Spatially differentiated trends in urbanization, agricultural land abandonment and reclamation, and woodland recovery in Northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chao; Gao, Qiong; Wang, Xian; Yu, Mei

2016-11-01

Uncovering magnitude, trend, and spatial pattern of land cover/land use changes (LCLUC) is crucial for understanding mechanisms of LCLUC and assisting land use planning and conservation. China has been undergoing unprecedented economic growth, massive rural-to-urban migration, and large-scale policy-driven ecological restoration, and therefore encountering enormous LCLUC in recent decades. However, comprehensive understandings of spatiotemporal LCLUC dynamics and underlying mechanisms are still lacking. Based on classification of annual LCLU maps from MODIS satellite imagery, we proposed a land change detection method to capture significant land change hotspots over Northern China during 2001-2013, and further analyzed temporal trends and spatial patterns of LCLUC. We found rapid decline of agricultural land near urban was predominantly caused by urban expansion. The process was especially strong in North China Plain with 14,057 km2 of urban gain and -21,017 km2 of agricultural land loss. To offset the loss of agricultural land, Northeast China Plain and Xinjiang were reclaimed. Substantial recovery of forests (49,908 km2) and closed shrubland (60,854 km2) occurred in mountainous regions due to abandoned infertile farmland, secondary succession, and governmental conservation policies. The spatial patterns and trends of LCLUC in Northern China provide information to support effective environmental policies towards sustainable development.

Effects of sampling interval on spatial patterns and statistics of watershed nitrogen concentration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, S.-S.D.; Usery, E.L.; Finn, M.P.; Bosch, D.D.

2009-01-01

This study investigates how spatial patterns and statistics of a 30 m resolution, model-simulated, watershed nitrogen concentration surface change with sampling intervals from 30 m to 600 m for every 30 m increase for the Little River Watershed (Georgia, USA). The results indicate that the mean, standard deviation, and variogram sills do not have consistent trends with increasing sampling intervals, whereas the variogram ranges remain constant. A sampling interval smaller than or equal to 90 m is necessary to build a representative variogram. The interpolation accuracy, clustering level, and total hot spot areas show decreasing trends approximating a logarithmic function. The trends correspond to the nitrogen variogram and start to level at a sampling interval of 360 m, which is therefore regarded as a critical spatial scale of the Little River Watershed. Copyright ?? 2009 by Bellwether Publishing, Ltd. All right reserved.

Modeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bled, Florent; Sauer, John R.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Doherty, Paul; Royle, J. Andy

2013-01-01

Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

Observed and Modeled Trends in Southern Ocean Sea Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2003-01-01

Conceptual models and global climate model (GCM) simulations have both indicated the likelihood of an enhanced sensitivity to climate change in the polar regions, derived from the positive feedbacks brought about by the polar abundance of snow and ice surfaces. Some models further indicate that the changes in the polar regions can have a significant impact globally. For instance, 37% of the temperature sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 in simulations with the GCM of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is attributable exclusively to inclusion of sea ice variations in the model calculations. Both sea ice thickness and sea ice extent decrease markedly in the doubled CO, case, thereby allowing the ice feedbacks to occur. Stand-alone sea ice models have shown Southern Ocean hemispherically averaged winter ice-edge retreats of 1.4 deg latitude for each 1 K increase in atmospheric temperatures. Observations, however, show a much more varied Southern Ocean ice cover, both spatially and temporally, than many of the modeled expectations. In fact, the satellite passive-microwave record of Southern Ocean sea ice since late 1978 has revealed overall increases rather than decreases in ice extents, with ice extent trends on the order of 11,000 sq km/year. When broken down spatially, the positive trends are strongest in the Ross Sea, while the trends are negative in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas. Greater spatial detail can be obtained by examining trends in the length of the sea ice season, and those trends show a coherent picture of shortening sea ice seasons throughout almost the entire Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula and in the far western Weddell Sea immediately to the east of the Peninsula, with lengthening sea ice seasons around much of the rest of the continent. This pattern corresponds well with the spatial pattern of temperature trends, as the Peninsula region is the one region in the Antarctic with a strong record of temperature increases. Still, although the patterns of the temperature and ice changes match fairly well, there is a substantial ways to go before these patterns are understood (and can be modeled) in the full context of global change.

Attribution of the Regional Patterns of North American Climate Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoerling, M.; Kumar, A.; Karoly, D.; Rind, D.; Hegerl, G.; Eischeid, J.

2007-12-01

North American trends in surface temperature and precipitation during 1951-2006 exhibit large spatial and seasonal variations. We seek to explain these by synthesizing new information based on existing model simulations of climate and its forcing, and based on modern reanalyses that describe past and current conditions within the free atmosphere. The presentation focuses on current capabilities to explain the spatial variations and seasonal differences in North American climate trends. It will address whether various heterogeneities in space and time can be accounted for by the climate system's sensitivity to time evolving anthropogenic forcing, and examines the influences of non-anthropogenic processes. New findings are presented that indicate anthropogenic forcing alone was unlikely the cause for key regional and seasonal patterns of change, including the absence of summertime warming over the Great Plains of the United States, and the absence of warming during both winter and summer over the southern United States. Key regional features are instead attributed to trends in the principal patterns of atmospheric flow that affect North American climate. It is demonstrated that observed variations in global sea surface temperatures have significantly influenced these patterns of atmospheric flow.

Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

Characterizing uncertainties in recent trends of global terrestrial net primary production through ensemble modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Ganguly, S.; Votava, P.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R. B.

2010-12-01

Large uncertainties exist in our understanding of the trends and variability in global net primary production (NPP) and its controls. This study attempts to address this question through a multi-model ensemble experiment. In particular, we drive ecosystem models including CASA, LPJ, Biome-BGC, TOPS-BGC, and BEAMS with a long-term climate dataset (i.e., CRU-NCEP) to estimate global NPP from 1901 to 2009 at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree. We calculate the trends of simulated NPP during different time periods and test their sensitivities to climate variables of solar radiation, air temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and atmospheric CO2 levels. The results indicate a large diversity among the simulated NPP trends over the past 50 years, ranging from nearly no trend to an increasing trend of ~0.1 PgC/yr. Spatial patterns of the NPP generally show positive trends in boreal forests, induced mainly by increasing temperatures in these regions; they also show negative trends in the tropics, although the spatial patterns are more diverse. These diverse trends result from different climatic sensitivities of NPP among the tested models. Depending the ecological processes (e.g., photosynthesis or respiration) a model emphasizes, it can be more or less responsive to changes in solar radiation, temperatures, water, or atmospheric CO2 levels. Overall, these results highlight the limit of current ecosystem models in simulating NPP, which cannot be easily observed. They suggest that the traditional single-model approach is not ideal for characterizing trends and variability in global carbon cycling.

Long-term trends in the structure of eastern Adriatic littoral fish assemblages: Consequences for fisheries management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stagličić, N.; Matić-Skoko, S.; Pallaoro, A.; Grgičević, R.; Kraljević, M.; Tutman, P.; Dragičević, B.; Dulčić, J.

2011-09-01

Long-term interannual changes in abundance, biomass, diversity and structure of littoral fish assemblages were examined between 1993 and 2009 by experimental trammel net fishing up to six times per year, within the warm period - May to September, at multiple areas along the eastern Adriatic coast with the aim of testing for the consistency of patterns of change across a large spatial scale (˜600 km). The results revealed spatially consistent increasing trends of total fish abundance and biomass growing at an average rate of 15 and 14% per year, respectively. Of the diversity indices analysed, the same pattern of variability was observed for Shannon diversity, while Pielou evenness and average taxonomic distinctness measures Δ ∗ and Δ + showed spatial variability with no obvious temporal trends. Multivariate fish assemblage structure underwent a directional change displaying a similar pattern through time for all the areas. The structural change in fish assemblages generally involved most of the species present in trammel net catches. A large pool of fish species responsible for producing the temporal pattern of assemblage change was relatively different in each of the areas reflecting a large geographic range covered by the study. An analysis of 4 fish species ( Symphodus tinca, Pagellus erythrinus, Mullus surmuletus, Scorpaena porcus) common to each of the study areas as the ones driving the temporal change indicated that there were clear increasing trends of their mean catches across the years at all the study areas. A common pattern among time trajectories across the spatial scale studied implies that the factor affecting the littoral fish assemblages is not localised but regional in nature. As an underlying factor having the potential to induce such widespread and consistent improvements in littoral fish assemblages, a more restrictive artisanal fishery management that has progressively been put in place during the study period, is suggested and discussed.

Geographical Gradients in Argentinean Terrestrial Mammal Species Richness and Their Environmental Correlates

PubMed Central

Márquez, Ana L.; Real, Raimundo; Kin, Marta S.; Guerrero, José Carlos; Galván, Betina; Barbosa, A. Márcia; Olivero, Jesús; Palomo, L. Javier; Vargas, J. Mario; Justo, Enrique

2012-01-01

We analysed the main geographical trends of terrestrial mammal species richness (SR) in Argentina, assessing how broad-scale environmental variation (defined by climatic and topographic variables) and the spatial form of the country (defined by spatial filters based on spatial eigenvector mapping (SEVM)) influence the kinds and the numbers of mammal species along these geographical trends. We also evaluated if there are pure geographical trends not accounted for by the environmental or spatial factors. The environmental variables and spatial filters that simultaneously correlated with the geographical variables and SR were considered potential causes of the geographic trends. We performed partial correlations between SR and the geographical variables, maintaining the selected explanatory variables statistically constant, to determine if SR was fully explained by them or if a significant residual geographic pattern remained. All groups and subgroups presented a latitudinal gradient not attributable to the spatial form of the country. Most of these trends were not explained by climate. We used a variation partitioning procedure to quantify the pure geographic trend (PGT) that remained unaccounted for. The PGT was larger for latitudinal than for longitudinal gradients. This suggests that historical or purely geographical causes may also be relevant drivers of these geographical gradients in mammal diversity. PMID:23028254

Hydrologic budget and conditions of Permian, Pennsylvanian, and Mississippian aquifers in the Appalachian Plateaus physiographic province

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCoy, Kurt J.; Yager, Richard M.; Nelms, David L.; Ladd, David E.; Monti,, Jack; Kozar, Mark D.

2015-08-13

A subset of 77 index streamgages, defined as having 60 or more years of complete record between the years 1930 and 2011 with no more than 20 percent missing data, was selected to show spatial patterns of change in the water budget. Data from the index streamgages showed that the overall trends in base flow are dependent upon the period of evaluation. Long-term (1930–2011) increases in base flow were observed throughout the study area. For two shorter periods (1930–1969 and 1970–2011) trends in base flow were largely negative. In general, spatial patterns of change in streamflow, base flow, and runoff were mixed but generally consistent with prevailing climate patterns and land-use changes.

Pattern transitions in spatial epidemics: Mechanisms and emergent properties.

PubMed

Sun, Gui-Quan; Jusup, Marko; Jin, Zhen; Wang, Yi; Wang, Zhen

2016-12-01

Infectious diseases are a threat to human health and a hindrance to societal development. Consequently, the spread of diseases in both time and space has been widely studied, revealing the different types of spatial patterns. Transitions between patterns are an emergent property in spatial epidemics that can serve as a potential trend indicator of disease spread. Despite the usefulness of such an indicator, attempts to systematize the topic of pattern transitions have been few and far between. We present a mini-review on pattern transitions in spatial epidemics, describing the types of transitions and their underlying mechanisms. We show that pattern transitions relate to the complexity of spatial epidemics by, for example, being accompanied with phenomena such as coherence resonance and cyclic evolution. The results presented herein provide valuable insights into disease prevention and control, and may even be applicable outside epidemiology, including other branches of medical science, ecology, quantitative finance, and elsewhere. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickramagamage, P.

2016-08-01

This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.

[Spatial-temporal pattern and obstacle factors of cultivated land ecological security in major grain producing areas of northeast China: a case study in Jilin Province].

PubMed

Zhao, Hong-Bo; Ma, Yan-Ji

2014-02-01

According to the cultivated land ecological security in major grain production areas of Northeast China, this paper selected 48 counties of Jilin Province as the research object. Based on the PSR-EES conceptual framework model, an evaluation index system of cultivated land ecological security was built. By using the improved TOPSIS, Markov chains, GIS spatial analysis and obstacle degree models, the spatial-temporal pattern of cultivated land ecological security and the obstacle factors were analyzed from 1995 to 2011 in Jilin Province. The results indicated that, the composite index of cultivated land ecological security appeared in a rising trend in Jilin Province from 1995 to 2011, and the cultivated land ecological security level changed from being sensitive to being general. There was a pattern of 'Club Convergence' in cultivated land ecological security level in each county and the spatial discrepancy tended to become larger. The 'Polarization' trend of cultivated land ecological security level was obvious. The distributions of sensitive level and critical security level with ribbon patterns tended to be dispersed, the general security level and relative security levels concentrated, and the distributions of security level scattered. The unstable trend of cultivated land ecological security level was more and more obvious. The main obstacle factors that affected the cultivated land ecological security level in Jilin Province were rural net income per capita, economic density, the proportion of environmental protection investment in GDP, degree of machinery cultivation and the comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid wastes.

Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: A Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodhouse, T.J.; Irvine, K.M.; Vierling, K.T.; Vierling, L.A.

2011-01-01

Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas]) population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones") with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity-a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

Recent growth of conifer species of western North America: Assessing spatial patterns of radial growth trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenzie, D.; Hessl, Amy E.; Peterson, D.L.

2001-01-01

We explored spatial patterns of low-frequency variability in radial tree growth among western North American conifer species and identified predictors of the variability in these patterns. Using 185 sites from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank, each of which contained 10a??60 raw ring-width series, we rebuilt two chronologies for each site, using two conservative methods designed to retain any low-frequency variability associated with recent environmental change. We used factor analysis to identify regional low-frequency patterns in site chronologies and estimated the slope of the growth trend since 1850 at each site from a combination of linear regression and time-series techniques. This slope was the response variable in a regression-tree model to predict the effects of environmental gradients and species-level differences on growth trends. Growth patterns at 27 sites from the American Southwest were consistent with quasi-periodic patterns of drought. Either 12 or 32 of the 185 sites demonstrated patterns of increasing growth between 1850 and 1980 A.D., depending on the standardization technique used. Pronounced growth increases were associated with high-elevation sites (above 3000 m) and high-latitude sites in maritime climates. Future research focused on these high-elevation and high-latitude sites should address the precise mechanisms responsible for increased 20th century growth.

Elkhorn Slough: Detecting Eutrophication through Geospatial Modeling Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caraballo Álvarez, I. O.; Childs, A.; Jurich, K.

2016-12-01

Elkhorn Slough in Monterey, California, has experienced substantial nutrient loading and eutrophication over the past 21 years as a result of fertilizer-rich runoff from nearby agricultural fields. This study seeks to identify and track spatial patterns of eutrophication hotspots and the correlation to land use changes, possible nutrient sources, and general climatic trends using remotely sensed and in situ data. Threats of rising sea level, subsiding marshes, and increased eutrophication hotspots demonstrate the necessity to analyze the effects of increasing nutrient loads, relative sea level changes, and sedimentation within Elkhorn Slough. The Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model integrates specified inputs to assess nutrient and sediment loading and their sources. TerrSet's Land Change Modeler forecasts the future potential of land change transitions for various land cover classes around the slough as a result of nutrient loading, eutrophication, and increased sedimentation. TerrSet's Earth Trends Modeler provides a comprehensive analysis of image time series to rapidly assess long term eutrophication trends and detect spatial patterns of known hotspots. Results from this study will inform future coastal management practices and provide greater spatial and temporal insight into Elkhorn Slough eutrophication dynamics.

Trends in Streamflow and Nutrient and Suspended-Sediment Concentrations and Loads in the Upper Mississippi, Ohio, Red, and Great Lakes River Basins, 1975-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lorenz, David L.; Robertson, Dale M.; Hall, David W.; Saad, David A.

2009-01-01

Many actions have been taken to reduce nutrient and suspended-sediment concentrations and the amount of nutrients and sediment transported in streams as a result of the Clean Water Act and subsequent regulations. This report assesses how nutrient and suspended-sediment concentrations and loads in selected streams have changed during recent years to determine if these actions have been successful. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in concentrations and trends in loads from 1993 to 2004 were computed for total nitrogen, dissolved ammonia, total organic nitrogen plus ammonia, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, dissolved phosphorus, total suspended material (total suspended solids or suspended sediment), and total suspended sediment for 49 sites in the Upper Mississippi, Ohio, Red, and Great Lakes Basins. Changes in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total suspended-material loads were examined from 1975 to 2003 at six sites to provide a longer term context for the data examined from 1993 to 2004. Flow-adjusted trends in total nitrogen concentrations at 19 of 24 sites showed tendency toward increasing concentrations, and overall trends in total nitrogen concentrations at 16 of the 24 sites showed a general tendency toward increasing concentrations. The trends in these flow-adjusted total nitrogen concentrations are related to the changes in fertilizer nitrogen applications. Flow-adjusted trends in dissolved ammonia concentrations from 1993 to 2004 showed a widespread tendency toward decreasing concentrations. The widespread, downward trends in dissolved ammonia concentrations indicate that some of the ammonia reduction goals of the Clean Water Act are being met. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in total organic plus ammonia nitrogen concentrations from 1993 to 2004 did not show a distinct spatial pattern. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in dissolved nitrite plus nitrate concentrations from 1993 to 2004 also did not show a distinct spatial pattern. Flow-adjusted trends in total phosphorus concentrations were upward at 24 of 40 sites. Overall trends in total phosphorus concentrations were mixed and showed no spatial pattern. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in dissolved phosphorus concentrations were consistently downward at all of the sites in the eastern part of the basins studied. The reduction in phosphorus fertilizer use and manure production east of the Mississippi River could explain most of the observed trends in dissolved phosphorus. Flow-adjusted trends in total suspended-material concentrations showed distinct spatial patterns of increasing tendencies throughout the western part of the basins studied and in Illinois and decreasing concentrations throughout most of Wisconsin, Iowa, and in the eastern part of the basins studied. Flow-adjusted trends in total phosphorus were strongly related to the flow-adjusted trends in suspended materials. The trends in the flow-adjusted suspended-sediment concentrations from 1993 to 2004 resembled those for suspended materials. The long-term, nonmonotonic trends in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended-material loads for 1975 to 2003 were described by local regression, LOESS, smoothing for six sites. The statistical significance of those trends cannot be determined; however, the long-term changes found for annual streamflow and load data indicate that the monotonic trends from 1993 to 2004 should not be extrapolated backward in time.

Thirty Years of Cloud Cover Patterns from Satellite Data: Fog in California's Central Valley and Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waller, E.; Baldocchi, D. D.

2012-12-01

In an effort to assess long term trends in winter fog in the Central Valley of California, custom maps of daily cloud cover from an approximately 30 year record of AVHRR (1981-1999) and MODIS (2000-2012) satellite data were generated. Spatial rules were then used to differentiate between fog and general cloud cover. Differences among the sensors (e.g., spectral content, spatial resolution, overpass time) presented problems of consistency, but concurrent climate station data were used to resolve systematic differences in products, and to confirm long term trends. The frequency and extent of Central Valley ("Tule") fog appear to have some periodic oscillation, but also appear to be on the decline, especially in the Sacramento Valley and in the "shoulder" months of November and February. These results may have strong implications for growers of fruit and nut trees in the Central Valley dependent on winter chill hours that are augmented by the foggy daytime conditions. Conclusions about long term trends in fog are limited to daytime patterns, as results are primarily derived from reflectance-based products. Similar analyses of daytime cloud cover are performed on other areas of concern, such as the coastal fog belt of California. Large area and long term patterns here appear to have periodic oscillation similar to that for the Central Valley. However, the relatively coarse spatial resolution of the AVHRR LTDR (Long Term Data Record) data (~5-km) may be limiting for fine-scale analysis of trends.

Exploratory Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Myocardial Infarction Hospitalizations in Calgary, Canada

PubMed Central

Liu, Xiaoxiao; Bertazzon, Stefania

2017-01-01

Spatial and temporal analyses are critical to understand the pattern of myocardial infarction (MI) hospitalizations over space and time, and to identify their underlying determinants. In this paper, we analyze MI hospitalizations in Calgary from 2004 to 2013, stratified by age and gender. First, a seasonal trend decomposition analyzes the seasonality; then a linear regression models the trend component. Moran’s I and hot spot analyses explore the spatial pattern. Though exploratory, results show that most age and gender groups feature a statistically significant decline over the 10 years, consistent with previous studies in Canada. Decline rates vary across ages and genders, with the slowest decline observed for younger males. Each gender exhibits a seasonal pattern with peaks in both winter and summer. Spatially, MI hot spots are identified in older communities, and in socioeconomically and environmentally disadvantaged communities. In the older communities, higher MI rates appear to be more highly associated with demographics. Conversely, worse air quality appears to be locally associated with higher MI incidence in younger age groups. The study helps identify areas of concern, where MI hot spots are identified for younger age groups, suggesting the need for localized public health policies to target local risk factors. PMID:29232910

Spatiotemporal patterns of drought at various time scales in Shandong Province of Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Depeng; Cai, Siyang; Xu, Zongxue; Li, Fulin; Sun, Wenchao; Yang, Xiaojing; Kan, Guangyuan; Liu, Pin

2018-01-01

The temporal variations and spatial patterns of drought in Shandong Province of Eastern China were investigated by calculating the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-month time scales. Monthly precipitation and air temperature time series during the period 1960-2012 were collected at 23 meteorological stations uniformly distributed over the region. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the temporal trends of precipitation, air temperature, and the SPEI drought index. S-mode principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to identify the spatial patterns of drought. The results showed that an insignificant decreasing trend in annual total precipitation was detected at most stations, a significant increase of annual average air temperature occurred at all the 23 stations, and a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI was mainly detected at the coastal stations for all the time scales. The frequency of occurrence of extreme and severe drought at different time scales generally increased with decades; higher frequency and larger affected area of extreme and severe droughts occurred as the time scale increased, especially for the northwest of Shandong Province and Jiaodong peninsular. The spatial pattern of drought for SPEI-1 contains three regions: eastern Jiaodong Peninsular and northwestern and southern Shandong. As the time scale increased to 3, 6, and 12 months, the order of the three regions was transformed into another as northwestern Shandong, eastern Jiaodong Peninsular, and southern Shandong. For SPEI-24, the location identified by REOF1 was slightly shifted from northwestern Shandong to western Shandong, and REOF2 and REOF3 identified another two weak patterns in the south edge and north edge of Jiaodong Peninsular, respectively. The potential causes of drought and the impact of drought on agriculture in the study area have also been discussed. The temporal variations and spatial patterns of drought obtained in this study provide valuable information for water resources planning and drought disaster prevention and mitigation in Eastern China.

Variations in extreme precipitation on the Loess Plateau using a high-resolution dataset and their linkages with atmospheric circulation indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Guangju; Zhai, Jianqing; Tian, Peng; Zhang, Limei; Mu, Xingmin; An, Zhengfeng; Han, Mengwei

2017-08-01

Assessing regional patterns and trends in extreme precipitation is crucial for facilitating flood control and drought adaptation because extreme climate events have more damaging impacts on society and ecosystems than simple shifts in the mean values. In this study, we employed daily precipitation data from 231 climate stations spanning 1961 to 2014 to explore the changes in precipitation extremes on the Loess Plateau, China. Nine of the 12 extreme precipitation indices suggested decreasing trends, and only the annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and R10 declined significantly: - 0.69 mm/a and - 0.023 days/a at the 95% confidence level. The spatial patterns in all of the extreme precipitation indices indicated mixed trends on the Loess Plateau, with decreasing trends in the precipitation extremes at the majority of the stations examined in the Fen-Wei River valley and high-plain plateau. Most of extreme precipitation indices suggested apparent regional differences, whereas R25 and R20 had spatially similar patterns on the Loess Plateau, with many stations revealing no trends. In addition, we found a potential decreasing trend in rainfall amounts and rainy days and increasing trends in rainfall intensities and storm frequencies in some regions due to increasing precipitation events in recent years. The relationships between extreme rainfall events and atmospheric circulation indices suggest that the weakening trend in the East Asia summer monsoon has limited the northward extension of the rainfall belt to northern China, thereby leading to a decrease in rainfall on the Loess Plateau.

Trends in 1970-2010 southern California surface maximum temperatures: extremes and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghebreegziabher, Amanuel T.

Daily maximum temperatures from 1970-2010 were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for 28 South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) Cooperative Network (COOP) sites. Analyses were carried out on the entire data set, as well as on the 1970-1974 and 2006-2010 sub-periods, including construction of spatial distributions and time-series trends of both summer-average and annual-maximum values and of the frequency of two and four consecutive "daytime" heat wave events. Spatial patterns of average and extreme values showed three areas consistent with climatological SoCAB flow patterns: cold coastal, warm inland low-elevation, and cool further-inland mountain top. Difference (2006-2010 minus 1970-1974) distributions of both average and extreme-value trends were consistent with the shorter period (1970-2005) study of previous study, as they showed the expected inland regional warming and a "reverse-reaction" cooling in low elevation coastal and inland areas open to increasing sea breeze flows. Annual-extreme trends generally showed cooling at sites below 600 m and warming at higher elevations. As the warming trends of the extremes were larger than those of the averages, regional warming thus impacts extremes more than averages. Spatial distributions of hot-day frequencies showed expected maximum at inland low-elevation sites. Regional warming again thus induced increases at both elevated-coastal areas, but low-elevation areas showed reverse-reaction decreases.

Mapping Patterns and Trends in the Spatial Availability of Alcohol Using Low-Level Geographic Data: A Case Study in England 2003-2013.

PubMed

Angus, Colin; Holmes, John; Maheswaran, Ravi; Green, Mark A; Meier, Petra; Brennan, Alan

2017-04-12

Much literature examines the relationship between the spatial availability of alcohol and alcohol-related harm. This study aims to address an important gap in this evidence by using detailed outlet data to examine recent temporal trends in the sociodemographic distribution of spatial availability for different types of alcohol outlet in England. Descriptive analysis of measures of alcohol outlet density and proximity using extremely high resolution market research data stratified by outlet type and quintiles of area-level deprivation from 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2013 was undertaken and hierarchical linear growth models fitted to explore the significance of socioeconomic differences. We find that overall availability of alcohol changed very little from 2003 to 2013 (density +1.6%), but this conceals conflicting trends by outlet type and area-level deprivation. Mean on-trade density has decreased substantially (-2.2 outlets within 1 km (Inter-Quartile Range (IQR) -3-0), although access to restaurants has increased (+1.0 outlets (IQR 0-1)), while off-trade access has risen substantially (+2.4 outlets (IQR 0-3)). Availability is highest in the most deprived areas ( p < 0.0001) although these areas have also seen the greatest falls in on-trade outlet availability ( p < 0.0001). This study underlines the importance of using detailed, low-level geographic data to understand patterns and trends in the spatial availability of alcohol. There are significant variations in these trends by outlet type and deprivation level which may have important implications for health inequalities and public health policy.

Mapping Patterns and Trends in the Spatial Availability of Alcohol Using Low-Level Geographic Data: A Case Study in England 2003–2013

PubMed Central

Angus, Colin; Holmes, John; Maheswaran, Ravi; Green, Mark A.; Meier, Petra; Brennan, Alan

2017-01-01

Much literature examines the relationship between the spatial availability of alcohol and alcohol-related harm. This study aims to address an important gap in this evidence by using detailed outlet data to examine recent temporal trends in the sociodemographic distribution of spatial availability for different types of alcohol outlet in England. Descriptive analysis of measures of alcohol outlet density and proximity using extremely high resolution market research data stratified by outlet type and quintiles of area-level deprivation from 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2013 was undertaken and hierarchical linear growth models fitted to explore the significance of socioeconomic differences. We find that overall availability of alcohol changed very little from 2003 to 2013 (density +1.6%), but this conceals conflicting trends by outlet type and area-level deprivation. Mean on-trade density has decreased substantially (−2.2 outlets within 1 km (Inter-Quartile Range (IQR) −3–0), although access to restaurants has increased (+1.0 outlets (IQR 0–1)), while off-trade access has risen substantially (+2.4 outlets (IQR 0–3)). Availability is highest in the most deprived areas (p < 0.0001) although these areas have also seen the greatest falls in on-trade outlet availability (p < 0.0001). This study underlines the importance of using detailed, low-level geographic data to understand patterns and trends in the spatial availability of alcohol. There are significant variations in these trends by outlet type and deprivation level which may have important implications for health inequalities and public health policy. PMID:28417941

Temporal trends and spatial patterns in nutrient export along the Mississippi River and its Tributaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, B.; Li, L.

2017-12-01

The Mississippi River, the largest river in the U. S., exports excessive nutrients from the land to the sea, causing the problem of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. In this research, we examined nutrient export along the Mississippi River and its tributaries to understand its trends and patterns and to identify the major factors contributing to these trends. We examined nutrient data from 1950 - 2017 for four sites along the Mississippi River and four tributary sites from the U. S. Geological Survey. The species included: total nitrogen, organic nitrogen, ammonia, nitrate, orthophosphate, and phosphorous. We analyzed the power law relationship of concentration and discharge, for which the export of nutrient species exhibited several trends. Both nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) species exhibited mostly chemodynamic behavior. This is in contrast to previous observations in smaller agricultural land where N and P export was mostly chemostatic with no significant change in concentration as discharge varies, suggesting possible scaling effects at different spatial scales. We also compared the average annual concentration over time at each site. The N concentration decreased from upstream to downstream, likely due to greater agricultural activities in the upstream Mississippi river and possible denitrification along the river. The N concentration also increased with time. The P species, however, fluctuated from site to site with no clear spatial patterns, but consistently exhibited higher concentrations at upstream sites with greater agricultural activities. The P species also fluctuated over time, likely due to patterns in discharge and agricultural activities. The results of this research can be further explored by calculating the total export of nutrients into the Gulf of Mexico to determine limits and drivers of nutrient export for better water management, thus helping prevent hypoxia and eutrophication within the Mississippi River basin.

North Atlantic cyclones; trends, impacts and links to large-scale variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigo, R. M.; Trigo, I. F.; Ramos, A. M.; Paredes, D.; Garcia-Herrera, R.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Valente, M. A.

2009-04-01

Based on the cyclone detection and tracking algorithm previously developed (Trigo, 2006) we have assessed the inter-annual variability and cyclone frequency trends between 1960 and 2000 for the Euro-Atlantic sector using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 Surface Level Pressure. Additionally, trends for the u and v wind speed components are also computed at the monthly and seasonal scales, using the same dataset. All cyclone and wind speed trend maps were computed with the corresponding statistical significance field. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind speed trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends of the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (ONDJFM), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s per year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for the JFM months are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of 50°N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5cm/year just north of Scotland). Using precipitation data from ECMWF reanalyses and a CRU high resolution dataset we show the impact of these trends in cyclone frequencies upon the corresponding precipitation trends in the influenced areas. It is also shown that these changes are partially linked to major shifts on the indices of large-scale patterns modes, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian Patterns (SCAN). Trigo, I. F. 2006: Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm-Tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses. Clim. Dyn. DOI 10.1007/s00382-005-0065-9.

Geo-spatial analysis of temporal trends of temperature and its extremes over India using daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data of 1969-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Abhishek; Seshasai, M. V. R.; Rao, S. V. C. Kameswara; Dadhwal, V. K.

2017-10-01

Daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data (1969-2005) were used to detect spatial patterns of temporal trends of maximum and minimum temperature (monthly and seasonal), growing degree days (GDDs) over the crop-growing season ( kharif, rabi, and zaid) and annual frequencies of temperature extremes over India. The direction and magnitude of trends, at each grid level, were estimated using the Mann-Kendall statistics ( α = 0.05) and further assessed at the homogeneous temperature regions using a field significance test ( α=0.05). General warming trends were observed over India with considerable variations in direction and magnitude over space and time. The spatial extent and the magnitude of the increasing trends of minimum temperature (0.02-0.04 °C year-1) were found to be higher than that of maximum temperature (0.01-0.02 °C year-1) during winter and pre-monsoon seasons. Significant negative trends of minimum temperature were found over eastern India during the monsoon months. Such trends were also observed for the maximum temperature over northern and eastern parts, particularly in the winter month of January. The general warming patterns also changed the thermal environment of the crop-growing season causing significant increase in GDDs during kharif and rabi seasons across India. The warming climate has also caused significant increase in occurrences of hot extremes such as hot days and hot nights, and significant decrease in cold extremes such as cold days and cold nights.

Migrant deaths at the Arizona-Mexico border: Spatial trends of a mass disaster.

PubMed

Giordano, Alberto; Spradley, M Katherine

2017-11-01

Geographic Information Science (GIScience) technology has been used to document, investigate, and predict patterns that may be of utility in both forensic academic research and applied practice. In examining spatial and temporal trends of the mass disaster that is occurring along the U.S.-Mexico border, other researchers have highlighted predictive patterns for search and recovery efforts as well as water station placement. The purpose of this paper is to use previously collected spatial data of migrant deaths from Arizona to address issues of data uncertainty and data accuracy that affect our understanding of this phenomenon, including local and federal policies that impact the U.S.-Mexico border. The main objective of our study was to explore how the locations of migrant deaths have varied over time. Our results confirm patterns such as a lack of relationship between Border Patrol apprehensions and migrant deaths, as well as highlight new patterns such as the increased positional accuracy of migrant deaths recorded closer to the border. This paper highlights the importance of using positionally accurate data to detect spatio-temporal trends in forensic investigations of mass disasters: without qualitative and quantitative information concerning the accuracy of the data collected, the reliability of the results obtained remains questionable. We conclude by providing a set of guidelines for standardizing the collection and documentation of migrant remains at the U.S.-Mexico border. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climatic Redistribution of Canada's Water Resources (CROCWR): An analysis of spatial and temporal hydrological trends and patterns in western Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bawden, A. J.; Burn, D. H.; Prowse, T. D.

2012-12-01

Climate variability and change can have profound impacts on the hydrologic regime of a watershed. These effects are likely to be especially severe in regions particularly sensitive to changes in climate, such as the Canadian north, or when there are other stresses on the hydrologic regime, such as may occur when there are large withdrawals from, or land-use changes within, a watershed. A recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stressed that future climate is likely to accelerate the hydrologic cycle and hence may affect water security in certain locations. For some regions, this will mean enhanced access to water resources, but because the effects will not be spatially uniform, other regions will experience reduced access. Understanding these patterns is critical for water managers and government agencies in western Canada - an area of highly contrasting hydroclimatic regimes and overlapping water-use and jurisdictional borders - as adapting to climate change may require reconsideration of inter-regional transfers and revised allocation of water resources to competing industrial sectors, including agriculture, hydroelectric production, and oil and gas. This research involves the detection and examination of spatial and temporal streamflow trends in western Canadian rivers as a response to changing climatic factors, including temperature, precipitation, snowmelt, and the synoptic patterns controlling these drivers. The study area, known as the CROCWR region, extends from the Pacific coast of British Columbia as far east as the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border and from the Canada-United States international border through a large portion of the Northwest Territories. This analysis examines hydrologic trends in monthly and annual streamflow for a collection of 34 hydrometric gauging stations believed to adequately represent the overall effects of climate variability and change on flows in western Canada by means of the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. Large-scale spatial patterns are determined through examination of trends and contrasts between upper and lower reaches of individual sub-basins, as well as via analysis of streamflow redistributions within the CROCWR region as an entirety (i.e. north, south, east and/or west-moving patterns). Results are used to predict future implications of hydroclimatic variability and change on western Canada's water resources and recommend measures to be taken by water managers in response to these changes. This research is part of a larger hydroclimatic study that includes an analysis of the climatic drivers contributing to shifting flow regimes in western Canada as well as a study of the controlling synoptic patterns and teleconnections associated with changes in these driving forces.

Complex responses of spring alpine vegetation phenology to snow cover dynamics over the Tibetan Plateau, China.

PubMed

Wang, Siyuan; Wang, Xiaoyue; Chen, Guangsheng; Yang, Qichun; Wang, Bin; Ma, Yuanxu; Shen, Ming

2017-09-01

Snow cover dynamics are considered to play a key role on spring phenological shifts in the high-latitude, so investigating responses of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics is becoming an increasingly important way to identify and predict global ecosystem dynamics. In this study, we quantified the temporal trends and spatial variations of spring phenology and snow cover across the Tibetan Plateau by calibrating and analyzing time series of the NOAA AVHRR-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during 1983-2012. We also examined how snow cover dynamics affect the spatio-temporal pattern of spring alpine vegetation phenology over the plateau. Our results indicated that 52.21% of the plateau experienced a significant advancing trend in the beginning of vegetation growing season (BGS) and 34.30% exhibited a delaying trend. Accordingly, the snow cover duration days (SCD) and snow cover melt date (SCM) showed similar patterns with a decreasing trend in the west and an increasing trend in the southeast, but the start date of snow cover (SCS) showed an opposite pattern. Meanwhile, the spatial patterns of the BGS, SCD, SCS and SCM varied in accordance with the gradients of temperature, precipitation and topography across the plateau. The response relationship of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics varied within different climate, terrain and alpine plant community zones, and the spatio-temporal response patterns were primarily controlled by the long-term local heat-water conditions and topographic conditions. Moreover, temperature and precipitation played a profound impact on diverse responses of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1988 Wet deposition temporal and spatial patterns in North America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simpson, J.C.; Olsen, A.R.; Bittner, E.A.

1992-03-01

The focus of this report is on North American wet deposition temporal patterns from 1979 to 1988 and spatial patterns for 1988. It is the third in a series of reports that investigate the patterns of annual precipitation-weighted average concentration and annual deposition for nine ion species: hydrogen, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, calcium, chloride, sodium, potassium, and magnesium. Mosaic maps, based on surface estimation using kriging, display concentration and deposition spatial patterns of pH, hydrogen, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, and calcium ion species for 1988 annual, winter, and summer periods. Temporal pattern analyses use a subset of 35 sites over a 10-yearmore » (1979--1988) period and an expanded subset of 137 sites, with greater spatial coverage, over a 7-year (1982--1988) period. The 10-year period represents the longest period with wet deposition monitoring data available that has a sufficient number of sites with data of known quality to allow a descriptive summary of annual temporal patterns. Sen's median trend estimate and Kendall's seasonal tau (KST) test are calculated for each ion species concentration and deposition at each site in both subsets.« less

Disparity in rainfall trend and patterns among different regions: analysis of 158 years' time series of rainfall dataset across India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Saurav; Chakraborty, Debasish; Paul, Ranjit Kumar; Samanta, Sandipan; Singh, S. B.

2017-10-01

Rainfall anomaly during crop-growing season can have large impact on the agricultural output of a country, especially like India, where two-thirds of the crop land is rain-fed. In such situation, decreased agricultural production not only challenges food security of the country but directly and immediately hits the livelihood of its farming community. In a vast country like India, rainfall or its anomalies hardly follow a specific pattern, rather it is having high variability in spatial domain. This study focused on the trends of national and regional rainfall anomalies (wetness/dryness) along with their interrelationship using time series data of past 158 years. The significant reducing wetness trend (p < 0.05) over north mountainous India was prominent with an increasing trend over southern peninsular India (p < 0.10). However, long-term annual wetness was increasing over entire peninsular India. The results of change point tests indicate that major abrupt changes occurred between early to mid-twentieth century having regional variations. The regional interrelationship was studied using principal component, hierarchical clustering, and pair-wise difference test, which clearly indicated a significantly different pattern in rainfall anomalies for north east India (p = 0.022), north central India (p = 0.022), and north mountainous India (p = 0.011) from that of the all India. Result of this study affirmed high spatial variability in rainfall anomaly and most importantly established the unalike pattern in trends of regional rainfall vis-à-vis national level, ushering towards paradigm shift in rainfall forecast from country scale to regional scale for pragmatic planning.

The Variable Grid Method, an Approach for the Simultaneous Visualization and Assessment of Spatial Trends and Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, K.; Glosser, D.; Bauer, J. R.; Barkhurst, A.

2015-12-01

The products of spatial analyses that leverage the interpolation of sparse, point data to represent continuous phenomena are often presented without clear explanations of the uncertainty associated with the interpolated values. As a result, there is frequently insufficient information provided to effectively support advanced computational analyses and individual research and policy decisions utilizing these results. This highlights the need for a reliable approach capable of quantitatively producing and communicating spatial data analyses and their inherent uncertainties for a broad range of uses. To address this need, we have developed the Variable Grid Method (VGM), and associated Python tool, which is a flexible approach that can be applied to a variety of analyses and use case scenarios where users need a method to effectively study, evaluate, and analyze spatial trends and patterns while communicating the uncertainty in the underlying spatial datasets. The VGM outputs a simultaneous visualization representative of the spatial data analyses and quantification of underlying uncertainties, which can be calculated using data related to sample density, sample variance, interpolation error, uncertainty calculated from multiple simulations, etc. We will present examples of our research utilizing the VGM to quantify key spatial trends and patterns for subsurface data interpolations and their uncertainties and leverage these results to evaluate storage estimates and potential impacts associated with underground injection for CO2 storage and unconventional resource production and development. The insights provided by these examples identify how the VGM can provide critical information about the relationship between uncertainty and spatial data that is necessary to better support their use in advance computation analyses and informing research, management and policy decisions.

Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, K.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Hannaford, J.; van Lanen, H. A. J.

2012-07-01

An overall appraisal of runoff changes at the European scale has been hindered by "white space" on maps of observed trends due to a paucity of readily-available streamflow data. This study tested whether this white space can be filled using estimates of trends derived from model simulations of European runoff. The simulations stem from an ensemble of eight global hydrological models that were forced with the same climate input for the period 1963-2000. The derived trends were validated for 293 grid cells across the European domain with observation-based trend estimates. The ensemble mean overall provided the best representation of trends in the observations. Maps of trends in annual runoff based on the ensemble mean demonstrated a pronounced continental dipole pattern of positive trends in western and northern Europe and negative trends in southern and parts of eastern Europe, which has not previously been demonstrated and discussed in comparable detail. Overall, positive trends in annual streamflow appear to reflect the marked wetting trends of the winter months, whereas negative annual trends result primarily from a widespread decrease in streamflow in spring and summer months, consistent with a decrease in summer low flow in large parts of Europe. High flow appears to have increased in rain-dominated hydrological regimes, whereas an inconsistent or decreasing signal was found in snow-dominated regimes. The different models agreed on the predominant continental-scale pattern of trends, but in some areas disagreed on the magnitude and even the direction of trends, particularly in transition zones between regions with increasing and decreasing runoff trends, in complex terrain with a high spatial variability, and in snow-dominated regimes. Model estimates appeared most reliable in reproducing observed trends in annual runoff, winter runoff, and 7-day high flow. Modelled trends in runoff during the summer months, spring (for snow influenced regions) and autumn, and trends in summer low flow were more variable - both among models and in the spatial patterns of agreement between models and the observations. The use of models to display changes in these hydrological characteristics should therefore be viewed with caution due to higher uncertainty.

Monitoring vegetation dynamics with medium resolution MODIS-EVI time series at sub-regional scale in southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubovyk, Olena; Landmann, Tobias; Erasmus, Barend F. N.; Tewes, Andreas; Schellberg, Jürgen

2015-06-01

Currently there is a lack of knowledge on spatio-temporal patterns of land surface dynamics at medium spatial scale in southern Africa, even though this information is essential for better understanding of ecosystem response to climatic variability and human-induced land transformations. In this study, we analysed vegetation dynamics across a large area in southern Africa using the 14-years (2000-2013) of medium spatial resolution (250 m) MODIS-EVI time-series data. Specifically, we investigated temporal changes in the time series of key phenometrics including overall greenness, peak and timing of annual greenness over the monitoring period and study region. In order to specifically capture spatial and per pixel vegetation changes over time, we calculated trends in these phenometrics using a robust trend analysis method. The results showed that interannual vegetation dynamics followed precipitation patterns with clearly differentiated seasonality. The earliest peak greenness during 2000-2013 occurred at the end of January in the year 2000 and the latest peak greenness was observed at the mid of March in 2012. Specifically spatial patterns of long-term vegetation trends allowed mapping areas of (i) decrease or increase in overall greenness, (ii) decrease or increase of peak greenness, and (iii) shifts in timing of occurrence of peak greenness over the 14-year monitoring period. The observed vegetation decline in the study area was mainly attributed to human-induced factors. The obtained information is useful to guide selection of field sites for detailed vegetation studies and land rehabilitation interventions and serve as an input for a range of land surface models.

Extent of Night Warming and Spatially Heterogeneous Cloudiness Differentiate Temporal Trend of Greenness in Mountainous Tropics in the New Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Mei; Gao, Qiong; Gao, Chunxiao; Wang, Chao

2017-01-01

Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamics but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and mechanisms behind are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated greenness trend in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000-2015, and analyzed trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to give prominence to climate impacts. We hypothesized that night warming and heavy cloudiness would reduce EVI in this mountainous tropical region. Over the 15 years, EVI decreased significantly in Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico, but increased in Cuba partly due to its strong reforestation. Haiti had the largest decreasing trend because of continuous deforestation for charcoals. After LCLUC was excluded, EVI trend still varied greatly, decreasing in the windward but increasing in the leeward of Puerto Rico. Nighttime warming reinforced by spatially heterogeneous cloudiness was found to significantly and negatively correlate with EVI trend, and explained the spatial pattern of the latter. Although cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, nighttime warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend.

Extent of Night Warming and Spatially Heterogeneous Cloudiness Differentiate Temporal Trend of Greenness in Mountainous Tropics in the New Century

PubMed Central

Yu, Mei; Gao, Qiong; Gao, Chunxiao; Wang, Chao

2017-01-01

Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamics but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and mechanisms behind are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated greenness trend in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000–2015, and analyzed trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to give prominence to climate impacts. We hypothesized that night warming and heavy cloudiness would reduce EVI in this mountainous tropical region. Over the 15 years, EVI decreased significantly in Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico, but increased in Cuba partly due to its strong reforestation. Haiti had the largest decreasing trend because of continuous deforestation for charcoals. After LCLUC was excluded, EVI trend still varied greatly, decreasing in the windward but increasing in the leeward of Puerto Rico. Nighttime warming reinforced by spatially heterogeneous cloudiness was found to significantly and negatively correlate with EVI trend, and explained the spatial pattern of the latter. Although cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, nighttime warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend. PMID:28120949

The influence of watershed characteristics on spatial patterns of trends in annual scale streamflow variability in the continental U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, Joshua S.; Emanuel, Ryan E.; Vose, James M.

2016-09-01

As human activity and climate variability alter the movement of water through the environment the need to better understand hydrologic cycle responses to these changes has grown. A reasonable starting point for gaining such insight is studying changes in streamflow given the importance of streamflow as a source of renewable freshwater. Using a wavelet assisted method we analyzed trends in the magnitude of annual scale streamflow variability from 967 watersheds in the continental U.S. (CONUS) over a 70 year period (1940-2009). Decreased annual variability was the dominant pattern at the CONUS scale. Ecoregion scale results agreed with the CONUS pattern with the exception of two ecoregions closely divided between increases and decreases and one where increases dominated. A comparison of trends in reference and non-reference watersheds indicated that trend magnitudes in non-reference watersheds were significantly larger than those in reference watersheds. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models were used to study the relationship between watershed characteristics and the magnitude of trends in streamflow. At the CONUS scale, the balance between precipitation and evaporative demand, and measures of geographic location were of high relative importance. Relationships between the magnitude of trends and watershed characteristics at the ecoregion scale exhibited differences from the CONUS results and substantial variability was observed among ecoregions. Additionally, the methodology used here has the potential to serve as a robust framework for top-down, data driven analyses of the relationships between changes in the hydrologic cycle and the spatial context within which those changes occur.

Quantifying spatial and temporal trends in beach-dune volumetric changes using spatial statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eamer, Jordan B. R.; Walker, Ian J.

2013-06-01

Spatial statistics are generally underutilized in coastal geomorphology, despite offering great potential for identifying and quantifying spatial-temporal trends in landscape morphodynamics. In particular, local Moran's Ii provides a statistical framework for detecting clusters of significant change in an attribute (e.g., surface erosion or deposition) and quantifying how this changes over space and time. This study analyzes and interprets spatial-temporal patterns in sediment volume changes in a beach-foredune-transgressive dune complex following removal of invasive marram grass (Ammophila spp.). Results are derived by detecting significant changes in post-removal repeat DEMs derived from topographic surveys and airborne LiDAR. The study site was separated into discrete, linked geomorphic units (beach, foredune, transgressive dune complex) to facilitate sub-landscape scale analysis of volumetric change and sediment budget responses. Difference surfaces derived from a pixel-subtraction algorithm between interval DEMs and the LiDAR baseline DEM were filtered using the local Moran's Ii method and two different spatial weights (1.5 and 5 m) to detect statistically significant change. Moran's Ii results were compared with those derived from a more spatially uniform statistical method that uses a simpler student's t distribution threshold for change detection. Morphodynamic patterns and volumetric estimates were similar between the uniform geostatistical method and Moran's Ii at a spatial weight of 5 m while the smaller spatial weight (1.5 m) consistently indicated volumetric changes of less magnitude. The larger 5 m spatial weight was most representative of broader site morphodynamics and spatial patterns while the smaller spatial weight provided volumetric changes consistent with field observations. All methods showed foredune deflation immediately following removal with increased sediment volumes into the spring via deposition at the crest and on lobes in the lee, despite erosion on the stoss slope and dune toe. Generally, the foredune became wider by landward extension and the seaward slope recovered from erosion to a similar height and form to that of pre-restoration despite remaining essentially free of vegetation.

The color of sea level: Importance of spatial variations in spectral shape for assessing the significance of trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Chris W.; Williams, Simon D. P.

2010-10-01

We investigate spatial variations in the shape of the spectrum of sea level variability based on a homogeneously sampled 12 year gridded altimeter data set. We present a method of plotting spectral information as color, focusing on periods between 2 and 24 weeks, which shows that significant spatial variations in the spectral shape exist and contain useful dynamical information. Using the Bayesian Information Criterion, we determine that, typically, a fifth-order autoregressive model is needed to capture the structure in the spectrum. Using this model, we show that statistical errors in fitted local trends range between less than 1 and more than 5 times of what would be calculated assuming "white" noise and that the time needed to detect a 1 mm/yr trend ranges between about 5 years and many decades. For global mean sea level, the statistical error reduces to 0.1 mm/yr over 12 years, with only 2 years needed to detect a 1 mm/yr trend. We find significant regional differences in trend from the global mean. The patterns of these regional differences are indicative of a sea level trend dominated by dynamical ocean processes over this period.

Spatial patterns of March and September streamflow trends in Pacific Northwest Streams, 1958-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chang, Heejun; Jung, Il-Won; Steele, Madeline; Gannett, Marshall

2012-01-01

Summer streamflow is a vital water resource for municipal and domestic water supplies, irrigation, salmonid habitat, recreation, and water-related ecosystem services in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) in the United States. This study detects significant negative trends in September absolute streamflow in a majority of 68 stream-gauging stations located on unregulated streams in the PNW from 1958 to 2008. The proportion of March streamflow to annual streamflow increases in most stations over 1,000 m elevation, with a baseflow index of less than 50, while absolute March streamflow does not increase in most stations. The declining trends of September absolute streamflow are strongly associated with seven-day low flow, January–March maximum temperature trends, and the size of the basin (19–7,260 km2), while the increasing trends of the fraction of March streamflow are associated with elevation, April 1 snow water equivalent, March precipitation, center timing of streamflow, and October–December minimum temperature trends. Compared with ordinary least squares (OLS) estimated regression models, spatial error regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models effectively remove spatial autocorrelation in residuals. The GWR model results show spatial gradients of local R 2 values with consistently higher local R 2 values in the northern Cascades. This finding illustrates that different hydrologic landscape factors, such as geology and seasonal distribution of precipitation, also influence streamflow trends in the PNW. In addition, our spatial analysis model results show that considering various geographic factors help clarify the dynamics of streamflow trends over a large geographical area, supporting a spatial analysis approach over aspatial OLS-estimated regression models for predicting streamflow trends. Results indicate that transitional rain–snow surface water-dominated basins are likely to have reduced summer streamflow under warming scenarios. Consequently, a better understanding of the relationships among summer streamflow, precipitation, snowmelt, elevation, and geology can help water managers predict the response of regional summer streamflow to global warming.

Temporal trends of forest interior conditions in the United States

Treesearch

Kurt Riitters; James. Wickham

2012-01-01

Nature's benefits derived from forest interior environments cannot be sustained if the natural capital of forest interior area is not sustained. We analyzed the spatial patterns of forest loss and gain for the conterminous United States from 2001 to 2006 to determine whether forest interior environments were maintained at five spatial scales. A 1.1 percent net...

1988 Wet deposition temporal and spatial patterns in North America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simpson, J.C.; Olsen, A.R.; Bittner, E.A.

1992-03-01

The focus of this report is on North American wet deposition temporal patterns from 1979 to 1988 and spatial patterns for 1988. It is the third in a series of reports that investigate the patterns of annual precipitation-weighted average concentration and annual deposition for nine ion species: hydrogen, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, calcium, chloride, sodium, potassium, and magnesium. Mosaic maps, based on surface estimation using kriging, display concentration and deposition spatial patterns of pH, hydrogen, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, and calcium ion species for 1988 annual, winter, and summer periods. Temporal pattern analyses use a subset of 35 sites over a 10-yearmore » (1979--1988) period and an expanded subset of 137 sites, with greater spatial coverage, over a 7-year (1982--1988) period. The 10-year period represents the longest period with wet deposition monitoring data available that has a sufficient number of sites with data of known quality to allow a descriptive summary of annual temporal patterns. Sen`s median trend estimate and Kendall`s seasonal tau (KST) test are calculated for each ion species concentration and deposition at each site in both subsets.« less

Accessing Recent Trend of Land Surface Temperature from Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Suhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.; Romanov, Peter

2011-01-01

Land surface temperature (Ts) is an important element to measure the state of terrestrial ecosystems and to study surface energy budgets. In support of the land cover/land use change-related international program MAIRS (Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study), we have collected global monthly Ts measured by MODIS since the beginning of the missions. The MODIS Ts time series have approximately 11 years of data from Terra since 2000 and approximately 9 years of data from Aqua since 2002, which makes possible to study the recent climate, such as trend. In this study, monthly climatology from two platforms are calculated and compared with that from AIRS. The spatial patterns of Ts trends are accessed, focusing on the Eurasia region. Furthermore, MODIS Ts trends are compared with those from AIRS and NASA's atmospheric assimilation model, MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications). The preliminary results indicate that the recent 8-year Ts trend shows an oscillation-type spatial variation over Eurasia. The pattern is consistent for data from MODIS, AIRS, and MERRA, with the positive center over Eastern Europe, and the negative center over Central Siberia. The calculated climatology and anomaly of MODIS Ts will be integrated into the online visualization system, Giovanni, at NASA GES DISC for easy use by scientists and general public.

Trends in stream nitrogen concentrations for forested reference catchments across the USA

Treesearch

A. Argerich; S.L. Johnson; S.D. Sebestyen; C.C. Rhoades; E. Greathouse; J.D. Knoepp; M.B. Adams; G.E. Likens; J.L. Campbell; W.H. McDowell; F.N. Scatena; G.G. Ice

2013-01-01

To examine whether stream nitrogen concentrations in forested reference catchments have changed over time and if patterns were consistent across the USA, we synthesized up to 44 yr of data collected from 22 catchments at seven USDA Forest Service Experimental Forests. Trends in stream nitrogen presented high spatial variability both among catchments at a site and among...

Spatial and Alignment Analyses for a Field of Small Volcanic Vents South of Pavonis Mons and Implications for the Tharsis Province, Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bleacher, Jacob E.; Glaze, Lori S.; Greeley, Ronald; Hauber, Ernst; Baloga, Stephen; Sakimoto, Susan E. H.; Williams, David A.; Glotch, Timothy D.

2009-01-01

A field of small volcanic vents south of Pavonis Mons was mapped with each vent assigned a two-dimensional data point. Nearest neighbor and two-point azimuth analyses were applied to the resulting location data. Nearest neighbor results show that vents within this field are spatially random in a Poisson sense, suggesting that the vents formed independently of each other without sharing a centralized magma source at shallow depth. Two-point azimuth results show that the vents display north-trending alignment relationships between one another. This trend corresponds to the trends of faults and fractures of the Noachian-aged Claritas Fossae, which might extend into our study area buried beneath more recently emplaced lava flows. However, individual elongate vent summit structures do not consistently display the same trend. The development of the volcanic field appears to display tectonic control from buried Noachian-aged structural patterns on small, ascending magma bodies while the surface orientations of the linear vents might reflect different, younger tectonic patterns. These results suggest a complex interaction between magma ascension through the crust, and multiple, older, buried Tharsis-related tectonic structures.

How much have California winters warmed over the last century?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, K. J.; Williams, A. P.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-09-01

Extraordinarily warm 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 winter temperatures in California accompanied by drought conditions contributed to low snow accumulations and stressed water resources, giving rise to the question: how much has California's climate warmed over the last century? We examine long-term trends in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) daily temperatures in winter estimated from five gridded data sets. Resulting trends show some consistent features, such as higher trends in Tmin than Tmax; however, substantial differences exist in the trend magnitudes and spatial patterns due mostly to the nature of spatial interpolation employed in the different data sets. Averaged across California over 1920-2015, Tmax trends vary from -0.30 to 1.2°C/century, while Tmin trends range from 1.2 to 1.9°C/century. The differences in temperature strongly impact modeled changes in snow water equivalent over the last century (from -5.0 to -7.6 km3/century).

The new MOPREDAS database and the monthly precipitation trends in Spain (December 1945- November 2005)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Hidalgo, Jose Carlos; Brunetti, Michele; Martin, De Luis

2010-05-01

Precipitation is one of the most important climate elements directly affecting human society, economic activities and natural systems; at the same time it is the most variable climate element, and its changes can be detected only if a spatially dense network of observations is used. Due to this, the last AR4 report renewed interest in the study of precipitation, and suggests focusing on detailed sub-regional studies, with a preference for those areas where water is a scarce resource with heavy demands placed on it. We have developed the new MOPREDAS database (MOnthly PREcipitation DAtabase of Spain) by exploiting the total amount of data available at Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET, formerly INM). These provide a total of 2670 complete and homogeneous series for the period 1946-2005 after exhaustive quality control and reconstruction processes, and at present is the most complete and extensive monthly precipitation dataset uptodated in Spain, including dense information up to 1500 m o.l.s.. MOPREDAS has been created with the aim of analyzing the behaviour of precipitation in the conterminous provinces of Spain, and to validate the downscaling of climate models on a detailed spatial level. To this end, the station data were also interpolated on a regular grid, at 1/10 of degree of resolution, over the whole Spain. Trend analysis (Mann-Kendall text, p <0,10) confirms great spatial and temporal variability in the behaviour of precipitation across Spain between 1946-2005. Except March, June and October, no generalized significant pattern have been found, but subregional areas with homogeneous trend were detected. MOPREDAS shows a global decrease of precipitation in March that affects 68.9% of Spain and 31.8% in June, while in October the area affected by positive trends is 33.7% of land (p<0.10). We detected numerous sub-regional coherent patterns well delineated by topographic factors, and passing unnoticed until now due to inadequate data density. These results suggest that both global and local factors affect the spatial distribution of trends in the Iberian Peninsula, being mountain chains the most significant geographical factor in determining the spatial distribution of monthly trends on a detailed, sub-regional spatial scale.

Evaluating the Consistency of the 1982–1999 NDVI Trends in the Iberian Peninsula across Four Time-series Derived from the AVHRR Sensor: LTDR, GIMMS, FASIR, and PAL-II

PubMed Central

Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Liras, Elisa; Tabik, Siham; Paruelo, José; Cabello, Javier

2010-01-01

Successive efforts have processed the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor archive to produce Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets (i.e., PAL, FASIR, GIMMS, and LTDR) under different corrections and processing schemes. Since NDVI datasets are used to evaluate carbon gains, differences among them may affect nations’ carbon budgets in meeting international targets (such as the Kyoto Protocol). This study addresses the consistency across AVHRR NDVI datasets in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) by evaluating whether their 1982–1999 NDVI trends show similar spatial patterns. Significant trends were calculated with the seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test and their spatial consistency with partial Mantel tests. Over 23% of the Peninsula (N, E, and central mountain ranges) showed positive and significant NDVI trends across the four datasets and an additional 18% across three datasets. In 20% of Iberia (SW quadrant), the four datasets exhibited an absence of significant trends and an additional 22% across three datasets. Significant NDVI decreases were scarce (croplands in the Guadalquivir and Segura basins, La Mancha plains, and Valencia). Spatial consistency of significant trends across at least three datasets was observed in 83% of the Peninsula, but it decreased to 47% when comparing across the four datasets. FASIR, PAL, and LTDR were the most spatially similar datasets, while GIMMS was the most different. The different performance of each AVHRR dataset to detect significant NDVI trends (e.g., LTDR detected greater significant trends (both positive and negative) and in 32% more pixels than GIMMS) has great implications to evaluate carbon budgets. The lack of spatial consistency across NDVI datasets derived from the same AVHRR sensor archive, makes it advisable to evaluate carbon gains trends using several satellite datasets and, whether possible, independent/additional data sources to contrast. PMID:22205868

Evaluating the consistency of the 1982-1999 NDVI trends in the Iberian Peninsula across four time-series derived from the AVHRR sensor: LTDR, GIMMS, FASIR, and PAL-II.

PubMed

Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Liras, Elisa; Tabik, Siham; Paruelo, José; Cabello, Javier

2010-01-01

Successive efforts have processed the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor archive to produce Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets (i.e., PAL, FASIR, GIMMS, and LTDR) under different corrections and processing schemes. Since NDVI datasets are used to evaluate carbon gains, differences among them may affect nations' carbon budgets in meeting international targets (such as the Kyoto Protocol). This study addresses the consistency across AVHRR NDVI datasets in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) by evaluating whether their 1982-1999 NDVI trends show similar spatial patterns. Significant trends were calculated with the seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test and their spatial consistency with partial Mantel tests. Over 23% of the Peninsula (N, E, and central mountain ranges) showed positive and significant NDVI trends across the four datasets and an additional 18% across three datasets. In 20% of Iberia (SW quadrant), the four datasets exhibited an absence of significant trends and an additional 22% across three datasets. Significant NDVI decreases were scarce (croplands in the Guadalquivir and Segura basins, La Mancha plains, and Valencia). Spatial consistency of significant trends across at least three datasets was observed in 83% of the Peninsula, but it decreased to 47% when comparing across the four datasets. FASIR, PAL, and LTDR were the most spatially similar datasets, while GIMMS was the most different. The different performance of each AVHRR dataset to detect significant NDVI trends (e.g., LTDR detected greater significant trends (both positive and negative) and in 32% more pixels than GIMMS) has great implications to evaluate carbon budgets. The lack of spatial consistency across NDVI datasets derived from the same AVHRR sensor archive, makes it advisable to evaluate carbon gains trends using several satellite datasets and, whether possible, independent/additional data sources to contrast.

The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on Recent Greenland Surface Mass Loss and Mass Partitioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tedesco, M.; Alexander, P.; Porter, D. F.; Fettweis, X.; Luthcke, S. B.; Mote, T. L.; Rennermalm, A.; Hanna, E.

2017-12-01

Despite recent changes in Greenland surface mass losses and atmospheric circulation over the Arctic, little attention has been given to the potential role of large-scale atmospheric processes on the spatial and temporal variability of mass loss and partitioning of the GrIS mass loss. Using a combination of satellite gravimetry measurements, outputs of the MAR regional climate model and reanalysis data, we show that changes in atmospheric patterns since 2013 over the North Atlantic region of the Arctic (NAA) modulate total mass loss trends over Greenland together with the spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss partitioning. For example, during the 2002 - 2012 period, melting persistently increased, especially along the west coast, as a consequence of increased insulation and negative NAO conditions characterizing that period. Starting in 2013, runoff along the west coast decreased while snowfall increased substantially, when NAO turned to a more neutral/positive state. Modeled surface mass balance terms since 1950 indicate that part of the GRACE-period, specifically the period between 2002 and 2012, was exceptional in terms of snowfall over the east and northeast regions. During that period snowfall trend decreased to almost 0 Gt/yr from a long-term increasing trend, which presumed again in 2013. To identify the potential impact of atmospheric patterns on mass balance and its partitioning, we studied the spatial and temporal correlations between NAO and snowfall/runoff. Our results indicate that the correlation between summer snowfall and NAO is not stable during the 1950 - 2015 period. We further looked at changes in patterns of circulation using self organizing maps (SOMs) to identify the atmospheric patterns characterizing snowfall during different periods. We discuss potential implications for past changes and future GCM and RCM simulations.

On the road to national mapping and attribution of the processes underlying U.S

Treesearch

Karen Schleeweis; Gretchen G. Moisen; Todd A. Schroeder; Chris Toney; Elizabeth A. Freeman

2015-01-01

Questions regarding the impact of natural and anthropogenic forest change events (temporary and persisting) on energy, water and nutrient cycling, forest sustainability and resilience, and ecosystem services call for a full suite of information on the spatial and temporal trends of forest dynamics. Temporal and spatial patterns of change along with their magnitude and...

Trends of Cyclone Characteristics in the Arctic and Their Patterns From Different Reanalysis Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahn, Matthias; Akperov, Mirseid; Rinke, Annette; Feser, Frauke; Mokhov, Igor I.

2018-03-01

Cyclones in the Arctic are detected and tracked in four different reanalysis data sets from 1981 to 2010. In great detail the spatial and seasonal patterns of changes are scrutinized with regards to their frequencies, depths, and sizes. We find common spatial patterns for their occurrences, with centers of main activity over the seas in winter, and more activity over land and over the North Pole in summer. The deep cyclones are more frequent in winter, and the number of weak cyclones peaks in summer. Overall, we find a good agreement of our tracking results across the different reanalyses. Regarding the frequency changes, we find strong decreases in the Barents Sea and along the Russian coast toward the North Pole and increases over most of the central Arctic Ocean and toward the Pacific in winter. Areas of increasing and decreasing frequencies are of similar size in winter. In summer there is a longish region of increase from the Laptev Sea toward Greenland, over the Canadian archipelago, and over some smaller regions west of Novaya Zemlya and over the Russia. The larger part of the Arctic experiences a frequency decrease. All the summer changes are found statistically unrelated to the winter patterns. In addition, the frequency changes are found unrelated to changes in cyclone depth and size. There is generally good agreement across the different reanalyses in the spatial patterns of the trend sign. However, the magnitudes of changes in a particular region may strongly differ across the data.

Historic and recent patterns in dissolved oxygen within the Yaquina Estuary (Oregon, USA): Importance of anthropogenic activities and oceanic conditions

EPA Science Inventory

Spatial and temporal patterns of dissolved oxygen (DO) in Yaquina Estuary, Oregon (USA) are examined using historic and recent data. There was a significant increasing trend in DO in the upstream portion of the estuary during the years 1960–1985. Historically, minimum dry season ...

Combining raw and compositional data to determine the spatial patterns of Potentially Toxic Elements in soils.

PubMed

Boente, C; Albuquerque, M T D; Fernández-Braña, A; Gerassis, S; Sierra, C; Gallego, J R

2018-08-01

When considering complex scenarios involving several attributes, such as in environmental characterization, a clearer picture of reality can be achieved through the dimensional reduction of data. In this context, maps facilitate the visualization of spatial patterns of contaminant distribution and the identification of enriched areas. A set, of 15 Potentially Toxic Elements (PTEs) - (As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, Tl, V, and Zn), was measured in soil, collected in Langreo's municipality (80km 2 ), Spain. Relative enrichment (RE) is introduced here to refer to the proportion of elements present in a given context. Indeed, a novel approach is provided for research into PTE fate. This method involves studying the variability of PTE proportions throughout the study area, thereby allowing the identification of dissemination trends. Traditional geostatistical approaches commonly use raw data (concentrations) accepting that the elements analyzed make up the entirety of the soil. However, in geochemical studies the analyzed elements are just a fraction of the total soil composition. Therefore, considering compositional data is pivotal. The spatial characterization of PTEs considering raw and compositional data together allowed a broad discussion about, not only the PTEs concentration's distribution but also to reckon possible trends of relative enrichment (RE). Transformations to open closed data are widely used for this purpose. Spatial patterns have an indubitable interest. In this study, the Centered Log-ratio transformation (clr) was used, followed by its back-transformation, to build a set of compositional data that, combined with raw data, allowed to establish the sources of the PTEs and trends of spatial dissemination. Based on the obtained findings it was possible to conclude that the Langreo area is deeply affected by its industrial and mining legacy. City center is highly enriched in Pb and Hg and As shows enrichment in a northwesterly direction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piniewski, Mikołaj; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2018-02-01

The issue of trend detection in long time series of river flow records is of vast theoretical interest and considerable practical relevance. Water management is based on the assumption of stationarity; hence, it is crucial to check whether taking this assumption is justified. The objective of this study is to analyse long-term trends in selected river flow indices in small- and medium-sized catchments with relatively unmodified flow regime (semi-natural catchments) in Poland. The examined indices describe annual and seasonal average conditions as well as annual extreme conditions—low and high flows. The special focus is on the spatial analysis of trends, carried out on a comprehensive, representative data set of flow gauges. The present paper is timely, as no spatially comprehensive studies (i.e. covering the entire Poland or its large parts) on trend detection in time series of river flow have been done in the recent 15 years or so. The results suggest that there is a strong random component in the river flow process, the changes are weak and the spatial pattern is complex. Yet, the results of trend detection in different indices of river flow in Poland show that there exists a spatial divide that seems to hold quite generally for various indices (annual, seasonal, as well as low and high flow). Decreases of river flow dominate in the northern part of the country and increases usually in the southern part. Stations in the central part show mostly `no trend' results. However, the spatial gradient is apparent only for the data for the period 1981-2016 rather than for 1956-2016. It seems also that the magnitude of increases of river flow is generally lower than that of decreases.

Spatiotemporal patterns of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in China, 2011-2016.

PubMed

Sun, Jimin; Lu, Liang; Wu, Haixia; Yang, Jun; Liu, Keke; Liu, Qiyong

2018-05-01

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is emerging and the number of SFTS cases have increased year by year in China. However, spatiotemporal patterns and trends of SFTS are less clear up to date. In order to explore spatiotemporal patterns and predict SFTS incidences, we analyzed temporal trends of SFTS using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, spatial patterns, and spatiotemporal clusters of SFTS cases at the county level based on SFTS data in China during 2011-2016. We determined the optimal time series model was ARIMA (2, 0, 1) × (0, 0, 1) 12 which fitted the SFTS cases reasonably well during the training process and forecast process. In the spatial clustering analysis, the global autocorrelation suggested that SFTS cases were not of random distribution. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis of SFTS identified foci mainly concentrated in Hubei Province, Henan Province, Anhui Province, Shandong Province, Liaoning Province, and Zhejiang Province. A most likely cluster including 21 counties in Henan Province and Hubei Province was observed in the central region of China from April 2015 to August 2016. Our results will provide a sound evidence base for future prevention and control programs of SFTS such as allocation of the health resources, surveillance in high-risk regions, health education, improvement of diagnosis and so on. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

The impact of North Atlantic wind and cyclone trends on European precipitation and significant wave height in the Atlantic.

PubMed

Trigo, Ricardo M; Valente, Maria A; Trigo, Isabel F; Miranda, Pedro M A; Ramos, Alexandre M; Paredes, Daniel; García-Herrera, Ricardo

2008-12-01

An analysis of the frequency of cyclones and surface wind velocity for the Euro-Atlantic sector is performed by means of an objective methodology. Monthly and seasonal trends of cyclones and wind speed magnitude are computed and trends between 1960 and 2000 evaluated. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February, and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind magnitude trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low-pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends in the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (October-March), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s/year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for January-March are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of lat 50 degrees N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5 cm/year just north of Scotland). Trends in European precipitation are assessed using the Climatic Research Unit data set. The results of the assessment emphasize the link with the corresponding tendencies of cyclone frequencies. Finally, it is shown that these changes are associated, to a large extent, with the preferred phases of major large-scale atmospheric circulation modes, particularly with the North Atlantic Oscillation, the eastern Atlantic pattern, and the Scandinavian pattern.

The effect of length and starting year on trend analyses of temperatures in Spanish mainland (1951-2010). Seasonal analyses: Spring (III)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas Solé, Celia; Peña Angulo, Dhais; Gonzalez Hidalgo, Jose Carlos; Brunetti, Michele

2017-04-01

In this poster we applied the moving window approach (see Poster I of this collection) to analyze trends of spring and its corresponding months (March, April, May) temperature mean values of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) in Spanish mainland to detect the effects of length period and starting year. Monthly series belong to Monthly Temperature dataset of Spanish mainland (MOTEDAS). Database contains in its grid format of 5236 pixels of monthly series (10x10 km). The threshold used in spatial analyses considers 20% of land under significant trend (p<0.05). The most striking results are as follow: • Seasonal Tmax shows that global trend was positive and significant until the mid 80's with higher values than 75% from between 1954-2010 to 1979-2010, being reduced after to the north region. So, from 1985-2010 no significant trend have been detected. Monthly analyses show differences. March trend is not significant (<20% of area) since 1974-2010, while significant trend in April and May varies between 1961-2010/1979-2010 and 1965-2010/1980-2010 respectively, clearly located in northern midland and Mediterranean coastland. • Spring Tmin trend analyses is significantly (>20%) during all temporal windows, notwithstanding NW do not show global significant trend, and in the most recent temporal windows only affect significantly SE. Monthly analyses also differ. Not significant trend is detected in March from 1979-2010, and from 1985-2010 in May, being April the month in any temporal windows with more than 20% of land affected by significant trend. • Spatial differences are detected between windows (South-North in March, East-West in April-May. We can conclude Tmax trend varies accordingly temporal windows dramatically in spring and no significance has been detected in the recent decades. Northern areas and Mediterranean coastland seems to be the most affected. Monthy Tmax trend spatial analyses confirm the heterogeneity of diurnal temperatures; different spatial gradients in windows have been detected between months. Seasonal Tmin show a more global temporal pattern. Spatial gradients of significance between months have been detected, in some sense contraries to the observed in Tmax.

Spatio-temporal diffusion pattern and hotspot detection of dengue in Chachoengsao province, Thailand.

PubMed

Jeefoo, Phaisarn; Tripathi, Nitin Kumar; Souris, Marc

2011-01-01

In recent years, dengue has become a major international public health concern. In Thailand it is also an important concern as several dengue outbreaks were reported in last decade. This paper presents a GIS approach to analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue epidemics. The major objective of this study was to examine spatial diffusion patterns and hotspot identification for reported dengue cases. Geospatial diffusion pattern of the 2007 dengue outbreak was investigated. Map of daily cases was generated for the 153 days of the outbreak. Epidemiological data from Chachoengsao province, Thailand (reported dengue cases for the years 1999-2007) was used for this study. To analyze the dynamic space-time pattern of dengue outbreaks, all cases were positioned in space at a village level. After a general statistical analysis (by gender and age group), data was subsequently analyzed for temporal patterns and correlation with climatic data (especially rainfall), spatial patterns and cluster analysis, and spatio-temporal patterns of hotspots during epidemics. The results revealed spatial diffusion patterns during the years 1999-2007 representing spatially clustered patterns with significant differences by village. Villages on the urban fringe reported higher incidences. The space and time of the cases showed outbreak movement and spread patterns that could be related to entomologic and epidemiologic factors. The hotspots showed the spatial trend of dengue diffusion. This study presents useful information related to the dengue outbreak patterns in space and time and may help public health departments to plan strategies to control the spread of disease. The methodology is general for space-time analysis and can be applied for other infectious diseases as well.

ACID RAIN MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

This paper provides an overview of existing statistical methodologies for the estimation of site-specific and regional trends in wet deposition. The interaction of atmospheric processes and emissions tend to produce wet deposition data patterns that show large spatial and tempora...

Spatial and Temporal scales of time-averaged 700 MB height anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gutzler, D.

1981-01-01

The monthly and seasonal forecasting technique is based to a large extent on the extrapolation of trends in the positions of the centers of time averaged geopotential height anomalies. The complete forecasted height pattern is subsequently drawn around the forecasted anomaly centers. The efficacy of this technique was tested and time series of observed monthly mean and 5 day mean 700 mb geopotential heights were examined. Autocorrelation statistics are generated to document the tendency for persistence of anomalies. These statistics are compared to a red noise hypothesis to check for evidence of possible preferred time scales of persistence. Space-time spectral analyses at middle latitudes are checked for evidence of periodicities which could be associated with predictable month-to-month trends. A local measure of the average spatial scale of anomalies is devised for guidance in the completion of the anomaly pattern around the forecasted centers.

Dynamic Analysis of Soil Erosion in Songhua River Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yujuan; Li, Xiuhai; Wang, Qiang; Liu, Jiang; Liang, Xin; Li, Dan; Ni, Chundi; Liu, Yan

2018-01-01

In this paper, based on RS and GIS technology and Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), the soil erosion dynamic changes during the two periods of 1990 and 2010 in Bin County was analyzed by using the Landsat TM data of the two periods, so as to reveal the soil erosion spatial distribution pattern and spatial and temporal dynamic evolution rule in the region. The results showed that: the overall patterns of soil erosion were basically the same in both periods, mainly featuring slight erosion and mild erosion, with the area proportions of 80.68% and 74.71% respectively. The slight and extremely intensive erosion changing rates showed a narrowing trend; mild, moderate and intensive erosion was increasing, with a trend of increased soil erosion; mild and intensive erosion were developing towards moderate erosion and moderate and extremely intensive erosion were progressing towards intensive erosion.

Spatial patterns of increases and decreases in the length of the sea ice season in the north polar region, 1979-1986

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

1992-01-01

Recently it was reported that sea ice extents in the Northern Hemisphere showed a very slight but statistically significant decrease over the 8.8-year period of the Nimbus 7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) data set. In this paper the same SMMR data are used to reveal spatial patterns in increasing and decreasing sea ice coverage. Specifically, the length of the ice season is mapped for each full year of the SMMR data set (1979-1986), and the trends over the 8 years in these ice season lengths are also mapped. These trends show considerable spatial coherence, with a shortening in the sea ice season apparent in much of the eastern hemisphere of the north polar ice cover, particularly in the Sea of Okhotsk, the Barents Sea, and the Kara Sea, and a lengthening of the sea ice season apparent in much of the western hemisphere of the north polar ice cover, particularly in Davis Strait, the Labrador Sea, and the Beaufort Sea.

Southern Ocean air-sea heat flux, SST spatial anomalies, and implications for multi-decadal upper ocean heat content trends.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamsitt, V. M.; Talley, L. D.; Mazloff, M. R.

2014-12-01

The Southern Ocean displays a zonal dipole (wavenumber one) pattern in sea surface temperature (SST), with a cool zonal anomaly in the Atlantic and Indian sectors and a warm zonal anomaly in the Pacific sector, associated with the large northward excursion of the Malvinas and southeastward flow of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). To the north of the cool Indian sector is the warm, narrow Agulhas Return Current (ARC). Air-sea heat flux is largely the inverse of this SST pattern, with ocean heat gain in the Atlantic/Indian, cooling in the southeastward-flowing ARC, and cooling in the Pacific, based on adjusted fluxes from the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE), a ⅙° eddy permitting model constrained to all available in situ data. This heat flux pattern is dominated by turbulent heat loss from the ocean (latent and sensible), proportional to perturbations in the difference between SST and surface air temperature, which are maintained by ocean advection. Locally in the Indian sector, intense heat loss along the ARC is contrasted by ocean heat gain of 0.11 PW south of the ARC. The IPCC AR5 50 year depth-averaged 0-700 m temperature trend shows surprising similarities in its spatial pattern, with upper ocean warming in the ARC contrasted by cooling to the south. Using diagnosed heat budget terms from the most recent (June 2014) 6-year run of the SOSE we find that surface cooling in the ARC is balanced by heating from south-eastward advection by the current whereas heat gain in the ACC is balanced by cooling due to northward Ekman transport driven by strong westerly winds. These results suggest that spatial patterns in multi-decadal upper ocean temperature trends depend on regional variations in upper ocean dynamics.

Spatial patterns and secular trends in human leishmaniasis incidence in Morocco between 2003 and 2013.

PubMed

Sadeq, Mina

2016-05-11

Few studies on spatial patterns or secular trends in human leishmanias have been conducted in Morocco. This study aimed to examine spatial patterns and trends associated with the human leishmaniasis incidence rate (HLIR) at the province/prefecture level between 2003 and 2013 in Morocco. Only the available published country data on the HLIR between 2003 and 2013, from the open access files of the Ministry of Health, were used. Secular trends were examined using Kendall's rank correlation. An exploratory spatial data analysis was also conducted to examine the spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran's I and local indicator of spatial association [LISA]), and spatial diffusion at the province/prefecture level. The influence of various covariates (poverty rate, vulnerability rate, population density, and urbanization) on the HLIR was tested via spatial regression (ordinary least squares regression). At the country level, no secular variation was observed. Poisson annual incidence rate estimates were 13 per 100 000 population (95 % CI = 12.9-13.1) for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) and 0.4 per 100 000 population (95 % CI = 0.4-0.5) for visceral leishmaniasis (VL). The available data on HLIR were based on combined CL and VL cases, however, as the CL cases totally outnumbered the VL ones, HLIR may be considered as CL incidence rate. At the provincial level, a secular increase in the incidence rate was observed in Al Hoceima (P = 0.008), Taounate (P = 0.04), Larache (P = 0.002), Tétouan (P = 0.0003), Khenifra (P = 0.008), Meknes (P = 0.03), and El Kelaa (P = 0.0007), whereas a secular decrease was observed only in the Chichaoua province (P = 0.006). Even though increased or decreased rate was evident in these provinces, none of them showed clustering of leishmaniasis incidence. Significant spatial clusters of high leishmaniasis incidence were located in the northeastern part of Morocco, while spatial clusters of low leishmaniasis incidence were seen in some northwestern and southern parts of Morocco; there was spatial randomness in the remaining parts of the country. Significant clustering was seen from 2005 to 2013, during which time the Errachidia province was a permanent 'hot spot'. Global Moran's I increased from 0.2844 (P = 0.006) in 2005 to 0.5886 (P = 0.001) in 2011, and decreased to 0.2491 (P = 0.004) in 2013. It was found that only poverty had an effect on the HLIR (P = 0.0003), contributing only 23 % to this (Adjusted R-squared = 0.226). Localities showing either secular increase in human leishmaniasis or significant clustering have been identified, which may guide decision-making as to where to appropriately allocate funding and implement control measures. Researchers are also urged to undertake further studies focusing on these localities.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rutherford, L.A.; Matthews, S.L.

