; Huo, Hong; Zheng, Bo; Wang, Siwen; He, Kebin

2017-03-01

Spatial proxies used in bottom-up emission inventories to derive the spatial distributions of emissions are usually empirical and involve additional levels of uncertainty. Although uncertainties in current emission inventories have been discussed extensively, uncertainties resulting from improper spatial proxies have rarely been evaluated. In this work, we investigate the impact of spatial proxies on the representation of gridded emissions by comparing six gridded NOx emission datasets over China developed from the same magnitude of emissions and different spatial proxies. GEOS-Chem-modeled tropospheric NO2 vertical columns simulated from different gridded emission inventories are compared with satellite-based columns. The results show that differences between modeled and satellite-based NO2 vertical columns are sensitive to the spatial proxies used in the gridded emission inventories. The total population density is less suitable for allocating NOx emissions than nighttime light data because population density tends to allocate more emissions to rural areas. Determining the exact locations of large emission sources could significantly strengthen the correlation between modeled and observed NO2 vertical columns. Using vehicle population and an updated road network for the on-road transport sector could substantially enhance urban emissions and improve the model performance. When further applying industrial gross domestic product (IGDP) values for the industrial sector, modeled NO2 vertical columns could better capture pollution hotspots in urban areas and exhibit the best performance of the six cases compared to satellite-based NO2 vertical columns (slope = 1.01 and R2 = 0. 85). This analysis provides a framework for information from satellite observations to inform bottom-up inventory development. In the future, more effort should be devoted to the representation of spatial proxies to improve spatial patterns in bottom-up emission inventories.

Functional overestimation due to spatial smoothing of fMRI data.

PubMed

Liu, Peng; Calhoun, Vince; Chen, Zikuan

2017-11-01

Pearson correlation (simply correlation) is a basic technique for neuroimage function analysis. It has been observed that the spatial smoothing may cause functional overestimation, which however remains a lack of complete understanding. Herein, we present a theoretical explanation from the perspective of correlation scale invariance. For a task-evoked spatiotemporal functional dataset, we can extract the functional spatial map by calculating the temporal correlations (tcorr) of voxel timecourses against the task timecourse. From the relationship between image noise level (changed through spatial smoothing) and the tcorr map calculation, we show that the spatial smoothing causes a noise reduction, which in turn smooths the tcorr map and leads to a spatial expansion on neuroactivity blob estimation. Through numerical simulations and subject experiments, we show that the spatial smoothing of fMRI data may overestimate activation spots in the correlation functional map. Our results suggest a small spatial smoothing (with a smoothing kernel with a full width at half maximum (FWHM) of no more than two voxels) on fMRI data processing for correlation-based functional mapping COMPARISON WITH EXISTING METHODS: In extreme noiselessness, the correlation of scale-invariance property defines a meaningless binary tcorr map. In reality, a functional activity blob in a tcorr map is shaped due to the spoilage of image noise on correlative responses. We may reduce data noise level by smoothing processing, which poses a smoothing effect on correlation. This logic allows us to understand the noise dependence and the smoothing effect of correlation-based fMRI data analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Opendf - An Implementation of the Dual Fermion Method for Strongly Correlated Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antipov, Andrey E.; LeBlanc, James P. F.; Gull, Emanuel

The dual fermion method is a multiscale approach for solving lattice problems of interacting strongly correlated systems. In this paper, we present the opendfcode, an open-source implementation of the dual fermion method applicable to fermionic single- orbital lattice models in dimensions D = 1, 2, 3 and 4. The method is built on a dynamical mean field starting point, which neglects all local correlations, and perturbatively adds spatial correlations. Our code is distributed as an open-source package under the GNU public license version 2.

Analytical and numerical studies of photo-injected charge transport in molecularly-doped polymers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy Chowdhury, Amrita

The mobility of photo-injected charge carriers in molecularly-doped polymers (MDPs) exhibits a commonly observed, and nearly universal Poole-Frenkel field dependence, mu exp√(beta0E), that has been shown to arise from the correlated Gaussian energy distribution of transport sites encountered by charges undergoing hopping transport through the material. Analytical and numerical studies of photo-injected charge transport in these materials are presented here with an attempt to understand how specific features of the various models developed to describe these systems depend on the microscopic parameters that define them. Specifically, previously published time-of-flight mobility data for the molecularly doped polymer 30% DEH:PC (polycarbonate doped with 30 wt.% aromatic hydrazone DEH) is compared with direct analytical and numerical predictions of five disorder-based models, the Gaussian disorder model (GDM) of Bassler, and four correlated disorder models introduced by Novikov, et al., and by Parris, et al. In these numerical studies, disorder parameters describing each model were varied from reasonable starting conditions, in order to give the best overall fit. The uncorrelated GDM describes the Poole-Frenkel field dependence of the mobility only at very high fields, but fails for fields lower than about 64 V/mum. The correlated disorder models with small amounts of geometrical disorder do a good over-all job of reproducing a robust Poole-Frenkel field dependence, with correlated disorder theories that employ polaron transition rates showing qualitatively better agreement with experiment than those that employ Miller-Abrahams rates. In a separate study, the heuristic treatment of spatial or geometric disorder incorporated in existing theories is critiqued, and a randomly-diluted lattice gas model is developed to describe the spatial disorder of the transport sites in a more realistic way.

Spatial resolution and measurement uncertainty of strains in bone and bone-cement interface using digital volume correlation.

PubMed

Zhu, Ming-Liang; Zhang, Qing-Hang; Lupton, Colin; Tong, Jie

2016-04-01

The measurement uncertainty of strains has been assessed in a bone analogue (sawbone), bovine trabecular bone and bone-cement interface specimens under zero load using the Digital Volume Correlation (DVC) method. The effects of sub-volume size, sample constraint and preload on the measured strain uncertainty have been examined. There is generally a trade-off between the measurement uncertainty and the spatial resolution. Suitable sub-volume sizes have been be selected based on a compromise between the measurement uncertainty and the spatial resolution of the cases considered. A ratio of sub-volume size to a microstructure characteristic (Tb.Sp) was introduced to reflect a suitable spatial resolution, and the measurement uncertainty associated was assessed. Specifically, ratios between 1.6 and 4 appear to give rise to standard deviations in the measured strains between 166 and 620 με in all the cases considered, which would seem to suffice for strain analysis in pre as well as post yield loading regimes. A microscale finite element (μFE) model was built from the CT images of the sawbone, and the results from the μFE model and a continuum FE model were compared with those from the DVC. The strain results were found to differ significantly between the two methods at tissue level, consistent in trend with the results found in human bones, indicating mainly a limitation of the current DVC method in mapping strains at this level. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new spatial snow distribution in hydrological models parameterized from observed spatial variability of precipitation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Weltzien, Ingunn

2016-04-01

The traditional catchment hydrological model with its many free calibration parameters is not a well suited tool for prediction under conditions for which is has not been calibrated. Important tasks for hydrological modelling such as prediction in ungauged basins and assessing hydrological effects of climate change are hence not solved satisfactory. In order to reduce the number of calibration parameters in hydrological models we have introduced a new model which uses a dynamic gamma distribution as the spatial frequency distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE). The parameters are estimated from observed spatial variability of precipitation and the magnitude of accumulation and melting events and are hence not subject to calibration. The relationship between spatial mean and variance of precipitation is found to follow a pattern where decreasing temporal correlation with increasing accumulation or duration of the event leads to a levelling off or even a decrease of the spatial variance. The new model for snow distribution is implemented in the, already parameter parsimonious, DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) hydrological model and was tested for 71 Norwegian catchments. We compared the new snow distribution model with the current operational snow distribution model where a fixed, calibrated coefficient of variation parameterizes a log-normal model for snow distribution. Results show that the precision of runoff simulations is equal, but that the new snow distribution model better simulates snow covered area (SCA) when compared with MODIS satellite derived snow cover. In addition, SWE is simulated more realistically in that seasonal snow is melted out and the building up of "snow towers" is prevented and hence spurious trends in SWE.

Modelling soil properties in a crop field located in Croatia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogunovic, Igor; Pereira, Paulo; Millan, Mesic; Percin, Aleksandra; Zgorelec, Zeljka

2016-04-01

Development of tillage activities had negative effects on soil quality as destruction of soil horizons, compacting and aggregates destruction, increasing soil erosion and loss of organic matter. For a better management in order to mitigate the effects of intensive soil management in land degradation it is fundamental to map the spatial distribution of soil properties (Brevik et al., 2016). The understanding the distribution of the variables in space is very important for a sustainable management, in order to identify areas that need a potential intervention and decrease the economic losses (Galiati et al., 2016). The objective of this work is study the spatial distribution of some topsoil properties as clay, fine silt, coarse silt, fine sand, coarse sand, penetration resistance, moisture and organic matter in a crop field located in Croatia. A grid with 275x25 (625 m2) was designed and a total of 48 samples were collected. Previous to data modelling, data normality was checked using the Shapiro wilk-test. As in previous cases (Pereira et al., 2015), data did not followed the normal distribution, even after a logarithmic (Log), square-root, and box cox transformation. Thus, for modeling proposes, we used the log transformed data, since was the closest to the normality. In order to identify groups among the variables we applied a principal component analysis (PCA), based on the correlation matrix. On average clay content was 15.47% (±3.23), fine silt 24.24% (±4.08), coarse silt 35.34% (±3.12), fine sand 20.93% (±4.68), coarse sand 4.02% (±1.69), penetration resistance 0.66 MPa (±0.28), organic matter 1.51% (±0.25) and soil moisture 32.04% (±3.27). The results showed that the PCA identified three factors explained at least one of the variables. The first factor had high positive loadings in soil clay, fine silt and organic matter and a high negative loading in fine sand. The second factor had high positive loadings in coarse sand and moisture and a high negative loading in coarse silt. Finally, the factor 3 had a positive loading in penetration resistance. The loadings of these three factors were mapped using ordinary kriging method. The analysis of incremental spatial correlation identified that the highest spatial correlation in the factor 1 was identified at 41.87 m, in factor 2 at 75.61 m and factor 3 at 143.9 m. In the case of factor 2, the maximum peak of spatial autocorrelation was significant at a p<0.05. This showed that the variable has a random distribution, as confirmed with the Moran's I spatial correlation analysis. In relation to the other factors the maximum peaks were significantly clustered at a p<0.001. These results suggested that the each factor has a different spatial pattern and the studied soil properties explained by each factor had a different spatial distribution. References Breivik, E., Baumgarten, A., Calzolari, C., Miller, B., Pereira, P., Kabala, C., Jordán, A. Soil mapping, classification, and modelling: history and future directions. Geoderma, 264, Part B, 256-274. Galiati, A., Gristina, L., Crescimanno, Barone, E., Novara, A. (2016) Towards more efficient incentives for agri-environment measures in degraded and eroded vineyards. Land Degradation and Development, DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2389 Pereira, P., Cerdà, A., Úbeda, X., Mataix-Solera, J. Arcenegui, V., Zavala, L. (2015) Modelling the impacts of wildfire on ash thickness in a short-term period, Land Degradation and Development, 26, 180-192.

Proximal Soil Sensing – A Contribution for Species Habitat Distribution Modelling of Earthworms in Agricultural Soils?

PubMed Central

Schirrmann, Michael; Joschko, Monika; Gebbers, Robin; Kramer, Eckart; Zörner, Mirjam; Barkusky, Dietmar; Timmer, Jens

2016-01-01

Background Earthworms are important for maintaining soil ecosystem functioning and serve as indicators of soil fertility. However, detection of earthworms is time-consuming, which hinders the assessment of earthworm abundances with high sampling density over entire fields. Recent developments of mobile terrestrial sensor platforms for proximal soil sensing (PSS) provided new tools for collecting dense spatial information of soils using various sensing principles. Yet, the potential of PSS for assessing earthworm habitats is largely unexplored. This study investigates whether PSS data contribute to the spatial prediction of earthworm abundances in species distribution models of agricultural soils. Methodology/Principal Findings Proximal soil sensing data, e.g., soil electrical conductivity (EC), pH, and near infrared absorbance (NIR), were collected in real-time in a field with two management strategies (reduced tillage / conventional tillage) and sandy to loam soils. PSS was related to observations from a long-term (11 years) earthworm observation study conducted at 42 plots. Earthworms were sampled from 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.2 m³ soil blocks and identified to species level. Sensor data were highly correlated with earthworm abundances observed in reduced tillage but less correlated with earthworm abundances observed in conventional tillage. This may indicate that management influences the sensor-earthworm relationship. Generalized additive models and state-space models showed that modelling based on data fusion from EC, pH, and NIR sensors produced better results than modelling without sensor data or data from just a single sensor. Regarding the individual earthworm species, particular sensor combinations were more appropriate than others due to the different habitat requirements of the earthworms. Earthworm species with soil-specific habitat preferences were spatially predicted with higher accuracy by PSS than more ubiquitous species. Conclusions/Significance Our findings suggest that PSS contributes to the spatial modelling of earthworm abundances at field scale and that it will support species distribution modelling in the attempt to understand the soil-earthworm relationships in agroecosystems. PMID:27355340

Proximal Soil Sensing - A Contribution for Species Habitat Distribution Modelling of Earthworms in Agricultural Soils?

PubMed

Schirrmann, Michael; Joschko, Monika; Gebbers, Robin; Kramer, Eckart; Zörner, Mirjam; Barkusky, Dietmar; Timmer, Jens

2016-01-01

Earthworms are important for maintaining soil ecosystem functioning and serve as indicators of soil fertility. However, detection of earthworms is time-consuming, which hinders the assessment of earthworm abundances with high sampling density over entire fields. Recent developments of mobile terrestrial sensor platforms for proximal soil sensing (PSS) provided new tools for collecting dense spatial information of soils using various sensing principles. Yet, the potential of PSS for assessing earthworm habitats is largely unexplored. This study investigates whether PSS data contribute to the spatial prediction of earthworm abundances in species distribution models of agricultural soils. Proximal soil sensing data, e.g., soil electrical conductivity (EC), pH, and near infrared absorbance (NIR), were collected in real-time in a field with two management strategies (reduced tillage / conventional tillage) and sandy to loam soils. PSS was related to observations from a long-term (11 years) earthworm observation study conducted at 42 plots. Earthworms were sampled from 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.2 m³ soil blocks and identified to species level. Sensor data were highly correlated with earthworm abundances observed in reduced tillage but less correlated with earthworm abundances observed in conventional tillage. This may indicate that management influences the sensor-earthworm relationship. Generalized additive models and state-space models showed that modelling based on data fusion from EC, pH, and NIR sensors produced better results than modelling without sensor data or data from just a single sensor. Regarding the individual earthworm species, particular sensor combinations were more appropriate than others due to the different habitat requirements of the earthworms. Earthworm species with soil-specific habitat preferences were spatially predicted with higher accuracy by PSS than more ubiquitous species. Our findings suggest that PSS contributes to the spatial modelling of earthworm abundances at field scale and that it will support species distribution modelling in the attempt to understand the soil-earthworm relationships in agroecosystems.

Hierarchical spatial models of abundance and occurrence from imperfect survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Kery, M.; Gautier, R.; Schmid, Hans

2007-01-01

Many estimation and inference problems arising from large-scale animal surveys are focused on developing an understanding of patterns in abundance or occurrence of a species based on spatially referenced count data. One fundamental challenge, then, is that it is generally not feasible to completely enumerate ('census') all individuals present in each sample unit. This observation bias may consist of several components, including spatial coverage bias (not all individuals in the Population are exposed to sampling) and detection bias (exposed individuals may go undetected). Thus, observations are biased for the state variable (abundance, occupancy) that is the object of inference. Moreover, data are often sparse for most observation locations, requiring consideration of methods for spatially aggregating or otherwise combining sparse data among sample units. The development of methods that unify spatial statistical models with models accommodating non-detection is necessary to resolve important spatial inference problems based on animal survey data. In this paper, we develop a novel hierarchical spatial model for estimation of abundance and occurrence from survey data wherein detection is imperfect. Our application is focused on spatial inference problems in the Swiss Survey of Common Breeding Birds. The observation model for the survey data is specified conditional on the unknown quadrat population size, N(s). We augment the observation model with a spatial process model for N(s), describing the spatial variation in abundance of the species. The model includes explicit sources of variation in habitat structure (forest, elevation) and latent variation in the form of a correlated spatial process. This provides a model-based framework for combining the spatially referenced samples while at the same time yielding a unified treatment of estimation problems involving both abundance and occurrence. We provide a Bayesian framework for analysis and prediction based on the integrated likelihood, and we use the model to obtain estimates of abundance and occurrence maps for the European Jay (Garrulus glandarius), a widespread, elusive, forest bird. The naive national abundance estimate ignoring imperfect detection and incomplete quadrat coverage was 77 766 territories. Accounting for imperfect detection added approximately 18 000 territories, and adjusting for coverage bias added another 131 000 territories to yield a fully corrected estimate of the national total of about 227 000 territories. This is approximately three times as high as previous estimates that assume every territory is detected in each quadrat.

Towards a 3d Spatial Urban Energy Modelling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahu, J.-M.; Koch, A.; Kremers, E.; Murshed, S. M.

2013-09-01

Today's needs to reduce the environmental impact of energy use impose dramatic changes for energy infrastructure and existing demand patterns (e.g. buildings) corresponding to their specific context. In addition, future energy systems are expected to integrate a considerable share of fluctuating power sources and equally a high share of distributed generation of electricity. Energy system models capable of describing such future systems and allowing the simulation of the impact of these developments thus require a spatial representation in order to reflect the local context and the boundary conditions. This paper describes two recent research approaches developed at EIFER in the fields of (a) geo-localised simulation of heat energy demand in cities based on 3D morphological data and (b) spatially explicit Agent-Based Models (ABM) for the simulation of smart grids. 3D city models were used to assess solar potential and heat energy demand of residential buildings which enable cities to target the building refurbishment potentials. Distributed energy systems require innovative modelling techniques where individual components are represented and can interact. With this approach, several smart grid demonstrators were simulated, where heterogeneous models are spatially represented. Coupling 3D geodata with energy system ABMs holds different advantages for both approaches. On one hand, energy system models can be enhanced with high resolution data from 3D city models and their semantic relations. Furthermore, they allow for spatial analysis and visualisation of the results, with emphasis on spatially and structurally correlations among the different layers (e.g. infrastructure, buildings, administrative zones) to provide an integrated approach. On the other hand, 3D models can benefit from more detailed system description of energy infrastructure, representing dynamic phenomena and high resolution models for energy use at component level. The proposed modelling strategies conceptually and practically integrate urban spatial and energy planning approaches. The combined modelling approach that will be developed based on the described sectorial models holds the potential to represent hybrid energy systems coupling distributed generation of electricity with thermal conversion systems.

