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Sample records for spatially explicit metapopulations

  1. ANOSPEX: A Stochastic, Spatially Explicit Model for Studying Anopheles Metapopulation Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Oluwagbemi, Olugbenga O.; Fornadel, Christen M.; Adebiyi, Ezekiel F.; Norris, Douglas E.; Rasgon, Jason L.

    2013-01-01

    Anopheles mosquitoes transmit malaria, a major public health problem among many African countries. One of the most effective methods to control malaria is by controlling the Anopheles mosquito vectors that transmit the parasites. Mathematical models have both predictive and explorative utility to investigate the pros and cons of different malaria control strategies. We have developed a C++ based, stochastic spatially explicit model (ANOSPEX; AnophelesSpatially-Explicit) to simulate Anopheles metapopulation dynamics. The model is biologically rich, parameterized by field data, and driven by field-collected weather data from Macha, Zambia. To preliminarily validate ANOSPEX, simulation results were compared to field mosquito collection data from Macha; simulated and observed dynamics were similar. The ANOSPEX model will be useful in a predictive and exploratory manner to develop, evaluate and implement traditional and novel strategies to control malaria, and for understanding the environmental forces driving Anopheles population dynamics. PMID:23861847

  2. Generalizing Levins metapopulation model in explicit space: models of intermediate complexity.

    PubMed

    Roy, Manojit; Harding, Karin; Holt, Robert D

    2008-11-07

    A recent study [Harding and McNamara, 2002. A unifying framework for metapopulation dynamics. Am. Nat. 160, 173-185] presented a unifying framework for the classic Levins metapopulation model by incorporating several realistic biological processes, such as the Allee effect, the Rescue effect and the Anti-rescue effect, via appropriate modifications of the two basic functions of colonization and extinction rates. Here we embed these model extensions on a spatially explicit framework. We consider population dynamics on a regular grid, each site of which represents a patch that is either occupied or empty, and with spatial coupling by neighborhood dispersal. While broad qualitative similarities exist between the spatially explicit models and their spatially implicit (mean-field) counterparts, there are also important differences that result from the details of local processes. Because of localized dispersal, spatial correlation develops among the dynamics of neighboring populations that decays with distance between patches. The extent of this correlation at equilibrium differs among the metapopulation types, depending on which processes prevail in the colonization and extinction dynamics. These differences among dynamical processes become manifest in the spatial pattern and distribution of "clusters" of occupied patches. Moreover, metapopulation dynamics along a smooth gradient of habitat availability show significant differences in the spatial pattern at the range limit. The relevance of these results to the dynamics of disease spread in metapopulations is discussed.

  3. Dynamics of Adaptation in Spatially Heterogeneous Metapopulations

    PubMed Central

    Papaïx, Julien; David, Olivier; Lannou, Christian; Monod, Hervé

    2013-01-01

    The selection pressure experienced by organisms often varies across the species range. It is hence crucial to characterise the link between environmental spatial heterogeneity and the adaptive dynamics of species or populations. We address this issue by studying the phenotypic evolution of a spatial metapopulation using an adaptive dynamics approach. The singular strategy is found to be the mean of the optimal phenotypes in each habitat with larger weights for habitats present in large and well connected patches. The presence of spatial clusters of habitats in the metapopulation is found to facilitate specialisation and to increase both the level of adaptation and the evolutionary speed of the population when dispersal is limited. By showing that spatial structures are crucial in determining the specialisation level and the evolutionary speed of a population, our results give insight into the influence of spatial heterogeneity on the niche breadth of species. PMID:23424618

  4. A spatially explicit metapopulation model and cattle trade analysis suggests key determinants for the recurrent circulation of rift valley Fever virus in a pilot area of madagascar highlands.

    PubMed

    Nicolas, Gaëlle; Chevalier, Véronique; Tantely, Luciano Michaël; Fontenille, Didier; Durand, Benoît

    2014-12-01

    Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne zoonotic disease that causes high morbidity and mortality in ruminants. In 2008-2009, a RVF outbreak affected the whole Madagascar island, including the Anjozorobe district located in Madagascar highlands. An entomological survey showed the absence of Aedes among the potential RVF virus (RVFV) vector species identified in this area, and an overall low abundance of mosquitoes due to unfavorable climatic conditions during winter. No serological nor virological sign of infection was observed in wild terrestrial mammals of the area, suggesting an absence of wild RVF virus (RVFV) reservoir. However, a three years serological and virological follow-up in cattle showed a recurrent RVFV circulation. The objective of this study was to understand the key determinants of this unexpected recurrent transmission. To achieve this goal, a spatial deterministic discrete-time metapopulation model combined with cattle trade network was designed and parameterized to reproduce the local conditions using observational data collected in the area. Three scenarios that could explain the RVFV recurrent circulation in the area were analyzed: (i) RVFV overwintering thanks to a direct transmission between cattle when viraemic cows calve, vectors being absent during the winter, (ii) a low level vector-based circulation during winter thanks to a residual vector population, without direct transmission between cattle, (iii) combination of both above mentioned mechanisms. Multi-model inference methods resulted in a model incorporating both a low level RVFV winter vector-borne transmission and a direct transmission between animals when viraemic cows calve. Predictions satisfactorily reproduced field observations, 84% of cattle infections being attributed to vector-borne transmission, and 16% to direct transmission. These results appeared robust according to the sensitivity analysis. Interweaving between agricultural works in rice fields, seasonality of

  5. Metapopulation dynamics and spatial heterogeneity in cancer.

    PubMed

    González-García, Isabel; Solé, Ricard V; Costa, José

    2002-10-01

    With the advent of drugs targeting specific molecular defects in cancerous cells [Gorre, M. E., et al. (2001) Science 293, 876-880], it is important to understand the degree of genetic heterogeneity present in tumor cell populations and the rules that govern microdiversity in human cancer. Here, we first show that populations with different genotypes in genes influencing cell growth and programmed cell death coexist in advanced malignant tumors of the colon, exhibiting microsatellite instability. Detailed, physical mapping of the diverse populations shows them to be arranged in small, intermingling areas, resulting in a variegated pattern of diversity. Using computational modeling of the experimental data, we find that the coexistence between similar competitors is enhanced, instead of deterred, by spatial dynamics [Hanski, I. (1999) Metapopulation Dynamics (Oxford Univ. Press, New York)]. The model suggests a simple and plausible scenario for the generation of spatial heterogeneity during tumor progression. The emergence and persistence of the patterns of diversity encountered in the tumors can be generated without a need to invoke differences in mutation rates, neutrality of interactions, or separated time scales. We posit that the rules that apply to spatial ecology and explain the maintenance of diversity are also at work in tumors and may underlie tumor microheterogeneity.

  6. Spatial variation in disease resistance: from molecules to metapopulations

    PubMed Central

    Laine, Anna-Liisa; Burdon, Jeremy J.; Dodds, Peter N.; Thrall, Peter H.

    2010-01-01

    Summary Variation in disease resistance is a widespread phenomenon in wild plant-pathogen associations. Here, we review current literature on natural plant-pathogen associations to determine how diversity in disease resistance is distributed at different hierarchical levels – within host individuals, within host populations, among host populations at the metapopulation scale and at larger regional scales. We find diversity in resistance across all spatial scales examined. Furthermore, variability seems to be the best counter-defence of plants against their rapidly evolving pathogens. We find that higher diversity of resistance phenotypes also results in higher levels of resistance at the population level. Overall, we find that wild plant populations are more likely to be susceptible than resistant to their pathogens. However, the degree of resistance differs strikingly depending on the origin of the pathogen strains used in experimental inoculation studies. Plant populations are on average 16% more resistant to allopatric pathogen strains than they are to strains that occur within the same population (48 % vs. 32 % respectively). Pathogen dispersal mode affects levels of resistance in natural plant populations with lowest levels detected for hosts of airborne pathogens and highest for waterborne pathogens. Detailed analysis of two model systems, Linum marginale infected by Melampsora lini, and Plantago lanceolata infected by Podosphaera plantaginis, show that the amount of variation in disease resistance declines towards higher spatial scales as we move from individual hosts to metapopulations, but evaluation of multiple spatial scales is needed to fully capture the structure of disease resistance. Synthesis: Variation in disease resistance is ubiquitous in wild plant-pathogen associations. While the debate over whether the resistance structure of plant populations is determined by pathogen-imposed selection versus non-adaptive processes remains unresolved, we do

  7. Human influence on the spatial structure of threatened Pacific salmon metapopulations.

    PubMed

    Fullerton, Aimee H; Lindley, Steven T; Pess, George R; Feist, Blake E; Steel, E Ashley; McElhany, Paul

    2011-10-01

    To remain viable, populations must be resilient to both natural and human-caused environmental changes. We evaluated anthropogenic effects on spatial connections among populations of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) (designated as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act) in the lower Columbia and Willamette rivers. For several anthropogenic-effects scenarios, we used graph theory to characterize the spatial relation among populations. We plotted variance in population size against connectivity among populations. In our scenarios, reduced habitat quality decreased the size of populations and hydropower dams on rivers led to the extirpation of several populations, both of which decreased connectivity. Operation of fish hatcheries increased connectivity among populations and led to patchy or panmictic populations. On the basis of our results, we believe recolonization of the upper Cowlitz River by fall and spring Chinook and winter steelhead would best restore metapopulation structure to near-historical conditions. Extant populations that would best conserve connectivity would be those inhabiting the Molalla (spring Chinook), lower Cowlitz, or Clackamas (fall Chinook) rivers and the south Santiam (winter steelhead) and north fork Lewis rivers (summer steelhead). Populations in these rivers were putative sources; however, they were not always the most abundant or centrally located populations. This result would not have been obvious if we had not considered relations among populations in a metapopulation context. Our results suggest that dispersal rate strongly controls interactions among the populations that comprise salmon metapopulations. Thus, monitoring efforts could lead to understanding of the true rates at which wild and hatchery fish disperse. Our application of graph theory allowed us to visualize how metapopulation structure might respond to human activity. The method could be easily extended to evaluations of

  8. Introducing stage-specific spatial distribution into the Levins metapopulation model

    PubMed Central

    Nakazawa, Takefumi

    2015-01-01

    The Levins model is a classical but still widely used metapopulation model that describes temporal changes in the regional abundance of a species by extinction and colonization of subpopulations. A fundamental assumption of the model is that the landscape is homogeneous and the species moves between identical patches at random. However, this assumption clearly contrasts with the common observation that different stages prefer or require different habitat types. Here I studied a minimum extension of the Levins model in which the species has stage-specific (juvenile and adult) spatial distributions and dispersal occurs at the timing of reproduction and maturation (i.e., ontogenetic habitat shifts). I examined how the persistence of the stage-structured metapopulations would be affected by rescue effect and interspecific competition. The models predict that rates of ontogenetic habitat shifts are particularly crucial for the persistence or coexistence of stage-structured metapopulations because the species need to complete biphasic life cycles. The present study opens a new avenue for exploring stage- and space-structured population dynamics and will contribute to better landscape management for the conservation of stage-structured animals. PMID:25598411

  9. Spatially explicit analyses unveil density dependence.

    PubMed Central

    Veldtman, Ruan; McGeoch, Melodie A.

    2004-01-01

    Density-dependent processes are fundamental in the understanding of species population dynamics. Whereas the benefits of considering the spatial dimension in population biology are widely acknowledged, the implications of doing so for the statistical detection of spatial density dependence have not been examined. The outcome of traditional tests may therefore differ from those that include ecologically relevant locational information on both the prey species and natural enemy. Here, we explicitly incorporate spatial information on individual counts when testing for density dependence between an insect herbivore and its parasitoids. The spatially explicit approach used identified significant density dependence more frequently and in different instances than traditional methods. The form of density dependence detected also differed between methods. These results demonstrate that the explicit consideration of patch location in density-dependence analyses is likely to significantly alter current understanding of the prevalence and form of spatial density dependence in natural populations. PMID:15590593

  10. Spatial variation in senescence rates in a bird metapopulation.

    PubMed

    Holand, H; Kvalnes, T; Gamelon, M; Tufto, J; Jensen, H; Pärn, H; Ringsby, T H; Sæther, B-E

    2016-07-01

    Investigating factors which affect the decline in survival with age, i.e. actuarial senescence, is important in order to understand how demographic rates vary in wild populations. Although the evidence for the occurrence of actuarial senescence in wild populations is growing, very few studies have compared actuarial senescence rates between wild populations of the same species. We used data from a long-time study of demography of house sparrows (Passer domesticus) to investigate differences in rates of actuarial senescence between habitats and sub-populations. We also investigated whether rates of actuarial senescence differed between males and females. We found that rates of actuarial senescence showed large spatial variation. We also found that the onset of actuarial senescence varied between sub-populations. However, these differences were not significantly explained by a general difference in habitat type. We also found no significant difference in actuarial senescence rates between males and females. This study shows that senescence rates in natural populations may vary significantly between sub-populations and that failing to account for such differences may give a biased estimate of senescence rates of a species.

  11. Uncertainty in spatially explicit animal dispersal models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mooij, Wolf M.; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2003-01-01

    Uncertainty in estimates of survival of dispersing animals is a vexing difficulty in conservation biology. The current notion is that this uncertainty decreases the usefulness of spatially explicit population models in particular. We examined this problem by comparing dispersal models of three levels of complexity: (1) an event-based binomial model that considers only the occurrence of mortality or arrival, (2) a temporally explicit exponential model that employs mortality and arrival rates, and (3) a spatially explicit grid-walk model that simulates the movement of animals through an artificial landscape. Each model was fitted to the same set of field data. A first objective of the paper is to illustrate how the maximum-likelihood method can be used in all three cases to estimate the means and confidence limits for the relevant model parameters, given a particular set of data on dispersal survival. Using this framework we show that the structure of the uncertainty for all three models is strikingly similar. In fact, the results of our unified approach imply that spatially explicit dispersal models, which take advantage of information on landscape details, suffer less from uncertainly than do simpler models. Moreover, we show that the proposed strategy of model development safeguards one from error propagation in these more complex models. Finally, our approach shows that all models related to animal dispersal, ranging from simple to complex, can be related in a hierarchical fashion, so that the various approaches to modeling such dispersal can be viewed from a unified perspective.

  12. Spatially explicit modeling in ecology: A review

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeAngelis, Donald L.; Yurek, Simeon

    2017-01-01

    The use of spatially explicit models (SEMs) in ecology has grown enormously in the past two decades. One major advancement has been that fine-scale details of landscapes, and of spatially dependent biological processes, such as dispersal and invasion, can now be simulated with great precision, due to improvements in computer technology. Many areas of modeling have shifted toward a focus on capturing these fine-scale details, to improve mechanistic understanding of ecosystems. However, spatially implicit models (SIMs) have played a dominant role in ecology, and arguments have been made that SIMs, which account for the effects of space without specifying spatial positions, have an advantage of being simpler and more broadly applicable, perhaps contributing more to understanding. We address this debate by comparing SEMs and SIMs in examples from the past few decades of modeling research. We argue that, although SIMs have been the dominant approach in the incorporation of space in theoretical ecology, SEMs have unique advantages for addressing pragmatic questions concerning species populations or communities in specific places, because local conditions, such as spatial heterogeneities, organism behaviors, and other contingencies, produce dynamics and patterns that usually cannot be incorporated into simpler SIMs. SEMs are also able to describe mechanisms at the local scale that can create amplifying positive feedbacks at that scale, creating emergent patterns at larger scales, and therefore are important to basic ecological theory. We review the use of SEMs at the level of populations, interacting populations, food webs, and ecosystems and argue that SEMs are not only essential in pragmatic issues, but must play a role in the understanding of causal relationships on landscapes.

  13. Spatially explicit modelling of cholera epidemics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finger, F.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Knox, A. C.; Gatto, M.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-12-01

    Epidemiological models can provide crucial understanding about the dynamics of infectious diseases. Possible applications range from real-time forecasting and allocation of health care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. We apply a spatially explicit model to the cholera epidemic that struck Haiti in October 2010 and is still ongoing. The dynamics of susceptibles as well as symptomatic and asymptomatic infectives are modelled at the scale of local human communities. Dissemination of Vibrio cholerae through hydrological transport and human mobility along the road network is explicitly taken into account, as well as the effect of rainfall as a driver of increasing disease incidence. The model is calibrated using a dataset of reported cholera cases. We further model the long term impact of several types of interventions on the disease dynamics by varying parameters appropriately. Key epidemiological mechanisms and parameters which affect the efficiency of treatments such as antibiotics are identified. Our results lead to conclusions about the influence of different intervention strategies on the overall epidemiological dynamics.

  14. Cluster formation in a heterogeneous metapopulation model.

    PubMed

    Silva, Jacques A L

    2016-05-01

    A spatially explicit heterogeneous metapopulation model with two different patch types is analyzed. Some network topologies support a partially synchronized dynamics, a state where two different clusters of patches are formed. Within each cluster the dynamics of all patches are synchronized. The linearized asymptotic stability of the partially synchronized attractor is studied. The transversal stability is analyzed and a simple expression for the transversal Lyapunov number of partially synchronized attractors is obtained.

  15. Applying metapopulation theory to conservation of migratory birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Esler, Daniel N.

    2000-01-01

    Metapopulation theory has proven useful for understanding the population structure and dynamics of many species of conservation concern. The metapopulation concept has been applied almost exclusively to nonmigratory species, however, for which subpopulation demographic independence—a requirement for a classically defined metapopulation - is explicitly related to geographic distribution and dispersal probabilities. Defining the degree of demographic independence among subpopulations of migratory animals, and thus the applicability of metapopulation theory as a conceptual framework for understanding population dynamics, is much more difficult. Unlike nonmigratory species, subpopulations of migratory animals cannot be defined as synonymous with geographic areas. Groups of migratory birds that are geographically separate at one part of the annual cycle may occur together at others, but co-occurrence in time and space does not preclude the demographic independence of subpopulations. I suggest that metapopulation theory can be applied to migratory species but that understanding the degree of subpopulation independence may require information about both spatial distribution throughout the annual cycle and behavioral mechanisms that may lead to subpopulation demographic independence. The key for applying metapopulation theory to migratory animals lies in identifying demographically independent subpopulations, even as they move during the annual cycle and potentially co-occur with other subpopulations. Using examples of migratory bird species, I demonstrate that spatial and temporal modes of subpopulation independence can interact with behavioral mechanisms to create demographically independent subpopulations, including cases in which subpopulations are not spatially distinct in some parts of the annual cycle.

  16. Identifying critical regions in small-world marine metapopulations.

    PubMed

    Watson, James R; Siegel, David A; Kendall, Bruce E; Mitarai, Satoshi; Rassweiller, Andrew; Gaines, Steven D

    2011-10-25

    The precarious state of many nearshore marine ecosystems has prompted the use of marine protected areas as a tool for management and conservation. However, there remains substantial debate over their design and, in particular, how to best account for the spatial dynamics of nearshore marine species. Many commercially important nearshore marine species are sedentary as adults, with limited home ranges. It is as larvae that they disperse greater distances, traveling with ocean currents sometimes hundreds of kilometers. As a result, these species exist in spatially complex systems of connected subpopulations. Here, we explicitly account for the mutual dependence of subpopulations and approach protected area design in terms of network robustness. Our goal is to characterize the topology of nearshore metapopulation networks and their response to perturbation, and to identify critical subpopulations whose protection would reduce the risk for stock collapse. We define metapopulation networks using realistic estimates of larval dispersal generated from ocean circulation simulations and spatially explicit metapopulation models, and we then explore their robustness using node-removal simulation experiments. Nearshore metapopulations show small-world network properties, and we identify a set of highly connected hub subpopulations whose removal maximally disrupts the metapopulation network. Protecting these subpopulations reduces the risk for systemic failure and stock collapse. Our focus on catastrophe avoidance provides a unique perspective for spatial marine planning and the design of marine protected areas.

  17. Individual genetic diversity correlates with the size and spatial isolation of natal colonies in a bird metapopulation

    PubMed Central

    Ortego, Joaquín; Aparicio, José Miguel; Cordero, Pedro J; Calabuig, Gustau

    2008-01-01

    The genetic consequences of small population size and isolation are of central concern in both population and conservation biology. Organisms with a metapopulation structure generally show effective population sizes that are much smaller than the number of mature individuals and this can reduce genetic diversity especially in small sized and isolated subpopulations. Here, we examine the association between heterozygosity and the size and spatial isolation of natal colonies in a metapopulation of lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni). For this purpose, we used capture–mark–recapture data to determine the patterns of immigration into the studied colonies, and 11 highly polymorphic microsatellite markers that allowed us to estimate genetic diversity of locally born individuals. We found that individuals born in smaller and more isolated colonies were genetically less diverse. These colonies received a lower number of immigrants, supporting the idea that both reduced gene flow and small population size are responsible for the genetic pattern observed. Our results are particularly intriguing because the lesser kestrel is a vagile and migratory species with great movement capacity and dispersal potential. Overall, this study provides evidence of the association between individual heterozygosity and the size and spatial isolation of natal colonies in a highly mobile vertebrate showing relatively frequent dispersal and low genetic differentiation among local subpopulations. PMID:18505717

  18. Networks in metapopulation dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vuorinen, V.; Peltomäki, M.; Rost, M.; Alava, M. J.

    2004-03-01

    The behavior of spatially inhomogeneous populations in networks of habitats provides examples of dynamical systems on random graphs with structure. A particular example is a butterfly species inhabiting the Åland archipelago. A metapopulation description of the patch occupancies is here mapped to a quenched graph, using the empirical ecology-based incidence function description as a starting point. Such graphs are shown to have interesting features that both reflect the probably “self-organized” nature of a metapopulation that can survive and the geographical details of the landscape. Simulations of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model, to mimick the time-dependent population dynamics relate to the graph features: lack of a typical scale, large connectivity per vertex, and the existence of independent subgraphs. Finally, ideas related to the application and extension of scale-free graphs to metapopulations are discussed.

  19. Influence of local demography on asymptotic and transient dynamics of a yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation.

    PubMed

    Ozgul, Arpat; Oli, Madan K; Armitage, Kenneth B; Blumstein, Daniel T; Van Vuren, Dirk H

    2009-04-01

    Despite recent advances in biodemography and metapopulation ecology, we still have limited understanding of how local demographic parameters influence short- and long-term metapopulation dynamics. We used long-term data from 17 local populations, along with the recently developed methods of matrix metapopulation modeling and transient sensitivity analysis, to investigate the influence of local demography on long-term (asymptotic) versus short-term (transient) dynamics of a yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation in Colorado. Both long- and short-term dynamics depended primarily on a few colony sites and were highly sensitive to changes in demography at these sites, particularly in survival of reproductive adult females. Interestingly, the relative importance of sites differed between long- and short-term dynamics; the spatial structure and local population sizes, while insignificant for asymptotic dynamics, were influential on transient dynamics. However, considering the spatial structure was uninformative about the relative influence of local demography on metapopulation dynamics. The vital rates that were the most influential on local dynamics were also the most influential on both long- and short-term metapopulation dynamics. Our results show that an explicit consideration of local demography is essential for a complete understanding of the dynamics and persistence of spatially structured populations.

  20. Landscape equivalency analysis: methodology for estimating spatially explicit biodiversity credits.

    PubMed

    Bruggeman, Douglas J; Jones, Michael L; Lupi, Frank; Scribner, Kim T

    2005-10-01

    We propose a biodiversity credit system for trading endangered species habitat designed to minimize and reverse the negative effects of habitat loss and fragmentation, the leading cause of species endangerment in the United States. Given the increasing demand for land, approaches that explicitly balance economic goals against conservation goals are required. The Endangered Species Act balances these conflicts based on the cost to replace habitat. Conservation banking is a means to manage this balance, and we argue for its use to mitigate the effects of habitat fragmentation. Mitigating the effects of land development on biodiversity requires decisions that recognize regional ecological effects resulting from local economic decisions. We propose Landscape Equivalency Analysis (LEA), a landscape-scale approach similar to HEA, as an accounting system to calculate conservation banking credits so that habitat trades do not exacerbate regional ecological effects of local decisions. Credits purchased by public agencies or NGOs for purposes other than mitigating a take create a net investment in natural capital leading to habitat defragmentation. Credits calculated by LEA use metapopulation genetic theory to estimate sustainability criteria against which all trades are judged. The approach is rooted in well-accepted ecological, evolutionary, and economic theory, which helps compensate for the degree of uncertainty regarding the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on endangered species. LEA requires application of greater scientific rigor than typically applied to endangered species management on private lands but provides an objective, conceptually sound basis for achieving the often conflicting goals of economic efficiency and long-term ecological sustainability.

  1. Enhancing the area-isolation paradigm: habitat heterogeneity and metapopulation dynamics of a rare wetland mammal.

    PubMed

    Schooley, Robert L; Branch, Lyn C

    2009-10-01

    Conservation of species in fragmented landscapes often is guided by spatially realistic metapopulation theory. However, convincing cases of metapopulation dynamics are uncommon, especially for vertebrates. Moreover, there is concern that the patch area and isolation paradigm for metapopulations is an oversimplification for heterogeneous landscapes. We tested predictions from metapopulation theory for a rare wetland mammal (round-tailed muskrat, Neofiber alleni) and asked whether it was necessary to use a habitat-informed version of the area-isolation paradigm that included patch quality and matrix heterogeneity. In each of two years, we surveyed 457 isolated wetlands in central Florida, USA, for presence-absence of Neofiber and evaluated logistic regression models of patch occupancy, extinction, and colonization. We documented metapopulation dynamics in which patch occupancy was constant between years (26% of patches occupied) due to balanced local extinctions (n = 45) and recolonizations (n = 46). Neofiber was both habitat and dispersal limited. Local extinctions were related negatively to patch area, patch quality (cover of maidencane grass, Panicum hemitomon), and distance to nearest roadside ditch. Patch colonization depended on patch area, patch quality, and spatial connectivity to potential source wetlands. Despite the importance of patch quality, Neofiber did not exhibit a habitat-tracking metapopulation on an annual time scale. Cost-distance modeling suggested effective distances that included high costs for moving through forested matrix habitats generally were better than Euclidean distances for predicting patch colonization and occupancy. Two dominant land uses were tied to turnover dynamics: cattle grazing decreased habitat quality of wetlands, and presence of pine (Pinus spp.) plantations decreased functional connectivity. The simple area-isolation paradigm was not adequate for characterizing spatial dynamics of the Neofiber metapopulation

  2. Ecological and evolutionary consequences of explicit spatial structure in exploiter-victim systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klopfer, Eric David

    One class of spatial model which has been widely used in ecology has been termed "pseudo-spatial models" and classically employs various types of aggregation in studying the coexistence of competing parasitoids. Yet, little is known about the relative effects of each of these aggregation behaviors. Thus, in Chapter 1 I chose to examine three types of aggregation and explore their relative strengths in promoting coexistence of two competing parasitoids. A striking shortcoming of spatial models in ecology to date is that there is a relative lack of use of spatial models to investigate problems on the evolutionary as opposed to ecological time scale. Consequently, in Chapter 2 I chose to start with a classic problem of evolutionary time scale--the evolution of virulence and predation rates. Debate about this problem has continued through several decades, yet many instances are not adequately explained by current models. In this study I explored the effect of explicit spatial structure on exploitation rates by comparing a cellular automata (CA) exploiter-victim model which incorporates local dynamics to a metapopulation model which does not include such dynamics. One advantage of CA models is that they are defined by simple rules rather than the often complex equations of other types of spatial models. This is an extremely useful attribute when one wants to convey results of models to an audience with an applied bent that is often uncomfortable with hard-to-understand equations. Thus, in Chapter 3, through the use of CA models I show that there are spatial phenomena which alter the impact of introduced predators and that these phenomena are potentially important in the implementation of biocontrol programs. The relatively recent incorporation of spatial models into the ecological literature has left most ecologists and evolutionary biologists without the ability to understand, let alone employ, spatial models in evolutionary problems. In order to give the next

  3. Maximum sustainable yields from a spatially-explicit harvest model.

    PubMed

    Takashina, Nao; Mougi, Akihiko

    2015-10-21

    Spatial heterogeneity plays an important role in complex ecosystem dynamics, and therefore is also an important consideration in sustainable resource management. However, little is known about how spatial effects can influence management targets derived from a non-spatial harvest model. Here, we extended the Schaefer model, a conventional non-spatial harvest model that is widely used in resource management, to a spatially-explicit harvest model by integrating environmental heterogeneities, as well as species exchange between patches. By comparing the maximum sustainable yields (MSY), one of the central management targets in resource management, obtained from the spatially extended model with that of the conventional model, we examined the effect of spatial heterogeneity. When spatial heterogeneity exists, we found that the Schaefer model tends to overestimate the MSY, implying potential for causing overharvesting. In addition, by assuming a well-mixed population in the heterogeneous environment, we showed analytically that the Schaefer model always overestimate the MSY, regardless of the number of patches existing. The degree of overestimation becomes significant when spatial heterogeneity is marked. Collectively, these results highlight the importance of integrating the spatial structure to conduct sustainable resource management.

  4. A spatially explicit Bayesian framework for cognitive schooling behaviours

    PubMed Central

    Grünbaum, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    Social aggregations such as schools, swarms, flocks and herds occur across a broad diversity of animal species, strongly impacting ecological and evolutionary dynamics of these species and their predators, prey and competitors. The mechanisms through which individual-level responses to neighbours generate group-level characteristics have been extensively investigated both experimentally and using mathematical models. Models of social groups typically adopt a ‘zone’ approach, in which individuals’ movement responses to neighbours are functions of instantaneous relative position. Empirical studies have demonstrated that most social animals such as fish exhibit well-developed spatial memory and other advanced cognitive capabilities. However, most models of social grouping do not explicitly include spatial memory, largely because a tractable framework for modelling acquisition of and response to historical spatial information has been lacking. Using fish schooling as a focal example, this study presents a framework for including cognitive responses to spatial memory in models of social aggregation. The framework utilizes Bayesian estimation parameters that are continuously distributed in time and space as proxies for animals’ spatial memory. The result is a hybrid Lagrangian–Eulerian model in which the effects of cognitive state and behavioural responses to historical spatial data on individual-, group- and population-level distributions of social animals can be explicitly investigated. PMID:24312727

  5. Spatially explicit spectral analysis of point clouds and geospatial data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Buscombe, Daniel D.

    2015-01-01

    The increasing use of spatially explicit analyses of high-resolution spatially distributed data (imagery and point clouds) for the purposes of characterising spatial heterogeneity in geophysical phenomena necessitates the development of custom analytical and computational tools. In recent years, such analyses have become the basis of, for example, automated texture characterisation and segmentation, roughness and grain size calculation, and feature detection and classification, from a variety of data types. In this work, much use has been made of statistical descriptors of localised spatial variations in amplitude variance (roughness), however the horizontal scale (wavelength) and spacing of roughness elements is rarely considered. This is despite the fact that the ratio of characteristic vertical to horizontal scales is not constant and can yield important information about physical scaling relationships. Spectral analysis is a hitherto under-utilised but powerful means to acquire statistical information about relevant amplitude and wavelength scales, simultaneously and with computational efficiency. Further, quantifying spatially distributed data in the frequency domain lends itself to the development of stochastic models for probing the underlying mechanisms which govern the spatial distribution of geological and geophysical phenomena. The software packagePySESA (Python program for Spatially Explicit Spectral Analysis) has been developed for generic analyses of spatially distributed data in both the spatial and frequency domains. Developed predominantly in Python, it accesses libraries written in Cython and C++ for efficiency. It is open source and modular, therefore readily incorporated into, and combined with, other data analysis tools and frameworks with particular utility for supporting research in the fields of geomorphology, geophysics, hydrography, photogrammetry and remote sensing. The analytical and computational structure of the toolbox is

  6. Spatially explicit spectral analysis of point clouds and geospatial data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buscombe, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    The increasing use of spatially explicit analyses of high-resolution spatially distributed data (imagery and point clouds) for the purposes of characterising spatial heterogeneity in geophysical phenomena necessitates the development of custom analytical and computational tools. In recent years, such analyses have become the basis of, for example, automated texture characterisation and segmentation, roughness and grain size calculation, and feature detection and classification, from a variety of data types. In this work, much use has been made of statistical descriptors of localised spatial variations in amplitude variance (roughness), however the horizontal scale (wavelength) and spacing of roughness elements is rarely considered. This is despite the fact that the ratio of characteristic vertical to horizontal scales is not constant and can yield important information about physical scaling relationships. Spectral analysis is a hitherto under-utilised but powerful means to acquire statistical information about relevant amplitude and wavelength scales, simultaneously and with computational efficiency. Further, quantifying spatially distributed data in the frequency domain lends itself to the development of stochastic models for probing the underlying mechanisms which govern the spatial distribution of geological and geophysical phenomena. The software package PySESA (Python program for Spatially Explicit Spectral Analysis) has been developed for generic analyses of spatially distributed data in both the spatial and frequency domains. Developed predominantly in Python, it accesses libraries written in Cython and C++ for efficiency. It is open source and modular, therefore readily incorporated into, and combined with, other data analysis tools and frameworks with particular utility for supporting research in the fields of geomorphology, geophysics, hydrography, photogrammetry and remote sensing. The analytical and computational structure of the toolbox is described

  7. Population dynamics of epiphytic orchids in a metapopulation context

    PubMed Central

    Winkler, Manuela; Hülber, Karl; Hietz, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Background and Aims Populations of many epiphytes show a patchy distribution where clusters of plants growing on individual trees are spatially separated and may thus function as metapopulations. Seed dispersal is necessary to (re)colonize unoccupied habitats, and to transfer seeds from high- to low-competition patches. Increasing dispersal distances, however, reduces local fecundity and the probability that seeds will find a safe site outside the original patch. Thus, there is a conflict between seed survival and colonization. Methods Populations of three epiphytic orchids were monitored over three years in a Mexican humid montane forest and analysed with spatially averaged and with spatially explicit matrix metapopulation models. In the latter, population dynamics at the scale of the subpopulations (epiphytes on individual host trees) are based on detailed stage-structured observations of transition probabilities and trees are connected by a dispersal function. Key Results Population growth rates differed among trees and years. While ignoring these differences, and averaging the population matrices over trees, yields negative population growth, metapopulation models predict stable or growing populations because the trees that support growing subpopulations determine the growth of the metapopulation. Stochastic models which account for the differences among years differed only marginally from deterministic models. Population growth rates were significantly lower, and extinctions of local patches more frequent in models where higher dispersal results in reduced local fecundity compared with hypothetical models where this is not the case. The difference between the two models increased with increasing mean dispersal distance. Though recolonization events increased with dispersal distance, this could not compensate the losses due to reduced local fecundity. Conclusions For epiphytes, metapopulation models are useful to capture processes beyond the level of the single

  8. Spatial occupancy models for predicting metapopulation dynamics and viability following reintroduction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chandler, Richard B.; Muths, Erin L.; Sigafus, Brent H.; Schwalbe, Cecil R.; Jarchow, Christopher J; Hossack, Blake R.

    2015-01-01

    Synthesis and applications. This work demonstrates how spatio-temporal statistical models based on ecological theory can be applied to forecast the outcomes of conservation actions such as reintroduction. Our spatial occupancy model should be particularly useful when management agencies lack the funds to collect intensive individual-level data.

  9. Integrating remote sensing and spatially explicit epidemiological modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finger, Flavio; Knox, Allyn; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Bompangue, Didier; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2015-04-01

    Spatially explicit epidemiological models are a crucial tool for the prediction of epidemiological patterns in time and space as well as for the allocation of health care resources. In addition they can provide valuable information about epidemiological processes and allow for the identification of environmental drivers of the disease spread. Most epidemiological models rely on environmental data as inputs. They can either be measured in the field by the means of conventional instruments or using remote sensing techniques to measure suitable proxies of the variables of interest. The later benefit from several advantages over conventional methods, including data availability, which can be an issue especially in developing, and spatial as well as temporal resolution of the data, which is particularly crucial for spatially explicit models. Here we present the case study of a spatially explicit, semi-mechanistic model applied to recurring cholera outbreaks in the Lake Kivu area (Democratic Republic of the Congo). The model describes the cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of the lake. Remotely sensed datasets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers. Human mobility and its effect on the disease spread is also taken into account. Several model configurations are tested on a data set of reported cases. The best models, accounting for different environmental drivers, and selected using the Akaike information criterion, are formally compared via cross validation. The best performing model accounts for seasonality, El Niño Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility.

  10. A spatially explicit risk approach to support marine spatial planning in the German EEZ.

    PubMed

    Gimpel, Antje; Stelzenmüller, Vanessa; Cormier, Roland; Floeter, Jens; Temming, Axel

    2013-05-01

    An ecosystem approach to marine spatial planning (MSP) promotes sustainable development by organizing human activities in a geo-spatial and temporal context. (1) This study develops and tests a spatially explicit risk assessment to support MSP. Using the German exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the North Sea as a case study area, current and future spatial management scenarios are assessed. (2) Different tools are linked in order to carry out a comprehensive spatial risk assessment of current and future spatial management scenarios for ecologic and economic ecosystem components, i.e. Pleuronectes platessa nursery grounds. With the identification of key inputs and outputs the suitability of each tool is tested. (3) Here, the procedure as well as the main findings of the spatially explicit risk approach are summarised to demonstrate the applicability of the framework and the need for an ecosystem approach to risk management techniques using geo-spatial tools.

  11. Parameter and uncertainty estimation for mechanistic, spatially explicit epidemiological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finger, Flavio; Schaefli, Bettina; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Epidemiological models can be a crucially important tool for decision-making during disease outbreaks. The range of possible applications spans from real-time forecasting and allocation of health-care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. Our spatially explicit, mechanistic models for cholera epidemics have been successfully applied to several epidemics including, the one that struck Haiti in late 2010 and is still ongoing. Calibration and parameter estimation of such models represents a major challenge because of properties unusual in traditional geoscientific domains such as hydrology. Firstly, the epidemiological data available might be subject to high uncertainties due to error-prone diagnosis as well as manual (and possibly incomplete) data collection. Secondly, long-term time-series of epidemiological data are often unavailable. Finally, the spatially explicit character of the models requires the comparison of several time-series of model outputs with their real-world counterparts, which calls for an appropriate weighting scheme. It follows that the usual assumption of a homoscedastic Gaussian error distribution, used in combination with classical calibration techniques based on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, is likely to be violated, whereas the construction of an appropriate formal likelihood function seems close to impossible. Alternative calibration methods, which allow for accurate estimation of total model uncertainty, particularly regarding the envisaged use of the models for decision-making, are thus needed. Here we present the most recent developments regarding methods for parameter and uncertainty estimation to be used with our mechanistic, spatially explicit models for cholera epidemics, based on informal measures of goodness of fit.

  12. Spatial and temporal variation of diet within a presumed metapopulation of Adelie penguins

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ainley, D.G.; Ballard, G.; Barton, K.J.; Karl, B.J.; Rau, G.H.; Ribic, C.A.; Wilson, P.R.

    2003-01-01

    We investigated temporal and spatial variability in the diet of chick-provisioning Ade??lie Penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding at all colonies within one isolated cluster in the southwestern Ross Sea, Antarctica, 1994-2000. We wished to determine if prey quality explained different population growth and emigration rates among colonies. Diet composition was described both by conventional means (stomach samples) and by analysis of stable isotopes in chick tissues (toenails of individuals killed by skuas [Stercorarius maccormicki]). Diets were similar among the four study colonies compared to the disparity apparent among 14 widely spaced sites around the continent. Calorimetry indicated that fish are more energetically valuable than krill, implying that if diet varied by colony, diet quality could attract recruits and help to explain differential rates of colony growth. However, a multiple-regression analysis indicated that diet varied as a function of year, time within the year, and percent of foraging area covered by sea ice, but not by colony location. Stable isotopes revealed similarity of diet at one colony where conventional sampling was not possible. We confirmed that sea ice importantly affects diet composition of this species in neritic waters, and found that (1) quality of summer diet cannot explain different population growth rates among colonies, and (2) stable isotope analysis of chick tissues (toenails) is a useful tool to synoptically describe diet in this species over a large area.

  13. Compensatory heterogeneity in spatially explicit capture-recapture data.

    PubMed

    Efford, M G; Mowat, G

    2014-05-01

    Spatially explicit capture-recapture methods, used widely to estimate the abundance of large carnivores, allow for movement within home ranges during sampling. Probability of detection is a decreasing function of distance from the home range center, with one parameter for magnitude and another for spatial scale. Sex-based and other differences in home range size potentially cause heterogeneity in individual detection and bias in estimates of density. The two parameters of detection have hitherto been treated as independent, but we suggest that an inverse relation is expected when detection probability depends on time spent near the detector. Variation in the spatial scale of detection is then compensated by reciprocal variation in the magnitude parameter. We define a net measure of detection ("single-detector sampling area," a(0)), and show by simulation that its coefficient of variation (CV) is a better predictor of bias than the CV of either component or the sum of their squared CVs. In an example using the grizzly bear Ursus arctos, the estimated sex variation in a(0) was small despite large variation in each component. From the simulations, the relative bias of density estimates was generally negligible (< 5%) when CV(a(0)) < 30%. Parameterization of the detection model in terms of a(0) and spatial scale can be more parsimonious and significantly aids the biological interpretation of detection parameters.

  14. Spatially explicit models, generalized reproduction numbers and the prediction of patterns of waterborne disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rinaldo, A.; Gatto, M.; Mari, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2012-12-01

    still lacking. Here, we show that the requirement that all the local reproduction numbers R0 be larger than unity is neither necessary nor sufficient for outbreaks to occur when local settlements are connected by networks of primary and secondary infection mechanisms. To determine onset conditions, we derive general analytical expressions for a reproduction matrix G0 explicitly accounting for spatial distributions of human settlements and pathogen transmission via hydrological and human mobility networks. At disease onset, a generalized reproduction number Λ0 (the dominant eigenvalue of G0) must be larger than unity. We also show that geographical outbreak patterns in complex environments are linked to the dominant eigenvector and to spectral properties of G0. Tests against data and computations for the 2010 Haiti and 2000 KwaZulu-Natal cholera outbreaks, as well as against computations for metapopulation networks, demonstrate that eigenvectors of G0 provide a synthetic and effective tool for predicting the disease course in space and time. Networked connectivity models, describing the interplay between hydrology, epidemiology and social behavior sustaining human mobility, thus prove to be key tools for emergency management of waterborne infections.

  15. Spatially explicit shallow landslide susceptibility mapping over large areas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bellugi, Dino; Dietrich, William E.; Stock, Jonathan D.; McKean, Jim; Kazian, Brian; Hargrove, Paul

    2011-01-01

    Recent advances in downscaling climate model precipitation predictions now yield spatially explicit patterns of rainfall that could be used to estimate shallow landslide susceptibility over large areas. In California, the United States Geological Survey is exploring community emergency response to the possible effects of a very large simulated storm event and to do so it has generated downscaled precipitation maps for the storm. To predict the corresponding pattern of shallow landslide susceptibility across the state, we have used the model Shalstab (a coupled steady state runoff and infinite slope stability model) which susceptibility spatially explicit estimates of relative potential instability. Such slope stability models that include the effects of subsurface runoff on potentially destabilizing pore pressure evolution require water routing and hence the definition of upslope drainage area to each potential cell. To calculate drainage area efficiently over a large area we developed a parallel framework to scale-up Shalstab and specifically introduce a new efficient parallel drainage area algorithm which produces seamless results. The single seamless shallow landslide susceptibility map for all of California was accomplished in a short run time, and indicates that much larger areas can be efficiently modelled. As landslide maps generally over predict the extent of instability for any given storm. Local empirical data on the fraction of predicted unstable cells that failed for observed rainfall intensity can be used to specify the likely extent of hazard for a given storm. This suggests that campaigns to collect local precipitation data and detailed shallow landslide location maps after major storms could be used to calibrate models and improve their use in hazard assessment for individual storms.

  16. Spatially explicit assessment of estuarine fish after Deepwater ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Evaluating long- term contaminant effects on wildlife populations depends on spatial information about habitat quality, heterogeneity in contaminant exposure, and sensitivities and distributions of species integrated into a systems modeling approach. Rarely is this information readily available, making it difficult to determine the applicability of realistic models to quantify population- level risks. To evaluate the trade- offs between data demands and increased specificity of spatially explicit models for population- level risk assessments, we developed a model for a standard toxicity test species, the sheepshead minnow (Cyprinodon variegatus), exposed to oil contamination following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and compared the output with various levels of model complexity to a standard risk quotient approach. The model uses habitat and fish occupancy data collected over five sampling periods throughout 2008–2010 in Pensacola and Choctawhatchee Bays, Florida, USA, to predict species distribution, field- collected and publically available data on oil distribution and concentration, and chronic toxicity data from laboratory assays applied to a matrix population model. The habitat suitability model established distribution of fish within Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA, and the population model projected the dynamics of the species in the study area over a 5- yr period (October 2009–September 2014). Vital rates were modified according to estimated co

  17. Global spatially explicit CO2 emission metrics for forest bioenergy.

    PubMed

    Cherubini, Francesco; Huijbregts, Mark; Kindermann, Georg; Van Zelm, Rosalie; Van Der Velde, Marijn; Stadler, Konstantin; Strømman, Anders Hammer

    2016-02-02

    Emission metrics aggregate climate impacts of greenhouse gases to common units such as CO2-equivalents (CO2-eq.). Examples include the global warming potential (GWP), the global temperature change potential (GTP) and the absolute sustained emission temperature (aSET). Despite the importance of biomass as a primary energy supplier in existing and future scenarios, emission metrics for CO2 from forest bioenergy are only available on a case-specific basis. Here, we produce global spatially explicit emission metrics for CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy and illustrate their applications to global emissions in 2015 and until 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. We obtain global average values of 0.49 ± 0.03 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2(-1) (mean ± standard deviation) for GWP, 0.05 ± 0.05 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2(-1) for GTP, and 2.14·10(-14) ± 0.11·10(-14) °C (kg yr(-1))(-1) for aSET. We explore metric dependencies on temperature, precipitation, biomass turnover times and extraction rates of forest residues. We find relatively high emission metrics with low precipitation, long rotation times and low residue extraction rates. Our results provide a basis for assessing CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy under different indicators and across various spatial and temporal scales.

  18. Spatially-explicit models of global tree density

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glick, Henry B.; Bettigole, Charlie; Maynard, Daniel S.; Covey, Kristofer R.; Smith, Jeffrey R.; Crowther, Thomas W.

    2016-08-01

    Remote sensing and geographic analysis of woody vegetation provide means of evaluating the distribution of natural resources, patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem structure, and socio-economic drivers of resource utilization. While these methods bring geographic datasets with global coverage into our day-to-day analytic spheres, many of the studies that rely on these strategies do not capitalize on the extensive collection of existing field data. We present the methods and maps associated with the first spatially-explicit models of global tree density, which relied on over 420,000 forest inventory field plots from around the world. This research is the result of a collaborative effort engaging over 20 scientists and institutions, and capitalizes on an array of analytical strategies. Our spatial data products offer precise estimates of the number of trees at global and biome scales, but should not be used for local-level estimation. At larger scales, these datasets can contribute valuable insight into resource management, ecological modelling efforts, and the quantification of ecosystem services.

  19. Spatially-explicit models of global tree density

    PubMed Central

    Glick, Henry B.; Bettigole, Charlie; Maynard, Daniel S.; Covey, Kristofer R.; Smith, Jeffrey R.; Crowther, Thomas W.

    2016-01-01

    Remote sensing and geographic analysis of woody vegetation provide means of evaluating the distribution of natural resources, patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem structure, and socio-economic drivers of resource utilization. While these methods bring geographic datasets with global coverage into our day-to-day analytic spheres, many of the studies that rely on these strategies do not capitalize on the extensive collection of existing field data. We present the methods and maps associated with the first spatially-explicit models of global tree density, which relied on over 420,000 forest inventory field plots from around the world. This research is the result of a collaborative effort engaging over 20 scientists and institutions, and capitalizes on an array of analytical strategies. Our spatial data products offer precise estimates of the number of trees at global and biome scales, but should not be used for local-level estimation. At larger scales, these datasets can contribute valuable insight into resource management, ecological modelling efforts, and the quantification of ecosystem services. PMID:27529613

  20. Global spatially explicit CO2 emission metrics for forest bioenergy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cherubini, Francesco; Huijbregts, Mark; Kindermann, Georg; van Zelm, Rosalie; van der Velde, Marijn; Stadler, Konstantin; Strømman, Anders Hammer

    2016-02-01

    Emission metrics aggregate climate impacts of greenhouse gases to common units such as CO2-equivalents (CO2-eq.). Examples include the global warming potential (GWP), the global temperature change potential (GTP) and the absolute sustained emission temperature (aSET). Despite the importance of biomass as a primary energy supplier in existing and future scenarios, emission metrics for CO2 from forest bioenergy are only available on a case-specific basis. Here, we produce global spatially explicit emission metrics for CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy and illustrate their applications to global emissions in 2015 and until 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. We obtain global average values of 0.49 ± 0.03 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1 (mean ± standard deviation) for GWP, 0.05 ± 0.05 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1 for GTP, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1 for aSET. We explore metric dependencies on temperature, precipitation, biomass turnover times and extraction rates of forest residues. We find relatively high emission metrics with low precipitation, long rotation times and low residue extraction rates. Our results provide a basis for assessing CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy under different indicators and across various spatial and temporal scales.

  1. CDMetaPOP: An individual-based, eco-evolutionary model for spatially explicit simulation of landscape demogenetics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Landguth, Erin L; Bearlin, Andrew; Day, Casey; Dunham, Jason

    2016-01-01

    1. Combining landscape demographic and genetics models offers powerful methods for addressing questions for eco-evolutionary applications.2. Using two illustrative examples, we present Cost–Distance Meta-POPulation, a program to simulate changes in neutral and/or selection-driven genotypes through time as a function of individual-based movement, complex spatial population dynamics, and multiple and changing landscape drivers.3. Cost–Distance Meta-POPulation provides a novel tool for questions in landscape genetics by incorporating population viability analysis, while linking directly to conservation applications.

  2. Spatial working memory interferes with explicit, but not probabilistic cuing of spatial attention.

    PubMed

    Won, Bo-Yeong; Jiang, Yuhong V

    2015-05-01

    Recent empirical and theoretical work has depicted a close relationship between visual attention and visual working memory. For example, rehearsal in spatial working memory depends on spatial attention, whereas adding a secondary spatial working memory task impairs attentional deployment in visual search. These findings have led to the proposal that working memory is attention directed toward internal representations. Here, we show that the close relationship between these 2 constructs is limited to some but not all forms of spatial attention. In 5 experiments, participants held color arrays, dot locations, or a sequence of dots in working memory. During the memory retention interval, they performed a T-among-L visual search task. Crucially, the probable target location was cued either implicitly through location probability learning or explicitly with a central arrow or verbal instruction. Our results showed that whereas imposing a visual working memory load diminished the effectiveness of explicit cuing, it did not interfere with probability cuing. We conclude that spatial working memory shares similar mechanisms with explicit, goal-driven attention but is dissociated from implicitly learned attention.

  3. Global spatially explicit CO2 emission metrics for forest bioenergy

    PubMed Central

    Cherubini, Francesco; Huijbregts, Mark; Kindermann, Georg; Van Zelm, Rosalie; Van Der Velde, Marijn; Stadler, Konstantin; Strømman, Anders Hammer

    2016-01-01

    Emission metrics aggregate climate impacts of greenhouse gases to common units such as CO2-equivalents (CO2-eq.). Examples include the global warming potential (GWP), the global temperature change potential (GTP) and the absolute sustained emission temperature (aSET). Despite the importance of biomass as a primary energy supplier in existing and future scenarios, emission metrics for CO2 from forest bioenergy are only available on a case-specific basis. Here, we produce global spatially explicit emission metrics for CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy and illustrate their applications to global emissions in 2015 and until 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. We obtain global average values of 0.49 ± 0.03 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2−1 (mean ± standard deviation) for GWP, 0.05 ± 0.05 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2−1 for GTP, and 2.14·10−14 ± 0.11·10−14 °C (kg yr−1)−1 for aSET. We explore metric dependencies on temperature, precipitation, biomass turnover times and extraction rates of forest residues. We find relatively high emission metrics with low precipitation, long rotation times and low residue extraction rates. Our results provide a basis for assessing CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy under different indicators and across various spatial and temporal scales. PMID:26830755

  4. A Spatially Explicit Model of Functional Connectivity for the Endangered Przewalski’s Gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) in a Patchy Landscape

    PubMed Central

    Li, Chunlin; Jiang, Zhigang; Fang, Hongxia; Li, Chunwang

    2013-01-01

    Background Habitat fragmentation, associated with human population expansion, impedes dispersal, reduces gene flow and aggravates inbreeding in species on the brink of extinction. Both scientific and conservation communities increasingly realize that maintaining and restoring landscape connectivity is of vital importance in biodiversity conservation. Prior to any conservation initiatives, it is helpful to present conservation practitioners with a spatially explicit model of functional connectivity for the target species or landscape. Methodology/Principal Findings Using Przewalski’s gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) as a model of endangered ungulate species in highly fragmented landscape, we present a model providing spatially explicit information to inform the long-term preservation of well-connected metapopulations. We employed a Geographic Information System (GIS) and expert-literature method to create a habitat suitability map, to identify potential habitats and to delineate a functional connectivity network (least-cost movement corridors and paths) for the gazelle. Results indicated that there were limited suitable habitats for the gazelle, mainly found to the north and northwest of the Qinghai Lake where four of five potential habitat patches were identified. Fifteen pairs of least-cost corridors and paths were mapped connecting eleven extant populations and two neighboring potential patches. The least-cost paths ranged from 0.2 km to 26.8 km in length (averaging 12.4 km) and were all longer than corresponding Euclidean distances. Conclusions/Significance The model outputs were validated and supported by the latest findings in landscape genetics of the species, and may provide impetus for connectivity conservation programs. Dispersal barriers were examined and appropriate mitigation strategies were suggested. This study provides conservation practitioners with thorough and visualized information to reserve the landscape connectivity for Przewalski’s gazelle

  5. Improvement, Verification, and Refinement of Spatially-Explicit Exposure Models in Risk Assessment - FishRand Spatially-Explicit Bioaccumulation Model Demonstration

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-08-01

    Germany.  von Stackelberg, K., 2010. Spatially-Explicit Bioaccumulation Modeling. Presented at the Society for Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry ...Explicit Bioaccumulation Modeling. Presented at the Society for Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Annual Meeting, November 2010, Portland, OR... Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act CERCLIS Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Information System

  6. Portfolio conservation of metapopulations under climate change.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Sean C; Moore, Jonathan W; McClure, Michelle M; Dulvy, Nicholas K; Cooper, Andrew B

    2015-03-01

    Climate change is likely to lead to increasing population variability and extinction risk. Theoretically, greater population diversity should buffer against rising climate variability, and this theory is often invoked as a reason for greater conservation. However, this has rarely been quantified. Here we show how a portfolio approach to managing population diversity can inform metapopulation conservation priorities in a changing world. We develop a salmon metapopulation model in which productivity is driven by spatially distributed thermal tolerance and patterns of short- and long-term climate change. We then implement spatial conservation scenarios that control population carrying capacities and evaluate the metapopulation portfolios as a financial manager might: along axes of conservation risk and return. We show that preserving a diversity of thermal tolerances minimizes risk, given environmental stochasticity, and ensures persistence, given long-term environmental change. When the thermal tolerances of populations are unknown, doubling the number of populations conserved may nearly halve expected metapopulation variability. However, this reduction in variability can come at the expense of long-term persistence if climate change increasingly restricts available habitat, forcing ecological managers to balance society's desire for short-term stability and long-term viability. Our findings suggest the importance of conserving the processes that promote thermal-tolerance diversity, such as genetic diversity, habitat heterogeneity, and natural disturbance regimes, and demonstrate that diverse natural portfolios may be critical for metapopulation conservation in the face of increasing climate variability and change.

  7. A spatially explicit estimate of avoided forest loss.

    PubMed

    Honey-Rosés, Jordi; Baylis, Kathy; Ramírez, M Isabel

    2011-10-01

    With the potential expansion of forest conservation programs spurred by climate-change agreements, there is a need to measure the extent to which such programs achieve their intended results. Conventional methods for evaluating conservation impact tend to be biased because they do not compare like areas or account for spatial relations. We assessed the effect of a conservation initiative that combined designation of protected areas with payments for environmental services to conserve over wintering habitat for the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) in Mexico. To do so, we used a spatial-matching estimator that matches covariates among polygons and their neighbors. We measured avoided forest loss (avoided disturbance and deforestation) by comparing forest cover on protected and unprotected lands that were similar in terms of accessibility, governance, and forest type. Whereas conventional estimates of avoided forest loss suggest that conservation initiatives did not protect forest cover, we found evidence that the conservation measures are preserving forest cover. We found that the conservation measures protected between 200 ha and 710 ha (3-16%) of forest that is high-quality habitat for monarch butterflies, but had a smaller effect on total forest cover, preserving between 0 ha and 200 ha (0-2.5%) of forest with canopy cover >70%. We suggest that future estimates of avoided forest loss be analyzed spatially to account for how forest loss occurs across the landscape. Given the forthcoming demand from donors and carbon financiers for estimates of avoided forest loss, we anticipate our methods and results will contribute to future studies that estimate the outcome of conservation efforts.

  8. Elucidating spatially explicit behavioral landscapes in the Willow Flycatcher

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bakian, Amanda V.; Sullivan, Kimberly A.; Paxton, Eben H.

    2012-01-01

    Animal resource selection is a complex, hierarchical decision-making process, yet resource selection studies often focus on the presence and absence of an animal rather than the animal's behavior at resource use locations. In this study, we investigate foraging and vocalization resource selection in a population of Willow Flycatchers, Empidonax traillii adastus, using Bayesian spatial generalized linear models. These models produce “behavioral landscapes” in which space use and resource selection is linked through behavior. Radio telemetry locations were collected from 35 adult Willow Flycatchers (n = 14 males, n = 13 females, and n = 8 unknown sex) over the 2003 and 2004 breeding seasons at Fish Creek, Utah. Results from the 2-stage modeling approach showed that habitat type, perch position, and distance from the arithmetic mean of the home range (in males) or nest site (in females) were important factors influencing foraging and vocalization resource selection. Parameter estimates from the individual-level models indicated high intraspecific variation in the use of the various habitat types and perch heights for foraging and vocalization. On the population level, Willow Flycatchers selected riparian habitat over other habitat types for vocalizing but used multiple habitat types for foraging including mountain shrub, young riparian, and upland forest. Mapping of observed and predicted foraging and vocalization resource selection indicated that the behavior often occurred in disparate areas of the home range. This suggests that multiple core areas may exist in the home ranges of individual flycatchers, and demonstrates that the behavioral landscape modeling approach can be applied to identify spatially and behaviorally distinct core areas. The behavioral landscape approach is applicable to a wide range of animal taxa and can be used to improve our understanding of the spatial context of behavior and resource selection.

  9. Spatially explicit methodology for coordinated manure management in shared watersheds.

    PubMed

    Sharara, Mahmoud; Sampat, Apoorva; Good, Laura W; Smith, Amanda S; Porter, Pamela; Zavala, Victor M; Larson, Rebecca; Runge, Troy

    2017-05-01

    Increased clustering and consolidation of livestock production systems has been linked to adverse impacts on water quality. This study presents a methodology to optimize manure management within a hydrologic region to minimize agricultural phosphorus (P) loss associated with winter manure application. Spatial and non-spatial data representing livestock, crop, soil, terrain and hydrography were compiled to determine manure P production rates, crop P uptake, existing manure storage capabilities, and transportation distances. Field slope, hydrologic soil group (HSG), and proximity to waterbodies were used to classify crop fields according to their runoff risk for winter-applied manure. We use these data to construct a comprehensive optimization model that identifies optimal location, size, and transportation strategy to achieve environmental and economic goals. The environmental goal was the minimization of daily hauling of manure to environmentally sensitive crop fields, i.e., those classified as high P-loss fields, whereas the economic goal was the minimization of the transportation costs across the entire study area. A case study encompassing two contiguous 10-digit hydrologic unit subwatersheds (HUC-10) in South Central Wisconsin, USA was developed to demonstrate the proposed methodology. Additionally, scenarios representing different management decisions (storage facility maximum volume, and project capital) and production conditions (increased milk production and 20-year future projection) were analyzed to determine their impact on optimal decisions.

  10. Spatially explicit data: stewardship and ethical challenges in science.

    PubMed

    Hartter, Joel; Ryan, Sadie J; Mackenzie, Catrina A; Parker, John N; Strasser, Carly A

    2013-09-01

    Scholarly communication is at an unprecedented turning point created in part by the increasing saliency of data stewardship and data sharing. Formal data management plans represent a new emphasis in research, enabling access to data at higher volumes and more quickly, and the potential for replication and augmentation of existing research. Data sharing has recently transformed the practice, scope, content, and applicability of research in several disciplines, in particular in relation to spatially specific data. This lends exciting potentiality, but the most effective ways in which to implement such changes, particularly for disciplines involving human subjects and other sensitive information, demand consideration. Data management plans, stewardship, and sharing, impart distinctive technical, sociological, and ethical challenges that remain to be adequately identified and remedied. Here, we consider these and propose potential solutions for their amelioration.

  11. Spatially Explicit Data: Stewardship and Ethical Challenges in Science

    PubMed Central

    Hartter, Joel; Ryan, Sadie J.; MacKenzie, Catrina A.; Parker, John N.; Strasser, Carly A.

    2013-01-01

    Scholarly communication is at an unprecedented turning point created in part by the increasing saliency of data stewardship and data sharing. Formal data management plans represent a new emphasis in research, enabling access to data at higher volumes and more quickly, and the potential for replication and augmentation of existing research. Data sharing has recently transformed the practice, scope, content, and applicability of research in several disciplines, in particular in relation to spatially specific data. This lends exciting potentiality, but the most effective ways in which to implement such changes, particularly for disciplines involving human subjects and other sensitive information, demand consideration. Data management plans, stewardship, and sharing, impart distinctive technical, sociological, and ethical challenges that remain to be adequately identified and remedied. Here, we consider these and propose potential solutions for their amelioration. PMID:24058292

  12. Program SPACECAP: software for estimating animal density using spatially explicit capture-recapture models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hines, James E.; Singh, Pallavi; Jathanna, Devcharan; Kumar, N. Samba; Karanth, K. Ullas

    2012-01-01

    1. The advent of spatially explicit capture-recapture models is changing the way ecologists analyse capture-recapture data. However, the advantages offered by these new models are not fully exploited because they can be difficult to implement. 2. To address this need, we developed a user-friendly software package, created within the R programming environment, called SPACECAP. This package implements Bayesian spatially explicit hierarchical models to analyse spatial capture-recapture data. 3. Given that a large number of field biologists prefer software with graphical user interfaces for analysing their data, SPACECAP is particularly useful as a tool to increase the adoption of Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture methods in practice.

  13. Spatially explicit multimedia fate models for pollutants in Europe: state of the art and perspectives.

    PubMed

    Pistocchi, A; Sarigiannis, D A; Vizcaino, P

    2010-08-15

    A review by Hollander et al. (in preparation), discusses the relative potentials, advantages and shortcomings of spatial and non spatial models of chemical fate, highlighting that spatially explicit models may be needed for specific purposes. The present paper reviews the state of the art in spatially explicit chemical fate and transport modeling in Europe. We summarize the three main approaches currently adopted in spatially explicit modeling, namely (1) multiple box models, (2) numerical solutions of simultaneous advection-dispersion equations (ADE) in air, soil and water, and (3) the development of meta-models. As all three approaches experience limitations, we describe in further detail geographic information system (GIS)-based modeling as an alternative approach allowing a simple, yet spatially explicit description of chemical fate. We review the input data needed, and the options available for their retrieval at the European scale. We also discuss the importance of, and limitations in model evaluation. We observe that the high uncertainty in chemical emissions and physico-chemical behavior in the environment make realistic simulations difficult to obtain. Therefore we envisage a shift in model use from process simulation to hypothesis testing, in which explaining the discrepancies between observed and computed chemical concentrations in the environment takes importance over prediction per se. This shift may take advantage of using simple models in GIS with residual uses of complex models for detailed studies. It also calls for tighter joint interpretation of models and spatially distributed monitoring datasets, and more refined spatial representation of environmental drivers such as landscape and climate variables, and better emission estimates. In summary, we conclude that the problem is not "how to compute" (i.e. emphasis on numerical methods, spatial/temporal discretization, quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analysis...) but "what to compute" (i

  14. Spatial and temporal patterns of larval dispersal in a coral-reef fish metapopulation: evidence of variable reproductive success.

    PubMed

    Pusack, Timothy J; Christie, Mark R; Johnson, Darren W; Stallings, Christopher D; Hixon, Mark A

    2014-07-01

    Many marine organisms can be transported hundreds of kilometres during their pelagic larval stage, yet little is known about spatial and temporal patterns of larval dispersal. Although traditional population-genetic tools can be applied to infer movement of larvae on an evolutionary timescale, large effective population sizes and high rates of gene flow present serious challenges to documenting dispersal patterns over shorter, ecologically relevant, timescales. Here, we address these challenges by combining direct parentage analysis and indirect genetic analyses over a 4-year period to document spatial and temporal patterns of larval dispersal in a common coral-reef fish: the bicolour damselfish (Stegastes partitus). At four island locations surrounding Exuma Sound, Bahamas, including a long-established marine reserve, we collected 3278 individuals and genotyped them at 10 microsatellite loci. Using Bayesian parentage analysis, we identified eight parent-offspring pairs, thereby directly documenting dispersal distances ranging from 0 km (i.e., self-recruitment) to 129 km (i.e., larval connectivity). Despite documenting substantial dispersal and gene flow between islands, we observed more self-recruitment events than expected if the larvae were drawn from a common, well-mixed pool (i.e., a completely open population). Additionally, we detected both spatial and temporal variation in signatures of sweepstakes and Wahlund effects. The high variance in reproductive success (i.e., 'sweepstakes') we observed may be influenced by seasonal mesoscale gyres present in the Exuma Sound, which play a prominent role in shaping local oceanographic patterns. This study documents the complex nature of larval dispersal in a coral-reef fish, and highlights the importance of sampling multiple cohorts and coupling both direct and indirect genetic methods in order disentangle patterns of dispersal, gene flow and variable reproductive success.

  15. A spatial explicit strategy reduces error but interferes with sensorimotor adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Benson, Bryan L.; Anguera, Joaquin A.

    2011-01-01

    Although sensorimotor adaptation is typically thought of as an implicit form of learning, it has been shown that participants who gain explicit awareness of the nature of the perturbation during adaptation exhibit more learning than those who do not. With rare exceptions, however, explicit awareness is typically polled at the end of the study. Here, we provided participants with either an explicit spatial strategy or no instructions before learning. Early in learning, explicit instructions greatly reduced movement errors but also resulted in increased trial-to-trial variability and longer reaction times. Late in adaptation, performance was indistinguishable between the explicit and implicit groups, but the mechanisms underlying performance improvements remained fundamentally different, as revealed by catch trials. The progression of implicit recalibration in the explicit group was modulated by the use of an explicit strategy: these participants showed a lower level of recalibration as well as decreased aftereffects. This phenomenon may be due to the reduced magnitude of errors made to the target during adaptation or inhibition of implicit learning mechanisms by explicit processing. PMID:21451054

  16. Modeling trends from North American breeding bird survey data: a spatially explicit approach.

    PubMed

    Bled, Florent; Sauer, John; Pardieck, Keith; Doherty, Paul; Royle, J Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

  17. Modeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bled, Florent; Sauer, John R.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Doherty, Paul; Royle, J. Andy

    2013-01-01

    Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

  18. Software System Design for Large Scale, Spatially-explicit Agroecosystem Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Dali; Nichols, Dr Jeff A; Kang, Shujiang; Post, Wilfred M; Liu, Sumang

    2012-01-01

    Recently, site-based agroecosystem model has been applied at regional and state level to enable comprehensive analyses of environmental sustainability of food and biofuel production. Those large-scale, spatially-explicit simulations present computational challenges in software systems design. Herein, we describe our software system design for large-scale, spatially-explicit agroecosystem modeling and data analysis. First, we describe the software design principles in three major phases: data preparation, high performance simulation, and data management and analysis. Then, we use a case study at a regional intensive modeling area (RIMA) to demonstrate our system implementation and capability.