A study was conducted to determine historical atmospheric mercury deposition patterns in the Maritime Provinces. Investigators measured mercury concentrations in peat cores from five ombrotrophic bogs in Kejimkujik, Fundy, Kouchibougouac, and Cape Breton Highlands national parks and in East Baltic Bog, Prince Edward Island. Results presented and discussed include deposition rates calculated using lead-210 date estimates, temporal trends in mercury concentrations, and spatial patterns of mercury deposition.

No growth stimulation of Canada's boreal forest under half-century of combined warming and CO2 fertilization.

PubMed

Girardin, Martin P; Bouriaud, Olivier; Hogg, Edward H; Kurz, Werner; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Metsaranta, Juha M; de Jong, Rogier; Frank, David C; Esper, Jan; Büntgen, Ulf; Guo, Xiao Jing; Bhatti, Jagtar

2016-12-27

Considerable evidence exists that current global temperatures are higher than at any time during the past millennium. However, the long-term impacts of rising temperatures and associated shifts in the hydrological cycle on the productivity of ecosystems remain poorly understood for mid to high northern latitudes. Here, we quantify species-specific spatiotemporal variability in terrestrial aboveground biomass stem growth across Canada's boreal forests from 1950 to the present. We use 873 newly developed tree-ring chronologies from Canada's National Forest Inventory, representing an unprecedented degree of sampling standardization for a large-scale dendrochronological study. We find significant regional- and species-related trends in growth, but the positive and negative trends compensate each other to yield no strong overall trend in forest growth when averaged across the Canadian boreal forest. The spatial patterns of growth trends identified in our analysis were to some extent coherent with trends estimated by remote sensing, but there are wide areas where remote-sensing information did not match the forest growth trends. Quantifications of tree growth variability as a function of climate factors and atmospheric CO 2 concentration reveal strong negative temperature and positive moisture controls on spatial patterns of tree growth rates, emphasizing the ecological sensitivity to regime shifts in the hydrological cycle. An enhanced dependence of forest growth on soil moisture during the late-20th century coincides with a rapid rise in summer temperatures and occurs despite potential compensating effects from increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration.

A pilot study of spatial patterns in referrals to a multicentre cancer genetics service.

PubMed

Tempest, Vanessa; Higgs, Gary; McDonald, Kevin; Iredale, Rachel; Bater, Tony; Gray, Jonathon

2005-01-01

To analyse spatial and temporal patterns in patients referred to a cancer genetics service in order to monitor service utilization and accessibility. Postcodes of patients during a 4-year period were used to examine spatial patterns using a Geographical Information System (GIS). Referral rates were compared visually and statistically to explore yearly variation for administrative areas in Wales. There has been a four-fold increase in actual referrals to the service over the period of study. The variance between unitary authority referral rates has decreased from the inception of the service from an almost ten-fold difference between lowest and highest in year 1 to less than a three-fold difference in year 4. This study shows the potential of GIS to highlight spatial variations in referral rates across Wales. Although the disparity in referral rates has decreased, trends in referral rates are not consistent. Ongoing research will examine those referral and referrer characteristics affecting uptake. Copyright 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology of Viral Hepatitis in China (2003-2015): Implications for Prevention and Control Policies.

PubMed

Zhu, Bin; Liu, Jinlin; Fu, Yang; Zhang, Bo; Mao, Ying

2018-04-02

Viral hepatitis, as one of the most serious notifiable infectious diseases in China, takes heavy tolls from the infected and causes a severe economic burden to society, yet few studies have systematically explored the spatio-temporal epidemiology of viral hepatitis in China. This study aims to explore, visualize and compare the epidemiologic trends and spatial changing patterns of different types of viral hepatitis (A, B, C, E and unspecified, based on the classification of CDC) at the provincial level in China. The growth rates of incidence are used and converted to box plots to visualize the epidemiologic trends, with the linear trend being tested by chi-square linear by linear association test. Two complementary spatial cluster methods are used to explore the overall agglomeration level and identify spatial clusters: spatial autocorrelation analysis (measured by global and local Moran's I) and space-time scan analysis. Based on the spatial autocorrelation analysis, the hotspots of hepatitis A remain relatively stable and gradually shrunk, with Yunnan and Sichuan successively moving out the high-high (HH) cluster area. The HH clustering feature of hepatitis B in China gradually disappeared with time. However, the HH cluster area of hepatitis C has gradually moved towards the west, while for hepatitis E, the provincial units around the Yangtze River Delta region have been revealing HH cluster features since 2005. The space-time scan analysis also indicates the distinct spatial changing patterns of different types of viral hepatitis in China. It is easy to conclude that there is no one-size-fits-all plan for the prevention and control of viral hepatitis in all the provincial units. An effective response requires a package of coordinated actions, which should vary across localities regarding the spatial-temporal epidemic dynamics of each type of virus and the specific conditions of each provincial unit.

Spatio-temporal seasonal drought patterns in Europe from 1950 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spinoni, Jonathan; Naumann, Gustavo; Vogt, Jürgen

2016-04-01

Drought is one of the natural disasters with severe impacts in Europe, not only in areas which frequently experience water scarcity such as the Mediterranean, but also in temperate or continental climates such as Central and Eastern Europe and even in cold regions such as Scandinavia and Iceland. In this study the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal meteorological droughts in Europe between 1950 and 2015 are investigated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Since the focus is on the analysis of seasonal drought trends, indicators were calculated for 3 monthly accumulation periods. The input variables of precipitation and temperature were derived from E-OBS grids (v11-v12) at a spatial resolution of 0.25°x0.25°. Seasonal trends of drought frequency and severity were analyzed for moderate (SPI or SPEI <-1.0) and extreme (SPI or SPEI <-2.0) events during the periods 1950-2015 and 1981-2015. For the moderate events, results of the SPI analysis (precipitation driven) demonstrate a significant tendency towards less frequent and severe droughts in Northern Europe and Russia, especially in winter and spring; oppositely, an increasing trend is visible in Southern Europe, mainly in spring and summer. According to the SPEI analysis (precipitation and temperature driven) Northern Europe shows wetting patterns, while Southern and Eastern Europe show a more remarkable drying tendency, especially in summer and autumn for drought frequency and in every season for drought severity. The evolution towards drier conditions is more relevant from 1981 onwards, both in terms of frequency and severity. This is especially true for Central Europe in spring, for the Mediterranean in summer, and for Eastern Europe in autumn. Extreme events follow similar patterns, but in autumn no spatially coherent trend can be found.

The spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Canada and their connections to large-scale climate patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Gan, T. Y.; Tan, X.

2017-12-01

In the past few decades, there have been more extreme climate events around the world, and Canada has also suffered from numerous extreme precipitation events. In this paper, trend analysis, change point analysis, probability distribution function, principal component analysis and wavelet analysis were used to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme precipitation in Canada. Ten extreme precipitation indices were calculated using long-term daily precipitation data from 164 gauging stations. Several large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific-North American (PNA), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were selected to analyze the relationships between extreme precipitation and climate indices. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), specific humidity, and surface temperature were employed to investigate the potential causes of the trends.The results show statistically significant positive trends for most indices, which indicate increasing extreme precipitation. The majority of indices display more increasing trends along the southern border of Canada while decreasing trends dominate in the central Canadian Prairies (CP). In addition, strong connections are found between the extreme precipitation and climate indices and the effects of climate pattern differ for each region. The seasonal CAPE, specific humidity, and temperature are found to be closely related to Canadian extreme precipitation.

Temporal and spatial characteristics of annual and seasonal rainfall in Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngongondo, Cosmo; Xu, Chong-Yu; Gottschalk, Lars; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Alemaw, Berhanu

2010-05-01

An understanding of the temporal and spatial characteristics of rainfall is central to water resources planning and management. However, such information is often limited in many developing countries like Malawi. In an effort to bridge the information gap, this study examined the temporal and spatial charecteristics of rainfall in Malawi. Rainfall readings from 42 stations across Malawi from 1960 to 2006 were analysed at monthly, annual and seasonal scales. The Malawian rainfall season lasts from November to April. The data were firstly subjected to quality checks through the cumulative deviations test and the Standard Normal Homogeinity Test (SNHT). Monthly distribution in a typical year, called heterogeneity, was investigated using the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI). Further, normalized precipitation anomaly series of annual rainfall series (AR) and the PCI (APCI) were used to test for interannual rainfall variability. Spatial variability was characterised by fitting the Spatial Correlation function (SCF). The nonparametric Mann-Kendall statistic was used to investigate the temporal trends of the various rainfall variables. The results showed that 40 of the stations passed both data quality tests. For the two stations that failed, the data were adjusted using nearby stations. Annual and seasonal rainfall were found to be characterised by high spatial variation. The country mean annual rainfall was 1095 mm with mean interannual variability of 26%. The highland areas to the north and southeast of the country exhibited the highest rainfall and lowest interannual variability. Lowest rainfall coupled with high interannual variability was found in the Lower Shire basin, in the southern part of Malawi. This simillarity is the pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall should be expected because all stations had over 90% of their observed annual rainfall in the six month period between November and April. Monthly rainfall was found to be highly variable both temporally and spatially. None of the stations have stable monthly rainfall regimes (mean PCI of less than 10). Stations with the highest mean rainfall were found to have a lower interannual variability. The rainfall stations showed low spatial correlations for annual, monthly as well as seasonal timescales indicating that the data may not be suitable for spatial interpolation. However, some structure (i.e. lower correlation with distance) could be observed when aggregating the data at 50 mile intervals. The annual and seasonal rainfall series were dominated by negative trends. The spatial distribution of the trends can be described as heterogeneous, although most of the stations in the southern region have negative trends. At the monthly timescale, 37 of the stations show a negative trend with four of the stations, all in the south, showing significant negative trends. On the other hand, only 5 stations show positive trends with only one significant trend in the south. Keywords: Malawi, rainfall trends, spatial variation

Surface temperature patterns in complex terrain: Daily variations and long-term change in the central Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lundquist, J.D.; Cayan, D.R.

2007-01-01

A realistic description of how temperatures vary with elevation is crucial for ecosystem studies and for models of basin-scale snowmelt and spring streamflow. This paper explores surface temperature variability using temperature data from an array of 37 sensors, called the Yosemite network, which traverses both slopes of the Sierra Nevada in the vicinity of Yosemite National Park, California. These data indicate that a simple lapse rate is often a poor description of the spatial temperature structure. Rather, the spatial pattern of temperature over the Yosemite network varies considerably with synoptic conditions. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) were used to identify the dominant spatial temperature patterns and how they vary in time. Temporal variations of these surface temperature patterns were correlated with large-scale weather conditions, as described by National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis data. Regression equations were used to downscale larger-scale weather parameters, such as Reanalysis winds and pressure, to the surface temperature structure over the Yosemite network. These relationships demonstrate that strong westerly winds are associated with relatively warmer temperatures on the east slope and cooler temperatures on the west slope of the Sierra, and weaker westerly winds are associated with the opposite pattern. Reanalysis data from 1948 to 2005 indicate weakening westerlies over this time period, a trend leading to relatively cooler temperatures on the east slope over decadal timescale's. This trend also appears in long-term observations and demonstrates the need to consider topographic effects when examining long-term changes in mountain regions. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Evaluation of CLM4 Solar Radiation Partitioning Scheme Using Remote Sensing and Site Level FPAR Datasets

DOE PAGES

Wang, Kai; Mao, Jiafu; Dickinson, Robert; ...

2013-06-05

This paper examines a land surface solar radiation partitioning scheme, i.e., that of the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) with coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles. Taking advantage of a unique 30-year fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) dataset derived from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data set, multiple other remote sensing datasets, and site level observations, we evaluated the CLM4 FPAR ’s seasonal cycle, diurnal cycle, long-term trends and spatial patterns. These findings show that the model generally agrees with observations in the seasonal cycle, long-term trends, and spatial patterns,more » but does not reproduce the diurnal cycle. Discrepancies also exist in seasonality magnitudes, peak value months, and spatial heterogeneity. Here, we identify the discrepancy in the diurnal cycle as, due to, the absence of dependence on sun angle in the model. Implementation of sun angle dependence in a one-dimensional (1-D) model is proposed. The need for better relating of vegetation to climate in the model, indicated by long-term trends, is also noted. Evaluation of the CLM4 land surface solar radiation partitioning scheme using remote sensing and site level FPAR datasets provides targets for future development in its representation of this naturally complicated process.« less

Dynamic Assessment on the Landscape Patterns and Spatio-temporal Change in the mainstream of Tarim River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hui; Xue, Lianqing; Yang, Changbing; Chen, Xinfang; Zhang, Luochen; Wei, Guanghui

2018-01-01

The Tarim River (TR), as the longest inland river at an arid area in China, is a typical regions of vegetation variation research and plays a crucial role in the sustainable development of regional ecological environment. In this paper, the newest dataset of MODND1M NDVI, at a resolution of 500m, were applied to calculate vegetation index in growing season during the period 2000-2015. Using a vegetation coverage index, a trend line analysis, and the local spatial autocorrelation analysis, this paper investigated the landscape patterns and spatio-temporal variation of vegetation coverage at regional and pixel scales over mainstream of the Tarim River, Xinjiang. The results showed that (1) The bare land area on both sides of Tarim River appeared to have a fluctuated downward trend and there were two obvious valley values in 2005 and 2012. (2) Spatially, the vegetation coverage improved areas is mostly distributed in upstream and the degraded areas is mainly distributed in the left bank of midstream and the end of Tarim River during 2000-2005. (3) The local spatial auto-correlation analysis revealed that vegetation coverage was spatially positive autocorrelated and spatial concentrated. The high-high self-related areas are mainly distributed in upstream, where vegetation cover are relatively good, and the low-low self-related areas are mostly with lower vegetation cover in the lower reaches of Tarim River.

Precipitation and temperature trends over central Italy (Abruzzo Region): 1951-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scorzini, Anna Rita; Leopardi, Maurizio

2018-02-01

This study analyses spatial and temporal trends of precipitation and temperatures over Abruzzo Region (central Italy), using historical climatic data from a dense observation network. The results show a general, although not significant, negative trend in the regionally averaged annual precipitation (- 1.8% of the yearly mean rainfall per decade). This reduction is particularly evident in winter, especially at mountain stations (average - 3% change/decade). Despite this general decreasing trend, a partial rainfall recovery is observed after the 1980s. Furthermore, the majority of meteorological stations register a significant warming over the last 60 years, (mean annual temperature increase of + 0.15 °C/decade), which reflects a rise in both minimum and maximum temperatures, with the latter generally increasing at a faster rate. Spring and summer are the seasons which contribute most to the general temperature increase, in particular at high elevation sites, which exhibit a more pronounced warming (+ 0.24 °C/decade). However, this tendency has not been uniform over 1951-2012, but it has been characterised by a cooling phenomenon in the first 30 years (1951-1981), followed by an even stronger warming during the last three decades (1982-2012). Finally, correlations between the climatic variables and the dominant teleconnection patterns in the Mediterranean basin are analysed to identify the potential influence of large-scale atmospheric dynamics on observed trends in Abruzzo. The results highlight the dominant role of the East-Atlantic pattern on seasonal temperatures, while more spatially heterogeneous associations, depending on the complex topography of the region, are identified between winter precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, East-Atlantic and East-Atlantic/Western Russian patterns.

Comparing methods of measuring geographic patterns in temporal trends: an application to county-level heart disease mortality in the United States, 1973 to 2010.

PubMed

Vaughan, Adam S; Kramer, Michael R; Waller, Lance A; Schieb, Linda J; Greer, Sophia; Casper, Michele

2015-05-01

To demonstrate the implications of choosing analytical methods for quantifying spatiotemporal trends, we compare the assumptions, implementation, and outcomes of popular methods using county-level heart disease mortality in the United States between 1973 and 2010. We applied four regression-based approaches (joinpoint regression, both aspatial and spatial generalized linear mixed models, and Bayesian space-time model) and compared resulting inferences for geographic patterns of local estimates of annual percent change and associated uncertainty. The average local percent change in heart disease mortality from each method was -4.5%, with the Bayesian model having the smallest range of values. The associated uncertainty in percent change differed markedly across the methods, with the Bayesian space-time model producing the narrowest range of variance (0.0-0.8). The geographic pattern of percent change was consistent across methods with smaller declines in the South Central United States and larger declines in the Northeast and Midwest. However, the geographic patterns of uncertainty differed markedly between methods. The similarity of results, including geographic patterns, for magnitude of percent change across these methods validates the underlying spatial pattern of declines in heart disease mortality. However, marked differences in degree of uncertainty indicate that Bayesian modeling offers substantially more precise estimates. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal trends from an air quality sensor network near a heavily trafficked intersection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlando, P.; Vo, D.; Giossi, C.; George, L.

2017-12-01

With the world-wide increase in urbanization and the increasing usage of combustion vehicles in urban areas, traffic-related air pollution is a growing health hazard. However, there are limited studies that examine the spatial and temporal impacts of traffic-related pollutants within cities. In particular, there are few studies that look at traffic management and its potential for pollution mitigation. In a previous study we examined roadway pollution and traffic parameters with one roadway station instrumented with standard measurement instruments. With the advent of low-cost air pollution sensors, we have expanded our work by observing multiple sites within a neighborhood to understand spatial and temporal exposures. We have deployed a high-density sensor network around urban arterial corridors in SE Portland, Oregon. This network consisted of ten nodes measuring CO, NO, NO2 and O3, and ten nodes measuring CO, CO2, VOC and PM2.5. The co-location of standard measurement instruments provided insight towards the utility of our low-cost sensor network, as the different nodes varied in cost, and potentially in quality. We have identified near-real-time temporal trends and local-scale spatial patterns during the summer of 2017. Meteorological and traffic data were included to further characterize these patterns, exploring the potential for pollution mitigation.

Long-Term Trends, Variability and Extremes of In Situ Sea Surface Temperature Measured Along the Eastern Adriatic Coast and its Relationship to Hemispheric Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grbec, Branka; Matić, Frano; Beg Paklar, Gordana; Morović, Mira; Popović, Ružica; Vilibić, Ivica

2018-02-01

This paper examines long-term series of in situ sea surface temperature (SST) data measured at nine coastal and one open sea stations along the eastern Adriatic Sea for the period 1959-2015. Monthly and yearly averages were used to document SST trends and variability, while clustering and connections to hemispheric indices were achieved by applying the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) method. Both PCA and SOM revealed the dominance of temporal changes with respect to the effects of spatial differences in SST anomalies, indicating the prevalence of hemispheric processes over local dynamics, such as bora wind spatial inhomogeneity. SST extremes were connected with blocking atmospheric patterns. A substantial warming between 1979 and 2015, in total exceeding 1 °C, was preceded by a period with a negative SST trend, implying strong multidecadal variability in the Adriatic. The strongest connection was found between yearly SST and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, while North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic/West Russia (EAWR) patterns were found to also affect February SST values. Quantification of the Adriatic SST and their connection to hemispheric indices allow for more precise projections of future SST, considered to be rather important for Adriatic thermohaline circulation, biogeochemistry and fisheries, and sensitive to ongoing climate change.

The Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Air Pollution in China from 2001–2014

PubMed Central

Bao, Junzhe; Yang, Xiping; Zhao, Zhiyuan; Wang, Zhenkun; Yu, Chuanhua; Li, Xudong

2015-01-01

To provide some useful information about the control of air pollution in China, we studied the spatial-temporal characteristics of air pollution in China from 2001–2014. First, we drew several line charts and histograms of the Air Pollution Index (API) and Air Quality Index (AQI) of 31 capital cities and municipalities to research the distribution across different times and cities; then, we researched the spatial clustering of API and AQI; finally, we examined the shift of the gravity center of API and AQI in different years and months. The API values had a decreasing trend: the high values had a clustering trend in some northern cities, and the low values had a clustering trend in some southern cities. The AQI values were relatively low, from 15:00–17:00 during the day. The gravity center of API had a trend of moving south from 2001–2003, then fluctuated in an unordered pattern and moved north in the winter. The AQI gravity center did not have a regular shift during different months. In conclusion, the government should take action to mitigate air pollution in some typical cities, as well as air pollution during the winter. PMID:26694427

Trends in LST over the peninsular Spain as derived from the AVHRR imagery data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khorchani, Makki; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Garcia, Monica; Martin-Hernandez, Natalia; Peña-Gallardo, Marina; El Kenawy, Ahmed; Domínguez-Castro, Fernando

2018-07-01

This study analyzes the spatio-temporal variability and trends of land surface temperature (LST) over peninsular Spain, considering all the available historical satellite imagery data from the NOAA-AVHRR product from July 1981 to June 2015 and explores whether changes in LST are related to the observed changes in air temperature, solar radiation and land cover. We found that LST showed a significant increase between 1982 and 2014, with an average increase on the order of 0.71 °C decade-1, being stronger during summertime (1.53 °C decade-1). The results also indicate a strong spatial coherence between LST and NDVI changes. The areas that experienced an increase in the LST were spatially consistent with those areas with no changes or even a dominant decrease in vegetation coverage. In addition, the strong increase of LST is coherent with observations of the recent radiative forcing affecting Spain, particularly during summertime. The confidence of the obtained LST trends during summer is also reinforced by the spatial differences recorded in trends, in addition to the differences found between land cover types. Specifically, the magnitude of this increase was much higher in the dryland non-permanent agricultural areas, which are usually harvested during summer, when soil is dominantly nude. In contrast, in well-developed forests, the magnitude of LST was much lower. Our results on the observed LST trends and their spatial patterns can contribute to better understanding of the recent eco-hydrological processes in peninsular Spain.

Evaluating the spatiotemporal variations of water budget across China over 1951-2006 using IBIS model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Wei, X.; Peng, C.; Fang, X.; Liu, S.; Zhou, G.; Yu, S.; Ju, W.

2010-01-01

The Integrated Biosphere Simulator is used to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of the crucial hydrological variables [run-off and actual evapotranspiration (AET)] of the water balance across China for the period 1951–2006 including a precipitation analysis. Results suggest three major findings. First, simulated run-off captured 85% of the spatial variability and 80% of the temporal variability for 85 hydrological gauges across China. The mean relative errors were within 20% for 66% of the studied stations and within 30% for 86% of the stations. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients indicated that the quantity pattern of run-off was also captured acceptably except for some watersheds in southwestern and northwestern China. The possible reasons for underestimation of run-off in the Tibetan plateau include underestimation of precipitation and uncertainties in other meteorological data due to complex topography, and simplified representations of the soil depth attribute and snow processes in the model. Second, simulated AET matched reasonably with estimated values calculated as the residual of precipitation and run-off for watersheds controlled by the hydrological gauges. Finally, trend analysis based on the Mann–Kendall method indicated that significant increasing and decreasing patterns in precipitation appeared in the northwest part of China and the Yellow River region, respectively. Significant increasing and decreasing trends in AET were detected in the Southwest region and the Yangtze River region, respectively. In addition, the Southwest region, northern China (including the Heilongjiang, Liaohe, and Haihe Basins), and the Yellow River Basin showed significant decreasing trends in run-off, and the Zhemin hydrological region showed a significant increasing trend.

Salting our freshwater lakes.

PubMed

Dugan, Hilary A; Bartlett, Sarah L; Burke, Samantha M; Doubek, Jonathan P; Krivak-Tetley, Flora E; Skaff, Nicholas K; Summers, Jamie C; Farrell, Kaitlin J; McCullough, Ian M; Morales-Williams, Ana M; Roberts, Derek C; Ouyang, Zutao; Scordo, Facundo; Hanson, Paul C; Weathers, Kathleen C

2017-04-25

The highest densities of lakes on Earth are in north temperate ecosystems, where increasing urbanization and associated chloride runoff can salinize freshwaters and threaten lake water quality and the many ecosystem services lakes provide. However, the extent to which lake salinity may be changing at broad spatial scales remains unknown, leading us to first identify spatial patterns and then investigate the drivers of these patterns. Significant decadal trends in lake salinization were identified using a dataset of long-term chloride concentrations from 371 North American lakes. Landscape and climate metrics calculated for each site demonstrated that impervious land cover was a strong predictor of chloride trends in Northeast and Midwest North American lakes. As little as 1% impervious land cover surrounding a lake increased the likelihood of long-term salinization. Considering that 27% of large lakes in the United States have >1% impervious land cover around their perimeters, the potential for steady and long-term salinization of these aquatic systems is high. This study predicts that many lakes will exceed the aquatic life threshold criterion for chronic chloride exposure (230 mg L -1 ), stipulated by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in the next 50 y if current trends continue.

Race and Space in the 1990s: Changes in the Geographic Scale of Racial Residential Segregation, 1990-2000

PubMed Central

Reardon, Sean F.; Farrell, Chad R.; Matthews, Stephen A.; O'Sullivan, David; Bischoff, Kendra; Firebaugh, Glenn

2014-01-01

We use newly developed methods of measuring spatial segregation across a range of spatial scales to assess changes in racial residential segregation patterns in the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas from 1990 to 2000. Our results point to three notable trends in segregation from 1990 to 2000: 1) Hispanic-white and Asian-white segregation levels increased at both micro- and macro-scales; 2) black-white segregation declined at a micro-scale, but was unchanged at a macro-scale; and 3) for all three racial groups and for almost all metropolitan areas, macro-scale segregation accounted for more of the total metropolitan area segregation in 2000 than in 1990. Our examination of the variation in these trends among the metropolitan areas suggests that Hispanic-white and Asian-white segregation changes have been driven largely by increases in macro-scale segregation resulting from the rapid growth of the Hispanic and Asian populations in central cities. The changes in black-white segregation, in contrast, appear to be driven by the continuation of a 30-year trend in declining micro-segregation, coupled with persistent and largely stable patterns of macro-segregation. PMID:19569292

Exploring the effects of spatial autocorrelation when identifying key drivers of wildlife crop-raiding.

PubMed

Songhurst, Anna; Coulson, Tim

2014-03-01

Few universal trends in spatial patterns of wildlife crop-raiding have been found. Variations in wildlife ecology and movements, and human spatial use have been identified as causes of this apparent unpredictability. However, varying spatial patterns of spatial autocorrelation (SA) in human-wildlife conflict (HWC) data could also contribute. We explicitly explore the effects of SA on wildlife crop-raiding data in order to facilitate the design of future HWC studies. We conducted a comparative survey of raided and nonraided fields to determine key drivers of crop-raiding. Data were subsampled at different spatial scales to select independent raiding data points. The model derived from all data was fitted to subsample data sets. Model parameters from these models were compared to determine the effect of SA. Most methods used to account for SA in data attempt to correct for the change in P-values; yet, by subsampling data at broader spatial scales, we identified changes in regression estimates. We consequently advocate reporting both model parameters across a range of spatial scales to help biological interpretation. Patterns of SA vary spatially in our crop-raiding data. Spatial distribution of fields should therefore be considered when choosing the spatial scale for analyses of HWC studies. Robust key drivers of elephant crop-raiding included raiding history of a field and distance of field to a main elephant pathway. Understanding spatial patterns and determining reliable socio-ecological drivers of wildlife crop-raiding is paramount for designing mitigation and land-use planning strategies to reduce HWC. Spatial patterns of HWC are complex, determined by multiple factors acting at more than one scale; therefore, studies need to be designed with an understanding of the effects of SA. Our methods are accessible to a variety of practitioners to assess the effects of SA, thereby improving the reliability of conservation management actions.

No growth stimulation of Canada’s boreal forest under half-century of combined warming and CO2 fertilization

PubMed Central

Girardin, Martin P.; Hogg, Edward H.; Kurz, Werner; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Metsaranta, Juha M.; de Jong, Rogier; Frank, David C.; Esper, Jan; Büntgen, Ulf; Guo, Xiao Jing; Bhatti, Jagtar

2016-01-01

Considerable evidence exists that current global temperatures are higher than at any time during the past millennium. However, the long-term impacts of rising temperatures and associated shifts in the hydrological cycle on the productivity of ecosystems remain poorly understood for mid to high northern latitudes. Here, we quantify species-specific spatiotemporal variability in terrestrial aboveground biomass stem growth across Canada’s boreal forests from 1950 to the present. We use 873 newly developed tree-ring chronologies from Canada’s National Forest Inventory, representing an unprecedented degree of sampling standardization for a large-scale dendrochronological study. We find significant regional- and species-related trends in growth, but the positive and negative trends compensate each other to yield no strong overall trend in forest growth when averaged across the Canadian boreal forest. The spatial patterns of growth trends identified in our analysis were to some extent coherent with trends estimated by remote sensing, but there are wide areas where remote-sensing information did not match the forest growth trends. Quantifications of tree growth variability as a function of climate factors and atmospheric CO2 concentration reveal strong negative temperature and positive moisture controls on spatial patterns of tree growth rates, emphasizing the ecological sensitivity to regime shifts in the hydrological cycle. An enhanced dependence of forest growth on soil moisture during the late-20th century coincides with a rapid rise in summer temperatures and occurs despite potential compensating effects from increased atmospheric CO2 concentration. PMID:27956624

Spatial patterns of ecosystem carbon residence time and NPP-driven carbon uptake in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Tao; Luo, Yiqi

2008-09-01

Ecosystem carbon (C) uptake is determined largely by C residence times and increases in net primary production (NPP). Therefore, evaluation of C uptake at a regional scale requires knowledge on spatial patterns of both residence times and NPP increases. In this study, we first applied an inverse modeling method to estimate spatial patterns of C residence times in the conterminous United States. Then we combined the spatial patterns of estimated residence times with a NPP change trend to assess the spatial patterns of regional C uptake in the United States. The inverse analysis was done by using the genetic algorithm and was based on 12 observed data sets of C pools and fluxes. Residence times were estimated by minimizing the total deviation between modeled and observed values. Our results showed that the estimated C residence times were highly heterogeneous over the conterminous United States, with most of the regions having values between 15 and 65 years; and the averaged C residence time was 46 years. The estimated C uptake for the whole conterminous United States was 0.15 P g C a-1. Large portions of the taken C were stored in soil for grassland and cropland (47-70%) but in plant pools for forests and woodlands (73-82%). The proportion of C uptake in soil was found to be determined primarily by C residence times and be independent of the magnitude of NPP increase. Therefore, accurate estimation of spatial patterns of C residence times is crucial for the evaluation of terrestrial ecosystem C uptake.

[Assessment on ecological security spatial differences of west areas of Liaohe River based on GIS].

PubMed

Wang, Geng; Wu, Wei

2005-09-01

Ecological security assessment and early warning research have spatiality; non-linearity; randomicity, it is needed to deal with much spatial information. Spatial analysis and data management are advantages of GIS, it can define distribution trend and spatial relations of environmental factors, and show ecological security pattern graphically. The paper discusses the method of ecological security spatial differences of west areas of Liaohe River based on GIS and ecosystem non-health. First, studying on pressure-state-response (P-S-R) assessment indicators system, investigating in person and gathering information; Second, digitizing the river, applying fuzzy AHP to put weight, quantizing and calculating by fuzzy comparing; Last, establishing grid data-base; expounding spatial differences of ecological security by GIS Interpolate and Assembly.

Spatial and temporal variation in the abundance of Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in nine European countries.

PubMed

Cuéllar, Ana Carolina; Kjær, Lene Jung; Kirkeby, Carsten; Skovgard, Henrik; Nielsen, Søren Achim; Stockmarr, Anders; Andersson, Gunnar; Lindstrom, Anders; Chirico, Jan; Lühken, Renke; Steinke, Sonja; Kiel, Ellen; Gethmann, Jörn; Conraths, Franz J; Larska, Magdalena; Hamnes, Inger; Sviland, Ståle; Hopp, Petter; Brugger, Katharina; Rubel, Franz; Balenghien, Thomas; Garros, Claire; Rakotoarivony, Ignace; Allène, Xavier; Lhoir, Jonathan; Chavernac, David; Delécolle, Jean-Claude; Mathieu, Bruno; Delécolle, Delphine; Setier-Rio, Marie-Laure; Venail, Roger; Scheid, Bethsabée; Chueca, Miguel Ángel Miranda; Barceló, Carlos; Lucientes, Javier; Estrada, Rosa; Mathis, Alexander; Tack, Wesley; Bødker, Rene

2018-02-27

Biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are vectors of bluetongue virus (BTV), African horse sickness virus and Schmallenberg virus (SBV). Outbreaks of both BTV and SBV have affected large parts of Europe. The spread of these diseases depends largely on vector distribution and abundance. The aim of this analysis was to identify and quantify major spatial patterns and temporal trends in the distribution and seasonal variation of observed Culicoides abundance in nine countries in Europe. We gathered existing Culicoides data from Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Poland. In total, 31,429 Culicoides trap collections were available from 904 ruminant farms across these countries between 2007 and 2013. The Obsoletus ensemble was distributed widely in Europe and accounted for 83% of all 8,842,998 Culicoides specimens in the dataset, with the highest mean monthly abundance recorded in France, Germany and southern Norway. The Pulicaris ensemble accounted for only 12% of the specimens and had a relatively southerly and easterly spatial distribution compared to the Obsoletus ensemble. Culicoides imicola Kieffer was only found in Spain and the southernmost part of France. There was a clear spatial trend in the accumulated annual abundance from southern to northern Europe, with the Obsoletus ensemble steadily increasing from 4000 per year in southern Europe to 500,000 in Scandinavia. The Pulicaris ensemble showed a very different pattern, with an increase in the accumulated annual abundance from 1600 in Spain, peaking at 41,000 in northern Germany and then decreasing again toward northern latitudes. For the two species ensembles and C. imicola, the season began between January and April, with later start dates and increasingly shorter vector seasons at more northerly latitudes. We present the first maps of seasonal Culicoides abundance in large parts of Europe covering a gradient from southern Spain to northern Scandinavia. The identified temporal trends and spatial patterns are useful for planning the allocation of resources for international prevention and surveillance programmes in the European Union.

Collective behavior in the spatial spreading of obesity

PubMed Central

Gallos, Lazaros K.; Barttfeld, Pablo; Havlin, Shlomo; Sigman, Mariano; Makse, Hernán A.

2012-01-01

Obesity prevalence is increasing in many countries at alarming levels. A difficulty in the conception of policies to reverse these trends is the identification of the drivers behind the obesity epidemics. Here, we implement a spatial spreading analysis to investigate whether obesity shows spatial correlations, revealing the effect of collective and global factors acting above individual choices. We find a regularity in the spatial fluctuations of their prevalence revealed by a pattern of scale-free long-range correlations. The fluctuations are anomalous, deviating in a fundamental way from the weaker correlations found in the underlying population distribution indicating the presence of collective behavior, i.e., individual habits may have negligible influence in shaping the patterns of spreading. Interestingly, we find the same scale-free correlations in economic activities associated with food production. These results motivate future interventions to investigate the causality of this relation providing guidance for the implementation of preventive health policies. PMID:22822425

Collective behavior in the spatial spreading of obesity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallos, Lazaros K.; Barttfeld, Pablo; Havlin, Shlomo; Sigman, Mariano; Makse, Hernán A.

2012-06-01

Obesity prevalence is increasing in many countries at alarming levels. A difficulty in the conception of policies to reverse these trends is the identification of the drivers behind the obesity epidemics. Here, we implement a spatial spreading analysis to investigate whether obesity shows spatial correlations, revealing the effect of collective and global factors acting above individual choices. We find a regularity in the spatial fluctuations of their prevalence revealed by a pattern of scale-free long-range correlations. The fluctuations are anomalous, deviating in a fundamental way from the weaker correlations found in the underlying population distribution indicating the presence of collective behavior, i.e., individual habits may have negligible influence in shaping the patterns of spreading. Interestingly, we find the same scale-free correlations in economic activities associated with food production. These results motivate future interventions to investigate the causality of this relation providing guidance for the implementation of preventive health policies.

Flexural subsidence and basement tectonics of the Cretaceous Western Interior basin, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, Ming; Nummedal, Dag

1995-02-01

The flexural subsidence history recorded in Cenomanian to early Campanian (97 to 80 Ma) strata in the Cretaceous U.S. Western Interior basin was studied with two-dimensional flexural backstripping techniques. Results indicate that the flexural subsidence resulting from thrust loading was superimposed on epeirogenic subsidence in the foreland basin. The flexural component exhibits significant spatial and temporal variations along both the strike and dip relative to the Sevier thrust belt. The greatest cumulative subsidence occurred in southwestern Wyoming and northern Utah. Concurrent subsidence in northwestern Montana and southern Utah was insignificant. Temporal trends in subsidence also show a distinct regional pattern. From the Cenomanian to late Turonian (97 to 90 Ma), subsidence rates were high in Utah and much lower in Wyoming and Montana. In contrast, during the Coniacian and Santonian (90 to 85 Ma) subsidence accelerated rapidly in Wyoming, increased slightly in Montana, and decreased in Utah. We suggest that these spatially and temporally varying subsidence patterns reflect the interplay of several geodynamic factors, including: (1) temporal and spatial variation in emplacement of the thrust loads, (2) segmentation of the basement into adjacent blocks with different rheological properties, (3) reactivation of basement fault trends, and (4) regional dynamic topographic effects.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rafique, Rashid; Zhao, Fang; de Jong, Rogier

The net primary productivity (NPP) is commonly used for understanding the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems and their role in carbon cycle. We used a combination of the most recent NDVI and model–based NPP estimates (from five models of the TRENDY project) for the period 1982-2012, to study the role of terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle under the prevailing climate conditions. We found that 80% and 67% of the global land area showed positive NPP and NDVI values, respectively, for this period. The global NPP was estimated to be about 63 Pg C y -1, with an increase of 0.214 Pgmore » C y -1 y -1. Similarly, the global mean NDVI was estimated to be 0.33, with an increasing trend of 0.00041 y-1. The spatial patterns of NPP and NDVI demonstrated substantial variability, especially at the regional level, for most part of the globe. However, on temporal scale, both global NPP and NDVI showed a corresponding pattern of increase (decrease) for the duration of this study except for few years (e.g. 1990 and 1995-98). Generally, the Northern Hemisphere showed stronger NDVI and NPP increasing trends over time compared to the Southern Hemisphere; however, NDVI showed larger trends in Temperate regions while NPP showed larger trends in Boreal regions. Among the five models, the maximum and minimum NPP were produced by JULES (72.4 Pg C y -1) and LPJ (53.72 Pg C y -1) models, respectively. At latitudinal level, the NDVI and NPP ranges were ~0.035 y -1 to ~-0.016 y -1 and ~0.10 Pg C y -1 y -1 to ~-0.047 Pg C y -1 y -1, respectively. Overall, the results of this study suggest that the modeled NPP generally correspond to the NDVI trends in the temporal dimension. Lastly, the significant variability in spatial patterns of NPP and NDVI trends points to a need for research to understand the causes of these discrepancies between molded and observed ecosystem dynamics, and the carbon cycle.« less

Spatial and seasonal patterns in climate change, temperatures, and precipitation across the United States.

PubMed

Portmann, Robert W; Solomon, Susan; Hegerl, Gabriele C

2009-05-05

Changes in climate during the 20th century differ from region to region across the United States. We provide strong evidence that spatial variations in US temperature trends are linked to the hydrologic cycle, and we also present unique information on the seasonal and latitudinal structure of the linkage. We show that there is a statistically significant inverse relationship between trends in daily temperature and average daily precipitation across regions. This linkage is most pronounced in the southern United States (30-40 degrees N) during the May-June time period and, to a lesser extent, in the northern United States (40-50 degrees N) during the July-August time period. It is strongest in trends in maximum temperatures (T(max)) and 90th percentile exceedance trends (90PET), and less pronounced in the T(max) 10PET and the corresponding T(min) statistics, and it is robust to changes in analysis period. Although previous studies suggest that areas of increased precipitation may have reduced trends in temperature compared with drier regions, a change in sign from positive to negative trends suggests some additional cause. We show that trends in precipitation may account for some, but not likely all, of the cause point to evidence that shows that dynamical patterns (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, etc.) cannot account for the observed effects during May-June. We speculate that changing aerosols, perhaps related to vegetation changes, and increased strength of the aerosol direct and indirect effect may play a role in the observed linkages between these indices of temperature change and the hydrologic cycle.

PATTERNS OF MERCURY DEPOSITION AND CONCENTRATION IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

EPA Science Inventory

Data from 13 NADP/MDN monitoring sites (1996 -- 2002) and the Underhill (VT) event-based monitoring site (1993 -- 2002) were evaluated for spatial and temporal trends. Recent regional reductions of mercury emissions were not reflected in the mercury concentration or deposition d...

Spatial Patterns of Variability in Antarctic Surface Temperature: Connections to the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwok, Ron; Comiso, Josefino C.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The 17-year (1982-1998) trend in surface temperature shows a general cooling over the Antarctic continent, warming of the sea ice zone, with moderate changes over the oceans. Warming of the peripheral seas is associated with negative trends in the regional sea ice extent. Effects of the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) and the extrapolar Southern Oscillation (SO) on surface temperature are quantified through regression analysis. Positive polarities of the SAM are associated with cold anomalies over most of Antarctica, with the most notable exception of the Antarctic Peninsula. Positive temperature anomalies and ice edge retreat in the Pacific sector are associated with El Nino episodes. Over the past two decades, the drift towards high polarity in the SAM and negative polarity in the SO indices couple to produce a spatial pattern with warmer temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula and peripheral seas, and cooler temperatures over much of East Antarctica.

Terrestrial mosses as biomonitors of atmospheric POPs pollution: a review.

PubMed

Harmens, H; Foan, L; Simon, V; Mills, G

2013-02-01

Worldwide there is concern about the continuing release of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) into the environment. In this study we review the application of mosses as biomonitors of atmospheric deposition of POPs. Examples in the literature show that mosses are suitable organisms to monitor spatial patterns and temporal trends of atmospheric concentrations or deposition of POPs. These examples include polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs), dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs), and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). The majority of studies report on PAHs concentrations in mosses and relative few studies have been conducted on other POPs. So far, many studies have focused on spatial patterns around pollution sources or the concentration in mosses in remote areas such as the polar regions, as an indication of long-range transport of POPs. Very few studies have determined temporal trends or have directly related the concentrations in mosses with measured atmospheric concentrations and/or deposition fluxes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential human impacts of overlapping land-use and climate in a sensitive dryland: a case study of the Colorado Plateau, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Copeland, Stella; Bradford, John B.; Duniway, Michael C.; Schuster, Rudy

2017-01-01

Climate and land-use interactions are likely to affect future environmental and socioeconomic conditions in drylands, which tend to be limited by water resources and prone to land degradation. We characterized the potential for interactions between land-use types and land-use and climate change in a model dryland system, the Colorado Plateau, a region with a history of climatic variability and land-use change. We analyzed the spatial and temporal trends in aridification, land-use, and recreation at the county and 10 km2 grid scales. Our results show that oil and gas development and recreation may interact due to increasing trends and overlapping areas of high intensity. Projections suggest that aridification will impact all vegetation classes, with some of the highest proportional change in the south-east. The results suggest that the rate of change and spatial pattern of land-use in the future may differ from past patterns in land-use scale and intensity.

Analysis of Spatial Pattern and Influencing Factors of E-Commerce

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Chen, J.; Zhang, S.

2017-09-01

This paper aims to study the relationship between e-commerce development and geographical characteristics using data of e-commerce, economy, Internet, express delivery and population from 2011 to 2015. Moran's I model and GWR model are applied to analyze the spatial pattern of E-commerce and its influencing factors. There is a growth trend of e-commerce from west to east, and it is obvious to see that e-commerce development has a space-time clustering, especially around the Yangtze River delta. The comprehensive factors caculated through PCA are described as fundamental social productivity, resident living standard and population sex structure. The first two factors have positive correlation with e-commerce, and the intensity of effect increases yearly. However, the influence of population sex structure on the E-commerce development is not significant. Our results suggest that the clustering of e-commerce has a downward trend and the impact of driving factors on e-commerce is observably distinct from year to year in space.

Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Palecki, M.A.; Betancourt, J.L.

2004-01-01

More than half (52%) of the spatial and temporal variance in multidecadal drought frequency over the conterminous United States is attributable to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An additional 22% of the variance in drought frequency is related to a complex spatial pattern of positive and negative trends in drought occurrence possibly related to increasing Northern Hemisphere temperatures or some other unidirectional climate trend. Recent droughts with broad impacts over the conterminous U.S. (1996, 1999-2002) were associated with North Atlantic warming (positive AMO) and north-eastern and tropical Pacific cooling (negative PDO). Much of the long-term predictability of drought frequency may reside in the multidecadal behavior of the North Atlantic Ocean. Should the current positive AMO (warm North Atlantic) conditions persist into the upcoming decade, we suggest two possible drought scenarios that resemble the continental-scale patterns of the 1930s (positive PDO) and 1950s (negative PDO) drought.

Trends in atmospheric deposition fluxes of sulphur and nitrogen in Czech forests.

PubMed

Hůnová, Iva; Maznová, Jana; Kurfürst, Pavel

2014-01-01

We present the temporal trends and spatial changes of deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Czech forests based on records from long-term monitoring. A statistically significant trend for sulphur was detected at most of the sites measuring for wet, dry, and total deposition fluxes and at many of these the trend was also present for the period after 2000. The spatial pattern of the changes in sulphur deposition flux between 1995 and 2011 shows the decrease over the entire forested area in a wide range of 18.1-0.2 g m(-2) year(-1) with the most pronounced improvement in formerly most impacted regions. Nitrogen still represents a considerable stress in many areas. The value of nitrogen deposition flux of 1 g m(-2) year(-1) is exceeded over a significant portion of the country. On an equivalent basis, the ion ratios of NO3(-)/SO4(2-) and NH4(+)/SO4(2-) in precipitation show significantly increasing trends in time similarly to those of pH. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability. Chapter 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perlwitz, J.; Knutson, T.; Kossin, J. P.; LeGrande, A. N.

2017-01-01

The causes of regional climate trends cannot be understood without considering the impact of variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation and an assessment of the role of internally generated climate variability. There are contributions to regional climate trends from changes in large-scale latitudinal circulation, which is generally organized into three cells in each hemisphere-Hadley cell, Ferrell cell and Polar cell-and which determines the location of subtropical dry zones and midlatitude jet streams. These circulation cells are expected to shift poleward during warmer periods, which could result in poleward shifts in precipitation patterns, affecting natural ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. In addition, regional climate can be strongly affected by non-local responses to recurring patterns (or modes) of variability of the atmospheric circulation or the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. These modes of variability represent preferred spatial patterns and their temporal variation. They account for gross features in variance and for teleconnections which describe climate links between geographically separated regions. Modes of variability are often described as a product of a spatial climate pattern and an associated climate index time series that are identified based on statistical methods like Principal Component Analysis (PC analysis), which is also called Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (EOF analysis), and cluster analysis.

Factors Related to Spatial Patterns of Rural Land Fragmentation in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjelland, Michael E.; Kreuter, Urs P.; Clendenin, George A.; Wilkins, R. Neal; Wu, X. Ben; Afanador, Edith Gonzalez; Grant, William E.

2007-08-01

Fragmentation of family-owned farms and ranches has been identified as the greatest single threat to wildlife habitat, water supply, and the long-term viability of agriculture in Texas. However, an integrative framework for insights into the pathways of land use change has been lacking. The specific objectives of the study are to test the hypotheses that the nonagricultural value (NAV) of rural land is a reliable indicator of trends in land fragmentation and that NAV in Texas is spatially correlated with population density, and to explore the idea that recent changes in property size patterns are better represented by a categorical model than by one that reflects incremental changes. We propose that the State-and-Transition model, developed to describe the dynamics of semi-arid ecosystems, provides an appropriate conceptual framework for characterizing categorical shifts in rural property patterns. Results suggest that changes in population density are spatially correlated with NAV and farm size, and that rural property size is spatially correlated with changes in NAV. With increasing NAV, the proportion of large properties tends to decrease while the area represented by small properties tends to increase. Although a correlation exists between NAV and population density, it is the trend in NAV that appears to be a stronger predictor of land fragmentation. The empirical relationships established herein, viewed within the conceptual framework of the State-and-Transition model, can provide a useful tool for evaluating land use policies for maintaining critical ecosystem services delivered from privately owned land in private land states, such as Texas.

Changing Pattern of Indian Monsoon Extremes: Global and Local Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Subimal; Shastri, Hiteshri; Pathak, Amey; Paul, Supantha

2017-04-01

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) extremes have remained a major topic of discussion in the field of global change and hydro-climatology over the last decade. This attributes to multiple conclusions on changing pattern of extremes along with poor understanding of multiple processes at global and local scales associated with monsoon extremes. At a spatially aggregate scale, when number of extremes in the grids are summed over, a statistically significant increasing trend is observed for both Central India (Goswami et al., 2006) and all India (Rajeevan et al., 2008). However, such a result over Central India does not satisfy flied significance test of increase and no decrease (Krishnamurthy et al., 2009). Statistically rigorous extreme value analysis that deals with the tail of the distribution reveals a spatially non-uniform trend of extremes over India (Ghosh et al., 2012). This results into statistically significant increasing trend of spatial variability. Such an increase of spatial variability points to the importance of local factors such as deforestation and urbanization. We hypothesize that increase of spatial average of extremes is associated with the increase of events occurring over large region, while increase in spatial variability attributes to local factors. A Lagrangian approach based dynamic recycling model reveals that the major contributor of moisture to wide spread extremes is Western Indian Ocean, while land surface also contributes around 25-30% of moisture during the extremes in Central India. We further test the impacts of local urbanization on extremes and find the impacts are more visible over West central, Southern and North East India. Regional atmospheric simulations coupled with Urban Canopy Model (UCM) shows that urbanization intensifies extremes in city areas, but not uniformly all over the city. The intensification occurs over specific pockets of the urban region, resulting an increase in spatial variability even within the city. This also points to the need of setting up multiple weather stations over the city at a finer resolution for better understanding of urban extremes. We conclude that the conventional method of considering large scale factors is not sufficient for analysing the monsoon extremes and characterization of the same needs a blending of both global and local factors. Ghosh, S., Das, D., Kao, S-C. & Ganguly, A. R. Lack of uniform trends but increasing spatial variability in observed Indian rainfall extremes. Nature Clim. Change 2, 86-91 (2012) Goswami, B. N., Venugopal, V., Sengupta, D., Madhusoodanan, M. S. & Xavier, P. K. Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science 314, 1442-1445 (2006). Krishnamurthy, C. K. B., Lall, U. & Kwon, H-H. Changing frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes over India from 1951 to 2003. J. Clim. 22, 4737-4746 (2009). Rajeevan, M., Bhate, J. & Jaswal, A. K. Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall events over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L18707 (2008).

Spatial and Temporal Patterns In Ecohydrological Separation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarvis, S. K.; Barnard, H. R.; Singha, K.; Harmon, R. E.; Szutu, D.

2017-12-01

The model of ecohydrological separation suggests that trees source water from a different subsurface pool than what is contributing to stream flow during dry periods, however diel fluctuations in stream flow and transpiration are tightly coupled. To better understand the mechanism of this coupling, this study examines spatiotemporal patterns in water isotopic relationships between tree, soil, and stream water. Preliminary analysis of data collected in 2015 show a trend in δ18O enrichment in xylem water, suggesting an increased reliance on enriched soil water not flowing to the stream as the growing season progresses, while xylem samples from 2016, a particularly wet year, do not have this trend. Variations in these temporal trends are explored with regard to distance from stream, aspect of hillslope, position in the watershed, size of the tree, and soil depth. Additionally, a near-stream site is examined at high resolution using water isotope data, sap flow, and electrical resistivity surveying to examine soil moisture and water use patterns across the riparian-hillslope transition.

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison

2016-01-01

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

Evaluation of NASA’s MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

DOE PAGES

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; ...

2016-02-03

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. The increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.« less

Precipitation climatology over India: validation with observations and reanalysis datasets and spatial trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishore, P.; Jyothi, S.; Basha, Ghouse; Rao, S. V. B.; Rajeevan, M.; Velicogna, Isabella; Sutterley, Tyler C.

2016-01-01

Changing rainfall patterns have significant effect on water resources, agriculture output in many countries, especially the country like India where the economy depends on rain-fed agriculture. Rainfall over India has large spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the variability in rainfall, spatial-temporal analyses of rainfall have been studied by using 107 (1901-2007) years of daily gridded India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall datasets. Further, the validation of IMD precipitation data is carried out with different observational and different reanalysis datasets during the period from 1989 to 2007. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project data shows similar features as that of IMD with high degree of comparison, whereas Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation data show similar features but with large differences, especially over northwest, west coast and western Himalayas. Spatially, large deviation is observed in the interior peninsula during the monsoon season with National Aeronautics Space Administration-Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA), pre-monsoon with Japanese 25 years Re Analysis (JRA-25), and post-monsoon with climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) reanalysis datasets. Among the reanalysis datasets, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) shows good comparison followed by CFSR, NASA-MERRA, and JRA-25. Further, for the first time, with high resolution and long-term IMD data, the spatial distribution of trends is estimated using robust regression analysis technique on the annual and seasonal rainfall data with respect to different regions of India. Significant positive and negative trends are noticed in the whole time series of data during the monsoon season. The northeast and west coast of the Indian region shows significant positive trends and negative trends over western Himalayas and north central Indian region.

[Spatial regimes: dynamics of intentional homicides in the city of São Paulo between 2000 and 2008].

PubMed

Nery, Marcelo Batista; Peres, Maria Fernanda Tourinho; Cardia, Nancy; Vicentin, Diego; Adorno, Sérgio

2012-12-01

To identify the existence of spatial and temporal patterns in the occurrence of intentional homicides in the municipality of São Paulo (MSP), Brazil, and to discuss the analytical value of taking such patterns into account when designing studies that address the dynamics and factors associated with the incidence of homicides. A longitudinal ecological study was conducted, having as units of analysis 13 205 census tracts and the 96 census districts that congregate these sectors in São Paulo. All intentional homicides reported in the city between 2000 and 2008 were analyzed. The gross homicide rates per 100 000 population was calculated as well as the global and local Bayesian estimates for each census tract during the study period. To verify the possibility of identifying different patterns of the spatial distribution of homicides, we used BoxMap and Moran's I index. The homicide trends in the city of São Paulo in the last decade were not homogeneous and systematic. Instead, seven patterns of spatial distribution were identified; that is, seven spatial regimes for the occurrence of intentional homicides, considering the homicide rates within each census tract as well as the rates in adjacent tracts. These spatial distribution regimes were not contained within the limits of the census tracts and districts. The results show the importance of analyzing the spatial distribution of social phenomena without restriction of political and administrative boundaries.

Vertical land motion controls regional sea level rise patterns on the United States east coast since 1900

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piecuch, C. G.; Huybers, P. J.; Hay, C.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Little, C. M.; Ponte, R. M.; Tingley, M.

2017-12-01

Understanding observed spatial variations in centennial relative sea level trends on the United States east coast has important scientific and societal applications. Past studies based on models and proxies variously suggest roles for crustal displacement, ocean dynamics, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. Here we perform joint Bayesian inference on regional relative sea level, vertical land motion, and absolute sea level fields based on tide gauge records and GPS data. Posterior solutions show that regional vertical land motion explains most (80% median estimate) of the spatial variance in the large-scale relative sea level trend field on the east coast over 1900-2016. The posterior estimate for coastal absolute sea level rise is remarkably spatially uniform compared to previous studies, with a spatial average of 1.4-2.3 mm/yr (95% credible interval). Results corroborate glacial isostatic adjustment models and reveal that meaningful long-period, large-scale vertical velocity signals can be extracted from short GPS records.

Anthropometric geography applied to the analysis of socioeconomic disparities: cohort trends and spatial patterns of height and robustness in 20th-century Spain.

PubMed

Camara, Antonio D; Roman, Joan Garcia

2015-11-01

Anthropometrics have been widely used to study the influence of environmental factors on health and nutritional status. In contrast, anthropometric geography has not often been employed to approximate the dynamics of spatial disparities associated with socioeconomic and demographic changes. Spain exhibited intense disparity and change during the middle decades of the 20 th century, with the result that the life courses of the corresponding cohorts were associated with diverse environmental conditions. This was also true of the Spanish territories. This paper presents insights concerning the relationship between socioeconomic changes and living conditions by combining the analysis of cohort trends and the anthropometric cartography of height and physical build. This analysis is conducted for Spanish male cohorts born 1934-1973 that were recorded in the Spanish military statistics. This information is interpreted in light of region-level data on GDP and infant mortality. Our results show an anthropometric convergence across regions that, nevertheless, did not substantially modify the spatial patterns of robustness, featuring primarily robust northeastern regions and weak Central-Southern regions. These patterns persisted until the 1990s (cohorts born during the 1970s). For the most part, anthropometric disparities were associated with socioeconomic disparities, although the former lessened over time to a greater extent than the latter. Interestingly, the various anthropometric indicators utilized here do not point to the same conclusions. Some discrepancies between height and robustness patterns have been found that moderate the statements from the analysis of cohort height alone regarding the level and evolution of living conditions across Spanish regions.

Can guild- or site-specific contrasts in trends or phenology explain the changed role of the Dutch Wadden Sea for fish?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulp, Ingrid; van der Veer, Henk W.; Walker, Paddy; van Walraven, Lodewijk; Bolle, Loes J.

2017-09-01

The Wadden Sea bordering the Dutch, German and Danish coast, is traditionally a region with important functions for many fish species: as a nursery area for juveniles (marine juveniles), as a feeding area, as a transit to and from fresh water, and resident species complete their whole life cycle there. Because of indications that the importance of the Dutch Wadden Sea has changed drastically for many species during the past decades, we analysed and classified trends of 24 common fish species in the last 45 years, which were assigned to 5 different ecological guilds. Trends were examined for three Wadden Sea regions and compared to trends in the adjacent two North Sea coastal regions. For these analyses we made a combined use of two longterm time series: an annual beamtrawl survey, the Demeral Fish Survey (DFS) with a high spatial but poor seasonal resolution and a fyke series with a high seasonal but poor spatial resolution. We investigated for which species the DFS survey was appropriate for trend analysis, and we evaluated whether a change in timing may contribute to patterns in DFS time trends. Total fish biomass showed a similar pattern in all tidal basins with an increase from 1970 to 1980, a peak in the mid-1980s and a strong decline from 1980 to 2000, with a subsequent stable trend. The pattern in the coastal region deviated especially in the past 10 years, with a further decline along the Dutch Wadden coast and an increase along the mainland coast. Most dramatic declines throughout the Wadden Sea occurred in species belonging to the marine juvenile guild, notably plaice, sole and dab. A declining trend in marine juveniles is on-going in the western part, while it recently stabilised or even increased in the central and eastern part and in the coastal regions. Resident species showed more variable trends in the Wadden Sea with less pronounced directions: both increases and decreases occurred. In the coastal regions, several resident species have increased considerably in the last 15 years, a pattern not observed in the Wadden Sea. Also the size structure of the fish community changed in all regions, with generally the strongest declines in the largest size classes. The combined use of the two surveys showed that for some species the DFS was not timed in the period of peak occurrence. Although the phenology of several species has changed, the DFS survey period still encompasses the peak period of most species.

Resource availability, matrix quality, microclimate, and spatial pattern as predictors of patch use by the Karner blue butterfly

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grundel, R.; Pavlovic, N.B.

2007-01-01

Determination of which aspects of habitat quality and habitat spatial arrangement best account for variation in a species’ distribution can guide management for organisms such as the Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis), a federally endangered subspecies inhabiting savannas of Midwest and Eastern United States. We examined the extent to which three sets of predictors, (1) larval host plant (Lupinus perennis, wild lupine) availability, (2) characteristics of the matrix surrounding host plant patches, and (3) factors affecting a patch’s thermal environment, accounted for variation in lupine patch use by Karner blues at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, Indiana and Fort McCoy, Wisconsin, USA. Each predictor set accounted for 7–13% of variation in patch occupancy by Karner blues at both sites and in larval feeding activity among patches at Indiana Dunes. Patch area, an indicator of host plant availability, was an exception, accounting for 30% of variation in patch occupancy at Indiana Dunes. Spatially structured patterns of patch use across the landscape accounted for 9–16% of variation in patch use and explained more variation in larval feeding activity than did spatial autocorrelation between neighboring patches. Because of this broader spatial trend across sites, a given management action may be more effective in promoting patch use in some portions of the landscape than in others. Spatial trend, resource availability, matrix quality, and microclimate, in general, accounted for similar amounts of variation in patch use and each should be incorporated into habitat management planning for the Karner blue butterfly.

USING GIS TO GENERATE SPATIALLY-BALANCED RANDOM SURVEY DESIGNS FOR NATURAL RESOURCE APPLICATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Sampling of a population is frequently required to understand trends and patterns in natural resource management because financial and time constraints preclude a complete census. A rigorous probability-based survey design specifies where to sample so that inferences from the sam...

Infant mortality evolution in Romania: perspectives from a country in transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burlea, A.-M.; Muntele, I.

2012-04-01

In the last two decades transition was a word used to describe the important mutations that have characterized social and economic structures in Romania. All the changes left their mark on every aspects of life including on population health status, and all modifications were reflected in the evolution of health indicators. Considered one of the most sensitive indicators of living conditions, population health literacy level and healthcare system efficiency infant mortality rate is a negative indicator which reflects the intensity of children deaths before their first anniversary. Based on the current statistical data collected at county level, this research aims to underline the existing spatial differences in Romania at county level, to identify spatial patterns, time trend and to point out the territories that need special attention and a more profound analysis for understanding the causes that are generating them. Using mathematical and statistical methods we have calculated infant mortality for a previous and available period of time (1990 - 2010) and identified a trend influenced by exogenous and endogenous factors. With the help of GIS techniques we have created cartographic material for allowing us an easier identification of spatial disparities. Following the global trend, Romania achieved significant progress in reduction infant mortality. From values that exceeded 26 ‰ at the beginning of the nineties this indicator has continued to diminish until 9.79 ‰ in 2010. But, with all the improvements, value is still double in compare with European Union average. Although characteristic for Romania is the general downward trend, at the county level there can be identified different types of evolution and different spatial pattern. Having the lowest economic development level in the country, Northeast and Southeast counties maintain high values for infant mortality rate. Positive examples are given by Bucharest and some central and western districts, all with socio-economic indicators above the national average. In this context, identification, monitoring and description of infant mortality rate spatial disparities are becoming key points for policy makers and stakeholders as first steps needed for finding the most suitable measures to reduce them, measures tailored for any administrative level in which they occur.

[Temporal and spatial variations of extreme climatic events in Songnen Grassland, Northeast China during 1960-2014].

PubMed

Ma, Qi Yun; Zhang, Ji Quan; Lai, Quan; Zhang, Feng; Dong, Zhen Hua; A, Lu Si

2017-06-18

Fourteen extreme climatic indices related with main regional meteorological disasters and vegetation growth were calculated based on daily data from 13 meteorological stations during 1960-2014 in Songnen Grassland, Northeast China. Then, the variation trend and the spatial and temporal patterns of climatic extreme events were analyzed by using regression analysis, break trend analy-sis, Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator and moving t-test method. The results indicated that summer days (SU25), warm days (TX90P), warm nights (TN90P) and warm spell duration (WSDI) representing extremely high temperatures showed significant increasing trends (P<0.05). Meanwhile, frost days (FD0), cold days (TX10P), cold nights (TN10P) and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) representing extremely low temperatures showed obviously decreasing trends. The magnitudes of changes in cold indices (FD0, TX10P, TN10P and CSDI) were clearly greater than those of warm indices (SU25, TX90P, TN90P and WSDI), and that changes in night indices were larger than those of day indices. Regional climate warming trend was obvious from 1970 to 2009, and the most occurrences of the abrupt changes in these indices were identified in this period. The extreme precipitation indices did not show obvious trend, in general, SDII and CDD experienced a slightly decreasing trend while RX5D, R95P, PRCPTOT and CWD witnessed a mildly increasing trend. It may be concluded that regional climate changed towards warming and slightly wetting in Songnen Grassland. The most sensitive region for extreme temperature was distributed in the south and north region. Additionally, the extreme temperature indices showed clearly spatial difference between the south and the north. As for the spatial variations of extreme precipitation indices, the climate could be characterized by becoming wetter in northern region, and getting drier in southern region, especially in southwestern region with a high drought risk.

Analysing the spatial patterns of erosion scars using point process theory at the coastal chalk cliff of Mesnil-Val, (Normandy, Northern France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohmer, J.; Dewez, D.

2014-09-01

Over the last decade, many cliff erosion studies have focused on frequency-size statistics using inventories of sea cliff retreat sizes. By comparison, only a few paid attention to quantifying the spatial and temporal organisation of erosion scars over a cliff face. Yet, this spatial organisation carries essential information about the external processes and the environmental conditions that promote or initiate sea-cliff instabilities. In this article, we use summary statistics of spatial point process theory as a tool to examine the spatial and temporal pattern of a rockfall inventory recorded with repeated terrestrial laser scanning surveys at the chalk coastal cliff site of Mesnil-Val (Normandy, France). Results show that: (1) the spatial density of erosion scars is specifically conditioned alongshore by the distance to an engineered concrete groin, with an exponential-like decreasing trend, and vertically focused both at wave breaker height and on strong lithological contrasts; (2) small erosion scars (10-3-10-2 m3) aggregate in clusters within a radius of 5 to 10 m, which suggests some sort of attraction or focused causative process, and disperse above this critical distance; (3) on the contrary, larger erosion scars (10-2-101 m3) tend to disperse above a radius of 1 to 5 m, possibly due to the spreading of successive failures across the cliff face; (4) large scars significantly occur albeit moderately, where previous large rockfalls have occurred during preceeding winter; (5) this temporal trend is not apparent for small events. In conclusion, this study shows, with a worked example, how spatial point process summary statistics are a tool to test and quantify the significance of geomorphological observation organisation.

Analysing the spatial patterns of erosion scars using point process theory at the coastal chalk cliff of Mesnil-Val, Normandy, northern France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohmer, J.; Dewez, T.

2015-02-01

Over the last decade, many cliff erosion studies have focused on frequency-size statistics using inventories of sea cliff retreat sizes. By comparison, only a few paid attention to quantifying the spatial and temporal organisation of erosion scars over a cliff face. Yet, this spatial organisation carries essential information about the external processes and the environmental conditions that promote or initiate sea-cliff instabilities. In this article, we use summary statistics of spatial point process theory as a tool to examine the spatial and temporal pattern of a rockfall inventory recorded with repeated terrestrial laser scanning surveys at the chalk coastal cliff site of Mesnil-Val (Normandy, France). Results show that: (1) the spatial density of erosion scars is specifically conditioned alongshore by the distance to an engineered concrete groyne, with an exponential-like decreasing trend, and vertically focused both at wave breaker height and on strong lithological contrasts; (2) small erosion scars (10-3 to 10-2 m3) aggregate in clusters within a radius of 5 to 10 m, which suggests some sort of attraction or focused causative process, and disperse above this critical distance; (3) on the contrary, larger erosion scars (10-2 to 101 m3) tend to disperse above a radius of 1 to 5 m, possibly due to the spreading of successive failures across the cliff face; (4) large scars significantly occur albeit moderately, where previous large rockfalls have occurred during preceding winter; (5) this temporal trend is not apparent for small events. In conclusion, this study shows, with a worked example, how spatial point process summary statistics are a tool to test and quantify the significance of geomorphological observation organisation.

Spatial patterns of giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) in two sequoia groves in Sequoia National Park, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, Thomas J.

1993-01-01

Although Muir Grove and Castle Creek Grove are similar in area, elevation, and number of giant sequoias, various spatial pattern analysis techniques showed that they had dissimilar spatial patterns for similar-sized trees. Two-dimensional and transect two-term local quadrat variance techniques detected general trends in the spatial patterns of different-sized trees, detected multiple-scale patterns within individual size classes, and provided information on the scale and intensity of patches of individual size classes of trees in Muir and Castle Creek groves. In Muir Grove, midsized sequoias (1.5 to 2.4 m DBH classes) had major pattern scales 350–450 m in diameter, whereas the same-sized trees in Castle Creek Grove had pattern scales >1000 m in diameter. Many size classes of trees had minor patches superimposed on larger scale patterns in both groves. There may be different recruitment patterns in core (i.e., central) areas compared with peripheral areas of sequoia groves; core areas of both groves had more small live sequoias and dead sequoias than peripheral areas of the groves. Higher densities of sequoias and, perhaps, more rapid turnover of individuals in core areas may indicate (i) differences in disturbance histories and favorability of microsites in the core and peripheral areas of groves; (ii) different responses to disturbance due to shifts in the species composition of the stand and thus, the relative influences of intra- to inter-specific competition; or (iii) slower growth or lower survivorship rates in marginal habitat (i.e., peripheral areas).

Spatial and temporal patterns of chronic wasting disease: Fine-scale mapping of a wildlife epidemic in Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osnas, E.E.; Heisey, D.M.; Rolley, R.E.; Samuel, M.D.

2009-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases threaten wildlife populations and human health. Understanding the spatial distributions of these new diseases is important for disease management and policy makers; however, the data are complicated by heterogeneities across host classes, sampling variance, sampling biases, and the space-time epidemic process. Ignoring these issues can lead to false conclusions or obscure important patterns in the data, such as spatial variation in disease prevalence. Here, we applied hierarchical Bayesian disease mapping methods to account for risk factors and to estimate spatial and temporal patterns of infection by chronic wasting disease (CWD) in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) of Wisconsin, USA. We found significant heterogeneities for infection due to age, sex, and spatial location. Infection probability increased with age for all young deer, increased with age faster for young males, and then declined for some older animals, as expected from disease-associated mortality and age-related changes in infection risk. We found that disease prevalence was clustered in a central location, as expected under a simple spatial epidemic process where disease prevalence should increase with time and expand spatially. However, we could not detect any consistent temporal or spatiotemporal trends in CWD prevalence. Estimates of the temporal trend indicated that prevalence may have decreased or increased with nearly equal posterior probability, and the model without temporal or spatiotemporal effects was nearly equivalent to models with these effects based on deviance information criteria. For maximum interpretability of the role of location as a disease risk factor, we used the technique of direct standardization for prevalence mapping, which we develop and describe. These mapping results allow disease management actions to be employed with reference to the estimated spatial distribution of the disease and to those host classes most at risk. Future wildlife epidemiology studies should employ hierarchical Bayesian methods to smooth estimated quantities across space and time, account for heterogeneities, and then report disease rates based on an appropriate standardization. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Arctic tundra greening and browning (2007-2013) based on satellite-observed solar-induced fluorescence data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, D.; Su, F.; Wang, J.

2017-12-01

More accurate evaluation of the state of Arctic tundra vegetation is important for our understanding of Arctic and global systems. Arctic tundra greening has been reported, increasing vegetation cover and productivity in many regions, but browning has been also reported, based on satellite-observed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 2011 until recently. Here we demonstrate a satellite-based method of estimating tundra greenness trend. A more direct indicator of greenness (spatially downscaling solar-induced fluorescence, SIF) was used to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of Arctic tundra greenness trends based on ordinary least square regression (2007-2013). Meanwhile, two other greenness indices were used for the comparison, which were two NDVI products: GIMMS NDVI3g, and MOD13Q1 Collection 6. Generally, the Arctic tundra was not consistently greening, browning also existed. For the spatial trends, the results showed that most parts of the Arctic tundra below 75ºN was browning (-0.0098 mW/m2/sr/nm/year) using SIF, whereas spatially heterogeneous trends (greening or browning) were obtained based on the two NDVI products. For the temporal trends, the greenness value of Eurasia Arctic tundra is higher than Northern America and the whole Arctic tundra for the three greenness indices. From 2010, the Arctic tundra was greening based on MOD13Q1, whereas is browning using GIMMS NDVI3g. However, the Arctic tundra was obviously browning using SIF data. This study demonstrates a way of investigating the variation of Arctic tundra vegetation via new satellite-observed data.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. The increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.« less

Population trends and distribution of Common Murre Uria aalge colonies in Washington, 1996-2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Susan M; Lyons, James E.

2017-01-01

Periodic assessments of population trends and changes in spatial distribution are valuable for managing marine birds and their breeding habitats, particularly when evaluating long-term response to threats such as oil spills, predation pressure, and changing ocean conditions. We evaluated recent trends in abundance and distribution of the Common Murre Uria aalge within Copalis, Quillayute Needles, and Flattery Rocks National Wildlife Refuges, which include all murre colonies in Washington except one, off-refuge, on Tatoosh Island. In 1996-2001 and 2010-2015, aerial photographic surveys were conducted during the incubation phase (mid-June through mid-July) each year. Using images from film (1996-2001) and digital (2010-2015) cameras that included all parts of each colony, we manually counted murres. We estimated population trend as annual percent change in whole-colony counts using an overdispersed Poisson regression model. Overall, numbers of murres counted at breeding colonies in Washington increased by 8.8% per year (95% CI 3.0%-14.9%) during 1996–2015. The overall statewide increase was driven by an increase at colonies in northern Washington of approximately 11% per year (95% CI 4.5%-17.8%). Despite an increasing trend, abundance remains lower than levels in the late 1970s, and the spatial distribution has changed. Colonies in southern Washington - where murres were historically the most abundant - are no longer active, or only minimally so, whereas colonies in the north - which were rarely active in the early 1970s - are now the largest. There was high variability in spatial distribution among years, a pattern that indicates a need for coordinated monitoring and movement studies throughout the California Current System to understand dispersal and colonization. Our results indicate that future management of refuge islands could protect both current and historic colony locations, given the patterns of colony dynamics and the uncertainty about long-term effects of a changing ocean ecosystem and predation pressure on the status of murres.

Spatial heterogeneity of greening and browning between and within bioclimatic zones in northern West Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miles, Victoria V.; Esau, Igor

2016-11-01

Studies of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) have found broad changes in vegetation productivity in high northern latitudes in the past decades, including increases in NDVI (‘greening’) in tundra regions and decreases (‘browning’) in forest regions. The causes of these changes are not well understood but have been attributed to a variety of factors. We use Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite data for 2000-2014 and focus on northern West Siberia—a hot spot of extensive landcover change due to rapid resource development, geomorphic change, climate change and reindeer grazing. The region is relatively little-studied in terms of vegetation productivity patterns and trends. This study examines changes between and within bioclimatic sub-zones and reveals differences between forest and treeless areas and differences in productivity even down to the tree species level. Our results show that only 18% of the total northern West Siberia area had statistically significant changes in productivity, with 8.4% increasing (greening) and 9.6% decreasing (browning). We find spatial heterogeneity in the trends, and contrasting trends both between and within bioclimatic zones. A key finding is the identification of contrasting trends for different species within the same bioclimatic zone. Browning is most prominent in areas of denser tree coverage, and particularly in evergreen coniferous forest with dark (Picea abie, Picea obovata) or light (Pinus sylvestris) evergreen and evergreen-majority mixed forests. In contrast, low density deciduous needle-leaf forest dominated by larch (Larix sibirica), shows a significant increase in productivity, even while neighboring different species show productivity decrease. These results underscore the complexity of the patterns of variability and trends in vegetation productivity, and suggest the need for spatially and thematically detailed studies to better understand the response of different northern forest types and species to climate and environmental change.

Spatio-temporal trends of rainfall across Indian river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisht, Deepak Singh; Chatterjee, Chandranath; Raghuwanshi, Narendra Singh; Sridhar, Venkataramana

2018-04-01

Daily gridded high-resolution rainfall data of India Meteorological Department at 0.25° spatial resolution (1901-2015) was analyzed to detect the trend in seasonal, annual, and maximum cumulative rainfall for 1, 2, 3, and 5 days. The present study was carried out for 85 river basins of India during 1901-2015 and pre- and post-urbanization era, i.e., 1901-1970 and 1971-2015, respectively. Mann-Kendall ( α = 0.05) and Theil-Sen's tests were employed for detecting the trend and percentage of change over the period of time, respectively. Daily extreme rainfall events, above 95 and 99 percentile threshold, were also analyzed to detect any trend in their magnitude and number of occurrences. The upward trend was found for the majority of the sub-basins for 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-day maximum cumulative rainfall during the post-urbanization era. The magnitude of extreme threshold events is also found to be increasing in the majority of the river basins during the post-urbanization era. A 30-year moving window analysis further revealed a widespread upward trend in a number of extreme threshold rainfall events possibly due to urbanization and climatic factors. Overall trends studied against intra-basin trend across Ganga basin reveal the mixed pattern of trends due to inherent spatial heterogeneity of rainfall, therefore, highlighting the importance of scale for such studies.

Cross-taxon congruence and environmental conditions.

PubMed

Toranza, Carolina; Arim, Matías

2010-07-16

Diversity patterns of different taxa typically covary in space, a phenomenon called cross-taxon congruence. This pattern has been explained by the effect of one taxon diversity on taxon diversity, shared biogeographic histories of different taxa, and/or common responses to environmental conditions. A meta-analysis of the association between environment and diversity patterns found that in 83 out of 85 studies, more than 60% of the spatial variability in species richness was related to variables representing energy, water or their interaction. The role of the environment determining taxa diversity patterns leads us to hypothesize that this would explain the observed cross-taxon congruence. However, recent analyses reported the persistence of cross-taxon congruence when environmental effect was statistically removed. Here we evaluate this hypothesis, analyzing the cross-taxon congruence between birds and mammals in the Brazilian Cerrado, and assess the environmental role on the spatial covariation in diversity patterns. We found a positive association between avian and mammal richness and a positive latitudinal trend for both groups in the Brazilian Cerrado. Regression analyses indicated an effect of latitude, PET, and mean temperature over both biological groups. In addition, we show that NDVI was only associated with avian diversity; while the annual relative humidity, was only correlated with mammal diversity. We determined the environmental effects on diversity in a path analysis that accounted for 73% and 76% of the spatial variation in avian and mammal richness. However, an association between avian and mammal diversity remains significant. Indeed, the importance of this link between bird and mammal diversity was also supported by a significant association between birds and mammal spatial autoregressive model residuals. Our study corroborates the main role of environmental conditions on diversity patterns, but suggests that other important mechanisms, which have not been properly evaluated, are involved in the observed cross-taxon congruence. The approaches introduced here indicate that the prevalence of a significant association among taxa, after considering the environmental determinant, could indicate both the need to incorporate additional processes (e.g. biogeographic and evolutionary history or trophic interactions) and/or the existence of a shared trend in detection biases among taxa and regions.

Modeling spatial variation in avian survival and residency probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saracco, James F.; Royle, J. Andrew; DeSante, David F.; Gardner, Beth

2010-01-01

The importance of understanding spatial variation in processes driving animal population dynamics is widely recognized. Yet little attention has been paid to spatial modeling of vital rates. Here we describe a hierarchical spatial autoregressive model to provide spatially explicit year-specific estimates of apparent survival (phi) and residency (pi) probabilities from capture-recapture data. We apply the model to data collected on a declining bird species, Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), as part of a broad-scale bird-banding network, the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. The Wood Thrush analysis showed variability in both phi and pi among years and across space. Spatial heterogeneity in residency probability was particularly striking, suggesting the importance of understanding the role of transients in local populations. We found broad-scale spatial patterning in Wood Thrush phi and pi that lend insight into population trends and can direct conservation and research. The spatial model developed here represents a significant advance over approaches to investigating spatial pattern in vital rates that aggregate data at coarse spatial scales and do not explicitly incorporate spatial information in the model. Further development and application of hierarchical capture-recapture models offers the opportunity to more fully investigate spatiotemporal variation in the processes that drive population changes.

MERCURY DEPOSITIOIN AND WATER QUALITY TRENDS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Total wet mercur deposition was monitored weekly at six Upper-Midwest USA sites for a period of six years, 1990-95, to assess temporal and spatial pattern, and contributions to surface waters. Annual wet mercury deposition averaged 7.4 g Hg/m2yr., showed significant variations b...

Nitrogen mineralization in riparian soils along a river continuum within a multi-landuse basin

EPA Science Inventory

Nitrogen dynamics in riparian systems are often addressed within one landuse type and are rarely studied on watershed scales involving multiple land uses. This study tested for both temporal trends and watershed-wide spatial patterns in N mineralization and identified site fact...

[Ecological risk assessment of rural-urban ecotone based on landscape pattern: A case study in Daiyue District of Tai' an City, Shandong Province of East China].

PubMed

Shi, Hao-Peng; Yu, Kai-Qin; Feng, Yong-jun

2013-03-01

Based on the remote sensing data in 2000, 2005, and 2010, this paper analyzed the variation trends of the land use type and landscape pattern in Daiyue District of Tai' an City from 2000 to 2010. The ecological risk index was built, that of the District was re-sampled and spatially interpolated, and the spatiotemporal pattern of the ecological risk in the rural-urban ecotone of the District was analyzed. In 2000-2010, the main variation trend of the land use type in the District was the shift from natural landscape to artificial landscape. The intensity of human disturbance was larger in cultivated land, garden plot, and forestland than in other landscape types, while the human disturbance in water area was smaller. The ecological loss degree of cultivated land and water area decreased somewhat, while that of the other land use types presented an increasing trend. The ecological risk distribution in the District was discrete in 2000 and 2010, but most centralized in 2005. The ecological risk of each ecological risk sub-area had an increasing trend in 2000-2005, but was in adverse in 2005-2010. In 2000-2010, the ecological risk of the District was mainly at medium level. Spatially, the distribution of the ecological risk in the District had an obvious differentiation, with an overall diffusive increasing from forestland as the center to the surrounding areas. In the District, the ecological risk was mainly at medium and higher levels, the area with lower ecological risk had an obvious dynamic change, while that with the lowest and highest ecological risk had less change.