A Multivariate Dynamic Spatial Factor Model for Speciated Pollutants and Adverse Birth Outcomes

DOE PAGES

Kaufeld, Kimberly Ann; Fuentes, Montse; Reich, Brian J.; ...

2017-09-11

Evidence suggests that exposure to elevated concentrations of air pollution during pregnancy is associated with increased risks of birth defects and other adverse birth outcomes. While current regulations put limits on total PM2.5 concentrations, there are many speciated pollutants within this size class that likely have distinct effects on perinatal health. However, due to correlations between these speciated pollutants, it can be difficult to decipher their effects in a model for birth outcomes. To combat this difficulty, we develop a multivariate spatio-temporal Bayesian model for speciated particulate matter using dynamic spatial factors. These spatial factors can then be interpolated tomore » the pregnant women’s homes to be used to model birth defects. The birth defect model allows the impact of pollutants to vary across different weeks of the pregnancy in order to identify susceptible periods. Here, the proposed methodology is illustrated using pollutant monitoring data from the Environmental Protection Agency and birth records from the National Birth Defect Prevention Study.« less

A Multivariate Dynamic Spatial Factor Model for Speciated Pollutants and Adverse Birth Outcomes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaufeld, Kimberly Ann; Fuentes, Montse; Reich, Brian J.

Evidence suggests that exposure to elevated concentrations of air pollution during pregnancy is associated with increased risks of birth defects and other adverse birth outcomes. While current regulations put limits on total PM2.5 concentrations, there are many speciated pollutants within this size class that likely have distinct effects on perinatal health. However, due to correlations between these speciated pollutants, it can be difficult to decipher their effects in a model for birth outcomes. To combat this difficulty, we develop a multivariate spatio-temporal Bayesian model for speciated particulate matter using dynamic spatial factors. These spatial factors can then be interpolated tomore » the pregnant women’s homes to be used to model birth defects. The birth defect model allows the impact of pollutants to vary across different weeks of the pregnancy in order to identify susceptible periods. Here, the proposed methodology is illustrated using pollutant monitoring data from the Environmental Protection Agency and birth records from the National Birth Defect Prevention Study.« less

An alternative way to evaluate chemistry-transport model variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menut, Laurent; Mailler, Sylvain; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Siour, Guillaume; Colette, Augustin; Couvidat, Florian; Meleux, Frédérik

2017-03-01

A simple and complementary model evaluation technique for regional chemistry transport is discussed. The methodology is based on the concept that we can learn about model performance by comparing the simulation results with observational data available for time periods other than the period originally targeted. First, the statistical indicators selected in this study (spatial and temporal correlations) are computed for a given time period, using colocated observation and simulation data in time and space. Second, the same indicators are used to calculate scores for several other years while conserving the spatial locations and Julian days of the year. The difference between the results provides useful insights on the model capability to reproduce the observed day-to-day and spatial variability. In order to synthesize the large amount of results, a new indicator is proposed, designed to compare several error statistics between all the years of validation and to quantify whether the period and area being studied were well captured by the model for the correct reasons.

The Angular Three-Point Correlation Function in the Quasi-linear Regime

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buchalter, Ari; Kamionkowski, Marc; Jaffe, Andrew H.

2000-02-10

We calculate the normalized angular three-point correlation function (3PCF), q, as well as the normalized angular skewness, s{sub 3}, assuming the small-angle approximation, for a biased mass distribution in flat and open cold dark matter (CDM) models with Gaussian initial conditions. The leading-order perturbative results incorporate the explicit dependence on the cosmological parameters, the shape of the CDM transfer function, the linear evolution of the power spectrum, the form of the assumed redshift distribution function, and linear and nonlinear biasing, which may be evolving. Results are presented for different redshift distributions, including that appropriate for the APM Galaxy Survey, asmore » well as for a survey with a mean redshift of z{approx_equal}1 (such as the VLA FIRST Survey). Qualitatively, many of the results found for s{sub 3} and q are similar to those obtained in a related treatment of the spatial skewness and 3PCF, such as a leading-order correction to the standard result for s{sub 3} in the case of nonlinear bias (as defined for unsmoothed density fields), and the sensitivity of the configuration dependence of q to both cosmological and biasing models. We show that since angular correlation functions (CFs) are sensitive to clustering over a range of redshifts, the various evolutionary dependences included in our predictions imply that measurements of q in a deep survey might better discriminate between models with different histories, such as evolving versus nonevolving bias, that can have similar spatial CFs at low redshift. Our calculations employ a derived equation, valid for open, closed, and flat models, to obtain the angular bispectrum from the spatial bispectrum in the small-angle approximation. (c) (c) 2000. The American Astronomical Society.« less

Synchrony, Waves, and Spatial Hierarchies in the Spread of Influenza

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viboud, Cécile; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; Smith, David L.; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

2006-04-01

Quantifying long-range dissemination of infectious diseases is a key issue in their dynamics and control. Here, we use influenza-related mortality data to analyze the between-state progression of interpandemic influenza in the United States over the past 30 years. Outbreaks show hierarchical spatial spread evidenced by higher pairwise synchrony between more populous states. Seasons with higher influenza mortality are associated with higher disease transmission and more rapid spread than are mild ones. The regional spread of infection correlates more closely with rates of movement of people to and from their workplaces (workflows) than with geographical distance. Workflows are described in turn by a gravity model, with a rapid decay of commuting up to around 100 km and a long tail of rare longer range flow. A simple epidemiological model, based on the gravity formulation, captures the observed increase of influenza spatial synchrony with transmissibility; high transmission allows influenza to spread rapidly beyond local spatial constraints.

Correlation Factors Describing Primary and Spatial Sensations of Sound Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ANDO, Y.

2002-11-01

The theory of subjective preference of the sound field in a concert hall is established based on the model of human auditory-brain system. The model consists of the autocorrelation function (ACF) mechanism and the interaural crosscorrelation function (IACF) mechanism for signals arriving at two ear entrances, and the specialization of human cerebral hemispheres. This theory can be developed to describe primary sensations such as pitch or missing fundamental, loudness, timbre and, in addition, duration sensation which is introduced here as a fourth. These four primary sensations may be formulated by the temporal factors extracted from the ACF associated with the left hemisphere and, spatial sensations such as localization in the horizontal plane, apparent source width and subjective diffuseness are described by the spatial factors extracted from the IACF associated with the right hemisphere. Any important subjective responses of sound fields may be described by both temporal and spatial factors.

Biodiversity and ecosystem stability across scales in metacommunities

PubMed Central

Wang, Shaopeng; Loreau, Michel

2016-01-01

Although diversity-stability relationships have been extensively studied in local ecosystems, the global biodiversity crisis calls for an improved understanding of these relationships in a spatial context. Here we use a dynamical model of competitive metacommunities to study the relationships between species diversity and ecosystem variability across scales. We derive analytic relationships under a limiting case; these results are extended to more general cases with numerical simulations. Our model shows that, while alpha diversity decreases local ecosystem variability, beta diversity generally contributes to increasing spatial asynchrony among local ecosystems. Consequently, both alpha and beta diversity provide stabilizing effects for regional ecosystems, through local and spatial insurance effects, respectively. We further show that at the regional scale, the stabilizing effect of biodiversity increases as spatial environmental correlation increases. Our findings have important implications for understanding the interactive effects of global environmental changes (e.g. environmental homogenization) and biodiversity loss on ecosystem sustainability at large scales. PMID:26918536

Memory effects in active particles with exponentially correlated propulsion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandford, Cato; Grosberg, Alexander Y.

2018-01-01

The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck particle (OUP) model imagines a microscopic swimmer propelled by an active force which is correlated with itself on a finite time scale. Here we investigate the influence of external potentials on an ideal suspension of OUPs, in both one and two spatial dimensions, with particular attention paid to the pressure exerted on "confining walls." We employ a mathematical connection between the local density of OUPs and the statistics of their propulsion force to demonstrate the existence of an equation of state in one dimension. In higher dimensions we show that active particles generate a nonconservative force field in the surrounding medium. A simplified far-from-equilibrium model is proposed to account for OUP behavior in the vicinity of potentials. Building on this, we interpret simulations of OUPs in more complicated situations involving asymmetrical and spatially curved potentials, and characterize the resulting inhomogeneous stresses in terms of competing active length scales.

Power-law decay of the spatial correlation function in exciton-polariton condensates

PubMed Central

Roumpos, Georgios; Lohse, Michael; Nitsche, Wolfgang H.; Keeling, Jonathan; Szymańska, Marzena Hanna; Littlewood, Peter B.; Löffler, Andreas; Höfling, Sven; Worschech, Lukas; Forchel, Alfred; Yamamoto, Yoshihisa

2012-01-01

We create a large exciton-polariton condensate and employ a Michelson interferometer setup to characterize the short- and long-distance behavior of the first order spatial correlation function. Our experimental results show distinct features of both the two-dimensional and nonequilibrium characters of the condensate. We find that the gaussian short-distance decay is followed by a power-law decay at longer distances, as expected for a two-dimensional condensate. The exponent of the power law is measured in the range 0.9–1.2, larger than is possible in equilibrium. We compare the experimental results to a theoretical model to understand the features required to observe a power law and to clarify the influence of external noise on spatial coherence in nonequilibrium phase transitions. Our results indicate that Berezinskii–Kosterlitz–Thouless-like phase order survives in open-dissipative systems. PMID:22496595

Modeling spatially-varying landscape change points in species occurrence thresholds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Midway, Stephen R.

2014-01-01

Predicting species distributions at scales of regions to continents is often necessary, as large-scale phenomena influence the distributions of spatially structured populations. Land use and land cover are important large-scale drivers of species distributions, and landscapes are known to create species occurrence thresholds, where small changes in a landscape characteristic results in abrupt changes in occurrence. The value of the landscape characteristic at which this change occurs is referred to as a change point. We present a hierarchical Bayesian threshold model (HBTM) that allows for estimating spatially varying parameters, including change points. Our model also allows for modeling estimated parameters in an effort to understand large-scale drivers of variability in land use and land cover on species occurrence thresholds. We use range-wide detection/nondetection data for the eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a stream-dwelling salmonid, to illustrate our HBTM for estimating and modeling spatially varying threshold parameters in species occurrence. We parameterized the model for investigating thresholds in landscape predictor variables that are measured as proportions, and which are therefore restricted to values between 0 and 1. Our HBTM estimated spatially varying thresholds in brook trout occurrence for both the proportion agricultural and urban land uses. There was relatively little spatial variation in change point estimates, although there was spatial variability in the overall shape of the threshold response and associated uncertainty. In addition, regional mean stream water temperature was correlated to the change point parameters for the proportion of urban land use, with the change point value increasing with increasing mean stream water temperature. We present a framework for quantify macrosystem variability in spatially varying threshold model parameters in relation to important large-scale drivers such as land use and land cover. Although the model presented is a logistic HBTM, it can easily be extended to accommodate other statistical distributions for modeling species richness or abundance.

Spatial autocorrelation analysis of health care hotspots in Taiwan in 2006

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Spatial analytical techniques and models are often used in epidemiology to identify spatial anomalies (hotspots) in disease regions. These analytical approaches can be used to not only identify the location of such hotspots, but also their spatial patterns. Methods In this study, we utilize spatial autocorrelation methodologies, including Global Moran's I and Local Getis-Ord statistics, to describe and map spatial clusters, and areas in which these are situated, for the 20 leading causes of death in Taiwan. In addition, we use the fit to a logistic regression model to test the characteristics of similarity and dissimilarity by gender. Results Gender is compared in efforts to formulate the common spatial risk. The mean found by local spatial autocorrelation analysis is utilized to identify spatial cluster patterns. There is naturally great interest in discovering the relationship between the leading causes of death and well-documented spatial risk factors. For example, in Taiwan, we found the geographical distribution of clusters where there is a prevalence of tuberculosis to closely correspond to the location of aboriginal townships. Conclusions Cluster mapping helps to clarify issues such as the spatial aspects of both internal and external correlations for leading health care events. This is of great aid in assessing spatial risk factors, which in turn facilitates the planning of the most advantageous types of health care policies and implementation of effective health care services. PMID:20003460

Can trait patterns along gradients predict plant community responses to climate change?

PubMed

Guittar, John; Goldberg, Deborah; Klanderud, Kari; Telford, Richard J; Vandvik, Vigdis

2016-10-01

Plant functional traits vary consistently along climate gradients and are therefore potential predictors of plant community response to climate change. We test this space-for-time assumption by combining a spatial gradient study with whole-community turf transplantation along temperature and precipitation gradients in a network of 12 grassland sites in Southern Norway. Using data on eight traits for 169 species and annual vegetation censuses of 235 turfs over 5 yr, we quantify trait-based responses to climate change by comparing observed community dynamics in transplanted turfs to field-parameterized null model simulations. Three traits related to species architecture (maximum height, number of dormant meristems, and ramet-ramet connection persistence) varied consistently along spatial temperature gradients and also correlated to changes in species abundances in turfs transplanted to warmer climates. Two traits associated with resource acquisition strategy (SLA, leaf area) increased along spatial temperature gradients but did not correlate to changes in species abundances following warming. No traits correlated consistently with precipitation. Our study supports the hypothesis that spatial associations between plant traits and broad-scale climate variables can be predictive of community response to climate change, but it also suggests that not all traits with clear patterns along climate gradients will necessarily influence community response to an equal degree. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Stability-driven nonnegative matrix factorization to interpret spatial gene expression and build local gene networks.

PubMed

Wu, Siqi; Joseph, Antony; Hammonds, Ann S; Celniker, Susan E; Yu, Bin; Frise, Erwin

2016-04-19

Spatial gene expression patterns enable the detection of local covariability and are extremely useful for identifying local gene interactions during normal development. The abundance of spatial expression data in recent years has led to the modeling and analysis of regulatory networks. The inherent complexity of such data makes it a challenge to extract biological information. We developed staNMF, a method that combines a scalable implementation of nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) with a new stability-driven model selection criterion. When applied to a set ofDrosophilaearly embryonic spatial gene expression images, one of the largest datasets of its kind, staNMF identified 21 principal patterns (PP). Providing a compact yet biologically interpretable representation ofDrosophilaexpression patterns, PP are comparable to a fate map generated experimentally by laser ablation and show exceptional promise as a data-driven alternative to manual annotations. Our analysis mapped genes to cell-fate programs and assigned putative biological roles to uncharacterized genes. Finally, we used the PP to generate local transcription factor regulatory networks. Spatially local correlation networks were constructed for six PP that span along the embryonic anterior-posterior axis. Using a two-tail 5% cutoff on correlation, we reproduced 10 of the 11 links in the well-studied gap gene network. The performance of PP with theDrosophiladata suggests that staNMF provides informative decompositions and constitutes a useful computational lens through which to extract biological insight from complex and often noisy gene expression data.

Multiscale Spatial Assessment of Determinant Factors of Land Use Change: Study at Urban Area of Yogyakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susilo, Bowo

2017-12-01

Studies of land use change have been undertaken by different researchers using various methods. Among those methods, modelling is widely utilized. Modelling land use change required several components remarked as model variables. Those represent any conditions or factors which considered relevant or have some degree of correlation to the changes of land use. Variables which have significant correlation to land use change are referred as determinant factors or driving forces. Those factors as well as changes of land use are distributed across space and therefore referred as spatial determinant factors. The main objective of the research was to examine land use change and its determinant factors. Area and location of land use change were analysed based on three different years of land use maps, which are 1993, 2000 and 2007. Spatial and temporal analysis were performed which emphasize to the influence of scale to both of analysis’s. Urban area of Yogyakarta was selected as study area. Study area covered three different districts (kabupaten), involving 20 sub districts and totally consists of 74 villages. Result of this study shows that during 14 years periods (1993 to 2007), there were about 1,460 hectares of land use change had been taken place. Dominant type of land use change is agricultural to residential. The uses of different spatial and temporal scale in analysis were able to reveal different factors related to land use change. In general, factors influencing the quantities of land use change in the study area were population growth and the availability of land. The use of data with different spatial resolution can reveal the presence of various factors associated with the location of the change. Locations of land use change were influenced or determined by accessibility factors.

Macro-level safety analysis of pedestrian crashes in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Wang, Xuesong; Yang, Junguang; Lee, Chris; Ji, Zhuoran; You, Shikai

2016-11-01

Pedestrian safety has become one of the most important issues in the field of traffic safety. This study aims at investigating the association between pedestrian crash frequency and various predictor variables including roadway, socio-economic, and land-use features. The relationships were modeled using the data from 263 Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) within the urban area of Shanghai - the largest city in China. Since spatial correlation exists among the zonal-level data, Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) models with seven different spatial weight features (i.e. (a) 0-1 first order, adjacency-based, (b) common boundary-length-based, (c) geometric centroid-distance-based, (d) crash-weighted centroid-distance-based, (e) land use type, adjacency-based, (f) land use intensity, adjacency-based, and (g) geometric centroid-distance-order) were developed to characterize the spatial correlations among TAZs. Model results indicated that the geometric centroid-distance-order spatial weight feature, which was introduced in macro-level safety analysis for the first time, outperformed all the other spatial weight features. Population was used as the surrogate for pedestrian exposure, and had a positive effect on pedestrian crashes. Other significant factors included length of major arterials, length of minor arterials, road density, average intersection spacing, percentage of 3-legged intersections, and area of TAZ. Pedestrian crashes were higher in TAZs with medium land use intensity than in TAZs with low and high land use intensity. Thus, higher priority should be given to TAZs with medium land use intensity to improve pedestrian safety. Overall, these findings can help transportation planners and managers understand the characteristics of pedestrian crashes and improve pedestrian safety. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Geographic Concentration of Enterprise in Developing Countries

PubMed Central

Felkner, John S.; Townsend, Robert M.

