The Association between Environmental Factors and Scarlet Fever Incidence in Beijing Region: Using GIS and Spatial Regression Models

PubMed Central

Mahara, Gehendra; Wang, Chao; Yang, Kun; Chen, Sipeng; Guo, Jin; Gao, Qi; Wang, Wei; Wang, Quanyi; Guo, Xiuhua

2016-01-01

(1) Background: Evidence regarding scarlet fever and its relationship with meteorological, including air pollution factors, is not very available. This study aimed to examine the relationship between ambient air pollutants and meteorological factors with scarlet fever occurrence in Beijing, China. (2) Methods: A retrospective ecological study was carried out to distinguish the epidemic characteristics of scarlet fever incidence in Beijing districts from 2013 to 2014. Daily incidence and corresponding air pollutant and meteorological data were used to develop the model. Global Moran’s I statistic and Anselin’s local Moran’s I (LISA) were applied to detect the spatial autocorrelation (spatial dependency) and clusters of scarlet fever incidence. The spatial lag model (SLM) and spatial error model (SEM) including ordinary least squares (OLS) models were then applied to probe the association between scarlet fever incidence and meteorological including air pollution factors. (3) Results: Among the 5491 cases, more than half (62%) were male, and more than one-third (37.8%) were female, with the annual average incidence rate 14.64 per 100,000 population. Spatial autocorrelation analysis exhibited the existence of spatial dependence; therefore, we applied spatial regression models. After comparing the values of R-square, log-likelihood and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) among the three models, the OLS model (R2 = 0.0741, log likelihood = −1819.69, AIC = 3665.38), SLM (R2 = 0.0786, log likelihood = −1819.04, AIC = 3665.08) and SEM (R2 = 0.0743, log likelihood = −1819.67, AIC = 3665.36), identified that the spatial lag model (SLM) was best for model fit for the regression model. There was a positive significant association between nitrogen oxide (p = 0.027), rainfall (p = 0.036) and sunshine hour (p = 0.048), while the relative humidity (p = 0.034) had an adverse association with scarlet fever incidence in SLM. (4) Conclusions: Our findings indicated that meteorological, as well as air pollutant factors may increase the incidence of scarlet fever; these findings may help to guide scarlet fever control programs and targeting the intervention. PMID:27827946

The Association between Environmental Factors and Scarlet Fever Incidence in Beijing Region: Using GIS and Spatial Regression Models.

PubMed

Mahara, Gehendra; Wang, Chao; Yang, Kun; Chen, Sipeng; Guo, Jin; Gao, Qi; Wang, Wei; Wang, Quanyi; Guo, Xiuhua

2016-11-04

(1) Background: Evidence regarding scarlet fever and its relationship with meteorological, including air pollution factors, is not very available. This study aimed to examine the relationship between ambient air pollutants and meteorological factors with scarlet fever occurrence in Beijing, China. (2) Methods: A retrospective ecological study was carried out to distinguish the epidemic characteristics of scarlet fever incidence in Beijing districts from 2013 to 2014. Daily incidence and corresponding air pollutant and meteorological data were used to develop the model. Global Moran's I statistic and Anselin's local Moran's I (LISA) were applied to detect the spatial autocorrelation (spatial dependency) and clusters of scarlet fever incidence. The spatial lag model (SLM) and spatial error model (SEM) including ordinary least squares (OLS) models were then applied to probe the association between scarlet fever incidence and meteorological including air pollution factors. (3) Results: Among the 5491 cases, more than half (62%) were male, and more than one-third (37.8%) were female, with the annual average incidence rate 14.64 per 100,000 population. Spatial autocorrelation analysis exhibited the existence of spatial dependence; therefore, we applied spatial regression models. After comparing the values of R-square, log-likelihood and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) among the three models, the OLS model (R² = 0.0741, log likelihood = -1819.69, AIC = 3665.38), SLM (R² = 0.0786, log likelihood = -1819.04, AIC = 3665.08) and SEM (R² = 0.0743, log likelihood = -1819.67, AIC = 3665.36), identified that the spatial lag model (SLM) was best for model fit for the regression model. There was a positive significant association between nitrogen oxide ( p = 0.027), rainfall ( p = 0.036) and sunshine hour ( p = 0.048), while the relative humidity ( p = 0.034) had an adverse association with scarlet fever incidence in SLM. (4) Conclusions: Our findings indicated that meteorological, as well as air pollutant factors may increase the incidence of scarlet fever; these findings may help to guide scarlet fever control programs and targeting the intervention.

Spatial Assessment of Model Errors from Four Regression Techniques

Treesearch

Lianjun Zhang; Jeffrey H. Gove; Jeffrey H. Gove

2005-01-01

Fomst modelers have attempted to account for the spatial autocorrelations among trees in growth and yield models by applying alternative regression techniques such as linear mixed models (LMM), generalized additive models (GAM), and geographicalIy weighted regression (GWR). However, the model errors are commonly assessed using average errors across the entire study...

A scan statistic for binary outcome based on hypergeometric probability model, with an application to detecting spatial clusters of Japanese encephalitis.

PubMed

Zhao, Xing; Zhou, Xiao-Hua; Feng, Zijian; Guo, Pengfei; He, Hongyan; Zhang, Tao; Duan, Lei; Li, Xiaosong

2013-01-01

As a useful tool for geographical cluster detection of events, the spatial scan statistic is widely applied in many fields and plays an increasingly important role. The classic version of the spatial scan statistic for the binary outcome is developed by Kulldorff, based on the Bernoulli or the Poisson probability model. In this paper, we apply the Hypergeometric probability model to construct the likelihood function under the null hypothesis. Compared with existing methods, the likelihood function under the null hypothesis is an alternative and indirect method to identify the potential cluster, and the test statistic is the extreme value of the likelihood function. Similar with Kulldorff's methods, we adopt Monte Carlo test for the test of significance. Both methods are applied for detecting spatial clusters of Japanese encephalitis in Sichuan province, China, in 2009, and the detected clusters are identical. Through a simulation to independent benchmark data, it is indicated that the test statistic based on the Hypergeometric model outweighs Kulldorff's statistics for clusters of high population density or large size; otherwise Kulldorff's statistics are superior.

Accounting for spatial effects in land use regression for urban air pollution modeling.

PubMed

Bertazzon, Stefania; Johnson, Markey; Eccles, Kristin; Kaplan, Gilaad G

2015-01-01

In order to accurately assess air pollution risks, health studies require spatially resolved pollution concentrations. Land-use regression (LUR) models estimate ambient concentrations at a fine spatial scale. However, spatial effects such as spatial non-stationarity and spatial autocorrelation can reduce the accuracy of LUR estimates by increasing regression errors and uncertainty; and statistical methods for resolving these effects--e.g., spatially autoregressive (SAR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models--may be difficult to apply simultaneously. We used an alternate approach to address spatial non-stationarity and spatial autocorrelation in LUR models for nitrogen dioxide. Traditional models were re-specified to include a variable capturing wind speed and direction, and re-fit as GWR models. Mean R(2) values for the resulting GWR-wind models (summer: 0.86, winter: 0.73) showed a 10-20% improvement over traditional LUR models. GWR-wind models effectively addressed both spatial effects and produced meaningful predictive models. These results suggest a useful method for improving spatially explicit models. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Hedonic approaches based on spatial econometrics and spatial statistics: application to evaluation of project benefits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsutsumi, Morito; Seya, Hajime

2009-12-01

This study discusses the theoretical foundation of the application of spatial hedonic approaches—the hedonic approach employing spatial econometrics or/and spatial statistics—to benefits evaluation. The study highlights the limitations of the spatial econometrics approach since it uses a spatial weight matrix that is not employed by the spatial statistics approach. Further, the study presents empirical analyses by applying the Spatial Autoregressive Error Model (SAEM), which is based on the spatial econometrics approach, and the Spatial Process Model (SPM), which is based on the spatial statistics approach. SPMs are conducted based on both isotropy and anisotropy and applied to different mesh sizes. The empirical analysis reveals that the estimated benefits are quite different, especially between isotropic and anisotropic SPM and between isotropic SPM and SAEM; the estimated benefits are similar for SAEM and anisotropic SPM. The study demonstrates that the mesh size does not affect the estimated amount of benefits. Finally, the study provides a confidence interval for the estimated benefits and raises an issue with regard to benefit evaluation.

A spatially filtered multilevel model to account for spatial dependency: application to self-rated health status in South Korea

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background This study aims to suggest an approach that integrates multilevel models and eigenvector spatial filtering methods and apply it to a case study of self-rated health status in South Korea. In many previous health-related studies, multilevel models and single-level spatial regression are used separately. However, the two methods should be used in conjunction because the objectives of both approaches are important in health-related analyses. The multilevel model enables the simultaneous analysis of both individual and neighborhood factors influencing health outcomes. However, the results of conventional multilevel models are potentially misleading when spatial dependency across neighborhoods exists. Spatial dependency in health-related data indicates that health outcomes in nearby neighborhoods are more similar to each other than those in distant neighborhoods. Spatial regression models can address this problem by modeling spatial dependency. This study explores the possibility of integrating a multilevel model and eigenvector spatial filtering, an advanced spatial regression for addressing spatial dependency in datasets. Methods In this spatially filtered multilevel model, eigenvectors function as additional explanatory variables accounting for unexplained spatial dependency within the neighborhood-level error. The specification addresses the inability of conventional multilevel models to account for spatial dependency, and thereby, generates more robust outputs. Results The findings show that sex, employment status, monthly household income, and perceived levels of stress are significantly associated with self-rated health status. Residents living in neighborhoods with low deprivation and a high doctor-to-resident ratio tend to report higher health status. The spatially filtered multilevel model provides unbiased estimations and improves the explanatory power of the model compared to conventional multilevel models although there are no changes in the signs of parameters and the significance levels between the two models in this case study. Conclusions The integrated approach proposed in this paper is a useful tool for understanding the geographical distribution of self-rated health status within a multilevel framework. In future research, it would be useful to apply the spatially filtered multilevel model to other datasets in order to clarify the differences between the two models. It is anticipated that this integrated method will also out-perform conventional models when it is used in other contexts. PMID:24571639

Functional CAR models for large spatially correlated functional datasets.

PubMed

Zhang, Lin; Baladandayuthapani, Veerabhadran; Zhu, Hongxiao; Baggerly, Keith A; Majewski, Tadeusz; Czerniak, Bogdan A; Morris, Jeffrey S

2016-01-01

We develop a functional conditional autoregressive (CAR) model for spatially correlated data for which functions are collected on areal units of a lattice. Our model performs functional response regression while accounting for spatial correlations with potentially nonseparable and nonstationary covariance structure, in both the space and functional domains. We show theoretically that our construction leads to a CAR model at each functional location, with spatial covariance parameters varying and borrowing strength across the functional domain. Using basis transformation strategies, the nonseparable spatial-functional model is computationally scalable to enormous functional datasets, generalizable to different basis functions, and can be used on functions defined on higher dimensional domains such as images. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that accounting for the spatial correlation in our modeling leads to improved functional regression performance. Applied to a high-throughput spatially correlated copy number dataset, the model identifies genetic markers not identified by comparable methods that ignore spatial correlations.

Hydrologic Implications of Dynamical and Statistical Approaches to Downscaling Climate Model Outputs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, Andrew W; Leung, Lai R; Sridhar, V

Six approaches for downscaling climate model outputs for use in hydrologic simulation were evaluated, with particular emphasis on each method's ability to produce precipitation and other variables used to drive a macroscale hydrology model applied at much higher spatial resolution than the climate model. Comparisons were made on the basis of a twenty-year retrospective (1975–1995) climate simulation produced by the NCAR-DOE Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and the implications of the comparison for a future (2040–2060) PCM climate scenario were also explored. The six approaches were made up of three relatively simple statistical downscaling methods – linear interpolation (LI), spatial disaggregationmore » (SD), and bias-correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) – each applied to both PCM output directly (at T42 spatial resolution), and after dynamical downscaling via a Regional Climate Model (RCM – at ½-degree spatial resolution), for downscaling the climate model outputs to the 1/8-degree spatial resolution of the hydrological model. For the retrospective climate simulation, results were compared to an observed gridded climatology of temperature and precipitation, and gridded hydrologic variables resulting from forcing the hydrologic model with observations. The most significant findings are that the BCSD method was successful in reproducing the main features of the observed hydrometeorology from the retrospective climate simulation, when applied to both PCM and RCM outputs. Linear interpolation produced better results using RCM output than PCM output, but both methods (PCM-LI and RCM-LI) lead to unacceptably biased hydrologic simulations. Spatial disaggregation of the PCM output produced results similar to those achieved with the RCM interpolated output; nonetheless, neither PCM nor RCM output was useful for hydrologic simulation purposes without a bias-correction step. For the future climate scenario, only the BCSD-method (using PCM or RCM) was able to produce hydrologically plausible results. With the BCSD method, the RCM-derived hydrology was more sensitive to climate change than the PCM-derived hydrology.« less

Spatial occupancy models for predicting metapopulation dynamics and viability following reintroduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chandler, Richard B.; Muths, Erin L.; Sigafus, Brent H.; Schwalbe, Cecil R.; Jarchow, Christopher J.; Hossack, Blake R.

2015-01-01

Synthesis and applications. This work demonstrates how spatio-temporal statistical models based on ecological theory can be applied to forecast the outcomes of conservation actions such as reintroduction. Our spatial occupancy model should be particularly useful when management agencies lack the funds to collect intensive individual-level data.

Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri

2017-05-01

This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

Linear mixing model applied to coarse spatial resolution data from multispectral satellite sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holben, Brent N.; Shimabukuro, Yosio E.

1993-01-01

A linear mixing model was applied to coarse spatial resolution data from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer. The reflective component of the 3.55-3.95 micron channel was used with the two reflective channels 0.58-0.68 micron and 0.725-1.1 micron to run a constrained least squares model to generate fraction images for an area in the west central region of Brazil. The fraction images were compared with an unsupervised classification derived from Landsat TM data acquired on the same day. The relationship between the fraction images and normalized difference vegetation index images show the potential of the unmixing techniques when using coarse spatial resolution data for global studies.

A New Methodology of Spatial Cross-Correlation Analysis

PubMed Central

Chen, Yanguang

2015-01-01

Spatial correlation modeling comprises both spatial autocorrelation and spatial cross-correlation processes. The spatial autocorrelation theory has been well-developed. It is necessary to advance the method of spatial cross-correlation analysis to supplement the autocorrelation analysis. This paper presents a set of models and analytical procedures for spatial cross-correlation analysis. By analogy with Moran’s index newly expressed in a spatial quadratic form, a theoretical framework is derived for geographical cross-correlation modeling. First, two sets of spatial cross-correlation coefficients are defined, including a global spatial cross-correlation coefficient and local spatial cross-correlation coefficients. Second, a pair of scatterplots of spatial cross-correlation is proposed, and the plots can be used to visually reveal the causality behind spatial systems. Based on the global cross-correlation coefficient, Pearson’s correlation coefficient can be decomposed into two parts: direct correlation (partial correlation) and indirect correlation (spatial cross-correlation). As an example, the methodology is applied to the relationships between China’s urbanization and economic development to illustrate how to model spatial cross-correlation phenomena. This study is an introduction to developing the theory of spatial cross-correlation, and future geographical spatial analysis might benefit from these models and indexes. PMID:25993120

A new methodology of spatial cross-correlation analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Yanguang

2015-01-01

Spatial correlation modeling comprises both spatial autocorrelation and spatial cross-correlation processes. The spatial autocorrelation theory has been well-developed. It is necessary to advance the method of spatial cross-correlation analysis to supplement the autocorrelation analysis. This paper presents a set of models and analytical procedures for spatial cross-correlation analysis. By analogy with Moran's index newly expressed in a spatial quadratic form, a theoretical framework is derived for geographical cross-correlation modeling. First, two sets of spatial cross-correlation coefficients are defined, including a global spatial cross-correlation coefficient and local spatial cross-correlation coefficients. Second, a pair of scatterplots of spatial cross-correlation is proposed, and the plots can be used to visually reveal the causality behind spatial systems. Based on the global cross-correlation coefficient, Pearson's correlation coefficient can be decomposed into two parts: direct correlation (partial correlation) and indirect correlation (spatial cross-correlation). As an example, the methodology is applied to the relationships between China's urbanization and economic development to illustrate how to model spatial cross-correlation phenomena. This study is an introduction to developing the theory of spatial cross-correlation, and future geographical spatial analysis might benefit from these models and indexes.

Solving Large-scale Spatial Optimization Problems in Water Resources Management through Spatial Evolutionary Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Cai, X.

2007-12-01

A water resources system can be defined as a large-scale spatial system, within which distributed ecological system interacts with the stream network and ground water system. Water resources management, the causative factors and hence the solutions to be developed have a significant spatial dimension. This motivates a modeling analysis of water resources management within a spatial analytical framework, where data is usually geo- referenced and in the form of a map. One of the important functions of Geographic information systems (GIS) is to identify spatial patterns of environmental variables. The role of spatial patterns in water resources management has been well established in the literature particularly regarding how to design better spatial patterns for satisfying the designated objectives of water resources management. Evolutionary algorithms (EA) have been demonstrated to be successful in solving complex optimization models for water resources management due to its flexibility to incorporate complex simulation models in the optimal search procedure. The idea of combining GIS and EA motivates the development and application of spatial evolutionary algorithms (SEA). SEA assimilates spatial information into EA, and even changes the representation and operators of EA. In an EA used for water resources management, the mathematical optimization model should be modified to account the spatial patterns; however, spatial patterns are usually implicit, and it is difficult to impose appropriate patterns to spatial data. Also it is difficult to express complex spatial patterns by explicit constraints included in the EA. The GIS can help identify the spatial linkages and correlations based on the spatial knowledge of the problem. These linkages are incorporated in the fitness function for the preference of the compatible vegetation distribution. Unlike a regular GA for spatial models, the SEA employs a special hierarchical hyper-population and spatial genetic operators to represent spatial variables in a more efficient way. The hyper-population consists of a set of populations, which correspond to the spatial distributions of the individual agents (organisms). Furthermore spatial crossover and mutation operators are designed in accordance with the tree representation and then applied to both organisms and populations. This study applies the SEA to a specific problem of water resources management- maximizing the riparian vegetation coverage in accordance with the distributed groundwater system in an arid region. The vegetation coverage is impacted greatly by the nonlinear feedbacks and interactions between vegetation and groundwater and the spatial variability of groundwater. The SEA is applied to search for an optimal vegetation configuration compatible to the groundwater flow. The results from this example demonstrate the effectiveness of the SEA. Extension of the algorithm for other water resources management problems is discussed.

Decoding and Reconstructing the Focus of Spatial Attention from the Topography of Alpha-band Oscillations.

PubMed

Samaha, Jason; Sprague, Thomas C; Postle, Bradley R

2016-08-01

Many aspects of perception and cognition are supported by activity in neural populations that are tuned to different stimulus features (e.g., orientation, spatial location, color). Goal-directed behavior, such as sustained attention, requires a mechanism for the selective prioritization of contextually appropriate representations. A candidate mechanism of sustained spatial attention is neural activity in the alpha band (8-13 Hz), whose power in the human EEG covaries with the focus of covert attention. Here, we applied an inverted encoding model to assess whether spatially selective neural responses could be recovered from the topography of alpha-band oscillations during spatial attention. Participants were cued to covertly attend to one of six spatial locations arranged concentrically around fixation while EEG was recorded. A linear classifier applied to EEG data during sustained attention demonstrated successful classification of the attended location from the topography of alpha power, although not from other frequency bands. We next sought to reconstruct the focus of spatial attention over time by applying inverted encoding models to the topography of alpha power and phase. Alpha power, but not phase, allowed for robust reconstructions of the specific attended location beginning around 450 msec postcue, an onset earlier than previous reports. These results demonstrate that posterior alpha-band oscillations can be used to track activity in feature-selective neural populations with high temporal precision during the deployment of covert spatial attention.

Representing spatial and temporal complexity in ecohydrological models: a meta-analysis focusing on groundwater - surface water interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, Karlie; Mika, Sarah; Kolbe, Tamara; Abbott, Ben; Ciocca, Francesco; Marruedo, Amaia; Hannah, David; Schmidt, Christian; Fleckenstein, Jan; Karuse, Stefan

2016-04-01

Sub-surface hydrologic processes are highly dynamic, varying spatially and temporally with strong links to the geomorphology and hydrogeologic properties of an area. This spatial and temporal complexity is a critical regulator of biogeochemical and ecological processes within the interface groundwater - surface water (GW-SW) ecohydrological interface and adjacent ecosystems. Many GW-SW models have attempted to capture this spatial and temporal complexity with varying degrees of success. The incorporation of spatial and temporal complexity within GW-SW model configuration is important to investigate interactions with transient storage and subsurface geology, infiltration and recharge, and mass balance of exchange fluxes at the GW-SW ecohydrological interface. Additionally, characterising spatial and temporal complexity in GW-SW models is essential to derive predictions using realistic environmental conditions. In this paper we conduct a systematic Web of Science meta-analysis of conceptual, hydrodynamic, and reactive and heat transport models of the GW-SW ecohydrological interface since 2004 to explore how these models handled spatial and temporal complexity. The freshwater - groundwater ecohydrological interface was the most commonly represented in publications between 2004 and 2014 with 91% of papers followed by marine 6% and estuarine systems with 3% of papers. Of the GW-SW models published since 2004, the 52% have focused on hydrodynamic processes and <15% covered more than one process (e.g. heat and reactive transport). Within the hydrodynamic subset, 25% of models focused on a vertical depth of <5m. The primary scientific and technological limitations of incorporating spatial and temporal variability into GW-SW models are identified as the inclusion of woody debris, carbon sources, subsurface geological structures and bioclogging into model parameterization. The technological limitations influence the types of models applied, such as hydrostatic coupled models and fully intrinsic saturated and unsaturated models, and the assumptions or simplifications scientists apply to investigate the GW-SW ecohydrological interface. We investigated the type of modelling approaches applied across different scales (site, reach, catchment, nested catchments) and assessed the simplifications in environmental conditions and complexity that are commonly made in model configuration. Understanding the theoretical concepts that underpin these current modelling approaches is critical for scientists to develop measures to derive predictions from realistic environmental conditions at management relevant scales and establish best-practice modelling approaches for improving the scientific understanding and management of the GW-SW interface. Additionally, the assessment of current modelling approaches informs our proposed framework for the progress of GW-SW models in the future. The framework presented aims to increase future scientific, technological and management integration and the identification of research priorities to allow spatial and temporal complexity to be better incorporated into GW-SW models.

Evaluation of a semi-distributed model through an assessment of the spatial coherence of Intercatchment Groundwater Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Lavenne, Alban; Thirel, Guillaume; Andréassian, Vazken; Perrin, Charles; Ramos, Maria-Helena

2016-04-01

Semi-distributed hydrological models aim to provide useful information to understand and manage the spatial distribution of water resources. However, their evaluation is often limited to independent and single evaluations at each sub-catchment within larger catchments. This enables to qualify model performance at different points, but does not provide a coherent assessment of the overall spatial consistency of the model. To cope with these methodological deficiencies, we propose a two-step strategy. First, we apply a sequential spatial calibration procedure to define spatially consistent model parameters. Secondly, we evaluate the hydrological simulations using variables that involve some dependency between sub-catchments to evaluate the overall coherence of model outputs. In this study, we particularly choose to look at the simulated Intercatchment Groundwater Flows (IGF). The idea is that the water that is lost in one place should be recovered somewhere else within the catchment to guarantee a spatially coherent water balance in time. The model used is a recently developed daily semi-distributed model, which is based on a spatial distribution of the lumped GR5J model. The model has five parameters for each sub-catchments and a streamflow velocity parameter for flow routing between them. It implements two reservoirs, one for production and one for routing, and estimates IGF according to the level of the second in a way that catchment can release water to IGF during high flows and receive water through IGF during low flows. The calibration of the model is performed from upstream to downstream, making an efficient use of spatially distributed streamflow measurements. To take model uncertainty into account, we implemented three variants of the original model structure, each one computing in a different way the IGF in each sub-catchment. The study is applied on over 1000 catchments in France. By exploring a wide area and a variability of hydrometeorological conditions, we aim to detect IGF even between catchments which can be quite distant from one another.

Applying independent component analysis to detect silent speech in magnetic resonance imaging signals.

PubMed

Abe, Kazuhiro; Takahashi, Toshimitsu; Takikawa, Yoriko; Arai, Hajime; Kitazawa, Shigeru

2011-10-01

Independent component analysis (ICA) can be usefully applied to functional imaging studies to evaluate the spatial extent and temporal profile of task-related brain activity. It requires no a priori assumptions about the anatomical areas that are activated or the temporal profile of the activity. We applied spatial ICA to detect a voluntary but hidden response of silent speech. To validate the method against a standard model-based approach, we used the silent speech of a tongue twister as a 'Yes' response to single questions that were delivered at given times. In the first task, we attempted to estimate one number that was chosen by a participant from 10 possibilities. In the second task, we increased the possibilities to 1000. In both tasks, spatial ICA was as effective as the model-based method for determining the number in the subject's mind (80-90% correct per digit), but spatial ICA outperformed the model-based method in terms of time, especially in the 1000-possibility task. In the model-based method, calculation time increased by 30-fold, to 15 h, because of the necessity of testing 1000 possibilities. In contrast, the calculation time for spatial ICA remained as short as 30 min. In addition, spatial ICA detected an unexpected response that occurred by mistake. This advantage was validated in a third task, with 13 500 possibilities, in which participants had the freedom to choose when to make one of four responses. We conclude that spatial ICA is effective for detecting the onset of silent speech, especially when it occurs unexpectedly. © 2011 The Authors. European Journal of Neuroscience © 2011 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Spatial-temporal models for improved county-level annual estimates

Treesearch

Francis Roesch

2009-01-01

The consumers of data derived from extensive forest inventories often seek annual estimates at a finer spatial scale than that which the inventory was designed to provide. This paper discusses a few model-based and model-assisted estimators to consider for county level attributes that can be applied when the sample would otherwise be inadequate for producing low-...

Surrogate modelling for the prediction of spatial fields based on simultaneous dimensionality reduction of high-dimensional input/output spaces.

PubMed

Crevillén-García, D

2018-04-01

Time-consuming numerical simulators for solving groundwater flow and dissolution models of physico-chemical processes in deep aquifers normally require some of the model inputs to be defined in high-dimensional spaces in order to return realistic results. Sometimes, the outputs of interest are spatial fields leading to high-dimensional output spaces. Although Gaussian process emulation has been satisfactorily used for computing faithful and inexpensive approximations of complex simulators, these have been mostly applied to problems defined in low-dimensional input spaces. In this paper, we propose a method for simultaneously reducing the dimensionality of very high-dimensional input and output spaces in Gaussian process emulators for stochastic partial differential equation models while retaining the qualitative features of the original models. This allows us to build a surrogate model for the prediction of spatial fields in such time-consuming simulators. We apply the methodology to a model of convection and dissolution processes occurring during carbon capture and storage.

Cohen's Kappa and classification table metrics 2.0: An ArcView 3.x extension for accuracy assessment of spatially explicit models

Treesearch

Jeff Jenness; J. Judson Wynne

2005-01-01

In the field of spatially explicit modeling, well-developed accuracy assessment methodologies are often poorly applied. Deriving model accuracy metrics have been possible for decades, but these calculations were made by hand or with the use of a spreadsheet application. Accuracy assessments may be useful for: (1) ascertaining the quality of a model; (2) improving model...

Efficient statistical mapping of avian count data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Wikle, C.K.

2005-01-01

We develop a spatial modeling framework for count data that is efficient to implement in high-dimensional prediction problems. We consider spectral parameterizations for the spatially varying mean of a Poisson model. The spectral parameterization of the spatial process is very computationally efficient, enabling effective estimation and prediction in large problems using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We apply this model to creating avian relative abundance maps from North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. Variation in the ability of observers to count birds is modeled as spatially independent noise, resulting in over-dispersion relative to the Poisson assumption. This approach represents an improvement over existing approaches used for spatial modeling of BBS data which are either inefficient for continental scale modeling and prediction or fail to accommodate important distributional features of count data thus leading to inaccurate accounting of prediction uncertainty.

Spatially explicit models for inference about density in unmarked or partially marked populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chandler, Richard B.; Royle, J. Andrew

2013-01-01

Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models represent a major advance over traditional capture–recapture (CR) models because they yield explicit estimates of animal density instead of population size within an unknown area. Furthermore, unlike nonspatial CR methods, SCR models account for heterogeneity in capture probability arising from the juxtaposition of animal activity centers and sample locations. Although the utility of SCR methods is gaining recognition, the requirement that all individuals can be uniquely identified excludes their use in many contexts. In this paper, we develop models for situations in which individual recognition is not possible, thereby allowing SCR concepts to be applied in studies of unmarked or partially marked populations. The data required for our model are spatially referenced counts made on one or more sample occasions at a collection of closely spaced sample units such that individuals can be encountered at multiple locations. Our approach includes a spatial point process for the animal activity centers and uses the spatial correlation in counts as information about the number and location of the activity centers. Camera-traps, hair snares, track plates, sound recordings, and even point counts can yield spatially correlated count data, and thus our model is widely applicable. A simulation study demonstrated that while the posterior mean exhibits frequentist bias on the order of 5–10% in small samples, the posterior mode is an accurate point estimator as long as adequate spatial correlation is present. Marking a subset of the population substantially increases posterior precision and is recommended whenever possible. We applied our model to avian point count data collected on an unmarked population of the northern parula (Parula americana) and obtained a density estimate (posterior mode) of 0.38 (95% CI: 0.19–1.64) birds/ha. Our paper challenges sampling and analytical conventions in ecology by demonstrating that neither spatial independence nor individual recognition is needed to estimate population density—rather, spatial dependence can be informative about individual distribution and density.

Toward seamless hydrologic predictions across spatial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, Luis; Kumar, Rohini; Thober, Stephan; Rakovec, Oldrich; Zink, Matthias; Wanders, Niko; Eisner, Stephanie; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Sutanudjaja, Edwin H.; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten; Attinger, Sabine

2017-09-01

Land surface and hydrologic models (LSMs/HMs) are used at diverse spatial resolutions ranging from catchment-scale (1-10 km) to global-scale (over 50 km) applications. Applying the same model structure at different spatial scales requires that the model estimates similar fluxes independent of the chosen resolution, i.e., fulfills a flux-matching condition across scales. An analysis of state-of-the-art LSMs and HMs reveals that most do not have consistent hydrologic parameter fields. Multiple experiments with the mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP models demonstrate the pitfalls of deficient parameterization practices currently used in most operational models, which are insufficient to satisfy the flux-matching condition. These examples demonstrate that J. Dooge's 1982 statement on the unsolved problem of parameterization in these models remains true. Based on a review of existing parameter regionalization techniques, we postulate that the multiscale parameter regionalization (MPR) technique offers a practical and robust method that provides consistent (seamless) parameter and flux fields across scales. Herein, we develop a general model protocol to describe how MPR can be applied to a particular model and present an example application using the PCR-GLOBWB model. Finally, we discuss potential advantages and limitations of MPR in obtaining the seamless prediction of hydrological fluxes and states across spatial scales.

Sensitivity of snowpack storage to precipitation and temperature using spatial and temporal analog models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luce, Charles H.; Lopez-Burgos, Viviana; Holden, Zachary

2014-12-01

Empirical sensitivity analyses are important for evaluation of the effects of a changing climate on water resources and ecosystems. Although mechanistic models are commonly applied for evaluation of climate effects for snowmelt, empirical relationships provide a first-order validation of the various postulates required for their implementation. Previous studies of empirical sensitivity for April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) in the western United States were developed by regressing interannual variations in SWE to winter precipitation and temperature. This offers a temporal analog for climate change, positing that a warmer future looks like warmer years. Spatial analogs are used to hypothesize that a warmer future may look like warmer places, and are frequently applied alternatives for complex processes, or states/metrics that show little interannual variability (e.g., forest cover). We contrast spatial and temporal analogs for sensitivity of April 1 SWE and the mean residence time of snow (SRT) using data from 524 Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations across the western U.S. We built relatively strong models using spatial analogs to relate temperature and precipitation climatology to snowpack climatology (April 1 SWE, R2=0.87, and SRT, R2=0.81). Although the poorest temporal analog relationships were in areas showing the highest sensitivity to warming, spatial analog models showed consistent performance throughout the range of temperature and precipitation. Generally, slopes from the spatial relationships showed greater thermal sensitivity than the temporal analogs, and high elevation stations showed greater vulnerability using a spatial analog than shown in previous modeling and sensitivity studies. The spatial analog models provide a simple perspective to evaluate potential futures and may be useful in further evaluation of snowpack with warming.

Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring.

PubMed

Carroll, Carlos; Johnson, Devin S; Dunk, Jeffrey R; Zielinski, William J

2010-12-01

Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence-absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site-level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence-absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad-scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km(2) hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies conservation planning. Journal compilation © 2010 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

Increased genomic prediction accuracy in wheat breeding through spatial adjustment of field trial data.

PubMed

Lado, Bettina; Matus, Ivan; Rodríguez, Alejandra; Inostroza, Luis; Poland, Jesse; Belzile, François; del Pozo, Alejandro; Quincke, Martín; Castro, Marina; von Zitzewitz, Jarislav

2013-12-09

In crop breeding, the interest of predicting the performance of candidate cultivars in the field has increased due to recent advances in molecular breeding technologies. However, the complexity of the wheat genome presents some challenges for applying new technologies in molecular marker identification with next-generation sequencing. We applied genotyping-by-sequencing, a recently developed method to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms, in the genomes of 384 wheat (Triticum aestivum) genotypes that were field tested under three different water regimes in Mediterranean climatic conditions: rain-fed only, mild water stress, and fully irrigated. We identified 102,324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms in these genotypes, and the phenotypic data were used to train and test genomic selection models intended to predict yield, thousand-kernel weight, number of kernels per spike, and heading date. Phenotypic data showed marked spatial variation. Therefore, different models were tested to correct the trends observed in the field. A mixed-model using moving-means as a covariate was found to best fit the data. When we applied the genomic selection models, the accuracy of predicted traits increased with spatial adjustment. Multiple genomic selection models were tested, and a Gaussian kernel model was determined to give the highest accuracy. The best predictions between environments were obtained when data from different years were used to train the model. Our results confirm that genotyping-by-sequencing is an effective tool to obtain genome-wide information for crops with complex genomes, that these data are efficient for predicting traits, and that correction of spatial variation is a crucial ingredient to increase prediction accuracy in genomic selection models.

Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence: A new approach to spatially model wildfire risk potential in central Chile.

PubMed

González, Cristián; Castillo, Miguel; García-Chevesich, Pablo; Barrios, Juan

2018-02-01

A spatial modeling was applied to Chilean wildfire occurrence, through the Dempster-Shafer's evidence theory and considering the 2006-2010 period for the Valparaiso Region (central Chile), a representative area for this experiment. Results indicate strong spatial correlation between documented wildfires and cumulative evidence maps, resulting in a powerful tool for future wildfire risk prevention programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial surplus production modeling of Atlantic tunas and billfish.

PubMed

Carruthers, Thomas R; McAllister, Murdoch K; Taylor, Nathan G

2011-10-01

We formulate and simulation-test a spatial surplus production model that provides a basis with which to undertake multispecies, multi-area, stock assessment. Movement between areas is parameterized using a simple gravity model that includes a "residency" parameter that determines the degree of stock mixing among areas. The model is deliberately simple in order to (1) accommodate nontarget species that typically have fewer available data and (2) minimize computational demand to enable simulation evaluation of spatial management strategies. Using this model, we demonstrate that careful consideration of spatial catch and effort data can provide the basis for simple yet reliable spatial stock assessments. If simple spatial dynamics can be assumed, tagging data are not required to reliably estimate spatial distribution and movement. When applied to eight stocks of Atlantic tuna and billfish, the model tracks regional catch data relatively well by approximating local depletions and exchange among high-abundance areas. We use these results to investigate and discuss the implications of using spatially aggregated stock assessment for fisheries in which the distribution of both the population and fishing vary over time.

Modeling spatial variation in avian survival and residency probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saracco, James F.; Royle, J. Andrew; DeSante, David F.; Gardner, Beth

2010-01-01

The importance of understanding spatial variation in processes driving animal population dynamics is widely recognized. Yet little attention has been paid to spatial modeling of vital rates. Here we describe a hierarchical spatial autoregressive model to provide spatially explicit year-specific estimates of apparent survival (phi) and residency (pi) probabilities from capture-recapture data. We apply the model to data collected on a declining bird species, Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), as part of a broad-scale bird-banding network, the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. The Wood Thrush analysis showed variability in both phi and pi among years and across space. Spatial heterogeneity in residency probability was particularly striking, suggesting the importance of understanding the role of transients in local populations. We found broad-scale spatial patterning in Wood Thrush phi and pi that lend insight into population trends and can direct conservation and research. The spatial model developed here represents a significant advance over approaches to investigating spatial pattern in vital rates that aggregate data at coarse spatial scales and do not explicitly incorporate spatial information in the model. Further development and application of hierarchical capture-recapture models offers the opportunity to more fully investigate spatiotemporal variation in the processes that drive population changes.

The spatial Probit model-An application to the study of banking crises at the end of the 1990’s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaral, Andrea; Abreu, Margarida; Mendes, Victor

2014-12-01

We use a spatial Probit model to study the effect of contagion between banking systems of different countries. Applied to the late 1990s banking crisis in Asia we show that the phenomena of contagion is better seized using a spatial than a traditional Probit model. Unlike the latter, the spatial Probit model allows one to consider the cascade of cross and feedback effects of contagion that result from the outbreak of one initial crisis in one country or system. These contagion effects may result either from business connections between institutions of different countries or from institutional similarities between banking systems.

Multifractality of laser beam spatial intensity in a turbulent medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barille, Régis; Lapenna, Paolo

2006-05-01

We present the results of a laser beam passing through a turbulent medium. First we measure the geometric parameters and the spatial coherence of the beam as a function of wind velocities. A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis algorithm is applied to determine the multifractal scaling behavior of the intensity patterns. The measurements are fitted with models used in the analysis of river runoff records. We show the surprising result that the multifractality decreases when the spatial coherence of the laser is decreased. Universal scaling properties could be applied to the spatial characterization of a laser propagating in a turbulent medium or random medium.

Evaluation of spatial models to predict vulnerability of forest birds to brood parasitism by cowbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gustafson, E.J.; Knutson, M.G.; Niemi, G.J.; Friberg, M.

2002-01-01

We constructed alternative spatial models at two scales to predict Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) parasitism rates from land cover maps. The local-scale models tested competing hypotheses about the relationship between cowbird parasitism and distance of host nests from a forest edge (forest-nonforest boundary). The landscape models tested competing hypotheses about how landscape features (e.g., forests, agricultural fields) interact to determine rates of cowbird parasitism. The models incorporate spatial neighborhoods with a radius of 2.5 km in their formulation, reflecting the scale of the majority of cowbird commuting activity. Field data on parasitism by cowbirds (parasitism rate and number of cowbird eggs per nest) were collected at 28 sites in the Driftless Area Ecoregion of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa and were compared to the predictions of the alternative models. At the local scale, there was a significant positive relationship between cowbird parasitism and mean distance of nest sites from the forest edge. At the landscape scale, the best fitting models were the forest-dependent and forest-fragmentation-dependent models, in which more heavily forested and less fragmented landscapes had higher parasitism rates. However, much of the explanatory power of these models results from the inclusion of the local-scale relationship in these models. We found lower rates of cowbird parasitism than did most Midwestern studies, and we identified landscape patterns of cowbird parasitism that are opposite to those reported in several other studies of Midwestern songbirds. We caution that cowbird parasitism patterns can be unpredictable, depending upon ecoregional location and the spatial extent, and that our models should be tested in other ecoregions before they are applied there. Our study confirms that cowbird biology has a strong spatial component, and that improved spatial models applied at multiple spatial scales will be required to predict the effects of landscape and forest management on cowbird parasitism of forest birds.

Quantifying seascape structure: Extending terrestrial spatial pattern metrics to the marine realm

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wedding, L.M.; Christopher, L.A.; Pittman, S.J.; Friedlander, A.M.; Jorgensen, S.

2011-01-01

Spatial pattern metrics have routinely been applied to characterize and quantify structural features of terrestrial landscapes and have demonstrated great utility in landscape ecology and conservation planning. The important role of spatial structure in ecology and management is now commonly recognized, and recent advances in marine remote sensing technology have facilitated the application of spatial pattern metrics to the marine environment. However, it is not yet clear whether concepts, metrics, and statistical techniques developed for terrestrial ecosystems are relevant for marine species and seascapes. To address this gap in our knowledge, we reviewed, synthesized, and evaluated the utility and application of spatial pattern metrics in the marine science literature over the past 30 yr (1980 to 2010). In total, 23 studies characterized seascape structure, of which 17 quantified spatial patterns using a 2-dimensional patch-mosaic model and 5 used a continuously varying 3-dimensional surface model. Most seascape studies followed terrestrial-based studies in their search for ecological patterns and applied or modified existing metrics. Only 1 truly unique metric was found (hydrodynamic aperture applied to Pacific atolls). While there are still relatively few studies using spatial pattern metrics in the marine environment, they have suffered from similar misuse as reported for terrestrial studies, such as the lack of a priori considerations or the problem of collinearity between metrics. Spatial pattern metrics offer great potential for ecological research and environmental management in marine systems, and future studies should focus on (1) the dynamic boundary between the land and sea; (2) quantifying 3-dimensional spatial patterns; and (3) assessing and monitoring seascape change. ?? Inter-Research 2011.

Model of human visual-motion sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, A. B.; Ahumada, A. J., Jr.

1985-01-01

A model of how humans sense the velocity of moving images is proposed. The model exploits constraints provided by human psychophysics, notably that motion-sensing elements appear tuned for two-dimensional spatial frequency, and by the frequency spectrum of a moving image, namely, that its support lies in the plane in which the temporal frequency equals the dot product of the spatial frequency and the image velocity. The first stage of the model is a set of spatial-frequency-tuned, direction-selective linear sensors. The temporal frequency of the response of each sensor is shown to encode the component of the image velocity in the sensor direction. At the second stage, these components are resolved in order to measure the velocity of image motion at each of a number of spatial locations and spatial frequencies. The model has been applied to several illustrative examples, including apparent motion, coherent gratings, and natural image sequences. The model agrees qualitatively with human perception.

An enhanced two-step floating catchment area (E2SFCA) method for measuring spatial accessibility to primary care physicians.

PubMed

Luo, Wei; Qi, Yi

2009-12-01

This paper presents an enhancement of the two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method for measuring spatial accessibility, addressing the problem of uniform access within the catchment by applying weights to different travel time zones to account for distance decay. The enhancement is proved to be another special case of the gravity model. When applying this enhanced 2SFCA (E2SFCA) to measure the spatial access to primary care physicians in a study area in northern Illinois, we find that it reveals spatial accessibility pattern that is more consistent with intuition and delineates more spatially explicit health professional shortage areas. It is easy to implement in GIS and straightforward to interpret.

A dynamic spatio-temporal model for spatial data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Hanks, Ephraim M.; Russell, Robin; Walsh, Daniel P.

2017-01-01

Analyzing spatial data often requires modeling dependencies created by a dynamic spatio-temporal data generating process. In many applications, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is used with a random effect to account for spatial dependence and to provide optimal spatial predictions. Location-specific covariates are often included as fixed effects in a GLMM and may be collinear with the spatial random effect, which can negatively affect inference. We propose a dynamic approach to account for spatial dependence that incorporates scientific knowledge of the spatio-temporal data generating process. Our approach relies on a dynamic spatio-temporal model that explicitly incorporates location-specific covariates. We illustrate our approach with a spatially varying ecological diffusion model implemented using a computationally efficient homogenization technique. We apply our model to understand individual-level and location-specific risk factors associated with chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer from Wisconsin, USA and estimate the location the disease was first introduced. We compare our approach to several existing methods that are commonly used in spatial statistics. Our spatio-temporal approach resulted in a higher predictive accuracy when compared to methods based on optimal spatial prediction, obviated confounding among the spatially indexed covariates and the spatial random effect, and provided additional information that will be important for containing disease outbreaks.

System and Method for Providing Model-Based Alerting of Spatial Disorientation to a Pilot

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Steve (Inventor); Conner, Kevin J (Inventor); Mathan, Santosh (Inventor)

2015-01-01

A system and method monitor aircraft state parameters, for example, aircraft movement and flight parameters, applies those inputs to a spatial disorientation model, and makes a prediction of when pilot may become spatially disoriented. Once the system predicts a potentially disoriented pilot, the sensitivity for alerting the pilot to conditions exceeding a threshold can be increased and allow for an earlier alert to mitigate the possibility of an incorrect control input.

A scoping review of spatial cluster analysis techniques for point-event data.

PubMed

Fritz, Charles E; Schuurman, Nadine; Robertson, Colin; Lear, Scott

2013-05-01

Spatial cluster analysis is a uniquely interdisciplinary endeavour, and so it is important to communicate and disseminate ideas, innovations, best practices and challenges across practitioners, applied epidemiology researchers and spatial statisticians. In this research we conducted a scoping review to systematically search peer-reviewed journal databases for research that has employed spatial cluster analysis methods on individual-level, address location, or x and y coordinate derived data. To illustrate the thematic issues raised by our results, methods were tested using a dataset where known clusters existed. Point pattern methods, spatial clustering and cluster detection tests, and a locally weighted spatial regression model were most commonly used for individual-level, address location data (n = 29). The spatial scan statistic was the most popular method for address location data (n = 19). Six themes were identified relating to the application of spatial cluster analysis methods and subsequent analyses, which we recommend researchers to consider; exploratory analysis, visualization, spatial resolution, aetiology, scale and spatial weights. It is our intention that researchers seeking direction for using spatial cluster analysis methods, consider the caveats and strengths of each approach, but also explore the numerous other methods available for this type of analysis. Applied spatial epidemiology researchers and practitioners should give special consideration to applying multiple tests to a dataset. Future research should focus on developing frameworks for selecting appropriate methods and the corresponding spatial weighting schemes.

Downscaling Global Land Cover Projections from an Integrated Assessment Model for Use in Regional Analyses: Results and Evaluation for the US from 2005 to 2095

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

West, Tristram O.; Le Page, Yannick LB; Huang, Maoyi

2014-06-05

Projections of land cover change generated from Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and other economic-based models can be applied for analyses of environmental impacts at subregional and landscape scales. For those IAM and economic models that project land use at the sub-continental or regional scale, these projections must be downscaled and spatially distributed prior to use in climate or ecosystem models. Downscaling efforts to date have been conducted at the national extent with relatively high spatial resolution (30m) and at the global extent with relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.5 degree).

A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Joe Scott; Jeffrey D. Kaiden; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

2013-01-01

Spatially explicit burn probability modeling is increasingly applied to assess wildfire risk and inform mitigation strategy development. Burn probabilities are typically expressed on a per-pixel basis, calculated as the number of times a pixel burns divided by the number of simulation iterations. Spatial intersection of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) with...

Simple Process-Based Simulators for Generating Spatial Patterns of Habitat Loss and Fragmentation: A Review and Introduction to the G-RaFFe Model

PubMed Central

Pe'er, Guy; Zurita, Gustavo A.; Schober, Lucia; Bellocq, Maria I.; Strer, Maximilian; Müller, Michael; Pütz, Sandro

2013-01-01

Landscape simulators are widely applied in landscape ecology for generating landscape patterns. These models can be divided into two categories: pattern-based models that generate spatial patterns irrespective of the processes that shape them, and process-based models that attempt to generate patterns based on the processes that shape them. The latter often tend toward complexity in an attempt to obtain high predictive precision, but are rarely used for generic or theoretical purposes. Here we show that a simple process-based simulator can generate a variety of spatial patterns including realistic ones, typifying landscapes fragmented by anthropogenic activities. The model “G-RaFFe” generates roads and fields to reproduce the processes in which forests are converted into arable lands. For a selected level of habitat cover, three factors dominate its outcomes: the number of roads (accessibility), maximum field size (accounting for land ownership patterns), and maximum field disconnection (which enables field to be detached from roads). We compared the performance of G-RaFFe to three other models: Simmap (neutral model), Qrule (fractal-based) and Dinamica EGO (with 4 model versions differing in complexity). A PCA-based analysis indicated G-RaFFe and Dinamica version 4 (most complex) to perform best in matching realistic spatial patterns, but an alternative analysis which considers model variability identified G-RaFFe and Qrule as performing best. We also found model performance to be affected by habitat cover and the actual land-uses, the latter reflecting on land ownership patterns. We suggest that simple process-based generators such as G-RaFFe can be used to generate spatial patterns as templates for theoretical analyses, as well as for gaining better understanding of the relation between spatial processes and patterns. We suggest caution in applying neutral or fractal-based approaches, since spatial patterns that typify anthropogenic landscapes are often non-fractal in nature. PMID:23724108

Simple process-based simulators for generating spatial patterns of habitat loss and fragmentation: a review and introduction to the G-RaFFe model.

PubMed

Pe'er, Guy; Zurita, Gustavo A; Schober, Lucia; Bellocq, Maria I; Strer, Maximilian; Müller, Michael; Pütz, Sandro

2013-01-01

Landscape simulators are widely applied in landscape ecology for generating landscape patterns. These models can be divided into two categories: pattern-based models that generate spatial patterns irrespective of the processes that shape them, and process-based models that attempt to generate patterns based on the processes that shape them. The latter often tend toward complexity in an attempt to obtain high predictive precision, but are rarely used for generic or theoretical purposes. Here we show that a simple process-based simulator can generate a variety of spatial patterns including realistic ones, typifying landscapes fragmented by anthropogenic activities. The model "G-RaFFe" generates roads and fields to reproduce the processes in which forests are converted into arable lands. For a selected level of habitat cover, three factors dominate its outcomes: the number of roads (accessibility), maximum field size (accounting for land ownership patterns), and maximum field disconnection (which enables field to be detached from roads). We compared the performance of G-RaFFe to three other models: Simmap (neutral model), Qrule (fractal-based) and Dinamica EGO (with 4 model versions differing in complexity). A PCA-based analysis indicated G-RaFFe and Dinamica version 4 (most complex) to perform best in matching realistic spatial patterns, but an alternative analysis which considers model variability identified G-RaFFe and Qrule as performing best. We also found model performance to be affected by habitat cover and the actual land-uses, the latter reflecting on land ownership patterns. We suggest that simple process-based generators such as G-RaFFe can be used to generate spatial patterns as templates for theoretical analyses, as well as for gaining better understanding of the relation between spatial processes and patterns. We suggest caution in applying neutral or fractal-based approaches, since spatial patterns that typify anthropogenic landscapes are often non-fractal in nature.

A Spectral Method for Spatial Downscaling

PubMed Central

Reich, Brian J.; Chang, Howard H.; Foley, Kristen M.

2014-01-01

Summary Complex computer models play a crucial role in air quality research. These models are used to evaluate potential regulatory impacts of emission control strategies and to estimate air quality in areas without monitoring data. For both of these purposes, it is important to calibrate model output with monitoring data to adjust for model biases and improve spatial prediction. In this article, we propose a new spectral method to study and exploit complex relationships between model output and monitoring data. Spectral methods allow us to estimate the relationship between model output and monitoring data separately at different spatial scales, and to use model output for prediction only at the appropriate scales. The proposed method is computationally efficient and can be implemented using standard software. We apply the method to compare Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model output with ozone measurements in the United States in July 2005. We find that CMAQ captures large-scale spatial trends, but has low correlation with the monitoring data at small spatial scales. PMID:24965037

Applying narrowband remote-sensing reflectance models to wideband data.

PubMed

Lee, Zhongping

2009-06-10

Remote sensing of coastal and inland waters requires sensors to have a high spatial resolution to cover the spatial variation of biogeochemical properties in fine scales. High spatial-resolution sensors, however, are usually equipped with spectral bands that are wide in bandwidth (50 nm or wider). In this study, based on numerical simulations of hyperspectral remote-sensing reflectance of optically-deep waters, and using Landsat band specifics as an example, the impact of a wide spectral channel on remote sensing is analyzed. It is found that simple adoption of a narrowband model may result in >20% underestimation in calculated remote-sensing reflectance, and inversely may result in >20% overestimation in inverted absorption coefficients even under perfect conditions, although smaller (approximately 5%) uncertainties are found for higher absorbing waters. These results provide a cautious note, but also a justification for turbid coastal waters, on applying narrowband models to wideband data.

Multi-Scale Modeling in Morphogenesis: A Critical Analysis of the Cellular Potts Model

PubMed Central

Voss-Böhme, Anja

2012-01-01

Cellular Potts models (CPMs) are used as a modeling framework to elucidate mechanisms of biological development. They allow a spatial resolution below the cellular scale and are applied particularly when problems are studied where multiple spatial and temporal scales are involved. Despite the increasing usage of CPMs in theoretical biology, this model class has received little attention from mathematical theory. To narrow this gap, the CPMs are subjected to a theoretical study here. It is asked to which extent the updating rules establish an appropriate dynamical model of intercellular interactions and what the principal behavior at different time scales characterizes. It is shown that the longtime behavior of a CPM is degenerate in the sense that the cells consecutively die out, independent of the specific interdependence structure that characterizes the model. While CPMs are naturally defined on finite, spatially bounded lattices, possible extensions to spatially unbounded systems are explored to assess to which extent spatio-temporal limit procedures can be applied to describe the emergent behavior at the tissue scale. To elucidate the mechanistic structure of CPMs, the model class is integrated into a general multiscale framework. It is shown that the central role of the surface fluctuations, which subsume several cellular and intercellular factors, entails substantial limitations for a CPM's exploitation both as a mechanistic and as a phenomenological model. PMID:22984409

Accounting for spatial correlation errors in the assimilation of GRACE into hydrological models through localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khaki, M.; Schumacher, M.; Forootan, E.; Kuhn, M.; Awange, J. L.; van Dijk, A. I. J. M.

2017-10-01

Assimilation of terrestrial water storage (TWS) information from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission can provide significant improvements in hydrological modelling. However, the rather coarse spatial resolution of GRACE TWS and its spatially correlated errors pose considerable challenges for achieving realistic assimilation results. Consequently, successful data assimilation depends on rigorous modelling of the full error covariance matrix of the GRACE TWS estimates, as well as realistic error behavior for hydrological model simulations. In this study, we assess the application of local analysis (LA) to maximize the contribution of GRACE TWS in hydrological data assimilation. For this, we assimilate GRACE TWS into the World-Wide Water Resources Assessment system (W3RA) over the Australian continent while applying LA and accounting for existing spatial correlations using the full error covariance matrix. GRACE TWS data is applied with different spatial resolutions including 1° to 5° grids, as well as basin averages. The ensemble-based sequential filtering technique of the Square Root Analysis (SQRA) is applied to assimilate TWS data into W3RA. For each spatial scale, the performance of the data assimilation is assessed through comparison with independent in-situ ground water and soil moisture observations. Overall, the results demonstrate that LA is able to stabilize the inversion process (within the implementation of the SQRA filter) leading to less errors for all spatial scales considered with an average RMSE improvement of 54% (e.g., 52.23 mm down to 26.80 mm) for all the cases with respect to groundwater in-situ measurements. Validating the assimilated results with groundwater observations indicates that LA leads to 13% better (in terms of RMSE) assimilation results compared to the cases with Gaussian errors assumptions. This highlights the great potential of LA and the use of the full error covariance matrix of GRACE TWS estimates for improved data assimilation results.

Increased Genomic Prediction Accuracy in Wheat Breeding Through Spatial Adjustment of Field Trial Data

PubMed Central

Lado, Bettina; Matus, Ivan; Rodríguez, Alejandra; Inostroza, Luis; Poland, Jesse; Belzile, François; del Pozo, Alejandro; Quincke, Martín; Castro, Marina; von Zitzewitz, Jarislav

2013-01-01

In crop breeding, the interest of predicting the performance of candidate cultivars in the field has increased due to recent advances in molecular breeding technologies. However, the complexity of the wheat genome presents some challenges for applying new technologies in molecular marker identification with next-generation sequencing. We applied genotyping-by-sequencing, a recently developed method to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms, in the genomes of 384 wheat (Triticum aestivum) genotypes that were field tested under three different water regimes in Mediterranean climatic conditions: rain-fed only, mild water stress, and fully irrigated. We identified 102,324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms in these genotypes, and the phenotypic data were used to train and test genomic selection models intended to predict yield, thousand-kernel weight, number of kernels per spike, and heading date. Phenotypic data showed marked spatial variation. Therefore, different models were tested to correct the trends observed in the field. A mixed-model using moving-means as a covariate was found to best fit the data. When we applied the genomic selection models, the accuracy of predicted traits increased with spatial adjustment. Multiple genomic selection models were tested, and a Gaussian kernel model was determined to give the highest accuracy. The best predictions between environments were obtained when data from different years were used to train the model. Our results confirm that genotyping-by-sequencing is an effective tool to obtain genome-wide information for crops with complex genomes, that these data are efficient for predicting traits, and that correction of spatial variation is a crucial ingredient to increase prediction accuracy in genomic selection models. PMID:24082033

Space-time least-squares Petrov-Galerkin projection in nonlinear model reduction.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Choi, Youngsoo; Carlberg, Kevin Thomas

Our work proposes a space-time least-squares Petrov-Galerkin (ST-LSPG) projection method for model reduction of nonlinear dynamical systems. In contrast to typical nonlinear model-reduction methods that first apply Petrov-Galerkin projection in the spatial dimension and subsequently apply time integration to numerically resolve the resulting low-dimensional dynamical system, the proposed method applies projection in space and time simultaneously. To accomplish this, the method first introduces a low-dimensional space-time trial subspace, which can be obtained by computing tensor decompositions of state-snapshot data. The method then computes discrete-optimal approximations in this space-time trial subspace by minimizing the residual arising after time discretization over allmore » space and time in a weighted ℓ 2-norm. This norm can be de ned to enable complexity reduction (i.e., hyper-reduction) in time, which leads to space-time collocation and space-time GNAT variants of the ST-LSPG method. Advantages of the approach relative to typical spatial-projection-based nonlinear model reduction methods such as Galerkin projection and least-squares Petrov-Galerkin projection include: (1) a reduction of both the spatial and temporal dimensions of the dynamical system, (2) the removal of spurious temporal modes (e.g., unstable growth) from the state space, and (3) error bounds that exhibit slower growth in time. Numerical examples performed on model problems in fluid dynamics demonstrate the ability of the method to generate orders-of-magnitude computational savings relative to spatial-projection-based reduced-order models without sacrificing accuracy.« less

Spatial durbin error model for human development index in Province of Central Java.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Septiawan, A. R.; Handajani, S. S.; Martini, T. S.

2018-05-01

The Human Development Index (HDI) is an indicator used to measure success in building the quality of human life, explaining how people access development outcomes when earning income, health and education. Every year HDI in Central Java has improved to a better direction. In 2016, HDI in Central Java was 69.98 %, an increase of 0.49 % over the previous year. The objective of this study was to apply the spatial Durbin error model using angle weights queen contiguity to measure HDI in Central Java Province. Spatial Durbin error model is used because the model overcomes the spatial effect of errors and the effects of spatial depedency on the independent variable. Factors there use is life expectancy, mean years of schooling, expected years of schooling, and purchasing power parity. Based on the result of research, we get spatial Durbin error model for HDI in Central Java with influencing factors are life expectancy, mean years of schooling, expected years of schooling, and purchasing power parity.

A Local to National Scale Catchment Model Simulation Framework for Hydrological Predictions and Impact Assessments Under Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freer, Jim; Coxon, Gemma; Quinn, Niall; Dunne, Toby; Lane, Rosie; Bates, Paul; Wagener, Thorsten; Woods, Ross; Neal, Jeff; Howden, Nicholas; Musuuza, Jude

2017-04-01

There is a huge challenge in developing hydrological model structures that can be used for hypothesis testing, prediction, impact assessment and risk analyses over a wide range of spatial scales. There are many reasons why this is the case, from computational demands, to how we define and characterize different features and pathway connectivities in the landscape, that differ depending on the objectives of the study. However there is certainly a need more than ever to explore the trade-offs between the complexity of modelling applied (i.e. spatial discretization, levels of process representation, complexity of landscape representation) compared to the benefits realized in terms of predictive capability and robustness of these predictions during hydrological extremes and during change. Furthermore, there is a further balance, particularly associated with prediction uncertainties, in that it is not desirable to have modelling systems that are too complex compared to the observed data that would ever be available to apply them. This is particularly the case when models are applied to quantify national impact assessments, especially if these are based on validation assessments from smaller more detailed case studies. Therefore the hydrological community needs modelling tools and approaches that enable these trade-offs to be explored and to understand the level of representation needed in models to be 'fit-for-purpose' for a given application. This paper presents a catchment scale national modelling framework based on Dynamic-TOPMODEL specifically setup to fulfil these aims. A key component of the modelling framework is it's structural flexibility, as is the ability to assess model outputs using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The model build has been automated to work at any spatial scale to the national scale, and within that to control the level of spatial discretisation and connectivity of locally accounted landscape elements in the form of hydrological response units (HRU's). This allows for the explicit consideration of spatial rainfall fields, landscape, soils and geological attributes and the spatial connectivity of hydrological flow pathways to explore what level of modelling complexity we need for different prediction problems. We shall present this framework and show how it can be used in flood and drought risk analyses as well as include attributes and features within the landscape to explore societal and climate impacts effectively within an uncertainty analyses framework.

Support vector machine in crash prediction at the level of traffic analysis zones: Assessing the spatial proximity effects.

PubMed

Dong, Ni; Huang, Helai; Zheng, Liang

2015-09-01

In zone-level crash prediction, accounting for spatial dependence has become an extensively studied topic. This study proposes Support Vector Machine (SVM) model to address complex, large and multi-dimensional spatial data in crash prediction. Correlation-based Feature Selector (CFS) was applied to evaluate candidate factors possibly related to zonal crash frequency in handling high-dimension spatial data. To demonstrate the proposed approaches and to compare them with the Bayesian spatial model with conditional autoregressive prior (i.e., CAR), a dataset in Hillsborough county of Florida was employed. The results showed that SVM models accounting for spatial proximity outperform the non-spatial model in terms of model fitting and predictive performance, which indicates the reasonableness of considering cross-zonal spatial correlations. The best model predictive capability, relatively, is associated with the model considering proximity of the centroid distance by choosing the RBF kernel and setting the 10% of the whole dataset as the testing data, which further exhibits SVM models' capacity for addressing comparatively complex spatial data in regional crash prediction modeling. Moreover, SVM models exhibit the better goodness-of-fit compared with CAR models when utilizing the whole dataset as the samples. A sensitivity analysis of the centroid-distance-based spatial SVM models was conducted to capture the impacts of explanatory variables on the mean predicted probabilities for crash occurrence. While the results conform to the coefficient estimation in the CAR models, which supports the employment of the SVM model as an alternative in regional safety modeling. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Landcover Classification Using Deep Fully Convolutional Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Li, X.; Zhou, S.; Tang, J.

2017-12-01

Land cover classification has always been an essential application in remote sensing. Certain image features are needed for land cover classification whether it is based on pixel or object-based methods. Different from other machine learning methods, deep learning model not only extracts useful information from multiple bands/attributes, but also learns spatial characteristics. In recent years, deep learning methods have been developed rapidly and widely applied in image recognition, semantic understanding, and other application domains. However, there are limited studies applying deep learning methods in land cover classification. In this research, we used fully convolutional networks (FCN) as the deep learning model to classify land covers. The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) within the state of Kansas was used as training dataset and Landsat images were classified using the trained FCN model. We also applied an image segmentation method to improve the original results from the FCN model. In addition, the pros and cons between deep learning and several machine learning methods were compared and explored. Our research indicates: (1) FCN is an effective classification model with an overall accuracy of 75%; (2) image segmentation improves the classification results with better match of spatial patterns; (3) FCN has an excellent ability of learning which can attains higher accuracy and better spatial patterns compared with several machine learning methods.

Spatial extremes modeling applied to extreme precipitation data in the state of Paraná

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olinda, R. A.; Blanchet, J.; dos Santos, C. A. C.; Ozaki, V. A.; Ribeiro, P. J., Jr.

2014-11-01

Most of the mathematical models developed for rare events are based on probabilistic models for extremes. Although the tools for statistical modeling of univariate and multivariate extremes are well developed, the extension of these tools to model spatial extremes includes an area of very active research nowadays. A natural approach to such a modeling is the theory of extreme spatial and the max-stable process, characterized by the extension of infinite dimensions of multivariate extreme value theory, and making it possible then to incorporate the existing correlation functions in geostatistics and therefore verify the extremal dependence by means of the extreme coefficient and the Madogram. This work describes the application of such processes in modeling the spatial maximum dependence of maximum monthly rainfall from the state of Paraná, based on historical series observed in weather stations. The proposed models consider the Euclidean space and a transformation referred to as space weather, which may explain the presence of directional effects resulting from synoptic weather patterns. This method is based on the theorem proposed for de Haan and on the models of Smith and Schlather. The isotropic and anisotropic behavior of these models is also verified via Monte Carlo simulation. Estimates are made through pairwise likelihood maximum and the models are compared using the Takeuchi Information Criterion. By modeling the dependence of spatial maxima, applied to maximum monthly rainfall data from the state of Paraná, it was possible to identify directional effects resulting from meteorological phenomena, which, in turn, are important for proper management of risks and environmental disasters in countries with its economy heavily dependent on agribusiness.

Risk mapping of Rinderpest sero-prevalence in Central and Southern Somalia based on spatial and network risk factors.

PubMed

Ortiz-Pelaez, Angel; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Tempia, Stefano; Otieno, F Tom; Aden, Hussein H; Costagli, Riccardo

2010-04-28

In contrast to most pastoral systems, the Somali livestock production system is oriented towards domestic trade and export with seasonal movement patterns of herds/flocks in search of water and pasture and towards export points. Data from a rinderpest survey and other data sources have been integrated to explore the topology of a contact network of cattle herds based on a spatial proximity criterion and other attributes related to cattle herd dynamics. The objective of the study is to integrate spatial mobility and other attributes with GIS and network approaches in order to develop a predictive spatial model of presence of rinderpest. A spatial logistic regression model was fitted using data for 562 point locations. It includes three statistically significant continuous-scale variables that increase the risk of rinderpest: home range radius, herd density and clustering coefficient of the node of the network whose link was established if the sum of the home ranges of every pair of nodes was equal or greater than the shortest distance between the points. The sensitivity of the model is 85.1% and the specificity 84.6%, correctly classifying 84.7% of the observations. The spatial autocorrelation not accounted for by the model is negligible and visual assessment of a semivariogram of the residuals indicated that there was no undue amount of spatial autocorrelation. The predictive model was applied to a set of 6176 point locations covering the study area. Areas at high risk of having serological evidence of rinderpest are located mainly in the coastal districts of Lower and Middle Juba, the coastal area of Lower Shabele and in the regions of Middle Shabele and Bay. There are also isolated spots of high risk along the border with Kenya and the southern area of the border with Ethiopia. The identification of point locations and areas with high risk of presence of rinderpest and their spatial visualization as a risk map will be useful for informing the prioritization of disease surveillance and control activities for rinderpest in Somalia. The methodology applied here, involving spatial and network parameters, could also be applied to other diseases and/or species as part of a standardized approach for the design of risk-based surveillance activities in nomadic pastoral settings.

Quantifying the importance of spatial resolution and other factors through global sensitivity analysis of a flood inundation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas Steven Savage, James; Pianosi, Francesca; Bates, Paul; Freer, Jim; Wagener, Thorsten

2016-11-01

Where high-resolution topographic data are available, modelers are faced with the decision of whether it is better to spend computational resource on resolving topography at finer resolutions or on running more simulations to account for various uncertain input factors (e.g., model parameters). In this paper we apply global sensitivity analysis to explore how influential the choice of spatial resolution is when compared to uncertainties in the Manning's friction coefficient parameters, the inflow hydrograph, and those stemming from the coarsening of topographic data used to produce Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). We apply the hydraulic model LISFLOOD-FP to produce several temporally and spatially variable model outputs that represent different aspects of flood inundation processes, including flood extent, water depth, and time of inundation. We find that the most influential input factor for flood extent predictions changes during the flood event, starting with the inflow hydrograph during the rising limb before switching to the channel friction parameter during peak flood inundation, and finally to the floodplain friction parameter during the drying phase of the flood event. Spatial resolution and uncertainty introduced by resampling topographic data to coarser resolutions are much more important for water depth predictions, which are also sensitive to different input factors spatially and temporally. Our findings indicate that the sensitivity of LISFLOOD-FP predictions is more complex than previously thought. Consequently, the input factors that modelers should prioritize will differ depending on the model output assessed, and the location and time of when and where this output is most relevant.

Median Filter Noise Reduction of Image and Backpropagation Neural Network Model for Cervical Cancer Classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wutsqa, D. U.; Marwah, M.

2017-06-01

In this paper, we consider spatial operation median filter to reduce the noise in the cervical images yielded by colposcopy tool. The backpropagation neural network (BPNN) model is applied to the colposcopy images to classify cervical cancer. The classification process requires an image extraction by using a gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) method to obtain image features that are used as inputs of BPNN model. The advantage of noise reduction is evaluated by comparing the performances of BPNN models with and without spatial operation median filter. The experimental result shows that the spatial operation median filter can improve the accuracy of the BPNN model for cervical cancer classification.

Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

PubMed Central

Brock, William A.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Livina, Valerie N.; Seekell, David A.; Scheffer, Marten; van Nes, Egbert H.; Dakos, Vasilis

2014-01-01

A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data. PMID:24658137

Numerical Approach to Spatial Deterministic-Stochastic Models Arising in Cell Biology.

PubMed

Schaff, James C; Gao, Fei; Li, Ye; Novak, Igor L; Slepchenko, Boris M

2016-12-01

Hybrid deterministic-stochastic methods provide an efficient alternative to a fully stochastic treatment of models which include components with disparate levels of stochasticity. However, general-purpose hybrid solvers for spatially resolved simulations of reaction-diffusion systems are not widely available. Here we describe fundamentals of a general-purpose spatial hybrid method. The method generates realizations of a spatially inhomogeneous hybrid system by appropriately integrating capabilities of a deterministic partial differential equation solver with a popular particle-based stochastic simulator, Smoldyn. Rigorous validation of the algorithm is detailed, using a simple model of calcium 'sparks' as a testbed. The solver is then applied to a deterministic-stochastic model of spontaneous emergence of cell polarity. The approach is general enough to be implemented within biologist-friendly software frameworks such as Virtual Cell.

Estimation and impact assessment of input and parameter uncertainty in predicting groundwater flow with a fully distributed model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Touhidul Mustafa, Syed Md.; Nossent, Jiri; Ghysels, Gert; Huysmans, Marijke

2017-04-01

Transient numerical groundwater flow models have been used to understand and forecast groundwater flow systems under anthropogenic and climatic effects, but the reliability of the predictions is strongly influenced by different sources of uncertainty. Hence, researchers in hydrological sciences are developing and applying methods for uncertainty quantification. Nevertheless, spatially distributed flow models pose significant challenges for parameter and spatially distributed input estimation and uncertainty quantification. In this study, we present a general and flexible approach for input and parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis of groundwater models. The proposed approach combines a fully distributed groundwater flow model (MODFLOW) with the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. To avoid over-parameterization, the uncertainty of the spatially distributed model input has been represented by multipliers. The posterior distributions of these multipliers and the regular model parameters were estimated using DREAM. The proposed methodology has been applied in an overexploited aquifer in Bangladesh where groundwater pumping and recharge data are highly uncertain. The results confirm that input uncertainty does have a considerable effect on the model predictions and parameter distributions. Additionally, our approach also provides a new way to optimize the spatially distributed recharge and pumping data along with the parameter values under uncertain input conditions. It can be concluded from our approach that considering model input uncertainty along with parameter uncertainty is important for obtaining realistic model predictions and a correct estimation of the uncertainty bounds.

