The National Atlas of Ecosystem Services: Spatially Explicit Characterization of Ecosystem Services

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA’s Ecosystem Services Research Program (ESRP) is conducting transdisciplinary research to develop tools to enable decision-makers at all levels of governance to proactively conserve ecosystem services. One of these tools is a National Atlas of Ecosystem Services which ...

Evaluating relative impacts of habitat loss and invasive species on an endemic songbird using spatially explicit population models

EPA Science Inventory

Island ecosystems maintain greater endemic biodiversity such that changes in land cover can have dramatic impacts on wildlife populations that depend on unique and limited habitat. Sustainable land use decisions that minimize habitat loss require multi-faceted evaluation of cost...

Spatially explicit modeling of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) habitat in Nevada and northeastern California: a decision-support tool for management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Ricca, Mark A.; Gustafson, K. Benjamin; Overton, Cory T.; Sanchez-Chopitea, Erika; Kroger, Travis; Mauch, Kimberly; Niell, Lara; Howe, Kristy; Gardner, Scott; Espinosa, Shawn; Delehanty, David J.

2014-01-01

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus, hereafter referred to as “sage-grouse”) populations are declining throughout the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystem, including millions of acres of potential habitat across the West. Habitat maps derived from empirical data are needed given impending listing decisions that will affect both sage-grouse population dynamics and human land-use restrictions. This report presents the process for developing spatially explicit maps describing relative habitat suitability for sage-grouse in Nevada and northeastern California. Maps depicting habitat suitability indices (HSI) values were generated based on model-averaged resource selection functions informed by more than 31,000 independent telemetry locations from more than 1,500 radio-marked sage-grouse across 12 project areas in Nevada and northeastern California collected during a 15-year period (1998–2013). Modeled habitat covariates included land cover composition, water resources, habitat configuration, elevation, and topography, each at multiple spatial scales that were relevant to empirically observed sage-grouse movement patterns. We then present an example of how the HSI can be delineated into categories. Specifically, we demonstrate that the deviation from the mean can be used to classify habitat suitability into three categories of habitat quality (high, moderate, and low) and one non-habitat category. The classification resulted in an agreement of 93–97 percent for habitat versus non-habitat across a suite of independent validation datasets. Lastly, we provide an example of how space use models can be integrated with habitat models to help inform conservation planning. In this example, we combined probabilistic breeding density with a non-linear probability of occurrence relative to distance to nearest lek (traditional breeding ground) using count data to calculate a composite space use index (SUI). The SUI was then classified into two categories of use (high and low-to-no) and intersected with the HSI categories to create potential management prioritization scenarios based oninformation about sage-grouse occupancy coupled with habitat suitability. This provided an example of a conservation planning application that uses the intersection of the spatially-explicit HSI and empirically-based SUI to identify potential spatially explicit strategies for sage-grouse management. Importantly, the reported categories for the HSI and SUI can be reclassified relatively easily to employ alternative conservation thresholds that may be identified through decision-making processes with stake-holders, managers, and biologists. Moreover, the HSI/SUI interface map can be updated readily as new data become available.

Estimating and interpreting migration of Amazonian forests using spatially implicit and semi-explicit neutral models.

PubMed

Pos, Edwin; Guevara Andino, Juan Ernesto; Sabatier, Daniel; Molino, Jean-François; Pitman, Nigel; Mogollón, Hugo; Neill, David; Cerón, Carlos; Rivas-Torres, Gonzalo; Di Fiore, Anthony; Thomas, Raquel; Tirado, Milton; Young, Kenneth R; Wang, Ophelia; Sierra, Rodrigo; García-Villacorta, Roosevelt; Zagt, Roderick; Palacios Cuenca, Walter; Aulestia, Milton; Ter Steege, Hans

2017-06-01

With many sophisticated methods available for estimating migration, ecologists face the difficult decision of choosing for their specific line of work. Here we test and compare several methods, performing sanity and robustness tests, applying to large-scale data and discussing the results and interpretation. Five methods were selected to compare for their ability to estimate migration from spatially implicit and semi-explicit simulations based on three large-scale field datasets from South America (Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana and Ecuador). Space was incorporated semi-explicitly by a discrete probability mass function for local recruitment, migration from adjacent plots or from a metacommunity. Most methods were able to accurately estimate migration from spatially implicit simulations. For spatially semi-explicit simulations, estimation was shown to be the additive effect of migration from adjacent plots and the metacommunity. It was only accurate when migration from the metacommunity outweighed that of adjacent plots, discrimination, however, proved to be impossible. We show that migration should be considered more an approximation of the resemblance between communities and the summed regional species pool. Application of migration estimates to simulate field datasets did show reasonably good fits and indicated consistent differences between sets in comparison with earlier studies. We conclude that estimates of migration using these methods are more an approximation of the homogenization among local communities over time rather than a direct measurement of migration and hence have a direct relationship with beta diversity. As betadiversity is the result of many (non)-neutral processes, we have to admit that migration as estimated in a spatial explicit world encompasses not only direct migration but is an ecological aggregate of these processes. The parameter m of neutral models then appears more as an emerging property revealed by neutral theory instead of being an effective mechanistic parameter and spatially implicit models should be rejected as an approximation of forest dynamics.

A methodological approach for deriving regional crop rotations as basis for the assessment of the impact of agricultural strategies using soil erosion as example.

PubMed

Lorenz, Marco; Fürst, Christine; Thiel, Enrico

2013-09-01

Regarding increasing pressures by global societal and climate change, the assessment of the impact of land use and land management practices on land degradation and the related decrease in sustainable provision of ecosystem services gains increasing interest. Existing approaches to assess agricultural practices focus on the assessment of single crops or statistical data because spatially explicit information on practically applied crop rotations is mostly not available. This provokes considerable uncertainties in crop production models as regional specifics have to be neglected or cannot be considered in an appropriate way. In a case study in Saxony, we developed an approach to (i) derive representative regional crop rotations by combining different data sources and expert knowledge. This includes the integration of innovative crop sequences related to bio-energy production or organic farming and different soil tillage, soil management and soil protection techniques. Furthermore, (ii) we developed a regionalization approach for transferring crop rotations and related soil management strategies on the basis of statistical data and spatially explicit data taken from so called field blocks. These field blocks are the smallest spatial entity for which agricultural practices must be reported to apply for agricultural funding within the frame of the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) program. The information was finally integrated into the spatial decision support tool GISCAME to assess and visualize in spatially explicit manner the impact of alternative agricultural land use strategies on soil erosion risk and ecosystem services provision. Objective of this paper is to present the approach how to create spatially explicit information on agricultural management practices for a study area around Dresden, the capital of the German Federal State Saxony. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forecasting the effects of land-use and climate change on wildlife communities and habitats in the lower Mississippi Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faulkner, Stephen P.

2010-01-01

Landscape patterns and processes reflect both natural ecosystem attributes and the policy and management decisions of individual Federal, State, county, and private organizations. Land-use regulation, water management, and habitat conservation and restoration efforts increasingly rely on landscape-level approaches that incorporate scientific information into the decision-making process. Since management actions are implemented to affect future conditions, decision-support models are necessary to forecast potential future conditions resulting from these decisions. Spatially explicit modeling approaches enable testing of different scenarios and help evaluate potential outcomes of management actions in conjunction with natural processes such as climate change. The ability to forecast the effects of changing land use and climate is critically important to land and resource managers since their work is inherently site specific, yet conservation strategies and practices are expressed at higher spatial and temporal scales that must be considered in the decisionmaking process.

Asking better questions: How presentation formats influence information search.

PubMed

Wu, Charley M; Meder, Björn; Filimon, Flavia; Nelson, Jonathan D

2017-08-01

While the influence of presentation formats have been widely studied in Bayesian reasoning tasks, we present the first systematic investigation of how presentation formats influence information search decisions. Four experiments were conducted across different probabilistic environments, where subjects (N = 2,858) chose between 2 possible search queries, each with binary probabilistic outcomes, with the goal of maximizing classification accuracy. We studied 14 different numerical and visual formats for presenting information about the search environment, constructed across 6 design features that have been prominently related to improvements in Bayesian reasoning accuracy (natural frequencies, posteriors, complement, spatial extent, countability, and part-to-whole information). The posterior variants of the icon array and bar graph formats led to the highest proportion of correct responses, and were substantially better than the standard probability format. Results suggest that presenting information in terms of posterior probabilities and visualizing natural frequencies using spatial extent (a perceptual feature) were especially helpful in guiding search decisions, although environments with a mixture of probabilistic and certain outcomes were challenging across all formats. Subjects who made more accurate probability judgments did not perform better on the search task, suggesting that simple decision heuristics may be used to make search decisions without explicitly applying Bayesian inference to compute probabilities. We propose a new take-the-difference (TTD) heuristic that identifies the accuracy-maximizing query without explicit computation of posterior probabilities. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Spatial Bayesian belief networks as a planning decision tool for mapping ecosystem services trade-offs on forested landscapes.

PubMed

Gonzalez-Redin, Julen; Luque, Sandra; Poggio, Laura; Smith, Ron; Gimona, Alessandro

2016-01-01

An integrated methodology, based on linking Bayesian belief networks (BBN) with GIS, is proposed for combining available evidence to help forest managers evaluate implications and trade-offs between forest production and conservation measures to preserve biodiversity in forested habitats. A Bayesian belief network is a probabilistic graphical model that represents variables and their dependencies through specifying probabilistic relationships. In spatially explicit decision problems where it is difficult to choose appropriate combinations of interventions, the proposed integration of a BBN with GIS helped to facilitate shared understanding of the human-landscape relationships, while fostering collective management that can be incorporated into landscape planning processes. Trades-offs become more and more relevant in these landscape contexts where the participation of many and varied stakeholder groups is indispensable. With these challenges in mind, our integrated approach incorporates GIS-based data with expert knowledge to consider two different land use interests - biodiversity value for conservation and timber production potential - with the focus on a complex mountain landscape in the French Alps. The spatial models produced provided different alternatives of suitable sites that can be used by policy makers in order to support conservation priorities while addressing management options. The approach provided provide a common reasoning language among different experts from different backgrounds while helped to identify spatially explicit conflictive areas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Issues of Spatial and Temporal Scale in Modeling the Effects of Field Operatiions on Soil Properties

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Tillage is an important procedure for modifying the soil environment in order to enhance crop growth and conserve soil and water resources. Process-based models of crop production are widely used in decision support, but few explicitly simulate tillage. The Cropping Systems Model (CSM) was modified ...

Assessment and Mapping of Forest Parcel Sizes

Treesearch

Brett J. Butler; Susan L. King

2005-01-01

A method for analyzing and mapping forest parcel sizes in the Northeastern United States is presented. A decision tree model was created that predicts forest parcel size from spatially explicit predictor variables: population density, State, percentage forest land cover, and road density. The model correctly predicted parcel size for 60 percent of the observations in a...

A web-based multicriteria evaluation of spatial trade-offs between environmental and economic implications from hydraulic fracturing in a shale gas region in Ohio.

PubMed

Liu, X; Gorsevski, P V; Yacobucci, M M; Onasch, C M

2016-06-01

Planning of shale gas infrastructure and drilling sites for hydraulic fracturing has important spatial implications. The evaluation of conflicting and competing objectives requires an explicit consideration of multiple criteria as they have important environmental and economic implications. This study presents a web-based multicriteria spatial decision support system (SDSS) prototype with a flexible and user-friendly interface that could provide educational or decision-making capabilities with respect to hydraulic fracturing site selection in eastern Ohio. One of the main features of this SDSS is to emphasize potential trade-offs between important factors of environmental and economic ramifications from hydraulic fracturing activities using a weighted linear combination (WLC) method. In the prototype, the GIS-enabled analytical components allow spontaneous visualization of available alternatives on maps which provide value-added features for decision support processes and derivation of final decision maps. The SDSS prototype also facilitates nonexpert participation capabilities using a mapping module, decision-making tool, group decision module, and social media sharing tools. The logical flow of successively presented forms and standardized criteria maps is used to generate visualization of trade-off scenarios and alternative solutions tailored to individual user's preferences that are graphed for subsequent decision-making.

Utility assessment of a map-based online geo-collaboration tool.

PubMed

Sidlar, Christopher L; Rinner, Claus

2009-05-01

Spatial group decision-making processes often include both informal and analytical components. Discussions among stakeholders or planning experts are an example of an informal component. When participants discuss spatial planning projects they typically express concerns and comments by pointing to places on a map. The Argumentation Map model provides a conceptual basis for collaborative tools that enable explicit linkages of arguments to the places to which they refer. These tools allow for the input of explicitly geo-referenced arguments as well as the visual access to arguments through a map interface. In this paper, we will review previous utility studies in geo-collaboration and evaluate a case study of a Web-based Argumentation Map application. The case study was conducted in the summer of 2005 when student participants discussed planning issues on the University of Toronto St. George campus. During a one-week unmoderated discussion phase, 11 participants wrote 60 comments on issues such as safety, facilities, parking, and building aesthetics. By measuring the participants' use of geographic references, we draw conclusions on how well the software tool supported the potential of the underlying concept. This research aims to contribute to a scientific approach to geo-collaboration in which the engineering of novel spatial decision support methods is complemented by a critical assessment of their utility in controlled, realistic experiments.

The need for spatially explicit quantification of benefits in invasive-species management.

PubMed

Januchowski-Hartley, Stephanie R; Adams, Vanessa M; Hermoso, Virgilio

2018-04-01

Worldwide, invasive species are a leading driver of environmental change across terrestrial, marine, and freshwater environments and cost billions of dollars annually in ecological damages and economic losses. Resources limit invasive-species control, and planning processes are needed to identify cost-effective solutions. Thus, studies are increasingly considering spatially variable natural and socioeconomic assets (e.g., species persistence, recreational fishing) when planning the allocation of actions for invasive-species management. There is a need to improve understanding of how such assets are considered in invasive-species management. We reviewed over 1600 studies focused on management of invasive species, including flora and fauna. Eighty-four of these studies were included in our final analysis because they focused on the prioritization of actions for invasive species management. Forty-five percent (n = 38) of these studies were based on spatial optimization methods, and 35% (n = 13) accounted for spatially variable assets. Across all 84 optimization studies considered, 27% (n = 23) explicitly accounted for spatially variable assets. Based on our findings, we further explored the potential costs and benefits to invasive species management when spatially variable assets are explicitly considered or not. To include spatially variable assets in decision-making processes that guide invasive-species management there is a need to quantify environmental responses to invasive species and to enhance understanding of potential impacts of invasive species on different natural or socioeconomic assets. We suggest these gaps could be filled by systematic reviews, quantifying invasive species impacts on native species at different periods, and broadening sources and enhancing sharing of knowledge. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Wildfire risk management on a landscape with public and private ownership: Who pays for protection?

Treesearch

Gwenlyn Busby; Heidi J. Albers

2010-01-01

Wildfire, like many natural hazards, affects large landscapes with many landowners and the risk individual owners face depends on both individual and collective protective actions. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit game theoretic model to examine the strategic interaction between landowners' hazard mitigation decisions on a landscape with public and...

Model-based scenario planning to develop climate change adaptation strategies for rare plant populations in grassland reserves

Treesearch

Laura Phillips-Mao; Susan M. Galatowitsch; Stephanie A. Snyder; Robert G. Haight

2016-01-01

Incorporating climate change into conservation decision-making at site and population scales is challenging due to uncertainties associated with localized climate change impacts and population responses to multiple interacting impacts and adaptation strategies. We explore the use of spatially explicit population models to facilitate scenario analysis, a conservation...

Bayesian methods to estimate urban growth potential

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Jordan W.; Smart, Lindsey S.; Dorning, Monica; Dupéy, Lauren Nicole; Méley, Andréanne; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

2017-01-01

Urban growth often influences the production of ecosystem services. The impacts of urbanization on landscapes can subsequently affect landowners’ perceptions, values and decisions regarding their land. Within land-use and land-change research, very few models of dynamic landscape-scale processes like urbanization incorporate empirically-grounded landowner decision-making processes. Very little attention has focused on the heterogeneous decision-making processes that aggregate to influence broader-scale patterns of urbanization. We examine the land-use tradeoffs faced by individual landowners in one of the United States’ most rapidly urbanizing regions − the urban area surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina. We focus on the land-use decisions of non-industrial private forest owners located across the region’s development gradient. A discrete choice experiment is used to determine the critical factors influencing individual forest owners’ intent to sell their undeveloped properties across a series of experimentally varied scenarios of urban growth. Data are analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The estimates derived from the survey data are used to modify a spatially-explicit trend-based urban development potential model, derived from remotely-sensed imagery and observed changes in the region’s socioeconomic and infrastructural characteristics between 2000 and 2011. This modeling approach combines the theoretical underpinnings of behavioral economics with spatiotemporal data describing a region’s historical development patterns. By integrating empirical social preference data into spatially-explicit urban growth models, we begin to more realistically capture processes as well as patterns that drive the location, magnitude and rates of urban growth.

The Be-WetSpa-Pest modeling approach to simulate human and environmental exposure from pesticide application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binder, Claudia; Garcia-Santos, Glenda; Andreoli, Romano; Diaz, Jaime; Feola, Giuseppe; Wittensoeldner, Moritz; Yang, Jing

2016-04-01

This study presents an integrative and spatially explicit modeling approach for analyzing human and environmental exposure from pesticide application of smallholders in the potato producing Andean region in Colombia. The modeling approach fulfills the following criteria: (i) it includes environmental and human compartments; (ii) it contains a behavioral decision-making model for estimating the effect of policies on pesticide flows to humans and the environment; (iii) it is spatially explicit; and (iv) it is modular and easily expandable to include additional modules, crops or technologies. The model was calibrated and validated for the Vereda La Hoya and was used to explore the effect of different policy measures in the region. The model has moderate data requirements and can be adapted relatively easy to other regions in developing countries with similar conditions.

Empirical evaluation of spatial and non-spatial European-scale multimedia fate models: results and implications for chemical risk assessment.

PubMed

Armitage, James M; Cousins, Ian T; Hauck, Mara; Harbers, Jasper V; Huijbregts, Mark A J

2007-06-01

Multimedia environmental fate models are commonly-applied tools for assessing the fate and distribution of contaminants in the environment. Owing to the large number of chemicals in use and the paucity of monitoring data, such models are often adopted as part of decision-support systems for chemical risk assessment. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of three multimedia environmental fate models (spatially- and non-spatially-explicit) at a European scale. The assessment was conducted for four polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and compared predicted and median observed concentrations using monitoring data collected for air, water, sediments and soils. Model performance in the air compartment was reasonable for all models included in the evaluation exercise as predicted concentrations were typically within a factor of 3 of the median observed concentrations. Furthermore, there was good correspondence between predictions and observations in regions that had elevated median observed concentrations for both spatially-explicit models. On the other hand, all three models consistently underestimated median observed concentrations in sediment and soil by 1-3 orders of magnitude. Although regions with elevated median observed concentrations in these environmental media were broadly identified by the spatially-explicit models, the magnitude of the discrepancy between predicted and median observed concentrations is of concern in the context of chemical risk assessment. These results were discussed in terms of factors influencing model performance such as the steady-state assumption, inaccuracies in emission estimates and the representativeness of monitoring data.

On the effects of scale for ecosystem services mapping

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne; Weibel, Bettina; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Ferrari, Marika; Geneletti, Davide; Klug, Hermann; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike

2014-01-01

Ecosystems provide life-sustaining services upon which human civilization depends, but their degradation largely continues unabated. Spatially explicit information on ecosystem services (ES) provision is required to better guide decision making, particularly for mountain systems, which are characterized by vertical gradients and isolation with high topographic complexity, making them particularly sensitive to global change. But while spatially explicit ES quantification and valuation allows the identification of areas of abundant or limited supply of and demand for ES, the accuracy and usefulness of the information varies considerably depending on the scale and methods used. Using four case studies from mountainous regions in Europe and the U.S., we quantify information gains and losses when mapping five ES - carbon sequestration, flood regulation, agricultural production, timber harvest, and scenic beauty - at coarse and fine resolution (250 m vs. 25 m in Europe and 300 m vs. 30 m in the U.S.). We analyze the effects of scale on ES estimates and their spatial pattern and show how these effects are related to different ES, terrain structure and model properties. ES estimates differ substantially between the fine and coarse resolution analyses in all case studies and across all services. This scale effect is not equally strong for all ES. We show that spatially explicit information about non-clustered, isolated ES tends to be lost at coarse resolution and against expectation, mainly in less rugged terrain, which calls for finer resolution assessments in such contexts. The effect of terrain ruggedness is also related to model properties such as dependency on land use-land cover data. We close with recommendations for mapping ES to make the resulting maps more comparable, and suggest a four-step approach to address the issue of scale when mapping ES that can deliver information to support ES-based decision making with greater accuracy and reliability.

On the Effects of Scale for Ecosystem Services Mapping

PubMed Central

Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne; Weibel, Bettina; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Ferrari, Marika; Geneletti, Davide; Klug, Hermann; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike

2014-01-01

Ecosystems provide life-sustaining services upon which human civilization depends, but their degradation largely continues unabated. Spatially explicit information on ecosystem services (ES) provision is required to better guide decision making, particularly for mountain systems, which are characterized by vertical gradients and isolation with high topographic complexity, making them particularly sensitive to global change. But while spatially explicit ES quantification and valuation allows the identification of areas of abundant or limited supply of and demand for ES, the accuracy and usefulness of the information varies considerably depending on the scale and methods used. Using four case studies from mountainous regions in Europe and the U.S., we quantify information gains and losses when mapping five ES - carbon sequestration, flood regulation, agricultural production, timber harvest, and scenic beauty - at coarse and fine resolution (250 m vs. 25 m in Europe and 300 m vs. 30 m in the U.S.). We analyze the effects of scale on ES estimates and their spatial pattern and show how these effects are related to different ES, terrain structure and model properties. ES estimates differ substantially between the fine and coarse resolution analyses in all case studies and across all services. This scale effect is not equally strong for all ES. We show that spatially explicit information about non-clustered, isolated ES tends to be lost at coarse resolution and against expectation, mainly in less rugged terrain, which calls for finer resolution assessments in such contexts. The effect of terrain ruggedness is also related to model properties such as dependency on land use-land cover data. We close with recommendations for mapping ES to make the resulting maps more comparable, and suggest a four-step approach to address the issue of scale when mapping ES that can deliver information to support ES-based decision making with greater accuracy and reliability. PMID:25549256

On the effects of scale for ecosystem services mapping.

PubMed

Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne; Weibel, Bettina; Bagstad, Kenneth J; Ferrari, Marika; Geneletti, Davide; Klug, Hermann; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike

2014-01-01

Ecosystems provide life-sustaining services upon which human civilization depends, but their degradation largely continues unabated. Spatially explicit information on ecosystem services (ES) provision is required to better guide decision making, particularly for mountain systems, which are characterized by vertical gradients and isolation with high topographic complexity, making them particularly sensitive to global change. But while spatially explicit ES quantification and valuation allows the identification of areas of abundant or limited supply of and demand for ES, the accuracy and usefulness of the information varies considerably depending on the scale and methods used. Using four case studies from mountainous regions in Europe and the U.S., we quantify information gains and losses when mapping five ES - carbon sequestration, flood regulation, agricultural production, timber harvest, and scenic beauty - at coarse and fine resolution (250 m vs. 25 m in Europe and 300 m vs. 30 m in the U.S.). We analyze the effects of scale on ES estimates and their spatial pattern and show how these effects are related to different ES, terrain structure and model properties. ES estimates differ substantially between the fine and coarse resolution analyses in all case studies and across all services. This scale effect is not equally strong for all ES. We show that spatially explicit information about non-clustered, isolated ES tends to be lost at coarse resolution and against expectation, mainly in less rugged terrain, which calls for finer resolution assessments in such contexts. The effect of terrain ruggedness is also related to model properties such as dependency on land use-land cover data. We close with recommendations for mapping ES to make the resulting maps more comparable, and suggest a four-step approach to address the issue of scale when mapping ES that can deliver information to support ES-based decision making with greater accuracy and reliability.

Mapping malaria risk and vulnerability in the United Republic of Tanzania: a spatial explicit model.

PubMed

Hagenlocher, Michael; Castro, Marcia C

2015-01-01

Outbreaks of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) impose a heavy burden on vulnerable populations. Despite recent progress in eradication and control, malaria remains the most prevalent VBD. Integrative approaches that take into account environmental, socioeconomic, demographic, biological, cultural, and political factors contributing to malaria risk and vulnerability are needed to effectively reduce malaria burden. Although the focus on malaria risk has increasingly gained ground, little emphasis has been given to develop quantitative methods for assessing malaria risk including malaria vulnerability in a spatial explicit manner. Building on a conceptual risk and vulnerability framework, we propose a spatial explicit approach for modeling relative levels of malaria risk - as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability - in the United Republic of Tanzania. A logistic regression model was employed to identify a final set of risk factors and their contribution to malaria endemicity based on multidisciplinary geospatial information. We utilized a Geographic Information System for the construction and visualization of a malaria vulnerability index and its integration into a spatially explicit malaria risk map. The spatial pattern of malaria risk was very heterogeneous across the country. Malaria risk was higher in Mainland areas than in Zanzibar, which is a result of differences in both malaria entomological inoculation rate and prevailing vulnerabilities. Areas of high malaria risk were identified in the southeastern part of the country, as well as in two distinct "hotspots" in the northwestern part of the country bordering Lake Victoria, while concentrations of high malaria vulnerability seem to occur in the northwestern, western, and southeastern parts of the mainland. Results were visualized using both 10×10 km(2) grids and subnational administrative units. The presented approach makes an important contribution toward a decision support tool. By decomposing malaria risk into its components, the approach offers evidence on which factors could be targeted for reducing malaria risk and vulnerability to the disease. Ultimately, results offer relevant information for place-based intervention planning and more effective spatial allocation of resources.

Historical fire and vegetation dynamics in dry forests of the interior Pacific Northwest, USA, and relationships to northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) habitat conservation

Treesearch

Rebecca S.H. Kennedy; Michael C. Wimberly

2009-01-01

Regional conservation planning frequently relies on general assumptions about historical disturbance regimes to inform decisions about landscape restoration, reserve allocations, and landscape management. Spatially explicit simulations of landscape dynamics provide quantitative estimates of landscape structure and allow for the testing of alternative scenarios. We used...

Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China.

PubMed

Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

2015-11-09

Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution-severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems.

Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China

PubMed Central

Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

2015-01-01

Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution—severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems. PMID:26569270

Coastal livelihood transitions under globalization with implications for trans-ecosystem interactions.

PubMed

Kramer, Daniel B; Stevens, Kara; Williams, Nicholas E; Sistla, Seeta A; Roddy, Adam B; Urquhart, Gerald R

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic threats to natural systems can be exacerbated due to connectivity between marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems, complicating the already daunting task of governance across the land-sea interface. Globalization, including new access to markets, can change social-ecological, land-sea linkages via livelihood responses and adaptations by local people. As a first step in understanding these trans-ecosystem effects, we examined exit and entry decisions of artisanal fishers and smallholder farmers on the rapidly globalizing Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. We found that exit and entry decisions demonstrated clear temporal and spatial patterns and that these decisions differed by livelihood. In addition to household characteristics, livelihood exit and entry decisions were strongly affected by new access to regional and global markets. The natural resource implications of these livelihood decisions are potentially profound as they provide novel linkages and spatially-explicit feedbacks between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Our findings support the need for more scientific inquiry in understanding trans-ecosystem tradeoffs due to linked-livelihood transitions as well as the need for a trans-ecosystem approach to natural resource management and development policy in rapidly changing coastal regions.

Ecosystem accounts define explicit and spatial trade-offs for managing natural resources.

PubMed

Keith, Heather; Vardon, Michael; Stein, John A; Stein, Janet L; Lindenmayer, David

2017-11-01

Decisions about natural resource management are frequently complex and vexed, often leading to public policy compromises. Discord between environmental and economic metrics creates problems in assessing trade-offs between different current or potential resource uses. Ecosystem accounts, which quantify ecosystems and their benefits for human well-being consistent with national economic accounts, provide exciting opportunities to contribute significantly to the policy process. We advanced the application of ecosystem accounts in a regional case study by explicitly and spatially linking impacts of human and natural activities on ecosystem assets and services to their associated industries. This demonstrated contributions of ecosystems beyond the traditional national accounts. Our results revealed that native forests would provide greater benefits from their ecosystem services of carbon sequestration, water yield, habitat provisioning and recreational amenity if harvesting for timber production ceased, thus allowing forests to continue growing to older ages.

Land-use change, deforestation, and peasant farm systems: A case study of Mexico's Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vance, Colin James

This dissertation develops spatially explicit econometric models by linking Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery with household survey data to test behavioral propositions of semi-subsistence farmers in the Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region (SYPR) of Mexico. Covering 22,000 km2, this agricultural frontier contains one of the largest and oldest expanses of tropical forests in the Americas outside of Amazonia. Over the past 30 years, the SYPR has undergone significant land-use change largely owing to the construction of a highway through the region's center in 1967. These landscape dynamics are modeled by exploiting a spatial database linking a time series of TM imagery with socio-economic and geo-referenced land-use data collected from a random sample of 188 farm households. The dissertation moves beyond the existing literature on deforestation in three principal respects. Theoretically, the study develops a non-separable model of land-use that relaxes the assumption of profit maximization almost exclusively invoked in studies of the deforestation issue. The model is derived from a utility-maximizing framework that explicitly incorporates the interdependency of the household's production and consumption choices as these affect the allocation of resources. Methodologically, the study assembles a spatial database that couples satellite imagery with household-level socio-economic data. The field survey protocol recorded geo-referenced land-use data through the use of a geographic positioning system and the creation of sketch maps detailing the location of different uses observed within individual plots. Empirically, the study estimates spatially explicit econometric models of land-use change using switching regressions and duration analysis. A distinguishing feature of these models is that they link the dependent and independent variables at the level of the decision unit, the land manager, thereby capturing spatial and temporal heterogeneity that is otherwise obscured in studies using data aggregated to higher scales of analysis. The empirical findings suggest the potential of various policy initiatives to impede or otherwise alter the pattern of land-cover conversions. In this regard, the study reveals that consideration of missing or thin markets is critical to understanding how farmers in the SYPR reach subsistence and commercial cropping decisions.

Middle Mississippi River decision support system: user's manual

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rohweder, Jason J.; Zigler, Steven J.; Fox, Timothy J.; Hulse, Steven N.

2005-01-01

This user's manual describes the Middle Mississippi River Decision Support System (MMRDSS) and gives detailed examples on its use. The MMRDSS provides a framework to assist decision makers regarding natural resource issues in the Middle Mississippi River floodplain. The MMRDSS is designed to provide users with a spatially explicit tool for tasks, such as inventorying existing knowledge, developing models to investigate the potential effects of management decisions, generating hypotheses to advance scientific understanding, and developing scientifically defensible studies and monitoring. The MMRDSS also includes advanced tools to assist users in evaluating differences in complexity, connectivity, and structure of aquatic habitats among river reaches. The Environmental Systems Research Institute ArcView 3.x platform was used to create and package the data and tools of the MMRDSS.

Integrating spatially explicit representations of landscape perceptions into land change research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorning, Monica; Van Berkel, Derek B.; Semmens, Darius J.

2017-01-01

Purpose of ReviewHuman perceptions of the landscape can influence land-use and land-management decisions. Recognizing the diversity of landscape perceptions across space and time is essential to understanding land change processes and emergent landscape patterns. We summarize the role of landscape perceptions in the land change process, demonstrate advances in quantifying and mapping landscape perceptions, and describe how these spatially explicit techniques have and may benefit land change research.Recent FindingsMapping landscape perceptions is becoming increasingly common, particularly in research focused on quantifying ecosystem services provision. Spatial representations of landscape perceptions, often measured in terms of landscape values and functions, provide an avenue for matching social and environmental data in land change studies. Integrating these data can provide new insights into land change processes, contribute to landscape planning strategies, and guide the design and implementation of land change models.SummaryChallenges remain in creating spatial representations of human perceptions. Maps must be accompanied by descriptions of whose perceptions are being represented and the validity and uncertainty of those representations across space. With these considerations, rapid advancements in mapping landscape perceptions hold great promise for improving representation of human dimensions in landscape ecology and land change research.

Decision or no decision: how do patient-physician interactions end and what matters?

PubMed

Tai-Seale, Ming; Bramson, Rachel; Bao, Xiaoming

2007-03-01

A clearly stated clinical decision can induce a cognitive closure in patients and is an important investment in the end of patient-physician communications. Little is known about how often explicit decisions are made in primary care visits. To use an innovative videotape analysis approach to assess physicians' propensity to state decisions explicitly, and to examine the factors influencing decision patterns. We coded topics discussed in 395 videotapes of primary care visits, noting the number of instances and the length of discussions on each topic, and how discussions ended. A regression analysis tested the relationship between explicit decisions and visit factors such as the nature of topics under discussion, instances of discussion, the amount of time the patient spoke, and competing demands from other topics. About 77% of topics ended with explicit decisions. Patients spoke for an average of 58 seconds total per topic. Patients spoke more during topics that ended with an explicit decision, (67 seconds), compared with 36 seconds otherwise. The number of instances of a topic was associated with higher odds of having an explicit decision (OR = 1.73, p < 0.01). Increases in the number of topics discussed in visits (OR = 0.95, p < .05), and topics on lifestyle and habits (OR = 0.60, p < .01) were associated with lower odds of explicit decisions. Although discussions often ended with explicit decisions, there were variations related to the content and dynamics of interactions. We recommend strengthening patients' voice and developing clinical tools, e.g., an "exit prescription," to improving decision making.

Toward accurate and precise estimates of lion density.

PubMed

Elliot, Nicholas B; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M

2017-08-01

Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to understanding ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation because wildlife authorities rely on estimates to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide-ranging carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo). Although abundance indices for lions may produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate density and inform management and policy. We used sighting data from a 3-month survey and adapted a Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) model to estimate spatial lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. Our unstructured spatial capture-recapture sampling design incorporated search effort to explicitly estimate detection probability and density on a fine spatial scale, making our approach robust in the context of varying detection probabilities. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 17.08 (posterior SD 1.310) lions >1 year old/100 km 2 , and the sex ratio was estimated at 2.2 females to 1 male. Our modeling framework and narrow posterior SD demonstrate that SECR methods can produce statistically rigorous and precise estimates of population parameters, and we argue that they should be favored over less reliable abundance indices. Furthermore, our approach is flexible enough to incorporate different data types, which enables robust population estimates over relatively short survey periods in a variety of systems. Trend analyses are essential to guide conservation decisions but are frequently based on surveys of differing reliability. We therefore call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers in key populations to improve management and policy decisions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

PubMed Central

Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

2017-01-01

International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions. PMID:28429710

Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

2017-04-01

International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions.

Integrating biological and social values when prioritizing places for biodiversity conservation.

PubMed

Whitehead, Amy L; Kujala, Heini; Ives, Christopher D; Gordon, Ascelin; Lentini, Pia E; Wintle, Brendan A; Nicholson, Emily; Raymond, Christopher M

2014-08-01

The consideration of information on social values in conjunction with biological data is critical for achieving both socially acceptable and scientifically defensible conservation planning outcomes. However, the influence of social values on spatial conservation priorities has received limited attention and is poorly understood. We present an approach that incorporates quantitative data on social values for conservation and social preferences for development into spatial conservation planning. We undertook a public participation GIS survey to spatially represent social values and development preferences and used species distribution models for 7 threatened fauna species to represent biological values. These spatially explicit data were simultaneously included in the conservation planning software Zonation to examine how conservation priorities changed with the inclusion of social data. Integrating spatially explicit information about social values and development preferences with biological data produced prioritizations that differed spatially from the solution based on only biological data. However, the integrated solutions protected a similar proportion of the species' distributions, indicating that Zonation effectively combined the biological and social data to produce socially feasible conservation solutions of approximately equivalent biological value. We were able to identify areas of the landscape where synergies and conflicts between different value sets are likely to occur. Identification of these synergies and conflicts will allow decision makers to target communication strategies to specific areas and ensure effective community engagement and positive conservation outcomes. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

A decision support tool for setting population objectives for priority landbirds in the Central Hardwoods and West Gulf Coastal Plain/Quachitas Bird Conservation Regions

Treesearch

D. Todd Jones-Farrand; John M. Tirpak; Frank R. Thompson; Daniel J. Twedt; Charles K. Baxter; Jane A. Fitzgerald; William B. Uihlein

2009-01-01

Setting and achieving population objectives for priority landbirds must be informed by, 1) the quantity, quality, and spatial confi guration of available habitat, 2) an explicit linkage between habitat condition and population response, and 3) expected future habitat conditions. Based on this philosophy, the Central Hardwoods and Lower Mississippi Valley Joint Ventures...

Coastal livelihood transitions under globalization with implications for trans-ecosystem interactions

PubMed Central

Stevens, Kara; Williams, Nicholas E.; Sistla, Seeta A.; Roddy, Adam B.; Urquhart, Gerald R.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic threats to natural systems can be exacerbated due to connectivity between marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems, complicating the already daunting task of governance across the land-sea interface. Globalization, including new access to markets, can change social-ecological, land-sea linkages via livelihood responses and adaptations by local people. As a first step in understanding these trans-ecosystem effects, we examined exit and entry decisions of artisanal fishers and smallholder farmers on the rapidly globalizing Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. We found that exit and entry decisions demonstrated clear temporal and spatial patterns and that these decisions differed by livelihood. In addition to household characteristics, livelihood exit and entry decisions were strongly affected by new access to regional and global markets. The natural resource implications of these livelihood decisions are potentially profound as they provide novel linkages and spatially-explicit feedbacks between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Our findings support the need for more scientific inquiry in understanding trans-ecosystem tradeoffs due to linked-livelihood transitions as well as the need for a trans-ecosystem approach to natural resource management and development policy in rapidly changing coastal regions. PMID:29077748

Spatial-explicit modeling of social vulnerability to malaria in East Africa

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Despite efforts in eradication and control, malaria remains a global challenge, particularly affecting vulnerable groups. Despite the recession in malaria cases, previously malaria free areas are increasingly confronted with epidemics as a result of changing environmental and socioeconomic conditions. Next to modeling transmission intensities and probabilities, integrated spatial methods targeting the complex interplay of factors that contribute to social vulnerability are required to effectively reduce malaria burden. We propose an integrative method for mapping relative levels of social vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner to support the identification of intervention measures. Methods Based on a literature review, a holistic risk and vulnerability framework has been developed to guide the assessment of social vulnerability to water-related vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in the context of changing environmental and societal conditions. Building on the framework, this paper applies spatially explicit modeling for delineating homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria in eastern Africa, while taking into account expert knowledge for weighting the single vulnerability indicators. To assess the influence of the selected indicators on the final index a local sensitivity analysis is carried out. Results Results indicate that high levels of malaria vulnerability are concentrated in the highlands, where immunity within the population is currently low. Additionally, regions with a lack of access to education and health services aggravate vulnerability. Lower values can be found in regions with relatively low poverty, low population pressure, low conflict density and reduced contributions from the biological susceptibility domain. Overall, the factors characterizing vulnerability vary spatially in the region. The vulnerability index reveals a high level of robustness in regard to the final choice of input datasets, with the exception of the immunity indicator which has a marked impact on the composite vulnerability index. Conclusions We introduce a conceptual framework for modeling risk and vulnerability to VBDs. Drawing on the framework we modeled social vulnerability to malaria in the context of global change using a spatially explicit approach. The results provide decision makers with place-specific options for targeting interventions that aim at reducing the burden of the disease amongst the different vulnerable population groups. PMID:25127688

An application of Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) to three national forests in Colorado and Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherrouse, Benson C.; Semmens, Darius J.; Clement, Jessica M.

2014-01-01

Despite widespread recognition that social-value information is needed to inform stakeholders and decision makers regarding trade-offs in environmental management, it too often remains absent from ecosystem service assessments. Although quantitative indicators of social values need to be explicitly accounted for in the decision-making process, they need not be monetary. Ongoing efforts to map such values demonstrate how they can also be made spatially explicit and relatable to underlying ecological information. We originally developed Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) as a tool to assess, map, and quantify nonmarket values perceived by various groups of ecosystem stakeholders. With SolVES 2.0 we have extended the functionality by integrating SolVES with Maxent maximum entropy modeling software to generate more complete social-value maps from available value and preference survey data and to produce more robust models describing the relationship between social values and ecosystems. The current study has two objectives: (1) evaluate how effectively the value index, a quantitative, nonmonetary social-value indicator calculated by SolVES, reproduces results from more common statistical methods of social-survey data analysis and (2) examine how the spatial results produced by SolVES provide additional information that could be used by managers and stakeholders to better understand more complex relationships among stakeholder values, attitudes, and preferences. To achieve these objectives, we applied SolVES to value and preference survey data collected for three national forests, the Pike and San Isabel in Colorado and the Bridger–Teton and the Shoshone in Wyoming. Value index results were generally consistent with results found through more common statistical analyses of the survey data such as frequency, discriminant function, and correlation analyses. In addition, spatial analysis of the social-value maps produced by SolVES provided information that was useful for explaining relationships between stakeholder values and forest uses. Our results suggest that SolVES can effectively reproduce information derived from traditional statistical analyses while adding spatially explicit, social-value information that can contribute to integrated resource assessment, planning, and management of forests and other ecosystems.

Building the Foundation for International Conservation Planning for Breeding Ducks across the U.S. and Canadian Border

PubMed Central

Doherty, Kevin E.; Evans, Jeffrey S.; Walker, Johann; Devries, James H.; Howerter, David W.

2015-01-01

We used publically available data on duck breeding distribution and recently compiled geospatial data on upland habitat and environmental conditions to develop a spatially explicit model of breeding duck populations across the entire Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). Our spatial population models were able to identify key areas for duck conservation across the PPR and predict between 62.1 – 79.1% (68.4% avg.) of the variation in duck counts by year from 2002 – 2010. The median difference in observed vs. predicted duck counts at a transect segment level was 4.6 ducks. Our models are the first seamless spatially explicit models of waterfowl abundance across the entire PPR and represent an initial step toward joint conservation planning between Prairie Pothole and Prairie Habitat Joint Ventures. Our work demonstrates that when spatial and temporal variation for highly mobile birds is incorporated into conservation planning it will likely increase the habitat area required to support defined population goals. A major goal of the current North American Waterfowl Management Plan and subsequent action plan is the linking of harvest and habitat management. We contend incorporation of spatial aspects will increase the likelihood of coherent joint harvest and habitat management decisions. Our results show at a minimum, it is possible to produce spatially explicit waterfowl abundance models that when summed across survey strata will produce similar strata level population estimates as the design-based Waterfowl Breeding Pair and Habitat Survey (r2 = 0.977). This is important because these design-based population estimates are currently used to set duck harvest regulations and to set duck population and habitat goals for the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. We hope this effort generates discussion on the important linkages between spatial and temporal variation in population size, and distribution relative to habitat quantity and quality when linking habitat and population goals across this important region. PMID:25714747

High resolution tree-ring based spatial reconstructions of snow avalanche activity in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pederson, Gregory T.; Reardon, Blase; Caruso, C.J.; Fagre, Daniel B.

2006-01-01

Effective design of avalanche hazard mitigation measures requires long-term records of natural avalanche frequency and extent. Such records are also vital for determining whether natural avalanche frequency and extent vary over time due to climatic or biophysical changes. Where historic records are lacking, an accepted substitute is a chronology developed from tree-ring responses to avalanche-induced damage. This study evaluates a method for using tree-ring chronologies to provide spatially explicit differentiations of avalanche frequency and temporally explicit records of avalanche extent that are often lacking. The study area - part of John F. Stevens Canyon on the southern border of Glacier National Park – is within a heavily used railroad and highway corridor with two dozen active avalanche paths. Using a spatially geo-referenced network of avalanche-damaged trees (n=109) from a single path, we reconstructed a 96-year tree-ring based chronology of avalanche extent and frequency. Comparison of the chronology with historic records revealed that trees recorded all known events as well as the same number of previously unidentified events. Kriging methods provided spatially explicit estimates of avalanche return periods. Estimated return periods for the entire avalanche path averaged 3.2 years. Within this path, return intervals ranged from ~2.3 yrs in the lower track, to ~9-11 yrs and ~12 to >25 yrs in the runout zone, where the railroad and highway are located. For avalanche professionals, engineers, and transportation managers this technique proves a powerful tool in landscape risk assessment and decision making.

Informing Species Conservation at Multiple Scales Using Data Collected for Marine Mammal Stock Assessments

PubMed Central

Grech, Alana; Sheppard, James; Marsh, Helene

2011-01-01

Background Conservation planning and the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) requires spatially explicit information on the distribution of ecological features. Most species of marine mammals range over large areas and across multiple planning regions. The spatial distributions of marine mammals are difficult to predict using habitat modelling at ecological scales because of insufficient understanding of their habitat needs, however, relevant information may be available from surveys conducted to inform mandatory stock assessments. Methodology and Results We use a 20-year time series of systematic aerial surveys of dugong (Dugong dugong) abundance to create spatially-explicit models of dugong distribution and relative density at the scale of the coastal waters of northeast Australia (∼136,000 km2). We interpolated the corrected data at the scale of 2 km * 2 km planning units using geostatistics. Planning units were classified as low, medium, high and very high dugong density on the basis of the relative density of dugongs estimated from the models and a frequency analysis. Torres Strait was identified as the most significant dugong habitat in northeast Australia and the most globally significant habitat known for any member of the Order Sirenia. The models are used by local, State and Federal agencies to inform management decisions related to the Indigenous harvest of dugongs, gill-net fisheries and Australia's National Representative System of Marine Protected Areas. Conclusion/Significance In this paper we demonstrate that spatially-explicit population models add value to data collected for stock assessments, provide a robust alternative to predictive habitat distribution models, and inform species conservation at multiple scales. PMID:21464933

A formalized approach to making effective natural resource management decisions for Alaska National Parks

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacCluskie, Margaret C.; Romito, Angela; Peterson, James T.; Lawler, James P.

2015-01-01

A fundamental goal of the National Park Service (NPS) is the long-term protection and management of resources in the National Park System. Reaching this goal requires multiple approaches, including the conservation of essential habitats and the identification and elimination of potential threats to biota and habitats. To accomplish these goals, the NPS has implemented the Alaska Region Vital Signs Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) Program to monitor key biological, chemical, and physical components of ecosystems at more than 270 national parks. The Alaska Region has four networks—Arctic, Central, Southeast, and Southwest. By monitoring vital signs over large spatial and temporal scales, park managers are provided with information on the status and trajectory of park resources as well as a greater understanding and insight into the ecosystem dynamics. While detecting and quantifying change is important to conservation efforts, to be useful for formulating remedial actions, monitoring data must explicitly relate to management objectives and be collected in such a manner as to resolve key uncertainties about the dynamics of the system (Nichols and Williams 2006). Formal decision making frameworks (versus more traditional processes described below) allow for the explicit integration of monitoring data into decision making processes to improve the understanding of system dynamics, thereby improving future decisions (Williams 2011).

Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation.

PubMed

Dezécache, Camille; Salles, Jean-Michel; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Hérault, Bruno

2017-09-01

Whilst high-resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision-making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account multiple drivers of deforestation in tropical forested areas, where the intensity of deforestation is explicitly predicted based on socio-economic variables. By coupling a model of deforestation location based on spatial environmental variables with several sub-models of deforestation intensity based on socio-economic variables, we were able to create a map of predicted deforestation over the period 2001-2014 in French Guiana. This map was compared to a reference map for accuracy assessment, not only at the pixel scale but also over cells ranging from 1 to approximately 600 sq. km. Highly significant relationships were explicitly established between deforestation intensity and several socio-economic variables: population growth, the amount of agricultural subsidies, gold and wood production. Such a precise characterization of socio-economic processes allows to avoid overestimation biases in high deforestation areas, suggesting a better integration of socio-economic processes in the models. Whilst considering deforestation as a purely geographical process contributes to the creation of conservative models unable to effectively assess changes in the socio-economic and political contexts influencing deforestation trends, this explicit characterization of the socio-economic dimension of deforestation is critical for the creation of deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Behavioral Model of Landscape Change in the Amazon Basin: The Colonist Case

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, R. A.; Drzyzga, S. A.; Li, Y. L.; Wi, J. G.; Caldas, M.; Arima, E.; Vergara, D.

2004-01-01

This paper presents the prototype of a predictive model capable of describing both magnitudes of deforestation and its spatial articulation into patterns of forest fragmentation. In a departure from other landscape models, it establishes an explicit behavioral foundation for algorithm development, predicated on notions of the peasant economy and on household production theory. It takes a 'bottom-up' approach, generating the process of land-cover change occurring at lot level together with the geography of a transportation system to describe regional landscape change. In other words, it translates the decentralized decisions of individual households into a collective, spatial impact. In so doing, the model unites the richness of survey research on farm households with the analytical rigor of spatial analysis enabled by geographic information systems (GIs). The paper describes earlier efforts at spatial modeling, provides a critique of the so-called spatially explicit model, and elaborates a behavioral foundation by considering farm practices of colonists in the Amazon basin. It then uses, insight from the behavioral statement to motivate a GIs-based model architecture. The model is implemented for a long-standing colonization frontier in the eastern sector of the basin, along the Trans-Amazon Highway in the State of Para, Brazil. Results are subjected to both sensitivity analysis and error assessment, and suggestions are made about how the model could be improved.

A spatially explicit decision support model for restoration of forest bird habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Twedt, D.J.; Uihlein, W.B.; Elliott, A.B.

2006-01-01

The historical area of bottomland hardwood forest in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley has been reduced by >75%. Agricultural production was the primary motivator for deforestation; hence, clearing deliberately targeted higher and drier sites. Remaining forests are highly fragmented and hydrologically altered, with larger forest fragments subject to greater inundation, which has negatively affected many forest bird populations. We developed a spatially explicit decision support model, based on a Partners in Flight plan for forest bird conservation, that prioritizes forest restoration to reduce forest fragmentation and increase the area of forest core (interior forest >1 km from 'hostile' edge). Our primary objective was to increase the number of forest patches that harbor >2000 ha of forest core, but we also sought to increase the number and area of forest cores >5000 ha. Concurrently, we targeted restoration within local (320 km2) landscapes to achieve >60% forest cover. Finally, we emphasized restoration of higher-elevation bottomland hardwood forests in areas where restoration would not increase forest fragmentation. Reforestation of 10% of restorable land in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (approximately 880,000 ha) targeted at priorities established by this decision support model resulted in approximately 824,000 ha of new forest core. This is more than 32 times the amount of core forest added through reforestation of randomly located fields (approximately 25,000 ha). The total area of forest core (1.6 million ha) that resulted from targeted restoration exceeded habitat objectives identified in the Partners in Flight Bird Conservation Plan and approached the area of forest core present in the 1950s.

Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.

2014-11-01

Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

Territory surveillance and prey management: Wolves keep track of space and time.

PubMed

Schlägel, Ulrike E; Merrill, Evelyn H; Lewis, Mark A

2017-10-01

Identifying behavioral mechanisms that underlie observed movement patterns is difficult when animals employ sophisticated cognitive-based strategies. Such strategies may arise when timing of return visits is important, for instance to allow for resource renewal or territorial patrolling. We fitted spatially explicit random-walk models to GPS movement data of six wolves ( Canis lupus ; Linnaeus, 1758) from Alberta, Canada to investigate the importance of the following: (1) territorial surveillance likely related to renewal of scent marks along territorial edges, to reduce intraspecific risk among packs, and (2) delay in return to recently hunted areas, which may be related to anti-predator responses of prey under varying prey densities. The movement models incorporated the spatiotemporal variable "time since last visit," which acts as a wolf's memory index of its travel history and is integrated into the movement decision along with its position in relation to territory boundaries and information on local prey densities. We used a model selection framework to test hypotheses about the combined importance of these variables in wolf movement strategies. Time-dependent movement for territory surveillance was supported by all wolf movement tracks. Wolves generally avoided territory edges, but this avoidance was reduced as time since last visit increased. Time-dependent prey management was weak except in one wolf. This wolf selected locations with longer time since last visit and lower prey density, which led to a longer delay in revisiting high prey density sites. Our study shows that we can use spatially explicit random walks to identify behavioral strategies that merge environmental information and explicit spatiotemporal information on past movements (i.e., "when" and "where") to make movement decisions. The approach allows us to better understand cognition-based movement in relation to dynamic environments and resources.

Bringing ecosystem services into economic decision-making: land use in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Bateman, Ian J; Harwood, Amii R; Mace, Georgina M; Watson, Robert T; Abson, David J; Andrews, Barnaby; Binner, Amy; Crowe, Andrew; Day, Brett H; Dugdale, Steve; Fezzi, Carlo; Foden, Jo; Hadley, David; Haines-Young, Roy; Hulme, Mark; Kontoleon, Andreas; Lovett, Andrew A; Munday, Paul; Pascual, Unai; Paterson, James; Perino, Grischa; Sen, Antara; Siriwardena, Gavin; van Soest, Daan; Termansen, Mette

2013-07-05

Landscapes generate a wide range of valuable ecosystem services, yet land-use decisions often ignore the value of these services. Using the example of the United Kingdom, we show the significance of land-use change not only for agricultural production but also for emissions and sequestration of greenhouse gases, open-access recreational visits, urban green space, and wild-species diversity. We use spatially explicit models in conjunction with valuation methods to estimate comparable economic values for these services, taking account of climate change impacts. We show that, although decisions that focus solely on agriculture reduce overall ecosystem service values, highly significant value increases can be obtained from targeted planning by incorporating all potential services and their values and that this approach also conserves wild-species diversity.

Parental Explicit Heuristics in Decision-making for Children With Life-threatening Illnesses

PubMed Central

Renjilian, Chris B.; Womer, James W.; Carroll, Karen W.; Kang, Tammy I.

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To identify and illustrate common explicit heuristics (decision-making aids or shortcuts expressed verbally as terse rules of thumb, aphorisms, maxims, or mantras and intended to convey a compelling truth or guiding principle) used by parents of children with life-threatening illnesses when confronting and making medical decisions. METHODS: Prospective cross-sectional observational study of 69 parents of 46 children who participated in the Decision-making in Pediatric Palliative Care Study between 2006 and 2008 at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. Parents were guided individually through a semistructured in-depth interview about their experiences and thoughts regarding making medical decisions on behalf of their ill children, and the transcribed interviews were qualitatively analyzed. RESULTS: All parents in our study employed explicit heuristics in interviews about decision-making for their children, with the number of identified explicit heuristics used by an individual parent ranging from tens to hundreds. The heuristics served 5 general functions: (1) to depict or facilitate understanding of a complex situation; (2) to clarify, organize, and focus pertinent information and values; (3) to serve as a decision-making compass; (4) to communicate with others about a complex topic; and (5) to justify a choice. CONCLUSIONS: Explicit heuristics played an important role in decision-making and communication about decision-making in our population of parents. Recognizing explicit heuristics in parent interactions and understanding their content and functions can aid clinicians in their efforts to partner with parents in the decision-making process. PMID:23319524

Parental explicit heuristics in decision-making for children with life-threatening illnesses.

PubMed

Renjilian, Chris B; Womer, James W; Carroll, Karen W; Kang, Tammy I; Feudtner, Chris

2013-02-01

To identify and illustrate common explicit heuristics (decision-making aids or shortcuts expressed verbally as terse rules of thumb, aphorisms, maxims, or mantras and intended to convey a compelling truth or guiding principle) used by parents of children with life-threatening illnesses when confronting and making medical decisions. Prospective cross-sectional observational study of 69 parents of 46 children who participated in the Decision-making in Pediatric Palliative Care Study between 2006 and 2008 at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. Parents were guided individually through a semistructured in-depth interview about their experiences and thoughts regarding making medical decisions on behalf of their ill children, and the transcribed interviews were qualitatively analyzed. All parents in our study employed explicit heuristics in interviews about decision-making for their children, with the number of identified explicit heuristics used by an individual parent ranging from tens to hundreds. The heuristics served 5 general functions: (1) to depict or facilitate understanding of a complex situation; (2) to clarify, organize, and focus pertinent information and values; (3) to serve as a decision-making compass; (4) to communicate with others about a complex topic; and (5) to justify a choice. Explicit heuristics played an important role in decision-making and communication about decision-making in our population of parents. Recognizing explicit heuristics in parent interactions and understanding their content and functions can aid clinicians in their efforts to partner with parents in the decision-making process.

Need for speed: An optimized gridding approach for spatially explicit disease simulations.

PubMed

Sellman, Stefan; Tsao, Kimberly; Tildesley, Michael J; Brommesson, Peter; Webb, Colleen T; Wennergren, Uno; Keeling, Matt J; Lindström, Tom

2018-04-01

Numerical models for simulating outbreaks of infectious diseases are powerful tools for informing surveillance and control strategy decisions. However, large-scale spatially explicit models can be limited by the amount of computational resources they require, which poses a problem when multiple scenarios need to be explored to provide policy recommendations. We introduce an easily implemented method that can reduce computation time in a standard Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model without introducing any further approximations or truncations. It is based on a hierarchical infection process that operates on entire groups of spatially related nodes (cells in a grid) in order to efficiently filter out large volumes of susceptible nodes that would otherwise have required expensive calculations. After the filtering of the cells, only a subset of the nodes that were originally at risk are then evaluated for actual infection. The increase in efficiency is sensitive to the exact configuration of the grid, and we describe a simple method to find an estimate of the optimal configuration of a given landscape as well as a method to partition the landscape into a grid configuration. To investigate its efficiency, we compare the introduced methods to other algorithms and evaluate computation time, focusing on simulated outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) on the farm population of the USA, the UK and Sweden, as well as on three randomly generated populations with varying degree of clustering. The introduced method provided up to 500 times faster calculations than pairwise computation, and consistently performed as well or better than other available methods. This enables large scale, spatially explicit simulations such as for the entire continental USA without sacrificing realism or predictive power.

Need for speed: An optimized gridding approach for spatially explicit disease simulations

PubMed Central

Tildesley, Michael J.; Brommesson, Peter; Webb, Colleen T.; Wennergren, Uno; Lindström, Tom

2018-01-01

Numerical models for simulating outbreaks of infectious diseases are powerful tools for informing surveillance and control strategy decisions. However, large-scale spatially explicit models can be limited by the amount of computational resources they require, which poses a problem when multiple scenarios need to be explored to provide policy recommendations. We introduce an easily implemented method that can reduce computation time in a standard Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model without introducing any further approximations or truncations. It is based on a hierarchical infection process that operates on entire groups of spatially related nodes (cells in a grid) in order to efficiently filter out large volumes of susceptible nodes that would otherwise have required expensive calculations. After the filtering of the cells, only a subset of the nodes that were originally at risk are then evaluated for actual infection. The increase in efficiency is sensitive to the exact configuration of the grid, and we describe a simple method to find an estimate of the optimal configuration of a given landscape as well as a method to partition the landscape into a grid configuration. To investigate its efficiency, we compare the introduced methods to other algorithms and evaluate computation time, focusing on simulated outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) on the farm population of the USA, the UK and Sweden, as well as on three randomly generated populations with varying degree of clustering. The introduced method provided up to 500 times faster calculations than pairwise computation, and consistently performed as well or better than other available methods. This enables large scale, spatially explicit simulations such as for the entire continental USA without sacrificing realism or predictive power. PMID:29624574

SEARCH: Spatially Explicit Animal Response to Composition of Habitat.

PubMed

Pauli, Benjamin P; McCann, Nicholas P; Zollner, Patrick A; Cummings, Robert; Gilbert, Jonathan H; Gustafson, Eric J

2013-01-01

Complex decisions dramatically affect animal dispersal and space use. Dispersing individuals respond to a combination of fine-scale environmental stimuli and internal attributes. Individual-based modeling offers a valuable approach for the investigation of such interactions because it combines the heterogeneity of animal behaviors with spatial detail. Most individual-based models (IBMs), however, vastly oversimplify animal behavior and such behavioral minimalism diminishes the value of these models. We present program SEARCH (Spatially Explicit Animal Response to Composition of Habitat), a spatially explicit, individual-based, population model of animal dispersal through realistic landscapes. SEARCH uses values in Geographic Information System (GIS) maps to apply rules that animals follow during dispersal, thus allowing virtual animals to respond to fine-scale features of the landscape and maintain a detailed memory of areas sensed during movement. SEARCH also incorporates temporally dynamic landscapes so that the environment to which virtual animals respond can change during the course of a simulation. Animals in SEARCH are behaviorally dynamic and able to respond to stimuli based upon their individual experiences. Therefore, SEARCH is able to model behavioral traits of dispersing animals at fine scales and with many dynamic aspects. Such added complexity allows investigation of unique ecological questions. To illustrate SEARCH's capabilities, we simulated case studies using three mammals. We examined the impact of seasonally variable food resources on the weight distribution of dispersing raccoons (Procyon lotor), the effect of temporally dynamic mortality pressure in combination with various levels of behavioral responsiveness in eastern chipmunks (Tamias striatus), and the impact of behavioral plasticity and home range selection on disperser mortality and weight change in virtual American martens (Martes americana). These simulations highlight the relevance of SEARCH for a variety of applications and illustrate benefits it can provide for conservation planning.