2011-01-01

A nation’s economic geography can have an enormous impact on its development. In Thailand, we show that a high concentration of enterprise in an area predicts high subsequent growth in and around that area. We also find spatially contiguous convergence of enterprise with stagnant areas left behind. Exogenous physiographic conditions are correlated with enterprise location and growth. We fit a structural, micro-founded model of occupation transitions with fine-tuned geographic capabilities to village data and replicate these salient facts. Key elements of the model include costs, credit constraints on occupation choice, and spatially varying expansion of financial service providers. PMID:22844158

Hindcasting of decadal‐timescale estuarine bathymetric change with a tidal‐timescale model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, Neil K.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Jaffe, Bruce E.

2009-01-01

Hindcasting decadal-timescale bathymetric change in estuaries is prone to error due to limited data for initial conditions, boundary forcing, and calibration; computational limitations further hinder efforts. We developed and calibrated a tidal-timescale model to bathymetric change in Suisun Bay, California, over the 1867–1887 period. A general, multiple-timescale calibration ensured robustness over all timescales; two input reduction methods, the morphological hydrograph and the morphological acceleration factor, were applied at the decadal timescale. The model was calibrated to net bathymetric change in the entire basin; average error for bathymetric change over individual depth ranges was 37%. On a model cell-by-cell basis, performance for spatial amplitude correlation was poor over the majority of the domain, though spatial phase correlation was better, with 61% of the domain correctly indicated as erosional or depositional. Poor agreement was likely caused by the specification of initial bed composition, which was unknown during the 1867–1887 period. Cross-sectional bathymetric change between channels and flats, driven primarily by wind wave resuspension, was modeled with higher skill than longitudinal change, which is driven in part by gravitational circulation. The accelerated response of depth may have prevented gravitational circulation from being represented properly. As performance criteria became more stringent in a spatial sense, the error of the model increased. While these methods are useful for estimating basin-scale sedimentation changes, they may not be suitable for predicting specific locations of erosion or deposition. They do, however, provide a foundation for realistic estuarine geomorphic modeling applications.

Burstiness in Viral Bursts: How Stochasticity Affects Spatial Patterns in Virus-Microbe Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yu-Hui; Taylor, Bradford P.; Weitz, Joshua S.

Spatial patterns emerge in living systems at the scale of microbes to metazoans. These patterns can be driven, in part, by the stochasticity inherent to the birth and death of individuals. For microbe-virus systems, infection and lysis of hosts by viruses results in both mortality of hosts and production of viral progeny. Here, we study how variation in the number of viral progeny per lysis event affects the spatial clustering of both viruses and microbes. Each viral ''burst'' is initially localized at a near-cellular scale. The number of progeny in a single lysis event can vary in magnitude between tens and thousands. These perturbations are not accounted for in mean-field models. Here we developed individual-based models to investigate how stochasticity affects spatial patterns in virus-microbe systems. We measured the spatial clustering of individuals using pair correlation functions. We found that increasing the burst size of viruses while maintaining the same production rate led to enhanced clustering. In this poster we also report on preliminary analysis on the evolution of the burstiness of viral bursts given a spatially distributed host community.

Auditory spatial processing in Alzheimer’s disease

PubMed Central

Golden, Hannah L.; Nicholas, Jennifer M.; Yong, Keir X. X.; Downey, Laura E.; Schott, Jonathan M.; Mummery, Catherine J.; Crutch, Sebastian J.

2015-01-01

The location and motion of sounds in space are important cues for encoding the auditory world. Spatial processing is a core component of auditory scene analysis, a cognitively demanding function that is vulnerable in Alzheimer’s disease. Here we designed a novel neuropsychological battery based on a virtual space paradigm to assess auditory spatial processing in patient cohorts with clinically typical Alzheimer’s disease (n = 20) and its major variant syndrome, posterior cortical atrophy (n = 12) in relation to healthy older controls (n = 26). We assessed three dimensions of auditory spatial function: externalized versus non-externalized sound discrimination, moving versus stationary sound discrimination and stationary auditory spatial position discrimination, together with non-spatial auditory and visual spatial control tasks. Neuroanatomical correlates of auditory spatial processing were assessed using voxel-based morphometry. Relative to healthy older controls, both patient groups exhibited impairments in detection of auditory motion, and stationary sound position discrimination. The posterior cortical atrophy group showed greater impairment for auditory motion processing and the processing of a non-spatial control complex auditory property (timbre) than the typical Alzheimer’s disease group. Voxel-based morphometry in the patient cohort revealed grey matter correlates of auditory motion detection and spatial position discrimination in right inferior parietal cortex and precuneus, respectively. These findings delineate auditory spatial processing deficits in typical and posterior Alzheimer’s disease phenotypes that are related to posterior cortical regions involved in both syndromic variants and modulated by the syndromic profile of brain degeneration. Auditory spatial deficits contribute to impaired spatial awareness in Alzheimer’s disease and may constitute a novel perceptual model for probing brain network disintegration across the Alzheimer’s disease syndromic spectrum. PMID:25468732

Local Geostatistical Models and Big Data in Hydrological and Ecological Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hristopulos, Dionissios

2015-04-01

The advent of the big data era creates new opportunities for environmental and ecological modelling but also presents significant challenges. The availability of remote sensing images and low-cost wireless sensor networks implies that spatiotemporal environmental data to cover larger spatial domains at higher spatial and temporal resolution for longer time windows. Handling such voluminous data presents several technical and scientific challenges. In particular, the geostatistical methods used to process spatiotemporal data need to overcome the dimensionality curse associated with the need to store and invert large covariance matrices. There are various mathematical approaches for addressing the dimensionality problem, including change of basis, dimensionality reduction, hierarchical schemes, and local approximations. We present a Stochastic Local Interaction (SLI) model that can be used to model local correlations in spatial data. SLI is a random field model suitable for data on discrete supports (i.e., regular lattices or irregular sampling grids). The degree of localization is determined by means of kernel functions and appropriate bandwidths. The strength of the correlations is determined by means of coefficients. In the "plain vanilla" version the parameter set involves scale and rigidity coefficients as well as a characteristic length. The latter determines in connection with the rigidity coefficient the correlation length of the random field. The SLI model is based on statistical field theory and extends previous research on Spartan spatial random fields [2,3] from continuum spaces to explicitly discrete supports. The SLI kernel functions employ adaptive bandwidths learned from the sampling spatial distribution [1]. The SLI precision matrix is expressed explicitly in terms of the model parameter and the kernel function. Hence, covariance matrix inversion is not necessary for parameter inference that is based on leave-one-out cross validation. This property helps to overcome a significant computational bottleneck of geostatistical models due to the poor scaling of the matrix inversion [4,5]. We present applications to real and simulated data sets, including the Walker lake data, and we investigate the SLI performance using various statistical cross validation measures. References [1] T. Hofmann, B. Schlkopf, A.J. Smola, Annals of Statistics, 36, 1171-1220 (2008). [2] D. T. Hristopulos, SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, 24(6): 2125-2162 (2003). [3] D. T. Hristopulos and S. N. Elogne, IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 57(9): 3475-3487 (2009) [4] G. Jona Lasinio, G. Mastrantonio, and A. Pollice, Statistical Methods and Applications, 22(1):97-112 (2013) [5] Sun, Y., B. Li, and M. G. Genton (2012). Geostatistics for large datasets. In: Advances and Challenges in Space-time Modelling of Natural Events, Lecture Notes in Statistics, pp. 55-77. Springer, Berlin-Heidelberg.

Global and 3D Spatial Assessment of Neuroinflammation in Rodent Models of Multiple Sclerosis

PubMed Central

Gupta, Shashank; Utoft, Regine; Hasseldam, Henrik; Schmidt-Christensen, Anja; Hannibal, Tine Dahlbaek; Hansen, Lisbeth; Fransén-Pettersson, Nina; Agarwal-Gupta, Noopur; Rozell, Björn; Andersson, Åsa; Holmberg, Dan

2013-01-01

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a progressive autoimmune inflammatory and demyelinating disease of the central nervous system (CNS). T cells play a key role in the progression of neuroinflammation in MS and also in the experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) animal models for the disease. A technology for quantitative and 3 dimensional (3D) spatial assessment of inflammation in this and other CNS inflammatory conditions is much needed. Here we present a procedure for 3D spatial assessment and global quantification of the development of neuroinflammation based on Optical Projection Tomography (OPT). Applying this approach to the analysis of rodent models of MS, we provide global quantitative data of the major inflammatory component as a function of the clinical course. Our data demonstrates a strong correlation between the development and progression of neuroinflammation and clinical disease in several mouse and a rat model of MS refining the information regarding the spatial dynamics of the inflammatory component in EAE. This method provides a powerful tool to investigate the effect of environmental and genetic forces and for assessing the therapeutic effects of drug therapy in animal models of MS and other neuroinflammatory/neurodegenerative disorders. PMID:24124545

Modeling vertebrate diversity in Oregon using satellite imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cablk, Mary Elizabeth

Vertebrate diversity was modeled for the state of Oregon using a parametric approach to regression tree analysis. This exploratory data analysis effectively modeled the non-linear relationships between vertebrate richness and phenology, terrain, and climate. Phenology was derived from time-series NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery for the year 1992 using two methods: principal component analysis and derivation of EROS data center greenness metrics. These two measures of spatial and temporal vegetation condition incorporated the critical temporal element in this analysis. The first three principal components were shown to contain spatial and temporal information about the landscape and discriminated phenologically distinct regions in Oregon. Principal components 2 and 3, 6 greenness metrics, elevation, slope, aspect, annual precipitation, and annual seasonal temperature difference were investigated as correlates to amphibians, birds, all vertebrates, reptiles, and mammals. Variation explained for each regression tree by taxa were: amphibians (91%), birds (67%), all vertebrates (66%), reptiles (57%), and mammals (55%). Spatial statistics were used to quantify the pattern of each taxa and assess validity of resulting predictions from regression tree models. Regression tree analysis was relatively robust against spatial autocorrelation in the response data and graphical results indicated models were well fit to the data.

An Examination of the Demographic and Environmental Variables Correlated with Lyme Disease Emergence in Virginia.

PubMed

Seukep, Sara E; Kolivras, Korine N; Hong, Yili; Li, Jie; Prisley, Stephen P; Campbell, James B; Gaines, David N; Dymond, Randel L

2015-12-01

Lyme disease is the United States' most significant vector-borne illness. Virginia, on the southern edge of the disease's currently expanding range, has experienced an increase in Lyme disease both spatially and temporally, with steadily increasing rates over the past decade and disease spread from the northern to the southwestern part of the state. This study used a Geographic Information System and a spatial Poisson regression model to examine correlations between demographic and land cover variables, and human Lyme disease from 2006 to 2010 in Virginia. Analysis indicated that herbaceous land cover is positively correlated with Lyme disease incidence rates. Areas with greater interspersion between herbaceous and forested land were also positively correlated with incidence rates. In addition, income and age were positively correlated with incidence rates. Levels of development, interspersion of herbaceous and developed land, and population density were negatively correlated with incidence rates. Abundance of forest fragments less than 2 hectares in area was not significantly correlated. Our results support some findings of previous studies on ecological variables and Lyme disease in endemic areas, but other results have not been found in previous studies, highlighting the potential contribution of new variables as Lyme disease continues to emerge southward.

Daily ambient air pollution metrics for five cities: Evaluation of data-fusion-based estimates and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friberg, Mariel D.; Kahn, Ralph A.; Holmes, Heather A.; Chang, Howard H.; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt; Tolbert, Paige E.; Russell, Armistead G.; Mulholland, James A.

2017-06-01

Spatiotemporal characterization of ambient air pollutant concentrations is increasingly relying on the combination of observations and air quality models to provide well-constrained, spatially and temporally complete pollutant concentration fields. Air quality models, in particular, are attractive, as they characterize the emissions, meteorological, and physiochemical process linkages explicitly while providing continuous spatial structure. However, such modeling is computationally intensive and has biases. The limitations of spatially sparse and temporally incomplete observations can be overcome by blending the data with estimates from a physically and chemically coherent model, driven by emissions and meteorological inputs. We recently developed a data fusion method that blends ambient ground observations and chemical-transport-modeled (CTM) data to estimate daily, spatially resolved pollutant concentrations and associated correlations. In this study, we assess the ability of the data fusion method to produce daily metrics (i.e., 1-hr max, 8-hr max, and 24-hr average) of ambient air pollution that capture spatiotemporal air pollution trends for 12 pollutants (CO, NO2, NOx, O3, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, and five PM2.5 components) across five metropolitan areas (Atlanta, Birmingham, Dallas, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis), from 2002 to 2008. Three sets of comparisons are performed: (1) the CTM concentrations are evaluated for each pollutant and metropolitan domain, (2) the data fusion concentrations are compared with the monitor data, (3) a comprehensive cross-validation analysis against observed data evaluates the quality of the data fusion model simulations across multiple metropolitan domains. The resulting daily spatial field estimates of air pollutant concentrations and uncertainties are not only consistent with observations, emissions, and meteorology, but substantially improve CTM-derived results for nearly all pollutants and all cities, with the exception of NO2 for Birmingham. The greatest improvements occur for O3 and PM2.5. Squared spatiotemporal correlation coefficients range between simulations and observations determined using cross-validation across all cities for air pollutants of secondary and mixed origins are R2 = 0.88-0.93 (O3), 0.81-0.89 (SO4), 0.67-0.83 (PM2.5), 0.52-0.72 (NO3), 0.43-0.80 (NH4), 0.32-0.51 (OC), and 0.14-0.71 (PM10). Results for relatively homogeneous pollutants of secondary origin, tend to be better than those for more spatially heterogeneous (larger spatial gradients) pollutants of primary origin (NOx, CO, SO2 and EC). Generally, background concentrations and spatial concentration gradients reflect interurban airshed complexity and the effects of regional transport, whereas daily spatial pattern variability shows intra-urban consistency in the fused data. With sufficiently high CTM spatial resolution, traffic-related pollutants exhibit gradual concentration gradients that peak toward the urban centers. Ambient pollutant concentration uncertainty estimates for the fused data are both more accurate and smaller than those for either the observations or the model simulations alone.

Spatially-Resolved Influence of Temperature and Salinity on Stock and Recruitment Variability of Commercially Important Fishes in the North Sea

PubMed Central

Akimova, Anna; Núñez-Riboni, Ismael; Kempf, Alexander; Taylor, Marc H.

2016-01-01

Understanding of the processes affecting recruitment of commercially important fish species is one of the major challenges in fisheries science. Towards this aim, we investigated the relation between North Sea hydrography (temperature and salinity) and fish stock variables (recruitment, spawning stock biomass and pre-recruitment survival index) for 9 commercially important fishes using spatially-resolved cross-correlation analysis. We used high-resolution (0.2° × 0.2°) hydrographic data fields matching the maximal temporal extent of the fish population assessments (1948–2013). Our approach allowed for the identification of regions in the North Sea where environmental variables seem to be more influential on the fish stocks, as well as the regions of a lesser or nil influence. Our results confirmed previously demonstrated negative correlations between temperature and recruitment of cod and plaice and identified regions of the strongest correlations (German Bight for plaice and north-western North Sea for cod). We also revealed a positive correlation between herring spawning stock biomass and temperature in the Orkney-Shetland area, as well as a negative correlation between sole pre-recruitment survival index and temperature in the German Bight. A strong positive correlation between sprat stock variables and salinity in the central North Sea was also found. To our knowledge the results concerning correlations between North Sea hydrography and stocks’ dynamics of herring, sole and sprat are novel. The new information about spatial distribution of the correlation provides an additional help to identify mechanisms underlying these correlations. As an illustration of the utility of these results for fishery management, an example is provided that incorporates the identified environmental covariates in stock-recruitment models. PMID:27584155

Linear multivariate evaluation models for spatial perception of soundscape.

PubMed

Deng, Zhiyong; Kang, Jian; Wang, Daiwei; Liu, Aili; Kang, Joe Zhengyu

2015-11-01

Soundscape is a sound environment that emphasizes the awareness of auditory perception and social or cultural understandings. The case of spatial perception is significant to soundscape. However, previous studies on the auditory spatial perception of the soundscape environment have been limited. Based on 21 native binaural-recorded soundscape samples and a set of auditory experiments for subjective spatial perception (SSP), a study of the analysis among semantic parameters, the inter-aural-cross-correlation coefficient (IACC), A-weighted-equal sound-pressure-level (L(eq)), dynamic (D), and SSP is introduced to verify the independent effect of each parameter and to re-determine some of their possible relationships. The results show that the more noisiness the audience perceived, the worse spatial awareness they received, while the closer and more directional the sound source image variations, dynamics, and numbers of sound sources in the soundscape are, the better the spatial awareness would be. Thus, the sensations of roughness, sound intensity, transient dynamic, and the values of Leq and IACC have a suitable range for better spatial perception. A better spatial awareness seems to promote the preference slightly for the audience. Finally, setting SSPs as functions of the semantic parameters and Leq-D-IACC, two linear multivariate evaluation models of subjective spatial perception are proposed.

A Gaussian random field model for similarity-based smoothing in Bayesian disease mapping.

PubMed

Baptista, Helena; Mendes, Jorge M; MacNab, Ying C; Xavier, Miguel; Caldas-de-Almeida, José

2016-08-01

Conditionally specified Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) models with adjacency-based neighbourhood weight matrix, commonly known as neighbourhood-based GMRF models, have been the mainstream approach to spatial smoothing in Bayesian disease mapping. In the present paper, we propose a conditionally specified Gaussian random field (GRF) model with a similarity-based non-spatial weight matrix to facilitate non-spatial smoothing in Bayesian disease mapping. The model, named similarity-based GRF, is motivated for modelling disease mapping data in situations where the underlying small area relative risks and the associated determinant factors do not vary systematically in space, and the similarity is defined by "similarity" with respect to the associated disease determinant factors. The neighbourhood-based GMRF and the similarity-based GRF are compared and accessed via a simulation study and by two case studies, using new data on alcohol abuse in Portugal collected by the World Mental Health Survey Initiative and the well-known lip cancer data in Scotland. In the presence of disease data with no evidence of positive spatial correlation, the simulation study showed a consistent gain in efficiency from the similarity-based GRF, compared with the adjacency-based GMRF with the determinant risk factors as covariate. This new approach broadens the scope of the existing conditional autocorrelation models. © The Author(s) 2016.