Measuring directional urban spatial interaction in China: A migration perspective

PubMed Central

Li, Fangzhou; Feng, Zhiming; Li, Peng; You, Zhen

2017-01-01

The study of urban spatial interaction is closely linked to that of economic geography, urban planning, regional development, and so on. Currently, this topic is generating a great deal of interest among researchers who are striving to find accurate ways to measure urban spatial interaction. Classical spatial interaction models lack theoretical guidance and require complicated parameter-adjusting processes. The radiation model, however, as proposed by Simini et al. with rigorous formula derivation, can simulate directional urban spatial interaction. We applied the radiation model in China to simulate the directional migration number among 337 nationwide research units, comprising 4 municipalities and 333 prefecture-level cities. We then analyzed the overall situation in Chinese cities, the interaction intensity hierarchy, and the prime urban agglomerations from the perspective of migration. This was done to ascertain China’s urban spatial interaction and regional development from 2000 to 2010 to reveal ground realities. PMID:28141853

Measuring directional urban spatial interaction in China: A migration perspective.

PubMed

Li, Fangzhou; Feng, Zhiming; Li, Peng; You, Zhen

2017-01-01

The study of urban spatial interaction is closely linked to that of economic geography, urban planning, regional development, and so on. Currently, this topic is generating a great deal of interest among researchers who are striving to find accurate ways to measure urban spatial interaction. Classical spatial interaction models lack theoretical guidance and require complicated parameter-adjusting processes. The radiation model, however, as proposed by Simini et al. with rigorous formula derivation, can simulate directional urban spatial interaction. We applied the radiation model in China to simulate the directional migration number among 337 nationwide research units, comprising 4 municipalities and 333 prefecture-level cities. We then analyzed the overall situation in Chinese cities, the interaction intensity hierarchy, and the prime urban agglomerations from the perspective of migration. This was done to ascertain China's urban spatial interaction and regional development from 2000 to 2010 to reveal ground realities.

Empirical modeling of spatial and temporal variation in warm season nocturnal air temperatures in two North Idaho mountain ranges, USA

Treesearch

Zachery A. Holden; Michael A. Crimmins; Samuel A. Cushman; Jeremy S. Littell

2010-01-01

Accurate, fine spatial resolution predictions of surface air temperatures are critical for understanding many hydrologic and ecological processes. This study examines the spatial and temporal variability in nocturnal air temperatures across a mountainous region of Northern Idaho. Principal components analysis (PCA) was applied to a network of 70 Hobo temperature...

Applying fire spread simulators in New Zealand and Australia: Results from an international seminar

Treesearch

Tonja Opperman; Jim Gould; Mark Finney; Cordy Tymstra

2006-01-01

There is currently no spatial wildfire spread and growth simulation model used commonly across New Zealand or Australia. Fire management decision-making would be enhanced through the use of spatial fire simulators. Various groups from around the world met in January 2006 to evaluate the applicability of different spatial fire spread applications for common use in both...

Demand-supply dynamics in tourism systems: A spatio-temporal GIS analysis. The Alberta ski industry case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertazzon, Stefania

The present research focuses on the interaction of supply and demand of down-hill ski tourism in the province of Alberta. The main hypothesis is that the demand for skiing depends on the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the population living in the province and outside it. A second, consequent hypothesis is that the development of ski resorts (supply) is a response to the demand for skiing. From the latter derives the hypothesis of a dynamic interaction between supply (ski resorts) and demand (skiers). Such interaction occurs in space, within a range determined by physical distance and the means available to overcome it. The above hypotheses implicitly define interactions that take place in space and evolve over time. The hypotheses are tested by temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal regression models, using the best available data and the latest commercially available software. The main purpose of this research is to explore analytical techniques to model spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal dynamics in the context of regional science. The completion of the present research has produced more significant contributions than was originally expected. Many of the unexpected contributions resulted from theoretical and applied needs arising from the application of spatial regression models. Spatial regression models are a new and largely under-applied technique. The models are fairly complex and a considerable amount of preparatory work is needed, prior to their specification and estimation. Most of this work is specific to the field of application. The originality of the solutions devised is increased by the lack of applications in the field of tourism. The scarcity of applications in other fields adds to their value for other applications. The estimation of spatio-temporal models has been only partially attained in the present research. This apparent limitation is due to the novelty and complexity of the analytical methods applied. This opens new directions for further work in the field of spatial analysis, in conjunction with the development of specific software.

Preferential sampling and Bayesian geostatistics: Statistical modeling and examples.

PubMed

Cecconi, Lorenzo; Grisotto, Laura; Catelan, Dolores; Lagazio, Corrado; Berrocal, Veronica; Biggeri, Annibale

2016-08-01

Preferential sampling refers to any situation in which the spatial process and the sampling locations are not stochastically independent. In this paper, we present two examples of geostatistical analysis in which the usual assumption of stochastic independence between the point process and the measurement process is violated. To account for preferential sampling, we specify a flexible and general Bayesian geostatistical model that includes a shared spatial random component. We apply the proposed model to two different case studies that allow us to highlight three different modeling and inferential aspects of geostatistical modeling under preferential sampling: (1) continuous or finite spatial sampling frame; (2) underlying causal model and relevant covariates; and (3) inferential goals related to mean prediction surface or prediction uncertainty. © The Author(s) 2016.

Generating High-Temporal and Spatial Resolution TIR Image Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrero-Huerta, M.; Lagüela, S.; Alfieri, S. M.; Menenti, M.

2017-09-01

Remote sensing imagery to monitor global biophysical dynamics requires the availability of thermal infrared data at high temporal and spatial resolution because of the rapid development of crops during the growing season and the fragmentation of most agricultural landscapes. Conversely, no single sensor meets these combined requirements. Data fusion approaches offer an alternative to exploit observations from multiple sensors, providing data sets with better properties. A novel spatio-temporal data fusion model based on constrained algorithms denoted as multisensor multiresolution technique (MMT) was developed and applied to generate TIR synthetic image data at both temporal and spatial high resolution. Firstly, an adaptive radiance model is applied based on spectral unmixing analysis of . TIR radiance data at TOA (top of atmosphere) collected by MODIS daily 1-km and Landsat - TIRS 16-day sampled at 30-m resolution are used to generate synthetic daily radiance images at TOA at 30-m spatial resolution. The next step consists of unmixing the 30 m (now lower resolution) images using the information about their pixel land-cover composition from co-registered images at higher spatial resolution. In our case study, TIR synthesized data were unmixed to the Sentinel 2 MSI with 10 m resolution. The constrained unmixing preserves all the available radiometric information of the 30 m images and involves the optimization of the number of land-cover classes and the size of the moving window for spatial unmixing. Results are still being evaluated, with particular attention for the quality of the data streams required to apply our approach.

Catchment hydro-biogeochemical response to forest harvest intensity and spatial pattern

EPA Science Inventory

We apply a new model, Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessment (VELMA), to Watershed 10 (WS10) in the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest to simulate the effects of harvest intensity and spatial pattern on catchment hydrological and biogeochemical processes. Specificall...

Spatial network surrogates for disentangling complex system structure from spatial embedding of nodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiedermann, Marc; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kurths, Jürgen; Donner, Reik V.

2016-04-01

Networks with nodes embedded in a metric space have gained increasing interest in recent years. The effects of spatial embedding on the networks' structural characteristics, however, are rarely taken into account when studying their macroscopic properties. Here, we propose a hierarchy of null models to generate random surrogates from a given spatially embedded network that can preserve certain global and local statistics associated with the nodes' embedding in a metric space. Comparing the original network's and the resulting surrogates' global characteristics allows one to quantify to what extent these characteristics are already predetermined by the spatial embedding of the nodes and links. We apply our framework to various real-world spatial networks and show that the proposed models capture macroscopic properties of the networks under study much better than standard random network models that do not account for the nodes' spatial embedding. Depending on the actual performance of the proposed null models, the networks are categorized into different classes. Since many real-world complex networks are in fact spatial networks, the proposed approach is relevant for disentangling the underlying complex system structure from spatial embedding of nodes in many fields, ranging from social systems over infrastructure and neurophysiology to climatology.

A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models.

PubMed

Whittington, Jesse; Sawaya, Michael A

2015-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal's home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786-1.071) for females, 0.844 (0.703-0.975) for males, and 0.882 (0.779-0.981) for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758-1.024) for females, 0.825 (0.700-0.948) for males, and 0.863 (0.771-0.957) for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative population growth rates suggest that Banff National Park's population of grizzly bears requires continued conservation-oriented management actions.

Spatial scan statistics for detection of multiple clusters with arbitrary shapes.

PubMed

Lin, Pei-Sheng; Kung, Yi-Hung; Clayton, Murray

2016-12-01

In applying scan statistics for public health research, it would be valuable to develop a detection method for multiple clusters that accommodates spatial correlation and covariate effects in an integrated model. In this article, we connect the concepts of the likelihood ratio (LR) scan statistic and the quasi-likelihood (QL) scan statistic to provide a series of detection procedures sufficiently flexible to apply to clusters of arbitrary shape. First, we use an independent scan model for detection of clusters and then a variogram tool to examine the existence of spatial correlation and regional variation based on residuals of the independent scan model. When the estimate of regional variation is significantly different from zero, a mixed QL estimating equation is developed to estimate coefficients of geographic clusters and covariates. We use the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure (1995) to find a threshold for p-values to address the multiple testing problem. A quasi-deviance criterion is used to regroup the estimated clusters to find geographic clusters with arbitrary shapes. We conduct simulations to compare the performance of the proposed method with other scan statistics. For illustration, the method is applied to enterovirus data from Taiwan. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Continental-scale, data-driven predictive assessment of eliminating the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis, in sub-Saharan Africa by 2020.

PubMed

Michael, Edwin; Singh, Brajendra K; Mayala, Benjamin K; Smith, Morgan E; Hampton, Scott; Nabrzyski, Jaroslaw

2017-09-27

There are growing demands for predicting the prospects of achieving the global elimination of neglected tropical diseases as a result of the institution of large-scale nation-wide intervention programs by the WHO-set target year of 2020. Such predictions will be uncertain due to the impacts that spatial heterogeneity and scaling effects will have on parasite transmission processes, which will introduce significant aggregation errors into any attempt aiming to predict the outcomes of interventions at the broader spatial levels relevant to policy making. We describe a modeling platform that addresses this problem of upscaling from local settings to facilitate predictions at regional levels by the discovery and use of locality-specific transmission models, and we illustrate the utility of using this approach to evaluate the prospects for eliminating the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), in sub-Saharan Africa by the WHO target year of 2020 using currently applied or newly proposed intervention strategies. METHODS AND RESULTS: We show how a computational platform that couples site-specific data discovery with model fitting and calibration can allow both learning of local LF transmission models and simulations of the impact of interventions that take a fuller account of the fine-scale heterogeneous transmission of this parasitic disease within endemic countries. We highlight how such a spatially hierarchical modeling tool that incorporates actual data regarding the roll-out of national drug treatment programs and spatial variability in infection patterns into the modeling process can produce more realistic predictions of timelines to LF elimination at coarse spatial scales, ranging from district to country to continental levels. Our results show that when locally applicable extinction thresholds are used, only three countries are likely to meet the goal of LF elimination by 2020 using currently applied mass drug treatments, and that switching to more intensive drug regimens, increasing the frequency of treatments, or switching to new triple drug regimens will be required if LF elimination is to be accelerated in Africa. The proportion of countries that would meet the goal of eliminating LF by 2020 may, however, reach up to 24/36 if the WHO 1% microfilaremia prevalence threshold is used and sequential mass drug deliveries are applied in countries. We have developed and applied a data-driven spatially hierarchical computational platform that uses the discovery of locally applicable transmission models in order to predict the prospects for eliminating the macroparasitic disease, LF, at the coarser country level in sub-Saharan Africa. We show that fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in local parasite transmission and extinction dynamics, as well as the exact nature of intervention roll-outs in countries, will impact the timelines to achieving national LF elimination on this continent.

Determining spatially discretized surface flow and baseflow in the context of climate change and water quality management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raimonet, M.; Oudin, L.; Rabouille, C.; Garnier, J.; Silvestre, M.; Vautard, R.; Thieu, V.

2016-12-01

Water quality management of fresh and marine aquatic systems requires modelling tools along the land-ocean continuum in order to evaluate the effect of climate change on nutrient transfer and on potential ecosystem dysfonctioning (e.g. eutrophication, anoxia). In addition to direct effects of climate change on water temperature, it is essential to consider indirect effects of precipitation and temperature changes on hydrology since nutrient transfers are particularly sensitive to the partition of streamflow between surface flow and baseflow. Yet, the determination of surface flow and baseflow, their spatial repartition on drainage basins, and their relative potential evolution under climate change remains challenging. In this study, we developed a generic approach to determine 10-day surface flow and baseflow using a regionalized hydrological model applied at a high spatial resolution (unitary catchments of area circa 10km²). Streamflow data at gauged basins were used to calibrate hydrological model parameters that were then applied on neighbor ungauged basins to estimate streamflow at the scale of the French territory. The proposed methodology allowed representing spatialized surface flow and baseflow that are consistent with climatic and geomorphological settings. The methodology was then used to determine the effect of climate change on the spatial repartition of surface flow and baseflow on the Seine drainage bassin. Results showed large discrepancies of both the amount and the spatial repartition of changes of surface flow and baseflow according to the several GCM and RCM used to derive projected climatic forcing. Consequently, it is expected that the impact of climate change on nutrient transfer might also be quite heterogeneous for the Seine River. This methodology could be applied in any drainage basin where at least several gauged hydrometric stations are available. The estimated surface flow and baseflow can then be used in hydro-ecological models in order to evaluate direct and indirect impacts of climate change on nutrient transfers and potential ecosystem dysfunctioning along the land-ocean continuum.

Modeling spatial accessibility of immigrants to culturally diverse family physicians.

PubMed

Wanga, Lu; Roisman, Deborah

2011-01-01

This article uses accessibility as an analytical tool to examine health care access among immigrants in a multicultural urban setting. It applies and improves on two widely used accessibility models—the gravity model and the two-step floating catchment area model—in measuring spatial accessibility by Mainland Chinese immigrants in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area. Empirical data on physician-seeking behaviors are collected through two rounds of questionnaire surveys. Attention is focused on journey to physician location and utilization of linguistically matched family physicians. Based on the survey data, a two-zone accessibility model is developed by relaxing the travel threshold and distance impedance parameters that are traditionally treated as a constant in the accessibility models. General linear models are used to identify relationships among spatial accessibility, geography, and socioeconomic characteristics of Mainland Chinese immigrants. The results suggest a spatial mismatch in the supply of and demand for culturally sensitive care, and residential location is the primary factor that determines spatial accessibility to family physicians. The article yields important policy implications.

Shift-variant linear system modeling for multispectral scanners

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amini, Abolfazl M.; Ioup, George E.; Ioup, Juliette W.

1995-07-01

Multispectral scanner data are affected both by the spatial impulse response of the sensor and the spectral response of each channel. To achieve a realistic representation for the output data for a given scene spectral input, both of these effects must be incorporated into a forward model. Each channel can have a different spatial response and each has its characteristic spectral response. A forward model is built which includes the shift invariant spatial broadening of the input for the channels and the shift variant spectral response across channels. The model is applied to the calibrated airborne multispectral scanner as well as the airborne terrestrial applications sensor developed at NASA Stennis Space Center.

Using the Gravity Model to Estimate the Spatial Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases

PubMed Central

Barrios, José Miguel; Verstraeten, Willem W.; Maes, Piet; Aerts, Jean-Marie; Farifteh, Jamshid; Coppin, Pol

2012-01-01

The gravity models are commonly used spatial interaction models. They have been widely applied in a large set of domains dealing with interactions amongst spatial entities. The spread of vector-borne diseases is also related to the intensity of interaction between spatial entities, namely, the physical habitat of pathogens’ vectors and/or hosts, and urban areas, thus humans. This study implements the concept behind gravity models in the spatial spread of two vector-borne diseases, nephropathia epidemica and Lyme borreliosis, based on current knowledge on the transmission mechanism of these diseases. Two sources of information on vegetated systems were tested: the CORINE land cover map and MODIS NDVI. The size of vegetated areas near urban centers and a local indicator of occupation-related exposure were found significant predictors of disease risk. Both the land cover map and the space-borne dataset were suited yet not equivalent input sources to locate and measure vegetated areas of importance for disease spread. The overall results point at the compatibility of the gravity model concept and the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases. PMID:23202882

Using the gravity model to estimate the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases.

PubMed

Barrios, José Miguel; Verstraeten, Willem W; Maes, Piet; Aerts, Jean-Marie; Farifteh, Jamshid; Coppin, Pol

2012-11-30

The gravity models are commonly used spatial interaction models. They have been widely applied in a large set of domains dealing with interactions amongst spatial entities. The spread of vector-borne diseases is also related to the intensity of interaction between spatial entities, namely, the physical habitat of pathogens’ vectors and/or hosts, and urban areas, thus humans. This study implements the concept behind gravity models in the spatial spread of two vector-borne diseases, nephropathia epidemica and Lyme borreliosis, based on current knowledge on the transmission mechanism of these diseases. Two sources of information on vegetated systems were tested: the CORINE land cover map and MODIS NDVI. The size of vegetated areas near urban centers and a local indicator of occupation-related exposure were found significant predictors of disease risk. Both the land cover map and the space-borne dataset were suited yet not equivalent input sources to locate and measure vegetated areas of importance for disease spread. The overall results point at the compatibility of the gravity model concept and the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases.

Fine-Scale Mapping by Spatial Risk Distribution Modeling for Regional Malaria Endemicity and Its Implications under the Low-to-Moderate Transmission Setting in Western Cambodia

PubMed Central

Okami, Suguru; Kohtake, Naohiko

2016-01-01

The disease burden of malaria has decreased as malaria elimination efforts progress. The mapping approach that uses spatial risk distribution modeling needs some adjustment and reinvestigation in accordance with situational changes. Here we applied a mathematical modeling approach for standardized morbidity ratio (SMR) calculated by annual parasite incidence using routinely aggregated surveillance reports, environmental data such as remote sensing data, and non-environmental anthropogenic data to create fine-scale spatial risk distribution maps of western Cambodia. Furthermore, we incorporated a combination of containment status indicators into the model to demonstrate spatial heterogeneities of the relationship between containment status and risks. The explanatory model was fitted to estimate the SMR of each area (adjusted Pearson correlation coefficient R2 = 0.774; Akaike information criterion AIC = 149.423). A Bayesian modeling framework was applied to estimate the uncertainty of the model and cross-scale predictions. Fine-scale maps were created by the spatial interpolation of estimated SMRs at each village. Compared with geocoded case data, corresponding predicted values showed conformity [Spearman’s rank correlation r = 0.662 in the inverse distance weighed interpolation and 0.645 in ordinal kriging (95% confidence intervals of 0.414–0.827 and 0.368–0.813, respectively), Welch’s t-test; Not significant]. The proposed approach successfully explained regional malaria risks and fine-scale risk maps were created under low-to-moderate malaria transmission settings where reinvestigations of existing risk modeling approaches were needed. Moreover, different representations of simulated outcomes of containment status indicators for respective areas provided useful insights for tailored interventional planning, considering regional malaria endemicity. PMID:27415623

Langevin Dynamics with Spatial Correlations as a Model for Electron-Phonon Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamm, A.; Caro, M.; Caro, A.; Samolyuk, G.; Klintenberg, M.; Correa, A. A.

2018-05-01

Stochastic Langevin dynamics has been traditionally used as a tool to describe nonequilibrium processes. When utilized in systems with collective modes, traditional Langevin dynamics relaxes all modes indiscriminately, regardless of their wavelength. We propose a generalization of Langevin dynamics that can capture a differential coupling between collective modes and the bath, by introducing spatial correlations in the random forces. This allows modeling the electronic subsystem in a metal as a generalized Langevin bath endowed with a concept of locality, greatly improving the capabilities of the two-temperature model. The specific form proposed here for the spatial correlations produces a physical wave-vector and polarization dependency of the relaxation produced by the electron-phonon coupling in a solid. We show that the resulting model can be used for describing the path to equilibration of ions and electrons and also as a thermostat to sample the equilibrium canonical ensemble. By extension, the family of models presented here can be applied in general to any dense system, solids, alloys, and dense plasmas. As an example, we apply the model to study the nonequilibrium dynamics of an electron-ion two-temperature Ni crystal.

Multivariate analysis applied to the study of spatial distributions found in drug-eluting stent coatings by confocal Raman microscopy.

PubMed

Balss, Karin M; Long, Frederick H; Veselov, Vladimir; Orana, Argjenta; Akerman-Revis, Eugena; Papandreou, George; Maryanoff, Cynthia A

2008-07-01

Multivariate data analysis was applied to confocal Raman measurements on stents coated with the polymers and drug used in the CYPHER Sirolimus-eluting Coronary Stents. Partial least-squares (PLS) regression was used to establish three independent calibration curves for the coating constituents: sirolimus, poly(n-butyl methacrylate) [PBMA], and poly(ethylene-co-vinyl acetate) [PEVA]. The PLS calibrations were based on average spectra generated from each spatial location profiled. The PLS models were tested on six unknown stent samples to assess accuracy and precision. The wt % difference between PLS predictions and laboratory assay values for sirolimus was less than 1 wt % for the composite of the six unknowns, while the polymer models were estimated to be less than 0.5 wt % difference for the combined samples. The linearity and specificity of the three PLS models were also demonstrated with the three PLS models. In contrast to earlier univariate models, the PLS models achieved mass balance with better accuracy. This analysis was extended to evaluate the spatial distribution of the three constituents. Quantitative bitmap images of drug-eluting stent coatings are presented for the first time to assess the local distribution of components.

A geostatistical approach to the change-of-support problem and variable-support data fusion in spatial analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Wang, Yang; Zeng, Hui

2016-01-01

A key issue to address in synthesizing spatial data with variable-support in spatial analysis and modeling is the change-of-support problem. We present an approach for solving the change-of-support and variable-support data fusion problems. This approach is based on geostatistical inverse modeling that explicitly accounts for differences in spatial support. The inverse model is applied here to produce both the best predictions of a target support and prediction uncertainties, based on one or more measurements, while honoring measurements. Spatial data covering large geographic areas often exhibit spatial nonstationarity and can lead to computational challenge due to the large data size. We developed a local-window geostatistical inverse modeling approach to accommodate these issues of spatial nonstationarity and alleviate computational burden. We conducted experiments using synthetic and real-world raster data. Synthetic data were generated and aggregated to multiple supports and downscaled back to the original support to analyze the accuracy of spatial predictions and the correctness of prediction uncertainties. Similar experiments were conducted for real-world raster data. Real-world data with variable-support were statistically fused to produce single-support predictions and associated uncertainties. The modeling results demonstrate that geostatistical inverse modeling can produce accurate predictions and associated prediction uncertainties. It is shown that the local-window geostatistical inverse modeling approach suggested offers a practical way to solve the well-known change-of-support problem and variable-support data fusion problem in spatial analysis and modeling.

Numerical Approach to Spatial Deterministic-Stochastic Models Arising in Cell Biology

PubMed Central

Gao, Fei; Li, Ye; Novak, Igor L.; Slepchenko, Boris M.

2016-01-01

Hybrid deterministic-stochastic methods provide an efficient alternative to a fully stochastic treatment of models which include components with disparate levels of stochasticity. However, general-purpose hybrid solvers for spatially resolved simulations of reaction-diffusion systems are not widely available. Here we describe fundamentals of a general-purpose spatial hybrid method. The method generates realizations of a spatially inhomogeneous hybrid system by appropriately integrating capabilities of a deterministic partial differential equation solver with a popular particle-based stochastic simulator, Smoldyn. Rigorous validation of the algorithm is detailed, using a simple model of calcium ‘sparks’ as a testbed. The solver is then applied to a deterministic-stochastic model of spontaneous emergence of cell polarity. The approach is general enough to be implemented within biologist-friendly software frameworks such as Virtual Cell. PMID:27959915

Modeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bled, Florent; Sauer, John R.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Doherty, Paul; Royle, J. Andy

2013-01-01

Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

Implementations of geographically weighted lasso in spatial data with multicollinearity (Case study: Poverty modeling of Java Island)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiyorini, Anis; Suprijadi, Jadi; Handoko, Budhi

2017-03-01

Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is a regression model that takes into account the spatial heterogeneity effect. In the application of the GWR, inference on regression coefficients is often of interest, as is estimation and prediction of the response variable. Empirical research and studies have demonstrated that local correlation between explanatory variables can lead to estimated regression coefficients in GWR that are strongly correlated, a condition named multicollinearity. It later results on a large standard error on estimated regression coefficients, and, hence, problematic for inference on relationships between variables. Geographically Weighted Lasso (GWL) is a method which capable to deal with spatial heterogeneity and local multicollinearity in spatial data sets. GWL is a further development of GWR method, which adds a LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) constraint in parameter estimation. In this study, GWL will be applied by using fixed exponential kernel weights matrix to establish a poverty modeling of Java Island, Indonesia. The results of applying the GWL to poverty datasets show that this method stabilizes regression coefficients in the presence of multicollinearity and produces lower prediction and estimation error of the response variable than GWR does.

The Challenges to Coupling Dynamic Geospatial Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldstein, N

2006-06-23

Many applications of modeling spatial dynamic systems focus on a single system and a single process, ignoring the geographic and systemic context of the processes being modeled. A solution to this problem is the coupled modeling of spatial dynamic systems. Coupled modeling is challenging for both technical reasons, as well as conceptual reasons. This paper explores the benefits and challenges to coupling or linking spatial dynamic models, from loose coupling, where information transfer between models is done by hand, to tight coupling, where two (or more) models are merged as one. To illustrate the challenges, a coupled model of Urbanizationmore » and Wildfire Risk is presented. This model, called Vesta, was applied to the Santa Barbara, California region (using real geospatial data), where Urbanization and Wildfires occur and recur, respectively. The preliminary results of the model coupling illustrate that coupled modeling can lead to insight into the consequences of processes acting on their own.« less

Space versus Place in Complex Human-Natural Systems: Spatial and Multi-level Models of Tropical Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) in Guatemala

PubMed Central

López-Carr, David; Davis, Jason; Jankowska, Marta; Grant, Laura; López-Carr, Anna Carla; Clark, Matthew

2013-01-01

The relative role of space and place has long been debated in geography. Yet modeling efforts applied to coupled human-natural systems seemingly favor models assuming continuous spatial relationships. We examine the relative importance of placebased hierarchical versus spatial clustering influences in tropical land use/cover change (LUCC). Guatemala was chosen as our study site given its high rural population growth and deforestation in recent decades. We test predictors of 2009 forest cover and forest cover change from 2001-2009 across Guatemala's 331 municipalities and 22 departments using spatial and multi-level statistical models. Our results indicate the emergence of several socio-economic predictors of LUCC regardless of model choice. Hierarchical model results suggest that significant differences exist at the municipal and departmental levels but largely maintain the magnitude and direction of single-level model coefficient estimates. They are also intervention-relevant since policies tend to be applicable to distinct political units rather than to continuous space. Spatial models complement hierarchical approaches by indicating where and to what magnitude significant negative and positive clustering associations emerge. Appreciating the comparative advantages and limitations of spatial and nested models enhances a holistic approach to geographical analysis of tropical LUCC and human-environment interactions. PMID:24013908

Projected Irrigation Requirement Under Climate Change in Korean Peninsula by Apply Global Hydrologic Model to Local Scale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, B.; Lee, D. K.

2016-12-01

Understanding spatial distribution of irrigation requirement is critically important for agricultural water management. However, many studies considering future agricultural water management in Korea assessed irrigation requirement on watershed or administrative district scale, but have not accounted the spatial distribution. Lumped hydrologic model has typically used in Korea for simulating watershed scale irrigation requirement, while distribution hydrologic model can simulate the spatial distribution grid by grid. To overcome this shortcoming, here we applied a grid base global hydrologic model (H08) into local scale to estimate spatial distribution under future irrigation requirement of Korean Peninsula. Korea is one of the world's most densely populated countries, with also high produce and demand of rice which requires higher soil moisture than other crops. Although, most of the precipitation concentrate in particular season and disagree with crop growth season. This precipitation character makes management of agricultural water which is approximately 60% of total water usage critical issue in Korea. Furthermore, under future climate change, the precipitation predicted to be more concentrated and necessary need change of future water management plan. In order to apply global hydrological model into local scale, we selected appropriate major crops under social and local climate condition in Korea to estimate cropping area and yield, and revised the cropping area map more accurately. As a result, future irrigation requirement estimation varies under each projection, however, slightly decreased in most case. The simulation reveals, evapotranspiration increase slightly while effective precipitation also increase to balance the irrigation requirement. This finding suggest practical guideline to decision makers for further agricultural water management plan including future development of water supply plan to resolve water scarcity.

Validating spatiotemporal predictions of an important pest of small grains.

PubMed

Merrill, Scott C; Holtzer, Thomas O; Peairs, Frank B; Lester, Philip J

2015-01-01

Arthropod pests are typically managed using tactics applied uniformly to the whole field. Precision pest management applies tactics under the assumption that within-field pest pressure differences exist. This approach allows for more precise and judicious use of scouting resources and management tactics. For example, a portion of a field delineated as attractive to pests may be selected to receive extra monitoring attention. Likely because of the high variability in pest dynamics, little attention has been given to developing precision pest prediction models. Here, multimodel synthesis was used to develop a spatiotemporal model predicting the density of a key pest of wheat, the Russian wheat aphid, Diuraphis noxia (Kurdjumov). Spatially implicit and spatially explicit models were synthesized to generate spatiotemporal pest pressure predictions. Cross-validation and field validation were used to confirm model efficacy. A strong within-field signal depicting aphid density was confirmed with low prediction errors. Results show that the within-field model predictions will provide higher-quality information than would be provided by traditional field scouting. With improvements to the broad-scale model component, the model synthesis approach and resulting tool could improve pest management strategy and provide a template for the development of spatially explicit pest pressure models. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Path-integral Monte Carlo method for Rényi entanglement entropies.

PubMed

Herdman, C M; Inglis, Stephen; Roy, P-N; Melko, R G; Del Maestro, A

2014-07-01

We introduce a quantum Monte Carlo algorithm to measure the Rényi entanglement entropies in systems of interacting bosons in the continuum. This approach is based on a path-integral ground state method that can be applied to interacting itinerant bosons in any spatial dimension with direct relevance to experimental systems of quantum fluids. We demonstrate how it may be used to compute spatial mode entanglement, particle partitioned entanglement, and the entanglement of particles, providing insights into quantum correlations generated by fluctuations, indistinguishability, and interactions. We present proof-of-principle calculations and benchmark against an exactly soluble model of interacting bosons in one spatial dimension. As this algorithm retains the fundamental polynomial scaling of quantum Monte Carlo when applied to sign-problem-free models, future applications should allow for the study of entanglement entropy in large-scale many-body systems of interacting bosons.

The Application of NASA Technology to Public Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rickman, Douglas L.; Watts, C.

2007-01-01

NASA scientists have a history of applying technologies created to handle satellite data to human health at various spatial scales. Scientists are now engaged in multiple public health application projects that integrate NASA satellite data with measures of public health. Such integration requires overcoming disparities between the environmental and the health data. Ground based sensors, satellite imagery, model outputs and other environmental sources have inconsistent spatial and temporal distributions. The MSFC team has recognized the approach used by environmental scientists to fill in the empty places can also be applied to outcomes, exposures and similar data. A revisit to the classic epidemiology study of 1854 using modern day surface modeling and GIS technology, demonstrates how spatial technology can enhance and change the future of environmental epidemiology. Thus, NASA brings to public health, not just a set of data, but an innovative way of thinking about the data.

Rule-based modeling and simulations of the inner kinetochore structure.

PubMed

Tschernyschkow, Sergej; Herda, Sabine; Gruenert, Gerd; Döring, Volker; Görlich, Dennis; Hofmeister, Antje; Hoischen, Christian; Dittrich, Peter; Diekmann, Stephan; Ibrahim, Bashar

2013-09-01

Combinatorial complexity is a central problem when modeling biochemical reaction networks, since the association of a few components can give rise to a large variation of protein complexes. Available classical modeling approaches are often insufficient for the analysis of very large and complex networks in detail. Recently, we developed a new rule-based modeling approach that facilitates the analysis of spatial and combinatorially complex problems. Here, we explore for the first time how this approach can be applied to a specific biological system, the human kinetochore, which is a multi-protein complex involving over 100 proteins. Applying our freely available SRSim software to a large data set on kinetochore proteins in human cells, we construct a spatial rule-based simulation model of the human inner kinetochore. The model generates an estimation of the probability distribution of the inner kinetochore 3D architecture and we show how to analyze this distribution using information theory. In our model, the formation of a bridge between CenpA and an H3 containing nucleosome only occurs efficiently for higher protein concentration realized during S-phase but may be not in G1. Above a certain nucleosome distance the protein bridge barely formed pointing towards the importance of chromatin structure for kinetochore complex formation. We define a metric for the distance between structures that allow us to identify structural clusters. Using this modeling technique, we explore different hypothetical chromatin layouts. Applying a rule-based network analysis to the spatial kinetochore complex geometry allowed us to integrate experimental data on kinetochore proteins, suggesting a 3D model of the human inner kinetochore architecture that is governed by a combinatorial algebraic reaction network. This reaction network can serve as bridge between multiple scales of modeling. Our approach can be applied to other systems beyond kinetochores. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benefits of incorporating spatial organisation of catchments for a semi-distributed hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumann, Andreas; Oppel, Henning

2017-04-01

To represent the hydrological behaviour of catchments a model should reproduce/reflect the hydrologically most relevant catchment characteristics. These are heterogeneously distributed within a watershed but often interrelated and subject of a certain spatial organisation. Since common models are mostly based on fundamental assumptions about hydrological processes, the reduction of variance of catchment properties as well as the incorporation of the spatial organisation of the catchment is desirable. We have developed a method that combines the idea of the width-function used for determination of the geomorphologic unit hydrograph with information about soil or topography. With this method we are able to assess the spatial organisation of selected catchment characteristics. An algorithm was developed that structures a watershed into sub-basins and other spatial units to minimise its heterogeneity. The outcomes of this algorithm are used for the spatial setup of a semi-distributed model. Since the spatial organisation of a catchment is not bound to a single characteristic, we have to embed information of multiple catchment properties. For this purpose we applied a fuzzy-based method to combine the spatial setup for multiple single characteristics into a union, optimal spatial differentiation. Utilizing this method, we are able to propose a spatial structure for a semi-distributed hydrological model, comprising the definition of sub-basins and a zonal classification within each sub-basin. Besides the improved spatial structuring, the performed analysis ameliorates modelling in another way. The spatial variability of catchment characteristics, which is considered by a minimum of heterogeneity in the zones, can be considered in a parameter constrained calibration scheme in a case study both options were used to explore the benefits of incorporating the spatial organisation and derived parameter constraints for the parametrisation of a HBV-96 model. We use two benchmark model setups (lumped and semi-distributed by common approaches) to address the benefits for different time and spatial scales. Moreover, the benefits for calibration effort, model performance in validation periods and process extrapolation are shown.

Autoregressive modelling of species richness in the Brazilian Cerrado.

PubMed

Vieira, C M; Blamires, D; Diniz-Filho, J A F; Bini, L M; Rangel, T F L V B

2008-05-01

Spatial autocorrelation is the lack of independence between pairs of observations at given distances within a geographical space, a phenomenon commonly found in ecological data. Taking into account spatial autocorrelation when evaluating problems in geographical ecology, including gradients in species richness, is important to describe both the spatial structure in data and to correct the bias in Type I errors of standard statistical analyses. However, to effectively solve these problems it is necessary to establish the best way to incorporate the spatial structure to be used in the models. In this paper, we applied autoregressive models based on different types of connections and distances between 181 cells covering the Cerrado region of Central Brazil to study the spatial variation in mammal and bird species richness across the biome. Spatial structure was stronger for birds than for mammals, with R(2) values ranging from 0.77 to 0.94 for mammals and from 0.77 to 0.97 for birds, for models based on different definitions of spatial structures. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best autoregressive model was obtained by using the rook connection. In general, these results furnish guidelines for future modelling of species richness patterns in relation to environmental predictors and other variables expressing human occupation in the biome.

Modeling space-time correlations of velocity fluctuations in wind farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukassen, Laura J.; Stevens, Richard J. A. M.; Meneveau, Charles; Wilczek, Michael

2018-07-01

An analytical model for the streamwise velocity space-time correlations in turbulent flows is derived and applied to the special case of velocity fluctuations in large wind farms. The model is based on the Kraichnan-Tennekes random sweeping hypothesis, capturing the decorrelation in time while including a mean wind velocity in the streamwise direction. In the resulting model, the streamwise velocity space-time correlation is expressed as a convolution of the pure space correlation with an analytical temporal decorrelation kernel. Hence, the spatio-temporal structure of velocity fluctuations in wind farms can be derived from the spatial correlations only. We then explore the applicability of the model to predict spatio-temporal correlations in turbulent flows in wind farms. Comparisons of the model with data from a large eddy simulation of flow in a large, spatially periodic wind farm are performed, where needed model parameters such as spatial and temporal integral scales and spatial correlations are determined from the large eddy simulation. Good agreement is obtained between the model and large eddy simulation data showing that spatial data may be used to model the full temporal structure of fluctuations in wind farms.

Spatial calibration and temporal validation of flow for regional scale hydrologic modeling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Physically based regional scale hydrologic modeling is gaining importance for planning and management of water resources. Calibration and validation of such regional scale model is necessary before applying it for scenario assessment. However, in most regional scale hydrologic modeling, flow validat...

Effects of Heterogeniety on Spatial Pattern Analysis of Wild Pistachio Trees in Zagros Woodlands, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erfanifard, Y.; Rezayan, F.

2014-10-01

Vegetation heterogeneity biases second-order summary statistics, e.g., Ripley's K-function, applied for spatial pattern analysis in ecology. Second-order investigation based on Ripley's K-function and related statistics (i.e., L- and pair correlation function g) is widely used in ecology to develop hypothesis on underlying processes by characterizing spatial patterns of vegetation. The aim of this study was to demonstrate effects of underlying heterogeneity of wild pistachio (Pistacia atlantica Desf.) trees on the second-order summary statistics of point pattern analysis in a part of Zagros woodlands, Iran. The spatial distribution of 431 wild pistachio trees was accurately mapped in a 40 ha stand in the Wild Pistachio & Almond Research Site, Fars province, Iran. Three commonly used second-order summary statistics (i.e., K-, L-, and g-functions) were applied to analyse their spatial pattern. The two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test showed that the observed pattern significantly followed an inhomogeneous Poisson process null model in the study region. The results also showed that heterogeneous pattern of wild pistachio trees biased the homogeneous form of K-, L-, and g-functions, demonstrating a stronger aggregation of the trees at the scales of 0-50 m than actually existed and an aggregation at scales of 150-200 m, while regularly distributed. Consequently, we showed that heterogeneity of point patterns may bias the results of homogeneous second-order summary statistics and we also suggested applying inhomogeneous summary statistics with related null models for spatial pattern analysis of heterogeneous vegetations.

Cluster detection methods applied to the Upper Cape Cod cancer data.

PubMed

Ozonoff, Al; Webster, Thomas; Vieira, Veronica; Weinberg, Janice; Ozonoff, David; Aschengrau, Ann

2005-09-15

A variety of statistical methods have been suggested to assess the degree and/or the location of spatial clustering of disease cases. However, there is relatively little in the literature devoted to comparison and critique of different methods. Most of the available comparative studies rely on simulated data rather than real data sets. We have chosen three methods currently used for examining spatial disease patterns: the M-statistic of Bonetti and Pagano; the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) method as applied by Webster; and Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. We apply these statistics to analyze breast cancer data from the Upper Cape Cancer Incidence Study using three different latency assumptions. The three different latency assumptions produced three different spatial patterns of cases and controls. For 20 year latency, all three methods generally concur. However, for 15 year latency and no latency assumptions, the methods produce different results when testing for global clustering. The comparative analyses of real data sets by different statistical methods provides insight into directions for further research. We suggest a research program designed around examining real data sets to guide focused investigation of relevant features using simulated data, for the purpose of understanding how to interpret statistical methods applied to epidemiological data with a spatial component.

Analysis and modeling of localized invariant solutions in pipe flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritter, Paul; Zammert, Stefan; Song, Baofang; Eckhardt, Bruno; Avila, Marc

2018-01-01

Turbulent spots surrounded by laminar flow are a landmark of transitional shear flows, but the dependence of their kinematic properties on spatial structure is poorly understood. We here investigate this dependence in pipe flow for Reynolds numbers between 1500 and 5000. We compute spatially localized relative periodic orbits in long pipes and show that their upstream and downstream fronts decay exponentially towards the laminar profile. This allows us to model the fronts by employing the linearized Navier-Stokes equations, and the resulting model yields the spatial decay rate and the front velocity profiles of the periodic orbits as a function of Reynolds number, azimuthal wave number, and propagation speed. In addition, when applied to a localized turbulent puff, the model is shown to accurately approximate the spatial decay rate of its upstream and downstream tails. Our study provides insight into the relationship between the kinematics and spatial structure of localized turbulence and more generally into the physics of localization.

A catchment-scale model to predict spatial and temporal burden of E. coli on pasture from grazing livestock.

PubMed

Oliver, David M; Bartie, Phil J; Louise Heathwaite, A; Reaney, Sim M; Parnell, Jared A Q; Quilliam, Richard S

2018-03-01

Effective management of diffuse microbial water pollution from agriculture requires a fundamental understanding of how spatial patterns of microbial pollutants, e.g. E. coli, vary over time at the landscape scale. The aim of this study was to apply the Visualising Pathogen &Environmental Risk (ViPER) model, developed to predict E. coli burden on agricultural land, in a spatially distributed manner to two contrasting catchments in order to map and understand changes in E. coli burden contributed to land from grazing livestock. The model was applied to the River Ayr and Lunan Water catchments, with significant correlations observed between area of improved grassland and the maximum total E. coli per 1km 2 grid cell (Ayr: r=0.57; p<0.001, Lunan: r=0.32; p<0.001). There was a significant difference in the predicted maximum E. coli burden between seasons in both catchments, with summer and autumn predicted to accrue higher E. coli contributions relative to spring and winter (P<0.001), driven largely by livestock presence. The ViPER model thus describes, at the landscape scale, spatial nuances in the vulnerability of E. coli loading to land as driven by stocking density and livestock grazing regimes. Resulting risk maps therefore provide the underpinning evidence to inform spatially-targeted decision-making with respect to managing sources of E. coli in agricultural environments. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Active Fire Temperature Retrieval Model Using Hyperspectral Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quigley, K. W.; Roberts, D. A.; Miller, D.

2017-12-01

Wildfire is both an important ecological process and a dangerous natural threat that humans face. In situ measurements of wildfire temperature are notoriously difficult to collect due to dangerous conditions. Imaging spectrometry data has the potential to provide some of the most accurate and highest temporally-resolved active fire temperature retrieval information for monitoring and modeling. Recent studies on fire temperature retrieval have used have used Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis applied to Airborne Visible applied to Airborne Visible / Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) bands to model fire temperatures within the regions marked to contain fire, but these methods are less effective at coarser spatial resolutions, as linear mixing methods are degraded by saturation within the pixel. The assumption of a distribution of temperatures within pixels allows us to model pixels with an effective maximum and likely minimum temperature. This assumption allows a more robust approach to modeling temperature at different spatial scales. In this study, instrument-corrected radiance is forward-modeled for different ranges of temperatures, with weighted temperatures from an effective maximum temperature to a likely minimum temperature contributing to the total radiance of the modeled pixel. Effective maximum fire temperature is estimated by minimizing the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between modeled and measured fires. The model was tested using AVIRIS collected over the 2016 Sherpa Fire in Santa Barbara County, California,. While only in situ experimentation would be able to confirm active fire temperatures, the fit of the data to modeled radiance can be assessed, as well as the similarity in temperature distributions seen on different spatial resolution scales. Results show that this model improves upon current modeling methods in producing similar effective temperatures on multiple spatial scales as well as a similar modeled area distribution of those temperatures.

A Latent Class Unfolding Model for Analyzing Single Stimulus Preference Ratings.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Soete, Geert; Heiser, Willem J.

1993-01-01

A latent class unfolding model is developed for single stimulus preference ratings. One advantage is the possibility of testing the spatial unfolding model against the unconstrained latent class model for rating data. The model is applied to data about party preferences of members of the Dutch parliament. (SLD)

A probabilistic verification score for contours demonstrated with idealized ice-edge forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goessling, Helge; Jung, Thomas

2017-04-01

We introduce a probabilistic verification score for ensemble-based forecasts of contours: the Spatial Probability Score (SPS). Defined as the spatial integral of local (Half) Brier Scores, the SPS can be considered the spatial analog of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). Applying the SPS to idealized seasonal ensemble forecasts of the Arctic sea-ice edge in a global coupled climate model, we demonstrate that the SPS responds properly to ensemble size, bias, and spread. When applied to individual forecasts or ensemble means (or quantiles), the SPS is reduced to the 'volume' of mismatch, in case of the ice edge corresponding to the Integrated Ice Edge Error (IIEE).

Assessment of Required Accuracy of Digital Elevation Data for Hydrologic Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenward, T.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

1997-01-01

The effect of vertical accuracy of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) on hydrologic models is evaluated by comparing three DEMs and resulting hydrologic model predictions applied to a 7.2 sq km USDA - ARS watershed at Mahantango Creek, PA. The high resolution (5 m) DEM was resempled to a 30 m resolution using method that constrained the spatial structure of the elevations to be comparable with the USGS and SIR-C DEMs. This resulting 30 m DEM was used as the reference product for subsequent comparisons. Spatial fields of directly derived quantities, such as elevation differences, slope, and contributing area, were compared to the reference product, as were hydrologic model output fields derived using each of the three DEMs at the common 30 m spatial resolution.

A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models

PubMed Central

Whittington, Jesse; Sawaya, Michael A.

2015-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal’s home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786–1.071) for females, 0.844 (0.703–0.975) for males, and 0.882 (0.779–0.981) for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758–1.024) for females, 0.825 (0.700–0.948) for males, and 0.863 (0.771–0.957) for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative population growth rates suggest that Banff National Park’s population of grizzly bears requires continued conservation-oriented management actions. PMID:26230262

Probability density of spatially distributed soil moisture inferred from crosshole georadar traveltime measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linde, N.; Vrugt, J. A.

2009-04-01

Geophysical models are increasingly used in hydrological simulations and inversions, where they are typically treated as an artificial data source with known uncorrelated "data errors". The model appraisal problem in classical deterministic linear and non-linear inversion approaches based on linearization is often addressed by calculating model resolution and model covariance matrices. These measures offer only a limited potential to assign a more appropriate "data covariance matrix" for future hydrological applications, simply because the regularization operators used to construct a stable inverse solution bear a strong imprint on such estimates and because the non-linearity of the geophysical inverse problem is not explored. We present a parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to efficiently derive the posterior spatially distributed radar slowness and water content between boreholes given first-arrival traveltimes. This method is called DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM_ZS) with snooker updater and sampling from past states. Our inverse scheme does not impose any smoothness on the final solution, and uses uniform prior ranges of the parameters. The posterior distribution of radar slowness is converted into spatially distributed soil moisture values using a petrophysical relationship. To benchmark the performance of DREAM_ZS, we first apply our inverse method to a synthetic two-dimensional infiltration experiment using 9421 traveltimes contaminated with Gaussian errors and 80 different model parameters, corresponding to a model discretization of 0.3 m × 0.3 m. After this, the method is applied to field data acquired in the vadose zone during snowmelt. This work demonstrates that fully non-linear stochastic inversion can be applied with few limiting assumptions to a range of common two-dimensional tomographic geophysical problems. The main advantage of DREAM_ZS is that it provides a full view of the posterior distribution of spatially distributed soil moisture, which is key to appropriately treat geophysical parameter uncertainty and infer hydrologic models.

Soil erosion and sediment delivery in a mountain catchment under scenarios of land use change using a spatially distributed numerical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alatorre, L. C.; Beguería, S.; Lana-Renault, N.; Navas, A.; García-Ruiz, J. M.

2012-05-01

Soil erosion and sediment yield are strongly affected by land use/land cover (LULC). Spatially distributed erosion models are of great interest to assess the expected effect of LULC changes on soil erosion and sediment yield. However, they can only be applied if spatially distributed data is available for their calibration. In this study the soil erosion and sediment delivery model WATEM/SEDEM was applied to a small (2.84 km2) experimental catchment in the Central Spanish Pyrenees. Model calibration was performed based on a dataset of soil redistribution rates derived from point 137Cs inventories, allowing capture differences per land use in the main model parameters. Model calibration showed a good convergence to a global optimum in the parameter space, which was not possible to attain if only external (not spatially distributed) sediment yield data were available. Validation of the model results against seven years of recorded sediment yield at the catchment outlet was satisfactory. Two LULC scenarios were then modeled to reproduce land use at the beginning of the twentieth century and a hypothetic future scenario, and to compare the simulation results to the current LULC situation. The results show a reduction of about one order of magnitude in gross erosion (3180 to 350 Mg yr-1) and sediment delivery (11.2 to 1.2 Mg yr-1 ha-1) during the last decades as a result of the abandonment of traditional land uses (mostly agriculture) and subsequent vegetation recolonization. The simulation also allowed assessing differences in the sediment sources and sinks within the catchment.

Spatial modeling of potential woody biomass flow

Treesearch

Woodam Chung; Nathaniel Anderson

2012-01-01

The flow of woody biomass to end users is determined by economic factors, especially the amount available across a landscape and delivery costs of bioenergy facilities. The objective of this study develop methodology to quantify landscape-level stocks and potential biomass flows using the currently available spatial database road network analysis tool. We applied this...

Addressing Spatial Dependence Bias in Climate Model Simulations—An Independent Component Analysis Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nahar, Jannatun; Johnson, Fiona; Sharma, Ashish

2018-02-01

Conventional bias correction is usually applied on a grid-by-grid basis, meaning that the resulting corrections cannot address biases in the spatial distribution of climate variables. To solve this problem, a two-step bias correction method is proposed here to correct time series at multiple locations conjointly. The first step transforms the data to a set of statistically independent univariate time series, using a technique known as independent component analysis (ICA). The mutually independent signals can then be bias corrected as univariate time series and back-transformed to improve the representation of spatial dependence in the data. The spatially corrected data are then bias corrected at the grid scale in the second step. The method has been applied to two CMIP5 General Circulation Model simulations for six different climate regions of Australia for two climate variables—temperature and precipitation. The results demonstrate that the ICA-based technique leads to considerable improvements in temperature simulations with more modest improvements in precipitation. Overall, the method results in current climate simulations that have greater equivalency in space and time with observational data.

A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

2017-01-01

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance that comparative analyses are colored by model details rather than general principles

A spectral method for spatial downscaling | Science Inventory ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Complex computer models play a crucial role in air quality research. These models are used to evaluate potential regulatory impacts of emission control strategies and to estimate air quality in areas without monitoring data. For both of these purposes, it is important to calibrate model output with monitoring data to adjust for model biases and improve spatial prediction. In this paper, we propose a new spectral method to study and exploit complex relationships between model output and monitoring data. Spectral methods allow us to estimate the relationship between model output and monitoring data separately at different spatial scales, and to use model output for prediction only at the appropriate scales. The proposed method is computationally efficient and can be implemented using standard software. We apply the method to compare Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model output with ozone measurements in the United States in July, 2005. We find that CMAQ captures large-scale spatial trends, but has low correlation with the monitoring data at small spatial scales. The National Exposure Research Laboratory′s (NERL′s)Atmospheric Modeling Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA′s mission to protect human health and the environment. AMAD′s research program is engaged in developing and evaluating predictive atmospheric models on all spatial and temporal scales for forecasting the Nation′s air quality and for assessing ch

Local regression type methods applied to the study of geophysics and high frequency financial data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariani, M. C.; Basu, K.

2014-09-01

In this work we applied locally weighted scatterplot smoothing techniques (Lowess/Loess) to Geophysical and high frequency financial data. We first analyze and apply this technique to the California earthquake geological data. A spatial analysis was performed to show that the estimation of the earthquake magnitude at a fixed location is very accurate up to the relative error of 0.01%. We also applied the same method to a high frequency data set arising in the financial sector and obtained similar satisfactory results. The application of this approach to the two different data sets demonstrates that the overall method is accurate and efficient, and the Lowess approach is much more desirable than the Loess method. The previous works studied the time series analysis; in this paper our local regression models perform a spatial analysis for the geophysics data providing different information. For the high frequency data, our models estimate the curve of best fit where data are dependent on time.

Simulating Future Changes in Spatio-temporal Precipitation by Identifying and Characterizing Individual Rainstorm Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, W.; Stein, M.; Wang, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Moyer, E. J.

2015-12-01

A growing body of literature suggests that human-induced climate change may cause significant changes in precipitation patterns, which could in turn influence future flood levels and frequencies and water supply and management practices. Although climate models produce full three-dimensional simulations of precipitation, analyses of model precipitation have focused either on time-averaged distributions or on individual timeseries with no spatial information. We describe here a new approach based on identifying and characterizing individual rainstorms in either data or model output. Our approach enables us to readily characterize important spatio-temporal aspects of rainstorms including initiation location, intensity (mean and patterns), spatial extent, duration, and trajectory. We apply this technique to high-resolution precipitation over the continental U.S. both from radar-based observations (NCEP Stage IV QPE product, 1-hourly, 4 km spatial resolution) and from model runs with dynamical downscaling (WRF regional climate model, 3-hourly, 12 km spatial resolution). In the model studies we investigate the changes in storm characteristics under a business-as-usual warming scenario to 2100 (RCP 8.5). We find that in these model runs, rainstorm intensity increases as expected with rising temperatures (approximately 7%/K, following increased atmospheric moisture content), while total precipitation increases by a lesser amount (3%/K), consistent with other studies. We identify for the first time the necessary compensating mechanism: in these model runs, individual precipitation events become smaller. Other aspects are approximately unchanged in the warmer climate. Because these spatio-temporal changes in rainfall patterns would impact regional hydrology, it is important that they be accurately incorporated into any impacts assessment. For this purpose we have developed a methodology for producing scenarios of future precipitation that combine observational data and model-projected changes. We statistically describe the future changes in rainstorm characteristics suggested by the WRF model and apply those changes to observational data. The resulting high spatial and temporal resolution scenarios have immediate applications for impacts assessment and adaptation studies.

Spatial-Operator Algebra For Flexible-Link Manipulators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jain, Abhinandan; Rodriguez, Guillermo

1994-01-01

Method of computing dynamics of multiple-flexible-link robotic manipulators based on spatial-operator algebra, which originally applied to rigid-link manipulators. Aspects of spatial-operator-algebra approach described in several previous articles in NASA Tech Briefs-most recently "Robot Control Based on Spatial-Operator Algebra" (NPO-17918). In extension of spatial-operator algebra to manipulators with flexible links, each link represented by finite-element model: mass of flexible link apportioned among smaller, lumped-mass rigid bodies, coupling of motions expressed in terms of vibrational modes. This leads to operator expression for modal-mass matrix of link.

RESEARCH: Conceptualizing Environmental Stress: A Stress-Response Model of Coastal Sandy Barriers.

PubMed

Gabriel; Kreutzwiser

2000-01-01

/ The purpose of this paper is to develop and apply a conceptual framework of environmental stress-response for a geomorphic system. Constructs and methods generated from the literature were applied in the development of an integrative stress-response framework using existing environmental assessment techniques: interaction matrices and a systems diagram. Emphasis is on the interaction between environmental stress and the geomorphic environment of a sandy barrier system. The model illustrates a number of stress concepts pertinent to modeling environmental stress-response, including those related to stress-dependency, frequency-recovery relationships, environmental heterogeneity, spatial hierarchies and linkages, and temporal change. Sandy barrier stress-response and recovery are greatly impacted by fluctuating water levels, stress intensity and frequency, as well as environmental gradients such as differences in sediment storage and supply. Aspects of these stress-response variables are articulated in terms of three main challenges to management: dynamic stability, spatial integrity, and temporal variability. These in turn form the framework for evaluative principles that may be applied to assess how policies and management practices reflect key biophysical processes and human stresses identified by the model.

Modeling Soil Carbon Dynamics in Northern Forests: Effects of Spatial and Temporal Aggregation of Climatic Input Data.

PubMed

Dalsgaard, Lise; Astrup, Rasmus; Antón-Fernández, Clara; Borgen, Signe Kynding; Breidenbach, Johannes; Lange, Holger; Lehtonen, Aleksi; Liski, Jari

2016-01-01

Boreal forests contain 30% of the global forest carbon with the majority residing in soils. While challenging to quantify, soil carbon changes comprise a significant, and potentially increasing, part of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Thus, their estimation is important when designing forest-based climate change mitigation strategies and soil carbon change estimates are required for the reporting of greenhouse gas emissions. Organic matter decomposition varies with climate in complex nonlinear ways, rendering data aggregation nontrivial. Here, we explored the effects of temporal and spatial aggregation of climatic and litter input data on regional estimates of soil organic carbon stocks and changes for upland forests. We used the soil carbon and decomposition model Yasso07 with input from the Norwegian National Forest Inventory (11275 plots, 1960-2012). Estimates were produced at three spatial and three temporal scales. Results showed that a national level average soil carbon stock estimate varied by 10% depending on the applied spatial and temporal scale of aggregation. Higher stocks were found when applying plot-level input compared to country-level input and when long-term climate was used as compared to annual or 5-year mean values. A national level estimate for soil carbon change was similar across spatial scales, but was considerably (60-70%) lower when applying annual or 5-year mean climate compared to long-term mean climate reflecting the recent climatic changes in Norway. This was particularly evident for the forest-dominated districts in the southeastern and central parts of Norway and in the far north. We concluded that the sensitivity of model estimates to spatial aggregation will depend on the region of interest. Further, that using long-term climate averages during periods with strong climatic trends results in large differences in soil carbon estimates. The largest differences in this study were observed in central and northern regions with strongly increasing temperatures.

Modeling Soil Carbon Dynamics in Northern Forests: Effects of Spatial and Temporal Aggregation of Climatic Input Data

PubMed Central

Dalsgaard, Lise; Astrup, Rasmus; Antón-Fernández, Clara; Borgen, Signe Kynding; Breidenbach, Johannes; Lange, Holger; Lehtonen, Aleksi; Liski, Jari

2016-01-01

Boreal forests contain 30% of the global forest carbon with the majority residing in soils. While challenging to quantify, soil carbon changes comprise a significant, and potentially increasing, part of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Thus, their estimation is important when designing forest-based climate change mitigation strategies and soil carbon change estimates are required for the reporting of greenhouse gas emissions. Organic matter decomposition varies with climate in complex nonlinear ways, rendering data aggregation nontrivial. Here, we explored the effects of temporal and spatial aggregation of climatic and litter input data on regional estimates of soil organic carbon stocks and changes for upland forests. We used the soil carbon and decomposition model Yasso07 with input from the Norwegian National Forest Inventory (11275 plots, 1960–2012). Estimates were produced at three spatial and three temporal scales. Results showed that a national level average soil carbon stock estimate varied by 10% depending on the applied spatial and temporal scale of aggregation. Higher stocks were found when applying plot-level input compared to country-level input and when long-term climate was used as compared to annual or 5-year mean values. A national level estimate for soil carbon change was similar across spatial scales, but was considerably (60–70%) lower when applying annual or 5-year mean climate compared to long-term mean climate reflecting the recent climatic changes in Norway. This was particularly evident for the forest-dominated districts in the southeastern and central parts of Norway and in the far north. We concluded that the sensitivity of model estimates to spatial aggregation will depend on the region of interest. Further, that using long-term climate averages during periods with strong climatic trends results in large differences in soil carbon estimates. The largest differences in this study were observed in central and northern regions with strongly increasing temperatures. PMID:26901763

Stability of the thermodynamic equilibrium - A test of the validity of dynamic models as applied to gyroviscous perpendicular magnetohydrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faghihi, Mustafa; Scheffel, Jan; Spies, Guenther O.

1988-05-01

Stability of the thermodynamic equilibrium is put forward as a simple test of the validity of dynamic equations, and is applied to perpendicular gyroviscous magnetohydrodynamics (i.e., perpendicular magnetohydrodynamics with gyroviscosity added). This model turns out to be invalid because it predicts exponentially growing Alfven waves in a spatially homogeneous static equilibrium with scalar pressure.

MR-guided dynamic PET reconstruction with the kernel method and spectral temporal basis functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novosad, Philip; Reader, Andrew J.

2016-06-01

Recent advances in dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) reconstruction have demonstrated that it is possible to achieve markedly improved end-point kinetic parameter maps by incorporating a temporal model of the radiotracer directly into the reconstruction algorithm. In this work we have developed a highly constrained, fully dynamic PET reconstruction algorithm incorporating both spectral analysis temporal basis functions and spatial basis functions derived from the kernel method applied to a co-registered T1-weighted magnetic resonance (MR) image. The dynamic PET image is modelled as a linear combination of spatial and temporal basis functions, and a maximum likelihood estimate for the coefficients can be found using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Following reconstruction, kinetic fitting using any temporal model of interest can be applied. Based on a BrainWeb T1-weighted MR phantom, we performed a realistic dynamic [18F]FDG simulation study with two noise levels, and investigated the quantitative performance of the proposed reconstruction algorithm, comparing it with reconstructions incorporating either spectral analysis temporal basis functions alone or kernel spatial basis functions alone, as well as with conventional frame-independent reconstruction. Compared to the other reconstruction algorithms, the proposed algorithm achieved superior performance, offering a decrease in spatially averaged pixel-level root-mean-square-error on post-reconstruction kinetic parametric maps in the grey/white matter, as well as in the tumours when they were present on the co-registered MR image. When the tumours were not visible in the MR image, reconstruction with the proposed algorithm performed similarly to reconstruction with spectral temporal basis functions and was superior to both conventional frame-independent reconstruction and frame-independent reconstruction with kernel spatial basis functions. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a joint spectral/kernel model can also be used for effective post-reconstruction denoising, through the use of an EM-like image-space algorithm. Finally, we applied the proposed algorithm to reconstruction of real high-resolution dynamic [11C]SCH23390 data, showing promising results.

MR-guided dynamic PET reconstruction with the kernel method and spectral temporal basis functions.

PubMed

Novosad, Philip; Reader, Andrew J

2016-06-21

Recent advances in dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) reconstruction have demonstrated that it is possible to achieve markedly improved end-point kinetic parameter maps by incorporating a temporal model of the radiotracer directly into the reconstruction algorithm. In this work we have developed a highly constrained, fully dynamic PET reconstruction algorithm incorporating both spectral analysis temporal basis functions and spatial basis functions derived from the kernel method applied to a co-registered T1-weighted magnetic resonance (MR) image. The dynamic PET image is modelled as a linear combination of spatial and temporal basis functions, and a maximum likelihood estimate for the coefficients can be found using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Following reconstruction, kinetic fitting using any temporal model of interest can be applied. Based on a BrainWeb T1-weighted MR phantom, we performed a realistic dynamic [(18)F]FDG simulation study with two noise levels, and investigated the quantitative performance of the proposed reconstruction algorithm, comparing it with reconstructions incorporating either spectral analysis temporal basis functions alone or kernel spatial basis functions alone, as well as with conventional frame-independent reconstruction. Compared to the other reconstruction algorithms, the proposed algorithm achieved superior performance, offering a decrease in spatially averaged pixel-level root-mean-square-error on post-reconstruction kinetic parametric maps in the grey/white matter, as well as in the tumours when they were present on the co-registered MR image. When the tumours were not visible in the MR image, reconstruction with the proposed algorithm performed similarly to reconstruction with spectral temporal basis functions and was superior to both conventional frame-independent reconstruction and frame-independent reconstruction with kernel spatial basis functions. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a joint spectral/kernel model can also be used for effective post-reconstruction denoising, through the use of an EM-like image-space algorithm. Finally, we applied the proposed algorithm to reconstruction of real high-resolution dynamic [(11)C]SCH23390 data, showing promising results.

Causal modelling applied to the risk assessment of a wastewater discharge.

PubMed

Paul, Warren L; Rokahr, Pat A; Webb, Jeff M; Rees, Gavin N; Clune, Tim S

2016-03-01

Bayesian networks (BNs), or causal Bayesian networks, have become quite popular in ecological risk assessment and natural resource management because of their utility as a communication and decision-support tool. Since their development in the field of artificial intelligence in the 1980s, however, Bayesian networks have evolved and merged with structural equation modelling (SEM). Unlike BNs, which are constrained to encode causal knowledge in conditional probability tables, SEMs encode this knowledge in structural equations, which is thought to be a more natural language for expressing causal information. This merger has clarified the causal content of SEMs and generalised the method such that it can now be performed using standard statistical techniques. As it was with BNs, the utility of this new generation of SEM in ecological risk assessment will need to be demonstrated with examples to foster an understanding and acceptance of the method. Here, we applied SEM to the risk assessment of a wastewater discharge to a stream, with a particular focus on the process of translating a causal diagram (conceptual model) into a statistical model which might then be used in the decision-making and evaluation stages of the risk assessment. The process of building and testing a spatial causal model is demonstrated using data from a spatial sampling design, and the implications of the resulting model are discussed in terms of the risk assessment. It is argued that a spatiotemporal causal model would have greater external validity than the spatial model, enabling broader generalisations to be made regarding the impact of a discharge, and greater value as a tool for evaluating the effects of potential treatment plant upgrades. Suggestions are made on how the causal model could be augmented to include temporal as well as spatial information, including suggestions for appropriate statistical models and analyses.

Anthropogenic heat flux: advisable spatial resolutions when input data are scarce

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabey, A. M.; Grimmond, C. S. B.; Capel-Timms, I.

2018-02-01

Anthropogenic heat flux (QF) may be significant in cities, especially under low solar irradiance and at night. It is of interest to many practitioners including meteorologists, city planners and climatologists. QF estimates at fine temporal and spatial resolution can be derived from models that use varying amounts of empirical data. This study compares simple and detailed models in a European megacity (London) at 500 m spatial resolution. The simple model (LQF) uses spatially resolved population data and national energy statistics. The detailed model (GQF) additionally uses local energy, road network and workday population data. The Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and bias are used to rate the skill with which the simple model reproduces the spatial patterns and magnitudes of QF, and its sub-components, from the detailed model. LQF skill was consistently good across 90% of the city, away from the centre and major roads. The remaining 10% contained elevated emissions and "hot spots" representing 30-40% of the total city-wide energy. This structure was lost because it requires workday population, spatially resolved building energy consumption and/or road network data. Daily total building and traffic energy consumption estimates from national data were within ± 40% of local values. Progressively coarser spatial resolutions to 5 km improved skill for total QF, but important features (hot spots, transport network) were lost at all resolutions when residential population controlled spatial variations. The results demonstrate that simple QF models should be applied with conservative spatial resolution in cities that, like London, exhibit time-varying energy use patterns.

A cortical edge-integration model of object-based lightness computation that explains effects of spatial context and individual differences

PubMed Central

Rudd, Michael E.

2014-01-01

Previous work has demonstrated that perceived surface reflectance (lightness) can be modeled in simple contexts in a quantitatively exact way by assuming that the visual system first extracts information about local, directed steps in log luminance, then spatially integrates these steps along paths through the image to compute lightness (Rudd and Zemach, 2004, 2005, 2007). This method of computing lightness is called edge integration. Recent evidence (Rudd, 2013) suggests that human vision employs a default strategy to integrate luminance steps only along paths from a common background region to the targets whose lightness is computed. This implies a role for gestalt grouping in edge-based lightness computation. Rudd (2010) further showed the perceptual weights applied to edges in lightness computation can be influenced by the observer's interpretation of luminance steps as resulting from either spatial variation in surface reflectance or illumination. This implies a role for top-down factors in any edge-based model of lightness (Rudd and Zemach, 2005). Here, I show how the separate influences of grouping and attention on lightness can be modeled in tandem by a cortical mechanism that first employs top-down signals to spatially select regions of interest for lightness computation. An object-based network computation, involving neurons that code for border-ownership, then automatically sets the neural gains applied to edge signals surviving the earlier spatial selection stage. Only the borders that survive both processing stages are spatially integrated to compute lightness. The model assumptions are consistent with those of the cortical lightness model presented earlier by Rudd (2010, 2013), and with neurophysiological data indicating extraction of local edge information in V1, network computations to establish figure-ground relations and border ownership in V2, and edge integration to encode lightness and darkness signals in V4. PMID:25202253

A cortical edge-integration model of object-based lightness computation that explains effects of spatial context and individual differences.

PubMed

Rudd, Michael E

2014-01-01

Previous work has demonstrated that perceived surface reflectance (lightness) can be modeled in simple contexts in a quantitatively exact way by assuming that the visual system first extracts information about local, directed steps in log luminance, then spatially integrates these steps along paths through the image to compute lightness (Rudd and Zemach, 2004, 2005, 2007). This method of computing lightness is called edge integration. Recent evidence (Rudd, 2013) suggests that human vision employs a default strategy to integrate luminance steps only along paths from a common background region to the targets whose lightness is computed. This implies a role for gestalt grouping in edge-based lightness computation. Rudd (2010) further showed the perceptual weights applied to edges in lightness computation can be influenced by the observer's interpretation of luminance steps as resulting from either spatial variation in surface reflectance or illumination. This implies a role for top-down factors in any edge-based model of lightness (Rudd and Zemach, 2005). Here, I show how the separate influences of grouping and attention on lightness can be modeled in tandem by a cortical mechanism that first employs top-down signals to spatially select regions of interest for lightness computation. An object-based network computation, involving neurons that code for border-ownership, then automatically sets the neural gains applied to edge signals surviving the earlier spatial selection stage. Only the borders that survive both processing stages are spatially integrated to compute lightness. The model assumptions are consistent with those of the cortical lightness model presented earlier by Rudd (2010, 2013), and with neurophysiological data indicating extraction of local edge information in V1, network computations to establish figure-ground relations and border ownership in V2, and edge integration to encode lightness and darkness signals in V4.

A Spatial Poisson Hurdle Model for Exploring Geographic Variation in Emergency Department Visits

PubMed Central

Neelon, Brian; Ghosh, Pulak; Loebs, Patrick F.

2012-01-01

Summary We develop a spatial Poisson hurdle model to explore geographic variation in emergency department (ED) visits while accounting for zero inflation. The model consists of two components: a Bernoulli component that models the probability of any ED use (i.e., at least one ED visit per year), and a truncated Poisson component that models the number of ED visits given use. Together, these components address both the abundance of zeros and the right-skewed nature of the nonzero counts. The model has a hierarchical structure that incorporates patient- and area-level covariates, as well as spatially correlated random effects for each areal unit. Because regions with high rates of ED use are likely to have high expected counts among users, we model the spatial random effects via a bivariate conditionally autoregressive (CAR) prior, which introduces dependence between the components and provides spatial smoothing and sharing of information across neighboring regions. Using a simulation study, we show that modeling the between-component correlation reduces bias in parameter estimates. We adopt a Bayesian estimation approach, and the model can be fit using standard Bayesian software. We apply the model to a study of patient and neighborhood factors influencing emergency department use in Durham County, North Carolina. PMID:23543242

Supporting the operational use of process based hydrological models and NASA Earth Observations for use in land management and post-fire remediation through a Rapid Response Erosion Database (RRED).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, M. E.; Elliot, W.; Billmire, M.; Robichaud, P. R.; Banach, D. M.

2017-12-01

We have built a Rapid Response Erosion Database (RRED, http://rred.mtri.org/rred/) for the continental United States to allow land managers to access properly formatted spatial model inputs for the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP). Spatially-explicit process-based models like WEPP require spatial inputs that include digital elevation models (DEMs), soil, climate and land cover. The online database delivers either a 10m or 30m USGS DEM, land cover derived from the Landfire project, and soil data derived from SSURGO and STATSGO datasets. The spatial layers are projected into UTM coordinates and pre-registered for modeling. WEPP soil parameter files are also created along with linkage files to match both spatial land cover and soils data with the appropriate WEPP parameter files. Our goal is to make process-based models more accessible by preparing spatial inputs ahead of time allowing modelers to focus on addressing scenarios of concern. The database provides comprehensive support for post-fire hydrological modeling by allowing users to upload spatial soil burn severity maps, and within moments returns spatial model inputs. Rapid response is critical following natural disasters. After moderate and high severity wildfires, flooding, erosion, and debris flows are a major threat to life, property and municipal water supplies. Mitigation measures must be rapidly implemented if they are to be effective, but they are expensive and cannot be applied everywhere. Fire, runoff, and erosion risks also are highly heterogeneous in space, creating an urgent need for rapid, spatially-explicit assessment. The database has been used to help assess and plan remediation on over a dozen wildfires in the Western US. Future plans include expanding spatial coverage, improving model input data and supporting additional models. Our goal is to facilitate the use of the best possible datasets and models to support the conservation of soil and water.

