Implicit cognitive processes in psychopathology: an introduction.

PubMed

Wiers, Reinout W; Teachman, Bethany A; De Houwer, Jan

2007-06-01

Implicit or automatic processes are important in understanding the etiology and maintenance of psychopathological problems. In order to study implicit processes in psychopathology, measures are needed that are valid and reliable when applied to clinical problems. One of the main topics in this special issue concerns the development and validation of new or modified implicit tests in different domains of psychopathology. The other main topic concerns the prediction of clinical outcomes and new ways to directly influence implicit processes in psychopathology. We summarize the contributions to this special issue and discuss how they further our knowledge of implicit processes in psychopathology and how to measure them.

Classification systems for lower extremity amputation prediction in subjects with active diabetic foot ulcer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Monteiro-Soares, M; Martins-Mendes, D; Vaz-Carneiro, A; Sampaio, S; Dinis-Ribeiro, M

2014-10-01

We systematically review the available systems used to classify diabetic foot ulcers in order to synthesize their methodological qualitative issues and accuracy to predict lower extremity amputation, as this may represent a critical point in these patients' care. Two investigators searched, in EBSCO, ISI, PubMed and SCOPUS databases, and independently selected studies published until May 2013 and reporting prognostic accuracy and/or reliability of specific systems for patients with diabetic foot ulcer in order to predict lower extremity amputation. We included 25 studies reporting a prevalence of lower extremity amputation between 6% and 78%. Eight different diabetic foot ulcer descriptions and seven prognostic stratification classification systems were addressed with a variable (1-9) number of factors included, specially peripheral arterial disease (n = 12) or infection at the ulcer site (n = 10) or ulcer depth (n = 10). The Meggitt-Wagner, S(AD)SAD and Texas University Classification systems were the most extensively validated, whereas ten classifications were derived or validated only once. Reliability was reported in a single study, and accuracy measures were reported in five studies with another eight allowing their calculation. Pooled accuracy ranged from 0.65 (for gangrene) to 0.74 (for infection). There are numerous classification systems for diabetic foot ulcer outcome prediction, but only few studies evaluated their reliability or external validity. Studies rarely validated several systems simultaneously and only a few reported accuracy measures. Further studies assessing reliability and accuracy of the available systems and their composing variables are needed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Analytical Algorithms to Quantify the Uncertainty in Remaining Useful Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sankararaman, Shankar; Saxena, Abhinav; Daigle, Matthew; Goebel, Kai

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the use of analytical algorithms to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life (RUL) estimate of components used in aerospace applications. The prediction of RUL is affected by several sources of uncertainty and it is important to systematically quantify their combined effect by computing the uncertainty in the RUL prediction in order to aid risk assessment, risk mitigation, and decisionmaking. While sampling-based algorithms have been conventionally used for quantifying the uncertainty in RUL, analytical algorithms are computationally cheaper and sometimes, are better suited for online decision-making. While exact analytical algorithms are available only for certain special cases (for e.g., linear models with Gaussian variables), effective approximations can be made using the the first-order second moment method (FOSM), the first-order reliability method (FORM), and the inverse first-order reliability method (Inverse FORM). These methods can be used not only to calculate the entire probability distribution of RUL but also to obtain probability bounds on RUL. This paper explains these three methods in detail and illustrates them using the state-space model of a lithium-ion battery.

Advanced Stirling Convertor Heater Head Durability and Reliability Quantification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krause, David L.; Shah, Ashwin R.; Korovaichuk, Igor; Kalluri, Sreeramesh

2008-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has identified the high efficiency Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) as a candidate power source for long duration Science missions, such as lunar applications, Mars rovers, and deep space missions, that require reliable design lifetimes of up to 17 years. Resistance to creep deformation of the MarM-247 heater head (HH), a structurally critical component of the ASRG Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC), under high temperatures (up to 850 C) is a key design driver for durability. Inherent uncertainties in the creep behavior of the thin-walled HH and the variations in the wall thickness, control temperature, and working gas pressure need to be accounted for in the life and reliability prediction. Due to the availability of very limited test data, assuring life and reliability of the HH is a challenging task. The NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has adopted an integrated approach combining available uniaxial MarM-247 material behavior testing, HH benchmark testing and advanced analysis in order to demonstrate the integrity, life and reliability of the HH under expected mission conditions. The proposed paper describes analytical aspects of the deterministic and probabilistic approaches and results. The deterministic approach involves development of the creep constitutive model for the MarM-247 (akin to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory master curve model used previously for Inconel 718 (Special Metals Corporation)) and nonlinear finite element analysis to predict the mean life. The probabilistic approach includes evaluation of the effect of design variable uncertainties in material creep behavior, geometry and operating conditions on life and reliability for the expected life. The sensitivity of the uncertainties in the design variables on the HH reliability is also quantified, and guidelines to improve reliability are discussed.

Probabilistic sizing of laminates with uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, A. R.; Liaw, D. G.; Chamis, C. C.

1993-01-01

A reliability based design methodology for laminate sizing and configuration for a special case of composite structures is described. The methodology combines probabilistic composite mechanics with probabilistic structural analysis. The uncertainties of constituent materials (fiber and matrix) to predict macroscopic behavior are simulated using probabilistic theory. Uncertainties in the degradation of composite material properties are included in this design methodology. A multi-factor interaction equation is used to evaluate load and environment dependent degradation of the composite material properties at the micromechanics level. The methodology is integrated into a computer code IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures). Versatility of this design approach is demonstrated by performing a multi-level probabilistic analysis to size the laminates for design structural reliability of random type structures. The results show that laminate configurations can be selected to improve the structural reliability from three failures in 1000, to no failures in one million. Results also show that the laminates with the highest reliability are the least sensitive to the loading conditions.

Reliability analysis and fault-tolerant system development for a redundant strapdown inertial measurement unit. [inertial platforms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Motyka, P.

1983-01-01

A methodology is developed and applied for quantitatively analyzing the reliability of a dual, fail-operational redundant strapdown inertial measurement unit (RSDIMU). A Markov evaluation model is defined in terms of the operational states of the RSDIMU to predict system reliability. A 27 state model is defined based upon a candidate redundancy management system which can detect and isolate a spectrum of failure magnitudes. The results of parametric studies are presented which show the effect on reliability of the gyro failure rate, both the gyro and accelerometer failure rates together, false alarms, probability of failure detection, probability of failure isolation, and probability of damage effects and mission time. A technique is developed and evaluated for generating dynamic thresholds for detecting and isolating failures of the dual, separated IMU. Special emphasis is given to the detection of multiple, nonconcurrent failures. Digital simulation time histories are presented which show the thresholds obtained and their effectiveness in detecting and isolating sensor failures.

Life Participation for Parents: a tool for family-centered occupational therapy.

PubMed

Fingerhut, Patricia E

2013-01-01

This study describes the continued development of the Life Participation for Parents (LPP), a measurement tool to facilitate family-centered pediatric practice. LPP questionnaires were completed by 162 parents of children with special needs receiving intervention at 15 pediatric private practice clinics. Results were analyzed to establish instrument reliability and validity. Good internal consistency (α = .90) and test-retest reliability (r = .89) were established. Construct validity was examined through assessment of internal structure and comparison of the instrument to related variables. A principal components analysis resulted in a two-factor model accounting for 43.81% of the variance. As hypothesized, the LPP correlated only moderately with the Parenting Stress Index-Short Form (r = .54). The variables of child's diagnoses, age, and time in therapy did not predict parental responses. The LPP is a reliable and valid instrument for measuring satisfaction with parental participation in life occupations. Copyright © 2013 by the American Occupational Therapy Association, Inc.

Comparing Validity and Reliability in Special Education Title II and IDEA Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steinbrecher, Trisha D.; McKeown, Debra; Walther-Thomas, Chriss

2013-01-01

Previous researchers have found that special education teacher shortages are pervasive and exacerbated by federal policies regarding "highly qualified" teacher requirements. The authors examined special education teacher personnel data from 2 federal data sources to determine if these sources offer a reliable and valid means of…

Theory of mind predicts severity level in autism.

PubMed

Hoogenhout, Michelle; Malcolm-Smith, Susan

2017-02-01

We investigated whether theory of mind skills can indicate autism spectrum disorder severity. In all, 62 children with autism spectrum disorder completed a developmentally sensitive theory of mind battery. We used intelligence quotient, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed.) diagnosis and level of support needed as indicators of severity level. Using hierarchical cluster analysis, we found three distinct clusters of theory of mind ability: early-developing theory of mind (Cluster 1), false-belief reasoning (Cluster 2) and sophisticated theory of mind understanding (Cluster 3). The clusters corresponded to severe, moderate and mild autism spectrum disorder. As an indicator of level of support needed, cluster grouping predicted the type of school children attended. All Cluster 1 children attended autism-specific schools; Cluster 2 was divided between autism-specific and special needs schools and nearly all Cluster 3 children attended general special needs and mainstream schools. Assessing theory of mind skills can reliably discriminate severity levels within autism spectrum disorder.

The New IERS Special Bureau for Loading (SBL)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

vanDam, Tonie; Plag, Hans-Peter; Blewitt, Geoffrey; Boy, Jean-Paul; Francis, Olivier; Gegout, Pascal; Kierulf, Halfdan Pascal; Sato, Tadahiro; Scherneck, Hans-Georg; Wahr, John

2002-01-01

Currently, the establishment of the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) Special Bureau for Loading (SBL) is in progress as part of the IERS Global Geophysical Fluids Center (GGFC). The main purpose of the SBL is to provide reliable, consistent model predictions of loading signals that have been thoroughly tested and validated. The products will describe at least the surface deformation, gravity signal and geo-center variations due to the various surface loading processes in reference frames relevant for direct comparison with existing geodetic observing techniques. To achieve these goals, major scientific advances are required with respect to the Earth model, the theory and algorithms used to model deformations of the Earth as well as improvements in the observational data related to surface loading.

Micromechanical analysis of thermo-inelastic multiphase short-fiber composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aboudi, Jacob

1994-01-01

A micromechanical formulation is presented for the prediction of the overall thermo-inelastic behavior of multiphase composites which consist of short fibers. The analysis is an extension of the generalized method of cells that was previously derived for inelastic composites with continuous fibers, and the reliability of which was critically examined in several situations. The resulting three dimensional formulation is extremely general, wherein the analysis of thermo-inelastic composites with continuous fibers as well as particulate and porous inelastic materials are merely special cases.

75 FR 50853 - Special Conditions: Cirrus Design Corporation Model SF50 Airplane; Function and Reliability Testing

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-18

... airplanes. 1. Function and Reliability Testing. Flight tests: In place of 14 CFR 21.35(b)(2), the following...; Function and Reliability Testing AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Final special... to CAR part 3 became effective January 15, 1951, and deleted the service test requirements in Section...

75 FR 29962 - Special Conditions: Cirrus Design Corporation Model SF50 Airplane; Function and Reliability Testing

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-28

... SF50 airplanes. 1. Function and Reliability Testing Flight tests: In place of 14 CFR part 21.35(b)(2... Reliability Testing AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of proposed special..., 1951, and deleted the service test requirements in Section 3.19 for airplanes of 6,000 pounds maximum...

Variations in cerebral organization as a function of handedness, hand posture in writing, and sex.

PubMed

Levy, J; Reid, M

1978-06-01

During the past century, it has become increasingly apparent that there is a great deal of variation in the direction and degree of cerebral lateralization, a plurality of people having language and related functions strongly specialized to the left hemisphere and visuospatial functions strongly specialized to the right, with substantial minorities manifesting various deviations from this pattern. In particular, in 35%-50% of sinistrals and 1%-10% of dextrals, the right hemisphere is specialized for linguistic skills, and in some unknown fraction of the two handedness groups, verbal and/or spatial abilities are, to varying extents, bilateralized. Levy (1973) suggested that the hand posture adopted during writing might be an index of the lateral relationship between the dominant writing hand and the language hemisphere, a normal posture indicating contralateral language specialization, and an inverted posture indicating ipsilateral language specialization. In the present investigation, two tachistoscopic tests of cerebral lateralization, one measuring spatial functions and one measuring verbal function, were administered to 73 subjects classified by handedness, hand posture during writing, and sex. Among both dextral and sinistral subjects with a normal writing posture, language and spatial functions were specialized to the contralateral and ipsilateral hemispheres, respectively, and lateral differentiation of the brain was strong. The reverse was seen in subjects having an inverted writing posture. In all groups, females were less laterally differentiated than males. In 70 out of 73 subjects, the direction of cerebral laterization was accurately predicted by handedness and hand posture. The 3 subjects (2 females and 1 male) who failed to manifest the predicted relations were all left-handers having an inverted hand posture . In this group, lateral differentiation was so weak that the reliability of the tachistoscopic tests was reduced, and we attribute these three predictive failures to this cause. Thus, almost all of the variation in the lateral organization of the brain was accounted for by handedness, hand posture, and sex.

Transfer of infrared thermography predictive maintenance technologies to Soviet-designed nuclear power plants: experience at Chernobyl

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pugh, Ray; Huff, Roy

1999-03-01

The importance of infrared (IR) technology and analysis in today's world of predictive maintenance and reliability- centered maintenance cannot be understated. The use of infrared is especially important in facilities that are required to maintain a high degree of equipment reliability because of plant or public safety concerns. As with all maintenance tools, particularly those used in predictive maintenance approaches, training plays a key role in their effectiveness and the benefit gained from their use. This paper details an effort to transfer IR technology to Soviet- designed nuclear power plants in Russia, Ukraine, and Lithuania. Delivery of this technology and post-delivery training activities have been completed recently at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine. Many interesting challenges were encountered during this effort. Hardware procurement and delivery of IR technology to a sensitive country were complicated by United States regulations. Freight and shipping infrastructure and host-country customs policies complicated hardware transport. Training activities were complicated by special hardware, software and training material translation needs, limited communication opportunities, and site logistical concerns. These challenges and others encountered while supplying the Chornobyl plant with state-of-the-art IR technology are described in this paper.

Inconsistencies in authoritative national paediatric workforce data sources.

PubMed

Allen, Amy R; Doherty, Richard; Hilton, Andrew M; Freed, Gary L

2017-12-01

Objective National health workforce data are used in workforce projections, policy and planning. If data to measure the current effective clinical medical workforce are not consistent, accurate and reliable, policy options pursued may not be aligned with Australia's actual needs. The aim of the present study was to identify any inconsistencies and contradictions in the numerical count of paediatric specialists in Australia, and discuss issues related to the accuracy of collection and analysis of medical workforce data. Methods This study compared respected national data sources regarding the number of medical practitioners in eight fields of paediatric speciality medical (non-surgical) practice. It also counted the number of doctors listed on the websites of speciality paediatric hospitals and clinics as practicing in these eight fields. Results Counts of medical practitioners varied markedly for all specialties across the data sources examined. In some fields examined, the range of variability across data sources exceeded 450%. Conclusions The national datasets currently available from federal and speciality sources do not provide consistent or reliable counts of the number of medical practitioners. The lack of an adequate baseline for the workforce prevents accurate predictions of future needs to provide the best possible care of children in Australia. What is known about the topic? Various national data sources contain counts of the number of medical practitioners in Australia. These data are used in health workforce projections, policy and planning. What does this paper add? The present study found that the current data sources do not provide consistent or reliable counts of the number of practitioners in eight selected fields of paediatric speciality practice. There are several potential issues in the way workforce data are collected or analysed that cause the variation between sources to occur. What are the implications for practitioners? Without accurate data on which to base decision making, policy options may not be aligned with the actual needs of children with various medical needs, in various geographic areas or the nation as a whole.

The preliminary analysis of the reliability and validity of the Chinese Edition of the CSBS DP.

PubMed

Lin, Chu-Sui; Chang, Shu-Hui; Cheng, Shu-Fen; Chao, Pen-Chiang; Chiu, Chun-Hao

2015-03-01

This study marked a preliminary attempt to standardize the Chinese Edition of the Communication and Symbolic Behavior Scales Developmental Profile (Wetherby & Prizant, 2002; CSBS DP) to assist in the early identification of young children with special needs in Taiwan. The study was conducted among 171 infants and toddlers aged 1-2. It also included a follow-up study one year after the initial test. Three domestically developed standardized child development inventories were used to measure the concurrent validity and predictive validity. The Chinese Edition of the CSBS DP demonstrated overall good test-retest and inter-rater reliability. It also showed good concurrent and predictive validity. The current study yields preliminary evidence that the Chinese Edition of the CSBS DP could be a valuable assessment tool worthy of wider distribution. Future research should employ random sampling to establish a true national norm. Additionally, the follow-up study needs to include atypical groups and to expand to children aged 6-12 months to strengthen the applicability of the instrument in Taiwan. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the probability of exceeding allowable leak rates through degraded steam generator tubes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cizelj, L.; Sorsek, I.; Riesch-Oppermann, H.

1997-02-01

This paper discusses some possible ways of predicting the behavior of the total leak rate through the damaged steam generator tubes. This failure mode is of special concern in cases where most through-wall defects may remain In operation. A particular example is the application of alternate (bobbin coil voltage) plugging criterion to Outside Diameter Stress Corrosion Cracking at the tube support plate intersections. It is the authors aim to discuss some possible modeling options that could be applied to solve the problem formulated as: Estimate the probability that the sum of all individual leak rates through degraded tubes exceeds themore » predefined acceptable value. The probabilistic approach is of course aiming at reliable and computationaly bearable estimate of the failure probability. A closed form solution is given for a special case of exponentially distributed individual leak rates. Also, some possibilities for the use of computationaly efficient First and Second Order Reliability Methods (FORM and SORM) are discussed. The first numerical example compares the results of approximate methods with closed form results. SORM in particular shows acceptable agreement. The second numerical example considers a realistic case of NPP in Krsko, Slovenia.« less

The relationships between floral traits and specificity of pollination systems in three Scandinavian plant communities.

PubMed

Lázaro, Amparo; Hegland, Stein Joar; Totland, Orjan

2008-08-01

The pollination syndrome hypothesis has provided a major conceptual framework for how plants and pollinators interact. However, the assumption of specialization in pollination systems and the reliability of floral traits in predicting the main pollinators have been questioned recently. In addition, the relationship between ecological and evolutionary specialization in pollination interactions is still poorly understood. We used data of 62 plant species from three communities across southern Norway to test: (1) the relationships between floral traits and the identity of pollinators, (2) the association between floral traits (evolutionary specialization) and ecological generalization, and (3) the consistency of both relationships across communities. Floral traits significantly affected the identity of pollinators in the three communities in a way consistent with the predictions derived from the pollination syndrome concept. However, hover flies and butterflies visited flowers with different shapes in different communities, which we mainly attribute to among-community variation in pollinator assemblages. Interestingly, ecological generalization depended more on the community-context (i.e. the plant and pollinator assemblages in the communities) than on specific floral traits. While open yellow and white flowers were the most generalist in two communities, they were the most specialist in the alpine community. Our results warn against the use of single measures of ecological generalization to question the pollination syndrome concept, and highlight the importance of community comparisons to assess the pollination syndromes, and to understand the relationships between ecological and evolutionary specialization in plant-pollinator interactions.

An Application of Con-Resistant Trust to Improve the Reliability of Special Protection Systems within the Smart Grid

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

in an effort to be more reliable and efficient. However, with the benefits of this new technology comes added risk . This research utilizes a con ...AN APPLICATION OF CON -RESISTANT TRUST TO IMPROVE THE RELIABILITY OF SPECIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS WITHIN THE SMART GRID THESIS Crystal M. Shipman...Government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States AFIT/GCO/ENG/12-22 AN APPLICATION OF CON -RESISTANT TRUST TO IMPROVE THE

Engineering bacterial translation initiation - Do we have all the tools we need?

PubMed

Vigar, Justin R J; Wieden, Hans-Joachim

2017-11-01

Reliable tools that allow precise and predictable control over gene expression are critical for the success of nearly all bioengineering applications. Translation initiation is the most regulated phase during protein biosynthesis, and is therefore a promising target for exerting control over gene expression. At the translational level, the copy number of a protein can be fine-tuned by altering the interaction between the translation initiation region of an mRNA and the ribosome. These interactions can be controlled by modulating the mRNA structure using numerous approaches, including small molecule ligands, RNAs, or RNA-binding proteins. A variety of naturally occurring regulatory elements have been repurposed, facilitating advances in synthetic gene regulation strategies. The pursuit of a comprehensive understanding of mechanisms governing translation initiation provides the framework for future engineering efforts. Here we outline state-of-the-art strategies used to predictably control translation initiation in bacteria. We also discuss current limitations in the field and future goals. Due to its function as the rate-determining step, initiation is the ideal point to exert effective translation regulation. Several engineering tools are currently available to rationally design the initiation characteristics of synthetic mRNAs. However, improvements are required to increase the predictability, effectiveness, and portability of these tools. Predictable and reliable control over translation initiation will allow greater predictability when designing, constructing, and testing genetic circuits. The ability to build more complex circuits predictably will advance synthetic biology and contribute to our fundamental understanding of the underlying principles of these processes. "This article is part of a Special Issue entitled "Biochemistry of Synthetic Biology - Recent Developments" Guest Editor: Dr. Ilka Heinemann and Dr. Patrick O'Donoghue. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical modelling of software reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Douglas R.

1991-01-01

During the six-month period from 1 April 1991 to 30 September 1991 the following research papers in statistical modeling of software reliability appeared: (1) A Nonparametric Software Reliability Growth Model; (2) On the Use and the Performance of Software Reliability Growth Models; (3) Research and Development Issues in Software Reliability Engineering; (4) Special Issues on Software; and (5) Software Reliability and Safety.

Forecasting near-surface weather conditions and precipitation in Alaska's Prince William Sound with the PWS-WRF modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsson, Peter Q.; Volz, Karl P.; Liu, Haibo

2013-07-01

In the summer of 2009, several scientific teams engaged in a field program in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska to test an end-to-end atmosphere/ocean prediction system specially designed for this region. The "Sound Predictions Field Experiment" (FE) was a test of the PWS-Observing System (PWS-OS) and the culmination of a five-year program to develop an observational and prediction system for the Sound. This manuscript reports on results of an 18-day high-resolution atmospheric forecasting field project using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.Special attention was paid to surface meteorological properties and precipitation. Upon reviewing the results of the real-time forecasts, modifications were incorporated in the PWS-WRF modeling system in an effort to improve objective forecast skill. Changes were both geometric (model grid structure) and physical (different physics parameterizations).The weather during the summer-time FE was typical of the PWS in that it was characterized by a number of minor disturbances rotating around an anchored low, but with no major storms in the Gulf of Alaska. The basic PWS-WRF modeling system as implemented operationally for the FE performed well, especially considering the extremely complex terrain comprising the greater PWS region.Modifications to the initial PWS-WRF modeling system showed improvement in predicting surface variables, especially where the ambient flow interacted strongly with the terrain. Prediction of precipitation on an accumulated basis was more accurate than prediction on a day-to-day basis. The 18-day period was too short to provide reliable assessment and intercomparison of the quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) skill of the PWS-WRF model variants.

Validity of the Special Needs Education Assessment Tool (SNEAT), a Newly Developed Scale for Children with Disabilities.

PubMed

Kohara, Aiko; Han, ChangWan; Kwon, HaeJin; Kohzuki, Masahiro

2015-11-01

The improvement of the quality of life (QOL) of children with disabilities has been considered important. Therefore, the Special Needs Education Assessment Tool (SNEAT) was developed based on the concept of QOL to objectively evaluate the educational outcome of children with disabilities. SNEAT consists of 11 items in three domains: physical functioning, mental health, and social functioning. This study aimed to verify the reliability and construct validity of SNEAT using 93 children collected from the classes on independent activities of daily living for children with disabilities in Okinawa Prefecture between October and November 2014. Survey data were collected in a longitudinal prospective cohort study. The reliability of SNEAT was verified via the internal consistency method and the test-pretest method; both the coefficient of Cronbach's α and the intra-class correlation coefficient were over 0.7. The validity of SNEAT was also verified via one-way repeated-measures ANOVA and the latent growth curve model. The scores of all the items and domains and the total scores obtained from one-way repeated-measures ANOVA were the same as the predicted scores. SNEAT is valid based on its goodness-of-fit values obtained using the latent growth curve model, where the values of comparative fit index (0.983) and root mean square error of approximation (0.062) were within the goodness-of-fit range. These results indicate that SNEAT has high reliability and construct validity and may contribute to improve QOL of children with disabilities in the classes on independent activities of daily living for children with disabilities.

Impact of relationships between test and training animals and among training animals on reliability of genomic prediction.

PubMed

Wu, X; Lund, M S; Sun, D; Zhang, Q; Su, G

2015-10-01

One of the factors affecting the reliability of genomic prediction is the relationship among the animals of interest. This study investigated the reliability of genomic prediction in various scenarios with regard to the relationship between test and training animals, and among animals within the training data set. Different training data sets were generated from EuroGenomics data and a group of Nordic Holstein bulls (born in 2005 and afterwards) as a common test data set. Genomic breeding values were predicted using a genomic best linear unbiased prediction model and a Bayesian mixture model. The results showed that a closer relationship between test and training animals led to a higher reliability of genomic predictions for the test animals, while a closer relationship among training animals resulted in a lower reliability. In addition, the Bayesian mixture model in general led to a slightly higher reliability of genomic prediction, especially for the scenario of distant relationships between training and test animals. Therefore, to prevent a decrease in reliability, constant updates of the training population with animals from more recent generations are required. Moreover, a training population consisting of less-related animals is favourable for reliability of genomic prediction. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

A clinical test of stepping and change of direction to identify multiple falling older adults.

PubMed

Dite, Wayne; Temple, Viviene A

2002-11-01

To establish the reliability and validity of a new clinical test of dynamic standing balance, the Four Square Step Test (FSST), to evaluate its sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value in identifying subjects who fall, and to compare it with 3 established balance and mobility tests. A 3-group comparison performed by using 3 validated tests and 1 new test. A rehabilitation center and university medical school in Australia. Eighty-one community-dwelling adults over the age of 65 years. Subjects were age- and gender-matched to form 3 groups: multiple fallers, nonmultiple fallers, and healthy comparisons. Not applicable. Time to complete the FSST and Timed Up and Go test and the number of steps to complete the Step Test and Functional Reach Test distance. High reliability was found for interrater (n=30, intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC]=.99) and retest reliability (n=20, ICC=.98). Evidence for validity was found through correlation with other existing balance tests. Validity was supported, with the FSST showing significantly better performance scores (P<.01) for each of the healthier and less impaired groups. The FSST also revealed a sensitivity of 85%, a specificity of 88% to 100%, and a positive predictive value of 86%. As a clinical test, the FSST is reliable, valid, easy to score, quick to administer, requires little space, and needs no special equipment. It is unique in that it involves stepping over low objects (2.5cm) and movement in 4 directions. The FSST had higher combined sensitivity and specificity for identifying differences between groups in the selected sample population of older adults than the 3 tests with which it was compared. Copyright 2002 by the American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine and the American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation

78 FR 36084 - Special Conditions: Cirrus Design Corporation Model SF50 Airplane; Function and Reliability...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-17

...; Special Conditions No. 23-248-SC] Special Conditions: Cirrus Design Corporation Model SF50 Airplane... granting special conditions for the Cirrus Design Corporation model SF50 airplane. We are withdrawing... Special Condition No. 23-248- SC for the Cirrus Design Corporation new model SF50 ``Vision'' Jet. The SF50...

Hybrid Microcircuit Failure Rate Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-04-01

4.52E-2 8.31E-2 300 Test 3.11E7 4 7.39E-2 1.29)E-l 2.16E-1 350 Test 2.07E7 8 2.69E-1 3.,98E-1 5.50E-1 19 AN .5 .11 0 * .01 𔃾J .4-4 4--I 0 14 .00 1 4.1...Traeger (Ref. 2 and Ref. 3) have shown that organic die attach materials outgas harmful products which may drastically reduce the reliability of a...manufacturers using organic die attach methods must take special precautions to insure that the material used does not outgas exten! sively. Parts

A study of fault prediction and reliability assessment in the SEL environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Basili, Victor R.; Patnaik, Debabrata

1986-01-01

An empirical study on estimation and prediction of faults, prediction of fault detection and correction effort, and reliability assessment in the Software Engineering Laboratory environment (SEL) is presented. Fault estimation using empirical relationships and fault prediction using curve fitting method are investigated. Relationships between debugging efforts (fault detection and correction effort) in different test phases are provided, in order to make an early estimate of future debugging effort. This study concludes with the fault analysis, application of a reliability model, and analysis of a normalized metric for reliability assessment and reliability monitoring during development of software.

Origins and ecological consequences of pollen specialization among desert bees.

PubMed

Minckley, R L; Cane, J H; Kervin, L

2000-02-07

An understanding of the evolutionary origins of insect foraging specialization is often hindered by a poor biogeographical and palaeoecological record. The historical biogeography (20,000 years before present to the present) of the desert-limited plant, creosote bush (Larrea tridentata), is remarkably complete. This history coupled with the distribution pattern of its bee fauna suggests pollen specialization for creosote bush pollen has evolved repeatedly among bees in the Lower Sonoran and Mojave deserts. In these highly xeric, floristically depauperate environments, species of specialist bees surpass generalist bees in diversity, biomass and abundance. The ability of specialist bees to facultatively remain in diapause through resource-poor years and to emerge synchronously with host plant bloom in resource-rich years probably explains their ecological dominance and persistence in these areas. Repeated origins of pollen specialization to one host plant where bloom occurs least predictably is a counter-example to prevailing theories that postulate such traits originate where the plant grows best and blooms most reliably Host-plant synchronization, a paucity of alternative floral hosts, or flowering attributes of creosote bush alone or in concert may account for the diversity of bee specialists that depend on this plant instead of nutritional factors or chemical coevolution between floral rewards and the pollinators they have evolved to attract.

Probabilistic assessment of dynamic system performance. Part 3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Belhadj, Mohamed

1993-01-01

Accurate prediction of dynamic system failure behavior can be important for the reliability and risk analyses of nuclear power plants, as well as for their backfitting to satisfy given constraints on overall system reliability, or optimization of system performance. Global analysis of dynamic systems through investigating the variations in the structure of the attractors of the system and the domains of attraction of these attractors as a function of the system parameters is also important for nuclear technology in order to understand the fault-tolerance as well as the safety margins of the system under consideration and to insure a safemore » operation of nuclear reactors. Such a global analysis would be particularly relevant to future reactors with inherent or passive safety features that are expected to rely on natural phenomena rather than active components to achieve and maintain safe shutdown. Conventionally, failure and global analysis of dynamic systems necessitate the utilization of different methodologies which have computational limitations on the system size that can be handled. Using a Chapman-Kolmogorov interpretation of system dynamics, a theoretical basis is developed that unifies these methodologies as special cases and which can be used for a comprehensive safety and reliability analysis of dynamic systems.« less

Burgers approximation for two-dimensional flow past an ellipse

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dorrepaal, J. M.

1982-01-01

A linearization of the Navier-Stokes equation due to Burgers in which vorticity is transported by the velocity field corresponding to continuous potential flow is examined. The governing equations are solved exactly for the two dimensional steady flow past an ellipse of arbitrary aspect ratio. The requirement of no slip along the surface of the ellipse results in an infinite algebraic system of linear equations for coefficients appearing in the solution. The system is truncated at a point which gives reliable results for Reynolds numbers R in the range 0 R 5. Predictions of the Burgers approximation regarding separation, drag and boundary layer behavior are investigated. In particular, Burgers linearization gives drag coefficients which are closer to observed experimental values than those obtained from Oseen's approximation. In the special case of flow past a circular cylinder, Burgers approximation predicts a boundary layer whose thickness is roughly proportional to R-1/2.

Modeling the NF-κB mediated inflammatory response predicts cytokine waves in tissue

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Waves propagating in "excitable media" is a reliable way to transmit signals in space. A fascinating example where living cells comprise such a medium is Dictyostelium D. which propagates waves of chemoattractant to attract distant cells. While neutrophils chemotax in a similar fashion as Dictyostelium D., it is unclear if chemoattractant waves exist in mammalian tissues and what mechanisms could propagate them. Results We propose that chemoattractant cytokine waves may naturally develop as a result of NF-κB response. Using a heuristic mathematical model of NF-κB-like circuits coupled in space we show that the known characteristics of NF-κB response favor cytokine waves. Conclusions While the propagating wave of cytokines is generally beneficial for inflammation resolution, our model predicts that there exist special conditions that can cause chronic inflammation and re-occurrence of acute inflammatory response. PMID:21771307

Some Reliability Issues in Very Large Databases.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lynch, Clifford A.

1988-01-01

Describes the unique reliability problems of very large databases that necessitate specialized techniques for hardware problem management. The discussion covers the use of controlled partial redundancy to improve reliability, issues in operating systems and database management systems design, and the impact of disk technology on very large…

Modeling and simulation of reliability of unmanned intelligent vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Harpreet; Dixit, Arati M.; Mustapha, Adam; Singh, Kuldip; Aggarwal, K. K.; Gerhart, Grant R.

2008-04-01

Unmanned ground vehicles have a large number of scientific, military and commercial applications. A convoy of such vehicles can have collaboration and coordination. For the movement of such a convoy, it is important to predict the reliability of the system. A number of approaches are available in literature which describes the techniques for determining the reliability of the system. Graph theoretic approaches are popular in determining terminal reliability and system reliability. In this paper we propose to exploit Fuzzy and Neuro-Fuzzy approaches for predicting the node and branch reliability of the system while Boolean algebra approaches are used to determine terminal reliability and system reliability. Hence a combination of intelligent approaches like Fuzzy, Neuro-Fuzzy and Boolean approaches is used to predict the overall system reliability of a convoy of vehicles. The node reliabilities may correspond to the collaboration of vehicles while branch reliabilities will determine the terminal reliabilities between different nodes. An algorithm is proposed for determining the system reliabilities of a convoy of vehicles. The simulation of the overall system is proposed. Such simulation should be helpful to the commander to take an appropriate action depending on the predicted reliability in different terrain and environmental conditions. It is hoped that results of this paper will lead to more important techniques to have a reliable convoy of vehicles in a battlefield.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Puskar, Joseph David; Quintana, Michael A.; Sorensen, Neil Robert

A program is underway at Sandia National Laboratories to predict long-term reliability of photovoltaic (PV) systems. The vehicle for the reliability predictions is a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD), which models system behavior. Because this model is based mainly on field failure and repair times, it can be used to predict current reliability, but it cannot currently be used to accurately predict lifetime. In order to be truly predictive, physics-informed degradation processes and failure mechanisms need to be included in the model. This paper describes accelerated life testing of metal foil tapes used in thin-film PV modules, and how tape jointmore » degradation, a possible failure mode, can be incorporated into the model.« less

Customer-Driven Reliability Models for Multistate Coherent Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-01-01

AENCYUSEONLY(Leae bank)2. RPO- COVERED 1 11992DISSERTATION 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Customer -Driven Reliability Models For Multistate Coherent...UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA GRADUATE COLLEGE CUSTOMER -DRIVEN RELIABILITY MODELS FOR MULTISTATE COHERENT SYSTEMS A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE FACULTY...BOEDIGHEIMER I Norman, Oklahoma Distribution/ Av~ilability Codes 1992 A vil andior Dist Special CUSTOMER -DRIVEN RELIABILITY MODELS FOR MULTISTATE

Down syndrome and neurofibromatosis: a case report.

PubMed

Schaffer, Rebecca; Goss, Lindsay; Romer, Maureen Munnelly; Kalamchi, Sabah

2014-01-01

The dental management of a patient presenting with both Down syndrome and neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) has not previously been described well in the dental literature. A 20-year-old male with both of these genetic anomalies sought comprehensive treatment at the Special Needs Dental clinic at the Arizona School of Dentistry and Oral Health. He presented with multiple decayed surfaces, retained primary teeth, and intra/extra oral soft tissue tumors. Dental extractions and tumor reduction surgery took place at a private dental office due to the need for intravenous sedation for patient management. At the conclusion of the patient's -treatment, while his oral health was improved, there was little improvement in the facial aesthetics of his case. Coordinating care among health care providers in a patient with Trisomy 21 and NF1 is essential for a reliable and predictable outcome. However, as neurofibromas are often known to recur, the treatment risks and advantages should be reviewed prior to surgical intervention. © 2013 Special Care Dentistry Association and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Test-Retest Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Implicit Association Test in Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rae, James R.; Olson, Kristina R.

2018-01-01

The Implicit Association Test (IAT) is increasingly used in developmental research despite minimal evidence of whether children's IAT scores are reliable across time or predictive of behavior. When test-retest reliability and predictive validity have been assessed, the results have been mixed, and because these studies have differed on many…

Genomic prediction using imputed whole-genome sequence data in Holstein Friesian cattle.

PubMed

van Binsbergen, Rianne; Calus, Mario P L; Bink, Marco C A M; van Eeuwijk, Fred A; Schrooten, Chris; Veerkamp, Roel F

2015-09-17

In contrast to currently used single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) panels, the use of whole-genome sequence data is expected to enable the direct estimation of the effects of causal mutations on a given trait. This could lead to higher reliabilities of genomic predictions compared to those based on SNP genotypes. Also, at each generation of selection, recombination events between a SNP and a mutation can cause decay in reliability of genomic predictions based on markers rather than on the causal variants. Our objective was to investigate the use of imputed whole-genome sequence genotypes versus high-density SNP genotypes on (the persistency of) the reliability of genomic predictions using real cattle data. Highly accurate phenotypes based on daughter performance and Illumina BovineHD Beadchip genotypes were available for 5503 Holstein Friesian bulls. The BovineHD genotypes (631,428 SNPs) of each bull were used to impute whole-genome sequence genotypes (12,590,056 SNPs) using the Beagle software. Imputation was done using a multi-breed reference panel of 429 sequenced individuals. Genomic estimated breeding values for three traits were predicted using a Bayesian stochastic search variable selection (BSSVS) model and a genome-enabled best linear unbiased prediction model (GBLUP). Reliabilities of predictions were based on 2087 validation bulls, while the other 3416 bulls were used for training. Prediction reliabilities ranged from 0.37 to 0.52. BSSVS performed better than GBLUP in all cases. Reliabilities of genomic predictions were slightly lower with imputed sequence data than with BovineHD chip data. Also, the reliabilities tended to be lower for both sequence data and BovineHD chip data when relationships between training animals were low. No increase in persistency of prediction reliability using imputed sequence data was observed. Compared to BovineHD genotype data, using imputed sequence data for genomic prediction produced no advantage. To investigate the putative advantage of genomic prediction using (imputed) sequence data, a training set with a larger number of individuals that are distantly related to each other and genomic prediction models that incorporate biological information on the SNPs or that apply stricter SNP pre-selection should be considered.