Analysis of precipitation teleconnections in CMIP models as a measure of model fidelity in simulating precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J.; Meyerson, J.

2011-12-01

The accurate representation of precipitation is a recurring issue in global climate models, especially in the tropics. Poor skill in modeling the variability and climate teleconnections associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also persisted in the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) campaigns. Observed ENSO precipitation teleconnections provide a standard by which we can judge a given model's ability to reproduce precipitation and dynamic feedback processes originating in the tropical Pacific. Using CMIP3 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs as a baseline, we compare precipitation teleconnections between models and observations, and we evaluate these results against available CMIP5 historical and AMIP runs. Using AMIP simulations restricts evaluation to the atmospheric response, as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in AMIP are prescribed by observations. We use a rank correlation between ENSO SST indices and precipitation to define teleconnections, since this method is robust to outliers and appropriate for non-Gaussian data. Spatial correlations of the modeled and observed teleconnections are then evaluated. We look at these correlations in regions of strong precipitation teleconnections, including equatorial S. America, the "horseshoe" region in the western tropical Pacific, and southern N. America. For each region and season, we create a "normalized projection" of a given model's teleconnection pattern onto that of the observations, a metric that assesses the quality of regional pattern simulations while rewarding signals of correct sign over the region. Comparing this to an area-averaged (i.e., more generous) metric suggests models do better when restrictions on exact spatial dependence are loosened and conservation constraints apply. Model fidelity in regional measures remains far from perfect, suggesting intrinsic issues with the models' regional sensitivities in moist processes.

Directional semivariogram analysis to identify and rank controls on the spatial variability of fracture networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanke, John R.; Fischer, Mark P.; Pollyea, Ryan M.

2018-03-01

In this study, the directional semivariogram is deployed to investigate the spatial variability of map-scale fracture network attributes in the Paradox Basin, Utah. The relative variability ratio (R) is introduced as the ratio of integrated anisotropic semivariogram models, and R is shown to be an effective metric for quantifying the magnitude of spatial variability for any two azimuthal directions. R is applied to a GIS-based data set comprising roughly 1200 fractures, in an area which is bounded by a map-scale anticline and a km-scale normal fault. This analysis reveals that proximity to the fault strongly influences the magnitude of spatial variability for both fracture intensity and intersection density within 1-2 km. Additionally, there is significant anisotropy in the spatial variability, which is correlated with trends of the anticline and fault. The direction of minimum spatial correlation is normal to the fault at proximal distances, and gradually rotates and becomes subparallel to the fold axis over the same 1-2 km distance away from the fault. We interpret these changes to reflect varying scales of influence of the fault and the fold on fracture network development: the fault locally influences the magnitude and variability of fracture network attributes, whereas the fold sets the background level and structure of directional variability.

Spatial two-photon coherence of the entangled field produced by down-conversion using a partially spatially coherent pump beam

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jha, Anand Kumar; Boyd, Robert W.

2010-01-15

We study the spatial coherence properties of the entangled two-photon field produced by parametric down-conversion (PDC) when the pump field is, spatially, a partially coherent beam. By explicitly treating the case of a pump beam of the Gaussian Schell-model type, we show that in PDC the spatial coherence properties of the pump field get entirely transferred to the spatial coherence properties of the down-converted two-photon field. As one important consequence of this study, we find that, for two-qubit states based on the position correlations of the two-photon field, the maximum achievable entanglement, as quantified by concurrence, is bounded by themore » degree of spatial coherence of the pump field. These results could be important by providing a means of controlling the entanglement of down-converted photons by tailoring the degree of coherence of the pump field.« less

The joint space-time statistics of macroweather precipitation, space-time statistical factorization and macroweather models.

PubMed

Lovejoy, S; de Lima, M I P

2015-07-01

Over the range of time scales from about 10 days to 30-100 years, in addition to the familiar weather and climate regimes, there is an intermediate "macroweather" regime characterized by negative temporal fluctuation exponents: implying that fluctuations tend to cancel each other out so that averages tend to converge. We show theoretically and numerically that macroweather precipitation can be modeled by a stochastic weather-climate model (the Climate Extended Fractionally Integrated Flux, model, CEFIF) first proposed for macroweather temperatures and we show numerically that a four parameter space-time CEFIF model can approximately reproduce eight or so empirical space-time exponents. In spite of this success, CEFIF is theoretically and numerically difficult to manage. We therefore propose a simplified stochastic model in which the temporal behavior is modeled as a fractional Gaussian noise but the spatial behaviour as a multifractal (climate) cascade: a spatial extension of the recently introduced ScaLIng Macroweather Model, SLIMM. Both the CEFIF and this spatial SLIMM model have a property often implicitly assumed by climatologists that climate statistics can be "homogenized" by normalizing them with the standard deviation of the anomalies. Physically, it means that the spatial macroweather variability corresponds to different climate zones that multiplicatively modulate the local, temporal statistics. This simplified macroweather model provides a framework for macroweather forecasting that exploits the system's long range memory and spatial correlations; for it, the forecasting problem has been solved. We test this factorization property and the model with the help of three centennial, global scale precipitation products that we analyze jointly in space and in time.

Perception and psychological evaluation for visual and auditory environment based on the correlation mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujii, Kenji

2002-06-01

In this dissertation, the correlation mechanism in modeling the process in the visual perception is introduced. It has been well described that the correlation mechanism is effective for describing subjective attributes in auditory perception. The main result is that it is possible to apply the correlation mechanism to the process in temporal vision and spatial vision, as well as in audition. (1) The psychophysical experiment was performed on subjective flicker rates for complex waveforms. A remarkable result is that the phenomenon of missing fundamental is found in temporal vision as analogous to the auditory pitch perception. This implies the existence of correlation mechanism in visual system. (2) For spatial vision, the autocorrelation analysis provides useful measures for describing three primary perceptual properties of visual texture: contrast, coarseness, and regularity. Another experiment showed that the degree of regularity is a salient cue for texture preference judgment. (3) In addition, the autocorrelation function (ACF) and inter-aural cross-correlation function (IACF) were applied for analysis of the temporal and spatial properties of environmental noise. It was confirmed that the acoustical properties of aircraft noise and traffic noise are well described. These analyses provided useful parameters extracted from the ACF and IACF in assessing the subjective annoyance for noise. Thesis advisor: Yoichi Ando Copies of this thesis written in English can be obtained from Junko Atagi, 6813 Mosonou, Saijo-cho, Higashi-Hiroshima 739-0024, Japan. E-mail address: atagi\\@urban.ne.jp.

Estimation of exposure to atmospheric pollutants during pregnancy integrating space-time activity and indoor air levels: does it make a difference?

PubMed Central

Marion, OUIDIR; Lise, GIORGIS-ALLEMAND; Sarah, LYON-CAEN; Xavier, MORELLI; Claire, CRACOWSKI; Sabrina, PONTET; Isabelle, PIN; Johanna, LEPEULE; Valérie, SIROUX; Rémy, SLAMA

2016-01-01

Studies of air pollution effects during pregnancy generally only consider exposure in the outdoor air at the home address. We aimed to compare exposure models differing in their ability to account for the spatial resolution of pollutants, space-time activity and indoor air pollution levels. We recruited 40 pregnant women in the Grenoble urban area, France, who carried a Global Positioning System (GPS) during up to 3 weeks; in a subgroup, indoor measurements of fine particles (PM2.5) were conducted at home (n=9) and personal exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was assessed using passive air samplers (n=10). Outdoor concentrations of NO2, and PM2.5 were estimated from a dispersion model with a fine spatial resolution. Women spent on average 16 h per day at home. Considering only outdoor levels, for estimates at the home address, the correlation between the estimate using the nearest background air monitoring station and the estimate from the dispersion model was high (r=0.93) for PM2.5 and moderate (r=0.67) for NO2. The model incorporating clean GPS data was less correlated with the estimate relying on raw GPS data (r=0.77) than the model ignoring space-time activity (r=0.93). PM2.5 outdoor levels were not to moderately correlated with estimates from the model incorporating indoor measurements and space-time activity (r=−0.10 to 0.47), while NO2 personal levels were not correlated with outdoor levels (r=−0.42 to 0.03). In this urban area, accounting for space-time activity little influenced exposure estimates; in a subgroup of subjects (n=9), incorporating indoor pollution levels seemed to strongly modify them. PMID:26300245

A Discrete Fracture Network Model with Stress-Driven Nucleation and Growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavoine, E.; Darcel, C.; Munier, R.; Davy, P.

2017-12-01

The realism of Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) models, beyond the bulk statistical properties, relies on the spatial organization of fractures, which is not issued by purely stochastic DFN models. The realism can be improved by injecting prior information in DFN from a better knowledge of the geological fracturing processes. We first develop a model using simple kinematic rules for mimicking the growth of fractures from nucleation to arrest, in order to evaluate the consequences of the DFN structure on the network connectivity and flow properties. The model generates fracture networks with power-law scaling distributions and a percentage of T-intersections that are consistent with field observations. Nevertheless, a larger complexity relying on the spatial variability of natural fractures positions cannot be explained by the random nucleation process. We propose to introduce a stress-driven nucleation in the timewise process of this kinematic model to study the correlations between nucleation, growth and existing fracture patterns. The method uses the stress field generated by existing fractures and remote stress as an input for a Monte-Carlo sampling of nuclei centers at each time step. Networks so generated are found to have correlations over a large range of scales, with a correlation dimension that varies with time and with the function that relates the nucleation probability to stress. A sensibility analysis of input parameters has been performed in 3D to quantify the influence of fractures and remote stress field orientations.

Predicting space telerobotic operator training performance from human spatial ability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Andrew M.; Oman, Charles M.; Galvan, Raquel; Natapoff, Alan

2013-11-01

Our goal was to determine whether existing tests of spatial ability can predict an astronaut's qualification test performance after robotic training. Because training astronauts to be qualified robotics operators is so long and expensive, NASA is interested in tools that can predict robotics performance before training begins. Currently, the Astronaut Office does not have a validated tool to predict robotics ability as part of its astronaut selection or training process. Commonly used tests of human spatial ability may provide such a tool to predict robotics ability. We tested the spatial ability of 50 active astronauts who had completed at least one robotics training course, then used logistic regression models to analyze the correlation between spatial ability test scores and the astronauts' performance in their evaluation test at the end of the training course. The fit of the logistic function to our data is statistically significant for several spatial tests. However, the prediction performance of the logistic model depends on the criterion threshold assumed. To clarify the critical selection issues, we show how the probability of correct classification vs. misclassification varies as a function of the mental rotation test criterion level. Since the costs of misclassification are low, the logistic models of spatial ability and robotic performance are reliable enough only to be used to customize regular and remedial training. We suggest several changes in tracking performance throughout robotics training that could improve the range and reliability of predictive models.

Optimization of Decision-Making for Spatial Sampling in the North China Plain, Based on Remote-Sensing a Priori Knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, J.; Bai, L.; Liu, S.; Su, X.; Hu, H.

2012-07-01

In this paper, the MODIS remote sensing data, featured with low-cost, high-timely and moderate/low spatial resolutions, in the North China Plain (NCP) as a study region were firstly used to carry out mixed-pixel spectral decomposition to extract an useful regionalized indicator parameter (RIP) (i.e., an available ratio, that is, fraction/percentage, of winter wheat planting area in each pixel as a regionalized indicator variable (RIV) of spatial sampling) from the initial selected indicators. Then, the RIV values were spatially analyzed, and the spatial structure characteristics (i.e., spatial correlation and variation) of the NCP were achieved, which were further processed to obtain the scalefitting, valid a priori knowledge or information of spatial sampling. Subsequently, founded upon an idea of rationally integrating probability-based and model-based sampling techniques and effectively utilizing the obtained a priori knowledge or information, the spatial sampling models and design schemes and their optimization and optimal selection were developed, as is a scientific basis of improving and optimizing the existing spatial sampling schemes of large-scale cropland remote sensing monitoring. Additionally, by the adaptive analysis and decision strategy the optimal local spatial prediction and gridded system of extrapolation results were able to excellently implement an adaptive report pattern of spatial sampling in accordance with report-covering units in order to satisfy the actual needs of sampling surveys.

Confronting Standard Models of Proto-planetary Disks with New Mid-infrared Sizes from the Keck Interferometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millan-Gabet, Rafael; Che, Xiao; Monnier, John D.; Sitko, Michael L.; Russell, Ray W.; Grady, Carol A.; Day, Amanda N.; Perry, R. B.; Harries, Tim J.; Aarnio, Alicia N.; Colavita, Mark M.; Wizinowich, Peter L.; Ragland, Sam; Woillez, Julien

2016-08-01

We present near- and mid-infrared (MIR) interferometric observations made with the Keck Interferometer Nuller and near-contemporaneous spectro-photometry from the infrared telescope facilities (IRTFs) of 11 well-known young stellar objects, several of which were observed for the first time in these spectral and spatial resolution regimes. With au-level spatial resolution, we first establish characteristic sizes of the infrared emission using a simple geometrical model consisting of a hot inner rim and MIR disk emission. We find a high degree of correlation between the stellar luminosity and the MIR disk sizes after using near-infrared data to remove the contribution from the inner rim. We then use a semi-analytical physical model to also find that the very widely used “star + inner dust rim + flared disk” class of models strongly fails to reproduce the spectral energy distribution (SED) and spatially resolved MIR data simultaneously; specifically a more compact source of MIR emission is required than results from the standard flared disk model. We explore the viability of a modification to the model whereby a second dust rim containing smaller dust grains is added, and find that the 2-rim model leads to significantly improved fits in most cases. This complexity is largely missed when carrying out SED modeling alone, although detailed silicate feature fitting by McClure et al. recently came to a similar conclusion. As has been suggested recently by Menu et al., the difficulty in predicting MIR sizes from the SED alone might hint at “transition disk”-like gaps in the inner au; however, the relatively high correlation found in our MIR disk size versus stellar luminosity relation favors layered disk morphologies and points to missing disk model ingredients instead.

CONFRONTING STANDARD MODELS OF PROTO-PLANETARY DISKS WITH NEW MID-INFRARED SIZES FROM THE KECK INTERFEROMETER

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Millan-Gabet, Rafael; Che, Xiao; Monnier, John D.

We present near- and mid-infrared (MIR) interferometric observations made with the Keck Interferometer Nuller and near-contemporaneous spectro-photometry from the infrared telescope facilities (IRTFs) of 11 well-known young stellar objects, several of which were observed for the first time in these spectral and spatial resolution regimes. With au-level spatial resolution, we first establish characteristic sizes of the infrared emission using a simple geometrical model consisting of a hot inner rim and MIR disk emission. We find a high degree of correlation between the stellar luminosity and the MIR disk sizes after using near-infrared data to remove the contribution from the innermore » rim. We then use a semi-analytical physical model to also find that the very widely used “star + inner dust rim + flared disk” class of models strongly fails to reproduce the spectral energy distribution (SED) and spatially resolved MIR data simultaneously; specifically a more compact source of MIR emission is required than results from the standard flared disk model. We explore the viability of a modification to the model whereby a second dust rim containing smaller dust grains is added, and find that the 2-rim model leads to significantly improved fits in most cases. This complexity is largely missed when carrying out SED modeling alone, although detailed silicate feature fitting by McClure et al. recently came to a similar conclusion. As has been suggested recently by Menu et al., the difficulty in predicting MIR sizes from the SED alone might hint at “transition disk”-like gaps in the inner au; however, the relatively high correlation found in our MIR disk size versus stellar luminosity relation favors layered disk morphologies and points to missing disk model ingredients instead.« less

The Impact of Strong Climate Change on Inter-state Balancing in a Fully-renewable Simplified European Electricity System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wohland, Jan; Witthaut, Dirk

2017-04-01

Electricity systems with a high penetration of renewables are strongly affected by weather patterns. Due to the variability of the climate system, a substantial fraction of energy supply needs to be provided by dispatchable power plants even if the consumption is on average balanced by renewables (e.g. Rodriguez et al. [2014]). In an interconnected system like the European electricity grid, benefits can arise from balancing generation mismatches spatially as long as overproduction in one region coincides with lack of generation in another region. These benefits might change as the climate changes and we thus investigate alterations of correlations between wind timeseries and Backup energy requirements. Our analysis is based on a five member model-ensemble from the EUROCORDEX initiative and we focus on onshore wind energy. We use the highest temporal (3h) and spatial (0.11°) resolution available to capture the intermittent and spatially diverse nature of renewable generation. In view of inter-model spread and other uncertainties, we use the strong climate change scenario rcp8.5 in order to obtain a high signal-to-noise ratio. We argue that rcp8.5 is best suited to reveal interesting interactions between climate change and renewable electricity system despite the fact that is in contradiction to the UNFCCC temperature goals (e.g. Schleussner et al. [2016]). We report spatially inhomogeneous alterations of correlations. In particular, we find increasing correlations between central and northern European states and decreasing correlations at the south-western and south-eastern margins of Europe. This hints to a lowering of balancing potentials within central and northern Europe due to climate change. A possible explanation might be associated to polar amplification and increasing frequencies of blocking events (Coumou [2015]). Moreover, we compute wind energy generation using a single-turbine model and a semi-random deployment procedure as developed in Monforti et al. [2016]. In combination with ENTSO-E load data and validated solar generation timeseries from Renewable Ninja (Pfenninger and Staffell [2016]), we calculate backup energy needs in Europe and analyze the potential of cooperation between countries to lower them. We find increases in European backup energy needs throughout the 21st century which are robust across the 5 climate models considered.

