Modelling habitat associations with fingernail clam (Family: Sphaeriidae) counts at multiple spatial scales using hierarchical count models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, B.R.; Haro, R.J.; Rogala, J.T.; Sauer, J.S.

2005-01-01

1. Macroinvertebrate count data often exhibit nested or hierarchical structure. Examples include multiple measurements along each of a set of streams, and multiple synoptic measurements from each of a set of ponds. With data exhibiting hierarchical structure, outcomes at both sampling (e.g. Within stream) and aggregated (e.g. Stream) scales are often of interest. Unfortunately, methods for modelling hierarchical count data have received little attention in the ecological literature. 2. We demonstrate the use of hierarchical count models using fingernail clam (Family: Sphaeriidae) count data and habitat predictors derived from sampling and aggregated spatial scales. The sampling scale corresponded to that of a standard Ponar grab (0.052 m(2)) and the aggregated scale to impounded and backwater regions within 38-197 km reaches of the Upper Mississippi River. Impounded and backwater regions were resampled annually for 10 years. Consequently, measurements on clams were nested within years. Counts were treated as negative binomial random variates, and means from each resampling event as random departures from the impounded and backwater region grand means. 3. Clam models were improved by the addition of covariates that varied at both the sampling and regional scales. Substrate composition varied at the sampling scale and was associated with model improvements, and reductions (for a given mean) in variance at the sampling scale. Inorganic suspended solids (ISS) levels, measured in the summer preceding sampling, also yielded model improvements and were associated with reductions in variances at the regional rather than sampling scales. ISS levels were negatively associated with mean clam counts. 4. Hierarchical models allow hierarchically structured data to be modelled without ignoring information specific to levels of the hierarchy. In addition, information at each hierarchical level may be modelled as functions of covariates that themselves vary by and within levels. As a result, hierarchical models provide researchers and resource managers with a method for modelling hierarchical data that explicitly recognises both the sampling design and the information contained in the corresponding data.

Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2004 - Annual Report

EPA Science Inventory

This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O₃ and PM_2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2004 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O₃ ...

Linking landscape characteristics to local grizzly bear abundance using multiple detection methods in a hierarchical model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, T.A.; Kendall, Katherine C.; Royle, J. Andrew; Stetz, J.B.; Macleod, A.C.

2011-01-01

Few studies link habitat to grizzly bear Ursus arctos abundance and these have not accounted for the variation in detection or spatial autocorrelation. We collected and genotyped bear hair in and around Glacier National Park in northwestern Montana during the summer of 2000. We developed a hierarchical Markov chain Monte Carlo model that extends the existing occupancy and count models by accounting for (1) spatially explicit variables that we hypothesized might influence abundance; (2) separate sub-models of detection probability for two distinct sampling methods (hair traps and rub trees) targeting different segments of the population; (3) covariates to explain variation in each sub-model of detection; (4) a conditional autoregressive term to account for spatial autocorrelation; (5) weights to identify most important variables. Road density and per cent mesic habitat best explained variation in female grizzly bear abundance; spatial autocorrelation was not supported. More female bears were predicted in places with lower road density and with more mesic habitat. Detection rates of females increased with rub tree sampling effort. Road density best explained variation in male grizzly bear abundance and spatial autocorrelation was supported. More male bears were predicted in areas of low road density. Detection rates of males increased with rub tree and hair trap sampling effort and decreased over the sampling period. We provide a new method to (1) incorporate multiple detection methods into hierarchical models of abundance; (2) determine whether spatial autocorrelation should be included in final models. Our results suggest that the influence of landscape variables is consistent between habitat selection and abundance in this system.

Improving removal-based estimates of abundance by sampling a population of spatially distinct subpopulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, R.M.; Jelks, H.L.; Jordan, F.

2005-01-01

 A statistical modeling framework is described for estimating the abundances of spatially distinct subpopulations of animals surveyed using removal sampling. To illustrate this framework, hierarchical models are developed using the Poisson and negative-binomial distributions to model variation in abundance among subpopulations and using the beta distribution to model variation in capture probabilities. These models are fitted to the removal counts observed in a survey of a federally endangered fish species. The resulting estimates of abundance have similar or better precision than those computed using the conventional approach of analyzing the removal counts of each subpopulation separately. Extension of the hierarchical models to include spatial covariates of abundance is straightforward and may be used to identify important features of an animal's habitat or to predict the abundance of animals at unsampled locations.

LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

Treesearch

Chad Babcock; Andrew O. Finley; John B. Bradford; Randy Kolka; Richard Birdsey; Michael G. Ryan

2015-01-01

Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both...

Use of space-time models to investigate the stability of patterns of disease.

PubMed

Abellan, Juan Jose; Richardson, Sylvia; Best, Nicky

2008-08-01

The use of Bayesian hierarchical spatial models has become widespread in disease mapping and ecologic studies of health-environment associations. In this type of study, the data are typically aggregated over an extensive time period, thus neglecting the time dimension. The output of purely spatial disease mapping studies is therefore the average spatial pattern of risk over the period analyzed, but the results do not inform about, for example, whether a high average risk was sustained over time or changed over time. We investigated how including the time dimension in disease-mapping models strengthens the epidemiologic interpretation of the overall pattern of risk. We discuss a class of Bayesian hierarchical models that simultaneously characterize and estimate the stable spatial and temporal patterns as well as departures from these stable components. We show how useful rules for classifying areas as stable can be constructed based on the posterior distribution of the space-time interactions. We carry out a simulation study to investigate the sensitivity and specificity of the decision rules we propose, and we illustrate our approach in a case study of congenital anomalies in England. Our results confirm that extending hierarchical disease-mapping models to models that simultaneously consider space and time leads to a number of benefits in terms of interpretation and potential for detection of localized excesses.

Spatial-area selective retrieval of multiple object-place associations in a hierarchical cognitive map formed by theta phase coding.

PubMed

Sato, Naoyuki; Yamaguchi, Yoko

2009-06-01

The human cognitive map is known to be hierarchically organized consisting of a set of perceptually clustered landmarks. Patient studies have demonstrated that these cognitive maps are maintained by the hippocampus, while the neural dynamics are still poorly understood. The authors have shown that the neural dynamic "theta phase precession" observed in the rodent hippocampus may be capable of forming hierarchical cognitive maps in humans. In the model, a visual input sequence consisting of object and scene features in the central and peripheral visual fields, respectively, results in the formation of a hierarchical cognitive map for object-place associations. Surprisingly, it is possible for such a complex memory structure to be formed in a few seconds. In this paper, we evaluate the memory retrieval of object-place associations in the hierarchical network formed by theta phase precession. The results show that multiple object-place associations can be retrieved with the initial cue of a scene input. Importantly, according to the wide-to-narrow unidirectional connections among scene units, the spatial area for object-place retrieval can be controlled by the spatial area of the initial cue input. These results indicate that the hierarchical cognitive maps have computational advantages on a spatial-area selective retrieval of multiple object-place associations. Theta phase precession dynamics is suggested as a fundamental neural mechanism of the human cognitive map.

Hierarchical drivers of reef-fish metacommunity structure.

PubMed

MacNeil, M Aaron; Graham, Nicholas A J; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Kulbicki, Michel; Galzin, René; Harmelin-Vivien, Mireille; Rushton, Steven P

2009-01-01

Coral reefs are highly complex ecological systems, where multiple processes interact across scales in space and time to create assemblages of exceptionally high biodiversity. Despite the increasing frequency of hierarchically structured sampling programs used in coral-reef science, little progress has been made in quantifying the relative importance of processes operating across multiple scales. The vast majority of reef studies are conducted, or at least analyzed, at a single spatial scale, ignoring the implicitly hierarchical structure of the overall system in favor of small-scale experiments or large-scale observations. Here we demonstrate how alpha (mean local number of species), beta diversity (degree of species dissimilarity among local sites), and gamma diversity (overall species richness) vary with spatial scale, and using a hierarchical, information-theoretic approach, we evaluate the relative importance of site-, reef-, and atoll-level processes driving the fish metacommunity structure among 10 atolls in French Polynesia. Process-based models, representing well-established hypotheses about drivers of reef-fish community structure, were assembled into a candidate set of 12 hierarchical linear models. Variation in fish abundance, biomass, and species richness were unevenly distributed among transect, reef, and atoll levels, establishing the relative contribution of variation at these spatial scales to the structure of the metacommunity. Reef-fish biomass, species richness, and the abundance of most functional-groups corresponded primarily with transect-level habitat diversity and atoll-lagoon size, whereas detritivore and grazer abundances were largely correlated with potential covariates of larval dispersal. Our findings show that (1) within-transect and among-atoll factors primarily drive the relationship between alpha and gamma diversity in this reef-fish metacommunity; (2) habitat is the primary correlate with reef-fish metacommunity structure at multiple spatial scales; and (3) inter-atoll connectedness was poorly correlated with the nonrandom clustering of reef-fish species. These results demonstrate the importance of modeling hierarchical data and processes in understanding reef-fish metacommunity structure.

Hierarchical Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process Models for Large Geostatistical Datasets.

PubMed

Datta, Abhirup; Banerjee, Sudipto; Finley, Andrew O; Gelfand, Alan E

2016-01-01

Spatial process models for analyzing geostatistical data entail computations that become prohibitive as the number of spatial locations become large. This article develops a class of highly scalable nearest-neighbor Gaussian process (NNGP) models to provide fully model-based inference for large geostatistical datasets. We establish that the NNGP is a well-defined spatial process providing legitimate finite-dimensional Gaussian densities with sparse precision matrices. We embed the NNGP as a sparsity-inducing prior within a rich hierarchical modeling framework and outline how computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms can be executed without storing or decomposing large matrices. The floating point operations (flops) per iteration of this algorithm is linear in the number of spatial locations, thereby rendering substantial scalability. We illustrate the computational and inferential benefits of the NNGP over competing methods using simulation studies and also analyze forest biomass from a massive U.S. Forest Inventory dataset at a scale that precludes alternative dimension-reducing methods. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Hierarchical Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process Models for Large Geostatistical Datasets

PubMed Central

Datta, Abhirup; Banerjee, Sudipto; Finley, Andrew O.; Gelfand, Alan E.

2018-01-01

Spatial process models for analyzing geostatistical data entail computations that become prohibitive as the number of spatial locations become large. This article develops a class of highly scalable nearest-neighbor Gaussian process (NNGP) models to provide fully model-based inference for large geostatistical datasets. We establish that the NNGP is a well-defined spatial process providing legitimate finite-dimensional Gaussian densities with sparse precision matrices. We embed the NNGP as a sparsity-inducing prior within a rich hierarchical modeling framework and outline how computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms can be executed without storing or decomposing large matrices. The floating point operations (flops) per iteration of this algorithm is linear in the number of spatial locations, thereby rendering substantial scalability. We illustrate the computational and inferential benefits of the NNGP over competing methods using simulation studies and also analyze forest biomass from a massive U.S. Forest Inventory dataset at a scale that precludes alternative dimension-reducing methods. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. PMID:29720777

A spatial analysis of hierarchical waste transport structures under growing demand.

PubMed

Tanguy, Audrey; Glaus, Mathias; Laforest, Valérie; Villot, Jonathan; Hausler, Robert

2016-10-01

The design of waste management systems rarely accounts for the spatio-temporal evolution of the demand. However, recent studies suggest that this evolution affects the planning of waste management activities like the choice and location of treatment facilities. As a result, the transport structure could also be affected by these changes. The objective of this paper is to study the influence of the spatio-temporal evolution of the demand on the strategic planning of a waste transport structure. More particularly this study aims at evaluating the effect of varying spatial parameters on the economic performance of hierarchical structures (with one transfer station). To this end, three consecutive generations of three different spatial distributions were tested for hierarchical and non-hierarchical transport structures based on costs minimization. Results showed that a hierarchical structure is economically viable for large and clustered spatial distributions. The distance parameter was decisive but the loading ratio of trucks and the formation of clusters of sources also impacted the attractiveness of the transfer station. Thus the territories' morphology should influence strategies as regards to the installation of transfer stations. The use of spatial-explicit tools such as the transport model presented in this work that take into account the territory's evolution are needed to help waste managers in the strategic planning of waste transport structures. © The Author(s) 2016.

LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Bradford, John B.; Kolka, Randall K.; Birdsey, Richard A.; Ryan, Michael G.

2015-01-01

Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both residual spatial dependence and non-stationarity of model covariates through the introduction of spatial random effects. We explored this objective using four forest inventory datasets that are part of the North American Carbon Program, each comprising point-referenced measures of above-ground forest biomass and discrete LiDAR. For each dataset, we considered at least five regression model specifications of varying complexity. Models were assessed based on goodness of fit criteria and predictive performance using a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. Results showed that the addition of spatial random effects to the regression model intercept improved fit and predictive performance in the presence of substantial residual spatial dependence. Additionally, in some cases, allowing either some or all regression slope parameters to vary spatially, via the addition of spatial random effects, further improved model fit and predictive performance. In other instances, models showed improved fit but decreased predictive performance—indicating over-fitting and underscoring the need for cross-validation to assess predictive ability. The proposed Bayesian modeling framework provided access to pixel-level posterior predictive distributions that were useful for uncertainty mapping, diagnosing spatial extrapolation issues, revealing missing model covariates, and discovering locally significant parameters.

Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology: The analysis of data from populations, metapopulations and communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, Robert M.

2008-01-01

A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods. This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures. The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution * abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling * capture-recapture models with individual effects * spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods * population and metapopulation dynamic models * models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics.

A spectral-spatial-dynamic hierarchical Bayesian (SSD-HB) model for estimating soybean yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazama, Yoriko; Kujirai, Toshihiro

2014-10-01

A method called a "spectral-spatial-dynamic hierarchical-Bayesian (SSD-HB) model," which can deal with many parameters (such as spectral and weather information all together) by reducing the occurrence of multicollinearity, is proposed. Experiments conducted on soybean yields in Brazil fields with a RapidEye satellite image indicate that the proposed SSD-HB model can predict soybean yield with a higher degree of accuracy than other estimation methods commonly used in remote-sensing applications. In the case of the SSD-HB model, the mean absolute error between estimated yield of the target area and actual yield is 0.28 t/ha, compared to 0.34 t/ha when conventional PLS regression was applied, showing the potential effectiveness of the proposed model.

On the use of a PM2.5 exposure simulator to explain birthweight

PubMed Central

Berrocal, Veronica J.; Gelfand, Alan E.; Holland, David M.; Burke, Janet; Miranda, Marie Lynn

2010-01-01

In relating pollution to birth outcomes, maternal exposure has usually been described using monitoring data. Such characterization provides a misrepresentation of exposure as it (i) does not take into account the spatial misalignment between an individual’s residence and monitoring sites, and (ii) it ignores the fact that individuals spend most of their time indoors and typically in more than one location. In this paper, we break with previous studies by using a stochastic simulator to describe personal exposure (to particulate matter) and then relate simulated exposures at the individual level to the health outcome (birthweight) rather than aggregating to a selected spatial unit. We propose a hierarchical model that, at the first stage, specifies a linear relationship between birthweight and personal exposure, adjusting for individual risk factors and introduces random spatial effects for the census tract of maternal residence. At the second stage, our hierarchical model specifies the distribution of each individual’s personal exposure using the empirical distribution yielded by the stochastic simulator as well as a model for the spatial random effects. We have applied our framework to analyze birthweight data from 14 counties in North Carolina in years 2001 and 2002. We investigate whether there are certain aspects and time windows of exposure that are more detrimental to birthweight by building different exposure metrics which we incorporate, one by one, in our hierarchical model. To assess the difference in relating ambient exposure to birthweight versus personal exposure to birthweight, we compare estimates of the effect of air pollution obtained from hierarchical models that linearly relate ambient exposure and birthweight versus those obtained from our modeling framework. Our analysis does not show a significant effect of PM2.5 on birthweight for reasons which we discuss. However, our modeling framework serves as a template for analyzing the relationship between personal exposure and longer term health endpoints. PMID:21691413

Systems view on spatial planning and perception based on invariants in agent-environment dynamics

PubMed Central

Mettler, Bérénice; Kong, Zhaodan; Li, Bin; Andersh, Jonathan

2015-01-01

Modeling agile and versatile spatial behavior remains a challenging task, due to the intricate coupling of planning, control, and perceptual processes. Previous results have shown that humans plan and organize their guidance behavior by exploiting patterns in the interactions between agent or organism and the environment. These patterns, described under the concept of Interaction Patterns (IPs), capture invariants arising from equivalences and symmetries in the interaction with the environment, as well as effects arising from intrinsic properties of human control and guidance processes, such as perceptual guidance mechanisms. The paper takes a systems' perspective, considering the IP as a unit of organization, and builds on its properties to present a hierarchical model that delineates the planning, control, and perceptual processes and their integration. The model's planning process is further elaborated by showing that the IP can be abstracted, using spatial time-to-go functions. The perceptual processes are elaborated from the hierarchical model. The paper provides experimental support for the model's ability to predict the spatial organization of behavior and the perceptual processes. PMID:25628524

The Voronoi spatio-temporal data structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mioc, Darka

2002-04-01

Current GIS models cannot integrate the temporal dimension of spatial data easily. Indeed, current GISs do not support incremental (local) addition and deletion of spatial objects, and they can not support the temporal evolution of spatial data. Spatio-temporal facilities would be very useful in many GIS applications: harvesting and forest planning, cadastre, urban and regional planning, and emergency planning. The spatio-temporal model that can overcome these problems is based on a topological model---the Voronoi data structure. Voronoi diagrams are irregular tessellations of space, that adapt to spatial objects and therefore they are a synthesis of raster and vector spatial data models. The main advantage of the Voronoi data structure is its local and sequential map updates, which allows us to automatically record each event and performed map updates within the system. These map updates are executed through map construction commands that are composed of atomic actions (geometric algorithms for addition, deletion, and motion of spatial objects) on the dynamic Voronoi data structure. The formalization of map commands led to the development of a spatial language comprising a set of atomic operations or constructs on spatial primitives (points and lines), powerful enough to define the complex operations. This resulted in a new formal model for spatio-temporal change representation, where each update is uniquely characterized by the numbers of newly created and inactivated Voronoi regions. This is used for the extension of the model towards the hierarchical Voronoi data structure. In this model, spatio-temporal changes induced by map updates are preserved in a hierarchical data structure that combines events and corresponding changes in topology. This hierarchical Voronoi data structure has an implicit time ordering of events visible through changes in topology, and it is equivalent to an event structure that can support temporal data without precise temporal information. This formal model of spatio-temporal change representation is currently applied to retroactive map updates and visualization of map evolution. It offers new possibilities in the domains of temporal GIS, transaction processing, spatio-temporal queries, spatio-temporal analysis, map animation and map visualization.

Modeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bled, Florent; Sauer, John R.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Doherty, Paul; Royle, J. Andy

2013-01-01

Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

Spatial occupancy models for large data sets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Devin S.; Conn, Paul B.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Ray, Justina C.; Pond, Bruce A.

2013-01-01

Since its development, occupancy modeling has become a popular and useful tool for ecologists wishing to learn about the dynamics of species occurrence over time and space. Such models require presence–absence data to be collected at spatially indexed survey units. However, only recently have researchers recognized the need to correct for spatially induced overdisperison by explicitly accounting for spatial autocorrelation in occupancy probability. Previous efforts to incorporate such autocorrelation have largely focused on logit-normal formulations for occupancy, with spatial autocorrelation induced by a random effect within a hierarchical modeling framework. Although useful, computational time generally limits such an approach to relatively small data sets, and there are often problems with algorithm instability, yielding unsatisfactory results. Further, recent research has revealed a hidden form of multicollinearity in such applications, which may lead to parameter bias if not explicitly addressed. Combining several techniques, we present a unifying hierarchical spatial occupancy model specification that is particularly effective over large spatial extents. This approach employs a probit mixture framework for occupancy and can easily accommodate a reduced-dimensional spatial process to resolve issues with multicollinearity and spatial confounding while improving algorithm convergence. Using open-source software, we demonstrate this new model specification using a case study involving occupancy of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) over a set of 1080 survey units spanning a large contiguous region (108 000 km2) in northern Ontario, Canada. Overall, the combination of a more efficient specification and open-source software allows for a facile and stable implementation of spatial occupancy models for large data sets.

Exploring the Specifications of Spatial Adjacencies and Weights in Bayesian Spatial Modeling with Intrinsic Conditional Autoregressive Priors in a Small-area Study of Fall Injuries

PubMed Central

Law, Jane

2016-01-01

Intrinsic conditional autoregressive modeling in a Bayeisan hierarchical framework has been increasingly applied in small-area ecological studies. This study explores the specifications of spatial structure in this Bayesian framework in two aspects: adjacency, i.e., the set of neighbor(s) for each area; and (spatial) weight for each pair of neighbors. Our analysis was based on a small-area study of falling injuries among people age 65 and older in Ontario, Canada, that was aimed to estimate risks and identify risk factors of such falls. In the case study, we observed incorrect adjacencies information caused by deficiencies in the digital map itself. Further, when equal weights was replaced by weights based on a variable of expected count, the range of estimated risks increased, the number of areas with probability of estimated risk greater than one at different probability thresholds increased, and model fit improved. More importantly, significance of a risk factor diminished. Further research to thoroughly investigate different methods of variable weights; quantify the influence of specifications of spatial weights; and develop strategies for better defining spatial structure of a map in small-area analysis in Bayesian hierarchical spatial modeling is recommended. PMID:29546147

When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Powell, James A.

2017-01-01

Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.

Scaling local species-habitat relations to the larger landscape with a hierarchical spatial count model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, W.E.; Knutson, M.G.

2007-01-01

Much of what is known about avian species-habitat relations has been derived from studies of birds at local scales. It is entirely unclear whether the relations observed at these scales translate to the larger landscape in a predictable linear fashion. We derived habitat models and mapped predicted abundances for three forest bird species of eastern North America using bird counts, environmental variables, and hierarchical models applied at three spatial scales. Our purpose was to understand habitat associations at multiple spatial scales and create predictive abundance maps for purposes of conservation planning at a landscape scale given the constraint that the variables used in this exercise were derived from local-level studies. Our models indicated a substantial influence of landscape context for all species, many of which were counter to reported associations at finer spatial extents. We found land cover composition provided the greatest contribution to the relative explained variance in counts for all three species; spatial structure was second in importance. No single spatial scale dominated any model, indicating that these species are responding to factors at multiple spatial scales. For purposes of conservation planning, areas of predicted high abundance should be investigated to evaluate the conservation potential of the landscape in their general vicinity. In addition, the models and spatial patterns of abundance among species suggest locations where conservation actions may benefit more than one species. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Hierarchical additive modeling of nonlinear association with spatial correlations--an application to relate alcohol outlet density and neighborhood assault rates.

PubMed

Yu, Qingzhao; Li, Bin; Scribner, Richard Allen

2009-06-30

Previous studies have suggested a link between alcohol outlets and assaults. In this paper, we explore the effects of alcohol availability on assaults at the census tract level over time. In addition, we use a natural experiment to check whether a sudden loss of alcohol outlets is associated with deeper decreasing in assault violence. Several features of the data raise statistical challenges: (1) the association between covariates (for example, the alcohol outlet density of each census tract) and the assault rates may be complex and therefore cannot be described using a linear model without covariates transformation, (2) the covariates may be highly correlated with each other, (3) there are a number of observations that have missing inputs, and (4) there is spatial association in assault rates at the census tract level. We propose a hierarchical additive model, where the nonlinear correlations and the complex interaction effects are modeled using the multiple additive regression trees and the residual spatial association in the assault rates that cannot be explained in the model are smoothed using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) method. We develop a two-stage algorithm that connects the nonparametric trees with CAR to look for important covariates associated with the assault rates, while taking into account the spatial association of assault rates in adjacent census tracts. The proposed method is applied to the Los Angeles assault data (1990-1999). To assess the efficiency of the method, the results are compared with those obtained from a hierarchical linear model. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayesian Hierarchical Model Characterization of Model Error in Ocean Data Assimilation and Forecasts

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

proof-of-concept results comparing a BHM surface wind ensemble with the increments in the surface momentum flux control vector in a four-dimensional...Surface   Momentum  Flux  Ensembles  from  Summaries  of  BHM  Winds  (Mediterranean)   include  ocean  current  effect   Td...Bayesian Hierarchical Model to provide surface momentum flux ensembles. 3 Figure 2: Domain of interest : squares indicate spatial locations where

Modeling stream network-scale variation in Coho salmon overwinter survival and smolt size

Treesearch

Joseph L. Ebersole; Mike E. Colvin; Parker J. Wigington; Scott G. Leibowitz; Joan P. Baker; Jana E. Compton; Bruce A. Miller; Michael A. Carins; Bruce P. Hansen; Henry R. La Vigne

2009-01-01

We used multiple regression and hierarchical mixed-effects models to examine spatial patterns of overwinter survival and size at smolting in juvenile coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch in relation to habitat attributes across an extensive stream network in southwestern Oregon over 3 years. Contributing basin area explained the majority of spatial...

Unifying models of dialect spread and extinction using surface tension dynamics

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

We provide a unified mathematical explanation of two classical forms of spatial linguistic spread. The wave model describes the radiation of linguistic change outwards from a central focus. Changes can also jump between population centres in a process known as hierarchical diffusion. It has recently been proposed that the spatial evolution of dialects can be understood using surface tension at linguistic boundaries. Here we show that the inclusion of long-range interactions in the surface tension model generates both wave-like spread, and hierarchical diffusion, and that it is surface tension that is the dominant effect in deciding the stable distribution of dialect patterns. We generalize the model to allow population mixing which can induce shrinkage of linguistic domains, or destroy dialect regions from within. PMID:29410847

Franz Selety (1893-1933?). His cosmological investigations and the correspondence with Einstein (German Title: Franz Selety (1893-1933?). Seine kosmologischen Arbeiten und der Briefwechsel mit Einstein)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Tobias

In 1922, Franz Selety, university-bred philosopher and self-educated physicist and cosmologist, developed a molecular hierarchical, spatially infinite, Newtonian cosmological model. His considerations were based on his earlier philosophical work published in 1914 as well as on the early correspondence with Einstein in 1917. Historically, the roots of hierarchical models can be seen in 18th century investigations by Thomas Wright of Durham, Immanuel Kant and Johann Heinrich Lambert. Those investigations were taken up by Edmund Fournier d'Albe and Carl Charlier at the beginning of the 20th century. Selety's cosmological model was criticized by Einstein mainly due to its spatial infiniteness which in Einstein's opinion seemed to contradict Mach's principle. This criticism sheds light on Einstein's conviction that with his first cosmological model, namely the static, spatially infinite, though unbounded Einstein Universe of 1917, the appropriate cosmological theory already had been established.

A Bayesian hierarchical model with spatial variable selection: the effect of weather on insurance claims

PubMed Central

Scheel, Ida; Ferkingstad, Egil; Frigessi, Arnoldo; Haug, Ola; Hinnerichsen, Mikkel; Meze-Hausken, Elisabeth

2013-01-01

Climate change will affect the insurance industry. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical statistical approach to explain and predict insurance losses due to weather events at a local geographic scale. The number of weather-related insurance claims is modelled by combining generalized linear models with spatially smoothed variable selection. Using Gibbs sampling and reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, this model is fitted on daily weather and insurance data from each of the 319 municipalities which constitute southern and central Norway for the period 1997–2006. Precise out-of-sample predictions validate the model. Our results show interesting regional patterns in the effect of different weather covariates. In addition to being useful for insurance pricing, our model can be used for short-term predictions based on weather forecasts and for long-term predictions based on downscaled climate models. PMID:23396890

Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for alcohol availability, drug "hot spots" and violent crime.

PubMed

Zhu, Li; Gorman, Dennis M; Horel, Scott

2006-12-07

Ecologic studies have shown a relationship between alcohol outlet densities, illicit drug use and violence. The present study examined this relationship in the City of Houston, Texas, using a sample of 439 census tracts. Neighborhood sociostructural covariates, alcohol outlet density, drug crime density and violent crime data were collected for the year 2000, and analyzed using hierarchical Bayesian models. Model selection was accomplished by applying the Deviance Information Criterion. The counts of violent crime in each census tract were modelled as having a conditional Poisson distribution. Four neighbourhood explanatory variables were identified using principal component analysis. The best fitted model was selected as the one considering both unstructured and spatial dependence random effects. The results showed that drug-law violation explained a greater amount of variance in violent crime rates than alcohol outlet densities. The relative risk for drug-law violation was 2.49 and that for alcohol outlet density was 1.16. Of the neighbourhood sociostructural covariates, males of age 15 to 24 showed an effect on violence, with a 16% decrease in relative risk for each increase the size of its standard deviation. Both unstructured heterogeneity random effect and spatial dependence need to be included in the model. The analysis presented suggests that activity around illicit drug markets is more strongly associated with violent crime than is alcohol outlet density. Unique among the ecological studies in this field, the present study not only shows the direction and magnitude of impact of neighbourhood sociostructural covariates as well as alcohol and illicit drug activities in a neighbourhood, it also reveals the importance of applying hierarchical Bayesian models in this research field as both spatial dependence and heterogeneity random effects need to be considered simultaneously.

ML-Space: Hybrid Spatial Gillespie and Particle Simulation of Multi-Level Rule-Based Models in Cell Biology.

PubMed

Bittig, Arne T; Uhrmacher, Adelinde M

2017-01-01

Spatio-temporal dynamics of cellular processes can be simulated at different levels of detail, from (deterministic) partial differential equations via the spatial Stochastic Simulation algorithm to tracking Brownian trajectories of individual particles. We present a spatial simulation approach for multi-level rule-based models, which includes dynamically hierarchically nested cellular compartments and entities. Our approach ML-Space combines discrete compartmental dynamics, stochastic spatial approaches in discrete space, and particles moving in continuous space. The rule-based specification language of ML-Space supports concise and compact descriptions of models and to adapt the spatial resolution of models easily.

Planning paths through a spatial hierarchy - Eliminating stair-stepping effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slack, Marc G.

1989-01-01

Stair-stepping effects are a result of the loss of spatial continuity resulting from the decomposition of space into a grid. This paper presents a path planning algorithm which eliminates stair-stepping effects induced by the grid-based spatial representation. The algorithm exploits a hierarchical spatial model to efficiently plan paths for a mobile robot operating in dynamic domains. The spatial model and path planning algorithm map to a parallel machine, allowing the system to operate incrementally, thereby accounting for unexpected events in the operating space.

Estimating thermal regimes of bull trout and assessing the potential effects of climate warming on critical habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.; McGlynn, Brian L.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.

2013-01-01

Understanding the vulnerability of aquatic species and habitats under climate change is critical for conservation and management of freshwater systems. Climate warming is predicted to increase water temperatures in freshwater ecosystems worldwide, yet few studies have developed spatially explicit modelling tools for understanding the potential impacts. We parameterized a nonspatial model, a spatial flow-routed model, and a spatial hierarchical model to predict August stream temperatures (22-m resolution) throughout the Flathead River Basin, USA and Canada. Model comparisons showed that the spatial models performed significantly better than the nonspatial model, explaining the spatial autocorrelation found between sites. The spatial hierarchical model explained 82% of the variation in summer mean (August) stream temperatures and was used to estimate thermal regimes for threatened bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) habitats, one of the most thermally sensitive coldwater species in western North America. The model estimated summer thermal regimes of spawning and rearing habitats at <13 C° and foraging, migrating, and overwintering habitats at <14 C°. To illustrate the useful application of such a model, we simulated climate warming scenarios to quantify potential loss of critical habitats under forecasted climatic conditions. As air and water temperatures continue to increase, our model simulations show that lower portions of the Flathead River Basin drainage (foraging, migrating, and overwintering habitat) may become thermally unsuitable and headwater streams (spawning and rearing) may become isolated because of increasing thermal fragmentation during summer. Model results can be used to focus conservation and management efforts on populations of concern, by identifying critical habitats and assessing thermal changes at a local scale.

Hierarchical analysis of spatial pattern and processes of Douglas-fir forests. Ph.D. Thesis, 10 Sep. 1991 Abstract Only

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bradshaw, G. A.

1995-01-01

There has been an increased interest in the quantification of pattern in ecological systems over the past years. This interest is motivated by the desire to construct valid models which extend across many scales. Spatial methods must quantify pattern, discriminate types of pattern, and relate hierarchical phenomena across scales. Wavelet analysis is introduced as a method to identify spatial structure in ecological transect data. The main advantage of the wavelet transform over other methods is its ability to preserve and display hierarchical information while allowing for pattern decomposition. Two applications of wavelet analysis are illustrated, as a means to: (1) quantify known spatial patterns in Douglas-fir forests at several scales, and (2) construct spatially-explicit hypotheses regarding pattern generating mechanisms. Application of the wavelet variance, derived from the wavelet transform, is developed for forest ecosystem analysis to obtain additional insight into spatially-explicit data. Specifically, the resolution capabilities of the wavelet variance are compared to the semi-variogram and Fourier power spectra for the description of spatial data using a set of one-dimensional stationary and non-stationary processes. The wavelet cross-covariance function is derived from the wavelet transform and introduced as a alternative method for the analysis of multivariate spatial data of understory vegetation and canopy in Douglas-fir forests of the western Cascades of Oregon.

Relating mesocarnivore relative abundance to anthropogenic land-use with a hierarchical spatial count model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crimmins, Shawn M.; Walleser, Liza R.; Hertel, Dan R.; McKann, Patrick C.; Rohweder, Jason J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

2016-01-01

There is growing need to develop models of spatial patterns in animal abundance, yet comparatively few examples of such models exist. This is especially true in situations where the abundance of one species may inhibit that of another, such as the intensively-farmed landscape of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the central United States, where waterfowl production is largely constrained by mesocarnivore nest predation. We used a hierarchical Bayesian approach to relate the distribution of various land-cover types to the relative abundances of four mesocarnivores in the PPR: coyote Canis latrans, raccoon Procyon lotor, red fox Vulpes vulpes, and striped skunk Mephitis mephitis. We developed models for each species at multiple spatial resolutions (41.4 km2, 10.4 km2, and 2.6 km2) to address different ecological and management-related questions. Model results for each species were similar irrespective of resolution. We found that the amount of row-crop agriculture was nearly ubiquitous in our best models, exhibiting a positive relationship with relative abundance for each species. The amount of native grassland land-cover was positively associated with coyote and raccoon relative abundance, but generally absent from models for red fox and skunk. Red fox and skunk were positively associated with each other, suggesting potential niche overlap. We found no evidence that coyote abundance limited that of other mesocarnivore species, as might be expected under a hypothesis of mesopredator release. The relationships between relative abundance and land-cover types were similar across spatial resolutions. Our results indicated that mesocarnivores in the PPR are most likely to occur in portions of the landscape with large amounts of agricultural land-cover. Further, our results indicated that track-survey data can be used in a hierarchical framework to gain inferences regarding spatial patterns in animal relative abundance.

A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT HIERARCHICAL APPROACH TO MODELING COMPLEX ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS. (R827676)

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological systems are generally considered among the most complex because they are characterized by a large number of diverse components, nonlinear interactions, scale multiplicity, and spatial heterogeneity. Hierarchy theory, as well as empirical evidence, suggests that comp...

Multi-Scale and Object-Oriented Analysis for Mountain Terrain Segmentation and Geomorphological Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marston, B. K.; Bishop, M. P.; Shroder, J. F.

2009-12-01

Digital terrain analysis of mountain topography is widely utilized for mapping landforms, assessing the role of surface processes in landscape evolution, and estimating the spatial variation of erosion. Numerous geomorphometry techniques exist to characterize terrain surface parameters, although their utility to characterize the spatial hierarchical structure of the topography and permit an assessment of the erosion/tectonic impact on the landscape is very limited due to scale and data integration issues. To address this problem, we apply scale-dependent geomorphometric and object-oriented analyses to characterize the hierarchical spatial structure of mountain topography. Specifically, we utilized a high resolution digital elevation model to characterize complex topography in the Shimshal Valley in the Western Himalaya of Pakistan. To accomplish this, we generate terrain objects (geomorphological features and landform) including valley floors and walls, drainage basins, drainage network, ridge network, slope facets, and elemental forms based upon curvature. Object-oriented analysis was used to characterize object properties accounting for object size, shape, and morphometry. The spatial overlay and integration of terrain objects at various scales defines the nature of the hierarchical organization. Our results indicate that variations in the spatial complexity of the terrain hierarchical organization is related to the spatio-temporal influence of surface processes and landscape evolution dynamics. Terrain segmentation and the integration of multi-scale terrain information permits further assessment of process domains and erosion, tectonic impact potential, and natural hazard potential. We demonstrate this with landform mapping and geomorphological assessment examples.

unmarked: An R package for fitting hierarchical models of wildlife occurrence and abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fiske, Ian J.; Chandler, Richard B.

2011-01-01

Ecological research uses data collection techniques that are prone to substantial and unique types of measurement error to address scientific questions about species abundance and distribution. These data collection schemes include a number of survey methods in which unmarked individuals are counted, or determined to be present, at spatially- referenced sites. Examples include site occupancy sampling, repeated counts, distance sampling, removal sampling, and double observer sampling. To appropriately analyze these data, hierarchical models have been developed to separately model explanatory variables of both a latent abundance or occurrence process and a conditional detection process. Because these models have a straightforward interpretation paralleling mechanisms under which the data arose, they have recently gained immense popularity. The common hierarchical structure of these models is well-suited for a unified modeling interface. The R package unmarked provides such a unified modeling framework, including tools for data exploration, model fitting, model criticism, post-hoc analysis, and model comparison.

Towards a hierarchical optimization modeling framework for the evaluation and construction of spatially targeted incentive policies to promote green infrastructure (GI) amidst budgetary, compliance and GI-effectiveness uncertainties

EPA Science Inventory

Background:Bilevel optimization has been recognized as a 2-player Stackelberg game where players are represented as leaders and followers and each pursue their own set of objectives. Hierarchical optimization problems, which are a generalization of bilevel, are especially difficu...

Program SPACECAP: software for estimating animal density using spatially explicit capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hines, James E.; Singh, Pallavi; Jathanna, Devcharan; Kumar, N. Samba; Karanth, K. Ullas

2012-01-01

1. The advent of spatially explicit capture-recapture models is changing the way ecologists analyse capture-recapture data. However, the advantages offered by these new models are not fully exploited because they can be difficult to implement. 2. To address this need, we developed a user-friendly software package, created within the R programming environment, called SPACECAP. This package implements Bayesian spatially explicit hierarchical models to analyse spatial capture-recapture data. 3. Given that a large number of field biologists prefer software with graphical user interfaces for analysing their data, SPACECAP is particularly useful as a tool to increase the adoption of Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture methods in practice.

Hierarchical clustering using correlation metric and spatial continuity constraint

DOEpatents

Stork, Christopher L.; Brewer, Luke N.

2012-10-02

Large data sets are analyzed by hierarchical clustering using correlation as a similarity measure. This provides results that are superior to those obtained using a Euclidean distance similarity measure. A spatial continuity constraint may be applied in hierarchical clustering analysis of images.

Epitaxial Growth of Hetero-Ln-MOF Hierarchical Single Crystals for Domain- and Orientation-Controlled Multicolor Luminescence 3D Coding Capability.

PubMed

Pan, Mei; Zhu, Yi-Xuan; Wu, Kai; Chen, Ling; Hou, Ya-Jun; Yin, Shao-Yun; Wang, Hai-Ping; Fan, Ya-Nan; Su, Cheng-Yong

2017-11-13

Core-shell or striped heteroatomic lanthanide metal-organic framework hierarchical single crystals were obtained by liquid-phase anisotropic epitaxial growth, maintaining identical periodic organization while simultaneously exhibiting spatially segregated structure. Different types of domain and orientation-controlled multicolor photophysical models are presented, which show either visually distinguishable or visible/near infrared (NIR) emissive colors. This provides a new bottom-up strategy toward the design of hierarchical molecular systems, offering high-throughput and multiplexed luminescence color tunability and readability. The unique capability of combining spectroscopic coding with 3D (three-dimensional) microscale spatial coding is established, providing potential applications in anti-counterfeiting, color barcoding, and other types of integrated and miniaturized optoelectronic materials and devices. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Hierarchical models of animal abundance and occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, R.M.

2006-01-01

Much of animal ecology is devoted to studies of abundance and occurrence of species, based on surveys of spatially referenced sample units. These surveys frequently yield sparse counts that are contaminated by imperfect detection, making direct inference about abundance or occurrence based on observational data infeasible. This article describes a flexible hierarchical modeling framework for estimation and inference about animal abundance and occurrence from survey data that are subject to imperfect detection. Within this framework, we specify models of abundance and detectability of animals at the level of the local populations defined by the sample units. Information at the level of the local population is aggregated by specifying models that describe variation in abundance and detection among sites. We describe likelihood-based and Bayesian methods for estimation and inference under the resulting hierarchical model. We provide two examples of the application of hierarchical models to animal survey data, the first based on removal counts of stream fish and the second based on avian quadrat counts. For both examples, we provide a Bayesian analysis of the models using the software WinBUGS.

Hierarchical species distribution models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.

2016-01-01

Determining the distribution pattern of a species is important to increase scientific knowledge, inform management decisions, and conserve biodiversity. To infer spatial and temporal patterns, species distribution models have been developed for use with many sampling designs and types of data. Recently, it has been shown that count, presence-absence, and presence-only data can be conceptualized as arising from a point process distribution. Therefore, it is important to understand properties of the point process distribution. We examine how the hierarchical species distribution modeling framework has been used to incorporate a wide array of regression and theory-based components while accounting for the data collection process and making use of auxiliary information. The hierarchical modeling framework allows us to demonstrate how several commonly used species distribution models can be derived from the point process distribution, highlight areas of potential overlap between different models, and suggest areas where further research is needed.

Spatial patterns of breeding success of grizzly bears derived from hierarchical multistate models.

PubMed

Fisher, Jason T; Wheatley, Matthew; Mackenzie, Darryl

2014-10-01

Conservation programs often manage populations indirectly through the landscapes in which they live. Empirically, linking reproductive success with landscape structure and anthropogenic change is a first step in understanding and managing the spatial mechanisms that affect reproduction, but this link is not sufficiently informed by data. Hierarchical multistate occupancy models can forge these links by estimating spatial patterns of reproductive success across landscapes. To illustrate, we surveyed the occurrence of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Alberta, Canada. We deployed camera traps for 6 weeks at 54 surveys sites in different types of land cover. We used hierarchical multistate occupancy models to estimate probability of detection, grizzly bear occupancy, and probability of reproductive success at each site. Grizzly bear occupancy varied among cover types and was greater in herbaceous alpine ecotones than in low-elevation wetlands or mid-elevation conifer forests. The conditional probability of reproductive success given grizzly bear occupancy was 30% (SE = 0.14). Grizzly bears with cubs had a higher probability of detection than grizzly bears without cubs, but sites were correctly classified as being occupied by breeding females 49% of the time based on raw data and thus would have been underestimated by half. Repeated surveys and multistate modeling reduced the probability of misclassifying sites occupied by breeders as unoccupied to <2%. The probability of breeding grizzly bear occupancy varied across the landscape. Those patches with highest probabilities of breeding occupancy-herbaceous alpine ecotones-were small and highly dispersed and are projected to shrink as treelines advance due to climate warming. Understanding spatial correlates in breeding distribution is a key requirement for species conservation in the face of climate change and can help identify priorities for landscape management and protection. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Socio-Ecological Risk Factors for Prime-Age Adult Death in Two Coastal Areas of Vietnam

PubMed Central

Kim, Deok Ryun; Ali, Mohammad; Thiem, Vu Dinh; Wierzba, Thomas F.

2014-01-01

Background Hierarchical spatial models enable the geographic and ecological analysis of health data thereby providing useful information for designing effective health interventions. In this study, we used a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model to evaluate mortality data in Vietnam. The model enabled identification of socio-ecological risk factors and generation of risk maps to better understand the causes and geographic implications of prime-age (15 to less than 45 years) adult death. Methods and Findings The study was conducted in two sites: Nha Trang and Hue in Vietnam. The study areas were split into 500×500 meter cells to define neighborhoods. We first extracted socio-demographic data from population databases of the two sites, and then aggregated the data by neighborhood. We used spatial hierarchical model that borrows strength from neighbors for evaluating risk factors and for creating spatially smoothed risk map after adjusting for neighborhood level covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure was used to estimate the parameters. Male mortality was more than twice the female mortality. The rates also varied by age and sex. The most frequent cause of mortality was traffic accidents and drowning for men and traffic accidents and suicide for women. Lower education of household heads in the neighborhood was an important risk factor for increased mortality. The mortality was highly variable in space and the socio-ecological risk factors are sensitive to study site and sex. Conclusion Our study suggests that lower education of the household head is an important predictor for prime age adult mortality. Variability in socio-ecological risk factors and in risk areas by sex make it challenging to design appropriate intervention strategies aimed at decreasing prime-age adult deaths in Vietnam. PMID:24587031

Socio-ecological risk factors for prime-age adult death in two coastal areas of Vietnam.

PubMed

Kim, Deok Ryun; Ali, Mohammad; Thiem, Vu Dinh; Wierzba, Thomas F

2014-01-01

Hierarchical spatial models enable the geographic and ecological analysis of health data thereby providing useful information for designing effective health interventions. In this study, we used a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model to evaluate mortality data in Vietnam. The model enabled identification of socio-ecological risk factors and generation of risk maps to better understand the causes and geographic implications of prime-age (15 to less than 45 years) adult death. The study was conducted in two sites: Nha Trang and Hue in Vietnam. The study areas were split into 500×500 meter cells to define neighborhoods. We first extracted socio-demographic data from population databases of the two sites, and then aggregated the data by neighborhood. We used spatial hierarchical model that borrows strength from neighbors for evaluating risk factors and for creating spatially smoothed risk map after adjusting for neighborhood level covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure was used to estimate the parameters. Male mortality was more than twice the female mortality. The rates also varied by age and sex. The most frequent cause of mortality was traffic accidents and drowning for men and traffic accidents and suicide for women. Lower education of household heads in the neighborhood was an important risk factor for increased mortality. The mortality was highly variable in space and the socio-ecological risk factors are sensitive to study site and sex. Our study suggests that lower education of the household head is an important predictor for prime age adult mortality. Variability in socio-ecological risk factors and in risk areas by sex make it challenging to design appropriate intervention strategies aimed at decreasing prime-age adult deaths in Vietnam.

A hierarchical structure for automatic meshing and adaptive FEM analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kela, Ajay; Saxena, Mukul; Perucchio, Renato

1987-01-01

A new algorithm for generating automatically, from solid models of mechanical parts, finite element meshes that are organized as spatially addressable quaternary trees (for 2-D work) or octal trees (for 3-D work) is discussed. Because such meshes are inherently hierarchical as well as spatially addressable, they permit efficient substructuring techniques to be used for both global analysis and incremental remeshing and reanalysis. The global and incremental techniques are summarized and some results from an experimental closed loop 2-D system in which meshing, analysis, error evaluation, and remeshing and reanalysis are done automatically and adaptively are presented. The implementation of 3-D work is briefly discussed.

Principles of Temporal Processing Across the Cortical Hierarchy.

PubMed

Himberger, Kevin D; Chien, Hsiang-Yun; Honey, Christopher J

2018-05-02

The world is richly structured on multiple spatiotemporal scales. In order to represent spatial structure, many machine-learning models repeat a set of basic operations at each layer of a hierarchical architecture. These iterated spatial operations - including pooling, normalization and pattern completion - enable these systems to recognize and predict spatial structure, while robust to changes in the spatial scale, contrast and noisiness of the input signal. Because our brains also process temporal information that is rich and occurs across multiple time scales, might the brain employ an analogous set of operations for temporal information processing? Here we define a candidate set of temporal operations, and we review evidence that they are implemented in the mammalian cerebral cortex in a hierarchical manner. We conclude that multiple consecutive stages of cortical processing can be understood to perform temporal pooling, temporal normalization and temporal pattern completion. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Hierarchical spatial models for predicting tree species assemblages across large domains

Treesearch

Andrew O. Finley; Sudipto Banerjee; Ronald E. McRoberts

2009-01-01

Spatially explicit data layers of tree species assemblages, referred to as forest types or forest type groups, are a key component in large-scale assessments of forest sustainability, biodiversity, timber biomass, carbon sinks and forest health monitoring. This paper explores the utility of coupling georeferenced national forest inventory (NFI) data with readily...

MEG source localization of spatially extended generators of epileptic activity: comparing entropic and hierarchical bayesian approaches.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Rasheda Arman; Lina, Jean Marc; Kobayashi, Eliane; Grova, Christophe

2013-01-01

Localizing the generators of epileptic activity in the brain using Electro-EncephaloGraphy (EEG) or Magneto-EncephaloGraphy (MEG) signals is of particular interest during the pre-surgical investigation of epilepsy. Epileptic discharges can be detectable from background brain activity, provided they are associated with spatially extended generators. Using realistic simulations of epileptic activity, this study evaluates the ability of distributed source localization methods to accurately estimate the location of the generators and their sensitivity to the spatial extent of such generators when using MEG data. Source localization methods based on two types of realistic models have been investigated: (i) brain activity may be modeled using cortical parcels and (ii) brain activity is assumed to be locally smooth within each parcel. A Data Driven Parcellization (DDP) method was used to segment the cortical surface into non-overlapping parcels and diffusion-based spatial priors were used to model local spatial smoothness within parcels. These models were implemented within the Maximum Entropy on the Mean (MEM) and the Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) source localization frameworks. We proposed new methods in this context and compared them with other standard ones using Monte Carlo simulations of realistic MEG data involving sources of several spatial extents and depths. Detection accuracy of each method was quantified using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis and localization error metrics. Our results showed that methods implemented within the MEM framework were sensitive to all spatial extents of the sources ranging from 3 cm(2) to 30 cm(2), whatever were the number and size of the parcels defining the model. To reach a similar level of accuracy within the HB framework, a model using parcels larger than the size of the sources should be considered.

MEG Source Localization of Spatially Extended Generators of Epileptic Activity: Comparing Entropic and Hierarchical Bayesian Approaches

PubMed Central

Chowdhury, Rasheda Arman; Lina, Jean Marc; Kobayashi, Eliane; Grova, Christophe

2013-01-01

Localizing the generators of epileptic activity in the brain using Electro-EncephaloGraphy (EEG) or Magneto-EncephaloGraphy (MEG) signals is of particular interest during the pre-surgical investigation of epilepsy. Epileptic discharges can be detectable from background brain activity, provided they are associated with spatially extended generators. Using realistic simulations of epileptic activity, this study evaluates the ability of distributed source localization methods to accurately estimate the location of the generators and their sensitivity to the spatial extent of such generators when using MEG data. Source localization methods based on two types of realistic models have been investigated: (i) brain activity may be modeled using cortical parcels and (ii) brain activity is assumed to be locally smooth within each parcel. A Data Driven Parcellization (DDP) method was used to segment the cortical surface into non-overlapping parcels and diffusion-based spatial priors were used to model local spatial smoothness within parcels. These models were implemented within the Maximum Entropy on the Mean (MEM) and the Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) source localization frameworks. We proposed new methods in this context and compared them with other standard ones using Monte Carlo simulations of realistic MEG data involving sources of several spatial extents and depths. Detection accuracy of each method was quantified using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis and localization error metrics. Our results showed that methods implemented within the MEM framework were sensitive to all spatial extents of the sources ranging from 3 cm2 to 30 cm2, whatever were the number and size of the parcels defining the model. To reach a similar level of accuracy within the HB framework, a model using parcels larger than the size of the sources should be considered. PMID:23418485

Unmarked: An R package for fitting hierarchical models of wildlife occurrence and abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fiske, I.J.; Chandler, R.B.

2011-01-01

Ecological research uses data collection techniques that are prone to substantial and unique types of measurement error to address scientic questions about species abundance and distribution. These data collection schemes include a number of survey methods in which unmarked individuals are counted, or determined to be present, at spatially- referenced sites. Examples include site occupancy sampling, repeated counts, distance sampling, removal sampling, and double observer sampling. To appropriately analyze these data, hierarchical models have been developed to separately model explanatory variables of both a latent abundance or occurrence process and a conditional detection process. Because these models have a straightforward interpretation paralleling mecha- nisms under which the data arose, they have recently gained immense popularity. The common hierarchical structure of these models is well-suited for a unied modeling in- terface. The R package unmarked provides such a unied modeling framework, including tools for data exploration, model tting, model criticism, post-hoc analysis, and model comparison.

Self-Organization of Spatio-Temporal Hierarchy via Learning of Dynamic Visual Image Patterns on Action Sequences

PubMed Central

Jung, Minju; Hwang, Jungsik; Tani, Jun

2015-01-01

It is well known that the visual cortex efficiently processes high-dimensional spatial information by using a hierarchical structure. Recently, computational models that were inspired by the spatial hierarchy of the visual cortex have shown remarkable performance in image recognition. Up to now, however, most biological and computational modeling studies have mainly focused on the spatial domain and do not discuss temporal domain processing of the visual cortex. Several studies on the visual cortex and other brain areas associated with motor control support that the brain also uses its hierarchical structure as a processing mechanism for temporal information. Based on the success of previous computational models using spatial hierarchy and temporal hierarchy observed in the brain, the current report introduces a novel neural network model for the recognition of dynamic visual image patterns based solely on the learning of exemplars. This model is characterized by the application of both spatial and temporal constraints on local neural activities, resulting in the self-organization of a spatio-temporal hierarchy necessary for the recognition of complex dynamic visual image patterns. The evaluation with the Weizmann dataset in recognition of a set of prototypical human movement patterns showed that the proposed model is significantly robust in recognizing dynamically occluded visual patterns compared to other baseline models. Furthermore, an evaluation test for the recognition of concatenated sequences of those prototypical movement patterns indicated that the model is endowed with a remarkable capability for the contextual recognition of long-range dynamic visual image patterns. PMID:26147887

Self-Organization of Spatio-Temporal Hierarchy via Learning of Dynamic Visual Image Patterns on Action Sequences.

PubMed

Jung, Minju; Hwang, Jungsik; Tani, Jun

2015-01-01

It is well known that the visual cortex efficiently processes high-dimensional spatial information by using a hierarchical structure. Recently, computational models that were inspired by the spatial hierarchy of the visual cortex have shown remarkable performance in image recognition. Up to now, however, most biological and computational modeling studies have mainly focused on the spatial domain and do not discuss temporal domain processing of the visual cortex. Several studies on the visual cortex and other brain areas associated with motor control support that the brain also uses its hierarchical structure as a processing mechanism for temporal information. Based on the success of previous computational models using spatial hierarchy and temporal hierarchy observed in the brain, the current report introduces a novel neural network model for the recognition of dynamic visual image patterns based solely on the learning of exemplars. This model is characterized by the application of both spatial and temporal constraints on local neural activities, resulting in the self-organization of a spatio-temporal hierarchy necessary for the recognition of complex dynamic visual image patterns. The evaluation with the Weizmann dataset in recognition of a set of prototypical human movement patterns showed that the proposed model is significantly robust in recognizing dynamically occluded visual patterns compared to other baseline models. Furthermore, an evaluation test for the recognition of concatenated sequences of those prototypical movement patterns indicated that the model is endowed with a remarkable capability for the contextual recognition of long-range dynamic visual image patterns.

A spatial model of bird abundance as adjusted for detection probability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gorresen, P.M.; Mcmillan, G.P.; Camp, R.J.; Pratt, T.K.

2009-01-01

Modeling the spatial distribution of animals can be complicated by spatial and temporal effects (i.e. spatial autocorrelation and trends in abundance over time) and other factors such as imperfect detection probabilities and observation-related nuisance variables. Recent advances in modeling have demonstrated various approaches that handle most of these factors but which require a degree of sampling effort (e.g. replication) not available to many field studies. We present a two-step approach that addresses these challenges to spatially model species abundance. Habitat, spatial and temporal variables were handled with a Bayesian approach which facilitated modeling hierarchically structured data. Predicted abundance was subsequently adjusted to account for imperfect detection and the area effectively sampled for each species. We provide examples of our modeling approach for two endemic Hawaiian nectarivorous honeycreepers: 'i'iwi Vestiaria coccinea and 'apapane Himatione sanguinea. ?? 2009 Ecography.

The traveling salesman problem: a hierarchical model.

PubMed

Graham, S M; Joshi, A; Pizlo, Z

2000-10-01

Our review of prior literature on spatial information processing in perception, attention, and memory indicates that these cognitive functions involve similar mechanisms based on a hierarchical architecture. The present study extends the application of hierarchical models to the area of problem solving. First, we report results of an experiment in which human subjects were tested on a Euclidean traveling salesman problem (TSP) with 6 to 30 cities. The subject's solutions were either optimal or near-optimal in length and were produced in a time that was, on average, a linear function of the number of cities. Next, the performance of the subjects is compared with that of five representative artificial intelligence and operations research algorithms, that produce approximate solutions for Euclidean problems. None of these algorithms was found to be an adequate psychological model. Finally, we present a new algorithm for solving the TSP, which is based on a hierarchical pyramid architecture. The performance of this new algorithm is quite similar to the performance of the subjects.

An effective immunization strategy for airborne epidemics in modular and hierarchical social contact network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Zhichao; Ge, Yuanzheng; Luo, Lei; Duan, Hong; Qiu, Xiaogang

2015-12-01

Social contact between individuals is the chief factor for airborne epidemic transmission among the crowd. Social contact networks, which describe the contact relationships among individuals, always exhibit overlapping qualities of communities, hierarchical structure and spatial-correlated. We find that traditional global targeted immunization strategy would lose its superiority in controlling the epidemic propagation in the social contact networks with modular and hierarchical structure. Therefore, we propose a hierarchical targeted immunization strategy to settle this problem. In this novel strategy, importance of the hierarchical structure is considered. Transmission control experiments of influenza H1N1 are carried out based on a modular and hierarchical network model. Results obtained indicate that hierarchical structure of the network is more critical than the degrees of the immunized targets and the modular network layer is the most important for the epidemic propagation control. Finally, the efficacy and stability of this novel immunization strategy have been validated as well.

A hierarchical model for probabilistic independent component analysis of multi-subject fMRI studies

PubMed Central

Tang, Li

2014-01-01

Summary An important goal in fMRI studies is to decompose the observed series of brain images to identify and characterize underlying brain functional networks. Independent component analysis (ICA) has been shown to be a powerful computational tool for this purpose. Classic ICA has been successfully applied to single-subject fMRI data. The extension of ICA to group inferences in neuroimaging studies, however, is challenging due to the unavailability of a pre-specified group design matrix. Existing group ICA methods generally concatenate observed fMRI data across subjects on the temporal domain and then decompose multi-subject data in a similar manner to single-subject ICA. The major limitation of existing methods is that they ignore between-subject variability in spatial distributions of brain functional networks in group ICA. In this paper, we propose a new hierarchical probabilistic group ICA method to formally model subject-specific effects in both temporal and spatial domains when decomposing multi-subject fMRI data. The proposed method provides model-based estimation of brain functional networks at both the population and subject level. An important advantage of the hierarchical model is that it provides a formal statistical framework to investigate similarities and differences in brain functional networks across subjects, e.g., subjects with mental disorders or neurodegenerative diseases such as Parkinson’s as compared to normal subjects. We develop an EM algorithm for model estimation where both the E-step and M-step have explicit forms. We compare the performance of the proposed hierarchical model with that of two popular group ICA methods via simulation studies. We illustrate our method with application to an fMRI study of Zen meditation. PMID:24033125

Modeling stream network-scale variation in coho salmon overwinter survival and smolt size

EPA Science Inventory

We used multiple regression and hierarchical mixed-effects models to examine spatial patterns of overwinter survival and size at smolting in juvenile coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch in relation to habitat attributes across an extensive stream network in southwestern Oregon over ...

Developing a Hierarchical Model for the Spatial Analysis of PM10 Pollution Extremes in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area.

PubMed

Aguirre-Salado, Alejandro Ivan; Vaquera-Huerta, Humberto; Aguirre-Salado, Carlos Arturo; Reyes-Mora, Silvia; Olvera-Cervantes, Ana Delia; Lancho-Romero, Guillermo Arturo; Soubervielle-Montalvo, Carlos

2017-07-06

We implemented a spatial model for analysing PM 10 maxima across the Mexico City metropolitan area during the period 1995-2016. We assumed that these maxima follow a non-identical generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and modeled the trend by introducing multivariate smoothing spline functions into the probability GEV distribution. A flexible, three-stage hierarchical Bayesian approach was developed to analyse the distribution of the PM 10 maxima in space and time. We evaluated the statistical model's performance by using a simulation study. The results showed strong evidence of a positive correlation between the PM 10 maxima and the longitude and latitude. The relationship between time and the PM 10 maxima was negative, indicating a decreasing trend over time. Finally, a high risk of PM 10 maxima presenting levels above 1000 μ g/m 3 (return period: 25 yr) was observed in the northwestern region of the study area.

Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for predicting multiple forest variables using waveform LiDAR, hyperspectral imagery, and large inventory datasets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Finley, Andrew O.; Banerjee, Sudipto; Cook, Bruce D.; Bradford, John B.

2013-01-01

In this paper we detail a multivariate spatial regression model that couples LiDAR, hyperspectral and forest inventory data to predict forest outcome variables at a high spatial resolution. The proposed model is used to analyze forest inventory data collected on the US Forest Service Penobscot Experimental Forest (PEF), ME, USA. In addition to helping meet the regression model's assumptions, results from the PEF analysis suggest that the addition of multivariate spatial random effects improves model fit and predictive ability, compared with two commonly applied modeling approaches. This improvement results from explicitly modeling the covariation among forest outcome variables and spatial dependence among observations through the random effects. Direct application of such multivariate models to even moderately large datasets is often computationally infeasible because of cubic order matrix algorithms involved in estimation. We apply a spatial dimension reduction technique to help overcome this computational hurdle without sacrificing richness in modeling.

Hierarchical spatial models of abundance and occurrence from imperfect survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Kery, M.; Gautier, R.; Schmid, Hans

2007-01-01

Many estimation and inference problems arising from large-scale animal surveys are focused on developing an understanding of patterns in abundance or occurrence of a species based on spatially referenced count data. One fundamental challenge, then, is that it is generally not feasible to completely enumerate ('census') all individuals present in each sample unit. This observation bias may consist of several components, including spatial coverage bias (not all individuals in the Population are exposed to sampling) and detection bias (exposed individuals may go undetected). Thus, observations are biased for the state variable (abundance, occupancy) that is the object of inference. Moreover, data are often sparse for most observation locations, requiring consideration of methods for spatially aggregating or otherwise combining sparse data among sample units. The development of methods that unify spatial statistical models with models accommodating non-detection is necessary to resolve important spatial inference problems based on animal survey data. In this paper, we develop a novel hierarchical spatial model for estimation of abundance and occurrence from survey data wherein detection is imperfect. Our application is focused on spatial inference problems in the Swiss Survey of Common Breeding Birds. The observation model for the survey data is specified conditional on the unknown quadrat population size, N(s). We augment the observation model with a spatial process model for N(s), describing the spatial variation in abundance of the species. The model includes explicit sources of variation in habitat structure (forest, elevation) and latent variation in the form of a correlated spatial process. This provides a model-based framework for combining the spatially referenced samples while at the same time yielding a unified treatment of estimation problems involving both abundance and occurrence. We provide a Bayesian framework for analysis and prediction based on the integrated likelihood, and we use the model to obtain estimates of abundance and occurrence maps for the European Jay (Garrulus glandarius), a widespread, elusive, forest bird. The naive national abundance estimate ignoring imperfect detection and incomplete quadrat coverage was 77 766 territories. Accounting for imperfect detection added approximately 18 000 territories, and adjusting for coverage bias added another 131 000 territories to yield a fully corrected estimate of the national total of about 227 000 territories. This is approximately three times as high as previous estimates that assume every territory is detected in each quadrat.

Multi-scale habitat selection modeling: A review and outlook

Treesearch

Kevin McGarigal; Ho Yi Wan; Kathy A. Zeller; Brad C. Timm; Samuel A. Cushman

2016-01-01

Scale is the lens that focuses ecological relationships. Organisms select habitat at multiple hierarchical levels and at different spatial and/or temporal scales within each level. Failure to properly address scale dependence can result in incorrect inferences in multi-scale habitat selection modeling studies.

Metamodeling Techniques to Aid in the Aggregation Process of Large Hierarchical Simulation Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-08-01

Level Outputs Campaign Level Model Campaign Level Outputs Aggregation Metamodeling Complexity (Spatial, Temporal, etc.) Others? Apply VRT (type......reduction, are called variance reduction techniques ( VRT ) [Law, 2006]. The implementation of some type of VRT can prove to be a very valuable tool

Soil Moisture fusion across scales using a multiscale nonstationary Spatial Hierarchical Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kathuria, D.; Mohanty, B.; Katzfuss, M.

2017-12-01

Soil moisture (SM) datasets from remote sensing (RS) platforms (such as SMOS and SMAP) and reanalysis products from land surface models are typically available on a coarse spatial granularity of several square km. Ground based sensors, on the other hand, provide observations on a finer spatial scale (meter scale or less) but are sparsely available. SM is affected by high variability due to complex interactions between geologic, topographic, vegetation and atmospheric variables and these interactions change dynamically with footprint scales. Past literature has largely focused on the scale specific effect of these covariates on soil moisture. The present study proposes a robust Multiscale-Nonstationary Spatial Hierarchical Model (MN-SHM) which can assimilate SM from point to RS footprints. The spatial structure of SM across footprints is modeled by a class of scalable covariance functions whose nonstationary depends on atmospheric forcings (such as precipitation) and surface physical controls (such as topography, soil-texture and vegetation). The proposed model is applied to fuse point and airborne ( 1.5 km) SM data obtained during the SMAPVEX12 campaign in the Red River watershed in Southern Manitoba, Canada with SMOS ( 30km) data. It is observed that precipitation, soil-texture and vegetation are the dominant factors which affect the SM distribution across various footprint scales (750 m, 1.5 km, 3 km, 9 km,15 km and 30 km). We conclude that MN-SHM handles the change of support problems easily while retaining reasonable predictive accuracy across multiple spatial resolutions in the presence of surface heterogeneity. The MN-SHM can be considered as a complex non-stationary extension of traditional geostatistical prediction methods (such as Kriging) for fusing multi-platform multi-scale datasets.

Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling for Big Data Fusion in Soil Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohanty, B.; Kathuria, D.; Katzfuss, M.

2016-12-01

Soil moisture datasets from remote sensing (RS) platforms (such as SMOS and SMAP) and reanalysis products from land surface models are typically available on a coarse spatial granularity of several square km. Ground based sensors on the other hand provide observations on a finer spatial scale (meter scale or less) but are sparsely available. Soil moisture is affected by high variability due to complex interactions between geologic, topographic, vegetation and atmospheric variables. Hydrologic processes usually occur at a scale of 1 km or less and therefore spatially ubiquitous and temporally periodic soil moisture products at this scale are required to aid local decision makers in agriculture, weather prediction and reservoir operations. Past literature has largely focused on downscaling RS soil moisture for a small extent of a field or a watershed and hence the applicability of such products has been limited. The present study employs a spatial Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) to derive soil moisture products at a spatial scale of 1 km for the state of Oklahoma by fusing point scale Mesonet data and coarse scale RS data for soil moisture and its auxiliary covariates such as precipitation, topography, soil texture and vegetation. It is seen that the BHM model handles change of support problems easily while performing accurate uncertainty quantification arising from measurement errors and imperfect retrieval algorithms. The computational challenge arising due to the large number of measurements is tackled by utilizing basis function approaches and likelihood approximations. The BHM model can be considered as a complex Bayesian extension of traditional geostatistical prediction methods (such as Kriging) for large datasets in the presence of uncertainties.

A hierarchical approach to forest landscape pattern characterization.

PubMed

Wang, Jialing; Yang, Xiaojun

2012-01-01

Landscape spatial patterns have increasingly been considered to be essential for environmental planning and resources management. In this study, we proposed a hierarchical approach for landscape classification and evaluation by characterizing landscape spatial patterns across different hierarchical levels. The case study site is the Red Hills region of northern Florida and southwestern Georgia, well known for its biodiversity, historic resources, and scenic beauty. We used one Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper image to extract land-use/-cover information. Then, we employed principal-component analysis to help identify key class-level landscape metrics for forests at different hierarchical levels, namely, open pine, upland pine, and forest as a whole. We found that the key class-level landscape metrics varied across different hierarchical levels. Compared with forest as a whole, open pine forest is much more fragmented. The landscape metric, such as CONTIG_MN, which measures whether pine patches are contiguous or not, is more important to characterize the spatial pattern of pine forest than to forest as a whole. This suggests that different metric sets should be used to characterize landscape patterns at different hierarchical levels. We further used these key metrics, along with the total class area, to classify and evaluate subwatersheds through cluster analysis. This study demonstrates a promising approach that can be used to integrate spatial patterns and processes for hierarchical forest landscape planning and management.