Tracking reliability for space cabin-borne equipment in development by Crow model.

PubMed

Chen, J D; Jiao, S J; Sun, H L

2001-12-01

Objective. To study and track the reliability growth of manned spaceflight cabin-borne equipment in the course of its development. Method. A new technique of reliability growth estimation and prediction, which is composed of the Crow model and test data conversion (TDC) method was used. Result. The estimation and prediction value of the reliability growth conformed to its expectations. Conclusion. The method could dynamically estimate and predict the reliability of the equipment by making full use of various test information in the course of its development. It offered not only a possibility of tracking the equipment reliability growth, but also the reference for quality control in manned spaceflight cabin-borne equipment design and development process.

Assessing Special Needs of Students with Hearing Impairment in Jordan and Its Relation to Some Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

El-Zraigat, Ibrahim A.

2013-01-01

The main purpose of the present study was to assess special needs for students with hearing impairment. The sample of the study consisted of 231 students enrolled at schools for deaf children in Jordan, 113 males and 118 females. A special needs scale was developed and used in assessing special needs for students. The reliability and validity of…

Prediction of Software Reliability using Bio Inspired Soft Computing Techniques.

PubMed

Diwaker, Chander; Tomar, Pradeep; Poonia, Ramesh C; Singh, Vijander

2018-04-10

A lot of models have been made for predicting software reliability. The reliability models are restricted to using particular types of methodologies and restricted number of parameters. There are a number of techniques and methodologies that may be used for reliability prediction. There is need to focus on parameters consideration while estimating reliability. The reliability of a system may increase or decreases depending on the selection of different parameters used. Thus there is need to identify factors that heavily affecting the reliability of the system. In present days, reusability is mostly used in the various area of research. Reusability is the basis of Component-Based System (CBS). The cost, time and human skill can be saved using Component-Based Software Engineering (CBSE) concepts. CBSE metrics may be used to assess those techniques which are more suitable for estimating system reliability. Soft computing is used for small as well as large-scale problems where it is difficult to find accurate results due to uncertainty or randomness. Several possibilities are available to apply soft computing techniques in medicine related problems. Clinical science of medicine using fuzzy-logic, neural network methodology significantly while basic science of medicine using neural-networks-genetic algorithm most frequently and preferably. There is unavoidable interest shown by medical scientists to use the various soft computing methodologies in genetics, physiology, radiology, cardiology and neurology discipline. CBSE boost users to reuse the past and existing software for making new products to provide quality with a saving of time, memory space, and money. This paper focused on assessment of commonly used soft computing technique like Genetic Algorithm (GA), Neural-Network (NN), Fuzzy Logic, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Artificial Bee Colony (ABC). This paper presents working of soft computing techniques and assessment of soft computing techniques to predict reliability. The parameter considered while estimating and prediction of reliability are also discussed. This study can be used in estimation and prediction of the reliability of various instruments used in the medical system, software engineering, computer engineering and mechanical engineering also. These concepts can be applied to both software and hardware, to predict the reliability using CBSE.

The Gross Motor Function Classification System Family Report Questionnaire: reliability between special-education teachers and caregivers.

PubMed

Ramrit, Sirinun; Yonglitthipagon, Ponlapat; Janyacharoen, Taweesak; Emasithi, Alongkot; Siritaratiwat, Wantana

2017-05-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the reliability of the Thai Gross Motor Function Classification System Family Report Questionnaire (GMFCS-FR) and the possibility of special-education teachers and caregivers in the community using this system in children with cerebral palsy (CP). The reliability was examined by two teachers and two caregivers who classified 21 children with CP aged 2 to 12 years. A GMFCS-FR workshop was organized for raters. The teachers and caregivers classified the mobility of 362 children. The rater reliability was analysed using the weighted kappa coefficient. The possibility of using the GMFCS-FR is reported. The reliability of using the GMFCS-FR in the community was analysed by the intraclass correlation coefficient. The intrarater reliability ranged from 0.91 to 1.00. The interrater reliability between teachers was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.69-0.97) and between caregivers was 0.84 (95% CI 0.70-0.97). Ninety-seven percent of raters used the Thai GMFCS-FR correctly. The overall intraclass correlation coefficient between raters was 0.90 (95% CI 0.88-0.92). The Thai GMFCS-FR is a reliable system for classifying the motor function of young children with CP by teachers and caregivers in the community. © 2016 Mac Keith Press.

Composite Stress Rupture: A New Reliability Model Based on Strength Decay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reeder, James R.

2012-01-01

A model is proposed to estimate reliability for stress rupture of composite overwrap pressure vessels (COPVs) and similar composite structures. This new reliability model is generated by assuming a strength degradation (or decay) over time. The model suggests that most of the strength decay occurs late in life. The strength decay model will be shown to predict a response similar to that predicted by a traditional reliability model for stress rupture based on tests at a single stress level. In addition, the model predicts that even though there is strength decay due to proof loading, a significant overall increase in reliability is gained by eliminating any weak vessels, which would fail early. The model predicts that there should be significant periods of safe life following proof loading, because time is required for the strength to decay from the proof stress level to the subsequent loading level. Suggestions for testing the strength decay reliability model have been made. If the strength decay reliability model predictions are shown through testing to be accurate, COPVs may be designed to carry a higher level of stress than is currently allowed, which will enable the production of lighter structures

The Transition Readiness Assessment Questionnaire (TRAQ): its factor structure, reliability, and validity.

PubMed

Wood, David L; Sawicki, Gregory S; Miller, M David; Smotherman, Carmen; Lukens-Bull, Katryne; Livingood, William C; Ferris, Maria; Kraemer, Dale F

2014-01-01

National consensus statements recommend that providers regularly assess the transition readiness skills of adolescent and young adults (AYA). In 2010 we developed a 29-item version of Transition Readiness Assessment Questionnaire (TRAQ). We reevaluated item performance and factor structure, and reassessed the TRAQ's reliability and validity. We surveyed youth from 3 academic clinics in Jacksonville, Florida; Chapel Hill, North Carolina; and Boston, Massachusetts. Participants were AYA with special health care needs aged 14 to 21 years. From a convenience sample of 306 patients, we conducted item reduction strategies and exploratory factor analysis (EFA). On a second convenience sample of 221 patients, we conducted confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Internal reliability was assessed by Cronbach's alpha and criterion validity. Analyses were conducted by the Wilcoxon rank sum test and mixed linear models. The item reduction and EFA resulted in a 20-item scale with 5 identified subscales. The CFA conducted on a second sample provided a good fit to the data. The overall scale has high reliability overall (Cronbach's alpha = .94) and good reliability for 4 of the 5 subscales (Cronbach's alpha ranging from .90 to .77 in the pooled sample). Each of the 5 subscale scores were significantly higher for adolescents aged 18 years and older versus those younger than 18 (P < .0001) in both univariate and multivariate analyses. The 20-item, 5-factor structure for the TRAQ is supported by EFA and CFA on independent samples and has good internal reliability and criterion validity. Additional work is needed to expand or revise the TRAQ subscales and test their predictive validity. Copyright © 2014 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

NASCOM network: Ground communications reliability report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

A reliability performance analysis of the NASCOM Network circuits is reported. Network performance narrative summary is presented to include significant changes in circuit configurations, current figures, and trends in each trouble category with notable circuit totals specified. Lost time and interruption tables listing circuits which were affected by outages showing their totals category are submitted. A special analysis of circuits with low reliabilities is developed with tables depicting the performance and graphs for individual reliabilities.

Do in-training evaluation reports deserve their bad reputations? A study of the reliability and predictive ability of ITER scores and narrative comments.

PubMed

Ginsburg, Shiphra; Eva, Kevin; Regehr, Glenn

2013-10-01

Although scores on in-training evaluation reports (ITERs) are often criticized for poor reliability and validity, ITER comments may yield valuable information. The authors assessed across-rotation reliability of ITER scores in one internal medicine program, ability of ITER scores and comments to predict postgraduate year three (PGY3) performance, and reliability and incremental predictive validity of attendings' analysis of written comments. Numeric and narrative data from the first two years of ITERs for one cohort of residents at the University of Toronto Faculty of Medicine (2009-2011) were assessed for reliability and predictive validity of third-year performance. Twenty-four faculty attendings rank-ordered comments (without scores) such that each resident was ranked by three faculty. Mean ITER scores and comment rankings were submitted to regression analyses; dependent variables were PGY3 ITER scores and program directors' rankings. Reliabilities of ITER scores across nine rotations for 63 residents were 0.53 for both postgraduate year one (PGY1) and postgraduate year two (PGY2). Interrater reliabilities across three attendings' rankings were 0.83 for PGY1 and 0.79 for PGY2. There were strong correlations between ITER scores and comments within each year (0.72 and 0.70). Regressions revealed that PGY1 and PGY2 ITER scores collectively explained 25% of variance in PGY3 scores and 46% of variance in PGY3 rankings. Comment rankings did not improve predictions. ITER scores across multiple rotations showed decent reliability and predictive validity. Comment ranks did not add to the predictive ability, but correlation analyses suggest that trainee performance can be measured through these comments.

Accuracy of templating the acetabular cup size in Total Hip Replacement using conventional acetate templates on digital radiographs.

PubMed

Krishnamoorthy, Vignesh P; Perumal, Rajamani; Daniel, Alfred J; Poonnoose, Pradeep M

2015-12-01

Templating of the acetabular cup size in Total Hip Replacement (THR) is normally done using conventional radiographs. As these are being replaced by digital radiographs, it has become essential to create a technique of templating using digital films. We describe a technique that involves templating the digital films using the universally available acetate templates for THR without the use of special software. Preoperative digital radiographs of the pelvis were taken with a 30 mm diameter spherical metal ball strapped over the greater trochanter. Using standard acetate templates provided by the implant company on magnified digital radiographs, the size of the metal ball (X mm) and acetabular cup (Y mm) were determined. The size of the acetabular cup to be implanted was estimated using the formula 30*Y/X. The estimated size was compared with the actual size of the cup used at surgery. Using this technique, it was possible to accurately predict the acetabular cup size in 28/40 (70%) of the hips. When the accuracy to within one size was considered, templating was correct in 90% (36/40). When assessed by two independent observers, there was good intra-observer and inter-observer reliability with intra-class correlation coefficient values greater than 0.8. It was possible to accurately and reliably predict the size of the acetabular cup, using acetate templates on digital films, without any digital templates.

A Resource Paper on the Relative Cost of Special Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Osher, Trina; And Others

This resource paper describes two recent studies and one report on special education costs and the methodology used in their analyses. Each study and its data source are summarized with a short discussion on the quality of the data and its usefulness and limitations in generating reliable cost estimates for special education. The paper summarizes…

Reduction of diabetes-related distress predicts improved depressive symptoms: A secondary analysis of the DIAMOS study.

PubMed

Reimer, André; Schmitt, Andreas; Ehrmann, Dominic; Kulzer, Bernhard; Hermanns, Norbert

2017-01-01

Depressive symptoms in people with diabetes are associated with increased risk of adverse outcomes. Although successful psychosocial treatment options are available, little is known about factors that facilitate treatment response for depression in diabetes. This prospective study aims to examine the impact of known risk factors on improvement of depressive symptoms with a special interest in the role of diabetes-related distress. 181 people with diabetes participated in a randomized controlled trial. Diabetes-related distress was assessed using the Problem Areas In Diabetes (PAID) scale; depressive symptoms were assessed using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D) scale. Multiple logistic and linear regression analyses were used to assess associations between risk factors for depression (independent variables) and improvement of depressive symptoms (dependent variable). Reliable change indices were established as criteria of meaningful reductions in diabetes distress and depressive symptoms. A reliable reduction of diabetes-related distress (15.43 points in the PAID) was significantly associated with fourfold increased odds for reliable improvement of depressive symptoms (OR = 4.25, 95% CI: 2.05-8.79; P<0.001). This result was corroborated using continuous measures of diabetes distress and depressive symptoms, showing that greater reduction of diabetes-related distress independently predicted greater improvement in depressive symptoms (ß = -0.40; P<0.001). Higher age had a positive (Odds Ratio = 2.04, 95% CI: 1.21-3.43; P<0.01) and type 2 diabetes had a negative effect on the meaningful reduction of depressive symptoms (Odds Ratio = 0.12, 95% CI: 0.04-0.35; P<0.001). The reduction of diabetes distress is a statistical predictor of improvement of depressive symptoms. Diabetes patients with comorbid depressive symptomatology might benefit from treatments to reduce diabetes-related distress.

Parts and Components Reliability Assessment: A Cost Effective Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Lydia

2009-01-01

System reliability assessment is a methodology which incorporates reliability analyses performed at parts and components level such as Reliability Prediction, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to assess risks, perform design tradeoffs, and therefore, to ensure effective productivity and/or mission success. The system reliability is used to optimize the product design to accommodate today?s mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. Stand ard based reliability assessment is an effective approach consisting of reliability predictions together with other reliability analyses for electronic, electrical, and electro-mechanical (EEE) complex parts and components of large systems based on failure rate estimates published by the United States (U.S.) military or commercial standards and handbooks. Many of these standards are globally accepted and recognized. The reliability assessment is especially useful during the initial stages when the system design is still in the development and hard failure data is not yet available or manufacturers are not contractually obliged by their customers to publish the reliability estimates/predictions for their parts and components. This paper presents a methodology to assess system reliability using parts and components reliability estimates to ensure effective productivity and/or mission success in an efficient manner, low cost, and tight schedule.

Intelligent transportation systems for planned special events : a cross-cutting study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-11-01

This cross-cutting study examines how six agencies in five states used and continue to use ITS to reduce congestion generated by planned special events, thereby reducing crashes, increasing travel time reliability, and reducing driver frustration.

An Integrated Children Disease Prediction Tool within a Special Social Network.

PubMed

Apostolova Trpkovska, Marika; Yildirim Yayilgan, Sule; Besimi, Adrian

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a social network with an integrated children disease prediction system developed by the use of the specially designed Children General Disease Ontology (CGDO). This ontology consists of children diseases and their relationship with symptoms and Semantic Web Rule Language (SWRL rules) that are specially designed for predicting diseases. The prediction process starts by filling data about the appeared signs and symptoms by the user which are after that mapped with the CGDO ontology. Once the data are mapped, the prediction results are presented. The phase of prediction executes the rules which extract the predicted disease details based on the SWRL rule specified. The motivation behind the development of this system is to spread knowledge about the children diseases and their symptoms in a very simple way using the specialized social networking website www.emama.mk.

Phase Transition in Octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (HMX) under Static Compression: An Application of the First-Principles Method Specialized for CHNO Solid Explosives.

PubMed

Zhang, Lei; Jiang, Sheng-Li; Yu, Yi; Long, Yao; Zhao, Han-Yue; Peng, Li-Juan; Chen, Jun

2016-11-10

The first-principles method is challenged by accurate prediction of van der Waals interactions, which are ubiquitous in nature and crucial for determining the structure of molecules and condensed matter. We have contributed to this by constructing a set of pseudopotentials and pseudoatomic orbital basis specialized for molecular systems consisting of C/H/N/O elements. The reliability of the present method is verified from the interaction energies of 45 kinds of complexes (comparing with CCSD(T)) and the crystalline structures of 23 kinds of typical explosive solids (comparing with experiments). Using this method, we have studied the phase transition of octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (HMX) under static compression up to 50 GPa. Kinetically, intramolecular deformation has priority in the competition with intermolecular packing deformation by ∼87%. A possible γ → β phase transition is found at around 2.10 GPa, and the migration of H 2 O has an effect of kinetically pushing this process. We make it clear that no β → δ/ε → δ phase transition occurs at 27 GPa, which has long been a hot debate in experiments. In addition, the P-V relation, bulk modulus, and acoustic velocity are also predicted for α-, δ-, and γ-HMX, which are experimentally unavailable.

Technical Concept Document. Central Archive for Reusable Defense Software (CARDS)

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-02-28

FeNbry 1994 INFORMAL TECHNICAL REPORT For The SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGY FOR ADAPTABLE, RELIABLE SYSTEMS (STARS) Technical Concept Document Central Archive for...February 1994 INFORMAL TECHNICAL REPORT For The SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGY FOR ADAPTABLE, RELIABLE SYSTEMS (STARS) Technical Concept Document Central Archive...accordance with the DFARS Special Works Clause Developed by: This document, developed under the Software Technology for Adaptable, Reliable Systems

Modeling heterogeneous (co)variances from adjacent-SNP groups improves genomic prediction for milk protein composition traits.

PubMed

Gebreyesus, Grum; Lund, Mogens S; Buitenhuis, Bart; Bovenhuis, Henk; Poulsen, Nina A; Janss, Luc G

2017-12-05

Accurate genomic prediction requires a large reference population, which is problematic for traits that are expensive to measure. Traits related to milk protein composition are not routinely recorded due to costly procedures and are considered to be controlled by a few quantitative trait loci of large effect. The amount of variation explained may vary between regions leading to heterogeneous (co)variance patterns across the genome. Genomic prediction models that can efficiently take such heterogeneity of (co)variances into account can result in improved prediction reliability. In this study, we developed and implemented novel univariate and bivariate Bayesian prediction models, based on estimates of heterogeneous (co)variances for genome segments (BayesAS). Available data consisted of milk protein composition traits measured on cows and de-regressed proofs of total protein yield derived for bulls. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), from 50K SNP arrays, were grouped into non-overlapping genome segments. A segment was defined as one SNP, or a group of 50, 100, or 200 adjacent SNPs, or one chromosome, or the whole genome. Traditional univariate and bivariate genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) models were also run for comparison. Reliabilities were calculated through a resampling strategy and using deterministic formula. BayesAS models improved prediction reliability for most of the traits compared to GBLUP models and this gain depended on segment size and genetic architecture of the traits. The gain in prediction reliability was especially marked for the protein composition traits β-CN, κ-CN and β-LG, for which prediction reliabilities were improved by 49 percentage points on average using the MT-BayesAS model with a 100-SNP segment size compared to the bivariate GBLUP. Prediction reliabilities were highest with the BayesAS model that uses a 100-SNP segment size. The bivariate versions of our BayesAS models resulted in extra gains of up to 6% in prediction reliability compared to the univariate versions. Substantial improvement in prediction reliability was possible for most of the traits related to milk protein composition using our novel BayesAS models. Grouping adjacent SNPs into segments provided enhanced information to estimate parameters and allowing the segments to have different (co)variances helped disentangle heterogeneous (co)variances across the genome.

Measuring emotional intelligence with the Mayer-Salovery-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test (MSCEIT).

PubMed

Brackett, Marc A; Salovey, Peter

2006-01-01

This manuscript examines the measurement instrument developed from the ability model of EI (Mayer and Salovey, 1997), the Mayer-Salovey-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test (MSCEIT; Mayer, Salovey and Caruso, 2002). The four subtests, scoring methods, psychometric properties, reliability, and factor structure of the MSCEIT are discussed, with a special focus on the discriminant, convergent, predictive, and incremental validity of the test. The authors review associations between MSCEIT scores and important outcomes such as academic performance, cognitive processes, psychological well-being, depression, anxiety, prosocial and maladaptive behavior, and leadership and organizational behavior. Findings regarding the low correlations between MSCEIT scores and self-report measures of EI also are presented. In the conclusion the authors' provide potential directions for future research on emotional intelligence.

Methodology for Software Reliability Prediction. Volume 1.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-11-01

SPACECRAFT 0 MANNED SPACECRAFT B ATCH SYSTEM AIRBORNE AVIONICS 0 UNMANNED EVENT C014TROL a REAL TIME CLOSED 0 UNMANNED SPACECRAFT LOOP OPERATINS SPACECRAFT...software reliability. A Software Reliability Measurement Framework was established which spans the life cycle of a software system and includes the...specification, prediction, estimation, and assessment of software reliability. Data from 59 systems , representing over 5 million lines of code, were

FE-simulation of hot forging with an integrated heat treatment with the objective of residual stress prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrens, Bernd-Arno; Chugreeva, Anna; Chugreev, Alexander

2018-05-01

Hot forming as a coupled thermo-mechanical process comprises numerous material phenomena with a corresponding impact on the material behavior during and after the forming process as well as on the final component performance. In this context, a realistic FE-simulation requires reliable mathematical models as well as detailed thermo-mechanical material data. This paper presents experimental and numerical results focused on the FE-based simulation of a hot forging process with a subsequent heat treatment step aiming at the prediction of the final mechanical properties and residual stress state in the forged component made of low alloy CrMo-steel DIN 42CrMo4. For this purpose, hot forging experiments of connecting rod geometry with a corresponding metallographic analysis and x-ray residual stress measurements have been carried out. For the coupled thermo-mechanical-metallurgical FE-simulations, a special user-defined material model based on the additive strain decomposition method and implemented in Simufact Forming via MSC.Marc solver features has been used.

Statistical model selection for better prediction and discovering science mechanisms that affect reliability

DOE PAGES

Anderson-Cook, Christine M.; Morzinski, Jerome; Blecker, Kenneth D.

2015-08-19

Understanding the impact of production, environmental exposure and age characteristics on the reliability of a population is frequently based on underlying science and empirical assessment. When there is incomplete science to prescribe which inputs should be included in a model of reliability to predict future trends, statistical model/variable selection techniques can be leveraged on a stockpile or population of units to improve reliability predictions as well as suggest new mechanisms affecting reliability to explore. We describe a five-step process for exploring relationships between available summaries of age, usage and environmental exposure and reliability. The process involves first identifying potential candidatemore » inputs, then second organizing data for the analysis. Third, a variety of models with different combinations of the inputs are estimated, and fourth, flexible metrics are used to compare them. As a result, plots of the predicted relationships are examined to distill leading model contenders into a prioritized list for subject matter experts to understand and compare. The complexity of the model, quality of prediction and cost of future data collection are all factors to be considered by the subject matter experts when selecting a final model.« less

Resource predictability and specialization in avian malaria parasites.

PubMed

Svensson-Coelho, Maria; Loiselle, Bette A; Blake, John G; Ricklefs, Robert E

2016-09-01

We tested the hypothesis that avian haemosporidian (malaria) parasites specialize on hosts that can be characterized as predictable resources at a site in Amazonian Ecuador. We incorporated host phylogenetic relationship and relative abundance in assessing parasite specialization, and we examined associations between parasite specialization and three host characteristics - abundance, mass and longevity - using quantile regression, phylogenetic logistic regression and t-tests. Hosts of specialist malaria parasite lineages were on average more abundant than hosts of generalist parasite lineages, but the relationship between host abundance and parasite specialization was not consistent across analyses. We also found support for a positive association between parasite specialization and host longevity, but this also was not consistent across analyses. Nonetheless, our findings suggest that the predictability of a host resource may play a role in the evolution of specialization. However, we also discuss two alternative explanations to the resource predictability hypothesis for specialization: (i) that interspecific interactions among the parasites themselves might constrain some parasites to a specialist strategy, and (ii) that frequent encounters with multiple host species, mediated by blood-sucking insects, might promote generalization within this system. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Care 3 model overview and user's guide, first revision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, S. J.; Petersen, P. L.

1985-01-01

A manual was written to introduce the CARE III (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation) capability to reliability and design engineers who are interested in predicting the reliability of highly reliable fault-tolerant systems. It was also structured to serve as a quick-look reference manual for more experienced users. The guide covers CARE III modeling and reliability predictions for execution in the CDC CYber 170 series computers, DEC VAX-11/700 series computer, and most machines that compile ANSI Standard FORTRAN 77.

Special methods for aerodynamic-moment calculations from parachute FSI modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takizawa, Kenji; Tezduyar, Tayfun E.; Boswell, Cody; Tsutsui, Yuki; Montel, Kenneth

2015-06-01

The space-time fluid-structure interaction (STFSI) methods for 3D parachute modeling are now at a level where they can bring reliable, practical analysis to some of the most complex parachute systems, such as spacecraft parachutes. The methods include the Deforming-Spatial-Domain/Stabilized ST method as the core computational technology, and a good number of special FSI methods targeting parachutes. Evaluating the stability characteristics of a parachute based on how the aerodynamic moment varies as a function of the angle of attack is one of the practical analyses that reliable parachute FSI modeling can deliver. We describe the special FSI methods we developed for this specific purpose and present the aerodynamic-moment data obtained from FSI modeling of NASA Orion spacecraft parachutes and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) subscale parachutes.

A Reliability Estimation in Modeling Watershed Runoff With Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melching, Charles S.; Yen, Ben Chie; Wenzel, Harry G., Jr.

1990-10-01

The reliability of simulation results produced by watershed runoff models is a function of uncertainties in nature, data, model parameters, and model structure. A framework is presented here for using a reliability analysis method (such as first-order second-moment techniques or Monte Carlo simulation) to evaluate the combined effect of the uncertainties on the reliability of output hydrographs from hydrologic models. For a given event the prediction reliability can be expressed in terms of the probability distribution of the estimated hydrologic variable. The peak discharge probability for a watershed in Illinois using the HEC-1 watershed model is given as an example. The study of the reliability of predictions from watershed models provides useful information on the stochastic nature of output from deterministic models subject to uncertainties and identifies the relative contribution of the various uncertainties to unreliability of model predictions.

Analysis of cardiovascular oscillations: A new approach to the early prediction of pre-eclampsia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malberg, H.; Bauernschmitt, R.; Voss, A.; Walther, T.; Faber, R.; Stepan, H.; Wessel, N.

2007-03-01

Pre-eclampsia (PE) is a serious disorder with high morbidity and mortality occurring during pregnancy; 3%-5% of all pregnant women are affected. Early prediction is still insufficient in clinical practice. Although most pre-eclamptic patients show pathological uterine perfusion in the second trimester, this parameter has a positive predictive accuracy of only 30%, which makes it unsuitable for early, reliable prediction. The study is based on the hypothesis that alterations in cardiovascular regulatory behavior can be used to predict PE. Ninety-six pregnant women in whom Doppler investigation detected perfusion disorders of the uterine arteries were included in the study. Twenty-four of these pregnant women developed PE after the 30th week of gestation. During pregnancy, additional several noninvasive continuous blood pressure recordings were made over 30 min under resting conditions by means of a finger cuff. The time series extracted of systolic as well as diastolic beat-to-beat pressures and the heart rate were studied by variability and coupling analysis to find predictive factors preceding genesis of the disease. In the period between the 18th and 26th weeks of pregnancy, three special variability and baroreflex parameters were able to predict PE several weeks before clinical manifestation. Discriminant function analysis of these parameters was able to predict PE with a sensitivity and specificity of 87.5% and a positive predictive value of 70%. The combined clinical assessment of uterine perfusion and cardiovascular variability demonstrates the best current prediction several weeks before clinical manifestation of PE.

A Comprehensive Reliability Methodology for Assessing Risk of Reusing Failed Hardware Without Corrective Actions with and Without Redundancy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putcha, Chandra S.; Mikula, D. F. Kip; Dueease, Robert A.; Dang, Lan; Peercy, Robert L.

1997-01-01

This paper deals with the development of a reliability methodology to assess the consequences of using hardware, without failure analysis or corrective action, that has previously demonstrated that it did not perform per specification. The subject of this paper arose from the need to provide a detailed probabilistic analysis to calculate the change in probability of failures with respect to the base or non-failed hardware. The methodology used for the analysis is primarily based on principles of Monte Carlo simulation. The random variables in the analysis are: Maximum Time of Operation (MTO) and operation Time of each Unit (OTU) The failure of a unit is considered to happen if (OTU) is less than MTO for the Normal Operational Period (NOP) in which this unit is used. NOP as a whole uses a total of 4 units. Two cases are considered. in the first specialized scenario, the failure of any operation or system failure is considered to happen if any of the units used during the NOP fail. in the second specialized scenario, the failure of any operation or system failure is considered to happen only if any two of the units used during the MOP fail together. The probability of failure of the units and the system as a whole is determined for 3 kinds of systems - Perfect System, Imperfect System 1 and Imperfect System 2. in a Perfect System, the operation time of the failed unit is the same as that of the MTO. In an Imperfect System 1, the operation time of the failed unit is assumed as 1 percent of the MTO. In an Imperfect System 2, the operation time of the failed unit is assumed as zero. in addition, simulated operation time of failed units is assumed as 10 percent of the corresponding units before zero value. Monte Carlo simulation analysis is used for this study. Necessary software has been developed as part of this study to perform the reliability calculations. The results of the analysis showed that the predicted change in failure probability (P(sub F)) for the previously failed units is as high as 49 percent above the baseline (perfect system) for the worst case. The predicted change in system P(sub F) for the previously failed units is as high as 36% for single unit failure without any redundancy. For redundant systems, with dual unit failure, the predicted change in P(sub F) for the previously failed units is as high as 16%. These results will help management to make decisions regarding the consequences of using previously failed units without adequate failure analysis or corrective action.

New Results in Software Model Checking and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pasareanu, Corina S.

2010-01-01

This introductory article surveys new techniques, supported by automated tools, for the analysis of software to ensure reliability and safety. Special focus is on model checking techniques. The article also introduces the five papers that are enclosed in this special journal volume.

Measuring acuity of the approximate number system reliably and validly: the evaluation of an adaptive test procedure

PubMed Central

Lindskog, Marcus; Winman, Anders; Juslin, Peter; Poom, Leo

2013-01-01

Two studies investigated the reliability and predictive validity of commonly used measures and models of Approximate Number System acuity (ANS). Study 1 investigated reliability by both an empirical approach and a simulation of maximum obtainable reliability under ideal conditions. Results showed that common measures of the Weber fraction (w) are reliable only when using a substantial number of trials, even under ideal conditions. Study 2 compared different purported measures of ANS acuity as for convergent and predictive validity in a within-subjects design and evaluated an adaptive test using the ZEST algorithm. Results showed that the adaptive measure can reduce the number of trials needed to reach acceptable reliability. Only direct tests with non-symbolic numerosity discriminations of stimuli presented simultaneously were related to arithmetic fluency. This correlation remained when controlling for general cognitive ability and perceptual speed. Further, the purported indirect measure of ANS acuity in terms of the Numeric Distance Effect (NDE) was not reliable and showed no sign of predictive validity. The non-symbolic NDE for reaction time was significantly related to direct w estimates in a direction contrary to the expected. Easier stimuli were found to be more reliable, but only harder (7:8 ratio) stimuli contributed to predictive validity. PMID:23964256

The Draw-A-Person Test: an indicator of children's cognitive and socioemotional adaptation?

PubMed

ter Laak, J; de Goede, M; Aleva, A; van Rijswijk, P

2005-03-01

The authors examined aspects of reliability and validity of the Goodenough-Harris Draw-A-Person Test (DAP; D. B. Harris, 1963). The participants were 115 seven- to nine-year-old students attending regular or special education schools. Three judges, with a modest degree of training similar to that found among practicing clinicians, rated the students' human figure drawings on developmental and personality variables. The authors found that counting details and determining developmental level in the DAP test could be carried out reliably by judges with limited experience. However, the reliability of judgments of children's social and emotional development and personality was insufficient. Older students and students attending regular schools received significantly higher scores than did younger students or students attending special education schools. The authors found that the success of the DAP test as an indicator of cognitive level, socioemotional development, and personality is limited when global judgments are used. The authors concluded that more specific, reliable, valid, and useful scoring systems are needed for the DAP test.

Investigating Postgraduate College Admission Interviews: Generalizability Theory Reliability and Incremental Predictive Validity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arce-Ferrer, Alvaro J.; Castillo, Irene Borges

2007-01-01

The use of face-to-face interviews is controversial for college admissions decisions in light of the lack of availability of validity and reliability evidence for most college admission processes. This study investigated reliability and incremental predictive validity of a face-to-face postgraduate college admission interview with a sample of…

Influences on the Test-Retest Reliability of Functional Connectivity MRI and its Relationship with Behavioral Utility.

PubMed

Noble, Stephanie; Spann, Marisa N; Tokoglu, Fuyuze; Shen, Xilin; Constable, R Todd; Scheinost, Dustin

2017-11-01

Best practices are currently being developed for the acquisition and processing of resting-state magnetic resonance imaging data used to estimate brain functional organization-or "functional connectivity." Standards have been proposed based on test-retest reliability, but open questions remain. These include how amount of data per subject influences whole-brain reliability, the influence of increasing runs versus sessions, the spatial distribution of reliability, the reliability of multivariate methods, and, crucially, how reliability maps onto prediction of behavior. We collected a dataset of 12 extensively sampled individuals (144 min data each across 2 identically configured scanners) to assess test-retest reliability of whole-brain connectivity within the generalizability theory framework. We used Human Connectome Project data to replicate these analyses and relate reliability to behavioral prediction. Overall, the historical 5-min scan produced poor reliability averaged across connections. Increasing the number of sessions was more beneficial than increasing runs. Reliability was lowest for subcortical connections and highest for within-network cortical connections. Multivariate reliability was greater than univariate. Finally, reliability could not be used to improve prediction; these findings are among the first to underscore this distinction for functional connectivity. A comprehensive understanding of test-retest reliability, including its limitations, supports the development of best practices in the field. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Beam Walking in Special Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Broadhead, Geoffrey D.

1974-01-01

An experimental test on beam walking (for balance), administered to 189 minimally brain injured and 226 educable mentally retarded (EMR) 8- to 13-year-old children, yielded results such as reliability estimates for the mean of three trials were high and there was greater performance reliability for EMR children. (MC)

Bearing Procurement Analysis Method by Total Cost of Ownership Analysis and Reliability Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trusaji, Wildan; Akbar, Muhammad; Sukoyo; Irianto, Dradjad

2018-03-01

In making bearing procurement analysis, price and its reliability must be considered as decision criteria, since price determines the direct cost as acquisition cost and reliability of bearing determine the indirect cost such as maintenance cost. Despite the indirect cost is hard to identify and measured, it has high contribution to overall cost that will be incurred. So, the indirect cost of reliability must be considered when making bearing procurement analysis. This paper tries to explain bearing evaluation method with the total cost of ownership analysis to consider price and maintenance cost as decision criteria. Furthermore, since there is a lack of failure data when bearing evaluation phase is conducted, reliability prediction method is used to predict bearing reliability from its dynamic load rating parameter. With this method, bearing with a higher price but has higher reliability is preferable for long-term planning. But for short-term planning the cheaper one but has lower reliability is preferable. This contextuality can give rise to conflict between stakeholders. Thus, the planning horizon needs to be agreed by all stakeholder before making a procurement decision.

Validity and reliability of Internet-based physiotherapy assessment for musculoskeletal disorders: a systematic review.

PubMed

Mani, Suresh; Sharma, Shobha; Omar, Baharudin; Paungmali, Aatit; Joseph, Leonard

2017-04-01

Purpose The purpose of this review is to systematically explore and summarise the validity and reliability of telerehabilitation (TR)-based physiotherapy assessment for musculoskeletal disorders. Method A comprehensive systematic literature review was conducted using a number of electronic databases: PubMed, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library and CINAHL, published between January 2000 and May 2015. The studies examined the validity, inter- and intra-rater reliabilities of TR-based physiotherapy assessment for musculoskeletal conditions were included. Two independent reviewers used the Quality Appraisal Tool for studies of diagnostic Reliability (QAREL) and the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) tool to assess the methodological quality of reliability and validity studies respectively. Results A total of 898 hits were achieved, of which 11 articles based on inclusion criteria were reviewed. Nine studies explored the concurrent validity, inter- and intra-rater reliabilities, while two studies examined only the concurrent validity. Reviewed studies were moderate to good in methodological quality. The physiotherapy assessments such as pain, swelling, range of motion, muscle strength, balance, gait and functional assessment demonstrated good concurrent validity. However, the reported concurrent validity of lumbar spine posture, special orthopaedic tests, neurodynamic tests and scar assessments ranged from low to moderate. Conclusion TR-based physiotherapy assessment was technically feasible with overall good concurrent validity and excellent reliability, except for lumbar spine posture, orthopaedic special tests, neurodynamic testa and scar assessment.

Reliability of Long-Term Wave Conditions Predicted with Data Sets of Short Duration

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-03-01

the validity and reliability of predicted probable wave heights obtained from data of limited duration. BACKGROUND: The basic steps listed by...interest to perform the analysis outlined in steps 2 to 5, the prediction would only be reliable for up to a 3year return period. For a 5-year data set...for long-term hindcast data . The data retrieval and analysis program known as the Sea State Engineering Analysis System (SEAS) makes handling of the

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for colorectal cancer after radical resection based on individual patient data from three large-scale phase III trials

PubMed Central

Akiyoshi, Takashi; Maeda, Hiromichi; Kashiwabara, Kosuke; Kanda, Mitsuro; Mayanagi, Shuhei; Aoyama, Toru; Hamada, Chikuma; Sadahiro, Sotaro; Fukunaga, Yosuke; Ueno, Masashi; Sakamoto, Junichi; Saji, Shigetoyo; Yoshikawa, Takaki

2017-01-01

Background Few prediction models have so far been developed and assessed for the prognosis of patients who undergo curative resection for colorectal cancer (CRC). Materials and Methods We prepared a clinical dataset including 5,530 patients who participated in three major randomized controlled trials as a training dataset and 2,263 consecutive patients who were treated at a cancer-specialized hospital as a validation dataset. All subjects underwent radical resection for CRC which was histologically diagnosed to be adenocarcinoma. The main outcomes that were predicted were the overall survival (OS) and disease free survival (DFS). The identification of the variables in this nomogram was based on a Cox regression analysis and the model performance was evaluated by Harrell's c-index. The calibration plot and its slope were also studied. For the external validation assessment, risk group stratification was employed. Results The multivariate Cox model identified variables; sex, age, pathological T and N factor, tumor location, size, lymphnode dissection, postoperative complications and adjuvant chemotherapy. The c-index was 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.66-0.77) for the OS and 0.74 (95% CI 0.69-0.78) for the DFS. The proposed stratification in the risk groups demonstrated a significant distinction between the Kaplan–Meier curves for OS and DFS in the external validation dataset. Conclusions We established a clinically reliable nomogram to predict the OS and DFS in patients with CRC using large scale and reliable independent patient data from phase III randomized controlled trials. The external validity was also confirmed on the practical dataset. PMID:29228760

Clinically Practical Approach for Screening of Low Muscularity Using Electronic Linear Measures on Computed Tomography Images in Critically Ill Patients.