A comparison of adaptive sampling designs and binary spatial models: A simulation study using a census of Bromus inermis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irvine, Kathryn M.; Thornton, Jamie; Backus, Vickie M.; Hohmann, Matthew G.; Lehnhoff, Erik A.; Maxwell, Bruce D.; Michels, Kurt; Rew, Lisa

2013-01-01

Commonly in environmental and ecological studies, species distribution data are recorded as presence or absence throughout a spatial domain of interest. Field based studies typically collect observations by sampling a subset of the spatial domain. We consider the effects of six different adaptive and two non-adaptive sampling designs and choice of three binary models on both predictions to unsampled locations and parameter estimation of the regression coefficients (species–environment relationships). Our simulation study is unique compared to others to date in that we virtually sample a true known spatial distribution of a nonindigenous plant species, Bromus inermis. The census of B. inermis provides a good example of a species distribution that is both sparsely (1.9 % prevalence) and patchily distributed. We find that modeling the spatial correlation using a random effect with an intrinsic Gaussian conditionally autoregressive prior distribution was equivalent or superior to Bayesian autologistic regression in terms of predicting to un-sampled areas when strip adaptive cluster sampling was used to survey B. inermis. However, inferences about the relationships between B. inermis presence and environmental predictors differed between the two spatial binary models. The strip adaptive cluster designs we investigate provided a significant advantage in terms of Markov chain Monte Carlo chain convergence when trying to model a sparsely distributed species across a large area. In general, there was little difference in the choice of neighborhood, although the adaptive king was preferred when transects were randomly placed throughout the spatial domain.

Development of a local size hierarchy causes regular spacing of trees in an even-aged Abies forest: analyses using spatial autocorrelation and the mark correlation function.

PubMed

Suzuki, Satoshi N; Kachi, Naoki; Suzuki, Jun-Ichirou

2008-09-01

During the development of an even-aged plant population, the spatial distribution of individuals often changes from a clumped pattern to a random or regular one. The development of local size hierarchies in an Abies forest was analysed for a period of 47 years following a large disturbance in 1959. In 1980 all trees in an 8 x 8 m plot were mapped and their height growth after the disturbance was estimated. Their mortality and growth were then recorded at 1- to 4-year intervals between 1980 and 2006. Spatial distribution patterns of trees were analysed by the pair correlation function. Spatial correlations between tree heights were analysed with a spatial autocorrelation function and the mark correlation function. The mark correlation function was able to detect a local size hierarchy that could not be detected by the spatial autocorrelation function alone. The small-scale spatial distribution pattern of trees changed from clumped to slightly regular during the 47 years. Mortality occurred in a density-dependent manner, which resulted in regular spacing between trees after 1980. The spatial autocorrelation and mark correlation functions revealed the existence of tree patches consisting of large trees at the initial stage. Development of a local size hierarchy was detected within the first decade after the disturbance, although the spatial autocorrelation was not negative. Local size hierarchies that developed persisted until 2006, and the spatial autocorrelation became negative at later stages (after about 40 years). This is the first study to detect local size hierarchies as a prelude to regular spacing using the mark correlation function. The results confirm that use of the mark correlation function together with the spatial autocorrelation function is an effective tool to analyse the development of a local size hierarchy of trees in a forest.

GSTARI model of BPR assets in West Java, Central Java, and East Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susanti, Susi; Sulistijowati Handajani, Sri; Indriati, Diari

2018-05-01

Bank Perkreditan Rakyat (BPR) is a financial institution in Indonesia dealing with Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). Though limited to MSMEs, the development of the BPR industry continues to increase. West Java, Central Java, and East Java have high BPR asset development are suspected to be interconnected because of their economic activities as a neighboring provincies. BPR assets are nonstationary time series data that follow the uptrend pattern. Therefore, the suitable model with the data is generalized space time autoregressive integrated (GSTARI) which considers the spatial and time interrelationships. GSTARI model used spatial order 1 and the autoregressive order is obtained of optimal lag which has the smallest value of Akaike information criterion corrected. The correlation test results showed that the location used in this study had a close relationship. Based on the results of model identification, the best model obtained is GSTAR(31)-I(1). The parameter estimation used the ordinary least squares with the selection of significant variables used the stepwise method and the normalization cross correlation weighting. The residual model fulfilled the assumption of white noise and normal multivariate, so the model was appropriate. The average RMSE and MAPE values of the model were 498.75 and 2.48%.

Fire in the Brazilian Amazon: A Spatially Explicit Model for Policy Impact Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arima, Eugenio Y.; Simmons, Cynthia S.; Walker, Robert T.; Cochrane, Mark A.

2007-01-01

This article implements a spatially explicit model to estimate the probability of forest and agricultural fires in the Brazilian Amazon. We innovate by using variables that reflect farmgate prices of beef and soy, and also provide a conceptual model of managed and unmanaged fires in order to simulate the impact of road paving, cattle exports, and conservation area designation on the occurrence of fire. Our analysis shows that fire is positively correlated with the price of beef and soy, and that the creation of new conservation units may offset the negative environmental impacts caused by the increasing number of fire events associated with early stages of frontier development.

Inversion of multi-frequency electromagnetic induction data for 3D characterization of hydraulic conductivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brosten, Troy R.; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Schultz, Gregory M.; Curtis, Gary P.; Lane, John W.

2011-01-01

Electromagnetic induction (EMI) instruments provide rapid, noninvasive, and spatially dense data for characterization of soil and groundwater properties. Data from multi-frequency EMI tools can be inverted to provide quantitative electrical conductivity estimates as a function of depth. In this study, multi-frequency EMI data collected across an abandoned uranium mill site near Naturita, Colorado, USA, are inverted to produce vertical distribution of electrical conductivity (EC) across the site. The relation between measured apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) and hydraulic conductivity (K) is weak (correlation coefficient of 0.20), whereas the correlation between the depth dependent EC obtained from the inversions, and K is sufficiently strong to be used for hydrologic estimation (correlation coefficient of − 0.62). Depth-specific EC values were correlated with co-located K measurements to develop a site-specific ln(EC)–ln(K) relation. This petrophysical relation was applied to produce a spatially detailed map of K across the study area. A synthetic example based on ECa values at the site was used to assess model resolution and correlation loss given variations in depth and/or measurement error. Results from synthetic modeling indicate that optimum correlation with K occurs at ~ 0.5 m followed by a gradual correlation loss of 90% at 2.3 m. These results are consistent with an analysis of depth of investigation (DOI) given the range of frequencies, transmitter–receiver separation, and measurement errors for the field data. DOIs were estimated at 2.0 ± 0.5 m depending on the soil conductivities. A 4-layer model, with varying thicknesses, was used to invert the ECa to maximize available information within the aquifer region for improved correlations with K. Results show improved correlation between K and the corresponding inverted EC at similar depths, underscoring the importance of inversion in using multi-frequency EMI data for hydrologic estimation.

Inversion of multi-frequency electromagnetic induction data for 3D characterization of hydraulic conductivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brosten, T.R.; Day-Lewis, F. D.; Schultz, G.M.; Curtis, G.P.; Lane, J.W.

2011-01-01

Electromagnetic induction (EMI) instruments provide rapid, noninvasive, and spatially dense data for characterization of soil and groundwater properties. Data from multi-frequency EMI tools can be inverted to provide quantitative electrical conductivity estimates as a function of depth. In this study, multi-frequency EMI data collected across an abandoned uranium mill site near Naturita, Colorado, USA, are inverted to produce vertical distribution of electrical conductivity (EC) across the site. The relation between measured apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) and hydraulic conductivity (K) is weak (correlation coefficient of 0.20), whereas the correlation between the depth dependent EC obtained from the inversions, and K is sufficiently strong to be used for hydrologic estimation (correlation coefficient of -0.62). Depth-specific EC values were correlated with co-located K measurements to develop a site-specific ln(EC)-ln(K) relation. This petrophysical relation was applied to produce a spatially detailed map of K across the study area. A synthetic example based on ECa values at the site was used to assess model resolution and correlation loss given variations in depth and/or measurement error. Results from synthetic modeling indicate that optimum correlation with K occurs at ~0.5m followed by a gradual correlation loss of 90% at 2.3m. These results are consistent with an analysis of depth of investigation (DOI) given the range of frequencies, transmitter-receiver separation, and measurement errors for the field data. DOIs were estimated at 2.0??0.5m depending on the soil conductivities. A 4-layer model, with varying thicknesses, was used to invert the ECa to maximize available information within the aquifer region for improved correlations with K. Results show improved correlation between K and the corresponding inverted EC at similar depths, underscoring the importance of inversion in using multi-frequency EMI data for hydrologic estimation. ?? 2011.

Robust Encoding of Spatial Information in Orbitofrontal Cortex and Striatum.

PubMed

Yoo, Seng Bum Michael; Sleezer, Brianna J; Hayden, Benjamin Y

2018-06-01

Knowing whether core reward regions carry information about the positions of relevant objects is crucial for adjudicating between choice models. One limitation of previous studies, including our own, is that spatial positions can be consistently differentially associated with rewards, and thus position can be confounded with attention, motor plans, or target identity. We circumvented these problems by using a task in which value-and thus choices-was determined solely by a frequently changing rule, which was randomized relative to spatial position on each trial. We presented offers asynchronously, which allowed us to control for reward expectation, spatial attention, and motor plans in our analyses. We find robust encoding of the spatial position of both offers and choices in two core reward regions, orbitofrontal Area 13 and ventral striatum, as well as in dorsal striatum of macaques. The trial-by-trial correlation in noise in encoding of position was associated with variation in choice, an effect known as choice probability correlation, suggesting that the spatial encoding is associated with choice and is not incidental to it. Spatial information and reward information are not carried by separate sets of neurons, although the two forms of information are temporally dissociable. These results highlight the ubiquity of multiplexed information in association cortex and argue against the idea that these ostensible reward regions serve as part of a pure value domain.

Ergodic channel capacity of spatial correlated multiple-input multiple-output free space optical links using multipulse pulse-position modulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huiqin; Wang, Xue; Cao, Minghua

2017-02-01

The spatial correlation extensively exists in the multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) free space optical (FSO) communication systems due to the channel fading and the antenna space limitation. Wilkinson's method was utilized to investigate the impact of spatial correlation on the MIMO FSO communication system employing multipulse pulse-position modulation. Simulation results show that the existence of spatial correlation reduces the ergodic channel capacity, and the reception diversity is more competent to resist this kind of performance degradation.

Soil variability in engineering applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vessia, Giovanna

2014-05-01

Natural geomaterials, as soils and rocks, show spatial variability and heterogeneity of physical and mechanical properties. They can be measured by in field and laboratory testing. The heterogeneity concerns different values of litho-technical parameters pertaining similar lithological units placed close to each other. On the contrary, the variability is inherent to the formation and evolution processes experienced by each geological units (homogeneous geomaterials on average) and captured as a spatial structure of fluctuation of physical property values about their mean trend, e.g. the unit weight, the hydraulic permeability, the friction angle, the cohesion, among others. The preceding spatial variations shall be managed by engineering models to accomplish reliable designing of structures and infrastructures. Materon (1962) introduced the Geostatistics as the most comprehensive tool to manage spatial correlation of parameter measures used in a wide range of earth science applications. In the field of the engineering geology, Vanmarcke (1977) developed the first pioneering attempts to describe and manage the inherent variability in geomaterials although Terzaghi (1943) already highlighted that spatial fluctuations of physical and mechanical parameters used in geotechnical designing cannot be neglected. A few years later, Mandelbrot (1983) and Turcotte (1986) interpreted the internal arrangement of geomaterial according to Fractal Theory. In the same years, Vanmarcke (1983) proposed the Random Field Theory providing mathematical tools to deal with inherent variability of each geological units or stratigraphic succession that can be resembled as one material. In this approach, measurement fluctuations of physical parameters are interpreted through the spatial variability structure consisting in the correlation function and the scale of fluctuation. Fenton and Griffiths (1992) combined random field simulation with the finite element method to produce the Random Finite Element Method (RFEM). This method has been used to investigate the random behavior of soils in the context of a variety of classical geotechnical problems. Afterward, some following studies collected the worldwide variability values of many technical parameters of soils (Phoon and Kulhawy 1999a) and their spatial correlation functions (Phoon and Kulhawy 1999b). In Italy, Cherubini et al. (2007) calculated the spatial variability structure of sandy and clayey soils from the standard cone penetration test readings. The large extent of the worldwide measured spatial variability of soils and rocks heavily affects the reliability of geotechnical designing as well as other uncertainties introduced by testing devices and engineering models. So far, several methods have been provided to deal with the preceding sources of uncertainties in engineering designing models (e.g. First Order Reliability Method, Second Order Reliability Method, Response Surface Method, High Dimensional Model Representation, etc.). Nowadays, the efforts in this field have been focusing on (1) measuring spatial variability of different rocks and soils and (2) developing numerical models that take into account the spatial variability as additional physical variable. References Cherubini C., Vessia G. and Pula W. 2007. Statistical soil characterization of Italian sites for reliability analyses. Proc. 2nd Int. Workshop. on Characterization and Engineering Properties of Natural Soils, 3-4: 2681-2706. Griffiths D.V. and Fenton G.A. 1993. Seepage beneath water retaining structures founded on spatially random soil, Géotechnique, 43(6): 577-587. Mandelbrot B.B. 1983. The Fractal Geometry of Nature. San Francisco: W H Freeman. Matheron G. 1962. Traité de Géostatistique appliquée. Tome 1, Editions Technip, Paris, 334 p. Phoon K.K. and Kulhawy F.H. 1999a. Characterization of geotechnical variability. Can Geotech J, 36(4): 612-624. Phoon K.K. and Kulhawy F.H. 1999b. Evaluation of geotechnical property variability. Can Geotech J, 36(4): 625-639. Terzaghi K. 1943. Theoretical Soil Mechanics. New York: John Wiley and Sons. Turcotte D.L. 1986. Fractals and fragmentation. J Geophys Res, 91: 1921-1926. Vanmarcke E.H. 1977. Probabilistic modeling of soil profiles. J Geotech Eng Div, ASCE, 103: 1227-1246. Vanmarcke E.H. 1983. Random fields: analysis and synthesis. MIT Press, Cambridge.

Reconstruction of a Three Hourly 1-km Land Surface Air Temperature Dataset in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, J.; Ding, L.

2017-12-01

Land surface air temperature (SAT) is an important parameter in the modeling of radiation balance and energy budget of the earth surface. Generally, SAT is measured at ground meteorological stations; then SAT mapping is possible though a spatial interpolation process. The interpolated SAT map relies on the spatial distribution of ground stations, the terrain, and many other factors; thus, it has great uncertainties in regions with complicated terrain. Instead, SAT map can also be obtained through physical modeling of interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere. Such dataset generally has coarse spatial resolution (e.g. coarser than 0.1°) and cannot satisfy the applications at fine scales, e.g. 1 km. This presentation reports the reconstruction of a three hourly 1-km SAT dataset from 2001 to 2015 over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The terrain in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, especially in the eastern part, is extremely complicated. Two SAT datasets with good qualities are used in this study. The first one is from the 3h China Meteorological Forcing Dataset with a 0.1° resolution released by the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Yang et al., 2010); the second one is from the ERA-Interim product with the same temporal resolution and a 0.125° resolution. A statistical approach is developed to downscale the spatial resolution of the derived SAT to 1-km. The elevation and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are selected as two scaling factors in the downscaling approach. Results demonstrate there is significantly negative correlation between the SAT and elevation in all seasons; there is also significantly negative correlation between the SAT and NDVI in the vegetation growth seasons, while the correlation decreases in the other seasons. Therefore, a temporally dynamic downscaling approach is feasible to enhance the spatial resolution of the SAT. Compared with the SAT at the 0.1° or 0.125°, the reconstructed 1-km SAT can provide much more spatial details in areas with complicated terrain. Additionally, the 1-km SAT agrees well with the ground measured air temperatures as well as the SAT before downscaling. The reconstructed SAT will be beneficial for the modeling of surface radiation balance and energy budget over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

[Spatial variation of soil phosphorus in flooded area of the Yellow River based on GIS and geo-statistical methods: A case study in Zhoukou City, Henan, China.

PubMed

Jia, Zhen Yu; Zhang, Jun Hua; Ding, Sheng Yan; Feng, Shu; Xiong, Xiao Bo; Liang, Guo Fu

2016-04-22

Soil phosphorus is an important indicator to measure the soil fertility, because the content of soil phosphorus has an important effect on physical and chemical properties of soil, plant growth, and microbial activity in soil. In this study, the soil samples collecting and indoor analysis were conducted in Zhoukou City located in the flooded area of the Yellow River. By using GIS combined with geo-statistics, we tried to analyze the spatial variability and content distribution of soil total phosphorus (TP) and soil available phosphorus (AP) in the study area. Results showed that TP and AP of both soil layers (0-20 cm and 20-40 cm) were rich, and the contents of TP and AP in surface layer (0-20 cm) were higher than in the second layer (20-40 cm). TP and AP of both soil layers exhibited variation at medium level, and AP had varied much higher than TP. TP of both layers showed medium degree of anisotropy which could be well modeled by the Gaussian model. TP in the surface layer showed strong spatial correlation, but that of the second layer had medium spatial correlation. AP of both layers had a weaker scope in anisotropy which could be simulated by linear model, and both soil layers showed weaker spatial correlations. TP of both soil layers showed a slowly rising change from southwest to northeast of the study area, while it gradually declined from northwest to southeast. AP in soil surface layer exhibited an increase tendency firstly and then decrease from southwest to the northeast, while it decreased firstly and then increased from southeast to the northwest. AP in the second soil layer had an opposite change in the southwest to the northeast, while it showed continuously increasing tendency from northwest to the southeast. The contents of TP and AP in the surface layer presented high grades and the second layer of TP belonged to medium grade, but the second layer of AP was in a lower grade. The artificial factors such as land use type, cropping system, irrigation and fertilization were the main factors influencing the distribution and spatial variation of soil phosphorus in this area.

[Temporal and spatial heterogeneity analysis of optimal value of sensitive parameters in ecological process model: The BIOME-BGC model as an example.