CDPOP: A spatially explicit cost distance population genetics program

Treesearch

Erin L. Landguth; S. A. Cushman

2010-01-01

Spatially explicit simulation of gene flow in complex landscapes is essential to explain observed population responses and provide a foundation for landscape genetics. To address this need, we wrote a spatially explicit, individual-based population genetics model (CDPOP). The model implements individual-based population modelling with Mendelian inheritance and k-allele...

Program SPACECAP: software for estimating animal density using spatially explicit capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hines, James E.; Singh, Pallavi; Jathanna, Devcharan; Kumar, N. Samba; Karanth, K. Ullas

2012-01-01

1. The advent of spatially explicit capture-recapture models is changing the way ecologists analyse capture-recapture data. However, the advantages offered by these new models are not fully exploited because they can be difficult to implement. 2. To address this need, we developed a user-friendly software package, created within the R programming environment, called SPACECAP. This package implements Bayesian spatially explicit hierarchical models to analyse spatial capture-recapture data. 3. Given that a large number of field biologists prefer software with graphical user interfaces for analysing their data, SPACECAP is particularly useful as a tool to increase the adoption of Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture methods in practice.

A generalizable energetics-based model of avian migration to facilitate continental-scale waterbird conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lonsdorf, Eric V.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Jacobi, Sarah; Coppen, Jorge; Davis, Amélie Y.; Fox, Timothy J.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Johnson, Rex; Jones, Tim; Kenow, Kevin P.; Lyons, James E.; Luke, Kirsten E.; Still, Shannon; Tavernia, Brian G.

2016-01-01

Conserving migratory birds is made especially difficult because of movement among spatially disparate locations across the annual cycle. In light of challenges presented by the scale and ecology of migratory birds, successful conservation requires integrating objectives, management, and monitoring across scales, from local management units to ecoregional and flyway administrative boundaries. We present an integrated approach using a spatially explicit energetic-based mechanistic bird migration model useful to conservation decision-making across disparate scales and locations. This model moves a mallard-like bird (Anas platyrhynchos), through spring and fall migration as a function of caloric gains and losses across a continental scale energy landscape. We predicted with this model that fall migration, where birds moved from breeding to wintering habitat, took a mean of 27.5 days of flight with a mean seasonal survivorship of 90.5% (95% CI = 89.2%, 91.9%) whereas spring migration took a mean of 23.5 days of flight with mean seasonal survivorship of 93.6% (95% CI = 92.5%, 94.7%). Sensitivity analyses suggested that survival during migration was sensitive to flight speed, flight cost, the amount of energy the animal could carry and the spatial pattern of energy availability, but generally insensitive to total energy availability per se. Nevertheless, continental patterns in the bird-use days occurred principally in relation to wetland cover and agricultural habitat in the fall. Bird-use days were highest in both spring and fall in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley and along the coast and near-shore environments of South Carolina. Spatial sensitivity analyses suggested that locations nearer to migratory endpoints were less important to survivorship; for instance, removing energy from a 1,036 km2 stopover site at a time from the Atlantic Flyway suggested coastal areas between New Jersey and North Carolina, including Chesapeake Bay and the North Carolina piedmont, are essential locations for efficient migration and increasing survivorship during spring migration but not locations in Ontario and Massachusetts. This sort of spatially explicit information may allow decision-makers to prioritize their conservation actions toward locations most influential to migratory success. Thus, this mechanistic model of avian migration provides a decision-analytic medium integrating the potential consequences of local actions to flyway-scale phenomena.

Decision-making deficits in pathological gambling: the role of executive functions, explicit knowledge and impulsivity in relation to decisions made under ambiguity and risk.

PubMed

Ochoa, Cristian; Alvarez-Moya, Eva M; Penelo, Eva; Aymami, M Neus; Gómez-Peña, Mónica; Fernández-Aranda, Fernando; Granero, Roser; Vallejo-Ruiloba, Julio; Menchón, José Manuel; Lawrence, Natalia S; Jiménez-Murcia, Susana

2013-01-01

A variety of cognitive and emotional processes influence the decision-making deficits observed in pathological gambling (PG). This study investigated the role of immediate/delayed sensitivity to reward and punishment, executive functions, impulsivity and explicit knowledge in relation to decision-making performance on the original Iowa Gambling Task (IGT-ABCD) and a variant (IGT-EFGH). We assessed 131 consecutive patients with a diagnosis of PG by using executive functioning and decision-making tasks, self-report measures of impulsivity and explicit knowledge. The majority of pathological gamblers (PGs) showed deficits in decision-making, characterized mainly by myopia for the future. Decisions made under risk showed different predictors. Performance on the IGT-ABCD for decisions made under risk was predicted by medium and high levels of explicit knowledge of the task, as well as by scores on the Disorderliness subscale and the degree of Stroop interference. By contrast, IGT-EFGH results were only associated with self-report impulsivity measures. Decision making in PG involves distinct patterns of deficits, and the predictors differ depending on the reinforcement schedule. Decisions made under risk on the IGT-ABCD are associated with explicit knowledge, executive functions and impulsivity traits related to conscious awareness and control processes. On the IGT-EFGH, however, only impulsivity traits predict decision making. Copyright © American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

Two-dimensional habitat modeling in the Yellowstone/Upper Missouri River system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waddle, T. J.; Bovee, K.D.; Bowen, Z.H.

1997-01-01

This study is being conducted to provide the aquatic biology component of a decision support system being developed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. In an attempt to capture the habitat needs of Great Plains fish communities we are looking beyond previous habitat modeling methods. Traditional habitat modeling approaches have relied on one-dimensional hydraulic models and lumped compositional habitat metrics to describe aquatic habitat. A broader range of habitat descriptors is available when both composition and configuration of habitats is considered. Habitat metrics that consider both composition and configuration can be adapted from terrestrial biology. These metrics are most conveniently accessed with spatially explicit descriptors of the physical variables driving habitat composition. Two-dimensional hydrodynamic models have advanced to the point that they may provide the spatially explicit description of physical parameters needed to address this problem. This paper reports progress to date on applying two-dimensional hydraulic and habitat models on the Yellowstone and Missouri Rivers and uses examples from the Yellowstone River to illustrate the configurational metrics as a new tool for assessing riverine habitats.

Developing Spatially Explicit Habitat Models for Grassland Bird Conservation Planning in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota

Treesearch

Neal D. Niemuth; Michael E. Estey; Charles R. Loesch

2005-01-01

Conservation planning for birds is increasingly focused on landscapes. However, little spatially explicit information is available to guide landscape-level conservation planning for many species of birds. We used georeferenced 1995 Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data in conjunction with land-cover information to develop a spatially explicit habitat model predicting the...

Implicit and explicit processing in deep dyslexia: Semantic blocking as a test for failure of inhibition in the phonological output lexicon.

PubMed

Colangelo, Annette; Buchanan, Lori

2006-12-01

The failure of inhibition hypothesis posits a theoretical distinction between implicit and explicit access in deep dyslexia. Specifically, the effects of failure of inhibition are assumed only in conditions that have an explicit selection requirement in the context of production (i.e., aloud reading). In contrast, the failure of inhibition hypothesis proposes that implicit processing and explicit access to semantic information without production demands are intact in deep dyslexia. Evidence for intact implicit and explicit access requires that performance in deep dyslexia parallels that observed in neurologically intact participants on tasks based on implicit and explicit processes. In other words, deep dyslexics should produce normal effects in conditions with implicit task demands (i.e., lexical decision) and on tasks based on explicit access without production (i.e., forced choice semantic decisions) because failure of inhibition does not impact the availability of lexical information, only explicit retrieval in the context of production. This research examined the distinction between implicit and explicit processes in deep dyslexia using semantic blocking in lexical decision and forced choice semantic decisions as a test for the failure of inhibition hypothesis. The results of the semantic blocking paradigm support the distinction between implicit and explicit processing and provide evidence for failure of inhibition as an explanation for semantic errors in deep dyslexia.

A new spatial multi-criteria decision support tool for site selection for implementation of managed aquifer recharge.

PubMed

Rahman, M Azizur; Rusteberg, Bernd; Gogu, R C; Lobo Ferreira, J P; Sauter, Martin

2012-05-30

This study reports the development of a new spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (SMCDA) software tool for selecting suitable sites for Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) systems. The new SMCDA software tool functions based on the combination of existing multi-criteria evaluation methods with modern decision analysis techniques. More specifically, non-compensatory screening, criteria standardization and weighting, and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) have been combined with Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA). This SMCDA tool may be implemented with a wide range of decision maker's preferences. The tool's user-friendly interface helps guide the decision maker through the sequential steps for site selection, those steps namely being constraint mapping, criteria hierarchy, criteria standardization and weighting, and criteria overlay. The tool offers some predetermined default criteria and standard methods to increase the trade-off between ease-of-use and efficiency. Integrated into ArcGIS, the tool has the advantage of using GIS tools for spatial analysis, and herein data may be processed and displayed. The tool is non-site specific, adaptive, and comprehensive, and may be applied to any type of site-selection problem. For demonstrating the robustness of the new tool, a case study was planned and executed at Algarve Region, Portugal. The efficiency of the SMCDA tool in the decision making process for selecting suitable sites for MAR was also demonstrated. Specific aspects of the tool such as built-in default criteria, explicit decision steps, and flexibility in choosing different options were key features, which benefited the study. The new SMCDA tool can be augmented by groundwater flow and transport modeling so as to achieve a more comprehensive approach to the selection process for the best locations of the MAR infiltration basins, as well as the locations of recovery wells and areas of groundwater protection. The new spatial multicriteria analysis tool has already been implemented within the GIS based Gabardine decision support system as an innovative MAR planning tool. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of a Bayesian Belief Network-GIS framework as a practical tool to support marine planning.

PubMed

Stelzenmüller, V; Lee, J; Garnacho, E; Rogers, S I

2010-10-01

For the UK continental shelf we developed a Bayesian Belief Network-GIS framework to visualise relationships between cumulative human pressures, sensitive marine landscapes and landscape vulnerability, to assess the consequences of potential marine planning objectives, and to map uncertainty-related changes in management measures. Results revealed that the spatial assessment of footprints and intensities of human activities had more influence on landscape vulnerabilities than the type of landscape sensitivity measure used. We addressed questions regarding consequences of potential planning targets, and necessary management measures with spatially-explicit assessment of their consequences. We conclude that the BN-GIS framework is a practical tool allowing for the visualisation of relationships, the spatial assessment of uncertainty related to spatial management scenarios, the engagement of different stakeholder views, and enables a quick update of new spatial data and relationships. Ultimately, such BN-GIS based tools can support the decision-making process used in adaptive marine management. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freire, S.; Aubrecht, C.

2012-11-01

Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

InterSpread Plus: a spatial and stochastic simulation model of disease in animal populations.

PubMed

Stevenson, M A; Sanson, R L; Stern, M W; O'Leary, B D; Sujau, M; Moles-Benfell, N; Morris, R S

2013-04-01

We describe the spatially explicit, stochastic simulation model of disease spread, InterSpread Plus, in terms of its epidemiological framework, operation, and mode of use. The input data required by the model, the method for simulating contact and infection spread, and methods for simulating disease control measures are described. Data and parameters that are essential for disease simulation modelling using InterSpread Plus are distinguished from those that are non-essential, and it is suggested that a rational approach to simulating disease epidemics using this tool is to start with core data and parameters, adding additional layers of complexity if and when the specific requirements of the simulation exercise require it. We recommend that simulation models of disease are best developed as part of epidemic contingency planning so decision makers are familiar with model outputs and assumptions and are well-positioned to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses to make informed decisions in times of crisis. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improvement, Verification, and Refinement of Spatially-Explicit Exposure Models in Risk Assessment - FishRand Spatially-Explicit Bioaccumulation Model Demonstration

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-01

21  Figure 4. Data-based proportion of DDD , DDE and DDT in total DDx in fish and sediment by... DDD dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane DDE dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene DDT dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane DoD Department of Defense ERM... DDD ) at the other site. The spatially-explicit model consistently predicts tissue concentrations that closely match both the average and the

A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

2014-03-01

GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty-sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights.

A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis☆

PubMed Central

Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

2014-01-01

GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster–Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty–sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights. PMID:25843987

A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

2014-03-01

GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty-sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights.

Somatic Markers and Explicit Knowledge Are both Involved in Decision-Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guillaume, Sebastien; Jollant, Fabrice; Jaussent, Isabelle; Lawrence, Natalia; Malafosse, Alain; Courtet, Philippe

2009-01-01

In 1994, it was proposed that decision-making requires emotion-related signals, known as somatic markers. In contrast, some authors argued that conscious knowledge of contingencies is sufficient for advantageous decision-making. We aimed to investigate the respective roles of somatic markers and explicit knowledge in decision-making. Thirty…

A mediation model to explain decision making under conditions of risk among adolescents: the role of fluid intelligence and probabilistic reasoning.

PubMed

Donati, Maria Anna; Panno, Angelo; Chiesi, Francesca; Primi, Caterina

2014-01-01

This study tested the mediating role of probabilistic reasoning ability in the relationship between fluid intelligence and advantageous decision making among adolescents in explicit situations of risk--that is, in contexts in which information on the choice options (gains, losses, and probabilities) were explicitly presented at the beginning of the task. Participants were 282 adolescents attending high school (77% males, mean age = 17.3 years). We first measured fluid intelligence and probabilistic reasoning ability. Then, to measure decision making under explicit conditions of risk, participants performed the Game of Dice Task, in which they have to decide among different alternatives that are explicitly linked to a specific amount of gain or loss and have obvious winning probabilities that are stable over time. Analyses showed a significant positive indirect effect of fluid intelligence on advantageous decision making through probabilistic reasoning ability that acted as a mediator. Specifically, fluid intelligence may enhance ability to reason in probabilistic terms, which in turn increases the likelihood of advantageous choices when adolescents are confronted with an explicit decisional context. Findings show that in experimental paradigm settings, adolescents are able to make advantageous decisions using cognitive abilities when faced with decisions under explicit risky conditions. This study suggests that interventions designed to promote probabilistic reasoning, for example by incrementing the mathematical prerequisites necessary to reason in probabilistic terms, may have a positive effect on adolescents' decision-making abilities.

Cognitive load during route selection increases reliance on spatial heuristics.

PubMed

Brunyé, Tad T; Martis, Shaina B; Taylor, Holly A

2018-05-01

Planning routes from maps involves perceiving the symbolic environment, identifying alternate routes and applying explicit strategies and implicit heuristics to select an option. Two implicit heuristics have received considerable attention, the southern route preference and initial segment strategy. This study tested a prediction from decision-making theory that increasing cognitive load during route planning will increase reliance on these heuristics. In two experiments, participants planned routes while under conditions of minimal (0-back) or high (2-back) working memory load. In Experiment 1, we examined how memory load impacts the southern route heuristic. In Experiment 2, we examined how memory load impacts the initial segment heuristic. Results replicated earlier results demonstrating a southern route preference (Experiment 1) and initial segment strategy (Experiment 2) and further demonstrated that evidence for heuristic reliance is more likely under conditions of concurrent working memory load. Furthermore, the extent to which participants maintained efficient route selection latencies in the 2-back condition predicted the magnitude of this effect. Together, results demonstrate that working memory load increases the application of heuristics during spatial decision making, particularly when participants attempt to maintain quick decisions while managing concurrent task demands.

USING THE ECLPSS SOFTWARE ENVIRONMENT TO BUILD A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT COMPONENT-BASED MODEL OF OZONE EFFECTS ON FOREST ECOSYSTEMS. (R827958)

EPA Science Inventory

We have developed a modeling framework to support grid-based simulation of ecosystems at multiple spatial scales, the Ecological Component Library for Parallel Spatial Simulation (ECLPSS). ECLPSS helps ecologists to build robust spatially explicit simulations of ...

Willed action, free will, and the stochastic neurodynamics of decision-making

PubMed Central

Rolls, Edmund T.

2012-01-01

It is shown that the randomness of the firing times of neurons in decision-making attractor neuronal networks that is present before the decision cues are applied can cause statistical fluctuations that influence the decision that will be taken. In this rigorous sense, it is possible to partially predict decisions before they are made. This raises issues about free will and determinism. There are many decision-making networks in the brain. Some decision systems operate to choose between gene-specified rewards such as taste, touch, and beauty (in for example the peacock's tail). Other processes capable of planning ahead with multiple steps held in working memory may require correction by higher order thoughts that may involve explicit, conscious, processing. The explicit system can allow the gene-specified rewards not to be selected or deferred. The decisions between the selfish gene-specified rewards, and the explicitly calculated rewards that are in the interests of the individual, the phenotype, may themselves be influenced by noise in the brain. When the explicit planning system does take the decision, it can report on its decision-making, and can provide a causal account rather than a confabulation about the decision process. We might use the terms “willed action” and “free will” to refer to the operation of the planning system that can think ahead over several steps held in working memory with which it can take explicit decisions. Reduced connectivity in some of the default mode cortical regions including the precuneus that are active during self-initiated action appears to be related to the reduction in the sense of self and agency, of causing willed actions, that can be present in schizophrenia. PMID:22973205

Climate change and the economics of biomass energy feedstocks in semi-arid agricultural landscapes: A spatially explicit real options analysis.

PubMed

Regan, Courtney M; Connor, Jeffery D; Raja Segaran, Ramesh; Meyer, Wayne S; Bryan, Brett A; Ostendorf, Bertram

2017-05-01

The economics of establishing perennial species as renewable energy feedstocks has been widely investigated as a climate change adapted diversification option for landholders, primarily using net present value (NPV) analysis. NPV does not account for key uncertainties likely to influence relevant landholder decision making. While real options analysis (ROA) is an alternative method that accounts for the uncertainty over future conditions and the large upfront irreversible investment involved in establishing perennials, there have been limited applications of ROA to evaluating land use change decision economics and even fewer applications considering climate change risks. Further, while the influence of spatially varying climate risk on biomass conversion economic has been widely evaluated using NPV methods, effects of spatial variability and climate on land use change have been scarcely assessed with ROA. In this study we applied a simulation-based ROA model to evaluate a landholder's decision to convert land from agriculture to biomass. This spatially explicit model considers price and yield risks under baseline climate and two climate change scenarios over a geographically diverse farming region. We found that underlying variability in primary productivity across the study area had a substantial effect on conversion thresholds required to trigger land use change when compared to results from NPV analysis. Areas traditionally thought of as being quite similar in average productive capacity can display large differences in response to the inclusion of production and price risks. The effects of climate change, broadly reduced returns required for land use change to biomass in low and medium rainfall zones and increased them in higher rainfall areas. Additionally, the risks posed by climate change can further exacerbate the tendency for NPV methods to underestimate true conversion thresholds. Our results show that even under severe drying and warming where crop yield variability is more affected than perennial biomass plantings, comparatively little of the study area is economically viable for conversion to biomass under $200/DM t, and it is not until prices exceed $200/DM t that significant areas become profitable for biomass plantings. We conclude that for biomass to become a valuable diversification option the synchronisation of products and services derived from biomass and the development of markets is vital. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces of land change, and is transferable to other case study areas with different land use change processes and consequences. The framework starts with the involvement of stakeholders where driving forces of land use change are being studied by performing interviews and group discussions. In order to bridge the gap between qualitative methods and conventional geospatial techniques, we applied cognitive mapping and the Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact and Response framework (DPSIR) to develop a conceptual land use change model. This was later transformed into a spatially explicit land use change model based on remote sensing data, GIS and cellular automata spatial allocation. The methodology was developed and applied in a study area in the eastern Italian Alps, where the uncertainties regarding future urban expansion are high. Later, we transferred it to a study area in the Romanian Carpathians, where the identified prevailing process of land use change is deforestation. Both areas are subject to hydro-meteorological risk, posing a need for the analysis of the possible future spatial pattern and locations of land use change. The resulting scenarios enabled us, to point at identifying hot-spots of land use change, serving as a possible input for a risk assessment.

What aspects of vision facilitate haptic processing?

PubMed

Millar, Susanna; Al-Attar, Zainab

2005-12-01

We investigate how vision affects haptic performance when task-relevant visual cues are reduced or excluded. The task was to remember the spatial location of six landmarks that were explored by touch in a tactile map. Here, we use specially designed spectacles that simulate residual peripheral vision, tunnel vision, diffuse light perception, and total blindness. Results for target locations differed, suggesting additional effects from adjacent touch cues. These are discussed. Touch with full vision was most accurate, as expected. Peripheral and tunnel vision, which reduce visuo-spatial cues, differed in error pattern. Both were less accurate than full vision, and significantly more accurate than touch with diffuse light perception, and touch alone. The important finding was that touch with diffuse light perception, which excludes spatial cues, did not differ from touch without vision in performance accuracy, nor in location error pattern. The contrast between spatially relevant versus spatially irrelevant vision provides new, rather decisive, evidence against the hypothesis that vision affects haptic processing even if it does not add task-relevant information. The results support optimal integration theories, and suggest that spatial and non-spatial aspects of vision need explicit distinction in bimodal studies and theories of spatial integration.

Spatially explicit and stochastic simulation of forest landscape fire disturbance and succession

Treesearch

Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff

1999-01-01

Understanding disturbance and recovery of forest landscapes is a challenge because of complex interactions over a range of temporal and spatial scales. Landscape simulation models offer an approach to studying such systems at broad scales. Fire can be simulated spatially using mechanistic or stochastic approaches. We describe the fire module in a spatially explicit,...

Spatial working memory interferes with explicit, but not probabilistic cuing of spatial attention.

PubMed

Won, Bo-Yeong; Jiang, Yuhong V

2015-05-01

Recent empirical and theoretical work has depicted a close relationship between visual attention and visual working memory. For example, rehearsal in spatial working memory depends on spatial attention, whereas adding a secondary spatial working memory task impairs attentional deployment in visual search. These findings have led to the proposal that working memory is attention directed toward internal representations. Here, we show that the close relationship between these 2 constructs is limited to some but not all forms of spatial attention. In 5 experiments, participants held color arrays, dot locations, or a sequence of dots in working memory. During the memory retention interval, they performed a T-among-L visual search task. Crucially, the probable target location was cued either implicitly through location probability learning or explicitly with a central arrow or verbal instruction. Our results showed that whereas imposing a visual working memory load diminished the effectiveness of explicit cuing, it did not interfere with probability cuing. We conclude that spatial working memory shares similar mechanisms with explicit, goal-driven attention but is dissociated from implicitly learned attention. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Spatial working memory interferes with explicit, but not probabilistic cuing of spatial attention

PubMed Central

Won, Bo-Yeong; Jiang, Yuhong V.

2014-01-01

Recent empirical and theoretical work has depicted a close relationship between visual attention and visual working memory. For example, rehearsal in spatial working memory depends on spatial attention, whereas adding a secondary spatial working memory task impairs attentional deployment in visual search. These findings have led to the proposal that working memory is attention directed toward internal representations. Here we show that the close relationship between these two constructs is limited to some but not all forms of spatial attention. In five experiments, participants held color arrays, dot locations, or a sequence of dots in working memory. During the memory retention interval they performed a T-among-L visual search task. Crucially, the probable target location was cued either implicitly through location probability learning, or explicitly with a central arrow or verbal instruction. Our results showed that whereas imposing a visual working memory load diminished the effectiveness of explicit cuing, it did not interfere with probability cuing. We conclude that spatial working memory shares similar mechanisms with explicit, goal-driven attention but is dissociated from implicitly learned attention. PMID:25401460

Semantics of directly manipulating spatializations.

PubMed

Hu, Xinran; Bradel, Lauren; Maiti, Dipayan; House, Leanna; North, Chris; Leman, Scotland

2013-12-01

When high-dimensional data is visualized in a 2D plane by using parametric projection algorithms, users may wish to manipulate the layout of the data points to better reflect their domain knowledge or to explore alternative structures. However, few users are well-versed in the algorithms behind the visualizations, making parameter tweaking more of a guessing game than a series of decisive interactions. Translating user interactions into algorithmic input is a key component of Visual to Parametric Interaction (V2PI) [13]. Instead of adjusting parameters, users directly move data points on the screen, which then updates the underlying statistical model. However, we have found that some data points that are not moved by the user are just as important in the interactions as the data points that are moved. Users frequently move some data points with respect to some other 'unmoved' data points that they consider as spatially contextual. However, in current V2PI interactions, these points are not explicitly identified when directly manipulating the moved points. We design a richer set of interactions that makes this context more explicit, and a new algorithm and sophisticated weighting scheme that incorporates the importance of these unmoved data points into V2PI.

Developing an Ecosystem Services Online Decision Support Tool to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change and Urban Growth in the Santa Cruz Watershed: Where We Live, Work, and Play

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norman, Laura; Tallent-Halsell, Nita; Labiosa, William; Weber, Matt; McCoy, Amy; Hirschboeck, Katie; Callegary, James; van Riper, Charles; Gray, Floyd

2010-01-01

Using respective strengths of the biological, physical, and social sciences, we are developing an online decision support tool, the Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SCWEPM), to help promote the use of information relevant to water allocation and land management in a binational watershed along the U.S.-Mexico border. The SCWEPM will include an ES valuation system within a suite of linked regional driver-response models and will use a multicriteria scenario-evaluation framework that builds on GIS analysis and spatially-explicit models that characterize important ecological, economic, and societal endpoints and consequences that are sensitive to climate patterns, regional water budgets, and regional LULC change in the SCW.

A methodology to estimate the future extent of dryland salinity in the southwest of Western Australia.

PubMed

Caccetta, Peter; Dunne, Robert; George, Richard; McFarlane, Don

2010-01-01

In the southwestern agricultural region of Western Australia, the clearing of the original perennial vegetation for annual vegetation-based dryland agriculture has lead to rising saline groundwater levels. This has had effects such as reduced productivity of agricultural land, death of native vegetation, reduced stream water quality and infrastructure damage. These effects have been observed at many locations within the 18 million ha of cleared land. This has lead to efforts to quantify, in a spatially explicit way, the historical and likely future extent of the area affected, with the view to informing management decisions. This study was conducted to determine whether the likely future extent of the area affected by dryland salinity could be estimated by means of developing spatially explicit maps for use in management and planning. We derived catchment-related variables from digital elevation models and perennial vegetation presence/absence maps. We then used these variables to predict the salinity hazard extent by applying a combination of decision tree classification and morphological image processing algorithms. Sufficient objective data such as groundwater depth, its rate of rise, and its concentration of dissolved salts were generally not available, so we used regional expert opinion (derived from the limited existing studies on salinity hazard extent) as training and validation data. We obtained an 87% agreement in the salinity hazard extent estimated by this method compared with the validation data, and conclude that the maps are sufficient for planning. We estimate that the salinity hazard extent is 29.7% of the agricultural land.

Landscape configuration is the primary driver of impacts on water quality associated with agricultural expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Hamel, Perrine; Sharp, Richard; Kowal, Virgina; Wolny, Stacie; Sim, Sarah; Mueller, Carina

2016-07-01

Corporations and other multinational institutions are increasingly looking to evaluate their innovation and procurement decisions over a range of environmental criteria, including impacts on ecosystem services according to the spatial configuration of activities on the landscape. We have developed a spatially explicit approach and modeled a hypothetical corporate supply chain decision representing contrasting patterns of land-use change in four regions of the globe. This illustrates the effect of introducing spatial considerations in the analysis of ecosystem services, specifically sediment retention. We explored a wide variety of contexts (Iowa, USA; Mato Grosso, Brazil; and Jiangxi and Heilongjiang in China) and these show that per-area representation of impacts based on the physical characterization of a region can be misleading. We found two- to five-fold differences in sediment export for the same amount of habitat conversion within regions characterized by similar physical traits. These differences were mainly determined by the distance between land use changes and streams. The influence of landscape configuration is so dramatic that it can override wide variation in erosion potential driven by physical factors like soil type, slope, and climate. To minimize damage to spatially-dependent ecosystem services like water purification, sustainable sourcing strategies should not assume a direct correlation between impact and area but rather allow for possible nonlinearity in impacts, especially in regions with little remaining habitat and highly variable hydrological connectivity.

Modeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bled, Florent; Sauer, John R.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Doherty, Paul; Royle, J. Andy

2013-01-01

Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

Flood risk in a changing world - a coupled transdisciplinary modelling framework for flood risk assessment in an Alpine study area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneeberger, Klaus; Winter, Benjamin; Pazur, Robert; Förster, Kristian; Achleitner, Stefan; Bolliger, Janine

2017-04-01

Devastating flood events have caused substantial economic damage across Europe during past decades. Flood risk management has therefore become a topic of crucial interest across state agencies, research communities and the public sector including insurances. There is consensus that mitigating flood risk relies on impact assessments which quantitatively account for a broad range of aspects in a (changing) environment. Flood risk assessments which take into account the interaction between the drivers climate change, land-use change and socio-economic change might bring new insights to the understanding of the magnitude and spatial characteristic of flood risks. Furthermore, the comparative assessment of different adaptation measures can give valuable information for decision-making. With this contribution we present an inter- and transdisciplinary research project aiming at developing and applying such an impact assessment relying on a coupled modelling framework for the Province of Vorarlberg in Austria. Stakeholder engagement ensures that the final outcomes of our study are accepted and successfully implemented in flood management practice. The study addresses three key questions: (i) What are scenarios of land- use and climate change for the study area? (ii) How will the magnitude and spatial characteristic of future flood risk change as a result of changes in climate and land use? (iii) Are there spatial planning and building-protection measures which effectively reduce future flood risk? The modelling framework has a modular structure comprising modules (i) climate change, (ii) land-use change, (iii) hydrologic modelling, (iv) flood risk analysis, and (v) adaptation measures. Meteorological time series are coupled with spatially explicit scenarios of land-use change to model runoff time series. The runoff time series are combined with impact indicators such as building damages and results are statistically assessed to analyse flood risk scenarios. Thus, the regional flood risk can be expressed in terms of expected annual damage and damages associated with a low probability of occurrence. We consider building protection measures explicitly as part of the consequence analysis of flood risk whereas spatial planning measures are already considered as explicit scenarios in the course of land-use change modelling.

Latin hypercube sampling and geostatistical modeling of spatial uncertainty in a spatially explicit forest landscape model simulation

Treesearch

Chonggang Xu; Hong S. He; Yuanman Hu; Yu Chang; Xiuzhen Li; Rencang Bu

2005-01-01

Geostatistical stochastic simulation is always combined with Monte Carlo method to quantify the uncertainty in spatial model simulations. However, due to the relatively long running time of spatially explicit forest models as a result of their complexity, it is always infeasible to generate hundreds or thousands of Monte Carlo simulations. Thus, it is of great...

Modeling aesthetics to support an ecosystem services approach for natural resource management decision making.

PubMed

Booth, Pieter N; Law, Sheryl A; Ma, Jane; Buonagurio, John; Boyd, James; Turnley, Jessica

2017-09-01

This paper reviews literature on aesthetics and describes the development of vista and landscape aesthetics models. Spatially explicit variables were chosen to represent physical characteristics of natural landscapes that are important to aesthetic preferences. A vista aesthetics model evaluates the aesthetics of natural landscapes viewed from distances of more than 1000 m, and a landscape aesthetics model evaluates the aesthetic value of wetlands and forests within 1000 m from the viewer. Each of the model variables is quantified using spatially explicit metrics on a pixel-specific basis within EcoAIM™, a geographic information system (GIS)-based ecosystem services (ES) decision analysis support tool. Pixel values are "binned" into ranked categories, and weights are assigned to select variables to represent stakeholder preferences. The final aesthetic score is the weighted sum of all variables and is assigned ranked values from 1 to 10. Ranked aesthetic values are displayed on maps by patch type and integrated within EcoAIM. The response of the aesthetic scoring in the models was tested by comparing current conditions in a discrete area of the facility with a Development scenario in the same area. The Development scenario consisted of two 6-story buildings and a trail replacing natural areas. The results of the vista aesthetic model indicate that the viewshed area variable had the greatest effect on the aesthetics overall score. Results from the landscape aesthetics model indicate a 10% increase in overall aesthetics value, attributed to the increase in landscape diversity. The models are sensitive to the weights assigned to certain variables by the user, and these weights should be set to reflect regional landscape characteristics as well as stakeholder preferences. This demonstration project shows that natural landscape aesthetics can be evaluated as part of a nonmonetary assessment of ES, and a scenario-building exercise provides end users with a tradeoff analysis in support of natural resource management decisions. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:926-938. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Importance of spatial autocorrelation in modeling bird distributions at a continental scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bahn, V.; O'Connor, R.J.; Krohn, W.B.

2006-01-01

Spatial autocorrelation in species' distributions has been recognized as inflating the probability of a type I error in hypotheses tests, causing biases in variable selection, and violating the assumption of independence of error terms in models such as correlation or regression. However, it remains unclear whether these problems occur at all spatial resolutions and extents, and under which conditions spatially explicit modeling techniques are superior. Our goal was to determine whether spatial models were superior at large extents and across many different species. In addition, we investigated the importance of purely spatial effects in distribution patterns relative to the variation that could be explained through environmental conditions. We studied distribution patterns of 108 bird species in the conterminous United States using ten years of data from the Breeding Bird Survey. We compared the performance of spatially explicit regression models with non-spatial regression models using Akaike's information criterion. In addition, we partitioned the variance in species distributions into an environmental, a pure spatial and a shared component. The spatially-explicit conditional autoregressive regression models strongly outperformed the ordinary least squares regression models. In addition, partialling out the spatial component underlying the species' distributions showed that an average of 17% of the explained variation could be attributed to purely spatial effects independent of the spatial autocorrelation induced by the underlying environmental variables. We concluded that location in the range and neighborhood play an important role in the distribution of species. Spatially explicit models are expected to yield better predictions especially for mobile species such as birds, even in coarse-grained models with a large extent. ?? Ecography.

AHP-based spatial analysis of water quality impact assessment due to change in vehicular traffic caused by highway broadening in Sikkim Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerjee, Polash; Ghose, Mrinal Kanti; Pradhan, Ratika

2018-05-01

Spatial analysis of water quality impact assessment of highway projects in mountainous areas remains largely unexplored. A methodology is presented here for Spatial Water Quality Impact Assessment (SWQIA) due to highway-broadening-induced vehicular traffic change in the East district of Sikkim. Pollution load of the highway runoff was estimated using an Average Annual Daily Traffic-Based Empirical model in combination with mass balance model to predict pollution in the rivers within the study area. Spatial interpolation and overlay analysis were used for impact mapping. Analytic Hierarchy Process-Based Water Quality Status Index was used to prepare a composite impact map. Model validation criteria, cross-validation criteria, and spatial explicit sensitivity analysis show that the SWQIA model is robust. The study shows that vehicular traffic is a significant contributor to water pollution in the study area. The model is catering specifically to impact analysis of the concerned project. It can be an aid for decision support system for the project stakeholders. The applicability of SWQIA model needs to be explored and validated in the context of a larger set of water quality parameters and project scenarios at a greater spatial scale.

Age-related variance in decisions under ambiguity is explained by changes in reasoning, executive functions, and decision-making under risk.

PubMed

Schiebener, Johannes; Brand, Matthias

2017-06-01

Previous literature has explained older individuals' disadvantageous decision-making under ambiguity in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) by reduced emotional warning signals preceding decisions. We argue that age-related reductions in IGT performance may also be explained by reductions in certain cognitive abilities (reasoning, executive functions). In 210 participants (18-86 years), we found that the age-related variance on IGT performance occurred only in the last 60 trials. The effect was mediated by cognitive abilities and their relation with decision-making performance under risk with explicit rules (Game of Dice Task). Thus, reductions in cognitive functions in older age may be associated with both a reduced ability to gain explicit insight into the rules of the ambiguous decision situation and with failure to choose the less risky options consequently after the rules have been understood explicitly. Previous literature may have underestimated the relevance of cognitive functions for age-related decline in decision-making performance under ambiguity.

Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Rachel; Acevedo, William; Soulard, Christopher E.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

2015-01-01

Spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation models of land use and land cover (LULC) increase our ability to assess regional landscape characteristics and associated carbon dynamics across multiple scenarios. By characterizing appropriate spatial attributes such as forest age and land-use distribution, a state-and-transition model can more effectively simulate the pattern and spread of LULC changes. This manuscript describes the methods and input parameters of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a customized state-and-transition simulation model utilized to assess the relative impacts of LULC on carbon stocks for the conterminous U.S. The methods and input parameters are spatially explicit and describe initial conditions (strata, state classes and forest age), spatial multipliers, and carbon stock density. Initial conditions were derived from harmonization of multi-temporal data characterizing changes in land use as well as land cover. Harmonization combines numerous national-level datasets through a cell-based data fusion process to generate maps of primary LULC categories. Forest age was parameterized using data from the North American Carbon Program and spatially-explicit maps showing the locations of past disturbances (i.e. wildfire and harvest). Spatial multipliers were developed to spatially constrain the location of future LULC transitions. Based on distance-decay theory, maps were generated to guide the placement of changes related to forest harvest, agricultural intensification/extensification, and urbanization. We analyze the spatially-explicit input parameters with a sensitivity analysis, by showing how LUCAS responds to variations in the model input. This manuscript uses Mediterranean California as a regional subset to highlight local to regional aspects of land change, which demonstrates the utility of LUCAS at many scales and applications.

Global Mapping of Provisioning Ecosystem Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bingham, Lisa; Straatsma, Menno; Karssenberg, Derek

2016-04-01

Attributing monetary value to ecosystem services for decision-making has become more relevant as a basis for decision-making. There are a number of problematic aspects of the calculations, including consistency of economy represented (e.g., purchasing price, production price) and determining which ecosystem subservices to include in a valuation. While several authors have proposed methods for calculating ecosystem services and calculations are presented for global and regional studies, the calculations are mostly broken down into biomes and regions without showing spatially explicit results. The key to decision-making for governments is to be able to make spatial-based decisions because a large spatial variation may exist within a biome or region. Our objective was to compute the spatial distribution of global ecosystem services based on 89 subservices. Initially, only the provisioning ecosystem service category is presented. The provisioning ecosystem service category was calculated using 6 ecosystem services (food, water, raw materials, genetic resources, medical resources, and ornaments) divided into 41 subservices. Global data sets were obtained from a variety of governmental and research agencies for the year 2005 because this is the most data complete and recent year available. All data originated either in tabular or grid formats and were disaggregated to 10 km cell length grids. A lookup table with production values by subservice by country were disaggregated over the economic zone (either marine, land, or combination) based on the spatial existence of the subservice (e.g. forest cover, crop land, non-arable land). Values express the production price in international dollars per hectare. The ecosystem services and the ecosystem service category(ies) maps may be used to show spatial variation of a service within and between countries as well as to specifically show the values within specific regions (e.g. countries, continents), biomes (e.g. coastal, forest), or hazardous regions (e.g. landslides, flood plains, war zones). A preliminary example of the provisioning ecosystem service category illustrates the valuation of deltaic regions and a second example illustrates the valuation of the subservice category of food production prices in flood zones. Future work of this research will spatially represent the calculations of the remaining three ecosystem service categories (regulating, habitat, cultural) and investigate the propagation of uncertainty of the input data to ecosystem service maps.

Practical Strategies for Integrating Final Ecosystem Goods and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The concept of Final Ecosystem Goods and Services (FEGS) explicitly connects ecosystem services to the people that benefit from them. This report presents a number of practical strategies for incorporating FEGS, and more broadly ecosystem services, into the decision-making process. Whether a decision process is in early or late stages, or whether a process includes informal or formal decision analysis, there are multiple points where ecosystem services concepts can be integrated. This report uses Structured Decision Making (SDM) as an organizing framework to illustrate the role ecosystem services can play in a values-focused decision-process, including: • Clarifying the decision context: Ecosystem services can help clarify the potential impacts of an issue on natural resources together with their spatial and temporal extent based on supply and delivery of those services, and help identify beneficiaries for inclusion as stakeholders in the deliberative process. • Defining objectives and performance measures: Ecosystem services may directly represent stakeholder objectives, or may be means toward achieving other objectives. • Creating alternatives: Ecosystem services can bring to light creative alternatives for achieving other social, economic, health, or general well-being objectives. • Estimating consequences: Ecosystem services assessments can implement ecological production functions (EPFs) and ecological benefits functions (EBFs) to link decision alt

Development and assessment of 30-meter pine density maps for landscape-level modeling of mountain pine beetle dynamics

Treesearch

Benjamin A. Crabb; James A. Powell; Barbara J. Bentz

2012-01-01

Forecasting spatial patterns of mountain pine beetle (MPB) population success requires spatially explicit information on host pine distribution. We developed a means of producing spatially explicit datasets of pine density at 30-m resolution using existing geospatial datasets of vegetation composition and structure. Because our ultimate goal is to model MPB population...

The organisation of spatial and temporal relations in memory.

PubMed

Rondina, Renante; Curtiss, Kaitlin; Meltzer, Jed A; Barense, Morgan D; Ryan, Jennifer D

2017-04-01

Episodic memories are comprised of details of "where" and "when"; spatial and temporal relations, respectively. However, evidence from behavioural, neuropsychological, and neuroimaging studies has provided mixed interpretations about how memories for spatial and temporal relations are organised-they may be hierarchical, fully interactive, or independent. In the current study, we examined the interaction of memory for spatial and temporal relations. Using explicit reports and eye-tracking, we assessed younger and older adults' memory for spatial and temporal relations of objects that were presented singly across time in unique spatial locations. Explicit change detection of spatial relations was affected by a change in temporal relations, but explicit change detection of temporal relations was not affected by a change in spatial relations. Younger and older adults showed eye movement evidence of incidental memory for temporal relations, but only younger adults showed eye movement evidence of incidental memory for spatial relations. Together, these findings point towards a hierarchical organisation of relational memory. The implications of these findings are discussed in the context of the neural mechanisms that may support such a hierarchical organisation of memory.

Comparisons of neural networks to standard techniques for image classification and correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paola, Justin D.; Schowengerdt, Robert A.

1994-01-01

Neural network techniques for multispectral image classification and spatial pattern detection are compared to the standard techniques of maximum-likelihood classification and spatial correlation. The neural network produced a more accurate classification than maximum-likelihood of a Landsat scene of Tucson, Arizona. Some of the errors in the maximum-likelihood classification are illustrated using decision region and class probability density plots. As expected, the main drawback to the neural network method is the long time required for the training stage. The network was trained using several different hidden layer sizes to optimize both the classification accuracy and training speed, and it was found that one node per class was optimal. The performance improved when 3x3 local windows of image data were entered into the net. This modification introduces texture into the classification without explicit calculation of a texture measure. Larger windows were successfully used for the detection of spatial features in Landsat and Magellan synthetic aperture radar imagery.

CONSTRUCTING, PERTURBATION ANALYSIIS AND TESTING OF A MULTI-HABITAT PERIODIC MATRIX POPULATION MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

We present a matrix model that explicitly incorporates spatial habitat structure and seasonality and discuss preliminary results from a landscape level experimental test. Ecological risk to populations is often modeled without explicit treatment of spatially or temporally distri...

Anticipatory stress influences decision making under explicit risk conditions.

PubMed

Starcke, Katrin; Wolf, Oliver T; Markowitsch, Hans J; Brand, Matthias

2008-12-01

Recent research has suggested that stress may affect memory, executive functioning, and decision making on the basis of emotional feedback processing. The current study examined whether anticipatory stress affects decision making measured with the Game of Dice Task (GDT), a decision-making task with explicit and stable rules that taps both executive functioning and feedback learning. The authors induced stress in 20 participants by having them anticipate giving a public speech and also examined 20 comparison subjects. The authors assessed the level of stress with questionnaires and endocrine markers (salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase), both revealing that speech anticipation led to increased stress. Results of the GDT showed that participants under stress scored significantly lower than the comparison group and that GDT performance was negatively correlated with the increase of cortisol. Our results indicate that stress can lead to disadvantageous decision making even when explicit and stable information about outcome contingencies is provided.

Characterizing riverbed sediment using high-frequency acoustics 2: scattering signatures of Colorado River bed sediment in Marble and Grand Canyons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buscombe, Daniel D.; Grams, Paul E.; Kaplinski, Matt A.

2014-01-01

In this, the second of a pair of papers on the statistical signatures of riverbed sediment in high-frequency acoustic backscatter, spatially explicit maps of the stochastic geometries (length- and amplitude-scales) of backscatter are related to patches of riverbed surfaces composed of known sediment types, as determined by geo-referenced underwater video observations. Statistics of backscatter magnitudes alone are found to be poor discriminators between sediment types. However, the variance of the power spectrum, and the intercept and slope from a power-law spectral form (termed the spectral strength and exponent, respectively) successfully discriminate between sediment types. A decision-tree approach was able to classify spatially heterogeneous patches of homogeneous sands, gravels (and sand-gravel mixtures), and cobbles/boulders with 95, 88, and 91% accuracy, respectively. Application to sites outside the calibration, and surveys made at calibration sites at different times, were plausible based on observations from underwater video. Analysis of decision trees built with different training data sets suggested that the spectral exponent was consistently the most important variable in the classification. In the absence of theory concerning how spatially variable sediment surfaces scatter high-frequency sound, the primary advantage of this data-driven approach to classify bed sediment over alternatives is that spectral methods have well understood properties and make no assumptions about the distributional form of the fluctuating component of backscatter over small spatial scales.

On Spatially Explicit Models of Cholera Epidemics: Hydrologic controls, environmental drivers, human-mediated transmissions (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinaldo, A.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

2010-12-01

A recently proposed model for cholera epidemics is examined. The model accounts for local communities of susceptibles and infectives in a spatially explicit arrangement of nodes linked by networks having different topologies. The vehicle of infection (Vibrio cholerae) is transported through the network links which are thought of as hydrological connections among susceptible communities. The mathematical tools used are borrowed from general schemes of reactive transport on river networks acting as the environmental matrix for the circulation and mixing of water-borne pathogens. The results of a large-scale application to the Kwa Zulu (Natal) epidemics of 2001-2002 will be discussed. Useful theoretical results derived in the spatially-explicit context will also be reviewed (like e.g. the exact derivation of the speed of propagation for traveling fronts of epidemics on regular lattices endowed with uniform population density). Network effects will be discussed. The analysis of the limit case of uniformly distributed population density proves instrumental in establishing the overall conditions for the relevance of spatially explicit models. To that extent, it is shown that the ratio between spreading and disease outbreak timescales proves the crucial parameter. The relevance of our results lies in the major differences potentially arising between the predictions of spatially explicit models and traditional compartmental models of the SIR-like type. Our results suggest that in many cases of real-life epidemiological interest timescales of disease dynamics may trigger outbreaks that significantly depart from the predictions of compartmental models. Finally, a view on further developments includes: hydrologically improved aquatic reservoir models for pathogens; human mobility patterns affecting disease propagation; double-peak emergence and seasonality in the spatially explicit epidemic context.

Neural mechanisms of human perceptual choice under focused and divided attention.

PubMed

Wyart, Valentin; Myers, Nicholas E; Summerfield, Christopher

2015-02-25

Perceptual decisions occur after the evaluation and integration of momentary sensory inputs, and dividing attention between spatially disparate sources of information impairs decision performance. However, it remains unknown whether dividing attention degrades the precision of sensory signals, precludes their conversion into decision signals, or dampens the integration of decision information toward an appropriate response. Here we recorded human electroencephalographic (EEG) activity while participants categorized one of two simultaneous and independent streams of visual gratings according to their average tilt. By analyzing trial-by-trial correlations between EEG activity and the information offered by each sample, we obtained converging behavioral and neural evidence that dividing attention between left and right visual fields does not dampen the encoding of sensory or decision information. Under divided attention, momentary decision information from both visual streams was encoded in slow parietal signals without interference but was lost downstream during their integration as reflected in motor mu- and beta-band (10-30 Hz) signals, resulting in a "leaky" accumulation process that conferred greater behavioral influence to more recent samples. By contrast, sensory inputs that were explicitly cued as irrelevant were not converted into decision signals. These findings reveal that a late cognitive bottleneck on information integration limits decision performance under divided attention, and places new capacity constraints on decision-theoretic models of information integration under cognitive load. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/353485-14$15.00/0.

Neural mechanisms of human perceptual choice under focused and divided attention

PubMed Central

Wyart, Valentin; Myers, Nicholas E.; Summerfield, Christopher

2015-01-01

Perceptual decisions occur after evaluation and integration of momentary sensory inputs, and dividing attention between spatially disparate sources of information impairs decision performance. However, it remains unknown whether dividing attention degrades the precision of sensory signals, precludes their conversion into decision signals, or dampens the integration of decision information towards an appropriate response. Here we recorded human electroencephalographic (EEG) activity whilst participants categorised one of two simultaneous and independent streams of visual gratings according to their average tilt. By analyzing trial-by-trial correlations between EEG activity and the information offered by each sample, we obtained converging behavioural and neural evidence that dividing attention between left and right visual fields does not dampen the encoding of sensory or decision information. Under divided attention, momentary decision information from both visual streams was encoded in slow parietal signals without interference but was lost downstream during their integration as reflected in motor mu- and beta-band (10–30 Hz) signals, resulting in a ‘leaky’ accumulation process which conferred greater behavioural influence to more recent samples. By contrast, sensory inputs that were explicitly cued as irrelevant were not converted into decision signals. These findings reveal that a late cognitive bottleneck on information integration limits decision performance under divided attention, and place new capacity constraints on decision-theoretic models of information integration under cognitive load. PMID:25716848

Behavioral response to contamination risk information in a spatially explicit groundwater environment: Experimental evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jingyuan; Michael, Holly A.; Duke, Joshua M.; Messer, Kent D.; Suter, Jordan F.

2014-08-01

This paper assesses the effectiveness of aquifer monitoring information in achieving more sustainable use of a groundwater resource in the absence of management policy. Groundwater user behavior in the face of an irreversible contamination threat is studied by applying methods of experimental economics to scenarios that combine a physics-based, spatially explicit, numerical groundwater model with different representations of information about an aquifer and its risk of contamination. The results suggest that the threat of catastrophic contamination affects pumping decisions: pumping is significantly reduced in experiments where contamination is possible compared to those where pumping cost is the only factor discouraging groundwater use. The level of information about the state of the aquifer also affects extraction behavior. Pumping rates differ when information that synthesizes data on aquifer conditions (a "risk gauge") is provided, despite invariant underlying economic incentives, and this result does not depend on whether the risk information is location-specific or from a whole aquifer perspective. Interestingly, users increase pumping when the risk gauge signals good aquifer status compared to a no-gauge treatment. When the gauge suggests impending contamination, however, pumping declines significantly, resulting in a lower probability of contamination. The study suggests that providing relatively simple aquifer condition guidance derived from monitoring data can lead to more sustainable use of groundwater resources.

DEFINING RECOVERY GOALS AND STRATEGIES FOR ENDANGERED SPECIES USING SPATIALLY-EXPLICIT POPULATION MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

We used a spatially explicit population model of wolves (Canis lupus) to propose a framework for defining rangewide recovery priorities and finer-scale strategies for regional reintroductions. The model predicts that Yellowstone and central Idaho, where wolves have recently been ...

Development and Validation of Spatially Explicit Habitat Models for Cavity-nesting Birds in Fishlake National Forest, Utah

Treesearch

Randall A., Jr. Schultz; Thomas C., Jr. Edwards; Gretchen G. Moisen; Tracey S. Frescino

2005-01-01

The ability of USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) generated spatial products to increase the predictive accuracy of spatially explicit, macroscale habitat models was examined for nest-site selection by cavity-nesting birds in Fishlake National Forest, Utah. One FIA-derived variable (percent basal area of aspen trees) was significant in the habitat...

HexSim - A general purpose framework for spatially-explicit, individual-based modeling

EPA Science Inventory

HexSim is a framework for constructing spatially-explicit, individual-based computer models designed for simulating terrestrial wildlife population dynamics and interactions. HexSim is useful for a broad set of modeling applications. This talk will focus on a subset of those ap...

Camera traps and mark-resight models: The value of ancillary data for evaluating assumptions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, Arielle W.; Simons, Theodore R.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Stoskopf, Michael K.; Stocking, Jessica J.; O'Connell, Allan F.

2015-01-01

Unbiased estimators of abundance and density are fundamental to the study of animal ecology and critical for making sound management decisions. Capture–recapture models are generally considered the most robust approach for estimating these parameters but rely on a number of assumptions that are often violated but rarely validated. Mark-resight models, a form of capture–recapture, are well suited for use with noninvasive sampling methods and allow for a number of assumptions to be relaxed. We used ancillary data from continuous video and radio telemetry to evaluate the assumptions of mark-resight models for abundance estimation on a barrier island raccoon (Procyon lotor) population using camera traps. Our island study site was geographically closed, allowing us to estimate real survival and in situ recruitment in addition to population size. We found several sources of bias due to heterogeneity of capture probabilities in our study, including camera placement, animal movement, island physiography, and animal behavior. Almost all sources of heterogeneity could be accounted for using the sophisticated mark-resight models developed by McClintock et al. (2009b) and this model generated estimates similar to a spatially explicit mark-resight model previously developed for this population during our study. Spatially explicit capture–recapture models have become an important tool in ecology and confer a number of advantages; however, non-spatial models that account for inherent individual heterogeneity may perform nearly as well, especially where immigration and emigration are limited. Non-spatial models are computationally less demanding, do not make implicit assumptions related to the isotropy of home ranges, and can provide insights with respect to the biological traits of the local population.

Farmers' contribution to landscape services in the Netherlands under different rural development scenarios.

PubMed

Pfeifer, Catherine; Sonneveld, Marthijn P W; Stoorvogel, Jetse J

2012-11-30

Landscape services represent the benefits human populations derive, directly or indirectly, from (agro-)ecosystem functions at the landscape scale. Many of these services are the result of farmers' decision making to allocate resources to other activities than food production and therefore are the result of farm the adoption of on-farm rural activities. With changing agricultural and rural policies, the future provision of landscape services to fulfill societal demands is not guaranteed. This study aims at mapping the spatial distribution of the adoption of on-farm rural activities under different explorative scenarios. For a Dutch landscape, storylines at the landscape scale were developed by combining global storylines, resulting from the Global Environmental Outlook, with local storylines resulting from key informant interviews. Subsequently these storylines were translated into quantitative scenarios that were implemented into a simulation procedure based on spatially explicit econometric models of farmer's decision making. Results show that further market liberalization leads to a decrease of landscape services in the study area. In our study, only increased cooperation between government, farmers and citizens appears to result in a general increase of all landscape services across the entire landscape. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Information gathering, management and transfering for geospacial intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, Paulo; Correia, Anacleto; Teodoro, M. Filomena

2017-07-01

Information is a key subject in modern organization operations. The success of joint and combined operations with organizations partners depends on the accurate information and knowledge flow concerning the operations theatre: provision of resources, environment evolution, markets location, where and when an event occurred. As in the past and nowadays we cannot conceive modern operations without maps and geo-spatial information (GI). Information and knowledge management is fundamental to the success of organizational decisions in an uncertainty environment. The georeferenced information management is a process of knowledge management, it begins in the raw data and ends on generating knowledge. GI and intelligence systems allow us to integrate all other forms of intelligence and can be a main platform to process and display geo-spatial-time referenced events. Combining explicit knowledge with peoples know-how to generate a continuous learning cycle that supports real time decisions mitigates the influences of fog of everyday competition and provides the knowledge supremacy. Extending the preliminary analysis done in [1], this work applies the exploratory factor analysis to a questionnaire about the GI and intelligence management in an organization company allowing to identify future lines of action to improve information process sharing and exploration of all the potential of this important resource.

Decision making under explicit risk is impaired in individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

PubMed

Fujiwara, Esther; Tomlinson, Sara E; Purdon, Scot E; Gill, M John; Power, Christopher

2015-01-01

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) can affect the frontal-striatal brain regions, which are known to subserve decision-making functions. Previous studies have reported impaired decision making among HIV+ individuals using the Iowa Gambling Task, a task that assesses decision making under ambiguity. Previous study populations often had significant comorbidities such as past or present substance use disorders and/or hepatitis C virus coinfection, complicating conclusions about the unique contributions of HIV-infection to decision making. Decision making under explicit risk has very rarely been examined in HIV+ individuals and was tested here using the Game of Dice Task (GDT). We examined decision making under explicit risk in the GDT in 20 HIV+ individuals without substance use disorder or HCV coinfection, including a demographically matched healthy control group (n = 20). Groups were characterized on a standard neuropsychological test battery. For the HIV+ group, several disease-related parameters (viral load, current and nadir CD4 T-cell count) were included. Analyses focused on the GDT and spanned between-group (t-tests; analysis of covariance, ANCOVA) as well as within-group comparisons (Pearson/Spearman correlations). HIV+ individuals were impaired in the GDT, compared to healthy controls (p = .02). Their decision-making impairments were characterized by less advantageous choices and more random choice strategies, especially towards the end of the task. Deficits in the GDT in the HIV+ group were related to executive dysfunctions, slowed processing/motor speed, and current immune system status (CD4+ T-cell levels, ps < .05). Decision making under explicit risk in the GDT can occur in HIV-infected individuals without comorbidities. The correlational patterns may point to underlying fronto-subcortical dysfunctions in HIV+ individuals. The GDT provides a useful measure to assess risky decision making in this population and should be tested in larger studies.

From water use to water scarcity footprinting in environmentally extended input-output analysis.

PubMed

Ridoutt, Bradley George; Hadjikakou, Michalis; Nolan, Martin; Bryan, Brett A

2018-05-18

Environmentally extended input-output analysis (EEIOA) supports environmental policy by quantifying how demand for goods and services leads to resource use and emissions across the economy. However, some types of resource use and emissions require spatially-explicit impact assessment for meaningful interpretation, which is not possible in conventional EEIOA. For example, water use in locations of scarcity and abundance is not environmentally equivalent. Opportunities for spatially-explicit impact assessment in conventional EEIOA are limited because official input-output tables tend to be produced at the scale of political units which are not usually well aligned with environmentally relevant spatial units. In this study, spatially-explicit water scarcity factors and a spatially disaggregated Australian water use account were used to develop water scarcity extensions that were coupled with a multi-regional input-output model (MRIO). The results link demand for agricultural commodities to the problem of water scarcity in Australia and globally. Important differences were observed between the water use and water scarcity footprint results, as well as the relative importance of direct and indirect water use, with significant implications for sustainable production and consumption-related policies. The approach presented here is suggested as a feasible general approach for incorporating spatially-explicit impact assessment in EEIOA.

What Do They Have in Common? Physical Drivers of Streamflow Spatial Correlation and Prediction of Flow Regimes at Ungauged Locations in the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betterle, A.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

2017-12-01

Streamflow dynamics strongly influence anthropogenic activities and the ecological functions of riverine and riparian habitats. However, the widespread lack of direct discharge measurements often challenges the set-up of conscious and effective decision-making processes, including droughts and floods protection, water resources management and river restoration practices. By characterizing the spatial correlation of daily streamflow timeseries at two arbitrary locations, this study provides a method to evaluate how spatially variable catchment-scale hydrological process affects the resulting streamflow dynamics along and across river systems. In particular, streamflow spatial correlation is described analytically as a function of morphological, climatic and vegetation properties in the contributing catchments, building on a joint probabilistic description of flow dynamics at pairs of outlets. The approach enables an explicit linkage between similarities of flow dynamics and spatial patterns of hydrologically relevant features of climate and landscape. Therefore, the method is suited to explore spatial patterns of streamflow dynamics across geomorphoclimatic gradients. In particular, we show how the streamflow correlation can be used at the continental scale to individuate catchment pairs with similar hydrological dynamics, thereby providing a useful tool for the estimate of flow duration curves in poorly gauged areas.

Patterns of land use, extensification, and intensification of Brazilian agriculture.