PubMed

Avrutin, Egor; Moisey, Lesley L; Zhang, Roselyn; Khattab, Jenna; Todd, Emma; Premji, Tahira; Kozar, Rosemary; Heyland, Daren K; Mourtzakis, Marina

2017-12-06

Computed tomography (CT) scans performed during routine hospital care offer the opportunity to quantify skeletal muscle and predict mortality and morbidity in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Existing methods of muscle cross-sectional area (CSA) quantification require specialized software, training, and time commitment that may not be feasible in a clinical setting. In this article, we explore a new screening method to identify patients with low muscle mass. We analyzed 145 scans of elderly ICU patients (≥65 years old) using a combination of measures obtained with a digital ruler, commonly found on hospital radiological software. The psoas and paraspinal muscle groups at the level of the third lumbar vertebra (L3) were evaluated by using 2 linear measures each and compared with an established method of CT image analysis of total muscle CSA in the L3 region. There was a strong association between linear measures of psoas and paraspinal muscle groups and total L3 muscle CSA (R 2 = 0.745, P < 0.001). Linear measures, age, and sex were included as covariates in a multiple logistic regression to predict those with low muscle mass; receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) of the combined psoas and paraspinal linear index model was 0.920. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were used to evaluate intrarater and interrater reliability, resulting in scores of 0.979 (95% CI: 0.940-0.992) and 0.937 (95% CI: 0.828-0.978), respectively. A digital ruler can reliably predict L3 muscle CSA, and these linear measures may be used to identify critically ill patients with low muscularity who are at risk for worse clinical outcomes. © 2017 American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition.

Stigma predicts residential treatment length for substance use disorder

PubMed Central

Luoma, Jason B.; Kulesza, Magdalena; Hayes, Steven C.; Kohlenberg, Barbara; Larimer, Mary

2016-01-01

Background Stigma has been suggested as a possible contributor to the high rates of treatment attrition in substance-dependent individuals, but no published empirical studies have examined this association. Objectives The present paper assessed the relationship between baseline stigma variables and length of treatment stay in a sample of patients in a residential addictions treatment unit. Methods The relationship between baseline stigma variables (self-stigma, enacted stigma, and shame) and length of stay for participants (n = 103) in a residential addictions treatment unit was examined. Results Higher self-stigma predicted longer stay in residential addictions treatment, even after controlling for age, marital status, race, overall mental health, social support, enacted stigma, and internalized shame. However, other stigma variables (i.e. internalized shame, stigma-related rejection) did not reliably predict length of treatment stay. Conclusion These results are consistent with other findings suggesting that people with higher self-stigma may have a lowered sense of self-efficacy and heightened fear of being stigmatized and therefore retreat into more protected settings such as residential treatment, potentially resulting in higher treatment costs. Specialized clinical interventions may be necessary to help participants cope with reduced self-efficacy and fear of being stigmatized. PMID:24766087

Solar-Powered Supply Is Light and Reliable

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willis, A. E.; Garrett, H.; Matheney, J.

1982-01-01

DC supply originally intended for use in solar-powered spacecraft propulsion is lightweight and very reliable. Operates from 100-200 volt output of solar panels to produce 11 different dc voltages, with total demand of 3,138 watts. With exception of specially wound inductors and transformers, system uses readily available components.

Cross-cultural adaptation, reliability and validity of the Turkish version of the Hospital for Special Surgery (HSS) Knee Score.

PubMed

Narin, Selnur; Unver, Bayram; Bakırhan, Serkan; Bozan, Ozgür; Karatosun, Vasfi

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to adapt the English version of the Hospital for Special Surgery (HSS) knee score for use in a Turkish population and to evaluate its validity, reliability and cultural adaptation. Standard forward-back translation of the HSS knee score was performed and the Turkish version was applied in 73 patients. The Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC), Mini-Mental State Examination and sit-to-stand test were also performed and analyzed. Internal consistency reliability was tested using Cronbach's alpha. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to calculate the test-retest reliability at one-week intervals. Validity was assessed by calculating the Pearson correlation between the HSS, WOMAC and sit-to-stand test scores. The ICC ranged from 0.98 to 0.99 with high internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha: 0.87). The WOMAC score correlated with total HSS score (r: -0.80, p<0.001) and sit-to-stand score (r: 0.12, p: 0.312). The Turkish version of the HSS knee score is reliable and valid in evaluating the total knee arthroplasty in Turkish patients.

Lifetime Reliability Prediction of Ceramic Structures Under Transient Thermomechanical Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama J.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

2005-01-01

An analytical methodology is developed to predict the probability of survival (reliability) of ceramic components subjected to harsh thermomechanical loads that can vary with time (transient reliability analysis). This capability enables more accurate prediction of ceramic component integrity against fracture in situations such as turbine startup and shutdown, operational vibrations, atmospheric reentry, or other rapid heating or cooling situations (thermal shock). The transient reliability analysis methodology developed herein incorporates the following features: fast-fracture transient analysis (reliability analysis without slow crack growth, SCG); transient analysis with SCG (reliability analysis with time-dependent damage due to SCG); a computationally efficient algorithm to compute the reliability for components subjected to repeated transient loading (block loading); cyclic fatigue modeling using a combined SCG and Walker fatigue law; proof testing for transient loads; and Weibull and fatigue parameters that are allowed to vary with temperature or time. Component-to-component variation in strength (stochastic strength response) is accounted for with the Weibull distribution, and either the principle of independent action or the Batdorf theory is used to predict the effect of multiaxial stresses on reliability. The reliability analysis can be performed either as a function of the component surface (for surface-distributed flaws) or component volume (for volume-distributed flaws). The transient reliability analysis capability has been added to the NASA CARES/ Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. CARES/Life was also updated to interface with commercially available finite element analysis software, such as ANSYS, when used to model the effects of transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

The creation and validation of an instrument to measure school STEM Culture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Christopher

Although current research exists on school culture, there is a gap in the literature on specialized aspects of culture such as STEM Culture defined as the beliefs, values, practices, resources, and challenges in STEM fields (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) within a school. The objective of this study was to create a valid and reliable instrument, the STEM Culture Assessment Tool (STEM-CAT), that measures this cultural aspect based on a survey of stakeholder groups within the school community and use empirical data to support the use of this instrument to measure STEM Culture. Items were created and face validity was determined through a focus group and expert review before a pilot study was conducted to determine reliability of the items. Once items were determined reliable, the survey was given to eight high schools and results were correlated to the percentage of seniors who self-reported whether they intend to pursue STEM fields upon graduation. The results of this study indicate further need for research to determine how the STEM-CAT correlates to STEM culture due to some inconsistencies with the dependent variable in this study. Future research could be done correlating the results of the STEM-CAT with participation in Advanced Placement science and mathematics, SAT/ACT scores in science and mathematics or the number of students who actually pursue STEM fields rather than a prediction halfway through the 12th grade.

Earth Observing System/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (EOS/AMSU-A): Reliability prediction report for module A1 (channels 3 through 15) and module A2 (channels 1 and 2)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geimer, W.

1995-01-01

This report documents the final reliability prediction performed on the Earth Observing System/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (EOS/AMSU-A). The A1 Module contains Channels 3 through 15, and is referred to herein as 'EOS/AMSU-A1'. The A2 Module contains Channels 1 and 2, and is referred herein as 'EOS/AMSU-A2'. The 'specified' figures were obtained from Aerojet Reports 8897-1 and 9116-1. The predicted reliability figure for the EOS/AMSU-A1 meets the specified value and provides a Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) of 74,390 hours. The predicted reliability figure for the EOS/AMSU-A2 meets the specified value and provides a MTBF of 193,110 hours.

USSOCOM Fact Book: Special Operations Forces

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

units include the 75th Ranger Regiment, headquartered at Fort Benning, Ga.; 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (Airborne) at Fort Campbell, Ky...throughout the world Rangers are the masters of special light infantry operations. This lethal, agile, and flexible force is capable of executing a wide...responsiveness and reliability define the Ranger Regiment as the versatile and adaptive force of choice for missions of high risk and strategic importance in

Design of a Facility to Test the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Engineering Unit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewandowski, Edward J.; Schreiber, Jeffrey G.; Oriti, Salvatore M.; Meer, David W.; Brace, Michael H.; Dugala, Gina

2010-01-01

The Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG), a high efficiency generator, is being considered for space missions. An engineering unit, the ASRG engineering unit (EU), was designed and fabricated by Lockheed Martin under contract to the Department of Energy. This unit is currently under extended operation test at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) to generate performance data and validate the life and reliability predictions for the generator and the Stirling convertors. A special test facility was designed and built for the ASRG EU. This paper summarizes details of the test facility design, including the mechanical mounting, heat-rejection system, argon system, control systems, and maintenance. The effort proceeded from requirements definition through design, analysis, build, and test. Initial testing and facility performance results are discussed.

Bootstrap study of genome-enabled prediction reliabilities using haplotype blocks across Nordic Red cattle breeds.

PubMed

Cuyabano, B C D; Su, G; Rosa, G J M; Lund, M S; Gianola, D

2015-10-01

This study compared the accuracy of genome-enabled prediction models using individual single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) or haplotype blocks as covariates when using either a single breed or a combined population of Nordic Red cattle. The main objective was to compare predictions of breeding values of complex traits using a combined training population with haplotype blocks, with predictions using a single breed as training population and individual SNP as predictors. To compare the prediction reliabilities, bootstrap samples were taken from the test data set. With the bootstrapped samples of prediction reliabilities, we built and graphed confidence ellipses to allow comparisons. Finally, measures of statistical distances were used to calculate the gain in predictive ability. Our analyses are innovative in the context of assessment of predictive models, allowing a better understanding of prediction reliabilities and providing a statistical basis to effectively calibrate whether one prediction scenario is indeed more accurate than another. An ANOVA indicated that use of haplotype blocks produced significant gains mainly when Bayesian mixture models were used but not when Bayesian BLUP was fitted to the data. Furthermore, when haplotype blocks were used to train prediction models in a combined Nordic Red cattle population, we obtained up to a statistically significant 5.5% average gain in prediction accuracy, over predictions using individual SNP and training the model with a single breed. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Science should warn people of looming disaster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir

2014-05-01

Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of special knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, it appears that a few seismic hazard assessment programs and/or methodologies were tested appropriately against real observations before being endorsed for estimation of earthquake related risks. The fatal evidence and aftermath of the past decades prove that many of the existing internationally accepted methodologies are grossly misleading and are evidently unacceptable for any kind of responsible risk evaluation and knowledgeable disaster prevention. In contrast, the confirmed reliability of pattern recognition aimed at earthquake prone areas and times of increased probability, along with realistic earthquake scaling and scenario modeling, allow us to conclude that Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering this state-of-the-art knowledge of looming disaster in advance catastrophic events. In a lieu of seismic observations long enough for a reliable probabilistic assessment or a comprehensive physical theory of earthquake recurrence, pattern recognition applied to available geophysical and/or geological data sets remains a broad avenue to follow in seismic hazard forecast/prediction. Moreover, better understanding seismic process in terms of non-linear dynamics of a hierarchical system of blocks-and-faults and deterministic chaos, progress to new approaches in assessing time-dependent seismic hazard based on multiscale analysis of seismic activity and reproducible intermediate-term earthquake prediction technique. The algorithms, which make use of multidisciplinary data available and account for fractal nature of earthquake distributions in space and time, have confirmed their reliability by durable statistical testing in the on-going regular real-time application lasted for more than 20 years. Geoscientists must initiate shifting the minds of community from pessimistic disbelieve in forecast/prediction products to optimistic challenging views on Hazard Predictability in space and time, so that not to repeat missed opportunities for disaster preparedness like it happen in advance the 2009 L'Aquila, M6.3 earthquake in Italy and the 2011, M9.0 mega-thrust off the Pacific coast of Tōhoku region in Japan.

Software reliability models for fault-tolerant avionics computers and related topics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Douglas R.

1987-01-01

Software reliability research is briefly described. General research topics are reliability growth models, quality of software reliability prediction, the complete monotonicity property of reliability growth, conceptual modelling of software failure behavior, assurance of ultrahigh reliability, and analysis techniques for fault-tolerant systems.

NATO IST 124 Experimentation Instructions

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-10

more reliable and predictable network performance through adaptive and efficient control schemes . This report provides guidance and instructions for...tactical heterogeneous networks for more reliable and predictable network performance through adaptive and efficient control schemes . This report

Conservatism and Adaptability during Squirrel Radiation: What Is Mandible Shape Telling Us?

PubMed Central

Casanovas-Vilar, Isaac; van Dam, Jan

2013-01-01

Both functional adaptation and phylogeny shape the morphology of taxa within clades. Herein we explore these two factors in an integrated way by analyzing shape and size variation in the mandible of extant squirrels using landmark-based geometric morphometrics in combination with a comparative phylogenetic analysis. Dietary specialization and locomotion were found to be reliable predictors of mandible shape, with the prediction by locomotion probably reflecting the underlying diet. In addition a weak but significant allometric effect could be demonstrated. Our results found a strong phylogenetic signal in the family as a whole as well as in the main clades, which is in agreement with the general notion of squirrels being a conservative group. This fact does not preclude functional explanations for mandible shape, but rather indicates that ancient adaptations kept a prominent role, with most genera having diverged little from their ancestral clade morphologies. Nevertheless, certain groups have evolved conspicuous adaptations that allow them to specialize on unique dietary resources. Such adaptations mostly occurred in the Callosciurinae and probably reflect their radiation into the numerous ecological niches of the tropical and subtropical forests of Southeastern Asia. Our dietary reconstruction for the oldest known fossil squirrels (Eocene, 36 million years ago) show a specialization on nuts and seeds, implying that the development from protrogomorphous to sciuromorphous skulls was not necessarily related to a change in diet. PMID:23593456

HOME - An application of fault-tolerant techniques and system self-testing. [independent computer for helicopter flight control command monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holden, D. G.

1975-01-01

Hard Over Monitoring Equipment (HOME) has been designed to complement and enhance the flight safety of a flight research helicopter. HOME is an independent, highly reliable, and fail-safe special purpose computer that monitors the flight control commands issued by the flight control computer of the helicopter. In particular, HOME detects the issuance of a hazardous hard-over command for any of the four flight control axes and transfers the control of the helicopter to the flight safety pilot. The design of HOME incorporates certain reliability and fail-safe enhancement design features, such as triple modular redundancy, majority logic voting, fail-safe dual circuits, independent status monitors, in-flight self-test, and a built-in preflight exerciser. The HOME design and operation is described with special emphasis on the reliability and fail-safe aspects of the design.

Managing Reliability in the 21st Century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dellin, T.A.

1998-11-23

The rapid pace of change at Ike end of the 20th Century should continue unabated well into the 21st Century. The driver will be the marketplace imperative of "faster, better, cheaper." This imperative has already stimulated a revolution-in-engineering in design and manufacturing. In contrast, to date, reliability engineering has not undergone a similar level of change. It is critical that we implement a corresponding revolution-in-reliability-engineering as we enter the new millennium. If we are still using 20th Century reliability approaches in the 21st Century, then reliability issues will be the limiting factor in faster, better, and cheaper. At the heartmore » of this reliability revolution will be a science-based approach to reliability engineering. Science-based reliability will enable building-in reliability, application-specific products, virtual qualification, and predictive maintenance. The purpose of this paper is to stimulate a dialogue on the future of reliability engineering. We will try to gaze into the crystal ball and predict some key issues that will drive reliability programs in the new millennium. In the 21st Century, we will demand more of our reliability programs. We will need the ability to make accurate reliability predictions that will enable optimizing cost, performance and time-to-market to meet the needs of every market segment. We will require that all of these new capabilities be in place prior to the stint of a product development cycle. The management of reliability programs will be driven by quantifiable metrics of value added to the organization business objectives.« less

HitPredict version 4: comprehensive reliability scoring of physical protein-protein interactions from more than 100 species.

PubMed

López, Yosvany; Nakai, Kenta; Patil, Ashwini

2015-01-01

HitPredict is a consolidated resource of experimentally identified, physical protein-protein interactions with confidence scores to indicate their reliability. The study of genes and their inter-relationships using methods such as network and pathway analysis requires high quality protein-protein interaction information. Extracting reliable interactions from most of the existing databases is challenging because they either contain only a subset of the available interactions, or a mixture of physical, genetic and predicted interactions. Automated integration of interactions is further complicated by varying levels of accuracy of database content and lack of adherence to standard formats. To address these issues, the latest version of HitPredict provides a manually curated dataset of 398 696 physical associations between 70 808 proteins from 105 species. Manual confirmation was used to resolve all issues encountered during data integration. For improved reliability assessment, this version combines a new score derived from the experimental information of the interactions with the original score based on the features of the interacting proteins. The combined interaction score performs better than either of the individual scores in HitPredict as well as the reliability score of another similar database. HitPredict provides a web interface to search proteins and visualize their interactions, and the data can be downloaded for offline analysis. Data usability has been enhanced by mapping protein identifiers across multiple reference databases. Thus, the latest version of HitPredict provides a significantly larger, more reliable and usable dataset of protein-protein interactions from several species for the study of gene groups. Database URL: http://hintdb.hgc.jp/htp. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Structural reliability assessment of the Oman India Pipeline

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Al-Sharif, A.M.; Preston, R.

1996-12-31

Reliability techniques are increasingly finding application in design. The special design conditions for the deep water sections of the Oman India Pipeline dictate their use since the experience basis for application of standard deterministic techniques is inadequate. The paper discusses the reliability analysis as applied to the Oman India Pipeline, including selection of a collapse model, characterization of the variability in the parameters that affect pipe resistance to collapse, and implementation of first and second order reliability analyses to assess the probability of pipe failure. The reliability analysis results are used as the basis for establishing the pipe wall thicknessmore » requirements for the pipeline.« less

Prediction of Geomagnetic Activity and Key Parameters in High-Latitude Ionosphere-Basic Elements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyatsky, W.; Khazanov, G. V.

2007-01-01

Prediction of geomagnetic activity and related events in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere is an important task of the Space Weather program. Prediction reliability is dependent on the prediction method and elements included in the prediction scheme. Two main elements are a suitable geomagnetic activity index and coupling function -- the combination of solar wind parameters providing the best correlation between upstream solar wind data and geomagnetic activity. The appropriate choice of these two elements is imperative for any reliable prediction model. The purpose of this work was to elaborate on these two elements -- the appropriate geomagnetic activity index and the coupling function -- and investigate the opportunity to improve the reliability of the prediction of geomagnetic activity and other events in the Earth's magnetosphere. The new polar magnetic index of geomagnetic activity and the new version of the coupling function lead to a significant increase in the reliability of predicting the geomagnetic activity and some key parameters, such as cross-polar cap voltage and total Joule heating in high-latitude ionosphere, which play a very important role in the development of geomagnetic and other activity in the Earth s magnetosphere, and are widely used as key input parameters in modeling magnetospheric, ionospheric, and thermospheric processes.

Validity and Reliability Study of the Korean Tinetti Mobility Test for Parkinson's Disease.

PubMed

Park, Jinse; Koh, Seong-Beom; Kim, Hee Jin; Oh, Eungseok; Kim, Joong-Seok; Yun, Ji Young; Kwon, Do-Young; Kim, Younsoo; Kim, Ji Seon; Kwon, Kyum-Yil; Park, Jeong-Ho; Youn, Jinyoung; Jang, Wooyoung

2018-01-01

Postural instability and gait disturbance are the cardinal symptoms associated with falling among patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). The Tinetti mobility test (TMT) is a well-established measurement tool used to predict falls among elderly people. However, the TMT has not been established or widely used among PD patients in Korea. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of the Korean version of the TMT for PD patients. Twenty-four patients diagnosed with PD were enrolled in this study. For the interrater reliability test, thirteen clinicians scored the TMT after watching a video clip. We also used the test-retest method to determine intrarater reliability. For concurrent validation, the unified Parkinson's disease rating scale, Hoehn and Yahr staging, Berg Balance Scale, Timed-Up and Go test, 10-m walk test, and gait analysis by three-dimensional motion capture were also used. We analyzed receiver operating characteristic curve to predict falling. The interrater reliability and intrarater reliability of the Korean Tinetti balance scale were 0.97 and 0.98, respectively. The interrater reliability and intra-rater reliability of the Korean Tinetti gait scale were 0.94 and 0.96, respectively. The Korean TMT scores were significantly correlated with the other clinical scales and three-dimensional motion capture. The cutoff values for predicting falling were 14 points (balance subscale) and 10 points (gait subscale). We found that the Korean version of the TMT showed excellent validity and reliability for gait and balance and had high sensitivity and specificity for predicting falls among patients with PD.

The Problem of Ensuring Reliability of Gas Turbine Engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nozhnitsky, Yu A.

2018-01-01

Requirements to advanced engines for civil aviation are discussing. Some significant problems of ensuring reliability of advanced gas turbine engines are mentioned. Special attention is paid to successful utilization of new materials and critical technologies. Also the problem of excluding failure of engine part due to low cycle or high cycle fatigue is discussing.

Validity and Reliability of Criterion-Referenced Measures: Issues and Procedures for Special Educators.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harris, Larry P.; Wolf, Steven R.

1979-01-01

The article focuses on the controversy over norm-referenced v criterion-referenced measures (CRM) in assessment of learning disorders. The authors contend that while the reliability of CRMs is generally indisputable, the validity of measures designed from local curricula is still dependent on the intuitive judgments of teachers. (Author/SBH)

Extended Editorial: Research and Education in Reliability, Maintenance, Quality Control, Risk and Safety.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramalhoto, M. F.

1999-01-01

Introduces a special theme journal issue on research and education in quality control, maintenance, reliability, risk analysis, and safety. Discusses each of these theme concepts and their applications to naval architecture, marine engineering, and industrial engineering. Considers the effects of the rapid transfer of research results through…

Test Theories, Educational Priorities and Reliability of Public Examinations in England

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baird, Jo-Anne; Black, Paul

2013-01-01

Much has already been written on the controversies surrounding the use of different test theories in educational assessment. Other authors have noted the prevalence of classical test theory over item response theory in practice. This Special Issue draws together articles based upon work conducted on the Reliability Programme for England's…

Dissociating Word Frequency and Predictability Effects in Reading: Evidence from Coregistration of Eye Movements and EEG

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kretzschmar, Franziska; Schlesewsky, Matthias; Staub, Adrian

2015-01-01

Two very reliable influences on eye fixation durations in reading are word frequency, as measured by corpus counts, and word predictability, as measured by cloze norming. Several studies have reported strictly additive effects of these 2 variables. Predictability also reliably influences the amplitude of the N400 component in event-related…

Technique for Early Reliability Prediction of Software Components Using Behaviour Models

PubMed Central

Ali, Awad; N. A. Jawawi, Dayang; Adham Isa, Mohd; Imran Babar, Muhammad

2016-01-01

Behaviour models are the most commonly used input for predicting the reliability of a software system at the early design stage. A component behaviour model reveals the structure and behaviour of the component during the execution of system-level functionalities. There are various challenges related to component reliability prediction at the early design stage based on behaviour models. For example, most of the current reliability techniques do not provide fine-grained sequential behaviour models of individual components and fail to consider the loop entry and exit points in the reliability computation. Moreover, some of the current techniques do not tackle the problem of operational data unavailability and the lack of analysis results that can be valuable for software architects at the early design stage. This paper proposes a reliability prediction technique that, pragmatically, synthesizes system behaviour in the form of a state machine, given a set of scenarios and corresponding constraints as input. The state machine is utilized as a base for generating the component-relevant operational data. The state machine is also used as a source for identifying the nodes and edges of a component probabilistic dependency graph (CPDG). Based on the CPDG, a stack-based algorithm is used to compute the reliability. The proposed technique is evaluated by a comparison with existing techniques and the application of sensitivity analysis to a robotic wheelchair system as a case study. The results indicate that the proposed technique is more relevant at the early design stage compared to existing works, and can provide a more realistic and meaningful prediction. PMID:27668748

[Phenotypic trends and breeding values for canine congenital sensorineural deafness in Dalmatian dogs].

PubMed

Blum, Meike; Distl, Ottmar

2014-01-01

In the present study, breeding values for canine congenital sensorineural deafness, the presence of blue eyes and patches have been predicted using multivariate animal models to test the reliability of the breeding values for planned matings. The dataset consisted of 6669 German Dalmatian dogs born between 1988 and 2009. Data were provided by the Dalmatian kennel clubs which are members of the German Association for Dog Breeding and Husbandry (VDH). The hearing status for all dogs was evaluated using brainstem auditory evoked potentials. The reliability using the prediction error variance of breeding values and the realized reliability of the prediction of the phenotype of future progeny born in each one year between 2006 and 2009 were used as parameters to evaluate the goodness of prediction through breeding values. All animals from the previous birth years were used for prediction of the breeding values of the progeny in each of the up-coming birth years. The breeding values based on pedigree records achieved an average reliability of 0.19 for the future 1951 progeny. The predictive accuracy (R2) for the hearing status of single future progeny was at 1.3%. Combining breeding values for littermates increased the predictive accuracy to 3.5%. Corresponding values for maternal and paternal half-sib groups were at 3.2 and 7.3%. The use of breeding values for planned matings increases the phenotypic selection response over mass selection. The breeding values of sires may be used for planned matings because reliabilities and predictive accuracies for future paternal progeny groups were highest.

Evaluation of ceramics for stator application: Gas turbine engine report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trela, W.; Havstad, P. H.

1978-01-01

Current ceramic materials, component fabrication processes, and reliability prediction capability for ceramic stators in an automotive gas turbine engine environment are assessed. Simulated engine duty cycle testing of stators conducted at temperatures up to 1093 C is discussed. Materials evaluated are SiC and Si3N4 fabricated from two near-net-shape processes: slip casting and injection molding. Stators for durability cycle evaluation and test specimens for material property characterization, and reliability prediction model prepared to predict stator performance in the simulated engine environment are considered. The status and description of the work performed for the reliability prediction modeling, stator fabrication, material property characterization, and ceramic stator evaluation efforts are reported.

Determining Functional Reliability of Pyrotechnic Mechanical Devices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bement, Laurence J.; Multhaup, Herbert A.

1997-01-01

This paper describes a new approach for evaluating mechanical performance and predicting the mechanical functional reliability of pyrotechnic devices. Not included are other possible failure modes, such as the initiation of the pyrotechnic energy source. The requirement of hundreds or thousands of consecutive, successful tests on identical components for reliability predictions, using the generally accepted go/no-go statistical approach routinely ignores physics of failure. The approach described in this paper begins with measuring, understanding and controlling mechanical performance variables. Then, the energy required to accomplish the function is compared to that delivered by the pyrotechnic energy source to determine mechanical functional margin. Finally, the data collected in establishing functional margin is analyzed to predict mechanical functional reliability, using small-sample statistics. A careful application of this approach can provide considerable cost improvements and understanding over that of go/no-go statistics. Performance and the effects of variables can be defined, and reliability predictions can be made by evaluating 20 or fewer units. The application of this approach to a pin puller used on a successful NASA mission is provided as an example.

An Analysis and Validation of Vocational Special Needs Inservice Issues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, James M.; And Others

This report presents the results of a four-year effort to develop a valid and reliable inservice needs assessment instrument. (The instrument was designed to identify competencies that should be the focus of inservice training for vocational educators who teach or provide services to special needs learners.) Chapter I is an introduction. Chapter…

Analysis of Readability and Interest of Marketing Education Textbooks: Implications for Special Needs Learners.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Karen H.; And Others

1993-01-01

The readability, reading ease, interest level, and writing style of 20 current textbooks in secondary marketing education were evaluated. Readability formulas consistently identified lower reading levels for special needs education, human interest scores were not very reliable information sources, and writing style was also a weak variable. (JOW)

Connectivity Predicts Deep Brain Stimulation Outcome in Parkinson Disease

PubMed Central

Horn, Andreas; Reich, Martin; Vorwerk, Johannes; Li, Ningfei; Wenzel, Gregor; Fang, Qianqian; Schmitz-Hübsch, Tanja; Nickl, Robert; Kupsch, Andreas; Volkmann, Jens; Kühn, Andrea A.; Fox, Michael D.

2018-01-01

Objective The benefit of deep brain stimulation (DBS) for Parkinson disease (PD) may depend on connectivity between the stimulation site and other brain regions, but which regions and whether connectivity can predict outcome in patients remain unknown. Here, we identify the structural and functional connectivity profile of effective DBS to the subthalamic nucleus (STN) and test its ability to predict outcome in an independent cohort. Methods A training dataset of 51 PD patients with STN DBS was combined with publicly available human connectome data (diffusion tractography and resting state functional connectivity) to identify connections reliably associated with clinical improvement (motor score of the Unified Parkinson Disease Rating Scale [UPDRS]). This connectivity profile was then used to predict outcome in an independent cohort of 44 patients from a different center. Results In the training dataset, connectivity between the DBS electrode and a distributed network of brain regions correlated with clinical response including structural connectivity to supplementary motor area and functional anticorrelation to primary motor cortex (p<0.001). This same connectivity profile predicted response in an independent patient cohort (p<0.01). Structural and functional connectivity were independent predictors of clinical improvement (p<0.001) and estimated response in individual patients with an average error of 15% UPDRS improvement. Results were similar using connectome data from normal subjects or a connectome age, sex, and disease matched to our DBS patients. Interpretation Effective STN DBS for PD is associated with a specific connectivity profile that can predict clinical outcome across independent cohorts. This prediction does not require specialized imaging in PD patients themselves. PMID:28586141

Validation of the Bulgarian version of Scales for Outcomes in Parkinson's Disease - Autonomic (SCOPA-AUT-BG).

PubMed

Mantarova, Stefka G; Velcheva, Irena V; Georgieva, Spaska O; Stambolieva, Katerina I

2013-01-01

The last twenty years have witnessed a surge of interest in the autonomic symptoms in Parkinson's disease (PD) and the possibilities to diagnose and treat them. The specialized questionnaire assessing the autonomic symptoms in Parkinson's disease (SCOPA-AUT) has been validated and available in English, Dutch and Spanish. In this study we aim at evaluating the validity, reliability and applicability of the Bulgarian version of SCOPA-AUT (SCOPA-AUT-BG). The study included 55 patients with idiopathic PD (mean age 64.4 +/- 8.9 yrs), and 40 healthy controls (mean age 58.5 +/- 9.4 yrs). Clinical severity and disease stage were assessed by United Parkinson's disease rating scale (UPRDS) and Hoen and Yahr (H&Y). Thirty-two of the PD patients completed SCOPA-AUT-BG again after a 7-day interval. Questionnaire reliability was analyzed by determining the internal consistency, homogeneity, discriminatory and construct validity and test-retest reliability. Analyses showed good internal consistency of the summary evaluation of SCOPA-AUT-BG (coefficient alpha of Cronbach = 0.79), which indicates the high reliability of the questionnaire. The lowest Cronbach's alpha coefficient (0.53) was found for the subscale "cardiovascular functions". A dominant role belongs to the subscales for gastrointestinal and urinary functions (Cronbach's Alpha > 0.7), where a significantly high correlation of PD with the UPDRS scale was observed. We found high test-retest reliability based on the responses associated with dysfunction of the gastrointestinal, urinary, thermoregulatory and pupillary autonomic systems. The correlation of the results of SCOPA-AUT-BG with UPDRS is higher than that with H&Y, and the construct validity is high except for the cardiovascular and pupillomotor functions subscales. The results of this study show that SCOPA-AUT-BG is a valid and reliable specialized questionnaire to evaluate autonomic function in patients with Parkinson's disease. Using it allows for more detailed clinical evaluation of these patients and justifies the need to refer them to specialized examination of autonomic functions.

The reliability, validity, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale.

PubMed

Chen, Chia-Wei; Chu, Hsin; Tsai, Chia-Fen; Yang, Hui-Ling; Tsai, Jui-Chen; Chung, Min-Huey; Liao, Yuan-Mei; Chi, Mei-Ju; Chou, Kuei-Ru

2015-11-01

The purpose of this study was to translate the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale into Chinese and to evaluate the psychometric properties (reliability and validity) and the diagnostic properties (sensitivity, specificity and predictive values) of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale. The accurate detection of early dementia requires screening tools with favourable cross-cultural linguistic and appropriate sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values, particularly for Chinese-speaking populations. This was a cross-sectional, descriptive study. Overall, 130 participants suspected to have cognitive impairment were enrolled in the study. A test-retest for determining reliability was scheduled four weeks after the initial test. Content validity was determined by five experts, whereas construct validity was established by using contrasted group technique. The participants' clinical diagnoses were used as the standard in calculating the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. The study revealed that the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale exhibited a test-retest reliability of 0.90, an internal consistency reliability of 0.71, an inter-rater reliability (kappa value) of 0.88 and a content validity index of 0.97. Both the patients and healthy contrast group exhibited significant differences in their cognitive ability. The optimal cut-off points for the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale in the test for mild cognitive impairment and dementia were 24 and 22, respectively; moreover, for these two conditions, the sensitivities of the scale were 0.79 and 0.76, the specificities were 0.91 and 0.81, the areas under the curve were 0.85 and 0.78, the positive predictive values were 0.99 and 0.83 and the negative predictive values were 0.96 and 0.91 respectively. The Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale exhibited sound reliability, validity, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values. This scale can help clinical staff members to quickly and accurately diagnose cognitive impairment and provide appropriate treatment as early as possible. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Measurement of cognitive performance in computer programming concept acquisition: interactive effects of visual metaphors and the cognitive style construct.

PubMed

McKay, E

2000-01-01

An innovative research program was devised to investigate the interactive effect of instructional strategies enhanced with text-plus-textual metaphors or text-plus-graphical metaphors, and cognitive style on the acquisition of programming concepts. The Cognitive Styles Analysis (CSA) program (Riding,1991) was used to establish the participants' cognitive style. The QUEST Interactive Test Analysis System (Adams and Khoo,1996) provided the cognitive performance measuring tool, which ensured an absence of error measurement in the programming knowledge testing instruments. Therefore, reliability of the instrumentation was assured through the calibration techniques utilized by the QUEST estimate; providing predictability of the research design. A means analysis of the QUEST data, using the Cohen (1977) approach to size effect and statistical power further quantified the significance of the findings. The experimental methodology adopted for this research links the disciplines of instructional science, cognitive psychology, and objective measurement to provide reliable mechanisms for beneficial use in the evaluation of cognitive performance by the education, training and development sectors. Furthermore, the research outcomes will be of interest to educators, cognitive psychologists, communications engineers, and computer scientists specializing in computer-human interactions.

Long-term stability of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children--Fourth Edition.

PubMed

Watkins, Marley W; Smith, Lourdes G

2013-06-01

Long-term stability of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth Edition (WISC-IV; Wechsler, 2003) was investigated with a sample of 344 students from 2 school districts twice evaluated for special education eligibility at an average interval of 2.84 years. Test-retest reliability coefficients for the Verbal Comprehension Index (VCI), Perceptual Reasoning Index (PRI), Working Memory Index (WMI), Processing Speed Index (PSI), and the Full Scale IQ (FSIQ) were .72, .76, .66, .65, and .82, respectively. As predicted, the test-retest reliability coefficients for the subtests (Mdn = .56) were generally lower than the index scores (Mdn = .69) and the FSIQ (.82). On average, subtest scores did not differ by more than 1 point, and index scores did not differ by more than 2 points across the test-retest interval. However, 25% of the students earned FSIQ scores that differed by 10 or more points, and 29%, 39%, 37%, and 44% of the students earned VCI, PRI, WMI, and PSI scores, respectively, that varied by 10 or more points. Given this variability, it cannot be assumed that WISC-IV scores will be consistent across long test-retest intervals for individual students. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Reliability analysis of structural ceramics subjected to biaxial flexure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Luen-Yuan; Shetty, Dinesh K.

1991-01-01

The reliability of alumina disks subjected to biaxial flexure is predicted on the basis of statistical fracture theory using a critical strain energy release rate fracture criterion. Results on a sintered silicon nitride are consistent with reliability predictions based on pore-initiated penny-shaped cracks with preferred orientation normal to the maximum principal stress. Assumptions with regard to flaw types and their orientations in each ceramic can be justified by fractography. It is shown that there are no universal guidelines for selecting fracture criteria or assuming flaw orientations in reliability analyses.

Comprehensive Design Reliability Activities for Aerospace Propulsion Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christenson, R. L.; Whitley, M. R.; Knight, K. C.

2000-01-01

This technical publication describes the methodology, model, software tool, input data, and analysis result that support aerospace design reliability studies. The focus of these activities is on propulsion systems mechanical design reliability. The goal of these activities is to support design from a reliability perspective. Paralleling performance analyses in schedule and method, this requires the proper use of metrics in a validated reliability model useful for design, sensitivity, and trade studies. Design reliability analysis in this view is one of several critical design functions. A design reliability method is detailed and two example analyses are provided-one qualitative and the other quantitative. The use of aerospace and commercial data sources for quantification is discussed and sources listed. A tool that was developed to support both types of analyses is presented. Finally, special topics discussed include the development of design criteria, issues of reliability quantification, quality control, and reliability verification.

Plant membrane proteomics.

PubMed

Ephritikhine, Geneviève; Ferro, Myriam; Rolland, Norbert

2004-12-01

Plant membrane proteins are involved in many different functions according to their location in the cell. For instance, the chloroplast has two membrane systems, thylakoids and envelope, with specialized membrane proteins for photosynthesis and metabolite and ion transporters, respectively. Although recent advances in sample preparation and analytical techniques have been achieved for the study of membrane proteins, the characterization of these proteins, especially the hydrophobic ones, is still challenging. The present review highlights recent advances in methodologies for identification of plant membrane proteins from purified subcellular structures. The interest of combining several complementary extraction procedures to take into account specific features of membrane proteins is discussed in the light of recent proteomics data, notably for chloroplast envelope, mitochondrial membranes and plasma membrane from Arabidopsis. These examples also illustrate how, on one hand, proteomics can feed bioinformatics for a better definition of prediction tools and, on the other hand, although prediction tools are not 100% reliable, they can give valuable information for biological investigations. In particular, membrane proteomics brings new insights over plant membrane systems, on both the membrane compartment where proteins are working and their putative cellular function.