Sparsey™: event recognition via deep hierarchical sparse distributed codes

PubMed Central

Rinkus, Gerard J.

2014-01-01

The visual cortex's hierarchical, multi-level organization is captured in many biologically inspired computational vision models, the general idea being that progressively larger scale (spatially/temporally) and more complex visual features are represented in progressively higher areas. However, most earlier models use localist representations (codes) in each representational field (which we equate with the cortical macrocolumn, “mac”), at each level. In localism, each represented feature/concept/event (hereinafter “item”) is coded by a single unit. The model we describe, Sparsey, is hierarchical as well but crucially, it uses sparse distributed coding (SDC) in every mac in all levels. In SDC, each represented item is coded by a small subset of the mac's units. The SDCs of different items can overlap and the size of overlap between items can be used to represent their similarity. The difference between localism and SDC is crucial because SDC allows the two essential operations of associative memory, storing a new item and retrieving the best-matching stored item, to be done in fixed time for the life of the model. Since the model's core algorithm, which does both storage and retrieval (inference), makes a single pass over all macs on each time step, the overall model's storage/retrieval operation is also fixed-time, a criterion we consider essential for scalability to the huge (“Big Data”) problems. A 2010 paper described a nonhierarchical version of this model in the context of purely spatial pattern processing. Here, we elaborate a fully hierarchical model (arbitrary numbers of levels and macs per level), describing novel model principles like progressive critical periods, dynamic modulation of principal cells' activation functions based on a mac-level familiarity measure, representation of multiple simultaneously active hypotheses, a novel method of time warp invariant recognition, and we report results showing learning/recognition of spatiotemporal patterns. PMID:25566046

Advanced hierarchical distance sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, Andy

2016-01-01

In this chapter, we cover a number of important extensions of the basic hierarchical distance-sampling (HDS) framework from Chapter 8. First, we discuss the inclusion of “individual covariates,” such as group size, in the HDS model. This is important in many surveys where animals form natural groups that are the primary observation unit, with the size of the group expected to have some influence on detectability. We also discuss HDS integrated with time-removal and double-observer or capture-recapture sampling. These “combined protocols” can be formulated as HDS models with individual covariates, and thus they have a commonality with HDS models involving group structure (group size being just another individual covariate). We cover several varieties of open-population HDS models that accommodate population dynamics. On one end of the spectrum, we cover models that allow replicate distance sampling surveys within a year, which estimate abundance relative to availability and temporary emigration through time. We consider a robust design version of that model. We then consider models with explicit dynamics based on the Dail and Madsen (2011) model and the work of Sollmann et al. (2015). The final major theme of this chapter is relatively newly developed spatial distance sampling models that accommodate explicit models describing the spatial distribution of individuals known as Point Process models. We provide novel formulations of spatial DS and HDS models in this chapter, including implementations of those models in the unmarked package using a hack of the pcount function for N-mixture models.

Improved Forecasting of Next Day Ozone Concentrations in the Eastern U.S.

EPA Science Inventory

There is an urgent need to provide accurate air quality information and forecasts to the general public. A hierarchical space-time model is used to forecast next day spatial patterns of daily maximum 8-hr ozone concentrations. The model combines ozone monitoring data and gridded...

Developing a Hierarchical Model for the Spatial Analysis of PM10 Pollution Extremes in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

PubMed Central

Aguirre-Salado, Alejandro Ivan; Vaquera-Huerta, Humberto; Aguirre-Salado, Carlos Arturo; Reyes-Mora, Silvia; Olvera-Cervantes, Ana Delia; Lancho-Romero, Guillermo Arturo; Soubervielle-Montalvo, Carlos

2017-01-01

We implemented a spatial model for analysing PM10 maxima across the Mexico City metropolitan area during the period 1995–2016. We assumed that these maxima follow a non-identical generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and modeled the trend by introducing multivariate smoothing spline functions into the probability GEV distribution. A flexible, three-stage hierarchical Bayesian approach was developed to analyse the distribution of the PM10 maxima in space and time. We evaluated the statistical model’s performance by using a simulation study. The results showed strong evidence of a positive correlation between the PM10 maxima and the longitude and latitude. The relationship between time and the PM10 maxima was negative, indicating a decreasing trend over time. Finally, a high risk of PM10 maxima presenting levels above 1000 μg/m3 (return period: 25 yr) was observed in the northwestern region of the study area. PMID:28684720

Comparison of Extreme Precipitation Return Levels using Spatial Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling versus Regional Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, C. A.; Skahill, B. E.; AghaKouchak, A.; Karlovits, G. S.; England, J. F.; Duren, A. M.

2017-12-01

We compare gridded extreme precipitation return levels obtained using spatial Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) with their respective counterparts from a traditional regional frequency analysis (RFA) using the same set of extreme precipitation data. Our study area is the 11,478 square mile Willamette River basin (WRB) located in northwestern Oregon, a major tributary of the Columbia River whose 187 miles long main stem, the Willamette River, flows northward between the Coastal and Cascade Ranges. The WRB contains approximately two ­thirds of Oregon's population and 20 of the 25 most populous cities in the state. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Portland District operates thirteen dams and extreme precipitation estimates are required to support risk­ informed hydrologic analyses as part of the USACE Dam Safety Program. Our intent is to profile for the USACE an alternate methodology to an RFA that was developed in 2008 due to the lack of an official NOAA Atlas 14 update for the state of Oregon. We analyze 24-hour annual precipitation maxima data for the WRB utilizing the spatial BHM R package "spatial.gev.bma", which has been shown to be efficient in developing coherent maps of extreme precipitation by return level. Our BHM modeling analysis involved application of leave-one-out cross validation (LOO-CV), which not only supported model selection but also a comprehensive assessment of location specific model performance. The LOO-CV results will provide a basis for the BHM RFA comparison.

A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Glacial Dynamics Based on the Shallow Ice Approximation and its Evaluation Using Analytical Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopalan, Giri; Hrafnkelsson, Birgir; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Jarosch, Alexander H.; Pálsson, Finnur

2018-03-01

Bayesian hierarchical modeling can assist the study of glacial dynamics and ice flow properties. This approach will allow glaciologists to make fully probabilistic predictions for the thickness of a glacier at unobserved spatio-temporal coordinates, and it will also allow for the derivation of posterior probability distributions for key physical parameters such as ice viscosity and basal sliding. The goal of this paper is to develop a proof of concept for a Bayesian hierarchical model constructed, which uses exact analytical solutions for the shallow ice approximation (SIA) introduced by Bueler et al. (2005). A suite of test simulations utilizing these exact solutions suggests that this approach is able to adequately model numerical errors and produce useful physical parameter posterior distributions and predictions. A byproduct of the development of the Bayesian hierarchical model is the derivation of a novel finite difference method for solving the SIA partial differential equation (PDE). An additional novelty of this work is the correction of numerical errors induced through a numerical solution using a statistical model. This error correcting process models numerical errors that accumulate forward in time and spatial variation of numerical errors between the dome, interior, and margin of a glacier.

Hierarchical Bayesian method for mapping biogeochemical hot spots using induced polarization imaging

DOE PAGES

Wainwright, Haruko M.; Flores Orozco, Adrian; Bucker, Matthias; ...

2016-01-29

In floodplain environments, a naturally reduced zone (NRZ) is considered to be a common biogeochemical hot spot, having distinct microbial and geochemical characteristics. Although important for understanding their role in mediating floodplain biogeochemical processes, mapping the subsurface distribution of NRZs over the dimensions of a floodplain is challenging, as conventional wellbore data are typically spatially limited and the distribution of NRZs is heterogeneous. In this work, we present an innovative methodology for the probabilistic mapping of NRZs within a three-dimensional (3-D) subsurface domain using induced polarization imaging, which is a noninvasive geophysical technique. Measurements consist of surface geophysical surveys andmore » drilling-recovered sediments at the U.S. Department of Energy field site near Rifle, CO (USA). Inversion of surface time domain-induced polarization (TDIP) data yielded 3-D images of the complex electrical resistivity, in terms of magnitude and phase, which are associated with mineral precipitation and other lithological properties. By extracting the TDIP data values colocated with wellbore lithological logs, we found that the NRZs have a different distribution of resistivity and polarization from the other aquifer sediments. To estimate the spatial distribution of NRZs, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to integrate the geophysical and wellbore data. In addition, the resistivity images were used to estimate hydrostratigraphic interfaces under the floodplain. Validation results showed that the integration of electrical imaging and wellbore data using a Bayesian hierarchical model was capable of mapping spatially heterogeneous interfaces and NRZ distributions thereby providing a minimally invasive means to parameterize a hydrobiogeochemical model of the floodplain.« less

Comparison of statistical and theoretical habitat models for conservation planning: the benefit of ensemble prediction

Treesearch

D. Todd Jones-Farrand; Todd M. Fearer; Wayne E. Thogmartin; Frank R. Thompson; Mark D. Nelson; John M. Tirpak

2011-01-01

Selection of a modeling approach is an important step in the conservation planning process, but little guidance is available. We compared two statistical and three theoretical habitat modeling approaches representing those currently being used for avian conservation planning at landscape and regional scales: hierarchical spatial count (HSC), classification and...

Spatio-temporal hierarchical modeling of rates and variability of Holocene sea-level changes in the western North Atlantic and the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashe, E.; Kopp, R. E.; Khan, N.; Horton, B.; Engelhart, S. E.

2016-12-01

Sea level varies over of both space and time. Prior to the instrumental period, the sea-level record depends upon geological reconstructions that contain vertical and temporal uncertainty. Spatio-temporal statistical models enable the interpretation of RSL and rates of change as well as the reconstruction of the entire sea-level field from such noisy data. Hierarchical models explicitly distinguish between a process level, which characterizes the spatio-temporal field, and a data level, by which sparse proxy data and its noise is recorded. A hyperparameter level depicts prior expectations about the structure of variability in the spatio-temporal field. Spatio-temporal hierarchical models are amenable to several analysis approaches, with tradeoffs regarding computational efficiency and comprehensiveness of uncertainty characterization. A fully-Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM), which places prior probability distributions upon the hyperparameters, is more computationally intensive than an empirical hierarchical model (EHM), which uses point estimates of hyperparameters, derived from the data [1]. Here, we assess the sensitivity of posterior estimates of relative sea level (RSL) and rates to different statistical approaches by varying prior assumptions about the spatial and temporal structure of sea-level variability and applying multiple analytical approaches to Holocene sea-level proxies along the Atlantic coast of North American and the Caribbean [2]. References: 1. N Cressie, Wikle CK (2011) Statistics for spatio-temporal data (John Wiley & Sons). 2. Kahn N et al. (2016). Quaternary Science Reviews (in revision).

Modeling urban air pollution with optimized hierarchical fuzzy inference system.

PubMed

Tashayo, Behnam; Alimohammadi, Abbas

2016-10-01

Environmental exposure assessments (EEA) and epidemiological studies require urban air pollution models with appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions. Uncertain available data and inflexible models can limit air pollution modeling techniques, particularly in under developing countries. This paper develops a hierarchical fuzzy inference system (HFIS) to model air pollution under different land use, transportation, and meteorological conditions. To improve performance, the system treats the issue as a large-scale and high-dimensional problem and develops the proposed model using a three-step approach. In the first step, a geospatial information system (GIS) and probabilistic methods are used to preprocess the data. In the second step, a hierarchical structure is generated based on the problem. In the third step, the accuracy and complexity of the model are simultaneously optimized with a multiple objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) algorithm. We examine the capabilities of the proposed model for predicting daily and annual mean PM2.5 and NO2 and compare the accuracy of the results with representative models from existing literature. The benefits provided by the model features, including probabilistic preprocessing, multi-objective optimization, and hierarchical structure, are precisely evaluated by comparing five different consecutive models in terms of accuracy and complexity criteria. Fivefold cross validation is used to assess the performance of the generated models. The respective average RMSEs and coefficients of determination (R (2)) for the test datasets using proposed model are as follows: daily PM2.5 = (8.13, 0.78), annual mean PM2.5 = (4.96, 0.80), daily NO2 = (5.63, 0.79), and annual mean NO2 = (2.89, 0.83). The obtained results demonstrate that the developed hierarchical fuzzy inference system can be utilized for modeling air pollution in EEA and epidemiological studies.

The organisation of spatial and temporal relations in memory.

PubMed

Rondina, Renante; Curtiss, Kaitlin; Meltzer, Jed A; Barense, Morgan D; Ryan, Jennifer D

2017-04-01

Episodic memories are comprised of details of "where" and "when"; spatial and temporal relations, respectively. However, evidence from behavioural, neuropsychological, and neuroimaging studies has provided mixed interpretations about how memories for spatial and temporal relations are organised-they may be hierarchical, fully interactive, or independent. In the current study, we examined the interaction of memory for spatial and temporal relations. Using explicit reports and eye-tracking, we assessed younger and older adults' memory for spatial and temporal relations of objects that were presented singly across time in unique spatial locations. Explicit change detection of spatial relations was affected by a change in temporal relations, but explicit change detection of temporal relations was not affected by a change in spatial relations. Younger and older adults showed eye movement evidence of incidental memory for temporal relations, but only younger adults showed eye movement evidence of incidental memory for spatial relations. Together, these findings point towards a hierarchical organisation of relational memory. The implications of these findings are discussed in the context of the neural mechanisms that may support such a hierarchical organisation of memory.

Recognition and characterization of hierarchical interstellar structure. II - Structure tree statistics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houlahan, Padraig; Scalo, John

1992-01-01

A new method of image analysis is described, in which images partitioned into 'clouds' are represented by simplified skeleton images, called structure trees, that preserve the spatial relations of the component clouds while disregarding information concerning their sizes and shapes. The method can be used to discriminate between images of projected hierarchical (multiply nested) and random three-dimensional simulated collections of clouds constructed on the basis of observed interstellar properties, and even intermediate systems formed by combining random and hierarchical simulations. For a given structure type, the method can distinguish between different subclasses of models with different parameters and reliably estimate their hierarchical parameters: average number of children per parent, scale reduction factor per level of hierarchy, density contrast, and number of resolved levels. An application to a column density image of the Taurus complex constructed from IRAS data is given. Moderately strong evidence for a hierarchical structural component is found, and parameters of the hierarchy, as well as the average volume filling factor and mass efficiency of fragmentation per level of hierarchy, are estimated. The existence of nested structure contradicts models in which large molecular clouds are supposed to fragment, in a single stage, into roughly stellar-mass cores.

NASREN: Standard reference model for telerobot control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Albus, J. S.; Lumia, R.; Mccain, H.

1987-01-01

A hierarchical architecture is described which supports space station telerobots in a variety of modes. The system is divided into three hierarchies: task decomposition, world model, and sensory processing. Goals at each level of the task dedomposition heirarchy are divided both spatially and temporally into simpler commands for the next lower level. This decomposition is repreated until, at the lowest level, the drive signals to the robot actuators are generated. To accomplish its goals, task decomposition modules must often use information stored it the world model. The purpose of the sensory system is to update the world model as rapidly as possible to keep the model in registration with the physical world. The architecture of the entire control system hierarch is described and how it can be applied to space telerobot applications.

Towards a hierarchical optimization framework for spatially targeting incentive policies to promote green infrastructure amidst multiple objectives and uncertainty

EPA Science Inventory

We introduce a hierarchical optimization framework for spatially targeting green infrastructure (GI) incentive policies in order to meet objectives related to cost and environmental effectiveness. The framework explicitly simulates the interaction between multiple levels of polic...

Cholinergic stimulation enhances Bayesian belief updating in the deployment of spatial attention.

PubMed

Vossel, Simone; Bauer, Markus; Mathys, Christoph; Adams, Rick A; Dolan, Raymond J; Stephan, Klaas E; Friston, Karl J

2014-11-19

The exact mechanisms whereby the cholinergic neurotransmitter system contributes to attentional processing remain poorly understood. Here, we applied computational modeling to psychophysical data (obtained from a spatial attention task) under a psychopharmacological challenge with the cholinesterase inhibitor galantamine (Reminyl). This allowed us to characterize the cholinergic modulation of selective attention formally, in terms of hierarchical Bayesian inference. In a placebo-controlled, within-subject, crossover design, 16 healthy human subjects performed a modified version of Posner's location-cueing task in which the proportion of validly and invalidly cued targets (percentage of cue validity, % CV) changed over time. Saccadic response speeds were used to estimate the parameters of a hierarchical Bayesian model to test whether cholinergic stimulation affected the trial-wise updating of probabilistic beliefs that underlie the allocation of attention or whether galantamine changed the mapping from those beliefs to subsequent eye movements. Behaviorally, galantamine led to a greater influence of probabilistic context (% CV) on response speed than placebo. Crucially, computational modeling suggested this effect was due to an increase in the rate of belief updating about cue validity (as opposed to the increased sensitivity of behavioral responses to those beliefs). We discuss these findings with respect to cholinergic effects on hierarchical cortical processing and in relation to the encoding of expected uncertainty or precision. Copyright © 2014 the authors 0270-6474/14/3415735-08$15.00/0.

A hierarchical spatial model of avian abundance with application to Cerulean Warblers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sauer, John R.; Knutson, Melinda G.

2004-01-01

Surveys collecting count data are the primary means by which abundance is indexed for birds. These counts are confounded, however, by nuisance effects including observer effects and spatial correlation between counts. Current methods poorly accommodate both observer and spatial effects because modeling these spatially autocorrelated counts within a hierarchical framework is not practical using standard statistical approaches. We propose a Bayesian approach to this problem and provide as an example of its implementation a spatial model of predicted abundance for the Cerulean Warbler (Dendroica cerulea) in the Prairie-Hardwood Transition of the upper midwestern United States. We used an overdispersed Poisson regression with fixed and random effects, fitted by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We used 21 years of North American Breeding Bird Survey counts as the response in a loglinear function of explanatory variables describing habitat, spatial relatedness, year effects, and observer effects. The model included a conditional autoregressive term representing potential correlation between adjacent route counts. Categories of explanatory habitat variables in the model included land cover composition and configuration, climate, terrain heterogeneity, and human influence. The inherent hierarchy in the model was from counts occurring, in part, as a function of observers within survey routes within years. We found that the percentage of forested wetlands, an index of wetness potential, and an interaction between mean annual precipitation and deciduous forest patch size best described Cerulean Warbler abundance. Based on a map of relative abundance derived from the posterior parameter estimates, we estimated that only 15% of the species' population occurred on federal land, necessitating active engagement of public landowners and state agencies in the conservation of the breeding habitat for this species. Models of this type can be applied to any data in which the response is counts, such as animal counts, activity (e.g.,nest) counts, or species richness. The most noteworthy practical application of this spatial modeling approach is the ability to map relative species abundance. The functional relationships that we elucidated for the Cerulean Warbler provide a basis for the development of management programs and may serve to focus management and monitoring on areas and habitat variables important to Cerulean Warblers.

Spatio-temporal modelling for assessing air pollution in Santiago de Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolis, Orietta; Camaño, Christian; Mařın, Julio C.; Sahu, Sujit K.

2017-01-01

In this work, we propose a space-time approach for studying the PM2.5 concentration in the city of Santiago de Chile. In particular, we apply the autoregressive hierarchical model proposed by [1] using the PM2.5 observations collected by a monitoring network as a response variable and numerical weather forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as covariate together with spatial and temporal (periodic) components. The approach is able to provide short-term spatio-temporal predictions of PM2.5 concentrations on a fine spatial grid (at 1km × 1km horizontal resolution.)

A geostatistics-informed hierarchical sensitivity analysis method for complex groundwater flow and transport modeling: GEOSTATISTICAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Heng; Chen, Xingyuan; Ye, Ming

Sensitivity analysis is an important tool for quantifying uncertainty in the outputs of mathematical models, especially for complex systems with a high dimension of spatially correlated parameters. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis has gained popularity because it can quantify the relative contribution of uncertainty from different sources. However, its computational cost increases dramatically with the complexity of the considered model and the dimension of model parameters. In this study we developed a hierarchical sensitivity analysis method that (1) constructs an uncertainty hierarchy by analyzing the input uncertainty sources, and (2) accounts for the spatial correlation among parameters at each level ofmore » the hierarchy using geostatistical tools. The contribution of uncertainty source at each hierarchy level is measured by sensitivity indices calculated using the variance decomposition method. Using this methodology, we identified the most important uncertainty source for a dynamic groundwater flow and solute transport in model at the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford site. The results indicate that boundary conditions and permeability field contribute the most uncertainty to the simulated head field and tracer plume, respectively. The relative contribution from each source varied spatially and temporally as driven by the dynamic interaction between groundwater and river water at the site. By using a geostatistical approach to reduce the number of realizations needed for the sensitivity analysis, the computational cost of implementing the developed method was reduced to a practically manageable level. The developed sensitivity analysis method is generally applicable to a wide range of hydrologic and environmental problems that deal with high-dimensional spatially-distributed parameters.« less

A hierarchical model for estimating the spatial distribution and abundance of animals detected by continuous-time recorders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert; Karanth, K. Ullas

2017-01-01

MotivationSeveral spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models have been developed to estimate animal abundance by analyzing the detections of individuals in a spatial array of traps. Most of these models do not use the actual dates and times of detection, even though this information is readily available when using continuous-time recorders, such as microphones or motion-activated cameras. Instead most SCR models either partition the period of trap operation into a set of subjectively chosen discrete intervals and ignore multiple detections of the same individual within each interval, or they simply use the frequency of detections during the period of trap operation and ignore the observed times of detection. Both practices make inefficient use of potentially important information in the data.Model and data analysisWe developed a hierarchical SCR model to estimate the spatial distribution and abundance of animals detected with continuous-time recorders. Our model includes two kinds of point processes: a spatial process to specify the distribution of latent activity centers of individuals within the region of sampling and a temporal process to specify temporal patterns in the detections of individuals. We illustrated this SCR model by analyzing spatial and temporal patterns evident in the camera-trap detections of tigers living in and around the Nagarahole Tiger Reserve in India. We also conducted a simulation study to examine the performance of our model when analyzing data sets of greater complexity than the tiger data.BenefitsOur approach provides three important benefits: First, it exploits all of the information in SCR data obtained using continuous-time recorders. Second, it is sufficiently versatile to allow the effects of both space use and behavior of animals to be specified as functions of covariates that vary over space and time. Third, it allows both the spatial distribution and abundance of individuals to be estimated, effectively providing a species distribution model, even in cases where spatial covariates of abundance are unknown or unavailable. We illustrated these benefits in the analysis of our data, which allowed us to quantify differences between nocturnal and diurnal activities of tigers and to estimate their spatial distribution and abundance across the study area. Our continuous-time SCR model allows an analyst to specify many of the ecological processes thought to be involved in the distribution, movement, and behavior of animals detected in a spatial trapping array of continuous-time recorders. We plan to extend this model to estimate the population dynamics of animals detected during multiple years of SCR surveys.

Ray tracing a three-dimensional scene using a hierarchical data structure

DOEpatents

Wald, Ingo; Boulos, Solomon; Shirley, Peter

2012-09-04

Ray tracing a three-dimensional scene made up of geometric primitives that are spatially partitioned into a hierarchical data structure. One example embodiment is a method for ray tracing a three-dimensional scene made up of geometric primitives that are spatially partitioned into a hierarchical data structure. In this example embodiment, the hierarchical data structure includes at least a parent node and a corresponding plurality of child nodes. The method includes a first act of determining that a first active ray in the packet hits the parent node and a second act of descending to each of the plurality of child nodes.

Modeling the Spatial Dynamics of Regional Land Use: The CLUE-S Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verburg, Peter H.; Soepboer, Welmoed; Veldkamp, A.; Limpiada, Ramil; Espaldon, Victoria; Mastura, Sharifah S. A.

2002-09-01

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.

Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model.

PubMed

Verburg, Peter H; Soepboer, Welmoed; Veldkamp, A; Limpiada, Ramil; Espaldon, Victoria; Mastura, Sharifah S A

2002-09-01

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.

Spatial Intensity Duration Frequency Relationships Using Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis for Urban Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rupa, Chandra; Mujumdar, Pradeep

2016-04-01

In urban areas, quantification of extreme precipitation is important in the design of storm water drains and other infrastructure. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are generally used to obtain design return level for a given duration and return period. Due to lack of availability of extreme precipitation data for sufficiently large number of years, estimating the probability of extreme events is difficult. Typically, a single station data is used to obtain the design return levels for various durations and return periods, which are used in the design of urban infrastructure for the entire city. In an urban setting, the spatial variation of precipitation can be high; the precipitation amounts and patterns often vary within short distances of less than 5 km. Therefore it is crucial to study the uncertainties in the spatial variation of return levels for various durations. In this work, the extreme precipitation is modeled spatially using the Bayesian hierarchical analysis and the spatial variation of return levels is studied. The analysis is carried out with Block Maxima approach for defining the extreme precipitation, using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for Bangalore city, Karnataka state, India. Daily data for nineteen stations in and around Bangalore city is considered in the study. The analysis is carried out for summer maxima (March - May), monsoon maxima (June - September) and the annual maxima rainfall. In the hierarchical analysis, the statistical model is specified in three layers. The data layer models the block maxima, pooling the extreme precipitation from all the stations. In the process layer, the latent spatial process characterized by geographical and climatological covariates (lat-lon, elevation, mean temperature etc.) which drives the extreme precipitation is modeled and in the prior level, the prior distributions that govern the latent process are modeled. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm (Metropolis Hastings algorithm within a Gibbs sampler) is used to obtain the samples of parameters from the posterior distribution of parameters. The spatial maps of return levels for specified return periods, along with the associated uncertainties, are obtained for the summer, monsoon and annual maxima rainfall. Considering various covariates, the best fit model is selected using Deviance Information Criteria. It is observed that the geographical covariates outweigh the climatological covariates for the monsoon maxima rainfall (latitude and longitude). The best covariates for summer maxima and annual maxima rainfall are mean summer precipitation and mean monsoon precipitation respectively, including elevation for both the cases. The scale invariance theory, which states that statistical properties of a process observed at various scales are governed by the same relationship, is used to disaggregate the daily rainfall to hourly scales. The spatial maps of the scale are obtained for the study area. The spatial maps of IDF relationships thus generated are useful in storm water designs, adequacy analysis and identifying the vulnerable flooding areas.

A test of the hierarchical model of litter decomposition.

PubMed

Bradford, Mark A; Veen, G F Ciska; Bonis, Anne; Bradford, Ella M; Classen, Aimee T; Cornelissen, J Hans C; Crowther, Thomas W; De Long, Jonathan R; Freschet, Gregoire T; Kardol, Paul; Manrubia-Freixa, Marta; Maynard, Daniel S; Newman, Gregory S; Logtestijn, Richard S P; Viketoft, Maria; Wardle, David A; Wieder, William R; Wood, Stephen A; van der Putten, Wim H

2017-12-01

Our basic understanding of plant litter decomposition informs the assumptions underlying widely applied soil biogeochemical models, including those embedded in Earth system models. Confidence in projected carbon cycle-climate feedbacks therefore depends on accurate knowledge about the controls regulating the rate at which plant biomass is decomposed into products such as CO 2 . Here we test underlying assumptions of the dominant conceptual model of litter decomposition. The model posits that a primary control on the rate of decomposition at regional to global scales is climate (temperature and moisture), with the controlling effects of decomposers negligible at such broad spatial scales. Using a regional-scale litter decomposition experiment at six sites spanning from northern Sweden to southern France-and capturing both within and among site variation in putative controls-we find that contrary to predictions from the hierarchical model, decomposer (microbial) biomass strongly regulates decomposition at regional scales. Furthermore, the size of the microbial biomass dictates the absolute change in decomposition rates with changing climate variables. Our findings suggest the need for revision of the hierarchical model, with decomposers acting as both local- and broad-scale controls on litter decomposition rates, necessitating their explicit consideration in global biogeochemical models.

Crucial nesting habitat for gunnison sage-grouse: A spatially explicit hierarchical approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldridge, Cameron L.; Saher, D.J.; Childers, T.M.; Stahlnecker, K.E.; Bowen, Z.H.

2012-01-01

Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of special concern and is currently considered a candidate species under Endangered Species Act. Careful management is therefore required to ensure that suitable habitat is maintained, particularly because much of the species' current distribution is faced with exurban development pressures. We assessed hierarchical nest site selection patterns of Gunnison sage-grouse inhabiting the western portion of the Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA, at multiple spatial scales, using logistic regression-based resource selection functions. Models were selected using Akaike Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AIC c) and predictive surfaces were generated using model averaged relative probabilities. Landscape-scale factors that had the most influence on nest site selection included the proportion of sagebrush cover >5%, mean productivity, and density of 2 wheel-drive roads. The landscape-scale predictive surface captured 97% of known Gunnison sage-grouse nests within the top 5 of 10 prediction bins, implicating 57% of the basin as crucial nesting habitat. Crucial habitat identified by the landscape model was used to define the extent for patch-scale modeling efforts. Patch-scale variables that had the greatest influence on nest site selection were the proportion of big sagebrush cover >10%, distance to residential development, distance to high volume paved roads, and mean productivity. This model accurately predicted independent nest locations. The unique hierarchical structure of our models more accurately captures the nested nature of habitat selection, and allowed for increased discrimination within larger landscapes of suitable habitat. We extrapolated the landscape-scale model to the entire Gunnison Basin because of conservation concerns for this species. We believe this predictive surface is a valuable tool which can be incorporated into land use and conservation planning as well the assessment of future land-use scenarios. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Understanding movement data and movement processes: current and emerging directions.

PubMed

Schick, Robert S; Loarie, Scott R; Colchero, Fernando; Best, Benjamin D; Boustany, Andre; Conde, Dalia A; Halpin, Patrick N; Joppa, Lucas N; McClellan, Catherine M; Clark, James S

2008-12-01

Animal movement has been the focus on much theoretical and empirical work in ecology over the last 25 years. By studying the causes and consequences of individual movement, ecologists have gained greater insight into the behavior of individuals and the spatial dynamics of populations at increasingly higher levels of organization. In particular, ecologists have focused on the interaction between individuals and their environment in an effort to understand future impacts from habitat loss and climate change. Tools to examine this interaction have included: fractal analysis, first passage time, Lévy flights, multi-behavioral analysis, hidden markov models, and state-space models. Concurrent with the development of movement models has been an increase in the sophistication and availability of hierarchical bayesian models. In this review we bring these two threads together by using hierarchical structures as a framework for reviewing individual models. We synthesize emerging themes in movement ecology, and propose a new hierarchical model for animal movement that builds on these emerging themes. This model moves away from traditional random walks, and instead focuses inference on how moving animals with complex behavior interact with their landscape and make choices about its suitability.

Partitioning degrees of freedom in hierarchical and other richly-parameterized models.

PubMed

Cui, Yue; Hodges, James S; Kong, Xiaoxiao; Carlin, Bradley P

2010-02-01

Hodges & Sargent (2001) developed a measure of a hierarchical model's complexity, degrees of freedom (DF), that is consistent with definitions for scatterplot smoothers, interpretable in terms of simple models, and that enables control of a fit's complexity by means of a prior distribution on complexity. DF describes complexity of the whole fitted model but in general it is unclear how to allocate DF to individual effects. We give a new definition of DF for arbitrary normal-error linear hierarchical models, consistent with Hodges & Sargent's, that naturally partitions the n observations into DF for individual effects and for error. The new conception of an effect's DF is the ratio of the effect's modeled variance matrix to the total variance matrix. This gives a way to describe the sizes of different parts of a model (e.g., spatial clustering vs. heterogeneity), to place DF-based priors on smoothing parameters, and to describe how a smoothed effect competes with other effects. It also avoids difficulties with the most common definition of DF for residuals. We conclude by comparing DF to the effective number of parameters p(D) of Spiegelhalter et al (2002). Technical appendices and a dataset are available online as supplemental materials.

Large-scale model of flow in heterogeneous and hierarchical porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chabanon, Morgan; Valdés-Parada, Francisco J.; Ochoa-Tapia, J. Alberto; Goyeau, Benoît

2017-11-01

Heterogeneous porous structures are very often encountered in natural environments, bioremediation processes among many others. Reliable models for momentum transport are crucial whenever mass transport or convective heat occurs in these systems. In this work, we derive a large-scale average model for incompressible single-phase flow in heterogeneous and hierarchical soil porous media composed of two distinct porous regions embedding a solid impermeable structure. The model, based on the local mechanical equilibrium assumption between the porous regions, results in a unique momentum transport equation where the global effective permeability naturally depends on the permeabilities at the intermediate mesoscopic scales and therefore includes the complex hierarchical structure of the soil. The associated closure problem is numerically solved for various configurations and properties of the heterogeneous medium. The results clearly show that the effective permeability increases with the volume fraction of the most permeable porous region. It is also shown that the effective permeability is sensitive to the dimensionality spatial arrangement of the porous regions and in particular depends on the contact between the impermeable solid and the two porous regions.

A hierarchical model for estimating density in camera-trap studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Nichols, James D.; Karanth, K.Ullas; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.

2009-01-01

Estimating animal density using capture–recapture data from arrays of detection devices such as camera traps has been problematic due to the movement of individuals and heterogeneity in capture probability among them induced by differential exposure to trapping.We develop a spatial capture–recapture model for estimating density from camera-trapping data which contains explicit models for the spatial point process governing the distribution of individuals and their exposure to and detection by traps.We adopt a Bayesian approach to analysis of the hierarchical model using the technique of data augmentation.The model is applied to photographic capture–recapture data on tigers Panthera tigris in Nagarahole reserve, India. Using this model, we estimate the density of tigers to be 14·3 animals per 100 km2 during 2004.Synthesis and applications. Our modelling framework largely overcomes several weaknesses in conventional approaches to the estimation of animal density from trap arrays. It effectively deals with key problems such as individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities, movement of traps, presence of potential ‘holes’ in the array and ad hoc estimation of sample area. The formulation, thus, greatly enhances flexibility in the conduct of field surveys as well as in the analysis of data, from studies that may involve physical, photographic or DNA-based ‘captures’ of individual animals.

Improvement in Recursive Hierarchical Segmentation of Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tilton, James C.

2006-01-01

A further modification has been made in the algorithm and implementing software reported in Modified Recursive Hierarchical Segmentation of Data (GSC- 14681-1), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 30, No. 6 (June 2006), page 51. That software performs recursive hierarchical segmentation of data having spatial characteristics (e.g., spectral-image data). The output of a prior version of the software contained artifacts, including spurious segmentation-image regions bounded by processing-window edges. The modification for suppressing the artifacts, mentioned in the cited article, was addition of a subroutine that analyzes data in the vicinities of seams to find pairs of regions that tend to lie adjacent to each other on opposite sides of the seams. Within each such pair, pixels in one region that are more similar to pixels in the other region are reassigned to the other region. The present modification provides for a parameter ranging from 0 to 1 for controlling the relative priority of merges between spatially adjacent and spatially non-adjacent regions. At 1, spatially-adjacent-/spatially- non-adjacent-region merges have equal priority. At 0, only spatially-adjacent-region merges (no spectral clustering) are allowed. Between 0 and 1, spatially-adjacent- region merges have priority over spatially- non-adjacent ones.

Multivariate spatial models of excess crash frequency at area level: case of Costa Rica.

PubMed

Aguero-Valverde, Jonathan

2013-10-01

Recently, areal models of crash frequency have being used in the analysis of various area-wide factors affecting road crashes. On the other hand, disease mapping methods are commonly used in epidemiology to assess the relative risk of the population at different spatial units. A natural next step is to combine these two approaches to estimate the excess crash frequency at area level as a measure of absolute crash risk. Furthermore, multivariate spatial models of crash severity are explored in order to account for both frequency and severity of crashes and control for the spatial correlation frequently found in crash data. This paper aims to extent the concept of safety performance functions to be used in areal models of crash frequency. A multivariate spatial model is used for that purpose and compared to its univariate counterpart. Full Bayes hierarchical approach is used to estimate the models of crash frequency at canton level for Costa Rica. An intrinsic multivariate conditional autoregressive model is used for modeling spatial random effects. The results show that the multivariate spatial model performs better than its univariate counterpart in terms of the penalized goodness-of-fit measure Deviance Information Criteria. Additionally, the effects of the spatial smoothing due to the multivariate spatial random effects are evident in the estimation of excess equivalent property damage only crashes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A geostatistics-informed hierarchical sensitivity analysis method for complex groundwater flow and transport modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Heng; Chen, Xingyuan; Ye, Ming; Song, Xuehang; Zachara, John M.

2017-05-01

Sensitivity analysis is an important tool for development and improvement of mathematical models, especially for complex systems with a high dimension of spatially correlated parameters. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis has gained popularity because it can quantify the relative contribution of uncertainty from different sources. However, its computational cost increases dramatically with the complexity of the considered model and the dimension of model parameters. In this study, we developed a new sensitivity analysis method that integrates the concept of variance-based method with a hierarchical uncertainty quantification framework. Different uncertain inputs are grouped and organized into a multilayer framework based on their characteristics and dependency relationships to reduce the dimensionality of the sensitivity analysis. A set of new sensitivity indices are defined for the grouped inputs using the variance decomposition method. Using this methodology, we identified the most important uncertainty source for a dynamic groundwater flow and solute transport model at the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford site. The results indicate that boundary conditions and permeability field contribute the most uncertainty to the simulated head field and tracer plume, respectively. The relative contribution from each source varied spatially and temporally. By using a geostatistical approach to reduce the number of realizations needed for the sensitivity analysis, the computational cost of implementing the developed method was reduced to a practically manageable level. The developed sensitivity analysis method is generally applicable to a wide range of hydrologic and environmental problems that deal with high-dimensional spatially distributed input variables.

A Geostatistics-Informed Hierarchical Sensitivity Analysis Method for Complex Groundwater Flow and Transport Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, H.; Chen, X.; Ye, M.; Song, X.; Zachara, J. M.

2017-12-01

Sensitivity analysis is an important tool for development and improvement of mathematical models, especially for complex systems with a high dimension of spatially correlated parameters. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis has gained popularity because it can quantify the relative contribution of uncertainty from different sources. However, its computational cost increases dramatically with the complexity of the considered model and the dimension of model parameters. In this study we developed a new sensitivity analysis method that integrates the concept of variance-based method with a hierarchical uncertainty quantification framework. Different uncertain inputs are grouped and organized into a multi-layer framework based on their characteristics and dependency relationships to reduce the dimensionality of the sensitivity analysis. A set of new sensitivity indices are defined for the grouped inputs using the variance decomposition method. Using this methodology, we identified the most important uncertainty source for a dynamic groundwater flow and solute transport model at the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford site. The results indicate that boundary conditions and permeability field contribute the most uncertainty to the simulated head field and tracer plume, respectively. The relative contribution from each source varied spatially and temporally. By using a geostatistical approach to reduce the number of realizations needed for the sensitivity analysis, the computational cost of implementing the developed method was reduced to a practically manageable level. The developed sensitivity analysis method is generally applicable to a wide range of hydrologic and environmental problems that deal with high-dimensional spatially-distributed input variables.

COMBINING EVIDENCE ON AIR POLLUTION AND DAILY MORTALITY FROM 20 LARGEST U.S. CITIES: A HIERARCHICAL MODELING STRATEGY

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental science and management are fed by individual studies of pollution effects, often focused on single locations. Data are encountered data, typically from multiple sources and on different time and spatial scales. Statistical issues including publication bias and m...

Hierarchical stochastic modeling of large river ecosystems and fish growth across spatio-temporal scales and climate models: the Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Moran, Edward H.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.; Dey, Rima

2017-01-01

We present a hierarchical series of spatially decreasing and temporally increasing models to evaluate the uncertainty in the atmosphere – ocean global climate model (AOGCM) and the regional climate model (RCM) relative to the uncertainty in the somatic growth of the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). For effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, cli- mate output simulated by coarse-resolution AOGCMs and RCMs must be downscaled to basins to river hydrology to population response. One needs to transfer the information from these climate simulations down to the individual scale in a way that minimizes extrapolation and can account for spatio-temporal variability in the intervening stages. The goal is a framework to determine whether, given uncertainties in the climate models and the biological response, meaningful inference can still be made. The non-linear downscaling of climate information to the river scale requires that one realistically account for spatial and temporal variability across scale. Our down- scaling procedure includes the use of fixed/calibrated hydrological flow and temperature models coupled with a stochastically parameterized sturgeon bioenergetics model. We show that, although there is a large amount of uncertainty associated with both the climate model output and the fish growth process, one can establish significant differences in fish growth distributions between models, and between future and current climates for a given model.

Hierarchical models for estimating density from DNA mark-recapture studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, B.; Royle, J. Andrew; Wegan, M.T.

2009-01-01

Genetic sampling is increasingly used as a tool by wildlife biologists and managers to estimate abundance and density of species. Typically, DNA is used to identify individuals captured in an array of traps ( e. g., baited hair snares) from which individual encounter histories are derived. Standard methods for estimating the size of a closed population can be applied to such data. However, due to the movement of individuals on and off the trapping array during sampling, the area over which individuals are exposed to trapping is unknown, and so obtaining unbiased estimates of density has proved difficult. We propose a hierarchical spatial capture-recapture model which contains explicit models for the spatial point process governing the distribution of individuals and their exposure to (via movement) and detection by traps. Detection probability is modeled as a function of each individual's distance to the trap. We applied this model to a black bear (Ursus americanus) study conducted in 2006 using a hair-snare trap array in the Adirondack region of New York, USA. We estimated the density of bears to be 0.159 bears/km2, which is lower than the estimated density (0.410 bears/km2) based on standard closed population techniques. A Bayesian analysis of the model is fully implemented in the software program WinBUGS.

Hierarchical graphical-based human pose estimation via local multi-resolution convolutional neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Aichun; Wang, Tian; Snoussi, Hichem

2018-03-01

This paper addresses the problems of the graphical-based human pose estimation in still images, including the diversity of appearances and confounding background clutter. We present a new architecture for estimating human pose using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). Firstly, a Relative Mixture Deformable Model (RMDM) is defined by each pair of connected parts to compute the relative spatial information in the graphical model. Secondly, a Local Multi-Resolution Convolutional Neural Network (LMR-CNN) is proposed to train and learn the multi-scale representation of each body parts by combining different levels of part context. Thirdly, a LMR-CNN based hierarchical model is defined to explore the context information of limb parts. Finally, the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed deep learning approach for human pose estimation.

Spatial Random Effects Survival Models to Assess Geographical Inequalities in Dengue Fever Using Bayesian Approach: a Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astuti Thamrin, Sri; Taufik, Irfan

2018-03-01

Dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) is an infectious disease caused by dengue virus. The increasing number of people with DHF disease correlates with the neighbourhood, for example sub-districts, and the characteristics of the sub-districts are formed from individuals who are domiciled in the sub-districts. Data containing individuals and sub-districts is a hierarchical data structure, called multilevel analysis. Frequently encountered response variable of the data is the time until an event occurs. Multilevel and spatial models are being increasingly used to obtain substantive information on area-level inequalities in DHF survival. Using a case study approach, we report on the implications of using multilevel with spatial survival models to study geographical inequalities in all cause survival.

Community turnover of wood-inhabiting fungi across hierarchical spatial scales.

PubMed

Abrego, Nerea; García-Baquero, Gonzalo; Halme, Panu; Ovaskainen, Otso; Salcedo, Isabel

2014-01-01

For efficient use of conservation resources it is important to determine how species diversity changes across spatial scales. In many poorly known species groups little is known about at which spatial scales the conservation efforts should be focused. Here we examined how the community turnover of wood-inhabiting fungi is realised at three hierarchical levels, and how much of community variation is explained by variation in resource composition and spatial proximity. The hierarchical study design consisted of management type (fixed factor), forest site (random factor, nested within management type) and study plots (randomly placed plots within each study site). To examine how species richness varied across the three hierarchical scales, randomized species accumulation curves and additive partitioning of species richness were applied. To analyse variation in wood-inhabiting species and dead wood composition at each scale, linear and Permanova modelling approaches were used. Wood-inhabiting fungal communities were dominated by rare and infrequent species. The similarity of fungal communities was higher within sites and within management categories than among sites or between the two management categories, and it decreased with increasing distance among the sampling plots and with decreasing similarity of dead wood resources. However, only a small part of community variation could be explained by these factors. The species present in managed forests were in a large extent a subset of those species present in natural forests. Our results suggest that in particular the protection of rare species requires a large total area. As managed forests have only little additional value complementing the diversity of natural forests, the conservation of natural forests is the key to ecologically effective conservation. As the dissimilarity of fungal communities increases with distance, the conserved natural forest sites should be broadly distributed in space, yet the individual conserved areas should be large enough to ensure local persistence.

Community Turnover of Wood-Inhabiting Fungi across Hierarchical Spatial Scales

PubMed Central

Abrego, Nerea; García-Baquero, Gonzalo; Halme, Panu; Ovaskainen, Otso; Salcedo, Isabel

2014-01-01

For efficient use of conservation resources it is important to determine how species diversity changes across spatial scales. In many poorly known species groups little is known about at which spatial scales the conservation efforts should be focused. Here we examined how the community turnover of wood-inhabiting fungi is realised at three hierarchical levels, and how much of community variation is explained by variation in resource composition and spatial proximity. The hierarchical study design consisted of management type (fixed factor), forest site (random factor, nested within management type) and study plots (randomly placed plots within each study site). To examine how species richness varied across the three hierarchical scales, randomized species accumulation curves and additive partitioning of species richness were applied. To analyse variation in wood-inhabiting species and dead wood composition at each scale, linear and Permanova modelling approaches were used. Wood-inhabiting fungal communities were dominated by rare and infrequent species. The similarity of fungal communities was higher within sites and within management categories than among sites or between the two management categories, and it decreased with increasing distance among the sampling plots and with decreasing similarity of dead wood resources. However, only a small part of community variation could be explained by these factors. The species present in managed forests were in a large extent a subset of those species present in natural forests. Our results suggest that in particular the protection of rare species requires a large total area. As managed forests have only little additional value complementing the diversity of natural forests, the conservation of natural forests is the key to ecologically effective conservation. As the dissimilarity of fungal communities increases with distance, the conserved natural forest sites should be broadly distributed in space, yet the individual conserved areas should be large enough to ensure local persistence. PMID:25058128

Reduced basis ANOVA methods for partial differential equations with high-dimensional random inputs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liao, Qifeng, E-mail: liaoqf@shanghaitech.edu.cn; Lin, Guang, E-mail: guanglin@purdue.edu

2016-07-15

In this paper we present a reduced basis ANOVA approach for partial deferential equations (PDEs) with random inputs. The ANOVA method combined with stochastic collocation methods provides model reduction in high-dimensional parameter space through decomposing high-dimensional inputs into unions of low-dimensional inputs. In this work, to further reduce the computational cost, we investigate spatial low-rank structures in the ANOVA-collocation method, and develop efficient spatial model reduction techniques using hierarchically generated reduced bases. We present a general mathematical framework of the methodology, validate its accuracy and demonstrate its efficiency with numerical experiments.

Linear models of coregionalization for multivariate lattice data: Order-dependent and order-free cMCARs.

PubMed

MacNab, Ying C

2016-08-01

This paper concerns with multivariate conditional autoregressive models defined by linear combination of independent or correlated underlying spatial processes. Known as linear models of coregionalization, the method offers a systematic and unified approach for formulating multivariate extensions to a broad range of univariate conditional autoregressive models. The resulting multivariate spatial models represent classes of coregionalized multivariate conditional autoregressive models that enable flexible modelling of multivariate spatial interactions, yielding coregionalization models with symmetric or asymmetric cross-covariances of different spatial variation and smoothness. In the context of multivariate disease mapping, for example, they facilitate borrowing strength both over space and cross variables, allowing for more flexible multivariate spatial smoothing. Specifically, we present a broadened coregionalization framework to include order-dependent, order-free, and order-robust multivariate models; a new class of order-free coregionalized multivariate conditional autoregressives is introduced. We tackle computational challenges and present solutions that are integral for Bayesian analysis of these models. We also discuss two ways of computing deviance information criterion for comparison among competing hierarchical models with or without unidentifiable prior parameters. The models and related methodology are developed in the broad context of modelling multivariate data on spatial lattice and illustrated in the context of multivariate disease mapping. The coregionalization framework and related methods also present a general approach for building spatially structured cross-covariance functions for multivariate geostatistics. © The Author(s) 2016.

Hierarchical modeling of cluster size in wildlife surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew

2008-01-01

Clusters or groups of individuals are the fundamental unit of observation in many wildlife sampling problems, including aerial surveys of waterfowl, marine mammals, and ungulates. Explicit accounting of cluster size in models for estimating abundance is necessary because detection of individuals within clusters is not independent and detectability of clusters is likely to increase with cluster size. This induces a cluster size bias in which the average cluster size in the sample is larger than in the population at large. Thus, failure to account for the relationship between delectability and cluster size will tend to yield a positive bias in estimates of abundance or density. I describe a hierarchical modeling framework for accounting for cluster-size bias in animal sampling. The hierarchical model consists of models for the observation process conditional on the cluster size distribution and the cluster size distribution conditional on the total number of clusters. Optionally, a spatial model can be specified that describes variation in the total number of clusters per sample unit. Parameter estimation, model selection, and criticism may be carried out using conventional likelihood-based methods. An extension of the model is described for the situation where measurable covariates at the level of the sample unit are available. Several candidate models within the proposed class are evaluated for aerial survey data on mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos).

Delineating wetland catchments and modeling hydrologic ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In traditional watershed delineation and topographic modeling, surface depressions are generally treated as spurious features and simply removed from a digital elevation model (DEM) to enforce flow continuity of water across the topographic surface to the watershed outlets. In reality, however, many depressions in the DEM are actual wetland landscape features with seasonal to permanent inundation patterning characterized by nested hierarchical structures and dynamic filling–spilling–merging surface-water hydrological processes. Differentiating and appropriately processing such ecohydrologically meaningful features remains a major technical terrain-processing challenge, particularly as high-resolution spatial data are increasingly used to support modeling and geographic analysis needs. The objectives of this study were to delineate hierarchical wetland catchments and model their hydrologic connectivity using high-resolution lidar data and aerial imagery. The graph-theory-based contour tree method was used to delineate the hierarchical wetland catchments and characterize their geometric and topological properties. Potential hydrologic connectivity between wetlands and streams were simulated using the least-cost-path algorithm. The resulting flow network delineated potential flow paths connecting wetland depressions to each other or to the river network on scales finer than those available through the National Hydrography Dataset. The results demonstrated that

Conversion of methanol to propylene over hierarchical HZSM-5: the effect of Al spatial distribution.

PubMed

Li, Jianwen; Ma, Hongfang; Chen, Yan; Xu, Zhiqiang; Li, Chunzhong; Ying, Weiyong

2018-06-08

Different silicon sources caused diverse Al spatial distribution in HZSM-5, and this affected the hierarchical structures and catalytic performance of desilicated zeolites. After being treated with 0.1 M NaOH, HZSM-5 zeolites synthesized with silica sol exhibited relatively widely distributed mesopores and channels, and possessed highly improved propylene selectivity and activity stability.

Hierarchical subdivisions of the Columbia Plateau and Blue Mountains ecoregions, Oregon and Washington.

Treesearch

Sharon E. Clarke; Sandra A. Bryce

1997-01-01

This document presents two spatial scales of a hierarchical, ecoregional framework and provides a connection to both larger and smaller scale ecological classifications. The two spatial scales are subregions (1:250,000) and landscape-level ecoregions (1:100,000), or Level IV and Level V ecoregions. Level IV ecoregions were developed by the Environmental Protection...

Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grenfell, B. T.; Bjørnstad, O. N.; Kappey, J.

2001-12-01

Spatio-temporal travelling waves are striking manifestations of predator-prey and host-parasite dynamics. However, few systems are well enough documented both to detect repeated waves and to explain their interaction with spatio-temporal variations in population structure and demography. Here, we demonstrate recurrent epidemic travelling waves in an exhaustive spatio-temporal data set for measles in England and Wales. We use wavelet phase analysis, which allows for dynamical non-stationarity-a complication in interpreting spatio-temporal patterns in these and many other ecological time series. In the pre-vaccination era, conspicuous hierarchical waves of infection moved regionally from large cities to small towns; the introduction of measles vaccination restricted but did not eliminate this hierarchical contagion. A mechanistic stochastic model suggests a dynamical explanation for the waves-spread via infective `sparks' from large `core' cities to smaller `satellite' towns. Thus, the spatial hierarchy of host population structure is a prerequisite for these infection waves.

A hierarchical Bayesian model for understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of the intestinal epithelium

PubMed Central

Parker, Aimée; Pin, Carmen; Carding, Simon R.; Watson, Alastair J. M.; Byrne, Helen M.

2017-01-01

Our work addresses two key challenges, one biological and one methodological. First, we aim to understand how proliferation and cell migration rates in the intestinal epithelium are related under healthy, damaged (Ara-C treated) and recovering conditions, and how these relations can be used to identify mechanisms of repair and regeneration. We analyse new data, presented in more detail in a companion paper, in which BrdU/IdU cell-labelling experiments were performed under these respective conditions. Second, in considering how to more rigorously process these data and interpret them using mathematical models, we use a probabilistic, hierarchical approach. This provides a best-practice approach for systematically modelling and understanding the uncertainties that can otherwise undermine the generation of reliable conclusions—uncertainties in experimental measurement and treatment, difficult-to-compare mathematical models of underlying mechanisms, and unknown or unobserved parameters. Both spatially discrete and continuous mechanistic models are considered and related via hierarchical conditional probability assumptions. We perform model checks on both in-sample and out-of-sample datasets and use them to show how to test possible model improvements and assess the robustness of our conclusions. We conclude, for the present set of experiments, that a primarily proliferation-driven model suffices to predict labelled cell dynamics over most time-scales. PMID:28753601

A hierarchical Bayesian model for understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of the intestinal epithelium.

PubMed

Maclaren, Oliver J; Parker, Aimée; Pin, Carmen; Carding, Simon R; Watson, Alastair J M; Fletcher, Alexander G; Byrne, Helen M; Maini, Philip K

2017-07-01

Our work addresses two key challenges, one biological and one methodological. First, we aim to understand how proliferation and cell migration rates in the intestinal epithelium are related under healthy, damaged (Ara-C treated) and recovering conditions, and how these relations can be used to identify mechanisms of repair and regeneration. We analyse new data, presented in more detail in a companion paper, in which BrdU/IdU cell-labelling experiments were performed under these respective conditions. Second, in considering how to more rigorously process these data and interpret them using mathematical models, we use a probabilistic, hierarchical approach. This provides a best-practice approach for systematically modelling and understanding the uncertainties that can otherwise undermine the generation of reliable conclusions-uncertainties in experimental measurement and treatment, difficult-to-compare mathematical models of underlying mechanisms, and unknown or unobserved parameters. Both spatially discrete and continuous mechanistic models are considered and related via hierarchical conditional probability assumptions. We perform model checks on both in-sample and out-of-sample datasets and use them to show how to test possible model improvements and assess the robustness of our conclusions. We conclude, for the present set of experiments, that a primarily proliferation-driven model suffices to predict labelled cell dynamics over most time-scales.

A Multi-modal, Discriminative and Spatially Invariant CNN for RGB-D Object Labeling.

PubMed

Asif, Umar; Bennamoun, Mohammed; Sohel, Ferdous

2017-08-30

While deep convolutional neural networks have shown a remarkable success in image classification, the problems of inter-class similarities, intra-class variances, the effective combination of multimodal data, and the spatial variability in images of objects remain to be major challenges. To address these problems, this paper proposes a novel framework to learn a discriminative and spatially invariant classification model for object and indoor scene recognition using multimodal RGB-D imagery. This is achieved through three postulates: 1) spatial invariance - this is achieved by combining a spatial transformer network with a deep convolutional neural network to learn features which are invariant to spatial translations, rotations, and scale changes, 2) high discriminative capability - this is achieved by introducing Fisher encoding within the CNN architecture to learn features which have small inter-class similarities and large intra-class compactness, and 3) multimodal hierarchical fusion - this is achieved through the regularization of semantic segmentation to a multi-modal CNN architecture, where class probabilities are estimated at different hierarchical levels (i.e., imageand pixel-levels), and fused into a Conditional Random Field (CRF)- based inference hypothesis, the optimization of which produces consistent class labels in RGB-D images. Extensive experimental evaluations on RGB-D object and scene datasets, and live video streams (acquired from Kinect) show that our framework produces superior object and scene classification results compared to the state-of-the-art methods.

Improving the Calibration of the SN Ia Anchor Datasets with a Bayesian Hierarchal Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Currie, Miles; Rubin, David

2018-01-01

Inter-survey calibration remains one of the largest systematic uncertainties in SN Ia cosmology today. Ideally, each survey would measure their system throughputs and observe well characterized spectrophotometric standard stars, but many important surveys have not done so. For these surveys, we calibrate using tertiary survey stars tied to SDSS and Pan-STARRS. We improve on previous efforts by taking the spatially variable response of each telescope/camera into account, and using improved color transformations in the surveys’ natural instrumental photometric system. We use a global hierarchical model of the data, automatically providing a covariance matrix of magnitude offsets and bandpass shifts which reduces the systematic uncertainty in inter-survey calibration, thereby providing better cosmological constraints.

Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework.

PubMed

Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

2014-06-01

Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework†

PubMed Central

Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

2014-01-01

Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:25505370

Biologically Inspired Model for Inference of 3D Shape from Texture

PubMed Central

Gomez, Olman; Neumann, Heiko

2016-01-01

A biologically inspired model architecture for inferring 3D shape from texture is proposed. The model is hierarchically organized into modules roughly corresponding to visual cortical areas in the ventral stream. Initial orientation selective filtering decomposes the input into low-level orientation and spatial frequency representations. Grouping of spatially anisotropic orientation responses builds sketch-like representations of surface shape. Gradients in orientation fields and subsequent integration infers local surface geometry and globally consistent 3D depth. From the distributions in orientation responses summed in frequency, an estimate of the tilt and slant of the local surface can be obtained. The model suggests how 3D shape can be inferred from texture patterns and their image appearance in a hierarchically organized processing cascade along the cortical ventral stream. The proposed model integrates oriented texture gradient information that is encoded in distributed maps of orientation-frequency representations. The texture energy gradient information is defined by changes in the grouped summed normalized orientation-frequency response activity extracted from the textured object image. This activity is integrated by directed fields to generate a 3D shape representation of a complex object with depth ordering proportional to the fields output, with higher activity denoting larger distance in relative depth away from the viewer. PMID:27649387

Modelling the mechanics of partially mineralized collagen fibrils, fibres and tissue

PubMed Central

Liu, Yanxin; Thomopoulos, Stavros; Chen, Changqing; Birman, Victor; Buehler, Markus J.; Genin, Guy M.

2014-01-01

Progressive stiffening of collagen tissue by bioapatite mineral is important physiologically, but the details of this stiffening are uncertain. Unresolved questions about the details of the accommodation of bioapatite within and upon collagen's hierarchical structure have posed a central hurdle, but recent microscopy data resolve several major questions. These data suggest how collagen accommodates bioapatite at the lowest relevant hierarchical level (collagen fibrils), and suggest several possibilities for the progressive accommodation of bioapatite at higher hierarchical length scales (fibres and tissue). We developed approximations for the stiffening of collagen across spatial hierarchies based upon these data, and connected models across hierarchies levels to estimate mineralization-dependent tissue-level mechanics. In the five possible sequences of mineralization studied, percolation of the bioapatite phase proved to be an important determinant of the degree of stiffening by bioapatite. The models were applied to study one important instance of partially mineralized tissue, which occurs at the attachment of tendon to bone. All sequences of mineralization considered reproduced experimental observations of a region of tissue between tendon and bone that is more compliant than either tendon or bone, but the size and nature of this region depended strongly upon the sequence of mineralization. These models and observations have implications for engineered tissue scaffolds at the attachment of tendon to bone, bone development and graded biomimetic attachment of dissimilar hierarchical materials in general. PMID:24352669

The Population Consequences of Disturbance Model Application to North Atlantic Right Whales (Eubalaena glacialis)

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

marine mammal to its population status. Recent developments in the PCAD working group have led to modified analyses (now defined as PCOD – Population...variability, and the spatial characteristics of human activities into the PCOD model. Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public...consequences of disturbance ( PCOD ) (Thomas et al. 2011). OBJECTIVES The objectives for this study are to: 1) develop a Hierarchical Bayesian Model

Efficiently computing and deriving topological relation matrices between complex regions with broad boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Shihong; Guo, Luo; Wang, Qiao; Qin, Qimin

The extended 9-intersection matrix is used to formalize topological relations between uncertain regions while it is designed to satisfy the requirements at a concept level, and to deal with the complex regions with broad boundaries (CBBRs) as a whole without considering their hierarchical structures. In contrast to simple regions with broad boundaries, CBBRs have complex hierarchical structures. Therefore, it is necessary to take into account the complex hierarchical structure and to represent the topological relations between all regions in CBBRs as a relation matrix, rather than using the extended 9-intersection matrix to determine topological relations. In this study, a tree model is first used to represent the intrinsic configuration of CBBRs hierarchically. Then, the reasoning tables are presented for deriving topological relations between child, parent and sibling regions from the relations between two given regions in CBBRs. Finally, based on the reasoning, efficient methods are proposed to compute and derive the topological relation matrix. The proposed methods can be incorporated into spatial databases to facilitate geometric-oriented applications.

A Bayesian hierarchical model of environmental impact on human mortality and its spatial variation in the United States 2000-2005

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/Methods Many environmental factors influence human mortality simultaneously. However, assessing their cumulative effects remains a challenging task. In this study we used the Environmental Quality Index (EQI), developed by the U.S. EPA, as a measure of overall...

Hierarchical animal movement models for population-level inference

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, Mevin B.; Buderman, Frances E.; Brost, Brian M.; Hanks, Ephraim M.; Ivans, Jacob S.

2016-01-01

New methods for modeling animal movement based on telemetry data are developed regularly. With advances in telemetry capabilities, animal movement models are becoming increasingly sophisticated. Despite a need for population-level inference, animal movement models are still predominantly developed for individual-level inference. Most efforts to upscale the inference to the population level are either post hoc or complicated enough that only the developer can implement the model. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide an ideal platform for the development of population-level animal movement models but can be challenging to fit due to computational limitations or extensive tuning required. We propose a two-stage procedure for fitting hierarchical animal movement models to telemetry data. The two-stage approach is statistically rigorous and allows one to fit individual-level movement models separately, then resample them using a secondary MCMC algorithm. The primary advantages of the two-stage approach are that the first stage is easily parallelizable and the second stage is completely unsupervised, allowing for an automated fitting procedure in many cases. We demonstrate the two-stage procedure with two applications of animal movement models. The first application involves a spatial point process approach to modeling telemetry data, and the second involves a more complicated continuous-time discrete-space animal movement model. We fit these models to simulated data and real telemetry data arising from a population of monitored Canada lynx in Colorado, USA.

HOTS: A Hierarchy of Event-Based Time-Surfaces for Pattern Recognition.

PubMed

Lagorce, Xavier; Orchard, Garrick; Galluppi, Francesco; Shi, Bertram E; Benosman, Ryad B

2017-07-01

This paper describes novel event-based spatio-temporal features called time-surfaces and how they can be used to create a hierarchical event-based pattern recognition architecture. Unlike existing hierarchical architectures for pattern recognition, the presented model relies on a time oriented approach to extract spatio-temporal features from the asynchronously acquired dynamics of a visual scene. These dynamics are acquired using biologically inspired frameless asynchronous event-driven vision sensors. Similarly to cortical structures, subsequent layers in our hierarchy extract increasingly abstract features using increasingly large spatio-temporal windows. The central concept is to use the rich temporal information provided by events to create contexts in the form of time-surfaces which represent the recent temporal activity within a local spatial neighborhood. We demonstrate that this concept can robustly be used at all stages of an event-based hierarchical model. First layer feature units operate on groups of pixels, while subsequent layer feature units operate on the output of lower level feature units. We report results on a previously published 36 class character recognition task and a four class canonical dynamic card pip task, achieving near 100 percent accuracy on each. We introduce a new seven class moving face recognition task, achieving 79 percent accuracy.This paper describes novel event-based spatio-temporal features called time-surfaces and how they can be used to create a hierarchical event-based pattern recognition architecture. Unlike existing hierarchical architectures for pattern recognition, the presented model relies on a time oriented approach to extract spatio-temporal features from the asynchronously acquired dynamics of a visual scene. These dynamics are acquired using biologically inspired frameless asynchronous event-driven vision sensors. Similarly to cortical structures, subsequent layers in our hierarchy extract increasingly abstract features using increasingly large spatio-temporal windows. The central concept is to use the rich temporal information provided by events to create contexts in the form of time-surfaces which represent the recent temporal activity within a local spatial neighborhood. We demonstrate that this concept can robustly be used at all stages of an event-based hierarchical model. First layer feature units operate on groups of pixels, while subsequent layer feature units operate on the output of lower level feature units. We report results on a previously published 36 class character recognition task and a four class canonical dynamic card pip task, achieving near 100 percent accuracy on each. We introduce a new seven class moving face recognition task, achieving 79 percent accuracy.

Bayesian hierarchical models for smoothing in two-phase studies, with application to small area estimation.

PubMed

Ross, Michelle; Wakefield, Jon

2015-10-01

Two-phase study designs are appealing since they allow for the oversampling of rare sub-populations which improves efficiency. In this paper we describe a Bayesian hierarchical model for the analysis of two-phase data. Such a model is particularly appealing in a spatial setting in which random effects are introduced to model between-area variability. In such a situation, one may be interested in estimating regression coefficients or, in the context of small area estimation, in reconstructing the population totals by strata. The efficiency gains of the two-phase sampling scheme are compared to standard approaches using 2011 birth data from the research triangle area of North Carolina. We show that the proposed method can overcome small sample difficulties and improve on existing techniques. We conclude that the two-phase design is an attractive approach for small area estimation.

Multi-mode clustering model for hierarchical wireless sensor networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xiangdong; Li, Yongfu; Xu, Huifen

2017-03-01

The topology management, i.e., clusters maintenance, of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is still a challenge due to its numerous nodes, diverse application scenarios and limited resources as well as complex dynamics. To address this issue, a multi-mode clustering model (M2 CM) is proposed to maintain the clusters for hierarchical WSNs in this study. In particular, unlike the traditional time-trigger model based on the whole-network and periodic style, the M2 CM is proposed based on the local and event-trigger operations. In addition, an adaptive local maintenance algorithm is designed for the broken clusters in the WSNs using the spatial-temporal demand changes accordingly. Numerical experiments are performed using the NS2 network simulation platform. Results validate the effectiveness of the proposed model with respect to the network maintenance costs, node energy consumption and transmitted data as well as the network lifetime.

A Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Scheme for Estimating Erosion Rates Under Current Climate Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowman, L.; Barros, A. P.

2014-12-01

Computational modeling of surface erosion processes is inherently difficult because of the four-dimensional nature of the problem and the multiple temporal and spatial scales that govern individual mechanisms. Landscapes are modified via surface and fluvial erosion and exhumation, each of which takes place over a range of time scales. Traditional field measurements of erosion/exhumation rates are scale dependent, often valid for a single point-wise location or averaging over large aerial extents and periods with intense and mild erosion. We present a method of remotely estimating erosion rates using a Bayesian hierarchical model based upon the stream power erosion law (SPEL). A Bayesian approach allows for estimating erosion rates using the deterministic relationship given by the SPEL and data on channel slopes and precipitation at the basin and sub-basin scale. The spatial scale associated with this framework is the elevation class, where each class is characterized by distinct morphologic behavior observed through different modes in the distribution of basin outlet elevations. Interestingly, the distributions of first-order outlets are similar in shape and extent to the distribution of precipitation events (i.e. individual storms) over a 14-year period between 1998-2011. We demonstrate an application of the Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework for five basins and one intermontane basin located in the central Andes between 5S and 20S. Using remotely sensed data of current annual precipitation rates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and topography from a high resolution (3 arc-seconds) digital elevation map (DEM), our erosion rate estimates are consistent with decadal-scale estimates based on landslide mapping and sediment flux observations and 1-2 orders of magnitude larger than most millennial and million year timescale estimates from thermochronology and cosmogenic nuclides.

Evaluation of spatio-temporal Bayesian models for the spread of infectious diseases in oil palm.