PubMed

Dias, Lívia C P; Pimenta, Fernando M; Santos, Ana B; Costa, Marcos H; Ladle, Richard J

2016-08-01

Sustainable intensification of agriculture is one of the main strategies to provide global food security. However, its implementation raises enormous political, technological, and social challenges. Meeting these challenges will require, among other things, accurate information on the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural land use and yield. Here, we investigate historical patterns of agricultural land use (1940-2012) and productivity (1990-2012) in Brazil using a new high-resolution (approximately 1 km(2) ) spatially explicit reconstruction. Although Brazilian agriculture has been historically known for its extensification over natural vegetation (Amazon and Cerrado), data from recent years indicate that extensification has slowed down and was replaced by a strong trend of intensification. Our results provide the first comprehensive historical overview of agricultural land use and productivity in Brazil, providing clear insights to guide future territorial planning, sustainable agriculture, policy, and decision-making. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Environmental impact assessment based on planning support system].

PubMed

Chen, Wen-Bo; Carsjens, Gerrit-Jan

2011-02-01

How to assess environmental impact is one of the keys in land use planning. This article described in detail the concepts of activities, impact zones, functions, and sensitivities, as well as the development of STEPP (strategic tool for integrating environmental aspects in planning procedures) based on Avenue, the secondary developing language of ArcView GIS. The system makes it convenient for planning practitioners exchanging information, and can spatially, visually and quantitatively describe environmental impact and its change. In this study, the urban-rural combination area located between EDE and Veenendaal of The Netherlands was taken as case, and the results indicated that the environment was incorporated well in the planning procedure based on the concepts, and could also demonstrate the effects of planning measures on environment spatially, explicitly, and in real-time, facilitating the participation of planning practitioners and decision-making. Some proposals of how to promote STEEP application in China were suggested.

Decision support systems in health economics.

PubMed

Quaglini, S; Dazzi, L; Stefanelli, M; Barosi, G; Marchetti, M

1999-08-01

This article describes a system addressed to different health care professionals for building, using, and sharing decision support systems for resource allocation. The system deals with selected areas, namely the choice of diagnostic tests, the therapy planning, and the instrumentation purchase. Decision support is based on decision-analytic models, incorporating an explicit knowledge representation of both the medical domain knowledge and the economic evaluation theory. Application models are built on top of meta-models, that are used as guidelines for making explicit both the cost and effectiveness components. This approach improves the transparency and soundness of the collaborative decision-making process and facilitates the result interpretation.

The generalizability of gender bias: Testing the effects of contextual, explicit, and implicit sexism on labor arbitration decisions.

PubMed

Girvan, Erik J; Deason, Grace; Borgida, Eugene

2015-10-01

Decades of social-psychological research show that gender bias can result from features of the social context and from individual-level psychological predispositions. Do these sources of bias impact legal decisions, which are frequently made by people subject to factors that have been proposed to reduce bias (training and accountability)? To answer the question, we examined the potential for 3 major social-psychological theories of gender bias (role-congruity theory, ambivalent sexism, and implicit bias) to predict outcomes of labor arbitration decisions. In the first study, undergraduate students and professional arbitrators made decisions about 2 mock arbitration cases in which the gender of the employee-grievants was experimentally manipulated. Student participants' decisions showed the predicted gender bias, whereas the decisions of experienced professionals did not. Individual-level attitudes did not predict the extent of the observed bias and accountability did not attenuate it. In the second study, arbitrators' explicit and implicit gender attitudes were significant predictors of their decisions in published cases. The laboratory and field results suggest that context, expertise, and implicit and explicit attitudes are relevant to legal decision-making, but that laboratory experiments alone may not fully capture the nature of their effect on legal professionals' decisions in real cases. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Expertise and decision-making in American football

PubMed Central

Woods, Adam J.; Kranjec, Alexander; Lehet, Matt; Chatterjee, Anjan

2015-01-01

In American football, pass interference calls can be difficult to make, especially when the timing of contact between players is ambiguous. American football history contains many examples of controversial pass interference decisions, often with fans, players, and officials interpreting the same event differently. The current study sought to evaluate the influence of experience with concepts important for officiating decisions in American football on the probability (i.e., response criteria) of pass interference calls. We further investigated the extent to which such experience modulates perceptual biases that might influence the interpretation of such events. We hypothesized that observers with less experience with the American football concepts important for pass interference would make progressively more pass interference calls than more experienced observers, even when given an explicit description of the necessary criteria for a pass interference call. In a go/no-go experiment using photographs from American football games, three groups of participants with different levels of experience with American football (Football Naïve, Football Player, and Football Official) made pass interference calls for pictures depicting left-moving and right-moving events. More experience was associated with progressively and significantly fewer pass interference calls [F(2,48) = 10.4, p < 0.001], with Football Naïve participants making the most pass interference calls, and Football Officials the least. In addition, our data replicated a prior finding of spatial biases for interpreting left-moving images more harshly than identical right-moving images, but only in Football Players. These data suggest that experience with the concepts important for making a decision may influence the rate of decision-making, and may also play a role in susceptibility to spatial biases. PMID:26217294

Mapping social-ecological vulnerability to inform local decision making.

PubMed

Thiault, Lauric; Marshall, Paul; Gelcich, Stefan; Collin, Antoine; Chlous, Frédérique; Claudet, Joachim

2018-04-01

An overarching challenge of natural resource management and biodiversity conservation is that relationships between people and nature are difficult to integrate into tools that can effectively guide decision making. Social-ecological vulnerability offers a valuable framework for identifying and understanding important social-ecological linkages, and the implications of dependencies and other feedback loops in the system. Unfortunately, its implementation at local scales has hitherto been limited due at least in part to the lack of operational tools for spatial representation of social-ecological vulnerability. We developed a method to map social-ecological vulnerability based on information on human-nature dependencies and ecosystem services at local scales. We applied our method to the small-scale fishery of Moorea, French Polynesia, by combining spatially explicit indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of both the resource (i.e., vulnerability of reef fish assemblages to fishing) and resource users (i.e., vulnerability of fishing households to the loss of fishing opportunity). Our results revealed that both social and ecological vulnerabilities varied considerably through space and highlighted areas where sources of vulnerability were high for both social and ecological subsystems (i.e., social-ecological vulnerability hotspots) and thus of high priority for management intervention. Our approach can be used to inform decisions about where biodiversity conservation strategies are likely to be more effective and how social impacts from policy decisions can be minimized. It provides a new perspective on human-nature linkages that can help guide sustainability management at local scales; delivers insights distinct from those provided by emphasis on a single vulnerability component (e.g., exposure); and demonstrates the feasibility and value of operationalizing the social-ecological vulnerability framework for policy, planning, and participatory management decisions. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Expertise and decision-making in American football.

PubMed

Woods, Adam J; Kranjec, Alexander; Lehet, Matt; Chatterjee, Anjan

2015-01-01

In American football, pass interference calls can be difficult to make, especially when the timing of contact between players is ambiguous. American football history contains many examples of controversial pass interference decisions, often with fans, players, and officials interpreting the same event differently. The current study sought to evaluate the influence of experience with concepts important for officiating decisions in American football on the probability (i.e., response criteria) of pass interference calls. We further investigated the extent to which such experience modulates perceptual biases that might influence the interpretation of such events. We hypothesized that observers with less experience with the American football concepts important for pass interference would make progressively more pass interference calls than more experienced observers, even when given an explicit description of the necessary criteria for a pass interference call. In a go/no-go experiment using photographs from American football games, three groups of participants with different levels of experience with American football (Football Naïve, Football Player, and Football Official) made pass interference calls for pictures depicting left-moving and right-moving events. More experience was associated with progressively and significantly fewer pass interference calls [F (2,48) = 10.4, p < 0.001], with Football Naïve participants making the most pass interference calls, and Football Officials the least. In addition, our data replicated a prior finding of spatial biases for interpreting left-moving images more harshly than identical right-moving images, but only in Football Players. These data suggest that experience with the concepts important for making a decision may influence the rate of decision-making, and may also play a role in susceptibility to spatial biases.

Decision analysis for habitat conservation of an endangered, range-limited salamander

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Orin J.; McGowan, Conor P.; Apodaca, J.J.

2016-01-01

Many species of conservation concern are habitat limited and often a major focus of management for these species is habitat acquisition and/or restoration. Deciding the location of habitat restoration or acquisition to best benefit a protected species can be a complicated subject with competing management objectives, ecological uncertainties and stochasticity. Structured decision making (SDM) could be a useful approach for explicitly incorporating those complexities while still working toward species conservation and/or recovery. We applied an SDM approach to Red Hills salamander Phaeognathus hubrichti habitat conservation decision making. Phaeognathus hubrichti is a severely range-limited endemic species in south central Alabama and has highly specific habitat requirements. Many known populations live on private lands and the primary mode of habitat protection is habitat conservation planning, but such plans are non-binding and not permanent. Working with stakeholders, we developed an objectives hierarchy linking land acquisition or protection actions to fundamental objectives. We built a model to assess and compare the quality of the habitat in the known range of P. hubrichti. Our model evaluated key habitat attributes of 5814 pixels of 1 km2 each and ranked the pixels from best to worst with respect to P. hubrichti habitat requirements. Our results are a spatially explicit valuation of each pixel, with respect to its probable benefit to P. hubrichti populations. The results of this effort will be used to rank pixels from most to least beneficial, then identify land owners in the most useful areas for salamanders who are willing to sell or enter into a permanent easement agreement.

Landscape equivalency analysis: methodology for estimating spatially explicit biodiversity credits.

PubMed

Bruggeman, Douglas J; Jones, Michael L; Lupi, Frank; Scribner, Kim T

2005-10-01

We propose a biodiversity credit system for trading endangered species habitat designed to minimize and reverse the negative effects of habitat loss and fragmentation, the leading cause of species endangerment in the United States. Given the increasing demand for land, approaches that explicitly balance economic goals against conservation goals are required. The Endangered Species Act balances these conflicts based on the cost to replace habitat. Conservation banking is a means to manage this balance, and we argue for its use to mitigate the effects of habitat fragmentation. Mitigating the effects of land development on biodiversity requires decisions that recognize regional ecological effects resulting from local economic decisions. We propose Landscape Equivalency Analysis (LEA), a landscape-scale approach similar to HEA, as an accounting system to calculate conservation banking credits so that habitat trades do not exacerbate regional ecological effects of local decisions. Credits purchased by public agencies or NGOs for purposes other than mitigating a take create a net investment in natural capital leading to habitat defragmentation. Credits calculated by LEA use metapopulation genetic theory to estimate sustainability criteria against which all trades are judged. The approach is rooted in well-accepted ecological, evolutionary, and economic theory, which helps compensate for the degree of uncertainty regarding the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on endangered species. LEA requires application of greater scientific rigor than typically applied to endangered species management on private lands but provides an objective, conceptually sound basis for achieving the often conflicting goals of economic efficiency and long-term ecological sustainability.

A Watershed-based spatially-explicit demonstration of an Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework for Ecosystem Services in the Coal River Basin (WV, USA)

EPA Science Inventory

We demonstrate a spatially-explicit regional assessment of current condition of aquatic ecoservices in the Coal River Basin (CRB), with limited sensitivity analysis for the atmospheric contaminant mercury. The integrated modeling framework (IMF) forecasts water quality and quant...

Spatially explicit shallow landslide susceptibility mapping over large areas

Treesearch

Dino Bellugi; William E. Dietrich; Jonathan Stock; Jim McKean; Brian Kazian; Paul Hargrove

2011-01-01

Recent advances in downscaling climate model precipitation predictions now yield spatially explicit patterns of rainfall that could be used to estimate shallow landslide susceptibility over large areas. In California, the United States Geological Survey is exploring community emergency response to the possible effects of a very large simulated storm event and to do so...

Evaluating spatially explicit burn probabilities for strategic fire management planning

Treesearch

C. Miller; M.-A. Parisien; A. A. Ager; M. A. Finney

2008-01-01

Spatially explicit information on the probability of burning is necessary for virtually all strategic fire and fuels management planning activities, including conducting wildland fire risk assessments, optimizing fuel treatments, and prevention planning. Predictive models providing a reliable estimate of the annual likelihood of fire at each point on the landscape have...

Empirical methods for modeling landscape change, ecosystem services, and biodiversity

Treesearch

David Lewis; Ralph Alig

2009-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to synthesize recent economics research aimed at integrating discrete-choice econometric models of land-use change with spatially-explicit landscape simulations and quantitative ecology. This research explicitly models changes in the spatial pattern of landscapes in two steps: 1) econometric estimation of parcel-scale transition...

SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MICRO-LEVEL MODELLING OF LAND USE CHANGE AT THE RURAL-URBAN INTERFACE. (R828012)

EPA Science Inventory

This paper describes micro-economic models of land use change applicable to the rural–urban interface in the US. Use of a spatially explicit micro-level modelling approach permits the analysis of regional patterns of land use as the aggregate outcomes of many, disparate...

Predicting future spatial distribution of SOC across entire France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meersmans, Jeroen; Van Rompaey, Anton; Quine, Tim; Martin, Manuel; Pagé, Christian; Arrouays, Dominique

2013-04-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is widely recognized as a key factor controlling soil quality and as a crucial and active component of the global C-cycle. Hence, there exists a growing interest in monitoring and modeling the spatial and temporal behavior of this pool. So far, a large attempt has been made to map SOC at national scales for current and/or past situations. Despite some coarse predictions, detailed spatial SOC predictions for the future are still lacking. In this study we aim to predict future spatial evolution of SOC driven by climate and land use change for France up to the year 2100. Therefore, we combined 1) an existing model, predicting SOC as a function of soil type, climate, land use and management (Meersmans et al 2012), with 2) eight different IPCC spatial explicit climate change predictions (conducted by CERFACS) and 3) Land use change scenario predictions. We created business-as-usual land use change scenarios by extrapolating observed trends and calibrating logistic regression models, incorporating a large set of physical and socio-economic factors, at the regional level in combination with a multi-objective land allocation (MOLA) procedure. The resultant detailed projections of future SOC evolution across all regions of France, allow us to identify regions that are most likely to be characterized by a significant gain or loss of SOC and the degree to which land use decisions/outcomes control the scale of loss and gain. Therefore, this methodology and resulting maps can be considered as powerful tools to aid decision making concerning appropriate soil management, in order to enlarge SOC storage possibilities and reduce soil related CO2 fluxes.

Coupling biophysical processes and water rights to simulate spatially distributed water use in an intensively managed hydrologic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Bangshuai; Benner, Shawn G.; Bolte, John P.; Vache, Kellie B.; Flores, Alejandro N.

2017-07-01

Humans have significantly altered the redistribution of water in intensively managed hydrologic systems, shifting the spatiotemporal patterns of surface water. Evaluating water availability requires integration of hydrologic processes and associated human influences. In this study, we summarize the development and evaluation of an extensible hydrologic model that explicitly integrates water rights to spatially distribute irrigation waters in a semi-arid agricultural region in the western US, using the Envision integrated modeling platform. The model captures both human and biophysical systems, particularly the diversion of water from the Boise River, which is the main water source that supports irrigated agriculture in this region. In agricultural areas, water demand is estimated as a function of crop type and local environmental conditions. Surface water to meet crop demand is diverted from the stream reaches, constrained by the amount of water available in the stream, the water-rights-appropriated amount, and the priority dates associated with particular places of use. Results, measured by flow rates at gaged stream and canal locations within the study area, suggest that the impacts of irrigation activities on the magnitude and timing of flows through this intensively managed system are well captured. The multi-year averaged diverted water from the Boise River matches observations well, reflecting the appropriation of water according to the water rights database. Because of the spatially explicit implementation of surface water diversion, the model can help diagnose places and times where water resources are likely insufficient to meet agricultural water demands, and inform future water management decisions.

Modelling individual tree height to crown base of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)

PubMed Central

Jansa, Václav

2017-01-01

Height to crown base (HCB) of a tree is an important variable often included as a predictor in various forest models that serve as the fundamental tools for decision-making in forestry. We developed spatially explicit and spatially inexplicit mixed-effects HCB models using measurements from a total 19,404 trees of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) on the permanent sample plots that are located across the Czech Republic. Variables describing site quality, stand density or competition, and species mixing effects were included into the HCB model with use of dominant height (HDOM), basal area of trees larger in diameters than a subject tree (BAL- spatially inexplicit measure) or Hegyi’s competition index (HCI—spatially explicit measure), and basal area proportion of a species of interest (BAPOR), respectively. The parameters describing sample plot-level random effects were included into the HCB model by applying the mixed-effects modelling approach. Among several functional forms evaluated, the logistic function was found most suited to our data. The HCB model for Norway spruce was tested against the data originated from different inventory designs, but model for European beech was tested using partitioned dataset (a part of the main dataset). The variance heteroscedasticity in the residuals was substantially reduced through inclusion of a power variance function into the HCB model. The results showed that spatially explicit model described significantly a larger part of the HCB variations [R2adj = 0.86 (spruce), 0.85 (beech)] than its spatially inexplicit counterpart [R2adj = 0.84 (spruce), 0.83 (beech)]. The HCB increased with increasing competitive interactions described by tree-centered competition measure: BAL or HCI, and species mixing effects described by BAPOR. A test of the mixed-effects HCB model with the random effects estimated using at least four trees per sample plot in the validation data confirmed that the model was precise enough for the prediction of HCB for a range of site quality, tree size, stand density, and stand structure. We therefore recommend measuring of HCB on four randomly selected trees of a species of interest on each sample plot for localizing the mixed-effects model and predicting HCB of the remaining trees on the plot. Growth simulations can be made from the data that lack the values for either crown ratio or HCB using the HCB models. PMID:29049391

Modeling Wood Encroachment in Abandoned Grasslands in the Eifel National Park – Model Description and Testing

PubMed Central

Hudjetz, Silvana; Lennartz, Gottfried; Krämer, Klara; Roß-Nickoll, Martina; Gergs, André; Preuss, Thomas G.

2014-01-01

The degradation of natural and semi-natural landscapes has become a matter of global concern. In Germany, semi-natural grasslands belong to the most species-rich habitat types but have suffered heavily from changes in land use. After abandonment, the course of succession at a specific site is often difficult to predict because many processes interact. In order to support decision making when managing semi-natural grasslands in the Eifel National Park, we built the WoodS-Model (Woodland Succession Model). A multimodeling approach was used to integrate vegetation dynamics in both the herbaceous and shrub/tree layer. The cover of grasses and herbs was simulated in a compartment model, whereas bushes and trees were modelled in an individual-based manner. Both models worked and interacted in a spatially explicit, raster-based landscape. We present here the model description, parameterization and testing. We show highly detailed projections of the succession of a semi-natural grassland including the influence of initial vegetation composition, neighborhood interactions and ungulate browsing. We carefully weighted the single processes against each other and their relevance for landscape development under different scenarios, while explicitly considering specific site conditions. Model evaluation revealed that the model is able to emulate successional patterns as observed in the field as well as plausible results for different population densities of red deer. Important neighborhood interactions such as seed dispersal, the protection of seedlings from browsing ungulates by thorny bushes, and the inhibition of wood encroachment by the herbaceous layer, have been successfully reproduced. Therefore, not only a detailed model but also detailed initialization turned out to be important for spatially explicit projections of a given site. The advantage of the WoodS-Model is that it integrates these many mutually interacting processes of succession. PMID:25494057

Increasingly, Data Availability Limits Model Predictive Capacity: the Western Lake Erie Basin, a Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrman, K. D.; Johnson, M. V. V.; Atwood, J. D.; Norfleet, M. L.

2016-12-01

Recent algal blooms in Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) have renewed scientific community's interest in developing process based models to better understand and predict the drivers of eutrophic conditions in the lake. At the same time, in order to prevent future blooms, farmers, local communities and policy makers are interested in developing spatially explicit nutrient and sediment management plans at various scales, from field to watershed. These interests have fueled several modeling exercises intended to locate "hotspots" in the basin where targeted adoption of additional agricultural conservation practices could provide the most benefit to water quality. The models have also been used to simulate various scenarios representing potential agricultural solutions. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and its sister model, the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX), have been used to simulate hydrology of interacting land uses in thousands of scientific studies around the world. High performance computing allows SWAT and APEX users to continue to improve and refine the model specificity to make predictions at small-spatial scales. Consequently, data inputs and calibration/validation data are now becoming the limiting factor to model performance. Water quality data for the tributaries and rivers that flow through WLEB is spatially and temporally limited. Land management data, including conservation practice and nutrient management data, are not publicly available at fine spatial and temporal scales. Here we show the data uncertainties associated with modeling WLEB croplands at a relatively large spatial scale (HUC-4) using site management data from over 1,000 farms collected by the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP). The error associated with downscaling this data to the HUC-8 and HUC-12 scale is shown. Simulations of spatially explicit dynamics can be very informative, but care must be taken when policy decisions are made based on models with unstated, but implicit assumptions. As we interpret modeling results, we must communicate the spatial and temporal scale for which the model was developed and at which the data is valid. When there is little to no data to enable appropriate validation and calibration, the results must be interpreted with appropriate skepticism.

Design of a multi-agent hydroeconomic model to simulate a complex human-water system: Early insights from the Jordan Water Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; Klassert, C. J. A.; Lachaut, T.; Selby, P. D.; Knox, S.; Gorelick, S.; Rajsekhar, D.; Tilmant, A.; Avisse, N.; Harou, J. J.; Gawel, E.; Klauer, B.; Mustafa, D.; Talozi, S.; Sigel, K.

2015-12-01

Our work focuses on development of a multi-agent, hydroeconomic model for purposes of water policy evaluation in Jordan. The model adopts a modular approach, integrating biophysical modules that simulate natural and engineered phenomena with human modules that represent behavior at multiple levels of decision making. The hydrologic modules are developed using spatially-distributed groundwater and surface water models, which are translated into compact simulators for efficient integration into the multi-agent model. For the groundwater model, we adopt a response matrix method approach in which a 3-dimensional MODFLOW model of a complex regional groundwater system is converted into a linear simulator of groundwater response by pre-processing drawdown results from several hundred numerical simulation runs. Surface water models for each major surface water basin in the country are developed in SWAT and similarly translated into simple rainfall-runoff functions for integration with the multi-agent model. The approach balances physically-based, spatially-explicit representation of hydrologic systems with the efficiency required for integration into a complex multi-agent model that is computationally amenable to robust scenario analysis. For the multi-agent model, we explicitly represent human agency at multiple levels of decision making, with agents representing riparian, management, supplier, and water user groups. The agents' decision making models incorporate both rule-based heuristics as well as economic optimization. The model is programmed in Python using Pynsim, a generalizable, open-source object-oriented code framework for modeling network-based water resource systems. The Jordan model is one of the first applications of Pynsim to a real-world water management case study. Preliminary results from a tanker market scenario run through year 2050 are presented in which several salient features of the water system are investigated: competition between urban and private farmer agents, the emergence of a private tanker market, disparities in economic wellbeing to different user groups caused by unique supply conditions, and response of the complex system to various policy interventions.

The assessment of mangrove biomass and carbon in West Africa: a spatially explicit analytical framework

Treesearch

Wenwu Tang; Wenpeng Feng; Meijuan Jia; Jiyang Shi; Huifang Zuo; Carl C. Trettin

2015-01-01

Mangrove forests are highly productive and have large carbon sinks while also providing numerous goods and ecosystem services. However, effective management and conservation of the mangrove forests are often dependent on spatially explicit assessments of the resource. Given the remote and highly dispersed nature of mangroves, estimation of biomass and carbon...

Implicit and Explicit Gender Beliefs in Spatial Ability: Stronger Stereotyping in Boys than Girls.

PubMed

Vander Heyden, Karin M; van Atteveldt, Nienke M; Huizinga, Mariette; Jolles, Jelle

2016-01-01

Sex differences in spatial ability are a seriously debated topic, given the importance of spatial ability for success in the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) and girls' underrepresentation in these domains. In the current study we investigated the presence of stereotypic gender beliefs on spatial ability (i.e., "spatial ability is for boys") in 10- and 12-year-old children. We used both an explicit measure (i.e., a self-report questionnaire) and an implicit measure (i.e., a child IAT). Results of the explicit measure showed that both sexes associated spatial ability with boys, with boys holding more male stereotyped attitudes than girls. On the implicit measure, boys associated spatial ability with boys, while girls were gender-neutral. In addition, we examined the effects of gender beliefs on spatial performance, by experimentally activating gender beliefs within a pretest-instruction-posttest design. We compared three types of instruction: boys are better, girls are better, and no sex differences. No effects of these gender belief instructions were found on children's spatial test performance (i.e., mental rotation and paper folding). The finding that children of this age already have stereotypic beliefs about the spatial capacities of their own sex is important, as these beliefs may influence children's choices for spatial leisure activities and educational tracks in the STEM domain.

Implicit and Explicit Gender Beliefs in Spatial Ability: Stronger Stereotyping in Boys than Girls

PubMed Central

Vander Heyden, Karin M.; van Atteveldt, Nienke M.; Huizinga, Mariette; Jolles, Jelle

2016-01-01

Sex differences in spatial ability are a seriously debated topic, given the importance of spatial ability for success in the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) and girls' underrepresentation in these domains. In the current study we investigated the presence of stereotypic gender beliefs on spatial ability (i.e., “spatial ability is for boys”) in 10- and 12-year-old children. We used both an explicit measure (i.e., a self-report questionnaire) and an implicit measure (i.e., a child IAT). Results of the explicit measure showed that both sexes associated spatial ability with boys, with boys holding more male stereotyped attitudes than girls. On the implicit measure, boys associated spatial ability with boys, while girls were gender-neutral. In addition, we examined the effects of gender beliefs on spatial performance, by experimentally activating gender beliefs within a pretest—instruction—posttest design. We compared three types of instruction: boys are better, girls are better, and no sex differences. No effects of these gender belief instructions were found on children's spatial test performance (i.e., mental rotation and paper folding). The finding that children of this age already have stereotypic beliefs about the spatial capacities of their own sex is important, as these beliefs may influence children's choices for spatial leisure activities and educational tracks in the STEM domain. PMID:27507956

Visual sensory networks and effective information transfer in animal groups.

PubMed

Strandburg-Peshkin, Ariana; Twomey, Colin R; Bode, Nikolai W F; Kao, Albert B; Katz, Yael; Ioannou, Christos C; Rosenthal, Sara B; Torney, Colin J; Wu, Hai Shan; Levin, Simon A; Couzin, Iain D

2013-09-09

Social transmission of information is vital for many group-living animals, allowing coordination of motion and effective response to complex environments. Revealing the interaction networks underlying information flow within these groups is a central challenge. Previous work has modeled interactions between individuals based directly on their relative spatial positions: each individual is considered to interact with all neighbors within a fixed distance (metric range), a fixed number of nearest neighbors (topological range), a 'shell' of near neighbors (Voronoi range), or some combination (Figure 1A). However, conclusive evidence to support these assumptions is lacking. Here, we employ a novel approach that considers individual movement decisions to be based explicitly on the sensory information available to the organism. In other words, we consider that while spatial relations do inform interactions between individuals, they do so indirectly, through individuals' detection of sensory cues. We reconstruct computationally the visual field of each individual throughout experiments designed to investigate information propagation within fish schools (golden shiners, Notemigonus crysoleucas). Explicitly considering visual sensing allows us to more accurately predict the propagation of behavioral change in these groups during leadership events. Furthermore, we find that structural properties of visual interaction networks differ markedly from those of metric and topological counterparts, suggesting that previous assumptions may not appropriately reflect information flow in animal groups. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling hen harrier dynamics to inform human-wildlife conflict resolution: a spatially-realistic, individual-based approach.

PubMed

Heinonen, Johannes P M; Palmer, Stephen C F; Redpath, Steve M; Travis, Justin M J

2014-01-01

Individual-based models have gained popularity in ecology, and enable simultaneous incorporation of spatial explicitness and population dynamic processes to understand spatio-temporal patterns of populations. We introduce an individual-based model for understanding and predicting spatial hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) population dynamics in Great Britain. The model uses a landscape with habitat, prey and game management indices. The hen harrier population was initialised according to empirical census estimates for 1988/89 and simulated until 2030, and predictions for 1998, 2004 and 2010 were compared to empirical census estimates for respective years. The model produced a good qualitative match to overall trends between 1989 and 2010. Parameter explorations revealed relatively high elasticity in particular to demographic parameters such as juvenile male mortality. This highlights the need for robust parameter estimates from empirical research. There are clearly challenges for replication of real-world population trends, but this model provides a useful tool for increasing understanding of drivers of hen harrier dynamics and focusing research efforts in order to inform conflict management decisions.

Modelling Hen Harrier Dynamics to Inform Human-Wildlife Conflict Resolution: A Spatially-Realistic, Individual-Based Approach

PubMed Central

Heinonen, Johannes P. M.; Palmer, Stephen C. F.; Redpath, Steve M.; Travis, Justin M. J.

2014-01-01

Individual-based models have gained popularity in ecology, and enable simultaneous incorporation of spatial explicitness and population dynamic processes to understand spatio-temporal patterns of populations. We introduce an individual-based model for understanding and predicting spatial hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) population dynamics in Great Britain. The model uses a landscape with habitat, prey and game management indices. The hen harrier population was initialised according to empirical census estimates for 1988/89 and simulated until 2030, and predictions for 1998, 2004 and 2010 were compared to empirical census estimates for respective years. The model produced a good qualitative match to overall trends between 1989 and 2010. Parameter explorations revealed relatively high elasticity in particular to demographic parameters such as juvenile male mortality. This highlights the need for robust parameter estimates from empirical research. There are clearly challenges for replication of real-world population trends, but this model provides a useful tool for increasing understanding of drivers of hen harrier dynamics and focusing research efforts in order to inform conflict management decisions. PMID:25405860

Neural correlates of decision making with explicit information about probabilities and incentives in elderly healthy subjects.

PubMed

Labudda, Kirsten; Woermann, Friedrich G; Mertens, Markus; Pohlmann-Eden, Bernd; Markowitsch, Hans J; Brand, Matthias

2008-06-01

Recent functional neuroimaging and lesion studies demonstrate the involvement of the orbitofrontal/ventromedial prefrontal cortex as a key structure in decision making processes. This region seems to be particularly crucial when contingencies between options and consequences are unknown but have to be learned by the use of feedback following previous decisions (decision making under ambiguity). However, little is known about the neural correlates of decision making under risk conditions in which information about probabilities and potential outcomes is given. In the present study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging to measure blood-oxygenation-level-dependent (BOLD) responses in 12 subjects during a decision making task. This task provided explicit information about probabilities and associated potential incentives. The responses were compared to BOLD signals in a control condition without information about incentives. In contrast to previous decision making studies, we completely removed the outcome phase following a decision to exclude the potential influence of feedback previously received on current decisions. The results indicate that the integration of information about probabilities and incentives leads to activations within the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, the posterior parietal lobe, the anterior cingulate and the right lingual gyrus. We assume that this pattern of activation is due to the involvement of executive functions, conflict detection mechanisms and arithmetic operations during the deliberation phase of decisional processes that are based on explicit information.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics and Value of Nature-Based Recreation, Estimated via Social Media.

PubMed

Sonter, Laura J; Watson, Keri B; Wood, Spencer A; Ricketts, Taylor H

2016-01-01

Conserved lands provide multiple ecosystem services, including opportunities for nature-based recreation. Managing this service requires understanding the landscape attributes underpinning its provision, and how changes in land management affect its contribution to human wellbeing over time. However, evidence from both spatially explicit and temporally dynamic analyses is scarce, often due to data limitations. In this study, we investigated nature-based recreation within conserved lands in Vermont, USA. We used geotagged photographs uploaded to the photo-sharing website Flickr to quantify visits by in-state and out-of-state visitors, and we multiplied visits by mean trip expenditures to show that conserved lands contributed US $1.8 billion (US $0.18-20.2 at 95% confidence) to Vermont's tourism industry between 2007 and 2014. We found eight landscape attributes explained the pattern of visits to conserved lands; visits were higher in larger conserved lands, with less forest cover, greater trail density and more opportunities for snow sports. Some of these attributes differed from those found in other locations, but all aligned with our understanding of recreation in Vermont. We also found that using temporally static models to inform conservation decisions may have perverse outcomes for nature-based recreation. For example, static models suggest conserved land with less forest cover receive more visits, but temporally dynamic models suggest clearing forests decreases, rather than increases, visits to these sites. Our results illustrate the importance of understanding both the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecosystem services for conservation decision-making.

Getting on the same page: Communication, patient involvement and shared understanding of "decisions" in oncology.

PubMed

Leppin, Aaron L; Kunneman, Marleen; Hathaway, Julie; Fernandez, Cara; Montori, Victor M; Tilburt, Jon C

2018-02-01

Patients and clinicians do not often agree on whether a decision has been made about cancer care. This could be explained by factors related to communication quality and/or the type of decision being made. We used a self-developed coding scheme to code a random sample of 128 encounters in which patients and clinicians either agreed (n=64) or disagreed (n=64) that a cancer care decision was made and tested for associations between concordance and key communication behaviours. We also identified and characterized cancer care decisions by topic and level of patient involvement and looked for trends. We identified 378 cancer care decisions across 128 encounters. Explicit decisions were most commonly made about topics wherein decision control could be easily delegated to a clear and present expert (eg either the patient or the clinician). Related to this, level of patient involvement varied significantly by decision topic. Explicit decisions were rarely made in an observable way about social, non-clinical or self-management related topics, although patients and clinicians both reported having made a cancer care decision in encounters where no decisions were observed. We found no association between communication behaviours and concordance in our sample. What counts as a "decision" in cancer care may be constructed within disparate social roles that leave many agendas unaddressed and decisions unmade. Changing the content of conversations to encourage explicit decisions about self-management and life context-related topics may have greater value in enabling shared understanding than promoting communication behaviours among already high-performing communicators. © 2017 The Authors Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Spatially-Explicit Technique for Evaluation of Alternative ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Ecosystems contribute to maintaining human well-being directly through provision of goods and indirectly through provision of services that support clean water, clean air, flood protection and atmospheric stability. Transparently accounting for biophysical attributes from which humans derive benefit is essential to support dialog among the public, resource managers, decision makers, and scientists. We analyzed the potential ecosystem goods and services production from alternative future land use scenarios in the US Tampa Bay region. Ecosystem goods and service metrics included carbon sequestration, nitrogen removal, air pollutant removal, and stormwater retention. Each scenario was compared to a 2006 baseline land use. Estimated production of denitrification services changed by 28% and carbon sequestration by 20% between 2006 and the “business as usual” scenario. An alternative scenario focused on “natural resource protection” resulted in an estimated 9% loss in air pollution removal. Stormwater retention was estimated to change 18% from 2006 to 2060 projections. Cost effective areas for conservation, almost 1588 ha, beyond current conservation lands, were identified by comparing ecosystem goods and services production to assessed land values. Our ecosystem goods and services approach provides a simple and quantitative way to examine a more complete set of potential outcomes from land use decisions. This study demonstrates an approach for spatially expli

Spatial Differentiation of Arable Land and Permanent Grasslands to Improve a Regional Land Management Model for Nutrient Balancing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez Giménez, M.; Della Peruta, R.; de Jong, R.; Keller, A.; Schaepman, M. E.

2015-12-01

Agroecosystems play an important role providing economic and ecosystem services, which directly impact society. Inappropriate land use and unsustainable agricultural management with associated nutrient cycles can jeopardize important soil functions such as food production, livestock feeding and conservation of biodiversity. The objective of this study was to integrate remotely sensed land cover information into a regional Land Management Model (LMM) to improve the assessment of spatial explicit nutrient balances for agroecosystems. Remotely sensed data as well as an optimized parameter set contributed to feed the LMM providing a better spatial allocation of agricultural data aggregated at farm level. The integration of land use information in the land allocation process relied predominantly on three factors: i) spatial resolution, ii) classification accuracy and iii) parcels definition. The best-input parameter combination resulted in two different land cover classifications with overall accuracies of 98%, improving the LMM performance by 16% as compared to using non-spatially explicit input. Firstly, the use of spatial explicit information improved the spatial allocation output resulting in a pattern that better followed parcel boundaries (Figure 1). Second, the high classification accuracies ensured consistency between the datasets used. Third, the use of a suitable spatial unit to define the parcels boundaries influenced the model in terms of computational time and the amount of farmland allocated. We conclude that the combined use of remote sensing (RS) data with the LMM has the potential to provide highly accurate information of spatial explicit nutrient balances that are crucial for policy options concerning sustainable management of agricultural soils. Figure 1. Details of the spatial pattern obtained: a) Using only the farm census data, b) using also land use information. Framed in black in the left image (a), examples of artifacts that disappeared when using land use information (right image, b). Colors represent different ownership.

Priority setting in the provincial health services authority: survey of key decision makers

PubMed Central

Teng, Flora; Mitton, Craig; MacKenzie, Jennifer

2007-01-01

Background In recent years, decision makers in Canada and elsewhere have expressed a desire for more explicit, evidence-based approaches to priority setting. To achieve this aim within health care organizations, knowledge of both the organizational context and stakeholder attitudes towards priority setting are required. The current work adds to a limited yet growing body of international literature describing priority setting practices in health organizations. Methods A qualitative study was conducted using in-depth, face-to-face interviews with 25 key decision makers of the Provincial Health Services Authority (PHSA) of British Columbia. Major themes and sub-themes were identified through content analysis. Results Priorities were described by decision makers as being set in an ad hoc manner, with resources generally allocated along historical lines. Participants identified the Strategic Plan and a strong research base as strengths of the organization. The main areas for improvement were a desire to have a more transparent process for priority setting, a need to develop a culture which supports explicit priority setting, and a focus on fairness in decision making. Barriers to an explicit allocation process included the challenge of providing specialized services for disparate patient groups, and a lack of formal training in priority setting amongst decision makers. Conclusion This study identified factors important to understanding organizational context and informed next steps for explicit priority setting for a provincial health authority. While the PHSA is unique in its organizational structure in Canada, lessons about priority setting should be transferable to other contexts. PMID:17565691

Implicit representations of space after bilateral parietal lobe damage.

PubMed

Kim, M S; Robertson, L C

2001-11-15

There is substantial evidence that the primate cortex is grossly divided into two functional streams, an occipital-parietal-frontal pathway that processes "where" and an occipital-temporal-frontal pathway that processes "what" (Ungerleider and Mishkin, 1982). In humans, bilateral occipital-parietal damage results in severe spatial deficits and a neuropsychological disorder known as Balint's syndrome in which a single object can be perceived (simultanagnosia) but its location is unknown (Balint, 1995). The data reported here demonstrate that spatial information for visual features that cannot be explicitly located is represented normally below the level of spatial awareness even with large occipital-parietal lesions. They also demonstrate that parietal damage does not affect preattentive spatial coding of feature locations or complex spatial relationships between parts of a stimulus despite explicit spatial deficits and simultanagnosia.

Minimizing Erosion and Agro-Pollutants Transport from Furrow Irrigated Fields to the Nearby Water Body Using Spatially-Explicit Agent Based Model and Decision Optimization Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghoveisi, H.; Al Dughaishi, U.; Kiker, G.

2017-12-01

Maintaining water quality in agricultural watersheds is a worldwide challenge, especially where furrow irrigation is being practiced. The Yakima River Basin watershed in south central Washington State, (USA) is an example of these impacted areas with elevated load of sediments and other agricultural products due to runoff from furrow-irrigated fields. Within the Yakima basin, the Granger Drain watershed (area of 75 km2) is particularly challenged in this regard with more than 400 flood-irrigated individual parcels (area of 21 km2) growing a variety of crops from maize to grapes. Alternatives for improving water quality from furrow-irrigated parcels include vegetated filter strip (VFS) implementation, furrow water application efficiency, polyacrylamide (PAM) application and irrigation scheduling. These alternatives were simulated separately and in combinations to explore potential Best Management Practices (BMPs) for runoff-related-pollution reduction in a spatially explicit, agent based modeling system (QnD:GrangerDrain). Two regulatory scenarios were tested to BMP adoption within individual parcels. A blanket-style regulatory scenario simulated a total of 60 BMP combinations implemented in all 409 furrow-irrigated parcels. A second regulatory scenario simulated the BMPs in 119 furrow-irrigated parcels designated as "hotspots" based on a standard 12 Mg ha-1 seasonal sediment load. The simulated cumulative runoff and sediment loading from all BMP alternatives were ranked using Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), specifically the Stochastic Multi-Attribute Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) method. Several BMP combinations proved successful in reducing loads below a 25 NTU (91 mg L-1) regulatory sediment concentration. The QnD:GrangerDrain simulations and subsequent MCDA ranking revealed that the BMP combinations of 5 m-VFS and high furrow water efficiency were highly ranked alternatives for both the blanket and hotspot scenarios.

Sleep Increases Explicit Solutions and Reduces Intuitive Judgments of Semantic Coherence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zander, Thea; Volz, Kirsten G.; Born, Jan; Diekelmann, Susanne

2017-01-01

Sleep fosters the generation of explicit knowledge. Whether sleep also benefits implicit intuitive decisions about underlying patterns is unclear. We examined sleep's role in explicit and intuitive semantic coherence judgments. Participants encoded sets of three words and after a sleep or wake period were required to judge the potential…

Uncertainty in spatially explicit animal dispersal models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mooij, Wolf M.; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2003-01-01

Uncertainty in estimates of survival of dispersing animals is a vexing difficulty in conservation biology. The current notion is that this uncertainty decreases the usefulness of spatially explicit population models in particular. We examined this problem by comparing dispersal models of three levels of complexity: (1) an event-based binomial model that considers only the occurrence of mortality or arrival, (2) a temporally explicit exponential model that employs mortality and arrival rates, and (3) a spatially explicit grid-walk model that simulates the movement of animals through an artificial landscape. Each model was fitted to the same set of field data. A first objective of the paper is to illustrate how the maximum-likelihood method can be used in all three cases to estimate the means and confidence limits for the relevant model parameters, given a particular set of data on dispersal survival. Using this framework we show that the structure of the uncertainty for all three models is strikingly similar. In fact, the results of our unified approach imply that spatially explicit dispersal models, which take advantage of information on landscape details, suffer less from uncertainly than do simpler models. Moreover, we show that the proposed strategy of model development safeguards one from error propagation in these more complex models. Finally, our approach shows that all models related to animal dispersal, ranging from simple to complex, can be related in a hierarchical fashion, so that the various approaches to modeling such dispersal can be viewed from a unified perspective.

NLCD 2011 database

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

National Land Cover Database 2011 (NLCD 2011) is the most recent national land cover product created by the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium. NLCD 2011 provides - for the first time - the capability to assess wall-to-wall, spatially explicit, national land cover changes and trends across the United States from 2001 to 2011. As with two previous NLCD land cover products NLCD 2011 keeps the same 16-class land cover classification scheme that has been applied consistently across the United States at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. NLCD 2011 is based primarily on a decision-tree classification of circa 2011 Landsat satellite data. This dataset is associated with the following publication:Homer, C., J. Dewitz, L. Yang, S. Jin, P. Danielson, G. Xian, J. Coulston, N. Herold, J. Wickham , and K. Megown. Completion of the 2011 National Land Cover Database for the Conterminous United States – Representing a Decade of Land Cover Change Information. PHOTOGRAMMETRIC ENGINEERING AND REMOTE SENSING. American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Bethesda, MD, USA, 81(0): 345-354, (2015).

THE IMPACT OF RACISM ON CLINICIAN COGNITION, BEHAVIOR, AND CLINICAL DECISION MAKING

PubMed Central

van Ryn, Michelle; Burgess, Diana J.; Dovidio, John F.; Phelan, Sean M.; Saha, Somnath; Malat, Jennifer; Griffin, Joan M.; Fu, Steven S.; Perry, Sylvia

2014-01-01

Over the past two decades, thousands of studies have demonstrated that Blacks receive lower quality medical care than Whites, independent of disease status, setting, insurance, and other clinically relevant factors. Despite this, there has been little progress towards eradicating these inequities. Almost a decade ago we proposed a conceptual model identifying mechanisms through which clinicians’ behavior, cognition, and decision making might be influenced by implicit racial biases and explicit racial stereotypes, and thereby contribute to racial inequities in care. Empirical evidence has supported many of these hypothesized mechanisms, demonstrating that White medical care clinicians: (1) hold negative implicit racial biases and explicit racial stereotypes, (2) have implicit racial biases that persist independently of and in contrast to their explicit (conscious) racial attitudes, and (3) can be influenced by racial bias in their clinical decision making and behavior during encounters with Black patients. This paper applies evidence from several disciplines to further specify our original model and elaborate on the ways racism can interact with cognitive biases to affect clinicians’ behavior and decisions and in turn, patient behavior and decisions. We then highlight avenues for intervention and make specific recommendations to medical care and grant-making organizations. PMID:24761152

Follow your nose: Implicit spatial processing within the chemosensory systems.

PubMed

Wudarczyk, Olga A; Habel, Ute; Turetsky, Bruce I; Gur, Raquel E; Kellermann, Thilo; Schneider, Frank; Moessnang, Carolin

2016-11-01

Although most studies agree that humans cannot smell in stereo, it was recently suggested that olfactory localization is possible when assessed implicitly. In a spatial cueing paradigm, lateralized olfactory cues impaired the detection of congruently presented visual targets, an effect contrary to the typical facilitation observed in other sensory domains. Here, we examined the specificity and the robustness of this finding by studying implicit localization abilities in another chemosensory system and by accounting for possible confounds in a modified paradigm. Sixty participants completed a spatial cueing task along with an explicit localization task, using trigeminal (Experiment 1) and olfactory (Experiment 2) stimuli. A control task was implemented to control for residual somatosensory stimulation (Experiment 3). In the trigeminal experiment, stimuli were localized with high accuracy on the explicit level, while the cueing effect in form of facilitation was limited to response accuracy. In the olfactory experiment, responses were slowed by congruent cues on the implicit level, while no explicit localization was observed. Our results point to the robustness of the olfactory interference effect, corroborating the implicit-explicit dissociation of olfactory localization, and challenging the view that humans lost the ability to extract spatial information from smell. The absence of a similar interference for trigeminal cues suggests distinct implicit spatial processing mechanisms within the chemosensory systems. Moreover, the lack of a typical facilitation effect in the trigeminal domain points to important differences from spatial information processing in other, nonchemosensory domains. The possible mechanisms driving the effects are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

The Construction of Visual-spatial Situation Models in Children's Reading and Their Relation to Reading Comprehension

PubMed Central

Barnes, Marcia A.; Raghubar, Kimberly P.; Faulkner, Heather; Denton, Carolyn A.

2014-01-01

Readers construct mental models of situations described by text to comprehend what they read, updating these situation models based on explicitly described and inferred information about causal, temporal, and spatial relations. Fluent adult readers update their situation models while reading narrative text based in part on spatial location information that is consistent with the perspective of the protagonist. The current study investigates whether children update spatial situation models in a similar way, whether there are age-related changes in children's formation of spatial situation models during reading, and whether measures of the ability to construct and update spatial situation models are predictive of reading comprehension. Typically-developing children from ages 9 through 16 years (n=81) were familiarized with a physical model of a marketplace. Then the model was covered, and children read stories that described the movement of a protagonist through the marketplace and were administered items requiring memory for both explicitly stated and inferred information about the character's movements. Accuracy of responses and response times were evaluated. Results indicated that: (a) location and object information during reading appeared to be activated and updated not simply from explicit text-based information but from a mental model of the real world situation described by the text; (b) this pattern showed no age-related differences; and (c) the ability to update the situation model of the text based on inferred information, but not explicitly stated information, was uniquely predictive of reading comprehension after accounting for word decoding. PMID:24315376

A watershed-based spatially-explicit demonstration of an integrated environmental modeling framework for ecosystem services in the Coal River Basin (WV, USA)

Treesearch

John M. Johnston; Mahion C. Barber; Kurt Wolfe; Mike Galvin; Mike Cyterski; Rajbir Parmar; Luis Suarez

2016-01-01

We demonstrate a spatially-explicit regional assessment of current condition of aquatic ecoservices in the Coal River Basin (CRB), with limited sensitivity analysis for the atmospheric contaminant mercury. The integrated modeling framework (IMF) forecasts water quality and quantity, habitat suitability for aquatic biota, fish biomasses, population densities, ...

Cohen's Kappa and classification table metrics 2.0: An ArcView 3.x extension for accuracy assessment of spatially explicit models

Treesearch

Jeff Jenness; J. Judson Wynne

2005-01-01

In the field of spatially explicit modeling, well-developed accuracy assessment methodologies are often poorly applied. Deriving model accuracy metrics have been possible for decades, but these calculations were made by hand or with the use of a spreadsheet application. Accuracy assessments may be useful for: (1) ascertaining the quality of a model; (2) improving model...

Preserved memory-based orienting of attention with impaired explicit memory in healthy ageing

PubMed Central

Salvato, Gerardo; Patai, Eva Z.; Nobre, Anna C.

2016-01-01

It is increasingly recognised that spatial contextual long-term memory (LTM) prepares neural activity for guiding visuo-spatial attention in a proactive manner. In the current study, we investigated whether the decline in explicit memory observed in healthy ageing would compromise this mechanism. We compared the behavioural performance of younger and older participants on learning new contextual memories, on orienting visual attention based on these learnt contextual associations, and on explicit recall of contextual memories. We found a striking dissociation between older versus younger participants in the relationship between the ability to retrieve contextual memories versus the ability to use these to guide attention to enhance performance on a target-detection task. Older participants showed significant deficits in the explicit retrieval task, but their behavioural benefits from memory-based orienting of attention were equivalent to those in young participants. Furthermore, memory-based orienting correlated significantly with explicit contextual LTM in younger adults but not in older adults. These results suggest that explicit memory deficits in ageing might not compromise initial perception and encoding of events. Importantly, the results also shed light on the mechanisms of memory-guided attention, suggesting that explicit contextual memories are not necessary. PMID:26649914

Spatial Patterns in Alternative States and Thresholds: A Missing Link for Management of Landscapes?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The detection of threshold dynamics (and other dynamics of interest) would benefit from explicit representations of spatial patterns of disturbance, spatial dependence in responses to disturbance, and the spatial structure of feedbacks in the design of monitoring and management strategies. Spatially...

On the Nexus of the Spatial Dynamics of Global Urbanization and the Age of the City

PubMed Central

Scheuer, Sebastian; Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

2016-01-01

A number of concepts exist regarding how urbanization can be described as a process. Understanding this process that affects billions of people and its future development in a spatial manner is imperative to address related issues such as human quality of life. In the focus of spatially explicit studies on urbanization is typically a city, a particular urban region, an agglomeration. However, gaps remain in spatially explicit global models. This paper addresses that issue by examining the spatial dynamics of urban areas over time, for a full coverage of the world. The presented model identifies past, present and potential future hotspots of urbanization as a function of an urban area's spatial variation and age, whose relation could be depicted both as a proxy and as a path of urban development. PMID:27490199

On the Nexus of the Spatial Dynamics of Global Urbanization and the Age of the City.

PubMed

Scheuer, Sebastian; Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

2016-01-01

A number of concepts exist regarding how urbanization can be described as a process. Understanding this process that affects billions of people and its future development in a spatial manner is imperative to address related issues such as human quality of life. In the focus of spatially explicit studies on urbanization is typically a city, a particular urban region, an agglomeration. However, gaps remain in spatially explicit global models. This paper addresses that issue by examining the spatial dynamics of urban areas over time, for a full coverage of the world. The presented model identifies past, present and potential future hotspots of urbanization as a function of an urban area's spatial variation and age, whose relation could be depicted both as a proxy and as a path of urban development.

A work-centered cognitively based architecture for decision support: the work-centered infomediary layer (WIL) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zachary, Wayne; Eggleston, Robert; Donmoyer, Jason; Schremmer, Serge

2003-09-01

Decision-making is strongly shaped and influenced by the work context in which decisions are embedded. This suggests that decision support needs to be anchored by a model (implicit or explicit) of the work process, in contrast to traditional approaches that anchor decision support to either context free decision models (e.g., utility theory) or to detailed models of the external (e.g., battlespace) environment. An architecture for cognitively-based, work centered decision support called the Work-centered Informediary Layer (WIL) is presented. WIL separates decision support into three overall processes that build and dynamically maintain an explicit context model, use the context model to identify opportunities for decision support and tailor generic decision-support strategies to the current context and offer them to the system-user/decision-maker. The generic decision support strategies include such things as activity/attention aiding, decision process structuring, work performance support (selective, contextual automation), explanation/ elaboration, infosphere data retrieval, and what if/action-projection and visualization. A WIL-based application is a work-centered decision support layer that provides active support without intent inferencing, and that is cognitively based without requiring classical cognitive task analyses. Example WIL applications are detailed and discussed.

Integrated planning and spatial evaluation of megasite remediation and reuse options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schädler, Sebastian; Morio, Maximilian; Bartke, Stephan; Finkel, Michael

2012-01-01

Redevelopment of large contaminated brownfields (megasites) is often hampered by a lack of communication and harmonization among diverse stakeholders with potentially conflicting interests. Decision support is required to provide integrative yet transparent evaluation of often complex spatial information to stakeholders with different areas of expertise. It is considered crucial for successful redevelopment to identify a shared vision of how the respective contaminated site could be remediated and redeveloped. We describe a framework of assessment methods and models that analyzes and visualizes site- and land use-specific spatial information at the screening level, with the aim to support the derivation of recommendable land use layouts and to initiate further and more detailed planning. The framework integrates a GIS-based identification of areas to be remediated, an estimation of associated clean-up costs, a spatially explicit market value appraisal, and an assessment of the planned future land use's contribution to sustainable urban and regional development. Case study results show that derived options are potentially favorable in both a sustainability and an economic sense and that iterative re-planning is facilitated by the evaluation and visualization of economic, ecological and socio-economic aspects. The framework supports an efficient early judgment about whether and how abandoned land may be assigned a sustainable and marketable land use.

Radar orthogonality and radar length in Finsler and metric spacetime geometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfeifer, Christian

2014-09-01

The radar experiment connects the geometry of spacetime with an observers measurement of spatial length. We investigate the radar experiment on Finsler spacetimes which leads to a general definition of radar orthogonality and radar length. The directions radar orthogonal to an observer form the spatial equal time surface an observer experiences and the radar length is the physical length the observer associates to spatial objects. We demonstrate these concepts on a forth order polynomial Finsler spacetime geometry which may emerge from area metric or premetric linear electrodynamics or in quantum gravity phenomenology. In an explicit generalization of Minkowski spacetime geometry we derive the deviation from the Euclidean spatial length measure in an observers rest frame explicitly.

A distribution-oriented approach to support landscape connectivity for ecologically distinct bird species.

PubMed

Herrera, José M; Alagador, Diogo; Salgueiro, Pedro; Mira, António

2018-01-01

Managing landscape connectivity is a widely recognized overarching strategy for conserving biodiversity in human-impacted landscapes. However, planning the conservation and management of landscape connectivity of multiple and ecologically distinct species is still challenging. Here we provide a spatially-explicit framework which identifies and prioritizes connectivity conservation and restoration actions for species with distinct habitat affinities. Specifically, our study system comprised three groups of common bird species, forest-specialists, farmland-specialists, and generalists, populating a highly heterogeneous agricultural countryside in the southwestern Iberian Peninsula. We first performed a comprehensive analysis of the environmental variables underlying the distributional patterns of each bird species to reveal generalities in their guild-specific responses to landscape structure. Then, we identified sites which could be considered pivotal in maintaining current levels of landscape connectivity for the three bird guilds simultaneously, as well as the number and location of sites that need to be restored to maximize connectivity levels. Interestingly, we found that a small number of sites defined the shortest connectivity paths for the three bird guilds simultaneously, and were therefore considered key for conservation. Moreover, an even smaller number of sites were identified as critical to expand the landscape connectivity at maximum for the regional bird assemblage as a whole. Our spatially-explicit framework can provide valuable decision-making support to conservation practitioners aiming to identify key connectivity and restoration sites, a particularly urgent task in rapidly changing landscapes such as agroecosystems.

Using stylized agent-based models for population-environment research: A case study from the Galápagos Islands

PubMed Central

Miller, Brian W.; Breckheimer, Ian; McCleary, Amy L.; Guzmán-Ramirez, Liza; Caplow, Susan C.; Jones-Smith, Jessica C.; Walsh, Stephen J.

2010-01-01

Agent Based Models (ABMs) are powerful tools for population-environment research but are subject to trade-offs between model complexity and abstraction. This study strikes a compromise between abstract and highly specified ABMs by designing a spatially explicit, stylized ABM and using it to explore policy scenarios in a setting that is facing substantial conservation and development challenges. Specifically, we present an ABM that reflects key Land Use / Land Cover (LULC) dynamics and livelihood decisions on Isabela Island in the Galápagos Archipelago of Ecuador. We implement the model using the NetLogo software platform, a free program that requires relatively little programming experience. The landscape is composed of a satellite-derived distribution of a problematic invasive species (common guava) and a stylized representation of the Galápagos National Park, the community of Puerto Villamil, the agricultural zone, and the marine area. The agent module is based on publicly available data and household interviews, and represents the primary livelihoods of the population in the Galápagos Islands – tourism, fisheries, and agriculture. We use the model to enact hypothetical agricultural subsidy scenarios aimed at controlling invasive guava and assess the resulting population and land cover dynamics. Findings suggest that spatially explicit, stylized ABMs have considerable utility, particularly during preliminary stages of research, as platforms for (1) sharpening conceptualizations of population-environment systems, (2) testing alternative scenarios, and (3) uncovering critical data gaps. PMID:20539752

Linking river management to species conservation using dynamic landscape scale models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Freeman, Mary C.; Buell, Gary R.; Hay, Lauren E.; Hughes, W. Brian; Jacobson, Robert B.; Jones, John W.; Jones, S.A.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Odom, Kenneth R.; Peterson, James T.; Riley, Jeffrey W.; Schindler, J. Stephen; Shea, C.; Weaver, J.D.

2013-01-01

Efforts to conserve stream and river biota could benefit from tools that allow managers to evaluate landscape-scale changes in species distributions in response to water management decisions. We present a framework and methods for integrating hydrology, geographic context and metapopulation processes to simulate effects of changes in streamflow on fish occupancy dynamics across a landscape of interconnected stream segments. We illustrate this approach using a 482 km2 catchment in the southeastern US supporting 50 or more stream fish species. A spatially distributed, deterministic and physically based hydrologic model is used to simulate daily streamflow for sub-basins composing the catchment. We use geographic data to characterize stream segments with respect to channel size, confinement, position and connectedness within the stream network. Simulated streamflow dynamics are then applied to model fish metapopulation dynamics in stream segments, using hypothesized effects of streamflow magnitude and variability on population processes, conditioned by channel characteristics. The resulting time series simulate spatially explicit, annual changes in species occurrences or assemblage metrics (e.g. species richness) across the catchment as outcomes of management scenarios. Sensitivity analyses using alternative, plausible links between streamflow components and metapopulation processes, or allowing for alternative modes of fish dispersal, demonstrate large effects of ecological uncertainty on model outcomes and highlight needed research and monitoring. Nonetheless, with uncertainties explicitly acknowledged, dynamic, landscape-scale simulations may prove useful for quantitatively comparing river management alternatives with respect to species conservation.

A distribution-oriented approach to support landscape connectivity for ecologically distinct bird species

PubMed Central

Salgueiro, Pedro; Mira, António

2018-01-01

Managing landscape connectivity is a widely recognized overarching strategy for conserving biodiversity in human-impacted landscapes. However, planning the conservation and management of landscape connectivity of multiple and ecologically distinct species is still challenging. Here we provide a spatially-explicit framework which identifies and prioritizes connectivity conservation and restoration actions for species with distinct habitat affinities. Specifically, our study system comprised three groups of common bird species, forest-specialists, farmland-specialists, and generalists, populating a highly heterogeneous agricultural countryside in the southwestern Iberian Peninsula. We first performed a comprehensive analysis of the environmental variables underlying the distributional patterns of each bird species to reveal generalities in their guild-specific responses to landscape structure. Then, we identified sites which could be considered pivotal in maintaining current levels of landscape connectivity for the three bird guilds simultaneously, as well as the number and location of sites that need to be restored to maximize connectivity levels. Interestingly, we found that a small number of sites defined the shortest connectivity paths for the three bird guilds simultaneously, and were therefore considered key for conservation. Moreover, an even smaller number of sites were identified as critical to expand the landscape connectivity at maximum for the regional bird assemblage as a whole. Our spatially-explicit framework can provide valuable decision-making support to conservation practitioners aiming to identify key connectivity and restoration sites, a particularly urgent task in rapidly changing landscapes such as agroecosystems. PMID:29641610

Using stylized agent-based models for population-environment research: A case study from the Galápagos Islands.