Horseshoe crab spawning activity in Delaware Bay, USA, after harvest reduction: A mixed-model analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, David R.; Robinson, Timothy J.

2015-01-01

A Delaware Bay, USA, standardized survey of spawning horseshoe crabs, Limulus polyphemus, was carried out in 1999 − 2013 through a citizen science network. Previous trend analyses of the data were at the state (DE or NJ) or bay-wide levels. Here, an alternative mixed-model regression analysis was used to estimate trends in female and male spawning densities at the beach level (n = 26) with the objective of inferring their causes. For females, there was no overall trend and no single explanation applies to the temporal and spatial patterns in their densities. Individual beaches that initially had higher densities tended to experience a decrease, while beaches that initially had lower densities tended to experience an increase. As a result, densities of spawning females at the end of the study period were relatively similar among beaches, suggesting a redistribution of females among the beaches over the study period. For males, there was a positive overall trend in spawning abundance from 1999 to 2013, and this increase occurred broadly among beaches. Moreover, the beaches with below-average initial male density tended to have the greatest increases. Possible explanations for these patterns include harvest reduction, sampling artifact, habitat change, density-dependent habitat selection, or mate selection. The broad and significant increase in male spawning density, which occurred after enactment of harvest controls, is consistent with the harvest reduction explanation, but there is no single explanation for the temporal or spatial pattern in female densities. These results highlight the continued value of a citizen-science-based spawning survey in understanding horseshoe crab ecology and conservation.

A Study on Environmental Research Trends Using Text-Mining Method - Focus on Spatial information and ICT -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, M. J.; Oh, K. Y.; Joung-ho, L.

2016-12-01

Recently there are many research about analysing the interaction between entities by text-mining analysis in various fields. In this paper, we aimed to quantitatively analyse research-trends in the area of environmental research relating either spatial information or ICT (Information and Communications Technology) by Text-mining analysis. To do this, we applied low-dimensional embedding method, clustering analysis, and association rule to find meaningful associative patterns of key words frequently appeared in the articles. As the authors suppose that KCI (Korea Citation Index) articles reflect academic demands, total 1228 KCI articles that have been published from 1996 to 2015 were reviewed and analysed by Text-mining method. First, we derived KCI articles from NDSL(National Discovery for Science Leaders) site. And then we pre-processed their key-words elected from abstract and then classified those in separable sectors. We investigated the appearance rates and association rule of key-words for articles in the two fields: spatial-information and ICT. In order to detect historic trends, analysis was conducted separately for the four periods: 1996-2000, 2001-2005, 2006-2010, 2011-2015. These analysis were conducted with the usage of R-software. As a result, we conformed that environmental research relating spatial information mainly focused upon such fields as `GIS(35%)', `Remote-Sensing(25%)', `environmental theme map(15.7%)'. Next, `ICT technology(23.6%)', `ICT service(5.4%)', `mobile(24%)', `big data(10%)', `AI(7%)' are primarily emerging from environmental research relating ICT. Thus, from the analysis results, this paper asserts that research trends and academic progresses are well-structured to review recent spatial information and ICT technology and the outcomes of the analysis can be an adequate guidelines to establish environment policies and strategies. KEY WORDS: Big data, Test-mining, Environmental research, Spatial-information, ICT Acknowledgements: The authors appreciate the support that this study has received from `Building application frame of environmental issues, to respond to the latest ICT trends'.

Biodiversity, molecular ecology and phylogeography of marine sponges: patterns, implications and outlooks.

PubMed

Wörheide, Gert; Solé-Cava, Antonio M; Hooper, John N A

2005-04-01

Marine sponges are an ecologically important and highly diverse component of marine benthic communities, found in all the world's oceans, at all depths. Although their commercial potential and evolutionary importance is increasingly recognized, many pivotal aspects of their basic biology remain enigmatic. Knowledge of historical biogeographic affinities and biodiversity patterns is rudimentary, and there are still few data about genetic variation among sponge populations and spatial patterns of this variation. Biodiversity analyses of tropical Australasian sponges revealed spatial trends not universally reflected in the distributions of other marine phyla within the Indo-West Pacific region. At smaller spatial scales sponges frequently form heterogeneous, spatially patchy assemblages, with some empirical evidence suggesting that environmental variables such as light and/or turbidity strongly contribute to local distributions. There are no apparent latitudinal diversity gradients at larger spatial scales but stochastic processes, such as changing current patterns, the presence or absence of major carbonate platforms and historical biogeography, may determine modern day distributions. Studies on Caribbean oceanic reefs have revealed similar patterns, only weakly correlated with environmental factors. However, several questions remain where molecular approaches promise great potential, e.g., concerning connectivity and biogeographic relationships. Studies to date have helped to reveal that sponge populations are genetically highly structured and that historical processes might play an important role in determining such structure. Increasingly sophisticated molecular tools are now being applied, with results contributing significantly to a better understanding of poriferan microevolutionary processes and molecular ecology.

[Drivers of human-caused fire occurrence and its variation trend under climate change in the Great Xing'an Mountains, Northeast China].

PubMed

Li, Shun; Wu, Zhi Wei; Liang, Yu; He, Hong Shi

2017-01-01

The Great Xing'an Mountains are an important boreal forest region in China with high frequency of fire occurrences. With climate change, this region may have a substantial change in fire frequency. Building the relationship between spatial pattern of human-caused fire occurrence and its influencing factors, and predicting the spatial patterns of human-caused fires under climate change scenarios are important for fire management and carbon balance in boreal forests. We employed a spatial point pattern model to explore the relationship between the spatial pattern of human-caused fire occurrence and its influencing factors based on a database of historical fire records (1967-2006) in the Great Xing'an Mountains. The fire occurrence time was used as dependent variable. Nine abiotic (annual temperature and precipitation, elevation, aspect, and slope), biotic (vegetation type), and human factors (distance to the nearest road, road density, and distance to the nearest settlement) were selected as explanatory variables. We substituted the climate scenario data (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) for the current climate data to predict the future spatial patterns of human-caused fire occurrence in 2050. Our results showed that the point pattern progress (PPP) model was an effective tool to predict the future relationship between fire occurrence and its spatial covariates. The climatic variables might significantly affect human-caused fire occurrence, while vegetation type, elevation and human variables were important predictors of human-caused fire occurrence. The human-caused fire occurrence probability was expected to increase in the south of the area, and the north and the area along the main roads would also become areas with high human-caused fire occurrence. The human-caused fire occurrence would increase by 72.2% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and by 166.7% under the RCP 8.5 scenario in 2050. Under climate change scenarios, the spatial patterns of human-caused fires were mainly influenced by the climate and human factors.

Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from eastern Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pielke, R.A.; Stohlgren, T.; Schell, L.; Parton, W.; Doesken, N.; Redmond, K.; Moeny, J.; McKee, T.; Kittel, T.G.F.

2002-01-01

We evaluated long-term trends in average maximum and minimum temperatures, threshold temperatures, and growing season in eastern Colorado, USA, to explore the potential shortcomings of many climate-change studies that either: (1) generalize regional patterns from single stations, single seasons, or a few parameters over short duration from averaging dissimilar stations: or (2) generalize an average regional pattern from coarse-scale general circulation models. Based on 11 weather stations, some trends were weakly regionally consistent with previous studies of night-time temperature warming. Long-term (80 + years) mean minimum temperatures increased significantly (P < 0.2) in about half the stations in winter, spring, and autumn and six stations had significant decreases in the number of days per year with temperatures ??? - 17.8 ??C (???0??F). However, spatial and temporal variation in the direction of change was enormous for all the other weather parameters tested, and, in the majority of tests, few stations showed significant trends (even at P < 0.2). In summer, four stations had significant increases and three stations had significant decreases in minimum temperatures, producing a strongly mixed regional signal. Trends in maximum temperature varied seasonally and geographically, as did trends in threshold temperature days ???32.2??C (???90??F) or days ???37.8??C (???100??F). There was evidence of a subregional cooling in autumn's maximum temperatures, with five stations showing significant decreasing trends. There were many geographic anomalies where neighbouring weather stations differed greatly in the magnitude of change or where they had significant and opposite trends. We conclude that sub-regional spatial and seasonal variation cannot be ignored when evaluating the direction and magnitude of climate change. It is unlikely that one or a few weather stations are representative of regional climate trends, and equally unlikely that regionally projected climate change from coarse-scale general circulation models will accurately portray trends at sub-regional scales. However, the assessment of a group of stations for consistent more qualitative trends (such as the number of days less than - 17.8??C, such as we found) provides a reasonably robust procedure to evaluate climate trends and variability. Copyright ?? 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

Identifying food deserts and swamps based on relative healthy food access: a spatio-temporal Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Luan, Hui; Law, Jane; Quick, Matthew

2015-12-30

Obesity and other adverse health outcomes are influenced by individual- and neighbourhood-scale risk factors, including the food environment. At the small-area scale, past research has analysed spatial patterns of food environments for one time period, overlooking how food environments change over time. Further, past research has infrequently analysed relative healthy food access (RHFA), a measure that is more representative of food purchasing and consumption behaviours than absolute outlet density. This research applies a Bayesian hierarchical model to analyse the spatio-temporal patterns of RHFA in the Region of Waterloo, Canada, from 2011 to 2014 at the small-area level. RHFA is calculated as the proportion of healthy food outlets (healthy outlets/healthy + unhealthy outlets) within 4-km from each small-area. This model measures spatial autocorrelation of RHFA, temporal trend of RHFA for the study region, and spatio-temporal trends of RHFA for small-areas. For the study region, a significant decreasing trend in RHFA is observed (-0.024), suggesting that food swamps have become more prevalent during the study period. For small-areas, significant decreasing temporal trends in RHFA were observed for all small-areas. Specific small-areas located in south Waterloo, north Kitchener, and southeast Cambridge exhibited the steepest decreasing spatio-temporal trends and are classified as spatio-temporal food swamps. This research demonstrates a Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling approach to analyse RHFA at the small-area scale. Results suggest that food swamps are more prevalent than food deserts in the Region of Waterloo. Analysing spatio-temporal trends of RHFA improves understanding of local food environment, highlighting specific small-areas where policies should be targeted to increase RHFA and reduce risk factors of adverse health outcomes such as obesity.

Assessment of surface-water quantity and quality, Eagle River watershed, Colorado, 1947-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Cory A.; Moore, Jennifer L.; Richards, Rodney J.

2011-01-01

The spatial patterns for concentrations of trace metals (aluminum, cadmium, copper, iron, manganese, and zinc) indicate an increase in dissolved concentrations of these metals near historical mining areas in the Eagle River and several tributaries near Belden. In general, concentrations decrease downstream from mining areas. Concentrations typically are near or below reporting limits in Gore Creek and other tributaries within the watershed. Concentrations for trace elements (arsenic, selenium, and uranium) in the watershed usually are below the reporting limit, and no prevailing spatial patterns were observed in the data. Step-trend analysis and temporal-trend analysis provide evidence that remediation of historical mining areas in the upper Eagle River have led to observed decreases in metals concentrations in many surface-waters. Comparison of pre- and post-remediation concentrations for many metals indicates significant decreases in metals concentrations for cadmium, manganese, and zinc at sites downstream from the Eagle Mine Superfund Site. Some sites show order of magnitude reductions in median concentrations between these two periods. Evaluation of monotonic trends for dissolved metals concentrations show downward trends at numerous sites in, and downstream from, historic mining areas. The spatial pattern of nutrients shows lower concentrations on many tributaries and on the Eagle River upstream from Red Cliff with increases in nutrients downstream of major urban areas. Seasonal variations show that for many nutrient species, concentrations tend to be lowest May-June and highest January-March. The gradual changes in concentrations between seasons may be related to dilution effects from increases and decreases in streamflow. Upward trends in nutrients between the towns of Gypsum and Avon were detected for nitrate, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus. An upward trend in nitrite was detected in Gore Creek. No trends were detected in un-ionized ammonia within the ERW. Exceedances of State water-quality standards (nitrite, nitrate, and un-ionized ammonia) and levels higher than U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommendations (total phosphorus) occur in several areas within the ERW. The majority of the exceedances are from comparisons to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency total phosphorus recommendations. A positive correlation was observed between suspended sediment and total phosphorus. An upward trend in total dissolved solids in Gore Creek may be the result of increases in chloride salts. Highly significant trends were detected in sodium, potassium, and chloride with a significant upward trend in magnesium and a weakly significant upward trend in calcium. A quantitative analysis of the relative abundance of calcium, magnesium, sodium, and potassium to the available anions suggests that chloride salts likely are the source for the detected upward trends because chloride is the only commonly occurring anion with a trend in Gore Greek. A potential source for the observed chloride salts may be the chemical anti-icing and deicing products used during winter road maintenance in municipal areas and on Interstate-70. A downward trend in dissolved solids in the Eagle River between Gypsum and Avon may be contributing to the detected trend on the Eagle River at Gypsum. Significant downward trends were detected in specific ions such as calcium, magnesium, sulfate, and silica. Measures of total dissolved solids as well as comparisons to specific ions show that in water-quality samples within the ERW concentrations generally are lower in the headwaters, with increases downstream from Wolcott. Differences in concentrations likely result from increased abundance of salt-bearing geologic units downstream from Avon. Few sites had measured concentrations that exceeded the State standards for chloride.

Process, pattern and scale: hydrogeomorphology and plant diversity in forested wetlands across multiple spatial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, L.; Hupp, C. R.; Forman, R. T.

2002-12-01

Many geodisturbances occur across large spatial scales, spanning entire landscapes and creating ecological phenomena in their wake. Ecological study at large scales poses special problems: (1) large-scale studies require large-scale resources, and (2) sampling is not always feasible at the appropriate scale, and researchers rely on data collected at smaller scales to interpret patterns across broad regions. A criticism of landscape ecology is that findings at small spatial scales are "scaled up" and applied indiscriminately across larger spatial scales. In this research, landscape scaling is addressed through process-pattern relationships between hydrogeomorphic processes and patterns of plant diversity in forested wetlands. The research addresses: (1) whether patterns and relationships between hydrogeomorphic, vegetation, and spatial variables can transcend scale; and (2) whether data collected at small spatial scales can be used to describe patterns and relationships across larger spatial scales. Field measurements of hydrologic, geomorphic, spatial, and vegetation data were collected or calculated for 15- 1-ha sites on forested floodplains of six (6) Chesapeake Bay Coastal Plain streams over a total area of about 20,000 km2. Hydroperiod (day/yr), floodplain surface elevation range (m), discharge (m3/s), stream power (kg-m/s2), sediment deposition (mm/yr), relative position downstream and other variables were used in multivariate analyses to explain differences in species richness, tree diversity (Shannon-Wiener Diversity Index H'), and plant community composition at four spatial scales. Data collected at the plot (400-m2) and site- (c. 1-ha) scales are applied to and tested at the river watershed and regional spatial scales. Results indicate that plant species richness and tree diversity (Shannon-Wiener diversity index H') can be described by hydrogeomorphic conditions at all scales, but are best described at the site scale. Data collected at plot and site scales are tested for spatial heterogeneity across the Chesapeake Bay Coastal Plain using a geostatistical variogram, and multiple regression analysis is used to relate plant diversity, spatial, and hydrogeomorphic variables across Coastal Plain regions and hydrologic regimes. Results indicate that relationships between hydrogeomorphic processes and patterns of plant diversity at finer scales can proxy relationships at coarser scales in some, not all, cases. Findings also suggest that data collected at small scales can be used to describe trends across broader scales under limited conditions.

Differential patterns, trends and hotspots of road traffic injuries on different road networks in Vellore district, southern India.

PubMed

Mohan, Venkata Raghava; Sarkar, Rajiv; Abraham, Vinod Joseph; Balraj, Vinohar; Naumova, Elena N

2015-03-01

To describe spatial and temporal profiles of Road Traffic Injuries (RTIs) on different road networks in Vellore district of southern India. Using the information in the police maintained First Information Reports (FIRs), daily time series of RTI counts were created and temporal characteristics were analysed with respect to the vehicle, road types and time of the day for the period January 2005 to May 2007. Daily incidence and trend of RTIs were estimated using a Poisson regression analysis. Of the reported 3262 RTIs, 52% had occurred on the National Highway (NH). The overall RTI rate on the NH was 8.8/100 000 vehicles per day with significantly higher pedestrian involvement. The mean numbers of RTIs were significantly higher on weekends. Thirteen percentage of all RTIs were associated with fatalities. Hotspots are major town junctions, and RTI rates differ over different stretches of the NH. In India, FIRs form a valuable source of RTI information. Information on different vehicle profile, RTI patterns, and their spatial and temporal trends can be used by administrators to devise effective strategies for RTI prevention by concentrating on the high-risk areas, thereby optimising the use of available personnel and resources. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Statistical analysis of trends in monthly precipitation at the Limbang River Basin, Sarawak (NW Borneo), Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnan, M. V. Ninu; Prasanna, M. V.; Vijith, H.

2018-05-01

Effect of climate change in a region can be characterised by the analysis of rainfall trends. In the present research, monthly rainfall trends at Limbang River Basin (LRB) in Sarawak, Malaysia for a period of 45 years (1970-2015) were characterised through the non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests and relative seasonality index. Statistically processed monthly rainfall of 12 well distributed rain gauging stations in LRB shows almost equal amount of rainfall in all months. Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests revealed a specific pattern of rainfall trend with a definite boundary marked in the months of January and August with positive trends in all stations. Among the stations, Limbang DID, Long Napir and Ukong showed positive (increasing) trends in all months with a maximum increase of 4.06 mm/year (p = 0.01) in November. All other stations showed varying trends (both increasing and decreasing). Significant (p = 0.05) decreasing trend was noticed in Ulu Medalam and Setuan during September (- 1.67 and - 1.79 mm/year) and October (- 1.59 and - 1.68 mm/year) in Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests. Spatial pattern of monthly rainfall trends showed two clusters of increasing rainfalls (maximas) in upper and lower part of the river basin separated with a dominant decreasing rainfall corridor. The results indicate a generally increasing trend of rainfall in Sarawak, Borneo.

Space-based observations of nitrogen dioxide: Trends in anthropogenic emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, Ashley Ray

Space-based instruments provide routine global observations, offering a unique perspective on the spatial and temporal variation of atmospheric constituents. In this dissertation, trends in regional-scale anthropogenic nitrogen oxide emissions (NO + NO2 ≡ NOx) are investigated using high resolution observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). By comparing trends in OMI observations with those from ground-based measurements and an emissions inventory, I show that satellite observations are well-suited for capturing changes in emissions over time. The high spatial and temporal resolutions of the observations provide a uniquely complete view of regional-scale changes in the spatial patterns of NO 2. I show that NOx concentrations have decreased significantly in urban regions of the United States between 2005 and 2011, with an average reduction of 32 ± 7%. By examining day-of-week and interannual trends, I show that these reductions can largely be attributed to improved emission control technology in the mobile source fleet; however, I also show that the economic downturn of the late 2000's has impacted emissions. Additionally, I describe the development of a high-resolution retrieval of NO2 from OMI observations known as the Berkeley High Resolution (BEHR) retrieval. The BEHR product uses higher spatial and temporal resolution terrain and profile parameters than the operational retrievals and is shown to provide a more quantitative measure of tropospheric NO2 column density. These results have important implications for future retrievals of NO2 from space-based observations.

Spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation remote sensing phenology and its response to climatic factors on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, S.; Chen, X.

2015-12-01

Based on the MODIS MCD12Q2 remote sensing phenology product, we analyzed spatiotemporal variations of vegetation green-up, maturity, senescence and brown-off dates, and their relation to spatiotemporal patterns of air temperature and precipitation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). From 2001 to 2012, phenological time series at about 11.7%~15.1% pixels indicate significant linear trends (P<0.1) with strong spatial consistency. Namely, pixels with significant phenological advancement and growing season lengthening are mainly distributed in the middle and eastern parts of the QTP, while pixels with significant phenological delay and growing season shortening are mainly distributed in the western and southern parts as well as the eastern edge of the QTP. Similar spatial patterns for positive and negative linear trends of the minimum and maximum EVI, and the time-integrated EVI during the growing season were detected in the above two regions, respectively. With regard to climatic factors, mean annual temperature shows an increased trend over the QTP except for the eastern edge, whereas annual precipitation displays an increased trend in the middle and eastern parts but a decreased trend in the western and southern parts as well as the eastern edge of the QTP. These findings suggest that phenological advancement, growing season lengthening, and vegetation activity enhancement in the middle and eastern parts might be attributed to coincident temperature and precipitation increase. By contrast, phenological delay, growing season shortening, and vegetation activity reduction in the western and southern parts as well as the eastern edge might be caused by opposite changes of temperature and precipitation, and strong evaporation induced water shortage. Furthermore, a partial correlation analysis indicates that green-up, maturity, and brown-off dates were influenced by preceding temperature and precipitation, while senescence date was affected by preceding precipitation.

Long Term Precipitation Pattern Identification and Derivation of Non Linear Precipitation Trend in a Catchment using Singular Spectrum Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unnikrishnan, Poornima; Jothiprakash, Vinayakam

2017-04-01

Precipitation is the major component in the hydrologic cycle. Awareness of not only the total amount of rainfall pertaining to a catchment, but also the pattern of its spatial and temporal distribution are equally important in the management of water resources systems in an efficient way. Trend is the long term direction of a time series; it determines the overall pattern of a time series. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is a time series analysis technique that decomposes the time series into small components (eigen triples). This property of the method of SSA has been utilized to extract the trend component of the rainfall time series. In order to derive trend from the rainfall time series, we need to select components corresponding to trend from the eigen triples. For this purpose, periodogram analysis of the eigen triples have been proposed to be coupled with SSA, in the present study. In the study, seasonal data of England and Wales Precipitation (EWP) for a time period of 1766-2013 have been analyzed and non linear trend have been derived out of the precipitation data. In order to compare the performance of SSA in deriving trend component, Mann Kendall (MK) test is also used to detect trends in EWP seasonal series and the results have been compared. The result showed that the MK test could detect the presence of positive or negative trend for a significance level, whereas the proposed methodology of SSA could extract the non-linear trend present in the rainfall series along with its shape. We will discuss further the comparison of both the methodologies along with the results in the presentation.

The effect of length and starting year on trend analyses of temperatures in Spanish mainland (1951-2010). Seasonal analyses: Summer (IV)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas Solé, Celia; Peña Angulo, Dhais; Gonzalez Hidalgo, Jose Carlos; Brunetti, Michele

2017-04-01

In this poster we applied the moving window approach (see Poster I of this collection) to analyze trends of summer and its corresponding months (June, July, August) temperature mean values of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) in Spanish mainland to detect the effects of length period and starting year. Monthly series belong to Monthly Temperature dataset of Spanish mainland (MOTEDAS). Database contains in its grid format of 5236 pixels of monthly series (10x10 km). The threshold used in spatial analyses considers 20% of land under significant trend (p<0.05). The most striking results are as follow: • Tmax and Tmin seasonal trends affected mostly all the Spanish mainland, while the area affected decrease from 1983-2010 (Tmax) and 1987-2010 (Tmin). In both cases the areas affected significantly in recent decades are restricted to Eastern-coastland areas. • Monthly analyses show highly differences between Tmax and Tmin. Only June Tmax show significant trend in extended areas, and in fact from 70´s they are restricted to eastern coastland. Meanwhile both July and August Tmax trend affect particularly that area until mid 70´s. • Monthly trend analyses of Tmin show different patterns both in temporal windows and spatial distribution. Significant trend in June dominates practically all windows, while in July and August they predominate in south and eastern-Mediterranean coastland. No significant trend has been observed from middle of the 80´s (< 20% of area). In conclusion, summer trend analyses of Tmax and Tmin and their spatial distribution show clearly highly differences. In Tmax seasonal trend seems to be dominated by June Tmax behavior, while in Tmin the contribution of July and August must be considered particularly in southern and eastern-Mediterranean coastland. The most recent decades in Tmax and Tmin do not show significance, except in June Tmin.

Regional transport modelling for nitrate trend assessment and forecasting in a chalk aquifer.

PubMed

Orban, Philippe; Brouyère, Serge; Batlle-Aguilar, Jordi; Couturier, Julie; Goderniaux, Pascal; Leroy, Mathieu; Maloszewski, Piotr; Dassargues, Alain

2010-10-21

Regional degradation of groundwater resources by nitrate has become one of the main challenges for water managers worldwide. Regulations have been defined to reverse observed nitrate trends in groundwater bodies, such as the Water Framework Directive and the Groundwater Daughter Directive in the European Union. In such a context, one of the main challenges remains to develop efficient approaches for groundwater quality assessment at regional scale, including quantitative numerical modelling, as a decision support for groundwater management. A new approach combining the use of environmental tracers and the innovative 'Hybrid Finite Element Mixing Cell' (HFEMC) modelling technique is developed to study and forecast the groundwater quality at the regional scale, with an application to a regional chalk aquifer in the Geer basin in Belgium. Tritium data and nitrate time series are used to produce a conceptual model for regional groundwater flow and contaminant transport in the combined unsaturated and saturated zones of the chalk aquifer. This shows that the spatial distribution of the contamination in the Geer basin is essentially linked to the hydrodynamic conditions prevailing in the basin, more precisely to groundwater age and mixing and not to the spatial patterns of land use or local hydrodispersive processes. A three-dimensional regional scale groundwater flow and solute transport model is developed. It is able to reproduce the spatial patterns of tritium and nitrate and the observed nitrate trends in the chalk aquifer and it is used to predict the evolution of nitrate concentrations in the basin. The modelling application shows that the global inertia of groundwater quality is strong in the basin and trend reversal is not expected to occur before the 2015 deadline fixed by the European Water Framework Directive. The expected time required for trend reversal ranges between 5 and more than 50 years, depending on the location in the basin and the expected reduction in nitrate application. To reach a good chemical status, nitrate concentrations in the infiltrating water should be reduced as soon as possible below 50mg/l; however, even in that case, more than 50 years is needed to fully reverse upward trends. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal-spatial evolution of the hydrologic drought characteristics of the karst drainage basins in South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Zhonghua; Liang, Hong; Yang, Chaohui; Huang, Fasu; Zeng, Xinbo

2018-02-01

Hydrologic drought, as a typical natural phenomenon in the context of global climate change, is the extension and development of meteorological and agricultural droughts, and it is an eventual and extreme drought. This study selects 55 hydrological control basins in Southern China as research areas. The study analyzes features, such as intensity and occurrence frequency of hydrologic droughts, and explores the spatial-temporal evolution patterns in the karst drainage basins in Southern China by virtue of Streamflow Drought Index. Results show that (1) the general hydrologic droughts from 1970s to 2010s exhibited ;an upward trend after having experienced a previous decline; in the karst drainage basins in Southern China; the trend was mainly represented by the gradual alleviation of hydrologic droughts from 1970s to 1990s and the gradual aggravation from 2000s to 2010s. (2) The spatial-temporal evolution pattern of occurrence frequency in the karst drainage basins in Southern China was consistent with the intensity of hydrologic droughts. The periods of 1970s and 2010s exhibited the highest occurrence frequency. (3) The karst drainage basins in Southern China experienced extremely complex variability of hydrologic droughts from 1970s to 2010s. Drought intensity and occurrence frequency significantly vary for different types of hydrology.

Reconstruction of global gridded monthly sectoral water withdrawals for 1971-2010 and analysis of their spatiotemporal patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Zhongwei; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Xinya; Tang, Qiuhong; Vernon, Chris; Leng, Guoyong; Liu, Yaling; Döll, Petra; Eisner, Stephanie; Gerten, Dieter; Hanasaki, Naota; Wada, Yoshihide

2018-04-01

Human water withdrawal has increasingly altered the global water cycle in past decades, yet our understanding of its driving forces and patterns is limited. Reported historical estimates of sectoral water withdrawals are often sparse and incomplete, mainly restricted to water withdrawal estimates available at annual and country scales, due to a lack of observations at seasonal and local scales. In this study, through collecting and consolidating various sources of reported data and developing spatial and temporal statistical downscaling algorithms, we reconstruct a global monthly gridded (0.5°) sectoral water withdrawal dataset for the period 1971-2010, which distinguishes six water use sectors, i.e., irrigation, domestic, electricity generation (cooling of thermal power plants), livestock, mining, and manufacturing. Based on the reconstructed dataset, the spatial and temporal patterns of historical water withdrawal are analyzed. Results show that total global water withdrawal has increased significantly during 1971-2010, mainly driven by the increase in irrigation water withdrawal. Regions with high water withdrawal are those densely populated or with large irrigated cropland production, e.g., the United States (US), eastern China, India, and Europe. Seasonally, irrigation water withdrawal in summer for the major crops contributes a large percentage of total annual irrigation water withdrawal in mid- and high-latitude regions, and the dominant season of irrigation water withdrawal is also different across regions. Domestic water withdrawal is mostly characterized by a summer peak, while water withdrawal for electricity generation has a winter peak in high-latitude regions and a summer peak in low-latitude regions. Despite the overall increasing trend, irrigation in the western US and domestic water withdrawal in western Europe exhibit a decreasing trend. Our results highlight the distinct spatial pattern of human water use by sectors at the seasonal and annual timescales. The reconstructed gridded water withdrawal dataset is open access, and can be used for examining issues related to water withdrawals at fine spatial, temporal, and sectoral scales.

Trends in monthly precipitation over the northwest of Iran (NWI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asakereh, Hossein

2017-10-01

Increasing global temperatures during the last century have had their own effects on other climatic conditions, particularly on precipitation characteristics. This study was meant to investigate the spatial and temporal monthly trends of precipitation using the least square error (LSE) approach for the northwest of Iran (NWI). To this end, a database was obtained from 250 measuring stations uniformly scattered all over NWI from 1961 to 2010. The spatial average of annual precipitation in NWI during the period of study was approximately 220.9-726.7 mm. The annual precipitation decreased from southwest to northeast, while the large amount of precipitation was concentrated in the south-west and in the mountainous areas. All over NWI, the maximum and minimum precipitation records occurred from March to May and July to September, respectively. The coefficient of variation (CV) is greater than 44 % in all of NWI and may reach over 76 % in many places. The greatest range of CV, for instance, occurred during July. The spatial variability of precipitation was consistent with a tempo-spatial pattern of precipitation trends. There was a considerable difference between the amounts of change during the months, and the negative trends were mainly attributed to areas concentrated in eastern and southern parts of NWI far from the western mountain ranges. Moreover, limited areas with positive precipitation trends can be found in very small and isolated regions. This is observable particularly in the eastern half of NWI, which is mostly located far from Westerlies. On the other hand, seasonal precipitation trends indicated a slight decrease during winter and spring and a slight increase during summer and autumn. Consequently, there were major changes in average precipitation that occurred negatively in the area under study during the observation period. This finding is in agreement with those findings by recent studies which revealed a decreasing trend of around 2 mm/year over NWI during 1966-2005.

Spatiotemporal changes in vegetation net primary productivity in the arid region of Northwest China, 2001 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhen; Pan, Jinghu

2018-03-01

Net primary productivity (NPP) is recognized as an important index of ecosystem conditions and a key variable of the terrestrial carbon cycle. It also represents the comprehensive effects of climate change and anthropogenic activity on terrestrial vegetation. In this study, the temporal-spatial pattern of NPP for the period 2001-2012 was analyzed using a remote sensing-based carbon model (i.e., the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach, CASA) in addition to other methods, such as linear trend analysis, standard deviation, and the Hurst index. Temporally, NPP showed a significant increasing trend for the arid region of Northwest China (ARNC), with an annual increase of 2.327 g C. Maximum and minimum productivity values appeared in July and December, respectively. Spatially, the NPP was relatively stable in the temperate and warm-temperate desert regions of Northwest China, while temporally, it showed an increasing trend. However, some attention should be given to the northwestern warm-temperate desert region, where there is severe continuous degradation and only a slight improvement trend.

Spatiotemporal patterns of evapotranspiration in response to multiple environmental factors simulated by the Community Land Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Thornton, Peter E

In this study, spatial and temporal patterns of evapotranspiration (ET) over the period of 1982-2008 are investigated and attributed to multiple environmental factors using the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4). Our results show that CLM4 captures the spatial distribution and interannual variability of ET well when compared to observation-based estimates derived from the FLUXNET network of eddy covariance towers using the model tree ensembles (MTE) approach. We find that climate trends and variability dominate predicted variability in ET. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration also plays an important role in modulating the trend of predicted ET over most land areas, andmore » functions as the dominant factor controlling ET changes over North America, South America and Asia regions. Compared to the effect of climate change and CO2 concentration, the roles of other factors such as nitrogen deposition, land use change and aerosol deposition are less pronounced and regionally dependent. For example, the aerosol deposition contribution is the third-most important factor for trends of ET over Europe, while it has the smallest impact on ET trend over other regions. As ET is a dominant component of the terrestrial water cycle, our results suggest that environmental factors like elevated CO2, nitrogen and aerosol depositions, and land use and land cover change, in addition to climate, could have significant impact on future projections of water resources and water cycle dynamics at global and regional scales.« less

Spatio-temporal representativeness of ground-based downward solar radiation measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarz, Matthias; Wild, Martin; Folini, Doris

2017-04-01

Surface solar radiation (SSR) is most directly observed with ground based pyranometer measurements. Besides measurement uncertainties, which arise from the pyranometer instrument itself, also errors attributed to the limited spatial representativeness of observations from single sites for their large-scale surrounding have to be taken into account when using such measurements for energy balance studies. In this study the spatial representativeness of 157 homogeneous European downward surface solar radiation time series from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) and the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) were examined for the period 1983-2015 by using the high resolution (0.05°) surface solar radiation data set from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM-SAF SARAH) as a proxy for the spatiotemporal variability of SSR. By correlating deseasonalized monthly SSR time series form surface observations against single collocated satellite derived SSR time series, a mean spatial correlation pattern was calculated and validated against purely observational based patterns. Generally decreasing correlations with increasing distance from station, with high correlations (R2 = 0.7) in proximity to the observational sites (±0.5°), was found. When correlating surface observations against time series from spatially averaged satellite derived SSR data (and thereby simulating coarser and coarser grids), very high correspondence between sites and the collocated pixels has been found for pixel sizes up to several degrees. Moreover, special focus was put on the quantification of errors which arise in conjunction to spatial sampling when estimating the temporal variability and trends for a larger region from a single surface observation site. For 15-year trends on a 1° grid, errors due to spatial sampling in the order of half of the measurement uncertainty for monthly mean values were found.

Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, K.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Hannaford, J.; van Lanen, H. A. J.

2012-02-01

An overall appraisal of runoff changes at the European scale has been hindered by "white space" on maps of observed trends due to a paucity of readily-available streamflow data. This study tested whether this white space can be filled using estimates of trends derived from model simulations of European runoff. The simulations stem from an ensemble of eight global hydrological models that were forced with the same climate input for the period 1963-2000. A validation of the derived trends for 293 grid cells across the European domain with observation-based trend estimates, allowed an assessment of the uncertainty of the modelled trends. The models agreed on the predominant continental scale patterns of trends, but disagreed on magnitudes and even on trend directions at the transition between regions with increasing and decreasing runoff trends, in complex terrain with a high spatial variability, and in snow-dominated regimes. Model estimates appeared most reliable in reproducing trends in annual runoff, winter runoff, and 7-day high flow. Modelled trends in runoff during the summer months, spring (for snow influenced regions) and autumn, and trends in summer low flow, were more variable and should be viewed with caution due to higher uncertainty. The ensemble mean overall provided the best representation of the trends in the observations. Maps of trends in annual runoff based on the ensemble mean demonstrated a pronounced continental dipole pattern of positive trends in western and northern Europe and negative trends in southern and parts of Eastern Europe, which has not previously been demonstrated and discussed in comparable detail.

Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and ARIMA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid

2017-08-01

In this study, 60-year monthly rainfall data of Bangladesh were analysed to detect trends. Modified Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and Sen's slope estimators were applied to find the long-term annual, dry season and monthly trends. Sequential Mann-Kendall analysis was applied to detect the potential trend turning points. Spatial variations of the trends were examined using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. AutoRegressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for the country mean rainfall and for other two stations data which depicted the highest and the lowest trend in the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests. Results showed that there is no significant trend in annual rainfall pattern except increasing trends for Cox's Bazar, Khulna, Satkhira and decreasing trend for Srimagal areas. For the dry season, only Bogra area represented significant decreasing trend. Long-term monthly trends demonstrated a mixed pattern; both negative and positive changes were found from February to September. Comilla area showed a significant decreasing trend for consecutive 3 months while Rangpur and Khulna stations confirmed the significant rising trends for three different months in month-wise trends analysis. Rangpur station data gave a maximum increasing trend in April whereas a maximum decreasing trend was found in August for Comilla station. ARIMA models predict +3.26, +8.6 and -2.30 mm rainfall per year for the country, Cox's Bazar and Srimangal areas, respectively. However, all the test results and predictions revealed a good agreement among them in the study.

Anthropometric geography applied to the analysis of socioeconomic disparities: cohort trends and spatial patterns of height and robustness in 20th-century Spain

PubMed Central

Camara, Antonio D.; Roman, Joan Garcia

2014-01-01

Anthropometrics have been widely used to study the influence of environmental factors on health and nutritional status. In contrast, anthropometric geography has not often been employed to approximate the dynamics of spatial disparities associated with socioeconomic and demographic changes. Spain exhibited intense disparity and change during the middle decades of the 20th century, with the result that the life courses of the corresponding cohorts were associated with diverse environmental conditions. This was also true of the Spanish territories. This paper presents insights concerning the relationship between socioeconomic changes and living conditions by combining the analysis of cohort trends and the anthropometric cartography of height and physical build. This analysis is conducted for Spanish male cohorts born 1934–1973 that were recorded in the Spanish military statistics. This information is interpreted in light of region-level data on GDP and infant mortality. Our results show an anthropometric convergence across regions that, nevertheless, did not substantially modify the spatial patterns of robustness, featuring primarily robust northeastern regions and weak Central-Southern regions. These patterns persisted until the 1990s (cohorts born during the 1970s). For the most part, anthropometric disparities were associated with socioeconomic disparities, although the former lessened over time to a greater extent than the latter. Interestingly, the various anthropometric indicators utilized here do not point to the same conclusions. Some discrepancies between height and robustness patterns have been found that moderate the statements from the analysis of cohort height alone regarding the level and evolution of living conditions across Spanish regions. PMID:26640422

Changes in autumn vegetation dormancy onset date and the climate controls across temperate ecosystems in China from 1982 to 2010.

PubMed

Yang, Yuting; Guan, Huade; Shen, Miaogen; Liang, Wei; Jiang, Lei

2015-02-01

Vegetation phenology is a sensitive indicator of the dynamic response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. In this study, the spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation dormancy onset date (DOD) and its climate controls over temperate China were examined by analysing the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index and concurrent climate data from 1982 to 2010. Results show that preseason (May through October) air temperature is the primary climatic control of the DOD spatial pattern across temperate China, whereas preseason cumulative precipitation is dominantly associated with the DOD spatial pattern in relatively cold regions. Temporally, the average DOD over China's temperate ecosystems has delayed by 0.13 days per year during the past three decades. However, the delay trends are not continuous throughout the 29-year period. The DOD experienced the largest delay during the 1980s, but the delay trend slowed down or even reversed during the 1990s and 2000s. Our results also show that interannual variations in DOD are most significantly related with preseason mean temperature in most ecosystems, except for the desert ecosystem for which the variations in DOD are mainly regulated by preseason cumulative precipitation. Moreover, temperature also determines the spatial pattern of temperature sensitivity of DOD, which became significantly lower as temperature increased. On the other hand, the temperature sensitivity of DOD increases with increasing precipitation, especially in relatively dry areas (e.g. temperate grassland). This finding stresses the importance of hydrological control on the response of autumn phenology to changes in temperature, which must be accounted in current temperature-driven phenological models. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation of wildfire patterns at the wildland-urban fringe across the continental U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, A. M.; Hogue, T. S.

2014-12-01

Wildfires threaten ecosystems and urban development across the United States, posing significant implications for land management and natural processes such as watershed hydrology. This study investigates the spatial association between large wildfires and urbanization. Several geospatial dataset are combined to map wildfires (Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity for 1984 to 2012) and housing density (SILVIS Lab Spatial Analysis for Conservation and Sustainability decadal housing density for 1940 to 2030) relative to natural wildlands across the contiguous U.S. Several buffers (i.e. 25 km) are developed around wildlands (Protected Areas Database of the United States) to quantify the change and relationship in spatial fire and housing density patterns. Since 1984, wildfire behavior is cyclical and follows general climatology, where warmer years have more and larger fires. Ignition locations also follow transportation corridors and development which provide easy accessibility to wildlands. In California, both fire frequency and total acres burned exhibit increasing trends (statistically significant at 95%). The 1980s average wildfire frequency and total acres burned was 3100 fires and approximately 1200 km2, respectively. These numbers have increased to 2200 fires and over 1500 km2 in the 2010 to 2012 period alone. Initial observations also show that decennial population and area burned for four major Californian counties (Los Angeles, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Shasta) show strong correlation between the last decade of burned area, urban-fringe proximity, and urbanization trends. Improving our understanding of human induced wildfire regimes provides key information on urban fringe communities most vulnerable to the wildfire risks and can help inform regional development planning.

Links between scale and neotropical migratory bird populations

Treesearch

Deborah M. Finch

1994-01-01

Recent concerns about the future for migratory birds, particularly those that migrate to the Tropics, have led to the development of a variety of new research and education initiatives addressing avian population ecology and conservation. Research that focuses on the relationships between migrant population trends, geographical patterns, and spatial and temporal scales...

The spatial diffusion of norovirus epidemics over three seasons in Tokyo.

PubMed

Inaida, S; Shobugawa, Y; Matsuno, S; Saito, R; Suzuki, H

2015-02-01

We studied the spatial trend of norovirus (NoV) epidemics using sentinel gastroenteritis surveillance data for patients aged <15 years (n = 140) in the Tokyo area for the 2006-2007 to 2008-2009 seasons utilizing the kriging method of geographical information system (GIS). This is the first study of the spreading pattern of NoV epidemics using sentinel surveillance data. Correlations of sentinel cases between the seasons and with demographic data were examined to identify the trend and related factors. A similar pattern of diffusion was observed over the seasons, and its mean correlation between seasons was significantly high. A higher number of cases were found in the peripheral area, which surrounds the most populated central area, and showed a correlation with the ratio of the children population (r = 0·321, P < 0·01) and the ratio of residents in larger families (r = 0·263, P < 0·01). While NoV susceptibility remained, the results suggest a transmission route in the local community as a possible epidemic factor. Prevention with focus on the peripheral area is desirable.

Tundra landform and vegetation productivity trend maps for the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lara, Mark J.; Nitze, Ingmar; Grosse, Guido; McGuire, A. David

2018-04-01

Arctic tundra landscapes are composed of a complex mosaic of patterned ground features, varying in soil moisture, vegetation composition, and surface hydrology over small spatial scales (10-100 m). The importance of microtopography and associated geomorphic landforms in influencing ecosystem structure and function is well founded, however, spatial data products describing local to regional scale distribution of patterned ground or polygonal tundra geomorphology are largely unavailable. Thus, our understanding of local impacts on regional scale processes (e.g., carbon dynamics) may be limited. We produced two key spatiotemporal datasets spanning the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000 km2) to evaluate climate-geomorphological controls on arctic tundra productivity change, using (1) a novel 30 m classification of polygonal tundra geomorphology and (2) decadal-trends in surface greenness using the Landsat archive (1999-2014). These datasets can be easily integrated and adapted in an array of local to regional applications such as (1) upscaling plot-level measurements (e.g., carbon/energy fluxes), (2) mapping of soils, vegetation, or permafrost, and/or (3) initializing ecosystem biogeochemistry, hydrology, and/or habitat modeling.

Tundra landform and vegetation productivity trend maps for the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska.

PubMed

Lara, Mark J; Nitze, Ingmar; Grosse, Guido; McGuire, A David

2018-04-10

Arctic tundra landscapes are composed of a complex mosaic of patterned ground features, varying in soil moisture, vegetation composition, and surface hydrology over small spatial scales (10-100 m). The importance of microtopography and associated geomorphic landforms in influencing ecosystem structure and function is well founded, however, spatial data products describing local to regional scale distribution of patterned ground or polygonal tundra geomorphology are largely unavailable. Thus, our understanding of local impacts on regional scale processes (e.g., carbon dynamics) may be limited. We produced two key spatiotemporal datasets spanning the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000 km 2 ) to evaluate climate-geomorphological controls on arctic tundra productivity change, using (1) a novel 30 m classification of polygonal tundra geomorphology and (2) decadal-trends in surface greenness using the Landsat archive (1999-2014). These datasets can be easily integrated and adapted in an array of local to regional applications such as (1) upscaling plot-level measurements (e.g., carbon/energy fluxes), (2) mapping of soils, vegetation, or permafrost, and/or (3) initializing ecosystem biogeochemistry, hydrology, and/or habitat modeling.

[Ecological risk assessment of land use based on exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA): a case study of Haitan Island, Fujian Province].

PubMed

Wu, Jian; Chen, Peng; Wen, Chao-Xiang; Fu, Shi-Feng; Chen, Qing-Hui

2014-07-01

As a novel environment management tool, ecological risk assessment has provided a new perspective for the quantitative evaluation of ecological effects of land-use change. In this study, Haitan Island in Fujian Province was taken as a case. Based on the Landsat TM obtained in 1990, SPOT5 RS images obtained in 2010, general layout planning map of Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone in 2030, as well as the field investigation data, we established an ecological risk index to measure ecological endpoints. By using spatial autocorrelation and semivariance analysis of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), the ecological risk of Haitan Island under different land-use situations was assessed, including the past (1990), present (2010) and future (2030), and the potential risk and its changing trend were analyzed. The results revealed that the ecological risk index showed obvious scale effect, with strong positive correlation within 3000 meters. High-high (HH) and low-low (LL) aggregations were predominant types in spatial distribution of ecological risk index. The ecological risk index showed significant isotropic characteristics, and its spatial distribution was consistent with Anselin Local Moran I (LISA) distribution during the same period. Dramatic spatial distribution change of each ecological risk area was found among 1990, 2010 and 2030, and the fluctuation trend and amplitude of different ecological risk areas were diverse. The low ecological risk area showed a rise-to-fall trend while the medium and high ecological risk areas showed a fall-to-rise trend. In the planning period, due to intensive anthropogenic disturbance, the high ecological risk area spread throughout the whole region. To reduce the ecological risk in land-use and maintain the regional ecological security, the following ecological risk control strategies could be adopted, i.e., optimizing the spatial pattern of land resources, protecting the key ecoregions and controlling the scale of construction land use.

Spatio-temporal atmospheric circulation variability around the Antarctic Peninsula based on hemispheric circulation modes and weather types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wachter, Paul; Beck, Christoph; Philipp, Andreas; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Höppner, Kathrin

2017-04-01

Large parts of the Polar Regions are affected by a warming trend associated with substantial changes in the cryosphere. In Antarctica this positive trend pattern is most dominant in the western part of the continent and on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). An important driving mechanism of temperature variability and trends in this region is the atmospheric circulation. Changes in atmospheric circulation modes and frequencies of circulation types have major impacts on temperature characteristics at a certain station or region. We present results of a statistical downscaling study focused on AP temperature variability showing both results of large-scale atmospheric circulation modes and regional weather type classifications derived from monthly and daily gridded reanalysis data sets. In order to investigate spatial trends and variabilities of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), we analyze spatio-temporally resolved SAM-pattern maps from 1979 to 2015. First results show dominant multi-annual to decadal pattern variabilities which can be directly linked to temperature variabilities at the Antarctic Peninsula. A sub-continental to regional view on the influence of atmospheric circulation on AP temperature variability is given by the analysis of weather type classifications (WTC). With this analysis we identify significant changes in the frequency of occurrence of highly temperature-relevant circulation patterns. The investigated characteristics of weather type frequencies can also be related to the identified changes of the SAM.

Variations in spatial patterns of soil-vegetation properties and the emergence of multiple resilience thresholds within different debris flow fan positions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohseni, Neda; Hosseinzadeh, Seyed Reza; Sepehr, Adel; Golzarian, Mahmood Reza; Shabani, Farzin

2017-08-01

Debris flow fans are non-equilibrium landforms resulting from the spatial variations of debris flows deposited on them. This geomorphic disturbance involving the asymmetric redistribution of water and sediment may create spatially heterogeneous patterns of soil-vegetation along landforms. In this research, founded on field-based observations, we characterized the spatial patterns of some soil (e.g., particle size distribution including fine and coarse covers, and infiltration capacity) and vegetation (e.g., plant distance, vegetation density, patch size, and average number of patches) properties within different debris flow fan positions (Upper, Middle, and Lower fan) located at the base of the Binaloud Mountain hillslope in northeastern Iran. Thereafter, using a mathematical model of dry land vegetation dynamics, we calculated response trends of the different positions to the same environmental harshness gradient. Field measurements of soil-vegetation properties and infiltration rates showed that the asymmetric redistribution of debris flow depositions can cause statistically significant differences (P < 0.05) in the spatial patterns of soil and eco-hydrological characteristics along different landform positions. The results showed that mean plant distance, mean vegetation density, and the average number of patches decreased as the coarse covers increased toward the Lower fan plots. Conversely, an increase in infiltration rate was observed. The simulation results on the aerial images taken from different positions, illustrated that positions with a heterogeneous distribution of vegetation patterns were not desertified to the same degree of aridity. Thus, the Middle and Lower positions could survive under harsher aridity conditions, due to the emergence of more varied spatial vegetation patterns than at the Upper fan position. The findings, based on a combined field and modeling approach, highlighted that debris flow as a geomorphic process with the asymmetric distribution of depositions on the gentle slope of an alluvial fan, can incur multiple resilience thresholds with different degrees of self-organization under stressful conditions over the spatial heterogeneities of soil-dependent vegetation structures.

Environmental drivers of spatial variation in whole-tree transpiration in an aspen-dominated upland-to-wetland forest gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loranty, Michael M.; Mackay, D. Scott; Ewers, Brent E.; Adelman, Jonathan D.; Kruger, Eric L.

2008-02-01

Assumed representative center-of-stand measurements are typical inputs to models that scale forest transpiration to stand and regional extents. These inputs do not consider gradients in transpiration at stand boundaries or along moisture gradients and therefore potentially bias the large-scale estimates. We measured half-hourly sap flux (JS) for 173 trees in a spatially explicit cyclic sampling design across a topographically controlled gradient between a forested wetland and upland forest in northern Wisconsin. Our analyses focused on three dominant species in the site: quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx), speckled alder (Alnus incana (DuRoi) Spreng), and white cedar (Thuja occidentalis L.). Sapwood area (AS) was used to scale JS to whole tree transpiration (EC). Because spatial patterns imply underlying processes, geostatistical analyses were employed to quantify patterns of spatial autocorrelation across the site. A simple Jarvis type model parameterized using a Monte Carlo sampling approach was used to simulate EC (EC-SIM). EC-SIM was compared with observed EC(EC-OBS) and found to reproduce both the temporal trends and spatial variance of canopy transpiration. EC-SIM was then used to examine spatial autocorrelation as a function of environmental drivers. We found no spatial autocorrelation in JS across the gradient from forested wetland to forested upland. EC was spatially autocorrelated and this was attributed to spatial variation in AS which suggests species spatial patterns are important for understanding spatial estimates of transpiration. However, the range of autocorrelation in EC-SIM decreased linearly with increasing vapor pressure deficit, implying that consideration of spatial variation in the sensitivity of canopy stomatal conductance to D is also key to accurately scaling up transpiration in space.

Lung cancer mortality clusters in Shandong Province, China: how do they change over 40 years?

PubMed Central

Fu, Zhentao; Li, Yingmei; Lu, Zilong; Chu, Jie; Sun, Jiandong; Zhang, Jiyu; Zhang, Gaohui; Xue, Fuzhong; Guo, Xiaolei; Xu, Aiqiang

2017-01-01

Lung cancer has long been a major health problem in China. This study aimed to examine the temporal trend and spatial pattern of lung cancer mortality in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2013. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from Shandong Death Registration System and three nationwide retrospective cause-of-death surveys. A Purely Spatial Scan Statistics method with Discrete Poisson models was used to detect possible high-risk spatial clusters. The results show that lung cancer mortality rate in Shandong Province increased markedly from 1970-1974 (7.22 per 100,000 person-years) to 2011-2013 (56.37/100, 000). This increase was associated with both demographic and non-demographic factors. Several significant spatial clusters with high lung cancer mortality were identified. The most likely cluster was located in the northern region of Shandong Province during both 1970-1974 and 2011-2013. It appears the spatial pattern remained largely consistent over the last 40 years despite the absolute increase in the mortality rates. These findings will help develop intervention strategies to reduce lung cancer mortality in this large Chinese population. PMID:29179474

Coupled economic-coastline modeling with suckers and free riders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Zachary C.; McNamara, Dylan E.; Smith, Martin D.; Murray, A. Brad.; Gopalakrishnan, Sathya

2013-06-01

erosion is a natural trend along most sandy coastlines. Humans often respond to shoreline erosion with beach nourishment to maintain coastal property values. Locally extending the shoreline through nourishment alters alongshore sediment transport and changes shoreline dynamics in adjacent coastal regions. If left unmanaged, sandy coastlines can have spatially complex or simple patterns of erosion due to the relationship of large-scale morphology and the local wave climate. Using a numerical model that simulates spatially decentralized and locally optimal nourishment decisions characteristic of much of U.S. East Coast beach management, we find that human erosion intervention does not simply reflect the alongshore erosion pattern. Spatial interactions generate feedbacks in economic and physical variables that lead to widespread emergence of "free riders" and "suckers" with subsequent inequality in the alongshore distribution of property value. Along cuspate coastlines, such as those found along the U.S. Southeast Coast, these long-term property value differences span an order of magnitude. Results imply that spatially decentralized management of nourishment can lead to property values that are divorced from spatial erosion signals; this management approach is unlikely to be optimal.

Spatio-Temporal Variations of Soil Water Use in the Growing Season in Northeast China Using Modis Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, s.; Huang, F.; Li, B.; Qi, H.; Zhai, H.

2018-04-01

Water use efficiency is known as an important indicator of carbon and water cycle and reflects the transformation capacity of vegetation water and nutrients into biomass. In this study, we presented a new indicator of water use efficiency, soil water use level (SWUL), derived from satellite remote sensing based gross primary production and the Visible and Shortwave Infrared Drought Index (VSDI). SWUL based on MODIS data was calculated for the growing season of 2014 in Northeast China, and the spatial pattern and the variation trend were analyzed. Results showed that the highest SWUL was observed in forestland with the value of 36.65. In cropland and grassland, the average SWUL were 26.18 and 29.29, respectively. SWUL showed an increased trend in the first half period of the growing season and peaked around the 200th day. After the 220th day, SWUL presented a decreasing trend. Compared to the soil water use efficiency (SWUE), SWUL might depict the water use status at finer spatial resolution. The new indicator SWUL can help promote understanding the water use efficiency for regions of higher spatial heterogeneity.

Spatializing 6,000 years of global urbanization from 3700 BC to AD 2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reba, Meredith; Reitsma, Femke; Seto, Karen C.

2016-06-01

How were cities distributed globally in the past? How many people lived in these cities? How did cities influence their local and regional environments? In order to understand the current era of urbanization, we must understand long-term historical urbanization trends and patterns. However, to date there is no comprehensive record of spatially explicit, historic, city-level population data at the global scale. Here, we developed the first spatially explicit dataset of urban settlements from 3700 BC to AD 2000, by digitizing, transcribing, and geocoding historical, archaeological, and census-based urban population data previously published in tabular form by Chandler and Modelski. The dataset creation process also required data cleaning and harmonization procedures to make the data internally consistent. Additionally, we created a reliability ranking for each geocoded location to assess the geographic uncertainty of each data point. The dataset provides the first spatially explicit archive of the location and size of urban populations over the last 6,000 years and can contribute to an improved understanding of contemporary and historical urbanization trends.

Spatializing 6,000 years of global urbanization from 3700 BC to AD 2000

PubMed Central

Reba, Meredith; Reitsma, Femke; Seto, Karen C.

2016-01-01

How were cities distributed globally in the past? How many people lived in these cities? How did cities influence their local and regional environments? In order to understand the current era of urbanization, we must understand long-term historical urbanization trends and patterns. However, to date there is no comprehensive record of spatially explicit, historic, city-level population data at the global scale. Here, we developed the first spatially explicit dataset of urban settlements from 3700 BC to AD 2000, by digitizing, transcribing, and geocoding historical, archaeological, and census-based urban population data previously published in tabular form by Chandler and Modelski. The dataset creation process also required data cleaning and harmonization procedures to make the data internally consistent. Additionally, we created a reliability ranking for each geocoded location to assess the geographic uncertainty of each data point. The dataset provides the first spatially explicit archive of the location and size of urban populations over the last 6,000 years and can contribute to an improved understanding of contemporary and historical urbanization trends. PMID:27271481

Spatial correlations, clustering and percolation-like transitions in homicide crimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alves, L. G. A.; Lenzi, E. K.; Mendes, R. S.; Ribeiro, H. V.

2015-07-01

The spatial dynamics of criminal activities has been recently studied through statistical physics methods; however, models and results have been focusing on local scales (city level) and much less is known about these patterns at larger scales, e.g. at a country level. Here we report on a characterization of the spatial dynamics of the homicide crimes along the Brazilian territory using data from all cities (˜5000) in a period of more than thirty years. Our results show that the spatial correlation function in the per capita homicides decays exponentially with the distance between cities and that the characteristic correlation length displays an acute increasing trend in the latest years. We also investigate the formation of spatial clusters of cities via a percolation-like analysis, where clustering of cities and a phase-transition-like behavior describing the size of the largest cluster as a function of a homicide threshold are observed. This transition-like behavior presents evolutive features characterized by an increasing in the homicide threshold (where the transitions occur) and by a decreasing in the transition magnitudes (length of the jumps in the cluster size). We believe that our work sheds new light on the spatial patterns of criminal activities at large scales, which may contribute for better political decisions and resources allocation as well as opens new possibilities for modeling criminal activities by setting up fundamental empirical patterns at large scales.

Application of geostatistics with Indicator Kriging for analyzing spatial variability of groundwater arsenic concentrations in Southwest Bangladesh.

PubMed

Hassan, M Manzurul; Atkins, Peter J

2011-01-01

This article seeks to explore the spatial variability of groundwater arsenic (As) concentrations in Southwestern Bangladesh. Facts about spatial pattern of As are important to understand the complex processes of As concentrations and its spatial predictions in the unsampled areas of the study site. The relevant As data for this study were collected from Southwest Bangladesh and were analyzed with Flow Injection Hydride Generation Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (FI-HG-AAS). A geostatistical analysis with Indicator Kriging (IK) was employed to investigate the regionalized variation of As concentration. The IK prediction map shows a highly uneven spatial pattern of arsenic concentrations. The safe zones are mainly concentrated in the north, central and south part of the study area in a scattered manner, while the contamination zones are found to be concentrated in the west and northeast parts of the study area. The southwest part of the study area is contaminated with a highly irregular pattern. A Generalized Linear Model (GLM) was also used to investigate the relationship between As concentrations and aquifer depths. A negligible negative correlation between aquifer depth and arsenic concentrations was found in the study area. The fitted value with 95 % confidence interval shows a decreasing tendency of arsenic concentrations with the increase of aquifer depth. The adjusted mean smoothed lowess curve with a bandwidth of 0.8 shows an increasing trend of arsenic concentration up to a depth of 75 m, with some erratic fluctuations and regional variations at the depth between 30 m and 60 m. The borehole lithology was considered to analyze and map the pattern of As variability with aquifer depths. The study has performed an investigation of spatial pattern and variation of As concentrations.

Global and regional variability and change in terrestrial ecosystems net primary production and NDVI: A model-data comparison

DOE PAGES

Rafique, Rashid; Zhao, Fang; de Jong, Rogier; ...

2016-02-25

The net primary productivity (NPP) is commonly used for understanding the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems and their role in carbon cycle. We used a combination of the most recent NDVI and model–based NPP estimates (from five models of the TRENDY project) for the period 1982-2012, to study the role of terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle under the prevailing climate conditions. We found that 80% and 67% of the global land area showed positive NPP and NDVI values, respectively, for this period. The global NPP was estimated to be about 63 Pg C y -1, with an increase of 0.214 Pgmore » C y -1 y -1. Similarly, the global mean NDVI was estimated to be 0.33, with an increasing trend of 0.00041 y-1. The spatial patterns of NPP and NDVI demonstrated substantial variability, especially at the regional level, for most part of the globe. However, on temporal scale, both global NPP and NDVI showed a corresponding pattern of increase (decrease) for the duration of this study except for few years (e.g. 1990 and 1995-98). Generally, the Northern Hemisphere showed stronger NDVI and NPP increasing trends over time compared to the Southern Hemisphere; however, NDVI showed larger trends in Temperate regions while NPP showed larger trends in Boreal regions. Among the five models, the maximum and minimum NPP were produced by JULES (72.4 Pg C y -1) and LPJ (53.72 Pg C y -1) models, respectively. At latitudinal level, the NDVI and NPP ranges were ~0.035 y -1 to ~-0.016 y -1 and ~0.10 Pg C y -1 y -1 to ~-0.047 Pg C y -1 y -1, respectively. Overall, the results of this study suggest that the modeled NPP generally correspond to the NDVI trends in the temporal dimension. Lastly, the significant variability in spatial patterns of NPP and NDVI trends points to a need for research to understand the causes of these discrepancies between molded and observed ecosystem dynamics, and the carbon cycle.« less

Seasonal differences in aerosol water may reconcile AOT and surface mass measurements in the Southeast U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, T. K. V.; Ghate, V. P.; Carlton, A. M. G.

2015-12-01

Summertime aerosol optical thickness (AOT) in the Southeast U.S. is high and sharply enhanced (2-3 times) compared to wintertime AOT. This seasonal pattern is unique to the Southeast U.S. and is of particular interest because temperatures there have not warmed over the past 100 years, contrasting with trends in other U.S. regions. Some investigators hypothesize the Southeast temperature trend is due to secondary organic aerosols (SOA) formed from interactions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and anthropogenic emissions that create a cooling haze. However, aerosol measurements made at the surface do not exhibit strong seasonal differences in mass or organic fraction to support this hypothesis. In this work, we attempt to reconcile the spatial and temporal distribution of AOT over the U.S. with surface mass measurements by examining trends in particle-phase liquid water, an aerosol constituent that effectively scatters radiation and is removed from aerosols in mass measurements at routine surface monitoring sites. We employ the thermodynamic model ISORROPIA (v2.1) to estimate surface and aloft aerosol water mass concentrations at locations of Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) sites using measured speciated ion mass concentrations and NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) meteorological data. Results demonstrate strong seasonal differences in aerosol water in the eastern compared to the western part of the U.S., consistent with geographic patterns in AOT. The highest mean regional seasonal difference from 2000 to 2007 is 5.5 μg m-3 and occurs the Southeast, while the lowest is 0.44 μg m-3 and occurs in the dry Mountain West. Our findings suggest 1) similarity between spatial trends in aerosol water in the U.S. and previously published AOT data from the MODIS-TERRA instrument and 2) similar interannual trends in mean aerosol water and previously published interannual AOT trends from MISR, MODIS-TERRA, MODIS-AQUA, and the Walker Branch AERONET site. These aerosol water results provide a plausible explanation for the geographical and seasonal patterns in AOT, and reconcile AOT with surface mass networks.

Spatial-Temporal Survey and Occupancy-Abundance Modeling To Predict Bacterial Community Dynamics in the Drinking Water Microbiome

PubMed Central

Pinto, Ameet J.; Schroeder, Joanna; Lunn, Mary; Sloan, William

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT Bacterial communities migrate continuously from the drinking water treatment plant through the drinking water distribution system and into our built environment. Understanding bacterial dynamics in the distribution system is critical to ensuring that safe drinking water is being supplied to customers. We present a 15-month survey of bacterial community dynamics in the drinking water system of Ann Arbor, MI. By sampling the water leaving the treatment plant and at nine points in the distribution system, we show that the bacterial community spatial dynamics of distance decay and dispersivity conform to the layout of the drinking water distribution system. However, the patterns in spatial dynamics were weaker than those for the temporal trends, which exhibited seasonal cycling correlating with temperature and source water use patterns and also demonstrated reproducibility on an annual time scale. The temporal trends were driven by two seasonal bacterial clusters consisting of multiple taxa with different networks of association within the larger drinking water bacterial community. Finally, we show that the Ann Arbor data set robustly conforms to previously described interspecific occupancy abundance models that link the relative abundance of a taxon to the frequency of its detection. Relying on these insights, we propose a predictive framework for microbial management in drinking water systems. Further, we recommend that long-term microbial observatories that collect high-resolution, spatially distributed, multiyear time series of community composition and environmental variables be established to enable the development and testing of the predictive framework. PMID:24865557

Canadian Boreal Forest Greening and Browning Trends: An Analysis of Biogeographic Patterns and the Relative Roles of Disturbance versus Climate Drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulla-menashe, D. J.; Woodcock, C. E.; Friedl, M. A.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have used satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) to explore geographic patterns in boreal forest greening and browning. A number of these studies indicate that boreal forests are experiencing widespread browning, and have suggested that these patterns reflect decreases in forest productivity induced by climate change. A key limitation of these studies, however, is their reliance on AVHRR data, which provides imagery with very coarse spatial resolution and lower radiometric quality relative to other available remote sensing time series. Here we use NDVI time series from Landsat, which has much higher radiometric quality and spatial resolution than AVHRR, to characterize spatial patterns in greening and browning across Canada's boreal forest and to explore the drivers behind the observed trends. Our results show that the majority of NDVI changes in Canada's boreal forest reflect disturbance-recovery dynamics not climate change impacts, that greening and browning trends outside of disturbed forests are consistent with expected ecological responses to regional changes in climate, and that observed NDVI changes are geographically limited and relatively small in magnitude. Consistent with biogeographic theory, greening and browning unrelated to disturbance tended to be located in ecotones near boundaries of the boreal forest bioclimatic envelope. We observe greening to be most prevalent in Eastern Canada, which is more humid, and browning to be most prevalent in Western Canada, where there is more moisture stress. We conclude that continued long-term climate change has the potential to significantly alter the character and function of Canada's boreal forest, but recent changes have been modest and near-term impacts are likely to be focused in or near ecotones. As part of a NASA funded project supporting the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE), we have extended the scope of this study from a set of 46 sites to the entire ABoVE domain covering Alaska and Northwestern Canada (over 6 million square kilometers). Using the full Landsat record, we will also be investigating climate change impacts to the timing of leaf phenology and disturbance frequency in these rapidly warming regions.

Himalayan glaciers: understanding contrasting patterns of glacier behavior using multi-temporal satellite imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Racoviteanu, A.

2014-12-01

High rates of glacier retreat for the last decades are often reported, and believed to be induced by 20th century climate changes. However, regional glacier fluctuations are complex, and depend on a combination of climate and local topography. Furthermore, in ares such as the Hindu-Kush Himalaya, there are concerns about warming, decreasing monsoon precipitation and their impact on local glacier regimes. Currently, the challenge is in understanding the magnitude of feedbacks between large-scale climate forcing and small-scale glacier behavior. Spatio-temporal patterns of glacier distribution are still llimited in some areas of the high Hindu-Kush Himalaya, but multi-temporal satellite imagery has helped fill spatial and temporal gaps in regional glacier parameters in the last decade. Here I present a synopsis of the behavior of glaciers across the Himalaya, following a west to east gradient. In particular, I focus on spatial patterns of glacier parameters in the eastern Himalaya, which I investigate at multi-spatial scales using remote sensing data from declassified Corona, ASTER, Landsat ETM+, Quickbird and Worldview2 sensors. I also present the use of high-resolution imagery, including texture and thermal analysis for mapping glacier features at small scale, which are particularly useful in understanding surface trends of debris-covered glaciers, which are prevalent in the Himalaya. I compare and contrast spatial patterns of glacier area and élévation changes in the monsoon-influenced eastern Himalaya (the Everest region in the Nepal Himalaya and Sikkim in the Indian Himalaya) with other observations from the dry western Indian Himalaya (Ladakh and Lahul-Spiti), both field measurements and remote sensing-based. In the eastern Himalaya, results point to glacier area change of -0.24 % ± 0.08% per year from the 1960's to the 2006's, with a higher rate of retreat in the last decade (-0.43% /yr). Debris-covered glacier tongues show thinning trends of -30.8 m± 39 m on average over the last four decades, similar to other studies in the same climatic area. However, at small scales, the behavior of glaciers is highly heterogenous, with contrasting patterns of thickening glacier termini versus retreating nad thinning glacier tongues.

Mining spatiotemporal patterns of urban dwellers from taxi trajectory data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Feng; Ji, Minhe; Liu, Ting

2016-06-01

With the widespread adoption of locationaware technology, obtaining long-sequence, massive and high-accuracy spatiotemporal trajectory data of individuals has become increasingly popular in various geographic studies. Trajectory data of taxis, one of the most widely used inner-city travel modes, contain rich information about both road network traffic and travel behavior of passengers. Such data can be used to study the microscopic activity patterns of individuals as well as the macro system of urban spatial structures. This paper focuses on trajectories obtained from GPS-enabled taxis and their applications for mining urban commuting patterns. A novel approach is proposed to discover spatiotemporal patterns of household travel from the taxi trajectory dataset with a large number of point locations. The approach involves three critical steps: spatial clustering of taxi origin-destination (OD) based on urban traffic grids to discover potentially meaningful places, identifying threshold values from statistics of the OD clusters to extract urban jobs-housing structures, and visualization of analytic results to understand the spatial distribution and temporal trends of the revealed urban structures and implied household commuting behavior. A case study with a taxi trajectory dataset in Shanghai, China is presented to demonstrate and evaluate the proposed method.

Long-term (10 year) trends in the chemistry of urban streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groffman, P. M.; Band, L. E.; Belt, K. T.; Kaushal, S.; Fisher, G. T.

2010-12-01

Weekly sampling of eight streams in the Baltimore metropolitan area has been carried out since 1998 as part of the NSF funded Baltimore urban Long-Term Ecological Research (BES LTER) project. The BES watersheds include 100% forested and agricultural catchments and developed watersheds ranging from very low-density (<1% impervious surface) suburban watersheds serviced by septic systems to more dense (> 40% impervious surface) urban watersheds. Stream discharge is continuously monitored at these sites by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Stream samples are collected weekly regardless of flow conditions (no bias towards storm versus baseflow) and analyzed for nitrate, total nitrogen (N), phosphate, total phosphorus (P), chloride and sulfate. Ten-year analysis of the BES long-term study sites reveals several interesting spatial and temporal patterns. For N, the highest concentrations were found in the agricultural and suburban watersheds, followed by the urban sites, and finally by the forested site. Organic N was most important as a proportion of total N in the urban and forested sites. Spatial patterns in P were more complex, with urban, suburban and agricultural sites having the highest values. Over the ten year record, many sites showed significant changes in N concentrations, but few sites showed consistent patterns in P. The patterns in N were quite variable however, with some sites showing striking increases, while others showed striking decreases. Most (7 of 8) sites showed a decrease in the proportion of organic N, the trend was significant at 4 of the sites. There were few trends in the proportion of organic P. Discharge was a significant driver of variation in N and P export at some (mostly smaller watersheds) sites, for some solutes, but was not an overwhelmingly important driver of temporal variation. Key factors driving long-term patterns include climate variation and efforts to improve urban stream water quality by municipal authorities.

Trends in Upper-Level Cloud Cover and Surface Divergence Over the Tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean Between 1952 And 1997

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, Joel R.

2005-01-01

This study investigated the spatial pattern of linear trends in surface-observed upper-level (combined mid-level and High-level) cloud cover, precipitation, and surface divergence over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean during 1952-1957. Cloud values were obtained from the Extended Edited Cloud Report Archive (EECRA), precipitation values were obtained from the Hulme/Climate Research Unit Data Set, and surface divergence was alternatively calculated from wind reported Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set and from Smith and Reynolds Extended Reconstructed sea level pressure data.

Effects of increasing aerosol on regional climate change in China: Observation and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Y.; Leung, L.; Ghan, S. J.

2002-12-01

We present regional simulations of climate, aerosol properties, and direct radiative forcing and climatic effects of aerosol and analyze the pollutant emissions and observed climatic data during the latter decades of last century in China. The regional model generally captures the spatial distributions and seasonal pattern of temperature and precipitation. Aerosol extinction coefficient and aerosol optical depth are generally well simulated in both magnitude and spatial distribution, which provides a reliable foundation for estimating the radiative forcing and climatic effects of aerosol. The radiative forcing of aerosol is in the range of -1 to -14 W m-2 in autumn and summer and -1 to -9 W m-2 in spring and winter, with substantial spatial variability at the sub-regional scale. A strong maximum in negative radiative forcing corresponding to the maximum optical depth is found over the Sichuan Basin, where emission as well as relative humidity are high, and stagnant atmospheric conditions inhibit pollutants dispersion. Negative radiative forcing of aerosol induces a surface cooling, which is stronger in the range of -0.6 to -1.2oC in autumn and winter than in spring (-0.3 to -0.6oC) and summer (0.0 to -0.9oC) over the Sichuan Basin and East China due to more significant effects of cloud and precipitation in the summer and spring. Aerosol-induced cooling is mainly contributed by cooling in the daytime temperature. The cooling reaches a maximum and is statistically significant in the Sichuan Basin. The effect of aerosol on precipitation is not evident in our simulations. The temporal and spatial patterns of temperature trends observed in the second half of the twentieth century, including the asymmetric daily maximum and minimum temperature trends, are at least qualitatively consistent with the simulated aerosol-induced cooling over the Sichuan Basin and East China. It supports the hypothesis that the observed temperature trends during the latter decades of the twentieth century, especially the cooling trends over the Sichuan Basin and some parts of East China, which are exceptions to the large scale warming trend in the northern hemisphere, are at least partly related to the cooling induced by atmospheric aerosol loading that has been increasing since the middle of the last century.

Decreasing annual nest counts in a globally important loggerhead sea turtle population.

PubMed

Witherington, Blair; Kubilis, Paul; Brost, Beth; Meylan, Anne

2009-01-01

The loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nests on sand beaches, has both oceanic and neritic life stages, and migrates internationally. We analyzed an 18-year time series of Index Nesting Beach Survey (Index) nest-count data to describe spatial and temporal trends in loggerhead nesting on Florida (USA) beaches. The Index data were highly resolved: 368 fixed zones (mean length 0.88 km) were surveyed daily during annual 109-day survey seasons. Spatial and seasonal coverage averaged 69% of estimated total nesting by loggerheads in the state. We carried out trend analyses on both annual survey-region nest-count totals (N = 18) and annual zone-level nest densities (N = 18 x 368 = 6624). In both analyses, negative binomial regression models were used to fit restricted cubic spline curves to aggregated nest counts. Between 1989 and 2006, loggerhead nest counts on Florida Index beaches increased and then declined, with a net decrease over the 18-year period. This pattern was evident in both a trend model of annual survey-region nest-count totals and a mixed-effect, "single-region" trend model of annual zone-level nest densities that took into account both spatial and temporal correlation between counts. We also saw this pattern in a zone-level model that allowed trend line shapes to vary between six coastal subregions. Annual mean zone-level nest density declined significantly (-28%; 95% CI: -34% to -21%) between 1989 and 2006 and declined steeply (-43%; 95% CI: -48% to -39%) during 1998-2006. Rates of change in annual mean nest density varied more between coastal subregions during the "mostly increasing" period prior to 1998 than during the "steeply declining" period after 1998. The excellent fits (observed vs. expected count R2 > 0.91) of the mixed-effect zone-level models confirmed the presence of strong, positive, within-zone autocorrelation (R > 0.93) between annual counts, indicating a remarkable year-to-year consistency in the longshore spatial distribution of nests over the survey region. We argue that the decline in annual loggerhead nest counts in peninsular Florida can best be explained by a decline in the number of adult female loggerheads in the population. Causes of this decline are explored.

Multi-decadal trend and space-time variability of sea level over the Indian Ocean since the 1950s: impact of decadal climate modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, W.; Stammer, D.; Meehl, G. A.; Hu, A.; Sienz, F.

2016-12-01

Sea level varies on decadal and multi-decadal timescales over the Indian Ocean. The variations are not spatially uniform, and can deviate considerably from the global mean sea level rise (SLR) due to various geophysical processes. One of these processes is the change of ocean circulation, which can be partly attributed to natural internal modes of climate variability. Over the Indian Ocean, the most influential climate modes on decadal and multi-decadal timescales are the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and decadal variability of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). Here, we first analyze observational datasets to investigate the impacts of IPO and IOD on spatial patterns of decadal and interdecadal (hereafter decal) sea level variability & multi-decadal trend over the Indian Ocean since the 1950s, using a new statistical approach of Bayesian Dynamical Linear regression Model (DLM). The Bayesian DLM overcomes the limitation of "time-constant (static)" regression coefficients in conventional multiple linear regression model, by allowing the coefficients to vary with time and therefore measuring "time-evolving (dynamical)" relationship between climate modes and sea level. For the multi-decadal sea level trend since the 1950s, our results show that climate modes and non-climate modes (the part that cannot be explained by climate modes) have comparable contributions in magnitudes but with different spatial patterns, with each dominating different regions of the Indian Ocean. For decadal variability, climate modes are the major contributors for sea level variations over most region of the tropical Indian Ocean. The relative importance of IPO and decadal variability of IOD, however, varies spatially. For example, while IOD decadal variability dominates IPO in the eastern equatorial basin (85E-100E, 5S-5N), IPO dominates IOD in causing sea level variations in the tropical southwest Indian Ocean (45E-65E, 12S-2S). To help decipher the possible contribution of external forcing to the multi-decadal sea level trend and decadal variability, we also analyze the model outputs from NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Experiments, and compare the results with our observational analyses.

Patterns of land use, extensification, and intensification of Brazilian agriculture.

PubMed

Dias, Lívia C P; Pimenta, Fernando M; Santos, Ana B; Costa, Marcos H; Ladle, Richard J

2016-08-01

Sustainable intensification of agriculture is one of the main strategies to provide global food security. However, its implementation raises enormous political, technological, and social challenges. Meeting these challenges will require, among other things, accurate information on the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural land use and yield. Here, we investigate historical patterns of agricultural land use (1940-2012) and productivity (1990-2012) in Brazil using a new high-resolution (approximately 1 km(2) ) spatially explicit reconstruction. Although Brazilian agriculture has been historically known for its extensification over natural vegetation (Amazon and Cerrado), data from recent years indicate that extensification has slowed down and was replaced by a strong trend of intensification. Our results provide the first comprehensive historical overview of agricultural land use and productivity in Brazil, providing clear insights to guide future territorial planning, sustainable agriculture, policy, and decision-making. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatial diffusion of raccoon rabies in Pennsylvania, USA.

PubMed

Moore, D A

1999-05-14

Identification of the geographic pattern of diffusion of a wildlife disease could lead to information regarding its control. The objective of this study was to model raccoon-rabies diffusion in Pennsylvania to identify geographic constraints on the diffusion pattern for potential use in bait-vaccination strategies. A trend-surface analysis (TSA) was used as a spatial filter for month to first report by county location. A cubic polynomial model was fitted (R2 = 0.80). Velocity vectors were calculated from the partial derivatives of the model and mapped to demonstrate the instantaneous speed of diffusion at each location. A main corridor of diffusion through the ridge and valley section of the state was evident early in the outbreak. Once the disease reached the northern counties, the disease moved west toward Ohio. I believe that TSA was useful in identifying the pattern of raccoon-rabies diffusion across the stage from the inherent noise of disease-reporting data.

Spatial trends in tidal flat shape and associated environmental parameters in South San Francisco Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bearman, J.A.; Friedrichs, Carl T.; Jaffe, B.E.; Foxgrover, A.C.

2010-01-01

Spatial trends in the shape of profiles of South San Francisco Bay (SSFB) tidal flats are examined using bathymetric and lidar data collected in 2004 and 2005. Eigenfunction analysis reveals a dominant mode of morphologic variability related to the degree of convexity or concavity in the cross-shore profileindicative of (i) depositional, tidally dominant or (ii) erosional, wave impacted conditions. Two contrasting areas of characteristic shapenorth or south of a constriction in estuary width located near the Dumbarton Bridgeare recognized. This pattern of increasing or decreasing convexity in the inner or outer estuary is correlated to spatial variability in external and internal environmental parameters, and observational results are found to be largely consistent with theoretical expectations. Tidal flat convexity in SSFB is observed to increase (in decreasing order of significance) in response to increased deposition, increased tidal range, decreased fetch length, decreased sediment grain size, and decreased tidal flat width. ?? 2010 Coastal Education and Research Foundation.

Spatial clustering of average risks and risk trends in Bayesian disease mapping.

PubMed

Anderson, Craig; Lee, Duncan; Dean, Nema

2017-01-01

Spatiotemporal disease mapping focuses on estimating the spatial pattern in disease risk across a set of nonoverlapping areal units over a fixed period of time. The key aim of such research is to identify areas that have a high average level of disease risk or where disease risk is increasing over time, thus allowing public health interventions to be focused on these areas. Such aims are well suited to the statistical approach of clustering, and while much research has been done in this area in a purely spatial setting, only a handful of approaches have focused on spatiotemporal clustering of disease risk. Therefore, this paper outlines a new modeling approach for clustering spatiotemporal disease risk data, by clustering areas based on both their mean risk levels and the behavior of their temporal trends. The efficacy of the methodology is established by a simulation study, and is illustrated by a study of respiratory disease risk in Glasgow, Scotland. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California.