PubMed

Denis, Marie; Cochard, Benoît; Syahputra, Indra; de Franqueville, Hubert; Tisné, Sébastien

2018-02-01

In the field of epidemiology, studies are often focused on mapping diseases in relation to time and space. Hierarchical modeling is a common flexible and effective tool for modeling problems related to disease spread. In the context of oil palm plantations infected by the fungal pathogen Ganoderma boninense, we propose and compare two spatio-temporal hierarchical Bayesian models addressing the lack of information on propagation modes and transmission vectors. We investigate two alternative process models to study the unobserved mechanism driving the infection process. The models help gain insight into the spatio-temporal dynamic of the infection by identifying a genetic component in the disease spread and by highlighting a spatial component acting at the end of the experiment. In this challenging context, we propose models that provide assumptions on the unobserved mechanism driving the infection process while making short-term predictions using ready-to-use software. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Spatial Poisson Hurdle Model for Exploring Geographic Variation in Emergency Department Visits

PubMed Central

Neelon, Brian; Ghosh, Pulak; Loebs, Patrick F.

2012-01-01

Summary We develop a spatial Poisson hurdle model to explore geographic variation in emergency department (ED) visits while accounting for zero inflation. The model consists of two components: a Bernoulli component that models the probability of any ED use (i.e., at least one ED visit per year), and a truncated Poisson component that models the number of ED visits given use. Together, these components address both the abundance of zeros and the right-skewed nature of the nonzero counts. The model has a hierarchical structure that incorporates patient- and area-level covariates, as well as spatially correlated random effects for each areal unit. Because regions with high rates of ED use are likely to have high expected counts among users, we model the spatial random effects via a bivariate conditionally autoregressive (CAR) prior, which introduces dependence between the components and provides spatial smoothing and sharing of information across neighboring regions. Using a simulation study, we show that modeling the between-component correlation reduces bias in parameter estimates. We adopt a Bayesian estimation approach, and the model can be fit using standard Bayesian software. We apply the model to a study of patient and neighborhood factors influencing emergency department use in Durham County, North Carolina. PMID:23543242

Marker-Based Hierarchical Segmentation and Classification Approach for Hyperspectral Imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tarabalka, Yuliya; Tilton, James C.; Benediktsson, Jon Atli; Chanussot, Jocelyn

2011-01-01

The Hierarchical SEGmentation (HSEG) algorithm, which is a combination of hierarchical step-wise optimization and spectral clustering, has given good performances for hyperspectral image analysis. This technique produces at its output a hierarchical set of image segmentations. The automated selection of a single segmentation level is often necessary. We propose and investigate the use of automatically selected markers for this purpose. In this paper, a novel Marker-based HSEG (M-HSEG) method for spectral-spatial classification of hyperspectral images is proposed. First, pixelwise classification is performed and the most reliably classified pixels are selected as markers, with the corresponding class labels. Then, a novel constrained marker-based HSEG algorithm is applied, resulting in a spectral-spatial classification map. The experimental results show that the proposed approach yields accurate segmentation and classification maps, and thus is attractive for hyperspectral image analysis.

Generalized estimators of avian abundance from count survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew

2004-01-01

I consider modeling avian abundance from spatially referenced bird count data collected according to common protocols such as capture?recapture, multiple observer, removal sampling and simple point counts. Small sample sizes and large numbers of parameters have motivated many analyses that disregard the spatial indexing of the data, and thus do not provide an adequate treatment of spatial structure. I describe a general framework for modeling spatially replicated data that regards local abundance as a random process, motivated by the view that the set of spatially referenced local populations (at the sample locations) constitute a metapopulation. Under this view, attention can be focused on developing a model for the variation in local abundance independent of the sampling protocol being considered. The metapopulation model structure, when combined with the data generating model, define a simple hierarchical model that can be analyzed using conventional methods. The proposed modeling framework is completely general in the sense that broad classes of metapopulation models may be considered, site level covariates on detection and abundance may be considered, and estimates of abundance and related quantities may be obtained for sample locations, groups of locations, unsampled locations. Two brief examples are given, the first involving simple point counts, and the second based on temporary removal counts. Extension of these models to open systems is briefly discussed.

HTM Spatial Pooler With Memristor Crossbar Circuits for Sparse Biometric Recognition.

PubMed

James, Alex Pappachen; Fedorova, Irina; Ibrayev, Timur; Kudithipudi, Dhireesha

2017-06-01

Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) is an online machine learning algorithm that emulates the neo-cortex. The development of a scalable on-chip HTM architecture is an open research area. The two core substructures of HTM are spatial pooler and temporal memory. In this work, we propose a new Spatial Pooler circuit design with parallel memristive crossbar arrays for the 2D columns. The proposed design was validated on two different benchmark datasets, face recognition, and speech recognition. The circuits are simulated and analyzed using a practical memristor device model and 0.18 μm IBM CMOS technology model. The databases AR, YALE, ORL, and UFI, are used to test the performance of the design in face recognition. TIMIT dataset is used for the speech recognition.

Computational Properties of the Hippocampus Increase the Efficiency of Goal-Directed Foraging through Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning

PubMed Central

Chalmers, Eric; Luczak, Artur; Gruber, Aaron J.

2016-01-01

The mammalian brain is thought to use a version of Model-based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL) to guide “goal-directed” behavior, wherein animals consider goals and make plans to acquire desired outcomes. However, conventional MBRL algorithms do not fully explain animals' ability to rapidly adapt to environmental changes, or learn multiple complex tasks. They also require extensive computation, suggesting that goal-directed behavior is cognitively expensive. We propose here that key features of processing in the hippocampus support a flexible MBRL mechanism for spatial navigation that is computationally efficient and can adapt quickly to change. We investigate this idea by implementing a computational MBRL framework that incorporates features inspired by computational properties of the hippocampus: a hierarchical representation of space, “forward sweeps” through future spatial trajectories, and context-driven remapping of place cells. We find that a hierarchical abstraction of space greatly reduces the computational load (mental effort) required for adaptation to changing environmental conditions, and allows efficient scaling to large problems. It also allows abstract knowledge gained at high levels to guide adaptation to new obstacles. Moreover, a context-driven remapping mechanism allows learning and memory of multiple tasks. Simulating dorsal or ventral hippocampal lesions in our computational framework qualitatively reproduces behavioral deficits observed in rodents with analogous lesions. The framework may thus embody key features of how the brain organizes model-based RL to efficiently solve navigation and other difficult tasks. PMID:28018203

Hierarchical human action recognition around sleeping using obscured posture information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudo, Yuta; Sashida, Takehiko; Aoki, Yoshimitsu

2015-04-01

This paper presents a new approach for human action recognition around sleeping with the human body parts locations and the positional relationship between human and sleeping environment. Body parts are estimated from the depth image obtained by a time-of-flight (TOF) sensor using oriented 3D normal vector. Issues in action recognition of sleeping situation are the demand of availability in darkness, and hiding of the human body by duvets. Therefore, the extraction of image features is difficult since color and edge features are obscured by covers. Thus, first in our method, positions of four parts of the body (head, torso, thigh, and lower leg) are estimated by using the shape model of bodily surface constructed by oriented 3D normal vector. This shape model can represent the surface shape of rough body, and is effective in robust posture estimation of the body hidden with duvets. Then, action descriptor is extracted from the position of each body part. The descriptor includes temporal variation of each part of the body and spatial vector of position of the parts and the bed. Furthermore, this paper proposes hierarchical action classes and classifiers to improve the indistinct action classification. Classifiers are composed of two layers, and recognize human action by using the action descriptor. First layer focuses on spatial descriptor and classifies action roughly. Second layer focuses on temporal descriptor and classifies action finely. This approach achieves a robust recognition of obscured human by using the posture information and the hierarchical action recognition.

Synchrony, Waves, and Spatial Hierarchies in the Spread of Influenza

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viboud, Cécile; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; Smith, David L.; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

2006-04-01

Quantifying long-range dissemination of infectious diseases is a key issue in their dynamics and control. Here, we use influenza-related mortality data to analyze the between-state progression of interpandemic influenza in the United States over the past 30 years. Outbreaks show hierarchical spatial spread evidenced by higher pairwise synchrony between more populous states. Seasons with higher influenza mortality are associated with higher disease transmission and more rapid spread than are mild ones. The regional spread of infection correlates more closely with rates of movement of people to and from their workplaces (workflows) than with geographical distance. Workflows are described in turn by a gravity model, with a rapid decay of commuting up to around 100 km and a long tail of rare longer range flow. A simple epidemiological model, based on the gravity formulation, captures the observed increase of influenza spatial synchrony with transmissibility; high transmission allows influenza to spread rapidly beyond local spatial constraints.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wainwright, Haruko M.; Flores Orozco, Adrian; Bucker, Matthias

In floodplain environments, a naturally reduced zone (NRZ) is considered to be a common biogeochemical hot spot, having distinct microbial and geochemical characteristics. Although important for understanding their role in mediating floodplain biogeochemical processes, mapping the subsurface distribution of NRZs over the dimensions of a floodplain is challenging, as conventional wellbore data are typically spatially limited and the distribution of NRZs is heterogeneous. In this work, we present an innovative methodology for the probabilistic mapping of NRZs within a three-dimensional (3-D) subsurface domain using induced polarization imaging, which is a noninvasive geophysical technique. Measurements consist of surface geophysical surveys andmore » drilling-recovered sediments at the U.S. Department of Energy field site near Rifle, CO (USA). Inversion of surface time domain-induced polarization (TDIP) data yielded 3-D images of the complex electrical resistivity, in terms of magnitude and phase, which are associated with mineral precipitation and other lithological properties. By extracting the TDIP data values colocated with wellbore lithological logs, we found that the NRZs have a different distribution of resistivity and polarization from the other aquifer sediments. To estimate the spatial distribution of NRZs, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to integrate the geophysical and wellbore data. In addition, the resistivity images were used to estimate hydrostratigraphic interfaces under the floodplain. Validation results showed that the integration of electrical imaging and wellbore data using a Bayesian hierarchical model was capable of mapping spatially heterogeneous interfaces and NRZ distributions thereby providing a minimally invasive means to parameterize a hydrobiogeochemical model of the floodplain.« less

Spatio-Temporal Structure, Path Characteristics, and Perceptual Grouping in Immediate Serial Spatial Recall

PubMed Central

De Lillo, Carlo; Kirby, Melissa; Poole, Daniel

2016-01-01

Immediate serial spatial recall measures the ability to retain sequences of locations in short-term memory and is considered the spatial equivalent of digit span. It is tested by requiring participants to reproduce sequences of movements performed by an experimenter or displayed on a monitor. Different organizational factors dramatically affect serial spatial recall but they are often confounded or underspecified. Untangling them is crucial for the characterization of working-memory models and for establishing the contribution of structure and memory capacity to spatial span. We report five experiments assessing the relative role and independence of factors that have been reported in the literature. Experiment 1 disentangled the effects of spatial clustering and path-length by manipulating the distance of items displayed on a touchscreen monitor. Long-path sequences segregated by spatial clusters were compared with short-path sequences not segregated by clusters. Recall was more accurate for sequences segregated by clusters independently from path-length. Experiment 2 featured conditions where temporal pauses were introduced between or within cluster boundaries during the presentation of sequences with the same paths. Thus, the temporal structure of the sequences was either consistent or inconsistent with a hierarchical representation based on segmentation by spatial clusters but the effect of structure could not be confounded with effects of path-characteristics. Pauses at cluster boundaries yielded more accurate recall, as predicted by a hierarchical model. In Experiment 3, the systematic manipulation of sequence structure, path-length, and presence of path-crossings of sequences showed that structure explained most of the variance, followed by the presence/absence of path-crossings, and path-length. Experiments 4 and 5 replicated the results of the previous experiments in immersive virtual reality navigation tasks where the viewpoint of the observer changed dynamically during encoding and recall. This suggested that the effects of structure in spatial span are not dependent on perceptual grouping processes induced by the aerial view of the stimulus array typically afforded by spatial recall tasks. These results demonstrate the independence of coding strategies based on structure from effects of path characteristics and perceptual grouping in immediate serial spatial recall. PMID:27891101

Delineating wetland catchments and modeling hydrologic connectivity using lidar data and aerial imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qiusheng; Lane, Charles R.

2017-07-01

In traditional watershed delineation and topographic modeling, surface depressions are generally treated as spurious features and simply removed from a digital elevation model (DEM) to enforce flow continuity of water across the topographic surface to the watershed outlets. In reality, however, many depressions in the DEM are actual wetland landscape features with seasonal to permanent inundation patterning characterized by nested hierarchical structures and dynamic filling-spilling-merging surface-water hydrological processes. Differentiating and appropriately processing such ecohydrologically meaningful features remains a major technical terrain-processing challenge, particularly as high-resolution spatial data are increasingly used to support modeling and geographic analysis needs. The objectives of this study were to delineate hierarchical wetland catchments and model their hydrologic connectivity using high-resolution lidar data and aerial imagery. The graph-theory-based contour tree method was used to delineate the hierarchical wetland catchments and characterize their geometric and topological properties. Potential hydrologic connectivity between wetlands and streams were simulated using the least-cost-path algorithm. The resulting flow network delineated potential flow paths connecting wetland depressions to each other or to the river network on scales finer than those available through the National Hydrography Dataset. The results demonstrated that our proposed framework is promising for improving overland flow simulation and hydrologic connectivity analysis.

Modeling the distribution of colonial species to improve estimation of plankton concentration in ballast water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajakaruna, Harshana; VandenByllaardt, Julie; Kydd, Jocelyn; Bailey, Sarah

2018-03-01

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set limits on allowable plankton concentrations in ballast water discharge to minimize aquatic invasions globally. Previous guidance on ballast water sampling and compliance decision thresholds was based on the assumption that probability distributions of plankton are Poisson when spatially homogenous, or negative binomial when heterogeneous. We propose a hierarchical probability model, which incorporates distributions at the level of particles (i.e., discrete individuals plus colonies per unit volume) and also within particles (i.e., individuals per particle) to estimate the average plankton concentration in ballast water. We examined the performance of the models using data for plankton in the size class ≥ 10 μm and < 50 μm, collected from five different depths of a ballast tank of a commercial ship in three independent surveys. We show that the data fit to the negative binomial and the hierarchical probability models equally well, with both models performing better than the Poisson model at the scale of our sampling. The hierarchical probability model, which accounts for both the individuals and the colonies in a sample, reduces the uncertainty associated with the concentration estimation, and improves the power of rejecting the decision on ship's compliance when a ship does not truly comply with the standard. We show examples of how to test ballast water compliance using the above models.

Do marginalized neighbourhoods have less healthy retail food environments? An analysis using Bayesian spatial latent factor and hurdle models.

PubMed

Luan, Hui; Minaker, Leia M; Law, Jane

2016-08-22

Findings of whether marginalized neighbourhoods have less healthy retail food environments (RFE) are mixed across countries, in part because inconsistent approaches have been used to characterize RFE 'healthfulness' and marginalization, and researchers have used non-spatial statistical methods to respond to this ultimately spatial issue. This study uses in-store features to categorize healthy and less healthy food outlets. Bayesian spatial hierarchical models are applied to explore the association between marginalization dimensions and RFE healthfulness (i.e., relative healthy food access that modelled via a probability distribution) at various geographical scales. Marginalization dimensions are derived from a spatial latent factor model. Zero-inflation occurring at the walkable-distance scale is accounted for with a spatial hurdle model. Neighbourhoods with higher residential instability, material deprivation, and population density are more likely to have access to healthy food outlets within a walkable distance from a binary 'have' or 'not have' access perspective. At the walkable distance scale however, materially deprived neighbourhoods are found to have less healthy RFE (lower relative healthy food access). Food intervention programs should be developed for striking the balance between healthy and less healthy food access in the study region as well as improving opportunities for residents to buy and consume foods consistent with dietary recommendations.

Integration of multi-disciplinary geospatial data for delineating agroecosystem uniform management zones.

PubMed

Liu, Huanjun; Huffman, Ted; Liu, Jiangui; Li, Zhe; Daneshfar, Bahram; Zhang, Xinle

2015-01-01

Understanding agricultural ecosystems and their complex interactions with the environment is important for improving agricultural sustainability and environmental protection. Developing the necessary understanding requires approaches that integrate multi-source geospatial data and interdisciplinary relationships at different spatial scales. In order to identify and delineate landscape units representing relatively homogenous biophysical properties and eco-environmental functions at different spatial scales, a hierarchical system of uniform management zones (UMZ) is proposed. The UMZ hierarchy consists of seven levels of units at different spatial scales, namely site-specific, field, local, regional, country, continent, and globe. Relatively few studies have focused on the identification of the two middle levels of units in the hierarchy, namely the local UMZ (LUMZ) and the regional UMZ (RUMZ), which prevents true eco-environmental studies from being carried out across the full range of scales. This study presents a methodology to delineate LUMZ and RUMZ spatial units using land cover, soil, and remote sensing data. A set of objective criteria were defined and applied to evaluate the within-zone homogeneity and between-zone separation of the delineated zones. The approach was applied in a farming and forestry region in southeastern Ontario, Canada, and the methodology was shown to be objective, flexible, and applicable with commonly available spatial data. The hierarchical delineation of UMZs can be used as a tool to organize the spatial structure of agricultural landscapes, to understand spatial relationships between cropping practices and natural resources, and to target areas for application of specific environmental process models and place-based policy interventions.

An improved spatial contour tree constructed method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Yi; Zhang, Ling; Guilbert, Eric; Long, Yi

2018-05-01

Contours are important data to delineate the landform on a map. A contour tree provides an object-oriented description of landforms and can be used to enrich the topological information. The traditional contour tree is used to store topological relationships between contours in a hierarchical structure and allows for the identification of eminences and depressions as sets of nested contours. This research proposes an improved contour tree so-called spatial contour tree that contains not only the topological but also the geometric information. It can be regarded as a terrain skeleton in 3-dimention, and it is established based on the spatial nodes of contours which have the latitude, longitude and elevation information. The spatial contour tree is built by connecting spatial nodes from low to high elevation for a positive landform, and from high to low elevation for a negative landform to form a hierarchical structure. The connection between two spatial nodes can provide the real distance and direction as a Euclidean vector in 3-dimention. In this paper, the construction method is tested in the experiment, and the results are discussed. The proposed hierarchical structure is in 3-demintion and can show the skeleton inside a terrain. The structure, where all nodes have geo-information, can be used to distinguish different landforms and applied for contour generalization with consideration of geographic characteristics.

Spatial modelling and mapping of female genital mutilation in Kenya.

PubMed

Achia, Thomas N O

2014-03-25

Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) is still prevalent in several communities in Kenya and other areas in Africa, as well as being practiced by some migrants from African countries living in other parts of the world. This study aimed at detecting clustering of FGM/C in Kenya, and identifying those areas within the country where women still intend to continue the practice. A broader goal of the study was to identify geographical areas where the practice continues unabated and where broad intervention strategies need to be introduced. The prevalence of FGM/C was investigated using the 2008 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) data. The 2008 KDHS used a multistage stratified random sampling plan to select women of reproductive age (15-49 years) and asked questions concerning their FGM/C status and their support for the continuation of FGM/C. A spatial scan statistical analysis was carried out using SaTScan™ to test for statistically significant clustering of the practice of FGM/C in the country. The risk of FGM/C was also modelled and mapped using a hierarchical spatial model under the Integrated Nested Laplace approximation approach using the INLA library in R. The prevalence of FGM/C stood at 28.2% and an estimated 10.3% of the women interviewed indicated that they supported the continuation of FGM. On the basis of the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), hierarchical spatial models with spatially structured random effects were found to best fit the data for both response variables considered. Age, region, rural-urban classification, education, marital status, religion, socioeconomic status and media exposure were found to be significantly associated with FGM/C. The current FGM/C status of a woman was also a significant predictor of support for the continuation of FGM/C. Spatial scan statistics confirm FGM clusters in the North-Eastern and South-Western regions of Kenya (p<0.001). This suggests that the fight against FGM/C in Kenya is not yet over. There are still deep cultural and religious beliefs to be addressed in a bid to eradicate the practice. Interventions by government and other stakeholders must address these challenges and target the identified clusters.

Task switching in a hierarchical task structure: evidence for the fragility of the task repetition benefit.

PubMed

Lien, Mei-Ching; Ruthruff, Eric

2004-05-01

This study examined how task switching is affected by hierarchical task organization. Traditional task-switching studies, which use a constant temporal and spatial distance between each task element (defined as a stimulus requiring a response), promote a flat task structure. Using this approach, Experiment 1 revealed a large switch cost of 238 ms. In Experiments 2-5, adjacent task elements were grouped temporally and/or spatially (forming an ensemble) to create a hierarchical task organization. Results indicate that the effect of switching at the ensemble level dominated the effect of switching at the element level. Experiments 6 and 7, using an ensemble of 3 task elements, revealed that the element-level switch cost was virtually absent between ensembles but was large within an ensemble. The authors conclude that the element-level task repetition benefit is fragile and can be eliminated in a hierarchical task organization.

Task switching in a hierarchical task structure: evidence for the fragility of the task repetition benefit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lien, Mei-Ching; Ruthruff, Eric

2004-01-01

This study examined how task switching is affected by hierarchical task organization. Traditional task-switching studies, which use a constant temporal and spatial distance between each task element (defined as a stimulus requiring a response), promote a flat task structure. Using this approach, Experiment 1 revealed a large switch cost of 238 ms. In Experiments 2-5, adjacent task elements were grouped temporally and/or spatially (forming an ensemble) to create a hierarchical task organization. Results indicate that the effect of switching at the ensemble level dominated the effect of switching at the element level. Experiments 6 and 7, using an ensemble of 3 task elements, revealed that the element-level switch cost was virtually absent between ensembles but was large within an ensemble. The authors conclude that the element-level task repetition benefit is fragile and can be eliminated in a hierarchical task organization.

A multivariate spatial mixture model for areal data: examining regional differences in standardized test scores

PubMed Central

Neelon, Brian; Gelfand, Alan E.; Miranda, Marie Lynn

2013-01-01

Summary Researchers in the health and social sciences often wish to examine joint spatial patterns for two or more related outcomes. Examples include infant birth weight and gestational length, psychosocial and behavioral indices, and educational test scores from different cognitive domains. We propose a multivariate spatial mixture model for the joint analysis of continuous individual-level outcomes that are referenced to areal units. The responses are modeled as a finite mixture of multivariate normals, which accommodates a wide range of marginal response distributions and allows investigators to examine covariate effects within subpopulations of interest. The model has a hierarchical structure built at the individual level (i.e., individuals are nested within areal units), and thus incorporates both individual- and areal-level predictors as well as spatial random effects for each mixture component. Conditional autoregressive (CAR) priors on the random effects provide spatial smoothing and allow the shape of the multivariate distribution to vary flexibly across geographic regions. We adopt a Bayesian modeling approach and develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo model fitting algorithm that relies primarily on closed-form full conditionals. We use the model to explore geographic patterns in end-of-grade math and reading test scores among school-age children in North Carolina. PMID:26401059

Multilevel spatiotemporal change-point models for evaluating the effect of an alcohol outlet control policy on changes in neighborhood assaultive violence rates.

PubMed

Xu, Yanjun; Yu, Qingzhao; Scribner, Richard; Theall, Katherine; Scribner, Scott; Simonsen, Neal

2012-06-01

Many previous studies have suggested a link between alcohol outlets and assaultive violence rates. In 1997 the City of New Orleans adopted a series of policies, e.g., increased license fee, additional enforcement staff, and expanded powers for the alcohol license board. The policies were specifically enacted to address the proliferation of problem alcohol outlets believed to be the source of a variety of social problems including assaultive violence. In this research, we evaluate the impact of a city level policy in New Orleans to address the problem alcohol outlets and their influence on assaultive violence. The spatial association between rates of assaultive violence at the census tract level (n=170) over a ten year period raises a challenge in statistical analysis. To meet this challenge we developed a hierarchical change-point model that controls for important covariates of assaultive violence and accounts for unexplained spatial and temporal variability. While our model is somewhat complex, its hierarchical Bayesian analysis is accessible via the WinBUGS software program. Keeping other effects fixed, the implementation of the new city level policy was associated with a decrease in the positive association between census tract level rates of assaultive violence and alcohol outlet density. Comparing several candidate change-point models using the DIC criterion, the positive association began decreasing the year of the policy implementation. The magnitude of the association continued to decrease for roughly two years and then stabilized. We also created maps of the fitted assaultive violence rates in New Orleans, as well as spatial residual maps which, together with Moran's I's, suggest that the spatial variation of the data is well accounted for by our model. We reach the conclusion that the implementation of the policy is associated with a significant decrease in the positive relationship between assaultive violence and the off-sale alcohol outlet density. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On hierarchical solutions to the BBGKY hierarchy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, A. J. S.

1988-01-01

It is thought that the gravitational clustering of galaxies in the universe may approach a scale-invariant, hierarchical form in the small separation, large-clustering regime. Past attempts to solve the Born-Bogoliubov-Green-Kirkwood-Yvon (BBGKY) hierarchy in this regime have assumed a certain separable hierarchical form for the higher order correlation functions of galaxies in phase space. It is shown here that such separable solutions to the BBGKY equations must satisfy the condition that the clustered component of the solution has cluster-cluster correlations equal to galaxy-galaxy correlations to all orders. The solutions also admit the presence of an arbitrary unclustered component, which plays no dyamical role in the large-clustering regime. These results are a particular property of the specific separable model assumed for the correlation functions in phase space, not an intrinsic property of spatially hierarchical solutions to the BBGKY hierarchy. The observed distribution of galaxies does not satisfy the required conditions. The disagreement between theory and observation may be traced, at least in part, to initial conditions which, if Gaussian, already have cluster correlations greater than galaxy correlations.

Spatial variability of the effect of air pollution on term birth weight: evaluating influential factors using Bayesian hierarchical models.

PubMed

Li, Lianfa; Laurent, Olivier; Wu, Jun

2016-02-05

Epidemiological studies suggest that air pollution is adversely associated with pregnancy outcomes. Such associations may be modified by spatially-varying factors including socio-demographic characteristics, land-use patterns and unaccounted exposures. Yet, few studies have systematically investigated the impact of these factors on spatial variability of the air pollution's effects. This study aimed to examine spatial variability of the effects of air pollution on term birth weight across Census tracts and the influence of tract-level factors on such variability. We obtained over 900,000 birth records from 2001 to 2008 in Los Angeles County, California, USA. Air pollution exposure was modeled at individual level for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) using spatiotemporal models. Two-stage Bayesian hierarchical non-linear models were developed to (1) quantify the associations between air pollution exposure and term birth weight within each tract; and (2) examine the socio-demographic, land-use, and exposure-related factors contributing to the between-tract variability of the associations between air pollution and term birth weight. Higher air pollution exposure was associated with lower term birth weight (average posterior effects: -14.7 (95 % CI: -19.8, -9.7) g per 10 ppb increment in NO2 and -6.9 (95 % CI: -12.9, -0.9) g per 10 ppb increment in NOx). The variation of the association across Census tracts was significantly influenced by the tract-level socio-demographic, exposure-related and land-use factors. Our models captured the complex non-linear relationship between these factors and the associations between air pollution and term birth weight: we observed the thresholds from which the influence of the tract-level factors was markedly exacerbated or attenuated. Exacerbating factors might reflect additional exposure to environmental insults or lower socio-economic status with higher vulnerability, whereas attenuating factors might indicate reduced exposure or higher socioeconomic status with lower vulnerability. Our Bayesian models effectively combined a priori knowledge with training data to infer the posterior association of air pollution with term birth weight and to evaluate the influence of the tract-level factors on spatial variability of such association. This study contributes new findings about non-linear influences of socio-demographic factors, land-use patterns, and unaccounted exposures on spatial variability of the effects of air pollution.

Mapping pre-European settlement vegetation at fine resolutions using a hierarchical Bayesian model and GIS

Treesearch

Hong S. He; Daniel C. Dey; Xiuli Fan; Mevin B. Hooten; John M. Kabrick; Christopher K. Wikle; Zhaofei. Fan

2007-01-01

In the Midwestern United States, the GeneralLandOffice (GLO) survey records provide the only reasonably accurate data source of forest composition and tree species distribution at the time of pre-European settlement (circa late 1800 to early 1850). However, GLO data have two fundamental limitations: coarse spatial resolutions (the square mile section and half mile...

Temporal-Spatial Ambient Concentrator Estimator (T-SpACE): Hierarchical Bayesian Model Software Used to Estimate Ambient Concentrations of NAAQS Air Pollutants in Support of Health Studies

EPA Science Inventory

To fulfill its mission to protect human health and the environment, EPA has established National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) on six selected air pollutants known as criteria pollutants: ozone (O3); carbon monoxide (CO); lead (Pb); nitrogen dioxide (NO2); sulfur dioxide ...

Assessing the impact of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on respiratory-cardiovascular chronic diseases in the New York City Metropolitan area using Hierarchical Bayesian Model estimates

EPA Science Inventory

An enhanced research paradigm is presented to address the spatial and temporal gaps in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) measurements and generate realistic and representative concentration fields for use in epidemiological studies of human exposure to ambient air particulate conce...

Semantic-based surveillance video retrieval.

PubMed

Hu, Weiming; Xie, Dan; Fu, Zhouyu; Zeng, Wenrong; Maybank, Steve

2007-04-01

Visual surveillance produces large amounts of video data. Effective indexing and retrieval from surveillance video databases are very important. Although there are many ways to represent the content of video clips in current video retrieval algorithms, there still exists a semantic gap between users and retrieval systems. Visual surveillance systems supply a platform for investigating semantic-based video retrieval. In this paper, a semantic-based video retrieval framework for visual surveillance is proposed. A cluster-based tracking algorithm is developed to acquire motion trajectories. The trajectories are then clustered hierarchically using the spatial and temporal information, to learn activity models. A hierarchical structure of semantic indexing and retrieval of object activities, where each individual activity automatically inherits all the semantic descriptions of the activity model to which it belongs, is proposed for accessing video clips and individual objects at the semantic level. The proposed retrieval framework supports various queries including queries by keywords, multiple object queries, and queries by sketch. For multiple object queries, succession and simultaneity restrictions, together with depth and breadth first orders, are considered. For sketch-based queries, a method for matching trajectories drawn by users to spatial trajectories is proposed. The effectiveness and efficiency of our framework are tested in a crowded traffic scene.

A Hierarchical and Dynamic Seascape Framework for Scaling and Comparing Ocean Biodiversity Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavanaugh, M.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Montes, E.; Santora, J. A.; Chavez, F.; Messié, M.; Doney, S. C.

2016-02-01

The pelagic ocean is a complex system in which physical, chemical and biological processes interact to shape patterns on multiple spatial and temporal scales and levels of ecological organization. Monitoring and management of marine seascapes must consider a hierarchical and dynamic mosaic, where the boundaries, extent, and location of features change with time. As part of a Marine Biodiversity Observing Network demonstration project, we conducted a multiscale classification of dynamic coastal seascapes in the northeastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico using multivariate satellite and modeled data. Synoptic patterns were validated using mooring and ship-based observations that spanned multiple trophic levels and were collected as part of several long-term monitoring programs, including the Monterey Bay and Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuaries. Seascape extent and habitat diversity varied as a function of both seasonal and interannual forcing. We discuss the patterns of in situ observations in the context of seascape dynamics and the effect on rarefaction, spatial patchiness, and tracking and comparing ecosystems through time. A seascape framework presents an effective means to translate local biodiversity measurements to broader spatiotemporal scales, scales relevant for modeling the effects of global change and enabling whole-ecosystem management in the dynamic ocean.

Coevolution of dynamical states and interactions in dynamic networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmermann, Martín G.; Eguíluz, Víctor M.; San Miguel, Maxi

2004-06-01

We explore the coupled dynamics of the internal states of a set of interacting elements and the network of interactions among them. Interactions are modeled by a spatial game and the network of interaction links evolves adapting to the outcome of the game. As an example, we consider a model of cooperation in which the adaptation is shown to facilitate the formation of a hierarchical interaction network that sustains a highly cooperative stationary state. The resulting network has the characteristics of a small world network when a mechanism of local neighbor selection is introduced in the adaptive network dynamics. The highly connected nodes in the hierarchical structure of the network play a leading role in the stability of the network. Perturbations acting on the state of these special nodes trigger global avalanches leading to complete network reorganization.

Spatially explicit inference for open populations: estimating demographic parameters from camera-trap studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, Beth; Reppucci, Juan; Lucherini, Mauro; Royle, J. Andrew

2010-01-01

We develop a hierarchical capture–recapture model for demographically open populations when auxiliary spatial information about location of capture is obtained. Such spatial capture–recapture data arise from studies based on camera trapping, DNA sampling, and other situations in which a spatial array of devices records encounters of unique individuals. We integrate an individual-based formulation of a Jolly-Seber type model with recently developed spatially explicit capture–recapture models to estimate density and demographic parameters for survival and recruitment. We adopt a Bayesian framework for inference under this model using the method of data augmentation which is implemented in the software program WinBUGS. The model was motivated by a camera trapping study of Pampas cats Leopardus colocolo from Argentina, which we present as an illustration of the model in this paper. We provide estimates of density and the first quantitative assessment of vital rates for the Pampas cat in the High Andes. The precision of these estimates is poor due likely to the sparse data set. Unlike conventional inference methods which usually rely on asymptotic arguments, Bayesian inferences are valid in arbitrary sample sizes, and thus the method is ideal for the study of rare or endangered species for which small data sets are typical.

Spatially explicit inference for open populations: estimating demographic parameters from camera-trap studies.

PubMed

Gardner, Beth; Reppucci, Juan; Lucherini, Mauro; Royle, J Andrew

2010-11-01

We develop a hierarchical capture-recapture model for demographically open populations when auxiliary spatial information about location of capture is obtained. Such spatial capture-recapture data arise from studies based on camera trapping, DNA sampling, and other situations in which a spatial array of devices records encounters of unique individuals. We integrate an individual-based formulation of a Jolly-Seber type model with recently developed spatially explicit capture-recapture models to estimate density and demographic parameters for survival and recruitment. We adopt a Bayesian framework for inference under this model using the method of data augmentation which is implemented in the software program WinBUGS. The model was motivated by a camera trapping study of Pampas cats Leopardus colocolo from Argentina, which we present as an illustration of the model in this paper. We provide estimates of density and the first quantitative assessment of vital rates for the Pampas cat in the High Andes. The precision of these estimates is poor due likely to the sparse data set. Unlike conventional inference methods which usually rely on asymptotic arguments, Bayesian inferences are valid in arbitrary sample sizes, and thus the method is ideal for the study of rare or endangered species for which small data sets are typical.

A hierarchical perspective of plant diversity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sarr, Daniel; Hibbs, D.E.; Huston, M.

2005-01-01

Predictive models of plant diversity have typically focused on either a landscapea??s capacity for richness (equilibrium models), or on the processes that regulate competitive exclusion, and thus allow species to coexist (nonequilibrium models). Here, we review the concepts and purposes of a hierarchical, multiscale model of the controls of plant diversity that incorporates the equilibrium model of climatic favorability at macroscales, nonequilibrium models of competition at microscales, and a mixed model emphasizing environmental heterogeneity at mesoscales. We evaluate the conceptual model using published data from three spatially nested datasets: (1) a macroscale analysis of ecoregions in the continental and western U.S.; (2) a mesoscale study in California; and (3) a microscale study in the Siskiyou Mountains of Oregon and California. At the macroscale (areas from 3889 km2 to 638,300 km2), climate (actual evaporation) was a strong predictor of tree diversity (R2 = 0.80), as predicted by the conceptual model, but area was a better predictor for vascular plant diversity overall (R2 = 0.38), which suggests different types of plants differ in their sensitivity to climatic controls. At mesoscales (areas from 1111 km2 to 15,833 km2 ), climate was still an important predictor of richness (R2 = 0.52), but, as expected, topographic heterogeneity explained an important share of the variance (R2 = 0.19), showed positive correlations with diversity of trees, shrubs, and annual and perennial herbs, and was the primary predictor of shrub and annual plant species richness. At microscales (0.1 ha plots), spatial patterns of diversity showed a clear unimodal pattern along a climatea??driven productivity gradient and a negative relationship with soil fertility. The strong decline in understory and total diversity at the most productive sites suggests that competitive controls, as predicted, can override climatic controls at this scale. We conclude that this hierarchical, multiscale model provides a sound basis to understand and analyze plant species diversity. Specifically, future research should employ the principles in this paper to explore climatic controls on species richness of different life forms, better quantify environmental heterogeneity in landscapes, and analyze how these largea??scale factors interact with local nonequilibrium dynamics to maintain plant diversity.

Nonlinear model of epidemic spreading in a complex social network.

PubMed

Kosiński, Robert A; Grabowski, A

2007-10-01

The epidemic spreading in a human society is a complex process, which can be described on the basis of a nonlinear mathematical model. In such an approach the complex and hierarchical structure of social network (which has implications for the spreading of pathogens and can be treated as a complex network), can be taken into account. In our model each individual has one of the four permitted states: susceptible, infected, infective, unsusceptible or dead. This refers to the SEIR model used in epidemiology. The state of an individual changes in time, depending on the previous state and the interactions with other individuals. The description of the interpersonal contacts is based on the experimental observations of the social relations in the community. It includes spatial localization of the individuals and hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions. Numerical simulations were performed for different types of epidemics, giving the progress of a spreading process and typical relationships (e.g. range of epidemic in time, the epidemic curve). The spreading process has a complex and spatially chaotic character. The time dependence of the number of infective individuals shows the nonlinear character of the spreading process. We investigate the influence of the preventive vaccinations on the spreading process. In particular, for a critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals the percolation threshold is observed and the epidemic is suppressed.

Placing Local Aggregations in a Larger-Scale Context: Hierarchical Modeling of Black-Footed Albatross Dispersion.

PubMed

Michael, P E; Jahncke, J; Hyrenbach, K D

2016-01-01

At-sea surveys facilitate the study of the distribution and abundance of marine birds along standardized transects, in relation to changes in the local environmental conditions and large-scale oceanographic forcing. We analyzed the form and the intensity of black-footed albatross (Phoebastria nigripes: BFAL) spatial dispersion off central California, using five years (2004-2008) of vessel-based surveys of seven replicated survey lines. We related BFAL patchiness to local, regional and basin-wide oceanographic variability using two complementary approaches: a hypothesis-based model and an exploratory analysis. The former tested the strength and sign of hypothesized BFAL responses to environmental variability, within a hierarchical atmosphere-ocean context. The latter explored BFAL cross-correlations with atmospheric / oceanographic variables. While albatross dispersion was not significantly explained by the hierarchical model, the exploratory analysis revealed that aggregations were influenced by static (latitude, depth) and dynamic (wind speed, upwelling) environmental variables. Moreover, the largest BFAL patches occurred along the survey lines with the highest densities, and in association with shallow banks. In turn, the highest BFAL densities occurred during periods of negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation index values and low atmospheric pressure. The exploratory analyses suggest that BFAL dispersion is influenced by basin-wide, regional-scale and local environmental variability. Furthermore, the hypothesis-based model highlights that BFAL do not respond to oceanographic variability in a hierarchical fashion. Instead, their distributions shift more strongly in response to large-scale ocean-atmosphere forcing. Thus, interpreting local changes in BFAL abundance and dispersion requires considering diverse environmental forcing operating at multiple scales.

Analysis of Extreme Snow Water Equivalent Data in Central New Hampshire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuyovich, C.; Skahill, B. E.; Kanney, J. F.; Carr, M.

2017-12-01

Heavy snowfall and snowmelt-related events have been linked to widespread flooding and damages in many regions of the U.S. Design of critical infrastructure in these regions requires spatial estimates of extreme snow water equivalent (SWE). In this study, we develop station specific and spatially explicit estimates of extreme SWE using data from fifteen snow sampling stations maintained by the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services. The stations are located in the Mascoma, Pemigewasset, Winnipesaukee, Ossipee, Salmon Falls, Lamprey, Sugar, and Isinglass basins in New Hampshire. The average record length for the fifteen stations is approximately fifty-nine years. The spatial analysis of extreme SWE involves application of two Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling methods, one that assumes conditional independence, and another which uses the Smith max-stable process model to account for spatial dependence. We also apply additional max-stable process models, albeit not in a Bayesian framework, that better model the observed dependence among the extreme SWE data. The spatial process modeling leverages readily available and relevant spatially explicit covariate data. The noted additional max-stable process models also used the nonstationary winter North Atlantic Oscillation index, which has been observed to influence snowy weather along the east coast of the United States. We find that, for this data set, SWE return level estimates are consistently higher when derived using methods which account for the observed spatial dependence among the extreme data. This is particularly significant for design scenarios of relevance for critical infrastructure evaluation.

Advanced techniques for the storage and use of very large, heterogeneous spatial databases. The representation of geographic knowledge: Toward a universal framework. [relations (mathematics)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peuquet, Donna J.

1987-01-01

A new approach to building geographic data models that is based on the fundamental characteristics of the data is presented. An overall theoretical framework for representing geographic data is proposed. An example of utilizing this framework in a Geographic Information System (GIS) context by combining artificial intelligence techniques with recent developments in spatial data processing techniques is given. Elements of data representation discussed include hierarchical structure, separation of locational and conceptual views, and the ability to store knowledge at variable levels of completeness and precision.

Ecoregions of the conterminous United States: evolution of a hierarchical spatial framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Omernik, James M.; Griffith, Glenn E.

2014-01-01

A map of ecological regions of the conterminous United States, first published in 1987, has been greatly refined and expanded into a hierarchical spatial framework in response to user needs, particularly by state resource management agencies. In collaboration with scientists and resource managers from numerous agencies and institutions in the United States, Mexico, and Canada, the framework has been expanded to cover North America, and the original ecoregions (now termed Level III) have been refined, subdivided, and aggregated to identify coarser as well as more detailed spatial units. The most generalized units (Level I) define 10 ecoregions in the conterminous U.S., while the finest-scale units (Level IV) identify 967 ecoregions. In this paper, we explain the logic underpinning the approach, discuss the evolution of the regional mapping process, and provide examples of how the ecoregions were distinguished at each hierarchical level. The variety of applications of the ecoregion framework illustrates its utility in resource assessment and management.

Ecoregions of the Conterminous United States: Evolution of a Hierarchical Spatial Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omernik, James M.; Griffith, Glenn E.

2014-12-01

A map of ecological regions of the conterminous United States, first published in 1987, has been greatly refined and expanded into a hierarchical spatial framework in response to user needs, particularly by state resource management agencies. In collaboration with scientists and resource managers from numerous agencies and institutions in the United States, Mexico, and Canada, the framework has been expanded to cover North America, and the original ecoregions (now termed Level III) have been refined, subdivided, and aggregated to identify coarser as well as more detailed spatial units. The most generalized units (Level I) define 10 ecoregions in the conterminous U.S., while the finest-scale units (Level IV) identify 967 ecoregions. In this paper, we explain the logic underpinning the approach, discuss the evolution of the regional mapping process, and provide examples of how the ecoregions were distinguished at each hierarchical level. The variety of applications of the ecoregion framework illustrates its utility in resource assessment and management.

Hierarchical acquisition of visual specificity in spatial contextual cueing.

PubMed

Lie, Kin-Pou

2015-01-01

Spatial contextual cueing refers to visual search performance's being improved when invariant associations between target locations and distractor spatial configurations are learned incidentally. Using the instance theory of automatization and the reverse hierarchy theory of visual perceptual learning, this study explores the acquisition of visual specificity in spatial contextual cueing. Two experiments in which detailed visual features were irrelevant for distinguishing between spatial contexts found that spatial contextual cueing was visually generic in difficult trials when the trials were not preceded by easy trials (Experiment 1) but that spatial contextual cueing progressed to visual specificity when difficult trials were preceded by easy trials (Experiment 2). These findings support reverse hierarchy theory, which predicts that even when detailed visual features are irrelevant for distinguishing between spatial contexts, spatial contextual cueing can progress to visual specificity if the stimuli remain constant, the task is difficult, and difficult trials are preceded by easy trials. However, these findings are inconsistent with instance theory, which predicts that when detailed visual features are irrelevant for distinguishing between spatial contexts, spatial contextual cueing will not progress to visual specificity. This study concludes that the acquisition of visual specificity in spatial contextual cueing is more plausibly hierarchical, rather than instance-based.

Effects of Topography-based Subgrid Structures on Land Surface Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesfa, T. K.; Ruby, L.; Brunke, M.; Thornton, P. E.; Zeng, X.; Ghan, S. J.

2017-12-01

Topography has major control on land surface processes through its influence on atmospheric forcing, soil and vegetation properties, network topology and drainage area. Consequently, accurate climate and land surface simulations in mountainous regions cannot be achieved without considering the effects of topographic spatial heterogeneity. To test a computationally less expensive hyper-resolution land surface modeling approach, we developed topography-based landunits within a hierarchical subgrid spatial structure to improve representation of land surface processes in the ACME Land Model (ALM) with minimal increase in computational demand, while improving the ability to capture the spatial heterogeneity of atmospheric forcing and land cover influenced by topography. This study focuses on evaluation of the impacts of the new spatial structures on modeling land surface processes. As a first step, we compare ALM simulations with and without subgrid topography and driven by grid cell mean atmospheric forcing to isolate the impacts of the subgrid topography on the simulated land surface states and fluxes. Recognizing that subgrid topography also has important effects on atmospheric processes that control temperature, radiation, and precipitation, methods are being developed to downscale atmospheric forcings. Hence in the second step, the impacts of the subgrid topographic structure on land surface modeling will be evaluated by including spatial downscaling of the atmospheric forcings. Preliminary results on the atmospheric downscaling and the effects of the new spatial structures on the ALM simulations will be presented.

Pyramid algorithms as models of human cognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pizlo, Zygmunt; Li, Zheng

2003-06-01

There is growing body of experimental evidence showing that human perception and cognition involves mechanisms that can be adequately modeled by pyramid algorithms. The main aspect of those mechanisms is hierarchical clustering of information: visual images, spatial relations, and states as well as transformations of a problem. In this paper we review prior psychophysical and simulation results on visual size transformation, size discrimination, speed-accuracy tradeoff, figure-ground segregation, and the traveling salesman problem. We also present our new results on graph search and on the 15-puzzle.

Using a Hierarchical Approach to Model Regional Source Sink Dynamics for Neotropical Nearctic Songbirds to Inform Management Practices on Department of Defense Installations

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-20

comparison with the more intensive demographic study . We found support for spatial variation in productivity at both location and station scales. At location...the larger intensive demographic monitoring study , we also fit a productivity model that included a covariate calculated for the 12 stations included...Reference herein to any specific commercial product , process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily

Spatial and temporal patterns of chronic wasting disease: Fine-scale mapping of a wildlife epidemic in Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osnas, E.E.; Heisey, D.M.; Rolley, R.E.; Samuel, M.D.

2009-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases threaten wildlife populations and human health. Understanding the spatial distributions of these new diseases is important for disease management and policy makers; however, the data are complicated by heterogeneities across host classes, sampling variance, sampling biases, and the space-time epidemic process. Ignoring these issues can lead to false conclusions or obscure important patterns in the data, such as spatial variation in disease prevalence. Here, we applied hierarchical Bayesian disease mapping methods to account for risk factors and to estimate spatial and temporal patterns of infection by chronic wasting disease (CWD) in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) of Wisconsin, USA. We found significant heterogeneities for infection due to age, sex, and spatial location. Infection probability increased with age for all young deer, increased with age faster for young males, and then declined for some older animals, as expected from disease-associated mortality and age-related changes in infection risk. We found that disease prevalence was clustered in a central location, as expected under a simple spatial epidemic process where disease prevalence should increase with time and expand spatially. However, we could not detect any consistent temporal or spatiotemporal trends in CWD prevalence. Estimates of the temporal trend indicated that prevalence may have decreased or increased with nearly equal posterior probability, and the model without temporal or spatiotemporal effects was nearly equivalent to models with these effects based on deviance information criteria. For maximum interpretability of the role of location as a disease risk factor, we used the technique of direct standardization for prevalence mapping, which we develop and describe. These mapping results allow disease management actions to be employed with reference to the estimated spatial distribution of the disease and to those host classes most at risk. Future wildlife epidemiology studies should employ hierarchical Bayesian methods to smooth estimated quantities across space and time, account for heterogeneities, and then report disease rates based on an appropriate standardization. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Does seasonality drive spatial patterns in demography? Variation in survival in African reed warblers Acrocephalus baeticatus across southern Africa does not reflect global patterns

PubMed Central

Jansen, Dorine YM; Abadi, Fitsum; Harebottle, Doug; Altwegg, Res

2014-01-01

Among birds, northern temperate species generally have larger clutches, shorter development periods and lower adult survival than similarly-sized southern and tropical species. Even though this global pattern is well accepted, the driving mechanism is still not fully understood. The main theories are founded on the differing environmental seasonality of these zones (higher seasonality in the North). These patterns arise in cross-species comparisons, but we hypothesized that the same patterns should arise among populations within a species if different types of seasonality select for different life histories. Few studies have examined this. We estimated survival of an azonal habitat specialist, the African reed warbler, across the environmentally diverse African subcontinent, and related survival to latitude and to the seasonality of the different environments of their breeding habitats. Data (1998–2010) collected through a public ringing scheme were analyzed with hierarchical capture-mark-recapture models to determine resident adult survival and its spatial variance across sixteen vegetation units spread across four biomes. The models were defined as state-space multi-state models to account for transience and implemented in a Bayesian framework. We did not find a latitudinal trend in survival or a clear link between seasonality and survival. Spatial variation in survival was substantial across the sixteen sites (spatial standard deviation of the logit mean survival: 0.70, 95% credible interval (CRI): 0.33–1.27). Mean site survival ranged from 0.49 (95% CRI: 0.18–0.80) to 0.83 (95% CRI: 0.62–0.97) with an overall mean of 0.67 (95% CRI: 0.47–0.85). A hierarchical modeling approach enabled us to estimate spatial variation in survival of the African reed warbler across the African subcontinent from sparse data. Although we could not confirm the global pattern of higher survival in less seasonal environments, our findings from a poorly studied region contribute to the study of life-history strategies. PMID:24772268

Spatially orthogonal chemical functionalization of a hierarchical pore network for catalytic cascade reactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parlett, Christopher M. A.; Isaacs, Mark A.; Beaumont, Simon K.; Bingham, Laura M.; Hondow, Nicole S.; Wilson, Karen; Lee, Adam F.

2016-02-01

The chemical functionality within porous architectures dictates their performance as heterogeneous catalysts; however, synthetic routes to control the spatial distribution of individual functions within porous solids are limited. Here we report the fabrication of spatially orthogonal bifunctional porous catalysts, through the stepwise template removal and chemical functionalization of an interconnected silica framework. Selective removal of polystyrene nanosphere templates from a lyotropic liquid crystal-templated silica sol-gel matrix, followed by extraction of the liquid crystal template, affords a hierarchical macroporous-mesoporous architecture. Decoupling of the individual template extractions allows independent functionalization of macropore and mesopore networks on the basis of chemical and/or size specificity. Spatial compartmentalization of, and directed molecular transport between, chemical functionalities affords control over the reaction sequence in catalytic cascades; herein illustrated by the Pd/Pt-catalysed oxidation of cinnamyl alcohol to cinnamic acid. We anticipate that our methodology will prompt further design of multifunctional materials comprising spatially compartmentalized functions.

Bayesian Spatiotemporal Pattern and Eco-climatological Drivers of Striped Skunk Rabies in the North Central Plains

PubMed Central

Raghavan, Ram K.; Hanlon, Cathleen A.; Goodin, Douglas G.; Anderson, Gary A.

2016-01-01

Striped skunks are one of the most important terrestrial reservoirs of rabies virus in North America, and yet the prevalence of rabies among this host is only passively monitored and the disease among this host remains largely unmanaged. Oral vaccination campaigns have not efficiently targeted striped skunks, while periodic spillovers of striped skunk variant viruses to other animals, including some domestic animals, are routinely recorded. In this study we evaluated the spatial and spatio-temporal patterns of infection status among striped skunk cases submitted for rabies testing in the North Central Plains of US in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, and also evaluated potential eco-climatological drivers of such patterns. Two Bayesian hierarchical models were fitted to point-referenced striped skunk rabies cases [n = 656 (negative), and n = 310 (positive)] received at a leading rabies diagnostic facility between the years 2007–2013. The first model included only spatial and temporal terms and a second covariate model included additional covariates representing eco-climatic conditions within a 4km2 home-range area for striped skunks. The better performing covariate model indicated the presence of significant spatial and temporal trends in the dataset and identified higher amounts of land covered by low-intensity developed areas [Odds ratio (OR) = 3.41; 95% Bayesian Credible Intervals (CrI) = 2.08, 3.85], higher level of patch fragmentation (OR = 1.70; 95% CrI = 1.25, 2.89), and diurnal temperature range (OR = 0.54; 95% CrI = 0.27, 0.91) to be important drivers of striped skunk rabies incidence in the study area. Model validation statistics indicated satisfactory performance for both models; however, the covariate model fared better. The findings of this study are important in the context of rabies management among striped skunks in North America, and the relevance of physical and climatological factors as risk factors for skunk to human rabies transmission and the space-time patterns of striped skunk rabies are discussed. PMID:27127994

Cognitive mechanisms underlying third graders' arithmetic skills: Expanding the pathways to mathematics model.

PubMed

Träff, Ulf; Olsson, Linda; Skagerlund, Kenny; Östergren, Rickard

2018-03-01

A modified pathways to mathematics model was used to examine the cognitive mechanisms underlying arithmetic skills in third graders. A total of 269 children were assessed on tasks tapping the four pathways and arithmetic skills. A path analysis showed that symbolic number processing was directly supported by the linguistic and approximate quantitative pathways. The direct contribution from the four pathways to arithmetic proficiency varied; the linguistic pathway supported single-digit arithmetic and word problem solving, whereas the approximate quantitative pathway supported only multi-digit calculation. The spatial processing and verbal working memory pathways supported only arithmetic word problem solving. The notion of hierarchical levels of arithmetic was supported by the results, and the different levels were supported by different constellations of pathways. However, the strongest support to the hierarchical levels of arithmetic were provided by the proximal arithmetic skills. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial Learning and Action Planning in a Prefrontal Cortical Network Model

PubMed Central

Martinet, Louis-Emmanuel; Sheynikhovich, Denis; Benchenane, Karim; Arleo, Angelo

2011-01-01

The interplay between hippocampus and prefrontal cortex (PFC) is fundamental to spatial cognition. Complementing hippocampal place coding, prefrontal representations provide more abstract and hierarchically organized memories suitable for decision making. We model a prefrontal network mediating distributed information processing for spatial learning and action planning. Specific connectivity and synaptic adaptation principles shape the recurrent dynamics of the network arranged in cortical minicolumns. We show how the PFC columnar organization is suitable for learning sparse topological-metrical representations from redundant hippocampal inputs. The recurrent nature of the network supports multilevel spatial processing, allowing structural features of the environment to be encoded. An activation diffusion mechanism spreads the neural activity through the column population leading to trajectory planning. The model provides a functional framework for interpreting the activity of PFC neurons recorded during navigation tasks. We illustrate the link from single unit activity to behavioral responses. The results suggest plausible neural mechanisms subserving the cognitive “insight” capability originally attributed to rodents by Tolman & Honzik. Our time course analysis of neural responses shows how the interaction between hippocampus and PFC can yield the encoding of manifold information pertinent to spatial planning, including prospective coding and distance-to-goal correlates. PMID:21625569

Using Bayesian hierarchical models to better understand nitrate sources and sinks in agricultural watersheds.

PubMed

Xia, Yongqiu; Weller, Donald E; Williams, Meghan N; Jordan, Thomas E; Yan, Xiaoyuan

2016-11-15

Export coefficient models (ECMs) are often used to predict nutrient sources and sinks in watersheds because ECMs can flexibly incorporate processes and have minimal data requirements. However, ECMs do not quantify uncertainties in model structure, parameters, or predictions; nor do they account for spatial and temporal variability in land characteristics, weather, and management practices. We applied Bayesian hierarchical methods to address these problems in ECMs used to predict nitrate concentration in streams. We compared four model formulations, a basic ECM and three models with additional terms to represent competing hypotheses about the sources of error in ECMs and about spatial and temporal variability of coefficients: an ADditive Error Model (ADEM), a SpatioTemporal Parameter Model (STPM), and a Dynamic Parameter Model (DPM). The DPM incorporates a first-order random walk to represent spatial correlation among parameters and a dynamic linear model to accommodate temporal correlation. We tested the modeling approach in a proof of concept using watershed characteristics and nitrate export measurements from watersheds in the Coastal Plain physiographic province of the Chesapeake Bay drainage. Among the four models, the DPM was the best--it had the lowest mean error, explained the most variability (R 2  = 0.99), had the narrowest prediction intervals, and provided the most effective tradeoff between fit complexity (its deviance information criterion, DIC, was 45.6 units lower than any other model, indicating overwhelming support for the DPM). The superiority of the DPM supports its underlying hypothesis that the main source of error in ECMs is their failure to account for parameter variability rather than structural error. Analysis of the fitted DPM coefficients for cropland export and instream retention revealed some of the factors controlling nitrate concentration: cropland nitrate exports were positively related to stream flow and watershed average slope, while instream nitrate retention was positively correlated with nitrate concentration. By quantifying spatial and temporal variability in sources and sinks, the DPM provides new information to better target management actions to the most effective times and places. Given the wide use of ECMs as research and management tools, our approach can be broadly applied in other watersheds and to other materials. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The NIST Real-Time Control System (RCS): A Reference Model Architecture for Computational Intelligence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Albus, James S.

1996-01-01

The Real-time Control System (RCS) developed at NIST and elsewhere over the past two decades defines a reference model architecture for design and analysis of complex intelligent control systems. The RCS architecture consists of a hierarchically layered set of functional processing modules connected by a network of communication pathways. The primary distinguishing feature of the layers is the bandwidth of the control loops. The characteristic bandwidth of each level is determined by the spatial and temporal integration window of filters, the temporal frequency of signals and events, the spatial frequency of patterns, and the planning horizon and granularity of the planners that operate at each level. At each level, tasks are decomposed into sequential subtasks, to be performed by cooperating sets of subordinate agents. At each level, signals from sensors are filtered and correlated with spatial and temporal features that are relevant to the control function being implemented at that level.

Settlement Networks in Polish Spatial Development Regional Plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sołtys, Jacek

2017-10-01

In 1999, ten years after the great political changes in Poland, 16 self-governed regions (in Polish: voivodeship) were created. According to Polish law, voivodeship spatial development plans, or regional plans in short, determine basic elements of the settlement network. No detailed regulations indicate the specific elements of the settlement network or what features of these elements should be determined. For this reason, centres as elements of the settlement network are variously named in different regions and take the form of various models. The purposes of the research described in this article are: (1) recognition and systematization of settlement network models determined in regional plans; and (2) assessment of the readability of determination in planning and its usefulness in the practice of regional policy. Six models of settlement networks in regional plans have been identified and classified into types and sub-types. Names of specific levels of centres indicate that they were classified according to two criteria: (1) level of services, which concerns only 5 voivodships; and (2) importance in development, which concerns the 11 other voivodships. The hierarchical model referring to the importance of development is less understandable than the one related to services. In the text of most plans, centres of services and centres of development are treated independently from their names. In some plans the functional types of towns and cities are indicated. In some voivodships, specifications in the plan text are too general and seem to be rather useless in the practice of regional policy. The author suggests that regional plans should determine two kinds of centres: hierarchical service centres and non-hierarchical centres of development. These centres should be further distinguished according to: (1) their role in the activation of surroundings; (2) their level of development and the necessity of action for their development; and (3) the types of actions indicated in the regional policy.

Variability aware compact model characterization for statistical circuit design optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiao, Ying; Qian, Kun; Spanos, Costas J.

2012-03-01

Variability modeling at the compact transistor model level can enable statistically optimized designs in view of limitations imposed by the fabrication technology. In this work we propose an efficient variabilityaware compact model characterization methodology based on the linear propagation of variance. Hierarchical spatial variability patterns of selected compact model parameters are directly calculated from transistor array test structures. This methodology has been implemented and tested using transistor I-V measurements and the EKV-EPFL compact model. Calculation results compare well to full-wafer direct model parameter extractions. Further studies are done on the proper selection of both compact model parameters and electrical measurement metrics used in the method.

Quantifying spatial scaling patterns and their local and regional correlates in headwater streams: Implications for resilience

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gothe, Emma; Sandin, Leonard; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.

2014-01-01

The distribution of functional traits within and across spatiotemporal scales has been used to quantify and infer the relative resilience across ecosystems. We use explicit spatial modeling to evaluate within- and cross-scale redundancy in headwater streams, an ecosystem type with a hierarchical and dendritic network structure. We assessed the cross-scale distribution of functional feeding groups of benthic invertebrates in Swedish headwater streams during two seasons. We evaluated functional metrics, i.e., Shannon diversity, richness, and evenness, and the degree of redundancy within and across modeled spatial scales for individual feeding groups. We also estimated the correlates of environmental versus spatial factors of both functional composition and the taxonomic composition of functional groups for each spatial scale identified. Measures of functional diversity and within-scale redundancy of functions were similar during both seasons, but both within- and cross-scale redundancy were low. This apparent low redundancy was partly attributable to a few dominant taxa explaining the spatial models. However, rare taxa with stochastic spatial distributions might provide additional information and should therefore be considered explicitly for complementing future resilience assessments. Otherwise, resilience may be underestimated. Finally, both environmental and spatial factors correlated with the scale-specific functional and taxonomic composition. This finding suggests that resilience in stream networks emerges as a function of not only local conditions but also regional factors such as habitat connectivity and invertebrate dispersal.

Hierarchical fameworks for distributional and life history data: Implementation of a new ecoinformatics tool

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Questions/Methods Threats to marine and estuarine species operate over many spatial scales, from nutrient enrichment at the watershed/estuary scale to climate change at a global scale. To address this range of environmental issues, we developed a hierarchical framewor...

Unsupervised classification of multivariate geostatistical data: Two algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romary, Thomas; Ors, Fabien; Rivoirard, Jacques; Deraisme, Jacques

2015-12-01

With the increasing development of remote sensing platforms and the evolution of sampling facilities in mining and oil industry, spatial datasets are becoming increasingly large, inform a growing number of variables and cover wider and wider areas. Therefore, it is often necessary to split the domain of study to account for radically different behaviors of the natural phenomenon over the domain and to simplify the subsequent modeling step. The definition of these areas can be seen as a problem of unsupervised classification, or clustering, where we try to divide the domain into homogeneous domains with respect to the values taken by the variables in hand. The application of classical clustering methods, designed for independent observations, does not ensure the spatial coherence of the resulting classes. Image segmentation methods, based on e.g. Markov random fields, are not adapted to irregularly sampled data. Other existing approaches, based on mixtures of Gaussian random functions estimated via the expectation-maximization algorithm, are limited to reasonable sample sizes and a small number of variables. In this work, we propose two algorithms based on adaptations of classical algorithms to multivariate geostatistical data. Both algorithms are model free and can handle large volumes of multivariate, irregularly spaced data. The first one proceeds by agglomerative hierarchical clustering. The spatial coherence is ensured by a proximity condition imposed for two clusters to merge. This proximity condition relies on a graph organizing the data in the coordinates space. The hierarchical algorithm can then be seen as a graph-partitioning algorithm. Following this interpretation, a spatial version of the spectral clustering algorithm is also proposed. The performances of both algorithms are assessed on toy examples and a mining dataset.

Ozone, Fine Particulate Matter, and Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease Mortality in the United States.

PubMed

Hao, Yongping; Balluz, Lina; Strosnider, Heather; Wen, Xiao Jun; Li, Chaoyang; Qualters, Judith R

2015-08-01

Short-term effects of air pollution exposure on respiratory disease mortality are well established. However, few studies have examined the effects of long-term exposure, and among those that have, results are inconsistent. To evaluate long-term association between ambient ozone, fine particulate matter (PM2.5, particles with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less), and chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD) mortality in the contiguous United States. We fit Bayesian hierarchical spatial Poisson models, adjusting for five county-level covariates (percentage of adults aged ≥65 years, poverty, lifetime smoking, obesity, and temperature), with random effects at state and county levels to account for spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence. We derived county-level average daily concentration levels for ambient ozone and PM2.5 for 2001-2008 from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's down-scaled estimates and obtained 2007-2008 CLRD deaths from the National Center for Health Statistics. Exposure to ambient ozone was associated with an increased rate of CLRD deaths, with a rate ratio of 1.05 (95% credible interval, 1.01-1.09) per 5-ppb increase in ozone; the association between ambient PM2.5 and CLRD mortality was positive but statistically insignificant (rate ratio, 1.07; 95% credible interval, 0.99-1.14). This study links air pollution exposure data with CLRD mortality for all 3,109 contiguous U.S. counties. Ambient ozone may be associated with an increased rate of death from CLRD in the contiguous United States. Although we adjusted for selected county-level covariates and unobserved influences through Bayesian hierarchical spatial modeling, the possibility of ecologic bias remains.

Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.; Moran, Edward H.; Dey, Rima; Mader, Helmut; Kraml, Julia

2012-01-01

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.

Divisive normalization and neuronal oscillations in a single hierarchical framework of selective visual attention.

PubMed

Montijn, Jorrit Steven; Klink, P Christaan; van Wezel, Richard J A

2012-01-01

Divisive normalization models of covert attention commonly use spike rate modulations as indicators of the effect of top-down attention. In addition, an increasing number of studies have shown that top-down attention increases the synchronization of neuronal oscillations as well, particularly in gamma-band frequencies (25-100 Hz). Although modulations of spike rate and synchronous oscillations are not mutually exclusive as mechanisms of attention, there has thus far been little effort to integrate these concepts into a single framework of attention. Here, we aim to provide such a unified framework by expanding the normalization model of attention with a multi-level hierarchical structure and a time dimension; allowing the simulation of a recently reported backward progression of attentional effects along the visual cortical hierarchy. A simple cascade of normalization models simulating different cortical areas is shown to cause signal degradation and a loss of stimulus discriminability over time. To negate this degradation and ensure stable neuronal stimulus representations, we incorporate a kind of oscillatory phase entrainment into our model that has previously been proposed as the "communication-through-coherence" (CTC) hypothesis. Our analysis shows that divisive normalization and oscillation models can complement each other in a unified account of the neural mechanisms of selective visual attention. The resulting hierarchical normalization and oscillation (HNO) model reproduces several additional spatial and temporal aspects of attentional modulation and predicts a latency effect on neuronal responses as a result of cued attention.

Divisive Normalization and Neuronal Oscillations in a Single Hierarchical Framework of Selective Visual Attention

PubMed Central

Montijn, Jorrit Steven; Klink, P. Christaan; van Wezel, Richard J. A.

2012-01-01

Divisive normalization models of covert attention commonly use spike rate modulations as indicators of the effect of top-down attention. In addition, an increasing number of studies have shown that top-down attention increases the synchronization of neuronal oscillations as well, particularly in gamma-band frequencies (25–100 Hz). Although modulations of spike rate and synchronous oscillations are not mutually exclusive as mechanisms of attention, there has thus far been little effort to integrate these concepts into a single framework of attention. Here, we aim to provide such a unified framework by expanding the normalization model of attention with a multi-level hierarchical structure and a time dimension; allowing the simulation of a recently reported backward progression of attentional effects along the visual cortical hierarchy. A simple cascade of normalization models simulating different cortical areas is shown to cause signal degradation and a loss of stimulus discriminability over time. To negate this degradation and ensure stable neuronal stimulus representations, we incorporate a kind of oscillatory phase entrainment into our model that has previously been proposed as the “communication-through-coherence” (CTC) hypothesis. Our analysis shows that divisive normalization and oscillation models can complement each other in a unified account of the neural mechanisms of selective visual attention. The resulting hierarchical normalization and oscillation (HNO) model reproduces several additional spatial and temporal aspects of attentional modulation and predicts a latency effect on neuronal responses as a result of cued attention. PMID:22586372

The correlation function for density perturbations in an expanding universe. III The three-point and predictions of the four-point and higher order correlation functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcclelland, J.; Silk, J.

1978-01-01

Higher-order correlation functions for the large-scale distribution of galaxies in space are investigated. It is demonstrated that the three-point correlation function observed by Peebles and Groth (1975) is not consistent with a distribution of perturbations that at present are randomly distributed in space. The two-point correlation function is shown to be independent of how the perturbations are distributed spatially, and a model of clustered perturbations is developed which incorporates a nonuniform perturbation distribution and which explains the three-point correlation function. A model with hierarchical perturbations incorporating the same nonuniform distribution is also constructed; it is found that this model also explains the three-point correlation function, but predicts different results for the four-point and higher-order correlation functions than does the model with clustered perturbations. It is suggested that the model of hierarchical perturbations might be explained by the single assumption of having density fluctuations or discrete objects all of the same mass randomly placed at some initial epoch.