Reliability Prediction Approaches For Domestic Intelligent Electric Energy Meter Based on IEC62380

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ning; Tong, Guanghua; Yang, Jincheng; Sun, Guodong; Han, Dongjun; Wang, Guixian

2018-01-01

The reliability of intelligent electric energy meter is a crucial issue considering its large calve application and safety of national intelligent grid. This paper developed a procedure of reliability prediction for domestic intelligent electric energy meter according to IEC62380, especially to identify the determination of model parameters combining domestic working conditions. A case study was provided to show the effectiveness and validation.

Understanding Interrater Reliability and Validity of Risk Assessment Tools Used to Predict Adverse Clinical Events.

PubMed

Siedlecki, Sandra L; Albert, Nancy M

This article will describe how to assess interrater reliability and validity of risk assessment tools, using easy-to-follow formulas, and to provide calculations that demonstrate principles discussed. Clinical nurse specialists should be able to identify risk assessment tools that provide high-quality interrater reliability and the highest validity for predicting true events of importance to clinical settings. Making best practice recommendations for assessment tool use is critical to high-quality patient care and safe practices that impact patient outcomes and nursing resources. Optimal risk assessment tool selection requires knowledge about interrater reliability and tool validity. The clinical nurse specialist will understand the reliability and validity issues associated with risk assessment tools, and be able to evaluate tools using basic calculations. Risk assessment tools are developed to objectively predict quality and safety events and ultimately reduce the risk of event occurrence through preventive interventions. To ensure high-quality tool use, clinical nurse specialists must critically assess tool properties. The better the tool's ability to predict adverse events, the more likely that event risk is mediated. Interrater reliability and validity assessment is relatively an easy skill to master and will result in better decisions when selecting or making recommendations for risk assessment tool use.

Reliability prediction of ontology-based service compositions using Petri net and time series models.

PubMed

Li, Jia; Xia, Yunni; Luo, Xin

2014-01-01

OWL-S, one of the most important Semantic Web service ontologies proposed to date, provides a core ontological framework and guidelines for describing the properties and capabilities of their web services in an unambiguous, computer interpretable form. Predicting the reliability of composite service processes specified in OWL-S allows service users to decide whether the process meets the quantitative quality requirement. In this study, we consider the runtime quality of services to be fluctuating and introduce a dynamic framework to predict the runtime reliability of services specified in OWL-S, employing the Non-Markovian stochastic Petri net (NMSPN) and the time series model. The framework includes the following steps: obtaining the historical response times series of individual service components; fitting these series with a autoregressive-moving-average-model (ARMA for short) and predicting the future firing rates of service components; mapping the OWL-S process into a NMSPN model; employing the predicted firing rates as the model input of NMSPN and calculating the normal completion probability as the reliability estimate. In the case study, a comparison between the static model and our approach based on experimental data is presented and it is shown that our approach achieves higher prediction accuracy.

The reliability of psychiatric diagnosis in the emergency room.

PubMed

Lieberman, P B; Baker, F M

1985-03-01

The authors compared the diagnoses made for 50 patients in an emergency room with those made during a subsequent inpatient hospitalization. They found an acceptable level of reliability for broad diagnostic categories, such as psychosis, depression, and alcoholism. The authors believe such diagnostic reliability is sufficient for emergency assessment and triage. However, the diagnosis of more specific subtypes of mental illness, such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, were not made reliably in the emergency room. The authors point out the risk of diagnostic labeling, and suggest that the tendency to overlook nonalcoholic substance abuse deserves special attention.

Conformal Prediction Based on K-Nearest Neighbors for Discrimination of Ginsengs by a Home-Made Electronic Nose

PubMed Central

Sun, Xiyang; Miao, Jiacheng; Wang, You; Luo, Zhiyuan; Li, Guang

2017-01-01

An estimate on the reliability of prediction in the applications of electronic nose is essential, which has not been paid enough attention. An algorithm framework called conformal prediction is introduced in this work for discriminating different kinds of ginsengs with a home-made electronic nose instrument. Nonconformity measure based on k-nearest neighbors (KNN) is implemented separately as underlying algorithm of conformal prediction. In offline mode, the conformal predictor achieves a classification rate of 84.44% based on 1NN and 80.63% based on 3NN, which is better than that of simple KNN. In addition, it provides an estimate of reliability for each prediction. In online mode, the validity of predictions is guaranteed, which means that the error rate of region predictions never exceeds the significance level set by a user. The potential of this framework for detecting borderline examples and outliers in the application of E-nose is also investigated. The result shows that conformal prediction is a promising framework for the application of electronic nose to make predictions with reliability and validity. PMID:28805721

HomPPI: a class of sequence homology based protein-protein interface prediction methods

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Although homology-based methods are among the most widely used methods for predicting the structure and function of proteins, the question as to whether interface sequence conservation can be effectively exploited in predicting protein-protein interfaces has been a subject of debate. Results We studied more than 300,000 pair-wise alignments of protein sequences from structurally characterized protein complexes, including both obligate and transient complexes. We identified sequence similarity criteria required for accurate homology-based inference of interface residues in a query protein sequence. Based on these analyses, we developed HomPPI, a class of sequence homology-based methods for predicting protein-protein interface residues. We present two variants of HomPPI: (i) NPS-HomPPI (Non partner-specific HomPPI), which can be used to predict interface residues of a query protein in the absence of knowledge of the interaction partner; and (ii) PS-HomPPI (Partner-specific HomPPI), which can be used to predict the interface residues of a query protein with a specific target protein. Our experiments on a benchmark dataset of obligate homodimeric complexes show that NPS-HomPPI can reliably predict protein-protein interface residues in a given protein, with an average correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.76, sensitivity of 0.83, and specificity of 0.78, when sequence homologs of the query protein can be reliably identified. NPS-HomPPI also reliably predicts the interface residues of intrinsically disordered proteins. Our experiments suggest that NPS-HomPPI is competitive with several state-of-the-art interface prediction servers including those that exploit the structure of the query proteins. The partner-specific classifier, PS-HomPPI can, on a large dataset of transient complexes, predict the interface residues of a query protein with a specific target, with a CC of 0.65, sensitivity of 0.69, and specificity of 0.70, when homologs of both the query and the target can be reliably identified. The HomPPI web server is available at http://homppi.cs.iastate.edu/. Conclusions Sequence homology-based methods offer a class of computationally efficient and reliable approaches for predicting the protein-protein interface residues that participate in either obligate or transient interactions. For query proteins involved in transient interactions, the reliability of interface residue prediction can be improved by exploiting knowledge of putative interaction partners. PMID:21682895

Developing a Scale for Innovation Management at Schools: A Study of Validity and Reliability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bulbul, Tuncer

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study is to develop a valid and reliable assessment tool for use in determining the competency beliefs of school administrators about innovation management. The scale applied to a study group of 216 school administrators, after work Centered on assessing intelligibility and specialized opinion. Exploratory and confirmatory…

Reliability and Prevalence of an Atypical Development of Phonological Skills in French-Speaking Dyslexics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sprenger-Charolles, Liliane; Cole, Pascale; Kipffer-Piquard, Agnes; Pinton, Florence; Billard, Catherine

2009-01-01

In the present study, conducted with French-speaking children, we examined the reliability (group study) and the prevalence (multiple-case study) of dyslexics' phonological deficits in reading and reading-related skills in comparison with Reading Level (RL) controls. All dyslexics with no comorbidity problem schooled in a special institution for…

Molecular Dynamics Simulations and Kinetic Measurements to Estimate and Predict Protein-Ligand Residence Times.

PubMed

Mollica, Luca; Theret, Isabelle; Antoine, Mathias; Perron-Sierra, Françoise; Charton, Yves; Fourquez, Jean-Marie; Wierzbicki, Michel; Boutin, Jean A; Ferry, Gilles; Decherchi, Sergio; Bottegoni, Giovanni; Ducrot, Pierre; Cavalli, Andrea

2016-08-11

Ligand-target residence time is emerging as a key drug discovery parameter because it can reliably predict drug efficacy in vivo. Experimental approaches to binding and unbinding kinetics are nowadays available, but we still lack reliable computational tools for predicting kinetics and residence time. Most attempts have been based on brute-force molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, which are CPU-demanding and not yet particularly accurate. We recently reported a new scaled-MD-based protocol, which showed potential for residence time prediction in drug discovery. Here, we further challenged our procedure's predictive ability by applying our methodology to a series of glucokinase activators that could be useful for treating type 2 diabetes mellitus. We combined scaled MD with experimental kinetics measurements and X-ray crystallography, promptly checking the protocol's reliability by directly comparing computational predictions and experimental measures. The good agreement highlights the potential of our scaled-MD-based approach as an innovative method for computationally estimating and predicting drug residence times.

Biochemical methane potential prediction of plant biomasses: Comparing chemical composition versus near infrared methods and linear versus non-linear models.

PubMed

Godin, Bruno; Mayer, Frédéric; Agneessens, Richard; Gerin, Patrick; Dardenne, Pierre; Delfosse, Philippe; Delcarte, Jérôme

2015-01-01

The reliability of different models to predict the biochemical methane potential (BMP) of various plant biomasses using a multispecies dataset was compared. The most reliable prediction models of the BMP were those based on the near infrared (NIR) spectrum compared to those based on the chemical composition. The NIR predictions of local (specific regression and non-linear) models were able to estimate quantitatively, rapidly, cheaply and easily the BMP. Such a model could be further used for biomethanation plant management and optimization. The predictions of non-linear models were more reliable compared to those of linear models. The presentation form (green-dried, silage-dried and silage-wet form) of biomasses to the NIR spectrometer did not influence the performances of the NIR prediction models. The accuracy of the BMP method should be improved to enhance further the BMP prediction models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated Logistics Support Analysis of the International Space Station Alpha: An Overview of the Maintenance Time Dependent Parameter Prediction Methods Enhancement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sepehry-Fard, F.; Coulthard, Maurice H.

1995-01-01

The objective of this publication is to introduce the enhancement methods for the overall reliability and maintainability methods of assessment on the International Space Station. It is essential that the process to predict the values of the maintenance time dependent variable parameters such as mean time between failure (MTBF) over time do not in themselves generate uncontrolled deviation in the results of the ILS analysis such as life cycle costs, spares calculation, etc. Furthermore, the very acute problems of micrometeorite, Cosmic rays, flares, atomic oxygen, ionization effects, orbital plumes and all the other factors that differentiate maintainable space operations from non-maintainable space operations and/or ground operations must be accounted for. Therefore, these parameters need be subjected to a special and complex process. Since reliability and maintainability strongly depend on the operating conditions that are encountered during the entire life of the International Space Station, it is important that such conditions are accurately identified at the beginning of the logistics support requirements process. Environmental conditions which exert a strong influence on International Space Station will be discussed in this report. Concurrent (combined) space environments may be more detrimental to the reliability and maintainability of the International Space Station than the effects of a single environment. In characterizing the logistics support requirements process, the developed design/test criteria must consider both the single and/or combined environments in anticipation of providing hardware capability to withstand the hazards of the International Space Station profile. The effects of the combined environments (typical) in a matrix relationship on the International Space Station will be shown. The combinations of the environments where the total effect is more damaging than the cumulative effects of the environments acting singly, may include a combination such as temperature, humidity, altitude, shock, and vibration while an item is being transported. The item's acceptance to its end-of-life sequence must be examined for these effects.

Reduction of diabetes-related distress predicts improved depressive symptoms: A secondary analysis of the DIAMOS study

PubMed Central

Schmitt, Andreas; Ehrmann, Dominic; Kulzer, Bernhard; Hermanns, Norbert

2017-01-01

Objective Depressive symptoms in people with diabetes are associated with increased risk of adverse outcomes. Although successful psychosocial treatment options are available, little is known about factors that facilitate treatment response for depression in diabetes. This prospective study aims to examine the impact of known risk factors on improvement of depressive symptoms with a special interest in the role of diabetes-related distress. Methods 181 people with diabetes participated in a randomized controlled trial. Diabetes-related distress was assessed using the Problem Areas In Diabetes (PAID) scale; depressive symptoms were assessed using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D) scale. Multiple logistic and linear regression analyses were used to assess associations between risk factors for depression (independent variables) and improvement of depressive symptoms (dependent variable). Reliable change indices were established as criteria of meaningful reductions in diabetes distress and depressive symptoms. Results A reliable reduction of diabetes-related distress (15.43 points in the PAID) was significantly associated with fourfold increased odds for reliable improvement of depressive symptoms (OR = 4.25, 95% CI: 2.05–8.79; P<0.001). This result was corroborated using continuous measures of diabetes distress and depressive symptoms, showing that greater reduction of diabetes-related distress independently predicted greater improvement in depressive symptoms (ß = -0.40; P<0.001). Higher age had a positive (Odds Ratio = 2.04, 95% CI: 1.21–3.43; P<0.01) and type 2 diabetes had a negative effect on the meaningful reduction of depressive symptoms (Odds Ratio = 0.12, 95% CI: 0.04–0.35; P<0.001). Conclusions The reduction of diabetes distress is a statistical predictor of improvement of depressive symptoms. Diabetes patients with comorbid depressive symptomatology might benefit from treatments to reduce diabetes-related distress. PMID:28700718

The paradox of verbal autopsy in cause of death assignment: symptom question unreliability but predictive accuracy.

PubMed

Serina, Peter; Riley, Ian; Hernandez, Bernardo; Flaxman, Abraham D; Praveen, Devarsetty; Tallo, Veronica; Joshi, Rohina; Sanvictores, Diozele; Stewart, Andrea; Mooney, Meghan D; Murray, Christopher J L; Lopez, Alan D

2016-01-01

We believe that it is important that governments understand the reliability of the mortality data which they have at their disposable to guide policy debates. In many instances, verbal autopsy (VA) will be the only source of mortality data for populations, yet little is known about how the accuracy of VA diagnoses is affected by the reliability of the symptom responses. We previously described the effect of the duration of time between death and VA administration on VA validity. In this paper, using the same dataset, we assess the relationship between the reliability and completeness of symptom responses and the reliability and accuracy of cause of death (COD) prediction. The study was based on VAs in the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) VA Validation Dataset from study sites in Bohol and Manila, Philippines and Andhra Pradesh, India. The initial interview was repeated within 3-52 months of death. Question responses were assessed for reliability and completeness between the two survey rounds. COD was predicted by Tariff Method. A sample of 4226 VAs was collected for 2113 decedents, including 1394 adults, 349 children, and 370 neonates. Mean question reliability was unexpectedly low ( kappa  = 0.447): 42.5 % of responses positive at the first interview were negative at the second, and 47.9 % of responses positive at the second had been negative at the first. Question reliability was greater for the short form of the PHMRC instrument ( kappa  = 0.497) and when analyzed at the level of the individual decedent ( kappa  = 0.610). Reliability at the level of the individual decedent was associated with COD predictive reliability and predictive accuracy. Families give coherent accounts of events leading to death but the details vary from interview to interview for the same case. Accounts are accurate but inconsistent; different subsets of symptoms are identified on each occasion. However, there are sufficient accurate and consistent subsets of symptoms to enable the Tariff Method to assign a COD. Questions which contributed most to COD prediction were also the most reliable and consistent across repeat interviews; these have been included in the short form VA questionnaire. Accuracy and reliability of diagnosis for an individual death depend on the quality of interview. This has considerable implications for the progressive roll out of VAs into civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems.

Depression and suicide are natural kinds: implications for physician-assisted suicide.

PubMed

Tsou, Jonathan Y

2013-01-01

In this article, I argue that depression and suicide are natural kinds insofar as they are classes of abnormal behavior underwritten by sets of stable biological mechanisms. In particular, depression and suicide are neurobiological kinds characterized by disturbances in serotonin functioning that affect various brain areas (i.e., the amygdala, anterior cingulate, prefrontal cortex, and hippocampus). The significance of this argument is that the natural (biological) basis of depression and suicide allows for reliable projectable inferences (i.e., predictions) to be made about individual members of a kind. In the context of assisted suicide, inferences about the decision-making capacity of depressed individuals seeking physician-assisted suicide are of special interest. I examine evidence that depression can hamper the decision-making capacity of individuals seeking assisted suicide and discuss some implications. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Systematic Review of the Reliability and Validity of Behavioural Tests Used to Assess Behavioural Characteristics Important in Working Dogs.

PubMed

Brady, Karen; Cracknell, Nina; Zulch, Helen; Mills, Daniel Simon

2018-01-01

Working dogs are selected based on predictions from tests that they will be able to perform specific tasks in often challenging environments. However, withdrawal from service in working dogs is still a big problem, bringing into question the reliability of the selection tests used to make these predictions. A systematic review was undertaken aimed at bringing together available information on the reliability and predictive validity of the assessment of behavioural characteristics used with working dogs to establish the quality of selection tests currently available for use to predict success in working dogs. The search procedures resulted in 16 papers meeting the criteria for inclusion. A large range of behaviour tests and parameters were used in the identified papers, and so behaviour tests and their underpinning constructs were grouped on the basis of their relationship with positive core affect (willingness to work, human-directed social behaviour, object-directed play tendencies) and negative core affect (human-directed aggression, approach withdrawal tendencies, sensitivity to aversives). We then examined the papers for reports of inter-rater reliability, within-session intra-rater reliability, test-retest validity and predictive validity. The review revealed a widespread lack of information relating to the reliability and validity of measures to assess behaviour and inconsistencies in terminologies, study parameters and indices of success. There is a need to standardise the reporting of these aspects of behavioural tests in order to improve the knowledge base of what characteristics are predictive of optimal performance in working dog roles, improving selection processes and reducing working dog redundancy. We suggest the use of a framework based on explaining the direct or indirect relationship of the test with core affect.

A SIMPLIFIED MODELING OF FLUSHING AND RESIDENCE TIME IN 42 EMBAYMENTS IN NEW ENGLAND, USA, WITH SPECIAL ATTENTION TO GRENWICH BAY, RHODE ISLAND

EPA Science Inventory

A simplified protocol has been developed to meet the need for modeling hydrodynamics and transport in large numbers of embayments quickly and reliably. The procedure is illustrated with 42 embayments in southern New England, USA, giving special attention to Greenwich Bay, RI. The...

The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children Fresh Start randomized controlled trial: Baseline participant characteristics and reliability of measures

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) Fresh Start (WFS) is a randomized controlled trial of nutrition education to promote farmers' market fruit and vegetable (F/V) purchases and consumption among women enrolled in WIC. Our objectives were to describe the ...

Progressive and Regressive Developmental Changes in Neural Substrates for Face Processing: Testing Specific Predictions of the Interactive Specialization Account

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joseph, Jane E.; Gathers, Ann D.; Bhatt, Ramesh S.

2011-01-01

Face processing undergoes a fairly protracted developmental time course but the neural underpinnings are not well understood. Prior fMRI studies have only examined progressive changes (i.e. increases in specialization in certain regions with age), which would be predicted by both the Interactive Specialization (IS) and maturational theories of…

Control and Optimization of Electric Ship Propulsion Systems with Hybrid Energy Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Jun

Electric ships experience large propulsion-load fluctuations on their drive shaft due to encountered waves and the rotational motion of the propeller, affecting the reliability of the shipboard power network and causing wear and tear. This dissertation explores new solutions to address these fluctuations by integrating a hybrid energy storage system (HESS) and developing energy management strategies (EMS). Advanced electric propulsion drive concepts are developed to improve energy efficiency, performance and system reliability by integrating HESS, developing advanced control solutions and system integration strategies, and creating tools (including models and testbed) for design and optimization of hybrid electric drive systems. A ship dynamics model which captures the underlying physical behavior of the electric ship propulsion system is developed to support control development and system optimization. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed control approaches, a state-of-the-art testbed has been constructed which includes a system controller, Li-Ion battery and ultra-capacitor (UC) modules, a high-speed flywheel, electric motors with their power electronic drives, DC/DC converters, and rectifiers. The feasibility and effectiveness of HESS are investigated and analyzed. Two different HESS configurations, namely battery/UC (B/UC) and battery/flywheel (B/FW), are studied and analyzed to provide insights into the advantages and limitations of each configuration. Battery usage, loss analysis, and sensitivity to battery aging are also analyzed for each configuration. In order to enable real-time application and achieve desired performance, a model predictive control (MPC) approach is developed, where a state of charge (SOC) reference of flywheel for B/FW or UC for B/UC is used to address the limitations imposed by short predictive horizons, because the benefits of flywheel and UC working around high-efficiency range are ignored by short predictive horizons. Given the multi-frequency characteristics of load fluctuations, a filter-based control strategy is developed to illustrate the importance of the coordination within the HESS. Without proper control strategies, the HESS solution could be worse than a single energy storage system solution. The proposed HESS, when introduced into an existing shipboard electrical propulsion system, will interact with the power generation systems. A model-based analysis is performed to evaluate the interactions of the multiple power sources when a hybrid energy storage system is introduced. The study has revealed undesirable interactions when the controls are not coordinated properly, and leads to the conclusion that a proper EMS is needed. Knowledge of the propulsion-load torque is essential for the proposed system-level EMS, but this load torque is immeasurable in most marine applications. To address this issue, a model-based approach is developed so that load torque estimation and prediction can be incorporated into the MPC. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, an input observer with linear prediction is developed as an alternative approach to obtain the load estimation and prediction. Comparative studies are performed to illustrate the importance of load torque estimation and prediction, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in terms of improved efficiency, enhanced reliability, and reduced wear and tear. Finally, the real-time MPC algorithm has been implemented on a physical testbed. Three different efforts have been made to enable real-time implementation: a specially tailored problem formulation, an efficient optimization algorithm and a multi-core hardware implementation. Compared to the filter-based strategy, the proposed real-time MPC achieves superior performance, in terms of the enhanced system reliability, improved HESS efficiency, and extended battery life.

Test-Retest Reliability of fMRI Brain Activity during Memory Encoding

PubMed Central

Brandt, David J.; Sommer, Jens; Krach, Sören; Bedenbender, Johannes; Kircher, Tilo; Paulus, Frieder M.; Jansen, Andreas

2013-01-01

The mechanisms underlying hemispheric specialization of memory are not completely understood. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) can be used to develop and test models of hemispheric specialization. In particular for memory tasks however, the interpretation of fMRI results is often hampered by the low reliability of the data. In the present study we therefore analyzed the test-retest reliability of fMRI brain activation related to an implicit memory encoding task, with a particular focus on brain activity of the medial temporal lobe (MTL). Fifteen healthy subjects were scanned with fMRI on two sessions (average retest interval 35 days) using a commonly applied novelty encoding paradigm contrasting known and unknown stimuli. To assess brain lateralization, we used three different stimuli classes that differed in their verbalizability (words, scenes, fractals). Test-retest reliability of fMRI brain activation was assessed by an intraclass-correlation coefficient (ICC), describing the stability of inter-individual differences in the brain activation magnitude over time. We found as expected a left-lateralized brain activation network for the words paradigm, a bilateral network for the scenes paradigm, and predominantly right-hemispheric brain activation for the fractals paradigm. Although these networks were consistently activated in both sessions on the group level, across-subject reliabilities were only poor to fair (ICCs ≤ 0.45). Overall, the highest ICC values were obtained for the scenes paradigm, but only in strongly activated brain regions. In particular the reliability of brain activity of the MTL was poor for all paradigms. In conclusion, for novelty encoding paradigms the interpretation of fMRI results on a single subject level is hampered by its low reliability. More studies are needed to optimize the retest reliability of fMRI activation for memory tasks. PMID:24367338

Fifty Years of THERP and Human Reliability Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ronald L. Boring

2012-06-01

In 1962 at a Human Factors Society symposium, Alan Swain presented a paper introducing a Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP). This was followed in 1963 by a Sandia Laboratories monograph outlining basic human error quantification using THERP and, in 1964, by a special journal edition of Human Factors on quantification of human performance. Throughout the 1960s, Swain and his colleagues focused on collecting human performance data for the Sandia Human Error Rate Bank (SHERB), primarily in connection with supporting the reliability of nuclear weapons assembly in the US. In 1969, Swain met with Jens Rasmussen of Risø Nationalmore » Laboratory and discussed the applicability of THERP to nuclear power applications. By 1975, in WASH-1400, Swain had articulated the use of THERP for nuclear power applications, and the approach was finalized in the watershed publication of the NUREG/CR-1278 in 1983. THERP is now 50 years old, and remains the most well known and most widely used HRA method. In this paper, the author discusses the history of THERP, based on published reports and personal communication and interviews with Swain. The author also outlines the significance of THERP. The foundations of human reliability analysis are found in THERP: human failure events, task analysis, performance shaping factors, human error probabilities, dependence, event trees, recovery, and pre- and post-initiating events were all introduced in THERP. While THERP is not without its detractors, and it is showing signs of its age in the face of newer technological applications, the longevity of THERP is a testament of its tremendous significance. THERP started the field of human reliability analysis. This paper concludes with a discussion of THERP in the context of newer methods, which can be seen as extensions of or departures from Swain’s pioneering work.« less

Fatigue criterion to system design, life and reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, E. V.

1985-01-01

A generalized methodology to structural life prediction, design, and reliability based upon a fatigue criterion is advanced. The life prediction methodology is based in part on work of W. Weibull and G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren. The approach incorporates the computed life of elemental stress volumes of a complex machine element to predict system life. The results of coupon fatigue testing can be incorporated into the analysis allowing for life prediction and component or structural renewal rates with reasonable statistical certainty.

The (un)reliability of item-level semantic priming effects.

PubMed

Heyman, Tom; Bruninx, Anke; Hutchison, Keith A; Storms, Gert

2018-04-05

Many researchers have tried to predict semantic priming effects using a myriad of variables (e.g., prime-target associative strength or co-occurrence frequency). The idea is that relatedness varies across prime-target pairs, which should be reflected in the size of the priming effect (e.g., cat should prime dog more than animal does). However, it is only insightful to predict item-level priming effects if they can be measured reliably. Thus, in the present study we examined the split-half and test-retest reliabilities of item-level priming effects under conditions that should discourage the use of strategies. The resulting priming effects proved extremely unreliable, and reanalyses of three published priming datasets revealed similar cases of low reliability. These results imply that previous attempts to predict semantic priming were unlikely to be successful. However, one study with an unusually large sample size yielded more favorable reliability estimates, suggesting that big data, in terms of items and participants, should be the future for semantic priming research.

A Response to an Article Published in "Educational Research"'s Special Issue on Assessment (June 2009). What Can Be Inferred about Classification Accuracy from Classification Consistency?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bramley, Tom

2010-01-01

Background: A recent article published in "Educational Research" on the reliability of results in National Curriculum testing in England (Newton, "The reliability of results from national curriculum testing in England," "Educational Research" 51, no. 2: 181-212, 2009) suggested that: (1) classification accuracy can be…

Missile Systems Maintenance, AFSC 411XOB/C.

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-04-01

technician’s rating. A statistical measurement of their agreement, known as the interrater reliability (as assessed through components of variance of...senior technician’s ratings. A statistical measurement of their agreement, known as the interrater reliability (as assessed through components of...FABRICATION TRANSITORS *INPUT/OUTPUT (PERIPHERAL) DEVICES SOLID-STATE SPECIAL PURPOSE DEVICES COMPUTER MICRO PROCESSORS AND PROGRAMS POWER SUPPLIES

Reliability and Validity of the Work and Well-Being Inventory (WBI) for Employees.

PubMed

Vendrig, A A; Schaafsma, F G

2018-06-01

Purpose The purpose of this study is to measure the psychometric properties of the Work and Wellbeing Inventory (WBI) (in Dutch: VAR-2), a screening tool that is used within occupational health care and rehabilitation. Our research question focused on the reliability and validity of this inventory. Methods Over the years seven different samples of workers, patients and sick listed workers varying in size between 89 and 912 participants (total: 2514), were used to measure the test-retest reliability, the internal consistency, the construct and concurrent validity, and the criterion and predictive validity. Results The 13 scales displayed good internal consistency and test-retest reliability. The constructive validity of the WBI could clearly be demonstrated in both patients and healthy workers. Confirmative factor analyses revealed a CFI >.90 for all scales. The depression scale predicted future work absenteeism (>6 weeks) because of a common mental disorder in healthy workers. The job strain scale and the illness behavior scale predicted long term absenteeism (>3 months) in workers with short-term absenteeism. The illness behavior scale moderately predicted return to work in rehab patients attending an intensive multidisciplinary program. Conclusions The WBI is a valid and reliable tool for occupational health practitioners to screen for risk factors for prolonged or future sickness absence. With this tool they will have reliable indications for further advice and interventions to restore the work ability.

The Effect of Cognitive Load and Outcome Congruency on the Learned Predictiveness Effect in Human Predictive Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jorge A. Pinto,; Vogel, Edgar H.; Núñez, Daniel E.

2017-01-01

The learned predictiveness effect or LPE is the finding that when people learn that certain cues are reliable predictors of an outcome in an initial stage of training (phase 1), they exhibit a learning bias in favor of these cues in a subsequent training involving new outcomes (phase 2) despite all cues being equally reliable in phase 2. In…

How to quantify exposure to traumatic stress? Reliability and predictive validity of measures for cumulative trauma exposure in a post-conflict population.

PubMed

Wilker, Sarah; Pfeiffer, Anett; Kolassa, Stephan; Koslowski, Daniela; Elbert, Thomas; Kolassa, Iris-Tatjana

2015-01-01

While studies with survivors of single traumatic experiences highlight individual response variation following trauma, research from conflict regions shows that almost everyone develops posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) if trauma exposure reaches extreme levels. Therefore, evaluating the effects of cumulative trauma exposure is of utmost importance in studies investigating risk factors for PTSD. Yet, little research has been devoted to evaluate how this important environmental risk factor can be best quantified. We investigated the retest reliability and predictive validity of different trauma measures in a sample of 227 Ugandan rebel war survivors. Trauma exposure was modeled as the number of traumatic event types experienced or as a score considering traumatic event frequencies. In addition, we investigated whether age at trauma exposure can be reliably measured and improves PTSD risk prediction. All trauma measures showed good reliability. While prediction of lifetime PTSD was most accurate from the number of different traumatic event types experienced, inclusion of event frequencies slightly improved the prediction of current PTSD. As assessing the number of traumatic events experienced is the least stressful and time-consuming assessment and leads to the best prediction of lifetime PTSD, we recommend this measure for research on PTSD etiology.

Reliability Prediction of Ontology-Based Service Compositions Using Petri Net and Time Series Models

PubMed Central

Li, Jia; Xia, Yunni; Luo, Xin

2014-01-01

OWL-S, one of the most important Semantic Web service ontologies proposed to date, provides a core ontological framework and guidelines for describing the properties and capabilities of their web services in an unambiguous, computer interpretable form. Predicting the reliability of composite service processes specified in OWL-S allows service users to decide whether the process meets the quantitative quality requirement. In this study, we consider the runtime quality of services to be fluctuating and introduce a dynamic framework to predict the runtime reliability of services specified in OWL-S, employing the Non-Markovian stochastic Petri net (NMSPN) and the time series model. The framework includes the following steps: obtaining the historical response times series of individual service components; fitting these series with a autoregressive-moving-average-model (ARMA for short) and predicting the future firing rates of service components; mapping the OWL-S process into a NMSPN model; employing the predicted firing rates as the model input of NMSPN and calculating the normal completion probability as the reliability estimate. In the case study, a comparison between the static model and our approach based on experimental data is presented and it is shown that our approach achieves higher prediction accuracy. PMID:24688429

Software reliability studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoppa, Mary Ann; Wilson, Larry W.

1994-01-01

There are many software reliability models which try to predict future performance of software based on data generated by the debugging process. Our research has shown that by improving the quality of the data one can greatly improve the predictions. We are working on methodologies which control some of the randomness inherent in the standard data generation processes in order to improve the accuracy of predictions. Our contribution is twofold in that we describe an experimental methodology using a data structure called the debugging graph and apply this methodology to assess the robustness of existing models. The debugging graph is used to analyze the effects of various fault recovery orders on the predictive accuracy of several well-known software reliability algorithms. We found that, along a particular debugging path in the graph, the predictive performance of different models can vary greatly. Similarly, just because a model 'fits' a given path's data well does not guarantee that the model would perform well on a different path. Further we observed bug interactions and noted their potential effects on the predictive process. We saw that not only do different faults fail at different rates, but that those rates can be affected by the particular debugging stage at which the rates are evaluated. Based on our experiment, we conjecture that the accuracy of a reliability prediction is affected by the fault recovery order as well as by fault interaction.

Calculating system reliability with SRFYDO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morzinski, Jerome; Anderson - Cook, Christine M; Klamann, Richard M

2010-01-01

SRFYDO is a process for estimating reliability of complex systems. Using information from all applicable sources, including full-system (flight) data, component test data, and expert (engineering) judgment, SRFYDO produces reliability estimates and predictions. It is appropriate for series systems with possibly several versions of the system which share some common components. It models reliability as a function of age and up to 2 other lifecycle (usage) covariates. Initial output from its Exploratory Data Analysis mode consists of plots and numerical summaries so that the user can check data entry and model assumptions, and help determine a final form for themore » system model. The System Reliability mode runs a complete reliability calculation using Bayesian methodology. This mode produces results that estimate reliability at the component, sub-system, and system level. The results include estimates of uncertainty, and can predict reliability at some not-too-distant time in the future. This paper presents an overview of the underlying statistical model for the analysis, discusses model assumptions, and demonstrates usage of SRFYDO.« less

General inattentiveness is a long-term reliable trait independently predictive of psychological health: Danish validation studies of the Mindful Attention Awareness Scale.

PubMed

Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe Allerup; Petersen, Anders; Hasselbalch, Steen Gregers

2016-05-01

The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress and mental health, after controlling for age, gender, income, socioeconomic occupational class, stressful life events, and social desirability (β = 0.32-.42, ps < .001). Second, MAAS scores showed satisfactory short-term test-retest reliability in 100 retested healthy university students. Finally, MAAS sample mean scores as well as individuals' scores demonstrated satisfactory test-retest reliability across a 6 months interval in the adult community (retested N = 407), intraclass correlations ≥ .74. MAAS scores displayed significantly stronger long-term test-retest reliability than scores measuring psychological distress (z = 2.78, p = .005). Test-retest reliability estimates did not differ within demographic and socioeconomic strata. Scores on the Danish MAAS were psychometrically validated in healthy adults. MAAS's inattentiveness scores reflected a unidimensional construct, long-term reliable disposition, and a factor of independent significance for predicting psychological health. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Enhancing Flood Prediction Reliability Using Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Merwade, V.

2017-12-01

Uncertainty analysis is an indispensable part of modeling the hydrology and hydrodynamics of non-idealized environmental systems. Compared to reliance on prediction from one model simulation, using on ensemble of predictions that consider uncertainty from different sources is more reliable. In this study, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to Black River watershed in Arkansas and Missouri by combining multi-model simulations to get reliable deterministic water stage and probabilistic inundation extent predictions. The simulation ensemble is generated from 81 LISFLOOD-FP subgrid model configurations that include uncertainty from channel shape, channel width, channel roughness and discharge. Model simulation outputs are trained with observed water stage data during one flood event, and BMA prediction ability is validated for another flood event. Results from this study indicate that BMA does not always outperform all members in the ensemble, but it provides relatively robust deterministic flood stage predictions across the basin. Station based BMA (BMA_S) water stage prediction has better performance than global based BMA (BMA_G) prediction which is superior to the ensemble mean prediction. Additionally, high-frequency flood inundation extent (probability greater than 60%) in BMA_G probabilistic map is more accurate than the probabilistic flood inundation extent based on equal weights.

Reliability of windstorm predictions in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Nico; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

Windstorms caused by extratropical cyclones are one of the most dangerous natural hazards in the European region. Therefore, reliable predictions of such storm events are needed. Case studies have shown that ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are able to provide useful information about windstorms between two and five days prior to the event. In this work, ensemble predictions with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) EPS are evaluated in a four year period. Within the 50 ensemble members, which are initialized every 12 hours and are run for 10 days, windstorms are identified and tracked in time and space. By using a clustering approach, different predictions of the same storm are identified in the different ensemble members and compared to reanalysis data. The occurrence probability of the predicted storms is estimated by fitting a bivariate normal distribution to the storm track positions. Our results show, for example, that predicted storm clusters with occurrence probabilities of more than 50% have a matching observed storm in 80% of all cases at a lead time of two days. The predicted occurrence probabilities are reliable up to 3 days lead time. At longer lead times the occurrence probabilities are overestimated by the EPS.

Predicting Intent to Get a College Degree.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Staats, Sara; Partlo, Christie

1990-01-01

Examined reliability and validity of Perceived Quality of Academic Life (PQAL) instrument with data collected from 218 midwestern commuter college students. Extended existing research by studying PQAL scores as predictors of intent to remain in college. Findings showed that the PQAL was reliable, valid, and predictive of future intent to obtain a…

Regional specialization within the human striatum for diverse psychological functions.

PubMed

Pauli, Wolfgang M; O'Reilly, Randall C; Yarkoni, Tal; Wager, Tor D

2016-02-16

Decades of animal and human neuroimaging research have identified distinct, but overlapping, striatal zones, which are interconnected with separable corticostriatal circuits, and are crucial for the organization of functional systems. Despite continuous efforts to subdivide the human striatum based on anatomical and resting-state functional connectivity, characterizing the different psychological processes related to each zone remains a work in progress. Using an unbiased, data-driven approach, we analyzed large-scale coactivation data from 5,809 human imaging studies. We (i) identified five distinct striatal zones that exhibited discrete patterns of coactivation with cortical brain regions across distinct psychological processes and (ii) identified the different psychological processes associated with each zone. We found that the reported pattern of cortical activation reliably predicted which striatal zone was most strongly activated. Critically, activation in each functional zone could be associated with distinct psychological processes directly, rather than inferred indirectly from psychological functions attributed to associated cortices. Consistent with well-established findings, we found an association of the ventral striatum (VS) with reward processing. Confirming less well-established findings, the VS and adjacent anterior caudate were associated with evaluating the value of rewards and actions, respectively. Furthermore, our results confirmed a sometimes overlooked specialization of the posterior caudate nucleus for executive functions, often considered the exclusive domain of frontoparietal cortical circuits. Our findings provide a precise functional map of regional specialization within the human striatum, both in terms of the differential cortical regions and psychological functions associated with each striatal zone.