PubMed

Swain, Daniel L; Horton, Daniel E; Singh, Deepti; Diffenbaugh, Noah S

2016-04-01

Recent evidence suggests that changes in atmospheric circulation have altered the probability of extreme climate events in the Northern Hemisphere. We investigate northeastern Pacific atmospheric circulation patterns that have historically (1949-2015) been associated with cool-season (October-May) precipitation and temperature extremes in California. We identify changes in occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns by measuring the similarity of the cool-season atmospheric configuration that occurred in each year of the 1949-2015 period with the configuration that occurred during each of the five driest, wettest, warmest, and coolest years. Our analysis detects statistically significant changes in the occurrence of atmospheric patterns associated with seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes. We also find a robust increase in the magnitude and subseasonal persistence of the cool-season West Coast ridge, resulting in an amplification of the background state. Changes in both seasonal mean and extreme event configurations appear to be caused by a combination of spatially nonuniform thermal expansion of the atmosphere and reinforcing trends in the pattern of sea level pressure. In particular, both thermal expansion and sea level pressure trends contribute to a notable increase in anomalous northeastern Pacific ridging patterns similar to that observed during the 2012-2015 California drought. Collectively, our empirical findings suggest that the frequency of atmospheric conditions like those during California's most severely dry and hot years has increased in recent decades, but not necessarily at the expense of patterns associated with extremely wet years.

Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California

PubMed Central

Swain, Daniel L.; Horton, Daniel E.; Singh, Deepti; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2016-01-01

Recent evidence suggests that changes in atmospheric circulation have altered the probability of extreme climate events in the Northern Hemisphere. We investigate northeastern Pacific atmospheric circulation patterns that have historically (1949–2015) been associated with cool-season (October-May) precipitation and temperature extremes in California. We identify changes in occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns by measuring the similarity of the cool-season atmospheric configuration that occurred in each year of the 1949–2015 period with the configuration that occurred during each of the five driest, wettest, warmest, and coolest years. Our analysis detects statistically significant changes in the occurrence of atmospheric patterns associated with seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes. We also find a robust increase in the magnitude and subseasonal persistence of the cool-season West Coast ridge, resulting in an amplification of the background state. Changes in both seasonal mean and extreme event configurations appear to be caused by a combination of spatially nonuniform thermal expansion of the atmosphere and reinforcing trends in the pattern of sea level pressure. In particular, both thermal expansion and sea level pressure trends contribute to a notable increase in anomalous northeastern Pacific ridging patterns similar to that observed during the 2012–2015 California drought. Collectively, our empirical findings suggest that the frequency of atmospheric conditions like those during California’s most severely dry and hot years has increased in recent decades, but not necessarily at the expense of patterns associated with extremely wet years. PMID:27051876

Prognostic significance of inverse spatial QRS-T angle circadian pattern in myocardial infarction survivors.

PubMed

Giannopoulos, Georgios; Dilaveris, Polychronis; Batchvarov, Velislav; Synetos, Andreas; Hnatkova, Katerina; Gatzoulis, Konstantinos; Malik, Marek; Stefanadis, Christodoulos

2009-01-01

We investigated the predictive value of the spatial QRS-T angle (QRSTA) circadian variation in myocardial infarction (MI) patients. Analyzing 24-hour recordings (SEER MC, GE Marquette) from 151 MI patients (age 63 +/- 12.7), the QRSTA was computed in derived XYZ leads. QRS-T angle values were compared between daytime and night time. The end point was cardiac death or life-threatening ventricular arrhythmia in 1 year. Overall, QRSTA was slightly higher during the day vs. the night (91 degrees vs. 87 degrees, P = .005). However, 33.8% of the patients showed an inverse diurnal QRSTA variation (higher values at night), which was correlated to the outcome (P = .001, odds ratio 6.7). In multivariate analysis, after entering all factors exhibiting univariate trend towards significance, inverse QRSTA circadian pattern remained significant (P = .036). Inverse QRSTA circadian pattern was found to be associated with adverse outcome (22.4%) in MI patients, whereas a normal pattern was associated (96%) with a favorable outcome.

Spatial and temporal analysis of fatal off-piste and backcountry avalanche accidents in Austria with a comparison of results in Switzerland, France, Italy and the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfeifer, Christian; Höller, Peter; Zeileis, Achim

2018-02-01

In this article we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fatal Austrian avalanche accidents caused by backcountry and off-piste skiers and snowboarders within the winter periods 1967/1968-2015/2016. The data were based on reports of the Austrian Board for Alpine Safety and reports of the information services of the federal states. Using the date and the location of the recorded avalanche accidents, we were able to carry out spatial and temporal analyses applying generalized additive models and Markov random-field models. As a result of the trend analysis we noticed an increasing trend of backcountry and off-piste avalanche fatalities within the winter periods 1967/1968-2015/2016 (although slightly decreasing in recent years), which is in contradiction to the widespread opinion in Austria that the number of fatalities is constant over time. Additionally, we compared Austrian results with results of Switzerland, France, Italy and the US based on data from the International Commission of Alpine Rescue (ICAR). As a result of the spatial analysis, we noticed two hot spots of avalanche fatalities (Arlberg-Silvretta and Sölden). Because of the increasing trend and the rather narrow regional distribution of the fatalities, initiatives aimed at preventing avalanche accidents were highly recommended.

Space and time scales of shoreline change at Cape Cod National Seashore, MA, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, J.R.; LaBash, C.L.; List, J.H.; Kraus, Nicholas C.; McDougal, William G.

1999-01-01

Different processes cause patterns of shoreline change which are exhibited at different magnitudes and nested into different spatial and time scale hierarchies. The 77-km outer beach at Cape Cod National Seashore offers one of the few U.S. federally owned portions of beach to study shoreline change within the full range of sediment source and sink relationships, and barely affected by human intervention. 'Mean trends' of shoreline changes are best observed at long time scales but contain much spatial variation thus many sites are not equal in response. Long-term, earlier-noted trends are confirmed but the added quantification and resolution improves greatly the understanding of appropriate spatial and time scales of those processes driving bluff retreat and barrier island changes in both north and south depocenters. Shorter timescales allow for comparison of trends and uncertainty in shoreline change at local scales but are dependent upon some measure of storm intensity and seasonal frequency. Single-event shoreline survey results for one storm at daily intervals after the erosional phase suggest a recovery time for the system of six days, identifies three sites with abnormally large change, and that responses at these sites are spatially coherent for now unknown reasons. Areas near inlets are the most variable at all time scales. Hierarchies in both process and form are suggested.

The effect of length and starting year on trend analyses of temperatures in Spanish mainland (1951-2010). Seasonal analyses: Autumn (V)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas Solé, Celia; Peña Angulo, Dhais; Gonzalez HIgaldo, Jose Carlos; Brunetti, MIchele

2017-04-01

In this poster we applied the moving window approach (see Poster I of this collection) to analyze trends of autumn and its corresponding months (September, October, November) temperature mean values of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) in Spanish mainland to detect the effects of length period and starting year. Monthly series belong to Monthly Temperature dataset of Spanish mainland (MOTEDAS). Database contains in its grid format of 5236 pixels of monthly series (10x10 km). The threshold used in spatial analyses considers 20% of land under significant trend (p<0.05). The most striking results are as follow: • Seasonal trend analyses of Autumn Tmax show no significance at any temporal Windows. Trends of Tmin are significant in more than 20% of land until 1974-2010. The area affected in Tmin progressively increase from SE to NW. • Monthly trend analyses not detect any significance in Tmax, while in Tmin, particularly in October, an extended area is detected in temporal windows in between 1951-2010 to 1978-2010, but clearly concentrated in the starting years of initial 70´s. Spatial pattern of areas affected significantly seems to be from SE to NW for October, and South-North in September. To conclude autumn trend analyses of Tmax and Tmin in Spanish mainland only detect significant trend in Tmin, mostly located in the 70´s and extending from SE to central areas of study area.

Trends in spatio-temporal dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis cases in a highly-endemic focus of Bihar, India: an investigation based on GIS tools.

PubMed

Mandal, Rakesh; Kesari, Shreekant; Kumar, Vijay; Das, Pradeep

2018-04-02

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Bihar State (India) continues to be endemic, despite the existence of effective treatment and a vector control program to control disease morbidity. A clear understanding of spatio-temporal distribution of VL may improve surveillance and control implementation. This study explored the trends in spatio-temporal dynamics of VL endemicity at a meso-scale level in Vaishali District, based on geographical information systems (GIS) tools and spatial statistical analysis. A GIS database was used to integrate the VL case data from the study area between 2009 and 2014. All cases were spatially linked at a meso-scale level. Geospatial techniques, such as GIS-layer overlaying and mapping, were employed to visualize and detect the spatio-temporal patterns of a VL endemic outbreak across the district. The spatial statistic Moran's I Index (Moran's I) was used to simultaneously evaluate spatial-correlation between endemic villages and the spatial distribution patterns based on both the village location and the case incidence rate (CIR). Descriptive statistics such as mean, standard error, confidence intervals and percentages were used to summarize the VL case data. There were 624 endemic villages with 2719 (average 906 cases/year) VL cases during 2012-2014. The Moran's I revealed a cluster pattern (P < 0.05) of CIR distribution at the meso-scale level. On average, 68 villages were newly-endemic each year. Of which 93.1% of villages' endemicity were found to have occurred on the peripheries of the previous year endemic villages. The mean CIR of the endemic villages that were peripheral to the following year newly-endemic villages, compared to all endemic villages of the same year, was higher (P < 0.05). The results show that the VL endemicity of new villages tends to occur on the periphery of villages endemic in the previous year. High-CIR plays a major role in the spatial dispersion of the VL cases between non-endemic and endemic villages. This information can help achieve VL elimination throughout the Indian subcontinent by improving vector control design and implementation in highly-endemic district.

a Web-Based Framework for Visualizing Industrial Spatiotemporal Distribution Using Standard Deviational Ellipse and Shifting Routes of Gravity Centers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Y.; Gui, Z.; Wu, H.; Wei, Y.

2017-09-01

Analysing spatiotemporal distribution patterns and its dynamics of different industries can help us learn the macro-level developing trends of those industries, and in turn provides references for industrial spatial planning. However, the analysis process is challenging task which requires an easy-to-understand information presentation mechanism and a powerful computational technology to support the visual analytics of big data on the fly. Due to this reason, this research proposes a web-based framework to enable such a visual analytics requirement. The framework uses standard deviational ellipse (SDE) and shifting route of gravity centers to show the spatial distribution and yearly developing trends of different enterprise types according to their industry categories. The calculation of gravity centers and ellipses is paralleled using Apache Spark to accelerate the processing. In the experiments, we use the enterprise registration dataset in Mainland China from year 1960 to 2015 that contains fine-grain location information (i.e., coordinates of each individual enterprise) to demonstrate the feasibility of this framework. The experiment result shows that the developed visual analytics method is helpful to understand the multi-level patterns and developing trends of different industries in China. Moreover, the proposed framework can be used to analyse any nature and social spatiotemporal point process with large data volume, such as crime and disease.

Evaluating single-pass catch as a tool for identifying spatial pattern in fish distribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bateman, Douglas S.; Gresswell, Robert E.; Torgersen, Christian E.

2005-01-01

We evaluate the efficacy of single-pass electrofishing without blocknets as a tool for collecting spatially continuous fish distribution data in headwater streams. We compare spatial patterns in abundance, sampling effort, and length-frequency distributions from single-pass sampling of coastal cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki clarki) to data obtained from a more precise multiple-pass removal electrofishing method in two mid-sized (500–1000 ha) forested watersheds in western Oregon. Abundance estimates from single- and multiple-pass removal electrofishing were positively correlated in both watersheds, r = 0.99 and 0.86. There were no significant trends in capture probabilities at the watershed scale (P > 0.05). Moreover, among-sample variation in fish abundance was higher than within-sample error in both streams indicating that increased precision of unit-scale abundance estimates would provide less information on patterns of abundance than increasing the fraction of habitat units sampled. In the two watersheds, respectively, single-pass electrofishing captured 78 and 74% of the estimated population of cutthroat trout with 7 and 10% of the effort. At the scale of intermediate-sized watersheds, single-pass electrofishing exhibited a sufficient level of precision to be effective in detecting spatial patterns of cutthroat trout abundance and may be a useful tool for providing the context for investigating fish-habitat relationships at multiple scales.

Multivariate detrending of fMRI signal drifts for real-time multiclass pattern classification.

PubMed

Lee, Dongha; Jang, Changwon; Park, Hae-Jeong

2015-03-01

Signal drift in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is an unavoidable artifact that limits classification performance in multi-voxel pattern analysis of fMRI. As conventional methods to reduce signal drift, global demeaning or proportional scaling disregards regional variations of drift, whereas voxel-wise univariate detrending is too sensitive to noisy fluctuations. To overcome these drawbacks, we propose a multivariate real-time detrending method for multiclass classification that involves spatial demeaning at each scan and the recursive detrending of drifts in the classifier outputs driven by a multiclass linear support vector machine. Experiments using binary and multiclass data showed that the linear trend estimation of the classifier output drift for each class (a weighted sum of drifts in the class-specific voxels) was more robust against voxel-wise artifacts that lead to inconsistent spatial patterns and the effect of online processing than voxel-wise detrending. The classification performance of the proposed method was significantly better, especially for multiclass data, than that of voxel-wise linear detrending, global demeaning, and classifier output detrending without demeaning. We concluded that the multivariate approach using classifier output detrending of fMRI signals with spatial demeaning preserves spatial patterns, is less sensitive than conventional methods to sample size, and increases classification performance, which is a useful feature for real-time fMRI classification. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temporal trends and spatial distribution of unsafe abortion in Brazil, 1996-2012

PubMed Central

Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Lima, Mauricélia da Silveira; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Ramos, Alberto Novaes; Carvalho, Francisco Herlânio Costa; Machado, Márcia Maria Tavares; Heukelbach, Jorg

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE To analyze temporal trends and distribution patterns of unsafe abortion in Brazil. METHODS Ecological study based on records of hospital admissions of women due to abortion in Brazil between 1996 and 2012, obtained from the Hospital Information System of the Ministry of Health. We estimated the number of unsafe abortions stratified by place of residence, using indirect estimate techniques. The following indicators were calculated: ratio of unsafe abortions/100 live births and rate of unsafe abortion/1,000 women of childbearing age. We analyzed temporal trends through polynomial regression and spatial distribution using municipalities as the unit of analysis. RESULTS In the study period, a total of 4,007,327 hospital admissions due to abortions were recorded in Brazil. We estimated a total of 16,905,911 unsafe abortions in the country, with an annual mean of 994,465 abortions (mean unsafe abortion rate: 17.0 abortions/1,000 women of childbearing age; ratio of unsafe abortions: 33.2/100 live births). Unsafe abortion presented a declining trend at national level (R2: 94.0%, p < 0.001), with unequal patterns between regions. There was a significant reduction of unsafe abortion in the Northeast (R2: 93.0%, p < 0.001), Southeast (R2: 92.0%, p < 0.001) and Central-West regions (R2: 64.0%, p < 0.001), whereas the North (R2: 39.0%, p = 0.030) presented an increase, and the South (R2: 22.0%, p = 0.340) remained stable. Spatial analysis identified the presence of clusters of municipalities with high values for unsafe abortion, located mainly in states of the North, Northeast and Southeast Regions. CONCLUSIONS Unsafe abortion remains a public health problem in Brazil, with marked regional differences, mainly concentrated in the socioeconomically disadvantaged regions of the country. Qualification of attention to women’s health, especially to reproductive aspects and attention to pre- and post-abortion processes, are necessary and urgent strategies to be implemented in the country. PMID:25119946

Spatial and temporal diet patterns of subadult and small adult striped bass in Massachusetts estuaries: Data, a synthesis, and trends across scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ferry, K.H.; Mather, Martha E.

2012-01-01

Subadult and small adult (375–475 mm total length) striped bass Morone saxatilis are abundant and represent an important component of the recovered U.S. Atlantic coast stocks. However, little is known about these large aggregations of striped bass during their annual foraging migrations to New England. A quantitative understanding of trends in the diets of subadult and small adult migrants is critical to research and management. Because of the complexity of the Massachusetts coast, we were able to compare diets at multiple spatial, temporal, and taxonomic scales and evaluate which of these provided the greatest insights into the foraging patterns of this size of fish. Specifically, during spring through autumn, we quantified the diets of 797 migratory striped bass collected from 13 Massachusetts estuaries distributed among three geographic regions in two biogeographic provinces. Our data provided three useful results. First, subadult and young adult striped bass ate a season-specific mixture of fish and invertebrates. For example, more juvenile Atlantic herring Clupea harengus were eaten in spring than in summer or autumn, more juvenile Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus were eaten in autumn than in spring or summer, amphipods were eaten primarily in the southern biogeographic province, and shrimp Crangon sp. were eaten in all locations and seasons. Second, examining diets by season was essential because of the temporal variability in striped bass prey. Grouping prey by fish and invertebrates revealed the potential for predictable differences in growth across geographic locations and seasons, based on the output from simple bioenergetics simulations. Third, of the three spatial scales examined, region provided the most quantitative and interpretable ecological trends. Our results demonstrate the utility of comparing multiple scales to evaluate the best way to depict diet trends in a migrating predator that seasonally uses different geographic locations.

Monitoring Functional Traits of Alpine Vegetation using Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.; Wulf, H.; Schaepman, M. E.; Schmid, B.

2016-12-01

Plant functional traits can be used to study the interactions between plants and ecosystem functioning as well as the response of plants to various environmental pressures. Continuous monitoring of plant functional traits dynamics on a large spatial scale is important to understand the mechanisms of ecosystem function degradation, especially on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In this study, we investigated spatiotemporal trends of functional traits (i.e., chlorophyll content, phenology, leaf area index proxy of leaf size and above ground biomass proxy of leaf mass) in the eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on the combined analysis of multi-sensor satellite data and field observations at three spatial scales (ground-truth data at 1 m, Landsat at 30 m, MODIS at 500 m), and analyzed potential factors contribute to their spatiotemporal trends. Chlorophyll content (Chl) and biomass was retrieved based on 94 field plots measurements. LAI was analyzed using MCD15A3H product and estimated values using digital hemispherical photographs in the field. Plant phenology will be processed based on MODIS NDVI time series and hourly Phenocam observations. The preliminary results show that (1) Chl, LAI and biomass show high spatial heterogeneity trends and increase in 2001 - 2015. (2) Elevation played an important role in the spatial pattern of LAI and Chl variation in 15 years. A dividing line of approximately 3800 m exists and shows that below this line, LAI and Chl changes more complicated, showing significantly positive and negative linear trend. While above this altitude, the change rate of two variables keeps relatively stable. Vegetation in low elevation is exposed to high habitat diversity by showing high Chl, LAI and biomass spatial heterogeneity. The vegetation in high habitat diversity may be more sensitive to climatic variables and human activities than higher elevation since warming contribute to the positive trend of traits while human factors like urbanization might be explain negative trend in relative low altitude (below 3800 m). (3) Temperature contribute to the above functional traits variation than precipitation, especially temperature is more correlated to the functional traits of widely distributed vegetation type than narrow-ranging vegetation type.

Evolution of Canada’s Boreal Forest Spatial Patterns as Seen from Space

PubMed Central

Pickell, Paul D.; Coops, Nicholas C.; Gergel, Sarah E.; Andison, David W.; Marshall, Peter L.

2016-01-01

Understanding the development of landscape patterns over broad spatial and temporal scales is a major contribution to ecological sciences and is a critical area of research for forested land management. Boreal forests represent an excellent case study for such research because these forests have undergone significant changes over recent decades. We analyzed the temporal trends of four widely-used landscape pattern indices for boreal forests of Canada: forest cover, largest forest patch index, forest edge density, and core (interior) forest cover. The indices were computed over landscape extents ranging from 5,000 ha (n = 18,185) to 50,000 ha (n = 1,662) and across nine major ecozones of Canada. We used 26 years of Landsat satellite imagery to derive annualized trends of the landscape pattern indices. The largest declines in forest cover, largest forest patch index, and core forest cover were observed in the Boreal Shield, Boreal Plain, and Boreal Cordillera ecozones. Forest edge density increased at all landscape extents for all ecozones. Rapidly changing landscapes, defined as the 90th percentile of forest cover change, were among the most forested initially and were characterized by four times greater decrease in largest forest patch index, three times greater increase in forest edge density, and four times greater decrease in core forest cover compared with all 50,000 ha landscapes. Moreover, approximately 18% of all 50,000 ha landscapes did not change due to a lack of disturbance. The pattern database results provide important context for forest management agencies committed to implementing ecosystem-based management strategies. PMID:27383055

Evolution of Canada's Boreal Forest Spatial Patterns as Seen from Space.

PubMed

Pickell, Paul D; Coops, Nicholas C; Gergel, Sarah E; Andison, David W; Marshall, Peter L

2016-01-01

Understanding the development of landscape patterns over broad spatial and temporal scales is a major contribution to ecological sciences and is a critical area of research for forested land management. Boreal forests represent an excellent case study for such research because these forests have undergone significant changes over recent decades. We analyzed the temporal trends of four widely-used landscape pattern indices for boreal forests of Canada: forest cover, largest forest patch index, forest edge density, and core (interior) forest cover. The indices were computed over landscape extents ranging from 5,000 ha (n = 18,185) to 50,000 ha (n = 1,662) and across nine major ecozones of Canada. We used 26 years of Landsat satellite imagery to derive annualized trends of the landscape pattern indices. The largest declines in forest cover, largest forest patch index, and core forest cover were observed in the Boreal Shield, Boreal Plain, and Boreal Cordillera ecozones. Forest edge density increased at all landscape extents for all ecozones. Rapidly changing landscapes, defined as the 90th percentile of forest cover change, were among the most forested initially and were characterized by four times greater decrease in largest forest patch index, three times greater increase in forest edge density, and four times greater decrease in core forest cover compared with all 50,000 ha landscapes. Moreover, approximately 18% of all 50,000 ha landscapes did not change due to a lack of disturbance. The pattern database results provide important context for forest management agencies committed to implementing ecosystem-based management strategies.

Spatial patterns of trends and teleconnections in climate indices relevant for Mexican maize

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewes, C. F.

2013-05-01

This study contributes to the discussion of climate trends in Mexico and the influence of hemispheric-scale variability patterns over the period 1950-2008. Its uniqueness is three-fold. First, the choice of climate indices under scrutiny aims to represent an agro-climatic perspective, geared towards maize in particular because of the major role this crop plays in Mexico's culture, diet, and economy. Second, the spatial resolution and coverage of these findings can be useful for interpretations at the local level (i.e. district or state), yet keeping the broad national picture in perspective. This should be particularly useful to agro-climate forecasting, assessment of impacts, and/or policy development. Third, this study uncovers a dominance of the North Atlantic over the Pacific Ocean in respect to remote influences on trend patterns in Mexico. Trends in precipitation show that east of the central highlands, the rainy season is starting later and becoming drier. The same is occurring along the Pacific coastal plain, but there an increase in extreme events is also observed. For south-central Mexico and the Yucatán, rains not only are starting earlier but intensity and frequency of extreme events are also increasing. In some of these areas dry days are becoming more frequent. Trends in temperature suggest that highlands are warming at faster rates than lowlands, which in some places are actually cooling. Warming in the fall-winter growing season is more pronounced than in the spring-summer growing season. On the other hand, cold spells during mid-summer are becoming more frequent over the highlands. Connections were found between these trends and large-scale variability patterns, namely El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific North America (PNA), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Caribbean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Interannual variability related to ENSO and the PNA, and trends towards more Niño-like conditions, are associated with increasing precipitation over the Yucatán and a few areas along the southern Pacific coast, and with more dry days - though accompanied by stronger extreme precipitation events - over southwestern Mexico. They are also associated with a delaying start of the rainy season in a narrow area just east of the south-central highlands and higher risk of frost during late-winter up in the highlands. Increasing Caribbean SSTs are associated with increasing temperatures over the mainland and stronger precipitation over the Yucatán. Variability in the NAO and its trend towards more positive phases is associated the drying trend in central Mexico, intensification of precipitation over the northwest, and also increasing temperatures over the entire mainland in both the warm and cold growing seasons. The atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic Ocean and its increasing tropical SSTs, have a larger and broader participation in Mexican trends than is noted with the Pacific counterparts.

Shifting patterns of ENSO variability from a 492-year South Pacific coral core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tangri, N.; Linsley, B. K.; Mucciarone, D.; Dunbar, R. B.

2017-12-01

Anticipating the impacts of ENSO in a changing climate requires detailed reconstructions of changes in its timing, amplitude, and spatial pattern, as well as attempts to attribute those changes to external forcing or internal variability. A continuous coral δ18O record from American Samoa, in the tropical South Pacific, sheds light on almost five centuries of these changes. We find evidence of internally-driven 50-100 year cycles with broad peaks of high variability punctuated by short transitions of low variability. We see a long, slow trend towards more frequent ENSO events, punctuated by sharp decreases in frequency; the 20th century in particular shows a strong trend towards higher-frequency ENSO. Due to the unique location of American Samoa with respect to ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, we infer changes in the spatial pattern of ENSO. American Samoa currently lies on the ENSO 3.4 nodal line - the boomerang shape that separates waters warmed by El Niño from those that cool. Closer examination reveals that SST around American Samoa displays opposing responses to Eastern and Central Pacific ENSO events. However, this has not always been the case; in the late 19th and early 20th century, SST responded similarly to both flavors of ENSO. We interpret this to mean a geographic narrowing towards the equator of the eastern Pacific El Niño SST anomaly pattern in the first half of the 20th century.

Evaluating spatial and temporal variations of rainfall erosivity, case of Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meshesha, Derege Tsegaye; Tsunekawa, Atsushi; Tsubo, Mitsuru; Haregeweyn, Nigussie; Adgo, Enyew

2015-02-01

Land degradation in many Ethiopian highlands occurs mainly due to high rainfall erosivity and poor soil conservation practices. Rainfall erosivity is an indicator of the precipitation energy and ability to cause soil erosion. In Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia, where the climate is characterized as arid and semiarid, rainfall is the main driver of soil erosion that in turn causes a serious expansion in land degradation. In order to evaluate the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall erosivity and its impact on soil erosion, long-term rainfall data (1980-2010) was used, and the monthly Fournier index (FI) and the annual modified Fournier index (MFI) were applied. Student's t test analysis was performed particularly to examine statistical significances of differences in average monthly and annual erosivity values. The result indicated that, in a similar spatial pattern with elevation and rainfall amount, average annual erosivity is also found being higher in western highlands of the valley and gradually decreased towards the east. The long-term average annual erosivity (MFI) showed a general decreasing trend in recent 10 years (2000-2010) as compared to previous 20 years (1980-1999). In most of the stations, average erosivity of main rainy months (May, June, July, and August) showed a decreasing trend, whereby some of them (about 33.3 %) are statically significant at 90 and 95 % confidence intervals but with high variation in spatial pattern of changes. The overall result of the study showed that rainfall aggression (erosivity) in the region has a general decreasing trend in the recent decade as compared to previous decades, especially in the western highlands of the valley. Hence, it implies that anthropogenic factors such as land use change being coupled with topography (steep slope) have largely contributed to increased soil erosion rate in the region.

Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there is a need for improvement in LULC theory and modeling capabilities to improve acceptance and use of regional- to national-scale LULC projections for the United States and elsewhere.

Meteorology-induced variations in the spatial behavior of summer ozone pollution in Central California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Ling; Harley, Robert A.; Brown, Nancy J.

Cluster analysis was applied to daily 8 h ozone maxima modeled for a summer season to characterize meteorology-induced variations in the spatial distribution of ozone. Principal component analysis is employed to form a reduced dimension set to describe and interpret ozone spatial patterns. The first three principal components (PCs) capture {approx}85% of total variance, with PC1 describing a general spatial trend, and PC2 and PC3 each describing a spatial contrast. Six clusters were identified for California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV) with two low, three moderate, and one high-ozone cluster. The moderate ozone clusters are distinguished by elevated ozone levels inmore » different parts of the valley: northern, western, and eastern, respectively. The SJV ozone clusters have stronger coupling with the San Francisco Bay area (SFB) than with the Sacramento Valley (SV). Variations in ozone spatial distributions induced by anthropogenic emission changes are small relative to the overall variations in ozone amomalies observed for the whole summer. Ozone regimes identified here are mostly determined by the direct and indirect meteorological effects. Existing measurement sites are sufficiently representative to capture ozone spatial patterns in the SFB and SV, but the western side of the SJV is under-sampled.« less

Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in Luanhe River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yixuan; Zhang, Ting; Chen, Xu; Li, Jianzhu; Feng, Ping

2018-02-01

The spatial and temporal characteristics of drought are investigated for Luanhe River basin, using monthly precipitation data from 26 stations covering the common period of 1958-2011. The spatial pattern of drought was assessed by applying principal component analysis (PCA) to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) computed on 3- and 12-month time scales. In addition, annual SPI and seasonal SPIs (including spring SPI, summer SPI, autumn SPI, and winter SPI) were also defined and considered in this study to characterize seasonal and annual drought conditions, respectively. For all seven SPI cases, three distinctive sub-regions with different temporal evolutions of droughts are well identified, respectively, representing the southeast, middle, and northwest of the Luanhe River basin. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test with a trend-free pre-whitening (TFPW) procedure and Sen's method were used to determine the temporal trends in the annual and seasonal SPI time series. The continuous wavelet transform (CWT) was employed for further detecting the periodical features of drought condition in each sub-region. Results of MK and Sen's tests show a general tendency of intensification in summer drought over the entire basin, while a significant mitigating trend in spring drought. On the whole, an aggravating trend of inter-annual drought is discovered across the basin. Based on the CWT, the drought variability in the basin is generally dominated by 16- to 64-month cycles, and the 2- to 6-year cycles appear to be obvious when concerned with annual and seasonal droughts. Furthermore, a cross wavelet analysis was performed to examine the possible links between the drought conditions and large-scale climate patterns. The teleconnections of ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO show significant influences on the regional droughts principally concentrated in the 16- to 64-month period, maybe responsible for the physical causes of the cyclical behavior of drought occurrences. PDO and AMO also highlight a noteworthy correlation with drought variability on a decadal scale (around 128-month period). The findings of this study will provide valuable references for regional drought mitigation and water resource management.

Reactive and anticipatory looking in 6-month-old infants during a visual expectation paradigm.

PubMed

Quan, Jeffry; Bureau, Jean-François; Abdul Malik, Adam B; Wong, Johnny; Rifkin-Graboi, Anne

2017-10-01

This article presents data from 278 six-month-old infants who completed a visual expectation paradigm in which audiovisual stimuli were first presented randomly (random phase), and then in a spatial pattern (pattern phase). Infants' eye gaze behaviour was tracked with a 60 Hz Tobii eye-tracker in order to measure two types of looking behaviour: reactive looking (i.e., latency to shift eye gaze in reaction to the appearance of stimuli) and anticipatory looking (i.e., percentage of time spent looking at the location where the next stimulus is about to appear during the inter-stimulus interval). Data pertaining to missing data and task order effects are presented. Further analyses show that infants' reactive looking was faster in the pattern phase, compared to the random phase, and their anticipatory looking increased from random to pattern phases. Within the pattern phase, infants' reactive looking showed a quadratic trend, with reactive looking time latencies peaking in the middle portion of the phase. Similarly, within the pattern phase, infants' anticipatory looking also showed a quadratic trend, with anticipatory looking peaking during the middle portion of the phase.

Exploring spatial patterns and drivers of forest fires in Portugal (1980-2014).

PubMed

Nunes, A N; Lourenço, L; Meira, A C Castro

2016-12-15

Information on the spatial incidence of fire ignition density and burnt area, trends and drivers of wildfires is vitally important in providing support for environmental and civil protection policies, designing appropriate prevention measures and allocating firefighting resources. The key objectives of this study were to analyse the geographical incidence and temporal trends for wildfires, as well as the main drivers of fire ignition and burnt area in Portugal on a municipal level. The results show that fires are not distributed uniformly throughout Portuguese territory, both in terms of ignition density and burnt area. One spot in the north-western area is well defined, covering 10% of the municipalities where more than one third of the total fire ignitions are concentrated. In >80% of Portuguese municipalities, ignition density has registered a positive trend since the 1980s. With regard to burnt area, 60% of the municipalities had a nil annual trend, 35% showed a positive trend and 5%, located mainly in the central region, revealed negative trends. Geographically weighted regression proved more efficient in identifying the most relevant physical and anthropogenic drivers of municipal wildfires in comparison with simple linear regression models. Topography, density of population, land cover and livestock were found to be significant in both ignition density and burnt area, although considerable variations were observed in municipal explanatory power. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Low-cost approaches to problem-driven hydrologic research: The case of Arkavathy watershed, India.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, V.; Ballukraya, P. N.; Jeremiah, K.; R, A.

2014-12-01

Groundwater depletion is a major problem in the Arkavathy Basin and it is the probable cause of declining flows in the Arkavathy River. However, investigating groundwater trends and groundwater-surface water linkages is extremely challenging in a data-scarce environment where basins are largely ungauged so there is very little historical data; often the data are missing, flawed or biased. Moreover, hard-rock aquifer data are very difficult to interpret. In the absence of reliable data, establishing a trend let alone the causal linkages is a severe challenge. We used a combination of low-cost, participatory, satellite based and conventional data collection methods to maximize spatial and temporal coverage of data. For instance, long-term groundwater trends are biased because only a few dug wells with non-representative geological conditions still have water - the vast majority of the monitoring wells drilled in the 1970s and 1980s have dried up. Instead, we relied on "barefoot hydrology" techniques. By conducting a comprehensive well census, engaging farmers in participatory groundwater monitoring and using locally available commercial borewell scanning techniques we have been able to better establish groundwater trends and spatial patterns.

Monitoring, analyzing and simulating of spatial-temporal changes of landscape pattern over mining area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Pei; Han, Ruimei; Wang, Shuangting

2014-11-01

According to the merits of remotely sensed data in depicting regional land cover and Land changes, multi- objective information processing is employed to remote sensing images to analyze and simulate land cover in mining areas. In this paper, multi-temporal remotely sensed data were selected to monitor the pattern, distri- bution and trend of LUCC and predict its impacts on ecological environment and human settlement in mining area. The monitor, analysis and simulation of LUCC in this coal mining areas are divided into five steps. The are information integration of optical and SAR data, LULC types extraction with SVM classifier, LULC trends simulation with CA Markov model, landscape temporal changes monitoring and analysis with confusion matrixes and landscape indices. The results demonstrate that the improved data fusion algorithm could make full use of information extracted from optical and SAR data; SVM classifier has an efficient and stable ability to obtain land cover maps, which could provide a good basis for both land cover change analysis and trend simulation; CA Markov model is able to predict LULC trends with good performance, and it is an effective way to integrate remotely sensed data with spatial-temporal model for analysis of land use / cover change and corresponding environmental impacts in mining area. Confusion matrixes are combined with landscape indices to evaluation and analysis show that, there was a sustained downward trend in agricultural land and bare land, but a continues growth trend tendency in water body, forest and other lands, and building area showing a wave like change, first increased and then decreased; mining landscape has undergone a from small to large and large to small process of fragmentation, agricultural land is the strongest influenced landscape type in this area, and human activities are the primary cause, so the problem should be pay more attentions by government and other organizations.

Long-term ground deformation patterns of Bucharest using multi-temporal InSAR and multivariate dynamic analyses: a possible transpressional system?

PubMed Central

Armaş, Iuliana; Mendes, Diana A.; Popa, Răzvan-Gabriel; Gheorghe, Mihaela; Popovici, Diana

2017-01-01

The aim of this exploratory research is to capture spatial evolution patterns in the Bucharest metropolitan area using sets of single polarised synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite data and multi-temporal radar interferometry. Three sets of SAR data acquired during the years 1992–2010 from ERS-1/-2 and ENVISAT, and 2011–2014 from TerraSAR-X satellites were used in conjunction with the Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) and persistent scatterers (PS) high-resolution multi-temporal interferometry (InSAR) techniques to provide maps of line-of-sight displacements. The satellite-based remote sensing results were combined with results derived from classical methodologies (i.e., diachronic cartography) and field research to study possible trends in developments over former clay pits, landfill excavation sites, and industrial parks. The ground displacement trend patterns were analysed using several linear and nonlinear models, and techniques. Trends based on the estimated ground displacement are characterised by long-term memory, indicated by low noise Hurst exponents, which in the long-term form interesting attractors. We hypothesize these attractors to be tectonic stress fields generated by transpressional movements. PMID:28252103

Long-term ground deformation patterns of Bucharest using multi-temporal InSAR and multivariate dynamic analyses: a possible transpressional system?

PubMed

Armaş, Iuliana; Mendes, Diana A; Popa, Răzvan-Gabriel; Gheorghe, Mihaela; Popovici, Diana

2017-03-02

The aim of this exploratory research is to capture spatial evolution patterns in the Bucharest metropolitan area using sets of single polarised synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite data and multi-temporal radar interferometry. Three sets of SAR data acquired during the years 1992-2010 from ERS-1/-2 and ENVISAT, and 2011-2014 from TerraSAR-X satellites were used in conjunction with the Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) and persistent scatterers (PS) high-resolution multi-temporal interferometry (InSAR) techniques to provide maps of line-of-sight displacements. The satellite-based remote sensing results were combined with results derived from classical methodologies (i.e., diachronic cartography) and field research to study possible trends in developments over former clay pits, landfill excavation sites, and industrial parks. The ground displacement trend patterns were analysed using several linear and nonlinear models, and techniques. Trends based on the estimated ground displacement are characterised by long-term memory, indicated by low noise Hurst exponents, which in the long-term form interesting attractors. We hypothesize these attractors to be tectonic stress fields generated by transpressional movements.

Multi-year mapping of irrigated croplands over the US High Plains Aquifer using satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deines, J.; Kendall, A. D.; Hyndman, D. W.

2016-12-01

Irrigated agriculture is the largest consumer of freshwater globally. Effective water management is crucial to support ongoing agricultural intensification to meet increasing demand for food, fuel, and fiber production. Knowledge of where and when irrigation occurs is critical for effective management and hydrological modeling, yet data on patterns of irrigation through time are surprisingly rare. Existing regional datasets in the United States tend to be either aspatial county-level estimates or static, single-year remotely sensed products with relatively low spatial resolution ( 250 m or coarser). Spatially explicit, dynamic maps are needed to understand water use trends, create accurate hydrological models, and inform forecasts of future water availability under projected climate change. In the High Plains Aquifer (HPA), repeat mapping efforts in 2002 and 2007 indicated only 60% of irrigated lands were static between these periods. To better understand annual irrigation dynamics, we used remote sensing to produce annual maps of irrigated cropland across the HPA region from a data fusion of Landsat satellites, annual time series of vegetation indices, and ancillary data such as precipitation, soil properties, and terrain slope. We performed machine learning classification using Google Earth Engine, allowing efficient image processing over a large region for multiple years. We then analyzed maps for water use trends and found that although total irrigated area has increased only slightly, there was substantial variability in the spatial pattern of irrigated lands over time. This dataset will support efforts towards groundwater sustainability by providing consistent, spatially explicit tracking of irrigation dynamics over time.

Revisiting AVHRR Tropospheric Aerosol Trends Using Principal Component Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Jing; Carlson, Barbara E.; Lacis, Andrew A.

2014-01-01

The advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) satellite instruments provide a nearly 25 year continuous record of global aerosol properties over the ocean. It offers valuable insights into the long-term change in global aerosol loading. However, the AVHRR data record is heavily influenced by two volcanic eruptions, El Chichon on March 1982 and Mount Pinatubo on June 1991. The gradual decay of volcanic aerosols may last years after the eruption, which potentially masks the estimation of aerosol trends in the lower troposphere, especially those of anthropogenic origin. In this study, we show that a principal component analysis approach effectively captures the bulk of the spatial and temporal variability of volcanic aerosols into a single mode. The spatial pattern and time series of this mode provide a good match to the global distribution and decay of volcanic aerosols. We further reconstruct the data set by removing the volcanic aerosol component and reestimate the global and regional aerosol trends. Globally, the reconstructed data set reveals an increase of aerosol optical depth from 1985 to 1990 and decreasing trend from 1994 to 2006. Regionally, in the 1980s, positive trends are observed over the North Atlantic and North Arabian Sea, while negative tendencies are present off the West African coast and North Pacific. During the 1994 to 2006 period, the Gulf of Mexico, North Atlantic close to Europe, and North Africa exhibit negative trends, while the coastal regions of East and South Asia, the Sahel region, and South America show positive trends.

Climate and weather influences on spatial temporal patterns of mountain pine beetle populations in Washington and Oregon

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Alan A. Ager; Jane L. Hayes

2012-01-01

Widespread outbreaks of mountain pine beetle in North America have drawn the attention of scientists, forest managers, and the public. There is strong evidence that climate change has contributed to the extent and severity of recent outbreaks. Scientists are interested in quantifying relationships between bark beetle population dynamics and trends in climate. Process...

Stability and Change in Female and Male Violence across Rural and Urban Counties, 1981-2006

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwartz, Jennifer; Gertseva, Arina

2010-01-01

Two durable criminological patterns have been higher violence rates in urban compared to rural areas and by males compared to females. To derive and evaluate hypotheses related to correspondence across place and sex groups in changes in violence trends, we draw on a spatial-inequality perspective that attends to the geographic distribution of…

The energy divide: Integrating energy transitions, regional inequalities and poverty trends in the European Union

PubMed Central

Bouzarovski, Stefan; Tirado Herrero, Sergio

2016-01-01

Energy poverty can be understood as the inability of a household to secure a socially and materially necessitated level of energy services in the home. While the condition is widespread across Europe, its spatial and social distribution is highly uneven. In this paper, the existence of a geographical energy poverty divide in the European Union (EU) provides a starting point for conceptualizing and exploring the relationship between energy transitions – commonly described as wide-ranging processes of socio-technical change – and existing patterns of regional economic inequality. We have undertaken a comprehensive analysis of spatial and temporal trends in the national-scale patterns of energy poverty, as well as gas and electricity prices. The results of our work indicate that the classic economic development distinction between the core and periphery also holds true in the case of energy poverty, as the incidence of this phenomenon is significantly higher in Southern and Eastern European EU Member States. The paper thus aims to provide the building blocks for a novel theoretical integration of questions of path-dependency, uneven development and material deprivation in existing interpretations of energy transitions. PMID:28690374

Lower Risk of Cancer in the Areas Inhabited by the German Minority in the Region of Opole, Poland.

PubMed

Chawińska, Ewa; Tukiendorf, Andrzej; Miszczyk, Leszek

2015-01-01

The lower risk of cancer in the areas inhabited by the German minority in the region of Opole, Poland, at the turn of the 1980's and 1990's has been already reported. A reanalysis of the present-day data was conducted. All the cancer cases (at all sites combined) registered within the years 2008-2012 with data collected by the Regional Cancer Registry in Opole were analyzed in this study. To estimate the risk of cancer in different spatial contexts, such as trends, clusters, and levels, modern geostatistical tools were applied. A statistically significant reduction of the cancer risk was reported in administrative units with ≥ 10% of the German minority. Average decreases in relative risk of 13% in men and 16% in women were estimated. The geographical patterns of the estimates are illustrated. The observed differences in the risk of cancer between the ethnic groups (Germans and repatriates) confirm a historical trend of the disease in the region of Opole, Poland. Some genetic, nutritional, or cultural aspects together with economic issues may play a role in the specified spatial disease patterns. © 2015 S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

Tundra landform and vegetation productivity trend maps for the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska

PubMed Central

Lara, Mark J.; Nitze, Ingmar; Grosse, Guido; McGuire, A. David

2018-01-01

Arctic tundra landscapes are composed of a complex mosaic of patterned ground features, varying in soil moisture, vegetation composition, and surface hydrology over small spatial scales (10–100 m). The importance of microtopography and associated geomorphic landforms in influencing ecosystem structure and function is well founded, however, spatial data products describing local to regional scale distribution of patterned ground or polygonal tundra geomorphology are largely unavailable. Thus, our understanding of local impacts on regional scale processes (e.g., carbon dynamics) may be limited. We produced two key spatiotemporal datasets spanning the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000 km2) to evaluate climate-geomorphological controls on arctic tundra productivity change, using (1) a novel 30 m classification of polygonal tundra geomorphology and (2) decadal-trends in surface greenness using the Landsat archive (1999–2014). These datasets can be easily integrated and adapted in an array of local to regional applications such as (1) upscaling plot-level measurements (e.g., carbon/energy fluxes), (2) mapping of soils, vegetation, or permafrost, and/or (3) initializing ecosystem biogeochemistry, hydrology, and/or habitat modeling. PMID:29633984

Tundra landform and vegetation productivity trend maps for the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lara, Mark J.; Nitze, Ingmar; Grosse, Guido; McGuire, A. David

2018-01-01

Arctic tundra landscapes are composed of a complex mosaic of patterned ground features, varying in soil moisture, vegetation composition, and surface hydrology over small spatial scales (10–100 m). The importance of microtopography and associated geomorphic landforms in influencing ecosystem structure and function is well founded, however, spatial data products describing local to regional scale distribution of patterned ground or polygonal tundra geomorphology are largely unavailable. Thus, our understanding of local impacts on regional scale processes (e.g., carbon dynamics) may be limited. We produced two key spatiotemporal datasets spanning the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000 km2) to evaluate climate-geomorphological controls on arctic tundra productivity change, using (1) a novel 30 m classification of polygonal tundra geomorphology and (2) decadal-trends in surface greenness using the Landsat archive (1999–2014). These datasets can be easily integrated and adapted in an array of local to regional applications such as (1) upscaling plot-level measurements (e.g., carbon/energy fluxes), (2) mapping of soils, vegetation, or permafrost, and/or (3) initializing ecosystem biogeochemistry, hydrology, and/or habitat modeling.

Observational Evidence for Desert Amplification Using Multiple Satellite Datasets.

PubMed

Wei, Nan; Zhou, Liming; Dai, Yongjiu; Xia, Geng; Hua, Wenjian

2017-05-17

Desert amplification identified in recent studies has large uncertainties due to data paucity over remote deserts. Here we present observational evidence using multiple satellite-derived datasets that desert amplification is a real large-scale pattern of warming mode in near surface and low-tropospheric temperatures. Trend analyses of three long-term temperature products consistently confirm that near-surface warming is generally strongest over the driest climate regions and this spatial pattern of warming maximizes near the surface, gradually decays with height, and disappears in the upper troposphere. Short-term anomaly analyses show a strong spatial and temporal coupling of changes in temperatures, water vapor and downward longwave radiation (DLR), indicating that the large increase in DLR drives primarily near surface warming and is tightly associated with increasing water vapor over deserts. Atmospheric soundings of temperature and water vapor anomalies support the results of the long-term temperature trend analysis and suggest that desert amplification is due to comparable warming and moistening effects of the troposphere. Likely, desert amplification results from the strongest water vapor feedbacks near the surface over the driest deserts, where the air is very sensitive to changes in water vapor and thus efficient in enhancing the longwave greenhouse effect in a warming climate.

Long-term trends in atmospheric concentrations of α- and γ-HCH in the Arctic provide insight into the effects of legislation and climatic fluctuations on contaminant levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, S.; Halsall, C. J.; Tych, W.; Kallenborn, R.; Su, Y.; Hung, H.

Twelve year datasets of weekly atmospheric concentrations of α- and γ-HCH were compared between the two Arctic monitoring stations of Alert, Nunavut, Canada, and Zeppelin Mountain, Svalbard, Norway. Time-series analysis was conducted with the use of dynamic harmonic regression (DHR), which provided a very good model fit, to examine both the seasonal behaviour in these isomers and the longer-term, underlying trends. Strong spatial differences were not apparent between the two sites, although subtle differences in seasonal behaviour and composition were identified. For example, the composition of γ-HCH to total HCH (α + γ) was greater at Zeppelin compared to Alert, probably reflecting this site's proximity to major use regions of lindane. Pronounced seasonality in air concentrations for γ-HCH was marked by a 'spring maximum event' (SME), confirming earlier studies. For α-HCH, the SME was much weaker and only evident at Alert, whereas at Zeppelin, seasonal fluctuations for α-HCH were marked by elevated concentrations in summer and lower concentrations during winter, with this pattern most apparent for the years after 2000. We attribute this difference in spatial and temporal patterns to the Arctic oscillation. A similar climatic pattern was not evident at either site in the γ-HCH data. Seasonally adjusted, long-term trends revealed declining concentrations at both sites for α- and γ-HCH over the entire time-series. Recent legislation affecting lindane use appear to account for this decline in γ-HCH, with little evidence of a delay or 'lag' between the banning of lindane in Europe (a main source region) or Canada, and a decline in air concentrations observed at both Arctic sites.

Spawning patterns of Pacific Lamprey in tributaries to the Willamette River, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mayfield, M.P.; Schultz, Luke; Wyss, Lance A.; Clemens, B. J.; Schreck, Carl B.

2014-01-01

Addressing the ongoing decline of Pacific Lamprey Entosphenus tridentatus across its range along the west coast of North America requires an understanding of all life history phases. Currently, spawning surveys (redd counts) are a common tool used to monitor returning adult salmonids, but the methods are in their infancy for Pacific Lamprey. To better understand the spawning phase, our objective was to assess temporal spawning trends, redd abundance, habitat use, and spatial patterns of spawning at multiple spatial scales for Pacific Lamprey in the Willamette River basin, Oregon. Although redd density varied considerably across surveyed reaches, the observed temporal patterns of spawning were related to physical habitat and hydrologic conditions. As has been documented in studies in other basins in the Pacific Northwest, we found that redds were often constructed in pool tailouts dominated by gravel, similar to habitat used by spawning salmonids. Across the entire Willamette Basin, Pacific Lampreys appeared to select reaches with alluvial geology, likely because this is where gravel suitable for spawning accumulated. At the tributary scale, spawning patterns were not as strong, and in reaches with nonalluvial geology redds were more spatially clumped than in reaches with alluvial geology. These results can be used to help identify and conserve Pacific Lamprey spawning habitat across the Pacific Northwest.

[Dynamic evolution of wetland landscape spatial pattern in Nansi Lake, China].

PubMed

Chen, Zhi Cong; Xie, Xiao Ping; Bai, Mao Wei

2016-10-01

Based on Landsat images in 1987, 2002 and 2014 from Nansi Lake located in Shandong Province, landscape pattern index, dynamic index, landscape gradient and gridding model were used for analysis of the wetland distribution in the lake. The results showed that the landscape contagion index and aggregation index gradually decreased from 1987 to 2014, while the landscape diversity index and evenness index gradually increased. The distribution of landscape area was more uniform while its patterns trended to be fragmented. Human activities impacted Nansi wetland distribution and the disturbance presented an increasing trend. The total area of Nansi wetland gradually increased during the study period. The area of lake first decreased then increased, and the area reached the maximum in 2014. The area of the ponds along the riparian zone had increased gradually, but the increasing speed slowed down. The area of the rivers remained stable, while the area of the swamps decreased continually during the period. The change of landscape pattern of Nansi Lake wetland mainly resulted from agricultural activities, establishment of Nansi Lake Natural Reserve, and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.

Reconstruction of global gridded monthly sectoral water withdrawals for 1971–2010 and analysis of their spatiotemporal patterns

DOE PAGES

Huang, Zhongwei; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Xinya; ...

2018-04-06

Human water withdrawal has increasingly altered the global water cycle in past decades, yet our understanding of its driving forces and patterns is limited. Reported historical estimates of sectoral water withdrawals are often sparse and incomplete, mainly restricted to water withdrawal estimates available at annual and country scales, due to a lack of observations at seasonal and local scales. In this study, through collecting and consolidating various sources of reported data and developing spatial and temporal statistical downscaling algorithms, we reconstruct a global monthly gridded (0.5°) sectoral water withdrawal dataset for the period 1971–2010, which distinguishes six water use sectors, i.e., irrigation,more » domestic, electricity generation (cooling of thermal power plants), livestock, mining, and manufacturing. Based on the reconstructed dataset, the spatial and temporal patterns of historical water withdrawal are analyzed. Results show that total global water withdrawal has increased significantly during 1971–2010, mainly driven by the increase in irrigation water withdrawal. Regions with high water withdrawal are those densely populated or with large irrigated cropland production, e.g., the United States (US), eastern China, India, and Europe. Seasonally, irrigation water withdrawal in summer for the major crops contributes a large percentage of total annual irrigation water withdrawal in mid- and high-latitude regions, and the dominant season of irrigation water withdrawal is also different across regions. Domestic water withdrawal is mostly characterized by a summer peak, while water withdrawal for electricity generation has a winter peak in high-latitude regions and a summer peak in low-latitude regions. Despite the overall increasing trend, irrigation in the western US and domestic water withdrawal in western Europe exhibit a decreasing trend. Our results highlight the distinct spatial pattern of human water use by sectors at the seasonal and annual timescales. Here, the reconstructed gridded water withdrawal dataset is open access, and can be used for examining issues related to water withdrawals at fine spatial, temporal, and sectoral scales.« less

Reconstruction of global gridded monthly sectoral water withdrawals for 1971–2010 and analysis of their spatiotemporal patterns

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Zhongwei; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Xinya

Human water withdrawal has increasingly altered the global water cycle in past decades, yet our understanding of its driving forces and patterns is limited. Reported historical estimates of sectoral water withdrawals are often sparse and incomplete, mainly restricted to water withdrawal estimates available at annual and country scales, due to a lack of observations at seasonal and local scales. In this study, through collecting and consolidating various sources of reported data and developing spatial and temporal statistical downscaling algorithms, we reconstruct a global monthly gridded (0.5°) sectoral water withdrawal dataset for the period 1971–2010, which distinguishes six water use sectors, i.e., irrigation,more » domestic, electricity generation (cooling of thermal power plants), livestock, mining, and manufacturing. Based on the reconstructed dataset, the spatial and temporal patterns of historical water withdrawal are analyzed. Results show that total global water withdrawal has increased significantly during 1971–2010, mainly driven by the increase in irrigation water withdrawal. Regions with high water withdrawal are those densely populated or with large irrigated cropland production, e.g., the United States (US), eastern China, India, and Europe. Seasonally, irrigation water withdrawal in summer for the major crops contributes a large percentage of total annual irrigation water withdrawal in mid- and high-latitude regions, and the dominant season of irrigation water withdrawal is also different across regions. Domestic water withdrawal is mostly characterized by a summer peak, while water withdrawal for electricity generation has a winter peak in high-latitude regions and a summer peak in low-latitude regions. Despite the overall increasing trend, irrigation in the western US and domestic water withdrawal in western Europe exhibit a decreasing trend. Our results highlight the distinct spatial pattern of human water use by sectors at the seasonal and annual timescales. Here, the reconstructed gridded water withdrawal dataset is open access, and can be used for examining issues related to water withdrawals at fine spatial, temporal, and sectoral scales.« less

Reconstruction of global gridded monthly sectoral water withdrawals for 1971–2010 and analysis of their spatiotemporal patterns

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Zhongwei; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Xinya

Human water withdrawal has increasingly altered the global water cycle in past decades, yet our understanding of its driving forces and patterns is limited. Reported historical estimates of sectoral water withdrawals are often sparse and incomplete, mainly restricted to water withdrawal estimates available at annual and country scales, due to a lack of observations at seasonal and local scales. In this study, through collecting and consolidating various sources of reported data and developing spatial and temporal statistical downscaling algorithms, we reconstruct a global monthly gridded (0.5°) sectoral water withdrawal dataset for the period 1971–2010, which distinguishes six water use sectors, i.e., irrigation,more » domestic, electricity generation (cooling of thermal power plants), livestock, mining, and manufacturing. Based on the reconstructed dataset, the spatial and temporal patterns of historical water withdrawal are analyzed. Results show that total global water withdrawal has increased significantly during 1971–2010, mainly driven by the increase in irrigation water withdrawal. Regions with high water withdrawal are those densely populated or with large irrigated cropland production, e.g., the United States (US), eastern China, India, and Europe. Seasonally, irrigation water withdrawal in summer for the major crops contributes a large percentage of total annual irrigation water withdrawal in mid- and high-latitude regions, and the dominant season of irrigation water withdrawal is also different across regions. Domestic water withdrawal is mostly characterized by a summer peak, while water withdrawal for electricity generation has a winter peak in high-latitude regions and a summer peak in low-latitude regions. Despite the overall increasing trend, irrigation in the western US and domestic water withdrawal in western Europe exhibit a decreasing trend. Our results highlight the distinct spatial pattern of human water use by sectors at the seasonal and annual timescales. The reconstructed gridded water withdrawal dataset is open access, and can be used for examining issues related to water withdrawals at fine spatial, temporal, and sectoral scales.« less

Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

PubMed Central

Brock, William A.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Livina, Valerie N.; Seekell, David A.; Scheffer, Marten; van Nes, Egbert H.; Dakos, Vasilis

2014-01-01

A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data. PMID:24658137

Size-frequency distribution, growth, and mortality of snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) and arctic lyre crab (Hyas coarctatus) in the chukchi sea from 2009 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groß, Jasmin; Konar, Brenda; Brey, Thomas; Grebmeier, Jacqueline M.

2017-10-01

The snow crab Chionoecetes opilio and Arctic lyre crab Hyas coarctatus are prominent members of the Chukchi Sea epifaunal community. A better understanding of their life history will aid in determining their role in this ecosystem in light of the changing climate and resource development. In this study, the size frequency distribution, growth, and mortality of these two crab species was examined in 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013 to determine temporal and spatial patterns within the eastern Chukchi Sea, and to identify potential environmental drivers of the observed patterns. Temporally, the mean size of both sexes of C. opilio and H. coarctatus decreased significantly from 2009 to 2013, with the number of rare maximum sized organisms decreasing significantly to near absence in the latter two study years. Spatially, the mean size of male and female crabs of both species showed a latitudinal trend, decreasing from south to north in the investigation area. Growth of both sexes of C. opilio and H. coarctatus was linear over the sampled size range, and mortality was highest in the latter two study years. Life history features of both species related to different environmental parameters in different years, ranging from temperature, the sediment carbon to nitrogen ratio of the organic content, and sediment grain size distribution. Likely explanations for the observed temporal and spatial variability are ontogenetic migrations of mature crabs to warmer areas possibly due to cooler water temperatures in the latter two study years, or interannual fluctuations, which have been reported for C. opilio populations in other areas where successful waves of recruitment were estimated to occur in eight year intervals. Further research is suggested to determine if the spatial and temporal patterns found in this study are part of the natural variability in this system or if they are an indication of long-term trends.

Spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation inferred from streamflow observations across the Sierra Nevada mountain range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henn, Brian; Clark, Martyn P.; Kavetski, Dmitri; Newman, Andrew J.; Hughes, Mimi; McGurk, Bruce; Lundquist, Jessica D.

2018-01-01

Given uncertainty in precipitation gauge-based gridded datasets over complex terrain, we use multiple streamflow observations as an additional source of information about precipitation, in order to identify spatial and temporal differences between a gridded precipitation dataset and precipitation inferred from streamflow. We test whether gridded datasets capture across-crest and regional spatial patterns of variability, as well as year-to-year variability and trends in precipitation, in comparison to precipitation inferred from streamflow. We use a Bayesian model calibration routine with multiple lumped hydrologic model structures to infer the most likely basin-mean, water-year total precipitation for 56 basins with long-term (>30 year) streamflow records in the Sierra Nevada mountain range of California. We compare basin-mean precipitation derived from this approach with basin-mean precipitation from a precipitation gauge-based, 1/16° gridded dataset that has been used to simulate and evaluate trends in Western United States streamflow and snowpack over the 20th century. We find that the long-term average spatial patterns differ: in particular, there is less precipitation in the gridded dataset in higher-elevation basins whose aspect faces prevailing cool-season winds, as compared to precipitation inferred from streamflow. In a few years and basins, there is less gridded precipitation than there is observed streamflow. Lower-elevation, southern, and east-of-crest basins show better agreement between gridded and inferred precipitation. Implied actual evapotranspiration (calculated as precipitation minus streamflow) then also varies between the streamflow-based estimates and the gridded dataset. Absolute uncertainty in precipitation inferred from streamflow is substantial, but the signal of basin-to-basin and year-to-year differences are likely more robust. The findings suggest that considering streamflow when spatially distributing precipitation in complex terrain may improve its representation, particularly for basins whose orientations (e.g., windward-facing) are favored for orographic precipitation enhancement.

Spatial trends and pollution assessment for mercury in the surface soils of the Nansi Lake catchment, China.

PubMed

Ren, Ming-Yi; Yang, Li-Yuan; Wang, Long-Feng; Han, Xue-Mei; Dai, Jie-Rui; Pang, Xu-Gui

2018-01-01

Surface soil samples collected from Nansi Lake catchment were analyzed for mercury (Hg) to determine its spatial trends and environmental impacts. Results showed that the average soil Hg contents were 0.043 mg kg -1 . A positive correlation was shown between TOC and soil Hg contents. The main type of soil with higher TOC contents and lower pH values showed higher soil Hg contents. Soil TOC contents and CV values were both higher in the eastern catchment. The eastern part of the catchment, where the industry is developed, had relatively high soil Hg contents and a banding distribution of high Hg contents was corresponded with the southwest-northeast economic belt. Urban soils had higher Hg contents than rural soils. The urbanization pattern that soil Hg contents presented a decreasing trend from city center to suburb was shown clearly especially in the three cities. Soil Hg contents in Jining City showed a good consistency with the urban land expansion. The spatial trends of soil Hg contents in the catchment indicated that the type and the intensity of human activities have a strong influence on the distribution of Hg in soils. Calculated risk indices showed that the western part of the catchment presented moderately polluted condition and the eastern part of the catchment showed moderate to strong pollution level. The area with high ecological risk appeared mainly along the economic belt.

Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationships between Anomalies and Trends of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover, and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel

2008-01-01

AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU by the AIRS Science Team include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiles; atmospheric humidity profiles, fractional cloud cover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Products covering the period September 2002 through the present have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we will show results covering the time period September 2006 - November 2008. This time period is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extratropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear sky and All Sky OLR. The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, will be shown, with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. Results will also be shown to validate the anomalies and trends of temperature profiles and OLR as determined from analysis of AIRS/AMSU data. Global and regional trends during the 6 1/3 year period are not necessarily indicative of what has happened in the past, or what may happen in the future. Nevertheless, the inter-relationships of spatial and temporal anomalies of atmospheric geophysical parameters with those of surface skin temperature are indicative of climate processes, and can be used to test the performance of climate models when driven by changes in surface temperatures.

Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationship between Anomalies and Trends of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula

2009-01-01

AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU by the AIRS Science Team include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiled; atmospheric humidity profiles, fractional cloud clover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Products covering the period September 2002 through the present have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we will show results covering the time period September 2006 - November 2008. This time period is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extra-tropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear Sky and All Sky OLR. The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, will be shown with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. Results will also be shown to evaluate the anomalies and trends of temperature profiles and OLR as determined from analysis of AIRS/AMSU data. Global and regional trends during the 6 1/3 year time period are not necessarily indicative of what has happened in the past, or what may happen in the future. Nevertheless, the inter-relationships of spatial and temporal anomalies of atmospheric geophysical parameters with those of surface skin temperature are indicative of climate processes, and can be used to test the performance of climate models when driven by changes in surface temperatures.

Spatial analysis for prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus - A state investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zainal, Siti Salsabilah Nabilah; Masnan, Maz Jamilah; Amin, Nor Azrita Mohd; Mohamed, Nordin

2017-11-01

Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) is a chronic and non-communicable disease, which is characterized as the cause of premature deaths in the world. Unfortunately, Malaysia is one of the many countries facing this epidemic. Based on the increasing current trend of T2DM patients' cases from the National Diabetes Registry (NDR) Report from 2009 to 2012, there were approximately 2.6 million adults aged 18 years and above living with diabetes disease in Malaysia. Thus, this study aims to (i) perform preliminary spatial analysis for the prevalence of T2DM patients based on some factors, (ii) map the findings of the analyses according to some spatial properties, and (iii) analyze the pattern of diagnosed T2DM patients based on the studied factors. The studied population is one of the highest prevalence states of T2DM in Malaysia. This study is expected to reveal some demographic patterns that probably significant to this alarming epidemic.

Unidirectional trends in annual and seasonal climate and extremes in Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nashwan, Mohamed Salem; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Abd Rahim, Norhan

2018-05-01

The presence of short- and long-term autocorrelations can lead to considerable change in significance of trend in hydro-climatic time series. Therefore, past findings of climatic trend studies that did not consider autocorrelations became a questionable issue. The spatial patterns in the trends of annual and seasonal temperature, rainfall, and related extremes in Egypt have been assessed in this paper using modified Mann-Kendal (MMK) trend test which can detect unidirectional trends in time series in the presence of short- and long-term autocorrelations. The trends obtained using the MMK test was compared with that obtained using standard Mann-Kendall (MK) test to show how natural variability in climate affects the trends. The daily rainfall and temperature data of Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing for the period 1948-2010 having a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° was used for this purpose. The results showed a large difference between the trends obtained using MMK and MK tests. The MMK test showed increasing trends in temperature and a number of temperature extremes in Egypt, but almost no change in rainfall and rainfall extremes. The minimum temperature was found to increase (0.08-0.29 °C/decade) much faster compared to maximum temperature (0.07-0.24 °C/decade) and therefore, a decrease in diurnal temperature range (- 0.01 to - 0.16 °C/decade) in most part of Egypt. The number of winter hot days and nights are increasing, while the number of cold days is decreasing in most part of the country. The study provides a more realistic scenario of the changes in climate and weather extremes of Egypt.

Spatio-temporal pattern analysis for evaluation of the spread of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China, 2013-2014.

PubMed

Dong, Wen; Yang, Kun; Xu, Quanli; Liu, Lin; Chen, Juan

2017-10-24

A large number (n = 460) of A(H7N9) human infections have been reported in China from March 2013 through December 2014, and H7N9 outbreaks in humans became an emerging issue for China health, which have caused numerous disease outbreaks in domestic poultry and wild bird populations, and threatened human health severely. The aims of this study were to investigate the directional trend of the epidemic and to identify the significant presence of spatial-temporal clustering of influenza A(H7N9) human cases between March 2013 and December 2014. Three distinct epidemic phases of A(H7N9) human infections were identified in this study. In each phase, standard deviational ellipse analysis was conducted to examine the directional trend of disease spreading, and retrospective space-time permutation scan statistic was then used to identify the spatio-temporal cluster patterns of H7N9 outbreaks in humans. The ever-changing location and the increasing size of the three identified standard deviational ellipses showed that the epidemic moved from east to southeast coast, and hence to some central regions, with a future epidemiological trend of continue dispersing to more central regions of China, and a few new human cases might also appear in parts of the western China. Furthermore, A(H7N9) human infections were clustering in space and time in the first two phases with five significant spatio-temporal clusters (p < 0.05), but there was no significant cluster identified in phase III. There was a new epidemiologic pattern that the decrease in significant spatio-temporal cluster of A(H7N9) human infections was accompanied with an obvious spatial expansion of the outbreaks during the study period, and identification of the spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic can provide valuable insights for better understanding the spreading dynamics of the disease in China.

Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping

USGS Publications Warehouse

Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2016-01-01

Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective.

Performance of some biotic indices in the real variable world: a case study at different spatial scales in North-Western Mediterranean Sea.

PubMed

Tataranni, Mariella; Lardicci, Claudio

2010-01-01

The aim of this study was to analyse the variability of four different benthic biotic indices (AMBI, BENTIX, H', M-AMBI) in two marine coastal areas of the North-Western Mediterranean Sea. In each coastal area, 36 replicates were randomly selected according to a hierarchical sampling design, which allowed estimating the variance components of the indices associated with four different spatial scales (ranging from metres to kilometres). All the analyses were performed at two different sampling periods in order to evaluate if the observed trends were consistent over the time. The variance components of the four indices revealed complex trends and different patterns in the two sampling periods. These results highlighted that independently from the employed index, a rigorous and appropriate sampling design taking into account different scales should always be used in order to avoid erroneous classifications and to develop effective monitoring programs.

Mapping Greenland’s mass loss in space and time

PubMed Central

Harig, Christopher; Simons, Frederik J.

2012-01-01

The melting of polar ice sheets is a major contributor to global sea-level rise. Early estimates of the mass lost from the Greenland ice cap, based on satellite gravity data collected by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, have widely varied. Although the continentally and decadally averaged estimated trends have now more or less converged, to this date, there has been little clarity on the detailed spatial distribution of Greenland’s mass loss and how the geographical pattern has varied on relatively shorter time scales. Here, we present a spatially and temporally resolved estimation of the ice mass change over Greenland between April of 2002 and August of 2011. Although the total mass loss trend has remained linear, actively changing areas of mass loss were concentrated on the southeastern and northwestern coasts, with ice mass in the center of Greenland steadily increasing over the decade. PMID:23169646

Googling trends in conservation biology.

PubMed

Proulx, Raphaël; Massicotte, Philippe; Pépino, Marc

2014-02-01

Web-crawling approaches, that is, automated programs data mining the internet to obtain information about a particular process, have recently been proposed for monitoring early signs of ecosystem degradation or for establishing crop calendars. However, lack of a clear conceptual and methodological framework has prevented the development of such approaches within the field of conservation biology. Our objective was to illustrate how Google Trends, a freely accessible web-crawling engine, can be used to track changes in timing of biological processes, spatial distribution of invasive species, and level of public awareness about key conservation issues. Google Trends returns the number of internet searches that were made for a keyword in a given region of the world over a defined period. Using data retrieved online for 13 countries, we exemplify how Google Trends can be used to study the timing of biological processes, such as the seasonal recurrence of pollen release or mosquito outbreaks across a latitudinal gradient. We mapped the spatial extent of results from Google Trends for 5 invasive species in the United States and found geographic patterns in invasions that are consistent with their coarse-grained distribution at state levels. From 2004 through 2012, Google Trends showed that the level of public interest and awareness about conservation issues related to ecosystem services, biodiversity, and climate change increased, decreased, and followed both trends, respectively. Finally, to further the development of research approaches at the interface of conservation biology, collective knowledge, and environmental management, we developed an algorithm that allows the rapid retrieval of Google Trends data. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Using an autologistic regression model to identify spatial risk factors and spatial risk patterns of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Mainland China

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background There have been large-scale outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Mainland China over the last decade. These events varied greatly across the country. It is necessary to identify the spatial risk factors and spatial distribution patterns of HFMD for public health control and prevention. Climate risk factors associated with HFMD occurrence have been recognized. However, few studies discussed the socio-economic determinants of HFMD risk at a space scale. Methods HFMD records in Mainland China in May 2008 were collected. Both climate and socio-economic factors were selected as potential risk exposures of HFMD. Odds ratio (OR) was used to identify the spatial risk factors. A spatial autologistic regression model was employed to get OR values of each exposures and model the spatial distribution patterns of HFMD risk. Results Results showed that both climate and socio-economic variables were spatial risk factors for HFMD transmission in Mainland China. The statistically significant risk factors are monthly average precipitation (OR = 1.4354), monthly average temperature (OR = 1.379), monthly average wind speed (OR = 1.186), the number of industrial enterprises above designated size (OR = 17.699), the population density (OR = 1.953), and the proportion of student population (OR = 1.286). The spatial autologistic regression model has a good goodness of fit (ROC = 0.817) and prediction accuracy (Correct ratio = 78.45%) of HFMD occurrence. The autologistic regression model also reduces the contribution of the residual term in the ordinary logistic regression model significantly, from 17.25 to 1.25 for the odds ratio. Based on the prediction results of the spatial model, we obtained a map of the probability of HFMD occurrence that shows the spatial distribution pattern and local epidemic risk over Mainland China. Conclusions The autologistic regression model was used to identify spatial risk factors and model spatial risk patterns of HFMD. HFMD occurrences were found to be spatially heterogeneous over the Mainland China, which is related to both the climate and socio-economic variables. The combination of socio-economic and climate exposures can explain the HFMD occurrences more comprehensively and objectively than those with only climate exposures. The modeled probability of HFMD occurrence at the county level reveals not only the spatial trends, but also the local details of epidemic risk, even in the regions where there were no HFMD case records. PMID:24731248

Application of urban neighborhoods in understanding of local level electricity consumption patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy Chowdhury, P. K.; Bhaduri, B. L.

2017-12-01

Aggregated national or regional level electricity consumption data fail to capture the spatial variation in consumption, a function of location, climate, topography, and local economics. Spatial monitoring of electricity usage patterns helps to understand derivers of location specific consumption behavior and develop models to cater to the consumer needs, plan efficiency measures, identify settled areas lacking access, and allows for future planning through assessing requirements. Developed countries have started to deploy sensor systems such as smart meters to gather information on local level consumption patterns, but such infrastructure is virtually nonexistent in developing nations, resulting in serious dearth of reliable data for planners and policy makers. Remote sensing of artificial nighttime lights from human settlements have proven useful to study electricity consumptions from global to regional scales, however, local level studies remain scarce. Using the differences in spatial characteristics among different urban neighborhoods such as industrial, commercial and residential, observable through very high resolution day time satellite images (<0.5 meter), formal urban neighborhoods have been generated through texture analysis. In this study, we explore the applicability of these urban neighborhoods in understanding local level electricity consumption patterns through exploring possible correlations between the spatial characteristics of these neighborhoods, associated general economic activities, and corresponding VIIRS day-night band (DNB) nighttime lights observations, which we use as a proxy for electricity consumption in the absence of ground level consumption data. The overall trends observed through this analysis provides useful explanations helping in understanding of broad electricity consumption patterns in urban areas lacking ground level observations. This study thus highlights possible application of remote sensing data driven methods in providing novel insights into local level socio-economic patterns that were hitherto undetected due to lack of ground data.

Spatial and Temporal Dust Source Variability in Northern China Identified Using Advanced Remote Sensing Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taramelli, A.; Pasqui, M.; Barbour, J.; Kirschbaum, D.; Bottai, L.; Busillo, C.; Calastrini, F.; Guarnieri, F.; Small, C.

2013-01-01

The aim of this research is to provide a detailed characterization of spatial patterns and temporal trends in the regional and local dust source areas within the desert of the Alashan Prefecture (Inner Mongolia, China). This problem was approached through multi-scale remote sensing analysis of vegetation changes. The primary requirements for this regional analysis are high spatial and spectral resolution data, accurate spectral calibration and good temporal resolution with a suitable temporal baseline. Landsat analysis and field validation along with the low spatial resolution classifications from MODIS and AVHRR are combined to provide a reliable characterization of the different potential dust-producing sources. The representation of intra-annual and inter-annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trend to assess land cover discrimination for mapping potential dust source using MODIS and AVHRR at larger scale is enhanced by Landsat Spectral Mixing Analysis (SMA). The combined methodology is to determine the extent to which Landsat can distinguish important soils types in order to better understand how soil reflectance behaves at seasonal and inter-annual timescales. As a final result mapping soil surface properties using SMA is representative of responses of different land and soil cover previously identified by NDVI trend. The results could be used in dust emission models even if they are not reflecting aggregate formation, soil stability or particle coatings showing to be critical for accurately represent dust source over different regional and local emitting areas.

[Landscape pattern and its vulnerability of Nansihu Lake basin during 1980-2015.

PubMed

Xui, Yan; Sun, Xiao Yin; Zhang, Da Zhi; Shan, Rui Feng; Liu, Fei

2018-02-01

Landscape pattern and its vulnerability have direct impacts on ecological environment in the basin. In order to protect the ecological security in Nansihu Lake basin, we analyzed the changes of landscape pattern based on seven sets of land use data (1980-2015), with landscape adaptability index (LAI) and landscape sensitivity index (LSI) being used to build the landscape vulnerability index (LVI). The spatial distribution and changes of LVI were analyzed. Results showed that the percentage of arable land areas decreased by 4.6% and construction land areas increased by 39.7% from 1980 to 2015. Other land use types showed fluctuating changes. The areas of forest land, grassland, and unused land decreased while water area increased. The arable land was the dominant land use type from 1980 to 2015 in this area. The degree of fragmentation of arable land and water area in the basin increased, whereas other land use types decreased. The fragmentation of whole basin decreased, but connectivity among landscape types enhanced. The irregularity and complexity of landscape pattern decreased, but diversity and evenness of landscape pattern displayed an increasing trend. With respect to LVI in different periods, the eastern part of the basin was higher than the western part, while the northern part was higher than the southern part. The spatial distribution of LVI was related to topography, layout of landscape types and change of land use. The LVI of Nansihu Lake basin showed a decline trend during 1980-2015. In the eastern part of the basin, higher level of LVI gradually dispersed and was replaced by lower level. In the northwest, the recovery of LVI was obvious. In the south and southwest parts, LVI was consistently low.

American Exceptionalism: Population Trends and Flight Initiation Distances in Birds from Three Continents

PubMed Central

Møller, Anders Pape; Samia, Diogo S. M.; Weston, Mike A.; Guay, Patrick-Jean; Blumstein, Daniel T.

2014-01-01

Background All organisms may be affected by humans' increasing impact on Earth, but there are many potential drivers of population trends and the relative importance of each remains largely unknown. The causes of spatial patterns in population trends and their relationship with animal responses to human proximity are even less known. Methodology/Principal Finding We investigated the relationship between population trends of 193 species of bird in North America, Australia and Europe and flight initiation distance (FID); the distance at which birds take flight when approached by a human. While there is an expected negative relationship between population trend and FID in Australia and Europe, we found the inverse relationship for North American birds; thus FID cannot be used as a universal predictor of vulnerability of birds. However, the analysis of the joint explanatory ability of multiple drivers (farmland breeding habitat, pole-most breeding latitude, migratory habit, FID) effects on population status replicated previously reported strong effects of farmland breeding habitat (an effect apparently driven mostly by European birds), as well as strong effects of FID, body size, migratory habit and continent. Farmland birds are generally declining. Conclusions/Significance Flight initiation distance is related to population trends in a way that differs among continents opening new research possibilities concerning the causes of geographic differences in patterns of anti-predator behavior. PMID:25226165

Applications of Remote Sensing and GIS(Geographic Information System) in Crime Analysis of Gujranwala City.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munawar, Iqra

2016-07-01

Crime mapping is a dynamic process. It can be used to assist all stages of the problem solving process. Mapping crime can help police protect citizens more effectively. The decision to utilize a certain type of map or design element may change based on the purpose of a map, the audience or the available data. If the purpose of the crime analysis map is to assist in the identification of a particular problem, selected data may be mapped to identify patterns of activity that have been previously undetected. The main objective of this research was to study the spatial distribution patterns of the four common crimes i.e Narcotics, Arms, Burglary and Robbery in Gujranwala City using spatial statistical techniques to identify the hotspots. Hotspots or location of clusters were identified using Getis-Ord Gi* Statistic. Crime analysis mapping can be used to conduct a comprehensive spatial analysis of the problem. Graphic presentations of such findings provide a powerful medium to communicate conditions, patterns and trends thus creating an avenue for analysts to bring about significant policy changes. Moreover Crime mapping also helps in the reduction of crime rate.

Spatial correlation in precipitation trends in the Brazilian Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buarque, Diogo Costa; Clarke, Robin T.; Mendes, Carlos Andre Bulhoes

2010-06-01

A geostatistical analysis of variables derived from Amazon daily precipitation records (trends in annual precipitation totals, trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, trend in length of dry spell, trend in number of wet days per year) gave results that are consistent with those previously reported. Averaged over the Brazilian Amazon region as a whole, trends in annual maximum precipitations were slightly negative, the trend in the length of dry spell was slightly positive, and the trend in the number of wet days in the year was slightly negative. For trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, spatial correlation between trends was found to extend up to a distance equivalent to at least half a degree of latitude or longitude, with some evidence of anisotropic correlation. Time trends in annual precipitation were found to be spatially correlated up to at least ten degrees of separation, in both W-E and S-N directions. Anisotropic spatial correlation was strongly evident in time trends in length of dry spell with much stronger evidence of spatial correlation in the W-E direction, extending up to at least five degrees of separation, than in the S-N. Because the time trends analyzed are shown to be spatially correlated, it is argued that methods at present widely used to test the statistical significance of climate trends over time lead to erroneous conclusions if spatial correlation is ignored, because records from different sites are assumed to be statistically independent.

Modelling hen harrier dynamics to inform human-wildlife conflict resolution: a spatially-realistic, individual-based approach.

PubMed

Heinonen, Johannes P M; Palmer, Stephen C F; Redpath, Steve M; Travis, Justin M J

2014-01-01

Individual-based models have gained popularity in ecology, and enable simultaneous incorporation of spatial explicitness and population dynamic processes to understand spatio-temporal patterns of populations. We introduce an individual-based model for understanding and predicting spatial hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) population dynamics in Great Britain. The model uses a landscape with habitat, prey and game management indices. The hen harrier population was initialised according to empirical census estimates for 1988/89 and simulated until 2030, and predictions for 1998, 2004 and 2010 were compared to empirical census estimates for respective years. The model produced a good qualitative match to overall trends between 1989 and 2010. Parameter explorations revealed relatively high elasticity in particular to demographic parameters such as juvenile male mortality. This highlights the need for robust parameter estimates from empirical research. There are clearly challenges for replication of real-world population trends, but this model provides a useful tool for increasing understanding of drivers of hen harrier dynamics and focusing research efforts in order to inform conflict management decisions.

Modelling Hen Harrier Dynamics to Inform Human-Wildlife Conflict Resolution: A Spatially-Realistic, Individual-Based Approach

PubMed Central

Heinonen, Johannes P. M.; Palmer, Stephen C. F.; Redpath, Steve M.; Travis, Justin M. J.

2014-01-01

Individual-based models have gained popularity in ecology, and enable simultaneous incorporation of spatial explicitness and population dynamic processes to understand spatio-temporal patterns of populations. We introduce an individual-based model for understanding and predicting spatial hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) population dynamics in Great Britain. The model uses a landscape with habitat, prey and game management indices. The hen harrier population was initialised according to empirical census estimates for 1988/89 and simulated until 2030, and predictions for 1998, 2004 and 2010 were compared to empirical census estimates for respective years. The model produced a good qualitative match to overall trends between 1989 and 2010. Parameter explorations revealed relatively high elasticity in particular to demographic parameters such as juvenile male mortality. This highlights the need for robust parameter estimates from empirical research. There are clearly challenges for replication of real-world population trends, but this model provides a useful tool for increasing understanding of drivers of hen harrier dynamics and focusing research efforts in order to inform conflict management decisions. PMID:25405860

Analyses and simulation to spatial pattern of land utilization in Guangzhu City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xin-chang; Zhang, Wen-jiang; Ma, Kun

2006-10-01

Based on Landsat TM remote sensing images in 1990 and 2000, we analyses the temporal and spatial pattern Characters of land use in the 1990s in Guangzhou city. We also simulate the scenarios of land-use pattern in 2010 by integrating the Markov process into cellular automata model. The results show that the area of constructions was rapid increasing during the last ten years of the 20th century, at the same time the arable land, woodland and unused land areas were decreasing, the orchard and water areas were rarely changed; In the first ten years of 21st century, land use pattern keep the change trend in the 1990s, land of constructions continue rapid increasing; arable land and unused land areas continue rapid decreasing; woodland, orchard and water areas keep steadily. Research shows that the extent of urban area has increased exponentially in Guangzhou city, no evidences show that the arable land decreasing rate will slow down in the near future. So, it is necessary to enhance the control functions of land use planning and take actives measures to protect arable land.

A method for studying the development pattern of urban commercial service facilities based on customer reviews from social media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y. D.; Jiang, B. T.; Ye, X. Y.

2016-06-01

Urbanization is one of the most important human social activities in the 21st century (Chaolin et al., 2012). With an increasing number of people visiting cities, the provision of adequate urban service facilities, including public and commercial service facilities, in locations where people live has become an important guarantee of the success of urbanization. Exploring the commercial service facilities in a specific area of a city can help us understand the progress and trends of urban renewal in the area, provide a quantitative basis for evaluating the rationality of planning implementation, and facilitate an analysis of the effects of different factors on the regional development of a city (Schor et al. 2003). In this paper, we proposed a data processing and analysis method for studying the distribution and development pattern of urban commercial facilities based on customer reviews. In addition, based on road network constraints, we explored the patterns contained in customer reviews data, including patterns for the spatial distribution and spatial-temporal evolution of facilities as well as the number of facilities and degree of satisfaction.

Temporal and spatial trends of perfluorinated compounds in juvenile loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) along the East Coast of the United States.

PubMed

O'Connell, Steven G; Arendt, Michael; Segars, Al; Kimmel, Tricia; Braun-McNeill, Joanne; Avens, Larisa; Schroeder, Barbara; Ngai, Lily; Kucklick, John R; Keller, Jennifer M

2010-07-01

Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) are globally distributed persistent environmental contaminants. This study provides temporal trends as well as large-scale spatial trends of PFC concentrations in threatened juvenile loggerhead sea turtles near or from Florida Bay (FL Bay), Cape Canaveral (FL), Charleston (SC), Core Sound (NC), and Chesapeake Bay (MD). PFCs were extracted from 163 plasma and serum samples using solid-phase extraction and quantified with LC-MS/MS. Concentrations of six compounds significantly varied by site, with MD or FL Bay turtles having the highest concentrations. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) was the predominant PFC at all sites (range: 0.31 ng/g to 39.0 ng/g). FL Bay turtles, compared to other sites, accumulated a unique PFC pattern with a higher proportion of perfluorocarboxylates compared to PFOS. Furthermore, this study was the first to statistically correlate wildlife PFC concentrations with human population, used as a proxy for urbanization and sources of PFCs to the environment. Positive relationships were found in which human population accounted for 75 and 81% of the variance in turtle PFOS and perfluoroundecanoate (PFUnA) concentrations (p = 0.06 and 0.04), respectively. PFOS and perfluorononanoate (PFNA) significantly decreased from 2000-2008 in SC turtles annually by 20 and 11%, respectively (p

Improving Photometry and Stellar Signal Preservation with Pixel-Level Systematic Error Correction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kolodzijczak, Jeffrey J.; Smith, Jeffrey C.; Jenkins, Jon M.

2013-01-01

The Kepler Mission has demonstrated that excellent stellar photometric performance can be achieved using apertures constructed from optimally selected CCD pixels. The clever methods used to correct for systematic errors, while very successful, still have some limitations in their ability to extract long-term trends in stellar flux. They also leave poorly correlated bias sources, such as drifting moiré pattern, uncorrected. We will illustrate several approaches where applying systematic error correction algorithms to the pixel time series, rather than the co-added raw flux time series, provide significant advantages. Examples include, spatially localized determination of time varying moiré pattern biases, greater sensitivity to radiation-induced pixel sensitivity drops (SPSDs), improved precision of co-trending basis vectors (CBV), and a means of distinguishing the stellar variability from co-trending terms even when they are correlated. For the last item, the approach enables physical interpretation of appropriately scaled coefficients derived in the fit of pixel time series to the CBV as linear combinations of various spatial derivatives of the pixel response function (PRF). We demonstrate that the residuals of a fit of soderived pixel coefficients to various PRF-related components can be deterministically interpreted in terms of physically meaningful quantities, such as the component of the stellar flux time series which is correlated with the CBV, as well as, relative pixel gain, proper motion and parallax. The approach also enables us to parameterize and assess the limiting factors in the uncertainties in these quantities.

Trading strategy based on dynamic mode decomposition: Tested in Chinese stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Ling-xiao; Long, Wen

2016-11-01

Dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is an effective method to capture the intrinsic dynamical modes of complex system. In this work, we adopt DMD method to discover the evolutionary patterns in stock market and apply it to Chinese A-share stock market. We design two strategies based on DMD algorithm. The strategy which considers only timing problem can make reliable profits in a choppy market with no prominent trend while fails to beat the benchmark moving-average strategy in bull market. After considering the spatial information from spatial-temporal coherent structure of DMD modes, we improved the trading strategy remarkably. Then the DMD strategies profitability is quantitatively evaluated by performing SPA test to correct the data-snooping effect. The results further prove that DMD algorithm can model the market patterns well in sideways market.

GEMAS: Spatial pattern analysis of Ni by using digital image processing techniques on European agricultural soil data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, Gyozo; Petrik, Attila; De Vivo, Benedetto; Albanese, Stefano; Demetriades, Alecos; Sadeghi, Martiya

2017-04-01

Several studies have investigated the spatial distribution of chemical elements in topsoil (0-20 cm) within the framework of the EuroGeoSurveys Geochemistry Expert Group's 'Geochemical Mapping of Agricultural and Grazing Land Soil' project . Most of these studies used geostatistical analyses and interpolated concentration maps, Exploratory and Compositional Data and Analysis to identify anomalous patterns. The objective of our investigation is to demonstrate the use of digital image processing techniques for reproducible spatial pattern recognition and quantitative spatial feature characterisation. A single element (Ni) concentration in agricultural topsoil is used to perform the detailed spatial analysis, and to relate these features to possible underlying processes. In this study, simple univariate statistical methods were implemented first, and Tukey's inner-fence criterion was used to delineate statistical outliers. The linear and triangular irregular network (TIN) interpolation was used on the outlier-free Ni data points, which was resampled to a 10*10 km grid. Successive moving average smoothing was applied to generalise the TIN model and to suppress small- and at the same time enhance significant large-scale features of Nickel concentration spatial distribution patterns in European topsoil. The TIN map smoothed with a moving average filter revealed the spatial trends and patterns without losing much detail, and it was used as the input into digital image processing, such as local maxima and minima determination, digital cross sections, gradient magnitude and gradient direction calculation, second derivative profile curvature calculation, edge detection, local variability assessment, lineament density and directional variogram analyses. The detailed image processing analysis revealed several NE-SW, E-W and NW-SE oriented elongated features, which coincide with different spatial parameter classes and alignment with local maxima and minima. The NE-SW oriented linear pattern is the dominant feature to the south of the last glaciation limit. Some of these linear features are parallel to the suture zone of the Iapetus Ocean, while the others follow the Alpine and Carpathian Chains. The highest variability zones of Ni concentration in topsoil are located in the Alps and in the Balkans where mafic and ultramafic rocks outcrop. The predominant NE-SW oriented pattern is also captured by the strong anisotropy in the semi-variograms in this direction. A single major E-W oriented north-facing feature runs along the southern border of the last glaciation zone. This zone also coincides with a series of local maxima in Ni concentration along the glaciofluvial deposits. The NW-SE elongated spatial features are less dominant and are located in the Pyrenees and Scandinavia. This study demonstrates the efficiency of systematic image processing analysis in identifying and characterising spatial geochemical patterns that often remain uncovered by the usual visual map interpretation techniques.

Regional precipitation trend analysis at the Langat River Basin, Selangor, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palizdan, Narges; Falamarzi, Yashar; Huang, Yuk Feng; Lee, Teang Shui; Ghazali, Abdul Halim

2014-08-01

Various hydrological and meteorological variables such as rainfall and temperature have been affected by global climate change. Any change in the pattern of precipitation can have a significant impact on the availability of water resources, agriculture, and the ecosystem. Therefore, knowledge on rainfall trend is an important aspect of water resources management. In this study, the regional annual and seasonal precipitation trends at the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, for the period of 1982-2011 were examined at the 95 % level of significance using the regional average Mann-Kendall (RAMK) test and the regional average Mann-Kendall coupled with bootstrap (RAMK-bootstrap) method. In order to identify the homogeneous regions respectively for the annual and seasonal scales, firstly, at-site mean total annual and separately at-site mean total seasonal precipitation were spatialized into 5 km × 5 km grids using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) algorithm. Next, the optimum number of homogeneous regions (clusters) is computed using the silhouette coefficient approach. Next, the homogeneous regions were formed using the K-mean clustering method. From the annual scale perspective, all three regions showed positive trends. However, the application of two methods at this scale showed a significant trend only in the region AC1. The region AC2 experienced a significant positive trend using only the RAMK test. On a seasonal scale, all regions showed insignificant trends, except the regions I1C1 and I1C2 in the Inter-Monsoon 1 (INT1) season which experienced significant upward trends. In addition, it was proven that the significance of trends has been affected by the existence of serial and spatial correlations.

Tropical cyclone genesis potential index over the western North Pacific simulated by CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Yajuan; Wang, Lei; Lei, Xiaoyan; Wang, Xidong

2015-11-01

Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) is analyzed using 23 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models and reanalysis datasets. The models are evaluated according to TC genesis potential index (GPI). The spatial and temporal variations of the GPI are first calculated using three atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-1, and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2). Spatial distributions of July-October-mean TC frequency based on the GPI from ERA-interim are more consistent with observed ones derived from IBTrACS global TC data. So, the ERA-interim reanalysis dataset is used to examine the CMIP5 models in terms of reproducing GPI during the period 1982-2005. Although most models possess deficiencies in reproducing the spatial distribution of the GPI, their multimodel ensemble (MME) mean shows a reasonable climatological GPI pattern characterized by a high GPI zone along 20°N in the WNP. There was an upward trend of TC genesis frequency during 1982 to 1998, followed by a downward trend. Both MME results and reanalysis data can represent a robust increasing trend during 1982-1998, but the models cannot simulate the downward trend after 2000. Analysis based on future projection experiments shows that the GPI exhibits no significant change in the first half of the 21st century, and then starts to decrease at the end of the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the GPI shows an increasing trend in the vicinity of 20°N, indicating more TCs could possibly be expected over the WNP under future global warming.

Spatial and temporal trends in runoff at long-term streamgages within and near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen C.; Hirsch, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Long-term streamflow data within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and surrounding area were analyzed in an attempt to identify trends in streamflow. Data from 30 streamgages near and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed were selected from 1930 through 2010 for analysis. Streamflow data were converted to runoff and trend slopes in percent change per decade were calculated. Trend slopes for three runoff statistics (the 7-day minimum, the mean, and the 1-day maximum) were analyzed annually and seasonally. The slopes also were analyzed both spatially and temporally. The spatial results indicated that trend slopes in the northern half of the watershed were generally greater than those in the southern half. The temporal analysis was done by splitting the 80-year flow record into two subsets; records for 28 streamgages were analyzed for 1930 through 1969 and records for 30 streamgages were analyzed for 1970 through 2010. The mean of the data for all sites for each year were plotted so that the following datasets were analyzed: the 7-day minimum runoff for the north, the 7-day minimum runoff for the south, the mean runoff for the north, the mean runoff for the south, the 1-day maximum runoff for the north, and the 1-day maximum runoff for the south. Results indicated that the period 1930 through 1969 was statistically different from the period 1970 through 2010. For the 7-day minimum runoff and the mean runoff, the latter period had significantly higher streamflow than did the earlier period, although within those two periods no significant linear trends were identified. For the 1-day maximum runoff, no step trend or linear trend could be shown to be statistically significant for the north, although the south showed a mixture of an upward step trend accompanied by linear downtrends within the periods. In no case was a change identified that indicated an increasing rate of change over time, and no general pattern was identified of hydrologic conditions becoming "more extreme" over time.

Spatial and temporal trends of reference crop evapotranspiration and its influential variables in Yangtze River Delta, eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yu; Xu, Youpeng; Wang, Yuefeng; Wu, Lei; Li, Guang; Song, Song

2017-11-01

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) is one of the most important links in hydrologic circulation and greatly affects regional agricultural production and water resource management. Its variation has drawn more and more attention in the context of global warming. We used the Penman-Monteith method of the Food and Agriculture Organization, based on meteorological factors such as air temperature, sunshine duration, wind speed, and relative humidity to calculate the ETo over 46 meteorological stations located in the Yangtze River Delta, eastern China, from 1957 to 2014. The spatial distributions and temporal trends in ETo were analyzed based on the modified Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression method, while ArcGIS software was employed to produce the distribution maps. The multiple stepwise regression method was applied in the analysis of the meteorological variable time series to identify the causes of any observed trends in ETo. The results indicated that annual ETo showed an obvious spatial pattern of higher values in the north than in the south. Annual increasing trends were found at 34 meteorological stations (73.91 % of the total), which were mainly located in the southeast. Among them, 12 (26.09 % of the total) stations showed significant trends. We saw a dominance of increasing trends in the monthly ETo except for January, February, and August. The high value zone of monthly ETo appeared in the northwest from February to June, mid-south area from July to August, and southeast coastal area from September to January. The research period was divided into two stages—stage I (1957-1989) and stage II (1990-2014)—to investigate the long-term temporal ETo variation. In stage I, almost 85 % of the total stations experienced decreasing trends, while more than half of the meteorological stations showed significant increasing trends in annual ETo during stage II except in February and September. Relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration were identified as the most dominant meteorological variables influencing annual ETo changes. The results are expected to assist water resource managers and policy makers in making better planning decisions in the research region.

Spatial variability in the trends in extreme storm surges and weekly-scale high water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soomere, Tarmo; Pindsoo, Katri

2016-03-01

We address the possibilities of a separation of the overall increasing trend in maximum water levels of semi-enclosed water bodies into associated trends in the heights of local storm surges and basin-scale components of the water level based on recorded and modelled local water level time series. The test area is the Baltic Sea. Sequences of strong storms may substantially increase its water volume and raise the average sea level by almost 1 m for a few weeks. Such events are singled out from the water level time series using a weekly-scale average. The trends in the annual maxima of the weekly average have an almost constant value along the entire eastern Baltic Sea coast for averaging intervals longer than 4 days. Their slopes are ~4 cm/decade for 8-day running average and decrease with an increase of the averaging interval. The trends for maxima of local storm surge heights represent almost the entire spatial variability in the water level maxima. Their slopes vary from almost zero for the open Baltic Proper coast up to 5-7 cm/decade in the eastern Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga. This pattern suggests that an increase in wind speed in strong storms is unlikely in this area but storm duration may have increased and wind direction may have rotated.

Spring onset variations and long-term trends from new hemispheric-scale products and remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dye, D. G.; Li, X.; Ault, T.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Schwartz, M. D.

2015-12-01

Spring onset is commonly characterized by plant phenophase changes among a variety of biophysical transitions and has important implications for natural and man-managed ecosystems. Here, we present a new integrated analysis of variability in gridded Northern Hemisphere spring onset metrics. We developed a set of hemispheric temperature-based spring indices spanning 1920-2013. As these were derived solely from meteorological data, they are used as a benchmark for isolating the climate system's role in modulating spring "green up" estimated from the annual cycle of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Spatial patterns of interannual variations, teleconnections, and long-term trends were also analyzed in all metrics. At mid-to-high latitudes, all indices exhibit larger variability at interannual to decadal time scales than at spatial scales of a few kilometers. Trends of spring onset vary across space and time. However, compared to long-term trend, interannual to decadal variability generally accounts for a larger portion of the total variance in spring onset timing. Therefore, spring onset trends identified from short existing records may be aliased by decadal climate variations due to their limited temporal depth, even when these records span the entire satellite era. Based on our findings, we also demonstrated that our indices have skill in representing ecosystem-level spring phenology and may have important implications in understanding relationships between phenology, atmosphere dynamics and climate variability.

[Explore the spatial and temporal patterns of water pollution in the Yincungang canal of the Lake Taihu basin, China].

PubMed

Yang, Xiao-Ying; Luo, Xing-Zhang; Zheng, Zheng; Fang, Shu-Bo

2012-09-01

Two high-density snap-shot samplings were conducted along the Yincungang canal, one important tributary of the Lake Tai, in April (low flow period) and June (high flow period) of 2010. Geostatistical analysis based on the river network distance was used to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of the pollutant concentrations along the canal with an emphasis on chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total nitrogen (TN). Study results have indicated: (1) COD and TN concentrations display distinctly different spatial and temporal patterns between the low and high flow periods. COD concentration in June is lower than that in April, while TN concentration has the contrary trend. (2) COD load is relatively constant during the period between the two monitoring periods. The spatial correlation structure of COD is exponential for both April and June, and the change of COD concentration is mainly influenced by hydrological conditions. (3) Nitrogen load from agriculture increased significantly during the period between the two monitoring periods. Large amount of chaotic fertilizing by individual farmers has led to the loss of the spatial correlation among the observed TN concentrations. Hence, changes of TN concentration in June are under the dual influence of agricultural fertilizing and hydrological conditions. In the view of the complex hydrological conditions and serious water pollution in the Lake Taihu region, geostatistical analysis is potentially a useful tool for studying the characteristics of pollutant distribution and making predictions in the region.

Trend analysis of precipitation in Jharkhand State, India. Investigating precipitation variability in Jharkhand State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandniha, Surendra Kumar; Meshram, Sarita Gajbhiye; Adamowski, Jan Franklin; Meshram, Chandrashekhar

2017-10-01

Jharkhand is one of the eastern states of India which has an agriculture-based economy. Uncertain and erratic distribution of precipitation as well as a lack of state water resources planning is the major limitation to crop growth in the region. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability in precipitation in the state was examined using a monthly precipitation time series of 111 years (1901-2011) from 18 meteorological stations. Autocorrelation and Mann-Kendall/modified Mann-Kendall tests were utilized to detect possible trends, and the Theil and Sen slope estimator test was used to determine the magnitude of change over the entire time series. The most probable change year (change point) was detected using the Pettitt-Mann-Whitney test, and the entire time series was sub-divided into two parts: before and after the change point. Arc-Map 9.3 software was utilized to assess the spatial patterns of the trends over the entire state. Annual precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend in 5 out of 18 stations during the whole period. For annual, monsoon and winter periods of precipitation, the slope test indicated a decreasing trend for all stations during 1901-2011. The highest variability was observed in post-monsoon precipitation (77.87 %) and the lowest variability was observed in the annual series (15.76 %) over the 111 years. An increasing trend in precipitation in the state was found during the period 1901-1949, which was reversed during the subsequent period (1950-2011).

An innovative procedure to assess multi-scale temporal trends in groundwater quality: Example of the nitrate in the Seine-Normandy basin, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Benjamin; Baran, Nicole; Bourgine, Bernard

2015-03-01

The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) asks Member States to identify trends in contaminant concentrations in groundwater and to take measures to reach a good chemical status by 2015. In this study, carried out in a large hydrological basin (95,300 km2), an innovative procedure is described for the assessment of recent trends in groundwater nitrate concentrations both at sampling point and regional scales. Temporal variograms of piezometric and nitrate concentration time series are automatically calculated and fitted in order to classify groundwater according to their temporal pattern. These results are then coupled with aquifer lithology to map spatial units within which the modes of diffuse transport of contaminants towards groundwater are assumed to be the same at all points. These spatial units are suitable for evaluating regional trends. The stability over time of the time series is tested based on the cumulative sum principle, to determine the time period during which the trend should be sought. The Mann-Kendall and Regional-Kendall nonparametric tests for monotonic trends, coupled with the Sen-slope test, are applied to the periods following the point breaks thus determined at both the sampling point or regional scales. This novel procedure is robust and enables rapid processing of large databases of raw data. It would therefore be useful for managing groundwater quality in compliance with the aims of the WFD.

Spatial and temporal trends of drought effects in a heterogeneous semi-arid forest ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Assal, Timothy J.; Anderson, Patrick J.; Sibold, Jason

2016-01-01

Drought has long been recognized as a driving mechanism in the forests of western North America and drought-induced mortality has been documented across genera in recent years. Given the frequency of these events are expected to increase in the future, understanding patterns of mortality and plant response to severe drought is important to resource managers. Drought can affect the functional, physiological, structural, and demographic properties of forest ecosystems. Remote sensing studies have documented changes in forest properties due to direct and indirect effects of drought; however, few studies have addressed this at local scales needed to characterize highly heterogeneous ecosystems in the forest-shrubland ecotone. We analyzed a 22-year Landsat time series (1985–2012) to determine changes in forest in an area that experienced a relatively dry decade punctuated by two years of extreme drought. We assessed the relationship between several vegetation indices and field measured characteristics (e.g. plant area index and canopy gap fraction) and applied these indices to trend analysis to uncover the location, direction and timing of change. Finally, we assessed the interaction of climate and topography by forest functional type. The Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI), a measure of canopy water content, had the strongest correlation with short-term field measures of plant area index (R2 = 0.64) and canopy gap fraction (R2 = 0.65). Over the entire time period, 25% of the forested area experienced a significant (p-value < 0.05) negative trend in NDMI, compared to less than 10% in a positive trend. Coniferous forests were more likely to be associated with a negative NDMI trend than deciduous forest. Forests on southern aspects were least likely to exhibit a negative trend while north aspects were most prevalent. Field plots with a negative trend had a lower live density, and higher amounts of standing dead and down trees compared to plots with no trend. Our analysis identifies spatially explicit patterns of long-term trends anchored with ground based evidence to highlight areas of forest that are resistant, persistent or vulnerable to severe drought. The results provide a long-term perspective for the resource management of this area and can be applied to similar ecosystems throughout western North America.

Spatio-temporal analysis of recent groundwater-level trends in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bui, Duong Du; Kawamura, Akira; Tong, Thanh Ngoc; Amaguchi, Hideo; Nakagawa, Naoko

2012-12-01

A groundwater-monitoring network has been in operation in the Red River Delta, Vietnam, since 1995. Trends in groundwater level (1995-2009) in 57 wells in the Holocene unconfined aquifer and 63 wells in the Pleistocene confined aquifer were determined by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator. At each well, 17 time series (e.g. annual, seasonal, monthly), computed from the original data, were analyzed. Analysis of the annual groundwater-level means revealed that 35 % of the wells in the unconfined aquifer showed downward trends, while about 21 % showed upward trends. On the other hand, confined-aquifer groundwater levels experienced downward trends in almost all locations. Spatial distributions of trends indicated that the strongly declining trends (>0.3 m/year) were mainly found in urban areas around Hanoi where there is intensive abstraction of groundwater. Although the trend results for most of the 17 time series at a given well were quite similar, different trend patterns were detected in several. The findings reflect unsustainable groundwater development and the importance of maintaining groundwater monitoring and a database in the Delta, particularly in urban areas.

Evaluating patterns and drivers of spatial change in the recreational guided fishing sector in Alaska

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Understanding the impacts of recreational fishing on habitats and species, as well as the social and ecological importance of place to anglers, requires information on the spatial distribution of fishing activities. This study documented long-term changes in core fishing areas of a major recreational fishery in Alaska and identified biological, regulatory, social, and economic drivers of spatial fishing patterns by charter operators. Using participatory mapping and in-person interviews, we characterized the spatial footprint of 46 charter operators in the communities of Sitka and Homer since the 1990s. The spatial footprint differed between Homer and Sitka respondents, with Homer operators consistently using larger areas for Pacific halibut than Sitka operators. Homer and Sitka showed opposite trends in core fishing location area over time, with an overall decrease in Homer and an overall increase in Sitka. For both Sitka and Homer respondents, the range of areas fished was greater for Pacific halibut than for rockfish/lingcod or Pacific salmon. Spatial patterns were qualitatively different between businesses specializing in single species trips and those that operated multispecies trips and between businesses with one vessel and those with multiple vessels. In Homer, the most frequently cited reasons for changes in the location and/or extent of fishing were changes in trip type and the price of fuel, while in Sitka, the most frequently cited reasons for spatial shifts were changes to Pacific halibut regulations and gaining experience or exploring new locations. The diversity of charter fishing strategies in Alaska may allow individual charter operators to respond differently to perturbations and thus maintain resilience of the industry as a whole to social, environmental, and regulatory change. This research also highlights the importance of understanding fishers’ diverse portfolio of activities to effective ecosystem-based management. PMID:28632745

Evaluating patterns and drivers of spatial change in the recreational guided fishing sector in Alaska.

PubMed

Chan, Maggie N; Beaudreau, Anne H; Loring, Philip A

2017-01-01

Understanding the impacts of recreational fishing on habitats and species, as well as the social and ecological importance of place to anglers, requires information on the spatial distribution of fishing activities. This study documented long-term changes in core fishing areas of a major recreational fishery in Alaska and identified biological, regulatory, social, and economic drivers of spatial fishing patterns by charter operators. Using participatory mapping and in-person interviews, we characterized the spatial footprint of 46 charter operators in the communities of Sitka and Homer since the 1990s. The spatial footprint differed between Homer and Sitka respondents, with Homer operators consistently using larger areas for Pacific halibut than Sitka operators. Homer and Sitka showed opposite trends in core fishing location area over time, with an overall decrease in Homer and an overall increase in Sitka. For both Sitka and Homer respondents, the range of areas fished was greater for Pacific halibut than for rockfish/lingcod or Pacific salmon. Spatial patterns were qualitatively different between businesses specializing in single species trips and those that operated multispecies trips and between businesses with one vessel and those with multiple vessels. In Homer, the most frequently cited reasons for changes in the location and/or extent of fishing were changes in trip type and the price of fuel, while in Sitka, the most frequently cited reasons for spatial shifts were changes to Pacific halibut regulations and gaining experience or exploring new locations. The diversity of charter fishing strategies in Alaska may allow individual charter operators to respond differently to perturbations and thus maintain resilience of the industry as a whole to social, environmental, and regulatory change. This research also highlights the importance of understanding fishers' diverse portfolio of activities to effective ecosystem-based management.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xiong, Wei; Balkovic, Juraj; van der Velde, M.

Crop models are increasingly used to assess impacts of climate change/variability and management practices on productivity and environmental performance of alternative cropping systems. Calibration is an important procedure to improve reliability of model simulations, especially for large area applications. However, global-scale crop model calibration has rarely been exercised due to limited data availability and expensive computing cost. Here we present a simple approach to calibrate Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model for a global implementation of rice. We identify four parameters (potential heat unit – PHU, planting density – PD, harvest index – HI, and biomass energy ratio – BER)more » and calibrate them regionally to capture the spatial pattern of reported rice yield in 2000. Model performance is assessed by comparing simulated outputs with independent FAO national data. The comparison demonstrates that the global calibration scheme performs satisfactorily in reproducing the spatial pattern of rice yield, particularly in main rice production areas. Spatial agreement increases substantially when more parameters are selected and calibrated, but with varying efficiencies. Among the parameters, PHU and HI exhibit the highest efficiencies in increasing the spatial agreement. Simulations with different calibration strategies generate a pronounced discrepancy of 5–35% in mean yields across latitude bands, and a small to moderate difference in estimated yield variability and yield changing trend for the period of 1981–2000. Present calibration has little effects in improving simulated yield variability and trends at both regional and global levels, suggesting further works are needed to reproduce temporal variability of reported yields. This study highlights the importance of crop models’ calibration, and presents the possibility of a transparent and consistent up scaling approach for global crop simulations given current availability of global databases of weather, soil, crop calendar, fertilizer and irrigation management information, and reported yield.« less

Observation-Driven Estimation of the Spatial Variability of 20th Century Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlington, B. D.; Burgos, A.; Thompson, P. R.; Landerer, F. W.; Piecuch, C. G.; Adhikari, S.; Caron, L.; Reager, J. T.; Ivins, E. R.

2018-03-01

Over the past two decades, sea level measurements made by satellites have given clear indications of both global and regional sea level rise. Numerous studies have sought to leverage the modern satellite record and available historic sea level data provided by tide gauges to estimate past sea level rise, leading to several estimates for the 20th century trend in global mean sea level in the range between 1 and 2 mm/yr. On regional scales, few attempts have been made to estimate trends over the same time period. This is due largely to the inhomogeneity and quality of the tide gauge network through the 20th century, which render commonly used reconstruction techniques inadequate. Here, a new approach is adopted, integrating data from a select set of tide gauges with prior estimates of spatial structure based on historical sea level forcing information from the major contributing processes over the past century. The resulting map of 20th century regional sea level rise is optimized to agree with the tide gauge-measured trends, and provides an indication of the likely contributions of different sources to regional patterns. Of equal importance, this study demonstrates the sensitivities of this regional trend map to current knowledge and uncertainty of the contributing processes.

Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinke, A.; Maturilli, M.; Graham, R. M.; Matthes, H.; Handorf, D.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.; Moore, J. C.

2017-12-01

Extreme cyclone events often occur during Arctic winters, and are of concern as they transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, which is associated with mixed-phase clouds and increased longwave downward radiation, and can cause temperatures to rise above freezing resulting in wintertime sea-ice melting or retarded sea-ice growth. With Arctic amplification and associated reduced sea-ice cover and warmer sea surface temperatures, the occurrence of extreme cyclones events could be a plausible scenario. We calculate the spatial patterns, and changes and trends of the number of extreme cyclone events in the Arctic based on ERA-Interim six-hourly sea level pressure (SLP) data for winter (November-February) 1979-2015. Further, we analyze the SLP data from the Ny-Ålesund station for the same 37 year period. We define an extreme cyclone event by an extreme low central pressure (SLP below 985 hPa, which is the 5th percentile of the Ny-Ålesund/N-ICE2015 SLP data). Typically 20-40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called `weather bombs') occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade, according to the Ny-Ålesund data. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones drive considerable warming in that region, consistent with the observed significant winter warming of 3 K/decade. The positive winter trend in extreme cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3-4 events/decade in November-December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of extreme cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February. We relate the regional patterns of the trend in extreme cyclones to anomalously low sea-ice conditions in recent years, together with associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as "blocking-like" circulation patterns (e.g. Scandinavian blocking in December and Ural blocking during January-February).

Coherent tropical-subtropical Holocene see-saw moisture patterns in the Eastern Hemisphere monsoon systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yongbo; Bekeschus, Benjamin; Handorf, Dörthe; Liu, Xingqi; Dallmeyer, Anne; Herzschuh, Ulrike

2017-08-01

The concept of a Global Monsoon (GM) has been proposed based on modern precipitation observations, but its application over a wide range of temporal scales is still under debate. Here, we present a synthesis of 268 continental paleo-moisture records collected from monsoonal systems in the Eastern Hemisphere, including the East Asian Monsoon (EAsM), the Indian Monsoon (IM), the East African Monsoon (EAfM), and the Australian Monsoon (AuM) covering the last 18,000 years. The overall pattern of late Glacial to Holocene moisture change is consistent with those inferred from ice cores and marine records. With respect to the last 10,000 years (10 ka), i.e. a period that has high spatial coverage, a Fuzzy c-Means clustering analysis of the moisture index records together with ;Xie-Beni; index reveals four clusters of our data set. The paleoclimatic meaning of each cluster is interpreted considering the temporal evolution and spatial distribution patterns. The major trend in the tropical AuM, EAfM, and IM regions is a gradual decrease in moisture conditions since the early Holocene. Moisture changes in the EAsM regions show maximum index values between 8 and 6 ka. However, records located in nearby subtropical areas, i.e. in regions not influenced by the intertropical convergence zone, show an opposite trend compared to the tropical monsoon regions (AuM, EAfM and IM), i.e. a gradual increase. Analyses of modern meteorological data reveal the same spatial patterns as in the paleoclimate records such that, in times of overall monsoon strengthening, lower precipitation rates are observed in the nearby subtropical areas. We explain this pattern as the effect of a strong monsoon circulation suppressing air uplift in nearby subtropical areas, and hence hindering precipitation. By analogy to the modern system, this would mean that during the early Holocene strong monsoon period, the intensified ascending airflows within the monsoon domains led to relatively weaker ascending or even descending airflows in the adjacent subtropical regions, resulting in a precipitation deficit compared to the late Holocene. Our conceptual model therefore integrates regionally contrasting moisture changes into the Global Monsoon hypothesis.

Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics in the natural plague foci of Chinese Mongolian gerbils based on spatial autocorrelation.

PubMed

Du, Hai-Wen; Wang, Yong; Zhuang, Da-Fang; Jiang, Xiao-San

2017-08-07

The nest flea index of Meriones unguiculatus is a critical indicator for the prevention and control of plague, which can be used not only to detect the spatial and temporal distributions of Meriones unguiculatus, but also to reveal its cluster rule. This research detected the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the plague natural foci of Mongolian gerbils by body flea index from 2005 to 2014, in order to predict plague outbreaks. Global spatial autocorrelation was used to describe the entire spatial distribution pattern of the body flea index in the natural plague foci of typical Chinese Mongolian gerbils. Cluster and outlier analysis and hot spot analysis were also used to detect the intensity of clusters based on geographic information system methods. The quantity of M. unguiculatus nest fleas in the sentinel surveillance sites from 2005 to 2014 and host density data of the study area from 2005 to 2010 used in this study were provided by Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The epidemic focus regions of the Mongolian gerbils remain the same as the hot spot regions relating to the body flea index. High clustering areas possess a similar pattern as the distribution pattern of the body flea index indicating that the transmission risk of plague is relatively high. In terms of time series, the area of the epidemic focus gradually increased from 2005 to 2007, declined rapidly in 2008 and 2009, and then decreased slowly and began trending towards stability from 2009 to 2014. For the spatial change, the epidemic focus regions began moving northward from the southwest epidemic focus of the Mongolian gerbils from 2005 to 2007, and then moved from north to south in 2007 and 2008. The body flea index of Chinese gerbil foci reveals significant spatial and temporal aggregation characteristics through the employing of spatial autocorrelation. The diversity of temporary and spatial distribution is mainly affected by seasonal variation, the human activity and natural factors.

Time evolution of atmospheric parameters and their influence on sea level pressure over the head Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patra, Anindita; Bhaskaran, Prasad K.; Jose, Felix

2018-06-01

A zonal dipole in the observed trends of wind speed and significant wave height over the Head Bay of Bengal region was recently reported in the literature attributed due to the variations in sea level pressure (SLP). The SLP in turn is governed by prevailing atmospheric conditions such as local temperature, humidity, rainfall, atmospheric pressure, wind field distribution, formation of tropical cyclones, etc. The present study attempts to investigate the inter-annual variability of atmospheric parameters and its role on the observed zonal dipole trend in sea level pressure, surface wind speed and significant wave height. It reports on the aspects related to linear trend as well as its spatial variability for several atmospheric parameters: air temperature, geopotential height, omega (vertical velocity), and zonal wind, over the head Bay of Bengal, by analyzing National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis 2 dataset covering a period of 38 years (1979-2016). Significant warming from sea level to 200 mb pressure level and thereafter cooling above has been noticed during all the seasons. Warming within the troposphere exhibits spatial difference between eastern and western side of the domain. This led to fall in lower tropospheric geopotential height and its east-west variability, exhibiting a zonal dipole pattern across the Head Bay. In the upper troposphere, uplift in geopotential height was found as a result of cooling in higher levels (10-100 mb). Variability in omega also substantiated the observed variations in geopotential height. The study also finds weakening in the upper level westerlies and easterlies. Interestingly, a linear trend in lower tropospheric u-wind component also reveals an east-west dipole pattern over the study region. Further, the study corroborates the reported dipole in trends of sea level pressure, wind speed and significant wave height by evaluating the influence of atmospheric variability on these parameters.

Trends and periodicity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2013 in Hunan Province, central south China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ajiao; He, Xinguang; Guan, Huade; Cai, Yi

2018-04-01

In this study, the trends and periodicity in climate extremes are examined in Hunan Province over the period 1960-2013 on the basis of 27 extreme climate indices calculated from daily temperature and precipitation records at 89 meteorological stations. The results show that in the whole province, temperature extremes exhibit a warming trend with more than 50% stations being statistically significant for 7 out of 16 temperature indices, and the nighttime temperature increases faster than the daytime temperature at the annual scale. The changes in most extreme temperature indices show strongly coherent spatial patterns. Moreover, the change rates of almost all temperature indices in north Hunan are greater than those of other regions. However, the statistically significant changes in indices of extreme precipitation are observed at fewer stations than in extreme temperature indices, forming less spatially coherent patterns. Positive trends in indices of extreme precipitation show that the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events are generally increasing in both annual and seasonal scales, whereas the significant downward trend in consecutive wet days indicates that the precipitation becomes more even over the study period. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of extreme indices for 1960-1986 and 1987-2013 also demonstrates a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and increasing tendency in the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation during the past decades. The variations in extreme climate indices exhibit inconstant frequencies in the wavelet power spectrum. Among the 16 temperature indices, 2 of them show significant 1-year periodic oscillation and 7 of them exhibit significant 4-year cycle during some certain periods. However, significant periodic oscillations can be found in all of the precipitation indices. Wet-day precipitation and three absolute precipitation indices show significant 1-year cycle and other seven provide significant power at the 4-year period, which are mainly found during 1970-1980 and after 1992.

Assessing Potential Future Carbon Dynamics with Climate Change and Fire Management in a Mountainous Landscape on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, R. S.

2010-12-01

Forests of the mountainous landscapes of the maritime Pacific Northwestern USA may have high carbon sequestration potential via their high productivity and moderate to infrequent fire regimes. With climate change, there may be shifts in incidence and severity of fire, especially in the drier areas of the region, via changes to forest productivity and hydrology, and consequent effects to C sequestration and forest structure. To explore this issue, I assessed potential effects of fire management (little fire suppression/wildland fire management/highly effective fire suppression) under two climate change scenarios on future C sequestration dynamics (amounts and spatial pattern) in Olympic National Park, WA, over a 500-year simulation period. I used the simulation platform FireBGCv2, which contains a mechanistic, individual tree succession model, a spatially explicit climate-based biophysical model that uses daily weather data, and a spatially explicit fire model incorporating ignition, spread, and effects on ecosystem components. C sequestration patterns varied over time and spatial and temporal patterns differed somewhat depending on the climate change scenario applied and the fire management methods employed. Under the more extreme climate change scenario with little fire suppression, fires were most frequent and severe and C sequestration decreased. General trends were similar under the more moderate climate change scenario, as compared to current climate, but spatial patterns differed. Both climate change scenarios under highly effective fire suppression showed about 50% of starting total C after the initial transition phase, whereas with 10% fire suppression both scenarios exhibited about 10% of starting amounts. Areas of the landscape that served as refugia for older forest under increasing frequency of high severity fire were also hotspots for C sequestration in a landscape experiencing increasing frequency of disturbance with climate change.

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Negative Global and Tropical OLR Trends Observed by CERES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula; Iredell, Lena

2010-01-01

This paper compares spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the time period September 2002 February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decreasing OLR trend on the order of -0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe. There are very large spatial variations of these trends however, with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics. The spatial patterns of the AIRS and CERES trends are in essentially perfect agreement with each other, as are the anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate. The agreement of anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed from AIRS derived products also indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of the AIRS derived products as well. We used the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived water vapor and cloud products to explain why global OLR has had a large negative trend over the time period September 2002 through February 2010. Tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Nina in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the region 5degN - 20degS latitude extending eastward from 150degW - 30 E longitude at that time, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Nino, with a corresponding change in sign of observed anomalies of mid-tropospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR in this region, as we] l as that of OLR anomalies in the tropics and globally. Monthly mean anomalies of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over this region are all shown to be highly correlated in time with those of an El Nino anomaly index four months previously. The El Nino index is defined as the SST anomaly averaged over the area 15S to 15N and 160W eastward to 30E. If one excludes the area 5degN - 20degS, 150degW - 30degE from the statistics, the negative area mean tropical OLR trends, as well as OLR trends over the rest of the globe, are substantially

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Negative Global and Tropical OLR Trends Observed by CERES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susskind, J.; Molnar, G. I.; Iredell, L. F.; Sounder Research Team

2010-12-01

Joel Susskind, Gyula Molnar, and Lena Iredell NASA GSFC Sounder Research Team Abstract This paper compares spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the time period September 2002 - February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decreasing OLR trend on the order of -0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe. There are very large spatial variations of these trends however, with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics. The spatial patterns of the AIRS and CERES trends are in essentially perfect agreement with each other, as are the anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate. The agreement of anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed from AIRS derived products also indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of the AIRS derived products as well. We used the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived water vapor and cloud products to explain why global OLR has had a large negative trend over the time period September 2002 through February 2010. Tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Niña in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the region 5°N - 20°S latitude extending eastward from 150°W - 30°E longitude at that time, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Niño, with a corresponding change in sign of observed anomalies of mid-tropospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR in this region, as well as that of OLR anomalies in the tropics and globally. Monthly mean anomalies of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over this region are all shown to be highly correlated in time with those of an El Nino anomaly index four months previously. The El Nino index is defined as the SST anomaly averaged over the area 15S to 15N and 160W eastward to 30E. If one excludes the area 5°N - 20°S, 150°W - 30°E from the statistics, the negative area mean tropical OLR trends, as well as OLR trends over the rest of the globe, are substantially reduced over the time period under study.

Spatiotemporal evolution of the chlorophyll a trend in the North Atlantic Ocean.

PubMed

Zhang, Min; Zhang, Yuanling; Shu, Qi; Zhao, Chang; Wang, Gang; Wu, Zhaohua; Qiao, Fangli

2018-01-15

Analyses of the chlorophyll a concentration (chla) from satellite ocean color products have suggested the decadal-scale variability of chla linked to the climate change. The decadal-scale variability in chla is both spatially and temporally non-uniform. We need to understand the spatiotemporal evolution of chla in decadal or multi-decadal timescales to better evaluate its linkage to climate variability. Here, the spatiotemporal evolution of the chla trend in the North Atlantic Ocean for the period 1997-2016 is analyzed using the multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition method. We find that this variable trend signal of chla shows a dipole pattern between the subpolar gyre and along the Gulf Stream path, and propagation along the opposite direction of the North Atlantic Current. This propagation signal has an overlapping variability of approximately twenty years. Our findings suggest that the spatiotemporal evolution of chla during the two most recent decades is part of the multidecadal variations and possibly regulated by the changes of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, whereas the mechanisms of such evolution patterns still need to be explored. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phosphorus and nitrogen fluxes carried by 21 Finnish agricultural rivers in 1985-2006.

PubMed

Ekholm, Petri; Rankinen, Katri; Rita, Hannu; Räike, Antti; Sjöblom, Heidi; Raateland, Arjen; Vesikko, Ljudmila; Cano Bernal, José Enrique; Taskinen, Antti

2015-04-01

The Finnish Agri-Environmental Programme aims to reduce nutrient load to waters. Using national monitoring data, we estimated the agricultural load (incl. natural background) of total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) transported by 21 Finnish rivers to the northern Baltic Sea and analysed the flow-adjusted trends in the loads and concentrations from 1985 to 2006. We also related the loads to spatial and temporal patterns in catchment and agricultural characteristics. Agricultural load of TN increased, especially in the rivers discharging into the Bothnian Bay, while the load of TP decreased in most of the rivers, except those discharging into the Archipelago Sea. The trends may partly be related to a decrease in grassed area (TP, TN) and increased mineralisation (TN), but the available data on catchment and agricultural characteristics did not fully explain the observed pattern. Our study showed that data arising from relatively infrequent monitoring may prove useful for analysing long-term trend. The mutual correlation among the explaining variables hampered the analysis of the load generating factors.

Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping.

PubMed

Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2016-07-15

Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Spatial analysis of lettuce downy mildew using geostatistics and geographic information systems.

PubMed

Wu, B M; van Bruggen, A H; Subbarao, K V; Pennings, G G

2001-02-01

ABSTRACT The epidemiology of lettuce downy mildew has been investigated extensively in coastal California. However, the spatial patterns of the disease and the distance that Bremia lactucae spores can be transported have not been determined. During 1995 to 1998, we conducted several field- and valley-scale surveys to determine spatial patterns of this disease in the Salinas valley. Geostatistical analyses of the survey data at both scales showed that the influence range of downy mildew incidence at one location on incidence at other locations was between 80 and 3,000 m. A linear relationship was detected between semivariance and lag distance at the field scale, although no single statistical model could fit the semi-variograms at the valley scale. Spatial interpolation by the inverse distance weighting method with a power of 2 resulted in plausible estimates of incidence throughout the valley. Cluster analysis in geographic information systems on the interpolated disease incidence from different dates demonstrated that the Salinas valley could be divided into two areas, north and south of Salinas City, with high and low disease pressure, respectively. Seasonal and spatial trends along the valley suggested that the distinction between the downy mildew conducive and nonconducive areas might be determined by environmental factors.

Long-term (1930-2010) trends in groundwater levels in Texas: influences of soils, landcover and water use.

PubMed

Chaudhuri, Sriroop; Ale, Srinivasulu

2014-08-15

Rapid groundwater depletion has raised grave concerns about sustainable development in many parts of Texas, as well as in other parts of the world. Previous hydrologic investigations on groundwater levels in Texas were conducted mostly on aquifer-specific basis, and hence lacked state-wide panoramic view. The aim of this study was to present a qualitative overview of long-term (1930-2010) trends in groundwater levels in Texas and identify spatial patterns by applying different statistical (boxplots, correlation-regression, hierarchical cluster analysis) and geospatial techniques (Moran's I, Local Indicators of Spatial Association) on 136,930 groundwater level observations from Texas Water Development Board's database. State-wide decadal median water-levels declined from about 14 m from land surface in the 1930s to about 36 m in the 2000s. Number of counties with deeper median water-levels (water-level depth>100 m) increased from 2 to 13 between 1930s and 2000s, accompanied by a decrease in number of counties having shallower median water-levels (water-level depth<25 m) from 134 to 113. Water-level declines across Texas, however, mostly followed logarithmic trends marked by leveling-off phenomena in recent times. Assessment of water-levels by Groundwater Management Areas (GMA), management units created to address groundwater depletion issues, indicated hotspots of deep water-levels in Texas Panhandle and GMA 8 since the 1960s. Contrasting patterns in water use, landcover, geology and soil properties distinguished Texas Panhandle from GMA 8. Irrigated agriculture is the major cause of depletion in the Texas Panhandle as compared to increasing urbanization in GMA 8. Overall our study indicated that use of robust spatial and statistical methods can reveal important details about the trends in water-level changes and shed lights on the associated factors. Due to very generic nature, techniques used in this study can also be applied to other areas with similar eco-hydrologic issues to identify regions that warrant future management actions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An exploration of collaborative scientific production at MIT through spatial organization and institutional affiliation.

PubMed

Claudel, Matthew; Massaro, Emanuele; Santi, Paolo; Murray, Fiona; Ratti, Carlo

2017-01-01

Academic research is increasingly cross-disciplinary and collaborative, between and within institutions. In this context, what is the role and relevance of an individual's spatial position on a campus? We examine the collaboration patterns of faculty at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, through their academic output (papers and patents), and their organizational structures (institutional affiliation and spatial configuration) over a 10-year time span. An initial comparison of output types reveals: 1. diverging trends in the composition of collaborative teams over time (size, faculty versus non-faculty, etc.); and 2. substantively different patterns of cross-building and cross-disciplinary collaboration. We then construct a multi-layered network of authors, and find two significant features of collaboration on campus: 1. a network topology and community structure that reveals spatial versus institutional collaboration bias; and 2. a persistent relationship between proximity and collaboration, well fit with an exponential decay model. This relationship is consistent for both papers and patents, and present also in exclusively cross-disciplinary work. These insights contribute an architectural dimension to the field of scientometrics, and take a first step toward empirical space-planning policy that supports collaboration within institutions.

An exploration of collaborative scientific production at MIT through spatial organization and institutional affiliation

PubMed Central

Santi, Paolo; Murray, Fiona; Ratti, Carlo

2017-01-01

Academic research is increasingly cross-disciplinary and collaborative, between and within institutions. In this context, what is the role and relevance of an individual’s spatial position on a campus? We examine the collaboration patterns of faculty at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, through their academic output (papers and patents), and their organizational structures (institutional affiliation and spatial configuration) over a 10-year time span. An initial comparison of output types reveals: 1. diverging trends in the composition of collaborative teams over time (size, faculty versus non-faculty, etc.); and 2. substantively different patterns of cross-building and cross-disciplinary collaboration. We then construct a multi-layered network of authors, and find two significant features of collaboration on campus: 1. a network topology and community structure that reveals spatial versus institutional collaboration bias; and 2. a persistent relationship between proximity and collaboration, well fit with an exponential decay model. This relationship is consistent for both papers and patents, and present also in exclusively cross-disciplinary work. These insights contribute an architectural dimension to the field of scientometrics, and take a first step toward empirical space-planning policy that supports collaboration within institutions. PMID:28640829

Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

PubMed

Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

2018-02-01

Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Assessment of primary and secondary ambient particle trends using satellite aerosol optical depth and ground speciation data in the New England region, United States

PubMed Central

Lee, Hyung Joo; Kang, Choong-Min; Coull, Brent A.; Bell, Michelle L.; Koutrakis, Petros

2014-01-01

The effectiveness of air pollution emission control policies can be evaluated by examining ambient pollutant concentration trends that are observed at a large number of ground monitoring sites over time. In this paper, we used ground monitoring measurements in conjunction with satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data to investigate fine particulate matter (PM2.5; particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm) trends and their spatial patterns over a large U.S. region, New England, during 2000–2008. We examined the trends in rural and urban areas to get a better insight about the trends of regional and local source emissions. Decreases in PM2.5 concentrations (μg/m3) were more pronounced in urban areas than in rural ones. In addition, the highest and lowest PM2.5 decreases (μg/m3) were observed for winter and summer, respectively. Together, these findings suggest that primary particle concentrations decreased more relative to secondary ones. This is also supported by the analysis of the speciation data which showed that downward trends of primary pollutants including black carbon were stronger than those of secondary pollutants including sulfate. Furthermore, this study found that ambient primary pollutants decreased at the same rate as their respective source emissions. This was not the case for secondary pollutants which decreased at a slower rate than that of their precursor emissions. This indicates that concentrations of secondary pollutants depend not only on the primary emissions but also on the availability of atmospheric oxidants which might not change during the study period. This novel approach of investigating spatially varying concentration trends, in combination with ground PM2.5 species trends, can be of substantial regulatory importance. PMID:24906074

Multi-sensor studies of short-term interannual variations of aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leptoukh, G.; Zubko, V.

2009-04-01

In the present paper, we analyze in details the interannual variability of MODIS (Terra and Aqua) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) for years 2002 - 2008. The AOD anomaly maps of short-term trends exhibit interesting spatial variability with the AOD percent change per year reaching 10% or more in some contiguous areas ("hot" and "cold" spots). These numbers seem to be rather high to reflect the actual changes in aerosol emissions, thus prompting the following questions: Are these changes real, or some of these high trends are in fact artifacts of the analysis methods used? Can they be attributed to trends in aerosol sampling trends? Are they caused by changes in meteorological patterns affecting aerosol transport routs? Is there any relation of these changes to ENSO, NAO, and other known atmospheric cycles? Our analysis (still in progress) provides numerical answers and physical explanation to some of these questions. We investigate alternative methods for trend calculation and provide recommendations for a more robust AOD trend calculation. We correlate AOD spatial and temporal distributions with those of humidity, winds, seas surface temperature, and other geophysical parameters using remote sensing data from various space-based sensors, e.g., MODIS, AIRS, along with reanalysis data. We provide the most likely relation of AOD changes observed in some equatorial areas with the recent phase of ENSO. As a result, we identify regions where AOD short-term trends can be attributed to causes other than drastic changes in local aerosol emission and/or caused by the natural outbreaks (fires, volcano eruptions, etc.). We also identify regions with monotonic change in local pollution where the alternative explanations fail to provide different interpretation for the observed trends.

Remotely Sensed Spatio-Temporal Variability of Snow Cover in Himalayan Region with Perspective of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, S.; Ojha, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change and its impact of water resource have gained tremendous attention among scientific committee, governments and other stakeholders since last couple of decades, especially in Himalayan region. In this study, we purpose remotely sensed measurements to monitor snow cover, both spatially and temporal, and assess climate change impact on water resource. The snow cover data from MODIS satellite (2000-2010) have been used to analyze some climate change indicators. In particular, the variability in the maximum snow extent with elevations, its temporal variability (8-day, monthly, seasonal and annual), its variation trend and its relation with temperature have been analyzed. The snow products used in this study are the maximum snow extent and fractional snow covers, which come in 8-day temporal and 500m and 0.05 degree spatial resolutions, respectively. The results showed a tremendous potential of the MODIS snow product for studying the spatial and temporal variability of snow as well as the study of climate change impact in large and inaccessible regions like the Himalayas. The snow area extent (SAE) (%) time series exhibits similar patterns during seven hydrological years, even though there are some deviations in the accumulation and melt periods. The analysis showed relatively well inverse relation between the daily mean temperature and SAE during the melting period. Some important trends of snow fall are also observed. In particular, the decreasing trend in January and increasing trend in late winter and early spring may be interpreted as a signal of a possible seasonal shift. However, it requires more years of data to verify this conclusion.

Variability, trends, and drivers of regional fluctuations in Australian fire activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian

2017-07-01

Throughout the world fire regimes are determined by climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic factors, and they have great spatial and temporal variability. The availability of high-quality satellite data has revolutionized fire monitoring, allowing for a more consistent and comprehensive evaluation of temporal and spatial patterns. Here we utilize a satellite based "active fire" (AF) product to statistically analyze 2001-2015 variability and trends in Australian fire activity and link this to precipitation and large-scale atmospheric structures (namely, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)) known to have potential for predicting fire activity in different regions. It is found that Australian fire activity is decreasing (during summer (December-February)) or stable, with high temporal and spatial variability. Eastern New South Wales (NSW) has the strongest decreasing trend (to the 1% confidence level), especially during the winter (JJA) season. Other significantly decreasing areas are Victoria/NSW, Tasmania, and South-east Queensland. These decreasing fire regions are relatively highly populated, so we suggest that the declining trends are due to improved fire management, reducing the size and duration of bush fires. Almost half of all Australian AFs occur during spring (September-November). We show that there is considerable potential throughout Australia for a skillful forecast for future season fire activity based on current and previous precipitation activity, ENSO phase, and to a lesser degree, the IOD phase. This is highly variable, depending on location, e.g., the IOD phase is for more indicative of fire activity in southwest Western Australia than for Queensland.

Spatial and temporal variations of particulate organic carbon in the Yellow-Bohai Sea over 2002-2016.

PubMed

Fan, Hang; Wang, Xiujun; Zhang, Haibo; Yu, Zhitong

2018-05-22

The Yellow-Bohai Sea (YBS) is a typical marginal sea in the Northwest Pacific Ocean; however, little is known about the dynamics of particulate organic carbon (POC) and underlying mechanisms. Here, we analyze the spatial and temporal variations of surface POC derived from MODIS-Aqua during 2002-2016. Overall, POC is higher in the Bohai Sea (315-588 mg m -3 ) than in the Yellow Sea (181-492 mg m -3 ), and higher in the nearshore than in the offshore. Surface POC is highest in spring in the YBS, and lowest in winter (summer) in the Bohai Sea (the Yellow Sea). The spatial and seasonal patterns of POC are due to combined influences of primary productivity, water exchange, sediment resuspension and terrestrial inputs. Surface POC shows an overall decreasing trend prior to 2012 followed by an upward trend until 2015 in the YBS, which is almost opposite to chlorophyll; the decrease (increase) may result from strengthened (weakened) water exchange with the East China Sea through the Yellow Sea Warm Current. Declined terrestrial runoff is also partly responsible for the decrease prior to 2012. Our study suggests that water exchange and sediment resuspension are dominant factors regulating the spatial and temporal variability of POC in the YBS.

75 years of dryland science: Trends and gaps in arid ecology literature.

PubMed

Greenville, Aaron C; Dickman, Chris R; Wardle, Glenda M

2017-01-01

Growth in the publication of scientific articles is occurring at an exponential rate, prompting a growing need to synthesise information in a timely manner to combat urgent environmental problems and guide future research. Here, we undertake a topic analysis of dryland literature over the last 75 years (8218 articles) to identify areas in arid ecology that are well studied and topics that are emerging. Four topics-wetlands, mammal ecology, litter decomposition and spatial modelling, were identified as 'hot topics' that showed higher than average growth in publications from 1940 to 2015. Five topics-remote sensing, climate, habitat and spatial, agriculture and soils-microbes, were identified as 'cold topics', with lower than average growth over the survey period, but higher than average numbers of publications. Topics in arid ecology clustered into seven broad groups on word-based similarity. These groups ranged from mammal ecology and population genetics, broad-scale management and ecosystem modelling, plant ecology, agriculture and ecophysiology, to populations and paleoclimate. These patterns may reflect trends in the field of ecology more broadly. We also identified two broad research gaps in arid ecology: population genetics, and habitat and spatial research. Collaborations between population genetics and ecologists and investigations of ecological processes across spatial scales would contribute profitably to the advancement of arid ecology and to ecology more broadly.

Mortality and Case Fatality Due to Visceral Leishmaniasis in Brazil: A Nationwide Analysis of Epidemiology, Trends and Spatial Patterns

PubMed Central

Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Lima, Mauricélia da Silveira; Ramos, Alberto Novaes; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Heukelbach, Jorg

2014-01-01

Background Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a significant public health problem in Brazil and several regions of the world. This study investigated the magnitude, temporal trends and spatial distribution of mortality related to VL in Brazil. Methods We performed a study based on secondary data obtained from the Brazilian Mortality Information System. We included all deaths in Brazil from 2000 to 2011, in which VL was recorded as cause of death. We present epidemiological characteristics, trend analysis of mortality and case fatality rates by joinpoint regression models, and spatial analysis using municipalities as geographical units of analysis. Results In the study period, 12,491,280 deaths were recorded in Brazil. VL was mentioned in 3,322 (0.03%) deaths. Average annual age-adjusted mortality rate was 0.15 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants and case fatality rate 8.1%. Highest mortality rates were observed in males (0.19 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), <1 year-olds (1.03 deaths/100,000 inhabitants) and residents in Northeast region (0.30 deaths/100,000 inhabitants). Highest case fatality rates were observed in males (8.8%), ≥70 year-olds (43.8%) and residents in South region (17.7%). Mortality and case fatality rates showed a significant increase in Brazil over the period, with different patterns between regions: increasing mortality rates in the North (Annual Percent Change – APC: 9.4%; 95% confidence interval – CI: 5.3 to 13.6), and Southeast (APC: 8.1%; 95% CI: 2.6 to 13.9); and increasing case fatality rates in the Northeast (APC: 4.0%; 95% CI: 0.8 to 7.4). Spatial analysis identified a major cluster of high mortality encompassing a wide geographic range in North and Northeast Brazil. Conclusions Despite ongoing control strategies, mortality related to VL in Brazil is increasing. Mortality and case fatality vary considerably between regions, and surveillance and control measures should be prioritized in high-risk clusters. Early diagnosis and treatment are fundamental strategies for reducing case fatality of VL in Brazil. PMID:24699517

Spatial-temporal dynamics of NDVI and Chl-a concentration from 1998 to 2009 in the East coastal zone of China: integrating terrestrial and oceanic components.

PubMed

Hou, Xiyong; Li, Mingjie; Gao, Meng; Yu, Liangju; Bi, Xiaoli

2013-01-01

Annual normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration are the most important large-scale indicators of terrestrial and oceanic ecosystem net primary productivity. In this paper, the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor level 3 standard mapped image annual products from 1998 to 2009 are used to study the spatial-temporal characters of terrestrial NDVI and oceanic Chl-a concentration on two sides of the coastline of China by using the methods of mean value (M), coefficient of variation (CV), the slope of unary linear regression model (Slope), and the Hurst index (H). In detail, we researched and analyzed the spatial-temporal dynamics, the longitudinal zonality and latitudinal zonality, the direction, intensity, and persistency of historical changes. The results showed that: (1) spatial patterns of M and CV between NDVI and Chl-a concentration from 1998 to 2009 were very different. The dynamic variation of terrestrial NDVI was much mild, while the variation of oceanic Chl-a concentration was relatively much larger; (2) distinct longitudinal zonality was found for Chl-a concentration and NDVI due to their hypersensitivity to the distance to shoreline, and strong latitudinal zonality existed for Chl-a concentration while terrestrial NDVI had a very weak latitudinal zonality; (3) overall, the NDVI showed a slight decreasing trend while the Chl-a concentration showed a significant increasing trend in the past 12 years, and both of them exhibit strong self-similarity and long-range dependence which indicates opposite future trends between land and ocean.

Temporal trend of the snow-related variables in Sierra Nevada in the last years: An analysis combining Earth Observation and hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Luque, Antonio J.; Herrero, Javier; Bonet, Francisco J.; Pérez-Pérez, Ramón

2016-04-01

Climate change is causing declines in snow-cover extent and duration in European mountain ranges. This is especially important in Mediterranean mountain ranges where the observed trends towards precipitation and higher temperatures can provoke problems of water scarcity. In this work, we analyzed temporal trends (2000 to 2014) of snow-related variables obtained from satellite and modelling data in Sierra Nevada, a Mediterranean high-mountain range located in Southern Spain, at 37°N. Snow cover indicators (snow-cover duration, snow-cover onset dates and snow-cover melting dates) were obtained by processing images of MOD10A2 MODIS product using an automated workflow. Precipitation data were obtained using WiMMed, a complete and fully distributed hydrological model that is used to map the annual rainfall and snowfall with a resolution of 30x30 m over the whole study area. It uses expert algorithms to interpolate precipitation and temperature at an hourly scale, and simulates partition of precipitation into snowfall with several methods. For each snow-related indicator (snow-covers and snowfall), a trend analysis was applied at the MODIS pixel scale during the study period (2000-2014). We applied Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation in each of the pixels comprising Sierra Nevada. The trend analysis assesses the intensity, magnitude and degree of statistical significance during the period analysed. The spatial pattern of these trends was explored according to elevation ranges. Finally, we explored the relationship between trends of snow-cover related indicators and precipitation trends. Our results show that snow-cover has undergone significant changes in the last 14 years. 80 % of the pixels covering Sierra Nevada showed a negative trend in the duration of snow-cover. We also observed a delay in the snow-cover onset date (68.03 % pixels showing a positive trend in the snow-cover onset date) and an advance in the melt date (80.72 % of pixels followed a negative trend for the snow-cover melting date). Precipitation does not show a significant trend for these years, even though its inter-annual variability has been outstanding. The maximum mean annual precipitation of 906 mm/year doubles the mean precipitation, which somehow compensates for the occurrence of a sequence of dry years with a minimum of 250 mm/year. The assessment of the spatial pattern of snow cover duration shows that both the trend and the slope of the trend becomes more pronounced with elevation. At higher elevations the snow-cover duration decreased an average of 3 days from 2000-2014. This research has been funded by ECOPOTENTIAL (Improving future ecosystem benefits through Earth Observations) Horizon 2020 EU project, and Sierra Nevada Global Change Observatory (LTER-site)

On the suitability of current atmospheric reanalyses for regional warming studies over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chunlüe; He, Yanyi; Wang, Kaicun

2018-06-01

Reanalyses are widely used because they add value to routine observations by generating physically or dynamically consistent and spatiotemporally complete atmospheric fields. Existing studies include extensive discussions of the temporal suitability of reanalyses in studies of global change. This study adds to this existing work by investigating the suitability of reanalyses in studies of regional climate change, in which land-atmosphere interactions play a comparatively important role. In this study, surface air temperatures (Ta) from 12 current reanalysis products are investigated; in particular, the spatial patterns of trends in Ta are examined using homogenized measurements of Ta made at ˜ 2200 meteorological stations in China from 1979 to 2010. The results show that ˜ 80 % of the mean differences in Ta between the reanalyses and the in situ observations can be attributed to the differences in elevation between the stations and the model grids. Thus, the Ta climatologies display good skill, and these findings rebut previous reports of biases in Ta. However, the biases in theTa trends in the reanalyses diverge spatially (standard deviation = 0.15-0.30 °C decade-1 using 1° × 1° grid cells). The simulated biases in the trends in Ta correlate well with those of precipitation frequency, surface incident solar radiation (Rs) and atmospheric downward longwave radiation (Ld) among the reanalyses (r = -0.83, 0.80 and 0.77; p < 0.1) when the spatial patterns of these variables are considered. The biases in the trends in Ta over southern China (on the order of -0.07 °C decade-1) are caused by biases in the trends in Rs, Ld and precipitation frequency on the order of 0.10, -0.08 and -0.06 °C decade-1, respectively. The biases in the trends in Ta over northern China (on the order of -0.12 °C decade-1) result jointly from those in Ld and precipitation frequency. Therefore, improving the simulation of precipitation frequency and Rs helps to maximize the signal component corresponding to regional climate. In addition, the analysis of Ta observations helps represent regional warming in ERA-Interim and JRA-55. Incorporating vegetation dynamics in reanalyses and the use of accurate aerosol information, as in the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), would lead to improvements in the modelling of regional warming. The use of the ensemble technique adopted in the twentieth-century atmospheric model ensemble ERA-20CM significantly narrows the uncertainties associated with regional warming in reanalyses (standard deviation = 0.15 °C decade-1).

Spatial and Temporal Trends of Snowfall in Central New York - A Lake Effect Dominated Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartnett, Justin Joseph

Central New York is located in one of the snowiest regions in the United States, with the city of Syracuse, New York the snowiest metropolis in the nation. Snowfall in the region generally begins in mid-November and lasts until late-March. Snow accumulation occurs from a multitude of conditions: frontal systems, mid-latitude cyclones, Nor'easters, and most notably lake-effect storms. Lake effect snowfall (LES) is a difficult parameter to forecast due to the isolated and highly variable nature of the storm. Consequently, studies have attempted to determine changes in snowfall for lake-effect dominated regions. Annual snowfall patterns are of particular concern as seasonal snowfall totals are vital for water resources, winter businesses, agriculture, government and state agencies, and much more. Through the use of snowfall, temperature, precipitation, and location data from the National Weather Service's Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), spatial and temporal changes in snowfall for Central New York were determined. In order to determine climatic changes in snowfall, statistical analyses were performed (i.e. least squares estimation, correlations, principal component analyses, etc.) and spatial maps analyzed. Once snowfall trends were determined, factors influencing the trends were examined. Long-term snowfall trends for CNY were positive for original stations (˜0.46 +/- 0.20 in. yr -1) and homogenously filtered stations (0.23 +/- 0.20 in. yr -1). However, snowfall trends for shorter time-increments within the long-term period were not consistent, as positive, negative, and neutral trends were calculated. Regional differences in snowfall trends were observed for CNY as typical lake-effect areas (northern counties, the Tug Hill Plateau and the Southern Hills) experienced larger snowfall trends than areas less dominated by LES. Typical lake-effect months (December - February) experienced the greatest snowfall trend in CNY compared to other winter months. The influence of teleconnections on seasonal snowfall in CNY was not pronounced; however, there was a slight significant (5%) correlation (< 0.35) with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. It was not clear if changes in air temperature or changes in precipitation were the cause of variations in snowfall trends. It was also inconclusive if the elevation or distance from Lake Ontario resulted in increased snowfall trends. Results from this study will aid in seasonal snowfall forecasts in CNY, which can be used to predict future snowfall. Even though the study area is regionally specific, the methods may be applied to other lake effect dominated areas to determine temporal and spatial variations in snowfall. This study will enhance climatologists and operational forecasters' awareness and understanding of snowfall, especially lake effect snowfall in CNY.

Multi-Scale Analysis of Trends in Northeastern Temperate Forest Springtime Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, M.; Melaas, E. K.; Sulla-menashe, D. J.; Friedl, M. A.

2017-12-01

The timing of spring leaf emergence is highly variable in many ecosystems, exerts first-order control growing season length, and significantly modulates seasonally-integrated photosynthesis. Numerous studies have reported trends toward earlier spring phenology in temperate forests, with some papers indicating that this trend is also leading to increased carbon uptake. At broad spatial scales, however, most of these studies have used data from coarse spatial resolution instruments such as MODIS, which does not resolve ecologically important landscape-scale patterns in phenology. In this work, we examine how long-term trends in spring phenology differ across three data sources acquired at different scales of measurements at the Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts. Specifically, we compared trends in the timing of phenology based on long-term in-situ measurements of phenology, estimates based on eddy-covariance measurements of net carbon uptake transition dates, and from two sources of satellite-based remote sensing (MODIS and Landsat) land surface phenology (LSP) data. Our analysis focused on the flux footprint surrounding the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurements (EMS) tower. Our results reveal clearly defined trends toward earlier springtime phenology in Landsat LSP and in the timing of tower-based net carbon uptake. However, we find no statistically significant trend in springtime phenology measured from MODIS LSP data products, possibly because the time series of MODIS observations is relatively short (13 years). The trend in tower-based transition data exhibited a larger negative value than the trend derived from Landsat LSP data (-0.42 and -0.28 days per year for 21 and 28 years, respectively). More importantly, these results have two key implications regarding how changes in spring phenology are impacting carbon uptake at landscape-scale. First, long-term trends in spring phenology can be quite different, depending on what data source is used to estimate the trend, and 2) the response of carbon uptake to climate change may be more sensitive than the response of land surface phenology itself.

Spatio-temporal variability of soil water content on the local scale in a Mediterranean mountain area (Vallcebre, North Eastern Spain). How different spatio-temporal scales reflect mean soil water content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina, Antonio J.; Latron, Jérôme; Rubio, Carles M.; Gallart, Francesc; Llorens, Pilar

2014-08-01

As a result of complex human-land interactions and topographic variability, many Mediterranean mountain catchments are covered by agricultural terraces that have locally modified the soil water content dynamic. Understanding these local-scale dynamics helps us grasp better how hydrology behaves on the catchment scale. Thus, this study examined soil water content variability in the upper 30 cm of the soil on a Mediterranean abandoned terrace in north-east Spain. Using a dataset of high spatial (regular grid of 128 automatic TDR probes at 2.5 m intervals) and temporal (20-min time step) resolution, gathered throughout a 84-day period, the spatio-temporal variability of soil water content at the local scale and the way that different spatio-temporal scales reflect the mean soil water content were investigated. Soil water content spatial variability and its relation to wetness conditions were examined, along with the spatial structuring of the soil water content within the terrace. Then, the ability of single probes and of different combinations of spatial measurements (transects and grids) to provide a good estimate of mean soil water content on the terrace scale was explored by means of temporal stability analyses. Finally, the effect of monitoring frequency on the magnitude of detectable daily soil water content variations was studied. Results showed that soil water content spatial variability followed a bimodal pattern of increasing absolute variability with increasing soil water content. In addition, a linear trend of decreasing soil water content as the distance from the inner part of the terrace increased was identified. Once this trend was subtracted, resulting semi-variograms suggested that the spatial resolution examined was too high to appreciate spatial structuring in the data. Thus, the spatial pattern should be considered as random. Of all the spatial designs tested, the 10 × 10 m mesh grid (9 probes) was considered the most suitable option for a good, time-stable estimate of mean soil water content, as no improvement was obtained with the 5 × 5 m mesh grid (30 probes). Finally, the results of temporal aggregation showed that decreasing the monitoring frequency down to 8 h during wetting-up periods and to 1 day during drying-down ones did not result in a loss of information on daily soil water content variations.

Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part II: Evaluations and Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murakami, K.; Sasai, T.; Kato, S.; Niwa, Y.; Saito, M.; Takagi, H.; Matsunaga, T.; Hiraki, K.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Yokota, T.

2015-12-01

Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern in land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. Many studies have been trying to reveal distribution of carbon exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and atmosphere for understanding global carbon cycle dynamics by using terrestrial biosphere models, satellite data, inventory data, and so on. However, most studies remained within several tens of kilometers grid spatial resolution, and the results have not been enough to understand the detailed pattern of carbon exchanges based on ecological community and to evaluate the carbon stocks by forest ecosystems in each countries. Improving the sophistication of spatial resolution is obviously necessary to enhance the accuracy of carbon exchanges. Moreover, the improvement may contribute to global warming awareness, policy makers and other social activities. We show global terrestrial carbon exchanges (net ecosystem production, net primary production, and gross primary production) with 1km-grid resolution. The methodology for these estimations are shown in the 2015 AGU FM poster "Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part I: Developing Inputs and Modelling". In this study, we evaluated the carbon exchanges in various regions with other approaches. We used the satellite-driven biosphere model (BEAMS) as our estimations, GOSAT L4A CO2 flux data, NEP retrieved by NICAM and CarbonTracer2013 flux data, for period from Jun 2001 to Dec 2012. The temporal patterns for this period were indicated similar trends between BEAMS, GOSAT, NICAM, and CT2013 in many sub-continental regions. Then, we estimated the terrestrial carbon exchanges in each countries, and could indicated the temporal patterns of the exchanges in large carbon stock regions.Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern of land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. Many studies have been trying to reveal distribution of carbon exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and atmosphere for understanding global carbon cycle dynamics by using terrestrial biosphere models, satellite data, inventory data, and so on. However, most studies remained within several tens of kilometers grid spatial resolution, and the results have not been enough to understand the detailed pattern of carbon exchanges based on ecological community and to evaluate the carbon stocks by forest ecosystems in each countries. Improving the sophistication of spatial resolution is obviously necessary to enhance the accuracy of carbon exchanges. Moreover, the improvement may contribute to global warming awareness, policy makers and other social activities. We show global terrestrial carbon exchanges (net ecosystem production, net primary production, and gross primary production) with 1km-grid resolution. The methodology for these estimations are shown in the 2015 AGU FM poster "Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part I: Developing Inputs and Modelling". In this study, we evaluated the carbon exchanges in various regions with other approaches. We used the satellite-driven biosphere model (BEAMS) as our estimations, GOSAT L4A CO2 flux data, NEP retrieved by NICAM and CarbonTracer2013 flux data, for period from Jun 2001 to Dec 2012. The temporal patterns for this period were indicated similar trends between BEAMS, GOSAT, NICAM, and CT2013 in many sub-continental regions. Then, we estimated the terrestrial carbon exchanges in each countries, and could indicated the temporal patterns of the exchanges in large carbon stock regions.

Temporal and spatial changes of rainfall and streamflow in the Upper Tekezē-Atbara river basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebremicael, Tesfay G.; Mohamed, Yasir A.; Zaag, Pieter v.; Hagos, Eyasu Y.

2017-04-01

The Upper Tekezē-Atbara river sub-basin, part of the Nile Basin, is characterized by high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and streamflow. In spite of its importance for sustainable water use and food security, the changing patterns of streamflow and its association with climate change is not well understood. This study aims to improve the understanding of the linkages between rainfall and streamflow trends and identify possible drivers of streamflow variabilities in the basin. Trend analyses and change-point detections of rainfall and streamflow were analysed using Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests, respectively, using data records for 21 rainfall and 9 streamflow stations. The nature of changes and linkages between rainfall and streamflow were carefully examined for monthly, seasonal and annual flows, as well as indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA). The trend and change-point analyses found that 19 of the tested 21 rainfall stations did not show statistically significant changes. In contrast, trend analyses on the streamflow showed both significant increasing and decreasing patterns. A decreasing trend in the dry season (October to February), short season (March to May), main rainy season (June to September) and annual totals is dominant in six out of the nine stations. Only one out of nine gauging stations experienced significant increasing flow in the dry and short rainy seasons, attributed to the construction of Tekezē hydropower dam upstream this station in 2009. Overall, streamflow trends and change-point timings were found to be inconsistent among the stations. Changes in streamflow without significant change in rainfall suggests factors other than rainfall drive the change. Most likely the observed changes in streamflow regimes could be due to changes in catchment characteristics of the basin. Further studies are needed to verify and quantify the hydrological changes shown in statistical tests by identifying the physical mechanisms behind those changes. The findings from this study are useful as a prerequisite for studying the effects of catchment management dynamics on the hydrological variabilities in the basin.

Estimating urban vegetation fraction across 25 cities in pan-Pacific using Landsat time series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Yuhao; Coops, Nicholas C.; Hermosilla, Txomin

2017-04-01

Urbanization globally is consistently reshaping the natural landscape to accommodate the growing human population. Urban vegetation plays a key role in moderating environmental impacts caused by urbanization and is critically important for local economic, social and cultural development. The differing patterns of human population growth, varying urban structures and development stages, results in highly varied spatial and temporal vegetation patterns particularly in the pan-Pacific region which has some of the fastest urbanization rates globally. Yet spatially-explicit temporal information on the amount and change of urban vegetation is rarely documented particularly in less developed nations. Remote sensing offers an exceptional data source and a unique perspective to map urban vegetation and change due to its consistency and ubiquitous nature. In this research, we assess the vegetation fractions of 25 cities across 12 pan-Pacific countries using annual gap-free Landsat surface reflectance products acquired from 1984 to 2012, using sub-pixel, spectral unmixing approaches. Vegetation change trends were then analyzed using Mann-Kendall statistics and Theil-Sen slope estimators. Unmixing results successfully mapped urban vegetation for pixels located in urban parks, forested mountainous regions, as well as agricultural land (correlation coefficient ranging from 0.66 to 0.77). The greatest vegetation loss from 1984 to 2012 was found in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Dalian in China. In contrast, cities including Vancouver (Canada) and Seattle (USA) showed stable vegetation trends through time. Using temporal trend analysis, our results suggest that it is possible to reduce noise and outliers caused by phenological changes particularly in cropland using dense new Landsat time series approaches. We conclude that simple yet effective approaches of unmixing Landsat time series data for assessing spatial and temporal changes of urban vegetation at regional scales can provide critical information for urban planners and anthropogenic studies globally.

Historical trends in salinity and substrate in central Florida Bay: A paleoecological reconstruction using modern analogue data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brewster-Wingard, G. L.; Ishman, S.E.

1999-01-01

Understanding the natural spatial and temporal variability that exists within an ecosystem is a critical component of efforts to restore systems to their natural state. Analysis of benthic foraminifers and molluscs from modern monitoring sites within Florida Bay allows us to determine what environmental parameters control spatial and temporal variability of their assemblages. Faunal assemblages associated with specific environmental parameters, including salinity and substrate, serve as proxies for an interpretation of paleoecologic data. The faunal record preserved in two shallow (< 2 m) cores in central Florida Bay (Russell Bank and Bob Allen Bank) provides a record of historical trends in environmental parameters for those sites. Analysis of these two cores has revealed two distinct patterns of salinity change at these sites: 1) a long-term trend of slightly increasing average salinity; and 2) a relatively rapid change to salinity fluctuations of greater frequency and amplitude, beginning around the turn of the century and becoming most pronounced after 1940. The degree of variability in substrate types at each locality limits interpretations of substrate trends to specific sites. A common sequence of change is present in the Russell Bank and Bob Allen Bank cores: from mixed grass and bare-sediment indicators at the bottom of the cores, to bare-sediment dwellers in the center, to a dominance of vegetative-cover indicators at the top of the cores. Changes in interpreted salinity patterns around the turn of the century are consistent with the timing of the construction of the Flagler Railroad from 1905 to 1912, and the Tamiami Trail and the canal and levee systems between 1915 and 1928. Beginning around 1940, the changes in the frequency and amplitude of salinity fluctuations may be related to changes in water management practices, meteorologic events (frequent hurricanes coupled with severe droughts in 1943 and 1944), or a combination of factors. The correspondence of these changes in Florida Bay with changes in the terrestrial Everglades suggests factors affecting the entire ecosystem are responsible for the salinity and substrate patterns seen in Florida Bay.

Data Flow Analysis and Visualization for Spatiotemporal Statistical Data without Trajectory Information.

PubMed

Kim, Seokyeon; Jeong, Seongmin; Woo, Insoo; Jang, Yun; Maciejewski, Ross; Ebert, David S

2018-03-01

Geographic visualization research has focused on a variety of techniques to represent and explore spatiotemporal data. The goal of those techniques is to enable users to explore events and interactions over space and time in order to facilitate the discovery of patterns, anomalies and relationships within the data. However, it is difficult to extract and visualize data flow patterns over time for non-directional statistical data without trajectory information. In this work, we develop a novel flow analysis technique to extract, represent, and analyze flow maps of non-directional spatiotemporal data unaccompanied by trajectory information. We estimate a continuous distribution of these events over space and time, and extract flow fields for spatial and temporal changes utilizing a gravity model. Then, we visualize the spatiotemporal patterns in the data by employing flow visualization techniques. The user is presented with temporal trends of geo-referenced discrete events on a map. As such, overall spatiotemporal data flow patterns help users analyze geo-referenced temporal events, such as disease outbreaks, crime patterns, etc. To validate our model, we discard the trajectory information in an origin-destination dataset and apply our technique to the data and compare the derived trajectories and the original. Finally, we present spatiotemporal trend analysis for statistical datasets including twitter data, maritime search and rescue events, and syndromic surveillance.

Exploring space-time structure of human mobility in urban space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, J. B.; Yuan, J.; Wang, Y.; Si, H. B.; Shan, X. M.

2011-03-01

Understanding of human mobility in urban space benefits the planning and provision of municipal facilities and services. Due to the high penetration of cell phones, mobile cellular networks provide information for urban dynamics with a large spatial extent and continuous temporal coverage in comparison with traditional approaches. The original data investigated in this paper were collected by cellular networks in a southern city of China, recording the population distribution by dividing the city into thousands of pixels. The space-time structure of urban dynamics is explored by applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to the original data, from temporal and spatial perspectives between which there is a dual relation. Based on the results of the analysis, we have discovered four underlying rules of urban dynamics: low intrinsic dimensionality, three categories of common patterns, dominance of periodic trends, and temporal stability. It implies that the space-time structure can be captured well by remarkably few temporal or spatial predictable periodic patterns, and the structure unearthed by PCA evolves stably over time. All these features play a critical role in the applications of forecasting and anomaly detection.

Large-scale estimates of gross primary production on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau based on remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, M., II; Yuan, W.; Dong, J.; Zhang, F.; Cai, W.; Li, H.

2017-12-01

Vegetation gross primary production (GPP) is an important variable for the carbon cycle on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Based on the measurements from twelve eddy covariance (EC) sites, we validated a light use efficiency model (i.e. EC-LUE) to evaluate the spatial-temporal patterns of GPP and the effect of environmental variables on QTP. The EC-LUE model explained 85.4% of the daily observed GPP variations through all of the twelve EC sites, and characterized very well the seasonal changes of GPP. Annual GPP over the entire QTP ranged from 575 to 703 Tg C, and showed a significantly increasing trend from 1982 to 2013. However, there were large spatial heterogeneities in long-term trends of GPP. Throughout the entire QTP, air temperature TA increase had a greater influence than solar radiation and PREC changes on productivity. Moreover, our results highlight the large uncertainties of previous GPP estimates due to insufficient parameterization and validations. When compared with GPP estimates of the EC-LUE model, most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) GPP products overestimate the magnitude and increasing trends of regional GPP, which potentially impact the feedback of ecosystems to regional climate changes.

[Research on monitoring land subsidence in Beijing plain area using PS-InSAR technology].

PubMed

Gu, Zhao-Qin; Gong, Hui-Li; Zhang, You-Quan; Lu, Xue-Hui; Wang, Sa; Wang, Rong; Liu, Huan-Huan

2014-07-01

In the present paper, the authors use permanent scatterers synthetic aperture radar interferometry (PS-InSAR) technique and 29 acquisitions by Envisat during 2003 to 2009 to monitor and analyze the spatial-temporal distribution and mechanism characterize of land subsidence in Beijing plain area. The results show that subsidence bowls have been bounded together in Beijing plain area, which covers Chaoyang, Changping, Shunyi and Tongzhou area, and the range of subsidence has an eastward trend. The most serious regional subsidence is mainly distributed by the quaternary depression in Beijing plain area. PS-Insar results also show a new subsidence bowl in Pinggu. What's more, the spatial and temporal distribution of deformation is controlled mainly by faults, such as Liangxiang-Shunyi fault, Huangzhuang-Gaoliying fault, and Nankou-Sunhe fault. The subsidence and level of groundwater in study area shows a good correlation, and the subsidence shows seasonal ups trend during November to March and seasonal downs trend during March to June along with changes in groundwater levels. The contribution of land subsidence is also influenced by stress-strain behavior of aquitards. The compaction of aquitards shows an elastic, plastic, viscoelastic pattern.

Contrasting runoff trends between dry and wet parts of eastern Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Wang, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Yongqiang; Chiew, Francis H S; McVicar, Tim R; Zhang, Lu; Li, Hongxia; Qin, Guanghua

2017-11-13

As the "Asian Water Tower", the Tibetan Plateau (TP) provides water resources for more than 1.4 billion people, but suffers from climatic and environmental changes, followed by the changes in water balance components. We used state-of-the-art satellite-based products to estimate spatial and temporal variations and trends in annual precipitation, evapotranspiration and total water storage change across eastern TP, which were then used to reconstruct an annual runoff variability series for 2003-2014. The basin-scale reconstructed streamflow variability matched well with gauge observations for five large rivers. Annual runoff increased strongly in dry part because of increases in precipitation, but decreased in wet part because of decreases in precipitation, aggravated by noticeable increases in evapotranspiration in the north of wet part. Although precipitation primarily governed temporal-spatial pattern of runoff, total water storage change contributed greatly to runoff variation in regions with wide-spread permanent snow/ice or permafrost. Our study indicates that the contrasting runoff trends between the dry and wet parts of eastern TP requires a change in water security strategy, and attention should be paid to the negative water resources impacts detected for southwestern part which has undergone vast glacier retreat and decreasing precipitation.

Impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C on precipitation patterns in China by regional climate model (COSMO-CLM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Hemin; Wang, Anqian; Zhai, Jianqing; Huang, Jinlong; Wang, Yanjun; Wen, Shanshan; Zeng, Xiaofan; Su, Buda

2018-05-01

Regional precipitation patterns may change in a warmer climate, thereby increasing flood and drought risks. In this paper, annual, annual maximum, intense, heavy, moderate, light, and trace precipitation are employed as indicators to assess changes in precipitation patterns under two scenarios in which the global mean temperature increases by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C relative to pre-industrial levels using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The results show that annual precipitation in China will be approximately 2.5% higher under 1.5 °C warming relative to the present-day baseline (1980-2009), although it will decrease by approximately 4.0% under an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. This trend is spatially consistent for regions with annual precipitation of 400-800 mm, which has experienced a drying trend during the past half century; thus, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may mitigate these drying conditions. The annual maximum precipitation continues to increase from present day levels to the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Relative to the baseline period, the frequency of trace and light precipitation days exhibits a negative trend, while that of moderate, heavy, and intense precipitation days has a positive trend under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. For the 2.0 °C warming world, the frequency of days is projected to decrease for all precipitation categories, although the intensity of intense precipitation increases. Spatially, a decrease in the number of precipitation days is expected to continue in central and northern China, where a drying trend has persisted over the past half century. Southeastern China, which already suffers greatly from flooding, is expected to face more heavy and intense precipitation with an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. Meanwhile, the intensity of intense precipitation is expected to increase in northern China, and the contribution of light and moderate precipitation to the annual precipitation is expected to decrease in southeastern China. Therefore, flood risk in northern China and drought risk in southern China should draw more attention for a global air temperature increase from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C.

Spatial-temporal changes of maximum and minimum temperatures in the Wei River Basin, China: Changing patterns, causes and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Saiyan; Huang, Shengzhi; Xie, Yangyang; Huang, Qiang; Leng, Guoyong; Hou, Beibei; Zhang, Ying; Wei, Xiu

2018-05-01

Due to the important role of temperature in the global climate system and energy cycles, it is important to investigate the spatial-temporal change patterns, causes and implications of annual maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures. In this study, the Cloud model were adopted to fully and accurately analyze the changing patterns of annual Tmax and Tmin from 1958 to 2008 by quantifying their mean, uniformity, and stability in the Wei River Basin (WRB), a typical arid and semi-arid region in China. Additionally, the cross wavelet analysis was applied to explore the correlations among annual Tmax and Tmin and the yearly sunspots number, Arctic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and soil moisture with an aim to determine possible causes of annual Tmax and Tmin variations. Furthermore, temperature-related impacts on vegetation cover and precipitation extremes were also examined. Results indicated that: (1) the WRB is characterized by increasing trends in annual Tmax and Tmin, with a more evident increasing trend in annual Tmin, which has a higher dispersion degree and is less uniform and stable than annual Tmax; (2) the asymmetric variations of Tmax and Tmin can be generally explained by the stronger effects of solar activity (primarily), large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, and soil moisture on annual Tmin than on annual Tmax; and (3) increasing annual Tmax and Tmin have exerted strong influences on local precipitation extremes, in terms of their duration, intensity, and frequency in the WRB. This study presents new analyses of Tmax and Tmin in the WRB, and the findings may help guide regional agricultural production and water resources management.

Urban growth patterns in major Southeast Asian cities: Toward exposure mapping and vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandapaka, Pradeep; Kamarajugedda, Shankar A.; Lo, Edmond Y. M.

2017-04-01

Southeast Asia (SEA) is undergoing rapid urbanization, with urban population percentage increasing from 32% in 1990 to 48% in 2015. It is projected that by the year 2040, urban regions in SEA account for 60% of its total population. The region is home to 600 million people, with many densely populated cities, including megacities such as Jakarta, Bangkok, and Manila. The region has more than 20,000 islands, and many cities lie on coastal low-lands and floodplains. These geographical characteristics together with the increasing population, infrastructure growth, and changing climate makes the region highly vulnerable to natural hazards. This study assessed urban growth dynamics in major (defined as population exceeding 1 million) SEA cities using remotely sensed night-time lights (NTL) data. A recently proposed brightness gradient approach was applied on 21 years (1992-2012) of NTL annual composites to derive core-urban (CU) and peri-urban (PU) regions within each city. The study also assessed the sensitivity of above extracted urban categories to different NTL thresholds. The temporal trends in CU and PU regions were quantified, and compared with trends in socio-economic indicators. The spatial expansion of CU and PU regions were found to depend on geographical constraints and socio-economic factors. Quantification of urban growth spatial-temporal patterns, as conducted here contributes towards the understanding of exposure and vulnerability of people and infrastructures to natural hazards, as well as the evolving trends for assessment under projected urbanization conditions. This will underpin better risk assessment efforts for present and future planning.

Interannual Variability and Trends of Extratropical Ozone. Part 1; Northern Hemisphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yung, Yuk L.

2008-01-01

The authors apply principal component analysis (PCA) to the extratropical total column ozone from the combined merged ozone data product and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts assimilated ozone from January 1979 to August 2002. The interannual variability (IAV) of extratropical O-3 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is characterized by four main modes. Attributable to dominant dynamical effects, these four modes account for nearly 60% of the total ozone variance in the NH. The patterns of variability are distinctly different from those derived for total O-3 in the tropics. To relate the derived patterns of O-3 to atmospheric dynamics, similar decompositions are performed for the 30 100-Wa geopotential thickness. The results reveal intimate connections between the IAV of total ozone and the atmospheric circulation. The first two leading modes are nearly zonally symmetric and represent the connections to the annular modes and the quasi-biennial oscillation. The other two modes exhibit in-quadrature, wavenumber-1 structures that, when combined, describe the displacement of the polar vortices in response to planetary waves. In the NH, the extrema of these combined modes have preferred locations that suggest fixed topographical and land-sea thermal forcing of the involved planetary waves. Similar spatial patterns and trends in extratropical column ozone are simulated by the Goddard Earth Observation System chemistryclimate model (GEOS-CCM). The decreasing O-3 trend is captured in the first mode. The largest trend occurs at the North Pole, with values similar to-1 Dobson Unit (DU) yr(-1). There is almost no trend in tropical O-3. The trends derived from PCA are confirmed using a completely independent method, empirical mode decomposition, for zonally averaged O-3 data. The O-3 trend is also captured by mode 1 in the GEOS-CCM, but the decrease is substantially larger than that in the real atmosphere.

Monitoring tropical vegetation succession with LANDSAT data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, V. B. (Principal Investigator)

1983-01-01

The shadowing problem, which is endemic to the use of LANDSAT in tropical areas, and the ability to model changes over space and through time are problems to be addressed when monitoring tropical vegetation succession. Application of a trend surface analysis model to major land cover classes in a mountainous region of the Phillipines shows that the spatial modeling of radiance values can provide a useful approach to tropical rain forest succession monitoring. Results indicate shadowing effects may be due primarily to local variations in the spectral responses. These variations can be compensated for through the decomposition of the spatial variation in both elevation and MSS data. Using the model to estimate both elevation and spectral terrain surface as a posteriori inputs in the classification process leads to improved classification accuracy for vegetation of cover of this type. Spatial patterns depicted by the MSS data reflect the measurement of responses to spatial processes acting at several scales.

Dynamic Analysis and Research on Environmental Pollution in China from 1992 to 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Fei; Yuan, Peng; Li, Huiting; Zhang, Moli

2018-01-01

The regular pattern of development of the environmental pollution events was analyzed from the perspective of statistical analysis of pollution events in recent years. The Moran, s I and spatial center-of-gravity shift curve of China, s environmental emergencies were calculated by ARCGIS software. And the method is global spatial analysis and spatial center of gravity shift. The results showed that the trend of China, s environmental pollution events from 1992 to 2014 was the first dynamic growth and then gradually reduced. Environmental pollution events showed spatial aggregation distribution in 1992-1994, 2001-2006, 2008-2014, and the rest of year was a random distribution of space. There were two stages in China, s environmental pollution events: The transition to the southwest from 1992 to 2006 and the transition to the northeast from the year of 2006 to 2014.

Spatial-temporal variations of natural suitability of human settlement environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area—A case study in Fengjie County, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jieqiong; Zhou, Tinggang; Du, Peijun; Xu, Zhigang

2018-01-01

With rapid environmental degeneration and socio-economic development, the human settlement environment (HSE) has experienced dramatic changes and attracted attention from different communities. Consequently, the spatial-temporal evaluation of natural suitability of the human settlement environment (NSHSE) has become essential for understanding the patterns and dynamics of HSE, and for coordinating sustainable development among regional populations, resources, and environments. This study aims to explore the spatialtemporal evolution of NSHSE patterns in 1997, 2005, and 2009 in Fengjie County near the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA). A spatially weighted NSHSE model was established by integrating multi-source data (e.g., census data, meteorological data, remote sensing images, DEM data, and GIS data) into one framework, where the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) linear regression model was applied to calculate the weights of indices in the NSHSE model. Results show that the trend of natural suitability has been first downward and then upward, which is evidenced by the disparity of NSHSE existing in the south, north, and central areas of Fengjie County. Results also reveal clustered NSHSE patterns for all 30 townships. Meanwhile, NSHSE has significant influence on population distribution, and 71.49% of the total population is living in moderate and high suitable districts.

Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards

PubMed Central

Cutter, Susan L.; Finch, Christina

2008-01-01

During the past four decades (1960–2000), the United States experienced major transformations in population size, development patterns, economic conditions, and social characteristics. These social, economic, and built-environment changes altered the American hazardscape in profound ways, with more people living in high-hazard areas than ever before. To improve emergency management, it is important to recognize the variability in the vulnerable populations exposed to hazards and to develop place-based emergency plans accordingly. The concept of social vulnerability identifies sensitive populations that may be less likely to respond to, cope with, and recover from a natural disaster. Social vulnerability is complex and dynamic, changing over space and through time. This paper presents empirical evidence on the spatial and temporal patterns in social vulnerability in the United States from 1960 to the present. Using counties as our study unit, we found that those components that consistently increased social vulnerability for all time periods were density (urban), race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. The spatial patterning of social vulnerability, although initially concentrated in certain geographic regions, has become more dispersed over time. The national trend shows a steady reduction in social vulnerability, but there is considerable regional variability, with many counties increasing in social vulnerability during the past five decades. PMID:18268336

Temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of water environment quality in Heze

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Qian; Zhao, Qiang; Li, Xiumei

2018-06-01

The evolution of water environment is relatively complicated. The study of its characteristics is helpful to grasp the general direction of spatial and temporal evolution of water environment in Heze city, and to carry out water resources development and water environment protection more rationally. The comprehensive pollution index method for calculation, and the observed data are handled by Excel. In order to facilitate the analysis of the basin, Arcgis is utilized to map the watershed map. In addition, for the spatial evolution, surfer12 is used to analyze the spatial evolution characteristics the spatial evolution, and to draw the pictures of spatial evolution of chemical oxygen demand and water quality evolution. The study shows that: (1) In Heze, the quality of water environment has been improved year by year from 2006 to 2013. In 2014, the water environment has deteriorated. The content of volatile phenol has increased greatly, and the evolution trend of COD is close to the trend of the comprehensive pollution index. (2) In terms of Spatial state of water environment, the water quality of Zhuzhao New River and Wanfu River is poor, and Dongyu River water quality is better. Zhuzhao New River and Wanfu River water qualityis often worse than grade V or V, and Dongyu River water quality is mostly maintained in the grade Ⅳ. Through the analysis on the spatial revolution characteristics of water quality and chemical oxygen demand(COD),as a result, water quality is poor in the northern region,and the water quality in the southern region is better in Heze. Although the water quality has changed in recent years, the overall pattern is relatively stable.

Effects of climate change on soil moisture over China from 1960-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.

2009-01-01

Soil moisture is an important variable in the climate system and it has sensitive impact on the global climate. Obviously it is one of essential components in the climate change study. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) is used to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of soil moisture across China under the climate change conditions for the period 1960-2006. Results show that the model performed better in warm season than in cold season. Mean errors (ME) are within 10% for all the months and root mean squared errors (RMSE) are within 10% except winter season. The model captured the spatial variability higher than 50% in warm seasons. Trend analysis based on the Mann-Kendall method indicated that soil moisture in most area of China is decreased especially in the northern China. The areas with significant increasing trends in soil moisture mainly locate at northwestern China and small areas in southeastern China and eastern Tibet plateau. ?? 2009 IEEE.

Evaluation of an 18-year CMAQ simulation: Seasonal variations and long-term temporal changes in sulfate and nitrate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Civerolo, Kevin; Hogrefe, Christian; Zalewsky, Eric; Hao, Winston; Sistla, Gopal; Lynn, Barry; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Kinney, Patrick L.

2010-10-01

This paper compares spatial and seasonal variations and temporal trends in modeled and measured concentrations of sulfur and nitrogen compounds in wet and dry deposition over an 18-year period (1988-2005) over a portion of the northeastern United States. Substantial emissions reduction programs occurred over this time period, including Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 which primarily resulted in large decreases in sulfur dioxide (SO 2) emissions by 1995, and nitrogen oxide (NO x) trading programs which resulted in large decreases in warm season NO x emissions by 2004. Additionally, NO x emissions from mobile sources declined more gradually over this period. The results presented here illustrate the use of both operational and dynamic model evaluation and suggest that the modeling system largely captures the seasonal and long-term changes in sulfur compounds. The modeling system generally captures the long-term trends in nitrogen compounds, but does not reproduce the average seasonal variation or spatial patterns in nitrate.

RADSS: an integration of GIS, spatial statistics, and network service for regional data mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Haitang; Bao, Shuming; Lin, Hui; Zhu, Qing

2005-10-01

Regional data mining, which aims at the discovery of knowledge about spatial patterns, clusters or association between regions, has widely applications nowadays in social science, such as sociology, economics, epidemiology, crime, and so on. Many applications in the regional or other social sciences are more concerned with the spatial relationship, rather than the precise geographical location. Based on the spatial continuity rule derived from Tobler's first law of geography: observations at two sites tend to be more similar to each other if the sites are close together than if far apart, spatial statistics, as an important means for spatial data mining, allow the users to extract the interesting and useful information like spatial pattern, spatial structure, spatial association, spatial outlier and spatial interaction, from the vast amount of spatial data or non-spatial data. Therefore, by integrating with the spatial statistical methods, the geographical information systems will become more powerful in gaining further insights into the nature of spatial structure of regional system, and help the researchers to be more careful when selecting appropriate models. However, the lack of such tools holds back the application of spatial data analysis techniques and development of new methods and models (e.g., spatio-temporal models). Herein, we make an attempt to develop such an integrated software and apply it into the complex system analysis for the Poyang Lake Basin. This paper presents a framework for integrating GIS, spatial statistics and network service in regional data mining, as well as their implementation. After discussing the spatial statistics methods involved in regional complex system analysis, we introduce RADSS (Regional Analysis and Decision Support System), our new regional data mining tool, by integrating GIS, spatial statistics and network service. RADSS includes the functions of spatial data visualization, exploratory spatial data analysis, and spatial statistics. The tool also includes some fundamental spatial and non-spatial database in regional population and environment, which can be updated by external database via CD or network. Utilizing this data mining and exploratory analytical tool, the users can easily and quickly analyse the huge mount of the interrelated regional data, and better understand the spatial patterns and trends of the regional development, so as to make a credible and scientific decision. Moreover, it can be used as an educational tool for spatial data analysis and environmental studies. In this paper, we also present a case study on Poyang Lake Basin as an application of the tool and spatial data mining in complex environmental studies. At last, several concluding remarks are discussed.

Patterns of spatial and temporal distribution of humpback whales at the southern limit of the Southeast Pacific breeding area.

PubMed

Guidino, Chiara; Llapapasca, Miguel A; Silva, Sebastian; Alcorta, Belen; Pacheco, Aldo S

2014-01-01

Understanding the patterns of spatial and temporal distribution in threshold habitats of highly migratory and endangered species is important for understanding their habitat requirements and recovery trends. Herein, we present new data about the distribution of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in neritic waters off the northern coast of Peru: an area that constitutes a transitional path from cold, upwelling waters to warm equatorial waters where the breeding habitat is located. Data was collected during four consecutive austral winter/spring seasons from 2010 to 2013, using whale-watching boats as platforms for research. A total of 1048 whales distributed between 487 groups were sighted. The spatial distribution of humpbacks resembled the characteristic segregation of whale groups according to their size/age class and social context in breeding habitats; mother and calf pairs were present in very shallow waters close to the coast, while dyads, trios or more whales were widely distributed from shallow to moderate depths over the continental shelf break. Sea surface temperatures (range: 18.2-25.9°C) in coastal waters were slightly colder than those closer to the oceanic realm, likely due to the influence of cold upwelled waters from the Humboldt Current system. Our results provide new evidence of the southward extension of the breeding region of humpback whales in the Southeast Pacific. Integrating this information with the knowledge from the rest of the breeding region and foraging grounds would enhance our current understanding of population dynamics and recovery trends of this species.

Patterns of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Humpback Whales at the Southern Limit of the Southeast Pacific Breeding Area

PubMed Central

Guidino, Chiara; Llapapasca, Miguel A.; Silva, Sebastian; Alcorta, Belen; Pacheco, Aldo S.

2014-01-01

Understanding the patterns of spatial and temporal distribution in threshold habitats of highly migratory and endangered species is important for understanding their habitat requirements and recovery trends. Herein, we present new data about the distribution of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in neritic waters off the northern coast of Peru: an area that constitutes a transitional path from cold, upwelling waters to warm equatorial waters where the breeding habitat is located. Data was collected during four consecutive austral winter/spring seasons from 2010 to 2013, using whale-watching boats as platforms for research. A total of 1048 whales distributed between 487 groups were sighted. The spatial distribution of humpbacks resembled the characteristic segregation of whale groups according to their size/age class and social context in breeding habitats; mother and calf pairs were present in very shallow waters close to the coast, while dyads, trios or more whales were widely distributed from shallow to moderate depths over the continental shelf break. Sea surface temperatures (range: 18.2–25.9°C) in coastal waters were slightly colder than those closer to the oceanic realm, likely due to the influence of cold upwelled waters from the Humboldt Current system. Our results provide new evidence of the southward extension of the breeding region of humpback whales in the Southeast Pacific. Integrating this information with the knowledge from the rest of the breeding region and foraging grounds would enhance our current understanding of population dynamics and recovery trends of this species. PMID:25391137

Recent Change of Vegetation Growth Trend in China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peng, Shushi; Chen, Anping; Xu, Liang; Cao, Chunxiang; Fang, Jingyun; Myneni, Ranga B.; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Tucker, COmpton J.; Piao, Shilong

2011-01-01

Using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, several previous studies have indicated that vegetation growth significantly increased in most areas of China during the period 1982-99. In this letter, we extended the study period to 2010. We found that at the national scale the growing season (April-October) NDVI significantly increased by 0.0007/yr from 1982 to 2010, but the increasing trend in NDVI over the last decade decreased in comparison to that of the 1982-99 period. The trends in NDVI show significant seasonal and spatial variances. The increasing trend in April and May (AM) NDVI (0.0013/yr is larger than those in June, July and August (JJA) (0.0003/yr) and September and October (SO) (0.0008/yr). This relatively small increasing trend of JJA NDVI during 1982-2010 compared with that during 1982-99 (0.0012/yr) (Piao et al 2003 J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 108 4401) implies a change in the JJA vegetation growth trend, which significantly turned from increasing (0.0039/yr) to slightly decreasing (0:0002/yr) in 1988. Regarding the spatial pattern of changes in NDVI, the growing season NDVI increased (over 0.0020/yr) from 1982 to 2010 in southern China, while its change was close to zero in northern China, as a result of a significant changing trend reversal that occurred in the 1990s and early 2000s. In northern China, the growing season NDVI significantly increased before the 1990s as a result of warming and enhanced precipitation, but decreased after the 1990s due to drought stress strengthened by warming and reduced precipitation. Our results also show that the responses of vegetation growth to climate change vary across different seasons and ecosystems.

Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends.

PubMed

Desai, A R; Wohlfahrt, G; Zeeman, M J; Katata, G; Eugster, W; Montagnani, L; Gianelle, D; Mauder, M; Schmid, H-P

2016-02-01

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies.

Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, A. R.; Wohlfahrt, G.; Zeeman, M. J.; Katata, G.; Eugster, W.; Montagnani, L.; Gianelle, D.; Mauder, M.; Schmid, H.-P.

2016-02-01

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies.

Fine-scale spatial patterns in the demersal fish and invertebrate community in a northwest Atlantic ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Anna J.; Collie, Jeremy S.; Gartland, James

2014-06-01

The abundance, biomass, diversity, and species composition of the demersal fish and invertebrate community in Rhode Island Sound and Block Island Sound, an area identified for offshore renewable energy development, were evaluated for spatial and seasonal structure. We conducted 58 otter trawls and 51 beam trawls in the spring, summer and fall of 2009-2012, and incorporated additional data from 88 otter trawls conducted by the Northeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program. We used regionally-grouped abundance, biomass, diversity, and size spectra to assess spatial patterns in the aggregate fish community, and hierarchical cluster analysis to evaluate trends in species assemblages. Our analyses revealed coherent gradients in fish community biomass, diversity and species composition extending from inshore to offshore waters, as well as patterns related to the differing bathymetry of Rhode Island and Block Island Sounds. The fish communities around Block Island and Cox's Ledge are particularly diverse, suggesting that the proximity of hard bottom habitat may be important in structuring fish communities in this area. Species assemblages in Rhode Island and Block Island Sounds are characterized by a combination of piscivores (silver hake, summer flounder, spiny dogfish), benthivores (American lobster, black sea bass, Leucoraja spp. skates, scup) and planktivores (sea scallop), and exhibit geographic patterns that are persistent from year to year, yet variable by season. Such distributions reflect the cross-shelf migration of fish and invertebrate species in the spring and fall, highlighting the importance of considering seasonal fish behavior when planning construction schedules for offshore development projects. The fine spatial scale (10 s of kms) of this research makes it especially valuable for local marine spatial planning efforts by identifying local-scale patterns in fish community structure that will enable future assessment of the ecological impacts of offshore development. As such, this knowledge of the spatial and temporal structure of the demersal fish community in Rhode Island and Block Island Sounds will help to guide the placement of offshore structures so as to preserve the ecological and economic value of the area.

Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fyke, Jeremy; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Wang, Hailong

Annually averaged precipitation in the form of snow, the dominant term of the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance, displays large spatial and temporal variability. Here we present an analysis of spatial patterns of regional Antarctic precipitation variability and their impact on integrated Antarctic surface mass balance variability simulated as part of a preindustrial 1800-year global, fully coupled Community Earth System Model simulation. Correlation and composite analyses based on this output allow for a robust exploration of Antarctic precipitation variability. We identify statistically significant relationships between precipitation patterns across Antarctica that are corroborated by climate reanalyses, regional modeling and icemore » core records. These patterns are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport, which itself is characterized by decadal- to centennial-scale oscillations around the long-term mean. We suggest that this heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation variability has a dampening effect on overall Antarctic surface mass balance variability, with implications for regulation of Antarctic-sourced sea level variability, detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends and identification of Antarctic mass loss accelerations.« less

Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability

DOE PAGES

Fyke, Jeremy; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Wang, Hailong

2017-11-15

Annually averaged precipitation in the form of snow, the dominant term of the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance, displays large spatial and temporal variability. Here we present an analysis of spatial patterns of regional Antarctic precipitation variability and their impact on integrated Antarctic surface mass balance variability simulated as part of a preindustrial 1800-year global, fully coupled Community Earth System Model simulation. Correlation and composite analyses based on this output allow for a robust exploration of Antarctic precipitation variability. We identify statistically significant relationships between precipitation patterns across Antarctica that are corroborated by climate reanalyses, regional modeling and icemore » core records. These patterns are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport, which itself is characterized by decadal- to centennial-scale oscillations around the long-term mean. We suggest that this heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation variability has a dampening effect on overall Antarctic surface mass balance variability, with implications for regulation of Antarctic-sourced sea level variability, detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends and identification of Antarctic mass loss accelerations.« less

Free-standing carbon nanotube composite sensing skin for distributed strain sensing in structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burton, Andrew R.; Minegishi, Kaede; Kurata, Masahiro; Lynch, Jerome P.

2014-04-01

The technical challenges of managing the health of critical infrastructure systems necessitate greater structural sensing capabilities. Among these needs is the ability for quantitative, spatial damage detection on critical structural components. Advances in material science have now opened the door for novel and cost-effective spatial sensing solutions specially tailored for damage detection in structures. However, challenges remain before spatial damage detection can be realized. Some of the technical challenges include sensor installations and extensive signal processing requirements. This work addresses these challenges by developing a patterned carbon nanotube composite thin film sensor whose pattern has been optimized for measuring the spatial distribution of strain. The carbon nanotube-polymer nanocomposite sensing material is fabricated on a flexible polyimide substrate using a layer-by-layer deposition process. The thin film sensors are then patterned into sensing elements using optical lithography processes common to microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) technologies. The sensor array is designed as a series of sensing elements with varying width to provide insight on the limitations of such patterning and implications of pattern geometry on sensing signals. Once fabrication is complete, the substrate and attached sensor are epoxy bonded to a poly vinyl composite (PVC) bar that is then tested with a uniaxial, cyclic load pattern and mechanical response is characterized. The fabrication processes are then utilized on a larger-scale to develop and instrument a component-specific sensing skin in order to observe the strain distribution on the web of a steel beam. The instrumented beam is part of a larger steel beam-column connection with a concrete slab in composite action. The beam-column subassembly is laterally loaded and strain trends in the web are observed using the carbon nanotube composite sensing skin. The results are discussed in the context of understanding the properties of the thin film sensor and how it may be advanced toward structural sensing applications.

Quasistationary areas of NDVI trend dynamics is a powerful research tool for studying spatial patterns of land vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shevyrnogov, Anatoly; Larko, Aleksandr

The most important task for humankind is to study and understand global processes on Earth. Large factual material on the dynamics of the optical spectral characteristics of the land surface has been accumulated in recent decades. This has been only made possible due to the use of satellite information. The development of satellite measurement technologies and new methods for pre-processing and interpretation of satellite data allowed the research adequate to the scale of the Earth. This adequacy includes the compliance of scale terrestrial objects to the scale of satellite measurements. Research is not limited by any latitude or longitude of the objects studied. The second most important quality is the adequacy of the technologies used to velocities of processes on Earth. This is enabled by long-term continuous satellite measurements at almost all latitudes. Effectiveness of this approach to the study of natural systems has been shown by the authors in ASR publications (AP Shevyrnogov, GS Vysotskaya, JI Gitelson, Quasistationary areas of chlorophyll concentration in the world ocean as observed satellite data Advances in Space Research, Volume 18, Issue 7, Pages 129-132, 1996), which reported a method for determining the ocean surface quasistationary zones. This approach allowed us to identify different types of phytopigment dynamics and the hydrological structure of the ocean. We proposed a similar approach for the study of land vegetation. In some aspects, it is similar to the previously published approach, despite the different nature of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. The results are based on the processing of satellite data from 1981 to 2006. Dynamics is the most interesting and important parameter of ecosystems, especially their trends. Therefore, it has been chosen for the analysis of spatial patterns of plant biota. The first results showed great heterogeneity of variances in nonlinear trends of the study areas of the Earth's surface. They corresponded to different natural systems. Various scales of temporal and spatial windows highlight different features of land vegetation. Methods for normalization of the initial information are also effective for highlighting the features of the spatial structure of vegetation. Thus, we have a powerful tool to analyze the spatial distribution and dynamics of terrestrial vegetation based on satellite data. This approach provides a great opportunity to get fundamental knowledge on the functioning of the biosphere. This is global warming, shifts in permafrost boundaries, global gas exchange, etc. It can be used for practical applications in various fields of human activity: forestry, environmental protection, agriculture, etc. We show the illustration of this method: the global maps of land surface dynamics of trends with different parameters of data processing.

Streams as Entanglement of Nature and Culture: European Upper Paleolithic River Systems and Their Role as Features of Spatial Organization.

PubMed

Hussain, Shumon T; Floss, Harald

2016-01-01

Large river valleys have long been seen as important factors to shape the mobility, communication, and exchange of Pleistocene hunter-gatherers. However, rivers have been debated as either natural entities people adapt and react to or as cultural and meaningful entities people experience and interpret in different ways. Here, we attempt to integrate both perspectives. Building on theoretical work from various disciplines, we discuss the relationship between biophysical river properties and sociocultural river semantics and suggest that understanding a river's persona is central to evaluating its role in spatial organization. By reviewing the literature and analyzing European Upper Paleolithic site distribution and raw material transfer patterns in relation to river catchments, we show that the role of prominent rivers varies considerably over time. Both ecological and cultural factors are crucial to explaining these patterns. Whereas the Earlier Upper Paleolithic record displays a general tendency toward conceiving rivers as mobility guidelines, the spatial consolidation process after the colonization of the European mainland is paralleled by a trend of conceptualizing river regimes as frontiers, separating archaeological entities, regional groups, or local networks. The Late Upper Paleolithic Magdalenian, however, is characterized again by a role of rivers as mobility and communication vectors. Tracing changing patterns in the role of certain river regimes through time thus contributes to our growing knowledge of human spatial behavior and helps to improve our understanding of dynamic and mutually informed human-environment interactions in the Paleolithic.

Analysis of satellite precipitation over East Africa during last decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cattani, Elsa; Wenhaji Ndomeni, Claudine; Merino, Andrés; Levizzani, Vincenzo

2016-04-01

Daily accumulated precipitation time series from satellite retrieval algorithms (e.g., ARC2 and TAMSAT) are exploited to extract the spatial and temporal variability of East Africa (EA - 5°S-20°N, 28°E-52°E) precipitation during last decades (1983-2013). The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is applied to precipitation time series to investigate the spatial and temporal variability in particular for October-November-December referred to as the short rain season. Moreover, the connection among EA's precipitation, sea surface temperature, and soil moisture is analyzed through the correlation with the dominant EOF modes of variability. Preliminary results concern the first two EOF's modes for the ARC2 data set. EOF1 is characterized by an inter-annual variability and a positive correlation between precipitation and El Niño, positive Indian Ocean Dipole mode, and soil moisture, while EOF2 shows a dipole structure of spatial variability associated with a longer scale temporal variability. This second dominant mode is mostly linked to sea surface temperature variations in the North Atlantic Ocean. Further analyses are carried out by computing the time series of the joint CCI/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI, http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/index.shtml), i.e. RX1day, RX5day, CDD, CDD, CWD, SDII, PRCPTOT, R10, R20. The purpose is to identify the occurrenes of extreme events (droughts and floods) and extract precipitation temporal variation by trend analysis (Mann-Kendall technique). Results for the ARC2 data set demonstrate the existence of a dipole spatial pattern in the linear trend of the time series of PRCPTOT (annual precipitation considering days with a rain rate > 1 mm) and SDII (average precipitation on wet days over a year). A negative trend is mainly present over West Ethiopia and Sudan, whereas a positive trend is exhibited over East Ethiopia and Somalia. CDD (maximum number of consecutive dry days) and CWD (maximum number of consecutive wet days) time series do not exhibit a similar behavior and trends are generally weaker with a lower significance level with respect to PRCPTOT and SDII.

Spatial and temporal stability of temperature in the first-level basins of China during 1951-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Yuting; Li, Peng; Xu, Guoce; Li, Zhanbin; Cheng, Shengdong; Wang, Bin; Zhao, Binhua

2018-05-01

In recent years, global warming has attracted great attention around the world. Temperature change is not only involved in global climate change but also closely linked to economic development, the ecological environment, and agricultural production. In this study, based on temperature data recorded by 756 meteorological stations in China during 1951-2013, the spatial and temporal stability characteristics of annual temperature in China and its first-level basins were investigated using the rank correlation coefficient method, the relative difference method, rescaled range (R/S) analysis, and wavelet transforms. The results showed that during 1951-2013, the spatial variation of annual temperature belonged to moderate variability in the national level. Among the first-level basins, the largest variation coefficient was 114% in the Songhuajiang basin and the smallest variation coefficient was 10% in the Huaihe basin. During 1951-2013, the spatial distribution pattern of annual temperature presented extremely strong spatial and temporal stability characteristics in the national level. The variation range of Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was 0.97-0.99, and the spatial distribution pattern of annual temperature showed an increasing trend. In the national level, the Liaohe basin, the rivers in the southwestern region, the Haihe basin, the Yellow River basin, the Yangtze River basin, the Huaihe basin, the rivers in the southeastern region, and the Pearl River basin all had representative meteorological stations for annual temperature. In the Songhuajiang basin and the rivers in the northwestern region, there was no representative meteorological station. R/S analysis, the Mann-Kendall test, and the Morlet wavelet analysis of annual temperature showed that the best representative meteorological station could reflect the variation trend and the main periodic changes of annual temperature in the region. Therefore, strong temporal stability characteristics exist for annual temperature in China and its first-level basins. It was therefore feasible to estimate the annual average temperature by the annual temperature recorded by the representative meteorological station in the region. Moreover, it was of great significance to assess average temperature changes quickly and forecast future change tendencies in the region.

Spatial analysis and characteristics of pig farming in Thailand.

PubMed

Thanapongtharm, Weerapong; Linard, Catherine; Chinson, Pornpiroon; Kasemsuwan, Suwicha; Visser, Marjolein; Gaughan, Andrea E; Epprech, Michael; Robinson, Timothy P; Gilbert, Marius

2016-10-06

In Thailand, pig production intensified significantly during the last decade, with many economic, epidemiological and environmental implications. Strategies toward more sustainable future developments are currently investigated, and these could be informed by a detailed assessment of the main trends in the pig sector, and on how different production systems are geographically distributed. This study had two main objectives. First, we aimed to describe the main trends and geographic patterns of pig production systems in Thailand in terms of pig type (native, breeding, and fattening pigs), farm scales (smallholder and large-scale farming systems) and type of farming systems (farrow-to-finish, nursery, and finishing systems) based on a very detailed 2010 census. Second, we aimed to study the statistical spatial association between these different types of pig farming distribution and a set of spatial variables describing access to feed and markets. Over the last decades, pig population gradually increased, with a continuously increasing number of pigs per holder, suggesting a continuing intensification of the sector. The different pig-production systems showed very contrasted geographical distributions. The spatial distribution of large-scale pig farms corresponds with that of commercial pig breeds, and spatial analysis conducted using Random Forest distribution models indicated that these were concentrated in lowland urban or peri-urban areas, close to means of transportation, facilitating supply to major markets such as provincial capitals and the Bangkok Metropolitan region. Conversely the smallholders were distributed throughout the country, with higher densities located in highland, remote, and rural areas, where they supply local rural markets. A limitation of the study was that pig farming systems were defined from the number of animals per farm, resulting in their possible misclassification, but this should have a limited impact on the main patterns revealed by the analysis. The very contrasted distribution of different pig production systems present opportunities for future regionalization of pig production. More specifically, the detailed geographical analysis of the different production systems will be used to spatially-inform planning decisions for pig farming accounting for the specific health, environment and economical implications of the different pig production systems.

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Does seasonality drive spatial patterns in demography? Variation in survival in African reed warblers Acrocephalus baeticatus across southern Africa does not reflect global patterns

PubMed Central

Jansen, Dorine YM; Abadi, Fitsum; Harebottle, Doug; Altwegg, Res

2014-01-01

Among birds, northern temperate species generally have larger clutches, shorter development periods and lower adult survival than similarly-sized southern and tropical species. Even though this global pattern is well accepted, the driving mechanism is still not fully understood. The main theories are founded on the differing environmental seasonality of these zones (higher seasonality in the North). These patterns arise in cross-species comparisons, but we hypothesized that the same patterns should arise among populations within a species if different types of seasonality select for different life histories. Few studies have examined this. We estimated survival of an azonal habitat specialist, the African reed warbler, across the environmentally diverse African subcontinent, and related survival to latitude and to the seasonality of the different environments of their breeding habitats. Data (1998–2010) collected through a public ringing scheme were analyzed with hierarchical capture-mark-recapture models to determine resident adult survival and its spatial variance across sixteen vegetation units spread across four biomes. The models were defined as state-space multi-state models to account for transience and implemented in a Bayesian framework. We did not find a latitudinal trend in survival or a clear link between seasonality and survival. Spatial variation in survival was substantial across the sixteen sites (spatial standard deviation of the logit mean survival: 0.70, 95% credible interval (CRI): 0.33–1.27). Mean site survival ranged from 0.49 (95% CRI: 0.18–0.80) to 0.83 (95% CRI: 0.62–0.97) with an overall mean of 0.67 (95% CRI: 0.47–0.85). A hierarchical modeling approach enabled us to estimate spatial variation in survival of the African reed warbler across the African subcontinent from sparse data. Although we could not confirm the global pattern of higher survival in less seasonal environments, our findings from a poorly studied region contribute to the study of life-history strategies. PMID:24772268

Spatial distribution and temporal trends of rainfall erosivity in mainland China for 1951-2010

Treesearch

Wei Qin; Qiankun Guo; Changqing Zuo; Zhijie Shan; Liang Ma; Ge Sun

2016-01-01

Rainfall erosivity is an important factor for estimating soil erosion rates. Understanding the spatial distributionand temporal trends of rainfall erosivity is especially critical for soil erosion risk assessment and soil conservationplanning in mainland China. However, reports on the spatial distribution and temporal trends of rainfall...

[Spatio-temporal changes of nitrogen balance in 1980-2005 for agricultural land in Three Gorges Reservoir Area].

PubMed

Xu, Xi-bao; Yang, Gui-shan; Li, Heng-peng

2009-08-15

Based on the long-term agricultural statistics data at the county scale, the estimation of nitrogen balance from 1980 to 2005 for agricultural land in Three Gorges Reservoir Area was made by the OECD soil surface nitrogen balance model with some suitable modification. The spatio-temporal changes of nitrogen balance and its drivers were analyzed. The results showed that the total inputs and total surplus of nitrogen from 1980 to 2005 presented increasing trends continuously, from 23.4 x 10(4) t and 14.4 x 104 t to 45.6 x 10(4) t and 30 x 10(4) t respectively. The total output of nitrogen in 1980-1995 was at the increasing trend, from 9.0 x 10(4) t to 16.7 x 10(4) t, while that of 1996-2005 was keeping steady. The average unit surplus of nitrogen in 1980-1998 was also at the increasing trend, from 133.4 kg/hm2 to 310.3 kg/hm(2); and the trend inclined to be steady after 1998, while the spatial differential pattern toned up. The great spatial changes for nitrogen surplus from 1980 to 2005, mainly centralized at the head and the middle of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, similar to the spatial distribution of the resettlement. Fertilizer, manure and biological fixation were the main contributors of nitrogen input sources, accumulatively totaled for above 90%. Nitrogen balance changes were mainly influenced by the macro-environment of fertilizer utilization before 1995, while which were influenced by the large amounts of the resettlement for Three Gorges Project after 1995. However, how much the effects of the resettlement on nitrogen balance need to be further explored. Developing sideline, agricultural structure transition or ecological resettlement should be considered to control nitrogen emission.

Climatology and trends of summer high temperature days in India during 1969-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaswal, A. K.; Rao, P. C. S.; Singh, Virendra

2015-02-01

Based on the daily maximum air temperature data from 176 stations in India from 1969 to 2013, the climatological distribution of the number of days with high temperature (HT) defined as days with maximum temperature higher than 37°C during summer season (March-June) are studied. With a focus on the regional variability and long-term trends, the impacts of HT days are examined by dividing the country into six geographical regions (North, West, North-central, East, South-central and South). Although the long-term (1969-2013) climatological numbers of HT days display well-defined spatial patterns, there is clear change in climatological mean and coefficient of variation of HT days in a recent period (1991-2013). The long period trends indicate increase in summer HT days by 3%, 5%, and 18% in north, west, and south regions, respectively and decrease by 4% and 9% in north-central and east regions respectively. However, spatial variations in HT days exist across different regions in the country. The data analysis shows that 2010 was the warmest summer year and 2013 was the coolest summer year in India. Comparison of spatial distributions of trends in HT days for 1969-1990 and 1991-2013 periods reveal that there is an abrupt increase in the number of HT days over north, west and north-central regions of India probably from mid 1990s. A steep increase in summer HT days in highly populated cities of Mumbai, New Delhi, Chennai, Jaipur, and Visakhapatnam is noticed during the recent period of 1991-2013. The summer HT days over southern India indicate significant positive correlation with Nino 3.4 index for three months' running mean (December-January-February, January-March, February-April, March-May and April-June).

Combined analysis of roadside and off-road breeding bird survey data to assess population change in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Handel, Colleen M.; Sauer, John

2017-01-01

Management interest in North American birds has increasingly focused on species that breed in Alaska, USA, and Canada, where habitats are changing rapidly in response to climatic and anthropogenic factors. We used a series of hierarchical models to estimate rates of population change in 2 forested Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) in Alaska based on data from the roadside North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the Alaska Landbird Monitoring Survey, which samples off-road areas on public resource lands. We estimated long-term (1993–2015) population trends for 84 bird species from the BBS and short-term (2003–2015) trends for 31 species from both surveys. Among the 84 species with long-term estimates, 11 had positive trends and 17 had negative trends in 1 or both BCRs; negative trends were primarily found among aerial insectivores and wetland-associated species, confirming range-wide negative continental trends for many of these birds. Three species with negative trends in the contiguous United States and southern Canada had positive trends in Alaska, suggesting different population dynamics at the northern edges of their ranges. Regional population trends within Alaska differed for several species, particularly those represented by different subspecies in the 2 BCRs, which are separated by rugged, glaciated mountain ranges. Analysis of the roadside and off-road data in a joint hierarchical model with shared parameters resulted in improved precision of trend estimates and suggested a roadside-related difference in underlying population trends for several species, particularly within the Northwestern Interior Forest BCR. The combined analysis highlights the importance of considering population structure, physiographic barriers, and spatial heterogeneity in habitat change when assessing patterns of population change across a landscape as broad as Alaska. Combined analysis of roadside and off-road survey data in a hierarchical framework may be particularly useful for evaluating patterns of population change in relatively undeveloped regions with sparse roadside BBS coverage.

Influences of different land use spatial control schemes on farmland conversion and urban development.

PubMed

Zhou, Min; Tan, Shukui; Zhang, Lu

2015-01-01

Land use planning is always officially implemented as an effective tool to control urban development and protect farmland. However, its impact on land use change remains untested in China. Using a case study of Hang-Jia-Hu region, the main objective of this paper was to investigate the influence of different land use spatial control schemes on farmland conversion and urban development. Comparisons of farmland conversion and urban development patterns between the urban planning area and the non-urban planning area were characterized by using remote sensing, geographical information systems, and landscape metrics. Results indicated that farmland conversion in the non-urban planning area was more intensive than that in the urban planning area, and that farmland patterns was more fragmented in the non-urban planning area. Built-up land patterns in the non-urban planning area showed a trend of aggregation, while those in the urban planning area had a dual trend of fragmentation and aggregation. Existing built-up areas had less influence on built-up land sprawl in the non-urban planning area than that in the urban planning area. Built-up land sprawl in the form of continuous development in the urban planning area led to farmland conversion; and in the non-urban planning area, built-up land sprawl in the form of leapfrogging development resulted in farmland areal declines and fragmentation. We argued that it is a basic requirement to integrate land use plans in urban and non-urban planning areas for land use planning and management.

Influences of Different Land Use Spatial Control Schemes on Farmland Conversion and Urban Development

PubMed Central

Zhou, Min; Tan, Shukui; Zhang, Lu

2015-01-01

Land use planning is always officially implemented as an effective tool to control urban development and protect farmland. However, its impact on land use change remains untested in China. Using a case study of Hang-Jia-Hu region, the main objective of this paper was to investigate the influence of different land use spatial control schemes on farmland conversion and urban development. Comparisons of farmland conversion and urban development patterns between the urban planning area and the non-urban planning area were characterized by using remote sensing, geographical information systems, and landscape metrics. Results indicated that farmland conversion in the non-urban planning area was more intensive than that in the urban planning area, and that farmland patterns was more fragmented in the non-urban planning area. Built-up land patterns in the non-urban planning area showed a trend of aggregation, while those in the urban planning area had a dual trend of fragmentation and aggregation. Existing built-up areas had less influence on built-up land sprawl in the non-urban planning area than that in the urban planning area. Built-up land sprawl in the form of continuous development in the urban planning area led to farmland conversion; and in the non-urban planning area, built-up land sprawl in the form of leapfrogging development resulted in farmland areal declines and fragmentation. We argued that it is a basic requirement to integrate land use plans in urban and non-urban planning areas for land use planning and management. PMID:25915897

Spatial Trends and Variability of Vertical Accretion Rates in the Barataria Basin, Louisiana, U.S.A. using Pb-210 and Cs-137 radiochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrull, S.; Wilson, C.; Snedden, G.; Bentley, S. J.

2017-12-01

Barataria Basin on the south Louisiana coast is experiencing some of the greatest amounts of coastal land loss in the United States with rates as high as 23.1 km2 lost per year. In an attempt to help slow or reverse land loss, millions of dollars are being spent to create sediment diversions to increase the amount of available inorganic sediments to these vulnerable coastal marsh areas. A better understanding of the spatial trends and patterns of background accretion rates needs to be established in order to effectively implement such structures. Core samples from 25 Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) sites spanning inland freshwater to coastal saline areas within the basin were extracted, and using vertical accretion rates from Cs-137 & Pb-210 radionuclide detection, mineral versus organic sediment composition, grain size distribution, and spatial trends of bulk densities, the controls on the accretion rates of the marsh soils will be constrained. Initial rates show a range from 0.31 cm/year to 1.02 cm/year with the average being 0.79 cm/year. Preliminary results suggest that location and proximity to an inorganic sediment source (i.e. river/tributary or open water) have a stronger influence on vertical accretion rates than marsh classification and salinity, with no clear relationship between vertical accretion and salinity. Down-core sediment composition and bulk density analyses observed at a number of the sites likely suggest episodic sedimentation and show different vertical accretion rates through time. Frequency and length of inundation (i.e. hydroperiod), and land/marsh classification from the CRMS data set will be further investigated to constrain the spatial variability in vertical accretion for the basin.

Analysis of a Spatial Point Pattern: Examining the Damage to Pavement and Pipes in Santa Clara Valley Resulting from the Loma Prieta Earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phelps, G.A.

2008-01-01

This report describes some simple spatial statistical methods to explore the relationships of scattered points to geologic or other features, represented by points, lines, or areas. It also describes statistical methods to search for linear trends and clustered patterns within the scattered point data. Scattered points are often contained within irregularly shaped study areas, necessitating the use of methods largely unexplored in the point pattern literature. The methods take advantage of the power of modern GIS toolkits to numerically approximate the null hypothesis of randomly located data within an irregular study area. Observed distributions can then be compared with the null distribution of a set of randomly located points. The methods are non-parametric and are applicable to irregularly shaped study areas. Patterns within the point data are examined by comparing the distribution of the orientation of the set of vectors defined by each pair of points within the data with the equivalent distribution for a random set of points within the study area. A simple model is proposed to describe linear or clustered structure within scattered data. A scattered data set of damage to pavement and pipes, recorded after the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, is used as an example to demonstrate the analytical techniques. The damage is found to be preferentially located nearer a set of mapped lineaments than randomly scattered damage, suggesting range-front faulting along the base of the Santa Cruz Mountains is related to both the earthquake damage and the mapped lineaments. The damage also exhibit two non-random patterns: a single cluster of damage centered in the town of Los Gatos, California, and a linear alignment of damage along the range front of the Santa Cruz Mountains, California. The linear alignment of damage is strongest between 45? and 50? northwest. This agrees well with the mean trend of the mapped lineaments, measured as 49? northwest.

Changes of reference evapotranspiration in the Haihe River Basin: Present observations and future projection from climatic variables through multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Wanqiu; Wang, Weiguang; Shao, Quanxi; Peng, Shizhang; Yu, Zhongbo; Yong, Bin; Taylor, John

2014-04-01

As the most excellent indicator for hydrological cycle and a central link to water-balance calculations, the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is of increasing importance in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources systems since the climate change has been becoming more pronounced. In this study, we conduct an investigation on the spatial and temporal changes in ET0 of the Haihe River Basin in present and future stages. The ET0 in the past five decades (1961-2010) are calculated by the Penman-Monteith method with historical climatic variables in 40 sites while the ET0 estimation for the future period of 2011-2099 is based on the related climatic variables projected by Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) multimodel ensemble projections in Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) using the Bayesian Model Average (BMA) approach. Results can be summarized for the present and future as follows. (1) No coherent spatial patterns in ET0 changes are seen in the whole basin. Half of the stations distributed mainly in the eastern and southeastern plain regions present significant negative trends, while only 3 stations in the western mountainous and plateau basin show significant positive trends. Radiation is mainly responsible for the ET0 change in the southern and eastern basin, whereas relative humidity and wind speed are the leading factors in the eastern coastal and north parts. (2) BMA ensemble method is competent to produce lower bias in comparison with other common methods in this basin. Future spatiotemporal ET0 pattern analysis by means of the BMA method based on the ensembles of four CGCMs suggested that although the spatial patterns under three scenarios are different in the forthcoming two decades, generally increasing trends can be found in the 21st century, which is mainly attributed to the significant increasing temperature. In addition, the implication of future ET0 change in agriculture and local water resources is discussed as an extension of this work. The results can provide beneficial reference and comprehensive information to understand the impact of climate change on the future water balance and improve the regional strategy for water resource and eco-environment management in the Haihe River Basin.

Age-associated patterns in gray matter volume, cerebral perfusion and BOLD oscillations in children and adolescents.

PubMed

Bray, Signe

2017-05-01

Healthy brain development involves changes in brain structure and function that are believed to support cognitive maturation. However, understanding how structural changes such as grey matter thinning relate to functional changes is challenging. To gain insight into structure-function relationships in development, the present study took a data driven approach to define age-related patterns of variation in gray matter volume (GMV), cerebral blood flow (CBF) and blood-oxygen level dependent (BOLD) signal variation (fractional amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations; fALFF) in 59 healthy children aged 7-18 years, and examined relationships between modalities. Principal components analysis (PCA) was applied to each modality in parallel, and participant scores for the top components were assessed for age associations. We found that decompositions of CBF, GMV and fALFF all included components for which scores were significantly associated with age. The dominant patterns in GMV and CBF showed significant (GMV) or trend level (CBF) associations with age and a strong spatial overlap, driven by increased signal intensity in default mode network (DMN) regions. GMV, CBF and fALFF additionally showed components accounting for 3-5% of variability with significant age associations. However, these patterns were relatively spatially independent, with small-to-moderate overlap between modalities. Independence of age effects was further demonstrated by correlating individual subject maps between modalities: CBF was significantly less correlated with GMV and fALFF in older children relative to younger. These spatially independent effects of age suggest that the parallel decline observed in global GMV and CBF may not reflect spatially synchronized processes. Hum Brain Mapp 38:2398-2407, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The spatial epidemiology of trauma: the potential of geographic information science to organize data and reveal patterns of injury and services

PubMed Central

Schuurman, Nadine; Hameed, S. Morad; Fiedler, Robert; Bell, Nathaniel; Simons, Richard K.

2008-01-01

Despite important advances in the prevention and treatment of trauma, preventable injuries continue to impact the lives of millions of people. Motor vehicle collisions and violence claim close to 3 million lives each year worldwide. Public health agencies have promoted the need for systematic and ongoing surveillance as a foundation for successful injury control. Surveillance has been used to quantify the incidence of injury for the prioritization of further research, monitor trends over time, identify new injury patterns, and plan and evaluate prevention and intervention efforts. Advances in capability to handle spatial data and substantial increases in computing power have positioned geographic information science (GIS) as a potentially important tool for health surveillance and the spatial organization of health care, and for informing prevention and acute care interventions. Two themes emerge in the trauma literature with respect to GIS theory and techniques: identifying determinants associated with the risk of trauma to guide injury prevention efforts and evaluating the spatial organization and accessibility of acute trauma care systems. We review the current literature on trauma and GIS research and provide examples of the importance of accounting for spatial scale when using spatial analysis for surveillance. The examples illustrate the effect of scale on incident analysis, the geographic variation of major injury across British Columbia's health service delivery areas (HSDAs) and the rates of variation of injury within individual HSDAs. PMID:18841227

[Spatial and differential income pattern of households of adolescents and young adults who are victims of maxillofacial injuries resulting from firearm aggression].

PubMed

Silva, Carlos José de Paula; Paiva, Paula Cristina Pelli; Paula, Liliam Pacheco Pinto de; Fonseca, Jussara de Fátima Barbosa; Silvestrini, Rafaella Almeida; Naves, Marcelo Drummond; Moura, Ana Clara Mourão; Ferreira, Efigênia Ferreira E

2018-04-01

The study investigated the spatial pattern of cases of maxillofacial injury resulting from firearm aggression among teenagers and young adults and analyzed the comparison of income differentials in these areas based on the residence of the victims. This is a cross-sectional study with data from victims attended in three hospitals in Belo Horizonte, State of Minas Gerais, from January 2008 to December 2010. The addresses of the victims were georeferenced by geocoding. Randomness and point density trends were analyzed using Ripley's K function and Kernel maps. The spatial interaction between the homes of adolescents and young adults was verified through the K12 function. Records of 218 cases of assault with a male predominance (89.9%) and young adults (70.6%) were found. Household clusters were distributed on an aggregate basis in the urban space with a confidence level of 99% and similar spatial aggregation levels. The hotspots converged on 7 shantytowns or neighboring regions with higher income population revealing spread of events. Hotspots focused on slums with a history of crimes linked to drug trafficking. The incorporation of space in the dynamics of events showed that the economic condition in isolation did not limit victimization.

Spatial and temporal variations in lagoon and coastal processes of the southern Brazilian coast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dejesusparada, N. (Principal Investigator); Herz, R.

1980-01-01

From a collection of information gathered during a long period, through the orbital platforms SKYLAB and LANDSAT, it was possible to establish a method for the systematic study of the dynamical regime of lagoon and marine surface waters, on coastal plain of Rio Grande do Sul. The series of multispectral images analyzed by visual and automatic techniques put in evidence spatial and temporal variations reflected in the optical properties of waters, which carry different loads of materials in suspension. The identified patterns offer a synoptic picture of phenomena of great amplitude, from which trends of circulation can be inferred, correlating the atmospheric and hydrologic variables simultaneously to the overflight of orbital vehicles.

Understanding Spatiotemporal Patterns of Biking Behavior by Analyzing Massive Bike Sharing Data in Chicago

PubMed Central

Zhou, Xiaolu

2015-01-01

The growing number of bike sharing systems (BSS) in many cities largely facilitates biking for transportation and recreation. Most recent bike sharing systems produce time and location specific data, which enables the study of travel behavior and mobility of each individual. However, despite a rapid growth of interest, studies on massive bike sharing data and the underneath travel pattern are still limited. Few studies have explored and visualized spatiotemporal patterns of bike sharing behavior using flow clustering, nor examined the station functional profiles based on over-demand patterns. This study investigated the spatiotemporal biking pattern in Chicago by analyzing massive BSS data from July to December in 2013 and 2014. The BSS in Chicago gained more popularity. About 15.9% more people subscribed to this service. Specifically, we constructed bike flow similarity graph and used fastgreedy algorithm to detect spatial communities of biking flows. By using the proposed methods, we discovered unique travel patterns on weekdays and weekends as well as different travel trends for customers and subscribers from the noisy massive amount data. In addition, we also examined the temporal demands for bikes and docks using hierarchical clustering method. Results demonstrated the modeled over-demand patterns in Chicago. This study contributes to offer better knowledge of biking flow patterns, which was difficult to obtain using traditional methods. Given the trend of increasing popularity of the BSS and data openness in different cities, methods used in this study can extend to examine the biking patterns and BSS functionality in different cities. PMID:26445357

Understanding Spatiotemporal Patterns of Biking Behavior by Analyzing Massive Bike Sharing Data in Chicago.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiaolu

2015-01-01

The growing number of bike sharing systems (BSS) in many cities largely facilitates biking for transportation and recreation. Most recent bike sharing systems produce time and location specific data, which enables the study of travel behavior and mobility of each individual. However, despite a rapid growth of interest, studies on massive bike sharing data and the underneath travel pattern are still limited. Few studies have explored and visualized spatiotemporal patterns of bike sharing behavior using flow clustering, nor examined the station functional profiles based on over-demand patterns. This study investigated the spatiotemporal biking pattern in Chicago by analyzing massive BSS data from July to December in 2013 and 2014. The BSS in Chicago gained more popularity. About 15.9% more people subscribed to this service. Specifically, we constructed bike flow similarity graph and used fastgreedy algorithm to detect spatial communities of biking flows. By using the proposed methods, we discovered unique travel patterns on weekdays and weekends as well as different travel trends for customers and subscribers from the noisy massive amount data. In addition, we also examined the temporal demands for bikes and docks using hierarchical clustering method. Results demonstrated the modeled over-demand patterns in Chicago. This study contributes to offer better knowledge of biking flow patterns, which was difficult to obtain using traditional methods. Given the trend of increasing popularity of the BSS and data openness in different cities, methods used in this study can extend to examine the biking patterns and BSS functionality in different cities.

75 years of dryland science: Trends and gaps in arid ecology literature

PubMed Central

Dickman, Chris R.; Wardle, Glenda M.

2017-01-01

Growth in the publication of scientific articles is occurring at an exponential rate, prompting a growing need to synthesise information in a timely manner to combat urgent environmental problems and guide future research. Here, we undertake a topic analysis of dryland literature over the last 75 years (8218 articles) to identify areas in arid ecology that are well studied and topics that are emerging. Four topics—wetlands, mammal ecology, litter decomposition and spatial modelling, were identified as ‘hot topics’ that showed higher than average growth in publications from 1940 to 2015. Five topics—remote sensing, climate, habitat and spatial, agriculture and soils-microbes, were identified as ‘cold topics’, with lower than average growth over the survey period, but higher than average numbers of publications. Topics in arid ecology clustered into seven broad groups on word-based similarity. These groups ranged from mammal ecology and population genetics, broad-scale management and ecosystem modelling, plant ecology, agriculture and ecophysiology, to populations and paleoclimate. These patterns may reflect trends in the field of ecology more broadly. We also identified two broad research gaps in arid ecology: population genetics, and habitat and spatial research. Collaborations between population genetics and ecologists and investigations of ecological processes across spatial scales would contribute profitably to the advancement of arid ecology and to ecology more broadly. PMID:28384186

Spatial-temporal Evolution of Vegetation Coverage and Analysis of it’s Future Trends in Wujiang River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Jianyong; Bai, Xiaoyong; Zhou, Dequan; Qian, Qinghuan; Zeng, Cheng; Chen, Fei

2018-01-01

Vegetation coverage dynamics is affected by climatic, topography and human activities, which is an important indicator reflecting the regional ecological environment. Revealing the spatial-temporal characteristics of vegetation coverage is of great significance to the protection and management of ecological environment. Based on MODIS NDVI data and the Maximum Value Composites (MVC), we excluded soil spectrum interference to calculate Fractional Vegetation Coverage (FVC). Then the long-term FVC was used to calculate the spatial pattern and temporal variation of vegetation in Wujiang River Basin from 2000 to 2016 by using Trend analysis and Hurst index. The relationship between topography and spatial distribution of FVC was analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The multi-annual mean vegetation coverage reveals a spatial distribution variation characteristic of low value in midstream and high level in other parts of the basin, owing a mean value of 0.6567. (2) From 2000 to 2016, the FVC of the Wujiang River Basin fluctuated between 0.6110 and 0.7380, and the overall growth rate of FVC was 0.0074/a. (3) The area of vegetation coverage tending to improve is more than that going to degrade in the future. Grass land, Arable land and Others improved significantly; karst rocky desertification comprehensive management project lead to persistent vegetation coverage improvement of Grass land, Arable land and Others. Residential land is covered with obviously degraded vegetation, resulting of urban sprawl; (4) The spatial distribution of FVC is positively correlated with TNI. Researches of spatial-temporal evolution of vegetation coverage have significant meaning for the ecological environment protection and management of the Wujiang River Basin.

Trends In Nutrient and Sediment Concentrations and Loads In Major River Basins of the South-Central United States, 1993-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rebich, Richard A.; Demcheck, Dennis K.

2008-01-01

Nutrient and sediment data collected at 115 sites by Federal and State agencies from 1993 to 2004 were analyzed by the U.S. Geological Survey to determine trends in concentrations and loads for selected rivers and streams that drain into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico from the south-central United States, specifically from the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas-White-Red, and Texas-Gulf Basins. Trends observed in the study area were compared to determine potential regional patterns and to determine cause-effect relations with trends in hydrologic and human-induced factors such as nutrient sources, streamflow, and implementation of best management practices. Secondary objectives included calculation of loads and yields for the study period as a basis for comparing the delivery of nutrients and sediment to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico from the various rivers within the study area. In addition, loads were assessed at seven selected sites for the period 1980-2004 to give hydrologic perspective to trends in loads observed during 1993-2004. Most study sites (about 64 percent) either had no trends or decreasing trends in streamflow during the study period. The regional pattern of decreasing trends in streamflow during the study period appeared to correspond to moist conditions at the beginning of the study period and the influence of three drought periods during the study period, of which the most extreme was in 2000. Trend tests were completed for ammonia at 49 sites, for nitrite plus nitrate at 69 sites, and for total nitrogen at 41 sites. For all nitrogen constituents analyzed, no trends were observed at half or more of the sites. No regional trend patterns could be confirmed because there was poor spatial representation of the trend sites. Decreasing trends in flow-adjusted concentrations of ammonia were observed at 25 sites. No increasing trends in concentrations of ammonia were noted at any sites. Flow-adjusted concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate decreased at 7 sites and increased at14 sites. Flow-adjusted concentrations of total nitrogen decreased at 2 sites and increased at 12 sites. Improvements to municipal wastewater treatment facilities contributed to the decline of ammonia concentrations at selected sites. Notable increasing trends in nitrite plus nitrate and total nitrogen at selected study sites were attributed to both point and nonpointsources. Trend patterns in total nitrogen generally followed trend patterns in nitrite plus nitrate, which was understandable given that nitrite plus nitrate loads generally were 70-90 percent of the total nitrogen loads at most sites. Population data were used as a surrogate to understand the relation between changes in point sources and nutrient trends because data from wastewater treatment plants were inconsistent for this study area. Although population increased throughout the study area during the study period, there was no observed relation between increasing trends in nitrogen in study area streams and increasing trends in population. With respect to other nitrogen sources, statistical results did suggest that increasing trends in nitrogen could be related to increasing trends in nitrogen from either commercial fertilizer use and/or land application of manure. Loads of ammonia, nitrite plus nitrate, and total nitrogen decreased during the study period, but some trends in nitrogen loads were part of long-term decreases since 1980. For example, ammonia loads were shown to decrease at nearly all sites over the past decade, but at selected sites, these decreasing trends were part of much longer trends since 1980. The Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers contributed the highest nitrogen loads to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as expected; however, nitrogen yields from smaller rivers had similar or higher yields than yields from the Mississippi River. Trend tests were completed for orthophosphorus at 34 sites and for total phosphorus at 52 sites. No trends were observed in abo

Characterizing China's energy consumption with selective economic factors and energy-resource endowment: a spatial econometric approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Lei; Ji, Minhe; Bai, Ling

2015-06-01

Coupled with intricate regional interactions, the provincial disparity of energy-resource endowment and other economic conditions in China have created spatially complex energy consumption patterns that require analyses beyond the traditional ones. To distill the spatial effect out of the resource and economic factors on China's energy consumption, this study recast the traditional econometric model in a spatial context. Several analytic steps were taken to reveal different aspects of the issue. Per capita energy consumption (AVEC) at the provincial level was first mapped to reveal spatial clusters of high energy consumption being located in either well developed or energy resourceful regions. This visual spatial autocorrelation pattern of AVEC was quantitatively tested to confirm its existence among Chinese provinces. A Moran scatterplot was employed to further display a relatively centralized trend occurring in those provinces that had parallel AVEC, revealing a spatial structure with attraction among high-high or low-low regions and repellency among high-low or low-high regions. By a comparison between the ordinary least square (OLS) model and its spatial econometric counterparts, a spatial error model (SEM) was selected to analyze the impact of major economic determinants on AVEC. While the analytic results revealed a significant positive correlation between AVEC and economic development, other determinants showed some intricate influential patterns. The provinces endowed with rich energy reserves were inclined to consume much more energy than those otherwise, whereas changing the economic structure by increasing the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries also tended to consume more energy. Both situations seem to underpin the fact that these provinces were largely trapped in the economies that were supported by technologies of low energy efficiency during the period, while other parts of the country were rapidly modernized by adopting advanced technologies and more efficient industries. On the other hand, institutional change (i.e., marketization) and innovation (i.e., technological progress) exerted positive impacts on AVEC improvement, as always expected in this and other studies. Finally, the model comparison indicated that SEM was capable of separating spatial effect from the error term of OLS, so as to improve goodness-of-fit and the significance level of individual determinants.

On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dawei; Zhang, Rong; Knutson, Thomas R.

2017-04-01

This study aims to understand the relative roles of external forcing versus internal climate variability in causing the observed Barents Sea winter sea ice extent (SIE) decline since 1979. We identify major discrepancies in the spatial patterns of winter Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentration trends over the satellite period between observations and CMIP5 multi-model mean externally forced response. The CMIP5 externally forced decline in Barents Sea winter SIE is much weaker than that observed. Across CMIP5 ensemble members, March Barents Sea SIE trends have little correlation with global mean surface air temperature trends, but are strongly anti-correlated with trends in Atlantic heat transport across the Barents Sea Opening (BSO). Further comparison with control simulations from coupled climate models suggests that enhanced Atlantic heat transport across the BSO associated with regional internal variability may have played a leading role in the observed decline in winter Barents Sea SIE since 1979.

Arctic temperature and moisture trends during the past 2000 years - Progress from multiproxy-paleoclimate data compilations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, Darrell; Routson, Cody; McKay, Nicholas; Beltrami, Hugo; Jaume-Santero, Fernando; Konecky, Bronwen; Saenger, Casey

2017-04-01

Instrumental climate data and climate-model projections show that Arctic-wide surface temperature and precipitation are positively correlated. Higher temperatures coincide with greater moisture by: (1) expanding the duration and source area for evaporation as sea ice retracts, (2) enhancing the poleward moisture transport, and (3) increasing the water-vapor content of the atmosphere. Higher temperature also influences evaporation rate, and therefore precipitation minus evaporation (P-E), the climate variable often sensed by paleo-hydroclimate proxies. Here, we test whether Arctic temperature and moisture also correlate on centennial timescales over the Common Era (CE). We use the new PAGES2k multiproxy-temperature dataset along with a first-pass compilation of moisture-sensitive proxy records to calculate century-scale composite timeseries, with a focus on longer records that extend back through the first millennium CE. We present a new Arctic borehole temperature reconstruction as a check on the magnitude of Little Ice Age cooling inferred from the proxy records, and we investigate the spatial pattern of centennial-scale variability. Similar to previous reconstructions, v2 of the PAGES2k proxy temperature dataset shows that, prior to the 20th century, mean annual Arctic-wide temperature decreased over the CE. The millennial-scale cooling trend is most prominent in proxy records from glacier ice, but is also registered in lake and marine sediment, and trees. In contrast, the composite of moisture-sensitive (primarily P-E) records does not exhibit a millennial-scale trend. Determining whether fluctuations in the mean state of Arctic temperature and moisture were in fact decoupled is hampered by the difficulty in detecting a significant trend within the relatively small number of spatially heterogeneous multi-proxy moisture-sensitive records. A decoupling of temperature and moisture would indicate that evaporation had a strong counterbalancing effect on precipitation and/or that shifting circulation patterns overwhelmed any multi-centennial-scale co-variability.

The uncertainties and causes of the recent changes in global evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Bo; Dai, Aiguo

2017-07-01

Recent studies have shown considerable changes in terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) since the early 1980s, but the causes of these changes remain unclear. In this study, the relative contributions of external climate forcing and internal climate variability to the recent ET changes are examined. Three datasets of global terrestrial ET and the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble mean ET are analyzed, respectively, to quantify the apparent and externally-forced ET changes, while the unforced ET variations are estimated as the apparent ET minus the forced component. Large discrepancies of the ET estimates, in terms of their trend, variability, and temperature- and precipitation-dependence, are found among the three datasets. Results show that the forced global-mean ET exhibits an upward trend of 0.08 mm day-1 century-1 from 1982 to 2010. The forced ET also contains considerable multi-year to decadal variations during the latter half of the 20th century that are caused by volcanic aerosols. The spatial patterns and interannual variations of the forced ET are more closely linked to precipitation than temperature. After removing the forced component, the global-mean ET shows a trend ranging from -0.07 to 0.06 mm day-1 century-1 during 1982-2010 with varying spatial patterns among the three datasets. Furthermore, linkages between the unforced ET and internal climate modes are examined. Variations in Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are found to be consistently correlated with ET over many land areas among the ET datasets. The results suggest that there are large uncertainties in our current estimates of global terrestrial ET for the recent decades, and the greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol external forcings account for a large part of the apparent trend in global-mean terrestrial ET since 1982, but Pacific SST and other internal climate variability dominate recent ET variations and changes over most regions.

Exploring Spatiotemporal Trends in Commercial Fishing Effort of an Abalone Fishing Zone: A GIS-Based Hotspot Model

PubMed Central

Jalali, M. Ali; Ierodiaconou, Daniel; Gorfine, Harry; Monk, Jacquomo; Rattray, Alex

2015-01-01

Assessing patterns of fisheries activity at a scale related to resource exploitation has received particular attention in recent times. However, acquiring data about the distribution and spatiotemporal allocation of catch and fishing effort in small scale benthic fisheries remains challenging. Here, we used GIS-based spatio-statistical models to investigate the footprint of commercial diving events on blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) stocks along the south-west coast of Victoria, Australia from 2008 to 2011. Using abalone catch data matched with GPS location we found catch per unit of fishing effort (CPUE) was not uniformly spatially and temporally distributed across the study area. Spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analysis revealed significant spatiotemporal clusters of CPUE (with distance thresholds of 100’s of meters) among years, indicating the presence of CPUE hotspots focused on specific reefs. Cumulative hotspot maps indicated that certain reef complexes were consistently targeted across years but with varying intensity, however often a relatively small proportion of the full reef extent was targeted. Integrating CPUE with remotely-sensed light detection and ranging (LiDAR) derived bathymetry data using generalized additive mixed model corroborated that fishing pressure primarily coincided with shallow, rugose and complex components of reef structures. This study demonstrates that a geospatial approach is efficient in detecting patterns and trends in commercial fishing effort and its association with seafloor characteristics. PMID:25992800

Regional patterns of interannual variability of catchment water balances across the continental U.S.: A Budyko framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmona, Alejandra M.; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Yaeger, Mary A.; Poveda, Germán.

2014-12-01

Patterns of interannual variability of the annual water balance are explored using data from 190 MOPEX catchments across the continental U.S. This analysis has led to the derivation of a quantitative, dimensionless, Budyko-type framework to characterize the observed interannual variability of annual water balances. The resulting model is expressed in terms of a humidity index that measures the competition between water and energy availability at the annual time scale, and a similarity parameter (α) that captures the net effects of other short-term climate features and local landscape characteristics. This application of the model to the 190 study catchments revealed the existence of space-time symmetry between spatial (between-catchment) variability and general trends in the temporal (between-year) variability of the annual water balances. The MOPEX study catchments were classified into eight similar catchment groups on the basis of magnitudes of the similarity parameter α. Interesting regional trends of α across the continental U.S. were brought out through identification of similarities between the spatial positions of the catchment groups with the mapping of distinctive ecoregions that implicitly take into account common climatic and vegetation characteristics. In this context, this study has introduced a deep sense of similarity that is evident in observed space-time variability of water balances that also reflect the codependence and coevolution of climate and landscape properties.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Nan; Zhu, Wenquan; Zheng, Zhoutao

The long-term Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series data set generated from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR) has been widely used to monitor vegetation activity change. The third version of NDVI (NDVI3g) produced by the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) group was released recently. The comparisons between the new and old versions should be conducted for linking existing studies with future applications of NDVI3g in monitoring vegetation activity change. Based on simple and piecewise linear regression methods, this research made a comparative analysis between NDVIg and NDVI3g for monitoring vegetation activity change and its responses tomore » climate change in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during 1982–2008. Our results indicated that there were large differences between NDVIg and NDVI3g in the spatial patterns for both the overall changing trends and the timing of Turning Points (TP) in NDVI time series, which spread over almost the entire study region. The average NDVI trend from NDVI3g was almost twice as great as that from NDVIg and the detected average timing of TP from NDVI3g was about one year later. Although the general spatial patterns were consistent between two data sets for detecting the responses of growing-season NDVI to temperature and precipitation changes, there were large differences in the response magnitude, with a higher response magnitude to temperature in NDVI3g and an opposite response to precipitation change for the two data sets. Finally, these results demonstrated that the NDVIg data set may underestimate the vegetation activity change trend and its response to climate change in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during the past three decades.« less

Variation and Trends of Landscape Dynamics, Land Surface Phenology and Net Primary Production of the Appalachian Mountains

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Yeqiao; Zhao, Jianjun; Zhou, Yuyu

2012-12-15

The gradients of the Appalachian Mountains in elevations and latitudes provide a unique regional perspective of landscape variations in the eastern United States and a section of the southeastern Canada. This study reveals patterns and trends of landscape dynamics, land surface phenology and ecosystem production along the Appalachian Mountains using time series data from Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) and AVHRR Global Production Efficiency Model (GloPEM) datasets. We analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), length of growing season (LOS) and net primary production (NPP) of selected ecoregions along the Appalachian Mountains regions.more » We compared the results out of the Appalachian Mountains regions in different spatial contexts including the North America and the Appalachian Trail corridor area. To reveal latitudinal variations we analyzed data and compared the results between 30°N-40°N and 40°N-50°N latitudes. The result revealed significant decreases in annual peak NDVI in the Appalachian Mountains regions. The trend for the Appalachian Mountains regions was -0.0018 (R2=0.55, P<0.0001) NDVI unit decrease per year during 25 years between 1982 and 2006. The LOS had prolonged 0.3 day yr-1 during 25 years over the Appalachian Mountains regions. The NPP increased by 2.68 gC m-2yr-2 in Appalachian Mountains regions from 1981 to 2000. The comparison with the North America reveals the effects of topography and ecosystem compositions of the Appalachian Mountains. The comparison with the Appalachian Trail corridor area provides a regional mega-transect view of the measured variables.« less

A Case Study of Differing Effects of Urbanization on Streamflow From Two Proximate Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandes, D.; Lott, F.

2007-12-01

The effects of urbanization on streamflow from two proximate watersheds (Little Lehigh Creek (LLC) and Monocacy Creek (MC)) are investigated. Despite close similarities in rainfall, population growth, land use, imperviousness, and geology of the watersheds, streamflows at the LLC gage have changed markedly over the past 50 years, while those at the MC gage have not. In LLC, there are significant increasing trends in annual stormflow volume, annual maximum flow, and flashiness, but there are no significant trends in these measures in MC. Neither stream shows significant trends in annual baseflow volume or low flow. It appears that the distinct difference in response to urbanization of these two streams can be ascribed to differences in 1) watershed geomorphology, 2) spatial distribution, composition, and infiltration characteristics of carbonate bedrock, and 3) the spatial pattern of land development in each watershed with respect to the gage location. In regards to geomorphology, there is a steeper main channel and narrower floodplains in LLC than in MC. Carbonate soil and bedrock (primarily dolostone) are distributed throughout much of LLC watershed but only in the lower half of MC watershed; however the lower MC watershed (primarily limestone) has much more abundant sinkholes and karst features than in the LLC watershed. Finally, residential and commercial development is concentrated in the upper two thirds of the LLC watershed, where travel times are such that these areas contribute to the peak flows measured at the gage. Development is concentrated in the lower third of the MC watershed, where it has had less effect on peak flows at the gage. Overall, the study indicates that relatively subtle differences between watershed characteristics and development patterns can result in significant differences in runoff and in how streamflow regimes may change in response to urbanization.

Spatial patterns of the congenital heart disease prevalence among 0- to 14-year-old children in Sichuan Basin, P. R China, from 2004 to 2009

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Congenital heart disease (CHD) is the most common type of major birth defects in Sichuan, the most populous province in China. The detailed etiology of CHD is unknown but some environmental factors are suspected as the cause of this disease. However, the geographical variations in CHD prevalence would be highly valuable in providing a clue on the role of the environment in CHD etiology. Here, we investigate the spatial patterns and geographic differences in CHD prevalence among 0- to 14-year-old children, discuss the possible environmental risk factors that might be associated with CHD prevalence in Sichuan Basin from 2004 to 2009. Methods The hierarchical Bayesian model was used to estimate CHD prevalence at the township level. Spatial autocorrelation statistics were performed, and a hot-spot analysis with different distance thresholds was used to identify the spatial pattern of CHD prevalence. Distribution and clustering maps were drawn using geographic information system tools. Results CHD prevalence was significantly clustered in Sichuan Basin in different spatial scale. Typical hot/cold clusters were identified, and possible CHD causes were discussed. The association between selected hypothetical environmental factors of maternal exposure and CHD prevalence was evaluated. Conclusions The largest hot-spot clustering phenomena and the CHD prevalence clustering trend among 0- to 14-year-old children in the study area showed a plausibly close similarity with those observed in the Tuojiang River Basin. The high ecological risk of heavy metal(Cd, As, and Pb)sediments in the middle and lower streams of the Tuojiang River watershed and ammonia–nitrogen pollution may have contribution to the high prevalence of CHD in this area. PMID:24924350

Long-term patterns of air temperatures, daily temperature range, precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in the USA Great Plains: Part I. Spatial trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukal, M.; Irmak, S.

2016-11-01

Due to their substantial spatio-temporal behavior, long-term quantification and analyses of important hydrological variables are essential for practical applications in water resources planning, evaluating the water use of agricultural crop production and quantifying crop evapotranspiration patterns and irrigation management vs. hydrologic balance relationships. Observed data at over 800 sites across the Great Plains of USA, comprising of 9 states and 2,307,410 km2 of surface area, which is about 30% of the terrestrial area of the USA, were used to quantify and map large-scale and long-term (1968-2013) spatial trends of air temperatures, daily temperature range (DTR), precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and aridity index (AI) at monthly, growing season and annual time steps. Air temperatures had a strong north to south increasing trend, with annual average varying from -1 to 24 °C, and growing season average temperature varying from 8 to 30 °C. DTR gradually decreased from western to eastern parts of the region, with a regional annual and growing season averages of 14.25 °C and 14.79 °C, respectively. Precipitation had a gradual shift towards higher magnitudes from west to east, with the average annual and growing season (May-September) precipitation ranging from 163 to 1486 mm and from 98 to 746 mm, respectively. ETo had a southwest-northeast decreasing trend, with regional annual and growing season averages of 1297 mm and 823 mm, respectively. AI increased from west to east, indicating higher humidity (less arid) towards the east, with regional annual and growing season averages of 0.49 and 0.44, respectively. The spatial datasets and maps for these important climate variables can serve as valuable background for climate change and hydrologic studies in the Great Plains region. Through identification of priority areas from the developed maps, efforts of the concerned personnel and agencies and resources can be diverted towards development of holistic strategies to address water supply and demand challenges under changing climate. These strategies can consist of, but not limited to, advancing water, crop and soil management, and genetic improvements and their relationships with the climatic variables on large scales.

A review on the temporal pattern of deer-vehicle accidents: impact of seasonal, diurnal and lunar effects in cervids.

PubMed

Steiner, Wolfgang; Leisch, Friedrich; Hackländer, Klaus

2014-05-01

The increasing number of deer-vehicle-accidents (DVAs) and the resulting economic costs have promoted numerous studies on behavioural and environmental factors which may contribute to the quantity, spatiotemporal distribution and characteristics of DVAs. Contrary to the spatial pattern of DVAs, data of their temporal pattern is scarce and difficult to obtain because of insufficient accuracy in available datasets, missing standardization in data aquisition, legal terms and low reporting rates to authorities. Literature of deer-traffic collisions on roads and railways is reviewed to examine current understanding of DVA temporal trends. Seasonal, diurnal and lunar peak accident periods are identified for deer, although seasonal pattern are not consistent among and within species or regions and data on effects of lunar cycles on DVAs is almost non-existent. Cluster analysis of seasonal DVA data shows nine distinct clusters of different seasonal DVA pattern for cervid species within the reviewed literature. Studies analyzing the relationship between time-related traffic predictors and DVAs yield mixed results. Despite the seasonal dissimilarity, diurnal DVA pattern are comparatively constant in deer, resulting in pronounced DVA peaks during the hours of dusk and dawn frequently described as bimodal crepuscular pattern. Behavioural aspects in activity seem to have the highest impact in DVAs temporal trends. Differences and variations are related to habitat-, climatic- and traffic characteristics as well as effects of predation, hunting and disturbance. Knowledge of detailed temporal DVA pattern is essential for prevention management as well as for the application and evaluation of mitigation measures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forest resources of nations in relation to human well-being.

PubMed

Kauppi, Pekka E; Sandström, Vilma; Lipponen, Antti

2018-01-01

A universal turnaround has been detected in many countries of the World from shrinking to expanding forests. The forest area of western Europe expanded already in the 19th century. Such early trends of forest resources cannot be associated with the rapid rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide nor with the anthropogenic climate change, which have taken place since the mid 20th century. Modern, most recent spatial patterns of forest expansions and contractions do not correlate with the geography of climate trends nor with dry versus moist areas. Instead, the forest resources trends of nations correlate positively with UNDP Human Development Index. This indicates that forest resources of nations have improved along with progress in human well-being. Highly developed countries apply modern agricultural methods on good farmlands and abandon marginal lands, which become available for forest expansion. Developed countries invest in sustainable programs of forest management and nature protection. Our findings are significant for predicting the future of the terrestrial carbon sink. They suggest that the large sink of carbon recently observed in forests of the World will persist, if the well-being of people continues to improve. However, despite the positive trends in domestic forests, developed nations increasingly outsource their biomass needs abroad through international trade, and all nations rely on unsustainable energy use and wasteful patterns of material consumption.

Spatial and topographic trends in forest expansion and biomass change, from regional to local scales.

PubMed

Buma, Brian; Barrett, Tara M

2015-09-01

Natural forest growth and expansion are important carbon sequestration processes globally. Climate change is likely to increase forest growth in some regions via CO2 fertilization, increased temperatures, and altered precipitation; however, altered disturbance regimes and climate stress (e.g. drought) will act to reduce carbon stocks in forests as well. Observations of asynchrony in forest change is useful in determining current trends in forest carbon stocks, both in terms of forest density (e.g. Mg ha(-1) ) and spatially (extent and location). Monitoring change in natural (unmanaged) areas is particularly useful, as while afforestation and recovery from historic land use are currently large carbon sinks, the long-term viability of those sinks depends on climate change and disturbance dynamics at their particular location. We utilize a large, unmanaged biome (>135 000 km(2) ) which spans a broad latitudinal gradient to explore how variation in location affects forest density and spatial patterning: the forests of the North American temperate rainforests in Alaska, which store >2.8 Pg C in biomass and soil, equivalent to >8% of the C in contiguous US forests. We demonstrate that the regional biome is shifting; gains exceed losses and are located in different spatio-topographic contexts. Forest gains are concentrated on northerly aspects, lower elevations, and higher latitudes, especially in sheltered areas, whereas loss is skewed toward southerly aspects and lower latitudes. Repeat plot-scale biomass data (n = 759) indicate that within-forest biomass gains outpace losses (live trees >12.7 cm diameter, 986 Gg yr(-1) ) on gentler slopes and in higher latitudes. This work demonstrates that while temperate rainforest dynamics occur at fine spatial scales (<1000 m(2) ), the net result of thousands of individual events is regionally patterned change. Correlations between the disturbance/establishment imbalance and biomass accumulation suggest the potential for relatively rapid biome shifts and biomass changes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatial and temporal snowpack variation in the crown of the continent ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Selkowitz, D.J.; Fagre, D.B.; Reardon, B.A.

2002-01-01

Snowpack related ecosystem changes such as glacier recession and alpine treeline advance have been documented in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem (CCE) over the course of the previous 150 years. Using data from the Natural Resource Conservation Service's SNOTEL sites and snow course surveys, we examined the spatial and temporal variation in snowpack in the region. SNOTEL data suggest CCE snowpacks are larger and more persistent than in most regions of the Western U.S., and that water year precipitation, rather than mean temperature, is the primary control on April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE). Snow course data indicate a statistically significant downward trend in mean April 1 SWE for the period 1950-2001 but no statistically significant trend in mean May 1 SWE for the longer period 1922-2001. Further analysis reveals that variations in both April 1 and May 1 mean SWE are closely tied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, an ENSO-like interdecadal pattern of Pacific Ocean climate variability. Despite no significant trend in mean May 1 SWE between 1922-2001, glaciers in Glacier National Park receded steadily during this period, implying changing climatic conditions crossed a threshold for glacier mass balance maintenace sometime between the Little Ice Age glacial maxima and 1922.

Spatial evolution of Zn-Fe-Pb isotopes of sphalerite within a single ore body: A case study from the Dongshengmiao ore deposit, Inner Mongolia, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Zhaofu; Zhu, Xiangkun; Sun, Jian; Luo, Zhaohua; Bao, Chuang; Tang, Chao; Ma, Jianxiong

2018-01-01

Analyses of sphalerite minerals from the characteristic brecciated Zn-Pb ores of the main ore body in the giant Dongshengmiao deposit have revealed variations in δ66Zn from 0.17 to 0.40‰ and in δ56Fe from -1.78 to -0.35‰. Further, the investigated pyrrhotite samples have iron that is isotopically similar to that of associated sphalerite minerals. The most distinctive pattern revealed by the zinc and iron isotope data is the lateral trend of increasing δ66Zn and δ56Fe values from southwest to northeast within the main ore body. The lead isotopic homogeneity of ore sulfides from the main ore body suggests that there is only one significant source for metal, thus precluding the mixing of multiple metal sources as the key factor controlling spatial variations of zinc and iron isotopes. The most likely control on spatial variations is Rayleigh fractionation during hydrothermal fluid flow, with lighter Zn and Fe isotopes preferentially incorporated into the earliest sulfides to precipitate from fluids. Precipitations of sphalerite and pyrrhotite have played vital roles in the Zn and Fe isotopic variations, respectively, of the ore-forming system. Accordingly, the larger isotopic variability for Fe than Zn within the same hydrothermal system perhaps resulted from a larger proportion of precipitation for pyrrhotite than for sphalerite. The lateral trend pattern revealed by the zinc and iron isotope data is consistent with the occurrence of a cystic-shaped breccia zone, which is characterized by marked elevation in Cu. The results further confirm that Zn and Fe isotopes can be used as a vectoring tool for mineral prospecting.

Contrasted spatial and long-term trends in precipitation chemistry and deposition fluxes at rural stations in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascaud, A.; Sauvage, S.; Coddeville, P.; Nicolas, M.; Croisé, L.; Mezdour, A.; Probst, A.

2016-12-01

The long-distance effect of atmospheric pollution on ecosystems has led to the conclusion of international agreements to regulate atmospheric emissions and monitor their impact. This study investigated variations in atmospheric deposition chemistry in France using data gathered from three different monitoring networks (37 stations) over the period from 1995 to 2007. Despite some methodological differences (e.g. type of collector, frequency of sampling and analysis), converging results were found in spatial variations, seasonal patterns and temporal trends. With regard to spatial variations, the mean annual pH in particular ranged from 4.9 in the north-east to 5.8 in the south-east. This gradient was related to the concentration of NO3- and non-sea-salt SO42- (maximum volume-weighted mean of 38 and 31 μeq l-1 respectively) and of acid-neutralising compounds such as non-sea-salt Ca2+ and NH4+. In terms of seasonal variations, winter and autumn pH were linked to lower acidity neutralisation than during the warm season. The temporal trends in atmospheric deposition varied depending on the chemical species and site location. The most significant and widespread trend was the decrease in non-sea-salt SO42- concentrations (significant at 65% of the stations). At the same time, many stations showed an increasing trend in annual pH (+0.3 on average for 16 stations). These two trends are probably due to the reduction in SO2 emissions that has been imposed in Europe since the 1980s. Temporal trends in inorganic N concentrations were rather moderate and not consistent with the trends reported in emission estimates. Despite the reduction in NOx emissions, NO3- concentrations in atmospheric deposition remained mostly unchanged or even increased at three stations (+0.43 μeq l-1 yr-1 on average). In contrast NH4+ concentrations in atmospheric deposition decreased at several stations located in western and northern areas, while the estimates of NH3 emissions remained fairly stable. The decrease in non-sea-salt SO42- and NH4+ concentrations was mainly due to a decrease in summer values and can in part be related to a dilution process since the precipitation amount showed an increasing trend during the summer. Furthermore, increasing trends in NO3- concentrations in the spring and, to a lesser extent, in NH4+ concentrations suggested that other atmospheric physicochemical processes should also be taken into account.

Abnormal interactions of verbal- and spatial-memory networks in young people at familial high-risk for schizophrenia.

PubMed

Li, Xiaobo; Thermenos, Heidi W; Wu, Ziyan; Momura, Yoko; Wu, Kai; Keshavan, Matcheri; Seidman, Lawrence; DeLisi, Lynn E

2016-10-01

Working memory impairment (especially in verbal and spatial domains) is the core neurocognitive impairment in schizophrenia and the familial high-risk (FHR) population. Inconsistent results have been reported in clinical and neuroimaging studies examining the verbal- and spatial-memory deficits in the FHR subjects, due to sample differences and lack of understanding on interactions of the brain regions for processing verbal- and spatial-working memory. Functional MRI data acquired during a verbal- vs. spatial-memory task were included from 51 young adults [26 FHR and 25 controls]. Group comparisons were conducted in brain activation patterns responding to 1) verbal-memory condition (A), 2) spatial-memory condition (B), 3) verbal higher than spatial (A-B), 4) spatial higher than verbal (B-A), 5) conjunction of brain regions that were activated during both A and B (A∧B). Group difference of the laterality index (LI) in inferior frontal lobe for condition A was also assessed. Compared to controls, the FHR group exhibited significantly decreased brain activity in left inferior frontal during A, and significantly stronger involvement of ACC, PCC, paracentral gyrus for the contrast of A-B. The LI showed a trend of reduced left-higher-than-right pattern for verbal-memory processing in the HR group. Our findings suggest that in the entire functional brain network for working-memory processing, verbal information processing associated brain pathways are significantly altered in people at familial high risk for developing schizophrenia. Future studies will need to examine whether these alterations may indicate vulnerability for predicting the onset of Schizophrenia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Globalization and multi-spatial trends in the coverage of protected-area conservation (1980-2000).

PubMed

Zimmerer, Karl S; Galt, Ryan E; Buck, Margaret V

2004-12-01

This study is focused on the global expansion of protected-area coverage that occurred during the 1980--2000 period. We examine the multi-scale patterning of four of the basic facets of this expansion: i) estimated increases at the world-regional and country-level scales of total protected-area coverage; ii) transboundary protected areas; iii) conservation corridor projects; and iv) type of conservation management. Geospatial patterning of protected-area designations is a reflection of the priorities of global conservation organizations and the globalization of post-Cold War political and economic arrangements. Local and national-level factors (political leadership and infrastructure) as well as international relations such as multilateral and bilateral aid combine with these globalization processes to impact the extent, type, and location of protected-area designations. We conclude that the interaction of these factors led to the creation and reinforcement of marked spatial differences (rather than tendencies toward worldwide evenness or homogenization) in the course of protected-area expansion during the 1980--2000 period.

Spatiotemporal distribution of Holocene populations in North America

PubMed Central

Chaput, Michelle A.; Kriesche, Björn; Betts, Matthew; Martindale, Andrew; Kulik, Rafal; Schmidt, Volker; Gajewski, Konrad

2015-01-01

As the Cordilleran and Laurentide Ice Sheets retreated, North America was colonized by human populations; however, the spatial patterns of subsequent population growth are unclear. Temporal frequency distributions of aggregated radiocarbon (14C) dates are used as a proxy of population size and can be used to track this expansion. The Canadian Archaeological Radiocarbon Database contains more than 35,000 14C dates and is used in this study to map the spatiotemporal demographic changes of Holocene populations in North America at a continental scale for the past 13,000 y. We use the kernel method, which converts the spatial distribution of 14C dates into estimates of population density at 500-y intervals. The resulting maps reveal temporally distinct, dynamic patterns associated with paleodemographic trends that correspond well to genetic, archaeological, and ethnohistoric evidence of human occupation. These results have implications for hypothesizing and testing migration routes into and across North America as well as the relative influence of North American populations on the evolution of the North American ecosystem. PMID:26351683

Human activity spaces and plague risks in three contrasting landscapes in Lushoto District, Tanzania.

PubMed

Hieronimo, Proches; Gulinck, Hubert; Kimaro, Didas N; Mulungu, Loth S; Kihupi, Nganga I; Msanya, Balthazar M; Leirs, Herwig; Deckers, Jozef A

2014-07-01

Since 1980 plague has been a human threat in the Western Usambara Mountains in Tanzania. However, the spatial-temporal pattern of plague occurrence remains poorly understood. The main objective of this study was to gain understanding of human activity patterns in relation to spatial distribution of fleas in Lushoto District. Data were collected in three landscapes differing in plague incidence. Field survey coupled with Geographic Information System (GIS) and physical sample collections were used to collect data in wet (April to June 2012) and dry (August to October 2012) seasons. Data analysis was done using GIS, one-way ANOVA and nonparametric statistical tools. The degree of spatial co-occurrence of potential disease vectors (fleas) and humans in Lushoto focus differs significantly (p ≤ 0.05) among the selected landscapes, and in both seasons. This trend gives a coarse indication of the possible association of the plague outbreaks and the human frequencies of contacting environments with fleas. The study suggests that plague surveillance and control programmes at landscape scale should consider the existence of plague vector contagion risk gradient from high to low incidence landscapes due to human presence and intensity of activities.

Combining chemometric tools for assessing hazard sources and factors acting simultaneously in contaminated areas. Case study: "Mar Piccolo" Taranto (South Italy).

PubMed

Mali, Matilda; Dell'Anna, Maria Michela; Notarnicola, Michele; Damiani, Leonardo; Mastrorilli, Piero

2017-10-01

Almost all marine coastal ecosystems possess complex structural and dynamic characteristics, which are influenced by anthropogenic causes and natural processes as well. Revealing the impact of sources and factors controlling the spatial distributions of contaminants within highly polluted areas is a fundamental propaedeutic step of their quality evaluation. Combination of different pattern recognition techniques, applied to one of the most polluted Mediterranean coastal basin, resulted in a more reliable hazard assessment. PCA/CA and factorial ANOVA were exploited as complementary techniques for apprehending the impact of multi-sources and multi-factors acting simultaneously and leading to similarities or differences in the spatial contamination pattern. The combination of PCA/CA and factorial ANOVA allowed, on one hand to determine the main processes and factors controlling the contamination trend within different layers and different basins, and, on the other hand, to ascertain possible synergistic effects. This approach showed the significance of a spatially representative overview given by the combination of PCA-CA/ANOVA in inferring the historical anthropogenic sources loading on the area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Satellite retrieval of actual evapotranspiration in the Tibetan Plateau: Components partitioning, multidecadal trends and dominated factors identifying

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weiguang; Li, Jinxing; Yu, Zhongbo; Ding, Yimin; Xing, Wanqiu; Lu, Wenjun

2018-04-01

As the only connecting term between water balance and energy budget in the earth-atmospheric system, evapotranspiration (ET) is considered the most excellent indicator for the activity for the water and energy cycle. Under the background of global change, regional ET estimates, components partitioning as well as their spatial and temporal patterns recognition are of great importance in understanding the hydrological processes and improving water management practices. This is particularly true for the Tibetan Plateau (TP), one of most sensitive and vulnerable region in response to the environment change in the earth. In this study, with flux site observation data and monthly ET data from the monthly water balance method incorporating the terrestrial water storage changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite (GRACE) production as the multiple validations, the long-term daily ET in the TP was retrieved by a modified Penman-Monteith-Leuning (PML) model with considering evapotranspiration over snow covered area during 1982-2012. The spatial and temporal changes of partitioned three components of ET, i.e., soil evaporation (Es), transpiration through the stomata of plant (Ec) and canopy interception (Ei), were investigated in the TP. Meanwhile, how the ET components contribute to ET changes and respond to the change in environmental factors in the TP was revealed and discussed. The results indicate that Es dominates ET in most areas of the TP with the mean annual ratio of 65.7%, except southeastern regions where the vegetation coverage is high. Although regional average ET and three main components all present obvious increase trends during the past decades, high spatial heterogeneity for their trends are identified in the TP. Moreover, a mixed changing pattern can be apparently found for Es in southeastern area, Ec and Ei in northwestern and southeastern area. Spatially, the ET variation are mainly attributed to change in Es, followed by Ec and Ei. In addition, compared with evaporation-related meteorological variables, precipitation and leaf area index (LAI) provide the more dominated contributions to the changes of ET and Ei in the TP, while LAI is overwhelming contribution factor for Ec changes. As for Es changes, although precipitation play the important role, the effects of other factors are also non-negligible.

Structural and tectonic setting of the Charleston, South Carolina, region: Evidence from the Tertiary stratigraphic record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weems, R.E.; Lewis, W.C.

2002-01-01

Eleven upper Eocene through Pliocene stratigraphic units occur in the subsurface of the region surrounding Charleston, South Carolina. These units contain a wealth of information concerning the long-term tectonic and structural setting of that area. These stratigraphic units have a mosaic pattern of distribution, rather than a simple layered pattern, because deposition, erosion, and tectonic warping have interacted in a complex manner through time. By generating separate structure-contour maps for the base of each stratigraphic unit, an estimate of the original basal surface of each unit can be reconstructed over wide areas. Changes in sea level over geologic time generate patterns of deposition and erosion that are geographically unique for the time of each transgression. Such patterns fail to persist when compared sequentially over time. In some areas, however, there has been persistent, repetitive net downward of upward movement over the past 34 m.y. These repetitive patterns of persistent motion are most readily attributable to tectonism. The spatial pattern of these high and low areas is complex, but it appears to correlate well with known tectonic features of the region. This correlation suggests that the tectonic setting of the Charleston region is controlled by scissors-like compression on a crustal block located between the north-trending Adams Run fault and the northwest-trending Charleston fault. Tectonism is localized in the Charleston region because it lies within a discrete hinge zone that accommodates structural movement between the Cape Fear arch and the Southeast Georgia embayment.

Creation of Synthetic Surface Temperature and Precipitation Ensembles Through A Computationally Efficient, Mixed Method Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartin, C.; Lynch, C.; Kravitz, B.; Link, R. P.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.

2017-12-01

Typically, uncertainty quantification of internal variability relies on large ensembles of climate model runs under multiple forcing scenarios or perturbations in a parameter space. Computationally efficient, standard pattern scaling techniques only generate one realization and do not capture the complicated dynamics of the climate system (i.e., stochastic variations with a frequency-domain structure). In this study, we generate large ensembles of climate data with spatially and temporally coherent variability across a subselection of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. First, for each CMIP5 model we apply a pattern emulation approach to derive the model response to external forcing. We take all the spatial and temporal variability that isn't explained by the emulator and decompose it into non-physically based structures through use of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Then, we perform a Fourier decomposition of the EOF projection coefficients to capture the input fields' temporal autocorrelation so that our new emulated patterns reproduce the proper timescales of climate response and "memory" in the climate system. Through this 3-step process, we derive computationally efficient climate projections consistent with CMIP5 model trends and modes of variability, which address a number of deficiencies inherent in the ability of pattern scaling to reproduce complex climate model behavior.

Spatial and temporal patterns of stranded intertidal marine debris: is there a picture of global change?

PubMed

Browne, Mark Anthony; Chapman, M Gee; Thompson, Richard C; Amaral Zettler, Linda A; Jambeck, Jenna; Mallos, Nicholas J

2015-06-16

Floating and stranded marine debris is widespread. Increasing sea levels and altered rainfall, solar radiation, wind speed, waves, and oceanic currents associated with climatic change are likely to transfer more debris from coastal cities into marine and coastal habitats. Marine debris causes economic and ecological impacts, but understanding the scope of these requires quantitative information on spatial patterns and trends in the amounts and types of debris at a global scale. There are very few large-scale programs to measure debris, but many peer-reviewed and published scientific studies of marine debris describe local patterns. Unfortunately, methods of defining debris, sampling, and interpreting patterns in space or time vary considerably among studies, yet if data could be synthesized across studies, a global picture of the problem may be avaliable. We analyzed 104 published scientific papers on marine debris in order to determine how to evaluate this. Although many studies were well designed to answer specific questions, definitions of what constitutes marine debris, the methods used to measure, and the scale of the scope of the studies means that no general picture can emerge from this wealth of data. These problems are detailed to guide future studies and guidelines provided to enable the collection of more comparable data to better manage this growing problem.

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

2016-10-31

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. We present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. Here, we find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth’s energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback betweenmore » the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. Our results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and o er a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.« less

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. We present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. Here, we find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth’s energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback betweenmore » the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. Our results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and o er a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.« less

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth's energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

2016-12-01

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. Here we present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. We find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth's energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback between the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. These results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and offer a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.

Spatial and Temporal Patterns in Black Carbon Deposition to Dated Fennoscandian Arctic Lake Sediments from 1830 to 2010.

PubMed

Ruppel, Meri M; Gustafsson, Örjan; Rose, Neil L; Pesonen, Antto; Yang, Handong; Weckström, Jan; Palonen, Vesa; Oinonen, Markku J; Korhola, Atte

2015-12-15

Black carbon (BC) is fine particulate matter produced by the incomplete combustion of biomass and fossil fuels. It has a strong climate warming effect that is amplified in the Arctic. Long-term trends of BC play an important role in assessing the climatic effects of BC and in model validation. However, few historical BC records exist from high latitudes. We present five lake-sediment soot-BC (SBC) records from the Fennoscandian Arctic and compare them with records of spheroidal carbonaceous fly-ash particles (SCPs), another BC component, for ca. the last 120 years. The records show spatial and temporal variation in SBC fluxes. Two northernmost lakes indicate declining values from 1960 to the present, which is consistent with modeled BC deposition and atmospheric measurements in the area. However, two lakes located closer to the Kola Peninsula (Russia) have recorded increasing SBC fluxes from 1970 to the present, which is likely caused by regional industrial emissions. The increasing trend is in agreement with a Svalbard ice-core-BC record. The results suggest that BC deposition in parts of the European Arctic may have increased over the last few decades, and further studies are needed to clarify the spatial extent of the increasing BC values and to ascertain the climatic implications.

Spatial dynamics of two oriental fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) parasitoids, Fopius arisanus and Diachasmimorpha longicaudata (Hymenoptera: Braconidae), in a Guava orchard in Hawaii.

PubMed

Vargas, Roger I; Stark, John D; Banks, John; Leblanc, Luc; Manoukis, Nicholas C; Peck, Steven

2013-10-01

We examined spatial patterns of both sexes of oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), and its two most abundant parasitoids, Fopius arisanus (Sonan) and Diachasmimorpha longicaudata (Ashmead) in a commercial guava (Psidium guajava L.) orchard. Oriental fruit fly spatial patterns were initially random, but became highly aggregated with host fruit ripening and the subsequent colonization of, first, F. arisanus (egg-pupal parasitoid) and, second, D. longicaudata (larval-pupal parasitoid). There was a significant positive relationship between populations of oriental fruit fly and F. arisanus during each of the F. arisanus increases, a pattern not exhibited between oriental fruit fly and D. longicaudata. Generally, highest total numbers of males and females (oriental fruit fly, F. arisanus, and D. longicaudata) occurred on or about the same date. There was a significant positive correlation between male and female populations of all three species; we measured a lag of 2-4 wk between increases of female F. arisanus and conspecific males. There was a similar trend in one of the two years for the second most abundant species, D. longicaudata, but no sign of a time lag between the sexes for oriental fruit fly. Spatially, we found a significant positive relationship between numbers of F. arisanus in blocks and the average number in adjoining blocks. We did not find the same effect for oriental fruit fly and D. longicaudata, possibly a result of lower overall numbers of the latter two species or less movement of F. arisanus within the field.

Patterns of Spatial Variation of Assemblages Associated with Intertidal Rocky Shores: A Global Perspective

PubMed Central

Cruz-Motta, Juan José; Miloslavich, Patricia; Palomo, Gabriela; Iken, Katrin; Konar, Brenda; Pohle, Gerhard; Trott, Tom; Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro; Herrera, César; Hernández, Alejandra; Sardi, Adriana; Bueno, Andrea; Castillo, Julio; Klein, Eduardo; Guerra-Castro, Edlin; Gobin, Judith; Gómez, Diana Isabel; Riosmena-Rodríguez, Rafael; Mead, Angela; Bigatti, Gregorio; Knowlton, Ann; Shirayama, Yoshihisa

2010-01-01

Assemblages associated with intertidal rocky shores were examined for large scale distribution patterns with specific emphasis on identifying latitudinal trends of species richness and taxonomic distinctiveness. Seventy-two sites distributed around the globe were evaluated following the standardized sampling protocol of the Census of Marine Life NaGISA project (www.nagisa.coml.org). There were no clear patterns of standardized estimators of species richness along latitudinal gradients or among Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs); however, a strong latitudinal gradient in taxonomic composition (i.e., proportion of different taxonomic groups in a given sample) was observed. Environmental variables related to natural influences were strongly related to the distribution patterns of the assemblages on the LME scale, particularly photoperiod, sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall. In contrast, no environmental variables directly associated with human influences (with the exception of the inorganic pollution index) were related to assemblage patterns among LMEs. Correlations of the natural assemblages with either latitudinal gradients or environmental variables were equally strong suggesting that neither neutral models nor models based solely on environmental variables sufficiently explain spatial variation of these assemblages at a global scale. Despite the data shortcomings in this study (e.g., unbalanced sample distribution), we show the importance of generating biological global databases for the use in large-scale diversity comparisons of rocky intertidal assemblages to stimulate continued sampling and analyses. PMID:21179546

Geographic patterns and dynamics of Alaskan climate interpolated from a sparse station record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fleming, Michael D.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Cramer, W.; Hufford, Gary L.; Serreze, Mark C.

2000-01-01

Data from a sparse network of climate stations in Alaska were interpolated to provide 1-km resolution maps of mean monthly temperature and precipitation-variables that are required at high spatial resolution for input into regional models of ecological processes and resource management. The interpolation model is based on thin-plate smoothing splines, which uses the spatial data along with a digital elevation model to incorporate local topography. The model provides maps that are consistent with regional climatology and with patterns recognized by experienced weather forecasters. The broad patterns of Alaskan climate are well represented and include latitudinal and altitudinal trends in temperature and precipitation and gradients in continentality. Variations within these broad patterns reflect both the weakening and reduction in frequency of low-pressure centres in their eastward movement across southern Alaska during the summer, and the shift of the storm tracks into central and northern Alaska in late summer. Not surprisingly, apparent artifacts of the interpolated climate occur primarily in regions with few or no stations. The interpolation model did not accurately represent low-level winter temperature inversions that occur within large valleys and basins. Along with well-recognized climate patterns, the model captures local topographic effects that would not be depicted using standard interpolation techniques. This suggests that similar procedures could be used to generate high-resolution maps for other high-latitude regions with a sparse density of data.

Regional nutrient trends in streams and rivers of the United States, 1993-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sprague, Lori A.; Lorenz, David L.

2009-01-01

Trends in flow-adjusted concentrations (indicators of anthropogenic changes) and observed concentrations (indicators of natural and anthropogenic changes) of total phosphorus and total nitrogen from 1993 to 2003 were evaluated in the eastern, central, and western United States by adapting the Regional Kendall trend test to account for seasonality and spatial correlation. The only significant regional trend was an increase in flow-adjusted concentrations of total phosphorus in the central United States, which corresponded to increases in phosphorus inputs from fertilizer in the region, particularly west of the Mississippi River. A similar upward regional trend in observed total phosphorus concentrations in the central United States was not found, likely because precipitation and runoff decreased during drought conditions in the region, offsetting the increased source loading on the land surface. A greater number of regional trends would have been significant if spatial correlation had been disregarded, indicating the importance of spatial correlation modifications in regional trend assessments when sites are not spatially independent.

Combining satellite derived phenology with climate data for climate change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivits, E.; Cherlet, M.; Tóth, G.; Sommer, S.; Mehl, W.; Vogt, J.; Micale, F.

2012-05-01

The projected influence of climate change on the timing and volume of phytomass production is expected to affect a number of ecosystem services. In order to develop coherent and locally effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, spatially explicit information on the observed changes is needed. Long-term variations of the vegetative growing season in different environmental zones of Europe for 1982-2006 have been derived by analysing time series of GIMMS NDVI data. The associations of phenologically homogenous spatial clusters to time series of temperature and precipitation data were evaluated. North-east Europe showed a trend to an earlier and longer growing season, particularly in the northern Baltic areas. Despite the earlier greening up large areas of Europe exhibited rather stable season length indicating the shift of the entire growing season to an earlier period. The northern Mediterranean displayed a growing season shift towards later dates while some agglomerations of earlier and shorter growing season were also seen. The correlation of phenological time series with climate data shows a cause-and-effect relationship over the semi natural areas consistent with results in literature. Managed ecosystems however appear to have heterogeneous change pattern with less or no correlation to climatic trends. Over these areas climatic trends seemed to overlap in a complex manner with more pronounced effects of local biophysical conditions and/or land management practices. Our results underline the importance of satellite derived phenological observations to explain local nonconformities to climatic trends for climate change impact assessment.

Time series evaluation of landscape dynamics using annual Landsat imagery and spatial statistical modeling: Evidence from the Phoenix metropolitan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Chao; Myint, Soe W.; Rey, Sergio J.; Li, Wenwen

2017-06-01

Urbanization is a natural and social process involving simultaneous changes to the Earth's land systems, energy flow, demographics, and the economy. Understanding the spatiotemporal pattern of urbanization is increasingly important for policy formulation, decision making, and natural resource management. A combination of satellite remote sensing and patch-based models has been widely adopted to characterize landscape changes at various spatial and temporal scales. Nevertheless, the validity of this type of framework in identifying long-term changes, especially subtle or gradual land modifications is seriously challenged. In this paper, we integrate annual image time series, continuous spatial indices, and non-parametric trend analysis into a spatiotemporal study of landscape dynamics over the Phoenix metropolitan area from 1991 to 2010. We harness local indicators of spatial dependence and modified Mann-Kendall test to describe the monotonic trends in the quantity and spatial arrangement of two important land use land cover types: vegetation and built-up areas. Results suggest that declines in vegetation and increases in built-up areas are the two prevalent types of changes across the region. Vegetation increases mostly occur at the outskirts where new residential areas are developed from natural desert. A sizable proportion of vegetation declines and built-up increases are seen in the central and southeast part. Extensive land conversion from agricultural fields into urban land use is one important driver of vegetation declines. The xeriscaping practice also contributes to part of vegetation loss and an increasingly heterogeneous landscape. The quantitative framework proposed in this study provides a pathway to effective landscape mapping and change monitoring from a spatial statistical perspective.

Variogram analysis of stable oxygen isotope composition of daily precipitation over the British Isles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohán, Balázs; Tyler, Jonathan; Jones, Matthew; Kern, Zoltán

2017-04-01

Water stable isotopes are important natural tracers in the hydrological cycle on global, regional and local scales. Daily precipitation water samples were collected from 70 sites over the British Isles on the 23rd, 24th, and 25th January, 2012 [1]. Samples were collected as part of a pilot study for the British Isotopes in Rainfall Project, a community engagement initiative, in collaboration with volunteer weather observers and the UK Met Office. Spatial correlation structure of daily precipitation stable oxygen isotope composition (δ18OP) has been explored by variogram analysis [2]. Since the variograms from the raw data suggested a pronounced trend, owing to the spatial trend discussed in the original study [1], a second order polynomial trend was removed from the raw δ18OP data and variograms were calculated on the residuals. Directional experimental semivariograms were calculated (steps: 10°, tolerance: 30°) and aggregated into variogram surface plots to explore the spatial dependence structure of daily δ18OP. Each daily data set produced distinct variogram plots. -A well expressed anisotropic structure can be seen for Jan 23. The lowest and highest variance was observed in the SW-NE and NNE-SSW direction, respectively. Meteorological observations showed that the majority of the atmospheric flow was SW on this day, so the direction of low variance seems to reflect this flow direction, while the maximum variance might reflect the moisture variance near the elongation of the frontal system. -A less characteristic but still expressed anisotropic structure was found for Jan 24 when a warm front passed the British Isles perpendicular to the east coast, leading to a characteristic east-west δ18OP gradient suggestive of progressive rainout. The low variance central zone has a 100 km radius which might correspond well to the width of the warm front zone. Although, the axis of minimum variance was similarly SW-NE, the zone of maximum variance was broader and practically perpendicular to it. In this case, however, directions of the axes appear misaligned with the flow direction. -We could not observe similar characteristic patterns in the last variogram calculated from the Jan 25 data set. These preliminary results suggest that variogram analysis is a promising approach to link δ18OP patterns to atmospheric processes. NKFIH: SNN118205/ARRS: N1-0054 References 1.Tyler, J. J., Jones, M., Arrowsmith, C., Allott, T., & Leng, M. J. (2016). Spatial patterns in the oxygen isotope composition of daily rainfall in the British Isles. Climate Dynamics 47:1971-1987 2.Webster, R. Oliver M.A. (2007) Geostatistics for Environmental Scientists. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester

Multidecadal Atlantic climate variability and its impact on marine pelagic communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Victoria; Edwards, Martin; Olhede, Sofia C.

2014-05-01

A large scale analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) and climate variability over the North Atlantic and its interactions with plankton over the North East Atlantic was carried out to better understand what drives both temperature and species abundance. The spatio-temporal pattern of SST was found to correspond to known climate indices, namely the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The spatial influence of these indices is heterogeneous. Although the AMO is present across all regions, it is most strongly represented in the SST signal in the subpolar gyre region. The NAO instead is strongly weighted in the North Sea and the pattern of its influence is oscillatory in space with a wavelength of approximately 6000 km. Natural oscillations might obscure the influence of climate change effects, making it difficult to determine how much of the variation is attributable to longer term trends. In order to separate the influences of different climate signals the SST signals were decomposed in to spatial and temporal components using principal component analysis (PCA). A similar analysis is carried out on various indicator species of plankton: Calanus finmarchicus, Phytoplankton Colour Index and total copepod abundance, as well as phytoplankton and zooplankton communities. By comparing the two outputs it is apparent that the dominant driver is the recent warming trend, which has a negative influence on C. finmarchicus and total copepods, but has a positive one on phytoplankton colour. However natural oscillations also influence the abundance of plankton, in particular the AMO is a driver of diatom abundance. Fourier principal component analysis, an approach which is novel in terms of the ecological data, was used to analyse the behaviour of various communities averaged over space. The zooplankton community is found to be primarily influenced by climate warming trends. The analysis provides compelling evidence for the hypothesis that cold water species are gradually being replaced by more temperate species in the North Atlantic. This may have detrimental effects for the entire marine ecosystem, by affecting on organisms such as fish larva for example. The second group, a phytoplankton subset consisting primarily of diatom species, is primarily influenced by the AMO rather than the average temperature trend. This result highlights the importance of natural oscillations to certain functional groups, in particular those subgroups which are less directly metabolically affected by changes in temperature.

Political Shifts and Forest Transitions: A Review and Theoretical Framework for Future Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ordway, E.

2015-12-01

Most armed conflicts in recent history have occurred in biodiversity hotspots. Yet, studies examining impacts of warfare on forests yield contradictory results making it difficult to decipher trends and patterns. This study provides a theoretical framework that can be used to clarify hypothetical relationships between conflict and forest transitions, contributing to our ability to push forward a growing field of research on environmental change and conflict. Landsat TM and ETM+ satellite data were analyzed to examine forest transitions in Rwanda during a conflict and post conflict period. Net trends showed little difference between periods, with a rate of 1.6% annual gain in forest cover during conflict years, and 2.5% after the conflict. Further investigation revealed spatially concentrated forest loss during conflict years; 96% of forest loss occurred in protected areas with the most loss in Gishwati Forest Reserve at a rate of 6.1%. Trends were explored using spatially explicit conflict data that distinguished armed conflict activity from conflict induced settlements. Impacts of conflict on forests in Rwanda appear to be influenced by natural resource use near settlements. Massive migrations of people into settlements during the conflict, who had previously been scattered across the landscape, likely resulted in a redistribution of pressures. Reduced pressure elsewhere supports this inference. Results underscore the vulnerability of protected areas and the spatial dynamics of forest resource dependence during conflicts. This work demonstrates the value of distinguishing conflict activities to assess their varied environmental effects, and contributes to our theoretical development of environmental change and conflict.

Comparison of Personal PM2.5 Exposure in Various Micro-Environments during Haze and Clean Days in Nanjing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, T.

2015-12-01

There is a long term trend of haze in East China. As a main component of haze, fine particle (PM2.5) in various micro-environments (MEs) is a cause for concern regarding the environment and public health. To estimate individual PM2.5 exposures in distinct, non-residential MEs and to determine exposure characteristics during haze and clean days, we conducted personal PM2.5 monitoring with portable PM2.5 personal environment monitors (MicroPEM) in 19 indoor/outdoor MEs in Nanjing, and compared personal exposure data with ambient PM2.5 levels. Personal PM2.5 exposure patterns displayed notable spatial variance, peaking in snack streets and restaurants and dipping in subways and labs. Under both haze and non-haze conditions, different characteristics of MEs and the background PM2.5 level jointly determine the spatial variance of individual exposure. Indoor MEs with better ventilation systems led to lower personal PM2.5 exposure levels. During haze days, impact from high ambient PM2.5 overwhelms influence from other factors and dominates personal exposure trends.

Trends in surface ozone over Europe, 1978-1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Low, Pak Sum; Kelly, P. Michael; Davies, Trevor D.

1994-01-01

It has been suggested that surface ozone concentrations in rural areas of Europe have been increasing at a rate of 1 to 3 percent per year over the past two to three decades, presumably due to human influences (Feister and Warmbt, 1987; Bojkov, 1988; Penkett, 1989). Recently, we have analyzed surface ozone data from 20 European stations of differing character (remote, rural, suburban and urban) for a common period of 1978-1988 (Low et al., 1992). It was found that there were pronounced annual and seasonal variations in the linear trends in different areas, and there was no dominant region-wide trend. In spring and, most notably, summer, stations on the maritime fringe of the network generally exhibited negative trends whilst those located further into the continental interior exhibited positive trends. In winter, most of the stations in the network exhibited positive trends. Relatively few of these trends were statistically significant. This paper updates our earlier analysis by extending the data sets of the network up to the year 1990. The spatial variations in surface ozone trends over the extended period 1978-1990 are examined and discussed in comparison to the 1978-1988 patterns. The update confirms the overall conclusions of the earlier analysis, specifically that caution should be exercised in interpreting the results of trend analyses based on station data representative of a limited period of time and/or geographical area.

[Dynamic evolution of landscape spatial pattern in Taihu Lake basin, China].

PubMed

Wang, Fang; Xie, Xiao Ping; Chen, Zhi Cong

2017-11-01

Based on the land-use satellite image datasets of 2000, 2010 and 2015, the landscape index, dynamic change model, landscape transfer matrix and CLUE-S model were integrated to analyze the dynamic evolution of the landscape spatial pattern of Taihu Lake basin. The results showed that the landscape type of the basin was dominated by cultivated land and construction land, and the degree of landscape fragmentation was strengthened from 2000 to 2015, and the distribution showed a uniform trend. From the point of transfer dynamic change, the cultivated land and construction land changed significantly, which was reduced by 6761 km 2 (2.1%) and increased by 6615.33 km 2 (8.4%), respectively. From the landscape transfer, it could be seen that the main change direction of the cultivated land reduction was the construction land, and the cultivated land with 7866.30 km 2 was converted into construction land, accounting for 91.6% of the cultivated land change, and the contribution to the construction land was 96.5%. The trend of dynamic changes of cultivated and construction land in the counties and cities was the same as that of the whole Taihu Lake basin. For Shanghai Central Urban, as well as Pudong District, Lin'an City, Baoshan District, Minhang District, Jiading District and Changzhou City, the area of the cultivated land and construction land changed more prominently. However, compared with the CLUE-S model for the landscape pattern change in 2030, the change of cultivated and construction lands would be the largest in the natural development scenario. Under the ecological protection scenario, the area of grassland would increase and the dynamic degree would reach 54.5%. Under the situation of cultivated land protection, the conversion of cultivated land to construction land would be decreased.

Simulating effects of fire disturbance and climate change on boreal forest productivity and evapotranspiration.

PubMed

Kang, Sinkyu; Kimball, John S; Running, Steven W

2006-06-01

We used a terrestrial ecosystem process model, BIOME-BGC, to investigate historical climate change and fire disturbance effects on regional carbon and water budgets within a 357,500 km(2) portion of the Canadian boreal forest. Historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO2, climate change, and regional fire activity were used as model drivers to evaluate the relative effects of these impacts to spatial patterns and temporal trends in forest net primary production (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Historical trends of increasing atmospheric CO2 resulted in overall 13% and 5% increases in annual NPP and ET from 1994 to 1996, respectively. NPP was found to be relatively sensitive to changes in air temperature (T(a)), while ET was more sensitive to precipitation (P) change within the ranges of observed climate variability (e.g., +/-2 degrees C for T(a) and +/-20% for P). In addition, the potential effect of climate change related warming on NPP is exacerbated or offset depending on whether these changes are accompanied by respective decreases or increases in precipitation. Historical fire activity generally resulted in reductions of both NPP and ET, which consumed an average of approximately 6% of annual NPP from 1959 to 1996. Areas currently occupied by dry conifer forests were found to be subject to more frequent fire activity, which consumed approximately 8% of annual NPP. The results of this study show that the North American boreal ecosystem is sensitive to historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO2, climate change and regional fire activity. The relative impacts of these disturbances on NPP and ET interact in complex ways and are spatially variable depending on regional land cover and climate gradients.

Spatial patterns of soil nutrients and groundwater levels within the Debre Mawi watershed of the Ethiopian highlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzman, Christian; Tilahun, Seifu; Dagnew, Dessalegn; Zegeye, Assefe; Tebebu, Tigist; Yitaferu, Birru; Steenhuis, Tammo

2015-04-01

Persistent patterns of erosion have emerged in the Ethiopian highlands leading to soil and water conservation practices being implemented throughout the countryside. A common concern is the loss of soil fertility and loss of soil water. This study investigates the spatial patterns of soil nutrients and water table depths in a small sub-watershed in the northwestern Ethiopian highlands. NPK, a particularly important group of nutrients for inorganic fertilizer considerations, did not follow a consistent trend as a group along and across slope and land use transects. Whereas nitrogen content was greatest in the upslope regions (~0.1% TN), available phosphorus had comparably similar content in the different slope regions throughout the watershed (~2.7 mg/kg). The exchangeable cations (K, Ca, Mg) did increase in content in a downslope direction (in most cases though, they were highest in the middle region) but not consistently later in the season. On average, calcium (40 cmol/kg), magnesium (5 cmol/kg), and potassium (0.5 cmol/kg) were orders of magnitudes different in content. The perched water table in different areas of the watershed showed a very distinct trend. The lower part of the sub-watershed had shallower levels of water table depths (less than 10 cm from the surface) than did the upper parts of the sub-watershed (usually greater than 120 cm from the surface). The middle part of the sub-watershed had water table depths located at 40 to 70 cm below the surface. These results show how the landscape slope position and land use may be important for planning where and when soil nutrients and water would be expected to be appropriately "conserved" or stored.

Mercury bioaccumulation increases with latitude in a coastal marine fish (Atlantic silverside, Menidia menidia)

PubMed Central

Baumann, Zofia; Mason, Robert P.; Conover, David O.; Balcom, Prentiss; Chen, Celia Y.; Buckman, Kate L.; Fisher, Nicholas S.; Baumann, Hannes

2016-01-01

Human exposure to the neurotoxic methylmercury (MeHg) occurs primarily via the consumption of marine fish, but the processes underlying large-scale spatial variations in fish MeHg concentrations [MeHg], which influence human exposure, are not sufficiently understood. We used the Atlantic silverside (Menidia menidia), an extensively studied model species and important forage fish, to examine latitudinal patterns in total Hg [Hg] and [MeHg]. Both [Hg] and [MeHg] significantly increased with latitude (0.014 and 0.048 μg MeHg g−1 dw per degree of latitude in juveniles and adults, respectively). Four known latitudinal trends in silverside traits help explain these patterns: latitudinal increase in MeHg assimilation efficiency, latitudinal decrease in MeHg efflux, latitudinal increase in weight loss due to longer and more severe winters, and latitudinal increase in food consumption as an adaptation to decreasing length of the growing season. Given the absence of a latitudinal pattern in particulate MeHg, a diet proxy for zooplanktivorous fish, we conclude that large-scale spatial variation in growth is the primary control of Hg bioaccumulation in this and potentially other fish species. PMID:28701819

Extent of Night Warming Differentiates the Temporal Trend of Tropical Greenness over 2001-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, M.; Gao, Q.; Gao, C.; Wang, C.

2016-12-01

Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamic but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and associated mechanisms are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated trend of greenness in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000 - 2015 and further analyzed the trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to separate the climate impacts. We hypothesized that rainfall decrease or/and warming would reduce EVI in this tropical region. All five countries showed significantly decreasing EVI except Cuba of which EVI was increasing partly due to strong reforestation. Haiti has the steepest decreasing EVI due to its deforestation for charcoals. EVI trend varied greatly even for patches without LCLUC, tending to decrease in the windward but increase in the leeward of the island Puerto Rico. Contrary to our intuition, the rainfall was mostly increasing. However the rising night temperature significantly and negatively correlates with the spatial pattern of EVI trends. Although the cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, night warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend.

Spatial patterns of natural hazards mortality in the United States

PubMed Central

Borden, Kevin A; Cutter, Susan L

2008-01-01

Background Studies on natural hazard mortality are most often hazard-specific (e.g. floods, earthquakes, heat), event specific (e.g. Hurricane Katrina), or lack adequate temporal or geographic coverage. This makes it difficult to assess mortality from natural hazards in any systematic way. This paper examines the spatial patterns of natural hazard mortality at the county-level for the U.S. from 1970–2004 using a combination of geographical and epidemiological methods. Results Chronic everyday hazards such as severe weather (summer and winter) and heat account for the majority of natural hazard fatalities. The regions most prone to deaths from natural hazards are the South and intermountain west, but sub-regional county-level mortality patterns show more variability. There is a distinct urban/rural component to the county patterns as well as a coastal trend. Significant clusters of high mortality are in the lower Mississippi Valley, upper Great Plains, and Mountain West, with additional areas in west Texas, and the panhandle of Florida, Significant clusters of low mortality are in the Midwest and urbanized Northeast. Conclusion There is no consistent source of hazard mortality data, yet improvements in existing databases can produce quality data that can be incorporated into spatial epidemiological studies as demonstrated in this paper. It is important to view natural hazard mortality through a geographic lens so as to better inform the public living in such hazard prone areas, but more importantly to inform local emergency practitioners who must plan for and respond to disasters in their community. PMID:19091058

Generation of Earth's First-Order Biodiversity Pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krug, Andrew Z.; Jablonski, David; Valentine, James W.; Roy, Kaustuv

2009-02-01

The first-order biodiversity pattern on Earth today and at least as far back as the Paleozoic is the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), a decrease in richness of species and higher taxa from the equator to the poles. LDGs are produced by geographic trends in origination, extinction, and dispersal over evolutionary timescales, so that analyses of static patterns will be insufficient to reveal underlying processes. The fossil record of marine bivalve genera, a model system for the analysis of biodiversity dynamics over large temporal and spatial scales, shows that an origination and range-expansion gradient plays a major role in generating the LDG. Peak origination rates and peak diversities fall within the tropics, with range expansion out of the tropics the predominant spatial dynamic thereafter. The origination-diversity link occurs even in a "contrarian" group whose diversity peaks at midlatitudes, an exception proving the rule that spatial variations in origination are key to latitudinal diversity patterns. Extinction rates are lower in polar latitudes (≥60°) than in temperate zones and thus cannot create the observed gradient alone. They may, however, help to explain why origination and immigration are evidently damped in higher latitudes. We suggest that species require more resources in higher latitudes, for the seasonality of primary productivity increases by more than an order of magnitude from equatorial to polar regions. Higher-latitude species are generalists that, unlike potential immigrants, are adapted to garner the large share of resources required for incumbency in those regions. When resources are opened up by extinctions, lineages spread chiefly poleward and chiefly through speciation.

Generation of Earth's first-order biodiversity pattern.

PubMed

Krug, Andrew Z; Jablonski, David; Valentine, James W; Roy, Kaustuv

2009-01-01

The first-order biodiversity pattern on Earth today and at least as far back as the Paleozoic is the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), a decrease in richness of species and higher taxa from the equator to the poles. LDGs are produced by geographic trends in origination, extinction, and dispersal over evolutionary timescales, so that analyses of static patterns will be insufficient to reveal underlying processes. The fossil record of marine bivalve genera, a model system for the analysis of biodiversity dynamics over large temporal and spatial scales, shows that an origination and range-expansion gradient plays a major role in generating the LDG. Peak origination rates and peak diversities fall within the tropics, with range expansion out of the tropics the predominant spatial dynamic thereafter. The origination-diversity link occurs even in a "contrarian" group whose diversity peaks at midlatitudes, an exception proving the rule that spatial variations in origination are key to latitudinal diversity patterns. Extinction rates are lower in polar latitudes (> or =60 degrees ) than in temperate zones and thus cannot create the observed gradient alone. They may, however, help to explain why origination and immigration are evidently damped in higher latitudes. We suggest that species require more resources in higher latitudes, for the seasonality of primary productivity increases by more than an order of magnitude from equatorial to polar regions. Higher-latitude species are generalists that, unlike potential immigrants, are adapted to garner the large share of resources required for incumbency in those regions. When resources are opened up by extinctions, lineages spread chiefly poleward and chiefly through speciation.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) health indicators: linking individual-based indicators to a management-relevant endpoint

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Jones, Michael L.; Ebener, Mark P.; Arts, Michael T.; Brenden, Travis O.; Honeyfield, Dale C.; Wright, Gregory M.; Faisal, Mohamed

2010-01-01

We examined the spatial and temporal dynamics of health indicators in four lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) stocks located in northern lakes Michigan and Huron from 2003 to 2006. The specific objectives were to (1) quantify spatial and temporal variability in health indicators; (2) examine relationships among nutritional indicators and stock-specific spatial and temporal dynamics of pathogen prevalence and intensity of infection; and (3) examine relationships between indicators measured on individual fish and stock-specific estimates of natural mortality. The percent of the total variation attributed to spatial and temporal sources varied greatly depending on the health indicator examined. The most notable pattern was a downward trend in the concentration of highly unsaturated fatty acids (HUFAs), observed in all stocks, in the polar lipid fraction of lake whitefish dorsal muscle tissue over the three study years. Variation among stocks and years for some indicators were correlated with the prevalence and intensity of the swimbladder nematode Cystidicola farionis, suggesting that our measures of fish health were related, at some level, with disease dynamics. We did not find relationships between spatial patterns in fish health indicators and estimates of natural mortality rates for the stocks. Our research highlights the complexity of the interactions between fish nutritional status, disease dynamics, and natural mortality in wild fish populations. Additional research that identifies thresholds of health indicators, below (or above) which survival may be reduced, will greatly help in understanding the relationship between indicators measured on individual fish and potential population-level effects.

0.1 Trend analysis of δ18O composition of precipitation in Germany: Combining Mann-Kendall trend test and ARIMA models to correct for higher order serial correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaus, Julian; Pan Chun, Kwok; Stumpp, Christine

2015-04-01

Spatio-temporal dynamics of stable oxygen (18O) and hydrogen (2H) isotopes in precipitation can be used as proxies for changing hydro-meteorological and regional and global climate patterns. While spatial patterns and distributions gained much attention in recent years the temporal trends in stable isotope time series are rarely investigated and our understanding of them is still limited. These might be a result of a lack of proper trend detection tools and effort for exploring trend processes. Here we make use of an extensive data set of stable isotope in German precipitation. In this study we investigate temporal trends of δ18O in precipitation at 17 observation station in Germany between 1978 and 2009. For that we test different approaches for proper trend detection, accounting for first and higher order serial correlation. We test if significant trends in the isotope time series based on different models can be observed. We apply the Mann-Kendall trend tests on the isotope series, using general multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) models which account for first and higher order serial correlations. With the approach we can also account for the effects of temperature, precipitation amount on the trend. Further we investigate the role of geographic parameters on isotope trends. To benchmark our proposed approach, the ARIMA results are compared to a trend-free prewhiting (TFPW) procedure, the state of the art method for removing the first order autocorrelation in environmental trend studies. Moreover, we explore whether higher order serial correlations in isotope series affects our trend results. The results show that three out of the 17 stations have significant changes when higher order autocorrelation are adjusted, and four stations show a significant trend when temperature and precipitation effects are considered. Significant trends in the isotope time series are generally observed at low elevation stations (≤315 m a.s.l.). Higher order autoregressive processes are important in the isotope time series analysis. Our results show that the widely used trend analysis with only the first order autocorrelation adjustment may not adequately take account of the high order autocorrelated processes in the stable isotope series. The investigated time series analysis method including higher autocorrelation and external climate variable adjustments is shown to be a better alternative.

Detecting potential anomalies in projections of rainfall trends and patterns using human observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohfeld, K. E.; Savo, V.; Sillmann, J.; Morton, C.; Lepofsky, D.

2016-12-01

Shifting precipitation patterns are a well-documented consequence of climate change, but their spatial variability is particularly difficult to assess. While the accuracy of global models has increased, specific regional changes in precipitation regimes are not well captured by these models. Typically, researchers who wish to detect trends and patterns in climatic variables, such as precipitation, use instrumental observations. In our study, we combined observations of rainfall by subsistence-oriented communities with several metrics of rainfall estimated from global instrumental records for comparable time periods (1955 - 2005). This comparison was aimed at identifying: 1) which rainfall metrics best match human observations of changes in precipitation; 2) areas where local communities observe changes not detected by global models. The collated observations ( 3800) made by subsistence-oriented communities covered 129 countries ( 1830 localities). For comparable time periods, we saw a substantial correspondence between instrumental records and human observations (66-77%) at the same locations, regardless of whether we considered trends in general rainfall, drought, or extreme rainfall. We observed a clustering of mismatches in two specific regions, possibly indicating some climatic phenomena not completely captured by the currently available global models. Many human observations also indicated an increased unpredictability in the start, end, duration, and continuity of the rainy seasons, all of which may hamper the performance of subsistence activities. We suggest that future instrumental metrics should capture this unpredictability of rainfall. This information would be important for thousands of subsistence-oriented communities in planning, coping, and adapting to climate change.

Long-term trends in Anopheles gambiae insecticide resistance in Côte d'Ivoire.

PubMed

Edi, Constant A V; Koudou, Benjamin G; Bellai, Louise; Adja, Akre M; Chouaibou, Mouhamadou; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Barry, Sarah J E; Johnson, Paul C D; Müller, Pie; Dongus, Stefan; N'Goran, Eliezer K; Ranson, Hilary; Weetman, David

2014-11-28

Malaria control is heavily dependent on the use of insecticides that target adult mosquito vectors via insecticide treated nets (ITNs) or indoor residual spraying (IRS). Four classes of insecticide are approved for IRS but only pyrethroids are available for ITNs. The rapid rise in insecticide resistance in African malaria vectors has raised alarms about the sustainability of existing malaria control activities. This problem might be particularly acute in Côte d'Ivoire where resistance to all four insecticide classes has recently been recorded. Here we investigate temporal trends in insecticide resistance across the ecological zones of Côte d'Ivoire to determine whether apparent pan-African patterns of increasing resistance are detectable and consistent across insecticides and areas. We combined data on insecticide resistance from a literature review, and bioassays conducted on field-caught Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes for the four WHO-approved insecticide classes for ITN/IRS. The data were then mapped using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and the IR mapper tool to provide spatial and temporal distribution data on insecticide resistance in An. gambiae sensu lato from Côte d'Ivoire between 1993 and 2014. Bioassay mortality decreased over time for all insecticide classes, though with significant spatiotemporal variation, such that stronger declines were observed in the southern ecological zone for DDT and pyrethroids than in the central zone, but with an apparently opposite effect for the carbamate and organophosphate. Variation in relative abundance of the molecular forms, coupled with dramatic increase in kdr 1014F frequency in M forms (An. coluzzii) seems likely to be a contributory factor to these patterns. Although records of resistance across insecticide classes have become more common, the number of classes tested in studies has also increased, precluding a conclusion that multiple resistance has also increased. Our analyses attempted synthesis of 22 years of bioassay data from Côte d'Ivoire, and despite a number of caveats and potentially confounding variables, suggest significant but spatially-variable temporal trends in insecticide resistance. In the light of such spatio-temporal dynamics, regular, systematic and spatially-expanded monitoring is warranted to provide accurate information on insecticide resistance for control programme management.

Evaluating the Spatial Distribution of Toxic Air Contaminants in Multiple Ecosystem Indicators in the Sierra Nevada-Southern Cascades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanus, L.; Simonich, S. L.; Rocchio, J.; Flanagan, C.

2013-12-01

Toxic air contaminants originating from agricultural areas of the Central Valley in California threaten vulnerable sensitive receptors including surface water, vegetation, snow, sediments, fish, and amphibians in the Sierra Nevada-Southern Cascades region. The spatial distribution of toxic air contaminants in different ecosystem indicators depends on variation in atmospheric concentrations and deposition, and variation in air toxics accumulation in ecosystems. The spatial distribution of organic air toxics and mercury at over 330 unique sampling locations and sample types over two decades (1990-2009) in the Sierra Nevada-Southern Cascades region were compiled and maps were developed to further understand spatial patterns and linkages between air toxics deposition and ecological effects. Potential ecosystem impacts in the Sierra Nevada-Southern Cascades region include bioaccumulation of air toxics in both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, reproductive disruption, and immune suppression. The most sensitive ecological end points in the region that are affected by bioaccumulation of toxic air contaminants are fish. Mercury was detected in all fish and approximately 6% exceeded human consumption thresholds. Organic air toxics were also detected in fish yielding variable spatial patterns. For amphibians, which are sensitive to pesticide exposure and potential immune suppression, increasing trends in current and historic use pesticides are observed from north to south across the region. In other indicators, such as vegetation, pesticide concentrations in lichen increase with increasing elevation. Current and historic use pesticides and mercury were also observed in snowpack at high elevations in the study area. This study shows spatial patterns in toxic air contaminants, evaluates associated risks to sensitive receptors, and identifies data gaps. Future research on atmospheric modeling and information on sources is needed in order to predict which ecosystems are the most sensitive to toxic air contaminants in the Sierra Nevada-Southern Cascades region.

Analyzing spatial and temporal trends in Aboveground Biomass within the Acadian New England Forests using the complete Landsat Archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilbride, J. B.; Fraver, S.; Ayrey, E.; Weiskittel, A.; Braaten, J.; Hughes, J. M.; Hayes, D. J.

2017-12-01

Forests within the New England states and Canadian Maritime provinces, here described as the Acadian New England (ANE) forests, have undergone substantial disturbances due to insect, fire, and anthropogenic factors. Through repeated satellite observations captures by USGS's Landsat program, 45 years of disturbance information can be incorporated into modeling efforts to better understand the spatial and temporal trends in forest above ground biomass (AGB). Using Google's Earth Engine, annual mosaics were developed for the ANE study area and then disturbance and recovery metrics were developed using the temporal segmentation algorithm VeRDET. Normalization procedures were developed to incorporate the Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS, 1972 - 1985) data alongside the modern era of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM, 1984-2013), Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+, 1999 - present), and Operational Land Imager (OLI, 2013- present) data products. This has enabled the creation of a dataset with an unprecedented spatial and temporal view of forest landscape change. Model training was performed using was the Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) and New Brunswick Permanent Sample Plot data datasets. Modeling was performed using parametric techniques such as mixed effects models and non-parametric techniques such as k-NN imputation and generalized boosted regression. We compare the biomass estimate and model accuracy to other inventory and modeling studies produced within this study area. The spatial and temporal patterns of stock changes are analyzed against resource policy, land ownership changes, and forest management.

Modeling Alaska boreal forests with a controlled trend surface approach

Treesearch

Mo Zhou; Jingjing Liang

2012-01-01

An approach of Controlled Trend Surface was proposed to simultaneously take into consideration large-scale spatial trends and nonspatial effects. A geospatial model of the Alaska boreal forest was developed from 446 permanent sample plots, which addressed large-scale spatial trends in recruitment, diameter growth, and mortality. The model was tested on two sets of...

Projecting water resources changes in potential large-scale agricultural investment areas of the Kafue River Basin in Zambia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Trainor, A. M.; Baker, T. J.

2017-12-01

Climate change impacts regional water availability through the spatial and temporal redistribution of available water resources. This study focuses on understanding possible response of water resources to climate change in regions where potentials for large-scale agricultural investments are planned in the upper and middle Kafue River Basin in Zambia. We used historical and projected precipitation and temperature to assess changes in water yield, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. Some of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model outputs for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios project a temperature warming range from 1.8 - 5.7 °C over the region from 2020 to 2095. Precipitation projection patterns vary monthly but tend toward drier dry seasons with a slight increase in precipitation during the rainy season as compared to the historical time series. The best five calibrated parameter sets generated for the historical record (1965 - 2005) were applied for two future periods, 2020 - 2060 and 2055 - 2095, to project water yield change. Simulations projected that the 90th percentile water yield would be exceeded across most of the study area by up to 800% under the medium-low (RCP4.5) CO2 emission scenario, whereas the high (RCP8.5) CO2 emission scenario resulted in a more spatially varied pattern mixed with increasing (up to 500%) and decreasing (up to -54%) trends. The 10th percentile water yield indicated spatially varied pattern across the basin, increasing by as much as 500% though decreasing in some areas by 66%, with the greatest decreases during the dry season under RCP8.5. Overall, available water resources in the study area are projected to trend toward increased floods (i.e. water yields far exceeding 90th percentile) as well as increasing drought (i.e. water yield far below 10th percentile) vulnerability. Because surface water is a primary source for agriculture in this region, planning must focus on simulating the potential range in spatial and temporal variability of water resources for different agricultural production schemes, their infrastructure requirements, and attendant influence on water resources in the basin.

Beyond trend analysis: How a modified breakpoint analysis enhances knowledge of agricultural production after Zimbabwe's fast track land reform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hentze, Konrad; Thonfeld, Frank; Menz, Gunter

2017-10-01

In the discourse on land reform assessments, a significant lack of spatial and time-series data has been identified, especially with respect to Zimbabwe's ;Fast-Track Land Reform Programme; (FTLRP). At the same time, interest persists among land use change scientists to evaluate causes of land use change and therefore to increase the explanatory power of remote sensing products. This study recognizes these demands and aims to provide input on both levels: Evaluating the potential of satellite remote sensing time-series to answer questions which evolved after intensive land redistribution efforts in Zimbabwe; and investigating how time-series analysis of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can be enhanced to provide information on land reform induced land use change. To achieve this, two time-series methods are applied to MODIS NDVI data: Seasonal Trend Analysis (STA) and Breakpoint Analysis for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST). In our first analysis, a link of agricultural productivity trends to different land tenure regimes shows that regional clustering of trends is more dominant than a relationship between tenure and trend with a slightly negative slope for all regimes. We demonstrate that clusters of strong negative and positive productivity trends are results of changing irrigation patterns. To locate emerging and fallow irrigation schemes in semi-arid Zimbabwe, a new multi-method approach is developed which allows to map changes from bimodal seasonal phenological patterns to unimodal and vice versa. With an enhanced breakpoint analysis through the combination of STA and BFAST, we are able to provide a technique that can be applied on large scale to map status and development of highly productive cropping systems, which are key for food production, national export and local employment. We therefore conclude that the combination of existing and accessible time-series analysis methods: is able to achieve both: overcoming demonstrated limitations of MODIS based trend analysis and enhancing knowledge of Zimbabwe's FTLRP.

Assessment of the Spatial and Temporal Variations in TWS and GWS in Michigan's Lower Peninsula and Identification of the Controlling Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahour, H.; Sultan, M.; Fathy, K.; Yellich, J. A.; Karki, S.; Wireman, M.

2017-12-01

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has been successfully used to track changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) and ground water storage (GWS) across the globe. We use GRACE RL05 monthly mascon solutions from the Center for Space Research (CSR) and outputs of the Global Land Data Assimilation Systems (GLDAS) to investigate/extract: (1) secular trends in TWS over the entire landscape of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan throughout the GRACE operational period (2002 to 2016), (2) secular trends in GWS using the extracted TWS trends and GLDAS outputs (soil moisture, canopy water storage, surface runoff and snow water equivalent), and (3) the major natural and anthropogenic factors controlling the observed TWS and GWS variations. The extracted TWS and GWS trends were downscaled from 1º x 1º to 0.25º x 0.25º (local county scale) using logistical regression techniques. Findings include: (1) in the central and northern sections of the Lower Peninsula (43.06 °N to 45.77 °N ) the secular trends in TWS reveal two general patterns a near-steady state to modest increase in TWS (0.3 to 0.8 mm/year) for the period 2002 to 2011 (hereafter referred to as the early period [EP]), followed by an increase in TWS (9.6 to 13.8 mm/year) for the period 2012 to 2016 (hereafter referred to as the late period [LP]). (2) Similar trends for TWS were observed for the southern sections of the Lower Peninsula (41.76 °N to 43.06 °N); a near-steady to a slight increase during the EP (0.6 to 0.8 mm/year), yet a less pronounced increase was detected during the LP (4.8 to7.2 mm/year). (3) The GWS secular trends over northern and central parts of the Lower Peninsula on one hand and those for the southern sections follow the general observed patterns for the TWS throughout the EP and LP. Research is underway to accomplish the following: (1) correlate spatially and temporarily the observed variations in TWS and GWS with variations in other relevant datasets including snowfall, precipitation, land surface temperature, groundwater extraction, and groundwater levels in search for causal effects, and (2) refine our preliminary downscaling attempts by including in our logistical regression analysis as many of the relevant available variables in our analysis (e.g., precipitation, snow fall, snow water equivalent, runoff, soil moisture, and NDVI).

Comparison and Evaluation of Annual NDVI Time Series in China Derived from the NOAA AVHRR LTDR and Terra MODIS MOD13C1 Products

PubMed Central

Guo, Xiaoyi; Zhang, Hongyan; Wu, Zhengfang; Zhao, Jianjun; Zhang, Zhengxiang

2017-01-01

Time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from multiple satellite sensors are crucial data to study vegetation dynamics. The Land Long Term Data Record Version 4 (LTDR V4) NDVI dataset was recently released at a 0.05 × 0.05° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution. In this study, annual NDVI time series that are composited by the LTDR V4 and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI datasets (MOD13C1) are compared and evaluated for the period from 2001 to 2014 in China. The spatial patterns of the NDVI generally match between the LTDR V4 and MOD13C1 datasets. The transitional zone between high and low NDVI values generally matches the boundary of semi-arid and sub-humid regions. A significant and high coefficient of determination is found between the two datasets according to a pixel-based correlation analysis. The spatially averaged NDVI of LTDR V4 is characterized by a much weaker positive regression slope relative to that of the spatially averaged NDVI of the MOD13C1 dataset because of changes in NOAA AVHRR sensors between 2005 and 2006. The measured NDVI values of LTDR V4 were always higher than that of MOD13C1 in western China due to the relatively lower atmospheric water vapor content in western China, and opposite observation appeared in eastern China. In total, 18.54% of the LTDR V4 NDVI pixels exhibit significant trends, whereas 35.79% of the MOD13C1 NDVI pixels show significant trends. Good agreement is observed between the significant trends of the two datasets in the Northeast Plain, Bohai Economic Rim, Loess Plateau, and Yangtze River Delta. By contrast, the datasets contrasted in northwestern desert regions and southern China. A trend analysis of the regression slope values according to the vegetation type shows good agreement between the LTDR V4 and MOD13C1 datasets. This study demonstrates the spatial and temporal consistencies and discrepancies between the AVHRR LTDR and MODIS MOD13C1 NDVI products in China, which could provide useful information for the choice of NDVI products in subsequent studies of vegetation dynamics. PMID:28587266

Comparison and Evaluation of Annual NDVI Time Series in China Derived from the NOAA AVHRR LTDR and Terra MODIS MOD13C1 Products.

PubMed

Guo, Xiaoyi; Zhang, Hongyan; Wu, Zhengfang; Zhao, Jianjun; Zhang, Zhengxiang

2017-06-06

Time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from multiple satellite sensors are crucial data to study vegetation dynamics. The Land Long Term Data Record Version 4 (LTDR V4) NDVI dataset was recently released at a 0.05 × 0.05° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution. In this study, annual NDVI time series that are composited by the LTDR V4 and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI datasets (MOD13C1) are compared and evaluated for the period from 2001 to 2014 in China. The spatial patterns of the NDVI generally match between the LTDR V4 and MOD13C1 datasets. The transitional zone between high and low NDVI values generally matches the boundary of semi-arid and sub-humid regions. A significant and high coefficient of determination is found between the two datasets according to a pixel-based correlation analysis. The spatially averaged NDVI of LTDR V4 is characterized by a much weaker positive regression slope relative to that of the spatially averaged NDVI of the MOD13C1 dataset because of changes in NOAA AVHRR sensors between 2005 and 2006. The measured NDVI values of LTDR V4 were always higher than that of MOD13C1 in western China due to the relatively lower atmospheric water vapor content in western China, and opposite observation appeared in eastern China. In total, 18.54% of the LTDR V4 NDVI pixels exhibit significant trends, whereas 35.79% of the MOD13C1 NDVI pixels show significant trends. Good agreement is observed between the significant trends of the two datasets in the Northeast Plain, Bohai Economic Rim, Loess Plateau, and Yangtze River Delta. By contrast, the datasets contrasted in northwestern desert regions and southern China. A trend analysis of the regression slope values according to the vegetation type shows good agreement between the LTDR V4 and MOD13C1 datasets. This study demonstrates the spatial and temporal consistencies and discrepancies between the AVHRR LTDR and MODIS MOD13C1 NDVI products in China, which could provide useful information for the choice of NDVI products in subsequent studies of vegetation dynamics.

Plant Ontogeny, Spatial Distance, and Soil Type Influence Patterns of Relatedness in a Common Amazonian Tree

PubMed Central

Barbosa, Carlos Eduardo A.; Misiewicz, Tracy M.; Fine, Paul V. A.; Costa, Flávia R. C.

2013-01-01

The formation of spatial genetic structure (SGS) may originate from different patterns of seed deposition in the landscape, and is mostly determined by seed dispersal limitation. After dispersal, mechanisms such as filtering by environmental factors or attack by herbivores/pathogens throughout plant development stages, and potentially either disrupt or intensify SGS patterns. We investigated how the genotype of Protium subserratum (Burseraceae), a common tree species in the Ducke Reserve, Brazil, is distributed across the landscape. We used seven microsatellite markers to assess the SGS among plants at different life stages and in different environments. By quantifying the patterns of relatedness among plants of different sizes, we inferred the ontogenetic stage in which SGS changes occurred, and compared these effects across soil types. Relatedness among seedlings decreased when distance between seedlings increased, especially for the youngest seedlings. However, this trend was not continued by older plants, as relatedness values were higher among neighboring individuals of the juvenile and adult size class. Contrasting relatedness patterns between seedlings and larger individuals suggests a trade-off between the negative effects of being near closely-related adults (e.g. due to herbivore and pathogen attack) and the advantage of being in a site favorable to establishment. We also found that soil texture strongly influenced density-dependence patterns, as young seedlings in clay soils were more related to each other than were seedlings in bottomland sandy soils, suggesting that the mechanisms that create and maintain patterns of SGS within a population may interact with environmental heterogeneity. PMID:23667502

On the role of snow cover ablation variability and synoptic-scale atmospheric forcings at the sub-basin scale within the Great Lakes watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suriano, Zachary J.

2018-02-01

Synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions play a critical role in determining the frequency and intensity of snow cover ablation in the mid-latitudes. Using a synoptic classification technique, distinct regional circulation patterns influencing the Great Lakes basin of North America are identified and examined in conjunction with daily snow ablation events from 1960 to 2009. This approach allows for the influence of each synoptic weather type on ablation to be examined independently and for the monthly and inter-annual frequencies of the weather types to be tracked over time. Because of the spatial heterogeneity of snow cover and the relatively large geographic extent of the Great Lakes basin, snow cover ablation events and the synoptic-scale patterns that cause them are examined for each of the Great Lakes watershed's five primary sub-basins to understand the regional complexities of snow cover ablation variability. Results indicate that while many synoptic weather patterns lead to ablation across the basins, they can be generally grouped into one of only a few primary patterns: southerly flow, high-pressure overhead, and rain-on-snow patterns. As expected, the patterns leading to ablation are not necessarily consistent between the five sub-basins due to the seasonality of snow cover and the spatial variability of temperature, moisture, wind, and incoming solar radiation associated with the particular synoptic weather types. Significant trends in the inter-annual frequency of ablation-inducing synoptic types do exist for some sub-basins, indicating a potential change in the hydrologic impact of these patterns over time.

Monthly dynamics of atmospheric wet nitrogen deposition on different spatial scales in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Qiongyu; Wang, Qiufeng; Xu, Li; Zhu, Jianxing; He, Nianpeng

2018-06-16

China is one of three global hotspots for nitrogen (N) deposition, which has concerned scientists and the public. While previous studies on N deposition in China have focused on its composition, spatial pattern, and interannual dynamics, its monthly dynamics in different regions remain unclear, hindering our ability to evaluate its ecological effects. Therefore, we obtained monthly wet N deposition data from196 sites after continuous network observations and published data in China and analyzed the monthly dynamics of NH 4 + -N, NO 3 - -N, and dissolved inorganic N (DIN=NH 4 + -N+NO 3 - -N) deposition fluxes on site, regional, and national scales. We observed that the deposition fluxes of NH 4 + -N, NO 3 - -N, and DIN in China showed clear monthly patterns and regional differences. In Northern China, wet N deposition predominantly showed a unimodal trend, whereas in Southern China, it revealed a bimodal trend or irregular fluctuations. During 2000-2016, NH 4 + -N, NO 3 - -N, and DIN deposition fluxes were estimated as 9.09, 6.12, and 15.21 kg N ha -1  year. -1 , respectively. Our findings enhance our understanding of atmospheric wet N deposition, and can serve as a reference for N deposition simulation experiments in different regions, and for generating long-term N deposition data for model optimization. Regional differences in the monthly dynamics of wet N deposition should be emphasized to accurately evaluate its ecological effects on terrestrial ecosystems in different regions.

Canadian boreal forest greening and browning trends: an analysis of biogeographic patterns and the relative roles of disturbance versus climate drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulla-Menashe, Damien; Woodcock, Curtis E.; Friedl, Mark A.

2018-01-01

Recent studies have used satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series to explore geographic patterns in boreal forest greening and browning. A number of these studies indicate that boreal forests are experiencing widespread browning, and have suggested that these patterns reflect decreases in forest productivity induced by climate change. Here we use NDVI time series from Landsat, which has much higher quality and spatial resolution than imagery used in most previous studies, to characterize biogeographic patterns in greening and browning across Canada’s boreal forest and to explore the drivers behind observed trends. Our results show that the majority of NDVI changes in Canada’s boreal forest reflect disturbance-recovery dynamics not climate change impacts, that greening and browning trends outside of disturbed forests are consistent with expected ecological responses to regional changes in climate, and that observed NDVI changes are geographically limited and relatively small in magnitude. By examining covariance between changes in NDVI and temperature and precipitation in locations not affected by disturbance, our results isolate and characterize the nature and magnitude of greening and browning directly associated with climate change. Consistent with biogeographic theory, greening and browning unrelated to disturbance tended to be located in ecotones near boundaries of the boreal forest bioclimatic envelope. We observed greening to be most prevalent in Eastern Canada, which is more humid, and browning to be most prevalent in Western Canada, where forests are more prone to moisture stress. We conclude that continued long-term climate change has the potential to significantly alter the character and function of Canada’s boreal forest, but recent changes have been modest and near-term impacts are likely to be focused in or near ecotones.

Monitoring air quality in mountains: Designing an effective network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, D.L.

2000-01-01

A quantitatively robust yet parsimonious air-quality monitoring network in mountainous regions requires special attention to relevant spatial and temporal scales of measurement and inference. The design of monitoring networks should focus on the objectives required by public agencies, namely: 1) determine if some threshold has been exceeded (e.g., for regulatory purposes), and 2) identify spatial patterns and temporal trends (e.g., to protect natural resources). A short-term, multi-scale assessment to quantify spatial variability in air quality is a valuable asset in designing a network, in conjunction with an evaluation of existing data and simulation-model output. A recent assessment in Washington state (USA) quantified spatial variability in tropospheric ozone distribution ranging from a single watershed to the western third of the state. Spatial and temporal coherence in ozone exposure modified by predictable elevational relationships ( 1.3 ppbv ozone per 100 m elevation gain) extends from urban areas to the crest of the Cascade Range. This suggests that a sparse network of permanent analyzers is sufficient at all spatial scales, with the option of periodic intensive measurements to validate network design. It is imperative that agencies cooperate in the design of monitoring networks in mountainous regions to optimize data collection and financial efficiencies.

Performance of CMIP3 and CMIP5 GCMs to simulate observed rainfall characteristics over the Western Himalayan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meher, J. K.; Das, L.

2017-12-01

The Western Himalayan Region (WHR) was subject to a significant negative trend in the annual and monsoon rainfall during 1902-2005. Annual and seasonal rainfall change over WHR of India was estimated using 22 rain gauge station rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department. The performance of 13 global climate models (GCMs) from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 3 (CMIP3) and 42 GCMs from CMIP5 was evaluated through multiple analysis: the evaluation of the mean annual cycle, annual cycles of interannual variability, spatial patterns, trends and signal-to-noise ratio. In general, CMIP5 GCMs were more skillful in terms of simulating the annual cycle of interannual variability compared to CMIP3 GCMs. The CMIP3 GCMs failed to reproduce the observed trend whereas 50% of the CMIP5 GCMs reproduced the statistical distribution of short-term (30-years) trend-estimates than for the longer term (99-years). GCMs from both CMIP3 and CMIP5 were able to simulate the spatial distribution of observed rainfall in pre-monsoon and winter months. Based on performance, each model of CMIP3 and CMIP5 was given an overall rank, which puts the high resolution version of the MIROC3.2 model (MIROC3.2 hires) and MIROC5 at the top in CMIP3 and CMIP5 respectively. Robustness of the ranking was judged through a sensitivity analysis, which indicated that ranks were independent during the process of adding or removing any individual method. It also revealed that trend analysis was not a robust method of judging performances of the model as compared to other methods.

spsann - optimization of sample patterns using spatial simulated annealing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuel-Rosa, Alessandro; Heuvelink, Gerard; Vasques, Gustavo; Anjos, Lúcia

2015-04-01

There are many algorithms and computer programs to optimize sample patterns, some private and others publicly available. A few have only been presented in scientific articles and text books. This dispersion and somewhat poor availability is holds back to their wider adoption and further development. We introduce spsann, a new R-package for the optimization of sample patterns using spatial simulated annealing. R is the most popular environment for data processing and analysis. Spatial simulated annealing is a well known method with widespread use to solve optimization problems in the soil and geo-sciences. This is mainly due to its robustness against local optima and easiness of implementation. spsann offers many optimizing criteria for sampling for variogram estimation (number of points or point-pairs per lag distance class - PPL), trend estimation (association/correlation and marginal distribution of the covariates - ACDC), and spatial interpolation (mean squared shortest distance - MSSD). spsann also includes the mean or maximum universal kriging variance (MUKV) as an optimizing criterion, which is used when the model of spatial variation is known. PPL, ACDC and MSSD were combined (PAN) for sampling when we are ignorant about the model of spatial variation. spsann solves this multi-objective optimization problem scaling the objective function values using their maximum absolute value or the mean value computed over 1000 random samples. Scaled values are aggregated using the weighted sum method. A graphical display allows to follow how the sample pattern is being perturbed during the optimization, as well as the evolution of its energy state. It is possible to start perturbing many points and exponentially reduce the number of perturbed points. The maximum perturbation distance reduces linearly with the number of iterations. The acceptance probability also reduces exponentially with the number of iterations. R is memory hungry and spatial simulated annealing is a computationally intensive method. As such, many strategies were used to reduce the computation time and memory usage: a) bottlenecks were implemented in C++, b) a finite set of candidate locations is used for perturbing the sample points, and c) data matrices are computed only once and then updated at each iteration instead of being recomputed. spsann is available at GitHub under a licence GLP Version 2.0 and will be further developed to: a) allow the use of a cost surface, b) implement other sensitive parts of the source code in C++, c) implement other optimizing criteria, d) allow to add or delete points to/from an existing point pattern.

Spatial and temporal trends in fin whale vocalizations recorded in the NE Pacific Ocean between 2003-2013

PubMed Central

Weirathmueller, Michelle J.; Stafford, Kathleen M.; Wilcock, William S. D.; Hilmo, Rose S.; Dziak, Robert P.; Tréhu, Anne M.

2017-01-01

In order to study the long-term stability of fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) singing behavior, the frequency and inter-pulse interval of fin whale 20 Hz vocalizations were observed over 10 years from 2003–2013 from bottom mounted hydrophones and seismometers in the northeast Pacific Ocean. The instrument locations extended from 40°N to 48°N and 130°W to 125°W with water depths ranging from 1500–4000 m. The inter-pulse interval (IPI) of fin whale song sequences was observed to increase at a rate of 0.54 seconds/year over the decade of observation. During the same time period, peak frequency decreased at a rate of 0.17 Hz/year. Two primary call patterns were observed. During the earlier years, the more commonly observed pattern had a single frequency and single IPI. In later years, a doublet pattern emerged, with two dominant frequencies and IPIs. Many call sequences in the intervening years appeared to represent a transitional state between the two patterns. The overall trend was consistent across the entire geographical span, although some regional differences exist. Understanding changes in acoustic behavior over long time periods is needed to help establish whether acoustic characteristics can be used to help determine population identity in a widely distributed, difficult to study species such as the fin whale. PMID:29073230

Spatial and temporal trends in fin whale vocalizations recorded in the NE Pacific Ocean between 2003-2013.

PubMed

Weirathmueller, Michelle J; Stafford, Kathleen M; Wilcock, William S D; Hilmo, Rose S; Dziak, Robert P; Tréhu, Anne M

2017-01-01

In order to study the long-term stability of fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) singing behavior, the frequency and inter-pulse interval of fin whale 20 Hz vocalizations were observed over 10 years from 2003-2013 from bottom mounted hydrophones and seismometers in the northeast Pacific Ocean. The instrument locations extended from 40°N to 48°N and 130°W to 125°W with water depths ranging from 1500-4000 m. The inter-pulse interval (IPI) of fin whale song sequences was observed to increase at a rate of 0.54 seconds/year over the decade of observation. During the same time period, peak frequency decreased at a rate of 0.17 Hz/year. Two primary call patterns were observed. During the earlier years, the more commonly observed pattern had a single frequency and single IPI. In later years, a doublet pattern emerged, with two dominant frequencies and IPIs. Many call sequences in the intervening years appeared to represent a transitional state between the two patterns. The overall trend was consistent across the entire geographical span, although some regional differences exist. Understanding changes in acoustic behavior over long time periods is needed to help establish whether acoustic characteristics can be used to help determine population identity in a widely distributed, difficult to study species such as the fin whale.

Estimating Common Growth Patterns in Juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from Diverse Genetic Stocks and a Large Spatial Extent.

PubMed

Goertler, Pascale A L; Scheuerell, Mark D; Simenstad, Charles A; Bottom, Daniel L

2016-01-01

Life history variation in Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) supports species resilience to natural disturbances and fishery exploitation. Within salmon species, life-history variation often manifests during freshwater and estuarine rearing, as variation in growth. To date, however, characterizing variability in growth patterns within and among individuals has been difficult via conventional sampling methods because of the inability to obtain repeated size measurements. In this study we related otolith microstructures to growth rates of individual juvenile Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) from the Columbia River estuary over a two-year period (2010-2012). We used dynamic factor analysis to determine whether there were common patterns in growth rates within juveniles based on their natal region, capture location habitat type, and whether they were wild or of hatchery origin. We identified up to five large-scale trends in juvenile growth rates depending on month and year of capture. We also found that hatchery fish had a narrower range of trend loadings for some capture groups, suggesting that hatchery fish do not express the same breadth of growth variability as wild fish. However, we were unable to resolve a relationship between specific growth patterns and habitat transitions. Our study exemplifies how a relatively new statistical analysis can be applied to dating or aging techniques to summarize individual variation, and characterize aspects of life history diversity.

Estimating Common Growth Patterns in Juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from Diverse Genetic Stocks and a Large Spatial Extent

PubMed Central

Scheuerell, Mark D.; Simenstad, Charles A.; Bottom, Daniel L.

2016-01-01

Life history variation in Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) supports species resilience to natural disturbances and fishery exploitation. Within salmon species, life-history variation often manifests during freshwater and estuarine rearing, as variation in growth. To date, however, characterizing variability in growth patterns within and among individuals has been difficult via conventional sampling methods because of the inability to obtain repeated size measurements. In this study we related otolith microstructures to growth rates of individual juvenile Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) from the Columbia River estuary over a two-year period (2010–2012). We used dynamic factor analysis to determine whether there were common patterns in growth rates within juveniles based on their natal region, capture location habitat type, and whether they were wild or of hatchery origin. We identified up to five large-scale trends in juvenile growth rates depending on month and year of capture. We also found that hatchery fish had a narrower range of trend loadings for some capture groups, suggesting that hatchery fish do not express the same breadth of growth variability as wild fish. However, we were unable to resolve a relationship between specific growth patterns and habitat transitions. Our study exemplifies how a relatively new statistical analysis can be applied to dating or aging techniques to summarize individual variation, and characterize aspects of life history diversity. PMID:27695094

Depth-time interpolation of feature trends extracted from mobile microelectrode data with kernel functions.

PubMed

Wong, Stephen; Hargreaves, Eric L; Baltuch, Gordon H; Jaggi, Jurg L; Danish, Shabbar F

2012-01-01

Microelectrode recording (MER) is necessary for precision localization of target structures such as the subthalamic nucleus during deep brain stimulation (DBS) surgery. Attempts to automate this process have produced quantitative temporal trends (feature activity vs. time) extracted from mobile MER data. Our goal was to evaluate computational methods of generating spatial profiles (feature activity vs. depth) from temporal trends that would decouple automated MER localization from the clinical procedure and enhance functional localization in DBS surgery. We evaluated two methods of interpolation (standard vs. kernel) that generated spatial profiles from temporal trends. We compared interpolated spatial profiles to true spatial profiles that were calculated with depth windows, using correlation coefficient analysis. Excellent approximation of true spatial profiles is achieved by interpolation. Kernel-interpolated spatial profiles produced superior correlation coefficient values at optimal kernel widths (r = 0.932-0.940) compared to standard interpolation (r = 0.891). The choice of kernel function and kernel width resulted in trade-offs in smoothing and resolution. Interpolation of feature activity to create spatial profiles from temporal trends is accurate and can standardize and facilitate MER functional localization of subcortical structures. The methods are computationally efficient, enhancing localization without imposing additional constraints on the MER clinical procedure during DBS surgery. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Interannual Variability and Trends of Extratropical Ozone, Part II: Southern Hemisphere. Part 2; Southern Hemisphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yung, Y. L.

2008-01-01

A principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to the Southern Hemisphere (SH) total column ozone following the method established for analyzing the data in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in a companion paper. The interannual variability (IAV) of extratropical O-3 in the SH is characterized by four main modes, which account for 75% of the total variance. The first two leading modes are approximately zonally symmetric and relate to the Southern Hemisphere annular mode and the quasi-biennial oscillation. The third and fourth modes exhibit wavenumber-1 structures. Contrary to the Northern Hemisphere, the third and fourth are nor related to stationary waves. Similar results obtained for the 30 100-hPa geopotential thickness.The decreasing O3 trend in the SH is captured in the first mode. The largest trend is at the South Pole, with value similar to-2 Dobson Units (DU)/yr. Both the spatial pattern and trends in the column ozone are captured by the Goddard Earth Observation System chemistry-climate model (GEOS-CCM) in the SH.

Spatial and Temporal Temperature trends on Iraq during 1980-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Timimi, Yassen K.; Al-Khudhairy, Aws A.

2018-05-01

Monthly Mean surface air temperature at 23 stations in Iraq were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation during 1980-2015. Seasonal and annual temperature was analyzed using Mann-Kendall test to detect the significant trend. The results of temporal analysis showed that during winter, spring, summer and Autumn have a positive trend in all the parts of Iraq. A tendency has also been observed towards warmer years, with significantly warmer summer and spring periods and slightly warmer autumn and winter, the highest increase is (3.5)°C in Basrah during the summer. The results of spatial analyze using the ArcGIS showed that the seasonal temperature can be divided into two or three distinct areas with high temperature in the south and decreasing towards north, where the trend of spatial temperature were decreasing from south to the north in all the four seasons.

Spatial Variability of Snowpack Properties On Small Slopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pielmeier, C.; Kronholm, K.; Schneebeli, M.; Schweizer, J.

The spatial variability of alpine snowpacks is created by a variety of parameters like deposition, wind erosion, sublimation, melting, temperature, radiation and metamor- phism of the snow. Spatial variability is thought to strongly control the avalanche initi- ation and failure propagation processes. Local snowpack measurements are currently the basis for avalanche warning services and there exist contradicting hypotheses about the spatial continuity of avalanche active snow layers and interfaces. Very little about the spatial variability of the snowpack is known so far, therefore we have devel- oped a systematic and objective method to measure the spatial variability of snowpack properties, layering and its relation to stability. For a complete coverage, the analysis of the spatial variability has to entail all scales from mm to km. In this study the small to medium scale spatial variability is investigated, i.e. the range from centimeters to tenths of meters. During the winter 2000/2001 we took systematic measurements in lines and grids on a flat snow test field with grid distances from 5 cm to 0.5 m. Fur- thermore, we measured systematic grids with grid distances between 0.5 m and 2 m in undisturbed flat fields and on small slopes above the tree line at the Choerbschhorn, in the region of Davos, Switzerland. On 13 days we measured the spatial pattern of the snowpack stratigraphy with more than 110 snow micro penetrometer measure- ments at slopes and flat fields. Within this measuring grid we placed 1 rutschblock and 12 stuffblock tests to measure the stability of the snowpack. With the large num- ber of measurements we are able to use geostatistical methods to analyse the spatial variability of the snowpack. Typical correlation lengths are calculated from semivari- ograms. Discerning the systematic trends from random spatial variability is analysed using statistical models. Scale dependencies are shown and recurring scaling patterns are outlined. The importance of the small and medium scale spatial variability for the larger (kilometer) scale spatial variability as well as for the avalanche formation are discussed. Finally, an outlook on spatial models for the snowpack variability is given.

Advancements in medium and high resolution Earth observation for land-surface imaging: Evolutions, future trends and contributions to sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouma, Yashon O.

2016-01-01

Technologies for imaging the surface of the Earth, through satellite based Earth observations (EO) have enormously evolved over the past 50 years. The trends are likely to evolve further as the user community increases and their awareness and demands for EO data also increases. In this review paper, a development trend on EO imaging systems is presented with the objective of deriving the evolving patterns for the EO user community. From the review and analysis of medium-to-high resolution EO-based land-surface sensor missions, it is observed that there is a predictive pattern in the EO evolution trends such that every 10-15 years, more sophisticated EO imaging systems with application specific capabilities are seen to emerge. Such new systems, as determined in this review, are likely to comprise of agile and small payload-mass EO land surface imaging satellites with the ability for high velocity data transmission and huge volumes of spatial, spectral, temporal and radiometric resolution data. This availability of data will magnify the phenomenon of ;Big Data; in Earth observation. Because of the ;Big Data; issue, new computing and processing platforms such as telegeoprocessing and grid-computing are expected to be incorporated in EO data processing and distribution networks. In general, it is observed that the demand for EO is growing exponentially as the application and cost-benefits are being recognized in support of resource management.

Fractal regional myocardial blood flows pattern according to metabolism, not vascular anatomy

PubMed Central

Yipintsoi, Tada; Kroll, Keith

2015-01-01

Regional myocardial blood flows are markedly heterogeneous. Fractal analysis shows strong near-neighbor correlation. In experiments to distinguish control by vascular anatomy vs. local vasomotion, coronary flows were increased in open-chest dogs by stimulating myocardial metabolism (catecholamines + atropine) with and without adenosine. During control states mean left ventricular (LV) myocardial blood flows (microspheres) were 0.5–1 ml·g−1·min−1 and increased to 2–3 ml·g−1·min−1 with catecholamine infusion and to ∼4 ml·g−1·min−1 with adenosine (Ado). Flow heterogeneity was similar in all states: relative dispersion (RD = SD/mean) was ∼25%, using LV pieces 0.1–0.2% of total. During catecholamine infusion local flows increased in proportion to the mean flows in 45% of the LV, “tracking” closely (increased proportionately to mean flow), while ∼40% trended toward the mean. Near-neighbor regional flows remained strongly spatially correlated, with fractal dimension D near 1.2 (Hurst coefficient 0.8). The spatial patterns remain similar at varied levels of metabolic stimulation inferring metabolic dominance. In contrast, adenosine vasodilation increased flows eightfold times control while destroying correlation with the control state. The Ado-induced spatial patterns differed from control but were self-consistent, inferring that with full vasodilation the relaxed arterial anatomy dominates the distribution. We conclude that vascular anatomy governs flow distributions during adenosine vasodilation but that metabolic vasoregulation dominates in normal physiological states. PMID:26589329

Fractal regional myocardial blood flows pattern according to metabolism, not vascular anatomy.

PubMed

Yipintsoi, Tada; Kroll, Keith; Bassingthwaighte, James B

2016-02-01

Regional myocardial blood flows are markedly heterogeneous. Fractal analysis shows strong near-neighbor correlation. In experiments to distinguish control by vascular anatomy vs. local vasomotion, coronary flows were increased in open-chest dogs by stimulating myocardial metabolism (catecholamines + atropine) with and without adenosine. During control states mean left ventricular (LV) myocardial blood flows (microspheres) were 0.5-1 ml·g(-1)·min(-1) and increased to 2-3 ml·g(-1)·min(-1) with catecholamine infusion and to ∼4 ml·g(-1)·min(-1) with adenosine (Ado). Flow heterogeneity was similar in all states: relative dispersion (RD = SD/mean) was ∼25%, using LV pieces 0.1-0.2% of total. During catecholamine infusion local flows increased in proportion to the mean flows in 45% of the LV, "tracking" closely (increased proportionately to mean flow), while ∼40% trended toward the mean. Near-neighbor regional flows remained strongly spatially correlated, with fractal dimension D near 1.2 (Hurst coefficient 0.8). The spatial patterns remain similar at varied levels of metabolic stimulation inferring metabolic dominance. In contrast, adenosine vasodilation increased flows eightfold times control while destroying correlation with the control state. The Ado-induced spatial patterns differed from control but were self-consistent, inferring that with full vasodilation the relaxed arterial anatomy dominates the distribution. We conclude that vascular anatomy governs flow distributions during adenosine vasodilation but that metabolic vasoregulation dominates in normal physiological states. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Spatial and temporal patterns in trace element deposition to lakes in the Athabasca oil sands region (Alberta, Canada)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooke, Colin A.; Kirk, Jane L.; Muir, Derek C. G.; Wiklund, Johan A.; Wang, Xiaowa; Gleason, Amber; Evans, Marlene S.

2017-12-01

The mining and processing of the Athabasca oil sands (Alberta, Canada) has been occurring for decades; however, a lack of consistent regional monitoring has obscured the long-term environmental impact. Here, we present sediment core results to reconstruct spatial and temporal patterns in trace element deposition to lakes in the Athabasca oil sands region. Early mining operations (during the 1970s and 1980s) led to elevated V and Pb inputs to lakes located <50 km from mining operations. Subsequent improvements to mining and upgrading technologies since the 1980s have reduced V and Pb loading to near background levels at many sites. In contrast, Hg deposition increased by a factor of ~3 to all 20 lakes over the 20th century, reflecting global-scale patterns in atmospheric Hg emissions. Base cation deposition (from fugitive dust emissions) has not measurably impacted regional lake sediments. Instead, results from a principal components analysis suggest that the presence of carbonate bedrock underlying lakes located close to development appears to exert a first-order control over lake sediment base cation concentrations and overall lake sediment geochemical composition. Trace element concentrations generally did not exceed Canadian sediment quality guidelines, and no spatial or temporal trends were observed in the frequency of guideline exceedence. Our results demonstrate that early mining efforts had an even greater impact on trace element cycling than has been appreciated previously, placing recent monitoring efforts in a critical long-term context.

[Dynamic changes of landscape pattern and hemeroby in Ximen Island wetland, Zhejiang Province, China].

PubMed

Xiao, Cui; Xie, Xue-Fen; Wu, Tao; Jiang, Guo-Jun; Bian, Hua-Jing; Xu, Wei

2014-11-01

Abstract: The hemeroby type classification system of Ximen Island wetland of Zhejiang Province was established based on the multiple datasets: SOPT-5 image data with a spatial resolution of 5 m in 2007 and 2010, its wetland land cover and land use status, the National Land Use Classification (on trail), and sea area use classification of marine industry standards as well as remote sensing data features. Meanwhile, the dynamic relationship between the landscape pattern and the degree of hemeroby in Ximen Island was investigated with the landscape indices and hemeroby index (HI) derived from the landscape pattern index and GIS spatial analysis. The results showed that the wetland landscape spatial heterogeneity, fragmentation and dominance index dropped, and the landscape shape index complexity was low. The human disturbance center developed from a dispersion type to a concentration type. The landscape type of the disturbance center was bare land and settlement. The HI rose up from the sea to the land. Settlement, wharf and traffic land had the highest HI. The HI of the mudflat cultivation, mudflats and raft-cultivation dramatically changed. Marine-terrestrial interlaced zone showed a low total HI with unstable characteristics. The number of patches declined of undisturbed, partially disturbed and completely disturbed landscapes. Mean patch areas of partially disturbed and completely disturbed landscapes increased, and that of the undisturbed decreased. Mean shape index of the undisturbed landscape decreased, while the partially disturbed and completely disturbed landscapes showed a trend of shape complication.

Temporal and spatial variabilities of atmospheric polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine (OC) pesticides and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Canadian Arctic: results from a decade of monitoring.

PubMed

Hung, H; Blanchard, P; Halsall, C J; Bidleman, T F; Stern, G A; Fellin, P; Muir, D C G; Barrie, L A; Jantunen, L M; Helm, P A; Ma, J; Konoplev, A

2005-04-15

The Northern Contaminants Program (NCP) baseline monitoring project was established in 1992 to monitor for persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Arctic air. Under this project, weekly samples of air were collected at four Canadian and two Russian arctic sites, namely Alert, Nunavut; Tagish, Yukon; Little Fox Lake, Yukon; Kinngait, Nunavut; Dunai Island, Russia and Amderma, Russia. Selected POPs, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine (OC) pesticides, were analyzed in both the gas and particulate phases. This paper summarizes results obtained from this project in the past 5 years. Temporal trends were developed for atmospheric PCBs and OCs observed at Alert using a digital filtration (DF) technique. It was found that trends developed with 5 years of data (1993-1997) did not differ significantly from those determined with 7 years of data (1993-1999). This implies that with the DF technique, long-term trends can still be developed with less than 10 years of data. An acceleration in decline of OC and PCB air concentrations was noted in 1999 for some compounds, although the reason is unknown. Monitoring efforts must continue to assess the effect of this decline on the long-term trends of POPs in the Canadian Arctic. Occasional high trans-/cis-chlordane ratios and heptachlor air concentrations measured at Alert between 1995 and 1997 suggests sporadic fresh usage of chlordane-based pesticides. However, significant decreasing trends of chlordanes along with their chemical signatures has provided evidence that emission of old soil residues is replacing new usage as an important source to the atmosphere. Measurements of OC air concentrations conducted at Kinngait in 1994-1995 and 2000-2001 indicated faster OC removal at this location than at Alert. This may be attributed to the proximity of Kinngait to temperate regions where both biotic and abiotic degradation rates are faster. The PAH concentrations observed at Alert mimic those at mid-latitudes and are consistent with long-range transport to the Arctic, particularly for the lighter PAHs. A decline in particulate PAH was observed, similar to atmospheric sulphate aerosol and can be attributed to the collapse of industrial activity in the former Soviet Union between 1991 and 1995. Spatial comparisons of OC seasonality at Alert, Tagish, Dunai and Kinngait show elevated air concentrations of some compounds in spring. However, elevated spring concentrations were observed for different compounds at different sites. Potential causes are discussed. Further investigation in the atmospheric flow pattern in spring which is responsible for the transport of POPs into the Arctic is required. OC and PCB air concentrations at Alert were found to be influenced by two climate variation patterns, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern. Planetary atmospheric patterns must be taken into account in the global prediction and modelling of POPs in the future.

A 10-year spatial and temporal trend of sulfate across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malm, William C.; Schichtel, Bret A.; Ames, Rodger B.; Gebhart, Kristi A.

2002-11-01

Legislative and regulatory mandates have resulted in reduced sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions in both the eastern and western United States with anticipation that concurrent levels of ambient SO2, SO42-, and rainwater acidity would decrease. This paper examines spatial and temporal trends in ambient SO42- concentration from 1988 to 1999, SO2 emissions from 1990 to 1999, and the relationship between these two variables. The SO42- concentration data came from combining data from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) and the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet). Over 70 sites spread across the continental United States are considered in this analysis. From a spatial perspective, the 90th percentile summer sulfate concentrations are highest along the Ohio River Valley and in central Tennessee where the emission density of SO2 is greatest. These concentrations are a factor of 2 greater than the Northeast, northern Michigan, and coastal areas of the Southeast and about a factor of 15 greater than the central western United States. In the East, the largest SO42- decreases in the 80th percentile concentrations occurred north of the Ohio River Valley, while most monitoring sites south of Kentucky and Virginia showed increasing and decreasing trends that were not statistically significant. Big Bend National Park, Texas, Cranberry, North Carolina, and Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, are the only areas that show a statistically significant increase in SO42- mass concentrations. The 1990-1999 annual 80th percentile SO42- time series were compared to the annual SO2 emissions over four broad United States regions. Each region had a unique time series pattern with the SO42- concentrations and SO2 emissions closely tracking each other over the 10-year period. Both the SO42- and SO2 emissions decreased in the Northeast (28%) and the West (15%), while there was little change in the Southeast and a 15% increase over Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado.

Comparison of AIRS Version-6 OLR Climatologies and Anomaly Time Series with Those of CERES and MERRA-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Lee, Jae; Iredell, Lena

2016-01-01

RCs of AIRS and MERRA-2 500 mb specific humidity agree very well in terms of spatial patterns, but MERRA-2 ARCs are larger in magnitude and show a spurious moistening globally and over Central Africa. AIRS and MERRA-2 fractional cloud cover ARCs agree less well with each other. MERRA-2 shows a spurious global mean increase in cloud cover that is not found in AIRS, including a large spurious cloud increase in Central Africa. AIRS and MERRA-2 ARCs of surface skin and surface air temperatures are all similar to each other in patterns. AIRS shows a small global warming over the 13 year period, while MERRA-2 shows a small global cooling. This difference results primarily from spurious MERRA-2 temperature trends at high latitudes and over Central Africa. These differences all contribute to the spurious negative global MERRA-2 OLR trend. AIRS Version-6 confirms that 2015 is the warmest year on record and that the Earth's surface is continuing to warm.

Sea-level variability in the Common Era along the Atlantic coast of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kemp, A.; Kopp, R. E.; Horton, B.; Little, C. M.; Engelhart, S. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.

2017-12-01

Common Era relative sea-level trends on the margins of the North Atlantic Ocean vary through time and across space as a result of simultaneous global (basin-wide)-, regional- (linear and non-linear), and local-scale processes. A growing suite of relative sea-level reconstructions derived from dated salt-marsh (and mangrove) sediment on the Atlantic coast of North America provides an opportunity to quantify the contributions from several physical processes to Common Era sea-level trends. In particular, this coastline is susceptible to relative sea-level changes caused by melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and redistribution of existing ocean mass on timescales of days to centuries by evolving patterns and strengths of atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Using a case study from Newfoundland, Canada, we demonstrate how high-resolution (decadal- and decimeter-scale) relative sea level reconstructions are produced from sequences of salt-marsh sediment that were deposited under conditions of long-term sea-level rise. We use an expanded database of Common Era relative sea-level reconstructions from the Atlantic coast of North America that spans locations from Newfoundland to the southern Florida to identify spatial and temporal patterns of change. A spatio-temporal statistical model enables us to decompose each reconstruction (with uncertainty) into contributions from global-, regional- (linear and non-linear), and local-scale processes. This analysis shows that spatially-variable glacio-isostatic adjustment was the primary driver of sea-level change. The global signal is dominated by the onset of anthropogenic sea-level rise in the late 19th century, which caused the 20th century to experience a faster rate of rise than any of the preceding 26 centuries. Differentiating between regional non-linear and local-scale processes is a challenging using an inherently sparse network of reconstructions. However, we show that sites south of Cape Hatteras have sea-level histories distinct to those from more northward locations and propose that this spatial pattern is best explained by dynamic processes that could include century-scale NAO-driven circulation changes. Complementary paleoenvironmental reconstructions from diverse proxies support this interpretation.

Developmental Trends for Object and Spatial Working Memory: A Psychophysiological Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Leijenhorst, Linda; Crone, Eveline A.; Van der Molen, Maurits W.

2007-01-01

This study examined developmental trends in object and spatial working memory (WM) using heart rate (HR) to provide an index of covert cognitive processes. Participants in 4 age groups (6-7, 9-10, 11-12, 18-26, n=20 each) performed object and spatial WM tasks, in which each trial was followed by feedback. Spatial WM task performance reached adult…

Decoding the spatial signatures of multi-scale climate variability - a climate network perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, R. V.; Jajcay, N.; Wiedermann, M.; Ekhtiari, N.; Palus, M.

2017-12-01

During the last years, the application of complex networks as a versatile tool for analyzing complex spatio-temporal data has gained increasing interest. Establishing this approach as a new paradigm in climatology has already provided valuable insights into key spatio-temporal climate variability patterns across scales, including novel perspectives on the dynamics of the El Nino Southern Oscillation or the emergence of extreme precipitation patterns in monsoonal regions. In this work, we report first attempts to employ network analysis for disentangling multi-scale climate variability. Specifically, we introduce the concept of scale-specific climate networks, which comprises a sequence of networks representing the statistical association structure between variations at distinct time scales. For this purpose, we consider global surface air temperature reanalysis data and subject the corresponding time series at each grid point to a complex-valued continuous wavelet transform. From this time-scale decomposition, we obtain three types of signals per grid point and scale - amplitude, phase and reconstructed signal, the statistical similarity of which is then represented by three complex networks associated with each scale. We provide a detailed analysis of the resulting connectivity patterns reflecting the spatial organization of climate variability at each chosen time-scale. Global network characteristics like transitivity or network entropy are shown to provide a new view on the (global average) relevance of different time scales in climate dynamics. Beyond expected trends originating from the increasing smoothness of fluctuations at longer scales, network-based statistics reveal different degrees of fragmentation of spatial co-variability patterns at different scales and zonal shifts among the key players of climate variability from tropically to extra-tropically dominated patterns when moving from inter-annual to decadal scales and beyond. The obtained results demonstrate the potential usefulness of systematically exploiting scale-specific climate networks, whose general patterns are in line with existing climatological knowledge, but provide vast opportunities for further quantifications at local, regional and global scales that are yet to be explored.

Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

2012-04-01

The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

Statistical analyses of the results of 25 years of beach litter surveys on the south-eastern North Sea coast.

PubMed

Schulz, Marcus; Clemens, Thomas; Förster, Harald; Harder, Thorsten; Fleet, David; Gaus, Silvia; Grave, Christel; Flegel, Imme; Schrey, Eckart; Hartwig, Eike

2015-08-01

In the North Sea, the amount of litter present in the marine environment represents a severe environmental problem. In order to assess the magnitude of the problem and measure changes in abundance, the results of two beach litter monitoring programmes were compared and analysed for long-term trends applying multivariate techniques. Total beach litter pollution was persistently high. Spatial differences in litter abundance made it difficult to identify long-term trends: Partly more than 8000 litter items year(-1) were recorded on a 100 m long survey site on the island of Scharhörn, while the survey site on the beach on the island of Amrum revealed abundances lower by two orders of magnitude. Beach litter was dominated by plastic with mean proportions of 52%-91% of total beach litter. Non-parametric time series analyses detected many significant trends, which, however, did not show any systematic spatial patterns. Cluster analyses partly led to groupings of beaches according to their expositions to sources of litter, wind and currents. Surveys in short intervals of one to two weeks were found to give higher annual sums of beach litter than the quarterly surveys of the OSPAR method. Surveys at regular intervals of four weeks to five months would make monitoring results more reliable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal and spatial trends in nutrient and sediment loading to Lake Tahoe, California-Nevada, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coats, Robert; Lewis, Jack; Alvarez, Nancy L.; Arneson, Patricia

2016-01-01

Since 1980, the Lake Tahoe Interagency Monitoring Program (LTIMP) has provided stream-discharge and water quality data—nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and suspended sediment—at more than 20 stations in Lake Tahoe Basin streams. To characterize the temporal and spatial patterns in nutrient and sediment loading to the lake, and improve the usefulness of the program and the existing database, we have (1) identified and corrected for sources of bias in the water quality database; (2) generated synthetic datasets for sediments and nutrients, and resampled to compare the accuracy and precision of different load calculation models; (3) using the best models, recalculated total annual loads over the period of record; (4) regressed total loads against total annual and annual maximum daily discharge, and tested for time trends in the residuals; (5) compared loads for different forms of N and P; and (6) tested constituent loads against land use-land cover (LULC) variables using multiple regression. The results show (1) N and P loads are dominated by organic N and particulate P; (2) there are significant long-term downward trends in some constituent loads of some streams; and (3) anthropogenic impervious surface is the most important LULC variable influencing water quality in basin streams. Many of our recommendations for changes in water quality monitoring and load calculation methods have been adopted by the LTIMP.

On the regional characteristics of past and future sea-level change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timmermann, A.; McGregor, S.

2010-12-01

Global sea-level rise due to the thermal expansion of the warming oceans and freshwater input from melting glaciers and ice-sheets is threatening to inundate low-lying islands and coast-lines worldwide. At present global mean sea level rises at 3.1 ± 0.7 mm/yr with an accelerating tendency. However, the magnitude of recent decadal sea-level trends varies greatly spatially attaining values of up to 10 mm/yr in some areas of the western tropical Pacific. Identifying the causes of recent regional sea-level trends and understanding the patterns of future projected sea-level change is of crucial importance. Using a wind-forced simplified dynamical ocean model, we show that the regional features of recent decadal and multidecadal sea-level trends in the tropical Indo-Pacific can be attributed to changes in the prevailing wind-regimes. Furthermore it is demonstrated that within an ensemble of ten state-of-the art coupled general circulation models, forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the next century, wind-induced re-distributions of upper-ocean water play a key role in establishing the spatial characteristics of projected regional sea-level rise. Wind-related changes in near- surface mass and heat convergence near the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia oppose, but can not cancel the regional signal of global mean sea-level rise.

Spatiotemporal variations of potential evapotranspiration and aridity index in relation to influencing factors over Southwest China during 1960-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yifei; Zou, Xinqing; Cao, Liguo; Yao, Yulong; Fu, Guanghe

2017-07-01

This study investigated the spatial-temporal patterns and trends of potential evapotranspiration (ET0) and aridity index (AI) over Southwest China during 1960-2013 based on daily temperature, precipitation, wind speed, sunshine duration, total solar radiation, and relative humidity data from 108 meteorological stations. The Penman-Monteith model, Mann-Kendall (M-K) test, moving t test, and Morlet wavelet method were used. The results indicated that ET0 and AI across the region displayed decreasing trends, but the former was significant. After 2000, regionally average trends in ET0 and AI increased rapidly, indicating that droughts increased over Southwest China in recent years. Spatially, the changes of ET0 and AI were dissimilar and not clustered, either. Temporally, both ET0 and AI displayed obvious abrupt change points over different timescales and that of AI was during the winter monsoon period. Significant periodic variations with periods of 27, 13, and 5 years were found in ET0, but only of 13 and 5 years existed in AI. Correlation analysis revealed that the sunshine duration and wind speed were the dominant factors affecting ET0 and that AI showed strong negative correlation with precipitation. The findings of this study enhance the understanding of the relationship between climate change and drought in Southwest China, while the mechanism controlling the variation in drought requires further study.

Deriving spatial trends of air pollution at a neighborhood-scale through mobile monitoring

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract: Measuring air pollution in real-time using an instrumented vehicle platform has been an emerging strategy to resolve air pollution trends at a very fine spatial scale (10s of meters). Achieving second-by-second data representative of urban air quality trends requires a...

Assessment of the magnitude and recent trends in satellite-derived ground-level nitrogen dioxide over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharol, S. K.; Martin, R. V.; Philip, S.; Boys, B.; Lamsal, L. N.; Jerrett, M.; Brauer, M.; Crouse, D. L.; McLinden, C.; Burnett, R. T.

2015-10-01

We estimate ground-level nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations from the OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) over North America for the period 2005-2012. A chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) is used to account for effects of the NO2 profile on the column retrieval, and to relate OMI NO2 columns to ground-level concentrations. The magnitude of the period-mean OMI-derived NO2 concentrations is evaluated versus in situ measurements from air quality networks yielding a significant spatial correlation (r = 0.81) but OMI-derived values are lower with a slope of 0.4. Comparison of the in situ concentrations versus spatially resolved concentrations estimated from land use regression models reveals that this difference partially arises from representativeness difference due to preferential placement of in situ monitors at locations with enhanced NO2, coupled with the OMI horizontal resolution. In situ observations provide information about local concentrations while OMI offers area-averaged information. The remaining difference is less readily explained and appears to include a combination of the effects of local unresolved geophysical processes affecting both the NO2 retrieval and the vertical profile used to relate the column to ground level. We also evaluate trends over North America from OMI and in situ measurements for the period of 2005-2012. OMI derived ground-level NO2 well reproduces the spatial pattern of the in situ trends (r = 0.77) and the slope of 0.4 versus the trend from in situ monitors is consistent with the slope versus mean concentrations. Absolute regional trends inferred from in situ measurements alone may overestimate area average changes. Nonetheless coincidently sampled ground-level NO2 concentrations from OMI and in situ measurements for 2005-2012 exhibit similar relative decreases over Eastern (-6.5 ± 2.0%/yr, -7.1 ± 1.3%/yr), Western (-4.5 ± 1.1%/yr, -6.5 ± 0.7%/yr) and Central (-3.3 ± 2.3%/yr, -4.1 ± 0.8%/yr) North America.

Mistletoe effects on Scots pine decline following drought events: insights from within-tree spatial patterns, growth and carbohydrates.

PubMed

Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Linares, Juan Carlos; Camarero, J Julio

2012-05-01

Forest decline has been attributed to the interaction of several stressors including biotic factors such as mistletoes and climate-induced drought stress. However, few data exist on how mistletoes are spatially arranged within trees and how this spatial pattern is related to changes in radial growth, responses to drought stress and carbon use. We used dendrochronology to quantify how mistletoe (Viscum album L.) infestation and drought stress affected long-term growth patterns in Pinus sylvestris L. at different heights. Basal area increment (BAI) trends and comparisons between trees of three different infestation degrees (without mistletoe, ID1; moderately infested trees, ID2; and severely infested trees, ID3) were performed using linear mixed-effects models. To identify the main climatic drivers of tree growth tree-ring widths were converted into indexed chronologies and related to climate data using correlation functions. We performed spatial analyses of the 3D distribution of mistletoe individuals and their ages within the crowns of three severely infested pines to describe their patterns. Lastly, we quantified carbohydrate and nitrogen concentrations in needles and sapwood of branches from severely infested trees and from trees without mistletoe. Mistletoe individuals formed strongly clustered groups of similar age within tree crowns and their age increased towards the crown apex. Mistletoe infestation negatively impacted growth but this effect was stronger near the tree apex than in the rest of sampled heights, causing an average loss of 64% in BAI (loss of BAI was ∼51% at 1.3 m or near the tree base). We found that BAI of severely infested trees and moderately or non-infested trees diverged since 2001 and such divergence was magnified by drought. Infested trees had lower concentrations of soluble sugars in their needles than non-infested ones. We conclude that mistletoe infestation causes growth decline and increases the sensitivity of trees to drought stress.

Spatio-temporal Analysis of African Swine Fever in Sardinia (2012-2014): Trends in Domestic Pigs and Wild Boar.

PubMed

Iglesias, I; Rodríguez, A; Feliziani, F; Rolesu, S; de la Torre, A

2017-04-01

African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable viral disease affecting domestic pigs and wild boars that has been endemic in Sardinia since 1978. Several risk factors complicate the control of ASF in Sardinia: generally poor level of biosecurity, traditional breeding practices, illegal behaviour in movements and feeding of pigs, and sporadic occurrence of long-term carriers. A previous study describes the disease in Sardinia during 1978-2013. The aim of this study was to gain more in-depth knowledge of the spatio-temporal pattern of ASF in Sardinia during 2012 to May 2014, comparing patterns of occurrence in domestic pigs and wild boar and identifying areas of local transmission. African swine fever notifications were studied considering seasonality, spatial autocorrelation, spatial point pattern and spatio-temporal clusters. Results showed differences in temporal and spatial pattern of wild boar and domestic pig notifications. The peak in wild boar notifications (October 2013 to February 2014) occurred six months after than in domestic pig (May to early summer 2013). Notifications of cases in both host species tended to be clustered, with a maximum significant distance of spatial association of 15 and 25 km in domestic pigs and wild boars, respectively. Five clusters for local ASF transmission were identified for domestic pigs, with a mean radius and duration of 4 km (3-9 km) and 38 days (6-55 days), respectively. Any wild boar clusters were found. The apparently secondary role of wild boar in ASF spread in Sardinia could be explained by certain socio-economic factors (illegal free-range pig breeding or the mingling of herds. The lack of effectiveness of previous surveillance and control programmes reveals the necessity of employing a new approach). Results present here provide better knowledge of the dynamics of ASF in Sardinia, which could be used in a more comprehensive risk analysis necessary to introduce a new approach in the eradication strategy. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Spatial and temporal trends of selected trace elements in liver tissue from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Alaska, Canada and Greenland.

PubMed

Routti, Heli; Letcher, Robert J; Born, Erik W; Branigan, Marsha; Dietz, Rune; Evans, Thomas J; Fisk, Aaron T; Peacock, Elizabeth; Sonne, Christian

2011-08-01

Spatial trends and comparative changes in time of selected trace elements were studied in liver tissue from polar bears from ten different subpopulation locations in Alaska, Canadian Arctic and East Greenland. For nine of the trace elements (As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Mn, Pb, Rb, Se and Zn) spatial trends were investigated in 136 specimens sampled during 2005-2008 from bears from these ten subpopulations. Concentrations of Hg, Se and As were highest in the (northern and southern) Beaufort Sea area and lowest in (western and southern) Hudson Bay area and Chukchi/Bering Sea. In contrast, concentrations of Cd showed an increasing trend from east to west. Minor or no spatial trends were observed for Cu, Mn, Rb and Zn. Spatial trends were in agreement with previous studies, possibly explained by natural phenomena. To assess temporal changes of Cd, Hg, Se and Zn concentrations during the last decades, we compared our results to previously published data. These time comparisons suggested recent Hg increase in East Greenland polar bears. This may be related to Hg emissions and/or climate-induced changes in Hg cycles or changes in the polar bear food web related to global warming. Also, Hg:Se molar ratio has increased in East Greenland polar bears, which suggests there may be an increased risk for Hg(2+)-mediated toxicity. Since the underlying reasons for spatial trends or changes in time of trace elements in the Arctic are still largely unknown, future studies should focus on the role of changing climate and trace metal emissions on geographical and temporal trends of trace elements.

Spatial and temporal trends of selected trace elements in liver tissue from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Alaska, Canada and Greenland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Routti, H.; Letcher, R.J.; Born, E.W.; Branigan, M.; Dietz, R.; Evans, T.J.; Fisk, A.T.; Peacock, E.; Sonne, C.

2011-01-01

Spatial trends and comparative changes in time of selected trace elements were studied in liver tissue from polar bears from ten different subpopulation locations in Alaska, Canadian Arctic and East Greenland. For nine of the trace elements (As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Mn, Pb, Rb, Se and Zn) spatial trends were investigated in 136 specimens sampled during 2005-2008 from bears from these ten subpopulations. Concentrations of Hg, Se and As were highest in the (northern and southern) Beaufort Sea area and lowest in (western and southern) Hudson Bay area and Chukchi/Bering Sea. In contrast, concentrations of Cd showed an increasing trend from east to west. Minor or no spatial trends were observed for Cu, Mn, Rb and Zn. Spatial trends were in agreement with previous studies, possibly explained by natural phenomena. To assess temporal changes of Cd, Hg, Se and Zn concentrations during the last decades, we compared our results to previously published data. These time comparisons suggested recent Hg increase in East Greenland polar bears. This may be related to Hg emissions and/or climate-induced changes in Hg cycles or changes in the polar bear food web related to global warming. Also, Hg:Se molar ratio has increased in East Greenland polar bears, which suggests there may be an increased risk for Hg 2+-mediated toxicity. Since the underlying reasons for spatial trends or changes in time of trace elements in the Arctic are still largely unknown, future studies should focus on the role of changing climate and trace metal emissions on geographical and temporal trends of trace elements. ?? 2011 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

Spatial analysis on China's regional air pollutants and CO2 emissions: emission pattern and regional disparity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Liang; Liang, Hanwei

2014-08-01

China has suffered from serious air pollution and CO2 emission. Challenges of emission reduction policy not only come from technology advancement, but also generate from the fact that, China has pronounced disparity between regions, in geographical and socioeconomic. How to deal with regional disparity is important to achieve the reduction target effectively and efficiently. This research conducts a spatial analysis on the emission patterns of three air pollutants named SO2, NOx and PM2.5, and CO2, in China's 30 provinces, applied with spatial auto-correlation and multi regression modeling. We further analyze the regional disparity and inequity issues with the approach of Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient. Results highlight that: there is evident cluster effect for the regional air pollutants and CO2 emissions. While emission amount increases from western regions to eastern regions, the emission per GDP is in inverse trend. The Lorenz curve shows an even larger unequal distribution of GDP/emissions than GDP/capita in 30 regions. Certain middle and western regions suffers from a higher emission with lower GDP, which reveal the critical issue of emission leakage. Future policy making to address such regional disparity is critical so as to promote the emission control policy under the “equity and efficiency” principle.

Spatial variations of storm runoff pollution and their correlation with land-use in a rapidly urbanizing catchment in China.

PubMed

Qin, Hua-Peng; Khu, Soon-Thiam; Yu, Xiang-Ying

2010-09-15

The composition of land use for a rapidly urbanizing catchment is usually heterogeneous, and this may result in significant spatial variations of storm runoff pollution and increase the difficulties of water quality management. The Shiyan Reservoir catchment, a typical rapidly urbanizing area in China, is chosen as a study area, and temporary monitoring sites were set at the downstream of its 6 sub-catchments to synchronously measure rainfall, runoff and water quality during 4 storm events in 2007 and 2009. Due to relatively low frequency monitoring, the IHACRES and exponential pollutant wash-off simulation models are used to interpolate the measured data to compensate for data insufficiency. Three indicators, event pollutant loads per unit area (EPL), event mean concentration (EMC) and pollutant loads transported by the first 50% of runoff volume (FF50), were used to describe the runoff pollution for different pollutants in each sub-catchment during the storm events, and the correlations between runoff pollution spatial variations and land-use patterns were tested by Spearman's rank correlation analysis. The results indicated that similar spatial variation trends were found for different pollutants (EPL or EMC) in light storm events, which strongly correlate with the proportion of residential land use; however, they have different trends in heavy storm events, which correlate with not only the residential land use, but also agricultural and bare land use. And some pairs of pollutants (such as COD/BOD, NH(3)-N/TN) might have the similar source because they have strong or moderate positive spatial correlation. Moreover, the first flush intensity (FF50) varies with impervious land areas and different interception ratio of initial storm runoff volume should be adopted in different sub-catchments. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary analysis of groundwater flow: Application of multivariate statistical analysis to hydrochemical data in the Densu Basin, Ghana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yidana, Sandow Mark; Bawoyobie, Patrick; Sakyi, Patrick; Fynn, Obed Fiifi

2018-02-01

An evolutionary trend has been postulated through the analysis of hydrochemical data of a crystalline rock aquifer system in the Densu Basin, Southern Ghana. Hydrochemcial data from 63 groundwater samples, taken from two main groundwater outlets (Boreholes and hand dug wells) were used to postulate an evolutionary theory for the basin. Sequential factor and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to disintegrate the data into three factors and five clusters (spatial associations). These were used to characterize the controls on groundwater hydrochemistry and its evolution in the terrain. The dissolution of soluble salts and cation exchange processes are the dominant processes controlling groundwater hydrochemistry in the terrain. The trend of evolution of this set of processes follows the pattern of groundwater flow predicted by a calibrated transient groundwater model in the area. The data suggest that anthropogenic activities represent the second most important process in the hydrochemistry. Silicate mineral weathering is the third most important set of processes. Groundwater associations resulting from Q-mode hierarchical cluster analysis indicate an evolutionary pattern consistent with the general groundwater flow pattern in the basin. These key findings are at variance with results of previous investigations and indicate that when carefully done, groundwater hydrochemical data can be very useful for conceptualizing groundwater flow in basins.

Temporal and spatial variation of heat-related illness using 911 medical dispatch data.

PubMed

Bassil, Kate L; Cole, Donald C; Moineddin, Rahim; Craig, Alan M; Lou, W Y Wendy; Schwartz, Brian; Rea, Elizabeth

2009-07-01

The adverse effect of hot weather on health in urban communities is of increasing public health concern, particularly given trends in climate change. To demonstrate the potential public health applications of monitoring 911 medical dispatch data for heat-related illness (HRI), using historical data for the summer periods (June 1-August 31) during 2002-2005 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The temporal distribution of the medical dispatch calls was described in relation to a current early warning system and emergency department data from the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS). Geospatial methods were used to map the percentage of heat-related calls in each Toronto neighborhood over the study period. The temporal pattern of 911 calls for HRI was similar, and sometimes peaked earlier, than current heat health warning systems (HHWS). The pattern of calls was similar to NACRS HRI visits, with the exception of 2005 where 911 calls peaked earlier. Areas of the city with a relatively higher burden of HRI included low income inner-city neighborhoods, areas with high rates of street-involved individuals, and areas along the waterfront which include summer outdoor recreational activities. Identifying the temporal trends and geospatial patterns of these important environmental health events has the potential to direct targeted public health interventions to mitigate associated morbidity and mortality.

Dynamics of vegetation autumn phenology and its response to multiple environmental factors from 1982 to 2012 on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in China.

PubMed

Li, Peng; Peng, Changhui; Wang, Meng; Luo, Yunpeng; Li, Mingxu; Zhang, Kerou; Zhang, Dingling; Zhu, Qiuan

2018-05-11

Autumn phenological shifts induced by environmental change have resulted in substantial impacts on ecosystem processes. However, autumn phenology and its multiple related controlling factors have not been well studied. In this study, the spatiotemporal patterns of the end date of the vegetation growing season (EGS) and their multiple controls (climate change, summer vegetation growth and human activities) over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) were investigated using the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) based on GIMMS3g datasets during 1982-2012. The results showed that there was no significant temporal trend in the EGS during the period of 1982-2012. Spatially, there was a notable advancing trend in the southwest region and a delayed trend in the other regions of the QTP during 1982-2000, and this spatial trend was reversed during 2001-2012. We found average temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration of autumn exerted positive effects on EGS on the QTP, while average temperature and sunshine duration of summer exerted negative effects. Our results indicated that vegetation growth in summer tends to induce an earlier EGS in alpine vegetation, whereas summer vegetation degradation could delay the EGS on the QTP. In contrast, moderate grazing delays vegetation browning in autumn, while overgrazing leads to advancement of grass senescence. This study improves our understanding of how multiple environmental variables jointly affect autumn phenology and highlights the importance of biotic controls for autumn phenology on the QTP. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relationship of opioid prescription sales and overdoses, North Carolina.

PubMed

Modarai, F; Mack, K; Hicks, P; Benoit, S; Park, S; Jones, C; Proescholdbell, S; Ising, A; Paulozzi, L

2013-09-01

In the United States, fatal drug overdoses have tripled since 1991. This escalation in deaths is believed to be driven primarily by prescription opioid medications. This investigation compared trends and patterns in sales of opioids, opioid drug overdoses treated in emergency departments (EDs), and unintentional overdose deaths in North Carolina (NC). Our ecological study compared rates of opioid sales, opioid related ED overdoses, and unintentional drug overdose deaths in NC. Annual sales data, provided by the Drug Enforcement Administration, for select opioids were converted into morphine equivalents and aggregated by zip code. These opioid drug sales rates were trended from 1997 to 2010. In addition, opioid sales were correlated and compared to opioid related ED visits, which came from a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention syndromic surveillance system, and unintentional overdose deaths, which came from NC Vital Statistics, from 2008 to 2010. Finally, spatial cluster analysis was performed and rates were mapped by zip code in 2010. Opioid sales increased substantially from 1997 to 2010. From 2008 to 2010, the quarterly rates of opioid drug overdoses treated in EDs and opioid sales correlated (r=0.68, p=0.02). Specific regions of the state, particularly in the southern and western corners, had both high rates of prescription opioid sales and overdoses. Temporal trends in sales of prescription opioids correlate with trends in opioid related ED visits. The spatial correlation of opioid sales with ED visit rates shows that opioid sales data may be a timely way to identify high-risk communities in the absence of timely ED data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling evapotranspiration over China's landmass from 1979-2012 using three surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Shaobo; Chen, Baozhang; Zhang, Huifang; Lin, Xiaofeng

2017-04-01

Land surface models (LSMs) are useful tools to estimate land evapotranspiration at a grid scale and for a long-term applications. Here, the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4.0), Dynamic Land Model (DLM) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model were driven with observation-based forcing data sets, and a multiple LSM ensemble-averaged evapotranspiration (ET) product (LSMs-ET) was developed and its spatial-temporal variations were analyzed for the China landmass over the period 1979-2012. Evaluations against measurements from nine flux towers at site scale and surface water budget based ET at regional scale showed that the LSMs-ET had good performance in most areas of China's landmass. The inter-comparisons between the ET estimates and the independent ET products from remote sensing and upscaling methods suggested that there were a fairly consistent patterns between each data sets. The LSMs-ET produced a mean annual ET of 351.24±10.7 mm yr-1 over 1979-2012, and its spatial-temporal variation analyses showed that (i) there was an overall significant ET increasing trend, with a value of 0.72 mm yr-1 (p < 0.01); (ii) 36.01% of Chinese land had significant increasing trends, ranging from 1 to 9 mm yr-1, while only 6.41% of the area showed significant decreasing trends, ranging from -6.28 to -0.08 mm yr-1. Analyses of ET variations in each climate region clearly showed that the Tibetan Plateau areas were the main contributors to the overall increasing ET trends of China.

Long-term trends and spatial patterns of PM2.5-induced premature mortality in South and Southeast Asia from 1999 to 2014.

PubMed

Shi, Yusheng; Matsunaga, Tsuneo; Yamaguchi, Yasushi; Zhao, Aimei; Li, Zhengqiang; Gu, Xingfa

2018-08-01

Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) poses a potential threat to human health, including premature mortality under long-term exposure. Based on a long-term series of high-resolution (0.01°×0.01°) satellite-retrieved PM 2.5 concentrations, this study estimated the premature mortality attributable to PM 2.5 in South and Southeast Asia (SSEA) from 1999 to 2014. Then, the long-term trends and spatial characteristics of PM 2.5 -induced premature deaths (1999-2014) were analyzed using trend analyses and standard deviation ellipses. Results showed the estimated number of PM 2.5 -induced average annual premature deaths in SSEA was 1,447,000. The numbers increased from 1,179,400 in 1999 to 1,724,900 in 2014, with a growth rate of 38% and net increase of 545,500. Stroke and ischemic heart disease were the two principal contributors, accounting for 39% and 35% of the total, respectively. High values were concentrated in North India, Bangladesh, East Pakistan, and some metropolitan areas of Southeast Asia. An estimated 991,600 deaths in India was quantified (i.e., ~69% of the total premature deaths in SSEA). The long-term trends (1999-2014) of PM 2.5 -related premature mortality exhibited consistent incremental tendencies in all countries except Sri Lanka. The findings of this study suggest that strict controls of PM 2.5 concentrations in SSEA are urgently required. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nonuniform ocean acidification and attenuation of the ocean carbon sink

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fassbender, Andrea J.; Sabine, Christopher L.; Palevsky, Hilary I.

2017-08-01

Surface ocean carbon chemistry is changing rapidly. Partial pressures of carbon dioxide gas (pCO2) are rising, pH levels are declining, and the ocean's buffer capacity is eroding. Regional differences in short-term pH trends primarily have been attributed to physical and biological processes; however, heterogeneous seawater carbonate chemistry may also be playing an important role. Here we use Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas Version 4 data to develop 12 month gridded climatologies of carbonate system variables and explore the coherent spatial patterns of ocean acidification and attenuation in the ocean carbon sink caused by rising atmospheric pCO2. High-latitude regions exhibit the highest pH and buffer capacity sensitivities to pCO2 increases, while the equatorial Pacific is uniquely insensitive due to a newly defined aqueous CO2 concentration effect. Importantly, dissimilar regional pH trends do not necessarily equate to dissimilar acidity ([H+]) trends, indicating that [H+] is a more useful metric of acidification.

Half a century of changing mercury levels in Swedish freshwater fish.

PubMed

Akerblom, Staffan; Bignert, Anders; Meili, Markus; Sonesten, Lars; Sundbom, Marcus

2014-01-01

The variability of mercury (Hg) levels in Swedish freshwater fish during almost 50 years was assessed based on a compilation of 44 927 observations from 2881 waters. To obtain comparable values, individual Hg concentrations of fish from any species and of any size were normalized to correspond to a standard 1-kg pike [median: 0.69 mg kg⁻¹ wet weight (ww), mean ± SD: 0.84 ± 0.67 mg kg⁻¹ ww]. The EU Environmental Quality Standard of 0.02 mg kg⁻¹ was exceeded in all waters, while the guideline set by FAO/WHO for Hg levels in fish used for human consumption (0.5-1.0 mg kg⁻¹) was exceeded in 52.5 % of Swedish waters after 2000. Different trend analysis approaches indicated an overall long-term decline of at least 20 % during 1965-2012 but trends did not follow any consistent regional pattern. During the latest decade (2003-2012), however, a spatial gradient has emerged with decreasing trends predominating in southwestern Sweden.

Implementation of a Time Series Analysis for the Assessment of the Role of Climate Variability in a Post-Disturbance Savanna System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibbes, C.; Southworth, J.; Waylen, P. R.

2013-05-01

How do climate variability and climate change influence vegetation cover and vegetation change in savannas? A landscape scale investigation of the effect of changes in precipitation on vegetation is undertaken through the employment of a time series analysis. The multi-national study region is located within the Kavango-Zambezi region, and is delineated by the Okavango, Kwando, and Zambezi watersheds. A mean-variance time-series analysis quantifies vegetation dynamics and characterizes vegetation response to climate. The spatially explicit approach used to quantify the persistence of vegetation productivity permits the extraction of information regarding long term climate-landscape dynamics. Results show a pattern of reduced mean annual precipitation and increased precipitation variability across key social and ecological areas within the study region. Despite decreased mean annual precipitation since the mid to late 1970's vegetation trends predominantly indicate increasing biomass. The limited areas which have diminished vegetative cover relate to specific vegetation types, and are associated with declines in precipitation variability. Results indicate that in addition to short term changes in vegetation cover, long term trends in productive biomass are apparent, relate to spatial differences in precipitation variability, and potentially represent shifts vegetation composition. This work highlights the importance of time-series analyses for examining climate-vegetation linkages in a spatially explicit manner within a highly vulnerable region of the world.

Isotopic constraints on global atmospheric methane sources and sinks: a critical assessment of recent findings and new data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwietzke, S.; Sherwood, O.; Michel, S. E.; Bruhwiler, L.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Tans, P. P.

2017-12-01

Methane isotopic data have increasingly been used in recent studies to help constrain global atmospheric methane sources and sinks. The added scientific contributions to this field include (i) careful comparisons and merging of atmospheric isotope measurement datasets to increase spatial coverage, (ii) in-depth analyses of observed isotopic spatial gradients and seasonal patterns, and (iii) improved datasets of isotopic source signatures. Different interpretations have been made regarding the utility of the isotopic data on the diagnosis of methane sources and sinks. Some studies have found isotopic evidence of a largely microbial source causing the renewed growth in global atmospheric methane since 2007, and underestimated global fossil fuel methane emissions compared to most previous studies. However, other studies have challenged these conclusions by pointing out substantial spatial variability in isotopic source signatures as well as open questions in atmospheric sinks and biomass burning trends. This presentation will review and contrast the main arguments and evidence for the different conclusions. The analysis will distinguish among the different research objectives including (i) global methane budget source attribution in steady-state, (ii) source attribution of recent global methane trends, and (iii) identifying specific methane sources in individual plumes during field campaigns. Additional comparisons of model experiments with atmospheric measurements and updates on isotopic source signature data will complement the analysis.

Spatial distribution of dust-bound trace elements in Pakistan and their implications for human exposure.

PubMed

Eqani, Syed Ali Musstjab Akber Shah; Kanwal, Ayesha; Bhowmik, Avit Kumar; Sohail, Mohammad; Ullah, Rizwan; Ali, Syeda Maria; Alamdar, Ambreen; Ali, Nadeem; Fasola, Mauro; Shen, Heqing

2016-06-01

This study aims to assess the spatial patterns of selected dust-borne trace elements alongside the river Indus Pakistan, their relation with anthropogenic and natural sources, and the potential risk posed to human health. The studied elements were found in descending concentrations: Mn, Zn, Pb, Cu, Ni, Cr, Co, and Cd. The Index of Geo-accumulation indicated that pollution of trace metals were higher in lower Indus plains than on mountain areas. In general, the toxic elements Cr, Mn, Co and Ni exhibited altitudinal trends (P < 0.05). The few exceptions to this trend were the higher values for all studied elements from the northern wet mountainous zone (low lying Himalaya). Spatial PCA/FA highlighted that the sources of different trace elements were zone specific, thus pointing to both geological influences and anthropogenic activities. The Hazard Index for Co and for Mn in children exceeded the value of 1 only in the riverine delta zone and in the southern low lying zone, whereas the Hazard Index for Pb was above the bench mark for both children and adults (with few exceptions) in all regions, thus indicating potential non-carcinogenic health risks. These results will contribute towards the environmental management of trace metal(s) with potential risk for human health throughout Pakistan. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial Variability of Perchlorate along a Traverse Route from Zhongshan Station to Dome A, East Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, S.; Cole-Dai, J.; Li, Y.; An, C.

2016-12-01

Snow deposition and accumulation on the Antarctic ice sheet preserve records of climatic change, as well as those of chemical characteristics of the environment. Chemical composition of snow and ice cores can be used to track the sources of important substances including pollutants and to investigate relationships between atmospheric chemistry and climatic conditions. Recent development in analytical methodology has enabled the determination of ultra-trace levels of perchlorate in polar snow. We have measured perchlorate concentrations in surface snow samples collected along a traverse route from Zhongshan Station to Dome A in East Antarctica to determine the level of atmospheric perchlorate in East Antarctica and to assess the spatial variability of perchlorate along the traverse route. Results show that the perchlorate concentrations vary between 32 and 200 ng kg-1, with an average of 104.3 ng kg-1. And perchlorate concentration profile presents regional variation patterns along the traverse route. In the coastal region, perchlorate concentration displays an apparent decreasing relationship with increasing distance inland; it exhibits no apparent trend in the intermediate region from 200 to 1000 km. The inland region from 1000 to 1244 km presents a generally increasing trend of perchlorate concentration approaching the dome. Different rates of atmospheric production, dilution by snow accumulation and re-deposition of snow-emitted perchlorate (post-depositional change) are the three possible factors influencing the spatial variability of perchlorate over Antarctica.

Opposing Seasonal Trends in Seawater pH and Aragonite Saturation State on the Bermuda Coral Reef Platform Reveal Complex Controls on Seawater Chemistry by Biological and Physical Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersson, A. J.; Bates, N. R.; dePutron, S.; Collins, A.; Neely, K.; Best, M.; Noyes, T.

2011-12-01

To accurately predict future consequences of ocean acidification on coastal environments and ecosystems, it is critical to understand present conditions and variability. As part of the Bermuda ocean acidification and coral reef investigation (BEACON), significant efforts have been dedicated to characterize the complete surface seawater carbonic-acid system at different temporal and spatial scales on the Bermuda coral reef platform to understand current levels and variability in seawater CO2 parameters, reef metabolism, and future potential changes arising from ocean acidification. A four years monthly time-series of seawater carbonic-acid parameters at eight different locations on the Bermuda coral reef platform reveals strong seasonal patterns in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), total alkalinity (TA), pH, pCO2, and [HCO3-], and somewhat weaker trends in [CO32-] and saturation state with respect to CaCO3 minerals. Strong spatial gradients are also observed in DIC and TA during summertime owing to reef metabolism, but no or weak spatial gradients of these parameters are observed in the wintertime. Interestingly, maximum pH-sws (~8.15) is observed during wintertime when minimum aragonite saturation state (<3.0) is observed. In contrast, minimum pH-sws (~7.95) is observed in the summertime when maximum aragonite saturation state (>3.70) is observed. The observed trends and gradients point to complex relationships and interactions between seawater chemistry, biology and physics that need to be considered in the context of ocean acidification and in making future predictions on the effects of this perturbation on coral reefs and coastal ecosystems.

Modeled changes in extreme wave climate for US and US-affiliated Pacific Islands during the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shope, J. B.; Storlazzi, C. D.; Erikson, L. H.; Hegermiller, C.

2013-12-01

Changes in future wave climates in the tropical Pacific Ocean from global climate change are not well understood. Waves are the dominant spatially- and temporally-varying processes that influence the coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of the islands throughout the tropical Pacific. Waves also impact the coastal infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and coastal-related economic activities of these islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast through 2100 using wind parameter outputs from four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project, Phase 5., for Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 that correspond to moderately mitigated and unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Wind fields from the global climate models were used to drive the global WAVEWATCH III wave model and generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific. Although the results show some spatial heterogeneity, overall, the December-February extreme significant wave heights increase from present to mid century and then decrease toward the end of the century; June-August extreme wave heights decrease throughout the century. Peak wave periods decrease west of the International Date Line through all seasons, whereas peak periods increase in the eastern half of the study area; these trends are smaller during December-February and greatest during June-August. Extreme wave directions in equatorial Micronesia during June-August undergo an approximate 30 degree counter-clockwise rotation from primarily northwest to west. The spatial patterns and trends are similar between the two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with the magnitude of the trends greater for the higher scenario.

A multiyear, global gridded fossil fuel CO2 emission data product: Evaluation and analysis of results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asefi-Najafabady, S.; Rayner, P. J.; Gurney, K. R.; McRobert, A.; Song, Y.; Coltin, K.; Huang, J.; Elvidge, C.; Baugh, K.

2014-09-01

High-resolution, global quantification of fossil fuel CO2 emissions is emerging as a critical need in carbon cycle science and climate policy. We build upon a previously developed fossil fuel data assimilation system (FFDAS) for estimating global high-resolution fossil fuel CO2 emissions. We have improved the underlying observationally based data sources, expanded the approach through treatment of separate emitting sectors including a new pointwise database of global power plants, and extended the results to cover a 1997 to 2010 time series at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Long-term trend analysis of the resulting global emissions shows subnational spatial structure in large active economies such as the United States, China, and India. These three countries, in particular, show different long-term trends and exploration of the trends in nighttime lights, and population reveal a decoupling of population and emissions at the subnational level. Analysis of shorter-term variations reveals the impact of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis with widespread negative emission anomalies across the U.S. and Europe. We have used a center of mass (CM) calculation as a compact metric to express the time evolution of spatial patterns in fossil fuel CO2 emissions. The global emission CM has moved toward the east and somewhat south between 1997 and 2010, driven by the increase in emissions in China and South Asia over this time period. Analysis at the level of individual countries reveals per capita CO2 emission migration in both Russia and India. The per capita emission CM holds potential as a way to succinctly analyze subnational shifts in carbon intensity over time. Uncertainties are generally lower than the previous version of FFDAS due mainly to an improved nightlight data set.

Effects of environmental covariates and density on the catchability of fish populations and interpretation of catch per unit effort trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Korman, Josh; Yard, Mike

2017-01-01

Article for outlet: Fisheries Research. Abstract: Quantifying temporal and spatial trends in abundance or relative abundance is required to evaluate effects of harvest and changes in habitat for exploited and endangered fish populations. In many cases, the proportion of the population or stock that is captured (catchability or capture probability) is unknown but is often assumed to be constant over space and time. We used data from a large-scale mark-recapture study to evaluate the extent of spatial and temporal variation, and the effects of fish density, fish size, and environmental covariates, on the capture probability of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Colorado River, AZ. Estimates of capture probability for boat electrofishing varied 5-fold across five reaches, 2.8-fold across the range of fish densities that were encountered, 2.1-fold over 19 trips, and 1.6-fold over five fish size classes. Shoreline angle and turbidity were the best covariates explaining variation in capture probability across reaches and trips. Patterns in capture probability were driven by changes in gear efficiency and spatial aggregation, but the latter was more important. Failure to account for effects of fish density on capture probability when translating a historical catch per unit effort time series into a time series of abundance, led to 2.5-fold underestimation of the maximum extent of variation in abundance over the period of record, and resulted in unreliable estimates of relative change in critical years. Catch per unit effort surveys have utility for monitoring long-term trends in relative abundance, but are too imprecise and potentially biased to evaluate population response to habitat changes or to modest changes in fishing effort.

Temporal and spatial correlation patterns of air pollutants in Chinese cities

PubMed Central

Dai, Yue-Hua

2017-01-01

As a huge threat to the public health, China’s air pollution has attracted extensive attention and continues to grow in tandem with the economy. Although the real-time air quality report can be utilized to update our knowledge on air quality, questions about how pollutants evolve across time and how pollutants are spatially correlated still remain a puzzle. In view of this point, we adopt the PMFG network method to analyze the six pollutants’ hourly data in 350 Chinese cities in an attempt to find out how these pollutants are correlated temporally and spatially. In terms of time dimension, the results indicate that, except for O3, the pollutants have a common feature of the strong intraday patterns of which the daily variations are composed of two contraction periods and two expansion periods. Besides, all the time series of the six pollutants possess strong long-term correlations, and this temporal memory effect helps to explain why smoggy days are always followed by one after another. In terms of space dimension, the correlation structure shows that O3 is characterized by the highest spatial connections. The PMFGs reveal the relationship between this spatial correlation and provincial administrative divisions by filtering the hierarchical structure in the correlation matrix and refining the cliques as the tinny spatial clusters. Finally, we check the stability of the correlation structure and conclude that, except for PM10 and O3, the other pollutants have an overall stable correlation, and all pollutants have a slight trend to become more divergent in space. These results not only enhance our understanding of the air pollutants’ evolutionary process, but also shed lights on the application of complex network methods into geographic issues. PMID:28832599

Long-term citizen-collected data reveal geographical patterns and temporal trends in lake water clarity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lottig, Noah R.; Wagner, Tyler; Henry, Emily N.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.; Stow, Craig A.

2014-01-01

We compiled a lake-water clarity database using publically available, citizen volunteer observations made between 1938 and 2012 across eight states in the Upper Midwest, USA. Our objectives were to determine (1) whether temporal trends in lake-water clarity existed across this large geographic area and (2) whether trends were related to the lake-specific characteristics of latitude, lake size, or time period the lake was monitored. Our database consisted of >140,000 individual Secchi observations from 3,251 lakes that we summarized per lake-year, resulting in 21,020 summer averages. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we found approximately a 1% per year increase in water clarity (quantified as Secchi depth) for the entire population of lakes. On an individual lake basis, 7% of lakes showed increased water clarity and 4% showed decreased clarity. Trend direction and strength were related to latitude and median sample date. Lakes in the southern part of our study-region had lower average annual summer water clarity, more negative long-term trends, and greater inter-annual variability in water clarity compared to northern lakes. Increasing trends were strongest for lakes with median sample dates earlier in the period of record (1938–2012). Our ability to identify specific mechanisms for these trends is currently hampered by the lack of a large, multi-thematic database of variables that drive water clarity (e.g., climate, land use/cover). Our results demonstrate, however, that citizen science can provide the critical monitoring data needed to address environmental questions at large spatial and long temporal scales. Collaborations among citizens, research scientists, and government agencies may be important for developing the data sources and analytical tools necessary to move toward an understanding of the factors influencing macro-scale patterns such as those shown here for lake water clarity.

Long-Term Citizen-Collected Data Reveal Geographical Patterns and Temporal Trends in Lake Water Clarity

PubMed Central

Lottig, Noah R.; Wagner, Tyler; Norton Henry, Emily; Spence Cheruvelil, Kendra; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.; Stow, Craig A.

2014-01-01

We compiled a lake-water clarity database using publically available, citizen volunteer observations made between 1938 and 2012 across eight states in the Upper Midwest, USA. Our objectives were to determine (1) whether temporal trends in lake-water clarity existed across this large geographic area and (2) whether trends were related to the lake-specific characteristics of latitude, lake size, or time period the lake was monitored. Our database consisted of >140,000 individual Secchi observations from 3,251 lakes that we summarized per lake-year, resulting in 21,020 summer averages. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we found approximately a 1% per year increase in water clarity (quantified as Secchi depth) for the entire population of lakes. On an individual lake basis, 7% of lakes showed increased water clarity and 4% showed decreased clarity. Trend direction and strength were related to latitude and median sample date. Lakes in the southern part of our study-region had lower average annual summer water clarity, more negative long-term trends, and greater inter-annual variability in water clarity compared to northern lakes. Increasing trends were strongest for lakes with median sample dates earlier in the period of record (1938–2012). Our ability to identify specific mechanisms for these trends is currently hampered by the lack of a large, multi-thematic database of variables that drive water clarity (e.g., climate, land use/cover). Our results demonstrate, however, that citizen science can provide the critical monitoring data needed to address environmental questions at large spatial and long temporal scales. Collaborations among citizens, research scientists, and government agencies may be important for developing the data sources and analytical tools necessary to move toward an understanding of the factors influencing macro-scale patterns such as those shown here for lake water clarity. PMID:24788722

Fish assemblage in a semi-arid Neotropical reservoir: composition, structure and patterns of diversity and abundance.

PubMed

Novaes, J L C; Moreira, S I L; Freire, C E C; Sousa, M M O; Costa, R S

2014-05-01

The aim of this study was to analyse the composition, structure and spatial and temporal patterns of diversity and abundance of the ichthyofauna of the Santa Cruz Reservoir in semi-arid Brazil. Data were collected quarterly at eight sampling locations on the reservoir between February 2010 and November 2011 using gillnets from 12- to 70-mm mesh that were left in the water for 12h00min during the night. We evaluated the composition, structure and assemblage descriptors (Shannon-Wiener diversity index and equitability, respectively) and catch per unit effort by the number (CPUEn) and biomass (CPUEb) of the ichthyofauna. The 6,047 individuals (399,211.6 g) captured represented three orders, ten families and 20 species, of which four belonged to introduced species. The family Characidae was the most abundant with a total of 2,772 (45.8%) individuals captured. The species-abundance curve fit the log-normal model. In the spatial analysis of diversity, there were significant differences between sampling sites in the lacustrine and fluvial regions, and the highest values were found in the lacustrine region. In the temporal analysis of diversity, significant differences were also observed between the rainy and dry seasons, and the higher values were found during the dry season. Equitability followed the same spatiotemporal pattern as diversity. The Spearman correlation was significantly negative between diversity and rainfall. A cluster analysis spatially separated the ichthyofauna into two groups: one group formed by sampling sites in the fluvial region and another group formed by the remainder of the points in the lacustrine region. Both the CPUEn and CPUEb values were higher at point 8 (fluvial region) and during the rainy season. A two-way ANOVA showed that the CPUEn and CPUEb values were spatially and temporally significant. We conclude that the spatial and temporal trends of diversity in the Santa Cruz reservoir differ from those of other Brazilian reservoirs but that the fish community composition and spatiotemporal patterns of abundance were similar.

Long-term aerosol climatology over Indo-Gangetic Plain: Trend, prediction and potential source fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, M.; Parmar, K. S.; Kumar, D. B.; Mhawish, A.; Broday, D. M.; Mall, R. K.; Banerjee, T.

2018-05-01

Long-term aerosol climatology is derived using Terra MODIS (Collection 6) enhanced Deep Blue (DB) AOD retrieval algorithm to investigate decadal trend (2006-2015) in columnar aerosol loading, future scenarios and potential source fields over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), South Asia. Satellite based aerosol climatology was analyzed in two contexts: for the entire IGP considering area weighted mean AOD and for nine individual stations located at upper (Karachi, Multan, Lahore), central (Delhi, Kanpur, Varanasi, Patna) and lower IGP (Kolkata, Dhaka). A comparatively high aerosol loading (AOD: 0.50 ± 0.25) was evident over IGP with a statistically insignificant increasing trend of 0.002 year-1. Analysis highlights the existing spatial and temporal gradients in aerosol loading with stations over central IGP like Varanasi (decadal mean AOD±SD; 0.67 ± 0.28) and Patna (0.65 ± 0.30) exhibit the highest AOD, followed by stations over lower IGP (Kolkata: 0.58 ± 0.21; Dhaka: 0.60 ± 0.24), with a statistically significant increasing trend (0.0174-0.0206 year-1). In contrast, stations over upper IGP reveal a comparatively low aerosol loading, having an insignificant increasing trend. Variation in AOD across IGP is found to be mainly influenced by seasonality and topography. A distinct "aerosol pool" region over eastern part of Ganges plain is identified, where meteorology, topography, and aerosol sources favor the persistence of airborne particulates. A strong seasonality in aerosol loading and types is also witnessed, with high AOD and dominance of fine particulates over central to lower IGP, especially during post-monsoon and winter. The time series analyses by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) indicate contrasting patterns in randomness of AOD over individual stations with better performance especially over central IGP. Concentration weighted trajectory analyses identify the crucial contributions of western dry regions and partial contributions from central Highlands and north-eastern India, in regulating AOD over stations across IGP. Although our analyses provide some attributes to the observed changes in aerosol loading, we conclude that the spatial and temporal pattern of aerosol properties is highly complex and dynamic over IGP, and require further investigation in order to reduce uncertainty in aerosol-climate model.

Patterns of white matter damage are non-random and associated with cognitive function in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Meijer, K A; Cercignani, M; Muhlert, N; Sethi, V; Chard, D; Geurts, J J G; Ciccarelli, O

2016-01-01

In multiple sclerosis (MS), white matter damage is thought to contribute to cognitive dysfunction, which is especially prominent in secondary progressive MS (SPMS). While studies in healthy subjects have revealed patterns of correlated fractional anisotropy (FA) across white matter tracts, little is known about the underlying patterns of white matter damage in MS. In the present study, we aimed to map the SPMS-related covariance patterns of microstructural white matter changes, and investigated whether or not these patterns were associated with cognitive dysfunction. Diffusion MRI was acquired from 30 SPMS patients and 32 healthy controls (HC). A tensor model was fitted and FA maps were processed using tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) in order to obtain a skeletonised map for each subject. The skeletonised FA maps of patients only were decomposed into 18 spatially independent components (ICs) using independent component analysis. Comprehensive cognitive assessment was conducted to evaluate five cognitive domains. Correlations between cognitive performance and (1) severity of FA abnormalities of the extracted ICs (i.e. z-scores relative to FA values of HC) and (2) IC load (i.e. FA covariance of a particular IC) were examined. SPMS patients showed lower FA values of all examined patterns of correlated FA (i.e. spatially independent components) than HC (p < 0.01). Tracts visually assigned to the supratentorial commissural class were most severely damaged (z = - 3.54; p < 0.001). Reduced FA was significantly correlated with reduced IC load (i.e. FA covariance) (r = 0.441; p < 0.05). Lower mean FA and component load of the supratentorial projection tracts and limbic association tracts classes were associated with worse cognitive function, including executive function, working memory and verbal memory. Despite the presence of white matter damage, it was possible to reveal patterns of FA covariance across SPMS patients. This could indicate that white matter tracts belonging to the same cluster, and thus with similar characteristics, tend to follow similar trends during neurodegeneration. Furthermore, these underlying FA patterns might help to explain cognitive dysfunction in SPMS.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nguyen, Thien Khoi V.; Ghate, Virendra P.; Carlton, Annmarie G.

Summertime aerosol optical thickness (AOT) over the Southeast U.S. is sharply enhanced over wintertime values. This seasonal pattern is unique and of particular interest because temperatures there have not warmed over the past 100 years. Patterns in surface fine particle mass are inconsistent with satellite reported AOT. In this work, we attempt to reconcile the spatial and temporal distribution of AOT over the U.S. with particle mass measurements at the surface by examining trends in aerosol liquid water (ALW), a particle constituent that scatters radiation affecting the satellite AOT, but is removed in mass measurements at routine surface monitoring sites.more » We employ the thermodynamic model ISORROPIAv2.1 to estimate ALW mass concentrations at IMRPOVE sites using measured ion mass concentrations and NARR meteorological data. Our findings suggest ALW provides a plausible explanation for the geographical and seasonal patterns in AOT and can reconcile previously noted discrepancies with surface mass measurements.« less

Causes of spring vegetation greenness trends in the northern mid-high latitudes from 1982 to 2004

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter E

2012-01-01

The Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) is applied to explore the spatial temporal patterns of spring (April May) vegetation growth trends over the northern mid high latitudes (NMH) (>25 N) between 1982 and 2004. During the spring season through the 23 yr period, both the satellite-derived and simulated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomalies show a statistically significant correlation and an overall greening trend within the study area. Consistently with the observed NDVI temperature relation, the CLM4 NDVI shows a significant positive association with the spring temperature anomaly for the NMH, North America and Eurasia. Large study areas experiencemore » temperature discontinuity associated with contrasting NDVI trends. Before and after the turning point (TP) of the temperature trends, climatic variability plays a dominant role, while the other environmental factors exert minor effects on the NDVI tendencies. Simulated vegetation growth is broadly stimulated by the increasing atmospheric CO2. Trends show that nitrogen deposition increases NDVI mostly in southeastern China, and decreases NDVI mainly in western Russia after the temperature TP. Furthermore, land use-induced NDVI trends vary roughly with the respective changes in land management practices (crop areas and forest coverage). Our results highlight how non-climatic factors mitigate or exacerbate the impact of temperature on spring vegetation growth, particularly across regions with intensive human activity.« less