Towards a hierarchical optimization modeling framework for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Background:Bilevel optimization has been recognized as a 2-player Stackelberg game where players are represented as leaders and followers and each pursue their own set of objectives. Hierarchical optimization problems, which are a generalization of bilevel, are especially difficult because the optimization is nested, meaning that the objectives of one level depend on solutions to the other levels. We introduce a hierarchical optimization framework for spatially targeting multiobjective green infrastructure (GI) incentive policies under uncertainties related to policy budget, compliance, and GI effectiveness. We demonstrate the utility of the framework using a hypothetical urban watershed, where the levels are characterized by multiple levels of policy makers (e.g., local, regional, national) and policy followers (e.g., landowners, communities), and objectives include minimization of policy cost, implementation cost, and risk; reduction of combined sewer overflow (CSO) events; and improvement in environmental benefits such as reduced nutrient run-off and water availability. Conclusions: While computationally expensive, this hierarchical optimization framework explicitly simulates the interaction between multiple levels of policy makers (e.g., local, regional, national) and policy followers (e.g., landowners, communities) and is especially useful for constructing and evaluating environmental and ecological policy. Using the framework with a hypothetical urba

Spatial modelling and mapping of female genital mutilation in Kenya

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) is still prevalent in several communities in Kenya and other areas in Africa, as well as being practiced by some migrants from African countries living in other parts of the world. This study aimed at detecting clustering of FGM/C in Kenya, and identifying those areas within the country where women still intend to continue the practice. A broader goal of the study was to identify geographical areas where the practice continues unabated and where broad intervention strategies need to be introduced. Methods The prevalence of FGM/C was investigated using the 2008 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) data. The 2008 KDHS used a multistage stratified random sampling plan to select women of reproductive age (15–49 years) and asked questions concerning their FGM/C status and their support for the continuation of FGM/C. A spatial scan statistical analysis was carried out using SaTScan™ to test for statistically significant clustering of the practice of FGM/C in the country. The risk of FGM/C was also modelled and mapped using a hierarchical spatial model under the Integrated Nested Laplace approximation approach using the INLA library in R. Results The prevalence of FGM/C stood at 28.2% and an estimated 10.3% of the women interviewed indicated that they supported the continuation of FGM. On the basis of the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), hierarchical spatial models with spatially structured random effects were found to best fit the data for both response variables considered. Age, region, rural–urban classification, education, marital status, religion, socioeconomic status and media exposure were found to be significantly associated with FGM/C. The current FGM/C status of a woman was also a significant predictor of support for the continuation of FGM/C. Spatial scan statistics confirm FGM clusters in the North-Eastern and South-Western regions of Kenya (p < 0.001). Conclusion This suggests that the fight against FGM/C in Kenya is not yet over. There are still deep cultural and religious beliefs to be addressed in a bid to eradicate the practice. Interventions by government and other stakeholders must address these challenges and target the identified clusters. PMID:24661558

Semiparametric regression during 2003–2007*

PubMed Central

Ruppert, David; Wand, M.P.; Carroll, Raymond J.

2010-01-01

Semiparametric regression is a fusion between parametric regression and nonparametric regression that integrates low-rank penalized splines, mixed model and hierarchical Bayesian methodology – thus allowing more streamlined handling of longitudinal and spatial correlation. We review progress in the field over the five-year period between 2003 and 2007. We find semiparametric regression to be a vibrant field with substantial involvement and activity, continual enhancement and widespread application. PMID:20305800

A BAYESIAN SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL MODELING APPROACH TO MAPPING GEOGRAPHIC VARIATION IN MORTALITY RATES FOR SUBNATIONAL AREAS WITH R-INLA.

PubMed

Khana, Diba; Rossen, Lauren M; Hedegaard, Holly; Warner, Margaret

2018-01-01

Hierarchical Bayes models have been used in disease mapping to examine small scale geographic variation. State level geographic variation for less common causes of mortality outcomes have been reported however county level variation is rarely examined. Due to concerns about statistical reliability and confidentiality, county-level mortality rates based on fewer than 20 deaths are suppressed based on Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) statistical reliability criteria, precluding an examination of spatio-temporal variation in less common causes of mortality outcomes such as suicide rates (SRs) at the county level using direct estimates. Existing Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling strategies can be applied via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) in R to a large number of rare causes of mortality outcomes to enable examination of spatio-temporal variations on smaller geographic scales such as counties. This method allows examination of spatiotemporal variation across the entire U.S., even where the data are sparse. We used mortality data from 2005-2015 to explore spatiotemporal variation in SRs, as one particular application of the Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling strategy in R-INLA to predict year and county-specific SRs. Specifically, hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal models were implemented with spatially structured and unstructured random effects, correlated time effects, time varying confounders and space-time interaction terms in the software R-INLA, borrowing strength across both counties and years to produce smoothed county level SRs. Model-based estimates of SRs were mapped to explore geographic variation.

Decoding leaf hydraulics with a spatially explicit model: principles of venation architecture and implications for its evolution.

PubMed

McKown, Athena D; Cochard, Hervé; Sack, Lawren

2010-04-01

Leaf venation architecture is tremendously diverse across plant species. Understanding the hydraulic functions of given venation traits can clarify the organization of the vascular system and its adaptation to environment. Using a spatially explicit model (the program K_leaf), we subjected realistic simulated leaves to modifications and calculated the impacts on xylem and leaf hydraulic conductance (K(x) and K(leaf), respectively), important traits in determining photosynthesis and growth. We tested the sensitivity of leaves to altered vein order conductivities (1) in the absence or (2) presence of hierarchical vein architecture, (3) to major vein tapering, and (4) to modification of vein densities (length/leaf area). The K(x) and K(leaf) increased with individual vein order conductivities and densities; for hierarchical venation systems, the greatest impact was from increases in vein conductivity for lower vein orders and increases in density for higher vein orders. Individual vein order conductivities were colimiting of K(x) and K(leaf), as were their densities, but the effects of vein conductivities and densities were orthogonal. Both vein hierarchy and vein tapering increased K(x) relative to xylem construction cost. These results highlight the important consequences of venation traits for the economics, ecology, and evolution of plant transport capacity.

Organizational and Spatial Dynamics of Attentional Focusing in Hierarchically Structured Objects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yeari, Menahem; Goldsmith, Morris

2011-01-01

Is the focusing of visual attention object-based, space-based, both, or neither? Attentional focusing latencies in hierarchically structured compound-letter objects were examined, orthogonally manipulating global size (larger vs. smaller) and organizational complexity (two-level structure vs. three-level structure). In a dynamic focusing task,…

Spatiotemporal hurdle models for zero-inflated count data: Exploring trends in emergency department visits.

PubMed

Neelon, Brian; Chang, Howard H; Ling, Qiang; Hastings, Nicole S

2016-12-01

Motivated by a study exploring spatiotemporal trends in emergency department use, we develop a class of two-part hurdle models for the analysis of zero-inflated areal count data. The models consist of two components-one for the probability of any emergency department use and one for the number of emergency department visits given use. Through a hierarchical structure, the models incorporate both patient- and region-level predictors, as well as spatially and temporally correlated random effects for each model component. The random effects are assigned multivariate conditionally autoregressive priors, which induce dependence between the components and provide spatial and temporal smoothing across adjacent spatial units and time periods, resulting in improved inferences. To accommodate potential overdispersion, we consider a range of parametric specifications for the positive counts, including truncated negative binomial and generalized Poisson distributions. We adopt a Bayesian inferential approach, and posterior computation is handled conveniently within standard Bayesian software. Our results indicate that the negative binomial and generalized Poisson hurdle models vastly outperform the Poisson hurdle model, demonstrating that overdispersed hurdle models provide a useful approach to analyzing zero-inflated spatiotemporal data. © The Author(s) 2014.

Controlling for unmeasured confounding and spatial misalignment in long-term air pollution and health studies.

PubMed

Lee, Duncan; Sarran, Christophe

2015-11-01

The health impact of long-term exposure to air pollution is now routinely estimated using spatial ecological studies, owing to the recent widespread availability of spatial referenced pollution and disease data. However, this areal unit study design presents a number of statistical challenges, which if ignored have the potential to bias the estimated pollution-health relationship. One such challenge is how to control for the spatial autocorrelation present in the data after accounting for the known covariates, which is caused by unmeasured confounding. A second challenge is how to adjust the functional form of the model to account for the spatial misalignment between the pollution and disease data, which causes within-area variation in the pollution data. These challenges have largely been ignored in existing long-term spatial air pollution and health studies, so here we propose a novel Bayesian hierarchical model that addresses both challenges and provide software to allow others to apply our model to their own data. The effectiveness of the proposed model is compared by simulation against a number of state-of-the-art alternatives proposed in the literature and is then used to estimate the impact of nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter concentrations on respiratory hospital admissions in a new epidemiological study in England in 2010 at the local authority level. © 2015 The Authors. Environmetrics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Continental-scale, data-driven predictive assessment of eliminating the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis, in sub-Saharan Africa by 2020.

PubMed

Michael, Edwin; Singh, Brajendra K; Mayala, Benjamin K; Smith, Morgan E; Hampton, Scott; Nabrzyski, Jaroslaw

2017-09-27

There are growing demands for predicting the prospects of achieving the global elimination of neglected tropical diseases as a result of the institution of large-scale nation-wide intervention programs by the WHO-set target year of 2020. Such predictions will be uncertain due to the impacts that spatial heterogeneity and scaling effects will have on parasite transmission processes, which will introduce significant aggregation errors into any attempt aiming to predict the outcomes of interventions at the broader spatial levels relevant to policy making. We describe a modeling platform that addresses this problem of upscaling from local settings to facilitate predictions at regional levels by the discovery and use of locality-specific transmission models, and we illustrate the utility of using this approach to evaluate the prospects for eliminating the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), in sub-Saharan Africa by the WHO target year of 2020 using currently applied or newly proposed intervention strategies. METHODS AND RESULTS: We show how a computational platform that couples site-specific data discovery with model fitting and calibration can allow both learning of local LF transmission models and simulations of the impact of interventions that take a fuller account of the fine-scale heterogeneous transmission of this parasitic disease within endemic countries. We highlight how such a spatially hierarchical modeling tool that incorporates actual data regarding the roll-out of national drug treatment programs and spatial variability in infection patterns into the modeling process can produce more realistic predictions of timelines to LF elimination at coarse spatial scales, ranging from district to country to continental levels. Our results show that when locally applicable extinction thresholds are used, only three countries are likely to meet the goal of LF elimination by 2020 using currently applied mass drug treatments, and that switching to more intensive drug regimens, increasing the frequency of treatments, or switching to new triple drug regimens will be required if LF elimination is to be accelerated in Africa. The proportion of countries that would meet the goal of eliminating LF by 2020 may, however, reach up to 24/36 if the WHO 1% microfilaremia prevalence threshold is used and sequential mass drug deliveries are applied in countries. We have developed and applied a data-driven spatially hierarchical computational platform that uses the discovery of locally applicable transmission models in order to predict the prospects for eliminating the macroparasitic disease, LF, at the coarser country level in sub-Saharan Africa. We show that fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in local parasite transmission and extinction dynamics, as well as the exact nature of intervention roll-outs in countries, will impact the timelines to achieving national LF elimination on this continent.

Spatial scaling of non-native fish richness across the United States

Treesearch

Qinfeng Guo; Julian D. Olden

2014-01-01

A major goal and challenge of invasion ecology is to describe and interpret spatial and temporal patterns of species invasions. Here, we examined fish invasion patterns at four spatially structured and hierarchically nested scales across the contiguous United States (i.e., from large to small: region, basin, watershed, and sub-watershed). All spatial relationships in...

A hierarchical nest survival model integrating incomplete temporally varying covariates

PubMed Central

Converse, Sarah J; Royle, J Andrew; Adler, Peter H; Urbanek, Richard P; Barzen, Jeb A

2013-01-01

Nest success is a critical determinant of the dynamics of avian populations, and nest survival modeling has played a key role in advancing avian ecology and management. Beginning with the development of daily nest survival models, and proceeding through subsequent extensions, the capacity for modeling the effects of hypothesized factors on nest survival has expanded greatly. We extend nest survival models further by introducing an approach to deal with incompletely observed, temporally varying covariates using a hierarchical model. Hierarchical modeling offers a way to separate process and observational components of demographic models to obtain estimates of the parameters of primary interest, and to evaluate structural effects of ecological and management interest. We built a hierarchical model for daily nest survival to analyze nest data from reintroduced whooping cranes (Grus americana) in the Eastern Migratory Population. This reintroduction effort has been beset by poor reproduction, apparently due primarily to nest abandonment by breeding birds. We used the model to assess support for the hypothesis that nest abandonment is caused by harassment from biting insects. We obtained indices of blood-feeding insect populations based on the spatially interpolated counts of insects captured in carbon dioxide traps. However, insect trapping was not conducted daily, and so we had incomplete information on a temporally variable covariate of interest. We therefore supplemented our nest survival model with a parallel model for estimating the values of the missing insect covariates. We used Bayesian model selection to identify the best predictors of daily nest survival. Our results suggest that the black fly Simulium annulus may be negatively affecting nest survival of reintroduced whooping cranes, with decreasing nest survival as abundance of S. annulus increases. The modeling framework we have developed will be applied in the future to a larger data set to evaluate the biting-insect hypothesis and other hypotheses for nesting failure in this reintroduced population; resulting inferences will support ongoing efforts to manage this population via an adaptive management approach. Wider application of our approach offers promise for modeling the effects of other temporally varying, but imperfectly observed covariates on nest survival, including the possibility of modeling temporally varying covariates collected from incubating adults. PMID:24340185

A hierarchical nest survival model integrating incomplete temporally varying covariates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Adler, Peter H.; Urbanek, Richard P.; Barzan, Jeb A.

2013-01-01

Nest success is a critical determinant of the dynamics of avian populations, and nest survival modeling has played a key role in advancing avian ecology and management. Beginning with the development of daily nest survival models, and proceeding through subsequent extensions, the capacity for modeling the effects of hypothesized factors on nest survival has expanded greatly. We extend nest survival models further by introducing an approach to deal with incompletely observed, temporally varying covariates using a hierarchical model. Hierarchical modeling offers a way to separate process and observational components of demographic models to obtain estimates of the parameters of primary interest, and to evaluate structural effects of ecological and management interest. We built a hierarchical model for daily nest survival to analyze nest data from reintroduced whooping cranes (Grus americana) in the Eastern Migratory Population. This reintroduction effort has been beset by poor reproduction, apparently due primarily to nest abandonment by breeding birds. We used the model to assess support for the hypothesis that nest abandonment is caused by harassment from biting insects. We obtained indices of blood-feeding insect populations based on the spatially interpolated counts of insects captured in carbon dioxide traps. However, insect trapping was not conducted daily, and so we had incomplete information on a temporally variable covariate of interest. We therefore supplemented our nest survival model with a parallel model for estimating the values of the missing insect covariates. We used Bayesian model selection to identify the best predictors of daily nest survival. Our results suggest that the black fly Simulium annulus may be negatively affecting nest survival of reintroduced whooping cranes, with decreasing nest survival as abundance of S. annulus increases. The modeling framework we have developed will be applied in the future to a larger data set to evaluate the biting-insect hypothesis and other hypotheses for nesting failure in this reintroduced population; resulting inferences will support ongoing efforts to manage this population via an adaptive management approach. Wider application of our approach offers promise for modeling the effects of other temporally varying, but imperfectly observed covariates on nest survival, including the possibility of modeling temporally varying covariates collected from incubating adults.

Hierarchical spatial segregation of two Mediterranean vole species: the role of patch-network structure and matrix composition.

PubMed

Pita, Ricardo; Lambin, Xavier; Mira, António; Beja, Pedro

2016-09-01

According to ecological theory, the coexistence of competitors in patchy environments may be facilitated by hierarchical spatial segregation along axes of environmental variation, but empirical evidence is limited. Cabrera and water voles show a metapopulation-like structure in Mediterranean farmland, where they are known to segregate along space, habitat, and time axes within habitat patches. Here, we assess whether segregation also occurs among and within landscapes, and how this is influenced by patch-network and matrix composition. We surveyed 75 landscapes, each covering 78 ha, where we mapped all habitat patches potentially suitable for Cabrera and water voles, and the area effectively occupied by each species (extent of occupancy). The relatively large water vole tended to be the sole occupant of landscapes with high habitat amount but relatively low patch density (i.e., with a few large patches), and with a predominantly agricultural matrix, whereas landscapes with high patch density (i.e., many small patches) and low agricultural cover, tended to be occupied exclusively by the small Cabrera vole. The two species tended to co-occur in landscapes with intermediate patch-network and matrix characteristics, though their extents of occurrence were negatively correlated after controlling for environmental effects. In combination with our previous studies on the Cabrera-water vole system, these findings illustrated empirically the occurrence of hierarchical spatial segregation, ranging from within-patches to among-landscapes. Overall, our study suggests that recognizing the hierarchical nature of spatial segregation patterns and their major environmental drivers should enhance our understanding of species coexistence in patchy environments.

3D hierarchical spatial representation and memory of multimodal sensory data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosla, Deepak; Dow, Paul A.; Huber, David J.

2009-04-01

This paper describes an efficient method and system for representing, processing and understanding multi-modal sensory data. More specifically, it describes a computational method and system for how to process and remember multiple locations in multimodal sensory space (e.g., visual, auditory, somatosensory, etc.). The multimodal representation and memory is based on a biologically-inspired hierarchy of spatial representations implemented with novel analogues of real representations used in the human brain. The novelty of the work is in the computationally efficient and robust spatial representation of 3D locations in multimodal sensory space as well as an associated working memory for storage and recall of these representations at the desired level for goal-oriented action. We describe (1) A simple and efficient method for human-like hierarchical spatial representations of sensory data and how to associate, integrate and convert between these representations (head-centered coordinate system, body-centered coordinate, etc.); (2) a robust method for training and learning a mapping of points in multimodal sensory space (e.g., camera-visible object positions, location of auditory sources, etc.) to the above hierarchical spatial representations; and (3) a specification and implementation of a hierarchical spatial working memory based on the above for storage and recall at the desired level for goal-oriented action(s). This work is most useful for any machine or human-machine application that requires processing of multimodal sensory inputs, making sense of it from a spatial perspective (e.g., where is the sensory information coming from with respect to the machine and its parts) and then taking some goal-oriented action based on this spatial understanding. A multi-level spatial representation hierarchy means that heterogeneous sensory inputs (e.g., visual, auditory, somatosensory, etc.) can map onto the hierarchy at different levels. When controlling various machine/robot degrees of freedom, the desired movements and action can be computed from these different levels in the hierarchy. The most basic embodiment of this machine could be a pan-tilt camera system, an array of microphones, a machine with arm/hand like structure or/and a robot with some or all of the above capabilities. We describe the approach, system and present preliminary results on a real-robotic platform.

Object-based class modelling for multi-scale riparian forest habitat mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strasser, Thomas; Lang, Stefan

2015-05-01

Object-based class modelling allows for mapping complex, hierarchical habitat systems. The riparian zone, including forests, represents such a complex ecosystem. Forests within riparian zones are biologically high productive and characterized by a rich biodiversity; thus considered of high community interest with an imperative to be protected and regularly monitored. Satellite earth observation (EO) provides tools for capturing the current state of forest habitats such as forest composition including intermixture of non-native tree species. Here we present a semi-automated object based image analysis (OBIA) approach for the mapping of riparian forests by applying class modelling of habitats based on the European Nature Information System (EUNIS) habitat classifications and the European Habitats Directive (HabDir) Annex 1. A very high resolution (VHR) WorldView-2 satellite image provided the required spatial and spectral details for a multi-scale image segmentation and rule-base composition to generate a six-level hierarchical representation of riparian forest habitats. Thereby habitats were hierarchically represented within an image object hierarchy as forest stands, stands of homogenous tree species and single trees represented by sunlit tree crowns. 522 EUNIS level 3 (EUNIS-3) habitat patches with a mean patch size (MPS) of 12,349.64 m2 were modelled from 938 forest stand patches (MPS = 6868.20 m2) and 43,742 tree stand patches (MPS = 140.79 m2). The delineation quality of the modelled EUNIS-3 habitats (focal level) was quantitatively assessed to an expert-based visual interpretation showing a mean deviation of 11.71%.

Attention to Hierarchical Level Influences Attentional Selection of Spatial Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flevaris, Anastasia V.; Bentin, Shlomo; Robertson, Lynn C.

2011-01-01

Ample evidence suggests that global perception may involve low spatial frequency (LSF) processing and that local perception may involve high spatial frequency (HSF) processing (Shulman, Sullivan, Gish, & Sakoda, 1986; Shulman & Wilson, 1987; Robertson, 1996). It is debated whether SF selection is a low-level mechanism associating global…

Local overfishing may be avoided by examining parameters of a spatio-temporal model

PubMed Central

Shackell, Nancy; Mills Flemming, Joanna

2017-01-01

Spatial erosion of stock structure through local overfishing can lead to stock collapse because fish often prefer certain locations, and fisheries tend to focus on those locations. Fishery managers are challenged to maintain the integrity of the entire stock and require scientific approaches that provide them with sound advice. Here we propose a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal modelling framework for fish abundance data to estimate key parameters that define spatial stock structure: persistence (similarity of spatial structure over time), connectivity (coherence of temporal pattern over space), and spatial variance (variation across the seascape). The consideration of these spatial parameters in the stock assessment process can help identify the erosion of structure and assist in preventing local overfishing. We use Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in eastern Canada as a case study an examine the behaviour of these parameters from the height of the fishery through its collapse. We identify clear signals in parameter behaviour under circumstances of destructive stock erosion as well as for recovery of spatial structure even when combined with a non-recovery in abundance. Further, our model reveals the spatial pattern of areas of high and low density persists over the 41 years of available data and identifies the remnant patches. Models of this sort are crucial to recovery plans if we are to identify and protect remaining sources of recolonization for Atlantic cod. Our method is immediately applicable to other exploited species. PMID:28886179

Local overfishing may be avoided by examining parameters of a spatio-temporal model.

PubMed

Carson, Stuart; Shackell, Nancy; Mills Flemming, Joanna

2017-01-01

Spatial erosion of stock structure through local overfishing can lead to stock collapse because fish often prefer certain locations, and fisheries tend to focus on those locations. Fishery managers are challenged to maintain the integrity of the entire stock and require scientific approaches that provide them with sound advice. Here we propose a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal modelling framework for fish abundance data to estimate key parameters that define spatial stock structure: persistence (similarity of spatial structure over time), connectivity (coherence of temporal pattern over space), and spatial variance (variation across the seascape). The consideration of these spatial parameters in the stock assessment process can help identify the erosion of structure and assist in preventing local overfishing. We use Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in eastern Canada as a case study an examine the behaviour of these parameters from the height of the fishery through its collapse. We identify clear signals in parameter behaviour under circumstances of destructive stock erosion as well as for recovery of spatial structure even when combined with a non-recovery in abundance. Further, our model reveals the spatial pattern of areas of high and low density persists over the 41 years of available data and identifies the remnant patches. Models of this sort are crucial to recovery plans if we are to identify and protect remaining sources of recolonization for Atlantic cod. Our method is immediately applicable to other exploited species.

Modeling abundance using hierarchical distance sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, Andy; Kery, Marc

2016-01-01

In this chapter, we provide an introduction to classical distance sampling ideas for point and line transect data, and for continuous and binned distance data. We introduce the conditional and the full likelihood, and we discuss Bayesian analysis of these models in BUGS using the idea of data augmentation, which we discussed in Chapter 7. We then extend the basic ideas to the problem of hierarchical distance sampling (HDS), where we have multiple point or transect sample units in space (or possibly in time). The benefit of HDS in practice is that it allows us to directly model spatial variation in population size among these sample units. This is a preeminent concern of most field studies that use distance sampling methods, but it is not a problem that has received much attention in the literature. We show how to analyze HDS models in both the unmarked package and in the BUGS language for point and line transects, and for continuous and binned distance data. We provide a case study of HDS applied to a survey of the island scrub-jay on Santa Cruz Island, California.

HiPS - Hierarchical Progressive Survey Version 1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernique, Pierre; Allen, Mark; Boch, Thomas; Donaldson, Tom; Durand, Daniel; Ebisawa, Ken; Michel, Laurent; Salgado, Jesus; Stoehr, Felix; Fernique, Pierre

2017-05-01

This document presents HiPS, a hierarchical scheme for the description, storage and access of sky survey data. The system is based on hierarchical tiling of sky regions at finer and finer spatial resolution which facilitates a progressive view of a survey, and supports multi-resolution zooming and panning. HiPS uses the HEALPix tessellation of the sky as the basis for the scheme and is implemented as a simple file structure with a direct indexing scheme that leads to practical implementations.

Uncertainty in spatially explicit animal dispersal models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mooij, Wolf M.; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2003-01-01

Uncertainty in estimates of survival of dispersing animals is a vexing difficulty in conservation biology. The current notion is that this uncertainty decreases the usefulness of spatially explicit population models in particular. We examined this problem by comparing dispersal models of three levels of complexity: (1) an event-based binomial model that considers only the occurrence of mortality or arrival, (2) a temporally explicit exponential model that employs mortality and arrival rates, and (3) a spatially explicit grid-walk model that simulates the movement of animals through an artificial landscape. Each model was fitted to the same set of field data. A first objective of the paper is to illustrate how the maximum-likelihood method can be used in all three cases to estimate the means and confidence limits for the relevant model parameters, given a particular set of data on dispersal survival. Using this framework we show that the structure of the uncertainty for all three models is strikingly similar. In fact, the results of our unified approach imply that spatially explicit dispersal models, which take advantage of information on landscape details, suffer less from uncertainly than do simpler models. Moreover, we show that the proposed strategy of model development safeguards one from error propagation in these more complex models. Finally, our approach shows that all models related to animal dispersal, ranging from simple to complex, can be related in a hierarchical fashion, so that the various approaches to modeling such dispersal can be viewed from a unified perspective.

Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

PubMed

Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

2004-09-01

A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

Spatially localized structure-function relations in the elastic properties of sheared articular cartilage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silverberg, Jesse; Bonassar, Lawrence; Cohen, Itai

2013-03-01

Contemporary developments in therapeutic tissue engineering have been enabled by basic research efforts in the field of biomechanics. Further integration of technology in medicine requires a deeper understanding of the mechanical properties of soft biological materials and the structural origins of their response under extreme stresses and strains. Drawing on the science generated by the ``Extreme Mechanics'' community, we present experimental results on the mechanical properties of articular cartilage, a hierarchically structured soft biomaterial found in the joints of mammalian long bones. Measurements of the spatially localized structure and mechanical properties will be compared with theoretical descriptions based on networks of deformed rods, poro-visco-elasticity, and standard continuum models. Discrepancies between experiment and theory will be highlighted, and suggestions for how models can be improved will be given.

Linking bovine tuberculosis on cattle farms to white-tailed deer and environmental variables using Bayesian hierarchical analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walter, W. David; Smith, Rick; Vanderklok, Mike; VerCauterren, Kurt C.

2014-01-01

Bovine tuberculosis is a bacterial disease caused by Mycobacterium bovis in livestock and wildlife with hosts that include Eurasian badgers (Meles meles), brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Risk-assessment efforts in Michigan have been initiated on farms to minimize interactions of cattle with wildlife hosts but research onM. bovis on cattle farms has not investigated the spatial context of disease epidemiology. To incorporate spatially explicit data, initial likelihood of infection probabilities for cattle farms tested for M. bovis, prevalence of M. bovis in white-tailed deer, deer density, and environmental variables for each farm were modeled in a Bayesian hierarchical framework. We used geo-referenced locations of 762 cattle farms that have been tested for M. bovis, white-tailed deer prevalence, and several environmental variables that may lead to long-term survival and viability of M. bovis on farms and surrounding habitats (i.e., soil type, habitat type). Bayesian hierarchical analyses identified deer prevalence and proportion of sandy soil within our sampling grid as the most supported model. Analysis of cattle farms tested for M. bovisidentified that for every 1% increase in sandy soil resulted in an increase in odds of infection by 4%. Our analysis revealed that the influence of prevalence of M. bovis in white-tailed deer was still a concern even after considerable efforts to prevent cattle interactions with white-tailed deer through on-farm mitigation and reduction in the deer population. Cattle farms test positive for M. bovis annually in our study area suggesting that the potential for an environmental source either on farms or in the surrounding landscape may contributing to new or re-infections with M. bovis. Our research provides an initial assessment of potential environmental factors that could be incorporated into additional modeling efforts as more knowledge of deer herd factors and cattle farm prevalence is documented.

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy and spatial analysis of the feed industry.

PubMed

Paul, Mathilde; Abrial, David; Jarrige, Nathalie; Rican, Stéphane; Garrido, Myriam; Calavas, Didier; Ducrot, Christian

2007-06-01

In France, despite the ban of meat-and-bone meal (MBM) in cattle feed, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) was detected in hundreds of cattle born after the ban. To study the role of MBM, animal fat, and dicalcium phosphate on the risk for BSE after the feed ban, we conducted a spatial analysis of the feed industry. We used data from 629 BSE cases as well as data on use of each byproduct and market area of the feed factories. We mapped risk for BSE in 951 areas supplied by the same factories and connection with use of byproducts. A disease map of BSE with covariates was built with the hierarchical Bayesian modeling methods, based on Poisson distribution with spatial smoothing. Only use of MBM was spatially linked to risk for BSE, which highlights cross-contamination as the most probable source of infection after the feed ban.

Partitioning Detectability Components in Populations Subject to Within-Season Temporary Emigration Using Binomial Mixture Models

PubMed Central

O’Donnell, Katherine M.; Thompson, Frank R.; Semlitsch, Raymond D.

2015-01-01

Detectability of individual animals is highly variable and nearly always < 1; imperfect detection must be accounted for to reliably estimate population sizes and trends. Hierarchical models can simultaneously estimate abundance and effective detection probability, but there are several different mechanisms that cause variation in detectability. Neglecting temporary emigration can lead to biased population estimates because availability and conditional detection probability are confounded. In this study, we extend previous hierarchical binomial mixture models to account for multiple sources of variation in detectability. The state process of the hierarchical model describes ecological mechanisms that generate spatial and temporal patterns in abundance, while the observation model accounts for the imperfect nature of counting individuals due to temporary emigration and false absences. We illustrate our model’s potential advantages, including the allowance of temporary emigration between sampling periods, with a case study of southern red-backed salamanders Plethodon serratus. We fit our model and a standard binomial mixture model to counts of terrestrial salamanders surveyed at 40 sites during 3–5 surveys each spring and fall 2010–2012. Our models generated similar parameter estimates to standard binomial mixture models. Aspect was the best predictor of salamander abundance in our case study; abundance increased as aspect became more northeasterly. Increased time-since-rainfall strongly decreased salamander surface activity (i.e. availability for sampling), while higher amounts of woody cover objects and rocks increased conditional detection probability (i.e. probability of capture, given an animal is exposed to sampling). By explicitly accounting for both components of detectability, we increased congruence between our statistical modeling and our ecological understanding of the system. We stress the importance of choosing survey locations and protocols that maximize species availability and conditional detection probability to increase population parameter estimate reliability. PMID:25775182

Modeling languages for biochemical network simulation: reaction vs equation based approaches.

PubMed

Wiechert, Wolfgang; Noack, Stephan; Elsheikh, Atya

2010-01-01

Biochemical network modeling and simulation is an essential task in any systems biology project. The systems biology markup language (SBML) was established as a standardized model exchange language for mechanistic models. A specific strength of SBML is that numerous tools for formulating, processing, simulation and analysis of models are freely available. Interestingly, in the field of multidisciplinary simulation, the problem of model exchange between different simulation tools occurred much earlier. Several general modeling languages like Modelica have been developed in the 1990s. Modelica enables an equation based modular specification of arbitrary hierarchical differential algebraic equation models. Moreover, libraries for special application domains can be rapidly developed. This contribution compares the reaction based approach of SBML with the equation based approach of Modelica and explains the specific strengths of both tools. Several biological examples illustrating essential SBML and Modelica concepts are given. The chosen criteria for tool comparison are flexibility for constraint specification, different modeling flavors, hierarchical, modular and multidisciplinary modeling. Additionally, support for spatially distributed systems, event handling and network analysis features is discussed. As a major result it is shown that the choice of the modeling tool has a strong impact on the expressivity of the specified models but also strongly depends on the requirements of the application context.

Scalable hierarchical PDE sampler for generating spatially correlated random fields using nonmatching meshes: Scalable hierarchical PDE sampler using nonmatching meshes

DOE PAGES

Osborn, Sarah; Zulian, Patrick; Benson, Thomas; ...

2018-01-30

This work describes a domain embedding technique between two nonmatching meshes used for generating realizations of spatially correlated random fields with applications to large-scale sampling-based uncertainty quantification. The goal is to apply the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for the quantification of output uncertainties of PDEs with random input coefficients on general and unstructured computational domains. We propose a highly scalable, hierarchical sampling method to generate realizations of a Gaussian random field on a given unstructured mesh by solving a reaction–diffusion PDE with a stochastic right-hand side. The stochastic PDE is discretized using the mixed finite element method on anmore » embedded domain with a structured mesh, and then, the solution is projected onto the unstructured mesh. This work describes implementation details on how to efficiently transfer data from the structured and unstructured meshes at coarse levels, assuming that this can be done efficiently on the finest level. We investigate the efficiency and parallel scalability of the technique for the scalable generation of Gaussian random fields in three dimensions. An application of the MLMC method is presented for quantifying uncertainties of subsurface flow problems. Here, we demonstrate the scalability of the sampling method with nonmatching mesh embedding, coupled with a parallel forward model problem solver, for large-scale 3D MLMC simulations with up to 1.9·109 unknowns.« less

Fabrication of hierarchical hybrid structures using bio-enabled layer-by-layer self-assembly.

PubMed

Hnilova, Marketa; Karaca, Banu Taktak; Park, James; Jia, Carol; Wilson, Brandon R; Sarikaya, Mehmet; Tamerler, Candan

2012-05-01

Development of versatile and flexible assembly systems for fabrication of functional hybrid nanomaterials with well-defined hierarchical and spatial organization is of a significant importance in practical nanobiotechnology applications. Here we demonstrate a bio-enabled self-assembly technique for fabrication of multi-layered protein and nanometallic assemblies utilizing a modular gold-binding (AuBP1) fusion tag. To accomplish the bottom-up assembly we first genetically fused the AuBP1 peptide sequence to the C'-terminus of maltose-binding protein (MBP) using two different linkers to produce MBP-AuBP1 hetero-functional constructs. Using various spectroscopic techniques, surface plasmon resonance (SPR) and localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR), we verified the exceptional binding and self-assembly characteristics of AuBP1 peptide. The AuBP1 peptide tag can direct the organization of recombinant MBP protein on various gold surfaces through an efficient control of the organic-inorganic interface at the molecular level. Furthermore using a combination of soft-lithography, self-assembly techniques and advanced AuBP1 peptide tag technology, we produced spatially and hierarchically controlled protein multi-layered assemblies on gold nanoparticle arrays with high molecular packing density and pattering efficiency in simple, reproducible steps. This model system offers layer-by-layer assembly capability based on specific AuBP1 peptide tag and constitutes novel biological routes for biofabrication of various protein arrays, plasmon-active nanometallic assemblies and devices with controlled organization, packing density and architecture. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Scalable hierarchical PDE sampler for generating spatially correlated random fields using nonmatching meshes: Scalable hierarchical PDE sampler using nonmatching meshes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Osborn, Sarah; Zulian, Patrick; Benson, Thomas

This work describes a domain embedding technique between two nonmatching meshes used for generating realizations of spatially correlated random fields with applications to large-scale sampling-based uncertainty quantification. The goal is to apply the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for the quantification of output uncertainties of PDEs with random input coefficients on general and unstructured computational domains. We propose a highly scalable, hierarchical sampling method to generate realizations of a Gaussian random field on a given unstructured mesh by solving a reaction–diffusion PDE with a stochastic right-hand side. The stochastic PDE is discretized using the mixed finite element method on anmore » embedded domain with a structured mesh, and then, the solution is projected onto the unstructured mesh. This work describes implementation details on how to efficiently transfer data from the structured and unstructured meshes at coarse levels, assuming that this can be done efficiently on the finest level. We investigate the efficiency and parallel scalability of the technique for the scalable generation of Gaussian random fields in three dimensions. An application of the MLMC method is presented for quantifying uncertainties of subsurface flow problems. Here, we demonstrate the scalability of the sampling method with nonmatching mesh embedding, coupled with a parallel forward model problem solver, for large-scale 3D MLMC simulations with up to 1.9·109 unknowns.« less

A spatially explicit risk assessment approach: Cetaceans and marine traffic in the Pelagos Sanctuary (Mediterranean Sea)

PubMed Central

Arcangeli, Antonella; Prado Fonseca, Vinícius; Campana, Ilaria; Pierce, Graham J.; Rotta, Andrea; Bellido, Jose Maria

2017-01-01

Spatially explicit risk assessment is an essential component of Marine Spatial Planning (MSP), which provides a comprehensive framework for managing multiple uses of the marine environment, minimizing environmental impacts and conflicts among users. In this study, we assessed the risk of the exposure to high intensity vessel traffic areas for the three most abundant cetacean species (Stenella coeruleoalba, Tursiops truncatus and Balaenoptera physalus) in the southern area of the Pelagos Sanctuary, which is the only pelagic Marine Protected Area (MPA) for marine mammals in the Mediterranean Sea. In particular, we modeled the occurrence of the three cetacean species as a function of habitat variables in June by using hierarchical Bayesian spatial-temporal models. Similarly, we modelled the marine traffic intensity in order to find high risk areas and estimated the potential conflict due to the overlap with the cetacean home ranges. Results identified two main hot-spots of high intensity marine traffic in the area, which partially overlap with the area of presence of the studied species. Our findings emphasize the need for nationally relevant and transboundary planning and management measures for these marine species. PMID:28644882

A spatially explicit risk assessment approach: Cetaceans and marine traffic in the Pelagos Sanctuary (Mediterranean Sea).

PubMed

Pennino, Maria Grazia; Arcangeli, Antonella; Prado Fonseca, Vinícius; Campana, Ilaria; Pierce, Graham J; Rotta, Andrea; Bellido, Jose Maria

2017-01-01

Spatially explicit risk assessment is an essential component of Marine Spatial Planning (MSP), which provides a comprehensive framework for managing multiple uses of the marine environment, minimizing environmental impacts and conflicts among users. In this study, we assessed the risk of the exposure to high intensity vessel traffic areas for the three most abundant cetacean species (Stenella coeruleoalba, Tursiops truncatus and Balaenoptera physalus) in the southern area of the Pelagos Sanctuary, which is the only pelagic Marine Protected Area (MPA) for marine mammals in the Mediterranean Sea. In particular, we modeled the occurrence of the three cetacean species as a function of habitat variables in June by using hierarchical Bayesian spatial-temporal models. Similarly, we modelled the marine traffic intensity in order to find high risk areas and estimated the potential conflict due to the overlap with the cetacean home ranges. Results identified two main hot-spots of high intensity marine traffic in the area, which partially overlap with the area of presence of the studied species. Our findings emphasize the need for nationally relevant and transboundary planning and management measures for these marine species.

Hierarchical Recurrent Neural Hashing for Image Retrieval With Hierarchical Convolutional Features.

PubMed

Lu, Xiaoqiang; Chen, Yaxiong; Li, Xuelong

Hashing has been an important and effective technology in image retrieval due to its computational efficiency and fast search speed. The traditional hashing methods usually learn hash functions to obtain binary codes by exploiting hand-crafted features, which cannot optimally represent the information of the sample. Recently, deep learning methods can achieve better performance, since deep learning architectures can learn more effective image representation features. However, these methods only use semantic features to generate hash codes by shallow projection but ignore texture details. In this paper, we proposed a novel hashing method, namely hierarchical recurrent neural hashing (HRNH), to exploit hierarchical recurrent neural network to generate effective hash codes. There are three contributions of this paper. First, a deep hashing method is proposed to extensively exploit both spatial details and semantic information, in which, we leverage hierarchical convolutional features to construct image pyramid representation. Second, our proposed deep network can exploit directly convolutional feature maps as input to preserve the spatial structure of convolutional feature maps. Finally, we propose a new loss function that considers the quantization error of binarizing the continuous embeddings into the discrete binary codes, and simultaneously maintains the semantic similarity and balanceable property of hash codes. Experimental results on four widely used data sets demonstrate that the proposed HRNH can achieve superior performance over other state-of-the-art hashing methods.Hashing has been an important and effective technology in image retrieval due to its computational efficiency and fast search speed. The traditional hashing methods usually learn hash functions to obtain binary codes by exploiting hand-crafted features, which cannot optimally represent the information of the sample. Recently, deep learning methods can achieve better performance, since deep learning architectures can learn more effective image representation features. However, these methods only use semantic features to generate hash codes by shallow projection but ignore texture details. In this paper, we proposed a novel hashing method, namely hierarchical recurrent neural hashing (HRNH), to exploit hierarchical recurrent neural network to generate effective hash codes. There are three contributions of this paper. First, a deep hashing method is proposed to extensively exploit both spatial details and semantic information, in which, we leverage hierarchical convolutional features to construct image pyramid representation. Second, our proposed deep network can exploit directly convolutional feature maps as input to preserve the spatial structure of convolutional feature maps. Finally, we propose a new loss function that considers the quantization error of binarizing the continuous embeddings into the discrete binary codes, and simultaneously maintains the semantic similarity and balanceable property of hash codes. Experimental results on four widely used data sets demonstrate that the proposed HRNH can achieve superior performance over other state-of-the-art hashing methods.

SBML Level 3 package: Hierarchical Model Composition, Version 1 Release 3

PubMed Central

Smith, Lucian P.; Hucka, Michael; Hoops, Stefan; Finney, Andrew; Ginkel, Martin; Myers, Chris J.; Moraru, Ion; Liebermeister, Wolfram

2017-01-01

Summary Constructing a model in a hierarchical fashion is a natural approach to managing model complexity, and offers additional opportunities such as the potential to re-use model components. The SBML Level 3 Version 1 Core specification does not directly provide a mechanism for defining hierarchical models, but it does provide a mechanism for SBML packages to extend the Core specification and add additional syntactical constructs. The SBML Hierarchical Model Composition package for SBML Level 3 adds the necessary features to SBML to support hierarchical modeling. The package enables a modeler to include submodels within an enclosing SBML model, delete unneeded or redundant elements of that submodel, replace elements of that submodel with element of the containing model, and replace elements of the containing model with elements of the submodel. In addition, the package defines an optional “port” construct, allowing a model to be defined with suggested interfaces between hierarchical components; modelers can chose to use these interfaces, but they are not required to do so and can still interact directly with model elements if they so chose. Finally, the SBML Hierarchical Model Composition package is defined in such a way that a hierarchical model can be “flattened” to an equivalent, non-hierarchical version that uses only plain SBML constructs, thus enabling software tools that do not yet support hierarchy to nevertheless work with SBML hierarchical models. PMID:26528566

Dynamic foraging of a top predator in a seasonal polar marine environment.

PubMed

Weinstein, Ben G; Friedlaender, Ari S

2017-11-01

The seasonal movement of animals at broad spatial scales provides insight into life-history, ecology and conservation. By combining high-resolution satellite-tagged data with hierarchical Bayesian movement models, we can associate spatial patterns of movement with marine animal behavior. We used a multi-state mixture model to describe humpback whale traveling and area-restricted search states as they forage along the West Antarctic Peninsula. We estimated the change in the geography, composition and characteristics of these behavioral states through time. We show that whales later in the austral fall spent more time in movements associated with foraging, traveled at lower speeds between foraging areas, and shifted their distribution northward and inshore. Seasonal changes in movement are likely due to a combination of sea ice advance and regional shifts in the primary prey source. Our study is a step towards dynamic movement models in the marine environment at broad scales.

Modeling spatially-varying landscape change points in species occurrence thresholds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Midway, Stephen R.

2014-01-01

Predicting species distributions at scales of regions to continents is often necessary, as large-scale phenomena influence the distributions of spatially structured populations. Land use and land cover are important large-scale drivers of species distributions, and landscapes are known to create species occurrence thresholds, where small changes in a landscape characteristic results in abrupt changes in occurrence. The value of the landscape characteristic at which this change occurs is referred to as a change point. We present a hierarchical Bayesian threshold model (HBTM) that allows for estimating spatially varying parameters, including change points. Our model also allows for modeling estimated parameters in an effort to understand large-scale drivers of variability in land use and land cover on species occurrence thresholds. We use range-wide detection/nondetection data for the eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a stream-dwelling salmonid, to illustrate our HBTM for estimating and modeling spatially varying threshold parameters in species occurrence. We parameterized the model for investigating thresholds in landscape predictor variables that are measured as proportions, and which are therefore restricted to values between 0 and 1. Our HBTM estimated spatially varying thresholds in brook trout occurrence for both the proportion agricultural and urban land uses. There was relatively little spatial variation in change point estimates, although there was spatial variability in the overall shape of the threshold response and associated uncertainty. In addition, regional mean stream water temperature was correlated to the change point parameters for the proportion of urban land use, with the change point value increasing with increasing mean stream water temperature. We present a framework for quantify macrosystem variability in spatially varying threshold model parameters in relation to important large-scale drivers such as land use and land cover. Although the model presented is a logistic HBTM, it can easily be extended to accommodate other statistical distributions for modeling species richness or abundance.

Using Cluster Analysis to Compartmentalize a Large Managed Wetland Based on Physical, Biological, and Climatic Geospatial Attributes.

PubMed

Hahus, Ian; Migliaccio, Kati; Douglas-Mankin, Kyle; Klarenberg, Geraldine; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael

2018-04-27

Hierarchical and partitional cluster analyses were used to compartmentalize Water Conservation Area 1, a managed wetland within the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge in southeast Florida, USA, based on physical, biological, and climatic geospatial attributes. Single, complete, average, and Ward's linkages were tested during the hierarchical cluster analyses, with average linkage providing the best results. In general, the partitional method, partitioning around medoids, found clusters that were more evenly sized and more spatially aggregated than those resulting from the hierarchical analyses. However, hierarchical analysis appeared to be better suited to identify outlier regions that were significantly different from other areas. The clusters identified by geospatial attributes were similar to clusters developed for the interior marsh in a separate study using water quality attributes, suggesting that similar factors have influenced variations in both the set of physical, biological, and climatic attributes selected in this study and water quality parameters. However, geospatial data allowed further subdivision of several interior marsh clusters identified from the water quality data, potentially indicating zones with important differences in function. Identification of these zones can be useful to managers and modelers by informing the distribution of monitoring equipment and personnel as well as delineating regions that may respond similarly to future changes in management or climate.

Explaining local-scale species distributions: relative contributions of spatial autocorrelation and landscape heterogeneity for an avian assemblage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattsson, Brady J.; Zipkin, Elise F.; Gardner, Beth; Blank, Peter J.; Sauer, John R.; Royle, J. Andrew

2013-01-01

Understanding interactions between mobile species distributions and landcover characteristics remains an outstanding challenge in ecology. Multiple factors could explain species distributions including endogenous evolutionary traits leading to conspecific clustering and endogenous habitat features that support life history requirements. Birds are a useful taxon for examining hypotheses about the relative importance of these factors among species in a community. We developed a hierarchical Bayes approach to model the relationships between bird species occupancy and local landcover variables accounting for spatial autocorrelation, species similarities, and partial observability. We fit alternative occupancy models to detections of 90 bird species observed during repeat visits to 316 point-counts forming a 400-m grid throughout the Patuxent Wildlife Research Refuge in Maryland, USA. Models with landcover variables performed significantly better than our autologistic and null models, supporting the hypothesis that local landcover heterogeneity is important as an exogenous driver for species distributions. Conspecific clustering alone was a comparatively poor descriptor of local community composition, but there was evidence for spatial autocorrelation in all species. Considerable uncertainty remains whether landcover combined with spatial autocorrelation is most parsimonious for describing bird species distributions at a local scale. Spatial structuring may be weaker at intermediate scales within which dispersal is less frequent, information flows are localized, and landcover types become spatially diversified and therefore exhibit little aggregation. Examining such hypotheses across species assemblages contributes to our understanding of community-level associations with conspecifics and landscape composition.

Explaining local-scale species distributions: relative contributions of spatial autocorrelation and landscape heterogeneity for an avian assemblage.

PubMed

Mattsson, Brady J; Zipkin, Elise F; Gardner, Beth; Blank, Peter J; Sauer, John R; Royle, J Andrew

2013-01-01

Understanding interactions between mobile species distributions and landcover characteristics remains an outstanding challenge in ecology. Multiple factors could explain species distributions including endogenous evolutionary traits leading to conspecific clustering and endogenous habitat features that support life history requirements. Birds are a useful taxon for examining hypotheses about the relative importance of these factors among species in a community. We developed a hierarchical Bayes approach to model the relationships between bird species occupancy and local landcover variables accounting for spatial autocorrelation, species similarities, and partial observability. We fit alternative occupancy models to detections of 90 bird species observed during repeat visits to 316 point-counts forming a 400-m grid throughout the Patuxent Wildlife Research Refuge in Maryland, USA. Models with landcover variables performed significantly better than our autologistic and null models, supporting the hypothesis that local landcover heterogeneity is important as an exogenous driver for species distributions. Conspecific clustering alone was a comparatively poor descriptor of local community composition, but there was evidence for spatial autocorrelation in all species. Considerable uncertainty remains whether landcover combined with spatial autocorrelation is most parsimonious for describing bird species distributions at a local scale. Spatial structuring may be weaker at intermediate scales within which dispersal is less frequent, information flows are localized, and landcover types become spatially diversified and therefore exhibit little aggregation. Examining such hypotheses across species assemblages contributes to our understanding of community-level associations with conspecifics and landscape composition.

Explaining Local-Scale Species Distributions: Relative Contributions of Spatial Autocorrelation and Landscape Heterogeneity for an Avian Assemblage

PubMed Central

Mattsson, Brady J.; Zipkin, Elise F.; Gardner, Beth; Blank, Peter J.; Sauer, John R.; Royle, J. Andrew

2013-01-01

Understanding interactions between mobile species distributions and landcover characteristics remains an outstanding challenge in ecology. Multiple factors could explain species distributions including endogenous evolutionary traits leading to conspecific clustering and endogenous habitat features that support life history requirements. Birds are a useful taxon for examining hypotheses about the relative importance of these factors among species in a community. We developed a hierarchical Bayes approach to model the relationships between bird species occupancy and local landcover variables accounting for spatial autocorrelation, species similarities, and partial observability. We fit alternative occupancy models to detections of 90 bird species observed during repeat visits to 316 point-counts forming a 400-m grid throughout the Patuxent Wildlife Research Refuge in Maryland, USA. Models with landcover variables performed significantly better than our autologistic and null models, supporting the hypothesis that local landcover heterogeneity is important as an exogenous driver for species distributions. Conspecific clustering alone was a comparatively poor descriptor of local community composition, but there was evidence for spatial autocorrelation in all species. Considerable uncertainty remains whether landcover combined with spatial autocorrelation is most parsimonious for describing bird species distributions at a local scale. Spatial structuring may be weaker at intermediate scales within which dispersal is less frequent, information flows are localized, and landcover types become spatially diversified and therefore exhibit little aggregation. Examining such hypotheses across species assemblages contributes to our understanding of community-level associations with conspecifics and landscape composition. PMID:23393564

Spatial capture-recapture models for search-encounter data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Kery, Marc; Guelat, Jerome

2011-01-01

1. Spatial capture–recapture models make use of auxiliary data on capture location to provide density estimates for animal populations. Previously, models have been developed primarily for fixed trap arrays which define the observable locations of individuals by a set of discrete points. 2. Here, we develop a class of models for 'search-encounter' data, i.e. for detections of recognizable individuals in continuous space, not restricted to trap locations. In our hierarchical model, detection probability is related to the average distance between individual location and the survey path. The locations are allowed to change over time owing to movements of individuals, and individual locations are related formally by a model describing individual activity or home range centre which is itself regarded as a latent variable in the model. We provide a Bayesian analysis of the model in WinBUGS, and develop a custom MCMC algorithm in the R language. 3. The model is applied to simulated data and to territory mapping data for the Willow Tit from the Swiss Breeding Bird Survey MHB. While the observed density was 15 territories per nominal 1 km2 plot of unknown effective sample area, the model produced a density estimate of 21∙12 territories per square km (95% posterior interval: 17–26). 4. Spatial capture–recapture models are relevant to virtually all animal population studies that seek to estimate population size or density, yet existing models have been proposed mainly for conventional sampling using arrays of traps. Our model for search-encounter data, where the spatial pattern of searching can be arbitrary and may change over occasions, greatly expands the scope and utility of spatial capture–recapture models.

Genet-specific DNA methylation probabilities detected in a spatial epigenetic analysis of a clonal plant population.

PubMed

Araki, Kiwako S; Kubo, Takuya; Kudoh, Hiroshi

2017-01-01

In sessile organisms such as plants, spatial genetic structures of populations show long-lasting patterns. These structures have been analyzed across diverse taxa to understand the processes that determine the genetic makeup of organismal populations. For many sessile organisms that mainly propagate via clonal spread, epigenetic status can vary between clonal individuals in the absence of genetic changes. However, fewer previous studies have explored the epigenetic properties in comparison to the genetic properties of natural plant populations. Here, we report the simultaneous evaluation of the spatial structure of genetic and epigenetic variation in a natural population of the clonal plant Cardamine leucantha. We applied a hierarchical Bayesian model to evaluate the effects of membership of a genet (a group of individuals clonally derived from a single seed) and vegetation cover on the epigenetic variation between ramets (clonal plants that are physiologically independent individuals). We sampled 332 ramets in a 20 m × 20 m study plot that contained 137 genets (identified using eight SSR markers). We detected epigenetic variation in DNA methylation at 24 methylation-sensitive amplified fragment length polymorphism (MS-AFLP) loci. There were significant genet effects at all 24 MS-AFLP loci in the distribution of subepiloci. Vegetation cover had no statistically significant effect on variation in the majority of MS-AFLP loci. The spatial aggregation of epigenetic variation is therefore largely explained by the aggregation of ramets that belong to the same genets. By applying hierarchical Bayesian analyses, we successfully identified a number of genet-specific changes in epigenetic status within a natural plant population in a complex context, where genotypes and environmental factors are unevenly distributed. This finding suggests that it requires further studies on the spatial epigenetic structure of natural populations of diverse organisms, particularly for sessile clonal species.

Iowa radon leukaemia study: a hierarchical population risk model for spatially correlated exposure measured with error.

PubMed

Smith, Brian J; Zhang, Lixun; Field, R William

2007-11-10

This paper presents a Bayesian model that allows for the joint prediction of county-average radon levels and estimation of the associated leukaemia risk. The methods are motivated by radon data from an epidemiologic study of residential radon in Iowa that include 2726 outdoor and indoor measurements. Prediction of county-average radon is based on a geostatistical model for the radon data which assumes an underlying continuous spatial process. In the radon model, we account for uncertainties due to incomplete spatial coverage, spatial variability, characteristic differences between homes, and detector measurement error. The predicted radon averages are, in turn, included as a covariate in Poisson models for incident cases of acute lymphocytic (ALL), acute myelogenous (AML), chronic lymphocytic (CLL), and chronic myelogenous (CML) leukaemias reported to the Iowa cancer registry from 1973 to 2002. Since radon and leukaemia risk are modelled simultaneously in our approach, the resulting risk estimates accurately reflect uncertainties in the predicted radon exposure covariate. Posterior mean (95 per cent Bayesian credible interval) estimates of the relative risk associated with a 1 pCi/L increase in radon for ALL, AML, CLL, and CML are 0.91 (0.78-1.03), 1.01 (0.92-1.12), 1.06 (0.96-1.16), and 1.12 (0.98-1.27), respectively. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An Active Learning Framework for Hyperspectral Image Classification Using Hierarchical Segmentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Zhou; Pasolli, Edoardo; Crawford, Melba M.; Tilton, James C.

2015-01-01

Augmenting spectral data with spatial information for image classification has recently gained significant attention, as classification accuracy can often be improved by extracting spatial information from neighboring pixels. In this paper, we propose a new framework in which active learning (AL) and hierarchical segmentation (HSeg) are combined for spectral-spatial classification of hyperspectral images. The spatial information is extracted from a best segmentation obtained by pruning the HSeg tree using a new supervised strategy. The best segmentation is updated at each iteration of the AL process, thus taking advantage of informative labeled samples provided by the user. The proposed strategy incorporates spatial information in two ways: 1) concatenating the extracted spatial features and the original spectral features into a stacked vector and 2) extending the training set using a self-learning-based semi-supervised learning (SSL) approach. Finally, the two strategies are combined within an AL framework. The proposed framework is validated with two benchmark hyperspectral datasets. Higher classification accuracies are obtained by the proposed framework with respect to five other state-of-the-art spectral-spatial classification approaches. Moreover, the effectiveness of the proposed pruning strategy is also demonstrated relative to the approaches based on a fixed segmentation.

Network structure of subway passenger flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Q.; Mao, B. H.; Bai, Y.

2016-03-01

The results of transportation infrastructure network analyses have been used to analyze complex networks in a topological context. However, most modeling approaches, including those based on complex network theory, do not fully account for real-life traffic patterns and may provide an incomplete view of network functions. This study utilizes trip data obtained from the Beijing Subway System to characterize individual passenger movement patterns. A directed weighted passenger flow network was constructed from the subway infrastructure network topology by incorporating trip data. The passenger flow networks exhibit several properties that can be characterized by power-law distributions based on flow size, and log-logistic distributions based on the fraction of boarding and departing passengers. The study also characterizes the temporal patterns of in-transit and waiting passengers and provides a hierarchical clustering structure for passenger flows. This hierarchical flow organization varies in the spatial domain. Ten cluster groups were identified, indicating a hierarchical urban polycentric structure composed of large concentrated flows at urban activity centers. These empirical findings provide insights regarding urban human mobility patterns within a large subway network.

Hierarchical modeling of bycatch rates of sea turtles in the western North Atlantic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, B.; Sullivan, P.J.; Epperly, S.; Morreale, S.J.

2008-01-01

Previous studies indicate that the locations of the endangered loggerhead Caretta caretta and critically endangered leatherback Dermochelys coriacea sea turtles are influenced by water temperatures, and that incidental catch rates in the pelagic longline fishery vary by region. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model to examine the effects of environmental variables, including water temperature, on the number of sea turtles captured in the US pelagic longline fishery in the western North Atlantic. The modeling structure is highly flexible, utilizes a Bayesian model selection technique, and is fully implemented in the software program WinBUGS. The number of sea turtles captured is modeled as a zero-inflated Poisson distribution and the model incorporates fixed effects to examine region-specific differences in the parameter estimates. Results indicate that water temperature, region, bottom depth, and target species are all significant predictors of the number of loggerhead sea turtles captured. For leatherback sea turtles, the model with only target species had the most posterior model weight, though a re-parameterization of the model indicates that temperature influences the zero-inflation parameter. The relationship between the number of sea turtles captured and the variables of interest all varied by region. This suggests that management decisions aimed at reducing sea turtle bycatch may be more effective if they are spatially explicit. ?? Inter-Research 2008.

Multi-scale chromatin state annotation using a hierarchical hidden Markov model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marco, Eugenio; Meuleman, Wouter; Huang, Jialiang; Glass, Kimberly; Pinello, Luca; Wang, Jianrong; Kellis, Manolis; Yuan, Guo-Cheng

2017-04-01

Chromatin-state analysis is widely applied in the studies of development and diseases. However, existing methods operate at a single length scale, and therefore cannot distinguish large domains from isolated elements of the same type. To overcome this limitation, we present a hierarchical hidden Markov model, diHMM, to systematically annotate chromatin states at multiple length scales. We apply diHMM to analyse a public ChIP-seq data set. diHMM not only accurately captures nucleosome-level information, but identifies domain-level states that vary in nucleosome-level state composition, spatial distribution and functionality. The domain-level states recapitulate known patterns such as super-enhancers, bivalent promoters and Polycomb repressed regions, and identify additional patterns whose biological functions are not yet characterized. By integrating chromatin-state information with gene expression and Hi-C data, we identify context-dependent functions of nucleosome-level states. Thus, diHMM provides a powerful tool for investigating the role of higher-order chromatin structure in gene regulation.

Hierarchical models for epidermal nerve fiber data.

PubMed

Andersson, Claes; Rajala, Tuomas; Särkkä, Aila

2018-02-10

While epidermal nerve fiber (ENF) data have been used to study the effects of small fiber neuropathies through the density and the spatial patterns of the ENFs, little research has been focused on the effects on the individual nerve fibers. Studying the individual nerve fibers might give a better understanding of the effects of the neuropathy on the growth process of the individual ENFs. In this study, data from 32 healthy volunteers and 20 diabetic subjects, obtained from suction induced skin blister biopsies, are analyzed by comparing statistics for the nerve fibers as a whole and for the segments that a nerve fiber is composed of. Moreover, it is evaluated whether this type of data can be used to detect diabetic neuropathy, by using hierarchical models to perform unsupervised classification of the subjects. It is found that using the information about the individual nerve fibers in combination with the ENF counts yields a considerable improvement as compared to using the ENF counts only. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Toughening mystery of natural rubber deciphered by double network incorporating hierarchical structures

PubMed Central

Zhou, Weiming; Li, Xiangyang; Lu, Jie; Huang, Ningdong; Chen, Liang; Qi, Zeming; Li, Liangbin; Liang, Haiyi

2014-01-01

As an indispensible material for modern society, natural rubber possesses peerless mechanical properties such as strength and toughness over its artificial analogues, which remains a mystery. Intensive experimental and theoretical investigations have revealed the self-enhancement of natural rubber due to strain-induced crystallization. However a rigorous model on the self-enhancement, elucidating natural rubber's extraordinary mechanical properties, is obscured by deficient understanding of the local hierarchical structure under strain. With spatially resolved synchrotron radiation micro-beam scanning X-ray diffraction we discover weak oscillation in distributions of strain-induced crystallinity around crack tip for stretched natural rubber film, demonstrating a soft-hard double network structure. The fracture energy enhancement factor obtained by utilizing the double network model indicates an enhancement of toughness by 3 orders. It's proposed that upon stretching spontaneously developed double network structures integrating hierarchy at multi length-scale in natural rubber play an essential role in its remarkable mechanical performance. PMID:25511479

Simulating the heterogeneity in braided channel belt deposits: 1. A geometric-based methodology and code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramanathan, Ramya; Guin, Arijit; Ritzi, Robert W.; Dominic, David F.; Freedman, Vicky L.; Scheibe, Timothy D.; Lunt, Ian A.

2010-04-01

A geometric-based simulation methodology was developed and incorporated into a computer code to model the hierarchical stratal architecture, and the corresponding spatial distribution of permeability, in braided channel belt deposits. The code creates digital models of these deposits as a three-dimensional cubic lattice, which can be used directly in numerical aquifer or reservoir models for fluid flow. The digital models have stratal units defined from the kilometer scale to the centimeter scale. These synthetic deposits are intended to be used as high-resolution base cases in various areas of computational research on multiscale flow and transport processes, including the testing of upscaling theories. The input parameters are primarily univariate statistics. These include the mean and variance for characteristic lengths of sedimentary unit types at each hierarchical level, and the mean and variance of log-permeability for unit types defined at only the lowest level (smallest scale) of the hierarchy. The code has been written for both serial and parallel execution. The methodology is described in part 1 of this paper. In part 2 (Guin et al., 2010), models generated by the code are presented and evaluated.

Simulating the Heterogeneity in Braided Channel Belt Deposits: Part 1. A Geometric-Based Methodology and Code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramanathan, Ramya; Guin, Arijit; Ritzi, Robert W.

A geometric-based simulation methodology was developed and incorporated into a computer code to model the hierarchical stratal architecture, and the corresponding spatial distribution of permeability, in braided channel belt deposits. The code creates digital models of these deposits as a three-dimensional cubic lattice, which can be used directly in numerical aquifer or reservoir models for fluid flow. The digital models have stratal units defined from the km scale to the cm scale. These synthetic deposits are intended to be used as high-resolution base cases in various areas of computational research on multiscale flow and transport processes, including the testing ofmore » upscaling theories. The input parameters are primarily univariate statistics. These include the mean and variance for characteristic lengths of sedimentary unit types at each hierarchical level, and the mean and variance of log-permeability for unit types defined at only the lowest level (smallest scale) of the hierarchy. The code has been written for both serial and parallel execution. The methodology is described in Part 1 of this series. In Part 2, models generated by the code are presented and evaluated.« less

Hierarchical spatiotemporal matrix models for characterizing invasions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, M.B.; Wikle, C.K.; Dorazio, R.M.; Royle, J. Andrew

2007-01-01

The growth and dispersal of biotic organisms is an important subject in ecology. Ecologists are able to accurately describe survival and fecundity in plant and animal populations and have developed quantitative approaches to study the dynamics of dispersal and population size. Of particular interest are the dynamics of invasive species. Such nonindigenous animals and plants can levy significant impacts on native biotic communities. Effective models for relative abundance have been developed; however, a better understanding of the dynamics of actual population size (as opposed to relative abundance) in an invasion would be beneficial to all branches of ecology. In this article, we adopt a hierarchical Bayesian framework for modeling the invasion of such species while addressing the discrete nature of the data and uncertainty associated with the probability of detection. The nonlinear dynamics between discrete time points are intuitively modeled through an embedded deterministic population model with density-dependent growth and dispersal components. Additionally, we illustrate the importance of accommodating spatially varying dispersal rates. The method is applied to the specific case of the Eurasian Collared-Dove, an invasive species at mid-invasion in the United States at the time of this writing.

Hierarchical spatiotemporal matrix models for characterizing invasions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, M.B.; Wikle, C.K.; Dorazio, R.M.; Royle, J. Andrew

2007-01-01

The growth and dispersal of biotic organisms is an important subject in ecology. Ecologists are able to accurately describe survival and fecundity in plant and animal populations and have developed quantitative approaches to study the dynamics of dispersal and population size. Of particular interest are the dynamics of invasive species. Such nonindigenous animals and plants can levy significant impacts on native biotic communities. Effective models for relative abundance have been developed; however, a better understanding of the dynamics of actual population size (as opposed to relative abundance) in an invasion would be beneficial to all branches of ecology. In this article, we adopt a hierarchical Bayesian framework for modeling the invasion of such species while addressing the discrete nature of the data and uncertainty associated with the probability of detection. The nonlinear dynamics between discrete time points are intuitively modeled through an embedded deterministic population model with density-dependent growth and dispersal components. Additionally, we illustrate the importance of accommodating spatially varying dispersal rates. The method is applied to the specific case of the Eurasian Collared-Dove, an invasive species at mid-invasion in the United States at the time of this writing. ?? 2006, The International Biometric Society.

Remote-sensing supported monitoring of global biodiversity change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jetz, W.; Tuanmu, M. N.; W, A.; Melton, F. S.; Parmentier, B.; Amatulli, G.; Guzman, A.

2016-12-01

Remote sensing combined with biodiversity observation offers an unrivalled tool for understanding and predicting species distributions and their changes at the planetary scale. I will illustrate recently developed high-resolution remote-sensing based layers targeted for spatiotemporal biodiversity modeling, addressing climate, environment, topography, and habitat heterogeneity. In particular, I will illustrate the development and use of global MODIS-derived environmental layers for biodiversity assessment and change monitoring. Remote-sensing based capture of these putative predictors of biodiversity dynamics provides more a reliable signal than spatially interpolated layers and avoids inflated spatial autocorrelation. The layers result in more accurate models of species occurrence and are more readily able to address the scale of processes underpinning species distributions, e.g. when combined with emerging hierarchical, cross-scale models. I illustrate the multiple ways in which this type of information, based on continuously collected data, supports the prediction of not just spatial but also temporal variation in biodiversity. Using implementations in the Map of Life infrastructure I will showcase new indicators of species distribution and change that demonstrate these new opportunities.

Ranging through Gabor logons-a consistent, hierarchical approach.

PubMed

Chang, C; Chatterjee, S

1993-01-01

In this work, the correspondence problem in stereo vision is handled by matching two sets of dense feature vectors. Inspired by biological evidence, these feature vectors are generated by a correlation between a bank of Gabor sensors and the intensity image. The sensors consist of two-dimensional Gabor filters at various scales (spatial frequencies) and orientations, which bear close resemblance to the receptive field profiles of simple V1 cells in visual cortex. A hierarchical, stochastic relaxation method is then used to obtain the dense stereo disparities. Unlike traditional hierarchical methods for stereo, feature based hierarchical processing yields consistent disparities. To avoid false matchings due to static occlusion, a dual matching, based on the imaging geometry, is used.

Bayesian spatio-temporal discard model in a demersal trawl fishery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grazia Pennino, M.; Muñoz, Facundo; Conesa, David; López-Quílez, Antonio; Bellido, José M.