  19. Implicit and Explicit Gender Beliefs in Spatial Ability: Stronger Stereotyping in Boys than Girls

    PubMed Central

    Vander Heyden, Karin M.; van Atteveldt, Nienke M.; Huizinga, Mariette; Jolles, Jelle

    2016-01-01

    Sex differences in spatial ability are a seriously debated topic, given the importance of spatial ability for success in the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) and girls' underrepresentation in these domains. In the current study we investigated the presence of stereotypic gender beliefs on spatial ability (i.e., “spatial ability is for boys”) in 10- and 12-year-old children. We used both an explicit measure (i.e., a self-report questionnaire) and an implicit measure (i.e., a child IAT). Results of the explicit measure showed that both sexes associated spatial ability with boys, with boys holding more male stereotyped attitudes than girls. On the implicit measure, boys associated spatial ability with boys, while girls were gender-neutral. In addition, we examined the effects of gender beliefs on spatial performance, by experimentally activating gender beliefs within a pretest—instruction—posttest design. We compared three types of instruction: boys are better, girls are better, and no sex differences. No effects of these gender belief instructions were found on children's spatial test performance (i.e., mental rotation and paper folding). The finding that children of this age already have stereotypic beliefs about the spatial capacities of their own sex is important, as these beliefs may influence children's choices for spatial leisure activities and educational tracks in the STEM domain. PMID:27507956

  20. Implicit and Explicit Gender Beliefs in Spatial Ability: Stronger Stereotyping in Boys than Girls.

    PubMed

    Vander Heyden, Karin M; van Atteveldt, Nienke M; Huizinga, Mariette; Jolles, Jelle

    2016-01-01

    Sex differences in spatial ability are a seriously debated topic, given the importance of spatial ability for success in the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) and girls' underrepresentation in these domains. In the current study we investigated the presence of stereotypic gender beliefs on spatial ability (i.e., "spatial ability is for boys") in 10- and 12-year-old children. We used both an explicit measure (i.e., a self-report questionnaire) and an implicit measure (i.e., a child IAT). Results of the explicit measure showed that both sexes associated spatial ability with boys, with boys holding more male stereotyped attitudes than girls. On the implicit measure, boys associated spatial ability with boys, while girls were gender-neutral. In addition, we examined the effects of gender beliefs on spatial performance, by experimentally activating gender beliefs within a pretest-instruction-posttest design. We compared three types of instruction: boys are better, girls are better, and no sex differences. No effects of these gender belief instructions were found on children's spatial test performance (i.e., mental rotation and paper folding). The finding that children of this age already have stereotypic beliefs about the spatial capacities of their own sex is important, as these beliefs may influence children's choices for spatial leisure activities and educational tracks in the STEM domain.

  1. DEFINING RECOVERY GOALS AND STRATEGIES FOR ENDANGERED SPECIES USING SPATIALLY-EXPLICIT POPULATION MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We used a spatially explicit population model of wolves (Canis lupus) to propose a framework for defining rangewide recovery priorities and finer-scale strategies for regional reintroductions. The model predicts that Yellowstone and central Idaho, where wolves have recently been ...

  2. Spatially explicit watershed modeling: tracking water, mercury and nitrogen in multiple systems under diverse conditions

    EPA Science Inventory

    Environmental decision-making and the influences of various stressors, such as landscape and climate changes on water quantity and quality, requires the application of environmental modeling. Spatially explicit environmental and watershed-scale models using GIS as a base framewor...

  3. On Spatially Explicit Models of Cholera Epidemics: Hydrologic controls, environmental drivers, human-mediated transmissions (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rinaldo, A.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2010-12-01

    A recently proposed model for cholera epidemics is examined. The model accounts for local communities of susceptibles and infectives in a spatially explicit arrangement of nodes linked by networks having different topologies. The vehicle of infection (Vibrio cholerae) is transported through the network links which are thought of as hydrological connections among susceptible communities. The mathematical tools used are borrowed from general schemes of reactive transport on river networks acting as the environmental matrix for the circulation and mixing of water-borne pathogens. The results of a large-scale application to the Kwa Zulu (Natal) epidemics of 2001-2002 will be discussed. Useful theoretical results derived in the spatially-explicit context will also be reviewed (like e.g. the exact derivation of the speed of propagation for traveling fronts of epidemics on regular lattices endowed with uniform population density). Network effects will be discussed. The analysis of the limit case of uniformly distributed population density proves instrumental in establishing the overall conditions for the relevance of spatially explicit models. To that extent, it is shown that the ratio between spreading and disease outbreak timescales proves the crucial parameter. The relevance of our results lies in the major differences potentially arising between the predictions of spatially explicit models and traditional compartmental models of the SIR-like type. Our results suggest that in many cases of real-life epidemiological interest timescales of disease dynamics may trigger outbreaks that significantly depart from the predictions of compartmental models. Finally, a view on further developments includes: hydrologically improved aquatic reservoir models for pathogens; human mobility patterns affecting disease propagation; double-peak emergence and seasonality in the spatially explicit epidemic context.

  4. Spatial Working Memory Interferes with Explicit, but Not Probabilistic Cuing of Spatial Attention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Won, Bo-Yeong; Jiang, Yuhong V.

    2015-01-01

    Recent empirical and theoretical work has depicted a close relationship between visual attention and visual working memory. For example, rehearsal in spatial working memory depends on spatial attention, whereas adding a secondary spatial working memory task impairs attentional deployment in visual search. These findings have led to the proposal…

  5. Reenvisioning cross-sectional at-a-station hydraulic geometry as spatially explicit hydraulic topography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez, R. L.; Pasternack, G. B.

    2015-10-01

    Transect-based hydraulic geometry is well established but depends on a complex set of subjective fieldwork and computational decisions that sometimes go unexplained. As a result, it is ripe for reenvisioning in the light of the emergence of meter-scale, spatially explicit data and algorithmic geospatial analysis. This study developed and evaluated a new spatially explicit method for analyzing discharge-dependent hydraulics coined 'hydraulic topography' that not only increases accuracy but also eliminates several sample- and assumption-based inconsistencies. Using data and hydrodynamic simulations from the regulated, gravel-cobble-bed lower Yuba River in California, power functions were fitted to discharge-dependent average width, depth, and depth-weighted velocity for three spatial scales and then their corresponding exponents and coefficients were compared across scales and against ones computed using traditional approaches. Average hydraulic values from cross sections at the segment scale spanned up to 1.5 orders of magnitude for a given discharge. Transect-determined exponents for reach-scale depth and velocity relations were consistently over- and underestimated, respectively, relative to the hydraulic topography benchmark. Overall, 73% of cross-sectional power regression parameters assessed fell between 10 and 50 absolute percent error with respect to the spatially explicit hydraulic topography baseline. Although traditional transect-based sampling may be viable for certain uses, percent errors of this magnitude could compromise engineering applications in river management and training works.

  6. Heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of desertification in spatially explicit data

    PubMed Central

    Seekell, David A; Dakos, Vasilis

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts are abrupt transitions between alternate ecosystem states including desertification in arid regions due to drought or overgrazing. Regime shifts may be preceded by statistical anomalies such as increased autocorrelation, indicating declining resilience and warning of an impending shift. Tests for conditional heteroskedasticity, a type of clustered variance, have proven powerful leading indicators for regime shifts in time series data, but an analogous indicator for spatial data has not been evaluated. A spatial analog for conditional heteroskedasticity might be especially useful in arid environments where spatial interactions are critical in structuring ecosystem pattern and process. We tested the efficacy of a test for spatial heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of regime shifts with simulated data from spatially extended vegetation models with regular and scale-free patterning. These models simulate shifts from extensive vegetative cover to bare, desert-like conditions. The magnitude of spatial heteroskedasticity increased consistently as the modeled systems approached a regime shift from vegetated to desert state. Relative spatial autocorrelation, spatial heteroskedasticity increased earlier and more consistently. We conclude that tests for spatial heteroskedasticity can contribute to the growing toolbox of early warning indicators for regime shifts analyzed with spatially explicit data. PMID:26078855

  7. Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, B.; O'Neill, B. C.

    2016-08-01

    The projected size and spatial distribution of the future population are important drivers of global change and key determinants of exposure and vulnerability to hazards. Spatial demographic projections are widely used as inputs to spatial projections of land use, energy use, and emissions, as well as to assessments of the impacts of extreme events, sea level rise, and other climate-related outcomes. To date, however, there are very few global-scale, spatially explicit population projections, and those that do exist are often based on simple scaling or trend extrapolation. Here we present a new set of global, spatially explicit population scenarios that are consistent with the new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed to facilitate global change research. We use a parameterized gravity-based downscaling model to produce projections of spatial population change that are quantitatively consistent with national population and urbanization projections for the SSPs and qualitatively consistent with assumptions in the SSP narratives regarding spatial development patterns. We show that the five SSPs lead to substantially different spatial population outcomes at the continental, national, and sub-national scale. In general, grid cell-level outcomes are most influenced by national-level population change, second by urbanization rate, and third by assumptions about the spatial style of development. However, the relative importance of these factors is a function of the magnitude of the projected change in total population and urbanization for each country and across SSPs. We also demonstrate variation in outcomes considering the example of population existing in a low-elevation coastal zone under alternative scenarios.

  8. Using a spatially explicit analysis model to evaluate spatial variation of corn yield

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Spatial irrigation of agricultural crops using site-specific variable-rate irrigation (VRI) systems is beginning to have wide-spread acceptance. However, optimizing the management of these VRI systems to conserve natural resources and increase profitability requires an understanding of the spatial ...

  9. Locally adaptive, spatially explicit projection of US population for 2030 and 2050

    PubMed Central

    McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Edward A.; Huynh, Timmy; Bhaduri, Budhendra L.

    2015-01-01

    Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high-resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically informed spatial distribution of projected population of the contiguous United States for 2030 and 2050, depicting one of many possible population futures. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection model departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modeled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the US Census’s projection methodology, with the US Census’s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include incorporating multiple various scenario-driven events to produce a range of spatially explicit population futures for suitability modeling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations. PMID:25605882

  10. Spatially Explicit Forest Characteristics of Europe Integrating NFI and Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno, A. L. S.; Neumann, M.; Hasenauer, H.

    2015-12-01

    Seeing the forest through the trees in Europe is easier said than done. European forest data is nationally collected using different methodologies and sampling techniques. This data can be difficult to obtain, and if made available often lacks spatial information and might only be provided in the local language. This makes analyzing forests in Europe difficult. The reporting systems of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the European Forestry Institute (EFI) permit several acquisition and calculation methodologies which lead to difficulties in comparing country level data. We have collected spatially explicit national forest inventory (NFI) data from 13 countries in Europe and harmonized these datasets. Using this data along with remote sensing data products we have derived spatially explicit forest characteristics maps of Europe on a 0.017o resolution representing the time period 2000-2010. We have created maps for every NFI variable in our dataset including carbon stock, forest age, forest height, volume, basal area, etc. Cross-validating this data shows that this method produces accurate results for most variables while variables pertaining to forest cover type have lower accuracy. This data is in line with data from FAO and EFI in most cases. However, our dataset allows us to identify large incongruities quickly in FAO and EFI data. Our spatially explicit data is also accurate at predicting forest characteristics in areas where we have no NFI data. This data set provides a consistent harmonized view of the state of European forests in a way hitherto not possible, giving researchers the ability to analyze forests spatially across the entire continent. This method can also be useful for those researching areas that have little or no NFI data or areas where data acquisition is difficult or impossible. This data can also quickly give policy makers a greater view of how forest management practices have shaped our current European forests.

  11. Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector-borne disease management in particular

  12. Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) Using Unstructured Sampling Data.

    PubMed

    Broekhuis, Femke; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M

    2016-01-01

    Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed 'hotspots' of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species.

  13. On Spatially Explicit Models of Epidemic and Endemic Cholera: The Haiti and Lake Kivu Case Studies.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rinaldo, A.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Finger, F.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2014-12-01

    The first part of the Lecture deals with the predictive ability of mechanistic models for the Haitian cholera epidemic. Predictive models of epidemic cholera need to resolve at suitable aggregation levels spatial data pertaining to local communities, epidemiological records, hydrologic drivers, waterways, patterns of human mobility and proxies of exposure rates. A formal model comparison framework provides a quantitative assessment of the explanatory and predictive abilities of various model settings with different spatial aggregation levels. Intensive computations and objective model comparisons show that parsimonious spatially explicit models accounting for spatial connections have superior explanatory power than spatially disconnected ones for short-to intermediate calibration windows. In general, spatially connected models show better predictive ability than disconnected ones. We suggest limits and validity of the various approaches and discuss the pathway towards the development of case-specific predictive tools in the context of emergency management. The second part deals with approaches suitable to describe patterns of endemic cholera. Cholera outbreaks have been reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo since the 1970s. Here we employ a spatially explicit, inhomogeneous Markov chain model to describe cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of lake Kivu. Remotely sensed datasets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers in addition to baseline seasonality. The effect of human mobility is also modelled mechanistically. We test several models on a multi-year dataset of reported cholera cases. Fourteen models, accounting for different environmental drivers, are selected in calibration. Among these, the one accounting for seasonality, El Nino Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility outperforms the others in cross-validation.

  14. Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) Using Unstructured Sampling Data

    PubMed Central

    Broekhuis, Femke; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.

    2016-01-01

    Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed ‘hotspots’ of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species. PMID:27135614

  15. Spatially-explicit bioaccumulation modeling in aquatic environments: Results from two demonstration sites.

    PubMed

    von Stackelberg, Katherine; Williams, Marc A; Clough, Jonathan; Johnson, Mark S

    2017-03-11

    Bioaccumulation models quantify the relationship between sediment and water exposure concentrations and resulting tissue levels of chemicals in aquatic organisms, and represent a key link in the suite of tools used to support decision making at contaminated sediment sites. Predicted concentrations in the aquatic food web provide exposure estimates for human health and ecological risk assessments, which, in turn, provide risk-based frameworks for evaluating potential remedial activities and other management alternatives based on the fish consumption pathway. Despite the widespread use of bioaccumulation models to support remedial decision-making, concerns remain about the predictive power of these models. A review of the available literature finds the increased mathematical complexity of typical bioaccumulation model applications is not matched by the deterministic exposure concentrations used to drive the models. We tested a spatially explicit exposure model (FishRand) at two nominally contaminated sites and compared results to estimates of bioaccumulation based on conventional, non-spatial techniques and monitoring data. Differences in predicted fish tissue concentrations across applications were evident, although these demonstration sites were only mildly contaminated and would not warrant management actions on the basis of fish consumption. Nonetheless, predicted tissue concentrations based on the spatially-explicit exposure characterization consistently outperformed conventional, non-spatial techniques across a variety of model performance metrics. These results demonstrate the improved predictive power as well as greater flexibility in evaluating the impacts of food web exposure and fish foraging behavior in a heterogeneous exposure environment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  16. A Hybrid Wetland Map for China: A Synergistic Approach Using Census and Spatially Explicit Datasets

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Kun; You, Liangzhi; Liu, Junguo; Zhang, Mingxiang

    2012-01-01

    Wetlands play important ecological, economic, and cultural roles in societies around the world. However, wetland degradation has become a serious ecological issue, raising the global sustainability concern. An accurate wetland map is essential for wetland management. Here we used a fuzzy method to create a hybrid wetland map for China through the combination of five existing wetlands datasets, including four spatially explicit wetland distribution data and one wetland census. Our results show the total wetland area is 384,864 km2, 4.08% of China’s national surface area. The hybrid wetland map also shows spatial distribution of wetlands with a spatial resolution of 1 km. The reliability of the map is demonstrated by comparing it with spatially explicit datasets on lakes and reservoirs. The hybrid wetland map is by far the first wetland mapping that is consistent with the statistical data at the national and provincial levels in China. It provides a benchmark map for research on wetland protection and management. The method presented here is applicable for not only wetland mapping but also for other thematic mapping in China and beyond. PMID:23110105

  17. A hybrid wetland map for China: a synergistic approach using census and spatially explicit datasets.

    PubMed

    Ma, Kun; You, Liangzhi; Liu, Junguo; Zhang, Mingxiang

    2012-01-01

    Wetlands play important ecological, economic, and cultural roles in societies around the world. However, wetland degradation has become a serious ecological issue, raising the global sustainability concern. An accurate wetland map is essential for wetland management. Here we used a fuzzy method to create a hybrid wetland map for China through the combination of five existing wetlands datasets, including four spatially explicit wetland distribution data and one wetland census. Our results show the total wetland area is 384,864 km(2), 4.08% of China's national surface area. The hybrid wetland map also shows spatial distribution of wetlands with a spatial resolution of 1 km. The reliability of the map is demonstrated by comparing it with spatially explicit datasets on lakes and reservoirs. The hybrid wetland map is by far the first wetland mapping that is consistent with the statistical data at the national and provincial levels in China. It provides a benchmark map for research on wetland protection and management. The method presented here is applicable for not only wetland mapping but also for other thematic mapping in China and beyond.

  18. Interference-free acquisition of overlapping sequences in explicit spatial memory.

    PubMed

    Eggert, Thomas; Drever, Johannes; Straube, Andreas

    2014-04-01

    Some types of human sequential memory, e.g. the acquisition of a new composition by a trained musician, seem to be very efficient in extending the length of a memorized sequence and in flexible reuse of known subsequences in a newly acquired sequential context. This implies that interference between known and newly acquired subsequences can be avoided even when learning a sequence which is a partial mutation of a known sequence. It is known that established motor sequences do not have such flexibility. Using learning of deferred imitation, the current study investigates the flexibility of explicit spatial memory by quantifying the interferences between successively acquired, partially overlapping sequences. After learning a spatial sequence on day 1, this sequence was progressively modified on day 2. On day 3, a retention test was performed with both the initial and the modified sequence. The results show that subjects performed very well on day 1 and day 2. No spatial interference between changed and unchanged targets was observed during the stepwise progressive modification of the reproduced sequence. Surprisingly, subjects performed well on both sequences on day 3. Comparison with a control experiment without intermediate mutation training showed that the initial training on day 1 did not proactively interfere with the retention of the modified sequence on day 3. Vice versa, the mutation training on day 2 did not interfere retroactively with the retention of the original sequence as tested on day 3. The results underline the flexibility in acquiring explicit spatial memory.

  19. Spatially explicit cholera model: effects of population, water resources and health conditions distributions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2009-04-01

    Cholera epidemics are still a major public health concern to date in many areas of the world. In order to understand and forecast cholera outbreaks, one of the most important factors is the role played by the environmental matrix in which the disease spreads. The environmental matrix is constituted by different human communities and their interconnections. Each community is characterized by its spatial position, population size, water resources availability and hygiene conditions. By implementing a spatially explicit cholera model we seek the effects on epidemic dynamics of: i) the topology and metrics of the pathogens pathways that connect different communities; ii) the spatial distribution of the population size; and iii) the spatial distributions of water resources and public health conditions, and how they vary with population size. We further extend the model by deriving the speed of propagation of traveling fronts in the case of uniformly distributed systems for different topologies: one and two dimensional lattices and river networks. The derivation of the spreading celerity proves instrumental in establishing the overall conditions for the relevance of spatially explicit models. The conditions are sought by comparison between spreading and disease timescales. Consider a cholera epidemic that starts from a point and spreads throughout a finite size system, it is possible to identify two different timescales: i) the spreading timescale, that is the time needed for the disease to spread and involve all the communities in the system; and ii) the epidemic timescale, defined by the duration of the epidemic in a single community. While the latter mainly depends on biological factors, the former is controlled also by the geometry of the environmental matrix. If the epidemics timescales are comparable or larger than pathogens' spreading timescales, one expects that the spatial variability does not play a role and the system may be approximated by a well

  20. Fire in the Brazilian Amazon: A Spatially Explicit Model for Policy Impact Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arima, Eugenio Y.; Simmons, Cynthia S.; Walker, Robert T.; Cochrane, Mark A.

    2007-01-01

    This article implements a spatially explicit model to estimate the probability of forest and agricultural fires in the Brazilian Amazon. We innovate by using variables that reflect farmgate prices of beef and soy, and also provide a conceptual model of managed and unmanaged fires in order to simulate the impact of road paving, cattle exports, and conservation area designation on the occurrence of fire. Our analysis shows that fire is positively correlated with the price of beef and soy, and that the creation of new conservation units may offset the negative environmental impacts caused by the increasing number of fire events associated with early stages of frontier development.

  1. Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

    SciTech Connect

    McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.; Huynh, Timmy N.; Bhaduri, Budhendra L.

    2015-02-03

    Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection model departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.

  2. Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

    DOE PAGES

    McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.; ...

    2015-02-03

    Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

  3. Graph-based analysis of connectivity in spatially-explicit population models: HexSim and the Connectivity Analysis Toolkit

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background / Question / Methods Planning for the recovery of threatened species is increasingly informed by spatially-explicit population models. However, using simulation model results to guide land management decisions can be difficult due to the volume and complexity of model...

  4. Forward-in-Time, Spatially Explicit Modeling Software to Simulate Genetic Lineages Under Selection

    PubMed Central

    Currat, Mathias; Gerbault, Pascale; Di, Da; Nunes, José M.; Sanchez-Mazas, Alicia

    2015-01-01

    SELECTOR is a software package for studying the evolution of multiallelic genes under balancing or positive selection while simulating complex evolutionary scenarios that integrate demographic growth and migration in a spatially explicit population framework. Parameters can be varied both in space and time to account for geographical, environmental, and cultural heterogeneity. SELECTOR can be used within an approximate Bayesian computation estimation framework. We first describe the principles of SELECTOR and validate the algorithms by comparing its outputs for simple models with theoretical expectations. Then, we show how it can be used to investigate genetic differentiation of loci under balancing selection in interconnected demes with spatially heterogeneous gene flow. We identify situations in which balancing selection reduces genetic differentiation between population groups compared with neutrality and explain conflicting outcomes observed for human leukocyte antigen loci. These results and three previously published applications demonstrate that SELECTOR is efficient and robust for building insight into human settlement history and evolution. PMID:26949332

  5. Spatial-explicit modeling of social vulnerability to malaria in East Africa

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite efforts in eradication and control, malaria remains a global challenge, particularly affecting vulnerable groups. Despite the recession in malaria cases, previously malaria free areas are increasingly confronted with epidemics as a result of changing environmental and socioeconomic conditions. Next to modeling transmission intensities and probabilities, integrated spatial methods targeting the complex interplay of factors that contribute to social vulnerability are required to effectively reduce malaria burden. We propose an integrative method for mapping relative levels of social vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner to support the identification of intervention measures. Methods Based on a literature review, a holistic risk and vulnerability framework has been developed to guide the assessment of social vulnerability to water-related vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in the context of changing environmental and societal conditions. Building on the framework, this paper applies spatially explicit modeling for delineating homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria in eastern Africa, while taking into account expert knowledge for weighting the single vulnerability indicators. To assess the influence of the selected indicators on the final index a local sensitivity analysis is carried out. Results Results indicate that high levels of malaria vulnerability are concentrated in the highlands, where immunity within the population is currently low. Additionally, regions with a lack of access to education and health services aggravate vulnerability. Lower values can be found in regions with relatively low poverty, low population pressure, low conflict density and reduced contributions from the biological susceptibility domain. Overall, the factors characterizing vulnerability vary spatially in the region. The vulnerability index reveals a high level of robustness in regard to the final choice of input datasets, with the exception of the

  6. Examining the role of individual movement in promoting coexistence in a spatially explicit prisoner's dilemma.

    PubMed

    Burgess, Andrew E F; Lorenzi, Tommaso; Schofield, Pietà G; Hubbard, Stephen F; Chaplain, Mark A J

    2017-02-27

    The emergence of cooperation is a major conundrum of evolutionary biology. To unravel this evolutionary riddle, several models have been developed within the theoretical framework of spatial game theory, focussing on the interactions between two general classes of player, "cooperators" and "defectors". Generally, explicit movement in the spatial domain is not considered in these models, with strategies moving via imitation or through colonisation of neighbouring sites. We present here a spatially explicit stochastic individual-based model in which pure cooperators and defectors undergo random motion via diffusion and also chemotaxis guided by the gradient of a semiochemical. Individual movement rules are derived from an underlying system of reaction-diffusion-taxis partial differential equations which describes the dynamics of the local number of individuals and the concentration of the semiochemical. Local interactions are governed by the payoff matrix of the classical prisoner's dilemma, and accumulated payoffs are translated into offspring. We investigate the cases of both synchronous and non-synchronous generations. Focussing on an ecological scenario where defectors are parasitic on cooperators, we find that random motion and semiochemical sensing bring about self-generated patterns in which resident cooperators and parasitic defectors can coexist in proportions that fluctuate about non-zero values. Remarkably, coexistence emerges as a genuine consequence of the natural tendency of cooperators to aggregate into clusters, without the need for them to find physical shelter or outrun the parasitic defectors. This provides further evidence that spatial clustering enhances the benefits of mutual cooperation and plays a crucial role in preserving cooperative behaviours.

  7. SEHR-ECHO v1.0: a Spatially Explicit Hydrologic Response model for ecohydrologic applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaefli, B.; Nicótina, L.; Imfeld, C.; Da Ronco, P.; Bertuzzo, E.; Rinaldo, A.

    2014-11-01

    This paper presents the Spatially Explicit Hydrologic Response (SEHR) model developed at the Laboratory of Ecohydrology of the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne for the simulation of hydrological processes at the catchment scale. The key concept of the model is the formulation of water transport by geomorphologic travel time distributions through gravity-driven transitions among geomorphic states: the mobilization of water (and possibly dissolved solutes) is simulated at the subcatchment scale and the resulting responses are convolved with the travel paths distribution within the river network to obtain the hydrologic response at the catchment outlet. The model thus breaks down the complexity of the hydrologic response into an explicit geomorphological combination of dominant spatial patterns of precipitation input and of hydrologic process controls. Nonstationarity and nonlinearity effects are tackled through soil moisture dynamics in the active soil layer. We present here the basic model set-up for precipitation-runoff simulation and a detailed discussion of its parameter estimation and of its performance for the Dischma River (Switzerland), a snow-dominated catchment with a small glacier cover.

  8. Spatially explicit decision support for selecting translocation areas for Mojave desert tortoises

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heaton, Jill S.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Inman, Richard D.; Davenport, Frank; Leuteritz, Thomas E.; Medica, Philip A.; Strout, Nathan W.; Burgess, Paul A.; Benvenuti, Lisa

    2008-01-01

    Spatially explicit decision support systems are assuming an increasing role in natural resource and conservation management. In order for these systems to be successful, however, they must address real-world management problems with input from both the scientific and management communities. The National Training Center at Fort Irwin, California, has expanded its training area, encroaching U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service critical habitat set aside for the Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii), a federally threatened species. Of all the mitigation measures proposed to offset expansion, the most challenging to implement was the selection of areas most feasible for tortoise translocation. We developed an objective, open, scientifically defensible spatially explicit decision support system to evaluate translocation potential within the Western Mojave Recovery Unit for tortoise populations under imminent threat from military expansion. Using up to a total of 10 biological, anthropogenic, and/or logistical criteria, seven alternative translocation scenarios were developed. The final translocation model was a consensus model between the seven scenarios. Within the final model, six potential translocation areas were identified.

  9. [Applicability analysis of spatially explicit model of leaf litter in evergreen broad-leaved forests].

    PubMed

    Zhao, Qing-Qing; Liu, He-Ming; Jonard, Mathieu; Wang, Zhang-Hua; Wang, Xi-Hua

    2014-11-01

    The spatially explicit model of leaf litter can help to understand its dispersal process, which is very important to predict the distribution pattern of leaves on the surface of the earth. In this paper, the spatially explicit model of leaf litter was developed for 20 tree species using litter trap data from the mapped forest plot in an evergreen broad-leaved forest in Tiantong, Zhejiang Pro- vince, eastern China. Applicability of the model was analyzed. The model assumed an allometric equation between diameter at breast height (DBH) and leaf litter amount, and the leaf litter declined exponentially with the distance. Model parameters were estimated by the maximum likelihood method. Results showed that the predicted and measured leaf litter amounts were significantly correlated, but the prediction accuracies varied widely for the different tree species, averaging at 49.3% and ranging from 16.0% and 74.0%. Model qualities of tree species significantly correlated with the standard deviations of the leaf litter amount per trap, DBH of the tree species and the average leaf dry mass of tree species. There were several ways to improve the forecast precision of the model, such as installing the litterfall traps according to the distribution of the tree to cover the different classes of the DBH and distance apart from the parent trees, determining the optimal dispersal function of each tree species, and optimizing the existing dispersal function.

  10. Using spatially explicit surveillance models to provide confidence in the eradication of an invasive ant

    PubMed Central

    Ward, Darren F.; Anderson, Dean P.; Barron, Mandy C.

    2016-01-01

    Effective detection plays an important role in the surveillance and management of invasive species. Invasive ants are very difficult to eradicate and are prone to imperfect detection because of their small size and cryptic nature. Here we demonstrate the use of spatially explicit surveillance models to estimate the probability that Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) have been eradicated from an offshore island site, given their absence across four surveys and three surveillance methods, conducted since ant control was applied. The probability of eradication increased sharply as each survey was conducted. Using all surveys and surveillance methods combined, the overall median probability of eradication of Argentine ants was 0.96. There was a high level of confidence in this result, with a high Credible Interval Value of 0.87. Our results demonstrate the value of spatially explicit surveillance models for the likelihood of eradication of Argentine ants. We argue that such models are vital to give confidence in eradication programs, especially from highly valued conservation areas such as offshore islands. PMID:27721491

  11. Large-scale, spatially-explicit test of the refuge strategy for delaying insecticide resistance

    PubMed Central

    Carrière, Yves; Ellers-Kirk, Christa; Hartfield, Kyle; Larocque, Guillaume; Degain, Ben; Dutilleul, Pierre; Dennehy, Timothy J.; Marsh, Stuart E.; Crowder, David W.; Li, Xianchun; Ellsworth, Peter C.; Naranjo, Steven E.; Palumbo, John C.; Fournier, Al; Antilla, Larry; Tabashnik, Bruce E.

    2012-01-01

    The refuge strategy is used worldwide to delay the evolution of pest resistance to insecticides that are either sprayed or produced by transgenic Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) crops. This strategy is based on the idea that refuges of host plants where pests are not exposed to an insecticide promote survival of susceptible pests. Despite widespread adoption of this approach, large-scale tests of the refuge strategy have been problematic. Here we tested the refuge strategy with 8 y of data on refuges and resistance to the insecticide pyriproxyfen in 84 populations of the sweetpotato whitefly (Bemisia tabaci) from cotton fields in central Arizona. We found that spatial variation in resistance to pyriproxyfen within each year was not affected by refuges of melons or alfalfa near cotton fields. However, resistance was negatively associated with the area of cotton refuges and positively associated with the area of cotton treated with pyriproxyfen. A statistical model based on the first 4 y of data, incorporating the spatial distribution of cotton treated and not treated with pyriproxyfen, adequately predicted the spatial variation in resistance observed in the last 4 y of the study, confirming that cotton refuges delayed resistance and treated cotton fields accelerated resistance. By providing a systematic assessment of the effectiveness of refuges and the scale of their effects, the spatially explicit approach applied here could be useful for testing and improving the refuge strategy in other crop–pest systems. PMID:22215605

  12. Spatially explicit inference for open populations: estimating demographic parameters from camera-trap studies.

    PubMed

    Gardner, Beth; Reppucci, Juan; Lucherini, Mauro; Royle, J Andrew

    2010-11-01

    We develop a hierarchical capture-recapture model for demographically open populations when auxiliary spatial information about location of capture is obtained. Such spatial capture-recapture data arise from studies based on camera trapping, DNA sampling, and other situations in which a spatial array of devices records encounters of unique individuals. We integrate an individual-based formulation of a Jolly-Seber type model with recently developed spatially explicit capture-recapture models to estimate density and demographic parameters for survival and recruitment. We adopt a Bayesian framework for inference under this model using the method of data augmentation which is implemented in the software program WinBUGS. The model was motivated by a camera trapping study of Pampas cats Leopardus colocolo from Argentina, which we present as an illustration of the model in this paper. We provide estimates of density and the first quantitative assessment of vital rates for the Pampas cat in the High Andes. The precision of these estimates is poor due likely to the sparse data set. Unlike conventional inference methods which usually rely on asymptotic arguments, Bayesian inferences are valid in arbitrary sample sizes, and thus the method is ideal for the study of rare or endangered species for which small data sets are typical.

  13. Hydroclimatology of dual-peak annual cholera incidence: Insights from a spatially explicit model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-03-01

    Cholera incidence in some regions of the Indian subcontinent may exhibit two annual peaks although the main environmental drivers that have been linked to the disease (e.g., sea surface temperature, zooplankton abundance, river discharge) peak once per year during the summer. An empirical hydroclimatological explanation relating cholera transmission to river flows and to the disease spatial spreading has been recently proposed. We specifically support and substantiate mechanistically such hypothesis by means of a spatially explicit model of cholera transmission. Our framework directly accounts for the role of a model river network in transporting and redistributing cholera bacteria among human communities as well as for spatial and temporal annual fluctuations of river flows. The model is forced by seasonal environmental drivers, namely river flow, temperature and chlorophyll concentration in the coastal environment, a proxy for Vibrio cholerae concentration. Our results show that these drivers may suffice to generate dual-peak cholera prevalence patterns for proper combinations of timescales involved in pathogen transport, hydrologic variability and disease unfolding. The model explains the possible occurrence of spatial patterns of cholera incidence characterized by a spring peak confined to coastal areas and a fall peak involving inland regions. Our modeling framework suggests insights on how environmental drivers concert the generation of complex spatiotemporal infections and proposes an explanation for the different cholera patterns (dual or single annual peaks) exhibited by regions that share similar hydroclimatological forcings.

  14. Spatially explicit inference for open populations: estimating demographic parameters from camera-trap studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gardner, Beth; Reppucci, Juan; Lucherini, Mauro; Royle, J. Andrew

    2010-01-01

    We develop a hierarchical capture–recapture model for demographically open populations when auxiliary spatial information about location of capture is obtained. Such spatial capture–recapture data arise from studies based on camera trapping, DNA sampling, and other situations in which a spatial array of devices records encounters of unique individuals. We integrate an individual-based formulation of a Jolly-Seber type model with recently developed spatially explicit capture–recapture models to estimate density and demographic parameters for survival and recruitment. We adopt a Bayesian framework for inference under this model using the method of data augmentation which is implemented in the software program WinBUGS. The model was motivated by a camera trapping study of Pampas cats Leopardus colocolo from Argentina, which we present as an illustration of the model in this paper. We provide estimates of density and the first quantitative assessment of vital rates for the Pampas cat in the High Andes. The precision of these estimates is poor due likely to the sparse data set. Unlike conventional inference methods which usually rely on asymptotic arguments, Bayesian inferences are valid in arbitrary sample sizes, and thus the method is ideal for the study of rare or endangered species for which small data sets are typical.

  15. Relative contributions of spatial weighting, explicit knowledge and proprioception to hand localisation during positional ambiguity.

    PubMed

    Bellan, Valeria; Gilpin, Helen R; Stanton, Tasha R; Dagsdóttir, Lilja K; Gallace, Alberto; Lorimer Moseley, G

    2017-02-01

    When vision and proprioception are rendered incongruent during a hand localisation task, vision is initially weighted more than proprioception in determining location, and proprioception gains more weighting over time. However, it is not known whether, under these incongruency conditions, particular areas of space are also weighted more heavily than others, nor whether explicit knowledge of the sensory incongruence (i.e. disconfirming the perceived location of the hand) modulates the effect. Here, we hypothesised that both non-informative inputs coming from one side of space and explicit knowledge of sensory incongruence would modulate perceived location of the limb. Specifically, we expected spatial weighting to shift hand localisation towards the weighted area of space, and we expected greater weighting of proprioceptive input once perceived location was demonstrated to be inaccurate. We manipulated spatial weighting using an established auditory cueing paradigm (Experiment 1, n = 18) and sensory incongruence using the 'disappearing hand trick' (Experiment 2, n = 9). Our first hypothesis was not supported-spatial weighting did not modulate hand localisation. Our second hypothesis was only partially supported-disconfirmation of hand position did lead to more accurate localisations, even if participants were still unaware of their hand position. This raised the possibility that rather than disconfirmation, a simple movement of the hand in view could update the sensory-motor system, by immediately increasing the weighting of proprioceptive input relative to visual input. This third hypothesis was then confirmed (Experiment 3, n = 9). These results suggest that hand localisation is robust in the face of differential weighting of space, but open to modulation in a modality-specific manner, when one sense (vision) is rendered inaccurate.

  16. A spatially explicit reconstruction of forest cover in China over 1700-2000

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Fanneng; Li, Shicheng; Zhang, Xuezhen

    2015-08-01

    The spatially explicit reconstruction of historical forest plays an important role in understanding human modifications of land surfaces and its environmental effects. Based on an analysis of the forest change history of China, we devised a reconstruction method for the historical forest cover in China. The core idea of the method is that the lands with high suitability for cultivation will be cultivated and deforested first, spreading to marginal lands with lower suitability for cultivation. By determining the possible maximum distribution extent of the forest, as well as devising the land suitability for cultivation assessment model and provincial forest area allocation model, we created 10 km forest cover maps of China for the years 1700 to 2000 with 10 year intervals. By comparison with satellite-based data in 2000, we found that the grids within 25% differences account for as much as 66.07% of all grids. The comparison with the historical documents-based data in northeast China indicated that the number of counties within 30% relative differences is 99, accounting for 74.44% of all counties. Therefore, the forest area allocation model we devised can accurately reproduce the spatial patterns of historical forest cover in China. Our reconstruction indicates that from 1700 to the 1960s, the deforestation mainly occurred in southwest China, the hilly regions of south China, the southeast of Gansu province, and northeast China; from the 1960s to 2000, the reforestation occurred in most traditional forested regions of China, particularly in the Tibet Plateau, hilly regions of south China and the Greater Khingan Mountains. The spatially explicit forest cover data sets we reconstructed can be used in global or regional climatic models to study the impact of land cover change on climate change.

  17. Mapping of soil organic carbon stocks for spatially explicit assessments of climate change mitigation potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vågen, Tor-Gunnar; Winowiecki, Leigh A.

    2013-03-01

    Current methods for assessing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are generally not well suited for understanding variations in SOC stocks in landscapes. This is due to the tedious and time-consuming nature of the sampling methods most commonly used to collect bulk density cores, which limits repeatability across large areas, particularly where information is needed on the spatial dynamics of SOC stocks at scales relevant to management and for spatially explicit targeting of climate change mitigation options. In the current study, approaches were explored for (i) field-based estimates of SOC stocks and (ii) mapping of SOC stocks at moderate to high resolution on the basis of data from four widely contrasting ecosystems in East Africa. Estimated SOC stocks for 0-30 cm depth varied both within and between sites, with site averages ranging from 2 to 8 kg m-2. The differences in SOC stocks were determined in part by rainfall, but more importantly by sand content. Results also indicate that managing soil erosion is a key strategy for reducing SOC loss and hence in mitigation of climate change in these landscapes. Further, maps were developed on the basis of satellite image reflectance data with multiple R-squared values of 0.65 for the independent validation data set, showing variations in SOC stocks across these landscapes. These maps allow for spatially explicit targeting of potential climate change mitigation efforts through soil carbon sequestration, which is one option for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Further, the maps can be used to monitor the impacts of such mitigation efforts over time.

  18. A Metapopulation Approach to African Lion (Panthera leo) Conservation

    PubMed Central

    Dolrenry, Stephanie; Stenglein, Jennifer; Hazzah, Leela; Lutz, R. Scott; Frank, Laurence

    2014-01-01

    Due to anthropogenic pressures, African lion (Panthera leo) populations in Kenya and Tanzania are increasingly limited to fragmented populations. Lions living on isolated habitat patches exist in a matrix of less-preferred habitat. A framework of habitat patches within a less-suitable matrix describes a metapopulation. Metapopulation analysis can provide insight into the dynamics of each population patch in reference to the system as a whole, and these analyses often guide conservation planning. We present the first metapopulation analysis of African lions. We use a spatially-realistic model to investigate how sex-biased dispersal abilities of lions affect patch occupancy and also examine whether human densities surrounding the remaining lion populations affect the metapopulation as a whole. Our results indicate that male lion dispersal ability strongly contributes to population connectivity while the lesser dispersal ability of females could be a limiting factor. When populations go extinct, recolonization will not occur if distances between patches exceed female dispersal ability or if females are not able to survive moving across the matrix. This has profound implications for the overall metapopulation; the female models showed an intrinsic extinction rate from five-fold to a hundred-fold higher than the male models. Patch isolation is a consideration for even the largest lion populations. As lion populations continue to decline and with local extinctions occurring, female dispersal ability and the proximity to the nearest lion population are serious considerations for the recolonization of individual populations and for broader conservation efforts. PMID:24505385

  19. A metapopulation approach to African lion (Panthera leo) conservation.

    PubMed

    Dolrenry, Stephanie; Stenglein, Jennifer; Hazzah, Leela; Lutz, R Scott; Frank, Laurence

    2014-01-01

    Due to anthropogenic pressures, African lion (Panthera leo) populations in Kenya and Tanzania are increasingly limited to fragmented populations. Lions living on isolated habitat patches exist in a matrix of less-preferred habitat. A framework of habitat patches within a less-suitable matrix describes a metapopulation. Metapopulation analysis can provide insight into the dynamics of each population patch in reference to the system as a whole, and these analyses often guide conservation planning. We present the first metapopulation analysis of African lions. We use a spatially-realistic model to investigate how sex-biased dispersal abilities of lions affect patch occupancy and also examine whether human densities surrounding the remaining lion populations affect the metapopulation as a whole. Our results indicate that male lion dispersal ability strongly contributes to population connectivity while the lesser dispersal ability of females could be a limiting factor. When populations go extinct, recolonization will not occur if distances between patches exceed female dispersal ability or if females are not able to survive moving across the matrix. This has profound implications for the overall metapopulation; the female models showed an intrinsic extinction rate from five-fold to a hundred-fold higher than the male models. Patch isolation is a consideration for even the largest lion populations. As lion populations continue to decline and with local extinctions occurring, female dispersal ability and the proximity to the nearest lion population are serious considerations for the recolonization of individual populations and for broader conservation efforts.

  20. Epidemic fronts in complex networks with metapopulation structure

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Infection dynamics have been studied extensively on complex networks, yielding insight into the effects of heterogeneity in contact patterns on disease spread. Somewhat separately, metapopulations have provided a paradigm for modeling systems with spatially extended and “patchy” organization. In thi...

  1. Explicit off-line criteria for stable accurate time filtering of strongly unstable spatially extended systems.

    PubMed

    Majda, Andrew J; Grote, Marcus J

    2007-01-23

    Many contemporary problems in science involve making predictions based on partial observation of extremely complicated spatially extended systems with many degrees of freedom and physical instabilities on both large and small scales. Various new ensemble filtering strategies have been developed recently for these applications, and new mathematical issues arise. Here, explicit off-line test criteria for stable accurate discrete filtering are developed for use in the above context and mimic the classical stability analysis for finite difference schemes. First, constant coefficient partial differential equations, which are randomly forced and damped to mimic mesh scale energy spectra in the above problems are developed as off-line filtering test problems. Then mathematical analysis is used to show that under natural suitable hypothesis the time filtering algorithms for general finite difference discrete approximations to an sxs partial differential equation system with suitable observations decompose into much simpler independent s-dimensional filtering problems for each spatial wave number separately; in other test problems, such block diagonal models rigorously provide upper and lower bounds on the filtering algorithm. In this fashion, elementary off-line filtering criteria can be developed for complex spatially extended systems. The theory is illustrated for time filters by using both unstable and implicit difference scheme approximations to the stochastically forced heat equation where the combined effects of filter stability and model error are analyzed through the simpler off-line criteria.

  2. Spatially explicit models for inference about density in unmarked or partially marked populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chandler, Richard B.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models represent a major advance over traditional capture–recapture (CR) models because they yield explicit estimates of animal density instead of population size within an unknown area. Furthermore, unlike nonspatial CR methods, SCR models account for heterogeneity in capture probability arising from the juxtaposition of animal activity centers and sample locations. Although the utility of SCR methods is gaining recognition, the requirement that all individuals can be uniquely identified excludes their use in many contexts. In this paper, we develop models for situations in which individual recognition is not possible, thereby allowing SCR concepts to be applied in studies of unmarked or partially marked populations. The data required for our model are spatially referenced counts made on one or more sample occasions at a collection of closely spaced sample units such that individuals can be encountered at multiple locations. Our approach includes a spatial point process for the animal activity centers and uses the spatial correlation in counts as information about the number and location of the activity centers. Camera-traps, hair snares, track plates, sound recordings, and even point counts can yield spatially correlated count data, and thus our model is widely applicable. A simulation study demonstrated that while the posterior mean exhibits frequentist bias on the order of 5–10% in small samples, the posterior mode is an accurate point estimator as long as adequate spatial correlation is present. Marking a subset of the population substantially increases posterior precision and is recommended whenever possible. We applied our model to avian point count data collected on an unmarked population of the northern parula (Parula americana) and obtained a density estimate (posterior mode) of 0.38 (95% CI: 0.19–1.64) birds/ha. Our paper challenges sampling and analytical conventions in ecology by demonstrating

  3. A spatially explicit model for an Allee effect: why wolves recolonize so slowly in Greater Yellowstone.

    PubMed

    Hurford, Amy; Hebblewhite, Mark; Lewis, Mark A

    2006-11-01

    A reduced probability of finding mates at low densities is a frequently hypothesized mechanism for a component Allee effect. At low densities dispersers are less likely to find mates and establish new breeding units. However, many mathematical models for an Allee effect do not make a distinction between breeding group establishment and subsequent population growth. Our objective is to derive a spatially explicit mathematical model, where dispersers have a reduced probability of finding mates at low densities, and parameterize the model for wolf recolonization in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). In this model, only the probability of establishing new breeding units is influenced by the reduced probability of finding mates at low densities. We analytically and numerically solve the model to determine the effect of a decreased probability in finding mates at low densities on population spread rate and density. Our results suggest that a reduced probability of finding mates at low densities may slow recolonization rate.

  4. MOAB: a spatially explicit, individual-based expert system for creating animal foraging models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carter, J.; Finn, John T.

    1999-01-01

    We describe the development, structure, and corroboration process of a simulation model of animal behavior (MOAB). MOAB can create spatially explicit, individual-based animal foraging models. Users can create or replicate heterogeneous landscape patterns, and place resources and individual animals of a goven species on that landscape to simultaneously simulate the foraging behavior of multiple species. The heuristic rules for animal behavior are maintained in a user-modifiable expert system. MOAB can be used to explore hypotheses concerning the influence of landscape patttern on animal movement and foraging behavior. A red fox (Vulpes vulpes L.) foraging and nest predation model was created to test MOAB's capabilities. Foxes were simulated for 30-day periods using both expert system and random movement rules. Home range size, territory formation and other available simulation studies. A striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis L.) model also was developed. The expert system model proved superior to stochastic in respect to territory formation, general movement patterns and home range size.

  5. A Spatially Explicit Model of Synchronization in Fiddler Crab Waving Displays

    PubMed Central

    Araujo, Sabrina Borges Lino; Rorato, Ana C.; Perez, Daniela M.; Pie, Marcio R.

    2013-01-01

    Fiddler crabs (Uca spp., Decapoda: Ocypodidae) are commonly found forming large aggregations in intertidal zones, where they perform rhythmic waving displays with their greatly enlarged claws. While performing these displays, fiddler crabs often synchronize their behavior with neighboring males, forming the only known synchronized visual courtship displays involving reflected light and moving body parts. Despite being one of the most conspicuous aspects of fiddler crab behavior, little is known about the mechanisms underlying synchronization of male displays. In this study we develop a spatially explicit model of fiddler crab waving displays using coupled logistic map equations. We explored two alternative models in which males either direct their attention at random angles or preferentially toward neighbors. Our results indicate that synchronization is possible over a fairly large region of parameter space. Moreover, our model was capable of generating local synchronization neighborhoods, as commonly observed in fiddler crabs under natural conditions. PMID:23483905

  6. A spatially explicit model of synchronization in fiddler crab waving displays.

    PubMed

    Araujo, Sabrina Borges Lino; Rorato, Ana C; Perez, Daniela M; Pie, Marcio R

    2013-01-01

    Fiddler crabs (Uca spp., Decapoda: Ocypodidae) are commonly found forming large aggregations in intertidal zones, where they perform rhythmic waving displays with their greatly enlarged claws. While performing these displays, fiddler crabs often synchronize their behavior with neighboring males, forming the only known synchronized visual courtship displays involving reflected light and moving body parts. Despite being one of the most conspicuous aspects of fiddler crab behavior, little is known about the mechanisms underlying synchronization of male displays. In this study we develop a spatially explicit model of fiddler crab waving displays using coupled logistic map equations. We explored two alternative models in which males either direct their attention at random angles or preferentially toward neighbors. Our results indicate that synchronization is possible over a fairly large region of parameter space. Moreover, our model was capable of generating local synchronization neighborhoods, as commonly observed in fiddler crabs under natural conditions.

  7. Interactions between spatially explicit conservation and management measures: implications for the governance of marine protected areas.

    PubMed

    Cárcamo, P Francisco; Gaymer, Carlos F

    2013-12-01

    Marine protected areas are not established in an institutional and governance vacuum and managers should pay attention to the wider social-ecological system in which they are immersed. This article examines Islas Choros-Damas Marine Reserve, a small marine protected area located in a highly productive and biologically diverse coastal marine ecosystem in northern Chile, and the interactions between human, institutional, and ecological dimensions beyond those existing within its boundaries. Through documents analysis, surveys, and interviews, we described marine reserve implementation (governing system) and the social and natural ecosystem-to-be-governed. We analyzed the interactions and the connections between the marine reserve and other spatially explicit conservation and/or management measures existing in the area and influencing management outcomes and governance. A top-down approach with poor stakeholder involvement characterized the implementation process. The marine reserve is highly connected with other spatially explicit measures and with a wider social-ecological system through various ecological processes and socio-economic interactions. Current institutional interactions with positive effects on the management and governance are scarce, although several potential interactions may be developed. For the study area, any management action must recognize interferences from outside conditions and consider some of them (e.g., ecotourism management) as cross-cutting actions for the entire social-ecological system. We consider that institutional interactions and the development of social networks are opportunities to any collective effort aiming to improve governance of Islas Choros-Damas marine reserve. Communication of connections and interactions between marine protected areas and the wider social-ecological system (as described in this study) is proposed as a strategy to improve stakeholder participation in Chilean marine protected areas.

  8. Interactions Between Spatially Explicit Conservation and Management Measures: Implications for the Governance of Marine Protected Areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cárcamo, P. Francisco; Gaymer, Carlos F.

    2013-12-01

    Marine protected areas are not established in an institutional and governance vacuum and managers should pay attention to the wider social-ecological system in which they are immersed. This article examines Islas Choros-Damas Marine Reserve, a small marine protected area located in a highly productive and biologically diverse coastal marine ecosystem in northern Chile, and the interactions between human, institutional, and ecological dimensions beyond those existing within its boundaries. Through documents analysis, surveys, and interviews, we described marine reserve implementation (governing system) and the social and natural ecosystem-to-be-governed. We analyzed the interactions and the connections between the marine reserve and other spatially explicit conservation and/or management measures existing in the area and influencing management outcomes and governance. A top-down approach with poor stakeholder involvement characterized the implementation process. The marine reserve is highly connected with other spatially explicit measures and with a wider social-ecological system through various ecological processes and socio-economic interactions. Current institutional interactions with positive effects on the management and governance are scarce, although several potential interactions may be developed. For the study area, any management action must recognize interferences from outside conditions and consider some of them (e.g., ecotourism management) as cross-cutting actions for the entire social-ecological system. We consider that institutional interactions and the development of social networks are opportunities to any collective effort aiming to improve governance of Islas Choros-Damas marine reserve. Communication of connections and interactions between marine protected areas and the wider social-ecological system (as described in this study) is proposed as a strategy to improve stakeholder participation in Chilean marine protected areas.

  9. Predicting Fish Growth Potential and Identifying Water Quality Constraints: A Spatially-Explicit Bioenergetics Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budy, Phaedra; Baker, Matthew; Dahle, Samuel K.

    2011-10-01

    Anthropogenic impairment of water bodies represents a global environmental concern, yet few attempts have successfully linked fish performance to thermal habitat suitability and fewer have distinguished co-varying water quality constraints. We interfaced fish bioenergetics, field measurements, and Thermal Remote Imaging to generate a spatially-explicit, high-resolution surface of fish growth potential, and next employed a structured hypothesis to detect relationships among measures of fish performance and co-varying water quality constraints. Our thermal surface of fish performance captured the amount and spatial-temporal arrangement of thermally-suitable habitat for three focal species in an extremely heterogeneous reservoir, but interpretation of this pattern was initially confounded by seasonal covariation of water residence time and water quality. Subsequent path analysis revealed that in terms of seasonal patterns in growth potential, catfish and walleye responded to temperature, positively and negatively, respectively; crappie and walleye responded to eutrophy (negatively). At the high eutrophy levels observed in this system, some desired fishes appear to suffer from excessive cultural eutrophication within the context of elevated temperatures whereas others appear to be largely unaffected or even enhanced. Our overall findings do not lead to the conclusion that this system is degraded by pollution; however, they do highlight the need to use a sensitive focal species in the process of determining allowable nutrient loading and as integrators of habitat suitability across multiple spatial and temporal scales. We provide an integrated approach useful for quantifying fish growth potential and identifying water quality constraints on fish performance at spatial scales appropriate for whole-system management.

  10. Spatially Explicit Modeling Reveals Cephalopod Distributions Match Contrasting Trophic Pathways in the Western Mediterranean Sea

    PubMed Central

    Puerta, Patricia; Hunsicker, Mary E.; Quetglas, Antoni; Álvarez-Berastegui, Diego; Esteban, Antonio; González, María; Hidalgo, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    Populations of the same species can experience different responses to the environment throughout their distributional range as a result of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in habitat conditions. This highlights the importance of understanding the processes governing species distribution at local scales. However, research on species distribution often averages environmental covariates across large geographic areas, missing variability in population-environment interactions within geographically distinct regions. We used spatially explicit models to identify interactions between species and environmental, including chlorophyll a (Chla) and sea surface temperature (SST), and trophic (prey density) conditions, along with processes governing the distribution of two cephalopods with contrasting life-histories (octopus and squid) across the western Mediterranean Sea. This approach is relevant for cephalopods, since their population dynamics are especially sensitive to variations in habitat conditions and rarely stable in abundance and location. The regional distributions of the two cephalopod species matched two different trophic pathways present in the western Mediterranean Sea, associated with the Gulf of Lion upwelling and the Ebro river discharges respectively. The effects of the studied environmental and trophic conditions were spatially variant in both species, with usually stronger effects along their distributional boundaries. We identify areas where prey availability limited the abundance of cephalopod populations as well as contrasting effects of temperature in the warmest regions. Despite distributional patterns matching productive areas, a general negative effect of Chla on cephalopod densities suggests that competition pressure is common in the study area. Additionally, results highlight the importance of trophic interactions, beyond other common environmental factors, in shaping the distribution of cephalopod populations. Our study presents a valuable

  11. Hydroclimatology of Dual-Peak Annual Cholera Incidence: Insights from a Spatially Explicit Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-12-01

    Cholera incidence in some regions of the Indian subcontinent may exhibit two annual peaks although the main environmental drivers that have been linked to the disease (e.g. sea surface temperature, zooplankton abundance, river discharge) peak once per year during the summer. An empirical hydroclimatological explanation relating cholera transmission to river flows and to the disease spatial spreading has been recently proposed. We specifically support and substantiate mechanistically such hypothesis by means of a spatially explicit model of cholera transmission. Our framework directly accounts for the role of the river network in transporting and redistributing cholera bacteria among human communities as well as for spatial and temporal annual fluctuations of precipitation and river flows. To single out the single out the hydroclimatologic controls on the prevalence patterns in a non-specific geographical context, we first apply the model to Optimal Channel Networks as a general model of hydrological networks. Moreover, we impose a uniform distribution of population. The model is forced by seasonal environmental drivers, namely precipitation, temperature and chlorophyll concentration in the coastal environment, a proxy for Vibrio cholerae concentration. Our results show that these drivers may suffice to generate dual-peak cholera prevalence patterns for proper combinations of timescales involved in pathogen transport, hydrologic variability and disease unfolding. The model explains the possible occurrence of spatial patterns of cholera incidence characterized by a spring peak confined to coastal areas and a fall peak involving inland regions. We then proceed applying the model to the specific settings of Bay of Bengal accounting for the actual river networks (derived from digital terrain map manipulations), the proper distribution of population (estimated from downscaling of census data based on remotely sensed features) and precipitation patterns. Overall our

  12. Spatially Explicit Modeling Reveals Cephalopod Distributions Match Contrasting Trophic Pathways in the Western Mediterranean Sea.

    PubMed

    Puerta, Patricia; Hunsicker, Mary E; Quetglas, Antoni; Álvarez-Berastegui, Diego; Esteban, Antonio; González, María; Hidalgo, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    Populations of the same species can experience different responses to the environment throughout their distributional range as a result of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in habitat conditions. This highlights the importance of understanding the processes governing species distribution at local scales. However, research on species distribution often averages environmental covariates across large geographic areas, missing variability in population-environment interactions within geographically distinct regions. We used spatially explicit models to identify interactions between species and environmental, including chlorophyll a (Chla) and sea surface temperature (SST), and trophic (prey density) conditions, along with processes governing the distribution of two cephalopods with contrasting life-histories (octopus and squid) across the western Mediterranean Sea. This approach is relevant for cephalopods, since their population dynamics are especially sensitive to variations in habitat conditions and rarely stable in abundance and location. The regional distributions of the two cephalopod species matched two different trophic pathways present in the western Mediterranean Sea, associated with the Gulf of Lion upwelling and the Ebro river discharges respectively. The effects of the studied environmental and trophic conditions were spatially variant in both species, with usually stronger effects along their distributional boundaries. We identify areas where prey availability limited the abundance of cephalopod populations as well as contrasting effects of temperature in the warmest regions. Despite distributional patterns matching productive areas, a general negative effect of Chla on cephalopod densities suggests that competition pressure is common in the study area. Additionally, results highlight the importance of trophic interactions, beyond other common environmental factors, in shaping the distribution of cephalopod populations. Our study presents a valuable

  13. Graph theory as a proxy for spatially explicit population models in conservation planning.

    PubMed

    Minor, Emily S; Urban, Dean L

    2007-09-01

    Spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) are often considered the best way to predict and manage species distributions in spatially heterogeneous landscapes. However, they are computationally intensive and require extensive knowledge of species' biology and behavior, limiting their application in many cases. An alternative to SEPMs is graph theory, which has minimal data requirements and efficient algorithms. Although only recently introduced to landscape ecology, graph theory is well suited to ecological applications concerned with connectivity or movement. This paper compares the performance of graph theory to a SEPM in selecting important habitat patches for Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) conservation. We use both models to identify habitat patches that act as population sources and persistent patches and also use graph theory to identify patches that act as stepping stones for dispersal. Correlations of patch rankings were very high between the two models. In addition, graph theory offers the ability to identify patches that are very important to habitat connectivity and thus long-term population persistence across the landscape. We show that graph theory makes very similar predictions in most cases and in other cases offers insight not available from the SEPM, and we conclude that graph theory is a suitable and possibly preferable alternative to SEPMs for species conservation in heterogeneous landscapes.

  14. Exploring behavior of an unusual megaherbivore: A spatially explicit foraging model of the hippopotamus

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lewison, R.L.; Carter, J.

    2004-01-01

    Herbivore foraging theories have been developed for and tested on herbivores across a range of sizes. Due to logistical constraints, however, little research has focused on foraging behavior of megaherbivores. Here we present a research approach that explores megaherbivore foraging behavior, and assesses the applicability of foraging theories developed on smaller herbivores to megafauna. With simulation models as reference points for the analysis of empirical data, we investigate foraging strategies of the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius). Using a spatially explicit individual based foraging model, we apply traditional herbivore foraging strategies to a model hippopotamus, compare model output, and then relate these results to field data from wild hippopotami. Hippopotami appear to employ foraging strategies that respond to vegetation characteristics, such as vegetation quality, as well as spatial reference information, namely distance to a water source. Model predictions, field observations, and comparisons of the two support that hippopotami generally conform to the central place foraging construct. These analyses point to the applicability of general herbivore foraging concepts to megaherbivores, but also point to important differences between hippopotami and other herbivores. Our synergistic approach of models as reference points for empirical data highlights a useful method of behavioral analysis for hard-to-study megafauna. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology: The analysis of data from populations, metapopulations and communities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, Robert M.

    2008-01-01

    A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods. This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures. The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution * abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling * capture-recapture models with individual effects * spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods * population and metapopulation dynamic models * models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics.

  16. Spatially explicit rangeland erosion monitoring using high-resolution digital aerial imagery

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gillan, Jeffrey K.; Karl, Jason W.; Barger, Nichole N.; Elaksher, Ahmed; Duniway, Michael C.

    2016-01-01

    Nearly all of the ecosystem services supported by rangelands, including production of livestock forage, carbon sequestration, and provisioning of clean water, are negatively impacted by soil erosion. Accordingly, monitoring the severity, spatial extent, and rate of soil erosion is essential for long-term sustainable management. Traditional field-based methods of monitoring erosion (sediment traps, erosion pins, and bridges) can be labor intensive and therefore are generally limited in spatial intensity and/or extent. There is a growing effort to monitor natural resources at broad scales, which is driving the need for new soil erosion monitoring tools. One remote-sensing technique that can be used to monitor soil movement is a time series of digital elevation models (DEMs) created using aerial photogrammetry methods. By geographically coregistering the DEMs and subtracting one surface from the other, an estimate of soil elevation change can be created. Such analysis enables spatially explicit quantification and visualization of net soil movement including erosion, deposition, and redistribution. We constructed DEMs (12-cm ground sampling distance) on the basis of aerial photography immediately before and 1 year after a vegetation removal treatment on a 31-ha Piñon-Juniper woodland in southeastern Utah to evaluate the use of aerial photography in detecting soil surface change. On average, we were able to detect surface elevation change of ± 8−9cm and greater, which was sufficient for the large amount of soil movement exhibited on the study area. Detecting more subtle soil erosion could be achieved using the same technique with higher-resolution imagery from lower-flying aircraft such as unmanned aerial vehicles. DEM differencing and process-focused field methods provided complementary information and a more complete assessment of soil loss and movement than any single technique alone. Photogrammetric DEM differencing could be used as a technique to

  17. Density-dependent home-range size revealed by spatially explicit capture–recapture

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Efford, M.G.; Dawson, Deanna K.; Jhala, Y.V.; Qureshi, Q.

    2016-01-01

    The size of animal home ranges often varies inversely with population density among populations of a species. This fact has implications for population monitoring using spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) models, in which both the scale of home-range movements σ and population density D usually appear as parameters, and both may vary among populations. It will often be appropriate to model a structural relationship between population-specific values of these parameters, rather than to assume independence. We suggest re-parameterizing the SECR model using kp = σp √Dp, where kp relates to the degree of overlap between home ranges and the subscript p distinguishes populations. We observe that kp is often nearly constant for populations spanning a range of densities. This justifies fitting a model in which the separate kp are replaced by the single parameter k and σp is a density-dependent derived parameter. Continuous density-dependent spatial variation in σ may also be modelled, using a scaled non-Euclidean distance between detectors and the locations of animals. We illustrate these methods with data from automatic photography of tigers (Panthera tigris) across India, in which the variation is among populations, from mist-netting of ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapilla) in Maryland, USA, in which the variation is within a single population over time, and from live-trapping of brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) in New Zealand, modelling spatial variation within one population. Possible applications and limitations of the methods are discussed. A model in which kp is constant, while density varies, provides a parsimonious null model for SECR. The parameter k of the null model is a concise summary of the empirical relationship between home-range size and density that is useful in comparative studies. We expect deviations from this model, particularly the dependence of kp on covariates, to be biologically interesting.

  18. Anthropogenic and natural methane fluxes in Switzerland synthesized within a spatially-explicit inventory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hiller, R. V.; Bretscher, D.; DelSontro, T.; Diem, T.; Eugster, W.; Henneberger, R.; Hobi, S.; Hodson, E.; Imer, D.; Kreuzer, M.; Künzle, T.; Merbold, L.; Niklaus, P. A.; Rihm, B.; Schellenberger, A.; Schroth, M. H.; Schubert, C. J.; Siegrist, H.; Stieger, J.; Buchmann, N.; Brunner, D.

    2013-09-01

    We present the first high-resolution (500 m × 500 m) gridded methane (CH4) emission inventory for Switzerland, which integrates the national emission totals reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and recent CH4 flux studies conducted by research groups across Switzerland. In addition to anthropogenic emissions, we also include natural and semi-natural CH4 fluxes, i.e., emissions from lakes and reservoirs, wetlands, wild animals as well as uptake by forest soils. National CH4 emissions were disaggregated using detailed geostatistical information on source locations and their spatial extent and process- or area-specific emission factors. In Switzerland, the highest CH4 emissions in 2011 originated from the agricultural sector (150 Gg CH4 yr-1), mainly produced by ruminants and manure management, followed by emissions from waste management (15 Gg CH4 yr-1) mainly from landfills and the energy sector (12 Gg CH4 yr-1), which was dominated by emissions from natural gas distribution. Compared to the anthropogenic sources, emissions from natural and semi-natural sources were relatively small (6 Gg CH4 yr-1), making up only 3 % of the total emissions in Switzerland. CH4 fluxes from agricultural soils were estimated to be not significantly different from zero (between -1.5 and 0 Gg CH4 yr-1), while forest soils are a CH4 sink (approx. -2.8 Gg CH4 yr-1), partially offsetting other natural emissions. Estimates of uncertainties are provided for the different sources, including an estimate of spatial disaggregation errors deduced from a comparison with a global (EDGAR v4.2) and a European CH4 inventory (TNO/MACC). This new spatially-explicit emission inventory for Switzerland will provide valuable input for regional scale atmospheric modeling and inverse source estimation.

  19. Anthropogenic and natural methane fluxes in Switzerland synthesized within a spatially explicit inventory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hiller, R. V.; Bretscher, D.; DelSontro, T.; Diem, T.; Eugster, W.; Henneberger, R.; Hobi, S.; Hodson, E.; Imer, D.; Kreuzer, M.; Künzle, T.; Merbold, L.; Niklaus, P. A.; Rihm, B.; Schellenberger, A.; Schroth, M. H.; Schubert, C. J.; Siegrist, H.; Stieger, J.; Buchmann, N.; Brunner, D.

    2014-04-01

    We present the first high-resolution (500 m × 500 m) gridded methane (CH4) emission inventory for Switzerland, which integrates 90 % of the national emission totals reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and recent CH4 flux studies conducted by research groups across Switzerland. In addition to anthropogenic emissions, we also include natural and semi-natural CH4 fluxes, i.e., emissions from lakes and reservoirs, wetlands, wild animals as well as uptake by forest soils. National CH4 emissions were disaggregated using detailed geostatistical information on source locations and their spatial extent and process- or area-specific emission factors. In Switzerland, the highest CH4 emissions in 2011 originated from the agricultural sector (150 Gg CH4 yr-1), mainly produced by ruminants and manure management, followed by emissions from waste management (15 Gg CH4 yr-1) mainly from landfills and the energy sector (12 Gg CH4 yr-1), which was dominated by emissions from natural gas distribution. Compared with the anthropogenic sources, emissions from natural and semi-natural sources were relatively small (6 Gg CH4 yr-1), making up only 3% of the total emissions in Switzerland. CH4 fluxes from agricultural soils were estimated to be not significantly different from zero (between -1.5 and 0 Gg CH4 yr-1), while forest soils are a CH4 sink (approx. -2.8 Gg CH4 yr-1), partially offsetting other natural emissions. Estimates of uncertainties are provided for the different sources, including an estimate of spatial disaggregation errors deduced from a comparison with a global (EDGAR v4.2) and an European (TNO/MACC) CH4 inventory. This new spatially explicit emission inventory for Switzerland will provide valuable input for regional-scale atmospheric modeling and inverse source estimation.