Spatial photosensitizer fluorescence emission predictive analysis for photodynamic therapy monitoring applied to a skin disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salas-García, Irene; Fanjul-Vélez, Félix; Arce-Diego, José Luis

2012-03-01

The development of Photodynamic Therapy (PDT) predictive models has become a valuable tool for an optimal treatment planning, monitoring and dosimetry adjustment. A few attempts have achieved a quite complete characterization of the complex photochemical and photophysical processes involved, even taking into account superficial fluorescence in the target tissue. The present work is devoted to the application of a predictive PDT model to obtain fluorescence tomography information during PDT when applied to a skin disease. The model takes into account the optical radiation distribution, a non-homogeneous topical photosensitizer distribution, the time dependent photochemical interaction and the photosensitizer fluorescence emission. The results show the spatial evolution of the photosensitizer fluorescence emission and the amount of singlet oxygen produced during PDT. The depth dependent photosensitizer fluorescence emission obtained is essential to estimate the spatial photosensitizer concentration and its degradation due to photobleaching. As a consequence the proposed approach could be used to predict the photosensitizer fluorescence tomographic measurements during PDT. The singlet oxygen prediction could also be employed as a valuable tool to predict the short term treatment outcome.

A method to efficiently apply a biogeochemical model to a landscape.

Treesearch

Robert E. Kennedy; David P. Turner; Warren B. Cohen; Michael Guzy

2006-01-01

Biogeochemical models offer an important means of understanding carbon dynamics, but the computational complexity of many models means that modeling all grid cells on a large landscape is computationally burdensome. Because most biogeochemical models ignore adjacency effects between cells, however, a more efficient approach is possible. Recognizing that spatial...

New insights into the endophenotypic status of cognition in bipolar disorder: genetic modelling study of twins and siblings.

PubMed

Georgiades, Anna; Rijsdijk, Fruhling; Kane, Fergus; Rebollo-Mesa, Irene; Kalidindi, Sridevi; Schulze, Katja K; Stahl, Daniel; Walshe, Muriel; Sahakian, Barbara J; McDonald, Colm; Hall, Mei-Hua; Murray, Robin M; Kravariti, Eugenia

2016-06-01

Twin studies have lacked statistical power to apply advanced genetic modelling techniques to the search for cognitive endophenotypes for bipolar disorder. To quantify the shared genetic variability between bipolar disorder and cognitive measures. Structural equation modelling was performed on cognitive data collected from 331 twins/siblings of varying genetic relatedness, disease status and concordance for bipolar disorder. Using a parsimonious AE model, verbal episodic and spatial working memory showed statistically significant genetic correlations with bipolar disorder (rg = |0.23|-|0.27|), which lost statistical significance after covarying for affective symptoms. Using an ACE model, IQ and visual-spatial learning showed statistically significant genetic correlations with bipolar disorder (rg = |0.51|-|1.00|), which remained significant after covarying for affective symptoms. Verbal episodic and spatial working memory capture a modest fraction of the bipolar diathesis. IQ and visual-spatial learning may tap into genetic substrates of non-affective symptomatology in bipolar disorder. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2016.

Scale effects on the evapotranspiration estimation over a water-controlled Mediterranean ecosystem and its influence on hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carpintero, Elisabet; González-Dugo, María P.; José Polo, María; Hain, Christopher; Nieto, Héctor; Gao, Feng; Andreu, Ana; Kustas, William; Anderson, Martha

2017-04-01

The integration of currently available satellite data into surface energy balance models can provide estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) with spatial and temporal resolutions determined by sensor characteristics. The use of data fusion techniques may increase the temporal resolution of these estimates using multiple satellites, providing a more frequent ET monitoring for hydrological purposes. The objective of this work is to analyze the effects of pixel resolution on the estimation of evapotranspiration using different remote sensing platforms, and to provide continuous monitoring of ET over a water-controlled ecosystem, the Holm oak savanna woodland known as dehesa. It is an agroforestry system with a complex canopy structure characterized by widely-spaced oak trees combined with crops, pasture and shrubs. The study was carried out during two years, 2013 and 2014, combining ET estimates at different spatial and temporal resolutions and applying data fusion techniques for a frequent monitoring of water use at fine spatial resolution. A global and daily ET product at 5 km resolution, developed with the ALEXI model using MODIS day-night temperature difference (Anderson et al., 2015a) was used as a starting point. The associated flux disaggregation scheme, DisALEXI (Norman et al., 2003), was later applied to constrain higher resolution ET from both MODIS and Landsat 7/8 images. The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) provided the meteorological data. Finally, a data fusion technique, the STARFM model (Gao et al., 2006), was applied to fuse MODIS and Landsat ET maps in order to obtain daily ET at 30 m resolution. These estimates were validated and analyzed at two different scales: at local scale over a dehesa experimental site and at watershed scale with a predominant Mediterranean oak savanna landscape, both located in Southern Spain. Local ET estimates from the modeling system were validated with measurements provided by an eddy covariance tower installed in the dehesa (38 ° 12 'N, 4 ° 17' W, 736 m a.s.l.). The results supported the ability of ALEXI/DisALEXI model to accurately estimate turbulent and radiative fluxes over this complex landscape, both at 1 Km and at 30 m spatial resolution. The application of the STARFM model gave significant improvement in capturing the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of ET over the different seasons, compared with traditional interpolation methods using MODIS and Landsat ET data. At basin scale, the physically-based distributed hydrological model WiMMed has been applied to evaluate ET estimates. This model focuses on the spatial interpolation of the meteorological variables and the physical modelling of the daily water balance at the cell and watershed scale, using daily streamflow rates measured at the watershed outlet for final comparison.

Spatial Patterns Study for Sediments from Lake Michigan

EPA Science Inventory

Accurately understanding the distribution of sediment measurements within large water bodies such as Lake Michigan is critical for modeling and understanding of carbon, nitrogen, silica and phosphorus dynamics. Several water quality models have been formulated and applied to the ...

Biomagnetic monitoring as a validation tool for local air quality models: a case study for an urban street canyon.

PubMed

Hofman, Jelle; Samson, Roeland

2014-09-01

Biomagnetic monitoring of tree leaf deposited particles has proven to be a good indicator of the ambient particulate concentration. The objective of this study is to apply this method to validate a local-scale air quality model (ENVI-met), using 96 tree crown sampling locations in a typical urban street canyon. To the best of our knowledge, the application of biomagnetic monitoring for the validation of pollutant dispersion modeling is hereby presented for the first time. Quantitative ENVI-met validation showed significant correlations between modeled and measured results throughout the entire in-leaf period. ENVI-met performed much better at the first half of the street canyon close to the ring road (r=0.58-0.79, RMSE=44-49%), compared to second part (r=0.58-0.64, RMSE=74-102%). The spatial model behavior was evaluated by testing effects of height, azimuthal position, tree position and distance from the main pollution source on the obtained model results and magnetic measurements. Our results demonstrate that biomagnetic monitoring seems to be a valuable method to evaluate the performance of air quality models. Due to the high spatial and temporal resolution of this technique, biomagnetic monitoring can be applied anywhere in the city (where urban green is present) to evaluate model performance at different spatial scales. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of spatial dynamics on a wormhole throat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alias, Anuar; Wan Abdullah, Wan Ahmad Tajuddin

2018-02-01

Previous studies on dynamic wormholes were focused on the dynamics of the wormhole itself, be it either rotating or evolutionary in character and also in various frameworks from classical to braneworld cosmological models. In this work, we modeled a dynamic factor that represents the spatial dynamics in terms of spacetime expansion and contraction surrounding the wormhole itself. Using an RS2-based braneworld cosmological model, we modified the spacetime metric of Wong and subsequently employed the method of Bronnikov, where it is observed that a traversable wormhole is easier to exist in an expanding brane universe, however it is difficult to exist in a contracting brane universe due to stress-energy tensors requirement. This model of spatial dynamic factor affecting the wormhole throat can also be applied on the cyclic or the bounce universe model.

Satellite-derived potential evapotranspiration for distributed hydrologic runoff modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spies, R. R.; Franz, K. J.; Bowman, A.; Hogue, T. S.; Kim, J.

2012-12-01

Distributed models have the ability of incorporating spatially variable data, especially high resolution forcing inputs such as precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration in hydrologic modeling. Use of distributed hydrologic models for operational streamflow prediction has been partially hindered by a lack of readily available, spatially explicit input observations. Potential evapotranspiration (PET), for example, is currently accounted for through PET input grids that are based on monthly climatological values. The goal of this study is to assess the use of satellite-based PET estimates that represent the temporal and spatial variability, as input to the National Weather Service (NWS) Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM). Daily PET grids are generated for six watersheds in the upper Mississippi River basin using a method that applies only MODIS satellite-based observations and the Priestly Taylor formula (MODIS-PET). The use of MODIS-PET grids will be tested against the use of the current climatological PET grids for simulating basin discharge. Gridded surface temperature forcing data are derived by applying the inverse distance weighting spatial prediction method to point-based station observations from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) and Automated Weather Observing System (AWOS). Precipitation data are obtained from the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analysis (CCPA). A-priori gridded parameters for the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA), Snow-17 model, and routing model are initially obtained from the Office of Hydrologic Development and further calibrated using an automated approach. The potential of the MODIS-PET to be used in an operational distributed modeling system will be assessed with the long-term goal of promoting research to operations transfers and advancing the science of hydrologic forecasting.

Optimal Spatial Design of Capacity and Quantity of Rainwater Catchment Systems for Urban Flood Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, C.; Hsu, N.

2013-12-01

This study imports Low-Impact Development (LID) technology of rainwater catchment systems into a Storm-Water runoff Management Model (SWMM) to design the spatial capacity and quantity of rain barrel for urban flood mitigation. This study proposes a simulation-optimization model for effectively searching the optimal design. In simulation method, we design a series of regular spatial distributions of capacity and quantity of rainwater catchment facilities, and thus the reduced flooding circumstances using a variety of design forms could be simulated by SWMM. Moreover, we further calculate the net benefit that is equal to subtract facility cost from decreasing inundation loss and the best solution of simulation method would be the initial searching solution of the optimization model. In optimizing method, first we apply the outcome of simulation method and Back-Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) for developing a water level simulation model of urban drainage system in order to replace SWMM which the operating is based on a graphical user interface and is hard to combine with optimization model and method. After that we embed the BPNN-based simulation model into the developed optimization model which the objective function is minimizing the negative net benefit. Finally, we establish a tabu search-based algorithm to optimize the planning solution. This study applies the developed method in Zhonghe Dist., Taiwan. Results showed that application of tabu search and BPNN-based simulation model into the optimization model not only can find better solutions than simulation method in 12.75%, but also can resolve the limitations of previous studies. Furthermore, the optimized spatial rain barrel design can reduce 72% of inundation loss according to historical flood events.

Ecological and evolutionary consequences of explicit spatial structure in exploiter-victim systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klopfer, Eric David

One class of spatial model which has been widely used in ecology has been termed "pseudo-spatial models" and classically employs various types of aggregation in studying the coexistence of competing parasitoids. Yet, little is known about the relative effects of each of these aggregation behaviors. Thus, in Chapter 1 I chose to examine three types of aggregation and explore their relative strengths in promoting coexistence of two competing parasitoids. A striking shortcoming of spatial models in ecology to date is that there is a relative lack of use of spatial models to investigate problems on the evolutionary as opposed to ecological time scale. Consequently, in Chapter 2 I chose to start with a classic problem of evolutionary time scale--the evolution of virulence and predation rates. Debate about this problem has continued through several decades, yet many instances are not adequately explained by current models. In this study I explored the effect of explicit spatial structure on exploitation rates by comparing a cellular automata (CA) exploiter-victim model which incorporates local dynamics to a metapopulation model which does not include such dynamics. One advantage of CA models is that they are defined by simple rules rather than the often complex equations of other types of spatial models. This is an extremely useful attribute when one wants to convey results of models to an audience with an applied bent that is often uncomfortable with hard-to-understand equations. Thus, in Chapter 3, through the use of CA models I show that there are spatial phenomena which alter the impact of introduced predators and that these phenomena are potentially important in the implementation of biocontrol programs. The relatively recent incorporation of spatial models into the ecological literature has left most ecologists and evolutionary biologists without the ability to understand, let alone employ, spatial models in evolutionary problems. In order to give the next generation of potential ecologists a better understanding of these models, in Chapter 4 I present an interactive tutorial in which students are able to explore the most well studied of these models (the evolution of cooperation in a spatial environment).

Habitat destruction and the extinction debt revisited

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loehle, C.

1996-02-01

A very important analysis of the problem of habitat destruction concluded that such destruction may lead to an extinction debt, which is the irreversible loss of species following a prolonged transient or delay. An error in interpretation of this model led the authors to apply the results to all types of habitat destruction, but in fact the model applies only to an across-the-board decrease in fecundity, not to disturbances. For repeated, spatially random disturbance, a different model applies. For habitat destruction on regional scales (reduction in ecosystem area without disturbance in remnant areas), one must, in contrast, apply species-area relationsmore » based on the distribution of different habitat types (e.g., elevational and rainfall gradients, physiographic and edaphic variability). The error in interpretation of the basic model is presented, followed by clarification of model usage and development of a new model that applies to disturbance events.« less

Spatial and Temporal Soil Moisture Behavior in a Headwater Watershed of the Mantiqueira Range, Minas Gerais, Brazil

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The characterization of temporal and spatial variability of soil moisture is highly relevant in watersheds for understanding the many hydrological and erosion processes, to better model the processes and apply them to conservation planning. The goal of this study was to map soil moisture of the surf...

Scaling local species-habitat relations to the larger landscape with a hierarchical spatial count model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, W.E.; Knutson, M.G.

2007-01-01

Much of what is known about avian species-habitat relations has been derived from studies of birds at local scales. It is entirely unclear whether the relations observed at these scales translate to the larger landscape in a predictable linear fashion. We derived habitat models and mapped predicted abundances for three forest bird species of eastern North America using bird counts, environmental variables, and hierarchical models applied at three spatial scales. Our purpose was to understand habitat associations at multiple spatial scales and create predictive abundance maps for purposes of conservation planning at a landscape scale given the constraint that the variables used in this exercise were derived from local-level studies. Our models indicated a substantial influence of landscape context for all species, many of which were counter to reported associations at finer spatial extents. We found land cover composition provided the greatest contribution to the relative explained variance in counts for all three species; spatial structure was second in importance. No single spatial scale dominated any model, indicating that these species are responding to factors at multiple spatial scales. For purposes of conservation planning, areas of predicted high abundance should be investigated to evaluate the conservation potential of the landscape in their general vicinity. In addition, the models and spatial patterns of abundance among species suggest locations where conservation actions may benefit more than one species. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Applications of spatial statistical network models to stream data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Isaak, Daniel J.; Peterson, Erin E.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Wenger, Seth J.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Sowder, Colin; Steel, E. Ashley; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Jordan, Chris E.; Ruesch, Aaron S.; Som, Nicholas; Monestiez, Pascal

2014-01-01

Streams and rivers host a significant portion of Earth's biodiversity and provide important ecosystem services for human populations. Accurate information regarding the status and trends of stream resources is vital for their effective conservation and management. Most statistical techniques applied to data measured on stream networks were developed for terrestrial applications and are not optimized for streams. A new class of spatial statistical model, based on valid covariance structures for stream networks, can be used with many common types of stream data (e.g., water quality attributes, habitat conditions, biological surveys) through application of appropriate distributions (e.g., Gaussian, binomial, Poisson). The spatial statistical network models account for spatial autocorrelation (i.e., nonindependence) among measurements, which allows their application to databases with clustered measurement locations. Large amounts of stream data exist in many areas where spatial statistical analyses could be used to develop novel insights, improve predictions at unsampled sites, and aid in the design of efficient monitoring strategies at relatively low cost. We review the topic of spatial autocorrelation and its effects on statistical inference, demonstrate the use of spatial statistics with stream datasets relevant to common research and management questions, and discuss additional applications and development potential for spatial statistics on stream networks. Free software for implementing the spatial statistical network models has been developed that enables custom applications with many stream databases.

Challenges to Applying a Metamodel for Groundwater Flow Beyond Underlying Numerical Model Boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reeves, H. W.; Fienen, M. N.; Feinstein, D.

2015-12-01

Metamodels of environmental behavior offer opportunities for decision support, adaptive management, and increased stakeholder engagement through participatory modeling and model exploration. Metamodels are derived from calibrated, computationally demanding, numerical models. They may potentially be applied to non-modeled areas to provide screening or preliminary analysis tools for areas that do not yet have the benefit of more comprehensive study. In this decision-support mode, they may be fulfilling a role often accomplished by application of analytical solutions. The major challenge to transferring a metamodel to a non-modeled area is how to quantify the spatial data in the new area of interest in such a way that it is consistent with the data used to derive the metamodel. Tests based on transferring a metamodel derived from a numerical groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin to other glacial settings across the northern U.S. show that the spatial scale of the numerical model must be appropriately scaled to adequately represent different settings. Careful GIS analysis of the numerical model, metamodel, and new area of interest is required for successful transfer of results.

Spatial variability of excess mortality during prolonged dust events in a high-density city: a time-stratified spatial regression approach.

PubMed

Wong, Man Sing; Ho, Hung Chak; Yang, Lin; Shi, Wenzhong; Yang, Jinxin; Chan, Ta-Chien

2017-07-24

Dust events have long been recognized to be associated with a higher mortality risk. However, no study has investigated how prolonged dust events affect the spatial variability of mortality across districts in a downwind city. In this study, we applied a spatial regression approach to estimate the district-level mortality during two extreme dust events in Hong Kong. We compared spatial and non-spatial models to evaluate the ability of each regression to estimate mortality. We also compared prolonged dust events with non-dust events to determine the influences of community factors on mortality across the city. The density of a built environment (estimated by the sky view factor) had positive association with excess mortality in each district, while socioeconomic deprivation contributed by lower income and lower education induced higher mortality impact in each territory planning unit during a prolonged dust event. Based on the model comparison, spatial error modelling with the 1st order of queen contiguity consistently outperformed other models. The high-risk areas with higher increase in mortality were located in an urban high-density environment with higher socioeconomic deprivation. Our model design shows the ability to predict spatial variability of mortality risk during an extreme weather event that is not able to be estimated based on traditional time-series analysis or ecological studies. Our spatial protocol can be used for public health surveillance, sustainable planning and disaster preparation when relevant data are available.

Optimization techniques for integrating spatial data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herzfeld, U.C.; Merriam, D.F.

1995-01-01

Two optimization techniques ta predict a spatial variable from any number of related spatial variables are presented. The applicability of the two different methods for petroleum-resource assessment is tested in a mature oil province of the Midcontinent (USA). The information on petroleum productivity, usually not directly accessible, is related indirectly to geological, geophysical, petrographical, and other observable data. This paper presents two approaches based on construction of a multivariate spatial model from the available data to determine a relationship for prediction. In the first approach, the variables are combined into a spatial model by an algebraic map-comparison/integration technique. Optimal weights for the map comparison function are determined by the Nelder-Mead downhill simplex algorithm in multidimensions. Geologic knowledge is necessary to provide a first guess of weights to start the automatization, because the solution is not unique. In the second approach, active set optimization for linear prediction of the target under positivity constraints is applied. Here, the procedure seems to select one variable from each data type (structure, isopachous, and petrophysical) eliminating data redundancy. Automating the determination of optimum combinations of different variables by applying optimization techniques is a valuable extension of the algebraic map-comparison/integration approach to analyzing spatial data. Because of the capability of handling multivariate data sets and partial retention of geographical information, the approaches can be useful in mineral-resource exploration. ?? 1995 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Spatial pattern formation facilitates eradication of infectious diseases

PubMed Central

Eisinger, Dirk; Thulke, Hans-Hermann

2008-01-01

Control of animal-born diseases is a major challenge faced by applied ecologists and public health managers. To improve cost-effectiveness, the effort required to control such pathogens needs to be predicted as accurately as possible. In this context, we reviewed the anti-rabies vaccination schemes applied around the world during the past 25 years. We contrasted predictions from classic approaches based on theoretical population ecology (which governs rabies control to date) with a newly developed individual-based model. Our spatially explicit approach allowed for the reproduction of pattern formation emerging from a pathogen's spread through its host population. We suggest that a much lower management effort could eliminate the disease than that currently in operation. This is supported by empirical evidence from historic field data. Adapting control measures to the new prediction would save one-third of resources in future control programmes. The reason for the lower prediction is the spatial structure formed by spreading infections in spatially arranged host populations. It is not the result of technical differences between models. Synthesis and applications. For diseases predominantly transmitted by neighbourhood interaction, our findings suggest that the emergence of spatial structures facilitates eradication. This may have substantial implications for the cost-effectiveness of existing disease management schemes, and suggests that when planning management strategies consideration must be given to methods that reflect the spatial nature of the pathogen–host system. PMID:18784795

Image-based quantification and mathematical modeling of spatial heterogeneity in ESC colonies.

PubMed

Herberg, Maria; Zerjatke, Thomas; de Back, Walter; Glauche, Ingmar; Roeder, Ingo

2015-06-01

Pluripotent embryonic stem cells (ESCs) have the potential to differentiate into cells of all three germ layers. This unique property has been extensively studied on the intracellular, transcriptional level. However, ESCs typically form clusters of cells with distinct size and shape, and establish spatial structures that are vital for the maintenance of pluripotency. Even though it is recognized that the cells' arrangement and local interactions play a role in fate decision processes, the relations between transcriptional and spatial patterns have not yet been studied. We present a systems biology approach which combines live-cell imaging, quantitative image analysis, and multiscale, mathematical modeling of ESC growth. In particular, we develop quantitative measures of the morphology and of the spatial clustering of ESCs with different expression levels and apply them to images of both in vitro and in silico cultures. Using the same measures, we are able to compare model scenarios with different assumptions on cell-cell adhesions and intercellular feedback mechanisms directly with experimental data. Applying our methodology to microscopy images of cultured ESCs, we demonstrate that the emerging colonies are highly variable regarding both morphological and spatial fluorescence patterns. Moreover, we can show that most ESC colonies contain only one cluster of cells with high self-renewing capacity. These cells are preferentially located in the interior of a colony structure. The integrated approach combining image analysis with mathematical modeling allows us to reveal potential transcription factor related cellular and intercellular mechanisms behind the emergence of observed patterns that cannot be derived from images directly. © 2015 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry.

Value-at-Risk forecasts by a spatiotemporal model in Chinese stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Pu; Weng, Yingliang

2016-01-01

This paper generalizes a recently proposed spatial autoregressive model and introduces a spatiotemporal model for forecasting stock returns. We support the view that stock returns are affected not only by the absolute values of factors such as firm size, book-to-market ratio and momentum but also by the relative values of factors like trading volume ranking and market capitalization ranking in each period. This article studies a new method for constructing stocks' reference groups; the method is called quartile method. Applying the method empirically to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, we compare the daily volatility forecasting performance and the out-of-sample forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimated by different models. The empirical results show that the spatiotemporal model performs surprisingly well in terms of capturing spatial dependences among individual stocks, and it produces more accurate VaR forecasts than the other three models introduced in the previous literature. Moreover, the findings indicate that both allowing for serial correlation in the disturbances and using time-varying spatial weight matrices can greatly improve the predictive accuracy of a spatial autoregressive model.

Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael; Chang, Zheng

2017-01-01

Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchicalmore » clustering approach.« less

Modeling spatial competition for light in plant populations with the porous medium equation.

PubMed

Beyer, Robert; Etard, Octave; Cournède, Paul-Henry; Laurent-Gengoux, Pascal

2015-02-01

We consider a plant's local leaf area index as a spatially continuous variable, subject to particular reaction-diffusion dynamics of allocation, senescence and spatial propagation. The latter notably incorporates the plant's tendency to form new leaves in bright rather than shaded locations. Applying a generalized Beer-Lambert law allows to link existing foliage to production dynamics. The approach allows for inter-individual variability and competition for light while maintaining robustness-a key weakness of comparable existing models. The analysis of the single plant case leads to a significant simplification of the system's key equation when transforming it into the well studied porous medium equation. Confronting the theoretical model to experimental data of sugar beet populations, differing in configuration density, demonstrates its accuracy.

Hydroclimatology of Dual-Peak Annual Cholera Incidence: Insights from a Spatially Explicit Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2012-12-01

Cholera incidence in some regions of the Indian subcontinent may exhibit two annual peaks although the main environmental drivers that have been linked to the disease (e.g. sea surface temperature, zooplankton abundance, river discharge) peak once per year during the summer. An empirical hydroclimatological explanation relating cholera transmission to river flows and to the disease spatial spreading has been recently proposed. We specifically support and substantiate mechanistically such hypothesis by means of a spatially explicit model of cholera transmission. Our framework directly accounts for the role of the river network in transporting and redistributing cholera bacteria among human communities as well as for spatial and temporal annual fluctuations of precipitation and river flows. To single out the single out the hydroclimatologic controls on the prevalence patterns in a non-specific geographical context, we first apply the model to Optimal Channel Networks as a general model of hydrological networks. Moreover, we impose a uniform distribution of population. The model is forced by seasonal environmental drivers, namely precipitation, temperature and chlorophyll concentration in the coastal environment, a proxy for Vibrio cholerae concentration. Our results show that these drivers may suffice to generate dual-peak cholera prevalence patterns for proper combinations of timescales involved in pathogen transport, hydrologic variability and disease unfolding. The model explains the possible occurrence of spatial patterns of cholera incidence characterized by a spring peak confined to coastal areas and a fall peak involving inland regions. We then proceed applying the model to the specific settings of Bay of Bengal accounting for the actual river networks (derived from digital terrain map manipulations), the proper distribution of population (estimated from downscaling of census data based on remotely sensed features) and precipitation patterns. Overall our modeling framework suggests insights on how environmental drivers concert the generation of complex spatiotemporal infections and proposes an explanation for the different cholera patterns (dual or single annual peaks) exhibited by regions that share similar hydroclimatological forcings.

`spup' - An R Package for Analysis of Spatial Uncertainty Propagation and Application to Trace Gas Emission Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawicka, K.; Breuer, L.; Houska, T.; Santabarbara Ruiz, I.; Heuvelink, G. B. M.

2016-12-01

Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Advances in uncertainty propagation analysis and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability, including case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the `spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Here we will demonstrate that the 'spup' package is an effective and easy-to-use tool to be applied even in a very complex study case, and that it can be used in multi-disciplinary research and model-based decision support. As an example, we use the ecological LandscapeDNDC model to analyse propagation of uncertainties associated with spatial variability of the model driving forces such as rainfall, nitrogen deposition and fertilizer inputs. The uncertainty propagation is analysed for the prediction of emissions of N2O and CO2 for a German low mountainous, agriculturally developed catchment. The study tests the effect of spatial correlations on spatially aggregated model outputs, and could serve as an advice for developing best management practices and model improvement strategies.

The spatial spread of schistosomiasis: A multidimensional network model applied to Saint-Louis region, Senegal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciddio, Manuela; Mari, Lorenzo; Sokolow, Susanne H.; De Leo, Giulio A.; Casagrandi, Renato; Gatto, Marino

2017-10-01

Schistosomiasis is a parasitic, water-related disease that is prevalent in tropical and subtropical areas of the world, causing severe and chronic consequences especially among children. Here we study the spatial spread of this disease within a network of connected villages in the endemic region of the Lower Basin of the Senegal River, in Senegal. The analysis is performed by means of a spatially explicit metapopulation model that couples local-scale eco-epidemiological dynamics with spatial mechanisms related to human mobility (estimated from anonymized mobile phone records), snail dispersal and hydrological transport of schistosome larvae along the main water bodies of the region. Results show that the model produces epidemiological patterns consistent with field observations, and point out the key role of spatial connectivity on the spread of the disease. These findings underline the importance of considering different transport pathways in order to elaborate disease control strategies that can be effective within a network of connected populations.

Spatial-temporal clustering of tornadoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malamud, Bruce D.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Brooks, Harold E.

2016-12-01

The standard measure of the intensity of a tornado is the Enhanced Fujita scale, which is based qualitatively on the damage caused by a tornado. An alternative measure of tornado intensity is the tornado path length, L. Here we examine the spatial-temporal clustering of severe tornadoes, which we define as having path lengths L ≥ 10 km. Of particular concern are tornado outbreaks, when a large number of severe tornadoes occur in a day in a restricted region. We apply a spatial-temporal clustering analysis developed for earthquakes. We take all pairs of severe tornadoes in observed and modelled outbreaks, and for each pair plot the spatial lag (distance between touchdown points) against the temporal lag (time between touchdown points). We apply our spatial-temporal lag methodology to the intense tornado outbreaks in the central United States on 26 and 27 April 2011, which resulted in over 300 fatalities and produced 109 severe (L ≥ 10 km) tornadoes. The patterns of spatial-temporal lag correlations that we obtain for the 2 days are strikingly different. On 26 April 2011, there were 45 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is dominated by a complex sequence of linear features. We associate the linear patterns with the tornadoes generated in either a single cell thunderstorm or a closely spaced cluster of single cell thunderstorms moving at a near-constant velocity. Our study of a derecho tornado outbreak of six severe tornadoes on 4 April 2011 along with modelled outbreak scenarios confirms this association. On 27 April 2011, there were 64 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is predominantly random with virtually no embedded linear patterns. We associate this pattern with a large number of interacting supercell thunderstorms generating tornadoes randomly in space and time. In order to better understand these associations, we also applied our approach to the Great Plains tornado outbreak of 3 May 1999. Careful studies by others have associated individual tornadoes with specified supercell thunderstorms. Our analysis of the 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak directly associated linear features in the largely random spatial-temporal analysis with several supercell thunderstorms, which we then confirmed using model scenarios of synthetic tornado outbreaks. We suggest that it may be possible to develop a semi-automated modelling of tornado touchdowns to match the type of observations made on the 3 May 1999 outbreak.

Spatial-Temporal Clustering of Tornadoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malamud, Bruce D.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Brooks, Harold E.

2017-04-01

The standard measure of the intensity of a tornado is the Enhanced Fujita scale, which is based qualitatively on the damage caused by a tornado. An alternative measure of tornado intensity is the tornado path length, L. Here we examine the spatial-temporal clustering of severe tornadoes, which we define as having path lengths L ≥ 10 km. Of particular concern are tornado outbreaks, when a large number of severe tornadoes occur in a day in a restricted region. We apply a spatial-temporal clustering analysis developed for earthquakes. We take all pairs of severe tornadoes in observed and modelled outbreaks, and for each pair plot the spatial lag (distance between touchdown points) against the temporal lag (time between touchdown points). We apply our spatial-temporal lag methodology to the intense tornado outbreaks in the central United States on 26 and 27 April 2011, which resulted in over 300 fatalities and produced 109 severe (L ≥ 10 km) tornadoes. The patterns of spatial-temporal lag correlations that we obtain for the 2 days are strikingly different. On 26 April 2011, there were 45 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is dominated by a complex sequence of linear features. We associate the linear patterns with the tornadoes generated in either a single cell thunderstorm or a closely spaced cluster of single cell thunderstorms moving at a near-constant velocity. Our study of a derecho tornado outbreak of six severe tornadoes on 4 April 2011 along with modelled outbreak scenarios confirms this association. On 27 April 2011, there were 64 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is predominantly random with virtually no embedded linear patterns. We associate this pattern with a large number of interacting supercell thunderstorms generating tornadoes randomly in space and time. In order to better understand these associations, we also applied our approach to the Great Plains tornado outbreak of 3 May 1999. Careful studies by others have associated individual tornadoes with specified supercell thunderstorms. Our analysis of the 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak directly associated linear features in the largely random spatial-temporal analysis with several supercell thunderstorms, which we then confirmed using model scenarios of synthetic tornado outbreaks. We suggest that it may be possible to develop a semi-automated modelling of tornado touchdowns to match the type of observations made on the 3 May 1999 outbreak.

Complex Environmental Data Modelling Using Adaptive General Regression Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanevski, Mikhail

2015-04-01

The research deals with an adaptation and application of Adaptive General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) to high dimensional environmental data. GRNN [1,2,3] are efficient modelling tools both for spatial and temporal data and are based on nonparametric kernel methods closely related to classical Nadaraya-Watson estimator. Adaptive GRNN, using anisotropic kernels, can be also applied for features selection tasks when working with high dimensional data [1,3]. In the present research Adaptive GRNN are used to study geospatial data predictability and relevant feature selection using both simulated and real data case studies. The original raw data were either three dimensional monthly precipitation data or monthly wind speeds embedded into 13 dimensional space constructed by geographical coordinates and geo-features calculated from digital elevation model. GRNN were applied in two different ways: 1) adaptive GRNN with the resulting list of features ordered according to their relevancy; and 2) adaptive GRNN applied to evaluate all possible models N [in case of wind fields N=(2^13 -1)=8191] and rank them according to the cross-validation error. In both cases training were carried out applying leave-one-out procedure. An important result of the study is that the set of the most relevant features depends on the month (strong seasonal effect) and year. The predictabilities of precipitation and wind field patterns, estimated using the cross-validation and testing errors of raw and shuffled data, were studied in detail. The results of both approaches were qualitatively and quantitatively compared. In conclusion, Adaptive GRNN with their ability to select features and efficient modelling of complex high dimensional data can be widely used in automatic/on-line mapping and as an integrated part of environmental decision support systems. 1. Kanevski M., Pozdnoukhov A., Timonin V. Machine Learning for Spatial Environmental Data. Theory, applications and software. EPFL Press. With a CD: data, software, guides. (2009). 2. Kanevski M. Spatial Predictions of Soil Contamination Using General Regression Neural Networks. Systems Research and Information Systems, Volume 8, number 4, 1999. 3. Robert S., Foresti L., Kanevski M. Spatial prediction of monthly wind speeds in complex terrain with adaptive general regression neural networks. International Journal of Climatology, 33 pp. 1793-1804, 2013.

Exploring the Mechanisms of Ecological Land Change Based on the Spatial Autoregressive Model: A Case Study of the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone, China

PubMed Central

Xie, Hualin; Liu, Zhifei; Wang, Peng; Liu, Guiying; Lu, Fucai

2013-01-01

Ecological land is one of the key resources and conditions for the survival of humans because it can provide ecosystem services and is particularly important to public health and safety. It is extremely valuable for effective ecological management to explore the evolution mechanisms of ecological land. Based on spatial statistical analyses, we explored the spatial disparities and primary potential drivers of ecological land change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China. The results demonstrated that the global Moran’s I value is 0.1646 during the 1990 to 2005 time period and indicated significant positive spatial correlation (p < 0.05). The results also imply that the clustering trend of ecological land changes weakened in the study area. Some potential driving forces were identified by applying the spatial autoregressive model in this study. The results demonstrated that the higher economic development level and industrialization rate were the main drivers for the faster change of ecological land in the study area. This study also tested the superiority of the spatial autoregressive model to study the mechanisms of ecological land change by comparing it with the traditional linear regressive model. PMID:24384778

A spatial age-structured model for describing sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Jason M.; Wilberg, Michael J.; Adams, Jean V.; Jones, Michael L.

2013-01-01

The control of invasive sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) presents large scale management challenges in the Laurentian Great Lakes. No modeling approach has been developed that describes spatial dynamics of lamprey populations. We developed and validated a spatial and age-structured model and applied it to a sea lamprey population in a large river in the Great Lakes basin. We considered 75 discrete spatial areas, included a stock-recruitment function, spatial recruitment patterns, natural mortality, chemical treatment mortality, and larval metamorphosis. Recruitment was variable, and an upstream shift in recruitment location was observed over time. From 1993–2011 recruitment, larval abundance, and the abundance of metamorphosing individuals decreased by 80, 84, and 86%, respectively. The model successfully identified areas of high larval abundance and showed that areas of low larval density contribute significantly to the population. Estimated treatment mortality was less than expected but had a large population-level impact. The results and general approach of this work have applications for sea lamprey control throughout the Great Lakes and for the restoration and conservation of native lamprey species globally.

Efficient Lane Boundary Detection with Spatial-Temporal Knowledge Filtering

PubMed Central

Nan, Zhixiong; Wei, Ping; Xu, Linhai; Zheng, Nanning

2016-01-01

Lane boundary detection technology has progressed rapidly over the past few decades. However, many challenges that often lead to lane detection unavailability remain to be solved. In this paper, we propose a spatial-temporal knowledge filtering model to detect lane boundaries in videos. To address the challenges of structure variation, large noise and complex illumination, this model incorporates prior spatial-temporal knowledge with lane appearance features to jointly identify lane boundaries. The model first extracts line segments in video frames. Two novel filters—the Crossing Point Filter (CPF) and the Structure Triangle Filter (STF)—are proposed to filter out the noisy line segments. The two filters introduce spatial structure constraints and temporal location constraints into lane detection, which represent the spatial-temporal knowledge about lanes. A straight line or curve model determined by a state machine is used to fit the line segments to finally output the lane boundaries. We collected a challenging realistic traffic scene dataset. The experimental results on this dataset and other standard dataset demonstrate the strength of our method. The proposed method has been successfully applied to our autonomous experimental vehicle. PMID:27529248

SimAlba: A Spatial Microsimulation Approach to the Analysis of Health Inequalities

PubMed Central

Campbell, Malcolm; Ballas, Dimitris

2016-01-01

This paper presents applied geographical research based on a spatial microsimulation model, SimAlba, aimed at estimating geographically sensitive health variables in Scotland. SimAlba has been developed in order to answer a variety of “what-if” policy questions pertaining to health policy in Scotland. Using the SimAlba model, it is possible to simulate the distributions of previously unknown variables at the small area level such as smoking, alcohol consumption, mental well-being, and obesity. The SimAlba microdataset has been created by combining Scottish Health Survey and Census data using a deterministic reweighting spatial microsimulation algorithm developed for this purpose. The paper presents SimAlba outputs for Scotland’s largest city, Glasgow, and examines the spatial distribution of the simulated variables for small geographical areas in Glasgow as well as the effects on individuals of different policy scenario outcomes. In simulating previously unknown spatial data, a wealth of new perspectives can be examined and explored. This paper explores a small set of those potential avenues of research and shows the power of spatial microsimulation modeling in an urban context. PMID:27818989

Spatial fluctuations in transient creep deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurson, Lasse; Rosti, Jari; Koivisto, Juha; Miksic, Amandine; Alava, Mikko J.

2011-07-01

We study the spatial fluctuations of transient creep deformation of materials as a function of time, both by digital image correlation (DIC) measurements of paper samples and by numerical simulations of a crystal plasticity or discrete dislocation dynamics model. This model has a jamming or yielding phase transition, around which power law or Andrade creep is found. During primary creep, the relative strength of the strain rate fluctuations increases with time in both cases—the spatially averaged creep rate obeys the Andrade law epsilont ~ t - 0.7, while the time dependence of the spatial fluctuations of the local creep rates is given by Δepsilont ~ t - 0.5. A similar scaling for the fluctuations is found in the logarithmic creep regime that is typically observed for lower applied stresses. We review briefly some classical theories of Andrade creep from the point of view of such spatial fluctuations. We consider these phenomenological, time-dependent creep laws in terms of a description based on a non-equilibrium phase transition separating evolving and frozen states of the system when the externally applied load is varied. Such an interpretation is discussed further by the data collapse of the local deformations in the spirit of absorbing state/depinning phase transitions, as well as deformation-deformation correlations and the width of the cumulative strain distributions. The results are also compared with the order parameter fluctuations observed close to the depinning transition of the 2d linear interface model or the quenched Edwards-Wilkinson equation.

Predicting crash frequency for multi-vehicle collision types using multivariate Poisson-lognormal spatial model: A comparative analysis.

PubMed

Hosseinpour, Mehdi; Sahebi, Sina; Zamzuri, Zamira Hasanah; Yahaya, Ahmad Shukri; Ismail, Noriszura

2018-06-01

According to crash configuration and pre-crash conditions, traffic crashes are classified into different collision types. Based on the literature, multi-vehicle crashes, such as head-on, rear-end, and angle crashes, are more frequent than single-vehicle crashes, and most often result in serious consequences. From a methodological point of view, the majority of prior studies focused on multivehicle collisions have employed univariate count models to estimate crash counts separately by collision type. However, univariate models fail to account for correlations which may exist between different collision types. Among others, multivariate Poisson lognormal (MVPLN) model with spatial correlation is a promising multivariate specification because it not only allows for unobserved heterogeneity (extra-Poisson variation) and dependencies between collision types, but also spatial correlation between adjacent sites. However, the MVPLN spatial model has rarely been applied in previous research for simultaneously modelling crash counts by collision type. Therefore, this study aims at utilizing a MVPLN spatial model to estimate crash counts for four different multi-vehicle collision types, including head-on, rear-end, angle, and sideswipe collisions. To investigate the performance of the MVPLN spatial model, a two-stage model and a univariate Poisson lognormal model (UNPLN) spatial model were also developed in this study. Detailed information on roadway characteristics, traffic volume, and crash history were collected on 407 homogeneous segments from Malaysian federal roads. The results indicate that the MVPLN spatial model outperforms the other comparing models in terms of goodness-of-fit measures. The results also show that the inclusion of spatial heterogeneity in the multivariate model significantly improves the model fit, as indicated by the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC). The correlation between crash types is high and positive, implying that the occurrence of a specific collision type is highly associated with the occurrence of other crash types on the same road segment. These results support the utilization of the MVPLN spatial model when predicting crash counts by collision manner. In terms of contributing factors, the results show that distinct crash types are attributed to different subsets of explanatory variables. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring the Specifications of Spatial Adjacencies and Weights in Bayesian Spatial Modeling with Intrinsic Conditional Autoregressive Priors in a Small-area Study of Fall Injuries

PubMed Central

Law, Jane

2016-01-01

Intrinsic conditional autoregressive modeling in a Bayeisan hierarchical framework has been increasingly applied in small-area ecological studies. This study explores the specifications of spatial structure in this Bayesian framework in two aspects: adjacency, i.e., the set of neighbor(s) for each area; and (spatial) weight for each pair of neighbors. Our analysis was based on a small-area study of falling injuries among people age 65 and older in Ontario, Canada, that was aimed to estimate risks and identify risk factors of such falls. In the case study, we observed incorrect adjacencies information caused by deficiencies in the digital map itself. Further, when equal weights was replaced by weights based on a variable of expected count, the range of estimated risks increased, the number of areas with probability of estimated risk greater than one at different probability thresholds increased, and model fit improved. More importantly, significance of a risk factor diminished. Further research to thoroughly investigate different methods of variable weights; quantify the influence of specifications of spatial weights; and develop strategies for better defining spatial structure of a map in small-area analysis in Bayesian hierarchical spatial modeling is recommended. PMID:29546147

Do marginalized neighbourhoods have less healthy retail food environments? An analysis using Bayesian spatial latent factor and hurdle models.

PubMed

Luan, Hui; Minaker, Leia M; Law, Jane

2016-08-22

Findings of whether marginalized neighbourhoods have less healthy retail food environments (RFE) are mixed across countries, in part because inconsistent approaches have been used to characterize RFE 'healthfulness' and marginalization, and researchers have used non-spatial statistical methods to respond to this ultimately spatial issue. This study uses in-store features to categorize healthy and less healthy food outlets. Bayesian spatial hierarchical models are applied to explore the association between marginalization dimensions and RFE healthfulness (i.e., relative healthy food access that modelled via a probability distribution) at various geographical scales. Marginalization dimensions are derived from a spatial latent factor model. Zero-inflation occurring at the walkable-distance scale is accounted for with a spatial hurdle model. Neighbourhoods with higher residential instability, material deprivation, and population density are more likely to have access to healthy food outlets within a walkable distance from a binary 'have' or 'not have' access perspective. At the walkable distance scale however, materially deprived neighbourhoods are found to have less healthy RFE (lower relative healthy food access). Food intervention programs should be developed for striking the balance between healthy and less healthy food access in the study region as well as improving opportunities for residents to buy and consume foods consistent with dietary recommendations.

A statistical model of extreme storm rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, James A.; Karr, Alan F.

1990-02-01

A model of storm rainfall is developed for the central Appalachian region of the United States. The model represents the temporal occurrence of major storms and, for a given storm, the spatial distribution of storm rainfall. Spatial inhomogeneities of storm rainfall and temporal inhomogeneities of the storm occurrence process are explicitly represented. The model is used for estimating recurrence intervals of extreme storms. The parameter estimation procedure developed for the model is based on the substitution principle (method of moments) and requires data from a network of rain gages. The model is applied to a 5000 mi2 (12,950 km2) region in the Valley and Ridge Province of Virginia and West Virginia.

Optimizing landslide susceptibility zonation: Effects of DEM spatial resolution and slope unit delineation on logistic regression models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlögel, R.; Marchesini, I.; Alvioli, M.; Reichenbach, P.; Rossi, M.; Malet, J.-P.

2018-01-01

We perform landslide susceptibility zonation with slope units using three digital elevation models (DEMs) of varying spatial resolution of the Ubaye Valley (South French Alps). In so doing, we applied a recently developed algorithm automating slope unit delineation, given a number of parameters, in order to optimize simultaneously the partitioning of the terrain and the performance of a logistic regression susceptibility model. The method allowed us to obtain optimal slope units for each available DEM spatial resolution. For each resolution, we studied the susceptibility model performance by analyzing in detail the relevance of the conditioning variables. The analysis is based on landslide morphology data, considering either the whole landslide or only the source area outline as inputs. The procedure allowed us to select the most useful information, in terms of DEM spatial resolution, thematic variables and landslide inventory, in order to obtain the most reliable slope unit-based landslide susceptibility assessment.

The quantitative modelling of human spatial habitability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wise, James A.

1988-01-01

A theoretical model for evaluating human spatial habitability (HuSH) in the proposed U.S. Space Station is developed. Optimizing the fitness of the space station environment for human occupancy will help reduce environmental stress due to long-term isolation and confinement in its small habitable volume. The development of tools that operationalize the behavioral bases of spatial volume for visual kinesthetic, and social logic considerations is suggested. This report further calls for systematic scientific investigations of how much real and how much perceived volume people need in order to function normally and with minimal stress in space-based settings. The theoretical model presented in this report can be applied to any size or shape interior, at any scale of consideration, for the Space Station as a whole to an individual enclosure or work station. Using as a point of departure the Isovist model developed by Dr. Michael Benedikt of the U. of Texas, the report suggests that spatial habitability can become as amenable to careful assessment as engineering and life support concerns.

Predicting bias in perceived position using attention field models.

PubMed

Klein, Barrie P; Paffen, Chris L E; Pas, Susan F Te; Dumoulin, Serge O

2016-05-01

Attention is the mechanism through which we select relevant information from our visual environment. We have recently demonstrated that attention attracts receptive fields across the visual hierarchy (Klein, Harvey, & Dumoulin, 2014). We captured this receptive field attraction using an attention field model. Here, we apply this model to human perception: We predict that receptive field attraction results in a bias in perceived position, which depends on the size of the underlying receptive fields. We instructed participants to compare the relative position of Gabor stimuli, while we manipulated the focus of attention using exogenous cueing. We varied the eccentric position and spatial frequency of the Gabor stimuli to vary underlying receptive field size. The positional biases as a function of eccentricity matched the predictions by an attention field model, whereas the bias as a function of spatial frequency did not. As spatial frequency and eccentricity are encoded differently across the visual hierarchy, we speculate that they might interact differently with the attention field that is spatially defined.

Pattern-Based Inverse Modeling for Characterization of Subsurface Flow Models with Complex Geologic Heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golmohammadi, A.; Jafarpour, B.; M Khaninezhad, M. R.

2017-12-01

Calibration of heterogeneous subsurface flow models leads to ill-posed nonlinear inverse problems, where too many unknown parameters are estimated from limited response measurements. When the underlying parameters form complex (non-Gaussian) structured spatial connectivity patterns, classical variogram-based geostatistical techniques cannot describe the underlying connectivity patterns. Modern pattern-based geostatistical methods that incorporate higher-order spatial statistics are more suitable for describing such complex spatial patterns. Moreover, when the underlying unknown parameters are discrete (geologic facies distribution), conventional model calibration techniques that are designed for continuous parameters cannot be applied directly. In this paper, we introduce a novel pattern-based model calibration method to reconstruct discrete and spatially complex facies distributions from dynamic flow response data. To reproduce complex connectivity patterns during model calibration, we impose a feasibility constraint to ensure that the solution follows the expected higher-order spatial statistics. For model calibration, we adopt a regularized least-squares formulation, involving data mismatch, pattern connectivity, and feasibility constraint terms. Using an alternating directions optimization algorithm, the regularized objective function is divided into a continuous model calibration problem, followed by mapping the solution onto the feasible set. The feasibility constraint to honor the expected spatial statistics is implemented using a supervised machine learning algorithm. The two steps of the model calibration formulation are repeated until the convergence criterion is met. Several numerical examples are used to evaluate the performance of the developed method.

Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces of land change, and is transferable to other case study areas with different land use change processes and consequences. The framework starts with the involvement of stakeholders where driving forces of land use change are being studied by performing interviews and group discussions. In order to bridge the gap between qualitative methods and conventional geospatial techniques, we applied cognitive mapping and the Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact and Response framework (DPSIR) to develop a conceptual land use change model. This was later transformed into a spatially explicit land use change model based on remote sensing data, GIS and cellular automata spatial allocation. The methodology was developed and applied in a study area in the eastern Italian Alps, where the uncertainties regarding future urban expansion are high. Later, we transferred it to a study area in the Romanian Carpathians, where the identified prevailing process of land use change is deforestation. Both areas are subject to hydro-meteorological risk, posing a need for the analysis of the possible future spatial pattern and locations of land use change. The resulting scenarios enabled us, to point at identifying hot-spots of land use change, serving as a possible input for a risk assessment.

Modelling Geomechanical Heterogeneity of Rock Masses Using Direct and Indirect Geostatistical Conditional Simulation Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eivazy, Hesameddin; Esmaieli, Kamran; Jean, Raynald

2017-12-01

An accurate characterization and modelling of rock mass geomechanical heterogeneity can lead to more efficient mine planning and design. Using deterministic approaches and random field methods for modelling rock mass heterogeneity is known to be limited in simulating the spatial variation and spatial pattern of the geomechanical properties. Although the applications of geostatistical techniques have demonstrated improvements in modelling the heterogeneity of geomechanical properties, geostatistical estimation methods such as Kriging result in estimates of geomechanical variables that are not fully representative of field observations. This paper reports on the development of 3D models for spatial variability of rock mass geomechanical properties using geostatistical conditional simulation method based on sequential Gaussian simulation. A methodology to simulate the heterogeneity of rock mass quality based on the rock mass rating is proposed and applied to a large open-pit mine in Canada. Using geomechanical core logging data collected from the mine site, a direct and an indirect approach were used to model the spatial variability of rock mass quality. The results of the two modelling approaches were validated against collected field data. The study aims to quantify the risks of pit slope failure and provides a measure of uncertainties in spatial variability of rock mass properties in different areas of the pit.

Spatialized audio improves call sign recognition during multi-aircraft control.

PubMed

Kim, Sungbin; Miller, Michael E; Rusnock, Christina F; Elshaw, John J

2018-07-01

We investigated the impact of a spatialized audio display on response time, workload, and accuracy while monitoring auditory information for relevance. The human ability to differentiate sound direction implies that spatial audio may be used to encode information. Therefore, it is hypothesized that spatial audio cues can be applied to aid differentiation of critical versus noncritical verbal auditory information. We used a human performance model and a laboratory study involving 24 participants to examine the effect of applying a notional, automated parser to present audio in a particular ear depending on information relevance. Operator workload and performance were assessed while subjects listened for and responded to relevant audio cues associated with critical information among additional noncritical information. Encoding relevance through spatial location in a spatial audio display system--as opposed to monophonic, binaural presentation--significantly reduced response time and workload, particularly for noncritical information. Future auditory displays employing spatial cues to indicate relevance have the potential to reduce workload and improve operator performance in similar task domains. Furthermore, these displays have the potential to reduce the dependence of workload and performance on the number of audio cues. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Change in spatial coherence of light on refraction and on reflection.

PubMed

Lahiri, Mayukh; Wolf, Emil

2013-06-01

A theory of refraction and reflection of partially coherent electromagnetic beams has been recently developed. In this paper, we apply it to study the change in spatial coherence caused by refraction and by reflection more fully. By considering a Gaussian Schell-model beam, we show that the change is, in general, dependent on the angle of incidence.

Computationally efficient statistical differential equation modeling using homogenization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, Mevin B.; Garlick, Martha J.; Powell, James A.

2013-01-01

Statistical models using partial differential equations (PDEs) to describe dynamically evolving natural systems are appearing in the scientific literature with some regularity in recent years. Often such studies seek to characterize the dynamics of temporal or spatio-temporal phenomena such as invasive species, consumer-resource interactions, community evolution, and resource selection. Specifically, in the spatial setting, data are often available at varying spatial and temporal scales. Additionally, the necessary numerical integration of a PDE may be computationally infeasible over the spatial support of interest. We present an approach to impose computationally advantageous changes of support in statistical implementations of PDE models and demonstrate its utility through simulation using a form of PDE known as “ecological diffusion.” We also apply a statistical ecological diffusion model to a data set involving the spread of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) in Idaho, USA.

The worth of data to reduce predictive uncertainty of an integrated catchment model by multi-constraint calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, J.; Jensen, K. H.; Stisen, S.

2017-12-01

Hydrological models that integrate numerical process descriptions across compartments of the water cycle are typically required to undergo thorough model calibration in order to estimate suitable effective model parameters. In this study, we apply a spatially distributed hydrological model code which couples the saturated zone with the unsaturated zone and the energy portioning at the land surface. We conduct a comprehensive multi-constraint model calibration against nine independent observational datasets which reflect both the temporal and the spatial behavior of hydrological response of a 1000km2 large catchment in Denmark. The datasets are obtained from satellite remote sensing and in-situ measurements and cover five keystone hydrological variables: discharge, evapotranspiration, groundwater head, soil moisture and land surface temperature. Results indicate that a balanced optimization can be achieved where errors on objective functions for all nine observational datasets can be reduced simultaneously. The applied calibration framework was tailored with focus on improving the spatial pattern performance; however results suggest that the optimization is still more prone to improve the temporal dimension of model performance. This study features a post-calibration linear uncertainty analysis. This allows quantifying parameter identifiability which is the worth of a specific observational dataset to infer values to model parameters through calibration. Furthermore the ability of an observation to reduce predictive uncertainty is assessed as well. Such findings determine concrete implications on the design of model calibration frameworks and, in more general terms, the acquisition of data in hydrological observatories.

The spatial pattern of suicide in the US in relation to deprivation, fragmentation and rurality.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2011-01-01

Analysis of geographical patterns of suicide and psychiatric morbidity has demonstrated the impact of latent ecological variables (such as deprivation, rurality). Such latent variables may be derived by conventional multivariate techniques from sets of observed indices (for example, by principal components), by composite variable methods or by methods which explicitly consider the spatial framework of areas and, in particular, the spatial clustering of latent risks and outcomes. This article considers a latent random variable approach to explaining geographical contrasts in suicide in the US; and it develops a spatial structural equation model incorporating deprivation, social fragmentation and rurality. The approach allows for such latent spatial constructs to be correlated both within and between areas. Potential effects of area ethnic mix are also included. The model is applied to male and female suicide deaths over 2002–06 in 3142 US counties.

Statistical and Economic Techniques for Site-specific Nematode Management.

PubMed

Liu, Zheng; Griffin, Terry; Kirkpatrick, Terrence L

2014-03-01

Recent advances in precision agriculture technologies and spatial statistics allow realistic, site-specific estimation of nematode damage to field crops and provide a platform for the site-specific delivery of nematicides within individual fields. This paper reviews the spatial statistical techniques that model correlations among neighboring observations and develop a spatial economic analysis to determine the potential of site-specific nematicide application. The spatial econometric methodology applied in the context of site-specific crop yield response contributes to closing the gap between data analysis and realistic site-specific nematicide recommendations and helps to provide a practical method of site-specifically controlling nematodes.

A Bayesian kriging approach for blending satellite and ground precipitation observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, Andrew P.; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Kleiber, William; Funk, Christopher C.

2015-01-01

Drought and flood management practices require accurate estimates of precipitation. Gauge observations, however, are often sparse in regions with complicated terrain, clustered in valleys, and of poor quality. Consequently, the spatial extent of wet events is poorly represented. Satellite-derived precipitation data are an attractive alternative, though they tend to underestimate the magnitude of wet events due to their dependency on retrieval algorithms and the indirect relationship between satellite infrared observations and precipitation intensities. Here we offer a Bayesian kriging approach for blending precipitation gauge data and the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation satellite-derived precipitation estimates for Central America, Colombia, and Venezuela. First, the gauge observations are modeled as a linear function of satellite-derived estimates and any number of other variables—for this research we include elevation. Prior distributions are defined for all model parameters and the posterior distributions are obtained simultaneously via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The posterior distributions of these parameters are required for spatial estimation, and thus are obtained prior to implementing the spatial kriging model. This functional framework is applied to model parameters obtained by sampling from the posterior distributions, and the residuals of the linear model are subject to a spatial kriging model. Consequently, the posterior distributions and uncertainties of the blended precipitation estimates are obtained. We demonstrate this method by applying it to pentadal and monthly total precipitation fields during 2009. The model's performance and its inherent ability to capture wet events are investigated. We show that this blending method significantly improves upon the satellite-derived estimates and is also competitive in its ability to represent wet events. This procedure also provides a means to estimate a full conditional distribution of the “true” observed precipitation value at each grid cell.

Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for alcohol availability, drug "hot spots" and violent crime.

PubMed

Zhu, Li; Gorman, Dennis M; Horel, Scott

2006-12-07

Ecologic studies have shown a relationship between alcohol outlet densities, illicit drug use and violence. The present study examined this relationship in the City of Houston, Texas, using a sample of 439 census tracts. Neighborhood sociostructural covariates, alcohol outlet density, drug crime density and violent crime data were collected for the year 2000, and analyzed using hierarchical Bayesian models. Model selection was accomplished by applying the Deviance Information Criterion. The counts of violent crime in each census tract were modelled as having a conditional Poisson distribution. Four neighbourhood explanatory variables were identified using principal component analysis. The best fitted model was selected as the one considering both unstructured and spatial dependence random effects. The results showed that drug-law violation explained a greater amount of variance in violent crime rates than alcohol outlet densities. The relative risk for drug-law violation was 2.49 and that for alcohol outlet density was 1.16. Of the neighbourhood sociostructural covariates, males of age 15 to 24 showed an effect on violence, with a 16% decrease in relative risk for each increase the size of its standard deviation. Both unstructured heterogeneity random effect and spatial dependence need to be included in the model. The analysis presented suggests that activity around illicit drug markets is more strongly associated with violent crime than is alcohol outlet density. Unique among the ecological studies in this field, the present study not only shows the direction and magnitude of impact of neighbourhood sociostructural covariates as well as alcohol and illicit drug activities in a neighbourhood, it also reveals the importance of applying hierarchical Bayesian models in this research field as both spatial dependence and heterogeneity random effects need to be considered simultaneously.

Bayesian 2-Stage Space-Time Mixture Modeling With Spatial Misalignment of the Exposure in Small Area Health Data.

PubMed

Lawson, Andrew B; Choi, Jungsoon; Cai, Bo; Hossain, Monir; Kirby, Russell S; Liu, Jihong

2012-09-01

We develop a new Bayesian two-stage space-time mixture model to investigate the effects of air pollution on asthma. The two-stage mixture model proposed allows for the identification of temporal latent structure as well as the estimation of the effects of covariates on health outcomes. In the paper, we also consider spatial misalignment of exposure and health data. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the 2-stage mixture model. We apply our statistical framework to a county-level ambulatory care asthma data set in the US state of Georgia for the years 1999-2008.

Spatio-temporal modelling for assessing air pollution in Santiago de Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolis, Orietta; Camaño, Christian; Mařın, Julio C.; Sahu, Sujit K.

2017-01-01

In this work, we propose a space-time approach for studying the PM2.5 concentration in the city of Santiago de Chile. In particular, we apply the autoregressive hierarchical model proposed by [1] using the PM2.5 observations collected by a monitoring network as a response variable and numerical weather forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as covariate together with spatial and temporal (periodic) components. The approach is able to provide short-term spatio-temporal predictions of PM2.5 concentrations on a fine spatial grid (at 1km × 1km horizontal resolution.)

Analysis of Extreme Snow Water Equivalent Data in Central New Hampshire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuyovich, C.; Skahill, B. E.; Kanney, J. F.; Carr, M.

2017-12-01

Heavy snowfall and snowmelt-related events have been linked to widespread flooding and damages in many regions of the U.S. Design of critical infrastructure in these regions requires spatial estimates of extreme snow water equivalent (SWE). In this study, we develop station specific and spatially explicit estimates of extreme SWE using data from fifteen snow sampling stations maintained by the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services. The stations are located in the Mascoma, Pemigewasset, Winnipesaukee, Ossipee, Salmon Falls, Lamprey, Sugar, and Isinglass basins in New Hampshire. The average record length for the fifteen stations is approximately fifty-nine years. The spatial analysis of extreme SWE involves application of two Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling methods, one that assumes conditional independence, and another which uses the Smith max-stable process model to account for spatial dependence. We also apply additional max-stable process models, albeit not in a Bayesian framework, that better model the observed dependence among the extreme SWE data. The spatial process modeling leverages readily available and relevant spatially explicit covariate data. The noted additional max-stable process models also used the nonstationary winter North Atlantic Oscillation index, which has been observed to influence snowy weather along the east coast of the United States. We find that, for this data set, SWE return level estimates are consistently higher when derived using methods which account for the observed spatial dependence among the extreme data. This is particularly significant for design scenarios of relevance for critical infrastructure evaluation.

Spatio-temporal alignment of pedobarographic image sequences.

PubMed

Oliveira, Francisco P M; Sousa, Andreia; Santos, Rubim; Tavares, João Manuel R S

2011-07-01

This article presents a methodology to align plantar pressure image sequences simultaneously in time and space. The spatial position and orientation of a foot in a sequence are changed to match the foot represented in a second sequence. Simultaneously with the spatial alignment, the temporal scale of the first sequence is transformed with the aim of synchronizing the two input footsteps. Consequently, the spatial correspondence of the foot regions along the sequences as well as the temporal synchronizing is automatically attained, making the study easier and more straightforward. In terms of spatial alignment, the methodology can use one of four possible geometric transformation models: rigid, similarity, affine, or projective. In the temporal alignment, a polynomial transformation up to the 4th degree can be adopted in order to model linear and curved time behaviors. Suitable geometric and temporal transformations are found by minimizing the mean squared error (MSE) between the input sequences. The methodology was tested on a set of real image sequences acquired from a common pedobarographic device. When used in experimental cases generated by applying geometric and temporal control transformations, the methodology revealed high accuracy. In addition, the intra-subject alignment tests from real plantar pressure image sequences showed that the curved temporal models produced better MSE results (P < 0.001) than the linear temporal model. This article represents an important step forward in the alignment of pedobarographic image data, since previous methods can only be applied on static images.

Spatial uncertainty analysis: Propagation of interpolation errors in spatially distributed models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phillips, D.L.; Marks, D.G.

1996-01-01

In simulation modelling, it is desirable to quantify model uncertainties and provide not only point estimates for output variables but confidence intervals as well. Spatially distributed physical and ecological process models are becoming widely used, with runs being made over a grid of points that represent the landscape. This requires input values at each grid point, which often have to be interpolated from irregularly scattered measurement sites, e.g., weather stations. Interpolation introduces spatially varying errors which propagate through the model We extended established uncertainty analysis methods to a spatial domain for quantifying spatial patterns of input variable interpolation errors and how they propagate through a model to affect the uncertainty of the model output. We applied this to a model of potential evapotranspiration (PET) as a demonstration. We modelled PET for three time periods in 1990 as a function of temperature, humidity, and wind on a 10-km grid across the U.S. portion of the Columbia River Basin. Temperature, humidity, and wind speed were interpolated using kriging from 700- 1000 supporting data points. Kriging standard deviations (SD) were used to quantify the spatially varying interpolation uncertainties. For each of 5693 grid points, 100 Monte Carlo simulations were done, using the kriged values of temperature, humidity, and wind, plus random error terms determined by the kriging SDs and the correlations of interpolation errors among the three variables. For the spring season example, kriging SDs averaged 2.6??C for temperature, 8.7% for relative humidity, and 0.38 m s-1 for wind. The resultant PET estimates had coefficients of variation (CVs) ranging from 14% to 27% for the 10-km grid cells. Maps of PET means and CVs showed the spatial patterns of PET with a measure of its uncertainty due to interpolation of the input variables. This methodology should be applicable to a variety of spatially distributed models using interpolated inputs.

Measuring the value of air quality: application of the spatial hedonic model.

PubMed

Kim, Seung Gyu; Cho, Seong-Hoon; Lambert, Dayton M; Roberts, Roland K

2010-03-01

This study applies a hedonic model to assess the economic benefits of air quality improvement following the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendment at the county level in the lower 48 United States. An instrumental variable approach that combines geographically weighted regression and spatial autoregression methods (GWR-SEM) is adopted to simultaneously account for spatial heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation. SEM mitigates spatial dependency while GWR addresses spatial heterogeneity by allowing response coefficients to vary across observations. Positive amenity values of improved air quality are found in four major clusters: (1) in East Kentucky and most of Georgia around the Southern Appalachian area; (2) in a few counties in Illinois; (3) on the border of Oklahoma and Kansas, on the border of Kansas and Nebraska, and in east Texas; and (4) in a few counties in Montana. Clusters of significant positive amenity values may exist because of a combination of intense air pollution and consumer awareness of diminishing air quality.

A simple model for factory distribution: Historical effect in an industry city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uehara, Takashi; Sato, Kazunori; Morita, Satoru; Maeda, Yasunobu; Yoshimura, Jin; Tainaka, Kei-ichi

2016-02-01

The construction and discontinuance processes of factories are complicated problems in sociology. We focus on the spatial and temporal changes of factories at Hamamatsu city in Japan. Real data indicate that the clumping degree of factories decreases as the density of factory increases. To represent the spatial and temporal changes of factories, we apply "contact process" which is one of cellular automata. This model roughly explains the dynamics of factory distribution. We also find "historical effect" in spatial distribution. Namely, the recent factories have been dispersed due to the past distribution during the period of economic bubble. This effect may be related to heavy shock in Japanese stock market.

Leveraging Mechanism Simplicity and Strategic Averaging to Identify Signals from Highly Heterogeneous Spatial and Temporal Ozone Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown-Steiner, B.; Selin, N. E.; Prinn, R. G.; Monier, E.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Tilmes, S.; Emmons, L. K.; Lamarque, J. F.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.

2017-12-01

We summarize two methods to aid in the identification of ozone signals from underlying spatially and temporally heterogeneous data in order to help research communities avoid the sometimes burdensome computational costs of high-resolution high-complexity models. The first method utilizes simplified chemical mechanisms (a Reduced Hydrocarbon Mechanism and a Superfast Mechanism) alongside a more complex mechanism (MOZART-4) within CESM CAM-Chem to extend the number of simulated meteorological years (or add additional members to an ensemble) for a given modeling problem. The Reduced Hydrocarbon mechanism is twice as fast, and the Superfast mechanism is three times faster than the MOZART-4 mechanism. We show that simplified chemical mechanisms are largely capable of simulating surface ozone across the globe as well as the more complex chemical mechanisms, and where they are not capable, a simple standardized anomaly emulation approach can correct for their inadequacies. The second method uses strategic averaging over both temporal and spatial scales to filter out the highly heterogeneous noise that underlies ozone observations and simulations. This method allows for a selection of temporal and spatial averaging scales that match a particular signal strength (between 0.5 and 5 ppbv), and enables the identification of regions where an ozone signal can rise above the ozone noise over a given region and a given period of time. In conjunction, these two methods can be used to "scale down" chemical mechanism complexity and quantitatively determine spatial and temporal scales that could enable research communities to utilize simplified representations of atmospheric chemistry and thereby maximize their productivity and efficiency given computational constraints. While this framework is here applied to ozone data, it could also be applied to a broad range of geospatial data sets (observed or modeled) that have spatial and temporal coverage.

Spatial Sampling of Weather Data for Regional Crop Yield Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Van Bussel, Lenny G. J.; Ewert, Frank; Zhao, Gang; Hoffmann, Holger; Enders, Andreas; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold; Baigorria, Guillermo A.; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian;

Monitoring and modeling as a continuing learning process: the use of hydrological models in a general probabilistic framework.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baroni, G.; Gräff, T.; Reinstorf, F.; Oswald, S. E.

2012-04-01

Nowadays uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are considered basic tools for the assessment of hydrological models and the evaluation of the most important sources of uncertainty. In this context, in the last decades several methods have been developed and applied in different hydrological conditions. However, in most of the cases, the studies have been done by investigating mainly the influence of the parameter uncertainty on the simulated outputs and few approaches tried to consider also other sources of uncertainty i.e. input and model structure. Moreover, several constrains arise when spatially distributed parameters are involved. To overcome these limitations a general probabilistic framework based on Monte Carlo simulations and the Sobol method has been proposed. In this study, the general probabilistic framework was applied at field scale using a 1D physical-based hydrological model (SWAP). Furthermore, the framework was extended at catchment scale in combination with a spatially distributed hydrological model (SHETRAN). The models are applied in two different experimental sites in Germany: a relatively flat cropped field close to Potsdam (Brandenburg) and a small mountainous catchment with agricultural land use (Schaefertal, Harz Mountains). For both cases, input and parameters are considered as major sources of uncertainty. Evaluation of the models was based on soil moisture detected at plot scale in different depths and, for the catchment site, also with daily discharge values. The study shows how the framework can take into account all the various sources of uncertainty i.e. input data, parameters (either in scalar or spatially distributed form) and model structures. The framework can be used in a loop in order to optimize further monitoring activities used to improve the performance of the model. In the particular applications, the results show how the sources of uncertainty are specific for each process considered. The influence of the input data as well as the presence of compensating errors become clear by the different processes simulated.

Status and Trends of Nitrogen Loads to Estuaries of the Conterminous U.S.

EPA Science Inventory

We applied regional SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) models to estimate status and trends of potential nitrogen loads to estuaries of the conterminous United States. The original SPARROW models predict average detrended loads by source based on ...

The Estrada Real project and endemic diseases: the case of schistosomiasis, geoprocessing and tourism.

PubMed

Carvalho, Omar S; Scholte, Ronaldo G C; Guimarães, Ricardo J P S; Freitas, Corina C; Drummond, Sandra C; Amaral, Ronaldo S; Dutra, Luciano V; Oliveira, Guilherme; Massara, Cristiano L; Enk, Martin J

2010-07-01

Geographical Information System (GIS) is a tool that has recently been applied to better understand spatial disease distributions. Using meteorological, social, sanitation, mollusc distribution data and remote sensing variables, this study aimed to further develop the GIS technology by creating a model for the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis and to apply this model to an area with rural tourism in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais (MG). The Estrada Real, covering about 1,400 km, is the largest and most important Brazilian tourism project, involving 163 cities in MG with different schistosomiasis prevalence rates. The model with three variables showed a R(2) = 0.34, with a standard deviation of risk estimated adequate for public health needs. The main variables selected for modelling were summer vegetation, summer minimal temperature and winter minimal temperature. The results confirmed the importance of Remote Sensing data and the valuable contribution of GIS in identifying priority areas for intervention in tourism regions which are endemic to schistosomiasis.