2014-07-01

Spatial management of discards has recently been proposed as a useful tool for the protection of juveniles, by reducing discard rates and can be used as a buffer against management errors and recruitment failure. In this study Bayesian hierarchical spatial models have been used to analyze about 440 trawl fishing operations of two different metiers, sampled between 2009 and 2012, in order to improve our understanding of factors that influence the quantity of discards and to identify their spatio-temporal distribution in the study area. Our analysis showed that the relative importance of each variable was different for each metier, with a few similarities. In particular, the random vessel effect and seasonal variability were identified as main driving variables for both metiers. Predictive maps of the abundance of discards and maps of the posterior mean of the spatial component show several hot spots with high discard concentration for each metier. We argue how the seasonal/spatial effects, and the knowledge about the factors influential to discarding, could potentially be exploited as potential mitigation measures for future fisheries management strategies. However, misidentification of hotspots and uncertain predictions can culminate in inappropriate mitigation practices which can sometimes be irreversible. The proposed Bayesian spatial method overcomes these issues, since it offers a unified approach which allows the incorporation of spatial random-effect terms, spatial correlation of the variables and the uncertainty of the parameters in the modeling process, resulting in a better quantification of the uncertainty and accurate predictions.

Electrophysiological Indices of Spatial Attention during Global/Local Processing in Good and Poor Phonological Decoders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matthews, Allison Jane; Martin, Frances Heritage

2009-01-01

Previous research suggests a relationship between spatial attention and phonological decoding in developmental dyslexia. The aim of this study was to examine differences between good and poor phonological decoders in the allocation of spatial attention to global and local levels of hierarchical stimuli. A further aim was to investigate the…

Functional mechanisms of probabilistic inference in feature- and space-based attentional systems.

PubMed

Dombert, Pascasie L; Kuhns, Anna; Mengotti, Paola; Fink, Gereon R; Vossel, Simone

2016-11-15

Humans flexibly attend to features or locations and these processes are influenced by the probability of sensory events. We combined computational modeling of response times with fMRI to compare the functional correlates of (re-)orienting, and the modulation by probabilistic inference in spatial and feature-based attention systems. Twenty-four volunteers performed two task versions with spatial or color cues. Percentage of cue validity changed unpredictably. A hierarchical Bayesian model was used to derive trial-wise estimates of probability-dependent attention, entering the fMRI analysis as parametric regressors. Attentional orienting activated a dorsal frontoparietal network in both tasks, without significant parametric modulation. Spatially invalid trials activated a bilateral frontoparietal network and the precuneus, while invalid feature trials activated the left intraparietal sulcus (IPS). Probability-dependent attention modulated activity in the precuneus, left posterior IPS, middle occipital gyrus, and right temporoparietal junction for spatial attention, and in the left anterior IPS for feature-based and spatial attention. These findings provide novel insights into the generality and specificity of the functional basis of attentional control. They suggest that probabilistic inference can distinctively affect each attentional subsystem, but that there is an overlap in the left IPS, which responds to both spatial and feature-based expectancy violations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Land System representation for global assessments and land-use modeling.

PubMed

van Asselen, Sanneke; Verburg, Peter H

2012-10-01

Current global scale land-change models used for integrated assessments and climate modeling are based on classifications of land cover. However, land-use management intensity and livestock keeping are also important aspects of land use, and are an integrated part of land systems. This article aims to classify, map, and to characterize Land Systems (LS) at a global scale and analyze the spatial determinants of these systems. Besides proposing such a classification, the article tests if global assessments can be based on globally uniform allocation rules. Land cover, livestock, and agricultural intensity data are used to map LS using a hierarchical classification method. Logistic regressions are used to analyze variation in spatial determinants of LS. The analysis of the spatial determinants of LS indicates strong associations between LS and a range of socioeconomic and biophysical indicators of human-environment interactions. The set of identified spatial determinants of a LS differs among regions and scales, especially for (mosaic) cropland systems, grassland systems with livestock, and settlements. (Semi-)Natural LS have more similar spatial determinants across regions and scales. Using LS in global models is expected to result in a more accurate representation of land use capturing important aspects of land systems and land architecture: the variation in land cover and the link between land-use intensity and landscape composition. Because the set of most important spatial determinants of LS varies among regions and scales, land-change models that include the human drivers of land change are best parameterized at sub-global level, where similar biophysical, socioeconomic and cultural conditions prevail in the specific regions. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Task Switching in a Hierarchical Task Structure: Evidence for the Fragility of the Task Repetition Benefit

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lien, Mei-Ching; Ruthruff, Eric

2004-01-01

This study examined how task switching is affected by hierarchical task organization. Traditional task-switching studies, which use a constant temporal and spatial distance between each task element (defined as a stimulus requiring a response), promote a flat task structure. Using this approach, Experiment 1 revealed a large switch cost of 238 ms.…

A review of surrogate models and their application to groundwater modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asher, M. J.; Croke, B. F. W.; Jakeman, A. J.; Peeters, L. J. M.

2015-08-01

The spatially and temporally variable parameters and inputs to complex groundwater models typically result in long runtimes which hinder comprehensive calibration, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis. Surrogate modeling aims to provide a simpler, and hence faster, model which emulates the specified output of a more complex model in function of its inputs and parameters. In this review paper, we summarize surrogate modeling techniques in three categories: data-driven, projection, and hierarchical-based approaches. Data-driven surrogates approximate a groundwater model through an empirical model that captures the input-output mapping of the original model. Projection-based models reduce the dimensionality of the parameter space by projecting the governing equations onto a basis of orthonormal vectors. In hierarchical or multifidelity methods the surrogate is created by simplifying the representation of the physical system, such as by ignoring certain processes, or reducing the numerical resolution. In discussing the application to groundwater modeling of these methods, we note several imbalances in the existing literature: a large body of work on data-driven approaches seemingly ignores major drawbacks to the methods; only a fraction of the literature focuses on creating surrogates to reproduce outputs of fully distributed groundwater models, despite these being ubiquitous in practice; and a number of the more advanced surrogate modeling methods are yet to be fully applied in a groundwater modeling context.

Cognitive predictors of copying and drawing from memory of the Rey-Osterrieth complex figure in 7- to 10-year-old children.

PubMed

Senese, Vincenzo Paolo; De Lucia, Natascia; Conson, Massimiliano

2015-01-01

Cognitive models of drawing are mainly based on assessment of copying performance of adults, whereas only a few studies have verified these models in young children. Moreover, developmental investigations have only rarely performed a systematic examination of the contribution of perceptual and representational visuo-spatial processes to copying and drawing from memory. In this study we investigated the role of visual perception and mental representation in both copying and drawing from memory skills in a sample of 227 typically developing children (53% females) aged 7-10 years. Participants underwent a neuropsychological assessment and the Rey-Osterrieth Complex Figure (ROCF). The fit and invariance of the predictive model considering visuo-spatial abilities, working memory, and executive functions were tested by means of hierarchical regressions and path analysis. Results showed that, in a gender invariant way, visual perception abilities and spatial mental representation had a direct effect on copying performance, whereas copying performance was the only specific predictor for drawing from memory. These effects were independent from age and socioeconomic status, and showed that cognitive models of drawing built up for adults could be considered for predicting copying and drawing from memory in children.

Deep recurrent neural network reveals a hierarchy of process memory during dynamic natural vision.

PubMed

Shi, Junxing; Wen, Haiguang; Zhang, Yizhen; Han, Kuan; Liu, Zhongming

2018-05-01

The human visual cortex extracts both spatial and temporal visual features to support perception and guide behavior. Deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) provide a computational framework to model cortical representation and organization for spatial visual processing, but unable to explain how the brain processes temporal information. To overcome this limitation, we extended a CNN by adding recurrent connections to different layers of the CNN to allow spatial representations to be remembered and accumulated over time. The extended model, or the recurrent neural network (RNN), embodied a hierarchical and distributed model of process memory as an integral part of visual processing. Unlike the CNN, the RNN learned spatiotemporal features from videos to enable action recognition. The RNN better predicted cortical responses to natural movie stimuli than the CNN, at all visual areas, especially those along the dorsal stream. As a fully observable model of visual processing, the RNN also revealed a cortical hierarchy of temporal receptive window, dynamics of process memory, and spatiotemporal representations. These results support the hypothesis of process memory, and demonstrate the potential of using the RNN for in-depth computational understanding of dynamic natural vision. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

In situ analysis of the organic framework in the prismatic layer of mollusc shell.

PubMed

Tong, Hua; Hu, Jiming; Ma, Wentao; Zhong, Guirong; Yao, Songnian; Cao, Nianxing

2002-06-01

A novel in situ analytic approach was constructed by means of ion sputtering, decalcification and deprotein techniques combining with scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscope (TEM) ultrastructural analysis. The method was employed to determine the spatial distribution of the organic framework outside and the inner crystal and organic/inorganic interface spatial geometrical relationship in the prismatic layer of cristaris plicate (leach). The results show that there is a substructure of organic matrix in the intracrystalline region. The prismatic layer forms according to strict hierarchical configuration of regular pattern. Each unit of organic template of prismatic layer can uniquely determine the column crystal growth direction, spatial orientation and size. Cavity templates are responsible for supporting. limiting size and shape and determining the crystal growth spatial orientation, while the intracrystal organic matrix is responsible for providing nucleation point and inducing the nucleation process of calcite. The stereo hierarchical fabrication of prismatic layer was elucidated for the first time.

Selecting habitat to survive: the impact of road density on survival in a large carnivore.

PubMed

Basille, Mathieu; Van Moorter, Bram; Herfindal, Ivar; Martin, Jodie; Linnell, John D C; Odden, John; Andersen, Reidar; Gaillard, Jean-Michel

2013-01-01

Habitat selection studies generally assume that animals select habitat and food resources at multiple scales to maximise their fitness. However, animals sometimes prefer habitats of apparently low quality, especially when considering the costs associated with spatially heterogeneous human disturbance. We used spatial variation in human disturbance, and its consequences on lynx survival, a direct fitness component, to test the Hierarchical Habitat Selection hypothesis from a population of Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx in southern Norway. Data from 46 lynx monitored with telemetry indicated that a high proportion of forest strongly reduced the risk of mortality from legal hunting at the home range scale, while increasing road density strongly increased such risk at the finer scale within the home range. We found hierarchical effects of the impact of human disturbance, with a higher road density at a large scale reinforcing its negative impact at a fine scale. Conversely, we demonstrated that lynx shifted their habitat selection to avoid areas with the highest road densities within their home ranges, thus supporting a compensatory mechanism at fine scale enabling lynx to mitigate the impact of large-scale disturbance. Human impact, positively associated with high road accessibility, was thus a stronger driver of lynx space use at a finer scale, with home range characteristics nevertheless constraining habitat selection. Our study demonstrates the truly hierarchical nature of habitat selection, which aims at maximising fitness by selecting against limiting factors at multiple spatial scales, and indicates that scale-specific heterogeneity of the environment is driving individual spatial behaviour, by means of trade-offs across spatial scales.

A Review of the Statistical and Quantitative Methods Used to Study Alcohol-Attributable Crime.

PubMed

Fitterer, Jessica L; Nelson, Trisalyn A

2015-01-01

Modelling the relationship between alcohol consumption and crime generates new knowledge for crime prevention strategies. Advances in data, particularly data with spatial and temporal attributes, have led to a growing suite of applied methods for modelling. In support of alcohol and crime researchers we synthesized and critiqued existing methods of spatially and quantitatively modelling the effects of alcohol exposure on crime to aid method selection, and identify new opportunities for analysis strategies. We searched the alcohol-crime literature from 1950 to January 2014. Analyses that statistically evaluated or mapped the association between alcohol and crime were included. For modelling purposes, crime data were most often derived from generalized police reports, aggregated to large spatial units such as census tracts or postal codes, and standardized by residential population data. Sixty-eight of the 90 selected studies included geospatial data of which 48 used cross-sectional datasets. Regression was the prominent modelling choice (n = 78) though dependent on data many variations existed. There are opportunities to improve information for alcohol-attributable crime prevention by using alternative population data to standardize crime rates, sourcing crime information from non-traditional platforms (social media), increasing the number of panel studies, and conducting analysis at the local level (neighbourhood, block, or point). Due to the spatio-temporal advances in crime data, we expect a continued uptake of flexible Bayesian hierarchical modelling, a greater inclusion of spatial-temporal point pattern analysis, and shift toward prospective (forecast) modelling over small areas (e.g., blocks).

A Review of the Statistical and Quantitative Methods Used to Study Alcohol-Attributable Crime

PubMed Central

Fitterer, Jessica L.; Nelson, Trisalyn A.

2015-01-01

Modelling the relationship between alcohol consumption and crime generates new knowledge for crime prevention strategies. Advances in data, particularly data with spatial and temporal attributes, have led to a growing suite of applied methods for modelling. In support of alcohol and crime researchers we synthesized and critiqued existing methods of spatially and quantitatively modelling the effects of alcohol exposure on crime to aid method selection, and identify new opportunities for analysis strategies. We searched the alcohol-crime literature from 1950 to January 2014. Analyses that statistically evaluated or mapped the association between alcohol and crime were included. For modelling purposes, crime data were most often derived from generalized police reports, aggregated to large spatial units such as census tracts or postal codes, and standardized by residential population data. Sixty-eight of the 90 selected studies included geospatial data of which 48 used cross-sectional datasets. Regression was the prominent modelling choice (n = 78) though dependent on data many variations existed. There are opportunities to improve information for alcohol-attributable crime prevention by using alternative population data to standardize crime rates, sourcing crime information from non-traditional platforms (social media), increasing the number of panel studies, and conducting analysis at the local level (neighbourhood, block, or point). Due to the spatio-temporal advances in crime data, we expect a continued uptake of flexible Bayesian hierarchical modelling, a greater inclusion of spatial-temporal point pattern analysis, and shift toward prospective (forecast) modelling over small areas (e.g., blocks). PMID:26418016

Hierarchical distance-sampling models to estimate population size and habitat-specific abundance of an island endemic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sillett, Scott T.; Chandler, Richard B.; Royle, J. Andrew; Kéry, Marc; Morrison, Scott A.

2012-01-01

Population size and habitat-specific abundance estimates are essential for conservation management. A major impediment to obtaining such estimates is that few statistical models are able to simultaneously account for both spatial variation in abundance and heterogeneity in detection probability, and still be amenable to large-scale applications. The hierarchical distance-sampling model of J. A. Royle, D. K. Dawson, and S. Bates provides a practical solution. Here, we extend this model to estimate habitat-specific abundance and rangewide population size of a bird species of management concern, the Island Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma insularis), which occurs solely on Santa Cruz Island, California, USA. We surveyed 307 randomly selected, 300 m diameter, point locations throughout the 250-km2 island during October 2008 and April 2009. Population size was estimated to be 2267 (95% CI 1613-3007) and 1705 (1212-2369) during the fall and spring respectively, considerably lower than a previously published but statistically problematic estimate of 12 500. This large discrepancy emphasizes the importance of proper survey design and analysis for obtaining reliable information for management decisions. Jays were most abundant in low-elevation chaparral habitat; the detection function depended primarily on the percent cover of chaparral and forest within count circles. Vegetation change on the island has been dramatic in recent decades, due to release from herbivory following the eradication of feral sheep (Ovis aries) from the majority of the island in the mid-1980s. We applied best-fit fall and spring models of habitat-specific jay abundance to a vegetation map from 1985, and estimated the population size of A. insularis was 1400-1500 at that time. The 20-30% increase in the jay population suggests that the species has benefited from the recovery of native vegetation since sheep removal. Nevertheless, this jay's tiny range and small population size make it vulnerable to natural disasters and to habitat alteration related to climate change. Our results demonstrate that hierarchical distance-sampling models hold promise for estimating population size and spatial density variation at large scales. Our statistical methods have been incorporated into the R package unmarked to facilitate their use by animal ecologists, and we provide annotated code in the Supplement.

Comparing the performance of flat and hierarchical Habitat/Land-Cover classification models in a NATURA 2000 site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavish, Yoni; O'Connell, Jerome; Marsh, Charles J.; Tarantino, Cristina; Blonda, Palma; Tomaselli, Valeria; Kunin, William E.

2018-02-01

The increasing need for high quality Habitat/Land-Cover (H/LC) maps has triggered considerable research into novel machine-learning based classification models. In many cases, H/LC classes follow pre-defined hierarchical classification schemes (e.g., CORINE), in which fine H/LC categories are thematically nested within more general categories. However, none of the existing machine-learning algorithms account for this pre-defined hierarchical structure. Here we introduce a novel Random Forest (RF) based application of hierarchical classification, which fits a separate local classification model in every branching point of the thematic tree, and then integrates all the different local models to a single global prediction. We applied the hierarchal RF approach in a NATURA 2000 site in Italy, using two land-cover (CORINE, FAO-LCCS) and one habitat classification scheme (EUNIS) that differ from one another in the shape of the class hierarchy. For all 3 classification schemes, both the hierarchical model and a flat model alternative provided accurate predictions, with kappa values mostly above 0.9 (despite using only 2.2-3.2% of the study area as training cells). The flat approach slightly outperformed the hierarchical models when the hierarchy was relatively simple, while the hierarchical model worked better under more complex thematic hierarchies. Most misclassifications came from habitat pairs that are thematically distant yet spectrally similar. In 2 out of 3 classification schemes, the additional constraints of the hierarchical model resulted with fewer such serious misclassifications relative to the flat model. The hierarchical model also provided valuable information on variable importance which can shed light into "black-box" based machine learning algorithms like RF. We suggest various ways by which hierarchical classification models can increase the accuracy and interpretability of H/LC classification maps.

Spatial, seasonal and climatic predictive models of Rift Valley fever disease across Africa.

PubMed

Redding, David W; Tiedt, Sonia; Lo Iacono, Gianni; Bett, Bernard; Jones, Kate E

2017-07-19

Understanding the emergence and subsequent spread of human infectious diseases is a critical global challenge, especially for high-impact zoonotic and vector-borne diseases. Global climate and land-use change are likely to alter host and vector distributions, but understanding the impact of these changes on the burden of infectious diseases is difficult. Here, we use a Bayesian spatial model to investigate environmental drivers of one of the most important diseases in Africa, Rift Valley fever (RVF). The model uses a hierarchical approach to determine how environmental drivers vary both spatially and seasonally, and incorporates the effects of key climatic oscillations, to produce a continental risk map of RVF in livestock (as a proxy for human RVF risk). We find RVF risk has a distinct seasonal spatial pattern influenced by climatic variation, with the majority of cases occurring in South Africa and Kenya in the first half of an El Niño year. Irrigation, rainfall and human population density were the main drivers of RVF cases, independent of seasonal, climatic or spatial variation. By accounting more subtly for the patterns in RVF data, we better determine the importance of underlying environmental drivers, and also make space- and time-sensitive predictions to better direct future surveillance resources.This article is part of the themed issue 'One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being'. © 2017 The Authors.

Spatial, seasonal and climatic predictive models of Rift Valley fever disease across Africa

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Understanding the emergence and subsequent spread of human infectious diseases is a critical global challenge, especially for high-impact zoonotic and vector-borne diseases. Global climate and land-use change are likely to alter host and vector distributions, but understanding the impact of these changes on the burden of infectious diseases is difficult. Here, we use a Bayesian spatial model to investigate environmental drivers of one of the most important diseases in Africa, Rift Valley fever (RVF). The model uses a hierarchical approach to determine how environmental drivers vary both spatially and seasonally, and incorporates the effects of key climatic oscillations, to produce a continental risk map of RVF in livestock (as a proxy for human RVF risk). We find RVF risk has a distinct seasonal spatial pattern influenced by climatic variation, with the majority of cases occurring in South Africa and Kenya in the first half of an El Niño year. Irrigation, rainfall and human population density were the main drivers of RVF cases, independent of seasonal, climatic or spatial variation. By accounting more subtly for the patterns in RVF data, we better determine the importance of underlying environmental drivers, and also make space- and time-sensitive predictions to better direct future surveillance resources. This article is part of the themed issue ‘One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being’. PMID:28584173

Spiking Neurons in a Hierarchical Self-Organizing Map Model Can Learn to Develop Spatial and Temporal Properties of Entorhinal Grid Cells and Hippocampal Place Cells

PubMed Central

Pilly, Praveen K.; Grossberg, Stephen

2013-01-01

Medial entorhinal grid cells and hippocampal place cells provide neural correlates of spatial representation in the brain. A place cell typically fires whenever an animal is present in one or more spatial regions, or places, of an environment. A grid cell typically fires in multiple spatial regions that form a regular hexagonal grid structure extending throughout the environment. Different grid and place cells prefer spatially offset regions, with their firing fields increasing in size along the dorsoventral axes of the medial entorhinal cortex and hippocampus. The spacing between neighboring fields for a grid cell also increases along the dorsoventral axis. This article presents a neural model whose spiking neurons operate in a hierarchy of self-organizing maps, each obeying the same laws. This spiking GridPlaceMap model simulates how grid cells and place cells may develop. It responds to realistic rat navigational trajectories by learning grid cells with hexagonal grid firing fields of multiple spatial scales and place cells with one or more firing fields that match neurophysiological data about these cells and their development in juvenile rats. The place cells represent much larger spaces than the grid cells, which enable them to support navigational behaviors. Both self-organizing maps amplify and learn to categorize the most frequent and energetic co-occurrences of their inputs. The current results build upon a previous rate-based model of grid and place cell learning, and thus illustrate a general method for converting rate-based adaptive neural models, without the loss of any of their analog properties, into models whose cells obey spiking dynamics. New properties of the spiking GridPlaceMap model include the appearance of theta band modulation. The spiking model also opens a path for implementation in brain-emulating nanochips comprised of networks of noisy spiking neurons with multiple-level adaptive weights for controlling autonomous adaptive robots capable of spatial navigation. PMID:23577130

Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer incidence risk in Georgia, USA: 2000-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Ping; Mu, Lan; Madden, Marguerite; Vena, John E.

2014-10-01

Lung cancer is the second most commonly diagnosed cancer in both men and women in Georgia, USA. However, the spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer risk in Georgia have not been fully studied. Hierarchical Bayesian models are used here to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer incidence risk by race and gender in Georgia for the period of 2000-2007. With the census tract level as the spatial scale and the 2-year period aggregation as the temporal scale, we compare a total of seven Bayesian spatio-temporal models including two under a separate modeling framework and five under a joint modeling framework. One joint model outperforms others based on the deviance information criterion. Results show that the northwest region of Georgia has consistently high lung cancer incidence risk for all population groups during the study period. In addition, there are inverse relationships between the socioeconomic status and the lung cancer incidence risk among all Georgian population groups, and the relationships in males are stronger than those in females. By mapping more reliable variations in lung cancer incidence risk at a relatively fine spatio-temporal scale for different Georgian population groups, our study aims to better support healthcare performance assessment, etiological hypothesis generation, and health policy making.

CROSS-SCALE CORRELATIONS AND THE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF AVIAN HABITAT SELECTION STUDIES

EPA Science Inventory

It has long been suggested that birds select habitat hierarchically, progressing from coarser to finer spatial scales. This hypothesis, in conjunction with the realization that many organisms likely respond to environmental patterns at multiple spatial scales, has led to a large ...

A Marker-Based Approach for the Automated Selection of a Single Segmentation from a Hierarchical Set of Image Segmentations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tarabalka, Y.; Tilton, J. C.; Benediktsson, J. A.; Chanussot, J.

2012-01-01

The Hierarchical SEGmentation (HSEG) algorithm, which combines region object finding with region object clustering, has given good performances for multi- and hyperspectral image analysis. This technique produces at its output a hierarchical set of image segmentations. The automated selection of a single segmentation level is often necessary. We propose and investigate the use of automatically selected markers for this purpose. In this paper, a novel Marker-based HSEG (M-HSEG) method for spectral-spatial classification of hyperspectral images is proposed. Two classification-based approaches for automatic marker selection are adapted and compared for this purpose. Then, a novel constrained marker-based HSEG algorithm is applied, resulting in a spectral-spatial classification map. Three different implementations of the M-HSEG method are proposed and their performances in terms of classification accuracies are compared. The experimental results, presented for three hyperspectral airborne images, demonstrate that the proposed approach yields accurate segmentation and classification maps, and thus is attractive for remote sensing image analysis.

Moving across scales: Challenges and opportunities in upscaling carbon fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naithani, K. J.

2016-12-01

Light use efficiency (LUE) type models are commonly used to upscale terrestrial C fluxes and estimate regional and global C budgets. Model parameters are often estimated for each land cover type (LCT) using flux observations from one or more eddy covariance towers, and then spatially extrapolated by integrating land cover, meteorological, and remotely sensed data. Decisions regarding the type of input data (spatial resolution of land cover data, spatial and temporal length of flux data), representation of landscape structure (land use vs. disturbance regime), and the type of modeling framework (common risk vs. hierarchical) all influence the estimates CO2 fluxes and the associated uncertainties, but are rarely considered together. This work presents a synthesis of past and present efforts for upscaling CO2 fluxes and associated uncertainties in the ChEAS (Chequamegon Ecosystem Atmosphere Study) region in northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This work highlights two key future research needs. First, the characterization of uncertainties due to all of the abovementioned factors reflects only a (hopefully relevant) subset the overall uncertainties. Second, interactions among these factors are likely critical, but are poorly represented by the tower network at landscape scales. Yet, results indicate significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity of uncertainty in CO2 fluxes which can inform carbon management efforts and prioritize data needs.

Bayesian Variable Selection for Hierarchical Gene-Environment and Gene-Gene Interactions

PubMed Central

Liu, Changlu; Ma, Jianzhong; Amos, Christopher I.

2014-01-01

We propose a Bayesian hierarchical mixture model framework that allows us to investigate the genetic and environmental effects, gene by gene interactions and gene by environment interactions in the same model. Our approach incorporates the natural hierarchical structure between the main effects and interaction effects into a mixture model, such that our methods tend to remove the irrelevant interaction effects more effectively, resulting in more robust and parsimonious models. We consider both strong and weak hierarchical models. For a strong hierarchical model, both of the main effects between interacting factors must be present for the interactions to be considered in the model development, while for a weak hierarchical model, only one of the two main effects is required to be present for the interaction to be evaluated. Our simulation results show that the proposed strong and weak hierarchical mixture models work well in controlling false positive rates and provide a powerful approach for identifying the predisposing effects and interactions in gene-environment interaction studies, in comparison with the naive model that does not impose this hierarchical constraint in most of the scenarios simulated. We illustrated our approach using data for lung cancer and cutaneous melanoma. PMID:25154630

Antidepressant sales and regional variations of suicide mortality in Germany.

PubMed

Blüml, Victor; Helbich, Marco; Mayr, Michael; Turnwald, Roland; Vyssoki, Benjamin; Lewitzka, Ute; Hartung, Sebastian; Plener, Paul L; Fegert, Jörg M; Kapusta, Nestor D

2017-04-01

Suicides account for over one million deaths per year worldwide with depression among the most important risk factors. Epidemiological research into the relationship between antidepressant utilization and suicide mortality has shown heterogeneous and contradictory results. Different methodological approaches and limitations could at least partially explain varying results. This is the first study assessing the association of suicide mortality and antidepressant sales across Germany using complex statistical approaches in order to control for possible confounding factors including spatial dependency of data. German suicide counts were analyzed on a district level (n = 402) utilizing ecological Poisson regressions within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Due to significant spatial effects between adjacent districts spatial models were calculated in addition to a baseline non-spatial model. Models were adjusted for several confounders including socioeconomic variables, quality of psychosocial care, and depression prevalence. Separate analyses were performed for Eastern and Western Germany and for different classes of antidepressants (SSRIs and TCAs). Overall antidepressant sales were significantly negatively associated with suicide mortality in the non-spatial baseline model, while after adjusting for spatially structured and unstructured effects the association turned out to be insignificant. In sub-analyses, analogue results were found for SSRIs and TCAs separately. Suicide risk shows a distinct heterogeneous pattern with a pronounced relative risk in Southeast Germany. In conclusion, the results reflect the heterogeneous findings of previous studies on the association between suicide mortality and antidepressant sales and point to the complexity of this hypothesized link. Furthermore, the findings support tailored suicide preventive efforts within high risk areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hierarchical laser-induced periodic surface structures induced by femtosecond laser on the surface of a ZnO film

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shaojun; Jiang, Lan; Han, Weina; Hu, Jie; Li, Xiaowei; Wang, Qingsong; Lu, Yongfeng

2018-05-01

We realize hierarchical laser-induced periodic surface structures (LIPSSs) on the surface of a ZnO thin film in a single step by the irradiation of femtosecond laser pulses. The structures are characterized by the high-spatial-frequency LIPSSs (HSFLs) formed on the abnormal bumped low-spatial-frequency LIPSSs (LSFLs). Localized electric-field enhancement based on the initially formed LSFLs is proposed as a potential mechanism for the formation of HSFLs. The simulation results through the finite-difference time-domain method show good agreement with experiments. Furthermore, the crucial role of the LSFLs in the formation of HSFLs is validated by an elaborate experimental design with preprocessed HSFLs.

Organization of the Macaque Extrastriate Visual Cortex Re-Examined Using the Principle of Spatial Continuity of Function

PubMed Central

Aflalo, T. N.

2011-01-01

How is the macaque monkey extrastriate cortex organized? Is vision divisible into separate tasks, such as object recognition and spatial processing, each emphasized in a different anatomical stream? If so, how many streams exist? What are the hierarchical relationships among areas? The present study approached the organization of the extrastriate cortex in a novel manner. A principled relationship exists between cortical function and cortical topography. Similar functions tend to be located near each other, within the constraints of mapping a highly dimensional space of functions onto the two-dimensional space of the cortex. We used this principle to re-examine the functional organization of the extrastriate cortex given current knowledge about its topographic organization. The goal of the study was to obtain a model of the functional relationships among the visual areas, including the number of functional streams into which they are grouped, the pattern of informational overlap among the streams, and the hierarchical relationships among areas. To test each functional description, we mapped it to a model cortex according to the principle of optimal continuity and assessed whether it accurately reconstructed a version of the extrastriate topography. Of the models tested, the one that best reconstructed the topography included four functional streams rather than two, six levels of hierarchy per stream, and a specific pattern of informational overlap among streams and areas. A specific mixture of functions was predicted for each visual area. This description matched findings in the physiological literature, and provided predictions of functional relationships that have yet to be tested physiologically. PMID:21068269

The Advantages of Hierarchical Linear Modeling. ERIC/AE Digest.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Osborne, Jason W.

This digest introduces hierarchical data structure, describes how hierarchical models work, and presents three approaches to analyzing hierarchical data. Hierarchical, or nested data, present several problems for analysis. People or creatures that exist within hierarchies tend to be more similar to each other than people randomly sampled from the…

A new map of standardized terrestrial ecosystems of Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sayre, Roger G.; Comer, Patrick; Hak, Jon; Josse, Carmen; Bow, Jacquie; Warner, Harumi; Larwanou, Mahamane; Kelbessa, Ensermu; Bekele, Tamrat; Kehl, Harald; Amena, Ruba; Andriamasimanana, Rado; Ba, Taibou; Benson, Laurence; Boucher, Timothy; Brown, Matthew; Cress, Jill J.; Dassering, Oueddo; Friesen, Beverly A.; Gachathi, Francis; Houcine, Sebei; Keita, Mahamadou; Khamala, Erick; Marangu, Dan; Mokua, Fredrick; Morou, Boube; Mucina, Ladislav; Mugisha, Samuel; Mwavu, Edward; Rutherford, Michael; Sanou, Patrice; Syampungani, Stephen; Tomor, Bojoi; Vall, Abdallahi Ould Mohamed; Vande Weghe, Jean Pierre; Wangui, Eunice; Waruingi, Lucy

2013-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystems and vegetation of Africa were classified and mapped as part of a larger effort and global protocol (GEOSS – the Global Earth Observation System of Systems), which includes an activity to map terrestrial ecosystems of the earth in a standardized, robust, and practical manner, and at the finest possible spatial resolution. To model the potential distribution of ecosystems, new continental datasets for several key physical environment datalayers (including coastline, landforms, surficial lithology, and bioclimates) were developed at spatial and classification resolutions finer than existing similar datalayers. A hierarchical vegetation classification was developed by African ecosystem scientists and vegetation geographers, who also provided sample locations of the newly classified vegetation units. The vegetation types and ecosystems were then mapped across the continent using a classification and regression tree (CART) inductive model, which predicted the potential distribution of vegetation types from a suite of biophysical environmental attributes including bioclimate region, biogeographic region, surficial lithology, landform, elevation and land cover. Multi-scale ecosystems were classified and mapped in an increasingly detailed hierarchical framework using vegetation-based concepts of class, subclass, formation, division, and macrogroup levels. The finest vegetation units (macrogroups) classified and mapped in this effort are defined using diagnostic plant species and diagnostic growth forms that reflect biogeographic differences in composition and sub-continental to regional differences in mesoclimate, geology, substrates, hydrology, and disturbance regimes (FGDC, 2008). The macrogroups are regarded as meso-scale (100s to 10,000s of hectares) ecosystems. A total of 126 macrogroup types were mapped, each with multiple, repeating occurrences on the landscape. The modeling effort was implemented at a base spatial resolution of 90 m. In addition to creating several rich, new continent-wide biophysical datalayers describing African vegetation and ecosystems, our intention was to explore feasible approaches to rapidly moving this type of standardized, continent-wide, ecosystem classification and mapping effort forward.

Comparison of deep neural networks to spatio-temporal cortical dynamics of human visual object recognition reveals hierarchical correspondence

PubMed Central

Cichy, Radoslaw Martin; Khosla, Aditya; Pantazis, Dimitrios; Torralba, Antonio; Oliva, Aude

2016-01-01

The complex multi-stage architecture of cortical visual pathways provides the neural basis for efficient visual object recognition in humans. However, the stage-wise computations therein remain poorly understood. Here, we compared temporal (magnetoencephalography) and spatial (functional MRI) visual brain representations with representations in an artificial deep neural network (DNN) tuned to the statistics of real-world visual recognition. We showed that the DNN captured the stages of human visual processing in both time and space from early visual areas towards the dorsal and ventral streams. Further investigation of crucial DNN parameters revealed that while model architecture was important, training on real-world categorization was necessary to enforce spatio-temporal hierarchical relationships with the brain. Together our results provide an algorithmically informed view on the spatio-temporal dynamics of visual object recognition in the human visual brain. PMID:27282108

Comparison of deep neural networks to spatio-temporal cortical dynamics of human visual object recognition reveals hierarchical correspondence.

PubMed

Cichy, Radoslaw Martin; Khosla, Aditya; Pantazis, Dimitrios; Torralba, Antonio; Oliva, Aude

2016-06-10

The complex multi-stage architecture of cortical visual pathways provides the neural basis for efficient visual object recognition in humans. However, the stage-wise computations therein remain poorly understood. Here, we compared temporal (magnetoencephalography) and spatial (functional MRI) visual brain representations with representations in an artificial deep neural network (DNN) tuned to the statistics of real-world visual recognition. We showed that the DNN captured the stages of human visual processing in both time and space from early visual areas towards the dorsal and ventral streams. Further investigation of crucial DNN parameters revealed that while model architecture was important, training on real-world categorization was necessary to enforce spatio-temporal hierarchical relationships with the brain. Together our results provide an algorithmically informed view on the spatio-temporal dynamics of visual object recognition in the human visual brain.

Modelling the Ecological Comorbidity of Acute Respiratory Infection, Diarrhoea and Stunting among Children Under the Age of 5 Years in Somalia.

PubMed

Kinyoki, Damaris K; Manda, Samuel O; Moloney, Grainne M; Odundo, Elijah O; Berkley, James A; Noor, Abdisalan M; Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin

2017-04-01

The aim of this study was to assess spatial co-occurrence of acute respiratory infections (ARI), diarrhoea and stunting among children of the age between 6 and 59 months in Somalia. Data were obtained from routine biannual nutrition surveys conducted by the Food and Agriculture Organization 2007-2010. A Bayesian hierarchical geostatistical shared component model was fitted to the residual spatial components of the three health conditions. Risk maps of the common spatial effects at 1×1 km resolution were derived. The empirical correlations of the enumeration area proportion were 0.37, 0.63 and 0.66 for ARI and stunting, diarrhoea and stunting and ARI and diarrhoea, respectively. Spatially, the posterior residual effects ranged 0.03-20.98, 0.16-6.37 and 0.08-9.66 for shared component between ARI and stunting, diarrhoea and stunting and ARI and diarrhoea, respectively. The analysis showed clearly that the spatial shared component between ARI, diarrhoea and stunting was higher in the southern part of the country. Interventions aimed at controlling and mitigating the adverse effects of these three childhood health conditions should focus on their common putative risk factors, particularly in the South in Somalia.

Generic patterns in the evolution of urban water networks: Evidence from a large Asian city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krueger, Elisabeth; Klinkhamer, Christopher; Urich, Christian; Zhan, Xianyuan; Rao, P. Suresh C.

2017-03-01

We examine high-resolution urban infrastructure data using every pipe for the water distribution network (WDN) and sanitary sewer network (SSN) in a large Asian city (≈4 million residents) to explore the structure as well as the spatial and temporal evolution of these infrastructure networks. Network data were spatially disaggregated into multiple subnets to examine intracity topological differences for functional zones of the WDN and SSN, and time-stamped SSN data were examined to understand network evolution over several decades as the city expanded. Graphs were generated using a dual-mapping technique (Hierarchical Intersection Continuity Negotiation), which emphasizes the functional attributes of these networks. Network graphs for WDNs and SSNs are characterized by several network topological metrics, and a double Pareto (power-law) model approximates the node-degree distributions of both water infrastructure networks (WDN and SSN), across spatial and hierarchical scales relevant to urban settings, and throughout their temporal evolution over several decades. These results indicate that generic mechanisms govern the networks' evolution, similar to those of scale-free networks found in nature. Deviations from the general topological patterns are indicative of (1) incomplete establishment of network hierarchies and functional network evolution, (2) capacity for growth (expansion) or densification (e.g., in-fill), and (3) likely network vulnerabilities. We discuss the implications of our findings for the (re-)design of urban infrastructure networks to enhance their resilience to external and internal threats.

Accounting for imperfect detection and survey bias in statistical analysis of presence-only data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert M.

2014-01-01

Using mathematical proof and simulation-based comparisons, I demonstrate that biases induced by errors in detection or biased selection of survey locations can be reduced or eliminated by using the hierarchical model to analyse presence-only data in conjunction with counts observed in planned surveys. I show that a relatively small number of high-quality data (from planned surveys) can be used to leverage the information in presence-only observations, which usually have broad spatial coverage but may not be informative of both occurrence and detectability of individuals. Because a variety of sampling protocols can be used in planned surveys, this approach to the analysis of presence-only data is widely applicable. In addition, since the point-process model is formulated at the level of an individual, it can be extended to account for biological interactions between individuals and temporal changes in their spatial distributions.

Understanding neighbourhoods, communities and environments: new approaches for social work research.

PubMed

Holland, Sally; Burgess, Stephen; Grogan-Kaylor, Andy; Delva, Jorge

2010-06-01

This article discusses some new ways in which social work research can explore the interaction between neighbourhoods and child and adult wellbeing. The authors note that social work practices are often criticised for taking an individualistic approach and paying too little attention to the service user's environment. The article uses examples of research projects from Chile, the United States of America and Wales, to discuss the use of spatially oriented research methods for understanding neighbourhood factors. Quantitative, qualitative and mixed methods approaches that are particularly appropriate for investigating social work relevant topics are discussed in turn, including quantitative and qualitative uses for geographical information systems (GIS), hierarchical linear modelling (HLM) for analysing spatially clustered data and qualitative mobile interviews. The article continues with a discussion of the strengths and limitations of using spatially orientated research designs in social work research settings and concludes optimistically with suggestions for future directions in this area.

Spatial partitioning of environmental correlates of avian biodiversity in the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Connor, R.J.; Jones, M.T.; White, D.; Hunsaker, C.; Loveland, Tom; Jones, Bruce; Preston, E.

1996-01-01

Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was used to create hierarchically organized models of the distribution of bird species richness across the conterminous United States. Species richness data were taken from the Breeding Bird Survey and were related to climatic and land use data. We used a systematic spatial grid of approximately 12,500 hexagons, each approximately 640 square kilometres in area. Within each hexagon land use was characterized by the Loveland et al. land cover classification based on Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data from NOAA polar orbiting meteorological satellites. These data were aggregated to yield fourteen land classes equivalent to an Anderson level II coverage; urban areas were added from the Digital Chart of the World. Each hexagon was characterized by climate data and landscape pattern metrics calculated from the land cover. A CART model then related the variation in species richness across the 1162 hexagons for which bird species richness data were available to the independent variables, yielding an R2-type goodness of fit metric of 47.5% deviance explained. The resulting model recognized eleven groups of hexagons, with species richness within each group determined by unique sequences of hierarchically constrained independent variables. Within the hierarchy, climate data accounted for more variability in the bird data, followed by land cover proportion, and then pattern metrics. The model was then used to predict species richness in all 12,500 hexagons of the conterminous United States yielding a map of the distribution of these eleven classes of bird species richness as determined by the environmental correlates. The potential for using this technique to interface biogeographic theory with the hierarchy theory of ecology is discussed. ?? 1996 Blackwell Science Ltd.

Repeated measures from FIA data facilitates analysis across spatial scales of tree growth responses to nitrogen deposition from individual trees to whole ecoregions

Treesearch

Charles H. (Hobie) Perry; Kevin J. Horn; R. Quinn Thomas; Linda H. Pardo; Erica A.H. Smithwick; Doug Baldwin; Gregory B. Lawrence; Scott W. Bailey; Sabine Braun; Christopher M. Clark; Mark Fenn; Annika Nordin; Jennifer N. Phelan; Paul G. Schaberg; Sam St. Clair; Richard Warby; Shaun Watmough; Steven S. Perakis

2015-01-01

The abundance of temporally and spatially consistent Forest Inventory and Analysis data facilitates hierarchical/multilevel analysis to investigate factors affecting tree growth, scaling from plot-level to continental scales. Herein we use FIA tree and soil inventories in conjunction with various spatial climate and soils data to estimate species-specific responses of...

A Village Study with Middle School Spatial Organisation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mitchell, El

1985-01-01

Demonstrates how elements of a built environment can be introduced to middle school students. Describes activities that address the concept of spatial organziation in a small scale urban environment, suggesting that hierarchical arrangements of settlements, the central place theory, and land use zoning can be taught at the elementary level. (ML)

A spatial classification and database for management, research, and policy making: The Great Lakes aquatic habitat framework

EPA Science Inventory

Managing the world’s largest and complex freshwater ecosystem, the Laurentian Great Lakes, requires a spatially hierarchical basin-wide database of ecological and socioeconomic information that are comparable across the region. To meet such a need, we developed a hierarchi...

Three-Dimensional Multiscale Modeling of Dendritic Spacing Selection During Al-Si Directional Solidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tourret, Damien; Clarke, Amy J.; Imhoff, Seth D.; Gibbs, Paul J.; Gibbs, John W.; Karma, Alain

2015-08-01

We present a three-dimensional extension of the multiscale dendritic needle network (DNN) model. This approach enables quantitative simulations of the unsteady dynamics of complex hierarchical networks in spatially extended dendritic arrays. We apply the model to directional solidification of Al-9.8 wt.%Si alloy and directly compare the model predictions with measurements from experiments with in situ x-ray imaging. We focus on the dynamical selection of primary spacings over a range of growth velocities, and the influence of sample geometry on the selection of spacings. Simulation results show good agreement with experiments. The computationally efficient DNN model opens new avenues for investigating the dynamics of large dendritic arrays at scales relevant to solidification experiments and processes.

Bayesian inference in camera trapping studies for a class of spatial capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Karanth, K. Ullas; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Kumar, N. Samba

2009-01-01

We develop a class of models for inference about abundance or density using spatial capture-recapture data from studies based on camera trapping and related methods. The model is a hierarchical model composed of two components: a point process model describing the distribution of individuals in space (or their home range centers) and a model describing the observation of individuals in traps. We suppose that trap- and individual-specific capture probabilities are a function of distance between individual home range centers and trap locations. We show that the models can be regarded as generalized linear mixed models, where the individual home range centers are random effects. We adopt a Bayesian framework for inference under these models using a formulation based on data augmentation. We apply the models to camera trapping data on tigers from the Nagarahole Reserve, India, collected over 48 nights in 2006. For this study, 120 camera locations were used, but cameras were only operational at 30 locations during any given sample occasion. Movement of traps is common in many camera-trapping studies and represents an important feature of the observation model that we address explicitly in our application.

Dynamic monitoring of the Poyang Lake wetland by integrating Landsat and MODIS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Bin; Chen, Lifan; Huang, Bo; Michishita, Ryo; Xu, Bing

2018-05-01

The spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion models (STARFM) have limited practical applications, because they often enforce the invalid assumption that land cover change does not occur between prior/posterior and target dates. To deal with this challenge, we proposed a spatiotemporal adaptive fusion model for NDVI products (STAFFN), to better blend highly resolved spatial and temporal information from multiple sensors. Compared with existing spatiotemporal fusion models, the proposed model integrates an initial prediction into a hierarchical selection strategy of similar pixels, and can capture landscape changes very well. Experiments using spatial details and temporal abundance comparison among MODIS, Landsat, and fusion results show that the predicted data can accurately capture temporal changes while preserving fine-spatial-resolution details. Model comparison also shows that STAFFNs produce consistently lower biases than STARFMs and the flexible spatiotemporal data fusion models (FSDAFs). A synthetic NDVI product (342 scenes in total) was produced with STAFFNs having a 16-day revisit frequency at 30-m spatial resolution from 2000 to 2014. With this product, we further provided a 15-year spatiotemporal change monitoring map of the Poyang Lake wetland. Results show that the water area in the dry season tended to lose 38.3 km2 yr-1 in coverage over the past 15 years, decreasing by 18.24% of the lake area between 2001 and 2014. The wetland vegetation group tended to increase in coverage, increasing by 10.08% of the lake area in the past 15 years. Our study indicates the STAFFN model can be reasonably applied in monitoring wetland dynamics, and can be easily adapted for the use with other ecosystems.

Recent global methane trends: an investigation using hierarchical Bayesian methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigby, M. L.; Stavert, A.; Ganesan, A.; Lunt, M. F.

2014-12-01

Following a decade with little growth, methane concentrations began to increase across the globe in 2007, and have continued to rise ever since. The reasons for this renewed growth are currently the subject of much debate. Here, we discuss the recent observed trends, and highlight some of the strengths and weaknesses in current "inverse" methods for quantifying fluxes using observations. In particular, we focus on the outstanding problems of accurately quantifying uncertainties in inverse frameworks. We examine to what extent the recent methane changes can be explained by the current generation of flux models and inventories. We examine the major modes of variability in wetland models along with the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR). Using the Model for Ozone and Related Tracers (MOZART), we determine whether the spatial and temporal atmospheric trends predicted using these emissions can be brought into consistency with in situ atmospheric observations. We use a novel hierarchical Bayesian methodology in which scaling factors applied to the principal components of the flux fields are estimated simultaneously with the uncertainties associated with the a priori fluxes and with model representations of the observations. Using this method, we examine the predictive power of methane flux models for explaining recent fluctuations.

Multiscale responses of soil stability and invasive plants to removal of non-native grazers from an arid conservation reserve

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beever, E.A.; Huso, M.; Pyke, D.A.

2006-01-01

Disturbances and ecosystem recovery from disturbance both involve numerous processes that operate on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Few studies have investigated how gradients of disturbance intensity and ecosystem responses are distributed across multiple spatial resolutions and also how this relationship changes through time during recovery. We investigated how cover of non-native species and soil-aggregate stability (a measure of vulnerability to erosion by water) in surface and subsurface soils varied spatially during grazing by burros and cattle and whether patterns in these variables changed after grazer removal from Mojave National Preserve, California, USA. We compared distance from water and number of ungulate defecations - metrics of longer-term and recent grazing intensity, respectively, - as predictors of our response variables. We used information-theoretic analyses to compare hierarchical linear models that accounted for important covariates and allowed for interannual variation in the disturbance-response relationship at local and landscape scales. Soil stability was greater under perennial vegetation than in bare interspaces, and surface soil stability decreased with increasing numbers of ungulate defecations. Stability of surface samples was more affected by time since removal of grazers than was stability of subsurface samples, and subsurface soil stability in bare spaces was not related to grazing intensity, time since removal, or any of our other predictors. In the high rainfall year (2003) after cattle had been removed for 1-2 years, cover of all non-native plants averaged nine times higher than in the low-rainfall year (2002). Given the heterogeneity in distribution of large-herbivore impacts that we observed at several resolutions, hierarchical analyses provided a more complete understanding of the spatial and temporal complexities of disturbance and recovery processes in arid ecosystems. ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Multi-scale responses of soil stability and invasive plants to removal of non-native grazers from an arid conservation reserve

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beever, Erik A.; Huso, Manuela M. P.; Pyke, David A.

2006-01-01

Disturbances and ecosystem recovery from disturbance both involve numerous processes that operate on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Few studies have investigated how gradients of disturbance intensity and ecosystem responses are distributed across multiple spatial resolutions and also how this relationship changes through time during recovery. We investigated how cover of non-native species and soil-aggregate stability (a measure of vulnerability to erosion by water) in surface and subsurface soils varied spatially during grazing by burros and cattle and whether patterns in these variables changed after grazer removal from Mojave National Preserve, California, USA. We compared distance from water and number of ungulate defecations — metrics of longer-term and recent grazing intensity, respectively, — as predictors of our response variables. We used information-theoretic analyses to compare hierarchical linear models that accounted for important covariates and allowed for interannual variation in the disturbance–response relationship at local and landscape scales. Soil stability was greater under perennial vegetation than in bare interspaces, and surface soil stability decreased with increasing numbers of ungulate defecations. Stability of surface samples was more affected by time since removal of grazers than was stability of subsurface samples, and subsurface soil stability in bare spaces was not related to grazing intensity, time since removal, or any of our other predictors. In the high rainfall year (2003) after cattle had been removed for 1–2 years, cover of all non-native plants averaged nine times higher than in the low-rainfall year (2002). Given the heterogeneity in distribution of large-herbivore impacts that we observed at several resolutions, hierarchical analyses provided a more complete understanding of the spatial and temporal complexities of disturbance and recovery processes in arid ecosystems.

Use of NARCCAP data to characterize regional climate uncertainty in the impact of global climate change on large river fish population: Missouri River sturgeon example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, C. J.; Wildhaber, M. L.; Wikle, C. K.; Moran, E. H.; Franz, K. J.; Dey, R.

2012-12-01

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding the effects of change on ecosystems requires accounting for the propagation of information and uncertainty across these scales. For example, to understand potential climate change effects on fish populations in riverine ecosystems, climate conditions predicted by course-resolution atmosphere-ocean global climate models must first be translated to the regional climate scale. In turn, this regional information is used to force watershed models, which are used to force river condition models, which impact the population response. A critical challenge in such a multiscale modeling environment is to quantify sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and the individual organism. We use a hierarchical modeling approach for accommodating uncertainty in multiscale ecological impact studies. This framework allows for uncertainty due to system models, model parameter settings, and stochastic parameterizations. This approach is a hybrid between physical (deterministic) downscaling and statistical downscaling, recognizing that there is uncertainty in both. We use NARCCAP data to determine confidence the capability of climate models to simulate relevant processes and to quantify regional climate variability within the context of the hierarchical model of uncertainty quantification. By confidence, we mean the ability of the regional climate model to replicate observed mechanisms. We use the NCEP-driven simulations for this analysis. This provides a base from which regional change can be categorized as either a modification of previously observed mechanisms or emergence of new processes. The management implications for these categories of change are significantly different in that procedures to address impacts from existing processes may already be known and need adjustment; whereas, an emergent processes may require new management strategies. The results from hierarchical analysis of uncertainty are used to study the relative change in weights of the endangered Missouri River pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) under a 21st century climate scenario.

Neural networks for data compression and invariant image recognition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gardner, Sheldon

1989-01-01

An approach to invariant image recognition (I2R), based upon a model of biological vision in the mammalian visual system (MVS), is described. The complete I2R model incorporates several biologically inspired features: exponential mapping of retinal images, Gabor spatial filtering, and a neural network associative memory. In the I2R model, exponentially mapped retinal images are filtered by a hierarchical set of Gabor spatial filters (GSF) which provide compression of the information contained within a pixel-based image. A neural network associative memory (AM) is used to process the GSF coded images. We describe a 1-D shape function method for coding of scale and rotationally invariant shape information. This method reduces image shape information to a periodic waveform suitable for coding as an input vector to a neural network AM. The shape function method is suitable for near term applications on conventional computing architectures equipped with VLSI FFT chips to provide a rapid image search capability.

Octree based automatic meshing from CSG models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perucchio, Renato

1987-01-01

Finite element meshes derived automatically from solid models through recursive spatial subdivision schemes (octrees) can be made to inherit the hierarchical structure and the spatial addressability intrinsic to the underlying grid. These two properties, together with the geometric regularity that can also be built into the mesh, make octree based meshes ideally suited for efficient analysis and self-adaptive remeshing and reanalysis. The element decomposition of the octal cells that intersect the boundary of the domain is emphasized. The problem, central to octree based meshing, is solved by combining template mapping and element extraction into a procedure that utilizes both constructive solid geometry and boundary respresentation techniques. Boundary cells that are not intersected by the edge of the domain boundary are easily mapped to predefined element topology. Cells containing edges (and vertices) are first transformed into a planar polyhedron and then triangulated via element extractors. The modeling environments required for the derivation of planar polyhedra and for element extraction are analyzed.

Climate-driven spatial dynamics of plague among prairie dog colonies.

PubMed

Snäll, T; O'Hara, R B; Ray, C; Collinge, S K

2008-02-01

We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for the joint spatial dynamics of a host-parasite system. The model was fitted to long-term data on regional plague dynamics and metapopulation dynamics of the black-tailed prairie dog, a declining keystone species of North American prairies. The rate of plague transmission between colonies increases with increasing precipitation, while the rate of infection from unknown sources decreases in response to hot weather. The mean annual dispersal distance of plague is about 10 km, and topographic relief reduces the transmission rate. Larger colonies are more likely to become infected, but colony area does not affect the infectiousness of colonies. The results suggest that prairie dog movements do not drive the spread of plague through the landscape. Instead, prairie dogs are useful sentinels of plague epizootics. Simulations suggest that this model can be used for predicting long-term colony and plague dynamics as well as for identifying which colonies are most likely to become infected in a specific year.

Bayesian Hierarchical Classes Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leenen, Iwin; Van Mechelen, Iven; Gelman, Andrew; De Knop, Stijn

2008-01-01

Hierarchical classes models are models for "N"-way "N"-mode data that represent the association among the "N" modes and simultaneously yield, for each mode, a hierarchical classification of its elements. In this paper we present a stochastic extension of the hierarchical classes model for two-way two-mode binary data. In line with the original…

Fast automated segmentation of multiple objects via spatially weighted shape learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandra, Shekhar S.; Dowling, Jason A.; Greer, Peter B.; Martin, Jarad; Wratten, Chris; Pichler, Peter; Fripp, Jurgen; Crozier, Stuart

2016-11-01

Active shape models (ASMs) have proved successful in automatic segmentation by using shape and appearance priors in a number of areas such as prostate segmentation, where accurate contouring is important in treatment planning for prostate cancer. The ASM approach however, is heavily reliant on a good initialisation for achieving high segmentation quality. This initialisation often requires algorithms with high computational complexity, such as three dimensional (3D) image registration. In this work, we present a fast, self-initialised ASM approach that simultaneously fits multiple objects hierarchically controlled by spatially weighted shape learning. Prominent objects are targeted initially and spatial weights are progressively adjusted so that the next (more difficult, less visible) object is simultaneously initialised using a series of weighted shape models. The scheme was validated and compared to a multi-atlas approach on 3D magnetic resonance (MR) images of 38 cancer patients and had the same (mean, median, inter-rater) Dice’s similarity coefficients of (0.79, 0.81, 0.85), while having no registration error and a computational time of 12-15 min, nearly an order of magnitude faster than the multi-atlas approach.

Fast automated segmentation of multiple objects via spatially weighted shape learning.

PubMed

Chandra, Shekhar S; Dowling, Jason A; Greer, Peter B; Martin, Jarad; Wratten, Chris; Pichler, Peter; Fripp, Jurgen; Crozier, Stuart

2016-11-21

Active shape models (ASMs) have proved successful in automatic segmentation by using shape and appearance priors in a number of areas such as prostate segmentation, where accurate contouring is important in treatment planning for prostate cancer. The ASM approach however, is heavily reliant on a good initialisation for achieving high segmentation quality. This initialisation often requires algorithms with high computational complexity, such as three dimensional (3D) image registration. In this work, we present a fast, self-initialised ASM approach that simultaneously fits multiple objects hierarchically controlled by spatially weighted shape learning. Prominent objects are targeted initially and spatial weights are progressively adjusted so that the next (more difficult, less visible) object is simultaneously initialised using a series of weighted shape models. The scheme was validated and compared to a multi-atlas approach on 3D magnetic resonance (MR) images of 38 cancer patients and had the same (mean, median, inter-rater) Dice's similarity coefficients of (0.79, 0.81, 0.85), while having no registration error and a computational time of 12-15 min, nearly an order of magnitude faster than the multi-atlas approach.

The folding landscape of the epigenome

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olarte-Plata, Juan D.; Haddad, Noelle; Vaillant, Cédric; Jost, Daniel

2016-04-01

The role of the spatial organization of chromatin in gene regulation is a long-standing but still open question. Experimentally it has been shown that the genome is segmented into epigenomic chromatin domains that are organized into hierarchical sub-nuclear spatial compartments. However, whether this non-random spatial organization only reflects or indeed contributes—and how—to the regulation of genome function remains to be elucidated. To address this question, we recently proposed a quantitative description of the folding properties of the fly genome as a function of its epigenomic landscape using a polymer model with epigenomic-driven attractions. We propose in this article, to characterize more deeply the physical properties of the 3D epigenome folding. Using an efficient lattice version of the original block copolymer model, we study the structural and dynamical properties of chromatin and show that the size of epigenomic domains and asymmetries in sizes and in interaction strengths play a critical role in the chromatin organization. Finally, we discuss the biological implications of our findings. In particular, our predictions are quantitatively compatible with experimental data and suggest a different mean of self-interaction in euchromatin versus heterochromatin domains.

The HTM Spatial Pooler-A Neocortical Algorithm for Online Sparse Distributed Coding.

PubMed

Cui, Yuwei; Ahmad, Subutai; Hawkins, Jeff

2017-01-01

Hierarchical temporal memory (HTM) provides a theoretical framework that models several key computational principles of the neocortex. In this paper, we analyze an important component of HTM, the HTM spatial pooler (SP). The SP models how neurons learn feedforward connections and form efficient representations of the input. It converts arbitrary binary input patterns into sparse distributed representations (SDRs) using a combination of competitive Hebbian learning rules and homeostatic excitability control. We describe a number of key properties of the SP, including fast adaptation to changing input statistics, improved noise robustness through learning, efficient use of cells, and robustness to cell death. In order to quantify these properties we develop a set of metrics that can be directly computed from the SP outputs. We show how the properties are met using these metrics and targeted artificial simulations. We then demonstrate the value of the SP in a complete end-to-end real-world HTM system. We discuss the relationship with neuroscience and previous studies of sparse coding. The HTM spatial pooler represents a neurally inspired algorithm for learning sparse representations from noisy data streams in an online fashion.

Assessing the Dynamic Effects of Climate on Individual Tree Growth Across Time and Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itter, M.; Finley, A. O.; D'Amato, A. W.; Foster, J. R.; Bradford, J. B.

2015-12-01

The relationship between climate variability and an ecosystem process, such as forest growth, is frequently not fixed over time, but changes due to complex interactions between unobserved ecological factors and the process of interest. Climate data and forecasts are frequently spatially and temporally misaligned with ecological observations making inference regarding the effects of climate on ecosystem processes particularly challenging. Here we develop a Bayesian dynamic hierarchical model for annual tree growth increment that allows the effects of climate to evolve over time, applies climate data at a spatial-temporal scale consistent with observations, and controls for individual-level variability commonly encountered in ecological datasets. The model is applied to individual tree data from northern Minnesota using a modified Thornthwaite-type water balance model to transform PRISM temperature and precipitation estimates to physiologically relevant values of actual and potential evapotranspiration (AET, PET), and climatic water deficit. Model results indicate that mean tree growth is most sensitive to AET during the growing season and PET and minimum temperature in the spring prior to growth. The effects of these variables on tree growth, however, are not stationary with significant effects observed in only a subset of years during the 111-year study period. Importantly, significant effects of climate do not result from anomalous climate observations, but follow from large growth deviations unexplained by tree age and size, and time since forest disturbance. Results differ markedly from alternative models that assume the effects of climate are stationary over time or apply climate estimates at the individual scale. Forecasts of future tree growth as a function of climate follow directly from the dynamic hierarchical model allowing for assessment of forest change. Current work is focused on extending the model framework to include regional climate and ecosystem effects for application to a larger tree growth dataset spanning a latitudinal gradient within the US from Maine to Florida.

A hierarchical spatial model for well yield in complex aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montgomery, J.; O'sullivan, F.

2017-12-01

Efficiently siting and managing groundwater wells requires reliable estimates of the amount of water that can be produced, or the well yield. This can be challenging to predict in highly complex, heterogeneous fractured aquifers due to the uncertainty around local hydraulic properties. Promising statistical approaches have been advanced in recent years. For instance, kriging and multivariate regression analysis have been applied to well test data with limited but encouraging levels of prediction accuracy. Additionally, some analytical solutions to diffusion in homogeneous porous media have been used to infer "effective" properties consistent with observed flow rates or drawdown. However, this is an under-specified inverse problem with substantial and irreducible uncertainty. We describe a flexible machine learning approach capable of combining diverse datasets with constraining physical and geostatistical models for improved well yield prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification. Our approach can be implemented within a hierarchical Bayesian framework using Markov Chain Monte Carlo, which allows for additional sources of information to be incorporated in priors to further constrain and improve predictions and reduce the model order. We demonstrate the usefulness of this approach using data from over 7,000 wells in a fractured bedrock aquifer.

Impact of Uncertainty on the Porous Media Description in the Subsurface Transport Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darvini, G.; Salandin, P.

2008-12-01

In the modelling of flow and transport phenomena in naturally heterogeneous media, the spatial variability of hydraulic properties, typically the hydraulic conductivity, is generally described by use of a variogram of constant sill and spatial correlation. While some analyses reported in the literature discuss of spatial inhomogeneity related to a trend in the mean hydraulic conductivity, the effect in the flow and transport due to an inexact definition of spatial statistical properties of media as far as we know had never taken into account. The relevance of this topic is manifest, and it is related to the uncertainty in the definition of spatial moments of hydraulic log-conductivity from an (usually) little number of data, as well as to the modelling of flow and transport processes by the Monte Carlo technique, whose numerical fields have poor ergodic properties and are not strictly statistically homogeneous. In this work we investigate the effects related to mean log-conductivity (logK) field behaviours different from the constant one due to different sources of inhomogeneity as: i) a deterministic trend; ii) a deterministic sinusoidal pattern and iii) a random behaviour deriving from the hierarchical sedimentary architecture of porous formations and iv) conditioning procedure on available measurements of the hydraulic conductivity. These mean log-conductivity behaviours are superimposed to a correlated weakly fluctuating logK field. The time evolution of the spatial moments of the plume driven by a statistically inhomogeneous steady state random velocity field is analyzed in a 2-D finite domain by taking into account different sizes of injection area. The problem is approached by both a classical Monte Carlo procedure and SFEM (stochastic finite element method). By the latter the moments are achieved by space-time integration of the velocity field covariance structure derived according to the first- order Taylor series expansion. Two different goals are foreseen: 1) from the results it will be possible to distinguish the contribute in the plume dispersion of the uncertainty in the statistics of the medium hydraulic properties in all the cases considered, and 2) we will try to highlight the loss of performances that seems to affect the first-order approaches in the transport phenomena that take place in hierarchical architecture of porous formations.

Modeling place field activity with hierarchical slow feature analysis

PubMed Central

Schönfeld, Fabian; Wiskott, Laurenz

2015-01-01

What are the computational laws of hippocampal activity? In this paper we argue for the slowness principle as a fundamental processing paradigm behind hippocampal place cell firing. We present six different studies from the experimental literature, performed with real-life rats, that we replicated in computer simulations. Each of the chosen studies allows rodents to develop stable place fields and then examines a distinct property of the established spatial encoding: adaptation to cue relocation and removal; directional dependent firing in the linear track and open field; and morphing and scaling the environment itself. Simulations are based on a hierarchical Slow Feature Analysis (SFA) network topped by a principal component analysis (ICA) output layer. The slowness principle is shown to account for the main findings of the presented experimental studies. The SFA network generates its responses using raw visual input only, which adds to its biological plausibility but requires experiments performed in light conditions. Future iterations of the model will thus have to incorporate additional information, such as path integration and grid cell activity, in order to be able to also replicate studies that take place during darkness. PMID:26052279

Attention to local and global levels of hierarchical Navon figures affects rapid scene categorization.

PubMed

Brand, John; Johnson, Aaron P

2014-01-01

In four experiments, we investigated how attention to local and global levels of hierarchical Navon figures affected the selection of diagnostic spatial scale information used in scene categorization. We explored this issue by asking observers to classify hybrid images (i.e., images that contain low spatial frequency (LSF) content of one image, and high spatial frequency (HSF) content from a second image) immediately following global and local Navon tasks. Hybrid images can be classified according to either their LSF, or HSF content; thus, making them ideal for investigating diagnostic spatial scale preference. Although observers were sensitive to both spatial scales (Experiment 1), they overwhelmingly preferred to classify hybrids based on LSF content (Experiment 2). In Experiment 3, we demonstrated that LSF based hybrid categorization was faster following global Navon tasks, suggesting that LSF processing associated with global Navon tasks primed the selection of LSFs in hybrid images. In Experiment 4, replicating Experiment 3 but suppressing the LSF information in Navon letters by contrast balancing the stimuli examined this hypothesis. Similar to Experiment 3, observers preferred to classify hybrids based on LSF content; however and in contrast, LSF based hybrid categorization was slower following global than local Navon tasks.

Fast Time-Varying Volume Rendering Using Time-Space Partition (TSP) Tree

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Han-Wei; Chiang, Ling-Jen; Ma, Kwan-Liu

1999-01-01

We present a new, algorithm for rapid rendering of time-varying volumes. A new hierarchical data structure that is capable of capturing both the temporal and the spatial coherence is proposed. Conventional hierarchical data structures such as octrees are effective in characterizing the homogeneity of the field values existing in the spatial domain. However, when treating time merely as another dimension for a time-varying field, difficulties frequently arise due to the discrepancy between the field's spatial and temporal resolutions. In addition, treating spatial and temporal dimensions equally often prevents the possibility of detecting the coherence that is unique in the temporal domain. Using the proposed data structure, our algorithm can meet the following goals. First, both spatial and temporal coherence are identified and exploited for accelerating the rendering process. Second, our algorithm allows the user to supply the desired error tolerances at run time for the purpose of image-quality/rendering-speed trade-off. Third, the amount of data that are required to be loaded into main memory is reduced, and thus the I/O overhead is minimized. This low I/O overhead makes our algorithm suitable for out-of-core applications.

Attention to local and global levels of hierarchical Navon figures affects rapid scene categorization

PubMed Central

Brand, John; Johnson, Aaron P.

2014-01-01

In four experiments, we investigated how attention to local and global levels of hierarchical Navon figures affected the selection of diagnostic spatial scale information used in scene categorization. We explored this issue by asking observers to classify hybrid images (i.e., images that contain low spatial frequency (LSF) content of one image, and high spatial frequency (HSF) content from a second image) immediately following global and local Navon tasks. Hybrid images can be classified according to either their LSF, or HSF content; thus, making them ideal for investigating diagnostic spatial scale preference. Although observers were sensitive to both spatial scales (Experiment 1), they overwhelmingly preferred to classify hybrids based on LSF content (Experiment 2). In Experiment 3, we demonstrated that LSF based hybrid categorization was faster following global Navon tasks, suggesting that LSF processing associated with global Navon tasks primed the selection of LSFs in hybrid images. In Experiment 4, replicating Experiment 3 but suppressing the LSF information in Navon letters by contrast balancing the stimuli examined this hypothesis. Similar to Experiment 3, observers preferred to classify hybrids based on LSF content; however and in contrast, LSF based hybrid categorization was slower following global than local Navon tasks. PMID:25520675

Spatial analysis of macro-level bicycle crashes using the class of conditional autoregressive models.