  20. Spatially explicit modeling of habitat dynamics and fish population persistence in an intermittent lowland stream.

    PubMed

    Perry, George L W; Bond, Nicholas R

    2009-04-01

    In temperate and arid climate zones many streams and rivers flow intermittently, seasonally contracting to a sequence of isolated pools or waterholes over the dry period, before reconnecting in the wetter parts of the year. This seasonal drying process is central to our understanding of the population dynamics of aquatic organisms such as fish and invertebrates in these systems. However, there is a dearth of empirical data on the temporal dynamics of such populations. We describe a spatially explicit individual-based model (SEIBM) of fish population dynamics in such systems, which we use to explore the long-term population viability of the carp gudgeon Hypseleotris spp. in a lowland stream in southeastern Australia. We explicitly consider the impacts of interannual variability in stream flow, for example, due to drought, on habitat availability and hence population persistence. Our results support observations that these populations are naturally highly variable, with simulated fish population sizes typically varying over four orders of magnitude within a 50-year simulation run. The most sensitive parameters in the model relate to the amount of water (habitat) in the system: annual rainfall, seepage loss from the pools, and the carrying capacity (number of individuals per cubic meter) of the pools as they dry down. It seems likely that temporal source sink dynamics allow the fish populations to persist in these systems, with good years (high rainfall and brief cease-to-flow [CTF] periods) buffering against periods of drought. In dry years during which the stream may contract to very low numbers of pools, each of these persistent pools becomes crucial for the persistence of the population in the system. Climate change projections for this area suggest decreases in rainfall and increased incidence of drought; under these environmental conditions the long-term persistence of these fish populations is uncertain.

  1. Spatially explicit neutral models for population genetics and community ecology: Extensions of the Neyman-Scott clustering process.

    PubMed

    Shimatani, Ichiro K

    2010-02-01

    Spatially explicit models relating to plant populations have developed little since Felsenstein (1975) pointed out that if limited seed dispersal causes clustering of individuals, such models cannot reach an equilibrium. This paper aims to resolve this issue by modifying the Neyman-Scott cluster point process. The new point processes are dynamic models with random immigration, and the continuous increase in the clustering of individuals stops at some level. Hence, an equilibrium state is achieved, and new individual-based spatially explicit neutral coalescent models are established. By fitting the spatial structure at equilibrium to individual spatial distribution data, we can indirectly estimate seed dispersal and effective population density. These estimates are improved when genetic data are available, and become even more sophisticated if spatial distribution and genetic data pertaining to the offspring are also available.

  2. A hydrologically explicit, spatially exact, classification of landforms for Canada at 1:500,000 scale.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MacMillan, Robert A.; Geng, Xiaoyuan; Smith, Scott; Zawadzka, Joanna; Hengl, Tom

    2016-04-01

    A new approach for classifying landform types has been developed and applied to all of Canada using a 250 m DEM. The resulting LandMapR classification has been designed to provide a stable and consistent spatial fabric to act as initial proto-polygons to be used in updating the current 1:1 M scale Soil Landscapes of Canada map to 1:500,000 scale. There is a desire to make the current SLC polygon fabric more consistent across the country, more correctly aligned to observable hydrological and landscape features, more spatially exact, more detailed and more interpretable. The approach is essentially a modification of the Hammond (1954) criteria for classifying macro landform types as implemented for computerized analysis by Dikau (1989, 1991) and Brabyn (1998). The major modification is that the key input variables of local relief and relative position in the landscape are computed for specific hillslopes that occur between individual, explicitly defined, channels and divides. While most approaches, including Dikau et al., (1991) and SOTER (Dobos et al., 2005) compute relative relief and landscape position within a neighborhood analysis window (NAW) of some fixed size (9,600 m and 1 km respectively) the LandMapR method assesses these variables based on explicit analysis of flow paths between locally defined divides and channels (or lakes). We have modified the Hammond criteria by splitting the lowest relief class of 0-30 m into 4 classes of 0-0 m, 0-1 m, 1-10 m and 10-30 m) in order to be able to better differentiate subtle landform features in areas of low relief. Essentially this enables recognition of lakes and open water (0 relief and 0 slope), shorelines and littoral zones (0-1 m), nearly flat, low-relief landforms (1-10 m) and low relief undulating plains (10-30 m). We also modified the Hammond approach for separating upper versus lower landform positions used to differentiate flat areas in uplands from flat lowlands. We instead differentiate 3 relative slope

  3. Linking extinction–colonization dynamics to genetic structure in a salamander metapopulation

    PubMed Central

    Cosentino, Bradley J.; Phillips, Christopher A.; Schooley, Robert L.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Douglas, Marlis R.

    2012-01-01

    Theory predicts that founder effects have a primary role in determining metapopulation genetic structure. However, ecological factors that affect extinction–colonization dynamics may also create spatial variation in the strength of genetic drift and migration. We tested the hypothesis that ecological factors underlying extinction–colonization dynamics influenced the genetic structure of a tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum) metapopulation. We used empirical data on metapopulation dynamics to make a priori predictions about the effects of population age and ecological factors on genetic diversity and divergence among 41 populations. Metapopulation dynamics of A. tigrinum depended on wetland area, connectivity and presence of predatory fish. We found that newly colonized populations were more genetically differentiated than established populations, suggesting that founder effects influenced genetic structure. However, ecological drivers of metapopulation dynamics were more important than age in predicting genetic structure. Consistent with demographic predictions from metapopulation theory, genetic diversity and divergence depended on wetland area and connectivity. Divergence was greatest in small, isolated wetlands where genetic diversity was low. Our results show that ecological factors underlying metapopulation dynamics can be key determinants of spatial genetic structure, and that habitat area and isolation may mediate the contributions of drift and migration to divergence and evolution in local populations. PMID:22113029

  4. Remote Sensing of Vegetation Nitrogen Content for Spatially Explicit Carbon and Water Cycle Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Y. L.; Miller, J. R.; Chen, J. M.

    2009-05-01

    Foliage nitrogen concentration is a determinant of photosynthetic capacity of leaves, thereby an important input to ecological models for estimating terrestrial carbon and water budgets. Recently, spectrally continuous airborne hyperspectral remote sensing imagery has proven to be useful for retrieving an important related parameter, total chlorophyll content at both leaf and canopy scales. Thus remote sensing of vegetation biochemical parameters has promising potential for improving the prediction of global carbon and water balance patterns. In this research, we explored the feasibility of estimating leaf nitrogen content using hyperspectral remote sensing data for spatially explicit estimation of carbon and water budgets. Multi-year measurements of leaf biochemical contents of seven major boreal forest species were carried out in northeastern Ontario, Canada. The variation of leaf chlorophyll and nitrogen content in response to various growth conditions, and the relationship between them,were investigated. Despite differences in plant type (deciduous and evergreen), leaf age, stand growth conditions and developmental stages, leaf nitrogen content was strongly correlated with leaf chlorophyll content on a mass basis during the active growing season (r2=0.78). With this general correlation, leaf nitrogen content was estimated from leaf chlorophyll content at an accuracy of RMSE=2.2 mg/g, equivalent to 20.5% of the average measured leaf nitrogen content. Based on this correlation and a hyperspectral remote sensing algorithm for leaf chlorophyll content retrieval, the spatial variation of leaf nitrogen content was inferred from the airborne hyperspectral remote sensing imagery acquired by Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI). A process-based ecological model Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) was used for estimating terrestrial carbon and water budgets. In contrast to the scenario with leaf nitrogen content assigned as a constant value without

  5. Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity—a major outcome of ecosystem functions—on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. PMID:27053739

  6. Spatially explicit scenario analysis for reconciling agricultural expansion, forest protection, and carbon conservation in Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Koh, Lian Pin; Ghazoul, Jaboury

    2010-06-15

    Palm oil is the world's most important vegetable oil in terms of production quantity. Indonesia, the world's largest palm-oil producer, plans to double its production by 2020, with unclear implications for the other national priorities of food (rice) production, forest and biodiversity protection, and carbon conservation. We modeled the outcomes of alternative development scenarios and show that every single-priority scenario had substantial tradeoffs associated with other priorities. The exception was a hybrid approach wherein expansion targeted degraded and agricultural lands that are most productive for oil palm, least suitable for food cultivation, and contain the lowest carbon stocks. This approach avoided any loss in forest or biodiversity and substantially ameliorated the impacts of oil-palm expansion on carbon stocks (limiting net loss to 191.6 million tons) and annual food production capacity (loss of 1.9 million tons). Our results suggest that the environmental and land-use tradeoffs associated with oil-palm expansion can be largely avoided through the implementation of a properly planned and spatially explicit development strategy.

  7. Life cycle impact assessment of terrestrial acidification: modeling spatially explicit soil sensitivity at the global scale.

    PubMed

    Roy, Pierre-Olivier; Deschênes, Louise; Margni, Manuele

    2012-08-07

    This paper presents a novel life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) approach to derive spatially explicit soil sensitivity indicators for terrestrial acidification. This global approach is compatible with a subsequent damage assessment, making it possible to consistently link the developed midpoint indicators with a later endpoint assessment along the cause-effect chain-a prerequisite in LCIA. Four different soil chemical indicators were preselected to evaluate sensitivity factors (SFs) for regional receiving environments at the global scale, namely the base cations to aluminum ratio, aluminum to calcium ratio, pH, and aluminum concentration. These chemical indicators were assessed using the PROFILE geochemical steady-state soil model and a global data set of regional soil parameters developed specifically for this study. Results showed that the most sensitive regions (i.e., where SF is maximized) are in Canada, northern Europe, the Amazon, central Africa, and East and Southeast Asia. However, the approach is not bereft of uncertainty. Indeed, a Monte Carlo analysis showed that input parameter variability may induce SF variations of up to over 6 orders of magnitude for certain chemical indicators. These findings improve current practices and enable the development of regional characterization models to assess regional life cycle inventories in a global economy.

  8. Landscape-based spatially explicit species index models for everglades restoration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Curnutt, J.L.; Comiskey, J.; Nott, M.P.; Gross, L.J.

    2000-01-01

    As part of the effort to restore the ???10 000-km2 Everglades drainage in southern Florida, USA, we developed spatially explicit species index (SESI) models of a number of species and species groups. In this paper we describe the methodology and results of three such models: those for the Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow and the Snail Kite, and the species group model of long-legged wading birds. SESI models are designed to produce relative comparisons of one management alternative to a base scenario or to another alternative. The model outputs do not provide an exact quantitative prediction of future biotic group responses, but rather, when applying the same input data and different hydrologic plans, the models provide the best available means to compare the relative response of the biotic groups. We compared four alternative hydrologic management scenarios to a base scenario (i.e., predicted conditions assuming that current water management practices continue). We ranked the results of the comparisons for each set of models. No one scenario was beneficial to all species; however, they provide a uniform assessment, based on the best available observational information, of relative species responses to alternative water-management plans. As such, these models were used extensively in the restoration planning.

  9. Spatially explicit forest characteristics of Europe through integrating Forest Inventory and Remotely sensed data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno, Adam; Neumann, Mathias; Hasenauer, Hubert

    2015-04-01

    Carbon stock estimates are critical for any carbon trading scheme or climate change mitigation strategy. Understanding the carbon allocation and the structure of its ecosystem further help scientists and policy makers develop realistic plans for utilizing these systems. Forests play an important role in global carbon storage. Therefore it is imperative to include forests in any climate change mitigation and/or carbon trading scheme. Currently there is no estimate of forest carbon stocks and allocation nor forest structure maps throughout Europe. We compiled National Forest Inventory (NFI) data from 12 European countries. We integrated the NFI data with Net Primary Production data (NPP) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), tree height data from Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) data from the Geosciences Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) instrument, and various other spatially explicit data sets. Through this process of integration of terrestrial and space based data we produced wall-to-wall forest characteristics maps of Europe. These maps include forest age, basal area, average diameter at breast height, total carbon, carbon allocation (stem, branches, leaves, roots), and other characteristics derived from forest inventory data. These maps cover Europe - including countries without terrestrial data - and give one coherent harmonized data set of current forest structure and carbon storage on a 16x16km resolution. The methodology presented here has the potential to be used world-wide in regions with data limitations or with limited access to data.

  10. Cholera in the Lake Kivu region (DRC): Integrating remote sensing and spatially explicit epidemiological modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finger, Flavio; Knox, Allyn; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Bompangue, Didier; Gatto, Marino; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2014-07-01

    Mathematical models of cholera dynamics can not only help in identifying environmental drivers and processes that influence disease transmission, but may also represent valuable tools for the prediction of the epidemiological patterns in time and space as well as for the allocation of health care resources. Cholera outbreaks have been reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo since the 1970s. They have been ravaging the shore of Lake Kivu in the east of the country repeatedly during the last decades. Here we employ a spatially explicit, inhomogeneous Markov chain model to describe cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of the lake. Remotely sensed data sets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers in addition to baseline seasonality. The effect of human mobility is also modelled mechanistically. We test several models on a multiyear data set of reported cholera cases. The best fourteen models, accounting for different environmental drivers, and selected using the Akaike information criterion, are formally compared via proper cross validation. Among these, the one accounting for seasonality, El Niño Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility outperforms the others in cross validation. Some drivers (such as human mobility and rainfall) are retained only by a few models, possibly indicating that the mechanisms through which they influence cholera dynamics in the area will have to be investigated further.

  11. Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sleeter, Rachel; Acevedo, William; Soulard, Christopher E.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

    2015-01-01

    Spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation models of land use and land cover (LULC) increase our ability to assess regional landscape characteristics and associated carbon dynamics across multiple scenarios. By characterizing appropriate spatial attributes such as forest age and land-use distribution, a state-and-transition model can more effectively simulate the pattern and spread of LULC changes. This manuscript describes the methods and input parameters of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a customized state-and-transition simulation model utilized to assess the relative impacts of LULC on carbon stocks for the conterminous U.S. The methods and input parameters are spatially explicit and describe initial conditions (strata, state classes and forest age), spatial multipliers, and carbon stock density. Initial conditions were derived from harmonization of multi-temporal data characterizing changes in land use as well as land cover. Harmonization combines numerous national-level datasets through a cell-based data fusion process to generate maps of primary LULC categories. Forest age was parameterized using data from the North American Carbon Program and spatially-explicit maps showing the locations of past disturbances (i.e. wildfire and harvest). Spatial multipliers were developed to spatially constrain the location of future LULC transitions. Based on distance-decay theory, maps were generated to guide the placement of changes related to forest harvest, agricultural intensification/extensification, and urbanization. We analyze the spatially-explicit input parameters with a sensitivity analysis, by showing how LUCAS responds to variations in the model input. This manuscript uses Mediterranean California as a regional subset to highlight local to regional aspects of land change, which demonstrates the utility of LUCAS at many scales and applications.

  12. Integral assessment of floodplains as a basis for spatially-explicit flood loss forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zischg, Andreas Paul; Mosimann, Markus; Weingartner, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    A key aspect of disaster prevention is flood discharge forecasting which is used for early warning and therefore as a decision support for intervention forces. Hereby, the phase between the issued forecast and the time when the expected flood occurs is crucial for an optimal planning of the intervention. Typically, river discharge forecasts cover the regional level only, i.e. larger catchments. However, it is important to note that these forecasts are not useable directly for specific target groups on local level because these forecasts say nothing about the consequences of the predicted flood in terms of affected areas, number of exposed residents and houses. For this, on one hand simulations of the flooding processes and on the other hand data of vulnerable objects are needed. Furthermore, flood modelling in a high spatial and temporal resolution is required for robust flood loss estimation. This is a resource-intensive task from a computing time point of view. Therefore, in real-time applications flood modelling in 2D is not suited. Thus, forecasting flood losses in the short-term (6h-24h in advance) requires a different approach. Here, we propose a method to downscale the river discharge forecast to a spatially-explicit flood loss forecast. The principal procedure is to generate as many flood scenarios as needed in advance to represent the flooded areas for all possible flood hydrographs, e.g. very high peak discharges of short duration vs. high peak discharges with high volumes. For this, synthetic flood hydrographs were derived from the hydrologic time series. Then, the flooded areas of each scenario were modelled with a 2D flood simulation model. All scenarios were intersected with the dataset of vulnerable objects, in our case residential, agricultural and industrial buildings with information about the number of residents, the object-specific vulnerability, and the monetary value of the objects. This dataset was prepared by a data-mining approach. For each

  13. SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MICRO-LEVEL MODELLING OF LAND USE CHANGE AT THE RURAL-URBAN INTERFACE. (R828012)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper describes micro-economic models of land use change applicable to the rural–urban interface in the US. Use of a spatially explicit micro-level modelling approach permits the analysis of regional patterns of land use as the aggregate outcomes of many, disparate...

  14. Spatially explicit modeling of conflict zones between wildlife and snow sports: prioritizing areas for winter refuges.

    PubMed

    Braunisch, Veronika; Patthey, Patrick; Arlettaz, Raphaël

    2011-04-01

    Outdoor winter recreation exerts an increasing pressure upon mountain ecosystems, with unpredictable, free-ranging activities (e.g., ski mountaineering, snowboarding, and snowshoeing) representing a major source of stress for wildlife. Mitigating anthropogenic disturbance requires the spatially explicit prediction of the interference between the activities of humans and wildlife. We applied spatial modeling to localize conflict zones between wintering Black Grouse (Tetrao tetrix), a declining species of Alpine timberline ecosystems, and two free-ranging winter sports (off-piste skiing [including snow-boarding] and snowshoeing). Track data (snow-sports and birds' traces) obtained from aerial photographs taken over a 585-km transect running along the timberline, implemented within a maximum entropy model, were used to predict the occurrence of snow sports and Black Grouse as a function of landscape characteristics. By modeling Black Grouse presence in the theoretical absence of free-ranging activities and ski infrastructure, we first estimated the amount of habitat reduction caused by these two factors. The models were then extrapolated to the altitudinal range occupied by Black Grouse, while the spatial extent and intensity of potential conflict were assessed by calculating the probability of human-wildlife co-occurrence. The two snow-sports showed different distribution patterns. Skiers' occurrence was mainly determined by ski-lift presence and a smooth terrain, while snowshoers' occurrence was linked to hiking or skiing routes and moderate slopes. Wintering Black Grouse avoided ski lifts and areas frequented by free-ranging snow sports. According to the models, Black Grouse have faced a substantial reduction of suitable wintering habitat along the timberline transect: 12% due to ski infrastructure and another 16% when adding free-ranging activities. Extrapolating the models over the whole study area results in an overall habitat loss due to ski infrastructure of

  15. A risk assessment example for soil invertebrates using spatially explicit agent-based models.

    PubMed

    Reed, Melissa; Alvarez, Tania; Chelinho, Sónia; Forbes, Valery; Johnston, Alice; Meli, Mattia; Voss, Frank; Pastorok, Rob

    2016-01-01

    Current risk assessment methods for measuring the toxicity of plant protection products (PPPs) on soil invertebrates use standardized laboratory conditions to determine acute effects on mortality and sublethal effects on reproduction. If an unacceptable risk is identified at the lower tier, population-level effects are assessed using semifield and field trials at a higher tier because modeling methods for extrapolating available lower-tier information to population effects have not yet been implemented. Field trials are expensive, time consuming, and cannot be applied to variable landscape scenarios. Mechanistic modeling of the toxicological effects of PPPs on individuals and their responses combined with simulation of population-level response shows great potential in fulfilling such a need, aiding ecologically informed extrapolation. Here, we introduce and demonstrate the potential of 2 population models for ubiquitous soil invertebrates (collembolans and earthworms) as refinement options in current risk assessment. Both are spatially explicit agent-based models (ABMs), incorporating individual and landscape variability. The models were used to provide refined risk assessments for different application scenarios of a hypothetical pesticide applied to potato crops (full-field spray onto the soil surface [termed "overall"], in-furrow, and soil-incorporated pesticide applications). In the refined risk assessment, the population models suggest that soil invertebrate populations would likely recover within 1 year after pesticide application, regardless of application method. The population modeling for both soil organisms also illustrated that a lower predicted average environmental concentration in soil (PECsoil) could potentially lead to greater effects at the population level, depending on the spatial heterogeneity of the pesticide and the behavior of the soil organisms. Population-level effects of spatial-temporal variations in exposure were elucidated in the

  16. Hydroclimatology of Dual Peak Cholera Incidence in Bengal Region: Inferences from a Spatial Explicit Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2010-12-01

    The seasonality of cholera and its relation with environmental drivers are receiving increasing interest and research efforts, yet they remain unsatisfactorily understood. A striking example is the observed annual cycle of cholera incidence in the Bengal region which exhibits two peaks despite the main environmental drivers that have been linked to the disease (air and sea surface temperature, zooplankton density, river discharge) follow a synchronous single-peak annual pattern. A first outbreak, mainly affecting the coastal regions, occurs in spring and it is followed, after a period of low incidence during summer, by a second, usually larger, peak in autumn also involving regions situated farther inland. A hydroclimatological explanation for this unique seasonal cycle has been recently proposed: the low river spring flows favor the intrusion of brackish water (the natural environment of the causative agent of the disease) which, in turn, triggers the first outbreak. The summer rising river discharges have a temporary dilution effect and prompt the repulsion of contaminated water which lowers the disease incidence. However, the monsoon flooding, together with the induced crowding of the population and the failure of the sanitation systems, can possibly facilitate the spatial transmission of the disease and promote the autumn outbreak. We test this hypothesis using a mechanistic, spatially explicit model of cholera epidemic. The framework directly accounts for the role of the river network in transporting and redistributing cholera bacteria among human communities as well as for the annual fluctuation of the river flow. The model is forced with the actual environmental drivers of the region, namely river flow and temperature. Our results show that these two drivers, both having a single peak in the summer, can generate a double peak cholera incidence pattern. Besides temporal patterns, the model is also able to qualitatively reproduce spatial patterns characterized

  17. Spatially Explicit Simulation of Mesotopographic Controls on Peatland Hydrology and Carbon Fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sonnentag, O.; Chen, J. M.; Roulet, N. T.

    2006-12-01

    A number of field carbon flux measurements, paleoecological records, and model simulations have acknowledged the importance of northern peatlands in terrestrial carbon cycling and methane emissions. An important parameter in peatlands that influences both net primary productivity, the net gain of carbon through photosynthesis, and decomposition under aerobic and anaerobic conditions, is the position of the water table. Biological and physical processes involved in peatland carbon dynamics and their hydrological controls operate at different spatial scales. The highly variable hydraulic characteristics of the peat profile and the overall shape of the peat body as defined by its surface topography at the mesoscale (104 m2) are of major importance for peatland water table dynamics. Common types of peatlands include bogs with a slightly domed centre. As a result of the convex profile, their water supply is restricted to atmospheric inputs, and water is mainly shed by shallow subsurface flow. From a modelling perspective the influence of mesotopographic controls on peatland hydrology and thus carbon balance requires that process-oriented models that examine the links between peatland hydrology, ecosystem functioning, and climate must incorporate some form of lateral subsurface flow consideration. Most hydrological and ecological modelling studies in complex terrain explicitly account for the topographic controls on lateral subsurface flow through digital elevation models. However, modelling studies in peatlands often employ simple empirical parameterizations of lateral subsurface flow, neglecting the influence of peatlands low relief mesoscale topography. Our objective is to explicitly simulate the mesotopographic controls on peatland hydrology and carbon fluxes using the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) adapted to northern peatlands. BEPS is a process-oriented ecosystem model in a remote sensing framework that takes into account peatlands multi

  18. Spatially explicit exposure assessment for small streams in catchments of the orchard growing region `Lake Constance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golla, B.; Bach, M.; Krumpe, J.

    2009-04-01

    1. Introduction Small streams differ greatly from the standardised water body used in the context of aquatic risk assessment for the regulation of plant protection products in Germany. The standard water body is static, with a depth of 0.3 m and a width of 1.0 m. No dilution or water replacement takes place. Spray drift happens always in direction to the water body. There is no variability in drift deposition rate (90th percentile spray drift deposition values [2]). There is no spray drift filtering by vegetation. The application takes place directly adjacent to the water body. In order to establish a more realistic risk assessment procedure the Federal Office for Consumer Protection and Food Safety (BVL) and the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) aggreed to replace deterministic assumptions with data distributions and spatially explicit data and introduce probabilistic methods [3, 4, 5]. To consider the spatial and temporal variability in the exposure situations of small streams the hydraulic and morphological characteristics of catchments need to be described as well as the spatial distribution of fields treated with pesticides. As small streams are the dominant type of water body in most German orchard regions, we use the growing region Lake Constance as pilot region. 2. Materials and methods During field surveys we derive basic morphological parameters for small streams in the Lake Constance region. The mean water width/depth ratio is 13 with a mean depth of 0.12 m. The average residence time is 5.6 s/m (n=87) [1]. Orchards are mostly located in the upper parts of the catchments. Based on an authoritative dataset on rivers and streams of Germany (ATKIS DLM25) we constructed a directed network topology for the Lake Constance region. The gradient of the riverbed is calculated for river stretches of > 500 m length. The network for the pilot region consists of 2000 km rivers and streams. 500 km stream length are located within a distance of 150 m to orchards. Within

  19. Intermediate disturbance in experimental landscapes improves persistence of beetle metapopulations.

    PubMed

    Govindan, Byju N; Feng, Zhilan; DeWoody, Yssa D; Swihart, Robert K

    2015-03-01

    Human-dominated landscapes often feature patches that fluctuate in suitability through space and time, but there is little experimental evidence relating the consequences of dynamic patches for species persistence. We used a spatially and temporally dynamic metapopulation model to assess and compare metapopulation capacity and persistence for red flour beetles (Tribolium castaneum) in experimental landscapes differentiated by resource structure, patch dynamics (destruction and restoration), and connectivity. High connectivity increased the colonization rate of beetles, but this effect was less pronounced in heterogeneous relative to homogeneous landscapes. Higher connectivity and faster patch dynamics increased extinction rates in landscapes. Lower connectivity promoted density-dependent emigration. Heterogeneous landscapes containing patches of different carrying capacity enhanced landscape-level occupancy probability. The highest metapopulation capacity and persistence was observed in landscapes with heterogeneous patches, low connectivity, and slow patch dynamics. Control landscapes with no patch dynamics exhibited rapid declines in abundance and approached extinction due to increased adult mortality in the matrix, higher pupal cannibalism by adults, and extremely low rates of exchange between remaining habitable patches. Our results highlight the role of intermediate patch dynamics, intermediate connectivity, and the nature of density dependence of emigration for persistence of species in heterogeneous landscapes. Our results also demonstrate the importance of incorporating local dynamics into the estimation of metapopulation capacity for conservation planning.

  20. A spatially explicit decision support model for restoration of forest bird habitat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Twedt, D.J.; Uihlein, W.B.; Elliott, A.B.

    2006-01-01

    The historical area of bottomland hardwood forest in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley has been reduced by >75%. Agricultural production was the primary motivator for deforestation; hence, clearing deliberately targeted higher and drier sites. Remaining forests are highly fragmented and hydrologically altered, with larger forest fragments subject to greater inundation, which has negatively affected many forest bird populations. We developed a spatially explicit decision support model, based on a Partners in Flight plan for forest bird conservation, that prioritizes forest restoration to reduce forest fragmentation and increase the area of forest core (interior forest >1 km from 'hostile' edge). Our primary objective was to increase the number of forest patches that harbor >2000 ha of forest core, but we also sought to increase the number and area of forest cores >5000 ha. Concurrently, we targeted restoration within local (320 km2) landscapes to achieve >60% forest cover. Finally, we emphasized restoration of higher-elevation bottomland hardwood forests in areas where restoration would not increase forest fragmentation. Reforestation of 10% of restorable land in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (approximately 880,000 ha) targeted at priorities established by this decision support model resulted in approximately 824,000 ha of new forest core. This is more than 32 times the amount of core forest added through reforestation of randomly located fields (approximately 25,000 ha). The total area of forest core (1.6 million ha) that resulted from targeted restoration exceeded habitat objectives identified in the Partners in Flight Bird Conservation Plan and approached the area of forest core present in the 1950s.

  1. Spatially Explicit Modelling of the Belgian Major Endurance Event ‘The 100 km Dodentocht’

    PubMed Central

    Van Nieuland, Steffie; Baetens, Jan M.; De Baets, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    ‘The 100 km Dodentocht’, which takes place annually and has its start in Bornem, Belgium, is a long distance march where participants have to cover a 100 km trail in at most 24 hours. The approximately 11 000 marchers per edition are tracked by making use of passive radio-frequency-identification (RFID). These tracking data were analyzed to build a spatially explicit marching model that gives insights into the dynamics of the event and allows to evaluate the effect of changes in the starting procedure of the event. For building the model, the empirical distribution functions (edf) of the marching speeds at every section of the trail in between two consecutive checkpoints and of the checkpoints where marchers retire, are determined, taking into account age, gender, and marching speeds at previous sections. These distribution functions are then used to sample the consecutive speeds and retirement, and as such to simulate the times when individual marchers pass by the consecutive checkpoints. We concluded that the data-driven model simulates the event reliably. Furthermore, we tested three scenarios to reduce the crowdiness along the first part of the trail and in this way were able to conclude that either the start should be moved to a location outside the town center where the streets are at least 25% wider, or that the marchers should start in two groups at two different locations, and that these groups should ideally merge at about 20 km after the start. The crowdiness at the start might also be reduced by installing a bottleneck at the start in order to limit the number of marchers that can pass per unit of time. Consequently, the operating hours of the consecutive checkpoints would be longer. The developed framework can likewise be used to analyze and improve the operation of other endurance events if sufficient tracking data are available. PMID:27764202

  2. A spatially explicit estimate of the prewhaling abundance of the endangered North Atlantic right whale.

    PubMed

    Monsarrat, Sophie; Pennino, M Grazia; Smith, Tim D; Reeves, Randall R; Meynard, Christine N; Kaplan, David M; Rodrigues, Ana S L

    2016-08-01

    The North Atlantic right whale (NARW) (Eubalaena glacialis) is one of the world's most threatened whales. It came close to extinction after nearly a millennium of exploitation and currently persists as a population of only approximately 500 individuals. Setting appropriate conservation targets for this species requires an understanding of its historical population size, as a baseline for measuring levels of depletion and progress toward recovery. This is made difficult by the scarcity of records over this species' long whaling history. We sought to estimate the preexploitation population size of the North Atlantic right whale and understand how this species was distributed across its range. We used a spatially explicit data set on historical catches of North Pacific right whales (NPRWs) (Eubalaena japonica) to model the relationship between right whale relative density and the environment during the summer feeding season. Assuming the 2 right whale species select similar environments, we projected this model to the North Atlantic to predict how the relative abundance of NARWs varied across their range. We calibrated these relative abundances with estimates of the NPRW total prewhaling population size to obtain high and low estimates for the overall NARW population size prior to exploitation. The model predicted 9,075-21,328 right whales in the North Atlantic. The current NARW population is thus <6% of the historical North Atlantic carrying capacity and has enormous potential for recovery. According to the model, in June-September NARWs concentrated in 2 main feeding areas: east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and in the Norwegian Sea. These 2 areas may become important in the future as feeding grounds and may already be used more regularly by this endangered species than is thought.

  3. Spatially explicit simulation of peatland hydrology and carbon dioxide exchange: Influence of mesoscale topography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sonnentag, O.; Chen, J. M.; Roulet, N. T.; Ju, W.; Govind, A.

    2008-06-01

    Carbon dynamics in peatlands are controlled, in large part, by their wetness as defined by water table depth and volumetric liquid soil moisture content. A common type of peatland is raised bogs that typically have a multiple-layer canopy of vascular plants over a Sphagnum moss ground cover. Their convex form restricts water supply to precipitation and water is shed toward the margins, usually by lateral subsurface flow. The hydraulic gradient for lateral subsurface flow is governed by the peat surface topography at the mesoscale (˜200 m to 5 km). To investigate the influence of mesoscale topography on wetness, evapotranspiration (ET), and gross primary productivity (GPP) in a bog during the snow-free period, we compare the outputs of a further developed version of the daily Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) with observations made at the Mer Bleue peatland, located near Ottawa, Canada. Explicitly considering mesoscale topography, simulated total ET and GPP correlate well with measured ET (r = 0.91) and derived gross ecosystem productivity (GEP; r = 0.92). Both measured ET and derived GEP are simulated similarly well when mesoscale topography is neglected, but daily simulated values are systematically underestimated by about 10% and 12% on average, respectively, due to greater wetness resulting from the lack of lateral subsurface flow. Owing to the differences in moss surface conductances of water vapor and carbon dioxide with increasing moss water content, the differences in the spatial patterns of simulated total ET and GPP are controlled by the mesotopographic position of the moss ground cover.

  4. Human Mobility Patterns and Cholera Epidemics: a Spatially Explicit Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mari, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2010-12-01

    Cholera is an acute enteric disease caused by the ingestion of water or food contaminated by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. Although most infected individuals do not develop severe symptoms, their stool may contain huge quantities of V.~cholerae cells. Therefore, while traveling or commuting, asymptomatic carriers can be responsible for the long-range dissemination of the disease. As a consequence, human mobility is an alternative and efficient driver for the spread of cholera, whose primary propagation pathway is hydrological transport through river networks. We present a multi-layer network model that accounts for the interplay between epidemiological dynamics, hydrological transport and long-distance dissemination of V.~cholerae due to human movement. In particular, building on top of state-of-the-art spatially explicit models for cholera spread through surface waters, we describe human movement and its effects on the propagation of the disease by means of a gravity-model approach borrowed from transportation theory. Gravity-like contact processes have been widely used in epidemiology, because they can satisfactorily depict human movement when data on actual mobility patterns are not available. We test our model against epidemiological data recorded during the cholera outbreak occurred in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa during years 2000--2001. We show that human mobility does actually play an important role in the formation of the spatiotemporal patterns of cholera epidemics. In particular, long-range human movement may determine inter-catchment dissemination of V.~cholerae cells, thus in turn explaining the emergence of epidemic patterns that cannot be produced by hydrological transport alone. We also show that particular attention has to be devoted to study how heterogeneously distributed drinking water supplies and sanitation conditions may affect cholera transmission.

  5. A spatially explicit model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2011-12-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to July 2011, climb to 385,000 cases and 5,800 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of textit{Vibrio cholera}, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan texttrademark project). The model directly account for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations, clean water supply and educational campaigns, thus emerging as an essential component of the control of future cholera

  6. Probabilistic measures of persistence and extinction in measles (meta)populations

    PubMed Central

    Gunning, Christian E.; Wearing, Helen J.

    2013-01-01

    Persistence and extinction are fundamental processes in ecological systems that are difficult to accurately measure due to stochasticity and incomplete observation. Moreover, these processes operate on multiple scales, from individual populations to metapopulations. Here we examine an extensive new dataset of measles case reports and associated demographics in pre-vaccine era U.S. cities, alongside a classic England & Wales dataset. We first infer the per-population quasi-continuous distribution of log incidence. We then use stochastic, spatially implicit metapopulation models to explore the frequency of rescue events and apparent extinctions. We show that, unlike critical community size, the inferred distributions account for observational processes, allowing direct comparisons between metapopulations. The inferred distributions scale with population size. We use these scalings to estimate extinction boundary probabilities. We compare these predictions with measurements in individual populations and random aggregates of populations, highlighting the importance of medium-sized populations in metapopulation persistence. PMID:23782847

  7. Ecological and genetic basis of metapopulation persistence of the Glanville fritillary butterfly in fragmented landscapes.

    PubMed

    Hanski, Ilkka; Schulz, Torsti; Wong, Swee Chong; Ahola, Virpi; Ruokolainen, Annukka; Ojanen, Sami P

    2017-02-17

    Ecologists are challenged to construct models of the biological consequences of habitat loss and fragmentation. Here, we use a metapopulation model to predict the distribution of the Glanville fritillary butterfly during 22 years across a large heterogeneous landscape with 4,415 small dry meadows. The majority (74%) of the 125 networks into which the meadows were clustered are below the extinction threshold for long-term persistence. Among the 33 networks above the threshold, spatial configuration and habitat quality rather than the pooled habitat area predict metapopulation size and persistence, but additionally allelic variation in a SNP in the gene Phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) explains 30% of variation in metapopulation size. The Pgi genotypes are associated with dispersal rate and hence with colonizations and extinctions. Associations between Pgi genotypes, population turnover and metapopulation size reflect eco-evolutionary dynamics, which may be a common feature in species inhabiting patch networks with unstable local dynamics.

  8. Ecological and genetic basis of metapopulation persistence of the Glanville fritillary butterfly in fragmented landscapes

    PubMed Central

    Hanski, Ilkka; Schulz, Torsti; Wong, Swee Chong; Ahola, Virpi; Ruokolainen, Annukka; Ojanen, Sami P.

    2017-01-01

    Ecologists are challenged to construct models of the biological consequences of habitat loss and fragmentation. Here, we use a metapopulation model to predict the distribution of the Glanville fritillary butterfly during 22 years across a large heterogeneous landscape with 4,415 small dry meadows. The majority (74%) of the 125 networks into which the meadows were clustered are below the extinction threshold for long-term persistence. Among the 33 networks above the threshold, spatial configuration and habitat quality rather than the pooled habitat area predict metapopulation size and persistence, but additionally allelic variation in a SNP in the gene Phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) explains 30% of variation in metapopulation size. The Pgi genotypes are associated with dispersal rate and hence with colonizations and extinctions. Associations between Pgi genotypes, population turnover and metapopulation size reflect eco-evolutionary dynamics, which may be a common feature in species inhabiting patch networks with unstable local dynamics. PMID:28211463

  9. Spatially Explicit Estimates of Suspended Sediment and Bedload Transport Rates for Western Oregon and Northwestern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Connor, J. E.; Wise, D. R.; Mangano, J.; Jones, K.

    2015-12-01

    Empirical analyses of suspended sediment and bedload transport gives estimates of sediment flux for western Oregon and northwestern California. The estimates of both bedload and suspended load are from regression models relating measured annual sediment yield to geologic, physiographic, and climatic properties of contributing basins. The best models include generalized geology and either slope or precipitation. The best-fit suspended-sediment model is based on basin geology, precipitation, and area of recent wildfire. It explains 65% of the variance for 68 suspended sediment measurement sites within the model area. Predicted suspended sediment yields range from no yield from the High Cascades geologic province to 200 tonnes/ km2-yr in the northern Oregon Coast Range and 1000 tonnes/km2-yr in recently burned areas of the northern Klamath terrain. Bed-material yield is similarly estimated from a regression model based on 22 sites of measured bed-material transport, mostly from reservoir accumulation analyses but also from several bedload measurement programs. The resulting best-fit regression is based on basin slope and the presence/absence of the Klamath geologic terrane. For the Klamath terrane, bed-material yield is twice that of the other geologic provinces. This model explains more than 80% of the variance of the better-quality measurements. Predicted bed-material yields range up to 350 tonnes/ km2-yr in steep areas of the Klamath terrane. Applying these regressions to small individual watersheds (mean size; 66 km2 for bed-material; 3 km2 for suspended sediment) and cumulating totals down the hydrologic network (but also decreasing the bed-material flux by experimentally determined attrition rates) gives spatially explicit estimates of both bed-material and suspended sediment flux. This enables assessment of several management issues, including the effects of dams on bedload transport, instream gravel mining, habitat formation processes, and water-quality. The

  10. SEHR-ECHO v1.0: a Spatially-Explicit Hydrologic Response model for ecohydrologic applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaefli, Bettina; Nicótina, Ludovico; Da Ronco, Pierfrancesco; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2015-04-01

    We present here the SEHR-ECHO model, which stands for Spatially Explicit Hydrologic Response (SEHR) model developed at the Laboratory of Ecohydrology (ECHO) of the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne. The model is being developed for the spatially-explicit simulation of streamflow and transport processes at the catchment scale. The key concept of the model is the formulation of water transport by geomorphologic travel time distributions: the mobilization of water (and possibly dissolved solutes) is simulated at the subcatchment scale and the resulting responses are convolved with the travel paths distribution within the river network to obtain the hydrologic response at the catchment outlet. The Matlab source code of the current version for alpine streamflow simulation is already freely available. A truly free open source version using Python will become available in the future.

  11. SPATIALLY-EXPLICIT BAT IMPACT SCREENING TOOL FOR WIND TURBINE SITING

    SciTech Connect

    Versar, Inc.; Exponent, Inc.

    2013-10-28

    As the U.S. seeks to increase energy production from renewable energy sources, development of wind power resources continues to grow. One of the most important ecological issues restricting wind energy development, especially the siting of wind turbines, is the potential adverse effect on bats. High levels of bat fatality have been recorded at a number of wind energy facilities, especially in the eastern United States. The U.S. Department of Energy contracted with Versar, Inc., and Exponent to develop a spatially-explicit site screening tool to evaluate the mortality of bats resulting from interactions (collisions or barotrauma) with wind turbines. The resulting Bat Vulnerability Assessment Tool (BVAT) presented in this report integrates spatial information about turbine locations, bat habitat features, and bat behavior as it relates to possible interactions with turbines. A model demonstration was conducted that focuses on two bat species, the eastern red bat (Lasiurus borealis) and the Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis). The eastern red bat is a relatively common tree-roosting species that ranges broadly during migration in the Eastern U.S., whereas the Indiana bat is regional species that migrates between a summer range and cave hibernacula. Moreover, Indiana bats are listed as endangered, and so the impacts to this species are of particular interest. The model demonstration used conditions at the Mountaineer Wind Energy Center (MWEC), which consists of 44 wind turbines arranged in a linear array near Thomas, West Virginia (Tucker County), to illustrate model functions and not to represent actual or potential impacts of the facility. The turbines at MWEC are erected on the ridge of Backbone Mountain with a nacelle height of 70 meters and a collision area of 72 meters (blade height) or 4,071 meters square. The habitat surrounding the turbines is an Appalachian mixed mesophytic forest. Model sensitivity runs showed that bat mortality in the model was most sensitive to

  12. A Spatially Explicit Dual-Isotope Approach to Map Regions of Plant-Plant Interaction after Exotic Plant Invasion

    PubMed Central

    Hellmann, Christine; Werner, Christiane; Oldeland, Jens

    2016-01-01

    Understanding interactions between native and invasive plant species in field settings and quantifying the impact of invaders in heterogeneous native ecosystems requires resolving the spatial scale on which these processes take place. Therefore, functional tracers are needed that enable resolving the alterations induced by exotic plant invasion in contrast to natural variation in a spatially explicit way. 15N isoscapes, i.e., spatially referenced representations of stable nitrogen isotopic signatures, have recently provided such a tracer. However, different processes, e.g. water, nitrogen or carbon cycles, may be affected at different spatial scales. Thus multi-isotope studies, by using different functional tracers, can potentially return a more integrated picture of invader impact. This is particularly true when isoscapes are submitted to statistical methods suitable to find homogeneous subgroups in multivariate data such as cluster analysis. Here, we used model-based clustering of spatially explicit foliar δ15N and δ13C isoscapes together with N concentration of a native indicator species, Corema album, to map regions of influence in a Portuguese dune ecosystem invaded by the N2-fixing Acacia longifolia. Cluster analysis identified regions with pronounced alterations in N budget and water use efficiency in the native species, with a more than twofold increase in foliar N, and δ13C and δ15N enrichment of up to 2‰ and 8‰ closer to the invader, respectively. Furthermore, clusters of multiple functional tracers indicated a spatial shift from facilitation through N addition in the proximity of the invader to competition for resources other than N in close contact. Finding homogeneous subgroups in multi-isotope data by means of model-based cluster analysis provided an effective tool for detecting spatial structure in processes affecting plant physiology and performance. The proposed method can give an objective measure of the spatial extent of influence of

  13. CDFISH: an individual-based, spatially-explicit, landscape genetics simulator for aquatic species in complex riverscapes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Erin L. Landguth,; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Luikart, Gordon

    2012-01-01

    We introduce Cost Distance FISHeries (CDFISH), a simulator of population genetics and connectivity in complex riverscapes for a wide range of environmental scenarios of aquatic organisms. The spatially-explicit program implements individual-based genetic modeling with Mendelian inheritance and k-allele mutation on a riverscape with resistance to movement. The program simulates individuals in subpopulations through time employing user-defined functions of individual migration, reproduction, mortality, and dispersal through straying on a continuous resistance surface.

  14. Mapping of the CO2 and anthropogenic heat emission under spatially explicit urban land use scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamichi, K.; Yamagata, Y.; Seya, H.

    2010-12-01

    possible range of future land use change. The first one is a compact city scenario and the second one is a dispersion scenario. In the compact city scenario, we assumed that commuting to work by cars would be prohibited. In the dispersion scenario, we assumed that all workers would work in their own houses and the time of commuting to work would be zero. The spatially explicit emissions are mapped by using Geographical Information System (GIS). As for the CO2 emission, this study focuses on the analysis of the tendency from the viewpoint of both direct and indirect emission. As a result, people would live in suburbs in the second scenario, and the emissions would increase. It is concluded that the results shows the importance of low-carbon city as compact city. Moreover, the anthropogenic heat emission estimated in this study can used as the input parameters for the climate models. The developed system can be used for analyzing the implications of urban planning and carbon management scenarios.

  15. Empirical determinants of measles metapopulation dynamics in England and Wales.

    PubMed

    Finkenstädt, B; Grenfell, B

    1998-02-07

    A key issue in metapopulation dynamics is the relative impact of internal patch dynamics and coupling between patches. This problem can be addressed by analysing large spatiotemporal data sets, recording the local and global dynamics of metapopulations. In this paper, we analyse the dynamics of measles meta-populations in a large spatiotemporal case notification data set, collected during the pre-vaccination era in England and Wales. Specifically, we use generalized linear statistical models to quantify the relative importance of local influences (birth rate and population size) and regional coupling on local epidemic dynamics. Apart from the proportional effect of local population size on case totals, the models indicate patterns of local and regional dynamic influences which depend on the current state of epidemics. Birth rate and geographic coupling are not associated with the size of major epidemics. By contrast, minor epidemics--and especially the incidence of local extinction of infection--are influenced both by birth rate and geographical coupling. Birth rate at a lag of four years provides the best fit, reflecting the delayed recruitment of susceptibles to school cohorts. A hierarchical index of spatial coupling to large centres provides the best spatial model. The model also indicates that minor epidemics and extinction patterns are more strongly influenced by this regional effect than the local impact of birth rate.

  16. Gene genealogies in a metapopulation.

    PubMed Central

    Wakeley, J; Aliacar, N

    2001-01-01

    A simple genealogical process is found for samples from a metapopulation, which is a population that is subdivided into a large number of demes, each of which is subject to extinction and recolonization and receives migrants from other demes. As in the migration-only models studied previously, the genealogy of any sample includes two phases: a brief sample-size adjustment followed by a coalescent process that dominates the history. This result will hold for metapopulations that are composed of a large number of demes. It is robust to the details of population structure, as long as the number of possible source demes of migrants and colonists for each deme is large. Analytic predictions about levels of genetic variation are possible, and results for average numbers of pairwise differences within and between demes are given. Further analysis of the expected number of segregating sites in a sample from a single deme illustrates some previously known differences between migration and extinction/recolonization. The ancestral process is also amenable to computer simulation. Simulation results show that migration and extinction/recolonization have very different effects on the site-frequency distribution in a sample from a single deme. Migration can cause a U-shaped site-frequency distribution, which is qualitatively similar to the pattern reported recently for positive selection. Extinction and recolonization, in contrast, can produce a mode in the site-frequency distribution at intermediate frequencies, even in a sample from a single deme. PMID:11606561

  17. Exploring spatial change and gravity center movement for ecosystem services value using a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and gravity model.

    PubMed

    He, Yingbin; Chen, Youqi; Tang, Huajun; Yao, Yanmin; Yang, Peng; Chen, Zhongxin

    2011-04-01

    Spatially explicit ecosystem services valuation and change is a newly developing area of research in the field of ecology. Using the Beijing region as a study area, the authors have developed a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and implemented this to quantify and spatially differentiate ecosystem services value at 1-km grid resolution. A gravity model was developed to trace spatial change in the total ecosystem services value of the Beijing study area from a holistic point of view. Study results show that the total value of ecosystem services for the study area decreased by 19.75% during the period 1996-2006 (3,226.2739 US$×10(6) in 1996, 2,589.0321 US$×10(6) in 2006). However, 27.63% of the total area of the Beijing study area increased in ecosystem services value. Spatial differences in ecosystem services values for both 1996 and 2006 are very clear. The center of gravity of total ecosystem services value for the study area moved 32.28 km northwestward over the 10 years due to intensive human intervention taking place in southeast Beijing. The authors suggest that policy-makers should pay greater attention to ecological protection under conditions of rapid socio-economic development and increase the area of green belt in the southeastern part of Beijing.

  18. New Genes in Traditional Seed Systems: Diffusion, Detectability and Persistence of Transgenes in a Maize Metapopulation

    PubMed Central

    van Heerwaarden, Joost; Ortega Del Vecchyo, Diego; Alvarez-Buylla, Elena R.; Bellon, Mauricio R.

    2012-01-01

    Gene flow of transgenes into non-target populations is an important biosafety concern. The case of genetically modified (GM) maize in Mexico has been of particular interest because of the country’s status as center of origin and landrace diversity. In contrast to maize in the U.S. and Europe, Mexican landraces form part of an evolving metapopulation in which new genes are subject to evolutionary processes of drift, gene flow and selection. Although these processes are affected by seed management and particularly seed flow, there has been little study into the population genetics of transgenes under traditional seed management. Here, we combine recently compiled data on seed management practices with a spatially explicit population genetic model to evaluate the importance of seed flow as a determinant of the long-term fate of transgenes in traditional seed systems. Seed flow between farmers leads to a much wider diffusion of transgenes than expected by pollen movement alone, but a predominance of seed replacement over seed mixing lowers the probability of detection due to a relative lack of homogenization in spatial frequencies. We find that in spite of the spatial complexities of the modeled system, persistence probabilities under positive selection are estimated quite well by existing theory. Our results have important implications concerning the feasibility of long term transgene monitoring and control in traditional seed systems. PMID:23056246

  19. A Spatially Explicit and Seasonally Varying Cholera Prevalence Model With Distributed Macro-Scale Environmental and Hydroclimatic Forcings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A. S.; Eltahir, E. A.; Islam, S.

    2011-12-01

    Despite major advances in the ecological and microbiological understanding of the bacterium Vibrio cholerae, the role of underlying large-scale processes in the progression of the cholera disease in space and time is not well understood. Here, we present a spatially explicit and seasonally varying coupled hydroclimatology-epidemiology model for understanding regional scale cholera prevalence in response to large scale hydroclimatic and environmental forcings. Our results show that environmental cholera transmission can be modulated by two spatially and seasonally distinct mechanisms - influenced by dry and wet season hydrologic determinants. The model is applied to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basin areas in Bangladesh to simulate spatially explicit cholera prevalence rates, and validated with long-term cholera data from Dhaka and shorter-term records from regional surveillance locations. The model reproduces the variability of cholera prevalence at monthly, seasonal, and interannual timescales and highlights the role of asymmetric large scale hydroclimatic processes as the dominant controls. Our findings have important implications for formulating effective cholera intervention strategies, and for understanding the impacts of changing climate patterns on seasonal cholera transmission.

  20. Spatially explicit modeling of 1992-2100 land cover and forest stand age for the conterminous United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sohl, Terry L.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Friesz, Aaron M.; Bennett, Stacie L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Wilson, Tamara; Knuppe, Michelle; Van Hofwegen, Travis

    2014-01-01

    Information on future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is needed to analyze the impact of LULC change on ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey has produced spatially explicit, thematically detailed LULC projections for the conterminous United States. Four qualitative and quantitative scenarios of LULC change were developed, with characteristics consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on 5 Emission Scenarios (SRES). The four quantified scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) served as input to the Forecasting Scenarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) model. Four spatially explicit datasets consistent with scenario storylines were produced for the conterminous United States, with annual LULC maps from 1992 through 2100. The future projections are characterized by a loss of natural land covers in most scenarios, with corresponding expansion of 10 anthropogenic land uses. Along with the loss of natural land covers, remaining natural land covers experience increased fragmentation under most scenarios, with only the B2 scenario remaining relatively stable in both proportion of remaining natural land covers and basic fragmentation measures. Forest stand age was also modeled. By 2100, scenarios and ecoregions with heavy forest cutting have relatively lower mean stand ages compared to those with less 15 forest cutting. Stand ages differ substantially between unprotected and protected forest lands, as well as between different forest classes. The modeled data were compared to the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and other data sources to assess model characteristics. The consistent, spatially explicit, and thematically detailed LULC projections and the associated forest stand age data layers have been used to analyze LULC impacts on carbon and greenhouse gas fluxes, 20 biodiversity, climate and weather variability, hydrologic change, and other ecological processes.

  1. USE OF HABITAT-CONTAMINATION SPATIAL CORRELATION TO DETERMINE WHEN TO PERFORM A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Anthropogenic contamination is typically distributed heterogeneously through space. This spatial structure can have different effects on the cumulative doses of individuals exposed to contamination within the environment. These effects are accentuated when individuals pursue di...

  2. Use of spatially explicit physicochemical data to measure downstream impacts of headwater stream disturbance

    EPA Science Inventory

    Regulatory agencies need methods to quantify the influence of headwater streams on downstream water quality as a result of litigation surrounding jurisdictional criteria and the influence of mountaintop removal coal mining activities. We collected comprehensive, spatially-referen...

  3. REVIEW OF SIMULATION METHODS FOR SPATIALLY-EXPLICIT POPULATION-LEVEL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Factors that significantly impact population dynamics, such as resource availability and exposure to stressors, frequently vary over space and thereby determine the heterogeneous spatial distributions of organisms. Considering this fact, the US Environmental Protection Agency's ...

  4. A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT HIERARCHICAL APPROACH TO MODELING COMPLEX ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS. (R827676)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological systems are generally considered among the most complex because they are characterized by a large number of diverse components, nonlinear interactions, scale multiplicity, and spatial heterogeneity. Hierarchy theory, as well as empirical evidence, suggests that comp...

  5. The Value of Simple Models: Performance of a Spatially-explicit Seasonal Model for Valuing Water Provisioning (InVEST)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamel, P.; Guswa, A. J.; Wemple, B. C.; Mohammed, I. N.; Sharp, R.

    2015-12-01

    Valuing hydrologic ecosystem services (ES) requires a truly integrated approach, linking knowledge of hydrologic processes to that of the socio-economic context of a region. Although both the hydrological and socio-economic dimensions are complex, practitioners need simple and credible models to address pressing questions brought by global change. We developed such a model for the supply, service, and value of water provisioning; available to the ES community through the open-source InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosytem Services and Trade-offs) software. The model is characterized by i) low data requirements, with the aim of being applied in data-scarce environments; ii) spatially-explicit outputs, to easily address spatial planning questions; iii) a seasonal time-step, representing a compromise between data knowledge and ability to address season-dependent questions (water supply for irrigation, hydropower production); iv) explicit representation of beneficiaries, to facilitate valuation of the provisioning service for different groups; v) flexible valuation framework, to address a variety of ES questions. The model theory is based on the recent advances in hydrology, using the "limits" concept for water balance modeling and spatial indices for subsurface and surface runoff. We tested the model performance in the Mad River catchment, Vermont, USA, comparing its results with the data-intensive RHESSys model for two typical ES questions: the identification of hotspots of service and valuation of the provisioning service for hydropower production. Uncertainty analyses, including sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo analyses, were performed to quantify uncertainty in both hydrological outputs and service provisioning, and improve guidance for users. We present these results through a range of spatial and non-spatial outputs, emphasizing the importance of results interpretation and visualization for ES assessments.

  6. USING THE ECLPSS SOFTWARE ENVIRONMENT TO BUILD A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT COMPONENT-BASED MODEL OF OZONE EFFECTS ON FOREST ECOSYSTEMS. (R827958)

    EPA Science Inventory

    We have developed a modeling framework to support grid-based simulation of ecosystems at multiple spatial scales, the Ecological Component Library for Parallel Spatial Simulation (ECLPSS). ECLPSS helps ecologists to build robust spatially explicit simulations of ...

  7. A Watershed-based spatially-explicit demonstration of an Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework for Ecosystem Services in the Coal River Basin (WV, USA)

    EPA Science Inventory

    We demonstrate a spatially-explicit regional assessment of current condition of aquatic ecoservices in the Coal River Basin (CRB), with limited sensitivity analysis for the atmospheric contaminant mercury. The integrated modeling framework (IMF) forecasts water quality and quant...

  8. Spatially-explicit matrix models. A mathematical analysis of stage-structured integrodifference equations.

    PubMed

    Lutscher, Frithjof; Lewis, Mark A

    2004-03-01

    This paper is concerned with mathematical analysis of the 'critical domain-size' problem for structured populations. Space is introduced explicitly into matrix models for stage-structured populations. Movement of individuals is described by means of a dispersal kernel. The mathematical analysis investigates conditions for existence, stability and uniqueness of equilibrium solutions as well as some bifurcation behaviors. These mathematical results are linked to species persistence or extinction in connected habitats of different sizes or fragmented habitats; hence the framework is given for application of such models to ecology. Several approximations which reduce the complexity of integrodifference equations are given. A simple example is worked out to illustrate the analytical results and to compare the behavior of the integrodifference model to that of the approximations.

  9. Spatially explicit assessment of estuarine fish after Deepwater Horizon oil spill: trade-off in complexity and parsimony.

    PubMed

    Awkerman, Jill A; Hemmer, Becky; Almario, Alex; Lilavois, Crystal; Barron, Mace G; Raimondo, Sandy

    2016-09-01

    Evaluating long-term contaminant effects on wildlife populations depends on spatial information about habitat quality, heterogeneity in contaminant exposure, and sensitivities and distributions of species integrated into a systems modeling approach. Rarely is this information readily available, making it difficult to determine the applicability of realistic models to quantify population-level risks. To evaluate the trade-offs between data demands and increased specificity of spatially explicit models for population-level risk assessments, we developed a model for a standard toxicity test species, the sheepshead minnow (Cyprinodon variegatus), exposed to oil contamination following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and compared the output with various levels of model complexity to a standard risk quotient approach. The model uses habitat and fish occupancy data collected over five sampling periods throughout 2008-2010 in Pensacola and Choctawhatchee Bays, Florida, USA, to predict species distribution, field-collected and publically available data on oil distribution and concentration, and chronic toxicity data from laboratory assays applied to a matrix population model. The habitat suitability model established distribution of fish within Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA, and the population model projected the dynamics of the species in the study area over a 5-yr period (October 2009-September 2014). Vital rates were modified according to estimated contaminant concentrations to simulate oil exposure effects. To evaluate the differences in levels of model complexity, simulations varied from temporally and spatially explicit, including seasonal variation and location-specific oiling, to simple interpretations of a risk quotient derived for the study area. The results of this study indicate that species distribution, as well as spatially and temporally variable contaminant concentrations, can provide a more ecologically relevant evaluation of species recovery from

  10. Comparing spatially explicit ecological and social values for natural areas to identify effective conservation strategies.

    PubMed

    Bryan, Brett Anthony; Raymond, Christopher Mark; Crossman, Neville David; King, Darran

    2011-02-01

    Consideration of the social values people assign to relatively undisturbed native ecosystems is critical for the success of science-based conservation plans. We used an interview process to identify and map social values assigned to 31 ecosystem services provided by natural areas in an agricultural landscape in southern Australia. We then modeled the spatial distribution of 12 components of ecological value commonly used in setting spatial conservation priorities. We used the analytical hierarchy process to weight these components and used multiattribute utility theory to combine them into a single spatial layer of ecological value. Social values assigned to natural areas were negatively correlated with ecological values overall, but were positively correlated with some components of ecological value. In terms of the spatial distribution of values, people valued protected areas, whereas those natural areas underrepresented in the reserve system were of higher ecological value. The habitats of threatened animal species were assigned both high ecological value and high social value. Only small areas were assigned both high ecological value and high social value in the study area, whereas large areas of high ecological value were of low social value, and vice versa. We used the assigned ecological and social values to identify different conservation strategies (e.g., information sharing, community engagement, incentive payments) that may be effective for specific areas. We suggest that consideration of both ecological and social values in selection of conservation strategies can enhance the success of science-based conservation planning.

  11. Spatially explicit rangeland erosion monitoring using high-resolution digital aerial imagery

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Nearly all of the ecosystem services supported by rangelands, including production of livestock forage, carbon sequestration, and provisioning of clean water, are negatively impacted by soil erosion. Accordingly, monitoring the severity, spatial extent, and rate of soil erosion is essential for long...

  12. Spatially explicit West Nile virus risk modeling in Santa Clara County, California

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A previously created Geographic Information Systems model designed to identify regions of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission risk is tested and calibrated in Santa Clara County, California. American Crows that died from WNV infection in 2005 provide the spatial and temporal ground truth. Model param...

  13. Spatially Explicit West Nile Virus Risk Modeling in Santa Clara County, CA

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A geographic information systems model designed to identify regions of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission risk was tested and calibrated with data collected in Santa Clara County, California. American Crows that died from WNV infection in 2005, provided spatial and temporal ground truth. When the mo...

  14. SEHR-ECHO v1.0: a Spatially-Explicit Hydrologic Response model for ecohydrologic applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaefli, B.; Nicótina, L.; Imfeld, C.; Da Ronco, P.; Bertuzzo, E.; Rinaldo, A.

    2014-03-01

    This paper presents the Spatially-Explicit Hydrologic Response (SEHR) model developed at the Laboratory of Ecohydrology of the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne for the simulation of hydrological processes at the catchment scale. The key concept of the model is the formulation of water transport by geomorphologic travel time distributions through gravity-driven transitions among geomorphic states: the mobilization of water (and possibly dissolved solutes) is simulated at the sub-catchment scale and the resulting responses are convolved with the travel paths distribution within the river network to obtain the hydrologic response at the catchment outlet. The model thus breaks down the complexity of the hydrologic response into an explicit geomorphological combination of dominant spatial patterns of precipitation input and of hydrologic process controls. Nonstationarity and nonlinearity effects are tackled through soil moisture dynamics in the active soil layer. We present here the basic model set-up for precipitation-runoff simulation. The performance of the model is illustrated for a snow-dominated catchment in Switzerland with a small glacier cover.

  15. Evaluation of and insights from ALFISH: a spatially explicit landscape-level simulation of fish populations in the Everglades

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gaff, Holly; Chick, John; Trexler, Joel; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Gross, Louis; Salinas, Rene

    2004-01-01

    We present an evaluation of a spatially explicit, age-structured model created to assess fish density dynamics in the Florida Everglades area. This model, ALFISH, has been used to compare alternative management scenarios for the Florida Everglades region. This area is characterized by periodic dry downs and refloodings. ALFISH uses spatially explicit water depth data to predict patterns of fish density. Here we present a method for calibration of ALFISH, based on information concerning fish movement, pond locations and other field data. With the current information, the greatest coefficient of determination achieved from regressions of ALFISH output to field data is 0.35 for fish density and 0.88 for water depth. The poor predictability of fish density mirrors the empirical findings that hydrology, which is the main driver of the model, only accounts for 20–40% of the variance of fish densities across the Everglades landscape. Sensitivity analyses indicate that fish in this system are very sensitive to frequency, size and location of permanent ponds as well as availability of prey.

  16. Systems Modeling at Multiple Levels of Regulation: Linking Systems and Genetic Networks to Spatially Explicit Plant Populations

    PubMed Central

    Kitchen, James L.; Allaby, Robin G.

    2013-01-01

    Selection and adaptation of individuals to their underlying environments are highly dynamical processes, encompassing interactions between the individual and its seasonally changing environment, synergistic or antagonistic interactions between individuals and interactions amongst the regulatory genes within the individual. Plants are useful organisms to study within systems modeling because their sedentary nature simplifies interactions between individuals and the environment, and many important plant processes such as germination or flowering are dependent on annual cycles which can be disrupted by climate behavior. Sedentism makes plants relevant candidates for spatially explicit modeling that is tied in with dynamical environments. We propose that in order to fully understand the complexities behind plant adaptation, a system that couples aspects from systems biology with population and landscape genetics is required. A suitable system could be represented by spatially explicit individual-based models where the virtual individuals are located within time-variable heterogeneous environments and contain mutable regulatory gene networks. These networks could directly interact with the environment, and should provide a useful approach to studying plant adaptation. PMID:27137364

  17. Metapopulation dynamics and the evolution of dispersal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parvinen, Kalle

    A metapopulation consists of local populations living in habitat patches. In this chapter metapopulation dynamics and the evolution of dispersal is studied in two metapopulation models defined in discrete time. In the first model there are finitely many patches, and in the other one there are infinitely many patches, which allows to incorporate catastrophes into the model. In the first model, cyclic local population dynamics can be either synchronized or not, and increasing dispersal both synchronizes and stabilizes metapopulation dynamics. On the other hand, the type of dynamics has a strong effect on the evolution of dispersal. In case of non-synchronized metapopulation dynamics, dispersal is much more beneficial than in the case of synchronized metapopulation dynamics. Local dynamics has a substantial effect also on the possibility of evolutionary branching in both models. Furthermore, with an Allee effect in the local dynamics of the second model, even evolutionary suicide can occur. It is an evolutionary process in which a viable population adapts in such a way that it can no longer persist.

  18. Landscape genomics of Sphaeralcea ambigua in the Mojave Desert: a multivariate, spatially-explicit approach to guide ecological restoration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shryock, Daniel F.; Havrilla, Caroline A.; DeFalco, Lesley; Esque, Todd C.; Custer, Nathan; Wood, Troy E.

    2015-01-01

    Local adaptation influences plant species’ responses to climate change and their performance in ecological restoration. Fine-scale physiological or phenological adaptations that direct demographic processes may drive intraspecific variability when baseline environmental conditions change. Landscape genomics characterize adaptive differentiation by identifying environmental drivers of adaptive genetic variability and mapping the associated landscape patterns. We applied such an approach to Sphaeralcea ambigua, an important restoration plant in the arid southwestern United States, by analyzing variation at 153 amplified fragment length polymorphism loci in the context of environmental gradients separating 47 Mojave Desert populations. We identified 37 potentially adaptive loci through a combination of genome scan approaches. We then used a generalized dissimilarity model (GDM) to relate variability in potentially adaptive loci with spatial gradients in temperature, precipitation, and topography. We identified non-linear thresholds in loci frequencies driven by summer maximum temperature and water stress, along with continuous variation corresponding to temperature seasonality. Two GDM-based approaches for mapping predicted patterns of local adaptation are compared. Additionally, we assess uncertainty in spatial interpolations through a novel spatial bootstrapping approach. Our study presents robust, accessible methods for deriving spatially-explicit models of adaptive genetic variability in non-model species that will inform climate change modelling and ecological restoration.

  19. Spatially explicit control of invasive species using a reaction-diffusion model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bonneau, Mathieu; Johnson, Fred A.; Romagosa, Christina M.

    2016-01-01

    Invasive species, which can be responsible for severe economic and environmental damages, must often be managed over a wide area with limited resources, and the optimal allocation of effort in space and time can be challenging. If the spatial range of the invasive species is large, control actions might be applied only on some parcels of land, for example because of property type, accessibility, or limited human resources. Selecting the locations for control is critical and can significantly impact management efficiency. To help make decisions concerning the spatial allocation of control actions, we propose a simulation based approach, where the spatial distribution of the invader is approximated by a reaction–diffusion model. We extend the classic Fisher equation to incorporate the effect of control both in the diffusion and local growth of the invader. The modified reaction–diffusion model that we propose accounts for the effect of control, not only on the controlled locations, but on neighboring locations, which are based on the theoretical speed of the invasion front. Based on simulated examples, we show the superiority of our model compared to the state-of-the-art approach. We illustrate the use of this model for the management of Burmese pythons in the Everglades (Florida, USA). Thanks to the generality of the modified reaction–diffusion model, this framework is potentially suitable for a wide class of management problems and provides a tool for managers to predict the effects of different management strategies.

  20. imVisIR - spatially explicit characterisation of soil organic matter quality on the pedon scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steffens, Markus; Kohlpaintner, Michael; Buddenbaum, Henning

    2014-05-01

    Organic matter (OM) is an important soil component controlling many chemical and physical properties ranging from nutrient and pollutant sorption to aggregate stability and water holding capacity. Advanced techniques and sophisticated methods have been developed to characterise and separate qualitatively different fractions of SOM. Despite its importance and the technical progress, two main deficiencies still constrain the comprehensive analysis of OM quantity and quality in soils: 1) Most of the techniques (e.g. solid state 13C NMR spectroscopy or fourier-transformed infrared spectroscopy) are destructive so that the sample is lost after the measurement; and 2) SOM quantity and quality generally show a heterogeneous spatial distribution across many scales which is not considered in an adequate way in most studies since the analytical techniques require substantial amounts of soil material impeding the sampling of small structures. The natural arrangement of particles is disturbed and information about the spatial variability and association with other particles is lost. Therefore, an imaging technique that non-destructively measures SOM quantity and quality with a high spatial resolution on the pedon scale is needed. We show the potential of laboratory imaging Vis-NIR spectroscopy for the qualitative mapping of SOM on the pedon scale.

  1. Integrating landscape genomics and spatially explicit approaches to detect loci under selection in clinal populations.