Integrating spatially explicit indices of abundance and habitat quality: an applied example for greater sage-grouse management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Ricca, Mark A.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Gustafson, K. Benjamin; Overton, Cory T.; Davis, Dawn M.; Niell, Lara E.; Espinosa, Shawn P.; Gardner, Scott C.; Delehanty, David J.

2016-01-01

Predictive species distributional models are a cornerstone of wildlife conservation planning. Constructing such models requires robust underpinning science that integrates formerly disparate data types to achieve effective species management. Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus, hereafter “sage-grouse” populations are declining throughout sagebrush-steppe ecosystems in North America, particularly within the Great Basin, which heightens the need for novel management tools that maximize use of available information. Herein, we improve upon existing species distribution models by combining information about sage-grouse habitat quality, distribution, and abundance from multiple data sources. To measure habitat, we created spatially explicit maps depicting habitat selection indices (HSI) informed by > 35 500 independent telemetry locations from > 1600 sage-grouse collected over 15 years across much of the Great Basin. These indices were derived from models that accounted for selection at different spatial scales and seasons. A region-wide HSI was calculated using the HSI surfaces modelled for 12 independent subregions and then demarcated into distinct habitat quality classes. We also employed a novel index to describe landscape patterns of sage-grouse abundance and space use (AUI). The AUI is a probabilistic composite of: (i) breeding density patterns based on the spatial configuration of breeding leks and associated trends in male attendance; and (ii) year-round patterns of space use indexed by the decreasing probability of use with increasing distance to leks. The continuous AUI surface was then reclassified into two classes representing high and low/no use and abundance. Synthesis and applications. Using the example of sage-grouse, we demonstrate how the joint application of indices of habitat selection, abundance, and space use derived from multiple data sources yields a composite map that can guide effective allocation of management intensity across multiple spatial scales. As applied to sage-grouse, the composite map identifies spatially explicit management categories within sagebrush steppe that are most critical to sustaining sage-grouse populations as well as those areas where changes in land use would likely have minimal impact. Importantly, collaborative efforts among stakeholders guide which intersections of habitat selection indices and abundance and space use classes are used to define management categories. Because sage-grouse are an umbrella species, our joint-index modelling approach can help target effective conservation for other sagebrush obligate species, and can be readily applied to species in other ecosystems with similar life histories, such as central-placed breeding.

Integrating spatially explicit indices of abundance and habitat quality: an applied example for greater sage-grouse management.

PubMed

Coates, Peter S; Casazza, Michael L; Ricca, Mark A; Brussee, Brianne E; Blomberg, Erik J; Gustafson, K Benjamin; Overton, Cory T; Davis, Dawn M; Niell, Lara E; Espinosa, Shawn P; Gardner, Scott C; Delehanty, David J

2016-02-01

Predictive species distributional models are a cornerstone of wildlife conservation planning. Constructing such models requires robust underpinning science that integrates formerly disparate data types to achieve effective species management.Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus , hereafter 'sage-grouse' populations are declining throughout sagebrush-steppe ecosystems in North America, particularly within the Great Basin, which heightens the need for novel management tools that maximize the use of available information.Herein, we improve upon existing species distribution models by combining information about sage-grouse habitat quality, distribution and abundance from multiple data sources. To measure habitat, we created spatially explicit maps depicting habitat selection indices (HSI) informed by >35 500 independent telemetry locations from >1600 sage-grouse collected over 15 years across much of the Great Basin. These indices were derived from models that accounted for selection at different spatial scales and seasons. A region-wide HSI was calculated using the HSI surfaces modelled for 12 independent subregions and then demarcated into distinct habitat quality classes.We also employed a novel index to describe landscape patterns of sage-grouse abundance and space use (AUI). The AUI is a probabilistic composite of the following: (i) breeding density patterns based on the spatial configuration of breeding leks and associated trends in male attendance; and (ii) year-round patterns of space use indexed by the decreasing probability of use with increasing distance to leks. The continuous AUI surface was then reclassified into two classes representing high and low/no use and abundance. Synthesis and application s. Using the example of sage-grouse, we demonstrate how the joint application of indices of habitat selection, abundance and space use derived from multiple data sources yields a composite map that can guide effective allocation of management intensity across multiple spatial scales. As applied to sage-grouse, the composite map identifies spatially explicit management categories within sagebrush steppe that are most critical to sustaining sage-grouse populations as well as those areas where changes in land use would likely have minimal impact. Importantly, collaborative efforts among stakeholders guide which intersections of habitat selection indices and abundance and space use classes are used to define management categories. Because sage-grouse are an umbrella species, our joint-index modelling approach can help target effective conservation for other sagebrush obligate species and can be readily applied to species in other ecosystems with similar life histories, such as central-placed breeding.

Spatially Distributed Characterization of Catchment Dynamics Using Travel-Time Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heße, F.; Zink, M.; Attinger, S.

2015-12-01

The description of storage and transport of both water and solved contaminants in catchments is very difficult due to the high heterogeneity of the subsurface properties that govern their fate. This heterogeneity, combined with a generally limited knowledge about the subsurface, results in high degrees of uncertainty. As a result, stochastic methods are increasingly applied, where the relevant processes are modeled as being random. Within these methods, quantities like the catchment travel or residence time of a water parcel are described using probability density functions (PDF). The derivation of these PDF's is typically done by using the water fluxes and states of the catchment. A successful application of such frameworks is therefore contingent on a good quantification of these fluxes and states across the different spatial scales. The objective of this study is to use travel times for the characterization of an ca. 1000 square kilometer, humid catchment in Central Germany. To determine the states and fluxes, we apply the mesoscale Hydrological Model mHM, a spatially distributed hydrological model to the catchment. Using detailed data of precipitation, land cover, morphology and soil type as inputs, mHM is able to determine fluxes like recharge and evapotranspiration and states like soil moisture as outputs. Using these data, we apply the above theoretical framework to our catchment. By virtue of the aforementioned properties of mHM, we are able to describe the storage and release of water with a high spatial resolution. This allows for a comprehensive description of the flow and transport dynamics taking place in the catchment. The spatial distribution of such dynamics is then compared with land cover and soil moisture maps as well as driving forces like precipitation and temperature to determine the most predictive factors. In addition, we investigate how non-local data like the age distribution of discharge flows are impacted by, and therefore allow to infer, local properties of the catchment.

A three-dimensional point process model for the spatial distribution of disease occurrence in relation to an exposure source.

PubMed

Grell, Kathrine; Diggle, Peter J; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Schüz, Joachim; Cardis, Elisabeth; Andersen, Per K

2015-10-15

We study methods for how to include the spatial distribution of tumours when investigating the relation between brain tumours and the exposure from radio frequency electromagnetic fields caused by mobile phone use. Our suggested point process model is adapted from studies investigating spatial aggregation of a disease around a source of potential hazard in environmental epidemiology, where now the source is the preferred ear of each phone user. In this context, the spatial distribution is a distribution over a sample of patients rather than over multiple disease cases within one geographical area. We show how the distance relation between tumour and phone can be modelled nonparametrically and, with various parametric functions, how covariates can be included in the model and how to test for the effect of distance. To illustrate the models, we apply them to a subset of the data from the Interphone Study, a large multinational case-control study on the association between brain tumours and mobile phone use. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modeling the hydrologic impacts of forest harvesting on Florida flatwoods

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Hans Rierkerk; Nicholas B. Comerford

1998-01-01

The great temporal and spatial variability of pine flatwoods hydrology suggests traditional short-term field methods may not be effective in evaluating the hydrologic effects of forest management. The flatwoods model was developed, calibrated and validated specifically for the cypress wetland-pine upland landscape. The model was applied to two typical flatwoods sites...

Spatial models reveal the microclimatic buffering capacity of old-growth forests

Treesearch

Sarah J. K. Frey; Adam S. Hadley; Sherri L. Johnson; Mark Schulze; Julia A. Jones; Matthew. G. Betts

2016-01-01

Climate change is predicted to cause widespread declines in biodiversity, but these predictions are derived from coarse-resolution climate models applied at global scales. Such models lack the capacity to incorporate microclimate variability, which is critical to biodiversity microrefugia. In forested montane regions, microclimate is thought to be influenced by...

Large-area forest inventory regression modeling: spatial scale considerations

Treesearch

James A. Westfall

2015-01-01

In many forest inventories, statistical models are employed to predict values for attributes that are difficult and/or time-consuming to measure. In some applications, models are applied across a large geographic area, which assumes the relationship between the response variable and predictors is ubiquitously invariable within the area. The extent to which this...

Circular Conditional Autoregressive Modeling of Vector Fields.

PubMed

Modlin, Danny; Fuentes, Montse; Reich, Brian

2012-02-01

As hurricanes approach landfall, there are several hazards for which coastal populations must be prepared. Damaging winds, torrential rains, and tornadoes play havoc with both the coast and inland areas; but, the biggest seaside menace to life and property is the storm surge. Wind fields are used as the primary forcing for the numerical forecasts of the coastal ocean response to hurricane force winds, such as the height of the storm surge and the degree of coastal flooding. Unfortunately, developments in deterministic modeling of these forcings have been hindered by computational expenses. In this paper, we present a multivariate spatial model for vector fields, that we apply to hurricane winds. We parameterize the wind vector at each site in polar coordinates and specify a circular conditional autoregressive (CCAR) model for the vector direction, and a spatial CAR model for speed. We apply our framework for vector fields to hurricane surface wind fields for Hurricane Floyd of 1999 and compare our CCAR model to prior methods that decompose wind speed and direction into its N-S and W-E cardinal components.

Circular Conditional Autoregressive Modeling of Vector Fields*

PubMed Central

Modlin, Danny; Fuentes, Montse; Reich, Brian

2013-01-01

As hurricanes approach landfall, there are several hazards for which coastal populations must be prepared. Damaging winds, torrential rains, and tornadoes play havoc with both the coast and inland areas; but, the biggest seaside menace to life and property is the storm surge. Wind fields are used as the primary forcing for the numerical forecasts of the coastal ocean response to hurricane force winds, such as the height of the storm surge and the degree of coastal flooding. Unfortunately, developments in deterministic modeling of these forcings have been hindered by computational expenses. In this paper, we present a multivariate spatial model for vector fields, that we apply to hurricane winds. We parameterize the wind vector at each site in polar coordinates and specify a circular conditional autoregressive (CCAR) model for the vector direction, and a spatial CAR model for speed. We apply our framework for vector fields to hurricane surface wind fields for Hurricane Floyd of 1999 and compare our CCAR model to prior methods that decompose wind speed and direction into its N-S and W-E cardinal components. PMID:24353452

A Patch Density Recommendation based on Convergence Studies for Vehicle Panel Vibration Response resulting from Excitation by a Diffuse Acoustic Field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Andrew; LaVerde, Bruce; Jones, Douglas; Towner, Robert; Waldon, James; Hunt, Ron

2013-01-01

Producing fluid structural interaction estimates of panel vibration from an applied pressure field excitation are quite dependent on the spatial correlation of the pressure field. There is a danger of either over estimating a low frequency response or under predicting broad band panel response in the more modally dense bands if the pressure field spatial correlation is not accounted for adequately. It is a useful practice to simulate the spatial correlation of the applied pressure field over a 2d surface using a matrix of small patch area regions on a finite element model (FEM). Use of a fitted function for the spatial correlation between patch centers can result in an error if the choice of patch density is not fine enough to represent the more continuous spatial correlation function throughout the intended frequency range of interest. Several patch density assumptions to approximate the fitted spatial correlation function are first evaluated using both qualitative and quantitative illustrations. The actual response of a typical vehicle panel system FEM is then examined in a convergence study where the patch density assumptions are varied over the same model. The convergence study results illustrate the impacts possible from a poor choice of patch density on the analytical response estimate. The fitted correlation function used in this study represents a diffuse acoustic field (DAF) excitation of the panel to produce vibration response.

Functional inverted Wishart for Bayesian multivariate spatial modeling with application to regional climatology model data.

PubMed

Duan, L L; Szczesniak, R D; Wang, X

2017-11-01

Modern environmental and climatological studies produce multiple outcomes at high spatial resolutions. Multivariate spatial modeling is an established means to quantify cross-correlation among outcomes. However, existing models typically suffer from poor computational efficiency and lack the flexibility to simultaneously estimate auto- and cross-covariance structures. In this article, we undertake a novel construction of covariance by utilizing spectral convolution and by imposing an inverted Wishart prior on the cross-correlation structure. The cross-correlation structure with this functional inverted Wishart prior flexibly accommodates not only positive but also weak or negative associations among outcomes while preserving spatial resolution. Furthermore, the proposed model is computationally efficient and produces easily interpretable results, including the individual autocovariances and full cross-correlation matrices, as well as a partial cross-correlation matrix reflecting the outcome correlation after excluding the effects caused by spatial convolution. The model is examined using simulated data sets under different scenarios. It is also applied to the data from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program, examining long-term associations between surface outcomes for air temperature, pressure, humidity, and radiation, on the land area of the North American West Coast. Results and predictive performance are compared with findings from approaches using convolution only or coregionalization.

Strategy generalization across orientation tasks: testing a computational cognitive model.

PubMed

Gunzelmann, Glenn

2008-07-08

Humans use their spatial information processing abilities flexibly to facilitate problem solving and decision making in a variety of tasks. This article explores the question of whether a general strategy can be adapted for performing two different spatial orientation tasks by testing the predictions of a computational cognitive model. Human performance was measured on an orientation task requiring participants to identify the location of a target either on a map (find-on-map) or within an egocentric view of a space (find-in-scene). A general strategy instantiated in a computational cognitive model of the find-on-map task, based on the results from Gunzelmann and Anderson (2006), was adapted to perform both tasks and used to generate performance predictions for a new study. The qualitative fit of the model to the human data supports the view that participants were able to tailor a general strategy to the requirements of particular spatial tasks. The quantitative differences between the predictions of the model and the performance of human participants in the new experiment expose individual differences in sample populations. The model provides a means of accounting for those differences and a framework for understanding how human spatial abilities are applied to naturalistic spatial tasks that involve reasoning with maps. 2008 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Functional inverted Wishart for Bayesian multivariate spatial modeling with application to regional climatology model data

PubMed Central

Duan, L. L.; Szczesniak, R. D.; Wang, X.

2018-01-01

Modern environmental and climatological studies produce multiple outcomes at high spatial resolutions. Multivariate spatial modeling is an established means to quantify cross-correlation among outcomes. However, existing models typically suffer from poor computational efficiency and lack the flexibility to simultaneously estimate auto- and cross-covariance structures. In this article, we undertake a novel construction of covariance by utilizing spectral convolution and by imposing an inverted Wishart prior on the cross-correlation structure. The cross-correlation structure with this functional inverted Wishart prior flexibly accommodates not only positive but also weak or negative associations among outcomes while preserving spatial resolution. Furthermore, the proposed model is computationally efficient and produces easily interpretable results, including the individual autocovariances and full cross-correlation matrices, as well as a partial cross-correlation matrix reflecting the outcome correlation after excluding the effects caused by spatial convolution. The model is examined using simulated data sets under different scenarios. It is also applied to the data from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program, examining long-term associations between surface outcomes for air temperature, pressure, humidity, and radiation, on the land area of the North American West Coast. Results and predictive performance are compared with findings from approaches using convolution only or coregionalization. PMID:29576735

Modeling Above-Ground Biomass Across Multiple Circum-Arctic Tundra Sites Using High Spatial Resolution Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Räsänen, Aleksi; Juutinen, Sari; Aurela, Mika; Virtanen, Tarmo

2017-04-01

Biomass is one of the central bio-geophysical variables in Earth observation for tracking plant productivity, and flow of carbon, nutrients, and water. Most of the satellite based biomass mapping exercises in Arctic environments have been performed by using rather coarse spatial resolution data, e.g. Landsat and AVHRR which have spatial resolutions of 30 m and >1 km, respectively. While the coarse resolution images have high temporal resolution, they are incapable of capturing the fragmented nature of tundra environment and fine-scale changes in vegetation and carbon exchange patterns. Very high spatial resolution (VHSR, spatial resolution 0.5-2 m) satellite images have the potential to detect environmental variables with an ecologically sound spatial resolution. The usage of VHSR images has, nevertheless, been modest so far in biomass modeling in the Arctic. Our objectives were to use VHSR for predicting above ground biomass in tundra landscapes, evaluate whether a common predictive model can be applied across circum-Arctic tundra and peatland sites having different types of vegetation, and produce knowledge on distribution of plant functional types (PFT) in these sites. Such model development is dependent on ground-based surveys of vegetation with the same spatial resolution and extent with the VHSR images. In this study, we conducted ground-based surveys of vegetation composition and biomass in four different arctic tundra or peatland areas located in Russia, Canada, and Finland. First, we sorted species into PFTs and developed PFT-specific models to predict biomass on the basis of non-destructive measurements (cover, height). Second, we predicted overall biomass on landscape scale by combinations of single bands and vegetation indices of very high resolution satellite images (QuickBird or WorldView-2 images of the eight sites). We compared area-specific empirical regression models and common models that were applied across all sites. We found that NDVI was usually the highest scoring spectral indices in explaining biomass distribution with good explanatory power. Furthermore, models which had more than one explanatory variable had higher explanatory power than models with a single index. The dissimilarity between common and site-specific model estimates was, however, high and data indicates that variation in vegetation properties and its impact on spectral reflectance needs to be acknowledged. Our work produced knowledge on above-ground biomass distribution and contribution of PFTs across circum-Arctic low-growth landscapes and will contribute to developing space-borne vegetation monitoring schemes utilizing VHSR satellite images.

Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration modeling and climate projections.

PubMed

Gharbia, Salem S; Smullen, Trevor; Gill, Laurence; Johnston, Paul; Pilla, Francesco

2018-08-15

Evapotranspiration integrates energy and mass transfer between the Earth's surface and atmosphere and is the most active mechanism linking the atmosphere, hydrosphsophere, lithosphere and biosphere. This study focuses on the fine resolution modeling and projection of spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment scale as response to climate change. Six potential evapotranspiration designed algorithms, systematically selected based on a structured criteria and data availability, have been applied and then validated to long-term mean monthly data for the Shannon River catchment with a 50m 2 cell size. The best validated algorithm was therefore applied to evaluate the possible effect of future climate change on potential evapotranspiration rates. Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration projections have been modeled based on climate change projections from multi-GCM ensembles for three future time intervals (2020, 2050 and 2080) using a range of different Representative Concentration Pathways producing four scenarios for each time interval. Finally, seasonal results have been compared to baseline results to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential evapotranspiration and therefor on the catchment dynamical water balance. The results present evidence that the modeled climate change scenarios would have a significant impact on the future potential evapotranspiration rates. All the simulated scenarios predicted an increase in potential evapotranspiration for each modeled future time interval, which would significantly affect the dynamical catchment water balance. This study addresses the gap in the literature of using GIS-based algorithms to model fine-scale spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems based on climatological observations and simulations in different climatological zones. Providing fine-scale potential evapotranspiration data is very crucial to assess the dynamical catchment water balance to setup management scenarios for the water abstractions. This study illustrates a transferable systematic method to design GIS-based algorithms to simulate spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Empirical evaluation of spatial and non-spatial European-scale multimedia fate models: results and implications for chemical risk assessment.

PubMed

Armitage, James M; Cousins, Ian T; Hauck, Mara; Harbers, Jasper V; Huijbregts, Mark A J

2007-06-01

Multimedia environmental fate models are commonly-applied tools for assessing the fate and distribution of contaminants in the environment. Owing to the large number of chemicals in use and the paucity of monitoring data, such models are often adopted as part of decision-support systems for chemical risk assessment. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of three multimedia environmental fate models (spatially- and non-spatially-explicit) at a European scale. The assessment was conducted for four polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and compared predicted and median observed concentrations using monitoring data collected for air, water, sediments and soils. Model performance in the air compartment was reasonable for all models included in the evaluation exercise as predicted concentrations were typically within a factor of 3 of the median observed concentrations. Furthermore, there was good correspondence between predictions and observations in regions that had elevated median observed concentrations for both spatially-explicit models. On the other hand, all three models consistently underestimated median observed concentrations in sediment and soil by 1-3 orders of magnitude. Although regions with elevated median observed concentrations in these environmental media were broadly identified by the spatially-explicit models, the magnitude of the discrepancy between predicted and median observed concentrations is of concern in the context of chemical risk assessment. These results were discussed in terms of factors influencing model performance such as the steady-state assumption, inaccuracies in emission estimates and the representativeness of monitoring data.

Spatial epidemiological techniques in cholera mapping and analysis towards a local scale predictive modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasam, A. R. A.; Ghazali, R.; Noor, A. M. M.; Mohd, W. M. N. W.; Hamid, J. R. A.; Bazlan, M. J.; Ahmad, N.

2014-02-01

Cholera spatial epidemiology is the study of the spread and control of the disease spatial pattern and epidemics. Previous studies have shown that multi-factorial causation such as human behaviour, ecology and other infectious risk factors influence the disease outbreaks. Thus, understanding spatial pattern and possible interrelationship factors of the outbreaks are crucial to be explored an in-depth study. This study focuses on the integration of geographical information system (GIS) and epidemiological techniques in exploratory analyzing the cholera spatial pattern and distribution in the selected district of Sabah. Spatial Statistic and Pattern tools in ArcGIS and Microsoft Excel software were utilized to map and analyze the reported cholera cases and other data used. Meanwhile, cohort study in epidemiological technique was applied to investigate multiple outcomes of the disease exposure. The general spatial pattern of cholera was highly clustered showed the disease spread easily at a place or person to others especially 1500 meters from the infected person and locations. Although the cholera outbreaks in the districts are not critical, it could be endemic at the crowded areas, unhygienic environment, and close to contaminated water. It was also strongly believed that the coastal water of the study areas has possible relationship with the cholera transmission and phytoplankton bloom since the areas recorded higher cases. GIS demonstrates a vital spatial epidemiological technique in determining the distribution pattern and elucidating the hypotheses generating of the disease. The next research would be applying some advanced geo-analysis methods and other disease risk factors for producing a significant a local scale predictive risk model of the disease in Malaysia.

Generalized theoretical method for the interaction between arbitrary nonuniform electric field and molecular vibrations: Toward near-field infrared spectroscopy and microscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Iwasa, Takeshi, E-mail: tiwasa@mail.sci.hokudai.ac.jp; Takenaka, Masato; Taketsugu, Tetsuya

A theoretical method to compute infrared absorption spectra when a molecule is interacting with an arbitrary nonuniform electric field such as near-fields is developed and numerically applied to simple model systems. The method is based on the multipolar Hamiltonian where the light-matter interaction is described by a spatial integral of the inner product of the molecular polarization and applied electric field. The computation scheme is developed under the harmonic approximation for the molecular vibrations and the framework of modern electronic structure calculations such as the density functional theory. Infrared reflection absorption and near-field infrared absorption are considered as model systems.more » The obtained IR spectra successfully reflect the spatial structure of the applied electric field and corresponding vibrational modes, demonstrating applicability of the present method to analyze modern nanovibrational spectroscopy using near-fields. The present method can use arbitral electric fields and thus can integrate two fields such as computational chemistry and electromagnetics.« less

Generalized theoretical method for the interaction between arbitrary nonuniform electric field and molecular vibrations: Toward near-field infrared spectroscopy and microscopy.

PubMed

Iwasa, Takeshi; Takenaka, Masato; Taketsugu, Tetsuya

2016-03-28

A theoretical method to compute infrared absorption spectra when a molecule is interacting with an arbitrary nonuniform electric field such as near-fields is developed and numerically applied to simple model systems. The method is based on the multipolar Hamiltonian where the light-matter interaction is described by a spatial integral of the inner product of the molecular polarization and applied electric field. The computation scheme is developed under the harmonic approximation for the molecular vibrations and the framework of modern electronic structure calculations such as the density functional theory. Infrared reflection absorption and near-field infrared absorption are considered as model systems. The obtained IR spectra successfully reflect the spatial structure of the applied electric field and corresponding vibrational modes, demonstrating applicability of the present method to analyze modern nanovibrational spectroscopy using near-fields. The present method can use arbitral electric fields and thus can integrate two fields such as computational chemistry and electromagnetics.

Spatial Rule-Based Modeling: A Method and Its Application to the Human Mitotic Kinetochore

PubMed Central

Ibrahim, Bashar; Henze, Richard; Gruenert, Gerd; Egbert, Matthew; Huwald, Jan; Dittrich, Peter

2013-01-01

A common problem in the analysis of biological systems is the combinatorial explosion that emerges from the complexity of multi-protein assemblies. Conventional formalisms, like differential equations, Boolean networks and Bayesian networks, are unsuitable for dealing with the combinatorial explosion, because they are designed for a restricted state space with fixed dimensionality. To overcome this problem, the rule-based modeling language, BioNetGen, and the spatial extension, SRSim, have been developed. Here, we describe how to apply rule-based modeling to integrate experimental data from different sources into a single spatial simulation model and how to analyze the output of that model. The starting point for this approach can be a combination of molecular interaction data, reaction network data, proximities, binding and diffusion kinetics and molecular geometries at different levels of detail. We describe the technique and then use it to construct a model of the human mitotic inner and outer kinetochore, including the spindle assembly checkpoint signaling pathway. This allows us to demonstrate the utility of the procedure, show how a novel perspective for understanding such complex systems becomes accessible and elaborate on challenges that arise in the formulation, simulation and analysis of spatial rule-based models. PMID:24709796

Tracing Crop Nitrogen Dynamics on the Field-Scale by Combining Multisensoral EO Data with an Integrated Process Model- A Validation Experiment for Cereals in Southern Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hank, Tobias B.; Bach, Heike; Danner, Martin; Hodrius, Martina; Mauser, Wolfram

2016-08-01

Nitrogen, being the basic element for the construction of plant proteins and pigments, is one of the most important production factors for agricultural cultivation. High resolution and near real-time information on nitrogen status in the soil thus is of highest interest for economically and ecologically optimized fertilizer planning and application. Unfortunately, nitrogen storage in the soil column cannot be directly observed with Earth Observation (EO) instruments. Advanced EO supported process modelling approaches therefore must be applied that allow tracing the spatiotemporal dynamics of nitrogen transformation, translocation and transport in the soil and in the canopy. Before these models can be applied as decision support tools for smart farming, they must be carefully parameterized and validated. This study applies an advanced land surface process model (PROMET) to selected winter cereal fields in Southern Germany and correlates the model outputs to destructively sampled nitrogen data from the growing season of 2015 (17 sampling dates, 8 sample locations). The spatial parametrization of the process model thereby is supported by assimilating eight satellite images (5 times Landsat 8 OLI and 3 times RapidEye). It was found that the model is capable of realistically tracing the temporal and spatial dynamics of aboveground nitrogen uptake and allocation (R2 = 0.84, RMSE 31.3 kg ha-1).

Modelling and simulation of a heat exchanger

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xia, Lei; Deabreu-Garcia, J. Alex; Hartley, Tom T.

1991-01-01

Two models for two different control systems are developed for a parallel heat exchanger. First by spatially lumping a heat exchanger model, a good approximate model which has a high system order is produced. Model reduction techniques are applied to these to obtain low order models that are suitable for dynamic analysis and control design. The simulation method is discussed to ensure a valid simulation result.

A Methodology for the Assessment of Unconventional (Continuous) Resources with an Application to the Greater Natural Buttes Gas Field, Utah

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olea, Ricardo A., E-mail: olea@usgs.gov; Cook, Troy A.; Coleman, James L.

2010-12-15

The Greater Natural Buttes tight natural gas field is an unconventional (continuous) accumulation in the Uinta Basin, Utah, that began production in the early 1950s from the Upper Cretaceous Mesaverde Group. Three years later, production was extended to the Eocene Wasatch Formation. With the exclusion of 1100 non-productive ('dry') wells, we estimate that the final recovery from the 2500 producing wells existing in 2007 will be about 1.7 trillion standard cubic feet (TSCF) (48.2 billion cubic meters (BCM)). The use of estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per well is common in assessments of unconventional resources, and it is one of themore » main sources of information to forecast undiscovered resources. Each calculated recovery value has an associated drainage area that generally varies from well to well and that can be mathematically subdivided into elemental subareas of constant size and shape called cells. Recovery per 5-acre cells at Greater Natural Buttes shows spatial correlation; hence, statistical approaches that ignore this correlation when inferring EUR values for untested cells do not take full advantage of all the information contained in the data. More critically, resulting models do not match the style of spatial EUR fluctuations observed in nature. This study takes a new approach by applying spatial statistics to model geographical variation of cell EUR taking into account spatial correlation and the influence of fractures. We applied sequential indicator simulation to model non-productive cells, while spatial mapping of cell EUR was obtained by applying sequential Gaussian simulation to provide multiple versions of reality (realizations) having equal chances of being the correct model. For each realization, summation of EUR in cells not drained by the existing wells allowed preparation of a stochastic prediction of undiscovered resources, which range between 2.6 and 3.4 TSCF (73.6 and 96.3 BCM) with a mean of 2.9 TSCF (82.1 BCM) for Greater Natural Buttes. A second approach illustrates the application of multiple-point simulation to assess a hypothetical frontier area for which there is no production information but which is regarded as being similar to Greater Natural Buttes.« less

Understanding the Spatial Distribution and Quantity of Soil Organic Carbon in Depressional Landscapes of Minnesota

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, A.; Bell, J. C.; Nater, E. A.

2012-12-01

Human disturbance has dramatically affected organic carbon cycling in soils. The Des Moines Lobe region of Minnesota is a young glaciated region with closed depressions and a deranged drainage network. Native prairie and forests in this region were nearly all converted to cropland following European settlement circa 1840s. It has generally been assumed that intensive tillage intensifies soil erosion and increases the rate of oxidation of soil organic carbon (SOC) and the subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere. However, more recent studies suggest that tillage simply redistributes sediments and SOC to concave and low-lying areas, and that dynamic replacement of SOC at erosional sites and burial of SOC in poorly-aerated depressional wetlands may serve as a soil carbon sink in this region. The spatial distribution of SOC in these depressional landscapes following tillage and subsequent erosion/deposition is not well understood. We aim to understand the distribution of SOC in relation to topographic controls at the landscape scale and to quantify SOC contents at the regional extent. While spatial distribution of SOC can be modeled by terrain analysis, topographic characteristics used to predict soil properties including SOC have been mostly limited to local neighborhoods (i.e. attributes calculated using three by three cell-sized windows in gridded datasets). Relevant topographic characteristics in the upslope contributing area (UCA) were rarely applied in soil-landscape models, possibly due to technical complexity. Our objectives in this study were: 1. To develop variables that represent UCA terrain attributes for soil-landscape modeling, 2. to predict SOC distribution and mass contents from the best-fit spatial SOC models with model validation for use in this depressional landscape region, and 3. to interpret SOC processes under the impact of agriculture-induced erosion and deposition since the settlement in this region. We took soil samples by soil horizon to a depth of 1m in transects following hillslope positions at our study site at Lake Rebecca Park Reserve. A mass-preserving spline function was applied to provide the mean SOC values (%) in 25cm increments to 1m deep from horizon-based field data in order to model SOC in fixed depths. Local neighborhood terrain attributes, including elevation, slope steepness, slope length, specific catchment area, profile curvature, plan curvature, topographic wetness index and stream power index, were developed from a LiDAR-based 1-m digital elevation model. Gridded UCA datasets for each sampling site were carefully queried and investigated. Mean and standard deviation of the terrain attributes within the UCA were extracted as representative variables for the UCA terrain attributes. We applied both local and upslope terrain attributes as predictor variables for spatial SOC modeling using regression and principle component regression analyses. Performance and validation of the SOC models were investigated. Intending to apply the best-fit SOC model at the regional scale, we validated the models using SOC data from soil samples taken in thirteen counties with similar Des Moines Lobe till landscapes in south-central Minnesota. The spatial distribution of SOC was mapped and the overall SOC mass (kg/m3) was estimated for this region of Minnesota.

Comprehensive Status and Trends of Nitrogen Loads to Estuaries in the Conterminous United States: Pacific Coast Results

EPA Science Inventory

We applied regional SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) models to estimate status and trends of potential nitrogen loads to estuaries of the conterminous United States. The original Regional SPARROW models predict average detrended loads by source ...

Metamodeling Techniques to Aid in the Aggregation Process of Large Hierarchical Simulation Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-08-01

Level Outputs Campaign Level Model Campaign Level Outputs Aggregation Metamodeling Complexity (Spatial, Temporal, etc.) Others? Apply VRT (type......reduction, are called variance reduction techniques ( VRT ) [Law, 2006]. The implementation of some type of VRT can prove to be a very valuable tool

Remote Sensing Information Science Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clarke, Keith C.; Scepan, Joseph; Hemphill, Jeffrey; Herold, Martin; Husak, Gregory; Kline, Karen; Knight, Kevin

2002-01-01

This document is the final report summarizing research conducted by the Remote Sensing Research Unit, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara under National Aeronautics and Space Administration Research Grant NAG5-10457. This document describes work performed during the period of 1 March 2001 thorough 30 September 2002. This report includes a survey of research proposed and performed within RSRU and the UCSB Geography Department during the past 25 years. A broad suite of RSRU research conducted under NAG5-10457 is also described under themes of Applied Research Activities and Information Science Research. This research includes: 1. NASA ESA Research Grant Performance Metrics Reporting. 2. Global Data Set Thematic Accuracy Analysis. 3. ISCGM/Global Map Project Support. 4. Cooperative International Activities. 5. User Model Study of Global Environmental Data Sets. 6. Global Spatial Data Infrastructure. 7. CIESIN Collaboration. 8. On the Value of Coordinating Landsat Operations. 10. The California Marine Protected Areas Database: Compilation and Accuracy Issues. 11. Assessing Landslide Hazard Over a 130-Year Period for La Conchita, California Remote Sensing and Spatial Metrics for Applied Urban Area Analysis, including: (1) IKONOS Data Processing for Urban Analysis. (2) Image Segmentation and Object Oriented Classification. (3) Spectral Properties of Urban Materials. (4) Spatial Scale in Urban Mapping. (5) Variable Scale Spatial and Temporal Urban Growth Signatures. (6) Interpretation and Verification of SLEUTH Modeling Results. (7) Spatial Land Cover Pattern Analysis for Representing Urban Land Use and Socioeconomic Structures. 12. Colorado River Flood Plain Remote Sensing Study Support. 13. African Rainfall Modeling and Assessment. 14. Remote Sensing and GIS Integration.

Coupling a three-dimensional subsurface flow model with a land surface model to simulate stream-aquifer-land interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, M.; Bisht, G.; Zhou, T.; Chen, X.; Dai, H.; Hammond, G. E.; Riley, W. J.; Downs, J.; Liu, Y.; Zachara, J. M.

2016-12-01

A fully coupled three-dimensional surface and subsurface land model is developed and applied to a site along the Columbia River to simulate three-way interactions among river water, groundwater, and land surface processes. The model features the coupling of the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) and a massively-parallel multi-physics reactive tranport model (PFLOTRAN). The coupled model (CLM-PFLOTRAN) is applied to a 400m×400m study domain instrumented with groundwater monitoring wells in the Hanford 300 Area along the Columbia River. CLM-PFLOTRAN simulations are performed at three different spatial resolutions over the period 2011-2015 to evaluate the impact of spatial resolution on simulated variables. To demonstrate the difference in model simulations with and without lateral subsurface flow, a vertical-only CLM-PFLOTRAN simulation is also conducted for comparison. Results show that the coupled model is skillful in simulating stream-aquifer interactions, and the land-surface energy partitioning can be strongly modulated by groundwater-river water interactions in high water years due to increased soil moisture availability caused by elevated groundwater table. In addition, spatial resolution does not seem to impact the land surface energy flux simulations, although it is a key factor for accurately estimating the mass exchange rates at the boundaries and associated biogeochemical reactions in the aquifer. The coupled model developed in this study establishes a solid foundation for understanding co-evolution of hydrology and biogeochemistry along the river corridors under historical and future hydro-climate changes.

A smoothed stochastic earthquake rate model considering seismicity and fault moment release for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiemer, S.; Woessner, J.; Basili, R.; Danciu, L.; Giardini, D.; Wiemer, S.

2014-08-01

We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project `Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe' (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE's area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model's forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10-20 yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European region.

Assimilation of Spatially Sparse In Situ Soil Moisture Networks into a Continuous Model Domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruber, A.; Crow, W. T.; Dorigo, W. A.

2018-02-01

Growth in the availability of near-real-time soil moisture observations from ground-based networks has spurred interest in the assimilation of these observations into land surface models via a two-dimensional data assimilation system. However, the design of such systems is currently hampered by our ignorance concerning the spatial structure of error afflicting ground and model-based soil moisture estimates. Here we apply newly developed triple collocation techniques to provide the spatial error information required to fully parameterize a two-dimensional (2-D) data assimilation system designed to assimilate spatially sparse observations acquired from existing ground-based soil moisture networks into a spatially continuous Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) model for operational agricultural drought monitoring. Over the contiguous United States (CONUS), the posterior uncertainty of surface soil moisture estimates associated with this 2-D system is compared to that obtained from the 1-D assimilation of remote sensing retrievals to assess the value of ground-based observations to constrain a surface soil moisture analysis. Results demonstrate that a fourfold increase in existing CONUS ground station density is needed for ground network observations to provide a level of skill comparable to that provided by existing satellite-based surface soil moisture retrievals.

Inferring Spatial Variations of Microstructural Properties from Macroscopic Mechanical Response

PubMed Central

Liu, Tengxiao; Hall, Timothy J.; Barbone, Paul E.; Oberai, Assad A.

2016-01-01

Disease alters tissue microstructure, which in turn affects the macroscopic mechanical properties of tissue. In elasticity imaging, the macroscopic response is measured and is used to infer the spatial distribution of the elastic constitutive parameters. When an empirical constitutive model is used these parameters cannot be linked to the microstructure. However, when the constitutive model is derived from a microstructural representation of the material, it allows for the possibility of inferring the local averages of the spatial distribution of the microstructural parameters. This idea forms the basis of this study. In particular, we first derive a constitutive model by homogenizing the mechanical response of a network of elastic, tortuous fibers. Thereafter, we use this model in an inverse problem to determine the spatial distribution of the microstructural parameters. We solve the inverse problem as a constrained minimization problem, and develop efficient methods for solving it. We apply these methods to displacement fields obtained by deforming gelatin-agar co-gels, and determine the spatial distribution of agar concentration and fiber tortuosity, thereby demonstrating that it is possible to image local averages of microstructural parameters from macroscopic measurements of deformation. PMID:27655420

Identification and Correction of Additive and Multiplicative Spatial Biases in Experimental High-Throughput Screening.

PubMed

Mazoure, Bogdan; Caraus, Iurie; Nadon, Robert; Makarenkov, Vladimir

2018-06-01

Data generated by high-throughput screening (HTS) technologies are prone to spatial bias. Traditionally, bias correction methods used in HTS assume either a simple additive or, more recently, a simple multiplicative spatial bias model. These models do not, however, always provide an accurate correction of measurements in wells located at the intersection of rows and columns affected by spatial bias. The measurements in these wells depend on the nature of interaction between the involved biases. Here, we propose two novel additive and two novel multiplicative spatial bias models accounting for different types of bias interactions. We describe a statistical procedure that allows for detecting and removing different types of additive and multiplicative spatial biases from multiwell plates. We show how this procedure can be applied by analyzing data generated by the four HTS technologies (homogeneous, microorganism, cell-based, and gene expression HTS), the three high-content screening (HCS) technologies (area, intensity, and cell-count HCS), and the only small-molecule microarray technology available in the ChemBank small-molecule screening database. The proposed methods are included in the AssayCorrector program, implemented in R, and available on CRAN.

Optimization of Land Use Suitability for Agriculture Using Integrated Geospatial Model and Genetic Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansor, S. B.; Pormanafi, S.; Mahmud, A. R. B.; Pirasteh, S.

2012-08-01

In this study, a geospatial model for land use allocation was developed from the view of simulating the biological autonomous adaptability to environment and the infrastructural preference. The model was developed based on multi-agent genetic algorithm. The model was customized to accommodate the constraint set for the study area, namely the resource saving and environmental-friendly. The model was then applied to solve the practical multi-objective spatial optimization allocation problems of land use in the core region of Menderjan Basin in Iran. The first task was to study the dominant crops and economic suitability evaluation of land. Second task was to determine the fitness function for the genetic algorithms. The third objective was to optimize the land use map using economical benefits. The results has indicated that the proposed model has much better performance for solving complex multi-objective spatial optimization allocation problems and it is a promising method for generating land use alternatives for further consideration in spatial decision-making.

Valid approximation of spatially distributed grain size distributions - A priori information encoded to a feedforward network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berthold, T.; Milbradt, P.; Berkhahn, V.

2018-04-01

This paper presents a model for the approximation of multiple, spatially distributed grain size distributions based on a feedforward neural network. Since a classical feedforward network does not guarantee to produce valid cumulative distribution functions, a priori information is incor porated into the model by applying weight and architecture constraints. The model is derived in two steps. First, a model is presented that is able to produce a valid distribution function for a single sediment sample. Although initially developed for sediment samples, the model is not limited in its application; it can also be used to approximate any other multimodal continuous distribution function. In the second part, the network is extended in order to capture the spatial variation of the sediment samples that have been obtained from 48 locations in the investigation area. Results show that the model provides an adequate approximation of grain size distributions, satisfying the requirements of a cumulative distribution function.

Statistical modeling of landslide hazard using GIS

Treesearch

Peter V. Gorsevski; Randy B. Foltz; Paul E. Gessler; Terrance W. Cundy

2001-01-01

A model for spatial prediction of landslide hazard was applied to a watershed affected by landslide events that occurred during the winter of 1995-96, following heavy rains, and snowmelt. Digital elevation data with 22.86 m x 22.86 m resolution was used for deriving topographic attributes used for modeling. The model is based on the combination of logistic regression...

Patentability aspects of computational cancer models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lishchuk, Iryna

2017-07-01

Multiscale cancer models, implemented in silico, simulate tumor progression at various spatial and temporal scales. Having the innovative substance and possessing the potential of being applied as decision support tools in clinical practice, patenting and obtaining patent rights in cancer models seems prima facie possible. What legal hurdles the cancer models need to overcome for being patented we inquire from this paper.

Spatial heterogeneity of leaf area index across scales from simulation and remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichenau, Tim G.; Korres, Wolfgang; Montzka, Carsten; Schneider, Karl

2016-04-01

Leaf area index (LAI, single sided leaf area per ground area) influences mass and energy exchange of vegetated surfaces. Therefore LAI is an input variable for many land surface schemes of coupled large scale models, which do not simulate LAI. Since these models typically run on rather coarse resolution grids, LAI is often inferred from coarse resolution remote sensing. However, especially in agriculturally used areas, a grid cell of these products often covers more than a single land-use. In that case, the given LAI does not apply to any single land-use. Therefore, the overall spatial heterogeneity in these datasets differs from that on resolutions high enough to distinguish areas with differing land-use. Detailed process-based plant growth models simulate LAI for separate plant functional types or specific species. However, limited availability of observations causes reduced spatial heterogeneity of model input data (soil, weather, land-use). Since LAI is strongly heterogeneous in space and time and since processes depend on LAI in a nonlinear way, a correct representation of LAI spatial heterogeneity is also desirable on coarse resolutions. The current study assesses this issue by comparing the spatial heterogeneity of LAI from remote sensing (RapidEye) and process-based simulations (DANUBIA simulation system) across scales. Spatial heterogeneity is assessed by analyzing LAI frequency distributions (spatial variability) and semivariograms (spatial structure). Test case is the arable land in the fertile loess plain of the Rur catchment near the Germany-Netherlands border.

Assessing Local Model Adequacy in Bayesian Hierarchical Models Using the Partitioned Deviance Information Criterion

PubMed Central

Wheeler, David C.; Hickson, DeMarc A.; Waller, Lance A.

2010-01-01

Many diagnostic tools and goodness-of-fit measures, such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian deviance information criterion (DIC), are available to evaluate the overall adequacy of linear regression models. In addition, visually assessing adequacy in models has become an essential part of any regression analysis. In this paper, we focus on a spatial consideration of the local DIC measure for model selection and goodness-of-fit evaluation. We use a partitioning of the DIC into the local DIC, leverage, and deviance residuals to assess local model fit and influence for both individual observations and groups of observations in a Bayesian framework. We use visualization of the local DIC and differences in local DIC between models to assist in model selection and to visualize the global and local impacts of adding covariates or model parameters. We demonstrate the utility of the local DIC in assessing model adequacy using HIV prevalence data from pregnant women in the Butare province of Rwanda during 1989-1993 using a range of linear model specifications, from global effects only to spatially varying coefficient models, and a set of covariates related to sexual behavior. Results of applying the diagnostic visualization approach include more refined model selection and greater understanding of the models as applied to the data. PMID:21243121

Considering spatial heterogeneity in the distributed lag non-linear model when analyzing spatiotemporal data.

PubMed

Chien, Lung-Chang; Guo, Yuming; Li, Xiao; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2018-01-01

The distributed lag non-linear (DLNM) model has been frequently used in time series environmental health research. However, its functionality for assessing spatial heterogeneity is still restricted, especially in analyzing spatiotemporal data. This study proposed a solution to take a spatial function into account in the DLNM, and compared the influence with and without considering spatial heterogeneity in a case study. This research applied the DLNM to investigate non-linear lag effect up to 7 days in a case study about the spatiotemporal impact of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) on preschool children's acute respiratory infection in 41 districts of northern Taiwan during 2005 to 2007. We applied two spatiotemporal methods to impute missing air pollutant data, and included the Markov random fields to analyze district boundary data in the DLNM. When analyzing the original data without a spatial function, the overall PM 2.5 effect accumulated from all lag-specific effects had a slight variation at smaller PM 2.5 measurements, but eventually decreased to relative risk significantly <1 when PM 2.5 increased. While analyzing spatiotemporal imputed data without a spatial function, the overall PM 2.5 effect did not decrease but increased in monotone as PM 2.5 increased over 20 μg/m 3 . After adding a spatial function in the DLNM, spatiotemporal imputed data conducted similar results compared with the overall effect from the original data. Moreover, the spatial function showed a clear and uneven pattern in Taipei, revealing that preschool children living in 31 districts of Taipei were vulnerable to acute respiratory infection. Our findings suggest the necessity of including a spatial function in the DLNM to make a spatiotemporal analysis available and to conduct more reliable and explainable research. This study also revealed the analytical impact if spatial heterogeneity is ignored.

Failure criterion for materials with spatially correlated mechanical properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faillettaz, J.; Or, D.

2015-03-01

The role of spatially correlated mechanical elements in the failure behavior of heterogeneous materials represented by fiber bundle models (FBMs) was evaluated systematically for different load redistribution rules. Increasing the range of spatial correlation for FBMs with local load sharing is marked by a transition from ductilelike failure characteristics into brittlelike failure. The study identified a global failure criterion based on macroscopic properties (external load and cumulative damage) that is independent of spatial correlation or load redistribution rules. This general metric could be applied to assess the mechanical stability of complex and heterogeneous systems and thus provide an important component for early warning of a class of geophysical ruptures.

Technical Note: Atmospheric CO2 inversions on the mesoscale using data-driven prior uncertainties: methodology and system evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kountouris, Panagiotis; Gerbig, Christoph; Rödenbeck, Christian; Karstens, Ute; Koch, Thomas Frank; Heimann, Martin

2018-03-01

Atmospheric inversions are widely used in the optimization of surface carbon fluxes on a regional scale using information from atmospheric CO2 dry mole fractions. In many studies the prior flux uncertainty applied to the inversion schemes does not directly reflect the true flux uncertainties but is used to regularize the inverse problem. Here, we aim to implement an inversion scheme using the Jena inversion system and applying a prior flux error structure derived from a model-data residual analysis using high spatial and temporal resolution over a full year period in the European domain. We analyzed the performance of the inversion system with a synthetic experiment, in which the flux constraint is derived following the same residual analysis but applied to the model-model mismatch. The synthetic study showed a quite good agreement between posterior and true fluxes on European, country, annual and monthly scales. Posterior monthly and country-aggregated fluxes improved their correlation coefficient with the known truth by 7 % compared to the prior estimates when compared to the reference, with a mean correlation of 0.92. The ratio of the SD between the posterior and reference and between the prior and reference was also reduced by 33 % with a mean value of 1.15. We identified temporal and spatial scales on which the inversion system maximizes the derived information; monthly temporal scales at around 200 km spatial resolution seem to maximize the information gain.

A comparative analysis of two highly spatially resolved European atmospheric emission inventories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, J.; Guevara, M.; Baldasano, J. M.; Tchepel, O.; Schaap, M.; Miranda, A. I.; Borrego, C.

2013-08-01

A reliable emissions inventory is highly important for air quality modelling applications, especially at regional or local scales, which require high resolutions. Consequently, higher resolution emission inventories have been developed that are suitable for regional air quality modelling. This research performs an inter-comparative analysis of different spatial disaggregation methodologies of atmospheric emission inventories. This study is based on two different European emission inventories with different spatial resolutions: 1) the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) inventory and 2) an emission inventory developed by the TNO (Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research). These two emission inventories were converted into three distinct gridded emission datasets as follows: (i) the EMEP emission inventory was disaggregated by area (EMEParea) and (ii) following a more complex methodology (HERMES-DIS - High-Elective Resolution Modelling Emissions System - DISaggregation module) to understand and evaluate the influence of different disaggregation methods; and (iii) the TNO gridded emissions, which are based on different emission data sources and different disaggregation methods. A predefined common grid with a spatial resolution of 12 × 12 km2 was used to compare the three datasets spatially. The inter-comparative analysis was performed by source sector (SNAP - Selected Nomenclature for Air Pollution) with emission totals for selected pollutants. It included the computation of difference maps (to focus on the spatial variability of emission differences) and a linear regression analysis to calculate the coefficients of determination and to quantitatively measure differences. From the spatial analysis, greater differences were found for residential/commercial combustion (SNAP02), solvent use (SNAP06) and road transport (SNAP07). These findings were related to the different spatial disaggregation that was conducted by the TNO and HERMES-DIS for the first two sectors and to the distinct data sources that were used by the TNO and HERMES-DIS for road transport. Regarding the regression analysis, the greatest correlation occurred between the EMEParea and HERMES-DIS because the latter is derived from the first, which does not occur for the TNO emissions. The greatest correlations were encountered for agriculture NH3 emissions, due to the common use of the CORINE Land Cover database for disaggregation. The point source emissions (energy industries, industrial processes, industrial combustion and extraction/distribution of fossil fuels) resulted in the lowest coefficients of determination. The spatial variability of SOx differed among the emissions that were obtained from the different disaggregation methods. In conclusion, HERMES-DIS and TNO are two distinct emission inventories, both very well discretized and detailed, suitable for air quality modelling. However, the different databases and distinct disaggregation methodologies that were used certainly result in different spatial emission patterns. This fact should be considered when applying regional atmospheric chemical transport models. Future work will focus on the evaluation of air quality models performance and sensitivity to these spatial discrepancies in emission inventories. Air quality modelling will benefit from the availability of appropriate resolution, consistent and reliable emission inventories.

Modelling mass and heat transfer in nano-based cancer hyperthermia.

PubMed

Nabil, M; Decuzzi, P; Zunino, P

2015-10-01

We derive a sophisticated mathematical model for coupled heat and mass transport in the tumour microenvironment and we apply it to study nanoparticle delivery and hyperthermic treatment of cancer. The model has the unique ability of combining the following features: (i) realistic vasculature; (ii) coupled capillary and interstitial flow; (iii) coupled capillary and interstitial mass transfer applied to nanoparticles; and (iv) coupled capillary and interstitial heat transfer, which are the fundamental mechanisms governing nano-based hyperthermic treatment. This is an improvement with respect to previous modelling approaches, where the effect of blood perfusion on heat transfer is modelled in a spatially averaged form. We analyse the time evolution and the spatial distribution of particles and temperature in a tumour mass treated with superparamagnetic nanoparticles excited by an alternating magnetic field. By means of numerical experiments, we synthesize scaling laws that illustrate how nano-based hyperthermia depends on tumour size and vascularity. In particular, we identify two distinct mechanisms that regulate the distribution of particle and temperature, which are characterized by perfusion and diffusion, respectively.

Hemispheric differences in the voluntary control of spatial attention: direct evidence for a right-hemispheric dominance within frontal cortex.

PubMed

Duecker, Felix; Formisano, Elia; Sack, Alexander T

2013-08-01

Lesion studies in neglect patients have inspired two competing models of spatial attention control, namely, Heilman's "hemispatial" theory and Kinsbourne's "opponent processor" model. Both assume a functional asymmetry between the two hemispheres but propose very different mechanisms. Neuroimaging studies have identified a bilateral dorsal frontoparietal network underlying voluntary shifts of spatial attention. However, lateralization of attentional processes within this network has not been consistently reported. In the current study, we aimed to provide direct evidence concerning the functional asymmetry of the right and left FEF during voluntary shifts of spatial attention. To this end, we applied fMRI-guided neuronavigation to disrupt individual FEF activation foci with a longer-lasting inhibitory patterned TMS protocol followed by a spatial cueing task. Our results indicate that right FEF stimulation impaired the ability of shifting spatial attention toward both hemifields, whereas the effects of left FEF stimulation were limited to the contralateral hemifield. These results provide strong direct evidence for right-hemispheric dominance in spatial attention within frontal cortex supporting Heilman's "hemispatial" theory. This complements previous TMS studies that generally conform to Kinsbourne's "opponent processor" model after disruption of parietal cortex, and we therefore propose that both theories are not mutually exclusive.

Spatially structured superinfection and the evolution of disease virulence.

PubMed

Caraco, Thomas; Glavanakov, Stephan; Li, Shengua; Maniatty, William; Szymanski, Boleslaw K

2006-06-01

When pathogen strains differing in virulence compete for hosts, spatial structuring of disease transmission can govern both evolved levels of virulence and patterns in strain coexistence. We develop a spatially detailed model of superinfection, a form of contest competition between pathogen strains; the probability of superinfection depends explicitly on the difference in levels of virulence. We apply methods of adaptive dynamics to address the interplay of spatial dynamics and evolution. The mean-field approximation predicts evolution to criticality; any small increase in virulence capable of dynamical persistence is favored. Both pair approximation and simulation of the detailed model indicate that spatial structure constrains disease virulence. Increased spatial clustering reduces the maximal virulence capable of single-strain persistence and, more importantly, reduces the convergent-stable virulence level under strain competition. The spatially detailed model predicts that increasing the probability of superinfection, for given difference in virulence, increases the likelihood of between-strain coexistence. When strains differing in virulence can coexist ecologically, our results may suggest policies for managing diseases with localized transmission. Comparing equilibrium densities from the pair approximation, we find that introducing a more virulent strain into a host population infected by a less virulent strain can sometimes reduce total host mortality and increase global host density.

Evaluation of Spatially Targeted Strategies to Control Non-Domiciliated Triatoma dimidiata Vector of Chagas Disease

PubMed Central

Barbu, Corentin; Dumonteil, Eric; Gourbière, Sébastien

2011-01-01

Background Chagas disease is a major neglected tropical disease with deep socio-economical effects throughout Central and South America. Vector control programs have consistently reduced domestic populations of triatomine vectors, but non-domiciliated vectors still have to be controlled efficiently. Designing control strategies targeting these vectors is challenging, as it requires a quantitative description of the spatio-temporal dynamics of village infestation, which can only be gained from combinations of extensive field studies and spatial population dynamic modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings A spatially explicit population dynamic model was combined with a two-year field study of T. dimidiata infestation dynamics in the village of Teya, Mexico. The parameterized model fitted and predicted accurately both intra-annual variation and the spatial gradient in vector abundance. Five different control strategies were then applied in concentric rings to mimic spatial design targeting the periphery of the village, where vectors were most abundant. Indoor insecticide spraying and insect screens reduced vector abundance by up to 80% (when applied to the whole village), and half of this effect was obtained when control was applied only to the 33% of households closest to the village periphery. Peri-domicile cleaning was able to eliminate up to 60% of the vectors, but at the periphery of the village it has a low effect, as it is ineffective against sylvatic insects. The use of lethal traps and the management of house attractiveness provided similar levels of control. However this required either house attractiveness to be null, or ≥5 lethal traps, at least as attractive as houses, to be installed in each household. Conclusion/Significance Insecticide and insect screens used in houses at the periphery of the village can contribute to reduce house infestation in more central untreated zones. However, this beneficial effect remains insufficient to allow for a unique spatially targeted strategy to offer protection to all households. Most efficiently, control should combine the use of insect screens in outer zones to reduce infestation by both sylvatic and peri-domiciliated vectors, and cleaning of peri-domicile in the centre of the village where sylvatic vectors are absent. The design of such spatially mixed strategies of control offers a promising avenue to reduce the economic cost associated with the control of non-domiciliated vectors. PMID:21610862

A theory of forest dynamics: Spatially explicit models and issues of scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pacala, S.

1990-01-01

Good progress has been made in the first year of DOE grant (number sign) FG02-90ER60933. The purpose of the project is to develop and investigate models of forest dynamics that apply across a range of spatial scales. The grant is one third of a three-part project. The second third was funded by the NSF this year and is intended to provide the empirical data necessary to calibrate and test small-scale (less than or equal to 1000 ha) models. The final third was also funded this year (NASA), and will provide data to calibrate and test the large-scale features of the models.

Parameter Estimation for a Model of Space-Time Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, James A.; Karr, Alan F.

1985-08-01

In this paper, parameter estimation procedures, based on data from a network of rainfall gages, are developed for a class of space-time rainfall models. The models, which are designed to represent the spatial distribution of daily rainfall, have three components, one that governs the temporal occurrence of storms, a second that distributes rain cells spatially for a given storm, and a third that determines the rainfall pattern within a rain cell. Maximum likelihood and method of moments procedures are developed. We illustrate that limitations on model structure are imposed by restricting data sources to rain gage networks. The estimation procedures are applied to a 240-mi2 (621 km2) catchment in the Potomac River basin.

Fragmentation of urban forms and the environmental consequences: results from a high-spatial resolution model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, U. W.; Wang, Z. S.

2008-10-01

Each city has its unique urban form. The importance of urban form on sustainable development has been recognized in recent years. Traditionally, air quality modelling in a city is in a mesoscale with grid resolution of kilometers, regardless of its urban form. This paper introduces a GIS-based air quality and noise model system developed to study the built environment of highly compact urban forms. Compared with traditional mesoscale air quality model system, the present model system has a higher spatial resolution down to individual buildings along both sides of the street. Applying the developed model system in the Macao Peninsula with highly compact urban forms, the average spatial resolution of input and output data is as high as 174 receptor points per km2. Based on this input/output dataset with a high spatial resolution, this study shows that even the highly compact urban forms can be fragmented into a very small geographic scale of less than 3 km2. This is due to the significant temporal variation of urban development. The variation of urban form in each fragment in turn affects air dispersion, traffic condition, and thus air quality and noise in a measurable scale.

Spatial transferability of habitat suitability models of Nephrops norvegicus among fished areas in the Northeast Atlantic: sufficiently stable for marine resource conservation?

PubMed

Lauria, Valentina; Power, Anne Marie; Lordan, Colm; Weetman, Adrian; Johnson, Mark P

2015-01-01

Knowledge of the spatial distribution and habitat associations of species in relation to the environment is essential for their management and conservation. Habitat suitability models are useful in quantifying species-environment relationships and predicting species distribution patterns. Little is known, however, about the stability and performance of habitat suitability models when projected into new areas (spatial transferability) and how this can inform resource management. The aims of this study were to model habitat suitability of Norway lobster (Nephrops norvegicus) in five fished areas of the Northeast Atlantic (Aran ground, Irish Sea, Celtic Sea, Scotland Inshore and Fladen ground), and to test for spatial transferability of habitat models among multiple regions. Nephrops burrow density was modelled using generalised additive models (GAMs) with predictors selected from four environmental variables (depth, slope, sediment and rugosity). Models were evaluated and tested for spatial transferability among areas. The optimum models (lowest AICc) for different areas always included depth and sediment as predictors. Burrow densities were generally greater at depth and in finer sediments, but relationships for individual areas were sometimes more complex. Aside from an inclusion of depth and sediment, the optimum models differed between fished areas. When it came to tests of spatial transferability, however, most of the models were able to predict Nephrops density in other areas. Furthermore, transferability was not dependent on use of the optimum models since competing models were also able to achieve a similar level of transferability to new areas. A degree of decoupling between model 'fitting' performance and spatial transferability supports the use of simpler models when extrapolating habitat suitability maps to different areas. Differences in the form and performance of models from different areas may supply further information on the processes shaping species' distributions. Spatial transferability of habitat models can be used to support fishery management when the information is scarce but caution needs to be applied when making inference and a multi-area transferability analysis is preferable to bilateral comparisons between areas.

A comparative verification of high resolution precipitation forecasts using model output statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Plas, Emiel; Schmeits, Maurice; Hooijman, Nicolien; Kok, Kees

2017-04-01

Verification of localized events such as precipitation has become even more challenging with the advent of high-resolution meso-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP). The realism of a forecast suggests that it should compare well against precipitation radar imagery with similar resolution, both spatially and temporally. Spatial verification methods solve some of the representativity issues that point verification gives rise to. In this study a verification strategy based on model output statistics is applied that aims to address both double penalty and resolution effects that are inherent to comparisons of NWP models with different resolutions. Using predictors based on spatial precipitation patterns around a set of stations, an extended logistic regression (ELR) equation is deduced, leading to a probability forecast distribution of precipitation for each NWP model, analysis and lead time. The ELR equations are derived for predictands based on areal calibrated radar precipitation and SYNOP observations. The aim is to extract maximum information from a series of precipitation forecasts, like a trained forecaster would. The method is applied to the non-hydrostatic model Harmonie (2.5 km resolution), Hirlam (11 km resolution) and the ECMWF model (16 km resolution), overall yielding similar Brier skill scores for the 3 post-processed models, but larger differences for individual lead times. Besides, the Fractions Skill Score is computed using the 3 deterministic forecasts, showing somewhat better skill for the Harmonie model. In other words, despite the realism of Harmonie precipitation forecasts, they only perform similarly or somewhat better than precipitation forecasts from the 2 lower resolution models, at least in the Netherlands.

PBSM3D: A finite volume, scalar-transport blowing snow model for use with variable resolution meshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, C.; Wayand, N. E.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wheater, H. S.; Spiteri, R. J.

2017-12-01

Blowing snow redistribution results in heterogeneous snowcovers that are ubiquitous in cold, windswept environments. Capturing this spatial and temporal variability is important for melt and runoff simulations. Point scale blowing snow transport models are difficult to apply in fully distributed hydrological models due to landscape heterogeneity and complex wind fields. Many existing distributed snow transport models have empirical wind flow and/or simplified wind direction algorithms that perform poorly in calculating snow redistribution where there are divergent wind flows, sharp topography, and over large spatial extents. Herein, a steady-state scalar transport model is discretized using the finite volume method (FVM), using parameterizations from the Prairie Blowing Snow Model (PBSM). PBSM has been applied in hydrological response units and grids to prairie, arctic, glacier, and alpine terrain and shows a good capability to represent snow redistribution over complex terrain. The FVM discretization takes advantage of the variable resolution mesh in the Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) to ensure efficient calculations over small and large spatial extents. Variable resolution unstructured meshes preserve surface heterogeneity but result in fewer computational elements versus high-resolution structured (raster) grids. Snowpack, soil moisture, and streamflow observations were used to evaluate CHM-modelled outputs in a sub-arctic and an alpine basin. Newly developed remotely sensed snowcover indices allowed for validation over large basins. CHM simulations of snow hydrology were improved by inclusion of the blowing snow model. The results demonstrate the key role of snow transport processes in creating pre-melt snowcover heterogeneity and therefore governing post-melt soil moisture and runoff generation dynamics.

Spatial analysis of agri-environmental policy uptake and expenditure in Scotland.

PubMed

Yang, Anastasia L; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Wilson, Ronald M; Haggett, Claire

2014-01-15

Agri-environment is one of the most widely supported rural development policy measures in Scotland in terms of number of participants and expenditure. It comprises 69 management options and sub-options that are delivered primarily through the competitive 'Rural Priorities scheme'. Understanding the spatial determinants of uptake and expenditure would assist policy-makers in guiding future policy targeting efforts for the rural environment. This study is unique in examining the spatial dependency and determinants of Scotland's agri-environmental measures and categorised options uptake and payments at the parish level. Spatial econometrics is applied to test the influence of 40 explanatory variables on farming characteristics, land capability, designated sites, accessibility and population. Results identified spatial dependency for each of the dependent variables, which supported the use of spatially-explicit models. The goodness of fit of the spatial models was better than for the aspatial regression models. There was also notable improvement in the models for participation compared with the models for expenditure. Furthermore a range of expected explanatory variables were found to be significant and varied according to the dependent variable used. The majority of models for both payment and uptake showed a significant positive relationship with SSSI (Sites of Special Scientific Interest), which are designated sites prioritised in Scottish policy. These results indicate that environmental targeting efforts by the government for AEP uptake in designated sites can be effective. However habitats outside of SSSI, termed here the 'wider countryside' may not be sufficiently competitive to receive funding in the current policy system. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implementation of marine spatial planning in shellfish aquaculture management: modeling studies in a Norwegian fjord.

PubMed

Filgueira, Ramon; Grant, Jon; Strand, Øivind

2014-06-01

Shellfish carrying capacity is determined by the interaction of a cultured species with its ecosystem, which is strongly influenced by hydrodynamics. Water circulation controls the exchange of matter between farms and the adjacent areas, which in turn establishes the nutrient supply that supports phytoplankton populations. The complexity of water circulation makes necessary the use of hydrodynamic models with detailed spatial resolution in carrying capacity estimations. This detailed spatial resolution also allows for the study of processes that depend on specific spatial arrangements, e.g., the most suitable location to place farms, which is crucial for marine spatial planning, and consequently for decision support systems. In the present study, a fully spatial physical-biogeochemical model has been combined with scenario building and optimization techniques as a proof of concept of the use of ecosystem modeling as an objective tool to inform marine spatial planning. The object of this exercise was to generate objective knowledge based on an ecosystem approach to establish new mussel aquaculture areas in a Norwegian fjord. Scenario building was used to determine the best location of a pump that can be used to bring nutrient-rich deep waters to the euphotic layer, increasing primary production, and consequently, carrying capacity for mussel cultivation. In addition, an optimization tool, parameter estimation (PEST), was applied to the optimal location and mussel standing stock biomass that maximize production, according to a preestablished carrying capacity criterion. Optimization tools allow us to make rational and transparent decisions to solve a well-defined question, decisions that are essential for policy makers. The outcomes of combining ecosystem models with scenario building and optimization facilitate planning based on an ecosystem approach, highlighting the capabilities of ecosystem modeling as a tool for marine spatial planning.

The Analytical Limits of Modeling Short Diffusion Timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradshaw, R. W.; Kent, A. J.

2016-12-01

Chemical and isotopic zoning in minerals is widely used to constrain the timescales of magmatic processes such as magma mixing and crystal residence, etc. via diffusion modeling. Forward modeling of diffusion relies on fitting diffusion profiles to measured compositional gradients. However, an individual measurement is essentially an average composition for a segment of the gradient defined by the spatial resolution of the analysis. Thus there is the potential for the analytical spatial resolution to limit the timescales that can be determined for an element of given diffusivity, particularly where the scale of the gradient approaches that of the measurement. Here we use a probabilistic modeling approach to investigate the effect of analytical spatial resolution on estimated timescales from diffusion modeling. Our method investigates how accurately the age of a synthetic diffusion profile can be obtained by modeling an "unknown" profile derived from discrete sampling of the synthetic compositional gradient at a given spatial resolution. We also include the effects of analytical uncertainty and the position of measurements relative to the diffusion gradient. We apply this method to the spatial resolutions of common microanalytical techniques (LA-ICP-MS, SIMS, EMP, NanoSIMS). Our results confirm that for a given diffusivity, higher spatial resolution gives access to shorter timescales, and that each analytical spacing has a minimum timescale, below which it overestimates the timescale. For example, for Ba diffusion in plagioclase at 750 °C timescales are accurate (within 20%) above 10, 100, 2,600, and 71,000 years at 0.3, 1, 5, and 25 mm spatial resolution, respectively. For Sr diffusion in plagioclase at 750 °C, timescales are accurate above 0.02, 0.2, 4, and 120 years at the same spatial resolutions. Our results highlight the importance of selecting appropriate analytical techniques to estimate accurate diffusion-based timescales.

SMART: A Spatially Explicit Bio-Economic Model for Assessing and Managing Demersal Fisheries, with an Application to Italian Trawlers in the Strait of Sicily

PubMed Central

Russo, Tommaso; Parisi, Antonio; Garofalo, Germana; Gristina, Michele; Cataudella, Stefano; Fiorentino, Fabio

2014-01-01

Management of catches, effort and exploitation pattern are considered the most effective measures to control fishing mortality and ultimately ensure productivity and sustainability of fisheries. Despite the growing concerns about the spatial dimension of fisheries, the distribution of resources and fishing effort in space is seldom considered in assessment and management processes. Here we propose SMART (Spatial MAnagement of demersal Resources for Trawl fisheries), a tool for assessing bio-economic feedback in different management scenarios. SMART combines information from different tasks gathered within the European Data Collection Framework on fisheries and is composed of: 1) spatial models of fishing effort, environmental characteristics and distribution of demersal resources; 2) an Artificial Neural Network which captures the relationships among these aspects in a spatially explicit way and uses them to predict resources abundances; 3) a deterministic module which analyzes the size structure of catches and the associated revenues, according to different spatially-based management scenarios. SMART is applied to demersal fishery in the Strait of Sicily, one of the most productive fisheries of the Mediterranean Sea. Three of the main target species are used as proxies for the whole range exploited by trawlers. After training, SMART is used to evaluate different management scenarios, including spatial closures, using a simulation approach that mimics the recent exploitation patterns. Results evidence good model performance, with a noteworthy coherence and reliability of outputs for the different components. Among others, the main finding is that a partial improvement in resource conditions can be achieved by means of nursery closures, even if the overall fishing effort in the area remains stable. Accordingly, a series of strategically designed areas of trawling closures could significantly improve the resource conditions of demersal fisheries in the Strait of Sicily, also supporting sustainable economic returns for fishermen if not applied simultaneously for different species. PMID:24465971

Modelling the perennial energy crop market: the role of spatial diffusion

PubMed Central

Alexander, Peter; Moran, Dominic; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Smith, Pete

2013-01-01

Biomass produced from energy crops, such as Miscanthus and short rotation coppice is expected to contribute to renewable energy targets, but the slower than anticipated development of the UK market implies the need for greater understanding of the factors that govern adoption. Here, we apply an agent-based model of the UK perennial energy crop market, including the contingent interaction of supply and demand, to understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of energy crop adoption. Results indicate that perennial energy crop supply will be between six and nine times lower than previously published, because of time lags in adoption arising from a spatial diffusion process. The model simulates time lags of at least 20 years, which is supported empirically by the analogue of oilseed rape adoption in the UK from the 1970s. This implies the need to account for time lags arising from spatial diffusion in evaluating land-use change, climate change (mitigation or adaptation) or the adoption of novel technologies. PMID:24026474

Modelling the perennial energy crop market: the role of spatial diffusion.

PubMed

Alexander, Peter; Moran, Dominic; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Smith, Pete

2013-11-06

Biomass produced from energy crops, such as Miscanthus and short rotation coppice is expected to contribute to renewable energy targets, but the slower than anticipated development of the UK market implies the need for greater understanding of the factors that govern adoption. Here, we apply an agent-based model of the UK perennial energy crop market, including the contingent interaction of supply and demand, to understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of energy crop adoption. Results indicate that perennial energy crop supply will be between six and nine times lower than previously published, because of time lags in adoption arising from a spatial diffusion process. The model simulates time lags of at least 20 years, which is supported empirically by the analogue of oilseed rape adoption in the UK from the 1970s. This implies the need to account for time lags arising from spatial diffusion in evaluating land-use change, climate change (mitigation or adaptation) or the adoption of novel technologies.