Regional specialization within the human striatum for diverse psychological functions

PubMed Central

Pauli, Wolfgang M.; O’Reilly, Randall C.; Wager, Tor D.

2016-01-01

Decades of animal and human neuroimaging research have identified distinct, but overlapping, striatal zones, which are interconnected with separable corticostriatal circuits, and are crucial for the organization of functional systems. Despite continuous efforts to subdivide the human striatum based on anatomical and resting-state functional connectivity, characterizing the different psychological processes related to each zone remains a work in progress. Using an unbiased, data-driven approach, we analyzed large-scale coactivation data from 5,809 human imaging studies. We (i) identified five distinct striatal zones that exhibited discrete patterns of coactivation with cortical brain regions across distinct psychological processes and (ii) identified the different psychological processes associated with each zone. We found that the reported pattern of cortical activation reliably predicted which striatal zone was most strongly activated. Critically, activation in each functional zone could be associated with distinct psychological processes directly, rather than inferred indirectly from psychological functions attributed to associated cortices. Consistent with well-established findings, we found an association of the ventral striatum (VS) with reward processing. Confirming less well-established findings, the VS and adjacent anterior caudate were associated with evaluating the value of rewards and actions, respectively. Furthermore, our results confirmed a sometimes overlooked specialization of the posterior caudate nucleus for executive functions, often considered the exclusive domain of frontoparietal cortical circuits. Our findings provide a precise functional map of regional specialization within the human striatum, both in terms of the differential cortical regions and psychological functions associated with each striatal zone. PMID:26831091

Out-of-Level Testing for Special Education Students with Mild Learning Handicaps.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Eric D.; And Others

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of out-of-level testing (OLT) when it is applied to the assessment of special education students with mild learning handicaps. This evaluation of OLT involved testing hypotheses related to: (1) the adequacy of vertical scaling, (2) the reliability and (3) the validity of OLT scores. Fifty-eight…

Using Generalizability Theory to Assess the Score Reliability of the Special Ability Selection Examinations for Music Education Programmes in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atilgan, Hakan

2008-01-01

The "Special Ability Selection Examination" (SASE), which is used to select appropriate students for the music education departments of educational faculties in Turkey, has many subsections and must evaluate highly competitive cohorts of students according to a broad range of criteria. The test consists of three subsections, with a large…

Competence Assessment of Students with Special Educational Needs--Identification of Appropriate Testing Accommodations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Südkamp, Anna; Pohl, Steffi; Weinert, Sabine

2015-01-01

Including students with special educational needs in learning (SEN-L) is a challenge for large-scale assessments. In order to draw inferences with respect to students with SEN-L and to compare their scores to students in general education, one needs to assure that the measurement model is reliable and that the same construct is measured for…

Estimation of Reliability Coefficients Using the Test Information Function and Its Modifications.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Samejima, Fumiko

1994-01-01

The reliability coefficient is predicted from the test information function (TIF) or two modified TIF formulas and a specific trait distribution. Examples illustrate the variability of the reliability coefficient across different trait distributions, and results are compared with empirical reliability coefficients. (SLD)

Methods to approximate reliabilities in single-step genomic evaluation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Reliability of predictions from single-step genomic BLUP (ssGBLUP) can be calculated by inversion, but that is not feasible for large data sets. Two methods of approximating reliability were developed based on decomposition of a function of reliability into contributions from records, pedigrees, and...

Genomic selection in a commercial winter wheat population.

PubMed

He, Sang; Schulthess, Albert Wilhelm; Mirdita, Vilson; Zhao, Yusheng; Korzun, Viktor; Bothe, Reiner; Ebmeyer, Erhard; Reif, Jochen C; Jiang, Yong

2016-03-01

Genomic selection models can be trained using historical data and filtering genotypes based on phenotyping intensity and reliability criterion are able to increase the prediction ability. We implemented genomic selection based on a large commercial population incorporating 2325 European winter wheat lines. Our objectives were (1) to study whether modeling epistasis besides additive genetic effects results in enhancement on prediction ability of genomic selection, (2) to assess prediction ability when training population comprised historical or less-intensively phenotyped lines, and (3) to explore the prediction ability in subpopulations selected based on the reliability criterion. We found a 5 % increase in prediction ability when shifting from additive to additive plus epistatic effects models. In addition, only a marginal loss from 0.65 to 0.50 in accuracy was observed using the data collected from 1 year to predict genotypes of the following year, revealing that stable genomic selection models can be accurately calibrated to predict subsequent breeding stages. Moreover, prediction ability was maximized when the genotypes evaluated in a single location were excluded from the training set but subsequently decreased again when the phenotyping intensity was increased above two locations, suggesting that the update of the training population should be performed considering all the selected genotypes but excluding those evaluated in a single location. The genomic prediction ability was substantially higher in subpopulations selected based on the reliability criterion, indicating that phenotypic selection for highly reliable individuals could be directly replaced by applying genomic selection to them. We empirically conclude that there is a high potential to assist commercial wheat breeding programs employing genomic selection approaches.

Development of confidence limits by pivotal functions for estimating software reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dotson, Kelly J.

1987-01-01

The utility of pivotal functions is established for assessing software reliability. Based on the Moranda geometric de-eutrophication model of reliability growth, confidence limits for attained reliability and prediction limits for the time to the next failure are derived using a pivotal function approach. Asymptotic approximations to the confidence and prediction limits are considered and are shown to be inadequate in cases where only a few bugs are found in the software. Departures from the assumed exponentially distributed interfailure times in the model are also investigated. The effect of these departures is discussed relative to restricting the use of the Moranda model.

Solar-cell interconnect design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mon, G. R.; Moore, D. M.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

1984-01-01

Useful solar cell interconnect reliability design and life prediction algorithms are presented, together with experimental data indicating that the classical strain cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material does not account for the statistical scatter that is required in reliability predictions. This shortcoming is presently addressed by fitting a functional form to experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data, which thereby yields statistical fatigue curves enabling not only the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, but also the quantitative interpretation of data from accelerated thermal cycling tests. Optimal interconnect cost reliability design algorithms are also derived which may allow the minimization of energy cost over the design life of the array field.

Solar-cell interconnect design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mon, G. R.; Moore, D. M.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

1984-11-01

Useful solar cell interconnect reliability design and life prediction algorithms are presented, together with experimental data indicating that the classical strain cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material does not account for the statistical scatter that is required in reliability predictions. This shortcoming is presently addressed by fitting a functional form to experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data, which thereby yields statistical fatigue curves enabling not only the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, but also the quantitative interpretation of data from accelerated thermal cycling tests. Optimal interconnect cost reliability design algorithms are also derived which may allow the minimization of energy cost over the design life of the array field.

Feasibility of developing LSI microcircuit reliability prediction models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryerson, C. M.

1972-01-01

In the proposed modeling approach, when any of the essential key factors are not known initially, they can be approximated in various ways with a known impact on the accuracy of the final predictions. For example, on any program where reliability predictions are started at interim states of project completion, a-priori approximate estimates of the key factors are established for making preliminary predictions. Later these are refined for greater accuracy as subsequent program information of a more definitive nature becomes available. Specific steps to develop, validate and verify these new models are described.

Planning for an Aging America: The Void in Reliable Data. Hearing before the Select Committee on Aging. House of Representatives, One Hundredth Congress, First Session (October 20, 1987).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Congress of the U.S., Washington, DC. House Select Committee on Aging.

This document contains testimonies and prepared statements from the Congressional hearing called to examine the difficulties associated with the lack of reliable demographic data for use in planning appropriate assistance to "special populations" of older Americans, including minorities, persons with disabilities, the rural elderly,…

Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Dennis; Phelps, Jack; Perkins, Fred

2010-01-01

RSRM is a highly reliable human-rated Solid Rocket Motor: a) Largest diameter SRM to achieve flight status; b) Only human-rated SRM. RSRM reliability achieved by: a)Applying special attention to Process Control, Testing, and Postflight; b) Communicating often; c) Identifying and addressing issues in a disciplined approach; d) Identifying and fully dispositioning "out-of-family" conditions; e) Addressing minority opinions; and f) Learning our lessons.

On the use and the performance of software reliability growth models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keiller, Peter A.; Miller, Douglas R.

1991-01-01

We address the problem of predicting future failures for a piece of software. The number of failures occurring during a finite future time interval is predicted from the number failures observed during an initial period of usage by using software reliability growth models. Two different methods for using the models are considered: straightforward use of individual models, and dynamic selection among models based on goodness-of-fit and quality-of-prediction criteria. Performance is judged by the relative error of the predicted number of failures over future finite time intervals relative to the number of failures eventually observed during the intervals. Six of the former models and eight of the latter are evaluated, based on their performance on twenty data sets. Many open questions remain regarding the use and the performance of software reliability growth models.

Validity, Reliability, and Performance Determinants of a New Job-Specific Anaerobic Work Capacity Test for the Norwegian Navy Special Operations Command.

PubMed

Angeltveit, Andreas; Paulsen, Gøran; Solberg, Paul A; Raastad, Truls

2016-02-01

Operators in Special Operation Forces (SOF) have a particularly demanding profession where physical and psychological capacities can be challenged to the extremes. The diversity of physical capacities needed depend on the mission. Consequently, tests used to monitor SOF operators' physical fitness should cover a broad range of physical capacities. Whereas tests for strength and aerobic endurance are established, there is no test for specific anaerobic work capacity described in the literature. The purpose of this study was therefore to evaluate the reliability, validity, and to identify performance determinants of a new test developed for testing specific anaerobic work capacity in SOF operators. Nineteen active young students were included in the concurrent validity part of the study. The students performed the evacuation (EVAC) test 3 times and the results were compared for reliability and with performance in the Wingate cycle test, 300-m sprint, and a maximal accumulated oxygen deficit (MAOD) test. In part II of the study, 21 Norwegian Navy Special Operations Command operators conducted the EVAC test, anthropometric measurements, a dual x-ray absorptiometry scan, leg press, isokinetic knee extensions, maximal oxygen uptake test, and countermovement jump (CMJ) test. The EVAC test showed good reliability after 1 familiarization trial (intraclass correlation = 0.89; coefficient of variance = 3.7%). The EVAC test correlated well with the Wingate test (r = -0.68), 300-m sprint time (r = 0.51), and 300-m mean power (W) (r = -0.67). No significant correlation was found with the MAOD test. In part II of the study, height, body mass, lean body mass, isokinetic knee extension torque, maximal oxygen uptake, and maximal power in a CMJ was significantly correlated with performance in the EVAC test. The EVAC test is a reliable and valid test for anaerobic work capacity for SOF operators, and muscle mass, leg strength, and leg power seem to be the most important determinants of performance.

Reliability Prediction for Aerospace Electronics

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-20

RESEARCH AUTHORITY 3 KIRYAT HAMADA ARIEL ISRAEL EOARD GRANT FA9550-14-1-0216 Report Date: April 2015 Final Report for 15 July 2014 to 14... Ariel , Israel Period of Performance 15 July 2014 – 14 April 2015   Abstract...AFRL-AFOSR-UK-TR-2015-0028 Reliability Prediction for Aerospace Electronics Joseph B. Bernstein ARIEL UNIVERSITY

Predictions of Crystal Structure Based on Radius Ratio: How Reliable Are They?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nathan, Lawrence C.

1985-01-01

Discussion of crystalline solids in undergraduate curricula often includes the use of radius ratio rules as a method for predicting which type of crystal structure is likely to be adopted by a given ionic compound. Examines this topic, establishing more definitive guidelines for the use and reliability of the rules. (JN)

Wearable Lactate Threshold Predicting Device is Valid and Reliable in Runners.

PubMed

Borges, Nattai R; Driller, Matthew W

2016-08-01

Borges, NR and Driller, MW. Wearable lactate threshold predicting device is valid and reliable in runners. J Strength Cond Res 30(8): 2212-2218, 2016-A commercially available device claiming to be the world's first wearable lactate threshold predicting device (WLT), using near-infrared LED technology, has entered the market. The aim of this study was to determine the levels of agreement between the WLT-derived lactate threshold workload and traditional methods of lactate threshold (LT) calculation and the interdevice and intradevice reliability of the WLT. Fourteen (7 male, 7 female; mean ± SD; age: 18-45 years, height: 169 ± 9 cm, mass: 67 ± 13 kg, V[Combining Dot Above]O2max: 53 ± 9 ml·kg·min) subjects ranging from recreationally active to highly trained athletes completed an incremental exercise test to exhaustion on a treadmill. Blood lactate samples were taken at the end of each 3-minute stage during the test to determine lactate threshold using 5 traditional methods from blood lactate analysis which were then compared against the WLT predicted value. In a subset of the population (n = 12), repeat trials were performed to determine both inter-reliability and intrareliability of the WLT device. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) found high to very high agreement between the WLT and traditional methods (ICC > 0.80), with TEMs and mean differences ranging between 3.9-10.2% and 1.3-9.4%. Both interdevice and intradevice reliability resulted in highly reproducible and comparable results (CV < 1.2%, TEM <0.2 km·h, ICC > 0.97). This study suggests that the WLT is a practical, reliable, and noninvasive tool for use in predicting LT in runners.

Pocket Handbook on Reliability

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-09-01

exponencial distributions Weibull distribution, -xtimating reliability, confidence intervals, relia- bility growth, 0. P- curves, Bayesian analysis. 20 A S...introduction for those not familiar with reliability and a good refresher for those who are currently working in the area. LEWIS NERI, CHIEF...includes one or both of the following objectives: a) prediction of the current system reliability, b) projection on the system reliability for someI future

Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

2013-10-01

Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We found that moderate-to-marked yield loss over a substantial percentage (26-33%) of the harvested area of these crops is reliably predictable if climatic forecasts are near perfect. However, only rice and wheat production are reliably predictable at three months before the harvest using within-season hindcasts. The reliabilities of estimates varied substantially by crop--rice and wheat yields were the most predictable, followed by soybean and maize. The reasons for variation in the reliability of the estimates included the differences in crop sensitivity to the climate and the technology used by the crop-producing regions. Our findings reveal that the use of seasonal climatic forecasts to predict crop failures will be useful for monitoring global food production and will encourage the adaptation of food systems toclimatic extremes.

Longitudinal dispersion coefficient depending on superficial velocity of hydrogen isotopes flowing in column packed with zeolite pellets at 77.4 K

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kotoh, K.; Graduate School of Engineering, Kyushu University, Nishi-ku, Fukuoka; Kubo, K.

2015-03-15

Authors have been developing a cryogenic pressure swing adsorption system for hydrogen isotope separation. In the problem of its design and operation, it is necessary to predict the concentration profiles developing in packed beds of adsorbent pellets. The profiling is affected by the longitudinal dispersion of gas flowing in packed beds, in addition to the mass transfer resistance in porous media of adsorbent pellets. In this work, an equation is derived for estimating the packed-bed dispersion coefficient of hydrogen isotopes, by analyzing the breakthrough curves of trace D{sub 2} or HD replacing H{sub 2} adsorbed in synthetic zeolite particles packedmore » columns at the liquefied nitrogen temperature 77.4 K. Since specialized for hydrogen isotopes, this equation can be considered to estimate the dispersion coefficients more reliable for the cryogenic hydrogen isotope adsorption process, than the existing equations. (authors)« less

Digital templating for THA: a simple computer-assisted application for complex hip arthritis cases.

PubMed

Hafez, Mahmoud A; Ragheb, Gad; Hamed, Adel; Ali, Amr; Karim, Said

2016-10-01

Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is the standard procedure for end-stage arthritis of the hip. Its technical success relies on preoperative planning of the surgical procedure and virtual setup of the operative performance. Digital hip templating is one methodology of preoperative planning for THA which requires a digital preoperative radiograph and a computer with special software. This is a prospective study involving 23 patients (25 hips) who were candidates for complex THA surgery (unilateral or bilateral). Digital templating is done by radiographic assessment using radiographic magnification correction, leg length discrepancy and correction measurements, acetabular component and femoral component templating as well as neck resection measurement. The overall accuracy for templating the stem implant's exact size is 81%. This percentage increased to 94% when considering sizing within 1 size. Digital templating has proven effective, reliable and essential technique for preoperative planning and accurate prediction of THA sizing and alignment.

Assessment of the reliability of protein-protein interactions and protein function prediction.

PubMed

Deng, Minghua; Sun, Fengzhu; Chen, Ting

2003-01-01

As more and more high-throughput protein-protein interaction data are collected, the task of estimating the reliability of different data sets becomes increasingly important. In this paper, we present our study of two groups of protein-protein interaction data, the physical interaction data and the protein complex data, and estimate the reliability of these data sets using three different measurements: (1) the distribution of gene expression correlation coefficients, (2) the reliability based on gene expression correlation coefficients, and (3) the accuracy of protein function predictions. We develop a maximum likelihood method to estimate the reliability of protein interaction data sets according to the distribution of correlation coefficients of gene expression profiles of putative interacting protein pairs. The results of the three measurements are consistent with each other. The MIPS protein complex data have the highest mean gene expression correlation coefficients (0.256) and the highest accuracy in predicting protein functions (70% sensitivity and specificity), while Ito's Yeast two-hybrid data have the lowest mean (0.041) and the lowest accuracy (15% sensitivity and specificity). Uetz's data are more reliable than Ito's data in all three measurements, and the TAP protein complex data are more reliable than the HMS-PCI data in all three measurements as well. The complex data sets generally perform better in function predictions than do the physical interaction data sets. Proteins in complexes are shown to be more highly correlated in gene expression. The results confirm that the components of a protein complex can be assigned to functions that the complex carries out within a cell. There are three interaction data sets different from the above two groups: the genetic interaction data, the in-silico data and the syn-express data. Their capability of predicting protein functions generally falls between that of the Y2H data and that of the MIPS protein complex data. The supplementary information is available at the following Web site: http://www-hto.usc.edu/-msms/AssessInteraction/.

External Validation and Evaluation of Reliability and Validity of the Modified Seoul National University Renal Stone Complexity Scoring System to Predict Stone-Free Status After Retrograde Intrarenal Surgery.

PubMed

Park, Juhyun; Kang, Minyong; Jeong, Chang Wook; Oh, Sohee; Lee, Jeong Woo; Lee, Seung Bae; Son, Hwancheol; Jeong, Hyeon; Cho, Sung Yong

2015-08-01

The modified Seoul National University Renal Stone Complexity scoring system (S-ReSC-R) for retrograde intrarenal surgery (RIRS) was developed as a tool to predict stone-free rate (SFR) after RIRS. We externally validated the S-ReSC-R. We retrospectively reviewed 159 patients who underwent RIRS. The S-ReSC-R was assigned from 1 to 12 according to the location and number of sites involved. The stone-free status was defined as no evidence of a stone or with clinically insignificant residual fragment stones less than 2 mm. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities were evaluated. Statistical performance of the prediction model was assessed by its predictive accuracy, predictive probability, and clinical usefulness. Overall SFR was 73.0%. The SFRs were 86.7%, 70.2%, and 48.6% in low-score (1-2), intermediate-score (3-4), and high-score (5-12) groups, respectively (p<0.001). External validation of S-ReSC-R revealed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.731 (95% CI 0.650-0.813). The AUC of the three-titered S-ReSC-R was 0.701 (95% CI 0.609-0.794). The calibration plot showed that the predicted probability of SFR had a concordance comparable to that of observed frequency. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test revealed a p-value of 0.01 for the S-ReSC-R and 0.90 for the three-titered S-ReSC-R. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities revealed an almost perfect level of agreement. The present study proved the predictive value of S-ReSC-R to predict SFR following RIRS in an independent cohort. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities confirmed that S-ReSC-R was reliable and valid.

Accuracy of genomic predictions in Gyr (Bos indicus) dairy cattle.

PubMed

Boison, S A; Utsunomiya, A T H; Santos, D J A; Neves, H H R; Carvalheiro, R; Mészáros, G; Utsunomiya, Y T; do Carmo, A S; Verneque, R S; Machado, M A; Panetto, J C C; Garcia, J F; Sölkner, J; da Silva, M V G B

2017-07-01

Genomic selection may accelerate genetic progress in breeding programs of indicine breeds when compared with traditional selection methods. We present results of genomic predictions in Gyr (Bos indicus) dairy cattle of Brazil for milk yield (MY), fat yield (FY), protein yield (PY), and age at first calving using information from bulls and cows. Four different single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) chips were studied. Additionally, the effect of the use of imputed data on genomic prediction accuracy was studied. A total of 474 bulls and 1,688 cows were genotyped with the Illumina BovineHD (HD; San Diego, CA) and BovineSNP50 (50K) chip, respectively. Genotypes of cows were imputed to HD using FImpute v2.2. After quality check of data, 496,606 markers remained. The HD markers present on the GeneSeek SGGP-20Ki (15,727; Lincoln, NE), 50K (22,152), and GeneSeek GGP-75Ki (65,018) were subset and used to assess the effect of lower SNP density on accuracy of prediction. Deregressed breeding values were used as pseudophenotypes for model training. Data were split into reference and validation to mimic a forward prediction scheme. The reference population consisted of animals whose birth year was ≤2004 and consisted of either only bulls (TR1) or a combination of bulls and dams (TR2), whereas the validation set consisted of younger bulls (born after 2004). Genomic BLUP was used to estimate genomic breeding values (GEBV) and reliability of GEBV (R 2 PEV ) was based on the prediction error variance approach. Reliability of GEBV ranged from ∼0.46 (FY and PY) to 0.56 (MY) with TR1 and from 0.51 (PY) to 0.65 (MY) with TR2. When averaged across all traits, R 2 PEV were substantially higher (R 2 PEV of TR1 = 0.50 and TR2 = 0.57) compared with reliabilities of parent averages (0.35) computed from pedigree data and based on diagonals of the coefficient matrix (prediction error variance approach). Reliability was similar for all the 4 marker panels using either TR1 or TR2, except that imputed HD cow data set led to an inflation of reliability. Reliability of GEBV could be increased by enlarging the limited bull reference population with cow information. A reduced panel of ∼15K markers resulted in reliabilities similar to using HD markers. Reliability of GEBV could be increased by enlarging the limited bull reference population with cow information. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Phenomenological Study of the Lived Experiences of Parents of Young Children with Autism Receiving Special Education Services

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barrow, Donna Marie

2017-01-01

Over the past two decades reported rates of autism have steadily risen. The current incidence is 1 in 68 children. While autism can be reliably diagnosed at 18 months in most children with the condition, specialized autism treatment rarely begins before a child's third or fourth birthday. As screening and diagnosis procedures improve so does the…

OPTIMIZING MODEL PERFORMANCE: VARIABLE SIZE RESOLUTION IN CLOUD CHEMISTRY MODELING. (R826371C005)

EPA Science Inventory

Under many conditions size-resolved aqueous-phase chemistry models predict higher sulfate production rates than comparable bulk aqueous-phase models. However, there are special circumstances under which bulk and size-resolved models offer similar predictions. These special con...

10 CFR 70.74 - Additional reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Additional Requirements for Certain Licensees Authorized To Possess a Critical Mass of Special Nuclear... subpart is complete. (5) Each licensee shall provide reasonable assurance that reliable communication with...

Contribution of domestic production records, Interbull estimated breeding values, and single nucleotide polymorphism genetic markers to the single-step genomic evaluation of milk production.

PubMed

Přibyl, J; Madsen, P; Bauer, J; Přibylová, J; Simečková, M; Vostrý, L; Zavadilová, L

2013-03-01

Estimated breeding values (EBV) for first-lactation milk production of Holstein cattle in the Czech Republic were calculated using a conventional animal model and by single-step prediction of the genomic enhanced breeding value. Two overlapping data sets of milk production data were evaluated: (1) calving years 1991 to 2006, with 861,429 lactations and 1,918,901 animals in the pedigree and (2) calving years 1991 to 2010, with 1,097,319 lactations and 1,906,576 animals in the pedigree. Global Interbull (Uppsala, Sweden) deregressed proofs of 114,189 bulls were used in the analyses. Reliabilities of Interbull values were equivalent to an average of 8.53 effective records, which were used in a weighted analysis. A total of 1,341 bulls were genotyped using the Illumina BovineSNP50 BeadChip V2 (Illumina Inc., San Diego, CA). Among the genotyped bulls were 332 young bulls with no daughters in the first data set but more than 50 daughters (88.41, on average) with performance records in the second data set. For young bulls, correlations of EBV and genomic enhanced breeding value before and after progeny testing, corresponding average expected reliabilities, and effective daughter contributions (EDC) were calculated. The reliability of prediction pedigree EBV of young bulls was 0.41, corresponding to EDC=10.6. Including Interbull deregressed proofs improved the reliability of prediction by EDC=13.4 and including genotyping improved prediction reliability by EDC=6.2. Total average expected reliability of prediction reached 0.67, corresponding to EDC=30.2. The combination of domestic and Interbull sources for both genotyped and nongenotyped animals is valuable for improving the accuracy of genetic prediction in small populations of dairy cattle. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale: A Reliability Generalization Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

López-Pina, José Antonio; Sánchez-Meca, Julio; López-López, José Antonio; Marín-Martínez, Fulgencio; Núñez-Núñez, Rosa Maria; Rosa-Alcázar, Ana I; Gómez-Conesa, Antonia; Ferrer-Requena, Josefa

2015-10-01

The Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS) is the most frequently applied test to assess obsessive compulsive symptoms. We conducted a reliability generalization meta-analysis on the Y-BOCS to estimate the average reliability, examine the variability among the reliability estimates, search for moderators, and propose a predictive model that researchers and clinicians can use to estimate the expected reliability of the Y-BOCS. We included studies where the Y-BOCS was applied to a sample of adults and reliability estimate was reported. Out of the 11,490 references located, 144 studies met the selection criteria. For the total scale, the mean reliability was 0.866 for coefficients alpha, 0.848 for test-retest correlations, and 0.922 for intraclass correlations. The moderator analyses led to a predictive model where the standard deviation of the total test and the target population (clinical vs. nonclinical) explained 38.6% of the total variability among coefficients alpha. Finally, clinical implications of the results are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

Separating predictable and unpredictable work to manage interruptions and promote safe and effective work flow.

PubMed

Kowinsky, Amy M; Shovel, Judith; McLaughlin, Maribeth; Vertacnik, Lisa; Greenhouse, Pamela K; Martin, Susan Christie; Minnier, Tamra E

2012-01-01

Predictable and unpredictable patient care tasks compete for caregiver time and attention, making it difficult for patient care staff to reliably and consistently meet patient needs. We have piloted a redesigned care model that separates the work of patient care technicians based on task predictability and creates role specificity. This care model shows promise in improving the ability of staff to reliably complete tasks in a more consistent and timely manner.

The reliability of multistory buildings with the effect of non-uniform settlements of foundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al'Malul, Rafik; Gadzhuntsev, Michail

2018-03-01

The issue is the evaluation of reliability of construction considering the influence of the variation of the support settlement, which is changing during the lifetime of constructions due to the consolidation process of the ground. Recently, the specialists give special emphasis to the necessity to develop the methods for the estimation of reliability and durability of structures. The problem, the article considers, is the determination of the reliability of multistory buildings with non-uniform changing-in-time sediments caused by the consolidation process in soils. Failure of structures may occur before the draft reaches it`s stabilizing value, because of the violations of the conditions of normal use.

Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III: Scenario analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huisman, J.A.; Breuer, L.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.; Willems, P.

2009-01-01

An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Puppy Temperament Assessments Predict Breed and American Kennel Club Group but Not Adult Temperament.

PubMed

Robinson, Lauren M; Skiver Thompson, Rebekah; Ha, James C

2016-01-01

Puppy assessments for companion dogs have shown mixed long-term reliability. Temperament is cited among the reasons for surrendering dogs to shelters. A puppy temperament test that reliably predicts adult behavior is one potential way to lower the number of dogs given to shelters. This study used a longitudinal design to assess temperament in puppies from 8 different breeds at 7 weeks old (n = 52) and 6 years old (n = 34) using modified temperament tests, physiological measures, and a follow-up questionnaire. For 7-week-old puppies, results revealed (a) puppy breed was predictable using 3 variables, (b) 4 American Kennel Club breed groups had some validity based on temperament, (c) temperament was variable within litters of puppies, and (d) certain measures of temperament were related to physiological measures (heart rate). Finally, puppy temperament assessments were reliable in predicting the scores of 2 of the 8 adult dog temperament measures. However, overall, the puppy temperament scores were unreliable in predicting adult temperament.

An improved grey model for the prediction of real-time GPS satellite clock bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Z. Y.; Chen, Y. Q.; Lu, X. S.

2008-07-01

In real-time GPS precise point positioning (PPP), real-time and reliable satellite clock bias (SCB) prediction is a key to implement real-time GPS PPP. It is difficult to hold the nuisance and inenarrable performance of space-borne GPS satellite atomic clock because of its high-frequency, sensitivity and impressionable, it accords with the property of grey model (GM) theory, i. e. we can look on the variable process of SCB as grey system. Firstly, based on limits of quadratic polynomial (QP) and traditional GM to predict SCB, a modified GM (1,1) is put forward to predict GPS SCB in this paper; and then, taking GPS SCB data for example, we analyzed clock bias prediction with different sample interval, the relationship between GM exponent and prediction accuracy, precision comparison of GM to QP, and concluded the general rule of different type SCB and GM exponent; finally, to test the reliability and validation of the modified GM what we put forward, taking IGS clock bias ephemeris product as reference, we analyzed the prediction precision with the modified GM, It is showed that the modified GM is reliable and validation to predict GPS SCB and can offer high precise SCB prediction for real-time GPS PPP.

Computational prediction of hinge axes in proteins

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background A protein's function is determined by the wide range of motions exhibited by its 3D structure. However, current experimental techniques are not able to reliably provide the level of detail required for elucidating the exact mechanisms of protein motion essential for effective drug screening and design. Computational tools are instrumental in the study of the underlying structure-function relationship. We focus on a special type of proteins called "hinge proteins" which exhibit a motion that can be interpreted as a rotation of one domain relative to another. Results This work proposes a computational approach that uses the geometric structure of a single conformation to predict the feasible motions of the protein and is founded in recent work from rigidity theory, an area of mathematics that studies flexibility properties of general structures. Given a single conformational state, our analysis predicts a relative axis of motion between two specified domains. We analyze a dataset of 19 structures known to exhibit this hinge-like behavior. For 15, the predicted axis is consistent with a motion to a second, known conformation. We present a detailed case study for three proteins whose dynamics have been well-studied in the literature: calmodulin, the LAO binding protein and the Bence-Jones protein. Conclusions Our results show that incorporating rigidity-theoretic analyses can lead to effective computational methods for understanding hinge motions in macromolecules. This initial investigation is the first step towards a new tool for probing the structure-dynamics relationship in proteins. PMID:25080829

48 CFR 41.205 - Separate contracts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... following information: (1) The number of available suppliers. (2) Any special equipment, service reliability... termination liability. (4) Total estimated contract value (including costs in subparagraphs (b) (2) and (3) of...

Carcinogen File: The Ames Test.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kendall, Jim; Kriebel, David

1979-01-01

This test measures the capability of a chemical substance to cause mutations in special strains of the bacterium Salmonella. It is quick, taking only forty-eight hours, inexpensive, and reliable. (BB)

Confronting uncertainty in flood damage predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Vogel, Kristin; Merz, Bruno

2015-04-01

Reliable flood damage models are a prerequisite for the practical usefulness of the model results. Oftentimes, traditional uni-variate damage models as for instance depth-damage curves fail to reproduce the variability of observed flood damage. Innovative multi-variate probabilistic modelling approaches are promising to capture and quantify the uncertainty involved and thus to improve the basis for decision making. In this study we compare the predictive capability of two probabilistic modelling approaches, namely Bagging Decision Trees and Bayesian Networks. For model evaluation we use empirical damage data which are available from computer aided telephone interviews that were respectively compiled after the floods in 2002, 2005 and 2006, in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. We carry out a split sample test by sub-setting the damage records. One sub-set is used to derive the models and the remaining records are used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. Further we stratify the sample according to catchments which allows studying model performance in a spatial transfer context. Flood damage estimation is carried out on the scale of the individual buildings in terms of relative damage. The predictive performance of the models is assessed in terms of systematic deviations (mean bias), precision (mean absolute error) as well as in terms of reliability which is represented by the proportion of the number of observations that fall within the 95-quantile and 5-quantile predictive interval. The reliability of the probabilistic predictions within validation runs decreases only slightly and achieves a very good coverage of observations within the predictive interval. Probabilistic models provide quantitative information about prediction uncertainty which is crucial to assess the reliability of model predictions and improves the usefulness of model results.

Phenotypic plasticity and specialization in clonal versus non-clonal plants: A data synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazlioglu, Fatih; Bonser, Stephen P.

2016-11-01

Reproductive strategies can be associated with ecological specialization and generalization. Clonal plants produce lineages adapted to the maternal habitat that can lead to specialization. However, clonal plants frequently display high phenotypic plasticity (e.g. clonal foraging for resources), factors linked to ecological generalization. Alternately, sexual reproduction can be associated with generalization via increasing genetic variation or specialization through rapid adaptive evolution. Moreover, specializing to high or low quality habitats can determine how phenotypic plasticity is expressed in plants. The specialization hypothesis predicts that specialization to good environments results in high performance trait plasticity and specialization to bad environments results in low performance trait plasticity. The interplay between reproductive strategies, phenotypic plasticity, and ecological specialization is important for understanding how plants adapt to variable environments. However, we currently have a poor understanding of these relationships. In this study, we addressed following questions: 1) Is there a relationship between phenotypic plasticity, specialization, and reproductive strategies in plants? 2) Do good habitat specialists express greater performance trait plasticity than bad habitat specialists? We searched the literature for studies examining plasticity for performance traits and functional traits in clonal and non-clonal plant species from different habitat types. We found that non-clonal (obligate sexual) plants expressed greater performance trait plasticity and functional trait plasticity than clonal plants. That is, non-clonal plants exhibited a specialist strategy where they perform well only in a limited range of habitats. Clonal plants expressed less performance loss across habitats and a more generalist strategy. In addition, specialization to good habitats did not result in greater performance trait plasticity. This result was contrary to the predictions of the specialization hypothesis. Overall, reproductive strategies are associated with ecological specialization or generalization through phenotypic plasticity. While specialization is common in plant populations, the evolution of specialization does not control the nature of phenotypic plasticity as predicted under the specialization hypothesis.

Warranty optimisation based on the prediction of costs to the manufacturer using neural network model and Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stamenkovic, Dragan D.; Popovic, Vladimir M.

2015-02-01

Warranty is a powerful marketing tool, but it always involves additional costs to the manufacturer. In order to reduce these costs and make use of warranty's marketing potential, the manufacturer needs to master the techniques for warranty cost prediction according to the reliability characteristics of the product. In this paper a combination free replacement and pro rata warranty policy is analysed as warranty model for one type of light bulbs. Since operating conditions have a great impact on product reliability, they need to be considered in such analysis. A neural network model is used to predict light bulb reliability characteristics based on the data from the tests of light bulbs in various operating conditions. Compared with a linear regression model used in the literature for similar tasks, the neural network model proved to be a more accurate method for such prediction. Reliability parameters obtained in this way are later used in Monte Carlo simulation for the prediction of times to failure needed for warranty cost calculation. The results of the analysis make possible for the manufacturer to choose the optimal warranty policy based on expected product operating conditions. In such a way, the manufacturer can lower the costs and increase the profit.

Validated Questionnaire of Maternal Attitude and Knowledge for Predicting Caries Risk in Children: Epidemiological Study in North Jakarta, Indonesia.

PubMed

Laksmiastuti, Sri Ratna; Budiardjo, Sarworini Bagio; Sutadi, Heriandi

2017-06-01

Predicting caries risk in children can be done by identifying caries risk factors. It is an important measure which contributes to best understanding of the cariogenic profile of the patient. Identification could be done by clinical examination and answering the questionnaire. We arrange the study to verify the questionnaire validation for predicting caries risk in children. The study was conducted on 62 pairs of mothers and their children, aged between 3 and 5 years. The questionnaire consists of 10 questions concerning mothers' attitude and knowledge about oral health. The reliability and validity test is based on Cronbach's alpha and correlation coefficient value. All question are reliable (Cronbach's alpha = 0.873) and valid (Corrected item-total item correlation >0.4). Five questionnaires of mother's attitude about oral health and five questionnaires of mother's knowledge about oral health are reliable and valid for predicting caries risk in children.

A Step Made Toward Designing Microelectromechanical System (MEMS) Structures With High Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.

2003-01-01

The mechanical design of microelectromechanical systems-particularly for micropower generation applications-requires the ability to predict the strength capacity of load-carrying components over the service life of the device. These microdevices, which typically are made of brittle materials such as polysilicon, show wide scatter (stochastic behavior) in strength as well as a different average strength for different sized structures (size effect). These behaviors necessitate either costly and time-consuming trial-and-error designs or, more efficiently, the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS. Over the years, the NASA Glenn Research Center s Life Prediction Branch has developed the CARES/Life probabilistic design methodology to predict the reliability of advanced ceramic components. In this study, done in collaboration with Johns Hopkins University, the ability of the CARES/Life code to predict the reliability of polysilicon microsized structures with stress concentrations is successfully demonstrated.

[A reliability growth assessment method and its application in the development of equipment in space cabin].

PubMed

Chen, J D; Sun, H L

1999-04-01

Objective. To assess and predict reliability of an equipment dynamically by making full use of various test informations in the development of products. Method. A new reliability growth assessment method based on army material system analysis activity (AMSAA) model was developed. The method is composed of the AMSAA model and test data conversion technology. Result. The assessment and prediction results of a space-borne equipment conform to its expectations. Conclusion. It is suggested that this method should be further researched and popularized.