    PubMed

    Jones, Matthew R; Forester, Brenna R; Teufel, Ashley I; Adams, Rachael V; Anstett, Daniel N; Goodrich, Betsy A; Landguth, Erin L; Joost, Stéphane; Manel, Stéphanie

    2013-12-01

    Uncovering the genetic basis of adaptation hinges on the ability to detect loci under selection. However, population genomics outlier approaches to detect selected loci may be inappropriate for clinal populations or those with unclear population structure because they require that individuals be clustered into populations. An alternate approach, landscape genomics, uses individual-based approaches to detect loci under selection and reveal potential environmental drivers of selection. We tested four landscape genomics methods on a simulated clinal population to determine their effectiveness at identifying a locus under varying selection strengths along an environmental gradient. We found all methods produced very low type I error rates across all selection strengths, but elevated type II error rates under "weak" selection. We then applied these methods to an AFLP genome scan of an alpine plant, Campanula barbata, and identified five highly supported candidate loci associated with precipitation variables. These loci also showed spatial autocorrelation and cline patterns indicative of selection along a precipitation gradient. Our results suggest that landscape genomics in combination with other spatial analyses provides a powerful approach for identifying loci potentially under selection and explaining spatially complex interactions between species and their environment.

  2. Synchrony in Metapopulations with Sporadic Dispersal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeter, Russell; Belykh, Igor

    2015-06-01

    We study synchronization in ecological networks under the realistic assumption that the coupling among the patches is sporadic/stochastic and due to rare and short-term meteorological conditions. Each patch is described by a tritrophic food chain model, representing the producer, consumer, and predator. If all three species can migrate, we rigorously prove that the network can synchronize as long as the migration occurs frequently, i.e. fast compared to the period of the ecological cycle, even though the network is disconnected most of the time. In the case where only the top trophic level (i.e. the predator) can migrate, we reveal an unexpected range of intermediate switching frequencies where synchronization becomes stable in a network which switches between two nonsynchronous dynamics. As spatial synchrony increases the danger of extinction, this counterintuitive effect of synchrony emerging from slower switching dispersal can be destructive for overall metapopulation persistence, presumably expected from switching between two dynamics which are unfavorable to extinction.

  3. Agro-hydrology and multi temporal high resolution remote sensing: toward an explicit spatial processes calibration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferrant, S.; Gascoin, S.; Veloso, A.; Salmon-Monviola, J.; Claverie, M.; Rivalland, V.; Dedieu, G.; Demarez, V.; Ceschia, E.; Probst, J.-L.; Durand, P.; Bustillo, V.

    2014-07-01

    The recent and forthcoming availability of high resolution satellite image series offers new opportunities in agro-hydrological research and modeling. We investigated the perspective offered by improving the crop growth dynamic simulation using the distributed agro-hydrological model, Topography based Nitrogen transfer and Transformation (TNT2), using LAI map series derived from 105 Formosat-2 (F2) images during the period 2006-2010. The TNT2 model (Beaujouan et al., 2002), calibrated with discharge and in-stream nitrate fluxes for the period 1985-2001, was tested on the 2006-2010 dataset (climate, land use, agricultural practices, discharge and nitrate fluxes at the outlet). A priori agricultural practices obtained from an extensive field survey such as seeding date, crop cultivar, and fertilizer amount were used as input variables. Continuous values of LAI as a function of cumulative daily temperature were obtained at the crop field level by fitting a double logistic equation against discrete satellite-derived LAI. Model predictions of LAI dynamics with a priori input parameters showed an temporal shift with observed LAI profiles irregularly distributed in space (between field crops) and time (between years). By re-setting seeding date at the crop field level, we proposed an optimization method to minimize efficiently this temporal shift and better fit the crop growth against the spatial observations as well as crop production. This optimization of simulated LAI has a negligible impact on water budget at the catchment scale (1 mm yr-1 in average) but a noticeable impact on in-stream nitrogen fluxes (around 12%) which is of interest considering nitrate stream contamination issues and TNT2 model objectives. This study demonstrates the contribution of forthcoming high spatial and temporal resolution products of Sentinel-2 satellite mission in improving agro-hydrological modeling by constraining the spatial representation of crop productivity.

  4. A novel spatially-explicit condition for the onset of waterborne diseases in complex environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mari, L.; Gatto, M.; Bertuzzo, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Righetto, L.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-12-01

    In spatial models of waterborne infections the condition that all the local reproduction numbers be larger than one is neither necessary nor sufficient for outbreaks to occur. Here, to properly determine epidemic onset conditions, we examine the transition from stable to unstable of the disease-free equilibrium of a system of nonlinear differential equations characterizing the evolution of susceptible and infected individuals within their respective settlements, and pathogen concentration in their accessible environment. Two different network connectivity layers are assumed to link human settlements: hydrologic pathways serve as ecological corridors for pathogens, while human mobility acts as disease vehicle through susceptibles contracting the disease and asymptomatic infectives shedding bacteria at their temporary destinations. We show that an epidemic outbreak can be triggered if the dominant eigenvalue of a generalized reproduction matrix G0, suitably accounting for spatial distribution of human settlements, hydrological pathways for pathogen dispersal and pathogen redistribution mechanisms due to human mobility, is larger than unity. Matrix G0 and its dominant eigenvalue thus replace the usual reproduction number whenever spatial effects on disease propagation cannot be ignored. Conversely, our novel criterion decays into the standard onset condition based on local reproduction numbers in nonspatial settings. By analyzing realistic test cases we show that within a connected network system the disease can start even if all the local reproduction numbers are smaller than unity, or might not start even if all the local reproduction numbers are larger than unity. We also show that onset geography in complex environments is linked to the dominant eigenvector of matrix G0. Applications to cholera outbreaks in developing countries demonstrate that our approach can be successfully used for disease prediction and emergency management.

  5. Spatially explicit predictions of blood parasites in a widely distributed African rainforest bird.

    PubMed

    Sehgal, R N M; Buermann, W; Harrigan, R J; Bonneaud, C; Loiseau, C; Chasar, A; Sepil, I; Valkiūnas, G; Iezhova, T; Saatchi, S; Smith, T B

    2011-04-07

    Critical to the mitigation of parasitic vector-borne diseases is the development of accurate spatial predictions that integrate environmental conditions conducive to pathogen proliferation. Species of Plasmodium and Trypanosoma readily infect humans, and are also common in birds. Here, we develop predictive spatial models for the prevalence of these blood parasites in the olive sunbird (Cyanomitra olivacea). Since this species exhibits high natural parasite prevalence and occupies diverse habitats in tropical Africa, it represents a distinctive ecological model system for studying vector-borne pathogens. We used PCR and microscopy to screen for haematozoa from 28 sites in Central and West Africa. Species distribution models were constructed to associate ground-based and remotely sensed environmental variables with parasite presence. We then used machine-learning algorithm models to identify relationships between parasite prevalence and environmental predictors. Finally, predictive maps were generated by projecting model outputs to geographically unsampled areas. Results indicate that for Plasmodium spp., the maximum temperature of the warmest month was most important in predicting prevalence. For Trypanosoma spp., seasonal canopy moisture variability was the most important predictor. The models presented here visualize gradients of disease prevalence, identify pathogen hotspots and will be instrumental in studying the effects of ecological change on these and other pathogens.

  6. Spatially explicit methane emissions from petroleum production and the natural gas system in California.

    PubMed

    Jeong, Seongeun; Millstein, Dev; Fischer, Marc L

    2014-05-20

    We present a new, spatially resolved inventory of methane (CH4) emissions based on US-EPA emission factors and publically available activity data for 2010 California petroleum production and natural gas production, processing, transmission, and distribution. Compared to official California bottom-up inventories, our initial estimates are 3 to 7 times higher for the petroleum and natural gas production sectors but similar for the natural gas transmission and distribution sectors. Evidence from published "top-down" atmospheric measurement campaigns within Southern California supports our initial emission estimates from production and processing but indicates emission estimates from transmission and distribution are low by a factor of approximately 2. To provide emission maps with more accurate total emissions we scale the spatially resolved inventory by sector-specific results from a Southern California aircraft measurement campaign to all of California. Assuming uncertainties are determined by the uncertainties estimated in the top-down study, our estimated state total CH4 emissions are 541 ± 144 Gg yr(-1) (as compared with 210.7 Gg yr(-1) in California's current official inventory), where the majority of our reported uncertainty is derived from transmission and distribution. We note uncertainties relative to the mean for a given region are likely larger than that for the State total, emphasizing the need for additional measurements in undersampled regions.

  7. Patch definition in metapopulation analysis: a graph theory approach to solve the mega-patch problem.

    PubMed

    Cavanaugh, Kyle C; Siegel, David A; Raimondi, Peter T; Alberto, Filipe

    2014-02-01

    The manner in which patches are delineated in spatially realistic metapopulation models will influence the size, connectivity, and extinction and recolonization dynamics of those patches. Most commonly used patch-definition methods focus on identifying discrete, contiguous patches of habitat from a single temporal observation of species occurrence or from a model of habitat suitability. However, these approaches are not suitable for many metapopulation systems where entire patches may not be fully colonized at a given time. For these metapopulation systems, a single large patch of habitat may actually support multiple, interacting subpopulations. The interactions among these subpopulations will be ignored if the patch is treated as a single unit, a situation we term the "mega-patch problem." Mega-patches are characterized by variable intra-patch synchrony, artificially low inter-patch connectivity, and low extinction rates. One way to detect this problem is by using time series data to calculate demographic synchrony within mega-patches. We present a framework for identifying subpopulations in mega-patches using a combination of spatial autocorrelation and graph theory analyses. We apply our approach to southern California giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) forests using a new, long-term (27 years), satellite-based data set of giant kelp canopy biomass. We define metapopulation patches using our method as well as several other commonly used patch delineation methodologies and examine the colonization and extinction dynamics of the metapopulation under each approach. We find that the relationships between patch characteristics such as area and connectivity and the demographic processes of colonizations and extinctions vary among the different patch-definition methods. Our spatial-analysis/graph-theoretic framework produces results that match theoretical expectations better than the other methods. This approach can be used to identify subpopulations in metapopulations

  8. Integrating spatially explicit indices of abundance and habitat quality: an applied example for greater sage-grouse management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Ricca, Mark A.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Gustafson, K. Benjamin; Overton, Cory T.; Davis, Dawn M.; Niell, Lara E.; Espinosa, Shawn P.; Gardner, Scott C.; Delehanty, David J.

    2016-01-01

    Predictive species distributional models are a cornerstone of wildlife conservation planning. Constructing such models requires robust underpinning science that integrates formerly disparate data types to achieve effective species management. Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus, hereafter “sage-grouse” populations are declining throughout sagebrush-steppe ecosystems in North America, particularly within the Great Basin, which heightens the need for novel management tools that maximize use of available information. Herein, we improve upon existing species distribution models by combining information about sage-grouse habitat quality, distribution, and abundance from multiple data sources. To measure habitat, we created spatially explicit maps depicting habitat selection indices (HSI) informed by > 35 500 independent telemetry locations from > 1600 sage-grouse collected over 15 years across much of the Great Basin. These indices were derived from models that accounted for selection at different spatial scales and seasons. A region-wide HSI was calculated using the HSI surfaces modelled for 12 independent subregions and then demarcated into distinct habitat quality classes. We also employed a novel index to describe landscape patterns of sage-grouse abundance and space use (AUI). The AUI is a probabilistic composite of: (i) breeding density patterns based on the spatial configuration of breeding leks and associated trends in male attendance; and (ii) year-round patterns of space use indexed by the decreasing probability of use with increasing distance to leks. The continuous AUI surface was then reclassified into two classes representing high and low/no use and abundance. Synthesis and applications. Using the example of sage-grouse, we demonstrate how the joint application of indices of habitat selection, abundance, and space use derived from multiple data sources yields a composite map that can guide effective allocation of management intensity across

  9. Integrating spatially explicit indices of abundance and habitat quality: an applied example for greater sage-grouse management.

    PubMed

    Coates, Peter S; Casazza, Michael L; Ricca, Mark A; Brussee, Brianne E; Blomberg, Erik J; Gustafson, K Benjamin; Overton, Cory T; Davis, Dawn M; Niell, Lara E; Espinosa, Shawn P; Gardner, Scott C; Delehanty, David J

    2016-02-01

    Predictive species distributional models are a cornerstone of wildlife conservation planning. Constructing such models requires robust underpinning science that integrates formerly disparate data types to achieve effective species management.Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus, hereafter 'sage-grouse' populations are declining throughout sagebrush-steppe ecosystems in North America, particularly within the Great Basin, which heightens the need for novel management tools that maximize the use of available information.Herein, we improve upon existing species distribution models by combining information about sage-grouse habitat quality, distribution and abundance from multiple data sources. To measure habitat, we created spatially explicit maps depicting habitat selection indices (HSI) informed by >35 500 independent telemetry locations from >1600 sage-grouse collected over 15 years across much of the Great Basin. These indices were derived from models that accounted for selection at different spatial scales and seasons. A region-wide HSI was calculated using the HSI surfaces modelled for 12 independent subregions and then demarcated into distinct habitat quality classes.We also employed a novel index to describe landscape patterns of sage-grouse abundance and space use (AUI). The AUI is a probabilistic composite of the following: (i) breeding density patterns based on the spatial configuration of breeding leks and associated trends in male attendance; and (ii) year-round patterns of space use indexed by the decreasing probability of use with increasing distance to leks. The continuous AUI surface was then reclassified into two classes representing high and low/no use and abundance. Synthesis and applications. Using the example of sage-grouse, we demonstrate how the joint application of indices of habitat selection, abundance and space use derived from multiple data sources yields a composite map that can guide effective allocation of management intensity

  10. Spatially explicit scenario analysis for hydrologic services in an urbanizing agricultural watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, J.; Booth, E.; Carpenter, S. R.; Turner, M.

    2013-12-01

    The sustainability of hydrologic services (benefits to people generated by terrestrial ecosystem effects on freshwater) is challenged by changes in climate and land use. Despite the importance of hydrologic services, few studies have investigated how the provision of ecosystem services related to freshwater quantity and quality may vary in magnitude and spatial pattern for alternative future trajectories. Such analyses may provide useful information for sustaining freshwater resources in the face of a complex and uncertain future. We analyzed the supply of multiple hydrologic services from 2010 to 2070 across a large urbanizing agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest of the United States, and asked the following: (i) What are the potential trajectories for the supply of hydrologic services under contrasting but plausible future scenarios? (ii) Where on the landscape is the delivery of hydrologic services most vulnerable to future changes? The Nested Watershed scenario represents extreme climate change (warmer temperatures and more frequent extreme events) and a concerted response from institutions, whereas in the Investment in Innovation scenario, climate change is less severe and technological innovations play a major role. Despite more extreme climate in the Nested Watershed scenario, all hydrologic services (i.e., freshwater supply, surface water quality, flood regulation) were maintained or enhanced (~30%) compared to the 2010 baseline, by strict government interventions that prioritized freshwater resources. Despite less extreme climate in the Investment in Innovation scenario and advances in green technology, only surface water quality and flood regulation were maintained or increased (~80%); freshwater supply declined by 25%, indicating a potential future tradeoff between water quality and quantity. Spatially, the locations of greatest vulnerability (i.e., decline) differed by service and among scenarios. In the Nested Watershed scenario, although

  11. Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data in a Spatially Explicit Price Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Prince, Stephen D.

    2007-01-01

    Famine early warning organizations use data from multiple disciplines to assess food insecurity of communities and regions in less-developed parts of the World. In this paper we integrate several indicators that are available to enhance the information for preparation for and responses to food security emergencies. The assessment uses a price model based on the relationship between the suitability of the growing season and market prices for coarse grain. The model is then used to create spatially continuous maps of millet prices. The model is applied to the dry central and northern areas of West Africa, using satellite-derived vegetation indices for the entire region. By coupling the model with vegetation data estimated for one to four months into the future, maps are created of a leading indicator of potential price movements. It is anticipated that these maps can be used to enable early warning of famine and for planning appropriate responses.

  12. Improving ecosystem productivity modeling through spatially explicit estimation of optimal light use efficiency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madani, Nima; Kimball, John S.; Affleck, David L. R.; Kattge, Jens; Graham, Jon; Bodegom, Peter M.; Reich, Peter B.; Running, Steven W.

    2014-09-01

    A common assumption of remote sensing-based light use efficiency (LUE) models for estimating vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) is that plants in a biome matrix operate at their photosynthetic capacity under optimal climatic conditions. A prescribed constant biome maximum light use efficiency parameter (LUEmax) defines the maximum photosynthetic carbon conversion rate under these conditions and is a large source of model uncertainty. Here we used tower eddy covariance measurement-based carbon (CO2) fluxes for spatial estimation of optimal LUE (LUEopt) across North America. LUEopt was estimated at 62 Flux Network sites using tower daily carbon fluxes and meteorology, and satellite observed fractional photosynthetically active radiation from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer. A geostatistical model was fitted to 45 flux tower-derived LUEopt data points using independent geospatial environmental variables, including global plant traits, soil moisture, terrain aspect, land cover type, and percent tree cover, and validated at 17 independent tower sites. Estimated LUEopt shows large spatial variability within and among different land cover classes indicated from the sparse tower network. Leaf nitrogen content and soil moisture regime are major factors explaining LUEopt patterns. GPP derived from estimated LUEopt shows significant correlation improvement against tower GPP records (R2 = 76.9%; mean root-mean-square error (RMSE) = 257 g C m-2 yr-1), relative to alternative GPP estimates derived using biome-specific LUEmax constants (R2 = 34.0%; RMSE = 439 g C m-2 yr-1). GPP determined from the LUEopt map also explains a 49.4% greater proportion of tower GPP variability at the independent validation sites and shows promise for improving understanding of LUE patterns and environmental controls and enhancing regional GPP monitoring from satellite remote sensing.

  13. Spatial explicit assessment of rural land abandonment in the Mediterranean area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weissteiner, Christof J.; Boschetti, Mirco; Böttcher, Kristin; Carrara, Paola; Bordogna, Gloria; Brivio, Pietro Alessandro

    2011-10-01

    This study adopts the "syndrome approach", originally defined by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), ( Downing et al., 2002) to assess and map rural land abandonment (RLA), that occurred during the period 1990-2005 within the wider Mediterranean area. The basic idea behind the syndrome approach is to describe change processes by archetypical, dynamic, and co-evolutionary patterns of civilization-nature interactions. In the frame of the Rural Exodus Syndrome the RLA can be interpreted as the occurrence of environmental degradation through the abandonment of traditional agricultural practices. Multi-source spatial data, including biophysical-related variables mainly derived from Earth Observation as well as socio-economical GIS-based data, were used to define proxies for expected underlying processes and drivers of the mentioned syndrome. The analysis of data is rooted in the fuzzy set theory and approximate reasoning techniques which allows for the handling of uncertain and imprecise knowledge of environmental systems. Generalized Conjunction/Disjunction operators (GCD) were applied to compute intermediate indicator score maps representing the conditions that may affect the RLA, and a bipolar operator was used to combine mandatory and favouring conditions with the aim of generating a RLA indicator. The indicator expresses the detailed location and severity, or degree, of the syndrome. The Northern Mediterranean was generally found to suffer from RLA to a distinctly higher degree than the Southern Mediterranean. Reported abandonment studies from the existing literature, the European CORINE land cover map, and the Less Favoured Areas (LFA) map all supported the findings by confirming plausibility through convergence of evidence from comparisons with different types of independent information. This spatially highly-detailed results obtained may be of particular interest to policy and decision makers involved in rural development planning in the

  14. Reducing fertilizer-nitrogen losses from rowcrop landscapes: Insights and implications from a spatially explicit watershed model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McLellan, Eileen; Schilling, Keith; Robertson, Dale

    2015-01-01

    We present conceptual and quantitative models that predict changes in fertilizer-derived nitrogen delivery from rowcrop landscapes caused by agricultural conservation efforts implemented to reduce nutrient inputs and transport and increase nutrient retention in the landscape. To evaluate the relative importance of changes in the sources, transport, and sinks of fertilizer-derived nitrogen across a region, we use the spatially explicit SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes watershed model to map the distribution, at the small watershed scale within the Upper Mississippi-Ohio River Basin (UMORB), of: (1) fertilizer inputs; (2) nutrient attenuation during delivery of those inputs to the UMORB outlet; and (3) nitrogen export from the UMORB outlet. Comparing these spatial distributions suggests that the amount of fertilizer input and degree of nutrient attenuation are both important in determining the extent of nitrogen export. From a management perspective, this means that agricultural conservation efforts to reduce nitrogen export would benefit by: (1) expanding their focus to include activities that restore and enhance nutrient processing in these highly altered landscapes; and (2) targeting specific types of best management practices to watersheds where they will be most valuable. Doing so successfully may result in a shift in current approaches to conservation planning, outreach, and funding.

  15. The effects of connectivity on metapopulation persistence: network symmetry and degree correlations.

    PubMed

    Shtilerman, Elad; Stone, Lewi

    2015-05-07

    A spatial metapopulation is a mosaic of interconnected patch populations. The complex routes of colonization between the patches are governed by the metapopulation's dispersal network. Over the past two decades, there has been considerable interest in uncovering the effects of dispersal network topology and its symmetry on metapopulation persistence. While most studies find that the level of symmetry in dispersal pattern enhances persistence, some have reached the conclusion that symmetry has at most a minor effect. In this work, we present a new perspective on the debate. We study properties of the in- and out-degree distribution of patches in the metapopulation which define the number of dispersal routes into and out of a particular patch, respectively. By analysing the spectral radius of the dispersal matrices, we confirm that a higher level of symmetry has only a marginal impact on persistence. We continue to analyse different properties of the in-out degree distribution, namely the 'in-out degree correlation' (IODC) and degree heterogeneity, and find their relationship to metapopulation persistence. Our analysis shows that, in contrast to symmetry, the in-out degree distribution and particularly, the IODC are dominant factors controlling persistence.

  16. Demographic stochasticity reduces the synchronizing effect of dispersal in predator-prey metapopulations.

    PubMed

    Simonis, Joseph L

    2012-07-01

    Dispersal may affect predator-prey metapopulations by rescuing local sink populations from extinction or by synchronizing population dynamics across the metapopulation, increasing the risk of regional extinction. Dispersal is likely influenced by demographic stochasticity, however, particularly because dispersal rates are often very low in metapopulations. Yet the effects of demographic stochasticity on predator-prey metapopulations are not well known. To that end, I constructed three models of a two-patch predator-prey system. The models constitute a hierarchy of complexity, allowing direct comparisons. Two models included demographic stochasticity (pure jump process [PJP] and stochastic differential equations [SDE]), and the third was deterministic (ordinary differential equations [ODE]). One stochastic model (PJP) treated population sizes as discrete, while the other (SDE) allowed population sizes to change continuously. Both stochastic models only produced synchronized predator-prey dynamics when dispersal was high for both trophic levels. Frequent dispersal by only predators or prey in the PJP and SDE spatially decoupled the trophic interaction, reducing synchrony of the non-dispersive species. Conversely, the ODE generated synchronized predator-prey dynamics across all dispersal rates, except when initial conditions produced anti-phase transients. These results indicate that demographic stochasticity strongly reduces the synchronizing effect of dispersal, which is ironic because demographic stochasticity is often invoked post hoc as a driver of extinctions in synchronized metapopulations.

  17. Identification of metapopulation dynamics among Northern Goshawks of the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and Coastal British Columbia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; McClaren, Erica L.; Doyle, Frank I.; Titus, K.; Sage, George K.; Wilson, Robert E.; Gust, Judy R.; Talbot, Sandra L.

    2012-01-01

    Northern Goshawks occupying the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and coastal British Columbia nest primarily in old-growth and mature forest, which results in spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of individuals across the landscape. We used microsatellite and mitochondrial data to infer genetic structure, gene flow, and fluctuations in population demography through evolutionary time. Patterns in the genetic signatures were used to assess predictions associated with the three population models: panmixia, metapopulation, and isolated populations. Population genetic structure was observed along with asymmetry in gene flow estimates that changed directionality at different temporal scales, consistent with metapopulation model predictions. Therefore, Northern Goshawk assemblages located in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia interact through a metapopulation framework, though they may not fit the classic model of a metapopulation. Long-term population sources (coastal mainland British Columbia) and sinks (Revillagigedo and Vancouver islands) were identified. However, there was no trend through evolutionary time in the directionality of dispersal among the remaining assemblages, suggestive of a rescue-effect dynamic. Admiralty, Douglas, and Chichagof island complex appears to be an evolutionarily recent source population in the Alexander Archipelago. In addition, Kupreanof island complex and Kispiox Forest District populations have high dispersal rates to populations in close geographic proximity and potentially serve as local source populations. Metapopulation dynamics occurring in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia by Northern Goshawks highlight the importance of both occupied and unoccupied habitats to long-term population persistence of goshawks in this region.

  18. Multi-variate spatial explicit constraining of a large scale hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rakovec, Oldrich; Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis

    2016-04-01

    model parameters leads to considerable changes in the partitioning of precipitation into runoff components, while maintaining total runoff estimates unaltered. Objective functions that take into account the spatial patters of GRACE estimates perform better than those constrained only against discharge. Improvements in parameter estimation based on multiple data sources will enhance the community efforts towards spatially consistent large scale seamless predictions. Reference: Rakovec, O., Kumar, R., Mai, J., Cuntz, M., Thober, S., Zink, M., Attinger, S., Schäfer, D., Schrön, M., Samaniego, L. (2016): Multiscale and multivariate evaluation of water fluxes and states over European river basins, J. Hydrometeorol., 17, 287-307, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-15-0054.1.

  19. Spatially explicit modeling of blackbird abundance in the Prairie Pothole Region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Forcey, Greg M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Linz, George M.; McKann, Patrick C.; Crimmins, Shawn M.

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge of factors influencing animal abundance is important to wildlife biologists developing management plans. This is especially true for economically important species such as blackbirds (Icteridae), which cause more than $100 million in crop damages annually in the United States. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, the National Land Cover Dataset, and the National Climatic Data Center, we modeled effects of regional environmental variables on relative abundance of 3 blackbird species (red-winged blackbird,Agelaius phoeniceus; yellow-headed blackbird, Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus; common grackle, Quiscalus quiscula) in the Prairie Pothole Region of the central United States. We evaluated landscape covariates at 3 logarithmically related spatial scales (1,000 ha, 10,000 ha, and 100,000 ha) and modeled weather variables at the 100,000-ha scale. We constructed models a priori using information from published habitat associations. We fit models with WinBUGS using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Both landscape and weather variables contributed strongly to predicting blackbird relative abundance (95% credibility interval did not overlap 0). Variables with the strongest associations with blackbird relative abundance were the percentage of wetland area and precipitation amount from the year before bird surveys were conducted. The influence of spatial scale appeared small—models with the same variables expressed at different scales were often in the best model subset. This large-scale study elucidated regional effects of weather and landscape variables, suggesting that management strategies aimed at reducing damages caused by these species should consider the broader landscape, including weather effects, because such factors may outweigh the influence of localized conditions or site-specific management actions. The regional species distributional models we developed for blackbirds provide a tool for understanding these broader

  20. Analyzing key constraints to biogas production from crop residues and manure in the EU—A spatially explicit model

    PubMed Central

    Persson, U. Martin

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a spatially explicit method for making regional estimates of the potential for biogas production from crop residues and manure, accounting for key technical, biochemical, environmental and economic constraints. Methods for making such estimates are important as biofuels from agricultural residues are receiving increasing policy support from the EU and major biogas producers, such as Germany and Italy, in response to concerns over unintended negative environmental and social impacts of conventional biofuels. This analysis comprises a spatially explicit estimate of crop residue and manure production for the EU at 250 m resolution, and a biogas production model accounting for local constraints such as the sustainable removal of residues, transportation of substrates, and the substrates’ biochemical suitability for anaerobic digestion. In our base scenario, the EU biogas production potential from crop residues and manure is about 0.7 EJ/year, nearly double the current EU production of biogas from agricultural substrates, most of which does not come from residues or manure. An extensive sensitivity analysis of the model shows that the potential could easily be 50% higher or lower, depending on the stringency of economic, technical and biochemical constraints. We find that the potential is particularly sensitive to constraints on the substrate mixtures’ carbon-to-nitrogen ratio and dry matter concentration. Hence, the potential to produce biogas from crop residues and manure in the EU depends to large extent on the possibility to overcome the challenges associated with these substrates, either by complementing them with suitable co-substrates (e.g. household waste and energy crops), or through further development of biogas technology (e.g. pretreatment of substrates and recirculation of effluent). PMID:28141827

  1. Analyzing key constraints to biogas production from crop residues and manure in the EU-A spatially explicit model.

    PubMed

    Einarsson, Rasmus; Persson, U Martin

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a spatially explicit method for making regional estimates of the potential for biogas production from crop residues and manure, accounting for key technical, biochemical, environmental and economic constraints. Methods for making such estimates are important as biofuels from agricultural residues are receiving increasing policy support from the EU and major biogas producers, such as Germany and Italy, in response to concerns over unintended negative environmental and social impacts of conventional biofuels. This analysis comprises a spatially explicit estimate of crop residue and manure production for the EU at 250 m resolution, and a biogas production model accounting for local constraints such as the sustainable removal of residues, transportation of substrates, and the substrates' biochemical suitability for anaerobic digestion. In our base scenario, the EU biogas production potential from crop residues and manure is about 0.7 EJ/year, nearly double the current EU production of biogas from agricultural substrates, most of which does not come from residues or manure. An extensive sensitivity analysis of the model shows that the potential could easily be 50% higher or lower, depending on the stringency of economic, technical and biochemical constraints. We find that the potential is particularly sensitive to constraints on the substrate mixtures' carbon-to-nitrogen ratio and dry matter concentration. Hence, the potential to produce biogas from crop residues and manure in the EU depends to large extent on the possibility to overcome the challenges associated with these substrates, either by complementing them with suitable co-substrates (e.g. household waste and energy crops), or through further development of biogas technology (e.g. pretreatment of substrates and recirculation of effluent).

  2. Spatially explicit simulation of hydrologically controlled carbon and nitrogen cycles and associated feedback mechanisms in a boreal ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Govind, Ajit; Chen, Jing Ming; Ju, Weimin

    2009-06-01

    Ecosystem models that simulate biogeochemical processes usually ignore hydrological controls that govern them. It is quite possible that topographically driven water fluxes significantly influence the spatial distribution of C sources and sinks because of their large contribution to the local water balance. To investigate this, we simulated biogeochemical processes along with the associated feedback mechanisms in a boreal ecosystem using a spatially explicit hydroecological model, boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS)-TerrainLab V2.0, that has a tight coupling of ecophysiological, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes. First, the simulated dynamics of snowpack, soil temperature, net ecosystem productivity (NEP), and total ecosystem respiration (TER) were validated with high-frequency measurements for 2 years. The model was able to explain 80% of the variability in NEP and 84% of the variability in TER. Further, we investigated the influence of topographically driven subsurface base flow on soil C and N cycling and on the spatiotemporal patterns of C sources and sinks using three hydrological modeling scenarios that differed in hydrological conceptualizations. In general, the scenarios that had nonexplicit hydrological representation overestimated NEP, as opposed to the scenario that had an explicit (realistic) representation. The key processes controlling the NEP differences were attributed to the combined effects of variations in photosynthesis (due to changes in stomatal conductance and nitrogen (N) availability), heterotrophic respiration, and autotrophic respiration, all of which occur simultaneously affecting NEP. Feedback relationships were also found to exacerbate the differences. We identified six types of NEP differences (biases), of which the most commonly found was due to an underestimation of the existing C sources, highlighting the vulnerability of regional-scale ecosystem models that ignore hydrological processes.

  3. An empirical evaluation of camera trapping and spatially explicit capture-recapture models for estimating chimpanzee density.

    PubMed

    Després-Einspenner, Marie-Lyne; Howe, Eric J; Drapeau, Pierre; Kühl, Hjalmar S

    2017-03-07

    Empirical validations of survey methods for estimating animal densities are rare, despite the fact that only an application to a population of known density can demonstrate their reliability under field conditions and constraints. Here, we present a field validation of camera trapping in combination with spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) methods for enumerating chimpanzee populations. We used 83 camera traps to sample a habituated community of western chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes verus) of known community and territory size in Taï National Park, Ivory Coast, and estimated community size and density using spatially explicit capture-recapture models. We aimed to: (1) validate camera trapping as a means to collect capture-recapture data for chimpanzees; (2) validate SECR methods to estimate chimpanzee density from camera trap data; (3) compare the efficacy of targeting locations frequently visited by chimpanzees versus deploying cameras according to a systematic design; (4) evaluate the performance of SECR estimators with reduced sampling effort; and (5) identify sources of heterogeneity in detection probabilities. Ten months of camera trapping provided abundant capture-recapture data. All weaned individuals were detected, most of them multiple times, at both an array of targeted locations, and a systematic grid of cameras positioned randomly within the study area, though detection probabilities were higher at targeted locations. SECR abundance estimates were accurate and precise, and analyses of subsets of the data indicated that the majority of individuals in a community could be detected with as few as five traps deployed within their territory. Our results highlight the potential of camera trapping for cost-effective monitoring of chimpanzee populations.

  4. A Spatially Explicit Approach for Evaluating Relationships among Coastal Cutthroat, Habitat, and Disturbance in Headwater Streams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gresswell, R. E.; Bateman, D. S.; Torgersen, C. E.; Guy, T. J.; Hendricks, S. R.; Wofford, J. E.

    2005-05-01

    Headwater stream systems are complex networks that form a physicochemical template governing the persistence of aquatic species such as coastal cutthroat trout. Individual portions of the network can function as conduits or receptacles for sediments, wood, and nutrients from terrestrial areas. Temporal and spatial changes in the delivery of these constituents can substantially alter the habitat template and its ability to support this native fish. Our study of 40 mid-sized watersheds (500 - 1,500 ha) in western Oregon is providing new insights into the factors affecting the distribution of coastal cutthroat trout within, and among, headwater stream networks. For example, data suggest that coastal cutthroat trout move throughout the accessible portions of headwater streams for reproductive, feeding, and refuge purposes. Fish congregate in these areas and form local populations that may exhibit unique phenotypic and genetic attributes. At times, coastal cutthroat trout move into larger downstream portions of the network where they may contribute to the persistence and genetic character of anadromous or local potamodromous assemblages. Variation in distribution patterns among watersheds reflects diverse environments and selective factors, such as geology, geomorphology, climate, and land-management history. Our research findings suggest that human activities that impede movement among suitable habitat patches can have lasting consequences for local assemblages of coastal cutthroat trout and may ultimately affect persistence.

  5. An open and extensible framework for spatially explicit land use change modelling: the lulcc R package

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moulds, S.; Buytaert, W.; Mijic, A.

    2015-10-01

    We present the lulcc software package, an object-oriented framework for land use change modelling written in the R programming language. The contribution of the work is to resolve the following limitations associated with the current land use change modelling paradigm: (1) the source code for model implementations is frequently unavailable, severely compromising the reproducibility of scientific results and making it impossible for members of the community to improve or adapt models for their own purposes; (2) ensemble experiments to capture model structural uncertainty are difficult because of fundamental differences between implementations of alternative models; and (3) additional software is required because existing applications frequently perform only the spatial allocation of change. The package includes a stochastic ordered allocation procedure as well as an implementation of the CLUE-S algorithm. We demonstrate its functionality by simulating land use change at the Plum Island Ecosystems site, using a data set included with the package. It is envisaged that lulcc will enable future model development and comparison within an open environment.

  6. Impacts of impervious surface expansion on soil organic carbon – a spatially explicit study

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Yan; Kuang, Wenhui; Zhang, Chi; Chen, Chunbo

    2015-01-01

    The rapid expansion of impervious surface areas (ISA) threatens soil organic carbon (SOC) pools in urbanized areas globally. The paucity of field observations on SOC under ISA (SOCISA), especially in dryland areas has limited our ability to assess the ecological impacts of ISA expansion. Based on systematically measured SOCISA (0–80 cm depth) of a dryland city, and land-use and land-cover change data derived from remotely sensed data, we investigated the magnitude and vertical/horizontal patterns of SOCISA and mapped the impact of ISA expansion on SOC storage. The mean SOCISA in the city was 5.36 ± 0.51 kg C m−2, lower than that observed in humid cities but much higher than that assumed in many regional carbon assessments. SOCISA decreased linearly as the soil depth or the horizontal distance from the open area increased. SOCISA accounted for over half of the city’s SOC stock, which decreased by 16% (primarily in the converted croplands) because of ISA expansion from 1990 to 2010. The impacts of the ISA expansion varied spatially, depending on the land- use and converted land-cover type. PMID:26642831

  7. Ethiopian wheat yield and yield gap estimation: A spatially explicit small area integrated data approach.

    PubMed

    Mann, Michael L; Warner, James M

    2017-02-01

    Despite the routine collection of annual agricultural surveys and significant advances in GIS and remote sensing products, little econometric research has integrated these data sources in estimating developing nations' agricultural yields. In this paper, we explore the determinants of wheat output per hectare in Ethiopia during the 2011-2013 principal Meher crop seasons at the kebele administrative area. Using a panel data approach, combining national agricultural field surveys with relevant GIS and remote sensing products, the model explains nearly 40% of the total variation in wheat output per hectare across the country. Reflecting on the high interannual variability in output per hectare, we explore whether these changes can be explained by weather, shocks to, and management of rain-fed agricultural systems. The model identifies specific contributors to wheat yields that include farm management techniques (e.g. area planted, improved seed, fertilizer, and irrigation), weather (e.g. rainfall), water availability (e.g. vegetation and moisture deficit indexes) and policy intervention. Our findings suggest that woredas produce between 9.8 and 86.5% of their locally attainable wheat yields given their altitude, weather conditions, terrain, and plant health. In conclusion, we believe the combination of field surveys with spatial data can be used to identify management priorities for improving production at a variety of administrative levels.

  8. Modeling spatially- and temporally-explicit water stress indices for use in life cycle assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scherer, L.; Venkatesh, A.; Karuppiah, R.; Usadi, A.; Pfister, S.; Hellweg, S.

    2013-12-01

    Water scarcity is a regional issue in many areas across the world, and can affect human health and ecosystems locally. Water stress indices (WSIs) have been developed as quantitative indicators of such scarcities - examples include the Falkenmark indicator, Social Water Stress Index, and the Water Supply Stress Index1. Application of these indices helps us understand water supply and demand risks for multiple users, including those in the agricultural, industrial, residential and commercial sectors. Pfister et al.2 developed a method to calculate WSIs that were used to estimate characterization factors (CFs) in order to quantify environmental impacts of freshwater consumption within a life cycle assessment (LCA) framework. Global WSIs were based on data from the WaterGAP model3, and presented as annual averages for watersheds. Since water supply and demand varies regionally and temporally, the resolution used in Pfister et al. does not effectively differentiate between seasonal and permanent water scarcity. This study aims to improve the temporal and spatial resolution of the water scarcity calculations used to estimate WSIs and CFs. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)4 hydrological model to properly simulate water supply in different world regions with high spatial and temporal resolution, and coupled it with water use data from WaterGAP3 and Pfister et al.5. Input data to SWAT included weather, land use, soil characteristics and a digital elevation model (DEM), all from publicly available global data sets. Potential evapotranspiration, which affects water supply, was determined using an improved Priestley-Taylor approach. In contrast to most other hydrological studies, large reservoirs, water consumption and major water transfers were simulated. The model was calibrated against observed monthly discharge, actual evapotranspiration, and snow water equivalents wherever appropriate. Based on these simulations, monthly WSIs were calculated for a few

  9. Crucial nesting habitat for gunnison sage-grouse: A spatially explicit hierarchical approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Aldridge, C.L.; Saher, D.J.; Childers, T.M.; Stahlnecker, K.E.; Bowen, Z.H.

    2012-01-01

    Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of special concern and is currently considered a candidate species under Endangered Species Act. Careful management is therefore required to ensure that suitable habitat is maintained, particularly because much of the species' current distribution is faced with exurban development pressures. We assessed hierarchical nest site selection patterns of Gunnison sage-grouse inhabiting the western portion of the Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA, at multiple spatial scales, using logistic regression-based resource selection functions. Models were selected using Akaike Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AIC c) and predictive surfaces were generated using model averaged relative probabilities. Landscape-scale factors that had the most influence on nest site selection included the proportion of sagebrush cover >5%, mean productivity, and density of 2 wheel-drive roads. The landscape-scale predictive surface captured 97% of known Gunnison sage-grouse nests within the top 5 of 10 prediction bins, implicating 57% of the basin as crucial nesting habitat. Crucial habitat identified by the landscape model was used to define the extent for patch-scale modeling efforts. Patch-scale variables that had the greatest influence on nest site selection were the proportion of big sagebrush cover >10%, distance to residential development, distance to high volume paved roads, and mean productivity. This model accurately predicted independent nest locations. The unique hierarchical structure of our models more accurately captures the nested nature of habitat selection, and allowed for increased discrimination within larger landscapes of suitable habitat. We extrapolated the landscape-scale model to the entire Gunnison Basin because of conservation concerns for this species. We believe this predictive surface is a valuable tool which can be incorporated into land use and conservation planning as well the assessment of

  10. Spatially explicit feedbacks between seagrass meadow structure, sediment and light: Habitat suitability for seagrass growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carr, Joel A.; D'Odorico, Paolo; McGlathery, Karen J.; Wiberg, Patricia L.

    2016-07-01

    In shallow coastal bays where nutrient loading and riverine inputs are low, turbidity, and the consequent light environment are controlled by resuspension of bed sediments due to wind-waves and tidal currents. High sediment resuspension and low light environments can limit benthic primary productivity; however, both currents and waves are affected by the presence of benthic plants such as seagrass. This feedback between the presence of benthic primary producers such as seagrass and the consequent light environment has been predicted to induce bistable dynamics locally. However, these vegetated areas influence a larger area than they footprint, including a barren adjacent downstream area which exhibits reduced shear stresses. Here we explore through modeling how the patchy structure of seagrass meadows on a landscape may affect sediment resuspension and the consequent light environment due to the presence of this sheltered region. Heterogeneous vegetation covers comprising a mosaic of randomly distributed patches were generated to investigate the effect of patch modified hydrodynamics. Actual cover of vegetation on the landscape was used to facilitate comparisons across landscape realizations. Hourly wave and current shear stresses on the landscape along with suspended sediment concentration and light attenuation characteristics were then calculated and spatially averaged to examine how actual cover and mean water depth affect the bulk sediment and light environment. The results indicate that an effective cover, which incorporates the sheltering area, has important controls on the distributions of shear stress, suspended sediment, light environment, and consequent seagrass habitat suitability. Interestingly, an optimal habitat occurs within a depth range where, if actual cover is reduced past some threshold, the bulk light environment would no longer favor seagrass growth.

  11. Spatially explicit feedbacks between seagrass meadow structure, sediment and light: Habitat suitability for seagrass growth

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carr, Joel; D'Odorico, Paul; McGlathery, Karen; Wiberg, Patricia L.

    2016-01-01

    In shallow coastal bays where nutrient loading and riverine inputs are low, turbidity, and the consequent light environment are controlled by resuspension of bed sediments due to wind-waves and tidal currents. High sediment resuspension and low light environments can limit benthic primary productivity; however, both currents and waves are affected by the presence of benthic plants such as seagrass. This feedback between the presence of benthic primary producers such as seagrass and the consequent light environment has been predicted to induce bistable dynamics locally. However, these vegetated areas influence a larger area than they footprint, including a barren adjacent downstream area which exhibits reduced shear stresses. Here we explore through modeling how the patchy structure of seagrass meadows on a landscape may affect sediment resuspension and the consequent light environment due to the presence of this sheltered region. Heterogeneous vegetation covers comprising a mosaic of randomly distributed patches were generated to investigate the effect of patch modified hydrodynamics. Actual cover of vegetation on the landscape was used to facilitate comparisons across landscape realizations. Hourly wave and current shear stresses on the landscape along with suspended sediment concentration and light attenuation characteristics were then calculated and spatially averaged to examine how actual cover and mean water depth affect the bulk sediment and light environment. The results indicate that an effective cover, which incorporates the sheltering area, has important controls on the distributions of shear stress, suspended sediment, light environment, and consequent seagrass habitat suitability. Interestingly, an optimal habitat occurs within a depth range where, if actual cover is reduced past some threshold, the bulk light environment would no longer favor seagrass growth.

  12. A Spatially-Explicit Modeling Approach to Examine the Interaction of Reproductive Traits and Landscape Characteristics on Arctic Shrub Expansion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naito, A. T.; Cairns, D. M.; Feldman, R. M.; Grant, W. E.

    2014-12-01

    Shrub expansion is one of the most recognized components of terrestrial Arctic change. While experimental work has provided valuable insights into its fine-scale drivers and implications, the contribution of shrub reproductive characteristics to their spatial patterns is poorly understood at broader scales. Building upon our previous work in river valleys in northern Alaska, we developed a C#-based spatially-explicit model that simulates historic landscape-scale shrub establishment between the 1970s and the late 2000s on a yearly time-step while accounting for parameters relating to different reproduction modes (clonal development with and without the "mass effect" and short-distance dispersal), as well as the presence and absence of the interaction of hydrologic constraints using the topographic wetness index. We examined these treatments on floodplains, valley slopes, and interfluves in the Ayiyak, Colville, and Kurupa River valleys. After simulating 30 landscape realizations using each parameter combination, we quantified the spatial characteristics (patch density, edge density, patch size variability, area-weighted shape index, area-weighted fractal dimension index, and mean distance between patches) of the resulting shrub patches on the simulation end date using FRAGSTATS. We used Principal Components Analysis to determine which treatments produced spatial characteristics most similar to those observed in the late 2000s. Based upon our results, we hypothesize that historic shrub expansion in northern Alaska has been driven in part by clonal reproduction with the "mass effect" or short-distance dispersal (< 5 m). The interactive effect of hydrologic characteristics, however, is less clear. These hypotheses may then be tested in future work involving field observations. Given the potential that climate change may facilitate a shift from a clonal to a sexual reproductive strategy, this model may facilitate predictions regarding future Arctic vegetation patterns.

  13. Spatially explicit land-use and land-cover scenarios for the Great Plains of the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Bennett, Stacie L.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Kanengieter, Ronald L.; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2012-01-01

    The Great Plains of the United States has undergone extensive land-use and land-cover change in the past 150 years, with much of the once vast native grasslands and wetlands converted to agricultural crops, and much of the unbroken prairie now heavily grazed. Future land-use change in the region could have dramatic impacts on ecological resources and processes. A scenario-based modeling framework is needed to support the analysis of potential land-use change in an uncertain future, and to mitigate potentially negative future impacts on ecosystem processes. We developed a scenario-based modeling framework to analyze potential future land-use change in the Great Plains. A unique scenario construction process, using an integrated modeling framework, historical data, workshops, and expert knowledge, was used to develop quantitative demand for future land-use change for four IPCC scenarios at the ecoregion level. The FORE-SCE model ingested the scenario information and produced spatially explicit land-use maps for the region at relatively fine spatial and thematic resolutions. Spatial modeling of the four scenarios provided spatial patterns of land-use change consistent with underlying assumptions and processes associated with each scenario. Economically oriented scenarios were characterized by significant loss of natural land covers and expansion of agricultural and urban land uses. Environmentally oriented scenarios experienced modest declines in natural land covers to slight increases. Model results were assessed for quantity and allocation disagreement between each scenario pair. In conjunction with the U.S. Geological Survey's Biological Carbon Sequestration project, the scenario-based modeling framework used for the Great Plains is now being applied to the entire United States.

  14. Effects of Lead Exposure, Environmental Conditions, and Metapopulation Processes on Population Dynamics of Spectacled Eiders.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, Paul L.; Grand, James B.; Petersen, Margaret; Rockwell, Robert F.

    2016-01-01

    subpopulation is independent and that future management actions may be improved through a metapopulation framework. For example, management actions could include displacement of breeding females from"sink" areas that reduce the growth potential of the population as a whole. However, this action is contingent upon dispersal among local populations, for which there is limited information. Thus, we recommend that researchers examine dispersal behavior among areas on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in western Alaska. The metapopulation framework could also be applied at the rangewide scale to address the density-dependent limitation of available polynya habitat during winter that may limit the recovery of small subpopulations, such as that on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Reductions in other subpopulations may be necessary to ensure an increase in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta population. Thus, we recommend that managers consider the interpopulation dynamics of spectacled eiders at different spatial scales in future management actions.

  15. Uncertainty analysis of a spatially explicit annual water-balance model: case study of the Cape Fear basin, North Carolina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamel, P.; Guswa, A. J.

    2015-02-01

    There is an increasing demand for assessment of water provisioning ecosystem services. While simple models with low data and expertise requirements are attractive, their use as decision-aid tools should be supported by uncertainty characterization. We assessed the performance of the InVEST annual water yield model, a popular tool for ecosystem service assessment based on the Budyko hydrological framework. Our study involved the comparison of 10 subcatchments ranging in size and land-use configuration, in the Cape Fear basin, North Carolina. We analyzed the model sensitivity to climate variables and input parameters, and the structural error associated with the use of the Budyko framework, a lumped (catchment-scale) model theory, in a spatially explicit way. Comparison of model predictions with observations and with the lumped model predictions confirmed that the InVEST model is able to represent differences in land uses and therefore in the spatial distribution of water provisioning services. Our results emphasize the effect of climate input errors, especially annual precipitation, and errors in the ecohydrological parameter Z, which are both comparable to the model structure uncertainties. Our case study supports the use of the model for predicting land-use change effect on water provisioning, although its use for identifying areas of high water yield will be influenced by precipitation errors. While some results are context-specific, our study provides general insights and methods to help identify the regions and decision contexts where the model predictions may be used with confidence.

  16. Spatially explicit measures of production of young alewives in Lake Michigan: Linkage between essential fish habitat and recruitment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hook, Tomas O.; Rutherford, Edward S.; Brines, Shannon J.; Mason, Doran M.; Schwab, David J.; McCormick, Michael; Desorcie, Timothy J.

    2003-01-01

    The identification and protection of essential habitats for early life stages of fishes are necessary to sustain fish stocks. Essential fish habitat for early life stages may be defined as areas where fish densities, growth, survival, or production rates are relatively high. To identify critical habitats for young-of-year (YOY) alewives (Alosa pseud oharengus) in Lake Michigan, we integrated bioenergetics models with GIS (Geographic Information Systems) to generate spatially explicit estimates of potential population production (an index of habitat quality). These estimates were based upon YOY alewife bioenergetic growth rate potential and their salmonine predators’ consumptive demand. We compared estimates of potential population production to YOY alewife yield (an index of habitat importance). Our analysis suggested that during 1994–1995, YOY alewife habitat quality and yield varied widely throughout Lake Michigan. Spatial patterns of alewife yield were not significantly correlated to habitat quality. Various mechanisms (e.g., predator migrations, lake circulation patterns, alternative strategies) may preclude YOY alewives from concentrating in areas of high habitat quality in Lake Michigan.

  17. A spatially and temporally explicit life cycle inventory of air pollutants from gasoline and ethanol in the United States.

    PubMed

    Tessum, Christopher W; Marshall, Julian D; Hill, Jason D

    2012-10-16

    The environmental health impacts of transportation depend in part on where and when emissions occur during fuel production and combustion. Here we describe spatially and temporally explicit life cycle inventories (LCI) of air pollutants from gasoline, ethanol derived from corn grain, and ethanol from corn stover. Previous modeling for the U.S. by Argonne National Laboratory (GREET: Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) suggested that life cycle emissions are generally higher for ethanol from corn grain or corn stover than for gasoline. Our results show that for ethanol, emissions are concentrated in the Midwestern "Corn Belt". We find that life cycle emissions from ethanol exhibit different temporal patterns than from gasoline, reflecting seasonal aspects of farming activities. Enhanced chemical speciation beyond current GREET model capabilities is also described. Life cycle fine particulate matter emissions are higher for ethanol from corn grain than for ethanol from corn stover; for black carbon, the reverse holds. Overall, our results add to existing state-of-the-science transportation fuel LCI by providing spatial and temporal disaggregation and enhanced chemical speciation, thereby offering greater understanding of the impacts of transportation fuels on human health and opening the door to advanced air dispersion modeling of fuel life cycles.

  18. Global spatially explicit CO2 emission metrics at 0.25° horizontal resolution for forest bioenergy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cherubini, F.

    2015-12-01

    Bioenergy is the most important renewable energy option in studies designed to align with future RCP projections, reaching approximately 250 EJ/yr in RCP2.6, 145 EJ/yr in RCP4.5 and 180 EJ/yr in RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. However, many questions enveloping the direct carbon cycle and climate response to bioenergy remain partially unexplored. Bioenergy systems are largely assessed under the default climate neutrality assumption and the time lag between CO2 emissions from biomass combustion and CO2 uptake by vegetation is usually ignored. Emission metrics of CO2 from forest bioenergy are only available on a case-specific basis and their quantification requires processing of a wide spectrum of modelled or observed local climate and forest conditions. On the other hand, emission metrics are widely used to aggregate climate impacts of greenhouse gases to common units such as CO2-equivalents (CO2-eq.), but a spatially explicit analysis of emission metrics with global forest coverage is today lacking. Examples of emission metrics include the global warming potential (GWP), the global temperature change potential (GTP) and the absolute sustained emission temperature (aSET). Here, we couple a global forest model, a heterotrophic respiration model, and a global climate model to produce global spatially explicit emission metrics for CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy. We show their applications to global emissions in 2015 and until 2100 under the different RCP scenarios. We obtain global average values of 0.49 ± 0.03 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1 (mean ± standard deviation), 0.05 ± 0.05 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1 for GWP, GTP and aSET, respectively. We also present results aggregated at a grid, national and continental level. The metrics are found to correlate with the site-specific turnover times and local climate variables like annual mean temperature and precipitation. Simplified

  19. Spatially explicit modelling of forest structure and function using airborne lidar and hyperspectral remote sensing data combined with micrometeorological measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Valerie Anne

    This research models canopy-scale photosynthesis at the Groundhog River Flux Site through the integration of high-resolution airborne remote sensing data and micrometeorological measurements collected from a flux tower. Light detection and ranging (lidar) data are analysed to derive models of tree structure, including: canopy height, basal area, crown closure, and average aboveground biomass. Lidar and hyperspectral remote sensing data are used to model canopy chlorophyll (Chl) and carotenoid concentrations (known to be good indicators of photosynthesis). The integration of lidar and hyperspectral data is applied to derive spatially explicit models of the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) absorbed by the canopy as well as a species classification for the site. These products are integrated with flux tower meteorological measurements (i.e., air temperature and global solar radiation) collected on a continuous basis over 2004 to apply the C-Fix model of carbon exchange to the site. Results demonstrate that high resolution lidar and lidar-hyperspectral integration techniques perform well in the boreal mixedwood environment. Lidar models are well correlated with forest structure, despite the complexities introduced in the mixedwood case (e.g., r2=0.84, 0.89, 0.60, and 0.91, for mean dominant height, basal area, crown closure, and average aboveground biomass). Strong relationships are also shown for canopy scale chlorophyll/carotenoid concentration analysis using integrated lidar-hyperspectral techniques (e.g., r2=0.84, 0.84, and 0.82 for Chl(a), Chl(a+b), and Chl(b)). Examination of the spatially explicit models of fPAR reveal distinct spatial patterns which become increasingly apparent throughout the season due to the variation in species groupings (and canopy chlorophyll concentration) within the 1 km radius surrounding the flux tower. Comparison of results from the modified local-scale version of the C-Fix model to tower gross ecosystem

  20. Effects of habitat destruction in a prey-predator metapopulation model

    PubMed

    Bascompte; Sole

    1998-12-07

    A mean field, metapopulation model of a predator-prey interaction is developed in order to understand the consequences of habitate destruction at different trophic levels. Such a model allows is to explore different ecological scenarios (donor control vs. top-down control) by changing a single parameter. The response to habitat destruction is qualitatively the same for both predator and prey, although there are interesting differences linked to the trophic position. A similar decrease in the colonization rates affects the two species quite differently. Predators diminish faster than prey, and furthermore, the fraction of occupied sites decreases more sharply as colonization rates are lowered, i.e. there is a nonlinear relationship between regional abundance and colonization rate. There is a well-defined threshold in the colonization rate below which the predator becomes extinct. Thus, dispersal rate is critical for predicting the consequences of habitat destruction. Finally, these results are compared with the behavior of a spatially explicit simulation. The only difference between the analytical model and the simulation is that colonization is no longer a global phenomenon in the latter, but it is a local process, constrained to the nearest patches. The bulk of the results are similar to the mean field behavior, and we comment on some differences related with non-homogeneity and real space. Some general implications for conservation biology and biological control are outlined. Copyright 1998 Academic Press

  1. Impact of mosquito gene drive on malaria elimination in a computational model with explicit spatial and temporal dynamics.

    PubMed

    Eckhoff, Philip A; Wenger, Edward A; Godfray, H Charles J; Burt, Austin

    2017-01-10

    The renewed effort to eliminate malaria and permanently remove its tremendous burden highlights questions of what combination of tools would be sufficient in various settings and what new tools need to be developed. Gene drive mosquitoes constitute a promising set of tools, with multiple different possible approaches including population replacement with introduced genes limiting malaria transmission, driving-Y chromosomes to collapse a mosquito population, and gene drive disrupting a fertility gene and thereby achieving population suppression or collapse. Each of these approaches has had recent success and advances under laboratory conditions, raising the urgency for understanding how each could be deployed in the real world and the potential impacts of each. New analyses are needed as existing models of gene drive primarily focus on nonseasonal or nonspatial dynamics. We use a mechanistic, spatially explicit, stochastic, individual-based mathematical model to simulate each gene drive approach in a variety of sub-Saharan African settings. Each approach exhibits a broad region of gene construct parameter space with successful elimination of malaria transmission due to the targeted vector species. The introduction of realistic seasonality in vector population dynamics facilitates gene drive success compared with nonseasonal analyses. Spatial simulations illustrate constraints on release timing, frequency, and spatial density in the most challenging settings for construct success. Within its parameter space for success, each gene drive approach provides a tool for malaria elimination unlike anything presently available. Provided potential barriers to success are surmounted, each achieves high efficacy at reducing transmission potential and lower delivery requirements in logistically challenged settings.

  2. Impact of mosquito gene drive on malaria elimination in a computational model with explicit spatial and temporal dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Eckhoff, Philip A.; Wenger, Edward A.; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Burt, Austin

    2017-01-01

    The renewed effort to eliminate malaria and permanently remove its tremendous burden highlights questions of what combination of tools would be sufficient in various settings and what new tools need to be developed. Gene drive mosquitoes constitute a promising set of tools, with multiple different possible approaches including population replacement with introduced genes limiting malaria transmission, driving-Y chromosomes to collapse a mosquito population, and gene drive disrupting a fertility gene and thereby achieving population suppression or collapse. Each of these approaches has had recent success and advances under laboratory conditions, raising the urgency for understanding how each could be deployed in the real world and the potential impacts of each. New analyses are needed as existing models of gene drive primarily focus on nonseasonal or nonspatial dynamics. We use a mechanistic, spatially explicit, stochastic, individual-based mathematical model to simulate each gene drive approach in a variety of sub-Saharan African settings. Each approach exhibits a broad region of gene construct parameter space with successful elimination of malaria transmission due to the targeted vector species. The introduction of realistic seasonality in vector population dynamics facilitates gene drive success compared with nonseasonal analyses. Spatial simulations illustrate constraints on release timing, frequency, and spatial density in the most challenging settings for construct success. Within its parameter space for success, each gene drive approach provides a tool for malaria elimination unlike anything presently available. Provided potential barriers to success are surmounted, each achieves high efficacy at reducing transmission potential and lower delivery requirements in logistically challenged settings. PMID:28028208

  3. A High-Resolution Spatially Explicit Monte-Carlo Simulation Approach to Commercial and Residential Electricity and Water Demand Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Morton, April M; McManamay, Ryan A; Nagle, Nicholas N; Piburn, Jesse O; Stewart, Robert N; Surendran Nair, Sujithkumar

    2016-01-01

    Abstract As urban areas continue to grow and evolve in a world of increasing environmental awareness, the need for high resolution spatially explicit estimates for energy and water demand has become increasingly important. Though current modeling efforts mark significant progress in the effort to better understand the spatial distribution of energy and water consumption, many are provided at a course spatial resolution or rely on techniques which depend on detailed region-specific data sources that are not publicly available for many parts of the U.S. Furthermore, many existing methods do not account for errors in input data sources and may therefore not accurately reflect inherent uncertainties in model outputs. We propose an alternative and more flexible Monte-Carlo simulation approach to high-resolution residential and commercial electricity and water consumption modeling that relies primarily on publicly available data sources. The method s flexible data requirement and statistical framework ensure that the model is both applicable to a wide range of regions and reflective of uncertainties in model results. Key words: Energy Modeling, Water Modeling, Monte-Carlo Simulation, Uncertainty Quantification Acknowledgment This manuscript has been authored by employees of UT-Battelle, LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the U.S. Department of Energy. Accordingly, the United States Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for United States Government purposes.

  4. Spatially Explicit Models to Investigate Geographic Patterns in the Distribution of Forensic STRs: Application to the North-Eastern Mediterranean

    PubMed Central

    Messina, Francesco; Finocchio, Andrea; Akar, Nejat; Loutradis, Aphrodite; Michalodimitrakis, Emmanuel I.; Brdicka, Radim; Jodice, Carla

    2016-01-01

    Human forensic STRs used for individual identification have been reported to have little power for inter-population analyses. Several methods have been developed which incorporate information on the spatial distribution of individuals to arrive at a description of the arrangement of diversity. We genotyped at 16 forensic STRs a large population sample obtained from many locations in Italy, Greece and Turkey, i.e. three countries crucial to the understanding of discontinuities at the European/Asian junction and the genetic legacy of ancient migrations, but seldom represented together in previous studies. Using spatial PCA on the full dataset, we detected patterns of population affinities in the area. Additionally, we devised objective criteria to reduce the overall complexity into reduced datasets. Independent spatially explicit methods applied to these latter datasets converged in showing that the extraction of information on long- to medium-range geographical trends and structuring from the overall diversity is possible. All analyses returned the picture of a background clinal variation, with regional discontinuities captured by each of the reduced datasets. Several aspects of our results are confirmed on external STR datasets and replicate those of genome-wide SNP typings. High levels of gene flow were inferred within the main continental areas by coalescent simulations. These results are promising from a microevolutionary perspective, in view of the fast pace at which forensic data are being accumulated for many locales. It is foreseeable that this will allow the exploitation of an invaluable genotypic resource, assembled for other (forensic) purposes, to clarify important aspects in the formation of local gene pools. PMID:27898725

  5. Inferring contemporary dispersal processes in plant metapopulations: comparison of direct and indirect estimates of dispersal for the annual species Crepis sancta

    PubMed Central

    Dornier, A; Cheptou, P-O

    2013-01-01

    Analyzing population dynamics in changing habitats is a prerequisite for population dynamics forecasting. The recent development of metapopulation modeling allows the estimation of dispersal kernels based on the colonization pattern but the accuracy of these estimates compared with direct estimates of the seed dispersal kernel has rarely been assessed. In this study, we used recent genetic methods based on parentage analysis (spatially explicit mating models) to estimate seed and pollen dispersal kernels as well as seed and pollen immigration in fragmented urban populations of the plant species Crepis sancta with contrasting patch dynamics. Using two independent networks, we documented substantial seed immigration and a highly restricted dispersal kernel. Moreover, immigration heterogeneity among networks was consistent with previously reported metapopulation dynamics, showing that colonization was mainly due to external colonization in the first network (propagule rain) and local colonization in the second network. We concluded that the differences in urban patch dynamics are mainly due to seed immigration heterogeneity, highlighting the importance of external population source in the spatio-temporal dynamics of plants in a fragmented landscape. The results show that indirect and direct methods were qualitatively consistent, providing a proper interpretation of indirect estimates. This study provides attempts to link genetic and demographic methods and show that patch occupancy models may provide simple methods for analyzing population dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes in the context of global change. PMID:23443058

  6. Spatially-explicit life cycle assessment of sun-to-wheels transportation pathways in the U.S.

    PubMed

    Geyer, Roland; Stoms, David; Kallaos, James

    2013-01-15

    Growth in biofuel production, which is meant to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fossil energy demand, is increasingly seen as a threat to food supply and natural habitats. Using photovoltaics (PV) to directly convert solar radiation into electricity for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is an alternative to photosynthesis, which suffers from a very low energy conversion efficiency. Assessments need to be spatially explicit, since solar insolation and crop yields vary widely between locations. This paper therefore compares direct land use, life cycle GHG emissions and fossil fuel requirements of five different sun-to-wheels conversion pathways for every county in the contiguous U.S.: Ethanol from corn or switchgrass for internal combustion vehicles (ICVs), electricity from corn or switchgrass for BEVs, and PV electricity for BEVs. Even the most land-use efficient biomass-based pathway (i.e., switchgrass bioelectricity in U.S. counties with hypothetical crop yields of over 24 tonnes/ha) requires 29 times more land than the PV-based alternative in the same locations. PV BEV systems also have the lowest life cycle GHG emissions throughout the U.S. and the lowest fossil fuel inputs, except for locations with hypothetical switchgrass yields of 16 or more tonnes/ha. Including indirect land use effects further strengthens the case for PV.

  7. Spatially explicit fire-climate history of the boreal forest-tundra (Eastern Canada) over the last 2000 years.

    PubMed

    Payette, Serge; Filion, Louise; Delwaide, Ann

    2008-07-12

    Across the boreal forest, fire is the main disturbance factor and driver of ecosystem changes. In this study, we reconstructed a long-term, spatially explicit fire history of a forest-tundra region in northeastern Canada. We hypothesized that current occupation of similar topographic and edaphic sites by tundra and forest was the consequence of cumulative regression with time of forest cover due to compounding fire and climate disturbances. All fires were mapped and dated per 100 year intervals over the last 2,000 years using several fire dating techniques. Past fire occurrences and post-fire regeneration at the northern forest limit indicate 70% reduction of forest cover since 1800 yr BP and nearly complete cessation of forest regeneration since 900 yr BP. Regression of forest cover was particularly important between 1500s-1700s and possibly since 900 yr BP. Although fire frequency was very low over the last 100 years, each fire event was followed by drastic removal of spruce cover. Contrary to widespread belief of northward boreal forest expansion due to recent warming, lack of post-fire recovery during the last centuries, in comparison with active tree regeneration more than 1,000 years ago, indicates that the current climate does not favour such expansion.

  8. Individual-Based Spatially-Explicit Model of an Herbivore and Its Resource: The Effect of Habitat Reduction and Fragmentation

    SciTech Connect

    Kostova, T; Carlsen, T; Kercher, J

    2002-06-17

    We present an individual-based, spatially-explicit model of the dynamics of a small mammal and its resource. The life histories of each individual animal are modeled separately. The individuals can have the status of residents or wanderers and belong to behaviorally differing groups of juveniles or adults and males or females. Their territory defending and monogamous behavior is taken into consideration. The resource, green vegetation, grows depending on seasonal climatic characteristics and is diminished due to the herbivore's grazing. Other specifics such as a varying personal energetic level due to feeding and starvation of the individuals, mating preferences, avoidance of competitors, dispersal of juveniles, as a result of site overgrazing, etc. are included in the model. We determined model parameters from real data for the species Microtus ochrogaster (prairie vole). The simulations are done for a case of an enclosed habitat without predators or other species competitors. The goal of the study is to find the relation between size of habitat and population persistence. The experiments with the model show the populations go extinct due to severe overgrazing, but that the length of population persistence depends on the area of the habitat as well as on the presence of fragmentation. Additionally, the total population size of the vole population obtained during the simulations exhibits yearly fluctuations as well as multi-yearly peaks of fluctuations. This dynamics is similar to the one observed in prairie vole field studies.

  9. Spatially explicit estimates of N2 O emissions from croplands suggest climate mitigation opportunities from improved fertilizer management.

    PubMed

    Gerber, James S; Carlson, Kimberly M; Makowski, David; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, Iñaki; Havlík, Petr; Herrero, Mario; Launay, Marie; O'Connell, Christine S; Smith, Pete; West, Paul C

    2016-10-01

    With increasing nitrogen (N) application to croplands required to support growing food demand, mitigating N2 O emissions from agricultural soils is a global challenge. National greenhouse gas emissions accounting typically estimates N2 O emissions at the country scale by aggregating all crops, under the assumption that N2 O emissions are linearly related to N application. However, field studies and meta-analyses indicate a nonlinear relationship, in which N2 O emissions are relatively greater at higher N application rates. Here, we apply a super-linear emissions response model to crop-specific, spatially explicit synthetic N fertilizer and manure N inputs to provide subnational accounting of global N2 O emissions from croplands. We estimate 0.66 Tg of N2 O-N direct global emissions circa 2000, with 50% of emissions concentrated in 13% of harvested area. Compared to estimates from the IPCC Tier 1 linear model, our updated N2 O emissions range from 20% to 40% lower throughout sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe, to >120% greater in some Western European countries. At low N application rates, the weak nonlinear response of N2 O emissions suggests that relatively large increases in N fertilizer application would generate relatively small increases in N2 O emissions. As aggregated fertilizer data generate underestimation bias in nonlinear models, high-resolution N application data are critical to support accurate N2 O emissions estimates.