PubMed

Saha, Dibakar; Alluri, Priyanka; Gan, Albert; Wu, Wanyang

2018-02-21

The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between bicycle crash frequency and their contributing factors at the census block group level in Florida, USA. Crashes aggregated over the census block groups tend to be clustered (i.e., spatially dependent) rather than randomly distributed. To account for the effect of spatial dependence across the census block groups, the class of conditional autoregressive (CAR) models were employed within the hierarchical Bayesian framework. Based on four years (2011-2014) of crash data, total and fatal-and-severe injury bicycle crash frequencies were modeled as a function of a large number of variables representing demographic and socio-economic characteristics, roadway infrastructure and traffic characteristics, and bicycle activity characteristics. This study explored and compared the performance of two CAR models, namely the Besag's model and the Leroux's model, in crash prediction. The Besag's models, which differ from the Leroux's models by the structure of how spatial autocorrelation are specified in the models, were found to fit the data better. A 95% Bayesian credible interval was selected to identify the variables that had credible impact on bicycle crashes. A total of 21 variables were found to be credible in the total crash model, while 18 variables were found to be credible in the fatal-and-severe injury crash model. Population, daily vehicle miles traveled, age cohorts, household automobile ownership, density of urban roads by functional class, bicycle trip miles, and bicycle trip intensity had positive effects in both the total and fatal-and-severe crash models. Educational attainment variables, truck percentage, and density of rural roads by functional class were found to be negatively associated with both total and fatal-and-severe bicycle crash frequencies. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Distributed mixed-integer fuzzy hierarchical programming for municipal solid waste management. Part I: System identification and methodology development.

PubMed

Cheng, Guanhui; Huang, Guohe; Dong, Cong; Xu, Ye; Chen, Xiujuan; Chen, Jiapei

2017-03-01

Due to the existence of complexities of heterogeneities, hierarchy, discreteness, and interactions in municipal solid waste management (MSWM) systems such as Beijing, China, a series of socio-economic and eco-environmental problems may emerge or worsen and result in irredeemable damages in the following decades. Meanwhile, existing studies, especially ones focusing on MSWM in Beijing, could hardly reflect these complexities in system simulations and provide reliable decision support for management practices. Thus, a framework of distributed mixed-integer fuzzy hierarchical programming (DMIFHP) is developed in this study for MSWM under these complexities. Beijing is selected as a representative case. The Beijing MSWM system is comprehensively analyzed in many aspects such as socio-economic conditions, natural conditions, spatial heterogeneities, treatment facilities, and system complexities, building a solid foundation for system simulation and optimization. Correspondingly, the MSWM system in Beijing is discretized as 235 grids to reflect spatial heterogeneity. A DMIFHP model which is a nonlinear programming problem is constructed to parameterize the Beijing MSWM system. To enable scientific solving of it, a solution algorithm is proposed based on coupling of fuzzy programming and mixed-integer linear programming. Innovations and advantages of the DMIFHP framework are discussed. The optimal MSWM schemes and mechanism revelations will be discussed in another companion paper due to length limitation.

An epidemiological model of internet worms with hierarchical dispersal and spatial clustering of hosts.

PubMed

Hiebeler, David E; Audibert, Andrew; Strubell, Emma; Michaud, Isaac J

2017-04-07

Beginning in 2001, many instances of malicious software known as Internet worms have been using biological strategies such as hierarchical dispersal to seek out and spread to new susceptible hosts more efficiently. We measured the distribution of potentially susceptible hosts in the space of Internet addresses to determine their clustering. We have used the results to construct a full-size simulated Internet with 2 32 hosts with mean and variance of susceptible hosts chosen to match our measurements at multiple spatial scales. Epidemiological simulations of outbreaks among the roughly 2.8×10 6 susceptible hosts on this full-sized network show that local preference scanning greatly increases the chances for an infected host to locate and infect other susceptible hosts by a factor of as much as several hundred. However, once deploying this strategy, the overall success of a worm is relatively insensitive to the details of its dispersal strategy over a wide range of parameters. In addition, although using localized interactions may allow malicious software to spread more rapidly or to more hosts on average, it can also lead to increased variability in infection levels among replicate simulations. Using such dispersal strategies may therefore be a high risk, high reward strategy for the authors of such software. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spectral-Spatial Classification of Hyperspectral Images Using Hierarchical Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tarabalka, Yuliya; Tilton, James C.

2011-01-01

A new spectral-spatial method for hyperspectral data classification is proposed. For a given hyperspectral image, probabilistic pixelwise classification is first applied. Then, hierarchical step-wise optimization algorithm is performed, by iteratively merging neighboring regions with the smallest Dissimilarity Criterion (DC) and recomputing class labels for new regions. The DC is computed by comparing region mean vectors, class labels and a number of pixels in the two regions under consideration. The algorithm is converged when all the pixels get involved in the region merging procedure. Experimental results are presented on two remote sensing hyperspectral images acquired by the AVIRIS and ROSIS sensors. The proposed approach improves classification accuracies and provides maps with more homogeneous regions, when compared to previously proposed classification techniques.

Hierarchical Spatio-temporal Visual Analysis of Cluster Evolution in Electrocorticography Data

DOE PAGES

Murugesan, Sugeerth; Bouchard, Kristofer; Chang, Edward; ...

2016-10-02

Here, we present ECoG ClusterFlow, a novel interactive visual analysis tool for the exploration of high-resolution Electrocorticography (ECoG) data. Our system detects and visualizes dynamic high-level structures, such as communities, using the time-varying spatial connectivity network derived from the high-resolution ECoG data. ECoG ClusterFlow provides a multi-scale visualization of the spatio-temporal patterns underlying the time-varying communities using two views: 1) an overview summarizing the evolution of clusters over time and 2) a hierarchical glyph-based technique that uses data aggregation and small multiples techniques to visualize the propagation of clusters in their spatial domain. ECoG ClusterFlow makes it possible 1) tomore » compare the spatio-temporal evolution patterns across various time intervals, 2) to compare the temporal information at varying levels of granularity, and 3) to investigate the evolution of spatial patterns without occluding the spatial context information. Lastly, we present case studies done in collaboration with neuroscientists on our team for both simulated and real epileptic seizure data aimed at evaluating the effectiveness of our approach.« less

Autoregressive spatially varying coefficients model for predicting daily PM2.5 using VIIRS satellite AOT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schliep, E. M.; Gelfand, A. E.; Holland, D. M.

2015-12-01

There is considerable demand for accurate air quality information in human health analyses. The sparsity of ground monitoring stations across the United States motivates the need for advanced statistical models to predict air quality metrics, such as PM2.5, at unobserved sites. Remote sensing technologies have the potential to expand our knowledge of PM2.5 spatial patterns beyond what we can predict from current PM2.5 monitoring networks. Data from satellites have an additional advantage in not requiring extensive emission inventories necessary for most atmospheric models that have been used in earlier data fusion models for air pollution. Statistical models combining monitoring station data with satellite-obtained aerosol optical thickness (AOT), also referred to as aerosol optical depth (AOD), have been proposed in the literature with varying levels of success in predicting PM2.5. The benefit of using AOT is that satellites provide complete gridded spatial coverage. However, the challenges involved with using it in fusion models are (1) the correlation between the two data sources varies both in time and in space, (2) the data sources are temporally and spatially misaligned, and (3) there is extensive missingness in the monitoring data and also in the satellite data due to cloud cover. We propose a hierarchical autoregressive spatially varying coefficients model to jointly model the two data sources, which addresses the foregoing challenges. Additionally, we offer formal model comparison for competing models in terms of model fit and out of sample prediction of PM2.5. The models are applied to daily observations of PM2.5 and AOT in the summer months of 2013 across the conterminous United States. Most notably, during this time period, we find small in-sample improvement incorporating AOT into our autoregressive model but little out-of-sample predictive improvement.

Multiple drivers, scales, and interactions influence southern Appalachian stream salamander occupancy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cecala, Kristen K.; Maerz, John C.; Halstead, Brian J.; Frisch, John R.; Gragson, Ted L.; Hepinstall-Cymerman, Jeffrey; Leigh, David S.; Jackson, C. Rhett; Peterson, James T.; Pringle, Catherine M.

2018-01-01

Understanding how factors that vary in spatial scale relate to population abundance is vital to forecasting species responses to environmental change. Stream and river ecosystems are inherently hierarchical, potentially resulting in organismal responses to fine‐scale changes in patch characteristics that are conditional on the watershed context. Here, we address how populations of two salamander species are affected by interactions among hierarchical processes operating at different scales within a rapidly changing landscape of the southern Appalachian Mountains. We modeled reach‐level occupancy of larval and adult black‐bellied salamanders (Desmognathus quadramaculatus) and larval Blue Ridge two‐lined salamanders (Eurycea wilderae) as a function of 17 different terrestrial and aquatic predictor variables that varied in spatial extent. We found that salamander occurrence varied widely among streams within fully forested catchments, but also exhibited species‐specific responses to changes in local conditions. While D. quadramaculatus declined predictably in relation to losses in forest cover, larval occupancy exhibited the strongest negative response to forest loss as well as decreases in elevation. Conversely, occupancy of E. wilderae was unassociated with watershed conditions, only responding negatively to higher proportions of fast‐flowing stream habitat types. Evaluation of hierarchical relationships demonstrated that most fine‐scale variables were closely correlated with broad watershed‐scale variables, suggesting that local reach‐scale factors have relatively smaller effects within the context of the larger landscape. Our results imply that effective management of southern Appalachian stream salamanders must first focus on the larger scale condition of watersheds before management of local‐scale conditions should proceed. Our findings confirm the results of some studies while refuting the results of others, which may indicate that prescriptive recommendations for range‐wide management of species or the application of a single management focus across large geographic areas is inappropriate.

Risk adjustment in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program: a comparison of logistic versus hierarchical modeling.

PubMed

Cohen, Mark E; Dimick, Justin B; Bilimoria, Karl Y; Ko, Clifford Y; Richards, Karen; Hall, Bruce Lee

2009-12-01

Although logistic regression has commonly been used to adjust for risk differences in patient and case mix to permit quality comparisons across hospitals, hierarchical modeling has been advocated as the preferred methodology, because it accounts for clustering of patients within hospitals. It is unclear whether hierarchical models would yield important differences in quality assessments compared with logistic models when applied to American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) data. Our objective was to evaluate differences in logistic versus hierarchical modeling for identifying hospitals with outlying outcomes in the ACS-NSQIP. Data from ACS-NSQIP patients who underwent colorectal operations in 2008 at hospitals that reported at least 100 operations were used to generate logistic and hierarchical prediction models for 30-day morbidity and mortality. Differences in risk-adjusted performance (ratio of observed-to-expected events) and outlier detections from the two models were compared. Logistic and hierarchical models identified the same 25 hospitals as morbidity outliers (14 low and 11 high outliers), but the hierarchical model identified 2 additional high outliers. Both models identified the same eight hospitals as mortality outliers (five low and three high outliers). The values of observed-to-expected events ratios and p values from the two models were highly correlated. Results were similar when data were permitted from hospitals providing < 100 patients. When applied to ACS-NSQIP data, logistic and hierarchical models provided nearly identical results with respect to identification of hospitals' observed-to-expected events ratio outliers. As hierarchical models are prone to implementation problems, logistic regression will remain an accurate and efficient method for performing risk adjustment of hospital quality comparisons.

Strong influence of variable treatment on the performance of numerically defined ecological regions.

PubMed

Snelder, Ton; Lehmann, Anthony; Lamouroux, Nicolas; Leathwick, John; Allenbach, Karin

2009-10-01

Numerical clustering has frequently been used to define hierarchically organized ecological regionalizations, but there has been little robust evaluation of their performance (i.e., the degree to which regions discriminate areas with similar ecological character). In this study we investigated the effect of the weighting and treatment of input variables on the performance of regionalizations defined by agglomerative clustering across a range of hierarchical levels. For this purpose, we developed three ecological regionalizations of Switzerland of increasing complexity using agglomerative clustering. Environmental data for our analysis were drawn from a 400 m grid and consisted of estimates of 11 environmental variables for each grid cell describing climate, topography and lithology. Regionalization 1 was defined from the environmental variables which were given equal weights. We used the same variables in Regionalization 2 but weighted and transformed them on the basis of a dissimilarity model that was fitted to land cover composition data derived for a random sample of cells from interpretation of aerial photographs. Regionalization 3 was a further two-stage development of Regionalization 2 where specific classifications, also weighted and transformed using dissimilarity models, were applied to 25 small scale "sub-domains" defined by Regionalization 2. Performance was assessed in terms of the discrimination of land cover composition for an independent set of sites using classification strength (CS), which measured the similarity of land cover composition within classes and the dissimilarity between classes. Regionalization 2 performed significantly better than Regionalization 1, but the largest gains in performance, compared to Regionalization 1, occurred at coarse hierarchical levels (i.e., CS did not increase significantly beyond the 25-region level). Regionalization 3 performed better than Regionalization 2 beyond the 25-region level and CS values continued to increase to the 95-region level. The results show that the performance of regionalizations defined by agglomerative clustering are sensitive to variable weighting and transformation. We conclude that large gains in performance can be achieved by training classifications using dissimilarity models. However, these gains are restricted to a narrow range of hierarchical levels because agglomerative clustering is unable to represent the variation in importance of variables at different spatial scales. We suggest that further advances in the numerical definition of hierarchically organized ecological regionalizations will be possible with techniques developed in the field of statistical modeling of the distribution of community composition.

Evaluating the ability of regional models to predict local avian abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

LeBrun, Jaymi J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Miller, James R.

2012-01-01

Spatial modeling over broad scales can potentially direct conservation efforts to areas with high species-specific abundances. We examined the performance of regional models for predicting bird abundance at spatial scales typically addressed in conservation planning. Specifically, we used point count data on wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) and blue-winged warbler (Vermivora cyanoptera) from 2 time periods (1995-1998 and 2006-2007) to evaluate the ability of regional models derived via Bayesian hierarchical techniques to predict bird abundance. We developed models for each species within Bird Conservation Region (BCR) 23 in the upper midwestern United States at 800-ha, 8,000-ha, and approximately 80,000-ha scales. We obtained count data from the Breeding Bird Survey and land cover data from the National Land Cover Dataset (1992). We evaluated predictions from the best models, as defined by an information-theoretic criterion, using point count data collected within an ecological subregion of BCR 23 at 131 count stations in the 1990s and again in 2006-2007. Competing (Deviance Information Criteria rs = 0.57; P = 0.14), the survey period that most closely aligned with the time period of data used for regional model construction. Wood thrush models exhibited positive correlations with point count data for all survey areas and years combined (rs = 0.58, P ≤ 0.001). In comparison, blue-winged warbler models performed worse as time increased between the point count surveys and vintage of the model building data (rs = 0.03, P = 0.92 for Iowa and rs = 0.13, P = 0.51 for all areas, 2006-2007), likely related to the ephemeral nature of their preferred early successional habitat. Species abundance and sensitivity to changing habitat conditions seems to be an important factor in determining the predictive ability of regional models. Hierarchical models can be a useful tool for concentrating efforts at the scale of management units and should be one of many tools used by land managers, but we caution that the utility of such models may decrease over time for species preferring relatively ephemeral habitats if model inputs are not updated accordingly.

What are hierarchical models and how do we analyze them?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, Andy

2016-01-01

In this chapter we provide a basic definition of hierarchical models and introduce the two canonical hierarchical models in this book: site occupancy and N-mixture models. The former is a hierarchical extension of logistic regression and the latter is a hierarchical extension of Poisson regression. We introduce basic concepts of probability modeling and statistical inference including likelihood and Bayesian perspectives. We go through the mechanics of maximizing the likelihood and characterizing the posterior distribution by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We give a general perspective on topics such as model selection and assessment of model fit, although we demonstrate these topics in practice in later chapters (especially Chapters 5, 6, 7, and 10 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Chapter 7 Chapter 10)

Very high resolution Earth Observation features for testing the direct and indirect effects of landscape structure on local habitat quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mairota, Paola; Cafarelli, Barbara; Labadessa, Rocco; Lovergine, Francesco P.; Tarantino, Cristina; Nagendra, Harini; Didham, Raphael K.

2015-02-01

Modelling the empirical relationships between habitat quality and species distribution patterns is the first step to understanding human impacts on biodiversity. It is important to build on this understanding to develop a broader conceptual appreciation of the influence of surrounding landscape structure on local habitat quality, across multiple spatial scales. Traditional models which report that 'habitat amount' in the landscape is sufficient to explain patterns of biodiversity, irrespective of habitat configuration or spatial variation in habitat quality at edges, implicitly treat each unit of habitat as interchangeable and ignore the high degree of interdependence between spatial components of land-use change. Here, we test the contrasting hypothesis, that local habitat units are not interchangeable in their habitat attributes, but are instead dependent on variation in surrounding habitat structure at both patch- and landscape levels. As the statistical approaches needed to implement such hierarchical causal models are observation-intensive, we utilise very high resolution (VHR) Earth Observation (EO) images to rapidly generate fine-grained measures of habitat patch internal heterogeneities over large spatial extents. We use linear mixed-effects models to test whether these remotely-sensed proxies for habitat quality were influenced by surrounding patch or landscape structure. The results demonstrate the significant influence of surrounding patch and landscape context on local habitat quality. They further indicate that such an influence can be direct, when a landscape variable alone influences the habitat structure variable, and/or indirect when the landscape and patch attributes have a conjoined effect on the response variable. We conclude that a substantial degree of interaction among spatial configuration effects is likely to be the norm in determining the ecological consequences of habitat fragmentation, thus corroborating the notion of the spatial context dependence of habitat quality.

Bayesian hierarchical models for regional climate reconstructions of the last glacial maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitzel, Nils; Hense, Andreas; Ohlwein, Christian

2017-04-01

Spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate are important for the understanding of the long term behavior of the climate system and the sensitivity to forcing changes. Unfortunately, they are subject to large uncertainties, have to deal with a complex proxy-climate structure, and a physically reasonable interpolation between the sparse proxy observations is difficult. Bayesian Hierarchical Models (BHMs) are a class of statistical models that is well suited for spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate because they permit the inclusion of multiple sources of information (e.g. records from different proxy types, uncertain age information, output from climate simulations) and quantify uncertainties in a statistically rigorous way. BHMs in paleoclimatology typically consist of three stages which are modeled individually and are combined using Bayesian inference techniques. The data stage models the proxy-climate relation (often named transfer function), the process stage models the spatio-temporal distribution of the climate variables of interest, and the prior stage consists of prior distributions of the model parameters. For our BHMs, we translate well-known proxy-climate transfer functions for pollen to a Bayesian framework. In addition, we can include Gaussian distributed local climate information from preprocessed proxy records. The process stage combines physically reasonable spatial structures from prior distributions with proxy records which leads to a multivariate posterior probability distribution for the reconstructed climate variables. The prior distributions that constrain the possible spatial structure of the climate variables are calculated from climate simulation output. We present results from pseudoproxy tests as well as new regional reconstructions of temperatures for the last glacial maximum (LGM, ˜ 21,000 years BP). These reconstructions combine proxy data syntheses with information from climate simulations for the LGM that were performed in the PMIP3 project. The proxy data syntheses consist either of raw pollen data or of normally distributed climate data from preprocessed proxy records. Future extensions of our method contain the inclusion of other proxy types (transfer functions), the implementation of other spatial interpolation techniques, the use of age uncertainties, and the extension to spatio-temporal reconstructions of the last deglaciation. Our work is part of the PalMod project funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Science (BMBF).

A Hierarchical Analysis of Tree Growth and Environmental Drivers Across Eastern US Temperate Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantooth, J.; Dietze, M.

2014-12-01

Improving predictions of how forests in the eastern United States will respond to future global change requires a better understanding of the drivers of variability in tree growth rates. Current inventory data lack the temporal resolution to characterize interannual variability, while existing growth records lack the extent required to assess spatial scales of variability. Therefore, we established a network of forest inventory plots across ten sites across the eastern US, and measured growth in adult trees using increment cores. Sites were chosen to maximize climate space explored, while within sites, plots were spread across primary environmental gradients to explore landscape-level variability in growth. Using the annual growth record available from tree cores, we explored the responses of trees to multiple environmental covariates over multiple spatial and temporal scales. We hypothesized that within and across sites growth rates vary among species, and that intraspecific growth rates increase with temperature along a species' range. We also hypothesized that trees show synchrony in growth responses to landscape-scale climatic changes. Initial analyses of growth increments indicate that across sites, trees with intermediate shade tolerance, e.g. Red Oak (Quercus rubra), tend to have the highest growth rates. At the site level, there is evidence for synchrony in response to large-scale climatic events (e.g. prolonged drought and above average temperatures). However, growth responses to climate at the landscape scale have yet to be detected. Our current analysis utilizes hierarchical Bayesian state-space modeling to focus on growth responses of adult trees to environmental covariates at multiple spatial and temporal scales. This predictive model of tree growth currently incorporates observed effects at the individual, plot, site, and landscape scale. Current analysis using this model shows a potential slowing of growth in the past decade for two sites in the northeastern US (Harvard Forest and Bartlett Experimental Forest), however more work is required to determine the robustness of this trend. Finally, these observations are being incorporated into ecosystem models using the Brown Dog informatics tools and the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) data assimilation workflow.

Model-based inference for small area estimation with sampling weights

PubMed Central

Vandendijck, Y.; Faes, C.; Kirby, R.S.; Lawson, A.; Hens, N.

2017-01-01

Obtaining reliable estimates about health outcomes for areas or domains where only few to no samples are available is the goal of small area estimation (SAE). Often, we rely on health surveys to obtain information about health outcomes. Such surveys are often characterised by a complex design, stratification, and unequal sampling weights as common features. Hierarchical Bayesian models are well recognised in SAE as a spatial smoothing method, but often ignore the sampling weights that reflect the complex sampling design. In this paper, we focus on data obtained from a health survey where the sampling weights of the sampled individuals are the only information available about the design. We develop a predictive model-based approach to estimate the prevalence of a binary outcome for both the sampled and non-sampled individuals, using hierarchical Bayesian models that take into account the sampling weights. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of our proposed method with other established methods. The results indicate that our proposed method achieves great reductions in mean squared error when compared with standard approaches. It performs equally well or better when compared with more elaborate methods when there is a relationship between the responses and the sampling weights. The proposed method is applied to estimate asthma prevalence across districts. PMID:28989860

Modeling Kepler Transit Light Curves as False Positives: Rejection of Blend Scenarios for Kepler-9, and Validation of Kepler-9 d, a Super-Earth-Size Planet in a Multiple System

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-20

of 2009, was de- signed to address the important question of the frequency of Earth -size planets around Sun -like stars, and to characterize ex...physically associated with the candidate (hierarchical triple systems) and in a long-period orbit around their common center of mass would often be spatially...positive scenar- ios that is complementary to other diagnostics, and should play an important role in the discovery of Earth -size planets around other

Hierarchical thermoplastic rippled nanostructures regulate Schwann cell adhesion, morphology and spatial organization.

PubMed

Masciullo, Cecilia; Dell'Anna, Rossana; Tonazzini, Ilaria; Böettger, Roman; Pepponi, Giancarlo; Cecchini, Marco

2017-10-12

Periodic ripples are a variety of anisotropic nanostructures that can be realized by ion beam irradiation on a wide range of solid surfaces. Only a few authors have investigated these surfaces for tuning the response of biological systems, probably because it is challenging to directly produce them in materials that well sustain long-term cellular cultures. Here, hierarchical rippled nanotopographies with a lateral periodicity of ∼300 nm are produced from a gold-irradiated germanium mold in polyethylene terephthalate (PET), a biocompatible polymer approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for clinical applications, by a novel three-step embossing process. The effects of nano-ripples on Schwann Cells (SCs) are studied in view of their possible use for nerve-repair applications. The data demonstrate that nano-ripples can enhance short-term SC adhesion and proliferation (3-24 h after seeding), drive their actin cytoskeleton spatial organization and sustain long-term cell growth. Notably, SCs are oriented perpendicularly with respect to the nanopattern lines. These results provide information about the possible use of hierarchical nano-rippled elements for nerve-regeneration protocols.

Genome-wide significant localization for working and spatial memory: Identifying genes for psychosis using models of cognition.

PubMed

Knowles, Emma E M; Carless, Melanie A; de Almeida, Marcio A A; Curran, Joanne E; McKay, D Reese; Sprooten, Emma; Dyer, Thomas D; Göring, Harald H; Olvera, Rene; Fox, Peter; Almasy, Laura; Duggirala, Ravi; Kent, Jack W; Blangero, John; Glahn, David C

2014-01-01

It is well established that risk for developing psychosis is largely mediated by the influence of genes, but identifying precisely which genes underlie that risk has been problematic. Focusing on endophenotypes, rather than illness risk, is one solution to this problem. Impaired cognition is a well-established endophenotype of psychosis. Here we aimed to characterize the genetic architecture of cognition using phenotypically detailed models as opposed to relying on general IQ or individual neuropsychological measures. In so doing we hoped to identify genes that mediate cognitive ability, which might also contribute to psychosis risk. Hierarchical factor models of genetically clustered cognitive traits were subjected to linkage analysis followed by QTL region-specific association analyses in a sample of 1,269 Mexican American individuals from extended pedigrees. We identified four genome wide significant QTLs, two for working and two for spatial memory, and a number of plausible and interesting candidate genes. The creation of detailed models of cognition seemingly enhanced the power to detect genetic effects on cognition and provided a number of possible candidate genes for psychosis. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Logistic Stick-Breaking Process

PubMed Central

Ren, Lu; Du, Lan; Carin, Lawrence; Dunson, David B.

2013-01-01

A logistic stick-breaking process (LSBP) is proposed for non-parametric clustering of general spatially- or temporally-dependent data, imposing the belief that proximate data are more likely to be clustered together. The sticks in the LSBP are realized via multiple logistic regression functions, with shrinkage priors employed to favor contiguous and spatially localized segments. The LSBP is also extended for the simultaneous processing of multiple data sets, yielding a hierarchical logistic stick-breaking process (H-LSBP). The model parameters (atoms) within the H-LSBP are shared across the multiple learning tasks. Efficient variational Bayesian inference is derived, and comparisons are made to related techniques in the literature. Experimental analysis is performed for audio waveforms and images, and it is demonstrated that for segmentation applications the LSBP yields generally homogeneous segments with sharp boundaries. PMID:25258593

Three-dimensional multiscale modeling of dendritic spacing selection during Al-Si directional solidification

DOE PAGES

Tourret, Damien; Clarke, Amy J.; Imhoff, Seth D.; ...

2015-05-27

We present a three-dimensional extension of the multiscale dendritic needle network (DNN) model. This approach enables quantitative simulations of the unsteady dynamics of complex hierarchical networks in spatially extended dendritic arrays. We apply the model to directional solidification of Al-9.8 wt.%Si alloy and directly compare the model predictions with measurements from experiments with in situ x-ray imaging. The focus is on the dynamical selection of primary spacings over a range of growth velocities, and the influence of sample geometry on the selection of spacings. Simulation results show good agreement with experiments. The computationally efficient DNN model opens new avenues formore » investigating the dynamics of large dendritic arrays at scales relevant to solidification experiments and processes.« less

QAARM: quasi-anharmonic autoregressive model reveals molecular recognition pathways in ubiquitin

PubMed Central

Savol, Andrej J.; Burger, Virginia M.; Agarwal, Pratul K.; Ramanathan, Arvind; Chennubhotla, Chakra S.

2011-01-01

Motivation: Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have dramatically improved the atomistic understanding of protein motions, energetics and function. These growing datasets have necessitated a corresponding emphasis on trajectory analysis methods for characterizing simulation data, particularly since functional protein motions and transitions are often rare and/or intricate events. Observing that such events give rise to long-tailed spatial distributions, we recently developed a higher-order statistics based dimensionality reduction method, called quasi-anharmonic analysis (QAA), for identifying biophysically-relevant reaction coordinates and substates within MD simulations. Further characterization of conformation space should consider the temporal dynamics specific to each identified substate. Results: Our model uses hierarchical clustering to learn energetically coherent substates and dynamic modes of motion from a 0.5 μs ubiqutin simulation. Autoregressive (AR) modeling within and between states enables a compact and generative description of the conformational landscape as it relates to functional transitions between binding poses. Lacking a predictive component, QAA is extended here within a general AR model appreciative of the trajectory's temporal dependencies and the specific, local dynamics accessible to a protein within identified energy wells. These metastable states and their transition rates are extracted within a QAA-derived subspace using hierarchical Markov clustering to provide parameter sets for the second-order AR model. We show the learned model can be extrapolated to synthesize trajectories of arbitrary length. Contact: ramanathana@ornl.gov; chakracs@pitt.edu PMID:21685101

Evaluation of Deep Learning Representations of Spatial Storm Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagne, D. J., II; Haupt, S. E.; Nychka, D. W.

2017-12-01

The spatial structure of a severe thunderstorm and its surrounding environment provide useful information about the potential for severe weather hazards, including tornadoes, hail, and high winds. Statistics computed over the area of a storm or from the pre-storm environment can provide descriptive information but fail to capture structural information. Because the storm environment is a complex, high-dimensional space, identifying methods to encode important spatial storm information in a low-dimensional form should aid analysis and prediction of storms by statistical and machine learning models. Principal component analysis (PCA), a more traditional approach, transforms high-dimensional data into a set of linearly uncorrelated, orthogonal components ordered by the amount of variance explained by each component. The burgeoning field of deep learning offers two potential approaches to this problem. Convolutional Neural Networks are a supervised learning method for transforming spatial data into a hierarchical set of feature maps that correspond with relevant combinations of spatial structures in the data. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are an unsupervised deep learning model that uses two neural networks trained against each other to produce encoded representations of spatial data. These different spatial encoding methods were evaluated on the prediction of severe hail for a large set of storm patches extracted from the NCAR convection-allowing ensemble. Each storm patch contains information about storm structure and the near-storm environment. Logistic regression and random forest models were trained using the PCA and GAN encodings of the storm data and were compared against the predictions from a convolutional neural network. All methods showed skill over climatology at predicting the probability of severe hail. However, the verification scores among the methods were very similar and the predictions were highly correlated. Further evaluations are being performed to determine how the choice of input variables affects the results.

Geostatistical estimation of forest biomass in interior Alaska combining Landsat-derived tree cover, sampled airborne lidar and field observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Andersen, Hans-Erik; Pattison, Robert; Cook, Bruce D.; Morton, Douglas C.; Alonzo, Michael; Nelson, Ross; Gregoire, Timothy; Ene, Liviu; Gobakken, Terje; Næsset, Erik

2018-06-01

The goal of this research was to develop and examine the performance of a geostatistical coregionalization modeling approach for combining field inventory measurements, strip samples of airborne lidar and Landsat-based remote sensing data products to predict aboveground biomass (AGB) in interior Alaska's Tanana Valley. The proposed modeling strategy facilitates pixel-level mapping of AGB density predictions across the entire spatial domain. Additionally, the coregionalization framework allows for statistically sound estimation of total AGB for arbitrary areal units within the study area---a key advance to support diverse management objectives in interior Alaska. This research focuses on appropriate characterization of prediction uncertainty in the form of posterior predictive coverage intervals and standard deviations. Using the framework detailed here, it is possible to quantify estimation uncertainty for any spatial extent, ranging from pixel-level predictions of AGB density to estimates of AGB stocks for the full domain. The lidar-informed coregionalization models consistently outperformed their counterpart lidar-free models in terms of point-level predictive performance and total AGB precision. Additionally, the inclusion of Landsat-derived forest cover as a covariate further improved estimation precision in regions with lower lidar sampling intensity. Our findings also demonstrate that model-based approaches that do not explicitly account for residual spatial dependence can grossly underestimate uncertainty, resulting in falsely precise estimates of AGB. On the other hand, in a geostatistical setting, residual spatial structure can be modeled within a Bayesian hierarchical framework to obtain statistically defensible assessments of uncertainty for AGB estimates.

Assessing Local Model Adequacy in Bayesian Hierarchical Models Using the Partitioned Deviance Information Criterion

PubMed Central

Wheeler, David C.; Hickson, DeMarc A.; Waller, Lance A.

2010-01-01

Many diagnostic tools and goodness-of-fit measures, such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian deviance information criterion (DIC), are available to evaluate the overall adequacy of linear regression models. In addition, visually assessing adequacy in models has become an essential part of any regression analysis. In this paper, we focus on a spatial consideration of the local DIC measure for model selection and goodness-of-fit evaluation. We use a partitioning of the DIC into the local DIC, leverage, and deviance residuals to assess local model fit and influence for both individual observations and groups of observations in a Bayesian framework. We use visualization of the local DIC and differences in local DIC between models to assist in model selection and to visualize the global and local impacts of adding covariates or model parameters. We demonstrate the utility of the local DIC in assessing model adequacy using HIV prevalence data from pregnant women in the Butare province of Rwanda during 1989-1993 using a range of linear model specifications, from global effects only to spatially varying coefficient models, and a set of covariates related to sexual behavior. Results of applying the diagnostic visualization approach include more refined model selection and greater understanding of the models as applied to the data. PMID:21243121

Epidemic spreading on hierarchical geographical networks with mobile agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Xiao-Pu; Zhao, Zhi-Dan; Hadzibeganovic, Tarik; Wang, Bing-Hong

2014-05-01

Hierarchical geographical traffic networks are critical for our understanding of scaling laws in human trajectories. Here, we investigate the susceptible-infected epidemic process evolving on hierarchical networks in which agents randomly walk along the edges and establish contacts in network nodes. We employ a metapopulation modeling framework that allows us to explore the contagion spread patterns in relation to multi-scale mobility behaviors. A series of computer simulations revealed that a shifted power-law-like negative relationship between the peak timing of epidemics τ0 and population density, and a logarithmic positive relationship between τ0 and the network size, can both be explained by the gradual enlargement of fluctuations in the spreading process. We employ a semi-analytical method to better understand the nature of these relationships and the role of pertinent demographic factors. Additionally, we provide a quantitative discussion of the efficiency of a border screening procedure in delaying epidemic outbreaks on hierarchical networks, yielding a rather limited feasibility of this mitigation strategy but also its non-trivial dependence on population density, infector detectability, and the diversity of the susceptible region. Our results suggest that the interplay between the human spatial dynamics, network topology, and demographic factors can have important consequences for the global spreading and control of infectious diseases. These findings provide novel insights into the combined effects of human mobility and the organization of geographical networks on spreading processes, with important implications for both epidemiological research and health policy.

Incidental Learning of Links during Navigation: The Role of Visuo-Spatial Capacity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rouet, Jean-Francois; Voros, Zsofia; Pleh, Csaba

2012-01-01

We investigated the impact of readers' visuo-spatial (VS) capacity on their incidental learning of page links during the exploration of simple hierarchical hypertextual documents. Forty-three university students were asked to explore a series of hypertexts for a limited period of time. Then the participants were asked to recall the layout and the…

Temporal and spatial responses of Chironomidae (Diptera) and other benthic invertebrates to urban stormwater runoff

Treesearch

Susan E. Gresens; Kenneth T. Belt; Jamie A. Tang; Daniel C. Gwinn; Patricia A. Banks

2007-01-01

In a longitudinal study of two streams whose lower reaches received unattenuated urban stormwater runoff, physical disturbance by stormflow was less important than the persistant unidentified chemical impacts of urban stormwater in limiting the distribution of Chironomidae, and Ephemeroptera, Trichoptera and Plecoptera (EPT). A hierarchical spatial analysis showed that...

On the importance of avoiding shortcuts in applying cognitive models to hierarchical data.

PubMed

Boehm, Udo; Marsman, Maarten; Matzke, Dora; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2018-06-12

Psychological experiments often yield data that are hierarchically structured. A number of popular shortcut strategies in cognitive modeling do not properly accommodate this structure and can result in biased conclusions. To gauge the severity of these biases, we conducted a simulation study for a two-group experiment. We first considered a modeling strategy that ignores the hierarchical data structure. In line with theoretical results, our simulations showed that Bayesian and frequentist methods that rely on this strategy are biased towards the null hypothesis. Secondly, we considered a modeling strategy that takes a two-step approach by first obtaining participant-level estimates from a hierarchical cognitive model and subsequently using these estimates in a follow-up statistical test. Methods that rely on this strategy are biased towards the alternative hypothesis. Only hierarchical models of the multilevel data lead to correct conclusions. Our results are particularly relevant for the use of hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimates in cognitive modeling.

A Framework for Land Cover Classification Using Discrete Return LiDAR Data: Adopting Pseudo-Waveform and Hierarchical Segmentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jung, Jinha; Pasolli, Edoardo; Prasad, Saurabh; Tilton, James C.; Crawford, Melba M.

2014-01-01

Acquiring current, accurate land-use information is critical for monitoring and understanding the impact of anthropogenic activities on natural environments.Remote sensing technologies are of increasing importance because of their capability to acquire information for large areas in a timely manner, enabling decision makers to be more effective in complex environments. Although optical imagery has demonstrated to be successful for land cover classification, active sensors, such as light detection and ranging (LiDAR), have distinct capabilities that can be exploited to improve classification results. However, utilization of LiDAR data for land cover classification has not been fully exploited. Moreover, spatial-spectral classification has recently gained significant attention since classification accuracy can be improved by extracting additional information from the neighboring pixels. Although spatial information has been widely used for spectral data, less attention has been given to LiDARdata. In this work, a new framework for land cover classification using discrete return LiDAR data is proposed. Pseudo-waveforms are generated from the LiDAR data and processed by hierarchical segmentation. Spatial featuresare extracted in a region-based way using a new unsupervised strategy for multiple pruning of the segmentation hierarchy. The proposed framework is validated experimentally on a real dataset acquired in an urban area. Better classification results are exhibited by the proposed framework compared to the cases in which basic LiDAR products such as digital surface model and intensity image are used. Moreover, the proposed region-based feature extraction strategy results in improved classification accuracies in comparison with a more traditional window-based approach.

Predicting above-ground density and distribution of small mammal prey species at large spatial scales

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Grassland and shrub-steppe ecosystems are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic activities. Loss of native habitats may negatively impact important small mammal prey species. Little information, however, is available on the impact of habitat variability on density of small mammal prey species at broad spatial scales. We examined the relationship between small mammal density and remotely-sensed environmental covariates in shrub-steppe and grassland ecosystems in Wyoming, USA. We sampled four sciurid and leporid species groups using line transect methods, and used hierarchical distance-sampling to model density in response to variation in vegetation, climate, topographic, and anthropogenic variables, while accounting for variation in detection probability. We created spatial predictions of each species’ density and distribution. Sciurid and leporid species exhibited mixed responses to vegetation, such that changes to native habitat will likely affect prey species differently. Density of white-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys leucurus), Wyoming ground squirrels (Urocitellus elegans), and leporids correlated negatively with proportion of shrub or sagebrush cover and positively with herbaceous cover or bare ground, whereas least chipmunks showed a positive correlation with shrub cover and a negative correlation with herbaceous cover. Spatial predictions from our models provide a landscape-scale metric of above-ground prey density, which will facilitate the development of conservation plans for these taxa and their predators at spatial scales relevant to management. PMID:28520757

Temporal Dynamics and Spatial Variation of Azoxystrobin and Propiconazole Resistance in Zymoseptoria tritici: A Hierarchical Survey of Commercial Winter Wheat Fields in the Willamette Valley, Oregon.

PubMed

Hagerty, Christina H; Anderson, Nicole P; Mundt, Christopher C

2017-03-01

Fungicide resistance can cause disease control failure in agricultural systems, and is particularly concerning with Zymoseptoria tritici, the causal agent of Septoria tritici blotch of wheat. In North America, the first quinone outside inhibitor resistance in Z. tritici was discovered in the Willamette Valley of Oregon in 2012, which prompted this hierarchical survey of commercial winter wheat fields to monitor azoxystrobin- and propiconazole-resistant Z. tritici. Surveys were conducted in June 2014, January 2015, May 2015, and January 2016. The survey was organized in a hierarchical scheme: regions within the Willamette Valley, fields within the region, transects within the field, and samples within the transect. Overall, frequency of azoxystrobin-resistant isolates increased from 63 to 93% from June 2014 to January 2016. Resistance to azoxystrobin increased over time even within fields receiving no strobilurin applications. Propiconazole sensitivity varied over the course of the study but, overall, did not significantly change. Sensitivity to both fungicides showed no regional aggregation within the Willamette Valley. Greater than 80% of spatial variation in fungicide sensitivity was at the smallest hierarchical scale (within the transect) of the survey for both fungicides, and the resistance phenotypes were randomly distributed within sampled fields. Results suggest a need for a better understanding of the dynamics of fungicide resistance at the landscape level.

Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal Reservoir Inflow Forecast using Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhopadhyay, S.; Arumugam, S.

2017-12-01

Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) (15-90 days) streamflow forecasting is an emerging area of research that provides seamless information for reservoir operation from weather time scales to seasonal time scales. From an operational perspective, sub-seasonal inflow forecasts are highly valuable as these enable water managers to decide short-term releases (15-30 days), while holding water for seasonal needs (e.g., irrigation and municipal supply) and to meet end-of-the-season target storage at a desired level. We propose a Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model (BHHMM) to develop S2S inflow forecasts for the Tennessee Valley Area (TVA) reservoir system. Here, the hidden states are predicted by relevant indices that influence the inflows at S2S time scale. The hidden Markov model also captures the both spatial and temporal hierarchy in predictors that operate at S2S time scale with model parameters being estimated as a posterior distribution using a Bayesian framework. We present our work in two steps, namely single site model and multi-site model. For proof of concept, we consider inflows to Douglas Dam, Tennessee, in the single site model. For multisite model we consider reservoirs in the upper Tennessee valley. Streamflow forecasts are issued and updated continuously every day at S2S time scale. We considered precipitation forecasts obtained from NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) GCM as predictors for developing S2S streamflow forecasts along with relevant indices for predicting hidden states. Spatial dependence of the inflow series of reservoirs are also preserved in the multi-site model. To circumvent the non-normality of the data, we consider the HMM in a Generalized Linear Model setting. Skill of the proposed approach is tested using split sample validation against a traditional multi-site canonical correlation model developed using the same set of predictors. From the posterior distribution of the inflow forecasts, we also highlight different system behavior under varied global and local scale climatic influences from the developed BHMM.

Spatial variation of natural radiation and childhood leukaemia incidence in Great Britain.

PubMed

Richardson, S; Monfort, C; Green, M; Draper, G; Muirhead, C

This paper describes an analysis of the geographical variation of childhood leukaemia incidence in Great Britain over a 15 year period in relation to natural radiation (gamma and radon). Data at the level of the 459 district level local authorities in England, Wales and regional districts in Scotland are analysed in two complementary ways: first, by Poisson regressions with the inclusion of environmental covariates and a smooth spatial structure; secondly, by a hierarchical Bayesian model in which extra-Poisson variability is modelled explicitly in terms of spatial and non-spatial components. From this analysis, we deduce a strong indication that a main part of the variability is accounted for by a local neighbourhood 'clustering' structure. This structure is furthermore relatively stable over the 15 year period for the lymphocytic leukaemias which make up the majority of observed cases. We found no evidence of a positive association of childhood leukaemia incidence with outdoor or indoor gamma radiation levels. There is no consistent evidence of any association with radon levels. Indeed, in the Poisson regressions, a significant positive association was only observed for one 5-year period, a result which is not compatible with a stable environmental effect. Moreover, this positive association became clearly non-significant when over-dispersion relative to the Poisson distribution was taken into account.

Spatial model for risk prediction and sub-national prioritization to aid poliovirus eradication in Pakistan.

PubMed

Mercer, Laina D; Safdar, Rana M; Ahmed, Jamal; Mahamud, Abdirahman; Khan, M Muzaffar; Gerber, Sue; O'Leary, Aiden; Ryan, Mike; Salet, Frank; Kroiss, Steve J; Lyons, Hil; Upfill-Brown, Alexander; Chabot-Couture, Guillaume

2017-10-11

Pakistan is one of only three countries where poliovirus circulation remains endemic. For the Pakistan Polio Eradication Program, identifying high risk districts is essential to target interventions and allocate limited resources. Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework we developed a spatial Poisson hurdle model to jointly model the probability of one or more paralytic polio cases, and the number of cases that would be detected in the event of an outbreak. Rates of underimmunization, routine immunization, and population immunity, as well as seasonality and a history of cases were used to project future risk of cases. The expected number of cases in each district in a 6-month period was predicted using indicators from the previous 6-months and the estimated coefficients from the model. The model achieves an average of 90% predictive accuracy as measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, for the past 3 years of cases. The risk of poliovirus has decreased dramatically in many of the key reservoir areas in Pakistan. The results of this model have been used to prioritize sub-national areas in Pakistan to receive additional immunization activities, additional monitoring, or other special interventions.

Best Merge Region Growing with Integrated Probabilistic Classification for Hyperspectral Imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tarabalka, Yuliya; Tilton, James C.

2011-01-01

A new method for spectral-spatial classification of hyperspectral images is proposed. The method is based on the integration of probabilistic classification within the hierarchical best merge region growing algorithm. For this purpose, preliminary probabilistic support vector machines classification is performed. Then, hierarchical step-wise optimization algorithm is applied, by iteratively merging regions with the smallest Dissimilarity Criterion (DC). The main novelty of this method consists in defining a DC between regions as a function of region statistical and geometrical features along with classification probabilities. Experimental results are presented on a 200-band AVIRIS image of the Northwestern Indiana s vegetation area and compared with those obtained by recently proposed spectral-spatial classification techniques. The proposed method improves classification accuracies when compared to other classification approaches.

To Aggregate or Not and Potentially Better Questions for Clustered Data: The Need for Hierarchical Linear Modeling in CTE Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nimon, Kim

2012-01-01

Using state achievement data that are openly accessible, this paper demonstrates the application of hierarchical linear modeling within the context of career technical education research. Three prominent approaches to analyzing clustered data (i.e., modeling aggregated data, modeling disaggregated data, modeling hierarchical data) are discussed…

Spatial clustering of mental disorders and associated characteristics of the neighbourhood context in Malmö, Sweden, in 2001

PubMed Central

Chaix, Basile; Leyland, Alastair H; Sabel, Clive E; Chauvin, Pierre; Råstam, Lennart; Kristersson, Håkan; Merlo, Juan

2006-01-01

Study objective Previous research provides preliminary evidence of spatial variations of mental disorders and associations between neighbourhood social context and mental health. This study expands past literature by (1) using spatial techniques, rather than multilevel models, to compare the spatial distributions of two groups of mental disorders (that is, disorders due to psychoactive substance use, and neurotic, stress related, and somatoform disorders); and (2) investigating the independent impact of contextual deprivation and neighbourhood social disorganisation on mental health, while assessing both the magnitude and the spatial scale of these effects. Design Using different spatial techniques, the study investigated mental disorders due to psychoactive substance use, and neurotic disorders. Participants All 89 285 persons aged 40–69 years residing in Malmö, Sweden, in 2001, geolocated to their place of residence. Main results The spatial scan statistic identified a large cluster of increased prevalence in a similar location for the two mental disorders in the northern part of Malmö. However, hierarchical geostatistical models showed that the two groups of disorders exhibited a different spatial distribution, in terms of both magnitude and spatial scale. Mental disorders due to substance consumption showed larger neighbourhood variations, and varied in space on a larger scale, than neurotic disorders. After adjustment for individual factors, the risk of substance related disorders increased with neighbourhood deprivation and neighbourhood social disorganisation. The risk of neurotic disorders only increased with contextual deprivation. Measuring contextual factors across continuous space, it was found that these associations operated on a local scale. Conclusions Taking space into account in the analyses permitted deeper insight into the contextual determinants of mental disorders. PMID:16614334

Hierarchical Multinomial Processing Tree Models: A Latent-Trait Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klauer, Karl Christoph

2010-01-01

Multinomial processing tree models are widely used in many areas of psychology. A hierarchical extension of the model class is proposed, using a multivariate normal distribution of person-level parameters with the mean and covariance matrix to be estimated from the data. The hierarchical model allows one to take variability between persons into…

A hierarchical model combining distance sampling and time removal to estimate detection probability during avian point counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amundson, Courtney L.; Royle, J. Andrew; Handel, Colleen M.

2014-01-01

Imperfect detection during animal surveys biases estimates of abundance and can lead to improper conclusions regarding distribution and population trends. Farnsworth et al. (2005) developed a combined distance-sampling and time-removal model for point-transect surveys that addresses both availability (the probability that an animal is available for detection; e.g., that a bird sings) and perceptibility (the probability that an observer detects an animal, given that it is available for detection). We developed a hierarchical extension of the combined model that provides an integrated analysis framework for a collection of survey points at which both distance from the observer and time of initial detection are recorded. Implemented in a Bayesian framework, this extension facilitates evaluating covariates on abundance and detection probability, incorporating excess zero counts (i.e. zero-inflation), accounting for spatial autocorrelation, and estimating population density. Species-specific characteristics, such as behavioral displays and territorial dispersion, may lead to different patterns of availability and perceptibility, which may, in turn, influence the performance of such hierarchical models. Therefore, we first test our proposed model using simulated data under different scenarios of availability and perceptibility. We then illustrate its performance with empirical point-transect data for a songbird that consistently produces loud, frequent, primarily auditory signals, the Golden-crowned Sparrow (Zonotrichia atricapilla); and for 2 ptarmigan species (Lagopus spp.) that produce more intermittent, subtle, and primarily visual cues. Data were collected by multiple observers along point transects across a broad landscape in southwest Alaska, so we evaluated point-level covariates on perceptibility (observer and habitat), availability (date within season and time of day), and abundance (habitat, elevation, and slope), and included a nested point-within-transect and park-level effect. Our results suggest that this model can provide insight into the detection process during avian surveys and reduce bias in estimates of relative abundance but is best applied to surveys of species with greater availability (e.g., breeding songbirds).

Habitat influences distribution of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evans, Tyler S.; Kirchgessner, Megan S.; Eyler, B.; Ryan, Christopher W.; Walter, W. David

2015-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy that was first detected in 1967 in a captive research facility in Colorado. In the northeastern United States, CWD was first confirmed in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in 2005. Because CWD is a new and emerging disease with a spatial distribution that had yet to be assessed in the Northeast, we examined demographic, environmental, and spatial effects to determine how each related to this spatial distribution. The objectives of our study were to identify environmental and spatial effects that best described the spatial distribution of CWD in free-ranging white-tailed deer and identify areas that support deer that are at risk for CWD infection in the Northeast. We used Bayesian hierarchical modeling that incorporated demographic covariates, such as sex and age, along with environmental covariates, which included elevation, slope, riparian corridor, percent clay, and 3 landscapes (i.e., developed, forested, open). The model with the most support contained landscape covariates and spatial effects that represented clustering of CWD in adjacent grid cells. Forested landscapes had the strongest relationship with the distribution of CWD, with increased risk of CWD occurring in areas that had lesser amounts of forest. Our results will assist resource managers in understanding the spatial distribution of CWD within the study area, and in surrounding areas where CWD has yet to be found. Efficiency of disease surveillance and containment efforts can be improved by allocating resources used for surveillance in areas with deer populations that are at greatest risk for infection.

Evaluating spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality for recreational fisheries with limited catch data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Li, Yan; Wagner, Tyler; Jiao, Yan; Lorantas, Robert M.; Murphy, Cheryl

2018-01-01

Understanding the spatial and temporal variability in life-history traits among populations is essential for the management of recreational fisheries. However, valuable freshwater recreational fish species often suffer from a lack of catch information. In this study, we demonstrated the use of an approach to estimate the spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality in the absence of catch data and apply the method to riverine smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) populations in Pennsylvania, USA. Our approach included a growth analysis and a length-based analysis that estimates mortality. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, we examined spatial variability in growth and mortality by assuming parameters vary spatially but remain constant over time and temporal variability by assuming parameters vary spatially and temporally. The estimated growth and mortality of smallmouth bass showed substantial variability over time and across rivers. We explored the relationships of the estimated growth and mortality with spring water temperature and spring flow. Growth rate was likely to be positively correlated with these two factors, while young mortality was likely to be positively correlated with spring flow. The spatially and temporally varying growth and mortality suggest that smallmouth bass populations across rivers may respond differently to management plans and disturbance such as environmental contamination and land-use change. The analytical approach can be extended to other freshwater recreational species that also lack of catch data. The approach could also be useful in developing population assessments with erroneous catch data or be used as a model sensitivity scenario to verify traditional models even when catch data are available.

RatLab: an easy to use tool for place code simulations

PubMed Central

Schönfeld, Fabian; Wiskott, Laurenz

2013-01-01

In this paper we present the RatLab toolkit, a software framework designed to set up and simulate a wide range of studies targeting the encoding of space in rats. It provides open access to our modeling approach to establish place and head direction cells within unknown environments and it offers a set of parameters to allow for the easy construction of a variety of enclosures for a virtual rat as well as controlling its movement pattern over the course of experiments. Once a spatial code is formed RatLab can be used to modify aspects of the enclosure or movement pattern and plot the effect of such modifications on the spatial representation, i.e., place and head direction cell activity. The simulation is based on a hierarchical Slow Feature Analysis (SFA) network that has been shown before to establish a spatial encoding of new environments using visual input data only. RatLab encapsulates such a network, generates the visual training data, and performs all sampling automatically—with each of these stages being further configurable by the user. RatLab was written with the intention to make our SFA model more accessible to the community and to that end features a range of elements to allow for experimentation with the model without the need for specific programming skills. PMID:23908627

Possible determinants and spatial patterns of anaemia among young children in Nigeria: a Bayesian semi-parametric modelling.

PubMed

Gayawan, Ezra; Arogundade, Ekundayo D; Adebayo, Samson B

2014-03-01

Anaemia is a global public health problem affecting both developing and developed countries with major consequences for human health and socioeconomic development. This paper examines the possible relationship between Hb concentration and severity of anaemia with individual and household characteristics of children aged 6-59 months in Nigeria; and explores possible geographical variations of these outcome variables. Data on Hb concentration and severity of anaemia in children aged 6-59 months that participated in the 2010 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey were analysed. A semi-parametric model using a hierarchical Bayesian approach was adopted to examine the putative relationship of covariates of different types and possible spatial variation. Gaussian, binary and ordinal outcome variables were considered in modelling. Spatial analyses reveal a distinct North-South divide in Hb concentration of the children analysed and that states in Northern Nigeria possess a higher risk of anaemia. Other important risk factors include the household wealth index, sex of the child, whether or not the child had fever or malaria in the 2 weeks preceding the survey, and children under 24 months of age. There is a need for state level implementation of specific programmes that target vulnerable children as this can help in reversing the existing patterns.

Development of flood routing simulation system of digital Qingjiang based on integrated spatial information technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Yanbin; Zhou, You; Zhu, Yaqiong; Yuan, Xiaohui; Sælthun, N. R.

2007-11-01

Based on digital technology, flood routing simulation system development is an important component of "digital catchment". Taking QingJiang catchment as a pilot case, in-depth analysis on informatization of Qingjiang catchment management being the basis, aiming at catchment data's multi-source, - dimension, -element, -subject, -layer and -class feature, the study brings the design thought and method of "subject-point-source database" (SPSD) to design system structure in order to realize the unified management of catchments data in great quantity. Using the thought of integrated spatial information technology for reference, integrating hierarchical structure development model of digital catchment is established. The model is general framework of the flood routing simulation system analysis, design and realization. In order to satisfy the demands of flood routing three-dimensional simulation system, the object-oriented spatial data model are designed. We can analyze space-time self-adapting relation between flood routing and catchments topography, express grid data of terrain by using non-directed graph, apply breadth first search arithmetic, set up search method for the purpose of dynamically searching stream channel on the basis of simulated three-dimensional terrain. The system prototype is therefore realized. Simulation results have demonstrated that the proposed approach is feasible and effective in the application.

Reasons for Hierarchical Linear Modeling: A Reminder.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Jianjun

1999-01-01

Uses examples of hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) at local and national levels to illustrate proper applications of HLM and dummy variable regression. Raises cautions about the circumstances under which hierarchical data do not need HLM. (SLD)

Assessing Landscape Constraints on Species Abundance: Does the Neighborhood Limit Species Response to Local Habitat Conservation Programs?

PubMed Central

Jorgensen, Christopher F.; Powell, Larkin A.; Lusk, Jeffery J.; Bishop, Andrew A.; Fontaine, Joseph J.

2014-01-01

Landscapes in agricultural systems continue to undergo significant change, and the loss of biodiversity is an ever-increasing threat. Although habitat restoration is beneficial, management actions do not always result in the desired outcome. Managers must understand why management actions fail; yet, past studies have focused on assessing habitat attributes at a single spatial scale, and often fail to consider the importance of ecological mechanisms that act across spatial scales. We located survey sites across southern Nebraska, USA and conducted point counts to estimate Ring-necked Pheasant abundance, an economically important species to the region, while simultaneously quantifying landscape effects using a geographic information system. To identify suitable areas for allocating limited management resources, we assessed land cover relationships to our counts using a Bayesian binomial-Poisson hierarchical model to construct predictive Species Distribution Models of relative abundance. Our results indicated that landscape scale land cover variables severely constrained or, alternatively, facilitated the positive effects of local land management for Ring-necked Pheasants. PMID:24918779

Geometrical and topological issues in octree based automatic meshing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saxena, Mukul; Perucchio, Renato

1987-01-01

Finite element meshes derived automatically from solid models through recursive spatial subdivision schemes (octrees) can be made to inherit the hierarchical structure and the spatial addressability intrinsic to the underlying grid. These two properties, together with the geometric regularity that can also be built into the mesh, make octree based meshes ideally suited for efficient analysis and self-adaptive remeshing and reanalysis. The element decomposition of the octal cells that intersect the boundary of the domain is discussed. The problem, central to octree based meshing, is solved by combining template mapping and element extraction into a procedure that utilizes both constructive solid geometry and boundary representation techniques. Boundary cells that are not intersected by the edge of the domain boundary are easily mapped to predefined element topology. Cells containing edges (and vertices) are first transformed into a planar polyhedron and then triangulated via element extractor. The modeling environments required for the derivation of planar polyhedra and for element extraction are analyzed.

Assessing landscape constraints on species abundance: Does the neighborhood limit species response to local habitat conservation programs?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jorgensen, Christopher F.; Powell, Larkin A.; Lusk, Jeffrey J.; Bishop, Andrew A.; Fontaine, Joseph J.

2014-01-01

Landscapes in agricultural systems continue to undergo significant change, and the loss of biodiversity is an ever-increasing threat. Although habitat restoration is beneficial, management actions do not always result in the desired outcome. Managers must understand why management actions fail; yet, past studies have focused on assessing habitat attributes at a single spatial scale, and often fail to consider the importance of ecological mechanisms that act across spatial scales. We located survey sites across southern Nebraska, USA and conducted point counts to estimate Ring-necked Pheasant abundance, an economically important species to the region, while simultaneously quantifying landscape effects using a geographic information system. To identify suitable areas for allocating limited management resources, we assessed land cover relationships to our counts using a Bayesian binomial-Poisson hierarchical model to construct predictive Species Distribution Models of relative abundance. Our results indicated that landscape scale land cover variables severely constrained or, alternatively, facilitated the positive effects of local land management for Ring-necked Pheasants.

Robust Real-Time Music Transcription with a Compositional Hierarchical Model.

PubMed

Pesek, Matevž; Leonardis, Aleš; Marolt, Matija

2017-01-01

The paper presents a new compositional hierarchical model for robust music transcription. Its main features are unsupervised learning of a hierarchical representation of input data, transparency, which enables insights into the learned representation, as well as robustness and speed which make it suitable for real-world and real-time use. The model consists of multiple layers, each composed of a number of parts. The hierarchical nature of the model corresponds well to hierarchical structures in music. The parts in lower layers correspond to low-level concepts (e.g. tone partials), while the parts in higher layers combine lower-level representations into more complex concepts (tones, chords). The layers are learned in an unsupervised manner from music signals. Parts in each layer are compositions of parts from previous layers based on statistical co-occurrences as the driving force of the learning process. In the paper, we present the model's structure and compare it to other hierarchical approaches in the field of music information retrieval. We evaluate the model's performance for the multiple fundamental frequency estimation. Finally, we elaborate on extensions of the model towards other music information retrieval tasks.

Transition index maps for urban growth simulation: application of artificial neural networks, weight of evidence and fuzzy multi-criteria evaluation.

PubMed

Shafizadeh-Moghadam, Hossein; Tayyebi, Amin; Helbich, Marco

2017-06-01

Transition index maps (TIMs) are key products in urban growth simulation models. However, their operationalization is still conflicting. Our aim was to compare the prediction accuracy of three TIM-based spatially explicit land cover change (LCC) models in the mega city of Mumbai, India. These LCC models include two data-driven approaches, namely artificial neural networks (ANNs) and weight of evidence (WOE), and one knowledge-based approach which integrates an analytical hierarchical process with fuzzy membership functions (FAHP). Using the relative operating characteristics (ROC), the performance of these three LCC models were evaluated. The results showed 85%, 75%, and 73% accuracy for the ANN, FAHP, and WOE. The ANN was clearly superior compared to the other LCC models when simulating urban growth for the year 2010; hence, ANN was used to predict urban growth for 2020 and 2030. Projected urban growth maps were assessed using statistical measures, including figure of merit, average spatial distance deviation, producer accuracy, and overall accuracy. Based on our findings, we recomend ANNs as an and accurate method for simulating future patterns of urban growth.

Analyzing Multilevel Data: An Empirical Comparison of Parameter Estimates of Hierarchical Linear Modeling and Ordinary Least Squares Regression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rocconi, Louis M.

2011-01-01

Hierarchical linear models (HLM) solve the problems associated with the unit of analysis problem such as misestimated standard errors, heterogeneity of regression and aggregation bias by modeling all levels of interest simultaneously. Hierarchical linear modeling resolves the problem of misestimated standard errors by incorporating a unique random…

Retrenchment in Education: Hierarchical Decision Models for Instructional Program Termination, District Consolidations and School Closures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wholeben, Brent Edward

A number of key issues facing elementary, secondary, and postsecondary educational administrators during retrenchment require a hierarchical decision-modeling approach. This paper identifies and discusses the use of a hierarchical multiple-alternatives modeling formulation (computer-based) that compares and evaluates a group of solution…

Solving Large-scale Spatial Optimization Problems in Water Resources Management through Spatial Evolutionary Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Cai, X.

2007-12-01

A water resources system can be defined as a large-scale spatial system, within which distributed ecological system interacts with the stream network and ground water system. Water resources management, the causative factors and hence the solutions to be developed have a significant spatial dimension. This motivates a modeling analysis of water resources management within a spatial analytical framework, where data is usually geo- referenced and in the form of a map. One of the important functions of Geographic information systems (GIS) is to identify spatial patterns of environmental variables. The role of spatial patterns in water resources management has been well established in the literature particularly regarding how to design better spatial patterns for satisfying the designated objectives of water resources management. Evolutionary algorithms (EA) have been demonstrated to be successful in solving complex optimization models for water resources management due to its flexibility to incorporate complex simulation models in the optimal search procedure. The idea of combining GIS and EA motivates the development and application of spatial evolutionary algorithms (SEA). SEA assimilates spatial information into EA, and even changes the representation and operators of EA. In an EA used for water resources management, the mathematical optimization model should be modified to account the spatial patterns; however, spatial patterns are usually implicit, and it is difficult to impose appropriate patterns to spatial data. Also it is difficult to express complex spatial patterns by explicit constraints included in the EA. The GIS can help identify the spatial linkages and correlations based on the spatial knowledge of the problem. These linkages are incorporated in the fitness function for the preference of the compatible vegetation distribution. Unlike a regular GA for spatial models, the SEA employs a special hierarchical hyper-population and spatial genetic operators to represent spatial variables in a more efficient way. The hyper-population consists of a set of populations, which correspond to the spatial distributions of the individual agents (organisms). Furthermore spatial crossover and mutation operators are designed in accordance with the tree representation and then applied to both organisms and populations. This study applies the SEA to a specific problem of water resources management- maximizing the riparian vegetation coverage in accordance with the distributed groundwater system in an arid region. The vegetation coverage is impacted greatly by the nonlinear feedbacks and interactions between vegetation and groundwater and the spatial variability of groundwater. The SEA is applied to search for an optimal vegetation configuration compatible to the groundwater flow. The results from this example demonstrate the effectiveness of the SEA. Extension of the algorithm for other water resources management problems is discussed.

Social contagions on time-varying community networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Mian-Xin; Wang, Wei; Liu, Ying; Tang, Ming; Cai, Shi-Min; Zhang, Hai-Feng

2017-05-01

Time-varying community structures exist widely in real-world networks. However, previous studies on the dynamics of spreading seldom took this characteristic into account, especially those on social contagions. To study the effects of time-varying community structures on social contagions, we propose a non-Markovian social contagion model on time-varying community networks based on the activity-driven network model. A mean-field theory is developed to analyze the proposed model. Through theoretical analyses and numerical simulations, two hierarchical features of the behavior adoption processes are found. That is, when community strength is relatively large, the behavior can easily spread in one of the communities, while in the other community the spreading only occurs at higher behavioral information transmission rates. Meanwhile, in spatial-temporal evolution processes, hierarchical orders are observed for the behavior adoption. Moreover, under different information transmission rates, three distinctive patterns are demonstrated in the change of the whole network's final adoption proportion along with the growing community strength. Within a suitable range of transmission rate, an optimal community strength can be found that can maximize the final adoption proportion. Finally, compared with the average activity potential, the promoting or inhibiting of social contagions is much more influenced by the number of edges generated by active nodes.

Automatic thoracic anatomy segmentation on CT images using hierarchical fuzzy models and registration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Kaioqiong; Udupa, Jayaram K.; Odhner, Dewey; Tong, Yubing; Torigian, Drew A.

2014-03-01

This paper proposes a thoracic anatomy segmentation method based on hierarchical recognition and delineation guided by a built fuzzy model. Labeled binary samples for each organ are registered and aligned into a 3D fuzzy set representing the fuzzy shape model for the organ. The gray intensity distributions of the corresponding regions of the organ in the original image are recorded in the model. The hierarchical relation and mean location relation between different organs are also captured in the model. Following the hierarchical structure and location relation, the fuzzy shape model of different organs is registered to the given target image to achieve object recognition. A fuzzy connected delineation method is then used to obtain the final segmentation result of organs with seed points provided by recognition. The hierarchical structure and location relation integrated in the model provide the initial parameters for registration and make the recognition efficient and robust. The 3D fuzzy model combined with hierarchical affine registration ensures that accurate recognition can be obtained for both non-sparse and sparse organs. The results on real images are presented and shown to be better than a recently reported fuzzy model-based anatomy recognition strategy.

Calibrating MODIS aerosol optical depth for predicting daily PM2.5 concentrations via statistical downscaling.

PubMed

Chang, Howard H; Hu, Xuefei; Liu, Yang

2014-07-01

There has been a growing interest in the use of satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate ambient concentrations of PM2.5 (particulate matter <2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter). With their broad spatial coverage, satellite data can increase the spatial-temporal availability of air quality data beyond ground monitoring measurements and potentially improve exposure assessment for population-based health studies. This paper describes a statistical downscaling approach that brings together (1) recent advances in PM2.5 land use regression models utilizing AOD and (2) statistical data fusion techniques for combining air quality data sets that have different spatial resolutions. Statistical downscaling assumes the associations between AOD and PM2.5 concentrations to be spatially and temporally dependent and offers two key advantages. First, it enables us to use gridded AOD data to predict PM2.5 concentrations at spatial point locations. Second, the unified hierarchical framework provides straightforward uncertainty quantification in the predicted PM2.5 concentrations. The proposed methodology is applied to a data set of daily AOD values in southeastern United States during the period 2003-2005. Via cross-validation experiments, our model had an out-of-sample prediction R(2) of 0.78 and a root mean-squared error (RMSE) of 3.61 μg/m(3) between observed and predicted daily PM2.5 concentrations. This corresponds to a 10% decrease in RMSE compared with the same land use regression model without AOD as a predictor. Prediction performances of spatial-temporal interpolations to locations and on days without monitoring PM2.5 measurements were also examined.

Emergence of the interplay between hierarchy and contact splitting in biological adhesion highlighted through a hierarchical shear lag model.

PubMed

Brely, Lucas; Bosia, Federico; Pugno, Nicola M

2018-06-20

Contact unit size reduction is a widely studied mechanism as a means to improve adhesion in natural fibrillar systems, such as those observed in beetles or geckos. However, these animals also display complex structural features in the way the contact is subdivided in a hierarchical manner. Here, we study the influence of hierarchical fibrillar architectures on the load distribution over the contact elements of the adhesive system, and the corresponding delamination behaviour. We present an analytical model to derive the load distribution in a fibrillar system loaded in shear, including hierarchical splitting of contacts, i.e. a "hierarchical shear-lag" model that generalizes the well-known shear-lag model used in mechanics. The influence on the detachment process is investigated introducing a numerical procedure that allows the derivation of the maximum delamination force as a function of the considered geometry, including statistical variability of local adhesive energy. Our study suggests that contact splitting generates improved adhesion only in the ideal case of extremely compliant contacts. In real cases, to produce efficient adhesive performance, contact splitting needs to be coupled with hierarchical architectures to counterbalance high load concentrations resulting from contact unit size reduction, generating multiple delamination fronts and helping to avoid detrimental non-uniform load distributions. We show that these results can be summarized in a generalized adhesion scaling scheme for hierarchical structures, proving the beneficial effect of multiple hierarchical levels. The model can thus be used to predict the adhesive performance of hierarchical adhesive structures, as well as the mechanical behaviour of composite materials with hierarchical reinforcements.