Impact of spatial proxies on the representation of bottom-up emission inventories: A satellite-based analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geng, Guannan; Zhang, Qiang; Martin, Randall V.; Lin, Jintai; Huo, Hong; Zheng, Bo; Wang, Siwen; He, Kebin

2017-03-01

Spatial proxies used in bottom-up emission inventories to derive the spatial distributions of emissions are usually empirical and involve additional levels of uncertainty. Although uncertainties in current emission inventories have been discussed extensively, uncertainties resulting from improper spatial proxies have rarely been evaluated. In this work, we investigate the impact of spatial proxies on the representation of gridded emissions by comparing six gridded NOx emission datasets over China developed from the same magnitude of emissions and different spatial proxies. GEOS-Chem-modeled tropospheric NO2 vertical columns simulated from different gridded emission inventories are compared with satellite-based columns. The results show that differences between modeled and satellite-based NO2 vertical columns are sensitive to the spatial proxies used in the gridded emission inventories. The total population density is less suitable for allocating NOx emissions than nighttime light data because population density tends to allocate more emissions to rural areas. Determining the exact locations of large emission sources could significantly strengthen the correlation between modeled and observed NO2 vertical columns. Using vehicle population and an updated road network for the on-road transport sector could substantially enhance urban emissions and improve the model performance. When further applying industrial gross domestic product (IGDP) values for the industrial sector, modeled NO2 vertical columns could better capture pollution hotspots in urban areas and exhibit the best performance of the six cases compared to satellite-based NO2 vertical columns (slope = 1.01 and R2 = 0. 85). This analysis provides a framework for information from satellite observations to inform bottom-up inventory development. In the future, more effort should be devoted to the representation of spatial proxies to improve spatial patterns in bottom-up emission inventories.

Using spatial capture–recapture to elucidate population processes and space-use in herpetological studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muñoz, David J.; Miller, David A.W.; Sutherland, Chris; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2016-01-01

The cryptic behavior and ecology of herpetofauna make estimating the impacts of environmental change on demography difficult; yet, the ability to measure demographic relationships is essential for elucidating mechanisms leading to the population declines reported for herpetofauna worldwide. Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) methods are well suited to standard herpetofauna monitoring approaches. Individually identifying animals and their locations allows accurate estimates of population densities and survival. Spatial capture–recapture methods also allow estimation of parameters describing space-use and movement, which generally are expensive or difficult to obtain using other methods. In this paper, we discuss the basic components of SCR models, the available software for conducting analyses, and the experimental designs based on common herpetological survey methods. We then apply SCR models to Red-backed Salamander (Plethodon cinereus), to determine differences in density, survival, dispersal, and space-use between adult male and female salamanders. By highlighting the capabilities of SCR, and its advantages compared to traditional methods, we hope to give herpetologists the resource they need to apply SCR in their own systems.

A dynamic landscape model for fish in the Everglades and its application to restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gaff, H.D.; DeAngelis, D.L.; Gross, L.J.; Salinas, R.; Shorrosh, M.

2000-01-01

A model (ALFISH) for fish functional groups in freshwater marshes of the greater Everglades area of southern Florida has been developed. Its main objective is to assess the spatial pattern of fish densities through time across freshwater marshes. This model has the capability of providing a dynamic measure of the spatially-explicit food resources available to wading birds. ALFISH simulates two functional groups, large and small fish, where the larger ones can prey on the small fish type. Both functional groups are size-structured. The marsh landscape is modeled as 500×500 m spatial cells on a grid across southern Florida. A hydrology model predicts water levels in the spatial cells on 5-day time steps. Fish populations spread across the marsh during flooded conditions and either retreat into refugia (alligator ponds), move to other spatial cells, or die if their cell dries out. ALFISH has been applied to the evaluation of alternative water regulation scenarios under the Central and South Florida Comprehensive Project Review Study. The objective of this Review Study is to compare alternative methods for restoring historical ecological conditions in southern Florida. ALFISH has provided information on which plans are most are likely to increase fish biomass and its availability to wading bird populations.

Building generalized tree mass/volume component models for improved estimation of forest stocks and utilization potential

Treesearch

David W. MacFarlane

2015-01-01

Accurately assessing forest biomass potential is contingent upon having accurate tree biomass models to translate data from forest inventories. Building generality into these models is especially important when they are to be applied over large spatial domains, such as regional, national and international scales. Here, new, generalized whole-tree mass / volume...

Spatial analysis of groundwater levels using Fuzzy Logic and geostatistical tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theodoridou, P. G.; Varouchakis, E. A.; Karatzas, G. P.

2017-12-01

The spatial variability evaluation of the water table of an aquifer provides useful information in water resources management plans. Geostatistical methods are often employed to map the free surface of an aquifer. In geostatistical analysis using Kriging techniques the selection of the optimal variogram is very important for the optimal method performance. This work compares three different criteria to assess the theoretical variogram that fits to the experimental one: the Least Squares Sum method, the Akaike Information Criterion and the Cressie's Indicator. Moreover, variable distance metrics such as the Euclidean, Minkowski, Manhattan, Canberra and Bray-Curtis are applied to calculate the distance between the observation and the prediction points, that affects both the variogram calculation and the Kriging estimator. A Fuzzy Logic System is then applied to define the appropriate neighbors for each estimation point used in the Kriging algorithm. The two criteria used during the Fuzzy Logic process are the distance between observation and estimation points and the groundwater level value at each observation point. The proposed techniques are applied to a data set of 250 hydraulic head measurements distributed over an alluvial aquifer. The analysis showed that the Power-law variogram model and Manhattan distance metric within ordinary kriging provide the best results when the comprehensive geostatistical analysis process is applied. On the other hand, the Fuzzy Logic approach leads to a Gaussian variogram model and significantly improves the estimation performance. The two different variogram models can be explained in terms of a fractional Brownian motion approach and of aquifer behavior at local scale. Finally, maps of hydraulic head spatial variability and of predictions uncertainty are constructed for the area with the two different approaches comparing their advantages and drawbacks.

Selecting Optimal Random Forest Predictive Models: A Case Study on Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Seabed Hardness

PubMed Central

Li, Jin; Tran, Maggie; Siwabessy, Justy

2016-01-01

Spatially continuous predictions of seabed hardness are important baseline environmental information for sustainable management of Australia’s marine jurisdiction. Seabed hardness is often inferred from multibeam backscatter data with unknown accuracy and can be inferred from underwater video footage at limited locations. In this study, we classified the seabed into four classes based on two new seabed hardness classification schemes (i.e., hard90 and hard70). We developed optimal predictive models to predict seabed hardness using random forest (RF) based on the point data of hardness classes and spatially continuous multibeam data. Five feature selection (FS) methods that are variable importance (VI), averaged variable importance (AVI), knowledge informed AVI (KIAVI), Boruta and regularized RF (RRF) were tested based on predictive accuracy. Effects of highly correlated, important and unimportant predictors on the accuracy of RF predictive models were examined. Finally, spatial predictions generated using the most accurate models were visually examined and analysed. This study confirmed that: 1) hard90 and hard70 are effective seabed hardness classification schemes; 2) seabed hardness of four classes can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy; 3) the typical approach used to pre-select predictive variables by excluding highly correlated variables needs to be re-examined; 4) the identification of the important and unimportant predictors provides useful guidelines for further improving predictive models; 5) FS methods select the most accurate predictive model(s) instead of the most parsimonious ones, and AVI and Boruta are recommended for future studies; and 6) RF is an effective modelling method with high predictive accuracy for multi-level categorical data and can be applied to ‘small p and large n’ problems in environmental sciences. Additionally, automated computational programs for AVI need to be developed to increase its computational efficiency and caution should be taken when applying filter FS methods in selecting predictive models. PMID:26890307

Selecting Optimal Random Forest Predictive Models: A Case Study on Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Seabed Hardness.

PubMed

Li, Jin; Tran, Maggie; Siwabessy, Justy

2016-01-01

Spatially continuous predictions of seabed hardness are important baseline environmental information for sustainable management of Australia's marine jurisdiction. Seabed hardness is often inferred from multibeam backscatter data with unknown accuracy and can be inferred from underwater video footage at limited locations. In this study, we classified the seabed into four classes based on two new seabed hardness classification schemes (i.e., hard90 and hard70). We developed optimal predictive models to predict seabed hardness using random forest (RF) based on the point data of hardness classes and spatially continuous multibeam data. Five feature selection (FS) methods that are variable importance (VI), averaged variable importance (AVI), knowledge informed AVI (KIAVI), Boruta and regularized RF (RRF) were tested based on predictive accuracy. Effects of highly correlated, important and unimportant predictors on the accuracy of RF predictive models were examined. Finally, spatial predictions generated using the most accurate models were visually examined and analysed. This study confirmed that: 1) hard90 and hard70 are effective seabed hardness classification schemes; 2) seabed hardness of four classes can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy; 3) the typical approach used to pre-select predictive variables by excluding highly correlated variables needs to be re-examined; 4) the identification of the important and unimportant predictors provides useful guidelines for further improving predictive models; 5) FS methods select the most accurate predictive model(s) instead of the most parsimonious ones, and AVI and Boruta are recommended for future studies; and 6) RF is an effective modelling method with high predictive accuracy for multi-level categorical data and can be applied to 'small p and large n' problems in environmental sciences. Additionally, automated computational programs for AVI need to be developed to increase its computational efficiency and caution should be taken when applying filter FS methods in selecting predictive models.

Review of applications for SIMDEUM, a stochastic drinking water demand model with a small temporal and spatial scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blokker, Mirjam; Agudelo-Vera, Claudia; Moerman, Andreas; van Thienen, Peter; Pieterse-Quirijns, Ilse

2017-04-01

Many researchers have developed drinking water demand models with various temporal and spatial scales. A limited number of models is available at a temporal scale of 1 s and a spatial scale of a single home. The reasons for building these models were described in the papers in which the models were introduced, along with a discussion on their potential applications. However, the predicted applications are seldom re-examined. SIMDEUM, a stochastic end-use model for drinking water demand, has often been applied in research and practice since it was developed. We are therefore re-examining its applications in this paper. SIMDEUM's original purpose was to calculate maximum demands in order to design self-cleaning networks. Yet, the model has been useful in many more applications. This paper gives an overview of the many fields of application for SIMDEUM and shows where this type of demand model is indispensable and where it has limited practical value. This overview also leads to an understanding of the requirements for demand models in various applications.

Development of 4D mathematical observer models for the task-based evaluation of gated myocardial perfusion SPECT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Taek-Soo; Frey, Eric C.; Tsui, Benjamin M. W.

2015-04-01

This paper presents two 4D mathematical observer models for the detection of motion defects in 4D gated medical images. Their performance was compared with results from human observers in detecting a regional motion abnormality in simulated 4D gated myocardial perfusion (MP) SPECT images. The first 4D mathematical observer model extends the conventional channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) based on a set of 2D spatial channels and the second is a proposed model that uses a set of 4D space-time channels. Simulated projection data were generated using the 4D NURBS-based cardiac-torso (NCAT) phantom with 16 gates/cardiac cycle. The activity distribution modelled uptake of 99mTc MIBI with normal perfusion and a regional wall motion defect. An analytical projector was used in the simulation and the filtered backprojection (FBP) algorithm was used in image reconstruction followed by spatial and temporal low-pass filtering with various cut-off frequencies. Then, we extracted 2D image slices from each time frame and reorganized them into a set of cine images. For the first model, we applied 2D spatial channels to the cine images and generated a set of feature vectors that were stacked for the images from different slices of the heart. The process was repeated for each of the 1,024 noise realizations, and CHO and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis methodologies were applied to the ensemble of the feature vectors to compute areas under the ROC curves (AUCs). For the second model, a set of 4D space-time channels was developed and applied to the sets of cine images to produce space-time feature vectors to which the CHO methodology was applied. The AUC values of the second model showed better agreement (Spearman’s rank correlation (SRC) coefficient = 0.8) to human observer results than those from the first model (SRC coefficient = 0.4). The agreement with human observers indicates the proposed 4D mathematical observer model provides a good predictor of the performance of human observers in detecting regional motion defects in 4D gated MP SPECT images. The result supports the use of the observer model in the optimization and evaluation of 4D image reconstruction and compensation methods for improving the detection of motion abnormalities in 4D gated MP SPECT images.

Exploring discrepancies between quantitative validation results and the geomorphic plausibility of statistical landslide susceptibility maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steger, Stefan; Brenning, Alexander; Bell, Rainer; Petschko, Helene; Glade, Thomas

2016-06-01

Empirical models are frequently applied to produce landslide susceptibility maps for large areas. Subsequent quantitative validation results are routinely used as the primary criteria to infer the validity and applicability of the final maps or to select one of several models. This study hypothesizes that such direct deductions can be misleading. The main objective was to explore discrepancies between the predictive performance of a landslide susceptibility model and the geomorphic plausibility of subsequent landslide susceptibility maps while a particular emphasis was placed on the influence of incomplete landslide inventories on modelling and validation results. The study was conducted within the Flysch Zone of Lower Austria (1,354 km2) which is known to be highly susceptible to landslides of the slide-type movement. Sixteen susceptibility models were generated by applying two statistical classifiers (logistic regression and generalized additive model) and two machine learning techniques (random forest and support vector machine) separately for two landslide inventories of differing completeness and two predictor sets. The results were validated quantitatively by estimating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) with single holdout and spatial cross-validation technique. The heuristic evaluation of the geomorphic plausibility of the final results was supported by findings of an exploratory data analysis, an estimation of odds ratios and an evaluation of the spatial structure of the final maps. The results showed that maps generated by different inventories, classifiers and predictors appeared differently while holdout validation revealed similar high predictive performances. Spatial cross-validation proved useful to expose spatially varying inconsistencies of the modelling results while additionally providing evidence for slightly overfitted machine learning-based models. However, the highest predictive performances were obtained for maps that explicitly expressed geomorphically implausible relationships indicating that the predictive performance of a model might be misleading in the case a predictor systematically relates to a spatially consistent bias of the inventory. Furthermore, we observed that random forest-based maps displayed spatial artifacts. The most plausible susceptibility map of the study area showed smooth prediction surfaces while the underlying model revealed a high predictive capability and was generated with an accurate landslide inventory and predictors that did not directly describe a bias. However, none of the presented models was found to be completely unbiased. This study showed that high predictive performances cannot be equated with a high plausibility and applicability of subsequent landslide susceptibility maps. We suggest that greater emphasis should be placed on identifying confounding factors and biases in landslide inventories. A joint discussion between modelers and decision makers of the spatial pattern of the final susceptibility maps in the field might increase their acceptance and applicability.

Research into the influence of spatial variability and scale on the parameterization of hydrological processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, Eric F.

1993-01-01

The objectives of the research were as follows: (1) Extend the Representative Elementary Area (RE) concept, first proposed and developed in Wood et al, (1988), to the water balance fluxes of the interstorm period (redistribution, evapotranspiration and baseflow) necessary for the analysis of long-term water balance processes. (2) Derive spatially averaged water balance model equations for spatially variable soil, topography and vegetation, over A RANGE OF CLIMATES. This is a necessary step in our goal to derive consistent hydrologic results up to GCM grid scales necessary for global climate modeling. (3) Apply the above macroscale water balance equations with remotely sensed data and begin to explore the feasibility of parameterizing the water balance constitutive equations at GCM grid scale.

A spectral-spatial-dynamic hierarchical Bayesian (SSD-HB) model for estimating soybean yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazama, Yoriko; Kujirai, Toshihiro

2014-10-01

A method called a "spectral-spatial-dynamic hierarchical-Bayesian (SSD-HB) model," which can deal with many parameters (such as spectral and weather information all together) by reducing the occurrence of multicollinearity, is proposed. Experiments conducted on soybean yields in Brazil fields with a RapidEye satellite image indicate that the proposed SSD-HB model can predict soybean yield with a higher degree of accuracy than other estimation methods commonly used in remote-sensing applications. In the case of the SSD-HB model, the mean absolute error between estimated yield of the target area and actual yield is 0.28 t/ha, compared to 0.34 t/ha when conventional PLS regression was applied, showing the potential effectiveness of the proposed model.

A GRASS GIS module to obtain an estimation of glacier behavior under climate change: A pilot study on Italian glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strigaro, Daniele; Moretti, Massimiliano; Mattavelli, Matteo; Frigerio, Ivan; Amicis, Mattia De; Maggi, Valter

2016-09-01

The aim of this work is to integrate the Minimal Glacier Model in a Geographic Information System Python module in order to obtain spatial simulations of glacier retreat and to assess the future scenarios with a spatial representation. The Minimal Glacier Models are a simple yet effective way of estimating glacier response to climate fluctuations. This module can be useful for the scientific and glaciological community in order to evaluate glacier behavior, driven by climate forcing. The module, called r.glacio.model, is developed in a GRASS GIS (GRASS Development Team, 2016) environment using Python programming language combined with different libraries as GDAL, OGR, CSV, math, etc. The module is applied and validated on the Rutor glacier, a glacier in the south-western region of the Italian Alps. This glacier is very large in size and features rather regular and lively dynamics. The simulation is calibrated by reconstructing the 3-dimensional dynamics flow line and analyzing the difference between the simulated flow line length variations and the observed glacier fronts coming from ortophotos and DEMs. These simulations are driven by the past mass balance record. Afterwards, the future assessment is estimated by using climatic drivers provided by a set of General Circulation Models participating in the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project 5 effort. The approach devised in r.glacio.model can be applied to most alpine glaciers to obtain a first-order spatial representation of glacier behavior under climate change.

Integrating remote sensing and spatially explicit epidemiological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finger, Flavio; Knox, Allyn; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Bompangue, Didier; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

2015-04-01

Spatially explicit epidemiological models are a crucial tool for the prediction of epidemiological patterns in time and space as well as for the allocation of health care resources. In addition they can provide valuable information about epidemiological processes and allow for the identification of environmental drivers of the disease spread. Most epidemiological models rely on environmental data as inputs. They can either be measured in the field by the means of conventional instruments or using remote sensing techniques to measure suitable proxies of the variables of interest. The later benefit from several advantages over conventional methods, including data availability, which can be an issue especially in developing, and spatial as well as temporal resolution of the data, which is particularly crucial for spatially explicit models. Here we present the case study of a spatially explicit, semi-mechanistic model applied to recurring cholera outbreaks in the Lake Kivu area (Democratic Republic of the Congo). The model describes the cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of the lake. Remotely sensed datasets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers. Human mobility and its effect on the disease spread is also taken into account. Several model configurations are tested on a data set of reported cases. The best models, accounting for different environmental drivers, and selected using the Akaike information criterion, are formally compared via cross validation. The best performing model accounts for seasonality, El Niño Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility.

Spatial analysis techniques applied to uranium prospecting in Chihuahua State, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinojosa de la Garza, Octavio R.; Montero Cabrera, María Elena; Sanín, Luz H.; Reyes Cortés, Manuel; Martínez Meyer, Enrique

2014-07-01

To estimate the distribution of uranium minerals in Chihuahua, the advanced statistical model "Maximun Entropy Method" (MaxEnt) was applied. A distinguishing feature of this method is that it can fit more complex models in case of small datasets (x and y data), as is the location of uranium ores in the State of Chihuahua. For georeferencing uranium ores, a database from the United States Geological Survey and workgroup of experts in Mexico was used. The main contribution of this paper is the proposal of maximum entropy techniques to obtain the mineral's potential distribution. For this model were used 24 environmental layers like topography, gravimetry, climate (worldclim), soil properties and others that were useful to project the uranium's distribution across the study area. For the validation of the places predicted by the model, comparisons were done with other research of the Mexican Service of Geological Survey, with direct exploration of specific areas and by talks with former exploration workers of the enterprise "Uranio de Mexico". Results. New uranium areas predicted by the model were validated, finding some relationship between the model predictions and geological faults. Conclusions. Modeling by spatial analysis provides additional information to the energy and mineral resources sectors.

A Physically Based Runoff Routing Model for Land Surface and Earth System Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Hongyi; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Wu, Huan

2013-06-13

A new physically based runoff routing model, called the Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART), has been developed to be applicable across local, regional, and global scales. Within each spatial unit, surface runoff is first routed across hillslopes and then discharged along with subsurface runoff into a ‘‘tributary subnetwork’’ before entering the main channel. The spatial units are thus linked via routing through the main channel network, which is constructed in a scale-consistent way across different spatial resolutions. All model parameters are physically based, and only a small subset requires calibration.MOSART has been applied to the Columbia River basinmore » at 1/ 168, 1/ 88, 1/ 48, and 1/ 28 spatial resolutions and was evaluated using naturalized or observed streamflow at a number of gauge stations. MOSART is compared to two other routing models widely used with land surface models, the River Transport Model (RTM) in the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Lohmann routing model, included as a postprocessor in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model package, yielding consistent performance at multiple resolutions. MOSART is further evaluated using the channel velocities derived from field measurements or a hydraulic model at various locations and is shown to be capable of producing the seasonal variation and magnitude of channel velocities reasonably well at different resolutions. Moreover, the impacts of spatial resolution on model simulations are systematically examined at local and regional scales. Finally, the limitations ofMOSART and future directions for improvements are discussed.« less

Climatic and physiographic controls of spatial variability in surface water balance over the contiguous United States using the Budyko relationship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatzoglou, John T.; Ficklin, Darren L.

2017-09-01

The geographic variability in the partitioning of precipitation into surface runoff (Q) and evapotranspiration (ET) is fundamental to understanding regional water availability. The Budyko equation suggests this partitioning is strictly a function of aridity, yet observed deviations from this relationship for individual watersheds impede using the framework to model surface water balance in ungauged catchments and under future climate and land use scenarios. A set of climatic, physiographic, and vegetation metrics were used to model the spatial variability in the partitioning of precipitation for 211 watersheds across the contiguous United States (CONUS) within Budyko's framework through the free parameter ω. A generalized additive model found that four widely available variables, precipitation seasonality, the ratio of soil water holding capacity to precipitation, topographic slope, and the fraction of precipitation falling as snow, explained 81.2% of the variability in ω. The ω model applied to the Budyko equation explained 97% of the spatial variability in long-term Q for an independent set of watersheds. The ω model was also applied to estimate the long-term water balance across the CONUS for both contemporary and mid-21st century conditions. The modeled partitioning of observed precipitation to Q and ET compared favorably across the CONUS with estimates from more sophisticated land-surface modeling efforts. For mid-21st century conditions, the model simulated an increase in the fraction of precipitation used by ET across the CONUS with declines in Q for much of the eastern CONUS and mountainous watersheds across the western United States.

Correction of mid-spatial-frequency errors by smoothing in spin motion for CCOS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yizhong; Wei, Chaoyang; Shao, Jianda; Xu, Xueke; Liu, Shijie; Hu, Chen; Zhang, Haichao; Gu, Haojin

2015-08-01

Smoothing is a convenient and efficient way to correct mid-spatial-frequency errors. Quantifying the smoothing effect allows improvements in efficiency for finishing precision optics. A series experiments in spin motion are performed to study the smoothing effects about correcting mid-spatial-frequency errors. Some of them use a same pitch tool at different spinning speed, and others at a same spinning speed with different tools. Introduced and improved Shu's model to describe and compare the smoothing efficiency with different spinning speed and different tools. From the experimental results, the mid-spatial-frequency errors on the initial surface were nearly smoothed out after the process in spin motion and the number of smoothing times can be estimated by the model before the process. Meanwhile this method was also applied to smooth the aspherical component, which has an obvious mid-spatial-frequency error after Magnetorheological Finishing processing. As a result, a high precision aspheric optical component was obtained with PV=0.1λ and RMS=0.01λ.

Solution of the spatial neutral model yields new bounds on the Amazonian species richness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shem-Tov, Yahav; Danino, Matan; Shnerb, Nadav M.

2017-02-01

Neutral models, in which individual agents with equal fitness undergo a birth-death-mutation process, are very popular in population genetics and community ecology. Usually these models are applied to populations and communities with spatial structure, but the analytic results presented so far are limited to well-mixed or mainland-island scenarios. Here we combine analytic results and numerics to obtain an approximate solution for the species abundance distribution and the species richness for the neutral model on continuous landscape. We show how the regional diversity increases when the recruitment length decreases and the spatial segregation of species grows. Our results are supported by extensive numerical simulations and allow one to probe the numerically inaccessible regime of large-scale systems with extremely small mutation/speciation rates. Model predictions are compared with the findings of recent large-scale surveys of tropical trees across the Amazon basin, yielding new bounds for the species richness (between 13100 and 15000) and the number of singleton species (between 455 and 690).

A consistent hierarchy of generalized kinetic equation approximations to the master equation applied to surface catalysis.

PubMed

Herschlag, Gregory J; Mitran, Sorin; Lin, Guang

2015-06-21

We develop a hierarchy of approximations to the master equation for systems that exhibit translational invariance and finite-range spatial correlation. Each approximation within the hierarchy is a set of ordinary differential equations that considers spatial correlations of varying lattice distance; the assumption is that the full system will have finite spatial correlations and thus the behavior of the models within the hierarchy will approach that of the full system. We provide evidence of this convergence in the context of one- and two-dimensional numerical examples. Lower levels within the hierarchy that consider shorter spatial correlations are shown to be up to three orders of magnitude faster than traditional kinetic Monte Carlo methods (KMC) for one-dimensional systems, while predicting similar system dynamics and steady states as KMC methods. We then test the hierarchy on a two-dimensional model for the oxidation of CO on RuO2(110), showing that low-order truncations of the hierarchy efficiently capture the essential system dynamics. By considering sequences of models in the hierarchy that account for longer spatial correlations, successive model predictions may be used to establish empirical approximation of error estimates. The hierarchy may be thought of as a class of generalized phenomenological kinetic models since each element of the hierarchy approximates the master equation and the lowest level in the hierarchy is identical to a simple existing phenomenological kinetic models.

Food web dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, D.L.; Trexler, J.C.; Donalson, D.D.

2008-01-01

A spatially explicit model is developed to simulate the small fish community and its underlying food web, in the freshwater marshes of the Everglades. The community is simplified to a few small fish species feeding on periphyton and invertebrates. Other compartments are detritus, crayfish, and a piscivorous fish species. This unit food web model is applied to each of the 10,000 spatial cells on a 100 x 100 pixel landscape. Seasonal variation in water level is assumed and rules are assigned for fish movement in response to rising and falling water levels, which can cause many spatial cells to alternate between flooded and dry conditions. It is shown that temporal variations of water level on a spatially heterogeneous landscape can maintain at least three competing fish species. In addition, these environmental factors can strongly affect the temporal variation of the food web caused by top-down control from the piscivorous fish.

Influence of snowpack and melt energy heterogeneity on snow cover depletion and snowmelt runoff simulation in a cold mountain environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeBeer, Chris M.; Pomeroy, John W.

2017-10-01

The spatial heterogeneity of mountain snow cover and ablation is important in controlling patterns of snow cover depletion (SCD), meltwater production, and runoff, yet is not well-represented in most large-scale hydrological models and land surface schemes. Analyses were conducted in this study to examine the influence of various representations of snow cover and melt energy heterogeneity on both simulated SCD and stream discharge from a small alpine basin in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Simulations were performed using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM), where point-scale snowmelt computations were made using a snowpack energy balance formulation and applied to spatial frequency distributions of snow water equivalent (SWE) on individual slope-, aspect-, and landcover-based hydrological response units (HRUs) in the basin. Hydrological routines were added to represent the vertical and lateral transfers of water through the basin and channel system. From previous studies it is understood that the heterogeneity of late winter SWE is a primary control on patterns of SCD. The analyses here showed that spatial variation in applied melt energy, mainly due to differences in net radiation, has an important influence on SCD at multiple scales and basin discharge, and cannot be neglected without serious error in the prediction of these variables. A single basin SWE distribution using the basin-wide mean SWE (SWE ‾) and coefficient of variation (CV; standard deviation/mean) was found to represent the fine-scale spatial heterogeneity of SWE sufficiently well. Simulations that accounted for differences in (SWE ‾) among HRUs but neglected the sub-HRU heterogeneity of SWE were found to yield similar discharge results as simulations that included this heterogeneity, while SCD was poorly represented, even at the basin level. Finally, applying point-scale snowmelt computations based on a single SWE depth for each HRU (thereby neglecting spatial differences in internal snowpack energetics over the distributions) was found to yield similar SCD and discharge results as simulations that resolved internal energy differences. Spatial/internal snowpack melt energy effects are more pronounced at times earlier in spring before the main period of snowmelt and SCD, as shown in previously published work. The paper discusses the importance of these findings as they apply to the warranted complexity of snowmelt process simulation in cold mountain environments, and shows how the end-of-winter SWE distribution represents an effective means of resolving snow cover heterogeneity at multiple scales for modelling, even in steep and complex terrain.

Probabilistic Downscaling of Remote Sensing Data with Applications for Multi-Scale Biogeochemical Flux Modeling.

PubMed

Stoy, Paul C; Quaife, Tristan

2015-01-01

Upscaling ecological information to larger scales in space and downscaling remote sensing observations or model simulations to finer scales remain grand challenges in Earth system science. Downscaling often involves inferring subgrid information from coarse-scale data, and such ill-posed problems are classically addressed using regularization. Here, we apply two-dimensional Tikhonov Regularization (2DTR) to simulate subgrid surface patterns for ecological applications. Specifically, we test the ability of 2DTR to simulate the spatial statistics of high-resolution (4 m) remote sensing observations of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in a tundra landscape. We find that the 2DTR approach as applied here can capture the major mode of spatial variability of the high-resolution information, but not multiple modes of spatial variability, and that the Lagrange multiplier (γ) used to impose the condition of smoothness across space is related to the range of the experimental semivariogram. We used observed and 2DTR-simulated maps of NDVI to estimate landscape-level leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP). NDVI maps simulated using a γ value that approximates the range of observed NDVI result in a landscape-level GPP estimate that differs by ca 2% from those created using observed NDVI. Following findings that GPP per unit LAI is lower near vegetation patch edges, we simulated vegetation patch edges using multiple approaches and found that simulated GPP declined by up to 12% as a result. 2DTR can generate random landscapes rapidly and can be applied to disaggregate ecological information and compare of spatial observations against simulated landscapes.

Probabilistic Downscaling of Remote Sensing Data with Applications for Multi-Scale Biogeochemical Flux Modeling

PubMed Central

Stoy, Paul C.; Quaife, Tristan

2015-01-01

Upscaling ecological information to larger scales in space and downscaling remote sensing observations or model simulations to finer scales remain grand challenges in Earth system science. Downscaling often involves inferring subgrid information from coarse-scale data, and such ill-posed problems are classically addressed using regularization. Here, we apply two-dimensional Tikhonov Regularization (2DTR) to simulate subgrid surface patterns for ecological applications. Specifically, we test the ability of 2DTR to simulate the spatial statistics of high-resolution (4 m) remote sensing observations of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in a tundra landscape. We find that the 2DTR approach as applied here can capture the major mode of spatial variability of the high-resolution information, but not multiple modes of spatial variability, and that the Lagrange multiplier (γ) used to impose the condition of smoothness across space is related to the range of the experimental semivariogram. We used observed and 2DTR-simulated maps of NDVI to estimate landscape-level leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP). NDVI maps simulated using a γ value that approximates the range of observed NDVI result in a landscape-level GPP estimate that differs by ca 2% from those created using observed NDVI. Following findings that GPP per unit LAI is lower near vegetation patch edges, we simulated vegetation patch edges using multiple approaches and found that simulated GPP declined by up to 12% as a result. 2DTR can generate random landscapes rapidly and can be applied to disaggregate ecological information and compare of spatial observations against simulated landscapes. PMID:26067835

Generation Algorithm of Discrete Line in Multi-Dimensional Grids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, L.; Ben, J.; Li, Y.; Wang, R.

2017-09-01

Discrete Global Grids System (DGGS) is a kind of digital multi-resolution earth reference model, in terms of structure, it is conducive to the geographical spatial big data integration and mining. Vector is one of the important types of spatial data, only by discretization, can it be applied in grids system to make process and analysis. Based on the some constraint conditions, this paper put forward a strict definition of discrete lines, building a mathematic model of the discrete lines by base vectors combination method. Transforming mesh discrete lines issue in n-dimensional grids into the issue of optimal deviated path in n-minus-one dimension using hyperplane, which, therefore realizing dimension reduction process in the expression of mesh discrete lines. On this basis, we designed a simple and efficient algorithm for dimension reduction and generation of the discrete lines. The experimental results show that our algorithm not only can be applied in the two-dimensional rectangular grid, also can be applied in the two-dimensional hexagonal grid and the three-dimensional cubic grid. Meanwhile, when our algorithm is applied in two-dimensional rectangular grid, it can get a discrete line which is more similar to the line in the Euclidean space.

Simulation of nitrate reduction in groundwater - An upscaling approach from small catchments to the Baltic Sea basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, A. L.; Donnelly, C.; Refsgaard, J. C.; Karlsson, I. B.

2018-01-01

This paper describes a modeling approach proposed to simulate the impact of local-scale, spatially targeted N-mitigation measures for the Baltic Sea Basin. Spatially targeted N-regulations aim at exploiting the considerable spatial differences in the natural N-reduction taking place in groundwater and surface water. While such measures can be simulated using local-scale physically-based catchment models, use of such detailed models for the 1.8 million km2 Baltic Sea basin is not feasible due to constraints on input data and computing power. Large-scale models that are able to simulate the Baltic Sea basin, on the other hand, do not have adequate spatial resolution to simulate some of the field-scale measures. Our methodology combines knowledge and results from two local-scale physically-based MIKE SHE catchment models, the large-scale and more conceptual E-HYPE model, and auxiliary data in order to enable E-HYPE to simulate how spatially targeted regulation of agricultural practices may affect N-loads to the Baltic Sea. We conclude that the use of E-HYPE with this upscaling methodology enables the simulation of the impact on N-loads of applying a spatially targeted regulation at the Baltic Sea basin scale to the correct order-of-magnitude. The E-HYPE model together with the upscaling methodology therefore provides a sound basis for large-scale policy analysis; however, we do not expect it to be sufficiently accurate to be useful for the detailed design of local-scale measures.

Bayesian structured additive regression modeling of epidemic data: application to cholera

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background A significant interest in spatial epidemiology lies in identifying associated risk factors which enhances the risk of infection. Most studies, however, make no, or limited use of the spatial structure of the data, as well as possible nonlinear effects of the risk factors. Methods We develop a Bayesian Structured Additive Regression model for cholera epidemic data. Model estimation and inference is based on fully Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. The model is applied to cholera epidemic data in the Kumasi Metropolis, Ghana. Proximity to refuse dumps, density of refuse dumps, and proximity to potential cholera reservoirs were modeled as continuous functions; presence of slum settlers and population density were modeled as fixed effects, whereas spatial references to the communities were modeled as structured and unstructured spatial effects. Results We observe that the risk of cholera is associated with slum settlements and high population density. The risk of cholera is equal and lower for communities with fewer refuse dumps, but variable and higher for communities with more refuse dumps. The risk is also lower for communities distant from refuse dumps and potential cholera reservoirs. The results also indicate distinct spatial variation in the risk of cholera infection. Conclusion The study highlights the usefulness of Bayesian semi-parametric regression model analyzing public health data. These findings could serve as novel information to help health planners and policy makers in making effective decisions to control or prevent cholera epidemics. PMID:22866662

Geostatistics for spatial genetic structures: study of wild populations of perennial ryegrass.

PubMed

Monestiez, P; Goulard, M; Charmet, G

1994-04-01

Methods based on geostatistics were applied to quantitative traits of agricultural interest measured on a collection of 547 wild populations of perennial ryegrass in France. The mathematical background of these methods, which resembles spatial autocorrelation analysis, is briefly described. When a single variable is studied, the spatial structure analysis is similar to spatial autocorrelation analysis, and a spatial prediction method, called "kriging", gives a filtered map of the spatial pattern over all the sampled area. When complex interactions of agronomic traits with different evaluation sites define a multivariate structure for the spatial analysis, geostatistical methods allow the spatial variations to be broken down into two main spatial structures with ranges of 120 km and 300 km, respectively. The predicted maps that corresponded to each range were interpreted as a result of the isolation-by-distance model and as a consequence of selection by environmental factors. Practical collecting methodology for breeders may be derived from such spatial structures.

Kalman filter techniques for accelerated Cartesian dynamic cardiac imaging.

PubMed

Feng, Xue; Salerno, Michael; Kramer, Christopher M; Meyer, Craig H

2013-05-01

In dynamic MRI, spatial and temporal parallel imaging can be exploited to reduce scan time. Real-time reconstruction enables immediate visualization during the scan. Commonly used view-sharing techniques suffer from limited temporal resolution, and many of the more advanced reconstruction methods are either retrospective, time-consuming, or both. A Kalman filter model capable of real-time reconstruction can be used to increase the spatial and temporal resolution in dynamic MRI reconstruction. The original study describing the use of the Kalman filter in dynamic MRI was limited to non-Cartesian trajectories because of a limitation intrinsic to the dynamic model used in that study. Here the limitation is overcome, and the model is applied to the more commonly used Cartesian trajectory with fast reconstruction. Furthermore, a combination of the Kalman filter model with Cartesian parallel imaging is presented to further increase the spatial and temporal resolution and signal-to-noise ratio. Simulations and experiments were conducted to demonstrate that the Kalman filter model can increase the temporal resolution of the image series compared with view-sharing techniques and decrease the spatial aliasing compared with TGRAPPA. The method requires relatively little computation, and thus is suitable for real-time reconstruction. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Kalman Filter Techniques for Accelerated Cartesian Dynamic Cardiac Imaging

PubMed Central

Feng, Xue; Salerno, Michael; Kramer, Christopher M.; Meyer, Craig H.

2012-01-01

In dynamic MRI, spatial and temporal parallel imaging can be exploited to reduce scan time. Real-time reconstruction enables immediate visualization during the scan. Commonly used view-sharing techniques suffer from limited temporal resolution, and many of the more advanced reconstruction methods are either retrospective, time-consuming, or both. A Kalman filter model capable of real-time reconstruction can be used to increase the spatial and temporal resolution in dynamic MRI reconstruction. The original study describing the use of the Kalman filter in dynamic MRI was limited to non-Cartesian trajectories, because of a limitation intrinsic to the dynamic model used in that study. Here the limitation is overcome and the model is applied to the more commonly used Cartesian trajectory with fast reconstruction. Furthermore, a combination of the Kalman filter model with Cartesian parallel imaging is presented to further increase the spatial and temporal resolution and SNR. Simulations and experiments were conducted to demonstrate that the Kalman filter model can increase the temporal resolution of the image series compared with view sharing techniques and decrease the spatial aliasing compared with TGRAPPA. The method requires relatively little computation, and thus is suitable for real-time reconstruction. PMID:22926804

Global and 3D Spatial Assessment of Neuroinflammation in Rodent Models of Multiple Sclerosis

PubMed Central

Gupta, Shashank; Utoft, Regine; Hasseldam, Henrik; Schmidt-Christensen, Anja; Hannibal, Tine Dahlbaek; Hansen, Lisbeth; Fransén-Pettersson, Nina; Agarwal-Gupta, Noopur; Rozell, Björn; Andersson, Åsa; Holmberg, Dan

2013-01-01

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a progressive autoimmune inflammatory and demyelinating disease of the central nervous system (CNS). T cells play a key role in the progression of neuroinflammation in MS and also in the experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) animal models for the disease. A technology for quantitative and 3 dimensional (3D) spatial assessment of inflammation in this and other CNS inflammatory conditions is much needed. Here we present a procedure for 3D spatial assessment and global quantification of the development of neuroinflammation based on Optical Projection Tomography (OPT). Applying this approach to the analysis of rodent models of MS, we provide global quantitative data of the major inflammatory component as a function of the clinical course. Our data demonstrates a strong correlation between the development and progression of neuroinflammation and clinical disease in several mouse and a rat model of MS refining the information regarding the spatial dynamics of the inflammatory component in EAE. This method provides a powerful tool to investigate the effect of environmental and genetic forces and for assessing the therapeutic effects of drug therapy in animal models of MS and other neuroinflammatory/neurodegenerative disorders. PMID:24124545

A model for spatial variations in life expectancy; mortality in Chinese regions in 2000.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2007-05-02

Life expectancy in China has been improving markedly but health gains have been uneven and there is inequality in survival chances between regions and in rural as against urban areas. This paper applies a statistical modelling approach to mortality data collected in conjunction with the 2000 Census to formally assess spatial mortality contrasts in China. The modelling approach provides interpretable summary parameters (e.g. the relative mortality risk in rural as against urban areas) and is more parsimonious in terms of parameters than the conventional life table model. Predictive fit is assessed both globally and at the level of individual five year age groups. A proportional model (age and area effects independent) has a worse fit than one allowing age-area interactions following a bilinear form. The best fit is obtained by allowing for child and oldest age mortality rates to vary spatially. There is evidence that age (21 age groups) and area (31 Chinese administrative divisions) are not proportional (i.e. independent) mortality risk factors. In fact, spatial contrasts are greatest at young ages. There is a pronounced rural survival disadvantage, and large differences in life expectancy between provinces.

N-mixture models for estimating population size from spatially replicated counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew

2004-01-01

Spatial replication is a common theme in count surveys of animals. Such surveys often generate sparse count data from which it is difficult to estimate population size while formally accounting for detection probability. In this article, i describe a class of models (n-mixture models) which allow for estimation of population size from such data. The key idea is to view site-specific population sizes, n, as independent random variables distributed according to some mixing distribution (e.g., Poisson). Prior parameters are estimated from the marginal likelihood of the data, having integrated over the prior distribution for n. Carroll and lombard (1985, journal of american statistical association 80, 423-426) proposed a class of estimators based on mixing over a prior distribution for detection probability. Their estimator can be applied in limited settings, but is sensitive to prior parameter values that are fixed a priori. Spatial replication provides additional information regarding the parameters of the prior distribution on n that is exploited by the n-mixture models and which leads to reasonable estimates of abundance from sparse data. A simulation study demonstrates superior operating characteristics (bias, confidence interval coverage) of the n-mixture estimator compared to the caroll and lombard estimator. Both estimators are applied to point count data on six species of birds illustrating the sensitivity to choice of prior on p and substantially different estimates of abundance as a consequence.

A spatial hazard model for cluster detection on continuous indicators of disease: application to somatic cell score.

PubMed

Gay, Emilie; Senoussi, Rachid; Barnouin, Jacques

2007-01-01

Methods for spatial cluster detection dealing with diseases quantified by continuous variables are few, whereas several diseases are better approached by continuous indicators. For example, subclinical mastitis of the dairy cow is evaluated using a continuous marker of udder inflammation, the somatic cell score (SCS). Consequently, this study proposed to analyze spatialized risk and cluster components of herd SCS through a new method based on a spatial hazard model. The dataset included annual SCS for 34 142 French dairy herds for the year 2000, and important SCS risk factors: mean parity, percentage of winter and spring calvings, and herd size. The model allowed the simultaneous estimation of the effects of known risk factors and of potential spatial clusters on SCS, and the mapping of the estimated clusters and their range. Mean parity and winter and spring calvings were significantly associated with subclinical mastitis risk. The model with the presence of 3 clusters was highly significant, and the 3 clusters were attractive, i.e. closeness to cluster center increased the occurrence of high SCS. The three localizations were the following: close to the city of Troyes in the northeast of France; around the city of Limoges in the center-west; and in the southwest close to the city of Tarbes. The semi-parametric method based on spatial hazard modeling applies to continuous variables, and takes account of both risk factors and potential heterogeneity of the background population. This tool allows a quantitative detection but assumes a spatially specified form for clusters.

A Spatial Statistical Model for Landscape Genetics

PubMed Central

Guillot, Gilles; Estoup, Arnaud; Mortier, Frédéric; Cosson, Jean François

2005-01-01

Landscape genetics is a new discipline that aims to provide information on how landscape and environmental features influence population genetic structure. The first key step of landscape genetics is the spatial detection and location of genetic discontinuities between populations. However, efficient methods for achieving this task are lacking. In this article, we first clarify what is conceptually involved in the spatial modeling of genetic data. Then we describe a Bayesian model implemented in a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme that allows inference of the location of such genetic discontinuities from individual geo-referenced multilocus genotypes, without a priori knowledge on populational units and limits. In this method, the global set of sampled individuals is modeled as a spatial mixture of panmictic populations, and the spatial organization of populations is modeled through the colored Voronoi tessellation. In addition to spatially locating genetic discontinuities, the method quantifies the amount of spatial dependence in the data set, estimates the number of populations in the studied area, assigns individuals to their population of origin, and detects individual migrants between populations, while taking into account uncertainty on the location of sampled individuals. The performance of the method is evaluated through the analysis of simulated data sets. Results show good performances for standard data sets (e.g., 100 individuals genotyped at 10 loci with 10 alleles per locus), with high but also low levels of population differentiation (e.g., FST < 0.05). The method is then applied to a set of 88 individuals of wolverines (Gulo gulo) sampled in the northwestern United States and genotyped at 10 microsatellites. PMID:15520263

An innovative computer design for modeling forest landscape change in very large spatial extents with fine resolutions

Treesearch

Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson; Yangjian Zhang

2011-01-01

Although forest landscape models (FLMs) have benefited greatly from ongoing advances of computer technology and software engineering, computing capacity remains a bottleneck in the design and development of FLMs. Computer memory overhead and run time efficiency are primary limiting factors when applying forest landscape models to simulate large landscapes with fine...

Developing and applying habitat models using forest inventory data: an example using a terrestrial salamander

Treesearch

Hartwell H. Welsh Jr; Jeffrey R. Dunk; William J. Zielinski

2004-01-01

We provide a framework for developing predictive species habitat models using preexisting vegetation, physical, and spatial data in association with animal sampling data. The resulting models are used to evaluate questions relevant to species conservation, in particular, comparing occurrence estimates in reserved and unreserved lands. We used an information–theoretic...

Spatial analysis of land use and shallow groundwater vulnerability in the watershed adjacent to Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland and Virginia, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaMotte, A.E.; Greene, E.A.

2007-01-01

Spatial relations between land use and groundwater quality in the watershed adjacent to Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland and Virginia, USA were analyzed by the use of two spatial models. One model used a logit analysis and the other was based on geostatistics. The models were developed and compared on the basis of existing concentrations of nitrate as nitrogen in samples from 529 domestic wells. The models were applied to produce spatial probability maps that show areas in the watershed where concentrations of nitrate in groundwater are likely to exceed a predetermined management threshold value. Maps of the watershed generated by logistic regression and probability kriging analysis showing where the probability of nitrate concentrations would exceed 3 mg/L (>0.50) compared favorably. Logistic regression was less dependent on the spatial distribution of sampled wells, and identified an additional high probability area within the watershed that was missed by probability kriging. The spatial probability maps could be used to determine the natural or anthropogenic factors that best explain the occurrence and distribution of elevated concentrations of nitrate (or other constituents) in shallow groundwater. This information can be used by local land-use planners, ecologists, and managers to protect water supplies and identify land-use planning solutions and monitoring programs in vulnerable areas. ?? 2006 Springer-Verlag.

Controlling for unmeasured confounding and spatial misalignment in long-term air pollution and health studies.

PubMed

Lee, Duncan; Sarran, Christophe

2015-11-01

The health impact of long-term exposure to air pollution is now routinely estimated using spatial ecological studies, owing to the recent widespread availability of spatial referenced pollution and disease data. However, this areal unit study design presents a number of statistical challenges, which if ignored have the potential to bias the estimated pollution-health relationship. One such challenge is how to control for the spatial autocorrelation present in the data after accounting for the known covariates, which is caused by unmeasured confounding. A second challenge is how to adjust the functional form of the model to account for the spatial misalignment between the pollution and disease data, which causes within-area variation in the pollution data. These challenges have largely been ignored in existing long-term spatial air pollution and health studies, so here we propose a novel Bayesian hierarchical model that addresses both challenges and provide software to allow others to apply our model to their own data. The effectiveness of the proposed model is compared by simulation against a number of state-of-the-art alternatives proposed in the literature and is then used to estimate the impact of nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter concentrations on respiratory hospital admissions in a new epidemiological study in England in 2010 at the local authority level. © 2015 The Authors. Environmetrics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Novel probabilistic models of spatial genetic ancestry with applications to stratification correction in genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Bhaskar, Anand; Javanmard, Adel; Courtade, Thomas A; Tse, David

2017-03-15

Genetic variation in human populations is influenced by geographic ancestry due to spatial locality in historical mating and migration patterns. Spatial population structure in genetic datasets has been traditionally analyzed using either model-free algorithms, such as principal components analysis (PCA) and multidimensional scaling, or using explicit spatial probabilistic models of allele frequency evolution. We develop a general probabilistic model and an associated inference algorithm that unify the model-based and data-driven approaches to visualizing and inferring population structure. Our spatial inference algorithm can also be effectively applied to the problem of population stratification in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), where hidden population structure can create fictitious associations when population ancestry is correlated with both the genotype and the trait. Our algorithm Geographic Ancestry Positioning (GAP) relates local genetic distances between samples to their spatial distances, and can be used for visually discerning population structure as well as accurately inferring the spatial origin of individuals on a two-dimensional continuum. On both simulated and several real datasets from diverse human populations, GAP exhibits substantially lower error in reconstructing spatial ancestry coordinates compared to PCA. We also develop an association test that uses the ancestry coordinates inferred by GAP to accurately account for ancestry-induced correlations in GWAS. Based on simulations and analysis of a dataset of 10 metabolic traits measured in a Northern Finland cohort, which is known to exhibit significant population structure, we find that our method has superior power to current approaches. Our software is available at https://github.com/anand-bhaskar/gap . abhaskar@stanford.edu or ajavanma@usc.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Spatial Distribution of the Coefficient of Variation for the Paleo-Earthquakes in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nomura, S.; Ogata, Y.

2015-12-01

Renewal processes, point prccesses in which intervals between consecutive events are independently and identically distributed, are frequently used to describe this repeating earthquake mechanism and forecast the next earthquakes. However, one of the difficulties in applying recurrent earthquake models is the scarcity of the historical data. Most studied fault segments have few, or only one observed earthquake that often have poorly constrained historic and/or radiocarbon ages. The maximum likelihood estimate from such a small data set can have a large bias and error, which tends to yield high probability for the next event in a very short time span when the recurrence intervals have similar lengths. On the other hand, recurrence intervals at a fault depend on the long-term slip rate caused by the tectonic motion in average. In addition, recurrence times are also fluctuated by nearby earthquakes or fault activities which encourage or discourage surrounding seismicity. These factors have spatial trends due to the heterogeneity of tectonic motion and seismicity. Thus, this paper introduces a spatial structure on the key parameters of renewal processes for recurrent earthquakes and estimates it by using spatial statistics. Spatial variation of mean and variance parameters of recurrence times are estimated in Bayesian framework and the next earthquakes are forecasted by Bayesian predictive distributions. The proposal model is applied for recurrent earthquake catalog in Japan and its result is compared with the current forecast adopted by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan.

Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao

This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 km and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemblemore » during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late 21st century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late 21st century.« less

Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao

This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble duringmore » the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.« less

Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

2018-06-01

This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

2017-09-01

This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

Science Inquiry into Local Animals: Structure and Function Explored through Model Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rule, Audrey C.; Tallakson, Denise A.; Glascock, Alex L.; Chao, Astoria

2015-01-01

This article describes an arts- and spatial thinking skill--integrated inquiry project applied to life science concepts from the Next Generation Science Standards for fourth grade students that focuses on two unifying or crosscutting themes: (1) structure (or "form") and function and (2) use of models. Students made observations and…

Spatially explicit modeling of mixed-severity fire regimes and landscape dynamics

Treesearch

Michael C. Wimberly; Rebecca S.H. Kennedy

2008-01-01

Simulation models of disturbance and succession are being increasingly applied to characterize landscape composition and dynamics under natural fire regimes, and to evaluate alternative management strategies for ecological restoration and fire hazard reduction. However, we have a limited understanding of how landscapes respond to changes in fire frequency, and about...

Functional Nonlinear Mixed Effects Models For Longitudinal Image Data

PubMed Central

Luo, Xinchao; Zhu, Lixing; Kong, Linglong; Zhu, Hongtu

2015-01-01

Motivated by studying large-scale longitudinal image data, we propose a novel functional nonlinear mixed effects modeling (FN-MEM) framework to model the nonlinear spatial-temporal growth patterns of brain structure and function and their association with covariates of interest (e.g., time or diagnostic status). Our FNMEM explicitly quantifies a random nonlinear association map of individual trajectories. We develop an efficient estimation method to estimate the nonlinear growth function and the covariance operator of the spatial-temporal process. We propose a global test and a simultaneous confidence band for some specific growth patterns. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation to examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed procedures. We apply FNMEM to investigate the spatial-temporal dynamics of white-matter fiber skeletons in a national database for autism research. Our FNMEM may provide a valuable tool for charting the developmental trajectories of various neuropsychiatric and neurodegenerative disorders. PMID:26213453

Approximate Bayesian computation for spatial SEIR(S) epidemic models.

PubMed

Brown, Grant D; Porter, Aaron T; Oleson, Jacob J; Hinman, Jessica A

2018-02-01

Approximate Bayesia n Computation (ABC) provides an attractive approach to estimation in complex Bayesian inferential problems for which evaluation of the kernel of the posterior distribution is impossible or computationally expensive. These highly parallelizable techniques have been successfully applied to many fields, particularly in cases where more traditional approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are impractical. In this work, we demonstrate the application of approximate Bayesian inference to spatially heterogeneous Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) stochastic epidemic models. These models have a tractable posterior distribution, however MCMC techniques nevertheless become computationally infeasible for moderately sized problems. We discuss the practical implementation of these techniques via the open source ABSEIR package for R. The performance of ABC relative to traditional MCMC methods in a small problem is explored under simulation, as well as in the spatially heterogeneous context of the 2014 epidemic of Chikungunya in the Americas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Species survival emerge from rare events of individual migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zelnik, Yuval R.; Solomon, Sorin; Yaari, Gur

2015-01-01

Ecosystems greatly vary in their species composition and interactions, yet they all show remarkable resilience to external influences. Recent experiments have highlighted the significant effects of spatial structure and connectivity on the extinction and survival of species. It has also been emphasized lately that in order to study extinction dynamics reliably, it is essential to incorporate stochasticity, and in particular the discrete nature of populations, into the model. Accordingly, we applied a bottom-up modeling approach that includes both spatial features and stochastic interactions to study survival mechanisms of species. Using the simplest spatial extension of the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model with competition, subject to demographic and environmental noise, we were able to systematically study emergent properties of this rich system. By scanning the relevant parameter space, we show that both survival and extinction processes often result from a combination of habitat fragmentation and individual rare events of recolonization.

Species survival emerge from rare events of individual migration.

PubMed

Zelnik, Yuval R; Solomon, Sorin; Yaari, Gur

2015-01-19

Ecosystems greatly vary in their species composition and interactions, yet they all show remarkable resilience to external influences. Recent experiments have highlighted the significant effects of spatial structure and connectivity on the extinction and survival of species. It has also been emphasized lately that in order to study extinction dynamics reliably, it is essential to incorporate stochasticity, and in particular the discrete nature of populations, into the model. Accordingly, we applied a bottom-up modeling approach that includes both spatial features and stochastic interactions to study survival mechanisms of species. Using the simplest spatial extension of the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model with competition, subject to demographic and environmental noise, we were able to systematically study emergent properties of this rich system. By scanning the relevant parameter space, we show that both survival and extinction processes often result from a combination of habitat fragmentation and individual rare events of recolonization.

"SABER": A new software tool for radiotherapy treatment plan evaluation.

PubMed

Zhao, Bo; Joiner, Michael C; Orton, Colin G; Burmeister, Jay

2010-11-01

Both spatial and biological information are necessary in order to perform true optimization of a treatment plan and for predicting clinical outcome. The goal of this work is to develop an enhanced treatment plan evaluation tool which incorporates biological parameters and retains spatial dose information. A software system is developed which provides biological plan evaluation with a novel combination of features. It incorporates hyper-radiosensitivity using the induced-repair model and applies the new concept of dose convolution filter (DCF) to simulate dose wash-out effects due to cell migration, bystander effect, and/or tissue motion during treatment. Further, the concept of spatial DVH (sDVH) is introduced to evaluate and potentially optimize the spatial dose distribution in the target volume. Finally, generalized equivalent uniform dose is derived from both the physical dose distribution (gEUD) and the distribution of equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions (gEUD2) and the software provides three separate models for calculation of tumor control probability (TCP), normal tissue complication probability (NTCP), and probability of uncomplicated tumor control (P+). TCP, NTCP, and P+ are provided as a function of prescribed dose and multivariable TCP, NTCP, and P+ plots are provided to illustrate the dependence on individual parameters used to calculate these quantities. Ten plans from two clinical treatment sites are selected to test the three calculation models provided by this software. By retaining both spatial and biological information about the dose distribution, the software is able to distinguish features of radiotherapy treatment plans not discernible using commercial systems. Plans that have similar DVHs may have different spatial and biological characteristics and the application of novel tools such as sDVH and DCF within the software may substantially change the apparent plan quality or predicted plan metrics such as TCP and NTCP. For the cases examined, both the calculation method and the application of DCF can change the ranking order of competing plans. The voxel-by-voxel TCP model makes it feasible to incorporate spatial variations of clonogen densities (n), radiosensitivities (SF2), and fractionation sensitivities (alpha/beta) as those data become available. The new software incorporates both spatial and biological information into the treatment planning process. The application of multiple methods for the incorporation of biological and spatial information has demonstrated that the order of application of biological models can change the order of plan ranking. Thus, the results of plan evaluation and optimization are dependent not only on the models used but also on the order in which they are applied. This software can help the planner choose more biologically optimal treatment plans and potentially predict treatment outcome more accurately.

Spatially distributed environmental fate modelling of terbuthylazine in a mesoscale agricultural catchment using passive sampler data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gassmann, Matthias; Farlin, Julien; Gallé, Tom

2017-04-01

Agricultural application of herbicides often leads to significant herbicide losses to receiving rivers. The impact of agricultural practices on water pollution can be assessed by process-based reactive transport modelling using catchment scale models. Prior to investigations of management practices, these models have to be calibrated using sampling data. However, most previous studies only used concentrations at the catchment outlet for model calibration and validation. Thus, even if the applied model is spatially distributed, predicted spatial differences of pesticide loss cannot be directly compared to observations. In this study, we applied the spatially distributed reactive transport model Zin-AgriTra in the mesoscale (78 km2) catchment of the Wark River in Luxembourg in order to simulate concentrations of terbuthylazine in river water. In contrast to former studies, we used six sampling points, equipped with passive samplers, for pesticide model validation. Three samplers were located in the main channel of the river and three in smaller tributaries. At each sampling point, event mean concentration of six events from May to July 2011 were calculated by subtraction of baseflow-mass from total collected mass assuming time-proportional uptake by passive samplers. Continuous discharge measurements and high-resolution autosampling during events allowed for accurate load calculations at the outlet. Detailed information about maize cultivation in the catchment and nation-wide terbuthylazine application statistics (341 g/ha in the 3rd week of May) were used for a definition of the pesticide input function of the model. The hydrological model was manually calibrated to fit baseflow and spring/summer events. Substance fluxes were calibrated using a Latin Hypercube of physico-chemical substance characteristics as provided by the literature: surface soil half-lives of 10-35 d, Freundlich KOC of 150-330 ml/g, Freundlich n of 0.9 - 1 and adsorption/desorption kinetics of 20 - 80 1/d. Daily discharge simulations resulted in high Kling-Gupta efficiencies (KGE) for the calibration and the validation period (KGE > 0.70). Overall, terbuthylazine concentrations could be successfully reproduced with maximum KGE > 0.90 for all concentrations in the catchment and loads at the outlet. The generally lower concentrations in the tributaries that were measured by the passive samplers and the declining concentrations towards the outlet in the main channel could be reproduced by the model. The model simulated overland flow to be the major source of terbuthylazine in the main channel and soil water fluxes to be the most important pathways in the tributaries. Simulation results suggest that less than 0.01 % of applied terbuthylazine mass was exported to the river in the Wark catchment and less than 5 % of the exported mass was originating from the sampled tributaries. In addition to calibration of substance characteristics, passive sampler data was helpful in model setup of application field connectivity. Since the spatial resolution of the model was 50m, input maps sometimes showed a field to be directly connected to a river, whereas it was in reality separated from it by a 30m wide field or forest strip. Such misconfigurations leading to high concentrations in tributaries could easily be identified by comparing model results to passive sampler data. In conclusion, assigning different transport pathways of terbuthylazine to the rivers by model simulations was helped by using the additional spatial information on pesticide concentrations gained from passive samplers.

Applying spatial regression to evaluate risk factors for microbiological contamination of urban groundwater sources in Juba, South Sudan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engström, Emma; Mörtberg, Ulla; Karlström, Anders; Mangold, Mikael

2017-06-01

This study developed methodology for statistically assessing groundwater contamination mechanisms. It focused on microbial water pollution in low-income regions. Risk factors for faecal contamination of groundwater-fed drinking-water sources were evaluated in a case study in Juba, South Sudan. The study was based on counts of thermotolerant coliforms in water samples from 129 sources, collected by the humanitarian aid organisation Médecins Sans Frontières in 2010. The factors included hydrogeological settings, land use and socio-economic characteristics. The results showed that the residuals of a conventional probit regression model had a significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I = 3.05, I-stat = 9.28); therefore, a spatial model was developed that had better goodness-of-fit to the observations. The most significant factor in this model ( p-value 0.005) was the distance from a water source to the nearest Tukul area, an area with informal settlements that lack sanitation services. It is thus recommended that future remediation and monitoring efforts in the city be concentrated in such low-income regions. The spatial model differed from the conventional approach: in contrast with the latter case, lowland topography was not significant at the 5% level, as the p-value was 0.074 in the spatial model and 0.040 in the traditional model. This study showed that statistical risk-factor assessments of groundwater contamination need to consider spatial interactions when the water sources are located close to each other. Future studies might further investigate the cut-off distance that reflects spatial autocorrelation. Particularly, these results advise research on urban groundwater quality.

Spatial distribution of diesel transit bus emissions and urban populations: implications of coincidence and scale on exposure.

PubMed

Gouge, Brian; Ries, Francis J; Dowlatabadi, Hadi

2010-09-15

Macroscale emissions modeling approaches have been widely applied in impact assessments of mobile source emissions. However, these approaches poorly characterize the spatial distribution of emissions and have been shown to underestimate emissions of some pollutants. To quantify the implications of these limitations on exposure assessments, CO, NO(X), and HC emissions from diesel transit buses were estimated at 50 m intervals along a bus rapid transit route using a microscale emissions modeling approach. The impacted population around the route was estimated using census, pedestrian count and transit ridership data. Emissions exhibited significant spatial variability. In intervals near major intersections and bus stops, emissions were 1.6-3.0 times higher than average. The coincidence of these emission hot spots and peaks in pedestrian populations resulted in a 20-40% increase in exposure compared to estimates that assumed homogeneous spatial distributions of emissions and/or populations along the route. An additional 19-30% increase in exposure resulted from the underestimate of CO and NO(X) emissions by macroscale modeling approaches. The results of this study indicate that macroscale modeling approaches underestimate exposure due to poor characterization of the influence of vehicle activity on the spatial distribution of emissions and total emissions.

Landscape genomics of Sphaeralcea ambigua in the Mojave Desert: a multivariate, spatially-explicit approach to guide ecological restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shryock, Daniel F.; Havrilla, Caroline A.; DeFalco, Lesley; Esque, Todd C.; Custer, Nathan; Wood, Troy E.

2015-01-01

Local adaptation influences plant species’ responses to climate change and their performance in ecological restoration. Fine-scale physiological or phenological adaptations that direct demographic processes may drive intraspecific variability when baseline environmental conditions change. Landscape genomics characterize adaptive differentiation by identifying environmental drivers of adaptive genetic variability and mapping the associated landscape patterns. We applied such an approach to Sphaeralcea ambigua, an important restoration plant in the arid southwestern United States, by analyzing variation at 153 amplified fragment length polymorphism loci in the context of environmental gradients separating 47 Mojave Desert populations. We identified 37 potentially adaptive loci through a combination of genome scan approaches. We then used a generalized dissimilarity model (GDM) to relate variability in potentially adaptive loci with spatial gradients in temperature, precipitation, and topography. We identified non-linear thresholds in loci frequencies driven by summer maximum temperature and water stress, along with continuous variation corresponding to temperature seasonality. Two GDM-based approaches for mapping predicted patterns of local adaptation are compared. Additionally, we assess uncertainty in spatial interpolations through a novel spatial bootstrapping approach. Our study presents robust, accessible methods for deriving spatially-explicit models of adaptive genetic variability in non-model species that will inform climate change modelling and ecological restoration.

Spatial-temporal modeling of the association between air pollution exposure and preterm birth: identifying critical windows of exposure.

PubMed

Warren, Joshua; Fuentes, Montserrat; Herring, Amy; Langlois, Peter

2012-12-01

Exposure to high levels of air pollution during the pregnancy is associated with increased probability of preterm birth (PTB), a major cause of infant morbidity and mortality. New statistical methodology is required to specifically determine when a particular pollutant impacts the PTB outcome, to determine the role of different pollutants, and to characterize the spatial variability in these results. We develop a new Bayesian spatial model for PTB which identifies susceptible windows throughout the pregnancy jointly for multiple pollutants (PM(2.5) , ozone) while allowing these windows to vary continuously across space and time. We geo-code vital record birth data from Texas (2002-2004) and link them with standard pollution monitoring data and a newly introduced EPA product of calibrated air pollution model output. We apply the fully spatial model to a region of 13 counties in eastern Texas consisting of highly urban as well as rural areas. Our results indicate significant signal in the first two trimesters of pregnancy with different pollutants leading to different critical windows. Introducing the spatial aspect uncovers critical windows previously unidentified when space is ignored. A proper inference procedure is introduced to correctly analyze these windows. © 2012, The International Biometric Society.

Morphing of spatial objects in real time with interpolation by functions of radial and orthogonal basis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosnikov, Yu N.; Kuzmin, A. V.; Ho, Hoang Thai

2018-05-01

The article is devoted to visualization of spatial objects’ morphing described by the set of unordered reference points. A two-stage model construction is proposed to change object’s form in real time. The first (preliminary) stage is interpolation of the object’s surface by radial basis functions. Initial reference points are replaced by new spatially ordered ones. Reference points’ coordinates change patterns during the process of morphing are assigned. The second (real time) stage is surface reconstruction by blending functions of orthogonal basis. Finite differences formulas are applied to increase the productivity of calculations.

A data-model integration approach toward improved understanding on wetland functions and hydrological benefits at the catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeo, I. Y.; Lang, M.; Lee, S.; Huang, C.; Jin, H.; McCarty, G.; Sadeghi, A.

2017-12-01

The wetland ecosystem plays crucial roles in improving hydrological function and ecological integrity for the downstream water and the surrounding landscape. However, changing behaviours and functioning of wetland ecosystems are poorly understood and extremely difficult to characterize. Improved understanding on hydrological behaviours of wetlands, considering their interaction with surrounding landscapes and impacts on downstream waters, is an essential first step toward closing the knowledge gap. We present an integrated wetland-catchment modelling study that capitalizes on recently developed inundation maps and other geospatial data. The aim of the data-model integration is to improve spatial prediction of wetland inundation and evaluate cumulative hydrological benefits at the catchment scale. In this paper, we highlight problems arising from data preparation, parameterization, and process representation in simulating wetlands within a distributed catchment model, and report the recent progress on mapping of wetland dynamics (i.e., inundation) using multiple remotely sensed data. We demonstrate the value of spatially explicit inundation information to develop site-specific wetland parameters and to evaluate model prediction at multi-spatial and temporal scales. This spatial data-model integrated framework is tested using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with improved wetland extension, and applied for an agricultural watershed in the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain, USA. This study illustrates necessity of spatially distributed information and a data integrated modelling approach to predict inundation of wetlands and hydrologic function at the local landscape scale, where monitoring and conservation decision making take place.

Spatial capture-recapture models for search-encounter data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Kery, Marc; Guelat, Jerome

2011-01-01

1. Spatial capture–recapture models make use of auxiliary data on capture location to provide density estimates for animal populations. Previously, models have been developed primarily for fixed trap arrays which define the observable locations of individuals by a set of discrete points. 2. Here, we develop a class of models for 'search-encounter' data, i.e. for detections of recognizable individuals in continuous space, not restricted to trap locations. In our hierarchical model, detection probability is related to the average distance between individual location and the survey path. The locations are allowed to change over time owing to movements of individuals, and individual locations are related formally by a model describing individual activity or home range centre which is itself regarded as a latent variable in the model. We provide a Bayesian analysis of the model in WinBUGS, and develop a custom MCMC algorithm in the R language. 3. The model is applied to simulated data and to territory mapping data for the Willow Tit from the Swiss Breeding Bird Survey MHB. While the observed density was 15 territories per nominal 1 km2 plot of unknown effective sample area, the model produced a density estimate of 21∙12 territories per square km (95% posterior interval: 17–26). 4. Spatial capture–recapture models are relevant to virtually all animal population studies that seek to estimate population size or density, yet existing models have been proposed mainly for conventional sampling using arrays of traps. Our model for search-encounter data, where the spatial pattern of searching can be arbitrary and may change over occasions, greatly expands the scope and utility of spatial capture–recapture models.

Monitoring Method of Cow Anthrax Based on Gis and Spatial Statistical Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lin; Yang, Yong; Wang, Hongbin; Dong, Jing; Zhao, Yujun; He, Jianbin; Fan, Honggang

Geographic information system (GIS) is a computer application system, which possesses the ability of manipulating spatial information and has been used in many fields related with the spatial information management. Many methods and models have been established for analyzing animal diseases distribution models and temporal-spatial transmission models. Great benefits have been gained from the application of GIS in animal disease epidemiology. GIS is now a very important tool in animal disease epidemiological research. Spatial analysis function of GIS can be widened and strengthened by using spatial statistical analysis, allowing for the deeper exploration, analysis, manipulation and interpretation of spatial pattern and spatial correlation of the animal disease. In this paper, we analyzed the cow anthrax spatial distribution characteristics in the target district A (due to the secret of epidemic data we call it district A) based on the established GIS of the cow anthrax in this district in combination of spatial statistical analysis and GIS. The Cow anthrax is biogeochemical disease, and its geographical distribution is related closely to the environmental factors of habitats and has some spatial characteristics, and therefore the correct analysis of the spatial distribution of anthrax cow for monitoring and the prevention and control of anthrax has a very important role. However, the application of classic statistical methods in some areas is very difficult because of the pastoral nomadic context. The high mobility of livestock and the lack of enough suitable sampling for the some of the difficulties in monitoring currently make it nearly impossible to apply rigorous random sampling methods. It is thus necessary to develop an alternative sampling method, which could overcome the lack of sampling and meet the requirements for randomness. The GIS computer application software ArcGIS9.1 was used to overcome the lack of data of sampling sites.Using ArcGIS 9.1 and GEODA to analyze the cow anthrax spatial distribution of district A. we gained some conclusions about cow anthrax' density: (1) there is a spatial clustering model. (2) there is an intensely spatial autocorrelation. We established a prediction model to estimate the anthrax distribution based on the spatial characteristic of the density of cow anthrax. Comparing with the true distribution, the prediction model has a well coincidence and is feasible to the application. The method using a GIS tool facilitates can be implemented significantly in the cow anthrax monitoring and investigation, and the space statistics - related prediction model provides a fundamental use for other study on space-related animal diseases.

A model of tumor architecture and spatial interactions with tumor microenvironment in breast carcinoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Cheikh, Bassem; Bor-Angelier, Catherine; Racoceanu, Daniel

2017-03-01

Breast carcinomas are cancers that arise from the epithelial cells of the breast, which are the cells that line the lobules and the lactiferous ducts. Breast carcinoma is the most common type of breast cancer and can be divided into different subtypes based on architectural features and growth patterns, recognized during a histopathological examination. Tumor microenvironment (TME) is the cellular environment in which tumor cells develop. Being composed of various cell types having different biological roles, TME is recognized as playing an important role in the progression of the disease. The architectural heterogeneity in breast carcinomas and the spatial interactions with TME are, to date, not well understood. Developing a spatial model of tumor architecture and spatial interactions with TME can advance our understanding of tumor heterogeneity. Furthermore, generating histological synthetic datasets can contribute to validating, and comparing analytical methods that are used in digital pathology. In this work, we propose a modeling method that applies to different breast carcinoma subtypes and TME spatial distributions based on mathematical morphology. The model is based on a few morphological parameters that give access to a large spectrum of breast tumor architectures and are able to differentiate in-situ ductal carcinomas (DCIS) and histological subtypes of invasive carcinomas such as ductal (IDC) and lobular carcinoma (ILC). In addition, a part of the parameters of the model controls the spatial distribution of TME relative to the tumor. The validation of the model has been performed by comparing morphological features between real and simulated images.