Specialization in and within sexual offending in England and Wales.

PubMed

Howard, Philip D; Barnett, Georgia D; Mann, Ruth E

2014-06-01

Existing evidence suggests that offenders tend not to specialize in sexual offending in general but that there is some specialization in particular types of sexual offending. This study examined the sexual histories and reoffending of a large, national data set of offenders convicted of a sexual offense and managed in England and Wales by the National Offender Management Service (N = 14,804). The study found that specialization in sexual offending compared to nonsexual offending was most evident for offenders with convictions for accessing indecent images. We also found considerable evidence of specialization within sexual offending, most notably for noncontact offenders, especially again indecent images offenders. Crossover between sexual offense types was very rare for those with contact adult offenses and for noncontact offenders although those with child contact offenses sometimes crossed over to indecent images reoffending. If specialization within sexual offending exists, the use of single risk assessment instruments to predict all types of sexual recidivism may be less effective than previously assumed. A comparison of different prediction models indicated that some items presently used in one-size-fits-all risk tools to predict any sexual reoffending only effectively predict certain subtypes of sexual offending. Statistically there appear to be some potential benefits to creating specialist risk predictors for different subtypes of offending, but further work is needed to justify the implementation demands that would be caused by abandoning one-size-fits-all tools.

GPU.proton.DOCK: Genuine Protein Ultrafast proton equilibria consistent DOCKing.

PubMed

Kantardjiev, Alexander A

2011-07-01

GPU.proton.DOCK (Genuine Protein Ultrafast proton equilibria consistent DOCKing) is a state of the art service for in silico prediction of protein-protein interactions via rigorous and ultrafast docking code. It is unique in providing stringent account of electrostatic interactions self-consistency and proton equilibria mutual effects of docking partners. GPU.proton.DOCK is the first server offering such a crucial supplement to protein docking algorithms--a step toward more reliable and high accuracy docking results. The code (especially the Fast Fourier Transform bottleneck and electrostatic fields computation) is parallelized to run on a GPU supercomputer. The high performance will be of use for large-scale structural bioinformatics and systems biology projects, thus bridging physics of the interactions with analysis of molecular networks. We propose workflows for exploring in silico charge mutagenesis effects. Special emphasis is given to the interface-intuitive and user-friendly. The input is comprised of the atomic coordinate files in PDB format. The advanced user is provided with a special input section for addition of non-polypeptide charges, extra ionogenic groups with intrinsic pK(a) values or fixed ions. The output is comprised of docked complexes in PDB format as well as interactive visualization in a molecular viewer. GPU.proton.DOCK server can be accessed at http://gpudock.orgchm.bas.bg/.

Nondestructive Techniques to Evaluate the Characteristics and Development of Engineered Cartilage

PubMed Central

Mansour, Joseph M.; Lee, Zhenghong; Welter, Jean F.

2016-01-01

In this review, methods for evaluating the properties of tissue engineered (TE) cartilage are described. Many of these have been developed for evaluating properties of native and osteoarthritic articular cartilage. However, with the increasing interest in engineering cartilage, specialized methods are needed for nondestructive evaluation of tissue while it is developing and after it is implanted. Such methods are needed, in part, due to the large inter- and intra-donor variability in the performance of the cellular component of the tissue, which remains a barrier to delivering reliable TE cartilage for implantation. Using conventional destructive tests, such variability makes it near-impossible to predict the timing and outcome of the tissue engineering process at the level of a specific piece of engineered tissue and also makes it difficult to assess the impact of changing tissue engineering regimens. While it is clear that the true test of engineered cartilage is its performance after it is implanted, correlation of pre and post implantation properties determined non-destructively in vitro and/or in vivo with performance should lead to predictive methods to improve quality-control and to minimize the chances of implanting inferior tissue. PMID:26817458

Predicting dyslexia at age 11 from a risk index questionnaire at age 5.

PubMed

Helland, Turid; Plante, Elena; Hugdahl, Kenneth

2011-08-01

This study focused on predicting dyslexia in children ahead of formal literacy training. Because dyslexia is a constitutional impairment, risk factors should be seen in preschool. It was hypothesized that data gathered at age 5 using questions targeting the dyslexia endophenotype should be reliable and valid predictors of dyslexia at age 11. A questionnaire was given to caretakers of 120 5-year-old children, and a risk index score was calculated based on questions regarding health, laterality, motor skills, language, special needs education and heredity. An at-risk group (n = 25) and matched controls (n = 24) were followed until age 11, when a similar questionnaire and literacy tests were administered to the children who participated in the follow-up study (22 at risk and 20 control). Half of the at-risk children and two of the control children at age 5 were identified as having dyslexia at age 11 (8 girls and 5 boys). It is concluded that it is possible to identify children at the age of 5 who will have dyslexia at the age of 11 through a questionnaire approach. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reliable long-term continuous blood glucose monitoring for patients in critical care using microdialysis and infrared spectrometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heise, H. Michael; Damm, Uwe; Kondepati, Venkata R.

2006-02-01

For clinical research, in-vivo blood glucose monitoring is an ongoing important topic to improve glycemic control in patients with non-adequate blood glucose regulation. Critically ill patients received much interest, since the intensive insulin therapy treatment, as established for diabetics, reduces mortality significantly. Despite the existence of commercially available, mainly amperometric biosensors, continued interest is in infrared spectroscopic techniques for reagent-free glucose monitoring. For stable long-term operation, avoiding also sensor recalibration, a bed-side device coupled to a micro-dialysis probe was developed for quasi-continuous glucose monitoring. Multivariate calibration is required for glucose concentration prediction due to the complex composition of dialysates from interstitial body fluid. Measurements were carried out with different test persons, each experiment lasting for more than 8 hours. Owing to low dialysis recovery rates, glucose concentrations in the dialysates were between 0.83 and 4.44 mM. Standard errors of prediction (SEP) obtained with Partial Least Squares (PLS) calibration and different cross-validation strategies were mainly between 0.13 and 0.18 mM based on either full interval data or specially selected spectral variables.

Predicting bioconcentration of chemicals into vegetation from soil or air using the molecular connectivity index

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dowdy, D.L.; McKone, T.E.; Hsieh, D.P.H.

1995-12-31

Bioconcentration factors (BCFs) are the ratio of chemical concentration found in an exposed organism (in this case a plant) to the concentration in an air or soil exposure medium. The authors examine here the use of molecular connectivity indices (MCIs) as quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARS) for predicting BCFs for organic chemicals between plants and air or soil. The authors compare the reliability of the octanol-air partition coefficient (K{sub oa}) to the MC based prediction method for predicting plant/air partition coefficients. The authors also compare the reliability of the octanol/water partition coefficient (K{sub ow}) to the MC based prediction method formore » predicting plant/soil partition coefficients. The results here indicate that, relative to the use of K{sub ow} or K{sub oa} as predictors of BCFs the MC can substantially increase the reliability with which BCFs can be estimated. The authors find that the MC provides a relatively precise and accurate method for predicting the potential biotransfer of a chemical from environmental media into plants. In addition, the MC is much faster and more cost effective than direct measurements.« less

Covariance and decoupling of floral and vegetative traits in nine Neotropical plants: a re-evaluation of Berg's correlation-pleiades concept.

PubMed

Armbruster, W S; Di Stilio, V S; Tuxill, J D; Flores, T C; Velásquez Runk, J L

1999-01-01

Nearly forty years ago R. L. Berg proposed that plants with specialized pollination ecology evolve genetic and developmental systems that decouple floral morphology from phenotypic variation in vegetative traits. These species evolve separate floral and vegetative trait clusters, or as she termed them, "correlation pleiades." The predictions of this hypothesis have been generally supported, but only a small sample of temperate-zone herb and grass species has been tested. To further evaluate this hypothesis, especially its applicability to plants of other growth forms, we examined the patterns of phenotypic variation and covariation of floral and vegetative traits in nine species of Neotropical plants. We recognized seven specific predictions of Berg's hypothesis. Our results supported some predictions but not others. Species with specialized pollination systems usually had floral traits decoupled (weak correlation; Canna and Eichornia) or buffered (relationship with shallow proportional slope; Calathea and Canna) from variation in vegetative traits. However, the same trend was also observed in three species with unspecialized pollination systems (Echinodorus, Muntingia, and Wedelia). One species with unspecialized pollination (Croton) and one wind-pollinated species (Cyperus) showed no decoupling or buffering, as predicted. While species with specialized pollination usually showed lower coefficients of variation for floral traits than vegetative traits (as predicted), the same was also true of species with unspecialized or wind pollination (unlike our prediction). Species with specialized pollination showed less variation in floral traits than did species with unspecialized or wind pollination, as predicted. However, the same was true of the corresponding vegetative traits, which was unexpected. Also in contrast to our prediction, plants with specialized pollination systems did not exhibit tighter phenotypic integration of floral characters than did species with generalized pollination systems. We conclude that the patterns of morphological integration among floral traits and between floral and vegetative traits tend to be species specific, not easily predicted from pollination ecology, and generally more complicated than R. L. Berg envisaged.

German Beck Scale for Suicide Ideation (BSS): psychometric properties from a representative population survey.

PubMed

Kliem, Sören; Lohmann, Anna; Mößle, Thomas; Brähler, Elmar

2017-12-04

Suicidal ideation has been identified as one of the major predictors of attempted or actual suicide. Routinely screening individuals for endorsing suicidal thoughts could save lives and protect many from severe psychological consequences following the suicide of loved ones. The aim of this study was to validate the German version of the Beck Scale for Suicide Ideation (BSS) in a sample representative for the Federal Republic of Germany. All 2450 participants completed the first part of the Scale, the BSS-Screen. A risk group of n = 112 individuals (4.6%) with active or passive suicidal ideation was identified and subsequently completed the entire BSS. Satisfactory internal reliability (α = .97 for the BSS-Screen; α = .94 for the entire BSS) and excellent model fit indices for the one-dimensional factorial structure of the BSS-Screen (CFI = .998; TLI = .995; RMSEA = .045 [95%-CI: .030-.061]) were confirmed. Measurement invariance analyses supported strict invariance across gender, age, and depression status. We found correlations with related self-report measures in expected directions comparable to previous studies, indicating satisfactory construct validity. Our study involved cross sectional data, hence neither predictive validity nor retest-reliability were examined. As only the risk group of n = 112 individuals completed the entire measure, confirmatory factor analyses could not be conducted for the full BSS. The German translation of the BSS is a reliable and valid instrument for assessing suicidal ideation in the general population. Using it as a screening device in general and specialized medical care could substantially advance suicide prevention.

Total Longitudinal Moment Calculation and Reliability Analysis of Yacht Structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhi, Wenzheng; Lin, Shaofen

In order to check the reliability of the yacht in FRP (Fiber Reinforce Plastic) materials, in this paper, the vertical force and the calculation method of the overall longitudinal bending moment on yacht was analyzed. Specially, this paper focuses on the impact of speed on the still water bending moment on yacht. Then considering the mechanical properties of the cap type stiffeners in composite materials, the ultimate bearing capacity of the yacht has been worked out, finally the reliability of the yacht was calculated with using response surface methodology. The result can be used in yacht design and yacht driving.

Romania as a NATO Member: A Reliable Ally to the US in Afghanistan

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-11

advent of the “long war” against terrorism . Special attention is devoted to the varying impact of structures, sentiments, threats, interests, and...to Euro-Atlantic security arrangements, especially after the advent of the “long war” against terrorism . Special attention is devoted to the varying...conventional threats, in fighting international terrorism . The decision today recognizes the efforts mounted by the Romanian Army to perfect itself and

ERP Reliability Analysis (ERA) Toolbox: An open-source toolbox for analyzing the reliability of event-related brain potentials.

PubMed

Clayson, Peter E; Miller, Gregory A

2017-01-01

Generalizability theory (G theory) provides a flexible, multifaceted approach to estimating score reliability. G theory's approach to estimating score reliability has important advantages over classical test theory that are relevant for research using event-related brain potentials (ERPs). For example, G theory does not require parallel forms (i.e., equal means, variances, and covariances), can handle unbalanced designs, and provides a single reliability estimate for designs with multiple sources of error. This monograph provides a detailed description of the conceptual framework of G theory using examples relevant to ERP researchers, presents the algorithms needed to estimate ERP score reliability, and provides a detailed walkthrough of newly-developed software, the ERP Reliability Analysis (ERA) Toolbox, that calculates score reliability using G theory. The ERA Toolbox is open-source, Matlab software that uses G theory to estimate the contribution of the number of trials retained for averaging, group, and/or event types on ERP score reliability. The toolbox facilitates the rigorous evaluation of psychometric properties of ERP scores recommended elsewhere in this special issue. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards early software reliability prediction for computer forensic tools (case study).

PubMed

Abu Talib, Manar

2016-01-01

Versatility, flexibility and robustness are essential requirements for software forensic tools. Researchers and practitioners need to put more effort into assessing this type of tool. A Markov model is a robust means for analyzing and anticipating the functioning of an advanced component based system. It is used, for instance, to analyze the reliability of the state machines of real time reactive systems. This research extends the architecture-based software reliability prediction model for computer forensic tools, which is based on Markov chains and COSMIC-FFP. Basically, every part of the computer forensic tool is linked to a discrete time Markov chain. If this can be done, then a probabilistic analysis by Markov chains can be performed to analyze the reliability of the components and of the whole tool. The purposes of the proposed reliability assessment method are to evaluate the tool's reliability in the early phases of its development, to improve the reliability assessment process for large computer forensic tools over time, and to compare alternative tool designs. The reliability analysis can assist designers in choosing the most reliable topology for the components, which can maximize the reliability of the tool and meet the expected reliability level specified by the end-user. The approach of assessing component-based tool reliability in the COSMIC-FFP context is illustrated with the Forensic Toolkit Imager case study.

Quantifying uncertainties in streamflow predictions through signature based inference of hydrological model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenicia, Fabrizio; Reichert, Peter; Kavetski, Dmitri; Albert, Calro

2016-04-01

The calibration of hydrological models based on signatures (e.g. Flow Duration Curves - FDCs) is often advocated as an alternative to model calibration based on the full time series of system responses (e.g. hydrographs). Signature based calibration is motivated by various arguments. From a conceptual perspective, calibration on signatures is a way to filter out errors that are difficult to represent when calibrating on the full time series. Such errors may for example occur when observed and simulated hydrographs are shifted, either on the "time" axis (i.e. left or right), or on the "streamflow" axis (i.e. above or below). These shifts may be due to errors in the precipitation input (time or amount), and if not properly accounted in the likelihood function, may cause biased parameter estimates (e.g. estimated model parameters that do not reproduce the recession characteristics of a hydrograph). From a practical perspective, signature based calibration is seen as a possible solution for making predictions in ungauged basins. Where streamflow data are not available, it may in fact be possible to reliably estimate streamflow signatures. Previous research has for example shown how FDCs can be reliably estimated at ungauged locations based on climatic and physiographic influence factors. Typically, the goal of signature based calibration is not the prediction of the signatures themselves, but the prediction of the system responses. Ideally, the prediction of system responses should be accompanied by a reliable quantification of the associated uncertainties. Previous approaches for signature based calibration, however, do not allow reliable estimates of streamflow predictive distributions. Here, we illustrate how the Bayesian approach can be employed to obtain reliable streamflow predictive distributions based on signatures. A case study is presented, where a hydrological model is calibrated on FDCs and additional signatures. We propose an approach where the likelihood function for the signatures is derived from the likelihood for streamflow (rather than using an "ad-hoc" likelihood for the signatures as done in previous approaches). This likelihood is not easily tractable analytically and we therefore cannot apply "simple" MCMC methods. This numerical problem is solved using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Our result indicate that the proposed approach is suitable for producing reliable streamflow predictive distributions based on calibration to signature data. Moreover, our results provide indications on which signatures are more appropriate to represent the information content of the hydrograph.

Reliable probabilities through statistical post-processing of ensemble predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane

2013-04-01

We develop post-processing or calibration approaches based on linear regression that make ensemble forecasts more reliable. We enforce climatological reliability in the sense that the total variability of the prediction is equal to the variability of the observations. Second, we impose ensemble reliability such that the spread around the ensemble mean of the observation coincides with the one of the ensemble members. In general the attractors of the model and reality are inhomogeneous. Therefore ensemble spread displays a variability not taken into account in standard post-processing methods. We overcome this by weighting the ensemble by a variable error. The approaches are tested in the context of the Lorenz 96 model (Lorenz 1996). The forecasts become more reliable at short lead times as reflected by a flatter rank histogram. Our best method turns out to be superior to well-established methods like EVMOS (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2011) and Nonhomogeneous Gaussian Regression (Gneiting et al., 2005). References [1] Gneiting, T., Raftery, A. E., Westveld, A., Goldman, T., 2005: Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation. Mon. Weather Rev. 133, 1098-1118. [2] Lorenz, E. N., 1996: Predictability - a problem partly solved. Proceedings, Seminar on Predictability ECMWF. 1, 1-18. [3] Van Schaeybroeck, B., and S. Vannitsem, 2011: Post-processing through linear regression, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 18, 147.

Expanding Reliability Generalization Methods with KR-21 Estimates: An RG Study of the Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lane, Ginny G.; White, Amy E.; Henson, Robin K.

2002-01-01

Conducted a reliability generalizability study on the Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory (CSEI; S. Coopersmith, 1967) to examine the variability of reliability estimates across studies and to identify study characteristics that may predict this variability. Results show that reliability for CSEI scores can vary considerably, especially at the…

A Reliability Generalization Study of the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beretvas, S, Natasha; Meyers, Jason L.; Leite, Walter L.

2002-01-01

Conducted a reliability generalization study of the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale (D. Crowne and D. Marlowe, 1960). Analysis of 93 studies show that the predicted score reliability for male adolescents was 0.53, and reliability for men's responses was lower than for women's. Discusses the need for further analysis of the scale. (SLD)

Coupling of Bayesian Networks with GIS for wildfire risk assessment on natural and agricultural areas of the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherb, Anke; Papakosta, Panagiota; Straub, Daniel

2014-05-01

Wildfires cause severe damages to ecosystems, socio-economic assets, and human lives in the Mediterranean. To facilitate coping with wildfire risks, an understanding of the factors influencing wildfire occurrence and behavior (e.g. human activity, weather conditions, topography, fuel loads) and their interaction is of importance, as is the implementation of this knowledge in improved wildfire hazard and risk prediction systems. In this project, a probabilistic wildfire risk prediction model is developed, with integrated fire occurrence and fire propagation probability and potential impact prediction on natural and cultivated areas. Bayesian Networks (BNs) are used to facilitate the probabilistic modeling. The final BN model is a spatial-temporal prediction system at the meso scale (1 km2 spatial and 1 day temporal resolution). The modeled consequences account for potential restoration costs and production losses referred to forests, agriculture, and (semi-) natural areas. BNs and a geographic information system (GIS) are coupled within this project to support a semi-automated BN model parameter learning and the spatial-temporal risk prediction. The coupling also enables the visualization of prediction results by means of daily maps. The BN parameters are learnt for Cyprus with data from 2006-2009. Data from 2010 is used as validation data set. A special focus is put on the performance evaluation of the BN for fire occurrence, which is modeled as binary classifier and thus, could be validated by means of Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves. With the final best models, AUC values of more than 70% for validation could be achieved, which indicates potential for reliable prediction performance via BN. Maps of selected days in 2010 are shown to illustrate final prediction results. The resulting system can be easily expanded to predict additional expected damages in the mesoscale (e.g. building and infrastructure damages). The system can support planning of preventive measures (e.g. state resources allocation for wildfire prevention and preparedness) and assist recuperation plans of damaged areas.

Development of techniques for measuring pilot workload

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spyker, D. A.; Stackhouse, S. P.; Khalafalla, A. S.; Mclane, R. C.

1971-01-01

An objective method of assessing information workload based on physiological measurements was developed. Information workload, or reserve capacity, was measured using a visual discrimination secondary task and subjective rating of task difficulty. The primary task was two axis (pitch and roll) tracking, and the independent variables in this study were aircraft pitch dynamics and wind gust disturbances. The study was structured to provide: (1) a sensitive, nonloading measure of reserve capacity, and (2) an unencumbering reliable measurement of the psychophysiological state. From these, a measured workload index (MWI) and physiological workload index (PWI) were extracted. An important measure of the success of this study was the degree to which the MWI and PWI agreed across the 243 randomly-presented, four-minute trials (9 subjects X 9 tasks X 3 replications). The electrophysiological data collected included vectorcardiogaram, respiration, electromyogram, skin impedance, and electroencephalogram. Special computer programs were created for the analysis of each physiological variable. The digital data base then consisted of 82 physiological features for each of the 243 trials. A prediction of workload based on physiological observations was formulated as a simultaneous least-squares prediction problem. A best subset of 10 features was chosen to predict the three measures of reserve capacity. The cannonical correlation coefficient was .754 with a chi squared value of 91.3 which allows rejection of the null hypothesis with p of .995.

Maximizing the reliability of genomic selection by optimizing the calibration set of reference individuals: comparison of methods in two diverse groups of maize inbreds (Zea mays L.).

PubMed

Rincent, R; Laloë, D; Nicolas, S; Altmann, T; Brunel, D; Revilla, P; Rodríguez, V M; Moreno-Gonzalez, J; Melchinger, A; Bauer, E; Schoen, C-C; Meyer, N; Giauffret, C; Bauland, C; Jamin, P; Laborde, J; Monod, H; Flament, P; Charcosset, A; Moreau, L

2012-10-01

Genomic selection refers to the use of genotypic information for predicting breeding values of selection candidates. A prediction formula is calibrated with the genotypes and phenotypes of reference individuals constituting the calibration set. The size and the composition of this set are essential parameters affecting the prediction reliabilities. The objective of this study was to maximize reliabilities by optimizing the calibration set. Different criteria based on the diversity or on the prediction error variance (PEV) derived from the realized additive relationship matrix-best linear unbiased predictions model (RA-BLUP) were used to select the reference individuals. For the latter, we considered the mean of the PEV of the contrasts between each selection candidate and the mean of the population (PEVmean) and the mean of the expected reliabilities of the same contrasts (CDmean). These criteria were tested with phenotypic data collected on two diversity panels of maize (Zea mays L.) genotyped with a 50k SNPs array. In the two panels, samples chosen based on CDmean gave higher reliabilities than random samples for various calibration set sizes. CDmean also appeared superior to PEVmean, which can be explained by the fact that it takes into account the reduction of variance due to the relatedness between individuals. Selected samples were close to optimality for a wide range of trait heritabilities, which suggests that the strategy presented here can efficiently sample subsets in panels of inbred lines. A script to optimize reference samples based on CDmean is available on request.

Reliability Practice at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pruessner, Paula S.; Li, Ming

2008-01-01

This paper describes in brief the Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) Programs performed directly by the reliability branch at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The mission assurance requirements flow down is explained. GSFC practices for PRA, reliability prediction/fault tree analysis/reliability block diagram, FMEA, part stress and derating analysis, worst case analysis, trend analysis, limit life items are presented. Lessons learned are summarized and recommendations on improvement are identified.

The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire: psychometric properties of the parent and teacher version in children aged 4-7.

PubMed

Stone, Lisanne L; Janssens, Jan M A M; Vermulst, Ad A; Van Der Maten, Marloes; Engels, Rutger C M E; Otten, Roy

2015-01-01

The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire is one of the most employed screening instruments. Although there is a large research body investigating its psychometric properties, reliability and validity are not yet fully tested using modern techniques. Therefore, we investigate reliability, construct validity, measurement invariance, and predictive validity of the parent and teacher version in children aged 4-7. Besides, we intend to replicate previous studies by investigating test-retest reliability and criterion validity. In a Dutch community sample 2,238 teachers and 1,513 parents filled out questionnaires regarding problem behaviors and parenting, while 1,831 children reported on sociometric measures at T1. These children were followed-up during three consecutive years. Reliability was examined using Cronbach's alpha and McDonald's omega, construct validity was examined by Confirmatory Factor Analysis, and predictive validity was examined by calculating developmental profiles and linking these to measures of inadequate parenting, parenting stress and social preference. Further, mean scores and percentiles were examined in order to establish norms. Omega was consistently higher than alpha regarding reliability. The original five-factor structure was replicated, and measurement invariance was established on a configural level. Further, higher SDQ scores were associated with future indices of higher inadequate parenting, higher parenting stress and lower social preference. Finally, previous results on test-retest reliability and criterion validity were replicated. This study is the first to show SDQ scores are predictively valid, attesting to the feasibility of the SDQ as a screening instrument. Future research into predictive validity of the SDQ is warranted.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pennock, Kenneth; Makarov, Yuri V.; Rajagopal, Sankaran

The need for proactive closed-loop integration of uncertainty information into system operations and probability-based controls is widely recognized, but rarely implemented in system operations. Proactive integration for this project means that the information concerning expected uncertainty ranges for net load and balancing requirements, including required balancing capacity, ramping and ramp duration characteristics, will be fed back into the generation commitment and dispatch algorithms to modify their performance so that potential shortages of these characteristics can be prevented. This basic, yet important, premise is the motivating factor for this project. The achieved project goal is to demonstrate the benefit of suchmore » a system. The project quantifies future uncertainties, predicts additional system balancing needs including the prediction intervals for capacity and ramping requirements of future dispatch intervals, evaluates the impacts of uncertainties on transmission including the risk of overloads and voltage problems, and explores opportunities for intra-hour generation adjustments helping to provide more flexibility for system operators. The resulting benefits culminate in more reliable grid operation in the face of increased system uncertainty and variability caused by solar power. The project identifies that solar power does not require special separate penetration level restrictions or penalization for its intermittency. Ultimately, the collective consideration of all sources of intermittency distributed over a wide area unified with the comprehensive evaluation of various elements of balancing process, i.e. capacity, ramping, and energy requirements, help system operators more robustly and effectively balance generation against load and interchange. This project showed that doing so can facilitate more solar and other renewable resources on the grid without compromising reliability and control performance. Efforts during the project included developing and integrating advanced probabilistic solar forecasts, including distributed PV forecasts, into closed –loop decision making processes. Additionally, new uncertainty quantifications methods and tools for the direct integration of uncertainty and variability information into grid operations at the transmission and distribution levels were developed and tested. During Phase 1, project work focused heavily on the design, development and demonstration of a set of processes and tools that could reliably and efficiently incorporate solar power into California’s grid operations. In Phase 2, connectivity between the ramping analysis tools and market applications software were completed, multiple dispatch scenarios demonstrated a successful reduction of overall uncertainty and an analysis to quantify increases in system operator reliability, and the transmission and distribution system uncertainty prediction tool was introduced to system operation engineers in a live webinar. The project met its goals, the experiments prove the advancements to methods and tools, when working together, are beneficial to not only the California Independent System Operator, but the benefits are transferable to other system operators in the United States.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, P.Y.; Wassom, J.S.

Scientific and technological developments bring unprecedented stress to our environment. Society has to predict the results of potential health risks from technologically based actions that may have serious, far-reaching consequences. The potential for error in making such predictions or assessment is great and multiplies with the increasing size and complexity of the problem being studied. Because of this, the availability and use of reliable data is the key to any successful forecasting effort. Scientific research and development generate new data and information. Much of the scientific data being produced daily is stored in computers for subsequent analysis. This situation providesmore » both an invaluable resource and an enormous challenge. With large amounts of government funds being devoted to health and environmental research programs and with maintenance of our living environment at stake, we must make maximum use of the resulting data to forecast and avert catastrophic effects. Along with the readily available. The most efficient means of obtaining the data necessary for assessing the health effects of chemicals is to utilize applications include the toxicology databases and information files developed at ORNL. To make most efficient use of the data/information that has already been prepared, attention and resources should be directed toward projects that meticulously evaluate the available data/information and create specialized peer-reviewed value-added databases. Such projects include the National Library of Medicine`s Hazardous Substances Data Bank, and the U.S. Air Force Installation Restoration Toxicology Guide. These and similar value-added toxicology databases were developed at ORNL and are being maintained and updated. These databases and supporting information files, as well as some data evaluation techniques are discussed in this paper with special focus on how they are used to assess potential health effects of environmental agents. 19 refs., 5 tabs.« less

Effect of Individual Component Life Distribution on Engine Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.; Soditus, Sherry M.

2003-01-01

The effect of individual engine component life distributions on engine life prediction was determined. A Weibull-based life and reliability analysis of the NASA Energy Efficient Engine was conducted. The engine s life at a 95 and 99.9 percent probability of survival was determined based upon the engine manufacturer s original life calculations and assumed values of each of the component s cumulative life distributions as represented by a Weibull slope. The lives of the high-pressure turbine (HPT) disks and blades were also evaluated individually and as a system in a similar manner. Knowing the statistical cumulative distribution of each engine component with reasonable engineering certainty is a condition precedent to predicting the life and reliability of an entire engine. The life of a system at a given reliability will be less than the lowest-lived component in the system at the same reliability (probability of survival). Where Weibull slopes of all the engine components are equal, the Weibull slope had a minimal effect on engine L(sub 0.1) life prediction. However, at a probability of survival of 95 percent (L(sub 5) life), life decreased with increasing Weibull slope.

Spectral BRDF-based determination of proper measurement geometries to characterize color shift of special effect coatings.

PubMed

Ferrero, Alejandro; Rabal, Ana; Campos, Joaquín; Martínez-Verdú, Francisco; Chorro, Elísabet; Perales, Esther; Pons, Alicia; Hernanz, María Luisa

2013-02-01

A reduced set of measurement geometries allows the spectral reflectance of special effect coatings to be predicted for any other geometry. A physical model based on flake-related parameters has been used to determine nonredundant measurement geometries for the complete description of the spectral bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF). The analysis of experimental spectral BRDF was carried out by means of principal component analysis. From this analysis, a set of nine measurement geometries was proposed to characterize special effect coatings. It was shown that, for two different special effect coatings, these geometries provide a good prediction of their complete color shift.

What do we gain with Probabilistic Flood Loss Models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeter, K.; Kreibich, H.; Vogel, K.; Merz, B.; Lüdtke, S.

2015-12-01

The reliability of flood loss models is a prerequisite for their practical usefulness. Oftentimes, traditional uni-variate damage models as for instance depth-damage curves fail to reproduce the variability of observed flood damage. Innovative multi-variate probabilistic modelling approaches are promising to capture and quantify the uncertainty involved and thus to improve the basis for decision making. In this study we compare the predictive capability of two probabilistic modelling approaches, namely Bagging Decision Trees and Bayesian Networks and traditional stage damage functions which are cast in a probabilistic framework. For model evaluation we use empirical damage data which are available from computer aided telephone interviews that were respectively compiled after the floods in 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2013 in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. We carry out a split sample test by sub-setting the damage records. One sub-set is used to derive the models and the remaining records are used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. Further we stratify the sample according to catchments which allows studying model performance in a spatial transfer context. Flood damage estimation is carried out on the scale of the individual buildings in terms of relative damage. The predictive performance of the models is assessed in terms of systematic deviations (mean bias), precision (mean absolute error) as well as in terms of reliability which is represented by the proportion of the number of observations that fall within the 95-quantile and 5-quantile predictive interval. The reliability of the probabilistic predictions within validation runs decreases only slightly and achieves a very good coverage of observations within the predictive interval. Probabilistic models provide quantitative information about prediction uncertainty which is crucial to assess the reliability of model predictions and improves the usefulness of model results.

28 CFR 541.62 - Referral for placement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... INMATE DISCIPLINE AND SPECIAL HOUSING UNITS Procedures for Handling of HIV Positive Inmates Who Pose... housing status when the inmate has been confirmed as testing HIV positive and when there is reliable...

28 CFR 541.62 - Referral for placement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... INMATE DISCIPLINE AND SPECIAL HOUSING UNITS Procedures for Handling of HIV Positive Inmates Who Pose... housing status when the inmate has been confirmed as testing HIV positive and when there is reliable...

28 CFR 541.62 - Referral for placement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... INMATE DISCIPLINE AND SPECIAL HOUSING UNITS Procedures for Handling of HIV Positive Inmates Who Pose... housing status when the inmate has been confirmed as testing HIV positive and when there is reliable...

28 CFR 541.62 - Referral for placement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... INMATE DISCIPLINE AND SPECIAL HOUSING UNITS Procedures for Handling of HIV Positive Inmates Who Pose... housing status when the inmate has been confirmed as testing HIV positive and when there is reliable...

28 CFR 541.62 - Referral for placement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... INMATE DISCIPLINE AND SPECIAL HOUSING UNITS Procedures for Handling of HIV Positive Inmates Who Pose... housing status when the inmate has been confirmed as testing HIV positive and when there is reliable...

Methods to Improve Reliability of Video Recorded Behavioral Data

PubMed Central

Haidet, Kim Kopenhaver; Tate, Judith; Divirgilio-Thomas, Dana; Kolanowski, Ann; Happ, Mary Beth

2009-01-01

Behavioral observation is a fundamental component of nursing practice and a primary source of clinical research data. The use of video technology in behavioral research offers important advantages to nurse scientists in assessing complex behaviors and relationships between behaviors. The appeal of using this method should be balanced, however, by an informed approach to reliability issues. In this paper, we focus on factors that influence reliability, such as the use of sensitizing sessions to minimize participant reactivity and the importance of training protocols for video coders. In addition, we discuss data quality, the selection and use of observational tools, calculating reliability coefficients, and coding considerations for special populations based on our collective experiences across three different populations and settings. PMID:19434651

Rollover risk prediction of heavy vehicles by reliability index and empirical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sellami, Yamine; Imine, Hocine; Boubezoul, Abderrahmane; Cadiou, Jean-Charles

2018-03-01

This paper focuses on a combination of a reliability-based approach and an empirical modelling approach for rollover risk assessment of heavy vehicles. A reliability-based warning system is developed to alert the driver to a potential rollover before entering into a bend. The idea behind the proposed methodology is to estimate the rollover risk by the probability that the vehicle load transfer ratio (LTR) exceeds a critical threshold. Accordingly, a so-called reliability index may be used as a measure to assess the vehicle safe functioning. In the reliability method, computing the maximum of LTR requires to predict the vehicle dynamics over the bend which can be in some cases an intractable problem or time-consuming. With the aim of improving the reliability computation time, an empirical model is developed to substitute the vehicle dynamics and rollover models. This is done by using the SVM (Support Vector Machines) algorithm. The preliminary obtained results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Software reliability report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Larry

1991-01-01

There are many software reliability models which try to predict future performance of software based on data generated by the debugging process. Unfortunately, the models appear to be unable to account for the random nature of the data. If the same code is debugged multiple times and one of the models is used to make predictions, intolerable variance is observed in the resulting reliability predictions. It is believed that data replication can remove this variance in lab type situations and that it is less than scientific to talk about validating a software reliability model without considering replication. It is also believed that data replication may prove to be cost effective in the real world, thus the research centered on verification of the need for replication and on methodologies for generating replicated data in a cost effective manner. The context of the debugging graph was pursued by simulation and experimentation. Simulation was done for the Basic model and the Log-Poisson model. Reasonable values of the parameters were assigned and used to generate simulated data which is then processed by the models in order to determine limitations on their accuracy. These experiments exploit the existing software and program specimens which are in AIR-LAB to measure the performance of reliability models.

Software reliability studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Larry W.

1989-01-01

The longterm goal of this research is to identify or create a model for use in analyzing the reliability of flight control software. The immediate tasks addressed are the creation of data useful to the study of software reliability and production of results pertinent to software reliability through the analysis of existing reliability models and data. The completed data creation portion of this research consists of a Generic Checkout System (GCS) design document created in cooperation with NASA and Research Triangle Institute (RTI) experimenters. This will lead to design and code reviews with the resulting product being one of the versions used in the Terminal Descent Experiment being conducted by the Systems Validations Methods Branch (SVMB) of NASA/Langley. An appended paper details an investigation of the Jelinski-Moranda and Geometric models for software reliability. The models were given data from a process that they have correctly simulated and asked to make predictions about the reliability of that process. It was found that either model will usually fail to make good predictions. These problems were attributed to randomness in the data and replication of data was recommended.

The reliability and validity of ultrasound to quantify muscles in older adults: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Scafoglieri, Aldo; Jager‐Wittenaar, Harriët; Hobbelen, Johannes S.M.; van der Schans, Cees P.

2017-01-01

Abstract This review evaluates the reliability and validity of ultrasound to quantify muscles in older adults. The databases PubMed, Cochrane, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature were systematically searched for studies. In 17 studies, the reliability (n = 13) and validity (n = 8) of ultrasound to quantify muscles in community‐dwelling older adults (≥60 years) or a clinical population were evaluated. Four out of 13 reliability studies investigated both intra‐rater and inter‐rater reliability. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) scores for reliability ranged from −0.26 to 1.00. The highest ICC scores were found for the vastus lateralis, rectus femoris, upper arm anterior, and the trunk (ICC = 0.72 to 1.000). All included validity studies found ICC scores ranging from 0.92 to 0.999. Two studies describing the validity of ultrasound to predict lean body mass showed good validity as compared with dual‐energy X‐ray absorptiometry (r 2 = 0.92 to 0.96). This systematic review shows that ultrasound is a reliable and valid tool for the assessment of muscle size in older adults. More high‐quality research is required to confirm these findings in both clinical and healthy populations. Furthermore, ultrasound assessment of small muscles needs further evaluation. Ultrasound to predict lean body mass is feasible; however, future research is required to validate prediction equations in older adults with varying function and health. PMID:28703496

Reliability Driven Space Logistics Demand Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knezevic, J.

1995-01-01

Accurate selection of the quantity of logistic support resources has a strong influence on mission success, system availability and the cost of ownership. At the same time the accurate prediction of these resources depends on the accurate prediction of the reliability measures of the items involved. This paper presents a method for the advanced and accurate calculation of the reliability measures of complex space systems which are the basis for the determination of the demands for logistics resources needed during the operational life or mission of space systems. The applicability of the method presented is demonstrated through several examples.

Reliable prediction intervals with regression neural networks.