PubMed

Li, Yi Zhe; Zhang, Ting Long; Liu, Qiu Yu; Li, Ying

2018-01-01

The ecological process models are powerful tools for studying terrestrial ecosystem water and carbon cycle at present. However, there are many parameters for these models, and weather the reasonable values of these parameters were taken, have important impact on the models simulation results. In the past, the sensitivity and the optimization of model parameters were analyzed and discussed in many researches. But the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal parameters is less concerned. In this paper, the BIOME-BGC model was used as an example. In the evergreen broad-leaved forest, deciduous broad-leaved forest and C3 grassland, the sensitive parameters of the model were selected by constructing the sensitivity judgment index with two experimental sites selected under each vegetation type. The objective function was constructed by using the simulated annealing algorithm combined with the flux data to obtain the monthly optimal values of the sensitive parameters at each site. Then we constructed the temporal heterogeneity judgment index, the spatial heterogeneity judgment index and the temporal and spatial heterogeneity judgment index to quantitatively analyze the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal values of the model sensitive parameters. The results showed that the sensitivity of BIOME-BGC model parameters was different under different vegetation types, but the selected sensitive parameters were mostly consistent. The optimal values of the sensitive parameters of BIOME-BGC model mostly presented time-space heterogeneity to different degrees which varied with vegetation types. The sensitive parameters related to vegetation physiology and ecology had relatively little temporal and spatial heterogeneity while those related to environment and phenology had generally larger temporal and spatial heterogeneity. In addition, the temporal heterogeneity of the optimal values of the model sensitive parameters showed a significant linear correlation with the spatial heterogeneity under the three vegetation types. According to the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal values, the parameters of the BIOME-BGC model could be classified in order to adopt different parameter strategies in practical application. The conclusion could help to deeply understand the parameters and the optimal values of the ecological process models, and provide a way or reference for obtaining the reasonable values of parameters in models application.

The cluster-cluster correlation function. [of galaxies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Postman, M.; Geller, M. J.; Huchra, J. P.

1986-01-01

The clustering properties of the Abell and Zwicky cluster catalogs are studied using the two-point angular and spatial correlation functions. The catalogs are divided into eight subsamples to determine the dependence of the correlation function on distance, richness, and the method of cluster identification. It is found that the Corona Borealis supercluster contributes significant power to the spatial correlation function to the Abell cluster sample with distance class of four or less. The distance-limited catalog of 152 Abell clusters, which is not greatly affected by a single system, has a spatial correlation function consistent with the power law Xi(r) = 300r exp -1.8. In both the distance class four or less and distance-limited samples the signal in the spatial correlation function is a power law detectable out to 60/h Mpc. The amplitude of Xi(r) for clusters of richness class two is about three times that for richness class one clusters. The two-point spatial correlation function is sensitive to the use of estimated redshifts.

Hierarchical drivers of reef-fish metacommunity structure.

PubMed

MacNeil, M Aaron; Graham, Nicholas A J; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Kulbicki, Michel; Galzin, René; Harmelin-Vivien, Mireille; Rushton, Steven P

2009-01-01

Coral reefs are highly complex ecological systems, where multiple processes interact across scales in space and time to create assemblages of exceptionally high biodiversity. Despite the increasing frequency of hierarchically structured sampling programs used in coral-reef science, little progress has been made in quantifying the relative importance of processes operating across multiple scales. The vast majority of reef studies are conducted, or at least analyzed, at a single spatial scale, ignoring the implicitly hierarchical structure of the overall system in favor of small-scale experiments or large-scale observations. Here we demonstrate how alpha (mean local number of species), beta diversity (degree of species dissimilarity among local sites), and gamma diversity (overall species richness) vary with spatial scale, and using a hierarchical, information-theoretic approach, we evaluate the relative importance of site-, reef-, and atoll-level processes driving the fish metacommunity structure among 10 atolls in French Polynesia. Process-based models, representing well-established hypotheses about drivers of reef-fish community structure, were assembled into a candidate set of 12 hierarchical linear models. Variation in fish abundance, biomass, and species richness were unevenly distributed among transect, reef, and atoll levels, establishing the relative contribution of variation at these spatial scales to the structure of the metacommunity. Reef-fish biomass, species richness, and the abundance of most functional-groups corresponded primarily with transect-level habitat diversity and atoll-lagoon size, whereas detritivore and grazer abundances were largely correlated with potential covariates of larval dispersal. Our findings show that (1) within-transect and among-atoll factors primarily drive the relationship between alpha and gamma diversity in this reef-fish metacommunity; (2) habitat is the primary correlate with reef-fish metacommunity structure at multiple spatial scales; and (3) inter-atoll connectedness was poorly correlated with the nonrandom clustering of reef-fish species. These results demonstrate the importance of modeling hierarchical data and processes in understanding reef-fish metacommunity structure.

Elucidation of spin echo small angle neutron scattering correlation functions through model studies.

PubMed

Shew, Chwen-Yang; Chen, Wei-Ren

2012-02-14

Several single-modal Debye correlation functions to approximate part of the overall Debey correlation function of liquids are closely examined for elucidating their behavior in the corresponding spin echo small angle neutron scattering (SESANS) correlation functions. We find that the maximum length scale of a Debye correlation function is identical to that of its SESANS correlation function. For discrete Debye correlation functions, the peak of SESANS correlation function emerges at their first discrete point, whereas for continuous Debye correlation functions with greater width, the peak position shifts to a greater value. In both cases, the intensity and shape of the peak of the SESANS correlation function are determined by the width of the Debye correlation functions. Furthermore, we mimic the intramolecular and intermolecular Debye correlation functions of liquids composed of interacting particles based on a simple model to elucidate their competition in the SESANS correlation function. Our calculations show that the first local minimum of a SESANS correlation function can be negative and positive. By adjusting the spatial distribution of the intermolecular Debye function in the model, the calculated SESANS spectra exhibit the profile consistent with that of hard-sphere and sticky-hard-sphere liquids predicted by more sophisticated liquid state theory and computer simulation. © 2012 American Institute of Physics

Spatial Learning and Action Planning in a Prefrontal Cortical Network Model

PubMed Central

Martinet, Louis-Emmanuel; Sheynikhovich, Denis; Benchenane, Karim; Arleo, Angelo

2011-01-01

The interplay between hippocampus and prefrontal cortex (PFC) is fundamental to spatial cognition. Complementing hippocampal place coding, prefrontal representations provide more abstract and hierarchically organized memories suitable for decision making. We model a prefrontal network mediating distributed information processing for spatial learning and action planning. Specific connectivity and synaptic adaptation principles shape the recurrent dynamics of the network arranged in cortical minicolumns. We show how the PFC columnar organization is suitable for learning sparse topological-metrical representations from redundant hippocampal inputs. The recurrent nature of the network supports multilevel spatial processing, allowing structural features of the environment to be encoded. An activation diffusion mechanism spreads the neural activity through the column population leading to trajectory planning. The model provides a functional framework for interpreting the activity of PFC neurons recorded during navigation tasks. We illustrate the link from single unit activity to behavioral responses. The results suggest plausible neural mechanisms subserving the cognitive “insight” capability originally attributed to rodents by Tolman & Honzik. Our time course analysis of neural responses shows how the interaction between hippocampus and PFC can yield the encoding of manifold information pertinent to spatial planning, including prospective coding and distance-to-goal correlates. PMID:21625569

Modeling spatial patterns of soil respiration in maize fields from vegetation and soil property factors with the use of remote sensing and geographical information system.

PubMed

Huang, Ni; Wang, Li; Guo, Yiqiang; Hao, Pengyu; Niu, Zheng

2014-01-01

To examine the method for estimating the spatial patterns of soil respiration (Rs) in agricultural ecosystems using remote sensing and geographical information system (GIS), Rs rates were measured at 53 sites during the peak growing season of maize in three counties in North China. Through Pearson's correlation analysis, leaf area index (LAI), canopy chlorophyll content, aboveground biomass, soil organic carbon (SOC) content, and soil total nitrogen content were selected as the factors that affected spatial variability in Rs during the peak growing season of maize. The use of a structural equation modeling approach revealed that only LAI and SOC content directly affected Rs. Meanwhile, other factors indirectly affected Rs through LAI and SOC content. When three greenness vegetation indices were extracted from an optical image of an environmental and disaster mitigation satellite in China, enhanced vegetation index (EVI) showed the best correlation with LAI and was thus used as a proxy for LAI to estimate Rs at the regional scale. The spatial distribution of SOC content was obtained by extrapolating the SOC content at the plot scale based on the kriging interpolation method in GIS. When data were pooled for 38 plots, a first-order exponential analysis indicated that approximately 73% of the spatial variability in Rs during the peak growing season of maize can be explained by EVI and SOC content. Further test analysis based on independent data from 15 plots showed that the simple exponential model had acceptable accuracy in estimating the spatial patterns of Rs in maize fields on the basis of remotely sensed EVI and GIS-interpolated SOC content, with R2 of 0.69 and root-mean-square error of 0.51 µmol CO2 m(-2) s(-1). The conclusions from this study provide valuable information for estimates of Rs during the peak growing season of maize in three counties in North China.

Accounting for Non-Gaussian Sources of Spatial Correlation in Parametric Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Paradigms II: A Method to Obtain First-Level Analysis Residuals with Uniform and Gaussian Spatial Autocorrelation Function and Independent and Identically Distributed Time-Series.

PubMed

Gopinath, Kaundinya; Krishnamurthy, Venkatagiri; Lacey, Simon; Sathian, K

2018-02-01

In a recent study Eklund et al. have shown that cluster-wise family-wise error (FWE) rate-corrected inferences made in parametric statistical method-based functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies over the past couple of decades may have been invalid, particularly for cluster defining thresholds less stringent than p < 0.001; principally because the spatial autocorrelation functions (sACFs) of fMRI data had been modeled incorrectly to follow a Gaussian form, whereas empirical data suggest otherwise. Hence, the residuals from general linear model (GLM)-based fMRI activation estimates in these studies may not have possessed a homogenously Gaussian sACF. Here we propose a method based on the assumption that heterogeneity and non-Gaussianity of the sACF of the first-level GLM analysis residuals, as well as temporal autocorrelations in the first-level voxel residual time-series, are caused by unmodeled MRI signal from neuronal and physiological processes as well as motion and other artifacts, which can be approximated by appropriate decompositions of the first-level residuals with principal component analysis (PCA), and removed. We show that application of this method yields GLM residuals with significantly reduced spatial correlation, nearly Gaussian sACF and uniform spatial smoothness across the brain, thereby allowing valid cluster-based FWE-corrected inferences based on assumption of Gaussian spatial noise. We further show that application of this method renders the voxel time-series of first-level GLM residuals independent, and identically distributed across time (which is a necessary condition for appropriate voxel-level GLM inference), without having to fit ad hoc stochastic colored noise models. Furthermore, the detection power of individual subject brain activation analysis is enhanced. This method will be especially useful for case studies, which rely on first-level GLM analysis inferences.

Modeling Spatial Patterns of Soil Respiration in Maize Fields from Vegetation and Soil Property Factors with the Use of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System

PubMed Central

Huang, Ni; Wang, Li; Guo, Yiqiang; Hao, Pengyu; Niu, Zheng

2014-01-01

To examine the method for estimating the spatial patterns of soil respiration (Rs) in agricultural ecosystems using remote sensing and geographical information system (GIS), Rs rates were measured at 53 sites during the peak growing season of maize in three counties in North China. Through Pearson's correlation analysis, leaf area index (LAI), canopy chlorophyll content, aboveground biomass, soil organic carbon (SOC) content, and soil total nitrogen content were selected as the factors that affected spatial variability in Rs during the peak growing season of maize. The use of a structural equation modeling approach revealed that only LAI and SOC content directly affected Rs. Meanwhile, other factors indirectly affected Rs through LAI and SOC content. When three greenness vegetation indices were extracted from an optical image of an environmental and disaster mitigation satellite in China, enhanced vegetation index (EVI) showed the best correlation with LAI and was thus used as a proxy for LAI to estimate Rs at the regional scale. The spatial distribution of SOC content was obtained by extrapolating the SOC content at the plot scale based on the kriging interpolation method in GIS. When data were pooled for 38 plots, a first-order exponential analysis indicated that approximately 73% of the spatial variability in Rs during the peak growing season of maize can be explained by EVI and SOC content. Further test analysis based on independent data from 15 plots showed that the simple exponential model had acceptable accuracy in estimating the spatial patterns of Rs in maize fields on the basis of remotely sensed EVI and GIS-interpolated SOC content, with R2 of 0.69 and root-mean-square error of 0.51 µmol CO2 m−2 s−1. The conclusions from this study provide valuable information for estimates of Rs during the peak growing season of maize in three counties in North China. PMID:25157827

Soil erosion and sediment yield and their relationships with vegetation cover in upper stream of the Yellow River.

PubMed

Ouyang, Wei; Hao, Fanghua; Skidmore, Andrew K; Toxopeus, A G

2010-12-15

Soil erosion is a significant concern when considering regional environmental protection, especially in the Yellow River Basin in China. This study evaluated the temporal-spatial interaction of land cover status with soil erosion characteristics in the Longliu Catchment of China, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. SWAT is a physical hydrological model which uses the RUSLE equation as a sediment algorithm. Considering the spatial and temporal scale of the relationship between soil erosion and sediment yield, simulations were undertaken at monthly and annual temporal scales and basin and sub-basin spatial scales. The corresponding temporal and spatial Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) information was summarized from MODIS data, which can integrate regional land cover and climatic features. The SWAT simulation revealed that the annual soil erosion and sediment yield showed similar spatial distribution patterns, but the monthly variation fluctuated significantly. The monthly basin soil erosion varied from almost no erosion load to 3.92 t/ha and the maximum monthly sediment yield was 47,540 tones. The inter-annual simulation focused on the spatial difference and relationship with the corresponding vegetation NDVI value for every sub-basin. It is concluded that, for this continental monsoon climate basin, the higher NDVI vegetation zones prevented sediment transport, but at the same time they also contributed considerable soil erosion. The monthly basin soil erosion and sediment yield both correlated with NDVI, and the determination coefficients of their exponential correlation model were 0.446 and 0.426, respectively. The relationships between soil erosion and sediment yield with vegetation NDVI indicated that the vegetation status has a significant impact on sediment formation and transport. The findings can be used to develop soil erosion conservation programs for the study area. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial Econometric Research on the Relationship between Highway Construction and Regional Economic Growth in China: Evidence from the Nationwide Panel Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, N. J.; Li, W. J.; Li, Y.; Bai, Y. F.

2017-12-01

Based on spatial panel data from 2010 to 2016 in China, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between highway construction and regional economic growth by means of spatial econometric model. The results show that there is positive spatial correlation on regional economic growth in China, and strong spatial dependences between some provinces and cities appear, specifically, Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Zhejiang and other eastern coastal areas show high-high agglomeration trend, the Pearl River Delta region presents high-low agglomeration trend; In terms of nationwide provinces and municipalities, a province’s highway construction investment for their own province and the neighboring provinces has pulling effect on economic growth to a certain extent, and the direct effect is more obvious.

Factors Impacting Spatial Patterns of Snow Distribution in a Small Catchment near Nome, AK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Wilson, C. J.; Charsley-Groffman, L.; Busey, R.; Bolton, W. R.

2017-12-01

Snow cover plays an important role in the climate, hydrology and ecological systems of the Arctic due to its influence on the water balance, thermal regimes, vegetation and carbon flux. Thus, snow depth and coverage have been key components in all the earth system models but are often poorly represented for arctic regions, where fine scale snow distribution data is sparse. The snow data currently used in the models is at coarse resolution, which in turn leads to high uncertainty in model predictions. Through the DOE Office of Science Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment, NGEE-Arctic, high resolution snow distribution data is being developed and applied in catchment scale models to ultimately improve representation of snow and its interactions with other model components in the earth system models . To improve these models, it is important to identify key factors that control snow distribution and quantify the impacts of those factors on snow distribution. In this study, two intensive snow depth surveys (1 to 10 meters scale) were conducted for a 2.3 km2 catchment on the Teller road, near Nome, AK in the winter of 2016 and 2017. We used a statistical model to quantify the impacts of vegetation types, macro-topography, micro-topography, and meteorological parameters on measured snow depth. The results show that snow spatial distribution was similar between 2016 and 2017, snow depth was spatially auto correlated over small distance (2-5 meters), but not spatially auto correlated over larger distance (more than 2-5 meters). The coefficients of variation of snow depth was above 0.3 for all the snow survey transects (500-800 meters long). Variation of snow depth is governed by vegetation height, aspect, slope, surface curvature, elevation and wind speed and direction. We expect that this empirical statistical model can be used to estimate end of winter snow depth for the whole watershed and will further develop the model using data from other arctic regions to estimate seasonally dynamic snow coverage and properties for use in catchment scale to pan-Arctic models.

Spatiotemporal multivariate mixture models for Bayesian model selection in disease mapping.

PubMed

Lawson, A B; Carroll, R; Faes, C; Kirby, R S; Aregay, M; Watjou, K

2017-12-01

It is often the case that researchers wish to simultaneously explore the behavior of and estimate overall risk for multiple, related diseases with varying rarity while accounting for potential spatial and/or temporal correlation. In this paper, we propose a flexible class of multivariate spatio-temporal mixture models to fill this role. Further, these models offer flexibility with the potential for model selection as well as the ability to accommodate lifestyle, socio-economic, and physical environmental variables with spatial, temporal, or both structures. Here, we explore the capability of this approach via a large scale simulation study and examine a motivating data example involving three cancers in South Carolina. The results which are focused on four model variants suggest that all models possess the ability to recover simulation ground truth and display improved model fit over two baseline Knorr-Held spatio-temporal interaction model variants in a real data application.

Correlations between soil respiration and soil properties in sugarcane areas under green and slash-and-burn management systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo Panosso, Alan; Milori, Débora M. B. P.; Marques Júnior, José; Martin-Neto, Ladislau; La Scala, Newton, Jr.