Supporting user-defined granularities in a spatiotemporal conceptual model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Khatri, V.; Ram, S.; Snodgrass, R.T.; O'Brien, G. M.

2002-01-01

Granularities are integral to spatial and temporal data. A large number of applications require storage of facts along with their temporal and spatial context, which needs to be expressed in terms of appropriate granularities. For many real-world applications, a single granularity in the database is insufficient. In order to support any type of spatial or temporal reasoning, the semantics related to granularities needs to be embedded in the database. Specifying granularities related to facts is an important part of conceptual database design because under-specifying the granularity can restrict an application, affect the relative ordering of events and impact the topological relationships. Closely related to granularities is indeterminacy, i.e., an occurrence time or location associated with a fact that is not known exactly. In this paper, we present an ontology for spatial granularities that is a natural analog of temporal granularities. We propose an upward-compatible, annotation-based spatiotemporal conceptual model that can comprehensively capture the semantics related to spatial and temporal granularities, and indeterminacy without requiring new spatiotemporal constructs. We specify the formal semantics of this spatiotemporal conceptual model via translation to a conventional conceptual model. To underscore the practical focus of our approach, we describe an on-going case study. We apply our approach to a hydrogeologic application at the United States Geologic Survey and demonstrate that our proposed granularity-based spatiotemporal conceptual model is straightforward to use and is comprehensive.

Modelling past land use using archaeological and pollen data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirzamanbein, Behnaz; Lindström, johan; Poska, Anneli; Gaillard-Lemdahl, Marie-José

2016-04-01

Accurate maps of past land use are necessary for studying the impact of anthropogenic land-cover changes on climate and biodiversity. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct the land use using Gaussian Markov random fields. The model uses two observations sets: 1) archaeological data, representing human settlements, urbanization and agricultural findings; and 2) pollen-based land estimates of the three land-cover types Coniferous forest, Broadleaved forest and Unforested/Open land. The pollen based estimates are obtained from the REVEALS model, based on pollen counts from lakes and bogs. Our developed model uses the sparse pollen-based estimations to reconstruct the spatial continuous cover of three land cover types. Using the open-land component and the archaeological data, the extent of land-use is reconstructed. The model is applied on three time periods - centred around 1900 CE, 1000 and, 4000 BCE over Sweden for which both pollen-based estimates and archaeological data are available. To estimate the model parameters and land use, a block updated Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is applied. Using the MCMC posterior samples uncertainties in land-use predictions are computed. Due to lack of good historic land use data, model results are evaluated by cross-validation. Keywords. Spatial reconstruction, Gaussian Markov random field, Fossil pollen records, Archaeological data, Human land-use, Prediction uncertainty

Density estimation in a wolverine population using spatial capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Magoun, Audrey J.; Gardner, Beth; Valkenbury, Patrick; Lowell, Richard E.; McKelvey, Kevin

2011-01-01

Classical closed-population capture-recapture models do not accommodate the spatial information inherent in encounter history data obtained from camera-trapping studies. As a result, individual heterogeneity in encounter probability is induced, and it is not possible to estimate density objectively because trap arrays do not have a well-defined sample area. We applied newly-developed, capture-recapture models that accommodate the spatial attribute inherent in capture-recapture data to a population of wolverines (Gulo gulo) in Southeast Alaska in 2008. We used camera-trapping data collected from 37 cameras in a 2,140-km2 area of forested and open habitats largely enclosed by ocean and glacial icefields. We detected 21 unique individuals 115 times. Wolverines exhibited a strong positive trap response, with an increased tendency to revisit previously visited traps. Under the trap-response model, we estimated wolverine density at 9.7 individuals/1,000-km2(95% Bayesian CI: 5.9-15.0). Our model provides a formal statistical framework for estimating density from wolverine camera-trapping studies that accounts for a behavioral response due to baited traps. Further, our model-based estimator does not have strict requirements about the spatial configuration of traps or length of trapping sessions, providing considerable operational flexibility in the development of field studies.

Computation of the spectrum of spatial Lyapunov exponents for the spatially extended beam-plasma systems and electron-wave devices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hramov, Alexander E.; Saratov State Technical University, Politechnicheskaja str., 77, Saratov 410054; Koronovskii, Alexey A.

2012-08-15

The spectrum of Lyapunov exponents is powerful tool for the analysis of the complex system dynamics. In the general framework of nonlinear dynamics, a number of the numerical techniques have been developed to obtain the spectrum of Lyapunov exponents for the complex temporal behavior of the systems with a few degree of freedom. Unfortunately, these methods cannot be applied directly to analysis of complex spatio-temporal dynamics of plasma devices which are characterized by the infinite phase space, since they are the spatially extended active media. In the present paper, we propose the method for the calculation of the spectrum ofmore » the spatial Lyapunov exponents (SLEs) for the spatially extended beam-plasma systems. The calculation technique is applied to the analysis of chaotic spatio-temporal oscillations in three different beam-plasma model: (1) simple plasma Pierce diode, (2) coupled Pierce diodes, and (3) electron-wave system with backward electromagnetic wave. We find an excellent agreement between the system dynamics and the behavior of the spectrum of the spatial Lyapunov exponents. Along with the proposed method, the possible problems of SLEs calculation are also discussed. It is shown that for the wide class of the spatially extended systems, the set of quantities included in the system state for SLEs calculation can be reduced using the appropriate feature of the plasma systems.« less

Large-scale Modeling of Nitrous Oxide Production: Issues of Representing Spatial Heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morris, C. K.; Knighton, J.

2017-12-01

Nitrous oxide is produced from the biological processes of nitrification and denitrification in terrestrial environments and contributes to the greenhouse effect that warms Earth's climate. Large scale modeling can be used to determine how global rate of nitrous oxide production and consumption will shift under future climates. However, accurate modeling of nitrification and denitrification is made difficult by highly parameterized, nonlinear equations. Here we show that the representation of spatial heterogeneity in inputs, specifically soil moisture, causes inaccuracies in estimating the average nitrous oxide production in soils. We demonstrate that when soil moisture is averaged from a spatially heterogeneous surface, net nitrous oxide production is under predicted. We apply this general result in a test of a widely-used global land surface model, the Community Land Model v4.5. The challenges presented by nonlinear controls on nitrous oxide are highlighted here to provide a wider context to the problem of extraordinary denitrification losses in CLM. We hope that these findings will inform future researchers on the possibilities for model improvement of the global nitrogen cycle.

Robust optical flow using adaptive Lorentzian filter for image reconstruction under noisy condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kesrarat, Darun; Patanavijit, Vorapoj

2017-02-01

In optical flow for motion allocation, the efficient result in Motion Vector (MV) is an important issue. Several noisy conditions may cause the unreliable result in optical flow algorithms. We discover that many classical optical flows algorithms perform better result under noisy condition when combined with modern optimized model. This paper introduces effective robust models of optical flow by using Robust high reliability spatial based optical flow algorithms using the adaptive Lorentzian norm influence function in computation on simple spatial temporal optical flows algorithm. Experiment on our proposed models confirm better noise tolerance in optical flow's MV under noisy condition when they are applied over simple spatial temporal optical flow algorithms as a filtering model in simple frame-to-frame correlation technique. We illustrate the performance of our models by performing an experiment on several typical sequences with differences in movement speed of foreground and background where the experiment sequences are contaminated by the additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) at different noise decibels (dB). This paper shows very high effectiveness of noise tolerance models that they are indicated by peak signal to noise ratio (PSNR).

Facilitating political decisions using species distribution models to assess restoration measures in heavily modified estuaries.

PubMed

Heuner, Maike; Weber, Arnd; Schröder, Uwe; Kleinschmit, Birgit; Schröder, Boris

2016-09-15

The European Water Framework Directive requires a good ecological potential for heavily modified water bodies. This standard has not been reached for most large estuaries by 2015. Management plans for estuaries fall short in linking implementations between restoration measures and underlying spatial analyses. The distribution of emergent macrophytes - as an indicator of habitat quality - is here used to assess the ecological potential. Emergent macrophytes are capable of settling on gentle tidal flats where hydrodynamic stress is comparatively low. Analyzing their habitats based on spatial data, we set up species distribution models with 'elevation relative to mean high water', 'mean bank slope', and 'length of bottom friction' from shallow water up to the vegetation belt as key predictors representing hydrodynamic stress. Effects of restoration scenarios on habitats were assessed applying these models. Our findings endorse species distribution models as crucial spatial planning tools for implementing restoration measures in modified estuaries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian Framework for Analysis of Pseudo-Spatial Models of Comparable Engineered Systems with Application to Spacecraft Anomaly Prediction Based on Precedent Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndu, Obibobi Kamtochukwu

To ensure that estimates of risk and reliability inform design and resource allocation decisions in the development of complex engineering systems, early engagement in the design life cycle is necessary. An unfortunate constraint on the accuracy of such estimates at this stage of concept development is the limited amount of high fidelity design and failure information available on the actual system under development. Applying the human ability to learn from experience and augment our state of knowledge to evolve better solutions mitigates this limitation. However, the challenge lies in formalizing a methodology that takes this highly abstract, but fundamentally human cognitive, ability and extending it to the field of risk analysis while maintaining the tenets of generalization, Bayesian inference, and probabilistic risk analysis. We introduce an integrated framework for inferring the reliability, or other probabilistic measures of interest, of a new system or a conceptual variant of an existing system. Abstractly, our framework is based on learning from the performance of precedent designs and then applying the acquired knowledge, appropriately adjusted based on degree of relevance, to the inference process. This dissertation presents a method for inferring properties of the conceptual variant using a pseudo-spatial model that describes the spatial configuration of the family of systems to which the concept belongs. Through non-metric multidimensional scaling, we formulate the pseudo-spatial model based on rank-ordered subjective expert perception of design similarity between systems that elucidate the psychological space of the family. By a novel extension of Kriging methods for analysis of geospatial data to our "pseudo-space of comparable engineered systems", we develop a Bayesian inference model that allows prediction of the probabilistic measure of interest.

Efficient Calibration of Distributed Catchment Models Using Perceptual Understanding and Hydrologic Signatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutton, C.; Wagener, T.; Freer, J. E.; Duffy, C.; Han, D.

2015-12-01

Distributed models offer the potential to resolve catchment systems in more detail, and therefore simulate the hydrological impacts of spatial changes in catchment forcing (e.g. landscape change). Such models may contain a large number of model parameters which are computationally expensive to calibrate. Even when calibration is possible, insufficient data can result in model parameter and structural equifinality. In order to help reduce the space of feasible models and supplement traditional outlet discharge calibration data, semi-quantitative information (e.g. knowledge of relative groundwater levels), may also be used to identify behavioural models when applied to constrain spatially distributed predictions of states and fluxes. The challenge is to combine these different sources of information together to identify a behavioural region of state-space, and efficiently search a large, complex parameter space to identify behavioural parameter sets that produce predictions that fall within this behavioural region. Here we present a methodology to incorporate different sources of data to efficiently calibrate distributed catchment models. Metrics of model performance may be derived from multiple sources of data (e.g. perceptual understanding and measured or regionalised hydrologic signatures). For each metric, an interval or inequality is used to define the behaviour of the catchment system, accounting for data uncertainties. These intervals are then combined to produce a hyper-volume in state space. The state space is then recast as a multi-objective optimisation problem, and the Borg MOEA is applied to first find, and then populate the hyper-volume, thereby identifying acceptable model parameter sets. We apply the methodology to calibrate the PIHM model at Plynlimon, UK by incorporating perceptual and hydrologic data into the calibration problem. Furthermore, we explore how to improve calibration efficiency through search initialisation from shorter model runs.

Spatially distributed modelling of pesticide leaching at European scale with the PyCatch modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitz, Oliver; van der Perk, Marcel; Karssenberg, Derek; Häring, Tim; Jene, Bernhard

2017-04-01

The modelling of pesticide transport through the soil and estimating its leaching to groundwater is essential for an appropriate environmental risk assessment. Pesticide leaching models commonly used in regulatory processes often lack the capability of providing a comprehensive spatial view, as they are implemented as non-spatial point models or only use a few combinations of representative soils to simulate specific plots. Furthermore, their handling of spatial input and output data and interaction with available Geographical Information Systems tools is limited. Therefore, executing several scenarios simulating and assessing the potential leaching on national or continental scale at high resolution is rather inefficient and prohibits the straightforward identification of areas prone to leaching. We present a new pesticide leaching model component of the PyCatch framework developed in PCRaster Python, an environmental modelling framework tailored to the development of spatio-temporal models (http://www.pcraster.eu). To ensure a feasible computational runtime of large scale models, we implemented an elementary field capacity approach to model soil water. Currently implemented processes are evapotranspiration, advection, dispersion, sorption, degradation and metabolite transformation. Not yet implemented relevant additional processes such as surface runoff, snowmelt, erosion or other lateral flows can be integrated with components already implemented in PyCatch. A preliminary version of the model executes a 20-year simulation of soil water processes for Germany (20 soil layers, 1 km2 spatial resolution, and daily timestep) within half a day using a single CPU. A comparison of the soil moisture and outflow obtained from the PCRaster implementation and PELMO, a commonly used pesticide leaching model, resulted in an R2 of 0.98 for the FOCUS Hamburg scenario. We will further discuss the validation of the pesticide transport processes and show case studies applied to European countries.

Use of Forest Inventory and Analysis information in wildlife habitat modeling: a process for linking multiple scales

Treesearch

Thomas C. Edwards; Gretchen G. Moisen; Tracey S. Frescino; Joshua L. Lawler

2002-01-01

We describe our collective efforts to develop and apply methods for using FIA data to model forest resources and wildlife habitat. Our work demonstrates how flexible regression techniques, such as generalized additive models, can be linked with spatially explicit environmental information for the mapping of forest type and structure. We illustrate how these maps of...

Quantification of live aboveground forest biomass dynamics with Landsat time-series and field inventory data: A comparison of empirical modeling approaches

Treesearch

Scott L. Powell; Warren B. Cohen; Sean P. Healey; Robert E. Kennedy; Gretchen G. Moisen; Kenneth B. Pierce; Janet L. Ohmann

2010-01-01

Spatially and temporally explicit knowledge of biomass dynamics at broad scales is critical to understanding how forest disturbance and regrowth processes influence carbon dynamics. We modeled live, aboveground tree biomass using Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field data and applied the models to 20+ year time-series of Landsat satellite imagery to...

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

DOE PAGES

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; ...

2016-10-24

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. Here, we overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates inmore » the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Finally, our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.« less

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. Here, we overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates inmore » the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Finally, our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.« less

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Homer, Collin G.; Kleinhesselink, Andrew R.; Adler, Peter B.

2016-01-01

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. We overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates in the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.

Statistical characterization of spatial patterns of rainfall cells in extratropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacchi, Baldassare; Ranzi, Roberto; Borga, Marco

1996-11-01

The assumption of a particular type of distribution of rainfall cells in space is needed for the formulation of several space-time rainfall models. In this study, weather radar-derived rain rate maps are employed to evaluate different types of spatial organization of rainfall cells in storms through the use of distance functions and second-moment measures. In particular the spatial point patterns of the local maxima of rainfall intensity are compared to a completely spatially random (CSR) point process by applying an objective distance measure. For all the analyzed radar maps the CSR assumption is rejected, indicating that at the resolution of the observation considered, rainfall cells are clustered. Therefore a theoretical framework for evaluating and fitting alternative models to the CSR is needed. This paper shows how the "reduced second-moment measure" of the point pattern can be employed to estimate the parameters of a Neyman-Scott model and to evaluate the degree of adequacy to the experimental data. Some limitations of this theoretical framework, and also its effectiveness, in comparison to the use of scaling functions, are discussed.

A finite elements method to solve the Bloch-Torrey equation applied to diffusion magnetic resonance imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Dang Van; Li, Jing-Rebecca; Grebenkov, Denis; Le Bihan, Denis

2014-04-01

The complex transverse water proton magnetization subject to diffusion-encoding magnetic field gradient pulses in a heterogeneous medium can be modeled by the multiple compartment Bloch-Torrey partial differential equation (PDE). In addition, steady-state Laplace PDEs can be formulated to produce the homogenized diffusion tensor that describes the diffusion characteristics of the medium in the long time limit. In spatial domains that model biological tissues at the cellular level, these two types of PDEs have to be completed with permeability conditions on the cellular interfaces. To solve these PDEs, we implemented a finite elements method that allows jumps in the solution at the cell interfaces by using double nodes. Using a transformation of the Bloch-Torrey PDE we reduced oscillations in the searched-for solution and simplified the implementation of the boundary conditions. The spatial discretization was then coupled to the adaptive explicit Runge-Kutta-Chebyshev time-stepping method. Our proposed method is second order accurate in space and second order accurate in time. We implemented this method on the FEniCS C++ platform and show time and spatial convergence results. Finally, this method is applied to study some relevant questions in diffusion MRI.

Comparison of spatial association approaches for landscape mapping of soil organic carbon stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, B. A.; Koszinski, S.; Wehrhan, M.; Sommer, M.

2015-03-01

The distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) can be variable at small analysis scales, but consideration of its role in regional and global issues demands the mapping of large extents. There are many different strategies for mapping SOC, among which is to model the variables needed to calculate the SOC stock indirectly or to model the SOC stock directly. The purpose of this research is to compare direct and indirect approaches to mapping SOC stocks from rule-based, multiple linear regression models applied at the landscape scale via spatial association. The final products for both strategies are high-resolution maps of SOC stocks (kg m-2), covering an area of 122 km2, with accompanying maps of estimated error. For the direct modelling approach, the estimated error map was based on the internal error estimations from the model rules. For the indirect approach, the estimated error map was produced by spatially combining the error estimates of component models via standard error propagation equations. We compared these two strategies for mapping SOC stocks on the basis of the qualities of the resulting maps as well as the magnitude and distribution of the estimated error. The direct approach produced a map with less spatial variation than the map produced by the indirect approach. The increased spatial variation represented by the indirect approach improved R2 values for the topsoil and subsoil stocks. Although the indirect approach had a lower mean estimated error for the topsoil stock, the mean estimated error for the total SOC stock (topsoil + subsoil) was lower for the direct approach. For these reasons, we recommend the direct approach to modelling SOC stocks be considered a more conservative estimate of the SOC stocks' spatial distribution.

Comparison of spatial association approaches for landscape mapping of soil organic carbon stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, B. A.; Koszinski, S.; Wehrhan, M.; Sommer, M.

2014-11-01

The distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) can be variable at small analysis scales, but consideration of its role in regional and global issues demands the mapping of large extents. There are many different strategies for mapping SOC, among which are to model the variables needed to calculate the SOC stock indirectly or to model the SOC stock directly. The purpose of this research is to compare direct and indirect approaches to mapping SOC stocks from rule-based, multiple linear regression models applied at the landscape scale via spatial association. The final products for both strategies are high-resolution maps of SOC stocks (kg m-2), covering an area of 122 km2, with accompanying maps of estimated error. For the direct modelling approach, the estimated error map was based on the internal error estimations from the model rules. For the indirect approach, the estimated error map was produced by spatially combining the error estimates of component models via standard error propagation equations. We compared these two strategies for mapping SOC stocks on the basis of the qualities of the resulting maps as well as the magnitude and distribution of the estimated error. The direct approach produced a map with less spatial variation than the map produced by the indirect approach. The increased spatial variation represented by the indirect approach improved R2 values for the topsoil and subsoil stocks. Although the indirect approach had a lower mean estimated error for the topsoil stock, the mean estimated error for the total SOC stock (topsoil + subsoil) was lower for the direct approach. For these reasons, we recommend the direct approach to modelling SOC stocks be considered a more conservative estimate of the SOC stocks' spatial distribution.

Modeling molecular mixing in a spatially inhomogeneous turbulent flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Daniel W.; Deb, Rajdeep

2012-02-01

Simulations of spatially inhomogeneous turbulent mixing in decaying grid turbulence with a joint velocity-concentration probability density function (PDF) method were conducted. The inert mixing scenario involves three streams with different compositions. The mixing model of Meyer ["A new particle interaction mixing model for turbulent dispersion and turbulent reactive flows," Phys. Fluids 22(3), 035103 (2010)], the interaction by exchange with the mean (IEM) model and its velocity-conditional variant, i.e., the IECM model, were applied. For reference, the direct numerical simulation data provided by Sawford and de Bruyn Kops ["Direct numerical simulation and lagrangian modeling of joint scalar statistics in ternary mixing," Phys. Fluids 20(9), 095106 (2008)] was used. It was found that velocity conditioning is essential to obtain accurate concentration PDF predictions. Moreover, the model of Meyer provides significantly better results compared to the IECM model at comparable computational expense.

Fully coupled approach to modeling shallow water flow, sediment transport, and bed evolution in rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuangcai; Duffy, Christopher J.

2011-03-01

Our ability to predict complex environmental fluid flow and transport hinges on accurate and efficient simulations of multiple physical phenomenon operating simultaneously over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, including overbank floods, coastal storm surge events, drying and wetting bed conditions, and simultaneous bed form evolution. This research implements a fully coupled strategy for solving shallow water hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and morphological bed evolution in rivers and floodplains (PIHM_Hydro) and applies the model to field and laboratory experiments that cover a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The model uses a standard upwind finite volume method and Roe's approximate Riemann solver for unstructured grids. A multidimensional linear reconstruction and slope limiter are implemented, achieving second-order spatial accuracy. Model efficiency and stability are treated using an explicit-implicit method for temporal discretization with operator splitting. Laboratory-and field-scale experiments were compiled where coupled processes across a range of scales were observed and where higher-order spatial and temporal accuracy might be needed for accurate and efficient solutions. These experiments demonstrate the ability of the fully coupled strategy in capturing dynamics of field-scale flood waves and small-scale drying-wetting processes.

Comparison of WEPP and APEX runoff and erosion prediction at field scale in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) and the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) are process-based models that can predict spatial and temporal distributions of erosion for hillslopes and watersheds. This study applies the WEPP model to predict runoff and erosion for a 35-ha fie...

Maximum entropy modeling of invasive plants in the forests of Cumberland Plateau and Mountain Region

Treesearch

Dawn Lemke; Philip Hulme; Jennifer Brown; Wubishet. Tadesse

2011-01-01

As anthropogenic influences on the landscape change the composition of 'natural' areas, it is important that we apply spatial technology in active management to mitigate human impact. This research explores the integration of geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing with statistical analysis to assist in modeling the distribution of invasive...

Location-Allocation and Accessibility Models for Improving the Spatial Planning of Public Health Services

PubMed Central

Polo, Gina; Acosta, C. Mera; Ferreira, Fernando; Dias, Ricardo Augusto

2015-01-01

This study integrated accessibility and location-allocation models in geographic information systems as a proposed strategy to improve the spatial planning of public health services. To estimate the spatial accessibility, we modified the two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) model with a different impedance function, a Gaussian weight for competition among service sites, a friction coefficient, distances along a street network based on the Dijkstra’s algorithm and by performing a vectorial analysis. To check the accuracy of the strategy, we used the data from the public sterilization program for the dogs and cats of Bogot´a, Colombia. Since the proposed strategy is independent of the service, it could also be applied to any other public intervention when the capacity of the service is known. The results of the accessibility model were consistent with the sterilization program data, revealing that the western, central and northern zones are the most isolated areas under the sterilization program. Spatial accessibility improvement was sought by relocating the sterilization sites using the maximum coverage with finite demand and the p-median models. The relocation proposed by the maximum coverage model more effectively maximized the spatial accessibility to the sterilization service given the non-uniform distribution of the populations of dogs and cats throughout the city. The implementation of the proposed strategy would provide direct benefits by improving the effectiveness of different public health interventions and the use of financial and human resources. PMID:25775411

Comparing approaches to spatially explicit ecosystem service modeling: a case study from the San Pedro River, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Semmens, Darius J.; Winthrop, Robert

2013-01-01

Although the number of ecosystem service modeling tools has grown in recent years, quantitative comparative studies of these tools have been lacking. In this study, we applied two leading open-source, spatially explicit ecosystem services modeling tools – Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) – to the San Pedro River watershed in southeast Arizona, USA, and northern Sonora, Mexico. We modeled locally important services that both modeling systems could address – carbon, water, and scenic viewsheds. We then applied managerially relevant scenarios for urban growth and mesquite management to quantify ecosystem service changes. InVEST and ARIES use different modeling approaches and ecosystem services metrics; for carbon, metrics were more similar and results were more easily comparable than for viewsheds or water. However, findings demonstrate similar gains and losses of ecosystem services and conclusions when comparing effects across our scenarios. Results were more closely aligned for landscape-scale urban-growth scenarios and more divergent for a site-scale mesquite-management scenario. Follow-up studies, including testing in different geographic contexts, can improve our understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of these and other ecosystem services modeling tools as they move closer to readiness for supporting day-to-day resource management.

Representation of vegetation by continental data sets derived from NOAA-AVHRR data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justice, C. O.; Townshend, J. R. G.; Kalb, V. L.

1991-01-01

Images of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are examined with specific attention given to the effect of spatial scales on the understanding of surface phenomena. A scale variance analysis is conducted on NDVI annual and seasonal images of Africa taken from 1987 NOAA-AVHRR data at spatial scales ranging from 8-512 km. The scales at which spatial variation takes place are determined and the relative magnitude of the variations are considered. Substantial differences are demonstrated, notably an increase in spatial variation with coarsening spatial resolution. Different responses in scale variance as a function of spatial resolution are noted in an analysis of maximum value composites for February and September; the difference is most marked in areas with very seasonal vegetation. The spatial variation at different scales is attributed to different factors, and methods involving the averaging of areas of transition and surface heterogeneity can oversimplify surface conditions. The spatial characteristics and the temporal variability of areas should be considered to accurately apply satellite data to global models.

Use of forecasting signatures to help distinguish periodicity, randomness, and chaos in ripples and other spatial patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rubin, D.M.

1992-01-01

Forecasting of one-dimensional time series previously has been used to help distinguish periodicity, chaos, and noise. This paper presents two-dimensional generalizations for making such distinctions for spatial patterns. The techniques are evaluated using synthetic spatial patterns and then are applied to a natural example: ripples formed in sand by blowing wind. Tests with the synthetic patterns demonstrate that the forecasting techniques can be applied to two-dimensional spatial patterns, with the same utility and limitations as when applied to one-dimensional time series. One limitation is that some combinations of periodicity and randomness exhibit forecasting signatures that mimic those of chaos. For example, sine waves distorted with correlated phase noise have forecasting errors that increase with forecasting distance, errors that, are minimized using nonlinear models at moderate embedding dimensions, and forecasting properties that differ significantly between the original and surrogates. Ripples formed in sand by flowing air or water typically vary in geometry from one to another, even when formed in a flow that is uniform on a large scale; each ripple modifies the local flow or sand-transport field, thereby influencing the geometry of the next ripple downcurrent. Spatial forecasting was used to evaluate the hypothesis that such a deterministic process - rather than randomness or quasiperiodicity - is responsible for the variation between successive ripples. This hypothesis is supported by a forecasting error that increases with forecasting distance, a greater accuracy of nonlinear relative to linear models, and significant differences between forecasts made with the original ripples and those made with surrogate patterns. Forecasting signatures cannot be used to distinguish ripple geometry from sine waves with correlated phase noise, but this kind of structure can be ruled out by two geometric properties of the ripples: Successive ripples are highly correlated in wavelength, and ripple crests display dislocations such as branchings and mergers. ?? 1992 American Institute of Physics.

Spatial Distribution of the Coefficient of Variation and Bayesian Forecast for the Paleo-Earthquakes in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nomura, Shunichi; Ogata, Yosihiko

2016-04-01

We propose a Bayesian method of probability forecasting for recurrent earthquakes of inland active faults in Japan. Renewal processes with the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) distribution are applied for over a half of active faults in Japan by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) of Japan. Long-term forecast with the BPT distribution needs two parameters; the mean and coefficient of variation (COV) for recurrence intervals. The HERP applies a common COV parameter for all of these faults because most of them have very few specified paleoseismic events, which is not enough to estimate reliable COV values for respective faults. However, different COV estimates are proposed for the same paleoseismic catalog by some related works. It can make critical difference in forecast to apply different COV estimates and so COV should be carefully selected for individual faults. Recurrence intervals on a fault are, on the average, determined by the long-term slip rate caused by the tectonic motion but fluctuated by nearby seismicities which influence surrounding stress field. The COVs of recurrence intervals depend on such stress perturbation and so have spatial trends due to the heterogeneity of tectonic motion and seismicity. Thus we introduce a spatial structure on its COV parameter by Bayesian modeling with a Gaussian process prior. The COVs on active faults are correlated and take similar values for closely located faults. It is found that the spatial trends in the estimated COV values coincide with the density of active faults in Japan. We also show Bayesian forecasts by the proposed model using Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Our forecasts are different from HERP's forecast especially on the active faults where HERP's forecasts are very high or low.

Compatible Spatial Discretizations for Partial Differential Equations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arnold, Douglas, N, ed.

From May 11--15, 2004, the Institute for Mathematics and its Applications held a hot topics workshop on Compatible Spatial Discretizations for Partial Differential Equations. The numerical solution of partial differential equations (PDE) is a fundamental task in science and engineering. The goal of the workshop was to bring together a spectrum of scientists at the forefront of the research in the numerical solution of PDEs to discuss compatible spatial discretizations. We define compatible spatial discretizations as those that inherit or mimic fundamental properties of the PDE such as topology, conservation, symmetries, and positivity structures and maximum principles. A wide varietymore » of discretization methods applied across a wide range of scientific and engineering applications have been designed to or found to inherit or mimic intrinsic spatial structure and reproduce fundamental properties of the solution of the continuous PDE model at the finite dimensional level. A profusion of such methods and concepts relevant to understanding them have been developed and explored: mixed finite element methods, mimetic finite differences, support operator methods, control volume methods, discrete differential forms, Whitney forms, conservative differencing, discrete Hodge operators, discrete Helmholtz decomposition, finite integration techniques, staggered grid and dual grid methods, etc. This workshop seeks to foster communication among the diverse groups of researchers designing, applying, and studying such methods as well as researchers involved in practical solution of large scale problems that may benefit from advancements in such discretizations; to help elucidate the relations between the different methods and concepts; and to generally advance our understanding in the area of compatible spatial discretization methods for PDE. Particular points of emphasis included: + Identification of intrinsic properties of PDE models that are critical for the fidelity of numerical simulations. + Identification and design of compatible spatial discretizations of PDEs, their classification, analysis, and relations. + Relationships between different compatible spatial discretization methods and concepts which have been developed; + Impact of compatible spatial discretizations upon physical fidelity, verification and validation of simulations, especially in large-scale, multiphysics settings. + How solvers address the demands placed upon them by compatible spatial discretizations. This report provides information about the program and abstracts of all the presentations.« less

Evaluation of modeling NO2 concentrations driven by satellite-derived and bottom-up emission inventories using in situ measurements over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Fei; van der A, Ronald J.; Eskes, Henk; Ding, Jieying; Mijling, Bas

2018-03-01

Chemical transport models together with emission inventories are widely used to simulate NO2 concentrations over China, but validation of the simulations with in situ measurements has been extremely limited. Here we use ground measurements obtained from the air quality monitoring network recently developed by the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China to validate modeling surface NO2 concentrations from the CHIMERE regional chemical transport model driven by the satellite-derived DECSO and the bottom-up MIX emission inventories. We applied a correction factor to the observations to account for the interferences of other oxidized nitrogen compounds (NOz), based on the modeled ratio of NO2 to NOz. The model accurately reproduces the spatial variability in NO2 from in situ measurements, with a spatial correlation coefficient of over 0.7 for simulations based on both inventories. A negative and positive bias is found for the simulation with the DECSO (slope = 0.74 and 0.64 for the daily mean and daytime only) and the MIX (slope = 1.3 and 1.1) inventories, respectively, suggesting an underestimation and overestimation of NOx emissions from corresponding inventories. The bias between observed and modeled concentrations is reduced, with the slope dropping from 1.3 to 1.0 when the spatial distribution of NOx emissions in the DECSO inventory is applied as the spatial proxy for the MIX inventory, which suggests an improvement of the distribution of emissions between urban and suburban or rural areas in the DECSO inventory compared to that used in the bottom-up inventory. A rough estimate indicates that the observed concentrations, from sites predominantly placed in the populated urban areas, may be 10-40 % higher than the corresponding model grid cell mean. This reduces the estimate of the negative bias of the DECSO-based simulation to the range of -30 to 0 % on average and more firmly establishes that the MIX inventory is biased high over major cities. The performance of the model is comparable over seasons, with a slightly worse spatial correlation in summer due to the difficulties in resolving the more active NOx photochemistry and larger concentration gradients in summer by the model. In addition, the model well captures the daytime diurnal cycle but shows more significant disagreement between simulations and measurements during nighttime, which likely produces a positive model bias of about 15 % in the daily mean concentrations. This is most likely related to the uncertainty in vertical mixing in the model at night.

Evaluation of Modeling NO2 Concentrations Driven by Satellite-Derived and Bottom-Up Emission Inventories Using In-Situ Measurements Over China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Fei; van der A, Ronald J.; Eskes, Henk; Ding, Jieying; Mijling, Bas

2018-01-01

Chemical transport models together with emission inventories are widely used to simulate NO2 concentrations over China, but validation of the simulations with in situ measurements has been extremely limited. Here we use ground measurements obtained from the air quality monitoring network recently developed by the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China to validate modeling surface NO2 concentrations from the CHIMERE regional chemical transport model driven by the satellite-derived DECSO and the bottom-up MIX emission inventories. We applied a correction factor to the observations to account for the interferences of other oxidized nitrogen compounds (NOz), based on the modeled ratio of NO2 to NOz. The model accurately reproduces the spatial variability in NO2 from in situ measurements, with a spatial correlation coefficient of over 0.7 for simulations based on both inventories. A negative and positive bias is found for the simulation with the DECSO (slopeD0.74 and 0.64 for the daily mean and daytime only) and the MIX (slopeD1.3 and 1.1) inventories, respectively, suggesting an underestimation and overestimation of NOx emissions from corresponding inventories. The bias between observed and modeled concentrations is reduced, with the slope dropping from 1.3 to 1.0 when the spatial distribution of NOx emissions in the DECSO inventory is applied as the spatial proxy for the MIX inventory, which suggests an improvement of the distribution of emissions between urban and suburban or rural areas in the DECSO inventory compared to that used in the bottom-up inventory. A rough estimate indicates that the observed concentrations, from sites predominantly placed in the populated urban areas, may be 10-40% higher than the corresponding model grid cell mean. This reduces the estimate of the negative bias of the DECSO-based simulation to the range of -30 to 0% on average and more firmly establishes that the MIX inventory is biased high over major cities. The performance of the model is comparable over seasons, with a slightly worse spatial correlation in summer due to the difficulties in resolving the more active NOx photochemistry and larger concentration gradients in summer by the model. In addition, the model well captures the daytime diurnal cycle but shows more significant disagreement between simulations and measurements during nighttime, which likely produces a positive model bias of about 15% in the daily mean concentrations. This is most likely related to the uncertainty in vertical mixing in the model at night.

Comparison of alternative spatial resolutions in the application of a spatially distributed biogeochemical model over complex terrain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Turner, D.P.; Dodson, R.; Marks, D.

1996-01-01

Spatially distributed biogeochemical models may be applied over grids at a range of spatial resolutions, however, evaluation of potential errors and loss of information at relatively coarse resolutions is rare. In this study, a georeferenced database at the 1-km spatial resolution was developed to initialize and drive a process-based model (Forest-BGC) of water and carbon balance over a gridded 54976 km2 area covering two river basins in mountainous western Oregon. Corresponding data sets were also prepared at 10-km and 50-km spatial resolutions using commonly employed aggregation schemes. Estimates were made at each grid cell for climate variables including daily solar radiation, air temperature, humidity, and precipitation. The topographic structure, water holding capacity, vegetation type and leaf area index were likewise estimated for initial conditions. The daily time series for the climatic drivers was developed from interpolations of meteorological station data for the water year 1990 (1 October 1989-30 September 1990). Model outputs at the 1-km resolution showed good agreement with observed patterns in runoff and productivity. The ranges for model inputs at the 10-km and 50-km resolutions tended to contract because of the smoothed topography. Estimates for mean evapotranspiration and runoff were relatively insensitive to changing the spatial resolution of the grid whereas estimates of mean annual net primary production varied by 11%. The designation of a vegetation type and leaf area at the 50-km resolution often subsumed significant heterogeneity in vegetation, and this factor accounted for much of the difference in the mean values for the carbon flux variables. Although area wide means for model outputs were generally similar across resolutions, difference maps often revealed large areas of disagreement. Relatively high spatial resolution analyses of biogeochemical cycling are desirable from several perspectives and may be particularly important in the study of the potential impacts of climate change.

Investigation of the marked and long-standing spatial inhomogeneity of the Hungarian suicide rate: a spatial regression approach.

PubMed

Balint, Lajos; Dome, Peter; Daroczi, Gergely; Gonda, Xenia; Rihmer, Zoltan

2014-02-01

In the last century Hungary had astonishingly high suicide rates characterized by marked regional within-country inequalities, a spatial pattern which has been quite stable over time. To explain the above phenomenon at the level of micro-regions (n=175) in the period between 2005 and 2011. Our dependent variable was the age and gender standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for suicide while explanatory variables were factors which are supposed to influence suicide risk, such as measures of religious and political integration, travel time accessibility of psychiatric services, alcohol consumption, unemployment and disability pensionery. When applying the ordinary least squared regression model, the residuals were found to be spatially autocorrelated, which indicates the violation of the assumption on the independence of error terms and - accordingly - the necessity of application of a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model to handle this problem. According to our calculations the SARlag model was a better way (versus the SARerr model) of addressing the problem of spatial autocorrelation, furthermore its substantive meaning is more convenient. SMR was significantly associated with the "political integration" variable in a negative and with "lack of religious integration" and "disability pensionery" variables in a positive manner. Associations were not significant for the remaining explanatory variables. Several important psychiatric variables were not available at the level of micro-regions. We conducted our analysis on aggregate data. Our results may draw attention to the relevance and abiding validity of the classic Durkheimian suicide risk factors - such as lack of social integration - apropos of the spatial pattern of Hungarian suicides. © 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Use of (137)Cs technique for soil erosion study in the agricultural region of Casablanca in Morocco.

PubMed

Nouira, A; Sayouty, E H; Benmansour, M

2003-01-01

Accelerated erosion and soil degradation currently cause serious problems to the Oued El Maleh basin (Morocco). Furthermore, there is still only limited information on rates of soil loss for optimising strategies for soil conservation. In the present study we have used the (137)Cs technique to assess the soil erosion rates on an agricultural land in Oued el Maleh basin near Casablanca (Morocco). A small representative agricultural field was selected to investigate the soil degradation required by soil managers in this region. The transect approach was applied for sampling to identify the spatial redistribution of (137)Cs. The spatial variability of (137)Cs inventory has provided evidence of the importance of tillage process and the human effects on the redistribution of (137)Cs. The mean (137)Cs inventory was found about 842 Bq m(-2), this value corresponds to an erosion rate of 82 tha(-1) yr(-1) by applying simplified mass balance model in a preliminary estimation. When data on site characteristics were available, the refined mass balance model was applied to highlight the contribution of tillage effect in soil redistribution. The erosion rate was estimated about 50 tha(-1) yr(-1). The aspects related to the sampling procedures and the models for calculation of erosion rates are discussed.

Comparison of individual-based model output to data using a model of walleye pollock early life history in the Gulf of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinckley, Sarah; Parada, Carolina; Horne, John K.; Mazur, Michael; Woillez, Mathieu

2016-10-01

Biophysical individual-based models (IBMs) have been used to study aspects of early life history of marine fishes such as recruitment, connectivity of spawning and nursery areas, and marine reserve design. However, there is no consistent approach to validating the spatial outputs of these models. In this study, we hope to rectify this gap. We document additions to an existing individual-based biophysical model for Alaska walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), some simulations made with this model and methods that were used to describe and compare spatial output of the model versus field data derived from ichthyoplankton surveys in the Gulf of Alaska. We used visual methods (e.g. distributional centroids with directional ellipses), several indices (such as a Normalized Difference Index (NDI), and an Overlap Coefficient (OC), and several statistical methods: the Syrjala method, the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic, and a geostatistical method for comparing spatial indices. We assess the utility of these different methods in analyzing spatial output and comparing model output to data, and give recommendations for their appropriate use. Visual methods are useful for initial comparisons of model and data distributions. Metrics such as the NDI and OC give useful measures of co-location and overlap, but care must be taken in discretizing the fields into bins. The Getis-Ord Gi* statistic is useful to determine the patchiness of the fields. The Syrjala method is an easily implemented statistical measure of the difference between the fields, but does not give information on the details of the distributions. Finally, the geostatistical comparison of spatial indices gives good information of details of the distributions and whether they differ significantly between the model and the data. We conclude that each technique gives quite different information about the model-data distribution comparison, and that some are easy to apply and some more complex. We also give recommendations for a multistep process to validate spatial output from IBMs.

Temporal and spatial analysis of psittacosis in association with poultry farming in the Netherlands, 2000-2015.

PubMed

Hogerwerf, Lenny; Holstege, Manon M C; Benincà, Elisa; Dijkstra, Frederika; van der Hoek, Wim

2017-07-26

Human psittacosis is a highly under diagnosed zoonotic disease, commonly linked to psittacine birds. Psittacosis in birds, also known as avian chlamydiosis, is endemic in poultry, but the risk for people living close to poultry farms is unknown. Therefore, our study aimed to explore the temporal and spatial patterns of human psittacosis infections and identify possible associations with poultry farming in the Netherlands. We analysed data on 700 human cases of psittacosis notified between 01-01-2000 and 01-09-2015. First, we studied the temporal behaviour of psittacosis notifications by applying wavelet analysis. Then, to identify possible spatial patterns, we applied spatial cluster analysis. Finally, we investigated the possible spatial association between psittacosis notifications and data on the Dutch poultry sector at municipality level using a multivariable model. We found a large spatial cluster that covered a highly poultry-dense area but additional clusters were found in areas that had a low poultry density. There were marked geographical differences in the awareness of psittacosis and the amount and the type of laboratory diagnostics used for psittacosis, making it difficult to draw conclusions about the correlation between the large cluster and poultry density. The multivariable model showed that the presence of chicken processing plants and slaughter duck farms in a municipality was associated with a higher rate of human psittacosis notifications. The significance of the associations was influenced by the inclusion or exclusion of farm density in the model. Our temporal and spatial analyses showed weak associations between poultry-related variables and psittacosis notifications. Because of the low number of psittacosis notifications available for analysis, the power of our analysis was relative low. Because of the exploratory nature of this research, the associations found cannot be interpreted as evidence for airborne transmission of psittacosis from poultry to the general population. Further research is needed to determine the prevalence of C. psittaci in Dutch poultry. Also, efforts to promote PCR-based testing for C. psittaci and genotyping for source tracing are important to reduce the diagnostic deficit, and to provide better estimates of the human psittacosis burden, and the possible role of poultry.

Ames interactive molecular model building system - A 3-D computer modelling system applied to the study of the origin of life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coeckelenbergh, Y.; Macelroy, R. D.; Rein, R.

1978-01-01

The investigation of specific interactions among biological molecules must take into consideration the stereochemistry of the structures. Thus, models of the molecules are essential for describing the spatial organization of potentially interacting groups, and estimations of conformation are required for a description of spatial organization. Both the function of visualizing molecules, and that of estimating conformation through calculations of energy, are part of the molecular modeling system described in the present paper. The potential uses of the system in investigating some aspects of the origin of life rest on the assumption that translation of conformation from genetic elements to catalytic elements would have been required for the development of the first replicating systems subject to the process of biological evolution.

Fractional Order Spatiotemporal Chaos with Delay in Spatial Nonlinear Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yingqian; Wang, Xingyuan; Liu, Liyan; Liu, Jia

We investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics with fractional order differential logistic map with delay under nonlinear chaotic maps for spatial coupling connections. Here, the coupling methods between lattices are the nonlinear chaotic map coupling of lattices. The fractional order differential logistic map with delay breaks the limits of the range of parameter μ ∈ [3.75, 4] in the classical logistic map for chaotic states. The Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy density and universality, and bifurcation diagrams are employed to investigate the chaotic behaviors of the proposed model in this paper. The proposed model can also be applied for cryptography, which is verified in a color image encryption scheme in this paper.

Exploring links between juvenile offenders and social disorganization at a large map scale: a Bayesian spatial modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, Jane; Quick, Matthew

2013-01-01

This paper adopts a Bayesian spatial modeling approach to investigate the distribution of young offender residences in York Region, Southern Ontario, Canada, at the census dissemination area level. Few geographic researches have analyzed offender (as opposed to offense) data at a large map scale (i.e., using a relatively small areal unit of analysis) to minimize aggregation effects. Providing context is the social disorganization theory, which hypothesizes that areas with economic deprivation, high population turnover, and high ethnic heterogeneity exhibit social disorganization and are expected to facilitate higher instances of young offenders. Non-spatial and spatial Poisson models indicate that spatial methods are superior to non-spatial models with respect to model fit and that index of ethnic heterogeneity, residential mobility (1 year moving rate), and percentage of residents receiving government transfer payments are, respectively, the most significant explanatory variables related to young offender location. These findings provide overwhelming support for social disorganization theory as it applies to offender location in York Region, Ontario. Targeting areas where prevalence of young offenders could or could not be explained by social disorganization through decomposing the estimated risk map are helpful for dealing with juvenile offenders in the region. Results prompt discussion into geographically targeted police services and young offender placement pertaining to risk of recidivism. We discuss possible reasons for differences and similarities between the previous findings (that analyzed offense data and/or were conducted at a smaller map scale) and our findings, limitations of our study, and practical outcomes of this research from a law enforcement perspective.

Using remote sensing and machine learning for the spatial modelling of a bluetongue virus vector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van doninck, J.; Peters, J.; De Baets, B.; Ducheyne, E.; Verhoest, N. E. C.

2012-04-01

Bluetongue is a viral vector-borne disease transmitted between hosts, mostly cattle and small ruminants, by some species of Culicoides midges. Within the Mediterranean basin, C. imicola is the main vector of the bluetongue virus. The spatial distribution of this species is limited by a number of environmental factors, including temperature, soil properties and land cover. The identification of zones at risk of bluetongue outbreaks thus requires detailed information on these environmental factors, as well as appropriate epidemiological modelling techniques. We here give an overview of the environmental factors assumed to be constraining the spatial distribution of C. imicola, as identified in different studies. Subsequently, remote sensing products that can be used as proxies for these environmental constraints are presented. Remote sensing data are then used together with species occurrence data from the Spanish Bluetongue National Surveillance Programme to calibrate a supervised learning model, based on Random Forests, to model the probability of occurrence of the C. imicola midge. The model will then be applied for a pixel-based prediction over the Iberian peninsula using remote sensing products for habitat characterization.

Cross-scale assessment of potential habitat shifts in a rapidly changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Bella, Elizabeth S.; Carlson, Matthew L.; Graziano, Gino; Lamb, Melinda; Seefeldt, Steven S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

We assessed the ability of climatic, environmental, and anthropogenic variables to predict areas of high-risk for plant invasion and consider the relative importance and contribution of these predictor variables by considering two spatial scales in a region of rapidly changing climate. We created predictive distribution models, using Maxent, for three highly invasive plant species (Canada thistle, white sweetclover, and reed canarygrass) in Alaska at both a regional scale and a local scale. Regional scale models encompassed southern coastal Alaska and were developed from topographic and climatic data at a 2 km (1.2 mi) spatial resolution. Models were applied to future climate (2030). Local scale models were spatially nested within the regional area; these models incorporated physiographic and anthropogenic variables at a 30 m (98.4 ft) resolution. Regional and local models performed well (AUC values > 0.7), with the exception of one species at each spatial scale. Regional models predict an increase in area of suitable habitat for all species by 2030 with a general shift to higher elevation areas; however, the distribution of each species was driven by different climate and topographical variables. In contrast local models indicate that distance to right-of-ways and elevation are associated with habitat suitability for all three species at this spatial level. Combining results from regional models, capturing long-term distribution, and local models, capturing near-term establishment and distribution, offers a new and effective tool for highlighting at-risk areas and provides insight on how variables acting at different scales contribute to suitability predictions. The combinations also provides easy comparison, highlighting agreement between the two scales, where long-term distribution factors predict suitability while near-term do not and vice versa.

Spatial models reveal the microclimatic buffering capacity of old-growth forests

PubMed Central

Frey, Sarah J. K.; Hadley, Adam S.; Johnson, Sherri L.; Schulze, Mark; Jones, Julia A.; Betts, Matthew G.

2016-01-01

Climate change is predicted to cause widespread declines in biodiversity, but these predictions are derived from coarse-resolution climate models applied at global scales. Such models lack the capacity to incorporate microclimate variability, which is critical to biodiversity microrefugia. In forested montane regions, microclimate is thought to be influenced by combined effects of elevation, microtopography, and vegetation, but their relative effects at fine spatial scales are poorly known. We used boosted regression trees to model the spatial distribution of fine-scale, under-canopy air temperatures in mountainous terrain. Spatial models predicted observed independent test data well (r = 0.87). As expected, elevation strongly predicted temperatures, but vegetation and microtopography also exerted critical effects. Old-growth vegetation characteristics, measured using LiDAR (light detection and ranging), appeared to have an insulating effect; maximum spring monthly temperatures decreased by 2.5°C across the observed gradient in old-growth structure. These cooling effects across a gradient in forest structure are of similar magnitude to 50-year forecasts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and therefore have the potential to mitigate climate warming at local scales. Management strategies to conserve old-growth characteristics and to curb current rates of primary forest loss could maintain microrefugia, enhancing biodiversity persistence in mountainous systems under climate warming. PMID:27152339

The inclusion of ocean-current effects in a tidal-current model as forcing in the convection term and its application to the mesoscale fate of CO2 seeping from the seafloor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakaizawa, Ryosuke; Kawai, Takaya; Sato, Toru; Oyama, Hiroyuki; Tsumune, Daisuke; Tsubono, Takaki; Goto, Koichi

2018-03-01

The target seas of tidal-current models are usually semi-closed bays, minimally affected by ocean currents. For these models, tidal currents are simulated in computational domains with a spatial scale of a couple hundred kilometers or less, by setting tidal elevations at their open boundaries. However, when ocean currents cannot be ignored in the sea areas of interest, such as in open seas near coastlines, it is necessary to include ocean-current effects in these tidal-current models. In this study, we developed a numerical method to analyze tidal currents near coasts by incorporating pre-calculated ocean-current velocities. First, a large regional-scale simulation with a spatial scale of several thousand kilometers was conducted and temporal changes in the ocean-current velocity at each grid point were stored. Next, the spatially and temporally interpolated ocean-current velocity was incorporated as forcing into the cross terms of the convection term of a tidal-current model having computational domains with spatial scales of hundreds of kilometers or less. Then, we applied this method to the diffusion of dissolved CO2 in a sea area off Tomakomai, Japan, and compared the numerical results and measurements to validate the proposed method.

Spatial models reveal the microclimatic buffering capacity of old-growth forests.

PubMed

Frey, Sarah J K; Hadley, Adam S; Johnson, Sherri L; Schulze, Mark; Jones, Julia A; Betts, Matthew G

2016-04-01

Climate change is predicted to cause widespread declines in biodiversity, but these predictions are derived from coarse-resolution climate models applied at global scales. Such models lack the capacity to incorporate microclimate variability, which is critical to biodiversity microrefugia. In forested montane regions, microclimate is thought to be influenced by combined effects of elevation, microtopography, and vegetation, but their relative effects at fine spatial scales are poorly known. We used boosted regression trees to model the spatial distribution of fine-scale, under-canopy air temperatures in mountainous terrain. Spatial models predicted observed independent test data well (r = 0.87). As expected, elevation strongly predicted temperatures, but vegetation and microtopography also exerted critical effects. Old-growth vegetation characteristics, measured using LiDAR (light detection and ranging), appeared to have an insulating effect; maximum spring monthly temperatures decreased by 2.5°C across the observed gradient in old-growth structure. These cooling effects across a gradient in forest structure are of similar magnitude to 50-year forecasts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and therefore have the potential to mitigate climate warming at local scales. Management strategies to conserve old-growth characteristics and to curb current rates of primary forest loss could maintain microrefugia, enhancing biodiversity persistence in mountainous systems under climate warming.

Distributed multi-criteria model evaluation and spatial association analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherer, Laura; Pfister, Stephan

2015-04-01

Model performance, if evaluated, is often communicated by a single indicator and at an aggregated level; however, it does not embrace the trade-offs between different indicators and the inherent spatial heterogeneity of model efficiency. In this study, we simulated the water balance of the Mississippi watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model was calibrated against monthly river discharge at 131 measurement stations. Its time series were bisected to allow for subsequent validation at the same gauges. Furthermore, the model was validated against evapotranspiration which was available as a continuous raster based on remote sensing. The model performance was evaluated for each of the 451 sub-watersheds using four different criteria: 1) Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), 2) percent bias (PBIAS), 3) root mean square error (RMSE) normalized to standard deviation (RSR), as well as 4) a combined indicator of the squared correlation coefficient and the linear regression slope (bR2). Conditions that might lead to a poor model performance include aridity, a very flat and steep relief, snowfall and dams, as indicated by previous research. In an attempt to explain spatial differences in model efficiency, the goodness of the model was spatially compared to these four phenomena by means of a bivariate spatial association measure which combines Pearson's correlation coefficient and Moran's index for spatial autocorrelation. In order to assess the model performance of the Mississippi watershed as a whole, three different averages of the sub-watershed results were computed by 1) applying equal weights, 2) weighting by the mean observed river discharge, 3) weighting by the upstream catchment area and the square root of the time series length. Ratings of model performance differed significantly in space and according to efficiency criterion. The model performed much better in the humid Eastern region than in the arid Western region which was confirmed by the high spatial association with the aridity index (ratio of mean annual precipitation to mean annual potential evapotranspiration). This association was still significant when controlling for slopes which manifested the second highest spatial association. In line with these findings, overall model efficiency of the entire Mississippi watershed appeared better when weighted with mean observed river discharge. Furthermore, the model received the highest rating with regards to PBIAS and was judged worst when considering NSE as the most comprehensive indicator. No universal performance indicator exists that considers all aspects of a hydrograph. Therefore, sound model evaluation must take into account multiple criteria. Since model efficiency varies in space which is masked by aggregated ratings spatially explicit model goodness should be communicated as standard praxis - at least as a measure of spatial variability of indicators. Furthermore, transparent documentation of the evaluation procedure also with regards to weighting of aggregated model performance is crucial but often lacking in published research. Finally, the high spatial association between model performance and aridity highlights the need to improve modelling schemes for arid conditions as priority over other aspects that might weaken model goodness.

Estimating black bear density using DNA data from hair snares

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, B.; Royle, J. Andrew; Wegan, M.T.; Rainbolt, R.E.; Curtis, P.D.

2010-01-01

DNA-based mark-recapture has become a methodological cornerstone of research focused on bear species. The objective of such studies is often to estimate population size; however, doing so is frequently complicated by movement of individual bears. Movement affects the probability of detection and the assumption of closure of the population required in most models. To mitigate the bias caused by movement of individuals, population size and density estimates are often adjusted using ad hoc methods, including buffering the minimum polygon of the trapping array. We used a hierarchical, spatial capturerecapture model that contains explicit components for the spatial-point process that governs the distribution of individuals and their exposure to (via movement), and detection by, traps. We modeled detection probability as a function of each individual's distance to the trap and an indicator variable for previous capture to account for possible behavioral responses. We applied our model to a 2006 hair-snare study of a black bear (Ursus americanus) population in northern New York, USA. Based on the microsatellite marker analysis of collected hair samples, 47 individuals were identified. We estimated mean density at 0.20 bears/km2. A positive estimate of the indicator variable suggests that bears are attracted to baited sites; therefore, including a trap-dependence covariate is important when using bait to attract individuals. Bayesian analysis of the model was implemented in WinBUGS, and we provide the model specification. The model can be applied to any spatially organized trapping array (hair snares, camera traps, mist nests, etc.) to estimate density and can also account for heterogeneity and covariate information at the trap or individual level. ?? The Wildlife Society.

Excellent approach to modeling urban expansion by fuzzy cellular automata: agent base model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajavigodellou, Yousef; Alesheikh, Ali A.; Mohammed, Abdulrazak A. S.; Chapi, Kamran

2014-09-01

Recently, the interaction between humans and their environment is the one of important challenges in the world. Landuse/ cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. The complexity and dynamics of urban systems make the applicable practice of urban modeling very difficult. With the increased computational power and the greater availability of spatial data, micro-simulation such as the agent based and cellular automata simulation methods, has been developed by geographers, planners, and scholars, and it has shown great potential for representing and simulating the complexity of the dynamic processes involved in urban growth and land use change. This paper presents Fuzzy Cellular Automata in Geospatial Information System and remote Sensing to simulated and predicted urban expansion pattern. These FCA-based dynamic spatial urban models provide an improved ability to forecast and assess future urban growth and to create planning scenarios, allowing us to explore the potential impacts of simulations that correspond to urban planning and management policies. A fuzzy inference guided cellular automata approach. Semantic or linguistic knowledge on Land use change is expressed as fuzzy rules, based on which fuzzy inference is applied to determine the urban development potential for each pixel. The model integrates an ABM (agent-based model) and FCA (Fuzzy Cellular Automata) to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Based on this model rapid development and green land protection under the influences of the behaviors and decision modes of regional authority agents, real estate developer agents, resident agents and non- resident agents and their interactions have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Erbil metropolitan region.

Extreme storm surge modelling in the North Sea. The role of the sea state, forcing frequency and spatial forcing resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridder, Nina; de Vries, Hylke; Drijfhout, Sybren; van den Brink, Henk; van Meijgaard, Erik; de Vries, Hans

2018-02-01

This study shows that storm surge model performance in the North Sea is mostly unaffected by the application of temporal variations of surface drag due to changes in sea state provided the choice of a suitable constant Charnock parameter in the sea-state-independent case. Including essential meteorological features on smaller scales and minimising interpolation errors by increasing forcing data resolution are shown to be more important for the improvement of model performance particularly at the high tail of the probability distribution. This is found in a modelling study using WAQUA/DCSMv5 by evaluating the influence of a realistic air-sea momentum transfer parameterization and comparing it to the influence of changes in the spatial and temporal resolution of the applied forcing fields in an effort to support the improvement of impact and climate analysis studies. Particular attention is given to the representation of extreme water levels over the past decades based on the example of the Netherlands. For this, WAQUA/DCSMv5 is forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Model results are obtained from a set of different forcing fields, which either (i) include a wave-state-dependent Charnock parameter or (ii) apply a constant Charnock parameter ( α C h = 0.032) tuned for young sea states in the North Sea, but differ in their spatial and/or temporal resolution. Increasing forcing field resolution from roughly 79 to 12 km through dynamically downscaling can reduce the modelled low bias, depending on coastal station, by up to 0.25 m for the modelled extreme water levels with a 1-year return period and between 0.1 m and 0.5 m for extreme surge heights.

Modeled and monitored variation in space and time of PCB-153 concentrations in air, sediment, soil and aquatic biota on a European scale.

PubMed

Hauck, Mara; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Hollander, Anne; Hendriks, A Jan; van de Meent, Dik

2010-08-15

We evaluated various modeling options for estimating concentrations of PCB-153 in the environment and in biota across Europe, using a nested multimedia fate model coupled with a bioaccumulation model. The most detailed model set up estimates concentrations in air, soil, fresh water sediment and fresh water biota with spatially explicit environmental characteristics and spatially explicit emissions to air and water in the period 1930-2005. Model performance was evaluated with the root mean square error (RMSE(log)), based on the difference between estimated and measured concentrations. The RMSE(log) was 5.4 for air, 5.6-6.3 for sediment and biota, and 5.5 for soil in the most detailed model scenario. Generally, model estimations tended to underestimate observed values for all compartments, except air. The decline in observed concentrations was also slightly underestimated by the model for the period where measurements were available (1989-2002). Applying a generic model setup with averaged emissions and averaged environmental characteristics, the RMSE(log) increased to 21 for air and 49 for sediment. For soil the RMSE(log) decreased to 3.5. We found that including spatial variation in emissions was most relevant for all compartments, except soil, while including spatial variation in environmental characteristics was less influential. For improving predictions of concentrations in sediment and aquatic biota, including emissions to water was found to be relevant as well. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of a glimpsing model to understand the performance of listeners with and without hearing loss in spatialized speech mixtures

PubMed Central

Best, Virginia; Mason, Christine R.; Swaminathan, Jayaganesh; Roverud, Elin; Kidd, Gerald

2017-01-01

In many situations, listeners with sensorineural hearing loss demonstrate reduced spatial release from masking compared to listeners with normal hearing. This deficit is particularly evident in the “symmetric masker” paradigm in which competing talkers are located to either side of a central target talker. However, there is some evidence that reduced target audibility (rather than a spatial deficit per se) under conditions of spatial separation may contribute to the observed deficit. In this study a simple “glimpsing” model (applied separately to each ear) was used to isolate the target information that is potentially available in binaural speech mixtures. Intelligibility of these glimpsed stimuli was then measured directly. Differences between normally hearing and hearing-impaired listeners observed in the natural binaural condition persisted for the glimpsed condition, despite the fact that the task no longer required segregation or spatial processing. This result is consistent with the idea that the performance of listeners with hearing loss in the spatialized mixture was limited by their ability to identify the target speech based on sparse glimpses, possibly as a result of some of those glimpses being inaudible. PMID:28147587

The Bayesian group lasso for confounded spatial data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Hanks, Ephraim M.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.

2017-01-01

Generalized linear mixed models for spatial processes are widely used in applied statistics. In many applications of the spatial generalized linear mixed model (SGLMM), the goal is to obtain inference about regression coefficients while achieving optimal predictive ability. When implementing the SGLMM, multicollinearity among covariates and the spatial random effects can make computation challenging and influence inference. We present a Bayesian group lasso prior with a single tuning parameter that can be chosen to optimize predictive ability of the SGLMM and jointly regularize the regression coefficients and spatial random effect. We implement the group lasso SGLMM using efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and demonstrate how multicollinearity among covariates and the spatial random effect can be monitored as a derived quantity. To test our method, we compared several parameterizations of the SGLMM using simulated data and two examples from plant ecology and disease ecology. In all examples, problematic levels multicollinearity occurred and influenced sampling efficiency and inference. We found that the group lasso prior resulted in roughly twice the effective sample size for MCMC samples of regression coefficients and can have higher and less variable predictive accuracy based on out-of-sample data when compared to the standard SGLMM.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Coronal Loops Using Seismology of Damped Kink Oscillations and Forward Modeling of EUV Intensity Profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascoe, D. J.; Anfinogentov, S. A.; Goddard, C. R.; Nakariakov, V. M.

2018-06-01

The shape of the damping profile of kink oscillations in coronal loops has recently allowed the transverse density profile of the loop to be estimated. This requires accurate measurement of the damping profile that can distinguish the Gaussian and exponential damping regimes, otherwise there are more unknowns than observables. Forward modeling of the transverse intensity profile may also be used to estimate the width of the inhomogeneous layer of a loop, providing an independent estimate of one of these unknowns. We analyze an oscillating loop for which the seismological determination of the transverse structure is inconclusive except when supplemented by additional spatial information from the transverse intensity profile. Our temporal analysis describes the motion of a coronal loop as a kink oscillation damped by resonant absorption, and our spatial analysis is based on forward modeling the transverse EUV intensity profile of the loop under the isothermal and optically thin approximations. We use Bayesian analysis and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling to apply our spatial and temporal models both individually and simultaneously to our data and compare the results with numerical simulations. Combining the two methods allows both the inhomogeneous layer width and density contrast to be calculated, which is not possible for the same data when each method is applied individually. We demonstrate that the assumption of an exponential damping profile leads to a significantly larger error in the inferred density contrast ratio compared with a Gaussian damping profile.

Space-time airborne disease mapping applied to detect specific behaviour of varicella in Valencia, Spain.

PubMed

Iftimi, Adina; Montes, Francisco; Santiyán, Ana Míguez; Martínez-Ruiz, Francisco

2015-01-01

Airborne diseases are one of humanity's most feared sicknesses and have regularly caused concern among specialists. Varicella is an airborne disease which usually affects children before the age of 10. Because of its nature, varicella gives rise to interesting spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal patterns. This paper studies spatio-temporal exploratory analysis tools to detect specific behaviour of varicella in the city of Valencia, Spain, from 2008 to 2013. These methods have shown a significant association between the spatial and the temporal component, confirmed by the space-time models applied to the data. High relative risk of varicella is observed in economically disadvantaged regions, areas less involved in vaccination programmes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An integrated Bayesian model for estimating the long-term health effects of air pollution by fusing modelled and measured pollution data: A case study of nitrogen dioxide concentrations in Scotland.

PubMed

Huang, Guowen; Lee, Duncan; Scott, Marian

2015-01-01

The long-term health effects of air pollution can be estimated using a spatio-temporal ecological study, where the disease data are counts of hospital admissions from populations in small areal units at yearly intervals. Spatially representative pollution concentrations for each areal unit are typically estimated by applying Kriging to data from a sparse monitoring network, or by computing averages over grid level concentrations from an atmospheric dispersion model. We propose a novel fusion model for estimating spatially aggregated pollution concentrations using both the modelled and monitored data, and relate these concentrations to respiratory disease in a new study in Scotland between 2007 and 2011. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Technical Note: Detective quantum efficiency simulation of a-Se imaging detectors using ARTEMIS.

PubMed

Fang, Yuan; Ito, Takaaki; Nariyuki, Fumito; Kuwabara, Takao; Badano, Aldo; Karim, Karim S

2017-08-01

This work studies the detective quantum efficiency (DQE) of a-Se-based solid state x-ray detectors for medical imaging applications using ARTEMIS, a Monte Carlo simulation tool for modeling x-ray photon, electron and charged carrier transport in semiconductors with the presence of applied electric field. ARTEMIS is used to model the signal formation process in a-Se. The simulation model includes x-ray photon and high-energy electron interactions, and detailed electron-hole pair transport with applied detector bias taking into account drift, diffusion, Coulomb interactions, recombination and trapping. For experimental validation, the DQE performance of prototype a-Se detectors is measured following IEC Testing Standard 62220-1-3. Comparison of simulated and experimental DQE results show reasonable agreement for RQA beam qualities. Experimental validation demonstrated within 5% percentage difference between simulation and experimental DQE results for spatial frequency above 0.25 cycles/mm using uniform applied electric field for RQA beam qualities (RQA5, RQA7 and RQA9). Results include two different prototype detectors with thicknesses of 240 μm and 1 mm. ARTEMIS can be used to model the DQE of a-Se detectors as a function of x-ray energy, detector thickness, and spatial frequency. The ARTEMIS model can be used to improve understanding of the physics of x-ray interactions in a-Se and in optimization studies for the development of novel medical imaging applications. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Spatial distribution of nuclei in progressive nucleation: Modeling and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomellini, Massimo

2018-04-01

Phase transformations ruled by non-simultaneous nucleation and growth do not lead to random distribution of nuclei. Since nucleation is only allowed in the untransformed portion of space, positions of nuclei are correlated. In this article an analytical approach is presented for computing pair-correlation function of nuclei in progressive nucleation. This quantity is further employed for characterizing the spatial distribution of nuclei through the nearest neighbor distribution function. The modeling is developed for nucleation in 2D space with power growth law and it is applied to describe electrochemical nucleation where correlation effects are significant. Comparison with both computer simulations and experimental data lends support to the model which gives insights into the transition from Poissonian to correlated nearest neighbor probability density.

Spatial luminescence imaging of dopant incorporation in CdTe Films

DOE PAGES

Guthrey, Harvey; Moseley, John; Colegrove, Eric; ...

2017-01-25

State-of-the-art cathodoluminescence (CL) spectrum imaging with spectrum-per-pixel CL emission mapping is applied to spatially profile how dopant elements are incorporated into Cadmium telluride (CdTe). Emission spectra and intensity monitor the spatial distribution of additional charge carriers through characteristic variations in the CL emission based on computational modeling. Our results show that grain boundaries play a role in incorporating dopants in CdTe exposed to copper, phosphorus, and intrinsic point defects in CdTe. Furthermore, the image analysis provides critical, unique feedback to understand dopant incorporation and activation in the inhomogeneous CdTe material, which has struggled to reach high levels of hole density.

Compressive self-interference Fresnel digital holography with faithful reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Yuhong; Man, Tianlong; Han, Ying; Zhou, Hongqiang; Wang, Dayong

2017-05-01

We developed compressive self-interference digital holographic approach that allows retrieving three-dimensional information of the spatially incoherent objects from single-shot captured hologram. The Fresnel incoherent correlation holography is combined with parallel phase-shifting technique to instantaneously obtain spatial-multiplexed phase-shifting holograms. The recording scheme is regarded as compressive forward sensing model, thus the compressive-sensing-based reconstruction algorithm is implemented to reconstruct the original object from the under sampled demultiplexed sub-holograms. The concept was verified by simulations and experiments with simulating use of the polarizer array. The proposed technique has great potential to be applied in 3D tracking of spatially incoherent samples.

Application of Raytracing Through the High Resolution Numerical Weather Model HIRLAM for the Analysis of European VLBI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garcia-Espada, Susana; Haas, Rudiger; Colomer, Francisco

2010-01-01

An important limitation for the precision in the results obtained by space geodetic techniques like VLBI and GPS are tropospheric delays caused by the neutral atmosphere, see e.g. [1]. In recent years numerical weather models (NWM) have been applied to improve mapping functions which are used for tropospheric delay modeling in VLBI and GPS data analyses. In this manuscript we use raytracing to calculate slant delays and apply these to the analysis of Europe VLBI data. The raytracing is performed through the limited area numerical weather prediction (NWP) model HIRLAM. The advantages of this model are high spatial (0.2 deg. x 0.2 deg.) and high temporal resolution (in prediction mode three hours).

Unbiased Rare Event Sampling in Spatial Stochastic Systems Biology Models Using a Weighted Ensemble of Trajectories

PubMed Central

Donovan, Rory M.; Tapia, Jose-Juan; Sullivan, Devin P.; Faeder, James R.; Murphy, Robert F.; Dittrich, Markus; Zuckerman, Daniel M.

2016-01-01

The long-term goal of connecting scales in biological simulation can be facilitated by scale-agnostic methods. We demonstrate that the weighted ensemble (WE) strategy, initially developed for molecular simulations, applies effectively to spatially resolved cell-scale simulations. The WE approach runs an ensemble of parallel trajectories with assigned weights and uses a statistical resampling strategy of replicating and pruning trajectories to focus computational effort on difficult-to-sample regions. The method can also generate unbiased estimates of non-equilibrium and equilibrium observables, sometimes with significantly less aggregate computing time than would be possible using standard parallelization. Here, we use WE to orchestrate particle-based kinetic Monte Carlo simulations, which include spatial geometry (e.g., of organelles, plasma membrane) and biochemical interactions among mobile molecular species. We study a series of models exhibiting spatial, temporal and biochemical complexity and show that although WE has important limitations, it can achieve performance significantly exceeding standard parallel simulation—by orders of magnitude for some observables. PMID:26845334

Seafloor observations indicate spatial separation of coseismic and postseismic slips in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iinuma, Takeshi; Hino, Ryota; Uchida, Naoki; Nakamura, Wataru; Kido, Motoyuki; Osada, Yukihito; Miura, Satoshi

2016-11-01

Large interplate earthquakes are often followed by postseismic slip that is considered to occur in areas surrounding the coseismic ruptures. Such spatial separation is expected from the difference in frictional and material properties in and around the faults. However, even though the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake ruptured a vast area on the plate interface, the estimation of high-resolution slip is usually difficult because of the lack of seafloor geodetic data. Here using the seafloor and terrestrial geodetic data, we investigated the postseismic slip to examine whether it was spatially separated with the coseismic slip by applying a comprehensive finite-element method model to subtract the viscoelastic components from the observed postseismic displacements. The high-resolution co- and postseismic slip distributions clarified the spatial separation, which also agreed with the activities of interplate and repeating earthquakes. These findings suggest that the conventional frictional property model is valid for the source region of gigantic earthquakes.