PubMed

Miller, Brian W; Breckheimer, Ian; McCleary, Amy L; Guzmán-Ramirez, Liza; Caplow, Susan C; Jones-Smith, Jessica C; Walsh, Stephen J

2010-05-01

Agent Based Models (ABMs) are powerful tools for population-environment research but are subject to trade-offs between model complexity and abstraction. This study strikes a compromise between abstract and highly specified ABMs by designing a spatially explicit, stylized ABM and using it to explore policy scenarios in a setting that is facing substantial conservation and development challenges. Specifically, we present an ABM that reflects key Land Use / Land Cover (LULC) dynamics and livelihood decisions on Isabela Island in the Galápagos Archipelago of Ecuador. We implement the model using the NetLogo software platform, a free program that requires relatively little programming experience. The landscape is composed of a satellite-derived distribution of a problematic invasive species (common guava) and a stylized representation of the Galápagos National Park, the community of Puerto Villamil, the agricultural zone, and the marine area. The agent module is based on publicly available data and household interviews, and represents the primary livelihoods of the population in the Galápagos Islands - tourism, fisheries, and agriculture. We use the model to enact hypothetical agricultural subsidy scenarios aimed at controlling invasive guava and assess the resulting population and land cover dynamics. Findings suggest that spatially explicit, stylized ABMs have considerable utility, particularly during preliminary stages of research, as platforms for (1) sharpening conceptualizations of population-environment systems, (2) testing alternative scenarios, and (3) uncovering critical data gaps.

Integrating remote sensing and spatially explicit epidemiological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finger, Flavio; Knox, Allyn; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Bompangue, Didier; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

2015-04-01

Spatially explicit epidemiological models are a crucial tool for the prediction of epidemiological patterns in time and space as well as for the allocation of health care resources. In addition they can provide valuable information about epidemiological processes and allow for the identification of environmental drivers of the disease spread. Most epidemiological models rely on environmental data as inputs. They can either be measured in the field by the means of conventional instruments or using remote sensing techniques to measure suitable proxies of the variables of interest. The later benefit from several advantages over conventional methods, including data availability, which can be an issue especially in developing, and spatial as well as temporal resolution of the data, which is particularly crucial for spatially explicit models. Here we present the case study of a spatially explicit, semi-mechanistic model applied to recurring cholera outbreaks in the Lake Kivu area (Democratic Republic of the Congo). The model describes the cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of the lake. Remotely sensed datasets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers. Human mobility and its effect on the disease spread is also taken into account. Several model configurations are tested on a data set of reported cases. The best models, accounting for different environmental drivers, and selected using the Akaike information criterion, are formally compared via cross validation. The best performing model accounts for seasonality, El Niño Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility.

A Global and Spatially Explicit Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production and Consumptive Water Use

PubMed Central

Liu, Junguo; Folberth, Christian; Yang, Hong; Röckström, Johan; Abbaspour, Karim; Zehnder, Alexander J. B.

2013-01-01

Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term) and the 2090s (long term), respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental) but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell). Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security. PMID:23460901

A spatial analysis of hierarchical waste transport structures under growing demand.

PubMed

Tanguy, Audrey; Glaus, Mathias; Laforest, Valérie; Villot, Jonathan; Hausler, Robert

2016-10-01

The design of waste management systems rarely accounts for the spatio-temporal evolution of the demand. However, recent studies suggest that this evolution affects the planning of waste management activities like the choice and location of treatment facilities. As a result, the transport structure could also be affected by these changes. The objective of this paper is to study the influence of the spatio-temporal evolution of the demand on the strategic planning of a waste transport structure. More particularly this study aims at evaluating the effect of varying spatial parameters on the economic performance of hierarchical structures (with one transfer station). To this end, three consecutive generations of three different spatial distributions were tested for hierarchical and non-hierarchical transport structures based on costs minimization. Results showed that a hierarchical structure is economically viable for large and clustered spatial distributions. The distance parameter was decisive but the loading ratio of trucks and the formation of clusters of sources also impacted the attractiveness of the transfer station. Thus the territories' morphology should influence strategies as regards to the installation of transfer stations. The use of spatial-explicit tools such as the transport model presented in this work that take into account the territory's evolution are needed to help waste managers in the strategic planning of waste transport structures. © The Author(s) 2016.

Improving carbon monitoring and reporting in forests using spatially-explicit information.

PubMed

Boisvenue, Céline; Smiley, Byron P; White, Joanne C; Kurz, Werner A; Wulder, Michael A

2016-12-01

Understanding and quantifying carbon (C) exchanges between the biosphere and the atmosphere-specifically the process of C removal from the atmosphere, and how this process is changing-is the basis for developing appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change. Monitoring forest systems and reporting on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals are now required components of international efforts aimed at mitigating rising atmospheric GHG. Spatially-explicit information about forests can improve the estimates of GHG emissions and removals. However, at present, remotely-sensed information on forest change is not commonly integrated into GHG reporting systems. New, detailed (30-m spatial resolution) forest change products derived from satellite time series informing on location, magnitude, and type of change, at an annual time step, have recently become available. Here we estimate the forest GHG balance using these new Landsat-based change data, a spatial forest inventory, and develop yield curves as inputs to the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) to estimate GHG emissions and removals at a 30 m resolution for a 13 Mha pilot area in Saskatchewan, Canada. Our results depict the forests as cumulative C sink (17.98 Tg C or 0.64 Tg C year -1 ) between 1984 and 2012 with an average C density of 206.5 (±0.6) Mg C ha -1 . Comparisons between our estimates and estimates from Canada's National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting System (NFCMARS) were possible only on a subset of our study area. In our simulations the area was a C sink, while the official reporting simulations, it was a C source. Forest area and overall C stock estimates also differ between the two simulated estimates. Both estimates have similar uncertainties, but the spatially-explicit results we present here better quantify the potential improvement brought on by spatially-explicit modelling. We discuss the source of the differences between these estimates. This study represents an important first step towards the integration of spatially-explicit information into Canada's NFCMARS.

Can hydro-economic river basin models simulate water shadow prices under asymmetric access?

PubMed

Kuhn, A; Britz, W

2012-01-01

Hydro-economic river basin models (HERBM) based on mathematical programming are conventionally formulated as explicit 'aggregate optimization' problems with a single, aggregate objective function. Often unintended, this format implicitly assumes that decisions on water allocation are made via central planning or functioning markets such as to maximize social welfare. In the absence of perfect water markets, however, individually optimal decisions by water users will differ from the social optimum. Classical aggregate HERBMs cannot simulate that situation and thus might be unable to describe existing institutions governing access to water and might produce biased results for alternative ones. We propose a new solution format for HERBMs, based on the format of the mixed complementarity problem (MCP), where modified shadow price relations express spatial externalities resulting from asymmetric access to water use. This new problem format, as opposed to commonly used linear (LP) or non-linear programming (NLP) approaches, enables the simultaneous simulation of numerous 'independent optimization' decisions by multiple water users while maintaining physical interdependences based on water use and flow in the river basin. We show that the alternative problem format allows the formulation HERBMs that yield more realistic results when comparing different water management institutions.

Treatment algorithms and protocolized care.

PubMed

Morris, Alan H

2003-06-01

Excess information in complex ICU environments exceeds human decision-making limits and likely contributes to unnecessary variation in clinical care, increasing the likelihood of clinical errors. I reviewed recent critical care clinical trials searching for information about the impact of protocol use on clinically pertinent outcomes. Several recently published clinical trials illustrate the importance of distinguishing efficacy and effectiveness trials. One of these trials illustrates the danger of conducting effectiveness trials before the efficacy of an intervention is established. The trials also illustrate the importance of distinguishing guidelines and inadequately explicit protocols from adequately explicit protocols. Only adequately explicit protocols contain enough detail to lead different clinicians to the same decision when faced with the same clinical scenario. Differences between guidelines and protocols are important. Guidelines lack detail and provide general guidance that requires clinicians to fill in many gaps. Computerized or paper-based protocols are detailed and, when used for complex clinical ICU problems, can generate patient-specific, evidence-based therapy instructions that can be carried out by different clinicians with almost no interclinician variability. Individualization of patient therapy can be preserved by these protocols when they are driven by individual patient data. Explicit decision-support tools (eg, guidelines and protocols) have favorable effects on clinician and patient outcomes and can reduce the variation in clinical practice. Guidelines and protocols that aid ICU decision makers should be more widely distributed.

Locally adaptive, spatially explicit projection of US population for 2030 and 2050.

PubMed

McKee, Jacob J; Rose, Amy N; Bright, Edward A; Huynh, Timmy; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

2015-02-03

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high-resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically informed spatial distribution of projected population of the contiguous United States for 2030 and 2050, depicting one of many possible population futures. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection model departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modeled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the US Census's projection methodology, with the US Census's official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include incorporating multiple various scenario-driven events to produce a range of spatially explicit population futures for suitability modeling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.

Habitat fragmentation resulting in overgrazing by herbivores.

PubMed

Kondoh, Michio

2003-12-21

Habitat fragmentation sometimes results in outbreaks of herbivorous insect and causes an enormous loss of primary production. It is hypothesized that the driving force behind such herbivore outbreaks is disruption of natural enemy attack that releases herbivores from top-down control. To test this hypothesis I studied how trophic community structure changes along a gradient of habitat fragmentation level using spatially implicit and explicit models of a tri-trophic (plant, herbivore and natural enemy) food chain. While in spatially implicit model number of trophic levels gradually decreases with increasing fragmentation, in spatially explicit model a relatively low level of habitat fragmentation leads to overgrazing by herbivore to result in extinction of the plant population followed by a total system collapse. This provides a theoretical support to the hypothesis that habitat fragmentation can lead to overgrazing by herbivores and suggests a central role of spatial structure in the influence of habitat fragmentation on trophic communities. Further, the spatially explicit model shows (i) that the total system collapse by the overgrazing can occur only if herbivore colonization rate is high; (ii) that with increasing natural enemy colonization rate, the fragmentation level that leads to the system collapse becomes higher, and the frequency of the collapse is lowered.

Exploring spatial change and gravity center movement for ecosystem services value using a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and gravity model.

PubMed

He, Yingbin; Chen, Youqi; Tang, Huajun; Yao, Yanmin; Yang, Peng; Chen, Zhongxin

2011-04-01

Spatially explicit ecosystem services valuation and change is a newly developing area of research in the field of ecology. Using the Beijing region as a study area, the authors have developed a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and implemented this to quantify and spatially differentiate ecosystem services value at 1-km grid resolution. A gravity model was developed to trace spatial change in the total ecosystem services value of the Beijing study area from a holistic point of view. Study results show that the total value of ecosystem services for the study area decreased by 19.75% during the period 1996-2006 (3,226.2739 US$×10(6) in 1996, 2,589.0321 US$×10(6) in 2006). However, 27.63% of the total area of the Beijing study area increased in ecosystem services value. Spatial differences in ecosystem services values for both 1996 and 2006 are very clear. The center of gravity of total ecosystem services value for the study area moved 32.28 km northwestward over the 10 years due to intensive human intervention taking place in southeast Beijing. The authors suggest that policy-makers should pay greater attention to ecological protection under conditions of rapid socio-economic development and increase the area of green belt in the southeastern part of Beijing.

Predicting long-range transport: a systematic evaluation of two multimedia transport models.

PubMed

Bennett, D H; Scheringer, M; McKone, T E; Hungerbühler, K

2001-03-15

The United Nations Environment Program has recently developed criteria to identify and restrict chemicals with a potential for persistence and long-range transport (persistent organic pollutants or POPs). There are many stakeholders involved, and the issues are not only scientific but also include social, economic, and political factors. This work focuses on one aspect of the POPs debate, the criteria for determining the potential for long-range transport (LRT). Our goal is to determine if current models are reliable enough to support decisions that classify a chemical based on the LRT potential. We examine the robustness of two multimedia fate models for determining the relative ranking and absolute spatial range of various chemicals in the environment. We also consider the effect of parameter uncertainties and the model uncertainty associated with the selection of an algorithm for gas-particle partitioning on the model results. Given the same chemical properties, both models give virtually the same ranking. However, when chemical parameter uncertainties and model uncertainties such as particle partitioning are considered, the spatial range distributions obtained for the individual chemicals overlap, preventing a distinct rank order. The absolute values obtained for the predicted spatial range or travel distance differ significantly between the two models for the uncertainties evaluated. We find that to evaluate a chemical when large and unresolved uncertainties exist, it is more informative to use two or more models and include multiple types of uncertainty. Model differences and uncertainties must be explicitly confronted to determine how the limitations of scientific knowledge impact predictions in the decision-making process.

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics and Value of Nature-Based Recreation, Estimated via Social Media

PubMed Central

Watson, Keri B.; Wood, Spencer A.; Ricketts, Taylor H.

2016-01-01

Conserved lands provide multiple ecosystem services, including opportunities for nature-based recreation. Managing this service requires understanding the landscape attributes underpinning its provision, and how changes in land management affect its contribution to human wellbeing over time. However, evidence from both spatially explicit and temporally dynamic analyses is scarce, often due to data limitations. In this study, we investigated nature-based recreation within conserved lands in Vermont, USA. We used geotagged photographs uploaded to the photo-sharing website Flickr to quantify visits by in-state and out-of-state visitors, and we multiplied visits by mean trip expenditures to show that conserved lands contributed US $1.8 billion (US $0.18–20.2 at 95% confidence) to Vermont’s tourism industry between 2007 and 2014. We found eight landscape attributes explained the pattern of visits to conserved lands; visits were higher in larger conserved lands, with less forest cover, greater trail density and more opportunities for snow sports. Some of these attributes differed from those found in other locations, but all aligned with our understanding of recreation in Vermont. We also found that using temporally static models to inform conservation decisions may have perverse outcomes for nature-based recreation. For example, static models suggest conserved land with less forest cover receive more visits, but temporally dynamic models suggest clearing forests decreases, rather than increases, visits to these sites. Our results illustrate the importance of understanding both the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecosystem services for conservation decision-making. PMID:27611325

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems.

PubMed

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Toward an integrated understanding of perceived biodiversity values and environmental conditions in a national park

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Riper, Carena J.; Kyle, Gerard T.; Sherrouse, Ben C.; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Sutton, Stephen G.

2016-01-01

In spatial planning and management of protected areas, increased priority is being given to research that integrates social and ecological data. However, public viewpoints of the benefits provided by ecosystems are not easily quantified and often implicitly folded into natural resource management decisions. Drawing on a spatially explicit participatory mapping exercise and a Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) analysis tool, the present study empirically examined and integrated social values for ecosystem services and environmental conditions within Channel Islands National Park, California. Specifically, a social value indicator of perceived biodiversity was examined using on-site survey data collected from a sample of people who visited the park. This information was modeled alongside eight environmental conditions including faunal species richness for six taxa, vegetation density, categories of marine and terrestrial land cover, and distance to features relevant for decision-makers. Results showed that biodiversity value points assigned to places by the pooled sample of respondents were widely and unevenly mapped, which reflected the belief that biodiversity was embodied to varying degrees by multiple locations in the park. Models generated for two survey subgroups defined by their self-reported knowledge of the Channels Islands revealed distinct spatial patterns of these perceived values. Specifically, respondents with high knowledge valued large spaces that were publicly inaccessible and unlikely to contain on-ground biodiversity, whereas respondents with low knowledge valued places that were experienced first-hand. Accessibility and infrastructure were also important considerations for anticipating how and where people valued the protected land and seascapes of Channel Islands National Park.

Wildfire risk assessment in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface of Greece.

PubMed

Mitsopoulos, Ioannis; Mallinis, Giorgos; Arianoutsou, Margarita

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess spatial wildfire risk in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Greece and the potential effect of three different burning condition scenarios on the following four major wildfire risk components: burn probability, conditional flame length, fire size, and source-sink ratio. We applied the Minimum Travel Time fire simulation algorithm using the FlamMap and ArcFuels tools to characterize the potential response of the wildfire risk to a range of different burning scenarios. We created site-specific fuel models of the study area by measuring the field fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, and we determined the spatial extent of the different fuel types and residential structures in the study area using photointerpretation procedures of large scale natural color orthophotographs. The results included simulated spatially explicit fire risk components along with wildfire risk exposure analysis and the expected net value change. Statistical significance differences in simulation outputs between the scenarios were obtained using Tukey's significance test. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision support systems for short-term predictions of wildfire risk potential and inform wildland fire management of typical WUI areas in Greece.

Wildfire Risk Assessment in a Typical Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interface of Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitsopoulos, Ioannis; Mallinis, Giorgos; Arianoutsou, Margarita

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess spatial wildfire risk in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Greece and the potential effect of three different burning condition scenarios on the following four major wildfire risk components: burn probability, conditional flame length, fire size, and source-sink ratio. We applied the Minimum Travel Time fire simulation algorithm using the FlamMap and ArcFuels tools to characterize the potential response of the wildfire risk to a range of different burning scenarios. We created site-specific fuel models of the study area by measuring the field fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, and we determined the spatial extent of the different fuel types and residential structures in the study area using photointerpretation procedures of large scale natural color orthophotographs. The results included simulated spatially explicit fire risk components along with wildfire risk exposure analysis and the expected net value change. Statistical significance differences in simulation outputs between the scenarios were obtained using Tukey's significance test. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision support systems for short-term predictions of wildfire risk potential and inform wildland fire management of typical WUI areas in Greece.

Effect of different sampling schemes on the spatial placement of conservation reserves in Utah, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bassett, S.D.; Edwards, T.C.

2003-01-01

We evaluated the effect of three different sampling schemes used to organize spatially explicit biological information had on the spatial placement of conservation reserves in Utah, USA. The three sampling schemes consisted of a hexagon representation developed by the EPA/EMAP program (statistical basis), watershed boundaries (ecological), and the current county boundaries of Utah (socio-political). Four decision criteria were used to estimate effects, including amount of area, length of edge, lowest number of contiguous reserves, and greatest number of terrestrial vertebrate species covered. A fifth evaluation criterion was the effect each sampling scheme had on the ability of the modeled conservation reserves to cover the six major ecoregions found in Utah. Of the three sampling schemes, county boundaries covered the greatest number of species, but also created the longest length of edge and greatest number of reserves. Watersheds maximized species coverage using the least amount of area. Hexagons and watersheds provide the least amount of edge and fewest number of reserves. Although there were differences in area, edge and number of reserves among the sampling schemes, all three schemes covered all the major ecoregions in Utah and their inclusive biodiversity. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rapid Response Tools and Datasets for Post-fire Erosion Modeling: Lessons Learned from the Rock House and High Park Fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Mary Ellen; Elliot, William E.; MacDonald, Lee H.

2013-04-01

Once the danger posed by an active wildfire has passed, land managers must rapidly assess the threat from post-fire runoff and erosion due to the loss of surface cover and fire-induced changes in soil properties. Increased runoff and sediment delivery are of great concern to both the pubic and resource managers. Post-fire assessments and proposals to mitigate these threats are typically undertaken by interdisciplinary Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams. These teams are under very tight deadlines, so they often begin their analysis while the fire is still burning and typically must complete their plans within a couple of weeks. Many modeling tools and datasets have been developed over the years to assist BAER teams, but process-based, spatially explicit models are currently under-utilized relative to simpler, lumped models because they are more difficult to set up and require the preparation of spatially-explicit data layers such as digital elevation models, soils, and land cover. The difficulty of acquiring and utilizing these data layers in spatially-explicit models increases with increasing fire size. Spatially-explicit post-fire erosion modeling was attempted for a small watershed in the 1270 km2 Rock House fire in Texas, but the erosion modeling work could not be completed in time. The biggest limitation was the time required to extract the spatially explicit soils data needed to run the preferred post-fire erosion model (GeoWEPP with Disturbed WEPP parameters). The solution is to have the spatial soil, land cover, and DEM data layers prepared ahead of time, and to have a clear methodology for the BAER teams to incorporate these layers in spatially-explicit modeling interfaces like GeoWEPP. After a fire occurs the data layers can quickly be clipped to the fire perimeter. The soil and land cover parameters can then be adjusted according to the burn severity map, which is one of the first products generated for the BAER teams. Under a previous project for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency this preparatory work was done for much of Colorado, and in June 2012 the High Park wildfire in north central Colorado burned over 340 km2. The data layers for the entire burn area were quickly assembled and the spatially explicit runoff and erosion modeling was completed in less than three days. The resulting predictions were then used by the BAER team to quantify downstream risks and delineate priority areas for different post-fire treatments. These two contrasting case studies demonstrate the feasibility and the value of preparing datasets and modeling tools ahead of time. In recognition of this, the U.S. National Aeronautic and Space Administration has agreed to fund a pilot project to demonstrate the utility of acquiring and preparing the necessary data layers for fire-prone wildlands across the western U.S. A similar modeling and data acquisition approach could be followed

Health, trust, or "just understood": explicit and implicit condom decision-making processes among black, white, and interracial same-sex male couples.

PubMed

Campbell, Chadwick K; Gómez, Anu Manchikanti; Dworkin, Shari; Wilson, Patrick A; Grisham, Kirk K; McReynolds, Jaih; Vielehr, Peter; Hoff, Colleen

2014-05-01

Among gay and bisexual men, primary partners are a leading source of HIV infection. Trust, intimacy, and advancements in HIV treatment may impact same-sex male (SSM) couples' decisions to engage in unprotected anal intercourse (UAI). This qualitative study explored how Black, White and interracial couples discussed, and made decisions regarding condoms. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 48 SSM couples in the New York and San Francisco metropolitan areas. Stratified purposive sampling was used to include Black (n = 16), White (n = 17), and interracial (Black-White) (n = 15) couples. Twenty-six couples were concordant HIV-negative and 22 were HIV-discordant. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, coded, and analyzed using a grounded theory approach. Some couples described explicit processes, which involved active discussion, while others described implicit processes, where condom-use decisions occurred without any explicit discussion. These processes also differed by race and HIV status. Black couples tended to report condom-use as "just understood." White, HIV-discordant couples decided not to use condoms, with some identifying the HIV-positive partner's suppressed viral load and high CD4 count as deciding factors. After an unplanned episode of UAI, White, HIV-negative couples tended to discontinue condom use while Black HIV-negative couples decided to revert to using condoms. HIV prevention efforts focused on same-sex, male couples must consider the explicit/implicit nature of condom decision-making processes. Understanding differences in these processes and considering relationship dynamics, across race and HIV status, can promote the development of innovative couple-level, HIV prevention interventions.

Spatial Downscaling of Alien Species Presences using Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daliakopoulos, Ioannis N.; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Moustakas, Aristides

2017-07-01

Large scale, high-resolution data on alien species distributions are essential for spatially explicit assessments of their environmental and socio-economic impacts, and management interventions for mitigation. However, these data are often unavailable. This paper presents a method that relies on Random Forest (RF) models to distribute alien species presence counts at a finer resolution grid, thus achieving spatial downscaling. A sufficiently large number of RF models are trained using random subsets of the dataset as predictors, in a bootstrapping approach to account for the uncertainty introduced by the subset selection. The method is tested with an approximately 8×8 km2 grid containing floral alien species presence and several indices of climatic, habitat, land use covariates for the Mediterranean island of Crete, Greece. Alien species presence is aggregated at 16×16 km2 and used as a predictor of presence at the original resolution, thus simulating spatial downscaling. Potential explanatory variables included habitat types, land cover richness, endemic species richness, soil type, temperature, precipitation, and freshwater availability. Uncertainty assessment of the spatial downscaling of alien species’ occurrences was also performed and true/false presences and absences were quantified. The approach is promising for downscaling alien species datasets of larger spatial scale but coarse resolution, where the underlying environmental information is available at a finer resolution than the alien species data. Furthermore, the RF architecture allows for tuning towards operationally optimal sensitivity and specificity, thus providing a decision support tool for designing a resource efficient alien species census.

Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goetz, Scott J.; Bockstael, Nancy E.; Jantz, Claire A.

2005-01-01

This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has undertaken analyses of these models. One (the CA model) is driven largely by observations on past patterns of land use change, while the other (the EC model) is driven by mechanisms of the land use change decision at the parcel level. Our project may be the first serious attempt at developing both types of models for the same area, using as much common data as possible. We have identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches and plan to continue to revise each model in the light of new data and new lessons learned through continued collaboration. Questions, approaches, findings, publication and presentation lists concerning the research are also presented.

Influence diagrams as oil spill decision science tools

EPA Science Inventory

Making inferences on risks to ecosystem services (ES) from ecological crises can be more reliably handled using decision science tools. Influence diagrams (IDs) are probabilistic networks that explicitly represent the decisions related to a problem and evidence of their influence...

Analysis of Spatial Concepts, Spatial Skills and Spatial Representations in New York State Regents Earth Science Examinations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kastens, Kim A.; Pistolesi, Linda; Passow, Michael J.

2014-01-01

Research has shown that spatial thinking is important in science in general, and in Earth Science in particular, and that performance on spatially demanding tasks can be fostered through instruction. Because spatial thinking is rarely taught explicitly in the U.S. education system, improving spatial thinking may be "low-hanging fruit" as…

Spatializing 6,000 years of global urbanization from 3700 BC to AD 2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reba, Meredith; Reitsma, Femke; Seto, Karen C.

2016-06-01

How were cities distributed globally in the past? How many people lived in these cities? How did cities influence their local and regional environments? In order to understand the current era of urbanization, we must understand long-term historical urbanization trends and patterns. However, to date there is no comprehensive record of spatially explicit, historic, city-level population data at the global scale. Here, we developed the first spatially explicit dataset of urban settlements from 3700 BC to AD 2000, by digitizing, transcribing, and geocoding historical, archaeological, and census-based urban population data previously published in tabular form by Chandler and Modelski. The dataset creation process also required data cleaning and harmonization procedures to make the data internally consistent. Additionally, we created a reliability ranking for each geocoded location to assess the geographic uncertainty of each data point. The dataset provides the first spatially explicit archive of the location and size of urban populations over the last 6,000 years and can contribute to an improved understanding of contemporary and historical urbanization trends.

Spatializing 6,000 years of global urbanization from 3700 BC to AD 2000

PubMed Central

Reba, Meredith; Reitsma, Femke; Seto, Karen C.

2016-01-01

How were cities distributed globally in the past? How many people lived in these cities? How did cities influence their local and regional environments? In order to understand the current era of urbanization, we must understand long-term historical urbanization trends and patterns. However, to date there is no comprehensive record of spatially explicit, historic, city-level population data at the global scale. Here, we developed the first spatially explicit dataset of urban settlements from 3700 BC to AD 2000, by digitizing, transcribing, and geocoding historical, archaeological, and census-based urban population data previously published in tabular form by Chandler and Modelski. The dataset creation process also required data cleaning and harmonization procedures to make the data internally consistent. Additionally, we created a reliability ranking for each geocoded location to assess the geographic uncertainty of each data point. The dataset provides the first spatially explicit archive of the location and size of urban populations over the last 6,000 years and can contribute to an improved understanding of contemporary and historical urbanization trends. PMID:27271481

The Huaihe Basin Water Resource and Water Quality Management Platform Implemented with a Spatio-Temporal Data Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Zhang, W.; Yan, C.

2012-07-01

Presently, planning and assessment in maintenance, renewal and decision-making for watershed hydrology, water resource management and water quality assessment are evolving toward complex, spatially explicit regional environmental assessments. These problems have to be addressed with object-oriented spatio-temporal data models that can restore, manage, query and visualize various historic and updated basic information concerning with watershed hydrology, water resource management and water quality as well as compute and evaluate the watershed environmental conditions so as to provide online forecasting to police-makers and relevant authorities for supporting decision-making. The extensive data requirements and the difficult task of building input parameter files, however, has long been an obstacle to use of such complex models timely and effectively by resource managers. Success depends on an integrated approach that brings together scientific, education and training advances made across many individual disciplines and modified to fit the needs of the individuals and groups who must write, implement, evaluate, and adjust their watershed management plans. The centre for Hydro-science Research, Nanjing University, in cooperation with the relevant watershed management authorities, has developed a WebGIS management platform to facilitate this complex process. Improve the management of watersheds over the Huaihe basin through the development, promotion and use of a web-based, user-friendly, geospatial watershed management data and decision support system (WMDDSS) involved many difficulties for the development of this complicated System. In terms of the spatial and temporal characteristics of historic and currently available information on meteorological, hydrological, geographical, environmental and other relevant disciplines, we designed an object-oriented spatiotemporal data model that combines spatial, attribute and temporal information to implement the management system. Using this system, we can update, query and analyze environmental information as well as manage historical data, and a visualization tool was provided to help the user interpret results so as to provide scientific support for decision-making. The utility of the system has been demonstrated its values by being used in watershed management and environmental assessments.

Spatial Working Memory Interferes with Explicit, but Not Probabilistic Cuing of Spatial Attention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Won, Bo-Yeong; Jiang, Yuhong V.

2015-01-01

Recent empirical and theoretical work has depicted a close relationship between visual attention and visual working memory. For example, rehearsal in spatial working memory depends on spatial attention, whereas adding a secondary spatial working memory task impairs attentional deployment in visual search. These findings have led to the proposal…

A different time and place test of ArcHSI: A spatially explicit habitat model for elk in the Black Hills

Treesearch

Mark A. Rumble; Lakhdar Benkobi; R. Scott Gamo

2007-01-01

We tested predictions of the spatially explicit ArcHSI habitat model for elk. The distribution of elk relative to proximity of forage and cover differed from that predicted. Elk used areas near primary roads similar to that predicted by the model, but elk were farther from secondary roads. Elk used areas categorized as good (> 0.7), fair (> 0.42 to 0.7), and poor...

Preserved memory-based orienting of attention with impaired explicit memory in healthy ageing.

PubMed

Salvato, Gerardo; Patai, Eva Z; Nobre, Anna C

2016-01-01

It is increasingly recognised that spatial contextual long-term memory (LTM) prepares neural activity for guiding visuo-spatial attention in a proactive manner. In the current study, we investigated whether the decline in explicit memory observed in healthy ageing would compromise this mechanism. We compared the behavioural performance of younger and older participants on learning new contextual memories, on orienting visual attention based on these learnt contextual associations, and on explicit recall of contextual memories. We found a striking dissociation between older versus younger participants in the relationship between the ability to retrieve contextual memories versus the ability to use these to guide attention to enhance performance on a target-detection task. Older participants showed significant deficits in the explicit retrieval task, but their behavioural benefits from memory-based orienting of attention were equivalent to those in young participants. Furthermore, memory-based orienting correlated significantly with explicit contextual LTM in younger adults but not in older adults. These results suggest that explicit memory deficits in ageing might not compromise initial perception and encoding of events. Importantly, the results also shed light on the mechanisms of memory-guided attention, suggesting that explicit contextual memories are not necessary. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Using a spatially explicit analysis model to evaluate spatial variation of corn yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Spatial irrigation of agricultural crops using site-specific variable-rate irrigation (VRI) systems is beginning to have wide-spread acceptance. However, optimizing the management of these VRI systems to conserve natural resources and increase profitability requires an understanding of the spatial ...

Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

DOE PAGES

Jones, B.; O’Neill, B. C.

2016-07-29

Here we report that the projected size and spatial distribution of the future population are important drivers of global change and key determinants of exposure and vulnerability to hazards. Spatial demographic projections are widely used as inputs to spatial projections of land use, energy use, and emissions, as well as to assessments of the impacts of extreme events, sea level rise, and other climate-related outcomes. To date, however, there are very few global-scale, spatially explicit population projections, and those that do exist are often based on simple scaling or trend extrapolation. Here we present a new set of global, spatiallymore » explicit population scenarios that are consistent with the new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed to facilitate global change research. We use a parameterized gravity-based downscaling model to produce projections of spatial population change that are quantitatively consistent with national population and urbanization projections for the SSPs and qualitatively consistent with assumptions in the SSP narratives regarding spatial development patterns. We show that the five SSPs lead to substantially different spatial population outcomes at the continental, national, and sub-national scale. In general, grid cell-level outcomes are most influenced by national-level population change, second by urbanization rate, and third by assumptions about the spatial style of development. However, the relative importance of these factors is a function of the magnitude of the projected change in total population and urbanization for each country and across SSPs. We also demonstrate variation in outcomes considering the example of population existing in a low-elevation coastal zone under alternative scenarios.« less

Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, B.; O’Neill, B. C.

Here we report that the projected size and spatial distribution of the future population are important drivers of global change and key determinants of exposure and vulnerability to hazards. Spatial demographic projections are widely used as inputs to spatial projections of land use, energy use, and emissions, as well as to assessments of the impacts of extreme events, sea level rise, and other climate-related outcomes. To date, however, there are very few global-scale, spatially explicit population projections, and those that do exist are often based on simple scaling or trend extrapolation. Here we present a new set of global, spatiallymore » explicit population scenarios that are consistent with the new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed to facilitate global change research. We use a parameterized gravity-based downscaling model to produce projections of spatial population change that are quantitatively consistent with national population and urbanization projections for the SSPs and qualitatively consistent with assumptions in the SSP narratives regarding spatial development patterns. We show that the five SSPs lead to substantially different spatial population outcomes at the continental, national, and sub-national scale. In general, grid cell-level outcomes are most influenced by national-level population change, second by urbanization rate, and third by assumptions about the spatial style of development. However, the relative importance of these factors is a function of the magnitude of the projected change in total population and urbanization for each country and across SSPs. We also demonstrate variation in outcomes considering the example of population existing in a low-elevation coastal zone under alternative scenarios.« less

Multi-criteria Integrated Resource Assessment (MIRA)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

MIRA is an approach that facilitates stakeholder engagement for collaborative multi-objective decision making. MIRA is designed to facilitate and support an inclusive, explicit, transparent, iterative learning-based decision process.

Exploring component-based approaches in forest landscape modeling

Treesearch

H. S. He; D. R. Larsen; D. J. Mladenoff

2002-01-01

Forest management issues are increasingly required to be addressed in a spatial context, which has led to the development of spatially explicit forest landscape models. The numerous processes, complex spatial interactions, and diverse applications in spatial modeling make the development of forest landscape models difficult for any single research group. New...

Spatially explicit spectral analysis of point clouds and geospatial data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buscombe, Daniel D.

2015-01-01

The increasing use of spatially explicit analyses of high-resolution spatially distributed data (imagery and point clouds) for the purposes of characterising spatial heterogeneity in geophysical phenomena necessitates the development of custom analytical and computational tools. In recent years, such analyses have become the basis of, for example, automated texture characterisation and segmentation, roughness and grain size calculation, and feature detection and classification, from a variety of data types. In this work, much use has been made of statistical descriptors of localised spatial variations in amplitude variance (roughness), however the horizontal scale (wavelength) and spacing of roughness elements is rarely considered. This is despite the fact that the ratio of characteristic vertical to horizontal scales is not constant and can yield important information about physical scaling relationships. Spectral analysis is a hitherto under-utilised but powerful means to acquire statistical information about relevant amplitude and wavelength scales, simultaneously and with computational efficiency. Further, quantifying spatially distributed data in the frequency domain lends itself to the development of stochastic models for probing the underlying mechanisms which govern the spatial distribution of geological and geophysical phenomena. The software packagePySESA (Python program for Spatially Explicit Spectral Analysis) has been developed for generic analyses of spatially distributed data in both the spatial and frequency domains. Developed predominantly in Python, it accesses libraries written in Cython and C++ for efficiency. It is open source and modular, therefore readily incorporated into, and combined with, other data analysis tools and frameworks with particular utility for supporting research in the fields of geomorphology, geophysics, hydrography, photogrammetry and remote sensing. The analytical and computational structure of the toolbox is described, and its functionality illustrated with an example of a high-resolution bathymetric point cloud data collected with multibeam echosounder.

Implicit and Explicit Number-Space Associations Differentially Relate to Interference Control in Young Adults With ADHD

PubMed Central

Georges, Carrie; Hoffmann, Danielle; Schiltz, Christine

2018-01-01

Behavioral evidence for the link between numerical and spatial representations comes from the spatial-numerical association of response codes (SNARC) effect, consisting in faster reaction times to small/large numbers with the left/right hand respectively. The SNARC effect is, however, characterized by considerable intra- and inter-individual variability. It depends not only on the explicit or implicit nature of the numerical task, but also relates to interference control. To determine whether the prevalence of the latter relation in the elderly could be ascribed to younger individuals’ ceiling performances on executive control tasks, we determined whether the SNARC effect related to Stroop and/or Flanker effects in 26 young adults with ADHD. We observed a divergent pattern of correlation depending on the type of numerical task used to assess the SNARC effect and the type of interference control measure involved in number-space associations. Namely, stronger number-space associations during parity judgments involving implicit magnitude processing related to weaker interference control in the Stroop but not Flanker task. Conversely, stronger number-space associations during explicit magnitude classifications tended to be associated with better interference control in the Flanker but not Stroop paradigm. The association of stronger parity and magnitude SNARC effects with weaker and better interference control respectively indicates that different mechanisms underlie these relations. Activation of the magnitude-associated spatial code is irrelevant and potentially interferes with parity judgments, but in contrast assists explicit magnitude classifications. Altogether, the present study confirms the contribution of interference control to number-space associations also in young adults. It suggests that magnitude-associated spatial codes in implicit and explicit tasks are monitored by different interference control mechanisms, thereby explaining task-related intra-individual differences in number-space associations. PMID:29881363

Confidentiality and spatially explicit data: Concerns and challenges

PubMed Central

VanWey, Leah K.; Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Gutmann, Myron P.; Entwisle, Barbara; Balk, Deborah L.

2005-01-01

Recent theoretical, methodological, and technological advances in the spatial sciences create an opportunity for social scientists to address questions about the reciprocal relationship between context (spatial organization, environment, etc.) and individual behavior. This emerging research community has yet to adequately address the new threats to the confidentiality of respondent data in spatially explicit social survey or census data files, however. This paper presents four sometimes conflicting principles for the conduct of ethical and high-quality science using such data: protection of confidentiality, the social–spatial linkage, data sharing, and data preservation. The conflict among these four principles is particularly evident in the display of spatially explicit data through maps combined with the sharing of tabular data files. This paper reviews these two research activities and shows how current practices favor one of the principles over the others and do not satisfactorily resolve the conflict among them. Maps are indispensable for the display of results but also reveal information on the location of respondents and sampling clusters that can then be used in combination with shared data files to identify respondents. The current practice of sharing modified or incomplete data sets or using data enclaves is not ideal for either the advancement of science or the protection of confidentiality. Further basic research and open debate are needed to advance both understanding of and solutions to this dilemma. PMID:16230608

CDFISH: an individual-based, spatially-explicit, landscape genetics simulator for aquatic species in complex riverscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erin L. Landguth,; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Luikart, Gordon

2012-01-01

We introduce Cost Distance FISHeries (CDFISH), a simulator of population genetics and connectivity in complex riverscapes for a wide range of environmental scenarios of aquatic organisms. The spatially-explicit program implements individual-based genetic modeling with Mendelian inheritance and k-allele mutation on a riverscape with resistance to movement. The program simulates individuals in subpopulations through time employing user-defined functions of individual migration, reproduction, mortality, and dispersal through straying on a continuous resistance surface.

Voting Intention and Choices: Are Voters Always Rational and Deliberative?

PubMed Central

Lee, I-Ching; Chen, Eva E.; Tsai, Chia-Hung; Yen, Nai-Shing; Chen, Arbee L. P.; Lin, Wei-Chieh

2016-01-01

Human rationality–the ability to behave in order to maximize the achievement of their presumed goals (i.e., their optimal choices)–is the foundation for democracy. Research evidence has suggested that voters may not make decisions after exhaustively processing relevant information; instead, our decision-making capacity may be restricted by our own biases and the environment. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which humans in a democratic society can be rational when making decisions in a serious, complex situation–voting in a local political election. We believe examining human rationality in a political election is important, because a well-functioning democracy rests largely upon the rational choices of individual voters. Previous research has shown that explicit political attitudes predict voting intention and choices (i.e., actual votes) in democratic societies, indicating that people are able to reason comprehensively when making voting decisions. Other work, though, has demonstrated that the attitudes of which we may not be aware, such as our implicit (e.g., subconscious) preferences, can predict voting choices, which may question the well-functioning democracy. In this study, we systematically examined predictors on voting intention and choices in the 2014 mayoral election in Taipei, Taiwan. Results indicate that explicit political party preferences had the largest impact on voting intention and choices. Moreover, implicit political party preferences interacted with explicit political party preferences in accounting for voting intention, and in turn predicted voting choices. Ethnic identity and perceived voting intention of significant others were found to predict voting choices, but not voting intention. In sum, to the comfort of democracy, voters appeared to engage mainly explicit, controlled processes in making their decisions; but findings on ethnic identity and perceived voting intention of significant others may suggest otherwise. PMID:26886266

Voting Intention and Choices: Are Voters Always Rational and Deliberative?

PubMed

Lee, I-Ching; Chen, Eva E; Tsai, Chia-Hung; Yen, Nai-Shing; Chen, Arbee L P; Lin, Wei-Chieh

2016-01-01

Human rationality--the ability to behave in order to maximize the achievement of their presumed goals (i.e., their optimal choices)--is the foundation for democracy. Research evidence has suggested that voters may not make decisions after exhaustively processing relevant information; instead, our decision-making capacity may be restricted by our own biases and the environment. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which humans in a democratic society can be rational when making decisions in a serious, complex situation-voting in a local political election. We believe examining human rationality in a political election is important, because a well-functioning democracy rests largely upon the rational choices of individual voters. Previous research has shown that explicit political attitudes predict voting intention and choices (i.e., actual votes) in democratic societies, indicating that people are able to reason comprehensively when making voting decisions. Other work, though, has demonstrated that the attitudes of which we may not be aware, such as our implicit (e.g., subconscious) preferences, can predict voting choices, which may question the well-functioning democracy. In this study, we systematically examined predictors on voting intention and choices in the 2014 mayoral election in Taipei, Taiwan. Results indicate that explicit political party preferences had the largest impact on voting intention and choices. Moreover, implicit political party preferences interacted with explicit political party preferences in accounting for voting intention, and in turn predicted voting choices. Ethnic identity and perceived voting intention of significant others were found to predict voting choices, but not voting intention. In sum, to the comfort of democracy, voters appeared to engage mainly explicit, controlled processes in making their decisions; but findings on ethnic identity and perceived voting intention of significant others may suggest otherwise.

Patterns in the spatial distribution of Peruvian anchovy ( Engraulis ringens) revealed by spatially explicit fishing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertrand, Sophie; Díaz, Erich; Lengaigne, Matthieu

2008-10-01

Peruvian anchovy ( Engraulis ringens) stock abundance is tightly driven by the high and unpredictable variability of the Humboldt Current Ecosystem. Management of the fishery therefore cannot rely on mid- or long-term management policy alone but needs to be adaptive at relatively short time scales. Regular acoustic surveys are performed on the stock at intervals of 2 to 4 times a year, but there is a need for more time continuous monitoring indicators to ensure that management can respond at suitable time scales. Existing literature suggests that spatially explicit data on the location of fishing activities could be used as a proxy for target stock distribution. Spatially explicit commercial fishing data could therefore guide adaptive management decisions at shorter time scales than is possible through scientific stock surveys. In this study we therefore aim to (1) estimate the position of fishing operations for the entire fleet of Peruvian anchovy purse-seiners using the Peruvian satellite vessel monitoring system (VMS), and (2) quantify the extent to which the distribution of purse-seine sets describes anchovy distribution. To estimate fishing set positions from vessel tracks derived from VMS data we developed a methodology based on artificial neural networks (ANN) trained on a sample of fishing trips with known fishing set positions (exact fishing positions are known for approximately 1.5% of the fleet from an at-sea observer program). The ANN correctly identified 83% of the real fishing sets and largely outperformed comparative linear models. This network is then used to forecast fishing operations for those trips where no observers were onboard. To quantify the extent to which fishing set distribution was correlated to stock distribution we compared three metrics describing features of the distributions (the mean distance to the coast, the total area of distribution, and a clustering index) for concomitant acoustic survey observations and fishing set positions identified from VMS. For two of these metrics (mean distance to the coast and clustering index), fishing and survey data were significantly correlated. We conclude that the location of purse-seine fishing sets yields significant and valuable information on the distribution of the Peruvian anchovy stock and ultimately on its vulnerability to the fishery. For example, a high concentration of sets in the near coastal zone could potentially be used as a warning signal of high levels of stock vulnerability and trigger appropriate management measures aimed at reducing fishing effort.

Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) Using Unstructured Sampling Data

PubMed Central

Broekhuis, Femke; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.

2016-01-01

Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed ‘hotspots’ of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species. PMID:27135614

Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) Using Unstructured Sampling Data.

PubMed

Broekhuis, Femke; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M

2016-01-01

Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed 'hotspots' of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species.

Understanding the effects of different social data on selecting priority conservation areas.

PubMed

Karimi, Azadeh; Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Brown, Greg; Hockings, Marc

2017-12-01

Conservation success is contingent on assessing social and environmental factors so that cost-effective implementation of strategies and actions can be placed in a broad social-ecological context. Until now, the focus has been on how to include spatially explicit social data in conservation planning, whereas the value of different kinds of social data has received limited attention. In a regional systematic conservation planning case study in Australia, we examined the spatial concurrence of a range of spatially explicit social values and land-use preferences collected using a public participation geographic information system and biological data. We used Zonation to integrate the social data with the biological data in a series of spatial-prioritization scenarios to determine the effect of the different types of social data on spatial prioritization compared with biological data alone. The type of social data (i.e., conservation opportunities or constraints) significantly affected spatial prioritization outcomes. The integration of social values and land-use preferences under different scenarios was highly variable and generated spatial prioritizations 1.2-51% different from those based on biological data alone. The inclusion of conservation-compatible values and preferences added relatively few new areas to conservation priorities, whereas including noncompatible economic values and development preferences as costs significantly changed conservation priority areas (48.2% and 47.4%, respectively). Based on our results, a multifaceted conservation prioritization approach that combines spatially explicit social data with biological data can help conservation planners identify the type of social data to collect for more effective and feasible conservation actions. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of desertification in spatially explicit data.

PubMed

Seekell, David A; Dakos, Vasilis

2015-06-01

Regime shifts are abrupt transitions between alternate ecosystem states including desertification in arid regions due to drought or overgrazing. Regime shifts may be preceded by statistical anomalies such as increased autocorrelation, indicating declining resilience and warning of an impending shift. Tests for conditional heteroskedasticity, a type of clustered variance, have proven powerful leading indicators for regime shifts in time series data, but an analogous indicator for spatial data has not been evaluated. A spatial analog for conditional heteroskedasticity might be especially useful in arid environments where spatial interactions are critical in structuring ecosystem pattern and process. We tested the efficacy of a test for spatial heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of regime shifts with simulated data from spatially extended vegetation models with regular and scale-free patterning. These models simulate shifts from extensive vegetative cover to bare, desert-like conditions. The magnitude of spatial heteroskedasticity increased consistently as the modeled systems approached a regime shift from vegetated to desert state. Relative spatial autocorrelation, spatial heteroskedasticity increased earlier and more consistently. We conclude that tests for spatial heteroskedasticity can contribute to the growing toolbox of early warning indicators for regime shifts analyzed with spatially explicit data.

Configuration of the thermal landscape determines thermoregulatory performance of ectotherms

PubMed Central

Sears, Michael W.; Angilletta, Michael J.; Schuler, Matthew S.; Borchert, Jason; Dilliplane, Katherine F.; Stegman, Monica; Rusch, Travis W.; Mitchell, William A.

2016-01-01

Although most organisms thermoregulate behaviorally, biologists still cannot easily predict whether mobile animals will thermoregulate in natural environments. Current models fail because they ignore how the spatial distribution of thermal resources constrains thermoregulatory performance over space and time. To overcome this limitation, we modeled the spatially explicit movements of animals constrained by access to thermal resources. Our models predict that ectotherms thermoregulate more accurately when thermal resources are dispersed throughout space than when these resources are clumped. This prediction was supported by thermoregulatory behaviors of lizards in outdoor arenas with known distributions of environmental temperatures. Further, simulations showed how the spatial structure of the landscape qualitatively affects responses of animals to climate. Biologists will need spatially explicit models to predict impacts of climate change on local scales. PMID:27601639

Improving the integration of recreation management with management of other natural resources by applying concepts of scale from ecology.

PubMed

Morse, Wayde C; Hall, Troy E; Kruger, Linda E

2009-03-01

In this article, we examine how issues of scale affect the integration of recreation management with the management of other natural resources on public lands. We present two theories used to address scale issues in ecology and explore how they can improve the two most widely applied recreation-planning frameworks. The theory of patch dynamics and hierarchy theory are applied to the recreation opportunity spectrum (ROS) and the limits of acceptable change (LAC) recreation-planning frameworks. These frameworks have been widely adopted internationally, and improving their ability to integrate with other aspects of natural resource management has significant social and conservation implications. We propose that incorporating ecologic criteria and scale concepts into these recreation-planning frameworks will improve the foundation for integrated land management by resolving issues of incongruent boundaries, mismatched scales, and multiple-scale analysis. Specifically, we argue that whereas the spatially explicit process of the ROS facilitates integrated decision making, its lack of ecologic criteria, broad extent, and large patch size decrease its usefulness for integration at finer scales. The LAC provides explicit considerations for weighing competing values, but measurement of recreation disturbances within an LAC analysis is often done at too fine a grain and at too narrow an extent for integration with other recreation and resource concerns. We suggest that planners should perform analysis at multiple scales when making management decisions that involve trade-offs among competing values. The United States Forest Service is used as an example to discuss how resource-management agencies can improve this integration.

Neural markers of loss aversion in resting-state brain activity.

PubMed

Canessa, Nicola; Crespi, Chiara; Baud-Bovy, Gabriel; Dodich, Alessandra; Falini, Andrea; Antonellis, Giulia; Cappa, Stefano F

2017-02-01

Neural responses in striatal, limbic and somatosensory brain regions track individual differences in loss aversion, i.e. the higher sensitivity to potential losses compared with equivalent gains in decision-making under risk. The engagement of structures involved in the processing of aversive stimuli and experiences raises a further question, i.e. whether the tendency to avoid losses rather than acquire gains represents a transient fearful overreaction elicited by choice-related information, or rather a stable component of one's own preference function, reflecting a specific pattern of neural activity. We tested the latter hypothesis by assessing in 57 healthy human subjects whether the relationship between behavioral and neural loss aversion holds at rest, i.e. when the BOLD signal is collected during 5minutes of cross-fixation in the absence of an explicit task. Within the resting-state networks highlighted by a spatial group Independent Component Analysis (gICA), we found a significant correlation between strength of activity and behavioral loss aversion in the left ventral striatum and right posterior insula/supramarginal gyrus, i.e. the very same regions displaying a pattern of neural loss aversion during explicit choices. Cross-study analyses confirmed that this correlation holds when voxels identified by gICA are used as regions of interest in task-related activity and vice versa. These results suggest that the individual degree of (neural) loss aversion represents a stable dimension of decision-making, which reflects in specific metrics of intrinsic brain activity at rest possibly modulating cortical excitability at choice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How does spatial variability of climate affect catchment streamflow predictions?

EPA Science Inventory

Spatial variability of climate can negatively affect catchment streamflow predictions if it is not explicitly accounted for in hydrologic models. In this paper, we examine the changes in streamflow predictability when a hydrologic model is run with spatially variable (distribute...

Using IBMs to Investigate Spatially-dependent Processes in Landscape Genetics Theory

EPA Science Inventory

Much of landscape and conservation genetics theory has been derived using non-spatialmathematical models. Here, we use a mechanistic, spatially-explicit, eco-evolutionary IBM to examine the utility of this theoretical framework in landscapes with spatial structure. Our analysis...

Goal-oriented training affects decision-making processes in virtual and simulated fire and rescue environments.

PubMed

Cohen-Hatton, Sabrina R; Honey, R C

2015-12-01

Decisions made by operational commanders at emergency incidents have been characterized as involving a period of information gathering followed by courses of action that are often generated without explicit plan formulation. We examined the efficacy of goal-oriented training in engendering explicit planning that would enable better communication at emergency incidents. While standard training mirrored current operational guidance, goal-oriented training incorporated "decision controls" that highlighted the importance of evaluating goals, anticipated consequences, and risk/benefit analyses once a potential course of action has been identified. In Experiment 1, 3 scenarios (a house fire, road traffic collision, and skip fire) were presented in a virtual environment, and in Experiment 2 they were recreated on the fireground. In Experiment 3, the house fire was recreated as a "live burn," and incident commanders and their crews responded to this scenario as an emergency incident. In all experiments, groups given standard training showed the reported tendency to move directly from information gathering to action, whereas those given goal-oriented training were more likely to develop explicit plans and show anticipatory situational awareness. These results indicate that training can be readily modified to promote explicit plan formulation that could facilitate plan sharing between incident commanders and their teams. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Biased figure-ground assignment affects conscious object recognition in spatial neglect.

PubMed

Eramudugolla, Ranmalee; Driver, Jon; Mattingley, Jason B

2010-09-01

Unilateral spatial neglect is a disorder of attention and spatial representation, in which early visual processes such as figure-ground segmentation have been assumed to be largely intact. There is evidence, however, that the spatial attention bias underlying neglect can bias the segmentation of a figural region from its background. Relatively few studies have explicitly examined the effect of spatial neglect on processing the figures that result from such scene segmentation. Here, we show that a neglect patient's bias in figure-ground segmentation directly influences his conscious recognition of these figures. By varying the relative salience of figural and background regions in static, two-dimensional displays, we show that competition between elements in such displays can modulate a neglect patient's ability to recognise parsed figures in a scene. The findings provide insight into the interaction between scene segmentation, explicit object recognition, and attention.

Latent spatial models and sampling design for landscape genetics

Treesearch

Ephraim M. Hanks; Melvin B. Hooten; Steven T. Knick; Sara J. Oyler-McCance; Jennifer A. Fike; Todd B. Cross; Michael K. Schwartz

2016-01-01

We propose a spatially-explicit approach for modeling genetic variation across space and illustrate how this approach can be used to optimize spatial prediction and sampling design for landscape genetic data. We propose a multinomial data model for categorical microsatellite allele data commonly used in landscape genetic studies, and introduce a latent spatial...

Ecosystem service tradeoff analysis reveals the value of marine spatial planning for multiple ocean uses

PubMed Central

White, Crow; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Kappel, Carrie V.

2012-01-01

Marine spatial planning (MSP) is an emerging responsibility of resource managers around the United States and elsewhere. A key proposed advantage of MSP is that it makes tradeoffs in resource use and sector (stakeholder group) values explicit, but doing so requires tools to assess tradeoffs. We extended tradeoff analyses from economics to simultaneously assess multiple ecosystem services and the values they provide to sectors using a robust, quantitative, and transparent framework. We used the framework to assess potential conflicts among offshore wind energy, commercial fishing, and whale-watching sectors in Massachusetts and identify and quantify the value from choosing optimal wind farm designs that minimize conflicts among these sectors. Most notably, we show that using MSP over conventional planning could prevent >$1 million dollars in losses to the incumbent fishery and whale-watching sectors and could generate >$10 billion in extra value to the energy sector. The value of MSP increased with the greater the number of sectors considered and the larger the area under management. Importantly, the framework can be applied even when sectors are not measured in dollars (e.g., conservation). Making tradeoffs explicit improves transparency in decision-making, helps avoid unnecessary conflicts attributable to perceived but weak tradeoffs, and focuses debate on finding the most efficient solutions to mitigate real tradeoffs and maximize sector values. Our analysis demonstrates the utility, feasibility, and value of MSP and provides timely support for the management transitions needed for society to address the challenges of an increasingly crowded ocean environment. PMID:22392996

A data-model integration approach toward improved understanding on wetland functions and hydrological benefits at the catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeo, I. Y.; Lang, M.; Lee, S.; Huang, C.; Jin, H.; McCarty, G.; Sadeghi, A.

2017-12-01

The wetland ecosystem plays crucial roles in improving hydrological function and ecological integrity for the downstream water and the surrounding landscape. However, changing behaviours and functioning of wetland ecosystems are poorly understood and extremely difficult to characterize. Improved understanding on hydrological behaviours of wetlands, considering their interaction with surrounding landscapes and impacts on downstream waters, is an essential first step toward closing the knowledge gap. We present an integrated wetland-catchment modelling study that capitalizes on recently developed inundation maps and other geospatial data. The aim of the data-model integration is to improve spatial prediction of wetland inundation and evaluate cumulative hydrological benefits at the catchment scale. In this paper, we highlight problems arising from data preparation, parameterization, and process representation in simulating wetlands within a distributed catchment model, and report the recent progress on mapping of wetland dynamics (i.e., inundation) using multiple remotely sensed data. We demonstrate the value of spatially explicit inundation information to develop site-specific wetland parameters and to evaluate model prediction at multi-spatial and temporal scales. This spatial data-model integrated framework is tested using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with improved wetland extension, and applied for an agricultural watershed in the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain, USA. This study illustrates necessity of spatially distributed information and a data integrated modelling approach to predict inundation of wetlands and hydrologic function at the local landscape scale, where monitoring and conservation decision making take place.

The Effect of Spatial Aggregation on the Skill of Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Xiaofeng; Barnston, Anthony G.; Ward, M. Neil

2003-09-01

Skillful forecasts of 3-month total precipitation would be useful for decision making in hydrology, agriculture, public health, and other sectors of society. However, with some exceptions, the skill of seasonal precipitation outlooks is modest, leaving uncertainty in how to best make use of them. Seasonal precipitation forecast skill is generally lower than the skill of forecasts for temperature or atmospheric circulation patterns for the same location and time. This is attributable to the smaller-scale, more complex physics of precipitation, resulting in its `noisier' and hence less predictable character. By contrast, associated temperature and circulation patterns are larger scale, in keeping with the anomalous boundary conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature) that often give rise to them.Using two atmospheric general circulation models forced by observed sea surface temperature anomalies, the skill of simulations of total seasonal precipitation is examined as a function of the size of the spatial domain over which the precipitation total is averaged. Results show that spatial aggregation increases skill and, by the skill measures used here, does so to a greater extent for precipitation than for temperature. Corroborative results are presented in an observational framework at smaller spatial scales for gauge rainfalls in northeast Brazil.The findings imply that when seasonal forecasts for precipitation are issued, the accompanying guidance on their expected skills should explicitly specify to which spatial aggregation level the skills apply. Information about skills expected at other levels of aggregation should be supplied for users who may work at such levels.

Integrated planning and spatial evaluation of megasite remediation and reuse options.

PubMed

Schädler, Sebastian; Morio, Maximilian; Bartke, Stephan; Finkel, Michael

2012-01-01

Redevelopment of large contaminated brownfields (megasites) is often hampered by a lack of communication and harmonization among diverse stakeholders with potentially conflicting interests. Decision support is required to provide integrative yet transparent evaluation of often complex spatial information to stakeholders with different areas of expertise. It is considered crucial for successful redevelopment to identify a shared vision of how the respective contaminated site could be remediated and redeveloped. We describe a framework of assessment methods and models that analyzes and visualizes site- and land use-specific spatial information at the screening level, with the aim to support the derivation of recommendable land use layouts and to initiate further and more detailed planning. The framework integrates a GIS-based identification of areas to be remediated, an estimation of associated clean-up costs, a spatially explicit market value appraisal, and an assessment of the planned future land use's contribution to sustainable urban and regional development. Case study results show that derived options are potentially favorable in both a sustainability and an economic sense and that iterative re-planning is facilitated by the evaluation and visualization of economic, ecological and socio-economic aspects. The framework supports an efficient early judgment about whether and how abandoned land may be assigned a sustainable and marketable land use. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

USE OF HABITAT-CONTAMINATION SPATIAL CORRELATION TO DETERMINE WHEN TO PERFORM A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Anthropogenic contamination is typically distributed heterogeneously through space. This spatial structure can have different effects on the cumulative doses of individuals exposed to contamination within the environment. These effects are accentuated when individuals pursue di...

Rapid Assessment of Ecosystem Service Co-Benefits of Biodiversity Priority Areas in Madagascar

PubMed Central

Andriamaro, Luciano; Cano, Carlos Andres; Grantham, Hedley S.; Hole, David; Juhn, Daniel; McKinnon, Madeleine; Rasolohery, Andriambolantsoa; Steininger, Marc; Wright, Timothy Max

2016-01-01

The importance of ecosystems for supporting human well-being is increasingly recognized by both the conservation and development sectors. Our ability to conserve ecosystems that people rely on is often limited by a lack of spatially explicit data on the location and distribution of ecosystem services (ES), the benefits provided by nature to people. Thus there is a need to map ES to guide conservation investments, to ensure these co-benefits are maintained. To target conservation investments most effectively, ES assessments must be rigorous enough to support conservation planning, rapid enough to respond to decision-making timelines, and often must rely on existing data. We developed a framework for rapid spatial assessment of ES that relies on expert and stakeholder consultation, available data, and spatial analyses in order to rapidly identify sites providing multiple benefits. We applied the framework in Madagascar, a country with globally significant biodiversity and a high level of human dependence on ecosystems. Our objective was to identify the ES co-benefits of biodiversity priority areas in order to guide the investment strategy of a global conservation fund. We assessed key provisioning (fisheries, hunting and non-timber forest products, and water for domestic use, agriculture, and hydropower), regulating (climate mitigation, flood risk reduction and coastal protection), and cultural (nature tourism) ES. We also conducted multi-criteria analyses to identify sites providing multiple benefits. While our approach has limitations, including the reliance on proximity-based indicators for several ES, the results were useful for targeting conservation investments by the Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund (CEPF). Because our approach relies on available data, standardized methods for linking ES provision to ES use, and expert validation, it has the potential to quickly guide conservation planning and investment decisions in other data-poor regions. PMID:28006005

Web-services-based spatial decision support system to facilitate nuclear waste siting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, L. Xinglai; Sheng, Grant

2006-10-01

The availability of spatial web services enables data sharing among managers, decision and policy makers and other stakeholders in much simpler ways than before and subsequently has created completely new opportunities in the process of spatial decision making. Though generally designed for a certain problem domain, web-services-based spatial decision support systems (WSDSS) can provide a flexible problem-solving environment to explore the decision problem, understand and refine problem definition, and generate and evaluate multiple alternatives for decision. This paper presents a new framework for the development of a web-services-based spatial decision support system. The WSDSS is comprised of distributed web services that either have their own functions or provide different geospatial data and may reside in different computers and locations. WSDSS includes six key components, namely: database management system, catalog, analysis functions and models, GIS viewers and editors, report generators, and graphical user interfaces. In this study, the architecture of a web-services-based spatial decision support system to facilitate nuclear waste siting is described as an example. The theoretical, conceptual and methodological challenges and issues associated with developing web services-based spatial decision support system are described.

Prioritizing landscapes for longleaf pine conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grand, James B.; Kleiner, Kevin J.

2016-01-01

We developed a spatially explicit model and map, as a decision support tool (DST), to aid conservation agencies creating or maintaining open pine ecosystems. The tool identified areas that are likely to provide the greatest benefit to focal bird populations based on a comprehensive landscape analysis. We used NLCD 2011, SSURGO, and SEGAP data to map the density of desired resources for open pine ecosystems and six focal species of birds and 2 reptiles within the historic range of longleaf pine east of the Mississippi River. Binary rasters were created of sites with desired characteristics such as land form, hydrology, land use and land cover, soils, potential habitat for focal species, and putative source populations of focal species. Each raster was smoothed using a kernel density estimator. Rasters were combined and scaled to map priority locations for the management of each focal species. Species’ rasters were combined and scaled to provide maps of overall priority for birds and for birds and reptiles. The spatial data can be used to identify high priority areas for conservation or to compare areas under consideration for maintenance or creation of open pine ecosystems.

Soliciting scientific information and beliefs in predictive modeling and adaptive management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glynn, P. D.; Voinov, A. A.; Shapiro, C. D.

2015-12-01

Post-normal science requires public engagement and adaptive corrections in addressing issues with high complexity and uncertainty. An adaptive management framework is presented for the improved management of natural resources and environments through a public participation process. The framework solicits the gathering and transformation and/or modeling of scientific information but also explicitly solicits the expression of participant beliefs. Beliefs and information are compared, explicitly discussed for alignments or misalignments, and ultimately melded back together as a "knowledge" basis for making decisions. An effort is made to recognize the human or participant biases that may affect the information base and the potential decisions. In a separate step, an attempt is made to recognize and predict the potential "winners" and "losers" (perceived or real) of any decision or action. These "winners" and "losers" include present human communities with different spatial, demographic or socio-economic characteristics as well as more dispersed or more diffusely characterized regional or global communities. "Winners" and "losers" may also include future human communities as well as communities of other biotic species. As in any adaptive management framework, assessment of predictions, iterative follow-through and adaptation of policies or actions is essential, and commonly very difficult or impossible to achieve. Recognizing beforehand the limits of adaptive management is essential. More generally, knowledge of the behavioral and economic sciences and of ethics and sociology will be key to a successful implementation of this adaptive management framework. Knowledge of biogeophysical processes will also be essential, but by definition of the issues being addressed, will always be incomplete and highly uncertain. The human dimensions of the issues addressed and the participatory processes used carry their own complexities and uncertainties. Some ideas and principles are provided that may help guide and implement the proposed adaptive management framework and its public and stakeholder engagement processes. Examples and characteristics of issues that could be beneficially addressed through the proposed framework will also be presented.

Protocol and practice in the adaptive management of waterfowl harvests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, F.; Williams, K.

1999-01-01

Waterfowl harvest management in North America, for all its success, historically has had several shortcomings, including a lack of well-defined objectives, a failure to account for uncertain management outcomes, and inefficient use of harvest regulations to understand the effects of management. To address these and other concerns, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service began implementation of adaptive harvest management in 1995. Harvest policies are now developed using a Markov decision process in which there is an explicit accounting for uncontrolled environmental variation, partial controllability of harvest, and structural uncertainty in waterfowl population dynamics. Current policies are passively adaptive, in the sense that any reduction in structural uncertainty is an unplanned by-product of the regulatory process. A generalization of the Markov decision process permits the calculation of optimal actively adaptive policies, but it is not yet clear how state-specific harvest actions differ between passive and active approaches. The Markov decision process also provides managers the ability to explore optimal levels of aggregation or "management scale" for regulating harvests in a system that exhibits high temporal, spatial, and organizational variability. Progress in institutionalizing adaptive harvest management has been remarkable, but some managers still perceive the process as a panacea, while failing to appreciate the challenges presented by this more explicit and methodical approach to harvest regulation. Technical hurdles include the need to develop better linkages between population processes and the dynamics of landscapes, and to model the dynamics of structural uncertainty in a more comprehensive fashion. From an institutional perspective, agreement on how to value and allocate harvests continues to be elusive, and there is some evidence that waterfowl managers have overestimated the importance of achievement-oriented factors in setting hunting regulations. Indeed, it is these unresolved value judgements, and the lack of an effective structure for organizing debate, that present the greatest threat to adaptive harvest management as a viable means for coping with management uncertainty. Copyright ?? 1999 by The Resilience Alliance.

Bridging the gap between climate change and maritime security: Towards a comprehensive framework for planning.

PubMed

Mazaris, Antonios D; Germond, Basil

2018-09-01

For the past two decades, the need to shield strategic maritime interests, to tackle criminality and terrorism at or from the sea and to conserve valuable marine resources has been recognized at the highest political level. Acknowledging and accounting for the interplay between climate change, the vulnerability of coastal populations and the occurrence of maritime criminality should be part of any ocean governance process. Still, given the complex interactions between climate change and socio-economic components of the marine realm, it has become urgent to establish a solid methodological framework, which could lead to sound and effective decisions. We propose that any such framework should not be built from scratch. The adaptation of well tested, existing uncertainty-management tools, such as Cumulative Effect Assessments, could serve as a solid basis to account for the magnitude and directionality of the dependencies between the impacts of climate change and the occurrence of maritime criminality, offering spatial explicit risk evaluations. Multi-Criteria Decision Making could then be employed to better and faster inform decision-makers. These mechanisms could provide a framework for comparison of alternative mitigation and adaptation actions and are essential in assessing responses to tackle maritime crime in the context of climate change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating carnivore community structures

PubMed Central

Jiménez, José; Nuñez-Arjona, Juan Carlos; Rueda, Carmen; González, Luis Mariano; García-Domínguez, Francisco; Muñoz-Igualada, Jaime; López-Bao, José Vicente

2017-01-01

Obtaining reliable estimates of the structure of carnivore communities is of paramount importance because of their ecological roles, ecosystem services and impact on biodiversity conservation, but they are still scarce. This information is key for carnivore management: to build support for and acceptance of management decisions and policies it is crucial that those decisions are based on robust and high quality information. Here, we combined camera and live-trapping surveys, as well as telemetry data, with spatially-explicit Bayesian models to show the usefulness of an integrated multi-method and multi-model approach to monitor carnivore community structures. Our methods account for imperfect detection and effectively deal with species with non-recognizable individuals. In our Mediterranean study system, the terrestrial carnivore community was dominated by red foxes (0.410 individuals/km2); Egyptian mongooses, feral cats and stone martens were similarly abundant (0.252, 0.249 and 0.240 individuals/km2, respectively), whereas badgers and common genets were the least common (0.130 and 0.087 individuals/km2, respectively). The precision of density estimates improved by incorporating multiple covariates, device operation, and accounting for the removal of individuals. The approach presented here has substantial implications for decision-making since it allows, for instance, the evaluation, in a standard and comparable way, of community responses to interventions. PMID:28120871

SOCIO-ETHICAL ISSUES IN PERSONALIZED MEDICINE: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF ENGLISH LANGUAGE HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENTS OF GENE EXPRESSION PROFILING TESTS FOR BREAST CANCER PROGNOSIS.

PubMed

Ali-Khan, Sarah E; Black, Lee; Palmour, Nicole; Hallett, Michael T; Avard, Denise

2015-01-01

There have been multiple calls for explicit integration of ethical, legal, and social issues (ELSI) in health technology assessment (HTA) and addressing ELSI has been highlighted as key in optimizing benefits in the Omics/Personalized Medicine field. This study examines HTAs of an early clinical example of Personalized Medicine (gene expression profile tests [GEP] for breast cancer prognosis) aiming to: (i) identify ELSI; (ii) assess whether ELSIs are implicitly or explicitly addressed; and (iii) report methodology used for ELSI integration. A systematic search for HTAs (January 2004 to September 2012), followed by descriptive and qualitative content analysis. Seventeen HTAs for GEP were retrieved. Only three (18%) explicitly presented ELSI, and only one reported methodology. However, all of the HTAs included implicit ELSI. Eight themes of implicit and explicit ELSI were identified. "Classical" ELSI including privacy, informed consent, and concerns about limited patient/clinician genetic literacy were always presented explicitly. Some ELSI, including the need to understand how individual patients' risk tolerances affect clinical decision-making after reception of GEP results, were presented both explicitly and implicitly in HTAs. Others, such as concern about evidentiary deficiencies for clinical utility of GEP tests, occurred only implicitly. Despite a wide variety of important ELSI raised, these were rarely explicitly addressed in HTAs. Explicit treatment would increase their accessibility to decision-makers, and may augment HTA efficiency maximizing their utility. This is particularly important where complex Personalized Medicine applications are rapidly expanding choices for patients, clinicians and healthcare systems.

Designing a Hydro-Economic Collaborative Computer Decision Support System: Approaches, Best Practices, Lessons Learned, and Future Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenberg, D. E.

2008-12-01

Designing and implementing a hydro-economic computer model to support or facilitate collaborative decision making among multiple stakeholders or users can be challenging and daunting. Collaborative modeling is distinguished and more difficult than non-collaborative efforts because of a large number of users with different backgrounds, disagreement or conflict among stakeholders regarding problem definitions, modeling roles, and analysis methods, plus evolving ideas of model scope and scale and needs for information and analysis as stakeholders interact, use the model, and learn about the underlying water system. This presentation reviews the lifecycle for collaborative model making and identifies some key design decisions that stakeholders and model developers must make to develop robust and trusted, verifiable and transparent, integrated and flexible, and ultimately useful models. It advances some best practices to implement and program these decisions. Among these best practices are 1) modular development of data- aware input, storage, manipulation, results recording and presentation components plus ways to couple and link to other models and tools, 2) explicitly structure both input data and the meta data that describes data sources, who acquired it, gaps, and modifications or translations made to put the data in a form usable by the model, 3) provide in-line documentation on model inputs, assumptions, calculations, and results plus ways for stakeholders to document their own model use and share results with others, and 4) flexibly program with graphical object-oriented properties and elements that allow users or the model maintainers to easily see and modify the spatial, temporal, or analysis scope as the collaborative process moves forward. We draw on examples of these best practices from the existing literature, the author's prior work, and some new applications just underway. The presentation concludes by identifying some future directions for collaborative modeling including geo-spatial display and analysis, real-time operations, and internet-based tools plus the design and programming needed to implement these capabilities.

Ethnic bias and clinical decision-making among New Zealand medical students: an observational study.

PubMed

Harris, Ricci; Cormack, Donna; Stanley, James; Curtis, Elana; Jones, Rhys; Lacey, Cameron

2018-01-23

Health professional racial/ethnic bias may impact on clinical decision-making and contribute to subsequent ethnic health inequities. However, limited research has been undertaken among medical students. This paper presents findings from the Bias and Decision-Making in Medicine (BDMM) study, which sought to examine ethnic bias (Māori (indigenous peoples) compared with New Zealand European) among medical students and associations with clinical decision-making. All final year New Zealand (NZ) medical students in 2014 and 2015 (n = 888) were invited to participate in a cross-sectional online study. Key components included: two chronic disease vignettes (cardiovascular disease (CVD) and depression) with randomized patient ethnicity (Māori or NZ European) and questions on patient management; implicit bias measures (an ethnicity preference Implicit Association Test (IAT) and an ethnicity and compliant patient IAT); and, explicit ethnic bias questions. Associations between ethnic bias and clinical decision-making responses to vignettes were tested using linear regression. Three hundred and two students participated (34% response rate). Implicit and explicit ethnic bias favoring NZ Europeans was apparent among medical students. In the CVD vignette, no significant differences in clinical decision-making by patient ethnicity were observed. There were also no differential associations by patient ethnicity between any measures of ethnic bias (implicit or explicit) and patient management responses in the CVD vignette. In the depression vignette, some differences in the ranking of recommended treatment options were observed by patient ethnicity and explicit preference for NZ Europeans was associated with increased reporting that NZ European patients would benefit from treatment but not Māori (slope difference 0.34, 95% CI 0.08, 0.60; p = 0.011), although this was the only significant finding in these analyses. NZ medical students demonstrated ethnic bias, although overall this was not associated with clinical decision-making. This study both adds to the small body of literature internationally on racial/ethnic bias among medical students and provides relevant and important information for medical education on indigenous health and ethnic health inequities in New Zealand.

Equity in healthcare resource allocation decision making: A systematic review.

PubMed

Lane, Haylee; Sarkies, Mitchell; Martin, Jennifer; Haines, Terry

2017-02-01

To identify elements of endorsed definitions of equity in healthcare and classify domains of these definitions so that policy makers, managers, clinicians, and politicians can form an operational definition of equity that reflects the values and preferences of the society they serve. Systematic review where verbatim text describing explicit and implicit definitions of equity were extracted and subjected to a thematic analysis. The full holdings of the AMED, CINAHL plus, OVID Medline, Scopus, PsychInfo and ProQuest (ProQuest Health & Medical Complete, ProQuest Nursing and Allied Health Source, ProQuest Social Science Journals) were individually searched in April 2015. Studies were included if they provided an original, explicit or implicit definition of equity in regards to healthcare resource allocation decision making. Papers that only cited earlier definitions of equity and provided no new information or extensions to this definition were excluded. The search strategy yielded 74 papers appropriate for this review; 60 of these provided an explicit definition of equity, with a further 14 papers discussing implicit elements of equity that the authors endorsed in regards to healthcare resource allocation decision making. FIVE KEY THEMES EMERGED: i) Equalisation across the health service supply/access/outcome chain, ii) Need or potential to benefit, iii) Groupings of equalisation, iv) Caveats to equalisation, and v) Close enough is good enough. There is great inconsistency in definitions of equity endorsed by different authors. Operational definitions of equity need to be more explicit in addressing these five thematic areas before they can be directly applied to healthcare resource allocation decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shared Spatial Representations for Numbers and Space: The Reversal of the SNARC and the Simon Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Notebaert, Wim; Gevers, Wim; Verguts, Tom; Fias, Wim

2006-01-01

In 4 experiments, the authors investigated the reversal of spatial congruency effects when participants concurrently practiced incompatible mapping rules (J. G. Marble & R. W. Proctor, 2000). The authors observed an effect of an explicit spatially incompatible mapping rule on the way numerical information was associated with spatial responses. The…

Open space preservation, property value, and optimal spatial configuration

Treesearch

Yong Jiang; Stephen K. Swallow

2007-01-01

The public has increasingly demonstrated a strong support for open space preservation. How to finance the socially efficient level of open space with the optimal spatial structure is of high policy relevance to local governments. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit open space model to help identify the socially optimal amount and optimal spatial...

Promotion of Spatial Skills in Chemistry and Biochemistry Education at the College Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oliver-Hoyo, Maria; Babilonia-Rosa, Melissa A.

2017-01-01

Decades of research have demonstrated the correlation of spatial abilities to chemistry achievement and career selection. Nonetheless, reviews have highlighted the need and scarcity of explicit spatial instruction to promote spatial skills. Therefore, the goal of this literature review is to summarize what has been done during the past decade in…

How Far Is "Near"? Inferring Distance from Spatial Descriptions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carlson, Laura A.; Covey, Eric S.

2005-01-01

A word may mean different things in different contexts. The current study explored the changing denotations of spatial terms, focusing on how the distance inferred from a spatial description varied as a function of the size of the objects being spatially related. We examined both terms that explicitly convey distance (i.e., topological terms such…

Valuing investments in sustainable land management using an integrated modelling framework to support a watershed conservation scheme in the Upper Tana River, Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunink, Johannes E.; Bryant, Benjamin P.; Vogl, Adrian; Droogers, Peter

2015-04-01

We analyse the multiple impacts of investments in sustainable land use practices on ecosystem services in the Upper Tana basin (Kenya) to support a watershed conservation scheme (a "water fund"). We apply an integrated modelling framework, building on previous field-based and modelling studies in the basin, and link biophysical outputs to economic benefits for the main actors in the basin. The first step in the modelling workflow is the use of a high-resolution spatial prioritization tool (Resource Investment Optimization System -- RIOS) to allocate the type and location of conservation investments in the different subbasins, subject to budget constraints and stakeholder concerns. We then run the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the RIOS-identified investment scenarios to produce spatially explicit scenarios that simulate changes in water yield and suspended sediment. Finally, in close collaboration with downstream water users (urban water supply and hydropower) we link those biophysical outputs to monetary metrics, including: reduced water treatment costs, increased hydropower production, and crop yield benefits for upstream farmers in the conservation area. We explore how different budgets and different spatial targeting scenarios influence the return of the investments and the effectiveness of the water fund scheme. This study is novel in that it presents an integrated analysis targeting interventions in a decision context that takes into account local environmental and socio-economic conditions, and then relies on detailed, process-based, biophysical models to demonstrate the economic return on those investments. We conclude that the approach allows for an analysis on different spatial and temporal scales, providing conclusive evidence to stakeholders and decision makers on the contribution and benefits of the land-based investments in this basin. This is serving as foundational work to support the implementation of the Upper Tana-Nairobi Water Fund, a public-private partnership to safeguard ecosystem service provision and food security.

Addressing uncertainty in modelling cumulative impacts within maritime spatial planning in the Adriatic and Ionian region.

PubMed

Gissi, Elena; Menegon, Stefano; Sarretta, Alessandro; Appiotti, Federica; Maragno, Denis; Vianello, Andrea; Depellegrin, Daniel; Venier, Chiara; Barbanti, Andrea

2017-01-01

Maritime spatial planning (MSP) is envisaged as a tool to apply an ecosystem-based approach to the marine and coastal realms, aiming at ensuring that the collective pressure of human activities is kept within acceptable limits. Cumulative impacts (CI) assessment can support science-based MSP, in order to understand the existing and potential impacts of human uses on the marine environment. A CI assessment includes several sources of uncertainty that can hinder the correct interpretation of its results if not explicitly incorporated in the decision-making process. This study proposes a three-level methodology to perform a general uncertainty analysis integrated with the CI assessment for MSP, applied to the Adriatic and Ionian Region (AIR). We describe the nature and level of uncertainty with the help of expert judgement and elicitation to include all of the possible sources of uncertainty related to the CI model with assumptions and gaps related to the case-based MSP process in the AIR. Next, we use the results to tailor the global uncertainty analysis to spatially describe the uncertainty distribution and variations of the CI scores dependent on the CI model factors. The results show the variability of the uncertainty in the AIR, with only limited portions robustly identified as the most or the least impacted areas under multiple model factors hypothesis. The results are discussed for the level and type of reliable information and insights they provide to decision-making. The most significant uncertainty factors are identified to facilitate the adaptive MSP process and to establish research priorities to fill knowledge gaps for subsequent planning cycles. The method aims to depict the potential CI effects, as well as the extent and spatial variation of the data and scientific uncertainty; therefore, this method constitutes a suitable tool to inform the potential establishment of the precautionary principle in MSP.

Mapping the ecosystem service delivery chain: Capacity, flow, and demand pertaining to aesthetic experiences in mountain landscapes.

PubMed

Egarter Vigl, Lukas; Depellegrin, Daniel; Pereira, Paulo; de Groot, Rudolf; Tappeiner, Ulrike

2017-01-01

Accounting for the spatial connectivity between the provision of ecosystem services (ES) and their beneficiaries (supply-benefit chain) is fundamental to understanding ecosystem functioning and its management. However, the interrelationships of the specific chain links within ecosystems and the actual benefits that flow from natural landscapes to surrounding land have rarely been analyzed. We present a spatially explicit model for the analysis of one cultural ecosystem service (aesthetic experience), which integrates the complete ecosystem service delivery chain for Puez-Geisler Nature Park (Italy): (1) The potential service stock (ES capacity) relies on an expert-based land use ranking matrix, (2) the actual supply (ES flow) is based on visibility properties of observation points along recreational routes, (3) the beneficiaries of the service (ES demand) are derived from socioeconomic data as a measure of the visitation rate to the recreation location, and (4) the supply-demand relationship (ES budget) addresses the spatially explicit oversupply and undersupply of ES. The results indicate that potential ES stocks are substantially higher in core and buffer zones of protected areas than in surrounding land owing to the specific landscape composition. ES flow maps reveal service delivery to 80% of the total area studied, with the highest actual service supply to locations with long and open vistas. ES beneficiary analyses show the highest demand for aesthetic experiences in all-season tourist destinations like Val Badia and Val Gardena, where both recreational amenity and overnight stays are equally high. ES budget maps identify ES hot and cold spots in terms of ES delivery, and they highlight ES undersupply in nature protection buffer zones although they are characterized by highest ES capacity. We show how decision/policy makers can use the presented methodology to plan landscape protection measures and develop specific regulation strategies for visitors based on the ES delivery chain concept. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Naturalistic Inquiry into Praxis When Education Instructors Use Explicit Metacognitive Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shannon, Nancy Gayle

2014-01-01

This naturalistic inquiry brought together six education instructors in one small teacher preparation program to explore what happens to educational instructors' praxis when the education instructors use explicit metacognitive modeling to reveal their thinking behind their pedagogical decision-making. The participants, while teaching an…

Catchment-scale Validation of a Physically-based, Post-fire Runoff and Erosion Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, D.; Brooks, E. S.; Robichaud, P. R.; Dobre, M.; Brown, R. E.; Wagenbrenner, J.

2017-12-01

The cascading consequences of fire-induced ecological changes have profound impacts on both natural and managed forest ecosystems. Forest managers tasked with implementing post-fire mitigation strategies need robust tools to evaluate the effectiveness of their decisions, particularly those affecting hydrological recovery. Various hillslope-scale interfaces of the physically-based Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model have been successfully validated for this purpose using fire-effected plot experiments, however these interfaces are explicitly designed to simulate single hillslopes. Spatially-distributed, catchment-scale WEPP interfaces have been developed over the past decade, however none have been validated for post-fire simulations, posing a barrier to adoption for forest managers. In this validation study, we compare WEPP simulations with pre- and post-fire hydrological records for three forested catchments (W. Willow, N. Thomas, and S. Thomas) that burned in the 2011 Wallow Fire in Northeastern Arizona, USA. Simulations were conducted using two approaches; the first using automatically created inputs from an online, spatial, post-fire WEPP interface, and the second using manually created inputs which incorporate the spatial variability of fire effects observed in the field. Both approaches were compared to five years of observed post-fire sediment and flow data to assess goodness of fit.

INDIVIDUAL BASED MODELLING APPROACH TO THERMAL ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Diadromous fish populations in the Pacific Northwest face challenges along their migratory routes from declining habitat quality, harvest, and barriers to longitudinal connectivity. Changes in river temperature regimes are producing an additional challenge for upstream migrating adult salmon and steelhead, species that are sensitive to absolute and cumulative thermal exposure. Adult salmon populations have been shown to utilize cold water patches along migration routes when mainstem river temperatures exceed thermal optimums. We are employing an individual based model (IBM) to explore the costs and benefits of spatially-distributed cold water refugia for adult migrating salmon. Our model, developed in the HexSim platform, is built around a mechanistic behavioral decision tree that drives individual interactions with their spatially explicit simulated environment. Population-scale responses to dynamic thermal regimes, coupled with other stressors such as disease and harvest, become emergent properties of the spatial IBM. Other model outputs include arrival times, species-specific survival rates, body energetic content, and reproductive fitness levels. Here, we discuss the challenges associated with parameterizing an individual based model of salmon and steelhead in a section of the Columbia River. Many rivers and streams in the Pacific Northwest are currently listed as impaired under the Clean Water Act as a result of high summer water temperatures. Adverse effec

On Spatially Explicit Models of Epidemic and Endemic Cholera: The Haiti and Lake Kivu Case Studies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinaldo, A.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Finger, F.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

2014-12-01

The first part of the Lecture deals with the predictive ability of mechanistic models for the Haitian cholera epidemic. Predictive models of epidemic cholera need to resolve at suitable aggregation levels spatial data pertaining to local communities, epidemiological records, hydrologic drivers, waterways, patterns of human mobility and proxies of exposure rates. A formal model comparison framework provides a quantitative assessment of the explanatory and predictive abilities of various model settings with different spatial aggregation levels. Intensive computations and objective model comparisons show that parsimonious spatially explicit models accounting for spatial connections have superior explanatory power than spatially disconnected ones for short-to intermediate calibration windows. In general, spatially connected models show better predictive ability than disconnected ones. We suggest limits and validity of the various approaches and discuss the pathway towards the development of case-specific predictive tools in the context of emergency management. The second part deals with approaches suitable to describe patterns of endemic cholera. Cholera outbreaks have been reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo since the 1970s. Here we employ a spatially explicit, inhomogeneous Markov chain model to describe cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of lake Kivu. Remotely sensed datasets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers in addition to baseline seasonality. The effect of human mobility is also modelled mechanistically. We test several models on a multi-year dataset of reported cholera cases. Fourteen models, accounting for different environmental drivers, are selected in calibration. Among these, the one accounting for seasonality, El Nino Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility outperforms the others in cross-validation.

Psychophysiological arousal and inter‐ and intraindividual differences in risk‐sensitive decision making

PubMed Central

Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Clark, Luke

2016-01-01

Abstract The current study assessed peripheral responses during decision making under explicit risk, and tested whether intraindividual variability in choice behavior can be explained by fluctuations in peripheral arousal. Electrodermal activity (EDA) and heart rate (HR) were monitored in healthy volunteers (N = 68) during the Roulette Betting Task. In this task, participants were presented with risky gambles to bet on, with the chances of winning varying across trials. Hierarchical Bayesian analyses demonstrated that EDA and HR acceleration responses during the decision phase were sensitive to the chances of winning. Interindividual differences in this peripheral reactivity during risky decision making were related to trait sensitivity to punishment and trait sensitivity to reward. Moreover, trial‐by‐trial variation in EDA and HR acceleration responses predicted a small portion of intraindividual variability in betting choices. Our results show that psychophysiological responses are sensitive to explicit risk and can help explain intraindividual heterogeneity in choice behavior. PMID:26927730

The spatial structure of chronic morbidity: evidence from UK census returns.

PubMed

Dutey-Magni, Peter F; Moon, Graham

2016-08-24

Disease prevalence models have been widely used to estimate health, lifestyle and disability characteristics for small geographical units when other data are not available. Yet, knowledge is often lacking about how to make informed decisions around the specification of such models, especially regarding spatial assumptions placed on their covariance structure. This paper is concerned with understanding processes of spatial dependency in unexplained variation in chronic morbidity. 2011 UK census data on limiting long-term illness (LLTI) is used to look at the spatial structure in chronic morbidity across England and Wales. The variance and spatial clustering of the odds of LLTI across local authority districts (LADs) and middle layer super output areas are measured across 40 demographic cross-classifications. A series of adjacency matrices based on distance, contiguity and migration flows are tested to examine the spatial structure in LLTI. Odds are then modelled using a logistic mixed model to examine the association with district-level covariates and their predictive power. The odds of chronic illness are more dispersed than local age characteristics, mortality, hospitalisation rates and chance alone would suggest. Of all adjacency matrices, the three-nearest neighbour method is identified as the best fitting. Migration flows can also be used to construct spatial weights matrices which uncover non-negligible autocorrelation. Once the most important characteristics observable at the LAD-level are taken into account, substantial spatial autocorrelation remains which can be modelled explicitly to improve disease prevalence predictions. Systematic investigation of spatial structures and dependency is important to develop model-based estimation tools in chronic disease mapping. Spatial structures reflecting migration interactions are easy to develop and capture autocorrelation in LLTI. Patterns of spatial dependency in the geographical distribution of LLTI are not comparable across ethnic groups. Ethnic stratification of local health information is needed and there is potential to further address complexity in prevalence models by improving access to disaggregated data.

Modeling spatial variation in avian survival and residency probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saracco, James F.; Royle, J. Andrew; DeSante, David F.; Gardner, Beth

2010-01-01

The importance of understanding spatial variation in processes driving animal population dynamics is widely recognized. Yet little attention has been paid to spatial modeling of vital rates. Here we describe a hierarchical spatial autoregressive model to provide spatially explicit year-specific estimates of apparent survival (phi) and residency (pi) probabilities from capture-recapture data. We apply the model to data collected on a declining bird species, Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), as part of a broad-scale bird-banding network, the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. The Wood Thrush analysis showed variability in both phi and pi among years and across space. Spatial heterogeneity in residency probability was particularly striking, suggesting the importance of understanding the role of transients in local populations. We found broad-scale spatial patterning in Wood Thrush phi and pi that lend insight into population trends and can direct conservation and research. The spatial model developed here represents a significant advance over approaches to investigating spatial pattern in vital rates that aggregate data at coarse spatial scales and do not explicitly incorporate spatial information in the model. Further development and application of hierarchical capture-recapture models offers the opportunity to more fully investigate spatiotemporal variation in the processes that drive population changes.

Spatial Contiguity and Incidental Learning in Multimedia Environments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paek, Seungoh; Hoffman, Daniel L.; Saravanos, Antonios

2017-01-01

Drawing on dual-process theories of cognitive function, the degree to which spatial contiguity influences incidental learning outcomes was examined. It was hypothesized that spatial contiguity would mediate what was learned even in the absence of an explicit learning goal. To test this hypothesis, 149 adults completed a multimedia-related task…

Utility of computer simulations in landscape genetics

Treesearch

Bryan K. Epperson; Brad H. McRae; Kim Scribner; Samuel A. Cushman; Michael S. Rosenberg; Marie-Josee Fortin; Patrick M. A. James; Melanie Murphy; Stephanie Manel; Pierre Legendre; Mark R. T. Dale

2010-01-01

Population genetics theory is primarily based on mathematical models in which spatial complexity and temporal variability are largely ignored. In contrast, the field of landscape genetics expressly focuses on how population genetic processes are affected by complex spatial and temporal environmental heterogeneity. It is spatially explicit and relates patterns to...

Spatial allocation of forest recreation value

Treesearch

Kenneth A. Baerenklau; Armando Gonzalez-Caban; Catrina Paez; Edgard Chavez

2009-01-01

Non-market valuation methods and geographic information systems are useful planning and management tools for public land managers. Recent attention has been given to investigation and demonstration of methods for combining these tools to provide spatially-explicit representations of non-market value. Most of these efforts have focused on spatial allocation of...

Information gathering, management and transferring for geospatial intelligence - A conceptual approach to create a spatial data infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, Paulo; Correia, Anacleto; Teodoro, M. Filomena

2017-06-01

Since long ago, information is a key factor for military organizations. In military context the success of joint and combined operations depends on the accurate information and knowledge flow concerning the operational theatre: provision of resources, environment evolution, targets' location, where and when an event will occur. Modern military operations cannot be conceive without maps and geospatial information. Staffs and forces on the field request large volume of information during the planning and execution process, horizontal and vertical geospatial information integration is critical for decision cycle. Information and knowledge management are fundamental to clarify an environment full of uncertainty. Geospatial information (GI) management rises as a branch of information and knowledge management, responsible for the conversion process from raw data collect by human or electronic sensors to knowledge. Geospatial information and intelligence systems allow us to integrate all other forms of intelligence and act as a main platform to process and display geospatial-time referenced events. Combining explicit knowledge with person know-how to generate a continuous learning cycle that supports real time decisions, mitigates the influences of fog of war and provides the knowledge supremacy. This paper presents the analysis done after applying a questionnaire and interviews about the GI and intelligence management in a military organization. The study intended to identify the stakeholder's requirements for a military spatial data infrastructure as well as the requirements for a future software system development.

Cross scale interactions, nonlinearities, and forecasting catastrophic events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peters, Debra P.C.; Pielke, Roger A.; Bestelmeyer, Brandon T.; Allen, Craig D.; Munson-McGee, Stuart; Havstad, Kris M.

2004-01-01

Catastrophic events share characteristic nonlinear behaviors that are often generated by cross-scale interactions and feedbacks among system elements. These events result in surprises that cannot easily be predicted based on information obtained at a single scale. Progress on catastrophic events has focused on one of the following two areas: nonlinear dynamics through time without an explicit consideration of spatial connectivity [Holling, C. S. (1992) Ecol. Monogr. 62, 447–502] or spatial connectivity and the spread of contagious processes without a consideration of cross-scale interactions and feedbacks [Zeng, N., Neeling, J. D., Lau, L. M. & Tucker, C. J. (1999) Science 286, 1537–1540]. These approaches rarely have ventured beyond traditional disciplinary boundaries. We provide an interdisciplinary, conceptual, and general mathematical framework for understanding and forecasting nonlinear dynamics through time and across space. We illustrate the generality and usefulness of our approach by using new data and recasting published data from ecology (wildfires and desertification), epidemiology (infectious diseases), and engineering (structural failures). We show that decisions that minimize the likelihood of catastrophic events must be based on cross-scale interactions, and such decisions will often be counterintuitive. Given the continuing challenges associated with global change, approaches that cross disciplinary boundaries to include interactions and feedbacks at multiple scales are needed to increase our ability to predict catastrophic events and develop strategies for minimizing their occurrence and impacts. Our framework is an important step in developing predictive tools and designing experiments to examine cross-scale interactions.

Morphological similarities between DBM and a microeconomic model of sprawl

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caruso, Geoffrey; Vuidel, Gilles; Cavailhès, Jean; Frankhauser, Pierre; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle

2011-03-01

We present a model that simulates the growth of a metropolitan area on a 2D lattice. The model is dynamic and based on microeconomics. Households show preferences for nearby open spaces and neighbourhood density. They compete on the land market. They travel along a road network to access the CBD. A planner ensures the connectedness and maintenance of the road network. The spatial pattern of houses, green spaces and road network self-organises, emerging from agents individualistic decisions. We perform several simulations and vary residential preferences. Our results show morphologies and transition phases that are similar to Dieletric Breakdown Models (DBM). Such similarities were observed earlier by other authors, but we show here that it can be deducted from the functioning of the land market and thus explicitly connected to urban economic theory.

The PANTHER User Experience

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coram, Jamie L.; Morrow, James D.; Perkins, David Nikolaus

2015-09-01

This document describes the PANTHER R&D Application, a proof-of-concept user interface application developed under the PANTHER Grand Challenge LDRD. The purpose of the application is to explore interaction models for graph analytics, drive algorithmic improvements from an end-user point of view, and support demonstration of PANTHER technologies to potential customers. The R&D Application implements a graph-centric interaction model that exposes analysts to the algorithms contained within the GeoGraphy graph analytics library. Users define geospatial-temporal semantic graph queries by constructing search templates based on nodes, edges, and the constraints among them. Users then analyze the results of the queries using bothmore » geo-spatial and temporal visualizations. Development of this application has made user experience an explicit driver for project and algorithmic level decisions that will affect how analysts one day make use of PANTHER technologies.« less

Modeling the spatial and temporal variability in climate and primary productivity across the Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico.

Treesearch

Hongqing Wanga; Charles A.S. Halla; Frederick N. Scatenab; Ned Fetcherc; Wei Wua

2003-01-01

There are few studies that have examined the spatial variability of forest productivity over an entire tropical forested landscape. In this study, we used a spatially-explicit forest productivity model, TOPOPROD, which is based on the FORESTBGC model, to simulate spatial patterns of gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), and respiration over...

Developmental changes in decision making under risk: The role of executive functions and reasoning abilities in 8- to 19-year-old decision makers.

PubMed

Schiebener, Johannes; García-Arias, María; García-Villamisar, Domingo; Cabanyes-Truffino, Javier; Brand, Matthias

2015-01-01

Previous studies have shown that children and adolescents often tend toward risky decisions despite explicit knowledge about the potential negative consequences. This phenomenon has been suggested to be associated with the immaturity of brain areas involved in cognitive control functions. Particularly, "frontal lobe functions," such as executive functions and reasoning, mature until young adulthood and are thought to be involved in age-related changes in decision making under explicit risk conditions. We investigated 112 participants, aged 8-19 years, with a frequently used task assessing decisions under risk, the Game of Dice Task (GDT). Additionally, we administered the Modified Card Sorting Test assessing executive functioning (categorization, cognitive flexibility, and strategy maintenance) as well as the Ravens Progressive Matrices assessing reasoning. The results showed that risk taking in the GDT decreased with increasing age and this effect was not moderated by reasoning but by executive functions: Particularly, young persons with weak executive functioning showed very risky decision making. Thus, the individual maturation of executive functions, associated with areas in the prefrontal cortex, seems to be an important factor in young peoples' behavior in risky decision-making situations.

High-Order Space-Time Methods for Conservation Laws

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huynh, H. T.

2013-01-01

Current high-order methods such as discontinuous Galerkin and/or flux reconstruction can provide effective discretization for the spatial derivatives. Together with a time discretization, such methods result in either too small a time step size in the case of an explicit scheme or a very large system in the case of an implicit one. To tackle these problems, two new high-order space-time schemes for conservation laws are introduced: the first is explicit and the second, implicit. The explicit method here, also called the moment scheme, achieves a Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) condition of 1 for the case of one-spatial dimension regardless of the degree of the polynomial approximation. (For standard explicit methods, if the spatial approximation is of degree p, then the time step sizes are typically proportional to 1/p(exp 2)). Fourier analyses for the one and two-dimensional cases are carried out. The property of super accuracy (or super convergence) is discussed. The implicit method is a simplified but optimal version of the discontinuous Galerkin scheme applied to time. It reduces to a collocation implicit Runge-Kutta (RK) method for ordinary differential equations (ODE) called Radau IIA. The explicit and implicit schemes are closely related since they employ the same intermediate time levels, and the former can serve as a key building block in an iterative procedure for the latter. A limiting technique for the piecewise linear scheme is also discussed. The technique can suppress oscillations near a discontinuity while preserving accuracy near extrema. Preliminary numerical results are shown

Towards a minimal stochastic model for a large class of diffusion-reactions on biological membranes.

PubMed

Chevalier, Michael W; El-Samad, Hana

2012-08-28

Diffusion of biological molecules on 2D biological membranes can play an important role in the behavior of stochastic biochemical reaction systems. Yet, we still lack a fundamental understanding of circumstances where explicit accounting of the diffusion and spatial coordinates of molecules is necessary. In this work, we illustrate how time-dependent, non-exponential reaction probabilities naturally arise when explicitly accounting for the diffusion of molecules. We use the analytical expression of these probabilities to derive a novel algorithm which, while ignoring the exact position of the molecules, can still accurately capture diffusion effects. We investigate the regions of validity of the algorithm and show that for most parameter regimes, it constitutes an accurate framework for studying these systems. We also document scenarios where large spatial fluctuation effects mandate explicit consideration of all the molecules and their positions. Taken together, our results derive a fundamental understanding of the role of diffusion and spatial fluctuations in these systems. Simultaneously, they provide a general computational methodology for analyzing a broad class of biological networks whose behavior is influenced by diffusion on membranes.

Using spatially explicit surveillance models to provide confidence in the eradication of an invasive ant

PubMed Central

Ward, Darren F.; Anderson, Dean P.; Barron, Mandy C.

2016-01-01

Effective detection plays an important role in the surveillance and management of invasive species. Invasive ants are very difficult to eradicate and are prone to imperfect detection because of their small size and cryptic nature. Here we demonstrate the use of spatially explicit surveillance models to estimate the probability that Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) have been eradicated from an offshore island site, given their absence across four surveys and three surveillance methods, conducted since ant control was applied. The probability of eradication increased sharply as each survey was conducted. Using all surveys and surveillance methods combined, the overall median probability of eradication of Argentine ants was 0.96. There was a high level of confidence in this result, with a high Credible Interval Value of 0.87. Our results demonstrate the value of spatially explicit surveillance models for the likelihood of eradication of Argentine ants. We argue that such models are vital to give confidence in eradication programs, especially from highly valued conservation areas such as offshore islands. PMID:27721491

Systems Modeling at Multiple Levels of Regulation: Linking Systems and Genetic Networks to Spatially Explicit Plant Populations

PubMed Central

Kitchen, James L.; Allaby, Robin G.

2013-01-01

Selection and adaptation of individuals to their underlying environments are highly dynamical processes, encompassing interactions between the individual and its seasonally changing environment, synergistic or antagonistic interactions between individuals and interactions amongst the regulatory genes within the individual. Plants are useful organisms to study within systems modeling because their sedentary nature simplifies interactions between individuals and the environment, and many important plant processes such as germination or flowering are dependent on annual cycles which can be disrupted by climate behavior. Sedentism makes plants relevant candidates for spatially explicit modeling that is tied in with dynamical environments. We propose that in order to fully understand the complexities behind plant adaptation, a system that couples aspects from systems biology with population and landscape genetics is required. A suitable system could be represented by spatially explicit individual-based models where the virtual individuals are located within time-variable heterogeneous environments and contain mutable regulatory gene networks. These networks could directly interact with the environment, and should provide a useful approach to studying plant adaptation. PMID:27137364

Multilayer networks reveal the spatial structure of seed-dispersal interactions across the Great Rift landscapes.

PubMed

Timóteo, Sérgio; Correia, Marta; Rodríguez-Echeverría, Susana; Freitas, Helena; Heleno, Ruben

2018-01-10

Species interaction networks are traditionally explored as discrete entities with well-defined spatial borders, an oversimplification likely impairing their applicability. Using a multilayer network approach, explicitly accounting for inter-habitat connectivity, we investigate the spatial structure of seed-dispersal networks across the Gorongosa National Park, Mozambique. We show that the overall seed-dispersal network is composed by spatially explicit communities of dispersers spanning across habitats, functionally linking the landscape mosaic. Inter-habitat connectivity determines spatial structure, which cannot be accurately described with standard monolayer approaches either splitting or merging habitats. Multilayer modularity cannot be predicted by null models randomizing either interactions within each habitat or those linking habitats; however, as habitat connectivity increases, random processes become more important for overall structure. The importance of dispersers for the overall network structure is captured by multilayer versatility but not by standard metrics. Highly versatile species disperse many plant species across multiple habitats, being critical to landscape functional cohesion.

The Stabilizing Effect of Spacetime Expansion on Relativistic Fluids With Sharp Results for the Radiation Equation of State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Speck, Jared

2013-07-01

In this article, we study the 1 + 3-dimensional relativistic Euler equations on a pre-specified conformally flat expanding spacetime background with spatial slices that are diffeomorphic to {R}^3. We assume that the fluid verifies the equation of state {p = c2s ρ,} where {0 ≤ cs ≤ √{1/3}} is the speed of sound. We also assume that the reciprocal of the scale factor associated with the expanding spacetime metric verifies a c s -dependent time-integrability condition. Under these assumptions, we use the vector field energy method to prove that an explicit family of physically motivated, spatially homogeneous, and spatially isotropic fluid solutions are globally future-stable under small perturbations of their initial conditions. The explicit solutions corresponding to each scale factor are analogs of the well-known spatially flat Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker family. Our nonlinear analysis, which exploits dissipative terms generated by the expansion, shows that the perturbed solutions exist for all future times and remain close to the explicit solutions. This work is an extension of previous results, which showed that an analogous stability result holds when the spacetime is exponentially expanding. In the case of the radiation equation of state p = (1/3)ρ, we also show that if the time-integrability condition for the reciprocal of the scale factor fails to hold, then the explicit fluid solutions are unstable. More precisely, we show the existence of an open family of initial data such that (i) it contains arbitrarily small smooth perturbations of the explicit solutions' data and (ii) the corresponding perturbed solutions necessarily form shocks in finite time. The shock formation proof is based on the conformal invariance of the relativistic Euler equations when {c2s = 1/3,} which allows for a reduction to a well-known result of Christodoulou.

Effects of spatial variability and scale on areal -average evapotranspiration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Famiglietti, J. S.; Wood, Eric F.

1993-01-01

This paper explores the effect of spatial variability and scale on areally-averaged evapotranspiration. A spatially-distributed water and energy balance model is employed to determine the effect of explicit patterns of model parameters and atmospheric forcing on modeled areally-averaged evapotranspiration over a range of increasing spatial scales. The analysis is performed from the local scale to the catchment scale. The study area is King's Creek catchment, an 11.7 sq km watershed located on the native tallgrass prairie of Kansas. The dominant controls on the scaling behavior of catchment-average evapotranspiration are investigated by simulation, as is the existence of a threshold scale for evapotranspiration modeling, with implications for explicit versus statistical representation of important process controls. It appears that some of our findings are fairly general, and will therefore provide a framework for understanding the scaling behavior of areally-averaged evapotranspiration at the catchment and larger scales.

An Ecosystem Service Evaluation Tool to Support Ridge-to-Reef Management and Conservation in Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oleson, K.; Callender, T.; Delevaux, J. M. S.; Falinski, K. A.; Htun, H.; Jin, G.

2014-12-01

Faced with increasing anthropogenic stressors and diverse stakeholders, local managers are adopting a ridge-to-reef and multi-objective management approach to restore declining coral reef health state. An ecosystem services framework, which integrates ecological indicators and stakeholder values, can foster more applied and integrated research, data collection, and modeling, and thus better inform the decision-making process and realize decision outcomes grounded in stakeholders' values. Here, we describe a research program that (i) leverages remotely sensed and empirical data to build an ecosystem services-based decision-support tool geared towards ridge-to-reef management; and (ii) applies it as part of a structured, value-based decision-making process to inform management in west Maui, a NOAA coral reef conservation priority site. The tool links terrestrial and marine biophysical models in a spatially explicit manner to quantify and map changes in ecosystem services delivery resulting from management actions, projected climate change impacts, and adaptive responses. We couple model outputs with localized valuation studies to translate ecosystem service outcomes into benefits and their associated socio-cultural and/or economic values. Managers can use this tool to run scenarios during their deliberations to evaluate trade-offs, cost-effectiveness, and equity implications of proposed policies. Ultimately, this research program aims at improving the effectiveness, efficiency, and equity outcomes of ecosystem-based management. This presentation will describe our approach, summarize initial results from the terrestrial modeling and economic valuations for west Maui, and highlight how this decision support tool benefits managers in west Maui.

Differential Fairness Decisions and Brain Responses after Expressed Emotions of Others in Boys with Autism Spectrum Disorders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klapwijk, Eduard T.; Aghajani, Moji; Lelieveld, Gert-Jan; van Lang, Natasja D. J.; Popma, Arne; van der Wee, Nic J. A.; Colins, Olivier F.; Vermeiren, Robert R. J. M.

2017-01-01

Little is known about how emotions expressed by others influence social decisions and associated brain responses in autism spectrum disorders (ASD). We investigated the neural mechanisms underlying fairness decisions in response to explicitly expressed emotions of others in boys with ASD and typically developing (TD) boys. Participants with ASD…

Decisions from Experience: Why Small Samples?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hertwig, Ralph; Pleskac, Timothy J.

2010-01-01

In many decisions we cannot consult explicit statistics telling us about the risks involved in our actions. In lieu of such data, we can arrive at an understanding of our dicey options by sampling from them. The size of the samples that we take determines, ceteris paribus, how good our choices will be. Studies of decisions from experience have…

[Factors behind action, emotion, and decision making].

PubMed

Watanabe, Katsumi

2009-12-01

Human actions, emotions, and decision making are products of complex interactions between explicit and implicit processes at various levels of spatial and temporal scales. Although it may not be possible to obtain to experimental data for all the complexity of human behavioral and emotional processes in our everyday life, recent studies have investigated the effects of social contexts on actions, emotions, and decision making; these studies include those in the fields of experimental psychology, cognitive science, and neuroscience. In this paper, we review several empirical studies that exemplify how our actions, social emotions, and decision making are influenced by the presence of implicit external, rather than internal factors, particularly by presence of other individuals. The following are the main principles identified. (1) Unconscious behavioral contagion: Individuals tend to mimic others' actions. This tendency occurs unconsciously even when the observed and the to-be-executed movements are unrelated at various levels and aspects of behaviors (e. g., behavioral tempo and speed). (2) Neural substrates of social emotions: Various social emotions, including admiration, compassion, envy, and schadenfreude, are represented in neuronal networks that are similar to those of basic emotional processes. (3) Evasive nature of human decision making: Individuals tend to overrate their own subjective impression of and emotional reaction in forecasting affective reaction to events in the future, even though the predictive power of information from peer group is much larger in this regard. Individuals are seldom aware of the dissociation between their intended choice and excuted actions and are willing to give elaborate explanations for the choices they, in fact, did not make. Using these empirical examples, I will illustrate the considerable influences of implicit, unconscious processes on human actions, emotions, and decision making.

Characterizing forest fragments in boreal, temperate, and tropical ecosystems

Treesearch

Arjan J. H. Meddens; Andrew T. Hudak; Jeffrey S. Evans; William A. Gould; Grizelle Gonzalez

2008-01-01

An increased ability to analyze landscapes in a spatial manner through the use of remote sensing leads to improved capabilities for quantifying human-induced forest fragmentation. Developments of spatially explicit methods in landscape analyses are emerging. In this paper, the image delineation software program eCognition and the spatial pattern analysis program...

Spatiality and the Place of the Material in Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGregor, Jane

2004-01-01

Drawing on a research study into the spatiality of teachers' workplaces, this article explores the "concrete realities" of the artefact-filled world with which teachers, support staff and students interact, and considers the way in which networks of people and things order the spaces of the school. Spatiality is examined explicitly in…

Attending to space within and between objects: Implications from a patient with Balint’s syndrome

PubMed Central

Robertson, Lynn C.; Treisman, Anne

2007-01-01

Neuropsychological conditions such as Balint’s syndrome have shown that perceptual organization of parts into a perceptual unit can be dissociated from the ability to localize objects relative to each other. Neural mechanisms that code the spatial structure within individual objects or words may seem to be intact, while between-object structure is compromised. Here we investigate the nature of within-object spatial processing in a patient with Balint’s syndrome (RM). We suggest that within-object spatial structure can be determined (a) directly by explicit spatial processing of between-part relations, mediated by the same dorsal pathway as between-object spatial relations; or (b) indirectly by the discrimination of object identities, which may involve implicit processing of between-part relations and which is probably mediated by the ventral system. When this route is ruled out, by testing discrimination of differences in part location that do not change the identity of the object, we find no evidence of explicit within-object spatial coding in a patient without functioning parietal lobes. PMID:21049339

Exploring the Content of Intraoperative Teaching.

PubMed

Pernar, Luise I M; Peyre, Sarah E; Hasson, Rian M; Lipsitz, Stuart; Corso, Katherine; Ashley, Stanley W; Breen, Elizabeth M

2016-01-01

Much teaching to surgical residents takes place in the operating room (OR). The explicit content of what is taught in the OR, however, has not previously been described. This study investigated the content of what is taught in the OR, specifically during laparoscopic cholecystectomies (LCs), for which a cognitive task analysis (CTA), explicitly delineating individual steps, was available in the literature. A checklist of necessary technical and decision-making steps to be executed during performance of LCs, anchored in the previously published CTA, was developed. A convenience sample of LCs was identified over a 12-month period from February 2011 to February 2012. Using the checklist, a trained observer recorded explicit teaching that occurred regarding these steps during each observed case. All observations were tallied and analyzed. In all, 51 LCs were observed; 14 surgery attendings and 33 residents participated in the observed cases. Of 1042 observable teaching points, only 560 (53.7%) were observed during the study period. As a proportion of all observable steps, technical steps were observed more frequently, 377 (67.3%), than decision-making steps, 183 (32.7%). Also when focusing on technical and decision-making steps alone, technical steps were taught more frequently (60.9% vs 43.3%). Only approximately half of all possible observable teaching steps were explicitly taught during LCs in this study. Technical steps were more frequently taught than decision-making steps. These findings may have important implications: a better understanding of the content of intraoperative teaching would allow educators to steer residents' preoperative preparation, modulate intraoperative instruction by members of the surgical faculty, and guide residents to the most appropriate teaching venues. Copyright © 2015 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

IDESSA: An Integrative Decision Support System for Sustainable Rangeland Management in Southern African Savannas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Hanna; Authmann, Christian; Dreber, Niels; Hess, Bastian; Kellner, Klaus; Morgenthal, Theunis; Nauss, Thomas; Seeger, Bernhard; Tsvuura, Zivanai; Wiegand, Kerstin

2017-04-01

Bush encroachment is a syndrome of land degradation that occurs in many savannas including those of southern Africa. The increase in density, cover or biomass of woody vegetation often has negative effects on a range of ecosystem functions and services, which are hardly reversible. However, despite its importance, neither the causes of bush encroachment, nor the consequences of different resource management strategies to combat or mitigate related shifts in savanna states are fully understood. The project "IDESSA" (An Integrative Decision Support System for Sustainable Rangeland Management in Southern African Savannas) aims to improve the understanding of the complex interplays between land use, climate patterns and vegetation dynamics and to implement an integrative monitoring and decision-support system for the sustainable management of different savanna types. For this purpose, IDESSA follows an innovative approach that integrates local knowledge, botanical surveys, remote-sensing and machine-learning based time-series of atmospheric and land-cover dynamics, spatially explicit simulation modeling and analytical database management. The integration of the heterogeneous data will be implemented in a user oriented database infrastructure and scientific workflow system. Accessible via web-based interfaces, this database and analysis system will allow scientists to manage and analyze monitoring data and scenario computations, as well as allow stakeholders (e. g. land users, policy makers) to retrieve current ecosystem information and seasonal outlooks. We present the concept of the project and show preliminary results of the realization steps towards the integrative savanna management and decision-support system.

Explicit and spontaneous retrieval of emotional scenes: electrophysiological correlates.

PubMed

Weymar, Mathias; Bradley, Margaret M; El-Hinnawi, Nasryn; Lang, Peter J

2013-10-01

When event-related potentials (ERP) are measured during a recognition task, items that have previously been presented typically elicit a larger late (400-800 ms) positive potential than new items. Recent data, however, suggest that emotional, but not neutral, pictures show ERP evidence of spontaneous retrieval when presented in a free-viewing task (Ferrari, Bradley, Codispoti, Karlsson, & Lang, 2012). In two experiments, we further investigated the brain dynamics of implicit and explicit retrieval. In Experiment 1, brain potentials were measured during a semantic categorization task, which did not explicitly probe episodic memory, but which, like a recognition task, required an active decision and a button press, and were compared to those elicited during recognition and free viewing. Explicit recognition prompted a late enhanced positivity for previously presented, compared with new, pictures regardless of hedonic content. In contrast, only emotional pictures showed an old-new difference when the task did not explicitly probe episodic memory, either when making an active categorization decision regarding picture content, or when simply viewing pictures. In Experiment 2, however, neutral pictures did prompt a significant old-new ERP difference during subsequent free viewing when emotionally arousing pictures were not included in the encoding set. These data suggest that spontaneous retrieval is heightened for salient cues, perhaps reflecting heightened attention and elaborative processing at encoding.

Explicit and spontaneous retrieval of emotional scenes: Electrophysiological correlates

PubMed Central

Weymar, Mathias; Bradley, Margaret M.; El-Hinnawi, Nasryn; Lang, Peter J.

2014-01-01

When event-related potentials are measured during a recognition task, items that have previously been presented typically elicit a larger late (400–800 ms) positive potential than new items. Recent data, however, suggest that emotional, but not neutral, pictures show ERP evidence of spontaneous retrieval when presented in a free-viewing task (Ferrari, Bradley, Codispoti & Lang, 2012). In two experiments, we further investigated the brain dynamics of implicit and explicit retrieval. In Experiment 1, brain potentials were measured during a semantic categorization task, which did not explicitly probe episodic memory, but which, like a recognition task, required an active decision and a button press, and were compared to those elicited during recognition and free viewing. Explicit recognition prompted a late enhanced positivity for previously presented, compared to new, pictures regardless of hedonic content. In contrast, only emotional pictures showed an old-new difference when the task did not explicitly probe episodic memory, either when either making an active categorization decision regarding picture content, or when simply viewing pictures. In Experiment 2, however, neutral pictures did prompt a significant old-new ERP difference during subsequent free viewing when emotionally arousing pictures were not included in the encoding set. These data suggest that spontaneous retrieval is heightened for salient cues, perhaps reflecting heightened attention and elaborative processing at encoding. PMID:23795588

Rotational wind indicator enhances control of rotated displays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cunningham, H. A.; Pavel, Misha

1991-01-01

Rotation by 108 deg of the spatial mapping between a visual display and a manual input device produces large spatial errors in a discrete aiming task. These errors are not easily corrected by voluntary mental effort, but the central nervous system does adapt gradually to the new mapping. Bernotat (1970) showed that adding true hand position to a 90 deg rotated display improved performance of a compensatory tracking task, but tracking error rose again upon removal of the explicit cue. This suggests that the explicit error signal did not induce changes in the neural mapping, but rather allowed the operator to reduce tracking error using a higher mental strategy. In this report, we describe an explicit visual display enhancement applied to a 108 deg rotated discrete aiming task. A 'wind indicator' corresponding to the effect of the mapping rotation is displayed on the operator-controlled cursor. The human operator is instructed to oppose the virtual force represented by the indicator, as one would do if flying an airplane in a crosswind. This enhancement reduces spatial aiming error in the first 10 minutes of practice by an average of 70 percent when compared to a no enhancement control condition. Moreover, it produces adaptation aftereffect, which is evidence of learning by neural adaptation rather than by mental strategy. Finally, aiming error does not rise upon removal of the explicit cue.

Water Accounting Plus (WA+) - a water accounting procedure for complex river basins based on satellite measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi, P.; Bastiaanssen, W. G. M.; Molden, D.

2012-11-01

Coping with the issue of water scarcity and growing competition for water among different sectors requires proper water management strategies and decision processes. A pre-requisite is a clear understanding of the basin hydrological processes, manageable and unmanageable water flows, the interaction with land use and opportunities to mitigate the negative effects and increase the benefits of water depletion on society. Currently, water professionals do not have a common framework that links hydrological flows to user groups of water and their benefits. The absence of a standard hydrological and water management summary is causing confusion and wrong decisions. The non-availability of water flow data is one of the underpinning reasons for not having operational water accounting systems for river basins in place. In this paper we introduce Water Accounting Plus (WA+), which is a new framework designed to provide explicit spatial information on water depletion and net withdrawal processes in complex river basins. The influence of land use on the water cycle is described explicitly by defining land use groups with common characteristics. Analogous to financial accounting, WA+ presents four sheets including (i) a resource base sheet, (ii) a consumption sheet, (iii) a productivity sheet, and (iv) a withdrawal sheet. Every sheet encompasses a set of indicators that summarize the overall water resources situation. The impact of external (e.g. climate change) and internal influences (e.g. infrastructure building) can be estimated by studying the changes in these WA+ indicators. Satellite measurements can be used for 3 out of the 4 sheets, but is not a precondition for implementing WA+ framework. Data from hydrological models and water allocation models can also be used as inputs to WA+.

Passing the Bubble: Cognitive Efficiency of Augmented Video for Collaborative Transfer of Situational Understanding

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-01-01

media factors affecting: • Shared Understanding – explicit and operational knowledge • Decision-Making – what information format best helps decision...Passing the Bubble: Cognitive Efficiency of Augmented Video for Collaborative Transfer of Situational Understanding Collaboration and Knowledge ...operational knowledge ? • Informed Decision-Making – what information format is best to pass the bubble to a decision-maker 1/14/2003 ONR David Kirsh

REVIEW OF SIMULATION METHODS FOR SPATIALLY-EXPLICIT POPULATION-LEVEL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Factors that significantly impact population dynamics, such as resource availability and exposure to stressors, frequently vary over space and thereby determine the heterogeneous spatial distributions of organisms. Considering this fact, the US Environmental Protection Agency's ...

Spatially explicit control of invasive species using a reaction-diffusion model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bonneau, Mathieu; Johnson, Fred A.; Romagosa, Christina M.

2016-01-01

Invasive species, which can be responsible for severe economic and environmental damages, must often be managed over a wide area with limited resources, and the optimal allocation of effort in space and time can be challenging. If the spatial range of the invasive species is large, control actions might be applied only on some parcels of land, for example because of property type, accessibility, or limited human resources. Selecting the locations for control is critical and can significantly impact management efficiency. To help make decisions concerning the spatial allocation of control actions, we propose a simulation based approach, where the spatial distribution of the invader is approximated by a reaction–diffusion model. We extend the classic Fisher equation to incorporate the effect of control both in the diffusion and local growth of the invader. The modified reaction–diffusion model that we propose accounts for the effect of control, not only on the controlled locations, but on neighboring locations, which are based on the theoretical speed of the invasion front. Based on simulated examples, we show the superiority of our model compared to the state-of-the-art approach. We illustrate the use of this model for the management of Burmese pythons in the Everglades (Florida, USA). Thanks to the generality of the modified reaction–diffusion model, this framework is potentially suitable for a wide class of management problems and provides a tool for managers to predict the effects of different management strategies.

Free and Open Source GIS Tools: Role and Relevance in the Environmental Assessment Community

EPA Science Inventory

The presence of an explicit geographical context in most environmental decisions can complicate assessment and selection of management options. These decisions typically involve numerous data sources, complex environmental and ecological processes and their associated models, ris...

Research on reconstructing spatial distribution of historical cropland over 300 years in traditional cultivated regions of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xuhong; Jin, Xiaobin; Guo, Beibei; Long, Ying; Zhou, Yinkang

2015-05-01

Constructing a spatially explicit time series of historical cultivated land is of upmost importance for climatic and ecological studies that make use of Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) data. Some scholars have made efforts to simulate and reconstruct the quantitative information on historical land use at the global or regional level based on "top-down" decision-making behaviors to match overall cropland area to land parcels using land arability and universal parameters. Considering the concentrated distribution of cultivated land and various factors influencing cropland distribution, including environmental and human factors, this study developed a "bottom-up" model of historical cropland based on constrained Cellular Automaton (CA). Our model takes a historical cropland area as an external variable and the cropland distribution in 1980 as the maximum potential scope of historical cropland. We selected elevation, slope, water availability, average annual precipitation, and distance to the nearest rural settlement as the main influencing factors of land use suitability. Then, an available labor force index is used as a proxy for the amount of cropland to inspect and calibrate these spatial patterns. This paper applies the model to a traditional cultivated region in China and reconstructs its spatial distribution of cropland during 6 periods. The results are shown as follows: (1) a constrained CA is well suited for simulating and reconstructing the spatial distribution of cropland in China's traditional cultivated region. (2) Taking the different factors affecting spatial pattern of cropland into consideration, the partitioning of the research area effectively reflected the spatial differences in cropland evolution rules and rates. (3) Compared with "HYDE datasets", this research has formed higher-resolution Boolean spatial distribution datasets of historical cropland with a more definitive concept of spatial pattern in terms of fractional format. We conclude that our reconstruction is closer to the actual change pattern of the traditional cultivated region in China.

Examining the occupancy–density relationship for a low-density carnivore

USGS Publications Warehouse

Linden, Daniel W.; Fuller, Angela K.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hare, Matthew P.

2017-01-01

The challenges associated with monitoring low-density carnivores across large landscapes have limited the ability to implement and evaluate conservation and management strategies for such species. Non-invasive sampling techniques and advanced statistical approaches have alleviated some of these challenges and can even allow for spatially explicit estimates of density, one of the most valuable wildlife monitoring tools.For some species, individual identification comes at no cost when unique attributes (e.g. pelage patterns) can be discerned with remote cameras, while other species require viable genetic material and expensive laboratory processing for individual assignment. Prohibitive costs may still force monitoring efforts to use species distribution or occupancy as a surrogate for density, which may not be appropriate under many conditions.Here, we used a large-scale monitoring study of fisher Pekania pennanti to evaluate the effectiveness of occupancy as an approximation to density, particularly for informing harvest management decisions. We combined remote cameras with baited hair snares during 2013–2015 to sample across a 70 096-km2 region of western New York, USA. We fit occupancy and Royle–Nichols models to species detection–non-detection data collected by cameras, and spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models to individual encounter data obtained by genotyped hair samples. Variation in the state variables within 15-km2 grid cells was modelled as a function of landscape attributes known to influence fisher distribution.We found a close relationship between grid cell estimates of fisher state variables from the models using detection–non-detection data and those from the SCR model, likely due to informative spatial covariates across a large landscape extent and a grid cell resolution that worked well with the movement ecology of the species. Fisher occupancy and density were both positively associated with the proportion of coniferous-mixed forest and negatively associated with road density. As a result, spatially explicit management recommendations for fisher were similar across models, though relative variation was dampened for the detection–non-detection data.Synthesis and applications. Our work provides empirical evidence that models using detection–non-detection data can make similar inferences regarding relative spatial variation of the focal population to models using more expensive individual encounters when the selected spatial grain approximates or is marginally smaller than home range size. When occupancy alone is chosen as a cost-effective state variable for monitoring, simulation and sensitivity analyses should be used to understand how inferences from detection–non-detection data will be affected by aspects of study design and species ecology.

Primary motor cortex contributes to the implementation of implicit value-based rules during motor decisions.

PubMed

Derosiere, Gerard; Zénon, Alexandre; Alamia, Andrea; Duque, Julie

2017-02-01

In the present study, we investigated the functional contribution of the human primary motor cortex (M1) to motor decisions. Continuous theta burst stimulation (cTBS) was used to alter M1 activity while participants performed a decision-making task in which the reward associated with the subjects' responses (right hand finger movements) depended on explicit and implicit value-based rules. Subjects performed the task over two consecutive days and cTBS occurred in the middle of Day 2, once the subjects were just about to implement implicit rules, in addition to the explicit instructions, to choose their responses, as evident in the control group (cTBS over the right somatosensory cortex). Interestingly, cTBS over the left M1 prevented subjects from implementing the implicit value-based rule while its implementation was enhanced in the group receiving cTBS over the right M1. Hence, cTBS had opposite effects depending on whether it was applied on the contralateral or ipsilateral M1. The use of the explicit value-based rule was unaffected by cTBS in the three groups of subject. Overall, the present study provides evidence for a functional contribution of M1 to the implementation of freshly acquired implicit rules, possibly through its involvement in a cortico-subcortical network controlling value-based motor decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Drugs to End Life without an Explicit Request of the Patient

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rietjens, Judith A.C.; Bilsen, Johan; Fischer, Susanne; van der Heide, Agnes; van der Maas, Paul J.; Miccinessi, Guido; Norup, Michael; Onwuteaka-Philipsen, Bregje D.; Vrakking, Astrid M.; van der Wal, Gerrit.

2007-01-01

A small proportion of deaths result from the use of drugs with the intention to hasten death without an explicit request of the patient. Additional insight into its characteristics is needed for evaluating this practice. In the Netherlands in 2001, questionnaires were mailed to physicians that addressed the decision making that preceded their…

Leveraging human decision making through the optimal management of centralized resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyden, Paul; McGrath, Richard G.

2016-05-01

Combining results from mixed integer optimization, stochastic modeling and queuing theory, we will advance the interdisciplinary problem of efficiently and effectively allocating centrally managed resources. Academia currently fails to address this, as the esoteric demands of each of these large research areas limits work across traditional boundaries. The commercial space does not currently address these challenges due to the absence of a profit metric. By constructing algorithms that explicitly use inputs across boundaries, we are able to incorporate the advantages of using human decision makers. Key improvements in the underlying algorithms are made possible by aligning decision maker goals with the feedback loops introduced between the core optimization step and the modeling of the overall stochastic process of supply and demand. A key observation is that human decision-makers must be explicitly included in the analysis for these approaches to be ultimately successful. Transformative access gives warfighters and mission owners greater understanding of global needs and allows for relationships to guide optimal resource allocation decisions. Mastery of demand processes and optimization bottlenecks reveals long term maximum marginal utility gaps in capabilities.

Rapid Response Tools and Datasets for Post-fire Hydrological Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Mary Ellen; MacDonald, Lee H.; Billmire, Michael; Elliot, William J.; Robichaud, Pete R.

2016-04-01

Rapid response is critical following natural disasters. Flooding, erosion, and debris flows are a major threat to life, property and municipal water supplies after moderate and high severity wildfires. The problem is that mitigation measures must be rapidly implemented if they are to be effective, but they are expensive and cannot be applied everywhere. Fires, runoff, and erosion risks also are highly heterogeneous in space, so there is an urgent need for a rapid, spatially-explicit assessment. Past post-fire modeling efforts have usually relied on lumped, conceptual models because of the lack of readily available, spatially-explicit data layers on the key controls of topography, vegetation type, climate, and soil characteristics. The purpose of this project is to develop a set of spatially-explicit data layers for use in process-based models such as WEPP, and to make these data layers freely available. The resulting interactive online modeling database (http://geodjango.mtri.org/geowepp/) is now operational and publically available for 17 western states in the USA. After a fire, users only need to upload a soil burn severity map, and this is combined with the pre-existing data layers to generate the model inputs needed for spatially explicit models such as GeoWEPP (Renschler, 2003). The development of this online database has allowed us to predict post-fire erosion and various remediation scenarios in just 1-7 days for six fires ranging in size from 4-540 km2. These initial successes have stimulated efforts to further improve the spatial extent and amount of data, and add functionality to support the USGS debris flow model, batch processing for Disturbed WEPP (Elliot et al., 2004) and ERMiT (Robichaud et al., 2007), and to support erosion modeling for other land uses, such as agriculture or mining. The design and techniques used to create the database and the modeling interface are readily repeatable for any area or country that has the necessary topography, climate, soil, and land cover datasets.

The influence of uncertainty and location-specific conditions on the environmental prioritisation of human pharmaceuticals in Europe.

PubMed

Oldenkamp, Rik; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Ragas, Ad M J

2016-05-01

The selection of priority APIs (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) can benefit from a spatially explicit approach, since an API might exceed the threshold of environmental concern in one location, while staying below that same threshold in another. However, such a spatially explicit approach is relatively data intensive and subject to parameter uncertainty due to limited data. This raises the question to what extent a spatially explicit approach for the environmental prioritisation of APIs remains worthwhile when accounting for uncertainty in parameter settings. We show here that the inclusion of spatially explicit information enables a more efficient environmental prioritisation of APIs in Europe, compared with a non-spatial EU-wide approach, also under uncertain conditions. In a case study with nine antibiotics, uncertainty distributions of the PAF (Potentially Affected Fraction) of aquatic species were calculated in 100∗100km(2) environmental grid cells throughout Europe, and used for the selection of priority APIs. Two APIs have median PAF values that exceed a threshold PAF of 1% in at least one environmental grid cell in Europe, i.e., oxytetracycline and erythromycin. At a tenfold lower threshold PAF (i.e., 0.1%), two additional APIs would be selected, i.e., cefuroxime and ciprofloxacin. However, in 94% of the environmental grid cells in Europe, no APIs exceed either of the thresholds. This illustrates the advantage of following a location-specific approach in the prioritisation of APIs. This added value remains when accounting for uncertainty in parameter settings, i.e., if the 95th percentile of the PAF instead of its median value is compared with the threshold. In 96% of the environmental grid cells, the location-specific approach still enables a reduction of the selection of priority APIs of at least 50%, compared with a EU-wide prioritisation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatially explicit modeling of 1992-2100 land cover and forest stand age for the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Friesz, Aaron M.; Bennett, Stacie L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Wilson, Tamara; Soulard, Christopher E.; Knuppe, Michelle; Van Hofwegen, Travis

2014-01-01

Information on future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is needed to analyze the impact of LULC change on ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey has produced spatially explicit, thematically detailed LULC projections for the conterminous United States. Four qualitative and quantitative scenarios of LULC change were developed, with characteristics consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on 5 Emission Scenarios (SRES). The four quantified scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) served as input to the Forecasting Scenarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) model. Four spatially explicit datasets consistent with scenario storylines were produced for the conterminous United States, with annual LULC maps from 1992 through 2100. The future projections are characterized by a loss of natural land covers in most scenarios, with corresponding expansion of 10 anthropogenic land uses. Along with the loss of natural land covers, remaining natural land covers experience increased fragmentation under most scenarios, with only the B2 scenario remaining relatively stable in both proportion of remaining natural land covers and basic fragmentation measures. Forest stand age was also modeled. By 2100, scenarios and ecoregions with heavy forest cutting have relatively lower mean stand ages compared to those with less 15 forest cutting. Stand ages differ substantially between unprotected and protected forest lands, as well as between different forest classes. The modeled data were compared to the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and other data sources to assess model characteristics. The consistent, spatially explicit, and thematically detailed LULC projections and the associated forest stand age data layers have been used to analyze LULC impacts on carbon and greenhouse gas fluxes, 20 biodiversity, climate and weather variability, hydrologic change, and other ecological processes.

On the spatial heterogeneity of net ecosystem productivity in complex landscapes

Treesearch

Ryan E. Emanuel; Diego A. Riveros-Iregui; Brian L. McGlynn; Howard E. Epstein

2011-01-01

Micrometeorological flux towers provide spatially integrated estimates of net ecosystem production (NEP) of carbon over areas ranging from several hectares to several square kilometers, but they do so at the expense of spatially explicit information within the footprint of the tower. This finer-scale information is crucial for understanding how physical and biological...

Spatial abstraction for autonomous robot navigation.

PubMed

Epstein, Susan L; Aroor, Anoop; Evanusa, Matthew; Sklar, Elizabeth I; Parsons, Simon

2015-09-01

Optimal navigation for a simulated robot relies on a detailed map and explicit path planning, an approach problematic for real-world robots that are subject to noise and error. This paper reports on autonomous robots that rely on local spatial perception, learning, and commonsense rationales instead. Despite realistic actuator error, learned spatial abstractions form a model that supports effective travel.

FUEL3-D: A Spatially Explicit Fractal Fuel Distribution Model

Treesearch

Russell A. Parsons

2006-01-01

Efforts to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of fuels treatments are hampered by inconsistencies between the spatial scale at which fuel treatments are implemented and the spatial scale, and detail, with which we model fire and fuel interactions. Central to this scale inconsistency is the resolution at which variability within the fuel bed is considered. Crown...

A spatial stochastic programming model for timber and core area management under risk of stand-replacing fire

Treesearch

Dung Tuan Nguyen

2012-01-01

Forest harvest scheduling has been modeled using deterministic and stochastic programming models. Past models seldom address explicit spatial forest management concerns under the influence of natural disturbances. In this research study, we employ multistage full recourse stochastic programming models to explore the challenges and advantages of building spatial...

A spatial stochastic programming model for timber and core area management under risk of fires

Treesearch

Yu Wei; Michael Bevers; Dung Nguyen; Erin Belval

2014-01-01

Previous stochastic models in harvest scheduling seldom address explicit spatial management concerns under the influence of natural disturbances. We employ multistage stochastic programming models to explore the challenges and advantages of building spatial optimization models that account for the influences of random stand-replacing fires. Our exploratory test models...

High-resolution infrared thermography for capturing wildland fire behaviour - RxCADRE 2012

Treesearch

Joseph J. O’Brien; E. Louise Loudermilk; Benjamin Hornsby; Andrew T. Hudak; Benjamin C. Bright; Matthew B. Dickinson; J. Kevin Hiers; Casey Teske; Roger D. Ottmar

2016-01-01

Wildland fire radiant energy emission is one of the only measurements of combustion that can be made at wide spatial extents and high temporal and spatial resolutions. Furthermore, spatially and temporally explicit measurements are critical for making inferences about fire effects and useful for examining patterns of fire spread. In this study we describe our...

Using the van Hiele K-12 Geometry Learning Theory to Modify Engineering Mechanics Instruction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sharp, Janet M.; Zachary, Loren W.

2004-01-01

Engineering students use spatial thinking when examining diagrams or models to study structure design. It is expected that most engineering students have solidified spatial thinking skills during K-12 schooling. However, according to what we know about geometry learning and teaching, spatial thinking probably needs to be explicitly taught within…

Design and realization of tourism spatial decision support system based on GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Zhangbao; Qi, Qingwen; Xu, Li

2008-10-01

In this paper, the existing problems of current tourism management information system are analyzed. GIS, tourism as well as spatial decision support system are introduced, and the application of geographic information system technology and spatial decision support system to tourism management and the establishment of tourism spatial decision support system based on GIS are proposed. System total structure, system hardware and software environment, database design and structure module design of this system are introduced. Finally, realization methods of this systemic core functions are elaborated.

Modeling Spatial Dependencies and Semantic Concepts in Data Mining

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vatsavai, Raju

Data mining is the process of discovering new patterns and relationships in large datasets. However, several studies have shown that general data mining techniques often fail to extract meaningful patterns and relationships from the spatial data owing to the violation of fundamental geospatial principles. In this tutorial, we introduce basic principles behind explicit modeling of spatial and semantic concepts in data mining. In particular, we focus on modeling these concepts in the widely used classification, clustering, and prediction algorithms. Classification is the process of learning a structure or model (from user given inputs) and applying the known model to themore » new data. Clustering is the process of discovering groups and structures in the data that are ``similar,'' without applying any known structures in the data. Prediction is the process of finding a function that models (explains) the data with least error. One common assumption among all these methods is that the data is independent and identically distributed. Such assumptions do not hold well in spatial data, where spatial dependency and spatial heterogeneity are a norm. In addition, spatial semantics are often ignored by the data mining algorithms. In this tutorial we cover recent advances in explicitly modeling of spatial dependencies and semantic concepts in data mining.« less

The effects of an 'explicit' values clarification exercise in a woman's decision aid regarding postmenopausal hormone therapy.

PubMed

O'Connor, Annette M.; Wells, George A.; Tugwell, Peter; Laupacis, Andreas; Elmslie, Tom; Drake, Elizabeth

1999-03-01

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the incremental effect of a graphic weigh-scale values clarification exercise to explicitly consider the personal importance of the benefits versus the risks in a woman's decision aid regarding postmenopausal hormone therapy. DESIGN: Randomized controlled trial. Intervention Decision aid including information on options, benefits and risks, and their probabilities either followed by: (1) a graphic weigh-scale values clarification exercise to explicitly consider the personal importance of each benefit and risk; or (2) a summary of the main benefits and risks to implicitly consider benefits versus the risks. SAMPLE: Two-hundred and one women aged 50-69 years from Ottawa, Canada, who had never used hormone therapy. OUTCOME: Perceived clarity of values, a sub-scale of the decisional conflict scale; congruence between personal values of benefits and risks (measured on 0-10 importance rating scale) and choices (accept, decline, unsure regarding preventive hormone therapy [HRT]) using discriminant function analysis. RESULTS: There were no statistically significant differences between interventions in perceived clarity of values and overall congruence between values and choices. Amongst those choosing HRT, there was a trend in those exposed to the graphic weigh-scale exercise to have better congruence between values and choices compared to implicit values clarification (P = 0.06). CONCLUSION: The use of the graphic weigh-scale exercise in a decision aid conveys no overall short-term benefit. Further study is needed to specifically determine effects in those changing the status quo and on the quality of patient-practitioner communication and persistence with decisions.

Inferring the rules of social interaction in migrating caribou.

PubMed

Torney, Colin J; Lamont, Myles; Debell, Leon; Angohiatok, Ryan J; Leclerc, Lisa-Marie; Berdahl, Andrew M

2018-05-19

Social interactions are a significant factor that influence the decision-making of species ranging from humans to bacteria. In the context of animal migration, social interactions may lead to improved decision-making, greater ability to respond to environmental cues, and the cultural transmission of optimal routes. Despite their significance, the precise nature of social interactions in migrating species remains largely unknown. Here we deploy unmanned aerial systems to collect aerial footage of caribou as they undertake their migration from Victoria Island to mainland Canada. Through a Bayesian analysis of trajectories we reveal the fine-scale interaction rules of migrating caribou and show they are attracted to one another and copy directional choices of neighbours, but do not interact through clearly defined metric or topological interaction ranges. By explicitly considering the role of social information on movement decisions we construct a map of near neighbour influence that quantifies the nature of information flow in these herds. These results will inform more realistic, mechanism-based models of migration in caribou and other social ungulates, leading to better predictions of spatial use patterns and responses to changing environmental conditions. Moreover, we anticipate that the protocol we developed here will be broadly applicable to study social behaviour in a wide range of migratory and non-migratory taxa.This article is part of the theme issue 'Collective movement ecology'. © 2018 The Authors.

Turning scientific approaches into practical conservation actions: the case of Comunidad Indigena de Nuevo San Juan Parangaricutiro, Mexico.

PubMed

Velázquez, A; Bocco, G; Torres, A

2001-05-01

Optimum natural resource management and biodiversity conservation are desirable goals. These, however, often exclude each other, since maximum economic benefits have promoted drastic reductions in biodiversity throughout the world. This dilemma confronts local stakeholders, who usually go for maximizing economic inputs, whereas other social (e.g., academic) sectors are favor conservation practices. In this paper we describe the way two scientific approaches--landscape and participatory research--were used to develop sound and durable land use scenarios. These two approaches included expert knowledge of both social and environmental conditions in indigenous communities. Our major emphasis was given to detect spatially explicit land use scenarios and capacity building in order to construct a decision support system operated by stakeholders of the Comunidad Indigena de Nuevo San Juan Parangaricutiro in Mexico. The system for decision-making was fed with data from inventories of both abiotic and biotic biodiversity components. All research, implementation, and monitoring activities were conducted in close collaboration with members of the indigenous community. As a major result we obtained a number of forest alternative uses that favor emerging markets and make this indigenous community less dependent on a single market. Furthermore, skilled members of the community are now running the automated system for decision-making. In conclusion, our results were better expressed as products with direct benefits in local livelihoods rather than pure academic outputs.

Best-worst scaling to assess the most important barriers and facilitators for the use of health technology assessment in Austria.

PubMed

Feig, Chiara; Cheung, Kei Long; Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Evers, Silvia M A A; Simon, Judit; Mayer, Susanne

2018-04-01

Although Health Technology Assessment (HTA) is increasingly used to support evidence-based decision-making in health care, several barriers and facilitators for the use of HTA have been identified. This best-worst scaling (BWS) study aims to assess the relative importance of selected barriers and facilitators of the uptake of HTA studies in Austria. A BWS object case survey was conducted among 37 experts in Austria to assess the relative importance of HTA barriers and facilitators. Hierarchical Bayes estimation was applied, with the best-worst count analysis as sensitivity analysis. Subgroup analyses were also performed on professional role and HTA experience. The most important barriers were 'lack of transparency in the decision-making process', 'fragmentation', 'absence of appropriate incentives', 'no explicit framework for decision-making process', and 'insufficient legal support'. The most important facilitators were 'transparency in the decision-making process', 'availability of relevant HTA research for policy makers', 'availability of explicit framework for decision-making process', 'sufficient legal support', and 'appropriate incentives'. This study suggests that HTA barriers and facilitators related to the context of decision makers, especially 'policy characteristics' and 'organization and resources' are the most important in Austria. A transparent and participatory decision-making process could improve the adoption of HTA evidence.

Decision Performance Using Spatial Decision Support Systems: A Geospatial Reasoning Ability Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erskine, Michael A.

2013-01-01

As many consumer and business decision makers are utilizing Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSS), a thorough understanding of how such decisions are made is crucial for the information systems domain. This dissertation presents six chapters encompassing a comprehensive analysis of the impact of geospatial reasoning ability on…

AUTOMATED GEOSPATIAL WATERSHED ASSESSMENT: A GIS-BASED HYDROLOGIC MODELING TOOL

EPA Science Inventory

Planning and assessment in land and water resource management are evolving toward complex, spatially explicit regional assessments. These problems have to be addressed with distributed models that can compute runoff and erosion at different spatial and temporal scales. The extens...

SPATIAL EXPLICIT POPULATION MODELS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT: COMMON LOONS AND MERCURY AS A CASE STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

Factors that significantly impact population dynamics, such as resource availability and exposure to stressors, frequently vary over space and thereby determine the heterogeneous spatial distributions of organisms. Considering this fact, the US Environmental Protection Agency's ...

Delineating resource sheds in aquatic ecosystems (presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

Analysis of spatially-explicit ecological phenomena in aquatic ecosystems is impeded by a lack of knowledge of, and tools to delimit, spatial patterns of material supply to point locations. Here we apply the concept of "resource sheds" to coasts and watersheds. Resource sheds ar...

A framework for developing objective and measurable recovery criteria for threatened and endangered species.

PubMed

Himes Boor, Gina K

2014-02-01

For species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and National Marine Fisheries Service are tasked with writing recovery plans that include "objective, measurable criteria" that define when a species is no longer at risk of extinction, but neither the act itself nor agency guidelines provide an explicit definition of objective, measurable criteria. Past reviews of recovery plans, including one published in 2012, show that many criteria lack quantitative metrics with clear biological rationale and are not meeting the measureable and objective mandate. I reviewed how objective, measureable criteria have been defined implicitly and explicitly in peer-reviewed literature, the ESA, other U.S. statutes, and legal decisions. Based on a synthesis of these sources, I propose the following 6 standards be used as minimum requirements for objective, measurable criteria: contain a quantitative threshold with calculable units, stipulate a timeframe over which they must be met, explicitly define the spatial extent or population to which they apply, specify a sampling procedure that includes sample size, specify a statistical significance level, and include justification by providing scientific evidence that the criteria define a species whose extinction risk has been reduced to the desired level. To meet these 6 standards, I suggest that recovery plans be explicitly guided by and organized around a population viability modeling framework even if data or agency resources are too limited to complete a viability model. When data and resources are available, recovery criteria can be developed from the population viability model results, but when data and resources are insufficient for model implementation, extinction risk thresholds can be used as criteria. A recovery-planning approach centered on viability modeling will also yield appropriately focused data-acquisition and monitoring plans and will facilitate a seamless transition from recovery planning to delisting. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

The Tacit-Explicit Dimension of the Learning of Mathematics: An Investigation Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frade, Cristina; Borges, Oto

2006-01-01

This paper reports on study that investigated the tacit-explicit dimension of the learning of mathematics. The study was carried out in a secondary school and consisted of an episode analysis related to a class discussion about the difference between plane figures and spatial figures. The data analysis was based on integration between some aspects…

High-resolution assessment of land use impacts on biodiversity in life cycle assessment using species habitat suitability models.

PubMed

de Baan, Laura; Curran, Michael; Rondinini, Carlo; Visconti, Piero; Hellweg, Stefanie; Koellner, Thomas

2015-02-17

Agricultural land use is a main driver of global biodiversity loss. The assessment of land use impacts in decision-support tools such as life cycle assessment (LCA) requires spatially explicit models, but existing approaches are either not spatially differentiated or modeled at very coarse scales (e.g., biomes or ecoregions). In this paper, we develop a high-resolution (900 m) assessment method for land use impacts on biodiversity based on habitat suitability models (HSM) of mammal species. This method considers potential land use effects on individual species, and impacts are weighted by the species' conservation status and global rarity. We illustrate the method using a case study of crop production in East Africa, but the underlying HSMs developed by the Global Mammals Assessment are available globally. We calculate impacts of three major export crops and compare the results to two previously developed methods (focusing on local and regional impacts, respectively) to assess the relevance of the methodological innovations proposed in this paper. The results highlight hotspots of product-related biodiversity impacts that help characterize the links among agricultural production, consumption, and biodiversity loss.

Enhanced monitoring of the temporal and spatial relationships between water demand and water availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, C. A.; Aggett, G. R.; Hattendorf, M. J.

2007-12-01

Better information on evapotranspiration (ET) is essential to better understanding of consumptive use of water by crops. RTi is using NASA Earth-sun System research results and METRIC (Mapping ET at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration) to increase the repeatability and accuracy of consumptive use estimates. METRIC, an image-processing model for calculating ET as a residual of the surface energy balance, utilizes the thermal band on various satellite remote sensors. Calculating actual ET from satellites can avoid many of the assumptions driving other methods of calculating ET over a large area. Because it is physically based and does not rely on explicit knowledge of crop type in the field, a large potential source of error should be eliminated. This paper assesses sources of error in current operational estimates of ET for an area of the South Platte irrigated lands of Colorado, and benchmarks potential improvements in the accuracy of ET estimates gained using METRIC, as well as the processing efficiency of consumptive use demand for large irrigated lands. Examples highlighting how better water planning decisions and water management can be achieved via enhanced monitoring of the temporal and spatial relationships between water demand and water availability are provided.

Role of Spontaneous Brain Activity in Explicit and Implicit Aspects of Cognitive Flexibility under Socially Conflicting Situations: A Resting-state fMRI Study using Fractional Amplitude of Low-frequency Fluctuations.

PubMed

Fujino, Junya; Tei, Shisei; Jankowski, Kathryn F; Kawada, Ryosaku; Murai, Toshiya; Takahashi, Hidehiko

2017-12-26

We are constantly exposed to socially conflicting situations in everyday life, and cognitive flexibility is essential for adaptively coping with such difficulties. Flexible goal choice and pursuit are not exclusively conscious, and therefore cognitive flexibility involves both explicit and implicit forms of processing. However, it is unclear how individual differences in explicit and implicit aspects of flexibility are associated with neural activity in a resting state. Here, we measured intrinsic fractional amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations (fALFF) by resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (RS-fMRI) as an indicator of regional brain spontaneous activity, together with explicit and implicit aspects of cognitive flexibility using the Cognitive Flexibility Scale (CFS) and Implicit Association Test (IAT). Consistent with the dual processing theory, there was a strong association between explicit aspects of flexibility (CFS score) and "rationalism" thinking style and between implicit aspects (IAT effect) and "experientialism." The level of explicit flexibility was also correlated with fALFF values in the left lateral prefrontal cortex, whereas the level of implicit flexibility was correlated with fALFF values in the right cerebellum. Furthermore, the fALFF values in both regions predicted individual preference for flexible decision-making strategy in a vignettes simulation task. These results add to our understanding of the neural mechanisms underlying flexible decision-making for solving social conflicts. More generally, our findings highlight the utility of RS-fMRI combined with both explicit and implicit psychometric measures for better understanding individual differences in social cognition. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Decision-Level Fusion of Spatially Scattered Multi-Modal Data for Nondestructive Inspection of Surface Defects

PubMed Central

Heideklang, René; Shokouhi, Parisa

2016-01-01

This article focuses on the fusion of flaw indications from multi-sensor nondestructive materials testing. Because each testing method makes use of a different physical principle, a multi-method approach has the potential of effectively differentiating actual defect indications from the many false alarms, thus enhancing detection reliability. In this study, we propose a new technique for aggregating scattered two- or three-dimensional sensory data. Using a density-based approach, the proposed method explicitly addresses localization uncertainties such as registration errors. This feature marks one of the major of advantages of this approach over pixel-based image fusion techniques. We provide guidelines on how to set all the key parameters and demonstrate the technique’s robustness. Finally, we apply our fusion approach to experimental data and demonstrate its capability to locate small defects by substantially reducing false alarms under conditions where no single-sensor method is adequate. PMID:26784200

Practical Strategies for Integrating Final Ecosystem Goods and Services into Community Decision-Making.

EPA Science Inventory

The concept of Final Ecosystem Goods and Services (FEGS) explicitly connects ecosystem services to the people that benefit from them. This report presents a number of practical strategies for incorporating FEGS, and more broadly ecosystem services, into the decision-making proces...

Decision-Guided Recommenders with Composite Alternatives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alodhaibi, Khalid

2011-01-01

Recommender systems aim to support users in their decision-making process while interacting with large information spaces and recommend items of interest to users based on preferences they have expressed, either explicitly or implicitly. Recommender systems are increasingly used with product and service selection over the Internet. Although…

Education Finance: Legal Bombshells in West Virginia.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meckley, Richard

1983-01-01

Discusses the history, legal arguments, decision, and fiscal implications of "Pauley v. Bailey," in which a West Virginia circuit court judge's ruling gave explicit and detailed descriptions of a thorough and efficient K-12 education system. Briefly reviews two West Virginia supreme court decisions concerning property assessment…

Identifying Genetic Hotspots by Mapping Molecular Diversity of Widespread Trees: When Commonness Matters.

PubMed

Souto, Cintia P; Mathiasen, Paula; Acosta, María Cristina; Quiroga, María Paula; Vidal-Russell, Romina; Echeverría, Cristian; Premoli, Andrea C

2015-01-01

Conservation planning requires setting priorities at the same spatial scale at which decision-making processes are undertaken considering all levels of biodiversity, but current methods for identifying biodiversity hotspots ignore its genetic component. We developed a fine-scale approach based on the definition of genetic hotspots, which have high genetic diversity and unique variants that represent their evolutionary potential and evolutionary novelties. Our hypothesis is that wide-ranging taxa with similar ecological tolerances, yet of phylogenetically independent lineages, have been and currently are shaped by ecological and evolutionary forces that result in geographically concordant genetic patterns. We mapped previously published genetic diversity and unique variants of biparentally inherited markers and chloroplast sequences for 9 species from 188 and 275 populations, respectively, of the 4 woody dominant families of the austral temperate forest, an area considered a biodiversity hotspot. Spatial distribution patterns of genetic polymorphisms differed among taxa according to their ecological tolerances. Eight genetic hotspots were detected and we recommend conservation actions for some in the southern Coastal Range in Chile. Existing spatially explicit genetic data from multiple populations and species can help to identify biodiversity hotspots and guide conservation actions to establish science-based protected areas that will preserve the evolutionary potential of key habitats and species. © The American Genetic Association 2015. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Spatial and Temporal Trends of Global Pollination Benefit

PubMed Central

Lautenbach, Sven; Seppelt, Ralf; Liebscher, Juliane; Dormann, Carsten F.

2012-01-01

Pollination is a well-studied and at the same time a threatened ecosystem service. A significant part of global crop production depends on or profits from pollination by animals. Using detailed information on global crop yields of 60 pollination dependent or profiting crops, we provide a map of global pollination benefits on a 5′ by 5′ latitude-longitude grid. The current spatial pattern of pollination benefits is only partly correlated with climate variables and the distribution of cropland. The resulting map of pollination benefits identifies hot spots of pollination benefits at sufficient detail to guide political decisions on where to protect pollination services by investing in structural diversity of land use. Additionally, we investigated the vulnerability of the national economies with respect to potential decline of pollination services as the portion of the (agricultural) economy depending on pollination benefits. While the general dependency of the agricultural economy on pollination seems to be stable from 1993 until 2009, we see increases in producer prices for pollination dependent crops, which we interpret as an early warning signal for a conflict between pollination service and other land uses at the global scale. Our spatially explicit analysis of global pollination benefit points to hot spots for the generation of pollination benefits and can serve as a base for further planning of land use, protection sites and agricultural policies for maintaining pollination services. PMID:22563427

[Delineation of ecological security pattern based on ecological network].

PubMed

Fu, Qiang; Gu, Chao Lin

2017-03-18

Ecological network can be used to describe and assess the relationship between spatial organization of landscapes and species survival under the condition of the habitat fragmentation. Taking Qingdao City as the research area, woodland and wetland ecological networks in 2005 were simulated based on least cost path method, and the ecological networks were classified by their corridors' cumulative cost value. We made importance distinction of ecological network structure elements such as patches and corridors using betweenness centrality index and correlation length-percentage of importance of omitted patches index, and then created the structure system of ecological network. Considering the effects brought by the newly-added construction land from 2005 to 2013, we proposed the ecological security pattern for construction land change of Qingdao City. The results showed that based on ecological network framework, graph theory based methods could be used to quantify both attributes of specific ecological land (e.g., the area of an ecological network patch) and functional connection between ecological lands. Between 2005 and 2013, large area of wetlands had been destroyed by newly-added construction land, while the role of specific woodland and wetland played in the connection of the whole network had not been considered. The delineation of ecological security pattern based on ecological network could optimize regional ecological basis, provide accurate spatial explicit decision for ecological conservation and restoration, and meanwhile provide scientific and reasonable space guidance for urban spatial expansion.

The role of perspective taking in how children connect reference frames when explaining astronomical phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plummer, Julia D.; Bower, Corinne A.; Liben, Lynn S.

2016-02-01

This study investigates the role of perspective-taking skills in how children explain spatially complex astronomical phenomena. Explaining many astronomical phenomena, especially those studied in elementary and middle school, requires shifting between an Earth-based description of the phenomena and a space-based reference frame. We studied 7- to 9-year-old children (N = 15) to (a) develop a method for capturing how children make connections between reference frames and to (b) explore connections between perspective-taking skill and the nature of children's explanations. Children's explanations for the apparent motion of the Sun and stars and for seasonal changes in constellations were coded for accuracy of explanation, connection between frames of reference, and use of gesture. Children with higher spatial perspective-taking skills made more explicit connections between reference frames and used certain gesture-types more frequently, although this pattern was evident for only some phenomena. Findings suggest that children - particularly those with lower perspective-taking skills - may need additional support in learning to explicitly connect reference frames in astronomy. Understanding spatial thinking among children who successfully made explicit connections between reference frames in their explanations could be a starting point for future instruction in this domain.

The Role of Low-Spatial Frequencies in Lexical Decision and Masked Priming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boden, C.; Giaschi, D.

2009-01-01

Spatial frequency filtering was used to test the hypotheses that low-spatial frequency information in printed text can: (1) lead to a rapid lexical decision or (2) facilitate word recognition. Adult proficient readers made lexical decisions in unprimed and masked repetition priming experiments with unfiltered, low-pass, high-pass and notch…

Value judgements in the decision-making process for the elderly patient.

PubMed

Ubachs-Moust, J; Houtepen, R; Vos, R; ter Meulen, R

2008-12-01

The question of whether old age should or should not play a role in medical decision-making for the elderly patient is regularly debated in ethics and medicine. In this paper we investigate exactly how age influences the decision-making process. To explore the normative argumentation in the decisions regarding an elderly patient we make use of the argumentation model advanced by Toulmin. By expanding the model in order to identify normative components in the argumentation process it is possible to analyse the way that age-related value judgements influence the medical decision-making process. We apply the model to practice descriptions made by medical students after they had attended consultations and meetings in medical practice during their clinical training. Our results show the pervasive character of age-related value judgements. They influence the physician's decision in several ways and at several points in the decision-making process. Such explicit value judgements were not exclusively used for arguments against further diagnosis or treatment of older patients. We found no systematic "ageist" pattern in the clinical decisions by physicians. Since age plays such an important, yet hidden role in the medical decision-making process, we make a plea for revealing such normative argumentation in order to gain transparency and accountability in this process. An explicit deliberative approach will make the medical decision-making process more transparent and improve the physician-patient relationship, creating confidence and trust, which are at the heart of medical practice.

Spatial taxation effects on regional coal economic activities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, C.W.; Labys, W.C.

1982-01-01

Taxation effects on resource production, consumption and prices are seldom evaluated especially in the field of spatial commodity modeling. The most commonly employed linear programming model has fixed-point estimated demands and capacity constraints; hence it makes taxation effects difficult to be modeled. The second type of resource allocation model, the interregional input-output models does not include a direct and explicit price mechanism. Therefore, it is not suitable for analyzing taxation effects. The third type or spatial commodity model has been econometric in nature. While such an approach has a good deal of flexibility in modeling political and non-economic variables, itmore » treats taxation (or tariff) effects loosely using only dummy variables, and, in many cases, must sacrifice the consistency criterion important for spatial commodity modeling. This leaves model builders only one legitimate choice for analyzing taxation effects: the quadratic programming model which explicitly allows the interplay of regional demand and supply relations via a continuous spatial price constructed by the authors related to the regional demand for and supply of coal from Appalachian markets.« less

A spatially explicit hydro-ecological modeling framework (BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0): Model description and test in a boreal ecosystem in Eastern North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govind, Ajit; Chen, Jing Ming; Margolis, Hank; Ju, Weimin; Sonnentag, Oliver; Giasson, Marc-André

2009-04-01

SummaryA spatially explicit, process-based hydro-ecological model, BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0, was developed to improve the representation of ecophysiological, hydro-ecological and biogeochemical processes of boreal ecosystems in a tightly coupled manner. Several processes unique to boreal ecosystems were implemented including the sub-surface lateral water fluxes, stratification of vegetation into distinct layers for explicit ecophysiological representation, inclusion of novel spatial upscaling strategies and biogeochemical processes. To account for preferential water fluxes common in humid boreal ecosystems, a novel scheme was introduced based on laboratory analyses. Leaf-scale ecophysiological processes were upscaled to canopy-scale by explicitly considering leaf physiological conditions as affected by light and water stress. The modified model was tested with 2 years of continuous measurements taken at the Eastern Old Black Spruce Site of the Fluxnet-Canada Research Network located in a humid boreal watershed in eastern Canada. Comparison of the simulated and measured ET, water-table depth (WTD), volumetric soil water content (VSWC) and gross primary productivity (GPP) revealed that BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0 simulates hydro-ecological processes with reasonable accuracy. The model was able to explain 83% of the ET, 92% of the GPP variability and 72% of the WTD dynamics. The model suggests that in humid ecosystems such as eastern North American boreal watersheds, topographically driven sub-surface baseflow is the main mechanism of soil water partitioning which significantly affects the local-scale hydrological conditions.

On acquiring decision making skills for endovascular interventions.

PubMed

Lanzer, Peter; Prechelt, Lutz

2008-11-01

To improve interventional training we propose a staged rational approach for decision making and skill acquisition. Education and training for endovascular interventions should start to develop the learners' decision-making skills by learning from explicit representations of master interventionist's tacit decision-making knowledge through implementation of the notions of generic interventional modules, interventional strategic and tactical designs. We hope that these suggestions will encourage action, stimulate dialogue and advance the precision of our learning, procedures, practice and patient care.

Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas; Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan R.; Sayler, Kristi L.

2015-01-01

Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

Place mapping and the role of spatial scale in understanding landowner views of fire and fuels management

Treesearch

Michael A. Cacciapaglia; Laurie Yung; Michael E. Patterson

2011-01-01

Place mapping is emerging as a way to understand the spatial components of people's relationships with particular locations and how these relate to support for management proposals. But despite the spatial focus of place mapping, scale is rarely explicitly examined in such exercises. This is particularly problematic since scalar definitions and configurations have...

Spatial decision support system for tobacco enterprise based on spatial data mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mei, Xin; Liu, Junyi; Zhang, Xuexia; Cui, Weihong

2007-11-01

Tobacco enterprise is a special enterprise, which has strong correlation to regional geography. But in the past research and application, the combination between tobacco and GIS is limited to use digital maps to assist cigarette distribution. How to comprehensively import 3S technique and spatial data mining (SDM) to construct spatial decision support system (SDSS) of tobacco enterprise is the main research aspect in this paper. The paper concretely analyzes the GIS requirements in tobacco enterprise for planning location of production, monitoring production management and product sale at the beginning. Then holistic solution is presented and frame design for tobacco enterprise spatial decision based on SDM is given. This paper describes how to use spatial analysis and data mining to realize the spatial decision processing such as monitoring tobacco planted acreage, analyzing and planning the cigarette sale network and so on.

IN-STREAM AND WATERSHED PREDICTORS OF GENETIC DIVERSITY, EFFECTIVE POPULATION SIZE AND IMMIGRATION ACROSS RIVER-STREAM NETWORKS

EPA Science Inventory

The influence of spatial processes on population dynamics within river-stream networks is poorly understood. Utilizing spatially explicit analyses of temporal genetic variance, we examined whether persistence of Central Stonerollers (Campostoma anomalum) reflects differences in h...

Spatially explicit rangeland erosion monitoring using high-resolution digital aerial imagery

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Nearly all of the ecosystem services supported by rangelands, including production of livestock forage, carbon sequestration, and provisioning of clean water, are negatively impacted by soil erosion. Accordingly, monitoring the severity, spatial extent, and rate of soil erosion is essential for long...

A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT HIERARCHICAL APPROACH TO MODELING COMPLEX ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS. (R827676)

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological systems are generally considered among the most complex because they are characterized by a large number of diverse components, nonlinear interactions, scale multiplicity, and spatial heterogeneity. Hierarchy theory, as well as empirical evidence, suggests that comp...

GIS-BASED HYDROLOGIC MODELING: THE AUTOMATED GEOSPATIAL WATERSHED ASSESSMENT TOOL

EPA Science Inventory

Planning and assessment in land and water resource management are evolving from simple, local scale problems toward complex, spatially explicit regional ones. Such problems have to be
addressed with distributed models that can compute runoff and erosion at different spatial a...

Spatially explicit assessment of estuarine fish after Deepwater Horizon oil spill: trade-off in complexity and parsimony

EPA Science Inventory

Evaluating long- term contaminant effects on wildlife populations depends on spatial information about habitat quality, heterogeneity in contaminant exposure, and sensitivities and distributions of species integrated into a systems modeling approach. Rarely is this information re...

Modeling the Spatial Dynamics of Regional Land Use: The CLUE-S Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verburg, Peter H.; Soepboer, Welmoed; Veldkamp, A.; Limpiada, Ramil; Espaldon, Victoria; Mastura, Sharifah S. A.

2002-09-01

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.

Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model.

PubMed

Verburg, Peter H; Soepboer, Welmoed; Veldkamp, A; Limpiada, Ramil; Espaldon, Victoria; Mastura, Sharifah S A

2002-09-01

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.

[Shared decision-making in medical practice--patient-centred communication skills].

PubMed

van Staveren, Remke

2011-01-01

Most patients (70%) want to participate actively in important healthcare decisions, the rest (30%) prefer the doctor to make the decision for them. Shared decision-making provides more patient satisfaction, a better quality of life and contributes to a better doctor-patient relationship. Patients making their own decision generally make a well considered and medically sensible choice. In shared decision-making the doctor asks many open questions, gives and requests much information, asks if the patient wishes to participate in the decision-making and explicitly takes into account patient circumstances and preferences. Shared decision-making should remain an individual choice and should not become a new dogma.

Court-Driven Reform and Equal Educational Opportunity: Centralization, Decentralization, and the Shifting Judicial Role

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Superfine, Benjamin Michael

2010-01-01

Judicial decisions focusing on equal educational opportunity involve significant issues of educational governance and often involve explicit questions about the extent to which authority to make educational decisions should be centralized or decentralized across various institutions and entities. This review aims at clarifying scholars'…

Reflections on New Configurations in Campus Governance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wise, W. Max

Changes in college government generally incorporate the following features: (1) they provide structural means for the expression of opinion, (often the right to vote) to representatives of groups hitherto underrepresented or unrepresented on decision-making bodies; (2) they are intended to make the decision-making process more explicit, and more…

Minimizing risks from spilled oil to ecosystem services using influence diagrams: The Deepwater Horizon spill response

EPA Science Inventory

Making inferences on risks to ecosystem services (ES) from ecological crises may be improved using decision science tools. Influence diagrams (IDs) are probabilistic networks that explicitly represent the decisions related to a problem and evidence of their influence on desired o...

Electrophysiological correlates of facial decision: insights from upright and upside-down Mooney-face perception.

PubMed

George, Nathalie; Jemel, Boutheina; Fiori, Nicole; Chaby, Laurence; Renault, Bernard

2005-08-01

We investigated the ERP correlates of the subjective perception of upright and upside-down ambiguous pictures as faces using two-tone Mooney stimuli in an explicit facial decision task (deciding whether a face is perceived or not in the display). The difficulty in perceiving upside-down Mooneys as faces was reflected by both lower rates of "Face" responses and delayed "Face" reaction times for upside-down relative to upright stimuli. The N170 was larger for the stimuli reported as "faces". It was also larger for the upright than the upside-down stimuli only when they were reported as faces. Furthermore, facial decision as well as stimulus orientation effects spread from 140-190 ms to 390-440 ms. The behavioural delay in 'Face' responses to upside-down stimuli was reflected in ERPs by later effect of facial decision for upside-down relative to upright Mooneys over occipito-temporal electrodes. Moreover, an orientation effect was observed only for the stimuli reported as faces; it yielded a marked hemispheric asymmetry, lasting from 140-190 ms to 390-440 ms post-stimulus onset in the left hemisphere and from 340-390 to 390-440 ms only in the right hemisphere. Taken together, the results supported a preferential involvement of the right hemisphere in the detection of faces, whatever their orientation. By contrast, the early orientation effect in the left hemisphere suggested that upside-down Mooney stimuli were processed as non face objects until facial decision was reached in this hemisphere. The present data show that face perception involves not only spatially but also temporally distributed activities in occipito-temporal regions.

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions Based on a Bank of Norm-Inequality-Constrained Epoch-State Filters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. R.; Markley, F. L.; Alfriend, K. T.; Wright, C.; Arcido, J.

2011-01-01

Sequential probability ratio tests explicitly allow decision makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models 1he null hypothesis 1ha1 the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming highly-elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

Strategic processing in long-term repetition priming in the lexical decision task.

PubMed

Kessler, Yoav; Moscovitch, Morris

2013-04-01

In a lexical decision task, faster reaction times (RTs) for old than new items is taken as evidence for an implicit memory involvement in this task. In contrast, the present study shows the involvement of both implicit and explicit memory in repetition priming. We propose a dual route model, in which lexical decisions can be made using one of two parallel processing routes: a lexical route, in which the lexical properties of the stimulus are used to determine whether it is a word or not, and a strategic route that builds on the inherent correlation between "wordness" and "oldness" in the experiment. Eliminating the strategic route by removing this correlation diminishes the priming effect at the slow end of the RT distribution, but not at the fast end. This dissociation is interpreted as evidence for the involvement of both implicit and explicit memory in repetition priming.

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Spacecraft Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell; Markley, F. Landis

2013-01-01

A document discusses sequential probability ratio tests that explicitly allow decision-makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models the null hypotheses that the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming, highly elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

Spatial effects, sampling errors, and task specialization in the honey bee.

PubMed

Johnson, B R

2010-05-01

Task allocation patterns should depend on the spatial distribution of work within the nest, variation in task demand, and the movement patterns of workers, however, relatively little research has focused on these topics. This study uses a spatially explicit agent based model to determine whether such factors alone can generate biases in task performance at the individual level in the honey bees, Apis mellifera. Specialization (bias in task performance) is shown to result from strong sampling error due to localized task demand, relatively slow moving workers relative to nest size, and strong spatial variation in task demand. To date, specialization has been primarily interpreted with the response threshold concept, which is focused on intrinsic (typically genotypic) differences between workers. Response threshold variation and sampling error due to spatial effects are not mutually exclusive, however, and this study suggests that both contribute to patterns of task bias at the individual level. While spatial effects are strong enough to explain some documented cases of specialization; they are relatively short term and not explanatory for long term cases of specialization. In general, this study suggests that the spatial layout of tasks and fluctuations in their demand must be explicitly controlled for in studies focused on identifying genotypic specialists.

Harnessing Big Data to Represent 30-meter Spatial Heterogeneity in Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaney, N.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Van Huijgevoort, M.; Milly, C.; Sulman, B. N.

2016-12-01

Terrestrial land surface processes play a critical role in the Earth system; they have a profound impact on the global climate, food and energy production, freshwater resources, and biodiversity. One of the most fascinating yet challenging aspects of characterizing terrestrial ecosystems is their field-scale (˜30 m) spatial heterogeneity. It has been observed repeatedly that the water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles at multiple temporal and spatial scales have deep ties to an ecosystem's spatial structure. Current Earth system models largely disregard this important relationship leading to an inadequate representation of ecosystem dynamics. In this presentation, we will show how existing global environmental datasets can be harnessed to explicitly represent field-scale spatial heterogeneity in Earth system models. For each macroscale grid cell, these environmental data are clustered according to their field-scale soil and topographic attributes to define unique sub-grid tiles. The state-of-the-art Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) land model is then used to simulate these tiles and their spatial interactions via the exchange of water, energy, and nutrients along explicit topographic gradients. Using historical simulations over the contiguous United States, we will show how a robust representation of field-scale spatial heterogeneity impacts modeled ecosystem dynamics including the water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles as well as vegetation composition and distribution.

Application GIS on university planning: building a spatial database aided spatial decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Lei; Wu, Xiaofang; Wang, Kun; Nong, Yu

2007-06-01

With the development of university and its size enlarging, kinds of resource need to effective management urgently. Spacial database is the right tool to assist administrator's spatial decision. And it's ready for digital campus with integrating existing OMS. It's researched about the campus planning in detail firstly. Following instanced by south china agriculture university it is practiced that how to build the geographic database of the campus building and house for university administrator's spatial decision.

Decision analysis in clinical cardiology: When is coronary angiography required in aortic stenosis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Georgeson, S.; Meyer, K.B.; Pauker, S.G.

1990-03-15

Decision analysis offers a reproducible, explicit approach to complex clinical decisions. It consists of developing a model, typically a decision tree, that separates choices from chances and that specifies and assigns relative values to outcomes. Sensitivity analysis allows exploration of alternative assumptions. Cost-effectiveness analysis shows the relation between dollars spent and improved health outcomes achieved. In a tutorial format, this approach is applied to the decision whether to perform coronary angiography in a patient who requires aortic valve replacement for critical aortic stenosis.

Towards a hierarchical optimization framework for spatially targeting incentive policies to promote green infrastructure amidst multiple objectives and uncertainty

EPA Science Inventory

We introduce a hierarchical optimization framework for spatially targeting green infrastructure (GI) incentive policies in order to meet objectives related to cost and environmental effectiveness. The framework explicitly simulates the interaction between multiple levels of polic...

Mapping the Climate of Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra.

Treesearch

CHRISTOPHER DALY; E. H. HELMER; MAYA QUINONES

2003-01-01

Spatially explicit climate data contribute to watershed resource management, mapping vegetation type with satellite imagery, mapping present and hypothetical future ecological zones, and predicting species distributions. The regression based Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) uses spatial data sets, a knowledge base and expert...

Multiple sclerosis decreases explicit counterfactual processing and risk taking in decision making.

PubMed

Simioni, Samanta; Schluep, Myriam; Bault, Nadège; Coricelli, Giorgio; Kleeberg, Joerg; Du Pasquier, Renaud A; Gschwind, Markus; Vuilleumier, Patrik; Annoni, Jean-Marie

2012-01-01

Deficits in decision making (DM) are commonly associated with prefrontal cortical damage, but may occur with multiple sclerosis (MS). There are no data concerning the impact of MS on tasks evaluating DM under explicit risk, where different emotional and cognitive components can be distinguished. We assessed 72 relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients with mild to moderate disease and 38 healthy controls in two DM tasks involving risk with explicit rules: (1) The Wheel of Fortune (WOF), which probes the anticipated affects of decisions outcomes on future choices; and (2) The Cambridge Gamble Task (CGT) which measures risk taking. Participants also underwent a neuropsychological and emotional assessment, and skin conductance responses (SCRs) were recorded. In the WOF, RRMS patients showed deficits in integrating positive counterfactual information (p<0.005) and greater risk aversion (p<0.001). They reported less negative affect than controls (disappointment: p = 0.007; regret: p = 0.01), although their implicit emotional reactions as measured by post-choice SCRs did not differ. In the CGT, RRMS patients differed from controls in quality of DM (p = 0.01) and deliberation time (p = 0.0002), the latter difference being correlated with attention scores. Such changes did not result in overall decreases in performance (total gains). The quality of DM under risk was modified by MS in both tasks. The reduction in the expression of disappointment coexisted with an increased risk aversion in the WOF and alexithymia features. These concomitant emotional alterations may have implications for better understanding the components of explicit DM and for the clinical support of MS patients.

Cognitive and behavioural dispositions in offspring at high risk for alcoholism.

PubMed

Kumar, Rajesh; Kumar, Keshav Janakiprasad; Benegal, Vivek

2018-06-01

Offspring with family history of alcoholism are considered to be at high risk for alcoholism. The present study sought to expand our understanding of cognitive and behavioural dispositions associated with executive control and self-regulation in alcohol naïve offspring with and without family history of alcoholism. Sample comprised of alcohol naive offspring in two groups: (i) at high risk (n = 34) and (ii) at low risk for alcoholism (n = 34). Both groups were matched on age (+/-1 year), education (+/-1 year) and gender. Measures used were: Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview, Family Interview for Genetic Studies, Socio-demographic Data Sheet, Annett's Handedness Questionnaire, Barratt's Impulsiveness Scale-version 11, Digit Span Test, Spatial Span Test, Tower of London, Wisconsin Card Sorting Test, Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and Game of Dice Task (GDT). Results showed that alcohol naive offspring at high risk for alcoholism reported significantly high impulsivity and demonstrated significant differences on executive functions and decision making tasks. Correlation analysis revealed that high impulsivity was significantly associated with poor performance on explicit decision making task (GDT) and executive function task (WCST). There was no significant correlation between two decision making tasks (IGT and GDT) in both groups and performance on IGT was not significantly associated with impulsivity and executive functions. The present study indicates cognitive and behavioural dispositions in alcohol naive offspring at high risk for alcoholism and support the sub-optimal balance between reflective and impulsive system responsible for addiction. Furthermore, present study supports separability between two different types of decision making tasks. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Semantic Ambiguity and the Failure of Inhibition Hypothesis as an Explanation for Reading Errors in Deep Dyslexia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Colangelo, A.; Buchanan, L.

2005-01-01

We report evidence for dissociation between explicit and implicit access to word representations in a deep dyslexic patient (JO). JO read aloud a series of ambiguous (e.g., bank) and unambiguous (e.g., food) words and performed a lexical decision task using these same items. When required to explicitly access the items (i.e., naming), JO showed…

A biased activation theory of the cognitive and attentional modulation of emotion.

PubMed

Rolls, Edmund T

2013-01-01

Cognition can influence emotion by biasing neural activity in the first cortical region in which the reward value and subjective pleasantness of stimuli is made explicit in the representation, the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC). The same effect occurs in a second cortical tier for emotion, the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Similar effects are found for selective attention, to for example the pleasantness vs. the intensity of stimuli, which modulates representations of reward value and affect in the orbitofrontal and anterior cingulate cortices. The mechanisms for the effects of cognition and attention on emotion are top-down biased competition and top-down biased activation. Affective and mood states can in turn influence memory and perception, by backprojected biasing influences. Emotion-related decision systems operate to choose between gene-specified rewards such as taste, touch, and beauty. Reasoning processes capable of planning ahead with multiple steps held in working memory in the explicit system can allow the gene-specified rewards not to be selected, or to be deferred. The stochastic, noisy, dynamics of decision-making systems in the brain may influence whether decisions are made by the selfish-gene-specified reward emotion system, or by the cognitive reasoning system that explicitly calculates reward values that are in the interests of the individual, the phenotype.

Multi-criteria decision assessments using Subjective Logic: Methodology and the case of urban water strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moglia, Magnus; Sharma, Ashok K.; Maheepala, Shiroma

2012-07-01

SummaryPlanning of regional and urban water resources, and in particular with Integrated Urban Water Management approaches, often considers inter-relationships between human uses of water, the health of the natural environment as well as the cost of various management strategies. Decision makers hence typically need to consider a combination of social, environmental and economic goals. The types of strategies employed can include water efficiency measures, water sensitive urban design, stormwater management, or catchment management. Therefore, decision makers need to choose between different scenarios and to evaluate them against a number of criteria. This type of problem has a discipline devoted to it, i.e. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, which has often been applied in water management contexts. This paper describes the application of Subjective Logic in a basic Bayesian Network to a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis problem. By doing this, it outlines a novel methodology that explicitly incorporates uncertainty and information reliability. The application of the methodology to a known case study context allows for exploration. By making uncertainty and reliability of assessments explicit, it allows for assessing risks of various options, and this may help in alleviating cognitive biases and move towards a well formulated risk management policy.

The interaction of patient race, provider bias, and clinical ambiguity on pain management decisions

PubMed Central

Hirsh, Adam T.; Hollingshead, Nicole A.; Ashburn-Nardo, Leslie; Kroenke, Kurt

2015-01-01

Although racial disparities in pain care are widely reported, much remains to be known about the role of provider and contextual factors. We used computer-simulated patients to examine the influence of patient race, provider racial bias, and clinical ambiguity on pain decisions. One hundred twenty nine medical residents/fellows made assessment (pain intensity) and treatment (opioid and non-opioid analgesics) decisions for 12 virtual patients with acute pain. Race (Black/White) and clinical ambiguity (high/low) were manipulated across vignettes. Participants completed the Implicit Association Test and feeling thermometers, which assess implicit and explicit racial biases, respectively. Individual- and group-level analyses indicated that race and ambiguity had an interactive effect on providers’ decisions, such that decisions varied as a function of ambiguity for White but not Black patients. Individual differences across providers were observed for the effect of race and ambiguity on decisions; however providers’ implicit and explicit biases did not account for this variability. These data highlight the complexity of racial disparities and suggest that differences in care between White and Black patients are, in part, attributable to the nature (i.e., ambiguity) of the clinical scenario. The current study suggests that interventions to reduce disparities should differentially target patient, provider, and contextual factors. PMID:25828370

Trade-offs across space, time, and ecosystem services

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodriguez, J.P.; Beard, T.D.; Bennett, E.M.; Cumming, Graeme S.; Cork, S.J.; Agard, J.; Dobson, A.P.; Peterson, G.D.

2006-01-01

Ecosystem service (ES) trade-offs arise from management choices made by humans, which can change the type, magnitude, and relative mix of services provided by ecosystems. Trade-offs occur when the provision of one ES is reduced as a consequence of increased use of another ES. In some cases, a trade-off may be an explicit choice; but in others, trade-offs arise without premeditation or even awareness that they are taking place. Trade-offs in ES can be classified along three axes: spatial scale, temporal scale, and reversibility. Spatial scale refers to whether the effects of the trade-off are felt locally or at a distant location. Temporal scale refers to whether the effects take place relatively rapidly or slowly. Reversibility expresses the likelihood that the perturbed ES may return to its original state if the perturbation ceases. Across all four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios and selected case study examples, trade-off decisions show a preference for provisioning, regulating, or cultural services (in that order). Supporting services are more likely to be "taken for granted." Cultural ES are almost entirely unquantified in scenario modeling; therefore, the calculated model results do not fully capture losses of these services that occur in the scenarios. The quantitative scenario models primarily capture the services that are perceived by society as more important - provisioning and regulating ecosystem services - and thus do not fully capture trade-offs of cultural and supporting services. Successful management policies will be those that incorporate lessons learned from prior decisions into future management actions. Managers should complement their actions with monitoring programs that, in addition to monitoring the short-term provisions of services, also monitor the long-term evolution of slowly changing variables. Policies can then be developed to take into account ES trade-offs at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Successful strategies will recognize the inherent complexities of ecosystem management and will work to develop policies that minimize the effects of ES trade-offs. Copyright ?? 2006 by the author(s).

[Human body meridian spatial decision support system for clinical treatment and teaching of acupuncture and moxibustion].

PubMed

Wu, Dehua

2016-01-01

The spatial position and distribution of human body meridian are expressed limitedly in the decision support system (DSS) of acupuncture and moxibustion at present, which leads to the failure to give the effective quantitative analysis on the spatial range and the difficulty for the decision-maker to provide a realistic spatial decision environment. Focusing on the limit spatial expression in DSS of acupuncture and moxibustion, it was proposed that on the basis of the geographic information system, in association of DSS technology, the design idea was developed on the human body meridian spatial DSS. With the 4-layer service-oriented architecture adopted, the data center integrated development platform was taken as the system development environment. The hierarchical organization was done for the spatial data of human body meridian via the directory tree. The structured query language (SQL) server was used to achieve the unified management of spatial data and attribute data. The technologies of architecture, configuration and plug-in development model were integrated to achieve the data inquiry, buffer analysis and program evaluation of the human body meridian spatial DSS. The research results show that the human body meridian spatial DSS could reflect realistically the spatial characteristics of the spatial position and distribution of human body meridian and met the constantly changeable demand of users. It has the powerful spatial analysis function and assists with the scientific decision in clinical treatment and teaching of acupuncture and moxibustion. It is the new attempt to the informatization research of human body meridian.

Five challenges for spatial epidemic models

PubMed Central

Riley, Steven; Eames, Ken; Isham, Valerie; Mollison, Denis; Trapman, Pieter

2015-01-01

Infectious disease incidence data are increasingly available at the level of the individual and include high-resolution spatial components. Therefore, we are now better able to challenge models that explicitly represent space. Here, we consider five topics within spatial disease dynamics: the construction of network models; characterising threshold behaviour; modelling long-distance interactions; the appropriate scale for interventions; and the representation of population heterogeneity. PMID:25843387

Effects of sample size, number of markers, and allelic richness on the detection of spatial genetic pattern

Treesearch

Erin L. Landguth; Bradley C. Fedy; Sara J. Oyler-McCance; Andrew L. Garey; Sarah L. Emel; Matthew Mumma; Helene H. Wagner; Marie-Josee Fortin; Samuel A. Cushman

2012-01-01

The influence of study design on the ability to detect the effects of landscape pattern on gene flow is one of the most pressing methodological gaps in landscape genetic research. To investigate the effect of study design on landscape genetics inference, we used a spatially-explicit, individual-based program to simulate gene flow in a spatially continuous population...

Development of input data layers for the FARSITE fire growth model for the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness Complex, USA

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Janice L. Garner; Kirsten M. Schmidt; Donald G. Long; James P. Menakis; Mark A. Finney

1998-01-01

Fuel and vegetation spatial data layers required by the spatially explicit fire growth model FARSITE were developed for all lands in and around the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness Area in Idaho and Montana. Satellite imagery and terrain modeling were used to create the three base vegetation spatial data layers of potential vegetation, cover type, and structural stage....

Hierarchical analysis of spatial pattern and processes of Douglas-fir forests. Ph.D. Thesis, 10 Sep. 1991 Abstract Only

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bradshaw, G. A.

1995-01-01

There has been an increased interest in the quantification of pattern in ecological systems over the past years. This interest is motivated by the desire to construct valid models which extend across many scales. Spatial methods must quantify pattern, discriminate types of pattern, and relate hierarchical phenomena across scales. Wavelet analysis is introduced as a method to identify spatial structure in ecological transect data. The main advantage of the wavelet transform over other methods is its ability to preserve and display hierarchical information while allowing for pattern decomposition. Two applications of wavelet analysis are illustrated, as a means to: (1) quantify known spatial patterns in Douglas-fir forests at several scales, and (2) construct spatially-explicit hypotheses regarding pattern generating mechanisms. Application of the wavelet variance, derived from the wavelet transform, is developed for forest ecosystem analysis to obtain additional insight into spatially-explicit data. Specifically, the resolution capabilities of the wavelet variance are compared to the semi-variogram and Fourier power spectra for the description of spatial data using a set of one-dimensional stationary and non-stationary processes. The wavelet cross-covariance function is derived from the wavelet transform and introduced as a alternative method for the analysis of multivariate spatial data of understory vegetation and canopy in Douglas-fir forests of the western Cascades of Oregon.

Quantifying spatial scaling patterns and their local and regional correlates in headwater streams: Implications for resilience

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gothe, Emma; Sandin, Leonard; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.

2014-01-01

The distribution of functional traits within and across spatiotemporal scales has been used to quantify and infer the relative resilience across ecosystems. We use explicit spatial modeling to evaluate within- and cross-scale redundancy in headwater streams, an ecosystem type with a hierarchical and dendritic network structure. We assessed the cross-scale distribution of functional feeding groups of benthic invertebrates in Swedish headwater streams during two seasons. We evaluated functional metrics, i.e., Shannon diversity, richness, and evenness, and the degree of redundancy within and across modeled spatial scales for individual feeding groups. We also estimated the correlates of environmental versus spatial factors of both functional composition and the taxonomic composition of functional groups for each spatial scale identified. Measures of functional diversity and within-scale redundancy of functions were similar during both seasons, but both within- and cross-scale redundancy were low. This apparent low redundancy was partly attributable to a few dominant taxa explaining the spatial models. However, rare taxa with stochastic spatial distributions might provide additional information and should therefore be considered explicitly for complementing future resilience assessments. Otherwise, resilience may be underestimated. Finally, both environmental and spatial factors correlated with the scale-specific functional and taxonomic composition. This finding suggests that resilience in stream networks emerges as a function of not only local conditions but also regional factors such as habitat connectivity and invertebrate dispersal.

Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions.

PubMed

Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A; Meyer, Markus A

2016-01-01

Meeting the world's growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape. This indicates that SRCs negligibly affect trade-offs between individual ESS. Coupling spatially explicit economic simulation models with environmental and ESS assessment models can contribute to a comprehensive impact assessment of bioenergy feedstocks that have not yet been planted.

Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions

PubMed Central

Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A.; Meyer, Markus A.

2016-01-01

Meeting the world’s growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape. This indicates that SRCs negligibly affect trade-offs between individual ESS. Coupling spatially explicit economic simulation models with environmental and ESS assessment models can contribute to a comprehensive impact assessment of bioenergy feedstocks that have not yet been planted. PMID:27082742

Sleep Enhances Knowledge of Routes and Regions in Spatial Environments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Noack, Hannes; Schick, Wiebke; Mallot, Hanspeter; Born, Jan

2017-01-01

Sleep is thought to preferentially consolidate hippocampus-dependent memory, and as such, spatial navigation. Here, we investigated the effects of sleep on route knowledge and explicit and implicit semantic regions in a virtual environment. Sleep, compared with wakefulness, improved route knowledge and also enhanced awareness of the semantic…

Factors influencing export of dissolved inorganic nitrogen by major rivers: A new seasonal, spatially explicit, global model - 2012

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/Methods Substantial effort has focused on understanding spatial variation in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export to the coastal zone and specific basins have been studied in some depth. Much less is known, however, about seasonal patterns and zone and ...

Factors influencing export of dissolved inorganic nitrogen by major rivers: a new seasonal, spatially explicit, global model

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/Methods Substantial effort has focused on understanding spatial variation in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export to the coastal zone and specific basins have been studied in some depth. Much less is known, however, about seasonal patterns and controls ...

SPATIAL PATTERN OF FUTURE VULNERABILITY OF STREAM EUTROPHICATION IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION OF THE UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

Spatially explicit identification of changes in ecological conditions over large areas is key to targeting and prioritizing areas for environmental protection and restoration by managers at watershed, basin, and regional scales. A critical limitation to this point has been the d...

Spatial vegetation patterns and neighborhood competition among woody plants in an East African savanna

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The majority of research on savanna vegetation dynamics has focused on the coexistence of woody and herbaceous vegetation; interactions among woody plants in savannas are relatively poorly understood. We present data from a 10-year longitudinal study of spatially explicit growth patterns of woody ve...

Spatially Explicit West Nile Virus Risk Modeling in Santa Clara County, CA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A geographic information systems model designed to identify regions of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission risk was tested and calibrated with data collected in Santa Clara County, California. American Crows that died from WNV infection in 2005, provided spatial and temporal ground truth. When the mo...

Spatially explicit West Nile virus risk modeling in Santa Clara County, California

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A previously created Geographic Information Systems model designed to identify regions of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission risk is tested and calibrated in Santa Clara County, California. American Crows that died from WNV infection in 2005 provide the spatial and temporal ground truth. Model param...

Factors influencing export of dissolved inorganic nitrogen by major rivers: A new, seasonal, spatially explicit, global model

EPA Science Inventory

Substantial effort has focused on understanding spatial variation in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export to the coastal zone and specific basins have been studied in depth. Much less is known, however, about seasonal patterns and controls of coastal DIN delivery across larg...

Nitrogen, ecosystem services and environmental justice: How can a spatial valuation approach inform responsible nutrient management?

EPA Science Inventory

Spatially-explicit ecosystem service valuation (ESV) allows for the identification of the location and magnitude of services provided by natural ecosystems along with an economic measure of their value based upon benefit transfer. While this provides an important function in term...

Fire in the Brazilian Amazon: A Spatially Explicit Model for Policy Impact Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arima, Eugenio Y.; Simmons, Cynthia S.; Walker, Robert T.; Cochrane, Mark A.

2007-01-01

This article implements a spatially explicit model to estimate the probability of forest and agricultural fires in the Brazilian Amazon. We innovate by using variables that reflect farmgate prices of beef and soy, and also provide a conceptual model of managed and unmanaged fires in order to simulate the impact of road paving, cattle exports, and conservation area designation on the occurrence of fire. Our analysis shows that fire is positively correlated with the price of beef and soy, and that the creation of new conservation units may offset the negative environmental impacts caused by the increasing number of fire events associated with early stages of frontier development.

Distributive Decisions in Education: Goals, Trade-Offs, and Feasibility Constraints

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shores, Kenneth; Loeb, Susanna

2016-01-01

Educators, policymakers, and citizens face questions of how to allocate scarce resources in the pursuit of competing goals for children and youth. Our goal in this article is to provide decision-makers with a framework for considering allocative problems in education, explicitly highlighting the implications of relevant feasibility constraints. We…

29 CFR 18.103 - Rulings on evidence.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... is more probably true than not true that the error did not materially contribute to the decision or... if explicitly not relied upon by the judge in support of the decision or order. (b) Record of offer... making of an offer in question and answer form. (c) Plain error. Nothing in this rule precludes taking...

Performance Assessment in Serious Games: Compensating for the Effects of Randomness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Westera, Wim

2016-01-01

This paper is about performance assessment in serious games. We conceive serious gaming as a process of player-lead decision taking. Starting from combinatorics and item-response theory we provide an analytical model that makes explicit to what extent observed player performances (decisions) are blurred by chance processes (guessing behaviors). We…

Integrating Public Input into Healthcare Priority-Setting Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mitton, Craig; Smith, Neale; Peacock, Stuart; Evoy, Brian; Abelson, Julia

2011-01-01

Decision makers are pressed to involve the public in priority setting. However, public input is only one form of evidence. So, how can information from the public be combined with other knowledge? The authors qualitatively analysed articles that explicitly address this question. We identified the other forms of information that tend to be used in…

The role of colour in implicit and explicit memory performance.

PubMed

Vernon, David; Lloyd-Jones, Toby J

2003-07-01

We present two experiments that examine the effects of colour transformation between study and test (from black and white to colour and vice versa, of from incorrectly coloured to correctly coloured and vice versa) on implicit and explicit measures of memory for diagnostically coloured natural objects (e.g., yellow banana). For naming and coloured-object decision (i.e., deciding whether an object is correctly coloured), there were shorter response times to correctly coloured-objects than to black-and-white and incorrectly coloured-objects. Repetition priming was equivalent for the different stimulus types. Colour transformation did not influence priming of picture naming, but for coloured-object decision priming was evident only for objects remaining the same from study to test. This was the case for both naming and coloured-object decision as study tasks. When participants were asked to consciously recognize objects that they had named or made coloured-object decisions to previously, whilst ignoring their colour, colour transformation reduced recognition efficiency. We discuss these results in terms of the flexibility of object representations that mediate priming and recognition.

Should a colon cancer screening decision aid include the option of no testing? A comparative trial of two decision aids

PubMed Central

Griffith, Jennifer M; Fichter, Marlie; Fowler, Floyd J; Lewis, Carmen; Pignone, Michael P

2008-01-01

Background An important question in the development of decision aids about colon cancer (CRC) screening is whether to include an explicit discussion of the option of not being screened. We examined the effect of including or not including an explicit discussion of the option of deciding not to be screened in a CRC screening decision aid on subjective measures of decision aid content; interest in screening; and knowledge. Methods Adults ages 50–85 were assigned to view one of two versions of the decision aid. The two versions differed only in the inclusion of video segments of two men, one of whom decided against being screened. Participants completed questionnaires before and after viewing the decision aid to compare subjective measures of content, screening interest and intent, and knowledge between groups. Likert response categories (5-point) were used for subjective measures of content (eg. clarity, balance in favor/against screening, and overall rating), and screening interest. Knowledge was measured with a three item index and individual questions. Higher scores indicated favorable responses for subjective measures, greater interest, and better knowledge. For the subjective balance, lower numbers were associated with the impression of the decision aid favoring CRC screening. Results 57 viewed the "with" version which included the two segments and 49 viewed the "without" version. After viewing, participants found the "without" version to have better subjective clarity about benefits of screening ("with" 3.4, "without" 4.1, p < 0.01), and to have greater clarity about downsides of screening ("with" 3.2, "without" 3.6, p = 0.03). The "with" version was considered to be less strongly balanced in favor of screening. ("with" 1.8, "without" 1.6, p = 0.05); but the "without" version received a better overall rating ("with" 3.5, "without" 3.8, p = 0.03). Groups did not differ in screening interest after viewing a decision aid or knowledge. Conclusion A decision aid with the explicit discussion of the option of deciding not to be screened appears to increase the impression that the program was not as strongly in favor of screening, but decreases the impression of clarity and resulted in a lower overall rating. We did not observe clinically important or statistically significant differences in interest in screening or knowledge. PMID:18321377

Spatially explicit modelling of cholera epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finger, F.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Knox, A. C.; Gatto, M.; Rinaldo, A.

2013-12-01

Epidemiological models can provide crucial understanding about the dynamics of infectious diseases. Possible applications range from real-time forecasting and allocation of health care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. We apply a spatially explicit model to the cholera epidemic that struck Haiti in October 2010 and is still ongoing. The dynamics of susceptibles as well as symptomatic and asymptomatic infectives are modelled at the scale of local human communities. Dissemination of Vibrio cholerae through hydrological transport and human mobility along the road network is explicitly taken into account, as well as the effect of rainfall as a driver of increasing disease incidence. The model is calibrated using a dataset of reported cholera cases. We further model the long term impact of several types of interventions on the disease dynamics by varying parameters appropriately. Key epidemiological mechanisms and parameters which affect the efficiency of treatments such as antibiotics are identified. Our results lead to conclusions about the influence of different intervention strategies on the overall epidemiological dynamics.

Generalized reproduction numbers and the prediction of patterns in waterborne disease

PubMed Central

Gatto, Marino; Mari, Lorenzo; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Casagrandi, Renato; Righetto, Lorenzo; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

2012-01-01

Understanding, predicting, and controlling outbreaks of waterborne diseases are crucial goals of public health policies, but pose challenging problems because infection patterns are influenced by spatial structure and temporal asynchrony. Although explicit spatial modeling is made possible by widespread data mapping of hydrology, transportation infrastructure, population distribution, and sanitation, the precise condition under which a waterborne disease epidemic can start in a spatially explicit setting is still lacking. Here we show that the requirement that all the local reproduction numbers be larger than unity is neither necessary nor sufficient for outbreaks to occur when local settlements are connected by networks of primary and secondary infection mechanisms. To determine onset conditions, we derive general analytical expressions for a reproduction matrix , explicitly accounting for spatial distributions of human settlements and pathogen transmission via hydrological and human mobility networks. At disease onset, a generalized reproduction number (the dominant eigenvalue of ) must be larger than unity. We also show that geographical outbreak patterns in complex environments are linked to the dominant eigenvector and to spectral properties of . Tests against data and computations for the 2010 Haiti and 2000 KwaZulu-Natal cholera outbreaks, as well as against computations for metapopulation networks, demonstrate that eigenvectors of provide a synthetic and effective tool for predicting the disease course in space and time. Networked connectivity models, describing the interplay between hydrology, epidemiology, and social behavior sustaining human mobility, thus prove to be key tools for emergency management of waterborne infections. PMID:23150538

Spatially explicit modeling of annual and seasonal habitat for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Nevada and Northeastern California—An updated decision-support tool for management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Ricca, Mark A.; Gustafson, K. Benjamin; Sanchez-Chopitea, Erika; Mauch, Kimberly; Niell, Lara; Gardner, Scott; Espinosa, Shawn; Delehanty, David J.

2016-05-20

Successful adaptive management hinges largely upon integrating new and improved sources of information as they become available. As a timely example of this tenet, we updated a management decision support tool that was previously developed for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus, hereinafter referred to as “sage-grouse”) populations in Nevada and California. Specifically, recently developed spatially explicit habitat maps derived from empirical data played a key role in the conservation of this species facing listing under the Endangered Species Act. This report provides an updated process for mapping relative habitat suitability and management categories for sage-grouse in Nevada and northeastern California (Coates and others, 2014, 2016). These updates include: (1) adding radio and GPS telemetry locations from sage-grouse monitored at multiple sites during 2014 to the original location dataset beginning in 1998; (2) integrating output from high resolution maps (1–2 m2) of sagebrush and pinyon-juniper cover as covariates in resource selection models; (3) modifying the spatial extent of the analyses to match newly available vegetation layers; (4) explicit modeling of relative habitat suitability during three seasons (spring, summer, winter) that corresponded to critical life history periods for sage-grouse (breeding, brood-rearing, over-wintering); (5) accounting for differences in habitat availability between more mesic sagebrush steppe communities in the northern part of the study area and drier Great Basin sagebrush in more southerly regions by categorizing continuous region-wide surfaces of habitat suitability index (HSI) with independent locations falling within two hydrological zones; (6) integrating the three seasonal maps into a composite map of annual relative habitat suitability; (7) deriving updated land management categories based on previously determined cut-points for intersections of habitat suitability and an updated index of sage-grouse abundance and space-use (AUI); and (8) masking urban footprints and major roadways out of the final map products.Seasonal habitat maps were generated based on model-averaged resource selection functions (RSF) derived for 10 project areas (813 sage-grouse; 14,085 locations) during the spring season, 10 during the summer season (591 sage-grouse, 11,743 locations), and 7 during the winter season (288 sage-grouse, 4,862 locations). RSF surfaces were transformed to HSIs and averaged in a GIS framework for every pixel for each season. Validation analyses of categorized HSI surfaces using a suite of independent datasets resulted in an agreement of 93–97 percent for habitat versus non-habitat on an annual basis. Spring and summer maps validated similarly well at 94–97 percent, while winter maps validated slightly less accurately at 87–93 percent.We then provide an updated example of how space use models can be integrated with habitat models to help inform conservation planning. We used updated lek count data to calculate a composite abundance and space use index (AUI) that comprised the combination of probabilistic breeding density with a non-linear probability of occurrence relative to distance to nearest lek. The AUI was then classified into two categories of use (high and low-to-no) and intersected with the HSI categories to create potential management prioritization scenarios based on information about sage-grouse occupancy coupled with habitat suitability. Compared to Coates and others (2014, 2016), the amount of area classified as habitat across the region increased by 6.5 percent (approximately 1,700,000 acres). For management categories, core increased by 7.2 percent (approximately 865,000 acres), priority increased by 9.6 percent (approximately 855,000 acres), and general increased by 9.2 percent (approximately 768,000 acres), while non-habitat decreased (that is, classified non-habitat occurring outside of areas of concentrated use) by 11.9 percent (approximately 2,500,000 acres). Importantly, seasonal and annual maps represent habitat for all age and sex classes of sage-grouse (that is, sample sizes of marked grouse were insufficient to only construct models for reproductive females). This revised sage-grouse habitat mapping product helps improve adaptive application of conservation planning tools based on intersections of spatially explicit habitat suitability, abundance, and space use indices.

[Application of spatially explicit landscape model in soil loss study in Huzhong area].

PubMed

Xu, Chonggang; Hu, Yuanman; Chang, Yu; Li, Xiuzhen; Bu, Renchang; He, Hongshi; Leng, Wenfang

2004-10-01

Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) has been widely used to estimate the average annual soil loss. In most of the previous work on soil loss evaluation on forestland, cover management factor was calculated from the static forest landscape. The advent of spatially explicit forest landscape model in the last decade, which explicitly simulates the forest succession dynamics under natural and anthropogenic disturbances (fire, wind, harvest and so on) on heterogeneous landscape, makes it possible to take into consideration the change of forest cover, and to dynamically simulate the soil loss in different year (e.g. 10 years and 20 years after current year). In this study, we linked a spatially explicit landscape model (LANDIS) with USLE to simulate the soil loss dynamics under two scenarios: fire and no harvest, fire and harvest. We also simulated the soil loss with no fire and no harvest as a control. The results showed that soil loss varied periodically with simulation year, and the amplitude of change was the lowest under the control scenario and the highest under the fire and no harvest scenario. The effect of harvest on soil loss could not be easily identified on the map; however, the cumulative effect of harvest on soil loss was larger than that of fire. Decreasing the harvest area and the percent of bare soil increased by harvest could significantly reduce soil loss, but had no significant effects on the dynamic of soil loss. Although harvest increased the annual soil loss, it tended to decrease the variability of soil loss between different simulation years.

A mixed integer program to model spatial wildfire behavior and suppression placement decisions

Treesearch

Erin J. Belval; Yu Wei; Michael Bevers

2015-01-01

Wildfire suppression combines multiple objectives and dynamic fire behavior to form a complex problem for decision makers. This paper presents a mixed integer program designed to explore integrating spatial fire behavior and suppression placement decisions into a mathematical programming framework. Fire behavior and suppression placement decisions are modeled using...

Stressless Schwarzschild

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deser, S.

2014-01-01

This self-contained pedagogical simple explicit 6-step derivation of the Schwarzschild solution, in "" formulation and conformal spatial gauge, (almost) avoids all affinity, curvature and index gymnastics.

An object-oriented watershed management tool (QnD-VFS) to engage stakeholders in targeted implementation of filter strips in an arid surface irrigation area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campo, M. A.; Perez-Ovilla, O.; Munoz-Carpena, R.; Kiker, G.; Ullman, J. L.

2012-12-01

Agricultural nonpoint source pollution cause the majority of the 1,224 different waterbodies failing to meet designated water use criteria in Washington. Although various best management practices (BMPs) are effective in mitigating agricultural pollutants, BMP placement is often haphazard and fails to address specific high-risk locations. Limited financial resources necessitate optimization of conservation efforts to meet water quality goals. Thus, there is a critical need to develop decision-making tools that target BMP implementation in order to maximize water quality protection. In addition to field parameters, it is essential to incorporate economic and social determinants in the decision-making process to encourage producer involvement. Decision-making tools that identify strategic pollution sources and integrate socio-economic factors will lead to more cost-effective water quality improvement, as well as encourage producer participation by incorporating real-world limitations. Therefore, this study examines vegetative filter strip use under different scenarios as a BMP to mitigate sediment and nutrients in the highly irrigated Yakima River Basin of central Washington. We developed QnD-VFS to integrate and visualize alternative, spatially-explicit, water management strategies and its economic impact. The QnDTM system was created as a decision education tool that incorporates management, economic, and socio- political issues in a user-friendly scenario framework. QnDTM, which incorporates elements of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and risk assessment, is written in object-oriented Java and can be deployed as a stand-alone program or a web-accessed tool. The model performs Euler numerical integration of various rate transformation and mass-balance transfer equations. The novelty of this object-oriented approach is that these differential equations are detailed in modular XML format for instantiation within the Java code. This design allows many levels of complexity to be quickly designed and rendered in QnDTM without time-consuming additions of new Java code. Thus, temporal and spatial scales used in the equations become part of model development and iteration. A salient aspect is that QnDTM links spatial components within GIS (ArcInfo Shape) files to the abiotic (e.g., climate), biotic and chemical/contaminant interactions. QnD-VFS integrates environmental, management and socio-economic/cultural factors identified through stakeholder input. Several scenarios have been studied. Thus one of the main results show that changing water management, improved irrigation, is equivalent to changing length of vegetative filter strips, with a low economic impacts for farmers. Concurrently, these interactive tools allow resource managers to identify economic and social determinants that may impede conservation efforts.

Implicit and explicit mechanisms of word learning in a narrative context: an event-related potential study.

PubMed

Batterink, Laura; Neville, Helen

2011-11-01

The vast majority of word meanings are learned simply by extracting them from context rather than by rote memorization or explicit instruction. Although this skill is remarkable, little is known about the brain mechanisms involved. In the present study, ERPs were recorded as participants read stories in which pseudowords were presented multiple times, embedded in consistent, meaningful contexts (referred to as meaning condition, M+) or inconsistent, meaningless contexts (M-). Word learning was then assessed implicitly using a lexical decision task and explicitly through recall and recognition tasks. Overall, during story reading, M- words elicited a larger N400 than M+ words, suggesting that participants were better able to semantically integrate M+ words than M- words throughout the story. In addition, M+ words whose meanings were subsequently correctly recognized and recalled elicited a more positive ERP in a later time window compared with M+ words whose meanings were incorrectly remembered, consistent with the idea that the late positive component is an index of encoding processes. In the lexical decision task, no behavioral or electrophysiological evidence for implicit priming was found for M+ words. In contrast, during the explicit recognition task, M+ words showed a robust N400 effect. The N400 effect was dependent upon recognition performance, such that only correctly recognized M+ words elicited an N400. This pattern of results provides evidence that the explicit representations of word meanings can develop rapidly, whereas implicit representations may require more extensive exposure or more time to emerge.

How the Brain Decides When to Work and When to Rest: Dissociation of Implicit-Reactive from Explicit-Predictive Computational Processes

PubMed Central

Meyniel, Florent; Safra, Lou; Pessiglione, Mathias

2014-01-01

A pervasive case of cost-benefit problem is how to allocate effort over time, i.e. deciding when to work and when to rest. An economic decision perspective would suggest that duration of effort is determined beforehand, depending on expected costs and benefits. However, the literature on exercise performance emphasizes that decisions are made on the fly, depending on physiological variables. Here, we propose and validate a general model of effort allocation that integrates these two views. In this model, a single variable, termed cost evidence, accumulates during effort and dissipates during rest, triggering effort cessation and resumption when reaching bounds. We assumed that such a basic mechanism could explain implicit adaptation, whereas the latent parameters (slopes and bounds) could be amenable to explicit anticipation. A series of behavioral experiments manipulating effort duration and difficulty was conducted in a total of 121 healthy humans to dissociate implicit-reactive from explicit-predictive computations. Results show 1) that effort and rest durations are adapted on the fly to variations in cost-evidence level, 2) that the cost-evidence fluctuations driving the behavior do not match explicit ratings of exhaustion, and 3) that actual difficulty impacts effort duration whereas expected difficulty impacts rest duration. Taken together, our findings suggest that cost evidence is implicitly monitored online, with an accumulation rate proportional to actual task difficulty. In contrast, cost-evidence bounds and dissipation rate might be adjusted in anticipation, depending on explicit task difficulty. PMID:24743711

Environmental risk of leptospirosis infections in the Netherlands: Spatial modelling of environmental risk factors of leptospirosis in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Rood, Ente J J; Goris, Marga G A; Pijnacker, Roan; Bakker, Mirjam I; Hartskeerl, Rudy A

2017-01-01

Leptospirosis is a globally emerging zoonotic disease, associated with various climatic, biotic and abiotic factors. Mapping and quantifying geographical variations in the occurrence of leptospirosis and the surrounding environment offer innovative methods to study disease transmission and to identify associations between the disease and the environment. This study aims to investigate geographic variations in leptospirosis incidence in the Netherlands and to identify associations with environmental factors driving the emergence of the disease. Individual case data derived over the period 1995-2012 in the Netherlands were geocoded and aggregated by municipality. Environmental covariate data were extracted for each municipality and stored in a spatial database. Spatial clusters were identified using kernel density estimations and quantified using local autocorrelation statistics. Associations between the incidence of leptospirosis and the local environment were determined using Simultaneous Autoregressive Models (SAR) explicitly modelling spatial dependence of the model residuals. Leptospirosis incidence rates were found to be spatially clustered, showing a marked spatial pattern. Fitting a spatial autoregressive model significantly improved model fit and revealed significant association between leptospirosis and the coverage of arable land, built up area, grassland and sabulous clay soils. The incidence of leptospirosis in the Netherlands could effectively be modelled using a combination of soil and land-use variables accounting for spatial dependence of incidence rates per municipality. The resulting spatially explicit risk predictions provide an important source of information which will benefit clinical awareness on potential leptospirosis infections in endemic areas.

Environmental risk of leptospirosis infections in the Netherlands: Spatial modelling of environmental risk factors of leptospirosis in the Netherlands

PubMed Central

Goris, Marga G. A.; Pijnacker, Roan; Bakker, Mirjam I.; Hartskeerl, Rudy A.

2017-01-01

Leptospirosis is a globally emerging zoonotic disease, associated with various climatic, biotic and abiotic factors. Mapping and quantifying geographical variations in the occurrence of leptospirosis and the surrounding environment offer innovative methods to study disease transmission and to identify associations between the disease and the environment. This study aims to investigate geographic variations in leptospirosis incidence in the Netherlands and to identify associations with environmental factors driving the emergence of the disease. Individual case data derived over the period 1995–2012 in the Netherlands were geocoded and aggregated by municipality. Environmental covariate data were extracted for each municipality and stored in a spatial database. Spatial clusters were identified using kernel density estimations and quantified using local autocorrelation statistics. Associations between the incidence of leptospirosis and the local environment were determined using Simultaneous Autoregressive Models (SAR) explicitly modelling spatial dependence of the model residuals. Leptospirosis incidence rates were found to be spatially clustered, showing a marked spatial pattern. Fitting a spatial autoregressive model significantly improved model fit and revealed significant association between leptospirosis and the coverage of arable land, built up area, grassland and sabulous clay soils. The incidence of leptospirosis in the Netherlands could effectively be modelled using a combination of soil and land-use variables accounting for spatial dependence of incidence rates per municipality. The resulting spatially explicit risk predictions provide an important source of information which will benefit clinical awareness on potential leptospirosis infections in endemic areas. PMID:29065186

Analyzing Variability in Landscape Nutrient Loading Using Spatially-Explicit Maps in the Great Lakes Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlin, Q. F.; Kendall, A. D.; Martin, S. L.; Whitenack, H. D.; Roush, J. A.; Hannah, B. A.; Hyndman, D. W.

2017-12-01

Excessive loading of nitrogen and phosphorous to the landscape has caused biologically and economically damaging eutrophication and harmful algal blooms in the Great Lakes Basin (GLB) and across the world. We mapped source-specific loads of nitrogen and phosphorous to the landscape using broadly available data across the GLB. SENSMap (Spatially Explicit Nutrient Source Map) is a 30m resolution snapshot of nutrient loads ca. 2010. We use these maps to study variable nutrient loading and provide this information to watershed managers through NOAA's GLB Tipping Points Planner. SENSMap individually maps nutrient point sources and six non-point sources: 1) atmospheric deposition, 2) septic tanks, 3) non-agricultural chemical fertilizer, 4) agricultural chemical fertilizer, 5) manure, and 6) nitrogen fixation from legumes. To model source-specific loads at high resolution, SENSMap synthesizes a wide range of remotely sensed, surveyed, and tabular data. Using these spatially explicit nutrient loading maps, we can better calibrate local land use-based water quality models and provide insight to watershed managers on how to focus nutrient reduction strategies. Here we examine differences in dominant nutrient sources across the GLB, and how those sources vary by land use. SENSMap's high resolution, source-specific approach offers a different lens to understand nutrient loading than traditional semi-distributed or land use based models.

Remote sensing of ecosystem health: opportunities, challenges, and future perspectives.

PubMed

Li, Zhaoqin; Xu, Dandan; Guo, Xulin

2014-11-07

Maintaining a healthy ecosystem is essential for maximizing sustainable ecological services of the best quality to human beings. Ecological and conservation research has provided a strong scientific background on identifying ecological health indicators and correspondingly making effective conservation plans. At the same time, ecologists have asserted a strong need for spatially explicit and temporally effective ecosystem health assessments based on remote sensing data. Currently, remote sensing of ecosystem health is only based on one ecosystem attribute: vigor, organization, or resilience. However, an effective ecosystem health assessment should be a comprehensive and dynamic measurement of the three attributes. This paper reviews opportunities of remote sensing, including optical, radar, and LiDAR, for directly estimating indicators of the three ecosystem attributes, discusses the main challenges to develop a remote sensing-based spatially-explicit comprehensive ecosystem health system, and provides some future perspectives. The main challenges to develop a remote sensing-based spatially-explicit comprehensive ecosystem health system are: (1) scale issue; (2) transportability issue; (3) data availability; and (4) uncertainties in health indicators estimated from remote sensing data. However, the Radarsat-2 constellation, upcoming new optical sensors on Worldview-3 and Sentinel-2 satellites, and improved technologies for the acquisition and processing of hyperspectral, multi-angle optical, radar, and LiDAR data and multi-sensoral data fusion may partly address the current challenges.

PHYLOGEOrec: A QGIS plugin for spatial phylogeographic reconstruction from phylogenetic tree and geographical information data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nashrulloh, Maulana Malik; Kurniawan, Nia; Rahardi, Brian

2017-11-01

The increasing availability of genetic sequence data associated with explicit geographic and environment (including biotic and abiotic components) information offers new opportunities to study the processes that shape biodiversity and its patterns. Developing phylogeography reconstruction, by integrating phylogenetic and biogeographic knowledge, provides richer and deeper visualization and information on diversification events than ever before. Geographical information systems such as QGIS provide an environment for spatial modeling, analysis, and dissemination by which phylogenetic models can be explicitly linked with their associated spatial data, and subsequently, they will be integrated with other related georeferenced datasets describing the biotic and abiotic environment. We are introducing PHYLOGEOrec, a QGIS plugin for building spatial phylogeographic reconstructions constructed from phylogenetic tree and geographical information data based on QGIS2threejs. By using PHYLOGEOrec, researchers can integrate existing phylogeny and geographical information data, resulting in three-dimensional geographic visualizations of phylogenetic trees in the Keyhole Markup Language (KML) format. Such formats can be overlaid on a map using QGIS and finally, spatially viewed in QGIS by means of a QGIS2threejs engine for further analysis. KML can also be viewed in reputable geobrowsers with KML-support (i.e., Google Earth).

Effect of assessment scale on spatial and temporal variations in CH4, C02, and N20 fluxes in a forested wetland

Treesearch

Zhaohua Dai; Carl Trettin; Changsheng Li; Harbin Li; Ge Sun; Devendra Amatya

2011-01-01

Emissions of methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), and nitrous oxide (N2O) from a forested watershed (160 ha) in South Carolina, USA, were estimated with a spatially explicit watershed-scale modeling framework that utilizes the spatial variations in physical and biogeochemical characteristics across watersheds. The target watershed (WS80) consisting of wetland (23%) and...

The Influence of Endogenous and Exogenous Spatial Attention on Decision Confidence.

PubMed

Kurtz, Phillipp; Shapcott, Katharine A; Kaiser, Jochen; Schmiedt, Joscha T; Schmid, Michael C

2017-07-25

Spatial attention allows us to make more accurate decisions about events in our environment. Decision confidence is thought to be intimately linked to the decision making process as confidence ratings are tightly coupled to decision accuracy. While both spatial attention and decision confidence have been subjected to extensive research, surprisingly little is known about the interaction between these two processes. Since attention increases performance it might be expected that confidence would also increase. However, two studies investigating the effects of endogenous attention on decision confidence found contradictory results. Here we investigated the effects of two distinct forms of spatial attention on decision confidence; endogenous attention and exogenous attention. We used an orientation-matching task, comparing the two attention conditions (endogenous and exogenous) to a control condition without directed attention. Participants performed better under both attention conditions than in the control condition. Higher confidence ratings than the control condition were found under endogenous attention but not under exogenous attention. This finding suggests that while attention can increase confidence ratings, it must be voluntarily deployed for this increase to take place. We discuss possible implications of this relative overconfidence found only during endogenous attention with respect to the theoretical background of decision confidence.

Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

Interference effects of categorization on decision making.

PubMed

Wang, Zheng; Busemeyer, Jerome R

2016-05-01

Many decision making tasks in life involve a categorization process, but the effects of categorization on subsequent decision making has rarely been studied. This issue was explored in three experiments (N=721), in which participants were shown a face stimulus on each trial and performed variations of categorization-decision tasks. On C-D trials, they categorized the stimulus and then made an action decision; on X-D trials, they were told the category and then made an action decision; on D-alone trials, they only made an action decision. An interference effect emerged in some of the conditions, such that the probability of an action on the D-alone trials (i.e., when there was no explicit categorization before the decision) differed from the total probability of the same action on the C-D or X-D trials (i.e., when there was explicit categorization before the decision). Interference effects are important because they indicate a violation of the classical law of total probability, which is assumed by many cognitive models. Across all three experiments, a complex pattern of interference effects systematically occurred for different types of stimuli and for different types of categorization-decision tasks. These interference effects present a challenge for traditional cognitive models, such as Markov and signal detection models, but a quantum cognition model, called the belief-action entanglement (BAE) model, predicted that these results could occur. The BAE model employs the quantum principles of superposition and entanglement to explain the psychological mechanisms underlying the puzzling interference effects. The model can be applied to many important and practical categorization-decision situations in life. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Traveltime-based descriptions of transport and mixing in heterogeneous domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jian; Cirpka, Olaf A.

2008-09-01

Modeling mixing-controlled reactive transport using traditional spatial discretization of the domain requires identifying the spatial distributions of hydraulic and reactive parameters including mixing-related quantities such as dispersivities and kinetic mass transfer coefficients. In most applications, breakthrough curves (BTCs) of conservative and reactive compounds are measured at only a few locations and spatially explicit models are calibrated by matching these BTCs. A common difficulty in such applications is that the individual BTCs differ too strongly to justify the assumption of spatial homogeneity, whereas the number of observation points is too small to identify the spatial distribution of the decisive parameters. The key objective of the current study is to characterize physical transport by the analysis of conservative tracer BTCs and predict the macroscopic BTCs of compounds that react upon mixing from the interpretation of conservative tracer BTCs and reactive parameters determined in the laboratory. We do this in the framework of traveltime-based transport models which do not require spatially explicit, costly aquifer characterization. By considering BTCs of a conservative tracer measured on different scales, one can distinguish between mixing, which is a prerequisite for reactions, and spreading, which per se does not foster reactions. In the traveltime-based framework, the BTC of a solute crossing an observation plane, or ending in a well, is interpreted as the weighted average of concentrations in an ensemble of non-interacting streamtubes, each of which is characterized by a distinct traveltime value. Mixing is described by longitudinal dispersion and/or kinetic mass transfer along individual streamtubes, whereas spreading is characterized by the distribution of traveltimes, which also determines the weights associated with each stream tube. Key issues in using the traveltime-based framework include the description of mixing mechanisms and the estimation of the traveltime distribution. In this work, we account for both apparent longitudinal dispersion and kinetic mass transfer as mixing mechanisms, thus generalizing the stochastic-convective model with or without inter-phase mass transfer and the advective-dispersive streamtube model. We present a nonparametric approach of determining the traveltime distribution, given a BTC integrated over an observation plane and estimated mixing parameters. The latter approach is superior to fitting parametric models in cases wherein the true traveltime distribution exhibits multiple peaks or long tails. It is demonstrated that there is freedom for the combinations of mixing parameters and traveltime distributions to fit conservative BTCs and describe the tailing. A reactive transport case of a dual Michaelis-Menten problem demonstrates that the reactive mixing introduced by local dispersion and mass transfer may be described by apparent mean mass transfer with coefficients evaluated by local BTCs.

Video-based training to improve perceptual-cognitive decision-making performance of Australian football umpires.

PubMed

Larkin, Paul; Mesagno, Christopher; Berry, Jason; Spittle, Michael; Harvey, Jack

2018-02-01

Decision-making is a central component of the in-game performance of Australian football umpires; however, current umpire training focuses largely on physiological development with decision-making skills development conducted via explicit lecture-style meetings with limited practice devoted to making actual decisions. Therefore, this study investigated the efficacy of a video-based training programme, aimed to provide a greater amount of contextualised visual experiences without explicit instruction, to improve decision-making skills of umpires. Australian football umpires (n = 52) were recruited from metropolitan and regional Division 1 competitions. Participants were randomly assigned to an intervention or control group and classified according to previous umpire game experience (i.e., experienced; less experienced). The intervention group completed a 12-week video-based decision-making training programme, with decision-making performance assessed at pre-training, and 1-week retention and 3-week retention periods. The control group did not complete any video-based training. Results indicated a significant Group (intervention; Control) × Test interaction (F(1, 100) = 3.98; P = 0.02, partial ῆ 2  = 0.074), with follow-up pairwise comparisons indicating significant within-group differences over time for the intervention group. In addition, decision-making performance of the less experienced umpires in the intervention group significantly improved (F(2, 40) = 5.03, P = 0.01, partial ῆ 2  = 0.201). Thus, video-based training programmes may be a viable adjunct to current training programmes to hasten decision-making development, especially for less experienced umpires.

Health and wellbeing boards: public health decision making bodies or political pawns?

PubMed

Greaves, Z; McCafferty, S

2017-02-01

Health and Wellbeing boards in England are uniquely constituted; embedded in the local authorities with membership drawn from a range of stakeholders and partner organizations. This raises the question of how decision making functions of the boards reflects wider public health decision making, if criteria are applied to decision making, and what prioritization processes, if any, are used. Qualitative research methods were employed and five local boards were approached, interview dyads were conducted with the boards Chair and Director of Public Health across four of these (n = 4). Three questions were addressed: how are decisions made? What are the criteria applied to decision making? And how are criteria then prioritized? A thematic approach was used to analyse data identifying codes and extracting key themes. Equity, effectiveness and consistency with strategies of board and partners were most consistently identified by participants as criteria influencing decisions. Prioritization was described as an engaged and collaborative process, but criteria were not explicitly referenced in the decision making of the boards which instead made unstructured prioritization of population sub-groups or interventions agreed by consensus. Criteria identified are broadly consistent with those used in wider public health practice but additionally incorporated criteria which recognizes the political siting of the boards. The study explored the variety in different board's approaches to prioritization and identified a lack of clarity and rigour in the identification and use of criteria in prioritization processes. Decision making may benefit from the explicit inclusion of criteria in the prioritization process. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bringing ecosystem services into integrated water resources management.

PubMed

Liu, Shuang; Crossman, Neville D; Nolan, Martin; Ghirmay, Hiyoba

2013-11-15

In this paper we propose an ecosystem service framework to support integrated water resource management and apply it to the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia. Water resources in the Murray-Darling Basin have been over-allocated for irrigation use with the consequent degradation of freshwater ecosystems. In line with integrated water resource management principles, Australian Government reforms are reducing the amount of water diverted for irrigation to improve ecosystem health. However, limited understanding of the broader benefits and trade-offs associated with reducing irrigation diversions has hampered the planning process supporting this reform. Ecosystem services offer an integrative framework to identify the broader benefits associated with integrated water resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin, thereby providing support for the Government to reform decision-making. We conducted a multi-criteria decision analysis for ranking regional potentials to provide ecosystem services at river basin scale. We surveyed the wider public about their understanding of, and priorities for, managing ecosystem services and then integrated the results with spatially explicit indicators of ecosystem service provision. The preliminary results of this work identified the sub-catchments with the greatest potential synergies and trade-offs of ecosystem service provision under the integrated water resources management reform process. With future development, our framework could be used as a decision support tool by those grappling with the challenge of the sustainable allocation of water between irrigation and the environment. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An integrated multi-criteria scenario evaluation web tool for participatory land-use planning in urbanized areas: The Ecosystem Portfolio Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Labiosa, Bill; Forney, William M.; Hearn,, Paul P.; Hogan, Dianna M.; Strong, David R.; Swain, Eric D.; Esnard, Ann-Margaret; Mitsova-Boneva, D.; Bernknopf, R.; Pearlstine, Leonard; Gladwin, Hugh

2013-01-01

Land-use land-cover change is one of the most important and direct drivers of changes in ecosystem functions and services. Given the complexity of the decision-making, there is a need for Internet-based decision support systems with scenario evaluation capabilities to help planners, resource managers and communities visualize, compare and consider trade-offs among the many values at stake in land use planning. This article presents details on an Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype that integrates ecological, socio-economic information and associated values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multi-criteria scenario evaluation framework, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit land-use/land-cover change-sensitive models to characterize changes in important land-cover related ecosystem values related to ecosystem services and functions, land parcel prices, and community quality-of-life (QoL) metrics. Parameters in the underlying models can be modified through the interface, allowing users in a facilitated group setting to explore simultaneously issues of scientific uncertainty and divergence in the preferences of stakeholders. One application of the South Florida EPM prototype reported in this article shows the modeled changes (which are significant) in aggregate ecological value, landscape patterns and fragmentation, biodiversity potential and ecological restoration potential for current land uses compared to the 2050 land-use scenario. Ongoing refinements to EPM, and future work especially in regard to modifiable sea level rise scenarios are also discussed.

Influence of spatial temperature estimation method in ecohydrologic modeling in the western Oregon Cascades

Treesearch

E. Garcia; C.L. Tague; J. Choate

2013-01-01

Most spatially explicit hydrologic models require estimates of air temperature patterns. For these models, empirical relationships between elevation and air temperature are frequently used to upscale point measurements or downscale regional and global climate model estimates of air temperature. Mountainous environments are particularly sensitive to air temperature...

Landscape ecology: Past, present, and future [Chapter 4

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Jeffrey S. Evans; Kevin McGarigal

2010-01-01

In the preceding chapters we discussed the central role that spatial and temporal variability play in ecological systems, the importance of addressing these explicitly within ecological analyses and the resulting need to carefully consider spatial and temporal scale and scaling. Landscape ecology is the science of linking patterns and processes across scale in both...

QUALITY ASSURANCE AND QUALITY CONTROL IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF THE AUTOMATED GEOSPATIAL WATERSHED ASSESSMENT (AGWA) TOOL

EPA Science Inventory

Planning and assessment in land and water resource management are evolving from simple, local-scale problems toward complex, spatially explicit regional ones. Such problems have to be addressed with distributed models that can compute runoff and erosion at different spatial and t...

REMOTE SENSING AND SPATIALLY EXPLICIT LANDSCAPE-BASED NITROGEN MODELING METHODS DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEUSE RIVER BASIN, NC

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this research was to model and map the spatial patterns of excess nitrogen (N) sources across the landscape within the Neuse River Basin (NRB) of North
Carolina. The process included an initial land cover characterization effort to map landscape "patches" at ...

Simulating spatial and temporal context of forest management using hypothetical landscapes

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Thomas R. Crow

1998-01-01

Spatially explicit models that combine remote sensing with geographic information systems (GIS) offer great promise to land managers because they consider the arrangement of landscape elements in time and space. Their visual and geographic nature facilitate the comparison of alternative landscape designs. Among various activities associated with forest management,...

Hierarchical spatial models for predicting tree species assemblages across large domains

Treesearch

Andrew O. Finley; Sudipto Banerjee; Ronald E. McRoberts

2009-01-01

Spatially explicit data layers of tree species assemblages, referred to as forest types or forest type groups, are a key component in large-scale assessments of forest sustainability, biodiversity, timber biomass, carbon sinks and forest health monitoring. This paper explores the utility of coupling georeferenced national forest inventory (NFI) data with readily...

Scale dependency of American marten (Martes americana) habitat relations [Chapter 12

Treesearch

Andrew J. Shirk; Tzeidle N. Wasserman; Samuel A. Cushman; Martin G. Raphael

2012-01-01

Animals select habitat resources at multiple spatial scales; therefore, explicit attention to scale-dependency when modeling habitat relations is critical to understanding how organisms select habitat in complex landscapes. Models that evaluate habitat variables calculated at a single spatial scale (e.g., patch, home range) fail to account for the effects of...

Quantifying the lag time to detect barriers in landscape genetics

Treesearch

E. L. Landguth; S. A Cushman; M. K. Schwartz; K. S. McKelvey; M. Murphy; G. Luikart

2010-01-01

Understanding how spatial genetic patterns respond to landscape change is crucial for advancing the emerging field of landscape genetics. We quantified the number of generations for new landscape barrier signatures to become detectable and for old signatures to disappear after barrier removal. We used spatially explicit, individualbased simulations to examine the...

Landsat's role in ecological applications of remote sensing.

Treesearch

Warren B. Cohen; Samuel N. Goward

2004-01-01

Remote sensing, geographic information systems, and modeling have combined to produce a virtual explosion of growth in ecological investigations and applications that are explicitly spatial and temporal. Of all remotely sensed data, those acquired by landsat sensors have played the most pivotal role in spatial and temporal scaling. Modern terrestrial ecology relies on...

Integrating Spatial Components into FIA Models of Forest Resources: Some Technical Aspects

Treesearch

Pat Terletzky; Tracey Frescino

2005-01-01

We examined two software packages to determine their feasibility of implementing spatially explicit, forest resource models that integrate Forest Inventory and Analysis data (FIA). ARCINFO and Interactive Data Language (IDL) were examined for their input requirements, speed of processing, storage requirements, and flexibility of implementing. Implementations of two...

A BAYES LIKELIHOOD INFORMATION THEORETIC APPROACH FOR THE EXOGENOUS AGGREGATION OF REGIONAL GROUND WATER QUALITY DATA

EPA Science Inventory

This work addresses a potentially serious problem in analysis or synthesis of spatially explicit data on ground water quality from wells, known to geographers as the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). It results from the fact that in regional aggregation of spatial data, inves...

Implication of the first decision on visual information-sampling in the spatial frequency domain in pulmonary nodule recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietrzyk, Mariusz W.; Manning, David; Donovan, Tim; Dix, Alan

2010-02-01

Aim: To investigate the impact on visual sampling strategy and pulmonary nodule recognition of image-based properties of background locations in dwelled regions where the first overt decision was made. . Background: Recent studies in mammography show that the first overt decision (TP or FP) has an influence on further image reading including the correctness of the following decisions. Furthermore, the correlation between the spatial frequency properties of the local background following decision sites and the first decision correctness has been reported. Methods: Subjects with different radiological experience were eye tracked during detection of pulmonary nodules from PA chest radiographs. Number of outcomes and the overall quality of performance are analysed in terms of the cases where correct or incorrect decisions were made. JAFROC methodology is applied. The spatial frequency properties of selected local backgrounds related to a certain decisions were studied. ANOVA was used to compare the logarithmic values of energy carried by non redundant stationary wavelet packet coefficients. Results: A strong correlation has been found between the number of TP as a first decision and the JAFROC score (r = 0.74). The number of FP as a first decision was found negatively correlated with JAFROC (r = -0.75). Moreover, the differential spatial frequency profiles outcomes depend on the first choice correctness.

A Review of High-Order and Optimized Finite-Difference Methods for Simulating Linear Wave Phenomena

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zingg, David W.

1996-01-01

This paper presents a review of high-order and optimized finite-difference methods for numerically simulating the propagation and scattering of linear waves, such as electromagnetic, acoustic, or elastic waves. The spatial operators reviewed include compact schemes, non-compact schemes, schemes on staggered grids, and schemes which are optimized to produce specific characteristics. The time-marching methods discussed include Runge-Kutta methods, Adams-Bashforth methods, and the leapfrog method. In addition, the following fourth-order fully-discrete finite-difference methods are considered: a one-step implicit scheme with a three-point spatial stencil, a one-step explicit scheme with a five-point spatial stencil, and a two-step explicit scheme with a five-point spatial stencil. For each method studied, the number of grid points per wavelength required for accurate simulation of wave propagation over large distances is presented. Recommendations are made with respect to the suitability of the methods for specific problems and practical aspects of their use, such as appropriate Courant numbers and grid densities. Avenues for future research are suggested.

Spatial occupancy models for large data sets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Devin S.; Conn, Paul B.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Ray, Justina C.; Pond, Bruce A.

2013-01-01

Since its development, occupancy modeling has become a popular and useful tool for ecologists wishing to learn about the dynamics of species occurrence over time and space. Such models require presence–absence data to be collected at spatially indexed survey units. However, only recently have researchers recognized the need to correct for spatially induced overdisperison by explicitly accounting for spatial autocorrelation in occupancy probability. Previous efforts to incorporate such autocorrelation have largely focused on logit-normal formulations for occupancy, with spatial autocorrelation induced by a random effect within a hierarchical modeling framework. Although useful, computational time generally limits such an approach to relatively small data sets, and there are often problems with algorithm instability, yielding unsatisfactory results. Further, recent research has revealed a hidden form of multicollinearity in such applications, which may lead to parameter bias if not explicitly addressed. Combining several techniques, we present a unifying hierarchical spatial occupancy model specification that is particularly effective over large spatial extents. This approach employs a probit mixture framework for occupancy and can easily accommodate a reduced-dimensional spatial process to resolve issues with multicollinearity and spatial confounding while improving algorithm convergence. Using open-source software, we demonstrate this new model specification using a case study involving occupancy of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) over a set of 1080 survey units spanning a large contiguous region (108 000 km2) in northern Ontario, Canada. Overall, the combination of a more efficient specification and open-source software allows for a facile and stable implementation of spatial occupancy models for large data sets.

Discussion. Think SMART, Not Hard--A Review of Teaching Decision Making in Sport from an Ecological Rationality Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raab, Markus

2007-01-01

Background: Recent developments of theories for teaching decision making in sport offer a large variety of applications for the context of physical education. Purpose: This review of current models of teaching tactical skills concludes that most models incorporate different cognitive learning mechanisms, such as implicit and explicit learning, and…

Managing in a Culture of Debate: Enhancing Administrative Effectiveness through Procedural Fairness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moshavi, Dan; Standifird, Stephen

2017-01-01

The contestability of ideas is at the heart of a healthy academic institution. As a result, administrators face the challenge of making and implementing difficult decisions in an environment that is designed to explicitly create thoughtful discord. We argue that procedural fairness--explaining how and why important decisions are made--is an…

Class of self-limiting growth models in the presence of nonlinear diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kar, Sandip; Banik, Suman Kumar; Ray, Deb Shankar

2002-06-01

The source term in a reaction-diffusion system, in general, does not involve explicit time dependence. A class of self-limiting growth models dealing with animal and tumor growth and bacterial population in a culture, on the other hand, are described by kinetics with explicit functions of time. We analyze a reaction-diffusion system to study the propagation of spatial front for these models.

Monitoring the trajectory of urban nighttime light hotspots using a Gaussian volume model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Qiming; Jiang, Ruowei; Wang, Ke; Huang, Lingyan; Ye, Ziran; Gan, Muye; Ji, Biyong

2018-03-01

Urban nighttime light hotspot is an ideal representation of the spatial heterogeneity of human activities within a city, which is sensitive to regional urban expansion pattern. However, most of previous studies related to nighttime light imageries focused on extracting urban extent, leaving the spatial variation of radiance intensity insufficiently explored. With the help of global radiance calibrated DMSP-OLS datasets (NTLgrc), we proposed an innovative framework to explore the spatio-temporal trajectory of polycentric urban nighttime light hotspots. Firstly, NTLgrc was inter-annually calibrated to improve the consistency. Secondly, multi-resolution segmentation and region-growing SVM classification were employed to remove blooming effect and to extract potential clusters. At last, the urban hotspots were identified by a Gaussian volume model, and the resulting parameters were used to quantitatively depict hotspot features (i.e., intensity, morphology and centroid dynamics). The result shows that our framework successfully captures hotspots in polycentric urban area, whose Ra2 are over 0.9. Meanwhile, the spatio-temporal dynamics of the hotspot features intuitively reveal the impact of the regional urban growth pattern and planning strategies on human activities. Compared to previous studies, our framework is more robust and offers an effective way to describe hotspot pattern. Also, it provides a more comprehensive and spatial-explicit understanding regarding the interaction between urbanization pattern and human activities. Our findings are expected to be beneficial to governors in term of sustainable urban planning and decision making.

Biomechanics meets the ecological niche: the importance of temporal data resolution.

PubMed

Kearney, Michael R; Matzelle, Allison; Helmuth, Brian

2012-03-15

The emerging field of mechanistic niche modelling aims to link the functional traits of organisms to their environments to predict survival, reproduction, distribution and abundance. This approach has great potential to increase our understanding of the impacts of environmental change on individuals, populations and communities by providing functional connections between physiological and ecological response to increasingly available spatial environmental data. By their nature, such mechanistic models are more data intensive in comparison with the more widely applied correlative approaches but can potentially provide more spatially and temporally explicit predictions, which are often needed by decision makers. A poorly explored issue in this context is the appropriate level of temporal resolution of input data required for these models, and specifically the error in predictions that can be incurred through the use of temporally averaged data. Here, we review how biomechanical principles from heat-transfer and metabolic theory are currently being used as foundations for mechanistic niche models and consider the consequences of different temporal resolutions of environmental data for modelling the niche of a behaviourally thermoregulating terrestrial lizard. We show that fine-scale temporal resolution (daily) data can be crucial for unbiased inference of climatic impacts on survival, growth and reproduction. This is especially so for species with little capacity for behavioural buffering, because of behavioural or habitat constraints, and for detecting temporal trends. However, coarser-resolution data (long-term monthly averages) can be appropriate for mechanistic studies of climatic constraints on distribution and abundance limits in thermoregulating species at broad spatial scales.

Latent spatial models and sampling design for landscape genetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Knick, Steven T.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Fike, Jennifer A.; Cross, Todd B.; Schwartz, Michael K.

2016-01-01

We propose a spatially-explicit approach for modeling genetic variation across space and illustrate how this approach can be used to optimize spatial prediction and sampling design for landscape genetic data. We propose a multinomial data model for categorical microsatellite allele data commonly used in landscape genetic studies, and introduce a latent spatial random effect to allow for spatial correlation between genetic observations. We illustrate how modern dimension reduction approaches to spatial statistics can allow for efficient computation in landscape genetic statistical models covering large spatial domains. We apply our approach to propose a retrospective spatial sampling design for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population genetics in the western United States.

Simulated hydrologic response to projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the Congo River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aloysius, Noel; Saiers, James

2017-08-01

Despite their global significance, the impacts of climate change on water resources and associated ecosystem services in the Congo River basin (CRB) have been understudied. Of particular need for decision makers is the availability of spatial and temporal variability of runoff projections. Here, with the aid of a spatially explicit hydrological model forced with precipitation and temperature projections from 25 global climate models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we explore the variability in modeled runoff in the near future (2016-2035) and mid-century (2046-2065). We find that total runoff from the CRB is projected to increase by 5 % [-9 %; 20 %] (mean - min and max - across model ensembles) over the next two decades and by 7 % [-12 %; 24 %] by mid-century. Projected changes in runoff from subwatersheds distributed within the CRB vary in magnitude and sign. Over the equatorial region and in parts of northern and southwestern CRB, most models project an overall increase in precipitation and, subsequently, runoff. A simulated decrease in precipitation leads to a decline in runoff from headwater regions located in the northeastern and southeastern CRB. Climate model selection plays an important role in future projections for both magnitude and direction of change. The multimodel ensemble approach reveals that precipitation and runoff changes under business-as-usual and avoided greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5 vs. RCP4.5) are relatively similar in the near term but deviate in the midterm, which underscores the need for rapid action on climate change adaptation. Our assessment demonstrates the need to include uncertainties in climate model and emission scenario selection during decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) coupled with reference interaction site model self-consistent field explicitly including spatial electron density distribution (RISM-SCF-SEDD)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yokogawa, D., E-mail: d.yokogawa@chem.nagoya-u.ac.jp; Institute of Transformative Bio-Molecules

2016-09-07

Theoretical approach to design bright bio-imaging molecules is one of the most progressing ones. However, because of the system size and computational accuracy, the number of theoretical studies is limited to our knowledge. To overcome the difficulties, we developed a new method based on reference interaction site model self-consistent field explicitly including spatial electron density distribution and time-dependent density functional theory. We applied it to the calculation of indole and 5-cyanoindole at ground and excited states in gas and solution phases. The changes in the optimized geometries were clearly explained with resonance structures and the Stokes shift was correctly reproduced.

Spatial attention during saccade decisions.

PubMed

Jonikaitis, Donatas; Klapetek, Anna; Deubel, Heiner

2017-07-01

Behavioral measures of decision making are usually limited to observations of decision outcomes. In the present study, we made use of the fact that oculomotor and sensory selection are closely linked to track oculomotor decision making before oculomotor responses are made. We asked participants to make a saccadic eye movement to one of two memorized target locations and observed that visual sensitivity increased at both the chosen and the nonchosen saccade target locations, with a clear bias toward the chosen target. The time course of changes in visual sensitivity was related to saccadic latency, with the competition between the chosen and nonchosen targets resolved faster before short-latency saccades. On error trials, we observed an increased competition between the chosen and nonchosen targets. Moreover, oculomotor selection and visual sensitivity were influenced by top-down and bottom-up factors as well as by selection history and predicted the direction of saccades. Our findings demonstrate that saccade decisions have direct visual consequences and show that decision making can be traced in the human oculomotor system well before choices are made. Our results also indicate a strong association between decision making, saccade target selection, and visual sensitivity. NEW & NOTEWORTHY We show that saccadic decisions can be tracked by measuring spatial attention. Spatial attention is allocated in parallel to the two competing saccade targets, and the time course of spatial attention differs for fast-slow and for correct-erroneous decisions. Saccade decisions take the form of a competition between potential saccade goals, which is associated with spatial attention allocation to those locations. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Comparative-effectiveness research to aid population decision making by relating clinical outcomes and quality-adjusted life years.

PubMed

Campbell, Jonathan D; Zerzan, Judy; Garrison, Louis P; Libby, Anne M

2013-04-01

Comparative-effectiveness research (CER) at the population level is missing standardized approaches to quantify and weigh interventions in terms of their clinical risks, benefits, and uncertainty. We proposed an adapted CER framework for population decision making, provided example displays of the outputs, and discussed the implications for population decision makers. Building on decision-analytical modeling but excluding cost, we proposed a 2-step approach to CER that explicitly compared interventions in terms of clinical risks and benefits and linked this evidence to the quality-adjusted life year (QALY). The first step was a traditional intervention-specific evidence synthesis of risks and benefits. The second step was a decision-analytical model to simulate intervention-specific progression of disease over an appropriate time. The output was the ability to compare and quantitatively link clinical outcomes with QALYs. The outputs from these CER models include clinical risks, benefits, and QALYs over flexible and relevant time horizons. This approach yields an explicit, structured, and consistent quantitative framework to weigh all relevant clinical measures. Population decision makers can use this modeling framework and QALYs to aid in their judgment of the individual and collective risks and benefits of the alternatives over time. Future research should study effective communication of these domains for stakeholders. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

2015-04-01

Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

Five challenges for spatial epidemic models.

PubMed

Riley, Steven; Eames, Ken; Isham, Valerie; Mollison, Denis; Trapman, Pieter

2015-03-01

Infectious disease incidence data are increasingly available at the level of the individual and include high-resolution spatial components. Therefore, we are now better able to challenge models that explicitly represent space. Here, we consider five topics within spatial disease dynamics: the construction of network models; characterising threshold behaviour; modelling long-distance interactions; the appropriate scale for interventions; and the representation of population heterogeneity. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Executive functions and risky decision-making in patients with opiate dependence.

PubMed

Brand, Matthias; Roth-Bauer, Martina; Driessen, Martin; Markowitsch, Hans J

2008-09-01

Recent evidence suggests that individuals with opiate dependence may have cognitive dysfunctions particularly within the spectrum of executive functioning and emotional processing. Such dysfunctions can also compromise daily decisions associated with risk-taking behaviors. However, it remains unclear whether patients addicted to opiates show impaired decision-making on gambling tasks that specify explicit rules for rewards and punishments and provide information about probabilities associated with different long-term outcomes. In this study, we examined 18 individuals with opiate dependence and 18 healthy comparison subjects, matched for age, gender, and education with the Game of Dice Task (GDT). The GDT is a gambling task with explicit rules for gains and losses and fix winning probabilities. In addition, all subjects completed a neuropsychological test battery that primarily focused on executive functions and a personality questionnaire. On the GDT, patients chose the risky alternatives more frequently than the control group. Patients' GDT performance was related to executive functioning but not to other neuropsychological constructs, personality or dependence specific variables with one exception that is the number of days of abstinence. Thus, patients with opiate dependence demonstrate abnormalities in decision-making that might be neuropsychologically associated with dysfunctional behavior in patients' daily lives. Decision-making and other neuropsychological functioning should be considered in the treatment of opiate dependence.

Aspects of decision support in water management--example Berlin and Potsdam (Germany) I--spatially differentiated evaluation.

PubMed

Simon, Ute; Brüggemann, Rainer; Pudenz, Stefan

2004-04-01

Decisions about sustainable development demand spatially differentiated evaluations. As an example, we demonstrate the evaluation of water management strategies in the cities of Berlin and Potsdam (Germany) with respect to their ecological effects in 14 sections of the surface water system. Two decision support systems were compared, namely PROMETHEE, which is designed to obtain a clear decision (linear ranking), and Hasse Diagram Technique (HDT), normally providing more than one favourable solution (partial order). By PROMETHEE, the spatial differentiation had unwanted effects on the result, negating the stakeholders determined weighting of indicators. Therefore, the stakeholder can barely benefit from the convenience of obtaining a clear decision (linear ranking). In contrast, the result obtained by HDT was not influenced by spatial differentiation. Furthermore, HDT provided helpful tools to analyse the evaluation result, such as the concept of antagonistic indicators to discover conflicts in the evaluation process.

Difficult end-of-life treatment decisions: do other factors trump advance directives?

PubMed

Hardin, Steven B; Yusufaly, Yasmin A

2004-07-26

Advance directives are widely promoted as a means to plan for patients' decisional incapacity, yet there is little evidence of their effectiveness. We devised a study to assess physicians' compliance with hypothetical advance directives and further examine their clinical reasoning. The study consisted of an analysis of a mailed written survey containing 6 hypothetical cases of seriously ill patients. Each case contained an explicit advance directive with potential conflict between the directive and (1) prognosis, (2) wishes of family or friends, or (3) quality of life. Data were collected on the clinical treatment decisions made by physicians and the reasons for those decisions. Study participants were all internal medicine faculty and resident physicians from a single academic institution. A total of 47% analyzable surveys (117/250) were returned. Decisions by faculty and residents were not consistent with the advance directive in 65% of cases. This inconsistency was similar for faculty and residents (68% and 61%, respectively; P>.05). When physicians made decisions inconsistent with the advance directive, they were more likely to list reasons other than the directive for their decisions (89%; P<.001). Internists frequently made treatment decisions that were not consistent with an explicit advance directive. In difficult clinical situations, internists appear to consider other factors such as prognosis, perceived quality of life, and the wishes of family or friends as more determinative than the directive. Future work needs to explore the generalizability of these findings and examine how strictly patients desire their advance directives to be followed.

Incorporating land-use requirements and environmental constraints in low-carbon electricity planning for California.

PubMed

Wu, Grace C; Torn, Margaret S; Williams, James H

2015-02-17

The land-use implications of deep decarbonization of the electricity sector (e.g., 80% below 1990 emissions) have not been well-characterized quantitatively or spatially. We assessed the operational-phase land-use requirements of different low-carbon scenarios for California in 2050 and found that most scenarios have comparable direct land footprints. While the per MWh footprint of renewable energy (RE) generation is initially higher, that of fossil and nuclear generation increases over time with continued fuel use. We built a spatially explicit model to understand the interactions between resource quality and environmental constraints in a high RE scenario (>70% of total generation). We found that there is sufficient land within California to meet the solar and geothermal targets, but areas with the highest quality wind and solar resources also tend to be those with high conservation value. Development of some land with lower conservation value results in lower average capacity factors, but also provides opportunity for colocation of different generation technologies, which could significantly improve land-use efficiency and reduce permitting, leasing, and transmission infrastructure costs. Basing siting decisions on environmentally-constrained long-term RE build-out requirements produces significantly different results, including better conservation outcomes, than implied by the current piecemeal approach to planning.

Texas urban triangle : creating a spatial decision support system for mobility policy and investments that shape the sustainable growth of Texas.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-11-01

This project developed a GIS-based Spatial Decision Support System to help local, metropolitan, and state : jurisdictions and authorities in Texas understand the implications of transportation planning and : investment decisions, and plan appropriate...

Generalized reproduction numbers and the prediction of patterns in waterborne disease.

PubMed

Gatto, Marino; Mari, Lorenzo; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Casagrandi, Renato; Righetto, Lorenzo; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

2012-11-27

Understanding, predicting, and controlling outbreaks of waterborne diseases are crucial goals of public health policies, but pose challenging problems because infection patterns are influenced by spatial structure and temporal asynchrony. Although explicit spatial modeling is made possible by widespread data mapping of hydrology, transportation infrastructure, population distribution, and sanitation, the precise condition under which a waterborne disease epidemic can start in a spatially explicit setting is still lacking. Here we show that the requirement that all the local reproduction numbers R0 be larger than unity is neither necessary nor sufficient for outbreaks to occur when local settlements are connected by networks of primary and secondary infection mechanisms. To determine onset conditions, we derive general analytical expressions for a reproduction matrix G0, explicitly accounting for spatial distributions of human settlements and pathogen transmission via hydrological and human mobility networks. At disease onset, a generalized reproduction number Λ0 (the dominant eigenvalue of G0) must be larger than unity. We also show that geographical outbreak patterns in complex environments are linked to the dominant eigenvector and to spectral properties of G0. Tests against data and computations for the 2010 Haiti and 2000 KwaZulu-Natal cholera outbreaks, as well as against computations for metapopulation networks, demonstrate that eigenvectors of G0 provide a synthetic and effective tool for predicting the disease course in space and time. Networked connectivity models, describing the interplay between hydrology, epidemiology, and social behavior sustaining human mobility, thus prove to be key tools for emergency management of waterborne infections.

Assessing implicit odor localization in humans using a cross-modal spatial cueing paradigm.

PubMed

Moessnang, Carolin; Finkelmeyer, Andreas; Vossen, Alexandra; Schneider, Frank; Habel, Ute

2011-01-01

Navigation based on chemosensory information is one of the most important skills in the animal kingdom. Studies on odor localization suggest that humans have lost this ability. However, the experimental approaches used so far were limited to explicit judgements, which might ignore a residual ability for directional smelling on an implicit level without conscious appraisal. A novel cueing paradigm was developed in order to determine whether an implicit ability for directional smelling exists. Participants performed a visual two-alternative forced choice task in which the target was preceded either by a side-congruent or a side-incongruent olfactory spatial cue. An explicit odor localization task was implemented in a second experiment. No effect of cue congruency on mean reaction times could be found. However, a time by condition interaction emerged, with significantly slower responses to congruently compared to incongruently cued targets at the beginning of the experiment. This cueing effect gradually disappeared throughout the course of the experiment. In addition, participants performed at chance level in the explicit odor localization task, thus confirming the results of previous research. The implicit cueing task suggests the existence of spatial information processing in the olfactory system. Response slowing after a side-congruent olfactory cue is interpreted as a cross-modal attentional interference effect. In addition, habituation might have led to a gradual disappearance of the cueing effect. It is concluded that under immobile conditions with passive monorhinal stimulation, humans are unable to explicitly determine the location of a pure odorant. Implicitly, however, odor localization seems to exert an influence on human behaviour. To our knowledge, these data are the first to show implicit effects of odor localization on overt human behaviour and thus support the hypothesis of residual directional smelling in humans. © 2011 Moessnang et al.

Computing an optimal time window of audiovisual integration in focused attention tasks: illustrated by studies on effect of age and prior knowledge.

PubMed

Colonius, Hans; Diederich, Adele

2011-07-01

The concept of a "time window of integration" holds that information from different sensory modalities must not be perceived too far apart in time in order to be integrated into a multisensory perceptual event. Empirical estimates of window width differ widely, however, ranging from 40 to 600 ms depending on context and experimental paradigm. Searching for theoretical derivation of window width, Colonius and Diederich (Front Integr Neurosci 2010) developed a decision-theoretic framework using a decision rule that is based on the prior probability of a common source, the likelihood of temporal disparities between the unimodal signals, and the payoff for making right or wrong decisions. Here, this framework is extended to the focused attention task where subjects are asked to respond to signals from a target modality only. Evoking the framework of the time-window-of-integration (TWIN) model, an explicit expression for optimal window width is obtained. The approach is probed on two published focused attention studies. The first is a saccadic reaction time study assessing the efficiency with which multisensory integration varies as a function of aging. Although the window widths for young and older adults differ by nearly 200 ms, presumably due to their different peripheral processing speeds, neither of them deviates significantly from the optimal values. In the second study, head saccadic reactions times to a perfectly aligned audiovisual stimulus pair had been shown to depend on the prior probability of spatial alignment. Intriguingly, they reflected the magnitude of the time-window widths predicted by our decision-theoretic framework, i.e., a larger time window is associated with a higher prior probability.

Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: A Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodhouse, T.J.; Irvine, K.M.; Vierling, K.T.; Vierling, L.A.

2011-01-01

Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas]) population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones") with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity-a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

Implicit and explicit mechanisms of word learning in a narrative context: an event-related potential study

PubMed Central

Batterink, Laura; Neville, Helen

2011-01-01

The vast majority of word meanings are learned simply by extracting them from context, rather than by rote memorization or explicit instruction. Although this skill is remarkable, little is known about the brain mechanisms involved. In the present study, ERPs were recorded as participants read stories in which pseudowords were presented multiple times, embedded in consistent, meaningful contexts (referred to as meaning condition, M+) or inconsistent, meaningless contexts (M−). Word learning was then assessed implicitly using a lexical decision task and explicitly through recall and recognition tasks. Overall, during story reading, M− words elicited a larger N400 than M+ words, suggesting that participants were better able to semantically integrate M+ words than M− words throughout the story. In addition, M+ words whose meanings were subsequently correctly recognized and recalled elicited a more positive ERP in a later time-window compared to M+ words whose meanings were incorrectly remembered, consistent with the idea that the late positive component (LPC) is an index of encoding processes. In the lexical decision task, no behavioral or electrophysiological evidence for implicit priming was found for M+ words. In contrast, during the explicit recognition task, M+ words showed a robust N400 effect. The N400 effect was dependent upon recognition performance, such that only correctly recognized M+ words elicited an N400. This pattern of results provides evidence that the explicit representations of word meanings can develop rapidly, while implicit representations may require more extensive exposure or more time to emerge. PMID:21452941

[Population estimates and conservation of felids (Carnivora: Felidae) in Northern Quintana Roo, Mexico].

PubMed

Ávila-Nájera, Dulce María; Chávez, Cuauhtémoc; Lazcano-Barrero, Marco A; Pérez-Elizalde, Sergio; Alcántara-Carbajal, José Luis

2015-09-01

Wildlife density estimates provide an idea of the current state of populations, and in some cases, reflect the conservation status of ecosystems, essential aspects for effective management actions. In Mexico, several regions have been identified as high priority areas for the conservation of species that have some level of risk, like the Yucatan Peninsula (YP), where the country has the largest population of jaguars. However, little is known about the current status of threatened and endangered felids, which coexist in the Northeastern portion of the Peninsula. Our objective was to estimate the wild cats' density population over time at El Eden Ecological Reserve (EEER) and its surrounding areas. Camera trap surveys over four years (2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012) were conducted, and data were obtained with the use of capture-recapture models for closed populations (CAPTURE + MMDM or 1/2 MMDM), and the spatially explicit capture-recapture model (SPACECAP). The species studied were jaguar (Panthera onca), puma (Puma concolor), ocelot (Leopardus pardalis), jaguarundi (Puma yaguaroundi) and margay (Leopardus wiedii). Capture frequency was obtained for all five species and the density for three (individuals/100km2). The density estimated with The Mean Maximum Distance Moved (MMDM), CAPTURE, ranged from 1.2 to 2.6 for jaguars, from 1.7 to 4.3 for pumas and from 1.4 to 13.8 for ocelots. The density estimates in SPACECAP ranged from 0.7 to 3.6 for jaguars, from 1.8 to 5.2 for pumas and 2.1 to 5.1 for ocelots. Spatially explicit capture recapture (SECR) methods in SPACECAP were less likely to overestimate densities, making it a useful tool in the planning and decision making process for the conservation of these species. The Northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula maintains high populations of cats, the EEER and its surrounding areas are valuable sites for the conservation of this group of predators. Rev. Biol.

Model analysis of riparian buffer effectiveness for reducing nutrient inputs to streams in agricultural landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKane, R. B.; M, S.; F, P.; Kwiatkowski, B. L.; Rastetter, E. B.

2006-12-01

Federal and state agencies responsible for protecting water quality rely mainly on statistically-based methods to assess and manage risks to the nation's streams, lakes and estuaries. Although statistical approaches provide valuable information on current trends in water quality, process-based simulation models are essential for understanding and forecasting how changes in human activities across complex landscapes impact the transport of nutrients and contaminants to surface waters. To address this need, we developed a broadly applicable, process-based watershed simulator that links a spatially-explicit hydrologic model and a terrestrial biogeochemistry model (MEL). See Stieglitz et al. and Pan et al., this meeting, for details on the design and verification of this simulator. Here we apply the watershed simulator to a generalized agricultural setting to demonstrate its potential for informing policy and management decisions concerning water quality. This demonstration specifically explores the effectiveness of riparian buffers for reducing the transport of nitrogenous fertilizers from agricultural fields to streams. The interaction of hydrologic and biogeochemical processes represented in our simulator allows several important questions to be addressed. (1) For a range of upland fertilization rates, to what extent do riparian buffers reduce nitrogen inputs to streams? (2) How does buffer effectiveness change over time as the plant-soil system approaches N-saturation? (3) How can buffers be managed to increase their effectiveness, e.g., through periodic harvest and replanting? The model results illustrate that, while the answers to these questions depend to some extent on site factors (climatic regime, soil properties and vegetation type), in all cases riparian buffers have a limited capacity to reduce nitrogen inputs to streams where fertilization rates approach those typically used for intensive agriculture (e.g., 200 kg N per ha per year for corn in the U.S.A. Midwestern states). We also discuss how the insights gained from our approach cannot be achieved with modeling tools that are not both spatially explicit and process-based.

A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Joe Scott; Jeffrey D. Kaiden; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

2013-01-01

Spatially explicit burn probability modeling is increasingly applied to assess wildfire risk and inform mitigation strategy development. Burn probabilities are typically expressed on a per-pixel basis, calculated as the number of times a pixel burns divided by the number of simulation iterations. Spatial intersection of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) with...

Priming Facial Gender and Emotional Valence: The Influence of Spatial Frequency on Face Perception in ASD

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vanmarcke, Steven; Wagemans, Johan

2017-01-01

Adolescents with and without autism spectrum disorder (ASD) performed two priming experiments in which they implicitly processed a prime stimulus, containing high and/or low spatial frequency information, and then explicitly categorized a target face either as male/female (gender task) or as positive/negative (Valence task). Adolescents with ASD…

Spatially explicit forecasts of large wildland fire probability and suppression costs for California

Treesearch

Haiganoush Preisler; Anthony L. Westerling; Krista M. Gebert; Francisco Munoz-Arriola; Thomas P. Holmes

2011-01-01

In the last decade, increases in fire activity and suppression expenditures have caused budgetary problems for federal land management agencies. Spatial forecasts of upcoming fire activity and costs have the potential to help reduce expenditures, and increase the efficiency of suppression efforts, by enabling them to focus resources where they have the greatest effect...

Integrating ecosystem sampling, gradient modeling, remote sensing, and ecosystem simulation to create spatially explicit landscape inventories

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Matthew G. Rollins; Cecilia H. McNicoll; Russell A. Parsons

2002-01-01

Presented is a prototype of the Landscape Ecosystem Inventory System (LEIS), a system for creating maps of important landscape characteristics for natural resource planning. This system uses gradient-based field inventories coupled with gradient modeling remote sensing, ecosystem simulation, and statistical analyses to derive spatial data layers required for ecosystem...

Phenology and trend indicators derived from spatially dynamic bi-weekly satellite imagery to support ecosystem monitoring

Treesearch

Barron J. Orr; Grant M. Casady; Daniel G. Tuttle; Willem J. D. van Leeuwen; Laura E. Baker; Colleen I. McDonald; Stuart E. Marsh

2005-01-01

Ground-based ecosystem monitoring presents some practical challenges to natural resource managers and ecologists tasked with assessing vegetation dynamics across large areas through time. RangeView (http://rangeview.arizona.edu) provides online access to spatially and temporally explicit biweekly vegetation indices derived from satellite data. It also permits side-by-...

Into the environment of mosquito-borne disease: A spatial analysis of vector distribution using traditional and remotely sensed methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Heidi E.

Spatially explicit information is increasingly available for infectious disease modeling. However, such information is reluctantly or inappropriately incorporated. My dissertation research uses spatially explicit data to assess relationships between landscape and mosquito species distribution and discusses challenges regarding accurate predictive risk modeling. The goal of my research is to use remotely sensed environmental information and spatial statistical methods to better understand mosquito-borne disease epidemiology for improvement of public health responses. In addition to reviewing the progress of spatial infectious disease modeling, I present four research projects. I begin by evaluating the biases in surveillance data and build up to predictive modeling of mosquito species presence. In the first study I explore how mosquito surveillance trap types influence estimations of mosquito populations. Then. I use county-based human surveillance data and landscape variables to identify risk factors for West Nile virus disease. The third study uses satellite-based vegetation indices to identify spatial variation among West Nile virus vectors in an urban area and relates the variability to virus transmission dynamics. Finally, I explore how information from three satellite sensors of differing spatial and spectral resolution can be used to identify and distinguish mosquito habitat across central Connecticut wetlands. Analyses presented here constitute improvements to the prediction of mosquito distribution and therefore identification of disease risk factors. Current methods for mosquito surveillance data collection are labor intensive and provide an extremely limited, incomplete picture of the species composition and abundance. Human surveillance data offers additional challenges with respect to reporting bias and resolution, but is nonetheless informative in identifying environmental risk factors and disease transmission dynamics. Remotely sensed imagery supports mosquito and human disease surveillance data by providing spatially explicit, line resolution information about environmental factors relevant to vector-borne disease processes. Together, surveillance and remotely sensed environmental data facilitate improved description and modeling of disease transmission. Remote sensing can be used to develop predictive maps of mosquito distribution in relation to disease risk. This has implications for increased accuracy of mosquito control efforts. The projects presented in this dissertation enhance current public health capacities by examining the applications of spatial modeling with respect to mosquito-borne disease.

The Reliability of Teacher Decision-Making in Recommending Accommodations for Large-Scale Tests. Technical Report # 08-01

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tindal, Gerald; Lee, Daesik; Geller, Leanne Ketterlin

2008-01-01

In this paper we review different methods for teachers to recommend accommodations in large scale tests. Then we present data on the stability of their judgments on variables relevant to this decision-making process. The outcomes from the judgments support the need for a more explicit model. Four general categories are presented: student…

Health care priority setting in Norway a multicriteria decision analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Priority setting in population health is increasingly based on explicitly formulated values. The Patients Rights Act of the Norwegian tax-based health service guaranties all citizens health care in case of a severe illness, a proven health benefit, and proportionality between need and treatment. This study compares the values of the country's health policy makers with these three official principles. Methods In total 34 policy makers participated in a discrete choice experiment, weighting the relative value of six policy criteria. We used multi-variate logistic regression with selection as dependent valuable to derive odds ratios for each criterion. Next, we constructed a composite league table - based on the sum score for the probability of selection - to rank potential interventions in five major disease areas. Results The group considered cost effectiveness, large individual benefits and severity of disease as the most important criteria in decision making. Priority interventions are those related to cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases. Less attractive interventions rank those related to mental health. Conclusions Norwegian policy makers' values are in agreement with principles formulated in national health laws. Multi-criteria decision approaches may provide a tool to support explicit allocation decisions. PMID:22335815

Health care priority setting in Norway a multicriteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Defechereux, Thierry; Paolucci, Francesco; Mirelman, Andrew; Youngkong, Sitaporn; Botten, Grete; Hagen, Terje P; Niessen, Louis W

2012-02-15

Priority setting in population health is increasingly based on explicitly formulated values. The Patients Rights Act of the Norwegian tax-based health service guaranties all citizens health care in case of a severe illness, a proven health benefit, and proportionality between need and treatment. This study compares the values of the country's health policy makers with these three official principles. In total 34 policy makers participated in a discrete choice experiment, weighting the relative value of six policy criteria. We used multi-variate logistic regression with selection as dependent valuable to derive odds ratios for each criterion. Next, we constructed a composite league table - based on the sum score for the probability of selection - to rank potential interventions in five major disease areas. The group considered cost effectiveness, large individual benefits and severity of disease as the most important criteria in decision making. Priority interventions are those related to cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases. Less attractive interventions rank those related to mental health. Norwegian policy makers' values are in agreement with principles formulated in national health laws. Multi-criteria decision approaches may provide a tool to support explicit allocation decisions.

Biomass and fire dynamics in a temperate forest-grassland mosaic: Integrating multi-species herbivory, climate, and fire with the FireBGCv2/GrazeBGC system

Treesearch

Robert A. Riggs; Robert E. Keane; Norm Cimon; Rachel Cook; Lisa Holsinger; John Cook; Timothy DelCurto; L.Scott Baggett; Donald Justice; David Powell; Martin Vavra; Bridgett Naylor

2015-01-01

Landscape fire succession models (LFSMs) predict spatially-explicit interactions between vegetation succession and disturbance, but these models have yet to fully integrate ungulate herbivory as a driver of their processes. We modified a complex LFSM, FireBGCv2, to include a multi-species herbivory module, GrazeBGC. The system is novel in that it explicitly...

Sex and HIV serostatus differences in decision making under risk among substance-dependent individuals.

PubMed

Martin, Eileen; Gonzalez, Raul; Vassileva, Jasmin; Maki, Pauline M; Bechara, Antoine; Brand, Matthias

2016-01-01

HIV+ individuals with and without substance use disorders make significantly poorer decisions when information about the probability and magnitude of wins and losses is not available. We administered the Game of Dice Task, a measure of decision making under risk that provides this information explicitly, to 92 HIV+ and 134 HIV- substance-dependent men and women. HIV+ participants made significantly poorer decisions than HIV- participants, but this deficit appeared more prominent among HIV+ women. These data indicate that decision making under risk is impaired among HIV+ substance-dependent individuals (SDIs). Potential factors for the HIV+ women's relatively greater impairment are discussed.

A study on spatial decision support systems for HIV/AIDS prevention based on COM GIS technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Kun; Luo, Huasong; Peng, Shungyun; Xu, Quanli

2007-06-01

Based on the deeply analysis of the current status and the existing problems of GIS technology applications in Epidemiology, this paper has proposed the method and process for establishing the spatial decision support systems of AIDS epidemic prevention by integrating the COM GIS, Spatial Database, GPS, Remote Sensing, and Communication technologies, as well as ASP and ActiveX software development technologies. One of the most important issues for constructing the spatial decision support systems of AIDS epidemic prevention is how to integrate the AIDS spreading models with GIS. The capabilities of GIS applications in the AIDS epidemic prevention have been described here in this paper firstly. Then some mature epidemic spreading models have also been discussed for extracting the computation parameters. Furthermore, a technical schema has been proposed for integrating the AIDS spreading models with GIS and relevant geospatial technologies, in which the GIS and model running platforms share a common spatial database and the computing results can be spatially visualized on Desktop or Web GIS clients. Finally, a complete solution for establishing the decision support systems of AIDS epidemic prevention has been offered in this paper based on the model integrating methods and ESRI COM GIS software packages. The general decision support systems are composed of data acquisition sub-systems, network communication sub-systems, model integrating sub-systems, AIDS epidemic information spatial database sub-systems, AIDS epidemic information querying and statistical analysis sub-systems, AIDS epidemic dynamic surveillance sub-systems, AIDS epidemic information spatial analysis and decision support sub-systems, as well as AIDS epidemic information publishing sub-systems based on Web GIS.

Spatially-explicit models of global tree density.

PubMed

Glick, Henry B; Bettigole, Charlie; Maynard, Daniel S; Covey, Kristofer R; Smith, Jeffrey R; Crowther, Thomas W

2016-08-16

Remote sensing and geographic analysis of woody vegetation provide means of evaluating the distribution of natural resources, patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem structure, and socio-economic drivers of resource utilization. While these methods bring geographic datasets with global coverage into our day-to-day analytic spheres, many of the studies that rely on these strategies do not capitalize on the extensive collection of existing field data. We present the methods and maps associated with the first spatially-explicit models of global tree density, which relied on over 420,000 forest inventory field plots from around the world. This research is the result of a collaborative effort engaging over 20 scientists and institutions, and capitalizes on an array of analytical strategies. Our spatial data products offer precise estimates of the number of trees at global and biome scales, but should not be used for local-level estimation. At larger scales, these datasets can contribute valuable insight into resource management, ecological modelling efforts, and the quantification of ecosystem services.

Modeled historical land use and land cover for the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan R.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Dornbierer, Jordan; Wika, Steve; Quenzer, Robert; Friesz, Aaron M.

2016-01-01

The landscape of the conterminous United States has changed dramatically over the last 200 years, with agricultural land use, urban expansion, forestry, and other anthropogenic activities altering land cover across vast swaths of the country. While land use and land cover (LULC) models have been developed to model potential future LULC change, few efforts have focused on recreating historical landscapes. Researchers at the US Geological Survey have used a wide range of historical data sources and a spatially explicit modeling framework to model spatially explicit historical LULC change in the conterminous United States from 1992 back to 1938. Annual LULC maps were produced at 250-m resolution, with 14 LULC classes. Assessment of model results showed good agreement with trends and spatial patterns in historical data sources such as the Census of Agriculture and historical housing density data, although comparison with historical data is complicated by definitional and methodological differences. The completion of this dataset allows researchers to assess historical LULC impacts on a range of ecological processes.

Independent operation of implicit working memory under cognitive load.

PubMed

Ji, Eunhee; Lee, Kyung Min; Kim, Min-Shik

2017-10-01

Implicit working memory (WM) has been known to operate non-consciously and unintentionally. The current study investigated whether implicit WM is a discrete mechanism from explicit WM in terms of cognitive resource. To induce cognitive resource competition, we used a conjunction search task (Experiment 1) and imposed spatial WM load (Experiment 2a and 2b). Each trial was composed of a set of five consecutive search displays. The location of the first four displays appeared as per pre-determined patterns, but the fifth display could follow the same pattern or not. If implicit WM can extract the moving pattern of stimuli, response times for the fifth target would be faster when it followed the pattern compared to when it did not. Our results showed implicit WM can operate when participants are searching for the conjunction target and even while maintaining spatial WM information. These results suggest that implicit WM is independent from explicit spatial WM. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Land Use Change on Household Farms in the Ecuadorian Amazon: Design and Implementation of an Agent-Based Model.

PubMed

Mena, Carlos F; Walsh, Stephen J; Frizzelle, Brian G; Xiaozheng, Yao; Malanson, George P

2011-01-01

This paper describes the design and implementation of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) used to simulate land use change on household farms in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA). The ABM simulates decision-making processes at the household level that is examined through a longitudinal, socio-economic and demographic survey that was conducted in 1990 and 1999. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are used to establish spatial relationships between farms and their environment, while classified Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery is used to set initial land use/land cover conditions for the spatial simulation, assess from-to land use/land cover change patterns, and describe trajectories of land use change at the farm and landscape levels. Results from prior studies in the NEA provide insights into the key social and ecological variables, describe human behavioral functions, and examine population-environment interactions that are linked to deforestation and agricultural extensification, population migration, and demographic change. Within the architecture of the model, agents are classified as active or passive. The model comprises four modules, i.e., initialization, demography, agriculture, and migration that operate individually, but are linked through key household processes. The main outputs of the model include a spatially-explicit representation of the land use/land cover on survey and non-survey farms and at the landscape level for each annual time-step, as well as simulated socio-economic and demographic characteristics of households and communities. The work describes the design and implementation of the model and how population-environment interactions can be addressed in a frontier setting. The paper contributes to land change science by examining important pattern-process relations, advocating a spatial modeling approach that is capable of synthesizing fundamental relationships at the farm level, and links people and environment in complex ways.

Elucidating spatially explicit behavioral landscapes in the Willow Flycatcher

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bakian, Amanda V.; Sullivan, Kimberly A.; Paxton, Eben H.

2012-01-01

Animal resource selection is a complex, hierarchical decision-making process, yet resource selection studies often focus on the presence and absence of an animal rather than the animal's behavior at resource use locations. In this study, we investigate foraging and vocalization resource selection in a population of Willow Flycatchers, Empidonax traillii adastus, using Bayesian spatial generalized linear models. These models produce “behavioral landscapes” in which space use and resource selection is linked through behavior. Radio telemetry locations were collected from 35 adult Willow Flycatchers (n = 14 males, n = 13 females, and n = 8 unknown sex) over the 2003 and 2004 breeding seasons at Fish Creek, Utah. Results from the 2-stage modeling approach showed that habitat type, perch position, and distance from the arithmetic mean of the home range (in males) or nest site (in females) were important factors influencing foraging and vocalization resource selection. Parameter estimates from the individual-level models indicated high intraspecific variation in the use of the various habitat types and perch heights for foraging and vocalization. On the population level, Willow Flycatchers selected riparian habitat over other habitat types for vocalizing but used multiple habitat types for foraging including mountain shrub, young riparian, and upland forest. Mapping of observed and predicted foraging and vocalization resource selection indicated that the behavior often occurred in disparate areas of the home range. This suggests that multiple core areas may exist in the home ranges of individual flycatchers, and demonstrates that the behavioral landscape modeling approach can be applied to identify spatially and behaviorally distinct core areas. The behavioral landscape approach is applicable to a wide range of animal taxa and can be used to improve our understanding of the spatial context of behavior and resource selection.

A Metacommunity Framework for Enhancing the Effectiveness of Biological Monitoring Strategies

PubMed Central

Roque, Fabio O.; Cottenie, Karl

2012-01-01

Because of inadequate knowledge and funding, the use of biodiversity indicators is often suggested as a way to support management decisions. Consequently, many studies have analyzed the performance of certain groups as indicator taxa. However, in addition to knowing whether certain groups can adequately represent the biodiversity as a whole, we must also know whether they show similar responses to the main structuring processes affecting biodiversity. Here we present an application of the metacommunity framework for evaluating the effectiveness of biodiversity indicators. Although the metacommunity framework has contributed to a better understanding of biodiversity patterns, there is still limited discussion about its implications for conservation and biomonitoring. We evaluated the effectiveness of indicator taxa in representing spatial variation in macroinvertebrate community composition in Atlantic Forest streams, and the processes that drive this variation. We focused on analyzing whether some groups conform to environmental processes and other groups are more influenced by spatial processes, and on how this can help in deciding which indicator group or groups should be used. We showed that a relatively small subset of taxa from the metacommunity would represent 80% of the variation in community composition shown by the entire metacommunity. Moreover, this subset does not have to be composed of predetermined taxonomic groups, but rather can be defined based on random subsets. We also found that some random subsets composed of a small number of genera performed better in responding to major environmental gradients. There were also random subsets that seemed to be affected by spatial processes, which could indicate important historical processes. We were able to integrate in the same theoretical and practical framework, the selection of biodiversity surrogates, indicators of environmental conditions, and more importantly, an explicit integration of environmental and spatial processes into the selection approach. PMID:22937068

The CFL condition for spectral approximations to hyperbolic initial-boundary value problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gottlieb, David; Tadmor, Eitan

1991-01-01

The stability of spectral approximations to scalar hyperbolic initial-boundary value problems with variable coefficients are studied. Time is discretized by explicit multi-level or Runge-Kutta methods of order less than or equal to 3 (forward Euler time differencing is included), and spatial discretizations are studied by spectral and pseudospectral approximations associated with the general family of Jacobi polynomials. It is proved that these fully explicit spectral approximations are stable provided their time-step, delta t, is restricted by the CFL-like condition, delta t less than Const. N(exp-2), where N equals the spatial number of degrees of freedom. We give two independent proofs of this result, depending on two different choices of approximate L(exp 2)-weighted norms. In both approaches, the proofs hinge on a certain inverse inequality interesting for its own sake. The result confirms the commonly held belief that the above CFL stability restriction, which is extensively used in practical implementations, guarantees the stability (and hence the convergence) of fully-explicit spectral approximations in the nonperiodic case.

The CFL condition for spectral approximations to hyperbolic initial-boundary value problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gottlieb, David; Tadmor, Eitan

1990-01-01

The stability of spectral approximations to scalar hyperbolic initial-boundary value problems with variable coefficients are studied. Time is discretized by explicit multi-level or Runge-Kutta methods of order less than or equal to 3 (forward Euler time differencing is included), and spatial discretizations are studied by spectral and pseudospectral approximations associated with the general family of Jacobi polynomials. It is proved that these fully explicit spectral approximations are stable provided their time-step, delta t, is restricted by the CFL-like condition, delta t less than Const. N(exp-2), where N equals the spatial number of degrees of freedom. We give two independent proofs of this result, depending on two different choices of approximate L(exp 2)-weighted norms. In both approaches, the proofs hinge on a certain inverse inequality interesting for its own sake. The result confirms the commonly held belief that the above CFL stability restriction, which is extensively used in practical implementations, guarantees the stability (and hence the convergence) of fully-explicit spectral approximations in the nonperiodic case.

Solutions of the Taylor-Green Vortex Problem Using High-Resolution Explicit Finite Difference Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeBonis, James R.

2013-01-01

A computational fluid dynamics code that solves the compressible Navier-Stokes equations was applied to the Taylor-Green vortex problem to examine the code s ability to accurately simulate the vortex decay and subsequent turbulence. The code, WRLES (Wave Resolving Large-Eddy Simulation), uses explicit central-differencing to compute the spatial derivatives and explicit Low Dispersion Runge-Kutta methods for the temporal discretization. The flow was first studied and characterized using Bogey & Bailley s 13-point dispersion relation preserving (DRP) scheme. The kinetic energy dissipation rate, computed both directly and from the enstrophy field, vorticity contours, and the energy spectra are examined. Results are in excellent agreement with a reference solution obtained using a spectral method and provide insight into computations of turbulent flows. In addition the following studies were performed: a comparison of 4th-, 8th-, 12th- and DRP spatial differencing schemes, the effect of the solution filtering on the results, the effect of large-eddy simulation sub-grid scale models, and the effect of high-order discretization of the viscous terms.

Interaction between scene-based and array-based contextual cueing.

PubMed

Rosenbaum, Gail M; Jiang, Yuhong V

2013-07-01

Contextual cueing refers to the cueing of spatial attention by repeated spatial context. Previous studies have demonstrated distinctive properties of contextual cueing by background scenes and by an array of search items. Whereas scene-based contextual cueing reflects explicit learning of the scene-target association, array-based contextual cueing is supported primarily by implicit learning. In this study, we investigated the interaction between scene-based and array-based contextual cueing. Participants searched for a target that was predicted by both the background scene and the locations of distractor items. We tested three possible patterns of interaction: (1) The scene and the array could be learned independently, in which case cueing should be expressed even when only one cue was preserved; (2) the scene and array could be learned jointly, in which case cueing should occur only when both cues were preserved; (3) overshadowing might occur, in which case learning of the stronger cue should preclude learning of the weaker cue. In several experiments, we manipulated the nature of the contextual cues present during training and testing. We also tested explicit awareness of scenes, scene-target associations, and arrays. The results supported the overshadowing account: Specifically, scene-based contextual cueing precluded array-based contextual cueing when both were predictive of the location of a search target. We suggest that explicit, endogenous cues dominate over implicit cues in guiding spatial attention.

Conservation Action Based on Threatened Species Capture Taxonomic and Phylogenetic Richness in Breeding and Wintering Populations of Central Asian Birds

PubMed Central

Schweizer, Manuel; Ayé, Raffael; Kashkarov, Roman; Roth, Tobias

2014-01-01

Although phylogenetic diversity has been suggested to be relevant from a conservation point of view, its role is still limited in applied nature conservation. Recently, the practice of investing conservation resources based on threatened species was identified as a reason for the slow integration of phylogenetic diversity in nature conservation planning. One of the main arguments is based on the observation that threatened species are not evenly distributed over the phylogenetic tree. However this argument seems to dismiss the fact that conservation action is a spatially explicit process, and even if threatened species are not evenly distributed over the phylogenetic tree, the occurrence of threatened species could still indicate areas with above average phylogenetic diversity and consequently could protect phylogenetic diversity. Here we aim to study the selection of important bird areas in Central Asia, which were nominated largely based on the presence of threatened bird species. We show that although threatened species occurring in Central Asia do not capture phylogenetically more distinct species than expected by chance, the current spatially explicit conservation approach of selecting important bird areas covers above average taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity of breeding and wintering birds. We conclude that the spatially explicit processes of conservation actions need to be considered in the current discussion of whether new prioritization methods are needed to complement conservation action based on threatened species. PMID:25337861

Remote Sensing of Ecosystem Health: Opportunities, Challenges, and Future Perspectives

PubMed Central

Li, Zhaoqin; Xu, Dandan; Guo, Xulin

2014-01-01

Maintaining a healthy ecosystem is essential for maximizing sustainable ecological services of the best quality to human beings. Ecological and conservation research has provided a strong scientific background on identifying ecological health indicators and correspondingly making effective conservation plans. At the same time, ecologists have asserted a strong need for spatially explicit and temporally effective ecosystem health assessments based on remote sensing data. Currently, remote sensing of ecosystem health is only based on one ecosystem attribute: vigor, organization, or resilience. However, an effective ecosystem health assessment should be a comprehensive and dynamic measurement of the three attributes. This paper reviews opportunities of remote sensing, including optical, radar, and LiDAR, for directly estimating indicators of the three ecosystem attributes, discusses the main challenges to develop a remote sensing-based spatially-explicit comprehensive ecosystem health system, and provides some future perspectives. The main challenges to develop a remote sensing-based spatially-explicit comprehensive ecosystem health system are: (1) scale issue; (2) transportability issue; (3) data availability; and (4) uncertainties in health indicators estimated from remote sensing data. However, the Radarsat-2 constellation, upcoming new optical sensors on Worldview-3 and Sentinel-2 satellites, and improved technologies for the acquisition and processing of hyperspectral, multi-angle optical, radar, and LiDAR data and multi-sensoral data fusion may partly address the current challenges. PMID:25386759

Does long-term object priming depend on the explicit detection of object identity at encoding?

PubMed Central

Gomes, Carlos A.; Mayes, Andrew

2015-01-01

It is currently unclear whether objects have to be explicitly identified at encoding for reliable behavioral long-term object priming to occur. We conducted two experiments that investigated long-term object and non-object priming using a selective-attention encoding manipulation that reduces explicit object identification. In Experiment 1, participants either counted dots flashed within an object picture (shallow encoding) or engaged in an animacy task (deep encoding) at study, whereas, at test, they performed an object-decision task. Priming, as measured by reaction times (RTs), was observed for both types of encoding, and was of equivalent magnitude. In Experiment 2, non-object priming (faster RTs for studied relative to unstudied non-objects) was also obtained under the same selective-attention encoding manipulation as in Experiment 1, and the magnitude of the priming effect was equivalent between experiments. In contrast, we observed a linear decrement in recognition memory accuracy across conditions (deep encoding of Experiment 1 > shallow encoding Experiment 1 > shallow encoding of Experiment 2), suggesting that priming was not contaminated by explicit memory strategies. We argue that our results are more consistent with the identification/production framework than the perceptual/conceptual distinction, and we conclude that priming of pictures largely ignored at encoding can be subserved by the automatic retrieval of two types of instances: one at the motor level and another at an object-decision level. PMID:25852594

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

DOE PAGES

McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.; ...

2015-02-03

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

Route learning in Korsakoff's syndrome: Residual acquisition of spatial memory despite profound amnesia.

PubMed

Oudman, Erik; Van der Stigchel, Stefan; Nijboer, Tanja C W; Wijnia, Jan W; Seekles, Maaike L; Postma, Albert

2016-03-01

Korsakoff's syndrome (KS) is characterized by explicit amnesia, but relatively spared implicit memory. The aim of this study was to assess to what extent KS patients can acquire spatial information while performing a spatial navigation task. Furthermore, we examined whether residual spatial acquisition in KS was based on automatic or effortful coding processes. Therefore, 20 KS patients and 20 matched healthy controls performed six tasks on spatial navigation after they navigated through a residential area. Ten participants per group were instructed to pay close attention (intentional condition), while 10 received mock instructions (incidental condition). KS patients showed hampered performance on a majority of tasks, yet their performance was superior to chance level on a route time and distance estimation tasks, a map drawing task and a route walking task. Performance was relatively spared on the route distance estimation task, but there were large variations between participants. Acquisition in KS was automatic rather than effortful, since no significant differences were obtained between the intentional and incidental condition on any task, whereas for the healthy controls, the intention to learn was beneficial for the map drawing task and the route walking task. The results of this study suggest that KS patients are still able to acquire spatial information during navigation on multiple domains despite the presence of the explicit amnesia. Residual acquisition is most likely based on automatic coding processes. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

Beyond scene gist: Objects guide search more than scene background.

PubMed

Koehler, Kathryn; Eckstein, Miguel P

2017-06-01

Although the facilitation of visual search by contextual information is well established, there is little understanding of the independent contributions of different types of contextual cues in scenes. Here we manipulated 3 types of contextual information: object co-occurrence, multiple object configurations, and background category. We isolated the benefits of each contextual cue to target detectability, its impact on decision bias, confidence, and the guidance of eye movements. We find that object-based information guides eye movements and facilitates perceptual judgments more than scene background. The degree of guidance and facilitation of each contextual cue can be related to its inherent informativeness about the target spatial location as measured by human explicit judgments about likely target locations. Our results improve the understanding of the contributions of distinct contextual scene components to search and suggest that the brain's utilization of cues to guide eye movements is linked to the cue's informativeness about the target's location. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Modeling plug-in electric vehicle charging demand with BEAM: the framework for behavior energy autonomy mobility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sheppard, Colin; Waraich, Rashid; Campbell, Andrew

This report summarizes the BEAM modeling framework (Behavior, Energy, Mobility, and Autonomy) and its application to simulating plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) mobility, energy consumption, and spatiotemporal charging demand. BEAM is an agent-based model of PEV mobility and charging behavior designed as an extension to MATSim (the Multi-Agent Transportation Simulation model). We apply BEAM to the San Francisco Bay Area and conduct a preliminary calibration and validation of its prediction of charging load based on observed charging infrastructure utilization for the region in 2016. We then explore the impact of a variety of common modeling assumptions in the literature regarding chargingmore » infrastructure availability and driver behavior. We find that accurately reproducing observed charging patterns requires an explicit representation of spatially disaggregated charging infrastructure as well as a more nuanced model of the decision to charge that balances tradeoffs people make with regards to time, cost, convenience, and range anxiety.« less

Spatial education: improving conservation delivery through space-structured decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Clinton T.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Gannon, Jill J.

2013-01-01

Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making designed to guide management of natural resource systems when their behaviors are uncertain. Where decision making can be replicated across units of a landscape, learning can be accelerated, and biological processes can be understood in a larger spatial context. Broad-based partnerships among land management agencies, exemplified by Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (conservation partnerships created through the U.S. Department of the Interior), are potentially ideal environments for implementing spatially structured adaptive management programs.

Spatially explicit inference for open populations: estimating demographic parameters from camera-trap studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, Beth; Reppucci, Juan; Lucherini, Mauro; Royle, J. Andrew

2010-01-01

We develop a hierarchical capture–recapture model for demographically open populations when auxiliary spatial information about location of capture is obtained. Such spatial capture–recapture data arise from studies based on camera trapping, DNA sampling, and other situations in which a spatial array of devices records encounters of unique individuals. We integrate an individual-based formulation of a Jolly-Seber type model with recently developed spatially explicit capture–recapture models to estimate density and demographic parameters for survival and recruitment. We adopt a Bayesian framework for inference under this model using the method of data augmentation which is implemented in the software program WinBUGS. The model was motivated by a camera trapping study of Pampas cats Leopardus colocolo from Argentina, which we present as an illustration of the model in this paper. We provide estimates of density and the first quantitative assessment of vital rates for the Pampas cat in the High Andes. The precision of these estimates is poor due likely to the sparse data set. Unlike conventional inference methods which usually rely on asymptotic arguments, Bayesian inferences are valid in arbitrary sample sizes, and thus the method is ideal for the study of rare or endangered species for which small data sets are typical.

Landscape genomics of Sphaeralcea ambigua in the Mojave Desert: a multivariate, spatially-explicit approach to guide ecological restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shryock, Daniel F.; Havrilla, Caroline A.; DeFalco, Lesley; Esque, Todd C.; Custer, Nathan; Wood, Troy E.

2015-01-01

Local adaptation influences plant species’ responses to climate change and their performance in ecological restoration. Fine-scale physiological or phenological adaptations that direct demographic processes may drive intraspecific variability when baseline environmental conditions change. Landscape genomics characterize adaptive differentiation by identifying environmental drivers of adaptive genetic variability and mapping the associated landscape patterns. We applied such an approach to Sphaeralcea ambigua, an important restoration plant in the arid southwestern United States, by analyzing variation at 153 amplified fragment length polymorphism loci in the context of environmental gradients separating 47 Mojave Desert populations. We identified 37 potentially adaptive loci through a combination of genome scan approaches. We then used a generalized dissimilarity model (GDM) to relate variability in potentially adaptive loci with spatial gradients in temperature, precipitation, and topography. We identified non-linear thresholds in loci frequencies driven by summer maximum temperature and water stress, along with continuous variation corresponding to temperature seasonality. Two GDM-based approaches for mapping predicted patterns of local adaptation are compared. Additionally, we assess uncertainty in spatial interpolations through a novel spatial bootstrapping approach. Our study presents robust, accessible methods for deriving spatially-explicit models of adaptive genetic variability in non-model species that will inform climate change modelling and ecological restoration.

Spatially explicit inference for open populations: estimating demographic parameters from camera-trap studies.

PubMed

Gardner, Beth; Reppucci, Juan; Lucherini, Mauro; Royle, J Andrew

2010-11-01

We develop a hierarchical capture-recapture model for demographically open populations when auxiliary spatial information about location of capture is obtained. Such spatial capture-recapture data arise from studies based on camera trapping, DNA sampling, and other situations in which a spatial array of devices records encounters of unique individuals. We integrate an individual-based formulation of a Jolly-Seber type model with recently developed spatially explicit capture-recapture models to estimate density and demographic parameters for survival and recruitment. We adopt a Bayesian framework for inference under this model using the method of data augmentation which is implemented in the software program WinBUGS. The model was motivated by a camera trapping study of Pampas cats Leopardus colocolo from Argentina, which we present as an illustration of the model in this paper. We provide estimates of density and the first quantitative assessment of vital rates for the Pampas cat in the High Andes. The precision of these estimates is poor due likely to the sparse data set. Unlike conventional inference methods which usually rely on asymptotic arguments, Bayesian inferences are valid in arbitrary sample sizes, and thus the method is ideal for the study of rare or endangered species for which small data sets are typical.

Geomorphology Drives Amphibian Beta Diversity in Atlantic Forest Lowlands of Southeastern Brazil

PubMed Central

Luiz, Amom Mendes; Leão-Pires, Thiago Augusto; Sawaya, Ricardo J.

2016-01-01

Beta diversity patterns are the outcome of multiple processes operating at different scales. Amphibian assemblages seem to be affected by contemporary climate and dispersal-based processes. However, historical processes involved in present patterns of beta diversity remain poorly understood. We assess and disentangle geomorphological, climatic and spatial drivers of amphibian beta diversity in coastal lowlands of the Atlantic Forest, southeastern Brazil. We tested the hypothesis that geomorphological factors are more important in structuring anuran beta diversity than climatic and spatial factors. We obtained species composition via field survey (N = 766 individuals), museum specimens (N = 9,730) and literature records (N = 4,763). Sampling area was divided in four spatially explicit geomorphological units, representing historical predictors. Climatic descriptors were represented by the first two axis of a Principal Component Analysis. Spatial predictors in different spatial scales were described by Moran Eigenvector Maps. Redundancy Analysis was implemented to partition the explained variation of species composition by geomorphological, climatic and spatial predictors. Moreover, spatial autocorrelation analyses were used to test neutral theory predictions. Beta diversity was spatially structured in broader scales. Shared fraction between climatic and geomorphological variables was an important predictor of species composition (13%), as well as broad scale spatial predictors (13%). However, geomorphological variables alone were the most important predictor of beta diversity (42%). Historical factors related to geomorphology must have played a crucial role in structuring amphibian beta diversity. The complex relationships between geomorphological history and climatic gradients generated by the Serra do Mar Precambrian basements were also important. We highlight the importance of combining spatially explicit historical and contemporary predictors for understanding and disentangling major drivers of beta diversity patterns. PMID:27171522

Geomorphology Drives Amphibian Beta Diversity in Atlantic Forest Lowlands of Southeastern Brazil.

PubMed

Luiz, Amom Mendes; Leão-Pires, Thiago Augusto; Sawaya, Ricardo J

2016-01-01

Beta diversity patterns are the outcome of multiple processes operating at different scales. Amphibian assemblages seem to be affected by contemporary climate and dispersal-based processes. However, historical processes involved in present patterns of beta diversity remain poorly understood. We assess and disentangle geomorphological, climatic and spatial drivers of amphibian beta diversity in coastal lowlands of the Atlantic Forest, southeastern Brazil. We tested the hypothesis that geomorphological factors are more important in structuring anuran beta diversity than climatic and spatial factors. We obtained species composition via field survey (N = 766 individuals), museum specimens (N = 9,730) and literature records (N = 4,763). Sampling area was divided in four spatially explicit geomorphological units, representing historical predictors. Climatic descriptors were represented by the first two axis of a Principal Component Analysis. Spatial predictors in different spatial scales were described by Moran Eigenvector Maps. Redundancy Analysis was implemented to partition the explained variation of species composition by geomorphological, climatic and spatial predictors. Moreover, spatial autocorrelation analyses were used to test neutral theory predictions. Beta diversity was spatially structured in broader scales. Shared fraction between climatic and geomorphological variables was an important predictor of species composition (13%), as well as broad scale spatial predictors (13%). However, geomorphological variables alone were the most important predictor of beta diversity (42%). Historical factors related to geomorphology must have played a crucial role in structuring amphibian beta diversity. The complex relationships between geomorphological history and climatic gradients generated by the Serra do Mar Precambrian basements were also important. We highlight the importance of combining spatially explicit historical and contemporary predictors for understanding and disentangling major drivers of beta diversity patterns.

Analysis of Extreme Snow Water Equivalent Data in Central New Hampshire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuyovich, C.; Skahill, B. E.; Kanney, J. F.; Carr, M.

2017-12-01

Heavy snowfall and snowmelt-related events have been linked to widespread flooding and damages in many regions of the U.S. Design of critical infrastructure in these regions requires spatial estimates of extreme snow water equivalent (SWE). In this study, we develop station specific and spatially explicit estimates of extreme SWE using data from fifteen snow sampling stations maintained by the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services. The stations are located in the Mascoma, Pemigewasset, Winnipesaukee, Ossipee, Salmon Falls, Lamprey, Sugar, and Isinglass basins in New Hampshire. The average record length for the fifteen stations is approximately fifty-nine years. The spatial analysis of extreme SWE involves application of two Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling methods, one that assumes conditional independence, and another which uses the Smith max-stable process model to account for spatial dependence. We also apply additional max-stable process models, albeit not in a Bayesian framework, that better model the observed dependence among the extreme SWE data. The spatial process modeling leverages readily available and relevant spatially explicit covariate data. The noted additional max-stable process models also used the nonstationary winter North Atlantic Oscillation index, which has been observed to influence snowy weather along the east coast of the United States. We find that, for this data set, SWE return level estimates are consistently higher when derived using methods which account for the observed spatial dependence among the extreme data. This is particularly significant for design scenarios of relevance for critical infrastructure evaluation.

Are baboons learning "orthographic" representations? Probably not

PubMed Central

Bröker, Franziska; Ramscar, Michael; Baayen, Harald

2017-01-01

The ability of Baboons (papio papio) to distinguish between English words and nonwords has been modeled using a deep learning convolutional network model that simulates a ventral pathway in which lexical representations of different granularity develop. However, given that pigeons (columba livia), whose brain morphology is drastically different, can also be trained to distinguish between English words and nonwords, it appears that a less species-specific learning algorithm may be required to explain this behavior. Accordingly, we examined whether the learning model of Rescorla and Wagner, which has proved to be amazingly fruitful in understanding animal and human learning could account for these data. We show that a discrimination learning network using gradient orientation features as input units and word and nonword units as outputs succeeds in predicting baboon lexical decision behavior—including key lexical similarity effects and the ups and downs in accuracy as learning unfolds—with surprising precision. The models performance, in which words are not explicitly represented, is remarkable because it is usually assumed that lexicality decisions, including the decisions made by baboons and pigeons, are mediated by explicit lexical representations. By contrast, our results suggest that in learning to perform lexical decision tasks, baboons and pigeons do not construct a hierarchy of lexical units. Rather, they make optimal use of low-level information obtained through the massively parallel processing of gradient orientation features. Accordingly, we suggest that reading in humans first involves initially learning a high-level system building on letter representations acquired from explicit instruction in literacy, which is then integrated into a conventionalized oral communication system, and that like the latter, fluent reading involves the massively parallel processing of the low-level features encoding semantic contrasts. PMID:28859134