2010-05-01

Soil management causes changes in soil physical, chemical, and biological properties that consequently affect its CO2 emission. In this work we studied soil respiration (FCO2) in areas with sugarcane production in southern Brazil under two different sugarcane management systems: green (G), consisting of mechanized harvesting that produces a large amount of crop residues left on the soil surface, and slash-and-burn (SB), in which the residues are burned before manual harvest, leaving no residues on the soil surface. The study was conducted after the harvest period in two side-by-side grids installed in adjacent areas, having 20 measurement points each. The objective of this work was to determinate whether soil physical and chemical properties within each plot were useful in order to explain the spatial variability of FCO2, supposedly influence by each management system. Most of the soil physical properties studied showed no significant differences between management systems, but on the other hand most of the chemical properties differed significantly when SB and G areas were compared. Total FCO2 was 31% higher in the SB plot (729 g CO2 m-2) when compared to the G plot (557 g CO2 m-2) throughout the 70-day period after harvest studied. This seems to be related to the sensitivity of FCO2 to precipitation events, as respiration in this plot increased significantly with increases in soil moisture. Despite temporal variability showed to be positively related to soil moisture, inside each management system there was a negative correlation (p<0.01) between the spatial changes of FCO2 and soil moisture (MS), R= -0.56 and -0.59 for G and SB respectively. There was no spatial correlation between FCO2 and soil organic matter in each management system, however, the humification index (Hum) of organic matter was negatively linear correlated with FCO2 in SB (R= -0.53, p<0.05) while positively linear correlated in G area (R=0.42, p<0.10). The multiple regression model analysis applied in each management system indicates that 63% of the FCO2 spatial variability in G managed could be explained by the model: FCO2(G)= 4.11978 -0.07672MS + 0.0045Hum +1.5352K -0.04474FWP, where K and FWP are potassium content and free water porosity in G area, respectively. On the other hand, 75% of FCO2 spatial variability in SB managed plot was accounted by the model: FCO2(SB) = 10.66774 -0.08624MS -0.02904Hum -2.42548K. Therefore, soil moisture, humification index of organic matter and potassium level were the main properties able to explain the spatial variability of FCO2 in both sugarcane management systems. This result indicates that changes in sugarcane management systems could result in changes on the soil chemical properties, mostly, especially humification index of organic matter. It seems that in conversion from slash-and-burn to green harvest system, free water porosity turns to be an important aspect in order to explain part of FCO2 spatial variability in green managed system.

Analysis of Alaskan burn severity patterns using remotely sensed data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duffy, P.A.; Epting, J.; Graham, J.M.; Rupp, T.S.; McGuire, A.D.

2007-01-01

Wildland fire is the dominant large-scale disturbance mechanism in the Alaskan boreal forest, and it strongly influences forest structure and function. In this research, patterns of burn severity in the Alaskan boreal forest are characterised using 24 fires. First, the relationship between burn severity and area burned is quantified using a linear regression. Second, the spatial correlation of burn severity as a function of topography is modelled using a variogram analysis. Finally, the relationship between vegetation type and spatial patterns of burn severity is quantified using linear models where variograms account for spatial correlation. These results show that: 1) average burn severity increases with the natural logarithm of the area of the wildfire, 2) burn severity is more variable in topographically complex landscapes than in flat landscapes, and 3) there is a significant relationship between burn severity and vegetation type in flat landscapes but not in topographically complex landscapes. These results strengthen the argument that differential flammability of vegetation exists in some boreal landscapes of Alaska. Additionally, these results suggest that through feedbacks between vegetation and burn severity, the distribution of forest vegetation through time is likely more stable in flat terrain than it is in areas with more complex topography. ?? IAWF 2007.

Calibration of a distributed hydrologic model using observed spatial patterns from MODIS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demirel, Mehmet C.; González, Gorka M.; Mai, Juliane; Stisen, Simon

2016-04-01

Distributed hydrologic models are typically calibrated against streamflow observations at the outlet of the basin. Along with these observations from gauging stations, satellite based estimates offer independent evaluation data such as remotely sensed actual evapotranspiration (aET) and land surface temperature. The primary objective of the study is to compare model calibrations against traditional downstream discharge measurements with calibrations against simulated spatial patterns and combinations of both types of observations. While the discharge based model calibration typically improves the temporal dynamics of the model, it seems to give rise to minimum improvement of the simulated spatial patterns. In contrast, objective functions specifically targeting the spatial pattern performance could potentially increase the spatial model performance. However, most modeling studies, including the model formulations and parameterization, are not designed to actually change the simulated spatial pattern during calibration. This study investigates the potential benefits of incorporating spatial patterns from MODIS data to calibrate the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM). This model is selected as it allows for a change in the spatial distribution of key soil parameters through the optimization of pedo-transfer function parameters and includes options for using fully distributed daily Leaf Area Index (LAI) values directly as input. In addition the simulated aET can be estimated at a spatial resolution suitable for comparison to the spatial patterns observed with MODIS data. To increase our control on spatial calibration we introduced three additional parameters to the model. These new parameters are part of an empirical equation to the calculate crop coefficient (Kc) from daily LAI maps and used to update potential evapotranspiration (PET) as model inputs. This is done instead of correcting/updating PET with just a uniform (or aspect driven) factor used in the mHM model (version 5.3). We selected the 20 most important parameters out of 53 mHM parameters based on a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (Cuntz et al., 2015). We calibrated 1km-daily mHM for the Skjern basin in Denmark using the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm and inputs at different spatial scales i.e. meteorological data at 10km and morphological data at 250 meters. We used correlation coefficients between observed monthly (summer months only) MODIS data calculated from cloud free days over the calibration period from 2001 to 2008 and simulated aET from mHM over the same period. Similarly other metrics, e.g mapcurves and fraction skill-score, are also included in our objective function to assess the co-location of the grid-cells. The preliminary results show that multi-objective calibration of mHM against observed streamflow and spatial patterns together does not significantly reduce the spatial errors in aET while it improves the streamflow simulations. This is a strong signal for further investigation of the multi parameter regionalization affecting spatial aET patterns and weighting the spatial metrics in the objective function relative to the streamflow metrics.

Assessing the significance of global and local correlations under spatial autocorrelation: a nonparametric approach.

PubMed

Viladomat, Júlia; Mazumder, Rahul; McInturff, Alex; McCauley, Douglas J; Hastie, Trevor

2014-06-01

We propose a method to test the correlation of two random fields when they are both spatially autocorrelated. In this scenario, the assumption of independence for the pair of observations in the standard test does not hold, and as a result we reject in many cases where there is no effect (the precision of the null distribution is overestimated). Our method recovers the null distribution taking into account the autocorrelation. It uses Monte-Carlo methods, and focuses on permuting, and then smoothing and scaling one of the variables to destroy the correlation with the other, while maintaining at the same time the initial autocorrelation. With this simulation model, any test based on the independence of two (or more) random fields can be constructed. This research was motivated by a project in biodiversity and conservation in the Biology Department at Stanford University. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Field measurements and modeling to resolve m2 to km2 CH4 emissions for a complex urban source: An Indiana landfill study

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Large uncertainties for landfill CH4 emissions due to spatial and temporal variabilities remain unresolved by short-term field campaigns and historic GHG inventory models. Using four field methods (aircraft-based mass balance, tracer correlation, vertical radial plume mapping, and static chambers) ...

Modeling uncertainty and correlation in soil properties using Restricted Pairing and implications for ensemble-based hillslope-scale soil moisture and temperature estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flores, A. N.; Entekhabi, D.; Bras, R. L.

2007-12-01

Soil hydraulic and thermal properties (SHTPs) affect both the rate of moisture redistribution in the soil column and the volumetric soil water capacity. Adequately constraining these properties through field and lab analysis to parameterize spatially-distributed hydrology models is often prohibitively expensive. Because SHTPs vary significantly at small spatial scales individual soil samples are also only reliably indicative of local conditions, and these properties remain a significant source of uncertainty in soil moisture and temperature estimation. In ensemble-based soil moisture data assimilation, uncertainty in the model-produced prior estimate due to associated uncertainty in SHTPs must be taken into account to avoid under-dispersive ensembles. To treat SHTP uncertainty for purposes of supplying inputs to a distributed watershed model we use the restricted pairing (RP) algorithm, an extension of Latin Hypercube (LH) sampling. The RP algorithm generates an arbitrary number of SHTP combinations by sampling the appropriate marginal distributions of the individual soil properties using the LH approach, while imposing a target rank correlation among the properties. A previously-published meta- database of 1309 soils representing 12 textural classes is used to fit appropriate marginal distributions to the properties and compute the target rank correlation structure, conditioned on soil texture. Given categorical soil textures, our implementation of the RP algorithm generates an arbitrarily-sized ensemble of realizations of the SHTPs required as input to the TIN-based Realtime Integrated Basin Simulator with vegetation dynamics (tRIBS+VEGGIE) distributed parameter ecohydrology model. Soil moisture ensembles simulated with RP- generated SHTPs exhibit less variance than ensembles simulated with SHTPs generated by a scheme that neglects correlation among properties. Neglecting correlation among SHTPs can lead to physically unrealistic combinations of parameters that exhibit implausible hydrologic behavior when input to the tRIBS+VEGGIE model.

A stochastic-dynamic model for global atmospheric mass field statistics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghil, M.; Balgovind, R.; Kalnay-Rivas, E.

1981-01-01

A model that yields the spatial correlation structure of atmospheric mass field forecast errors was developed. The model is governed by the potential vorticity equation forced by random noise. Expansion in spherical harmonics and correlation function was computed analytically using the expansion coefficients. The finite difference equivalent was solved using a fast Poisson solver and the correlation function was computed using stratified sampling of the individual realization of F(omega) and hence of phi(omega). A higher order equation for gamma was derived and solved directly in finite differences by two successive applications of the fast Poisson solver. The methods were compared for accuracy and efficiency and the third method was chosen as clearly superior. The results agree well with the latitude dependence of observed atmospheric correlation data. The value of the parameter c sub o which gives the best fit to the data is close to the value expected from dynamical considerations.

Developing a spatial-statistical model and map of historical malaria prevalence in Botswana using a staged variable selection procedure

PubMed Central

Craig, Marlies H; Sharp, Brian L; Mabaso, Musawenkosi LH; Kleinschmidt, Immo

2007-01-01

Background Several malaria risk maps have been developed in recent years, many from the prevalence of infection data collated by the MARA (Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa) project, and using various environmental data sets as predictors. Variable selection is a major obstacle due to analytical problems caused by over-fitting, confounding and non-independence in the data. Testing and comparing every combination of explanatory variables in a Bayesian spatial framework remains unfeasible for most researchers. The aim of this study was to develop a malaria risk map using a systematic and practicable variable selection process for spatial analysis and mapping of historical malaria risk in Botswana. Results Of 50 potential explanatory variables from eight environmental data themes, 42 were significantly associated with malaria prevalence in univariate logistic regression and were ranked by the Akaike Information Criterion. Those correlated with higher-ranking relatives of the same environmental theme, were temporarily excluded. The remaining 14 candidates were ranked by selection frequency after running automated step-wise selection procedures on 1000 bootstrap samples drawn from the data. A non-spatial multiple-variable model was developed through step-wise inclusion in order of selection frequency. Previously excluded variables were then re-evaluated for inclusion, using further step-wise bootstrap procedures, resulting in the exclusion of another variable. Finally a Bayesian geo-statistical model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation was fitted to the data, resulting in a final model of three predictor variables, namely summer rainfall, mean annual temperature and altitude. Each was independently and significantly associated with malaria prevalence after allowing for spatial correlation. This model was used to predict malaria prevalence at unobserved locations, producing a smooth risk map for the whole country. Conclusion We have produced a highly plausible and parsimonious model of historical malaria risk for Botswana from point-referenced data from a 1961/2 prevalence survey of malaria infection in 1–14 year old children. After starting with a list of 50 potential variables we ended with three highly plausible predictors, by applying a systematic and repeatable staged variable selection procedure that included a spatial analysis, which has application for other environmentally determined infectious diseases. All this was accomplished using general-purpose statistical software. PMID:17892584

Modeling the impacts of phenological and inter-annual changes in landscape metrics on local biodiversity of agricultural lands of Eastern Ontario using multi-spatial and multi-temporal remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alavi-Shoushtari, N.; King, D.

2017-12-01

Agricultural landscapes are highly variable ecosystems and are home to many local farmland species. Seasonal, phenological and inter-annual agricultural landscape dynamics have potential to affect the richness and abundance of farmland species. Remote sensing provides data and techniques which enable monitoring landscape changes in multiple temporal and spatial scales. MODIS high temporal resolution remote sensing images enable detection of seasonal and phenological trends, while Landsat higher spatial resolution images, with its long term archive enables inter-annual trend analysis over several decades. The objective of this study to use multi-spatial and multi-temporal remote sensing data to model the response of farmland species to landscape metrics. The study area is the predominantly agricultural region of eastern Ontario. 92 sample landscapes were selected within this region using a protocol designed to maximize variance in composition and configuration heterogeneity while controlling for amount of forest and spatial autocorrelation. Two sample landscape extents (1×1km and 3×3km) were selected to analyze the impacts of spatial scale on biodiversity response. Gamma diversity index data for four taxa groups (birds, butterflies, plants, and beetles) were collected during the summers of 2011 and 2012 within the cropped area of each landscape. To extract the seasonal and phenological metrics a 2000-2012 MODIS NDVI time-series was used, while a 1985-2012 Landsat time-series was used to model the inter-annual trends of change in the sample landscapes. The results of statistical modeling showed significant relationships between farmland biodiversity for several taxa and the phenological and inter-annual variables. The following general results were obtained: 1) Among the taxa groups, plant and beetles diversity was most significantly correlated with the phenological variables; 2) Those phenological variables which are associated with the variability in the start of season date across the sample landscapes and the variability in the corresponding NDVI values at that date showed the strongest correlation with the biodiversity indices; 3) The significance of the models improved when using 3×3km site extent both for MODIS and Landsat based models due most likely to the larger sample size over 3x3km.

Spatial Metrics of Tumour Vascular Organisation Predict Radiation Efficacy in a Computational Model

PubMed Central

Scott, Jacob G.

2016-01-01

Intratumoural heterogeneity is known to contribute to poor therapeutic response. Variations in oxygen tension in particular have been correlated with changes in radiation response in vitro and at the clinical scale with overall survival. Heterogeneity at the microscopic scale in tumour blood vessel architecture has been described, and is one source of the underlying variations in oxygen tension. We seek to determine whether histologic scale measures of the erratic distribution of blood vessels within a tumour can be used to predict differing radiation response. Using a two-dimensional hybrid cellular automaton model of tumour growth, we evaluate the effect of vessel distribution on cell survival outcomes of simulated radiation therapy. Using the standard equations for the oxygen enhancement ratio for cell survival probability under differing oxygen tensions, we calculate average radiation effect over a range of different vessel densities and organisations. We go on to quantify the vessel distribution heterogeneity and measure spatial organization using Ripley’s L function, a measure designed to detect deviations from complete spatial randomness. We find that under differing regimes of vessel density the correlation coefficient between the measure of spatial organization and radiation effect changes sign. This provides not only a useful way to understand the differences seen in radiation effect for tissues based on vessel architecture, but also an alternate explanation for the vessel normalization hypothesis. PMID:26800503

Using spatial information about recurrence risk for robust optimization of dose-painting prescription functions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bender, Edward T.

Purpose: To develop a robust method for deriving dose-painting prescription functions using spatial information about the risk for disease recurrence. Methods: Spatial distributions of radiobiological model parameters are derived from distributions of recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. These model parameters are then used to derive optimal dose-painting prescription functions given a constant mean biologically effective dose. Results: An estimate for the optimal dose distribution can be derived based on spatial information about recurrence risk. Dose painting based on imaging markers that are moderately or poorly correlated with recurrence risk are predicted to potentially result in inferior disease control when comparedmore » the same mean biologically effective dose delivered uniformly. A robust optimization approach may partially mitigate this issue. Conclusions: The methods described here can be used to derive an estimate for a robust, patient-specific prescription function for use in dose painting. Two approximate scaling relationships were observed: First, the optimal choice for the maximum dose differential when using either a linear or two-compartment prescription function is proportional to R, where R is the Pearson correlation coefficient between a given imaging marker and recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. Second, the predicted maximum possible gain in tumor control probability for any robust optimization technique is nearly proportional to the square of R.« less

The stochastic runoff-runon process: Extending its analysis to a finite hillslope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, O. D.; Lane, P. N. J.; Sheridan, G. J.

2016-10-01

The stochastic runoff-runon process models the volume of infiltration excess runoff from a hillslope via the overland flow path. Spatial variability is represented in the model by the spatial distribution of rainfall and infiltration, and their ;correlation scale;, that is, the scale at which the spatial correlation of rainfall and infiltration become negligible. Notably, the process can produce runoff even when the mean rainfall rate is less than the mean infiltration rate, and it displays a gradual increase in net runoff as the rainfall rate increases. In this paper we present a number of contributions to the analysis of the stochastic runoff-runon process. Firstly we illustrate the suitability of the process by fitting it to experimental data. Next we extend previous asymptotic analyses to include the cases where the mean rainfall rate equals or exceeds the mean infiltration rate, and then use Monte Carlo simulation to explore the range of parameters for which the asymptotic limit gives a good approximation on finite hillslopes. Finally we use this to obtain an equation for the mean net runoff, consistent with our asymptotic results but providing an excellent approximation for finite hillslopes. Our function uses a single parameter to capture spatial variability, and varying this parameter gives us a family of curves which interpolate between known upper and lower bounds for the mean net runoff.

Effective pore-scale dispersion upscaling with a correlated continuous time random walk approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Borgne, T.; Bolster, D.; Dentz, M.; de Anna, P.; Tartakovsky, A.

2011-12-01

We investigate the upscaling of dispersion from a pore-scale analysis of Lagrangian velocities. A key challenge in the upscaling procedure is to relate the temporal evolution of spreading to the pore-scale velocity field properties. We test the hypothesis that one can represent Lagrangian velocities at the pore scale as a Markov process in space. The resulting effective transport model is a continuous time random walk (CTRW) characterized by a correlated random time increment, here denoted as correlated CTRW. We consider a simplified sinusoidal wavy channel model as well as a more complex heterogeneous pore space. For both systems, the predictions of the correlated CTRW model, with parameters defined from the velocity field properties (both distribution and correlation), are found to be in good agreement with results from direct pore-scale simulations over preasymptotic and asymptotic times. In this framework, the nontrivial dependence of dispersion on the pore boundary fluctuations is shown to be related to the competition between distribution and correlation effects. In particular, explicit inclusion of spatial velocity correlation in the effective CTRW model is found to be important to represent incomplete mixing in the pore throats.

Improving Global Models of Remotely Sensed Ocean Chlorophyll Content Using Partial Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gholizadeh, H.; Robeson, S. M.