Seafloor observations indicate spatial separation of coseismic and postseismic slips in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

PubMed Central

Iinuma, Takeshi; Hino, Ryota; Uchida, Naoki; Nakamura, Wataru; Kido, Motoyuki; Osada, Yukihito; Miura, Satoshi

2016-01-01

Large interplate earthquakes are often followed by postseismic slip that is considered to occur in areas surrounding the coseismic ruptures. Such spatial separation is expected from the difference in frictional and material properties in and around the faults. However, even though the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake ruptured a vast area on the plate interface, the estimation of high-resolution slip is usually difficult because of the lack of seafloor geodetic data. Here using the seafloor and terrestrial geodetic data, we investigated the postseismic slip to examine whether it was spatially separated with the coseismic slip by applying a comprehensive finite-element method model to subtract the viscoelastic components from the observed postseismic displacements. The high-resolution co- and postseismic slip distributions clarified the spatial separation, which also agreed with the activities of interplate and repeating earthquakes. These findings suggest that the conventional frictional property model is valid for the source region of gigantic earthquakes. PMID:27853138

Spatial and temporal variability in rates of landsliding in seismically active mountain ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, R.; Petley, D.; Rosser, N.; Densmore, A.; Gunasekera, R.; Brain, M.

2012-04-01

Where earthquake and precipitation driven disasters occur in steep, mountainous regions, landslides often account for a large proportion of the associated damage and losses. This research addresses spatial and temporal variability in rates of landslide occurrence in seismically active mountain ranges as a step towards developing better regional scale prediction of losses in such events. In the first part of this paper we attempt to explain reductively the variability in spatial rates of landslide occurrence, using data from five major earthquakes. This is achieved by fitting a regression-based conditional probability model to spatial probabilities of landslide occurrence, using as predictor variables proxies for spatial patterns of seismic ground motion and modelled hillslope stability. A combined model for all earthquakes performs well in hindcasting spatial probabilities of landslide occurrence as a function of readily-attainable spatial variables. We present validation of the model and demonstrate the extent to which it may be applied globally to derive landslide probabilities for future earthquakes. In part two we examine the temporal behaviour of rates of landslide occurrence. This is achieved through numerical modelling to simulate the behaviour of a hypothetical landscape. The model landscape is composed of hillslopes that continually weaken, fail and reset in response to temporally-discrete forcing events that represent earthquakes. Hillslopes with different geometries require different amounts of weakening to fail, such that they fail and reset at different temporal rates. Our results suggest that probabilities of landslide occurrence are not temporally constant, but rather vary with time, irrespective of changes in forcing event magnitudes or environmental conditions. Various parameters influencing the magnitude and temporal patterns of this variability are identified, highlighting areas where future research is needed. This model has important implications for landslide hazard and risk analysis in mountain areas as existing techniques usually assume that susceptibility to failure does not change with time.

Predicting the spatial extent of liquefaction from geospatial and earthquake specific parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Jing; Baise, Laurie G.; Thompson, Eric M.; Wald, David J.; Knudsen, Keith L.; Deodatis, George; Ellingwood, Bruce R.; Frangopol, Dan M.

2014-01-01

The spatially extensive damage from the 2010-2011 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake events are a reminder of the need for liquefaction hazard maps for anticipating damage from future earthquakes. Liquefaction hazard mapping as traditionally relied on detailed geologic mapping and expensive site studies. These traditional techniques are difficult to apply globally for rapid response or loss estimation. We have developed a logistic regression model to predict the probability of liquefaction occurrence in coastal sedimentary areas as a function of simple and globally available geospatial features (e.g., derived from digital elevation models) and standard earthquake-specific intensity data (e.g., peak ground acceleration). Some of the geospatial explanatory variables that we consider are taken from the hydrology community, which has a long tradition of using remotely sensed data as proxies for subsurface parameters. As a result of using high resolution, remotely-sensed, and spatially continuous data as a proxy for important subsurface parameters such as soil density and soil saturation, and by using a probabilistic modeling framework, our liquefaction model inherently includes the natural spatial variability of liquefaction occurrence and provides an estimate of spatial extent of liquefaction for a given earthquake. To provide a quantitative check on how the predicted probabilities relate to spatial extent of liquefaction, we report the frequency of observed liquefaction features within a range of predicted probabilities. The percentage of liquefaction is the areal extent of observed liquefaction within a given probability contour. The regional model and the results show that there is a strong relationship between the predicted probability and the observed percentage of liquefaction. Visual inspection of the probability contours for each event also indicates that the pattern of liquefaction is well represented by the model.

GIS Based Distributed Runoff Predictions in Variable Source Area Watersheds Employing the SCS-Curve Number

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steenhuis, T. S.; Mendoza, G.; Lyon, S. W.; Gerard Marchant, P.; Walter, M. T.; Schneiderman, E.

2003-04-01

Because the traditional Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) approach continues to be ubiquitously used in GIS-BASED water quality models, new application methods are needed that are consistent with variable source area (VSA) hydrological processes in the landscape. We developed within an integrated GIS modeling environment a distributed approach for applying the traditional SCS-CN equation to watersheds where VSA hydrology is a dominant process. Spatial representation of hydrologic processes is important for watershed planning because restricting potentially polluting activities from runoff source areas is fundamental to controlling non-point source pollution. The methodology presented here uses the traditional SCS-CN method to predict runoff volume and spatial extent of saturated areas and uses a topographic index to distribute runoff source areas through watersheds. The resulting distributed CN-VSA method was incorporated in an existing GWLF water quality model and applied to sub-watersheds of the Delaware basin in the Catskill Mountains region of New York State. We found that the distributed CN-VSA approach provided a physically-based method that gives realistic results for watersheds with VSA hydrology.

Validation databases for simulation models: aboveground biomass and net primary productive, (NPP) estimation using eastwide FIA data

Treesearch

Jennifer C. Jenkins; Richard A. Birdsey

2000-01-01

As interest grows in the role of forest growth in the carbon cycle, and as simulation models are applied to predict future forest productivity at large spatial scales, the need for reliable and field-based data for evaluation of model estimates is clear. We created estimates of potential forest biomass and annual aboveground production for the Chesapeake Bay watershed...

Hierarchical models for estimating density from DNA mark-recapture studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, B.; Royle, J. Andrew; Wegan, M.T.

2009-01-01

Genetic sampling is increasingly used as a tool by wildlife biologists and managers to estimate abundance and density of species. Typically, DNA is used to identify individuals captured in an array of traps ( e. g., baited hair snares) from which individual encounter histories are derived. Standard methods for estimating the size of a closed population can be applied to such data. However, due to the movement of individuals on and off the trapping array during sampling, the area over which individuals are exposed to trapping is unknown, and so obtaining unbiased estimates of density has proved difficult. We propose a hierarchical spatial capture-recapture model which contains explicit models for the spatial point process governing the distribution of individuals and their exposure to (via movement) and detection by traps. Detection probability is modeled as a function of each individual's distance to the trap. We applied this model to a black bear (Ursus americanus) study conducted in 2006 using a hair-snare trap array in the Adirondack region of New York, USA. We estimated the density of bears to be 0.159 bears/km2, which is lower than the estimated density (0.410 bears/km2) based on standard closed population techniques. A Bayesian analysis of the model is fully implemented in the software program WinBUGS.

Catchment hydrological responses to forest harvest amount and spatial pattern

EPA Science Inventory

Forest harvest effects on streamflow dynamics have been well described experimentally, but a clear understanding of process-level hydrological controls can be difficult to ascertain from data alone. We apply a new model, Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessments (VE...

High Incidence of Breast Cancer in Light-Polluted Areas with Spatial Effects in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Yun Jeong; Park, Man Sik; Lee, Eunil; Choi, Jae Wook

2016-01-01

We have reported a high prevalence of breast cancer in light-polluted areas in Korea. However, it is necessary to analyze the spatial effects of light polluted areas on breast cancer because light pollution levels are correlated with region proximity to central urbanized areas in studied cities. In this study, we applied a spatial regression method (an intrinsic conditional autoregressive [iCAR] model) to analyze the relationship between the incidence of breast cancer and artificial light at night (ALAN) levels in 25 regions including central city, urbanized, and rural areas. By Poisson regression analysis, there was a significant correlation between ALAN, alcohol consumption rates, and the incidence of breast cancer. We also found significant spatial effects between ALAN and the incidence of breast cancer, with an increase in the deviance information criterion (DIC) from 374.3 to 348.6 and an increase in R2 from 0.574 to 0.667. Therefore, spatial analysis (an iCAR model) is more appropriate for assessing ALAN effects on breast cancer. To our knowledge, this study is the first to show spatial effects of light pollution on breast cancer, despite the limitations of an ecological study. We suggest that a decrease in ALAN could reduce breast cancer more than expected because of spatial effects.

Mapping soil landscape as spatial continua: The Neural Network Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, A.-Xing

2000-03-01

A neural network approach was developed to populate a soil similarity model that was designed to represent soil landscape as spatial continua for hydroecological modeling at watersheds of mesoscale size. The approach employs multilayer feed forward neural networks. The input to the network was data on a set of soil formative environmental factors; the output from the network was a set of similarity values to a set of prescribed soil classes. The network was trained using a conjugate gradient algorithm in combination with a simulated annealing technique to learn the relationships between a set of prescribed soils and their environmental factors. Once trained, the network was used to compute for every location in an area the similarity values of the soil to the set of prescribed soil classes. The similarity values were then used to produce detailed soil spatial information. The approach also included a Geographic Information System procedure for selecting representative training and testing samples and a process of determining the network internal structure. The approach was applied to soil mapping in a watershed, the Lubrecht Experimental Forest, in western Montana. The case study showed that the soil spatial information derived using the neural network approach reveals much greater spatial detail and has a higher quality than that derived from the conventional soil map. Implications of this detailed soil spatial information for hydroecological modeling at the watershed scale are also discussed.

A six-year grazing exclusion changed plant species diversity of a Stipa breviflora desert steppe community, northern China.

PubMed

Wang, Xing; Yang, Xinguo; Wang, Lei; Chen, Lin; Song, Naiping; Gu, Junlong; Xue, Yi

2018-01-01

Excluding grazers is one of most efficient ways to restore degraded grasslands in desert-steppe communities, but may negatively affect the recovery of plant species diversity. However, diversity differences between grazed and fenced grasslands in desert-steppe are poorly known. In a Stipa breviflora desert steppe community in Northern China, we established six plots to examine spatial patterns of plant species diversity under grazed and fenced conditions, respectively. We addressed three aspects of species diversity: (1) The logistic, exponential and power models were used to describe the species-area curve (SAR). Species richness, abundance and Shannon diversity values change differently with increasing sampling areas inside and outside of the fence. The best fitted model for SAR was the logistic model. Excluding grazers had a significant impact on the shape of SAR. (2) Variograms was applied to examine the spatial characteristics of plant species diversity. We found strong spatial autocorrelations in the diversity variables both inside and outside the fence. After grazing exclusion, the spatial heterogeneity decreased in species richness, increased in abundance and did not change in Shannon diversity. (3) We used variance partitioning to determine the relative contributions of spatial and environmental factors to plant species diversity patterns. Environmental factors explained the largest proportion of variation in species diversity, while spatial factors contributed little. Our results suggest that grazing enclosures decreased species diversity patterns and the spatial pattern of the S. breviflora desert steppe community was predictable.

The relationship between the spatial scaling of biodiversity and ecosystem stability

PubMed Central

Delsol, Robin; Loreau, Michel; Haegeman, Bart

2018-01-01

Aim Ecosystem stability and its link with biodiversity have mainly been studied at the local scale. Here we present a simple theoretical model to address the joint dependence of diversity and stability on spatial scale, from local to continental. Methods The notion of stability we use is based on the temporal variability of an ecosystem-level property, such as primary productivity. In this way, our model integrates the well-known species–area relationship (SAR) with a recent proposal to quantify the spatial scaling of stability, called the invariability–area relationship (IAR). Results We show that the link between the two relationships strongly depends on whether the temporal fluctuations of the ecosystem property of interest are more correlated within than between species. If fluctuations are correlated within species but not between them, then the IAR is strongly constrained by the SAR. If instead individual fluctuations are only correlated by spatial proximity, then the IAR is unrelated to the SAR. We apply these two correlation assumptions to explore the effects of species loss and habitat destruction on stability, and find a rich variety of multi-scale spatial dependencies, with marked differences between the two assumptions. Main conclusions The dependence of ecosystem stability on biodiversity across spatial scales is governed by the spatial decay of correlations within and between species. Our work provides a point of reference for mechanistic models and data analyses. More generally, it illustrates the relevance of macroecology for ecosystem functioning and stability. PMID:29651225

A six-year grazing exclusion changed plant species diversity of a Stipa breviflora desert steppe community, northern China

PubMed Central

Wang, Xing; Yang, Xinguo; Wang, Lei; Chen, Lin; Gu, Junlong; Xue, Yi

2018-01-01

Excluding grazers is one of most efficient ways to restore degraded grasslands in desert-steppe communities, but may negatively affect the recovery of plant species diversity. However, diversity differences between grazed and fenced grasslands in desert-steppe are poorly known. In a Stipa breviflora desert steppe community in Northern China, we established six plots to examine spatial patterns of plant species diversity under grazed and fenced conditions, respectively. We addressed three aspects of species diversity: (1) The logistic, exponential and power models were used to describe the species-area curve (SAR). Species richness, abundance and Shannon diversity values change differently with increasing sampling areas inside and outside of the fence. The best fitted model for SAR was the logistic model. Excluding grazers had a significant impact on the shape of SAR. (2) Variograms was applied to examine the spatial characteristics of plant species diversity. We found strong spatial autocorrelations in the diversity variables both inside and outside the fence. After grazing exclusion, the spatial heterogeneity decreased in species richness, increased in abundance and did not change in Shannon diversity. (3) We used variance partitioning to determine the relative contributions of spatial and environmental factors to plant species diversity patterns. Environmental factors explained the largest proportion of variation in species diversity, while spatial factors contributed little. Our results suggest that grazing enclosures decreased species diversity patterns and the spatial pattern of the S. breviflora desert steppe community was predictable. PMID:29456890

The Voronoi spatio-temporal data structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mioc, Darka

2002-04-01

Current GIS models cannot integrate the temporal dimension of spatial data easily. Indeed, current GISs do not support incremental (local) addition and deletion of spatial objects, and they can not support the temporal evolution of spatial data. Spatio-temporal facilities would be very useful in many GIS applications: harvesting and forest planning, cadastre, urban and regional planning, and emergency planning. The spatio-temporal model that can overcome these problems is based on a topological model---the Voronoi data structure. Voronoi diagrams are irregular tessellations of space, that adapt to spatial objects and therefore they are a synthesis of raster and vector spatial data models. The main advantage of the Voronoi data structure is its local and sequential map updates, which allows us to automatically record each event and performed map updates within the system. These map updates are executed through map construction commands that are composed of atomic actions (geometric algorithms for addition, deletion, and motion of spatial objects) on the dynamic Voronoi data structure. The formalization of map commands led to the development of a spatial language comprising a set of atomic operations or constructs on spatial primitives (points and lines), powerful enough to define the complex operations. This resulted in a new formal model for spatio-temporal change representation, where each update is uniquely characterized by the numbers of newly created and inactivated Voronoi regions. This is used for the extension of the model towards the hierarchical Voronoi data structure. In this model, spatio-temporal changes induced by map updates are preserved in a hierarchical data structure that combines events and corresponding changes in topology. This hierarchical Voronoi data structure has an implicit time ordering of events visible through changes in topology, and it is equivalent to an event structure that can support temporal data without precise temporal information. This formal model of spatio-temporal change representation is currently applied to retroactive map updates and visualization of map evolution. It offers new possibilities in the domains of temporal GIS, transaction processing, spatio-temporal queries, spatio-temporal analysis, map animation and map visualization.

Still searching for the Holy Grail: on the use of effective soil parameters for Parflow-CLM.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baroni, Gabriele; Schalge, Bernd; Rihani, Jehan; Attinger, Sabine

2015-04-01

In the last decades the advances in computer science have led to a growing number of coupled and distributed hydrological models based on Richards' equation. Several studies were conducted for understanding hydrological processes at different spatial and temporal scales and they showed promising uses of these types of models also in practical applications. However, these models are generally applied to scales different from that at which the equation is deduced and validated. For this reason, the models are implemented with effective soil parameters that, in principle, should preserve the water fluxes that would have been estimated assuming the finer resolution scale. In this context, the reduction in spatial discretization becomes a trade-off between complexity and performance of the model. The aim of the present contribution is to assess the performance of Parflow-CLM implemented at different spatial scales. A virtual experiment based on data available for the Neckar catchment (Germany) is used as reference at 100x100m resolution. Different upscaling rules for the soil hydraulic parameters are used for coarsening the model up to 1x1km. The analysis is carried out based on different model output e.g., river discharge, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and groundwater recharge. The effects of soil variability, correlation length and spatial distribution over the water flow direction on the simulation results are discussed. Further researches aim to quantify the related uncertainty in model output and the possibility to fill in the model structure inadequacy with data assimilation techniques.

Searching for the right scale in catchment hydrology: the effect of soil spatial variability in simulated states and fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baroni, Gabriele; Zink, Matthias; Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis; Attinger, Sabine

2017-04-01

The advances in computer science and the availability of new detailed data-sets have led to a growing number of distributed hydrological models applied to finer and finer grid resolutions for larger and larger catchment areas. It was argued, however, that this trend does not necessarily guarantee better understanding of the hydrological processes or it is even not necessary for specific modelling applications. In the present study, this topic is further discussed in relation to the soil spatial heterogeneity and its effect on simulated hydrological state and fluxes. To this end, three methods are developed and used for the characterization of the soil heterogeneity at different spatial scales. The methods are applied at the soil map of the upper Neckar catchment (Germany), as example. The different soil realizations are assessed regarding their impact on simulated state and fluxes using the distributed hydrological model mHM. The results are analysed by aggregating the model outputs at different spatial scales based on the Representative Elementary Scale concept (RES) proposed by Refsgaard et al. (2016). The analysis is further extended in the present study by aggregating the model output also at different temporal scales. The results show that small scale soil variabilities are not relevant when the integrated hydrological responses are considered e.g., simulated streamflow or average soil moisture over sub-catchments. On the contrary, these small scale soil variabilities strongly affect locally simulated states and fluxes i.e., soil moisture and evapotranspiration simulated at the grid resolution. A clear trade-off is also detected by aggregating the model output by spatial and temporal scales. Despite the scale at which the soil variabilities are (or are not) relevant is not universal, the RES concept provides a simple and effective framework to quantify the predictive capability of distributed models and to identify the need for further model improvements e.g., finer resolution input. For this reason, the integration in this analysis of all the relevant input factors (e.g., precipitation, vegetation, geology) could provide a strong support for the definition of the right scale for each specific model application. In this context, however, the main challenge for a proper model assessment will be the correct characterization of the spatio- temporal variability of each input factor. Refsgaard, J.C., Højberg, A.L., He, X., Hansen, A.L., Rasmussen, S.H., Stisen, S., 2016. Where are the limits of model predictive capabilities?: Representative Elementary Scale - RES. Hydrol. Process. doi:10.1002/hyp.11029

A High-Dimensional, Multivariate Copula Approach to Modeling Multivariate Agricultural Price Relationships and Tail Dependencies

Treesearch

Xuan Chi; Barry Goodwin

2012-01-01

Spatial and temporal relationships among agricultural prices have been an important topic of applied research for many years. Such research is used to investigate the performance of markets and to examine linkages up and down the marketing chain. This research has empirically evaluated price linkages by using correlation and regression models and, later, linear and...

Optimizing spatial and temporal treatments to maintain effective fire and non-fire fuels treatments at landscape scales

Treesearch

J. Greg Jones; Woodam Chung; Carl Seielstad; Janet Sullivan; Kurt Krueger

2010-01-01

There is a recognized need to apply and maintain fuel treatments to reduce catastrophic wildland fires. A number of models and decision support systems have been developed for addressing different aspects of fuel treatments while considering other important resource management issues and constraints. Although these models address diverse aspects of the fuel treatment-...

How noise and coupling influence leading indicators of population extinction in a spatially extended ecological system.

PubMed

O'Regan, Suzanne M

2018-12-01

Anticipating critical transitions in spatially extended systems is a key topic of interest to ecologists. Gradually declining metapopulations are an important example of a spatially extended biological system that may exhibit a critical transition. Theory for spatially extended systems approaching extinction that accounts for environmental stochasticity and coupling is currently lacking. Here, we develop spatially implicit two-patch models with additive and multiplicative forms of environmental stochasticity that are slowly forced through population collapse, through changing environmental conditions. We derive patch-specific expressions for candidate indicators of extinction and test their performance via a simulation study. Coupling and spatial heterogeneities decrease the magnitude of the proposed indicators in coupled populations relative to isolated populations, and the noise regime and the degree of coupling together determine trends in summary statistics. This theory may be readily applied to other spatially extended ecological systems, such as coupled infectious disease systems on the verge of elimination.

Spatial variation in nutrient and water color effects on lake chlorophyll at macroscales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fergus, C. Emi; Finley, Andrew O.; Soranno, Patricia A.; Wagner, Tyler

2016-01-01

The nutrient-water color paradigm is a framework to characterize lake trophic status by relating lake primary productivity to both nutrients and water color, the colored component of dissolved organic carbon. Total phosphorus (TP), a limiting nutrient, and water color, a strong light attenuator, influence lake chlorophyll a concentrations (CHL). But, these relationships have been shown in previous studies to be highly variable, which may be related to differences in lake and catchment geomorphology, the forms of nutrients and carbon entering the system, and lake community composition. Because many of these factors vary across space it is likely that lake nutrient and water color relationships with CHL exhibit spatial autocorrelation, such that lakes near one another have similar relationships compared to lakes further away. Including this spatial dependency in models may improve CHL predictions and clarify how well the nutrient-water color paradigm applies to lakes distributed across diverse landscape settings. However, few studies have explicitly examined spatial heterogeneity in the effects of TP and water color together on lake CHL. In this study, we examined spatial variation in TP and water color relationships with CHL in over 800 north temperate lakes using spatially-varying coefficient models (SVC), a robust statistical method that applies a Bayesian framework to explore space-varying and scale-dependent relationships. We found that TP and water color relationships were spatially autocorrelated and that allowing for these relationships to vary by individual lakes over space improved the model fit and predictive performance as compared to models that did not vary over space. The magnitudes of TP effects on CHL differed across lakes such that a 1 μg/L increase in TP resulted in increased CHL ranging from 2–24 μg/L across lake locations. Water color was not related to CHL for the majority of lakes, but there were some locations where water color had a positive effect such that a unit increase in water color resulted in a 2 μg/L increase in CHL and other locations where it had a negative effect such that a unit increase in water color resulted in a 2 μg/L decrease in CHL. In addition, the spatial scales that captured variation in TP and water color effects were different for our study lakes. Variation in TP–CHL relationships was observed at intermediate distances (~20 km) compared to variation in water color–CHL relationships that was observed at regional distances (~200 km). These results demonstrate that there are lake-to-lake differences in the effects of TP and water color on lake CHL and that this variation is spatially structured. Quantifying spatial structure in these relationships furthers our understanding of the variability in these relationships at macroscales and would improve model prediction of chlorophyll a to better meet lake management goals.

Spatial Variation in Nutrient and Water Color Effects on Lake Chlorophyll at Macroscales

PubMed Central

Finley, Andrew O.; Soranno, Patricia A.; Wagner, Tyler

2016-01-01

The nutrient-water color paradigm is a framework to characterize lake trophic status by relating lake primary productivity to both nutrients and water color, the colored component of dissolved organic carbon. Total phosphorus (TP), a limiting nutrient, and water color, a strong light attenuator, influence lake chlorophyll a concentrations (CHL). But, these relationships have been shown in previous studies to be highly variable, which may be related to differences in lake and catchment geomorphology, the forms of nutrients and carbon entering the system, and lake community composition. Because many of these factors vary across space it is likely that lake nutrient and water color relationships with CHL exhibit spatial autocorrelation, such that lakes near one another have similar relationships compared to lakes further away. Including this spatial dependency in models may improve CHL predictions and clarify how well the nutrient-water color paradigm applies to lakes distributed across diverse landscape settings. However, few studies have explicitly examined spatial heterogeneity in the effects of TP and water color together on lake CHL. In this study, we examined spatial variation in TP and water color relationships with CHL in over 800 north temperate lakes using spatially-varying coefficient models (SVC), a robust statistical method that applies a Bayesian framework to explore space-varying and scale-dependent relationships. We found that TP and water color relationships were spatially autocorrelated and that allowing for these relationships to vary by individual lakes over space improved the model fit and predictive performance as compared to models that did not vary over space. The magnitudes of TP effects on CHL differed across lakes such that a 1 μg/L increase in TP resulted in increased CHL ranging from 2–24 μg/L across lake locations. Water color was not related to CHL for the majority of lakes, but there were some locations where water color had a positive effect such that a unit increase in water color resulted in a 2 μg/L increase in CHL and other locations where it had a negative effect such that a unit increase in water color resulted in a 2 μg/L decrease in CHL. In addition, the spatial scales that captured variation in TP and water color effects were different for our study lakes. Variation in TP–CHL relationships was observed at intermediate distances (~20 km) compared to variation in water color–CHL relationships that was observed at regional distances (~200 km). These results demonstrate that there are lake-to-lake differences in the effects of TP and water color on lake CHL and that this variation is spatially structured. Quantifying spatial structure in these relationships furthers our understanding of the variability in these relationships at macroscales and would improve model prediction of chlorophyll a to better meet lake management goals. PMID:27736962

A New Integrated Threshold Selection Methodology for Spatial Forecast Verification of Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kholodovsky, V.

2017-12-01

Extreme weather and climate events such as heavy precipitation, heat waves and strong winds can cause extensive damage to the society in terms of human lives and financial losses. As climate changes, it is important to understand how extreme weather events may change as a result. Climate and statistical models are often independently used to model those phenomena. To better assess performance of the climate models, a variety of spatial forecast verification methods have been developed. However, spatial verification metrics that are widely used in comparing mean states, in most cases, do not have an adequate theoretical justification to benchmark extreme weather events. We proposed a new integrated threshold selection methodology for spatial forecast verification of extreme events that couples existing pattern recognition indices with high threshold choices. This integrated approach has three main steps: 1) dimension reduction; 2) geometric domain mapping; and 3) thresholds clustering. We apply this approach to an observed precipitation dataset over CONUS. The results are evaluated by displaying threshold distribution seasonally, monthly and annually. The method offers user the flexibility of selecting a high threshold that is linked to desired geometrical properties. The proposed high threshold methodology could either complement existing spatial verification methods, where threshold selection is arbitrary, or be directly applicable in extreme value theory.

Assessment of flood susceptible areas using spatially explicit, probabilistic multi-criteria decision analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Zhongqian; Zhang, Hua; Yi, Shanzhen; Xiao, Yangfan

2018-03-01

GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used to support flood risk assessment. However, conventional GIS-MCDA methods fail to adequately represent spatial variability and are accompanied with considerable uncertainty. It is, thus, important to incorporate spatial variability and uncertainty into GIS-based decision analysis procedures. This research develops a spatially explicit, probabilistic GIS-MCDA approach for the delineation of potentially flood susceptible areas. The approach integrates the probabilistic and the local ordered weighted averaging (OWA) methods via Monte Carlo simulation, to take into account the uncertainty related to criteria weights, spatial heterogeneity of preferences and the risk attitude of the analyst. The approach is applied to a pilot study for the Gucheng County, central China, heavily affected by the hazardous 2012 flood. A GIS database of six geomorphological and hydrometeorological factors for the evaluation of susceptibility was created. Moreover, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were performed to investigate the robustness of the model. The results indicate that the ensemble method improves the robustness of the model outcomes with respect to variation in criteria weights and identifies which criteria weights are most responsible for the variability of model outcomes. Therefore, the proposed approach is an improvement over the conventional deterministic method and can provides a more rational, objective and unbiased tool for flood susceptibility evaluation.

Improving a spatial rainfall product using multiple-point geostatistical simulations and its effect on a national hydrological model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oriani, F.; Stisen, S.

2016-12-01

Rainfall amount is one of the most sensitive inputs to distributed hydrological models. Its spatial representation is of primary importance to correctly study the uncertainty of basin recharge and its propagation to the surface and underground circulation. We consider here the 10-km-grid rainfall product provided by the Danish Meteorological Institute as input to the National Water Resources Model of Denmark. Due to a drastic reduction in the rain gauge network in recent years (from approximately 500 stations in the period 1996-2006, to 250 in the period 2007-2014), the grid rainfall product, based on the interpolation of these data, is much less reliable. Consequently, the related hydrological model shows a significantly lower prediction power. To give a better estimation of spatial rainfall at the grid points far from ground measurements, we use the direct sampling technique (DS) [1], belonging to the family of multiple-point geostatistics. DS, already applied to rainfall and spatial variable estimation [2, 3], simulates a grid value by sampling a training data set where a similar data neighborhood occurs. In this way, complex statistical relations are preserved by generating similar spatial patterns to the ones found in the training data set. Using the reliable grid product from the period 1996-2006 as training data set, we first test the technique by simulating part of this data set, then we apply the technique to the grid product of the period 2007-2014, and subsequently analyzing the uncertainty propagation to the hydrological model. We show that DS can improve the reliability of the rainfall product by generating more realistic rainfall patterns, with a significant repercussion on the hydrological model. The reduction of rain gauge networks is a global phenomenon which has huge implications for hydrological model performance and the uncertainty assessment of water resources. Therefore, the presented methodology can potentially be used in many regions where historical records can act as training data. [1] G.Mariethoz et al. (2010), Water Resour. Res., 10.1029/2008WR007621.[2] F. Oriani et al. (2014), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sc., 10.5194/hessd-11-3213-2014. [3] G. Mariethoz et al. (2012), Water Resour. Res., 10.1029/2012WR012115.

A power comparison of generalized additive models and the spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting.

PubMed

Young, Robin L; Weinberg, Janice; Vieira, Verónica; Ozonoff, Al; Webster, Thomas F

2010-07-19

A common, important problem in spatial epidemiology is measuring and identifying variation in disease risk across a study region. In application of statistical methods, the problem has two parts. First, spatial variation in risk must be detected across the study region and, second, areas of increased or decreased risk must be correctly identified. The location of such areas may give clues to environmental sources of exposure and disease etiology. One statistical method applicable in spatial epidemiologic settings is a generalized additive model (GAM) which can be applied with a bivariate LOESS smoother to account for geographic location as a possible predictor of disease status. A natural hypothesis when applying this method is whether residential location of subjects is associated with the outcome, i.e. is the smoothing term necessary? Permutation tests are a reasonable hypothesis testing method and provide adequate power under a simple alternative hypothesis. These tests have yet to be compared to other spatial statistics. This research uses simulated point data generated under three alternative hypotheses to evaluate the properties of the permutation methods and compare them to the popular spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting. Case 1 was a single circular cluster centered in a circular study region. The spatial scan statistic had the highest power though the GAM method estimates did not fall far behind. Case 2 was a single point source located at the center of a circular cluster and Case 3 was a line source at the center of the horizontal axis of a square study region. Each had linearly decreasing logodds with distance from the point. The GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in Cases 2 and 3. Comparing sensitivity, measured as the proportion of the exposure source correctly identified as high or low risk, the GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in all three Cases. The GAM permutation testing methods provide a regression-based alternative to the spatial scan statistic. Across all hypotheses examined in this research, the GAM methods had competing or greater power estimates and sensitivities exceeding that of the spatial scan statistic.

A power comparison of generalized additive models and the spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background A common, important problem in spatial epidemiology is measuring and identifying variation in disease risk across a study region. In application of statistical methods, the problem has two parts. First, spatial variation in risk must be detected across the study region and, second, areas of increased or decreased risk must be correctly identified. The location of such areas may give clues to environmental sources of exposure and disease etiology. One statistical method applicable in spatial epidemiologic settings is a generalized additive model (GAM) which can be applied with a bivariate LOESS smoother to account for geographic location as a possible predictor of disease status. A natural hypothesis when applying this method is whether residential location of subjects is associated with the outcome, i.e. is the smoothing term necessary? Permutation tests are a reasonable hypothesis testing method and provide adequate power under a simple alternative hypothesis. These tests have yet to be compared to other spatial statistics. Results This research uses simulated point data generated under three alternative hypotheses to evaluate the properties of the permutation methods and compare them to the popular spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting. Case 1 was a single circular cluster centered in a circular study region. The spatial scan statistic had the highest power though the GAM method estimates did not fall far behind. Case 2 was a single point source located at the center of a circular cluster and Case 3 was a line source at the center of the horizontal axis of a square study region. Each had linearly decreasing logodds with distance from the point. The GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in Cases 2 and 3. Comparing sensitivity, measured as the proportion of the exposure source correctly identified as high or low risk, the GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in all three Cases. Conclusions The GAM permutation testing methods provide a regression-based alternative to the spatial scan statistic. Across all hypotheses examined in this research, the GAM methods had competing or greater power estimates and sensitivities exceeding that of the spatial scan statistic. PMID:20642827

Area-based tests for association between spatial patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maruca, Susan L.; Jacquez, Geoffrey M.

Edge effects pervade natural systems, and the processes that determine spatial heterogeneity (e.g. physical, geochemical, biological, ecological factors) occur on diverse spatial scales. Hence, tests for association between spatial patterns should be unbiased by edge effects and be based on null spatial models that incorporate the spatial heterogeneity characteristic of real-world systems. This paper develops probabilistic pattern association tests that are appropriate when edge effects are present, polygon size is heterogeneous, and the number of polygons varies from one classification to another. The tests are based on the amount of overlap between polygons in each of two partitions. Unweighted and area-weighted versions of the statistics are developed and verified using scenarios representing both polygon overlap and avoidance at different spatial scales and for different distributions of polygon sizes. These statistics were applied to Soda Butte Creek, Wyoming, to determine whether stream microhabitats, such as riffles, pools and glides, can be identified remotely using high spatial resolution hyperspectral imagery. These new ``spatially explicit'' techniques provide information and insights that cannot be obtained from the spectral information alone.

Hybrid Modeling Approach to Estimate Exposures of Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) for the National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA).

PubMed

Scheffe, Richard D; Strum, Madeleine; Phillips, Sharon B; Thurman, James; Eyth, Alison; Fudge, Steve; Morris, Mark; Palma, Ted; Cook, Richard

2016-11-15

A hybrid air quality model has been developed and applied to estimate annual concentrations of 40 hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) across the continental United States (CONUS) to support the 2011 calendar year National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA). By combining a chemical transport model (CTM) with a Gaussian dispersion model, both reactive and nonreactive HAPs are accommodated across local to regional spatial scales, through a multiplicative technique designed to improve mass conservation relative to previous additive methods. The broad scope of multiple pollutants capturing regional to local spatial scale patterns across a vast spatial domain is precedent setting within the air toxics community. The hybrid design exhibits improved performance relative to the stand alone CTM and dispersion model. However, model performance varies widely across pollutant categories and quantifiably definitive performance assessments are hampered by a limited observation base and challenged by the multiple physical and chemical attributes of HAPs. Formaldehyde and acetaldehyde are the dominant HAP concentration and cancer risk drivers, characterized by strong regional signals associated with naturally emitted carbonyl precursors enhanced in urban transport corridors with strong mobile source sector emissions. The multiple pollutant emission characteristics of combustion dominated source sectors creates largely similar concentration patterns across the majority of HAPs. However, reactive carbonyls exhibit significantly less spatial variability relative to nonreactive HAPs across the CONUS.

A statistical model for monitoring shell disease in inshore lobster fisheries: A case study in Long Island Sound

PubMed Central

Chen, Yong

2017-01-01

The expansion of shell disease is an emerging threat to the inshore lobster fisheries in the northeastern United States. The development of models to improve the efficiency and precision of existing monitoring programs is advocated as an important step in mitigating its harmful effects. The objective of this study is to construct a statistical model that could enhance the existing monitoring effort through (1) identification of potential disease-associated abiotic and biotic factors, and (2) estimation of spatial variation in disease prevalence in the lobster fishery. A delta-generalized additive modeling (GAM) approach was applied using bottom trawl survey data collected from 2001–2013 in Long Island Sound, a tidal estuary between New York and Connecticut states. Spatial distribution of shell disease prevalence was found to be strongly influenced by the interactive effects of latitude and longitude, possibly indicative of a geographic origin of shell disease. Bottom temperature, bottom salinity, and depth were also important factors affecting the spatial variability in shell disease prevalence. The delta-GAM projected high disease prevalence in non-surveyed locations. Additionally, a potential spatial discrepancy was found between modeled disease hotspots and survey-based gravity centers of disease prevalence. This study provides a modeling framework to enhance research, monitoring and management of emerging and continuing marine disease threats. PMID:28196150

Physics-based distributed snow models in the operational arena: Current and future challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winstral, A. H.; Jonas, T.; Schirmer, M.; Helbig, N.

2017-12-01

The demand for modeling tools robust to climate change and weather extremes along with coincident increases in computational capabilities have led to an increase in the use of physics-based snow models in operational applications. Current operational applications include the WSL-SLF's across Switzerland, ASO's in California, and USDA-ARS's in Idaho. While the physics-based approaches offer many advantages there remain limitations and modeling challenges. The most evident limitation remains computation times that often limit forecasters to a single, deterministic model run. Other limitations however remain less conspicuous amidst the assumptions that these models require little to no calibration based on their foundation on physical principles. Yet all energy balance snow models seemingly contain parameterizations or simplifications of processes where validation data are scarce or present understanding is limited. At the research-basin scale where many of these models were developed these modeling elements may prove adequate. However when applied over large areas, spatially invariable parameterizations of snow albedo, roughness lengths and atmospheric exchange coefficients - all vital to determining the snowcover energy balance - become problematic. Moreover as we apply models over larger grid cells, the representation of sub-grid variability such as the snow-covered fraction adds to the challenges. Here, we will demonstrate some of the major sensitivities of distributed energy balance snow models to particular model constructs, the need for advanced and spatially flexible methods and parameterizations, and prompt the community for open dialogue and future collaborations to further modeling capabilities.

Organic carbon stock modelling for the quantification of the carbon sinks in terrestrial ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durante, Pilar; Algeet, Nur; Oyonarte, Cecilio

2017-04-01

Given the recent environmental policies derived from the serious threats caused by global change, practical measures to decrease net CO2 emissions have to be put in place. Regarding this, carbon sequestration is a major measure to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations within a short and medium term, where terrestrial ecosystems play a basic role as carbon sinks. Development of tools for quantification, assessment and management of organic carbon in ecosystems at different scales and management scenarios, it is essential to achieve these commitments. The aim of this study is to establish a methodological framework for the modeling of this tool, applied to a sustainable land use planning and management at spatial and temporal scale. The methodology for carbon stock estimation in ecosystems is based on merger techniques between carbon stored in soils and aerial biomass. For this purpose, both spatial variability map of soil organic carbon (SOC) and algorithms for calculation of forest species biomass will be created. For the modelling of the SOC spatial distribution at different map scales, it is necessary to fit in and screen the available information of soil database legacy. Subsequently, SOC modelling will be based on the SCORPAN model, a quantitative model use to assess the correlation among soil-forming factors measured at the same site location. These factors will be selected from both static (terrain morphometric variables) and dynamic variables (climatic variables and vegetation indexes -NDVI-), providing to the model the spatio-temporal characteristic. After the predictive model, spatial inference techniques will be used to achieve the final map and to extrapolate the data to unavailable information areas (automated random forest regression kriging). The estimated uncertainty will be calculated to assess the model performance at different scale approaches. Organic carbon modelling of aerial biomass will be estimate using LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) algorithms. The available LiDAR databases will be used. LiDAR statistics (which describe the LiDAR cloud point data to calculate forest stand parameters) will be correlated with different canopy cover variables. The regression models applied to the total area will produce a continuous geo-information map to each canopy variable. The CO2 estimation will be calculated by dry-mass conversion factors for each forest species (C kg-CO2 kg equivalent). The result is the organic carbon modelling at spatio-temporal scale with different levels of uncertainty associated to the predictive models and diverse detailed scales. However, one of the main expected problems is due to the heterogeneous spatial distribution of the soil information, which influences on the prediction of the models at different spatial scales and, consequently, at SOC map scale. Besides this, the variability and mixture of the forest species of the aerial biomass decrease the accuracy assessment of the organic carbon.

Alternative projections of the impacts of private investment on southern forests: a comparison of two large-scale forest sector models of the United States.

Treesearch

Ralph Alig; Darius Adams; John Mills; Richard Haynes; Peter Ince; Robert Moulton

2001-01-01

The TAMM/NAPAP/ATLAS/AREACHANGE(TNAA) system and the Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model (FASOM) are two large-scale forestry sector modeling systems that have been employed to analyze the U.S. forest resource situation. The TNAA system of static, spatial equilibrium models has been applied to make SO-year projections of the U.S. forest sector for more...

Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate-mediated range shifts.

PubMed

Crase, Beth; Liedloff, Adam; Vesk, Peter A; Fukuda, Yusuke; Wintle, Brendan A

2014-08-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast changes in the spatial distributions of species and communities in response to climate change. However, spatial autocorrelation (SA) is rarely accounted for in these models, despite its ubiquity in broad-scale ecological data. While spatial autocorrelation in model residuals is known to result in biased parameter estimates and the inflation of type I errors, the influence of unmodeled SA on species' range forecasts is poorly understood. Here we quantify how accounting for SA in SDMs influences the magnitude of range shift forecasts produced by SDMs for multiple climate change scenarios. SDMs were fitted to simulated data with a known autocorrelation structure, and to field observations of three mangrove communities from northern Australia displaying strong spatial autocorrelation. Three modeling approaches were implemented: environment-only models (most frequently applied in species' range forecasts), and two approaches that incorporate SA; autologistic models and residuals autocovariate (RAC) models. Differences in forecasts among modeling approaches and climate scenarios were quantified. While all model predictions at the current time closely matched that of the actual current distribution of the mangrove communities, under the climate change scenarios environment-only models forecast substantially greater range shifts than models incorporating SA. Furthermore, the magnitude of these differences intensified with increasing increments of climate change across the scenarios. When models do not account for SA, forecasts of species' range shifts indicate more extreme impacts of climate change, compared to models that explicitly account for SA. Therefore, where biological or population processes induce substantial autocorrelation in the distribution of organisms, and this is not modeled, model predictions will be inaccurate. These results have global importance for conservation efforts as inaccurate forecasts lead to ineffective prioritization of conservation activities and potentially to avoidable species extinctions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Historical Maps from Modern Images: Using Remote Sensing to Model and Map Century-Long Vegetation Change in a Fire-Prone Region

PubMed Central

Callister, Kate E.; Griffioen, Peter A.; Avitabile, Sarah C.; Haslem, Angie; Kelly, Luke T.; Kenny, Sally A.; Nimmo, Dale G.; Farnsworth, Lisa M.; Taylor, Rick S.; Watson, Simon J.; Bennett, Andrew F.; Clarke, Michael F.

2016-01-01

Understanding the age structure of vegetation is important for effective land management, especially in fire-prone landscapes where the effects of fire can persist for decades and centuries. In many parts of the world, such information is limited due to an inability to map disturbance histories before the availability of satellite images (~1972). Here, we describe a method for creating a spatial model of the age structure of canopy species that established pre-1972. We built predictive neural network models based on remotely sensed data and ecological field survey data. These models determined the relationship between sites of known fire age and remotely sensed data. The predictive model was applied across a 104,000 km2 study region in semi-arid Australia to create a spatial model of vegetation age structure, which is primarily the result of stand-replacing fires which occurred before 1972. An assessment of the predictive capacity of the model using independent validation data showed a significant correlation (rs = 0.64) between predicted and known age at test sites. Application of the model provides valuable insights into the distribution of vegetation age-classes and fire history in the study region. This is a relatively straightforward method which uses widely available data sources that can be applied in other regions to predict age-class distribution beyond the limits imposed by satellite imagery. PMID:27029046

From Dynamic Global Vegetation Modelling to Real-World regional and local Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinkamp, J.; Forrest, M.; Kamm, K.; Leiblein-Wild, M.; Pachzelt, A.; Werner, C.; Hickler, T.

2015-12-01

Dynamic (global) vegetation models (DGVM) can be applied to any spatial resolution on the local, national, continental and global scale given suitable climatic and geographic input forcing data. LPJ-GUESS, the main DGVM applied in our research group, uses the plant functional type (PFT) concept in the global setup with typically about 10-20 tree PFTs (subdivided into tropical, temperate and boreal) and two herbaceous PFTs by default. When modelling smaller spatial extents, such as continental (e.g. Europe/North America) national domains, or individual sites (e.g. Frankfurt, Germany), i.e. the scale of decision making, it becomes necessary to refine the PFT representation, the model initialization and validation and, in some case, to include additional processes. I will present examples of LPJ-GUESS applications at the continental to local scale performed by our working group including i.) a European simulation representing the main tree species and Mediterranean shrubs, ii.) a climate impact study for Turkey, iii.) coupled dynamic large grazer-vegetation modelling across Africa and, iv.) modelling an allergenic and in Europe invasive shrub (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), iv.) simulating water usage by an oak-pine forest stand near Frankfurt, and v.) stand specific differences in modelling at the FACE sites. Finally, I will present some thoughts on how to advance the models in terms of more detailed and realistic PFT or species parameterizations accounting for adaptive functional trait responses also within species.

Spatial averaging of a dissipative particle dynamics model for active suspensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panchenko, Alexander; Hinz, Denis F.; Fried, Eliot

2018-03-01

Starting from a fine-scale dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) model of self-motile point particles, we derive meso-scale continuum equations by applying a spatial averaging version of the Irving-Kirkwood-Noll procedure. Since the method does not rely on kinetic theory, the derivation is valid for highly concentrated particle systems. Spatial averaging yields stochastic continuum equations similar to those of Toner and Tu. However, our theory also involves a constitutive equation for the average fluctuation force. According to this equation, both the strength and the probability distribution vary with time and position through the effective mass density. The statistics of the fluctuation force also depend on the fine scale dissipative force equation, the physical temperature, and two additional parameters which characterize fluctuation strengths. Although the self-propulsion force entering our DPD model contains no explicit mechanism for aligning the velocities of neighboring particles, our averaged coarse-scale equations include the commonly encountered cubically nonlinear (internal) body force density.

Spatial path models with multiple indicators and multiple causes: mental health in US counties.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2011-06-01

This paper considers a structural model for the impact on area mental health outcomes (poor mental health, suicide) of spatially structured latent constructs: deprivation, social capital, social fragmentation and rurality. These constructs are measured by multiple observed effect indicators, with the constructs allowed to be correlated both between and within areas. However, in the scheme developed here, particular latent constructs may also be influenced by known variables, or, via path sequences, by other constructs, possibly nonlinearly. For example, area social capital may be measured by effect indicators (e.g. associational density, charitable activity), but influenced as causes by other constructs (e.g. area deprivation), and by observed features of the socio-ethnic structure of areas. A model incorporating these features is applied to suicide mortality and the prevalence of poor mental health in 3141 US counties, which are related to the latent spatial constructs and to observed variables (e.g. county ethnic mix). Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Upscaling of dilution and mixing using a trajectory based Spatial Markov random walk model in a periodic flow domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sund, Nicole L.; Porta, Giovanni M.; Bolster, Diogo

2017-05-01

The Spatial Markov Model (SMM) is an upscaled model that has been used successfully to predict effective mean transport across a broad range of hydrologic settings. Here we propose a novel variant of the SMM, applicable to spatially periodic systems. This SMM is built using particle trajectories, rather than travel times. By applying the proposed SMM to a simple benchmark problem we demonstrate that it can predict mean effective transport, when compared to data from fully resolved direct numerical simulations. Next we propose a methodology for using this SMM framework to predict measures of mixing and dilution, that do not just depend on mean concentrations, but are strongly impacted by pore-scale concentration fluctuations. We use information from trajectories of particles to downscale and reconstruct pore-scale approximate concentration fields from which mixing and dilution measures are then calculated. The comparison between measurements from fully resolved simulations and predictions with the SMM agree very favorably.

Mapping the spatial distribution and time evolution of snow water equivalent with passive microwave measurements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guo, J.; Tsang, L.; Josberger, E.G.; Wood, A.W.; Hwang, J.-N.; Lettenmaier, D.P.

2003-01-01

This paper presents an algorithm that estimates the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of snow water equivalent and snow depth based on passive remote sensing measurements. It combines the inversion of passive microwave remote sensing measurements via dense media radiative transfer modeling results with snow accumulation and melt model predictions to yield improved estimates of snow depth and snow water equivalent, at a pixel resolution of 5 arc-min. In the inversion, snow grain size evolution is constrained based on pattern matching by using the local snow temperature history. This algorithm is applied to produce spatial snow maps of Upper Rio Grande River basin in Colorado. The simulation results are compared with that of the snow accumulation and melt model and a linear regression method. The quantitative comparison with the ground truth measurements from four Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites in the basin shows that this algorithm is able to improve the estimation of snow parameters.

Multi-Timescale Analysis of the Spatial Representativeness of In Situ Soil Moisture Data within Satellite Footprints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molero, B.; Leroux, D. J.; Richaume, P.; Kerr, Y. H.; Merlin, O.; Cosh, M. H.; Bindlish, R.

2018-01-01

We conduct a novel comprehensive investigation that seeks to prove the connection between spatial scales and timescales in surface soil moisture (SM) within the satellite footprint ( 50 km). Modeled and measured point series at Yanco and Little Washita in situ networks are first decomposed into anomalies at timescales ranging from 0.5 to 128 days, using wavelet transforms. Then, their degree of spatial representativeness is evaluated on a per-timescale basis by comparison to large spatial scale data sets (the in situ spatial average, SMOS, AMSR2, and ECMWF). Four methods are used for this: temporal stability analysis (TStab), triple collocation (TC), percentage of correlated areas (CArea), and a new proposed approach that uses wavelet-based correlations (WCor). We found that the mean of the spatial representativeness values tends to increase with the timescale but so does their dispersion. Locations exhibit poor spatial representativeness at scales below 4 days, while either very good or poor representativeness at seasonal scales. Regarding the methods, TStab cannot be applied to the anomaly series due to their multiple zero-crossings, and TC is suitable for week and month scales but not for other scales where data set cross-correlations are found low. In contrast, WCor and CArea give consistent results at all timescales. WCor is less sensitive to the spatial sampling density, so it is a robust method that can be applied to sparse networks (one station per footprint). These results are promising to improve the validation and downscaling of satellite SM series and the optimization of SM networks.

Modelling the impact of the light regime on single tree transpiration based on 3D representations of plant architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bittner, S.; Priesack, E.

2012-04-01

We apply a functional-structural model of tree water flow to single old-growth trees in a temperate broad-leaved forest stand. Roots, stems and branches are represented by connected porous cylinder elements further divided into the inner heartwood cylinders surrounded by xylem and phloem. Xylem water flow is simulated by applying a non-linear Darcy flow in porous media driven by the water potential gradient according to the cohesion-tension theory. The flow model is based on physiological input parameters such as the hydraulic conductivity, stomatal response to leaf water potential and root water uptake capability and, thus, can reflect the different properties of tree species. The actual root water uptake is calculated using also a non-linear Darcy law based on the gradient between root xylem water potential and rhizosphere soil water potential and by the simulation of soil water flow applying Richards equation. A leaf stomatal conductance model is combined with the hydrological tree and soil water flow model and a spatially explicit three-dimensional canopy light model. The structure of the canopy and the tree architectures are derived by applying an automatic tree skeleton extraction algorithm from point clouds obtained by use of a terrestrial laser scanner allowing an explicit representation of the water flow path in the stem and branches. The high spatial resolution of the root and branch geometry and their connectivity makes the detailed modelling of the water use of single trees possible and allows for the analysis of the interaction between single trees and the influence of the canopy light regime (including different fractions of direct sunlight and diffuse skylight) on the simulated sap flow and transpiration. The model can be applied at various sites and to different tree species, enabling the up-scaling of the water usage of single trees to the total transpiration of mixed stands. Examples are given to reveal differences between diffuse- and ring-porous tree species and to simulate the diurnal dynamics of transpiration, stem sap flux, and root water uptake observed during the vegetation period in the year 2009.

Mercury and methylmercury stream concentrations in a Coastal Plain watershed: A multi-scale simulation analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knightes, Christopher D.; Golden, Heather E.; Journey, Celeste A.; Davis, Gary M.; Conrads, Paul; Marvin-DiPasquale, Mark; Brigham, Mark E.; Bradley, Paul M.

2014-01-01

Mercury is a ubiquitous global environmental toxicant responsible for most US fish advisories. Processes governing mercury concentrations in rivers and streams are not well understood, particularly at multiple spatial scales. We investigate how insights gained from reach-scale mercury data and model simulations can be applied at broader watershed scales using a spatially and temporally explicit watershed hydrology and biogeochemical cycling model, VELMA. We simulate fate and transport using reach-scale (0.1 km2) study data and evaluate applications to multiple watershed scales. Reach-scale VELMA parameterization was applied to two nested sub-watersheds (28 km2 and 25 km2) and the encompassing watershed (79 km2). Results demonstrate that simulated flow and total mercury concentrations compare reasonably to observations at different scales, but simulated methylmercury concentrations are out-of-phase with observations. These findings suggest that intricacies of methylmercury biogeochemical cycling and transport are under-represented in VELMA and underscore the complexity of simulating mercury fate and transport.

Improving the Spatial Prediction of Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in a Complex Tropical Mountain Landscape by Methodological Specifications in Machine Learning Approaches.

PubMed

Ließ, Mareike; Schmidt, Johannes; Glaser, Bruno

2016-01-01

Tropical forests are significant carbon sinks and their soils' carbon storage potential is immense. However, little is known about the soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks of tropical mountain areas whose complex soil-landscape and difficult accessibility pose a challenge to spatial analysis. The choice of methodology for spatial prediction is of high importance to improve the expected poor model results in case of low predictor-response correlations. Four aspects were considered to improve model performance in predicting SOC stocks of the organic layer of a tropical mountain forest landscape: Different spatial predictor settings, predictor selection strategies, various machine learning algorithms and model tuning. Five machine learning algorithms: random forests, artificial neural networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees and support vector machines were trained and tuned to predict SOC stocks from predictors derived from a digital elevation model and satellite image. Topographical predictors were calculated with a GIS search radius of 45 to 615 m. Finally, three predictor selection strategies were applied to the total set of 236 predictors. All machine learning algorithms-including the model tuning and predictor selection-were compared via five repetitions of a tenfold cross-validation. The boosted regression tree algorithm resulted in the overall best model. SOC stocks ranged between 0.2 to 17.7 kg m-2, displaying a huge variability with diffuse insolation and curvatures of different scale guiding the spatial pattern. Predictor selection and model tuning improved the models' predictive performance in all five machine learning algorithms. The rather low number of selected predictors favours forward compared to backward selection procedures. Choosing predictors due to their indiviual performance was vanquished by the two procedures which accounted for predictor interaction.

Quantification of histone modification ChIP-seq enrichment for data mining and machine learning applications

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The advent of ChIP-seq technology has made the investigation of epigenetic regulatory networks a computationally tractable problem. Several groups have applied statistical computing methods to ChIP-seq datasets to gain insight into the epigenetic regulation of transcription. However, methods for estimating enrichment levels in ChIP-seq data for these computational studies are understudied and variable. Since the conclusions drawn from these data mining and machine learning applications strongly depend on the enrichment level inputs, a comparison of estimation methods with respect to the performance of statistical models should be made. Results Various methods were used to estimate the gene-wise ChIP-seq enrichment levels for 20 histone methylations and the histone variant H2A.Z. The Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) algorithm was applied for each estimation method using the estimation of enrichment levels as predictors and gene expression levels as responses. The methods used to estimate enrichment levels included tag counting and model-based methods that were applied to whole genes and specific gene regions. These methods were also applied to various sizes of estimation windows. The MARS model performance was assessed with the Generalized Cross-Validation Score (GCV). We determined that model-based methods of enrichment estimation that spatially weight enrichment based on average patterns provided an improvement over tag counting methods. Also, methods that included information across the entire gene body provided improvement over methods that focus on a specific sub-region of the gene (e.g., the 5' or 3' region). Conclusion The performance of data mining and machine learning methods when applied to histone modification ChIP-seq data can be improved by using data across the entire gene body, and incorporating the spatial distribution of enrichment. Refinement of enrichment estimation ultimately improved accuracy of model predictions. PMID:21834981

Characterising freeze in the UK: applications for the insurance industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raven, E. K.; Keef, C.; Busby, K.

2012-04-01

The UK winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 were characterised by prolonged and widespread low temperatures. This was challenging for the UK insurance industry and organisations such as the emergency services, the Highways Agency and British Gas who had to manage the extra demands that resulted. In the 6-day period running to Christmas Eve 2010, British Gas reported 100,000 boiler repair call-outs, whilst those 190,000 homes and businesses left with frozen and subsequently burst pipes contributed to the ABI's estimated £ 900 million in insured losses for December 2010 alone; the highest payout by the industry for damages associated with cold weather. Unfortunately, the severity of these winters made the difference between profit and loss for some primary UK insurance companies. To enable better pricing of premiums in the future, insurance companies are looking to understand the potential risk from cold waves at a local, postcode-level, whilst reinsurance firms seek to determine the accumulated loss across the UK associated with spatially coherent events. Other industry sectors also strive to improve their understanding of weather extremes for planning and management. Underpinning this is the need to statistically characterise the physical hazard. Aimed primarily at the re/insurance industry, we have applied an established methodology for developing statistical event sets and applied this to generate a UK freeze event set. An event set provides a stochastic set of several thousand events over 10's of 1000's of years and is typically applied within probabilistic catastrophe models. Our method applies extreme value theory and dependence modelling to explain low-temperature relationships across the UK and over time using historical records. The resulting event set represents the spatial and temporal dependence of cold waves in the UK and is modelled against household factors that increase the vulnerability to freezing conditions, such as property type, age and condition. By presenting our methodology, we illustrate some of the complex spatial and temporal relationships in UK freeze events and place the past two winters into a statistical context. Furthermore, we demonstrate the application of event sets within catastrophe modelling and risk mapping services.

Sparse modeling of spatial environmental variables associated with asthma

PubMed Central

Chang, Timothy S.; Gangnon, Ronald E.; Page, C. David; Buckingham, William R.; Tandias, Aman; Cowan, Kelly J.; Tomasallo, Carrie D.; Arndt, Brian G.; Hanrahan, Lawrence P.; Guilbert, Theresa W.

2014-01-01

Geographically distributed environmental factors influence the burden of diseases such as asthma. Our objective was to identify sparse environmental variables associated with asthma diagnosis gathered from a large electronic health record (EHR) dataset while controlling for spatial variation. An EHR dataset from the University of Wisconsin’s Family Medicine, Internal Medicine and Pediatrics Departments was obtained for 199,220 patients aged 5–50 years over a three-year period. Each patient’s home address was geocoded to one of 3,456 geographic census block groups. Over one thousand block group variables were obtained from a commercial database. We developed a Sparse Spatial Environmental Analysis (SASEA). Using this method, the environmental variables were first dimensionally reduced with sparse principal component analysis. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling was then used to identify block group variables associated with asthma from sparse principal components. The addresses of patients from the EHR dataset were distributed throughout the majority of Wisconsin’s geography. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling captured spatial variation of asthma. Four sparse principal components identified via model selection consisted of food at home, dog ownership, household size, and disposable income variables. In rural areas, dog ownership and renter occupied housing units from significant sparse principal components were associated with asthma. Our main contribution is the incorporation of sparsity in spatial modeling. SASEA sequentially added sparse principal components to Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling. This method allowed association of geographically distributed environmental factors with asthma using EHR and environmental datasets. SASEA can be applied to other diseases with environmental risk factors. PMID:25533437

Sparse modeling of spatial environmental variables associated with asthma.

PubMed

Chang, Timothy S; Gangnon, Ronald E; David Page, C; Buckingham, William R; Tandias, Aman; Cowan, Kelly J; Tomasallo, Carrie D; Arndt, Brian G; Hanrahan, Lawrence P; Guilbert, Theresa W

2015-02-01

Geographically distributed environmental factors influence the burden of diseases such as asthma. Our objective was to identify sparse environmental variables associated with asthma diagnosis gathered from a large electronic health record (EHR) dataset while controlling for spatial variation. An EHR dataset from the University of Wisconsin's Family Medicine, Internal Medicine and Pediatrics Departments was obtained for 199,220 patients aged 5-50years over a three-year period. Each patient's home address was geocoded to one of 3456 geographic census block groups. Over one thousand block group variables were obtained from a commercial database. We developed a Sparse Spatial Environmental Analysis (SASEA). Using this method, the environmental variables were first dimensionally reduced with sparse principal component analysis. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling was then used to identify block group variables associated with asthma from sparse principal components. The addresses of patients from the EHR dataset were distributed throughout the majority of Wisconsin's geography. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling captured spatial variation of asthma. Four sparse principal components identified via model selection consisted of food at home, dog ownership, household size, and disposable income variables. In rural areas, dog ownership and renter occupied housing units from significant sparse principal components were associated with asthma. Our main contribution is the incorporation of sparsity in spatial modeling. SASEA sequentially added sparse principal components to Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling. This method allowed association of geographically distributed environmental factors with asthma using EHR and environmental datasets. SASEA can be applied to other diseases with environmental risk factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Selective 4D modelling framework for spatial-temporal land information management system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doulamis, Anastasios; Soile, Sofia; Doulamis, Nikolaos; Chrisouli, Christina; Grammalidis, Nikos; Dimitropoulos, Kosmas; Manesis, Charalambos; Potsiou, Chryssy; Ioannidis, Charalabos

2015-06-01

This paper introduces a predictive (selective) 4D modelling framework where only the spatial 3D differences are modelled at the forthcoming time instances, while regions of no significant spatial-temporal alterations remain intact. To accomplish this, initially spatial-temporal analysis is applied between 3D digital models captured at different time instances. So, the creation of dynamic change history maps is made. Change history maps indicate spatial probabilities of regions needed further 3D modelling at forthcoming instances. Thus, change history maps are good examples for a predictive assessment, that is, to localize surfaces within the objects where a high accuracy reconstruction process needs to be activated at the forthcoming time instances. The proposed 4D Land Information Management System (LIMS) is implemented using open interoperable standards based on the CityGML framework. CityGML allows the description of the semantic metadata information and the rights of the land resources. Visualization aspects are also supported to allow easy manipulation, interaction and representation of the 4D LIMS digital parcels and the respective semantic information. The open source 3DCityDB incorporating a PostgreSQL geo-database is used to manage and manipulate 3D data and their semantics. An application is made to detect the change through time of a 3D block of plots in an urban area of Athens, Greece. Starting with an accurate 3D model of the buildings in 1983, a change history map is created using automated dense image matching on aerial photos of 2010. For both time instances meshes are created and through their comparison the changes are detected.

Nonuniform grid implicit spatial finite difference method for acoustic wave modeling in tilted transversely isotropic media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Chunlei; Stoffa, Paul L.

2012-01-01

Discrete earth models are commonly represented by uniform structured grids. In order to ensure accurate numerical description of all wave components propagating through these uniform grids, the grid size must be determined by the slowest velocity of the entire model. Consequently, high velocity areas are always oversampled, which inevitably increases the computational cost. A practical solution to this problem is to use nonuniform grids. We propose a nonuniform grid implicit spatial finite difference method which utilizes nonuniform grids to obtain high efficiency and relies on implicit operators to achieve high accuracy. We present a simple way of deriving implicit finite difference operators of arbitrary stencil widths on general nonuniform grids for the first and second derivatives and, as a demonstration example, apply these operators to the pseudo-acoustic wave equation in tilted transversely isotropic (TTI) media. We propose an efficient gridding algorithm that can be used to convert uniformly sampled models onto vertically nonuniform grids. We use a 2D TTI salt model to demonstrate its effectiveness and show that the nonuniform grid implicit spatial finite difference method can produce highly accurate seismic modeling results with enhanced efficiency, compared to uniform grid explicit finite difference implementations.

Using Bayesian hierarchical models to better understand nitrate sources and sinks in agricultural watersheds.

PubMed

Xia, Yongqiu; Weller, Donald E; Williams, Meghan N; Jordan, Thomas E; Yan, Xiaoyuan

2016-11-15

Export coefficient models (ECMs) are often used to predict nutrient sources and sinks in watersheds because ECMs can flexibly incorporate processes and have minimal data requirements. However, ECMs do not quantify uncertainties in model structure, parameters, or predictions; nor do they account for spatial and temporal variability in land characteristics, weather, and management practices. We applied Bayesian hierarchical methods to address these problems in ECMs used to predict nitrate concentration in streams. We compared four model formulations, a basic ECM and three models with additional terms to represent competing hypotheses about the sources of error in ECMs and about spatial and temporal variability of coefficients: an ADditive Error Model (ADEM), a SpatioTemporal Parameter Model (STPM), and a Dynamic Parameter Model (DPM). The DPM incorporates a first-order random walk to represent spatial correlation among parameters and a dynamic linear model to accommodate temporal correlation. We tested the modeling approach in a proof of concept using watershed characteristics and nitrate export measurements from watersheds in the Coastal Plain physiographic province of the Chesapeake Bay drainage. Among the four models, the DPM was the best--it had the lowest mean error, explained the most variability (R 2  = 0.99), had the narrowest prediction intervals, and provided the most effective tradeoff between fit complexity (its deviance information criterion, DIC, was 45.6 units lower than any other model, indicating overwhelming support for the DPM). The superiority of the DPM supports its underlying hypothesis that the main source of error in ECMs is their failure to account for parameter variability rather than structural error. Analysis of the fitted DPM coefficients for cropland export and instream retention revealed some of the factors controlling nitrate concentration: cropland nitrate exports were positively related to stream flow and watershed average slope, while instream nitrate retention was positively correlated with nitrate concentration. By quantifying spatial and temporal variability in sources and sinks, the DPM provides new information to better target management actions to the most effective times and places. Given the wide use of ECMs as research and management tools, our approach can be broadly applied in other watersheds and to other materials. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inverse modelling of fluvial sediment connectivity identifies characteristics and spatial distribution of sediment sources in a large river network.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitt, R. J. P.; Bizzi, S.; Kondolf, G. M.; Rubin, Z.; Castelletti, A.

2016-12-01

Field and laboratory evidence indicates that the spatial distribution of transport in both alluvial and bedrock rivers is an adaptation to sediment supply. Sediment supply, in turn, depends on spatial distribution and properties (e.g., grain sizes and supply rates) of individual sediment sources. Analyzing the distribution of transport capacity in a river network could hence clarify the spatial distribution and properties of sediment sources. Yet, challenges include a) identifying magnitude and spatial distribution of transport capacity for each of multiple grain sizes being simultaneously transported, and b) estimating source grain sizes and supply rates, both at network scales. Herein, we approach the problem of identifying the spatial distribution of sediment sources and the resulting network sediment fluxes in a major, poorly monitored tributary (80,000 km2) of the Mekong. Therefore, we apply the CASCADE modeling framework (Schmitt et al. (2016)). CASCADE calculates transport capacities and sediment fluxes for multiple grainsizes on the network scale based on remotely-sensed morphology and modelled hydrology. CASCADE is run in an inverse Monte Carlo approach for 7500 random initializations of source grain sizes. In all runs, supply of each source is inferred from the minimum downstream transport capacity for the source grain size. Results for each realization are compared to sparse available sedimentary records. Only 1 % of initializations reproduced the sedimentary record. Results for these realizations revealed a spatial pattern in source supply rates, grain sizes, and network sediment fluxes that correlated well with map-derived patterns in lithology and river-morphology. Hence, we propose that observable river hydro-morphology contains information on upstream source properties that can be back-calculated using an inverse modeling approach. Such an approach could be coupled to more detailed models of hillslope processes in future to derive integrated models of hillslope production and fluvial transport processes, which is particularly useful to identify sediment provenance in poorly monitored river basins.

A Bayesian method for assessing multiscalespecies-habitat relationships

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuber, Erica F.; Gruber, Lutz F.; Fontaine, Joseph J.

2017-01-01

ContextScientists face several theoretical and methodological challenges in appropriately describing fundamental wildlife-habitat relationships in models. The spatial scales of habitat relationships are often unknown, and are expected to follow a multi-scale hierarchy. Typical frequentist or information theoretic approaches often suffer under collinearity in multi-scale studies, fail to converge when models are complex or represent an intractable computational burden when candidate model sets are large.ObjectivesOur objective was to implement an automated, Bayesian method for inference on the spatial scales of habitat variables that best predict animal abundance.MethodsWe introduce Bayesian latent indicator scale selection (BLISS), a Bayesian method to select spatial scales of predictors using latent scale indicator variables that are estimated with reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. BLISS does not suffer from collinearity, and substantially reduces computation time of studies. We present a simulation study to validate our method and apply our method to a case-study of land cover predictors for ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) abundance in Nebraska, USA.ResultsOur method returns accurate descriptions of the explanatory power of multiple spatial scales, and unbiased and precise parameter estimates under commonly encountered data limitations including spatial scale autocorrelation, effect size, and sample size. BLISS outperforms commonly used model selection methods including stepwise and AIC, and reduces runtime by 90%.ConclusionsGiven the pervasiveness of scale-dependency in ecology, and the implications of mismatches between the scales of analyses and ecological processes, identifying the spatial scales over which species are integrating habitat information is an important step in understanding species-habitat relationships. BLISS is a widely applicable method for identifying important spatial scales, propagating scale uncertainty, and testing hypotheses of scaling relationships.

Optimal HRF and smoothing parameters for fMRI time series within an autoregressive modeling framework.

PubMed

Galka, Andreas; Siniatchkin, Michael; Stephani, Ulrich; Groening, Kristina; Wolff, Stephan; Bosch-Bayard, Jorge; Ozaki, Tohru

2010-12-01

The analysis of time series obtained by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) may be approached by fitting predictive parametric models, such as nearest-neighbor autoregressive models with exogeneous input (NNARX). As a part of the modeling procedure, it is possible to apply instantaneous linear transformations to the data. Spatial smoothing, a common preprocessing step, may be interpreted as such a transformation. The autoregressive parameters may be constrained, such that they provide a response behavior that corresponds to the canonical haemodynamic response function (HRF). We present an algorithm for estimating the parameters of the linear transformations and of the HRF within a rigorous maximum-likelihood framework. Using this approach, an optimal amount of both the spatial smoothing and the HRF can be estimated simultaneously for a given fMRI data set. An example from a motor-task experiment is discussed. It is found that, for this data set, weak, but non-zero, spatial smoothing is optimal. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that activated regions can be estimated within the maximum-likelihood framework.

An Efficient Data Compression Model Based on Spatial Clustering and Principal Component Analysis in Wireless Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Yin, Yihang; Liu, Fengzheng; Zhou, Xiang; Li, Quanzhong

2015-08-07

Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) have been widely used to monitor the environment, and sensors in WSNs are usually power constrained. Because inner-node communication consumes most of the power, efficient data compression schemes are needed to reduce the data transmission to prolong the lifetime of WSNs. In this paper, we propose an efficient data compression model to aggregate data, which is based on spatial clustering and principal component analysis (PCA). First, sensors with a strong temporal-spatial correlation are grouped into one cluster for further processing with a novel similarity measure metric. Next, sensor data in one cluster are aggregated in the cluster head sensor node, and an efficient adaptive strategy is proposed for the selection of the cluster head to conserve energy. Finally, the proposed model applies principal component analysis with an error bound guarantee to compress the data and retain the definite variance at the same time. Computer simulations show that the proposed model can greatly reduce communication and obtain a lower mean square error than other PCA-based algorithms.