SPATIO-TEMPORAL MODELING OF AGRICULTURAL YIELD DATA WITH AN APPLICATION TO PRICING CROP INSURANCE CONTRACTS

PubMed Central

Ozaki, Vitor A.; Ghosh, Sujit K.; Goodwin, Barry K.; Shirota, Ricardo

2009-01-01

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Paraná (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited. PMID:19890450

Identifying fish diversity hot-spots in data-poor situations.

PubMed

Fonseca, Vinícius Prado; Pennino, Maria Grazia; de Nóbrega, Marcelo Francisco; Oliveira, Jorge Eduardo Lins; de Figueiredo Mendes, Liana

2017-08-01

One of the more challenging tasks in Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) is identifying critical areas for management and conservation of fish stocks. However, this objective is difficult to achieve in data-poor situations with different sources of uncertainty. In the present study we propose a combination of hierarchical Bayesian spatial models and remotely sensed estimates of environmental variables to be used as flexible and reliable statistical tools to identify and map fish species richness and abundance hot-spots. Results show higher species aggregates in areas with higher sea floor rugosity and habitat complexity, and identify clear richness hot-spots. Our findings identify sensitive habitats through essential and easy-to-use interpretation tools, such as predictive maps, which can contribute to improving management and operability of the studied data-poor situations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hierarchical population monitoring of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Nevada and California—Identifying populations for management at the appropriate spatial scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Wann, Gregory T.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Hanser, Steven E.; Doherty, Kevin E.; O'Donnell, Michael S.; Edmunds, David R.; Espinosa, Shawn P.

2017-08-10

Population ecologists have long recognized the importance of ecological scale in understanding processes that guide observed demographic patterns for wildlife species. However, directly incorporating spatial and temporal scale into monitoring strategies that detect whether trajectories are driven by local or regional factors is challenging and rarely implemented. Identifying the appropriate scale is critical to the development of management actions that can attenuate or reverse population declines. We describe a novel example of a monitoring framework for estimating annual rates of population change for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) within a hierarchical and spatially nested structure. Specifically, we conducted Bayesian analyses on a 17-year dataset (2000–2016) of lek counts in Nevada and northeastern California to estimate annual rates of population change, and compared trends across nested spatial scales. We identified leks and larger scale populations in immediate need of management, based on the occurrence of two criteria: (1) crossing of a destabilizing threshold designed to identify significant rates of population decline at a particular nested scale; and (2) crossing of decoupling thresholds designed to identify rates of population decline at smaller scales that decouple from rates of population change at a larger spatial scale. This approach establishes how declines affected by local disturbances can be separated from those operating at larger scales (for example, broad-scale wildfire and region-wide drought). Given the threshold output from our analysis, this adaptive management framework can be implemented readily and annually to facilitate responsive and effective actions for sage-grouse populations in the Great Basin. The rules of the framework can also be modified to identify populations responding positively to management action or demonstrating strong resilience to disturbance. Similar hierarchical approaches might be beneficial for other species occupying landscapes with heterogeneous disturbance and climatic regimes.

Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio–Temporal Analysis of Climatic and Socio–Economic Determinants of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever

PubMed Central

Raghavan, Ram K.; Goodin, Douglas G.; Neises, Daniel; Anderson, Gary A.; Ganta, Roman R.

2016-01-01

This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) prevalence in four contiguous states of Midwestern United States, and to determine the impact of environmental and socio–economic factors associated with this disease. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to quantify space and time only trends and spatio–temporal interaction effect in the case reports submitted to the state health departments in the region. Various socio–economic, environmental and climatic covariates screened a priori in a bivariate procedure were added to a main–effects Bayesian model in progressive steps to evaluate important drivers of RMSF space-time patterns in the region. Our results show a steady increase in RMSF incidence over the study period to newer geographic areas, and the posterior probabilities of county-specific trends indicate clustering of high risk counties in the central and southern parts of the study region. At the spatial scale of a county, the prevalence levels of RMSF is influenced by poverty status, average relative humidity, and average land surface temperature (>35°C) in the region, and the relevance of these factors in the context of climate–change impacts on tick–borne diseases are discussed. PMID:26942604

Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Climatic and Socio-Economic Determinants of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever.

PubMed

Raghavan, Ram K; Goodin, Douglas G; Neises, Daniel; Anderson, Gary A; Ganta, Roman R

2016-01-01

This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) prevalence in four contiguous states of Midwestern United States, and to determine the impact of environmental and socio-economic factors associated with this disease. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to quantify space and time only trends and spatio-temporal interaction effect in the case reports submitted to the state health departments in the region. Various socio-economic, environmental and climatic covariates screened a priori in a bivariate procedure were added to a main-effects Bayesian model in progressive steps to evaluate important drivers of RMSF space-time patterns in the region. Our results show a steady increase in RMSF incidence over the study period to newer geographic areas, and the posterior probabilities of county-specific trends indicate clustering of high risk counties in the central and southern parts of the study region. At the spatial scale of a county, the prevalence levels of RMSF is influenced by poverty status, average relative humidity, and average land surface temperature (>35°C) in the region, and the relevance of these factors in the context of climate-change impacts on tick-borne diseases are discussed.

A Development of Nonstationary Regional Frequency Analysis Model with Large-scale Climate Information: Its Application to Korean Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jin-Young; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Kim, Hung-Soo

2015-04-01

The existing regional frequency analysis has disadvantages in that it is difficult to consider geographical characteristics in estimating areal rainfall. In this regard, this study aims to develop a hierarchical Bayesian model based nonstationary regional frequency analysis in that spatial patterns of the design rainfall with geographical information (e.g. latitude, longitude and altitude) are explicitly incorporated. This study assumes that the parameters of Gumbel (or GEV distribution) are a function of geographical characteristics within a general linear regression framework. Posterior distribution of the regression parameters are estimated by Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, and the identified functional relationship is used to spatially interpolate the parameters of the distributions by using digital elevation models (DEM) as inputs. The proposed model is applied to derive design rainfalls over the entire Han-river watershed. It was found that the proposed Bayesian regional frequency analysis model showed similar results compared to L-moment based regional frequency analysis. In addition, the model showed an advantage in terms of quantifying uncertainty of the design rainfall and estimating the area rainfall considering geographical information. Finally, comprehensive discussion on design rainfall in the context of nonstationary will be presented. KEYWORDS: Regional frequency analysis, Nonstationary, Spatial information, Bayesian Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Hierarchical model analysis of the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, John R.; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Klimstra, Jon D.; Link, William A.

2014-01-01

We used log-linear hierarchical models to analyze data from the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey. The survey has been conducted by state biologists each year since 1989 in the northeastern United States from Virginia north to New Hampshire and Vermont. Although yearly population estimates from the survey are used by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service for estimating regional waterfowl population status for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), black ducks (Anas rubripes), wood ducks (Aix sponsa), and Canada geese (Branta canadensis), they are not routinely adjusted to control for time of day effects and other survey design issues. The hierarchical model analysis permits estimation of year effects and population change while accommodating the repeated sampling of plots and controlling for time of day effects in counting. We compared population estimates from the current stratified random sample analysis to population estimates from hierarchical models with alternative model structures that describe year to year changes as random year effects, a trend with random year effects, or year effects modeled as 1-year differences. Patterns of population change from the hierarchical model results generally were similar to the patterns described by stratified random sample estimates, but significant visibility differences occurred between twilight to midday counts in all species. Controlling for the effects of time of day resulted in larger population estimates for all species in the hierarchical model analysis relative to the stratified random sample analysis. The hierarchical models also provided a convenient means of estimating population trend as derived statistics from the analysis. We detected significant declines in mallard and American black ducks and significant increases in wood ducks and Canada geese, a trend that had not been significant for 3 of these 4 species in the prior analysis. We recommend using hierarchical models for analysis of the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey.

Modelling past land use using archaeological and pollen data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirzamanbein, Behnaz; Lindström, johan; Poska, Anneli; Gaillard-Lemdahl, Marie-José

2016-04-01

Accurate maps of past land use are necessary for studying the impact of anthropogenic land-cover changes on climate and biodiversity. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct the land use using Gaussian Markov random fields. The model uses two observations sets: 1) archaeological data, representing human settlements, urbanization and agricultural findings; and 2) pollen-based land estimates of the three land-cover types Coniferous forest, Broadleaved forest and Unforested/Open land. The pollen based estimates are obtained from the REVEALS model, based on pollen counts from lakes and bogs. Our developed model uses the sparse pollen-based estimations to reconstruct the spatial continuous cover of three land cover types. Using the open-land component and the archaeological data, the extent of land-use is reconstructed. The model is applied on three time periods - centred around 1900 CE, 1000 and, 4000 BCE over Sweden for which both pollen-based estimates and archaeological data are available. To estimate the model parameters and land use, a block updated Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is applied. Using the MCMC posterior samples uncertainties in land-use predictions are computed. Due to lack of good historic land use data, model results are evaluated by cross-validation. Keywords. Spatial reconstruction, Gaussian Markov random field, Fossil pollen records, Archaeological data, Human land-use, Prediction uncertainty

A hierarchical model for estimating change in American Woodcock populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Kendall, W.L.; Kelley, J.R.; Niven, D.K.

2008-01-01

The Singing-Ground Survey (SGS) is a primary source of information on population change for American woodcock (Scolopax minor). We analyzed the SGS using a hierarchical log-linear model and compared the estimates of change and annual indices of abundance to a route regression analysis of SGS data. We also grouped SGS routes into Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) and estimated population change and annual indices using BCRs within states and provinces as strata. Based on the hierarchical model?based estimates, we concluded that woodcock populations were declining in North America between 1968 and 2006 (trend = -0.9%/yr, 95% credible interval: -1.2, -0.5). Singing-Ground Survey results are generally similar between analytical approaches, but the hierarchical model has several important advantages over the route regression. Hierarchical models better accommodate changes in survey efficiency over time and space by treating strata, years, and observers as random effects in the context of a log-linear model, providing trend estimates that are derived directly from the annual indices. We also conducted a hierarchical model analysis of woodcock data from the Christmas Bird Count and the North American Breeding Bird Survey. All surveys showed general consistency in patterns of population change, but the SGS had the shortest credible intervals. We suggest that population management and conservation planning for woodcock involving interpretation of the SGS use estimates provided by the hierarchical model.

Using graph approach for managing connectivity in integrative landscape modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabotin, Michael; Fabre, Jean-Christophe; Libres, Aline; Lagacherie, Philippe; Crevoisier, David; Moussa, Roger

2013-04-01

In cultivated landscapes, a lot of landscape elements such as field boundaries, ditches or banks strongly impact water flows, mass and energy fluxes. At the watershed scale, these impacts are strongly conditionned by the connectivity of these landscape elements. An accurate representation of these elements and of their complex spatial arrangements is therefore of great importance for modelling and predicting these impacts.We developped in the framework of the OpenFLUID platform (Software Environment for Modelling Fluxes in Landscapes) a digital landscape representation that takes into account the spatial variabilities and connectivities of diverse landscape elements through the application of the graph theory concepts. The proposed landscape representation consider spatial units connected together to represent the flux exchanges or any other information exchanges. Each spatial unit of the landscape is represented as a node of a graph and relations between units as graph connections. The connections are of two types - parent-child connection and up/downstream connection - which allows OpenFLUID to handle hierarchical graphs. Connections can also carry informations and graph evolution during simulation is possible (connections or elements modifications). This graph approach allows a better genericity on landscape representation, a management of complex connections and facilitate development of new landscape representation algorithms. Graph management is fully operational in OpenFLUID for developers or modelers ; and several graph tools are available such as graph traversal algorithms or graph displays. Graph representation can be managed i) manually by the user (for example in simple catchments) through XML-based files in easily editable and readable format or ii) by using methods of the OpenFLUID-landr library which is an OpenFLUID library relying on common open-source spatial libraries (ogr vector, geos topologic vector and gdal raster libraries). OpenFLUID-landr library has been developed in order i) to be used with no GIS expert skills needed (common gis formats can be read and simplified spatial management is provided), ii) to easily develop adapted rules of landscape discretization and graph creation to follow spatialized model requirements and iii) to allow model developers to manage dynamic and complex spatial topology. Graph management in OpenFLUID are shown with i) examples of hydrological modelizations on complex farmed landscapes and ii) the new implementation of Geo-MHYDAS tool based on the OpenFLUID-landr library, which allows to discretize a landscape and create graph structure for the MHYDAS model requirements.

[Human body meridian spatial decision support system for clinical treatment and teaching of acupuncture and moxibustion].

PubMed

Wu, Dehua

2016-01-01

The spatial position and distribution of human body meridian are expressed limitedly in the decision support system (DSS) of acupuncture and moxibustion at present, which leads to the failure to give the effective quantitative analysis on the spatial range and the difficulty for the decision-maker to provide a realistic spatial decision environment. Focusing on the limit spatial expression in DSS of acupuncture and moxibustion, it was proposed that on the basis of the geographic information system, in association of DSS technology, the design idea was developed on the human body meridian spatial DSS. With the 4-layer service-oriented architecture adopted, the data center integrated development platform was taken as the system development environment. The hierarchical organization was done for the spatial data of human body meridian via the directory tree. The structured query language (SQL) server was used to achieve the unified management of spatial data and attribute data. The technologies of architecture, configuration and plug-in development model were integrated to achieve the data inquiry, buffer analysis and program evaluation of the human body meridian spatial DSS. The research results show that the human body meridian spatial DSS could reflect realistically the spatial characteristics of the spatial position and distribution of human body meridian and met the constantly changeable demand of users. It has the powerful spatial analysis function and assists with the scientific decision in clinical treatment and teaching of acupuncture and moxibustion. It is the new attempt to the informatization research of human body meridian.

A Hierarchical Multivariate Bayesian Approach to Ensemble Model output Statistics in Atmospheric Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-01

efficacy of statistical post-processing methods downstream of these dynamical model components with a hierarchical multivariate Bayesian approach to...Bayesian hierarchical modeling, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods , Metropolis algorithm, machine learning, atmospheric prediction 15. NUMBER OF PAGES...scale processes. However, this dissertation explores the efficacy of statistical post-processing methods downstream of these dynamical model components

A Hierarchical Modeling Approach to Data Analysis and Study Design in a Multi-Site Experimental fMRI Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhou, Bo; Konstorum, Anna; Duong, Thao; Tieu, Kinh H.; Wells, William M.; Brown, Gregory G.; Stern, Hal S.; Shahbaba, Babak

2013-01-01

We propose a hierarchical Bayesian model for analyzing multi-site experimental fMRI studies. Our method takes the hierarchical structure of the data (subjects are nested within sites, and there are multiple observations per subject) into account and allows for modeling between-site variation. Using posterior predictive model checking and model…

Distinctive signatures of recursion.

PubMed

Martins, Maurício Dias

2012-07-19

Although recursion has been hypothesized to be a necessary capacity for the evolution of language, the multiplicity of definitions being used has undermined the broader interpretation of empirical results. I propose that only a definition focused on representational abilities allows the prediction of specific behavioural traits that enable us to distinguish recursion from non-recursive iteration and from hierarchical embedding: only subjects able to represent recursion, i.e. to represent different hierarchical dependencies (related by parenthood) with the same set of rules, are able to generalize and produce new levels of embedding beyond those specified a priori (in the algorithm or in the input). The ability to use such representations may be advantageous in several domains: action sequencing, problem-solving, spatial navigation, social navigation and for the emergence of conventionalized communication systems. The ability to represent contiguous hierarchical levels with the same rules may lead subjects to expect unknown levels and constituents to behave similarly, and this prior knowledge may bias learning positively. Finally, a new paradigm to test for recursion is presented. Preliminary results suggest that the ability to represent recursion in the spatial domain recruits both visual and verbal resources. Implications regarding language evolution are discussed.

Spatio-temporal modelling of rainfall in the Murray-Darling Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowak, Gen; Welsh, A. H.; O'Neill, T. J.; Feng, Lingbing

2018-02-01

The Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) is a large geographical region in southeastern Australia that contains many rivers and creeks, including Australia's three longest rivers, the Murray, the Murrumbidgee and the Darling. Understanding rainfall patterns in the MDB is very important due to the significant impact major events such as droughts and floods have on agricultural and resource productivity. We propose a model for modelling a set of monthly rainfall data obtained from stations in the MDB and for producing predictions in both the spatial and temporal dimensions. The model is a hierarchical spatio-temporal model fitted to geographical data that utilises both deterministic and data-derived components. Specifically, rainfall data at a given location are modelled as a linear combination of these deterministic and data-derived components. A key advantage of the model is that it is fitted in a step-by-step fashion, enabling appropriate empirical choices to be made at each step.

A multi-scalar approach for modelling river channel change in the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downs, Peter; Piégay, Hervé; Piffady, Jeremy; Valette, Laurent; Vaudor, Lise

2017-04-01

Adjustments in river channel morphology during the 'Anthropocene' arise as a cumulative impact from the influence of numerous natural and human stressors operating at multiple spatial and temporal scales. However, the research requirement for data on impacts at multiple scales, and at sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution to determine reach-level effect, largely prevented such studies until recent improvements in digital technologies and data availability. A meta-analysis of recent cumulative impact studies indicates that the analytical component is still overwhelmingly interpretative, with cause-and-effect reasoning based largely on temporal synchronicity and spatial proximity, whereas our conceptual understanding of adjustment processes is far more nuanced. We propose, instead, that studies of cumulative impact should be underpinned by an analytical model of cause and effect, partly to test and enhance our predictive capabilities and allow scenario setting, but also to learn about the relative sensitivities involved in different parts of the model and thus to prioritize future research endeavours. Our requirements are that the model should be inherently designed to detect reach-level changes over Anthropocene timescales, be capable of integrating co-existing and hierarchical human and natural pressures on fluvial systems, be able to accommodate time-lagged effects and upstream-downstream connectivity, and be based on an explicit conceptual model that can be refined as our process understanding improves. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) offer some potential in this regard and are becoming an increasingly popular option for dealing with complex, multi-scalar relationships in ecology and other environmental sciences. BBNs consist of a conceptual model of nodes and edges (i.e., graph theory) that qualitatively describe the structure of causal relationships between chains of variables, and a quantitative expression of the relative strength of the hypothesized relationships, described by probability distributions. BBNs offer the flexibility of incorporating different variables taken at various scales from within the catchment (thus accommodating geographical and historical differences in climate and human occupation), can be implemented even when there is some missing data, and can be rapidly optimised to improve data fit by modifying individual parts of the internal probability distributions. They are particularly well-suited to hierarchical cause and effect structuring because data uncertainties are inherently 'internalised' in the development of the model's structure, thus potentially mediating the overall error in a complex chain of relationships. We detail tests in progress to develop models for channel width and depth changes for the main stem of the Santa Clara River, which drains a 4,200 km2 catchment in coastal Southern California.

Intelligent multiagent coordination based on reinforcement hierarchical neuro-fuzzy models.

PubMed

Mendoza, Leonardo Forero; Vellasco, Marley; Figueiredo, Karla

2014-12-01

This paper presents the research and development of two hybrid neuro-fuzzy models for the hierarchical coordination of multiple intelligent agents. The main objective of the models is to have multiple agents interact intelligently with each other in complex systems. We developed two new models of coordination for intelligent multiagent systems, which integrates the Reinforcement Learning Hierarchical Neuro-Fuzzy model with two proposed coordination mechanisms: the MultiAgent Reinforcement Learning Hierarchical Neuro-Fuzzy with a market-driven coordination mechanism (MA-RL-HNFP-MD) and the MultiAgent Reinforcement Learning Hierarchical Neuro-Fuzzy with graph coordination (MA-RL-HNFP-CG). In order to evaluate the proposed models and verify the contribution of the proposed coordination mechanisms, two multiagent benchmark applications were developed: the pursuit game and the robot soccer simulation. The results obtained demonstrated that the proposed coordination mechanisms greatly improve the performance of the multiagent system when compared with other strategies.

The fourth dimension of life: fractal geometry and allometric scaling of organisms.

PubMed

West, G B; Brown, J H; Enquist, B J

1999-06-04

Fractal-like networks effectively endow life with an additional fourth spatial dimension. This is the origin of quarter-power scaling that is so pervasive in biology. Organisms have evolved hierarchical branching networks that terminate in size-invariant units, such as capillaries, leaves, mitochondria, and oxidase molecules. Natural selection has tended to maximize both metabolic capacity, by maximizing the scaling of exchange surface areas, and internal efficiency, by minimizing the scaling of transport distances and times. These design principles are independent of detailed dynamics and explicit models and should apply to virtually all organisms.

Understanding seasonal variability of uncertainty in hydrological prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, M.; Wang, Q. J.

2012-04-01

Understanding uncertainty in hydrological prediction can be highly valuable for improving the reliability of streamflow prediction. In this study, a monthly water balance model, WAPABA, in a Bayesian joint probability with error models are presented to investigate the seasonal dependency of prediction error structure. A seasonal invariant error model, analogous to traditional time series analysis, uses constant parameters for model error and account for no seasonal variations. In contrast, a seasonal variant error model uses a different set of parameters for bias, variance and autocorrelation for each individual calendar month. Potential connection amongst model parameters from similar months is not considered within the seasonal variant model and could result in over-fitting and over-parameterization. A hierarchical error model further applies some distributional restrictions on model parameters within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. An iterative algorithm is implemented to expedite the maximum a posterior (MAP) estimation of a hierarchical error model. Three error models are applied to forecasting streamflow at a catchment in southeast Australia in a cross-validation analysis. This study also presents a number of statistical measures and graphical tools to compare the predictive skills of different error models. From probability integral transform histograms and other diagnostic graphs, the hierarchical error model conforms better to reliability when compared to the seasonal invariant error model. The hierarchical error model also generally provides the most accurate mean prediction in terms of the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient and the best probabilistic prediction in terms of the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). The model parameters of the seasonal variant error model are very sensitive to each cross validation, while the hierarchical error model produces much more robust and reliable model parameters. Furthermore, the result of the hierarchical error model shows that most of model parameters are not seasonal variant except for error bias. The seasonal variant error model is likely to use more parameters than necessary to maximize the posterior likelihood. The model flexibility and robustness indicates that the hierarchical error model has great potential for future streamflow predictions.

Probabilistic assessment of compliance with the numerical criteria for fecal coliforms in rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cha, YoonKyung

2017-04-01

Most guidelines for assessing fecal contamination in surface waters suggest that a waterbody is impaired if a certain percent or the geometric mean of samples exceeds the numerical criteria for fecal indicator organisms. However, this raw score approach is not able to account for the uncertainty and variability in the sample statistics. In a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach, the uncertainty in the mean parameter is expressed as a posterior distribution, and the probability of not violating the criterion is referred to as the confidence of compliance (COC). Further, the spatiotemporal variability in the mean parameter can be quantified by imposing the hierarchical structure on the model. The monitoring data spanning 91 sites across the four major rivers (the Han, Geum, Yeongsan, and Nakdong) of South Korea for the years 2007-2016 were used. The Bayesian hierarchical model was developed for each river to predict the COC with the criteria for fecal coliforms. The established criteria for fecal coliforms are less than 10, 100, 200, and 1,000 CFU/100mL in the river whose water quality goal corresponds to Class Ia, Ib, II, and III, respectively. The model results suggested that the COC varied significantly by site, ranging from 0.0 to 98.9 percent across the four rivers. In the Geum, Yeongsan, and Nakdong Rivers, COC values in the upper river sections were substantially lower than those in the upper river sections. The model suggested that for all four rivers the spatial component, compared with annual and seasonal components, made the largest contribution to the variability in mean fecal coliforms. In all four rivers, mean levels for fecal coliform during the summer (July to September) were distinctly higher than those during other seasons. A decreasing pattern was clearly shown in the Yeongsan River over the recent decade, while monotonic increases or decreases were not shown in other three rivers.

A Comparison of a Relational and Nested-Relational IDEF0 Data Model

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-03-01

develop, some of the problems inherent iu the hierarchical 5 model were circumvented by the more sophisticated network model. Like the hierarchical model...uetwork database consists of a collection of records connected via links. Unlike the hierarchical model, the network model allows arbitrary graphs as...opposed to trees. Thus, each node may have everal owners and may, in turn, own any number of other records. The network model provides a lchanism by

The Hierarchical Distribution of the Young Stellar Clusters in Six Local Star-forming Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grasha, K.; Calzetti, D.; Adamo, A.; Kim, H.; Elmegreen, B. G.; Gouliermis, D. A.; Dale, D. A.; Fumagalli, M.; Grebel, E. K.; Johnson, K. E.; Kahre, L.; Kennicutt, R. C.; Messa, M.; Pellerin, A.; Ryon, J. E.; Smith, L. J.; Shabani, F.; Thilker, D.; Ubeda, L.

2017-05-01

We present a study of the hierarchical clustering of the young stellar clusters in six local (3-15 Mpc) star-forming galaxies using Hubble Space Telescope broadband WFC3/UVIS UV and optical images from the Treasury Program LEGUS (Legacy ExtraGalactic UV Survey). We identified 3685 likely clusters and associations, each visually classified by their morphology, and we use the angular two-point correlation function to study the clustering of these stellar systems. We find that the spatial distribution of the young clusters and associations are clustered with respect to each other, forming large, unbound hierarchical star-forming complexes that are in general very young. The strength of the clustering decreases with increasing age of the star clusters and stellar associations, becoming more homogeneously distributed after ˜40-60 Myr and on scales larger than a few hundred parsecs. In all galaxies, the associations exhibit a global behavior that is distinct and more strongly correlated from compact clusters. Thus, populations of clusters are more evolved than associations in terms of their spatial distribution, traveling significantly from their birth site within a few tens of Myr, whereas associations show evidence of disruption occurring very quickly after their formation. The clustering of the stellar systems resembles that of a turbulent interstellar medium that drives the star formation process, correlating the components in unbound star-forming complexes in a hierarchical manner, dispersing shortly after formation, suggestive of a single, continuous mode of star formation across all galaxies.

Hierarchical star formation across the grand-design spiral NGC 1566

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouliermis, Dimitrios A.; Elmegreen, Bruce G.; Elmegreen, Debra M.; Calzetti, Daniela; Cignoni, Michele; Gallagher, John S., III; Kennicutt, Robert C.; Klessen, Ralf S.; Sabbi, Elena; Thilker, David; Ubeda, Leonardo; Aloisi, Alessandra; Adamo, Angela; Cook, David O.; Dale, Daniel; Grasha, Kathryn; Grebel, Eva K.; Johnson, Kelsey E.; Sacchi, Elena; Shabani, Fayezeh; Smith, Linda J.; Wofford, Aida

2017-06-01

We investigate how star formation is spatially organized in the grand-design spiral NGC 1566 from deep Hubble Space Telescope photometry with the Legacy ExtraGalactic UV Survey. Our contour-based clustering analysis reveals 890 distinct stellar conglomerations at various levels of significance. These star-forming complexes are organized in a hierarchical fashion with the larger congregations consisting of smaller structures, which themselves fragment into even smaller and more compact stellar groupings. Their size distribution, covering a wide range in length-scales, shows a power law as expected from scale-free processes. We explain this shape with a simple 'fragmentation and enrichment' model. The hierarchical morphology of the complexes is confirmed by their mass-size relation that can be represented by a power law with a fractional exponent, analogous to that determined for fractal molecular clouds. The surface stellar density distribution of the complexes shows a lognormal shape similar to that for supersonic non-gravitating turbulent gas. Between 50 and 65 per cent of the recently formed stars, as well as about 90 per cent of the young star clusters, are found inside the stellar complexes, located along the spiral arms. We find an age difference between young stars inside the complexes and those in their direct vicinity in the arms of at least 10 Myr. This time-scale may relate to the minimum time for stellar evaporation, although we cannot exclude the in situ formation of stars. As expected, star formation preferentially occurs in spiral arms. Our findings reveal turbulent-driven hierarchical star formation along the arms of a grand-design galaxy.

Bayesian hierarchical modelling of continuous non‐negative longitudinal data with a spike at zero: An application to a study of birds visiting gardens in winter

PubMed Central

Buckland, Stephen T.; King, Ruth; Toms, Mike P.

2015-01-01

The development of methods for dealing with continuous data with a spike at zero has lagged behind those for overdispersed or zero‐inflated count data. We consider longitudinal ecological data corresponding to an annual average of 26 weekly maximum counts of birds, and are hence effectively continuous, bounded below by zero but also with a discrete mass at zero. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical Tweedie regression model that can directly accommodate the excess number of zeros common to this type of data, whilst accounting for both spatial and temporal correlation. Implementation of the model is conducted in a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework, using reversible jump MCMC to explore uncertainty across both parameter and model spaces. This regression modelling framework is very flexible and removes the need to make strong assumptions about mean‐variance relationships a priori. It can also directly account for the spike at zero, whilst being easily applicable to other types of data and other model formulations. Whilst a correlative study such as this cannot prove causation, our results suggest that an increase in an avian predator may have led to an overall decrease in the number of one of its prey species visiting garden feeding stations in the United Kingdom. This may reflect a change in behaviour of house sparrows to avoid feeding stations frequented by sparrowhawks, or a reduction in house sparrow population size as a result of sparrowhawk increase. PMID:25737026

Using estimates of natural variation to detect ecologically important change in forest spatial patterns: a case study, Cascade Range, eastern Washington.

Treesearch

Paul F. Hessburg; Bradley G. Smith; R. Brion Salter

1999-01-01

Using hierarchical clustering techniques, we grouped subwatersheds on the eastern slope of the Cascade Range in Washington State into ecological subregions by similarity of area in potential vegetation and climate attributes. We then built spatially continuous historical and current vegetation maps for 48 randomly selected subwatersheds from interpretations of 1938-49...

Estimating under-five mortality in space and time in a developing world context.

PubMed

Wakefield, Jon; Fuglstad, Geir-Arne; Riebler, Andrea; Godwin, Jessica; Wilson, Katie; Clark, Samuel J

2018-01-01

Accurate estimates of the under-five mortality rate in a developing world context are a key barometer of the health of a nation. This paper describes a new model to analyze survey data on mortality in this context. We are interested in both spatial and temporal description, that is wishing to estimate under-five mortality rate across regions and years and to investigate the association between the under-five mortality rate and spatially varying covariate surfaces. We illustrate the methodology by producing yearly estimates for subnational areas in Kenya over the period 1980-2014 using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, which use stratified cluster sampling. We use a binomial likelihood with fixed effects for the urban/rural strata and random effects for the clustering to account for the complex survey design. Smoothing is carried out using Bayesian hierarchical models with continuous spatial and temporally discrete components. A key component of the model is an offset to adjust for bias due to the effects of HIV epidemics. Substantively, there has been a sharp decline in Kenya in the under-five mortality rate in the period 1980-2014, but large variability in estimated subnational rates remains. A priority for future research is understanding this variability. In exploratory work, we examine whether a variety of spatial covariate surfaces can explain the variability in under-five mortality rate. Temperature, precipitation, a measure of malaria infection prevalence, and a measure of nearness to cities were candidates for inclusion in the covariate model, but the interplay between space, time, and covariates is complex.

Intraoperative virtual brain counseling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Zhaowei; Grosky, William I.; Zamorano, Lucia J.; Muzik, Otto; Diaz, Fernando

1997-06-01

Our objective is to offer online real-tim e intelligent guidance to the neurosurgeon. Different from traditional image-guidance technologies that offer intra-operative visualization of medical images or atlas images, virtual brain counseling goes one step further. It can distinguish related brain structures and provide information about them intra-operatively. Virtual brain counseling is the foundation for surgical planing optimization and on-line surgical reference. It can provide a warning system that alerts the neurosurgeon if the chosen trajectory will pass through eloquent brain areas. In order to fulfill this objective, tracking techniques are involved for intra- operativity. Most importantly, a 3D virtual brian environment, different from traditional 3D digitized atlases, is an object-oriented model of the brain that stores information about different brain structures together with their elated information. An object-oriented hierarchical hyper-voxel space (HHVS) is introduced to integrate anatomical and functional structures. Spatial queries based on position of interest, line segment of interest, and volume of interest are introduced in this paper. The virtual brain environment is integrated with existing surgical pre-planning and intra-operative tracking systems to provide information for planning optimization and on-line surgical guidance. The neurosurgeon is alerted automatically if the planned treatment affects any critical structures. Architectures such as HHVS and algorithms, such as spatial querying, normalizing, and warping are presented in the paper. A prototype has shown that the virtual brain is intuitive in its hierarchical 3D appearance. It also showed that HHVS, as the key structure for virtual brain counseling, efficiently integrates multi-scale brain structures based on their spatial relationships.This is a promising development for optimization of treatment plans and online surgical intelligent guidance.

Graph configuration model based evaluation of the education-occupation match

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

To study education—occupation matchings we developed a bipartite network model of education to work transition and a graph configuration model based metric. We studied the career paths of 15 thousand Hungarian students based on the integrated database of the National Tax Administration, the National Health Insurance Fund, and the higher education information system of the Hungarian Government. A brief analysis of gender pay gap and the spatial distribution of over-education is presented to demonstrate the background of the research and the resulted open dataset. We highlighted the hierarchical and clustered structure of the career paths based on the multi-resolution analysis of the graph modularity. The results of the cluster analysis can support policymakers to fine-tune the fragmented program structure of higher education. PMID:29509783

Graph configuration model based evaluation of the education-occupation match.

PubMed

Gadar, Laszlo; Abonyi, Janos

2018-01-01

To study education-occupation matchings we developed a bipartite network model of education to work transition and a graph configuration model based metric. We studied the career paths of 15 thousand Hungarian students based on the integrated database of the National Tax Administration, the National Health Insurance Fund, and the higher education information system of the Hungarian Government. A brief analysis of gender pay gap and the spatial distribution of over-education is presented to demonstrate the background of the research and the resulted open dataset. We highlighted the hierarchical and clustered structure of the career paths based on the multi-resolution analysis of the graph modularity. The results of the cluster analysis can support policymakers to fine-tune the fragmented program structure of higher education.

Effective Connectivity Reveals Right-Hemisphere Dominance in Audiospatial Perception: Implications for Models of Spatial Neglect

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl J.; Mattingley, Jason B.; Roepstorff, Andreas; Garrido, Marta I.

2014-01-01

Detecting the location of salient sounds in the environment rests on the brain's ability to use differences in sounds arriving at both ears. Functional neuroimaging studies in humans indicate that the left and right auditory hemispaces are coded asymmetrically, with a rightward attentional bias that reflects spatial attention in vision. Neuropsychological observations in patients with spatial neglect have led to the formulation of two competing models: the orientation bias and right-hemisphere dominance models. The orientation bias model posits a symmetrical mapping between one side of the sensorium and the contralateral hemisphere, with mutual inhibition of the ipsilateral hemisphere. The right-hemisphere dominance model introduces a functional asymmetry in the brain's coding of space: the left hemisphere represents the right side, whereas the right hemisphere represents both sides of the sensorium. We used Dynamic Causal Modeling of effective connectivity and Bayesian model comparison to adjudicate between these alternative network architectures, based on human electroencephalographic data acquired during an auditory location oddball paradigm. Our results support a hemispheric asymmetry in a frontoparietal network that conforms to the right-hemisphere dominance model. We show that, within this frontoparietal network, forward connectivity increases selectively in the hemisphere contralateral to the side of sensory stimulation. We interpret this finding in light of hierarchical predictive coding as a selective increase in attentional gain, which is mediated by feedforward connections that carry precision-weighted prediction errors during perceptual inference. This finding supports the disconnection hypothesis of unilateral neglect and has implications for theories of its etiology. PMID:24695717

Hierarchical modeling of an invasive spread: The eurasian collared-dove streptopelia decaocto in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bled, F.; Royle, J. Andrew; Cam, E.

2011-01-01

Invasive species are regularly claimed as the second threat to biodiversity. To apply a relevant response to the potential consequences associated with invasions (e.g., emphasize management efforts to prevent new colonization or to eradicate the species in places where it has already settled), it is essential to understand invasion mechanisms and dynamics. Quantifying and understanding what influences rates of spatial spread is a key research area for invasion theory. In this paper, we develop a model to account for occupancy dynamics of an invasive species. Our model extends existing models to accommodate several elements of invasive processes; we chose the framework of hierarchical modeling to assess site occupancy status during an invasion. First, we explicitly accounted for spatial structure and how distance among sites and position relative to one another affect the invasion spread. In particular, we accounted for the possibility of directional propagation and provided a way of estimating the direction of this possible spread. Second, we considered the influence of local density on site occupancy. Third, we decided to split the colonization process into two subprocesses, initial colonization and recolonization, which may be ground-breaking because these subprocesses may exhibit different relationships with environmental variations (such as density variation) or colonization history (e.g., initial colonization might facilitate further colonization events). Finally, our model incorporates imperfection in detection, which might be a source of substantial bias in estimating population parameters. We focused on the case of the Eurasian Collared-Dove (Streptopelia decaocto) and its invasion of the United States since its introduction in the early 1980s, using data from the North American BBS (Breeding Bird Survey). The Eurasian Collared-Dove is one of the most successful invasive species, at least among terrestrial vertebrates. Our model provided estimation of the spread direction consistent with empirical observations. Site persistence probability exhibits a quadratic response to density. We also succeeded at detecting differences in the relationship between density and initial colonization vs. recolonization probabilities. We provide a map of sites that may be colonized in the future as an example of possible practical application of our work. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

An evaluation of the Bayesian approach to fitting the N-mixture model for use with pseudo-replicated count data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toribo, S.G.; Gray, B.R.; Liang, S.

2011-01-01

The N-mixture model proposed by Royle in 2004 may be used to approximate the abundance and detection probability of animal species in a given region. In 2006, Royle and Dorazio discussed the advantages of using a Bayesian approach in modelling animal abundance and occurrence using a hierarchical N-mixture model. N-mixture models assume replication on sampling sites, an assumption that may be violated when the site is not closed to changes in abundance during the survey period or when nominal replicates are defined spatially. In this paper, we studied the robustness of a Bayesian approach to fitting the N-mixture model for pseudo-replicated count data. Our simulation results showed that the Bayesian estimates for abundance and detection probability are slightly biased when the actual detection probability is small and are sensitive to the presence of extra variability within local sites.

Fear of Failure, 2x2 Achievement Goal and Self-Handicapping: An Examination of the Hierarchical Model of Achievement Motivation in Physical Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Lung Hung; Wu, Chia-Huei; Kee, Ying Hwa; Lin, Meng-Shyan; Shui, Shang-Hsueh

2009-01-01

In this study, the hierarchical model of achievement motivation [Elliot, A. J. (1997). Integrating the "classic" and "contemporary" approaches to achievement motivation: A hierarchical model of approach and avoidance achievement motivation. In P. Pintrich & M. Maehr (Eds.), "Advances in motivation and achievement"…

A Hierarchical Rater Model for Constructed Responses, with a Signal Detection Rater Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeCarlo, Lawrence T.; Kim, YoungKoung; Johnson, Matthew S.

2011-01-01

The hierarchical rater model (HRM) recognizes the hierarchical structure of data that arises when raters score constructed response items. In this approach, raters' scores are not viewed as being direct indicators of examinee proficiency but rather as indicators of essay quality; the (latent categorical) quality of an examinee's essay in turn…

Complex Applications of HLM in Studies of Science and Mathematics Achievement: Cross-Classified Random Effects Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moreno, Mario; Harwell, Michael; Guzey, S. Selcen; Phillips, Alison; Moore, Tamara J.

2016-01-01

Hierarchical linear models have become a familiar method for accounting for a hierarchical data structure in studies of science and mathematics achievement. This paper illustrates the use of cross-classified random effects models (CCREMs), which are likely less familiar. The defining characteristic of CCREMs is a hierarchical data structure…

Some practicable applications of quadtree data structures/representation in astronomy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pasztor, L.

1992-01-01

Development of quadtree as hierarchical data structuring technique for representing spatial data (like points, regions, surfaces, lines, curves, volumes, etc.) has been motivated to a large extent by storage requirements of images, maps, and other multidimensional (spatially structured) data. For many spatial algorithms, time-efficiency of quadtrees in terms of execution may be as important as their space-efficiency concerning storage conditions. Briefly, the quadtree is a class of hierarchical data structures which is based on the recursive partition of a square region into quadrants and sub-quadrants until a predefined limit. Beyond the wide applicability of quadtrees in image processing, spatial information analysis, and building digital databases (processes becoming ordinary for the astronomical community), there may be numerous further applications in astronomy. Some of these practicable applications based on quadtree representation of astronomical data are presented and suggested for further considerations. Examples are shown for use of point as well as region quadtrees. Statistics of different leaf and non-leaf nodes (homogeneous and heterogeneous sub-quadrants respectively) at different levels may provide useful information on spatial structure of astronomical data in question. By altering the principle guiding the decomposition process, different types of spatial data may be focused on. Finally, a sampling method based on quadtree representation of an image is proposed which may prove to be efficient in the elaboration of sampling strategy in a region where observations were carried out previously either with different resolution or/and in different bands.

Task-level feedback can explain temporal recruitment of spatially fixed muscle synergies throughout postural perturbations

PubMed Central

Safavynia, Seyed A.

2012-01-01

Recent evidence suggests that complex spatiotemporal patterns of muscle activity can be explained with a low-dimensional set of muscle synergies or M-modes. While it is clear that both spatial and temporal aspects of muscle coordination may be low dimensional, constraints on spatial versus temporal features of muscle coordination likely involve different neural control mechanisms. We hypothesized that the low-dimensional spatial and temporal features of muscle coordination are independent of each other. We further hypothesized that in reactive feedback tasks, spatially fixed muscle coordination patterns—or muscle synergies—are hierarchically recruited via time-varying neural commands based on delayed task-level feedback. We explicitly compared the ability of spatially fixed (SF) versus temporally fixed (TF) muscle synergies to reconstruct the entire time course of muscle activity during postural responses to anterior-posterior support-surface translations. While both SF and TF muscle synergies could account for EMG variability in a postural task, SF muscle synergies produced more consistent and physiologically interpretable results than TF muscle synergies during postural responses to perturbations. Moreover, a majority of SF muscle synergies were consistent in structure when extracted from epochs throughout postural responses. Temporal patterns of SF muscle synergy recruitment were well-reconstructed by delayed feedback of center of mass (CoM) kinematics and reproduced EMG activity of multiple muscles. Consistent with the idea that independent and hierarchical low-dimensional neural control structures define spatial and temporal patterns of muscle activity, our results suggest that CoM kinematics are a task variable used to recruit SF muscle synergies for feedback control of balance. PMID:21957219

Elucidating spatially explicit behavioral landscapes in the Willow Flycatcher

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bakian, Amanda V.; Sullivan, Kimberly A.; Paxton, Eben H.

2012-01-01

Animal resource selection is a complex, hierarchical decision-making process, yet resource selection studies often focus on the presence and absence of an animal rather than the animal's behavior at resource use locations. In this study, we investigate foraging and vocalization resource selection in a population of Willow Flycatchers, Empidonax traillii adastus, using Bayesian spatial generalized linear models. These models produce “behavioral landscapes” in which space use and resource selection is linked through behavior. Radio telemetry locations were collected from 35 adult Willow Flycatchers (n = 14 males, n = 13 females, and n = 8 unknown sex) over the 2003 and 2004 breeding seasons at Fish Creek, Utah. Results from the 2-stage modeling approach showed that habitat type, perch position, and distance from the arithmetic mean of the home range (in males) or nest site (in females) were important factors influencing foraging and vocalization resource selection. Parameter estimates from the individual-level models indicated high intraspecific variation in the use of the various habitat types and perch heights for foraging and vocalization. On the population level, Willow Flycatchers selected riparian habitat over other habitat types for vocalizing but used multiple habitat types for foraging including mountain shrub, young riparian, and upland forest. Mapping of observed and predicted foraging and vocalization resource selection indicated that the behavior often occurred in disparate areas of the home range. This suggests that multiple core areas may exist in the home ranges of individual flycatchers, and demonstrates that the behavioral landscape modeling approach can be applied to identify spatially and behaviorally distinct core areas. The behavioral landscape approach is applicable to a wide range of animal taxa and can be used to improve our understanding of the spatial context of behavior and resource selection.

Fractional Diffusion Analysis of the Electromagnetic Field In Fractured Media Part II: 2.5-D Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, J.; Everett, M. E.; Weiss, C. J.

2012-12-01

A 2.5D finite difference (FD) frequency-domain modeling algorithm based on the theory of fractional diffusion of electromagnetic (EM) fields generated by a loop source lying above a fractured geological medium is addressed in this paper. The presence of fractures in the subsurface, usually containing highly conductive pore fluids, gives rise to spatially hierarchical flow paths of induced EM eddy currents. The diffusion of EM eddy currents in such formations is anomalous, generalizing the classical Gaussian process described by the conventional Maxwell equations. Based on the continuous time random walk (CTRW) theory, the diffusion of EM eddy currents in a rough medium is governed by the fractional Maxwell equations. Here, we model the EM response of a 2D subsurface containing fractured zones, with a 3D loop source, which results the so-called 2.5D model geometry. The governing equation in the frequency domain is converted using Fourier transform into k domain along the strike direction (along which the model conductivity doesn't vary). The resulting equation system is solved by the multifrontal massively parallel solver (MUMPS). The data obtained is then converted back to spatial domain and the time domain. We find excellent agreement between the FD and analytic solutions for a rough halfspace model. Then FD solutions are calculated for a 2D fault zone model with variable conductivity and roughness. We compare the results with responses from several classical models and explore the relationship between the roughness and the spatial density of the fracture distribution.

An Analysis of Turkey's PISA 2015 Results Using Two-Level Hierarchical Linear Modelling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atas, Dogu; Karadag, Özge

2017-01-01

In the field of education, most of the data collected are multi-level structured. Cities, city based schools, school based classes and finally students in the classrooms constitute a hierarchical structure. Hierarchical linear models give more accurate results compared to standard models when the data set has a structure going far as individuals,…

The Analysis of Image Segmentation Hierarchies with a Graph-based Knowledge Discovery System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tilton, James C.; Cooke, diane J.; Ketkar, Nikhil; Aksoy, Selim

2008-01-01

Currently available pixel-based analysis techniques do not effectively extract the information content from the increasingly available high spatial resolution remotely sensed imagery data. A general consensus is that object-based image analysis (OBIA) is required to effectively analyze this type of data. OBIA is usually a two-stage process; image segmentation followed by an analysis of the segmented objects. We are exploring an approach to OBIA in which hierarchical image segmentations provided by the Recursive Hierarchical Segmentation (RHSEG) software developed at NASA GSFC are analyzed by the Subdue graph-based knowledge discovery system developed by a team at Washington State University. In this paper we discuss out initial approach to representing the RHSEG-produced hierarchical image segmentations in a graphical form understandable by Subdue, and provide results on real and simulated data. We also discuss planned improvements designed to more effectively and completely convey the hierarchical segmentation information to Subdue and to improve processing efficiency.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of mobility metrics for hazard model input calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calder, Eliza; Ogburn, Sarah; Spiller, Elaine; Rutarindwa, Regis; Berger, Jim

2015-04-01

In this work we present a method to constrain flow mobility input parameters for pyroclastic flow models using hierarchical Bayes modeling of standard mobility metrics such as H/L and flow volume etc. The advantage of hierarchical modeling is that it can leverage the information in global dataset for a particular mobility metric in order to reduce the uncertainty in modeling of an individual volcano, especially important where individual volcanoes have only sparse datasets. We use compiled pyroclastic flow runout data from Colima, Merapi, Soufriere Hills, Unzen and Semeru volcanoes, presented in an open-source database FlowDat (https://vhub.org/groups/massflowdatabase). While the exact relationship between flow volume and friction varies somewhat between volcanoes, dome collapse flows originating from the same volcano exhibit similar mobility relationships. Instead of fitting separate regression models for each volcano dataset, we use a variation of the hierarchical linear model (Kass and Steffey, 1989). The model presents a hierarchical structure with two levels; all dome collapse flows and dome collapse flows at specific volcanoes. The hierarchical model allows us to assume that the flows at specific volcanoes share a common distribution of regression slopes, then solves for that distribution. We present comparisons of the 95% confidence intervals on the individual regression lines for the data set from each volcano as well as those obtained from the hierarchical model. The results clearly demonstrate the advantage of considering global datasets using this technique. The technique developed is demonstrated here for mobility metrics, but can be applied to many other global datasets of volcanic parameters. In particular, such methods can provide a means to better contain parameters for volcanoes for which we only have sparse data, a ubiquitous problem in volcanology.

Hierarchical Brain Networks Active in Approach and Avoidance Goal Pursuit

PubMed Central

Spielberg, Jeffrey M.; Heller, Wendy; Miller, Gregory A.

2013-01-01

Effective approach/avoidance goal pursuit is critical for attaining long-term health and well-being. Research on the neural correlates of key goal-pursuit processes (e.g., motivation) has long been of interest, with lateralization in prefrontal cortex being a particularly fruitful target of investigation. However, this literature has often been limited by a lack of spatial specificity and has not delineated the precise aspects of approach/avoidance motivation involved. Additionally, the relationships among brain regions (i.e., network connectivity) vital to goal-pursuit remain largely unexplored. Specificity in location, process, and network relationship is vital for moving beyond gross characterizations of function and identifying the precise cortical mechanisms involved in motivation. The present paper integrates research using more spatially specific methodologies (e.g., functional magnetic resonance imaging) with the rich psychological literature on approach/avoidance to propose an integrative network model that takes advantage of the strengths of each of these literatures. PMID:23785328

Hierarchical brain networks active in approach and avoidance goal pursuit.

PubMed

Spielberg, Jeffrey M; Heller, Wendy; Miller, Gregory A

2013-01-01

Effective approach/avoidance goal pursuit is critical for attaining long-term health and well-being. Research on the neural correlates of key goal-pursuit processes (e.g., motivation) has long been of interest, with lateralization in prefrontal cortex being a particularly fruitful target of investigation. However, this literature has often been limited by a lack of spatial specificity and has not delineated the precise aspects of approach/avoidance motivation involved. Additionally, the relationships among brain regions (i.e., network connectivity) vital to goal-pursuit remain largely unexplored. Specificity in location, process, and network relationship is vital for moving beyond gross characterizations of function and identifying the precise cortical mechanisms involved in motivation. The present paper integrates research using more spatially specific methodologies (e.g., functional magnetic resonance imaging) with the rich psychological literature on approach/avoidance to propose an integrative network model that takes advantage of the strengths of each of these literatures.

Multilevel Higher-Order Item Response Theory Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, Hung-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung

2014-01-01

In the social sciences, latent traits often have a hierarchical structure, and data can be sampled from multiple levels. Both hierarchical latent traits and multilevel data can occur simultaneously. In this study, we developed a general class of item response theory models to accommodate both hierarchical latent traits and multilevel data. The…

Scale of association: hierarchical linear models and the measurement of ecological systems

Treesearch

Sean M. McMahon; Jeffrey M. Diez

2007-01-01

A fundamental challenge to understanding patterns in ecological systems lies in employing methods that can analyse, test and draw inference from measured associations between variables across scales. Hierarchical linear models (HLM) use advanced estimation algorithms to measure regression relationships and variance-covariance parameters in hierarchically structured...

An Evaluation of Hierarchical Bayes Estimation for the Two- Parameter Logistic Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Seock-Ho

Hierarchical Bayes procedures for the two-parameter logistic item response model were compared for estimating item parameters. Simulated data sets were analyzed using two different Bayes estimation procedures, the two-stage hierarchical Bayes estimation (HB2) and the marginal Bayesian with known hyperparameters (MB), and marginal maximum…

Concurrent and convergent validity of the mobility- and multidimensional-hierarchical disability categorization models with physical performance in community older adults.

PubMed

Hu, Ming-Hsia; Yeh, Chih-Jun; Chen, Tou-Rong; Wang, Ching-Yi

2014-01-01

A valid, time-efficient and easy-to-use instrument is important for busy clinical settings, large scale surveys, or community screening use. The purpose of this study was to validate the mobility hierarchical disability categorization model (an abbreviated model) by investigating its concurrent validity with the multidimensional hierarchical disability categorization model (a comprehensive model) and triangulating both models with physical performance measures in older adults. 604 community-dwelling older adults of at least 60 years in age volunteered to participate. Self-reported function on mobility, instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) and activities of daily living (ADL) domains were recorded and then the disability status determined based on both the multidimensional hierarchical categorization model and the mobility hierarchical categorization model. The physical performance measures, consisting of grip strength and usual and fastest gait speeds (UGS, FGS), were collected on the same day. Both categorization models showed high correlation (γs = 0.92, p < 0.001) and agreement (kappa = 0.61, p < 0.0001). Physical performance measures demonstrated significant different group means among the disability subgroups based on both categorization models. The results of multiple regression analysis indicated that both models individually explain similar amount of variance on all physical performances, with adjustments for age, sex, and number of comorbidities. Our results found that the mobility hierarchical disability categorization model is a valid and time efficient tool for large survey or screening use.

(Semi-)Automated landform mapping of the alpine valley Gradental (Austria) based on LiDAR data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strasser, T.; Eisank, C.

2012-04-01

Alpine valleys are typically characterised as complex, hierarchical structured systems with rapid landform changes. Detection of landform changes can be supported by automated geomorphological mapping. Especially, the analysis over short time scales require a method for standardised, unbiased geomorphological map reproduction, which is delivered by automated mapping techniques. In general, digital geomorphological mapping is a challenging task, since knowledge about landforms with respect to their natural boundaries as well as their hierarchical and scaling relationships, has to be integrated in an objective way. A combination of very-high spatial resolution data (VHSR) such as LiDAR and new methods like object based image analysis (OBIA) allow for a more standardised production of geomorphological maps. In OBIA the processing units are spatially configured objects that are created by multi-scale segmentation. Therefore, not only spectral information can be used for assigning the objects to geomorphological classes, but also spatial and topological properties can be exploited. In this study we focus on the detection of landforms, especially bedrock sediment deposits (alluvion, debris cone, talus, moraine, rockglacier), as well as glaciers. The study site Gradental [N 46°58'29.1"/ E 12°48'53.8"] is located in the Schobergruppe (Austria, Carinthia) and is characterised by heterogenic geology conditions and high process activity. The area is difficult to access and dominated by steep slopes, thus hindering a fast and detailed geomorphological field mapping. Landforms are identified using aerial and terrestrial LiDAR data (1 m spatial resolution). These DEMs are analysed by an object based hierarchical approach, which is structured in three main steps. The first step is to define occurring landforms by basic land surface parameters (LSPs), topology and hierarchy relations. Based on those definitions a semantic model is created. Secondly, a multi-scale segmentation is performed on a three-band LSP that integrates slope, aspect and plan curvature, which expresses the driving forces of geomorphological processes. In the third step, the generated multi-level object structures are classified in order to produce the geomorphological map. The classification rules are derived from the semantic model. Due to landform type-specific scale dependencies of LSPs, the values of LSPs used in the classification are calculated in a multi-scale manner by constantly enlarging the size of the moving window. In addition, object form properties (density, compactness, rectangular fit) are utilised as additional information for landform characterisation. Validation of classification is performed by intersecting a visually interpreted reference map with the classification output map and calculating accuracy matrices. Validation shows an overall accuracy of 78.25 % and a Kappa of 0.65. The natural borders of landforms can be easily detected by the use of slope, aspect and plan curvature. This study illustrates the potential of OBIA for a more standardised and automated mapping of surface units (landforms, landcover). Therefore, the presented methodology features a prospective automated geomorphological mapping approach for alpine regions.

A generalized linear factor model approach to the hierarchical framework for responses and response times.

PubMed

Molenaar, Dylan; Tuerlinckx, Francis; van der Maas, Han L J

2015-05-01

We show how the hierarchical model for responses and response times as developed by van der Linden (2007), Fox, Klein Entink, and van der Linden (2007), Klein Entink, Fox, and van der Linden (2009), and Glas and van der Linden (2010) can be simplified to a generalized linear factor model with only the mild restriction that there is no hierarchical model at the item side. This result is valuable as it enables all well-developed modelling tools and extensions that come with these methods. We show that the restriction we impose on the hierarchical model does not influence parameter recovery under realistic circumstances. In addition, we present two illustrative real data analyses to demonstrate the practical benefits of our approach. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

Completing the land resource hierarchy

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Land Resource Hierarchy of the NRCS is a hierarchal landscape classification consisting of resource areas which represent both conceptual and spatially discrete landscape units stratifying agency programs and practices. The Land Resource Hierarchy (LRH) scales from discrete points (soil pedon an...

The Hierarchical Distribution of the Young Stellar Clusters in Six Local Star-forming Galaxies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grasha, K.; Calzetti, D.; Adamo, A.

We present a study of the hierarchical clustering of the young stellar clusters in six local (3–15 Mpc) star-forming galaxies using Hubble Space Telescope broadband WFC3/UVIS UV and optical images from the Treasury Program LEGUS (Legacy ExtraGalactic UV Survey). We identified 3685 likely clusters and associations, each visually classified by their morphology, and we use the angular two-point correlation function to study the clustering of these stellar systems. We find that the spatial distribution of the young clusters and associations are clustered with respect to each other, forming large, unbound hierarchical star-forming complexes that are in general very young. Themore » strength of the clustering decreases with increasing age of the star clusters and stellar associations, becoming more homogeneously distributed after ∼40–60 Myr and on scales larger than a few hundred parsecs. In all galaxies, the associations exhibit a global behavior that is distinct and more strongly correlated from compact clusters. Thus, populations of clusters are more evolved than associations in terms of their spatial distribution, traveling significantly from their birth site within a few tens of Myr, whereas associations show evidence of disruption occurring very quickly after their formation. The clustering of the stellar systems resembles that of a turbulent interstellar medium that drives the star formation process, correlating the components in unbound star-forming complexes in a hierarchical manner, dispersing shortly after formation, suggestive of a single, continuous mode of star formation across all galaxies.« less

An Improved Statistical Solution for Global Seismicity by the HIST-ETAS Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, A.; Ogata, Y.; Katsura, K.

2010-12-01

For long-term global seismic model fitting, recent work by Chu et al. (2010) applied the spatial-temporal ETAS model (Ogata 1998) and analyzed global data partitioned into tectonic zones based on geophysical characteristics (Bird 2003), and it has shown tremendous improvements of model fitting compared with one overall global model. While the ordinary ETAS model assumes constant parameter values across the complete region analyzed, the hierarchical space-time ETAS model (HIST-ETAS, Ogata 2004) is a newly introduced approach by proposing regional distinctions of the parameters for more accurate seismic prediction. As the HIST-ETAS model has been fit to regional data of Japan (Ogata 2010), our work applies the model to describe global seismicity. Employing the Akaike's Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) as an assessment method, we compare the MLE results with zone divisions considered to results obtained by an overall global model. Location dependent parameters of the model and Gutenberg-Richter b-values are optimized, and seismological interpretations are discussed.

Spatial pattern of spring phytoplankton community in the coastal waters of northern Zhejiang, East China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Ran; Cai, Yanhong; Wei, Yongjie; Li, Xiaoming

2017-04-01

The spatial pattern of phytoplankton community can indicate potential environmental variation in different water bodies. In this context, spatial pattern of phytoplankton community and its response to environmental and spatial factors were studied in the coastal waters of northern Zhejiang, East China Sea using multivariate statistical techniques. Results showed that 94 species belonging to 40 genera, 5 phyla were recorded (the remaining 9 were identified to genus level) with diatoms being the most dominant followed by dinoflagellates. Hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA), nonmetric multidimentional scaling (NMDS), and analysis of similarity (ANOSIM) all demomstrated that the whole study area could be divided into 3 subareas with significant differences. Indicator species analysis (ISA) further confirmed that the indicator species of each subarea correlated significantly with specific environmental factors. Distance-based linear model (Distlm) and Mantel test revealed that silicate (SiO32-), phosphate (PO43-), pH, and dissolved oxygen (DO) were the most important environmental factors influencing phytoplankton community. Variation portioning (VP) finally concluded that the shared fractions of environmental and spatial factors were higher than either the pure environmental effects or the pure spatial effects, suggesting phytoplankton biogeography were mainly affected by both the environmental variability and dispersal limitation. Additionally, other factors (eg., trace metals, biological grazing, climate change, and time-scale variation) may also be the sources of the unexplained variation which need further study.

Model-based hierarchical reinforcement learning and human action control

PubMed Central

Botvinick, Matthew; Weinstein, Ari

2014-01-01

Recent work has reawakened interest in goal-directed or ‘model-based’ choice, where decisions are based on prospective evaluation of potential action outcomes. Concurrently, there has been growing attention to the role of hierarchy in decision-making and action control. We focus here on the intersection between these two areas of interest, considering the topic of hierarchical model-based control. To characterize this form of action control, we draw on the computational framework of hierarchical reinforcement learning, using this to interpret recent empirical findings. The resulting picture reveals how hierarchical model-based mechanisms might play a special and pivotal role in human decision-making, dramatically extending the scope and complexity of human behaviour. PMID:25267822

Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Fluid-Induced Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broccardo, M.; Mignan, A.; Wiemer, S.; Stojadinovic, B.; Giardini, D.

2017-11-01

In this study, we present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model fluid-induced seismicity. The framework is based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a fluid-induced seismicity rate proportional to the rate of injected fluid. The fluid-induced seismicity rate model depends upon a set of physically meaningful parameters and has been validated for six fluid-induced case studies. In line with the vision of hierarchical Bayesian modeling, the rate parameters are considered as random variables. We develop both the Bayesian inference and updating rules, which are used to develop a probabilistic forecasting model. We tested the Basel 2006 fluid-induced seismic case study to prove that the hierarchical Bayesian model offers a suitable framework to coherently encode both epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability. Moreover, it provides a robust and consistent short-term seismic forecasting model suitable for online risk quantification and mitigation.

Discursive Hierarchical Patterning in Economics Cases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lung, Jane

2011-01-01

This paper attempts to apply Lung's (2008) model of the discursive hierarchical patterning of cases to a closer and more specific study of Economics cases and proposes a model of the distinct discursive hierarchical patterning of the same. It examines a corpus of 150 Economics cases with a view to uncovering the patterns of discourse construction.…

Higher-Order Item Response Models for Hierarchical Latent Traits

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, Hung-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung; Chen, Po-Hsi; Su, Chi-Ming

2013-01-01

Many latent traits in the human sciences have a hierarchical structure. This study aimed to develop a new class of higher order item response theory models for hierarchical latent traits that are flexible in accommodating both dichotomous and polytomous items, to estimate both item and person parameters jointly, to allow users to specify…

Measuring Stages of Growth: A Psychometric Model of Hierarchical Development. Occasional Paper No. 19.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, Mark

A psychometric model called Saltus, which represents the qualitative aspects of hierarchical development in a form applicable to additive measurement, was applied. Both Piaget's theory of cognitive development and Gagne's theory of learning hierarchies were used to establish the common features of hierarchical development: (1) gappiness--the…

Hierarchic models for laminated plates. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Actis, Ricardo Luis

1991-01-01

Structural plates and shells are three-dimensional bodies, one dimension of which happens to be much smaller than the other two. Thus, the quality of a plate or shell model must be judged on the basis of how well its exact solution approximates the corresponding three-dimensional problem. Of course, the exact solution depends not only on the choice of the model but also on the topology, material properties, loading and constraints. The desired degree of approximation depends on the analyst's goals in performing the analysis. For these reasons models have to be chosen adaptively. Hierarchic sequences of models make adaptive selection of the model which is best suited for the purposes of a particular analysis possible. The principles governing the formulation of hierarchic models for laminated plates are presented. The essential features of the hierarchic models described models are: (1) the exact solutions corresponding to the hierarchic sequence of models converge to the exact solution of the corresponding problem of elasticity for a fixed laminate thickness; and (2) the exact solution of each model converges to the same limit as the exact solution of the corresponding problem of elasticity with respect to the laminate thickness approaching zero. The formulation is based on one parameter (beta) which characterizes the hierarchic sequence of models, and a set of constants whose influence was assessed by a numerical sensitivity study. The recommended selection of these constants results in the number of fields increasing by three for each increment in the power of beta. Numerical examples analyzed with the proposed sequence of models are included and good correlation with the reference solutions was found. Results were obtained for laminated strips (plates in cylindrical bending) and for square and rectangular plates with uniform loading and with homogeneous boundary conditions. Cross-ply and angle-ply laminates were evaluated and the results compared with those of MSC/PROBE. Hierarchic models make the computation of any engineering data possible to an arbitrary level of precision within the framework of the theory of elasticity.

Analysis hierarchical model for discrete event systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciortea, E. M.

2015-11-01

The This paper presents the hierarchical model based on discrete event network for robotic systems. Based on the hierarchical approach, Petri network is analysed as a network of the highest conceptual level and the lowest level of local control. For modelling and control of complex robotic systems using extended Petri nets. Such a system is structured, controlled and analysed in this paper by using Visual Object Net ++ package that is relatively simple and easy to use, and the results are shown as representations easy to interpret. The hierarchical structure of the robotic system is implemented on computers analysed using specialized programs. Implementation of hierarchical model discrete event systems, as a real-time operating system on a computer network connected via a serial bus is possible, where each computer is dedicated to local and Petri model of a subsystem global robotic system. Since Petri models are simplified to apply general computers, analysis, modelling, complex manufacturing systems control can be achieved using Petri nets. Discrete event systems is a pragmatic tool for modelling industrial systems. For system modelling using Petri nets because we have our system where discrete event. To highlight the auxiliary time Petri model using transport stream divided into hierarchical levels and sections are analysed successively. Proposed robotic system simulation using timed Petri, offers the opportunity to view the robotic time. Application of goods or robotic and transmission times obtained by measuring spot is obtained graphics showing the average time for transport activity, using the parameters sets of finished products. individually.

Deep Neural Network for Structural Prediction and Lane Detection in Traffic Scene.

PubMed

Li, Jun; Mei, Xue; Prokhorov, Danil; Tao, Dacheng

2017-03-01

Hierarchical neural networks have been shown to be effective in learning representative image features and recognizing object classes. However, most existing networks combine the low/middle level cues for classification without accounting for any spatial structures. For applications such as understanding a scene, how the visual cues are spatially distributed in an image becomes essential for successful analysis. This paper extends the framework of deep neural networks by accounting for the structural cues in the visual signals. In particular, two kinds of neural networks have been proposed. First, we develop a multitask deep convolutional network, which simultaneously detects the presence of the target and the geometric attributes (location and orientation) of the target with respect to the region of interest. Second, a recurrent neuron layer is adopted for structured visual detection. The recurrent neurons can deal with the spatial distribution of visible cues belonging to an object whose shape or structure is difficult to explicitly define. Both the networks are demonstrated by the practical task of detecting lane boundaries in traffic scenes. The multitask convolutional neural network provides auxiliary geometric information to help the subsequent modeling of the given lane structures. The recurrent neural network automatically detects lane boundaries, including those areas containing no marks, without any explicit prior knowledge or secondary modeling.

Spatial distribution of tree species governs the spatio-temporal interaction of leaf area index and soil moisture across a forested landscape.

PubMed

Naithani, Kusum J; Baldwin, Doug C; Gaines, Katie P; Lin, Henry; Eissenstat, David M

2013-01-01

Quantifying coupled spatio-temporal dynamics of phenology and hydrology and understanding underlying processes is a fundamental challenge in ecohydrology. While variation in phenology and factors influencing it have attracted the attention of ecologists for a long time, the influence of biodiversity on coupled dynamics of phenology and hydrology across a landscape is largely untested. We measured leaf area index (L) and volumetric soil water content (θ) on a co-located spatial grid to characterize forest phenology and hydrology across a forested catchment in central Pennsylvania during 2010. We used hierarchical Bayesian modeling to quantify spatio-temporal patterns of L and θ. Our results suggest that the spatial distribution of tree species across the landscape created unique spatio-temporal patterns of L, which created patterns of water demand reflected in variable soil moisture across space and time. We found a lag of about 11 days between increase in L and decline in θ. Vegetation and soil moisture become increasingly homogenized and coupled from leaf-onset to maturity but heterogeneous and uncoupled from leaf maturity to senescence. Our results provide insight into spatio-temporal coupling between biodiversity and soil hydrology that is useful to enhance ecohydrological modeling in humid temperate forests.

A highly accurate symmetric optical flow based high-dimensional nonlinear spatial normalization of brain images.