PubMed

Papadopoulos, Harris; Haralambous, Haris

2011-10-01

This paper proposes an extension to conventional regression neural networks (NNs) for replacing the point predictions they produce with prediction intervals that satisfy a required level of confidence. Our approach follows a novel machine learning framework, called Conformal Prediction (CP), for assigning reliable confidence measures to predictions without assuming anything more than that the data are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). We evaluate the proposed method on four benchmark datasets and on the problem of predicting Total Electron Content (TEC), which is an important parameter in trans-ionospheric links; for the latter we use a dataset of more than 60000 TEC measurements collected over a period of 11 years. Our experimental results show that the prediction intervals produced by our method are both well calibrated and tight enough to be useful in practice. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of reliability of predictions and model applicability domain evaluation in the analysis of acute toxicity (LD50).

PubMed

Sazonovas, A; Japertas, P; Didziapetris, R

2010-01-01

This study presents a new type of acute toxicity (LD(50)) prediction that enables automated assessment of the reliability of predictions (which is synonymous with the assessment of the Model Applicability Domain as defined by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Analysis involved nearly 75,000 compounds from six animal systems (acute rat toxicity after oral and intraperitoneal administration; acute mouse toxicity after oral, intraperitoneal, intravenous, and subcutaneous administration). Fragmental Partial Least Squares (PLS) with 100 bootstraps yielded baseline predictions that were automatically corrected for non-linear effects in local chemical spaces--a combination called Global, Adjusted Locally According to Similarity (GALAS) modelling methodology. Each prediction obtained in this manner is provided with a reliability index value that depends on both compound's similarity to the training set (that accounts for similar trends in LD(50) variations within multiple bootstraps) and consistency of experimental results with regard to the baseline model in the local chemical environment. The actual performance of the Reliability Index (RI) was proven by its good (and uniform) correlations with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) in all validation sets, thus providing quantitative assessment of the Model Applicability Domain. The obtained models can be used for compound screening in the early stages of drug development and prioritization for experimental in vitro testing or later in vivo animal acute toxicity studies.

Calculations of reliability predictions for the Apollo spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amstadter, B. L.

1966-01-01

A new method of reliability prediction for complex systems is defined. Calculation of both upper and lower bounds are involved, and a procedure for combining the two to yield an approximately true prediction value is presented. Both mission success and crew safety predictions can be calculated, and success probabilities can be obtained for individual mission phases or subsystems. Primary consideration is given to evaluating cases involving zero or one failure per subsystem, and the results of these evaluations are then used for analyzing multiple failure cases. Extensive development is provided for the overall mission success and crew safety equations for both the upper and lower bounds.

Symposium Proceedings: Productivity Enhancement: Personnel Performance Assessment in Navy Systems, held October 12-14, 1977,

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-01-01

principles apply; however, special attention has to be given early in ana- ivsis to the number and kinds of discriminations required of the human observer...demands, to store, or to output desired information. Typically, these are not insurmountable problems, but they have to receive their due attention ... attention to calibration, data identification, noise, drift, and measureuent start/stop logic. Manual systems require special attention to the reliability of

Reliability and Validity of the Load-Velocity Relationship to Predict the 1RM Back Squat.

PubMed

Banyard, Harry G; Nosaka, Kazunori; Haff, G Gregory

2017-07-01

Banyard, HG, Nosaka, K, and Haff, GG. Reliability and validity of the load-velocity relationship to predict the 1RM back squat. J Strength Cond Res 31(7): 1897-1904, 2017-This study investigated the reliability and validity of the load-velocity relationship to predict the free-weight back squat one repetition maximum (1RM). Seventeen strength-trained males performed three 1RM assessments on 3 separate days. All repetitions were performed to full depth with maximal concentric effort. Predicted 1RMs were calculated by entering the mean concentric velocity of the 1RM (V1RM) into an individualized linear regression equation, which was derived from the load-velocity relationship of 3 (20, 40, 60% of 1RM), 4 (20, 40, 60, 80% of 1RM), or 5 (20, 40, 60, 80, 90% of 1RM) incremental warm-up sets. The actual 1RM (140.3 ± 27.2 kg) was very stable between 3 trials (ICC = 0.99; SEM = 2.9 kg; CV = 2.1%; ES = 0.11). Predicted 1RM from 5 warm-up sets up to and including 90% of 1RM was the most reliable (ICC = 0.92; SEM = 8.6 kg; CV = 5.7%; ES = -0.02) and valid (r = 0.93; SEE = 10.6 kg; CV = 7.4%; ES = 0.71) of the predicted 1RM methods. However, all predicted 1RMs were significantly different (p ≤ 0.05; ES = 0.71-1.04) from the actual 1RM. Individual variation for the actual 1RM was small between trials ranging from -5.6 to 4.8% compared with the most accurate predictive method up to 90% of 1RM, which was more variable (-5.5 to 27.8%). Importantly, the V1RM (0.24 ± 0.06 m·s) was unreliable between trials (ICC = 0.42; SEM = 0.05 m·s; CV = 22.5%; ES = 0.14). The load-velocity relationship for the full depth free-weight back squat showed moderate reliability and validity but could not accurately predict 1RM, which was stable between trials. Thus, the load-velocity relationship 1RM prediction method used in this study cannot accurately modify sessional training loads because of large V1RM variability.

A Note on Some Characteristics and Correlates of the Meier Art Test of Aesthetic Perception.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stallings, William M.; Anderson, Frances E.

The reliability and the predictive and concurrent validity of the MATAP were investigated with the implicit goal of improving the prediction of course grades in the College of Fine and Applied Arts. It was found that reliability and validity coefficients were low, and it was suggested that the scoring system was a source of error variance. (MS)

A Compatible Hardware/Software Reliability Prediction Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-07-22

machines. In particular, he was interested in the following problem: assu me that one has a collection of connected elements computing and transmitting...software reliability prediction model is desirable, the findings about the Weibull distribution are intriguing. After collecting failure data from several...capacitor, some of the added charge carriers are collected by the capacitor. If the added charge is sufficiently large, the information stored is changed

Cost prediction model for various payloads and instruments for the Space Shuttle Orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, F. E.

1984-01-01

The following cost parameters of the space shuttle were undertaken: (1) to develop a cost prediction model for various payload classes of instruments and experiments for the Space Shuttle Orbiter; and (2) to show the implications of various payload classes on the cost of: reliability analysis, quality assurance, environmental design requirements, documentation, parts selection, and other reliability enhancing activities.

Preservice music teachers' predictions, perceptions, and assessment of students with special needs: the need for training in student assessment.

PubMed

VanWeelden, Kimberly; Whipple, Jennifer

2007-01-01

The purpose of the current study was to examine preservice teachers' predictions and perceptions of students with special needs' levels of mastery of specific music education concepts and actual grades achieved by these students using alternative assessments and testing accommodations within two subpopulations: students with emotional and/or behavior disorders (EDBD) and students with acute cognitive delays (ACD). The preservice teachers predicted students within the EDBD class would achieve a significantly higher level of mastery of the music concepts than students within the ACD classroom. After the field experience, however, the preservice teachers' perceptions of all students' levels of mastery increased from prediction scores overall. Additionally, preservice teachers were able to execute testing accommodations and implement successful alternative assessments which gave empirical data on the students' levels of mastery of the music education concepts within the curriculum. Implications for music therapists, as consultants in special education, are discussed.

A new lifetime estimation model for a quicker LED reliability prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamon, B. H.; Mendizabal, L.; Feuillet, G.; Gasse, A.; Bataillou, B.

2014-09-01

LED reliability and lifetime prediction is a key point for Solid State Lighting adoption. For this purpose, one hundred and fifty LEDs have been aged for a reliability analysis. LEDs have been grouped following nine current-temperature stress conditions. Stress driving current was fixed between 350mA and 1A and ambient temperature between 85C and 120°C. Using integrating sphere and I(V) measurements, a cross study of the evolution of electrical and optical characteristics has been done. Results show two main failure mechanisms regarding lumen maintenance. The first one is the typically observed lumen depreciation and the second one is a much more quicker depreciation related to an increase of the leakage and non radiative currents. Models of the typical lumen depreciation and leakage resistance depreciation have been made using electrical and optical measurements during the aging tests. The combination of those models allows a new method toward a quicker LED lifetime prediction. These two models have been used for lifetime predictions for LEDs.

Genomic predictions can accelerate selection for resistance against Piscirickettsia salmonis in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar).

PubMed

Bangera, Rama; Correa, Katharina; Lhorente, Jean P; Figueroa, René; Yáñez, José M

2017-01-31

Salmon Rickettsial Syndrome (SRS) caused by Piscirickettsia salmonis is a major disease affecting the Chilean salmon industry. Genomic selection (GS) is a method wherein genome-wide markers and phenotype information of full-sibs are used to predict genomic EBV (GEBV) of selection candidates and is expected to have increased accuracy and response to selection over traditional pedigree based Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (PBLUP). Widely used GS methods such as genomic BLUP (GBLUP), SNPBLUP, Bayes C and Bayesian Lasso may perform differently with respect to accuracy of GEBV prediction. Our aim was to compare the accuracy, in terms of reliability of genome-enabled prediction, from different GS methods with PBLUP for resistance to SRS in an Atlantic salmon breeding program. Number of days to death (DAYS), binary survival status (STATUS) phenotypes, and 50 K SNP array genotypes were obtained from 2601 smolts challenged with P. salmonis. The reliability of different GS methods at different SNP densities with and without pedigree were compared to PBLUP using a five-fold cross validation scheme. Heritability estimated from GS methods was significantly higher than PBLUP. Pearson's correlation between predicted GEBV from PBLUP and GS models ranged from 0.79 to 0.91 and 0.79-0.95 for DAYS and STATUS, respectively. The relative increase in reliability from different GS methods for DAYS and STATUS with 50 K SNP ranged from 8 to 25% and 27-30%, respectively. All GS methods outperformed PBLUP at all marker densities. DAYS and STATUS showed superior reliability over PBLUP even at the lowest marker density of 3 K and 500 SNP, respectively. 20 K SNP showed close to maximal reliability for both traits with little improvement using higher densities. These results indicate that genomic predictions can accelerate genetic progress for SRS resistance in Atlantic salmon and implementation of this approach will contribute to the control of SRS in Chile. We recommend GBLUP for routine GS evaluation because this method is computationally faster and the results are very similar with other GS methods. The use of lower density SNP or the combination of low density SNP and an imputation strategy may help to reduce genotyping costs without compromising gain in reliability.

A New Method for the Evaluation and Prediction of Base Stealing Performance.

PubMed

Bricker, Joshua C; Bailey, Christopher A; Driggers, Austin R; McInnis, Timothy C; Alami, Arya

2016-11-01

Bricker, JC, Bailey, CA, Driggers, AR, McInnis, TC, and Alami, A. A new method for the evaluation and prediction of base stealing performance. J Strength Cond Res 30(11): 3044-3050, 2016-The purposes of this study were to evaluate a new method using electronic timing gates to monitor base stealing performance in terms of reliability, differences between it and traditional stopwatch-collected times, and its ability to predict base stealing performance. Twenty-five healthy collegiate baseball players performed maximal effort base stealing trials with a right and left-handed pitcher. An infrared electronic timing system was used to calculate the reaction time (RT) and total time (TT), whereas coaches' times (CT) were recorded with digital stopwatches. Reliability of the TGM was evaluated with intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) and coefficient of variation (CV). Differences between the TGM and traditional CT were calculated with paired samples t tests Cohen's d effect size estimates. Base stealing performance predictability of the TGM was evaluated with Pearson's bivariate correlations. Acceptable relative reliability was observed (ICCs 0.74-0.84). Absolute reliability measures were acceptable for TT (CVs = 4.4-4.8%), but measures were elevated for RT (CVs = 32.3-35.5%). Statistical and practical differences were found between TT and CT (right p = 0.00, d = 1.28 and left p = 0.00, d = 1.49). The TGM TT seems to be a decent predictor of base stealing performance (r = -0.49 to -0.61). The authors recommend using the TGM used in this investigation for athlete monitoring because it was found to be reliable, seems to be more precise than traditional CT measured with a stopwatch, provides an additional variable of value (RT), and may predict future performance.

Communication Systems for Dual Mode Transportation

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1974-02-01

A program is underway to develop and demonstrate transportation systems based on vehicles which are capable of automatic operation on special guideways and manual operation on conventional roads. Adequate and reliable communications to and from vehic...

Reliability Growth and Its Applications to Dormant Reliability

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-12-01

ability to make projection about future reli- ability (Rof 9:41-42). Barlow and Scheuer Model. Richard E. Barlow and Ernest M. Sch~uvr, of the University...Reliability Growth Prediction Models," Operations Research, 18(l):S2-6S (January/February 1970). 7. Bauer, John, William Hadley, and Robert Dietz... Texarkana , Texas, May 1973. (AD 768 119). 10. Bonis, Austin J. "Reliability Growth Curves for One Shot Devices," Proceedings 1977 Annual Reliability and

On the reliability of computed chaotic solutions of non-linear differential equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, Shijun

2009-08-01

A new concept, namely the critical predictable time Tc, is introduced to give a more precise description of computed chaotic solutions of non-linear differential equations: it is suggested that computed chaotic solutions are unreliable and doubtable when t > Tc. This provides us a strategy to detect reliable solution from a given computed result. In this way, the computational phenomena, such as computational chaos (CC), computational periodicity (CP) and computational prediction uncertainty, which are mainly based on long-term properties of computed time-series, can be completely avoided. Using this concept, the famous conclusion `accurate long-term prediction of chaos is impossible' should be replaced by a more precise conclusion that `accurate prediction of chaos beyond the critical predictable time Tc is impossible'. So, this concept also provides us a timescale to determine whether or not a particular time is long enough for a given non-linear dynamic system. Besides, the influence of data inaccuracy and various numerical schemes on the critical predictable time is investigated in details by using symbolic computation software as a tool. A reliable chaotic solution of Lorenz equation in a rather large interval 0 <= t < 1200 non-dimensional Lorenz time units is obtained for the first time. It is found that the precision of the initial condition and the computed data at each time step, which is mathematically necessary to get such a reliable chaotic solution in such a long time, is so high that it is physically impossible due to the Heisenberg uncertainty principle in quantum physics. This, however, provides us a so-called `precision paradox of chaos', which suggests that the prediction uncertainty of chaos is physically unavoidable, and that even the macroscopical phenomena might be essentially stochastic and thus could be described by probability more economically.

Reliability Analysis of Uniaxially Ground Brittle Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jonathan A.; Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Choi, Sung R.

1995-01-01

The fast fracture strength distribution of uniaxially ground, alpha silicon carbide was investigated as a function of grinding angle relative to the principal stress direction in flexure. Both as-ground and ground/annealed surfaces were investigated. The resulting flexural strength distributions were used to verify reliability models and predict the strength distribution of larger plate specimens tested in biaxial flexure. Complete fractography was done on the specimens. Failures occurred from agglomerates, machining cracks, or hybrid flaws that consisted of a machining crack located at a processing agglomerate. Annealing eliminated failures due to machining damage. Reliability analyses were performed using two and three parameter Weibull and Batdorf methodologies. The Weibull size effect was demonstrated for machining flaws. Mixed mode reliability models reasonably predicted the strength distributions of uniaxial flexure and biaxial plate specimens.

Measurement of fatigue: Comparison of the reliability and validity of single-item and short measures to a comprehensive measure.

PubMed

Kim, Hee-Ju; Abraham, Ivo

2017-01-01

Evidence is needed on the clinicometric properties of single-item or short measures as alternatives to comprehensive measures. We examined whether two single-item fatigue measures (i.e., Likert scale, numeric rating scale) or a short fatigue measure were comparable to a comprehensive measure in reliability (i.e., internal consistency and test-retest reliability) and validity (i.e., convergent, concurrent, and predictive validity) in Korean young adults. For this quantitative study, we selected the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Fatigue for the comprehensive measure and the Profile of Mood States-Brief, Fatigue subscale for the short measure; and constructed two single-item measures. A total of 368 students from four nursing colleges in South Korea participated. We used Cronbach's alpha and item-total correlation for internal consistency reliability and intraclass correlation coefficient for test-retest reliability. We assessed Pearson's correlation with a comprehensive measure for convergent validity, with perceived stress level and sleep quality for concurrent validity and the receiver operating characteristic curve for predictive validity. The short measure was comparable to the comprehensive measure in internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's alpha=0.81 vs. 0.88); test-retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient=0.66 vs. 0.61); convergent validity (r with comprehensive measure=0.79); concurrent validity (r with perceived stress=0.55, r with sleep quality=0.39) and predictive validity (area under curve=0.88). Single-item measures were not comparable to the comprehensive measure. A short fatigue measure exhibited similar levels of reliability and validity to the comprehensive measure in Korean young adults. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Opportunities of probabilistic flood loss models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Lüdtke, Stefan; Vogel, Kristin; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

Oftentimes, traditional uni-variate damage models as for instance depth-damage curves fail to reproduce the variability of observed flood damage. However, reliable flood damage models are a prerequisite for the practical usefulness of the model results. Innovative multi-variate probabilistic modelling approaches are promising to capture and quantify the uncertainty involved and thus to improve the basis for decision making. In this study we compare the predictive capability of two probabilistic modelling approaches, namely Bagging Decision Trees and Bayesian Networks and traditional stage damage functions. For model evaluation we use empirical damage data which are available from computer aided telephone interviews that were respectively compiled after the floods in 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2013 in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. We carry out a split sample test by sub-setting the damage records. One sub-set is used to derive the models and the remaining records are used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. Further we stratify the sample according to catchments which allows studying model performance in a spatial transfer context. Flood damage estimation is carried out on the scale of the individual buildings in terms of relative damage. The predictive performance of the models is assessed in terms of systematic deviations (mean bias), precision (mean absolute error) as well as in terms of sharpness of the predictions the reliability which is represented by the proportion of the number of observations that fall within the 95-quantile and 5-quantile predictive interval. The comparison of the uni-variable Stage damage function and the multivariable model approach emphasises the importance to quantify predictive uncertainty. With each explanatory variable, the multi-variable model reveals an additional source of uncertainty. However, the predictive performance in terms of precision (mbe), accuracy (mae) and reliability (HR) is clearly improved in comparison to uni-variable Stage damage function. Overall, Probabilistic models provide quantitative information about prediction uncertainty which is crucial to assess the reliability of model predictions and improves the usefulness of model results.

Assuring reliability program effectiveness.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ball, L. W.

1973-01-01

An attempt is made to provide simple identification and description of techniques that have proved to be most useful either in developing a new product or in improving reliability of an established product. The first reliability task is obtaining and organizing parts failure rate data. Other tasks are parts screening, tabulation of general failure rates, preventive maintenance, prediction of new product reliability, and statistical demonstration of achieved reliability. Five principal tasks for improving reliability involve the physics of failure research, derating of internal stresses, control of external stresses, functional redundancy, and failure effects control. A final task is the training and motivation of reliability specialist engineers.

On Some Methods in Safety Evaluation in Geotechnics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puła, Wojciech; Zaskórski, Łukasz

2015-06-01

The paper demonstrates how the reliability methods can be utilised in order to evaluate safety in geotechnics. Special attention is paid to the so-called reliability based design that can play a useful and complementary role to Eurocode 7. In the first part, a brief review of first- and second-order reliability methods is given. Next, two examples of reliability-based design are demonstrated. The first one is focussed on bearing capacity calculation and is dedicated to comparison with EC7 requirements. The second one analyses a rigid pile subjected to lateral load and is oriented towards working stress design method. In the second part, applications of random field to safety evaluations in geotechnics are addressed. After a short review of the theory a Random Finite Element algorithm to reliability based design of shallow strip foundation is given. Finally, two illustrative examples for cohesive and cohesionless soils are demonstrated.

Assessing communication skills of clinical call handlers working at an out-of-hours centre: development of the RICE rating scale.

PubMed

Derkx, Hay P; Rethans, Jan-Joost E; Knottnerus, J André; Ram, Paul M

2007-05-01

Out-of-hours centres provide telephone support to patients with medical problems. In most of these centres specially-trained nurses handle incoming telephone calls. They assess patients' needs, the degree of urgency, and determine the level of care required. Assessment of the medical problem and the quality of 'care-by-phone' depend on the medical and communication skills of the call handlers. To develop a valid, reliable, and practical rating scale to evaluate the communication skills of call handlers working at an out-of-hours centre and to improve quality of communication. Qualitative study with focus groups followed by validation of the rating scale and measurement of reliability (internal consistency). Out-of-hours centres in the Netherlands. A focus group developed the rating scale. Experts with experience in training and evaluating communication skills of medical students and GPs commented on the scale to ensure content validity. The reliability of the rating scale was tested in a pilot in which ten specially-trained assessors scored six telephone calls each. The scale, known as the RICE rating scale, has 17 items divided over four different phases of the telephone consultation: Reason for calling; Information gathering; Conclusion; and Evaluation (RICE). Content validity of the scale was assessed by two experts. Reliability of the scale tested in the pilot was 0.73 (Cronbach's alpha). Establishing a rating scale to assess the communication skills of call handlers which meets common scientific demands, such as content validity and reliability, proved successful. This instrument can be used to give feedback to call handlers.

Reliability of IGBT in a STATCOM for Harmonic Compensation and Power Factor Correction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gopi Reddy, Lakshmi Reddy; Tolbert, Leon M; Ozpineci, Burak

With smart grid integration, there is a need to characterize reliability of a power system by including reliability of power semiconductors in grid related applications. In this paper, the reliability of IGBTs in a STATCOM application is presented for two different applications, power factor correction and harmonic elimination. The STATCOM model is developed in EMTP, and analytical equations for average conduction losses in an IGBT and a diode are derived and compared with experimental data. A commonly used reliability model is used to predict reliability of IGBT.

Identifying dyslexia in adults: an iterative method using the predictive value of item scores and self-report questions.

PubMed

Tamboer, Peter; Vorst, Harrie C M; Oort, Frans J

2014-04-01

Methods for identifying dyslexia in adults vary widely between studies. Researchers have to decide how many tests to use, which tests are considered to be the most reliable, and how to determine cut-off scores. The aim of this study was to develop an objective and powerful method for diagnosing dyslexia. We took various methodological measures, most of which are new compared to previous methods. We used a large sample of Dutch first-year psychology students, we considered several options for exclusion and inclusion criteria, we collected as many cognitive tests as possible, we used six independent sources of biographical information for a criterion of dyslexia, we compared the predictive power of discriminant analyses and logistic regression analyses, we used both sum scores and item scores as predictor variables, we used self-report questions as predictor variables, and we retested the reliability of predictions with repeated prediction analyses using an adjusted criterion. We were able to identify 74 dyslexic and 369 non-dyslexic students. For 37 students, various predictions were too inconsistent for a final classification. The most reliable predictions were acquired with item scores and self-report questions. The main conclusion is that it is possible to identify dyslexia with a high reliability, although the exact nature of dyslexia is still unknown. We therefore believe that this study yielded valuable information for future methods of identifying dyslexia in Dutch as well as in other languages, and that this would be beneficial for comparing studies across countries.

Progressive and regressive developmental changes in neural substrates for face processing: Testing specific predictions of the Interactive Specialization account

PubMed Central

Joseph, Jane E.; Gathers, Ann D.; Bhatt, Ramesh S.

2010-01-01

Face processing undergoes a fairly protracted developmental time course but the neural underpinnings are not well understood. Prior fMRI studies have only examined progressive changes (i.e., increases in specialization in certain regions with age), which would be predicted by both the Interactive Specialization (IS) and maturational theories of neural development. To differentiate between these accounts, the present study also examined regressive changes (i.e., decreases in specialization in certain regions with age), which is predicted by the IS but not maturational account. The fMRI results show that both progressive and regressive changes occur, consistent with IS. Progressive changes mostly occurred in occipital-fusiform and inferior frontal cortex whereas regressive changes largely emerged in parietal and lateral temporal cortices. Moreover, inconsistent with the maturational account, all of the regions involved in face viewing in adults were active in children, with some regions already specialized for face processing by 5 years of age and other regions activated in children but not specifically for faces. Thus, neurodevelopment of face processing involves dynamic interactions among brain regions including age-related increases and decreases in specialization and the involvement of different regions at different ages. These results are more consistent with IS than maturational models of neural development. PMID:21399706

The redoubtable ecological periodic table

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological periodic tables are repositories of reliable information on quantitative, predictably recurring (periodic) habitat–community patterns and their uncertainty, scaling and transferability. Their reliability derives from their grounding in sound ecological principle...

Encoding of Vicarious Reward Prediction in Anterior Cingulate Cortex and Relationship with Trait Empathy

PubMed Central

Apps, Matthew A.J.; Roiser, Jonathan P.; Viding, Essi

2015-01-01

Empathy—the capacity to understand and resonate with the experiences of others—can depend on the ability to predict when others are likely to receive rewards. However, although a plethora of research has examined the neural basis of predictions about the likelihood of receiving rewards ourselves, very little is known about the mechanisms that underpin variability in vicarious reward prediction. Human neuroimaging and nonhuman primate studies suggest that a subregion of the anterior cingulate cortex in the gyrus (ACCg) is engaged when others receive rewards. Does the ACCg show specialization for processing predictions about others' rewards and not one's own and does this specialization vary with empathic abilities? We examined hemodynamic responses in the human brain time-locked to cues that were predictive of a high or low probability of a reward either for the subject themselves or another person. We found that the ACCg robustly signaled the likelihood of a reward being delivered to another. In addition, ACCg response significantly covaried with trait emotion contagion, a necessary foundation for empathizing with other individuals. In individuals high in emotion contagion, the ACCg was specialized for processing others' rewards exclusively, but for those low in emotion contagion, this region also responded to information about the subject's own rewards. Our results are the first to show that the ACCg signals probabilistic predictions about rewards for other people and that the substantial individual variability in the degree to which the ACCg is specialized for processing others' rewards is related to trait empathy. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Successfully cooperating, competing, or empathizing with others can depend on our ability to predict when others are going to get something rewarding. Although many studies have examined how the brain processes rewards we will get ourselves, very little is known about vicarious reward processing. Here, we show that a subregion of the anterior cingulate cortex in the gyrus (ACCg) shows a degree of specialization for processing others' versus one's own rewards. However, the degree to which the ACCg is specialized varies with people's ability to empathize with others. This new insight into how vicarious rewards are processed in the brain and vary with empathy may be key for understanding disorders of social behavior, including psychopathy and autism. PMID:26446224

Reliability of laboratory measurement of human food intake.

PubMed

Laessle, R; Geiermann, L

2012-02-01

The universal eating monitor (UEM) of Kissileff for laboratory measurement of food intake was modified and used with a newly developed special software to compute cumulative intake data. To explore the measurement precision of the UEM an investigation of test-retest-reliability of food intake parameters was conducted. The intake characteristics of 125 males and females were measured repeatedly in the laboratory with a measurement interval of 1 week. Pudding of preferred flavour served as test meal. Test-retest-reliability of intake characteristics ranged from .49 (change of eating rate) to .89 (initial eating rate). All test-retest correlations were highly significant. Sex, BMI and eating habits according to TFEQ-factors had no significant effects on reliability of intake characteristics. The test-retest-reliability of the laboratory intake measures is as good as those of personality questionnaires, where it should be better than .80. Reliability coefficients are valid independent of sex, BMI or trait characteristics of eating behaviour. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of an Integrated HPC Reliability Prediction Framework to HMMWV Suspension System

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-13

model number M966 (TOW Missle Carrier, Basic Armor without weapons), since they were available. Tires used for all simulations were the bias-type...vehicle fleet, including consideration of all kinds of uncertainty, especially including model uncertainty. The end result will be a tool to use...building an adequate vehicle reliability prediction framework for military vehicles is the accurate modeling of the integration of various types of

Design of Oil-Lubricated Machine for Life and Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2007-01-01

In the post-World War II era, the major technology drivers for improving the life, reliability, and performance of rolling-element bearings and gears have been the jet engine and the helicopter. By the late 1950s, most of the materials used for bearings and gears in the aerospace industry had been introduced into use. By the early 1960s, the life of most steels was increased over that experienced in the early 1940s, primarily by the introduction of vacuum degassing and vacuum melting processes in the late 1950s. The development of elastohydrodynamic (EHD) theory showed that most rolling bearings and gears have a thin film separating the contacting bodies during motion and it is that film which affects their lives. Computer programs modeling bearing and gear dynamics that incorporate probabilistic life prediction methods and EHD theory enable optimization of rotating machinery based on life and reliability. With improved manufacturing and processing, the potential improvement in bearing and gear life can be as much as 80 times that attainable in the early 1950s. The work presented summarizes the use of laboratory fatigue data for bearings and gears coupled with probabilistic life prediction and EHD theories to predict the life and reliability of a commercial turboprop gearbox. The resulting predictions are compared with field data.

Wikipedia : its reliability and social role

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusaka, Kyuhachi

This article discusses Japanese Wikipedia's reliability and its social role as a free, collaborative, multilingual Internet encyclopedia supported by the non-profit Wikimedia Foundation. Japanese Wikipedia's reliability is explained from several surveys. The central concern is how the nature of encyclopedia and Wikipedia affects the quality of Wikipedia's articles. Wikipedia's core content policies such as verifiability, no original research and a neutral point of view will make articles better. But incomplete or poorly written first drafts exist because Wikipedia is a work in progress. The article also argues that social role of online encyclopedia which provides knowledge for all. Knowledge-based society or/and advanced information society require public understanding of science and other expertise. Online encyclopedia attributed to a reliable, published source using an inline citation will guide anyone to specialized knowledge.

TD-LTE Wireless Private Network QoS Transmission Protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jianming; Cheng, Chao; Wu, Zanhong

With the commencement of construction of the smart grid, the demand power business for reliability and security continues to improve, the reliability transmission of power TD-LTE Wireless Private Network are more and more attention. For TD-LTE power private network, it can provide different QoS services according to the user's business type, to protect the reliable transmission of business. This article describes in detail the AF module of PCC in the EPC network, specifically introduces set up AF module station and QoS mechanisms in the EPS load, fully considers the business characteristics of the special power network, establishing a suitable architecture for mapping QoS parameters, ensuring the implementation of each QoS business. Through using radio bearer management, we can achieve the reliable transmission of each business on physical channel.

Modeling of BN Lifetime Prediction of a System Based on Integrated Multi-Level Information

PubMed Central

Wang, Xiaohong; Wang, Lizhi

2017-01-01

Predicting system lifetime is important to ensure safe and reliable operation of products, which requires integrated modeling based on multi-level, multi-sensor information. However, lifetime characteristics of equipment in a system are different and failure mechanisms are inter-coupled, which leads to complex logical correlations and the lack of a uniform lifetime measure. Based on a Bayesian network (BN), a lifetime prediction method for systems that combine multi-level sensor information is proposed. The method considers the correlation between accidental failures and degradation failure mechanisms, and achieves system modeling and lifetime prediction under complex logic correlations. This method is applied in the lifetime prediction of a multi-level solar-powered unmanned system, and the predicted results can provide guidance for the improvement of system reliability and for the maintenance and protection of the system. PMID:28926930

Modeling of BN Lifetime Prediction of a System Based on Integrated Multi-Level Information.

PubMed

Wang, Jingbin; Wang, Xiaohong; Wang, Lizhi

2017-09-15

Predicting system lifetime is important to ensure safe and reliable operation of products, which requires integrated modeling based on multi-level, multi-sensor information. However, lifetime characteristics of equipment in a system are different and failure mechanisms are inter-coupled, which leads to complex logical correlations and the lack of a uniform lifetime measure. Based on a Bayesian network (BN), a lifetime prediction method for systems that combine multi-level sensor information is proposed. The method considers the correlation between accidental failures and degradation failure mechanisms, and achieves system modeling and lifetime prediction under complex logic correlations. This method is applied in the lifetime prediction of a multi-level solar-powered unmanned system, and the predicted results can provide guidance for the improvement of system reliability and for the maintenance and protection of the system.

Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory using the active learning kriging model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xufeng; Liu, Yongshou; Ma, Panke

2017-11-01

Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory is investigated. It is rigorously proved that a surrogate model providing only correct sign prediction of the performance function can meet the accuracy requirement of evidence-theory-based reliability analysis. Accordingly, a method based on the active learning kriging model which only correctly predicts the sign of the performance function is proposed. Interval Monte Carlo simulation and a modified optimization method based on Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions are introduced to make the method more efficient in estimating the bounds of failure probability based on the kriging model. Four examples are investigated to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald

2007-01-01

In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

Space Shuttle Program Primary Avionics Software System (PASS) Success Legacy - Quality and Reliability Date

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orr, James K.; Peltier, Daryl

2010-01-01

Thsi slide presentation reviews the avionics software system on board the space shuttle, with particular emphasis on the quality and reliability. The Primary Avionics Software System (PASS) provides automatic and fly-by-wire control of critical shuttle systems which executes in redundant computers. Charts given show the number of space shuttle flights vs time, PASS's development history, and other charts that point to the reliability of the system's development. The reliability of the system is also compared to predicted reliability.

Unified hatch system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hart, R. J.; Walkover, L. J.; Zosky, E. W.

1971-01-01

Special hatch sealing mechanism design increases safety, reliability, and convenience. Adaptations are possible for oceanographic and high-speed aircraft design, or for any system where quick-opening pressure hatch is required. In normal mode, hatching mechanism is manually operated from either side.

MERCURY MEASUREMENTS USING DIRECT-ANALYZER METHODOLOGY

EPA Science Inventory

Under EPA's Water Quality Research Program, exposure studies are needed to determine how well control strategies and guidance are working. Consequently, reliable and convenient techniques that minimize waste production are of special interest. While traditional methods for determ...

Diacetin, a reliable cue and private communication channel in a specialized pollination system

PubMed Central

Schäffler, Irmgard; Steiner, Kim E.; Haid, Mark; van Berkel, Sander S.; Gerlach, Günter; Johnson, Steven D.; Wessjohann, Ludger; Dötterl, Stefan

2015-01-01

The interaction between floral oil secreting plants and oil-collecting bees is one of the most specialized of all pollination mutualisms. Yet, the specific stimuli used by the bees to locate their host flowers have remained elusive. This study identifies diacetin, a volatile acetylated glycerol, as a floral signal compound shared by unrelated oil plants from around the globe. Electrophysiological measurements of antennae and behavioural assays identified diacetin as the key volatile used by oil-collecting bees to locate their host flowers. Furthermore, electrophysiological measurements indicate that only oil-collecting bees are capable of detecting diacetin. The structural and obvious biosynthetic similarity between diacetin and associated floral oils make it a reliable cue for oil-collecting bees. It is easily perceived by oil bees, but can’t be detected by other potential pollinators. Therefore, diacetin represents the first demonstrated private communication channel in a pollination system. PMID:26245141

The Development and Field Test of Employment Interview Questions Designed to Predict Special Education Teachers' Retention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vossler, Victoria L.

2010-01-01

The attrition of special education teachers greatly affects the quality of special education services districts can provide for students with disabilities and creates an ongoing challenge for educational leaders. It is essential to understand the factors influencing special education teachers' decisions to leave or remain in the field. If…

Risk assessment for construction projects of transport infrastructure objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titarenko, Boris

2017-10-01

The paper analyzes and compares different methods of risk assessment for construction projects of transport objects. The management of such type of projects demands application of special probabilistic methods due to large level of uncertainty of their implementation. Risk management in the projects requires the use of probabilistic and statistical methods. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for using traditional methods in combination with robust methods that allow obtaining reliable risk assessments in projects. The robust approach is based on the principle of maximum likelihood and in assessing the risk allows the researcher to obtain reliable results in situations of great uncertainty. The application of robust procedures allows to carry out a quantitative assessment of the main risk indicators of projects when solving the tasks of managing innovation-investment projects. Calculation of damage from the onset of a risky event is possible by any competent specialist. And an assessment of the probability of occurrence of a risky event requires the involvement of special probabilistic methods based on the proposed robust approaches. Practice shows the effectiveness and reliability of results. The methodology developed in the article can be used to create information technologies and their application in automated control systems for complex projects.

Intrinsic, nondeterministic circadian rhythm generation in identified mammalian neurons.

PubMed

Webb, Alexis B; Angelo, Nikhil; Huettner, James E; Herzog, Erik D

2009-09-22

Circadian rhythms are modeled as reliable and self-sustained oscillations generated by single cells. The mammalian suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) keeps near 24-h time in vivo and in vitro, but the identity of the individual cellular pacemakers is unknown. We tested the hypothesis that circadian cycling is intrinsic to a unique class of SCN neurons by measuring firing rate or Period2 gene expression in single neurons. We found that fully isolated SCN neurons can sustain circadian cycling for at least 1 week. Plating SCN neurons at <100 cells/mm(2) eliminated synaptic inputs and revealed circadian neurons that contained arginine vasopressin (AVP) or vasoactive intestinal polypeptide (VIP) or neither. Surprisingly, arrhythmic neurons (nearly 80% of recorded neurons) also expressed these neuropeptides. Furthermore, neurons were observed to lose or gain circadian rhythmicity in these dispersed cell cultures, both spontaneously and in response to forskolin stimulation. In SCN explants treated with tetrodotoxin to block spike-dependent signaling, neurons gained or lost circadian cycling over many days. The rate of PERIOD2 protein accumulation on the previous cycle reliably predicted the spontaneous onset of arrhythmicity. We conclude that individual SCN neurons can generate circadian oscillations; however, there is no evidence for a specialized or anatomically localized class of cell-autonomous pacemakers. Instead, these results indicate that AVP, VIP, and other SCN neurons are intrinsic but unstable circadian oscillators that rely on network interactions to stabilize their otherwise noisy cycling.

Reliability of Radioisotope Stirling Convertor Linear Alternator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, Ashwin; Korovaichuk, Igor; Geng, Steven M.; Schreiber, Jeffrey G.

2006-01-01

Onboard radioisotope power systems being developed and planned for NASA s deep-space missions would require reliable design lifetimes of up to 14 years. Critical components and materials of Stirling convertors have been undergoing extensive testing and evaluation in support of a reliable performance for the specified life span. Of significant importance to the successful development of the Stirling convertor is the design of a lightweight and highly efficient linear alternator. Alternator performance could vary due to small deviations in the permanent magnet properties, operating temperature, and component geometries. Durability prediction and reliability of the alternator may be affected by these deviations from nominal design conditions. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the effect of these uncertainties in predicting the reliability of the linear alternator performance. This paper presents a study in which a reliability-based methodology is used to assess alternator performance. The response surface characterizing the induced open-circuit voltage performance is constructed using 3-D finite element magnetic analysis. Fast probability integration method is used to determine the probability of the desired performance and its sensitivity to the alternator design parameters.