  10. Comparing approaches to spatially explicit ecosystem service modeling: a case study from the San Pedro River, Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Semmens, Darius J.; Winthrop, Robert

    2013-01-01

    Although the number of ecosystem service modeling tools has grown in recent years, quantitative comparative studies of these tools have been lacking. In this study, we applied two leading open-source, spatially explicit ecosystem services modeling tools – Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) – to the San Pedro River watershed in southeast Arizona, USA, and northern Sonora, Mexico. We modeled locally important services that both modeling systems could address – carbon, water, and scenic viewsheds. We then applied managerially relevant scenarios for urban growth and mesquite management to quantify ecosystem service changes. InVEST and ARIES use different modeling approaches and ecosystem services metrics; for carbon, metrics were more similar and results were more easily comparable than for viewsheds or water. However, findings demonstrate similar gains and losses of ecosystem services and conclusions when comparing effects across our scenarios. Results were more closely aligned for landscape-scale urban-growth scenarios and more divergent for a site-scale mesquite-management scenario. Follow-up studies, including testing in different geographic contexts, can improve our understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of these and other ecosystem services modeling tools as they move closer to readiness for supporting day-to-day resource management.

  11. Modeling the fate of nitrogen on the catchment scale using a spatially explicit hydro-biogeochemical simulation system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klatt, S.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Kiese, R.; Haas, E.; Kraus, D.; Molina-Herrera, S. W.; Kraft, P.

    2015-12-01

    The continuous growth of the human population demands an equally growing supply for fresh water and food. As a result, available land for efficient agriculture is constantly diminishing which forces farmers to cultivate inferior croplands and intensify agricultural practices, e.g., increase the use of synthetic fertilizers. This intensification of marginal areas in particular will cause a dangerous rise in nitrate discharge into open waters or even drinking water resources. In order to reduce the amount of nitrate lost by surface runoff or lateral subsurface transport, bufferstrips have proved to be a valuable means. Current laws, however, promote rather static designs (i.e., width and usage) even though a multitude of factors, e.g., soil type, slope, vegetation and the nearby agricultural management, determines its effectiveness. We propose a spatially explicit modeling approach enabling to assess the effects of those factors on nitrate discharge from arable lands using the fully distributed hydrology model CMF coupled to the complex biogeochemical model LandscapeDNDC. Such a modeling scheme allows to observe the displacement of dissolved nutrients in both vertical and horizontal directions and serves to estimate both their uptake by the vegetated bufferstrip and loss to the environment. First results indicate a significant reduction of nitrate loss in the presence of a bufferstrip (2.5 m). We show effects induced by various buffer strip widths and plant cover on the nitrate retention.

  12. A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis.

    PubMed

    Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

    2014-03-01

    GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty-sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights.

  13. A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis☆

    PubMed Central

    Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster–Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty–sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights. PMID:25843987

  14. Metapopulation capacity of evolving fluvial landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertuzzo, Enrico; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2015-04-01

    The form of fluvial landscapes is known to attain stationary network configurations that settle in dynamically accessible minima of total energy dissipation by landscape-forming discharges. Recent studies have highlighted the role of the dendritic structure of river networks in controlling population dynamics of the species they host and large-scale biodiversity patterns. Here, we systematically investigate the relation between energy dissipation, the physical driver for the evolution of river networks, and the ecological dynamics of their embedded biota. To that end, we use the concept of metapopulation capacity, a measure to link landscape structures with the population dynamics they host. Technically, metapopulation capacity is the leading eigenvalue λM of an appropriate "landscape" matrix subsuming whether a given species is predicted to persist in the long run. λM can conveniently be used to rank different landscapes in terms of their capacity to support viable metapopulations. We study how λM changes in response to the evolving network configurations of spanning trees. Such sequence of configurations is theoretically known to relate network selection to general landscape evolution equations through imperfect searches for dynamically accessible states frustrated by the vagaries of Nature. Results show that the process shaping the metric and the topological properties of river networks, prescribed by physical constraints, leads to a progressive increase in the corresponding metapopulation capacity and therefore on the landscape capacity to support metapopulations—with implications on biodiversity in fluvial ecosystems.

  15. Network Analysis Shows Asymmetrical Flows within a Bird Metapopulation

    PubMed Central

    Rojas, Emilio R.; Sueur, Cédric; Henry, Pierre-Yves; Doligez, Blandine; Wey, Gérard; Dehorter, Olivier; Massemin, Sylvie

    2016-01-01

    How the spatial expansion of a species changes at a human time scale is a process difficult to determine. We studied the dispersal pattern of the French white stork population, using a 21-year ringing/resighting dataset. We used the graph-theory to investigate the strength of links between 5 populations (North-East, North-West, Centre, West, and South) and to determine factors important for the birds’ movements. Two clusters of populations were identified within the metapopulation, with most frequent movements of individuals between North-Eastern and Centre populations, and between North-Western and Western populations. Exchanges of individuals between populations were asymmetrical, where North-Eastern and North-Western populations provided more emigrants than they received immigrants. Neither the geographical distance between populations, nor the difference in densities influenced the number of individuals exchanging between populations. The graph-theory approach provides a dynamic view of individual movements within a metapopulation and might be useful for future population studies in the context of conservation. PMID:27893770

  16. A spatially explicit multi-isotope approach to map influence regions of plant-plant interactions after exotic plant invasion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hellmann, Christine; Oldeland, Jens; Werner, Christiane

    2015-04-01

    Exotic plant invasions impose profound alterations to native ecosystems, including changes of water, carbon and nutrient cycles. However, explicitly quantifying these impacts remains a challenge. Stable isotopes, by providing natural tracers of biogeochemical processes, can help to identify and measure such alterations in space and time. Recently, δ15N isoscapes, i.e. spatially continuous representations of isotopic values, derived from native plant foliage, enabled to accurately trace nitrogen introduced by the N2-fixing invasive Acacia longifolia into a native Portuguese dune system. It could be shown that the area of the system which was altered by the invasive species exceeded the area which was covered by the invader by far. But still, definition of clear regions of influence is to some extent ambiguous. Here, we present an approach using multiple isoscapes derived from measured foliar δ13C and δ15N values of a native, non-fixing species, Corema album. By clustering isotopic information, we obtained an objective classification of the study area. Properties and spatial position of clusters could be interpreted to distinguish areas that were or were not influenced by A. longifolia. Spatial clusters at locations where A. longifolia was present had δ15N values that were enriched, i.e. close to the atmospheric signal of 0 o compared to the depleted values of the uninvaded system (ca. -11 o). Furthermore, C. album individuals in these clusters were characterized by higher foliar N content and enriched δ13C. These results indicate that the N2-fixing A. longifolia added nitrogen to the system which originated from the atmosphere and was used by the native C. album, inducing functional changes, i.e. an increase in WUE. Additionally, clusters were identified that were presumably determined by inherent properties of the native system. Thus, combining isotope ecology with geostatistical methods is a promising approach for mapping regions of influence in multi

  17. Anthropogenic habitat disturbance and the dynamics of hantavirus using remote sensing, GIS, and a spatially explicit agent-based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Lina

    Sin Nombre virus (SNV), a strain of hantavirus, causes hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in humans, a deadly disease with high mortality rate (>50%). The primary virus host is deer mice, and greater deer mice abundance has been shown to increase the human risk of HPS. There is a great need in understanding the nature of the virus host, its temporal and spatial dynamics, and its relation to the human population with the purpose of predicting human risk of the disease. This research studies SNV dynamics in deer mice in the Great Basin Desert of central Utah, USA using multiyear field data and integrated geospatial approaches including remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS), and a spatially explicit agent-based model. The goal is to advance our understanding of the important ecological and demographic factors that affect the dynamics of deer mouse population and SNV prevalence. The primary research question is how climate, habitat disturbance, and deer mouse demographics affect deer mouse population density, its movement, and SNV prevalence in the sagebrush habitat. The results show that the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) can be good predictors of deer mouse density and the number of infected deer mice with a time lag of 1.0 to 1.3 years. This information can be very useful in predicting mouse abundance and SNV risk. The results also showed that climate, mouse density, sex, mass, and SNV infection had significant effects on deer mouse movement. The effect of habitat disturbance on mouse movement varies according to climate conditions with positive relationship in predrought condition and negative association in postdrought condition. The heavier infected deer mice moved the most. Season and disturbance alone had no significant effects. The spatial agent-based model (SABM) simulation results show that prevalence was negatively related to the disturbance levels and the sensitivity analysis showed that

  18. Spatio-temporal variation in the strength and mode of selection acting on major histocompatibility complex diversity in water vole (Arvicola terrestris) metapopulations.

    PubMed

    Oliver, Matthew K; Lambin, Xavier; Cornulier, Thomas; Piertney, Stuart B

    2009-01-01

    Patterns of spatio-temporal genetic variation at a class II major histocompatibility complex (MHC) locus and multiple microsatellite loci were analysed within and between three water vole metapopulations in Scotland, UK. Comparisons of MHC and microsatellite spatial genetic differentiation, based on standardised tests between two demographically asynchronous zones within a metapopulation, suggested that spatial MHC variation was affected by balancing selection, directional selection and random genetic drift, but that the relative effects of these microevolutionary forces vary temporally. At the metapopulation level, between-year differentiation for MHC loci was significantly correlated with that of microsatellites, signifying that neutral factors such as migration and drift were primarily responsible for overall temporal genetic change at the metapopulation scale. Between metapopulations, patterns of genetic differentiation implied that, at large spatial scales, MHC variation was primarily affected by directional selection and drift. Levels of MHC heterozygosity in excess of Hardy-Weinberg expectations were consistent with overdominant balancing selection operating on MHC variation within metapopulations. However, this effect was not constant among all samples, indicating temporal variation in the strength of selection relative to other factors. The results highlight the benefit of contrasting variation at MHC with neutral markers to separate the effects of stochastic and deterministic microevolutionary forces, and add to a growing body of evidence showing that the mode and relative strength of selection acting on MHC diversity varies both spatially and temporally.

  19. Intermediate fragmentation per se provides stable predator-prey metapopulation dynamics.

    PubMed

    Cooper, Jennifer K; Li, Jiqiu; Montagnes, David J S

    2012-08-01

    The extent to which a landscape is fragmented affects persistence of predator-prey dynamics. Increasing fragmentation concomitantly imposes conditions that stabilise and destabilise metapopulations. For the first time, we explicitly assessed the hypothesis that intermediate levels provide optimal conditions for stability. We examine four structural changes arising from increased fragmentation: increased fragment number; decreased fragment size; increased connectedness (corridors scaled to fragment); increased fragment heterogeneity (based on connectedness). Using the model predator-prey system (Didinium-Paramecium) we support our hypothesis, by examining replicated metapopulations dynamics at five fragmentation levels. Although both species became extinct without fragmentation, prey survived at low and high levels, and both survived at intermediate levels. By examining time to extinction, maximum abundances, and population asynchrony we conclude that fragmentation produces structural heterogeneity (independent of environmental heterogeneity), which influences stability. Our analysis suggests why some theoretical, field and microcosm studies present conflicting views of fragmentation effects on population persistence.

  20. Understanding African Swine Fever infection dynamics in Sardinia using a spatially explicit transmission model in domestic pig farms.

    PubMed

    Mur, L; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M; Fernández-Carrión, E; Jurado, C; Rolesu, S; Feliziani, F; Laddomada, A; Martínez-López, B

    2017-03-13

    African swine fever virus (ASFV) has been endemic in Sardinia since 1978, resulting in severe losses for local pig producers and creating important problems for the island's veterinary authorities. This study used a spatially explicit stochastic transmission model followed by two regression models to investigate the dynamics of ASFV spread amongst domestic pig farms, to identify geographic areas at highest risk and determine the role of different susceptible pig populations (registered domestic pigs, non-registered domestic pigs [brado] and wild boar) in ASF occurrence. We simulated transmission within and between farms using an adapted version of the previously described model known as Be-FAST. Results from the model revealed a generally low diffusion of ASF in Sardinia, with only 24% of the simulations resulting in disease spread, and for each simulated outbreak on average only four farms and 66 pigs were affected. Overall, local spread (indirect transmission between farms within a 2 km radius through fomites) was the most common route of transmission, being responsible for 98.6% of secondary cases. The risk of ASF occurrence for each domestic pig farm was estimated from the spread model results and integrated in two regression models together with available data for brado and wild boar populations. There was a significant association between the density of all three populations (domestic pigs, brado, and wild boar) and ASF occurrence in Sardinia. The most significant risk factors were the high densities of brado (OR = 2.2) and wild boar (OR = 2.1). The results of both analyses demonstrated that ASF epidemiology and infection dynamics in Sardinia create a complex and multifactorial disease situation, where all susceptible populations play an important role. To stop ASF transmission in Sardinia, three main factors (improving biosecurity on domestic pig farms, eliminating brado practices and better management of wild boars) need to be addressed.

  1. Hiding in Plain Sight: A Case for Cryptic Metapopulations in Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis)

    PubMed Central

    Kazyak, David C.; Hilderbrand, Robert H.; King, Tim L.; Keller, Stephen R.; Chhatre, Vikram E.

    2016-01-01

    A fundamental issue in the management and conservation of biodiversity is how to define a population. Spatially contiguous fish occupying a stream network have often been considered to represent a single, homogenous population. However, they may also represent multiple discrete populations, a single population with genetic isolation-by-distance, or a metapopulation. We used microsatellite DNA and a large-scale mark-recapture study to assess population structure in a spatially contiguous sample of Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a species of conservation concern. We found evidence for limited genetic exchange across small spatial scales and in the absence of barriers to physical movement. Mark-recapture and stationary passive integrated transponder antenna records demonstrated that fish from two tributaries very seldom moved into the opposite tributary, but movements between the tributaries and mainstem were more common. Using Bayesian genetic clustering, we identified two genetic groups that exhibited significantly different growth rates over three years of study, yet survival rates were very similar. Our study highlights the importance of considering the possibility of multiple genetically distinct populations occurring within spatially contiguous habitats, and suggests the existence of a cryptic metapopulation: a spatially continuous distribution of organisms exhibiting metapopulation-like behaviors. PMID:26730588

  2. Unprecedented restoration of a native oyster metapopulation.

    PubMed

    Schulte, David M; Burke, Russell P; Lipcius, Romuald N

    2009-08-28

    Native oyster species were once vital ecosystem engineers, but their populations have collapsed worldwide because of overfishing and habitat destruction. In 2004, we initiated a vast (35-hectare) field experiment by constructing native oyster reefs of three types (high-relief, low-relief, and unrestored) in nine protected sanctuaries throughout the Great Wicomico River in Virginia, United States. Upon sampling in 2007 and 2009, we found a thriving metapopulation comprising 185 million oysters of various age classes. Oyster density was fourfold greater on high-relief than on low-relief reefs, explaining the failure of past attempts. Juvenile recruitment and reef accretion correlated with oyster density, facilitating reef development and population persistence. This reestablished metapopulation is the largest of any native oyster worldwide and validates ecological restoration of native oyster species.

  3. Connecting deterministic and stochastic metapopulation models.

    PubMed

    Barbour, A D; McVinish, R; Pollett, P K

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we study the relationship between certain stochastic and deterministic versions of Hanski's incidence function model and the spatially realistic Levins model. We show that the stochastic version can be well approximated in a certain sense by the deterministic version when the number of habitat patches is large, provided that the presence or absence of individuals in a given patch is influenced by a large number of other patches. Explicit bounds on the deviation between the stochastic and deterministic models are given.

  4. Local enrichment and its nonlocal consequences for victim exploiter metapopulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yaari, Gur; Solomon, Sorin; Schiffer, Marcelo; Shnerb, Nadav M.

    2008-10-01

    The stabilizing effects of local enrichment are revisited. Diffusively coupled host-parasitoid and predator-prey metapopulations are shown to admit a stable fixed point, limit cycle or stable torus with a rich bifurcation structure. A linear toy model that yields many of the basic qualitative features of this system is presented. The further nonlinear complications are analyzed in the framework of the marginally stable Lotka-Volterra model, and the continuous time analog of the unstable, host-parasitoid Nicholson-Bailey model. The dependence of the results on the migration rate and level of spatial variations is examined, and the possibility of “nonlocal” effect of enrichment, where local enrichment induces stable oscillations at a distance, is studied. A simple method for basic estimation of the relative importance of this effect in experimental systems is presented and exemplified.

  5. Evolution of specialization in resource utilization in structured metapopulations.

    PubMed

    Nurmi, Tuomas; Geritz, Stefan; Parvinen, Kalle; Gyllenberg, Mats

    2008-07-01

    We study the evolution of resource utilization in a structured discrete-time metapopulation model with an infinite number of patches, prone to local catastrophes. The consumer faces a trade-off in the abilities to consume two resources available in different amounts in each patch. We analyse how the evolution of specialization in the utilization of the resources is affected by different ecological factors: migration, local growth, local catastrophes, forms of the trade-off and distribution of the resources in the patches. Our modelling approach offers a natural way to include more than two patch types into the models. This has not been usually possible in the previous spatially heterogeneous models focusing on the evolution of specialization.

  6. Spatially explicit modeling of animal tuberculosis at the wildlife-livestock interface in Ciudad Real province, Spain.

    PubMed

    LaHue, Nathaniel P; Baños, Joaquín Vicente; Acevedo, Pelayo; Gortázar, Christian; Martínez-López, Beatriz

    2016-06-01

    Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa) and red deer (Cervus elaphus) are the most important wildlife reservoirs for animal tuberculosis (TB) caused by the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC), in Mediterranean Spain. These species are considered to play an important role in the transmission and persistence of MTC in cattle in some regions; however the factors contributing to the risk of transmission at the wildlife-livestock interface and the areas at highest risk for such transmission are largely unknown. This study sought to identify geographic areas where wildlife-livestock interactions are most likely to occur and to characterize the environmental and management factors at this interface contributing to persistence, incidence, and occurrence of TB on cattle farms, in one of the provinces with higher TB prevalence in Spain, Ciudad Real. We used spatially explicit, ecological niche models to evaluate the importance of factors such as wildlife demographics and hunting management, land use, climatic, and environmental variables as well as TB status in wildlife for TB breakdown (model 1), persistence (model 2) and new infection (model 3) on cattle farms and to generate high resolution maps of predicted TB occurrence to guide risk-based interventions. Models revealed that land use, particularly open area and woodland, high wild boar TB prevalence, and close proximity to fenced hunting estates were the most important factors associated with TB infection on cattle farms. This is the first time that local TB prevalence in wild boar for individual hunting estates has been significantly associated with TB occurrence on cattle farms at a local scale. Prediction maps identified two areas with high likelihood of TB occurrence in the southwest and northwest of the province where wildlife-livestock interactions and TB occurrence are highly likely and where TB preventative and mitigation strategies (e.g. targeted vaccination, increased biosecurity, etc.) should be prioritized

  7. Renewable Energy Production from Waste to Mitigate Climate Change and Counteract Soil Degradation - A Spatial Explicit Assessment for Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kraxner, Florian; Yoshikawa, Kunio; Leduc, Sylvain; Fuss, Sabine; Aoki, Kentaro; Yamagata, Yoshiki

    2014-05-01

    Waste production from urban areas is growing faster than urbanization itself, while at the same time urban areas are increasingly contributing substantial emissions causing climate change. Estimates indicate for urban residents a per capita solid waste (MSW) production of 1.2 kg per day, subject to further increase to 1.5 kg beyond 2025. Waste water and sewage production is estimated at about 260 liters per capita and day, also at increasing rates. Based on these figures, waste - including e.g. MSW, sewage and animal manure - can generally be assumed as a renewable resource with varying organic components and quantity. This paper demonstrates how new and innovative technologies in the field of Waste-to-Green Products can help in various ways not only to reduce costs for waste treatment, reduce the pressure on largely overloaded dump sites, and reduce also the effect of toxic materials at the landfill site and by that i.e. protect the groundwater. Moreover, Waste-to-Green Products can contribute actively to mitigating climate change through fossil fuel substitution and carbon sequestration while at the same time counteracting negative land use effects from other types of renewable energy and feedstock production through substitution. At the same time, the co-production and recycling of fertilizing elements and biochar can substantially counteract soil degradation and improve the soil organic carbon content of different land use types. The overall objective of this paper is to assess the total climate change mitigation potential of MSW, sewage and animal manure for Japan. A techno-economic approach is used to inform the policy discussion on the suitability of this substantial and sustainable mitigation option. We examine the spatial explicit technical mitigation potential from e.g. energy substitution and carbon sequestration through biochar in rural and urban Japan. For this exercise, processed information on respective Japanese waste production, energy demand

  8. Assessment of mineral concentration impacts from pumped stormwater on an Everglades Wetland, Florida, USA - Using a spatially-explicit model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Chunfang; Meselhe, Ehab; Waldon, Michael

    2012-07-01

    SummaryThe Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) overlays a 58,725 ha remnant of the Northern Everglades which is termed Water Conservation Area 1 (WCA-1). The Refuge is impacted by stormwater inflow from flood control pump stations which discharge to a perimeter canal system inside an impounding levee. These discharges contain elevated mineral and nutrient concentrations, with chloride concentration averaging well over 100 mg/L. It has long been established that the Refuge naturally has low mineral content softwater, and that this low-mineral condition affects the species composition of wetland periphyton that are at the base of much of the Refuge food chain. The interior marsh of the Refuge has today been termed rainfall-driven or ombrotrophic, with median chloride concentration averaging 20.5 mg/L. However, chloride concentration in rain water averages roughly 2 mg/L. The level of impact of exogenous pumped inflow on the concentration of chloride and other mineral constituents in the interior marsh has been unclear, and at times it has been debated whether atmospheric loading and evaporation can alone explain observed concentration of chloride in the interior. We applied a spatially explicit hydrodynamic and constituent transport model, MIKE FLOOD, to estimate the unimpacted condition of the interior. We compare this with simulated and monitored chloride concentrations under current conditions. The model was calibrated for a 5-year period (2000-2004), and validated for a 2-year period (2005-2006). We found that when pumped inflow concentration is reduced to an estimated rainfall chloride concentration, interior chloride concentration ranges typically below 5 mg/L. We therefore conclude that the interior chloride concentration is currently dominated by pumped inflows and should not be termed ombrotrophic. We also present initial modeling of one proposed remedial solution for reducing this impact. Our study demonstrates the feasibility

  9. The pitcher plant flesh fly exhibits a mixture of patchy and metapopulation attributes.

    PubMed

    Rasic, Gordana; Keyghobadi, Nusha

    2012-01-01

    We investigated the pattern of spatial genetic structure and the extent of gene flow in the pitcher plant flesh fly Fletcherimyia fletcheri, the largest member of the inquiline community of the purple pitcher plant Sarracenia purpurea. Using microsatellite loci, we tested the theoretical predictions of different hypothesized population models (patchy population, metapopulation, or isolated populations) among 11 bogs in Algonquin Provincial Park (Canada). Our results revealed that the pitcher plant flesh fly exhibits a mixture of patchy and metapopulation characteristics. There is significant differentiation among bogs and limited gene flow at larger spatial scales, but local populations do not experience frequent local extinctions/recolonizations. Our findings suggest a strong dispersal ability and stable population sizes in F. fletcheri, providing novel insights into the ecology of this member of a unique ecological microcosm.

  10. Increasing frequency of low summer precipitation synchronizes dynamics and compromises metapopulation stability in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

    PubMed Central

    Tack, Ayco J. M.; Mononen, Tommi; Hanski, Ilkka

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is known to shift species' geographical ranges, phenologies and abundances, but less is known about other population dynamic consequences. Here, we analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in a network of 4000 dry meadows during 21 years. The results demonstrate two strong, related patterns: the amplitude of year-to-year fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole has increased, though there is no long-term trend in average abundance; and there is a highly significant increase in the level of spatial synchrony in population dynamics. The increased synchrony cannot be explained by increasing within-year spatial correlation in precipitation, the key environmental driver of population change, or in per capita growth rate. On the other hand, the frequency of drought during a critical life-history stage (early larval instars) has increased over the years, which is sufficient to explain the increasing amplitude and the expanding spatial synchrony in metapopulation dynamics. Increased spatial synchrony has the general effect of reducing long-term metapopulation viability even if there is no change in average metapopulation size. This study demonstrates how temporal changes in weather conditions can lead to striking changes in spatio-temporal population dynamics. PMID:25854888

  11. Structural complexity, movement bias, and metapopulation extinction risk in dendritic ecological networks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Campbell Grant, Evan H.

    2011-01-01

    Spatial complexity in metacommunities can be separated into 3 main components: size (i.e., number of habitat patches), spatial arrangement of habitat patches (network topology), and diversity of habitat patch types. Much attention has been paid to lattice-type networks, such as patch-based metapopulations, but interest in understanding ecological networks of alternative geometries is building. Dendritic ecological networks (DENs) include some increasingly threatened ecological systems, such as caves and streams. The restrictive architecture of dendritic ecological networks might have overriding implications for species persistence. I used a modeling approach to investigate how number and spatial arrangement of habitat patches influence metapopulation extinction risk in 2 DENs of different size and topology. Metapopulation persistence was higher in larger networks, but this relationship was mediated by network topology and the dispersal pathways used to navigate the network. Larger networks, especially those with greater topological complexity, generally had lower extinction risk than smaller and less-complex networks, but dispersal bias and magnitude affected the shape of this relationship. Applying these general results to real systems will require empirical data on the movement behavior of organisms and will improve our understanding of the implications of network complexity on population and community patterns and processes.

  12. Determinants of Genetic Structure in a Nonequilibrium Metapopulation of the Plant Silene latifolia

    PubMed Central

    Fields, Peter D.; Taylor, Douglas R.

    2014-01-01

    Population genetic differentiation will be influenced by the demographic history of populations, opportunities for migration among neighboring demes and founder effects associated with repeated extinction and recolonization. In natural populations, these factors are expected to interact with each other and their magnitudes will vary depending on the spatial distribution and age structure of local demes. Although each of these effects has been individually identified as important in structuring genetic variance, their relative magnitude is seldom estimated in nature. We conducted a population genetic analysis in a metapopulation of the angiosperm, Silene latifolia, from which we had more than 20 years of data on the spatial distribution, demographic history, and extinction and colonization of demes. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to disentangle which features of the populations contributed to among population variation in allele frequencies, including the magnitude and direction of their effects. We show that population age, long-term size and degree of connectivity all combine to affect the distribution of genetic variance; small, recently-founded, isolated populations contributed most to increase FST in the metapopulation. However, the effects of population size and population age are best understood as being modulated through the effects of connectivity to other extant populations, i.e. FST diminishes as populations age, but at a rate that depends how isolated the population is. These spatial and temporal correlates of population structure give insight into how migration, founder effect and within-deme genetic drift have combined to enhance and restrict genetic divergence in a natural metapopulation. PMID:25198341

  13. A spatially explicit hydro-ecological modeling framework (BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0): Model description and test in a boreal ecosystem in Eastern North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Govind, Ajit; Chen, Jing Ming; Margolis, Hank; Ju, Weimin; Sonnentag, Oliver; Giasson, Marc-André

    2009-04-01

    SummaryA spatially explicit, process-based hydro-ecological model, BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0, was developed to improve the representation of ecophysiological, hydro-ecological and biogeochemical processes of boreal ecosystems in a tightly coupled manner. Several processes unique to boreal ecosystems were implemented including the sub-surface lateral water fluxes, stratification of vegetation into distinct layers for explicit ecophysiological representation, inclusion of novel spatial upscaling strategies and biogeochemical processes. To account for preferential water fluxes common in humid boreal ecosystems, a novel scheme was introduced based on laboratory analyses. Leaf-scale ecophysiological processes were upscaled to canopy-scale by explicitly considering leaf physiological conditions as affected by light and water stress. The modified model was tested with 2 years of continuous measurements taken at the Eastern Old Black Spruce Site of the Fluxnet-Canada Research Network located in a humid boreal watershed in eastern Canada. Comparison of the simulated and measured ET, water-table depth (WTD), volumetric soil water content (VSWC) and gross primary productivity (GPP) revealed that BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0 simulates hydro-ecological processes with reasonable accuracy. The model was able to explain 83% of the ET, 92% of the GPP variability and 72% of the WTD dynamics. The model suggests that in humid ecosystems such as eastern North American boreal watersheds, topographically driven sub-surface baseflow is the main mechanism of soil water partitioning which significantly affects the local-scale hydrological conditions.

  14. Refugia and connectivity sustain amphibian metapopulations afflicted by disease.

    PubMed

    Heard, Geoffrey W; Thomas, Chris D; Hodgson, Jenny A; Scroggie, Michael P; Ramsey, David S L; Clemann, Nick

    2015-08-01

    Metapopulation persistence in fragmented landscapes depends on habitat patches that can support resilient local populations and sufficient connectivity between patches. Yet epidemiological theory for metapopulations has largely overlooked the capacity of particular patches to act as refuges from disease, and has suggested that connectivity can undermine persistence. Here, we show that relatively warm and saline wetlands are environmental refuges from chytridiomycosis for an endangered Australian frog, and act jointly with connectivity to sustain frog metapopulations. We coupled models of microclimate and infection probability to map chytrid prevalence, and demonstrate a strong negative relationship between chytrid prevalence and the persistence of frog populations. Simulations confirm that frog metapopulations are likely to go extinct when they lack environmental refuges from disease and lose connectivity between patches. This study demonstrates that environmental heterogeneity can mediate host-pathogen interactions in fragmented landscapes, and provides evidence that connectivity principally supports host metapopulations afflicted by facultative pathogens.

  15. Combining incidence and demographic modelling approaches to evaluate metapopulation parameters for an endangered riparian plant

    PubMed Central

    Charney, Noah D.; Record, Sydne

    2016-01-01

    Metapopulations are a central concept in ecology and conservation biology; however, estimating key parameters such as colonization rates presents a substantial obstacle to modelling metapopulations in many species. We develop spatial and non-spatial simulation models that combine incidence- and demographic-based approaches to build a relationship between observed patch occupancy, habitat turnover rates, colonization rates and dispersal scales. Applying these models to long-term observations of Pedicularis furbishiae (Furbish’s lousewort), a rare plant endemic to the Saint John River, we predict that observed habitat patches averaging 550 m in length receive colonizing seedlings with a yearly probability of 0.45 or 0.54, based on two different models. Predictions are consistent with a standard analytic metapopulation formulation modified to partition extinction drivers during the early and the late phases of a population’s life cycle. While the specific results rest on several simplifying assumptions, the models allow us to understand the impact that increasing rates of habitat turnover would have on the future survival of this species. PMID:27339047

  16. Modeling Behavior by Coastal River Otter (Lontra Canadensis) in Response to Prey Availability in Prince William Sound, Alaska: A Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Approach.

    PubMed

    Albeke, Shannon E; Nibbelink, Nathan P; Ben-David, Merav

    2015-01-01

    Effects of climate change on animal behavior and cascading ecosystem responses are rarely evaluated. In coastal Alaska, social river otters (Lontra Canadensis), largely males, cooperatively forage on schooling fish and use latrine sites to communicate group associations and dominance. Conversely, solitary otters, mainly females, feed on intertidal-demersal fish and display mutual avoidance via scent marking. This behavioral variability creates "hotspots" of nutrient deposition and affects plant productivity and diversity on the terrestrial landscape. Because the abundance of schooling pelagic fish is predicted to decline with climate change, we developed a spatially-explicit individual-based model (IBM) of otter behavior and tested six scenarios based on potential shifts to distribution patterns of schooling fish. Emergent patterns from the IBM closely mimicked observed otter behavior and landscape use in the absence of explicit rules of intraspecific attraction or repulsion. Model results were most sensitive to rules regarding spatial memory and activity state following an encounter with a fish school. With declining availability of schooling fish, the number of social groups and the time simulated otters spent in the company of conspecifics declined. Concurrently, model results suggested an elevation of defecation rate, a 25% increase in nitrogen transport to the terrestrial landscape, and significant changes to the spatial distribution of "hotspots" with declines in schooling fish availability. However, reductions in availability of schooling fish could lead to declines in otter density over time.

  17. Modeling Behavior by Coastal River Otter (Lontra Canadensis) in Response to Prey Availability in Prince William Sound, Alaska: A Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Approach

    PubMed Central

    Albeke, Shannon E.; Nibbelink, Nathan P.; Ben-David, Merav

    2015-01-01

    Effects of climate change on animal behavior and cascading ecosystem responses are rarely evaluated. In coastal Alaska, social river otters (Lontra Canadensis), largely males, cooperatively forage on schooling fish and use latrine sites to communicate group associations and dominance. Conversely, solitary otters, mainly females, feed on intertidal-demersal fish and display mutual avoidance via scent marking. This behavioral variability creates “hotspots” of nutrient deposition and affects plant productivity and diversity on the terrestrial landscape. Because the abundance of schooling pelagic fish is predicted to decline with climate change, we developed a spatially-explicit individual-based model (IBM) of otter behavior and tested six scenarios based on potential shifts to distribution patterns of schooling fish. Emergent patterns from the IBM closely mimicked observed otter behavior and landscape use in the absence of explicit rules of intraspecific attraction or repulsion. Model results were most sensitive to rules regarding spatial memory and activity state following an encounter with a fish school. With declining availability of schooling fish, the number of social groups and the time simulated otters spent in the company of conspecifics declined. Concurrently, model results suggested an elevation of defecation rate, a 25% increase in nitrogen transport to the terrestrial landscape, and significant changes to the spatial distribution of “hotspots” with declines in schooling fish availability. However, reductions in availability of schooling fish could lead to declines in otter density over time. PMID:26061497

  18. Spatially explicit assessment of estuarine fish after Deepwater Horizon oil spill: trade-off in complexity and parsimony

    EPA Science Inventory

    Evaluating long- term contaminant effects on wildlife populations depends on spatial information about habitat quality, heterogeneity in contaminant exposure, and sensitivities and distributions of species integrated into a systems modeling approach. Rarely is this information re...

  19. Forest corridors maintain historical gene flow in a tiger metapopulation in the highlands of central India

    PubMed Central

    Sharma, Sandeep; Dutta, Trishna; Maldonado, Jesús E.; Wood, Thomas C.; Panwar, Hemendra Singh; Seidensticker, John

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the patterns of gene flow of an endangered species metapopulation occupying a fragmented habitat is crucial for landscape-level conservation planning and devising effective conservation strategies. Tigers (Panthera tigris) are globally endangered and their populations are highly fragmented and exist in a few isolated metapopulations across their range. We used multi-locus genotypic data from 273 individual tigers (Panthera tigris tigris) from four tiger populations of the Satpura–Maikal landscape of central India to determine whether the corridors in this landscape are functional. This 45 000 km2 landscape contains 17% of India's tiger population and 12% of its tiger habitat. We applied Bayesian and coalescent-based analyses to estimate contemporary and historical gene flow among these populations and to infer their evolutionary history. We found that the tiger metapopulation in central India has high rates of historical and contemporary gene flow. The tests for population history reveal that tigers populated central India about 10 000 years ago. Their population subdivision began about 1000 years ago and accelerated about 200 years ago owing to habitat fragmentation, leading to four spatially separated populations. These four populations have been in migration–drift equilibrium maintained by high gene flow. We found the highest rates of contemporary gene flow in populations that are connected by forest corridors. This information is highly relevant to conservation practitioners and policy makers, because deforestation, road widening and mining are imminent threats to these corridors. PMID:23902910

  20. Forest corridors maintain historical gene flow in a tiger metapopulation in the highlands of central India.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Sandeep; Dutta, Trishna; Maldonado, Jesús E; Wood, Thomas C; Panwar, Hemendra Singh; Seidensticker, John

    2013-09-22

    Understanding the patterns of gene flow of an endangered species metapopulation occupying a fragmented habitat is crucial for landscape-level conservation planning and devising effective conservation strategies. Tigers (Panthera tigris) are globally endangered and their populations are highly fragmented and exist in a few isolated metapopulations across their range. We used multi-locus genotypic data from 273 individual tigers (Panthera tigris tigris) from four tiger populations of the Satpura-Maikal landscape of central India to determine whether the corridors in this landscape are functional. This 45 000 km(2) landscape contains 17% of India's tiger population and 12% of its tiger habitat. We applied Bayesian and coalescent-based analyses to estimate contemporary and historical gene flow among these populations and to infer their evolutionary history. We found that the tiger metapopulation in central India has high rates of historical and contemporary gene flow. The tests for population history reveal that tigers populated central India about 10 000 years ago. Their population subdivision began about 1000 years ago and accelerated about 200 years ago owing to habitat fragmentation, leading to four spatially separated populations. These four populations have been in migration-drift equilibrium maintained by high gene flow. We found the highest rates of contemporary gene flow in populations that are connected by forest corridors. This information is highly relevant to conservation practitioners and policy makers, because deforestation, road widening and mining are imminent threats to these corridors.

  1. Applications of Rapid Evaluation of Metapopulation Persistence (REMP) in Conservation Planning for Vulnerable Fauna Species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, Subhashni; Drielsma, Michael; Taylor, Robert; Kumar, Lalit

    2016-06-01

    In many regions species are declining due to fragmentation and loss of habitat. If species persistence is to be achieved, ecologically informed, effective conservation action is required. Yet it remains a challenge to identify optimal places in a landscape to direct habitat reconstruction and management. Rather than relying on individual landscape metrics, process-based regional scale assessment methodology is needed that focuses primarily on species persistence. This means integrating, according to species' ecology, habitat extent, suitability, quality and spatial configuration. The rapid evaluation of metapopulation persistence (REMP) methodology has been developed for this purpose. However, till now no practical conservation planning application of REMP has been described. By integration of expert ecological knowledge, we extended REMP's capabilities to prioritize conservation action for a highly modified agricultural region of central NSW, Australia based on the metapopulation ecology of 34 fauna species. The region's current capacity to support the species was evaluated in relation to the pre-European state for which there was known viability. Six of the species were found to currently have insufficient habitat to support viable populations. Seeking locations to maximize overall improvement in viability for these species, we prioritized conservation action to locations near the threshold of metapopulation persistence.

  2. Effects of matrix heterogeneity on animal dispersal: from individual behavior to metapopulation-level parameters.

    PubMed

    Revilla, Eloy; Wiegand, Thorsten; Palomares, Francisco; Ferreras, Pablo; Delibes, Miguel

    2004-11-01

    Mounting theoretical and empirical evidence shows that matrix heterogeneity may have contrasting effects on metapopulation dynamics by contributing to patch isolation in nontrivial ways. We analyze the movement properties during interpatch dispersal in a metapopulation of Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus). On a daily temporal scale, lynx habitat selection defines two types of matrix habitats where individuals may move: open and dispersal habitats (avoided and used as available, respectively). There was a strong and complex impact of matrix heterogeneity on movement properties at several temporal scales (hourly and daily radiolocations and the entire dispersal event). We use the movement properties on the hourly temporal scale to build a simulation model to reconstruct individual dispersal events. The two most important parameters affecting model predictions at both the individual (daily) and metapopulation scales were related to the movement capacity (number of movement steps per day and autocorrelation in dispersal habitat) followed by the parameters representing the habitat selection in the matrix. The model adequately reproduced field estimates of population-level parameters (e.g., interpatch connectivity, maximum and final dispersal distances), and its performance was clearly improved when including the effect of matrix heterogeneity on movement properties. To assume there is a homogeneous matrix results in large errors in the estimate of interpatch connectivity, especially for close patches separated by open habitat or corridors of dispersal habitat, showing how important it is to consider matrix heterogeneity when it is present. Movement properties affect the interaction of dispersing individuals with the landscape and can be used as a mechanistic representation of dispersal at the metapopulation level. This is so when the effect of matrix heterogeneity on movement properties is evaluated under biologically meaningful spatial and temporal scales.

  3. Factors influencing export of dissolved inorganic nitrogen by major rivers: a new seasonal, spatially explicit, global model

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background/Question/Methods Substantial effort has focused on understanding spatial variation in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export to the coastal zone and specific basins have been studied in some depth. Much less is known, however, about seasonal patterns and controls ...

  4. Factors influencing export of dissolved inorganic nitrogen by major rivers: A new seasonal, spatially explicit, global model - 2012

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background/Question/Methods Substantial effort has focused on understanding spatial variation in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export to the coastal zone and specific basins have been studied in some depth. Much less is known, however, about seasonal patterns and zone and ...

  5. Factors influencing export of dissolved inorganic nitrogen by major rivers: A new, seasonal, spatially explicit, global model

    EPA Science Inventory

    Substantial effort has focused on understanding spatial variation in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export to the coastal zone and specific basins have been studied in depth. Much less is known, however, about seasonal patterns and controls of coastal DIN delivery across larg...

  6. REMOTE SENSING AND SPATIALLY EXPLICIT LANDSCAPE-BASED NITROGEN MODELING METHODS DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEUSE RIVER BASIN, NC

    EPA Science Inventory

    The objective of this research was to model and map the spatial patterns of excess nitrogen (N) sources across the landscape within the Neuse River Basin (NRB) of North
    Carolina. The process included an initial land cover characterization effort to map landscape "patches" at ...

  7. Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China.

    PubMed

    Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

    2015-11-09

    Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution-severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems.

  8. Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China

    PubMed Central

    Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

    2015-01-01

    Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution—severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems. PMID:26569270

  9. Reconciling nature conservation and traditional farming practices: a spatially explicit framework to assess the extent of High Nature Value farmlands in the European countryside

    PubMed Central

    Lomba, Angela; Alves, Paulo; Jongman, Rob H G; McCracken, David I

    2015-01-01

    Agriculture constitutes a dominant land cover worldwide, and rural landscapes under extensive farming practices acknowledged due to high biodiversity levels. The High Nature Value farmland (HNVf) concept has been highlighted in the EU environmental and rural policies due to their inherent potential to help characterize and direct financial support to European landscapes where high nature and/or conservation value is dependent on the continuation of specific low-intensity farming systems. Assessing the extent of HNV farmland by necessity relies on the availability of both ecological and farming systems' data, and difficulties associated with making such assessments have been widely described across Europe. A spatially explicit framework of data collection, building out from local administrative units, has recently been suggested as a means of addressing such difficulties. This manuscript tests the relevance of the proposed approach, describes the spatially explicit framework in a case study area in northern Portugal, and discusses the potential of the approach to help better inform the implementation of conservation and rural development policies. Synthesis and applications: The potential of a novel approach (combining land use/cover, farming and environmental data) to provide more accurate and efficient mapping and monitoring of HNV farmlands is tested at the local level in northern Portugal. The approach is considered to constitute a step forward toward a more precise targeting of landscapes for agri-environment schemes, as it allowed a more accurate discrimination of areas within the case study landscape that have a higher value for nature conservation. PMID:25798221

  10. Probability of identity by descent in metapopulations.

    PubMed Central

    Kaj, I; Lascoux, M

    1999-01-01

    Equilibrium probabilities of identity by descent (IBD), for pairs of genes within individuals, for genes between individuals within subpopulations, and for genes between subpopulations are calculated in metapopulation models with fixed or varying colony sizes. A continuous-time analog to the Moran model was used in either case. For fixed-colony size both propagule and migrant pool models were considered. The varying population size model is based on a birth-death-immigration (BDI) process, to which migration between colonies is added. Wright's F statistics are calculated and compared to previous results. Adding between-island migration to the BDI model can have an important effect on the equilibrium probabilities of IBD and on Wright's index. PMID:10388835

  11. Modeling vaccination in a heterogeneous metapopulation system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lachiany, Menachem

    2016-09-01

    We present here a multicity SIS epidemic model with vaccination. The model describes the dynamics of heterogeneous metapopulations that contain imperfectly vaccinated individuals. The effect of vaccination on heterogeneous multicity models has not been previously studied. We show that under very generic conditions, the epidemic threshold does not depend on the diffusion coefficient of the vaccinated individuals, but it does depend on the diffusion coefficient of the infected population. We then show, using a novel methodology, that the reproduction number is determined by the homogeneous model parameters and by the maximal number of neighbors a city can have, when the diffusion coefficient of the infected population is low. Finally, we present numerical simulations to support the analytical results.

  12. Landscape genetics of high mountain frog metapopulations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Murphy, M.A.; Dezzani, R.; Pilliod, D.S.; Storfer, A.

    2010-01-01

    Explaining functional connectivity among occupied habitats is crucial for understanding metapopulation dynamics and species ecology. Landscape genetics has primarily focused on elucidating how ecological features between observations influence gene flow. Functional connectivity, however, may be the result of both these between-site (landscape resistance) landscape characteristics and at-site (patch quality) landscape processes that can be captured using network based models. We test hypotheses of functional connectivity that include both between-site and at-site landscape processes in metapopulations of Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) by employing a novel justification of gravity models for landscape genetics (eight microsatellite loci, 37 sites, n = 441). Primarily used in transportation and economic geography, gravity models are a unique approach as flow (e.g. gene flow) is explained as a function of three basic components: distance between sites, production/attraction (e.g. at-site landscape process) and resistance (e.g. between-site landscape process). The study system contains a network of nutrient poor high mountain lakes where we hypothesized a short growing season and complex topography between sites limit R. luteiventris gene flow. In addition, we hypothesized production of offspring is limited by breeding site characteristics such as the introduction of predatory fish and inherent site productivity. We found that R. luteiventris connectivity was negatively correlated with distance between sites, presence of predatory fish (at-site) and topographic complexity (between-site). Conversely, site productivity (as measured by heat load index, at-site) and growing season (as measured by frost-free period between-sites) were positively correlated with gene flow. The negative effect of predation and positive effect of site productivity, in concert with bottleneck tests, support the presence of source-sink dynamics. In conclusion, gravity models provide a

  13. Landscape genetics of high mountain frog metapopulations.

    PubMed

    Murphy, Melanie A; Dezzani, R; Pilliod, D S; Storfer, A

    2010-09-01

    Explaining functional connectivity among occupied habitats is crucial for understanding metapopulation dynamics and species ecology. Landscape genetics has primarily focused on elucidating how ecological features between observations influence gene flow. Functional connectivity, however, may be the result of both these between-site (landscape resistance) landscape characteristics and at-site (patch quality) landscape processes that can be captured using network based models. We test hypotheses of functional connectivity that include both between-site and at-site landscape processes in metapopulations of Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) by employing a novel justification of gravity models for landscape genetics (eight microsatellite loci, 37 sites, n = 441). Primarily used in transportation and economic geography, gravity models are a unique approach as flow (e.g. gene flow) is explained as a function of three basic components: distance between sites, production/attraction (e.g. at-site landscape process) and resistance (e.g. between-site landscape process). The study system contains a network of nutrient poor high mountain lakes where we hypothesized a short growing season and complex topography between sites limit R. luteiventris gene flow. In addition, we hypothesized production of offspring is limited by breeding site characteristics such as the introduction of predatory fish and inherent site productivity. We found that R. luteiventris connectivity was negatively correlated with distance between sites, presence of predatory fish (at-site) and topographic complexity (between-site). Conversely, site productivity (as measured by heat load index, at-site) and growing season (as measured by frost-free period between-sites) were positively correlated with gene flow. The negative effect of predation and positive effect of site productivity, in concert with bottleneck tests, support the presence of source-sink dynamics. In conclusion, gravity models provide a

  14. Spatially explicit modeling of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) habitat in Nevada and northeastern California: a decision-support tool for management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Ricca, Mark A.; Gustafson, K. Benjamin; Overton, Cory T.; Sanchez-Chopitea, Erika; Kroger, Travis; Mauch, Kimberly; Niell, Lara; Howe, Kristy; Gardner, Scott; Espinosa, Shawn; Delehanty, David J.

    2014-01-01

    Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus, hereafter referred to as “sage-grouse”) populations are declining throughout the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystem, including millions of acres of potential habitat across the West. Habitat maps derived from empirical data are needed given impending listing decisions that will affect both sage-grouse population dynamics and human land-use restrictions. This report presents the process for developing spatially explicit maps describing relative habitat suitability for sage-grouse in Nevada and northeastern California. Maps depicting habitat suitability indices (HSI) values were generated based on model-averaged resource selection functions informed by more than 31,000 independent telemetry locations from more than 1,500 radio-marked sage-grouse across 12 project areas in Nevada and northeastern California collected during a 15-year period (1998–2013). Modeled habitat covariates included land cover composition, water resources, habitat configuration, elevation, and topography, each at multiple spatial scales that were relevant to empirically observed sage-grouse movement patterns. We then present an example of how the HSI can be delineated into categories. Specifically, we demonstrate that the deviation from the mean can be used to classify habitat suitability into three categories of habitat quality (high, moderate, and low) and one non-habitat category. The classification resulted in an agreement of 93–97 percent for habitat versus non-habitat across a suite of independent validation datasets. Lastly, we provide an example of how space use models can be integrated with habitat models to help inform conservation planning. In this example, we combined probabilistic breeding density with a non-linear probability of occurrence relative to distance to nearest lek (traditional breeding ground) using count data to calculate a composite space use index (SUI). The SUI was then classified into two categories of use

  15. SMART: a spatially explicit bio-economic model for assessing and managing demersal fisheries, with an application to italian trawlers in the strait of sicily.

    PubMed

    Russo, Tommaso; Parisi, Antonio; Garofalo, Germana; Gristina, Michele; Cataudella, Stefano; Fiorentino, Fabio

    2014-01-01

    Management of catches, effort and exploitation pattern are considered the most effective measures to control fishing mortality and ultimately ensure productivity and sustainability of fisheries. Despite the growing concerns about the spatial dimension of fisheries, the distribution of resources and fishing effort in space is seldom considered in assessment and management processes. Here we propose SMART (Spatial MAnagement of demersal Resources for Trawl fisheries), a tool for assessing bio-economic feedback in different management scenarios. SMART combines information from different tasks gathered within the European Data Collection Framework on fisheries and is composed of: 1) spatial models of fishing effort, environmental characteristics and distribution of demersal resources; 2) an Artificial Neural Network which captures the relationships among these aspects in a spatially explicit way and uses them to predict resources abundances; 3) a deterministic module which analyzes the size structure of catches and the associated revenues, according to different spatially-based management scenarios. SMART is applied to demersal fishery in the Strait of Sicily, one of the most productive fisheries of the Mediterranean Sea. Three of the main target species are used as proxies for the whole range exploited by trawlers. After training, SMART is used to evaluate different management scenarios, including spatial closures, using a simulation approach that mimics the recent exploitation patterns. Results evidence good model performance, with a noteworthy coherence and reliability of outputs for the different components. Among others, the main finding is that a partial improvement in resource conditions can be achieved by means of nursery closures, even if the overall fishing effort in the area remains stable. Accordingly, a series of strategically designed areas of trawling closures could significantly improve the resource conditions of demersal fisheries in the Strait of

  16. SMART: A Spatially Explicit Bio-Economic Model for Assessing and Managing Demersal Fisheries, with an Application to Italian Trawlers in the Strait of Sicily

    PubMed Central

    Russo, Tommaso; Parisi, Antonio; Garofalo, Germana; Gristina, Michele; Cataudella, Stefano; Fiorentino, Fabio

    2014-01-01

    Management of catches, effort and exploitation pattern are considered the most effective measures to control fishing mortality and ultimately ensure productivity and sustainability of fisheries. Despite the growing concerns about the spatial dimension of fisheries, the distribution of resources and fishing effort in space is seldom considered in assessment and management processes. Here we propose SMART (Spatial MAnagement of demersal Resources for Trawl fisheries), a tool for assessing bio-economic feedback in different management scenarios. SMART combines information from different tasks gathered within the European Data Collection Framework on fisheries and is composed of: 1) spatial models of fishing effort, environmental characteristics and distribution of demersal resources; 2) an Artificial Neural Network which captures the relationships among these aspects in a spatially explicit way and uses them to predict resources abundances; 3) a deterministic module which analyzes the size structure of catches and the associated revenues, according to different spatially-based management scenarios. SMART is applied to demersal fishery in the Strait of Sicily, one of the most productive fisheries of the Mediterranean Sea. Three of the main target species are used as proxies for the whole range exploited by trawlers. After training, SMART is used to evaluate different management scenarios, including spatial closures, using a simulation approach that mimics the recent exploitation patterns. Results evidence good model performance, with a noteworthy coherence and reliability of outputs for the different components. Among others, the main finding is that a partial improvement in resource conditions can be achieved by means of nursery closures, even if the overall fishing effort in the area remains stable. Accordingly, a series of strategically designed areas of trawling closures could significantly improve the resource conditions of demersal fisheries in the Strait of

  17. Agro-hydrology and multi-temporal high-resolution remote sensing: toward an explicit spatial processes calibration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferrant, S.; Gascoin, S.; Veloso, A.; Salmon-Monviola, J.; Claverie, M.; Rivalland, V.; Dedieu, G.; Demarez, V.; Ceschia, E.; Probst, J.-L.; Durand, P.; Bustillo, V.

    2014-12-01

    The growing availability of high-resolution satellite image series offers new opportunities in agro-hydrological research and modeling. We investigated the possibilities offered for improving crop-growth dynamic simulation with the distributed agro-hydrological model: topography-based nitrogen transfer and transformation (TNT2). We used a leaf area index (LAI) map series derived from 105 Formosat-2 (F2) images covering the period 2006-2010. The TNT2 model (Beaujouan et al., 2002), calibrated against discharge and in-stream nitrate fluxes for the period 1985-2001, was tested on the 2005-2010 data set (climate, land use, agricultural practices, and discharge and nitrate fluxes at the outlet). Data from the first year (2005) were used to initialize the hydrological model. A priori agricultural practices obtained from an extensive field survey, such as seeding date, crop cultivar, and amount of fertilizer, were used as input variables. Continuous values of LAI as a function of cumulative daily temperature were obtained at the crop-field level by fitting a double logistic equation against discrete satellite-derived LAI. Model predictions of LAI dynamics using the a priori input parameters displayed temporal shifts from those observed LAI profiles that are irregularly distributed in space (between field crops) and time (between years). By resetting the seeding date at the crop-field level, we have developed an optimization method designed to efficiently minimize this temporal shift and better fit the crop growth against both the spatial observations and crop production. This optimization of simulated LAI has a negligible impact on water budgets at the catchment scale (1 mm yr-1 on average) but a noticeable impact on in-stream nitrogen fluxes (around 12%), which is of interest when considering nitrate stream contamination issues and the objectives of TNT2 modeling. This study demonstrates the potential contribution of the forthcoming high spatial and temporal resolution

  18. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    PubMed

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

    2016-10-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale.

  19. Spatiotemporal prediction of continuous daily PM2.5 concentrations across China using a spatially explicit machine learning algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhan, Yu; Luo, Yuzhou; Deng, Xunfei; Chen, Huajin; Grieneisen, Michael L.; Shen, Xueyou; Zhu, Lizhong; Zhang, Minghua

    2017-04-01

    A high degree of uncertainty associated with the emission inventory for China tends to degrade the performance of chemical transport models in predicting PM2.5 concentrations especially on a daily basis. In this study a novel machine learning algorithm, Geographically-Weighted Gradient Boosting Machine (GW-GBM), was developed by improving GBM through building spatial smoothing kernels to weigh the loss function. This modification addressed the spatial nonstationarity of the relationships between PM2.5 concentrations and predictor variables such as aerosol optical depth (AOD) and meteorological conditions. GW-GBM also overcame the estimation bias of PM2.5 concentrations due to missing AOD retrievals, and thus potentially improved subsequent exposure analyses. GW-GBM showed good performance in predicting daily PM2.5 concentrations (R2 = 0.76, RMSE = 23.0 μg/m3) even with partially missing AOD data, which was better than the original GBM model (R2 = 0.71, RMSE = 25.3 μg/m3). On the basis of the continuous spatiotemporal prediction of PM2.5 concentrations, it was predicted that 95% of the population lived in areas where the estimated annual mean PM2.5 concentration was higher than 35 μg/m3, and 45% of the population was exposed to PM2.5 >75 μg/m3 for over 100 days in 2014. GW-GBM accurately predicted continuous daily PM2.5 concentrations in China for assessing acute human health effects.

  20. Evaluating effects of Everglades restoration on American crocodile populations in south Florida using a spatially-explicit, stage-based population model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Green, Timothy W.; Slone, Daniel H.; Swain, Eric D.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Lohmann, Melinda; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Rice, Kenneth G.

    2014-01-01

    The distribution and abundance of the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) in the Florida Everglades is dependent on the timing, amount, and location of freshwater flow. One of the goals of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) is to restore historic freshwater flows to American crocodile habitat throughout the Everglades. To predict the impacts on the crocodile population from planned restoration activities, we created a stage-based spatially explicit crocodile population model that incorporated regional hydrology models and American crocodile research and monitoring data. Growth and survival were influenced by salinity, water depth, and density-dependent interactions. A stage-structured spatial model was used with discrete spatial convolution to direct crocodiles toward attractive sources where conditions were favorable. The model predicted that CERP would have both positive and negative impacts on American crocodile growth, survival, and distribution. Overall, crocodile populations across south Florida were predicted to decrease approximately 3 % with the implementation of CERP compared to future conditions without restoration, but local increases up to 30 % occurred in the Joe Bay area near Taylor Slough, and local decreases up to 30 % occurred in the vicinity of Buttonwood Canal due to changes in salinity and freshwater flows.

  1. Population-specific life histories contribute to metapopulation viability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Halsey, Samniqueka J.; Bell, Timothy J.; McEachern, Kathryn; Pavlovic, Noel B.

    2016-01-01

    Restoration efforts can be improved by understanding how variations in life-history traits occur within populations of the same species living in different environments. This can be done by first understanding the demographic responses of natural occurring populations. Population viability analysis continues to be useful to species management and conservation with sensitivity analysis aiding in the understanding of population dynamics. In this study, using life-table response experiments and elasticity analyses, we investigated how population-specific life-history demographic responses contributed to the metapopulation viability of the Federally threatened Pitcher's thistle (Cirsium pitcheri). Specifically, we tested the following hypotheses: (1) Subpopulations occupying different environments within a metapopulation have independent demographic responses and (2) advancing succession results in a shift from a demographic response focused on growth and fecundity to one dominated by stasis. Our results showed that reintroductions had a positive contribution to the metapopulation growth rate as compared to native populations which had a negative contribution. We found no difference in succession on the contribution to metapopulation viability. In addition, we identified distinct population-specific contributions to metapopulation viability and were able to associate specific life-history demographic responses. For example, the positive impact of Miller High Dunes population on the metapopulation growth rate resulted from high growth contributions, whereas increased time of plant in stasis for the State Park Big Blowout population resulted in negative contributions. A greater understanding of how separate populations respond in their corresponding environment may ultimately lead to more effective management strategies aimed at reducing extinction risk. We propose the continued use of sensitivity analyses to evaluate population-specific demographic influences on

  2. Spatially explicit power analyses for occupancy-based monitoring of wolverine in the U.S. Rocky Mountains.

    PubMed

    Ellis, Martha M; Ivan, Jacob S; Schwartz, Michael K

    2014-02-01

    Conservation scientists and resource managers often have to design monitoring programs for species that are rare or patchily distributed across large landscapes. Such programs are frequently expensive and seldom can be conducted by one entity. It is essential that a prospective power analysis be undertaken to ensure stated monitoring goals are feasible. We developed a spatially based simulation program that accounts for natural history, habitat use, and sampling scheme to investigate the power of monitoring protocols to detect trends in population abundance over time with occupancy-based methods. We analyzed monitoring schemes with different sampling efforts for wolverine (Gulo gulo) populations in 2 areas of the U.S. Rocky Mountains. The relation between occupancy and abundance was nonlinear and depended on landscape, population size, and movement parameters. With current estimates for population size and detection probability in the northern U.S. Rockies, most sampling schemes were only able to detect large declines in abundance in the simulations (i.e., 50% decline over 10 years). For small populations reestablishing in the Southern Rockies, occupancy-based methods had enough power to detect population trends only when populations were increasing dramatically (e.g., doubling or tripling in 10 years), regardless of sampling effort. In general, increasing the number of cells sampled or the per-visit detection probability had a much greater effect on power than the number of visits conducted during a survey. Although our results are specific to wolverines, this approach could easily be adapted to other territorial species.

  3. A spatially-explicit data driven approach to assess the effect of agricultural land occupation on species groups

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elshout, P.; van Zelm, R.; Karuppiah, R.; Laurenzi, I.; Huijbregts, M.

    2013-12-01

    Change of vegetation cover and increased land use intensity can directly affect the natural habitat and the wildlife it houses. The actual impact of agricultural land use is region specific as crops are grown under various climatic conditions and ways of cultivation and refining. Furthermore, growing a specific crop in a tropical region may require clearance of rainforest while the same crop may replace natural grasslands in temperate regions. Within life cycle impact assessment (LCIA), methods to address impacts of land use on a global scale are still in need of development. We aim to extend existing methods to improve the robustness of LCIA by allowing spatial differentiation of agricultural land use impacts. The goal of this study is to develop characterization factors for the direct impact of land use on biodiversity, which results from the replacement of natural habitat with farmland. The characterization factor expresses the change in species richness under crop cultivation compared to the species richness in the natural situation over a certain area. A second goal was to identify the differences in impacts caused by cultivation of different crop types, sensitivity of different taxonomic groups, and differences in natural land cover. Empirical data on species richness were collected from literature for both natural reference situations and agricultural land use situations. Reference situations were selected on an ecoregion or biome basis. We calculated characterization factors for four crop groups (oil palm, low crops, cereals, and perennial grasses), four species groups (arthropods, birds, mammals, vascular plants), and six biomes.

  4. Spatially explicit simulation of hydrologically controlled carbon and nitrogen cycles and associated feedback mechanisms in a boreal ecosystem in Eastern Canada.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Govind, A.; Chen, J. M.; Margolis, H.

    2007-12-01

    Current estimates of terrestrial carbon overlook the effects of topographically-driven lateral flow of soil water. We hypothesize that this component, which occur at a landscape or watershed scale have significant influences on the spatial distribution of carbon, due to its large contribution to the local water balance. To this end, we further developed a spatially explicit ecohydrological model, BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0. We simulated the coupled hydrological and carbon cycle processes in a black spruce-moss ecosystem in central Quebec, Canada. The carbon stocks were initialized using a long term carbon cycling model, InTEC, under a climate change and disturbance scenario, the accuracy of which was determined with inventory plot measurements. Further, we simulated and validated several ecosystem indicators such as ET, GPP, NEP, water table, snow depth and soil temperature, using the measurements for two years, 2004 and 2005. After gaining confidence in the model's ability to simulate ecohydrological processes, we tested the influence of lateral water flow on the carbon cycle. We made three hydrological modeling scenarios 1) Explicit, were realistic lateral water routing was considered 2) Implicit where calculations were based on a bucket modeling approach 3) NoFlow, where the lateral water flow was turned off in the model. The results showed that pronounced anomalies exist among the scenarios for the simulated GPP, ET and NEP. In general, Implicit calculation overestimated GPP and underestimated NEP, as opposed to Explicit simulation. NoFlow underestimated GPP and overestimated NEP. The key processes controlling GPP were manifested through stomatal conductance which reduces under conditions of rapid soil saturation ( NoFlow ) or increases in the Implicit case, and, nitrogen availability which affects Vcmax, the maximum carboxylation rate. However, for NEP, the anomalies were attributed to differences in soil carbon pool decomposition, which determine the heterotrophic

  5. Spatially Explicit Analysis of Genome-Wide SNPs Detects Subtle Population Structure in a Mobile Marine Mammal, the Harbor Porpoise

    PubMed Central

    Lah, Ljerka; Trense, Daronja; Benke, Harald; Berggren, Per; Gunnlaugsson, Þorvaldur; Lockyer, Christina; Öztürk, Ayaka; Öztürk, Bayram; Pawliczka, Iwona; Roos, Anna; Siebert, Ursula; Víkingsson, Gísli; Tiedemann, Ralph

    2016-01-01

    The population structure of the highly mobile marine mammal, the harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena), in the Atlantic shelf waters follows a pattern of significant isolation-by-distance. The population structure of harbor porpoises from the Baltic Sea, which is connected with the North Sea through a series of basins separated by shallow underwater ridges, however, is more complex. Here, we investigated the population differentiation of harbor porpoises in European Seas with a special focus on the Baltic Sea and adjacent waters, using a population genomics approach. We used 2872 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), derived from double digest restriction-site associated DNA sequencing (ddRAD-seq), as well as 13 microsatellite loci and mitochondrial haplotypes for the same set of individuals. Spatial principal components analysis (sPCA), and Bayesian clustering on a subset of SNPs suggest three main groupings at the level of all studied regions: the Black Sea, the North Atlantic, and the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, we observed a distinct separation of the North Sea harbor porpoises from the Baltic Sea populations, and identified splits between porpoise populations within the Baltic Sea. We observed a notable distinction between the Belt Sea and the Inner Baltic Sea sub-regions. Improved delineation of harbor porpoise population assignments for the Baltic based on genomic evidence is important for conservation management of this endangered cetacean in threatened habitats, particularly in the Baltic Sea proper. In addition, we show that SNPs outperform microsatellite markers and demonstrate the utility of RAD-tags from a relatively small, opportunistically sampled cetacean sample set for population diversity and divergence analysis. PMID:27783621

  6. Anticipating Knowledge to Inform Species Management: Predicting Spatially Explicit Habitat Suitability of a Colonial Vulture Spreading Its Range

    PubMed Central

    Mateo-Tomás, Patricia; Olea, Pedro P.

    2010-01-01

    Background The knowledge of both potential distribution and habitat suitability is fundamental in spreading species to inform in advance management and conservation planning. After a severe decline in the past decades, the griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus) is now spreading its breeding range towards the northwest in Spain and Europe. Because of its key ecological function, anticipated spatial knowledge is required to inform appropriately both vulture and ecosystem management. Methodology/Findings Here we used maximum entropy (Maxent) models to determine the habitat suitability of potential and current breeding distribution of the griffon vulture using presence-only data (N = 124 colonies) in north-western Spain. The most relevant ecological factors shaping this habitat suitability were also identified. The resulting model had a high predictive performance and was able to predict species' historical distribution. 7.5% (∼1,850 km2) of the study area resulted to be suitable breeding habitat, most of which (∼70%) is already occupied by the species. Cliff availability and livestock density, especially of sheep and goats, around 10 km of the colonies were the fundamental factors determining breeding habitat suitability for this species. Conclusions/Significance Griffon vultures could still spread 50–60 km towards the west, increasing their breeding range in 1,782 km2. According to our results, 7.22% of the area suitable for griffon vulture will be affected by wind farms, so our results could help to better plan wind farm locations. The approach here developed could be useful to inform management of reintroductions and recovery programmes currently being implemented for both the griffon vulture and other threatened vulture species. PMID:20811501

  7. Spatially Explicit Analysis of Genome-Wide SNPs Detects Subtle Population Structure in a Mobile Marine Mammal, the Harbor Porpoise.

    PubMed

    Lah, Ljerka; Trense, Daronja; Benke, Harald; Berggren, Per; Gunnlaugsson, Þorvaldur; Lockyer, Christina; Öztürk, Ayaka; Öztürk, Bayram; Pawliczka, Iwona; Roos, Anna; Siebert, Ursula; Skóra, Krzysztof; Víkingsson, Gísli; Tiedemann, Ralph

    2016-01-01

    The population structure of the highly mobile marine mammal, the harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena), in the Atlantic shelf waters follows a pattern of significant isolation-by-distance. The population structure of harbor porpoises from the Baltic Sea, which is connected with the North Sea through a series of basins separated by shallow underwater ridges, however, is more complex. Here, we investigated the population differentiation of harbor porpoises in European Seas with a special focus on the Baltic Sea and adjacent waters, using a population genomics approach. We used 2872 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), derived from double digest restriction-site associated DNA sequencing (ddRAD-seq), as well as 13 microsatellite loci and mitochondrial haplotypes for the same set of individuals. Spatial principal components analysis (sPCA), and Bayesian clustering on a subset of SNPs suggest three main groupings at the level of all studied regions: the Black Sea, the North Atlantic, and the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, we observed a distinct separation of the North Sea harbor porpoises from the Baltic Sea populations, and identified splits between porpoise populations within the Baltic Sea. We observed a notable distinction between the Belt Sea and the Inner Baltic Sea sub-regions. Improved delineation of harbor porpoise population assignments for the Baltic based on genomic evidence is important for conservation management of this endangered cetacean in threatened habitats, particularly in the Baltic Sea proper. In addition, we show that SNPs outperform microsatellite markers and demonstrate the utility of RAD-tags from a relatively small, opportunistically sampled cetacean sample set for population diversity and divergence analysis.