PubMed

Wen, Ying; Hou, Lili; He, Lianghua; Peterson, Bradley S; Xu, Dongrong

2015-05-01

Spatial normalization plays a key role in voxel-based analyses of brain images. We propose a highly accurate algorithm for high-dimensional spatial normalization of brain images based on the technique of symmetric optical flow. We first construct a three dimension optical model with the consistency assumption of intensity and consistency of the gradient of intensity under a constraint of discontinuity-preserving spatio-temporal smoothness. Then, an efficient inverse consistency optical flow is proposed with aims of higher registration accuracy, where the flow is naturally symmetric. By employing a hierarchical strategy ranging from coarse to fine scales of resolution and a method of Euler-Lagrange numerical analysis, our algorithm is capable of registering brain images data. Experiments using both simulated and real datasets demonstrated that the accuracy of our algorithm is not only better than that of those traditional optical flow algorithms, but also comparable to other registration methods used extensively in the medical imaging community. Moreover, our registration algorithm is fully automated, requiring a very limited number of parameters and no manual intervention. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Systematic, spatial imaging of large multimolecular assemblies and the emerging principles of supramolecular order in biological systems

PubMed Central

Schubert, Walter

2013-01-01

Understanding biological systems at the level of their relational (emergent) molecular properties in functional protein networks relies on imaging methods, able to spatially resolve a tissue or a cell as a giant, non-random, topologically defined collection of interacting supermolecules executing myriads of subcellular mechanisms. Here, the development and findings of parameter-unlimited functional super-resolution microscopy are described—a technology based on the fluorescence imaging cycler (IC) principle capable of co-mapping thousands of distinct biomolecular assemblies at high spatial resolution and differentiation (<40 nm distances). It is shown that the subcellular and transcellular features of such supermolecules can be described at the compositional and constitutional levels; that the spatial connection, relational stoichiometry, and topology of supermolecules generate hitherto unrecognized functional self-segmentation of biological tissues; that hierarchical features, common to thousands of simultaneously imaged supermolecules, can be identified; and how the resulting supramolecular order relates to spatial coding of cellular functionalities in biological systems. A large body of observations with IC molecular systems microscopy collected over 20 years have disclosed principles governed by a law of supramolecular segregation of cellular functionalities. This pervades phenomena, such as exceptional orderliness, functional selectivity, combinatorial and spatial periodicity, and hierarchical organization of large molecular systems, across all species investigated so far. This insight is based on the high degree of specificity, selectivity, and sensitivity of molecular recognition processes for fluorescence imaging beyond the spectral resolution limit, using probe libraries controlled by ICs. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Molecular Recognition published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:24375580

Web-based Visualization and Query of semantically segmented multiresolution 3D Models in the Field of Cultural Heritage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auer, M.; Agugiaro, G.; Billen, N.; Loos, L.; Zipf, A.

2014-05-01

Many important Cultural Heritage sites have been studied over long periods of time by different means of technical equipment, methods and intentions by different researchers. This has led to huge amounts of heterogeneous "traditional" datasets and formats. The rising popularity of 3D models in the field of Cultural Heritage in recent years has brought additional data formats and makes it even more necessary to find solutions to manage, publish and study these data in an integrated way. The MayaArch3D project aims to realize such an integrative approach by establishing a web-based research platform bringing spatial and non-spatial databases together and providing visualization and analysis tools. Especially the 3D components of the platform use hierarchical segmentation concepts to structure the data and to perform queries on semantic entities. This paper presents a database schema to organize not only segmented models but also different Levels-of-Details and other representations of the same entity. It is further implemented in a spatial database which allows the storing of georeferenced 3D data. This enables organization and queries by semantic, geometric and spatial properties. As service for the delivery of the segmented models a standardization candidate of the OpenGeospatialConsortium (OGC), the Web3DService (W3DS) has been extended to cope with the new database schema and deliver a web friendly format for WebGL rendering. Finally a generic user interface is presented which uses the segments as navigation metaphor to browse and query the semantic segmentation levels and retrieve information from an external database of the German Archaeological Institute (DAI).

Biologically-inspired robust and adaptive multi-sensor fusion and active control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosla, Deepak; Dow, Paul A.; Huber, David J.

2009-04-01

In this paper, we describe a method and system for robust and efficient goal-oriented active control of a machine (e.g., robot) based on processing, hierarchical spatial understanding, representation and memory of multimodal sensory inputs. This work assumes that a high-level plan or goal is known a priori or is provided by an operator interface, which translates into an overall perceptual processing strategy for the machine. Its analogy to the human brain is the download of plans and decisions from the pre-frontal cortex into various perceptual working memories as a perceptual plan that then guides the sensory data collection and processing. For example, a goal might be to look for specific colored objects in a scene while also looking for specific sound sources. This paper combines three key ideas and methods into a single closed-loop active control system. (1) Use high-level plan or goal to determine and prioritize spatial locations or waypoints (targets) in multimodal sensory space; (2) collect/store information about these spatial locations at the appropriate hierarchy and representation in a spatial working memory. This includes invariant learning of these spatial representations and how to convert between them; and (3) execute actions based on ordered retrieval of these spatial locations from hierarchical spatial working memory and using the "right" level of representation that can efficiently translate into motor actions. In its most specific form, the active control is described for a vision system (such as a pantilt- zoom camera system mounted on a robotic head and neck unit) which finds and then fixates on high saliency visual objects. We also describe the approach where the goal is to turn towards and sequentially foveate on salient multimodal cues that include both visual and auditory inputs.

Spatial patterns in vegetation fires in the Indian region.

PubMed

Vadrevu, Krishna Prasad; Badarinath, K V S; Anuradha, Eaturu

2008-12-01

In this study, we used fire count datasets derived from Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) satellite to characterize spatial patterns in fire occurrences across highly diverse geographical, vegetation and topographic gradients in the Indian region. For characterizing the spatial patterns of fire occurrences, observed fire point patterns were tested against the hypothesis of a complete spatial random (CSR) pattern using three different techniques, the quadrat analysis, nearest neighbor analysis and Ripley's K function. Hierarchical nearest neighboring technique was used to depict the 'hotspots' of fire incidents. Of the different states, highest fire counts were recorded in Madhya Pradesh (14.77%) followed by Gujarat (10.86%), Maharastra (9.92%), Mizoram (7.66%), Jharkhand (6.41%), etc. With respect to the vegetation categories, highest number of fires were recorded in agricultural regions (40.26%) followed by tropical moist deciduous vegetation (12.72), dry deciduous vegetation (11.40%), abandoned slash and burn secondary forests (9.04%), tropical montane forests (8.07%) followed by others. Analysis of fire counts based on elevation and slope range suggested that maximum number of fires occurred in low and medium elevation types and in very low to low-slope categories. Results from three different spatial techniques for spatial pattern suggested clustered pattern in fire events compared to CSR. Most importantly, results from Ripley's K statistic suggested that fire events are highly clustered at a lag-distance of 125 miles. Hierarchical nearest neighboring clustering technique identified significant clusters of fire 'hotspots' in different states in northeast and central India. The implications of these results in fire management and mitigation were discussed. Also, this study highlights the potential of spatial point pattern statistics in environmental monitoring and assessment studies with special reference to fire events in the Indian region.

Online Hierarchical Sparse Representation of Multifeature for Robust Object Tracking

PubMed Central

Qu, Shiru

2016-01-01

Object tracking based on sparse representation has given promising tracking results in recent years. However, the trackers under the framework of sparse representation always overemphasize the sparse representation and ignore the correlation of visual information. In addition, the sparse coding methods only encode the local region independently and ignore the spatial neighborhood information of the image. In this paper, we propose a robust tracking algorithm. Firstly, multiple complementary features are used to describe the object appearance; the appearance model of the tracked target is modeled by instantaneous and stable appearance features simultaneously. A two-stage sparse-coded method which takes the spatial neighborhood information of the image patch and the computation burden into consideration is used to compute the reconstructed object appearance. Then, the reliability of each tracker is measured by the tracking likelihood function of transient and reconstructed appearance models. Finally, the most reliable tracker is obtained by a well established particle filter framework; the training set and the template library are incrementally updated based on the current tracking results. Experiment results on different challenging video sequences show that the proposed algorithm performs well with superior tracking accuracy and robustness. PMID:27630710

Regional variation in the hierarchical partitioning of diversity in coral-dwelling fishes.

PubMed

Belmaker, Jonathan; Ziv, Yaron; Shashar, Nadav; Connolly, Sean R

2008-10-01

The size of the regional species pool may influence local patterns of diversity. However, it is unclear whether certain spatial scales are less sensitive to regional influences than others. Additive partitioning was used to separate coral-dwelling fish diversity to its alpha and beta components, at multiple scales, in several regions across the Indo-Pacific. We then examined how the relative contribution of these components changes with increased regional diversity. By employing specific random-placement null models, we overcome methodological problems with local-regional regressions. We show that, although alpha and beta diversities within each region are consistently different from random-placement null models, the increase in beta diversities among regions was similar to that predicted once heterogeneity in coral habitat was accounted for. In contrast, alpha diversity within single coral heads was limited and increased less than predicted by the null models. This was correlated with increased intraspecific aggregation in more diverse regions and is consistent with ecological limitations on the number of coexisting species at the local scale. These results suggest that, apart from very small spatial scales, variation in the partitioning of fish diversity along regional species richness gradients is driven overwhelmingly by the corresponding gradients in coral assemblage structure.

Outline for a theory of intelligence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Albus, James S.

1991-01-01

Intelligence is defined as that which produces successful behavior. Intelligence is assumed to result from natural selection. A model is proposed that integrates knowledge from research in both natural and artificial systems. The model consists of a hierarchical system architecture wherein: (1) control bandwidth decreases about an order of magnitude at each higher level, (2) perceptual resolution of spatial and temporal patterns contracts about an order-of-magnitude at each higher level, (3) goals expand in scope and planning horizons expand in space and time about an order-of-magnitude at each higher level, and (4) models of the world and memories of events expand their range in space and time by about an order-of-magnitude at each higher level. At each level, functional modules perform behavior generation (task decomposition planning and execution), world modeling, sensory processing, and value judgment. Sensory feedback control loops are closed at every level.

Bayesian hierarchical modelling of continuous non-negative longitudinal data with a spike at zero: An application to a study of birds visiting gardens in winter.

PubMed

Swallow, Ben; Buckland, Stephen T; King, Ruth; Toms, Mike P

2016-03-01

The development of methods for dealing with continuous data with a spike at zero has lagged behind those for overdispersed or zero-inflated count data. We consider longitudinal ecological data corresponding to an annual average of 26 weekly maximum counts of birds, and are hence effectively continuous, bounded below by zero but also with a discrete mass at zero. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical Tweedie regression model that can directly accommodate the excess number of zeros common to this type of data, whilst accounting for both spatial and temporal correlation. Implementation of the model is conducted in a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework, using reversible jump MCMC to explore uncertainty across both parameter and model spaces. This regression modelling framework is very flexible and removes the need to make strong assumptions about mean-variance relationships a priori. It can also directly account for the spike at zero, whilst being easily applicable to other types of data and other model formulations. Whilst a correlative study such as this cannot prove causation, our results suggest that an increase in an avian predator may have led to an overall decrease in the number of one of its prey species visiting garden feeding stations in the United Kingdom. This may reflect a change in behaviour of house sparrows to avoid feeding stations frequented by sparrowhawks, or a reduction in house sparrow population size as a result of sparrowhawk increase. © 2015 The Author. Biometrical Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A hierarchical approach to reliability modeling of fault-tolerant systems. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gossman, W. E.

1986-01-01

A methodology for performing fault tolerant system reliability analysis is presented. The method decomposes a system into its subsystems, evaluates vent rates derived from the subsystem's conditional state probability vector and incorporates those results into a hierarchical Markov model of the system. This is done in a manner that addresses failure sequence dependence associated with the system's redundancy management strategy. The method is derived for application to a specific system definition. Results are presented that compare the hierarchical model's unreliability prediction to that of a more complicated tandard Markov model of the system. The results for the example given indicate that the hierarchical method predicts system unreliability to a desirable level of accuracy while achieving significant computational savings relative to component level Markov model of the system.

Testing higher-order Lagrangian perturbation theory against numerical simulation. 1: Pancake models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buchert, T.; Melott, A. L.; Weiss, A. G.

1993-01-01

We present results showing an improvement of the accuracy of perturbation theory as applied to cosmological structure formation for a useful range of quasi-linear scales. The Lagrangian theory of gravitational instability of an Einstein-de Sitter dust cosmogony investigated and solved up to the third order is compared with numerical simulations. In this paper we study the dynamics of pancake models as a first step. In previous work the accuracy of several analytical approximations for the modeling of large-scale structure in the mildly non-linear regime was analyzed in the same way, allowing for direct comparison of the accuracy of various approximations. In particular, the Zel'dovich approximation (hereafter ZA) as a subclass of the first-order Lagrangian perturbation solutions was found to provide an excellent approximation to the density field in the mildly non-linear regime (i.e. up to a linear r.m.s. density contrast of sigma is approximately 2). The performance of ZA in hierarchical clustering models can be greatly improved by truncating the initial power spectrum (smoothing the initial data). We here explore whether this approximation can be further improved with higher-order corrections in the displacement mapping from homogeneity. We study a single pancake model (truncated power-spectrum with power-spectrum with power-index n = -1) using cross-correlation statistics employed in previous work. We found that for all statistical methods used the higher-order corrections improve the results obtained for the first-order solution up to the stage when sigma (linear theory) is approximately 1. While this improvement can be seen for all spatial scales, later stages retain this feature only above a certain scale which is increasing with time. However, third-order is not much improvement over second-order at any stage. The total breakdown of the perturbation approach is observed at the stage, where sigma (linear theory) is approximately 2, which corresponds to the onset of hierarchical clustering. This success is found at a considerable higher non-linearity than is usual for perturbation theory. Whether a truncation of the initial power-spectrum in hierarchical models retains this improvement will be analyzed in a forthcoming work.

Resolving the Framework Position of Organic Structure-Directing Agents in Hierarchical Zeolites via Polarized Stimulated Raman Scattering.

PubMed

Fleury, Guillaume; Steele, Julian A; Gerber, Iann C; Jolibois, F; Puech, P; Muraoka, Koki; Keoh, Sye Hoe; Chaikittisilp, Watcharop; Okubo, Tatsuya; Roeffaers, Maarten B J

2018-04-05

The direct synthesis of hierarchically intergrown silicalite-1 can be achieved using a specific diquaternary ammonium agent. However, the location of these molecules in the zeolite framework, which is critical to understand the formation of the material, remains unclear. Where traditional characterization tools have previously failed, herein we use polarized stimulated Raman scattering (SRS) microscopy to resolve molecular organization inside few-micron-sized crystals. Through a combination of experiment and first-principles calculations, our investigation reveals the preferential location of the templating agent inside the linear pores of the MFI framework. Besides illustrating the attractiveness of SRS microscopy in the field of material science to study and spatially resolve local molecular distribution as well as orientation, these results can be exploited in the design of new templating agents for the preparation of hierarchical zeolites.

Preparation of Hierarchical Porous Silicalite-1 Encapsulated Ag NPs and Its Catalytic Performance for 4-Nitrophenol Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bin; Wang, Haojiang; Zhang, Fengwei; Sun, Tijian

2018-06-01

A facile and efficient strategy is presented for the encapsulation of Ag NPs within hierarchical porous silicalite-1. The physicochemical properties of the resultant catalyst are characterized by TEM, XRD, FTIR, and N2 adsorption-desorption analytical techniques. It turns out that the Ag NPs are well distributed in MFI zeolite framework, which possesses hierarchical porous characteristics (1.75, 3.96 nm), and the specific surface area is as high as 243 m2 · g-1. More importantly, such catalyst can rapidly transform the 4-nitrophenol to 4-aminophenol in aqueous solution at room temperature, and a quantitative conversion is also obtained after being reused 10 times. The reasons can be attributed to the fast mass transfer, large surface area, and spatial confinement effect of the advanced support.

Ranking of Business Process Simulation Software Tools with DEX/QQ Hierarchical Decision Model.

PubMed

Damij, Nadja; Boškoski, Pavle; Bohanec, Marko; Mileva Boshkoska, Biljana

2016-01-01

The omnipresent need for optimisation requires constant improvements of companies' business processes (BPs). Minimising the risk of inappropriate BP being implemented is usually performed by simulating the newly developed BP under various initial conditions and "what-if" scenarios. An effectual business process simulations software (BPSS) is a prerequisite for accurate analysis of an BP. Characterisation of an BPSS tool is a challenging task due to the complex selection criteria that includes quality of visual aspects, simulation capabilities, statistical facilities, quality reporting etc. Under such circumstances, making an optimal decision is challenging. Therefore, various decision support models are employed aiding the BPSS tool selection. The currently established decision support models are either proprietary or comprise only a limited subset of criteria, which affects their accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a new hierarchical decision support model for ranking of BPSS based on their technical characteristics by employing DEX and qualitative to quantitative (QQ) methodology. Consequently, the decision expert feeds the required information in a systematic and user friendly manner. There are three significant contributions of the proposed approach. Firstly, the proposed hierarchical model is easily extendible for adding new criteria in the hierarchical structure. Secondly, a fully operational decision support system (DSS) tool that implements the proposed hierarchical model is presented. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical model is assessed by comparing the resulting rankings of BPSS with respect to currently available results.

A Study of Hierarchical Classification in Concrete and Formal Thought.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lowell, Walter E.

This researcher investigated the relationship of hierarchical classification processes in subjects categorized as to developmental level as defined by Piaget's theory, and explored the validity of the hierarchical model and test used in the study. A hierarchical classification test and a battery of four Piaget-type tasks were administered…

A Model of Knowledge Based Information Retrieval with Hierarchical Concept Graph.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Young Whan; Kim, Jin H.

1990-01-01

Proposes a model of knowledge-based information retrieval (KBIR) that is based on a hierarchical concept graph (HCG) which shows relationships between index terms and constitutes a hierarchical thesaurus as a knowledge base. Conceptual distance between a query and an object is discussed and the use of Boolean operators is described. (25…

Latent Variable Regression 4-Level Hierarchical Model Using Multisite Multiple-Cohorts Longitudinal Data. CRESST Report 801

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Choi, Kilchan

2011-01-01

This report explores a new latent variable regression 4-level hierarchical model for monitoring school performance over time using multisite multiple-cohorts longitudinal data. This kind of data set has a 4-level hierarchical structure: time-series observation nested within students who are nested within different cohorts of students. These…

A Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model decomposition of performance in Approach–Avoidance Tasks

PubMed Central

Krypotos, Angelos-Miltiadis; Beckers, Tom; Kindt, Merel; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2015-01-01

Common methods for analysing response time (RT) tasks, frequently used across different disciplines of psychology, suffer from a number of limitations such as the failure to directly measure the underlying latent processes of interest and the inability to take into account the uncertainty associated with each individual's point estimate of performance. Here, we discuss a Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model and apply it to RT data. This model allows researchers to decompose performance into meaningful psychological processes and to account optimally for individual differences and commonalities, even with relatively sparse data. We highlight the advantages of the Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model decomposition by applying it to performance on Approach–Avoidance Tasks, widely used in the emotion and psychopathology literature. Model fits for two experimental data-sets demonstrate that the model performs well. The Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model overcomes important limitations of current analysis procedures and provides deeper insight in latent psychological processes of interest. PMID:25491372

Hierarchical modeling of molecular energies using a deep neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lubbers, Nicholas; Smith, Justin S.; Barros, Kipton

2018-06-01

We introduce the Hierarchically Interacting Particle Neural Network (HIP-NN) to model molecular properties from datasets of quantum calculations. Inspired by a many-body expansion, HIP-NN decomposes properties, such as energy, as a sum over hierarchical terms. These terms are generated from a neural network—a composition of many nonlinear transformations—acting on a representation of the molecule. HIP-NN achieves the state-of-the-art performance on a dataset of 131k ground state organic molecules and predicts energies with 0.26 kcal/mol mean absolute error. With minimal tuning, our model is also competitive on a dataset of molecular dynamics trajectories. In addition to enabling accurate energy predictions, the hierarchical structure of HIP-NN helps to identify regions of model uncertainty.

Estimation and Application of Ecological Memory Functions in Time and Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itter, M.; Finley, A. O.; Dawson, A.

2017-12-01

A common goal in quantitative ecology is the estimation or prediction of ecological processes as a function of explanatory variables (or covariates). Frequently, the ecological process of interest and associated covariates vary in time, space, or both. Theory indicates many ecological processes exhibit memory to local, past conditions. Despite such theoretical understanding, few methods exist to integrate observations from the recent past or within a local neighborhood as drivers of these processes. We build upon recent methodological advances in ecology and spatial statistics to develop a Bayesian hierarchical framework to estimate so-called ecological memory functions; that is, weight-generating functions that specify the relative importance of local, past covariate observations to ecological processes. Memory functions are estimated using a set of basis functions in time and/or space, allowing for flexible ecological memory based on a reduced set of parameters. Ecological memory functions are entirely data driven under the Bayesian hierarchical framework—no a priori assumptions are made regarding functional forms. Memory function uncertainty follows directly from posterior distributions for model parameters allowing for tractable propagation of error to predictions of ecological processes. We apply the model framework to simulated spatio-temporal datasets generated using memory functions of varying complexity. The framework is also applied to estimate the ecological memory of annual boreal forest growth to local, past water availability. Consistent with ecological understanding of boreal forest growth dynamics, memory to past water availability peaks in the year previous to growth and slowly decays to zero in five to eight years. The Bayesian hierarchical framework has applicability to a broad range of ecosystems and processes allowing for increased understanding of ecosystem responses to local and past conditions and improved prediction of ecological processes.

Cognitive Diagnostic Analysis Using Hierarchically Structured Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Su, Yu-Lan

2013-01-01

This dissertation proposes two modified cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs), the deterministic, inputs, noisy, "and" gate with hierarchy (DINA-H) model and the deterministic, inputs, noisy, "or" gate with hierarchy (DINO-H) model. Both models incorporate the hierarchical structures of the cognitive skills in the model estimation…

TU-FG-209-12: Treatment Site and View Recognition in X-Ray Images with Hierarchical Multiclass Recognition Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, X; Mazur, T; Yang, D

Purpose: To investigate an approach of automatically recognizing anatomical sites and imaging views (the orientation of the image acquisition) in 2D X-ray images. Methods: A hierarchical (binary tree) multiclass recognition model was developed to recognize the treatment sites and views in x-ray images. From top to bottom of the tree, the treatment sites are grouped hierarchically from more general to more specific. Each node in the hierarchical model was designed to assign images to one of two categories of anatomical sites. The binary image classification function of each node in the hierarchical model is implemented by using a PCA transformationmore » and a support vector machine (SVM) model. The optimal PCA transformation matrices and SVM models are obtained by learning from a set of sample images. Alternatives of the hierarchical model were developed to support three scenarios of site recognition that may happen in radiotherapy clinics, including two or one X-ray images with or without view information. The performance of the approach was tested with images of 120 patients from six treatment sites – brain, head-neck, breast, lung, abdomen and pelvis – with 20 patients per site and two views (AP and RT) per patient. Results: Given two images in known orthogonal views (AP and RT), the hierarchical model achieved a 99% average F1 score to recognize the six sites. Site specific view recognition models have 100 percent accuracy. The computation time to process a new patient case (preprocessing, site and view recognition) is 0.02 seconds. Conclusion: The proposed hierarchical model of site and view recognition is effective and computationally efficient. It could be useful to automatically and independently confirm the treatment sites and views in daily setup x-ray 2D images. It could also be applied to guide subsequent image processing tasks, e.g. site and view dependent contrast enhancement and image registration. The senior author received research grants from ViewRay Inc. and Varian Medical System.« less

A multi-scale comparison of trait linkages to environmental and spatial variables in fish communities across a large freshwater lake.

PubMed

Strecker, Angela L; Casselman, John M; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Jackson, Donald A; Ridgway, Mark S; Abrams, Peter A; Shuter, Brian J

2011-07-01

Species present in communities are affected by the prevailing environmental conditions, and the traits that these species display may be sensitive indicators of community responses to environmental change. However, interpretation of community responses may be confounded by environmental variation at different spatial scales. Using a hierarchical approach, we assessed the spatial and temporal variation of traits in coastal fish communities in Lake Huron over a 5-year time period (2001-2005) in response to biotic and abiotic environmental factors. The association of environmental and spatial variables with trophic, life-history, and thermal traits at two spatial scales (regional basin-scale, local site-scale) was quantified using multivariate statistics and variation partitioning. We defined these two scales (regional, local) on which to measure variation and then applied this measurement framework identically in all 5 study years. With this framework, we found that there was no change in the spatial scales of fish community traits over the course of the study, although there were small inter-annual shifts in the importance of regional basin- and local site-scale variables in determining community trait composition (e.g., life-history, trophic, and thermal). The overriding effects of regional-scale variables may be related to inter-annual variation in average summer temperature. Additionally, drivers of fish community traits were highly variable among study years, with some years dominated by environmental variation and others dominated by spatially structured variation. The influence of spatial factors on trait composition was dynamic, which suggests that spatial patterns in fish communities over large landscapes are transient. Air temperature and vegetation were significant variables in most years, underscoring the importance of future climate change and shoreline development as drivers of fish community structure. Overall, a trait-based hierarchical framework may be a useful conservation tool, as it highlights the multi-scaled interactive effect of variables over a large landscape.

Estimating black bear density using DNA data from hair snares

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, B.; Royle, J. Andrew; Wegan, M.T.; Rainbolt, R.E.; Curtis, P.D.

2010-01-01

DNA-based mark-recapture has become a methodological cornerstone of research focused on bear species. The objective of such studies is often to estimate population size; however, doing so is frequently complicated by movement of individual bears. Movement affects the probability of detection and the assumption of closure of the population required in most models. To mitigate the bias caused by movement of individuals, population size and density estimates are often adjusted using ad hoc methods, including buffering the minimum polygon of the trapping array. We used a hierarchical, spatial capturerecapture model that contains explicit components for the spatial-point process that governs the distribution of individuals and their exposure to (via movement), and detection by, traps. We modeled detection probability as a function of each individual's distance to the trap and an indicator variable for previous capture to account for possible behavioral responses. We applied our model to a 2006 hair-snare study of a black bear (Ursus americanus) population in northern New York, USA. Based on the microsatellite marker analysis of collected hair samples, 47 individuals were identified. We estimated mean density at 0.20 bears/km2. A positive estimate of the indicator variable suggests that bears are attracted to baited sites; therefore, including a trap-dependence covariate is important when using bait to attract individuals. Bayesian analysis of the model was implemented in WinBUGS, and we provide the model specification. The model can be applied to any spatially organized trapping array (hair snares, camera traps, mist nests, etc.) to estimate density and can also account for heterogeneity and covariate information at the trap or individual level. ?? The Wildlife Society.

Statistical label fusion with hierarchical performance models

PubMed Central

Asman, Andrew J.; Dagley, Alexander S.; Landman, Bennett A.

2014-01-01

Label fusion is a critical step in many image segmentation frameworks (e.g., multi-atlas segmentation) as it provides a mechanism for generalizing a collection of labeled examples into a single estimate of the underlying segmentation. In the multi-label case, typical label fusion algorithms treat all labels equally – fully neglecting the known, yet complex, anatomical relationships exhibited in the data. To address this problem, we propose a generalized statistical fusion framework using hierarchical models of rater performance. Building on the seminal work in statistical fusion, we reformulate the traditional rater performance model from a multi-tiered hierarchical perspective. This new approach provides a natural framework for leveraging known anatomical relationships and accurately modeling the types of errors that raters (or atlases) make within a hierarchically consistent formulation. Herein, we describe several contributions. First, we derive a theoretical advancement to the statistical fusion framework that enables the simultaneous estimation of multiple (hierarchical) performance models within the statistical fusion context. Second, we demonstrate that the proposed hierarchical formulation is highly amenable to the state-of-the-art advancements that have been made to the statistical fusion framework. Lastly, in an empirical whole-brain segmentation task we demonstrate substantial qualitative and significant quantitative improvement in overall segmentation accuracy. PMID:24817809

Regional Population Dynamics

Treesearch

Andrew Birt

2011-01-01

The population dynamics of the southern pine beetle (SPB) exhibit characteristic fluctuations between relatively long endemic and shorter outbreak periods. Populations exhibit complex and hierarchical spatial structure with beetles and larvae aggregating within individual trees, infestations with multiple infested trees, and regional outbreaks that comprise a large...

A Hierarchical Modeling for Reactive Power Optimization With Joint Transmission and Distribution Networks by Curve Fitting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ding, Tao; Li, Cheng; Huang, Can

Here, in order to solve the reactive power optimization with joint transmission and distribution networks, a hierarchical modeling method is proposed in this paper. It allows the reactive power optimization of transmission and distribution networks to be performed separately, leading to a master–slave structure and improves traditional centralized modeling methods by alleviating the big data problem in a control center. Specifically, the transmission-distribution-network coordination issue of the hierarchical modeling method is investigated. First, a curve-fitting approach is developed to provide a cost function of the slave model for the master model, which reflects the impacts of each slave model. Second,more » the transmission and distribution networks are decoupled at feeder buses, and all the distribution networks are coordinated by the master reactive power optimization model to achieve the global optimality. Finally, numerical results on two test systems verify the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical modeling and curve-fitting methods.« less

A neural model of hierarchical reinforcement learning.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Daniel; Voelker, Aaron; Eliasmith, Chris

2017-01-01

We develop a novel, biologically detailed neural model of reinforcement learning (RL) processes in the brain. This model incorporates a broad range of biological features that pose challenges to neural RL, such as temporally extended action sequences, continuous environments involving unknown time delays, and noisy/imprecise computations. Most significantly, we expand the model into the realm of hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL), which divides the RL process into a hierarchy of actions at different levels of abstraction. Here we implement all the major components of HRL in a neural model that captures a variety of known anatomical and physiological properties of the brain. We demonstrate the performance of the model in a range of different environments, in order to emphasize the aim of understanding the brain's general reinforcement learning ability. These results show that the model compares well to previous modelling work and demonstrates improved performance as a result of its hierarchical ability. We also show that the model's behaviour is consistent with available data on human hierarchical RL, and generate several novel predictions.

A Hierarchical Modeling for Reactive Power Optimization With Joint Transmission and Distribution Networks by Curve Fitting

DOE PAGES

Ding, Tao; Li, Cheng; Huang, Can; ...

2017-01-09

Here, in order to solve the reactive power optimization with joint transmission and distribution networks, a hierarchical modeling method is proposed in this paper. It allows the reactive power optimization of transmission and distribution networks to be performed separately, leading to a master–slave structure and improves traditional centralized modeling methods by alleviating the big data problem in a control center. Specifically, the transmission-distribution-network coordination issue of the hierarchical modeling method is investigated. First, a curve-fitting approach is developed to provide a cost function of the slave model for the master model, which reflects the impacts of each slave model. Second,more » the transmission and distribution networks are decoupled at feeder buses, and all the distribution networks are coordinated by the master reactive power optimization model to achieve the global optimality. Finally, numerical results on two test systems verify the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical modeling and curve-fitting methods.« less

Recognizing Chinese characters in digital ink from non-native language writers using hierarchical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Hao; Zhang, Xi-wen

2017-06-01

While Chinese is learned as a second language, its characters are taught step by step from their strokes to components, radicals to components, and their complex relations. Chinese Characters in digital ink from non-native language writers are deformed seriously, thus the global recognition approaches are poorer. So a progressive approach from bottom to top is presented based on hierarchical models. Hierarchical information includes strokes and hierarchical components. Each Chinese character is modeled as a hierarchical tree. Strokes in one Chinese characters in digital ink are classified with Hidden Markov Models and concatenated to the stroke symbol sequence. And then the structure of components in one ink character is extracted. According to the extraction result and the stroke symbol sequence, candidate characters are traversed and scored. Finally, the recognition candidate results are listed by descending. The method of this paper is validated by testing 19815 copies of the handwriting Chinese characters written by foreign students.

The Neural Correlates of Hierarchical Predictions for Perceptual Decisions.

PubMed

Weilnhammer, Veith A; Stuke, Heiner; Sterzer, Philipp; Schmack, Katharina

2018-05-23

Sensory information is inherently noisy, sparse, and ambiguous. In contrast, visual experience is usually clear, detailed, and stable. Bayesian theories of perception resolve this discrepancy by assuming that prior knowledge about the causes underlying sensory stimulation actively shapes perceptual decisions. The CNS is believed to entertain a generative model aligned to dynamic changes in the hierarchical states of our volatile sensory environment. Here, we used model-based fMRI to study the neural correlates of the dynamic updating of hierarchically structured predictions in male and female human observers. We devised a crossmodal associative learning task with covertly interspersed ambiguous trials in which participants engaged in hierarchical learning based on changing contingencies between auditory cues and visual targets. By inverting a Bayesian model of perceptual inference, we estimated individual hierarchical predictions, which significantly biased perceptual decisions under ambiguity. Although "high-level" predictions about the cue-target contingency correlated with activity in supramodal regions such as orbitofrontal cortex and hippocampus, dynamic "low-level" predictions about the conditional target probabilities were associated with activity in retinotopic visual cortex. Our results suggest that our CNS updates distinct representations of hierarchical predictions that continuously affect perceptual decisions in a dynamically changing environment. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Bayesian theories posit that our brain entertains a generative model to provide hierarchical predictions regarding the causes of sensory information. Here, we use behavioral modeling and fMRI to study the neural underpinnings of such hierarchical predictions. We show that "high-level" predictions about the strength of dynamic cue-target contingencies during crossmodal associative learning correlate with activity in orbitofrontal cortex and the hippocampus, whereas "low-level" conditional target probabilities were reflected in retinotopic visual cortex. Our findings empirically corroborate theorizations on the role of hierarchical predictions in visual perception and contribute substantially to a longstanding debate on the link between sensory predictions and orbitofrontal or hippocampal activity. Our work fundamentally advances the mechanistic understanding of perceptual inference in the human brain. Copyright © 2018 the authors 0270-6474/18/385008-14$15.00/0.

An exactly solvable model of hierarchical self-assembly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudowicz, Jacek; Douglas, Jack F.; Freed, Karl F.

2009-06-01

Many living and nonliving structures in the natural world form by hierarchical organization, but physical theories that describe this type of organization are scarce. To address this problem, a model of equilibrium self-assembly is formulated in which dynamically associating species organize into hierarchical structures that preserve their shape at each stage of assembly. In particular, we consider symmetric m-gons that associate at their vertices into Sierpinski gasket structures involving the hierarchical association of triangles, squares, hexagons, etc., at their corner vertices, thereby leading to fractal structures after many generations of assembly. This rather idealized model of hierarchical assembly yields an infinite sequence of self-assembly transitions as the morphology progressively organizes to higher levels of the hierarchy, and these structures coexists at dynamic equilibrium, as found in real hierarchically self-assembling systems such as amyloid fiber forming proteins. Moreover, the transition sharpness progressively grows with increasing m, corresponding to larger and larger loops in the assembled structures. Calculations are provided for several basic thermodynamic properties (including the order parameters for assembly for each stage of the hierarchy, average mass of clusters, specific heat, transition sharpness, etc.) that are required for characterizing the interaction parameters governing this type of self-assembly and for elucidating other basic qualitative aspects of these systems. Our idealized model of hierarchical assembly gives many insights into this ubiquitous type of self-organization process.

Creating Hierarchical Pores by Controlled Linker Thermolysis in Multivariate Metal-Organic Frameworks.

PubMed

Feng, Liang; Yuan, Shuai; Zhang, Liang-Liang; Tan, Kui; Li, Jia-Luo; Kirchon, Angelo; Liu, Ling-Mei; Zhang, Peng; Han, Yu; Chabal, Yves J; Zhou, Hong-Cai

2018-02-14

Sufficient pore size, appropriate stability, and hierarchical porosity are three prerequisites for open frameworks designed for drug delivery, enzyme immobilization, and catalysis involving large molecules. Herein, we report a powerful and general strategy, linker thermolysis, to construct ultrastable hierarchically porous metal-organic frameworks (HP-MOFs) with tunable pore size distribution. Linker instability, usually an undesirable trait of MOFs, was exploited to create mesopores by generating crystal defects throughout a microporous MOF crystal via thermolysis. The crystallinity and stability of HP-MOFs remain after thermolabile linkers are selectively removed from multivariate metal-organic frameworks (MTV-MOFs) through a decarboxylation process. A domain-based linker spatial distribution was found to be critical for creating hierarchical pores inside MTV-MOFs. Furthermore, linker thermolysis promotes the formation of ultrasmall metal oxide nanoparticles immobilized in an open framework that exhibits high catalytic activity for Lewis acid-catalyzed reactions. Most importantly, this work provides fresh insights into the connection between linker apportionment and vacancy distribution, which may shed light on probing the disordered linker apportionment in multivariate systems, a long-standing challenge in the study of MTV-MOFs.

Heterogeneous fractionation profiles of meta-analytic coactivation networks.

PubMed

Laird, Angela R; Riedel, Michael C; Okoe, Mershack; Jianu, Radu; Ray, Kimberly L; Eickhoff, Simon B; Smith, Stephen M; Fox, Peter T; Sutherland, Matthew T

2017-04-01

Computational cognitive neuroimaging approaches can be leveraged to characterize the hierarchical organization of distributed, functionally specialized networks in the human brain. To this end, we performed large-scale mining across the BrainMap database of coordinate-based activation locations from over 10,000 task-based experiments. Meta-analytic coactivation networks were identified by jointly applying independent component analysis (ICA) and meta-analytic connectivity modeling (MACM) across a wide range of model orders (i.e., d=20-300). We then iteratively computed pairwise correlation coefficients for consecutive model orders to compare spatial network topologies, ultimately yielding fractionation profiles delineating how "parent" functional brain systems decompose into constituent "child" sub-networks. Fractionation profiles differed dramatically across canonical networks: some exhibited complex and extensive fractionation into a large number of sub-networks across the full range of model orders, whereas others exhibited little to no decomposition as model order increased. Hierarchical clustering was applied to evaluate this heterogeneity, yielding three distinct groups of network fractionation profiles: high, moderate, and low fractionation. BrainMap-based functional decoding of resultant coactivation networks revealed a multi-domain association regardless of fractionation complexity. Rather than emphasize a cognitive-motor-perceptual gradient, these outcomes suggest the importance of inter-lobar connectivity in functional brain organization. We conclude that high fractionation networks are complex and comprised of many constituent sub-networks reflecting long-range, inter-lobar connectivity, particularly in fronto-parietal regions. In contrast, low fractionation networks may reflect persistent and stable networks that are more internally coherent and exhibit reduced inter-lobar communication. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Heterogeneous fractionation profiles of meta-analytic coactivation networks

PubMed Central

Laird, Angela R.; Riedel, Michael C.; Okoe, Mershack; Jianu, Radu; Ray, Kimberly L.; Eickhoff, Simon B.; Smith, Stephen M.; Fox, Peter T.; Sutherland, Matthew T.

2017-01-01

Computational cognitive neuroimaging approaches can be leveraged to characterize the hierarchical organization of distributed, functionally specialized networks in the human brain. To this end, we performed large-scale mining across the BrainMap database of coordinate-based activation locations from over 10,000 task-based experiments. Meta-analytic coactivation networks were identified by jointly applying independent component analysis (ICA) and meta-analytic connectivity modeling (MACM) across a wide range of model orders (i.e., d = 20 to 300). We then iteratively computed pairwise correlation coefficients for consecutive model orders to compare spatial network topologies, ultimately yielding fractionation profiles delineating how “parent” functional brain systems decompose into constituent “child” sub-networks. Fractionation profiles differed dramatically across canonical networks: some exhibited complex and extensive fractionation into a large number of sub-networks across the full range of model orders, whereas others exhibited little to no decomposition as model order increased. Hierarchical clustering was applied to evaluate this heterogeneity, yielding three distinct groups of network fractionation profiles: high, moderate, and low fractionation. BrainMap-based functional decoding of resultant coactivation networks revealed a multi-domain association regardless of fractionation complexity. Rather than emphasize a cognitive-motor-perceptual gradient, these outcomes suggest the importance of inter-lobar connectivity in functional brain organization. We conclude that high fractionation networks are complex and comprised of many constituent sub-networks reflecting long-range, inter-lobar connectivity, particularly in fronto-parietal regions. In contrast, low fractionation networks may reflect persistent and stable networks that are more internally coherent and exhibit reduced inter-lobar communication. PMID:28222386

Ranking of Business Process Simulation Software Tools with DEX/QQ Hierarchical Decision Model

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The omnipresent need for optimisation requires constant improvements of companies’ business processes (BPs). Minimising the risk of inappropriate BP being implemented is usually performed by simulating the newly developed BP under various initial conditions and “what-if” scenarios. An effectual business process simulations software (BPSS) is a prerequisite for accurate analysis of an BP. Characterisation of an BPSS tool is a challenging task due to the complex selection criteria that includes quality of visual aspects, simulation capabilities, statistical facilities, quality reporting etc. Under such circumstances, making an optimal decision is challenging. Therefore, various decision support models are employed aiding the BPSS tool selection. The currently established decision support models are either proprietary or comprise only a limited subset of criteria, which affects their accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a new hierarchical decision support model for ranking of BPSS based on their technical characteristics by employing DEX and qualitative to quantitative (QQ) methodology. Consequently, the decision expert feeds the required information in a systematic and user friendly manner. There are three significant contributions of the proposed approach. Firstly, the proposed hierarchical model is easily extendible for adding new criteria in the hierarchical structure. Secondly, a fully operational decision support system (DSS) tool that implements the proposed hierarchical model is presented. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical model is assessed by comparing the resulting rankings of BPSS with respect to currently available results. PMID:26871694

Sequential optimization of a terrestrial biosphere model constrained by multiple satellite based products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichii, K.; Kondo, M.; Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Nemani, R. R.

2012-12-01

Various satellite-based spatial products such as evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) are now produced by integration of ground and satellite observations. Effective use of these multiple satellite-based products in terrestrial biosphere models is an important step toward better understanding of terrestrial carbon and water cycles. However, due to the complexity of terrestrial biosphere models with large number of model parameters, the application of these spatial data sets in terrestrial biosphere models is difficult. In this study, we established an effective but simple framework to refine a terrestrial biosphere model, Biome-BGC, using multiple satellite-based products as constraints. We tested the framework in the monsoon Asia region covered by AsiaFlux observations. The framework is based on the hierarchical analysis (Wang et al. 2009) with model parameter optimization constrained by satellite-based spatial data. The Biome-BGC model is separated into several tiers to minimize the freedom of model parameter selections and maximize the independency from the whole model. For example, the snow sub-model is first optimized using MODIS snow cover product, followed by soil water sub-model optimized by satellite-based ET (estimated by an empirical upscaling method; Support Vector Regression (SVR) method; Yang et al. 2007), photosynthesis model optimized by satellite-based GPP (based on SVR method), and respiration and residual carbon cycle models optimized by biomass data. As a result of initial assessment, we found that most of default sub-models (e.g. snow, water cycle and carbon cycle) showed large deviations from remote sensing observations. However, these biases were removed by applying the proposed framework. For example, gross primary productivities were initially underestimated in boreal and temperate forest and overestimated in tropical forests. However, the parameter optimization scheme successfully reduced these biases. Our analysis shows that terrestrial carbon and water cycle simulations in monsoon Asia were greatly improved, and the use of multiple satellite observations with this framework is an effective way for improving terrestrial biosphere models.

Red clump stars and Gaia: calibration of the standard candle using a hierarchical probabilistic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, Keith; Leistedt, Boris; Bovy, Jo; Hogg, David W.

2017-10-01

Distances to individual stars in our own Galaxy are critical in order to piece together the nature of its velocity and spatial structure. Core helium burning red clump (RC) stars have similar luminosities, are abundant throughout the Galaxy and thus constitute good standard candles. We build a hierarchical probabilistic model to quantify the quality of RC stars as standard candles using parallax measurements from the first Gaia data release. A unique aspect of our methodology is to fully account for (and marginalize over) parallax, photometry and dust correction uncertainties, which lead to more robust results than standard approaches. We determine the absolute magnitude and intrinsic dispersion of the RC in 2MASS bands J, H, Ks, Gaia G band and WISE bands W1, W2, W3 and W4. We find that the absolute magnitude of the RC is -1.61 ± 0.01 (in Ks), +0.44 ± 0.01 (in G), -0.93 ± 0.01 (in J), -1.46 ± 0.01 (in H), -1.68 ± 0.02 (in W1), -1.69 ± 0.02 (in W2), -1.67 ± 0.02 (in W3) and -1.76 ± 0.01 mag (in W4). The mean intrinsic dispersion is ˜0.17 ± 0.03 mag across all bands (yielding a typical distance precision of ˜8 per cent). Thus RC stars are reliable and precise standard candles. In addition, we have also re-calibrated the zero-point of the absolute magnitude of the RC in each band, which provides a benchmark for future studies to estimate distances to RC stars. Finally, the parallax error shrinkage in the hierarchical model outlined in this work can be used to obtain more precise parallaxes than Gaia for the most distant RC stars across the Galaxy.

Efficient electronic structure theory via hierarchical scale-adaptive coupled-cluster formalism: I. Theory and computational complexity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyakh, Dmitry I.

2018-03-01

A novel reduced-scaling, general-order coupled-cluster approach is formulated by exploiting hierarchical representations of many-body tensors, combined with the recently suggested formalism of scale-adaptive tensor algebra. Inspired by the hierarchical techniques from the renormalisation group approach, H/H2-matrix algebra and fast multipole method, the computational scaling reduction in our formalism is achieved via coarsening of quantum many-body interactions at larger interaction scales, thus imposing a hierarchical structure on many-body tensors of coupled-cluster theory. In our approach, the interaction scale can be defined on any appropriate Euclidean domain (spatial domain, momentum-space domain, energy domain, etc.). We show that the hierarchically resolved many-body tensors can reduce the storage requirements to O(N), where N is the number of simulated quantum particles. Subsequently, we prove that any connected many-body diagram consisting of a finite number of arbitrary-order tensors, e.g. an arbitrary coupled-cluster diagram, can be evaluated in O(NlogN) floating-point operations. On top of that, we suggest an additional approximation to further reduce the computational complexity of higher order coupled-cluster equations, i.e. equations involving higher than double excitations, which otherwise would introduce a large prefactor into formal O(NlogN) scaling.

Identifying and modeling the structural discontinuities of human interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grauwin, Sebastian; Szell, Michael; Sobolevsky, Stanislav; Hövel, Philipp; Simini, Filippo; Vanhoof, Maarten; Smoreda, Zbigniew; Barabási, Albert-László; Ratti, Carlo

2017-04-01

The idea of a hierarchical spatial organization of society lies at the core of seminal theories in human geography that have strongly influenced our understanding of social organization. Along the same line, the recent availability of large-scale human mobility and communication data has offered novel quantitative insights hinting at a strong geographical confinement of human interactions within neighboring regions, extending to local levels within countries. However, models of human interaction largely ignore this effect. Here, we analyze several country-wide networks of telephone calls - both, mobile and landline - and in either case uncover a systematic decrease of communication induced by borders which we identify as the missing variable in state-of-the-art models. Using this empirical evidence, we propose an alternative modeling framework that naturally stylizes the damping effect of borders. We show that this new notion substantially improves the predictive power of widely used interaction models. This increases our ability to understand, model and predict social activities and to plan the development of infrastructures across multiple scales.

Hierarchical relaxation methods for multispectral pixel classification as applied to target identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, E. A., Jr.

1985-02-01

This report provides insights into the approaches toward image modeling as applied to target detection. The approach is that of examining the energy in prescribed wave-bands which emanate from a target and correlating the emissions. Typically, one might be looking at two or three infrared bands, possibly together with several visual bands. The target is segmented, using both first and second order modeling, into a set of interesting components and these components are correlated so as to enhance the classification process. A Markov-type model is used to provide an a priori assessment of the spatial relationships among critical parts of the target, and a stochastic model using the output of an initial probabilistic labeling is invoked. The tradeoff between this stochastic model and the Markov model is then optimized to yield a best labeling for identification purposes. In an identification of friend or foe (IFF) context, this methodology could be of interest, for it provides the ingredients for such a higher level of understanding.

Identifying and modeling the structural discontinuities of human interactions

PubMed Central

Grauwin, Sebastian; Szell, Michael; Sobolevsky, Stanislav; Hövel, Philipp; Simini, Filippo; Vanhoof, Maarten; Smoreda, Zbigniew; Barabási, Albert-László; Ratti, Carlo

2017-01-01

The idea of a hierarchical spatial organization of society lies at the core of seminal theories in human geography that have strongly influenced our understanding of social organization. Along the same line, the recent availability of large-scale human mobility and communication data has offered novel quantitative insights hinting at a strong geographical confinement of human interactions within neighboring regions, extending to local levels within countries. However, models of human interaction largely ignore this effect. Here, we analyze several country-wide networks of telephone calls - both, mobile and landline - and in either case uncover a systematic decrease of communication induced by borders which we identify as the missing variable in state-of-the-art models. Using this empirical evidence, we propose an alternative modeling framework that naturally stylizes the damping effect of borders. We show that this new notion substantially improves the predictive power of widely used interaction models. This increases our ability to understand, model and predict social activities and to plan the development of infrastructures across multiple scales. PMID:28443647

Identifying and modeling the structural discontinuities of human interactions.

PubMed

Grauwin, Sebastian; Szell, Michael; Sobolevsky, Stanislav; Hövel, Philipp; Simini, Filippo; Vanhoof, Maarten; Smoreda, Zbigniew; Barabási, Albert-László; Ratti, Carlo

2017-04-26

The idea of a hierarchical spatial organization of society lies at the core of seminal theories in human geography that have strongly influenced our understanding of social organization. Along the same line, the recent availability of large-scale human mobility and communication data has offered novel quantitative insights hinting at a strong geographical confinement of human interactions within neighboring regions, extending to local levels within countries. However, models of human interaction largely ignore this effect. Here, we analyze several country-wide networks of telephone calls - both, mobile and landline - and in either case uncover a systematic decrease of communication induced by borders which we identify as the missing variable in state-of-the-art models. Using this empirical evidence, we propose an alternative modeling framework that naturally stylizes the damping effect of borders. We show that this new notion substantially improves the predictive power of widely used interaction models. This increases our ability to understand, model and predict social activities and to plan the development of infrastructures across multiple scales.

Multilevel Hierarchical Modeling of Benthic Macroinvertebrate Responses to Urbanization in Nine Metropolitan Regions across the Conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kashuba, Roxolana; Cha, YoonKyung; Alameddine, Ibrahim; Lee, Boknam; Cuffney, Thomas F.

2010-01-01

Multilevel hierarchical modeling methodology has been developed for use in ecological data analysis. The effect of urbanization on stream macroinvertebrate communities was measured across a gradient of basins in each of nine metropolitan regions across the conterminous United States. The hierarchical nature of this dataset was harnessed in a multi-tiered model structure, predicting both invertebrate response at the basin scale and differences in invertebrate response at the region scale. Ordination site scores, total taxa richness, Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera (EPT) taxa richness, and richness-weighted mean tolerance of organisms at a site were used to describe invertebrate responses. Percentage of urban land cover was used as a basin-level predictor variable. Regional mean precipitation, air temperature, and antecedent agriculture were used as region-level predictor variables. Multilevel hierarchical models were fit to both levels of data simultaneously, borrowing statistical strength from the complete dataset to reduce uncertainty in regional coefficient estimates. Additionally, whereas non-hierarchical regressions were only able to show differing relations between invertebrate responses and urban intensity separately for each region, the multilevel hierarchical regressions were able to explain and quantify those differences within a single model. In this way, this modeling approach directly establishes the importance of antecedent agricultural conditions in masking the response of invertebrates to urbanization in metropolitan regions such as Milwaukee-Green Bay, Wisconsin; Denver, Colorado; and Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas. Also, these models show that regions with high precipitation, such as Atlanta, Georgia; Birmingham, Alabama; and Portland, Oregon, start out with better regional background conditions of invertebrates prior to urbanization but experience faster negative rates of change with urbanization. Ultimately, this urbanization-invertebrate response example is used to detail the multilevel hierarchical construction methodology, showing how the result is a set of models that are both statistically more rigorous and ecologically more interpretable than simple linear regression models.

Part 2. Development of Enhanced Statistical Methods for Assessing Health Effects Associated with an Unknown Number of Major Sources of Multiple Air Pollutants.

PubMed

Park, Eun Sug; Symanski, Elaine; Han, Daikwon; Spiegelman, Clifford

2015-06-01

A major difficulty with assessing source-specific health effects is that source-specific exposures cannot be measured directly; rather, they need to be estimated by a source-apportionment method such as multivariate receptor modeling. The uncertainty in source apportionment (uncertainty in source-specific exposure estimates and model uncertainty due to the unknown number of sources and identifiability conditions) has been largely ignored in previous studies. Also, spatial dependence of multipollutant data collected from multiple monitoring sites has not yet been incorporated into multivariate receptor modeling. The objectives of this project are (1) to develop a multipollutant approach that incorporates both sources of uncertainty in source-apportionment into the assessment of source-specific health effects and (2) to develop enhanced multivariate receptor models that can account for spatial correlations in the multipollutant data collected from multiple sites. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework consisting of multivariate receptor models, health-effects models, and a hierarchical model on latent source contributions. For the health model, we focused on the time-series design in this project. Each combination of number of sources and identifiability conditions (additional constraints on model parameters) defines a different model. We built a set of plausible models with extensive exploratory data analyses and with information from previous studies, and then computed posterior model probability to estimate model uncertainty. Parameter estimation and model uncertainty estimation were implemented simultaneously by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC*) methods. We validated the methods using simulated data. We illustrated the methods using PM2.5 (particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter) speciation data and mortality data from Phoenix, Arizona, and Houston, Texas. The Phoenix data included counts of cardiovascular deaths and daily PM2.5 speciation data from 1995-1997. The Houston data included respiratory mortality data and 24-hour PM2.5 speciation data sampled every six days from a region near the Houston Ship Channel in years 2002-2005. We also developed a Bayesian spatial multivariate receptor modeling approach that, while simultaneously dealing with the unknown number of sources and identifiability conditions, incorporated spatial correlations in the multipollutant data collected from multiple sites into the estimation of source profiles and contributions based on the discrete process convolution model for multivariate spatial processes. This new modeling approach was applied to 24-hour ambient air concentrations of 17 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) measured at nine monitoring sites in Harris County, Texas, during years 2000 to 2005. Simulation results indicated that our methods were accurate in identifying the true model and estimated parameters were close to the true values. The results from our methods agreed in general with previous studies on the source apportionment of the Phoenix data in terms of estimated source profiles and contributions. However, we had a greater number of statistically insignificant findings, which was likely a natural consequence of incorporating uncertainty in the estimated source contributions into the health-effects parameter estimation. For the Houston data, a model with five sources (that seemed to be Sulfate-Rich Secondary Aerosol, Motor Vehicles, Industrial Combustion, Soil/Crustal Matter, and Sea Salt) showed the highest posterior model probability among the candidate models considered when fitted simultaneously to the PM2.5 and mortality data. There was a statistically significant positive association between respiratory mortality and same-day PM2.5 concentrations attributed to one of the sources (probably industrial combustion). The Bayesian spatial multivariate receptor modeling approach applied to the VOC data led to a highest posterior model probability for a model with five sources (that seemed to be refinery, petrochemical production, gasoline evaporation, natural gas, and vehicular exhaust) among several candidate models, with the number of sources varying between three and seven and with different identifiability conditions. Our multipollutant approach assessing source-specific health effects is more advantageous than a single-pollutant approach in that it can estimate total health effects from multiple pollutants and can also identify emission sources that are responsible for adverse health effects. Our Bayesian approach can incorporate not only uncertainty in the estimated source contributions, but also model uncertainty that has not been addressed in previous studies on assessing source-specific health effects. The new Bayesian spatial multivariate receptor modeling approach enables predictions of source contributions at unmonitored sites, minimizing exposure misclassification and providing improved exposure estimates along with their uncertainty estimates, as well as accounting for uncertainty in the number of sources and identifiability conditions.

A Multilevel, Hierarchical Sampling Technique for Spatially Correlated Random Fields

DOE PAGES

Osborn, Sarah; Vassilevski, Panayot S.; Villa, Umberto

2017-10-26

In this paper, we propose an alternative method to generate samples of a spatially correlated random field with applications to large-scale problems for forward propagation of uncertainty. A classical approach for generating these samples is the Karhunen--Loève (KL) decomposition. However, the KL expansion requires solving a dense eigenvalue problem and is therefore computationally infeasible for large-scale problems. Sampling methods based on stochastic partial differential equations provide a highly scalable way to sample Gaussian fields, but the resulting parametrization is mesh dependent. We propose a multilevel decomposition of the stochastic field to allow for scalable, hierarchical sampling based on solving amore » mixed finite element formulation of a stochastic reaction-diffusion equation with a random, white noise source function. Lastly, numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate the scalability of the sampling method as well as numerical results of multilevel Monte Carlo simulations for a subsurface porous media flow application using the proposed sampling method.« less

Hierarchical patch-based co-registration of differently stained histopathology slides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yigitsoy, Mehmet; Schmidt, Günter

2017-03-01

Over the past decades, digital pathology has emerged as an alternative way of looking at the tissue at subcellular level. It enables multiplexed analysis of different cell types at micron level. Information about cell types can be extracted by staining sections of a tissue block using different markers. However, robust fusion of structural and functional information from different stains is necessary for reproducible multiplexed analysis. Such a fusion can be obtained via image co-registration by establishing spatial correspondences between tissue sections. Spatial correspondences can then be used to transfer various statistics about cell types between sections. However, the multi-modal nature of images and sparse distribution of interesting cell types pose several challenges for the registration of differently stained tissue sections. In this work, we propose a co-registration framework that efficiently addresses such challenges. We present a hierarchical patch-based registration of intensity normalized tissue sections. Preliminary experiments demonstrate the potential of the proposed technique for the fusion of multi-modal information from differently stained digital histopathology sections.

A Multilevel, Hierarchical Sampling Technique for Spatially Correlated Random Fields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Osborn, Sarah; Vassilevski, Panayot S.; Villa, Umberto

In this paper, we propose an alternative method to generate samples of a spatially correlated random field with applications to large-scale problems for forward propagation of uncertainty. A classical approach for generating these samples is the Karhunen--Loève (KL) decomposition. However, the KL expansion requires solving a dense eigenvalue problem and is therefore computationally infeasible for large-scale problems. Sampling methods based on stochastic partial differential equations provide a highly scalable way to sample Gaussian fields, but the resulting parametrization is mesh dependent. We propose a multilevel decomposition of the stochastic field to allow for scalable, hierarchical sampling based on solving amore » mixed finite element formulation of a stochastic reaction-diffusion equation with a random, white noise source function. Lastly, numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate the scalability of the sampling method as well as numerical results of multilevel Monte Carlo simulations for a subsurface porous media flow application using the proposed sampling method.« less

Hierarchical assembly of viral nanotemplates with encoded microparticles via nucleic acid hybridization.

PubMed

Tan, Wui Siew; Lewis, Christina L; Horelik, Nicholas E; Pregibon, Daniel C; Doyle, Patrick S; Yi, Hyunmin

2008-11-04

We demonstrate hierarchical assembly of tobacco mosaic virus (TMV)-based nanotemplates with hydrogel-based encoded microparticles via nucleic acid hybridization. TMV nanotemplates possess a highly defined structure and a genetically engineered high density thiol functionality. The encoded microparticles are produced in a high throughput microfluidic device via stop-flow lithography (SFL) and consist of spatially discrete regions containing encoded identity information, an internal control, and capture DNAs. For the hybridization-based assembly, partially disassembled TMVs were programmed with linker DNAs that contain sequences complementary to both the virus 5' end and a selected capture DNA. Fluorescence microscopy, atomic force microscopy (AFM), and confocal microscopy results clearly indicate facile assembly of TMV nanotemplates onto microparticles with high spatial and sequence selectivity. We anticipate that our hybridization-based assembly strategy could be employed to create multifunctional viral-synthetic hybrid materials in a rapid and high-throughput manner. Additionally, we believe that these viral-synthetic hybrid microparticles may find broad applications in high capacity, multiplexed target sensing.

Genetic diversity and population structure in contemporary house sparrow populations along an urbanization gradient

PubMed Central

Vangestel, C; Mergeay, J; Dawson, D A; Callens, T; Vandomme, V; Lens, L

2012-01-01

House sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have suffered major declines in urban as well as rural areas, while remaining relatively stable in suburban ones. Yet, to date no exhaustive attempt has been made to examine how, and to what extent, spatial variation in population demography is reflected in genetic population structuring along contemporary urbanization gradients. Here we use putatively neutral microsatellite loci to study if and how genetic variation can be partitioned in a hierarchical way among different urbanization classes. Principal coordinate analyses did not support the hypothesis that urban/suburban and rural populations comprise two distinct genetic clusters. Comparison of FST values at different hierarchical scales revealed drift as an important force of population differentiation. Redundancy analyses revealed that genetic structure was strongly affected by both spatial variation and level of urbanization. The results shown here can be used as baseline information for future genetic monitoring programmes and provide additional insights into contemporary house sparrow dynamics along urbanization gradients. PMID:22588131

Genetic diversity and population structure in contemporary house sparrow populations along an urbanization gradient.

PubMed

Vangestel, C; Mergeay, J; Dawson, D A; Callens, T; Vandomme, V; Lens, L

2012-09-01

House sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have suffered major declines in urban as well as rural areas, while remaining relatively stable in suburban ones. Yet, to date no exhaustive attempt has been made to examine how, and to what extent, spatial variation in population demography is reflected in genetic population structuring along contemporary urbanization gradients. Here we use putatively neutral microsatellite loci to study if and how genetic variation can be partitioned in a hierarchical way among different urbanization classes. Principal coordinate analyses did not support the hypothesis that urban/suburban and rural populations comprise two distinct genetic clusters. Comparison of FST values at different hierarchical scales revealed drift as an important force of population differentiation. Redundancy analyses revealed that genetic structure was strongly affected by both spatial variation and level of urbanization. The results shown here can be used as baseline information for future genetic monitoring programmes and provide additional insights into contemporary house sparrow dynamics along urbanization gradients.

Hierarchically Ordered Nanopatterns for Spatial Control of Biomolecules

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The development and study of a benchtop, high-throughput, and inexpensive fabrication strategy to obtain hierarchical patterns of biomolecules with sub-50 nm resolution is presented. A diblock copolymer of polystyrene-b-poly(ethylene oxide), PS-b-PEO, is synthesized with biotin capping the PEO block and 4-bromostyrene copolymerized within the polystyrene block at 5 wt %. These two handles allow thin films of the block copolymer to be postfunctionalized with biotinylated biomolecules of interest and to obtain micropatterns of nanoscale-ordered films via photolithography. The design of this single polymer further allows access to two distinct superficial nanopatterns (lines and dots), where the PEO cylinders are oriented parallel or perpendicular to the substrate. Moreover, we present a strategy to obtain hierarchical mixed morphologies: a thin-film coating of cylinders both parallel and perpendicular to the substrate can be obtained by tuning the solvent annealing and irradiation conditions. PMID:25363506

Hierarchically Ordered Nanopatterns for Spatial Control of Biomolecules

DOE PAGES

Tran, Helen; Ronaldson, Kacey; Bailey, Nevette A.; ...

2014-11-04

We present the development and study of a benchtop, high-throughput, and inexpensive fabrication strategy to obtain hierarchical patterns of biomolecules with sub-50 nm resolution. A diblock copolymer of polystyrene-b-poly(ethylene oxide), PS-b-PEO, is synthesized with biotin capping the PEO block and 4-bromostyrene copolymerized within the polystyrene block at 5 wt %. These two handles allow thin films of the block copolymer to be postfunctionalized with biotinylated biomolecules of interest and to obtain micropatterns of nanoscale-ordered films via photolithography. The design of this single polymer further allows access to two distinct superficial nanopatterns (lines and dots), where the PEO cylinders are orientedmore » parallel or perpendicular to the substrate. Moreover, we present a strategy to obtain hierarchical mixed morphologies: a thin-film coating of cylinders both parallel and perpendicular to the substrate can be obtained by tuning the solvent annealing and irradiation conditions.« less

Tailored hierarchical micelle architectures using living crystallization-driven self-assembly in two dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudson, Zachary M.; Boott, Charlotte E.; Robinson, Matthew E.; Rupar, Paul A.; Winnik, Mitchell A.; Manners, Ian

2014-10-01

Recent advances in the self-assembly of block copolymers have enabled the precise fabrication of hierarchical nanostructures using low-cost solution-phase protocols. However, the preparation of well-defined and complex planar nanostructures in which the size is controlled in two dimensions (2D) has remained a challenge. Using a series of platelet-forming block copolymers, we have demonstrated through quantitative experiments that the living crystallization-driven self-assembly (CDSA) approach can be extended to growth in 2D. We used 2D CDSA to prepare uniform lenticular platelet micelles of controlled size and to construct precisely concentric lenticular micelles composed of spatially distinct functional regions, as well as complex structures analogous to nanoscale single- and double-headed arrows and spears. These methods represent a route to hierarchical nanostructures that can be tailored in 2D, with potential applications as diverse as liquid crystals, diagnostic technology and composite reinforcement.

Mapping malaria incidence distribution that accounts for environmental factors in Maputo Province - Mozambique

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The objective was to study if an association exists between the incidence of malaria and some weather parameters in tropical Maputo province, Mozambique. Methods A Bayesian hierarchical model to malaria count data aggregated at district level over a two years period is formulated. This model made it possible to account for spatial area variations. The model was extended to include environmental covariates temperature and rainfall. Study period was then divided into two climate conditions: rainy and dry seasons. The incidences of malaria between the two seasons were compared. Parameter estimation and inference were carried out using MCMC simulation techniques based on Poisson variation. Model comparisons are made using DIC. Results For winter season, in 2001 the temperature covariate with estimated value of -8.88 shows no association to malaria incidence. In year 2002, the parameter estimation of the same covariate resulted in 5.498 of positive level of association. In both years rainfall covariate determines no dependency to malaria incidence. Malaria transmission is higher in wet season with both covariates positively related to malaria with posterior means 1.99 and 2.83 in year 2001. For 2002 only temperature is associated to malaria incidence with estimated value 2.23. Conclusions The incidence of malaria in year 2001, presents an independent spatial pattern for temperature in summer and for rainfall in winter seasons respectively. In year 2002 temperature determines the spatial pattern of malaria incidence in the region. Temperature influences the model in cases where both covariates are introduced in winter and summer season. Its influence is extended to the summer model with temperature covariate only. It is reasonable to state that with the occurrence of high temperatures, malaria incidence had certainly escalated in this year. PMID:20302674

Facing the scaling problem: A multi-methodical approach to simulate soil erosion at hillslope and catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmengler, A. C.; Vlek, P. L. G.

2012-04-01

Modelling soil erosion requires a holistic understanding of the sediment dynamics in a complex environment. As most erosion models are scale-dependent and their parameterization is spatially limited, their application often requires special care, particularly in data-scarce environments. This study presents a hierarchical approach to overcome the limitations of a single model by using various quantitative methods and soil erosion models to cope with the issues of scale. At hillslope scale, the physically-based Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP)-model is used to simulate soil loss and deposition processes. Model simulations of soil loss vary between 5 to 50 t ha-1 yr-1 dependent on the spatial location on the hillslope and have only limited correspondence with the results of the 137Cs technique. These differences in absolute soil loss values could be either due to internal shortcomings of each approach or to external scale-related uncertainties. Pedo-geomorphological soil investigations along a catena confirm that estimations by the 137Cs technique are more appropriate in reflecting both the spatial extent and magnitude of soil erosion at hillslope scale. In order to account for sediment dynamics at a larger scale, the spatially-distributed WaTEM/SEDEM model is used to simulate soil erosion at catchment scale and to predict sediment delivery rates into a small water reservoir. Predicted sediment yield rates are compared with results gained from a bathymetric survey and sediment core analysis. Results show that specific sediment rates of 0.6 t ha-1 yr-1 by the model are in close agreement with observed sediment yield calculated from stratigraphical changes and downcore variations in 137Cs concentrations. Sediment erosion rates averaged over the entire catchment of 1 to 2 t ha-1 yr-1 are significantly lower than results obtained at hillslope scale confirming an inverse correlation between the magnitude of erosion rates and the spatial scale of the model. The study has shown that the use of multiple methods facilitates the calibration and validation of models and might provide a more accurate measure for soil erosion rates in ungauged catchments. Moreover, the approach could be used to identify the most appropriate working and operational scales for soil erosion modelling.

Simple and Hierarchical Models for Stochastic Test Misgrading.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Jianjun

1993-01-01

Test misgrading is treated as a stochastic process. The expected number of misgradings, inter-occurrence time of misgradings, and waiting time for the "n"th misgrading are discussed based on a simple Poisson model and a hierarchical Beta-Poisson model. Examples of model construction are given. (SLD)