Valuing water resources in Switzerland using a hedonic price model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Dijk, Diana; Siber, Rosi; Brouwer, Roy; Logar, Ivana; Sanadgol, Dorsa

2016-05-01

In this paper, linear and spatial hedonic price models are applied to the housing market in Switzerland, covering all 26 cantons in the country over the period 2005-2010. Besides structural house, neighborhood and socioeconomic characteristics, we include a wide variety of new environmental characteristics related to water to examine their role in explaining variation in sales prices. These include water abundance, different types of water bodies, the recreational function of water, and water disamenity. Significant spatial autocorrelation is found in the estimated models, as well as nonlinear effects for distances to the nearest lake and large river. Significant effects are furthermore found for water abundance and the distance to large rivers, but not to small rivers. Although in both linear and spatial models water related variables explain less than 1% of the price variation, the distance to the nearest bathing site has a larger marginal contribution than many neighborhood-related distance variables. The housing market shows to differentiate between different water related resources in terms of relative contribution to house prices, which could help the housing development industry make more geographically targeted planning activities.

Using spatially explicit surveillance models to provide confidence in the eradication of an invasive ant

PubMed Central

Ward, Darren F.; Anderson, Dean P.; Barron, Mandy C.

2016-01-01

Effective detection plays an important role in the surveillance and management of invasive species. Invasive ants are very difficult to eradicate and are prone to imperfect detection because of their small size and cryptic nature. Here we demonstrate the use of spatially explicit surveillance models to estimate the probability that Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) have been eradicated from an offshore island site, given their absence across four surveys and three surveillance methods, conducted since ant control was applied. The probability of eradication increased sharply as each survey was conducted. Using all surveys and surveillance methods combined, the overall median probability of eradication of Argentine ants was 0.96. There was a high level of confidence in this result, with a high Credible Interval Value of 0.87. Our results demonstrate the value of spatially explicit surveillance models for the likelihood of eradication of Argentine ants. We argue that such models are vital to give confidence in eradication programs, especially from highly valued conservation areas such as offshore islands. PMID:27721491

Analysis of Mining Terrain Deformation Characteristics with Deformation Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blachowski, Jan; Milczarek, Wojciech; Grzempowski, Piotr

2014-05-01

Mapping and prediction of mining related deformations of the earth surface is an important measure for minimising threat to surface infrastructure, human population, the environment and safety of the mining operation itself arising from underground extraction of useful minerals. The number of methods and techniques used for monitoring and analysis of mining terrain deformations is wide and increasing with the development of geographical information technologies. These include for example: terrestrial geodetic measurements, global positioning systems, remote sensing, spatial interpolation, finite element method modelling, GIS based modelling, geological modelling, empirical modelling using the Knothe theory, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic calculations and other. The aim of this paper is to introduce the concept of an integrated Deformation Information System (DIS) developed in geographic information systems environment for analysis and modelling of various spatial data related to mining activity and demonstrate its applications for mapping and visualising, as well as identifying possible mining terrain deformation areas with various spatial modelling methods. The DIS concept is based on connected modules that include: the spatial database - the core of the system, the spatial data collection module formed by: terrestrial, satellite and remote sensing measurements of the ground changes, the spatial data mining module for data discovery and extraction, the geological modelling module, the spatial data modeling module with data processing algorithms for spatio-temporal analysis and mapping of mining deformations and their characteristics (e.g. deformation parameters: tilt, curvature and horizontal strain), the multivariate spatial data classification module and the visualization module allowing two-dimensional interactive and static mapping and three-dimensional visualizations of mining ground characteristics. The Systems's functionality has been presented on the case study of a coal mining region in SW Poland where it has been applied to study characteristics and map mining induced ground deformations in a city in the last two decades of underground coal extraction and in the first decade after the end of mining. The mining subsidence area and its deformation parameters (tilt and curvature) have been calculated and the latter classified and mapped according to the Polish regulations. In addition possible areas of ground deformation have been indicated based on multivariate spatial data analysis of geological and mining operation characteristics with the geographically weighted regression method.

The topology of geology 1: Topological analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele, Samuel T.; Jessell, Mark W.; Lindsay, Mark; Ogarko, Vitaliy; Wellmann, J. Florian; Pakyuz-Charrier, Evren

2016-10-01

Topology has been used to characterise and quantify the properties of complex systems in a diverse range of scientific domains. This study explores the concept and applications of topological analysis in geology. We have developed an automatic system for extracting first order 2D topological information from geological maps, and 3D topological information from models built with the Noddy kinematic modelling system, and equivalent analyses should be possible for other implicit modelling systems. A method is presented for describing the spatial and temporal topology of geological models using a set of adjacency relationships that can be expressed as a topology network, thematic adjacency matrix or hive diagram. We define three types of spatial topology (cellular, structural and lithological) that allow us to analyse different aspects of the geology, and then apply them to investigate the geology of the Hamersley Basin, Western Australia.

Spatio-temporal pattern clustering for skill assessment of the Korea Operational Oceanographic System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Park, K.

2016-12-01

In order to evaluate the performance of operational forecast models in the Korea operational oceanographic system (KOOS) which has been developed by Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST), a skill assessment (SA) tool has developed and provided multiple skill metrics including not only correlation and error skills by comparing predictions and observation but also pattern clustering with numerical models, satellite, and observation. The KOOS has produced 72 hours forecast information on atmospheric and hydrodynamic forecast variables of wind, pressure, current, tide, wave, temperature, and salinity at every 12 hours per day produced by operating numerical models such as WRF, ROMS, MOM5, WW-III, and SWAN and the SA has conducted to evaluate the forecasts. We have been operationally operated several kinds of numerical models such as WRF, ROMS, MOM5, MOHID, WW-III. Quantitative assessment of operational ocean forecast model is very important to provide accurate ocean forecast information not only to general public but also to support ocean-related problems. In this work, we propose a method of pattern clustering using machine learning method and GIS-based spatial analytics to evaluate spatial distribution of numerical models and spatial observation data such as satellite and HF radar. For the clustering, we use 10 or 15 years-long reanalysis data which was computed by the KOOS, ECMWF, and HYCOM to make best matching clusters which are classified physical meaning with time variation and then we compare it with forecast data. Moreover, for evaluating current, we develop extraction method of dominant flow and apply it to hydrodynamic models and HF radar's sea surface current data. By applying pattern clustering method, it allows more accurate and effective assessment of ocean forecast models' performance by comparing not only specific observation positions which are determined by observation stations but also spatio-temporal distribution of whole model areas. We believe that our proposed method will be very useful to examine and evaluate large amount of numerical modeling data as well as satellite data.

Bottom-up modeling approach for the quantitative estimation of parameters in pathogen-host interactions

PubMed Central

Lehnert, Teresa; Timme, Sandra; Pollmächer, Johannes; Hünniger, Kerstin; Kurzai, Oliver; Figge, Marc Thilo

2015-01-01

Opportunistic fungal pathogens can cause bloodstream infection and severe sepsis upon entering the blood stream of the host. The early immune response in human blood comprises the elimination of pathogens by antimicrobial peptides and innate immune cells, such as neutrophils or monocytes. Mathematical modeling is a predictive method to examine these complex processes and to quantify the dynamics of pathogen-host interactions. Since model parameters are often not directly accessible from experiment, their estimation is required by calibrating model predictions with experimental data. Depending on the complexity of the mathematical model, parameter estimation can be associated with excessively high computational costs in terms of run time and memory. We apply a strategy for reliable parameter estimation where different modeling approaches with increasing complexity are used that build on one another. This bottom-up modeling approach is applied to an experimental human whole-blood infection assay for Candida albicans. Aiming for the quantification of the relative impact of different routes of the immune response against this human-pathogenic fungus, we start from a non-spatial state-based model (SBM), because this level of model complexity allows estimating a priori unknown transition rates between various system states by the global optimization method simulated annealing. Building on the non-spatial SBM, an agent-based model (ABM) is implemented that incorporates the migration of interacting cells in three-dimensional space. The ABM takes advantage of estimated parameters from the non-spatial SBM, leading to a decreased dimensionality of the parameter space. This space can be scanned using a local optimization approach, i.e., least-squares error estimation based on an adaptive regular grid search, to predict cell migration parameters that are not accessible in experiment. In the future, spatio-temporal simulations of whole-blood samples may enable timely stratification of sepsis patients by distinguishing hyper-inflammatory from paralytic phases in immune dysregulation. PMID:26150807

Bottom-up modeling approach for the quantitative estimation of parameters in pathogen-host interactions.

PubMed

Lehnert, Teresa; Timme, Sandra; Pollmächer, Johannes; Hünniger, Kerstin; Kurzai, Oliver; Figge, Marc Thilo

2015-01-01

Opportunistic fungal pathogens can cause bloodstream infection and severe sepsis upon entering the blood stream of the host. The early immune response in human blood comprises the elimination of pathogens by antimicrobial peptides and innate immune cells, such as neutrophils or monocytes. Mathematical modeling is a predictive method to examine these complex processes and to quantify the dynamics of pathogen-host interactions. Since model parameters are often not directly accessible from experiment, their estimation is required by calibrating model predictions with experimental data. Depending on the complexity of the mathematical model, parameter estimation can be associated with excessively high computational costs in terms of run time and memory. We apply a strategy for reliable parameter estimation where different modeling approaches with increasing complexity are used that build on one another. This bottom-up modeling approach is applied to an experimental human whole-blood infection assay for Candida albicans. Aiming for the quantification of the relative impact of different routes of the immune response against this human-pathogenic fungus, we start from a non-spatial state-based model (SBM), because this level of model complexity allows estimating a priori unknown transition rates between various system states by the global optimization method simulated annealing. Building on the non-spatial SBM, an agent-based model (ABM) is implemented that incorporates the migration of interacting cells in three-dimensional space. The ABM takes advantage of estimated parameters from the non-spatial SBM, leading to a decreased dimensionality of the parameter space. This space can be scanned using a local optimization approach, i.e., least-squares error estimation based on an adaptive regular grid search, to predict cell migration parameters that are not accessible in experiment. In the future, spatio-temporal simulations of whole-blood samples may enable timely stratification of sepsis patients by distinguishing hyper-inflammatory from paralytic phases in immune dysregulation.

Coupling Cellular Automata Land Use Change with Distributed Hydrologic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, L.; Duffy, C.

2017-12-01

There has been extensive research on LUC modeling with broad applications to simulating urban growth and changing demographic patterns across multiple scales. The importance of land conversion is a critical issue in watershed scale studies and is generally not treated in most watershed modeling approaches. In this study we apply spatially explicit hydrologic and landuse change models and the Conestoga Watershed in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) partitions the water balance in space and time over the urban catchment, the coupled Cellular Automata Land Use Change model (CALUC) dynamically simulates the evolution of land use classes based on physical measures associated with population change and land use demand factors. The CALUC model is based on iteratively applying discrete rules to each individual spatial cell. The essence the CA modeling involves calculation of the Transition Potential (TP) for conversion of a grid cell from one land use class to another. This potential includes five factors: random perturbation, suitability, accessibility, neighborhood effect, inertia effects and zonal factors. In spite of simplicity, this CALUC model has been shown to be very effective for simulating LUC leading to the emergence of complex spatial patterns. The components of TP are derived from present land use data for landuse reanalysis and for realistic future land use scenarios. For the CALUC we use early-settlement (circa 1790) initial land class values and final or present-day (2010) land classes to calibrate the model. CALUC- PIHM dynamically simulates the hydrologic response of conversion from pre-settlement to present landuse. The simulations highlight the capability and value of dynamic coupling of catchment hydrology with land use change over long time periods. Analysis of the simulation uses various metrics such as the distributed water balance, flow duration curves, etc. to show how deforestation, urbanization and agricultural land development interact for the period 1790- present.

A High Performance Bayesian Computing Framework for Spatiotemporal Uncertainty Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, G.

2015-12-01

All types of spatiotemporal measurements are subject to uncertainty. With spatiotemporal data becomes increasingly involved in scientific research and decision making, it is important to appropriately model the impact of uncertainty. Quantitatively modeling spatiotemporal uncertainty, however, is a challenging problem considering the complex dependence and dataheterogeneities.State-space models provide a unifying and intuitive framework for dynamic systems modeling. In this paper, we aim to extend the conventional state-space models for uncertainty modeling in space-time contexts while accounting for spatiotemporal effects and data heterogeneities. Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF) models, also known as conditional autoregressive models, are arguably the most commonly used methods for modeling of spatially dependent data. GMRF models basically assume that a geo-referenced variable primarily depends on its neighborhood (Markov property), and the spatial dependence structure is described via a precision matrix. Recent study has shown that GMRFs are efficient approximation to the commonly used Gaussian fields (e.g., Kriging), and compared with Gaussian fields, GMRFs enjoy a series of appealing features, such as fast computation and easily accounting for heterogeneities in spatial data (e.g, point and areal). This paper represents each spatial dataset as a GMRF and integrates them into a state-space form to statistically model the temporal dynamics. Different types of spatial measurements (e.g., categorical, count or continuous), can be accounted for by according link functions. A fast alternative to MCMC framework, so-called Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA), was adopted for model inference.Preliminary case studies will be conducted to showcase the advantages of the described framework. In the first case, we apply the proposed method for modeling the water table elevation of Ogallala aquifer over the past decades. In the second case, we analyze the drought impacts in Texas counties in the past years, where the spatiotemporal dynamics are represented in areal data.

Source term evaluation for combustion modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sussman, Myles A.

1993-01-01

A modification is developed for application to the source terms used in combustion modeling. The modification accounts for the error of the finite difference scheme in regions where chain-branching chemical reactions produce exponential growth of species densities. The modification is first applied to a one-dimensional scalar model problem. It is then generalized to multiple chemical species, and used in quasi-one-dimensional computations of shock-induced combustion in a channel. Grid refinement studies demonstrate the improved accuracy of the method using this modification. The algorithm is applied in two spatial dimensions and used in simulations of steady and unsteady shock-induced combustion. Comparisons with ballistic range experiments give confidence in the numerical technique and the 9-species hydrogen-air chemistry model.

Three-dimensional hydrogeological modelling application to the Alverà mudslide (Cortina d'Ampezzo, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonomi, Tullia; Cavallin, Angelo

1999-10-01

Within the framework of Geographic Information System (GIS), the distributed three-dimensional groundwater model MODFLOW has been applied to evaluate the groundwater processes of the hydrogeological system in the Alverà mudslide (Cortina d'Ampezzo, Italy; test site in the TESLEC Project of the European Union). The application of this model has permitted an analysis of the spatial distribution of the structure (DTM and landslide bottom) and the mass transfer elements of the hydrogeological system. The field survey suggested zoning the area on the basis of the recharge, groundwater fluctuation and drainage system. For each zone, a hydraulic conductivity value to simulate the different recharge and the drainage responses has been assigned. The effect of rainfall infiltration into the ground and its effect on the groundwater table, with different intensity related to different time periods, have been simulated to reproduce the real condition of the area. The applied model can simulate the positive fluctuations of the water table on the whole landslide, with a different response of the hydrogeological system in each zone. The spatial simulated water level distribution is in accordance with the real one, with very small difference between them. The application of distributed three-dimensional models, within the framework of GIS, is an approach which permits data to be continually updated, standardised and integrated.

Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model in Rwanda.

PubMed

Nsengiyumva, Jean Baptiste; Luo, Geping; Nahayo, Lamek; Huang, Xiaotao; Cai, Peng

2018-01-31

Landslides susceptibility assessment has to be conducted to identify prone areas and guide risk management. Landslides in Rwanda are very deadly disasters. The current research aimed to conduct landslide susceptibility assessment by applying Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model with eight layers of causal factors including: slope, distance to roads, lithology, precipitation, soil texture, soil depth, altitude and land cover. In total, 980 past landslide locations were mapped. The relationship between landslide factors and inventory map was calculated using the Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation. The results revealed that susceptibility is spatially distributed countrywide with 42.3% of the region classified from moderate to very high susceptibility, and this is inhabited by 49.3% of the total population. In addition, Provinces with high to very high susceptibility are West, North and South (40.4%, 22.8% and 21.5%, respectively). Subsequently, the Eastern Province becomes the peak under low susceptibility category (87.8%) with no very high susceptibility (0%). Based on these findings, the employed model produced accurate and reliable outcome in terms of susceptibility, since 49.5% of past landslides fell within the very high susceptibility category, which confirms the model's performance. The outcomes of this study will be useful for future initiatives related to landslide risk reduction and management.

Determining Selection across Heterogeneous Landscapes: A Perturbation-Based Method and Its Application to Modeling Evolution in Space.

PubMed

Wickman, Jonas; Diehl, Sebastian; Blasius, Bernd; Klausmeier, Christopher A; Ryabov, Alexey B; Brännström, Åke

2017-04-01

Spatial structure can decisively influence the way evolutionary processes unfold. To date, several methods have been used to study evolution in spatial systems, including population genetics, quantitative genetics, moment-closure approximations, and individual-based models. Here we extend the study of spatial evolutionary dynamics to eco-evolutionary models based on reaction-diffusion equations and adaptive dynamics. Specifically, we derive expressions for the strength of directional and stabilizing/disruptive selection that apply both in continuous space and to metacommunities with symmetrical dispersal between patches. For directional selection on a quantitative trait, this yields a way to integrate local directional selection across space and determine whether the trait value will increase or decrease. The robustness of this prediction is validated against quantitative genetics. For stabilizing/disruptive selection, we show that spatial heterogeneity always contributes to disruptive selection and hence always promotes evolutionary branching. The expression for directional selection is numerically very efficient and hence lends itself to simulation studies of evolutionary community assembly. We illustrate the application and utility of the expressions for this purpose with two examples of the evolution of resource utilization. Finally, we outline the domain of applicability of reaction-diffusion equations as a modeling framework and discuss their limitations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aaboud, M.; Aad, G.; Abbott, B.

Results of a search for new phenomena in events with an energetic photon and large missing transverse momentum with the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider are reported. The data were collected in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 3.2 fb -1. The observed data are in agreement with the Standard Model expectations. Exclusion limits are presented in models of new phenomena including pair production of dark matter candidates or large extra spatial dimensions. In a simplified model of dark matter and an axial-vector mediator, the search excludes mediatormore » masses below 710 GeV for dark matter candidate masses below 150 GeV. In an effective theory of dark matter production, values of the suppression scale M * up to 570 GeV are excluded and the effect of truncation for various coupling values is reported. Finally, for the ADD large extra spatial dimension model the search places more stringent limits than earlier searches in the same event topology, excluding M D up to about 2.3 (2.8) TeV for two (six) additional spatial dimensions; the limits are reduced by 20-40% depending on the number of additional spatial dimensions when applying a truncation procedure.« less

Modeling Spatial Dependence of Rainfall Extremes Across Multiple Durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2018-03-01

Determining the probability of a flood event in a catchment given that another flood has occurred in a nearby catchment is useful in the design of infrastructure such as road networks that have multiple river crossings. These conditional flood probabilities can be estimated by calculating conditional probabilities of extreme rainfall and then transforming rainfall to runoff through a hydrologic model. Each catchment's hydrological response times are unlikely to be the same, so in order to estimate these conditional probabilities one must consider the dependence of extreme rainfall both across space and across critical storm durations. To represent these types of dependence, this study proposes a new approach for combining extreme rainfall across different durations within a spatial extreme value model using max-stable process theory. This is achieved in a stepwise manner. The first step defines a set of common parameters for the marginal distributions across multiple durations. The parameters are then spatially interpolated to develop a spatial field. Storm-level dependence is represented through the max-stable process for rainfall extremes across different durations. The dependence model shows a reasonable fit between the observed pairwise extremal coefficients and the theoretical pairwise extremal coefficient function across all durations. The study demonstrates how the approach can be applied to develop conditional maps of the return period and return level across different durations.

Modeling Culex tarsalis abundance on the northern Colorado front range using a landscape-level approach.

PubMed

Schurich, Jessica A; Kumar, Sunil; Eisen, Lars; Moore, Chester G

2014-03-01

Remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) data can be used to identify larval mosquito habitats and predict species distribution and abundance across a landscape. An understanding of the landscape features that impact abundance and dispersal can then be applied operationally in mosquito control efforts to reduce the transmission of mosquito-borne pathogens. In an effort to better understand the effects of landscape heterogeneity on the abundance of the West Nile virus (WNV) vector Culex tarsalis, we determined associations between GIS-based environmental data at multiple spatial extents and monthly abundance of adult Cx. tarsalis in Larimer County and Weld County, CO. Mosquito data were collected from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention miniature light traps operated as part of local WNV surveillance efforts. Multiple regression models were developed for prediction of monthly Cx. tarsalis abundance for June, July, and August using 4 years of data collected over 2007-10. The models explained monthly adult mosquito abundance with accuracies ranging from 51-61% in Fort Collins and 57-88% in Loveland-Johnstown. Models derived using landscape-level predictors indicated that adult Cx. tarsalis abundance is negatively correlated with elevation. In this case, low-elevation areas likely more abundantly include habitats for Cx. tarsalis. Model output indicated that the perimeter of larval sites is a significant predictor of Cx. tarsalis abundance at a spatial extent of 500 m in Loveland-Johnstown in all months examined. The contribution of irrigated crops at a spatial extent of 500 m improved model fit in August in both Fort Collins and Loveland-Johnstown. These results emphasize the significance of irrigation and the manual control of water across the landscape to provide viable larval habitats for Cx. tarsalis in the study area. Results from multiple regression models can be applied operationally to identify areas of larval Cx. tarsalis production (irrigated crops lands and standing water) and assign priority in larval treatments to areas with a high density of larval sites at relevant spatial extents around urban locations.

Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data in a Spatially Explicit Price Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Prince, Stephen D.

2007-01-01

Famine early warning organizations use data from multiple disciplines to assess food insecurity of communities and regions in less-developed parts of the World. In this paper we integrate several indicators that are available to enhance the information for preparation for and responses to food security emergencies. The assessment uses a price model based on the relationship between the suitability of the growing season and market prices for coarse grain. The model is then used to create spatially continuous maps of millet prices. The model is applied to the dry central and northern areas of West Africa, using satellite-derived vegetation indices for the entire region. By coupling the model with vegetation data estimated for one to four months into the future, maps are created of a leading indicator of potential price movements. It is anticipated that these maps can be used to enable early warning of famine and for planning appropriate responses.

Spectral-spatial classification of hyperspectral image using three-dimensional convolution network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Bing; Yu, Xuchu; Zhang, Pengqiang; Tan, Xiong; Wang, Ruirui; Zhi, Lu

2018-01-01

Recently, hyperspectral image (HSI) classification has become a focus of research. However, the complex structure of an HSI makes feature extraction difficult to achieve. Most current methods build classifiers based on complex handcrafted features computed from the raw inputs. The design of an improved 3-D convolutional neural network (3D-CNN) model for HSI classification is described. This model extracts features from both the spectral and spatial dimensions through the application of 3-D convolutions, thereby capturing the important discrimination information encoded in multiple adjacent bands. The designed model views the HSI cube data altogether without relying on any pre- or postprocessing. In addition, the model is trained in an end-to-end fashion without any handcrafted features. The designed model was applied to three widely used HSI datasets. The experimental results demonstrate that the 3D-CNN-based method outperforms conventional methods even with limited labeled training samples.

Predicting the potential distribution of the amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in East and Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Moriguchi, Sachiko; Tominaga, Atsushi; Irwin, Kelly J; Freake, Michael J; Suzuki, Kazutaka; Goka, Koichi

2015-04-08

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is the pathogen responsible for chytridiomycosis, a disease that is associated with a worldwide amphibian population decline. In this study, we predicted the potential distribution of Bd in East and Southeast Asia based on limited occurrence data. Our goal was to design an effective survey area where efforts to detect the pathogen can be focused. We generated ecological niche models using the maximum-entropy approach, with alleviation of multicollinearity and spatial autocorrelation. We applied eigenvector-based spatial filters as independent variables, in addition to environmental variables, to resolve spatial autocorrelation, and compared the model's accuracy and the degree of spatial autocorrelation with those of a model estimated using only environmental variables. We were able to identify areas of high suitability for Bd with accuracy. Among the environmental variables, factors related to temperature and precipitation were more effective in predicting the potential distribution of Bd than factors related to land use and cover type. Our study successfully predicted the potential distribution of Bd in East and Southeast Asia. This information should now be used to prioritize survey areas and generate a surveillance program to detect the pathogen.

Remote sensing and spatial statistical techniques for modelling Ommatissus lybicus (Hemiptera: Tropiduchidae) habitat and population densities

PubMed Central

Kwan, Paul; Welch, Mitchell

2017-01-01

In order to understand the distribution and prevalence of Ommatissus lybicus (Hemiptera: Tropiduchidae) as well as analyse their current biographical patterns and predict their future spread, comprehensive and detailed information on the environmental, climatic, and agricultural practices are essential. The spatial analytical techniques such as Remote Sensing and Spatial Statistics Tools, can help detect and model spatial links and correlations between the presence, absence and density of O. lybicus in response to climatic, environmental, and human factors. The main objective of this paper is to review remote sensing and relevant analytical techniques that can be applied in mapping and modelling the habitat and population density of O. lybicus. An exhaustive search of related literature revealed that there are very limited studies linking location-based infestation levels of pests like the O. lybicus with climatic, environmental, and human practice related variables. This review also highlights the accumulated knowledge and addresses the gaps in this area of research. Furthermore, it makes recommendations for future studies, and gives suggestions on monitoring and surveillance methods in designing both local and regional level integrated pest management strategies of palm tree and other affected cultivated crops. PMID:28875085

Remote sensing and spatial statistical techniques for modelling Ommatissus lybicus (Hemiptera: Tropiduchidae) habitat and population densities.

PubMed

Al-Kindi, Khalifa M; Kwan, Paul; R Andrew, Nigel; Welch, Mitchell

2017-01-01

In order to understand the distribution and prevalence of Ommatissus lybicus (Hemiptera: Tropiduchidae) as well as analyse their current biographical patterns and predict their future spread, comprehensive and detailed information on the environmental, climatic, and agricultural practices are essential. The spatial analytical techniques such as Remote Sensing and Spatial Statistics Tools, can help detect and model spatial links and correlations between the presence, absence and density of O. lybicus in response to climatic, environmental, and human factors. The main objective of this paper is to review remote sensing and relevant analytical techniques that can be applied in mapping and modelling the habitat and population density of O. lybicus . An exhaustive search of related literature revealed that there are very limited studies linking location-based infestation levels of pests like the O. lybicus with climatic, environmental, and human practice related variables. This review also highlights the accumulated knowledge and addresses the gaps in this area of research. Furthermore, it makes recommendations for future studies, and gives suggestions on monitoring and surveillance methods in designing both local and regional level integrated pest management strategies of palm tree and other affected cultivated crops.

Soil Moisture fusion across scales using a multiscale nonstationary Spatial Hierarchical Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kathuria, D.; Mohanty, B.; Katzfuss, M.

2017-12-01

Soil moisture (SM) datasets from remote sensing (RS) platforms (such as SMOS and SMAP) and reanalysis products from land surface models are typically available on a coarse spatial granularity of several square km. Ground based sensors, on the other hand, provide observations on a finer spatial scale (meter scale or less) but are sparsely available. SM is affected by high variability due to complex interactions between geologic, topographic, vegetation and atmospheric variables and these interactions change dynamically with footprint scales. Past literature has largely focused on the scale specific effect of these covariates on soil moisture. The present study proposes a robust Multiscale-Nonstationary Spatial Hierarchical Model (MN-SHM) which can assimilate SM from point to RS footprints. The spatial structure of SM across footprints is modeled by a class of scalable covariance functions whose nonstationary depends on atmospheric forcings (such as precipitation) and surface physical controls (such as topography, soil-texture and vegetation). The proposed model is applied to fuse point and airborne ( 1.5 km) SM data obtained during the SMAPVEX12 campaign in the Red River watershed in Southern Manitoba, Canada with SMOS ( 30km) data. It is observed that precipitation, soil-texture and vegetation are the dominant factors which affect the SM distribution across various footprint scales (750 m, 1.5 km, 3 km, 9 km,15 km and 30 km). We conclude that MN-SHM handles the change of support problems easily while retaining reasonable predictive accuracy across multiple spatial resolutions in the presence of surface heterogeneity. The MN-SHM can be considered as a complex non-stationary extension of traditional geostatistical prediction methods (such as Kriging) for fusing multi-platform multi-scale datasets.

Fine Particulate Matter Predictions Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chudnovsky, Alexandra A.; Koutrakis, Petros; Kloog, Itai; Melly, Steven; Nordio, Francesco; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Jujie; Schwartz, Joel

2014-01-01

To date, spatial-temporal patterns of particulate matter (PM) within urban areas have primarily been examined using models. On the other hand, satellites extend spatial coverage but their spatial resolution is too coarse. In order to address this issue, here we report on spatial variability in PM levels derived from high 1 km resolution AOD product of Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm developed for MODIS satellite. We apply day-specific calibrations of AOD data to predict PM(sub 2.5) concentrations within the New England area of the United States. To improve the accuracy of our model, land use and meteorological variables were incorporated. We used inverse probability weighting (IPW) to account for nonrandom missingness of AOD and nested regions within days to capture spatial variation. With this approach we can control for the inherent day-to-day variability in the AOD-PM(sub 2.5) relationship, which depends on time-varying parameters such as particle optical properties, vertical and diurnal concentration profiles and ground surface reflectance among others. Out-of-sample "ten-fold" cross-validation was used to quantify the accuracy of model predictions. Our results show that the model-predicted PM(sub 2.5) mass concentrations are highly correlated with the actual observations, with out-of- sample R(sub 2) of 0.89. Furthermore, our study shows that the model captures the pollution levels along highways and many urban locations thereby extending our ability to investigate the spatial patterns of urban air quality, such as examining exposures in areas with high traffic. Our results also show high accuracy within the cities of Boston and New Haven thereby indicating that MAIAC data can be used to examine intra-urban exposure contrasts in PM(sub 2.5) levels.

The pyramid system for multiscale raster analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

De Cola, L.; Montagne, N.

1993-01-01

Geographical research requires the management and analysis of spatial data at multiple scales. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's global change research program a software system has been developed that reads raster data (such as an image or digital elevation model) and produces a pyramid of aggregated lattices as well as various measurements of spatial complexity. For a given raster dataset the system uses the pyramid to report: (1) mean, (2) variance, (3) a spatial autocorrelation parameter based on multiscale analysis of variance, and (4) a monofractal scaling parameter based on the analysis of isoline lengths. The system is applied to 1-km digital elevation model (DEM) data for a 256-km2 region of central California, as well as to 64 partitions of the region. PYRAMID, which offers robust descriptions of data complexity, also is used to describe the behavior of topographic aspect with scale. ?? 1993.

Time-varying correlations in global real estate markets: A multivariate GARCH with spatial effects approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Huaying; Liu, Zhixue; Weng, Yingliang

2017-04-01

The present study applies the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) with spatial effects approach for the analysis of the time-varying conditional correlations and contagion effects among global real estate markets. A distinguishing feature of the proposed model is that it can simultaneously capture the spatial interactions and the dynamic conditional correlations compared with the traditional MGARCH models. Results reveal that the estimated dynamic conditional correlations have exhibited significant increases during the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, thereby suggesting contagion effects among global real estate markets. The analysis further indicates that the returns of the regional real estate markets that are in close geographic and economic proximities exhibit strong co-movement. In addition, evidence of significantly positive leverage effects in global real estate markets is also determined. The findings have significant implications on global portfolio diversification opportunities and risk management practices.

A GIS Tool for evaluating and improving NEXRAD and its application in distributed hydrologic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Srinivasan, R.

2008-12-01

In this study, a user friendly GIS tool was developed for evaluating and improving NEXRAD using raingauge data. This GIS tool can automatically read in raingauge and NEXRAD data, evaluate the accuracy of NEXRAD for each time unit, implement several geostatistical methods to improve the accuracy of NEXRAD through raingauge data, and output spatial precipitation map for distributed hydrologic model. The geostatistical methods incorporated in this tool include Simple Kriging with varying local means, Kriging with External Drift, Regression Kriging, Co-Kriging, and a new geostatistical method that was newly developed by Li et al. (2008). This tool was applied in two test watersheds at hourly and daily temporal scale. The preliminary cross-validation results show that incorporating raingauge data to calibrate NEXRAD can pronouncedly change the spatial pattern of NEXRAD and improve its accuracy. Using different geostatistical methods, the GIS tool was applied to produce long term precipitation input for a distributed hydrologic model - Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Animated video was generated to vividly illustrate the effect of using different precipitation input data on distributed hydrologic modeling. Currently, this GIS tool is developed as an extension of SWAT, which is used as water quantity and quality modeling tool by USDA and EPA. The flexible module based design of this tool also makes it easy to be adapted for other hydrologic models for hydrological modeling and water resources management.

Gutzwiller Monte Carlo approach for a critical dissipative spin model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casteels, Wim; Wilson, Ryan M.; Wouters, Michiel

2018-06-01

We use the Gutzwiller Monte Carlo approach to simulate the dissipative X Y Z model in the vicinity of a dissipative phase transition. This approach captures classical spatial correlations together with the full on-site quantum behavior while neglecting nonlocal quantum effects. By considering finite two-dimensional lattices of various sizes, we identify a ferromagnetic and two paramagnetic phases, in agreement with earlier studies. The greatly reduced numerical complexity of the Gutzwiller Monte Carlo approach facilitates efficient simulation of relatively large lattice sizes. The inclusion of the spatial correlations allows to capture parts of the phase diagram that are completely missed by the widely applied Gutzwiller decoupling of the density matrix.

Portable measurement system for real-time acquisition and analysis of in-vivo spatially resolved reflectance in the subdiffusive regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naglič, Peter; Ivančič, Matic; Pernuš, Franjo; Likar, Boštjan; Bürmen, Miran

2018-02-01

A measurement system was developed to acquire and analyze subdiffusive spatially resolved reflectance using an optical fiber probe with short source-detector separations. Since subdiffusive reflectance significantly depends on the scattering phase function, the analysis of the acquired reflectance is based on a novel inverse Monte Carlo model that allows estimation of phase function related parameters in addition to the absorption and reduced scattering coefficients. In conjunction with our measurement system, the model allowed real-time estimation of optical properties, which we demonstrate for a case of dynamically induced changes in human skin by applying pressure with an optical fiber probe.

A finite elements method to solve the Bloch–Torrey equation applied to diffusion magnetic resonance imaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nguyen, Dang Van; NeuroSpin, Bat145, Point Courrier 156, CEA Saclay Center, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex; Li, Jing-Rebecca, E-mail: jingrebecca.li@inria.fr

2014-04-15

The complex transverse water proton magnetization subject to diffusion-encoding magnetic field gradient pulses in a heterogeneous medium can be modeled by the multiple compartment Bloch–Torrey partial differential equation (PDE). In addition, steady-state Laplace PDEs can be formulated to produce the homogenized diffusion tensor that describes the diffusion characteristics of the medium in the long time limit. In spatial domains that model biological tissues at the cellular level, these two types of PDEs have to be completed with permeability conditions on the cellular interfaces. To solve these PDEs, we implemented a finite elements method that allows jumps in the solution atmore » the cell interfaces by using double nodes. Using a transformation of the Bloch–Torrey PDE we reduced oscillations in the searched-for solution and simplified the implementation of the boundary conditions. The spatial discretization was then coupled to the adaptive explicit Runge–Kutta–Chebyshev time-stepping method. Our proposed method is second order accurate in space and second order accurate in time. We implemented this method on the FEniCS C++ platform and show time and spatial convergence results. Finally, this method is applied to study some relevant questions in diffusion MRI.« less

A Model-Based Approach for Microvasculature Structure Distortion Correction in Two-Photon Fluorescence Microscopy Images

PubMed Central

Dao, Lam; Glancy, Brian; Lucotte, Bertrand; Chang, Lin-Ching; Balaban, Robert S; Hsu, Li-Yueh

2015-01-01

SUMMARY This paper investigates a post-processing approach to correct spatial distortion in two-photon fluorescence microscopy images for vascular network reconstruction. It is aimed at in vivo imaging of large field-of-view, deep-tissue studies of vascular structures. Based on simple geometric modeling of the object-of-interest, a distortion function is directly estimated from the image volume by deconvolution analysis. Such distortion function is then applied to sub volumes of the image stack to adaptively adjust for spatially varying distortion and reduce the image blurring through blind deconvolution. The proposed technique was first evaluated in phantom imaging of fluorescent microspheres that are comparable in size to the underlying capillary vascular structures. The effectiveness of restoring three-dimensional spherical geometry of the microspheres using the estimated distortion function was compared with empirically measured point-spread function. Next, the proposed approach was applied to in vivo vascular imaging of mouse skeletal muscle to reduce the image distortion of the capillary structures. We show that the proposed method effectively improve the image quality and reduce spatially varying distortion that occurs in large field-of-view deep-tissue vascular dataset. The proposed method will help in qualitative interpretation and quantitative analysis of vascular structures from fluorescence microscopy images. PMID:26224257

Effect of spatial variability of storm on the optimal placement of best management practices (BMPs).

PubMed

Chang, C L; Chiueh, P T; Lo, S L

2007-12-01

It is significant to design best management practices (BMPs) and determine the proper BMPs placement for the purpose that can not only satisfy the water quantity and water quality standard, but also lower the total cost of BMPs. The spatial rainfall variability can have much effect on its relative runoff and non-point source pollution (NPSP). Meantime, the optimal design and placement of BMPs would be different as well. The objective of this study was to discuss the relationship between the spatial variability of rainfall and the optimal BMPs placements. Three synthetic rainfall storms with varied spatial distributions, including uniform rainfall, downstream rainfall and upstream rainfall, were designed. WinVAST model was applied to predict runoff and NPSP. Additionally, detention pond and swale were selected for being structural BMPs. Scatter search was applied to find the optimal BMPs placement. The results show that mostly the total cost of BMPs is higher in downstream rainfall than in upstream rainfall or uniform rainfall. Moreover, the cost of detention pond is much higher than swale. Thus, even though detention pond has larger efficiency for lowering peak flow and pollutant exports, it is not always the determined set in each subbasin.

Optimizing the scale of markets for water quality trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doyle, Martin W.; Patterson, Lauren A.; Chen, Yanyou; Schnier, Kurt E.; Yates, Andrew J.

2014-09-01

Applying market approaches to environmental regulations requires establishing a spatial scale for trading. Spatially large markets usually increase opportunities for abatement cost savings but increase the potential for pollution damages (hot spots), vice versa for spatially small markets. We develop a coupled hydrologic-economic modeling approach for application to point source emissions trading by a large number of sources and apply this approach to the wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) within the watershed of the second largest estuary in the U.S. We consider two different administrative structures that govern the trade of emission permits: one-for-one trading (the number of permits required for each unit of emission is the same for every WWTP) and trading ratios (the number of permits required for each unit of emissions varies across WWTP). Results show that water quality regulators should allow trading to occur at the river basin scale as an appropriate first-step policy, as is being done in a limited number of cases via compliance associations. Larger spatial scales may be needed under conditions of increased abatement costs. The optimal scale of the market is generally the same regardless of whether one-for-one trading or trading ratios are employed.

A parameter estimation algorithm for spatial sine testing - Theory and evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rost, R. W.; Deblauwe, F.

1992-01-01

This paper presents the theory and an evaluation of a spatial sine testing parameter estimation algorithm that uses directly the measured forced mode of vibration and the measured force vector. The parameter estimation algorithm uses an ARMA model and a recursive QR algorithm is applied for data reduction. In this first evaluation, the algorithm has been applied to a frequency response matrix (which is a particular set of forced mode of vibration) using a sliding frequency window. The objective of the sliding frequency window is to execute the analysis simultaneously with the data acquisition. Since the pole values and the modal density are obtained from this analysis during the acquisition, the analysis information can be used to help determine the forcing vectors during the experimental data acquisition.

Constraining geostatistical models with hydrological data to improve prediction realism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demyanov, V.; Rojas, T.; Christie, M.; Arnold, D.

2012-04-01

Geostatistical models reproduce spatial correlation based on the available on site data and more general concepts about the modelled patters, e.g. training images. One of the problem of modelling natural systems with geostatistics is in maintaining realism spatial features and so they agree with the physical processes in nature. Tuning the model parameters to the data may lead to geostatistical realisations with unrealistic spatial patterns, which would still honour the data. Such model would result in poor predictions, even though although fit the available data well. Conditioning the model to a wider range of relevant data provide a remedy that avoid producing unrealistic features in spatial models. For instance, there are vast amounts of information about the geometries of river channels that can be used in describing fluvial environment. Relations between the geometrical channel characteristics (width, depth, wave length, amplitude, etc.) are complex and non-parametric and are exhibit a great deal of uncertainty, which is important to propagate rigorously into the predictive model. These relations can be described within a Bayesian approach as multi-dimensional prior probability distributions. We propose a way to constrain multi-point statistics models with intelligent priors obtained from analysing a vast collection of contemporary river patterns based on previously published works. We applied machine learning techniques, namely neural networks and support vector machines, to extract multivariate non-parametric relations between geometrical characteristics of fluvial channels from the available data. An example demonstrates how ensuring geological realism helps to deliver more reliable prediction of a subsurface oil reservoir in a fluvial depositional environment.

Autoregressive spatially varying coefficients model for predicting daily PM2.5 using VIIRS satellite AOT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schliep, E. M.; Gelfand, A. E.; Holland, D. M.

2015-12-01

There is considerable demand for accurate air quality information in human health analyses. The sparsity of ground monitoring stations across the United States motivates the need for advanced statistical models to predict air quality metrics, such as PM2.5, at unobserved sites. Remote sensing technologies have the potential to expand our knowledge of PM2.5 spatial patterns beyond what we can predict from current PM2.5 monitoring networks. Data from satellites have an additional advantage in not requiring extensive emission inventories necessary for most atmospheric models that have been used in earlier data fusion models for air pollution. Statistical models combining monitoring station data with satellite-obtained aerosol optical thickness (AOT), also referred to as aerosol optical depth (AOD), have been proposed in the literature with varying levels of success in predicting PM2.5. The benefit of using AOT is that satellites provide complete gridded spatial coverage. However, the challenges involved with using it in fusion models are (1) the correlation between the two data sources varies both in time and in space, (2) the data sources are temporally and spatially misaligned, and (3) there is extensive missingness in the monitoring data and also in the satellite data due to cloud cover. We propose a hierarchical autoregressive spatially varying coefficients model to jointly model the two data sources, which addresses the foregoing challenges. Additionally, we offer formal model comparison for competing models in terms of model fit and out of sample prediction of PM2.5. The models are applied to daily observations of PM2.5 and AOT in the summer months of 2013 across the conterminous United States. Most notably, during this time period, we find small in-sample improvement incorporating AOT into our autoregressive model but little out-of-sample predictive improvement.

'spup' - an R package for uncertainty propagation in spatial environmental modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawicka, Kasia; Heuvelink, Gerard

2016-04-01

Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Currently, advances in uncertainty propagation and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability, including case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the 'spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo (MC) techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Uncertain environmental variables are represented in the package as objects whose attribute values may be uncertain and described by probability distributions. Both numerical and categorical data types are handled. Spatial auto-correlation within an attribute and cross-correlation between attributes is also accommodated for. For uncertainty propagation the package has implemented the MC approach with efficient sampling algorithms, i.e. stratified random sampling and Latin hypercube sampling. The design includes facilitation of parallel computing to speed up MC computation. The MC realizations may be used as an input to the environmental models called from R, or externally. Selected static and interactive visualization methods that are understandable by non-experts with limited background in statistics can be used to summarize and visualize uncertainty about the measured input, model parameters and output of the uncertainty propagation. We demonstrate that the 'spup' package is an effective and easy tool to apply and can be used in multi-disciplinary research and model-based decision support.

'spup' - an R package for uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawicka, Kasia; Heuvelink, Gerard

2017-04-01

Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Currently, advances in uncertainty propagation and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability and being able to deal with case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the 'spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo (MC) techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Uncertain environmental variables are represented in the package as objects whose attribute values may be uncertain and described by probability distributions. Both numerical and categorical data types are handled. Spatial auto-correlation within an attribute and cross-correlation between attributes is also accommodated for. For uncertainty propagation the package has implemented the MC approach with efficient sampling algorithms, i.e. stratified random sampling and Latin hypercube sampling. The design includes facilitation of parallel computing to speed up MC computation. The MC realizations may be used as an input to the environmental models called from R, or externally. Selected visualization methods that are understandable by non-experts with limited background in statistics can be used to summarize and visualize uncertainty about the measured input, model parameters and output of the uncertainty propagation. We demonstrate that the 'spup' package is an effective and easy tool to apply and can be used in multi-disciplinary research and model-based decision support.

Spatially explicit modelling of forest structure and function using airborne lidar and hyperspectral remote sensing data combined with micrometeorological measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Valerie Anne

This research models canopy-scale photosynthesis at the Groundhog River Flux Site through the integration of high-resolution airborne remote sensing data and micrometeorological measurements collected from a flux tower. Light detection and ranging (lidar) data are analysed to derive models of tree structure, including: canopy height, basal area, crown closure, and average aboveground biomass. Lidar and hyperspectral remote sensing data are used to model canopy chlorophyll (Chl) and carotenoid concentrations (known to be good indicators of photosynthesis). The integration of lidar and hyperspectral data is applied to derive spatially explicit models of the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) absorbed by the canopy as well as a species classification for the site. These products are integrated with flux tower meteorological measurements (i.e., air temperature and global solar radiation) collected on a continuous basis over 2004 to apply the C-Fix model of carbon exchange to the site. Results demonstrate that high resolution lidar and lidar-hyperspectral integration techniques perform well in the boreal mixedwood environment. Lidar models are well correlated with forest structure, despite the complexities introduced in the mixedwood case (e.g., r2=0.84, 0.89, 0.60, and 0.91, for mean dominant height, basal area, crown closure, and average aboveground biomass). Strong relationships are also shown for canopy scale chlorophyll/carotenoid concentration analysis using integrated lidar-hyperspectral techniques (e.g., r2=0.84, 0.84, and 0.82 for Chl(a), Chl(a+b), and Chl(b)). Examination of the spatially explicit models of fPAR reveal distinct spatial patterns which become increasingly apparent throughout the season due to the variation in species groupings (and canopy chlorophyll concentration) within the 1 km radius surrounding the flux tower. Comparison of results from the modified local-scale version of the C-Fix model to tower gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) demonstrate a good correlation to flux tower measured GEP (r2=0.70 for 10 day averages), with the largest deviations occurring in June-July. This research has direct benefits for forest inventory mapping and management practices; mapping of canopy physiology and biochemical constituents related to forest health; and scaling and direct comparison to large resolution satellite models to help bridge the gap between the local-scale measurements at flux towers and predictions derived from continental-scale carbon models.

Computational Software for Fitting Seismic Data to Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, A.

2014-12-01

Modern earthquake catalogs are often analyzed using spatial-temporal point process models such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models of Ogata (1998). My work introduces software to implement two of ETAS models described in Ogata (1998). To find the Maximum-Likelihood Estimates (MLEs), my software provides estimates of the homogeneous background rate parameter and the temporal and spatial parameters that govern triggering effects by applying the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm introduced in Veen and Schoenberg (2008). Despite other computer programs exist for similar data modeling purpose, using EM-algorithm has the benefits of stability and robustness (Veen and Schoenberg, 2008). Spatial shapes that are very long and narrow cause difficulties in optimization convergence and problems with flat or multi-modal log-likelihood functions encounter similar issues. My program uses a robust method to preset a parameter to overcome the non-convergence computational issue. In addition to model fitting, the software is equipped with useful tools for examining modeling fitting results, for example, visualization of estimated conditional intensity, and estimation of expected number of triggered aftershocks. A simulation generator is also given with flexible spatial shapes that may be defined by the user. This open-source software has a very simple user interface. The user may execute it on a local computer, and the program also has potential to be hosted online. Java language is used for the software's core computing part and an optional interface to the statistical package R is provided.

A Review of the Statistical and Quantitative Methods Used to Study Alcohol-Attributable Crime.

PubMed

Fitterer, Jessica L; Nelson, Trisalyn A

2015-01-01

Modelling the relationship between alcohol consumption and crime generates new knowledge for crime prevention strategies. Advances in data, particularly data with spatial and temporal attributes, have led to a growing suite of applied methods for modelling. In support of alcohol and crime researchers we synthesized and critiqued existing methods of spatially and quantitatively modelling the effects of alcohol exposure on crime to aid method selection, and identify new opportunities for analysis strategies. We searched the alcohol-crime literature from 1950 to January 2014. Analyses that statistically evaluated or mapped the association between alcohol and crime were included. For modelling purposes, crime data were most often derived from generalized police reports, aggregated to large spatial units such as census tracts or postal codes, and standardized by residential population data. Sixty-eight of the 90 selected studies included geospatial data of which 48 used cross-sectional datasets. Regression was the prominent modelling choice (n = 78) though dependent on data many variations existed. There are opportunities to improve information for alcohol-attributable crime prevention by using alternative population data to standardize crime rates, sourcing crime information from non-traditional platforms (social media), increasing the number of panel studies, and conducting analysis at the local level (neighbourhood, block, or point). Due to the spatio-temporal advances in crime data, we expect a continued uptake of flexible Bayesian hierarchical modelling, a greater inclusion of spatial-temporal point pattern analysis, and shift toward prospective (forecast) modelling over small areas (e.g., blocks).

A Review of the Statistical and Quantitative Methods Used to Study Alcohol-Attributable Crime

PubMed Central

Fitterer, Jessica L.; Nelson, Trisalyn A.

2015-01-01

Modelling the relationship between alcohol consumption and crime generates new knowledge for crime prevention strategies. Advances in data, particularly data with spatial and temporal attributes, have led to a growing suite of applied methods for modelling. In support of alcohol and crime researchers we synthesized and critiqued existing methods of spatially and quantitatively modelling the effects of alcohol exposure on crime to aid method selection, and identify new opportunities for analysis strategies. We searched the alcohol-crime literature from 1950 to January 2014. Analyses that statistically evaluated or mapped the association between alcohol and crime were included. For modelling purposes, crime data were most often derived from generalized police reports, aggregated to large spatial units such as census tracts or postal codes, and standardized by residential population data. Sixty-eight of the 90 selected studies included geospatial data of which 48 used cross-sectional datasets. Regression was the prominent modelling choice (n = 78) though dependent on data many variations existed. There are opportunities to improve information for alcohol-attributable crime prevention by using alternative population data to standardize crime rates, sourcing crime information from non-traditional platforms (social media), increasing the number of panel studies, and conducting analysis at the local level (neighbourhood, block, or point). Due to the spatio-temporal advances in crime data, we expect a continued uptake of flexible Bayesian hierarchical modelling, a greater inclusion of spatial-temporal point pattern analysis, and shift toward prospective (forecast) modelling over small areas (e.g., blocks). PMID:26418016

Bayesian analysis of zero inflated spatiotemporal HIV/TB child mortality data through the INLA and SPDE approaches: Applied to data observed between 1992 and 2010 in rural North East South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musenge, Eustasius; Chirwa, Tobias Freeman; Kahn, Kathleen; Vounatsou, Penelope

2013-06-01

Longitudinal mortality data with few deaths usually have problems of zero-inflation. This paper presents and applies two Bayesian models which cater for zero-inflation, spatial and temporal random effects. To reduce the computational burden experienced when a large number of geo-locations are treated as a Gaussian field (GF) we transformed the field to a Gaussian Markov Random Fields (GMRF) by triangulation. We then modelled the spatial random effects using the Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDEs). Inference was done using a computationally efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) called Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) suited for GMRF. The models were applied to data from 71,057 children aged 0 to under 10 years from rural north-east South Africa living in 15,703 households over the years 1992-2010. We found protective effects on HIV/TB mortality due to greater birth weight, older age and more antenatal clinic visits during pregnancy (adjusted RR (95% CI)): 0.73(0.53;0.99), 0.18(0.14;0.22) and 0.96(0.94;0.97) respectively. Therefore childhood HIV/TB mortality could be reduced if mothers are better catered for during pregnancy as this can reduce mother-to-child transmissions and contribute to improved birth weights. The INLA and SPDE approaches are computationally good alternatives in modelling large multilevel spatiotemporal GMRF data structures.

Retrieval of total suspended matter concentrations from high resolution WorldView-2 imagery: a case study of inland rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Liangliang; Mao, Zhihua; Wang, Zheng

2018-02-01

Satellite imagery has played an important role in monitoring water quality of lakes or coastal waters presently, but scarcely been applied in inland rivers. This paper presents an attempt of feasibility to apply regression model to quantify and map the concentrations of total suspended matter (CTSM) in inland rivers which have a large scale of spatial and a high CTSM dynamic range by using high resolution satellite remote sensing data, WorldView-2. An empirical approach to quantify CTSM by integrated use of high resolution WorldView-2 multispectral data and 21 in situ CTSM measurements. Radiometric correction, geometric and atmospheric correction involved in image processing procedure is carried out for deriving the surface reflectance to correlate the CTSM and satellite data by using single-variable and multivariable regression technique. Results of regression model show that the single near-infrared (NIR) band 8 of WorldView-2 have a relative strong relationship (R2=0.93) with CTSM. Different prediction models were developed on various combinations of WorldView-2 bands, the Akaike Information Criteria approach was used to choose the best model. The model involving band 1, 3, 5, and 8 of WorldView-2 had a best performance, whose R2 reach to 0.92, with SEE of 53.30 g/m3. The spatial distribution maps were produced by using the best multiple regression model. The results of this paper indicated that it is feasible to apply the empirical model by using high resolution satellite imagery to retrieve CTSM of inland rivers in routine monitoring of water quality.

A holistic approach for large-scale derived flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dung Nguyen, Viet; Apel, Heiko; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Guse, Björn; Sergiy, Vorogushyn; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

Spatial consistency, which has been usually disregarded because of the reported methodological difficulties, is increasingly demanded in regional flood hazard (and risk) assessments. This study aims at developing a holistic approach for deriving flood frequency at large scale consistently. A large scale two-component model has been established for simulating very long-term multisite synthetic meteorological fields and flood flow at many gauged and ungauged locations hence reflecting the spatially inherent heterogeneity. The model has been applied for the region of nearly a half million km2 including Germany and parts of nearby countries. The model performance has been multi-objectively examined with a focus on extreme. By this continuous simulation approach, flood quantiles for the studied region have been derived successfully and provide useful input for a comprehensive flood risk study.

A topological multilayer model of the human body.

PubMed

Barbeito, Antonio; Painho, Marco; Cabral, Pedro; O'Neill, João

2015-11-04

Geographical information systems deal with spatial databases in which topological models are described with alphanumeric information. Its graphical interfaces implement the multilayer concept and provide powerful interaction tools. In this study, we apply these concepts to the human body creating a representation that would allow an interactive, precise, and detailed anatomical study. A vector surface component of the human body is built using a three-dimensional (3-D) reconstruction methodology. This multilayer concept is implemented by associating raster components with the corresponding vector surfaces, which include neighbourhood topology enabling spatial analysis. A root mean square error of 0.18 mm validated the three-dimensional reconstruction technique of internal anatomical structures. The expansion of the identification and the development of a neighbourhood analysis function are the new tools provided in this model.

Reducing representativeness and sampling errors in radio occultation-radiosonde comparisons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilpin, Shay; Rieckh, Therese; Anthes, Richard

2018-05-01

Radio occultation (RO) and radiosonde (RS) comparisons provide a means of analyzing errors associated with both observational systems. Since RO and RS observations are not taken at the exact same time or location, temporal and spatial sampling errors resulting from atmospheric variability can be significant and inhibit error analysis of the observational systems. In addition, the vertical resolutions of RO and RS profiles vary and vertical representativeness errors may also affect the comparison. In RO-RS comparisons, RO observations are co-located with RS profiles within a fixed time window and distance, i.e. within 3-6 h and circles of radii ranging between 100 and 500 km. In this study, we first show that vertical filtering of RO and RS profiles to a common vertical resolution reduces representativeness errors. We then test two methods of reducing horizontal sampling errors during RO-RS comparisons: restricting co-location pairs to within ellipses oriented along the direction of wind flow rather than circles and applying a spatial-temporal sampling correction based on model data. Using data from 2011 to 2014, we compare RO and RS differences at four GCOS Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) RS stations in different climatic locations, in which co-location pairs were constrained to a large circle ( ˜ 666 km radius), small circle ( ˜ 300 km radius), and ellipse parallel to the wind direction ( ˜ 666 km semi-major axis, ˜ 133 km semi-minor axis). We also apply a spatial-temporal sampling correction using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) gridded data. Restricting co-locations to within the ellipse reduces root mean square (RMS) refractivity, temperature, and water vapor pressure differences relative to RMS differences within the large circle and produces differences that are comparable to or less than the RMS differences within circles of similar area. Applying the sampling correction shows the most significant reduction in RMS differences, such that RMS differences are nearly identical to the sampling correction regardless of the geometric constraints. We conclude that implementing the spatial-temporal sampling correction using a reliable model will most effectively reduce sampling errors during RO-RS comparisons; however, if a reliable model is not available, restricting spatial comparisons to within an ellipse parallel to the wind flow will reduce sampling errors caused by horizontal atmospheric variability.

Regional carbon cycle responses to 25 years of variation in climate and disturbance in the US Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

David P. Turner; William D. Ritts; Robert E. Kennedy; Andrew N. Gray; Zhiqiang Yang

2016-01-01

Variation in climate, disturbance regime, and forest management strongly influence terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. Spatially distributed, process-based, carbon cycle simulation models provide a means to integrate information on these various influences to estimate carbon pools and flux over large domains. Here we apply the Biome-BGC model over the four-state...

Improving the Spatial Prediction of Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in a Complex Tropical Mountain Landscape by Methodological Specifications in Machine Learning Approaches

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Johannes; Glaser, Bruno

2016-01-01

Tropical forests are significant carbon sinks and their soils’ carbon storage potential is immense. However, little is known about the soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks of tropical mountain areas whose complex soil-landscape and difficult accessibility pose a challenge to spatial analysis. The choice of methodology for spatial prediction is of high importance to improve the expected poor model results in case of low predictor-response correlations. Four aspects were considered to improve model performance in predicting SOC stocks of the organic layer of a tropical mountain forest landscape: Different spatial predictor settings, predictor selection strategies, various machine learning algorithms and model tuning. Five machine learning algorithms: random forests, artificial neural networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees and support vector machines were trained and tuned to predict SOC stocks from predictors derived from a digital elevation model and satellite image. Topographical predictors were calculated with a GIS search radius of 45 to 615 m. Finally, three predictor selection strategies were applied to the total set of 236 predictors. All machine learning algorithms—including the model tuning and predictor selection—were compared via five repetitions of a tenfold cross-validation. The boosted regression tree algorithm resulted in the overall best model. SOC stocks ranged between 0.2 to 17.7 kg m-2, displaying a huge variability with diffuse insolation and curvatures of different scale guiding the spatial pattern. Predictor selection and model tuning improved the models’ predictive performance in all five machine learning algorithms. The rather low number of selected predictors favours forward compared to backward selection procedures. Choosing predictors due to their indiviual performance was vanquished by the two procedures which accounted for predictor interaction. PMID:27128736

Spatially explicit land-use and land-cover scenarios for the Great Plains of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Bennett, Stacie L.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Kanengieter, Ronald L.; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2012-01-01

The Great Plains of the United States has undergone extensive land-use and land-cover change in the past 150 years, with much of the once vast native grasslands and wetlands converted to agricultural crops, and much of the unbroken prairie now heavily grazed. Future land-use change in the region could have dramatic impacts on ecological resources and processes. A scenario-based modeling framework is needed to support the analysis of potential land-use change in an uncertain future, and to mitigate potentially negative future impacts on ecosystem processes. We developed a scenario-based modeling framework to analyze potential future land-use change in the Great Plains. A unique scenario construction process, using an integrated modeling framework, historical data, workshops, and expert knowledge, was used to develop quantitative demand for future land-use change for four IPCC scenarios at the ecoregion level. The FORE-SCE model ingested the scenario information and produced spatially explicit land-use maps for the region at relatively fine spatial and thematic resolutions. Spatial modeling of the four scenarios provided spatial patterns of land-use change consistent with underlying assumptions and processes associated with each scenario. Economically oriented scenarios were characterized by significant loss of natural land covers and expansion of agricultural and urban land uses. Environmentally oriented scenarios experienced modest declines in natural land covers to slight increases. Model results were assessed for quantity and allocation disagreement between each scenario pair. In conjunction with the U.S. Geological Survey's Biological Carbon Sequestration project, the scenario-based modeling framework used for the Great Plains is now being applied to the entire United States.

Dynamic monitoring of the Poyang Lake wetland by integrating Landsat and MODIS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Bin; Chen, Lifan; Huang, Bo; Michishita, Ryo; Xu, Bing

2018-05-01

The spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion models (STARFM) have limited practical applications, because they often enforce the invalid assumption that land cover change does not occur between prior/posterior and target dates. To deal with this challenge, we proposed a spatiotemporal adaptive fusion model for NDVI products (STAFFN), to better blend highly resolved spatial and temporal information from multiple sensors. Compared with existing spatiotemporal fusion models, the proposed model integrates an initial prediction into a hierarchical selection strategy of similar pixels, and can capture landscape changes very well. Experiments using spatial details and temporal abundance comparison among MODIS, Landsat, and fusion results show that the predicted data can accurately capture temporal changes while preserving fine-spatial-resolution details. Model comparison also shows that STAFFNs produce consistently lower biases than STARFMs and the flexible spatiotemporal data fusion models (FSDAFs). A synthetic NDVI product (342 scenes in total) was produced with STAFFNs having a 16-day revisit frequency at 30-m spatial resolution from 2000 to 2014. With this product, we further provided a 15-year spatiotemporal change monitoring map of the Poyang Lake wetland. Results show that the water area in the dry season tended to lose 38.3 km2 yr-1 in coverage over the past 15 years, decreasing by 18.24% of the lake area between 2001 and 2014. The wetland vegetation group tended to increase in coverage, increasing by 10.08% of the lake area in the past 15 years. Our study indicates the STAFFN model can be reasonably applied in monitoring wetland dynamics, and can be easily adapted for the use with other ecosystems.

GraphTeams: a method for discovering spatial gene clusters in Hi-C sequencing data.

PubMed

Schulz, Tizian; Stoye, Jens; Doerr, Daniel

2018-05-08

Hi-C sequencing offers novel, cost-effective means to study the spatial conformation of chromosomes. We use data obtained from Hi-C experiments to provide new evidence for the existence of spatial gene clusters. These are sets of genes with associated functionality that exhibit close proximity to each other in the spatial conformation of chromosomes across several related species. We present the first gene cluster model capable of handling spatial data. Our model generalizes a popular computational model for gene cluster prediction, called δ-teams, from sequences to graphs. Following previous lines of research, we subsequently extend our model to allow for several vertices being associated with the same label. The model, called δ-teams with families, is particular suitable for our application as it enables handling of gene duplicates. We develop algorithmic solutions for both models. We implemented the algorithm for discovering δ-teams with families and integrated it into a fully automated workflow for discovering gene clusters in Hi-C data, called GraphTeams. We applied it to human and mouse data to find intra- and interchromosomal gene cluster candidates. The results include intrachromosomal clusters that seem to exhibit a closer proximity in space than on their chromosomal DNA sequence. We further discovered interchromosomal gene clusters that contain genes from different chromosomes within the human genome, but are located on a single chromosome in mouse. By identifying δ-teams with families, we provide a flexible model to discover gene cluster candidates in Hi-C data. Our analysis of Hi-C data from human and mouse reveals several known gene clusters (thus validating our approach), but also few sparsely studied or possibly unknown gene cluster candidates that could be the source of further experimental investigations.

Social and spatial processes associated with childhood diarrheal disease in Matlab, Bangladesh.

PubMed

Perez-Heydrich, Carolina; Furgurson, Jill M; Giebultowicz, Sophia; Winston, Jennifer J; Yunus, Mohammad; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Emch, Michael

2013-01-01

We develop novel methods for conceptualizing geographic space and social networks to evaluate their respective and combined contributions to childhood diarrheal incidence. After defining maternal networks according to direct familial linkages between females, and road networks using satellite imagery of the study area, we use a spatial econometrics model to evaluate the significance of correlation terms relating childhood diarrheal incidence to the incidence observed within respective networks. Disease was significantly clustered within road networks across time, but only inconsistently correlated within maternal networks. These methods could be widely applied to systems in which both social and spatial processes jointly influence health outcomes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of skeletal movement of human locomotion from body surface shapes using dynamic spatial video camera (DSVC) and 4D human model.

PubMed

Saito, Toshikuni; Suzuki, Naoki; Hattori, Asaki; Suzuki, Shigeyuki; Hayashibe, Mitsuhiro; Otake, Yoshito

2006-01-01

We have been developing a DSVC (Dynamic Spatial Video Camera) system to measure and observe human locomotion quantitatively and freely. A 4D (four-dimensional) human model with detailed skeletal structure, joint, muscle, and motor functionality has been built. The purpose of our research was to estimate skeletal movements from body surface shapes using DSVC and the 4D human model. For this purpose, we constructed a body surface model of a subject and resized the standard 4D human model to match with geometrical features of the subject's body surface model. Software that integrates the DSVC system and the 4D human model, and allows dynamic skeletal state analysis from body surface movement data was also developed. We practically applied the developed system in dynamic skeletal state analysis of a lower limb in motion and were able to visualize the motion using geometrically resized standard 4D human model.

Spatial modeling of infrastructure resilience to the natural disasters using baseline resilience indicators for communities (BRIC) - Case study: 5 districts/cities of Bandung Basin area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nafishoh, Qoriatun; Riqqi, Akhmad; Meilano, Irwan

2017-07-01

The Bandung Basin area has highly susceptible to the natural disasters. Therefore, resilience measurement is useful to find out the capacity of an area in the facing of a natural disaster. Natural disaster resilience can be measured using BRIC (Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) model. This model comprises several indicators; includes social, economic, community, institution, infrastructure, and the environment. This research tries to measure resilience to the natural disasters with still focusing on infrastructure resilience measurement by spatial modeling and analyzed the dominant driving factor that contributes to this resilience trend. We generated a spatial modeling by applying a spatial analysis to the infrastructure objects. The infrastructure objects consist of the road, school, and health facilities. Those objects will be given some radius levels that indicate the resilience level by using buffer processing. An area closest to those objects will have high resilience and contrarily. Our result showed that almost all city areas (Bandung and Cimahi City) have high resilience because they have many infrastructure objects. But contrarily with the district areas which are still contained many patterns of low and moderate resilience level. The dominant driving factor of infrastructure resilience in this research area is a road. The areas which are closest to the road have high resilience and farther away from the road will have low resilience.

Uncertainties and implications of applying aggregated data for spatial modelling of atmospheric ammonia emissions.

PubMed

Hellsten, S; Dragosits, U; Place, C J; Dore, A J; Tang, Y S; Sutton, M A

2018-05-09

Ammonia emissions vary greatly at a local scale, and effects (eutrophication, acidification) occur primarily close to sources. Therefore it is important that spatially distributed emission estimates are located as accurately as possible. The main source of ammonia emissions is agriculture, and therefore agricultural survey statistics are the most important input data to an ammonia emission inventory alongside per activity estimates of emission potential. In the UK, agricultural statistics are collected at farm level, but are aggregated to parish level, NUTS-3 level or regular grid resolution for distribution to users. In this study, the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP), associated with such amalgamation, is investigated in the context of assessing the spatial distribution of ammonia sources for emission inventories. England was used as a test area to study the effects of the MAUP. Agricultural survey data at farm level (point data) were obtained under license and amalgamated to different areal units or zones: regular 1-km, 5-km, 10-km grids and parish level, before they were imported into the emission model. The results of using the survey data at different levels of amalgamation were assessed to estimate the effects of the MAUP on the spatial inventory. The analysis showed that the size and shape of aggregation zones applied to the farm-level agricultural statistics strongly affect the location of the emissions estimated by the model. If the zones are too small, this may result in false emission "hot spots", i.e., artificially high emission values that are in reality not confined to the zone to which they are allocated. Conversely, if the zones are too large, detail may be lost and emissions smoothed out, which may give a false impression of the spatial patterns and magnitude of emissions in those zones. The results of the study indicate that the MAUP has a significant effect on the location and local magnitude of emissions in spatial inventories where amalgamated, zonal data are used. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A weakly-constrained data assimilation approach to address rainfall-runoff model structural inadequacy in streamflow prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Haksu; Seo, Dong-Jun; Noh, Seong Jin

2016-11-01

This paper presents a simple yet effective weakly-constrained (WC) data assimilation (DA) approach for hydrologic models which accounts for model structural inadequacies associated with rainfall-runoff transformation processes. Compared to the strongly-constrained (SC) DA, WC DA adjusts the control variables less while producing similarly or more accurate analysis. Hence the adjusted model states are dynamically more consistent with those of the base model. The inadequacy of a rainfall-runoff model was modeled as an additive error to runoff components prior to routing and penalized in the objective function. Two example modeling applications, distributed and lumped, were carried out to investigate the effects of the WC DA approach on DA results. For distributed modeling, the distributed Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model was applied to the TIFM7 Basin in Missouri, USA. For lumped modeling, the lumped SAC-SMA model was applied to nineteen basins in Texas. In both cases, the variational DA (VAR) technique was used to assimilate discharge data at the basin outlet. For distributed SAC-SMA, spatially homogeneous error modeling yielded updated states that are spatially much more similar to the a priori states, as quantified by Earth Mover's Distance (EMD), than spatially heterogeneous error modeling by up to ∼10 times. DA experiments using both lumped and distributed SAC-SMA modeling indicated that assimilating outlet flow using the WC approach generally produce smaller mean absolute difference as well as higher correlation between the a priori and the updated states than the SC approach, while producing similar or smaller root mean square error of streamflow analysis and prediction. Large differences were found in both lumped and distributed modeling cases between the updated and the a priori lower zone tension and primary free water contents for both WC and SC approaches, indicating possible model structural deficiency in describing low flows or evapotranspiration processes for the catchments studied. Also presented are the findings from this study and key issues relevant to WC DA approaches using hydrologic models.

Assessing the importance of rainfall uncertainty on hydrological models with different spatial and temporal scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nossent, Jiri; Pereira, Fernando; Bauwens, Willy

2015-04-01

Precipitation is one of the key inputs for hydrological models. As long as the values of the hydrological model parameters are fixed, a variation of the rainfall input is expected to induce a change in the model output. Given the increased awareness of uncertainty on rainfall records, it becomes more important to understand the impact of this input - output dynamic. Yet, modellers often still have the intention to mimic the observed flow, whatever the deviation of the employed records from the actual rainfall might be, by recklessly adapting the model parameter values. But is it actually possible to vary the model parameter values in such a way that a certain (observed) model output can be generated based on inaccurate rainfall inputs? Thus, how important is the rainfall uncertainty for the model output with respect to the model parameter importance? To address this question, we apply the Sobol' sensitivity analysis method to assess and compare the importance of the rainfall uncertainty and the model parameters on the output of the hydrological model. In order to be able to treat the regular model parameters and input uncertainty in the same way, and to allow a comparison of their influence, a possible approach is to represent the rainfall uncertainty by a parameter. To tackle the latter issue, we apply so called rainfall multipliers on hydrological independent storm events, as a probabilistic parameter representation of the possible rainfall variation. As available rainfall records are very often point measurements at a discrete time step (hourly, daily, monthly,…), they contain uncertainty due to a latent lack of spatial and temporal variability. The influence of the latter variability can also be different for hydrological models with different spatial and temporal scale. Therefore, we perform the sensitivity analyses on a semi-distributed model (SWAT) and a lumped model (NAM). The assessment and comparison of the importance of the rainfall uncertainty and the model parameters is achieved by considering different scenarios for the included parameters and the state of the models.