  8. Comparison of reintroduction and enhancement effects on metapopulation viability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Halsey, Samniqueka J; Bell, Timothy J.; McEachern, Kathryn; Pavlovic, Noel B.

    2015-01-01

    Metapopulation viability depends upon a balance of extinction and colonization of local habitats by a species. Mechanisms that can affect this balance include physical characteristics related to natural processes (e.g. succession) as well as anthropogenic actions. Plant restorations can help to produce favorable metapopulation dynamics and consequently increase viability; however, to date no studies confirm this is true. Population viability analysis (PVA) allows for the use of empirical data to generate theoretical future projections in the form of median time to extinction and probability of extinction. In turn, PVAs can inform and aid the development of conservation, recovery, and management plans. Pitcher's thistle (Cirsium pitcheri) is a dune endemic that exhibited metapopulation dynamics. We projected viability of three natural and two restored populations with demographic data spanning 15–23 years to determine the degree the addition of reintroduced population affects metapopulation viability. The models were validated by comparing observed and projected abundances and adjusting parameters associated with demographic and environmental stochasticity to improve model performance. Our chosen model correctly predicted yearly population abundance for 60% of the population-years. Using that model, 50-year projections showed that the addition of reintroductions increases metapopulation viability. The reintroduction that simulated population performance in early-successional habitats had the maximum benefit. In situ enhancements of existing populations proved to be equally effective. This study shows that restorations can facilitate and improve metapopulation viability of species dependent on metapopulation dynamics for survival with long-term persistence of C. pitcheri in Indiana likely to depend on continued active management.

  9. Towards more spatially explicit assessments of virtual water flows: linking local water use and scarcity to global demand of Brazilian farming commodities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flach, Rafaela; Ran, Ylva; Godar, Javier; Karlberg, Louise; Suavet, Clement

    2016-07-01

    Global consumption of farming commodities is an important driver of water demand in regions of production. This is the case in Brazil, which has emerged as one of the main producers of globally traded farming commodities. Traditional methods to assess environmental implications of this demand rely on international trade material flows at country resolution; we argue for the need of finer scales that capture spatial heterogeneity in environmental variables in the regions of production, and that account for differential sourcing within the borders of a country of production. To illustrate this, we obtain virtual water flows from Brazilian municipalities to countries of consumption, by allocating high-resolution water footprints of sugarcane and soy production to spatially-explicit material trade flows. We found that this approach results in differences of virtual water use estimations of over 20% when compared to approaches that disregard spatial heterogeneity in sourcing patterns, for three of the main consumers of the analysed crops. This discrepancy against methods using national resolution in trade flows is determined by national heterogeneity in water resources, and differential sourcing. To illustrate the practical implications of this approach, we relate virtual water flows to water stress, identifying where global demand for water coincides with high levels of water stress. For instance, the virtual water flows for Brazilian sugarcane sourced by China were disproportionally less associated to areas with higher water stress when compared to those of the EU, due to EU’s much higher reliance on sugarcane from water scarce areas in Northeast Brazil. Our findings indicate that the policy relevance of current assessments of virtual water flows that rely on trade data aggregated at the national level may be hampered, as they do not capture the spatial heterogeneity in water resources, water use and water management options.

  10. Modeling Agricultural Watersheds with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT): Calibration and Validation with a Novel Procedure for Spatially Explicit HRUs.

    PubMed

    Teshager, Awoke Dagnew; Gassman, Philip W; Secchi, Silvia; Schoof, Justin T; Misgna, Girmaye

    2016-04-01

    Applications of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model typically involve delineation of a watershed into subwatersheds/subbasins that are then further subdivided into hydrologic response units (HRUs) which are homogeneous areas of aggregated soil, landuse, and slope and are the smallest modeling units used within the model. In a given standard SWAT application, multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) in a subbasin are usually aggregated into a single HRU feature. In other words, the standard version of the model combines multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) with the same landuse/landcover, soil, and slope, but located at different places of a subbasin (spatially non-unique), and considers them as one HRU. In this study, ArcGIS pre-processing procedures were developed to spatially define a one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs (spatially unique HRUs) within a subbasin prior to SWAT simulations to facilitate input processing, input/output mapping, and further analysis at the individual farm field level. Model input data such as landuse/landcover (LULC), soil, crop rotation, and other management data were processed through these HRUs. The SWAT model was then calibrated/validated for Raccoon River watershed in Iowa for 2002-2010 and Big Creek River watershed in Illinois for 2000-2003. SWAT was able to replicate annual, monthly, and daily streamflow, as well as sediment, nitrate and mineral phosphorous within recommended accuracy in most cases. The one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs created and used in this study is a first step in performing LULC change, climate change impact, and other analyses in a more spatially explicit manner.

  11. Modeling Agricultural Watersheds with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT): Calibration and Validation with a Novel Procedure for Spatially Explicit HRUs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teshager, Awoke Dagnew; Gassman, Philip W.; Secchi, Silvia; Schoof, Justin T.; Misgna, Girmaye

    2016-04-01

    Applications of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model typically involve delineation of a watershed into subwatersheds/subbasins that are then further subdivided into hydrologic response units (HRUs) which are homogeneous areas of aggregated soil, landuse, and slope and are the smallest modeling units used within the model. In a given standard SWAT application, multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) in a subbasin are usually aggregated into a single HRU feature. In other words, the standard version of the model combines multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) with the same landuse/landcover, soil, and slope, but located at different places of a subbasin (spatially non-unique), and considers them as one HRU. In this study, ArcGIS pre-processing procedures were developed to spatially define a one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs (spatially unique HRUs) within a subbasin prior to SWAT simulations to facilitate input processing, input/output mapping, and further analysis at the individual farm field level. Model input data such as landuse/landcover (LULC), soil, crop rotation, and other management data were processed through these HRUs. The SWAT model was then calibrated/validated for Raccoon River watershed in Iowa for 2002-2010 and Big Creek River watershed in Illinois for 2000-2003. SWAT was able to replicate annual, monthly, and daily streamflow, as well as sediment, nitrate and mineral phosphorous within recommended accuracy in most cases. The one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs created and used in this study is a first step in performing LULC change, climate change impact, and other analyses in a more spatially explicit manner.

  12. Spatially explicit habitat models for 28 fishes from the Upper Mississippi River System (AHAG 2.0)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ickes, Brian S.; Sauer, J.S.; Richards, N.; Bowler, M.; Schlifer, B.

    2014-01-01

    perhaps why). Our goal was to develop regionalized models, and to assess and describe circumstances when a good fit was not possible. Seven fish species composed the Lentic guild. Good fits were achieved for six Upper Reach models. In the Lower Reach, no model produced good fits for the Lentic guild. This was due to (1) lentic species being much less prominent in the Lower Reach study areas, and (2) those that do express greater prominence principally do so only in the La Grange reach of the Illinois River. Thus, developing Lower Reach models for Lentic species will require parsing La Grange from the other two Lower Reach study areas and fitting separate models. We did not do that as part of this study, but it could be done at a later time. Nine species comprised the Lotic guild. Good fits were achieved for seven Upper Reach models and six Lower Reach models. Four species had good fits for both regions (flathead catfish, blue sucker, sauger, and shorthead redhorse). Three species showed zoogeographic zonation, with a good model fit in one of the regions, but not in the region in which they were absent or rarely occurred (blue catfish, rock bass, and skipjack herring). Twelve species comprised the Generalist guild. Good fits were achieved for five Upper Reach models and eight Lower Reach models. Six species had good fits for both regions (brook silverside, emerald shiner, freshwater drum, logperch, longnose gar, and white bass). Two species showed zoogeographic zonation, with a good model fit in one of the regions, but not in the region in which they were absent or rarely occurred (red shiner and blackstripe topminnow). Poorly fit models were almost always due to the diagnostic variable “field station,” a surrogate for river mile. In these circumstances, the residuals for “field station” were non-randomly distributed and often strongly ordered. This indicates either fitting “pool scale” models for these species and regions, or explicitly model covariances

  13. Observations of migrant exchange and mixing in a coral reef fish metapopulation link scales of marine population connectivity.

    PubMed

    Horne, John B; van Herwerden, Lynne; Abellana, Sheena; McIlwain, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Much progress has been made toward understanding marine metapopulation dynamics, largely because of multilocus microsatellite surveys able to connect related individuals within the metapopulation. However, most studies are focused on small spatial scales, tens of kilometers, while demographic exchange at larger spatial scales remains poorly documented. Additionally, many small-scale demographic studies conflict with broad-scale phylogeographic patterns concerning levels of marine population connectivity, highlighting a need for data on more intermediate scales. Here, we investigated demographic recruitment processes of a commercially important coral reef fish, the bluespine unicornfish (Naso unicornis) using a suite of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and microsatellite markers. Sampling for this study ranged across the southern Marianas Islands, a linear distance of 250 km and included 386 newly settled postlarval recruits. In contrast with other studies, we report that cohorts of recruits were genetically homogeneous in space and time, with no evidence of temporally stochastic sweepstakes reproduction. The genetic diversity of recruits was high and commensurate with that of the adult population. In addition, there is substantial evidence that 2 recruits, separated by 250 km, were full siblings. This is the largest direct observation of dispersal to date for a coral reef fish. All indications suggest that subpopulations of N. unicornis experience high levels of demographic migrant exchange and metapopulation mixing on a spatial scale of hundreds of kilometers, consistent with high levels of broad-scale genetic connectivity previously reported in this species.

  14. The Scaling of Human Contacts and Epidemic Processes in Metapopulation Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tizzoni, Michele; Sun, Kaiyuan; Benusiglio, Diego; Karsai, Márton; Perra, Nicola

    2015-10-01

    We study the dynamics of reaction-diffusion processes on heterogeneous metapopulation networks where interaction rates scale with subpopulation sizes. We first present new empirical evidence, based on the analysis of the interactions of 13 million users on Twitter, that supports the scaling of human interactions with population size with an exponent γ ranging between 1.11 and 1.21, as observed in recent studies based on mobile phone data. We then integrate such observations into a reaction- diffusion metapopulation framework. We provide an explicit analytical expression for the global invasion threshold which sets a critical value of the diffusion rate below which a contagion process is not able to spread to a macroscopic fraction of the system. In particular, we consider the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered epidemic model. Interestingly, the scaling of human contacts is found to facilitate the spreading dynamics. This behavior is enhanced by increasing heterogeneities in the mobility flows coupling the subpopulations. Our results show that the scaling properties of human interactions can significantly affect dynamical processes mediated by human contacts such as the spread of diseases, ideas and behaviors.

  15. Towards Anatomic Scale Agent-Based Modeling with a Massively Parallel Spatially Explicit General-Purpose Model of Enteric Tissue (SEGMEnT_HPC)

    PubMed Central

    Cockrell, Robert Chase; Christley, Scott; Chang, Eugene; An, Gary

    2015-01-01

    Perhaps the greatest challenge currently facing the biomedical research community is the ability to integrate highly detailed cellular and molecular mechanisms to represent clinical disease states as a pathway to engineer effective therapeutics. This is particularly evident in the representation of organ-level pathophysiology in terms of abnormal tissue structure, which, through histology, remains a mainstay in disease diagnosis and staging. As such, being able to generate anatomic scale simulations is a highly desirable goal. While computational limitations have previously constrained the size and scope of multi-scale computational models, advances in the capacity and availability of high-performance computing (HPC) resources have greatly expanded the ability of computational models of biological systems to achieve anatomic, clinically relevant scale. Diseases of the intestinal tract are exemplary examples of pathophysiological processes that manifest at multiple scales of spatial resolution, with structural abnormalities present at the microscopic, macroscopic and organ-levels. In this paper, we describe a novel, massively parallel computational model of the gut, the Spatially Explicitly General-purpose Model of Enteric Tissue_HPC (SEGMEnT_HPC), which extends an existing model of the gut epithelium, SEGMEnT, in order to create cell-for-cell anatomic scale simulations. We present an example implementation of SEGMEnT_HPC that simulates the pathogenesis of ileal pouchitis, and important clinical entity that affects patients following remedial surgery for ulcerative colitis. PMID:25806784

  16. An open and extensible framework for spatially explicit land use change modelling in R: the lulccR package (0.1.0)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moulds, S.; Buytaert, W.; Mijic, A.

    2015-04-01

    Land use change has important consequences for biodiversity and the sustainability of ecosystem services, as well as for global environmental change. Spatially explicit land use change models improve our understanding of the processes driving change and make predictions about the quantity and location of future and past change. Here we present the lulccR package, an object-oriented framework for land use change modelling written in the R programming language. The contribution of the work is to resolve the following limitations associated with the current land use change modelling paradigm: (1) the source code for model implementations is frequently unavailable, severely compromising the reproducibility of scientific results and making it impossible for members of the community to improve or adapt models for their own purposes; (2) ensemble experiments to capture model structural uncertainty are difficult because of fundamental differences between implementations of different models; (3) different aspects of the modelling procedure must be performed in different environments because existing applications usually only perform the spatial allocation of change. The package includes a stochastic ordered allocation procedure as well as an implementation of the widely used CLUE-S algorithm. We demonstrate its functionality by simulating land use change at the Plum Island Ecosystems site, using a dataset included with the package. It is envisaged that lulccR will enable future model development and comparison within an open environment.

  17. Achieving Durable Resistance Against Plant Diseases: Scenario Analyses with a National-Scale Spatially Explicit Model for a Wind-Dispersed Plant Pathogen.

    PubMed

    Elisabeth Lof, Marjolein; de Vallavieille-Pope, Claude; van der Werf, Wopke

    2017-03-13

    Genetic resistance in crops is a cornerstone of disease management in agriculture. Such genetic resistance is often rapidly broken due to selection for virulence in the pathogen population. Here, we ask whether there are strategies that can prolong the useful life of plant resistance genes. In a modeling study, we compared four deployment strategies: gene pyramiding, sequential use, simultaneous use, and a mixed strategy. We developed a spatially explicit model for France and parameterized it for the fungal pathogen Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici (causing wheat yellow rust) to test management strategies in a realistic spatial setting. We found that pyramiding two new resistance genes in one variety was the most durable solution only when the virulent genotype had to emerge by mutation. Deploying single-gene-resistant varieties concurrently with the pyramided variety eroded the durability of the gene pyramid. We found that continuation of deployment of varieties with broken-down resistance prolonged the useful life of simultaneous deployment of four single-gene-resistant varieties versus sequential use. However, when virulence was already present in the pathogen population, durability was low and none of the deployment strategies had effect. These results provide guidance on effective strategies for using resistance genes in crop protection practice.

  18. Evaluation of the Event Driven Phenology Model Coupled with the VegET Evapotranspiration Model Through Comparisons with Reference Datasets in a Spatially Explicit Manner

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kovalskyy, V.; Henebry, G. M.; Adusei, B.; Hansen, M.; Roy, D. P.; Senay, G.; Mocko, D. M.

    2011-01-01

    A new model coupling scheme with remote sensing data assimilation was developed for estimation of daily actual evapotranspiration (ET). The scheme represents a mix of the VegET, a physically based model to estimate ET from a water balance, and an event driven phenology model (EDPM), where the EDPM is an empirically derived crop specific model capable of producing seasonal trajectories of canopy attributes. In this experiment, the scheme was deployed in a spatially explicit manner within the croplands of the Northern Great Plains. The evaluation was carried out using 2007-2009 land surface forcing data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and crop maps derived from remotely sensed data of NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We compared the canopy parameters produced by the phenology model with normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data derived from the MODIS nadir bi-directional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) adjusted reflectance (NBAR) product. The expectations of the EDPM performance in prognostic mode were met, producing determination coefficient (r2) of 0.8 +/-.0.15. Model estimates of NDVI yielded root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.1 +/-.0.035 for the entire study area. Retrospective correction of canopy dynamics with MODIS NDVI brought the errors down to just below 10% of observed data range. The ET estimates produced by the coupled scheme were compared with ones from the MODIS land product suite. The expected r2=0.7 +/-.15 and RMSE = 11.2 +/-.4 mm per 8 days were met and even exceeded by the coupling scheme0 functioning in both prognostic and retrospective modes. Minor setbacks of the EDPM and VegET performance (r2 about 0.5 and additional 30 % of RMSR) were found on the peripheries of the study area and attributed to the insufficient EDPM training and to spatially varying accuracy of crop maps. Overall the experiment provided sufficient evidence of soundness and robustness of the EDPM and

  19. On the evolution of specialization with a mechanistic underpinning in structured metapopulations.

    PubMed

    Nurmi, Tuomas; Parvinen, Kalle

    2008-03-01

    We analyze the evolution of specialization in resource utilization in a discrete-time metapopulation model using the adaptive dynamics approach. The local dynamics in the metapopulation are based on the Beverton-Holt model with mechanistic underpinnings. The consumer faces a trade-off in the abilities to consume two resources that are spatially heterogeneously distributed to patches that are prone to local catastrophes. We explore the factors favoring the spread of generalist or specialist strategies. Increasing fecundity or decreasing catastrophe probability favors the spread of the generalist strategy and increasing environmental heterogeneity enlarges the parameter domain where the evolutionary branching is possible. When there are no catastrophes, increasing emigration diminishes the parameter domain where the evolutionary branching may occur. Otherwise, the effect of emigration on evolutionary dynamics is non-monotonous: both small and large values of emigration probability favor the spread of the specialist strategies whereas the parameter domain where evolutionary branching may occur is largest when the emigration probability has intermediate values. We compare how different forms of spatial heterogeneity and different models of local growth affect the evolutionary dynamics. We show that even small changes in the resource dynamics may have outstanding evolutionary effects to the consumers.

  20. A population estimate of chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) in the Ugalla region using standard and spatially explicit genetic capture-recapture methods.

    PubMed

    Moore, Deborah L; Vigilant, Linda

    2014-04-01

    Population parameters such as size, density, and distribution of a species across a landscape are important metrics that inform conservation science and are key to management strategies. In this study, we used genetic capture-recapture methods to estimate the population size and density of the little-studied chimpanzees in the Ugalla region of western Tanzania. From 237 fecal samples collected non-invasively over a 10-month period, we identified a minimum of 113 individuals. Based on the two-innate rate method (TIRM) modeled in the software capwire, we obtained a maximum-likelihood estimate of 322 (CI 227-373) individuals over the 624 km(2) area surveyed. Using a spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) method, we estimated a population density of 0.25 (CI 0.16-0.38) individuals/km(2) . Observations of nests and search effort data revealed areas of more intense usage. The findings of this study are an important step in the characterization of the Ugalla chimpanzees, and substantially improve our understanding of the number of chimpanzees that occupy this savanna-woodland region at the easternmost extent of the geographic range of this endangered subspecies.

  1. Environmental Distributions of Benzo[a]pyrene in China: Current and Future Emission Reduction Scenarios Explored Using a Spatially Explicit Multimedia Fate Model.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Ying; Tao, Shu; Price, Oliver R; Shen, Huizhong; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andrew J

    2015-12-01

    SESAMe v3.0, a spatially explicit multimedia fate model with 50 × 50 km(2) resolution, has been developed for China to predict environmental concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) using an atmospheric emission inventory for 2007. Model predictions are compared with environmental monitoring data obtained from an extensive review of the literature. The model performs well in predicting multimedia concentrations and distributions. Predicted concentrations are compared with guideline values; highest values with some exceedances occur mainly in the North China Plain, Mid Inner Mongolia, and parts of three northeast provinces, Xi'an, Shanghai, and south of Jiangsu province, East Sichuan Basin, middle of Guizhou and Guangzhou. Two potential future scenarios have been assessed using SESAMe v3.0 for 2030 as BaP emission is reduced by (1) technological improvement for coal consumption in energy production and industry sectors in Scenario 1 (Sc1) and (2) technological improvement and control of indoor biomass burning for cooking and indoor space heating and prohibition of open burning of biomass in 2030 in Scenario 2 (Sc2). Sc2 is more efficient in reducing the areas with exceedance of guideline values. Use of SESAMe v3.0 provides insights on future research needs and can inform decision making on options for source reduction.

  2. Climate change and the economics of biomass energy feedstocks in semi-arid agricultural landscapes: A spatially explicit real options analysis.

    PubMed

    Regan, Courtney M; Connor, Jeffery D; Raja Segaran, Ramesh; Meyer, Wayne S; Bryan, Brett A; Ostendorf, Bertram

    2017-05-01

    The economics of establishing perennial species as renewable energy feedstocks has been widely investigated as a climate change adapted diversification option for landholders, primarily using net present value (NPV) analysis. NPV does not account for key uncertainties likely to influence relevant landholder decision making. While real options analysis (ROA) is an alternative method that accounts for the uncertainty over future conditions and the large upfront irreversible investment involved in establishing perennials, there have been limited applications of ROA to evaluating land use change decision economics and even fewer applications considering climate change risks. Further, while the influence of spatially varying climate risk on biomass conversion economic has been widely evaluated using NPV methods, effects of spatial variability and climate on land use change have been scarcely assessed with ROA. In this study we applied a simulation-based ROA model to evaluate a landholder's decision to convert land from agriculture to biomass. This spatially explicit model considers price and yield risks under baseline climate and two climate change scenarios over a geographically diverse farming region. We found that underlying variability in primary productivity across the study area had a substantial effect on conversion thresholds required to trigger land use change when compared to results from NPV analysis. Areas traditionally thought of as being quite similar in average productive capacity can display large differences in response to the inclusion of production and price risks. The effects of climate change, broadly reduced returns required for land use change to biomass in low and medium rainfall zones and increased them in higher rainfall areas. Additionally, the risks posed by climate change can further exacerbate the tendency for NPV methods to underestimate true conversion thresholds. Our results show that even under severe drying and warming where crop yield

  3. Designing Optimal LNG Station Network for U.S. Heavy-Duty Freight Trucks using Temporally and Spatially Explicit Supply Chain Optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Allen

    The recent natural gas boom has opened much discussion about the potential of natural gas and specifically Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in the United States transportation sector. The switch from diesel to natural gas vehicles would reduce foreign dependence on oil, spur domestic economic growth, and potentially reduce greenhouse gas emissions. LNG provides the most potential for the medium to heavy-duty vehicle market partially due to unstable oil prices and stagnant natural gas prices. As long as the abundance of unconventional gas in the United States remains cheap, fuel switching to natural gas could provide significant cost savings for long haul freight industry. Amid a growing LNG station network and ever increasing demand for freight movement, LNG heavy-duty truck sales are less than anticipated and the industry as a whole is less economic than expected. In spite of much existing and mature natural gas infrastructure, the supply chain for LNG is different and requires explicit and careful planning. This thesis proposes research to explore the claim that the largest obstacle to widespread LNG market penetration is sub-optimal infrastructure planning. No other study we are aware of has explicitly explored the LNG transportation fuel supply chain for heavy-duty freight trucks. This thesis presents a novel methodology that links a network infrastructure optimization model (represents supply side) with a vehicle stock and economic payback model (represents demand side). The model characterizes both a temporal and spatial optimization model of future LNG transportation fuel supply chains in the United States. The principal research goal is to assess the economic feasibility of the current LNG transportation fuel industry and to determine an optimal pathway to achieve ubiquitous commercialization of LNG vehicles in the heavy-duty transport sector. The results indicate that LNG is not economic as a heavy-duty truck fuel until 2030 under current market conditions

  4. MONITORING DECLINING METAPOPULATIONS: INSIGHTS FROM A MODEL SIMULATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Pond-breeding amphibians, host-specialist butterflies, and a variety of other organisms have been shown to exhibit population structures and dynamics consistent with metapopulation theory. In recent years large-scale biodiversity monitoring efforts have been initiated in many reg...

  5. Fenced and Fragmented: Conservation Value of Managed Metapopulations.

    PubMed

    Miller, Susan M; Harper, Cindy K; Bloomer, Paulette; Hofmeyr, Jennifer; Funston, Paul J

    2015-01-01

    Population fragmentation is threatening biodiversity worldwide. Species that once roamed vast areas are increasingly being conserved in small, isolated areas. Modern management approaches must adapt to ensure the continued survival and conservation value of these populations. In South Africa, a managed metapopulation approach has been adopted for several large carnivore species, all protected in isolated, relatively small, reserves that are fenced. As far as possible these approaches are based on natural metapopulation structures. In this network, over the past 25 years, African lions (Panthera leo) were reintroduced into 44 fenced reserves with little attention given to maintaining genetic diversity. To examine the situation, we investigated the current genetic provenance and diversity of these lions. We found that overall genetic diversity was similar to that in a large national park, and included a mixture of four different southern African evolutionarily significant units (ESUs). This mixing of ESUs, while not ideal, provides a unique opportunity to study the impact of mixing ESUs over the long term. We propose a strategic managed metapopulation plan to ensure the maintenance of genetic diversity and improve the long-term conservation value of these lions. This managed metapopulation approach could be applied to other species under similar ecological constraints around the globe.

  6. Fenced and Fragmented: Conservation Value of Managed Metapopulations

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Susan M.; Harper, Cindy K.; Bloomer, Paulette; Hofmeyr, Jennifer; Funston, Paul J.

    2015-01-01

    Population fragmentation is threatening biodiversity worldwide. Species that once roamed vast areas are increasingly being conserved in small, isolated areas. Modern management approaches must adapt to ensure the continued survival and conservation value of these populations. In South Africa, a managed metapopulation approach has been adopted for several large carnivore species, all protected in isolated, relatively small, reserves that are fenced. As far as possible these approaches are based on natural metapopulation structures. In this network, over the past 25 years, African lions (Panthera leo) were reintroduced into 44 fenced reserves with little attention given to maintaining genetic diversity. To examine the situation, we investigated the current genetic provenance and diversity of these lions. We found that overall genetic diversity was similar to that in a large national park, and included a mixture of four different southern African evolutionarily significant units (ESUs). This mixing of ESUs, while not ideal, provides a unique opportunity to study the impact of mixing ESUs over the long term. We propose a strategic managed metapopulation plan to ensure the maintenance of genetic diversity and improve the long-term conservation value of these lions. This managed metapopulation approach could be applied to other species under similar ecological constraints around the globe. PMID:26699333

  7. The structure of reef fish metapopulations: modelling larval dispersal and retention patterns.

    PubMed Central

    James, Maurice K; Armsworth, Paul R; Mason, Luciano B; Bode, Lance

    2002-01-01

    An improved understanding of the dispersal patterns of marine organisms is a prerequisite for successful marine resource management. For species with dispersing larvae, regional-scale hydrodynamic models provide a means of obtaining results over relevant spatial and temporal scales. In an effort to better understand the role of the physical environment in dispersal, we simulated the transport of reef fish larvae among 321 reefs in and around the Cairns Section of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park over a period of 20 years. Based on regional-scale hydrodynamics, our models predict the spatial and temporal frequency of significant self-recruitment of the larvae of certain species. Furthermore, the results suggest the importance of a select few local populations in ensuring the persistence of reef fish metapopulations over regional scales. PMID:12396481

  8. The maintenance of genetic variation due to asymmetric gene flow in dendritic metapopulations.

    PubMed

    Morrissey, Michael B; de Kerckhove, Derrick T

    2009-12-01

    Dendritic landscapes can have ecological properties that differ importantly from simpler spatial arrangements of habitats. Most dendritic landscapes are structured by elevation, and therefore, migration is likely to be directionally biased. While the population-genetic consequences of both dendritic landscape arrangements and asymmetric migration have begun to be studied, these processes have not been considered together. Simple conceptual models predict that if migration into branch (headwater) populations is limited, such populations can act as reservoirs for potentially unique alleles. As a consequence of the fact that dendritic landscapes have, by definition, more branches than internal habitat patches, this process may lead to the maintenance of higher overall genetic diversities in metapopulations inhabiting dendritic networks where migration is directionally biased. Here we begin to address the generality of these simple predictions using genetic models and a review of empirical literature. We show, for a range of demographic parameters, that dendritic systems with asymmetric migration can maintain levels of genetic variation that are very different, sometimes very elevated, compared with more classical models of geographical population structure. Furthermore, predicted patterns of genetic variation within metapopulations--that is, stepwise increases in genetic diversity at nodes--do occur in some empirical data.

  9. Testing metapopulation concepts: effects of patch characteristics and neighborhood occupancy on the dynamics of an endangered lagomorph

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eaton, Mitchell J.; Hughes, Phillip T.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.

    2014-01-01

    Metapopulation ecology is a field that is richer in theory than in empirical results. Many existing empirical studies use an incidence function approach based on spatial patterns and key assumptions about extinction and colonization rates. Here we recast these assumptions as hypotheses to be tested using 18 years of historic detection survey data combined with four years of data from a new monitoring program for the Lower Keys marsh rabbit. We developed a new model to estimate probabilities of local extinction and colonization in the presence of nondetection, while accounting for estimated occupancy levels of neighboring patches. We used model selection to identify important drivers of population turnover and estimate the effective neighborhood size for this system. Several key relationships related to patch size and isolation that are often assumed in metapopulation models were supported: patch size was negatively related to the probability of extinction and positively related to colonization, and estimated occupancy of neighboring patches was positively related to colonization and negatively related to extinction probabilities. This latter relationship suggested the existence of rescue effects. In our study system, we inferred that coastal patches experienced higher probabilities of extinction and colonization than interior patches. Interior patches exhibited higher occupancy probabilities and may serve as refugia, permitting colonization of coastal patches following disturbances such as hurricanes and storm surges. Our modeling approach should be useful for incorporating neighbor occupancy into future metapopulation analyses and in dealing with other historic occupancy surveys that may not include the recommended levels of sampling replication.

  10. Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Staley, Dennis; Negri, Jacquelyn; Kean, Jason

    2016-04-01

    Population expansion into fire-prone steeplands has resulted in an increase in post-fire debris-flow risk in the western United States. Logistic regression methods for determining debris-flow likelihood and the calculation of empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation represent two common approaches for characterizing hazard and reducing risk. Logistic regression models are currently being used to rapidly assess debris-flow hazard in response to design storms of known intensities (e.g. a 10-year recurrence interval rainstorm). Empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds comprise a major component of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Weather Service (NWS) debris-flow early warning system at a regional scale in southern California. However, these two modeling approaches remain independent, with each approach having limitations that do not allow for synergistic local-scale (e.g. drainage-basin scale) characterization of debris-flow hazard during intense rainfall. The current logistic regression equations consider rainfall a unique independent variable, which prevents the direct calculation of the relation between rainfall intensity and debris-flow likelihood. Regional (e.g. mountain range or physiographic province scale) rainfall intensity-duration thresholds fail to provide insight into the basin-scale variability of post-fire debris-flow hazard and require an extensive database of historical debris-flow occurrence and rainfall characteristics. Here, we present a new approach that combines traditional logistic regression and intensity-duration threshold methodologies. This method allows for local characterization of both the likelihood that a debris-flow will occur at a given rainfall intensity, the direct calculation of the rainfall rates that will result in a given likelihood, and the ability to calculate spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently

  11. Spatially Explicit Modeling of Schistosomiasis Risk in Eastern China Based on a Synthesis of Epidemiological, Environmental and Intermediate Host Genetic Data

    PubMed Central

    Schrader, Matthias; Hauffe, Torsten; Zhang, Zhijie; Davis, George M.; Jopp, Fred; Remais, Justin V.; Wilke, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Schistosomiasis japonica is a major parasitic disease threatening millions of people in China. Though overall prevalence was greatly reduced during the second half of the past century, continued persistence in some areas and cases of re-emergence in others remain major concerns. As many regions in China are approaching disease elimination, obtaining quantitative data on Schistosoma japonicum parasites is increasingly difficult. This study examines the distribution of schistosomiasis in eastern China, taking advantage of the fact that the single intermediate host serves as a major transmission bottleneck. Epidemiological, population-genetic and high-resolution ecological data are combined to construct a predictive model capable of estimating the probability that schistosomiasis occurs in a target area (“spatially explicit schistosomiasis risk”). Results show that intermediate host genetic parameters are correlated with the distribution of endemic disease areas, and that five explanatory variables—altitude, minimum temperature, annual precipitation, genetic distance, and haplotype diversity—discriminate between endemic and non-endemic zones. Model predictions are correlated with human infection rates observed at the county level. Visualization of the model indicates that the highest risks of disease occur in the Dongting and Poyang lake regions, as expected, as well as in some floodplain areas of the Yangtze River. High risk areas are interconnected, suggesting the complex hydrological interplay of Dongting and Poyang lakes with the Yangtze River may be important for maintaining schistosomiasis in eastern China. Results demonstrate the value of genetic parameters for risk modeling, and particularly for reducing model prediction error. The findings have important consequences both for understanding the determinants of the current distribution of S. japonicum infections, and for designing future schistosomiasis surveillance and control strategies. The results

  12. Investigation of inflammation and tissue patterning in the gut using a Spatially Explicit General-purpose Model of Enteric Tissue (SEGMEnT).

    PubMed

    Cockrell, Chase; Christley, Scott; An, Gary

    2014-03-01

    The mucosa of the intestinal tract represents a finely tuned system where tissue structure strongly influences, and is turn influenced by, its function as both an absorptive surface and a defensive barrier. Mucosal architecture and histology plays a key role in the diagnosis, characterization and pathophysiology of a host of gastrointestinal diseases. Inflammation is a significant factor in the pathogenesis in many gastrointestinal diseases, and is perhaps the most clinically significant control factor governing the maintenance of the mucosal architecture by morphogenic pathways. We propose that appropriate characterization of the role of inflammation as a controller of enteric mucosal tissue patterning requires understanding the underlying cellular and molecular dynamics that determine the epithelial crypt-villus architecture across a range of conditions from health to disease. Towards this end we have developed the Spatially Explicit General-purpose Model of Enteric Tissue (SEGMEnT) to dynamically represent existing knowledge of the behavior of enteric epithelial tissue as influenced by inflammation with the ability to generate a variety of pathophysiological processes within a common platform and from a common knowledge base. In addition to reproducing healthy ileal mucosal dynamics as well as a series of morphogen knock-out/inhibition experiments, SEGMEnT provides insight into a range of clinically relevant cellular-molecular mechanisms, such as a putative role for Phosphotase and tensin homolog/phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PTEN/PI3K) as a key point of crosstalk between inflammation and morphogenesis, the protective role of enterocyte sloughing in enteric ischemia-reperfusion and chronic low level inflammation as a driver for colonic metaplasia. These results suggest that SEGMEnT can serve as an integrating platform for the study of inflammation in gastrointestinal disease.

  13. On the Use of an Explicit Microphysical Model to Investigate the Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Rainfall Microphysics in Different Storm Environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, A.; Barros, A. P.

    2012-12-01

    Two Micro Rain Radars (MRRs) were deployed in the Southern Appalachians during the summer and fall seasons of 2012, in ridge and valley locations in the French Broad River Basin. The radars were collocated with Hydrological Services tipping bucket rain gauges at 0.1 mm resolution, Vaisala automated weather stations and Parsivel optical disdrometers. This study augments others conducted in previous years during the months May - September in ridge and valley locations in the Pigeon River Basin, and ridge-ridge studies across both basins. Observations from the vertically pointing radar are used to provide boundary conditions for an explicit raindrop population dynamics model, which solves the stochastic collection-breakup equation, in order to model the evolution of microphysical properties (drop size distribution, rain intensity and hydrometeor type) through time and space and gain insight into the processes (autoconversion, overarching synoptic conditions, terrain contributions) that drive this evolution. Surface observations from the disdrometers and rain gauges are used to investigate the model results. Observations from a spatially dense, high elevation rain gauge network are also used to further define storm structure. Results show significant variability in precipitation intensities and accumulations along the ridge line as well as suggest the localized importance of persistent fog interacting with low level cloud to intensify or trigger precipitation events that are often experienced only at high elevations and contribute significantly to the yearly water budget of the region. A period of cross calibration with both MRRs, Parsivel disdrometer models 1 and 2, automated weather stations and tipping bucket rain gauges (during May/early June 2012) is used to examine questions of uncertainty with regard to measurement scale. Last, the results from using this model at other locations during ground validation campaigns (TWP-ICE, MC3E) are compared with the findings

  14. Spatially-explicit estimates of greenhouse-gas payback times for perennial cellulosic biomass production on open lands in the Lake States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sahajpal, R.

    2015-12-01

    The development of renewable energy sources is an integral step towards mitigating the carbon dioxide induced component of climate change. One important renewable source is plant biomass, comprising both food crops such as corn (Zea mays) and cellulosic biomass from short-rotation woody crops (SRWC) such as hybrid-poplar (Populus spp.) and Willow (Salix spp.). Due to their market acceptability and excellent energy balance, cellulosic feedstocks represent an abundant and if managed properly, a carbon-neutral and environmentally beneficial resource. We evaluate how site variability impacts the greenhouse-gas (GHG) benefits of SRWC plantations on lands potentially suited for bioenergy feedstock production in the Lake States (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan). We combine high-resolution, spatially-explicit estimates of biomass, soil organic carbon and nitrous oxide emissions for SRWC plantations from the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model along with life cycle analysis results from the GREET model to determine the greenhouse-gas payback time (GPBT) or the time needed before the GHG savings due to displacement of fossil fuels exceeds the initial losses from plantation establishment. We calibrate our models using unique yield and N2O emission data from sites across the Lake states that have been converted from pasture and hayfields to SRWC plantations. Our results show a reduction of 800,000 ha in non-agricultural open land availability for biomass production, a loss of nearly 37% (see attached figure). Overall, GPBTs range between 1 and 38 years, with the longest GPBTs occurring in the northern Lake states. Initial soil nitrate levels and site drainage potential explain more than half of the variation in GPBTs. Our results indicate a rapidly closing window of opportunity to establish a sustainable cellulosic feedstock economy in the Lake States.

  15. METAPOPULATION STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS OF POND BREEDING

    EPA Science Inventory

    Our review indicates that pond breeding amphibians exhibit highly variable spatial and temporal population dynamics, such that no single generalized model can realistically describe these animals. We propose that consideration of breeding pond permanence, and adaptations to pond ...

  16. Local competition and metapopulation processes drive long-term seagrass-epiphyte population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Lobelle, Delphine; Kenyon, Emma J; Cook, Kevan J; Bull, James C

    2013-01-01

    It is well known that ecological processes such as population regulation and natural enemy interactions potentially occur over a range of spatial scales, and there is a substantial body of literature developing theoretical understanding of the interplay between these processes. However, there are comparatively few studies quantifying the long-term effects of spatial scaling in natural ecosystems. A key challenge is that trophic complexity in real-world biological communities quickly obscures the signal from a focal process. Seagrass meadows provide an excellent opportunity in this respect: in many instances, seagrasses effectively form extensive natural monocultures, in which hypotheses about endogenous dynamics can be formulated and tested. We present amongst the longest unbroken, spatially explict time series of seagrass abundance published to date. Data include annual measures of shoot density, total above-ground abundance, and associated epiphyte cover from five Zostera marina meadows distributed around the Isles of Scilly, UK, from 1996 to 2011. We explore empirical patterns at the local and metapopulation scale using standard time series analysis and develop a simple population dynamic model, testing the hypothesis that both local and metapopulation scale feedback processes are important. We find little evidence of an interaction between scales in seagrass dynamics but that both scales contribute approximately equally to observed local epiphyte abundance. By quantifying the long-term dynamics of seagrass-epiphyte interactions we show how measures of density and extent are both important in establishing baseline information relevant to predicting responses to environmental change and developing management plans. We hope that this study complements existing mechanistic studies of physiology, genetics and productivity in seagrass, whilst highlighting the potential of seagrass as a model ecosystem. More generally, this study provides a rare opportunity to test

  17. The effect of metapopulation dynamics on the survival and spread of a novel, conspicuous prey.

    PubMed

    Lee, Thomas J; Speed, Michael P

    2010-12-07

    Animals that deploy chemical defences against predators often signal their unprofitability using bright colouration. This pairing of toxicity and conspicuous patterning is known as aposematism. Explaining the evolution and spread of aposematic traits in previously cryptic species has been the focus of much empirical and theoretical work over the last two decades. Existing research concerning the initial evolution of aposematism does not however properly consider that many aposematic species (such as members of the hymenoptera, the lepidoptera, and amphibia) are highly mobile. We argue in this paper that the evolution of aposematic displays is therefore often best understood within a metapopulation framework; hence in this paper we present the first explicit metapopulation model of the evolution of aposematism. Our most general finding is that migration tends to reduce the probability that an aposematic prey can increase from rarity and spread across a large population. Hence, the best case scenarios for the spread of aposematism required fixation of the aposematic form in one or more isolated sub-habitats prior to some event which subsequently enabled migration. We observed that changes in frequency of new aposematic forms within source habitats are likely to be nonmonotonic. First, aposematic prey tend to decline in frequency as they migrate outwards from the source habitat to neighbouring sink habitats, but subsequently they increase in relative abundance in the source, as the descendents of earlier migrants migrate back from newly converted sub-populations. This pattern of initial loss and subsequent gain between new source and neighbouring sink habitats is then repeated as the aposematic form spreads via a moving cline.

  18. Safety-Information-Driven Human Mobility Patterns with Metapopulation Epidemic Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Bing; Cao, Lang; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2012-01-01

    With the help of mass media, people receive information concerning the status of an infectious disease to guide their mobility. Herein, we develop a theoretical framework to investigate the safety-information-driven human mobility with metapopulation epidemic dynamics. Individuals respond to the safety information of a city by taking safe moves (passing cities with a more number of healthy individuals) or unsafe moves (passing cities with a less number of healthy individuals). Our findings show that the critical threshold depends on mobility in such a way that personal execution of safe moves unexpectedly promotes the global spread of a disease, while unsafe moves counterintuitively cause a locally, relatively small outbreak size. Our analysis underlines the role of safety consideration in the spatial spread of an infectious disease with clear implications for the model of mobility driven by individuals' benefit. PMID:23189237

  19. Safety-Information-Driven Human Mobility Patterns with Metapopulation Epidemic Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Bing; Cao, Lang; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2012-11-01

    With the help of mass media, people receive information concerning the status of an infectious disease to guide their mobility. Herein, we develop a theoretical framework to investigate the safety-information-driven human mobility with metapopulation epidemic dynamics. Individuals respond to the safety information of a city by taking safe moves (passing cities with a more number of healthy individuals) or unsafe moves (passing cities with a less number of healthy individuals). Our findings show that the critical threshold depends on mobility in such a way that personal execution of safe moves unexpectedly promotes the global spread of a disease, while unsafe moves counterintuitively cause a locally, relatively small outbreak size. Our analysis underlines the role of safety consideration in the spatial spread of an infectious disease with clear implications for the model of mobility driven by individuals' benefit.

  20. Quantifying the importance of patch-specific changes in habitat to metapopulation viability of an endangered songbird.

    PubMed

    Horne, Jon S; Strickler, Katherine M; Alldredge, Mathew

    2011-10-01

    A growing number of programs seek to facilitate species conservation using incentive-based mechanisms. Recently, a market-based incentive program for the federally endangered Golden-cheeked Warbler (Dendroica chrysoparia) was implemented on a trial basis at Fort Hood, an Army training post in Texas, USA. Under this program, recovery credits accumulated by Fort Hood through contracts with private landowners are used to offset unintentional loss of breeding habitat of Golden-cheeked Warblers within the installation. Critical to successful implementation of such programs is the ability to value, in terms of changes to overall species viability, both habitat loss and habitat restoration or protection. In this study, we sought to answer two fundamental questions: Given the same amount of change in breeding habitat, does the change in some patches have a greater effect on metapopulation persistence than others? And if so, can characteristics of a patch (e.g., size or spatial location) be used to predict how the metapopulation will respond to these changes? To answer these questions, we describe an approach for using sensitivity analysis of a metapopulation projection model to predict how changes to specific habitat patches would affect species viability. We used a stochastic, discrete-time projection model based on stage-specific estimates of survival and fecundity, as well as various assumptions about dispersal among populations. To assess a particular patch's leverage, we quantified how much metapopulation viability was expected to change in response to changing the size of that patch. We then related original patch size and distance from the largest patch to each patch's leverage to determine if general patch characteristics could be used to develop guidelines for valuing changes to patches within a metapopulation. We found that both the characteristic that best predicted patch leverage and the magnitude of the relationship changed under different model scenarios

  1. Connectivity dominates larval replenishment in a coastal reef fish metapopulation.

    PubMed

    Saenz-Agudelo, Pablo; Jones, Geoffrey P; Thorrold, Simon R; Planes, Serge

    2011-10-07

    Direct estimates of larval retention and connectivity are essential to understand the structure and dynamics of marine metapopulations, and optimize the size and spacing of reserves within networks of marine-protected areas (MPAs). For coral reef fishes, while there are some empirical estimates of self-recruitment at isolated populations, exchange among sub-populations has been rarely quantified. Here, we used microsatellite DNA markers and a likelihood-based parentage analysis to assess the relative magnitude of self-recruitment and exchange among eight geographically distinct sub-populations of the panda clownfish Amphiprion polymnus along 30 km of coastline near Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. In addition, we used an assignment/exclusion test to identify immigrants arriving from genetically distinct sources. Overall, 82 per cent of the juveniles were immigrants while 18 per cent were progeny of parents genotyped in our focal metapopulation. Of the immigrants, only 6 per cent were likely to be genetically distinct from the focal metapopulation, suggesting most of the connectivity is among sub-populations from a rather homogeneous genetic pool. Of the 18 per cent that were progeny of known adults, two-thirds dispersed among the eight sub-populations and only one-third settled back into natal sub-populations. Comparison of our data with previous studies suggested that variation in dispersal distances is likely to be influenced by the geographical setting and spacing of sub-populations.

  2. Positive correlation between genetic diversity and fitness in a large, well-connected metapopulation

    PubMed Central

    Vandewoestijne, Sofie; Schtickzelle, Nicolas; Baguette, Michel

    2008-01-01

    Background Theory predicts that lower dispersal, and associated gene flow, leads to decreased genetic diversity in small isolated populations, which generates adverse consequences for fitness, and subsequently for demography. Here we report for the first time this effect in a well-connected natural butterfly metapopulation with high population densities at the edge of its distribution range. Results We demonstrate that: (1) lower genetic diversity was coupled to a sharp decrease in adult lifetime expectancy, a key component of individual fitness; (2) genetic diversity was positively correlated to the number of dispersing individuals (indicative of landscape functional connectivity) and adult population size; (3) parameters inferred from capture-recapture procedures (population size and dispersal events between patches) correlated much better with genetic diversity than estimates usually used as surrogates for population size (patch area and descriptors of habitat quality) and dispersal (structural connectivity index). Conclusion Our results suggest that dispersal is a very important factor maintaining genetic diversity. Even at a very local spatial scale in a metapopulation consisting of large high-density populations interconnected by considerable dispersal rates, genetic diversity can be decreased and directly affect the fitness of individuals. From a biodiversity conservation perspective, this study clearly shows the benefits of both in-depth demographic and genetic analyses. Accordingly, to ensure the long-term survival of populations, conservation actions should not be blindly based on patch area and structural isolation. This result may be especially pertinent for species at their range margins, particularly in this era of rapid environmental change. PMID:18986515

  3. Joint evolution of specialization and dispersal in structured metapopulations.

    PubMed

    Nurmi, Tuomas; Parvinen, Kalle

    2011-04-21

    We study the joint evolution of dispersal and specialization concerning resource usage in a mechanistically underpinned structured discrete-time metapopulation model. We show that dispersal significantly affects the evolution of specialization and that specialization is a key factor that determines the possibility of evolutionary branching in dispersal propensity. Allowing both dispersal propensity and specialization to evolve as a consequence of natural selection is necessary in order to understand the evolutionary dynamics. The joint evolution of dispersal and specialization forms a natural evolutionary path leading to the coexistence of generalists and specialists. We show that in this process, the number of different patch types and the resource distribution are essential.

  4. Local and Regional Determinants of Colonisation-Extinction Dynamics of a Riparian Mainland-Island Root Vole Metapopulation

    PubMed Central

    Glorvigen, Petter; Andreassen, Harry P.; Ims, Rolf A.

    2013-01-01

    The role of local habitat geometry (habitat area and isolation) in predicting species distribution has become an increasingly more important issue, because habitat loss and fragmentation cause species range contraction and extinction. However, it has also become clear that other factors, in particular regional factors (environmental stochasticity and regional population dynamics), should be taken into account when predicting colonisation and extinction. In a live trapping study of a mainland-island metapopulation of the root vole (Microtus oeconomus) we found extensive occupancy dynamics across 15 riparian islands, but yet an overall balance between colonisation and extinction over 4 years. The 54 live trapping surveys conducted over 13 seasons revealed imperfect detection and proxies of population density had to be included in robust design, multi-season occupancy models to achieve unbiased rate estimates. Island colonisation probability was parsimoniously predicted by the multi-annual density fluctuations of the regional mainland population and local island habitat quality, while extinction probability was predicted by island population density and the level of the recent flooding events (the latter being the main regionalized disturbance regime in the study system). Island size and isolation had no additional predictive power and thus such local geometric habitat characteristics may be overrated as predictors of vole habitat occupancy relative to measures of local habitat quality. Our results suggest also that dynamic features of the larger region and/or the metapopulation as a whole, owing to spatially correlated environmental stochasticity and/or biotic interactions, may rule the colonisation – extinction dynamics of boreal vole metapopulations. Due to high capacities for dispersal and habitat tracking voles originating from large source populations can rapidly colonise remote and small high quality habitat patches and re-establish populations that have gone

  5. Emergence of metapopulations and echo chambers in mobile agents

    PubMed Central

    Starnini, Michele; Frasca, Mattia; Baronchelli, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    Multi-agent models often describe populations segregated either in the physical space, i.e. subdivided in metapopulations, or in the ecology of opinions, i.e. partitioned in echo chambers. Here we show how both kinds of segregation can emerge from the interplay between homophily and social influence in a simple model of mobile agents endowed with a continuous opinion variable. In the model, physical proximity determines a progressive convergence of opinions but differing opinions result in agents moving away from each others. This feedback between mobility and social dynamics determines the onset of a stable dynamical metapopulation scenario where physically separated groups of like-minded individuals interact with each other through the exchange of agents. The further introduction of confirmation bias in social interactions, defined as the tendency of an individual to favor opinions that match his own, leads to the emergence of echo chambers where different opinions coexist also within the same group. We believe that the model may be of interest to researchers investigating the origin of segregation in the offline and online world. PMID:27572928

  6. Emergence of metapopulations and echo chambers in mobile agents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Starnini, Michele; Frasca, Mattia; Baronchelli, Andrea

    2016-08-01

    Multi-agent models often describe populations segregated either in the physical space, i.e. subdivided in metapopulations, or in the ecology of opinions, i.e. partitioned in echo chambers. Here we show how both kinds of segregation can emerge from the interplay between homophily and social influence in a simple model of mobile agents endowed with a continuous opinion variable. In the model, physical proximity determines a progressive convergence of opinions but differing opinions result in agents moving away from each others. This feedback between mobility and social dynamics determines the onset of a stable dynamical metapopulation scenario where physically separated groups of like-minded individuals interact with each other through the exchange of agents. The further introduction of confirmation bias in social interactions, defined as the tendency of an individual to favor opinions that match his own, leads to the emergence of echo chambers where different opinions coexist also within the same group. We believe that the model may be of interest to researchers investigating the origin of segregation in the offline and online world.

  7. Genetic assessment of a summer chum salmon metapopulation in recovery.

    PubMed

    Small, Maureen P; Johnson, Thom H; Bowman, Cherril; Martinez, Edith

    2014-02-01

    Programs to rebuild imperiled wild fish populations often include hatchery-born fish derived from wild populations to supplement natural spawner abundance. These programs require monitoring to determine their demographic, biological, and genetic effects. In 1990s in Washington State, the Summer Chum Salmon Conservation Initiative developed a recovery program for the threatened Hood Canal summer chum salmon Evolutionarily Significant Unit (ESU) (the metapopulation) that used in-river spawners (wild fish) for each respective supplementation broodstock in six tributaries. Returning spawners (wild-born and hatchery-born) composed subsequent broodstocks, and tributary-specific supplementation was limited to three generations. We assessed impacts of the programs on neutral genetic diversity in this metapopulation using 16 microsatellite loci and a thirty-year dataset spanning before and after supplementation, roughly eight generations. Following supplementation, differentiation among subpopulations decreased (but not significantly) and isolation by distance patterns remained unchanged. There was no decline in genetic diversity in wild-born fish, but hatchery-born fish sampled in the same spawning areas had significantly lower genetic diversity and unequal family representation. Despite potential for negative effects from supplementation programs, few were detected in wild-born fish. We hypothesize that chum salmon natural history makes them less vulnerable to negative impacts from hatchery supplementation.

  8. Long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia): survey methods, data management, and long-term population trends

    PubMed Central

    Ojanen, Sami P; Nieminen, Marko; Meyke, Evgeniy; Pöyry, Juha; Hanski, Ilkka

    2013-01-01

    Long-term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long-term viability of species, but large-scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long-term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long-term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year-to-year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large-scale and long-term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long-term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long-term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life-history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long-term observational study has stimulated the

  9. Unrestricted migration favours virulent pathogens in experimental metapopulations: evolutionary genetics of a rapacious life history.

    PubMed

    Eshelman, Christal M; Vouk, Roxanne; Stewart, Jodi L; Halsne, Elizabeth; Lindsey, Haley A; Schneider, Stacy; Gualu, Miliyard; Dean, Antony M; Kerr, Benjamin

    2010-08-27

    Understanding pathogen infectivity and virulence requires combining insights from epidemiology, ecology, evolution and genetics. Although theoretical work in these fields has identified population structure as important for pathogen life-history evolution, experimental tests are scarce. Here, we explore the impact of population structure on life-history evolution in phage T4, a viral pathogen of Escherichia coli. The host-pathogen system is propagated as a metapopulation in which migration between subpopulations is either spatially restricted or unrestricted. Restricted migration favours pathogens with low infectivity and low virulence. Unrestricted migration favours pathogens that enter and exit their hosts quickly, although they are less productive owing to rapid extirpation of the host population. The rise of such 'rapacious' phage produces a 'tragedy of the commons', in which better competitors lower productivity. We have now identified a genetic basis for a rapacious life history. Mutations at a single locus (rI) cause increased virulence and are sufficient to account for a negative relationship between phage competitive ability and productivity. A higher frequency of rI mutants under unrestricted migration signifies the evolution of rapaciousness in this treatment. Conversely, spatially restricted migration favours a more 'prudent' pathogen strategy, in which the tragedy of the commons is averted. As our results illustrate, profound epidemiological and ecological consequences of life-history evolution in a pathogen can have a simple genetic cause.

  10. Zoos through the lens of the IUCN Red List: a global metapopulation approach to support conservation breeding programs.

    PubMed

    Conde, Dalia A; Colchero, Fernando; Gusset, Markus; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Byers, Onnie; Flesness, Nate; Browne, Robert K; Jones, Owen R

    2013-01-01

    Given current extinction trends, the number of species requiring conservation breeding programs (CBPs) is likely to increase dramatically. To inform CBP policies for threatened terrestrial vertebrates, we evaluated the number and representation of threatened vertebrate species on the IUCN Red List held in the ISIS zoo network and estimated the complexity of their management as metapopulations. Our results show that 695 of the 3,955 (23%) terrestrial vertebrate species in ISIS zoos are threatened. Only two of the 59 taxonomic orders show a higher proportion of threatened species in ISIS zoos than would be expected if species were selected at random. In addition, for most taxa, the management of a zoo metapopulation of more than 250 individuals will require the coordination of a cluster of 11 to 24 ISIS zoos within a radius of 2,000 km. Thus, in the zoo network, the representation of species that may require CBPs is currently low and the spatial distribution of these zoo populations makes management difficult. Although the zoo community may have the will and the logistical potential to contribute to conservation actions, including CBPs, to do so will require greater collaboration between zoos and other institutions, alongside the development of international agreements that facilitate cross-border movement of zoo animals. To maximize the effectiveness of integrated conservation actions that include CBPs, it is fundamental that the non-zoo conservation community acknowledges and integrates the expertise and facilities of zoos where it can be helpful.

  11. Genetic differentiation of neutral markers and quantitative traits in predominantly selfing metapopulations: confronting theory and experiments with Arabidopsis thaliana.

    PubMed

    Porcher, Emmanuelle; Giraud, Tatiana; Lavigne, Claire

    2006-02-01

    The comparison of the genetic differentiation of quantitative traits (QST) and molecular markers (FST) can inform on the strength and spatial heterogeneity of selection in natural populations, provided that markers behave neutrally. However, selection may influence the behaviour of markers in selfing species with strong linkage disequilibria among loci, therefore invalidating this test of detection of selection. We address this issue by monitoring the genetic differentiation of five microsatellite loci (FST) and nine quantitative traits (QST) in experimental metapopulations of the predominantly selfing species Arabidopsis thaliana, that evolved during eight generations. Metapopulations differed with respect to population size and selection heterogeneity. In large populations, the genetic differentiation of neutral microsatellites was much larger under heterogeneous selection than under uniform selection. Using simulations, we show that this influence of selection heterogeneity on FST can be attributable to initial linkage disequilibria among loci, creating stronger genetic differentiation of QTL than expected under a simple additive model with no initial linkage. We found no significant differences between FST and QST regardless of selection heterogeneity, despite a demonstrated effect of selection on QST values. Additional data are required to validate the role of mating system and linkage disequilibria in the joint evolution of neutral and selected genetic differentiation, but our results suggest that FST/QST comparisons can be conservative tests to detect selection in selfing species.

  12. SPATIAL SCALE OF AUTOCORRELATION IN WISCONSIN FROG AND TOAD SURVEY DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The degree to which local population dynamics are correlated with nearby sites has important implications for metapopulation dynamics and landscape management. Spatially extensive monitoring data can be used to evaluate large-scale population dynamic processes. Our goals in this ...

  13. Modelling ecological complexity for marine species conservation: the effect of variable connectivity on species spatial distribution and age-structure.

    PubMed

    Guizien, Katell; Bramanti, Lorenzo

    2014-01-01

    Connectivity is currently emphasized as a key factor in conservation for its role in enhancing biodiversity of an area and giving benefit to the adjacent areas. For most marine species, connectivity is synonomous of larval dispersal. We applied a spatially explicit meta-population model to test the hypothesis that larval dispersal can affect local demographical features, consequently misleading conservation practice in the marine environment. Simulations were carried out in the Gulf of Lions where coastal circulation displays highly variable temporal and spatial submeso-scale structures. Two different benthic invertebrate species were considered: a soft bottom short lived species and a hard bottom long lived one. In the first case, simulations showed that highest densities at equilibrium do not inform on self-persistent populations location. In the second case, simulations showed that connectivity effects may result in out-of-equilibria demographical structure. We emphasized the caveats in the parameterization of demographical models when local demography is controlled by connectivity.

  14. Individual identity and movement networks for disease metapopulations.

    PubMed

    Keeling, Matt J; Danon, Leon; Vernon, Matthew C; House, Thomas A

    2010-05-11

    The theory of networks has had a huge impact in both the physical and life sciences, shaping our understanding of the interaction between multiple elements in complex systems. In particular, networks have been extensively used in predicting the spread of infectious diseases where individuals, or populations of individuals, interact with a limited set of others-defining the network through which the disease can spread. Here for such disease models we consider three assumptions for capturing the network of movements between populations, and focus on two applied problems supported by detailed data from Great Britain: the commuter movement of workers between local areas (wards) and the permanent movement of cattle between farms. For such metapopulation networks, we show that the identity of individuals responsible for making network connections can have a significant impact on the infection dynamics, with clear implications for detailed public health and veterinary applications.

  15. Spatially explicit models of dynamic histories: examination of the genetic consequences of Pleistocene glaciation and recent climate change on the American Pika.

    PubMed

    Brown, Jason L; Knowles, L Lacey

    2012-08-01

    A central goal of phylogeography is to identify and characterize the processes underlying divergence. One of the biggest impediments currently faced is how to capture the spatiotemporal dynamic under which a species evolved. Here, we described an approach that couples species distribution models (SDMs), demographic and genetic models in a spatiotemporally explicit manner. Analyses of American Pika (Ochotona princeps) from the sky islands of the central Rocky Mountains of North America are used to provide insights into key questions about integrative approaches in landscape genetics, population genetics and phylogeography. This includes (i) general issues surrounding the conversion of time-specific SDMs into simple continuous, dynamic landscapes from past to current, (ii) the utility of SDMs to inform demographic models with deme-specific carrying capacities and migration potentials as well as (iii) the contribution of the temporal dynamic of colonization history in shaping genetic patterns of contemporary populations. Our results support that the inclusion of a spatiotemporal dynamic is an important factor when studying the impact of distributional shifts on patterns of genetic data. Our results also demonstrate the utility of SDMs to generate species-specific predictions about patterns of genetic variation that account for varying degrees of habitat specialization and life history characteristics of taxa. Nevertheless, the results highlight some key issues when converting SDMs for use in demographic models. Because the transformations have direct effects on the genetic consequence of population expansion by prescribing how habitat heterogeneity and spatiotemporal variation is related to the species-specific demographic model, it is important to consider alternative transformations when studying the genetic consequences of distributional shifts.

  16. A spatially explicit assessment of current and future hotspots of hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Junguo; Fritz, Steffen; van Wesenbeeck, C. F. A.; Fuchs, Michael; You, Liangzhi; Obersteiner, Michael; Yang, Hong

    2008-12-01

    Hunger knows no boundaries or borders. While much research has focused on undernutrition on a national scale, this report evaluates it at subnational levels for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to pinpoint hotspots where the greatest challenges exist. Undernutrition is assessed with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes by investigating anthropometric data on weight and length of individuals. The impact of climate change on production of six major crops (cassava, maize, wheat, sorghum, rice and millet) is analyzed with a GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (GEPIC) model with the same spatial resolution. Future hotspots of hunger are projected in the context of the anticipated climate, social, economic, and bio-physical changes. The results show that some regions in northern and southwestern Nigeria, Sudan and Angola with a currently high number of people with undernutrition might be able to improve their food security situation mainly through increasing purchasing power. In the near future, regions located in Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, southwestern Niger, and Madagascar are likely to remain hotspots of food insecurity, while regions located in Tanzania, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo might face more serious undernutrition. It is likely that both the groups of regions will suffer from lower capacity of importing food as well as lower per capita calorie availability, while the latter group will probably have sharper reduction in per capita calorie availability. Special attention must be paid to the hotspot areas in order to meet the hunger alleviation goals in SSA.

  17. Sulfolobus islandicus meta-populations in Yellowstone National Park hot springs.

    PubMed

    Campbell, Kate M; Kouris, Angela; England, Whitney; Anderson, Rika E; McCleskey, R Blaine; Nordstrom, D Kirk; Whitaker, Rachel J

    2017-03-09

    Abiotic and biotic forces shape the structure and evolution of microbial populations. We investigated forces that shape the spatial and temporal population structure of Sulfolobus islandicus by comparing geochemical and molecular analysis from seven hot springs in five regions sampled over three years in Yellowstone National Park. Through deep amplicon sequencing, we uncovered 148 unique alleles at two loci whose relative frequency provides clear evidence for independent populations in different hot springs. Although geography controls regional geochemical composition and population differentiation, temporal changes in population were not explained by corresponding variation in geochemistry. The data suggest that the influence of extinction, bottleneck events, and/or selective sweeps within a spring and low migration between springs shape these populations. We suggest that hydrologic events such as storm events and surface snowmelt runoff destabilize smaller hot spring environments with smaller populations and result in high variation in the S. islandicus population over time. Therefore, physical abiotic features such as hot spring size and position in the landscape are important factors shaping the stability and diversity of the S. islandicus meta-population within Yellowstone National Park. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  18. Metapopulation Dynamics Enable Persistence of Influenza A, Including A/H5N1, in Poultry

    PubMed Central

    Hosseini, Parviez Rana; Fuller, Trevon; Harrigan, Ryan; Zhao, Delong; Arriola, Carmen Sofia; Gonzalez, Armandoe; Miller, Matthew Joshua; Xiao, Xiangming; Smith, Tom B.; Jones, Jamie Holland; Daszak, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Highly pathogenic influenza A/H5N1 has persistently but sporadically caused human illness and death since 1997. Yet it is still unclear how this pathogen is able to persist globally. While wild birds seem to be a genetic reservoir for influenza A, they do not seem to be the main source of human illness. Here, we highlight the role that domestic poultry may play in maintaining A/H5N1 globally, using theoretical models of spatial population structure in poultry populations. We find that a metapopulation of moderately sized poultry flocks can sustain the pathogen in a finite poultry population for over two years. Our results suggest that it is possible that moderately intensive backyard farms could sustain the pathogen indefinitely in real systems. This fits a pattern that has been observed from many empirical systems. Rather than just employing standard culling procedures to control the disease, our model suggests ways that poultry production systems may be modified. PMID:24312455

  19. Eco-SpaCE: an object-oriented, spatially explicit model to assess the risk of multiple environmental stressors on terrestrial vertebrate populations.

    PubMed

    Loos, Mark; Ragas, Ad M J; Plasmeijer, Rinus; Schipper, Aafke M; Hendriks, A Jan

    2010-08-15

    Wildlife organisms are exposed to a combination of chemical, biological and physical stressors. Information about the relative impact of each stressor can support management decisions, e.g., by the allocation of resources to counteract those stressors that cause most harm. The present paper introduces Eco-SpaCE; a novel receptor-oriented cumulative exposure model for wildlife species that includes relevant ecological processes such as spatial habitat variation, food web relations, predation, and life history. A case study is presented in which the predicted mortality due to cadmium contamination is compared with the predicted mortality due to flooding, starvation, and predation for three small mammal species (Wood mouse, Common vole, and European mole) and a predator (Little owl) living in a lowland floodplain along the river Rhine in The Netherlands. Results indicated that cadmium is the principal stressor for European mole and Little owl populations. Wood mouse and Common vole population densities were mainly influenced by flooding and food availability. Their estimated population sizes were consistent with numbers reported in literature. Predictions for cadmium accumulation and flooding stress were in agreement with field data. The large uncertainty around cadmium toxicity for wildlife leads to the conclusion that more species-specific ecotoxicological data is required for more realistic risk assessments. The predictions for starvation were subject to the limited quantitative information on biomass obtainable as food for vertebrates. It is concluded that the modelling approach employed in Eco-SpaCE, combining ecology with ecotoxicology, provides a viable option to explore the relative contribution of contamination to the overall stress in an ecosystem. This can help environmental managers to prioritize management options, and to reduce local risks.

  20. The role of spatial information in the preservation of the shrimp nursery function of mangroves: a spatially explicit bio-economic model for the assessment of land use trade-offs.

    PubMed

    Zavalloni, Matteo; Groeneveld, Rolf A; van Zwieten, Paul A M

    2014-10-01

    Conversion to aquaculture affects the provision of important ecosystem services provided by mangrove ecosystems, and this effect depends strongly on the location of the conversion. We introduce in a bio-economic mathematical programming model relevant spatial elements that affect the provision of the nursery habitat service of mangroves: (1) direct or indirect connection of mangroves to watercourses; (2) the spatial allocation of aquaculture ponds; and (3) the presence of non-linear relations between mangrove extent and juvenile recruitment to wild shrimp populations. By tracing out the production possibilities frontier of wild and cultivated shrimp, the model assesses the role of spatial information in the trade-off between aquaculture and the nursery habitat function using spatial elements relevant to our model of a mangrove area in Ca Mau Province, Viet Nam. Results show that where mangrove forests have to coexist with shrimp aquaculture ponds, the inclusion of specific spatial information on ecosystem functions in considerations of land allocation can achieve aquaculture benefits while largely preserving the economic benefits generated by the nursery habitat function. However, if spatial criteria are ignored, ill-advised land allocation decisions can easily lead to a collapse of the mangrove's nursery function.

  1. Local epiphyte establishment and future metapopulation dynamics in landscapes with different spatiotemporal properties.