2015-12-01

Empirical models have been widely used to estimate global chlorophyll content from remotely sensed data. Here, we focus on the standard NASA empirical models that use blue-green band ratios. These band ratio ocean color (OC) algorithms are in the form of fourth-order polynomials and the parameters of these polynomials (i.e. coefficients) are estimated from the NASA bio-Optical Marine Algorithm Data set (NOMAD). Most of the points in this data set have been sampled from tropical and temperate regions. However, polynomial coefficients obtained from this data set are used to estimate chlorophyll content in all ocean regions with different properties such as sea-surface temperature, salinity, and downwelling/upwelling patterns. Further, the polynomial terms in these models are highly correlated. In sum, the limitations of these empirical models are as follows: 1) the independent variables within the empirical models, in their current form, are correlated (multicollinear), and 2) current algorithms are global approaches and are based on the spatial stationarity assumption, so they are independent of location. Multicollinearity problem is resolved by using partial least squares (PLS). PLS, which transforms the data into a set of independent components, can be considered as a combined form of principal component regression (PCR) and multiple regression. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) is also used to investigate the validity of spatial stationarity assumption. GWR solves a regression model over each sample point by using the observations within its neighbourhood. PLS results show that the empirical method underestimates chlorophyll content in high latitudes, including the Southern Ocean region, when compared to PLS (see Figure 1). Cluster analysis of GWR coefficients also shows that the spatial stationarity assumption in empirical models is not likely a valid assumption.

Continental-scale temperature covariance in proxy reconstructions and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartl-Meier, Claudia; Büntgen, Ulf; Smerdon, Jason; Zorita, Eduardo; Krusic, Paul; Ljungqvist, Fredrik; Schneider, Lea; Esper, Jan

2017-04-01

Inter-continental temperature variability over the past millennium has been reported to be more coherent in climate model simulations than in multi-proxy-based reconstructions, a finding that undermines the representation of spatial variability in either of these approaches. We assess the covariance of summer temperatures among Northern Hemisphere continents by comparing tree-ring based temperature reconstructions with state-of-the-art climate model simulations over the past millennium. We find inter-continental temperature covariance to be larger in tree-ring-only reconstructions compared to those derived from multi-proxy networks, thus enhancing the agreement between proxy- and model-based spatial representations. A detailed comparison of simulated temperatures, however, reveals substantial spread among the models. Over the past millennium, inter-continental temperature correlations are driven by the cooling after major volcanic eruptions in 1257, 1452, 1601, and 1815. The coherence of these synchronizing events appears to be elevated in several climate simulations relative to their own covariance baselines and the proxy reconstructions, suggesting these models overestimate the amplitude of cooling in response to volcanic forcing at large spatial scales.

Robust optical flow using adaptive Lorentzian filter for image reconstruction under noisy condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kesrarat, Darun; Patanavijit, Vorapoj

2017-02-01

In optical flow for motion allocation, the efficient result in Motion Vector (MV) is an important issue. Several noisy conditions may cause the unreliable result in optical flow algorithms. We discover that many classical optical flows algorithms perform better result under noisy condition when combined with modern optimized model. This paper introduces effective robust models of optical flow by using Robust high reliability spatial based optical flow algorithms using the adaptive Lorentzian norm influence function in computation on simple spatial temporal optical flows algorithm. Experiment on our proposed models confirm better noise tolerance in optical flow's MV under noisy condition when they are applied over simple spatial temporal optical flow algorithms as a filtering model in simple frame-to-frame correlation technique. We illustrate the performance of our models by performing an experiment on several typical sequences with differences in movement speed of foreground and background where the experiment sequences are contaminated by the additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) at different noise decibels (dB). This paper shows very high effectiveness of noise tolerance models that they are indicated by peak signal to noise ratio (PSNR).

Neural dynamics of motion processing and speed discrimination.

PubMed

Chey, J; Grossberg, S; Mingolla, E

1998-09-01

A neural network model of visual motion perception and speed discrimination is presented. The model shows how a distributed population code of speed tuning, that realizes a size-speed correlation, can be derived from the simplest mechanisms whereby activations of multiple spatially short-range filters of different size are transformed into speed-turned cell responses. These mechanisms use transient cell responses to moving stimuli, output thresholds that covary with filter size, and competition. These mechanisms are proposed to occur in the V1-->MT cortical processing stream. The model reproduces empirically derived speed discrimination curves and simulates data showing how visual speed perception and discrimination can be affected by stimulus contrast, duration, dot density and spatial frequency. Model motion mechanisms are analogous to mechanisms that have been used to model 3-D form and figure-ground perception. The model forms the front end of a larger motion processing system that has been used to simulate how global motion capture occurs, and how spatial attention is drawn to moving forms. It provides a computational foundation for an emerging neural theory of 3-D form and motion perception.

Advances in Parameter and Uncertainty Quantification Using Bayesian Hierarchical Techniques with a Spatially Referenced Watershed Model (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, R. B.; Boyer, E. W.; Schwarz, G. E.; Smith, R. A.

2013-12-01

Estimating water and material stores and fluxes in watershed studies is frequently complicated by uncertainties in quantifying hydrological and biogeochemical effects of factors such as land use, soils, and climate. Although these process-related effects are commonly measured and modeled in separate catchments, researchers are especially challenged by their complexity across catchments and diverse environmental settings, leading to a poor understanding of how model parameters and prediction uncertainties vary spatially. To address these concerns, we illustrate the use of Bayesian hierarchical modeling techniques with a dynamic version of the spatially referenced watershed model SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes). The dynamic SPARROW model is designed to predict streamflow and other water cycle components (e.g., evapotranspiration, soil and groundwater storage) for monthly varying hydrological regimes, using mechanistic functions, mass conservation constraints, and statistically estimated parameters. In this application, the model domain includes nearly 30,000 NHD (National Hydrologic Data) stream reaches and their associated catchments in the Susquehanna River Basin. We report the results of our comparisons of alternative models of varying complexity, including models with different explanatory variables as well as hierarchical models that account for spatial and temporal variability in model parameters and variance (error) components. The model errors are evaluated for changes with season and catchment size and correlations in time and space. The hierarchical models consist of a two-tiered structure in which climate forcing parameters are modeled as random variables, conditioned on watershed properties. Quantification of spatial and temporal variations in the hydrological parameters and model uncertainties in this approach leads to more efficient (lower variance) and less biased model predictions throughout the river network. Moreover, predictions of water-balance components are reported according to probabilistic metrics (e.g., percentiles, prediction intervals) that include both parameter and model uncertainties. These improvements in predictions of streamflow dynamics can inform the development of more accurate predictions of spatial and temporal variations in biogeochemical stores and fluxes (e.g., nutrients and carbon) in watersheds.

Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brandt, Laura A.; Benscoter, Allison; Harvey, Rebecca G.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2017-01-01

Climate envelope models are widely used to describe potential future distribution of species under different climate change scenarios. It is broadly recognized that there are both strengths and limitations to using climate envelope models and that outcomes are sensitive to initial assumptions, inputs, and modeling methods Selection of predictor variables, a central step in modeling, is one of the areas where different techniques can yield varying results. Selection of climate variables to use as predictors is often done using statistical approaches that develop correlations between occurrences and climate data. These approaches have received criticism in that they rely on the statistical properties of the data rather than directly incorporating biological information about species responses to temperature and precipitation. We evaluated and compared models and prediction maps for 15 threatened or endangered species in Florida based on two variable selection techniques: expert opinion and a statistical method. We compared model performance between these two approaches for contemporary predictions, and the spatial correlation, spatial overlap and area predicted for contemporary and future climate predictions. In general, experts identified more variables as being important than the statistical method and there was low overlap in the variable sets (<40%) between the two methods Despite these differences in variable sets (expert versus statistical), models had high performance metrics (>0.9 for area under the curve (AUC) and >0.7 for true skill statistic (TSS). Spatial overlap, which compares the spatial configuration between maps constructed using the different variable selection techniques, was only moderate overall (about 60%), with a great deal of variability across species. Difference in spatial overlap was even greater under future climate projections, indicating additional divergence of model outputs from different variable selection techniques. Our work is in agreement with other studies which have found that for broad-scale species distribution modeling, using statistical methods of variable selection is a useful first step, especially when there is a need to model a large number of species or expert knowledge of the species is limited. Expert input can then be used to refine models that seem unrealistic or for species that experts believe are particularly sensitive to change. It also emphasizes the importance of using multiple models to reduce uncertainty and improve map outputs for conservation planning. Where outputs overlap or show the same direction of change there is greater certainty in the predictions. Areas of disagreement can be used for learning by asking why the models do not agree, and may highlight areas where additional on-the-ground data collection could improve the models.

Use of forecasting signatures to help distinguish periodicity, randomness, and chaos in ripples and other spatial patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rubin, D.M.

1992-01-01

Forecasting of one-dimensional time series previously has been used to help distinguish periodicity, chaos, and noise. This paper presents two-dimensional generalizations for making such distinctions for spatial patterns. The techniques are evaluated using synthetic spatial patterns and then are applied to a natural example: ripples formed in sand by blowing wind. Tests with the synthetic patterns demonstrate that the forecasting techniques can be applied to two-dimensional spatial patterns, with the same utility and limitations as when applied to one-dimensional time series. One limitation is that some combinations of periodicity and randomness exhibit forecasting signatures that mimic those of chaos. For example, sine waves distorted with correlated phase noise have forecasting errors that increase with forecasting distance, errors that, are minimized using nonlinear models at moderate embedding dimensions, and forecasting properties that differ significantly between the original and surrogates. Ripples formed in sand by flowing air or water typically vary in geometry from one to another, even when formed in a flow that is uniform on a large scale; each ripple modifies the local flow or sand-transport field, thereby influencing the geometry of the next ripple downcurrent. Spatial forecasting was used to evaluate the hypothesis that such a deterministic process - rather than randomness or quasiperiodicity - is responsible for the variation between successive ripples. This hypothesis is supported by a forecasting error that increases with forecasting distance, a greater accuracy of nonlinear relative to linear models, and significant differences between forecasts made with the original ripples and those made with surrogate patterns. Forecasting signatures cannot be used to distinguish ripple geometry from sine waves with correlated phase noise, but this kind of structure can be ruled out by two geometric properties of the ripples: Successive ripples are highly correlated in wavelength, and ripple crests display dislocations such as branchings and mergers. ?? 1992 American Institute of Physics.

COSMIC INFRARED BACKGROUND FLUCTUATIONS AND ZODIACAL LIGHT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arendt, Richard G.; Kashlinsky, A.; Moseley, S. H.

We performed a specific observational test to measure the effect that the zodiacal light can have on measurements of the spatial fluctuations of the near-IR background. Previous estimates of possible fluctuations caused by zodiacal light have often been extrapolated from observations of the thermal emission at longer wavelengths and low angular resolution or from IRAC observations of high-latitude fields where zodiacal light is faint and not strongly varying with time. The new observations analyzed here target the COSMOS field at low ecliptic latitude where the zodiacal light intensity varies by factors of ∼2 over the range of solar elongations atmore » which the field can be observed. We find that the white-noise component of the spatial power spectrum of the background is correlated with the modeled zodiacal light intensity. Roughly half of the measured white noise is correlated with the zodiacal light, but a more detailed interpretation of the white noise is hampered by systematic uncertainties that are evident in the zodiacal light model. At large angular scales (≳100″) where excess power above the white noise is observed, we find no correlation of the power with the modeled intensity of the zodiacal light. This test clearly indicates that the large-scale power in the infrared background is not being caused by the zodiacal light.« less

Cosmic Infrared Background Fluctuations and Zodiacal Light

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arendt, Richard G.; Kashlinsky, A.; Moseley, S. H.; Mather, J.

2016-06-01

We performed a specific observational test to measure the effect that the zodiacal light can have on measurements of the spatial fluctuations of the near-IR background. Previous estimates of possible fluctuations caused by zodiacal light have often been extrapolated from observations of the thermal emission at longer wavelengths and low angular resolution or from IRAC observations of high-latitude fields where zodiacal light is faint and not strongly varying with time. The new observations analyzed here target the COSMOS field at low ecliptic latitude where the zodiacal light intensity varies by factors of ˜2 over the range of solar elongations at which the field can be observed. We find that the white-noise component of the spatial power spectrum of the background is correlated with the modeled zodiacal light intensity. Roughly half of the measured white noise is correlated with the zodiacal light, but a more detailed interpretation of the white noise is hampered by systematic uncertainties that are evident in the zodiacal light model. At large angular scales (≳100″) where excess power above the white noise is observed, we find no correlation of the power with the modeled intensity of the zodiacal light. This test clearly indicates that the large-scale power in the infrared background is not being caused by the zodiacal light.

Transitions between strongly correlated and random steady-states for catalytic CO-oxidation on surfaces at high-pressure

DOE PAGES

Liu, Da -Jiang; Evans, James W.

2015-04-02

We explore simple lattice-gas reaction models for CO-oxidation on 1D and 2D periodic arrays of surface adsorption sites. The models are motivated by studies of CO-oxidation on RuO 2(110) at high-pressures. Although adspecies interactions are neglected, the effective absence of adspecies diffusion results in kinetically-induced spatial correlations. A transition occurs from a random mainly CO-populated steady-state at high CO-partial pressure p CO, to a strongly-correlated near-O-covered steady-state for low p CO as noted. In addition, we identify a second transition to a random near-O-covered steady-state at very low p CO.

Optical-Correlator Neural Network Based On Neocognitron

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Tien-Hsin; Stoner, William W.

1994-01-01

Multichannel optical correlator implements shift-invariant, high-discrimination pattern-recognizing neural network based on paradigm of neocognitron. Selected as basic building block of this neural network because invariance under shifts is inherent advantage of Fourier optics included in optical correlators in general. Neocognitron is conceptual electronic neural-network model for recognition of visual patterns. Multilayer processing achieved by iteratively feeding back output of feature correlator to input spatial light modulator and updating Fourier filters. Neural network trained by use of characteristic features extracted from target images. Multichannel implementation enables parallel processing of large number of selected features.

Monitoring Method of Cow Anthrax Based on Gis and Spatial Statistical Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lin; Yang, Yong; Wang, Hongbin; Dong, Jing; Zhao, Yujun; He, Jianbin; Fan, Honggang

Geographic information system (GIS) is a computer application system, which possesses the ability of manipulating spatial information and has been used in many fields related with the spatial information management. Many methods and models have been established for analyzing animal diseases distribution models and temporal-spatial transmission models. Great benefits have been gained from the application of GIS in animal disease epidemiology. GIS is now a very important tool in animal disease epidemiological research. Spatial analysis function of GIS can be widened and strengthened by using spatial statistical analysis, allowing for the deeper exploration, analysis, manipulation and interpretation of spatial pattern and spatial correlation of the animal disease. In this paper, we analyzed the cow anthrax spatial distribution characteristics in the target district A (due to the secret of epidemic data we call it district A) based on the established GIS of the cow anthrax in this district in combination of spatial statistical analysis and GIS. The Cow anthrax is biogeochemical disease, and its geographical distribution is related closely to the environmental factors of habitats and has some spatial characteristics, and therefore the correct analysis of the spatial distribution of anthrax cow for monitoring and the prevention and control of anthrax has a very important role. However, the application of classic statistical methods in some areas is very difficult because of the pastoral nomadic context. The high mobility of livestock and the lack of enough suitable sampling for the some of the difficulties in monitoring currently make it nearly impossible to apply rigorous random sampling methods. It is thus necessary to develop an alternative sampling method, which could overcome the lack of sampling and meet the requirements for randomness. The GIS computer application software ArcGIS9.1 was used to overcome the lack of data of sampling sites.Using ArcGIS 9.1 and GEODA to analyze the cow anthrax spatial distribution of district A. we gained some conclusions about cow anthrax' density: (1) there is a spatial clustering model. (2) there is an intensely spatial autocorrelation. We established a prediction model to estimate the anthrax distribution based on the spatial characteristic of the density of cow anthrax. Comparing with the true distribution, the prediction model has a well coincidence and is feasible to the application. The method using a GIS tool facilitates can be implemented significantly in the cow anthrax monitoring and investigation, and the space statistics - related prediction model provides a fundamental use for other study on space-related animal diseases.

[Temporal and spatial characteristics of ecological risk in Shunyi, Beijing, China based on landscape structure.

PubMed

Qing, Feng Ting; Peng, Yu

2016-05-01

Based on the remote sensing data in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2009 and 2013, this article classified the landscape types of Shunyi, and the ecological risk index was built based on landscape disturbance index and landscape fragility. The spatial auto-correlation and geostatistical analysis by GS + and ArcGIS was used to study temporal and spatial changes of ecological risk. The results showed that eco-risk degree in the study region had positive spatial correlation which decreased with the increasing grain size. Within a certain grain range (<12 km), the spatial auto-correlation had an obvious dependence on scale. The random variation of spatial heterogeneity was less than spatial auto-correlation variation from 1997 to 2013, which meant the auto-correlation had a dominant role in spatial heterogeneity. The ecological risk of Shunyi was mainly at moderate level during the study period. The area of the district with higher and lower ecological risk increased, while that of mode-rate ecological risk decreased. The area with low ecological risk was mainly located in the airport region and forest of southeast Shunyi, while that with high ecological risk was mainly concentrated in the water landscape, such as the banks of Chaobai River.

Collective Interaction in a Linear Array of Supersonic Rectangular Jets: A Linear Spatial Instability Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miles, Jeffrey Hilton

1999-01-01

A linear spatial instability model for multiple spatially periodic supersonic rectangular jets is solved using Floquet-Bloch theory. It is assumed that in the region of interest a coherent wave can propagate. For the case studied large spatial growth rates are found. This work is motivated by an increase in mixing found in experimental measurements of spatially periodic supersonic rectangular jets with phase-locked screech and edge tone feedback locked subsonic jets. The results obtained in this paper suggests that phase-locked screech or edge tones may produce correlated spatially periodic jet flow downstream of the nozzles which creates a large span wise multi-nozzle region where a coherent wave can propagate. The large spatial growth rates for eddies obtained by model calculation herein are related to the increased mixing since eddies are the primary mechanism that transfer energy from the mean flow to the large turbulent structures. Calculations of spacial growth rates will be presented for a set of relative Mach numbers and spacings for which experimental measurements have been made. Calculations of spatial growth rates are presented for relative Mach numbers from 1.25 to 1.75 with ratios of nozzle spacing to nozzle width ratios from s/w(sub N) = 4 to s/w(sub N) = 13.7. The model may be of significant scientific and engineering value in the quest to understand and construct supersonic mixer-ejector nozzles which provide increased mixing and reduced noise.

Spatial and Temporal Uncertainty of Crop Yield Aggregations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Porwollik, Vera; Mueller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Iizumi, Toshichika; Ray, Deepak K.; Ruane, Alex C.; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe;