Epidemic patch models applied to pandemic influenza: contact matrix, stochasticity, robustness of predictions.

PubMed

Lunelli, Antonella; Pugliese, Andrea; Rizzo, Caterina

2009-07-01

Due to the recent emergence of H5N1 virus, the modelling of pandemic influenza has become a relevant issue. Here we present an SEIR model formulated to simulate a possible outbreak in Italy, analysing its structure and, more generally, the effect of including specific details into a model. These details regard population heterogeneities, such as age and spatial distribution, as well as stochasticity, that regulates the epidemic dynamics when the number of infectives is low. We discuss and motivate the specific modelling choices made when building the model and investigate how the model details influence the predicted dynamics. Our analysis may help in deciding which elements of complexity are worth including in the design of a deterministic model for pandemic influenza, in a balance between, on the one hand, keeping the model computationally efficient and the number of parameters low and, on the other hand, maintaining the necessary realistic features.

Modeling space-time correlations of velocity fluctuations in wind farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukassen, Laura J.; Stevens, Richard J. A. M.; Meneveau, Charles; Wilczek, Michael

2018-07-01

An analytical model for the streamwise velocity space-time correlations in turbulent flows is derived and applied to the special case of velocity fluctuations in large wind farms. The model is based on the Kraichnan-Tennekes random sweeping hypothesis, capturing the decorrelation in time while including a mean wind velocity in the streamwise direction. In the resulting model, the streamwise velocity space-time correlation is expressed as a convolution of the pure space correlation with an analytical temporal decorrelation kernel. Hence, the spatio-temporal structure of velocity fluctuations in wind farms can be derived from the spatial correlations only. We then explore the applicability of the model to predict spatio-temporal correlations in turbulent flows in wind farms. Comparisons of the model with data from a large eddy simulation of flow in a large, spatially periodic wind farm are performed, where needed model parameters such as spatial and temporal integral scales and spatial correlations are determined from the large eddy simulation. Good agreement is obtained between the model and large eddy simulation data showing that spatial data may be used to model the full temporal structure of fluctuations in wind farms.

Simulations of the temporal and spatial resolution for a compact time-resolved electron diffractometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Matthew S.; Lane, Paul D.; Wann, Derek A.

2016-02-01

A novel compact electron gun for use in time-resolved gas electron diffraction experiments has recently been designed and commissioned. In this paper we present and discuss the extensive simulations that were performed to underpin the design in terms of the spatial and temporal qualities of the pulsed electron beam created by the ionisation of a gold photocathode using a femtosecond laser. The response of the electron pulses to a solenoid lens used to focus the electron beam has also been studied. The simulated results show that focussing the electron beam affects the overall spatial and temporal resolution of the experiment in a variety of ways, and that factors that improve the resolution of one parameter can often have a negative effect on the other. A balance must, therefore, be achieved between spatial and temporal resolution. The optimal experimental time resolution for the apparatus is predicted to be 416 fs for studies of gas-phase species, while the predicted spatial resolution of better than 2 nm-1 compares well with traditional time-averaged electron diffraction set-ups.

Sensitivity of chemical transport model simulations to the duration of chemical and transport operators: a case study with GEOS-Chem v10-01

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philip, S.; Martin, R. V.; Keller, C. A.

2015-11-01

Chemical transport models involve considerable computational expense. Fine temporal resolution offers accuracy at the expense of computation time. Assessment is needed of the sensitivity of simulation accuracy to the duration of chemical and transport operators. We conduct a series of simulations with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model at different temporal and spatial resolutions to examine the sensitivity of simulated atmospheric composition to temporal resolution. Subsequently, we compare the tracers simulated with operator durations from 10 to 60 min as typically used by global chemical transport models, and identify the timesteps that optimize both computational expense and simulation accuracy. We found that longer transport timesteps increase concentrations of emitted species such as nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide since a more homogeneous distribution reduces loss through chemical reactions and dry deposition. The increased concentrations of ozone precursors increase ozone production at longer transport timesteps. Longer chemical timesteps decrease sulfate and ammonium but increase nitrate due to feedbacks with in-cloud sulfur dioxide oxidation and aerosol thermodynamics. The simulation duration decreases by an order of magnitude from fine (5 min) to coarse (60 min) temporal resolution. We assess the change in simulation accuracy with resolution by comparing the root mean square difference in ground-level concentrations of nitrogen oxides, ozone, carbon monoxide and secondary inorganic aerosols with a finer temporal or spatial resolution taken as truth. Simulation error for these species increases by more than a factor of 5 from the shortest (5 min) to longest (60 min) temporal resolution. Chemical timesteps twice that of the transport timestep offer more simulation accuracy per unit computation. However, simulation error from coarser spatial resolution generally exceeds that from longer timesteps; e.g. degrading from 2° × 2.5° to 4° × 5° increases error by an order of magnitude. We recommend prioritizing fine spatial resolution before considering different temporal resolutions in offline chemical transport models. We encourage the chemical transport model users to specify in publications the durations of operators due to their effects on simulation accuracy.

Three dimensional simulation of spatial and temporal variability of stratospheric hydrogen chloride

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaye, Jack A.; Rood, Richard B.; Jackman, Charles H.; Allen, Dale J.; Larson, Edmund M.

1989-01-01

Spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric HCl columns are calculated for January 1979 using a three-dimensional chemistry-transport model designed to provide the best possible representation of stratospheric transport. Large spatial and temporal variability of the HCl columns is shown to be correlated with lower stratospheric potential vorticity and thus to be of dynamical origin. Systematic longitudinal structure is correlated with planetary wave structure. These results can help place spatially and temporally isolated column and profile measurements in a regional and/or global perspective.

Spatially explicit and stochastic simulation of forest landscape fire disturbance and succession

Treesearch

Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff

1999-01-01

Understanding disturbance and recovery of forest landscapes is a challenge because of complex interactions over a range of temporal and spatial scales. Landscape simulation models offer an approach to studying such systems at broad scales. Fire can be simulated spatially using mechanistic or stochastic approaches. We describe the fire module in a spatially explicit,...

Periodic array-based substrates for surface-enhanced infrared spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayerhöfer, Thomas G.; Popp, Jürgen

2018-01-01

At the beginning of the 1980s, the first reports of surface-enhanced infrared spectroscopy (SEIRS) surfaced. Probably due to signal-enhancement factors of only 101 to 103, which are modest compared to those of surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS), SEIRS did not reach the same significance up to date. However, taking the compared to Raman scattering much larger cross-sections of infrared absorptions and the enhancement factors together, SEIRS reaches about the same sensitivity for molecular species on a surface in terms of the cross-sections as SERS and, due to the complementary nature of both techniques, can valuably augment information gained by SERS. For the first 20 years since its discovery, SEIRS relied completely on metal island films, fabricated by either vapor or electrochemical deposition. The resulting films showed a strong variance concerning their structure, which was essentially random. Therefore, the increase in the corresponding signal-enhancement factors of these structures stagnated in the last years. In the very same years, however, the development of periodic array-based substrates helped SEIRS to gather momentum. This development was supported by technological progress concerning electromagnetic field solvers, which help to understand plasmonic properties and allow targeted design. In addition, the strong progress concerning modern fabrication methods allowed to implement these designs into practice. The aim of this contribution is to critically review the development of these engineered surfaces for SEIRS, to compare the different approaches with regard to their performance where possible, and report further gain of knowledge around and in relation to these structures.

The effects of seed dispersal on the simulation of long-term forest landscape change

Treesearch

Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff

1999-01-01

The study of forest landscape change requires an understanding of the complex interactions of both spatial and temporal factors. Traditionally, forest gap models have been used to simulate change on small and independent plots. While gap models are useful in examining forest ecological dynamics across temporal scales, large, spatial processes, such as seed dispersal,...

Utility of computer simulations in landscape genetics

Treesearch

Bryan K. Epperson; Brad H. McRae; Kim Scribner; Samuel A. Cushman; Michael S. Rosenberg; Marie-Josee Fortin; Patrick M. A. James; Melanie Murphy; Stephanie Manel; Pierre Legendre; Mark R. T. Dale

2010-01-01

Population genetics theory is primarily based on mathematical models in which spatial complexity and temporal variability are largely ignored. In contrast, the field of landscape genetics expressly focuses on how population genetic processes are affected by complex spatial and temporal environmental heterogeneity. It is spatially explicit and relates patterns to...

Characterizing and Discovering Spatiotemporal Social Contact Patterns for Healthcare.

PubMed

Yang, Bo; Pei, Hongbin; Chen, Hechang; Liu, Jiming; Xia, Shang

2017-08-01

During an epidemic, the spatial, temporal and demographic patterns of disease transmission are determined by multiple factors. In addition to the physiological properties of the pathogens and hosts, the social contact of the host population, which characterizes the reciprocal exposures of individuals to infection according to their demographic structure and various social activities, are also pivotal to understanding and predicting the prevalence of infectious diseases. How social contact is measured will affect the extent to which we can forecast the dynamics of infections in the real world. Most current work focuses on modeling the spatial patterns of static social contact. In this work, we use a novel perspective to address the problem of how to characterize and measure dynamic social contact during an epidemic. We propose an epidemic-model-based tensor deconvolution framework in which the spatiotemporal patterns of social contact are represented by the factors of the tensors. These factors can be discovered using a tensor deconvolution procedure with the integration of epidemic models based on rich types of data, mainly heterogeneous outbreak surveillance data, socio-demographic census data and physiological data from medical reports. Using reproduction models that include SIR/SIS/SEIR/SEIS models as case studies, the efficacy and applications of the proposed framework are theoretically analyzed, empirically validated and demonstrated through a set of rigorous experiments using both synthetic and real-world data.

Visualization of spatial-temporal data based on 3D virtual scene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xianghong; Liu, Jiping; Wang, Yong; Bi, Junfang

2009-10-01

The main purpose of this paper is to realize the expression of the three-dimensional dynamic visualization of spatialtemporal data based on three-dimensional virtual scene, using three-dimensional visualization technology, and combining with GIS so that the people's abilities of cognizing time and space are enhanced and improved by designing dynamic symbol and interactive expression. Using particle systems, three-dimensional simulation, virtual reality and other visual means, we can simulate the situations produced by changing the spatial location and property information of geographical entities over time, then explore and analyze its movement and transformation rules by changing the interactive manner, and also replay history and forecast of future. In this paper, the main research object is the vehicle track and the typhoon path and spatial-temporal data, through three-dimensional dynamic simulation of its track, and realize its timely monitoring its trends and historical track replaying; according to visualization techniques of spatialtemporal data in Three-dimensional virtual scene, providing us with excellent spatial-temporal information cognitive instrument not only can add clarity to show spatial-temporal information of the changes and developments in the situation, but also be used for future development and changes in the prediction and deduction.

Topologically Consistent Models for Efficient Big Geo-Spatio Data Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahn, M. W.; Bradley, P. E.; Doori, M. Al; Breunig, M.

2017-10-01

Geo-spatio-temporal topology models are likely to become a key concept to check the consistency of 3D (spatial space) and 4D (spatial + temporal space) models for emerging GIS applications such as subsurface reservoir modelling or the simulation of energy and water supply of mega or smart cities. Furthermore, the data management for complex models consisting of big geo-spatial data is a challenge for GIS and geo-database research. General challenges, concepts, and techniques of big geo-spatial data management are presented. In this paper we introduce a sound mathematical approach for a topologically consistent geo-spatio-temporal model based on the concept of the incidence graph. We redesign DB4GeO, our service-based geo-spatio-temporal database architecture, on the way to the parallel management of massive geo-spatial data. Approaches for a new geo-spatio-temporal and object model of DB4GeO meeting the requirements of big geo-spatial data are discussed in detail. Finally, a conclusion and outlook on our future research are given on the way to support the processing of geo-analytics and -simulations in a parallel and distributed system environment.

A combination of spatial and recursive temporal filtering for noise reduction when using region of interest (ROI) fluoroscopy for patient dose reduction in image guided vascular interventions with significant anatomical motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setlur Nagesh, S. V.; Khobragade, P.; Ionita, C.; Bednarek, D. R.; Rudin, S.

2015-03-01

Because x-ray based image-guided vascular interventions are minimally invasive they are currently the most preferred method of treating disorders such as stroke, arterial stenosis, and aneurysms; however, the x-ray exposure to the patient during long image-guided interventional procedures could cause harmful effects such as cancer in the long run and even tissue damage in the short term. ROI fluoroscopy reduces patient dose by differentially attenuating the incident x-rays outside the region-of-interest. To reduce the noise in the dose-reduced regions previously recursive temporal filtering was successfully demonstrated for neurovascular interventions. However, in cardiac interventions, anatomical motion is significant and excessive recursive filtering could cause blur. In this work the effects of three noise-reduction schemes, including recursive temporal filtering, spatial mean filtering, and a combination of spatial and recursive temporal filtering, were investigated in a simulated ROI dose-reduced cardiac intervention. First a model to simulate the aortic arch and its movement was built. A coronary stent was used to simulate a bioprosthetic valve used in TAVR procedures and was deployed under dose-reduced ROI fluoroscopy during the simulated heart motion. The images were then retrospectively processed for noise reduction in the periphery, using recursive temporal filtering, spatial filtering and a combination of both. Quantitative metrics for all three noise reduction schemes are calculated and are presented as results. From these it can be concluded that with significant anatomical motion, a combination of spatial and recursive temporal filtering scheme is best suited for reducing the excess quantum noise in the periphery. This new noise-reduction technique in combination with ROI fluoroscopy has the potential for substantial patient-dose savings in cardiac interventions.

SEIIrR: Drug abuse model with rehabilitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutanto, Azizah, Afina; Widyaningsih, Purnami; Saputro, Dewi Retno Sari

2017-05-01

Drug abuse in the world quite astonish and tend to increase. The increase and decrease on the number of drug abusers showed a pattern of spread that had the same characteristics with patterns of spread of infectious disease. The susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR) epidemic models for infectious disease was developed to study social epidemic. In this paper, SEIR model for disease epidemic was developed to study drug abuse epidemic with rehabilitation treatment. The aims of this paper were to analogize susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIrR) model on the drug abusers, to determine solutions of the model, to determine equilibrium point, and to do simulation on β. The solutions of SEIIrR model was determined by using fourth order of Runge-Kutta algorithm, equilibrium point obtained was free-drug equilibrium point. Solutions of SEIIrR showed that the model was able to suppress the spread of drug abuse. The increasing value of contact rate was not affect the number of infected individuals due to rehabilitation treatment.

Qualitative and numerical investigations of the impact of a novel pathogen on a seabird colony

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Regan, S. M.; Kelly, T. C.; Korobeinikov, A.; O'Callaghan, M. J. A.; Pokrovskii, A. V.

2008-11-01

Understanding the dynamics of novel pathogens in dense populations is crucial to public and veterinary health as well as wildlife ecology. Seabirds live in crowded colonies numbering several thousands of individuals. The long-term dynamics of avian influenza H5N1 virus in a seabird colony with no existing herd immunity are investigated using sophisticated mathematical techniques. The key characteristics of seabird population biology and the H5N1 virus are incorporated into a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model. Using the theory of integral manifolds, the SEIR model is reduced to a simpler system of two differential equations depending on the infected and recovered populations only, termed the IR model. The results of numerical experiments indicate that the IR model and the SEIR model are in close agreement. Using Lyapunov's direct method, the equilibria of the SEIR and the IR models are proven to be globally asymptotically stable in the positive quadrant.

Constructing Rigorous and Broad Biosurveillance Networks for Detecting Emerging Zoonotic Outbreaks

PubMed Central

Brown, Mac; Moore, Leslie; McMahon, Benjamin; Powell, Dennis; LaBute, Montiago; Hyman, James M.; Rivas, Ariel; Jankowski, Mark; Berendzen, Joel; Loeppky, Jason; Manore, Carrie; Fair, Jeanne

2015-01-01

Determining optimal surveillance networks for an emerging pathogen is difficult since it is not known beforehand what the characteristics of a pathogen will be or where it will emerge. The resources for surveillance of infectious diseases in animals and wildlife are often limited and mathematical modeling can play a supporting role in examining a wide range of scenarios of pathogen spread. We demonstrate how a hierarchy of mathematical and statistical tools can be used in surveillance planning help guide successful surveillance and mitigation policies for a wide range of zoonotic pathogens. The model forecasts can help clarify the complexities of potential scenarios, and optimize biosurveillance programs for rapidly detecting infectious diseases. Using the highly pathogenic zoonotic H5N1 avian influenza 2006-2007 epidemic in Nigeria as an example, we determined the risk for infection for localized areas in an outbreak and designed biosurveillance stations that are effective for different pathogen strains and a range of possible outbreak locations. We created a general multi-scale, multi-host stochastic SEIR epidemiological network model, with both short and long-range movement, to simulate the spread of an infectious disease through Nigerian human, poultry, backyard duck, and wild bird populations. We chose parameter ranges specific to avian influenza (but not to a particular strain) and used a Latin hypercube sample experimental design to investigate epidemic predictions in a thousand simulations. We ranked the risk of local regions by the number of times they became infected in the ensemble of simulations. These spatial statistics were then complied into a potential risk map of infection. Finally, we validated the results with a known outbreak, using spatial analysis of all the simulation runs to show the progression matched closely with the observed location of the farms infected in the 2006-2007 epidemic. PMID:25946164

Leveraging Mechanism Simplicity and Strategic Averaging to Identify Signals from Highly Heterogeneous Spatial and Temporal Ozone Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown-Steiner, B.; Selin, N. E.; Prinn, R. G.; Monier, E.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Tilmes, S.; Emmons, L. K.; Lamarque, J. F.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.

2017-12-01

We summarize two methods to aid in the identification of ozone signals from underlying spatially and temporally heterogeneous data in order to help research communities avoid the sometimes burdensome computational costs of high-resolution high-complexity models. The first method utilizes simplified chemical mechanisms (a Reduced Hydrocarbon Mechanism and a Superfast Mechanism) alongside a more complex mechanism (MOZART-4) within CESM CAM-Chem to extend the number of simulated meteorological years (or add additional members to an ensemble) for a given modeling problem. The Reduced Hydrocarbon mechanism is twice as fast, and the Superfast mechanism is three times faster than the MOZART-4 mechanism. We show that simplified chemical mechanisms are largely capable of simulating surface ozone across the globe as well as the more complex chemical mechanisms, and where they are not capable, a simple standardized anomaly emulation approach can correct for their inadequacies. The second method uses strategic averaging over both temporal and spatial scales to filter out the highly heterogeneous noise that underlies ozone observations and simulations. This method allows for a selection of temporal and spatial averaging scales that match a particular signal strength (between 0.5 and 5 ppbv), and enables the identification of regions where an ozone signal can rise above the ozone noise over a given region and a given period of time. In conjunction, these two methods can be used to "scale down" chemical mechanism complexity and quantitatively determine spatial and temporal scales that could enable research communities to utilize simplified representations of atmospheric chemistry and thereby maximize their productivity and efficiency given computational constraints. While this framework is here applied to ozone data, it could also be applied to a broad range of geospatial data sets (observed or modeled) that have spatial and temporal coverage.

Evaluating and implementing temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal methods for outbreak detection in a local syndromic surveillance system

PubMed Central

Lall, Ramona; Levin-Rector, Alison; Sell, Jessica; Paladini, Marc; Konty, Kevin J.; Olson, Don; Weiss, Don

2017-01-01

The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene has operated an emergency department syndromic surveillance system since 2001, using temporal and spatial scan statistics run on a daily basis for cluster detection. Since the system was originally implemented, a number of new methods have been proposed for use in cluster detection. We evaluated six temporal and four spatial/spatio-temporal detection methods using syndromic surveillance data spiked with simulated injections. The algorithms were compared on several metrics, including sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, coherence, and timeliness. We also evaluated each method’s implementation, programming time, run time, and the ease of use. Among the temporal methods, at a set specificity of 95%, a Holt-Winters exponential smoother performed the best, detecting 19% of the simulated injects across all shapes and sizes, followed by an autoregressive moving average model (16%), a generalized linear model (15%), a modified version of the Early Aberration Reporting System’s C2 algorithm (13%), a temporal scan statistic (11%), and a cumulative sum control chart (<2%). Of the spatial/spatio-temporal methods we tested, a spatial scan statistic detected 3% of all injects, a Bayes regression found 2%, and a generalized linear mixed model and a space-time permutation scan statistic detected none at a specificity of 95%. Positive predictive value was low (<7%) for all methods. Overall, the detection methods we tested did not perform well in identifying the temporal and spatial clusters of cases in the inject dataset. The spatial scan statistic, our current method for spatial cluster detection, performed slightly better than the other tested methods across different inject magnitudes and types. Furthermore, we found the scan statistics, as applied in the SaTScan software package, to be the easiest to program and implement for daily data analysis. PMID:28886112

Evaluating and implementing temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal methods for outbreak detection in a local syndromic surveillance system.

PubMed

Mathes, Robert W; Lall, Ramona; Levin-Rector, Alison; Sell, Jessica; Paladini, Marc; Konty, Kevin J; Olson, Don; Weiss, Don

2017-01-01

The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene has operated an emergency department syndromic surveillance system since 2001, using temporal and spatial scan statistics run on a daily basis for cluster detection. Since the system was originally implemented, a number of new methods have been proposed for use in cluster detection. We evaluated six temporal and four spatial/spatio-temporal detection methods using syndromic surveillance data spiked with simulated injections. The algorithms were compared on several metrics, including sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, coherence, and timeliness. We also evaluated each method's implementation, programming time, run time, and the ease of use. Among the temporal methods, at a set specificity of 95%, a Holt-Winters exponential smoother performed the best, detecting 19% of the simulated injects across all shapes and sizes, followed by an autoregressive moving average model (16%), a generalized linear model (15%), a modified version of the Early Aberration Reporting System's C2 algorithm (13%), a temporal scan statistic (11%), and a cumulative sum control chart (<2%). Of the spatial/spatio-temporal methods we tested, a spatial scan statistic detected 3% of all injects, a Bayes regression found 2%, and a generalized linear mixed model and a space-time permutation scan statistic detected none at a specificity of 95%. Positive predictive value was low (<7%) for all methods. Overall, the detection methods we tested did not perform well in identifying the temporal and spatial clusters of cases in the inject dataset. The spatial scan statistic, our current method for spatial cluster detection, performed slightly better than the other tested methods across different inject magnitudes and types. Furthermore, we found the scan statistics, as applied in the SaTScan software package, to be the easiest to program and implement for daily data analysis.

Modeling structural change in spatial system dynamics: A Daisyworld example.

PubMed

Neuwirth, C; Peck, A; Simonović, S P

2015-03-01

System dynamics (SD) is an effective approach for helping reveal the temporal behavior of complex systems. Although there have been recent developments in expanding SD to include systems' spatial dependencies, most applications have been restricted to the simulation of diffusion processes; this is especially true for models on structural change (e.g. LULC modeling). To address this shortcoming, a Python program is proposed to tightly couple SD software to a Geographic Information System (GIS). The approach provides the required capacities for handling bidirectional and synchronized interactions of operations between SD and GIS. In order to illustrate the concept and the techniques proposed for simulating structural changes, a fictitious environment called Daisyworld has been recreated in a spatial system dynamics (SSD) environment. The comparison of spatial and non-spatial simulations emphasizes the importance of considering spatio-temporal feedbacks. Finally, practical applications of structural change models in agriculture and disaster management are proposed.

A spatial panel ordered-response model with application to the analysis of urban land-use development intensity patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferdous, Nazneen; Bhat, Chandra R.

2013-01-01

This paper proposes and estimates a spatial panel ordered-response probit model with temporal autoregressive error terms to analyze changes in urban land development intensity levels over time. Such a model structure maintains a close linkage between the land owner's decision (unobserved to the analyst) and the land development intensity level (observed by the analyst) and accommodates spatial interactions between land owners that lead to spatial spillover effects. In addition, the model structure incorporates spatial heterogeneity as well as spatial heteroscedasticity. The resulting model is estimated using a composite marginal likelihood (CML) approach that does not require any simulation machinery and that can be applied to data sets of any size. A simulation exercise indicates that the CML approach recovers the model parameters very well, even in the presence of high spatial and temporal dependence. In addition, the simulation results demonstrate that ignoring spatial dependency and spatial heterogeneity when both are actually present will lead to bias in parameter estimation. A demonstration exercise applies the proposed model to examine urban land development intensity levels using parcel-level data from Austin, Texas.

Satellite image time series simulation for environmental monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Tao

2014-11-01

The performance of environmental monitoring heavily depends on the availability of consecutive observation data and it turns out an increasing demand in remote sensing community for satellite image data in the sufficient resolution with respect to both spatial and temporal requirements, which appear to be conflictive and hard to tune tradeoffs. Multiple constellations could be a solution if without concerning cost, and thus it is so far interesting but very challenging to develop a method which can simultaneously improve both spatial and temporal details. There are some research efforts to deal with the problem from various aspects, a type of approaches is to enhance the spatial resolution using techniques of super resolution, pan-sharpen etc. which can produce good visual effects, but mostly cannot preserve spectral signatures and result in losing analytical value. Another type is to fill temporal frequency gaps by adopting time interpolation, which actually doesn't increase informative context at all. In this paper we presented a novel method to generate satellite images in higher spatial and temporal details, which further enables satellite image time series simulation. Our method starts with a pair of high-low resolution data set, and then a spatial registration is done by introducing LDA model to map high and low resolution pixels correspondingly. Afterwards, temporal change information is captured through a comparison of low resolution time series data, and the temporal change is then projected onto high resolution data plane and assigned to each high resolution pixel referring the predefined temporal change patterns of each type of ground objects to generate a simulated high resolution data. A preliminary experiment shows that our method can simulate a high resolution data with a good accuracy. We consider the contribution of our method is to enable timely monitoring of temporal changes through analysis of low resolution images time series only, and usage of costly high resolution data can be reduced as much as possible, and it presents an efficient solution with great cost performance to build up an economically operational monitoring service for environment, agriculture, forest, land use investigation, and other applications.

Simulation of white light generation and near light bullets using a novel numerical technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zia, Haider

2018-01-01

An accurate and efficient simulation has been devised, employing a new numerical technique to simulate the derivative generalised non-linear Schrödinger equation in all three spatial dimensions and time. The simulation models all pertinent effects such as self-steepening and plasma for the non-linear propagation of ultrafast optical radiation in bulk material. Simulation results are compared to published experimental spectral data of an example ytterbium aluminum garnet system at 3.1 μm radiation and fits to within a factor of 5. The simulation shows that there is a stability point near the end of the 2 mm crystal where a quasi-light bullet (spatial temporal soliton) is present. Within this region, the pulse is collimated at a reduced diameter (factor of ∼2) and there exists a near temporal soliton at the spatial center. The temporal intensity within this stable region is compressed by a factor of ∼4 compared to the input. This study shows that the simulation highlights new physical phenomena based on the interplay of various linear, non-linear and plasma effects that go beyond the experiment and is thus integral to achieving accurate designs of white light generation systems for optical applications. An adaptive error reduction algorithm tailor made for this simulation will also be presented in appendix.

CHARACTERIZING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DYNAMICS: DEVELOPMENT OF A GRID-BASED WATERSHED MERCURY LOADING MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

A distributed grid-based watershed mercury loading model has been developed to characterize spatial and temporal dynamics of mercury from both point and non-point sources. The model simulates flow, sediment transport, and mercury dynamics on a daily time step across a diverse lan...

Neural and Behavioral Evidence for the Role of Mental Simulation in Meaning in Life

PubMed Central

Waytz, Adam; Hershfield, Hal E; Tamir, Diana I

2014-01-01

Mental simulation, the process of self-projection into alternate temporal, spatial, social, or hypothetical realities is a distinctively human capacity. Numerous lines of research also suggest that the tendency for mental simulation is associated with enhanced meaning. The present research tests this association specifically examining the relationship between two forms of simulation (temporal and spatial) and meaning in life. Study 1 uses neuroimaging to demonstrate that enhanced connectivity in the medial temporal lobe network, a subnetwork of the brain’s default network implicated in prospection and retrospection, correlates with self-reported meaning in life. Study 2 demonstrates that experimentally inducing people to think about the past or future versus the present enhances self-reported meaning in life, through the generation of more meaningful events. Study 3 demonstrates that experimentally inducing people to think specifically versus generally about the past or future enhances self-reported meaning in life. Study 4 turns to spatial simulation to demonstrate that experimentally inducing people to think specifically about an alternate spatial location (from the present) increases meaning derived from this simulation compared to thinking generally about another location or specifically about one’s present location. Study 5 demonstrates that experimentally inducing people to think about an alternate spatial location versus one’s present location enhances meaning in life, through meaning derived from this simulation. Study 6 demonstrates that simply asking people to imagine completing a measure of meaning in life in an alternate location compared to asking them to do so in their present location enhances reports of meaning. This research sheds light on an important determinant of meaning in life and suggests that undirected mental simulation benefits psychological well-being. PMID:25603379

Spatial and Temporal Uncertainty of Crop Yield Aggregations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Porwollik, Vera; Mueller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Iizumi, Toshichika; Ray, Deepak K.; Ruane, Alex C.; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe;

Linking Temporal-Optimization and Spatial-Simulation Models for Forest Planning

Treesearch

Larry A. Leefers; Eric J. Gustafson; Phillip Freeman

2003-01-01

Increasingly, resource management agencies and researchers have turned their analysis and modeling efforts towards spatial and temporal information. This is driven by the need to address wildlife concerns, landscape issues, and social/economic questions. Historically, the USDA Forest Service has used optimization models (i.e., FORPLAN and Spectrum) for timber harvest...

Scaling Properties of Arctic Sea Ice Deformation in a High‐Resolution Viscous‐Plastic Sea Ice Model and in Satellite Observations

PubMed Central

Losch, Martin; Menemenlis, Dimitris

2018-01-01

Abstract Sea ice models with the traditional viscous‐plastic (VP) rheology and very small horizontal grid spacing can resolve leads and deformation rates localized along Linear Kinematic Features (LKF). In a 1 km pan‐Arctic sea ice‐ocean simulation, the small‐scale sea ice deformations are evaluated with a scaling analysis in relation to satellite observations of the Envisat Geophysical Processor System (EGPS) in the Central Arctic. A new coupled scaling analysis for data on Eulerian grids is used to determine the spatial and temporal scaling and the coupling between temporal and spatial scales. The spatial scaling of the modeled sea ice deformation implies multifractality. It is also coupled to temporal scales and varies realistically by region and season. The agreement of the spatial scaling with satellite observations challenges previous results with VP models at coarser resolution, which did not reproduce the observed scaling. The temporal scaling analysis shows that the VP model, as configured in this 1 km simulation, does not fully resolve the intermittency of sea ice deformation that is observed in satellite data. PMID:29576996

Scaling Properties of Arctic Sea Ice Deformation in a High-Resolution Viscous-Plastic Sea Ice Model and in Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutter, Nils; Losch, Martin; Menemenlis, Dimitris

2018-01-01

Sea ice models with the traditional viscous-plastic (VP) rheology and very small horizontal grid spacing can resolve leads and deformation rates localized along Linear Kinematic Features (LKF). In a 1 km pan-Arctic sea ice-ocean simulation, the small-scale sea ice deformations are evaluated with a scaling analysis in relation to satellite observations of the Envisat Geophysical Processor System (EGPS) in the Central Arctic. A new coupled scaling analysis for data on Eulerian grids is used to determine the spatial and temporal scaling and the coupling between temporal and spatial scales. The spatial scaling of the modeled sea ice deformation implies multifractality. It is also coupled to temporal scales and varies realistically by region and season. The agreement of the spatial scaling with satellite observations challenges previous results with VP models at coarser resolution, which did not reproduce the observed scaling. The temporal scaling analysis shows that the VP model, as configured in this 1 km simulation, does not fully resolve the intermittency of sea ice deformation that is observed in satellite data.

Scaling Properties of Arctic Sea Ice Deformation in a High-Resolution Viscous-Plastic Sea Ice Model and in Satellite Observations.

PubMed

Hutter, Nils; Losch, Martin; Menemenlis, Dimitris

2018-01-01

Sea ice models with the traditional viscous-plastic (VP) rheology and very small horizontal grid spacing can resolve leads and deformation rates localized along Linear Kinematic Features (LKF). In a 1 km pan-Arctic sea ice-ocean simulation, the small-scale sea ice deformations are evaluated with a scaling analysis in relation to satellite observations of the Envisat Geophysical Processor System (EGPS) in the Central Arctic. A new coupled scaling analysis for data on Eulerian grids is used to determine the spatial and temporal scaling and the coupling between temporal and spatial scales. The spatial scaling of the modeled sea ice deformation implies multifractality. It is also coupled to temporal scales and varies realistically by region and season. The agreement of the spatial scaling with satellite observations challenges previous results with VP models at coarser resolution, which did not reproduce the observed scaling. The temporal scaling analysis shows that the VP model, as configured in this 1 km simulation, does not fully resolve the intermittency of sea ice deformation that is observed in satellite data.

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Pandemic SARS Spread in Mainland China.

PubMed

Cao, Chunxiang; Chen, Wei; Zheng, Sheng; Zhao, Jian; Wang, Jinfeng; Cao, Wuchun

2016-01-01

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is one of the most severe emerging infectious diseases of the 21st century so far. SARS caused a pandemic that spread throughout mainland China for 7 months, infecting 5318 persons in 194 administrative regions. Using detailed mainland China epidemiological data, we study spatiotemporal aspects of this person-to-person contagious disease and simulate its spatiotemporal transmission dynamics via the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method. The BME reveals that SARS outbreaks show autocorrelation within certain spatial and temporal distances. We use BME to fit a theoretical covariance model that has a sine hole spatial component and exponential temporal component and obtain the weights of geographical and temporal autocorrelation factors. Using the covariance model, SARS dynamics were estimated and simulated under the most probable conditions. Our study suggests that SARS transmission varies in its epidemiological characteristics and SARS outbreak distributions exhibit palpable clusters on both spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the BME modelling demonstrates that SARS transmission features are affected by spatial heterogeneity, so we analyze potential causes. This may benefit epidemiological control of pandemic infectious diseases.

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Pandemic SARS Spread in Mainland China

PubMed Central

Cao, Chunxiang; Zheng, Sheng; Zhao, Jian; Wang, Jinfeng; Cao, Wuchun

2016-01-01

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is one of the most severe emerging infectious diseases of the 21st century so far. SARS caused a pandemic that spread throughout mainland China for 7 months, infecting 5318 persons in 194 administrative regions. Using detailed mainland China epidemiological data, we study spatiotemporal aspects of this person-to-person contagious disease and simulate its spatiotemporal transmission dynamics via the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method. The BME reveals that SARS outbreaks show autocorrelation within certain spatial and temporal distances. We use BME to fit a theoretical covariance model that has a sine hole spatial component and exponential temporal component and obtain the weights of geographical and temporal autocorrelation factors. Using the covariance model, SARS dynamics were estimated and simulated under the most probable conditions. Our study suggests that SARS transmission varies in its epidemiological characteristics and SARS outbreak distributions exhibit palpable clusters on both spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the BME modelling demonstrates that SARS transmission features are affected by spatial heterogeneity, so we analyze potential causes. This may benefit epidemiological control of pandemic infectious diseases. PMID:27597972

Spatio-Temporal Process Simulation of Dam-Break Flood Based on SPH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, H.; Ye, F.; Ouyang, S.; Li, Z.

2018-04-01

On the basis of introducing the SPH (Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics) simulation method, the key research problems were given solutions in this paper, which ere the spatial scale and temporal scale adapting to the GIS(Geographical Information System) application, the boundary condition equations combined with the underlying surface, and the kernel function and parameters applicable to dam-break flood simulation. In this regards, a calculation method of spatio-temporal process emulation with elaborate particles for dam-break flood was proposed. Moreover the spatio-temporal process was dynamic simulated by using GIS modelling and visualization. The results show that the method gets more information, objectiveness and real situations.

Population-level differences in disease transmission: A Bayesian analysis of multiple smallpox epidemics

PubMed Central

Elderd, Bret D.; Dwyer, Greg; Dukic, Vanja

2013-01-01

Estimates of a disease’s basic reproductive rate R0 play a central role in understanding outbreaks and planning intervention strategies. In many calculations of R0, a simplifying assumption is that different host populations have effectively identical transmission rates. This assumption can lead to an underestimate of the overall uncertainty associated with R0, which, due to the non-linearity of epidemic processes, may result in a mis-estimate of epidemic intensity and miscalculated expenditures associated with public-health interventions. In this paper, we utilize a Bayesian method for quantifying the overall uncertainty arising from differences in population-specific basic reproductive rates. Using this method, we fit spatial and non-spatial susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) models to a series of 13 smallpox outbreaks. Five outbreaks occurred in populations that had been previously exposed to smallpox, while the remaining eight occurred in Native-American populations that were naïve to the disease at the time. The Native-American outbreaks were close in a spatial and temporal sense. Using Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), we show that the best model includes population-specific R0 values. These differences in R0 values may, in part, be due to differences in genetic background, social structure, or food and water availability. As a result of these inter-population differences, the overall uncertainty associated with the “population average” value of smallpox R0 is larger, a finding that can have important consequences for controlling epidemics. In general, Bayesian hierarchical models are able to properly account for the uncertainty associated with multiple epidemics, provide a clearer understanding of variability in epidemic dynamics, and yield a better assessment of the range of potential risks and consequences that decision makers face. PMID:24021521

The development of the rhizosphere: simulation of root exudation for two contrasting exudates: citrate and mucilage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Cheng; Bol, Roland; Vetterlein, Doris; Vanderborght, Jan; Schnepf, Andrea

2017-04-01

Different types of root exudates and their effect on soil/rhizosphere properties have received a lot of attention. Since their influence of rhizosphere properties and processes depends on their concentration in the soil, the assessment of the spatial-temporal exudate concentration distribution around roots is of key importance for understanding the functioning of the rhizosphere. Different root systems have different root architectures. Different types of root exudates diffuse in the rhizosphere with different diffusion coefficient. Both of them are responsible for the dynamics of exudate concentration distribution in the rhizosphere. Hence, simulations of root exudation involving four kinds of plant root systems (Vicia faba, Lupinus albus, Triticum aestivum and Zea mays) and two kinds of root exudates (citrate and mucilage) were conducted. We consider a simplified root architecture where each root is represented by a straight line. Assuming that root tips move at a constant velocity and that mucilage transport is linear, concentration distributions can be obtained from a convolution of the analytical solution of the transport equation in a stationary flow field for an instantaneous point source injection with the spatial-temporal distribution of the source strength. By coupling the analytical equation with a root growth model that delivers the spatial-temporal source term, we simulated exudate concentration distributions for citrate and mucilage with MATLAB. From the simulation results, we inferred the following information about the rhizosphere: (a) the dynamics of the root architecture development is the main effect of exudate distribution in the root zone; (b) a steady rhizosphere with constant width is more likely to develop for individual roots when the diffusion coefficient is small. The simulations suggest that rhizosphere development depends in the following way on the root and exudate properties: the dynamics of the root architecture result in various development patterns of the rhizosphere. Meanwhile, Results improve our understanding of the impact of the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of exudate input on rhizosphere development for different root system types and substances. In future work, we will use the simulation tool to infer critical parameters that determine the spatial-temporal extent of the rhizosphere from experimental data.

ML-Space: Hybrid Spatial Gillespie and Particle Simulation of Multi-Level Rule-Based Models in Cell Biology.

PubMed

Bittig, Arne T; Uhrmacher, Adelinde M

2017-01-01

Spatio-temporal dynamics of cellular processes can be simulated at different levels of detail, from (deterministic) partial differential equations via the spatial Stochastic Simulation algorithm to tracking Brownian trajectories of individual particles. We present a spatial simulation approach for multi-level rule-based models, which includes dynamically hierarchically nested cellular compartments and entities. Our approach ML-Space combines discrete compartmental dynamics, stochastic spatial approaches in discrete space, and particles moving in continuous space. The rule-based specification language of ML-Space supports concise and compact descriptions of models and to adapt the spatial resolution of models easily.

Water quality modeling in the dead end sections of drinking water distribution networks.

PubMed

Abokifa, Ahmed A; Yang, Y Jeffrey; Lo, Cynthia S; Biswas, Pratim

2016-02-01

Dead-end sections of drinking water distribution networks are known to be problematic zones in terms of water quality degradation. Extended residence time due to water stagnation leads to rapid reduction of disinfectant residuals allowing the regrowth of microbial pathogens. Water quality models developed so far apply spatial aggregation and temporal averaging techniques for hydraulic parameters by assigning hourly averaged water demands to the main nodes of the network. Although this practice has generally resulted in minimal loss of accuracy for the predicted disinfectant concentrations in main water transmission lines, this is not the case for the peripheries of the distribution network. This study proposes a new approach for simulating disinfectant residuals in dead end pipes while accounting for both spatial and temporal variability in hydraulic and transport parameters. A stochastic demand generator was developed to represent residential water pulses based on a non-homogenous Poisson process. Dispersive solute transport was considered using highly dynamic dispersion rates. A genetic algorithm was used to calibrate the axial hydraulic profile of the dead-end pipe based on the different demand shares of the withdrawal nodes. A parametric sensitivity analysis was done to assess the model performance under variation of different simulation parameters. A group of Monte-Carlo ensembles was carried out to investigate the influence of spatial and temporal variations in flow demands on the simulation accuracy. A set of three correction factors were analytically derived to adjust residence time, dispersion rate and wall demand to overcome simulation error caused by spatial aggregation approximation. The current model results show better agreement with field-measured concentrations of conservative fluoride tracer and free chlorine disinfectant than the simulations of recent advection dispersion reaction models published in the literature. Accuracy of the simulated concentration profiles showed significant dependence on the spatial distribution of the flow demands compared to temporal variation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydroclimatic Controls on the Means and Variability of Vegetation Phenology and Carbon Uptake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal Dean; Walker, Gregory K.; Collatz, George J.; Thornton, Peter E.

2013-01-01

Long-term, global offline (land-only) simulations with a dynamic vegetation phenology model are used to examine the control of hydroclimate over vegetation-related quantities. First, with a control simulation, the model is shown to capture successfully (though with some bias) key observed relationships between hydroclimate and the spatial and temporal variations of phenological expression. In subsequent simulations, the model shows that: (i) the global spatial variation of seasonal phenological maxima is controlled mostly by hydroclimate, irrespective of distributions in vegetation type, (ii) the occurrence of high interannual moisture-related phenological variability in grassland areas is determined by hydroclimate rather than by the specific properties of grassland, and (iii) hydroclimatic means and variability have a corresponding impact on the spatial and temporal distributions of gross primary productivity (GPP).

Scaling of hydrologic and erosion parameters derived from rainfall simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, Gary; Lane, Patrick; Noske, Philip; Sherwin, Christopher

2010-05-01

Rainfall simulation experiments conducted at the temporal scale of minutes and the spatial scale of meters are often used to derive parameters for erosion and water quality models that operate at much larger temporal and spatial scales. While such parameterization is convenient, there has been little effort to validate this approach via nested experiments across these scales. In this paper we first review the literature relevant to some of these long acknowledged issues. We then present rainfall simulation and erosion plot data from a range of sources, including mining, roading, and forestry, to explore the issues associated with the scaling of parameters such as infiltration properties and erodibility coefficients.

Neuromorphic infrared focal plane performs sensor fusion on-plane local-contrast-enhancement spatial and temporal filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massie, Mark A.; Woolaway, James T., II; Curzan, Jon P.; McCarley, Paul L.

1993-08-01

An infrared focal plane has been simulated, designed and fabricated which mimics the form and function of the vertebrate retina. The `Neuromorphic' focal plane has the capability of performing pixel-based sensor fusion and real-time local contrast enhancement, much like the response of the human eye. The device makes use of an indium antimonide detector array with a 3 - 5 micrometers spectral response, and a switched capacitor resistive network to compute a real-time 2D spatial average. This device permits the summation of other sensor outputs to be combined on-chip with the infrared detections of the focal plane itself. The resulting real-time analog processed information thus represents the combined information of many sensors with the advantage that analog spatial and temporal signal processing is performed at the focal plane. A Gaussian subtraction method is used to produce the pixel output which when displayed produces an image with enhanced edges, representing spatial and temporal derivatives in the scene. The spatial and temporal responses of the device are tunable during operation, permitting the operator to `peak up' the response of the array to spatial and temporally varying signals. Such an array adapts to ambient illumination conditions without loss of detection performance. This paper reviews the Neuromorphic infrared focal plane from initial operational simulations to detailed design characteristics, and concludes with a presentation of preliminary operational data for the device as well as videotaped imagery.

Determination of Flaw Size and Depth From Temporal Evolution of Thermal Response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winfree, William P.; Zalameda, Joseph N.; Cramer, Elliott; Howell, Patricia A.

2015-01-01

Simple methods for reducing the pulsed thermographic responses of flaws have tended to be based on either the spatial or temporal response. This independent assessment limits the accuracy of characterization. A variational approach is presented for reducing the thermographic data to produce an estimated size for a flaw that incorporates both the temporal and spatial response to improve the characterization. The size and depth are determined from both the temporal and spatial thermal response of the exterior surface above a flaw and constraints on the length of the contour surrounding the delamination. Examples of the application of the technique to simulation and experimental data acquired are presented to investigate the limitations of the technique.

Atomistic observation and simulation analysis of spatio-temporal fluctuations during radiation-induced amorphization.

PubMed

Watanabe, Seiichi; Hoshino, Misaki; Koike, Takuto; Suda, Takanori; Ohnuki, Soumei; Takahashi, Heishichirou; Lam, Nighi Q

2003-01-01

We performed a dynamical-atomistic study of radiation-induced amorphization in the NiTi intermetallic compound using in situ high-resolution high-voltage electron microscopy and molecular dynamics simulations in connection with image simulation. Spatio-temporal fluctuations as non-equilibrium fluctuations in an energy-dissipative system, due to transient atom-cluster formation during amorphization, were revealed by the present spatial autocorrelation analysis.

A new SEIR epidemic model with applications to the theory of eradication and control of diseases, and to the calculation of R0.

PubMed

Huang, Sen-Zhong

2008-09-01

We present a novel SEIR (susceptible-exposure-infective-recovered) model that is suitable for modeling the eradication of diseases by mass vaccination or control of diseases by case isolation combined with contact tracing, incorporating the vaccine efficacy or the control efficacy into the model. Moreover, relying on this novel SEIR model and some probabilistic arguments, we have found four formulas that are suitable for estimating the basic reproductive numbers R(0) in terms of the ratio of the mean infectious period to the mean latent period of a disease. The ranges of R(0) for most known diseases, that are calculated by our formulas, coincide very well with the values of R(0) estimated by the usual method of fitting the models to observed data.

[Temporal and spatial heterogeneity analysis of optimal value of sensitive parameters in ecological process model: The BIOME-BGC model as an example.

PubMed

Li, Yi Zhe; Zhang, Ting Long; Liu, Qiu Yu; Li, Ying

2018-01-01

The ecological process models are powerful tools for studying terrestrial ecosystem water and carbon cycle at present. However, there are many parameters for these models, and weather the reasonable values of these parameters were taken, have important impact on the models simulation results. In the past, the sensitivity and the optimization of model parameters were analyzed and discussed in many researches. But the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal parameters is less concerned. In this paper, the BIOME-BGC model was used as an example. In the evergreen broad-leaved forest, deciduous broad-leaved forest and C3 grassland, the sensitive parameters of the model were selected by constructing the sensitivity judgment index with two experimental sites selected under each vegetation type. The objective function was constructed by using the simulated annealing algorithm combined with the flux data to obtain the monthly optimal values of the sensitive parameters at each site. Then we constructed the temporal heterogeneity judgment index, the spatial heterogeneity judgment index and the temporal and spatial heterogeneity judgment index to quantitatively analyze the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal values of the model sensitive parameters. The results showed that the sensitivity of BIOME-BGC model parameters was different under different vegetation types, but the selected sensitive parameters were mostly consistent. The optimal values of the sensitive parameters of BIOME-BGC model mostly presented time-space heterogeneity to different degrees which varied with vegetation types. The sensitive parameters related to vegetation physiology and ecology had relatively little temporal and spatial heterogeneity while those related to environment and phenology had generally larger temporal and spatial heterogeneity. In addition, the temporal heterogeneity of the optimal values of the model sensitive parameters showed a significant linear correlation with the spatial heterogeneity under the three vegetation types. According to the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal values, the parameters of the BIOME-BGC model could be classified in order to adopt different parameter strategies in practical application. The conclusion could help to deeply understand the parameters and the optimal values of the ecological process models, and provide a way or reference for obtaining the reasonable values of parameters in models application.

Constructing rigorous and broad biosurveillance networks for detecting emerging zoonotic outbreaks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Mac; Moore, Leslie; McMahon, Benjamin

Determining optimal surveillance networks for an emerging pathogen is difficult since it is not known beforehand what the characteristics of a pathogen will be or where it will emerge. The resources for surveillance of infectious diseases in animals and wildlife are often limited and mathematical modeling can play a supporting role in examining a wide range of scenarios of pathogen spread. We demonstrate how a hierarchy of mathematical and statistical tools can be used in surveillance planning help guide successful surveillance and mitigation policies for a wide range of zoonotic pathogens. The model forecasts can help clarify the complexities ofmore » potential scenarios, and optimize biosurveillance programs for rapidly detecting infectious diseases. Using the highly pathogenic zoonotic H5N1 avian influenza 2006-2007 epidemic in Nigeria as an example, we determined the risk for infection for localized areas in an outbreak and designed biosurveillance stations that are effective for different pathogen strains and a range of possible outbreak locations. We created a general multi-scale, multi-host stochastic SEIR epidemiological network model, with both short and long-range movement, to simulate the spread of an infectious disease through Nigerian human, poultry, backyard duck, and wild bird populations. We chose parameter ranges specific to avian influenza (but not to a particular strain) and used a Latin hypercube sample experimental design to investigate epidemic predictions in a thousand simulations. We ranked the risk of local regions by the number of times they became infected in the ensemble of simulations. These spatial statistics were then complied into a potential risk map of infection. Finally, we validated the results with a known outbreak, using spatial analysis of all the simulation runs to show the progression matched closely with the observed location of the farms infected in the 2006-2007 epidemic.« less

Constructing rigorous and broad biosurveillance networks for detecting emerging zoonotic outbreaks

DOE PAGES

Brown, Mac; Moore, Leslie; McMahon, Benjamin; ...

2015-05-06

Determining optimal surveillance networks for an emerging pathogen is difficult since it is not known beforehand what the characteristics of a pathogen will be or where it will emerge. The resources for surveillance of infectious diseases in animals and wildlife are often limited and mathematical modeling can play a supporting role in examining a wide range of scenarios of pathogen spread. We demonstrate how a hierarchy of mathematical and statistical tools can be used in surveillance planning help guide successful surveillance and mitigation policies for a wide range of zoonotic pathogens. The model forecasts can help clarify the complexities ofmore » potential scenarios, and optimize biosurveillance programs for rapidly detecting infectious diseases. Using the highly pathogenic zoonotic H5N1 avian influenza 2006-2007 epidemic in Nigeria as an example, we determined the risk for infection for localized areas in an outbreak and designed biosurveillance stations that are effective for different pathogen strains and a range of possible outbreak locations. We created a general multi-scale, multi-host stochastic SEIR epidemiological network model, with both short and long-range movement, to simulate the spread of an infectious disease through Nigerian human, poultry, backyard duck, and wild bird populations. We chose parameter ranges specific to avian influenza (but not to a particular strain) and used a Latin hypercube sample experimental design to investigate epidemic predictions in a thousand simulations. We ranked the risk of local regions by the number of times they became infected in the ensemble of simulations. These spatial statistics were then complied into a potential risk map of infection. Finally, we validated the results with a known outbreak, using spatial analysis of all the simulation runs to show the progression matched closely with the observed location of the farms infected in the 2006-2007 epidemic.« less

Impact of spatial and temporal aggregation of input parameters on the assessment of irrigation scheme performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorite, I. J.; Mateos, L.; Fereres, E.

2005-01-01

SummaryThe simulations of dynamic, spatially distributed non-linear models are impacted by the degree of spatial and temporal aggregation of their input parameters and variables. This paper deals with the impact of these aggregations on the assessment of irrigation scheme performance by simulating water use and crop yield. The analysis was carried out on a 7000 ha irrigation scheme located in Southern Spain. Four irrigation seasons differing in rainfall patterns were simulated (from 1996/1997 to 1999/2000) with the actual soil parameters and with hypothetical soil parameters representing wider ranges of soil variability. Three spatial aggregation levels were considered: (I) individual parcels (about 800), (II) command areas (83) and (III) the whole irrigation scheme. Equally, five temporal aggregation levels were defined: daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and annually. The results showed little impact of spatial aggregation in the predictions of irrigation requirements and of crop yield for the scheme. The impact of aggregation was greater in rainy years, for deep-rooted crops (sunflower) and in scenarios with heterogeneous soils. The highest impact on irrigation requirement estimations was in the scenario of most heterogeneous soil and in 1999/2000, a year with frequent rainfall during the irrigation season: difference of 7% between aggregation levels I and III was found. Equally, it was found that temporal aggregation had only significant impact on irrigation requirements predictions for time steps longer than 4 months. In general, simulated annual irrigation requirements decreased as the time step increased. The impact was greater in rainy years (specially with abundant and concentrated rain events) and in crops which cycles coincide in part with the rainy season (garlic, winter cereals and olive). It is concluded that in this case, average, representative values for the main inputs of the model (crop, soil properties and sowing dates) can generate results within 1% of those obtained by providing spatially specific values for about 800 parcels.

Design, development, and application of LANDIS-II, a spatial landscape simulation model with flexible temporal and spatial resolution

Treesearch

Robert M. Scheller; James B. Domingo; Brian R. Sturtevant; Jeremy S. Williams; Arnold Rudy; Eric J. Gustafson; David J. Mladenoff

2007-01-01

We introduce LANDIS-II, a landscape model designed to simulate forest succession and disturbances. LANDIS-II builds upon and preserves the functionality of previous LANDIS forest landscape simulation models. LANDIS-II is distinguished by the inclusion of variable time steps for different ecological processes; our use of a rigorous development and testing process used...

Nonlinear model of epidemic spreading in a complex social network.

PubMed

Kosiński, Robert A; Grabowski, A

2007-10-01

The epidemic spreading in a human society is a complex process, which can be described on the basis of a nonlinear mathematical model. In such an approach the complex and hierarchical structure of social network (which has implications for the spreading of pathogens and can be treated as a complex network), can be taken into account. In our model each individual has one of the four permitted states: susceptible, infected, infective, unsusceptible or dead. This refers to the SEIR model used in epidemiology. The state of an individual changes in time, depending on the previous state and the interactions with other individuals. The description of the interpersonal contacts is based on the experimental observations of the social relations in the community. It includes spatial localization of the individuals and hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions. Numerical simulations were performed for different types of epidemics, giving the progress of a spreading process and typical relationships (e.g. range of epidemic in time, the epidemic curve). The spreading process has a complex and spatially chaotic character. The time dependence of the number of infective individuals shows the nonlinear character of the spreading process. We investigate the influence of the preventive vaccinations on the spreading process. In particular, for a critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals the percolation threshold is observed and the epidemic is suppressed.

Density thresholds for Mopeia virus invasion and persistence in its host Mastomys natalensis.

PubMed

Goyens, J; Reijniers, J; Borremans, B; Leirs, H

2013-01-21

Well-established theoretical models predict host density thresholds for invasion and persistence of parasites with a density-dependent transmission. Studying such thresholds in reality, however, is not obvious because it requires long-term data for several fluctuating populations of different size. We developed a spatially explicit and individual-based SEIR model of Mopeia virus in multimammate mice Mastomys natalensis. This is an interesting model system for studying abundance thresholds because the host is the most common African rodent, populations fluctuate considerably and the virus is closely related to Lassa virus but non-pathogenic to humans so can be studied safely in the field. The simulations show that, while host density clearly is important, sharp thresholds are only to be expected for persistence (and not for invasion), since at short time-spans (as during invasion), stochasticity is determining. Besides host density, also the spatial extent of the host population is important. We observe the repeated local occurrence of herd immunity, leading to a decrease in transmission of the virus, while even a limited amount of dispersal can have a strong influence in spreading and re-igniting the transmission. The model is most sensitive to the duration of the infectious stage, the size of the home range and the transmission coefficient, so these are important factors to determine experimentally in the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correlated patterns in hydrothermal plume distribution and apparent magmatic budget along 2500 km of the Southeast Indian Ridge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baker, Edward; Christophe Hémond,; Anne Briais,; Marcia Maia,; Scheirer, Daniel S.; Sharon L. Walker,; Tingting Wang,; Yongshun John Chen,

2014-01-01

Multiple geological processes affect the distribution of hydrothermal venting along a mid-ocean ridge. Deciphering the role of a specific process is often frustrated by simultaneous changes in other influences. Here we take advantage of the almost constant spreading rate (65–71 mm/yr) along 2500 km of the Southeast Indian Ridge (SEIR) between 77°E and 99°E to examine the spatial density of hydrothermal venting relative to regional and segment-scale changes in the apparent magmatic budget. We use 227 vertical profiles of light backscatter and (on 41 profiles) oxidation-reduction potential along 27 first and second-order ridge segments on and adjacent to the Amsterdam-St. Paul (ASP) Plateau to map ph, the fraction of casts detecting a plume. At the regional scale, venting on the five segments crossing the magma-thickened hot spot plateau is almost entirely suppressed (ph = 0.02). Conversely, the combined ph (0.34) from all other segments follows the global trend of ph versus spreading rate. Off the ASP Plateau, multisegment trends in ph track trends in the regional axial depth, high where regional depth increases and low where it decreases. At the individual segment scale, a robust correlation between ph and cross-axis inflation for first-order segments shows that different magmatic budgets among first-order segments are expressed as different levels of hydrothermal spatial density. This correlation is absent among second-order segments. Eighty-five percent of the plumes occur in eight clusters totaling ∼350 km. We hypothesize that these clusters are a minimum estimate of the length of axial melt lenses underlying this section of the SEIR.

Correlated patterns in hydrothermal plume distribution and apparent magmatic budget along 2500 km of the Southeast Indian Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Edward T.; Hémond, Christophe; Briais, Anne; Maia, Marcia; Scheirer, Daniel S.; Walker, Sharon L.; Wang, Tingting; Chen, Yongshun John

2014-08-01

Multiple geological processes affect the distribution of hydrothermal venting along a mid-ocean ridge. Deciphering the role of a specific process is often frustrated by simultaneous changes in other influences. Here we take advantage of the almost constant spreading rate (65-71 mm/yr) along 2500 km of the Southeast Indian Ridge (SEIR) between 77°E and 99°E to examine the spatial density of hydrothermal venting relative to regional and segment-scale changes in the apparent magmatic budget. We use 227 vertical profiles of light backscatter and (on 41 profiles) oxidation-reduction potential along 27 first and second-order ridge segments on and adjacent to the Amsterdam-St. Paul (ASP) Plateau to map ph, the fraction of casts detecting a plume. At the regional scale, venting on the five segments crossing the magma-thickened hot spot plateau is almost entirely suppressed (ph = 0.02). Conversely, the combined ph (0.34) from all other segments follows the global trend of ph versus spreading rate. Off the ASP Plateau, multisegment trends in ph track trends in the regional axial depth, high where regional depth increases and low where it decreases. At the individual segment scale, a robust correlation between ph and cross-axis inflation for first-order segments shows that different magmatic budgets among first-order segments are expressed as different levels of hydrothermal spatial density. This correlation is absent among second-order segments. Eighty-five percent of the plumes occur in eight clusters totaling ˜350 km. We hypothesize that these clusters are a minimum estimate of the length of axial melt lenses underlying this section of the SEIR.

a Spiral-Based Downscaling Method for Generating 30 M Time Series Image Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, B.; Chen, J.; Xing, H.; Wu, H.; Zhang, J.

2017-09-01

The spatial detail and updating frequency of land cover data are important factors influencing land surface dynamic monitoring applications in high spatial resolution scale. However, the fragmentized patches and seasonal variable of some land cover types (e. g. small crop field, wetland) make it labor-intensive and difficult in the generation of land cover data. Utilizing the high spatial resolution multi-temporal image data is a possible solution. Unfortunately, the spatial and temporal resolution of available remote sensing data like Landsat or MODIS datasets can hardly satisfy the minimum mapping unit and frequency of current land cover mapping / updating at the same time. The generation of high resolution time series may be a compromise to cover the shortage in land cover updating process. One of popular way is to downscale multi-temporal MODIS data with other high spatial resolution auxiliary data like Landsat. But the usual manner of downscaling pixel based on a window may lead to the underdetermined problem in heterogeneous area, result in the uncertainty of some high spatial resolution pixels. Therefore, the downscaled multi-temporal data can hardly reach high spatial resolution as Landsat data. A spiral based method was introduced to downscale low spatial and high temporal resolution image data to high spatial and high temporal resolution image data. By the way of searching the similar pixels around the adjacent region based on the spiral, the pixel set was made up in the adjacent region pixel by pixel. The underdetermined problem is prevented to a large extent from solving the linear system when adopting the pixel set constructed. With the help of ordinary least squares, the method inverted the endmember values of linear system. The high spatial resolution image was reconstructed on the basis of high spatial resolution class map and the endmember values band by band. Then, the high spatial resolution time series was formed with these high spatial resolution images image by image. Simulated experiment and remote sensing image downscaling experiment were conducted. In simulated experiment, the 30 meters class map dataset Globeland30 was adopted to investigate the effect on avoid the underdetermined problem in downscaling procedure and a comparison between spiral and window was conducted. Further, the MODIS NDVI and Landsat image data was adopted to generate the 30m time series NDVI in remote sensing image downscaling experiment. Simulated experiment results showed that the proposed method had a robust performance in downscaling pixel in heterogeneous region and indicated that it was superior to the traditional window-based methods. The high resolution time series generated may be a benefit to the mapping and updating of land cover data.

Combining a Complex Network Approach and a SEIR Compartmental Model to link Fast Spreading of Infectious Diseases with Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenner, F.; Hoffmann, P.; Marwan, N.

2016-12-01

Infectious diseases are a major threat to human health. The spreading of airborne diseases has become fast and hard to predict. Global air travelling created a network which allows a pathogen to migrate worldwide in only a few days. Pandemics of SARS (2002/03) and H1N1 (2009) have impressively shown the epidemiological danger in a strongly connected world. In this study we simulate the outbreak of an airborne infectious disease that is directly transmitted from human to human. We use a regular Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model and a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental approach with the basis of a complex network built by global air traffic data (from openflights.org). Local Disease propagation is modeled with a global population dataset (from SEDAC and MaxMind) and parameterizations of human behavior regarding mobility, contacts and awareness. As a final component we combine the worldwide outbreak simulation with daily averaged climate data from WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Here we focus on Influenza-like illnesses (ILI), whose transmission rate has a dependency on relative humidity and temperature. Even small changes in relative humidity are sufficient to trigger significant differences in the global outbreak behavior. Apart from the direct effect of climate change on the transmission of airborne diseases, there are indirect ramifications that alter spreading patterns. For example seasonal changing human mobility is influenced by climate settings.

Spatiotemporal multivariate mixture models for Bayesian model selection in disease mapping.

PubMed

Lawson, A B; Carroll, R; Faes, C; Kirby, R S; Aregay, M; Watjou, K

2017-12-01

It is often the case that researchers wish to simultaneously explore the behavior of and estimate overall risk for multiple, related diseases with varying rarity while accounting for potential spatial and/or temporal correlation. In this paper, we propose a flexible class of multivariate spatio-temporal mixture models to fill this role. Further, these models offer flexibility with the potential for model selection as well as the ability to accommodate lifestyle, socio-economic, and physical environmental variables with spatial, temporal, or both structures. Here, we explore the capability of this approach via a large scale simulation study and examine a motivating data example involving three cancers in South Carolina. The results which are focused on four model variants suggest that all models possess the ability to recover simulation ground truth and display improved model fit over two baseline Knorr-Held spatio-temporal interaction model variants in a real data application.

GIS and agent based spatial-temporal simulation modeling for assessing tourism social carrying capacity: a study on Mount Emei scenic area, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Renjun

2007-06-01

Each scenic area can sustain a specific level of acceptance of tourist development and use, beyond which further development can result in socio-cultural deterioration or a decline in the quality of the experience gained by visitors. This specific level is called carrying capacity. Social carrying capacity can be defined as the maximum level of use (in terms of numbers and activities) that can be absorbed by an area without an unacceptable decline in the quality of experience of visitors and without an unacceptable adverse impact on the society of the area. It is difficult to assess the carrying capacity, because the carrying capacity is determined by not only the number of visitors, but also the time, the type of the recreation, the characters of each individual and the physical environment. The objective of this study is to build a spatial-temporal simulation model to simulate the spatial-temporal distribution of tourists. This model is a tourist spatial behaviors simulator (TSBS). Based on TSBS, the changes of each visitor's travel patterns such as location, cost, and other states data are recoded in a state table. By analyzing this table, the intensity of the tourist use in any area can be calculated; the changes of the quality of tourism experience can be quantized and analyzed. So based on this micro simulation method the social carrying capacity can be assessed more accurately, can be monitored proactively and managed adaptively. In this paper, the carrying capacity of Mount Emei scenic area is analyzed as followed: The author selected the intensity of the crowd as the monitoring Indicators. it is regarded that longer waiting time means more crowded. TSBS was used to simulate the spatial-temporal distribution of tourists. the average of waiting time all the visitors is calculated. And then the author assessed the social carrying capacity of Mount Emei scenic area, found the key factors have impacted on social carrying capacity. The results show that the TSBS-aided method for assessing carrying capacity is dynamic, quantifiable and more accurate.

Understand the Air-Sea Coupling Processes in High Wind Conditions Using a Synthesized Data Analysis/modeling Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-30

secondary gap outflow that appeared in COAMPS simulations ( Cherrett 2006). Figure 3d shows similar SST spatial variations as in Fig. 3c with slight... Cherrett , R. C. 2006: Observed and Simulated temporal and spatial variations of the gap outflow region, M.S. Thesis, Meteorology Department, Naval

Simulating spatial and temporally related fire weather

Treesearch

Isaac C. Grenfell; Mark Finney; Matt Jolly

2010-01-01

Use of fire behavior models has assumed an increasingly important role for managers of wildfire incidents to make strategic decisions. For fire risk assessments and danger rating at very large spatial scales, these models depend on fire weather variables or fire danger indices. Here, we describe a method to simulate fire weather at a national scale that captures the...

Spatio-temporal Eigenvector Filtering: Application on Bioenergy Crop Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Kamarianakis, Y.; Georgescu, M.

2017-12-01

A suite of 10-year ensemble-based simulations was conducted to investigate the hydroclimatic impacts due to large-scale deployment of perennial bioenergy crops across the continental United States. Given the large size of the simulated dataset (about 60Tb), traditional hierarchical spatio-temporal statistical modelling cannot be implemented for the evaluation of physics parameterizations and biofuel impacts. In this work, we propose a filtering algorithm that takes into account the spatio-temporal autocorrelation structure of the data while avoiding spatial confounding. This method is used to quantify the robustness of simulated hydroclimatic impacts associated with bioenergy crops to alternative physics parameterizations and observational datasets. Results are evaluated against those obtained from three alternative Bayesian spatio-temporal specifications.

Transitions in axial morphology along the Southeast Indian Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Ying; Cochran, James R.

1996-07-01

Shipboard bathymetric and magnetic profiles across the Southeast Indian Ridge (SEIR) were analyzed in order to examine the nature of along-axis variations in axial morphology at this intermediate spreading rate ridge. Three types of axial morphology are observed along the SEIR: an axial high, a shallow (200-700 m deep) axial valley and a deep (>1000 m deep) axial valley. An axial high is found to the east of the Australian-Antarctic Discordance (AAD) (east of 128°E) and between 82°E and 104°E. A shallow rift valley is found from 104°E to 114°E and from 82°E westward past the Amerstdam/St. Paul hotspot (ASP) to about 30°S, 75°E. Deep rift valleys are found from 114°E to 128°E in the vicinity of the AAD and from the Indian Ocean Triple Junction (IOTJ) at 25°S, 70°E to about 30°S, 75°E. The transition near 30°S occurs in an area of constant zero-age depth and does not appear to result from an increase in mantle temperature. It could be the result of the rapid increase in spreading rate along that portion of the SEIR. The most likely cause of the other transitions in axial morphology is variations in mantle temperature. The transitions between the different types of axial morphology are well defined and occur over a limited distance. Transitions in axial morphology are accompanied by significant changes in ridge flank topographic roughness. The transitions from axial valleys to axial highs are also accompanied by changes in the amplitude of the seafloor magnetic anomalies. Our observations suggest that there are distinct modes rather than a continuum of axial morphology on the SEIR and that there appears to be a "threshold" mechanism for a rapid change between different states of axial morphology. The ASP has only a limited influence on the SEIR. The ridge axis is marked by an axial valley for the entire distance from the IOTJ up to and past the ASP. The ridge axis becomes shallower as the ASP is approached from the northwest but only by about 300 m over a distance of 800 km. In addition, the ridge continues to become shallower away from Amsterdam Island toward the transition to an axial high at 82°E, 350 km to the east of the ASP. The Kerguelen hotspot appears to exert a major influence on the morphology of the SEIR by feeding asthenospheric material to the ridge axis. A long, narrow finger-like gravity high extends ENE away from the Kerguelen Plateau for a distance of 500 km. Shipboard data show that the gravity high results from a large volcanic ridge. The ridge appears analogous to the Rodriguez Ridge extending from the Reunion hotspot toward the Central Indian Ridge. A series of lower and broader lineated gravity highs extend from the volcanic ridge toward the SEIR in the ridge segment between the 81°E and 85°E transforms, which is the westernmost segment with an axial high. The only region of significant off-ridge seismicity on the Antarctic flank of the SEIR is a diffuse band of epicenters extending from Kerguelen to the SEIR within the segment between the 81°E and 85°E fracture zones. The along-axis gradient in depth from 86°E to the AAD and the transitions in axial morphology at 104°E and 114°E most likely reflect along-axis variations in mantle temperature and melt production rate due to distance from the Kerguelen hotspot and the influence of the AAD.

Modeling spatial-temporal dynamics of global wetlands: Comprehensive evaluation of a new sub-grid TOPMODEL parameterization and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.; Zimmermann, N. E.; Poulter, B.

2015-12-01

Simulations of the spatial-temporal dynamics of wetlands is key to understanding the role of wetland biogeochemistry under past and future climate variability. Hydrologic inundation models, such as TOPMODEL, are based on a fundamental parameter known as the compound topographic index (CTI) and provide a computationally cost-efficient approach to simulate global wetland dynamics. However, there remains large discrepancy in the implementations of TOPMODEL in land-surface models (LSMs) and thus their performance against observations. This study describes new improvements to TOPMODEL implementation and estimates of global wetland dynamics using the LPJ-wsl DGVM, and quantifies uncertainties by comparing three digital elevation model products (HYDRO1k, GMTED, and HydroSHEDS) at different spatial resolution and accuracy on simulated inundation dynamics. We found that calibrating TOPMODEL with a benchmark dataset can help to successfully predict the seasonal and interannual variations of wetlands, as well as improve the spatial distribution of wetlands to be consistent with inventories. The HydroSHEDS DEM, using a river-basin scheme for aggregating the CTI, shows best accuracy for capturing the spatio-temporal dynamics of wetland among three DEM products. This study demonstrates the feasibility to capture spatial heterogeneity of inundation and to estimate seasonal and interannual variations in wetland by coupling a hydrological module in LSMs with appropriate benchmark datasets. It additionally highlight the importance of an adequate understanding of topographic indices for simulating global wetlands and show the opportunity to converge wetland estimations in LSMs by identifying the uncertainty associated with existing wetland products.

Model-assisted analysis of spatial and temporal variations in fruit temperature and transpiration highlighting the role of fruit development.

PubMed

Nordey, Thibault; Léchaudel, Mathieu; Saudreau, Marc; Joas, Jacques; Génard, Michel

2014-01-01

Fruit physiology is strongly affected by both fruit temperature and water losses through transpiration. Fruit temperature and its transpiration vary with environmental factors and fruit characteristics. In line with previous studies, measurements of physical and thermal fruit properties were found to significantly vary between fruit tissues and maturity stages. To study the impact of these variations on fruit temperature and transpiration, a modelling approach was used. A physical model was developed to predict the spatial and temporal variations of fruit temperature and transpiration according to the spatial and temporal variations of environmental factors and thermal and physical fruit properties. Model predictions compared well to temperature measurements on mango fruits, making it possible to accurately simulate the daily temperature variations of the sunny and shaded sides of fruits. Model simulations indicated that fruit development induced an increase in both the temperature gradient within the fruit and fruit water losses, mainly due to fruit expansion. However, the evolution of fruit characteristics has only a very slight impact on the average temperature and the transpiration per surface unit. The importance of temperature and transpiration gradients highlighted in this study made it necessary to take spatial and temporal variations of environmental factors and fruit characteristics into account to model fruit physiology.

On the origin of the super-spreading events in the SARS epidemic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Haiping; Chen, Jixiu; Hu, Jun; Xu, Lisa X.

2004-10-01

"Super-spread events" (SSEs), which have been observed in Singapore, Hong Kong in China and many cities all over the world, usually have a large influence on the early course of the epidemics. The understanding of these SSEs is critical to the containment of SARS. In this letter it is shown that the possibility of SSEs is still high enough even when the virulences are equal for all the infective individuals, based on a simple spatial-relevant Monte Carlo model (SEIR). The long latent periods play a critical role in the appearance of SSEs. The heterogeneity of the activities of infective cases can also increase the possibility.

Effect of climate-driven changes in species composition on regional emission capacities of biogenic compounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schurgers, G.; Arneth, A.; Hickler, T.

2011-11-01

Regional or global modeling studies of dynamic vegetation often represent vegetation by large functional units (plant functional types (PFTs)). For simulation of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) in these models, emission capacities, which give the emission under standardized conditions, are provided as an average value for a PFT. These emission capacities thus hide the known heterogeneity in emission characteristics that are not straightforwardly related to functional characteristics of plants. Here we study the effects of the aggregation of species-level information on emission characteristics at PFT level. The roles of temporal and spatial variability are assessed for Europe by comparing simulations that represent vegetation by dominant tree species on the one hand and by plant functional types on the other. We compare a number of time slices between the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years ago) and the present day to quantify the effects of dynamically changing vegetation on BVOC emissions. Spatial heterogeneity of emission factors is studied with present-day simulations. We show that isoprene and monoterpene emissions are of similar magnitude in Europe when the simulation represents dominant European tree species, which indicates that simulations applying typical global-scale emission capacities for PFTs tend to overestimate isoprene and underestimate monoterpene emissions. Moreover, both spatial and temporal variability affect emission capacities considerably, and by aggregating these to PFT level averages, one loses the information on local heterogeneity. Given the reactive nature of these compounds, accounting for spatial and temporal heterogeneity can be important for studies of their fate in the atmosphere.

Dynamic Shade and Irradiance Simulation of Aquatic Landscapes and Watersheds

EPA Science Inventory

Penumbra is a landscape shade and irradiance simulation model that simulates how solar energy spatially and temporally interacts within dynamic ecosystems such as riparian zones, forests, and other terrain that cast topological shadows. Direct and indirect solar energy accumulate...

A Quadtree-gridding LBM with Immersed Boundary for Two-dimension Viscous Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Jieke; Feng, Wenliang; Chen, Bin; Zhou, Wei; Cao, Shikun

2017-07-01

An un-uniform quadtree grids lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) with immersed boundary is presented in this paper. In overlapping for different level grids, temporal and spatial interpolation are necessary to ensure the continuity of physical quantity. In order to take advantage of the equation for temporal and spatial step in the same level grids, equal interval interpolation, which is simple to apply to any refined boundary grids in the LBM, is adopted in temporal and spatial aspects to obtain second-order accuracy. The velocity correction, which can guarantee more preferably no-slip boundary condition than the direct forcing method and the momentum exchange method in the traditional immersed-boundary LBM, is used for solid boundary to make the best of Cartesian grid. In present quadtree-gridding immersed-boundary LBM, large eddy simulation (LES) is adopted to simulate the flows over obstacle in higher Reynolds number (Re). The incompressible viscous flows over circular cylinder are carried out, and a great agreement is obtained.

Structure and Dynamics of the Southeast Indian Ridge, 129°E to 140°E, and Off-axis Volcanism: Preliminary Results of the STORM Cruise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briais, Anne; Barrère, Fabienne; Boulart, Cédric; Ceuleneer, Georges; Ferreira, Nicolas; Hanan, Barry; Hémond, Christophe; Macleod, Sarah; Maia, Marcia; Maillard, Agnès; Merkuryev, Sergey; Park, Sung-Hyun; Révillon, Sidonie; Ruellan, Etienne; Schohn, Alexandre; Watson, Sally; Yang, Yun-Seok

2016-04-01

We present observations of the South-East Indian Ridge (SEIR) collected during the STORM cruise (South Tasmania Ocean Ridge and Mantle) on the N/O L'Atalante early 2015. The SEIR between Australia and Antarctica displays large variations of axial morphology despite an almost constant intermediate spreading rate. The Australia-Antarctic Discordance (AAD) between 120°E and 128°E is a section of the mid-ocean ridge where the magma budget is abnormally low, and which marks the boundary between Indian and Pacific mantle domains with distinct geochemical isotopic compositions. The STORM project focuses on the area east of the discordance from 128 to 140°E, where gravity highs observed on satellite-derived maps of the flanks of the SEIR reveal numerous volcanic seamounts. A major objective of the STORM cruise was to test the hypothesis of a mantle flow from the Pacific to the Indian domains. We collected multibeam bathymetry and magnetic data between 136 and 138°E to map off-axis volcanic ridges up to 10 Ma-old crust. We mapped the SEIR axis between 129 and 140°E, and the northern part of the George V transform fault. We collected rock samples on seamounts and in the transform fault, basaltic glass samples along the ridge axis, and near-bottom samples and in-situ measurements in the water column. Our observations reveal that the off-axis seamounts form near the SEIR axis, are not associated to off-axis deformation of the ocean floor, and are often located near the traces of ridge axis discontinuities. We also observe a general shallowing of the ridge axis from the AAD to the George V TF and the presence of robust axial segments near the transform fault. Our new data allow us to describe the complex evolution of the transform fault system. They also permit to locate new hydrothermal systems along the ridge axis.

Spatiotemporal Permutation Entropy as a Measure for Complexity of Cardiac Arrhythmia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlemmer, Alexander; Berg, Sebastian; Lilienkamp, Thomas; Luther, Stefan; Parlitz, Ulrich

2018-05-01

Permutation entropy (PE) is a robust quantity for measuring the complexity of time series. In the cardiac community it is predominantly used in the context of electrocardiogram (ECG) signal analysis for diagnoses and predictions with a major application found in heart rate variability parameters. In this article we are combining spatial and temporal PE to form a spatiotemporal PE that captures both, complexity of spatial structures and temporal complexity at the same time. We demonstrate that the spatiotemporal PE (STPE) quantifies complexity using two datasets from simulated cardiac arrhythmia and compare it to phase singularity analysis and spatial PE (SPE). These datasets simulate ventricular fibrillation (VF) on a two-dimensional and a three-dimensional medium using the Fenton-Karma model. We show that SPE and STPE are robust against noise and demonstrate its usefulness for extracting complexity features at different spatial scales.

Assessing the spatial implications of interactions among strategic forest management options using a Windows-based harvest simulator.

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Luke V. Rasmussen

2002-01-01

Forest management planners must develop strategies to produce timber in ways that do not compromise ecological integrity or sustainability. These strategies often involve modifications to the spatial and temporal scheduling of harvest activities, and these strategies may interact in unexpected ways. We used a timber harvest simulator (HARVEST 6.0) to determine the...

Continuous Sub-daily Rainfall Simulation for Regional Flood Risk Assessment - Modelling of Spatio-temporal Correlation Structure of Extreme Precipitation in the Austrian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, J. L.; Nester, T.; Komma, J.; Bloeschl, G.

2017-12-01

Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations. The correct reproduction of observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional intensity-duration-frequency curves, and spatial and temporal correlations is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and frequency of the flood peaks, by reproducing antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events, and joint probability of flood waves at confluences. In this work, a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is first modeled on a station basis as a multivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space. The spatial and temporal correlation structures are imposed in the Normal space, allowing for a different temporal autocorrelation parameter for each station, and simultaneously ensuring the positive-definiteness of the correlation matrix of the mAr errors. The Normal rainfall is then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space, with parameters varying monthly according to a sinusoidal function, in order to adapt to the observed rainfall seasonality. One of the main differences with the original model is the simulation time-step, reduced from 24h to 6h. Due to a larger availability of daily rainfall data, as opposite to sub-daily (e.g. hourly), the parameters of the Gamma distributions are calibrated to reproduce simultaneously a series of daily rainfall characteristics (mean daily rainfall, standard deviations of daily rainfall, and 24h intensity-duration-frequency [IDF] curves), as well as other aggregated rainfall measures (mean annual rainfall, and monthly rainfall). The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is performed in a way that the catchment-averaged IDF curves aggregated at different temporal scales fit the measured ones. The rainfall model is used to generate 10.000 years of synthetic precipitation, fed into a rainfall-runoff model to derive the flood frequency in the Tirolean Alps in Austria. Given the number of generated events, the simulation framework is able to generate a large variety of rainfall patterns, as well as reproduce the variograms of relevant extreme rainfall events in the region of interest.

Mapping and spatial-temporal modeling of Bromus tectorum invasion in central Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Zhenyu

Cheatgrass, or Downy Brome, is an exotic winter annual weed native to the Mediterranean region. Since its introduction to the U.S., it has become a significant weed and aggressive invader of sagebrush, pinion-juniper, and other shrub communities, where it can completely out-compete native grasses and shrubs. In this research, remotely sensed data combined with field collected data are used to investigate the distribution of the cheatgrass in Central Utah, to characterize the trend of the NDVI time-series of cheatgrass, and to construct a spatially explicit population-based model to simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of the cheatgrass. This research proposes a method for mapping the canopy closure of invasive species using remotely sensed data acquired at different dates. Different invasive species have their own distinguished phenologies and the satellite images in different dates could be used to capture the phenology. The results of cheatgrass abundance prediction have a good fit with the field data for both linear regression and regression tree models, although the regression tree model has better performance than the linear regression model. To characterize the trend of NDVI time-series of cheatgrass, a novel smoothing algorithm named RMMEH is presented in this research to overcome some drawbacks of many other algorithms. By comparing the performance of RMMEH in smoothing a 16-day composite of the MODIS NDVI time-series with that of two other methods, which are the 4253EH, twice and the MVI, we have found that RMMEH not only keeps the original valid NDVI points, but also effectively removes the spurious spikes. The reconstructed NDVI time-series of different land covers are of higher quality and have smoother temporal trend. To simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of cheatgrass, a spatially explicit population-based model is built applying remotely sensed data. The comparison between the model output and the ground truth of cheatgrass closure demonstrates that the model could successfully simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of cheatgrass in a simple cheatgrass-dominant environment. The simulation of the functional response of different prescribed fire rates also shows that this model is helpful to answer management questions like, "What are the effects of prescribed fire to invasive species?" It demonstrates that a medium fire rate of 10% can successfully prevent cheatgrass invasion.

A method for generating high resolution satellite image time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Tao

2014-10-01

There is an increasing demand for satellite remote sensing data with both high spatial and temporal resolution in many applications. But it still is a challenge to simultaneously improve spatial resolution and temporal frequency due to the technical limits of current satellite observation systems. To this end, much R&D efforts have been ongoing for years and lead to some successes roughly in two aspects, one includes super resolution, pan-sharpen etc. methods which can effectively enhance the spatial resolution and generate good visual effects, but hardly preserve spectral signatures and result in inadequate analytical value, on the other hand, time interpolation is a straight forward method to increase temporal frequency, however it increase little informative contents in fact. In this paper we presented a novel method to simulate high resolution time series data by combing low resolution time series data and a very small number of high resolution data only. Our method starts with a pair of high and low resolution data set, and then a spatial registration is done by introducing LDA model to map high and low resolution pixels correspondingly. Afterwards, temporal change information is captured through a comparison of low resolution time series data, and then projected onto the high resolution data plane and assigned to each high resolution pixel according to the predefined temporal change patterns of each type of ground objects. Finally the simulated high resolution data is generated. A preliminary experiment shows that our method can simulate a high resolution data with a reasonable accuracy. The contribution of our method is to enable timely monitoring of temporal changes through analysis of time sequence of low resolution images only, and usage of costly high resolution data can be reduces as much as possible, and it presents a highly effective way to build up an economically operational monitoring solution for agriculture, forest, land use investigation, environment and etc. applications.

Sensitivity of a Bayesian atmospheric-transport inversion model to spatio-temporal sensor resolution applied to the 2006 North Korean nuclear test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundquist, K. A.; Jensen, D. D.; Lucas, D. D.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric source reconstruction allows for the probabilistic estimate of source characteristics of an atmospheric release using observations of the release. Performance of the inversion depends partially on the temporal frequency and spatial scale of the observations. The objective of this study is to quantify the sensitivity of the source reconstruction method to sparse spatial and temporal observations. To this end, simulations of atmospheric transport of noble gasses are created for the 2006 nuclear test at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. Synthetic observations are collected from the simulation, and are taken as "ground truth". Data denial techniques are used to progressively coarsen the temporal and spatial resolution of the synthetic observations, while the source reconstruction model seeks to recover the true input parameters from the synthetic observations. Reconstructed parameters considered here are source location, source timing and source quantity. Reconstruction is achieved by running an ensemble of thousands of dispersion model runs that sample from a uniform distribution of the input parameters. Machine learning is used to train a computationally-efficient surrogate model from the ensemble simulations. Monte Carlo sampling and Bayesian inversion are then used in conjunction with the surrogate model to quantify the posterior probability density functions of source input parameters. This research seeks to inform decision makers of the tradeoffs between more expensive, high frequency observations and less expensive, low frequency observations.

Characterization of dynamic changes of current source localization based on spatiotemporal fMRI constrained EEG source imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Thinh; Potter, Thomas; Grossman, Robert; Zhang, Yingchun

2018-06-01

Objective. Neuroimaging has been employed as a promising approach to advance our understanding of brain networks in both basic and clinical neuroscience. Electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) represent two neuroimaging modalities with complementary features; EEG has high temporal resolution and low spatial resolution while fMRI has high spatial resolution and low temporal resolution. Multimodal EEG inverse methods have attempted to capitalize on these properties but have been subjected to localization error. The dynamic brain transition network (DBTN) approach, a spatiotemporal fMRI constrained EEG source imaging method, has recently been developed to address these issues by solving the EEG inverse problem in a Bayesian framework, utilizing fMRI priors in a spatial and temporal variant manner. This paper presents a computer simulation study to provide a detailed characterization of the spatial and temporal accuracy of the DBTN method. Approach. Synthetic EEG data were generated in a series of computer simulations, designed to represent realistic and complex brain activity at superficial and deep sources with highly dynamical activity time-courses. The source reconstruction performance of the DBTN method was tested against the fMRI-constrained minimum norm estimates algorithm (fMRIMNE). The performances of the two inverse methods were evaluated both in terms of spatial and temporal accuracy. Main results. In comparison with the commonly used fMRIMNE method, results showed that the DBTN method produces results with increased spatial and temporal accuracy. The DBTN method also demonstrated the capability to reduce crosstalk in the reconstructed cortical time-course(s) induced by neighboring regions, mitigate depth bias and improve overall localization accuracy. Significance. The improved spatiotemporal accuracy of the reconstruction allows for an improved characterization of complex neural activity. This improvement can be extended to any subsequent brain connectivity analyses used to construct the associated dynamic brain networks.

Simulation of spatial and temporal properties of aftershocks by means of the fiber bundle model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monterrubio-Velasco, Marisol; Zúñiga, F. R.; Márquez-Ramírez, Victor Hugo; Figueroa-Soto, Angel

2017-11-01

The rupture processes of any heterogeneous material constitute a complex physical problem. Earthquake aftershocks show temporal and spatial behaviors which are consequence of the heterogeneous stress distribution and multiple rupturing following the main shock. This process is difficult to model deterministically due to the number of parameters and physical conditions, which are largely unknown. In order to shed light on the minimum requirements for the generation of aftershock clusters, in this study, we perform a simulation of the main features of such a complex process by means of a fiber bundle (FB) type model. The FB model has been widely used to analyze the fracture process in heterogeneous materials. It is a simple but powerful tool that allows modeling the main characteristics of a medium such as the brittle shallow crust of the earth. In this work, we incorporate spatial properties, such as the Coulomb stress change pattern, which help simulate observed characteristics of aftershock sequences. In particular, we introduce a parameter ( P) that controls the probability of spatial distribution of initial loads. Also, we use a "conservation" parameter ( π), which accounts for the load dissipation of the system, and demonstrate its influence on the simulated spatio-temporal patterns. Based on numerical results, we find that P has to be in the range 0.06 < P < 0.30, whilst π needs to be limited by a very narrow range ( 0.60 < π < 0.66) in order to reproduce aftershocks pattern characteristics which resemble those of observed sequences. This means that the system requires a small difference in the spatial distribution of initial stress, and a very particular fraction of load transfer in order to generate realistic aftershocks.

Modeling spatial-temporal dynamics of global wetlands: comprehensive evaluation of a new sub-grid TOPMODEL parameterization and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.; Zimmermann, N. E.; Poulter, B.

2015-11-01

Simulations of the spatial-temporal dynamics of wetlands are key to understanding the role of wetland biogeochemistry under past and future climate variability. Hydrologic inundation models, such as TOPMODEL, are based on a fundamental parameter known as the compound topographic index (CTI) and provide a computationally cost-efficient approach to simulate wetland dynamics at global scales. However, there remains large discrepancy in the implementations of TOPMODEL in land-surface models (LSMs) and thus their performance against observations. This study describes new improvements to TOPMODEL implementation and estimates of global wetland dynamics using the LPJ-wsl dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), and quantifies uncertainties by comparing three digital elevation model products (HYDRO1k, GMTED, and HydroSHEDS) at different spatial resolution and accuracy on simulated inundation dynamics. In addition, we found that calibrating TOPMODEL with a benchmark wetland dataset can help to successfully delineate the seasonal and interannual variations of wetlands, as well as improve the spatial distribution of wetlands to be consistent with inventories. The HydroSHEDS DEM, using a river-basin scheme for aggregating the CTI, shows best accuracy for capturing the spatio-temporal dynamics of wetlands among the three DEM products. The estimate of global wetland potential/maximum is ∼ 10.3 Mkm2 (106 km2), with a mean annual maximum of ∼ 5.17 Mkm2 for 1980-2010. This study demonstrates the feasibility to capture spatial heterogeneity of inundation and to estimate seasonal and interannual variations in wetland by coupling a hydrological module in LSMs with appropriate benchmark datasets. It additionally highlights the importance of an adequate investigation of topographic indices for simulating global wetlands and shows the opportunity to converge wetland estimates across LSMs by identifying the uncertainty associated with existing wetland products.

Sensitivity of chemistry-transport model simulations to the duration of chemical and transport operators: a case study with GEOS-Chem v10-01

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philip, Sajeev; Martin, Randall V.; Keller, Christoph A.

2016-05-01

Chemistry-transport models involve considerable computational expense. Fine temporal resolution offers accuracy at the expense of computation time. Assessment is needed of the sensitivity of simulation accuracy to the duration of chemical and transport operators. We conduct a series of simulations with the GEOS-Chem chemistry-transport model at different temporal and spatial resolutions to examine the sensitivity of simulated atmospheric composition to operator duration. Subsequently, we compare the species simulated with operator durations from 10 to 60 min as typically used by global chemistry-transport models, and identify the operator durations that optimize both computational expense and simulation accuracy. We find that longer continuous transport operator duration increases concentrations of emitted species such as nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide since a more homogeneous distribution reduces loss through chemical reactions and dry deposition. The increased concentrations of ozone precursors increase ozone production with longer transport operator duration. Longer chemical operator duration decreases sulfate and ammonium but increases nitrate due to feedbacks with in-cloud sulfur dioxide oxidation and aerosol thermodynamics. The simulation duration decreases by up to a factor of 5 from fine (5 min) to coarse (60 min) operator duration. We assess the change in simulation accuracy with resolution by comparing the root mean square difference in ground-level concentrations of nitrogen oxides, secondary inorganic aerosols, ozone and carbon monoxide with a finer temporal or spatial resolution taken as "truth". Relative simulation error for these species increases by more than a factor of 5 from the shortest (5 min) to longest (60 min) operator duration. Chemical operator duration twice that of the transport operator duration offers more simulation accuracy per unit computation. However, the relative simulation error from coarser spatial resolution generally exceeds that from longer operator duration; e.g., degrading from 2° × 2.5° to 4° × 5° increases error by an order of magnitude. We recommend prioritizing fine spatial resolution before considering different operator durations in offline chemistry-transport models. We encourage chemistry-transport model users to specify in publications the durations of operators due to their effects on simulation accuracy.

Soil erosion and sediment yield and their relationships with vegetation cover in upper stream of the Yellow River.

PubMed

Ouyang, Wei; Hao, Fanghua; Skidmore, Andrew K; Toxopeus, A G

2010-12-15

Soil erosion is a significant concern when considering regional environmental protection, especially in the Yellow River Basin in China. This study evaluated the temporal-spatial interaction of land cover status with soil erosion characteristics in the Longliu Catchment of China, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. SWAT is a physical hydrological model which uses the RUSLE equation as a sediment algorithm. Considering the spatial and temporal scale of the relationship between soil erosion and sediment yield, simulations were undertaken at monthly and annual temporal scales and basin and sub-basin spatial scales. The corresponding temporal and spatial Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) information was summarized from MODIS data, which can integrate regional land cover and climatic features. The SWAT simulation revealed that the annual soil erosion and sediment yield showed similar spatial distribution patterns, but the monthly variation fluctuated significantly. The monthly basin soil erosion varied from almost no erosion load to 3.92 t/ha and the maximum monthly sediment yield was 47,540 tones. The inter-annual simulation focused on the spatial difference and relationship with the corresponding vegetation NDVI value for every sub-basin. It is concluded that, for this continental monsoon climate basin, the higher NDVI vegetation zones prevented sediment transport, but at the same time they also contributed considerable soil erosion. The monthly basin soil erosion and sediment yield both correlated with NDVI, and the determination coefficients of their exponential correlation model were 0.446 and 0.426, respectively. The relationships between soil erosion and sediment yield with vegetation NDVI indicated that the vegetation status has a significant impact on sediment formation and transport. The findings can be used to develop soil erosion conservation programs for the study area. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scaling properties of Arctic sea ice deformation in high-resolution viscous-plastic sea ice models and satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutter, Nils; Losch, Martin; Menemenlis, Dimitris

2017-04-01

Sea ice models with the traditional viscous-plastic (VP) rheology and very high grid resolution can resolve leads and deformation rates that are localised along Linear Kinematic Features (LKF). In a 1-km pan-Arctic sea ice-ocean simulation, the small scale sea-ice deformations in the Central Arctic are evaluated with a scaling analysis in relation to satellite observations of the Envisat Geophysical Processor System (EGPS). A new coupled scaling analysis for data on Eulerian grids determines the spatial and the temporal scaling as well as the coupling between temporal and spatial scales. The spatial scaling of the modelled sea ice deformation implies multi-fractality. The spatial scaling is also coupled to temporal scales and varies realistically by region and season. The agreement of the spatial scaling and its coupling to temporal scales with satellite observations and models with the modern elasto-brittle rheology challenges previous results with VP models at coarse resolution where no such scaling was found. The temporal scaling analysis, however, shows that the VP model does not fully resolve the intermittency of sea ice deformation that is observed in satellite data.

Influences on influenza transmission within terminal based on hierarchical structure of personal contact network.

PubMed

Shao, Quan; Jia, Meng

2015-03-18

Since the outbreak of pandemics, influenza has caused extensive attention in the field of public health. It is actually hard to distinguish what is the most effective method to control the influenza transmission within airport terminal. The purpose of this study was to quantitatively evaluate the influences of passenger source, immunity difference and social relation structure on the influenza transmission in terminal. A method combining hierarchical structure of personal contact network with agent-based SEIR model was proposed to analyze the characteristics of influenza diffusion within terminal. Based on the spatial distance between individuals, the hierarchical structure of personal contact network was defined to construct a complex relationship of passengers in the real world. Moreover, the agent-based SEIR model was improved by considering the individual level of influenza spread characteristics. To evaluate the method, this process was fused in simulation based on the constructed personal contact network. In the terminal we investigated, personal contact network was defined by following four layers: social relation structure, procedure partition, procedure area, and the whole terminal. With the growing of layer, the degree distribution curves move right. The value of degree distribution p(k) reached a peak at a specific value, and then back down. Besides, with the increase of layer α, the clustering coefficients presented a tendency to exponential decay. Based on the influenza transmission experiments, the main infected areas were concluded when considering different factors. Moreover, partition of passenger sources was found to impact a lot in departure, while social relation structure imposed a great influence in arrival. Besides, immunity difference exerted no obvious effect on the spread of influenza in the transmission process both in departure and arrival. The proposed method is efficient to reproduce the evolution process of influenza transmission, and exhibits various roles of each factor in different processes, also better reflects the effect of passenger topological character on influenza spread. It contributes to proposing effective influenza measures by airport relevant department and improving the efficiency and ability of epidemic prevention on the public health.

Review of forest landscape models: types, methods, development and applications

Treesearch

Weimin Xi; Robert N. Coulson; Andrew G. Birt; Zong-Bo Shang; John D. Waldron; Charles W. Lafon; David M. Cairns; Maria D. Tchakerian; Kier D. Klepzig

2009-01-01

Forest landscape models simulate forest change through time using spatially referenced data across a broad spatial scale (i.e. landscape scale) generally larger than a single forest stand. Spatial interactions between forest stands are a key component of such models. These models can incorporate other spatio-temporal processes such as...

Modeling the spatial and temporal variability in climate and primary productivity across the Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico.

Treesearch

Hongqing Wanga; Charles A.S. Halla; Frederick N. Scatenab; Ned Fetcherc; Wei Wua

2003-01-01

There are few studies that have examined the spatial variability of forest productivity over an entire tropical forested landscape. In this study, we used a spatially-explicit forest productivity model, TOPOPROD, which is based on the FORESTBGC model, to simulate spatial patterns of gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), and respiration over...

Comparison of HSPF and PRMS model simulated flows using different temporal and spatial scales in the Black Hills, South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chalise, D. R.; Haj, Adel E.; Fontaine, T.A.

2018-01-01

The hydrological simulation program Fortran (HSPF) [Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran version 12.2 (Computer software). USEPA, Washington, DC] and the precipitation runoff modeling system (PRMS) [Precipitation Runoff Modeling System version 4.0 (Computer software). USGS, Reston, VA] models are semidistributed, deterministic hydrological tools for simulating the impacts of precipitation, land use, and climate on basin hydrology and streamflow. Both models have been applied independently to many watersheds across the United States. This paper reports the statistical results assessing various temporal (daily, monthly, and annual) and spatial (small versus large watershed) scale biases in HSPF and PRMS simulations using two watersheds in the Black Hills, South Dakota. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Pearson correlation coefficient (r">rr), and coefficient of determination (R2">R2R2) statistics for the daily, monthly, and annual flows were used to evaluate the models’ performance. Results from the HSPF models showed that the HSPF consistently simulated the annual flows for both large and small basins better than the monthly and daily flows, and the simulated flows for the small watershed better than flows for the large watershed. In comparison, the PRMS model results show that the PRMS simulated the monthly flows for both the large and small watersheds better than the daily and annual flows, and the range of statistical error in the PRMS models was greater than that in the HSPF models. Moreover, it can be concluded that the statistical error in the HSPF and the PRMSdaily, monthly, and annual flow estimates for watersheds in the Black Hills was influenced by both temporal and spatial scale variability.

Spatial-temporal-covariance-based modeling, analysis, and simulation of aero-optics wavefront aberrations.

PubMed

Vogel, Curtis R; Tyler, Glenn A; Wittich, Donald J

2014-07-01

We introduce a framework for modeling, analysis, and simulation of aero-optics wavefront aberrations that is based on spatial-temporal covariance matrices extracted from wavefront sensor measurements. Within this framework, we present a quasi-homogeneous structure function to analyze nonhomogeneous, mildly anisotropic spatial random processes, and we use this structure function to show that phase aberrations arising in aero-optics are, for an important range of operating parameters, locally Kolmogorov. This strongly suggests that the d5/3 power law for adaptive optics (AO) deformable mirror fitting error, where d denotes actuator separation, holds for certain important aero-optics scenarios. This framework also allows us to compute bounds on AO servo lag error and predictive control error. In addition, it provides us with the means to accurately simulate AO systems for the mitigation of aero-effects, and it may provide insight into underlying physical processes associated with turbulent flow. The techniques introduced here are demonstrated using data obtained from the Airborne Aero-Optics Laboratory.

Primitive Auditory Memory Is Correlated with Spatial Unmasking That Is Based on Direct-Reflection Integration

PubMed Central

Li, Huahui; Kong, Lingzhi; Wu, Xihong; Li, Liang

2013-01-01

In reverberant rooms with multiple-people talking, spatial separation between speech sources improves recognition of attended speech, even though both the head-shadowing and interaural-interaction unmasking cues are limited by numerous reflections. It is the perceptual integration between the direct wave and its reflections that bridges the direct-reflection temporal gaps and results in the spatial unmasking under reverberant conditions. This study further investigated (1) the temporal dynamic of the direct-reflection-integration-based spatial unmasking as a function of the reflection delay, and (2) whether this temporal dynamic is correlated with the listeners’ auditory ability to temporally retain raw acoustic signals (i.e., the fast decaying primitive auditory memory, PAM). The results showed that recognition of the target speech against the speech-masker background is a descending exponential function of the delay of the simulated target reflection. In addition, the temporal extent of PAM is frequency dependent and markedly longer than that for perceptual fusion. More importantly, the temporal dynamic of the speech-recognition function is significantly correlated with the temporal extent of the PAM of low-frequency raw signals. Thus, we propose that a chain process, which links the earlier-stage PAM with the later-stage correlation computation, perceptual integration, and attention facilitation, plays a role in spatially unmasking target speech under reverberant conditions. PMID:23658664

Discrete stochastic analogs of Erlang epidemic models.

PubMed

Getz, Wayne M; Dougherty, Eric R

2018-12-01

Erlang differential equation models of epidemic processes provide more realistic disease-class transition dynamics from susceptible (S) to exposed (E) to infectious (I) and removed (R) categories than the ubiquitous SEIR model. The latter is itself is at one end of the spectrum of Erlang SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models with [Formula: see text] concatenated E compartments and [Formula: see text] concatenated I compartments. Discrete-time models, however, are computationally much simpler to simulate and fit to epidemic outbreak data than continuous-time differential equations, and are also much more readily extended to include demographic and other types of stochasticity. Here we formulate discrete-time deterministic analogs of the Erlang models, and their stochastic extension, based on a time-to-go distributional principle. Depending on which distributions are used (e.g. discretized Erlang, Gamma, Beta, or Uniform distributions), we demonstrate that our formulation represents both a discretization of Erlang epidemic models and generalizations thereof. We consider the challenges of fitting SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models and our discrete-time analog to data (the recent outbreak of Ebola in Liberia). We demonstrate that the latter performs much better than the former; although confining fits to strict SEIR formulations reduces the numerical challenges, but sacrifices best-fit likelihood scores by at least 7%.

A Multi-Stage Method for Connecting Participatory Sensing and Noise Simulations

PubMed Central

Hu, Mingyuan; Che, Weitao; Zhang, Qiuju; Luo, Qingli; Lin, Hui

2015-01-01

Most simulation-based noise maps are important for official noise assessment but lack local noise characteristics. The main reasons for this lack of information are that official noise simulations only provide information about expected noise levels, which is limited by the use of large-scale monitoring of noise sources, and are updated infrequently. With the emergence of smart cities and ubiquitous sensing, the possible improvements enabled by sensing technologies provide the possibility to resolve this problem. This study proposed an integrated methodology to propel participatory sensing from its current random and distributed sampling origins to professional noise simulation. The aims of this study were to effectively organize the participatory noise data, to dynamically refine the granularity of the noise features on road segments (e.g., different portions of a road segment), and then to provide a reasonable spatio-temporal data foundation to support noise simulations, which can be of help to researchers in understanding how participatory sensing can play a role in smart cities. This study first discusses the potential limitations of the current participatory sensing and simulation-based official noise maps. Next, we explain how participatory noise data can contribute to a simulation-based noise map by providing (1) spatial matching of the participatory noise data to the virtual partitions at a more microscopic level of road networks; (2) multi-temporal scale noise estimations at the spatial level of virtual partitions; and (3) dynamic aggregation of virtual partitions by comparing the noise values at the relevant temporal scale to form a dynamic segmentation of each road segment to support multiple spatio-temporal noise simulations. In this case study, we demonstrate how this method could play a significant role in a simulation-based noise map. Together, these results demonstrate the potential benefits of participatory noise data as dynamic input sources for noise simulations on multiple spatio-temporal scales. PMID:25621604

A multi-stage method for connecting participatory sensing and noise simulations.

PubMed

Hu, Mingyuan; Che, Weitao; Zhang, Qiuju; Luo, Qingli; Lin, Hui

2015-01-22

Most simulation-based noise maps are important for official noise assessment but lack local noise characteristics. The main reasons for this lack of information are that official noise simulations only provide information about expected noise levels, which is limited by the use of large-scale monitoring of noise sources, and are updated infrequently. With the emergence of smart cities and ubiquitous sensing, the possible improvements enabled by sensing technologies provide the possibility to resolve this problem. This study proposed an integrated methodology to propel participatory sensing from its current random and distributed sampling origins to professional noise simulation. The aims of this study were to effectively organize the participatory noise data, to dynamically refine the granularity of the noise features on road segments (e.g., different portions of a road segment), and then to provide a reasonable spatio-temporal data foundation to support noise simulations, which can be of help to researchers in understanding how participatory sensing can play a role in smart cities. This study first discusses the potential limitations of the current participatory sensing and simulation-based official noise maps. Next, we explain how participatory noise data can contribute to a simulation-based noise map by providing (1) spatial matching of the participatory noise data to the virtual partitions at a more microscopic level of road networks; (2) multi-temporal scale noise estimations at the spatial level of virtual partitions; and (3) dynamic aggregation of virtual partitions by comparing the noise values at the relevant temporal scale to form a dynamic segmentation of each road segment to support multiple spatio-temporal noise simulations. In this case study, we demonstrate how this method could play a significant role in a simulation-based noise map. Together, these results demonstrate the potential benefits of participatory noise data as dynamic input sources for noise simulations on multiple spatio-temporal scales.

Spatio-temporal models of mental processes from fMRI.

PubMed

Janoos, Firdaus; Machiraju, Raghu; Singh, Shantanu; Morocz, Istvan Ákos

2011-07-15

Understanding the highly complex, spatially distributed and temporally organized phenomena entailed by mental processes using functional MRI is an important research problem in cognitive and clinical neuroscience. Conventional analysis methods focus on the spatial dimension of the data discarding the information about brain function contained in the temporal dimension. This paper presents a fully spatio-temporal multivariate analysis method using a state-space model (SSM) for brain function that yields not only spatial maps of activity but also its temporal structure along with spatially varying estimates of the hemodynamic response. Efficient algorithms for estimating the parameters along with quantitative validations are given. A novel low-dimensional feature-space for representing the data, based on a formal definition of functional similarity, is derived. Quantitative validation of the model and the estimation algorithms is provided with a simulation study. Using a real fMRI study for mental arithmetic, the ability of this neurophysiologically inspired model to represent the spatio-temporal information corresponding to mental processes is demonstrated. Moreover, by comparing the models across multiple subjects, natural patterns in mental processes organized according to different mental abilities are revealed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Numerical solution of a spatio-temporal gender-structured model for hantavirus infection in rodents.

PubMed

Bürger, Raimund; Chowell, Gerardo; Gavilán, Elvis; Mulet, Pep; Villada, Luis M

2018-02-01

In this article we describe the transmission dynamics of hantavirus in rodents using a spatio-temporal susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered (SEIR) compartmental model that distinguishes between male and female subpopulations [L.J.S. Allen, R.K. McCormack and C.B. Jonsson, Bull. Math. Biol. 68 (2006), 511--524]. Both subpopulations are assumed to differ in their movement with respect to local variations in the densities of their own and the opposite gender group. Three alternative models for the movement of the male individuals are examined. In some cases the movement is not only directed by the gradient of a density (as in the standard diffusive case), but also by a non-local convolution of density values as proposed, in another context, in [R.M. Colombo and E. Rossi, Commun. Math. Sci., 13 (2015), 369--400]. An efficient numerical method for the resulting convection-diffusion-reaction system of partial differential equations is proposed. This method involves techniques of weighted essentially non-oscillatory (WENO) reconstructions in combination with implicit-explicit Runge-Kutta (IMEX-RK) methods for time stepping. The numerical results demonstrate significant differences in the spatio-temporal behavior predicted by the different models, which suggest future research directions.

Epidemic Percolation Networks, Epidemic Outcomes, and Interventions

DOE PAGES

Kenah, Eben; Miller, Joel C.

2011-01-01

Epidemic percolation networks (EPNs) are directed random networks that can be used to analyze stochastic “Susceptible-Infectious-Removed” (SIR) and “Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed” (SEIR) epidemic models, unifying and generalizing previous uses of networks and branching processes to analyze mass-action and network-based S(E)IR models. This paper explains the fundamental concepts underlying the definition and use of EPNs, using them to build intuition about the final outcomes of epidemics. We then show how EPNs provide a novel and useful perspective on the design of vaccination strategies.

Epidemic Percolation Networks, Epidemic Outcomes, and Interventions

PubMed Central

Kenah, Eben; Miller, Joel C.

2011-01-01

Epidemic percolation networks (EPNs) are directed random networks that can be used to analyze stochastic “Susceptible-Infectious-Removed” (SIR) and “Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed” (SEIR) epidemic models, unifying and generalizing previous uses of networks and branching processes to analyze mass-action and network-based S(E)IR models. This paper explains the fundamental concepts underlying the definition and use of EPNs, using them to build intuition about the final outcomes of epidemics. We then show how EPNs provide a novel and useful perspective on the design of vaccination strategies. PMID:21437002

Modeling Best Management Practices (BMPs) with HSPF

EPA Science Inventory

The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) is a semi-distributed watershed model, which simulates hydrology and water quality processes at user-specified spatial and temporal scales. Although HSPF is a comprehensive and highly flexible model, a number of investigators not...

Coarse-Grained Theory of Biological Charge Transfer with Spatially and Temporally Correlated Noise.

PubMed

Liu, Chaoren; Beratan, David N; Zhang, Peng

2016-04-21

System-environment interactions are essential in determining charge-transfer (CT) rates and mechanisms. We developed a computationally accessible method, suitable to simulate CT in flexible molecules (i.e., DNA) with hundreds of sites, where the system-environment interactions are explicitly treated with numerical noise modeling of time-dependent site energies and couplings. The properties of the noise are tunable, providing us a flexible tool to investigate the detailed effects of correlated thermal fluctuations on CT mechanisms. The noise is parametrizable by molecular simulation and quantum calculation results of specific molecular systems, giving us better molecular resolution in simulating the system-environment interactions than sampling fluctuations from generic spectral density functions. The spatially correlated thermal fluctuations among different sites are naturally built-in in our method but are not readily incorporated using approximate spectral densities. Our method has quantitative accuracy in systems with small redox potential differences (

The impacts of disturbance on the spatial and temporal variations of carbon balance in forest ecosystems on Hokkaido, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, R.; Ito, A.; Saigusa, N.

2013-12-01

Carbon balance in a forest ecosystem can be quite variable if the forest ecosystem structure and function change abruptly as a result of disturbance and subsequent recovery processes. A map of forest age is useful for upscaling carbon balance from the site level to a regional scale because it provides information about when disturbance occurred and how it spread over a wide area. In this study, we used maps of forest age to help evaluate spatial and temporal variations in the carbon balance of forest ecosystems with a process-based ecosystem model. Forests less than 60 years old account for more than 70% of Japanese forests because forest stands have been quickly replaced after disturbance caused by thinning, harvesting, plantations, fires, typhoons, and insect damage. However, few studies have attempted to quantify how much disturbance affects the spatial and temporal variations of carbon balance. In this study, we focused on how disturbance and subsequent re-growth affected the spatial and temporal variations of the carbon balance of forests. We adapted the Vegetation Integrative SImulator for Trace Gases (VISIT) model in order to simulate carbon balance on Hokkaido, which is the northernmost island of Japan. The model was validated with tower flux data obtained from forests with ages between 0 and 43 years. Simulations of the carbon balance were conducted for the period 1948-2010 after a 1000-year spin-up at a spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km. We investigated two case studies of simulated carbon balance: one that took into account the spatial distribution of forest ages derived from forest inventory data, and another that ignored the impact of disturbance (i.e., no disturbance and a homogeneous distribution of ages). We first focused on the difference from 2000-2010 in the spatial distribution of net ecosystem production (NEP) between the disturbance and non-disturbance cases. In the non-disturbance case, the temporal and spatial changes in NEP were gradual and ranged from 0 to 1 t C ha-1 y-1, depending on meteorological conditions such as temperature or solar radiation. In the disturbance case, however, large NEP changes ranging from 3 to 5 t C ha-1 y-1 were distributed in patches like hotspots, because the forests in those spots ranged in age from 20 to 100 years and were younger than the forests in the non-disturbance case. In the 1970s, wood harvesting and tree planting were conducted intensively on Hokkaido. In the disturbance case during this period, there were many hotspots where NEP was negative. We next focused on the difference between the disturbance and non-disturbance cases of temporal variations of spatially averaged NEP on Hokkaido. Until 1970, the difference between the two cases of average NEP was less than 0.01 t C ha-1 y-1. After 1970, the difference became large and reached about 0.5 t C ha-1 y-1, the implication being that the regional NEP in the disturbance case increased to as much as 2-5 times the regional NEP of the non-disturbance case. Our results show the importance of considering forest age when simulating the carbon balance of forests. Carbon balance maps that take forest age into account are useful for carbon management and prediction of ecosystem feedbacks on climate change.

Turbulent flame-wall interaction: a DNS study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Jackie; Hawkes, Evatt R; Sankaran, Ramanan

2010-01-01

A turbulent flame-wall interaction (FWI) configuration is studied using three-dimensional direct numerical simulation (DNS) and detailed chemical kinetics. The simulations are used to investigate the effects of the wall turbulent boundary layer (i) on the structure of a hydrogen-air premixed flame, (ii) on its near-wall propagation characteristics and (iii) on the spatial and temporal patterns of the convective wall heat flux. Results show that the local flame thickness and propagation speed vary between the core flow and the boundary layer, resulting in a regime change from flamelet near the channel centreline to a thickened flame at the wall. This findingmore » has strong implications for the modelling of turbulent combustion using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes or large-eddy simulation techniques. Moreover, the DNS results suggest that the near-wall coherent turbulent structures play an important role on the convective wall heat transfer by pushing the hot reactive zone towards the cold solid surface. At the wall, exothermic radical recombination reactions become important, and are responsible for approximately 70% of the overall heat release rate at the wall. Spectral analysis of the convective wall heat flux provides an unambiguous picture of its spatial and temporal patterns, previously unobserved, that is directly related to the spatial and temporal characteristic scalings of the coherent near-wall turbulent structures.« less

Solar Eclipse Effect on Shelter Air Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Segal, M.; Turner, R. W.; Prusa, J.; Bitzer, R. J.; Finley, S. V.

1996-01-01

Decreases in shelter temperature during eclipse events were quantified on the basis of observations, numerical model simulations, and complementary conceptual evaluations. Observations for the annular eclipse on 10 May 1994 over the United States are presented, and these provide insights into the temporal and spatial changes in the shelter temperature. The observations indicated near-surface temperature drops of as much as 6 C. Numerical model simulations for this eclipse event, which provide a complementary evaluation of the spatial and temporal patterns of the temperature drops, predict similar decreases. Interrelationships between the temperature drop, degree of solar irradiance reduction, and timing of the peak eclipse are also evaluated for late spring, summer, and winter sun conditions. These simulations suggest that for total eclipses the drops in shelter temperature in midlatitudes can be as high as 7 C for a spring morning eclipse.

Sensitivity of modeled estuarine circulation to spatial and temporal resolution of input meteorological forcing of a cold frontal passage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, Robert J.; Taeb, Peyman; Lazarus, Steven; Splitt, Michael; Holman, Bryan P.; Colvin, Jeffrey

2016-12-01

In this study, a four member ensemble of meteorological forcing is generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in order to simulate a frontal passage event that impacted the Indian River Lagoon (IRL) during March 2015. The WRF model is run to provide high and low, spatial (0.005° and 0.1°) and temporal (30 min and 6 h) input wind and pressure fields. The four member ensemble is used to force the Advanced Circulation model (ADCIRC) coupled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) and compute the hydrodynamic and wave response. Results indicate that increasing the spatial resolution of the meteorological forcing has a greater impact on the results than increasing the temporal resolution in coastal systems like the IRL where the length scales are smaller than the resolution of the operational meteorological model being used to generate the forecast. Changes in predicted water elevations are due in part to the upwind and downwind behavior of the input wind forcing. The significant wave height is more sensitive to the meteorological forcing, exhibited by greater ensemble spread throughout the simulation. It is important that the land mask, seen by the meteorological model, is representative of the geography of the coastal estuary as resolved by the hydrodynamic model. As long as the temporal resolution of the wind field captures the bulk characteristics of the frontal passage, computational resources should be focused so as to ensure that the meteorological model resolves the spatial complexities, such as the land-water interface, that drive the land use responsible for dynamic downscaling of the winds.

Simulation study on the spatial and temporal characteristics of focused microwave beam discharge in nitrogen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Wei; Zhou, Qianhong; Dong, Zhiwei

2018-01-01

This paper reports a simulation study on a focused microwave (frequency 9.4 GHz, pulse width 2.5 μs, and peak electric field 1.2 kV/cm) discharge in 200 Pa nitrogen. A one-dimensional (1D) fluid model is based on the wave equation for the microwave field propagating through the gas breakdown plasma, the continuity equations for electron, ion and neutral particle densities, and the energy balance equations for mean electron temperature, and nitrogen vibrational and translational temperatures. These equations are numerically solved in a self-consistent manner with a simplified plasma chemistry set, in which the reaction rates involving electrons are calculated from the electron energy distribution function (EEDF) using a two-term expansion method. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the focused microwave breakdown in nitrogen are demonstrated, which include the amplitude of the microwave electric field, and the densities and temperatures of the plasma components. The temporal evolution of the plasma electron density agrees reasonably well with that measured with a microwave interferometer. The spatial-temporal distributions of metastable states are discussed on the plasma chemistry and the character of mean electron temperature. The spatially integrated N2(C3) density shows similar trends with the measured temporal intensity of optical emission spectroscopy, except for a time delay of 100-300 ns. The quantitative discrepancies are explained in light of limitations of the 1D model with a two-term expansion of EEDF. The theoretical model is found to describe the gas breakdown plasma generated by focused microwave beams at least qualitatively.

Structure and Dynamics of the Southeast Indian Ridge and Off-axis Volcanism, 129°E to 140°E: Preliminary Results of the STORM Cruise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maia, M.; Briais, A.; Barrere, F.; Boulart, C.; Ceuleneer, G.; Ferreira, N.; Hanan, B. B.; Hemond, C.; MacLeod, S.; Maillard, A. L.; Merkuryev, S. A.; Park, S. H.; Revillon, S.; Ruellan, E.; Schohn, A.; Watson, S. J.; Yang, Y. S.

2015-12-01

We present observations of the South-East Indian Ridge (SEIR) collected during the STORM cruise (South Tasmania Ocean Ridge and Mantle) on the N/O L'Atalante early 2015. The SEIR between Australia and Antarctica displays large variations of axial morphology despite an almost constant intermediate spreading rate. The Australia-Antarctic Discordance (AAD) between 120°E and 128°E is a section of the mid-ocean ridge where the magma budget is abnormally low, and which marks the boundary between Indian and Pacific mantle domains with distinct geochemical isotopic compositions. The STORM project focuses on the area east of the discordance from 128 to 140°E, where gravity highs observed on satellite-derived maps of the flanks of the SEIR reveal numerous volcanic seamounts. A major objective of the STORM cruise was to test the hypothesis of a mantle flow from the Pacific to the Indian domains. We collected multibeam bathymetry and magnetic data between 136 and 138°E to map off-axis volcanic ridges up to 10 Ma-old crust. We mapped the SEIR axis between 129 and 140°E, and the northern part of the George V transform fault. We collected rock samples on seamounts and in the transform fault, basaltic glass samples along the ridge axis, and near-bottom samples and in-situ measurements in the water column. Our observations reveal that the off-axis seamounts form near the SEIR axis, and are not associated to off-axis deformation of the ocean floor. They show a general shallowing of the ridge axis from the AAD to the George V TF and the presence of robust axial segments near the transform fault. They allow us to describe the complex evolution of the transform fault system. They also permit to locate new hydrothermal systems along the ridge axis. STORM cruise scientific party: F. Barrere, C. Boulart, G. Ceuleneer, N. Ferreira, B. Hanan, C. Hémond, S. Macleod, M. Maia, A. Maillard, S. Merkuryev, S.H. Park, S. Révillon, E. Ruellan, A. Schohn, S. Watson, and Y.S. Yang.

Gulf Coast megaregion evacuation traffic simulation modeling and analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-12-01

This paper describes a project to develop a micro-level traffic simulation for a megaregion. To : accomplish this, a mass evacuation event was modeled using a traffic demand generation process that : created a spatial and temporal distribution of dep...

Spatial-temporal event detection in climate parameter imagery.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKenna, Sean Andrew; Gutierrez, Karen A.

Previously developed techniques that comprise statistical parametric mapping, with applications focused on human brain imaging, are examined and tested here for new applications in anomaly detection within remotely-sensed imagery. Two approaches to analysis are developed: online, regression-based anomaly detection and conditional differences. These approaches are applied to two example spatial-temporal data sets: data simulated with a Gaussian field deformation approach and weekly NDVI images derived from global satellite coverage. Results indicate that anomalies can be identified in spatial temporal data with the regression-based approach. Additionally, la Nina and el Nino climatic conditions are used as different stimuli applied to themore » earth and this comparison shows that el Nino conditions lead to significant decreases in NDVI in both the Amazon Basin and in Southern India.« less

Spatial and Temporal Monitoring Resolutions for CO2 Leakage Detection at Carbon Storage Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y. M.; Dilmore, R. M.; Daley, T. M.; Carroll, S.; Mansoor, K.; Gasperikova, E.; Harbert, W.; Wang, Z.; Bromhal, G. S.; Small, M.

2016-12-01

Different leakage monitoring techniques offer different strengths in detection sensitivity, coverage, feedback time, cost, and technology availability, such that they may complement each other when applied together. This research focuses on quantifying the spatial coverage and temporal resolution of detection response for several geophysical remote monitoring and direct groundwater monitoring techniques for an optimal monitoring plan for CO2 leakage detection. Various monitoring techniques with different monitoring depths are selected: 3D time-lapse seismic survey, wellbore pressure, groundwater chemistry and soil gas. The spatial resolution in terms of leakage detectability is quantified through the effective detection distance between two adjacent monitors, given the magnitude of leakage and specified detection probability. The effective detection distances are obtained either from leakage simulations with various monitoring densities or from information garnered from field test data. These spatial leakage detection resolutions are affected by physically feasible monitoring design and detection limits. Similarly, the temporal resolution, in terms of leakage detectability, is quantified through the effective time to positive detection of a given size of leak and a specified detection probability, again obtained either from representative leakage simulations with various monitoring densities or from field test data. The effective time to positive detection is also affected by operational feedback time (associated with sampling, sample analysis and data interpretation), with values obtained mainly through expert interviews and literature review. In additional to the spatial and temporal resolutions of these monitoring techniques, the impact of CO2 plume migration speed and leakage detection sensitivity of each monitoring technique are also discussed with consideration of how much monitoring is necessary for effective leakage detection and how these monitoring techniques can be better combined in a time-space framework. The results of the spatial and temporal leakage detection resolutions for several geophysical monitoring techniques and groundwater monitoring are summarized to inform future monitoring designs at carbon storage sites.

Spatial-Temporal Data Collection with Compressive Sensing in Mobile Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Li, Jiayin; Guo, Wenzhong; Chen, Zhonghui; Xiong, Neal

2017-01-01

Compressive sensing (CS) provides an energy-efficient paradigm for data gathering in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). However, the existing work on spatial-temporal data gathering using compressive sensing only considers either multi-hop relaying based or multiple random walks based approaches. In this paper, we exploit the mobility pattern for spatial-temporal data collection and propose a novel mobile data gathering scheme by employing the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with delayed acceptance, an improved random walk algorithm for a mobile collector to collect data from a sensing field. The proposed scheme exploits Kronecker compressive sensing (KCS) for spatial-temporal correlation of sensory data by allowing the mobile collector to gather temporal compressive measurements from a small subset of randomly selected nodes along a random routing path. More importantly, from the theoretical perspective we prove that the equivalent sensing matrix constructed from the proposed scheme for spatial-temporal compressible signal can satisfy the property of KCS models. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed scheme can not only significantly reduce communication cost but also improve recovery accuracy for mobile data gathering compared to the other existing schemes. In particular, we also show that the proposed scheme is robust in unreliable wireless environment under various packet losses. All this indicates that the proposed scheme can be an efficient alternative for data gathering application in WSNs. PMID:29117152

Spatial-Temporal Data Collection with Compressive Sensing in Mobile Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Zheng, Haifeng; Li, Jiayin; Feng, Xinxin; Guo, Wenzhong; Chen, Zhonghui; Xiong, Neal

2017-11-08

Compressive sensing (CS) provides an energy-efficient paradigm for data gathering in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). However, the existing work on spatial-temporal data gathering using compressive sensing only considers either multi-hop relaying based or multiple random walks based approaches. In this paper, we exploit the mobility pattern for spatial-temporal data collection and propose a novel mobile data gathering scheme by employing the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with delayed acceptance, an improved random walk algorithm for a mobile collector to collect data from a sensing field. The proposed scheme exploits Kronecker compressive sensing (KCS) for spatial-temporal correlation of sensory data by allowing the mobile collector to gather temporal compressive measurements from a small subset of randomly selected nodes along a random routing path. More importantly, from the theoretical perspective we prove that the equivalent sensing matrix constructed from the proposed scheme for spatial-temporal compressible signal can satisfy the property of KCS models. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed scheme can not only significantly reduce communication cost but also improve recovery accuracy for mobile data gathering compared to the other existing schemes. In particular, we also show that the proposed scheme is robust in unreliable wireless environment under various packet losses. All this indicates that the proposed scheme can be an efficient alternative for data gathering application in WSNs .

Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

Complex Dynamics of Wetland Ecosystem with Nonlinear Harvesting: Application to Chilika Lake in Odisha, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Tiwari, S. K.; Roy, Parimita

2015-06-01

In this paper, an attempt has been made to study the spatial and temporal dynamical interactions among the species of wetland ecosystem through a mathematical model. The model represents the population dynamics of phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish species found in Chilika lake, Odisha, India. Nonlinear stability analysis of both the temporal and spatial models has been carried out. Maximum sustainable yield and optimal harvesting policy have been studied for a nonspatial model system. Numerical simulation has been performed to figure out the parameters responsible for the complex dynamics of the wetland system. Significant outcomes of our numerical findings and their interpretations from an ecological point of view are provided in this paper. Numerical simulation of spatial model exhibits some interesting and beautiful patterns. We have also pointed out the parameters that are responsible for the good health of wetland ecosystem.

Understanding viral video dynamics through an epidemic modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sachak-Patwa, Rahil; Fadai, Nabil T.; Van Gorder, Robert A.

2018-07-01

Motivated by the hypothesis that the spread of viral videos is analogous to the spread of a disease epidemic, we formulate a novel susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-susceptible (SEIRS) delay differential equation epidemic model to describe the popularity evolution of viral videos. Our models incorporate time-delay, in order to accurately describe the virtual contact process between individuals and the temporary immunity of individuals to videos after they have grown tired of watching them. We validate our models by fitting model parameters to viewing data from YouTube music videos, in order to demonstrate that the model solutions accurately reproduce real behaviour seen in this data. We use an SEIR model to describe the initial growth and decline of daily views, and an SEIRS model to describe the long term behaviour of the popularity of music videos. We also analyse the decay rates in the daily views of videos, determining whether they follow a power law or exponential distribution. Although we focus on viral videos, the modelling approach may be used to understand dynamics emergent from other areas of science which aim to describe consumer behaviour.

Impact of time delay on the dynamics of SEIR epidemic model using cellular automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Natasha; Gupta, Arvind Kumar

2017-04-01

The delay of an infectious disease is significant when aiming to predict its strength and spreading patterns. In this paper the SEIR ​(susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) epidemic spread with time delay is analyzed through a two-dimensional cellular automata model. The time delay corresponding to the infectious span, predominantly, includes death during the latency period in due course of infection. The advancement of whole system is described by SEIR transition function complemented with crucial factors like inhomogeneous population distribution, birth and disease independent mortality. Moreover, to reflect more realistic population dynamics some stochastic parameters like population movement and connections at local level are also considered. The existence and stability of disease free equilibrium is investigated. Two prime behavioral patterns of disease dynamics is found depending on delay. The critical value of delay, beyond which there are notable variations in spread patterns, is computed. The influence of important parameters affecting the disease dynamics on basic reproduction number is also examined. The results obtained show that delay plays an affirmative role to control disease progression in an infected host.

Use of circulation types classifications to evaluate AR4 climate models over the Euro-Atlantic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastor, M. A.; Casado, M. J.

2012-10-01

This paper presents an evaluation of the multi-model simulations for the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in terms of their ability to simulate the ERA40 circulation types over the Euro-Atlantic region in winter season. Two classification schemes, k-means and SANDRA, have been considered to test the sensitivity of the evaluation results to the classification procedure. The assessment allows establishing different rankings attending spatial and temporal features of the circulation types. Regarding temporal characteristics, in general, all AR4 models tend to underestimate the frequency of occurrence. The best model simulating spatial characteristics is the UKMO-HadGEM1 whereas CCSM3, UKMO-HadGEM1 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the best simulating the temporal features, for both classification schemes. This result agrees with the AR4 models ranking obtained when having analysed the ability of the same AR4 models to simulate Euro-Atlantic variability modes. This study has proved the utility of applying such a synoptic climatology approach as a diagnostic tool for models' assessment. The ability of the models to properly reproduce the position of ridges and troughs and the frequency of synoptic patterns, will therefore improve our confidence in the response of models to future climate changes.

Spatial-Temporal Variations of Chlorophyll-a in the Adjacent Sea Area of the Yangtze River Estuary Influenced by Yangtze River Discharge.

PubMed

Wang, Ying; Jiang, Hong; Jin, Jiaxin; Zhang, Xiuying; Lu, Xuehe; Wang, Yueqi

2015-05-20

Carrying abundant nutrition, terrigenous freshwater has a great impact on the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of phytoplankton in coastal waters. The present study analyzed the spatial-temporal variations of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration under the influence of discharge from the Yangtze River, based on remotely sensed Chl-a concentrations. The study area was initially zoned to quantitatively investigate the spatial variation patterns of Chl-a. Then, the temporal variation of Chl-a in each zone was simulated by a sinusoidal curve model. The results showed that in the inshore waters, the terrigenous discharge was the predominant driving force determining the pattern of Chl-a, which brings the risk of red tide disasters; while in the open sea areas, Chl-a was mainly affected by meteorological factors. Furthermore, a diversity of spatial and temporal variations of Chl-a existed based on the degree of influences from discharge. The diluted water extended from inshore to the east of Jeju Island. This process affected the Chl-a concentration flowing through the area, and had a potential impact on the marine environment. The Chl-a from September to November showed an obvious response to the discharge from July to September with a lag of 1 to 2 months.

Spatial-Temporal Variations of Chlorophyll-a in the Adjacent Sea Area of the Yangtze River Estuary Influenced by Yangtze River Discharge

PubMed Central

Wang, Ying; Jiang, Hong; Jin, Jiaxin; Zhang, Xiuying; Lu, Xuehe; Wang, Yueqi

2015-01-01

Carrying abundant nutrition, terrigenous freshwater has a great impact on the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of phytoplankton in coastal waters. The present study analyzed the spatial-temporal variations of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration under the influence of discharge from the Yangtze River, based on remotely sensed Chl-a concentrations. The study area was initially zoned to quantitatively investigate the spatial variation patterns of Chl-a. Then, the temporal variation of Chl-a in each zone was simulated by a sinusoidal curve model. The results showed that in the inshore waters, the terrigenous discharge was the predominant driving force determining the pattern of Chl-a, which brings the risk of red tide disasters; while in the open sea areas, Chl-a was mainly affected by meteorological factors. Furthermore, a diversity of spatial and temporal variations of Chl-a existed based on the degree of influences from discharge. The diluted water extended from inshore to the east of Jeju Island. This process affected the Chl-a concentration flowing through the area, and had a potential impact on the marine environment. The Chl-a from September to November showed an obvious response to the discharge from July to September with a lag of 1 to 2 months. PMID:26006121

Spatial Sampling of Weather Data for Regional Crop Yield Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Van Bussel, Lenny G. J.; Ewert, Frank; Zhao, Gang; Hoffmann, Holger; Enders, Andreas; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold; Baigorria, Guillermo A.; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian;

Analysis of temporal shear stress gradients during the onset phase of flow over a backward-facing step.

PubMed

Haidekker, M A; White, C R; Frangos, J A

2001-10-01

Endothelial cells in blood vessels are exposed to bloodflow and thus fluid shear stress. In arterial bifurcations and stenoses, disturbed flow causes zones of recirculation and stagnation, which are associated with both spatial and temporal gradients of shear stress. Such gradients have been linked to the generation of atherosclerotic plaques. For in-vitro studies of endothelial cell responses, the sudden-expansion flow chamber has been widely used and described. A two-dimensional numerical simulation of the onset phase of flow through the chamber was performed. The wall shear stress action on the bottom plate was computed as a function of time and distance from the sudden expansion. The results showed that depending on the time for the flow to be established, significant temporal gradients occurred close to the second stagnation point of flow. Slowly ramping the flow over 15 s instead of 200 ms reduces the temporal gradients by a factor of 300, while spatial gradients are reduced by 23 percent. Thus, the effects of spatial and temporal gradients can be observed separately. In experiments on endothelial cells, disturbed flow stimulated cell proliferation only when flow onset was sudden. The spatial patterns of proliferation rate match the exposure to temporal gradients. This study provides information on the dynamics of spatial and temporal gradients to which the cells are exposed in a sudden-expansion flow chamber and relates them to changes in the onset phase of flow.

Functional resilience of microbial ecosystems in soil: How important is a spatial analysis?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

König, Sara; Banitz, Thomas; Centler, Florian; Frank, Karin; Thullner, Martin

2015-04-01

Microbial life in soil is exposed to fluctuating environmental conditions influencing the performance of microbially mediated ecosystem services such as biodegradation of contaminants. However, as this environment is typically very heterogeneous, spatial aspects can be expected to play a major role for the ability to recover from a stress event. To determine key processes for functional resilience, simple scenarios with varying stress intensities were simulated within a microbial simulation model and the biodegradation rate in the recovery phase monitored. Parameters including microbial growth and dispersal rates were varied over a typical range to consider microorganisms with varying properties. Besides an aggregated temporal monitoring, the explicit observation of the spatio-temporal dynamics proved essential to understand the recovery process. For a mechanistic understanding of the model system, scenarios were also simulated with selected processes being switched-off. Results of the mechanistic and the spatial view show that the key factors for functional recovery with respect to biodegradation after a simple stress event depend on the location of the observed habitats. The limiting factors near unstressed areas are spatial processes - the mobility of the bacteria as well as substrate diffusion - the longer the distance to the unstressed region the more important becomes the process growth. Furthermore, recovery depends on the stress intensity - after a low stress event the spatial configuration has no influence on the key factors for functional resilience. To confirm these results, we repeated the stress scenarios but this time including an additional dispersal network representing a fungal network in soil. The system benefits from an increased spatial performance due to the higher mobility of the degrading microorganisms. However, this effect appears only in scenarios where the spatial distribution of the stressed area plays a role. With these simulations we show that spatial aspects play a main role for recovering after a severe stress event in a highly heterogeneous environment such as soil, and thus the relevance of the exact distribution of the stressed area. In consequence a spatial-mechanistic view is necessary for examining the functional resilience as the aggregated temporal view alone could not have led to these conclusions. Further research should explore the importance of a spatial view for quantifying the recovery of the ecosystem service also after more complex stress regimes.

Impacts of Spatial Distribution of Impervious Areas on Runoff Response of Hillslope Catchments: Simulation Study

EPA Science Inventory

This study analyzes variations in the model-projected changes in catchment runoff response after urbanization that stem from variations in the spatial distribution of impervious areas, interevent differences in temporal rainfall structure, and antecedent soil moisture (ASM). In t...

Spatio-temporal alignment of multiple sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Tinghua; Ni, Guoqiang; Fan, Guihua; Sun, Huayan; Yang, Biao

2018-01-01

Aiming to achieve the spatio-temporal alignment of multi sensor on the same platform for space target observation, a joint spatio-temporal alignment method is proposed. To calibrate the parameters and measure the attitude of cameras, an astronomical calibration method is proposed based on star chart simulation and collinear invariant features of quadrilateral diagonal between the observed star chart. In order to satisfy a temporal correspondence and spatial alignment similarity simultaneously, the method based on the astronomical calibration and attitude measurement in this paper formulates the video alignment to fold the spatial and temporal alignment into a joint alignment framework. The advantage of this method is reinforced by exploiting the similarities and prior knowledge of velocity vector field between adjacent frames, which is calculated by the SIFT Flow algorithm. The proposed method provides the highest spatio-temporal alignment accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art methods on sequences recorded from multi sensor at different times.

Three-Dimensional Numerical Simulation of Water Quality and Sediment-Associated Processes with Application to a Mississippi Delta Lake

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A three-dimensional water quality model was developed for simulating temporal and spatial variations of phytoplankton, nutrients, and dissolved oxygen in freshwater bodies. Effects of suspended and bed sediment on the water quality processes were simulated. A formula was generated from field measure...

Kalman filter techniques for accelerated Cartesian dynamic cardiac imaging.

PubMed

Feng, Xue; Salerno, Michael; Kramer, Christopher M; Meyer, Craig H

2013-05-01

In dynamic MRI, spatial and temporal parallel imaging can be exploited to reduce scan time. Real-time reconstruction enables immediate visualization during the scan. Commonly used view-sharing techniques suffer from limited temporal resolution, and many of the more advanced reconstruction methods are either retrospective, time-consuming, or both. A Kalman filter model capable of real-time reconstruction can be used to increase the spatial and temporal resolution in dynamic MRI reconstruction. The original study describing the use of the Kalman filter in dynamic MRI was limited to non-Cartesian trajectories because of a limitation intrinsic to the dynamic model used in that study. Here the limitation is overcome, and the model is applied to the more commonly used Cartesian trajectory with fast reconstruction. Furthermore, a combination of the Kalman filter model with Cartesian parallel imaging is presented to further increase the spatial and temporal resolution and signal-to-noise ratio. Simulations and experiments were conducted to demonstrate that the Kalman filter model can increase the temporal resolution of the image series compared with view-sharing techniques and decrease the spatial aliasing compared with TGRAPPA. The method requires relatively little computation, and thus is suitable for real-time reconstruction. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Kalman Filter Techniques for Accelerated Cartesian Dynamic Cardiac Imaging

PubMed Central

Feng, Xue; Salerno, Michael; Kramer, Christopher M.; Meyer, Craig H.

2012-01-01

In dynamic MRI, spatial and temporal parallel imaging can be exploited to reduce scan time. Real-time reconstruction enables immediate visualization during the scan. Commonly used view-sharing techniques suffer from limited temporal resolution, and many of the more advanced reconstruction methods are either retrospective, time-consuming, or both. A Kalman filter model capable of real-time reconstruction can be used to increase the spatial and temporal resolution in dynamic MRI reconstruction. The original study describing the use of the Kalman filter in dynamic MRI was limited to non-Cartesian trajectories, because of a limitation intrinsic to the dynamic model used in that study. Here the limitation is overcome and the model is applied to the more commonly used Cartesian trajectory with fast reconstruction. Furthermore, a combination of the Kalman filter model with Cartesian parallel imaging is presented to further increase the spatial and temporal resolution and SNR. Simulations and experiments were conducted to demonstrate that the Kalman filter model can increase the temporal resolution of the image series compared with view sharing techniques and decrease the spatial aliasing compared with TGRAPPA. The method requires relatively little computation, and thus is suitable for real-time reconstruction. PMID:22926804

An advanced stochastic weather generator for simulating 2-D high-resolution climate variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

2017-07-01

A new stochastic weather generator, Advanced WEather GENerator for a two-dimensional grid (AWE-GEN-2d) is presented. The model combines physical and stochastic approaches to simulate key meteorological variables at high spatial and temporal resolution: 2 km × 2 km and 5 min for precipitation and cloud cover and 100 m × 100 m and 1 h for near-surface air temperature, solar radiation, vapor pressure, atmospheric pressure, and near-surface wind. The model requires spatially distributed data for the calibration process, which can nowadays be obtained by remote sensing devices (weather radar and satellites), reanalysis data sets and ground stations. AWE-GEN-2d is parsimonious in terms of computational demand and therefore is particularly suitable for studies where exploring internal climatic variability at multiple spatial and temporal scales is fundamental. Applications of the model include models of environmental systems, such as hydrological and geomorphological models, where high-resolution spatial and temporal meteorological forcing is crucial. The weather generator was calibrated and validated for the Engelberg region, an area with complex topography in the Swiss Alps. Model test shows that the climate variables are generated by AWE-GEN-2d with a level of accuracy that is sufficient for many practical applications.

Groundwater-fed irrigation impacts spatially distributed temporal scaling behavior of the natural system: a spatio-temporal framework for understanding water management impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Condon, Laura E.; Maxwell, Reed M.

2014-03-01

Regional scale water management analysis increasingly relies on integrated modeling tools. Much recent work has focused on groundwater-surface water interactions and feedbacks. However, to our knowledge, no study has explicitly considered impacts of management operations on the temporal dynamics of the natural system. Here, we simulate twenty years of hourly moisture dependent, groundwater-fed irrigation using a three-dimensional, fully integrated, hydrologic model (ParFlow-CLM). Results highlight interconnections between irrigation demand, groundwater oscillation frequency and latent heat flux variability not previously demonstrated. Additionally, the three-dimensional model used allows for novel consideration of spatial patterns in temporal dynamics. Latent heat flux and water table depth both display spatial organization in temporal scaling, an important finding given the spatial homogeneity and weak scaling observed in atmospheric forcings. Pumping and irrigation amplify high frequency (sub-annual) variability while attenuating low frequency (inter-annual) variability. Irrigation also intensifies scaling within irrigated areas, essentially increasing temporal memory in both the surface and the subsurface. These findings demonstrate management impacts that extend beyond traditional water balance considerations to the fundamental behavior of the system itself. This is an important step to better understanding groundwater’s role as a buffer for natural variability and the impact that water management has on this capacity.

Complex dynamics of an SEIR epidemic model with saturated incidence rate and treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Muhammad Altaf; Khan, Yasir; Islam, Saeed

2018-03-01

In this paper, we describe the dynamics of an SEIR epidemic model with saturated incidence, treatment function, and optimal control. Rigorous mathematical results have been established for the model. The stability analysis of the model is investigated and found that the model is locally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1. The model is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable at endemic equilibrium when R0 > 1. The proposed model may possess a backward bifurcation. The optimal control problem is designed and obtained their necessary results. Numerical results have been presented for justification of theoretical results.

Hierarchical Spatio-temporal Visual Analysis of Cluster Evolution in Electrocorticography Data

DOE PAGES

Murugesan, Sugeerth; Bouchard, Kristofer; Chang, Edward; ...

2016-10-02

Here, we present ECoG ClusterFlow, a novel interactive visual analysis tool for the exploration of high-resolution Electrocorticography (ECoG) data. Our system detects and visualizes dynamic high-level structures, such as communities, using the time-varying spatial connectivity network derived from the high-resolution ECoG data. ECoG ClusterFlow provides a multi-scale visualization of the spatio-temporal patterns underlying the time-varying communities using two views: 1) an overview summarizing the evolution of clusters over time and 2) a hierarchical glyph-based technique that uses data aggregation and small multiples techniques to visualize the propagation of clusters in their spatial domain. ECoG ClusterFlow makes it possible 1) tomore » compare the spatio-temporal evolution patterns across various time intervals, 2) to compare the temporal information at varying levels of granularity, and 3) to investigate the evolution of spatial patterns without occluding the spatial context information. Lastly, we present case studies done in collaboration with neuroscientists on our team for both simulated and real epileptic seizure data aimed at evaluating the effectiveness of our approach.« less

Studies in the use of cloud type statistics in mission simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fowler, M. G.; Willand, J. H.; Chang, D. T.; Cogan, J. L.

1974-01-01

A study to further improve NASA's global cloud statistics for mission simulation is reported. Regional homogeneity in cloud types was examined; most of the original region boundaries defined for cloud cover amount in previous studies were supported by the statistics on cloud types and the number of cloud layers. Conditionality in cloud statistics was also examined with special emphasis on temporal and spatial dependencies, and cloud type interdependence. Temporal conditionality was found up to 12 hours, and spatial conditionality up to 200 miles; the diurnal cycle in convective cloudiness was clearly evident. As expected, the joint occurrence of different cloud types reflected the dynamic processes which form the clouds. Other phases of the study improved the cloud type statistics for several region and proposed a mission simulation scheme combining the 4-dimensional atmospheric model, sponsored by MSFC, with the global cloud model.

In pursuit of an accurate spatial and temporal model of biomolecules at the atomistic level: a perspective on computer simulation.

PubMed

Gray, Alan; Harlen, Oliver G; Harris, Sarah A; Khalid, Syma; Leung, Yuk Ming; Lonsdale, Richard; Mulholland, Adrian J; Pearson, Arwen R; Read, Daniel J; Richardson, Robin A

2015-01-01

Despite huge advances in the computational techniques available for simulating biomolecules at the quantum-mechanical, atomistic and coarse-grained levels, there is still a widespread perception amongst the experimental community that these calculations are highly specialist and are not generally applicable by researchers outside the theoretical community. In this article, the successes and limitations of biomolecular simulation and the further developments that are likely in the near future are discussed. A brief overview is also provided of the experimental biophysical methods that are commonly used to probe biomolecular structure and dynamics, and the accuracy of the information that can be obtained from each is compared with that from modelling. It is concluded that progress towards an accurate spatial and temporal model of biomacromolecules requires a combination of all of these biophysical techniques, both experimental and computational.

Spatial and temporal variability in the R-5 infiltration data set: Déjà vu and rainfall-runoff simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loague, Keith; Kyriakidis, Phaedon C.

1997-12-01

This paper is a continuation of the event-based rainfall-runoff model evaluation study reported by Loague and Freeze [1985[. Here we reevaluate the performance of a quasi-physically based rainfall-runoff model for three large events from the well-known R-5 catchment. Five different statistical criteria are used to quantitatively judge model performance. Temporal variability in the large R-5 infiltration data set [Loague and Gander, 1990] is filtered by working in terms of permeability. The transformed data set is reanalyzed via geostatistical methods to model the spatial distribution of permeability across the R-5 catchment. We present new estimates of the spatial distribution of infiltration that are in turn used in our rainfall-runoff simulations with the Horton rainfall-runoff model. The new rainfall-runoff simulations, complicated by reinfiltration impacts at the smaller scales of characterization, indicate that the near-surface hydrologic response of the R-5 catchment is most probably dominated by a combination of the Horton and Dunne overland flow mechanisms.

Node Survival in Networks under Correlated Attacks

PubMed Central

Hao, Yan; Armbruster, Dieter; Hütt, Marc-Thorsten

2015-01-01

We study the interplay between correlations, dynamics, and networks for repeated attacks on a socio-economic network. As a model system we consider an insurance scheme against disasters that randomly hit nodes, where a node in need receives support from its network neighbors. The model is motivated by gift giving among the Maasai called Osotua. Survival of nodes under different disaster scenarios (uncorrelated, spatially, temporally and spatio-temporally correlated) and for different network architectures are studied with agent-based numerical simulations. We find that the survival rate of a node depends dramatically on the type of correlation of the disasters: Spatially and spatio-temporally correlated disasters increase the survival rate; purely temporally correlated disasters decrease it. The type of correlation also leads to strong inequality among the surviving nodes. We introduce the concept of disaster masking to explain some of the results of our simulations. We also analyze the subsets of the networks that were activated to provide support after fifty years of random disasters. They show qualitative differences for the different disaster scenarios measured by path length, degree, clustering coefficient, and number of cycles. PMID:25932635

Oceanic magmatic evolution during ocean opening under influence of mantle plume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sushchevskaya, Nadezhda; Melanholina, Elena; Belyatsky, Boris; Krymsky, Robert; Migdisova, Natalya

2015-04-01

Petrology, geochemistry and geophysics as well as numerical simulation of spreading processes in plume impact environments on examples of Atlantic Ocean Iceland and the Central Atlantic plumes and Kerguelen plume in the Indian Ocean reveal: - under interaction of large plume and continental landmass the plume can contribute to splitting off individual lithosphere blocks, and their subsequent movement into the emergent ocean. At the same time enriched plume components often have geochemical characteristics of the intact continental lithosphere by early plume exposure. This is typical for trap magmatism in Antarctica, and for magmatism of North and Central Atlantic margins; - in the course of the geodynamic reconstruction under the whole region of the South Atlantic was formed (not in one step) metasomatized enriched sub-oceanic mantle with pyroxenite mantle geochemical characteristics and isotopic composition of enriched HIMU and EM-2 sources. That is typical for most of the islands in the West Antarctic. This mantle through spreading axes jumping involved in different proportions in the melting under the influence of higher-temperature rising asthenospheric lherzolite mantle; - CAP activity was brief enough (200 ± 2 Ma), but Karoo-Maud plume worked for a longer time and continued from 180 to 170 Ma ago in the main phase. Plume impact within Antarctica distributed to the South and to the East, leading to the formation of extended igneous provinces along the Transantarctic Mountains and along the east coast (Queen Maud Land province and Schirmacher Oasis). Moreover, this plume activity may be continued later on, after about 40 million years cessation, as Kerguelen plume within the newly-formed Indian Ocean, significantly affects the nature of the rift magmatism; - a large extended uplift in the eastern part of the Indian Ocean - Southeastern Indian Ridge (SEIR) was formed on the ancient spreading Wharton ridge near active Kerguelen plume. The strongest plume influence on the SEIR formation occurred 70-50 mln years ago, when the process of primary magma generation happened at high degrees of melting (up to 30%), which is not typical for spreading ridges of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. According to geochemical characteristics of the Kerguelen Plateau and SEIR magma sources close to each other, and have an enriched source of more typical for Kerguelen plume magmas and diluted by depleted substance for SEIR melts. Appearance of magmatism on the Antarctic margin about 56 thousand years ago, in the form of a stratovolcano Gaussberg indicates sublithospheric Kerguelen plume distribution in the south-west direction. The source of primary magmas (lamproite composition) is an ancient Gondwana lithosphere, has undergone repeated changes in the early stages of evolution during which it was significantly enriched in volatile and lithophile elements, and radiogenic Sr and Pb.

Simulation of anisoplanatic imaging through optical turbulence using numerical wave propagation with new validation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardie, Russell C.; Power, Jonathan D.; LeMaster, Daniel A.; Droege, Douglas R.; Gladysz, Szymon; Bose-Pillai, Santasri

2017-07-01

We present a numerical wave propagation method for simulating imaging of an extended scene under anisoplanatic conditions. While isoplanatic simulation is relatively common, few tools are specifically designed for simulating the imaging of extended scenes under anisoplanatic conditions. We provide a complete description of the proposed simulation tool, including the wave propagation method used. Our approach computes an array of point spread functions (PSFs) for a two-dimensional grid on the object plane. The PSFs are then used in a spatially varying weighted sum operation, with an ideal image, to produce a simulated image with realistic optical turbulence degradation. The degradation includes spatially varying warping and blurring. To produce the PSF array, we generate a series of extended phase screens. Simulated point sources are numerically propagated from an array of positions on the object plane, through the phase screens, and ultimately to the focal plane of the simulated camera. Note that the optical path for each PSF will be different, and thus, pass through a different portion of the extended phase screens. These different paths give rise to a spatially varying PSF to produce anisoplanatic effects. We use a method for defining the individual phase screen statistics that we have not seen used in previous anisoplanatic simulations. We also present a validation analysis. In particular, we compare simulated outputs with the theoretical anisoplanatic tilt correlation and a derived differential tilt variance statistic. This is in addition to comparing the long- and short-exposure PSFs and isoplanatic angle. We believe this analysis represents the most thorough validation of an anisoplanatic simulation to date. The current work is also unique that we simulate and validate both constant and varying Cn2(z) profiles. Furthermore, we simulate sequences with both temporally independent and temporally correlated turbulence effects. Temporal correlation is introduced by generating even larger extended phase screens and translating this block of screens in front of the propagation area. Our validation analysis shows an excellent match between the simulation statistics and the theoretical predictions. Thus, we think this tool can be used effectively to study optical anisoplanatic turbulence and to aid in the development of image restoration methods.

Computationally efficient statistical differential equation modeling using homogenization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, Mevin B.; Garlick, Martha J.; Powell, James A.

2013-01-01

Statistical models using partial differential equations (PDEs) to describe dynamically evolving natural systems are appearing in the scientific literature with some regularity in recent years. Often such studies seek to characterize the dynamics of temporal or spatio-temporal phenomena such as invasive species, consumer-resource interactions, community evolution, and resource selection. Specifically, in the spatial setting, data are often available at varying spatial and temporal scales. Additionally, the necessary numerical integration of a PDE may be computationally infeasible over the spatial support of interest. We present an approach to impose computationally advantageous changes of support in statistical implementations of PDE models and demonstrate its utility through simulation using a form of PDE known as “ecological diffusion.” We also apply a statistical ecological diffusion model to a data set involving the spread of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) in Idaho, USA.

Modeling the Spatial Distribution and Fruiting Pattern of a Key Tree Species in a Neotropical Forest: Methodology and Potential Applications

PubMed Central

Scarpino, Samuel V.; Jansen, Patrick A.; Garzon-Lopez, Carol X.; Winkelhagen, Annemarie J. S.; Bohlman, Stephanie A.; Walsh, Peter D.

2010-01-01

Background The movement patterns of wild animals depend crucially on the spatial and temporal availability of resources in their habitat. To date, most attempts to model this relationship were forced to rely on simplified assumptions about the spatiotemporal distribution of food resources. Here we demonstrate how advances in statistics permit the combination of sparse ground sampling with remote sensing imagery to generate biological relevant, spatially and temporally explicit distributions of food resources. We illustrate our procedure by creating a detailed simulation model of fruit production patterns for Dipteryx oleifera, a keystone tree species, on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. Methodology and Principal Findings Aerial photographs providing GPS positions for large, canopy trees, the complete census of a 50-ha and 25-ha area, diameter at breast height data from haphazardly sampled trees and long-term phenology data from six trees were used to fit 1) a point process model of tree spatial distribution and 2) a generalized linear mixed-effect model of temporal variation of fruit production. The fitted parameters from these models are then used to create a stochastic simulation model which incorporates spatio-temporal variations of D. oleifera fruit availability on BCI. Conclusions and Significance We present a framework that can provide a statistical characterization of the habitat that can be included in agent-based models of animal movements. When environmental heterogeneity cannot be exhaustively mapped, this approach can be a powerful alternative. The results of our model on the spatio-temporal variation in D. oleifera fruit availability will be used to understand behavioral and movement patterns of several species on BCI. PMID:21124927

Synchronized multiartifact reduction with tomographic reconstruction (SMART-RECON): A statistical model based iterative image reconstruction method to eliminate limited-view artifacts and to mitigate the temporal-average artifacts in time-resolved CT.

PubMed

Chen, Guang-Hong; Li, Yinsheng

2015-08-01

In x-ray computed tomography (CT), a violation of the Tuy data sufficiency condition leads to limited-view artifacts. In some applications, it is desirable to use data corresponding to a narrow temporal window to reconstruct images with reduced temporal-average artifacts. However, the need to reduce temporal-average artifacts in practice may result in a violation of the Tuy condition and thus undesirable limited-view artifacts. In this paper, the authors present a new iterative reconstruction method, synchronized multiartifact reduction with tomographic reconstruction (SMART-RECON), to eliminate limited-view artifacts using data acquired within an ultranarrow temporal window that severely violates the Tuy condition. In time-resolved contrast enhanced CT acquisitions, image contrast dynamically changes during data acquisition. Each image reconstructed from data acquired in a given temporal window represents one time frame and can be denoted as an image vector. Conventionally, each individual time frame is reconstructed independently. In this paper, all image frames are grouped into a spatial-temporal image matrix and are reconstructed together. Rather than the spatial and/or temporal smoothing regularizers commonly used in iterative image reconstruction, the nuclear norm of the spatial-temporal image matrix is used in SMART-RECON to regularize the reconstruction of all image time frames. This regularizer exploits the low-dimensional structure of the spatial-temporal image matrix to mitigate limited-view artifacts when an ultranarrow temporal window is desired in some applications to reduce temporal-average artifacts. Both numerical simulations in two dimensional image slices with known ground truth and in vivo human subject data acquired in a contrast enhanced cone beam CT exam have been used to validate the proposed SMART-RECON algorithm and to demonstrate the initial performance of the algorithm. Reconstruction errors and temporal fidelity of the reconstructed images were quantified using the relative root mean square error (rRMSE) and the universal quality index (UQI) in numerical simulations. The performance of the SMART-RECON algorithm was compared with that of the prior image constrained compressed sensing (PICCS) reconstruction quantitatively in simulations and qualitatively in human subject exam. In numerical simulations, the 240(∘) short scan angular span was divided into four consecutive 60(∘) angular subsectors. SMART-RECON enables four high temporal fidelity images without limited-view artifacts. The average rRMSE is 16% and UQIs are 0.96 and 0.95 for the two local regions of interest, respectively. In contrast, the corresponding average rRMSE and UQIs are 25%, 0.78, and 0.81, respectively, for the PICCS reconstruction. Note that only one filtered backprojection image can be reconstructed from the same data set with an average rRMSE and UQIs are 45%, 0.71, and 0.79, respectively, to benchmark reconstruction accuracies. For in vivo contrast enhanced cone beam CT data acquired from a short scan angular span of 200(∘), three 66(∘) angular subsectors were used in SMART-RECON. The results demonstrated clear contrast difference in three SMART-RECON reconstructed image volumes without limited-view artifacts. In contrast, for the same angular sectors, PICCS cannot reconstruct images without limited-view artifacts and with clear contrast difference in three reconstructed image volumes. In time-resolved CT, the proposed SMART-RECON method provides a new method to eliminate limited-view artifacts using data acquired in an ultranarrow temporal window, which corresponds to approximately 60(∘) angular subsectors.

Modelling carbon responses of tundra ecosystems to historical and projected climate: Sensitivity of pan-Arctic carbon storage to temporal and spatial variation in climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGuire, A.D.; Clein, Joy S.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Meier, R.A.; Vorosmarty, C.J.; Serreze, Mark C.

2000-01-01

Historical and projected climate trends for high latitudes show substantial temporal and spatial variability. To identify uncertainties in simulating carbon (C) dynamics for pan-Arctic tundra, we compare the historical and projected responses of tundra C storage from 1921 to 2100 between simulations by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) for the pan-Arctic and the Kuparuk River Basin, which was the focus of an integrated study of C dynamics from 1994 to 1996. In the historical period from 1921 to 1994, the responses of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (RH) simulated for the Kuparuk River Basin and the pan-Arctic are correlated with the same factors; NPP is positively correlated with net nitrogen mineralization (NMIN) and RH is negatively correlated with mean annual soil moisture. In comparison to the historical period, the spatially aggregated responses of NPP and RH for the Kuparuk River Basin and the pan-Arctic in our simulations for the projected period have different sensitivities to temperature, soil moisture and NMIN. In addition to being sensitive to soil moisture during the projected period, RH is also sensitive to temperature and there is a significant correlation between RH and NMIN. We interpret the increases in NPP during the projected period as being driven primarily by increases in NMIN, and that the correlation between NPP and temperature in the projected period is a result primarily of the causal linkage between temperature, RH, and NMIN. Although similar factors appear to be controlling simulated regional-and biome-scale C dynamics, simulated C dynamics at the two scales differ in magnitude with higher increases in C storage simulated for the Kuparuk River Basin than for the pan-Arctic at the end of the historical period and throughout the projected period. Also, the results of the simulations indicate that responses of C storage show different climate sensitivities at regional and pan-Arctic spatial scales and that these sensitivities change across the temporal scope of the simulations. The results of the TEM simulations indicate that the scaling of C dynamics to a region of arctic tundra may not represent C dynamics of pan-Arctic tundra because of the limited spatial variation in climate and vegetation within a region relative to the pan-Arctic. For reducing uncertainties, our analyses highlight the importance of incorporating the understanding gained from process-level studies of C dynamics in a region of arctic tundra into process-based models that simulate C dynamics in a spatially explicit fashion across the spatial domain of pan-Arctic tundra. Also, efforts to improve gridded datasets of historical climate for the pan-Arctic would advance the ability to assess the responses of C dynamics for pan-Arctic tundra in a more realistic fashion. A major challenge will be to incorporate topographic controls over soil moisture in assessing the response of C storage for pan-Arctic tundra.

Effects of the infectious period distribution on predicted transitions in childhood disease dynamics

PubMed Central

Krylova, Olga; Earn, David J. D.

2013-01-01

The population dynamics of infectious diseases occasionally undergo rapid qualitative changes, such as transitions from annual to biennial cycles or to irregular dynamics. Previous work, based on the standard seasonally forced ‘susceptible–exposed–infectious–removed’ (SEIR) model has found that transitions in the dynamics of many childhood diseases result from bifurcations induced by slow changes in birth and vaccination rates. However, the standard SEIR formulation assumes that the stage durations (latent and infectious periods) are exponentially distributed, whereas real distributions are narrower and centred around the mean. Much recent work has indicated that realistically distributed stage durations strongly affect the dynamical structure of seasonally forced epidemic models. We investigate whether inferences drawn from previous analyses of transitions in patterns of measles dynamics are robust to the shapes of the stage duration distributions. As an illustrative example, we analyse measles dynamics in New York City from 1928 to 1972. We find that with a fixed mean infectious period in the susceptible–infectious–removed (SIR) model, the dynamical structure and predicted transitions vary substantially as a function of the shape of the infectious period distribution. By contrast, with fixed mean latent and infectious periods in the SEIR model, the shapes of the stage duration distributions have a less dramatic effect on model dynamical structure and predicted transitions. All these results can be understood more easily by considering the distribution of the disease generation time as opposed to the distributions of individual disease stages. Numerical bifurcation analysis reveals that for a given mean generation time the dynamics of the SIR and SEIR models for measles are nearly equivalent and are insensitive to the shapes of the disease stage distributions. PMID:23676892

Effects of the infectious period distribution on predicted transitions in childhood disease dynamics.

PubMed

Krylova, Olga; Earn, David J D

2013-07-06

The population dynamics of infectious diseases occasionally undergo rapid qualitative changes, such as transitions from annual to biennial cycles or to irregular dynamics. Previous work, based on the standard seasonally forced 'susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed' (SEIR) model has found that transitions in the dynamics of many childhood diseases result from bifurcations induced by slow changes in birth and vaccination rates. However, the standard SEIR formulation assumes that the stage durations (latent and infectious periods) are exponentially distributed, whereas real distributions are narrower and centred around the mean. Much recent work has indicated that realistically distributed stage durations strongly affect the dynamical structure of seasonally forced epidemic models. We investigate whether inferences drawn from previous analyses of transitions in patterns of measles dynamics are robust to the shapes of the stage duration distributions. As an illustrative example, we analyse measles dynamics in New York City from 1928 to 1972. We find that with a fixed mean infectious period in the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model, the dynamical structure and predicted transitions vary substantially as a function of the shape of the infectious period distribution. By contrast, with fixed mean latent and infectious periods in the SEIR model, the shapes of the stage duration distributions have a less dramatic effect on model dynamical structure and predicted transitions. All these results can be understood more easily by considering the distribution of the disease generation time as opposed to the distributions of individual disease stages. Numerical bifurcation analysis reveals that for a given mean generation time the dynamics of the SIR and SEIR models for measles are nearly equivalent and are insensitive to the shapes of the disease stage distributions.

Bayesian inference in an extended SEIR model with nonparametric disease transmission rate: an application to the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone.

PubMed

Frasso, Gianluca; Lambert, Philippe

2016-10-01

SummaryThe 2014 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone is analyzed using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) epidemic compartmental model. The discrete time-stochastic model for the epidemic evolution is coupled to a set of ordinary differential equations describing the dynamics of the expected proportions of subjects in each epidemic state. The unknown parameters are estimated in a Bayesian framework by combining data on the number of new (laboratory confirmed) Ebola cases reported by the Ministry of Health and prior distributions for the transition rates elicited using information collected by the WHO during the follow-up of specific Ebola cases. The time-varying disease transmission rate is modeled in a flexible way using penalized B-splines. Our framework represents a valuable stochastic tool for the study of an epidemic dynamic even when only irregularly observed and possibly aggregated data are available. Simulations and the analysis of the 2014 Sierra Leone Ebola data highlight the merits of the proposed methodology. In particular, the flexible modeling of the disease transmission rate makes the estimation of the effective reproduction number robust to the misspecification of the initial epidemic states and to underreporting of the infectious cases. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Variability of 4D flow parameters when subjected to changes in MRI acquisition parameters using a realistic thoracic aortic phantom.

PubMed

Montalba, Cristian; Urbina, Jesus; Sotelo, Julio; Andia, Marcelo E; Tejos, Cristian; Irarrazaval, Pablo; Hurtado, Daniel E; Valverde, Israel; Uribe, Sergio

2018-04-01

To assess the variability of peak flow, mean velocity, stroke volume, and wall shear stress measurements derived from 3D cine phase contrast (4D flow) sequences under different conditions of spatial and temporal resolutions. We performed controlled experiments using a thoracic aortic phantom. The phantom was connected to a pulsatile flow pump, which simulated nine physiological conditions. For each condition, 4D flow data were acquired with different spatial and temporal resolutions. The 2D cine phase contrast and 4D flow data with the highest available spatio-temporal resolution were considered as a reference for comparison purposes. When comparing 4D flow acquisitions (spatial and temporal resolution of 2.0 × 2.0 × 2.0 mm 3 and 40 ms, respectively) with 2D phase-contrast flow acquisitions, the underestimation of peak flow, mean velocity, and stroke volume were 10.5, 10 and 5%, respectively. However, the calculated wall shear stress showed an underestimation larger than 70% for the former acquisition, with respect to 4D flow, with spatial and temporal resolution of 1.0 × 1.0 × 1.0 mm 3 and 20 ms, respectively. Peak flow, mean velocity, and stroke volume from 4D flow data are more sensitive to changes of temporal than spatial resolution, as opposed to wall shear stress, which is more sensitive to changes in spatial resolution. Magn Reson Med 79:1882-1892, 2018. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Analysis of Large Scale Spatial Variability of Soil Moisture Using a Geostatistical Method

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-25

2010 / Accepted: 19 January 2010 / Published: 25 January 2010 Abstract: Spatial and temporal soil moisture dynamics are critically needed to...scale observed and simulated estimates of soil moisture under pre- and post-precipitation event conditions. This large scale variability is a crucial... dynamics is essential in the hydrological and meteorological modeling, improves our understanding of land surface–atmosphere interactions. Spatial and

Simulating forest fuel and fire risk dynamics across landscapes--LANDIS fuel module design

Treesearch

Hong S. He; Bo Z. Shang; Thomas R. Crow; Eric J. Gustafson; Stephen R. Shifley

2004-01-01

Understanding fuel dynamics over large spatial (103-106 ha) and temporal scales (101-103 years) is important in comprehensive wildfire management. We present a modeling approach to simulate fuel and fire risk dynamics as well as impacts of alternative fuel treatments. The...

APPLICATION OF THE HSPF MODEL TO THE SOUTH FORK OF THE BROAD RIVER WATERSHED IN NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA

EPA Science Inventory

The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) is a comprehensive watershed model which simulates hydrology and water quality at user-specified temporal and spatial scales. Well-established model calibration and validation procedures are followed when adjusting model paramete...

An effective online data monitoring and saving strategy for large-scale climate simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xian, Xiaochen; Archibald, Rick; Mayer, Benjamin

Large-scale climate simulation models have been developed and widely used to generate historical data and study future climate scenarios. These simulation models often have to run for a couple of months to understand the changes in the global climate over the course of decades. This long-duration simulation process creates a huge amount of data with both high temporal and spatial resolution information; however, how to effectively monitor and record the climate changes based on these large-scale simulation results that are continuously produced in real time still remains to be resolved. Due to the slow process of writing data to disk,more » the current practice is to save a snapshot of the simulation results at a constant, slow rate although the data generation process runs at a very high speed. This study proposes an effective online data monitoring and saving strategy over the temporal and spatial domains with the consideration of practical storage and memory capacity constraints. Finally, our proposed method is able to intelligently select and record the most informative extreme values in the raw data generated from real-time simulations in the context of better monitoring climate changes.« less

An effective online data monitoring and saving strategy for large-scale climate simulations

DOE PAGES

Xian, Xiaochen; Archibald, Rick; Mayer, Benjamin; ...

2018-01-22

Large-scale climate simulation models have been developed and widely used to generate historical data and study future climate scenarios. These simulation models often have to run for a couple of months to understand the changes in the global climate over the course of decades. This long-duration simulation process creates a huge amount of data with both high temporal and spatial resolution information; however, how to effectively monitor and record the climate changes based on these large-scale simulation results that are continuously produced in real time still remains to be resolved. Due to the slow process of writing data to disk,more » the current practice is to save a snapshot of the simulation results at a constant, slow rate although the data generation process runs at a very high speed. This study proposes an effective online data monitoring and saving strategy over the temporal and spatial domains with the consideration of practical storage and memory capacity constraints. Finally, our proposed method is able to intelligently select and record the most informative extreme values in the raw data generated from real-time simulations in the context of better monitoring climate changes.« less

Simulating the IPOD, East Asian summer monsoon, and their relationships in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Miao; Li, Jianping; Zheng, Fei; Wang, Xiaofan; Zheng, Jiayu

2018-03-01

This paper evaluates the simulation performance of the 37 coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) with respect to the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indo-Pacific warm pool and North Pacific Ocean dipole (IPOD) and also the interrelationships between them. The results show that the majority of the models are unable to accurately simulate the interannual variability and long-term trends of the EASM, and their simulations of the temporal and spatial variations of the IPOD are also limited. Further analysis showed that the correlation coefficients between the simulated and observed EASM index (EASMI) is proportional to those between the simulated and observed IPOD index (IPODI); that is, if the models have skills to simulate one of them then they will likely generate good simulations of another. Based on the above relationship, this paper proposes a conditional multi-model ensemble method (CMME) that eliminates those models without capability to simulate the IPOD and EASM when calculating the multi-model ensemble (MME). The analysis shows that, compared with the MME, this CMME method can significantly improve the simulations of the spatial and temporal variations of both the IPOD and EASM as well as their interrelationship, suggesting the potential for the CMME approach to be used in place of the MME method.

An Agent-Based Model of School Closing in Under-Vacccinated Communities During Measles Outbreaks.

PubMed

Getz, Wayne M; Carlson, Colin; Dougherty, Eric; Porco Francis, Travis C; Salter, Richard

2016-04-01

The winter 2014-15 measles outbreak in the US represents a significant crisis in the emergence of a functionally extirpated pathogen. Conclusively linking this outbreak to decreases in the measles/mumps/rubella (MMR) vaccination rate (driven by anti-vaccine sentiment) is critical to motivating MMR vaccination. We used the NOVA modeling platform to build a stochastic, spatially-structured, individual-based SEIR model of outbreaks, under the assumption that R 0 ≈ 7 for measles. We show this implies that herd immunity requires vaccination coverage of greater than approximately 85%. We used a network structured version of our NOVA model that involved two communities, one at the relatively low coverage of 85% coverage and one at the higher coverage of 95%, both of which had 400-student schools embedded, as well as students occasionally visiting superspreading sites (e.g. high-density theme parks, cinemas, etc.). These two vaccination coverage levels are within the range of values occurring across California counties. Transmission rates at schools and superspreading sites were arbitrarily set to respectively 5 and 15 times background community rates. Simulations of our model demonstrate that a 'send unvaccinated students home' policy in low coverage counties is extremely effective at shutting down outbreaks of measles.

An Agent-Based Model of School Closing in Under-Vacccinated Communities During Measles Outbreaks

PubMed Central

Getz, Wayne M.; Carlson, Colin; Dougherty, Eric; Porco, Travis C.; Salter, Richard

2016-01-01

The winter 2014–15 measles outbreak in the US represents a significant crisis in the emergence of a functionally extirpated pathogen. Conclusively linking this outbreak to decreases in the measles/mumps/rubella (MMR) vaccination rate (driven by anti-vaccine sentiment) is critical to motivating MMR vaccination. We used the NOVA modeling platform to build a stochastic, spatially-structured, individual-based SEIR model of outbreaks, under the assumption that R0 ≈ 7 for measles. We show this implies that herd immunity requires vaccination coverage of greater than approximately 85%. We used a network structured version of our NOVA model that involved two communities, one at the relatively low coverage of 85% coverage and one at the higher coverage of 95%, both of which had 400-student schools embedded, as well as students occasionally visiting superspreading sites (e.g. high-density theme parks, cinemas, etc.). These two vaccination coverage levels are within the range of values occurring across California counties. Transmission rates at schools and superspreading sites were arbitrarily set to respectively 5 and 15 times background community rates. Simulations of our model demonstrate that a ‘send unvaccinated students home’ policy in low coverage counties is extremely effective at shutting down outbreaks of measles. PMID:27668297

Space and time aliasing structure is monthly mean polar-orbiting satellite data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeng, Lixin; Levy, Gad

1995-01-01

Monthly mean wind fields from the European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS1) scatterometer are presented. A banded structure which resembles the satellite subtrack is clearly and consistently apparent in the isotachs as well as the u and v components of the routinely produced fields. The structure also appears in the means of data from other polar-orbiting satellites and instruments. An experiment is designed to trace the cause of the banded structure. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) gridded surface wind analyses are used as a control set. These analyses are also sampled with the ERS1 temporal-spatial samplig pattern to form a simulated scatterometer wind set. Both sets are used to create monthly averages. The banded structures appear in the monthly mean simulated data but do not appear in the control set. It is concluded that the source of the banded structure lies in the spatial and temporal sampling of the polar-orbiting satellite which results in undersampling. The problem involves multiple timescales and space scales, oversampling and under-sampling in space, aliasing in the time and space domains, and preferentially sampled variability. It is shown that commonly used spatial smoothers (or filters), while producing visually pleasing results, also significantly bias the true mean. A three-dimensional spatial-temporal interpolator is designed and used to determine the mean field. It is found to produce satisfactory monthly means from both simulated and real ERS1 data. The implications to climate studies involving polar-orbiting satellite data are discussed.

The Impact of Horizontal and Temporal Resolution on Convection and Precipitation with High-Resolution GEOS-5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putman, William P.

2012-01-01

Using a high-resolution non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5 with the cubed-sphere finite-volume dynamical core, the impact of spatial and temporal resolution on cloud properties will be evaluated. There are indications from examining convective cluster development in high resolution GEOS-5 forecasts that the temporal resolution within the model may playas significant a role as horizontal resolution. Comparing modeled convective cloud clusters versus satellite observations of brightness temperature, we have found that improved. temporal resolution in GEOS-S accounts for a significant portion of the improvements in the statistical distribution of convective cloud clusters. Using satellite simulators in GEOS-S we will compare the cloud optical properties of GEOS-S at various spatial and temporal resolutions with those observed from MODIS. The potential impact of these results on tropical cyclone formation and intensity will be examined as well.

Simulating spatial and temporal context of forest management using hypothetical landscapes

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Thomas R. Crow

1998-01-01

Spatially explicit models that combine remote sensing with geographic information systems (GIS) offer great promise to land managers because they consider the arrangement of landscape elements in time and space. Their visual and geographic nature facilitate the comparison of alternative landscape designs. Among various activities associated with forest management,...

Climate change, fisheries management and fishing aptitude affecting spatial and temporal distributions of the Barents Sea cod fishery.

PubMed

Eide, Arne

2017-12-01

Climate change is expected to influence spatial and temporal distributions of fish stocks. The aim of this paper is to compare climate change impact on a fishery with other factors impacting the performance of fishing fleets. The fishery in question is the Northeast Arctic cod fishery, a well-documented fishery where data on spatial and temporal distributions are available. A cellular automata model is developed for the purpose of mimicking possible distributional patterns and different management alternatives are studied under varying assumptions on the fleets' fishing aptitude. Fisheries management and fishing aptitude, also including technological development and local knowledge, turn out to have the greatest impact on the spatial distribution of the fishing effort, when comparing the IPCC's SRES A1B scenario with repeated sequences of the current environmental situation over a period of 45 years. In both cases, the highest profits in the simulation period of 45 years are obtained at low exploitation levels and moderate fishing aptitude.

Assessing the Resolution Adaptability of the Zhang-McFarlane Cumulus Parameterization With Spatial and Temporal Averaging: RESOLUTION ADAPTABILITY OF ZM SCHEME

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yun, Yuxing; Fan, Jiwen; Xiao, Heng

Realistic modeling of cumulus convection at fine model resolutions (a few to a few tens of km) is problematic since it requires the cumulus scheme to adapt to higher resolution than they were originally designed for (~100 km). To solve this problem, we implement the spatial averaging method proposed in Xiao et al. (2015) and also propose a temporal averaging method for the large-scale convective available potential energy (CAPE) tendency in the Zhang-McFarlane (ZM) cumulus parameterization. The resolution adaptability of the original ZM scheme, the scheme with spatial averaging, and the scheme with both spatial and temporal averaging at 4-32more » km resolution is assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, by comparing with Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) results. We find that the original ZM scheme has very poor resolution adaptability, with sub-grid convective transport and precipitation increasing significantly as the resolution increases. The spatial averaging method improves the resolution adaptability of the ZM scheme and better conserves the total transport of moist static energy and total precipitation. With the temporal averaging method, the resolution adaptability of the scheme is further improved, with sub-grid convective precipitation becoming smaller than resolved precipitation for resolution higher than 8 km, which is consistent with the results from the CRM simulation. Both the spatial distribution and time series of precipitation are improved with the spatial and temporal averaging methods. The results may be helpful for developing resolution adaptability for other cumulus parameterizations that are based on quasi-equilibrium assumption.« less

On the use of satellite-based estimates of rainfall temporal distribution to simulate the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, Teresa K.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2011-02-01

This paper describes the use of satellite-based estimates of rainfall to force the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS), a hydrology-based mechanistic model of malaria transmission. We first examined the temporal resolution of rainfall input required by HYDREMATS. Simulations conducted over Banizoumbou village in Niger showed that for reasonably accurate simulation of mosquito populations, the model requires rainfall data with at least 1 h resolution. We then investigated whether HYDREMATS could be effectively forced by satellite-based estimates of rainfall instead of ground-based observations. The Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) precipitation estimates distributed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are available at a 30 min temporal resolution and 8 km spatial resolution. We compared mosquito populations simulated by HYDREMATS when the model is forced by adjusted CMORPH estimates and by ground observations. The results demonstrate that adjusted rainfall estimates from satellites can be used with a mechanistic model to accurately simulate the dynamics of mosquito populations.

Numerical simulations of self-focusing of ultrafast laser pulses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fibich, Gadi; Ren, Weiqing; Wang, Xiao-Ping

2003-05-01

Simulation of nonlinear propagation of intense ultrafast laser pulses is a hard problem, because of the steep spatial gradients and the temporal shocks that form during the propagation. In this study we adapt the iterative grid distribution method of Ren and Wang [J. Comput. Phys. 159, 246 (2000)] to solve the two-dimensional nonlinear Schrödinger equation with normal time dispersion, space-time focusing, and self-steepening. Our simulations show that, after the asymmetric temporal pulse splitting, the rear peak self-focuses faster than the front one. As a result, the collapse of the rear peak is arrested before that of the front peak. Unlike what has sometimes been conjectured, however, collapse of the two peaks is not arrested through multiple splittings, but rather through temporal dispersion.

Experimental and numerical investigations of temporally and spatially periodic modulated wave trains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houtani, H.; Waseda, T.; Tanizawa, K.

2018-03-01

A number of studies on steep nonlinear waves were conducted experimentally with the temporally periodic and spatially evolving (TPSE) wave trains and numerically with the spatially periodic and temporally evolving (SPTE) ones. The present study revealed that, in the vicinity of their maximum crest height, the wave profiles of TPSE and SPTE modulated wave trains resemble each other. From the investigation of the Akhmediev-breather solution of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLSE), it is revealed that the dispersion relation deviated from the quadratic dependence of frequency on wavenumber and became linearly dependent instead. Accordingly, the wave profiles of TPSE and SPTE breathers agree. The range of this agreement is within the order of one wave group of the maximum crest height and persists during the long-term evolution. The findings extend well beyond the NLSE regime and can be applied to modulated wave trains that are highly nonlinear and broad-banded. This was demonstrated from the numerical wave tank simulations with a fully nonlinear potential flow solver based on the boundary element method, in combination with the nonlinear wave generation method based on the prior simulation with the higher-order spectral model. The numerical wave tank results were confirmed experimentally in a physical wave tank. The findings of this study unravel the fundamental nature of the nonlinear wave evolution. The deviation of the dispersion relation of the modulated wave trains occurs because of the nonlinear phase variation due to quasi-resonant interaction, and consequently, the wave geometry of temporally and spatially periodic modulated wave trains coincides.

Computationally efficient video restoration for Nyquist sampled imaging sensors combining an affine-motion-based temporal Kalman filter and adaptive Wiener filter.

PubMed

Rucci, Michael; Hardie, Russell C; Barnard, Kenneth J

2014-05-01

In this paper, we present a computationally efficient video restoration algorithm to address both blur and noise for a Nyquist sampled imaging system. The proposed method utilizes a temporal Kalman filter followed by a correlation-model based spatial adaptive Wiener filter (AWF). The Kalman filter employs an affine background motion model and novel process-noise variance estimate. We also propose and demonstrate a new multidelay temporal Kalman filter designed to more robustly treat local motion. The AWF is a spatial operation that performs deconvolution and adapts to the spatially varying residual noise left in the Kalman filter stage. In image areas where the temporal Kalman filter is able to provide significant noise reduction, the AWF can be aggressive in its deconvolution. In other areas, where less noise reduction is achieved with the Kalman filter, the AWF balances the deconvolution with spatial noise reduction. In this way, the Kalman filter and AWF work together effectively, but without the computational burden of full joint spatiotemporal processing. We also propose a novel hybrid system that combines a temporal Kalman filter and BM3D processing. To illustrate the efficacy of the proposed methods, we test the algorithms on both simulated imagery and video collected with a visible camera.

Denoising Algorithm for CFA Image Sensors Considering Inter-Channel Correlation.

PubMed

Lee, Min Seok; Park, Sang Wook; Kang, Moon Gi

2017-05-28

In this paper, a spatio-spectral-temporal filter considering an inter-channel correlation is proposed for the denoising of a color filter array (CFA) sequence acquired by CCD/CMOS image sensors. Owing to the alternating under-sampled grid of the CFA pattern, the inter-channel correlation must be considered in the direct denoising process. The proposed filter is applied in the spatial, spectral, and temporal domain, considering the spatio-tempo-spectral correlation. First, nonlocal means (NLM) spatial filtering with patch-based difference (PBD) refinement is performed by considering both the intra-channel correlation and inter-channel correlation to overcome the spatial resolution degradation occurring with the alternating under-sampled pattern. Second, a motion-compensated temporal filter that employs inter-channel correlated motion estimation and compensation is proposed to remove the noise in the temporal domain. Then, a motion adaptive detection value controls the ratio of the spatial filter and the temporal filter. The denoised CFA sequence can thus be obtained without motion artifacts. Experimental results for both simulated and real CFA sequences are presented with visual and numerical comparisons to several state-of-the-art denoising methods combined with a demosaicing method. Experimental results confirmed that the proposed frameworks outperformed the other techniques in terms of the objective criteria and subjective visual perception in CFA sequences.

Functional Nonlinear Mixed Effects Models For Longitudinal Image Data

PubMed Central

Luo, Xinchao; Zhu, Lixing; Kong, Linglong; Zhu, Hongtu

2015-01-01

Motivated by studying large-scale longitudinal image data, we propose a novel functional nonlinear mixed effects modeling (FN-MEM) framework to model the nonlinear spatial-temporal growth patterns of brain structure and function and their association with covariates of interest (e.g., time or diagnostic status). Our FNMEM explicitly quantifies a random nonlinear association map of individual trajectories. We develop an efficient estimation method to estimate the nonlinear growth function and the covariance operator of the spatial-temporal process. We propose a global test and a simultaneous confidence band for some specific growth patterns. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation to examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed procedures. We apply FNMEM to investigate the spatial-temporal dynamics of white-matter fiber skeletons in a national database for autism research. Our FNMEM may provide a valuable tool for charting the developmental trajectories of various neuropsychiatric and neurodegenerative disorders. PMID:26213453

Applications of genetic data to improve management and conservation of river fishes and their habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, Kim T.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Landguth, Erin L.; Luikart, Gordon; Infante, Dana M.; Whelan, Gary; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

2015-01-01

Environmental variation and landscape features affect ecological processes in fluvial systems; however, assessing effects at management-relevant temporal and spatial scales is challenging. Genetic data can be used with landscape models and traditional ecological assessment data to identify biodiversity hotspots, predict ecosystem responses to anthropogenic effects, and detect impairments to underlying processes. We show that by combining taxonomic, demographic, and genetic data of species in complex riverscapes, managers can better understand the spatial and temporal scales over which environmental processes and disturbance influence biodiversity. We describe how population genetic models using empirical or simulated genetic data quantify effects of environmental processes affecting species diversity and distribution. Our summary shows that aquatic assessment initiatives that use standardized data sets to direct management actions can benefit from integration of genetic data to improve the predictability of disturbance–response relationships of river fishes and their habitats over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales.

Decoupled ARX and RBF Neural Network Modeling Using PCA and GA Optimization for Nonlinear Distributed Parameter Systems.

PubMed

Zhang, Ridong; Tao, Jili; Lu, Renquan; Jin, Qibing

2018-02-01

Modeling of distributed parameter systems is difficult because of their nonlinearity and infinite-dimensional characteristics. Based on principal component analysis (PCA), a hybrid modeling strategy that consists of a decoupled linear autoregressive exogenous (ARX) model and a nonlinear radial basis function (RBF) neural network model are proposed. The spatial-temporal output is first divided into a few dominant spatial basis functions and finite-dimensional temporal series by PCA. Then, a decoupled ARX model is designed to model the linear dynamics of the dominant modes of the time series. The nonlinear residual part is subsequently parameterized by RBFs, where genetic algorithm is utilized to optimize their hidden layer structure and the parameters. Finally, the nonlinear spatial-temporal dynamic system is obtained after the time/space reconstruction. Simulation results of a catalytic rod and a heat conduction equation demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed strategy compared to several other methods.

Face and content validation of a virtual reality temporal bone simulator.

PubMed

Arora, Asit; Khemani, Sam; Tolley, Neil; Singh, Arvind; Budge, James; Varela, David A Diaz Voss; Francis, Howard W; Darzi, Ara; Bhatti, Nasir I

2012-03-01

To validate the VOXEL-MAN TempoSurg simulator for temporal bone dissection. Prospective international study. Otolaryngology departments of 2 academic health care institutions in the United Kingdom and United States. Eighty-five subjects were recruited consisting of an experienced and referent group. Participants performed a standardized familiarization session and temporal bone dissection task. Realism, training effectiveness, and global impressions were evaluated across 21 domains using a 5-point Likert-type scale. A score of 4 was the minimum threshold for acceptability. The experienced group comprised 25 otolaryngology trainers who had performed 150 mastoid operations. The referent group comprised 60 trainees (mean otolaryngology experience of 2.9 years). Familiarization took longer in the experienced group (P = .01). User-friendliness was positively rated (mean score 4.1). Seventy percent of participants rated anatomical appearance as acceptable. Trainers rated drill ergonomics worse than did trainees (P = .01). Simulation temporal bone training scored highly (mean score 4.3). Surgical anatomy, drill navigation, and hand-eye coordination accounted for this. Trainees were more likely to recommend temporal bone simulation to a colleague than were trainers (P = .01). Transferability of skills to the operating room was undecided (mean score 3.5). Realism of the VOXEL-MAN virtual reality temporal bone simulator is suboptimal in its current version. Nonetheless, it represents a useful adjunct to existing training methods and is particularly beneficial for novice surgeons before performing cadaveric temporal bone dissection. Improvements in realism, specifically drill ergonomics and visual-spatial perception during deeper temporal bone dissection, are warranted.

Toward robust estimation of the components of forest population change: simulation results

Treesearch

Francis A. Roesch

2014-01-01

This report presents the full simulation results of the work described in Roesch (2014), in which multiple levels of simulation were used to test the robustness of estimators for the components of forest change. In that study, a variety of spatial-temporal populations were created based on, but more variable than, an actual forest monitoring dataset, and then those...

Assessing the efficacy of the SWAT auto-irrigation function to simulate Irrigation, evapotranspiration and crop response to irrigation management strategies of the Texas High Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is widely used for simulation of hydrologic processes at various temporal and spatial scales. Less common are long-term simulation analyses of water balance components including agricultural management practices such as irrigation management. In the se...

Spatial and temporal variability in rates of landsliding in seismically active mountain ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, R.; Petley, D.; Rosser, N.; Densmore, A.; Gunasekera, R.; Brain, M.

2012-04-01

Where earthquake and precipitation driven disasters occur in steep, mountainous regions, landslides often account for a large proportion of the associated damage and losses. This research addresses spatial and temporal variability in rates of landslide occurrence in seismically active mountain ranges as a step towards developing better regional scale prediction of losses in such events. In the first part of this paper we attempt to explain reductively the variability in spatial rates of landslide occurrence, using data from five major earthquakes. This is achieved by fitting a regression-based conditional probability model to spatial probabilities of landslide occurrence, using as predictor variables proxies for spatial patterns of seismic ground motion and modelled hillslope stability. A combined model for all earthquakes performs well in hindcasting spatial probabilities of landslide occurrence as a function of readily-attainable spatial variables. We present validation of the model and demonstrate the extent to which it may be applied globally to derive landslide probabilities for future earthquakes. In part two we examine the temporal behaviour of rates of landslide occurrence. This is achieved through numerical modelling to simulate the behaviour of a hypothetical landscape. The model landscape is composed of hillslopes that continually weaken, fail and reset in response to temporally-discrete forcing events that represent earthquakes. Hillslopes with different geometries require different amounts of weakening to fail, such that they fail and reset at different temporal rates. Our results suggest that probabilities of landslide occurrence are not temporally constant, but rather vary with time, irrespective of changes in forcing event magnitudes or environmental conditions. Various parameters influencing the magnitude and temporal patterns of this variability are identified, highlighting areas where future research is needed. This model has important implications for landslide hazard and risk analysis in mountain areas as existing techniques usually assume that susceptibility to failure does not change with time.

Multi-Resolution Climate Ensemble Parameter Analysis with Nested Parallel Coordinates Plots.

PubMed

Wang, Junpeng; Liu, Xiaotong; Shen, Han-Wei; Lin, Guang

2017-01-01

Due to the uncertain nature of weather prediction, climate simulations are usually performed multiple times with different spatial resolutions. The outputs of simulations are multi-resolution spatial temporal ensembles. Each simulation run uses a unique set of values for multiple convective parameters. Distinct parameter settings from different simulation runs in different resolutions constitute a multi-resolution high-dimensional parameter space. Understanding the correlation between the different convective parameters, and establishing a connection between the parameter settings and the ensemble outputs are crucial to domain scientists. The multi-resolution high-dimensional parameter space, however, presents a unique challenge to the existing correlation visualization techniques. We present Nested Parallel Coordinates Plot (NPCP), a new type of parallel coordinates plots that enables visualization of intra-resolution and inter-resolution parameter correlations. With flexible user control, NPCP integrates superimposition, juxtaposition and explicit encodings in a single view for comparative data visualization and analysis. We develop an integrated visual analytics system to help domain scientists understand the connection between multi-resolution convective parameters and the large spatial temporal ensembles. Our system presents intricate climate ensembles with a comprehensive overview and on-demand geographic details. We demonstrate NPCP, along with the climate ensemble visualization system, based on real-world use-cases from our collaborators in computational and predictive science.

Quantifying discharge uncertainty from remotely sensed precipitation data products in Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weerasinghe, H.; Raoufi, R.; Yoon, Y.; Beighley, E., II; Alshawabkeh, A.

2014-12-01

Preterm birth is a serious health issue in the United States that contributes to over one-third of all infant deaths. Puerto Rico being one of the hot spots, preliminary research found that the high preterm birth rate can be associated with exposure to some contaminants in water used on daily basis. Puerto Rico has more than 200 contaminated sites including 16 active Superfund sites. Risk of exposure to contaminants is aggravated by unlined landfills lying over the karst regions, highly mobile and dynamic nature of the karst aquifers, and direct contact with surface water through sinkholes and springs. Much of the population in the island is getting water from natural springs or artesian wells that are connected with many of these potentially contaminated karst aquifers. Mobility of contaminants through surface water flows and reservoirs are largely known and are highly correlated with the variations in hydrologic events and conditions. In this study, we quantify the spatial and temporal distribution of Puerto Rico's surface water stores and fluxes to better understand potential impacts on the distribution of groundwater contamination. To quantify and characterize Puerto Rico's surface waters, hydrologic modeling, remote sensing and field measurements are combined. Streamflow measurements are available from 27 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauging stations with drainage areas ranging from 2 to 510 km2. Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model is used to simulate hourly streamflow from watersheds larger than 1 km2 that discharge to ocean. HRR model simulates vertical water balance, lateral surface and subsurface runoff and river discharge. The model consists of 4418 sub-catchments with a mean model unit area (i.e., sub-catchment) of 1.8 km2. Using gauged streamflow measurements for validation, we first assess model results for simulated discharge using three precipitation products: TRMM-3B42 (3 hour temporal resolution, 0.25 degree spatial resolution); NWS stage-III radar rainfall (~ 5 min temporal resolution and 4 km spatial resolution); and gauge measurements from 37 rainfall stations for the period 2000-2012. We then explore methods for combining each product to improve overall model performance. Effects of varied spatial and temporal rainfall resolutions on simulated discharge are also investigated.

RSS Fingerprint Based Indoor Localization Using Sparse Representation with Spatio-Temporal Constraint

PubMed Central

Piao, Xinglin; Zhang, Yong; Li, Tingshu; Hu, Yongli; Liu, Hao; Zhang, Ke; Ge, Yun

2016-01-01

The Received Signal Strength (RSS) fingerprint-based indoor localization is an important research topic in wireless network communications. Most current RSS fingerprint-based indoor localization methods do not explore and utilize the spatial or temporal correlation existing in fingerprint data and measurement data, which is helpful for improving localization accuracy. In this paper, we propose an RSS fingerprint-based indoor localization method by integrating the spatio-temporal constraints into the sparse representation model. The proposed model utilizes the inherent spatial correlation of fingerprint data in the fingerprint matching and uses the temporal continuity of the RSS measurement data in the localization phase. Experiments on the simulated data and the localization tests in the real scenes show that the proposed method improves the localization accuracy and stability effectively compared with state-of-the-art indoor localization methods. PMID:27827882

Pluviometric characterization of the Coca river basin by using a stochastic rainfall model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Zeas, Dunia; Chávez-Jiménez, Adriadna; Coello-Rubio, Xavier; Correa, Ángel; Martínez-Codina, Ángela

2014-05-01

An adequate design of the hydraulic infrastructures, as well as, the prediction and simulation of a river basin require historical records with a greater temporal and spatial resolution. However, the lack of an extensive network of precipitation data, the short time scale data and the incomplete information provided by the available rainfall stations limit the analysis and design of complex hydraulic engineering systems. As a consequence, it is necessary to develop new quantitative tools in order to face this obstacle imposed by ungauged or poorly gauged basins. In this context, the use of a spatial-temporal rainfall model allows to simulate the historical behavior of the precipitation and at the same time, to obtain long-term synthetic series that preserve the extremal behavior. This paper provides a characterization of the precipitation in the Coca river basin located in Ecuador by using RainSim V3, a robust and well tested stochastic rainfall model based on a spatial-temporal Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses process. A preliminary consistency analysis of the historical rainfall data available has been done in order to identify climatic regions with similar precipitation behavior patterns. Mean and maximum yearly and monthly fields of precipitation of high resolution spaced grids have been obtained through the use of interpolation techniques. According to the climatological similarity, long time series of daily temporal resolution of precipitation have been generated in order to evaluate the model skill in capturing the structure of daily observed precipitation. The results show a good performance of the model in reproducing very well the gross statistics, including the extreme values of rainfall at daily scale. The spatial pattern represented by the observed and simulated precipitation fields highlights the existence of two important regions characterized by different pluviometric comportment, with lower precipitation in the upper part of the basin and higher precipitation in the lower part of the basin.

Monitoring air quality in mountains: Designing an effective network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, D.L.

2000-01-01

A quantitatively robust yet parsimonious air-quality monitoring network in mountainous regions requires special attention to relevant spatial and temporal scales of measurement and inference. The design of monitoring networks should focus on the objectives required by public agencies, namely: 1) determine if some threshold has been exceeded (e.g., for regulatory purposes), and 2) identify spatial patterns and temporal trends (e.g., to protect natural resources). A short-term, multi-scale assessment to quantify spatial variability in air quality is a valuable asset in designing a network, in conjunction with an evaluation of existing data and simulation-model output. A recent assessment in Washington state (USA) quantified spatial variability in tropospheric ozone distribution ranging from a single watershed to the western third of the state. Spatial and temporal coherence in ozone exposure modified by predictable elevational relationships ( 1.3 ppbv ozone per 100 m elevation gain) extends from urban areas to the crest of the Cascade Range. This suggests that a sparse network of permanent analyzers is sufficient at all spatial scales, with the option of periodic intensive measurements to validate network design. It is imperative that agencies cooperate in the design of monitoring networks in mountainous regions to optimize data collection and financial efficiencies.

Carbon arc solar simulator.

PubMed

Olson, R A; Parker, J H

1991-04-01

Measurements of the spatial, spectral, and temporal characteristics of the beam irradiance of a carbon arc solar simulator are reported. Pyroelectric radiometer measurements of total irradiance and spectroradiometer measurements of spectral irradiance are presented. The solar simulator spectral irradiance is compared with the ASTM standard AM 1.5 global solar spectral irradiance over a wavelength region of 300-2500 nm. The suitability of the solar simulator for laser receiver testing is discussed.

Coincident Occurrences of Tropical Individual Cirrus Clouds and Deep Convective Systems Derived from TRMM Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Bing; Xu, Kuan-Man; Minnis, Patrick; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Hu, Yongxiang; Chambers, Lin; Fan, Alice; Sun, Wenbo

2007-01-01

Measurements of cloud properties and atmospheric radiation taken between January and August 1998 by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite were used to investigate the effect of spatial and temporal scales on the coincident occurrences of tropical individual cirrus clouds (ICCs) and deep convective systems (DCSs). It is found that there is little or even negative correlation between instantaneous occurrences of ICC and DCS in small areas, in which both types of clouds cannot grow and expand simultaneously. When spatial and temporal domains are increased, ICCs become more dependent on DCSs due to the origination of many ICCs from DCSs and moisture supply from the DCS in the upper troposphere for the ICCs to grow, resulting in significant positive correlation between the two types of tropical high clouds in large spatial and long temporal scales. This result may suggest that the decrease of tropical high clouds with SST from model simulations is likely caused by restricted spatial domains and limited temporal periods. Finally, the radiative feedback due to the change in tropical high cloud area coverage with sea surface temperature appears small and about -0.14 W/sq m per degree Kelvin.

Economic agglomerations and spatio-temporal cycles in a spatial growth model with capital transport cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juchem Neto, J. P.; Claeyssen, J. C. R.; Pôrto Júnior, S. S.

2018-03-01

In this paper we introduce capital transport cost in a unidimensional spatial Solow-Swan model of economic growth with capital-induced labor migration, considered in an unbounded domain. Proceeding with a stability analysis, we show that there is a critical value for the capital transport cost where the dynamic behavior of the economy changes, provided that the intensity of capital-induced labor migration is strong enough. On the one hand, if the capital transport cost is higher than this critical value, the spatially homogeneous equilibrium of coexistence of the model is stable, and the economy converges to this spatially homogeneous state in the long run; on the other hand, if transport cost is lower than this critical value, the equilibrium is unstable, and the economy may develop different spatio-temporal dynamics, including the formation of stable economic agglomerations and spatio-temporal economic cycles, depending on the other parameters in the model. Finally, numerical simulations support the results of the stability analysis, and illustrate the spatio-temporal dynamics generated by the model, suggesting that the economy as a whole benefits from the formation of economic agglomerations and cycles, with a higher capital transport cost reducing this gain.

Fully coupled approach to modeling shallow water flow, sediment transport, and bed evolution in rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuangcai; Duffy, Christopher J.

2011-03-01

Our ability to predict complex environmental fluid flow and transport hinges on accurate and efficient simulations of multiple physical phenomenon operating simultaneously over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, including overbank floods, coastal storm surge events, drying and wetting bed conditions, and simultaneous bed form evolution. This research implements a fully coupled strategy for solving shallow water hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and morphological bed evolution in rivers and floodplains (PIHM_Hydro) and applies the model to field and laboratory experiments that cover a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The model uses a standard upwind finite volume method and Roe's approximate Riemann solver for unstructured grids. A multidimensional linear reconstruction and slope limiter are implemented, achieving second-order spatial accuracy. Model efficiency and stability are treated using an explicit-implicit method for temporal discretization with operator splitting. Laboratory-and field-scale experiments were compiled where coupled processes across a range of scales were observed and where higher-order spatial and temporal accuracy might be needed for accurate and efficient solutions. These experiments demonstrate the ability of the fully coupled strategy in capturing dynamics of field-scale flood waves and small-scale drying-wetting processes.

Spatial-temporal population dynamics across species range: from centre to margin

Treesearch

Qinfeng Guo; Mark Taper; Michele Schoenberger; J. Brandle

2005-01-01

Understanding the boundaries of species'rangs and the variations in population dynamics from the centre to margin of a species' range is critical. This study simulated spatial-tamporal patterns of birth and death rates and migration across a species' range in different seasons. Our results demonstrated the importance of dispersal and migration in...

A framework for simulating map error in ecosystem models

Treesearch

Sean P. Healey; Shawn P. Urbanski; Paul L. Patterson; Chris Garrard

2014-01-01

The temporal depth and spatial breadth of observations from platforms such as Landsat provide unique perspective on ecosystem dynamics, but the integration of these observations into formal decision support will rely upon improved uncertainty accounting. Monte Carlo (MC) simulations offer a practical, empirical method of accounting for potential map errors in broader...

Nonclassicality of Temporal Correlations.

PubMed

Brierley, Stephen; Kosowski, Adrian; Markiewicz, Marcin; Paterek, Tomasz; Przysiężna, Anna

2015-09-18

The results of spacelike separated measurements are independent of distant measurement settings, a property one might call two-way no-signaling. In contrast, timelike separated measurements are only one-way no-signaling since the past is independent of the future but not vice versa. For this reason some temporal correlations that are formally identical to nonclassical spatial correlations can still be modeled classically. We propose a new formulation of Bell's theorem for temporal correlations; namely, we define nonclassical temporal correlations as the ones which cannot be simulated by propagating in time the classical information content of a quantum system given by the Holevo bound. We first show that temporal correlations between results of any projective quantum measurements on a qubit can be simulated classically. Then we present a sequence of general measurements on a single m-level quantum system that cannot be explained by propagating in time an m-level classical system and using classical computers with unlimited memory.

Exploring the Spatial and Temporal Organization of a Cell’s Proteome

PubMed Central

Beck, Martin; Topf, Maya; Frazier, Zachary; Tjong, Harianto; Xu, Min; Zhang, Shihua; Alber, Frank

2013-01-01

To increase our current understanding of cellular processes, such as cell signaling and division, knowledge is needed about the spatial and temporal organization of the proteome at different organizational levels. These levels cover a wide range of length and time scales: from the atomic structures of macromolecules for inferring their molecular function, to the quantitative description of their abundance, and distribution in the cell. Emerging new experimental technologies are greatly increasing the availability of such spatial information on the molecular organization in living cells. This review addresses three fields that have significantly contributed to our understanding of the proteome’s spatial and temporal organization: first, methods for the structure determination of individual macromolecular assemblies, specifically the fitting of atomic structures into density maps generated from electron microscopy techniques; second, research that visualizes the spatial distributions of these complexes within the cellular context using cryo electron tomography techniques combined with computational image processing; and third, methods for the spatial modeling of the dynamic organization of the proteome, specifically those methods for simulating reaction and diffusion of proteins and complexes in crowded intracellular fluids. The long-term goal is to integrate the varied data about a proteome’s organization into a spatially explicit, predictive model of cellular processes. PMID:21094684

Trading Speed and Accuracy by Coding Time: A Coupled-circuit Cortical Model

PubMed Central

Standage, Dominic; You, Hongzhi; Wang, Da-Hui; Dorris, Michael C.

2013-01-01

Our actions take place in space and time, but despite the role of time in decision theory and the growing acknowledgement that the encoding of time is crucial to behaviour, few studies have considered the interactions between neural codes for objects in space and for elapsed time during perceptual decisions. The speed-accuracy trade-off (SAT) provides a window into spatiotemporal interactions. Our hypothesis is that temporal coding determines the rate at which spatial evidence is integrated, controlling the SAT by gain modulation. Here, we propose that local cortical circuits are inherently suited to the relevant spatial and temporal coding. In simulations of an interval estimation task, we use a generic local-circuit model to encode time by ‘climbing’ activity, seen in cortex during tasks with a timing requirement. The model is a network of simulated pyramidal cells and inhibitory interneurons, connected by conductance synapses. A simple learning rule enables the network to quickly produce new interval estimates, which show signature characteristics of estimates by experimental subjects. Analysis of network dynamics formally characterizes this generic, local-circuit timing mechanism. In simulations of a perceptual decision task, we couple two such networks. Network function is determined only by spatial selectivity and NMDA receptor conductance strength; all other parameters are identical. To trade speed and accuracy, the timing network simply learns longer or shorter intervals, driving the rate of downstream decision processing by spatially non-selective input, an established form of gain modulation. Like the timing network's interval estimates, decision times show signature characteristics of those by experimental subjects. Overall, we propose, demonstrate and analyse a generic mechanism for timing, a generic mechanism for modulation of decision processing by temporal codes, and we make predictions for experimental verification. PMID:23592967

Interstitial diffusion and the relationship between compartment modelling and multi-scale spatial-temporal modelling of (18)F-FLT tumour uptake dynamics.

PubMed

Liu, Dan; Chalkidou, Anastasia; Landau, David B; Marsden, Paul K; Fenwick, John D

2014-09-07

Tumour cell proliferation can be imaged via positron emission tomography of the radiotracer 3'-deoxy-3'-18F-fluorothymidine (18F-FLT). Conceptually, the number of proliferating cells might be expected to correlate more closely with the kinetics of 18F-FLT uptake than with uptake at a fixed time. Radiotracer uptake kinetics are standardly visualized using parametric maps of compartment model fits to time-activity-curves (TACs) of individual voxels. However the relationship between the underlying spatiotemporal accumulation of FLT and the kinetics described by compartment models has not yet been explored. In this work tumour tracer uptake is simulated using a mechanistic spatial-temporal model based on a convection-diffusion-reaction equation solved via the finite difference method. The model describes a chain of processes: the flow of FLT between the spatially heterogeneous tumour vasculature and interstitium; diffusion and convection of FLT within the interstitium; transport of FLT into cells; and intracellular phosphorylation. Using values of model parameters estimated from the biological literature, simulated FLT TACs are generated with shapes and magnitudes similar to those seen clinically. Results show that the kinetics of the spatial-temporal model can be recovered accurately by fitting a 3-tissue compartment model to FLT TACs simulated for those tumours or tumour sub-volumes that can be viewed as approximately closed, for which tracer diffusion throughout the interstitium makes only a small fractional change to the quantity of FLT they contain. For a single PET voxel of width 2.5-5 mm we show that this condition is roughly equivalent to requiring that the relative difference in tracer uptake between the voxel and its neighbours is much less than one.

Two modes of the silk road pattern and their interannual variability simulated by LASG/IAP AGCM SAMIL2.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Fengfei; Zhou, Tianjun; Wang, Lu

2013-05-01

In this study, two modes of the Silk Road pattern were investigated using NCEP2 reanalysis data and the simulation produced by Spectral Atmospheric Circulation Model of IAP LASG, Version 2 (SAMIL2.0) that was forced by SST observation data. The horizontal distribution of both modes were reasonably reproduced by the simulation, with a pattern correlation coefficient of 0.63 for the first mode and 0.62 for the second mode. The wave train was maintained by barotropic energy conversion (denoted as CK) and baroclinic energy conversion (denoted as CP) from the mean flow. The distribution of CK was dominated by its meridional component (CK y ) in both modes. When integrated spatially, CK y was more efficient than its zonal component (CK x ) in the first mode but less in the second mode. The distribution and efficiency of CK were not captured well by SAMIL2.0. However, the model performed reasonably well at reproducing the distribution and efficiency of CP in both modes. Because CP is more efficient than CK, the spatial patterns of the Silk Road pattern were well reproduced. Interestingly, the temporal phase of the second mode was well captured by a single-member simulation. However, further analysis of other ensemble runs demonstrated that the successful reproduction of the temporal phase was a result of internal variability rather than a signal of SST forcing. The analysis shows that the observed temporal variations of both CP and CK were poorly reproduced, leading to the low accuracy of the temporal phase of the Silk Road pattern in the simulation.

Spatio-temporal reconstruction of brain dynamics from EEG with a Markov prior.

PubMed

Hansen, Sofie Therese; Hansen, Lars Kai

2017-03-01

Electroencephalography (EEG) can capture brain dynamics in high temporal resolution. By projecting the scalp EEG signal back to its origin in the brain also high spatial resolution can be achieved. Source localized EEG therefore has potential to be a very powerful tool for understanding the functional dynamics of the brain. Solving the inverse problem of EEG is however highly ill-posed as there are many more potential locations of the EEG generators than EEG measurement points. Several well-known properties of brain dynamics can be exploited to alleviate this problem. More short ranging connections exist in the brain than long ranging, arguing for spatially focal sources. Additionally, recent work (Delorme et al., 2012) argues that EEG can be decomposed into components having sparse source distributions. On the temporal side both short and long term stationarity of brain activation are seen. We summarize these insights in an inverse solver, the so-called "Variational Garrote" (Kappen and Gómez, 2013). Using a Markov prior we can incorporate flexible degrees of temporal stationarity. Through spatial basis functions spatially smooth distributions are obtained. Sparsity of these are inherent to the Variational Garrote solver. We name our method the MarkoVG and demonstrate its ability to adapt to the temporal smoothness and spatial sparsity in simulated EEG data. Finally a benchmark EEG dataset is used to demonstrate MarkoVG's ability to recover non-stationary brain dynamics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulating historical variability in the amount of old forests in the Oregon Coast Range.

Treesearch

M.C. Wimberly; T.M. Spies; C.J. Long; C. Whitlock

2000-01-01

We developed the landscape age-class demographics simulator (LADS) to model historical variability in the amount of old-growth and late-successional forest in the Oregon Coast Range over the past 3,000 years. The model simulated temporal and spatial patterns of forest fires along with the resulting fluctuations in the distribution of forest age classes across the...

Adding Spatially Correlated Noise to a Median Ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, J. M.; Egert, A. R.; Dao, E. V.; Colman, J. J.; Parris, R. T.

2017-12-01

We describe a process for adding spatially correlated noise to a background ionospheric model, in this case the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). Monthly median models do a good job describing bulk features of the ionosphere in a median sense. It is well known that the ionosphere almost never actually looks like its median. For the purposes of constructing an Operational System Simulation Experiment, it may be desirable to construct an ionosphere more similar to a particular instant, hour, or day than to the monthly median. We will examine selected data from the Global Ionosphere Radio Observatory (GIRO) database and estimate the amount of variance captured by the IRI model. We will then examine spatial and temporal correlations within the residuals. This analysis will be used to construct a temporal-spatial gridded ionosphere that represents a particular instantiation of those statistics.

Water quality modeling in the dead end sections of drinking water (Supplement)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Dead-end sections of drinking water distribution networks are known to be problematic zones in terms of water quality degradation. Extended residence time due to water stagnation leads to rapid reduction of disinfectant residuals allowing the regrowth of microbial pathogens. Water quality models developed so far apply spatial aggregation and temporal averaging techniques for hydraulic parameters by assigning hourly averaged water demands to the main nodes of the network. Although this practice has generally resulted in minimal loss of accuracy for the predicted disinfectant concentrations in main water transmission lines, this is not the case for the peripheries of the distribution network. This study proposes a new approach for simulating disinfectant residuals in dead end pipes while accounting for both spatial and temporal variability in hydraulic and transport parameters. A stochastic demand generator was developed to represent residential water pulses based on a non-homogenous Poisson process. Dispersive solute transport was considered using highly dynamic dispersion rates. A genetic algorithm was used tocalibrate the axial hydraulic profile of the dead-end pipe based on the different demand shares of the withdrawal nodes. A parametric sensitivity analysis was done to assess the model performance under variation of different simulation parameters. A group of Monte-Carlo ensembles was carried out to investigate the influence of spatial and temporal variation

Water Quality Modeling in the Dead End Sections of Drinking ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Dead-end sections of drinking water distribution networks are known to be problematic zones in terms of water quality degradation. Extended residence time due to water stagnation leads to rapid reduction of disinfectant residuals allowing the regrowth of microbial pathogens. Water quality models developed so far apply spatial aggregation and temporal averaging techniques for hydraulic parameters by assigning hourly averaged water demands to the main nodes of the network. Although this practice has generally resulted in minimal loss of accuracy for the predicted disinfectant concentrations in main water transmission lines, this is not the case for the peripheries of a distribution network. This study proposes a new approach for simulating disinfectant residuals in dead end pipes while accounting for both spatial and temporal variability in hydraulic and transport parameters. A stochastic demand generator was developed to represent residential water pulses based on a non-homogenous Poisson process. Dispersive solute transport was considered using highly dynamic dispersion rates. A genetic algorithm was used to calibrate the axial hydraulic profile of the dead-end pipe based on the different demand shares of the withdrawal nodes. A parametric sensitivity analysis was done to assess the model performance under variation of different simulation parameters. A group of Monte-Carlo ensembles was carried out to investigate the influence of spatial and temporal variations

Increasingly, Data Availability Limits Model Predictive Capacity: the Western Lake Erie Basin, a Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrman, K. D.; Johnson, M. V. V.; Atwood, J. D.; Norfleet, M. L.

2016-12-01

Recent algal blooms in Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) have renewed scientific community's interest in developing process based models to better understand and predict the drivers of eutrophic conditions in the lake. At the same time, in order to prevent future blooms, farmers, local communities and policy makers are interested in developing spatially explicit nutrient and sediment management plans at various scales, from field to watershed. These interests have fueled several modeling exercises intended to locate "hotspots" in the basin where targeted adoption of additional agricultural conservation practices could provide the most benefit to water quality. The models have also been used to simulate various scenarios representing potential agricultural solutions. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and its sister model, the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX), have been used to simulate hydrology of interacting land uses in thousands of scientific studies around the world. High performance computing allows SWAT and APEX users to continue to improve and refine the model specificity to make predictions at small-spatial scales. Consequently, data inputs and calibration/validation data are now becoming the limiting factor to model performance. Water quality data for the tributaries and rivers that flow through WLEB is spatially and temporally limited. Land management data, including conservation practice and nutrient management data, are not publicly available at fine spatial and temporal scales. Here we show the data uncertainties associated with modeling WLEB croplands at a relatively large spatial scale (HUC-4) using site management data from over 1,000 farms collected by the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP). The error associated with downscaling this data to the HUC-8 and HUC-12 scale is shown. Simulations of spatially explicit dynamics can be very informative, but care must be taken when policy decisions are made based on models with unstated, but implicit assumptions. As we interpret modeling results, we must communicate the spatial and temporal scale for which the model was developed and at which the data is valid. When there is little to no data to enable appropriate validation and calibration, the results must be interpreted with appropriate skepticism.

Temporal and spatial intermittencies within Newtonian turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushwaha, Anubhav; Graham, Michael

2015-11-01

Direct numerical simulations of a pressure driven turbulent flow are performed in a large rectangular channel. Intermittent high- and low-drag regimes within turbulence that have earlier been found to exist temporally in minimal channels have been observed both spatially and temporally in full-size turbulent flows. These intermittent regimes, namely, ''active'' and ''hibernating'' turbulence, display very different structural and statistical features. We adopt a very simple sampling technique to identify these intermittent intervals, both temporally and spatially, and present differences between them in terms of simple quantities like mean-velocity, wall-shear stress and flow structures. By conditionally sampling of the low wall-shear stress events in particular, we show that the Maximum Drag Reduction (MDR) velocity profile, that occurs in viscoelastic flows, can also be approached in a Newtonian-fluid flow in the absence of any additives. This suggests that the properties of polymer drag reduction are inherent to all flows and their occurrence is just enhanced by the addition of polymers. We also show how the intermittencies within turbulence vary with Reynolds number. The work was supported by AFOSR grant FA9550-15-1-0062.

Classification and simulation of stereoscopic artifacts in mobile 3DTV content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boev, Atanas; Hollosi, Danilo; Gotchev, Atanas; Egiazarian, Karen

2009-02-01

We identify, categorize and simulate artifacts which might occur during delivery stereoscopic video to mobile devices. We consider the stages of 3D video delivery dataflow: content creation, conversion to the desired format (multiview or source-plus-depth), coding/decoding, transmission, and visualization on 3D display. Human 3D vision works by assessing various depth cues - accommodation, binocular depth cues, pictorial cues and motion parallax. As a consequence any artifact which modifies these cues impairs the quality of a 3D scene. The perceptibility of each artifact can be estimated through subjective tests. The material for such tests needs to contain various artifacts with different amounts of impairment. We present a system for simulation of these artifacts. The artifacts are organized in groups with similar origins, and each group is simulated by a block in a simulation channel. The channel introduces the following groups of artifacts: sensor limitations, geometric distortions caused by camera optics, spatial and temporal misalignments between video channels, spatial and temporal artifacts caused by coding, transmission losses, and visualization artifacts. For the case of source-plus-depth representation, artifacts caused by format conversion are added as well.

Unbiased Rare Event Sampling in Spatial Stochastic Systems Biology Models Using a Weighted Ensemble of Trajectories

PubMed Central

Donovan, Rory M.; Tapia, Jose-Juan; Sullivan, Devin P.; Faeder, James R.; Murphy, Robert F.; Dittrich, Markus; Zuckerman, Daniel M.

2016-01-01

The long-term goal of connecting scales in biological simulation can be facilitated by scale-agnostic methods. We demonstrate that the weighted ensemble (WE) strategy, initially developed for molecular simulations, applies effectively to spatially resolved cell-scale simulations. The WE approach runs an ensemble of parallel trajectories with assigned weights and uses a statistical resampling strategy of replicating and pruning trajectories to focus computational effort on difficult-to-sample regions. The method can also generate unbiased estimates of non-equilibrium and equilibrium observables, sometimes with significantly less aggregate computing time than would be possible using standard parallelization. Here, we use WE to orchestrate particle-based kinetic Monte Carlo simulations, which include spatial geometry (e.g., of organelles, plasma membrane) and biochemical interactions among mobile molecular species. We study a series of models exhibiting spatial, temporal and biochemical complexity and show that although WE has important limitations, it can achieve performance significantly exceeding standard parallel simulation—by orders of magnitude for some observables. PMID:26845334

Spatiotemporal reconstruction of list-mode PET data.

PubMed

Nichols, Thomas E; Qi, Jinyi; Asma, Evren; Leahy, Richard M

2002-04-01

We describe a method for computing a continuous time estimate of tracer density using list-mode positron emission tomography data. The rate function in each voxel is modeled as an inhomogeneous Poisson process whose rate function can be represented using a cubic B-spline basis. The rate functions are estimated by maximizing the likelihood of the arrival times of detected photon pairs over the control vertices of the spline, modified by quadratic spatial and temporal smoothness penalties and a penalty term to enforce nonnegativity. Randoms rate functions are estimated by assuming independence between the spatial and temporal randoms distributions. Similarly, scatter rate functions are estimated by assuming spatiotemporal independence and that the temporal distribution of the scatter is proportional to the temporal distribution of the trues. A quantitative evaluation was performed using simulated data and the method is also demonstrated in a human study using 11C-raclopride.

Temporal and spatial influences incur reconfiguration of Arctic heathland soil bacterial community structure.

PubMed

Hill, Richard; Saetnan, Eli R; Scullion, John; Gwynn-Jones, Dylan; Ostle, Nick; Edwards, Arwyn

2016-06-01

Microbial responses to Arctic climate change could radically alter the stability of major stores of soil carbon. However, the sensitivity of plot-scale experiments simulating climate change effects on Arctic heathland soils to potential confounding effects of spatial and temporal changes in soil microbial communities is unknown. Here, the variation in heathland soil bacterial communities at two survey sites in Sweden between spring and summer 2013 and at scales between 0-1 m and, 1-100 m and between sites (> 100 m) were investigated in parallel using 16S rRNA gene T-RFLP and amplicon sequencing. T-RFLP did not reveal spatial structuring of communities at scales < 100 m in any site or season. However, temporal changes were striking. Amplicon sequencing corroborated shifts from r- to K-selected taxon-dominated communities, influencing in silico predictions of functional potential. Network analyses reveal temporal keystone taxa, with a spring betaproteobacterial sub-network centred upon a Burkholderia operational taxonomic unit (OTU) and a reconfiguration to a summer sub-network centred upon an alphaproteobacterial OTU. Although spatial structuring effects may not confound comparison between plot-scale treatments, temporal change is a significant influence. Moreover, the prominence of two temporally exclusive keystone taxa suggests that the stability of Arctic heathland soil bacterial communities could be disproportionally influenced by seasonal perturbations affecting individual taxa. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation of a numerical model's ability to predict bed load transport observed in braided river experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javernick, Luke; Redolfi, Marco; Bertoldi, Walter

2018-05-01

New data collection techniques offer numerical modelers the ability to gather and utilize high quality data sets with high spatial and temporal resolution. Such data sets are currently needed for calibration, verification, and to fuel future model development, particularly morphological simulations. This study explores the use of high quality spatial and temporal data sets of observed bed load transport in braided river flume experiments to evaluate the ability of a two-dimensional model, Delft3D, to predict bed load transport. This study uses a fixed bed model configuration and examines the model's shear stress calculations, which are the foundation to predict the sediment fluxes necessary for morphological simulations. The evaluation is conducted for three flow rates, and model setup used highly accurate Structure-from-Motion (SfM) topography and discharge boundary conditions. The model was hydraulically calibrated using bed roughness, and performance was evaluated based on depth and inundation agreement. Model bed load performance was evaluated in terms of critical shear stress exceedance area compared to maps of observed bed mobility in a flume. Following the standard hydraulic calibration, bed load performance was tested for sensitivity to horizontal eddy viscosity parameterization and bed morphology updating. Simulations produced depth errors equal to the SfM inherent errors, inundation agreement of 77-85%, and critical shear stress exceedance in agreement with 49-68% of the observed active area. This study provides insight into the ability of physically based, two-dimensional simulations to accurately predict bed load as well as the effects of horizontal eddy viscosity and bed updating. Further, this study highlights how using high spatial and temporal data to capture the physical processes at work during flume experiments can help to improve morphological modeling.

Modelling and simulation techniques for membrane biology.

PubMed

Burrage, Kevin; Hancock, John; Leier, André; Nicolau, Dan V

2007-07-01

One of the most important aspects of Computational Cell Biology is the understanding of the complicated dynamical processes that take place on plasma membranes. These processes are often so complicated that purely temporal models cannot always adequately capture the dynamics. On the other hand, spatial models can have large computational overheads. In this article, we review some of these issues with respect to chemistry, membrane microdomains and anomalous diffusion and discuss how to select appropriate modelling and simulation paradigms based on some or all the following aspects: discrete, continuous, stochastic, delayed and complex spatial processes.

EVALUATING HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE TO ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits or consequences. Planning and assessment in land and water resource management are evolving toward complex, spatially explicit regional assessments. These problems have to be addressed with distributed models that can compute runoff and erosion at different spatial and temporal scales. The extensive data requirements and the difficult task of building input parameter files, however, have long been an obstacle to the timely and cost-effective use of such complex models by resource managers. The U.S. EPA Landscape Ecology Branch in collaboration with the USDA-ARS Southwest Watershed Research Center has developed a geographic information system (GIS) tool to facilitate this process. A GIS provides the framework within which spatially distributed data are collected and used to prepare model input files, and model results are evaluated. The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool uses widely available standardized spatial datasets that can be obtained via the internet at no cost to the user. The data are used to develop input parameter files for KINEROS2 and SWAT, two watershed runoff and erosion simulation models that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. AGWA automates the process of transforming digital data into simulation model results and provides a visualization tool

Modeling the Influence of Dynamic Zoning of Forest Harvesting on Ecological Succession in a Northern Hardwoods Landscape

Treesearch

Patrick A. Zollner; Eric J. Gustafson; Hong S. He; Volker C. Radeloff; David J. Mladenoff

2005-01-01

Dynamic zoning (systematic alteration in the spatial and temporal allocation of even-aged forest management practices) has been proposed as a means to change the spatial pattern of timber harvest across a landscape to maximize forest interior habitat while holding timber harvest levels constant. Simulation studies have established that dynamic zoning strategies...

LANDIS 4.0 users guide. LANDIS: a spatially explicit model of forest landscape disturbance, management, and succession

Treesearch

Hong S. He; Wei Li; Brian R. Sturtevant; Jian Yang; Bo Z. Shang; Eric J. Gustafson; David J. Mladenoff

2005-01-01

LANDIS 4.0 is new-generation software that simulates forest landscape change over large spatial and temporal scales. It is used to explore how disturbances, succession, and management interact to determine forest composition and pattern. Also describes software architecture, model assumptions and provides detailed instructions on the use of the model.

Synergetic use of Sentinel-1 and 2 to improve agro-hydrological modeling. Results of groundwater pumping estimates in south-India and nitrogen excess in south-west of France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrant, S.; Le Page, M.; Kerr, Y. H.; Selles, A.; Mermoz, S.; Al-Bitar, A.; Muddu, S.; Gascoin, S.; Marechal, J. C.; Durand, P.; Salmon-Monviola, J.; Ceschia, E.; Bustillo, V.

2016-12-01

Nitrogen transfers at agricultural catchment level are intricately linked to water transfers. Agro-hydrological modeling approaches aim at integrating spatial heterogeneity of catchment physical properties together with agricultural practices to spatially estimate the water and nitrogen cycles. As in hydrology, the calibration schemes are designed to optimize the performance of the temporal dynamics and biases in model simulations, while ignoring the simulated spatial pattern. Yet, crop uses, i.e. transpiration and nitrogen exported by harvest, are the main fluxes at the catchment scale, highly variable in space and time. Geo-information time-series of vegetation and water index with multi-spectral optical detection S2 together with surface roughness time series with C-band radar detection S1 are used to reset soil water holding capacity parameters (depth, porosity) and agricultural practices (sowing date, irrigated area extent) of a crop model coupled with a hydrological model. This study takes two agro-hydrological contexts as demonstrators: 1-spatial nitrogen excess estimation in south-west of France, and 2-groundwater extraction for rice irrigation in south-India. Spatio-temporal patterns are involved in respectively surface water contamination due to over-fertilization and local groundwater shortages due to over-pumping for above rice inundation. Optimized Leaf Area Index profiles are simulated at the satellite images pixel level using an agro-hydrological model to reproduce spatial and temporal crop growth dynamics in south-west of France, improving the in-stream nitrogen fluxes by 12%. Accurate detection of irrigated area extents are obtained with the thresholding method based on optical indices, with a kappa of 0.81 for the dry season 2016. The actual monsoon season is monitored and will be presented. These extents drive the groundwater pumping and are highly variable in time (from 2 to 8% of the total area).

Newly Discovered Hydrothermal Plumes Along the Furious Fifties, South East Indian Ridge (SEIR; 128°E-140°E)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boulart, C.; Chavagnac, V.; Briais, A.; Revillon, S.; Donval, J. P.; Guyader, V.

2015-12-01

We report on the first evidence for hydrothermal activity along the intermediate-spreading South-East Indian Ridge (SEIR) between Australia and Antarctica (128°E-140°E), discovered during the STORM cruise of R/V L'Atalante. This section of the SEIR is located east of the low-magma Australian-Antarctic Discordance (AAD), where the ridge has the morphology of a slow-spreading mid-ocean ridge despite its intermediate spreading rate of 75 mm/yr. The axial depth decreases eastward, reflecting an eastward increase in magma budget.Using in-situ geochemical tracers based on optical backscatter, temperature, redox potential sensor and in situ mass spectrometer (ISMS) anomalies, we establish the existence of several distinct hydrothermal plumes within the water column along the 500 nautical miles ridge section. At one site, the combination of near-bottom temperature anomalies of 0.1°C together with strong dissolved methane and dissolved carbon dioxide anomalies revealed by the ISMS provides the precise location of an active vent in the Deep Southern Indian Ocean off Tasmania. Hydrothermal venting along the 128°E-140°E section of the SEIR appears to be significant, an observation consistent with the global link between spreading rate and plume occurrence (Baker and German, 2004). Moreover, the plume incidence increases westward and, in the eastern part, hydrothermal venting seems to be less significant, suggesting a possible influence of the high magma budget, as observed in mid-ocean ridge sections affected by hotspots. Future investigation will focus on the direct identification of venting sources and the study of hydrothermal circulation within the specific settings of the AAD. The observation of new venting sites at the frontier between Pacific and Indian Oceans may also provide new insights on the biogeography (diversity and distribution) of hydrothermal fauna. Baker, E. T., and C. R. German (2004), On the global distribution of hydrothermal vent fields, in Mid-Ocean Ridges: Hydrothermal Interactions

Lattice-level measurement of material strength with LCLS during ultrafast dynamic compression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milathianaki, Despina; Boutet, Sebastien; Ratner, Daniel; White, William; Williams, Garth; Gleason, Arianna; Swift, Damian; Higginbotham, Andrew; Wark, Justin

2013-10-01

An in-depth understanding of the stress-strain behavior of materials during ultrafast dynamic compression requires experiments that offer in-situ observation of the lattice at the pertinent temporal and spatial scales. To date, the lattice response under extreme strain-rate conditions (>108 s-1) has been inferred predominantly from continuum-level measurements and multi-million atom molecular dynamics simulations. Several time-resolved x-ray diffraction experiments have captured important information on plasticity kinetics, while limited to nanosecond timescales due to the lack of high brilliance ultrafast x-ray sources. Here we present experiments at LCLS combining ultrafast laser-shocks and serial femtosecond x-ray diffraction. The high spectral brightness (~1012 photons per pulse, ΔE/E = 0.2%) and subpicosecond temporal resolution (<100 fs pulsewidth) of the LCLS x-ray free electron laser allow investigations that link simulations and experiments at the fundamental temporal and spatial scales for the first time. We present movies of the lattice undergoing rapid shock-compression, composed by a series of single femtosecond x-ray snapshots, demonstrating the transient behavior while successfully decoupling the elastic and plastic response in polycrystalline Cu.

Continuous rainfall simulation for regional flood risk assessment - application in the Austrian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, Jose Luis; Nester, Thomas; Komma, Jürgen; Blöschl, Günter

2017-04-01

Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations. The correct reproduction of the observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional intensity-duration-frequency curves, is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and frequency of the flood peaks. Furthermore, the replication of the observed rainfall spatial and temporal correlations allows to model important other hydrological features like antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events. In this work, we present an application in the Tirol region (Austrian alps) of a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is modeled on a station basis as a mutivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space, and then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space. For the sake of simplicity, the parameters of the Gamma distributions are assumed to vary monthly according to a sinusoidal function, and are calibrated trying to simultaneously reproduce i) mean annual rainfall, ii) mean daily rainfall amounts, iii) standard deviations of daily rainfall amounts, and iv) 24-hours intensity duration frequency curve. The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is performed in a way that the intensity-duration-frequency curves aggregated at different spatial and temporal scales reproduce the measured ones. Bardossy, A., and E. J. Plate (1992), Space-time model for daily rainfall using atmospheric circulation patterns, Water Resour. Res., 28(5), 1247-1259, doi:10.1029/91WR02589.

Performance of a two-leaf light use efficiency model for mapping gross primary productivity against remotely sensed sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence data.

PubMed

Zan, Mei; Zhou, Yanlian; Ju, Weimin; Zhang, Yongguang; Zhang, Leiming; Liu, Yibo

2018-02-01

Estimating terrestrial gross primary production is an important task when studying the carbon cycle. In this study, the ability of a two-leaf light use efficiency model to simulate regional gross primary production in China was validated using satellite Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument - 2 sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence data. The two-leaf light use efficiency model was used to estimate daily gross primary production in China's terrestrial ecosystems with 500-m resolution for the period from 2007 to 2014. Gross primary production simulated with the two-leaf light use efficiency model was resampled to a spatial resolution of 0.5° and then compared with sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence. During the study period, sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and gross primary production simulated by the two-leaf light use efficiency model exhibited similar spatial and temporal patterns in China. The correlation coefficient between sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and monthly gross primary production simulated by the two-leaf light use efficiency model was significant (p<0.05, n=96) in 88.9% of vegetated areas in China (average value 0.78) and varied among vegetation types. The interannual variations in monthly sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and gross primary production simulated by the two-leaf light use efficiency model were similar in spring and autumn in most vegetated regions, but dissimilar in winter and summer. The spatial variability of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and gross primary production simulated by the two-leaf light use efficiency model was similar in spring, summer, and autumn. The proportion of spatial variations of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and annual gross primary production simulated by the two-leaf light use efficiency model explained by ranged from 0.76 (2011) to 0.80 (2013) during the study period. Overall, the two-leaf light use efficiency model was capable of capturing spatial and temporal variations in gross primary production in China. However, the model needs further improvement to better simulate gross primary production in summer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Challenges of forest landscape modeling - simulating large landscapes and validating results

Treesearch

Hong S. He; Jian Yang; Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson

2011-01-01

Over the last 20 years, we have seen a rapid development in the field of forest landscape modeling, fueled by both technological and theoretical advances. Two fundamental challenges have persisted since the inception of FLMs: (1) balancing realistic simulation of ecological processes at broad spatial and temporal scales with computing capacity, and (2) validating...

Evaluating crown fire rate of spread predictions from physics-based models

Treesearch

C. M. Hoffman; J. Ziegler; J. Canfield; R. R. Linn; W. Mell; C. H. Sieg; F. Pimont

2015-01-01

Modeling the behavior of crown fires is challenging due to the complex set of coupled processes that drive the characteristics of a spreading wildfire and the large range of spatial and temporal scales over which these processes occur. Detailed physics-based modeling approaches such as FIRETEC and the Wildland Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) simulate...

Simulated sensitivity of seasonal ozone exposure in the Great Lakes region to changes in anthropogenic emissions in the presence of interannual variability

Treesearch

Jerome D. Fast; Warren E. Heilman

2005-01-01

A coupled meteorological and chemical modeling system with a 12-km horizontal grid spacing was used to simulate the evolution of ozone over the Great Lakes region between May and September of 1999 and 2001. The overall temporal and spatial variations in hourly ozone concentrations and ozone exposure from control simulations agreed reasonably well with the observations...

Verification assessment of piston boundary conditions for Lagrangian simulation of compressible flow similarity solutions

DOE PAGES

Ramsey, Scott D.; Ivancic, Philip R.; Lilieholm, Jennifer F.

2015-12-10

This work is concerned with the use of similarity solutions of the compressible flow equations as benchmarks or verification test problems for finite-volume compressible flow simulation software. In practice, this effort can be complicated by the infinite spatial/temporal extent of many candidate solutions or “test problems.” Methods can be devised with the intention of ameliorating this inconsistency with the finite nature of computational simulation; the exact strategy will depend on the code and problem archetypes under investigation. For example, self-similar shock wave propagation can be represented in Lagrangian compressible flow simulations as rigid boundary-driven flow, even if no such “piston”more » is present in the counterpart mathematical similarity solution. The purpose of this work is to investigate in detail the methodology of representing self-similar shock wave propagation as a piston-driven flow in the context of various test problems featuring simple closed-form solutions of infinite spatial/temporal extent. The closed-form solutions allow for the derivation of similarly closed-form piston boundary conditions (BCs) for use in Lagrangian compressible flow solvers. Finally, the consequences of utilizing these BCs (as opposed to directly initializing the self-similar solution in a computational spatial grid) are investigated in terms of common code verification analysis metrics (e.g., shock strength/position errors and global convergence rates).« less

Verification assessment of piston boundary conditions for Lagrangian simulation of compressible flow similarity solutions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramsey, Scott D.; Ivancic, Philip R.; Lilieholm, Jennifer F.

This work is concerned with the use of similarity solutions of the compressible flow equations as benchmarks or verification test problems for finite-volume compressible flow simulation software. In practice, this effort can be complicated by the infinite spatial/temporal extent of many candidate solutions or “test problems.” Methods can be devised with the intention of ameliorating this inconsistency with the finite nature of computational simulation; the exact strategy will depend on the code and problem archetypes under investigation. For example, self-similar shock wave propagation can be represented in Lagrangian compressible flow simulations as rigid boundary-driven flow, even if no such “piston”more » is present in the counterpart mathematical similarity solution. The purpose of this work is to investigate in detail the methodology of representing self-similar shock wave propagation as a piston-driven flow in the context of various test problems featuring simple closed-form solutions of infinite spatial/temporal extent. The closed-form solutions allow for the derivation of similarly closed-form piston boundary conditions (BCs) for use in Lagrangian compressible flow solvers. Finally, the consequences of utilizing these BCs (as opposed to directly initializing the self-similar solution in a computational spatial grid) are investigated in terms of common code verification analysis metrics (e.g., shock strength/position errors and global convergence rates).« less

WILDFIRE EMISSION MODELING: INTEGRATING BLUESKY AND SMOKE

EPA Science Inventory

Atmospheric chemical transport models are used to simulate historic meteorological episodes for developing air quality management strategies. Wildland fire emissions need to be characterized accurately to achieve these air quality management goals. The temporal and spatial esti...

Pattern classification of fMRI data: applications for analysis of spatially distributed cortical networks.

PubMed

Yourganov, Grigori; Schmah, Tanya; Churchill, Nathan W; Berman, Marc G; Grady, Cheryl L; Strother, Stephen C

2014-08-01

The field of fMRI data analysis is rapidly growing in sophistication, particularly in the domain of multivariate pattern classification. However, the interaction between the properties of the analytical model and the parameters of the BOLD signal (e.g. signal magnitude, temporal variance and functional connectivity) is still an open problem. We addressed this problem by evaluating a set of pattern classification algorithms on simulated and experimental block-design fMRI data. The set of classifiers consisted of linear and quadratic discriminants, linear support vector machine, and linear and nonlinear Gaussian naive Bayes classifiers. For linear discriminant, we used two methods of regularization: principal component analysis, and ridge regularization. The classifiers were used (1) to classify the volumes according to the behavioral task that was performed by the subject, and (2) to construct spatial maps that indicated the relative contribution of each voxel to classification. Our evaluation metrics were: (1) accuracy of out-of-sample classification and (2) reproducibility of spatial maps. In simulated data sets, we performed an additional evaluation of spatial maps with ROC analysis. We varied the magnitude, temporal variance and connectivity of simulated fMRI signal and identified the optimal classifier for each simulated environment. Overall, the best performers were linear and quadratic discriminants (operating on principal components of the data matrix) and, in some rare situations, a nonlinear Gaussian naïve Bayes classifier. The results from the simulated data were supported by within-subject analysis of experimental fMRI data, collected in a study of aging. This is the first study that systematically characterizes interactions between analysis model and signal parameters (such as magnitude, variance and correlation) on the performance of pattern classifiers for fMRI. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulating Future Changes in Spatio-temporal Precipitation by Identifying and Characterizing Individual Rainstorm Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, W.; Stein, M.; Wang, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Moyer, E. J.

2015-12-01

A growing body of literature suggests that human-induced climate change may cause significant changes in precipitation patterns, which could in turn influence future flood levels and frequencies and water supply and management practices. Although climate models produce full three-dimensional simulations of precipitation, analyses of model precipitation have focused either on time-averaged distributions or on individual timeseries with no spatial information. We describe here a new approach based on identifying and characterizing individual rainstorms in either data or model output. Our approach enables us to readily characterize important spatio-temporal aspects of rainstorms including initiation location, intensity (mean and patterns), spatial extent, duration, and trajectory. We apply this technique to high-resolution precipitation over the continental U.S. both from radar-based observations (NCEP Stage IV QPE product, 1-hourly, 4 km spatial resolution) and from model runs with dynamical downscaling (WRF regional climate model, 3-hourly, 12 km spatial resolution). In the model studies we investigate the changes in storm characteristics under a business-as-usual warming scenario to 2100 (RCP 8.5). We find that in these model runs, rainstorm intensity increases as expected with rising temperatures (approximately 7%/K, following increased atmospheric moisture content), while total precipitation increases by a lesser amount (3%/K), consistent with other studies. We identify for the first time the necessary compensating mechanism: in these model runs, individual precipitation events become smaller. Other aspects are approximately unchanged in the warmer climate. Because these spatio-temporal changes in rainfall patterns would impact regional hydrology, it is important that they be accurately incorporated into any impacts assessment. For this purpose we have developed a methodology for producing scenarios of future precipitation that combine observational data and model-projected changes. We statistically describe the future changes in rainstorm characteristics suggested by the WRF model and apply those changes to observational data. The resulting high spatial and temporal resolution scenarios have immediate applications for impacts assessment and adaptation studies.

Modeling spatiotemporal covariance for magnetoencephalography or electroencephalography source analysis.

PubMed

Plis, Sergey M; George, J S; Jun, S C; Paré-Blagoev, J; Ranken, D M; Wood, C C; Schmidt, D M

2007-01-01

We propose a new model to approximate spatiotemporal noise covariance for use in neural electromagnetic source analysis, which better captures temporal variability in background activity. As with other existing formalisms, our model employs a Kronecker product of matrices representing temporal and spatial covariance. In our model, spatial components are allowed to have differing temporal covariances. Variability is represented as a series of Kronecker products of spatial component covariances and corresponding temporal covariances. Unlike previous attempts to model covariance through a sum of Kronecker products, our model is designed to have a computationally manageable inverse. Despite increased descriptive power, inversion of the model is fast, making it useful in source analysis. We have explored two versions of the model. One is estimated based on the assumption that spatial components of background noise have uncorrelated time courses. Another version, which gives closer approximation, is based on the assumption that time courses are statistically independent. The accuracy of the structural approximation is compared to an existing model, based on a single Kronecker product, using both Frobenius norm of the difference between spatiotemporal sample covariance and a model, and scatter plots. Performance of ours and previous models is compared in source analysis of a large number of single dipole problems with simulated time courses and with background from authentic magnetoencephalography data.

Sea-level rise impacts on the temporal and spatial variability of extreme water levels: A case study for St. Peter-Ording, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santamaria-Aguilar, S.; Arns, A.; Vafeidis, A. T.

2017-04-01

Both the temporal and spatial variability of storm surge water level (WL) curves are usually not taken into account in flood risk assessments as observational data are often scarce. In addition, sea-level rise (SLR) can further affect the variability of WLs. We analyze the temporal and spatial variability of the WL curve of 75 historical storm surge events that have been numerically simulated for St. Peter-Ording at the German North Sea coast, considering the effects induced by three SLR scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, and a RCP 8.5 high end scenario). We assess potential impacts of these scenarios on two parameters related to flooding: overflow volumes and fullness. Our results indicate that due to both the temporal and spatial variability of those events the resulting overflow volume can be two or even three times greater. We observe a steepening of the WL curve with an increase of the tidal range under the three SLR scenarios, although SLR induced effects are relatively higher for the RCP 4.5. The steepening of the WL curve with SLR produces a reduction of the fullness, but the changes in overflow volumes also depend on the magnitude of the storm surge event.

[Interdependence of plankton spatial distribution and plancton biomass temporal oscillations: mathematical simulation].

PubMed

Medvedinskiĭ, A B; Tikhonova, I A; Li, B L; Malchow, H

2003-01-01

The dynamics of aquatic biological communities in a patchy environment is of great interest in respect to interrelations between phenomena at various spatial and time scales. To study the complex plankton dynamics in relation to variations of such a biologically essential parameter as the fish predation rate, we use a simple reaction-diffusion model of trophic interactions between phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish. We suggest that plankton is distributed between two habitats one of which is fish-free due to hydrological inhomogeneity, while the other is fish-populated. We show that temporal variations in the fish predation rate do not violate the strong correspondence between the character of spatial distribution of plankton and changes of plankton biomass in time: regular temporal oscillations of plankton biomass correspond to large-scale plankton patches, while chaotic oscillations correspond to small-scale plankton patterns. As in the case of the constant fish predation rate, the chaotic plankton dynamics is characterized by coexistence of the chaotic attractor and limit cycle.

How spatial and temporal rainfall variability affect runoff across basin scales: insights from field observations in the (semi-)urbanised Charlotte watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ten Veldhuis, M. C.; Smith, J. A.; Zhou, Z.

2017-12-01

Impacts of rainfall variability on runoff response are highly scale-dependent. Sensitivity analyses based on hydrological model simulations have shown that impacts are likely to depend on combinations of storm type, basin versus storm scale, temporal versus spatial rainfall variability. So far, few of these conclusions have been confirmed on observational grounds, since high quality datasets of spatially variable rainfall and runoff over prolonged periods are rare. Here we investigate relationships between rainfall variability and runoff response based on 30 years of radar-rainfall datasets and flow measurements for 16 hydrological basins ranging from 7 to 111 km2. Basins vary not only in scale, but also in their degree of urbanisation. We investigated temporal and spatial variability characteristics of rainfall fields across a range of spatial and temporal scales to identify main drivers for variability in runoff response. We identified 3 ranges of basin size with different temporal versus spatial rainfall variability characteristics. Total rainfall volume proved to be the dominant agent determining runoff response at all basin scales, independent of their degree of urbanisation. Peak rainfall intensity and storm core volume are of secondary importance. This applies to all runoff parameters, including runoff volume, runoff peak, volume-to-peak and lag time. Position and movement of the storm with respect to the basin have a negligible influence on runoff response, with the exception of lag times in some of the larger basins. This highlights the importance of accuracy in rainfall estimation: getting the position right but the volume wrong will inevitably lead to large errors in runoff prediction. Our study helps to identify conditions where rainfall variability matters for correct estimation of the rainfall volume as well as the associated runoff response.

Food web dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, D.L.; Trexler, J.C.; Donalson, D.D.

2008-01-01

A spatially explicit model is developed to simulate the small fish community and its underlying food web, in the freshwater marshes of the Everglades. The community is simplified to a few small fish species feeding on periphyton and invertebrates. Other compartments are detritus, crayfish, and a piscivorous fish species. This unit food web model is applied to each of the 10,000 spatial cells on a 100 x 100 pixel landscape. Seasonal variation in water level is assumed and rules are assigned for fish movement in response to rising and falling water levels, which can cause many spatial cells to alternate between flooded and dry conditions. It is shown that temporal variations of water level on a spatially heterogeneous landscape can maintain at least three competing fish species. In addition, these environmental factors can strongly affect the temporal variation of the food web caused by top-down control from the piscivorous fish.

HTM Spatial Pooler With Memristor Crossbar Circuits for Sparse Biometric Recognition.

PubMed

James, Alex Pappachen; Fedorova, Irina; Ibrayev, Timur; Kudithipudi, Dhireesha

2017-06-01

Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) is an online machine learning algorithm that emulates the neo-cortex. The development of a scalable on-chip HTM architecture is an open research area. The two core substructures of HTM are spatial pooler and temporal memory. In this work, we propose a new Spatial Pooler circuit design with parallel memristive crossbar arrays for the 2D columns. The proposed design was validated on two different benchmark datasets, face recognition, and speech recognition. The circuits are simulated and analyzed using a practical memristor device model and 0.18 μm IBM CMOS technology model. The databases AR, YALE, ORL, and UFI, are used to test the performance of the design in face recognition. TIMIT dataset is used for the speech recognition.

Space evolution model and empirical analysis of an urban public transport network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sui, Yi; Shao, Feng-jing; Sun, Ren-cheng; Li, Shu-jing

2012-07-01

This study explores the space evolution of an urban public transport network, using empirical evidence and a simulation model validated on that data. Public transport patterns primarily depend on traffic spatial-distribution, demands of passengers and expected utility of investors. Evolution is an iterative process of satisfying the needs of passengers and investors based on a given traffic spatial-distribution. The temporal change of urban public transport network is evaluated both using topological measures and spatial ones. The simulation model is validated using empirical data from nine big cities in China. Statistical analyses on topological and spatial attributes suggest that an evolution network with traffic demands characterized by power-law numerical values which distribute in a mode of concentric circles tallies well with these nine cities.

Spatial and Temporal Stress Drop Variations of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, H.

2013-12-01

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake sequence consists of foreshocks, mainshock, aftershocks, and repeating earthquakes. To quantify spatial and temporal stress drop variations is important for understanding M9-class megathrust earthquakes. Variability and spatial and temporal pattern of stress drop is a basic information for rupture dynamics as well as useful to source modeling. As pointed in the ground motion prediction equations by Campbell and Bozorgnia [2008, Earthquake Spectra], mainshock-aftershock pairs often provide significant decrease of stress drop. We here focus strong motion records before and after the Tohoku earthquake, and analyze source spectral ratios considering azimuth- and distance dependency [Miyake et al., 2001, GRL]. Due to the limitation of station locations on land, spatial and temporal stress drop variations are estimated by adjusting shifts from the omega-squared source spectral model. The adjustment is based on the stochastic Green's function simulations of source spectra considering azimuth- and distance dependency. We assumed the same Green's functions for event pairs for each station, both the propagation path and site amplification effects are cancelled out. Precise studies of spatial and temporal stress drop variations have been performed [e.g., Allmann and Shearer, 2007, JGR], this study targets the relations between stress drop vs. progression of slow slip prior to the Tohoku earthquake by Kato et al. [2012, Science] and plate structures. Acknowledgement: This study is partly supported by ERI Joint Research (2013-B-05). We used the JMA unified earthquake catalogue and K-NET, KiK-net, and F-net data provided by NIED.

Void Growth and Coalescence Simulations

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-01

distortion and damage, minimum time step, and appropriate material model parameters. Further, a temporal and spatial convergence study was used to...estimate errors, thus, this study helps to provide guidelines for modeling of materials with voids. Finally, we use a Gurson model with Johnson-Cook...spatial convergence study was used to estimate errors, thus, this study helps to provide guidelines for modeling of materials with voids. Finally, we

TTLEM: Open access tool for building numerically accurate landscape evolution models in MATLAB

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campforts, Benjamin; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Govers, Gerard

2017-04-01

Despite a growing interest in LEMs, accuracy assessment of the numerical methods they are based on has received little attention. Here, we present TTLEM which is an open access landscape evolution package designed to develop and test your own scenarios and hypothesises. TTLEM uses a higher order flux-limiting finite-volume method to simulate river incision and tectonic displacement. We show that this scheme significantly influences the evolution of simulated landscapes and the spatial and temporal variability of erosion rates. Moreover, it allows the simulation of lateral tectonic displacement on a fixed grid. Through the use of a simple GUI the software produces visible output of evolving landscapes through model run time. In this contribution, we illustrate numerical landscape evolution through a set of movies spanning different spatial and temporal scales. We focus on the erosional domain and use both spatially constant and variable input values for uplift, lateral tectonic shortening, erodibility and precipitation. Moreover, we illustrate the relevance of a stochastic approach for realistic hillslope response modelling. TTLEM is a fully open source software package, written in MATLAB and based on the TopoToolbox platform (topotoolbox.wordpress.com). Installation instructions can be found on this website and the therefore designed GitHub repository.

[Evaluation of the effect of varicella outbreak control measures through a discrete time delay SEIR model].

PubMed

Pan, Jin-ren; Huang, Zheng-qiang; Chen, Kun

2012-04-01

forecast the epidemic trend and to evaluate the effect of outbreak control measures by investigation of a varicella outbreak event with a discrete time delay SEIR model. A discrete time delay model was formulated by discretization method based on a continuous SEIR model with the consideration of the time delay effect on latent period and communicable period. The epidemic trend forecast was carried out based on the number of expected cases. The theoretical effect evaluation was assessed by comparing the results from different emergency control measures. Without any control measures, the theoretical attack rate was 30.16% (504/1671). The course of the epidemic lasted for 4 months and the peak epidemic time was 78 days after the onset of the first case. 'Generation' phenomenon had been observed in the course of the epidemic with the interval of two weeks. The actual number of cases was decreased by 89.48% (451/504) compared with the number of expected cases under no control measure scenario. With the rigorous quarantine measure for all cases on their onset day, when the measure was conducted on 0, 14, 28, 42 days after the onset of the first case, the total numbers of expected cases were 22, 59, 127 and 220 respectively. With the quarantine measure conducted on 14 days after the onset of the first case, when the proportion of quarantine was 30%, 50%, 70%, 90%, the total number of expected cases were 485, 457, 386 and 169, respectively. With the emergent vaccination for all persons, when the measure was conducted on 0, 14, 28, 42 days after the onset of the first case, the total numbers of expected cases were 7, 26, 81 and 202 respectively. With the emergent vaccination conducted on 14 days after the onset of the first case, when the immunization coverage rate was 30%, 50%, 70%, 90%, the total numbers of expected cases were 354, 246, 127 and 40, respectively. The number of expected cases can be regarded as the reference to evaluate the effect of control measures. The simulation results suggest that it will get more benefits to conduct control measures earlier in varicella outbreak events, and the effect of emergent vaccination is better than that of quarantine measure under the same conditions.

Spatial and temporal variability of groundwater recharge in Geba basin, Northern Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yenehun, Alemu; Walraevens, Kristine; Batelaan, Okke

2017-10-01

WetSpa, a physically based, spatially distributed watershed model, has been used to study the spatial and temporal variation of recharge in the Geba basin, Northern Ethiopia. The model covers an area of about 4, 249 km2 and integrates elevation, soil and land-use data, hydrometeorological and river discharge data. The Geba basin has a highly variable topography ranging from 1000 to 3280 m with an average slope of 12.9%. The area is characterized by a distinct wet and long dry season with a mean annual precipitation of 681 mm and temperatures ranging between 6.5 °C and 32 °C. The model was simulated on daily basis for nearly four years (January 1, 2000 to December 18, 2003). It resulted in a good agreement between measured and simulated streamflow hydrographs with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of almost 70% and 85% for, respectively, the calibration and validation. The water balance terms show very strong spatial and temporal variability, about 3.8% of the total precipitation is intercepted by the plant canopy; 87.5% infiltrates into the soil (of which 13% percolates, 2.7% flows laterally off and 84.2% evapotranspired from the root zone), and 7.2% is surface runoff. The mean annual recharge varies from about 45 mm (2003) to 208 mm (2001), with average of 98.6 mm/yr. On monthly basis, August has the maximum (73 mm) and December the lowest (0.1 mm) recharge. The mean annual groundwater recharge spatially varies from 0 to 371 mm; mainly controlled by the distribution of rainfall amount, followed by soil and land-use, and to a certain extent, slope. About 21% of Geba has a recharge larger than 120 mm and 1% less than 5 mm.

Extinction phase transitions in a model of ecological and evolutionary dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barghathi, Hatem; Tackkett, Skye; Vojta, Thomas

2017-07-01

We study the non-equilibrium phase transition between survival and extinction of spatially extended biological populations using an agent-based model. We especially focus on the effects of global temporal fluctuations of the environmental conditions, i.e., temporal disorder. Using large-scale Monte-Carlo simulations of up to 3 × 107 organisms and 105 generations, we find the extinction transition in time-independent environments to be in the well-known directed percolation universality class. In contrast, temporal disorder leads to a highly unusual extinction transition characterized by logarithmically slow population decay and enormous fluctuations even for large populations. The simulations provide strong evidence for this transition to be of exotic infinite-noise type, as recently predicted by a renormalization group theory. The transition is accompanied by temporal Griffiths phases featuring a power-law dependence of the life time on the population size.

Fast neural solution of a nonlinear wave equation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Toomarian, Nikzad; Barhen, Jacob

1992-01-01

A neural algorithm for rapidly simulating a certain class of nonlinear wave phenomena using analog VLSI neural hardware is presented and applied to the Korteweg-de Vries partial differential equation. The corresponding neural architecture is obtained from a pseudospectral representation of the spatial dependence, along with a leap-frog scheme for the temporal evolution. Numerical simulations demonstrated the robustness of the proposed approach.

Searching for the right scale in catchment hydrology: the effect of soil spatial variability in simulated states and fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baroni, Gabriele; Zink, Matthias; Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis; Attinger, Sabine

2017-04-01

The advances in computer science and the availability of new detailed data-sets have led to a growing number of distributed hydrological models applied to finer and finer grid resolutions for larger and larger catchment areas. It was argued, however, that this trend does not necessarily guarantee better understanding of the hydrological processes or it is even not necessary for specific modelling applications. In the present study, this topic is further discussed in relation to the soil spatial heterogeneity and its effect on simulated hydrological state and fluxes. To this end, three methods are developed and used for the characterization of the soil heterogeneity at different spatial scales. The methods are applied at the soil map of the upper Neckar catchment (Germany), as example. The different soil realizations are assessed regarding their impact on simulated state and fluxes using the distributed hydrological model mHM. The results are analysed by aggregating the model outputs at different spatial scales based on the Representative Elementary Scale concept (RES) proposed by Refsgaard et al. (2016). The analysis is further extended in the present study by aggregating the model output also at different temporal scales. The results show that small scale soil variabilities are not relevant when the integrated hydrological responses are considered e.g., simulated streamflow or average soil moisture over sub-catchments. On the contrary, these small scale soil variabilities strongly affect locally simulated states and fluxes i.e., soil moisture and evapotranspiration simulated at the grid resolution. A clear trade-off is also detected by aggregating the model output by spatial and temporal scales. Despite the scale at which the soil variabilities are (or are not) relevant is not universal, the RES concept provides a simple and effective framework to quantify the predictive capability of distributed models and to identify the need for further model improvements e.g., finer resolution input. For this reason, the integration in this analysis of all the relevant input factors (e.g., precipitation, vegetation, geology) could provide a strong support for the definition of the right scale for each specific model application. In this context, however, the main challenge for a proper model assessment will be the correct characterization of the spatio- temporal variability of each input factor. Refsgaard, J.C., Højberg, A.L., He, X., Hansen, A.L., Rasmussen, S.H., Stisen, S., 2016. Where are the limits of model predictive capabilities?: Representative Elementary Scale - RES. Hydrol. Process. doi:10.1002/hyp.11029

Diffusion archeology for diffusion progression history reconstruction.

PubMed

Sefer, Emre; Kingsford, Carl

2016-11-01

Diffusion through graphs can be used to model many real-world processes, such as the spread of diseases, social network memes, computer viruses, or water contaminants. Often, a real-world diffusion cannot be directly observed while it is occurring - perhaps it is not noticed until some time has passed, continuous monitoring is too costly, or privacy concerns limit data access. This leads to the need to reconstruct how the present state of the diffusion came to be from partial diffusion data. Here, we tackle the problem of reconstructing a diffusion history from one or more snapshots of the diffusion state. This ability can be invaluable to learn when certain computer nodes are infected or which people are the initial disease spreaders to control future diffusions. We formulate this problem over discrete-time SEIRS-type diffusion models in terms of maximum likelihood. We design methods that are based on submodularity and a novel prize-collecting dominating-set vertex cover (PCDSVC) relaxation that can identify likely diffusion steps with some provable performance guarantees. Our methods are the first to be able to reconstruct complete diffusion histories accurately in real and simulated situations. As a special case, they can also identify the initial spreaders better than the existing methods for that problem. Our results for both meme and contaminant diffusion show that the partial diffusion data problem can be overcome with proper modeling and methods, and that hidden temporal characteristics of diffusion can be predicted from limited data.

Diffusion archeology for diffusion progression history reconstruction

PubMed Central

Sefer, Emre; Kingsford, Carl

2015-01-01

Diffusion through graphs can be used to model many real-world processes, such as the spread of diseases, social network memes, computer viruses, or water contaminants. Often, a real-world diffusion cannot be directly observed while it is occurring — perhaps it is not noticed until some time has passed, continuous monitoring is too costly, or privacy concerns limit data access. This leads to the need to reconstruct how the present state of the diffusion came to be from partial diffusion data. Here, we tackle the problem of reconstructing a diffusion history from one or more snapshots of the diffusion state. This ability can be invaluable to learn when certain computer nodes are infected or which people are the initial disease spreaders to control future diffusions. We formulate this problem over discrete-time SEIRS-type diffusion models in terms of maximum likelihood. We design methods that are based on submodularity and a novel prize-collecting dominating-set vertex cover (PCDSVC) relaxation that can identify likely diffusion steps with some provable performance guarantees. Our methods are the first to be able to reconstruct complete diffusion histories accurately in real and simulated situations. As a special case, they can also identify the initial spreaders better than the existing methods for that problem. Our results for both meme and contaminant diffusion show that the partial diffusion data problem can be overcome with proper modeling and methods, and that hidden temporal characteristics of diffusion can be predicted from limited data. PMID:27821901

Elucidating the Functional Roles of Spatial Organization in Cross-Membrane Signal Transduction by a Hybrid Simulation Method.

PubMed

Chen, Jiawen; Xie, Zhong-Ru; Wu, Yinghao

2016-07-01

The ligand-binding of membrane receptors on cell surfaces initiates the dynamic process of cross-membrane signal transduction. It is an indispensable part of the signaling network for cells to communicate with external environments. Recent experiments revealed that molecular components in signal transduction are not randomly mixed, but spatially organized into distinctive patterns. These patterns, such as receptor clustering and ligand oligomerization, lead to very different gene expression profiles. However, little is understood about the molecular mechanisms and functional impacts of this spatial-temporal regulation in cross-membrane signal transduction. In order to tackle this problem, we developed a hybrid computational method that decomposes a model of signaling network into two simulation modules. The physical process of binding between receptors and ligands on cell surfaces are simulated by a diffusion-reaction algorithm, while the downstream biochemical reactions are modeled by stochastic simulation of Gillespie algorithm. These two processes are coupled together by a synchronization framework. Using this method, we tested the dynamics of a simple signaling network in which the ligand binding of cell surface receptors triggers the phosphorylation of protein kinases, and in turn regulates the expression of target genes. We found that spatial aggregation of membrane receptors at cellular interfaces is able to either amplify or inhibit downstream signaling outputs, depending on the details of clustering mechanism. Moreover, by providing higher binding avidity, the co-localization of ligands into multi-valence complex modulates signaling in very different ways that are closely related to the binding affinity between ligand and receptor. We also found that the temporal oscillation of the signaling pathway that is derived from genetic feedback loops can be modified by the spatial clustering of membrane receptors. In summary, our method demonstrates the functional importance of spatial organization in cross-membrane signal transduction. The method can be applied to any specific signaling pathway in cells.

An Experimental Investigation of Intermittent Flow and Strain Burst Scaling Behavior in LiF Crystals During Microcompression Testing (Preprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

or in more general terms, as a result of dislocation nucleation, motion, multiplication, and interaction). Nonetheless, state-of-the-art simulation ...computational power, together with under-developed physics within the simulation codes (i.e. cross-slip, climb, crystal rotations and patterning to...name a few), prevent realistic dislocation simulations over temporal and spatial domains that are readily accessible by experimental methods [9, 10

A computational model for how cells choose temporal or spatial sensing during chemotaxis.

PubMed

Tan, Rui Zhen; Chiam, Keng-Hwee

2018-03-01

Cell size is thought to play an important role in choosing between temporal and spatial sensing in chemotaxis. Large cells are thought to use spatial sensing due to large chemical difference at its ends whereas small cells are incapable of spatial sensing due to rapid homogenization of proteins within the cell. However, small cells have been found to polarize and large cells like sperm cells undergo temporal sensing. Thus, it remains an open question what exactly governs spatial versus temporal sensing. Here, we identify the factors that determines sensing choices through mathematical modeling of chemotactic circuits. Comprehensive computational search of three-node signaling circuits has identified the negative integral feedback (NFB) and incoherent feedforward (IFF) circuits as capable of adaptation, an important property for chemotaxis. Cells are modeled as one-dimensional circular system consisting of diffusible activator, inactivator and output proteins, traveling across a chemical gradient. From our simulations, we find that sensing outcomes are similar for NFB or IFF circuits. Rather than cell size, the relevant parameters are the 1) ratio of cell speed to the product of cell diameter and rate of signaling, 2) diffusivity of the output protein and 3) ratio of the diffusivities of the activator to inactivator protein. Spatial sensing is favored when all three parameters are low. This corresponds to a cell moving slower than the time it takes for signaling to propagate across the cell diameter, has an output protein that is polarizable and has a local-excitation global-inhibition system to amplify the chemical gradient. Temporal sensing is favored otherwise. We also find that temporal sensing is more robust to noise. By performing extensive literature search, we find that our prediction agrees with observation in a wide range of species and cell types ranging from E. coli to human Fibroblast cells and propose that our result is universally applicable.

A computational model for how cells choose temporal or spatial sensing during chemotaxis

PubMed Central

Tan, Rui Zhen; Chiam, Keng-Hwee

2018-01-01

Cell size is thought to play an important role in choosing between temporal and spatial sensing in chemotaxis. Large cells are thought to use spatial sensing due to large chemical difference at its ends whereas small cells are incapable of spatial sensing due to rapid homogenization of proteins within the cell. However, small cells have been found to polarize and large cells like sperm cells undergo temporal sensing. Thus, it remains an open question what exactly governs spatial versus temporal sensing. Here, we identify the factors that determines sensing choices through mathematical modeling of chemotactic circuits. Comprehensive computational search of three-node signaling circuits has identified the negative integral feedback (NFB) and incoherent feedforward (IFF) circuits as capable of adaptation, an important property for chemotaxis. Cells are modeled as one-dimensional circular system consisting of diffusible activator, inactivator and output proteins, traveling across a chemical gradient. From our simulations, we find that sensing outcomes are similar for NFB or IFF circuits. Rather than cell size, the relevant parameters are the 1) ratio of cell speed to the product of cell diameter and rate of signaling, 2) diffusivity of the output protein and 3) ratio of the diffusivities of the activator to inactivator protein. Spatial sensing is favored when all three parameters are low. This corresponds to a cell moving slower than the time it takes for signaling to propagate across the cell diameter, has an output protein that is polarizable and has a local-excitation global-inhibition system to amplify the chemical gradient. Temporal sensing is favored otherwise. We also find that temporal sensing is more robust to noise. By performing extensive literature search, we find that our prediction agrees with observation in a wide range of species and cell types ranging from E. coli to human Fibroblast cells and propose that our result is universally applicable. PMID:29505572

Binomial tau-leap spatial stochastic simulation algorithm for applications in chemical kinetics.

PubMed

Marquez-Lago, Tatiana T; Burrage, Kevin

2007-09-14

In cell biology, cell signaling pathway problems are often tackled with deterministic temporal models, well mixed stochastic simulators, and/or hybrid methods. But, in fact, three dimensional stochastic spatial modeling of reactions happening inside the cell is needed in order to fully understand these cell signaling pathways. This is because noise effects, low molecular concentrations, and spatial heterogeneity can all affect the cellular dynamics. However, there are ways in which important effects can be accounted without going to the extent of using highly resolved spatial simulators (such as single-particle software), hence reducing the overall computation time significantly. We present a new coarse grained modified version of the next subvolume method that allows the user to consider both diffusion and reaction events in relatively long simulation time spans as compared with the original method and other commonly used fully stochastic computational methods. Benchmarking of the simulation algorithm was performed through comparison with the next subvolume method and well mixed models (MATLAB), as well as stochastic particle reaction and transport simulations (CHEMCELL, Sandia National Laboratories). Additionally, we construct a model based on a set of chemical reactions in the epidermal growth factor receptor pathway. For this particular application and a bistable chemical system example, we analyze and outline the advantages of our presented binomial tau-leap spatial stochastic simulation algorithm, in terms of efficiency and accuracy, in scenarios of both molecular homogeneity and heterogeneity.

Extreme events in a vortex gas simulation of a turbulent half-jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suryanarayanan, Saikishan; Pathikonda, Gokul; Narasimha, Roddam

2012-11-01

Extensive simulations [arXiv:1008.2876v1 [physics.flu-dyn], BAPS.2010.DFD.LE.4] have shown that the temporally evolving vortex gas mixing layer has 3 regimes, including one which has a universal spreading rate. The present study explores the development of spatially evolving mixing layers, using a vortex gas model based on Basu et al. (1995 Appl. Math. Modelling). The effects of the velocity ratio (r) are analyzed via the most extensive simulations of this kind till date, involving up to 10000 vortices and averaging over up to 1000 convective times. While the temporal limit is approached as r approaches unity, striking features such as extreme events involving coherent structures, bending, deviation of the convection velocity from mean velocity, spatial feedback and greater sensitivity to downstream and free stream boundary conditions are observed in the half-jet (r = 0) limit. A detailed statistical analysis reveals possible causes for the large scatter across experiments, as opposed to the commonly adopted explanation of asymptotic dependence on initial conditions. Supported in part by contract no. Intel/RN/4288.

Fully Resolved Simulations of Particle-Bed-Turbulence Interactions in Oscillatory Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apte, S.; Ghodke, C.

2017-12-01

Particle-resolved direct numerical simulations (DNS) are performed to investigate the behavior of an oscillatory flow field over a bed of closely packed fixed spherical particles for a range of Reynolds numbers in transitional and rough turbulent flow regime. Presence of roughness leads to a substantial modification of the underlying boundary layer mechanism resulting in increased bed shear stress, reduction in the near-bed anisotropy, modification of the near-bed sweep and ejection motions along with marked changes in turbulent energy transport mechanisms. Characterization of such resulting flow field is performed by studying statistical descriptions of the near-bed turbulence for different roughness parameters. A double-averaging technique is employed to reveal spatial inhomogeneities at the roughness scale that provide alternate paths of energy transport in the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget. Spatio-temporal characteristics of unsteady particle forces by studying their spatial distribution, temporal auto-correlations, frequency spectra, cross-correlations with near-bed turbulent flow variables and intermittency intermittency in the forces using the concept of impulse are investigated in detail. These first principle simulations provide substantial insights into the modeling of incipient motion of sediments.

Simulating the spread of malaria using a generic transmission model for mosquito-borne infectious diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kon, Cynthia Mui Lian; Labadin, Jane

2016-06-01

Malaria is a critical infection caused by parasites which are spread to humans through mosquito bites. Approximately half of the world's population is in peril of getting infected by malaria. Mosquito-borne diseases have a standard behavior where they are transmitted in the same manner, only through vector mosquito. Taking this into account, a generic spatial-temporal model for transmission of multiple mosquito-borne diseases had been formulated. Our interest is to reproduce the actual cases of different mosquito-borne diseases using the generic model and then predict future cases so as to improve control and target measures competently. In this paper, we utilize notified weekly malaria cases in four districts in Sarawak, Malaysia, namely Kapit, Song, Belaga and Marudi. The actual cases for 36 weeks, which is from week 39 in 2012 to week 22 in 2013, are compared with simulations of the generic spatial-temporal transmission mosquito-borne diseases model. We observe that the simulation results display corresponding result to the actual malaria cases in the four districts.

MR-guided dynamic PET reconstruction with the kernel method and spectral temporal basis functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novosad, Philip; Reader, Andrew J.

2016-06-01

Recent advances in dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) reconstruction have demonstrated that it is possible to achieve markedly improved end-point kinetic parameter maps by incorporating a temporal model of the radiotracer directly into the reconstruction algorithm. In this work we have developed a highly constrained, fully dynamic PET reconstruction algorithm incorporating both spectral analysis temporal basis functions and spatial basis functions derived from the kernel method applied to a co-registered T1-weighted magnetic resonance (MR) image. The dynamic PET image is modelled as a linear combination of spatial and temporal basis functions, and a maximum likelihood estimate for the coefficients can be found using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Following reconstruction, kinetic fitting using any temporal model of interest can be applied. Based on a BrainWeb T1-weighted MR phantom, we performed a realistic dynamic [18F]FDG simulation study with two noise levels, and investigated the quantitative performance of the proposed reconstruction algorithm, comparing it with reconstructions incorporating either spectral analysis temporal basis functions alone or kernel spatial basis functions alone, as well as with conventional frame-independent reconstruction. Compared to the other reconstruction algorithms, the proposed algorithm achieved superior performance, offering a decrease in spatially averaged pixel-level root-mean-square-error on post-reconstruction kinetic parametric maps in the grey/white matter, as well as in the tumours when they were present on the co-registered MR image. When the tumours were not visible in the MR image, reconstruction with the proposed algorithm performed similarly to reconstruction with spectral temporal basis functions and was superior to both conventional frame-independent reconstruction and frame-independent reconstruction with kernel spatial basis functions. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a joint spectral/kernel model can also be used for effective post-reconstruction denoising, through the use of an EM-like image-space algorithm. Finally, we applied the proposed algorithm to reconstruction of real high-resolution dynamic [11C]SCH23390 data, showing promising results.

MR-guided dynamic PET reconstruction with the kernel method and spectral temporal basis functions.

PubMed

Novosad, Philip; Reader, Andrew J

2016-06-21

Recent advances in dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) reconstruction have demonstrated that it is possible to achieve markedly improved end-point kinetic parameter maps by incorporating a temporal model of the radiotracer directly into the reconstruction algorithm. In this work we have developed a highly constrained, fully dynamic PET reconstruction algorithm incorporating both spectral analysis temporal basis functions and spatial basis functions derived from the kernel method applied to a co-registered T1-weighted magnetic resonance (MR) image. The dynamic PET image is modelled as a linear combination of spatial and temporal basis functions, and a maximum likelihood estimate for the coefficients can be found using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Following reconstruction, kinetic fitting using any temporal model of interest can be applied. Based on a BrainWeb T1-weighted MR phantom, we performed a realistic dynamic [(18)F]FDG simulation study with two noise levels, and investigated the quantitative performance of the proposed reconstruction algorithm, comparing it with reconstructions incorporating either spectral analysis temporal basis functions alone or kernel spatial basis functions alone, as well as with conventional frame-independent reconstruction. Compared to the other reconstruction algorithms, the proposed algorithm achieved superior performance, offering a decrease in spatially averaged pixel-level root-mean-square-error on post-reconstruction kinetic parametric maps in the grey/white matter, as well as in the tumours when they were present on the co-registered MR image. When the tumours were not visible in the MR image, reconstruction with the proposed algorithm performed similarly to reconstruction with spectral temporal basis functions and was superior to both conventional frame-independent reconstruction and frame-independent reconstruction with kernel spatial basis functions. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a joint spectral/kernel model can also be used for effective post-reconstruction denoising, through the use of an EM-like image-space algorithm. Finally, we applied the proposed algorithm to reconstruction of real high-resolution dynamic [(11)C]SCH23390 data, showing promising results.

Dynamic Shade and Irradiance Simulation of Aquatic ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Penumbra is a landscape shade and irradiance simulation model that simulates how solar energy spatially and temporally interacts within dynamic ecosystems such as riparian zones, forests, and other terrain that cast topological shadows. Direct and indirect solar energy accumulates across landscapes and is the main energy driver for increasing aquatic and landscape temperatures at both local and holistic scales. Landscape disturbances such as landuse change, clear cutting, and fire can cause significant variations in the resulting irradiance reaching particular locations. Penumbra can simulate solar angles and irradiance at definable temporal grains as low as one minute while simulating landscape shadowing up to an entire year. Landscapes can be represented at sub-meter resolutions with appropriate spatial data inputs, such as field data or elevation and surface object heights derived from light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data. This work describes Penumbra’s framework and methodology, external model integration capability, and appropriate model application for a variety of watershed restoration project types. First, an overview of Penumbra’s framework reveals what this model adds to the existing ecological modeling domain. Second, Penumbra’s stand-alone and integration modes are explained and demonstrated. Stand-alone modeling results are showcased within the 3-D visualization tool VISTAS (VISualizing Terrestrial-Aquatic Systems), which fluently summariz

A geostatistical state-space model of animal densities for stream networks.

PubMed

Hocking, Daniel J; Thorson, James T; O'Neil, Kyle; Letcher, Benjamin H

2018-06-21

Population dynamics are often correlated in space and time due to correlations in environmental drivers as well as synchrony induced by individual dispersal. Many statistical analyses of populations ignore potential autocorrelations and assume that survey methods (distance and time between samples) eliminate these correlations, allowing samples to be treated independently. If these assumptions are incorrect, results and therefore inference may be biased and uncertainty under-estimated. We developed a novel statistical method to account for spatio-temporal correlations within dendritic stream networks, while accounting for imperfect detection in the surveys. Through simulations, we found this model decreased predictive error relative to standard statistical methods when data were spatially correlated based on stream distance and performed similarly when data were not correlated. We found that increasing the number of years surveyed substantially improved the model accuracy when estimating spatial and temporal correlation coefficients, especially from 10 to 15 years. Increasing the number of survey sites within the network improved the performance of the non-spatial model but only marginally improved the density estimates in the spatio-temporal model. We applied this model to Brook Trout data from the West Susquehanna Watershed in Pennsylvania collected over 34 years from 1981 - 2014. We found the model including temporal and spatio-temporal autocorrelation best described young-of-the-year (YOY) and adult density patterns. YOY densities were positively related to forest cover and negatively related to spring temperatures with low temporal autocorrelation and moderately-high spatio-temporal correlation. Adult densities were less strongly affected by climatic conditions and less temporally variable than YOY but with similar spatio-temporal correlation and higher temporal autocorrelation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

LPJ-GUESS Simulated North America Vegetation for 21-0 ka Using the TraCE-21ka Climate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

2016-12-01

Transient climate simulations that span multiple millennia (e.g., TraCE-21ka) have become more common as computing power has increased, allowing climate models to complete long simulations in relatively short periods of time (i.e., months). These climate simulations provide information on the potential rate, variability, and spatial expression of past climate changes. They also can be used as input data for other environmental models to simulate transient changes for different components of paleoenvironmental systems, such as vegetation. Long, transient paleovegetation simulations can provide information on a range of ecological processes, describe the spatial and temporal patterns of changes in species distributions, and identify the potential locations of past species refugia. Paleovegetation simulations also can be used to fill in spatial and temporal gaps in observed paleovegetation data (e.g., pollen records from lake sediments) and to test hypotheses of past vegetation change. We used the TraCE-21ka transient climate simulation for 21-0 ka from CCSM3, a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The TraCE-21ka simulated temperature, precipitation, and cloud data were regridded onto a 10-minute grid of North America. These regridded climate data, along with soil data and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, were used as input to LPJ-GUESS, a general ecosystem model, to simulate North America vegetation from 21-0 ka. LPJ-GUESS simulates many of the processes controlling the distribution of vegetation (e.g., competition), although some important processes (e.g., dispersal) are not simulated. We evaluate the LPJ-GUESS-simulated vegetation (in the form of plant functional types and biomes) for key time periods and compare the simulated vegetation with observed paleovegetation data, such as data archived in the Neotoma Paleoecology Database. In general, vegetation simulated by LPJ-GUESS reproduces the major North America vegetation patterns (e.g., forest, grassland) with regional areas of disagreement between simulated and observed vegetation. We describe the regions and time periods with the greatest data-model agreement and disagreement, and discuss some of the strengths and weaknesses of both the simulated climate and simulated vegetation data.

Initial studies of middle and upper tropospheric stratiform clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cox, S. K.

1982-01-01

The spatial and temporal occurrence of cloud layers, the development of a physical-numerical model to simulate the life cycles of tropospheric cloud layers, and the design of an observational program to study the properties of these layers are described.

MULTIMEDIA ENVIRONMENTAL DISTRIBUTION OF TOXICS (MEND-TOX): PART II, SOFTWARE IMPLEMENTATION AND CASE STUDIES

EPA Science Inventory

An integrated hybrid spatial-compartmental simulator is presented for analyzing the dynamic distribution of chemicals in the multimedia environment. Information obtained from such analysis, which includes temporal chemical concentration profiles in various media, mass distribu...

A spline-based approach for computing spatial impulse responses.

PubMed

Ellis, Michael A; Guenther, Drake; Walker, William F

2007-05-01

Computer simulations are an essential tool for the design of phased-array ultrasonic imaging systems. FIELD II, which determines the two-way temporal response of a transducer at a point in space, is the current de facto standard for ultrasound simulation tools. However, the need often arises to obtain two-way spatial responses at a single point in time, a set of dimensions for which FIELD II is not well optimized. This paper describes an analytical approach for computing the two-way, far-field, spatial impulse response from rectangular transducer elements under arbitrary excitation. The described approach determines the response as the sum of polynomial functions, making computational implementation quite straightforward. The proposed algorithm, named DELFI, was implemented as a C routine under Matlab and results were compared to those obtained under similar conditions from the well-established FIELD II program. Under the specific conditions tested here, the proposed algorithm was approximately 142 times faster than FIELD II for computing spatial sensitivity functions with similar amounts of error. For temporal sensitivity functions with similar amounts of error, the proposed algorithm was about 1.7 times slower than FIELD II using rectangular elements and 19.2 times faster than FIELD II using triangular elements. DELFI is shown to be an attractive complement to FIELD II, especially when spatial responses are needed at a specific point in time.

Mechanisms of myocardial capture and temporal excitable gap during spiral wave reentry in a bidomain model.

PubMed

Ashihara, Takashi; Namba, Tsunetoyo; Ikeda, Takanori; Ito, Makoto; Nakazawa, Kazuo; Trayanova, Natalia

2004-02-24

Recent studies have demonstrated that regional capture during cardiac fibrillation is associated with an elevated capture threshold. It is typically assumed that the temporal excitable gap (capture window) during fibrillation reflects the size of the spatial excitable gap (excitable tissue between fibrillation waves). Because capture threshold is high, virtual electrode polarization is expected to be involved in the process. However, little is known about the underlying mechanisms of myocardial capture during fibrillation. To clarify these issues, we conducted altogether 3168 simulations of single spiral wave capture in a bidomain sheet. Unipolar stimuli of strengths 4, 8, 16, and 24 mA and 2-ms duration were delivered at 99 locations in the sheet. We found that cathode-break rather than cathode-make excitation was the dominant mechanism of myocardial capture. When the stimulation site was located diagonally with respect to the core (upper left or lower right if the spiral wave rotates counterclockwise), the cathode-break excitation easily invaded the spatial excitable gap and resulted in a successful capture as a result of the formation of virtual anodes in the direction of the myocardial fibers. Thus, the spatial distribution of the temporal excitable gap did not reflect the spatial excitable gap. The areas exhibiting wide temporal excitable gaps were areas in which the cathode-break excitation wave fronts easily invaded the spatial excitable gap via the virtual anodes. This study provides mechanistic insight into myocardial capture.

OpenMP parallelization of a gridded SWAT (SWATG)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ying; Hou, Jinliang; Cao, Yongpan; Gu, Juan; Huang, Chunlin

2017-12-01

Large-scale, long-term and high spatial resolution simulation is a common issue in environmental modeling. A Gridded Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU)-based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWATG) that integrates grid modeling scheme with different spatial representations also presents such problems. The time-consuming problem affects applications of very high resolution large-scale watershed modeling. The OpenMP (Open Multi-Processing) parallel application interface is integrated with SWATG (called SWATGP) to accelerate grid modeling based on the HRU level. Such parallel implementation takes better advantage of the computational power of a shared memory computer system. We conducted two experiments at multiple temporal and spatial scales of hydrological modeling using SWATG and SWATGP on a high-end server. At 500-m resolution, SWATGP was found to be up to nine times faster than SWATG in modeling over a roughly 2000 km2 watershed with 1 CPU and a 15 thread configuration. The study results demonstrate that parallel models save considerable time relative to traditional sequential simulation runs. Parallel computations of environmental models are beneficial for model applications, especially at large spatial and temporal scales and at high resolutions. The proposed SWATGP model is thus a promising tool for large-scale and high-resolution water resources research and management in addition to offering data fusion and model coupling ability.

The inclusion of ocean-current effects in a tidal-current model as forcing in the convection term and its application to the mesoscale fate of CO2 seeping from the seafloor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakaizawa, Ryosuke; Kawai, Takaya; Sato, Toru; Oyama, Hiroyuki; Tsumune, Daisuke; Tsubono, Takaki; Goto, Koichi

2018-03-01

The target seas of tidal-current models are usually semi-closed bays, minimally affected by ocean currents. For these models, tidal currents are simulated in computational domains with a spatial scale of a couple hundred kilometers or less, by setting tidal elevations at their open boundaries. However, when ocean currents cannot be ignored in the sea areas of interest, such as in open seas near coastlines, it is necessary to include ocean-current effects in these tidal-current models. In this study, we developed a numerical method to analyze tidal currents near coasts by incorporating pre-calculated ocean-current velocities. First, a large regional-scale simulation with a spatial scale of several thousand kilometers was conducted and temporal changes in the ocean-current velocity at each grid point were stored. Next, the spatially and temporally interpolated ocean-current velocity was incorporated as forcing into the cross terms of the convection term of a tidal-current model having computational domains with spatial scales of hundreds of kilometers or less. Then, we applied this method to the diffusion of dissolved CO2 in a sea area off Tomakomai, Japan, and compared the numerical results and measurements to validate the proposed method.

Spatially-Aware Temporal Anomaly Mapping of Gamma Spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinhart, Alex; Athey, Alex; Biegalski, Steven

2014-06-01

For security, environmental, and regulatory purposes it is useful to continuously monitor wide areas for unexpected changes in radioactivity. We report on a temporal anomaly detection algorithm which uses mobile detectors to build a spatial map of background spectra, allowing sensitive detection of any anomalies through many days or months of monitoring. We adapt previously-developed anomaly detection methods, which compare spectral shape rather than count rate, to function with limited background data, allowing sensitive detection of small changes in spectral shape from day to day. To demonstrate this technique we collected daily observations over the period of six weeks on a 0.33 square mile research campus and performed source injection simulations.

Does the stress-gradient hypothesis hold water? Disentangling spatial and temporal variation in plant effects on soil moisture in dryland systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butterfield, Bradley J.; Bradford, John B.; Armas, Cristina; Prieto, Ivan; Pugnaire, Francisco I.

2016-01-01

Taken together, the results of this simulation study suggest that plant effects on soil moisture are predictable based on relatively general relationships between precipitation inputs and differential evaporation and transpiration rates between plant and interspace microsites that are largely driven by temperature. In particular, this study highlights the importance of differentiating between temporal and spatial variation in weather and climate, respectively, in determining plant effects on available soil moisture. Rather than focusing on the somewhat coarse-scale predictions of the SGH, it may be more beneficial to explicitly incorporate plant effects on soil moisture into predictive models of plant-plant interaction outcomes in drylands.

Kriging for Spatial-Temporal Data on the Bridges Supercomputer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodgess, E. M.

2017-12-01

Currently, kriging of spatial-temporal data is slow and limited to relatively small vector sizes. We have developed a method on the Bridges supercomputer, at the Pittsburgh supercomputer center, which uses a combination of the tools R, Fortran, the Message Passage Interface (MPI), OpenACC, and special R packages for big data. This combination of tools now permits us to complete tasks which could previously not be completed, or takes literally hours to complete. We ran simulation studies from a laptop against the supercomputer. We also look at "real world" data sets, such as the Irish wind data, and some weather data. We compare the timings. We note that the timings are suprising good.

Investigation of temporal-resolved emission spectra of highly charged Al ions from laser-produced plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Su, M. G., E-mail: sumg@nwnu.edu.cn; Sun, D. X.; Dong, C. Z.

2016-03-15

Temporal evolution of extreme ultraviolet emission from laser-produced aluminum (Al) plasma has been experimentally and theoretically investigated. Al plasmas have been measured by using the temporal-spatially resolved laser-produced plasma technique. The emission lines can be identified from 2p-3s, 3d, 4s, 4d, 5d transition lines from Al{sup 3+} to Al{sup 6+} ions. In order to quickly diagnose the plasma, the assumptions of a normalized Boltzmann distribution among the excited states and a steady-state collisional-radiative model are used to estimate the values of electron temperature and electron density in plasma. We succeeded in reproducing the simulated spectra related to the different timemore » delays, which are in good agreement with experiments. Temporal evolution behavior of highly charged Al ions in plasma has been analyzed, and the exponential decay about electron temperature and electron density has been obtained. The results indicate that the temporal-spatially resolved measurement is essential for accurate understanding of evolution behavior of highly charged ions in laser-produced plasmas.« less

Incorporating spatial constraint in co-activation pattern analysis to explore the dynamics of resting-state networks: An application to Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Zhuang, Xiaowei; Walsh, Ryan R; Sreenivasan, Karthik; Yang, Zhengshi; Mishra, Virendra; Cordes, Dietmar

2018-05-15

The dynamics of the brain's intrinsic networks have been recently studied using co-activation pattern (CAP) analysis. The CAP method relies on few model assumptions and CAP-based measurements provide quantitative information of network temporal dynamics. One limitation of existing CAP-related methods is that the computed CAPs share considerable spatial overlap that may or may not be functionally distinct relative to specific network dynamics. To more accurately describe network dynamics with spatially distinct CAPs, and to compare network dynamics between different populations, a novel data-driven CAP group analysis method is proposed in this study. In the proposed method, a dominant-CAP (d-CAP) set is synthesized across CAPs from multiple clustering runs for each group with the constraint of low spatial similarities among d-CAPs. Alternating d-CAPs with less overlapping spatial patterns can better capture overall network dynamics. The number of d-CAPs, the temporal fraction and spatial consistency of each d-CAP, and the subject-specific switching probability among all d-CAPs are then calculated for each group and used to compare network dynamics between groups. The spatial dissimilarities among d-CAPs computed with the proposed method were first demonstrated using simulated data. High consistency between simulated ground-truth and computed d-CAPs was achieved, and detailed comparisons between the proposed method and existing CAP-based methods were conducted using simulated data. In an effort to physiologically validate the proposed technique and investigate network dynamics in a relevant brain network disorder, the proposed method was then applied to data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) database to compare the network dynamics in Parkinson's disease (PD) and normal control (NC) groups. Fewer d-CAPs, skewed distribution of temporal fractions of d-CAPs, and reduced switching probabilities among final d-CAPs were found in most networks in the PD group, as compared to the NC group. Furthermore, an overall negative association between switching probability among d-CAPs and disease severity was observed in most networks in the PD group as well. These results expand upon previous findings from in vivo electrophysiological recording studies in PD. Importantly, this novel analysis also demonstrates that changes in network dynamics can be measured using resting-state fMRI data from subjects with early stage PD. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal variations in mango colour, acidity, and sweetness in relation to temperature and ethylene gradients within the fruit.

PubMed

Nordey, Thibault; Léchaudel, Mathieu; Génard, Michel; Joas, Jacques

2014-11-01

Managing fruit quality is complex because many different attributes have to be taken into account, which are themselves subjected to spatial and temporal variations. Heterogeneous fruit quality has been assumed to be partly related to temperature and maturity gradients within the fruit. To test this assumption, we measured the spatial variability of certain mango fruit quality traits: colour of the peel and of the flesh, and sourness and sweetness, at different stages of fruit maturity using destructive methods as well as vis-NIR reflectance. The spatial variability of mango quality traits was compared to internal variations in thermal time, simulated by a physical model, and to internal variations in maturity, using ethylene content as an indicator. All the fruit quality indicators analysed showed significant spatial and temporal variations, regardless of the measurement method used. The heterogeneity of internal fruit quality traits was not correlated with the marked internal temperature gradient we modelled. However, variations in ethylene content revealed a strong internal maturity gradient which was correlated with the spatial variations in measured mango quality traits. Nonetheless, alone, the internal maturity gradient did not explain the variability of fruit quality traits, suggesting that other factors, such as gas, abscisic acid and water gradients, are also involved. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Simulating large atmospheric phase screens using a woofer-tweeter algorithm.

PubMed

Buscher, David F

2016-10-03

We describe an algorithm for simulating atmospheric wavefront perturbations over ranges of spatial and temporal scales spanning more than 4 orders of magnitude. An open-source implementation of the algorithm written in Python can simulate the evolution of the perturbations more than an order-of-magnitude faster than real time. Testing of the implementation using metrics appropriate to adaptive optics systems and long-baseline interferometers show accuracies at the few percent level or better.

Characteristics of flight simulator visual systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Statler, I. C. (Editor)

1981-01-01

The physical parameters of the flight simulator visual system that characterize the system and determine its fidelity are identified and defined. The characteristics of visual simulation systems are discussed in terms of the basic categories of spatial, energy, and temporal properties corresponding to the three fundamental quantities of length, mass, and time. Each of these parameters are further addressed in relation to its effect, its appropriate units or descriptors, methods of measurement, and its use or importance to image quality.

Modelling spatio-temporal variability of Mytilus edulis (L.) growth by forcing a dynamic energy budget model with satellite-derived environmental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Yoann; Mazurié, Joseph; Alunno-Bruscia, Marianne; Bacher, Cédric; Bouget, Jean-François; Gohin, Francis; Pouvreau, Stéphane; Struski, Caroline

2011-11-01

In order to assess the potential of various marine ecosystems for shellfish aquaculture and to evaluate their carrying capacities, there is a need to clarify the response of exploited species to environmental variations using robust ecophysiological models and available environmental data. For a large range of applications and comparison purposes, a non-specific approach based on 'generic' individual growth models offers many advantages. In this context, we simulated the response of blue mussel ( Mytilus edulis L.) to the spatio-temporal fluctuations of the environment in Mont Saint-Michel Bay (North Brittany) by forcing a generic growth model based on Dynamic Energy Budgets with satellite-derived environmental data (i.e. temperature and food). After a calibration step based on data from mussel growth surveys, the model was applied over nine years on a large area covering the entire bay. These simulations provide an evaluation of the spatio-temporal variability in mussel growth and also show the ability of the DEB model to integrate satellite-derived data and to predict spatial and temporal growth variability of mussels. Observed seasonal, inter-annual and spatial growth variations are well simulated. The large-scale application highlights the strong link between food and mussel growth. The methodology described in this study may be considered as a suitable approach to account for environmental effects (food and temperature variations) on physiological responses (growth and reproduction) of filter feeders in varying environments. Such physiological responses may then be useful for evaluating the suitability of coastal ecosystems for shellfish aquaculture.

The Forest Vegetation Simulator: A review of its structure, content, and applications

Treesearch

Nicholas L. Crookston; Gary E. Dixon

2005-01-01

The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) is a distance-independent, individual-tree forest growth model widely used in the United States to support management decisionmaking. Stands are the basic projection unit, but the spatial scope can be many thousands of stands. The temporal scope is several hundred years at a resolution of 5­10 years. Projections start with a...

Effects of spatial and temporal resolution on simulated feedbacks from polygonal tundra.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coon, E.; Atchley, A. L.; Painter, S. L.; Karra, S.; Moulton, J. D.; Wilson, C. J.; Liljedahl, A.

2014-12-01

Earth system land models typically resolve permafrost regions at spatial resolutions grossly larger than the scales of topographic variation. This observation leads to two critical questions: How much error is introduced by this lack of resolution, and what is the effect of this approximation on other coupled components of the Earth system, notably the energy balance and carbon cycle? Here we use the Arctic Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) to run micro-topography resolving simulations of polygonal ground, driven by meteorological data from Barrow, AK, to address these questions. ATS couples surface and subsurface processes, including thermal hydrology, surface energy balance, and a snow model. Comparisons are made between one-dimensional "column model" simulations (similar to, for instance, CLM or other land models typically used in Earth System models) and higher-dimensional simulations which resolve micro-topography, allowing for distributed surface runoff, horizontal flow in the subsurface, and uneven snow distribution. Additionally, we drive models with meteorological data averaged over different time scales from daily to weekly moving windows. In each case, we compare fluxes important to the surface energy balance including albedo, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and land-to-atmosphere long-wave radiation. Results indicate that spatial topography variation and temporal variability are important in several ways. Snow distribution greatly affects the surface energy balance, fundamentally changing the partitioning of incoming solar radiation between the subsurface and the atmosphere. This has significant effects on soil moisture and temperature, with implications for vegetation and decomposition. Resolving temporal variability is especially important in spring, when early warm days can alter the onset of snowmelt by days to weeks. We show that high-resolution simulations are valuable in evaluating current land models, especially in areas of polygonal ground. This work was supported by LANL Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project LDRD201200068DR and by the The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE Arctic) project. NGEE-Arctic is supported by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research in the DOE Office of Science. LA-UR-14-26227.

Extended-range high-resolution dynamical downscaling over a continental-scale spatial domain with atmospheric and surface nudging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Husain, S. Z.; Separovic, L.; Yu, W.; Fernig, D.

2014-12-01

Extended-range high-resolution mesoscale simulations with limited-area atmospheric models when applied to downscale regional analysis fields over large spatial domains can provide valuable information for many applications including the weather-dependent renewable energy industry. Long-term simulations over a continental-scale spatial domain, however, require mechanisms to control the large-scale deviations in the high-resolution simulated fields from the coarse-resolution driving fields. As enforcement of the lateral boundary conditions is insufficient to restrict such deviations, large scales in the simulated high-resolution meteorological fields are therefore spectrally nudged toward the driving fields. Different spectral nudging approaches, including the appropriate nudging length scales as well as the vertical profiles and temporal relaxations for nudging, have been investigated to propose an optimal nudging strategy. Impacts of time-varying nudging and generation of hourly analysis estimates are explored to circumvent problems arising from the coarse temporal resolution of the regional analysis fields. Although controlling the evolution of the atmospheric large scales generally improves the outputs of high-resolution mesoscale simulations within the surface layer, the prognostically evolving surface fields can nevertheless deviate from their expected values leading to significant inaccuracies in the predicted surface layer meteorology. A forcing strategy based on grid nudging of the different surface fields, including surface temperature, soil moisture, and snow conditions, toward their expected values obtained from a high-resolution offline surface scheme is therefore proposed to limit any considerable deviation. Finally, wind speed and temperature at wind turbine hub height predicted by different spectrally nudged extended-range simulations are compared against observations to demonstrate possible improvements achievable using higher spatiotemporal resolution.

Monitoring, analyzing and simulating of spatial-temporal changes of landscape pattern over mining area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Pei; Han, Ruimei; Wang, Shuangting

2014-11-01

According to the merits of remotely sensed data in depicting regional land cover and Land changes, multi- objective information processing is employed to remote sensing images to analyze and simulate land cover in mining areas. In this paper, multi-temporal remotely sensed data were selected to monitor the pattern, distri- bution and trend of LUCC and predict its impacts on ecological environment and human settlement in mining area. The monitor, analysis and simulation of LUCC in this coal mining areas are divided into five steps. The are information integration of optical and SAR data, LULC types extraction with SVM classifier, LULC trends simulation with CA Markov model, landscape temporal changes monitoring and analysis with confusion matrixes and landscape indices. The results demonstrate that the improved data fusion algorithm could make full use of information extracted from optical and SAR data; SVM classifier has an efficient and stable ability to obtain land cover maps, which could provide a good basis for both land cover change analysis and trend simulation; CA Markov model is able to predict LULC trends with good performance, and it is an effective way to integrate remotely sensed data with spatial-temporal model for analysis of land use / cover change and corresponding environmental impacts in mining area. Confusion matrixes are combined with landscape indices to evaluation and analysis show that, there was a sustained downward trend in agricultural land and bare land, but a continues growth trend tendency in water body, forest and other lands, and building area showing a wave like change, first increased and then decreased; mining landscape has undergone a from small to large and large to small process of fragmentation, agricultural land is the strongest influenced landscape type in this area, and human activities are the primary cause, so the problem should be pay more attentions by government and other organizations.

A PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF THE 2004 RELEASE OF MODELS-3 CMAQ

EPA Science Inventory

This performance evaluation compares a full annual simulation (2001) of CMAQ (Version4.4) covering the contiguous United States against monitoring data from four nationwide networks. This effort, which represents one of the most spatially and temporally comprehensive performance...

Parameter estimation for a cohesive sediment transport model by assimilating satellite observations in the Hangzhou Bay: Temporal variations and spatial distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Daosheng; Zhang, Jicai; He, Xianqiang; Chu, Dongdong; Lv, Xianqing; Wang, Ya Ping; Yang, Yang; Fan, Daidu; Gao, Shu

2018-01-01

Model parameters in the suspended cohesive sediment transport models are critical for the accurate simulation of suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs). Difficulties in estimating the model parameters still prevent numerical modeling of the sediment transport from achieving a high level of predictability. Based on a three-dimensional cohesive sediment transport model and its adjoint model, the satellite remote sensing data of SSCs during both spring tide and neap tide, retrieved from Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI), are assimilated to synchronously estimate four spatially and temporally varying parameters in the Hangzhou Bay in China, including settling velocity, resuspension rate, inflow open boundary conditions and initial conditions. After data assimilation, the model performance is significantly improved. Through several sensitivity experiments, the spatial and temporal variation tendencies of the estimated model parameters are verified to be robust and not affected by model settings. The pattern for the variations of the estimated parameters is analyzed and summarized. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated settling velocity are negatively correlated with current speed, which can be explained using the combination of flocculation process and Stokes' law. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated resuspension rate are also negatively correlated with current speed, which are related to the grain size of the seabed sediments under different current velocities. Besides, the estimated inflow open boundary conditions reach the local maximum values near the low water slack conditions and the estimated initial conditions are negatively correlated with water depth, which is consistent with the general understanding. The relationships between the estimated parameters and the hydrodynamic fields can be suggestive for improving the parameterization in cohesive sediment transport models.

A linked spatial and temporal model of the chemical and biological status of a large, acid-sensitive river network.

PubMed

Evans, Chris D; Cooper, David M; Juggins, Steve; Jenkins, Alan; Norris, Dave

2006-07-15

Freshwater sensitivity to acidification varies according to geology, soils and land-use, and consequently it remains difficult to quantify the current extent of acidification, or its biological impacts, based on limited spot samples. The problem is particularly acute for river systems, where the transition from acid to circum-neutral conditions can occur within short distances. This paper links an established point-based long-term acidification model (MAGIC) with a landscape-based mixing model (PEARLS) to simulate spatial and temporal variations in acidification for a 256 km(2) catchment in North Wales. Empirical relationships are used to predict changes in the probability of occurrence of an indicator invertebrate species, Baetis rhodani, across the catchment as a function of changing chemical status. Results suggest that, at present, 27% of the river network has a mean acid neutralising capacity (ANC) below a biologically-relevant threshold of 20 microeq l(-1). At high flows, this proportion increases to 45%. The model suggests that only around 16% of the stream network had a mean ANC < 20 microeq l(-1) in 1850, but that this increased to 42% at the sulphur deposition peak around 1970. By 2050 recovery is predicted, but with some persistence of acid conditions in the most sensitive, peaty headwaters. Stream chemical suitability for Baetis rhodani is also expected to increase in formerly acidified areas, but for overall abundance to remain below that simulated in 1850. The approach of linking plot-scale process-based models to catchment mixing models provides a potential means of predicting the past and future spatial extent of acidification within large, heterogeneous river networks and regions. Further development of ecological response models to include other chemical predictor variables and the effects of acid episodes would allow more realistic simulation of the temporal and spatial dynamics of ecosystem recovery from acidification.

Mapping Crop Patterns in Central US Agricultural Systems from 2000 to 2014 Based on Landsat Data: To What Degree Does Fusing MODIS Data Improve Classification Accuracies?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, L.; Radeloff, V.; Ives, A. R.; Barton, B.

2015-12-01

Deriving crop pattern with high accuracy is of great importance for characterizing landscape diversity, which affects the resilience of food webs in agricultural systems in the face of climatic and land cover changes. Landsat sensors were originally designed to monitor agricultural areas, and both radiometric and spatial resolution are optimized for monitoring large agricultural fields. Unfortunately, few clear Landsat images per year are available, which has limited the use of Landsat for making crop classification, and this situation is worse in cloudy areas of the Earth. Meanwhile, the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data has better temporal resolution but cannot capture fine spatial heterogeneity of agricultural systems. Our question was to what extent fusing imagery from both sensors could improve crop classifications. We utilized the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM) algorithm to simulate Landsat-like images at MODIS temporal resolution. Based on Random Forests (RF) classifier, we tested whether and by what degree crop maps from 2000 to 2014 of the Arlington Agricultural Research Station (Wisconsin, USA) were improved by integrating available clear Landsat images each year with synthetic images. We predicted that the degree to which classification accuracy can be improved by incorporating synthetic imagery depends on the number and acquisition time of clear Landsat images. Moreover, multi-season data are essential for mapping crop types by capturing their phenological dynamics, and STARFM-simulated images can be used to compensate for missing Landsat observations. Our study is helpful for eliminating the limits of the use of Landsat data in mapping crop patterns, and can provide a benchmark of accuracy when choosing STARFM-simulated images to make crop classification at broader scales.

Laboratory simulation of atmospheric turbulence induced optical wavefront distortion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Travis Shane

1999-11-01

Many creative approaches have been taken in the past for simulating the effect that atmospheric turbulence has on optical beams. Most of the experimental architectures have been complicated and consisted of many optical elements as well as moving components. These techniques have shown a modicum of success; however, they are not completely controllable or predictable. A benchtop technique for experimentally producing one important effect that atmospheric turbulence has on optical beams (phase distortion) is presented here. The system is completely controllable and predictable while accurately representing the statistical nature of the problem. Previous experimentation in optical processing through turbulent media has demonstrated that optical wavefront distortions can be produced via spatial light modulating (SLM) devices, and most turbulence models and experimental results indicate that turbulence can be represented as a phase fluctuation. The amplitude distributions in the resulting far field are primarily due to propagation of the phase. Operating a liquid crystal television (LCTV) in the ``phase- mostly'' mode, a phase fluctuation type model for turbulence is utilized in the present investigation, and a real-time experiment for demonstrating the effects was constructed. For an optical system to simulate optical wavefront distortions due to atmospheric turbulence, the following are required: (1)An optical element that modulates the phasefront of an optical beam (2)A model and a technique for generating spatially correlated turbulence simulating distributions (3)Hardware and software for displaying and manipulating the information addressing the optical phase modulation device The LCTV is ideal for this application. When operated in the ``phase-mostly'' mode some LCTVs can modulate the phasefront of an optical beam by as much as 2π and an algorithm for generating spatially correlated phase screens can be constructed via mathematical modeling software such as Mathcad[2]. The phase screens can then be manipulated and displayed on the LCTV using a computer with an appropriate framegrabber and software. The present system consists of an Epson liquid crystal television (which was optimized to modulate up to 2π of phase), a Macintosh IIci with a framegrabber card, a QuickTime movie consisting of multiple video frames of two dimensional arrays of spatially correlated grayscale images, and two polarizers. The movie is displayed on the television via the framegrabber, and the polarizers are used to operate the television in a mode that mostly modulates the spatial phase distribution of the optical wavefront. The frames of the movie are created using an accepted turbulence model for spatially correlated variations in index of refraction, and each subsequent frame of the movie is calculated following an accepted model for temporally varying turbulence. The model used for generating spatial functions or ``phase screens'' which simulate turbulence is the well known Kolmogorov model. These ``phase screens'' are then used, employing a Taylor's frozen flow model, to simulate temporally varying turbulence. A single ``phase screen'' is given a random velocity vector between 0 and.55 meters per second to simulate temporally varying turbulence. The system is used to distort optical beams as if the beams had propagated through a long pathlength of wavefront distorting medium, such as the atmosphere.

LPJ-GUESS Simulated Western North America Mid-latitude Vegetation Changes for 15-10 ka Using the CCSM3 TraCE Climate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

2017-12-01

The period from 15-10 ka was a time of rapid vegetation changes in North America. Continental ice sheets in northern North America were receding, exposing new habitat for vegetation, and regions distant from the ice sheets experienced equally large environmental changes. Northern hemisphere temperatures during this period were increasing, promoting transitions from cold-adapted to temperate plant taxa at mid-latitudes. Long, transient paleovegetation simulations can provide important information on vegetation responses to climate changes, including both the spatial dynamics and rates of species distribution changes over time. Paleovegetation simulations also can fill the spatial and temporal gaps in observed paleovegetation records (e.g., pollen data from lake sediments), allowing us to test hypotheses about past vegetation changes (e.g., the location of past refugia). We used the CCSM3 TraCE transient climate simulation as input for LPJ-GUESS, a general ecosystem model, to simulate vegetation changes from 15-10 ka for parts of western North America at mid-latitudes ( 35-55° N). For these simulations, LPJ-GUESS was parameterized to simulate key tree taxa for western North America (e.g., Pseudotsuga, Tsuga, Quercus, etc.). The CCSM3 TraCE transient climate simulation data were regridded onto a 10-minute grid of the study area. We analyzed the simulated spatial and temporal dynamics of these taxa and compared the simulated changes with observed paleovegetation changes recorded in pollen and plant macrofossil data (e.g., data from the Neotoma Paleoecology Database). In general, the LPJ-GUESS simulations reproduce the general patterns of paleovegetation responses to climate change, although the timing of some simulated vegetation changes do not match the observed paleovegetation record. We describe the areas and time periods with the greatest data-model agreement and disagreement, and discuss some of the strengths and weaknesses of the simulated climate and vegetation data. The magnitude and rate of the simulated past vegetation changes are compared with projected future vegetation changes for the region.

Parallel Multiscale Algorithms for Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norman, Michael L.

1997-01-01

Our goal is to develop software libraries and applications for astrophysical fluid dynamics simulations in multidimensions that will enable us to resolve the large spatial and temporal variations that inevitably arise due to gravity, fronts and microphysical phenomena. The software must run efficiently on parallel computers and be general enough to allow the incorporation of a wide variety of physics. Cosmological structure formation with realistic gas physics is the primary application driver in this work. Accurate simulations of e.g. galaxy formation require a spatial dynamic range (i.e., ratio of system scale to smallest resolved feature) of 104 or more in three dimensions in arbitrary topologies. We take this as our technical requirement. We have achieved, and in fact, surpassed these goals.

Remotely sensed soil moisture input to a hydrologic model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engman, E. T.; Kustas, W. P.; Wang, J. R.

1989-01-01

The possibility of using detailed spatial soil moisture maps as input to a runoff model was investigated. The water balance of a small drainage basin was simulated using a simple storage model. Aircraft microwave measurements of soil moisture were used to construct two-dimensional maps of the spatial distribution of the soil moisture. Data from overflights on different dates provided the temporal changes resulting from soil drainage and evapotranspiration. The study site and data collection are described, and the soil measurement data are given. The model selection is discussed, and the simulation results are summarized. It is concluded that a time series of soil moisture is a valuable new type of data for verifying model performance and for updating and correcting simulated streamflow.

Convective Self-Aggregation in Numerical Simulations: A Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, Allison A.; Emanuel, Kerry; Holloway, Christopher E.; Muller, Caroline

2017-11-01

Organized convection in the tropics occurs across a range of spatial and temporal scales and strongly influences cloud cover and humidity. One mode of organization found is "self-aggregation," in which moist convection spontaneously organizes into one or several isolated clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing. Self-aggregation is driven by interactions between clouds, moisture, radiation, surface fluxes, and circulation, and occurs in a wide variety of idealized simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium. Here we provide a review of convective self-aggregation in numerical simulations, including its character, causes, and effects. We describe the evolution of self-aggregation including its time and length scales and the physical mechanisms leading to its triggering and maintenance, and we also discuss possible links to climate and climate change.

Convective Self-Aggregation in Numerical Simulations: A Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, Allison A.; Emanuel, Kerry; Holloway, Christopher E.; Muller, Caroline

Organized convection in the tropics occurs across a range of spatial and temporal scales and strongly influences cloud cover and humidity. One mode of organization found is ``self-aggregation,'' in which moist convection spontaneously organizes into one or several isolated clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing. Self-aggregation is driven by interactions between clouds, moisture, radiation, surface fluxes, and circulation, and occurs in a wide variety of idealized simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium. Here we provide a review of convective self-aggregation in numerical simulations, including its character, causes, and effects. We describe the evolution of self-aggregation including its time and length scales and the physical mechanisms leading to its triggering and maintenance, and we also discuss possible links to climate and climate change.

Dynamic design of ecological monitoring networks for non-Gaussian spatio-temporal data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wikle, C.K.; Royle, J. Andrew

2005-01-01

Many ecological processes exhibit spatial structure that changes over time in a coherent, dynamical fashion. This dynamical component is often ignored in the design of spatial monitoring networks. Furthermore, ecological variables related to processes such as habitat are often non-Gaussian (e.g. Poisson or log-normal). We demonstrate that a simulation-based design approach can be used in settings where the data distribution is from a spatio-temporal exponential family. The key random component in the conditional mean function from this distribution is then a spatio-temporal dynamic process. Given the computational burden of estimating the expected utility of various designs in this setting, we utilize an extended Kalman filter approximation to facilitate implementation. The approach is motivated by, and demonstrated on, the problem of selecting sampling locations to estimate July brood counts in the prairie pothole region of the U.S.

Recent Advances on INSAR Temporal Decorrelation: Theory and Observations Using UAVSAR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lavalle, M.; Hensley, S.; Simard, M.

2011-01-01

We review our recent advances in understanding the role of temporal decorrelation in SAR interferometry and polarimetric SAR interferometry. We developed a physical model of temporal decorrelation based on Gaussian-statistic motion that varies along the vertical direction in forest canopies. Temporal decorrelation depends on structural parameters such as forest height, is sensitive to polarization and affects coherence amplitude and phase. A model of temporal-volume decorrelation valid for arbitrary spatial baseline is discussed. We tested the inversion of this model to estimate forest height from model simulations supported by JPL/UAVSAR data and lidar LVIS data. We found a general good agreement between forest height estimated from radar data and forest height estimated from lidar data.

SPAGETTA: a Multi-Purpose Gridded Stochastic Weather Generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubrovsky, M.; Huth, R.; Rotach, M. W.; Dabhi, H.

2017-12-01

SPAGETTA is a new multisite/gridded multivariate parametric stochastic weather generator (WG). Site-specific precipitation occurrence and amount are modelled by Markov chain and Gamma distribution, the non-precipitation variables are modelled by an autoregressive (AR) model conditioned on precipitation occurrence, and the spatial coherence of all variables is modelled following the Wilks' (2009) approach. SPAGETTA may be run in two modes. Mode 1: it is run as a classical WG, which is calibrated using weather series from multiple sites, and only then it may produce arbitrarily long synthetic series mimicking the spatial and temporal structure of the calibration data. To generate the weather series representing the future climate, the WG parameters are modified according to the climate change scenario, typically derived from GCM or RCM simulations. Mode 2: the user provides only basic information (not necessarily to be realistic) on the temporal and spatial auto-correlation structure of the weather variables and their mean annual cycle; the generator itself derives the parameters of the underlying AR model, which produces the multi-site weather series. Optionally, the user may add the spatially varying trend, which is superimposed to the synthetic series. The contribution consists of following parts: (a) Model of the WG. (b) Validation of WG in terms of the spatial temperature and precipitation characteristics, including characteristics of spatial hot/cold/dry/wet spells. (c) Results of the climate change impact experiment, in which the WG parameters representing the spatial and temporal variability are modified using the climate change scenarios and the effect on the above spatial validation indices is analysed. In this experiment, the WG is calibrated using the E-OBS gridded daily weather data for several European regions, and the climate change scenarios are derived from the selected RCM simulations (CORDEX database). (d) The second mode of operation will be demonstrated by results obtained while developing the methodology for assessing collective significance of trends in multi-site weather series. The performance of the proposed test statistics is assessed based on large number of realisations of synthetic series produced by WG assuming a given statistical structure and trend of the weather series.

Agro-hydrology and multi-temporal high-resolution remote sensing: toward an explicit spatial processes calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrant, S.; Gascoin, S.; Veloso, A.; Salmon-Monviola, J.; Claverie, M.; Rivalland, V.; Dedieu, G.; Demarez, V.; Ceschia, E.; Probst, J.-L.; Durand, P.; Bustillo, V.

2014-12-01

The growing availability of high-resolution satellite image series offers new opportunities in agro-hydrological research and modeling. We investigated the possibilities offered for improving crop-growth dynamic simulation with the distributed agro-hydrological model: topography-based nitrogen transfer and transformation (TNT2). We used a leaf area index (LAI) map series derived from 105 Formosat-2 (F2) images covering the period 2006-2010. The TNT2 model (Beaujouan et al., 2002), calibrated against discharge and in-stream nitrate fluxes for the period 1985-2001, was tested on the 2005-2010 data set (climate, land use, agricultural practices, and discharge and nitrate fluxes at the outlet). Data from the first year (2005) were used to initialize the hydrological model. A priori agricultural practices obtained from an extensive field survey, such as seeding date, crop cultivar, and amount of fertilizer, were used as input variables. Continuous values of LAI as a function of cumulative daily temperature were obtained at the crop-field level by fitting a double logistic equation against discrete satellite-derived LAI. Model predictions of LAI dynamics using the a priori input parameters displayed temporal shifts from those observed LAI profiles that are irregularly distributed in space (between field crops) and time (between years). By resetting the seeding date at the crop-field level, we have developed an optimization method designed to efficiently minimize this temporal shift and better fit the crop growth against both the spatial observations and crop production. This optimization of simulated LAI has a negligible impact on water budgets at the catchment scale (1 mm yr-1 on average) but a noticeable impact on in-stream nitrogen fluxes (around 12%), which is of interest when considering nitrate stream contamination issues and the objectives of TNT2 modeling. This study demonstrates the potential contribution of the forthcoming high spatial and temporal resolution products from the Sentinel-2 satellite mission for improving agro-hydrological modeling by constraining the spatial representation of crop productivity.

Agro-hydrology and multi temporal high resolution remote sensing: toward an explicit spatial processes calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrant, S.; Gascoin, S.; Veloso, A.; Salmon-Monviola, J.; Claverie, M.; Rivalland, V.; Dedieu, G.; Demarez, V.; Ceschia, E.; Probst, J.-L.; Durand, P.; Bustillo, V.

2014-07-01

The recent and forthcoming availability of high resolution satellite image series offers new opportunities in agro-hydrological research and modeling. We investigated the perspective offered by improving the crop growth dynamic simulation using the distributed agro-hydrological model, Topography based Nitrogen transfer and Transformation (TNT2), using LAI map series derived from 105 Formosat-2 (F2) images during the period 2006-2010. The TNT2 model (Beaujouan et al., 2002), calibrated with discharge and in-stream nitrate fluxes for the period 1985-2001, was tested on the 2006-2010 dataset (climate, land use, agricultural practices, discharge and nitrate fluxes at the outlet). A priori agricultural practices obtained from an extensive field survey such as seeding date, crop cultivar, and fertilizer amount were used as input variables. Continuous values of LAI as a function of cumulative daily temperature were obtained at the crop field level by fitting a double logistic equation against discrete satellite-derived LAI. Model predictions of LAI dynamics with a priori input parameters showed an temporal shift with observed LAI profiles irregularly distributed in space (between field crops) and time (between years). By re-setting seeding date at the crop field level, we proposed an optimization method to minimize efficiently this temporal shift and better fit the crop growth against the spatial observations as well as crop production. This optimization of simulated LAI has a negligible impact on water budget at the catchment scale (1 mm yr-1 in average) but a noticeable impact on in-stream nitrogen fluxes (around 12%) which is of interest considering nitrate stream contamination issues and TNT2 model objectives. This study demonstrates the contribution of forthcoming high spatial and temporal resolution products of Sentinel-2 satellite mission in improving agro-hydrological modeling by constraining the spatial representation of crop productivity.

Hierarchical stochastic modeling of large river ecosystems and fish growth across spatio-temporal scales and climate models: the Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Moran, Edward H.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.; Dey, Rima

2017-01-01

We present a hierarchical series of spatially decreasing and temporally increasing models to evaluate the uncertainty in the atmosphere – ocean global climate model (AOGCM) and the regional climate model (RCM) relative to the uncertainty in the somatic growth of the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). For effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, cli- mate output simulated by coarse-resolution AOGCMs and RCMs must be downscaled to basins to river hydrology to population response. One needs to transfer the information from these climate simulations down to the individual scale in a way that minimizes extrapolation and can account for spatio-temporal variability in the intervening stages. The goal is a framework to determine whether, given uncertainties in the climate models and the biological response, meaningful inference can still be made. The non-linear downscaling of climate information to the river scale requires that one realistically account for spatial and temporal variability across scale. Our down- scaling procedure includes the use of fixed/calibrated hydrological flow and temperature models coupled with a stochastically parameterized sturgeon bioenergetics model. We show that, although there is a large amount of uncertainty associated with both the climate model output and the fish growth process, one can establish significant differences in fish growth distributions between models, and between future and current climates for a given model.

Multiple-Parameter Estimation Method Based on Spatio-Temporal 2-D Processing for Bistatic MIMO Radar

PubMed Central

Yang, Shouguo; Li, Yong; Zhang, Kunhui; Tang, Weiping

2015-01-01

A novel spatio-temporal 2-dimensional (2-D) processing method that can jointly estimate the transmitting-receiving azimuth and Doppler frequency for bistatic multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) radar in the presence of spatial colored noise and an unknown number of targets is proposed. In the temporal domain, the cross-correlation of the matched filters’ outputs for different time-delay sampling is used to eliminate the spatial colored noise. In the spatial domain, the proposed method uses a diagonal loading method and subspace theory to estimate the direction of departure (DOD) and direction of arrival (DOA), and the Doppler frequency can then be accurately estimated through the estimation of the DOD and DOA. By skipping target number estimation and the eigenvalue decomposition (EVD) of the data covariance matrix estimation and only requiring a one-dimensional search, the proposed method achieves low computational complexity. Furthermore, the proposed method is suitable for bistatic MIMO radar with an arbitrary transmitted and received geometrical configuration. The correction and efficiency of the proposed method are verified by computer simulation results. PMID:26694385

Multiple-Parameter Estimation Method Based on Spatio-Temporal 2-D Processing for Bistatic MIMO Radar.

PubMed

Yang, Shouguo; Li, Yong; Zhang, Kunhui; Tang, Weiping

2015-12-14

A novel spatio-temporal 2-dimensional (2-D) processing method that can jointly estimate the transmitting-receiving azimuth and Doppler frequency for bistatic multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) radar in the presence of spatial colored noise and an unknown number of targets is proposed. In the temporal domain, the cross-correlation of the matched filters' outputs for different time-delay sampling is used to eliminate the spatial colored noise. In the spatial domain, the proposed method uses a diagonal loading method and subspace theory to estimate the direction of departure (DOD) and direction of arrival (DOA), and the Doppler frequency can then be accurately estimated through the estimation of the DOD and DOA. By skipping target number estimation and the eigenvalue decomposition (EVD) of the data covariance matrix estimation and only requiring a one-dimensional search, the proposed method achieves low computational complexity. Furthermore, the proposed method is suitable for bistatic MIMO radar with an arbitrary transmitted and received geometrical configuration. The correction and efficiency of the proposed method are verified by computer simulation results.

Simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet over two glacial-interglacial cycles: investigating a sub-ice-shelf melt parameterization and relative sea level forcing in an ice-sheet-ice-shelf model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradley, Sarah L.; Reerink, Thomas J.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Helsen, Michiel M.

2018-05-01

Observational evidence, including offshore moraines and sediment cores, confirm that at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) expanded to a significantly larger spatial extent than seen at present, grounding into Baffin Bay and out onto the continental shelf break. Given this larger spatial extent and its close proximity to the neighbouring Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) and Innuitian Ice Sheet (IIS), it is likely these ice sheets will have had a strong non-local influence on the spatial and temporal behaviour of the GrIS. Most previous paleo ice-sheet modelling simulations recreated an ice sheet that either did not extend out onto the continental shelf or utilized a simplified marine ice parameterization which did not fully include the effect of ice shelves or neglected the sensitivity of the GrIS to this non-local bedrock signal from the surrounding ice sheets. In this paper, we investigated the evolution of the GrIS over the two most recent glacial-interglacial cycles (240 ka BP to the present day) using the ice-sheet-ice-shelf model IMAU-ICE. We investigated the solid earth influence of the LIS and IIS via an offline relative sea level (RSL) forcing generated by a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model. The RSL forcing governed the spatial and temporal pattern of sub-ice-shelf melting via changes in the water depth below the ice shelves. In the ensemble of simulations, at the glacial maximums, the GrIS coalesced with the IIS to the north and expanded to the continental shelf break to the southwest but remained too restricted to the northeast. In terms of the global mean sea level contribution, at the Last Interglacial (LIG) and LGM the ice sheet added 1.46 and -2.59 m, respectively. This LGM contribution by the GrIS is considerably higher (˜ 1.26 m) than most previous studies whereas the contribution to the LIG highstand is lower (˜ 0.7 m). The spatial and temporal behaviour of the northern margin was highly variable in all simulations, controlled by the sub-ice-shelf melting which was dictated by the RSL forcing and the glacial history of the IIS and LIS. In contrast, the southwestern part of the ice sheet was insensitive to these forcings, with a uniform response in all simulations controlled by the surface air temperature, derived from ice cores.

How Many Grid Points are Required for Time Accurate Simulations Scheme Selection and Scale-Discriminant Stabilization

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-24

spatial concerns: ¤ how well are gradients captured? (resolution requirement) spatial/temporal concerns: ¤ dispersion and dissipation error...distribution is unlimited. Gradient Capture vs. Resolution: Single Mode FFT: Solution/Derivative: Convergence: f x( )= sin(x) with x∈[0,2π ] df dx...distribution is unlimited. Gradient Capture vs. Resolution: 
 Multiple Modes FFT: Solution/Derivative: Convergence: 6 __ CD02 __ CD04 __ CD06

COMPARING SIMULATED AND EXPERIMENTAL HYSTERETIC TWO- PHASE TRANSIENT FLUID FLOW PHENOMENA

EPA Science Inventory

A hysteretic model for two-phase permeability (k)-saturation (S)-pressure (P) relations is outlined that accounts for effects of nonwetting fluid entrapment. The model can be employed in unsaturated fluid flow computer codes to predict temporal and spatial fluid distributions. Co...

Simulating Life

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinclair, Michael; Dauerty, Helene; Alber, Mark

2016-01-01

Biomodeling is the study of the structures and behaviors of interacting biological entities such as molecules, cells, or organisms. While physical and chemical processes give rise to various spatial and temporal structures, even the simplest biological phenomenon is infinitely more complex (Kling 2004). Over the past decade, much of biomodeling…

Assessment of the Spatial and Temporal Variations of Water Quality for Agricultural Lands with Crop Rotation in China by Using a HYPE Model

PubMed Central

Yin, Yunxing; Jiang, Sanyuan; Pers, Charlotta; Yang, Xiaoying; Liu, Qun; Yuan, Jin; Yao, Mingxing; He, Yi; Luo, Xingzhang; Zheng, Zheng

2016-01-01

Many water quality models have been successfully used worldwide to predict nutrient losses from anthropogenically impacted catchments, but hydrological and nutrient simulations with limited data are difficult considering the transfer of model parameters and complication of model calibration and validation. This study aims: (i) to assess the performance capabilities of a new and relatively more advantageous model, namely, Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE), that simulates stream flow and nutrient load in agricultural areas by using a multi-site and multi-objective parameter calibration method and (ii) to investigate the temporal and spatial variations of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorous (TP) concentrations and loads with crop rotation by using the model for the first time. A parameter estimation tool (PEST) was used to calibrate parameters. Results show that the parameters related to the effective soil porosity were highly sensitive to hydrological modeling. N balance was largely controlled by soil denitrification processes. P balance was influenced by the sedimentation rate and production/decay of P in rivers and lakes. The model reproduced the temporal and spatial variations of discharge and TN/TP relatively well in both calibration (2006–2008) and validation (2009–2010) periods. Among the obtained data, the lowest Nash-Suttclife efficiency of discharge, daily TN load, and daily TP load were 0.74, 0.51, and 0.54, respectively. The seasonal variations of daily TN concentrations in the entire simulation period were insufficient, indicated that crop rotation changed the timing and amount of N output. Monthly TN and TP simulation yields revealed that nutrient outputs were abundant in summer in terms of the corresponding discharge. The area-weighted TN and TP load annual yields in five years showed that nutrient loads were extremely high along Hong and Ru rivers, especially in agricultural lands. PMID:26999184

MULTISCALE ADAPTIVE SMOOTHING MODELS FOR THE HEMODYNAMIC RESPONSE FUNCTION IN FMRI*

PubMed Central

Wang, Jiaping; Zhu, Hongtu; Fan, Jianqing; Giovanello, Kelly; Lin, Weili

2012-01-01

In the event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data analysis, there is an extensive interest in accurately and robustly estimating the hemodynamic response function (HRF) and its associated statistics (e.g., the magnitude and duration of the activation). Most methods to date are developed in the time domain and they have utilized almost exclusively the temporal information of fMRI data without accounting for the spatial information. The aim of this paper is to develop a multiscale adaptive smoothing model (MASM) in the frequency domain by integrating the spatial and temporal information to adaptively and accurately estimate HRFs pertaining to each stimulus sequence across all voxels in a three-dimensional (3D) volume. We use two sets of simulation studies and a real data set to examine the finite sample performance of MASM in estimating HRFs. Our real and simulated data analyses confirm that MASM outperforms several other state-of-art methods, such as the smooth finite impulse response (sFIR) model. PMID:24533041

Adaptive temporal refinement in injection molding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karyofylli, Violeta; Schmitz, Mauritius; Hopmann, Christian; Behr, Marek

2018-05-01

Mold filling is an injection molding stage of great significance, because many defects of the plastic components (e.g. weld lines, burrs or insufficient filling) can occur during this process step. Therefore, it plays an important role in determining the quality of the produced parts. Our goal is the temporal refinement in the vicinity of the evolving melt front, in the context of 4D simplex-type space-time grids [1, 2]. This novel discretization method has an inherent flexibility to employ completely unstructured meshes with varying levels of resolution both in spatial dimensions and in the time dimension, thus allowing the use of local time-stepping during the simulations. This can lead to a higher simulation precision, while preserving calculation efficiency. A 3D benchmark case, which concerns the filling of a plate-shaped geometry, is used for verifying our numerical approach [3]. The simulation results obtained with the fully unstructured space-time discretization are compared to those obtained with the standard space-time method and to Moldflow simulation results. This example also serves for providing reliable timing measurements and the efficiency aspects of the filling simulation of complex 3D molds while applying adaptive temporal refinement.

Spatial and temporal skin blood volume and saturation estimation using a multispectral snapshot imaging camera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ewerlöf, Maria; Larsson, Marcus; Salerud, E. Göran

2017-02-01

Hyperspectral imaging (HSI) can estimate the spatial distribution of skin blood oxygenation, using visible to near-infrared light. HSI oximeters often use a liquid-crystal tunable filter, an acousto-optic tunable filter or mechanically adjustable filter wheels, which has too long response/switching times to monitor tissue hemodynamics. This work aims to evaluate a multispectral snapshot imaging system to estimate skin blood volume and oxygen saturation with high temporal and spatial resolution. We use a snapshot imager, the xiSpec camera (MQ022HG-IM-SM4X4-VIS, XIMEA), having 16 wavelength-specific Fabry-Perot filters overlaid on the custom CMOS-chip. The spectral distribution of the bands is however substantially overlapping, which needs to be taken into account for an accurate analysis. An inverse Monte Carlo analysis is performed using a two-layered skin tissue model, defined by epidermal thickness, haemoglobin concentration and oxygen saturation, melanin concentration and spectrally dependent reduced-scattering coefficient, all parameters relevant for human skin. The analysis takes into account the spectral detector response of the xiSpec camera. At each spatial location in the field-of-view, we compare the simulated output to the detected diffusively backscattered spectra to find the best fit. The imager is evaluated for spatial and temporal variations during arterial and venous occlusion protocols applied to the forearm. Estimated blood volume changes and oxygenation maps at 512x272 pixels show values that are comparable to reference measurements performed in contact with the skin tissue. We conclude that the snapshot xiSpec camera, paired with an inverse Monte Carlo algorithm, permits us to use this sensor for spatial and temporal measurement of varying physiological parameters, such as skin tissue blood volume and oxygenation.

Spatio-temporal evolution of the non-resonant instability in shock precursors of young supernova remnants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobzar, Oleh; Niemiec, Jacek; Pohl, Martin; Bohdan, Artem

2017-08-01

A non-resonant cosmic ray (CR) current-driven instability may operate in the shock precursors of young supernova remnants and be responsible for magnetic-field amplification, plasma heating and turbulence. Earlier simulations demonstrated magnetic-field amplification, and in kinetic studies a reduction of the relative drift between CRs and thermal plasma was observed as backreaction. However, all published simulations used periodic boundary conditions, which do not account for mass conservation in decelerating flows and only allow the temporal development to be studied. Here we report results of fully kinetic particle-in-cell simulations with open boundaries that permit inflow of plasma on one side of the simulation box and outflow at the other end, hence allowing an investigation of both the temporal and the spatial development of the instability. Magnetic-field amplification proceeds as in studies with periodic boundaries and, observed here for the first time, the reduction of relative drifts causes the formation of a shock-like compression structure at which a fraction of the plasma ions are reflected. Turbulent electric field generated by the non-resonant instability inelastically scatters CRs, modifying and anisotropizing their energy distribution. Spatial CR scattering is compatible with Bohm diffusion. Electromagnetic turbulence leads to significant non-adiabatic heating of the background plasma maintaining bulk equipartition between ions and electrons. The highest temperatures are reached at sites of large-amplitude electrostatic fields. Ion spectra show supra-thermal tails resulting from stochastic scattering in the turbulent electric field. Together, these modifications in the plasma flow will affect the properties of the shock and particle acceleration there.

[Analysis on Emission Inventory and Temporal-Spatial Characteristics of Pollutants from Key Coal-Fired Stationary Sources in Jiangsu Province by On-Line Monitoring Data].

PubMed

Zhang, Ying-jie; Kong, Shao-fei; Tang, Li-li; Zhao, Tian-liang; Han, Yong-xiang; Yu, Hong-xia

2015-08-01

Emission inventory of air pollutants is the key to understand the spatial and temporal distribution of atmospheric pollutants and to accurately simulate the ambient air quality. The currently established emission inventories are still limited on spatial and temporal resolution which greatly influences the numerical prediction accuracy of air quality. With coal-fired stationary sources considered, this study analyzed the total emissions and monthly variation of main pollutants from them in 2012 as the basic year, by collecting the on-line monitoring data for power plants and atmospheric verifiable accounting tables of Jiangsu Province. Emission factors in documents are summarized and adopted. Results indicated that the emission amounts of SO2, NOx, TSP, PM10, PM2.5, CO, EC, OC, NMVOC and NH3 were 106.0, 278.3, 40.9, 32.7, 21.7, 582.0, 3.6, 2.5, 17.3 and 2.2 kt, respectively. They presented monthly variation with high emission amounts in February, March, July, August and December and low emissions in September and October. The reason may be that more coal are consumed which leads to the increase of pollutants emitted, to satisfy the needs, of heat and electricity power supply in cold and hot periods. Local emission factors are needed for emission inventory studies and the monthly variation should be considered when emission inventories are used in air quality simulation.

An Adaptive Multiscale Finite Element Method for Large Scale Simulations

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-28

Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Abstract Hypersonic vehicles are subjected to extreme acoustic, thermal and mechanical loading with strong spatial and temporal...07/15/2012 Reporting Period End Date 07/14/2015 Abstract Hypersonic vehicles are subjected to extreme acoustic, thermal and mechanical loading with...gradients and for extended periods of time. Long duration, 3-D simulations of non-linear response of these vehicles , is prohibitively expensive using

Nonparametric Bayesian Segmentation of a Multivariate Inhomogeneous Space-Time Poisson Process.

PubMed

Ding, Mingtao; He, Lihan; Dunson, David; Carin, Lawrence

2012-12-01

A nonparametric Bayesian model is proposed for segmenting time-evolving multivariate spatial point process data. An inhomogeneous Poisson process is assumed, with a logistic stick-breaking process (LSBP) used to encourage piecewise-constant spatial Poisson intensities. The LSBP explicitly favors spatially contiguous segments, and infers the number of segments based on the observed data. The temporal dynamics of the segmentation and of the Poisson intensities are modeled with exponential correlation in time, implemented in the form of a first-order autoregressive model for uniformly sampled discrete data, and via a Gaussian process with an exponential kernel for general temporal sampling. We consider and compare two different inference techniques: a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, which has relatively high computational complexity; and an approximate and efficient variational Bayesian analysis. The model is demonstrated with a simulated example and a real example of space-time crime events in Cincinnati, Ohio, USA.

High Resolution Mapping of Wetland Ecosystems SPOT-5 Take 5 for Evaluation of Sentinel-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ade, Christiana; Hestir, Erin L.; Khanna, Shruti; Ustin, Susan L.

2016-08-01

Around the world wetlands are critical to human societies and ecosystems, providing services such as habitat, water, food and fiber, flood and nutrient control, and cultural, recreational and religious value. However, the dynamic nature of tidal wetlands makes measuring ecosystem responses to climate change, seasonal inundation regimes, and anthropogenic disturbance from current and previous Earth observing sensors challenging due to limited spatial and temporal resolutions. Sentinel- 2 will directly address this challenge by providing high spatial resolution data with frequent revisit time. This pilot study aims to develop methodology for future Sentinel-2 products and highlight the variability of tidal wetland ecosystems, thereby demonstrating the necessity of improved spatial particularly temporal resolution. Here the simulated Sentinel-2 dataset from the SPOT-5 Take 5 experiment reveals the capacity of the new sensor to simultaneously assess tidal wetland ecosystem phenology and water quality in inland waters.

DNS of Low-Pressure Turbine Cascade Flows with Elevated Inflow Turbulence Using a Discontinuous-Galerkin Spectral-Element Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garai, Anirban; Diosady, Laslo T.; Murman, Scott M.; Madavan, Nateri K.

2016-01-01

Recent progress towards developing a new computational capability for accurate and efficient high-fidelity direct numerical simulation (DNS) and large-eddy simulation (LES) of turbomachinery is described. This capability is based on an entropy- stable Discontinuous-Galerkin spectral-element approach that extends to arbitrarily high orders of spatial and temporal accuracy, and is implemented in a computationally efficient manner on a modern high performance computer architecture. An inflow turbulence generation procedure based on a linear forcing approach has been incorporated in this framework and DNS conducted to study the effect of inflow turbulence on the suction- side separation bubble in low-pressure turbine (LPT) cascades. The T106 series of airfoil cascades in both lightly (T106A) and highly loaded (T106C) configurations at exit isentropic Reynolds numbers of 60,000 and 80,000, respectively, are considered. The numerical simulations are performed using 8th-order accurate spatial and 4th-order accurate temporal discretization. The changes in separation bubble topology due to elevated inflow turbulence is captured by the present method and the physical mechanisms leading to the changes are explained. The present results are in good agreement with prior numerical simulations but some expected discrepancies with the experimental data for the T106C case are noted and discussed.

On the discretization and control of an SEIR epidemic model with a periodic impulsive vaccination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alonso-Quesada, S.; De la Sen, M.; Ibeas, A.

2017-01-01

This paper deals with the discretization and control of an SEIR epidemic model. Such a model describes the transmission of an infectious disease among a time-varying host population. The model assumes mortality from causes related to the disease. Our study proposes a discretization method including a free-design parameter to be adjusted for guaranteeing the positivity of the resulting discrete-time model. Such a method provides a discrete-time model close to the continuous-time one without the need for the sampling period to be as small as other commonly used discretization methods require. This fact makes possible the design of impulsive vaccination control strategies with less burden of measurements and related computations if one uses the proposed instead of other discretization methods. The proposed discretization method and the impulsive vaccination strategy designed on the resulting discretized model are the main novelties of the paper. The paper includes (i) the analysis of the positivity of the obtained discrete-time SEIR model, (ii) the study of stability of the disease-free equilibrium point of a normalized version of such a discrete-time model and (iii) the existence and the attractivity of a globally asymptotically stable disease-free periodic solution under a periodic impulsive vaccination. Concretely, the exposed and infectious subpopulations asymptotically converge to zero as time tends to infinity while the normalized subpopulations of susceptible and recovered by immunization individuals oscillate in the context of such a solution. Finally, a numerical example illustrates the theoretic results.

Molecular dynamics modeling of periodic nanostructuring of metals with a short UV laser pulse under spatial confinement by a water layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, D. S.; Blumenstein, A.; Ihlemann, J.; Simon, P.; Garcia, M. E.; Rethfeld, B.

2017-12-01

The possibility of material surfaces restructuring on the nanoscale due to ultrashort laser pulses has recently found a number of practical applications. It was found experimentally that under spatial confinement due to a liquid layer atop the surface, one can achieve even finer and cleaner structures as compared to that in air or in vacuum. The mechanism of the materials restructuring under the liquid confinement, however, is not clear and its experimental study is limited by the extreme conditions realized during the intense and localized laser energy deposition that takes place on nanometer spatial and picosecond time-scales. In this theoretical work, we suggest a molecular dynamics-based approach that is capable of simulating the processes of periodic nanostructuring with ultrashort UV laser pulse on metals. The theoretical results of the simulations are directly compared with the experimental data on the same spatial and temporal scales.

Modeling the spatial-temporal dynamics of net primary production in Yangtze River Basin using IBIS model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Z.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Zhu, Q.; Wei, X.; Jiang, Z.; Zhou, G.; Zhang, X.; Han, J.

2011-01-01

The climate change has significantly affected the carbon cycling in Yangtze River Basin. To better understand the alternation pattern for the relationship between carbon cycling and climate change, the net primary production (NPP) were simulated in the study area from 1956 to 2006 by using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS). The results showed that the average annual NPP per square meter was about 0.518 kg C in Yangtze River Basin. The high NPP levels were mainly distributed in the southeast area of Sichuan, and the highest value reached 1.05 kg C/m2. The NPP increased based on the simulated temporal trends. The spatiotemporal variability of the NPP in the vegetation types was obvious, and it was depended on the climate and soil condition. We found the drought climate was one of critical factor that impacts the alterations of the NPP in the area by the simulation. ?? 2011 IEEE.

Modelling temporal and spatial dynamics of benthic fauna in North-West-European shelf seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lessin, Gennadi; Bruggeman, Jorn; Artioli, Yuri; Butenschön, Momme; Blackford, Jerry

2017-04-01

Benthic zones of shallow shelf seas receive high amounts of organic material. Physical processes such as resuspension, as well as complex transformations mediated by diverse faunal and microbial communities, define fate of this material, which can be returned to the water column, reworked within sediments or ultimately buried. In recent years, numerical models of various complexity and serving different goals have been developed and applied in order to better understand and predict dynamics of benthic processes. ERSEM includes explicit parameterisations of several groups of benthic biota, which makes it particularly applicable for studies of benthic biodiversity, biological interactions within sediments and benthic-pelagic coupling. To assess model skill in reproducing temporal (inter-annual and seasonal) dynamics of major benthic macrofaunal groups, 1D model simulation results were compared with data from the Western Channel Observatory (WCO) benthic survey. The benthic model was forced with organic matter deposition rates inferred from observed phytoplankton abundance and model parameters were subsequently recalibrated. Based on model results and WCO data comparison, deposit-feeders exert clear seasonal variability, while for suspension-feeders inter-annual variability is more pronounced. Spatial distribution of benthic fauna was investigated using results of a full-scale NEMO-ERSEM hindcast simulation of the North-West European Shelf Seas area, covering the period of 1981-2014. Results suggest close relationship between spatial distribution of biomass of benthic faunal functional groups in relation to bathymetry, hydrodynamic conditions and organic matter supply. Our work highlights that it is feasible to construct, implement and validate models that explicitly include functional groups of benthic macrofauna. Moreover, the modelling approach delivers detailed information on benthic biogeochemistry and food-web at spatial and temporal scales that are unavailable through other sources but highly relevant to marine management, planning and policy.

Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Rachel; Acevedo, William; Soulard, Christopher E.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

2015-01-01

Spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation models of land use and land cover (LULC) increase our ability to assess regional landscape characteristics and associated carbon dynamics across multiple scenarios. By characterizing appropriate spatial attributes such as forest age and land-use distribution, a state-and-transition model can more effectively simulate the pattern and spread of LULC changes. This manuscript describes the methods and input parameters of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a customized state-and-transition simulation model utilized to assess the relative impacts of LULC on carbon stocks for the conterminous U.S. The methods and input parameters are spatially explicit and describe initial conditions (strata, state classes and forest age), spatial multipliers, and carbon stock density. Initial conditions were derived from harmonization of multi-temporal data characterizing changes in land use as well as land cover. Harmonization combines numerous national-level datasets through a cell-based data fusion process to generate maps of primary LULC categories. Forest age was parameterized using data from the North American Carbon Program and spatially-explicit maps showing the locations of past disturbances (i.e. wildfire and harvest). Spatial multipliers were developed to spatially constrain the location of future LULC transitions. Based on distance-decay theory, maps were generated to guide the placement of changes related to forest harvest, agricultural intensification/extensification, and urbanization. We analyze the spatially-explicit input parameters with a sensitivity analysis, by showing how LUCAS responds to variations in the model input. This manuscript uses Mediterranean California as a regional subset to highlight local to regional aspects of land change, which demonstrates the utility of LUCAS at many scales and applications.

Investigation of Kibble-Zurek Quench Dynamics in a Spin-1 Ferromagnetic BEC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anquez, Martin; Robbins, Bryce; Hoang, Thai; Yang, Xiaoyun; Land, Benjamin; Hamley, Christopher; Chapman, Michael

2014-05-01

We study the temporal evolution of spin populations in small spin-1 87Rb condensates following a slow quench. A ferromagnetic spin-1 BEC exhibits a second-order gapless (quantum) phase transition due to a competition between the magnetic and collisional spin interaction energies. The dynamics of slow quenches through the critical point are predicted to exhibit universal power-law scaling as a function of quench speed. In spatially extended condensates, these excitations are revealed as spatial spin domains. In small condensates, the excitations are manifest in the temporal evolution of the spin populations, illustrating a Kibble-Zurek type scaling. We will present the results of our investigation and compare them to full quantum simulations of the system.

Simulating Mercury And Methyl Mercury Stream Concentrations At Multiple Scales in a Wetland Influenced Coastal Plain Watershed (McTier Creek, SC, USA)

EPA Science Inventory

Use of Mechanistic Models to?Improve Understanding: Differential, mass balance, process-based Spatial and temporal resolution Necessary simplifications of system complexity Combing field monitoring and modeling efforts Balance between capturing complexity and maintaining...

MODELED MESOSCALE METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS WITH FOUR-DIMENSIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION IN REGIONAL SCALE AIR QUALITY MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

This paper addresses the need to increase the temporal and spatial resolution of meteorological data currently used in air quality simulation models, AQSMs. ransport and diffusion parameters including mixing heights and stability used in regulatory air quality dispersion models a...

Using a Freshwater Lake Model Coupled with WRF for Dynamical Downscaling Applications

EPA Science Inventory

The ability to represent extremes in temperature and precipitation in regional climates (including those affected by inland lakes) has become an area of focus as regional climate models (RCMs) simulate smaller temporal and spatial scales. When using the Weather Research and Fore...

Spatially and Temporally Detailed Modeling of Water Quality in Narragansett Bay

EPA Science Inventory

Nutrient loading to Narragansett Bay has led to eutrophication, resulting in hypoxia and anoxia, finfish and shellfish kills, loss of seagrass, and reductions in the recreational and economic value of the Bay. We are developing a model that simulates the effects of external nutri...

Metamodeling Techniques to Aid in the Aggregation Process of Large Hierarchical Simulation Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-08-01

Level Outputs Campaign Level Model Campaign Level Outputs Aggregation Metamodeling Complexity (Spatial, Temporal, etc.) Others? Apply VRT (type......reduction, are called variance reduction techniques ( VRT ) [Law, 2006]. The implementation of some type of VRT can prove to be a very valuable tool

Modeling Spectral Turnovers in Interplanetary Shocks Observed by ULYSSES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Summerlin, E. J.; Baring, M. G.

2009-12-01

Interplanetary shocks in the heliosphere provide excellent test cases for the simulation and theory of particle acceleration at shocks thanks to the presence of in-situ measurements and a relatively well understood initial particle distribution. The Monte-Carlo test particle simulation employed in this work has been previously used to study injection and acceleration from thermal energies into the high energy power-law tail at co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs) in the heliosphere presuming a steady state planar shock (Summerlin & Baring, 2006, Baring and Summerlin, 2008). These simulated power-spectra compare favorably with in-situ measurements from the ULYSSES spacecraft below 60 keV. However, to effectively model the high energy exponential cutoff at energies above 60 keV observed in these distributions, simulations must apply spatial or temporal constraints to the acceleration process. This work studies the effects of a variety of temporal and spatial co! nstraints (including spatial constraints on the turbulent region around the shock as determined by magnetometer data, spatial constraints related to the scale size of the shock and constraints on the acceleration time based on the known limits for the shock's lifetime) on the high energy cut-off and compares simulated particle spectra to those observed by the ULYSSES HI-SCALE instrument in an effort to determine which constraint is creating the cut-off and using that constraining parameter to determine additional information about the shock that can not, normally, be determined by a single data point, such as the spatial extent of the shock or how long the shock has been propagating through the heliosphere before it encounters the spacecraft. Shocks observed by multiple spacecraft will be of particular interest as their parameters will be better constrained than shocks observed by only one spacecraft. To achieve these goals, the simulation will be modified to include the re! trodictive approach of Jones (1978) to accurately track time spent dow nstream while maintaining, to large degree, the large dynamic range and short run times that make this type of simulation so attractive. This work is inspired by examinations of acceleration cutoffs in SEP events performed by various authors (see Li et al., 2009, and references therein), and it is hoped that this work will pave the way for a multi-species analysis similar to theirs that should greatly enhance the information one can derive about shocks based on individual observations.

Spatial-temporal modeling of malware propagation in networks.

PubMed

Chen, Zesheng; Ji, Chuanyi

2005-09-01

Network security is an important task of network management. One threat to network security is malware (malicious software) propagation. One type of malware is called topological scanning that spreads based on topology information. The focus of this work is on modeling the spread of topological malwares, which is important for understanding their potential damages, and for developing countermeasures to protect the network infrastructure. Our model is motivated by probabilistic graphs, which have been widely investigated in machine learning. We first use a graphical representation to abstract the propagation of malwares that employ different scanning methods. We then use a spatial-temporal random process to describe the statistical dependence of malware propagation in arbitrary topologies. As the spatial dependence is particularly difficult to characterize, the problem becomes how to use simple (i.e., biased) models to approximate the spatially dependent process. In particular, we propose the independent model and the Markov model as simple approximations. We conduct both theoretical analysis and extensive simulations on large networks using both real measurements and synthesized topologies to test the performance of the proposed models. Our results show that the independent model can capture temporal dependence and detailed topology information and, thus, outperforms the previous models, whereas the Markov model incorporates a certain spatial dependence and, thus, achieves a greater accuracy in characterizing both transient and equilibrium behaviors of malware propagation.

Mean field analysis of a spatial stochastic model of a gene regulatory network.

PubMed

Sturrock, M; Murray, P J; Matzavinos, A; Chaplain, M A J

2015-10-01

A gene regulatory network may be defined as a collection of DNA segments which interact with each other indirectly through their RNA and protein products. Such a network is said to contain a negative feedback loop if its products inhibit gene transcription, and a positive feedback loop if a gene product promotes its own production. Negative feedback loops can create oscillations in mRNA and protein levels while positive feedback loops are primarily responsible for signal amplification. It is often the case in real biological systems that both negative and positive feedback loops operate in parameter regimes that result in low copy numbers of gene products. In this paper we investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics of a single feedback loop in a eukaryotic cell. We first develop a simplified spatial stochastic model of a canonical feedback system (either positive or negative). Using a Gillespie's algorithm, we compute sample trajectories and analyse their corresponding statistics. We then derive a system of equations that describe the spatio-temporal evolution of the stochastic means. Subsequently, we examine the spatially homogeneous case and compare the results of numerical simulations with the spatially explicit case. Finally, using a combination of steady-state analysis and data clustering techniques, we explore model behaviour across a subregion of the parameter space that is difficult to access experimentally and compare the parameter landscape of our spatio-temporal and spatially-homogeneous models.

Effects of input uncertainty on cross-scale crop modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waha, Katharina; Huth, Neil; Carberry, Peter

2014-05-01

The quality of data on climate, soils and agricultural management in the tropics is in general low or data is scarce leading to uncertainty in process-based modeling of cropping systems. Process-based crop models are common tools for simulating crop yields and crop production in climate change impact studies, studies on mitigation and adaptation options or food security studies. Crop modelers are concerned about input data accuracy as this, together with an adequate representation of plant physiology processes and choice of model parameters, are the key factors for a reliable simulation. For example, assuming an error in measurements of air temperature, radiation and precipitation of ± 0.2°C, ± 2 % and ± 3 % respectively, Fodor & Kovacs (2005) estimate that this translates into an uncertainty of 5-7 % in yield and biomass simulations. In our study we seek to answer the following questions: (1) are there important uncertainties in the spatial variability of simulated crop yields on the grid-cell level displayed on maps, (2) are there important uncertainties in the temporal variability of simulated crop yields on the aggregated, national level displayed in time-series, and (3) how does the accuracy of different soil, climate and management information influence the simulated crop yields in two crop models designed for use at different spatial scales? The study will help to determine whether more detailed information improves the simulations and to advise model users on the uncertainty related to input data. We analyse the performance of the point-scale crop model APSIM (Keating et al., 2003) and the global scale crop model LPJmL (Bondeau et al., 2007) with different climate information (monthly and daily) and soil conditions (global soil map and African soil map) under different agricultural management (uniform and variable sowing dates) for the low-input maize-growing areas in Burkina Faso/West Africa. We test the models' response to different levels of input data from very little to very detailed information, and compare the models' abilities to represent the spatial variability and temporal variability in crop yields. We display the uncertainty in crop yield simulations from different input data and crop models in Taylor diagrams which are a graphical summary of the similarity between simulations and observations (Taylor, 2001). The observed spatial variability can be represented well from both models (R=0.6-0.8) but APSIM predicts higher spatial variability than LPJmL due to its sensitivity to soil parameters. Simulations with the same crop model, climate and sowing dates have similar statistics and therefore similar skill to reproduce the observed spatial variability. Soil data is less important for the skill of a crop model to reproduce the observed spatial variability. However, the uncertainty in simulated spatial variability from the two crop models is larger than from input data settings and APSIM is more sensitive to input data then LPJmL. Even with a detailed, point-scale crop model and detailed input data it is difficult to capture the complexity and diversity in maize cropping systems.

Modelling the Influence of Long-Term Hydraulic Conditions on Juvenile Salmon Habitats in AN Upland Scotish River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fabris, L.; Malcolm, I.; Millidine, K. J.; Buddendorf, B.; Tetzlaff, D.; Soulsby, C.

2015-12-01

Wild Atlantic salmon populations in Scottish rivers constitute an important economic and recreational resource, as well as being a key component of biodiversity. Salmon have very specific habitat requirements at different life stages and their distribution is therefore strongly influenced by a complex suite of biological and physical controls. Previous research has shown that stream hydrodynamics and channel morphology have a strong influence on the distribution and density of juvenile salmon. Here, we utilise a unique 20 year data set of spatially distributed juvenile salmon densities derived from annual electro-fishing surveys in an upland Scottish river. We examine to what extent the spatial and temporal variability of in-stream hydraulics regulates the spatial and temporal variability in the performance and density of juvenile salmon. A 2-D hydraulic model (River2D) is used to simulate water velocity and water depth under different flow conditions for seven different electro-fishing sites. The selected sites represent different hydromorphological environments including plane-bed, step-pool and pool riffle reaches. The bathymetry of each site was characterised using a total station providing an accurate DTM of the bed, and hydraulic simulations were driven by 20 year stream flow records. Habitat suitability curves, based on direct observations during electro-fishing surveys, were produced for a range of hydraulic indices for juvenile salmon. The hydraulic simulations showed marked spatial differences in juvenile habitat quality both within and between reaches. They also showed marked differences both within and between years. This is most evident in extreme years with wet summers when salmon feeding opportunities may be constrained. Integration of hydraulic habitat models, with fish preference curves and the long term hydrological data allows us to assess whether long-term changes in hydroclimate may be affecting juvenile salmonid populations in the study stream.Wild Atlantic salmon populations in Scottish rivers constitute an important economic and recreational resource, as well as being a key component of biodiversity. Salmon have very specific habitat requirements at different life stages and their distribution is therefore strongly influenced by a complex suite of biological and physical controls. Previous research has shown that stream hydrodynamics and channel morphology have a strong influence on the distribution and density of juvenile salmon. Here, we utilise a unique 20 year data set of spatially distributed juvenile salmon densities derived from annual electro-fishing surveys in an upland Scottish river. We examine to what extent the spatial and temporal variability of in-stream hydraulics regulates the spatial and temporal variability in the performance and density of juvenile salmon. A 2-D hydraulic model (River2D) is used to simulate water velocity and water depth under different flow conditions for seven different electro-fishing sites. The selected sites represent different hydromorphological environments including plane-bed, step-pool and pool riffle reaches. The bathymetry of each site was characterised using a total station providing an accurate DTM of the bed, and hydraulic simulations were driven by 20 year stream flow records. Habitat suitability curves, based on direct observations during electro-fishing surveys, were produced for a range of hydraulic indices for juvenile salmon. The hydraulic simulations showed marked spatial differences in juvenile habitat quality both within and between reaches. They also showed marked differences both within and between years. This is most evident in extreme years with wet summers when salmon feeding opportunities may be constrained. Integration of hydraulic habitat models, with fish preference curves and the long term hydrological data allows us to assess whether long-term changes in hydroclimate may be affecting juvenile salmonid populations in the study stream.

Monitoring survival rates of landbirds at varying spatial scales: An application of the MAPS Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberg, D.K.; DeSante, D.F.; Hines, J.E.; Bonney, Rick; Pashley, David N.; Cooper, Robert; Niles, Larry

2000-01-01

Survivorship is a primary demographic parameter affecting population dynamics, and thus trends in species abundance. The Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program is a cooperative effort designed to monitor landbird demographic parameters. A principle goal of MAPS is to estimate annual survivorship and identify spatial patterns and temporal trends in these rates. We evaluated hypotheses of spatial patterns in survival rates among a collection of neighboring sampling sites, such as within national forests, among biogeographic provinces, and between breeding populations that winter in either Central or South America, and compared these geographic-specific models to a model of a common survival rate among all sampling sites. We used data collected during 1992-1995 from Swainson's Thrush (Cathorus ustulatus) populations in the western region of the United States. We evaluated the ability to detect spatial and temporal patterns of survivorship with simulated data. We found weak evidence of spatial differences in survival rates at the local scale of 'location,' which typically contained 3 mist-netting stations. There was little evidence of differences in survival rates among biogeographic provinces or between populations that winter in either Central or South America. When data were pooled for a regional estimate of survivorship, the percent relative bias due to pooling 'locations' was 12 years of monitoring. Detection of spatial patterns and temporal trends in survival rates from local to regional scales will provide important information for management and future research directed toward conservation of landbirds.

GABAergic contributions to gating, timing, and phase precession of hippocampal neuronal activity during theta oscillations.

PubMed

Cutsuridis, Vassilis; Hasselmo, Michael

2012-07-01

Successful spatial exploration requires gating, storage, and retrieval of spatial memories in the correct order. The hippocampus is known to play an important role in the temporal organization of spatial information. Temporally ordered spatial memories are encoded and retrieved by the firing rate and phase of hippocampal pyramidal cells and inhibitory interneurons with respect to ongoing network theta oscillations paced by intra- and extrahippocampal areas. Much is known about the anatomical, physiological, and molecular characteristics as well as the connectivity and synaptic properties of various cell types in the hippocampal microcircuits, but how these detailed properties of individual neurons give rise to temporal organization of spatial memories remains unclear. We present a model of the hippocampal CA1 microcircuit based on observed biophysical properties of pyramidal cells and six types of inhibitory interneurons: axo-axonic, basket, bistratistified, neurogliaform, ivy, and oriens lacunosum-moleculare cells. The model simulates a virtual rat running on a linear track. Excitatory transient inputs come from the entorhinal cortex (EC) and the CA3 Schaffer collaterals and impinge on both the pyramidal cells and inhibitory interneurons, whereas inhibitory inputs from the medial septum impinge only on the inhibitory interneurons. Dopamine operates as a gate-keeper modulating the spatial memory flow to the PC distal dendrites in a frequency-dependent manner. A mechanism for spike-timing-dependent plasticity in distal and proximal PC dendrites consisting of three calcium detectors, which responds to the instantaneous calcium level and its time course in the dendrite, is used to model the plasticity effects. The model simulates the timing of firing of different hippocampal cell types relative to theta oscillations, and proposes functional roles for the different classes of the hippocampal and septal inhibitory interneurons in the correct ordering of spatial memories as well as in the generation and maintenance of theta phase precession of pyramidal cells (place cells) in CA1. The model leads to a number of experimentally testable predictions that may lead to a better understanding of the biophysical computations in the hippocampus and medial septum. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dynamically-downscaled projections of changes in temperature extremes over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Junhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Li, Yongping; Lin, Qianguo

2018-02-01

In this study, likely changes in extreme temperatures (including 16 indices) over China in response to global warming throughout the twenty-first century are investigated through the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. The PRECIS experiment is conducted at a spatial resolution of 25 km and is driven by a perturbed-physics ensemble to reflect spatial variations and model uncertainties. Simulations of present climate (1961-1990) are compared with observations to validate the model performance in reproducing historical climate over China. Results indicate that the PRECIS demonstrates reasonable skills in reproducing the spatial patterns of observed extreme temperatures over the most regions of China, especially in the east. Nevertheless, the PRECIS shows a relatively poor performance in simulating the spatial patterns of extreme temperatures in the western mountainous regions, where its driving GCM exhibits more uncertainties due to lack of insufficient observations and results in more errors in climate downscaling. Future spatio-temporal changes of extreme temperature indices are then analyzed for three successive periods (i.e., 2020s, 2050s and 2080s). The projected changes in extreme temperatures by PRECIS are well consistent with the results of the major global climate models in both spatial and temporal patterns. Furthermore, the PRECIS demonstrates a distinct superiority in providing more detailed spatial information of extreme indices. In general, all extreme indices show similar changes in spatial pattern: large changes are projected in the north while small changes are projected in the south. In contrast, the temporal patterns for all indices vary differently over future periods: the warm indices, such as SU, TR, WSDI, TX90p, TN90p and GSL are likely to increase, while the cold indices, such as ID, FD, CSDI, TX10p and TN10p, are likely to decrease with time in response to global warming. Nevertheless, the magnitudes of changes in all indices tend to decrease gradually with time, indicating the projected warming will begin to slow down in the late of this century. In addition, the projected range of changes for all indices would become larger with time, suggesting more uncertainties would be involved in long-term climate projections.

a Simulation-As Framework Facilitating Webgis Based Installation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Z.; Chang, Z. Y.; Fei, Y. F.

2017-09-01

Installation Planning is constrained by both natural and social conditions, especially for spatially sparse but functionally connected facilities. Simulation is important for proper deploy in space and configuration in function of facilities to make them a cohesive and supportive system to meet users' operation needs. Based on requirement analysis, we propose a framework to combine GIS and Agent simulation to overcome the shortness in temporal analysis and task simulation of traditional GIS. In this framework, Agent based simulation runs as a service on the server, exposes basic simulation functions, such as scenario configuration, simulation control, and simulation data retrieval to installation planners. At the same time, the simulation service is able to utilize various kinds of geoprocessing services in Agents' process logic to make sophisticated spatial inferences and analysis. This simulation-as-a-service framework has many potential benefits, such as easy-to-use, on-demand, shared understanding, and boosted performances. At the end, we present a preliminary implement of this concept using ArcGIS javascript api 4.0 and ArcGIS for server, showing how trip planning and driving can be carried out by agents.

Quantifying Diurnal and Spatial Variations in CO2 Concentrations and Partial Columns using High-Resolution Global Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pawson, S.; Nielsen, J.; Ott, L. E.; Darmenov, A.; Putman, W.

2015-12-01

Model-data fusion approaches, such as global inverse modeling for surface flux estimation, have traditionally been performed at spatial resolutions of several tens to a few hundreds of kilometers. Use of such coarse scales presents a fundamental limitation in reconciling the modeled field with both the atmospheric observations and the distribution of surface emissions and uptake. Emissions typically occur on small scales, including point sources (e.g. power plants, forest fires) or with inhomegeneous structure. Biological uptake can have spatial variations related to complex, diverse vegetation, etc. Atmospheric observations of CO2 are either surface based, providing information at a single point, or space based with a finite-sized footprint. For instance, GOSAT and OCO-2 have footprint sizes of around 10km and proposed active sensors (such as ASCENDS) will likely have even finer footprints. One important aspect of reconciling models to measurements is the representativeness of the observation for the model field, and this depends on the generally unknown spatio-temporal variations of the CO2 field around the measurement location and time. This work presents an assessment of the global spatio-temporal variations of the CO2 field using the "7km GEOS-5 Nature Run" (7km-G5NR), which includes CO2 emissions and uptake mapped to the finest possible resolution. Results are shown for surface CO2 concentrations, total-column CO2, and separate upper and lower tropospheric columns. Spatial variability is shown to be largest in regions with strong point sources and at night in regions with complex terrain, especially where biological processes dominate the local CO2 fluxes, where the day-night differences are also most marked. The spatio-temporal variations are strongest for surface concentrations and for lower tropospheric CO2. While these results are largely anticipated, these high resolution simulations provide quantitative estimates of the global nature of spatio-temporal CO2 variability. Implications for characterizing representativeness of passive CO2 observations will be discussed. Differences between daytime and nighttime structures will be considered in light of active CO2 sensors. Finally, some possible limitations of the model will be highlighted, using some global 3-km simulations.

Long-term particulate matter modeling for health effects studies in California - Part 1: Model performance on temporal and spatial variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, J.; Zhang, H.; Ying, Q.; Chen, S.-H.; Vandenberghe, F.; Kleeman, M. J.

2014-08-01

For the first time, a decadal (9 years from 2000 to 2008) air quality model simulation with 4 km horizontal resolution and daily time resolution has been conducted in California to provide air quality data for health effects studies. Model predictions are compared to measurements to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation with an emphasis on spatial and temporal variations that could be used in epidemiology studies. Better model performance is found at longer averaging times, suggesting that model results with averaging times ≥ 1 month should be the first to be considered in epidemiological studies. The UCD/CIT model predicts spatial and temporal variations in the concentrations of O3, PM2.5, EC, OC, nitrate, and ammonium that meet standard modeling performance criteria when compared to monthly-averaged measurements. Predicted sulfate concentrations do not meet target performance metrics due to missing sulfur sources in the emissions. Predicted seasonal and annual variations of PM2.5, EC, OC, nitrate, and ammonium have mean fractional biases that meet the model performance criteria in 95%, 100%, 71%, 73%, and 92% of the simulated months, respectively. The base dataset provides an improvement for predicted population exposure to PM concentrations in California compared to exposures estimated by central site monitors operated one day out of every 3 days at a few urban locations. Uncertainties in the model predictions arise from several issues. Incomplete understanding of secondary organic aerosol formation mechanisms leads to OC bias in the model results in summertime but does not affect OC predictions in winter when concentrations are typically highest. The CO and NO (species dominated by mobile emissions) results reveal temporal and spatial uncertainties associated with the mobile emissions generated by the EMFAC 2007 model. The WRF model tends to over-predict wind speed during stagnation events, leading to under-predictions of high PM concentrations, usually in winter months. The WRF model also generally under-predicts relative humidity, resulting in less particulate nitrate formation especially during winter months. These issues will be improved in future studies. All model results included in the current manuscript can be downloaded free of charge at http://faculty.engineering.ucdavis.edu/kleeman/.

Long-term particulate matter modeling for health effect studies in California - Part 1: Model performance on temporal and spatial variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, J.; Zhang, H.; Ying, Q.; Chen, S.-H.; Vandenberghe, F.; Kleeman, M. J.

2015-03-01

For the first time, a ~ decadal (9 years from 2000 to 2008) air quality model simulation with 4 km horizontal resolution over populated regions and daily time resolution has been conducted for California to provide air quality data for health effect studies. Model predictions are compared to measurements to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation with an emphasis on spatial and temporal variations that could be used in epidemiology studies. Better model performance is found at longer averaging times, suggesting that model results with averaging times ≥ 1 month should be the first to be considered in epidemiological studies. The UCD/CIT model predicts spatial and temporal variations in the concentrations of O3, PM2.5, elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), nitrate, and ammonium that meet standard modeling performance criteria when compared to monthly-averaged measurements. Predicted sulfate concentrations do not meet target performance metrics due to missing sulfur sources in the emissions. Predicted seasonal and annual variations of PM2.5, EC, OC, nitrate, and ammonium have mean fractional biases that meet the model performance criteria in 95, 100, 71, 73, and 92% of the simulated months, respectively. The base data set provides an improvement for predicted population exposure to PM concentrations in California compared to exposures estimated by central site monitors operated 1 day out of every 3 days at a few urban locations. Uncertainties in the model predictions arise from several issues. Incomplete understanding of secondary organic aerosol formation mechanisms leads to OC bias in the model results in summertime but does not affect OC predictions in winter when concentrations are typically highest. The CO and NO (species dominated by mobile emissions) results reveal temporal and spatial uncertainties associated with the mobile emissions generated by the EMFAC 2007 model. The WRF model tends to overpredict wind speed during stagnation events, leading to underpredictions of high PM concentrations, usually in winter months. The WRF model also generally underpredicts relative humidity, resulting in less particulate nitrate formation, especially during winter months. These limitations must be recognized when using data in health studies. All model results included in the current manuscript can be downloaded free of charge at http://faculty.engineering.ucdavis.edu/kleeman/ .

smokeSALUD: exploring the effect of demographic change on the smoking prevalence at municipality level in Austria.

PubMed

Tomintz, Melanie; Kosar, Bernhard; Clarke, Graham

2016-10-07

Reducing the smoking population is still high on the policy agenda, as smoking leads to many preventable diseases, such as lung cancer, heart disease, diabetes, and more. In Austria, data on smoking prevalence only exists at the federal state level. This provides an interesting overview about the current health situation, but for regional planning authorities these data are often insufficient as they can hide pockets of high and low smoking prevalence in certain municipalities. This paper presents a spatial-temporal change of estimated smokers for municipalities from 2001 and 2011. A synthetic dataset of smokers is built by combining individual large-scale survey data and small area census data using a deterministic spatial microsimulation approach. Statistical analysis, including chi-square test and binary logistic regression, are applied to find the best variables for the simulation model and to validate its results. As no easy-to-use spatial microsimulation software for non-programmers is available yet, a flexible web-based spatial microsimulation application for health decision support (called simSALUD) has been developed and used for these analyses. The results of the simulation show in general a decrease of smoking prevalence within municipalities between 2001 and 2011 and differences within areas are identified. These results are especially valuable to policy decision makers for future planning strategies. This case study shows the application of smokeSALUD to model the spatial-temporal changes in the smoking population in Austria between 2001 and 2011. This is important as no data on smoking exists at this geographical scale (municipality). However, spatial microsimulation models are useful tools to estimate small area health data and to overcome these problems. The simulations and analysis should support health decision makers to identify hot spots of smokers and this should help to show where to spend health resources best in order to reduce health inequalities.

AIRS-Observed Interrelationships of Anomaly Time-Series of Moist Process-Related Parameters and Inferred Feedback Values on Various Spatial Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molnar, Gyula I.; Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena

2011-01-01

In the beginning, a good measure of a GMCs performance was their ability to simulate the observed mean seasonal cycle. That is, a reasonable simulation of the means (i.e., small biases) and standard deviations of TODAY?S climate would suffice. Here, we argue that coupled GCM (CG CM for short) simulations of FUTURE climates should be evaluated in much more detail, both spatially and temporally. Arguably, it is not the bias, but rather the reliability of the model-generated anomaly time-series, even down to the [C]GCM grid-scale, which really matter. This statement is underlined by the social need to address potential REGIONAL climate variability, and climate drifts/changes in a manner suitable for policy decisions.

High-resolution stochastic generation of extreme rainfall intensity for urban drainage modelling applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

2016-04-01

Urban drainage response is highly dependent on the spatial and temporal structure of rainfall. Therefore, measuring and simulating rainfall at a high spatial and temporal resolution is a fundamental step to fully assess urban drainage system reliability and related uncertainties. This is even more relevant when considering extreme rainfall events. However, the current space-time rainfall models have limitations in capturing extreme rainfall intensity statistics for short durations. Here, we use the STREAP (Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation) model, which is a novel stochastic rainfall generator for simulating high-resolution rainfall fields that preserve the spatio-temporal structure of rainfall and its statistical characteristics. The model enables a generation of rain fields at 102 m and minute scales in a fast and computer-efficient way matching the requirements for hydrological analysis of urban drainage systems. The STREAP model was applied successfully in the past to generate high-resolution extreme rainfall intensities over a small domain. A sub-catchment in the city of Luzern (Switzerland) was chosen as a case study to: (i) evaluate the ability of STREAP to disaggregate extreme rainfall intensities for urban drainage applications; (ii) assessing the role of stochastic climate variability of rainfall in flow response and (iii) evaluate the degree of non-linearity between extreme rainfall intensity and system response (i.e. flow) for a small urban catchment. The channel flow at the catchment outlet is simulated by means of a calibrated hydrodynamic sewer model.

Simulating the Interactions Among Land Use, Transportation, and Economy to Inform Light Rail Transit Decisions

EPA Science Inventory

In most transportation studies, computer models that forecast travel behavior statistics for a future year use static projections of the spatial distribution of future population and employment growth as inputs. As a result, they are unable to account for the temporally dynamic a...

Simulating the Interactions Among Land Use, Transportation, and Economy to Inform Light Rail Transit Decisions (proceedings)

EPA Science Inventory

In most transportation studies, computer models that forecast travel behavior statistics for a future year use static projections of the spatial distribution of future population and employment growth as inputs. As a result, they are unable to account for the temporally dynamic a...

An individual-based process model to simulate landscape-scale forest ecosystem dynamics

Treesearch

Rupert Seidl; Werner Rammer; Robert M. Scheller; Thomas Spies

2012-01-01

Forest ecosystem dynamics emerges from nonlinear interactions between adaptive biotic agents (i.e., individual trees) and their relationship with a spatially and temporally heterogeneous abiotic environment. Understanding and predicting the dynamics resulting from these complex interactions is crucial for the sustainable stewardship of ecosystems, particularly in the...

Can dynamically downscaled climate model outputs improve pojections of extreme precipitation events?

EPA Science Inventory

Many of the storms that generate damaging floods are caused by locally intense, sub-daily precipitation, yet the spatial and temporal resolution of the most widely available climate model outputs are both too coarse to simulate these events. Thus there is often a disconnect betwe...

Comparison of Spatial and Temporal Rainfall Characteristics in WRF-Simulated Precipitation to Gauge and Radar Observations

EPA Science Inventory

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological data are used for USEPA multimedia air and water quality modeling applications, within the CMAQ modeling system to estimate wet deposition and to evaluate future climate and land-use scenarios. While it is not expected that hi...

A remote-sensing driven tool for estimating crop stress and yields

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Biophysical crop simulation models are normally forced with precipitation data recorded with either gages or ground-based radar. However, ground based recording networks are not available at spatial and temporal scales needed to drive the models at many critical places on earth. An alternative would...

Spatially and Temporally Detailed Modeling of Water Quality in Narragansett Bay (AGU)

EPA Science Inventory

Nutrient loading to Narragansett Bay has led to eutrophication, resulting in hypoxia and anoxia, finfish and shellfish kills, loss of seagrass, and reductions in the recreational and economic value of the Bay. We are developing a model that simulates the effects of external nutri...

Evaluation and error apportionment of an ensemble of atmospheric chemistry transport modeling systems: multivariable temporal and spatial breakdown

EPA Science Inventory

Through the comparison of several regional-scale chemistry transport modelling systems that simulate meteorology and air quality over the European and American continents, this study aims at i) apportioning the error to the responsible processes using time-scale analysis, ii) hel...

Disease Extinction Versus Persistence in Discrete-Time Epidemic Models.

PubMed

van den Driessche, P; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

2018-04-12

We focus on discrete-time infectious disease models in populations that are governed by constant, geometric, Beverton-Holt or Ricker demographic equations, and give a method for computing the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text]. When [Formula: see text] and the demographic population dynamics are asymptotically constant or under geometric growth (non-oscillatory), we prove global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the disease models. Under the same demographic assumption, when [Formula: see text], we prove uniform persistence of the disease. We apply our theoretical results to specific discrete-time epidemic models that are formulated for SEIR infections, cholera in humans and anthrax in animals. Our simulations show that a unique endemic equilibrium of each of the three specific disease models is asymptotically stable whenever [Formula: see text].

Rainfall simulators in hydrological and geomorphological sciences: benefits, applications and future research directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iserloh, Thomas; Cerdà, Artemi; Fister, Wolfgang; Seitz, Steffen; Keesstra, Saskia; Green, Daniel; Gabriels, Donald

2017-04-01

Rainfall simulators are used extensively within the hydrological and geomorphological sciences and provide a useful investigative tool to understand many processes, such as: (i) plot-scale runoff, infiltration and erosion; (ii) irrigation and crop management, and; (iii) investigations into flooding within a laboratory setting. Although natural rainfall is desirable as it represents actual conditions in a given geographic location, data acquisition relying on natural rainfall is often hindered by its unpredictable nature. Furthermore, rainfall characteristics such as the intensity, duration, drop size distribution and kinetic energy cannot be spatially or temporally regulated or repeated between experimentation. Rainfall simulators provide a suitable method to overcome the issues associated with depending on potentially erratic and unpredictable natural rainfall as they allow: (i) multiple measurements to be taken quickly without waiting for suitable natural rainfall conditions; (ii) the simulation of spatially and/or temporally controlled rainfall patterns over a given plot area, and; (iii) the creation of a closed environment, allowing simplified measurement of input and output conditions. There is no standardisation of rainfall simulation and as such, rainfall simulators differ in their design, rainfall characteristics and research application. Although this impedes drawing meaningful comparisons between studies, this allows researchers to create a bespoke and tailored rainfall simulator for the specific research application. This paper summarises the rainfall simulators used in European research institutions (Universities of Trier, Valencia, Basel, Tuebingen, Wageningen, Loughborough and Ghent) to investigate a number of hydrological and geomorphological issues and includes details on the design specifications (such as the extent and characteristics of simulated rainfall), as well as a discussion of the purpose and application of the rainfall simulator.

Marine radiocarbon reservoir age simulations for the past 50,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butzin, M.; Köhler, P.; Lohmann, G.

2017-08-01

Radiocarbon (14C) dating calibration for the last glacial period largely relies on cross-dated marine 14C records. However, marine reservoirs are isotopically depleted with respect to the atmosphere and therefore have to be corrected by the Marine Radiocarbon Ages of surface waters (MRAs), whose temporal variabilities are largely unknown. Here we present simulations of the spatial and temporal variability in MRAs using a three-dimensional ocean circulation model covering the past 50,000 years. Our simulations are compared to reconstructions of past surface ocean Δ14C. Running the model with different climatic boundary conditions, we find that low-latitude to midlatitude MRAs have varied between 400 and 1200 14C years, with values of about 780 14C years at the Last Glacial Maximum. Reservoir ages exceeding 2000 14C years are simulated in the polar oceans. Our simulation results can be used as first-order approximation of the MRA variability in future radiocarbon calibration efforts.

A single spacecraft method to study the spatial profiles inside the magnetopause

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorville, Nicolas; Belmont, Gerard; Rezeau, Laurence; Aunai, Nicolas; Retino, Alessandro

2013-04-01

Previous magnetopause observations have revealed that the tangential magnetic field often rotates over C-shaped hodograms during the boundary crossing. Using observations of magnetopause crossings by the ESA Cluster mission and a simulation developed at LPP by Nicolas Aunai, we developed a single spacecraft method using the temporal information on the magnetic field in such crossings, complemented by the ion data. We can so obtain a 1D spatial parameter to characterize the depth in the layer and study the structure of the magnetopause as a function of this parameter. This allows using one single spacecraft magnetic data, completed by ion data at large temporal scales, to study the spatial structure of the boundary, and access scales that the particle temporal measurements of the four spacecraft do not permit. To obtain the normal direction and position, we first initialize our computations thanks to the standard MVABC method. Then we use the magnetic field data in the current layer, and suppose it is 1D, rotating in the tangential plane along an ellipse, with an angle variation essentially linear in space, with small sinusoidal perturbations. Making the assumption that the normal velocity of ions is dominated by the motion of the boundary and that the internal structure of the magnetopause is stationary over the duration of a crossing, we can compute the best normal direction and parameters of the model with CIS velocity and FGM magnetic field data, and so derive the spatial position of the spacecraft in the boundary. This method, which has been tested on the simulation data, could be applied successfully on several magnetopause crossings observed by Cluster. It directly gives a thickness and a normal direction, and permits to establish spatial profiles of all the physical quantities inside the boundary. It can be used to better understand the internal structure of the boundary, its physical properties and behavior regarding the flux conservation equations. The obtained results are compared with the results of other methods.

Spatial independent component analysis of functional MRI time-series: to what extent do results depend on the algorithm used?

PubMed

Esposito, Fabrizio; Formisano, Elia; Seifritz, Erich; Goebel, Rainer; Morrone, Renato; Tedeschi, Gioacchino; Di Salle, Francesco

2002-07-01

Independent component analysis (ICA) has been successfully employed to decompose functional MRI (fMRI) time-series into sets of activation maps and associated time-courses. Several ICA algorithms have been proposed in the neural network literature. Applied to fMRI, these algorithms might lead to different spatial or temporal readouts of brain activation. We compared the two ICA algorithms that have been used so far for spatial ICA (sICA) of fMRI time-series: the Infomax (Bell and Sejnowski [1995]: Neural Comput 7:1004-1034) and the Fixed-Point (Hyvärinen [1999]: Adv Neural Inf Proc Syst 10:273-279) algorithms. We evaluated the Infomax- and Fixed Point-based sICA decompositions of simulated motor, and real motor and visual activation fMRI time-series using an ensemble of measures. Log-likelihood (McKeown et al. [1998]: Hum Brain Mapp 6:160-188) was used as a measure of how significantly the estimated independent sources fit the statistical structure of the data; receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and linear correlation analyses were used to evaluate the algorithms' accuracy of estimating the spatial layout and the temporal dynamics of simulated and real activations; cluster sizing calculations and an estimation of a residual gaussian noise term within the components were used to examine the anatomic structure of ICA components and for the assessment of noise reduction capabilities. Whereas both algorithms produced highly accurate results, the Fixed-Point outperformed the Infomax in terms of spatial and temporal accuracy as long as inferential statistics were employed as benchmarks. Conversely, the Infomax sICA was superior in terms of global estimation of the ICA model and noise reduction capabilities. Because of its adaptive nature, the Infomax approach appears to be better suited to investigate activation phenomena that are not predictable or adequately modelled by inferential techniques. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Optimization as a Tool for Consistency Maintenance in Multi-Resolution Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drewry, Darren T; Reynolds, Jr , Paul F; Emanuel, William R

2006-01-01

The need for new approaches to the consistent simulation of related phenomena at multiple levels of resolution is great. While many fields of application would benefit from a complete and approachable solution to this problem, such solutions have proven extremely difficult. We present a multi-resolution simulation methodology that uses numerical optimization as a tool for maintaining external consistency between models of the same phenomena operating at different levels of temporal and/or spatial resolution. Our approach follows from previous work in the disparate fields of inverse modeling and spacetime constraint-based animation. As a case study, our methodology is applied to two environmental models of forest canopy processes that make overlapping predictions under unique sets of operating assumptions, and which execute at different temporal resolutions. Experimental results are presented and future directions are addressed.

Towards a high resolution, integrated hydrology model of North America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, R. M.; Condon, L. E.

2015-12-01

Recent studies demonstrate feedbacks between groundwater dynamics, overland flow, land surface and vegetation processes, and atmospheric boundary layer development that significantly affect local and regional climate across a range of climatic conditions. Furthermore, the type and distribution of vegetation cover alters land-atmosphere water and energy fluxes, as well as runoff generation and overland flow processes. These interactions can result in significant feedbacks on local and regional climate. In mountainous regions, recent research has shown that spatial and temporal variability in annual evapotranspiration, and thus water budgets, is strongly dependent on lateral groundwater flow; however, the full effects of these feedbacks across varied terrain (e.g. from plains to mountains) are not well understood. Here, we present a high-resolution, integrated hydrology model that covers much of continental North America and encompasses the Mississippi and Colorado watersheds. The model is run in a fully-transient manner at hourly temporal resolution incorporating fully-coupled land energy states and fluxes with integrated surface and subsurface hydrology. Connections are seen between hydrologic variables (such as water table depth) and land energy fluxes (such as latent heat) and spatial and temporal scaling is shown to span many orders of magnitude. Using these transient simulations as a proof of concept, we present a vision for future integrated simulation capabilities.

Mercury and methylmercury stream concentrations in a Coastal Plain watershed: A multi-scale simulation analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knightes, Christopher D.; Golden, Heather E.; Journey, Celeste A.; Davis, Gary M.; Conrads, Paul; Marvin-DiPasquale, Mark; Brigham, Mark E.; Bradley, Paul M.

2014-01-01

Mercury is a ubiquitous global environmental toxicant responsible for most US fish advisories. Processes governing mercury concentrations in rivers and streams are not well understood, particularly at multiple spatial scales. We investigate how insights gained from reach-scale mercury data and model simulations can be applied at broader watershed scales using a spatially and temporally explicit watershed hydrology and biogeochemical cycling model, VELMA. We simulate fate and transport using reach-scale (0.1 km2) study data and evaluate applications to multiple watershed scales. Reach-scale VELMA parameterization was applied to two nested sub-watersheds (28 km2 and 25 km2) and the encompassing watershed (79 km2). Results demonstrate that simulated flow and total mercury concentrations compare reasonably to observations at different scales, but simulated methylmercury concentrations are out-of-phase with observations. These findings suggest that intricacies of methylmercury biogeochemical cycling and transport are under-represented in VELMA and underscore the complexity of simulating mercury fate and transport.

Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Dust Transport over Surface Mining Areas and Neighbouring Residential Zones.

PubMed

Matejicek, Lubos; Janour, Zbynek; Benes, Ludek; Bodnar, Tomas; Gulikova, Eva

2008-06-06

Projects focusing on spatio-temporal modelling of the living environment need to manage a wide range of terrain measurements, existing spatial data, time series, results of spatial analysis and inputs/outputs from numerical simulations. Thus, GISs are often used to manage data from remote sensors, to provide advanced spatial analysis and to integrate numerical models. In order to demonstrate the integration of spatial data, time series and methods in the framework of the GIS, we present a case study focused on the modelling of dust transport over a surface coal mining area, exploring spatial data from 3D laser scanners, GPS measurements, aerial images, time series of meteorological observations, inputs/outputs form numerical models and existing geographic resources. To achieve this, digital terrain models, layers including GPS thematic mapping, and scenes with simulation of wind flows are created to visualize and interpret coal dust transport over the mine area and a neighbouring residential zone. A temporary coal storage and sorting site, located near the residential zone, is one of the dominant sources of emissions. Using numerical simulations, the possible effects of wind flows are observed over the surface, modified by natural objects and man-made obstacles. The coal dust drifts with the wind in the direction of the residential zone and is partially deposited in this area. The simultaneous display of the digital map layers together with the location of the dominant emission source, wind flows and protected areas enables a risk assessment of the dust deposition in the area of interest to be performed. In order to obtain a more accurate simulation of wind flows over the temporary storage and sorting site, 3D laser scanning and GPS thematic mapping are used to create a more detailed digital terrain model. Thus, visualization of wind flows over the area of interest combined with 3D map layers enables the exploration of the processes of coal dust deposition at a local scale. In general, this project could be used as a template for dust-transport modelling which couples spatial data focused on the construction of digital terrain models and thematic mapping with data generated by numerical simulations based on Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations.

Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Dust Transport over Surface Mining Areas and Neighbouring Residential Zones

PubMed Central

Matejicek, Lubos; Janour, Zbynek; Benes, Ludek; Bodnar, Tomas; Gulikova, Eva

2008-01-01

Projects focusing on spatio-temporal modelling of the living environment need to manage a wide range of terrain measurements, existing spatial data, time series, results of spatial analysis and inputs/outputs from numerical simulations. Thus, GISs are often used to manage data from remote sensors, to provide advanced spatial analysis and to integrate numerical models. In order to demonstrate the integration of spatial data, time series and methods in the framework of the GIS, we present a case study focused on the modelling of dust transport over a surface coal mining area, exploring spatial data from 3D laser scanners, GPS measurements, aerial images, time series of meteorological observations, inputs/outputs form numerical models and existing geographic resources. To achieve this, digital terrain models, layers including GPS thematic mapping, and scenes with simulation of wind flows are created to visualize and interpret coal dust transport over the mine area and a neighbouring residential zone. A temporary coal storage and sorting site, located near the residential zone, is one of the dominant sources of emissions. Using numerical simulations, the possible effects of wind flows are observed over the surface, modified by natural objects and man-made obstacles. The coal dust drifts with the wind in the direction of the residential zone and is partially deposited in this area. The simultaneous display of the digital map layers together with the location of the dominant emission source, wind flows and protected areas enables a risk assessment of the dust deposition in the area of interest to be performed. In order to obtain a more accurate simulation of wind flows over the temporary storage and sorting site, 3D laser scanning and GPS thematic mapping are used to create a more detailed digital terrain model. Thus, visualization of wind flows over the area of interest combined with 3D map layers enables the exploration of the processes of coal dust deposition at a local scale. In general, this project could be used as a template for dust-transport modelling which couples spatial data focused on the construction of digital terrain models and thematic mapping with data generated by numerical simulations based on Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations. PMID:27879911

Discretization and control of an SEIR epidemic model under equilibrium Wiener noise disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alonso, Santiago; De la Sen, Manuel; Nistal, Raul; Ibeas, Asier

2017-11-01

A discretized SEIR epidemic model, subject to Wiener noise disturbances of the equilibrium points, is studied. The discrete-time model is got from a general discretization technique applied to its continuous-time counterpart so that its behaviour be close to its continuous-time counterpart irrespective of the size of the discretization period. The positivity and stability of a normalized version of such a discrete-time model are emphasized. The paper also proposes the design of a periodic impulsive vaccination which is periodically injected to the susceptible subpopulation in order to eradicate the propagation of the disease or, at least, to reduce its unsuitable infective effects within the potentially susceptible subpopulation. The existence and asymptotic stability of a disease-free periodic solution are proved. In particular, both the exposed and infectious subpopulations converge asymptotically to zero as time tends to infinity while the normalized subpopulations of susceptible and recovered by immunization oscillate.

Integration agent-based models and GIS as a virtual urban dynamic laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Peng; Liu, Miaolong

2007-06-01

Based on the Agent-based Model and spatial data model, a tight-coupling integrating method of GIS and Agent-based Model (ABM) is to be discussed in this paper. The use of object-orientation for both spatial data and spatial process models facilitates their integration, which can allow exploration and explanation of spatial-temporal phenomena such as urban dynamic. In order to better understand how tight coupling might proceed and to evaluate the possible functional and efficiency gains from such a tight coupling, the agent-based model and spatial data model are discussed, and then the relationships affecting spatial data model and agent-based process models interaction. After that, a realistic crowd flow simulation experiment is presented. Using some tools provided by general GIS systems and a few specific programming languages, a new software system integrating GIS and MAS as a virtual laboratory applicable for simulating pedestrian flows in a crowd activity centre has been developed successfully. Under the environment supported by the software system, as an applicable case, a dynamic evolution process of the pedestrian's flows (dispersed process for the spectators) in a crowds' activity center - The Shanghai Stadium has been simulated successfully. At the end of the paper, some new research problems have been pointed out for the future.

Spatial and temporal variability of clouds and precipitation over Germany: multiscale simulations across the "gray zone"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barthlott, C.; Hoose, C.

2015-11-01

This paper assesses the resolution dependance of clouds and precipitation over Germany by numerical simulations with the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling (COSMO) model. Six intensive observation periods of the HOPE (HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment) measurement campaign conducted in spring 2013 and 1 summer day of the same year are simulated. By means of a series of grid-refinement resolution tests (horizontal grid spacing 2.8, 1 km, 500, and 250 m), the applicability of the COSMO model to represent real weather events in the gray zone, i.e., the scale ranging between the mesoscale limit (no turbulence resolved) and the large-eddy simulation limit (energy-containing turbulence resolved), is tested. To the authors' knowledge, this paper presents the first non-idealized COSMO simulations in the peer-reviewed literature at the 250-500 m scale. It is found that the kinetic energy spectra derived from model output show the expected -5/3 slope, as well as a dependency on model resolution, and that the effective resolution lies between 6 and 7 times the nominal resolution. Although the representation of a number of processes is enhanced with resolution (e.g., boundary-layer thermals, low-level convergence zones, gravity waves), their influence on the temporal evolution of precipitation is rather weak. However, rain intensities vary with resolution, leading to differences in the total rain amount of up to +48 %. Furthermore, the location of rain is similar for the springtime cases with moderate and strong synoptic forcing, whereas significant differences are obtained for the summertime case with air mass convection. Domain-averaged liquid water paths and cloud condensate profiles are used to analyze the temporal and spatial variability of the simulated clouds. Finally, probability density functions of convection-related parameters are analyzed to investigate their dependance on model resolution and their impact on cloud formation and subsequent precipitation.

Sensitivity of CONUS Summer Rainfall to the Selection of Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in NU-WRF Seasonal Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iguchi, Takamichi; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Wu, Di; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Santanello, Joseph A.; Kemp, Eric; Tian, Yudong; Case, Jonathan; Wang, Weile; Ferraro, Robert;

Small target detection using bilateral filter and temporal cross product in infrared images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bae, Tae-Wuk

2011-09-01

We introduce a spatial and temporal target detection method using spatial bilateral filter (BF) and temporal cross product (TCP) of temporal pixels in infrared (IR) image sequences. At first, the TCP is presented to extract the characteristics of temporal pixels by using temporal profile in respective spatial coordinates of pixels. The TCP represents the cross product values by the gray level distance vector of a current temporal pixel and the adjacent temporal pixel, as well as the horizontal distance vector of the current temporal pixel and a temporal pixel corresponding to potential target center. The summation of TCP values of temporal pixels in spatial coordinates makes the temporal target image (TTI), which represents the temporal target information of temporal pixels in spatial coordinates. And then the proposed BF filter is used to extract the spatial target information. In order to predict background without targets, the proposed BF filter uses standard deviations obtained by an exponential mapping of the TCP value corresponding to the coordinate of a pixel processed spatially. The spatial target image (STI) is made by subtracting the predicted image from the original image. Thus, the spatial and temporal target image (STTI) is achieved by multiplying the STI and the TTI, and then targets finally are detected in STTI. In experimental result, the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were computed experimentally to compare the objective performance. From the results, the proposed algorithm shows better discrimination of target and clutters and lower false alarm rates than the existing target detection methods.

Downscaling Solar Power Output to 4-Seconds for Use in Integration Studies (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hummon, M.; Weekley, A.; Searight, K.

2013-10-01

High penetration renewable integration studies require solar power data with high spatial and temporal accuracy to quantify the impact of high frequency solar power ramps on the operation of the system. Our previous work concentrated on downscaling solar power from one hour to one minute by simulation. This method used clearness classifications to categorize temporal and spatial variability, and iterative methods to simulate intra-hour clearness variability. We determined that solar power ramp correlations between sites decrease with distance and the duration of the ramp, starting at around 0.6 for 30-minute ramps between sites that are less than 20 km apart.more » The sub-hour irradiance algorithm we developed has a noise floor that causes the correlations to approach ~0.005. Below one minute, the majority of the correlations of solar power ramps between sites less than 20 km apart are zero, and thus a new method to simulate intra-minute variability is needed. These intra-minute solar power ramps can be simulated using several methods, three of which we evaluate: a cubic spline fit to the one-minute solar power data; projection of the power spectral density toward the higher frequency domain; and average high frequency power spectral density from measured data. Each of these methods either under- or over-estimates the variability of intra-minute solar power ramps. We show that an optimized weighted linear sum of methods, dependent on the classification of temporal variability of the segment of one-minute solar power data, yields time series and ramp distributions similar to measured high-resolution solar irradiance data.« less

Downscaling Solar Power Output to 4-Seconds for Use in Integration Studies: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hummon, M.; Weekley, A.; Searight, K.

2013-10-01

High penetration renewable integration studies require solar power data with high spatial and temporal accuracy to quantify the impact of high frequency solar power ramps on the operation of the system. Our previous work concentrated on downscaling solar power from one hour to one minute by simulation. This method used clearness classifications to categorize temporal and spatial variability, and iterative methods to simulate intra-hour clearness variability. We determined that solar power ramp correlations between sites decrease with distance and the duration of the ramp, starting at around 0.6 for 30-minute ramps between sites that are less than 20 km apart.more » The sub-hour irradiance algorithm we developed has a noise floor that causes the correlations to approach ~0.005. Below one minute, the majority of the correlations of solar power ramps between sites less than 20 km apart are zero, and thus a new method to simulate intra-minute variability is needed. These intra-minute solar power ramps can be simulated using several methods, three of which we evaluate: a cubic spline fit to the one-minute solar power data; projection of the power spectral density toward the higher frequency domain; and average high frequency power spectral density from measured data. Each of these methods either under- or over-estimates the variability of intra-minute solar power ramps. We show that an optimized weighted linear sum of methods, dependent on the classification of temporal variability of the segment of one-minute solar power data, yields time series and ramp distributions similar to measured high-resolution solar irradiance data.« less

Integration of environmental simulation models with satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies: case studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steyaert, Louis T.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Reed, Bradley C.

1993-01-01

Environmental modelers are testing and evaluating a prototype land cover characteristics database for the conterminous United States developed by the EROS Data Center of the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Nebraska Center for Advanced Land Management Information Technologies. This database was developed from multi temporal, 1-kilometer advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for 1990 and various ancillary data sets such as elevation, ecological regions, and selected climatic normals. Several case studies using this database were analyzed to illustrate the integration of satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies with land-atmosphere interactions models at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The case studies are representative of contemporary environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management, and environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management and environmental risk assessment. The case studies feature land surface parameterizations for atmospheric mesoscale and global climate models; biogenic-hydrocarbons emissions models; distributed parameter watershed and other hydrological models; and various ecological models such as ecosystem, dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, ecotone variability, and equilibrium vegetation models. The case studies demonstrate the important of multi temporal AVHRR data to develop to develop and maintain a flexible, near-realtime land cover characteristics database. Moreover, such a flexible database is needed to derive various vegetation classification schemes, to aggregate data for nested models, to develop remote sensing algorithms, and to provide data on dynamic landscape characteristics. The case studies illustrate how such a database supports research on spatial heterogeneity, land use, sensitivity analysis, and scaling issues involving regional extrapolations and parameterizations of dynamic land processes within simulation models.

Adaptive social learning strategies in temporally and spatially varying environments : how temporal vs. spatial variation, number of cultural traits, and costs of learning influence the evolution of conformist-biased transmission, payoff-biased transmission, and individual learning.

PubMed

Nakahashi, Wataru; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Henrich, Joseph

2012-12-01

Long before the origins of agriculture human ancestors had expanded across the globe into an immense variety of environments, from Australian deserts to Siberian tundra. Survival in these environments did not principally depend on genetic adaptations, but instead on evolved learning strategies that permitted the assembly of locally adaptive behavioral repertoires. To develop hypotheses about these learning strategies, we have modeled the evolution of learning strategies to assess what conditions and constraints favor which kinds of strategies. To build on prior work, we focus on clarifying how spatial variability, temporal variability, and the number of cultural traits influence the evolution of four types of strategies: (1) individual learning, (2) unbiased social learning, (3) payoff-biased social learning, and (4) conformist transmission. Using a combination of analytic and simulation methods, we show that spatial-but not temporal-variation strongly favors the emergence of conformist transmission. This effect intensifies when migration rates are relatively high and individual learning is costly. We also show that increasing the number of cultural traits above two favors the evolution of conformist transmission, which suggests that the assumption of only two traits in many models has been conservative. We close by discussing how (1) spatial variability represents only one way of introducing the low-level, nonadaptive phenotypic trait variation that so favors conformist transmission, the other obvious way being learning errors, and (2) our findings apply to the evolution of conformist transmission in social interactions. Throughout we emphasize how our models generate empirical predictions suitable for laboratory testing.

Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics of Disturbance Wave in a Hypersonic Boundary Layer due to Single-Frequency Entropy Disturbance

PubMed Central

Lv, Hongqing; Shi, Jianqiang

2014-01-01

By using a high-order accurate finite difference scheme, direct numerical simulation of hypersonic flow over an 8° half-wedge-angle blunt wedge under freestream single-frequency entropy disturbance is conducted; the generation and the temporal and spatial nonlinear evolution of boundary layer disturbance waves are investigated. Results show that, under the freestream single-frequency entropy disturbance, the entropy state of boundary layer is changed sharply and the disturbance waves within a certain frequency range are induced in the boundary layer. Furthermore, the amplitudes of disturbance waves in the period phase are larger than that in the response phase and ablation phase and the frequency range in the boundary layer in the period phase is narrower than that in these two phases. In addition, the mode competition, dominant mode transformation, and disturbance energy transfer exist among different modes both in temporal and in spatial evolution. The mode competition changes the characteristics of nonlinear evolution of the unstable waves in the boundary layer. The development of the most unstable mode along streamwise relies more on the motivation of disturbance waves in the upstream than that of other modes on this motivation. PMID:25143983

Temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of disturbance wave in a hypersonic boundary layer due to single-frequency entropy disturbance.

PubMed

Wang, Zhenqing; Tang, Xiaojun; Lv, Hongqing; Shi, Jianqiang

2014-01-01

By using a high-order accurate finite difference scheme, direct numerical simulation of hypersonic flow over an 8° half-wedge-angle blunt wedge under freestream single-frequency entropy disturbance is conducted; the generation and the temporal and spatial nonlinear evolution of boundary layer disturbance waves are investigated. Results show that, under the freestream single-frequency entropy disturbance, the entropy state of boundary layer is changed sharply and the disturbance waves within a certain frequency range are induced in the boundary layer. Furthermore, the amplitudes of disturbance waves in the period phase are larger than that in the response phase and ablation phase and the frequency range in the boundary layer in the period phase is narrower than that in these two phases. In addition, the mode competition, dominant mode transformation, and disturbance energy transfer exist among different modes both in temporal and in spatial evolution. The mode competition changes the characteristics of nonlinear evolution of the unstable waves in the boundary layer. The development of the most unstable mode along streamwise relies more on the motivation of disturbance waves in the upstream than that of other modes on this motivation.

The role of spatial and temporal radiation deposition in inertial fusion chambers: the case of HiPER

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez, J.; Garoz, D.; Gonzalez-Arrabal, R.; Rivera, A.; Perlado, M.

2011-05-01

The first wall armour for the reactor chamber of HiPER will have to face short energy pulses of 5 to 20 MJ mostly in the form of x-rays and charged particles at a repetition rate of 5-10 Hz. Armour material and chamber dimensions have to be chosen to avoid/minimize damage to the chamber, ensuring the proper functioning of the facility during its planned lifetime. The maximum energy fluence that the armour can withstand without risk of failure, is determined by temporal and spatial deposition of the radiation energy inside the material. In this paper, simulations on the thermal effect of the radiation-armour interaction are carried out with an increasing definition of the temporal and spatial deposition of energy to prove their influence on the final results. These calculations will lead us to present the first values of the thermo-mechanical behaviour of the tungsten armour designed for the HiPER project under a shock ignition target of 48 MJ. The results will show that only the crossing of the plasticity limit in the first few micrometres might be a threat after thousands of shots for the survivability of the armour.

Theoretical considerations for mapping activation in human cardiac fibrillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rappel, Wouter-Jan; Narayan, Sanjiv M.

2013-06-01

Defining mechanisms for cardiac fibrillation is challenging because, in contrast to other arrhythmias, fibrillation exhibits complex non-repeatability in spatiotemporal activation but paradoxically exhibits conserved spatial gradients in rate, dominant frequency, and electrical propagation. Unlike animal models, in which fibrillation can be mapped at high spatial and temporal resolution using optical dyes or arrays of contact electrodes, mapping of cardiac fibrillation in patients is constrained practically to lower resolutions or smaller fields-of-view. In many animal models, atrial fibrillation is maintained by localized electrical rotors and focal sources. However, until recently, few studies had revealed localized sources in human fibrillation, so that the impact of mapping constraints on the ability to identify rotors or focal sources in humans was not described. Here, we determine the minimum spatial and temporal resolutions theoretically required to detect rigidly rotating spiral waves and focal sources, then extend these requirements for spiral waves in computer simulations. Finally, we apply our results to clinical data acquired during human atrial fibrillation using a novel technique termed focal impulse and rotor mapping (FIRM). Our results provide theoretical justification and clinical demonstration that FIRM meets the spatio-temporal resolution requirements to reliably identify rotors and focal sources for human atrial fibrillation.

Characterizing and Optimizing Photocathode Laser Distributions for Ultra-low Emittance Electron Beam Operations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, F.; Bohler, D.; Ding, Y.

2015-12-07

Photocathode RF gun has been widely used for generation of high-brightness electron beams for many different applications. We found that the drive laser distributions in such RF guns play important roles in minimizing the electron beam emittance. Characterizing the laser distributions with measurable parameters and optimizing beam emittance versus the laser distribution parameters in both spatial and temporal directions are highly desired for high-brightness electron beam operation. In this paper, we report systematic measurements and simulations of emittance dependence on the measurable parameters represented for spatial and temporal laser distributions at the photocathode RF gun systems of Linac Coherent Lightmore » Source. The tolerable parameter ranges for photocathode drive laser distributions in both directions are presented for ultra-low emittance beam operations.« less

[Wave-type time series variation of the correlation between NDVI and climatic factors].

PubMed

Bi, Xiaoli; Wang, Hui; Ge, Jianping

2005-02-01

Based on the 1992-1996 data of 1 km monthly NDVI and those of the monthly precipitation and mean temperature collected by 400 standard meteorological stations in China, this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamic changes of the correlation between NDVI and climatic factors in different climate districts of this country. The results showed that there was a significant correlation between monthly precipitations and NDVI. The wave-type time series model could simulate well the temporal dynamic changes of the correlation between NDVI and climatic factors, and the simulated results of the correlation between NDVI and precipitation was better than that between NDVI and temperature. The correlation coefficients (R2) were 0.91 and 0.86, respectively for the whole country.

SEARCH: Spatially Explicit Animal Response to Composition of Habitat.

PubMed

Pauli, Benjamin P; McCann, Nicholas P; Zollner, Patrick A; Cummings, Robert; Gilbert, Jonathan H; Gustafson, Eric J

2013-01-01

Complex decisions dramatically affect animal dispersal and space use. Dispersing individuals respond to a combination of fine-scale environmental stimuli and internal attributes. Individual-based modeling offers a valuable approach for the investigation of such interactions because it combines the heterogeneity of animal behaviors with spatial detail. Most individual-based models (IBMs), however, vastly oversimplify animal behavior and such behavioral minimalism diminishes the value of these models. We present program SEARCH (Spatially Explicit Animal Response to Composition of Habitat), a spatially explicit, individual-based, population model of animal dispersal through realistic landscapes. SEARCH uses values in Geographic Information System (GIS) maps to apply rules that animals follow during dispersal, thus allowing virtual animals to respond to fine-scale features of the landscape and maintain a detailed memory of areas sensed during movement. SEARCH also incorporates temporally dynamic landscapes so that the environment to which virtual animals respond can change during the course of a simulation. Animals in SEARCH are behaviorally dynamic and able to respond to stimuli based upon their individual experiences. Therefore, SEARCH is able to model behavioral traits of dispersing animals at fine scales and with many dynamic aspects. Such added complexity allows investigation of unique ecological questions. To illustrate SEARCH's capabilities, we simulated case studies using three mammals. We examined the impact of seasonally variable food resources on the weight distribution of dispersing raccoons (Procyon lotor), the effect of temporally dynamic mortality pressure in combination with various levels of behavioral responsiveness in eastern chipmunks (Tamias striatus), and the impact of behavioral plasticity and home range selection on disperser mortality and weight change in virtual American martens (Martes americana). These simulations highlight the relevance of SEARCH for a variety of applications and illustrate benefits it can provide for conservation planning.

A validated agent-based model to study the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of malaria incidence in the rainforest environment.

PubMed

Pizzitutti, Francesco; Pan, William; Barbieri, Alisson; Miranda, J Jaime; Feingold, Beth; Guedes, Gilvan R; Alarcon-Valenzuela, Javiera; Mena, Carlos F

2015-12-22

The Amazon environment has been exposed in the last decades to radical changes that have been accompanied by a remarkable rise of both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria. The malaria transmission process is highly influenced by factors such as spatial and temporal heterogeneities of the environment and individual-based characteristics of mosquitoes and humans populations. All these determinant factors can be simulated effectively trough agent-based models. This paper presents a validated agent-based model of local-scale malaria transmission. The model reproduces the environment of a typical riverine village in the northern Peruvian Amazon, where the malaria transmission is highly seasonal and apparently associated with flooding of large areas caused by the neighbouring river. Agents representing humans, mosquitoes and the two species of Plasmodium (P. falciparum and P. vivax) are simulated in a spatially explicit representation of the environment around the village. The model environment includes: climate, people houses positions and elevation. A representation of changes in the mosquito breeding areas extension caused by the river flooding is also included in the simulation environment. A calibration process was carried out to reproduce the variations of the malaria monthly incidence over a period of 3 years. The calibrated model is also able to reproduce the spatial heterogeneities of local scale malaria transmission. A "what if" eradication strategy scenario is proposed: if the mosquito breeding sites are eliminated through mosquito larva habitat management in a buffer area extended at least 200 m around the village, the malaria transmission is eradicated from the village. The use of agent-based models can reproduce effectively the spatiotemporal variations of the malaria transmission in a low endemicity environment dominated by river floodings like in the Amazon.

A comprehensive overview of the spatial and temporal variability of apple bud dormancy release and blooming phenology in Western Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legave, Jean Michel; Blanke, Michael; Christen, Danilo; Giovannini, Daniela; Mathieu, Vincent; Oger, Robert

2013-03-01

In the current context of global warming, an analysis is required of spatially-extensive and long-term blooming data in fruit trees to make up for insufficient information on regional-scale blooming changes and determinisms that are key to the phenological adaptation of these species. We therefore analysed blooming dates over long periods at climate-contrasted sites in Western Europe, focusing mainly on the Golden Delicious apple that is grown worldwide. On average, blooming advances were more pronounced in northern continental (10 days) than in western oceanic (6-7 days) regions, while the shortest advance was found on the Mediterranean coastline. Temporal trends toward blooming phase shortenings were also observed in continental regions. These regional differences in temporal variability across Western Europe resulted in a decrease in spatial variability, i.e. shorter time intervals between blooming dates in contrasted regions (8-10-day decrease for full bloom between Mediterranean and continental regions). Fitted sequential models were used to reproduce phenological changes. Marked trends toward shorter simulated durations of forcing period (bud growth from dormancy release to blooming) and high positive correlations between these durations and observed blooming dates support the notion that blooming advances and shortenings are mainly due to faster satisfaction of the heating requirement. However, trends toward later dormancy releases were also noted in oceanic and Mediterranean regions. This could tend toward blooming delays and explain the shorter advances in these regions despite similar or greater warming. The regional differences in simulated chilling and forcing periods were consistent with the regional differences in temperature increases.

Stochastic simulation of spatially correlated geo-processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christakos, G.

1987-01-01

In this study, developments in the theory of stochastic simulation are discussed. The unifying element is the notion of Radon projection in Euclidean spaces. This notion provides a natural way of reconstructing the real process from a corresponding process observable on a reduced dimensionality space, where analysis is theoretically easier and computationally tractable. Within this framework, the concept of space transformation is defined and several of its properties, which are of significant importance within the context of spatially correlated processes, are explored. The turning bands operator is shown to follow from this. This strengthens considerably the theoretical background of the geostatistical method of simulation, and some new results are obtained in both the space and frequency domains. The inverse problem is solved generally and the applicability of the method is extended to anisotropic as well as integrated processes. Some ill-posed problems of the inverse operator are discussed. Effects of the measurement error and impulses at origin are examined. Important features of the simulated process as described by geomechanical laws, the morphology of the deposit, etc., may be incorporated in the analysis. The simulation may become a model-dependent procedure and this, in turn, may provide numerical solutions to spatial-temporal geologic models. Because the spatial simu??lation may be technically reduced to unidimensional simulations, various techniques of generating one-dimensional realizations are reviewed. To link theory and practice, an example is computed in detail. ?? 1987 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of turbulence trapped in geodesic acoustic modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, M.; Kobayashi, T.; Itoh, K.; Kasuya, N.; Kosuga, Y.; Fujisawa, A.; Itoh, S.-I.

2018-01-01

The spatio-temporal dynamics of turbulence with the interaction of geodesic acoustic modes (GAMs) are investigated, focusing on the phase-space structure of turbulence, where the phase-space consists of real-space and wavenumber-space. Based on the wave-kinetic framework, the coupling equation between the GAM and the turbulence is numerically solved. The turbulence trapped by the GAM velocity field is obtained. Due to the trapping effect, the turbulence intensity increases where the second derivative of the GAM velocity (curvature of the GAM) is negative. While, in the positive-curvature region, the turbulence is suppressed. Since the trapped turbulence propagates with the GAMs, this relationship is sustained spatially and temporally. The dynamics of the turbulence in the wavenumber spectrum are converted in the evolution of the frequency spectrum, and the simulation result is compared with the experimental observation in JFT-2M tokamak, where the similar patterns are obtained. The turbulence trapping effect is a key to understand the spatial structure of the turbulence in the presence of sheared flows.

Modelling fast spreading patterns of airborne infectious diseases using complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenner, Frank; Marwan, Norbert; Hoffmann, Peter

2017-04-01

The pandemics of SARS (2002/2003) and H1N1 (2009) have impressively shown the potential of epidemic outbreaks of infectious diseases in a world that is strongly connected. Global air travelling established an easy and fast opportunity for pathogens to migrate globally in only a few days. This made epidemiological prediction harder. By understanding this complex development and its link to climate change we can suggest actions to control a part of global human health affairs. In this study we combine the following data components to simulate the outbreak of an airborne infectious disease that is directly transmitted from human to human: em{Global Air Traffic Network (from openflights.org) with information on airports, airport location, direct flight connection, airplane type} em{Global population dataset (from SEDAC, NASA)} em{Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) compartmental model to simulate disease spreading in the vicinity of airports. A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model to analyze the impact of the incubation period.} em{WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) climate data: temperature, specific humidity, surface air pressure, and water vapor pressure} These elements are implemented into a complex network. Nodes inside the network represent airports. Each single node is equipped with its own SIR/SEIR compartmental model with node specific attributes. Edges between those nodes represent direct flight connections that allow infected individuals to move between linked nodes. Therefore the interaction of the set of unique SIR models creates the model dynamics we will analyze. To better figure out the influence on climate change on disease spreading patterns, we focus on Influenza-like-Illnesses (ILI). The transmission rate of ILI has a dependency on climate parameters like humidity and temperature. Even small changes of environmental variables can trigger significant differences in the global outbreak behavior. Apart from the direct effect of climate change on the transmission of airborne diseases, there are indirect ramifications that alter spreading patterns. An example is seasonal human mobility behavior which will change with varied climate conditions. The direct and indirect effects of climate change on disease spreading patterns will be discussed in this study.

A Spatial and Temporal Frequency Based Figure-Ground Processor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weisstein, Namoi; Wong, Eva

1990-03-01

Recent findings in visual psychophysics have shown that figure-ground perception can be specified by the spatial and temporal response characteristics of the visual system. Higher spatial frequency regions of the visual field are perceived as figure and lower spatial frequency regions are perceived as background/ (Klymenko and Weisstein, 1986, Wong and Weisstein, 1989). Higher temporal frequency regions are seen as background and lower temporal frequency regions are seen as figure (Wong and Weisstein, 1987, Klymenko, Weisstein, Topolski, and Hsieh, 1988). Thus, high spatial and low temporal frequencies appear to be associated with figure and low spatial and high temporal frequencies appear to be associated with background.

Development of Spatiotemporal Bias-Correction Techniques for Downscaling GCM Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, S.; Graham, W. D.; Geurink, J.; Adams, A.; Martinez, C. J.

2010-12-01

Accurately representing the spatial variability of precipitation is an important factor for predicting watershed response to climatic forcing, particularly in small, low-relief watersheds affected by convective storm systems. Although Global Circulation Models (GCMs) generally preserve spatial relationships between large-scale and local-scale mean precipitation trends, most GCM downscaling techniques focus on preserving only observed temporal variability on point by point basis, not spatial patterns of events. Downscaled GCM results (e.g., CMIP3 ensembles) have been widely used to predict hydrologic implications of climate variability and climate change in large snow-dominated river basins in the western United States (Diffenbaugh et al., 2008; Adam et al., 2009). However fewer applications to smaller rain-driven river basins in the southeastern US (where preserving spatial variability of rainfall patterns may be more important) have been reported. In this study a new method was developed to bias-correct GCMs to preserve both the long term temporal mean and variance of the precipitation data, and the spatial structure of daily precipitation fields. Forty-year retrospective simulations (1960-1999) from 16 GCMs were collected (IPCC, 2007; WCRP CMIP3 multi-model database: https://esg.llnl.gov:8443/), and the daily precipitation data at coarse resolution (i.e., 280km) were interpolated to 12km spatial resolution and bias corrected using gridded observations over the state of Florida (Maurer et al., 2002; Wood et al, 2002; Wood et al, 2004). In this method spatial random fields which preserved the observed spatial correlation structure of the historic gridded observations and the spatial mean corresponding to the coarse scale GCM daily rainfall were generated. The spatiotemporal variability of the spatio-temporally bias-corrected GCMs were evaluated against gridded observations, and compared to the original temporally bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP3 data for the central Florida. The hydrologic response of two southwest Florida watersheds to the gridded observation data, the original bias corrected CMIP3 data, and the new spatiotemporally corrected CMIP3 predictions was compared using an integrated surface-subsurface hydrologic model developed by Tampa Bay Water.

A resolved mantle anomaly as the cause of the Australian-Antarctic Discordance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritzwoller, M. H.; Shapiro, N. M.; Leahy, G. M.

2003-12-01

We present evidence for the existence of an Australian-Antarctic Mantle Anomaly (AAMA), which trends northwest-southeast (NW-SE) through the Australian-Antarctic Discordance (AAD) on the Southeast Indian Ridge (SEIR), is confined to the upper 120 km of the mantle beneath the AAD, and dips shallowly to the west so that it extends to a depth of about 150 km west of the AAD. Average temperatures within the AAMA are depressed about 100°C relative to surrounding lithosphere and suggest very rapid cooling of newly formed lithosphere at the AAD to an effective thermal age between 20 and 30 Ma. A convective down welling beneath the AAD is not consistent with the confinement of the AAMA in the uppermost mantle. In substantial agreement with the model of [1998], we argue that the AAMA is the suspended remnant of a slab that subducted at the Gondwanaland-Pacific convergent margin more than 100 Myr ago, foundered in the deeper mantle, and then ascended into the shallow mantle within the past 30 Myr, cutting any ties to deeper roots. The stability of the AAMA and its poor correlation with residual topography and gravity imply that it is approximately neutrally buoyant. The thermally induced density anomaly can be balanced by bulk iron depletion of less than 0.8%, consistent with the warmer conditions of formation for the Pacific than Indian lithosphere. We hypothesize that the low temperatures in the AAMA inhibit crustal formation and the AAD depth anomaly is formed at the intersection of the SEIR and the AAMA. The northward migration of the SEIR overriding the cold NW-SE trending AAMA therefore presents a simple kinematic explanation for both the V-shaped residual depth anomaly in the southeast Indian Ocean and the western migration of the AAD along the SEIR. Neither explanation requires the Pacific asthenospheric mantle to push westward and displace Indian asthenosphere. The AAMA may also act as a barrier to large-scale flows in the shallow asthenosphere and may therefore define a boundary for mantle convection and between the Indian and Pacific isotopic provinces. The westward dip of the AAMA would also favor along-axis flow from the Indian Ocean asthenosphere to the AAD that may contribute to the penetration of Indian Ocean mid-ocean ridge basalts into the AAD.

Evidence for Ring Structures and Fracture Zones in the Tectonics of Kerguelen Archipelago, Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathieu, L.; Byrne, P. K.; van Wyk de Vries, B.; Moine, B.

2009-12-01

Little work has been done on the tectonics of the emergent areas of the Kerguelen Archipelago, even though the extensive outcrop renders the islands especially good for structural work. The results of two field campaigns and remote sensing analysis carried out in the central part of the archipelago around the Val Travers valley and the Mt Ross volcano are presented. The Archipelago is part of the Kerguelen Plateau, a Large Igneous Province that has developed in the Indian Ocean from the early Cretaceous. It spread along the newly formed SE Indian mid-oceanic ridge (SEIR) during the early Tertiary. The rifting event produced NW-SE, N-S and E-W striking grabens in the plateau that are respectively, parallel to the SEIR, related to sinistral strike-slip movements along the SEIR, and of unknown origin. The Kerguelen Archipelago formed after the rifting event over the plateau but nevertheless, it contains the bulk of structural directions mentioned above. The lavas (Plateau Basalts) that make up most of the area are densely fractured, crossed by many veins and some small faults as well as dykes. The rare faults identified are either normal or affected by sinistral transtensional movements. The fractures have mainly a NW-SE orientation that is consistent with extension related to the SEIR. Dykes, veins and normal faults strike E-W and are related to a dominant N-S directed regional extension. The scarcity of discrete faults contrasts with the density of fractures and other lineaments that appear to cover the bulk of land exposed to remote sensing observations. Such structures were formed by regional deformation too small to produce large discrete faults. We also have found a 20 km-wide polygonal fracture pattern encircling Mt Ross Volcano. This structure could be linked to repeated deflation and inflation of the ground related to a buried intrusive complex. Again, the movements are too small to produce discrete faults. Instead, they produce a polygon of deformation whose edges are parallel to buried rifting faults re-activated by the vertical movements. This work outlines the structure of the central part of the Kerguelen Archipelago that is affected by regional stresses and is imprinted by local tectonic structures related to intrusive activity. Kerguelen provides a structural situation that can be compared with Iceland and also with volcano-tectonic structures on other planets.

The organisation of spatial and temporal relations in memory.

PubMed

Rondina, Renante; Curtiss, Kaitlin; Meltzer, Jed A; Barense, Morgan D; Ryan, Jennifer D

2017-04-01

Episodic memories are comprised of details of "where" and "when"; spatial and temporal relations, respectively. However, evidence from behavioural, neuropsychological, and neuroimaging studies has provided mixed interpretations about how memories for spatial and temporal relations are organised-they may be hierarchical, fully interactive, or independent. In the current study, we examined the interaction of memory for spatial and temporal relations. Using explicit reports and eye-tracking, we assessed younger and older adults' memory for spatial and temporal relations of objects that were presented singly across time in unique spatial locations. Explicit change detection of spatial relations was affected by a change in temporal relations, but explicit change detection of temporal relations was not affected by a change in spatial relations. Younger and older adults showed eye movement evidence of incidental memory for temporal relations, but only younger adults showed eye movement evidence of incidental memory for spatial relations. Together, these findings point towards a hierarchical organisation of relational memory. The implications of these findings are discussed in the context of the neural mechanisms that may support such a hierarchical organisation of memory.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of heat waves over China in regional climate simulations within the CORDEX-EA project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Pinya; Tang, Jianping; Sun, Xuguang; Liu, Jianyong; Juan, Fang

2018-03-01

Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal features of heat waves in 20-year regional climate simulations over East Asia, and investigates the capability of WRF to reproduce observational heat waves in China. Within the framework of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), the WRF model is driven by the ERA-Interim (ERAIN) reanalysis, and five continuous simulations are conducted from 1989 to 2008. Of these, four runs apply the interior spectral nudging (SN) technique with different wavenumbers, nudging variables and nudging coefficients. Model validations show that WRF can reasonably reproduce the spatiotemporal features of heat waves in China. Compared with the experiment without SN, the application of SN is effectie on improving the skill of the model in simulating both the spatial distributions and temporal variations of heat waves of different intensities. The WRF model shows advantages in reproducing the synoptic circulations with SN and therefore yields better representations for heat wave events. Besides, the SN method is able to preserve the variability of large-scale circulations quite well, which in turn adjusts the extreme temperature variability towards the observation. Among the four SN experiments, those with stronger nudging coefficients perform better in modulating both the spatial and temporal features of heat waves. In contrast, smaller nudging coefficients weaken the effects of SN on improving WRF's performances.

Unsteady wind loads for TMT: replacing parametric models with CFD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacMartin, Douglas G.; Vogiatzis, Konstantinos

2014-08-01

Unsteady wind loads due to turbulence inside the telescope enclosure result in image jitter and higher-order image degradation due to M1 segment motion. Advances in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) allow unsteady simulations of the flow around realistic telescope geometry, in order to compute the unsteady forces due to wind turbulence. These simulations can then be used to understand the characteristics of the wind loads. Previous estimates used a parametric model based on a number of assumptions about the wind characteristics, such as a von Karman spectrum and frozen-flow turbulence across M1, and relied on CFD only to estimate parameters such as mean wind speed and turbulent kinetic energy. Using the CFD-computed forces avoids the need for assumptions regarding the flow. We discuss here both the loads on the telescope that lead to image jitter, and the spatially-varying force distribution across the primary mirror, using simulations with the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) geometry. The amplitude, temporal spectrum, and spatial distribution of wind disturbances are all estimated; these are then used to compute the resulting image motion and degradation. There are several key differences relative to our earlier parametric model. First, the TMT enclosure provides sufficient wind reduction at the top end (near M2) to render the larger cross-sectional structural areas further inside the enclosure (including M1) significant in determining the overall image jitter. Second, the temporal spectrum is not von Karman as the turbulence is not fully developed; this applies both in predicting image jitter and M1 segment motion. And third, for loads on M1, the spatial characteristics are not consistent with propagating a frozen-flow turbulence screen across the mirror: Frozen flow would result in a relationship between temporal frequency content and spatial frequency content that does not hold in the CFD predictions. Incorporating the new estimates of wind load characteristics into TMT response predictions leads to revised estimates of the response of TMT to wind turbulence, and validates the aerodynamic design of the enclosure.

Spatial Structure of Evolutionary Models of Dialects in Contact

PubMed Central

Murawaki, Yugo

2015-01-01

Phylogenetic models, originally developed to demonstrate evolutionary biology, have been applied to a wide range of cultural data including natural language lexicons, manuscripts, folktales, material cultures, and religions. A fundamental question regarding the application of phylogenetic inference is whether trees are an appropriate approximation of cultural evolutionary history. Their validity in cultural applications has been scrutinized, particularly with respect to the lexicons of dialects in contact. Phylogenetic models organize evolutionary data into a series of branching events through time. However, branching events are typically not included in dialectological studies to interpret the distributions of lexical terms. Instead, dialectologists have offered spatial interpretations to represent lexical data. For example, new lexical items that emerge in a politico-cultural center are likely to spread to peripheries, but not vice versa. To explore the question of the tree model’s validity, we present a simple simulation model in which dialects form a spatial network and share lexical items through contact rather than through common ancestors. We input several network topologies to the model to generate synthetic data. We then analyze the synthesized data using conventional phylogenetic techniques. We found that a group of dialects can be considered tree-like even if it has not evolved in a temporally tree-like manner but has a temporally invariant, spatially tree-like structure. In addition, the simulation experiments appear to reproduce unnatural results observed in reconstructed trees for real data. These results motivate further investigation into the spatial structure of the evolutionary history of dialect lexicons as well as other cultural characteristics. PMID:26221958

Deadlines in space: Selective effects of coordinate spatial processing in multitasking.

PubMed

Todorov, Ivo; Del Missier, Fabio; Konke, Linn Andersson; Mäntylä, Timo

2015-11-01

Many everyday activities require coordination and monitoring of multiple deadlines. One way to handle these temporal demands might be to represent future goals and deadlines as a pattern of spatial relations. We examined the hypothesis that spatial ability, in addition to executive functioning, contributes to individual differences in multitasking. In two studies, participants completed a multitasking session in which they monitored four digital clocks running at different rates. In Study 1, we found that individual differences in spatial ability and executive functions were independent predictors of multiple-task performance. In Study 2, we found that individual differences in specific spatial abilities were selectively related to multiple-task performance, as only coordinate spatial processing, but not categorical, predicted multitasking, even beyond executive functioning and numeracy. In both studies, males outperformed females in spatial ability and multitasking and in Study 2 these sex differences generalized to a simulation of everyday multitasking. Menstrual changes moderated the effects on multitasking, in that sex differences in coordinate spatial processing and multitasking were observed between males and females in the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle, but not between males and females at menses. Overall, these findings suggest that multiple-task performance reflects independent contributions of spatial ability and executive functioning. Furthermore, our results support the distinction of categorical versus coordinate spatial processing, and suggest that these two basic relational processes are selectively affected by female sex hormones and differentially effective in transforming and handling temporal patterns as spatial relations in the context of multitasking.

An approach to evaluating the long-term effects of land use on landslides, erosion, and stream channels

Treesearch

Robert. R. Ziemer

1991-01-01

Summary - There is increasing concern about how land management practices influence the frequency of mass erosion and sedimentation over large temporal and spatial scales. Monte Carlo simulations can identify fruitful areas for continuing cooperation between scientists in the U.S.A. and Japan.

A simulation study to determine the attenuation and bias in health risk estimates due to exposure measurement error in bi-pollutant models

EPA Science Inventory

To understand the combined health effects of exposure to ambient air pollutant mixtures, it is becoming more common to include multiple pollutants in epidemiologic models. However, the complex spatial and temporal pattern of ambient pollutant concentrations and related exposures ...

Wildfire potential mapping over the state of Mississippi: A land surface modeling approach

Treesearch

William H. Cooke; Georgy V. Mostovoy; Valentine G. Anantharaj; W. Matt Jolly

2012-01-01

A relationship between the likelihood of wildfires and various drought metrics (soil moisture-based fire potential indices) were examined over the southern part of Mississippi. The following three indices were tested and used to simulate spatial and temporal wildfire probability changes: (1) the accumulated difference between daily precipitation and potential...

Issues of Spatial and Temporal Scale in Modeling the Effects of Field Operatiions on Soil Properties

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Tillage is an important procedure for modifying the soil environment in order to enhance crop growth and conserve soil and water resources. Process-based models of crop production are widely used in decision support, but few explicitly simulate tillage. The Cropping Systems Model (CSM) was modified ...

Using neutral models to identify constraints on low-severity fire regimes.

Treesearch

Donald McKenzie; Amy E. Hessl; Lara-Karena B. Kellogg

2006-01-01

Climate, topography, fuel loadings, and human activities all affect spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence. Because fire is modeled as a stochastic process, for which each fire history is only one realization, a simulation approach is necessary to understand baseline variability, thereby identifying constraints, or forcing functions, that affect fire regimes...

Hydrogeomorphological variability and ecological impacts in straight and restored river reach sections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schäppi, B.; Molnar, P.; Perona, P.; Tockner, K.; Burlando, P.

2009-04-01

Healthy floodplain ecosystems are characterized by high habitat diversity which tends to be lost in straightened channelized rivers. River restoration projects aim to increase habitat heterogeneity by re-establishing natural flow conditions and/or re-activating geomorphic processes in straightened reaches. The success of such projects is usually measured by means of structural and functional hydrogeomorphic and ecological indicators. Important indicators include flow variables and morphological features such as flow depth, velocity, shore line length, exposed gravel area and wetted river width. Also important are the rates at which these variables and features change under varying streamflow. A high spatial variability in the indicators is generally connected with high habitat diversity. The temporal availability and spatial distribution of both aquatic and riparian habitats control the composition and diversity of benthic organisms, fish, and riparian communities. Spatial heterogeneity provides refugia, i.e. areas from which recolonization after a disturbance event may occur. In addition, it facilitates the transfer of organisms and matter across the aquatic and terrestrial interface, thereby increasing the overall functional performance of coupled river-riparian ecosystems. However the habitat diversity can be maintained over time only if there are frequent disturbances such as periodic floods that reset the system and create new germination sites for pioneer vegetation and rework the channel bed to form new aquatic habitat. Therefore the flow and morphology indicators need to be investigated on spatial as well as on temporal scales. Traditionally, these indicators are measured in the field albeit most measurements can be carried out only at low flow conditions. We propose that flow simulations with a 2d hydrodynamic model may be used for a fast and convenient assessment of indicators of flow variables and morphological features with relatively little calibration required and we illustrate an example thereof. The advantage of using computer simulations as compared to field observations is that a range of discharges can be investigated. Using a flood frequency analysis the return period of simulated flows can be estimated and translated into frequency-dependent habitat types. In order to investigate how flow variables change, we conducted a series of 2d flow simulations at different flow rates along the prealpine Thur River (Switzerland) consisting of both restored and straight reaches. Restoration basically consisted of widening the river cross-section and allowing a natural morphology to form. The simulated flow variables (flow depth and velocity) were then analyzed separately for the two reaches. The distributions of the both variables for the restored reach were significantly different from the straight reach, most notably an increase in the variance was observed. In order to analyze the temporal variability we investigated the development of the riverbed morphology over time using different digital elevation models combined with cross section data measured at annual intervals. Spatially explicit erosion and deposition patterns were derived from this analysis. The riverbed topography at different dates was then used to analyze the temporal evolution of the flow indicators for the different flow conditions. Comparisons between the restored and straight reaches allow us to assess the success of river restoration in terms of flow variability and morphological complexity.

Hydrologic Evaluation of TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis for Nanliu River Basin in Humid Southwestern China.

PubMed

Zhao, Yinjun; Xie, Qiongying; Lu, Yuan; Hu, Baoqing

2017-06-01

The accuracy of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA) daily accumulated precipitation products (3B42RTV7 and 3B42V7) was evaluated for a small basin (the Nanliu river basin). A direct comparison was performed against gauge observations from a period of 9 years (2000-2009) at temporal and spatial scales. The results show that the temporal-spatial precipitation characteristics of the Nanliu river basin are highly consistent with 3B42V7 relative to 3B42RTV7, with higher correlation coefficient (CC) approximately 0.9 at all temporal scales except for the daily scale and a lower relative bias percentage. 3B42V7 slightly overestimates precipitation at all temporal scales except the yearly scale; it slightly underestimates the precipitation at the daily spatial scale. The results also reveal that the precision of TMPA products increases with longer time-aggregated data, and the detection capability of daily TMPA precipitation products are enhanced by augmentation with daily precipitation rates. In addition, daily TMPA products were input into the Xin'anjiang hydrologic model; the results show that 3B42V7-based simulated outputs were well in line with actual stream flow observations, with a high CC (0.90) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE, 0.79), and the results adequately captured the pattern of the observed flow curve.

Navigational strategies underlying phototaxis in larval zebrafish.

PubMed

Chen, Xiuye; Engert, Florian

2014-01-01

Understanding how the brain transforms sensory input into complex behavior is a fundamental question in systems neuroscience. Using larval zebrafish, we study the temporal component of phototaxis, which is defined as orientation decisions based on comparisons of light intensity at successive moments in time. We developed a novel "Virtual Circle" assay where whole-field illumination is abruptly turned off when the fish swims out of a virtually defined circular border, and turned on again when it returns into the circle. The animal receives no direct spatial cues and experiences only whole-field temporal light changes. Remarkably, the fish spends most of its time within the invisible virtual border. Behavioral analyses of swim bouts in relation to light transitions were used to develop four discrete temporal algorithms that transform the binary visual input (uniform light/uniform darkness) into the observed spatial behavior. In these algorithms, the turning angle is dependent on the behavioral history immediately preceding individual turning events. Computer simulations show that the algorithms recapture most of the swim statistics of real fish. We discovered that turning properties in larval zebrafish are distinctly modulated by temporal step functions in light intensity in combination with the specific motor history preceding these turns. Several aspects of the behavior suggest memory usage of up to 10 swim bouts (~10 sec). Thus, we show that a complex behavior like spatial navigation can emerge from a small number of relatively simple behavioral algorithms.

A new space-time characterization of Northern Hemisphere drought in model simulations of the past and future as compared to the paleoclimate record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coats, S.; Smerdon, J. E.; Stevenson, S.; Fasullo, J.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.

2017-12-01

The observational record, which provides only limited sampling of past climate variability, has made it difficult to quantitatively analyze the complex spatio-temporal character of drought. To provide a more complete characterization of drought, machine learning based methods that identify drought in three-dimensional space-time are applied to climate model simulations of the last millennium and future, as well as tree-ring based reconstructions of hydroclimate over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. A focus is given to the most persistent and severe droughts of the past 1000 years. Analyzing reconstructions and simulations in this context allows for a validation of the spatio-temporal character of persistent and severe drought in climate model simulations. Furthermore, the long records provided by the reconstructions and simulations, allows for sufficient sampling to constrain projected changes to the spatio-temporal character of these features using the reconstructions. Along these lines, climate models suggest that there will be large increases in the persistence and severity of droughts over the coming century, but little change in their spatial extent. These models, however, exhibit biases in the spatio-temporal character of persistent and severe drought over parts of the Northern Hemisphere, which may undermine their usefulness for future projections. Despite these limitations, and in contrast to previous claims, there are no systematic changes in the character of persistent and severe droughts in simulations of the historical interval. This suggests that climate models are not systematically overestimating the hydroclimate response to anthropogenic forcing over this period, with critical implications for confidence in hydroclimate projections.

Modeling the Impact of Spatial Structure on Growth Dynamics of Invasive Plant Species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, James T.; Johnson, Mark P.; Walshe, Ray

2013-07-01

Invasive nonindigenous plant species can have potentially serious detrimental effects on local ecosystems and, as a result, costly control efforts often have to be put in place to protect habitats. An example of an invasive problem on a global scale involves the salt marsh grass species from the genus Spartina. The spread of Spartina anglica in Europe and Asia has drawn much concern due to its ability to convert coastal habitats into cord-grass monocultures and to alter the native food webs. However, the patterns of invasion of Spartina species are amenable to spatially-explicit modeling strategies that take into account both temporal and spatio-temporal processes. In this study, an agent-based model of Spartina growth on a simulated mud flat environment was developed in order to study the effects of spatial pattern and initial seedling placement on the invasion dynamics of the population. The spatial pattern of an invasion plays a key role in the rate of spread of the species and understanding this can lead to significant cost savings when designing efficient control strategies. We present here a model framework that can be used to explicitly represent complex spatial and temporal patterns of invasion in order to be able to predict quantitatively the impact of these factors on invasion dynamics. This would be a useful tool for assessing eradication strategies and choosing optimal control solutions in order to be able to minimize future control costs.

Using Relative Position and Temporal Judgments to Assess the Effects of Texture and Field of View on Spatial Awareness for Synthetic Vision Systems Displays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolton, Matthew L.; Bass, Ellen J.; Comstock, James R., Jr.

2006-01-01

Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) depict computer generated views of terrain surrounding an aircraft. In the assessment of textures and field of view (FOV) for SVS, no studies have directly measured the 3 levels of spatial awareness: identification of terrain, its relative spatial location, and its relative temporal location. This work introduced spatial awareness measures and used them to evaluate texture and FOV in SVS displays. Eighteen pilots made 4 judgments (relative angle, distance, height, and abeam time) regarding the location of terrain points displayed in 112 5-second, non-interactive simulations of a SVS heads down display. Texture produced significant main effects and trends for the magnitude of error in the relative distance, angle, and abeam time judgments. FOV was significant for the directional magnitude of error in the relative distance, angle, and height judgments. Pilots also provided subjective terrain awareness ratings that were compared with the judgment based measures. The study found that elevation fishnet, photo fishnet, and photo elevation fishnet textures best supported spatial awareness for both the judgments and the subjective awareness measures.

Eddy current simulation in thick cylinders of finite length induced by coils of arbitrary geometry.

PubMed

Sanchez Lopez, Hector; Poole, Michael; Crozier, Stuart

2010-12-01

Eddy currents are inevitably induced when time-varying magnetic field gradients interact with the metallic structures of a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanner. The secondary magnetic field produced by this induced current degrades the spatial and temporal performance of the primary field generated by the gradient coils. Although this undesired effect can be minimized by using actively and/or passively shielded gradient coils and current pre-emphasis techniques, a residual eddy current still remains in the MRI scanner structure. Accurate simulation of these eddy currents is important in the successful design of gradient coils and magnet cryostat vessels. Efficient methods for simulating eddy currents are currently restricted to cylindrical-symmetry. The approach presented in this paper divides thick conducting cylinders into thin layers (thinner than the skin depth) and expresses the current density on each as a Fourier series. The coupling between each mode of the Fourier series with every other is modeled with an inductive network method. In this way, the eddy currents induced in realistic cryostat surfaces by coils of arbitrary geometry can be simulated. The new method was validated by simulating a canonical problem and comparing the results against a commercially available software package. An accurate skin depth of 2.76 mm was calculated in 6 min with the new method. The currents induced by an actively shielded x-gradient coil were simulated assuming a finite length cylindrical cryostat consisting of three different conducting materials. Details of the temporal-spatial induced current diffusion process were simulated through all cryostat layers, which could not be efficiently simulated with any other method. With this data, all quantities that depend on the current density, such as the secondary magnetic field, are simply evaluated. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

STSE: Spatio-Temporal Simulation Environment Dedicated to Biology.

PubMed

Stoma, Szymon; Fröhlich, Martina; Gerber, Susanne; Klipp, Edda

2011-04-28

Recently, the availability of high-resolution microscopy together with the advancements in the development of biomarkers as reporters of biomolecular interactions increased the importance of imaging methods in molecular cell biology. These techniques enable the investigation of cellular characteristics like volume, size and geometry as well as volume and geometry of intracellular compartments, and the amount of existing proteins in a spatially resolved manner. Such detailed investigations opened up many new areas of research in the study of spatial, complex and dynamic cellular systems. One of the crucial challenges for the study of such systems is the design of a well stuctured and optimized workflow to provide a systematic and efficient hypothesis verification. Computer Science can efficiently address this task by providing software that facilitates handling, analysis, and evaluation of biological data to the benefit of experimenters and modelers. The Spatio-Temporal Simulation Environment (STSE) is a set of open-source tools provided to conduct spatio-temporal simulations in discrete structures based on microscopy images. The framework contains modules to digitize, represent, analyze, and mathematically model spatial distributions of biochemical species. Graphical user interface (GUI) tools provided with the software enable meshing of the simulation space based on the Voronoi concept. In addition, it supports to automatically acquire spatial information to the mesh from the images based on pixel luminosity (e.g. corresponding to molecular levels from microscopy images). STSE is freely available either as a stand-alone version or included in the linux live distribution Systems Biology Operational Software (SB.OS) and can be downloaded from http://www.stse-software.org/. The Python source code as well as a comprehensive user manual and video tutorials are also offered to the research community. We discuss main concepts of the STSE design and workflow. We demonstrate it's usefulness using the example of a signaling cascade leading to formation of a morphological gradient of Fus3 within the cytoplasm of the mating yeast cell Saccharomyces cerevisiae. STSE is an efficient and powerful novel platform, designed for computational handling and evaluation of microscopic images. It allows for an uninterrupted workflow including digitization, representation, analysis, and mathematical modeling. By providing the means to relate the simulation to the image data it allows for systematic, image driven model validation or rejection. STSE can be scripted and extended using the Python language. STSE should be considered rather as an API together with workflow guidelines and a collection of GUI tools than a stand alone application. The priority of the project is to provide an easy and intuitive way of extending and customizing software using the Python language.

Using Matrix and Tensor Factorizations for the Single-Trial Analysis of Population Spike Trains.

PubMed

Onken, Arno; Liu, Jian K; Karunasekara, P P Chamanthi R; Delis, Ioannis; Gollisch, Tim; Panzeri, Stefano

2016-11-01

Advances in neuronal recording techniques are leading to ever larger numbers of simultaneously monitored neurons. This poses the important analytical challenge of how to capture compactly all sensory information that neural population codes carry in their spatial dimension (differences in stimulus tuning across neurons at different locations), in their temporal dimension (temporal neural response variations), or in their combination (temporally coordinated neural population firing). Here we investigate the utility of tensor factorizations of population spike trains along space and time. These factorizations decompose a dataset of single-trial population spike trains into spatial firing patterns (combinations of neurons firing together), temporal firing patterns (temporal activation of these groups of neurons) and trial-dependent activation coefficients (strength of recruitment of such neural patterns on each trial). We validated various factorization methods on simulated data and on populations of ganglion cells simultaneously recorded in the salamander retina. We found that single-trial tensor space-by-time decompositions provided low-dimensional data-robust representations of spike trains that capture efficiently both their spatial and temporal information about sensory stimuli. Tensor decompositions with orthogonality constraints were the most efficient in extracting sensory information, whereas non-negative tensor decompositions worked well even on non-independent and overlapping spike patterns, and retrieved informative firing patterns expressed by the same population in response to novel stimuli. Our method showed that populations of retinal ganglion cells carried information in their spike timing on the ten-milliseconds-scale about spatial details of natural images. This information could not be recovered from the spike counts of these cells. First-spike latencies carried the majority of information provided by the whole spike train about fine-scale image features, and supplied almost as much information about coarse natural image features as firing rates. Together, these results highlight the importance of spike timing, and particularly of first-spike latencies, in retinal coding.

Using Matrix and Tensor Factorizations for the Single-Trial Analysis of Population Spike Trains

PubMed Central

Onken, Arno; Liu, Jian K.; Karunasekara, P. P. Chamanthi R.; Delis, Ioannis; Gollisch, Tim; Panzeri, Stefano

2016-01-01

Advances in neuronal recording techniques are leading to ever larger numbers of simultaneously monitored neurons. This poses the important analytical challenge of how to capture compactly all sensory information that neural population codes carry in their spatial dimension (differences in stimulus tuning across neurons at different locations), in their temporal dimension (temporal neural response variations), or in their combination (temporally coordinated neural population firing). Here we investigate the utility of tensor factorizations of population spike trains along space and time. These factorizations decompose a dataset of single-trial population spike trains into spatial firing patterns (combinations of neurons firing together), temporal firing patterns (temporal activation of these groups of neurons) and trial-dependent activation coefficients (strength of recruitment of such neural patterns on each trial). We validated various factorization methods on simulated data and on populations of ganglion cells simultaneously recorded in the salamander retina. We found that single-trial tensor space-by-time decompositions provided low-dimensional data-robust representations of spike trains that capture efficiently both their spatial and temporal information about sensory stimuli. Tensor decompositions with orthogonality constraints were the most efficient in extracting sensory information, whereas non-negative tensor decompositions worked well even on non-independent and overlapping spike patterns, and retrieved informative firing patterns expressed by the same population in response to novel stimuli. Our method showed that populations of retinal ganglion cells carried information in their spike timing on the ten-milliseconds-scale about spatial details of natural images. This information could not be recovered from the spike counts of these cells. First-spike latencies carried the majority of information provided by the whole spike train about fine-scale image features, and supplied almost as much information about coarse natural image features as firing rates. Together, these results highlight the importance of spike timing, and particularly of first-spike latencies, in retinal coding. PMID:27814363

Comparing different snow products to assess spatio-temporal snow cover patterns in the Central Taurus Mountains, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sturm, K.; Helmschrot, J.

2013-12-01

Snow and its spatial and temporal patterns are important for catchment hydrology in the semi-arid eastern Mediterranean. Since most of the annual rainfall is stored as snow during winter and released during drier conditions in spring and summer, downstream regions of the Taurus Mountains relying on snow water temporarily stored in reservoirs for agricultural use are heavily dependent on the timing of snowmelt discharge. Runoff is controlled by the amount of accumulated snow, its distribution, and the climatic conditions controlling spring snowmelt. Thus, knowledge about spatial and temporal snow cover dynamics is essential for sustainable water resources management. The lack of observations in high-altitude regions reinforces the application of different snow products for a better assessment of spatio-temporal snow cover patterns. To better assess the quality of such products, simulated daily snow cover and EO-based snow cover products were compared for the Egribuk subcatchment, in the Central Taurus Mountains, Turkey. Daily information on snow cover, depths, and snow water equivalent was derived from distributed hydrological modeling using the J2000 model. Furthermore, 8-day MODIS snow cover data from Terra (MOD10A2) and Aqua (MYD10A2) satellites at a spatial resolution of 500 m were synchronized to receive cloud-free images. From this effort, 253 images covering the period between 07/04/2002 and 12/27/2007 were used for further analyses. The products were analyzed individually to determine the number of snow-covered days in relation to freezing days, spring snowmelt onsets, and temporal patterns, reflecting the effect of altitude on the percentage snow-covered area (SCA) along a topographic gradient at various time-steps. Monthly and 8-day spatial patterns of a single snow season were also examined. When SCA peaks at all altitudes, in February and March, the results of both products show a good agreement regarding SCA extent. In contrast, the extent of SCA differs notably during snow accumulation and ablation periods, the highest deviations occurring in December, April, and May. The highest SCA inconsistencies are observed in the low and mid altitudes, whereas the higher elevations are snow-covered very early in the snow season as modeled by J2000. During these periods, J2000 simulates a significantly larger SCA than MODIS. The analysis of individual time steps suggests that the J2000 daily model does capture individual snow events, whereas the MODIS products fail to do so due to their temporal resolution. Furthermore, acquisition time and inner-daily melt and re-freezing effects may affect SCA estimates from MODIS data. In other cases, differences can clearly be associated to insufficient model input data, primarily due to limited spatial precipitation and temperature data. Our study indicates that individual products might provide inconsistent information on temporal and spatial snow cover. We recommend considering a combined analysis of different snow products in order to provide reliable information on snow cover dynamics, in particular in eastern Mediterranean high-altitude environments.

Synchronization Tomography: Modeling and Exploring Complex Brain Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fieseler, Thomas

2002-03-01

Phase synchronization (PS) plays an important role both under physiological and pathological conditions. With standard averaging techniques of MEG data, it is difficult to reliably detect cortico-cortical and cortico-muscular PS processes that are not time-locked to an external stimulus. For this reason, novel synchronization analysis techniques were developed and directly applied to MEG signals. Of course, due to the lack of an inverse modeling (i.e. source localization), the spatial resolution of this approach was limited. To detect and localize cerebral PS, we here present the synchronization tomography (ST): For this, we first estimate the cerebral current source density by means of the magnetic field tomography (MFT). We then apply the single-run PS analysis to the current source density in each voxel of the reconstruction space. In this way we study simulated PS, voxel by voxel in order to determine the spatio-temporal resolution of the ST. To this end different generators of ongoing rhythmic cerebral activity are simulated by current dipoles at different locations and directions, which are modeled by slightly detuned chaotic oscillators. MEG signals for these generators are simulated for a spherical head model and a whole-head MEG system. MFT current density solutions are calculated from these simulated signals within a hemispherical source space. We compare the spatial resolution of the ST with that of the MFT. Our results show that adjacent sources which are indistinguishable for the MFT, can nevertheless be separated with the ST, provided they are not strongly phase synchronized. This clearly demonstrates the potential of combining spatial information (i.e. source localization) with temporal information for the anatomical localization of phase synchronization in the human brain.

The effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of four animal species in a Danish landscape

PubMed Central

Sibly, Richard M; Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Forchhammer, Mads C; Forbes, Valery E; Topping, Christopher J

2009-01-01

Background Variation in carrying capacity and population return rates is generally ignored in traditional studies of population dynamics. Variation is hard to study in the field because of difficulties controlling the environment in order to obtain statistical replicates, and because of the scale and expense of experimenting on populations. There may also be ethical issues. To circumvent these problems we used detailed simulations of the simultaneous behaviours of interacting animals in an accurate facsimile of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of skylarks Alauda arvensis, voles Microtus agrestis, a ground beetle Bembidion lampros and a linyphiid spider Erigone atra. This allows us to quantify and evaluate the importance of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of the four species. Results Both spatial and temporal heterogeneity affected the relationship between population growth rate and population density in all four species. Spatial heterogeneity accounted for 23–30% of the variance in population growth rate after accounting for the effects of density, reflecting big differences in local carrying capacity associated with the landscape features important to individual species. Temporal heterogeneity accounted for 3–13% of the variance in vole, skylark and spider, but 43% in beetles. The associated temporal variation in carrying capacity would be problematic in traditional analyses of density dependence. Return rates were less than one in all species and essentially invariant in skylarks, spiders and beetles. Return rates varied over the landscape in voles, being slower where there were larger fluctuations in local population sizes. Conclusion Our analyses estimated the traditional parameters of carrying capacities and return rates, but these are now seen as varying continuously over the landscape depending on habitat quality and the mechanisms of density dependence. The importance of our results lies in our demonstration that the effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity must be accounted for if we are to have accurate predictive models for use in management and conservation. This is an area which until now has lacked an adequate theoretical framework and methodology. PMID:19549327

Discovery and Distribution of Black Smokers on the Western Galapagos Spreading Center: Implications for Spatial and Temporal Controls on High Temperature Venting at Ridge/Hotspot Intersections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haymon, R. M.; Anderson, P. G.; Baker, E. T.; Resing, J. A.; White, S. M.; MacDonald, K. C.

2006-12-01

Though nearly one-fifth of the mid-ocean ridge (MOR) lies on or near hotspots, it has been debated whether hotspots increase or decrease MOR hydrothermal flux, or affect vent biota. Despite hotspot enhancement of melt supply, high-temperature vent plumes are enigmatically sparse along two previously-surveyed ridge- hotspot intersections [Reykjanes Ridge (RR), Southeast Indian Ridge (SEIR)]. This has been attributed to crustal thickening by excess volcanism. During the 2005-06 GalAPAGoS expedition, we conducted nested sonar, plume, and camera surveys along a 540 km-long portion of the Galapagos Spreading Center (GSC) where the ridge intersects the Galapagos hotspot at lon. 94.5 -89.5 deg. W. Although MOR hydrothermal springs were first found along the eastern GSC crest in 1977 near lon. 86 deg. W, the GalAPAGoS smokers are the first active high-temperature vents to be found anywhere along the Cocos-Nazca plate boundary. Active and/or recently-inactive smokers were located beneath plumes at 5 sites on the seafloor between lon. 91 deg. W and 94.5 deg. W (see Anderson et al., this session) during near-bottom, real-time fiber-optic Medea camera surveys. Smokers occur along eruptive seafloor fissures atop axial volcanic ridges near the middles of ridge segments, mainly in areas underlain by relatively shallow, continuous axial magma chamber (AMC) seismic reflectors. These findings (1) support magmatic, rather than tectonic, control of GSC smoker distribution; (2) demonstrate that thick crust at MOR-hotspot intersections does not prevent high-temperature hydrothermal vents from forming; and, (3) appear to be inconsistent with models suggesting that enhanced hydrothermal cooling causes abrupt deepening of the AMC and transition from non-rifted to rifted GSC morphology near lon. 92.7 deg. W. The widely-spaced smoker sites located on different GSC segments exhibit remarkably similar characteristics and seafloor settings. Most sites are mature or extinct, and are on lava flows of visually-similar ages (estimated to be tens-to-hundreds of years old). Possibly a volcanic pulse may have activated the hotspot- affected western GSC, and powered contemporaneous hydrothermal vents that now are waning. It may be that hotspots produce episodes of near-synchronous, extensive ridge volcanism and hydrothermal activity, followed by periods of quiescence. This idea is consistent with: the episodic eruption histories of Hawaii and Iceland; variably anomalous hydrothermal plume incidence (low on RR, SEIR, GSC; high on Mid-Atlantic Ridge near Azores hotspot); models of episodic melt extraction from mantle plumes; and evidence for magma propagation along hotspot-influenced ridges. Our hypothesis potentially can be tested by studies of gene flow between animal communities located on either side of the Galapagos hotspot, and by dating of GSC hydrothermal chimneys and the lava flows on which they are constructed.

View-sharing PROPELLER with pixel-based optimal blade selection: application on dynamic contrast-enhanced imaging.

PubMed

Chuang, Tzu-Chao; Huang, Hsuan-Hung; Chang, Hing-Chiu; Wu, Ming-Ting

2014-06-01

To achieve better spatial and temporal resolution of dynamic contrast-enhanced MR imaging, the concept of k-space data sharing, or view sharing, can be implemented for PROPELLER acquisition. As found in other view-sharing methods, the loss of high-resolution dynamics is possible for view-sharing PROPELLER (VS-Prop) due to the temporal smoothing effect. The degradation can be more severe when a narrow blade with less phase encoding steps is chosen in the acquisition for higher frame rate. In this study, an iterative algorithm termed pixel-based optimal blade selection (POBS) is proposed to allow spatially dependent selection of the rotating blades, to generate high-resolution dynamic images with minimal reconstruction artifacts. In the reconstruction of VS-Prop, the central k-space which dominates the image contrast is only provided by the target blade with the peripheral k-space contributed by a minimal number of consecutive rotating blades. To reduce the reconstruction artifacts, the set of neighboring blades exhibiting the closest image contrast with the target blade is picked by POBS algorithm. Numerical simulations and phantom experiments were conducted in this study to investigate the dynamic response and spatial profiles of images generated using our proposed method. In addition, dynamic contrast-enhanced cardiovascular imaging of healthy subjects was performed to demonstrate the feasibility and advantages. The simulation results show that POBS VS-Prop can provide timely dynamic response to rapid signal change, especially for a small region of interest or with the use of narrow blades. The POBS algorithm also demonstrates its capability to capture nonsimultaneous signal changes over the entire FOV. In addition, both phantom and in vivo experiments show that the temporal smoothing effect can be avoided by means of POBS, leading to higher wash-in slope of contrast enhancement after the bolus injection. With the satisfactory reconstruction quality provided by the POBS algorithm, VS-Prop acquisition technique may find useful clinical applications in DCE MR imaging studies where both spatial and temporal resolutions play important roles.

Definition of SMOS Level 3 Land Products for the Villafranca del Castillo Data Processing Centre (CP34)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez-Baeza, E.; Monsoriu Torres, A.; Font, J.; Alonso, O.

2009-04-01

The ESA SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) Mission is planned to be launched in July 2009. The satellite will measure soil moisture over the continents and surface salinity of the oceans at resolutions that are sufficient for climatological-type studies. This paper describes the procedure to be used at the Spanish SMOS Level 3 and 4 Data Processing Centre (CP34) to generate Soil Moisture and other Land Surface Product maps from SMOS Level 2 data. This procedure can be used to map Soil Moisture, Vegetation Water Content and Soil Dielectric Constant data into different pre-defined spatial grids with fixed temporal frequency. The L3 standard Land Surface Products to be generated at CP34 are: Soil Moisture products: maximum spatial resolution with no spatial averaging, temporal averaging of 3 days, daily generation maximum spatial resolution with no spatial averaging, temporal averaging of 10 days, generation frequency of once every 10 days. b': maximum spatial resolution with no spatial averaging, temporal averaging of monthly decades (1st to 10th of the month, 11th to 20th of the month, 21st to last day of the month), generation frequency of once every decade monthly average, temporal averaging from L3 decade averages, monthly generation Seasonal average, temporal averaging from L3 monthly averages, seasonally generation yearly average, temporal averaging from L3 monthly averages, yearly generation Vegetation Water Content products: maximum spatial resolution with no spatial averaging, temporal averaging of 10 days, generation frequency of once every 10 days. a': maximum spatial resolution with no spatial averaging, temporal averaging of monthly decades (1st to 10th of the month, 11th to 20th of the month, 21st to last day of the month) using simple averaging method over the L2 products in ISEA grid, generation frequency of once every decade monthly average, temporal averaging from L3 decade averages, monthly generation seasonal average, temporal averaging from L3 monthly averages, seasonally generation yearly average, temporal averaging from L3 monthly averages, yearly generation Dielectric Constant products: (the dielectric constant products are delivered together with soil moisture products, with the same averaging periods and generation frequency): maximum spatial resolution with no spatial averaging, temporal averaging of 3 days, daily generation maximum spatial resolution with no spatial averaging, temporal averaging of 10 days, generation frequency of once every 10 days. b': maximum spatial resolution with no spatial averaging, temporal averaging of monthly decades (1st to 10th of the month, 11th to 20th of the month, 21st to last day of the month), generation frequency of once every decade monthly average, temporal averaging from L3 decade averages, monthly generation seasonal average, temporal averaging from L3 monthly averages, seasonally generation yearly average, temporal averaging from L3 monthly averages, yearly generation.

A novel stochastic modeling method to simulate cooling loads in residential districts

DOE PAGES

An, Jingjing; Yan, Da; Hong, Tianzhen; ...

2017-09-04

District cooling systems are widely used in urban residential communities in China. Most of such systems are oversized, which leads to wasted investment, low operational efficiency and, thus, waste of energy. The accurate prediction of district cooling loads that can support the rightsizing of cooling plant equipment remains a challenge. This study develops a novel stochastic modeling method that consists of (1) six prototype house models representing most apartments in a district, (2) occupant behavior models of residential buildings reflecting their spatial and temporal diversity as well as their complexity based on a large-scale residential survey in China, and (3)more » a stochastic sampling process to represent all apartments and occupants in the district. The stochastic method was applied to a case study using the Designer's Simulation Toolkit (DeST) to simulate the cooling loads of a residential district in Wuhan, China. The simulation results agreed well with the measured data based on five performance metrics representing the aggregated cooling consumption, the peak cooling loads, the spatial load distribution, the temporal load distribution and the load profiles. Two prevalent simulation methods were also employed to simulate the district cooling loads. Here, the results showed that oversimplified assumptions about occupant behavior could lead to significant overestimation of the peak cooling load and the total cooling loads in the district. Future work will aim to simplify the workflow and data requirements of the stochastic method for its application, and to explore its use in predicting district heating loads and in commercial or mixed-use districts.« less

A novel stochastic modeling method to simulate cooling loads in residential districts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

An, Jingjing; Yan, Da; Hong, Tianzhen

District cooling systems are widely used in urban residential communities in China. Most of such systems are oversized, which leads to wasted investment, low operational efficiency and, thus, waste of energy. The accurate prediction of district cooling loads that can support the rightsizing of cooling plant equipment remains a challenge. This study develops a novel stochastic modeling method that consists of (1) six prototype house models representing most apartments in a district, (2) occupant behavior models of residential buildings reflecting their spatial and temporal diversity as well as their complexity based on a large-scale residential survey in China, and (3)more » a stochastic sampling process to represent all apartments and occupants in the district. The stochastic method was applied to a case study using the Designer's Simulation Toolkit (DeST) to simulate the cooling loads of a residential district in Wuhan, China. The simulation results agreed well with the measured data based on five performance metrics representing the aggregated cooling consumption, the peak cooling loads, the spatial load distribution, the temporal load distribution and the load profiles. Two prevalent simulation methods were also employed to simulate the district cooling loads. Here, the results showed that oversimplified assumptions about occupant behavior could lead to significant overestimation of the peak cooling load and the total cooling loads in the district. Future work will aim to simplify the workflow and data requirements of the stochastic method for its application, and to explore its use in predicting district heating loads and in commercial or mixed-use districts.« less

Spatiotemporal dynamics of landscape pattern and hydrologic process in watershed systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randhir, Timothy O.; Tsvetkova, Olga

2011-06-01

SummaryLand use change is influenced by spatial and temporal factors that interact with watershed resources. Modeling these changes is critical to evaluate emerging land use patterns and to predict variation in water quantity and quality. The objective of this study is to model the nature and emergence of spatial patterns in land use and water resource impacts using a spatially explicit and dynamic landscape simulation. Temporal changes are predicted using a probabilistic Markovian process and spatial interaction through cellular automation. The MCMC (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) analysis with cellular automation is linked to hydrologic equations to simulate landscape patterns and processes. The spatiotemporal watershed dynamics (SWD) model is applied to a subwatershed in the Blackstone River watershed of Massachusetts to predict potential land use changes and expected runoff and sediment loading. Changes in watershed land use and water resources are evaluated over 100 years at a yearly time step. Results show high potential for rapid urbanization that could result in lowering of groundwater recharge and increased storm water peaks. The watershed faces potential decreases in agricultural and forest area that affect open space and pervious cover of the watershed system. Water quality deteriorated due to increased runoff which can also impact stream morphology. While overland erosion decreased, instream erosion increased from increased runoff from urban areas. Use of urban best management practices (BMPs) in sensitive locations, preventive strategies, and long-term conservation planning will be useful in sustaining the watershed system.

Electro-optical design of a long slit streak tube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Liping; Tian, Jinshou; Wen, Wenlong; Chen, Ping; Wang, Xing; Hui, Dandan; Wang, Junfeng

2017-11-01

A small size and long slit streak tube with high spatial resolution was designed and optimized. Curved photocathode and screen were adopted to increase the photocathode working area and spatial resolution. High physical temporal resolution obtained by using a slit accelerating electrode. Deflection sensitivity of the streak tube was improved by adopting two-folded deflection plates. The simulations indicate that the photocathode effective working area can reach 30mm × 5mm. The static spatial resolution is higher than 40lp/mm and 12lp/mm along scanning and slit directions respectively while the physical temporal resolution is higher than 60ps. The magnification is 0.75 and 0.77 in scanning and slit directions. And also, the deflection sensitivity is as high as 37mm/kV. The external dimension of the streak tube are only ∅74mm×231mm. Thus, it can be applied to laser imaging radar system for large field of view and high range precision detection.

Spatial and temporal order memory in Korsakoff patients.

PubMed

Postma, Albert; Van Asselen, Marieke; Keuper, Olga; Wester, Arie J; Kessels, Roy P C

2006-05-01

This study directly compared how well Korsakoff patients can process spatial and temporal order information in memory under conditions that included presentation of only a single feature (i.e., temporal or spatial information), combined spatiotemporal presentation, and combined spatiotemporal order recall. Korsakoff patients were found to suffer comparable spatial and temporal order recall deficits. Of interest, recall of a single feature was the same when only spatial or temporal information was presented compared to conditions that included combined spatiotemporal, presentation and recall. In contrast, control participants performed worse when they have to recall both spatial and temporal order compared to when they have to recall only one of these features. These findings together indicate that spatial and temporal information are not automatically integrated. Korsakoff patients have profound problems in coding the feature at hand. Moreover, their lower recall of both features at the same time suggests that Korsakoff patients are impaired in binding different contextual attributes together in memory.

Spatial and Temporal Variations of a Screening Current Induced Magnetic Field in a Double-Pancake HTS Insert of an LTS/HTS NMR Magnet

PubMed Central

Ahn, Min Cheol; Yagai, Tsuyoshi; Hahn, Seungyong; Ando, Ryuya; Bascuñán, Juan; Iwasa, Yukikazu

2010-01-01

This paper presents experimental and simulation results of a screening current induced magnetic field (SCF) in a high temperature superconductor (HTS) insert that constitutes a low-/high-temperature superconductor (LTS/HTS) NMR magnet. In this experiment, the HTS insert, a stack of 50 double-pancake coils, each wound with Bi2223 tape, was operated at 77 K. A screening current was induced in the HTS insert by three magnetic field sources: 1) a self field from the HTS insert; 2) an external field from a 5-T background magnet; and 3) combinations of 1) and 2). For each field excitation, which induced an SCF, its axial field distribution and temporal variations were measured and compared with simulation results based on the critical state model. Agreement on field profile between experiment and simulation is satisfactory but more work is needed to make the simulation useful for designing shim coils that will cancel the SCF. PMID:20401187

Stationarity of the Tropical Pacific Teleconnection to North America in CMIP5 PMIP3 Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Seager, Richard

2013-01-01

The temporal stationarity of the teleconnection between the tropical Pacific Ocean and North America (NA) is analyzed in atmosphere-only, and coupled last-millennium, historical, and control runs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 data archive. The teleconnection, defined as the correlation between December-January-February (DJF) tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and DJF 200 mb geopotential height, is found to be nonstationary on multidecadal timescales. There are significant changes in the spatial features of the teleconnection over NA in continuous 56-year segments of the last millennium and control simulations. Analysis of atmosphere-only simulations forced with observed SSTs indicates that atmospheric noise cannot account for the temporal variability of the teleconnection, which instead is likely explained by the strength of, and multidecadal changes in, tropical Pacific Ocean variability. These results have implications for teleconnection-based analyses of model fidelity in simulating precipitation, as well as any reconstruction and forecasting efforts that assume stationarity of the observed teleconnection.

High speed imaging of dynamic processes with a switched source x-ray CT system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, William M.; Lionheart, William R. B.; Morton, Edward J.; Cunningham, Mike; Luggar, Russell D.

2015-05-01

Conventional x-ray computed tomography (CT) scanners are limited in their scanning speed by the mechanical constraints of their rotating gantries and as such do not provide the necessary temporal resolution for imaging of fast-moving dynamic processes, such as moving fluid flows. The Real Time Tomography (RTT) system is a family of fast cone beam CT scanners which instead use multiple fixed discrete sources and complete rings of detectors in an offset geometry. We demonstrate the potential of this system for use in the imaging of such high speed dynamic processes and give results using simulated and real experimental data. The unusual scanning geometry results in some challenges in image reconstruction, which are overcome using algebraic iterative reconstruction techniques and explicit regularisation. Through the use of a simple temporal regularisation term and by optimising the source firing pattern, we show that temporal resolution of the system may be increased at the expense of spatial resolution, which may be advantageous in some situations. Results are given showing temporal resolution of approximately 500 µs with simulated data and 3 ms with real experimental data.

A refined 2010-based VOC emission inventory and its improvement on modeling regional ozone in the Pearl River Delta Region, China.

PubMed

Yin, Shasha; Zheng, Junyu; Lu, Qing; Yuan, Zibing; Huang, Zhijiong; Zhong, Liuju; Lin, Hui

2015-05-01

Accurate and gridded VOC emission inventories are important for improving regional air quality model performance. In this study, a four-level VOC emission source categorization system was proposed. A 2010-based gridded Pearl River Delta (PRD) regional VOC emission inventory was developed with more comprehensive source coverage, latest emission factors, and updated activity data. The total anthropogenic VOC emission was estimated to be about 117.4 × 10(4)t, in which on-road mobile source shared the largest contribution, followed by industrial solvent use and industrial processes sources. Among the industrial solvent use source, furniture manufacturing and shoemaking were major VOC emission contributors. The spatial surrogates of VOC emission were updated for major VOC sources such as industrial sectors and gas stations. Subsector-based temporal characteristics were investigated and their temporal variations were characterized. The impacts of updated VOC emission estimates and spatial surrogates were evaluated by modeling O₃ concentration in the PRD region in the July and October of 2010, respectively. The results indicated that both updated emission estimates and spatial allocations can effectively reduce model bias on O₃ simulation. Further efforts should be made on the refinement of source classification, comprehensive collection of activity data, and spatial-temporal surrogates in order to reduce uncertainty in emission inventory and improve model performance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal scaling and spatial statistical analyses of groundwater level fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, H.; Yuan, L., Sr.; Zhang, Y.

2017-12-01

Natural dynamics such as groundwater level fluctuations can exhibit multifractionality and/or multifractality due likely to multi-scale aquifer heterogeneity and controlling factors, whose statistics requires efficient quantification methods. This study explores multifractionality and non-Gaussian properties in groundwater dynamics expressed by time series of daily level fluctuation at three wells located in the lower Mississippi valley, after removing the seasonal cycle in the temporal scaling and spatial statistical analysis. First, using the time-scale multifractional analysis, a systematic statistical method is developed to analyze groundwater level fluctuations quantified by the time-scale local Hurst exponent (TS-LHE). Results show that the TS-LHE does not remain constant, implying the fractal-scaling behavior changing with time and location. Hence, we can distinguish the potentially location-dependent scaling feature, which may characterize the hydrology dynamic system. Second, spatial statistical analysis shows that the increment of groundwater level fluctuations exhibits a heavy tailed, non-Gaussian distribution, which can be better quantified by a Lévy stable distribution. Monte Carlo simulations of the fluctuation process also show that the linear fractional stable motion model can well depict the transient dynamics (i.e., fractal non-Gaussian property) of groundwater level, while fractional Brownian motion is inadequate to describe natural processes with anomalous dynamics. Analysis of temporal scaling and spatial statistics therefore may provide useful information and quantification to understand further the nature of complex dynamics in hydrology.

GIS-based analysis and modelling with empirical and remotely-sensed data on coastline advance and retreat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Sajid Rashid

With the understanding that far more research remains to be done on the development and use of innovative and functional geospatial techniques and procedures to investigate coastline changes this thesis focussed on the integration of remote sensing, geographical information systems (GIS) and modelling techniques to provide meaningful insights on the spatial and temporal dynamics of coastline changes. One of the unique strengths of this research was the parameterization of the GIS with long-term empirical and remote sensing data. Annual empirical data from 1941--2007 were analyzed by the GIS, and then modelled with statistical techniques. Data were also extracted from Landsat TM and ETM+ images. The band ratio method was used to extract the coastlines. Topographic maps were also used to extract digital map data. All data incorporated into ArcGIS 9.2 were analyzed with various modules, including Spatial Analyst, 3D Analyst, and Triangulated Irregular Networks. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System was used to analyze and predict rates of coastline change. GIS results showed the spatial locations along the coast that will either advance or retreat over time. The linear regression results highlighted temporal changes which are likely to occur along the coastline. Box-Jenkins modelling procedures were utilized to determine statistical models which best described the time series (1941--2007) of coastline change data. After several iterations and goodness-of-fit tests, second-order spatial cyclic autoregressive models, first-order autoregressive models and autoregressive moving average models were identified as being appropriate for describing the deterministic and random processes operating in Guyana's coastal system. The models highlighted not only cyclical patterns in advance and retreat of the coastline, but also the existence of short and long-term memory processes. Long-term memory processes could be associated with mudshoal propagation and stabilization while short-term memory processes were indicative of transitory hydrodynamic and other processes. An innovative framework for a spatio-temporal information-based system (STIBS) was developed. STIBS incorporated diverse datasets within a GIS, dynamic computer-based simulation models, and a spatial information query and graphical subsystem. Tests of the STIBS proved that it could be used to simulate and visualize temporal variability in shifting morphological states of the coastline.

Disease Spread and Its Effect on Population Dynamics in Heterogeneous Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Roy, Parimita

In this paper, an eco-epidemiological model in which both species diffuse along a spatial gradient has been shown to exhibit temporal chaos at a fixed point in space. The proposed model is a modification of the model recently presented by Upadhyay and Roy [2014]. The spatial interactions among the species have been represented in the form of reaction-diffusion equations. The model incorporates the intrinsic growth rate of fish population which varies linearly with the depth of water. Numerical results show that diffusion can drive otherwise stable system into aperiodic behavior with sensitivity to initial conditions. We show that spatially induced chaos plays an important role in spatial pattern formation in heterogeneous environment. Spatiotemporal distributions of species have been simulated using the diffusivity assumptions realistic for natural eco-epidemic systems. We found that in heterogeneous environment, the temporal dynamics of both the species are drastically different and show chaotic behavior. It was also found that the instability observed in the model is due to spatial heterogeneity and diffusion-driven. Cumulative death rate of predator has an appreciable effect on model dynamics as the spatial distribution of all constituent populations exhibit significant changes when this model parameter is changed and it acts as a regularizing factor.

Development of the Hydrological-Ecological Integrated watershed Flow Model (HEIFLOW): an application to the Heihe River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Y.; Zheng, Y.; Zheng, C.; Han, F., Sr.

2017-12-01

Physically based and fully-distributed integrated hydrological models (IHMs) can quantitatively depict hydrological processes, both surface and subsurface, with sufficient spatial and temporal details. However, the complexity involved in pre-processing data and setting up models seriously hindered the wider application of IHMs in scientific research and management practice. This study introduces our design and development of Visual HEIFLOW, hereafter referred to as VHF, a comprehensive graphical data processing and modeling system for integrated hydrological simulation. The current version of VHF has been structured to accommodate an IHM named HEIFLOW (Hydrological-Ecological Integrated watershed-scale FLOW model). HEIFLOW is a model being developed by the authors, which has all typical elements of physically based and fully-distributed IHMs. It is based on GSFLOW, a representative integrated surface water-groundwater model developed by USGS. HEIFLOW provides several ecological modules that enable to simulate growth cycle of general vegetation and special plants (maize and populus euphratica). VHF incorporates and streamlines all key steps of the integrated modeling, and accommodates all types of GIS data necessary to hydrological simulation. It provides a GIS-based data processing framework to prepare an IHM for simulations, and has functionalities to flexibly display and modify model features (e.g., model grids, streams, boundary conditions, observational sites, etc.) and their associated data. It enables visualization and various spatio-temporal analyses of all model inputs and outputs at different scales (i.e., computing unit, sub-basin, basin, or user-defined spatial extent). The above system features, as well as many others, can significantly reduce the difficulty and time cost of building and using a complex IHM. The case study in the Heihe River Basin demonstrated the applicability of VHF for large scale integrated SW-GW modeling. Visualization and spatial-temporal analysis of the modeling results by HEIFLOW greatly facilitates our understanding on the complicated hydrologic cycle and relationship among the hydrological and ecological variables in the study area, and provides insights into the regional water resources management.

Modeling Spatial and Temporal Variability in Ammonia Emissions from Agricultural Fertilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balasubramanian, S.; Koloutsou-Vakakis, S.; Rood, M. J.

2013-12-01

Ammonia (NH3), is an important component of the reactive nitrogen cycle and a precursor to formation of atmospheric particulate matter (PM). Predicting regional PM concentrations and deposition of nitrogen species to ecosystems requires representative emission inventories. Emission inventories have traditionally been developed using top down approaches and more recently from data assimilation based on satellite and ground based ambient concentrations and wet deposition data. The National Emission Inventory (NEI) indicates agricultural fertilization as the predominant contributor (56%) to NH3 emissions in Midwest USA, in 2002. However, due to limited understanding of the complex interactions between fertilizer usage, farm practices, soil and meteorological conditions and absence of detailed statistical data, such emission estimates are currently based on generic emission factors, time-averaged temporal factors and coarse spatial resolution. Given the significance of this source, our study focuses on developing an improved NH3 emission inventory for agricultural fertilization at finer spatial and temporal scales for air quality modeling studies. Firstly, a high-spatial resolution 4 km x 4 km NH3 emission inventory for agricultural fertilization has been developed for Illinois by modifying spatial allocation of emissions based on combining crop-specific fertilization rates with cropland distribution in the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions model. Net emission estimates of our method are within 2% of NEI, since both methods are constrained by fertilizer sales data. However, we identified localized crop-specific NH3 emission hotspots at sub-county resolutions absent in NEI. Secondly, we have adopted the use of the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) Biogeochemistry model to simulate the physical and chemical processes that control volatilization of nitrogen as NH3 to the atmosphere after fertilizer application and resolve the variability at the hourly scale. Representative temporal factors are being developed to capture crop-specific NH3 emission variability by combining knowledge of local crop management practices with high resolution cropland and soil maps. This improved spatially and temporally dependent NH3 emission inventory for agricultural fertilization is being prepared as a direct input to a state of the art air quality model to evaluate the effects of agricultural fertilization on regional air quality and atmospheric deposition of reactive nitrogen species.

Trap configuration and spacing influences parameter estimates in spatial capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sun, Catherine C.; Fuller, Angela K.; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

An increasing number of studies employ spatial capture-recapture models to estimate population size, but there has been limited research on how different spatial sampling designs and trap configurations influence parameter estimators. Spatial capture-recapture models provide an advantage over non-spatial models by explicitly accounting for heterogeneous detection probabilities among individuals that arise due to the spatial organization of individuals relative to sampling devices. We simulated black bear (Ursus americanus) populations and spatial capture-recapture data to evaluate the influence of trap configuration and trap spacing on estimates of population size and a spatial scale parameter, sigma, that relates to home range size. We varied detection probability and home range size, and considered three trap configurations common to large-mammal mark-recapture studies: regular spacing, clustered, and a temporal sequence of different cluster configurations (i.e., trap relocation). We explored trap spacing and number of traps per cluster by varying the number of traps. The clustered arrangement performed well when detection rates were low, and provides for easier field implementation than the sequential trap arrangement. However, performance differences between trap configurations diminished as home range size increased. Our simulations suggest it is important to consider trap spacing relative to home range sizes, with traps ideally spaced no more than twice the spatial scale parameter. While spatial capture-recapture models can accommodate different sampling designs and still estimate parameters with accuracy and precision, our simulations demonstrate that aspects of sampling design, namely trap configuration and spacing, must consider study area size, ranges of individual movement, and home range sizes in the study population.

Evaluating MODIS snow products for modelling snowmelt runoff: Case study of the Rio Grande headwaters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steele, Caitriana; Dialesandro, John; James, Darren; Elias, Emile; Rango, Albert; Bleiweiss, Max

2017-12-01

Snow-covered area (SCA) is a key variable in the Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM) and in other models for simulating discharge from snowmelt. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM), Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM +) or Operational Land Imager (OLI) provide remotely sensed data at an appropriate spatial resolution for mapping SCA in small headwater basins, but the temporal resolution of the data is low and may not always provide sufficient cloud-free dates. The coarser spatial resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) offers better temporal resolution and in cloudy years, MODIS data offer the best alternative for mapping snow cover when finer spatial resolution data are unavailable. However, MODIS' coarse spatial resolution (500 m) can obscure fine spatial patterning in snow cover and some MODIS products are not sensitive to end-of-season snow cover. In this study, we aimed to test MODIS snow products for use in simulating snowmelt runoff from smaller headwater basins by a) comparing maps of TM and MODIS-based SCA and b) determining how SRM streamflow simulations are changed by the different estimates of seasonal snow depletion. We compared gridded MODIS snow products (Collection 5 MOD10A1 fractional and binary SCA; SCA derived from Collection 6 MOD10A1 Normalised Difference Snow Index (NDSI) Snow Cover), and the MODIS Snow Covered-Area and Grain size retrieval (MODSCAG) canopy-corrected fractional SCA (SCAMG), with reference SCA maps (SCAREF) generated from binary classification of TM imagery. SCAMG showed strong agreement with SCAREF; excluding true negatives (where both methods agreed no snow was present) the median percent difference between SCAREF and SCAMG ranged between -2.4% and 4.7%. We simulated runoff for each of the four study years using SRM populated with and calibrated for snow depletion curves derived from SCAREF. We then substituted in each of the MODIS-derived depletion curves. With efficiency coefficients ranging between 0.73 and 0.93, SRM simulation results from the SCAMG runs yielded the best results of all the MODIS products and only slightly underestimated discharge volume (between 7 and 11% of measured annual discharge). SRM simulations that used SCA derived from Collection 6 NDSI Snow Cover also yielded promising results, with efficiency coefficients ranging between 0.73 and 0.91. In conclusion, we recommend that when simulating snowmelt runoff from small basins (<4000 km2) with SRM, we recommend that users select either canopy-corrected MODSCAG or create their own site-specific products from the Collection 6 MOD10A1 NDSI.

Spatial/Temporal Variations of Crime: A Routine Activity Theory Perspective.

PubMed

de Melo, Silas Nogueira; Pereira, Débora V S; Andresen, Martin A; Matias, Lindon Fonseca

2018-05-01

Temporal and spatial patterns of crime in Campinas, Brazil, are analyzed considering the relevance of routine activity theory in a Latin American context. We use geo-referenced criminal event data, 2010-2013, analyzing spatial patterns using census tracts and temporal patterns considering seasons, months, days, and hours. Our analyses include difference in means tests, count-based regression models, and Kulldorff's scan test. We find that crime in Campinas, Brazil, exhibits both temporal and spatial-temporal patterns. However, the presence of these patterns at the different temporal scales varies by crime type. Specifically, not all crime types have statistically significant temporal patterns at all scales of analysis. As such, routine activity theory works well to explain temporal and spatial-temporal patterns of crime in Campinas, Brazil. However, local knowledge of Brazilian culture is necessary for understanding a portion of these crime patterns.

Single-shot pulse duration and intensity diagnostic for 10-ps MeV gamma pulses based on interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Bo-dong; Hei, Dong-wei; Song, Yan; Liu, Jun; Zhao, Jun

2018-04-01

To measure the temporal width and the intensity evolution versus time of a MeV gamma pulse generated by a Compton Scatter Source, a time-space conversion method is proposed. This design is based on the consideration that the temporal length of the MeV pulse is proportional to the spatial length of the pulse in a certain semiconductor. The spatial length and the intensity evolution versus time of the MeV pulse can be obtained by recording the region of the refractive index change that is induced by the MeV pulse. The simulation suggests that the equivalent temporal spread of a mono-energy MeV δ pulse in a bulk semiconductor is on the order of picoseconds and does not vary significantly with photon energy and material type. According to our analysis, the excess carrier generation time, excess carrier diffusion and recombination do not significantly influence the temporal resolution of this method. The temporal response of the refractive index change to a MeV pulse is also fast enough to meet the measurement requirements. The signal generation process for measuring a 10-ps MeV pulse with a 200-fs probe beam is analyzed, revealing that the transverse size of the MeV pulse does not influence the temporal resolution of this method.

A spatio-temporal evaluation of the WRF physical parameterisations for numerical rainfall simulation in semi-humid and semi-arid catchments of Northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Jiyang; Liu, Jia; Wang, Jianhua; Li, Chuanzhe; Yu, Fuliang; Chu, Zhigang

2017-07-01

Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction systems can provide rainfall products at high resolutions in space and time, playing an increasingly more important role in water management and flood forecasting. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is one of the most popular mesoscale systems and has been extensively used in research and practice. However, for hydrologists, an unsolved question must be addressed before each model application in a different target area. That is, how are the most appropriate combinations of physical parameterisations from the vast WRF library selected to provide the best downscaled rainfall? In this study, the WRF model was applied with 12 designed parameterisation schemes with different combinations of physical parameterisations, including microphysics, radiation, planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and cumulus parameterisations. The selected study areas are two semi-humid and semi-arid catchments located in the Daqinghe River basin, Northern China. The performance of WRF with different parameterisation schemes is tested for simulating eight typical 24-h storm events with different evenness in space and time. In addition to the cumulative rainfall amount, the spatial and temporal patterns of the simulated rainfall are evaluated based on a two-dimensional composed verification statistic. Among the 12 parameterisation schemes, Scheme 4 outperforms the other schemes with the best average performance in simulating rainfall totals and temporal patterns; in contrast, Scheme 6 is generally a good choice for simulations of spatial rainfall distributions. Regarding the individual parameterisations, Single-Moment 6 (WSM6), Yonsei University (YSU), Kain-Fritsch (KF) and Grell-Devenyi (GD) are better choices for microphysics, planetary boundary layers (PBL) and cumulus parameterisations, respectively, in the study area. These findings provide helpful information for WRF rainfall downscaling in semi-humid and semi-arid areas. The methodologies to design and test the combination schemes of parameterisations can also be regarded as a reference for generating ensembles in numerical rainfall predictions using the WRF model.

Satellite image simulations for model-supervised, dynamic retrieval of crop type and land use intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bach, H.; Klug, P.; Ruf, T.; Migdall, S.; Schlenz, F.; Hank, T.; Mauser, W.

2015-04-01

To support food security, information products about the actual cropping area per crop type, the current status of agricultural production and estimated yields, as well as the sustainability of the agricultural management are necessary. Based on this information, well-targeted land management decisions can be made. Remote sensing is in a unique position to contribute to this task as it is globally available and provides a plethora of information about current crop status. M4Land is a comprehensive system in which a crop growth model (PROMET) and a reflectance model (SLC) are coupled in order to provide these information products by analyzing multi-temporal satellite images. SLC uses modelled surface state parameters from PROMET, such as leaf area index or phenology of different crops to simulate spatially distributed surface reflectance spectra. This is the basis for generating artificial satellite images considering sensor specific configurations (spectral bands, solar and observation geometries). Ensembles of model runs are used to represent different crop types, fertilization status, soil colour and soil moisture. By multi-temporal comparisons of simulated and real satellite images, the land cover/crop type can be classified in a dynamically, model-supervised way and without in-situ training data. The method is demonstrated in an agricultural test-site in Bavaria. Its transferability is studied by analysing PROMET model results for the rest of Germany. Especially the simulated phenological development can be verified on this scale in order to understand whether PROMET is able to adequately simulate spatial, as well as temporal (intra- and inter-season) crop growth conditions, a prerequisite for the model-supervised approach. This sophisticated new technology allows monitoring of management decisions on the field-level using high resolution optical data (presently RapidEye and Landsat). The M4Land analysis system is designed to integrate multi-mission data and is well suited for the use of Sentinel-2's continuous and manifold data stream.

Probing the Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Temporal Aliasing Errors and their Impact on Satellite Gravity Retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiese, D. N.; McCullough, C. M.

2017-12-01

Studies have shown that both single pair low-low satellite-to-satellite tracking (LL-SST) and dual-pair LL-SST hypothetical future satellite gravimetry missions utilizing improved onboard measurement systems relative to the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) will be limited by temporal aliasing errors; that is, the error introduced through deficiencies in models of high frequency mass variations required for the data processing. Here, we probe the spatio-temporal characteristics of temporal aliasing errors to understand their impact on satellite gravity retrievals using high fidelity numerical simulations. We find that while aliasing errors are dominant at long wavelengths and multi-day timescales, improving knowledge of high frequency mass variations at these resolutions translates into only modest improvements (i.e. spatial resolution/accuracy) in the ability to measure temporal gravity variations at monthly timescales. This result highlights the reliance on accurate models of high frequency mass variations for gravity processing, and the difficult nature of reducing temporal aliasing errors and their impact on satellite gravity retrievals.

The Relative Importance of Spatial Versus Temporal Structure in the Perception of Biological Motion: An Event-Related Potential Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hirai, Masahiro; Hiraki, Kazuo

2006-01-01

We investigated how the spatiotemporal structure of animations of biological motion (BM) affects brain activity. We measured event-related potentials (ERPs) during the perception of BM under four conditions: normal spatial and temporal structure; scrambled spatial and normal temporal structure; normal spatial and scrambled temporal structure; and…

A model relating Eulerian spatial and temporal velocity correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cholemari, Murali R.; Arakeri, Jaywant H.

2006-03-01

In this paper we propose a model to relate Eulerian spatial and temporal velocity autocorrelations in homogeneous, isotropic and stationary turbulence. We model the decorrelation as the eddies of various scales becoming decorrelated. This enables us to connect the spatial and temporal separations required for a certain decorrelation through the ‘eddy scale’. Given either the spatial or the temporal velocity correlation, we obtain the ‘eddy scale’ and the rate at which the decorrelation proceeds. This leads to a spatial separation from the temporal correlation and a temporal separation from the spatial correlation, at any given value of the correlation relating the two correlations. We test the model using experimental data from a stationary axisymmetric turbulent flow with homogeneity along the axis.

How model and input uncertainty impact maize yield simulations in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waha, Katharina; Huth, Neil; Carberry, Peter; Wang, Enli

2015-02-01

Crop models are common tools for simulating crop yields and crop production in studies on food security and global change. Various uncertainties however exist, not only in the model design and model parameters, but also and maybe even more important in soil, climate and management input data. We analyze the performance of the point-scale crop model APSIM and the global scale crop model LPJmL with different climate and soil conditions under different agricultural management in the low-input maize-growing areas of Burkina Faso, West Africa. We test the models’ response to different levels of input information from little to detailed information on soil, climate (1961-2000) and agricultural management and compare the models’ ability to represent the observed spatial (between locations) and temporal variability (between years) in crop yields. We found that the resolution of different soil, climate and management information influences the simulated crop yields in both models. However, the difference between models is larger than between input data and larger between simulations with different climate and management information than between simulations with different soil information. The observed spatial variability can be represented well from both models even with little information on soils and management but APSIM simulates a higher variation between single locations than LPJmL. The agreement of simulated and observed temporal variability is lower due to non-climatic factors e.g. investment in agricultural research and development between 1987 and 1991 in Burkina Faso which resulted in a doubling of maize yields. The findings of our study highlight the importance of scale and model choice and show that the most detailed input data does not necessarily improve model performance.

Spatially Distributed Dendritic Resonance Selectively Filters Synaptic Input

PubMed Central

Segev, Idan; Shamma, Shihab

2014-01-01

An important task performed by a neuron is the selection of relevant inputs from among thousands of synapses impinging on the dendritic tree. Synaptic plasticity enables this by strenghtening a subset of synapses that are, presumably, functionally relevant to the neuron. A different selection mechanism exploits the resonance of the dendritic membranes to preferentially filter synaptic inputs based on their temporal rates. A widely held view is that a neuron has one resonant frequency and thus can pass through one rate. Here we demonstrate through mathematical analyses and numerical simulations that dendritic resonance is inevitably a spatially distributed property; and therefore the resonance frequency varies along the dendrites, and thus endows neurons with a powerful spatiotemporal selection mechanism that is sensitive both to the dendritic location and the temporal structure of the incoming synaptic inputs. PMID:25144440

Pitting temporal against spatial integration in schizophrenic patients.

PubMed

Herzog, Michael H; Brand, Andreas

2009-06-30

Schizophrenic patients show strong impairments in visual backward masking possibly caused by deficits on the early stages of visual processing. The underlying aberrant mechanisms are not clearly understood. Spatial as well as temporal processing deficits have been proposed. Here, by combining a spatial with a temporal integration paradigm, we show further evidence that temporal but not spatial processing is impaired in schizophrenic patients. Eleven schizophrenic patients and ten healthy controls were presented with sequences composed of Vernier stimuli. Patients needed significantly longer presentation times for sequentially presented Vernier stimuli to reach a performance level comparable to that of healthy controls (temporal integration deficit). When we added spatial contextual elements to some of the Vernier stimuli, performance changed in a complex but comparable manner in patients and controls (intact spatial integration). Hence, temporal but not spatial processing seems to be deficient in schizophrenia.

Coupled stochastic spatial and non-spatial simulations of ErbB1 signaling pathways demonstrate the importance of spatial organization in signal transduction.

PubMed

Costa, Michelle N; Radhakrishnan, Krishnan; Wilson, Bridget S; Vlachos, Dionisios G; Edwards, Jeremy S

2009-07-23

The ErbB family of receptors activates intracellular signaling pathways that control cellular proliferation, growth, differentiation and apoptosis. Given these central roles, it is not surprising that overexpression of the ErbB receptors is often associated with carcinogenesis. Therefore, extensive laboratory studies have been devoted to understanding the signaling events associated with ErbB activation. Systems biology has contributed significantly to our current understanding of ErbB signaling networks. However, although computational models have grown in complexity over the years, little work has been done to consider the spatial-temporal dynamics of receptor interactions and to evaluate how spatial organization of membrane receptors influences signaling transduction. Herein, we explore the impact of spatial organization of the epidermal growth factor receptor (ErbB1/EGFR) on the initiation of downstream signaling. We describe the development of an algorithm that couples a spatial stochastic model of membrane receptors with a nonspatial stochastic model of the reactions and interactions in the cytosol. This novel algorithm provides a computationally efficient method to evaluate the effects of spatial heterogeneity on the coupling of receptors to cytosolic signaling partners. Mathematical models of signal transduction rarely consider the contributions of spatial organization due to high computational costs. A hybrid stochastic approach simplifies analyses of the spatio-temporal aspects of cell signaling and, as an example, demonstrates that receptor clustering contributes significantly to the efficiency of signal propagation from ligand-engaged growth factor receptors.

Importance of fish behaviour in modelling conservation problems: food limitation as an example

Treesearch

Steven Railsback; Bret Harvey

2011-01-01

Simulation experiments using the inSTREAM individual-based brown trout Salmo trutta population model explored the role of individual adaptive behaviour in food limitation, as an example of how behaviour can affect managers’ understanding of conservation problems. The model includes many natural complexities in habitat (spatial and temporal variation in characteristics...

Through a glass, darkly—comparing VDDT and FVS

Treesearch

Donald C.E. Robinson; Sarah J. Beukema

2012-01-01

Land managers commonly use FVS and VDDT as planning aids. Although complementary, the models differ in their approach to projection, spatial and temporal resolution, simulation units and required input. When both are used, comparison of the model projections helps to identify differences in the assumptions of the two models and hopefully will result in more consistent...

Mesocell study area snow distributions for the Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX)

Treesearch

Glen E. Liston; Christopher A. Hiemstra; Kelly Elder; Donald W. Cline

2008-01-01

The Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) had a goal of describing snow-related features over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. This required linking disparate snow tools and datasets into one coherent, integrated package. Simulating realistic high-resolution snow distributions and features requires a snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) that can...

A cellular automaton model of wildfire propagation and extinction

Treesearch

Keith C. Clarke; James A. Brass; Phillip J. Riggan

1994-01-01

We propose a new model to predict the spatial and temporal behavior of wildfires. Fire spread and intensity were simulated using a cellular automaton model. Monte Carlo techniques were used to provide fire risk probabilities for areas where fuel loadings and topography are known. The model assumes predetermined or measurable environmental variables such as wind...

Simulating Changes in Tropospheric Aerosol Burden and its Radiative Effects across the Northern Hemisphere: Contrasting Multi-Decadal Trends between Asia and North America

EPA Science Inventory

Though aerosol radiative effects have been recognized as some of the largest sources of uncertainty among the forcers of climate change, the verification of the spatial and temporal variability of the magnitude and directionality of aerosol radiative forcing has remained challeng...

Influence of forest planning alternatives on landscape pattern and ecosystem processes in northern Wisconsin, USA

Treesearch

Patrick A. Zollner; L. Jay Roberts; Eric J. Gustafson; Hong S. He; Volker Radeloff

2008-01-01

Incorporating an ecosystem management perspective into forest planning requires consideration of the impacts of timber management on a suite of landscape characteristics at broad spatial and long temporal scales. We used the LANDIS forest landscape simulation model to predict forest composition and landscape pattern under seven alternative forest management plans...

Mercury and methylmercury stream concentrations in a Coastal Plain watershed: a multi-scale simulation analysis.

PubMed

Knightes, C D; Golden, H E; Journey, C A; Davis, G M; Conrads, P A; Marvin-DiPasquale, M; Brigham, M E; Bradley, P M

2014-04-01

Mercury is a ubiquitous global environmental toxicant responsible for most US fish advisories. Processes governing mercury concentrations in rivers and streams are not well understood, particularly at multiple spatial scales. We investigate how insights gained from reach-scale mercury data and model simulations can be applied at broader watershed scales using a spatially and temporally explicit watershed hydrology and biogeochemical cycling model, VELMA. We simulate fate and transport using reach-scale (0.1 km(2)) study data and evaluate applications to multiple watershed scales. Reach-scale VELMA parameterization was applied to two nested sub-watersheds (28 km(2) and 25 km(2)) and the encompassing watershed (79 km(2)). Results demonstrate that simulated flow and total mercury concentrations compare reasonably to observations at different scales, but simulated methylmercury concentrations are out-of-phase with observations. These findings suggest that intricacies of methylmercury biogeochemical cycling and transport are under-represented in VELMA and underscore the complexity of simulating mercury fate and transport. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

On the persistence of spatiotemporal oscillations generated by invasion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kay, A. L.; Sherratt, J. A.

1999-10-01

Many systems in biology and chemistry are oscillatory, with a stable, spatially homogeneous steady state which consists of periodic temporal oscillations in the interacting species, and such systems have been extensively studied on infinite or semi-infinite spatial domains. We consider the effect of a finite domain, with zero-flux boundary conditions, on the behaviour of solutions to oscillatory reaction-diffusion equations after invasion. We begin by considering numerical simulations of various oscillatory predatory-prey systems. We conclude that when regular spatiotemporal oscillations are left in the wake of invasion, these die out, beginning with a decrease in the spatial frequency of the oscillations at one boundary, which then propagates across the domain. The long-time solution in this case is purely temporal oscillations, corresponding to the limit cycle of the kinetics. Contrastingly, when irregular spatiotemporal oscillations are left in the wake of invasion, they persist, even in very long time simulations. To study this phenomenon in more detail, we consider the {lambda}-{omega} class of reaction-diffusion systems. Numerical simulations show that these systems also exhibit die-out of regular spatiotemporal oscillations and persistence of irregular spatiotemporal oscillations. Exploiting the mathematical simplicity of the {lambda}-{omega} form, we derive analytically an approximation to the transition fronts in r and {theta}x which occur during the die-out of the regular oscillations. We then use this approximation to describe how the die-out occurs, and to derive a measure of its rate, as a function of parameter values. We discuss applications of our results to ecology, calcium signalling and chemistry.

Simulation of net infiltration and potential recharge using a distributed-parameter watershed model of the Death Valley region, Nevada and California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hevesi, Joseph A.; Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.

2003-01-01

This report presents the development and application of the distributed-parameter watershed model, INFILv3, for estimating the temporal and spatial distribution of net infiltration and potential recharge in the Death Valley region, Nevada and California. The estimates of net infiltration quantify the downward drainage of water across the lower boundary of the root zone and are used to indicate potential recharge under variable climate conditions and drainage basin characteristics. Spatial variability in recharge in the Death Valley region likely is high owing to large differences in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, bedrock permeability, soil thickness, vegetation characteristics, and contributions to recharge along active stream channels. The quantity and spatial distribution of recharge representing the effects of variable climatic conditions and drainage basin characteristics on recharge are needed to reduce uncertainty in modeling ground-water flow. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Department of Energy, developed a regional saturated-zone ground-water flow model of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system to help evaluate the current hydrogeologic system and the potential effects of natural or human-induced changes. Although previous estimates of recharge have been made for most areas of the Death Valley region, including the area defined by the boundary of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, the uncertainty of these estimates is high, and the spatial and temporal variability of the recharge in these basins has not been quantified. To estimate the magnitude and distribution of potential recharge in response to variable climate and spatially varying drainage basin characteristics, the INFILv3 model uses a daily water-balance model of the root zone with a primarily deterministic representation of the processes controlling net infiltration and potential recharge. The daily water balance includes precipitation (as either rain or snow), snow accumulation, sublimation, snowmelt, infiltration into the root zone, evapotranspiration, drainage, water content change throughout the root-zone profile (represented as a 6-layered system), runoff (defined as excess rainfall and snowmelt) and surface water run-on (defined as runoff that is routed downstream), and net infiltration (simulated as drainage from the bottom root-zone layer). Potential evapotranspiration is simulated using an hourly solar radiation model to simulate daily net radiation, and daily evapotranspiration is simulated as an empirical function of root zone water content and potential evapotranspiration. The model uses daily climate records of precipitation and air temperature from a regionally distributed network of 132 climate stations and a spatially distributed representation of drainage basin characteristics defined by topography, geology, soils, and vegetation to simulate daily net infiltration at all locations, including stream channels with intermittent streamflow in response to runoff from rain and snowmelt. The temporal distribution of daily, monthly, and annual net infiltration can be used to evaluate the potential effect of future climatic conditions on potential recharge. The INFILv3 model inputs representing drainage basin characteristics were developed using a geographic information system (GIS) to define a set of spatially distributed input parameters uniquely assigned to each grid cell of the INFILv3 model grid. The model grid, which was defined by a digital elevation model (DEM) of the Death Valley region, consists of 1,252,418 model grid cells with a uniform grid cell dimension of 278.5 meters in the north-south and east-west directions. The elevation values from the DEM were used with monthly regression models developed from the daily climate data to estimate the spatial distribution of daily precipitation and air temperature. The elevation values were also used to simulate atmosp

Contrasted hydrothermal activity along the South-East Indian Ridge (130°E-140°E): From crustal to ultramafic circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boulart, Cédric; Briais, Anne; Chavagnac, Valérie; Révillon, Sidonie; Ceuleneer, Georges; Donval, Jean-Pierre; Guyader, Vivien; Barrere, Fabienne; Ferreira, Nicolas; Hanan, Barry; Hémond, Christophe; Macleod, Sarah; Maia, Marcia; Maillard, Agnès.; Merkuryev, Sergey; Park, Sung-Hyun; Ruellan, Etienne; Schohn, Alexandre; Watson, Sally; Yang, Yun-Seok

2017-07-01

Using a combined approach of seafloor mapping, MAPR and CTD survey, we report evidence for active hydrothermal venting along the 130°-140°E section of the poorly-known South-East Indian Ridge (SEIR) from the Australia-Antarctic Discordance (AAD) to the George V Fracture Zone (FZ). Along the latter, we report Eh and CH4 anomalies in the water column above a serpentinite massif, which unambiguously testify for ultramafic-related fluid flow. This is the first time that such circulation is observed on an intermediate-spreading ridge. The ridge axis itself is characterized by numerous off-axis volcanoes, suggesting a high magma supply. The water column survey indicates the presence of at least ten distinct hydrothermal plumes along the axis. The CH4:Mn ratios of the plumes vary from 0.37 to 0.65 denoting different underlying processes, from typical basalt-hosted to ultramafic-hosted high-temperature hydrothermal circulation. Our data suggest that the change of mantle temperature along the SEIR not only regulates the magma supply, but also the hydrothermal activity. The distribution of hydrothermal plumes from a ridge segment to another implies secondary controls such as the presence of fractures and faults along the axis or in the axial discontinuities. We conclude from these results that hydrothermal activity along the SEIR is controlled by magmatic processes at the regional scale and by the tectonics at the segment scale, which influences the type of hydrothermal circulation and leads to various chemical compositions. Such variety may impact global biogeochemical cycles, especially in the Southern Ocean where hydrothermal venting might be the only source of nutrients.

Observations and Modelling of Winds and Waves during the Surface Wave Dynamics Experiment. Report 1. Intensive Observation Period IOP-1, 20-31 October 1990

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-04-01

wave buoy provided by SEATEX, Norway (Figure 3). The modified Mills-cross array was designed to provide spatial estimates of the variation in wave, wind... designed for SWADE to examine the wave physics at different spatial and temporal scales, and the usefulness of a nested system. Each grid is supposed to...field specification. SWADE Model This high-resolution grid was designed to simulate the small scale wave physics and to improve and verify the source

Supercomputing with TOUGH2 family codes for coupled multi-physics simulations of geologic carbon sequestration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, H.; Nakajima, K.; Zhang, K.; Nanai, S.

2015-12-01

Powerful numerical codes that are capable of modeling complex coupled processes of physics and chemistry have been developed for predicting the fate of CO2 in reservoirs as well as its potential impacts on groundwater and subsurface environments. However, they are often computationally demanding for solving highly non-linear models in sufficient spatial and temporal resolutions. Geological heterogeneity and uncertainties further increase the challenges in modeling works. Two-phase flow simulations in heterogeneous media usually require much longer computational time than that in homogeneous media. Uncertainties in reservoir properties may necessitate stochastic simulations with multiple realizations. Recently, massively parallel supercomputers with more than thousands of processors become available in scientific and engineering communities. Such supercomputers may attract attentions from geoscientist and reservoir engineers for solving the large and non-linear models in higher resolutions within a reasonable time. However, for making it a useful tool, it is essential to tackle several practical obstacles to utilize large number of processors effectively for general-purpose reservoir simulators. We have implemented massively-parallel versions of two TOUGH2 family codes (a multi-phase flow simulator TOUGH2 and a chemically reactive transport simulator TOUGHREACT) on two different types (vector- and scalar-type) of supercomputers with a thousand to tens of thousands of processors. After completing implementation and extensive tune-up on the supercomputers, the computational performance was measured for three simulations with multi-million grid models, including a simulation of the dissolution-diffusion-convection process that requires high spatial and temporal resolutions to simulate the growth of small convective fingers of CO2-dissolved water to larger ones in a reservoir scale. The performance measurement confirmed that the both simulators exhibit excellent scalabilities showing almost linear speedup against number of processors up to over ten thousand cores. Generally this allows us to perform coupled multi-physics (THC) simulations on high resolution geologic models with multi-million grid in a practical time (e.g., less than a second per time step).

Spatial and temporal drivers of wildfire occurrence in the context of rural development in northern Wisconsin, USA

Treesearch

Brian R Miranda; Brian R Sturtevant; Susan I Stewart; Roger B. Hammer

2012-01-01

Most drivers underlying wildfire are dynamic, but at different spatial and temporal scales. We quantified temporal and spatial trends in wildfire patterns over two spatial extents in northern Wisconsin to identify drivers and their change through time. We used spatial point pattern analysis to quantify the spatial pattern of wildfire occurrences, and linear regression...

Modelling spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic impacts under climate changes over the Nenjiang River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hao; Zhang, Wanchang

2017-10-01

The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model was adopted for investigating spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic impacts of climate change over the Nenjiang River Basin (NRB) based on a set of gridded forcing dataset at 1/12th degree resolution from 1970 to 2013. Basin-scale changes in the input forcing data and the simulated hydrological variables of the NRB, as well as station-scale changes in discharges for three major hydrometric stations were examined, which suggested that the model was performed fairly satisfactory in reproducing the observed discharges, meanwhile, the snow cover and evapotranspiration in temporal and spatial patterns were simulated reasonably corresponded to the remotely sensed ones. Wetland maps produced by multi-sources satellite images covering the entire basin between 1978 and 2008 were also utilized for investigating the responses and feedbacks of hydrological regimes on wetland dynamics. Results revealed that significant decreasing trends appeared in annual, spring and autumn streamflow demonstrated strong affection of precipitation and temperature changes over the study watershed, and the effects of climate change on the runoff reduction varied in the sub-basin area over different time scales. The proportion of evapotranspiration to precipitation characterized several severe fluctuations in droughts and floods took place in the region, which implied the enhanced sensitiveness and vulnerability of hydrologic regimes to changing environment of the region. Furthermore, it was found that the different types of wetlands undergone quite unique variation features with the varied hydro-meteorological conditions over the region, such as precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. This study provided effective scientific basis for water resource managers to develop effective eco-environment management plans and strategies that address the consequences of climate changes.

Adjustment of spatio-temporal precipitation patterns in a high Alpine environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrnegger, Mathew; Senoner, Tobias; Nachtnebel, Hans-Peter

2018-01-01

This contribution presents a method for correcting the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation fields in a mountainous environment. The approach is applied within a flood forecasting model in the Upper Enns catchment in the Central Austrian Alps. Precipitation exhibits a large spatio-temporal variability in Alpine areas. Additionally the density of the monitoring network is low and measurements are subjected to major errors. This can lead to significant deficits in water balance estimation and stream flow simulations, e.g. for flood forecasting models. Therefore precipitation correction factors are frequently applied. For the presented study a multiplicative, stepwise linear correction model is implemented in the rainfall-runoff model COSERO to adjust the precipitation pattern as a function of elevation. To account for the local meteorological conditions, the correction model is derived for two elevation zones: (1) Valley floors to 2000 m a.s.l. and (2) above 2000 m a.s.l. to mountain peaks. Measurement errors also depend on the precipitation type, with higher magnitudes in winter months during snow fall. Therefore, additionally, separate correction factors for winter and summer months are estimated. Significant improvements in the runoff simulations could be achieved, not only in the long-term water balance simulation and the overall model performance, but also in the simulation of flood peaks.

Spatio-temporal Analysis for New York State SPARCS Data

PubMed Central

Chen, Xin; Wang, Yu; Schoenfeld, Elinor; Saltz, Mary; Saltz, Joel; Wang, Fusheng

2017-01-01

Increased accessibility of health data provides unique opportunities to discover spatio-temporal patterns of diseases. For example, New York State SPARCS (Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System) data collects patient level detail on patient demographics, diagnoses, services, and charges for each hospital inpatient stay and outpatient visit. Such data also provides home addresses for each patient. This paper presents our preliminary work on spatial, temporal, and spatial-temporal analysis of disease patterns for New York State using SPARCS data. We analyzed spatial distribution patterns of typical diseases at ZIP code level. We performed temporal analysis of common diseases based on 12 years’ historical data. We then compared the spatial variations for diseases with different levels of clustering tendency, and studied the evolution history of such spatial patterns. Case studies based on asthma demonstrated that the discovered spatial clusters are consistent with prior studies. We visualized our spatial-temporal patterns as animations through videos. PMID:28815148

Long-term monitoring on environmental disasters using multi-source remote sensing technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Y. C.; Chen, C. F.

2017-12-01

Environmental disasters are extreme events within the earth's system that cause deaths and injuries to humans, as well as causing damages and losses of valuable assets, such as buildings, communication systems, farmlands, forest and etc. In disaster management, a large amount of multi-temporal spatial data is required. Multi-source remote sensing data with different spatial, spectral and temporal resolutions is widely applied on environmental disaster monitoring. With multi-source and multi-temporal high resolution images, we conduct rapid, systematic and seriate observations regarding to economic damages and environmental disasters on earth. It is based on three monitoring platforms: remote sensing, UAS (Unmanned Aircraft Systems) and ground investigation. The advantages of using UAS technology include great mobility and availability in real-time rapid and more flexible weather conditions. The system can produce long-term spatial distribution information from environmental disasters, obtaining high-resolution remote sensing data and field verification data in key monitoring areas. It also supports the prevention and control on ocean pollutions, illegally disposed wastes and pine pests in different scales. Meanwhile, digital photogrammetry can be applied on the camera inside and outside the position parameters to produce Digital Surface Model (DSM) data. The latest terrain environment information is simulated by using DSM data, and can be used as references in disaster recovery in the future.

NewsWire, 2000-2001.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richey, Nancy, Ed.; Byrom, Elizabeth, Ed.; Bingham, Margaret, Ed.; Guerrero, Jeanne, Ed.; Thrift, Beth, Ed.; Holton, Brook, Ed.

2001-01-01

This document contains five issues of "NewsWire," a newsletter created for the SouthEast and Islands Regional Technology in Education Consortium (SEIR-TEC). Topics addressed in these issues include: leadership and educational technology; technology program development; resources for teaching and learning with technology; U.S. Department of…

The Buildup of a Scale-free Photospheric Magnetic Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibault, K.; Charbonneau, P.; Crouch, A. D.

2012-10-01

We use a global Monte Carlo simulation of the formation of the solar photospheric magnetic network to investigate the origin of the scale invariance characterizing magnetic flux concentrations visible on high-resolution magnetograms. The simulations include spatially and temporally homogeneous injection of small-scale magnetic elements over the whole photosphere, as well as localized episodic injection associated with the emergence and decay of active regions. Network elements form in response to cumulative pairwise aggregation or cancellation of magnetic elements, undergoing a random walk on the sphere and advected on large spatial scales by differential rotation and a poleward meridional flow. The resulting size distribution of simulated network elements is in very good agreement with observational inferences. We find that the fractal index and size distribution of network elements are determined primarily by these post-emergence surface mechanisms, and carry little or no memory of the scales at which magnetic flux is injected in the simulation. Implications for models of dynamo action in the Sun are briefly discussed.

Virtual mission stage I: Implications of a spaceborne surface water mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, E. A.; Alsdorf, D. E.; Bates, P.; Wilson, M. D.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2004-12-01

The interannual and interseasonal variability of the land surface water cycle depend on the distribution of surface water in lakes, wetlands, reservoirs, and river systems; however, measurements of hydrologic variables are sparsely distributed, even in industrialized nations. Moreover, the spatial extent and storage variations of lakes, reservoirs, and wetlands are poorly known. We are developing a virtual mission to demonstrate the feasibility of observing surface water extent and variations from a spaceborne platform. In the first stage of the virtual mission, on which we report here, surface water area and fluxes are emulated using simulation modeling over three continental scale river basins, including the Ohio River, the Amazon River and an Arctic river. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model is used to simulate evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snow accumulation and ablation, and runoff and streamflow over each basin at one-eighth degree resolution. The runoff from this model is routed using a linear transfer model to provide input to a much more detailed flow hydraulics model. The flow hydraulics model then routes runoff through various channel and floodplain morphologies at a 250 m spatial and 20 second temporal resolution over a 100 km by 500 km domain. This information is used to evaluate trade-offs between spatial and temporal resolutions of a hypothetical high resolution spaceborne altimeter by synthetically sampling the resultant model-predicted water surface elevations.

The Feasibility of Conformal Thermal Therapy with Transurethral Ultrasound Heating Applicators and MR Temperature Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choy, Vanessa; Tang, Kee; Wachsmuth, Jeff; Chopra, Rajiv; Bronskill, Michael

2006-05-01

Transurethral thermal therapy offers a minimally invasive alternative for the treatment of prostate diseases including benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH) and prostate cancer. Accurate heating of a targeted region of the gland can be achieved through the use of a rotating directional heating source incorporating planar ultrasound transducers, and the implementation of active temperature feedback along the beam direction during heating provided by magnetic resonance (MR) thermometry. The performance of this control method with practical spatial, temporal, and temperature resolution (such as angular alignment, spatial resolution, update rate for temperature feedback (imaging time), and the presence of noise) for thermal feedback using a clinical 1.5 T MR scanner was investigated in simulations. As expected, the control algorithm was most sensitive to the presence of noise, with noticeable degradation in its performance above ±2°C of temperature uncertainty. With respect to temporal resolution, acceptable performance was achieved at update rates of 5s or faster. The control algorithm was relatively insensitive to reduced spatial resolution due to the broad nature of the heating pattern produced by the heating applicator, this provides an opportunity to improve signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The overall simulation results confirm that existing clinical 1.5T MR imagers are capable of providing adequate temperature feedback for transurethral thermal therapy without special pulse sequences or enhanced imaging hardware.

Biphoton Generation Driven by Spatial Light Modulation: Parallel-to-Series Conversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Luwei; Guo, Xianxin; Sun, Yuan; Su, Yumian; Loy, M. M. T.; Du, Shengwang

2016-05-01

We demonstrate the generation of narrowband biphotons with controllable temporal waveform by spontaneous four-wave mixing in cold atoms. In the group-delay regime, we study the dependence of the biphoton temporal waveform on the spatial profile of the pump laser beam. By using a spatial light modulator, we manipulate the spatial profile of the pump laser and map it onto the two-photon entangled temporal wave function. This parallel-to-series conversion (or spatial-to-temporal mapping) enables coding the parallel classical information of the pump spatial profile to the sequential temporal waveform of the biphoton quantum state. The work was supported by the Hong Kong RGC (Project No. 601113).

Collaborative Research with Chinese, Indian, Filipino and North European Research Organizations on Infectious Disease Epidemics.

PubMed

Sumi, Ayako; Kobayashi, Nobumichi

2017-01-01

In this report, we present a short review of applications of time series analysis, which consists of spectral analysis based on the maximum entropy method in the frequency domain and the least squares method in the time domain, to the incidence data of infectious diseases. This report consists of three parts. First, we present our results obtained by collaborative research on infectious disease epidemics with Chinese, Indian, Filipino and North European research organizations. Second, we present the results obtained with the Japanese infectious disease surveillance data and the time series numerically generated from a mathematical model, called the susceptible/exposed/infectious/recovered (SEIR) model. Third, we present an application of the time series analysis to pathologic tissues to examine the usefulness of time series analysis for investigating the spatial pattern of pathologic tissue. It is anticipated that time series analysis will become a useful tool for investigating not only infectious disease surveillance data but also immunological and genetic tests.

High resolution tempo-spatial ozone prediction with SVM and LSTM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, D.; Zhang, Y.; Qu, Z.; Sadighi, K.; Coffey, E.; LIU, Q.; Hannigan, M.; Henze, D. K.; Dick, R.; Shang, L.; Lv, Q.

2017-12-01

To investigate and predict the exposure of ozone and other pollutants in urban areas, we utilize data from various infrastructures including EPA, NOAA and RIITS from government of Los Angeles and construct statistical models to conduct ozone concentration prediction in Los Angeles areas at finer spatial and temporal granularity. Our work involves cyber data such as traffic, roads and population data as features for prediction. Two statistical models, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Long Short-term Memory (LSTM, deep learning method) are used for prediction. . Our experiments show that kernelized SVM gains better prediction performance when taking traffic counts, road density and population density as features, with a prediction RMSE of 7.99 ppb for all-time ozone and 6.92 ppb for peak-value ozone. With simulated NOx from Chemical Transport Model(CTM) as features, SVM generates even better prediction performance, with a prediction RMSE of 6.69ppb. We also build LSTM, which has shown great advantages at dealing with temporal sequences, to predict ozone concentration by treating ozone concentration as spatial-temporal sequences. Trained by ozone concentration measurements from the 13 EPA stations in LA area, the model achieves 4.45 ppb RMSE. Besides, we build a variant of this model which adds spatial dynamics into the model in the form of transition matrix that reveals new knowledge on pollutant transition. The forgetting gate of the trained LSTM is consistent with the delay effect of ozone concentration and the trained transition matrix shows spatial consistency with the common direction of winds in LA area.

Spatial and temporal variations of aerosols around Beijing in summer 2006: Model evaluation and source apportionment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsui, H.; Koike, M.; Kondo, Y.; Takegawa, N.; Kita, K.; Miyazaki, Y.; Hu, M.; Chang, S.; Blake, D. R.; Fast, J. D.; Zaveri, R. A.; Streets, D. G.; Zhang, Q.; Zhu, T.

2009-12-01

Regional aerosol model calculations were made using the WRF-CMAQ and WRF-chem models to study spatial and temporal variations of aerosols around Beijing, China, in the summer of 2006, when the CAREBEIJING-2006 intensive campaign was conducted. Model calculations captured temporal variations of primary (such as elemental carbon, EC) and secondary (such as sulfate) aerosols observed in and around Beijing. The spatial distributions of aerosol optical depth observed by the MODIS satellite sensors were also reproduced over northeast China. Model calculations showed distinct differences in spatial distributions between primary and secondary aerosols in association with synoptic-scale meteorology. Secondary aerosols increased in air around Beijing on a scale of about 1000 x 1000 km2 under an anticyclonic pressure system. This airmass was transported northward from the high anthropogenic emission area extending south of Beijing with continuous photochemical production. Subsequent cold front passage brought clean air from the north, and polluted air around Beijing was swept to the south of Beijing. This cycle was repeated about once a week and was found to be responsible for observed enhancements/reductions of aerosols at the intensive measurement sites. In contrast to secondary aerosols, the spatial distributions of primary aerosols (EC) reflected those of emissions, resulting in only slight variability despite the changes in synoptic-scale meteorology. In accordance with these results, source apportionment simulations revealed that primary aerosols around Beijing were controlled by emissions within 100 km around Beijing within the preceding 24 hours, while emissions as far as 500 km and within the preceding 3 days were found to affect secondary aerosols.

WATSFAR: numerical simulation of soil WATer and Solute fluxes using a FAst and Robust method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crevoisier, David; Voltz, Marc

2013-04-01

To simulate the evolution of hydro- and agro-systems, numerous spatialised models are based on a multi-local approach and improvement of simulation accuracy by data-assimilation techniques are now used in many application field. The latest acquisition techniques provide a large amount of experimental data, which increase the efficiency of parameters estimation and inverse modelling approaches. In turn simulations are often run on large temporal and spatial domains which requires a large number of model runs. Eventually, despite the regular increase in computing capacities, the development of fast and robust methods describing the evolution of saturated-unsaturated soil water and solute fluxes is still a challenge. Ross (2003, Agron J; 95:1352-1361) proposed a method, solving 1D Richards' and convection-diffusion equation, that fulfil these characteristics. The method is based on a non iterative approach which reduces the numerical divergence risks and allows the use of coarser spatial and temporal discretisations, while assuring a satisfying accuracy of the results. Crevoisier et al. (2009, Adv Wat Res; 32:936-947) proposed some technical improvements and validated this method on a wider range of agro- pedo- climatic situations. In this poster, we present the simulation code WATSFAR which generalises the Ross method to other mathematical representations of soil water retention curve (i.e. standard and modified van Genuchten model) and includes a dual permeability context (preferential fluxes) for both water and solute transfers. The situations tested are those known to be the less favourable when using standard numerical methods: fine textured and extremely dry soils, intense rainfall and solute fluxes, soils near saturation, ... The results of WATSFAR have been compared with the standard finite element model Hydrus. The analysis of these comparisons highlights two main advantages for WATSFAR, i) robustness: even on fine textured soil or high water and solute fluxes - where Hydrus simulations may fail to converge - no numerical problem appears, and ii) accuracy of simulations even for loose spatial domain discretisations, which can only be obtained by Hydrus with fine discretisations.

Understanding spatial and temporal behavior of sea spray droplets in the marine atmospheric boundary layer using an Eulerian-Lagrangian model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissanka, I. D.; Richter, D. H.

2017-12-01

Previous studies have shown that sea spray droplets can play a significant role in air-sea heat and moisture exchange. The larger spray droplets have potential to transfer considerable amount of mass, momentum and heat, however they remain closer to surface and their residence times are shorter due to the faster settling. On the other hand, smaller droplets have high vertical mobility which allows sufficient time for droplets to adjust to ambient conditions. Hence, to study the heat and moisture characteristics of sea spray droplets it is important to understand how different droplet sizes behave in the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL), especially their temporal evolutions. In this study sea spray droplet transport in the MABL is simulated using Large Eddy Simulation combined with a Lagrangian Particle model which represents spray droplets of varying size. The individual droplets are tracked while their radius and temperature evolve based on local ambient conditions. The particles are advected based on the local resolved velocities and the particle dispersion due to sub-filtered scale motions are modeled using a Lagrangian stochastic model. In this study a series of simulations are conducted with the focus of understanding fundamental droplet microphysics, which will help characterize and quantify the lifetime and airborne concentrations of spray droplets in the MABL, thus elucidating ongoing knowledge gaps which are impossible to fill using observations alone. We measure the size resolved spray droplet vertical concentrations, particle residence times, and temporal evolution of droplet radius and temperature to explain the behavior of sea spry droplets in MABL. The PDF of residence time of different initial droplet sizes and joint PDFs of droplet life time and radius and temperature for different droplet sizes are calculated to further quantify the temporal and spatial behavior of sea spray droplets in the MABL, which can be used as inputs into bulk models of air-sea transfer.

Simulation of Malaria Transmission among Households in a Thai Village using Remotely Sensed Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, Richard K.; Adimi, Farida; Zollner, Gabriela E.; Coleman, Russell E.

2007-01-01

We have used discrete-event simulation to model the malaria transmission in a Thailand village with approximately 700 residents. Specifically, we model the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. Some of the meteorological and environmental parameters used in the simulation are derived from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and the Ikonos satellite data. Parameters used in the simulations reflect the realistic condition of the village, including the locations and sizes of the households, ages and estimated immunity of the residents, presence of farm animals, and locations of larval habitats. Larval habitats include the actual locations where larvae were collected and the probable locations based on satellite data. The output of the simulation includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Simulated transmission under homogeneous environmental condition was compared with that predicted by a SEIR model. Sensitivity of the output with respect to some extrinsic and intrinsic factors was investigated. Results were compared with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired over 4.5 years (June 1999 - January 2004) in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in Kanchanaburi Province, western Thailand. The simulation method is useful for testing transmission hypotheses, estimating the efficacy of insecticide applications, assessing the impacts of nonimmune immigrants, and predicting the effects of socioeconomic, environmental and climatic changes.

Sampling scales define occupancy and underlying occupancy-abundance relationships in animals.

PubMed

Steenweg, Robin; Hebblewhite, Mark; Whittington, Jesse; Lukacs, Paul; McKelvey, Kevin

2018-01-01

Occupancy-abundance (OA) relationships are a foundational ecological phenomenon and field of study, and occupancy models are increasingly used to track population trends and understand ecological interactions. However, these two fields of ecological inquiry remain largely isolated, despite growing appreciation of the importance of integration. For example, using occupancy models to infer trends in abundance is predicated on positive OA relationships. Many occupancy studies collect data that violate geographical closure assumptions due to the choice of sampling scales and application to mobile organisms, which may change how occupancy and abundance are related. Little research, however, has explored how different occupancy sampling designs affect OA relationships. We develop a conceptual framework for understanding how sampling scales affect the definition of occupancy for mobile organisms, which drives OA relationships. We explore how spatial and temporal sampling scales, and the choice of sampling unit (areal vs. point sampling), affect OA relationships. We develop predictions using simulations, and test them using empirical occupancy data from remote cameras on 11 medium-large mammals. Surprisingly, our simulations demonstrate that when using point sampling, OA relationships are unaffected by spatial sampling grain (i.e., cell size). In contrast, when using areal sampling (e.g., species atlas data), OA relationships are affected by spatial grain. Furthermore, OA relationships are also affected by temporal sampling scales, where the curvature of the OA relationship increases with temporal sampling duration. Our empirical results support these predictions, showing that at any given abundance, the spatial grain of point sampling does not affect occupancy estimates, but longer surveys do increase occupancy estimates. For rare species (low occupancy), estimates of occupancy will quickly increase with longer surveys, even while abundance remains constant. Our results also clearly demonstrate that occupancy for mobile species without geographical closure is not true occupancy. The independence of occupancy estimates from spatial sampling grain depends on the sampling unit. Point-sampling surveys can, however, provide unbiased estimates of occupancy for multiple species simultaneously, irrespective of home-range size. The use of occupancy for trend monitoring needs to explicitly articulate how the chosen sampling scales define occupancy and affect the occupancy-abundance relationship. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Spatiotemporal Monte Carlo transport methods in x-ray semiconductor detectors: application to pulse-height spectroscopy in a-Se.

PubMed

Fang, Yuan; Badal, Andreu; Allec, Nicholas; Karim, Karim S; Badano, Aldo

2012-01-01

The authors describe a detailed Monte Carlo (MC) method for the coupled transport of ionizing particles and charge carriers in amorphous selenium (a-Se) semiconductor x-ray detectors, and model the effect of statistical variations on the detected signal. A detailed transport code was developed for modeling the signal formation process in semiconductor x-ray detectors. The charge transport routines include three-dimensional spatial and temporal models of electron-hole pair transport taking into account recombination and trapping. Many electron-hole pairs are created simultaneously in bursts from energy deposition events. Carrier transport processes include drift due to external field and Coulombic interactions, and diffusion due to Brownian motion. Pulse-height spectra (PHS) have been simulated with different transport conditions for a range of monoenergetic incident x-ray energies and mammography radiation beam qualities. Two methods for calculating Swank factors from simulated PHS are shown, one using the entire PHS distribution, and the other using the photopeak. The latter ignores contributions from Compton scattering and K-fluorescence. Comparisons differ by approximately 2% between experimental measurements and simulations. The a-Se x-ray detector PHS responses simulated in this work include three-dimensional spatial and temporal transport of electron-hole pairs. These PHS were used to calculate the Swank factor and compare it with experimental measurements. The Swank factor was shown to be a function of x-ray energy and applied electric field. Trapping and recombination models are all shown to affect the Swank factor.

Navigational strategies underlying phototaxis in larval zebrafish

PubMed Central

Chen, Xiuye; Engert, Florian

2014-01-01

Understanding how the brain transforms sensory input into complex behavior is a fundamental question in systems neuroscience. Using larval zebrafish, we study the temporal component of phototaxis, which is defined as orientation decisions based on comparisons of light intensity at successive moments in time. We developed a novel “Virtual Circle” assay where whole-field illumination is abruptly turned off when the fish swims out of a virtually defined circular border, and turned on again when it returns into the circle. The animal receives no direct spatial cues and experiences only whole-field temporal light changes. Remarkably, the fish spends most of its time within the invisible virtual border. Behavioral analyses of swim bouts in relation to light transitions were used to develop four discrete temporal algorithms that transform the binary visual input (uniform light/uniform darkness) into the observed spatial behavior. In these algorithms, the turning angle is dependent on the behavioral history immediately preceding individual turning events. Computer simulations show that the algorithms recapture most of the swim statistics of real fish. We discovered that turning properties in larval zebrafish are distinctly modulated by temporal step functions in light intensity in combination with the specific motor history preceding these turns. Several aspects of the behavior suggest memory usage of up to 10 swim bouts (~10 sec). Thus, we show that a complex behavior like spatial navigation can emerge from a small number of relatively simple behavioral algorithms. PMID:24723859

1D-Var multilayer assimilation of X-band SAR data into a detailed snowpack model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phan, X. V.; Ferro-Famil, L.; Gay, M.; Durand, Y.; Dumont, M.; Morin, S.; Allain, S.; D'Urso, G.; Girard, A.

2014-10-01

The structure and physical properties of a snowpack and their temporal evolution may be simulated using meteorological data and a snow metamorphism model. Such an approach may meet limitations related to potential divergences and accumulated errors, to a limited spatial resolution, to wind or topography-induced local modulations of the physical properties of a snow cover, etc. Exogenous data are then required in order to constrain the simulator and improve its performance over time. Synthetic-aperture radars (SARs) and, in particular, recent sensors provide reflectivity maps of snow-covered environments with high temporal and spatial resolutions. The radiometric properties of a snowpack measured at sufficiently high carrier frequencies are known to be tightly related to some of its main physical parameters, like its depth, snow grain size and density. SAR acquisitions may then be used, together with an electromagnetic backscattering model (EBM) able to simulate the reflectivity of a snowpack from a set of physical descriptors, in order to constrain a physical snowpack model. In this study, we introduce a variational data assimilation scheme coupling TerraSAR-X radiometric data into the snowpack evolution model Crocus. The physical properties of a snowpack, such as snow density and optical diameter of each layer, are simulated by Crocus, fed by the local reanalysis of meteorological data (SAFRAN) at a French Alpine location. These snowpack properties are used as inputs of an EBM based on dense media radiative transfer (DMRT) theory, which simulates the total backscattering coefficient of a dry snow medium at X and higher frequency bands. After evaluating the sensitivity of the EBM to snowpack parameters, a 1D-Var data assimilation scheme is implemented in order to minimize the discrepancies between EBM simulations and observations obtained from TerraSAR-X acquisitions by modifying the physical parameters of the Crocus-simulated snowpack. The algorithm then re-initializes Crocus with the modified snowpack physical parameters, allowing it to continue the simulation of snowpack evolution, with adjustments based on remote sensing information. This method is evaluated using multi-temporal TerraSAR-X images acquired over the specific site of the Argentière glacier (Mont-Blanc massif, French Alps) to constrain the evolution of Crocus. Results indicate that X-band SAR data can be taken into account to modify the evolution of snowpack simulated by Crocus.

Temporal characterization of the wave-breaking flash in a laser plasma accelerator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Bo; Feder, Linus; Goers, Andrew; Hine, George; Salehi, Fatholah; Wahlstrand, Jared; Woodbury, Daniel; Milchberg, Howard

2017-10-01

Wave-breaking injection of electrons into a relativistic plasma wake generated in near-critical density plasma by sub-terawatt laser pulses generates an intense ( 1 μJ) and ultra-broadband (Δλ 300 nm) radiation flash. In this work we demonstrate the spectral coherence of this radiation and measure its temporal width using single-shot supercontinuum spectral interferometry (SSSI). The measured temporal width is limited by measurement resolution to 50 fs. Spectral coherence is corroborated by PIC simulations which show that the spatial extent of the acceleration trajectory at the trapping region is small compared to the radiation center wavelength. To our knowledge, this is the first temporal and coherence characterization of wave-breaking radiation. This work is supported by the US Department of Energy, the National Science Foundation, and the Air Force Office of Scientific Research.

Uncertainty estimates of altimetric Global Mean Sea Level timeseries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharffenberg, Martin; Hemming, Michael; Stammer, Detlef

2016-04-01

An attempt is being presented concerned with providing uncertainty measures for global mean sea level time series. For this purpose sea surface height (SSH) fields, simulated by the high resolution STORM/NCEP model for the period 1993 - 2010, were subsampled along altimeter tracks and processed similar to techniques used by five working groups to estimate GMSL. Results suggest that the spatial and temporal resolution have a substantial impact on GMSL estimates. Major impacts can especially result from the interpolation technique or the treatment of SSH outliers and easily lead to artificial temporal variability in the resulting time series.

Spatio-temporal Bayesian model selection for disease mapping

PubMed Central

Carroll, R; Lawson, AB; Faes, C; Kirby, RS; Aregay, M; Watjou, K

2016-01-01

Spatio-temporal analysis of small area health data often involves choosing a fixed set of predictors prior to the final model fit. In this paper, we propose a spatio-temporal approach of Bayesian model selection to implement model selection for certain areas of the study region as well as certain years in the study time line. Here, we examine the usefulness of this approach by way of a large-scale simulation study accompanied by a case study. Our results suggest that a special case of the model selection methods, a mixture model allowing a weight parameter to indicate if the appropriate linear predictor is spatial, spatio-temporal, or a mixture of the two, offers the best option to fitting these spatio-temporal models. In addition, the case study illustrates the effectiveness of this mixture model within the model selection setting by easily accommodating lifestyle, socio-economic, and physical environmental variables to select a predominantly spatio-temporal linear predictor. PMID:28070156

Deblurring for spatial and temporal varying motion with optical computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Xiao; Xue, Dongfeng; Hui, Zhao

2016-05-01

A way to estimate and remove spatially and temporally varying motion blur is proposed, which is based on an optical computing system. The translation and rotation motion can be independently estimated from the joint transform correlator (JTC) system without iterative optimization. The inspiration comes from the fact that the JTC system is immune to rotation motion in a Cartesian coordinate system. The work scheme of the JTC system is designed to keep switching between the Cartesian coordinate system and polar coordinate system in different time intervals with the ping-pang handover. In the ping interval, the JTC system works in the Cartesian coordinate system to obtain a translation motion vector with optical computing speed. In the pang interval, the JTC system works in the polar coordinate system. The rotation motion is transformed to the translation motion through coordinate transformation. Then the rotation motion vector can also be obtained from JTC instantaneously. To deal with continuous spatially variant motion blur, submotion vectors based on the projective motion path blur model are proposed. The submotion vectors model is more effective and accurate at modeling spatially variant motion blur than conventional methods. The simulation and real experiment results demonstrate its overall effectiveness.

Dynamical downscaling of regional climate over eastern China using RSM with multiple physics scheme ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peishu, Zong; Jianping, Tang; Shuyu, Wang; Lingyun, Xie; Jianwei, Yu; Yunqian, Zhu; Xiaorui, Niu; Chao, Li

2017-08-01

The parameterization of physical processes is one of the critical elements to properly simulate the regional climate over eastern China. It is essential to conduct detailed analyses on the effect of physical parameterization schemes on regional climate simulation, to provide more reliable regional climate change information. In this paper, we evaluate the 25-year (1983-2007) summer monsoon climate characteristics of precipitation and surface air temperature by using the regional spectral model (RSM) with different physical schemes. The ensemble results using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method are also assessed. The result shows that the RSM model has the capacity to reproduce the spatial patterns, the variations, and the temporal tendency of surface air temperature and precipitation over eastern China. And it tends to predict better climatology characteristics over the Yangtze River basin and the South China. The impact of different physical schemes on RSM simulations is also investigated. Generally, the CLD3 cloud water prediction scheme tends to produce larger precipitation because of its overestimation of the low-level moisture. The systematic biases derived from the KF2 cumulus scheme are larger than those from the RAS scheme. The scale-selective bias correction (SSBC) method improves the simulation of the temporal and spatial characteristics of surface air temperature and precipitation and advances the circulation simulation capacity. The REA ensemble results show significant improvement in simulating temperature and precipitation distribution, which have much higher correlation coefficient and lower root mean square error. The REA result of selected experiments is better than that of nonselected experiments, indicating the necessity of choosing better ensemble samples for ensemble.

Lateral eddy diffusivity estimates from simulated and observed drifter trajectories: a case study for the Agulhas Current system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rühs, Siren; Zhurbas, Victor; Durgadoo, Jonathan V.; Biastoch, Arne

2017-04-01

The Lagrangian description of fluid motion by sets of individual particle trajectories is extensively used to characterize connectivity between distinct oceanic locations. One important factor influencing the connectivity is the average rate of particle dispersal, generally quantified as Lagrangian diffusivity. In addition to Lagrangian observing programs, Lagrangian analyses are performed by advecting particles with the simulated flow field of ocean general circulation models (OGCMs). However, depending on the spatio-temporal model resolution, not all scale-dependent processes are explicitly resolved in the simulated velocity fields. Consequently, the dispersal of advective Lagrangian trajectories has been assumed not to be sufficiently diffusive compared to observed particle spreading. In this study we present a detailed analysis of the spatially variable lateral eddy diffusivity characteristics of advective drifter trajectories simulated with realistically forced OGCMs and compare them with estimates based on observed drifter trajectories. The extended Agulhas Current system around South Africa, known for its intricate mesoscale dynamics, serves as a test case. We show that a state-of-the-art eddy-resolving OGCM indeed features theoretically derived dispersion characteristics for diffusive regimes and realistically represents Lagrangian eddy diffusivity characteristics obtained from observed surface drifter trajectories. The estimates for the maximum and asymptotic lateral single-particle eddy diffusivities obtained from the observed and simulated drifter trajectories show a good agreement in their spatial pattern and magnitude. We further assess the sensitivity of the simulated lateral eddy diffusivity estimates to the temporal and lateral OGCM output resolution and examine the impact of the different eddy diffusivity characteristics on the Lagrangian connectivity between the Indian Ocean and the South Atlantic.

Figure/ground segregation from temporal delay is best at high spatial frequencies.

PubMed

Kojima, H

1998-12-01

Two experiments investigated the role of spatial frequency in performance of a figure/ground segregation task based on temporal cues. Figure orientation was much easier to judge when figure and ground portions of the target were defined exclusively by random texture composed entirely of high spatial frequencies. When target components were defined by low spatial frequencies only, the task was nearly impossible except with long temporal delay between figure and ground. These results are inconsistent with the hypothesis that M-cell activity is primarily responsible for figure/ground segregation from temporal delay. Instead, these results point to a distinction between temporal integration and temporal differentiation. Additionally, the present results can be related to recent work on the binding of spatial features over time.

Spatial and temporal episodic memory retrieval recruit dissociable functional networks in the human brain.

PubMed

Ekstrom, Arne D; Bookheimer, Susan Y

2007-10-01

Imaging, electrophysiological studies, and lesion work have shown that the medial temporal lobe (MTL) is important for episodic memory; however, it is unclear whether different MTL regions support the spatial, temporal, and item elements of episodic memory. In this study we used fMRI to examine retrieval performance emphasizing different aspects of episodic memory in the context of a spatial navigation paradigm. Subjects played a taxi-driver game ("yellowcab"), in which they freely searched for passengers and delivered them to specific landmark stores. Subjects then underwent fMRI scanning as they retrieved landmarks, spatial, and temporal associations from their navigational experience in three separate runs. Consistent with previous findings on item memory, perirhinal cortex activated most strongly during landmark retrieval compared with spatial or temporal source information retrieval. Both hippocampus and parahippocampal cortex activated significantly during retrieval of landmarks, spatial associations, and temporal order. We found, however, a significant dissociation between hippocampal and parahippocampal cortex activations, with spatial retrieval leading to greater parahippocampal activation compared with hippocampus and temporal order retrieval leading to greater hippocampal activation compared with parahippocampal cortex. Our results, coupled with previous findings, demonstrate that the hippocampus and parahippocampal cortex are preferentially recruited during temporal order and spatial association retrieval--key components of episodic "source" memory.

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

PubMed

Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

2013-09-01

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis , the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate.

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

PubMed Central

Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H.; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S.; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V.

2014-01-01

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001–2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

Harnessing Big Data to Represent 30-meter Spatial Heterogeneity in Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaney, N.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Van Huijgevoort, M.; Milly, C.; Sulman, B. N.

2016-12-01

Terrestrial land surface processes play a critical role in the Earth system; they have a profound impact on the global climate, food and energy production, freshwater resources, and biodiversity. One of the most fascinating yet challenging aspects of characterizing terrestrial ecosystems is their field-scale (˜30 m) spatial heterogeneity. It has been observed repeatedly that the water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles at multiple temporal and spatial scales have deep ties to an ecosystem's spatial structure. Current Earth system models largely disregard this important relationship leading to an inadequate representation of ecosystem dynamics. In this presentation, we will show how existing global environmental datasets can be harnessed to explicitly represent field-scale spatial heterogeneity in Earth system models. For each macroscale grid cell, these environmental data are clustered according to their field-scale soil and topographic attributes to define unique sub-grid tiles. The state-of-the-art Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) land model is then used to simulate these tiles and their spatial interactions via the exchange of water, energy, and nutrients along explicit topographic gradients. Using historical simulations over the contiguous United States, we will show how a robust representation of field-scale spatial heterogeneity impacts modeled ecosystem dynamics including the water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles as well as vegetation composition and distribution.

Spring bloom dinoflagellate cyst dynamics in three eastern sub-basins of the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sildever, Sirje; Kremp, Anke; Enke, Annely; Buschmann, Fred; Maljutenko, Ilja; Lips, Inga

2017-04-01

Dinoflagellate cyst abundance and species composition were investigated before, during and after the spring bloom in the Gulf of Finland, north-eastern Baltic Proper and Gulf of Riga in order to detect spatial and temporal dynamics. Transport of newly formed cysts by currents was modelled to explore the possible distance travelled by cysts before sedimentation. The cyst community of the spring bloom dinoflagellates was dominated by the cysts of Biecheleria baltica in all basins, despite its marginal value in the planktonic spring bloom community in the Gulf of Riga. Dinoflagellate cyst abundance in the surface sediments displayed temporal dynamics in all basins, however, this appeared to be also influenced by physical processes. The model simulation showed that newly formed cysts are transported around 10-30 km from the point of origin before deposited. The latter suggests that transport of resting stages in the water column significantly affects spatial cyst distribution in the sediments and thus needs to be considered in the interpretation of temporal biological productivity patterns of a water body from cyst proxies.

Direct Patlak Reconstruction From Dynamic PET Data Using the Kernel Method With MRI Information Based on Structural Similarity.

PubMed

Gong, Kuang; Cheng-Liao, Jinxiu; Wang, Guobao; Chen, Kevin T; Catana, Ciprian; Qi, Jinyi

2018-04-01

Positron emission tomography (PET) is a functional imaging modality widely used in oncology, cardiology, and neuroscience. It is highly sensitive, but suffers from relatively poor spatial resolution, as compared with anatomical imaging modalities, such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). With the recent development of combined PET/MR systems, we can improve the PET image quality by incorporating MR information into image reconstruction. Previously, kernel learning has been successfully embedded into static and dynamic PET image reconstruction using either PET temporal or MRI information. Here, we combine both PET temporal and MRI information adaptively to improve the quality of direct Patlak reconstruction. We examined different approaches to combine the PET and MRI information in kernel learning to address the issue of potential mismatches between MRI and PET signals. Computer simulations and hybrid real-patient data acquired on a simultaneous PET/MR scanner were used to evaluate the proposed methods. Results show that the method that combines PET temporal information and MRI spatial information adaptively based on the structure similarity index has the best performance in terms of noise reduction and resolution improvement.

Rumor diffusion model with spatio-temporal diffusion and uncertainty of behavior decision in complex social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Liang; Wang, Youguo

2018-07-01

In this paper, a rumor diffusion model with uncertainty of human behavior under spatio-temporal diffusion framework is established. Take physical significance of spatial diffusion into account, a diffusion threshold is set under which the rumor is not a trend topic and only spreads along determined physical connections. Heterogeneity of degree distribution and distance distribution has also been considered in theoretical model at the same time. The global existence and uniqueness of classical solution are proved with a Lyapunov function and an approximate classical solution in form of infinite series is constructed with a system of eigenfunction. Simulations and numerical solutions both on Watts-Strogatz (WS) network and Barabási-Albert (BA) network display the variation of density of infected connections from spatial and temporal dimensions. Relevant results show that the density of infected connections is dominated by network topology and uncertainty of human behavior at threshold time. With increase of social capability, rumor diffuses to the steady state in a higher speed. And the variation trends of diffusion size with uncertainty are diverse on different artificial networks.

Effect of spatial averaging on multifractal properties of meteorological time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, Holger; Baranowski, Piotr; Krzyszczak, Jaromir; Zubik, Monika

2016-04-01

Introduction The process-based models for large-scale simulations require input of agro-meteorological quantities that are often in the form of time series of coarse spatial resolution. Therefore, the knowledge about their scaling properties is fundamental for transferring locally measured fluctuations to larger scales and vice-versa. However, the scaling analysis of these quantities is complicated due to the presence of localized trends and non-stationarities. Here we assess how spatially aggregating meteorological data to coarser resolutions affects the data's temporal scaling properties. While it is known that spatial aggregation may affect spatial data properties (Hoffmann et al., 2015), it is unknown how it affects temporal data properties. Therefore, the objective of this study was to characterize the aggregation effect (AE) with regard to both temporal and spatial input data properties considering scaling properties (i.e. statistical self-similarity) of the chosen agro-meteorological time series through multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA). Materials and Methods Time series coming from years 1982-2011 were spatially averaged from 1 to 10, 25, 50 and 100 km resolution to assess the impact of spatial aggregation. Daily minimum, mean and maximum air temperature (2 m), precipitation, global radiation, wind speed and relative humidity (Zhao et al., 2015) were used. To reveal the multifractal structure of the time series, we used the procedure described in Baranowski et al. (2015). The diversity of the studied multifractals was evaluated by the parameters of time series spectra. In order to analyse differences in multifractal properties to 1 km resolution grids, data of coarser resolutions was disaggregated to 1 km. Results and Conclusions Analysing the spatial averaging on multifractal properties we observed that spatial patterns of the multifractal spectrum (MS) of all meteorological variables differed from 1 km grids and MS-parameters were biased by -29.1 % (precipitation; width of MS) up to >4 % (min. Temperature, Radiation; asymmetry of MS). Also, the spatial variability of MS parameters was strongly affected at the highest aggregation (100 km). Obtained results confirm that spatial data aggregation may strongly affect temporal scaling properties. This should be taken into account when upscaling for large-scale studies. Acknowledgements The study was conducted within FACCE MACSUR. Please see Baranowski et al. (2015) for details on funding. References Baranowski, P., Krzyszczak, J., Sławiński, C. et al. (2015). Climate Research 65, 39-52. Hoffman, H., G. Zhao, L.G.J. Van Bussel et al. (2015). Climate Research 65, 53-69. Zhao, G., Siebert, S., Rezaei E. et al. (2015). Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 200, 156-171.

Principal component reconstruction (PCR) for cine CBCT with motion learning from 2D fluoroscopy.

PubMed

Gao, Hao; Zhang, Yawei; Ren, Lei; Yin, Fang-Fang

2018-01-01

This work aims to generate cine CT images (i.e., 4D images with high-temporal resolution) based on a novel principal component reconstruction (PCR) technique with motion learning from 2D fluoroscopic training images. In the proposed PCR method, the matrix factorization is utilized as an explicit low-rank regularization of 4D images that are represented as a product of spatial principal components and temporal motion coefficients. The key hypothesis of PCR is that temporal coefficients from 4D images can be reasonably approximated by temporal coefficients learned from 2D fluoroscopic training projections. For this purpose, we can acquire fluoroscopic training projections for a few breathing periods at fixed gantry angles that are free from geometric distortion due to gantry rotation, that is, fluoroscopy-based motion learning. Such training projections can provide an effective characterization of the breathing motion. The temporal coefficients can be extracted from these training projections and used as priors for PCR, even though principal components from training projections are certainly not the same for these 4D images to be reconstructed. For this purpose, training data are synchronized with reconstruction data using identical real-time breathing position intervals for projection binning. In terms of image reconstruction, with a priori temporal coefficients, the data fidelity for PCR changes from nonlinear to linear, and consequently, the PCR method is robust and can be solved efficiently. PCR is formulated as a convex optimization problem with the sum of linear data fidelity with respect to spatial principal components and spatiotemporal total variation regularization imposed on 4D image phases. The solution algorithm of PCR is developed based on alternating direction method of multipliers. The implementation is fully parallelized on GPU with NVIDIA CUDA toolbox and each reconstruction takes about a few minutes. The proposed PCR method is validated and compared with a state-of-art method, that is, PICCS, using both simulation and experimental data with the on-board cone-beam CT setting. The results demonstrated the feasibility of PCR for cine CBCT and significantly improved reconstruction quality of PCR from PICCS for cine CBCT. With a priori estimated temporal motion coefficients using fluoroscopic training projections, the PCR method can accurately reconstruct spatial principal components, and then generate cine CT images as a product of temporal motion coefficients and spatial principal components. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Bayesian hierarchical models for regional climate reconstructions of the last glacial maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitzel, Nils; Hense, Andreas; Ohlwein, Christian

2017-04-01

Spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate are important for the understanding of the long term behavior of the climate system and the sensitivity to forcing changes. Unfortunately, they are subject to large uncertainties, have to deal with a complex proxy-climate structure, and a physically reasonable interpolation between the sparse proxy observations is difficult. Bayesian Hierarchical Models (BHMs) are a class of statistical models that is well suited for spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate because they permit the inclusion of multiple sources of information (e.g. records from different proxy types, uncertain age information, output from climate simulations) and quantify uncertainties in a statistically rigorous way. BHMs in paleoclimatology typically consist of three stages which are modeled individually and are combined using Bayesian inference techniques. The data stage models the proxy-climate relation (often named transfer function), the process stage models the spatio-temporal distribution of the climate variables of interest, and the prior stage consists of prior distributions of the model parameters. For our BHMs, we translate well-known proxy-climate transfer functions for pollen to a Bayesian framework. In addition, we can include Gaussian distributed local climate information from preprocessed proxy records. The process stage combines physically reasonable spatial structures from prior distributions with proxy records which leads to a multivariate posterior probability distribution for the reconstructed climate variables. The prior distributions that constrain the possible spatial structure of the climate variables are calculated from climate simulation output. We present results from pseudoproxy tests as well as new regional reconstructions of temperatures for the last glacial maximum (LGM, ˜ 21,000 years BP). These reconstructions combine proxy data syntheses with information from climate simulations for the LGM that were performed in the PMIP3 project. The proxy data syntheses consist either of raw pollen data or of normally distributed climate data from preprocessed proxy records. Future extensions of our method contain the inclusion of other proxy types (transfer functions), the implementation of other spatial interpolation techniques, the use of age uncertainties, and the extension to spatio-temporal reconstructions of the last deglaciation. Our work is part of the PalMod project funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Science (BMBF).

Rain radar measurement error estimation using data assimilation in an advection-based nowcasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merker, Claire; Ament, Felix; Clemens, Marco

2017-04-01

The quantification of measurement uncertainty for rain radar data remains challenging. Radar reflectivity measurements are affected, amongst other things, by calibration errors, noise, blocking and clutter, and attenuation. Their combined impact on measurement accuracy is difficult to quantify due to incomplete process understanding and complex interdependencies. An improved quality assessment of rain radar measurements is of interest for applications both in meteorology and hydrology, for example for precipitation ensemble generation, rainfall runoff simulations, or in data assimilation for numerical weather prediction. Especially a detailed description of the spatial and temporal structure of errors is beneficial in order to make best use of the areal precipitation information provided by radars. Radar precipitation ensembles are one promising approach to represent spatially variable radar measurement errors. We present a method combining ensemble radar precipitation nowcasting with data assimilation to estimate radar measurement uncertainty at each pixel. This combination of ensemble forecast and observation yields a consistent spatial and temporal evolution of the radar error field. We use an advection-based nowcasting method to generate an ensemble reflectivity forecast from initial data of a rain radar network. Subsequently, reflectivity data from single radars is assimilated into the forecast using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. The spread of the resulting analysis ensemble provides a flow-dependent, spatially and temporally correlated reflectivity error estimate at each pixel. We will present first case studies that illustrate the method using data from a high-resolution X-band radar network.

Longterm and spatial variability of Aerosol optical properties measured by sky radiometer in Japan sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aoki, K.

2016-12-01

Aerosols and cloud play an important role in the climate change. We started the long-term monitoring of aerosol and cloud optical properties since 1990's by using sky radiometer (POM-01, 02; Prede Co. Ltd., Japan). We provide the information, in this presentation, on the aerosol optical properties with respect to their temporal and spatial variability in Japan site (ex. Sapporo, Toyama, Kasuga and etc). The global distributions of aerosols have been derived from earth observation satellite and have been simulated in numerical models, which assume optical parameters. However, these distributions are difficult to derive because of variability in time and space. Therefore, Aerosol optical properties were investigated using the measurements from ground-based and ship-borne sky radiometer. The sky radiometer is an automatic instrument that takes observations only in daytime under the clear sky conditions. Observation of diffuse solar intensity interval was made every ten or five minutes by once. The aerosol optical properties were computed using the SKYRAD.pack version 4.2. The obtained Aerosol optical properties (Aerosol optical thickness, Ångström exponent, Single scattering albedo, and etc.) and size distribution volume clearly showed spatial and temporal variability in Japan area. In this study, we present the temporal and spatial variability of Aerosol optical properties at several Japan sites, applied to validation of satellite and numerical models. This project is validation satellite of GCOM-C, JAXA. The GCOM-C satellite scheduled to be launched in early 2017.

Quantifying terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the Jinsha watershed, Upper Yangtze, China from 1975 to 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang; Yin, Runsheng; Li, Zhengpeng; Deng, Yulin; Tan, Kun; Deng, Xiangzheng; Rothstein, David; Qi, Jiaguo

2010-01-01

Quantifying the spatial and temporal dynamics of carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems and carbon fluxes between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is critical to our understanding of regional patterns of carbon budgets. Here we use the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System to simulate the terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the Jinsha watershed of China’s upper Yangtze basin from 1975 to 2000, based on unique combinations of spatial and temporal dynamics of major driving forces, such as climate, soil properties, nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover changes. Our analysis demonstrates that the Jinsha watershed ecosystems acted as a carbon sink during the period of 1975–2000, with an average rate of 0.36 Mg/ha/yr, primarily resulting from regional climate variation and local land use and land cover change. Vegetation biomass accumulation accounted for 90.6% of the sink, while soil organic carbon loss before 1992 led to a lower net gain of carbon in the watershed, and after that soils became a small sink. Ecosystem carbon sink/source patterns showed a high degree of spatial heterogeneity. Carbon sinks were associated with forest areas without disturbances, whereas carbon sources were primarily caused by stand-replacing disturbances. It is critical to adequately represent the detailed fast-changing dynamics of land use activities in regional biogeochemical models to determine the spatial and temporal evolution of regional carbon sink/source patterns.

Temporal and spatial variability of aeolian sand transport: Implications for field measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, Jean T.; Sherman, Douglas J.; Farrell, Eugene J.; Li, Bailiang

2012-01-01

Horizontal variability is often cited as one source of disparity between observed and predicted rates of aeolian mass flux, but few studies have quantified the magnitude of this variability. Two field projects were conducted to evaluate meter-scale spatial and temporal in the saltation field. In Shoalhaven Heads, NSW, Australia a horizontal array of passive-style sand traps were deployed on a beach for 600 or 1200 s across a horizontal span of 0.80 m. In Jericoacoara, Brazil, traps spanning 4 m were deployed for 180 and 240 s. Five saltation sensors (miniphones) spaced 1 m apart were also deployed at Jericoacoara. Spatial variation in aeolian transport rates over small spatial and short temporal scales was substantial. The measured transport rates ( Q) obtained from the passive traps ranged from 0.70 to 32.63 g/m/s. When considering all traps, the coefficient of variation ( CoV) values ranged from 16.6% to 67.8%, and minimum and maximum range of variation coefficient ( RVC) values were 106.1% to 152.5% and 75.1% to 90.8%, respectively. The miniphone Q and CoV averaged 47.1% and 4.1% for the 1260 s data series, which was subsequently sub-sampled at 60-630 s intervals to simulate shorter deployment times. A statistically significant ( p < 0.002), inverselinear relationship was found between sample duration and CoV and between Q and CoV, the latter relationship also considering data from previous studies.

Role of Updraft Velocity in Temporal Variability of Global Cloud Hydrometeor Number

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sullivan, Sylvia C.; Lee, Dong Min; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Nenes, Athanasios

2016-01-01

Understanding how dynamical and aerosol inputs affect the temporal variability of hydrometeor formation in climate models will help to explain sources of model diversity in cloud forcing, to provide robust comparisons with data, and, ultimately, to reduce the uncertainty in estimates of the aerosol indirect effect. This variability attribution can be done at various spatial and temporal resolutions with metrics derived from online adjoint sensitivities of droplet and crystal number to relevant inputs. Such metrics are defined and calculated from simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model Version 5.1 (CAM5.1). Input updraft velocity fluctuations can explain as much as 48% of temporal variability in output ice crystal number and 61% in droplet number in GEOS-5 and up to 89% of temporal variability in output ice crystal number in CAM5.1. In both models, this vertical velocity attribution depends strongly on altitude. Despite its importance for hydrometeor formation, simulated vertical velocity distributions are rarely evaluated against observations due to the sparsity of relevant data. Coordinated effort by the atmospheric community to develop more consistent, observationally based updraft treatments will help to close this knowledge gap.

Role of updraft velocity in temporal variability of global cloud hydrometeor number

DOE PAGES

Sullivan, Sylvia C.; Lee, Dongmin; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; ...

2016-05-16

Understanding how dynamical and aerosol inputs affect the temporal variability of hydrometeor formation in climate models will help to explain sources of model diversity in cloud forcing, to provide robust comparisons with data, and, ultimately, to reduce the uncertainty in estimates of the aerosol indirect effect. This variability attribution can be done at various spatial and temporal resolutions with metrics derived from online adjoint sensitivities of droplet and crystal number to relevant inputs. Such metrics are defined and calculated from simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Communitymore » Atmosphere Model Version 5.1 (CAM5.1). Input updraft velocity fluctuations can explain as much as 48% of temporal variability in output ice crystal number and 61% in droplet number in GEOS-5 and up to 89% of temporal variability in output ice crystal number in CAM5.1. In both models, this vertical velocity attribution depends strongly on altitude. Despite its importance for hydrometeor formation, simulated vertical velocity distributions are rarely evaluated against observations due to the sparsity of relevant data. Finally, coordinated effort by the atmospheric community to develop more consistent, observationally based updraft treatments will help to close this knowledge gap.« less

Role of updraft velocity in temporal variability of global cloud hydrometeor number

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullivan, Sylvia C.; Lee, Dongmin; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Nenes, Athanasios

2016-05-01

Understanding how dynamical and aerosol inputs affect the temporal variability of hydrometeor formation in climate models will help to explain sources of model diversity in cloud forcing, to provide robust comparisons with data, and, ultimately, to reduce the uncertainty in estimates of the aerosol indirect effect. This variability attribution can be done at various spatial and temporal resolutions with metrics derived from online adjoint sensitivities of droplet and crystal number to relevant inputs. Such metrics are defined and calculated from simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model Version 5.1 (CAM5.1). Input updraft velocity fluctuations can explain as much as 48% of temporal variability in output ice crystal number and 61% in droplet number in GEOS-5 and up to 89% of temporal variability in output ice crystal number in CAM5.1. In both models, this vertical velocity attribution depends strongly on altitude. Despite its importance for hydrometeor formation, simulated vertical velocity distributions are rarely evaluated against observations due to the sparsity of relevant data. Coordinated effort by the atmospheric community to develop more consistent, observationally based updraft treatments will help to close this knowledge gap.

Modeling the spatial and temporal population dynamics of the copepod Centropages typicus in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea during the year 2001 using a 3D ecosystem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlotti, F.; Eisenhauer, L.; Campbell, R.; Diaz, F.

2014-07-01

The spatio-temporal dynamics of a simulated Centropages typicus (Kröyer) population during the year 2001 at the regional scale of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea are addressed using a 3D coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The setup of the coupled biological model comprises a pelagic plankton ecosystem model and a stage-structured population model forced by the 3D velocity and temperature fields provided by an eddy-resolving regional circulation model. The population model for C. typicus (C. t. below) represents demographic processes through five groups of developmental stages, which depend on underlying individual growth and development processes and are forced by both biotic (prey and predator fields) and abiotic (temperature, advection) factors from the coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The objective is to characterize C. t. ontogenic habitats driven by physical and trophic processes. The annual dynamics are presented for two of the main oceanographic stations in the Gulf of Lions, which are representative of shelf and open sea conditions, while the spatial distributions over the whole area are presented for three dates during the year, in early and late spring and in winter. The simulated spatial patterns of C. t. developmental stages are closely related to mesoscale hydrodynamic features and circulation patterns. The seasonal and spatial distributions on the Gulf of Lions shelf depend on the seasonal interplay between the Rhône river plume, the mesoscale eddies on the shelf and the Northern Current acting as either as a dynamic barrier between the shelf and the open sea or allowing cross-shelf exchanges. In the central gyre of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, the patchiness of plankton is tightly linked to mesoscale frontal systems, surface eddies and filaments and deep gradients. Due to its flexibility in terms of its diet, C. t. succeeds in maintaining its population in both coastal and offshore areas year round. The simulations suggest that the winte-spring food conditions are more favorable on the shelf for C. t., whereas in late summer and fall, the offshore depth-integrated food biomasses represent a larger resource for C. t., particularly when mesoscale structures and vertical discontinuities increase food patchiness. The development and reproduction of C. t. depend on the prey field within the mesoscale structures that induce a contrasting spatial distribution of successive developmental stages on a given observation date. In late fall and winter, the results of the model suggest the existence of three refuge areas where the population maintains winter generations near the coast and within the Rhone River plume, or offshore within canyons within the shelf break, or in the frontal system related to the Northern Current. The simulated spatial and temporal distributions as well as the life cycle and physiological features of C. t. are discussed in light of recent reviews on the dynamics of C. t. in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea.

Numerical simulation of the Maui Vortex in the trade winds

Treesearch

Kyozo Ueyoshi; John O. Roads; Francis Fujioka; Duane E. Stevens

1996-01-01

On the island of Maui, the dispersion of air pollutants associated with the field burning of biomass is complicated because the persistent Maui Vortex in the lee of Haleakala tends to trap smoke making pollution concentration worse in the central valley. In the present study we describe the spatially as well as temporally continuous short-term climatology of the...

Random generation of the turbulence slopes of a Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor.

PubMed

Conan, Rodolphe

2014-03-15

A method to generate the turbulence measurements of a Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor is presented. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the spatial and temporal statistic properties of the slopes are respected, allowing us to generate the turbulence wavefront gradient corresponding to both natural and laser guide stars, as well as time series in accordance with the frozen flow model.

Toward Robust Estimation of the Components of Forest Population Change

Treesearch

Francis A. Roesch

2014-01-01

Multiple levels of simulation are used to test the robustness of estimators of the components of change. I first created a variety of spatial-temporal populations based on, but more variable than, an actual forest monitoring data set and then sampled those populations under a variety of sampling error structures. The performance of each of four estimation approaches is...

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

Treesearch

Donald McKenzie; Jeremy S. Littell

2017-01-01

Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong,...

Expanding the scale of forest management: allocating timber harvests in time and space

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson

1996-01-01

This study examined the effect of clustering timber harvest zones and of changing the land use categories of zones (dynamic zoning) over varying temporal and spatial scales. Focusing on the Hoosier National Forest (HNF) in Indiana, USA as a study area, I used a timber harvest allocation model to simulate four management alternatives. In the static zoning alternative,...

SUBSURFACE RESIDENCE TIMES AS AN ALGORITHM FOR AQUIFER SENSITIVITY MAPPING: TESTING THE CONCEPT WITH ANALYTIC ELEMENT GROUND WATER MODELS IN THE CONTENTNEA CREEK BASIN, NORTH CAROLINA, USA

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this research is to test the utility of simple functions of spatially integrated and temporally averaged ground water residence times in shallow "groundwatersheds" with field observations and more detailed computer simulations. The residence time of water in the...

Patentability aspects of computational cancer models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lishchuk, Iryna

2017-07-01

Multiscale cancer models, implemented in silico, simulate tumor progression at various spatial and temporal scales. Having the innovative substance and possessing the potential of being applied as decision support tools in clinical practice, patenting and obtaining patent rights in cancer models seems prima facie possible. What legal hurdles the cancer models need to overcome for being patented we inquire from this paper.

Assessment of the FARSITE model for predicting fire behavior in the Southern Appalachian Mountains

Treesearch

Ross J. Phillips; Thomas A. Waldrop; Dean M. Simon

2006-01-01

Fuel reduction treatments are necessary in fire-adapted ecosystems where fire has been excluded for decades and the potential for severe wildfire is high. Using the Fire Area Simulator, FARSITE, we examined the spatial and temporal effects of these treatments on fire behavior in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. With measurements from temperature sensors during...

EVALUATING TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL O3 AND PM2.5 PATTERNS SIMULATED DURING AN ANNUAL CMAS APPLICATION OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S.

EPA Science Inventory

Over the next several years, grid-based photochemical models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and REMSAD will be used by regulatory agencies to design emission control strategies aimed at meeting and maintaining the NAAQS for O3 and PM2.5. The evaluation ...

Modeling precipitation-runoff relationships to determine water yield from a ponderosa pine forest watershed

Treesearch

Assefa S. Desta

2006-01-01

A stochastic precipitation-runoff modeling is used to estimate a cold and warm-seasons water yield from a ponderosa pine forested watershed in the north-central Arizona. The model consists of two parts namely, simulation of the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation using a stochastic, event-based approach and estimation of water yield from the watershed...

VEMAP phase 2 bioclimatic database. I. Gridded historical (20th century) climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous USA

Treesearch

Timothy G.F. Kittel; Nan. A. Rosenbloom; J.A. Royle; C. Daly; W.P. Gibson; H.H. Fisher; P. Thornton; D.N. Yates; S. Aulenbach; C. Kaufman; R. McKeown; Dominque Bachelet; David S. Schimel

2004-01-01

Analysis and simulation of biospheric responses to historical forcing require surface climate data that capture those aspects of climate that control ecological processes, including key spatial gradients and modes of temporal variability. We developed a multivariate, gridded historical climate dataset for the conterminous USA as a common input database for the...

Modeling of Long-Term Evolution of Hydrophysical Fields of the Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorofeyev, V. L.; Sukhikh, L. I.

2017-11-01

The long-term evolution of the Black Sea dynamics (1980-2020) is reconstructed by numerical simulation. The model of the Black Sea circulation has 4.8 km horizontal spatial resolution and 40 levels in z-coordinates. The mixing processes in the upper layer are parameterized by Mellor-Yamada turbulent model. For the sea surface boundary conditions, atmospheric forcing functions were used, provided for the Black Sea region by the Euro mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) from the COSMO-CLM regional climate model. These data have a spatial resolution of 14 km and a daily temporal resolution. To evaluate the quality of the hydrodynamic fields derived from the simulation, they were compared with in-situ hydrological measurements and similar results from physical reanalysis of the Black Sea.