    PubMed

    Belinchón, Rocío; Harrison, Philip J; Mair, Louise; Várkonyi, Gergely; Snäll, Tord

    2017-03-01

    Understanding the relative importance of different ecological processes on the metapopulation dynamics of species is the basis for accurately forecasting metapopulation size in fragmented landscapes. Successful local colonization depends on both species dispersal range and how local habitat conditions affect establishment success. Moreover, there is limited understanding of the effects of different spatiotemporal landscape properties on future metapopulation size. We investigate which factors drive the future metapopulation size of the epiphytic model lichen species Lobaria pulmonaria in a managed forest landscape. First, we test the importance of dispersal and local conditions on the colonization-extinction dynamics of the species using Bayesian state-space modelling of a large-scale data set collected over a 10-yr period. Second, we test the importance of dispersal and establishment limitation in explaining establishment probability and subsequent local population growth, based on a 10-yr propagule sowing experiment. Third, we test how future metapopulation size is affected by different metapopulation and spatiotemporal landscape dynamics, using simulations with the metapopulation models fitted to the empirical data. The colonization probability increased with tree inclination and connectivity, with a mean dispersal distance of 97 m (95% credible intervals, 5-530 m). Local extinctions were mainly deterministic set by tree mortality, but also by tree cutting by forestry. No experimental establishments took place on clearcuts, and in closed forest the establishment probability was higher on trees growing on moist than on dry-mesic soils. The subsequent local population growth rate increased with increasing bark roughness. The simulations showed that the restricted dispersal range estimated (compared to non-restricted dispersal range), and short tree rotation length (65 yr instead of 120) had approximately the same negative effects on future metapopulation size

  2. Connectivity and resilience of coral reef metapopulations in marine protected areas: matching empirical efforts to predictive needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Botsford, L. W.; White, J. W.; Coffroth, M.-A.; Paris, C. B.; Planes, S.; Shearer, T. L.; Thorrold, S. R.; Jones, G. P.

    2009-06-01

    Design and decision-making for marine protected areas (MPAs) on coral reefs require prediction of MPA effects with population models. Modeling of MPAs has shown how the persistence of metapopulations in systems of MPAs depends on the size and spacing of MPAs, and levels of fishing outside the MPAs. However, the pattern of demographic connectivity produced by larval dispersal is a key uncertainty in those modeling studies. The information required to assess population persistence is a dispersal matrix containing the fraction of larvae traveling to each location from each location, not just the current number of larvae exchanged among locations. Recent metapopulation modeling research with hypothetical dispersal matrices has shown how the spatial scale of dispersal, degree of advection versus diffusion, total larval output, and temporal and spatial variability in dispersal influence population persistence. Recent empirical studies using population genetics, parentage analysis, and geochemical and artificial marks in calcified structures have improved the understanding of dispersal. However, many such studies report current self-recruitment (locally produced settlement/settlement from elsewhere), which is not as directly useful as local retention (locally produced settlement/total locally released), which is a component of the dispersal matrix. Modeling of biophysical circulation with larval particle tracking can provide the required elements of dispersal matrices and assess their sensitivity to flows and larval behavior, but it requires more assumptions than direct empirical methods. To make rapid progress in understanding the scales and patterns of connectivity, greater communication between empiricists and population modelers will be needed. Empiricists need to focus more on identifying the characteristics of the dispersal matrix, while population modelers need to track and assimilate evolving empirical results.

  3. Spatially Explicit Full Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Accounting for the Midwestern and Continental US: Modeling and Decision Support for Carbon Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    West, T. O.; Brandt, C. C.; Wilson, B. S.; Hellwinckel, C. M.; Mueller, M.; Tyler, D. D.; de La Torre Ugarte, D. G.; Larson, J. A.; Nelson, R. G.; Marland, G.

    2006-12-01

    Full carbon accounting for terrestrial ecosystems is intended to quantify changes in net carbon emissions caused by changes in land management. On agricultural lands, changes in land management can cause changes in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use, agricultural lime, and decomposition of soil carbon. Changes in off-site emissions can occur from the manufacturing of fertilizers, pesticides, and agricultural lime. We are developing a full carbon accounting framework that can be used for estimates of on-site net carbon flux or for full greenhouse gas accounting at a high spatial resolution. Estimates are based on the assimilation of national inventory data, soil carbon dynamics based on empirical analyses of field data, and Landsat-derived remote sensing products with 30x30m resolution. We applied this framework to a mid-western region of the US that consists of 679 counties approximately centered around Iowa. We estimate the 1990 baseline soil carbon for this region to be 4,099 Tg C to a 3m maximum depth. Soil carbon accumulation of 57.3 Tg C is estimated to have occurred in this region between 1991-2000. Without accounting for soil carbon loss associated with changes to more intense tillage practices, our estimate increases to 66.3 Tg C. This indicates that on-site permanence of soil carbon is approximately 86% with no additional economic incentives provided for soil carbon sequestration practices. Total net carbon flux from the agricultural activities in the Midwestern US in 2000 is estimated at about -5 Tg C. This estimate includes carbon uptake, decomposition, harvested products, and on-site fossil fuel emissions. Therefore, soil carbon accumulation offset on-site emissions in 2000. Our carbon accounting framework offers a method to integrate new inventory and remote sensing data on an annual basis, account for alternating annual trends in land management without the need for model equilibration, and provide a transparent means to monitor changes soil carbon

  4. Modeling metapopulation dynamics for single species of seabirds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Buckley, P.A.; Downer, R.; McCullough, D.R.; Barrett, R.H.

    1992-01-01

    Seabirds share many characteristics setting them apart from other birds. Importantly, they breed more or less obligatorily in local clusters of colonies that can move regularly from site to site, and they routinely exchange breeders. The properties of such metapopulations have only recently begun to be examined, often with models that are occupancy-based (using only colony presence or absence data) and deterministic (using single, empirically determined values for each of several population biology parameters). Some recent models are now frequency-based (using actual population sizes at each site), as well as stochastic (randomly varying critical parameters between biologically realistic limits), yielding better estimates of the behavior of future populations. Using two such models designed to quantify relative risks of population changes under different future scenarios (RAMAS/stage and RAMAS/space), we have examined probable future populations dynamics for three hypothetical seabirds -- an albatross, a cormorant, and a tern. With real parameters and ranges of values we alternatively modelled each species with and without density dependence, as well as with their numbers in a single, large colony, or in many smaller ones, distributed evenly or lognormally. We produced a series of species-typical lines for different population risks over the 50 years we simulated. We call these curves Instantaneous Threat Assessments (ITAs), and their shapes mirror the varying life history characteristics of our three species. We also demonstrated (by a process known as sensitivity analysis) that the most important parameters determining future population fates of all three species were correlation of mean growth rate among colonies; dispersal rate of present and future breeders; subadult survivorship; and the number of subpopulations (=colonies) - in roughly that descending order of importance. In addition, density dependence was found to markedly alter ITA line shape and position

  5. The effect of area size and predation on the time to extinction of prairie vole populations. simulation studies via SERDYCA: a Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Model of Rodent Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Kostova, T; Carlsen, T

    2003-11-21

    We present a spatially-explicit individual-based computational model of rodent dynamics, customized for the prairie vole species, M. Ochrogaster. The model is based on trophic relationships and represents important features such as territorial competition, mating behavior, density-dependent predation and dispersal out of the modeled spatial region. Vegetation growth and vole fecundity are dependent on climatic components. The results of simulations show that the model correctly predicts the overall temporal dynamics of the population density. Time-series analysis shows a very good match between the periods corresponding to the peak population density frequencies predicted by the model and the ones reported in the literature. The model is used to study the relation between persistence, landscape area and predation. We introduce the notions of average time to extinction (ATE) and persistence frequency to quantify persistence. While the ATE decreases with decrease of area, it is a bell-shaped function of the predation level: increasing for 'small' and decreasing for 'large' predation levels.

  6. Crop water productivity under increasing irrigation capacities in Romania. A spatially-explicit assessment of winter wheat and maize cropping systems in the southern lowlands of the country

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dogaru, Diana

    2016-04-01

    Improved water use efficiency in agriculture is a key issue in terms of sustainable management and consumption of water resources in the context of peoples' increasing food demands and preferences, economic growth and agricultural adaptation options to climate variability and change. Crop Water Productivity (CWP), defined as the ratio of yield (or value of harvested crop) to actual evapotranspiration or as the ratio of yield (or value of harvested crop) to volume of supplied irrigation water (Molden et al., 1998), is a useful indicator in the evaluation of water use efficiency and ultimately of cropland management, particularly in the case of regions affected by or prone to drought and where irrigation application is essential for achieving expected productions. The present study investigates the productivity of water in winter wheat and maize cropping systems in the Romanian Plain (49 594 sq. km), an important agricultural region in the southern part of the country which is increasingly affected by drought and dry spells (Sandu and Mateescu, 2014). The scope of the analysis is to assess the gains and losses in CWP for the two crops, by considering increased irrigated cropland and improved fertilization, these being the most common measures potentially and already implemented by the farmers. In order to capture the effects of such measures on agricultural water use, the GIS-based EPIC crop-growth model (GEPIC) (Williams et al., 1989; Liu, 2009) was employed to simulate yields, seasonal evapotranspiration from crops and volume of irrigation water in the Romanian Plain for the 2002 - 2013 interval with focus on 2007 and 2010, two representative years for dry and wet periods, respectively. The GEPIC model operates on a daily time step, while the geospatial input datasets for this analysis (e.g. climate data, soil classes and soil parameters, land use) were harmonized at 1km resolution grid cell. The sources of the spatial data are mainly the national profile agencies

  7. Dynamics of Predator-Prey Metapopulations with Allee Effects.

    PubMed

    Fan, Meng; Wu, Ping; Feng, Zhilan; Swihart, Robert K

    2016-08-01

    Allee effects increasingly are recognized as influential determinants of population dynamics, especially in disturbed landscapes. We developed a predator-prey metapopulation model to study the impact of an Allee effect on predator-prey. The model incorporates habitat destruction and predators with imperfect information about prey distribution. Criteria are established for the existence and stability of equilibria, and the possible existence of a limit cycle is discussed. Numerical bifurcation analysis of the model is carried out to examine the impact of Allee effects as well as other key processes on trophic dynamics. Inclusion of Allee effects produces a richer array of dynamics than earlier models in which it was absent. When prey interacts with generalist predators, Allee effects operate synergistically to depress prey populations. Allee effects are more likely to depress occupancy levels when destruction of habitat patches is moderate; at severe levels of destruction, Allee effects are swamped by demographic effects of habitat loss. Stronger Allee effects correspond to lower thresholds of predator colonization rates at which prey become extinct. We discuss implications of our model for conservation of rare species as well as pest management via biocontrol.

  8. Large Variations in HIV-1 Viral Load Explained by Shifting-Mosaic Metapopulation Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Lythgoe, Katrina A.; Blanquart, François

    2016-01-01

    The viral population of HIV-1, like many pathogens that cause systemic infection, is structured and differentiated within the body. The dynamics of cellular immune trafficking through the blood and within compartments of the body has also received wide attention. Despite these advances, mathematical models, which are widely used to interpret and predict viral and immune dynamics in infection, typically treat the infected host as a well-mixed homogeneous environment. Here, we present mathematical, analytical, and computational results that demonstrate that consideration of the spatial structure of the viral population within the host radically alters predictions of previous models. We study the dynamics of virus replication and cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) within a metapopulation of spatially segregated patches, representing T cell areas connected by circulating blood and lymph. The dynamics of the system depend critically on the interaction between CTLs and infected cells at the within-patch level. We show that for a wide range of parameters, the system admits an unexpected outcome called the shifting-mosaic steady state. In this state, the whole body’s viral population is stable over time, but the equilibrium results from an underlying, highly dynamic process of local infection and clearance within T-cell centers. Notably, and in contrast to previous models, this new model can explain the large differences in set-point viral load (SPVL) observed between patients and their distribution, as well as the relatively low proportion of cells infected at any one time, and alters the predicted determinants of viral load variation. PMID:27706164

  9. A modeling framework for integrated harvest and habitat management of North American waterfowl: Case-study of northern pintail metapopulation dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mattsson, Brady J.; Runge, M.C.; Devries, J.H.; Boomer, G.S.; Eadie, J.M.; Haukos, D.A.; Fleskes, J.P.; Koons, D.N.; Thogmartin, W.E.; Clark, R.G.

    2012-01-01

    We developed and evaluated the performance of a metapopulation model enabling managers to examine, for the first time, the consequences of alternative management strategies involving habitat conditions and hunting on both harvest opportunity and carrying capacity (i.e., equilibrium population size in the absence of harvest) for migratory waterfowl at a continental scale. Our focus is on the northern pintail (Anas acuta; hereafter, pintail), which serves as a useful model species to examine the potential for integrating waterfowl harvest and habitat management in North America. We developed submodel structure capturing important processes for pintail populations during breeding, fall migration, winter, and spring migration while encompassing spatial structure representing three core breeding areas and two core nonbreeding areas. A number of continental-scale predictions from our baseline parameterization (e.g., carrying capacity of 5.5 million, equilibrium population size of 2.9 million and harvest rate of 12% at maximum sustained yield [MSY]) were within 10% of those from the pintail harvest strategy under current use by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. To begin investigating the interaction of harvest and habitat management, we examined equilibrium population conditions for pintail at the continental scale across a range of harvest rates while perturbing model parameters to represent: (1) a 10% increase in breeding habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population (PR); and (2) a 10% increase in nonbreeding habitat quantity along in the Gulf Coast (GC). Based on our model and analysis, a greater increase in carrying capacity and sustainable harvest was seen when increasing a proxy for habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population. This finding and underlying assumptions must be critically evaluated, however, before specific management recommendations can be made. To make such recommendations, we require (1) extended, refined submodels with additional

  10. Spatial and temporal variations of new particle formation in East Asia using an NPF-explicit WRF-chem model: North-south contrast in new particle formation frequency

    SciTech Connect

    Matsui, H.; Koike, Makoto; Takegawa, Nobuyuki; Kondo, Yutaka; Takami, A.; Takamura, T.; Yoon, Soh-joung; Kim, S. W.; Lim, Hyuntae; Fast, Jerome D.

    2013-10-27

    The new particle formation (NPF)-explicit version of the WRF-chem model, which we developed recently, can calculate the growth and sink of nucleated clusters explicitly with 20 aerosol size bins from 1 nm to 10 μm. In this study, the model is used to understand spatial and temporal variations of the frequency of NPF events and the concentrations of aerosols (condensation nuclei, CN) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) within the boundary layer in East Asia in spring 2009. Model simulations show distinct north-south contrast in the frequency and mechanism of NPF in East Asia. NPF mostly occurred over limited periods and regions between 30° and 45°N, such as northeast China, Korea, and Japan, including regions around active volcanoes (Miyakejima and Sakurajima). At these latitudes, NPF was considerably suppressed by high concentrations of preexisting particles under stagnant air conditions associated with high-pressure systems, while nucleation occurred more extensively on most days during the simulation period. Conversely, neither nucleation nor NPF occurred frequently south of 30°N because of lower SO2 emissions and H2SO4 concentrations. The period-averaged NPF frequency was 3 times higher at latitudes of 30° - 45°N than at latitudes of 20° - 30°N. The north-south contrast of NPF frequency is validated by surface measurements in outflow regions in East Asia. The period- and domain-averaged contribution of secondary particles is estimated to be 44% for CN (> 10 nm) and 26% for CCN at a supersaturation of 1.0% in our simulation, though the contribution is highly sensitive to the magnitudes and size distributions of primary aerosol emissions and the coefficients in the nucleation parameterizations.

  11. Experimental beetle metapopulations respond positively to dynamic landscapes and reduced connectivity.

    PubMed

    Govindan, Byju N; Swihart, Robert K

    2012-01-01

    Interactive effects of multiple environmental factors on metapopulation dynamics have received scant attention. We designed a laboratory study to test hypotheses regarding interactive effects of factors affecting the metapopulation dynamics of red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum. Within a four-patch landscape we modified resource level (constant and diminishing), patch connectivity (high and low) and patch configuration (static and dynamic) to conduct a 2(3) factorial experiment, consisting of 8 metapopulations, each with 3 replicates. For comparison, two control populations consisting of isolated and static subpopulations were provided with resources at constant or diminishing levels. Longitudinal data from 22 tri-weekly counts of beetle abundance were analyzed using bayesian Poisson generalized linear mixed models to estimate additive and interactive effects of factors affecting abundance. Constant resource levels, low connectivity and dynamic patches yielded greater levels of adult beetle abundance. For a given resource level, frequency of colonization exceeded extinction in landscapes with dynamic patches when connectivity was low, thereby promoting greater patch occupancy. Negative density dependence of pupae on adults occurred and was stronger in landscapes with low connectivity and constant resources; these metapopulations also demonstrated greatest stability. Metapopulations in control landscapes went extinct quickly, denoting lower persistence than comparable landscapes with low connectivity. When landscape carrying capacity was constant, habitat destruction coupled with low connectivity created asynchronous local dynamics and refugia within which cannibalism of pupae was reduced. Increasing connectivity may be counter-productive and habitat destruction/recreation may be beneficial to species in some contexts.

  12. Estimating rates of local extinction and colonization in colonial species and an extension to the metapopulation and community levels

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barbraud, C.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Hafner, H.

    2003-01-01

    Coloniality has mainly been studied from an evolutionary perspective, but relatively few studies have developed methods for modelling colony dynamics. Changes in number of colonies over time provide a useful tool for predicting and evaluating the responses of colonial species to management and to environmental disturbance. Probabilistic Markov process models have been recently used to estimate colony site dynamics using presence-absence data when all colonies are detected in sampling efforts. Here, we define and develop two general approaches for the modelling and analysis of colony dynamics for sampling situations in which all colonies are, and are not, detected. For both approaches, we develop a general probabilistic model for the data and then constrain model parameters based on various hypotheses about colony dynamics. We use Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to assess the adequacy of the constrained models. The models are parameterised with conditional probabilities of local colony site extinction and colonization. Presence-absence data arising from Pollock's robust capture-recapture design provide the basis for obtaining unbiased estimates of extinction, colonization, and detection probabilities when not all colonies are detected. This second approach should be particularly useful in situations where detection probabilities are heterogeneous among colony sites. The general methodology is illustrated using presence-absence data on two species of herons (Purple Heron, Ardea purpurea and Grey Heron, Ardea cinerea). Estimates of the extinction and colonization rates showed interspecific differences and strong temporal and spatial variations. We were also able to test specific predictions about colony dynamics based on ideas about habitat change and metapopulation dynamics. We recommend estimators based on probabilistic modelling for future work on colony dynamics. We also believe that this methodological framework has wide application to problems in animal

  13. Effects of patch quality and network structure on patch occupancy dynamics of a yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation.

    PubMed

    Ozgul, Arpat; Armitage, Kenneth B; Blumstein, Daniel T; Vanvuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

    2006-01-01

    1. The presence/absence of a species at a particular site is the simplest form of data that can be collected during ecological field studies. We used 13 years (1990-2002) of survey data to parameterize a stochastic patch occupancy model for a metapopulation of the yellow-bellied marmot in Colorado, and investigated the significance of particular patches and the influence of site quality, network characteristics and regional stochasticity on the metapopulation persistence. 2. Persistence of the yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation was strongly dependent on the high quality colony sites, and persistence probability was highly sensitive to small changes in the quality of these sites. 3. A relatively small number of colony sites was ultimately responsible for the regional persistence. However, lower quality satellite sites also made a significant contribution to long-term metapopulation persistence, especially when regional stochasticity was high. 4. The northern network of the marmot metapopulation was more stable compared to the southern network, and the persistence of the southern network depended heavily on the northern network. 5. Although complex models of metapopulation dynamics may provide a more accurate description of metapopulation dynamics, such models are data-intensive. Our study, one of the very few applications of stochastic patch occupancy models to a mammalian species, suggests that stochastic patch occupancy models can provide important insights into metapopulation dynamics using data that are easy to collect.

  14. A spatially-explicit model of acarological risk of exposure to Borrelia burgdorferi-infected Ixodes pacificus nymphs in northwestern California based on woodland type, temperature, and water vapor

    PubMed Central

    Eisen, Rebecca J.; Eisen, Lars; Girard, Yvette A.; Fedorova, Natalia; Mun, Jeomhee; Slikas, Beth; Leonhard, Sarah; Kitron, Uriel; Lane, Robert S.

    2010-01-01

    In the far-western United States, the nymphal stage of the western black-legged tick, Ixodes pacificus, has been implicated as the primary vector to humans of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (hereinafter referred to as B. burgdorferi), the causative agent of Lyme borreliosis in North America. In the present study, we sought to determine if infection prevalence with B. burgdorferi in I. pacificus nymphs and the density of infected nymphs differ between dense-woodland types within Mendocino County, California, and to develop and evaluate a spatially-explicit model for density of infected nymphs in dense woodlands within this high-incidence area for Lyme borreliosis. In total, 4.9% (264) of 5431 I. pacificus nymphs tested for the presence of B. burgdorferi were infected. Among the 78 sampling sites, infection prevalence ranged from 0 to 22% and density of infected nymphs from 0 to 2.04 per 100 m2. Infection prevalence was highest in woodlands dominated by hardwoods (6.2%) and lowest for redwood (1.9%) and coastal pine (0%). Density of infected nymphs also was higher in hardwood-dominated woodlands than in conifer-dominated ones that included redwood or pine. Our spatial risk model, which yielded an overall accuracy of 85%, indicated that warmer areas with less variation between maximum and minimum monthly water vapor in the air were more likely to include woodlands with elevated acarological risk of exposure to infected nymphs. We found that 37% of dense woodlands in the county were predicted to pose an elevated risk of exposure to infected nymphs, and that 94% of the dense-woodland areas that were predicted to harbor elevated densities of infected nymphs were located on privately-owned land. PMID:20532183

  15. Approximate Bayesian estimation of extinction rate in the Finnish Daphnia magna metapopulation

    PubMed Central

    ROBINSON, JOHN D.; HALL, DAVID W.; WARES, JOHN P.

    2015-01-01

    Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is useful for parameterizing complex models in population genetics. In this study, ABC was applied to simultaneously estimate parameter values for a model of metapopulation coalescence and test two alternatives to a strict metapopulation model in the well-studied network of Daphnia magna populations in Finland. The models shared four free parameters: the subpopulation genetic diversity (θS), the rate of gene flow among patches (4Nm), the founding population size (N0) and the metapopulation extinction rate (e) but differed in the distribution of extinction rates across habitat patches in the system. The three models had either a constant extinction rate in all populations (strict metapopulation), one population that was protected from local extinction (i.e. a persistent source), or habitat-specific extinction rates drawn from a distribution with specified mean and variance. Our model selection analysis favoured the model including a persistent source population over the two alternative models. Of the closest 750 000 data sets in Euclidean space, 78% were simulated under the persistent source model (estimated posterior probability = 0.769). This fraction increased to more than 85% when only the closest 150 000 data sets were considered (estimated posterior probability = 0.774). Approximate Bayesian computation was then used to estimate parameter values that might produce the observed set of summary statistics. Our analysis provided posterior distributions for e that included the point estimate obtained from previous data from the Finnish D. magna metapopulation. Our results support the use of ABC and population genetic data for testing the strict metapopulation model and parameterizing complex models of demography. PMID:23551417

  16. On valuing patches: Estimating contributions to metapopulation growth with reverse-time capture-recapture modelling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sanderlin, J.S.; Waser, P.M.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

    2012-01-01

    Metapopulation ecology has historically been rich in theory, yet analytical approaches for inferring demographic relationships among local populations have been few. We show how reverse-time multi-state capture-recapture models can be used to estimate the importance of local recruitment and interpopulation dispersal to metapopulation growth. We use 'contribution metrics' to infer demographic connectedness among eight local populations of banner-tailed kangaroo rats, to assess their demographic closure, and to investigate sources of variation in these contributions. Using a 7 year dataset, we show that: (i) local populations are relatively independent demographically, and contributions to local population growth via dispersal within the system decline with distance; (ii) growth contributions via local survival and recruitment are greater for adults than juveniles, while contributions involving dispersal are greater for juveniles; (iii) central populations rely more on local recruitment and survival than peripheral populations; (iv) contributions involving dispersal are not clearly related to overall metapopulation density; and (v) estimated contributions from outside the system are unexpectedly large. Our analytical framework can classify metapopulations on a continuum between demographic independence and panmixia, detect hidden population growth contributions, and make inference about other population linkage forms, including rescue effects and source-sink structures. Finally, we discuss differences between demographic and genetic population linkage patterns for our system. ?? 2011 The Royal Society.

  17. Inferring population and metapopulation dynamics of Liparis loeselii from single-census and inventory data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oostermeijer, J. G. B.; Hartman, Y.

    2014-10-01

    To conserve endangered species, information is needed on (meta)population responses to habitat quality and management. As possibilities for long-term studies are generally limited, it is important to obtain as much information as possible in a single field season. We obtained such single-census data for the orchid Liparis loeselii, a European Habitat Directive species. Stage structures of 15 Dutch dune and fen populations were related to vegetation structure, environmental indicators, and management. Botanical inventory records from 1930 to 2003 were used to infer population life spans. Cluster analysis did not reveal successional stage structure types. Dense populations with high recruitment mainly occurred in open, young-successional vegetation with high soil pH. High soil humidity and acidification negatively affected orchid densities. Early mowing was preferable over late mowing in dune slacks, because the latter reduced juvenile densities. The predominant population life span was three to eight years, and similar for dune slacks and fens. Longer life spans were occasionally observed at mown sites with influx of base-rich water. Our results suggest high metapopulation dynamics. Long-term metapopulation viability requires the formation of new habitat by dune slack formation in dunes and peat removal in fens. Population persistence can be prolonged to some extent by mowing, extensive grazing, or sod removal if natural habitat formation is impossible. Our study demonstrates that useful information on (meta)population ecology and viability can be obtained in a single field season.

  18. Spatially explicit modeling of annual and seasonal habitat for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Nevada and Northeastern California—An updated decision-support tool for management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Ricca, Mark A.; Gustafson, K. Benjamin; Sanchez-chopitea, Erika; Mauch, Kimberly; Niell, Lara; Gardner, Scott; Espinosa, Shawn; Delehanty, David J.

    2016-05-20

    Successful adaptive management hinges largely upon integrating new and improved sources of information as they become available. As a timely example of this tenet, we updated a management decision support tool that was previously developed for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus, hereinafter referred to as “sage-grouse”) populations in Nevada and California. Specifically, recently developed spatially explicit habitat maps derived from empirical data played a key role in the conservation of this species facing listing under the Endangered Species Act. This report provides an updated process for mapping relative habitat suitability and management categories for sage-grouse in Nevada and northeastern California (Coates and others, 2014, 2016). These updates include: (1) adding radio and GPS telemetry locations from sage-grouse monitored at multiple sites during 2014 to the original location dataset beginning in 1998; (2) integrating output from high resolution maps (1–2 m2) of sagebrush and pinyon-juniper cover as covariates in resource selection models; (3) modifying the spatial extent of the analyses to match newly available vegetation layers; (4) explicit modeling of relative habitat suitability during three seasons (spring, summer, winter) that corresponded to critical life history periods for sage-grouse (breeding, brood-rearing, over-wintering); (5) accounting for differences in habitat availability between more mesic sagebrush steppe communities in the northern part of the study area and drier Great Basin sagebrush in more southerly regions by categorizing continuous region-wide surfaces of habitat suitability index (HSI) with independent locations falling within two hydrological zones; (6) integrating the three seasonal maps into a composite map of annual relative habitat suitability; (7) deriving updated land management categories based on previously determined cut-points for intersections of habitat suitability and an updated index of sage

  19. Long Term Dynamics of Interior Least Tern Sandbar Habitat: Landsat's Contribution to a Metapopulation Ecological Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulliner, E. A.; Jacobson, R. B.; Elliott, C. M.; Lott, C. A.

    2013-12-01

    Sandbars in sand-bedded rivers of the central U.S have ecological importance to many species. Many of these sandbars provide the primary historical breeding habitat for the endangered Interior Least Tern (Sterna antillarum), or ILT. Sandbars within these systems are highly variable both temporally and spatially due to morphodynamic and vegetative processes, as well as varying hydrology. Differences in available habitat type and quality occur not only among rivers but among individual reaches of a single river. Complete characterization of temporal and spatial shifts in sandbar habitat therefore requires long-term datasets spanning the entire range used by the species with sufficient temporal resolution to capture hydrologically-driven system dynamics. The Landsat series of satellites with their long-term, wide-scale, consistent data records provide a rich and unique source of information on this habitat. We developed methods to automate characterization of sandbar habitat within 13 rivers of the central U.S. plains using Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery. The rivers were divided into segments with relatively uniform flow regimes (between major tributaries). Approximately 25,000 combinations of river segments with daily streamflow records and unobscured TM images exist for the breeding range of the ILT. Within each of these combinations of flow segments and TM images, we have automated the identification of river, vegetation, and bare sand within the active river channel boundaries for image-specific streamflow using a combination of geoprocessing scripts and unsupervised ISODATA classification. The primary goal of this effort is to create physically-informed empirical models of sandbar habitat dynamics, including morphodynamic and vegetative influences on sandbar creation and degradation. The models will be used to parameterize sandbar habitat in an individual-based metapopulation model of the ILT. The geospatial data we have extracted from TM images allows

  20. Extinction, reintroduction, and restoration of a lizard meta-population equilibrium in the Missouri Ozarks.

    PubMed

    Sites, Jack W

    2013-07-01

    In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Neuwald & Templeton (2013) report on a 22-year study of natural populations of Collared Lizards (Crotaphytus collaris) that evolved on isolated on rock outcrops (‘glades’) in the Ozark Mountains in eastern Missouri. This ecosystem was originally maintained by frequent fires that kept the forest understory open, but fire-suppression was adopted as official policy in about 1945, which led to a loss of native biodiversity, including local extinctions of some lizard populations. Policies aimed at restoring biodiversity included controlled burns and re-introductions of lizards to some glades, which began in 1984. Populations were monitored from 1984–2006, and demographic and genetic data collected from 1 679 lizards were used to documents shifts in meta-population dynamics over four distinct phases of lizard recovery: 1–an initial translocation of lizards drawn from the same source populations onto three glades that were likely part of one metapopulation; 2–a period of isolation and genetic drift associated with the absence of fires; 3–a period of rapid colonization and population increase following restoration of fire; and 4–stabilization of the meta-population under regular prescribed burning. This study system thus provides a rare opportunity to characterize the dynamics of a landscape-scale management strategy on the restoration of the meta-population of a reintroduced species; long-term case studies of the extinction, founding, increase, and stabilization of a well-defined meta-population, based on both demographic and population genetic data, are rare in the conservation, ecological, and evolutionary literature.

  1. Assessment on the rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan using a process-based model and spatially explicit land-use change inventories - Part 2: Future potentials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

    2014-08-01

    Future potentials of the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural lands in Japan were estimated using a simulation system we recently developed to simulate SOC stock change at country-scale under varying land-use change, climate, soil, and agricultural practices, in a spatially explicit manner. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2006 with historical inventories, and subsequently to 2020 with future scenarios of agricultural activity comprised of various agricultural policy targets advocated by the Japanese government. Furthermore, the simulation was run subsequently until 2100 while forcing no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity to investigate duration and course of SOC stock change at country scale. A scenario with an increased rate of organic carbon input to agricultural fields by intensified crop rotation in combination with the suppression of conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types was found to have a greater reduction of CO2 emission by enhanced soil carbon sequestration, but only under a circumstance in which the converted agricultural lands will become settlements that were considered to have a relatively lower rate of organic carbon input. The size of relative reduction of CO2 emission in this scenario was comparable to that in another contrasting scenario (business-as-usual scenario of agricultural activity) in which a relatively lower rate of organic matter input to agricultural fields was assumed in combination with an increased rate of conversion of the agricultural fields to unmanaged grasslands through abandonment. Our simulation experiment clearly demonstrated that net-net-based accounting on SOC stock change, defined as the differences between the emissions and removals during the commitment period and the emissions and removals during a previous period (base year or base period of Kyoto Protocol), can be largely influenced by variations in future climate. Whereas baseline-based accounting, defined

  2. Rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan: an assessment using a process-based model and spatially-explicit land-use change inventories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

    2013-11-01

    In order to develop a system to estimate a country-scale soil organic carbon stock change (SCSC) in agricultural lands in Japan that enables to take account effect of land-use changes, climate, different agricultural activity and nature of soils, a spatially-explicit model simulation system using Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) integrated with spatial and temporal inventories was developed. Future scenarios on agricultural activity and land-use change were prepared, in addition to future climate projections by global climate models, with purposely selecting rather exaggerated and contrasting set of scenarios to assess system's sensitivity as well as to better factor out direct human influence in the SCSC accounting. Simulation was run from year 1970 to 2008, and to year 2020, with historical inventories and future scenarios involving target set in agricultural policy, respectively, and subsequently until year 2100 with no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity but with varying climate to investigate course of SCSC. Results of the country-scale SCSC simulation have indicated that conversion of paddy fields to croplands occurred during past decades, as well as a large conversion of agricultural fields to settlements or other lands that have occurred in historical period and would continue in future, could act as main factors causing greater loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) at country-scale, with reduction organic carbon input to soils and enhancement of SOC decomposition by transition of soil environment to aerobic conditions, respectively. Scenario analysis indicated that an option to increase organic carbon input to soils with intensified rotation with suppressing conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types could achieve reduction of CO2 emission due to SCSC in the same level as that of another option to let agricultural fields be abandoned. These results emphasize that land-use changes, especially conversion of the agricultural lands

  3. Climate variables explain neutral and adaptive variation within salmonid metapopulations: The importance of replication in landscape genetics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hand, Brian K; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Wade, Alisa A.; Kovach, Ryan; Whited, Diane C.; Narum, Shawn R.; Matala, Andrew P; Ackerman, Michael W.; Garner, B. A.; Kimball, John S; Stanford, Jack A.; Luikart, Gordon

    2016-01-01

    Understanding how environmental variation influences population genetic structure is important for conservation management because it can reveal how human stressors influence population connectivity, genetic diversity and persistence. We used riverscape genetics modelling to assess whether climatic and habitat variables were related to neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation (population-specific and pairwise FST) within five metapopulations (79 populations, 4583 individuals) of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Columbia River Basin, USA. Using 151 putatively neutral and 29 candidate adaptive SNP loci, we found that climate-related variables (winter precipitation, summer maximum temperature, winter highest 5% flow events and summer mean flow) best explained neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation within metapopulations, suggesting that climatic variation likely influences both demography (neutral variation) and local adaptation (adaptive variation). However, we did not observe consistent relationships between climate variables and FST across all metapopulations, underscoring the need for replication when extrapolating results from one scale to another (e.g. basin-wide to the metapopulation scale). Sensitivity analysis (leave-one-population-out) revealed consistent relationships between climate variables and FST within three metapopulations; however, these patterns were not consistent in two metapopulations likely due to small sample sizes (N = 10). These results provide correlative evidence that climatic variation has shaped the genetic structure of steelhead populations and highlight the need for replication and sensitivity analyses in land and riverscape genetics.

  4. Climate variables explain neutral and adaptive variation within salmonid metapopulations: the importance of replication in landscape genetics.

    PubMed

    Hand, Brian K; Muhlfeld, Clint C; Wade, Alisa A; Kovach, Ryan P; Whited, Diane C; Narum, Shawn R; Matala, Andrew P; Ackerman, Michael W; Garner, Brittany A; Kimball, John S; Stanford, Jack A; Luikart, Gordon

    2016-02-01

    Understanding how environmental variation influences population genetic structure is important for conservation management because it can reveal how human stressors influence population connectivity, genetic diversity and persistence. We used riverscape genetics modelling to assess whether climatic and habitat variables were related to neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation (population-specific and pairwise FST ) within five metapopulations (79 populations, 4583 individuals) of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Columbia River Basin, USA. Using 151 putatively neutral and 29 candidate adaptive SNP loci, we found that climate-related variables (winter precipitation, summer maximum temperature, winter highest 5% flow events and summer mean flow) best explained neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation within metapopulations, suggesting that climatic variation likely influences both demography (neutral variation) and local adaptation (adaptive variation). However, we did not observe consistent relationships between climate variables and FST across all metapopulations, underscoring the need for replication when extrapolating results from one scale to another (e.g. basin-wide to the metapopulation scale). Sensitivity analysis (leave-one-population-out) revealed consistent relationships between climate variables and FST within three metapopulations; however, these patterns were not consistent in two metapopulations likely due to small sample sizes (N = 10). These results provide correlative evidence that climatic variation has shaped the genetic structure of steelhead populations and highlight the need for replication and sensitivity analyses in land and riverscape genetics.

  5. High genetic variation in resting-stage production in a metapopulation: Is there evidence for local adaptation?

    PubMed

    Roulin, Anne C; Mariadassou, Mahendra; Hall, Matthew D; Walser, Jean-Claude; Haag, Christoph; Ebert, Dieter

    2015-10-01

    Local adaptation is a key process for the maintenance of genetic diversity and population diversification. A better understanding of the mechanisms that allow (or prevent) local adaptation constitutes a key in apprehending how and at what spatial scale it occurs. The production of resting stages is found in many taxa and reflects an adaptation to outlast adverse environmental conditions. Daphnia magna (Crustacea) can alternate between asexual and sexual reproduction, the latter being linked to dormancy, as resting stages can only be produced sexually. In this species, on a continental scale, resting-stage production is locally adapted--that is, it is induced when the photoperiod indicates the imminence of habitat deterioration. Here, we aimed to explore whether selection is strong enough to maintain local adaptation at a scale of a few kilometers. We assessed life-history traits of 64 D. magna clones originating from 11 populations of a metapopulation with permanent and intermittent pool habitats. We found large within- and between-population variation for all dormancy-related traits, but no evidence for the hypothesized higher resting-stage production in animals from intermittent habitats. We discuss how gene flow, founder events, or other forms of selection might interfere with the process of local adaptation.

  6. Pupil Dilation to Explicit and Non-Explicit Sexual Stimuli.

    PubMed

    Watts, Tuesday M; Holmes, Luke; Savin-Williams, Ritch C; Rieger, Gerulf

    2017-01-01

    Pupil dilation to explicit sexual stimuli (footage of naked and aroused men or women) can elicit sex and sexual orientation differences in sexual response. If similar patterns were replicated with non-explicit sexual stimuli (footage of dressed men and women), then pupil dilation could be indicative of automatic sexual response in fully noninvasive designs. We examined this in 325 men and women with varied sexual orientations to determine whether dilation patterns to non-explicit sexual stimuli resembled those to explicit sexual stimuli depicting the same sex or other sex. Sexual orientation differences in pupil dilation to non-explicit sexual stimuli mirrored those to explicit sexual stimuli. However, the relationship of dilation to non-explicit sexual stimuli with dilation to corresponding explicit sexual stimuli was modest, and effect magnitudes were smaller with non-explicit sexual stimuli than explicit sexual stimuli. The prediction that sexual orientation differences in pupil dilation are larger in men than in women was confirmed with explicit sexual stimuli but not with non-explicit sexual stimuli.

  7. Dispersal-induced destabilization of metapopulations and oscillatory Turing patterns in ecological networks

    PubMed Central

    Hata, Shigefumi; Nakao, Hiroya; Mikhailov, Alexander S.

    2014-01-01

    As shown by Alan Turing in 1952, differential diffusion may destabilize uniform distributions of reacting species and lead to emergence of patterns. While stationary Turing patterns are broadly known, the oscillatory instability, leading to traveling waves in continuous media and sometimes called the wave bifurcation, remains less investigated. Here, we extend the original analysis by Turing to networks and apply it to ecological metapopulations with dispersal connections between habitats. Remarkably, the oscillatory Turing instability does not lead to wave patterns in networks, but to spontaneous development of heterogeneous oscillations and possible extinction of species. We find such oscillatory instabilities for all possible food webs with three predator or prey species, under various assumptions about the mobility of individual species and nonlinear interactions between them. Hence, the oscillatory Turing instability should be generic and must play a fundamental role in metapopulation dynamics, providing a common mechanism for dispersal-induced destabilization of ecosystems. PMID:24394959

  8. Dispersal-induced destabilization of metapopulations and oscillatory Turing patterns in ecological networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hata, Shigefumi; Nakao, Hiroya; Mikhailov, Alexander S.

    2014-01-01

    As shown by Alan Turing in 1952, differential diffusion may destabilize uniform distributions of reacting species and lead to emergence of patterns. While stationary Turing patterns are broadly known, the oscillatory instability, leading to traveling waves in continuous media and sometimes called the wave bifurcation, remains less investigated. Here, we extend the original analysis by Turing to networks and apply it to ecological metapopulations with dispersal connections between habitats. Remarkably, the oscillatory Turing instability does not lead to wave patterns in networks, but to spontaneous development of heterogeneous oscillations and possible extinction of species. We find such oscillatory instabilities for all possible food webs with three predator or prey species, under various assumptions about the mobility of individual species and nonlinear interactions between them. Hence, the oscillatory Turing instability should be generic and must play a fundamental role in metapopulation dynamics, providing a common mechanism for dispersal-induced destabilization of ecosystems.

  9. Rising relative fluctuation as a warning indicator of discontinuous transitions in symbiotic metapopulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lumi, Neeme; Laas, Katrin; Mankin, Romi

    2015-11-01

    The long-time limit behavior of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model of a symbiotic metapopulation subjected to generalized Verhulst self-regulation is considered. The influence of a time-variable environment on the carrying capacities of subpopulations is modeled as a periodic deterministic part and a symmetric dichotomous noise. Relying on the mean-field approach it is established that at certain parameter regimes the mean field (average subpopulations size) exhibits hysteresis in respect to the noise correlation time, manifested in the appearance of colored-noise-induced discontinuous transitions. Especially, it is shown that the relative fluctuation of the subpopulation sizes exhibits accelerated increase prior to abrupt transitions of the metapopulation state. Moreover, in certain cases the autocorrelation function of the population sizes demonstrates anticorrelation at some values of the lag time.

  10. Metapopulation dynamics of the mistletoe and its host in savanna areas with different fire occurrence.

    PubMed

    Teodoro, Grazielle Sales; van den Berg, Eduardo; Arruda, Rafael

    2013-01-01

    Mistletoes are aerial hemiparasitic plants which occupy patches of favorable habitat (host trees) surrounded by unfavorable habitat and may be possibly modeled as a metapopulation. A metapopulation is defined as a subdivided population that persists due to the balance between colonization and extinction in discrete habitat patches. Our aim was to evaluate the dynamics of the mistletoe Psittacanthus robustus and its host Vochysia thyrsoidea in three Brazilian savanna areas using a metapopulation approach. We also evaluated how the differences in terms of fire occurrence affected the dynamic of those populations (two areas burned during the study and one was fire protected). We monitored the populations at six-month intervals. P. robustus population structure and dynamics met the expected criteria for a metapopulation: i) the suitable habitats for the mistletoe occur in discrete patches; (ii) local populations went extinct during the study and (iii) colonization of previously non-occupied patches occurred. The ratio of occupied patches decreased in all areas with time. Local mistletoe populations went extinct due to two different causes: patch extinction in area with no fire and fire killing in the burned areas. In a burned area, the largest decrease of occupied patch ratios occurred due to a fire event that killed the parasites without, however, killing the host trees. The greatest mortality of V. thyrsoidea occurred in the area without fire. In this area, all the dead trees supported mistletoe individuals and no mortality was observed for parasite-free trees. Because P. robustus is a fire sensitive species and V. thyrsoidea is fire tolerant, P. robustus seems to increase host mortality, but its effect is lessened by periodic burning that reduces the parasite loads.

  11. Metapopulation effective size and conservation genetic goals for the Fennoscandian wolf (Canis lupus) population

    PubMed Central

    Laikre, L; Olsson, F; Jansson, E; Hössjer, O; Ryman, N

    2016-01-01

    The Scandinavian wolf population descends from only five individuals, is isolated, highly inbred and exhibits inbreeding depression. To meet international conservation goals, suggestions include managing subdivided wolf populations over Fennoscandia as a metapopulation; a genetically effective population size of Ne⩾500, in line with the widely accepted long-term genetic viability target, might be attainable with gene flow among subpopulations of Scandinavia, Finland and Russian parts of Fennoscandia. Analytical means for modeling Ne of subdivided populations under such non-idealized situations have been missing, but we recently developed new mathematical methods for exploring inbreeding dynamics and effective population size of complex metapopulations. We apply this theory to the Fennoscandian wolves using empirical estimates of demographic parameters. We suggest that the long-term conservation genetic target for metapopulations should imply that inbreeding rates in the total system and in the separate subpopulations should not exceed Δf=0.001. This implies a meta-Ne of NeMeta⩾500 and a realized effective size of each subpopulation of NeRx⩾500. With current local effective population sizes and one migrant per generation, as recommended by management guidelines, the meta-Ne that can be reached is ~250. Unidirectional gene flow from Finland to Scandinavia reduces meta-Ne to ~130. Our results indicate that both local subpopulation effective sizes and migration among subpopulations must increase substantially from current levels to meet the conservation target. Alternatively, immigration from a large (Ne⩾500) population in northwestern Russia could support the Fennoscandian metapopulation, but immigration must be substantial (5–10 effective immigrants per generation) and migration among Fennoscandian subpopulations must nevertheless increase. PMID:27328654

  12. Human-facilitated metapopulation dynamics in an emerging pest species, Cimex lectularius

    PubMed Central

    FOUNTAIN, TOBY; DUVAUX, LUDOVIC; HORSBURGH, GAVIN; REINHARDT, KLAUS; BUTLIN, ROGER K

    2014-01-01

    The number and demographic history of colonists can have dramatic consequences for the way in which genetic diversity is distributed and maintained in a metapopulation. The bed bug (Cimex lectularius) is a re-emerging pest species whose close association with humans has led to frequent local extinction and colonization, that is, to metapopulation dynamics. Pest control limits the lifespan of subpopulations, causing frequent local extinctions, and human-facilitated dispersal allows the colonization of empty patches. Founder events often result in drastic reductions in diversity and an increased influence of genetic drift. Coupled with restricted migration, this can lead to rapid population differentiation. We therefore predicted strong population structuring. Here, using 21 newly characterized microsatellite markers and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we investigate simplified versions of two classical models of metapopulation dynamics, in a coalescent framework, to estimate the number and genetic composition of founders in the common bed bug. We found very limited diversity within infestations but high degrees of structuring across the city of London, with extreme levels of genetic differentiation between infestations (FST = 0.59). ABC results suggest a common origin of all founders of a given subpopulation and that the numbers of colonists were low, implying that even a single mated female is enough to found a new infestation successfully. These patterns of colonization are close to the predictions of the propagule pool model, where all founders originate from the same parental infestation. These results show that aspects of metapopulation dynamics can be captured in simple models and provide insights that are valuable for the future targeted control of bed bug infestations. PMID:24446663

  13. Human-facilitated metapopulation dynamics in an emerging pest species, Cimex lectularius.

    PubMed

    Fountain, Toby; Duvaux, Ludovic; Horsburgh, Gavin; Reinhardt, Klaus; Butlin, Roger K

    2014-03-01

    The number and demographic history of colonists can have dramatic consequences for the way in which genetic diversity is distributed and maintained in a metapopulation. The bed bug (Cimex lectularius) is a re-emerging pest species whose close association with humans has led to frequent local extinction and colonization, that is, to metapopulation dynamics. Pest control limits the lifespan of subpopulations, causing frequent local extinctions, and human-facilitated dispersal allows the colonization of empty patches. Founder events often result in drastic reductions in diversity and an increased influence of genetic drift. Coupled with restricted migration, this can lead to rapid population differentiation. We therefore predicted strong population structuring. Here, using 21 newly characterized microsatellite markers and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we investigate simplified versions of two classical models of metapopulation dynamics, in a coalescent framework, to estimate the number and genetic composition of founders in the common bed bug. We found very limited diversity within infestations but high degrees of structuring across the city of London, with extreme levels of genetic differentiation between infestations (FST  = 0.59). ABC results suggest a common origin of all founders of a given subpopulation and that the numbers of colonists were low, implying that even a single mated female is enough to found a new infestation successfully. These patterns of colonization are close to the predictions of the propagule pool model, where all founders originate from the same parental infestation. These results show that aspects of metapopulation dynamics can be captured in simple models and provide insights that are valuable for the future targeted control of bed bug infestations.

  14. Developing metapopulation connectivity criteria from genetic and habitat data to recover the endangered Mexican wolf.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Carlos; Fredrickson, Richard J; Lacy, Robert C

    2014-02-01

    Restoring connectivity between fragmented populations is an important tool for alleviating genetic threats to endangered species. Yet recovery plans typically lack quantitative criteria for ensuring such population connectivity. We demonstrate how models that integrate habitat, genetic, and demographic data can be used to develop connectivity criteria for the endangered Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi), which is currently being restored to the wild from a captive population descended from 7 founders. We used population viability analysis that incorporated pedigree data to evaluate the relation between connectivity and persistence for a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation of 3 populations of equal size. Decreasing dispersal rates greatly increased extinction risk for small populations (<150-200), especially as dispersal rates dropped below 0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation. We compared observed migration rates in the Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM) wolf metapopulation to 2 habitat-based effective distance metrics, least-cost and resistance distance. We then used effective distance between potential primary core populations in a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation to evaluate potential dispersal rates. Although potential connectivity was lower in the Mexican wolf versus the NRM wolf metapopulation, a connectivity rate of >0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation may be achievable via natural dispersal under current landscape conditions. When sufficient data are available, these methods allow planners to move beyond general aspirational connectivity goals or rules of thumb to develop objective and measurable connectivity criteria that more effectively support species recovery. The shift from simple connectivity rules of thumb to species-specific analyses parallels the previous shift from general minimum-viable-population thresholds to detailed viability modeling in endangered species recovery planning.

  15. Metapopulation effective size and conservation genetic goals for the Fennoscandian wolf (Canis lupus) population.

    PubMed

    Laikre, L; Olsson, F; Jansson, E; Hössjer, O; Ryman, N

    2016-10-01

    The Scandinavian wolf population descends from only five individuals, is isolated, highly inbred and exhibits inbreeding depression. To meet international conservation goals, suggestions include managing subdivided wolf populations over Fennoscandia as a metapopulation; a genetically effective population size of Ne⩾500, in line with the widely accepted long-term genetic viability target, might be attainable with gene flow among subpopulations of Scandinavia, Finland and Russian parts of Fennoscandia. Analytical means for modeling Ne of subdivided populations under such non-idealized situations have been missing, but we recently developed new mathematical methods for exploring inbreeding dynamics and effective population size of complex metapopulations. We apply this theory to the Fennoscandian wolves using empirical estimates of demographic parameters. We suggest that the long-term conservation genetic target for metapopulations should imply that inbreeding rates in the total system and in the separate subpopulations should not exceed Δf=0.001. This implies a meta-Ne of NeMeta⩾500 and a realized effective size of each subpopulation of NeRx⩾500. With current local effective population sizes and one migrant per generation, as recommended by management guidelines, the meta-Ne that can be reached is ~250. Unidirectional gene flow from Finland to Scandinavia reduces meta-Ne to ~130. Our results indicate that both local subpopulation effective sizes and migration among subpopulations must increase substantially from current levels to meet the conservation target. Alternatively, immigration from a large (Ne⩾500) population in northwestern Russia could support the Fennoscandian metapopulation, but immigration must be substantial (5-10 effective immigrants per generation) and migration among Fennoscandian subpopulations must nevertheless increase.

  16. Metapopulation Dynamics of the Mistletoe and Its Host in Savanna Areas with Different Fire Occurrence

    PubMed Central

    Teodoro, Grazielle Sales; van den Berg, Eduardo; Arruda, Rafael

    2013-01-01

    Mistletoes are aerial hemiparasitic plants which occupy patches of favorable habitat (host trees) surrounded by unfavorable habitat and may be possibly modeled as a metapopulation. A metapopulation is defined as a subdivided population that persists due to the balance between colonization and extinction in discrete habitat patches. Our aim was to evaluate the dynamics of the mistletoe Psittacanthus robustus and its host Vochysia thyrsoidea in three Brazilian savanna areas using a metapopulation approach. We also evaluated how the differences in terms of fire occurrence affected the dynamic of those populations (two areas burned during the study and one was fire protected). We monitored the populations at six-month intervals. P. robustus population structure and dynamics met the expected criteria for a metapopulation: i) the suitable habitats for the mistletoe occur in discrete patches; (ii) local populations went extinct during the study and (iii) colonization of previously non-occupied patches occurred. The ratio of occupied patches decreased in all areas with time. Local mistletoe populations went extinct due to two different causes: patch extinction in area with no fire and fire killing in the burned areas. In a burned area, the largest decrease of occupied patch ratios occurred due to a fire event that killed the parasites without, however, killing the host trees. The greatest mortality of V. thyrsoidea occurred in the area without fire. In this area, all the dead trees supported mistletoe individuals and no mortality was observed for parasite-free trees. Because P. robustus is a fire sensitive species and V. thyrsoidea is fire tolerant, P. robustus seems to increase host mortality, but its effect is lessened by periodic burning that reduces the parasite loads. PMID:23776554

  17. Extirpation and recolonization in a metapopulation of an endangered fish, the tidewater goby

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lafferty, K.D.; Swift, C.C.; Ambrose, R.F.

    1999-01-01

    The tidewater goby (Eucyclogobius newberryi), an endangered species in the United States, occurs in a series of isolated coastal wetlands in California. Using historical presence-absence data and our own surveys, we estimated annual rates of extirpation and recolonization for several populations of the goby in southern California. As predicted, large wetlands had lower rates of extirpation than small wetlands. There was a negative but statistically nonsignificant correlation between recolonization rate and distance to the nearest northerly source population. Populations at small sites were sensitive to drought, presumably because droughts can eliminate suitable habitat at small wetlands. Populations in small wetlands have declined over time, even after accounting for variation in stream flow, supporting the species' endangered status. Our study emphasizes the need to understand metapopulation dynamics for conserving species where the unit of conservation is a local population. It is also emphasizes the importance of not treating metapopulations as identical units. Finally, our results provide a means for describing the decline of a species that is complex in time and space and provide insight into how to target protection measures among metapopulations.

  18. What Should Be Explicit in Explicit Grammar Instruction?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nagai, Noriko; Ayano, Seiki; Okada, Keiko; Nakanishi, Takayuki

    2015-01-01

    This article proposes an approach to explicit grammar instruction that seeks to develop metalinguistic knowledge of the L2 and raise L2 learners' awareness of their L1, which is crucial for the success of second language acquisition (Ellis 1997, 2002). If explicit instruction is more effective than implicit instruction (Norris and Ortega 2000),…

  19. Multilevel Selection and Neighbourhood Effects from Individual to Metapopulation in a Wild Passerine

    PubMed Central

    Laiolo, Paola; Obeso, José Ramón

    2012-01-01

    Multilevel selection has rarely been studied in the ecological context of animal populations, in which neighbourhood effects range from competition among territorial neighbours to source-sink effects among local populations. By studying a Dupont’s lark Chersophilus duponti metapopulation, we analyze neighbourhood effects mediated by song repertoires on fitness components at the individual level (life-span) and population level (growth rate). As a sexual/aggressive signal with strong effects on fitness, birdsong creates an opportunity for group selection via neighbour interactions, but may also have population-wide effects by conveying information on habitat suitability to dispersing individuals. Within populations, we found a disruptive pattern of selection at the individual level and an opposite, stabilizing pattern at the group level. Males singing the most complex songs had the longest life-span, but individuals with the poorest repertoires lived longer than ‘average’ males, a finding that likely reflects two male strategies with respect to fitness and sexual trait expression. Individuals from groups with intermediate repertoires had the longest life-span, likely benefitting from conspecific signalling to attract females up to the detrimental spread of competitive interactions in groups with superior vocal skills. Within the metapopulation selection was directional but again followed opposite patterns at the two levels: Populations had the highest growth rate when inhabiting local patches with complex repertoires surrounded by patches with simple repertoires. Here the song may impact metapopulation dynamics by guiding prospecting individuals towards populations advertising habitat quality. Two fitness components linked to viability were therefore influenced by the properties of the group, and birdsong was the target of selection, contributing to linking social/sexual processes at the local scale with regional population dynamics. PMID:22745665

  20. Reaction-diffusion processes and metapopulation models on duplex networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xuan, Qi; Du, Fang; Yu, Li; Chen, Guanrong

    2013-03-01

    Reaction-diffusion processes, used to model various spatially distributed dynamics such as epidemics, have been studied mostly on regular lattices or complex networks with simplex links that are identical and invariant in transferring different kinds of particles. However, in many self-organized systems, different particles may have their own private channels to keep their purities. Such division of links often significantly influences the underlying reaction-diffusion dynamics and thus needs to be carefully investigated. This article studies a special reaction-diffusion process, named susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) dynamics, given by the reaction steps β→α and α+β→2β, on duplex networks where links are classified into two groups: α and β links used to transfer α and β particles, which, along with the corresponding nodes, consist of an α subnetwork and a β subnetwork, respectively. It is found that the critical point of particle density to sustain reaction activity is independent of the network topology if there is no correlation between the degree sequences of the two subnetworks, and this critical value is suppressed or extended if the two degree sequences are positively or negatively correlated, respectively. Based on the obtained results, it is predicted that epidemic spreading may be promoted on positive correlated traffic networks but may be suppressed on networks with modules composed of different types of diffusion links.

  1. The Explicit Teaching of Reading.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hancock, Joelie, Ed.

    Exploring the explicit teaching of reading, this book is the result of a group of Australian teachers who took a closer look at their teaching so that they could be clearer to their kindergarten through middle-school students. Chapter 1 is based on a presentation at a Saturday inservice program on explicit teaching. Chapters 2-9 were written by…

  2. Decomposed pairwise regression analysis of genetic and geographic distances reveals a metapopulation structure of stream-dwelling Dolly Varden charr.

    PubMed

    Koizumi, Itsuro; Yamamoto, Shoichiro; Maekawa, Koji

    2006-10-01

    Isolation by distance is usually tested by the correlation of genetic and geographic distances separating all pairwise populations' combinations. However, this method can be significantly biased by only a few highly diverged populations and lose the information of individual population. To detect outlier populations and investigate the relative strengths of gene flow and genetic drift for each population, we propose a decomposed pairwise regression analysis. This analysis was applied to the well-described one-dimensional stepping-stone system of stream-dwelling Dolly Varden charr (Salvelinus malma). When genetic and geographic distances were plotted for all pairs of 17 tributary populations, the correlation was significant but weak (r(2) = 0.184). Seven outlier populations were determined based on the systematic bias of the regression residuals, followed by Akaike's information criteria. The best model, 10 populations included, showed a strong pattern of isolation by distance (r(2) = 0.758), suggesting equilibrium between gene flow and genetic drift in these populations. Each outlier population was also analysed by plotting pairwise genetic and geographic distances against the 10 nonoutlier populations, and categorized into one of the three patterns: strong genetic drift, genetic drift with a limited gene flow and a high level of gene flow. These classifications were generally consistent with a priori predictions for each population (physical barrier, population size, anthropogenic impacts). Combined the genetic analysis with field observations, Dolly Varden in this river appeared to form a mainland-island or source-sink metapopulation structure. The generality of the method will merit many types of spatial genetic analyses.

  3. Spatial ecology goes to space: Metabiospheres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendonça, Milton de Souza

    2014-05-01

    Lithopanspermia is increasingly accepted as a possible mechanism for the exchange of organisms between planets. Meteoritic impacts on inhabited planets can generate ejecta reaching escape velocity, which could carry endolithic ecosystems from the deep biosphere into space. If the ejecta travel long and fast enough they could be captured by another planet. Organisms inside the rock might survive re-entry, reaching the planet lithosphere. These processes re-enact spatial ecology at an astronomical level, for example mirroring metapopulation ecology: empty (of life) and occupied patches (planets and large moons) are separated by an inadequate matrix (space), being colonised (turned into biospheres) and perhaps suffering extinctions. As in metapopulations, we can predict this colonisation/extinction dynamics will lead to higher probabilities of life persisting longer times in a Solar System given adequate conditions. This system may be called a metabiosphere, and this ecological dynamics at an astronomical level astroecology, a new scientific branch mingling ecology and astrobiology.

  4. Long-Distance Rescue and Slow Extinction Dynamics Govern Multiscale Metapopulations.

    PubMed

    Huth, Géraldine; Haegeman, Bart; Pitard, Estelle; Munoz, François

    2015-10-01

    Rare long-distance dispersal is known to be critical for species dynamics, but how the interplay between short- and long-distance colonization influences regional persistence in a fragmented habitat remains poorly understood. We propose a metapopulation model that combines local colonization within habitat islands and long-distance colonization between islands. We study how regional occupancy dynamics are affected by the multiscale colonization process. We find that the island size distribution (ISD) is a key driver of the long-term occupancy dynamics. When the ISD is heterogeneous-that is, when the size of islands is variable-we show that extinction dynamics become very slow. We demonstrate that this behavior is unrelated to the well-known extinction debt near the critical extinction threshold. Hence, this finding questions the equivalence between extinction debt and critical transitions in the context of metapopulation collapse. Furthermore, we show that long-distance colonization can rescue small islands from extinction and sustain a steady regional occupancy. These results provide novel theoretical and practical insights into extinction dynamics and persistence in fragmented habitats and are thus relevant for the design of conservation strategies.

  5. Genetic diversity and connectivity of deep-sea hydrothermal vent metapopulations.

    PubMed

    Vrijenhoek, Robert C

    2010-10-01

    Deep-sea hydrothermal vents provide ephemeral habitats for animal communities that depend on chemosynthetic primary production. Sporadic volcanic and tectonic events destroy local vent fields and create new ones. Ongoing dispersal and cycles of extirpation and colonization affect the levels and distribution of genetic diversity in vent metapopulations. Several species exhibit evidence for stepping-stone dispersal along relatively linear, oceanic, ridge axes. Other species exhibit very high rates of gene flow, although natural barriers associated with variation in depth, deep-ocean currents, and lateral offsets of ridge axes often subdivide populations. Various degrees of impedance to dispersal across such boundaries are products of species-specific life histories and behaviours. Though unrelated to the size of a species range, levels of genetic diversity appear to correspond with the number of active vent localities that a species occupies within its range. Pioneer species that rapidly colonize nascent vents tend to be less subdivided and more diverse genetically than species that are slow to establish colonies at vents. Understanding the diversity and connectivity of vent metapopulations provides essential information for designing deep-sea preserves in regions that are under consideration for submarine mining of precious metals.

  6. Size of the California Brown Pelican Metapopulation During a Non-El Nino Year

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, Daniel W.; Henny, Charles J.; Godinez-Reyes, Carlos; Gress, Franklin; Palacios, Eduardo L.; Santos del Prado, Karina; Bredy, James

    2007-01-01

    Overall, we estimated a total metapopulation within the geographical range of the California brown pelican subspecies (Pelecanus occidentalis californicus) as about 70,680 ? 2,640 breeding pairs (mean ? SD). Little change in at least three decades is indicated in the total metapopulation south of the Southern California Bight (SCB) subpopulation, but significant improvements in the breeding subpopulation size in the SCB reported elsewhere, support the present high numbers observed in this northernmost subpopulation. The largest breeding aggregation within the entire range (consisting of three immediately adjacent sub-colonies), at the San Lorenzo Archipelago, consisted of about 17,225 breeding pairs, or about 24.4% of the metapopulation in 2006. Other, smaller colonies are no less important, however, although each subpopulation defined by us seemed to have a single or small number of large 'core' breeding colonies, plus many smaller colonies (for example, in 2006, one colony consisted of only 2 breeding pairs). Small colonies (< about 70 nests) comprised about 35.6% of the total occupied colonies, but only about 0.87% of the total estimated numbers (values corrected for detectability). The modal colony-size throughout the range was much smaller (about 230 to 1,300 breeding pairs, depending on subpopulation), indicating that small, scattered colonies and sub-colonies, especially on the range peripheries, function in brown pelican population dynamics and are no less important from a conservation viewpoint. These smaller breeding colonies probably represent some colonies of antiquity, but also range expansions and contractions that occur within the typically-defined metapopulation, and local manifestations of source-sink phenomena. Given such dynamics, even unoccupied islands within the range in 2006 have conservation importance from the viewpoint of such dynamics as potential alternate nesting sites. Natural variations in the estimated population levels seem to be

  7. Explicit Substitutions and All That

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ayala-Rincon, Mauricio; Munoz, Cesar; Busnell, Dennis M. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Explicit substitution calculi are extensions of the Lambda-calculus where the substitution mechanism is internalized into the theory. This feature makes them suitable for implementation and theoretical study of logic-based tools such as strongly typed programming languages and proof assistant systems. In this paper we explore new developments on two of the most successful styles of explicit substitution calculi: the lambda(sigma)- and lambda(s(e))-calculi.

  8. Explicit Substitutions and All That

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ayala-Rincon, Mauricio; Munoz, Cesar

    2000-01-01

    Explicit substitution calculi are extensions of the lambda-calculus where the substitution mechanism is internalized into the theory. This feature makes them suitable for implementation and theoretical study of logic-based tools such as strongly typed programming languages and proof assistant systems. In this paper we explore new developments on two of the most successful styles of explicit substitution calculi: the lambda sigma- and lambda S(e)-calculi.

  9. METAPOPULATION PROCESSES OF INFINITE DISPERSAL: HABITAT PATCH OCCUPANCY BY TOADS (BUFO PUNCTATUS) IN A NATURALLY FRAGMENTED DESERT LANDSCAPE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Amphibians are often thought to have a metapopulation structure, which may render them vulnerable to habitat fragmentation. The red-spotted toad (Bufo punctatus) in the southwestern USA and Mexico commonly inhabits wetlands that have become much smaller and fewer since the late P...

  10. METAPOPULATION PROCESSES OR INFINITE DISPERSAL?: HABITAT PATCH OCCUPANCY BY TOADS (BUFO PUNCTATUS) IN A NATURALLY FRAGMENTED DESERT LANDSCAPE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Amphibians are often thought to have a metapopulation structure, which may render them vulnerable to habitat fragmentation. The red-spotted toad (Bufo punctatus) in the southwestern USA and Mexico commonly inhabits wetlands that have become much smaller and fewer since the late P...

  11. METAPOPULATION PROCESSES OR INFINITE DISPERSAL?: HABITAT PATCH OCCUPANCY BY TOADS (BUFO PUNCTATUS) IN A NAUTRALLY FRAGMENTED DESERT LANDSCAPE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Amphibians are often thought to have a metapopulation structure, which may render them vulnerable to habitat fragmentation. The red-spotted toad (Bufo punctatus) in the southwestern USA and Mexico commonly inhabits wetlands that have become much smaller and fewer since the late P...

  12. METAPOPULATION PROCESSES OF INFINITE DISPERSAL?: HABITAT PATCH OCCUPANCY BY TOADS (BUFO PUNCTATUS) IN A NATURALLY FRAGMENTED DESERT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Amphibians are often thought to have a metapopulation structure, which may render them vulnerable to habitat fragmentation. The red-spotted toad (Bufo punctatus) in the southwestern USA and Mexico commonly inhabits wetlands that have become much smaller and fewer since the late P...

  13. Matrix matters: differences of grand skink metapopulation parameters in native tussock grasslands and exotic pasture grasslands.

    PubMed

    Gebauer, Konstanze; Dickinson, Katharine J M; Whigham, Peter A; Seddon, Philip J

    2013-01-01

    Modelling metapopulation dynamics is a potentially very powerful tool for conservation biologists. In recent years, scientists have broadened the range of variables incorporated into metapopulation modelling from using almost exclusively habitat patch size and isolation, to the inclusion of attributes of the matrix and habitat patch quality. We investigated the influence of habitat patch and matrix characteristics on the metapopulation parameters of a highly endangered lizard species, the New Zealand endemic grand skink (Oligosoma grande) taking into account incomplete detectability. The predictive ability of the developed zxmetapopulation model was assessed through cross-validation of the data and with an independent data-set. Grand skinks occur on scattered rock-outcrops surrounded by indigenous tussock (bunch) and pasture grasslands therefore implying a metapopulation structure. We found that the type of matrix surrounding the habitat patch was equally as important as the size of habitat patch for estimating occupancy, colonisation and extinction probabilities. Additionally, the type of matrix was more important than the physical distance between habitat patches for colonisation probabilities. Detection probability differed between habitat patches in the two matrix types and between habitat patches with different attributes such as habitat patch composition and abundance of vegetation on the outcrop. The developed metapopulation models can now be used for management decisions on area protection, monitoring, and the selection of translocation sites for the grand skink. Our study showed that it is important to incorporate not only habitat patch size and distance between habitat patches, but also those matrix type and habitat patch attributes which are vital in the ecology of the target species.

  14. Matrix Matters: Differences of Grand Skink Metapopulation Parameters in Native Tussock Grasslands and Exotic Pasture Grasslands

    PubMed Central

    Gebauer, Konstanze; Dickinson, Katharine J. M.; Whigham, Peter A.; Seddon, Philip J.

    2013-01-01

    Modelling metapopulation dynamics is a potentially very powerful tool for conservation biologists. In recent years, scientists have broadened the range of variables incorporated into metapopulation modelling from using almost exclusively habitat patch size and isolation, to the inclusion of attributes of the matrix and habitat patch quality. We investigated the influence of habitat patch and matrix characteristics on the metapopulation parameters of a highly endangered lizard species, the New Zealand endemic grand skink (Oligosoma grande) taking into account incomplete detectability. The predictive ability of the developed zxmetapopulation model was assessed through cross-validation of the data and with an independent data-set. Grand skinks occur on scattered rock-outcrops surrounded by indigenous tussock (bunch) and pasture grasslands therefore implying a metapopulation structure. We found that the type of matrix surrounding the habitat patch was equally as important as the size of habitat patch for estimating occupancy, colonisation and extinction probabilities. Additionally, the type of matrix was more important than the physical distance between habitat patches for colonisation probabilities. Detection probability differed between habitat patches in the two matrix types and between habitat patches with different attributes such as habitat patch composition and abundance of vegetation on the outcrop. The developed metapopulation models can now be used for management decisions on area protection, monitoring, and the selection of translocation sites for the grand skink. Our study showed that it is important to incorporate not only habitat patch size and distance between habitat patches, but also those matrix type and habitat patch attributes which are vital in the ecology of the target species. PMID:24098423

  15. Accumulative response of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) to heavy metals enhanced by Pb-Zn ore mining and processing plants: Explicitly spatial considerations of ordinary kriging based on a GIS approach.

    PubMed

    Pająk, Marek; Halecki, Wiktor; Gąsiorek, Michał

    2017-02-01

    Plants have an accumulative response to heavy metals present in soils or deposited from airborne sources of emissions. Therefore, their tissues are very often used in studies of heavy metal contamination originating from different sources as a bioindicator of environmental pollution. This research was undertaken to examine accumulation capacities of Pb, Zn, Cd, Cu and Cr in washed and unwashed needles of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and leaves of silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) growing in a contaminated area. We collected needles of Scots pine and leaves of silver birch in an area around a sedimentation pond and metallurgic plant processing Pb and Zn ores near Olkusz, Poland. Concentrations of heavy metals, which have been linked with exposure to emissions, were determined from foliar samples collected at 33 sites. These sites were established at various distances (0.5-3.6 km) from the pond and metallurgic plant so as to identify the predominant accumulative response of plants. Spatial gradients for Pb and Zn were calculated using an ordinary kriging interpolation algorithm. A spatial pattern was identified by a GIS method to visualize maps over the Pb-Zn ore mining area. The accumulation of Zn (R(2) = 0.74, p < 0.05) and Pb (R(2) = 0.85, p < 0.01) in plant tissues correlated with soil concentrations. This tendency was not found in the case of Cu, Cd and Cr.

  16. Impact of density-dependent migration flows on epidemic outbreaks in heterogeneous metapopulations.

    PubMed

    Ripoll, J; Avinyó, A; Pellicer, M; Saldaña, J

    2015-08-01

    We investigate the role of migration patterns on the spread of epidemics in complex networks. We enhance the SIS-diffusion model on metapopulations to a nonlinear diffusion. Specifically, individuals move randomly over the network but at a rate depending on the population of the departure patch. In the absence of epidemics, the migration-driven equilibrium is described by quantifying the total number of individuals living in heavily or lightly populated areas. Our analytical approach reveals that strengthening the migration from populous areas contains the infection at the early stage of the epidemic. Moreover, depending on the exponent of the nonlinear diffusion rate, epidemic outbreaks do not always occur in the most populated areas as one might expect.

  17. Fire and Fish: Using Radiocarbon And Stratigraphy To Discern The Impact Of Wildfire On Fish Metapopulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaffrath, K. R.; Finch, C.; Belmont, P.; Budy, P.

    2015-12-01

    Wildfires have profound and variable impacts on erosion, channel morphology, and aquatic habitat. Previous research has quantified post-fire geomorphic response on event and millennial timescales. While these studies have informed our understanding of post-fire geomorphic response during the Holocene, we have yet to fully understand the variability of post-wildfire geomorphic response and how it might change in response to changing climate. Response of aquatic biota is just as variable as post-wildfire response yet we know very little about effects on metapopulations and how management decisions affect aquatic populations. Barriers to movement are installed to isolate native fish populations and prescribed fire and thinning are used to try to reduce future wildfire severity and extent. In order to improve understanding of the implications of management decisions, we evaluated geomorphic response and synchronicity of wildfires over the Holocene relative to the impact to the metapopulation of Bonneville cutthroat trout from a recent wildfire. The Twitchell Canyon fire burned 45,000 acres near Beaver, UT in July 2010. Over 30% of the area burned at high severity, which included two major headwater streams that sustained a trout population. In summer 2011, monsoonal thunderstorms caused massive debris flows and sheetflow erosion that altered channel morphology and aquatic habitat in the burned area. A previously robust, non-native trout fishery was nearly extirpated as a result of the geomorphic response to the wildfire. We used radiocarbon dating of burned material to determine how often headwater streams burned synchronously over the Holocene. Radiocarbon dates are associated with field observations of stratigraphy in order to infer geomorphic response to historic wildfires. Thirty samples were collected from sediment layers in 10 alluvial fans distributed among three watersheds (two burned and one unburned in the 2010 fire). Preliminary results suggest that we

  18. Puerto Rican parrots and potential limitations of the metapopulation approach to species conservation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilson, Marcia H.; Kepler, Cameron B.; Snyder, Noel F.R.; Derrickson, Scott R.; Dein, F. Josh; Wiley, James W.; Wunderle, Joseph M.; Lugo, Ariel E.; Graham, David L.; Toone, William D.

    1994-01-01

    Population viability analyses for a number of endangered species have incorporated a metapopulation approach. The risk assessments of these viability analyses have indicated that some extant populations should be subdivided into numerous subgroups with exchange of individuals among them in order to reduce the chance of catastrophic loss of the species. However, routine application of a policy of extensive subdivision may have detrimental consequences for certain endangered species. We examine the Puerto Rican Parrot as a case history in which this policy is ill-advised. In 1989, a population viability analysis was conducted for the parrot. The document recommended subdivision of the existing small captive flock into three groups. One of these captive flocks would consist of individuals transferred to a multi-species facility in the continental United States. Subsequently, individuals from this facility would be exchanged with the insular captive population(s) and the relict wild flock. For two reasons, implementation of this recommendation might have led to serious repercussions. First, this parrot, like many endangered species, has gone through a genetic bottleneck and may have a heightened susceptibility to disease. Multi-species facilities are a high-risk environment favoring the transmission of pathogens, especially when the facilities are located outside the natural ranges of a particular species. Second, the parrot is a K-selected species for which mate selection is idiosyncratic. This type of species often proves difficult to breed in captivity in small groups. Part of the problem in mate selection may be reduced by a policy allowing frequent transfers of individuals among facilities, but such movements increase the chances of spreading disease in the metapopulation. Thus, population viability analyses need to acknowledge that proliferation of captive subgroups accompanied by exchanges of individuals can in themselves carry substantial risks that must be

  19. Metapopulation viability of an endangered shorebird depends on dispersal and human-created habitats: Piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) and prairie rivers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Catlin, Daniel H.; Zeigler, Sara; Bomberger Brown, M.; Dinan, Lauren R.; Frasera, James D.; Hunt, Kelsi L.; Jorgensen, Joel G.

    2016-01-01

    We found that functional connectivity, as measured by the rate of dispersal among subpopulations, increased as a result of the high flow event in our study metapopulation. Plovers also increased reproductive output following this event. Although the study metapopulation had a low overall probability of extinction, metapopulation persistence depended on anthropogenically created habitats that provided a small but stable source of nesting habitat and dispersers through time. However, all subpopulations remained small, even if persistent, making them individually vulnerable to extinction through stochastic events. Given the highly dynamic nature of habitat availability in this system, maintaining several subpopulations within the metapopulation and stable sources of habitat will be critical, and this species will likely remain conservation-reliant.

  20. EVALUATING EFFECTS OF LOW QUALITY HABITATS ON REGIONAL GROWTH IN PEOMYCUS LEUCOPUS: INSIGHTS FROM FIELD-PARAMETERIZED SPATIAL MATRIX MODELS.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Due to complex population dynamics and source-sink metapopulation processes, animal fitness sometimes varies across landscapes in ways that cannot be deduced from simple density patterns. In this study, we examine spatial patterns in fitness using a combination of intensive fiel...

  1. Distribution of two species of sea snakes, Aipysurus laevis and Emydocephalus annulatus, in the southern Great Barrier Reef: metapopulation dynamics, marine protected areas and conservation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lukoschek, V.; Heatwole, H.; Grech, A.; Burns, G.; Marsh, H.

    2007-06-01

    Aipysurus laevis and Emydocephalus annulatus typically occur in spatially discrete populations, characteristic of metapopulations; however, little is known about the factors influencing the spatial and temporal stability of populations or whether specific conservation strategies, such as networks of marine protected areas, will ensure the persistence of species. Classification tree analyses of 35 years of distribution data (90 reefs, surveyed 1-11 times) in the southern Great Barrier Reef (GBR) revealed that longitude was a major factor determining the status of A. laevis on reefs (present = 38, absent = 38 and changed = 14). Reef exposure and reef area were also important; however, these factors did not specifically account for the population fluctuations and the recent local extinctions of A. laevis in this region. There were no relationships between the status of E. annulatus (present = 16, absent = 68 and changed = 6) and spatial or physical variables. Moreover, prior protection status of reefs did not account for the distribution of either species. Biotic factors, such as habitat and prey availability and the distribution of predators, which may account for the observed patterns of distribution, are discussed. The potential for inter-population exchange among sea snake populations is poorly understood, as is the degree of protection that will be afforded to sea snakes by the recently implemented network of No-take areas in the GBR. Data from this study provide a baseline for evaluating the responses of A. laevis and E. annulatus populations to changes in biotic factors and the degree of protection afforded on reefs within an ecosystem network of No-take marine protected areas in the southern GBR.

  2. Evaluating Effects of Pump-Storage Water Withdrawals Using an Individual-Based Metapopulation Model of a Benthic Fish Species

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-04-01

    maintaining ab- undance of a native fish species, the Turquoise darter (Etheostoma inscriptum). We developed and applied an individual-based...based metapopulation model for assessing the effects of water withdrawals on a flow-dependent species, the Turquoise darter (Etheostoma inscriptum...withdrawal strategy for a municipal pump-storage reservoir and the status of the Turquoise darter over a 20-year period in the Middle Oco- nee River near

  3. Contemporary effective population and metapopulation size (Ne and meta-Ne): comparison among three salmonids inhabiting a fragmented system and differing in gene flow and its asymmetries

    PubMed Central

    Gomez-Uchida, Daniel; Palstra, Friso P; Knight, Thomas W; Ruzzante, Daniel E

    2013-01-01

    We estimated local and metapopulation effective sizes ( and meta-) for three coexisting salmonid species (Salmo salar, Salvelinus fontinalis, Salvelinus alpinus) inhabiting a freshwater system comprising seven interconnected lakes. First, we hypothesized that might be inversely related to within-species population divergence as reported in an earlier study (i.e., FST: S. salar> S. fontinalis> S. alpinus). Using the approximate Bayesian computation method implemented in ONeSAMP, we found significant differences in () between species, consistent with a hierarchy of adult population sizes (). Using another method based on a measure of linkage disequilibrium (LDNE: ), we found more finite values for S. salar than for the other two salmonids, in line with the results above that indicate that S. salar exhibits the lowest among the three species. Considering subpopulations as open to migration (i.e., removing putative immigrants) led to only marginal and non-significant changes in , suggesting that migration may be at equilibrium between genetically similar sources. Second, we hypothesized that meta- might be significantly smaller than the sum of local s (null model) if gene flow is asymmetric, varies among subpopulations, and is driven by common landscape features such as waterfalls. One ‘bottom-up’ or numerical approach that explicitly incorporates variable and asymmetric migration rates showed this very pattern, while a number of analytical models provided meta- estimates that were not significantly different from the null model or from each other. Our study of three species inhabiting a shared environment highlights the importance and utility of differentiating species-specific and landscape effects, not only on dispersal but also in the demography of wild populations as assessed through local s and meta-s and their relevance in ecology, evolution and conservation. PMID:23532448

  4. Common molecular mechanisms in explicit and implicit memory.

    PubMed

    Barco, Angel; Bailey, Craig H; Kandel, Eric R

    2006-06-01

    Cellular and molecular studies of both implicit and explicit memory suggest that experience-dependent modulation of synaptic strength and structure is a fundamental mechanism by which these memories are encoded and stored within the brain. In this review, we focus on recent advances in our understanding of two types of memory storage: (i) sensitization in Aplysia, a simple form of implicit memory, and (ii) formation of explicit spatial memories in the mouse hippocampus. These two processes share common molecular mechanisms that have been highly conserved through evolution.

  5. Ecological context and metapopulation dynamics affect sex-ratio variation among dioecious plant populations

    PubMed Central

    Field, David L.; Pickup, Melinda; Barrett, Spencer C. H.

    2013-01-01

    Background and Aims Populations of dioecious flowering plants commonly exhibit heterogeneity in sex ratios and deviations from the equilibrium expectation of equal numbers of females and males. Yet the role of ecological and demographic factors in contributing towards biased sex ratios is currently not well understood. Methods Species-level studies from the literature were analysed to investigate ecological correlates of among-population sex-ratio variation and metapopulation models and empirical data were used to explore the influence of demography and non-equilibrium conditions on flowering sex ratios. Key Results The survey revealed significant among-population heterogeneity in sex ratios and this was related to the degree of sampling effort. For some species, sex-ratio bias was associated with the proportion of non-reproductive individuals, with greater male bias in populations with a lower proportion of individuals that were flowering. Male-biased ratios were also found at higher altitudes and latitudes, and in more xeric sites. Simulations and empirical data indicated that clonal species exhibited greater heterogeneity in sex ratios than non-clonal species as a result of their slower approach to equilibrium. The simulations also indicated the importance of interactions between reproductive mode and founder effects, with greater departures from equilibrium in clonal populations with fewer founding individuals. Conclusions The results indicate that sex-based differences in costs of reproduction and non-equilibrium conditions can each play important roles in affecting flowering sex ratios in populations of dioecious plants. PMID:23444124

  6. Natal and breeding philopatry in a black brant, Branta bernicla nigricans, metapopulation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lindberg, Mark S.; Sedinger, James S.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Rockwell, Robert F.

    1998-01-01

    We estimated natal and breeding philopatry and dispersal probabilities for a metapopulation of Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) based on observations of marked birds at six breeding colonies in Alaska, 1986–1994. Both adult females and males exhibited high (>0.90) probability of philopatry to breeding colonies. Probability of natal philopatry was significantly higher for females than males. Natal dispersal of males was recorded between every pair of colonies, whereas natal dispersal of females was observed between only half of the colony pairs. We suggest that female-biased philopatry was the result of timing of pair formation and characteristics of the mating system of brant, rather than factors related to inbreeding avoidance or optimal discrepancy. Probability of natal philopatry of females increased with age but declined with year of banding. Age-related increase in natal philopatry was positively related to higher breeding probability of older females. Declines in natal philopatry with year of banding corresponded negatively to a period of increasing population density; therefore, local population density may influence the probability of nonbreeding and gene flow among colonies.

  7. The ethnoecology of Caiçara metapopulations (Atlantic Forest, Brazil): ecological concepts and questions

    PubMed Central

    Begossi, Alpina

    2006-01-01

    The Atlantic Forest is represented on the coast of Brazil by approximately 7,5% of remnants, much of these concentrated on the country's SE coast. Within these southeastern remnants, we still find the coastal Caiçaras who descend from Native Indians and Portuguese Colonizers. The maintenance of such populations, and their existence in spite of the deforestation that occurred on the Atlantic Forest coast, deserves especial attention and analysis. In this study, I address, in particular, the Caiçaras who live on the coast of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro States, illustrating with examples of coastal inhabitants from other areas, such as Bahia State (NE coast) and of other forested areas (riverine caboclos of the Amazon). The major focus of this study, based on previous research, performed since 1986 in several populations or villages of the Atlantic Forest coast, is to understand the resilience of the Caiçaras, which is analyzed using ecological concepts, such as metapopulation, resilience and adaptive cycles. The Caiçara populations are located on islands (Búzios, Comprida, Grande, Ilhabela, Jaguanum, Gipóia) and on the coast (Bertioga, Puruba, Picinguaba, among others). Information gathered about the Caiçaras regarding the economic cycles of the local regions, along with ecological, historical and economic data available, are used to understand such resilience, and are complemented with comparative examples from the Brazilian Amazon and with variables such as the local restrictions imposed by environmental governmental agencies. PMID:17010204

  8. Asymmetric or diffusive co-evolution generates meta-populations in fig-fig wasp mutualisms.

    PubMed

    Wang, RuiWu; Yang, Yan; Wiggins, Natasha L

    2014-06-01

    Co-evolutionary theory assumes co-adapted characteristics are a positive response to counter those of another species, whereby co-evolved species reach an evolutionarily stable interaction through bilateral adaptation. However, evidence from the fig-fig wasp mutualistic system implies very different co-evolutionary selection mechanisms, due to the inherent conflict among interacted partners. Fig plants appear to have discriminatively enforced fig wasps to evolve "adaptation characteristics" that provide greater benefit to the fig, and fig wasps appear to have diversified their evolutionary strategies in response to discriminative enforcement by figs and competition among different fig wasp species. In what appears to be an asymmetric interaction, the prosperity of cooperative pollinating wasps should inevitably lead to population increases of parasitic individuals, thus resulting in localized extinctions of pollinating wasps. In response, the sanctioning of parasitic wasps by the fig should lead to a reduction in the parasitic wasp population. The meta-populations created by such asymmetric interactions may result in each population of coevolved species chaotically oscillated, temporally or evolutionarily.

  9. Genetic structure of cougar populations across the Wyoming basin: Metapopulation or megapopulation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, C.R.; Lindzey, F.G.; McDonald, D.B.

    2004-01-01

    We examined the genetic structure of 5 Wyoming cougar (Puma concolor) populations surrounding the Wyoming Basin, as well as a population from southwestern Colorado. When using 9 microsatellite DNA loci, observed heterozygosity was similar among populations (HO = 0.49-0.59) and intermediate to that of other large carnivores. Estimates of genetic structure (FST = 0.028, RST = 0.029) and number of migrants per generation (Nm) suggested high gene flow. Nm was lowest between distant populations and highest among adjacent populations. Examination of these data, plus Mantel test results of genetic versus geographic distance (P ??? 0.01), suggested both isolation by distance and an effect of habitat matrix. Bayesian assignment to population based on individual genotypes showed that cougars in this region were best described as a single panmictic population. Total effective population size for cougars in this region ranged from 1,797 to 4,532 depending on mutation model and analytical method used. Based on measures of gene flow, extinction risk in the near future appears low. We found no support for the existence of metapopulation structure among cougars in this region.

  10. Local persistence and extinction of plague in a metapopulation of great gerbil burrows, Kazakhstan.

    PubMed

    Schmid, B V; Jesse, M; Wilschut, L I; Viljugrein, H; Heesterbeek, J A P

    2012-12-01

    Speculation on how the bacterium Yersinia pestis re-emerges after years of absence in the Prebalkhash region in Kazakhstan has been ongoing for half a century, but the mechanism is still unclear. One of the theories is that plague persists in its reservoir host (the great gerbil) in so-called hotspots, i.e. small regions in which the conditions remain favourable for plague to persist during times where the conditions in the Prebalkhash region as a whole have become unfavourable for plague persistence. In this paper we use a metapopulation model that describes the dynamics of the great gerbil. With this model we study the minimum size of an individual hotspot and the combined size of multiple hotspots in the Prebalkhash region that would be required for Y. pestis to persist through an inter-epizootic period. We show that the combined area of hotspots required for plague persistence is so large that it would be unlikely to have been missed by existing plague surveillance. This suggests that persistence of plague in that region cannot solely be explained by the existence of hotspots, and therefore other hypotheses, such as survival in multiple host species, and persistence in fleas or in the soil should be considered as well.

  11. Metapopulation structure in the lagoon cockle Cerastoderma lamarcki in the northern Wadden Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reise, Karsten

    2002-11-01

    Benthic invertebrates in discontinuous inshore habitats and with short or no pelagic larval dispersal are likely to exhibit regional metapopulation dynamics with partially isolated local populations. Near the island of Sylt, the bivalve Cerastoderma (Cardium) lamarcki (Reeve, 1844, syn. in part with C. glaucum Bruguiére, 1789) was widespread in intertidal seagrass beds, coexisting with the sibling species C. edule (Linné, 1758). However, the last C. lamarcki in this habitat was found in 1980. At present the lagoon cockle is restricted to disjunct ditches, creeks and ponds within island salt marshes. There it differs in year-class structure between localities. Successful recruitment events did not coincide. At one locality, a period with regular recruitment was followed by 5 years of recruitment failure, resulting in an overaged population probably at the rim of extinction. In a nearby brackish pond, extinction was followed by recolonization 3 years later. Other lagoonal habitats which seem to be suitable are without cockles. It is speculated that small and isolated habitats occasionally receive colonizers by eggs and juveniles adhering to avian vectors.

  12. Metapopulation structure in the lagoon cockle Cerastoderma lamarcki in the northern Wadden Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reise, Karsten

    2003-01-01

    Benthic invertebrates in discontinuous inshore habitats and with short or no pelagic larval dispersal are likely to exhibit regional metapopulation dynamics with partially isolated local populations. Near the island of Sylt, the bivalve Cerastoderma (Cardium) lamarcki (Reeve, 1844, syn. in part with C. glaucum Bruguiére, 1789) was widespread in intertidal seagrass beds, coexisting with the sibling species C. edule (Linné, 1758). However, the last C. lamarcki in this habitat was found in 1980. At present the lagoon cockle is restricted to disjunct ditches, creeks and ponds within island salt marshes. There it differs in year-class structure between localities. Successful recruitment events did not coincide. At one locality, a period with regular recruitment was followed by 5 years of recruitment failure, resulting in an overaged population probably at the rim of extinction. In a nearby brackish pond, extinction was followed by recolonization 3 years later. Other lagoonal habitats which seem to be suitable are without cockles. It is speculated that small and isolated habitats occasionally receive colonizers by eggs and juveniles adhering to avian vectors.

  13. The genomic and physiological basis of life history variation in a butterfly metapopulation.

    PubMed

    Klepsatel, Peter; Flatt, Thomas

    2011-05-01

    Unravelling the mechanisms underlying variation in life history traits is of fundamental importance for our understanding of adaptation by natural selection. While progress has been made in mapping fitness-related phenotypes to genotypes, mainly in a handful of model organisms, functional genomic studies of life history adaptations are still in their infancy. In particular, despite a few notable exceptions, the genomic basis of life history variation in natural populations remains poorly understood. This is especially true for the genetic underpinnings of life history phenotypes subject to diversifying selection driven by ecological dynamics in patchy environments--as opposed to adaptations involving strong directional selection owing to major environmental changes, such as latitudinal gradients, extreme climatic events or transitions from salt to freshwater. In this issue of Molecular Ecology,Wheat et al. (2011) now make a significant leap forward by applying the tools of functional genomics to dispersal-related life history variation in a butterfly metapopulation. Using a combination of microarrays, quantitative PCR and physiological measurements, the authors uncover several metabolic and endocrine factors that likely contribute to the observed life history phenotypes. By identifying molecular candidate mechanisms of fitness variation maintained by dispersal dynamics in a heterogeneous environment,they also begin to address fascinating interactions between the levels of physiology, ecology and evolution.

  14. Estimating annual survival and movement rates of adults within a metapopulation of roseate terns

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Nisbet, I.C.T.; Hays, H.; Cormons, G.D.; Burger, J.; Safina, C.; Hines, J.E.; Gochfeld, M.

    1995-01-01

    Several multistratum capture-recapture models were used to test various hypotheses about possible geographic and temporal variation in survival, movement, and recapture/resighting probabilities of 2399 adult Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) color-banded from 1988 to 1992 at the sites of the four largest breeding colonies of this species in the northeastern USA. Linear-logistic ultrastructural models also were developed to investigate possible correlates of geographic variation in movement probabilities. Based on goodness-of-fit tests and comparisons of Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) values, the fully parameterized model (Model A) with time- and location-specific survival, movement, and capture probabilities, was selected as the most appropriate model for this metapopulation structure. With almost all movement accounted for, on average gt 90% of the surviving adults from each colony site returned to the same site the following year. Variations in movement probabilities were more closely associated with the identity of the destination colony site than with either the identity of the colony site of origin or the distance between colony sites. The average annual survival estimates (0.740.84) of terns from all four sites indicate a high rate of annual mortality relative to that of other species of marine birds.

  15. The ethnoecology of Caiçara metapopulations (Atlantic Forest, Brazil): ecological concepts and questions.

    PubMed

    Begossi, Alpina

    2006-09-29

    The Atlantic Forest is represented on the coast of Brazil by approximately 7.5% of remnants, much of these concentrated on the country's SE coast. Within these southeastern remnants, we still find the coastal Caiçaras who descend from Native Indians and Portuguese Colonizers. The maintenance of such populations, and their existence in spite of the deforestation that occurred on the Atlantic Forest coast, deserves special attention and analysis. In this study, I address, in particular, the Caiçaras who live on the coast of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro States, illustrating with examples of coastal inhabitants from other areas, such as Bahia State (NE coast) and of other forested areas (riverine caboclos of the Amazon). The major focus of this study, based on previous research, performed since 1986 in several populations or villages of the Atlantic Forest coast, is to understand the resilience of the Caiçaras, which is analyzed using ecological concepts, such as metapopulation, resilience and adaptive cycles. The Caiçara populations are located on islands (Búzios, Comprida, Grande, Ilhabela, Jaguanum, Gipóia) and on the coast (Bertioga, Puruba, Picinguaba, among others). Information gathered about the Caiçaras regarding the economic cycles of the local regions, along with ecological, historical and economic data available, are used to understand such resilience, and are complemented with comparative examples from the Brazilian Amazon and with variables such as the local restrictions imposed by environmental governmental agencies.

  16. Spatially Explicit Trends in the Global Conservation Status of Vertebrates

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues, Ana S. L.; Brooks, Thomas M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Chanson, Janice; Cox, Neil; Hoffmann, Michael; Stuart, Simon N.

    2014-01-01

    The world's governments have committed to preventing the extinction of threatened species and improving their conservation status by 2020. However, biodiversity is not evenly distributed across space, and neither are the drivers of its decline, and so different regions face very different challenges. Here, we quantify the contribution of regions and countries towards recent global trends in vertebrate conservation status (as measured by the Red List Index), to guide action towards the 2020 target. We found that>50% of the global deterioration in the conservation status of birds, mammals and amphibians is concentrated in <1% of the surface area, 39/1098 ecoregions (4%) and eight/195 countries (4%) – Australia, China, Colombia, Ecuador, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, and the United States. These countries hold a third of global diversity in these vertebrate groups, partially explaining why they concentrate most of the losses. Yet, other megadiverse countries – most notably Brazil (responsible for 10% of species but just 1% of deterioration), plus India and Madagascar – performed better in conserving their share of global vertebrate diversity. Very few countries, mostly island nations (e.g. Cook Islands, Fiji, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Tonga), have achieved net improvements. Per capita wealth does not explain these patterns, with two of the richest countries – United States and Australia – fairing conspicuously poorly. Different countries were affected by different combinations of threats. Reducing global rates of biodiversity loss will require investment in the regions and countries with the highest responsibility for the world's biodiversity, focusing on conserving those species and areas most in peril and on reducing the drivers with the highest impacts. PMID:25426636

  17. Spatially-explicit and spectral soil carbon modeling in Florida

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Profound shifts have occurred over the last three centuries in which human actions have become the main driver to global environmental change. In this new epoch, the Anthropocene, human-driven changes such as population growth, climate and land use change, are pushing the Earth system well outside i...

  18. Spatially explicit trends in the global conservation status of vertebrates.

    PubMed

    Rodrigues, Ana S L; Brooks, Thomas M; Butchart, Stuart H M; Chanson, Janice; Cox, Neil; Hoffmann, Michael; Stuart, Simon N

    2014-01-01

    The world's governments have committed to preventing the extinction of threatened species and improving their conservation status by 2020. However, biodiversity is not evenly distributed across space, and neither are the drivers of its decline, and so different regions face very different challenges. Here, we quantify the contribution of regions and countries towards recent global trends in vertebrate conservation status (as measured by the Red List Index), to guide action towards the 2020 target. We found that>50% of the global deterioration in the conservation status of birds, mammals and amphibians is concentrated in <1% of the surface area, 39/1098 ecoregions (4%) and eight/195 countries (4%) - Australia, China, Colombia, Ecuador, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, and the United States. These countries hold a third of global diversity in these vertebrate groups, partially explaining why they concentrate most of the losses. Yet, other megadiverse countries - most notably Brazil (responsible for 10% of species but just 1% of deterioration), plus India and Madagascar - performed better in conserving their share of global vertebrate diversity. Very few countries, mostly island nations (e.g. Cook Islands, Fiji, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Tonga), have achieved net improvements. Per capita wealth does not explain these patterns, with two of the richest countries - United States and Australia - fairing conspicuously poorly. Different countries were affected by different combinations of threats. Reducing global rates of biodiversity loss will require investment in the regions and countries with the highest responsibility for the world's biodiversity, focusing on conserving those species and areas most in peril and on reducing the drivers with the highest impacts.

  19. Spatially Explicit Life Cycle Assessment of Biofuel Feedstock Production

    EPA Science Inventory

    Biofuels derived from renewable resources have gained increased research and development priority due to increasing energy demand and national security concerns. In the US, the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 mandated the annual production of 56.8 billion L of...

  20. Implicit and Explicit Learning of Languages.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDermott, James E.

    1999-01-01

    Discusses theoretical and practical issues connected with implicit and explicit learning of languages. Explicit learning is knowledge expressed in the form of rules or definitions; implicit knowledge can be inferred to exist because of observed performance but cannot be clearly described. Hypothesizes why explicit learning can lead to implicit…

  1. Phenotypic variation and fitness in a metapopulation of tubeworms (Ridgeia piscesae Jones) at hydrothermal vents.

    PubMed

    Tunnicliffe, Verena; St Germain, Candice; Hilário, Ana

    2014-01-01

    We examine the nature of variation in a hot vent tubeworm, Ridgeia piscesae, to determine how phenotypes are maintained and how reproductive potential is dictated by habitat. This foundation species at northeast Pacific hydrothermal sites occupies a wide habitat range in a highly heterogeneous environment. Where fluids supply high levels of dissolved sulphide for symbionts, the worm grows rapidly in a "short-fat" phenotype characterized by lush gill plumes; when plumes are healthy, sperm package capture is higher. This form can mature within months and has a high fecundity with continuous gamete output and a lifespan of about three years in unstable conditions. Other phenotypes occupy low fluid flux habitats that are more stable and individuals grow very slowly; however, they have low reproductive readiness that is hampered further by small, predator cropped branchiae, thus reducing fertilization and metabolite uptake. Although only the largest worms were measured, only 17% of low flux worms were reproductively competent compared to 91% of high flux worms. A model of reproductive readiness illustrates that tube diameter is a good predictor of reproductive output and that few low flux worms reached critical reproductive size. We postulate that most of the propagules for the vent fields originate from the larger tubeworms that live in small, unstable habitat patches. The large expanses of worms in more stable low flux habitat sustain a small, but long-term, reproductive output. Phenotypic variation is an adaptation that fosters both morphological and physiological responses to differences in chemical milieu and predator pressure. This foundation species forms a metapopulation with variable growth characteristics in a heterogeneous environment where a strategy of phenotypic variation bestows an advantage over specialization.

  2. Metapopulation dynamics override local limits on long-term parasite persistence.

    PubMed

    Ram, Karthik; Preisser, Evan L; Gruner, Daniel S; Strong, Donald R

    2008-12-01

    A simple null model, particularly germane to small and vulnerable organisms such as parasites, is that local conditions set a stage upon which larger-scale dynamics play out. Soil moisture strongly influences survival of entomopathogenic nematodes (EPN), which in turn drive trophic cascades by protecting vegetation from root-feeding herbivores. In this study, we examine the mechanisms responsible for patchy occurrence of an entomopathogenic nematode, Heterorhabditis marelatus, in a California coastal prairie. One hypothesis proposes that biotic factors such as competition and natural enemies could regulate occurrence of EPN populations. We found that fungi and other enemies of EPN, although locally potent, did not explain the patterns of incidence across sites. Abiotic factors also have strong effects on EPN persistence, especially for vulnerable free-living stages. Thus, we tested the hypothesis that patchy occurrence of EPN on a large landscape was driven by differences in soil moisture. Our research uses long-term data on nematode incidence in combination with a landscape-level experiment to demonstrate the lack of a correlation between soil moisture and long-term persistence. A year-long experiment showed EPN mortality was weakly correlated with soil moisture among our study sites. Thirteen years of data, however, showed that colonization rates were highly correlated with long-term persistence. Sites with highest long-term persistence experienced the highest rates of rhizosphere colonization, extinction, and turnover. As a result, we concluded that metapopulation dynamics override limitations set by local and short-term abiotic conditions to determine long-term persistence in this parasite-driven trophic cascade.

  3. Phenotypic Variation and Fitness in a Metapopulation of Tubeworms (Ridgeia piscesae Jones) at Hydrothermal Vents

    PubMed Central

    Tunnicliffe, Verena; St. Germain, Candice; Hilário, Ana

    2014-01-01

    We examine the nature of variation in a hot vent tubeworm, Ridgeia piscesae, to determine how phenotypes are maintained and how reproductive potential is dictated by habitat. This foundation species at northeast Pacific hydrothermal sites occupies a wide habitat range in a highly heterogeneous environment. Where fluids supply high levels of dissolved sulphide for symbionts, the worm grows rapidly in a “short-fat” phenotype characterized by lush gill plumes; when plumes are healthy, sperm package capture is higher. This form can mature within months and has a high fecundity with continuous gamete output and a lifespan of about three years in unstable conditions. Other phenotypes occupy low fluid flux habitats that are more stable and individuals grow very slowly; however, they have low reproductive readiness that is hampered further by small, predator cropped branchiae, thus reducing fertilization and metabolite uptake. Although only the largest worms were measured, only 17% of low flux worms were reproductively competent compared to 91% of high flux worms. A model of reproductive readiness illustrates that tube diameter is a good predictor of reproductive output and that few low flux worms reached critical reproductive size. We postulate that most of the propagules for the vent fields originate from the larger tubeworms that live in small, unstable habitat patches. The large expanses of worms in more stable low flux habitat sustain a small, but long-term, reproductive output. Phenotypic variation is an adaptation that fosters both morphological and physiological responses to differences in chemical milieu and predator pressure. This foundation species forms a metapopulation with variable growth characteristics in a heterogeneous environment where a strategy of phenotypic variation bestows an advantage over specialization. PMID:25337895

  4. Are wetland regulations cost effective for species protection? A case study of amphibian metapopulations.

    PubMed

    Bauer, Dana Marie; Paton, Peter W C; Swallow, Stephen K

    2010-04-01

    Recent declines in amphibian populations have raised concern among conservation biologists, with habitat loss and degradation due to human activities among the leading causes. The most common policies used to protect the habitat of pond-breeding amphibians are wetland regulations that safeguard the wetland itself. However, many amphibians spend much of their adult lives foraging and over-wintering in upland habitats and exist as metapopulations with dispersal among ponds. With no consideration of lands in the dispersal matrix, wetland policies may be ineffective at protecting amphibians or other wetland species that disperse across the landscape. This paper examined the adequacy and cost effectiveness of alternative conservation policies and their corresponding land use patterns on the long-term persistence of pond-breeding amphibians in exurban landscapes. We used computer simulations to compare outcomes of wetland buffer policies and broader landscape-wide conservation policies across a variety of landscape scenarios, and we conducted sensitivity analyses on the model's species parameters in order to generalize our results to other wetland species. Results showed that, in the majority of human-dominated landscapes, some amount of dispersal matrix protection is necessary for long-term species persistence. However, in landscapes with extremely low-intensity land use (e.g., low-density residential housing) and high pond density, wetland buffer policies may be all that is required. It is not always more cost effective to protect core habitat over the dispersal matrix, a common conservation practice. Conservation costs that result from forgone residential, commercial, or agricultural activities can vary substantially but increase in a nonlinear manner regardless of land use zoning. There appears to be a threshold around an average habitat patch occupancy level of 80%, after which opportunity costs rise dramatically.

  5. Outlier SNPs show more genetic structure between two Bay of Fundy metapopulations of Atlantic salmon than do neutral SNPs.

    PubMed

    Freamo, Heather; O'Reilly, Patrick; Berg, Paul R; Lien, Sigbjørn; Boulding, Elizabeth G

    2011-03-01

    Atlantic salmon of Eastern Canada were once of considerable importance to aboriginal, recreational, and commercial fisheries, yet many populations are now in decline, particularly those of the inner Bay of Fundy (iBoF), which were recently listed as endangered. We investigated whether nonneutral SNPs could be used to assign individual Atlantic salmon accurately to either the iBoF or the outer Bay of Fundy (oBoF) metapopulations because this has been difficult with existing neutral markers. We first searched for markers under diversifying selection by genotyping eight captively bred Bay of Fundy (BoF) populations for 320 SNP loci with the Sequenom MassARRAY™ system and then analysed the data set with four different F(ST) outlier detection programs. Three outlier loci were identified by both BayesFST and BayeScan whereas seven outlier loci, including the three previously mentioned, were identified by both Fdist and Arlequin. A subset of 14 nonneutral SNPs was more accurate (85% accuracy) than a subset of 67 neutral SNPs (75% accuracy) at assigning individual salmon back to their metapopulation. We then chose a subset of nine outlier SNP markers and used them to inexpensively genotype archived DNA samples from seven wild BoF populations using Invader™ chemistry. Hierarchical AMOVA of these independent wild samples corroborated our previous findings of significant genetic differentiation between iBoF and oBoF salmon metapopulations. Our research shows that identifying and using outlier loci is an important step towards achieving the goal of consistently and accurately distinguishing iBoF from oBoF Atlantic salmon, which will aid in their conservation.

  6. The transition from isolated patches to a metapopulation in the eastern collared lizard in response to prescribed fires.

    PubMed

    Templeton, Alan R; Brazeal, Hilary; Neuwald, Jennifer L

    2011-09-01

    Habitat fragmentation often arises from human-induced alterations to the matrix that reduce or eliminate dispersal between habitat patches. Elimination of dispersal increases local extinction and decreases recolonization. These phenomena were observed in the eastern collared lizard (Crotaphytus collaris collaris), which lives in the mid-continental highland region of the Ozarks (Missouri, USA) on glades: habitats of exposed bedrock that form desert-like habitats imbedded in a woodland matrix. With the onset of woodland fire suppression, glade habitats degenerated and the woodland matrix was altered to create a strong barrier to dispersal. By 1980, lizard populations in the Ozarks were rapidly going extinct. In response to this decline, some glades were restored by clearing and burning. Starting in 1984, collared lizard populations were translocated onto these restored habitats. The translocated populations persisted but did not colonize nearby glades or disperse among one another. In 1994 prescribed woodland fires were initiated, which unleashed much dispersal and colonizing behavior. Dispersal was highly nonrandom by both intrinsic variables (age, gender) and extrinsic variables (overall demography, glade population sizes, glade areas, landscape features), resulting in different classes of lizards being dominant in creating demographic cohesiveness among glades, colonizing new glades on a mountain, and colonizing new mountain systems. A dramatic transition was documented from isolated fragments, to a nonequilibrium colonizing metapopulation, and finally to a stable metapopulation. This transition is characterized by the convergence of rates of extinction and recolonization and a major alteration of dispersal probabilities and pattern in going from the nonequilibrium to stable metapopulation states.

  7. Survival differences and the effect of environmental instability on breeding dispersal in an Adelie penguin meta-population.

    PubMed

    Dugger, Katie M; Ainley, David G; Lyver, Phil O'B; Barton, Kerry; Ballard, Grant

    2010-07-06

    High survival and breeding philopatry was previously confirmed for the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) during a period of stable environmental conditions. However, movements of breeding adults as a result of an unplanned natural experiment within a four-colony meta-population provided interesting insights into this species' population dynamics. We used multistate mark-recapture models to investigate apparent survival and dispersal of breeding birds in the southwestern Ross Sea during 12 breeding seasons (1996-2007). The natural experiment was facilitated by the temporary grounding of two immense icebergs that (i) erected a veritable fence separating colonies and altering migration routes and (ii) added additional stress by trapping extensive sea ice in the region during 5 of 12 y. Colony size varied by orders of magnitude, allowing investigation of apparent survival and dispersal rates in relation to both environmental conditions and colony size within this meta-population. Apparent survival was lowest for the smallest colony (4,000 pairs) and similar for the medium (45,000 pairs) and large colonies (155,000 pairs), despite increased foraging effort expended by breeders at the largest colony. Dispersal of breeding birds was low (<1%), except during years of difficult environmental conditions when movements increased, especially away from the smallest colony (3.5%). Decreased apparent survival at the smallest colony could reflect differences in migration chronology and winter habitat use compared with the other colonies, or it may reflect increased permanent emigration to colonies outside this meta-population. Contrary to current thought, breeding penguins are not always philopatric. Rather, stressful conditions can significantly increase dispersal rates.

  8. A novel fitness proxy in structured locally finite metapopulations with diploid genetics, with an application to dispersal evolution.

    PubMed

    Parvinen, Kalle; Metz, Johan A J

    2008-06-01

    Many studies of evolutionarily stable strategies (ESS) for technical reasons make the simplification that reproduction is clonal. A post-hoc justification is that in the simplest eco-evolutionary models more realistic genetic assumptions, such as haploid sexual or diploid sexual cases, yield results compatible with the clonal ones. For metapopulations the technical reasons were even more poignant thanks to the lack of accessible fitness proxies for the diploid case. However, metapopulations are also precisely the sort of ecological backdrop for which one expect discrepancies between the evolutionary outcomes derived from clonal reproduction and diploid genetics, because substantially many mutant homozygotes appear locally even though the mutant is rare globally. In this paper we devise a fitness proxy applicable to the haploid sexual and diploid sexual case, in the style of Metz and Gyllenberg [Metz, J.A.J., Gyllenberg, M., 2001. How should we define fitness in structured metapopulation models? Including an application to the calculation of ES dispersal strategies. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 268, 499-508], that can cope with local population fluctuations due to environmental and demographic stochasticity. With the use of this fitness proxy we find that in dispersal evolution the studied clonal model is equivalent with the haploid sexual model, and that there are indeed many differences between clonal and diploid ESS dispersal rates. In a homogenous landscape the discrepancy is but minor (less than 2%), but the situation is different in a heterogeneous landscape: Not only is the quantitative discrepancy between the two types of ESSs appreciable (around 10%-20%), but more importantly, at the same parameter values, evolutionarily stability properties may differ. It is possible, that the singular strategy is evolutionarily stable in the clonal case but not in the diploid case, and vice versa.

  9. The unavoidable costs and unexpected benefits of parasitism: population and metapopulation models of parasite-mediated competition

    PubMed Central

    Kuo, Chih-Horng; Corby-Harris, Vanessa; Promislow, Daniel E.L.

    2012-01-01

    When faced with limited resources, organisms have to determine how to allocate their resources to maximize fitness. In the presence of parasites, hosts may be selected for their ability to balance between the two competing needs of reproduction and immunity. These decisions can have consequences not only for host fitness, but also for the ability of parasites to persist within the population, and for the competitive dynamics between different host species. We develop two mathematical models to investigate how resource allocation strategies evolve at both population and metapopulation levels. The evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) at the population level is a balanced investment between reproduction and immunity that maintains parasites, even though the host has the capacity to eliminate parasites. The host exhibiting the ESS can always invade other host populations through parasite-mediated competition, effectively using the parasites as biological weapons. At the metapopulation level, the dominant strategy is sometimes different from the population-level ESS, and depends on the ratio of local extinction rate to host colonization rate. This study may help to explain why parasites are as common as they are, and can serve as a modeling framework for investigating parasite-mediated ecological invasions. Furthermore, this work highlights the possibility that the ‘introduction of enemies’ process may facilitate species invasion. PMID:18023820

  10. Low genetic diversity and strong but shallow population differentiation suggests genetic homogenization by metapopulation dynamics in a social spider.

    PubMed

    Settepani, V; Bechsgaard, J; Bilde, T

    2014-12-01

    Mating systems and population dynamics influence genetic diversity and structure. Species that experience inbreeding and limited gene flow are expected to evolve isolated, divergent genetic lineages. Metapopulation dynamics with frequent extinctions and colonizations may, on the other hand, deplete and homogenize genetic variation, if extinction rate is sufficiently high compared to the effect of drift in local demes. We investigated these theoretical predictions empirically in social spiders that are highly inbred. Social spiders show intranest mating, female-biased sex ratio, and frequent extinction and colonization events, factors that deplete genetic diversity within nests and populations and limit gene flow. We characterized population genetic structure in Stegodyphus sarasinorum, a social spider distributed across the Indian subcontinent. Species-wide genetic diversity was estimated over approximately 2800 km from Sri Lanka to Himalayas, by sequencing 16 protein-coding nuclear loci. We found 13 SNPs in 6592 bp (π = 0.00045) indicating low species-wide nucleotide diversity. Three genetic lineages were strongly differentiated; however, only one fixed difference among them suggests recent divergence. This is consistent with a scenario of metapopulation dynamics that homogenizes genetic diversity across the species' range. Ultimately, low standing genetic variation may hamper a species' ability to track environmental change and render social inbreeding spiders 'evolutionary dead-ends'.

  11. Genetic Variation, Structure, and Gene Flow in a Sloth Bear (Melursus ursinus) Meta-Population in the Satpura-Maikal Landscape of Central India

    PubMed Central

    Dutta, Trishna; Sharma, Sandeep; Maldonado, Jesús E.; Panwar, Hemendra Singh; Seidensticker, John

    2015-01-01

    Sloth bears (Melursus ursinus) are endemic to the Indian subcontinent. As a result of continued habitat loss and degradation over the past century, sloth bear populations have been in steady decline and now exist only in isolated or fragmented habitat across the entire range. We investigated the genetic connectivity of the sloth bear meta-population in five tiger reserves in the Satpura-Maikal landscape of central India. We used noninvasively collected fecal and hair samples to obtain genotypic information using a panel of seven polymorphic loci. Out of 194 field collected samples, we identified 55 individuals in this meta-population. We found that this meta-population has moderate genetic variation, and is subdivided into two genetic clusters. Further, we identified five first-generation migrants and signatures of contemporary gene flow. We found evidence of sloth bears in the corridor between the Kanha and Pench Tiger Reserves, and our results suggest that habitat connectivity and corridors play an important role in maintaining gene flow in this meta-population. These corridors face several anthropogenic and infrastructure development threats that have the potential to sever ongoing gene flow, if policies to protect them are not put into action immediately. PMID:25945939

  12. Genetic Variation, Structure, and Gene Flow in a Sloth Bear (Melursus ursinus) Meta-Population in the Satpura-Maikal Landscape of Central India.

    PubMed

    Dutta, Trishna; Sharma, Sandeep; Maldonado, Jesús E; Panwar, Hemendra Singh; Seidensticker, John

    2015-01-01

    Sloth bears (Melursus ursinus) are endemic to the Indian subcontinent. As a result of continued habitat loss and degradation over the past century, sloth bear populations have been in steady decline and now exist only in isolated or fragmented habitat across the entire range. We investigated the genetic connectivity of the sloth bear meta-population in five tiger reserves in the Satpura-Maikal landscape of central India. We used noninvasively collected fecal and hair samples to obtain genotypic information using a panel of seven polymorphic loci. Out of 194 field collected samples, we identified 55 individuals in this meta-population. We found that this meta-population has moderate genetic variation, and is subdivided into two genetic clusters. Further, we identified five first-generation migrants and signatures of contemporary gene flow. We found evidence of sloth bears in the corridor between the Kanha and Pench Tiger Reserves, and our results suggest that habitat connectivity and corridors play an important role in maintaining gene flow in this meta-population. These corridors face several anthropogenic and infrastructure development threats that have the potential to sever ongoing gene flow, if policies to protect them are not put into action immediately.

  13. Development of Implicit and Explicit Category Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huang-Pollock, Cynthia L.; Maddox, W. Todd; Karalunas, Sarah L.

    2011-01-01

    We present two studies that examined developmental differences in the implicit and explicit acquisition of category knowledge. College-attending adults consistently outperformed school-age children on two separate information-integration paradigms due to children's more frequent use of an explicit rule-based strategy. Accuracy rates were also…

  14. Implicit and Explicit Exercise and Sedentary Identity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berry, Tanya R.; Strachan, Shaelyn M.

    2012-01-01

    We examined the relationship between implicit and explicit "exerciser" and "sedentary" self-identity when activated by stereotypes. Undergraduate participants (N = 141) wrote essays about university students who either liked to exercise or engage in sedentary activities. This was followed by an implicit identity task and an explicit measure of…

  15. Thinking Styles in Implicit and Explicit Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xie, Qiuzhi; Gao, Xiangping; King, Ronnel B.

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated whether individual differences in thinking styles influence explicit and implicit learning. Eighty-seven university students in China participated in this study. Results indicated that performance in the explicit learning condition was positively associated with Type I thinking styles (i.e. legislative and liberal styles)…

  16. Implicit and Explicit Instruction of Spelling Rules

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kemper, M. J.; Verhoeven, L.; Bosman, A. M. T.

    2012-01-01

    The study aimed to compare the differential effectiveness of explicit and implicit instruction of two Dutch spelling rules. Students with and without spelling disabilities were instructed a spelling rule either implicitly or explicitly in two experiments. Effects were tested in a pretest-intervention-posttest control group design. Experiment 1…

  17. A seasonal SIR metapopulation model with an Allee effect with application to controlling plague in prairie dog colonies.

    PubMed

    Ekanayake, A J; Ekanayake, D B

    2015-01-01

    For wildlife species living among patchy habitats, disease and the Allee effect (reduced per capita birth rates at low population densities) may together drive a patch's population to extinction, particularly if births are seasonal. Yet local extinction may not be indicative of global extinction, and a patch may become recolonized by migrating individuals. We introduce deterministic and stochastic susceptible, infectious, and immune epidemic models with vector species to study disease in a metapopulation with an Allee effect and seasonal birth and dispersal. We obtain conditions for the existence of a strong Allee effect and existence and stability of a disease-free positive periodic solution. These general models have application to many wildlife diseases. As a case study, we apply them to evaluate dynamics of the sylvatic plague in prairie dog colonies interconnected through dispersal. We further evaluate the effects of control of the vector population and control by immunization on plague eradication.

  18. Climate Change Winners: Receding Ice Fields Facilitate Colony Expansion and Altered Dynamics in an Adélie Penguin Metapopulation

    PubMed Central

    LaRue, Michelle A.; Ainley, David G.; Swanson, Matt; Dugger, Katie M.; Lyver, Phil O′B.; Barton, Kerry; Ballard, Grant

    2013-01-01

    There will be winners and losers as climate change alters the habitats of polar organisms. For an Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colony on Beaufort Island (Beaufort), part of a cluster of colonies in the southern Ross Sea, we report a recent population increase in response to increased nesting habitat as glaciers have receded. Emigration rates of birds banded as chicks on Beaufort to colonies on nearby Ross Island decreased after 2005 as available habitat on Beaufort increased, leading to altered dynamics of the metapopulation. Using aerial photography beginning in 1958 and modern satellite imagery, we measured change in area of available nesting habitat and population size of the Beaufort colony. Population size varied with available habitat, and both increased rapidly since the 1990s. In accord with glacial retreat, summer temperatures at nearby McMurdo Station increased by ∼0.50°C per decade since the mid-1980s. Although the Ross Sea is likely to be the last ocean with an intact ecosystem, the recent retreat of ice fields at Beaufort that resulted in increased breeding habitat exemplifies a process that has been underway in the Ross Sea during the entire Holocene. Furthermore, our results are in line with predictions that major ice shelves and glaciers will retreat rapidly elsewhere in the Antarctic, potentially leading to increased breeding habitat for Adélie penguins. Results further indicated that satellite imagery may be used to estimate large changes in Adélie penguin populations, facilitating our understanding of metapopulation dynamics and environmental factors that influence regional populations. PMID:23573267

  19. The relevance of gene flow in metapopulation dynamics of an oceanic island endemic, Olea europaea subsp. guanchica.

    PubMed

    García-Verdugo, Carlos; Forrest, Alan D; Fay, Michael F; Vargas, Pablo

    2010-12-01

    Theoretical and empirical studies suggest that geographical isolation and extinction-recolonization dynamics are two factors causing strong genetic structure in metapopulations, but their consequences in species with high dispersal abilities have not been tested at large scales. Here, we investigated the effect of population age structure and isolation by distance in the patterns of genetic diversity in a wind-pollinated, zoochorous tree (Olea europaea subsp. guanchica) sporadically affected by volcanic events across the Canarian archipelago. Genetic variation was assessed at six nuclear microsatellites (nDNA) and six chloroplast fragments (cpDNA) in nine subpopulations sampled on four oceanic islands. Subpopulations occurring on more recent substrates were more differentiated than those on older substrates, but within-subpopulation genetic diversity was not significantly different between age groups for any type of marker. Isolation-by-distance differentiation was observed for nDNA but not for cpDNA, in agreement with other metapopulation studies. Contrary to the general trend for island systems, between-island differentiation was extremely low, and lower than differentiation between subpopulations on the same island. The pollen-to-seed ratio was close to one, two orders of magnitude lower than the average estimated for other wind-pollinated, animal-dispersed plants. Our results showed that population turnover and geographical isolation increased genetic differentiation relative to an island model at equilibrium, but overall genetic structure was unexpectedly weak for a species distributed among islands. This empirical study shows that extensive gene flow, particularly mediated by seeds, can ameliorate population subdivision resulting from extinction-recolonization dynamics and isolation by distance.

  20. Climate change winners: receding ice fields facilitate colony expansion and altered dynamics in an Adélie penguin metapopulation.

    PubMed

    LaRue, Michelle A; Ainley, David G; Swanson, Matt; Dugger, Katie M; Lyver, Phil O'B; Barton, Kerry; Ballard, Grant

    2013-01-01

    There will be winners and losers as climate change alters the habitats of polar organisms. For an Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colony on Beaufort Island (Beaufort), part of a cluster of colonies in the southern Ross Sea, we report a recent population increase in response to increased nesting habitat as glaciers have receded. Emigration rates of birds banded as chicks on Beaufort to colonies on nearby Ross Island decreased after 2005 as available habitat on Beaufort increased, leading to altered dynamics of the metapopulation. Using aerial photography beginning in 1958 and modern satellite imagery, we measured change in area of available nesting habitat and population size of the Beaufort colony. Population size varied with available habitat, and both increased rapidly since the 1990s. In accord with glacial retreat, summer temperatures at nearby McMurdo Station increased by ~0.50 °C per decade since the mid-1980s. Although the Ross Sea is likely to be the last ocean with an intact ecosystem, the recent retreat of ice fields at Beaufort that resulted in increased breeding habitat exemplifies a process that has been underway in the Ross Sea during the entire Holocene. Furthermore, our results are in line with predictions that major ice shelves and glaciers will retreat rapidly elsewhere in the Antarctic, potentially leading to increased breeding habitat for Adélie penguins. Results further indicated that satellite imagery may be used to estimate large changes in Adélie penguin populations, facilitating our understanding of metapopulation dynamics and environmental factors that influence regional populations.

  1. Climate change winners: receding ice fields facilitate colony expansion and altered dynamics in an Adélie penguin metapopulation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    LaRue, Michelle A.; Ainley, David G.; Swanson, Matt; Dugger, Katie M.; Lyber, Phil O'B.; Barton, Kerry; Ballard, Grant

    2013-01-01

    There will be winners and losers as climate change alters the habitats of polar organisms. For an Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colony on Beaufort Island (Beaufort), part of a cluster of colonies in the southern Ross Sea, we report a recent population increase in response to increased nesting habitat as glaciers have receded. Emigration rates of birds banded as chicks on Beaufort to colonies on nearby Ross Island decreased after 2005 as available habitat on Beaufort increased, leading to altered dynamics of the metapopulation. Using aerial photography beginning in 1958 and modern satellite imagery, we measured change in area of available nesting habitat and population size of the Beaufort colony. Population size varied with available habitat, and both increased rapidly since the 1990s. In accord with glacial retreat, summer temperatures at nearby McMurdo Station increased by ~0.50°C per decade since the mid-1980s. Although the Ross Sea is likely to be the last ocean with an intact ecosystem, the recent retreat of ice fields at Beaufort that resulted in increased breeding habitat exemplifies a process that has been underway in the Ross Sea during the entire Holocene. Furthermore, our results are in line with predictions that major ice shelves and glaciers will retreat rapidly elsewhere in the Antarctic, potentially leading to increased breeding habitat for Adélie penguins. Results further indicated that satellite imagery may be used to estimate large changes in Adélie penguin populations, facilitating our understanding of metapopulation dynamics and environmental factors that influence regional populations.

  2. Using species distribution models to define nesting habitat of the eastern metapopulation of double-crested cormorants.

    PubMed

    Sheehan, Kate L; Esswein, Samuel T; Dorr, Brian S; Yarrow, Greg K; Johnson, Ron J

    2017-01-01

    When organisms with similar phenotypes have conflicting management and conservation initiatives, approaches are needed to differentiate among subpopulations or discrete groups. For example, the eastern metapopulation of the double-crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) has a migratory phenotype that is culled because they are viewed as a threat to commercial and natural resources, whereas resident birds are targeted for conservation. Understanding the distinct breeding habitats of resident versus migratory cormorants would aid in identification and management decisions. Here, we use species distribution models (SDM: Maxent) of cormorant nesting habitat to examine the eastern P. auritus metapopulation and the predicted breeding sites of its phenotypes. We then estimate the phenotypic identity of breeding colonies of cormorants where management plans are being developed. We transferred SDMs trained on data from resident bird colonies in Florida and migratory bird colonies in Minnesota to South Carolina in an effort to identify the phenotype of breeding cormorants there based on the local landscape characteristics. Nesting habitat characteristics of cormorant colonies in South Carolina more closely resembled those of the Florida phenotype than those of birds of the Minnesota phenotype. The presence of the resident phenotype in summer suggests that migratory and resident cormorants will co-occur in South Carolina in winter. Thus, there is an opportunity for separate management strategies for the two phenotypes in that state. We found differences in nesting habitat characteristics that could be used to refine management strategies and reduce human conflicts with abundant winter migrants and, at the same time, conserve less common colonies of resident cormorants. The models we use here show potential for advancing the study of geographically overlapping phenotypes with differing conservation and management priorities.

  3. Implicit sequence learning with competing explicit cues.

    PubMed

    Jiménez, L; Méndez, C

    2001-05-01

    Previous research has shown that the expression of implicit sequence learning is eliminated in a choice reaction time task when an explicit cue allows participants to accurately predict the next stimulus (Cleeremans, 1997), but that two contingencies predicting the same outcome can be learned and expressed simultaneously when both of them remain implicit (Jiménez & Méndez, 1999). Two experiments tested the hypothesis that it is the deliberate use of explicit knowledge that produces the inhibitory effects over the expression of implicit sequence learning. However, the results of these experiments do not support this hypothesis, rather showing that implicit learning is acquired and expressed regardless of the influence of explicit knowledge. These results are interpreted as reinforcing the thesis about the automatic nature of both the acquisition and the expression of implicit sequence learning. The contradictory results reported by Cleeremans are attributed to a floor effect derived from the use of a special type of explicit cue.

  4. An Explicit Nonlinear Mapping for Manifold Learning.

    PubMed

    Qiao, Hong; Zhang, Peng; Wang, Di; Zhang, Bo

    2013-02-01

    Manifold learning is a hot research topic in the held of computer science and has many applications in the real world. A main drawback of manifold learning methods is, however, that there are no explicit mappings from the input data manifold to the output embedding. This prohibits the application of manifold learning methods in many practical problems such as classification and target detection. Previously, in order to provide explicit mappings for manifold learning methods, many methods have been proposed to get an approximate explicit representation mapping with the assumption that there exists a linear projection between the high-dimensional data samples and their low-dimensional embedding. However, this linearity assumption may be too restrictive. In this paper, an explicit nonlinear mapping is proposed for manifold learning, based on the assumption that there exists a polynomial mapping between the high-dimensional data samples and their low-dimensional representations. As far as we know, this is the hrst time that an explicit nonlinear mapping for manifold learning is given. In particular, we apply this to the method of locally linear embedding and derive an explicit nonlinear manifold learning algorithm, which is named neighborhood preserving polynomial embedding. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data show that the proposed mapping is much more effective in preserving the local neighborhood information and the nonlinear geometry of the high-dimensional data samples than previous work.

  5. Sleep enhances explicit recollection in recognition memory.

    PubMed

    Drosopoulos, Spyridon; Wagner, Ullrich; Born, Jan

    2005-01-01

    Recognition memory is considered to be supported by two different memory processes, i.e., the explicit recollection of information about a previous event and an implicit process of recognition based on an acontextual sense of familiarity. Both types of memory supposedly rely on distinct memory systems. Sleep is known to enhance the consolidation of memories, with the different sleep stages affecting different types of memory. In the present study, we used the process-dissociation procedure to compare the effects of sleep on estimates of explicit (recollection) and implicit (familiarity) memory formation on a word-list discrimination task. Subjects studied two lists of words before a 3-h retention interval of sleep or wakefulness, and recognition was tested afterward. The retention intervals were positioned either in the early night when sleep is dominated by slow-wave sleep (SWS), or in the late night, when sleep is dominated by REM sleep. Sleep enhanced explicit recognition memory, as compared with wakefulness (P < 0.05), whereas familiarity was not affected by sleep. Moreover, explicit recognition was particularly enhanced after sleep in the early-night retention interval, and especially when the words were presented with the same contextual features as during learning, i.e., in the same font (P < 0.05). The data indicate that in a task that allows separating the contribution of explicit and implicit memory, sleep particularly supports explicit memory formation. The mechanism of this effect appears to be linked to SWS.

  6. Dissimilarity of contemporary and historical gene flow in a wild carrot (Daucus carota) metapopulation under contrasting levels of human disturbance: implications for risk assessment and management of transgene introgression

    PubMed Central

    Rong, Jun; Xu, Shuhua; Meirmans, Patrick G.; Vrieling, Klaas

    2013-01-01

    Background and Aims Transgene introgression from crops into wild relatives may increase the resistance of wild plants to herbicides, insects, etc. The chance of transgene introgression depends not only on the rate of hybridization and the establishment of hybrids in local wild populations, but also on the metapopulation dynamics of the wild relative. The aim of the study was to estimate gene flow in a metapopulation for assessing and managing the risks of transgene introgression. Methods Wild carrots (Daucus carota) were sampled from 12 patches in a metapopulation. Eleven microsatellites were used to genotype wild carrots. Genetic structure was estimated based on the FST statistic. Contemporary (over the last several generations) and historical (over many generations) gene flow was estimated with assignment and coalescent methods, respectively. Key Results The genetic structure in the wild carrot metapopulation was moderate (FST = 0·082) and most of the genetic variation resided within patches. A pattern of isolation by distance was detected, suggesting that most of the gene flow occurred between neighbouring patches (≤1 km). The mean contemporary gene flow was 5 times higher than the historical estimate, and the correlation between them was very low. Moreover, the contemporary gene flow in roadsides was twice that in a nature reserve, and the correlation between contemporary and historical estimates was much higher in the nature reserve. Mowing of roadsides may contribute to the increase in contemporary gene flow. Simulations demonstrated that the higher contemporary gene flow could accelerate the process of transgene introgression in the metapopulation. Conclusions Human disturbance such as mowing may alter gene flow patterns in wild populations, affecting the metapopulation dynamics of wild plants and the processes of transgene introgression in the metapopulation. The risk assessment and management of transgene introgression and the control of weeds need to

  7. Stability of explicit advection schemes. The balance point location rule

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leonard, B. P.

    2002-02-01

    This paper introduces the balance point location rule, providing specific necessary and sufficient conditions for constructing unconditionally stable explicit advection schemes, in both semi-Lagrangian and flux-form Eulerian formulations. The rule determines how the spatial stencil is placed on the computational grid. It requires the balance point (the center of the stencil in index space) to be located in the same patch as the departure point for semi-Lagrangian schemes or the same cell as the sweep point for Eulerian schemes. Centering the stencil in this way guarantees stability, regardless of the size of the time step. In contrast, the original Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) condition requiring the stencil merely to include the departure (sweep) point, although necessary, is not sufficient for guaranteeing stability. The CFL condition is of limited practical value, whereas the balance point location rule always gives precise and easily implemented prescriptions for constructing stable algorithms. The rule is also helpful in correcting a number of misconceptions that have arisen concerning explicit advection schemes. In particular, explicit Eulerian schemes are widely believed to be inefficient because of stability constraints on the time step, dictated by a narrow interpretation of the CFL condition requiring the Courant number to be less than or equal to one. However, such constraints apply only to a particular class of advection schemes resulting for centering the stencil on the arrival point, when in fact the sole function of the stencil is to estimate the departure (sweep) point value - the arrival point has no relevance in determining the placement of the stencil. Unconditionally stable explicit Eulerian advection schemes are efficient and accurate, comparable in operation count to semi-Lagrangian schemes of the same order, but because of their flux-based formulation, they have the added advantage of being inherently conservative. Copyright

  8. Explicit versus spontaneous diffeomorphism breaking in gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bluhm, Robert

    2015-03-01

    Gravitational theories with fixed background fields break local Lorentz and diffeomorphism invariance either explicitly or spontaneously. In the case of explicit breaking it is known that conflicts can arise between the dynamics and geometrical constraints, while spontaneous breaking evades this problem. It is for this reason that in the gravity sector of the Standard-Model extension (SME) it is assumed that the background fields (SME coefficients) originate from spontaneous symmetry breaking. However, in other examples, such as Chern-Simons gravity and massive gravity, diffeomorphism invariance is explicitly broken by the background fields, and the potential conflicts between the dynamics and geometry can be avoided in most cases. An analysis of how this occurs is given, and the conditions that are placed on the metric tensor and gravitational structure as a result of the presence of an explicit-breaking background are described. The gravity sector of the SME is then considered for the case of explicit breaking. However, it is found that a useful post-Newtonian limit is only obtained when the symmetry breaking is spontaneous.

  9. Preserved memory-based orienting of attention with impaired explicit memory in healthy ageing

    PubMed Central

    Salvato, Gerardo; Patai, Eva Z.; Nobre, Anna C.

    2016-01-01

    It is increasingly recognised that spatial contextual long-term memory (LTM) prepares neural activity for guiding visuo-spatial attention in a proactive manner. In the current study, we investigated whether the decline in explicit memory observed in healthy ageing would compromise this mechanism. We compared the behavioural performance of younger and older participants on learning new contextual memories, on orienting visual attention based on these learnt contextual associations, and on explicit recall of contextual memories. We found a striking dissociation between older versus younger participants in the relationship between the ability to retrieve contextual memories versus the ability to use these to guide attention to enhance performance on a target-detection task. Older participants showed significant deficits in the explicit retrieval task, but their behavioural benefits from memory-based orienting of attention were equivalent to those in young participants. Furthermore, memory-based orienting correlated significantly with explicit contextual LTM in younger adults but not in older adults. These results suggest that explicit memory deficits in ageing might not compromise initial perception and encoding of events. Importantly, the results also shed light on the mechanisms of memory-guided attention, suggesting that explicit contextual memories are not necessary. PMID:26649914

  10. Preserved memory-based orienting of attention with impaired explicit memory in healthy ageing.

    PubMed

    Salvato, Gerardo; Patai, Eva Z; Nobre, Anna C

    2016-01-01

    It is increasingly recognised that spatial contextual long-term memory (LTM) prepares neural activity for guiding visuo-spatial attention in a proactive manner. In the current study, we investigated whether the decline in explicit memory observed in healthy ageing would compromise this mechanism. We compared the behavioural performance of younger and older participants on learning new contextual memories, on orienting visual attention based on these learnt contextual associations, and on explicit recall of contextual memories. We found a striking dissociation between older versus younger participants in the relationship between the ability to retrieve contextual memories versus the ability to use these to guide attention to enhance performance on a target-detection task. Older participants showed significant deficits in the explicit retrieval task, but their behavioural benefits from memory-based orienting of attention were equivalent to those in young participants. Furthermore, memory-based orienting correlated significantly with explicit contextual LTM in younger adults but not in older adults. These results suggest that explicit memory deficits in ageing might not compromise initial perception and encoding of events. Importantly, the results also shed light on the mechanisms of memory-guided attention, suggesting that explicit contextual memories are not necessary.