Culture Representation in Human Reliability Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

David Gertman; Julie Marble; Steven Novack

Understanding human-system response is critical to being able to plan and predict mission success in the modern battlespace. Commonly, human reliability analysis has been used to predict failures of human performance in complex, critical systems. However, most human reliability methods fail to take culture into account. This paper takes an easily understood state of the art human reliability analysis method and extends that method to account for the influence of culture, including acceptance of new technology, upon performance. The cultural parameters used to modify the human reliability analysis were determined from two standard industry approaches to cultural assessment: Hofstede’s (1991)more » cultural factors and Davis’ (1989) technology acceptance model (TAM). The result is called the Culture Adjustment Method (CAM). An example is presented that (1) reviews human reliability assessment with and without cultural attributes for a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system attack, (2) demonstrates how country specific information can be used to increase the realism of HRA modeling, and (3) discusses the differences in human error probability estimates arising from cultural differences.« less

On modeling human reliability in space flights - Redundancy and recovery operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aarset, M.; Wright, J. F.

The reliability of humans is of paramount importance to the safety of space flight systems. This paper describes why 'back-up' operators might not be the best solution, and in some cases, might even degrade system reliability. The problem associated with human redundancy calls for special treatment in reliability analyses. The concept of Standby Redundancy is adopted, and psychological and mathematical models are introduced to improve the way such problems can be estimated and handled. In the past, human reliability has practically been neglected in most reliability analyses, and, when included, the humans have been modeled as a component and treated numerically the way technical components are. This approach is not wrong in itself, but it may lead to systematic errors if too simple analogies from the technical domain are used in the modeling of human behavior. In this paper redundancy in a man-machine system will be addressed. It will be shown how simplification from the technical domain, when applied to human components of a system, may give non-conservative estimates of system reliability.

Artificial neural network prediction of aircraft aeroelastic behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pesonen, Urpo Juhani

An Artificial Neural Network that predicts aeroelastic behavior of aircraft is presented. The neural net was designed to predict the shape of a flexible wing in static flight conditions using results from a structural analysis and an aerodynamic analysis performed with traditional computational tools. To generate reliable training and testing data for the network, an aeroelastic analysis code using these tools as components was designed and validated. To demonstrate the advantages and reliability of Artificial Neural Networks, a network was also designed and trained to predict airfoil maximum lift at low Reynolds numbers where wind tunnel data was used for the training. Finally, a neural net was designed and trained to predict the static aeroelastic behavior of a wing without the need to iterate between the structural and aerodynamic solvers.

Evaluation of agreement among dermatologists in the assessment of the color of port wine stains and their clearance after treatment with the flashlamp-pumped dye laser.

PubMed

Pérez, B; Abraira, V; Núñez, M; Boixeda, P; Perez Corral, F; Ledo, A

1997-01-01

Color classification and its subjective clearance evaluation in response to treatment are essential in the management of patients with port wine stains (PWS). But color perception by physicians is not an objective measurement so that it can change among observers. Agreement among physicians is essential for the reliability of the color classification and the clinical assessment of the response to laser treatment. The purpose of our study was to determine the reliability of the clinical color classification of port wine stains and of their color change or clearance in response to laser treatment. The study was not designed to evaluate the outcome of laser treatment in PWS or the factors that could predict the final response. We used the kappa index to evaluate the proportion of agreement in color and clearance perception among dermatologists. Six dermatologists classified the initial color of PWS in 80 patients. Three of them also assessed the amount of clearance achieved after treatment with the flashlamp-pumped dye laser. These three dermatologists were usually dedicated to treat patients with PWS, while the other three were not. The kappa index showed a substantial agreement in both cases. No difference in the initial color perception was observed between the group of dermatologists specialized in PWS and the other three dermatologists. These results favor the reliability of the clinical method in the assessment of PWS before and after laser treatment. So, although subjective, color perception by physicians can be used in the study of laser treatment outcome in PWS and its related factors, and the results of different authors can be compared.

Systems Engineering Approach to Technology Integration for NASA's 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, Dale; Smith, Charles; Thomas, Leann; Kittredge, Sheryl

2002-01-01

The overall goal of the 2nd Generation RLV Program is to substantially reduce technical and business risks associated with developing a new class of reusable launch vehicles. NASA's specific goals are to improve the safety of a 2nd-generation system by 2 orders of magnitude - equivalent to a crew risk of 1-in-10,000 missions - and decrease the cost tenfold, to approximately $1,000 per pound of payload launched. Architecture definition is being conducted in parallel with the maturating of key technologies specifically identified to improve safety and reliability, while reducing operational costs. An architecture broadly includes an Earth-to-orbit reusable launch vehicle, on-orbit transfer vehicles and upper stages, mission planning, ground and flight operations, and support infrastructure, both on the ground and in orbit. The systems engineering approach ensures that the technologies developed - such as lightweight structures, long-life rocket engines, reliable crew escape, and robust thermal protection systems - will synergistically integrate into the optimum vehicle. To best direct technology development decisions, analytical models are employed to accurately predict the benefits of each technology toward potential space transportation architectures as well as the risks associated with each technology. Rigorous systems analysis provides the foundation for assessing progress toward safety and cost goals. The systems engineering review process factors in comprehensive budget estimates, detailed project schedules, and business and performance plans, against the goals of safety, reliability, and cost, in addition to overall technical feasibility. This approach forms the basis for investment decisions in the 2nd Generation RLV Program's risk-reduction activities. Through this process, NASA will continually refine its specialized needs and identify where Defense and commercial requirements overlap those of civil missions.

Systems Engineering Approach to Technology Integration for NASA's 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, Dale; Smith, Charles; Thomas, Leann; Kittredge, Sheryl

2002-01-01

The overall goal of the 2nd Generation RLV Program is to substantially reduce technical and business risks associated with developing a new class of reusable launch vehicles. NASA's specific goals are to improve the safety of a 2nd generation system by 2 orders of magnitude - equivalent to a crew risk of 1-in-10,000 missions - and decrease the cost tenfold, to approximately $1,000 per pound of payload launched. Architecture definition is being conducted in parallel with the maturating of key technologies specifically identified to improve safety and reliability, while reducing operational costs. An architecture broadly includes an Earth-to-orbit reusable launch vehicle, on-orbit transfer vehicles and upper stages, mission planning, ground and flight operations, and support infrastructure, both on the ground and in orbit. The systems engineering approach ensures that the technologies developed - such as lightweight structures, long-life rocket engines, reliable crew escape, and robust thermal protection systems - will synergistically integrate into the optimum vehicle. To best direct technology development decisions, analytical models are employed to accurately predict the benefits of each technology toward potential space transportation architectures as well as the risks associated with each technology. Rigorous systems analysis provides the foundation for assessing progress toward safety and cost goals. The systems engineering review process factors in comprehensive budget estimates, detailed project schedules, and business and performance plans, against the goals of safety, reliability, and cost, in addition to overall technical feasibility. This approach forms the basis for investment decisions in the 2nd Generation RLV Program's risk-reduction activities. Through this process, NASA will continually refine its specialized needs and identify where Defense and commercial requirements overlap those of civil missions.

[Teacher's perfomance assessment in Family Medicine specialization].

PubMed

Martínez-González, Adrián; Gómez-Clavelina, Francisco J; Hernández-Torres, Isaías; Flores-Hernández, Fernando; Sánchez-Mendiola, Melchor

2016-01-01

In Mexico there is no systematic evaluation of teachers in medical specialties. It is difficult to identify appropriate teaching practices. The lack of evaluation has limited the recognition and improvement of teaching. The objective of this study was to analyze feedback from students about teaching activities of teachers-tutors responsible for the specialization course in family medicine, and evaluate the evidence of reliability and validity of the instrument applied online. It was an observational and cross-sectional study. Seventy eight teachers of Family Medicine of medical residency were evaluated by 734 resident´s opinion. The anonymous questionnaire to assess teaching performance by resident's opinion and it is composed of 5 dimensions using a Likert scale. Descriptive and inferential statistics (t test, one-way ANOVA and factor analysis) were used. Residents stated that teaching performance is acceptable, with an average of 4.25 ± 0.93. The best valued dimension was "Methodology" with an average of 4.34 ± .92 in contrast to the "assessment" dimension with 4.16 ± 1.04. Teachers of specialization in family medicine have acceptable performance by resident's opinion. The online assessment tool meets the criteria of validity and reliability.

The Analysis of the System of special water purification of Beloyarskaya Nuclear Power Plant unit BN-800

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valtseva, A. I.; Bibik, I. S.

2017-11-01

This article discusses how the latest system of special water purification KPF-30, designed specifically for the fourth power unit of Beloyarskaya nuclear power plant, which has a number of advantages over other water purification systems as chemical-physical and technical-economic, environmental, and other industrial indicators. The scheme covered in this article systems of special water purification involves the use of a hydrocyclone at the preliminary stage of water treatment, as a worthy alternative to ion-exchange filters, which can significantly reduce the volume of toxic waste. The world community implements the project of closing the nuclear fuel cycle, there is a need to improve the reliability of the equipment for safe processes and development of critical and supercritical parameters in the nuclear industry. Essentially, on operated NPP units, the only factor that can cost-effectively optimize to improve the reliability of equipment is the water chemistry. System KPF30 meets the principles and criteria of ecological safety, demonstrating the justification for reagent less method of water treatment on the main stages, in which no formation of toxic wastes, leading to irreversible consequences of environmental pollution and helps to conserve water.

Multiplier method may be unreliable to predict the timing of temporary hemiepiphysiodesis for coronal angular deformity.

PubMed

Wu, Zhenkai; Ding, Jing; Zhao, Dahang; Zhao, Li; Li, Hai; Liu, Jianlin

2017-07-10

The multiplier method was introduced by Paley to calculate the timing for temporary hemiepiphysiodesis. However, this method has not been verified in terms of clinical outcome measure. We aimed to (1) predict the rate of angular correction per year (ACPY) at the various corresponding ages by means of multiplier method and verify the reliability based on the data from the published studies and (2) screen out risk factors for deviation of prediction. A comprehensive search was performed in the following electronic databases: Cochrane, PubMed, and EMBASE™. A total of 22 studies met the inclusion criteria. If the actual value of ACPY from the collected date was located out of the range of the predicted value based on the multiplier method, it was considered as the deviation of prediction (DOP). The associations of patient characteristics with DOP were assessed with the use of univariate logistic regression. Only one article was evaluated as moderate evidence; the remaining articles were evaluated as poor quality. The rate of DOP was 31.82%. In the detailed individual data of included studies, the rate of DOP was 55.44%. The multiplier method is not reliable in predicting the timing for temporary hemiepiphysiodesis, even though it is prone to be more reliable for the younger patients with idiopathic genu coronal deformity.

PER PhDs & bachelor's degrees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Susan C.

2017-02-01

Recently, the editor remarked to me that physics departments that offered a PhD with a specialization in Physics Education Research (PER) seemed to graduate more bachelor's degree recipients than those physics PhD departments that did not have the specialization. I was not convinced. That led to quite a bit of discussion between us. He compiled a list of PhD departments that advertised a PhD specialization in PER in the 2004, 2005, 2009, and 2010 editions of GradSchoolShopper, a publication of the American Institute of Physics. Since not every department responded reliably every year, I combined the 2004 and 2005 data and the 2009 and 2010 data. I then compared the departments that advertised a PER specialization during both timeframes (2004 and/or 2005 and 2009 and/or 2010) with physics PhD-granting departments that did not indicate the specialization at all.

The Reliability and Validity of the Thoracolumbar Injury Classification System in Pediatric Spine Trauma.

PubMed

Savage, Jason W; Moore, Timothy A; Arnold, Paul M; Thakur, Nikhil; Hsu, Wellington K; Patel, Alpesh A; McCarthy, Kathryn; Schroeder, Gregory D; Vaccaro, Alexander R; Dimar, John R; Anderson, Paul A

2015-09-15

The thoracolumbar injury classification system (TLICS) was evaluated in 20 consecutive pediatric spine trauma cases. The purpose of this study was to determine the reliability and validity of the TLICS in pediatric spine trauma. The TLICS was developed to improve the categorization and management of thoracolumbar trauma. TLICS has been shown to have good reliability and validity in the adult population. The clinical and radiographical findings of 20 pediatric thoracolumbar fractures were prospectively presented to 20 surgeons with disparate levels of training and experience with spinal trauma. These injuries were consecutively scored using the TLICS. Cohen unweighted κ coefficients and Spearman rank order correlation values were calculated for the key parameters (injury morphology, status of posterior ligamentous complex, neurological status, TLICS total score, and proposed management) to assess the inter-rater reliabilities. Five surgeons scored the same cases 3 months later to assess the intra-rater reliability. The actual management of each case was then compared with the treatment recommended by the TLICS algorithm to assess validity. The inter-rater κ statistics of all subgroups (injury morphology, status of the posterior ligamentous complex, neurological status, TLICS total score, and proposed treatment) were within the range of moderate to substantial reproducibility (0.524-0.958). All subgroups had excellent intra-rater reliability (0.748-1.000). The various indices for validity were calculated (80.3% correct, 0.836 sensitivity, 0.785 specificity, 0.676 positive predictive value, 0.899 negative predictive value). Overall, TLICS demonstrated good validity. The TLICS has good reliability and validity when used in the pediatric population. The inter-rater reliability of predicting management and indices for validity are lower than those in adults with thoracolumbar fractures, which is likely due to differences in the way children are treated for certain types of injuries. TLICS can be used to reliably categorize thoracolumbar injuries in the pediatric population; however, modifications may be needed to better guide treatment in this specific patient population. 4.

Basis And Application Of The CARES/LIFE Computer Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.; Powers, Lynn M.

1996-01-01

Report discusses physical and mathematical basis of Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures LIFE prediction (CARES/LIFE) computer program, described in "Program for Evaluation of Reliability of Ceramic Parts" (LEW-16018).

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account risks attributable to manufacturing, assembly, and process controls. These sources often dominate component level reliability or risk of failure probability. While consequences of failure is often understood in assessing risk, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence will likely underestimate the risk. Managers and decision makers often use the probability of occurrence in determining whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. Due to the absence of system level test and operational data inherent in aerospace applications, the actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be appropriately characterized for decision making purposes. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Interconnect fatigue design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mon, G. R.; Moore, D. M.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

1982-01-01

The results of comprehensive investigation of interconnect fatigue that has led to the definition of useful reliability-design and life-prediction algorithms are presented. Experimental data indicate that the classical strain-cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material is a good model of mean interconnect fatigue performance, but it fails to account for the broad statistical scatter, which is critical to reliability prediction. To fill this shortcoming the classical fatigue curve is combined with experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data to yield statistical fatigue curves (having failure probability as a parameter) which enable (1) the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, and (2) the unambiguous--ie., quantitative--interpretation of data from field-service qualification (accelerated thermal cycling) tests. Optimal interconnect cost-reliability design algorithms are derived based on minimizing the cost of energy over the design life of the array field.

Interconnect fatigue design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mon, G. R.; Moore, D. M.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

1982-03-01

The results of comprehensive investigation of interconnect fatigue that has led to the definition of useful reliability-design and life-prediction algorithms are presented. Experimental data indicate that the classical strain-cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material is a good model of mean interconnect fatigue performance, but it fails to account for the broad statistical scatter, which is critical to reliability prediction. To fill this shortcoming the classical fatigue curve is combined with experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data to yield statistical fatigue curves (having failure probability as a parameter) which enable (1) the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, and (2) the unambiguous--ie., quantitative--interpretation of data from field-service qualification (accelerated thermal cycling) tests. Optimal interconnect cost-reliability design algorithms are derived based on minimizing the cost of energy over the design life of the array field.

Audience preferences are predicted by temporal reliability of neural processing

PubMed Central

Dmochowski, Jacek P.; Bezdek, Matthew A.; Abelson, Brian P.; Johnson, John S.; Schumacher, Eric H.; Parra, Lucas C.

2014-01-01

Naturalistic stimuli evoke highly reliable brain activity across viewers. Here we record neural activity from a group of naive individuals while viewing popular, previously-broadcast television content for which the broad audience response is characterized by social media activity and audience ratings. We find that the level of inter-subject correlation in the evoked encephalographic responses predicts the expressions of interest and preference among thousands. Surprisingly, ratings of the larger audience are predicted with greater accuracy than those of the individuals from whom the neural data is obtained. An additional functional magnetic resonance imaging study employing a separate sample of subjects shows that the level of neural reliability evoked by these stimuli covaries with the amount of blood-oxygenation-level-dependent (BOLD) activation in higher-order visual and auditory regions. Our findings suggest that stimuli which we judge favourably may be those to which our brains respond in a stereotypical manner shared by our peers. PMID:25072833

Estimating the Reliability of Electronic Parts in High Radiation Fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Everline, Chester; Clark, Karla; Man, Guy; Rasmussen, Robert; Johnston, Allan; Kohlhase, Charles; Paulos, Todd

2008-01-01

Radiation effects on materials and electronic parts constrain the lifetime of flight systems visiting Europa. Understanding mission lifetime limits is critical to the design and planning of such a mission. Therefore, the operational aspects of radiation dose are a mission success issue. To predict and manage mission lifetime in a high radiation environment, system engineers need capable tools to trade radiation design choices against system design and reliability, and science achievements. Conventional tools and approaches provided past missions with conservative designs without the ability to predict their lifetime beyond the baseline mission.This paper describes a more systematic approach to understanding spacecraft design margin, allowing better prediction of spacecraft lifetime. This is possible because of newly available electronic parts radiation effects statistics and an enhanced spacecraft system reliability methodology. This new approach can be used in conjunction with traditional approaches for mission design. This paper describes the fundamentals of the new methodology.

Identification of Extracellular Segments by Mass Spectrometry Improves Topology Prediction of Transmembrane Proteins.

PubMed

Langó, Tamás; Róna, Gergely; Hunyadi-Gulyás, Éva; Turiák, Lilla; Varga, Julia; Dobson, László; Várady, György; Drahos, László; Vértessy, Beáta G; Medzihradszky, Katalin F; Szakács, Gergely; Tusnády, Gábor E

2017-02-13

Transmembrane proteins play crucial role in signaling, ion transport, nutrient uptake, as well as in maintaining the dynamic equilibrium between the internal and external environment of cells. Despite their important biological functions and abundance, less than 2% of all determined structures are transmembrane proteins. Given the persisting technical difficulties associated with high resolution structure determination of transmembrane proteins, additional methods, including computational and experimental techniques remain vital in promoting our understanding of their topologies, 3D structures, functions and interactions. Here we report a method for the high-throughput determination of extracellular segments of transmembrane proteins based on the identification of surface labeled and biotin captured peptide fragments by LC/MS/MS. We show that reliable identification of extracellular protein segments increases the accuracy and reliability of existing topology prediction algorithms. Using the experimental topology data as constraints, our improved prediction tool provides accurate and reliable topology models for hundreds of human transmembrane proteins.

System-wide versus component-specific trust using multiple aids.

PubMed

Keller, David; Rice, Stephen

2010-01-01

Previous research in operator trust toward automated aids has focused primarily on single aids. The current study focuses on how operator trust is affected by the presence of multiple aids. Two competing theories of multiple-trust are presented. A component-specific trust theory predicts that operators will differentially place their trust in automated aids that vary in reliability. A system-wide trust theory predicts that operators will treat multiple imperfect aids as one "system" and merge their trust across aids despite differences in the aids' reliability. A simulated flight task was used to test these theories, whereby operators performed a pursuit tracking task while concurrently monitoring multiple system gauges that were augmented with perfect or imperfect automated aids. The data revealed that a system-wide trust theory best predicted the data; operators merged their trust across both aids, behaving toward a perfectly reliable aid in the same manner as they did towards unreliable aids.

Audience preferences are predicted by temporal reliability of neural processing.

PubMed

Dmochowski, Jacek P; Bezdek, Matthew A; Abelson, Brian P; Johnson, John S; Schumacher, Eric H; Parra, Lucas C

2014-07-29

Naturalistic stimuli evoke highly reliable brain activity across viewers. Here we record neural activity from a group of naive individuals while viewing popular, previously-broadcast television content for which the broad audience response is characterized by social media activity and audience ratings. We find that the level of inter-subject correlation in the evoked encephalographic responses predicts the expressions of interest and preference among thousands. Surprisingly, ratings of the larger audience are predicted with greater accuracy than those of the individuals from whom the neural data is obtained. An additional functional magnetic resonance imaging study employing a separate sample of subjects shows that the level of neural reliability evoked by these stimuli covaries with the amount of blood-oxygenation-level-dependent (BOLD) activation in higher-order visual and auditory regions. Our findings suggest that stimuli which we judge favourably may be those to which our brains respond in a stereotypical manner shared by our peers.

Oral absorption of peptides and nanoparticles across the human intestine: Opportunities, limitations and studies in human tissues.

PubMed

Lundquist, P; Artursson, P

2016-11-15

In this contribution, we review the molecular and physiological barriers to oral delivery of peptides and nanoparticles. We discuss the opportunities and predictivity of various in vitro systems with special emphasis on human intestine in Ussing chambers. First, the molecular constraints to peptide absorption are discussed. Then the physiological barriers to peptide delivery are examined. These include the gastric and intestinal environment, the mucus barrier, tight junctions between epithelial cells, the enterocytes of the intestinal epithelium, and the subepithelial tissue. Recent data from human proteome studies are used to provide information about the protein expression profiles of the different physiological barriers to peptide and nanoparticle absorption. Strategies that have been employed to increase peptide absorption across each of the barriers are discussed. Special consideration is given to attempts at utilizing endogenous transcytotic pathways. To reliably translate in vitro data on peptide or nanoparticle permeability to the in vivo situation in a human subject, the in vitro experimental system needs to realistically capture the central aspects of the mentioned barriers. Therefore, characteristics of common in vitro cell culture systems are discussed and compared to those of human intestinal tissues. Attempts to use the cell and tissue models for in vitro-in vivo extrapolation are reviewed. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Brief Measure of Language Skills at 3 Years of Age and Special Education Use in Middle Childhood.

PubMed

McIntyre, Laura Lee; Pelham, William E; Kim, Matthew H; Dishion, Thomas J; Shaw, Daniel S; Wilson, Melvin N

2017-02-01

To test whether a language screener administered during early childhood predicts special education referrals and placement in middle childhood. A series of logistic regressions was conducted in a longitudinal study of 731 children. Predictor variables included scores on the early language screener (Fluharty Preschool Speech and Language Screening Test-Second Edition [Fluharty-2]) at ages 3 and 4 years, a standardized measure of academic achievement at age 5 years, and parent report of special education services at ages 7.5, 8.5, and 9.5 years. Results showed that higher scores on the Fluharty-2 predicted a reduced likelihood of having an individualized education program (OR 0.48), being referred for special education (OR 0.55), and being held back a grade (OR 0.37). These findings did not vary by sex, race, or ethnicity, and remained significant after controlling for male sex, behavior problems, parental education, and family income. The Fluharty-2 remained predictive of special education outcomes even after controlling for children's academic skills at age 5 years. Results suggest that structured, brief assessments of language in early childhood are robust predictors of children's future engagement in special education services and low academic achievement. Primary care physicians may use a multipronged developmental surveillance and monitoring protocol designed to identify children who may need comprehensive evaluation and intervention. Early intervention may reduce the need for costly special education services in the future and reduce comorbid conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliability generalization study of the Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale for children and adolescents.

PubMed

López-Pina, José Antonio; Sánchez-Meca, Julio; López-López, José Antonio; Marín-Martínez, Fulgencio; Núñez-Núñez, Rosa Ma; Rosa-Alcázar, Ana I; Gómez-Conesa, Antonia; Ferrer-Requena, Josefa

2015-01-01

The Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale for children and adolescents (CY-BOCS) is a frequently applied test to assess obsessive-compulsive symptoms. We conducted a reliability generalization meta-analysis on the CY-BOCS to estimate the average reliability, search for reliability moderators, and propose a predictive model that researchers and clinicians can use to estimate the expected reliability of the CY-BOCS scores. A total of 47 studies reporting a reliability coefficient with the data at hand were included in the meta-analysis. The results showed good reliability and a large variability associated to the standard deviation of total scores and sample size.

Tutorial on use of intraclass correlation coefficients for assessing intertest reliability and its application in functional near-infrared spectroscopy-based brain imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lin; Zeng, Li; Lin, Zi-Jing; Cazzell, Mary; Liu, Hanli

2015-05-01

Test-retest reliability of neuroimaging measurements is an important concern in the investigation of cognitive functions in the human brain. To date, intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), originally used in inter-rater reliability studies in behavioral sciences, have become commonly used metrics in reliability studies on neuroimaging and functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). However, as there are six popular forms of ICC, the adequateness of the comprehensive understanding of ICCs will affect how one may appropriately select, use, and interpret ICCs toward a reliability study. We first offer a brief review and tutorial on the statistical rationale of ICCs, including their underlying analysis of variance models and technical definitions, in the context of assessment on intertest reliability. Second, we provide general guidelines on the selection and interpretation of ICCs. Third, we illustrate the proposed approach by using an actual research study to assess intertest reliability of fNIRS-based, volumetric diffuse optical tomography of brain activities stimulated by a risk decision-making protocol. Last, special issues that may arise in reliability assessment using ICCs are discussed and solutions are suggested.

Quantum chemical calculation of the equilibrium structures of small metal atom clusters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahn, L. R.

1982-01-01

Metal atom clusters are studied based on the application of ab initio quantum mechanical approaches. Because these large 'molecular' systems pose special practical computational problems in the application of the quantum mechanical methods, there is a special need to find simplifying techniques that do not compromise the reliability of the calculations. Research is therefore directed towards various aspects of the implementation of the effective core potential technique for the removal of the metal atom core electrons from the calculations.

Reliable prediction of heat transfer coefficient in three-phase bubble column reactor via adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and regularization network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garmroodi Asil, A.; Nakhaei Pour, A.; Mirzaei, Sh.

2018-04-01

In the present article, generalization performances of regularization network (RN) and optimize adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) are compared with a conventional software for prediction of heat transfer coefficient (HTC) as a function of superficial gas velocity (5-25 cm/s) and solid fraction (0-40 wt%) at different axial and radial locations. The networks were trained by resorting several sets of experimental data collected from a specific system of air/hydrocarbon liquid phase/silica particle in a slurry bubble column reactor (SBCR). A special convection HTC measurement probe was manufactured and positioned in an axial distance of 40 and 130 cm above the sparger at center and near the wall of SBCR. The simulation results show that both in-house RN and optimized ANFIS due to powerful noise filtering capabilities provide superior performances compared to the conventional software of MATLAB ANFIS and ANN toolbox. For the case of 40 and 130 cm axial distance from center of sparger, at constant superficial gas velocity of 25 cm/s, adding 40 wt% silica particles to liquid phase leads to about 66% and 69% increasing in HTC respectively. The HTC in the column center for all the cases studied are about 9-14% larger than those near the wall region.

Measurement versus prediction in the construction of patient-reported outcome questionnaires: can we have our cake and eat it?

PubMed

Smits, Niels; van der Ark, L Andries; Conijn, Judith M

2017-11-02

Two important goals when using questionnaires are (a) measurement: the questionnaire is constructed to assign numerical values that accurately represent the test taker's attribute, and (b) prediction: the questionnaire is constructed to give an accurate forecast of an external criterion. Construction methods aimed at measurement prescribe that items should be reliable. In practice, this leads to questionnaires with high inter-item correlations. By contrast, construction methods aimed at prediction typically prescribe that items have a high correlation with the criterion and low inter-item correlations. The latter approach has often been said to produce a paradox concerning the relation between reliability and validity [1-3], because it is often assumed that good measurement is a prerequisite of good prediction. To answer four questions: (1) Why are measurement-based methods suboptimal for questionnaires that are used for prediction? (2) How should one construct a questionnaire that is used for prediction? (3) Do questionnaire-construction methods that optimize measurement and prediction lead to the selection of different items in the questionnaire? (4) Is it possible to construct a questionnaire that can be used for both measurement and prediction? An empirical data set consisting of scores of 242 respondents on questionnaire items measuring mental health is used to select items by means of two methods: a method that optimizes the predictive value of the scale (i.e., forecast a clinical diagnosis), and a method that optimizes the reliability of the scale. We show that for the two scales different sets of items are selected and that a scale constructed to meet the one goal does not show optimal performance with reference to the other goal. The answers are as follows: (1) Because measurement-based methods tend to maximize inter-item correlations by which predictive validity reduces. (2) Through selecting items that correlate highly with the criterion and lowly with the remaining items. (3) Yes, these methods may lead to different item selections. (4) For a single questionnaire: Yes, but it is problematic because reliability cannot be estimated accurately. For a test battery: Yes, but it is very costly. Implications for the construction of patient-reported outcome questionnaires are discussed.

Characteristics, Predictors, and Growth Trajectories of Children Who Exit Special Education Compared to Their General and Special Education Peers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dragoo, Kyrie Elizabeth

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the characteristics and predictive factors for children receiving special education services, and if they received special education services, factors associated with them discontinuing those services before eighth grade. In addition, a second purpose was to determine whether there are differences in the…

Special Needs Characteristics of Children with Emotional and Behavioral Disorders that Affect Inclusion in Regular Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stoutjesdijk, Regina; Scholte, Evert M.; Swaab, Hanna

2012-01-01

The aim of this study is to determine the discriminating special needs characteristics of children with emotional and behavioral disorders (EBD) that predict restrictiveness of placement in special education. The focus is on dynamic factors instead of static factors. To this end, 235 children with EBD in special schools and 111 children with EBD…

PWSCC Assessment by Using Extended Finite Element Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sung-Jun; Lee, Sang-Hwan; Chang, Yoon-Suk

2015-12-01

The head penetration nozzle of control rod driving mechanism (CRDM) is known to be susceptible to primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC) due to the welding-induced residual stress. Especially, the J-groove dissimilar metal weld regions have received many attentions in the previous studies. However, even though several advanced techniques such as weight function and finite element alternating methods have been introduced to predict the occurrence of PWSCC, there are still difficulties in respect of applicability and efficiency. In this study, the extended finite element method (XFEM), which allows convenient crack element modeling by enriching degree of freedom (DOF) with special displacement function, was employed to evaluate structural integrity of the CRDM head penetration nozzle. The resulting stress intensity factors of surface cracks were verified for the reliability of proposed method through the comparison with those suggested in the American Society of Mechanical Engineering (ASME) code. The detailed results from the FE analyses are fully discussed in the manuscript.

A process model for the heat-affected zone microstructure evolution in duplex stainless steel weldments: Part II. Application to electron beam welding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemmer, H.; Grong, Ø.; Klokkehaug, S.

2000-03-01

In the present investigation, a process model for electron beam (EB) welding of different grades of duplex stainless steels (i.e. SAF 2205 and 2507) has been developed. A number of attractive features are built into the original finite element code, including (1) a separate module for prediction of the penetration depth and distribution of the heat source into the plate, (2) adaptive refinement of the three-dimensional (3-D) element mesh for quick and reliable solution of the differential heat flow equation, and (3) special subroutines for calculation of the heat-affected zone (HAZ) microstructure evolution. The process model has been validated by comparison with experimental data obtained from in situ thermocouple measurements and optical microscope examinations. Subsequently, its aptness to alloy design and optimization of welding conditions for duplex stainless steels is illustrated in different numerical examples and case studies pertaining to EB welding of tubular joints.

Artificial intelligence and the space station software support environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marlowe, Gilbert

1986-01-01

In a software system the size of the Space Station Software Support Environment (SSE), no one software development or implementation methodology is presently powerful enough to provide safe, reliable, maintainable, cost effective real time or near real time software. In an environment that must survive one of the most harsh and long life times, software must be produced that will perform as predicted, from the first time it is executed to the last. Many of the software challenges that will be faced will require strategies borrowed from Artificial Intelligence (AI). AI is the only development area mentioned as an example of a legitimate reason for a waiver from the overall requirement to use the Ada programming language for software development. The limits are defined of the applicability of the Ada language Ada Programming Support Environment (of which the SSE is a special case), and software engineering to AI solutions by describing a scenario that involves many facets of AI methodologies.

Design of a Facility to Test the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Engineering Unit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewandowski, Edward J.; Schreiber, Jeffrey G.; Oriti, Salvatore M.; Meer, David W.; Brace, Michael H.; Dugala, Gina

2009-01-01

The Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) is being considered to power deep space missions. An engineering unit, the ASRG-EU, was designed and fabricated by Lockheed Martin under contract to the Department of Energy. This unit is currently on an extended operation test at NASA Glenn Research Center to generate performance data and validate the life and reliability predictions for the generator and the Stirling convertors. A special test facility was designed and built for testing the ASRG-EU. Details of the test facility design are discussed. The facility can operate the convertors under AC bus control or with the ASRG-EU controller. It can regulate input thermal power in either a fixed temperature or fixed power mode. An enclosure circulates cooled air around the ASRG-EU to remove heat rejected from the ASRG-EU by convection. A custom monitoring and data acquisition system supports the test. Various safety features, which allow 2417 unattended operation, are discussed.

Commentary on two classroom observation systems: moving toward a shared understanding of effective teaching.

PubMed

Connor, Carol McDonald

2013-12-01

In this commentary, I make five points: that designing observation systems that actually predict students' outcomes is challenging; second that systems that capture the complex and dynamic nature of the classroom learning environment are more likely to be able to meet this challenge; three, that observation tools are most useful when developed to serve a particular purpose and are put to that purpose; four that technology can help; and five, there are policy implications for valid and reliable classroom observation tools. The two observation systems presented in this special issue represent an important step forward and a move toward policy that promises to make a true difference in what is defined as high quality and effective teaching, what it looks like in the classroom, and how these practices can be more widely disseminated so that all children, including those attending under-resourced schools, can experience effective instruction, academic success and the lifelong accomplishment that follows. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

ELUCIDATING BRAIN CONNECTIVITY NETWORKS IN MAJOR DEPRESSIVE DISORDER USING CLASSIFICATION-BASED SCORING.

PubMed

Sacchet, Matthew D; Prasad, Gautam; Foland-Ross, Lara C; Thompson, Paul M; Gotlib, Ian H

2014-04-01

Graph theory is increasingly used in the field of neuroscience to understand the large-scale network structure of the human brain. There is also considerable interest in applying machine learning techniques in clinical settings, for example, to make diagnoses or predict treatment outcomes. Here we used support-vector machines (SVMs), in conjunction with whole-brain tractography, to identify graph metrics that best differentiate individuals with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) from nondepressed controls. To do this, we applied a novel feature-scoring procedure that incorporates iterative classifier performance to assess feature robustness. We found that small-worldness , a measure of the balance between global integration and local specialization, most reliably differentiated MDD from nondepressed individuals. Post-hoc regional analyses suggested that heightened connectivity of the subcallosal cingulate gyrus (SCG) in MDDs contributes to these differences. The current study provides a novel way to assess the robustness of classification features and reveals anomalies in large-scale neural networks in MDD.

Predictors of alcohol abusers' inconsistent self-reports of their drinking and life events.

PubMed

Toneatto, T; Sobell, L C; Sobell, M B

1992-06-01

Although considerable research supports the veridicality of alcohol abusers' self-reports, all studies find that some proportion of self-reports are inaccurate. Recently, a few studies have examined variables predictive of inaccurate self-reports and found considerable intersubject variability. The present study examined predictors of alcohol abusers' inconsistent reports of life events and drinking using test-retest reliability data from two questionnaires. Results indicated that inconsistent self-reports were associated with the type (i.e., objective versus subjective) and amount (i.e., more drinking involvement at the first interview was associated with greater discrepant reports at the second interview) of information to be recalled. It appears that the nature of the questions asked may be as much or more of a contributing factor to inaccurate self-reports as subject or setting factors, especially for individuals who report high levels of alcohol use, for whom special efforts may be necessary to gather valid self-report data.

Insights into the transmission of respiratory infectious diseases through empirical human contact networks

PubMed Central

Huang, Chunlin; Liu, Xingwu; Sun, Shiwei; Li, Shuai Cheng; Deng, Minghua; He, Guangxue; Zhang, Haicang; Wang, Chao; Zhou, Yang; Zhao, Yanlin; Bu, Dongbo

2016-01-01

In this study, we present representative human contact networks among Chinese college students. Unlike schools in the US, human contacts within Chinese colleges are extremely clustered, partly due to the highly organized lifestyle of Chinese college students. Simulations of influenza spreading across real contact networks are in good accordance with real influenza records; however, epidemic simulations across idealized scale-free or small-world networks show considerable overestimation of disease prevalence, thus challenging the widely-applied idealized human contact models in epidemiology. Furthermore, the special contact pattern within Chinese colleges results in disease spreading patterns distinct from those of the US schools. Remarkably, class cancelation, though simple, shows a mitigating power equal to quarantine/vaccination applied on ~25% of college students, which quantitatively explains its success in Chinese colleges during the SARS period. Our findings greatly facilitate reliable prediction of epidemic prevalence, and thus should help establishing effective strategies for respiratory infectious diseases control. PMID:27526868

Commentary on Two Classroom Observation Systems: Moving Toward a Shared Understanding of Effective Teaching

PubMed Central

Connor, Carol McDonald

2016-01-01

In this commentary, I make five points: that designing observation systems that actually predict students’ outcomes is challenging; second that systems that capture the complex and dynamic nature of the classroom learning environment are more likely to be able to meet this challenge; three, that observation tools are most useful when developed to serve a particular purpose and are put to that purpose; four that technology can help; and five, there are policy implications for valid and reliable classroom observation tools. The two observation systems presented in this special issue represent an important step forward and a move toward policy that promises to make a true difference in what is defined as high quality and effective teaching, what it looks like in the classroom, and how these practices can be more widely disseminated so that all children, including those attending under-resourced schools, can experience effective instruction, academic success and the lifelong accomplishment that follows. PMID:24341927

Basic Principles of Electrical Network Reliability Optimization in Liberalised Electricity Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oleinikova, I.; Krishans, Z.; Mutule, A.

2008-01-01

The authors propose to select long-term solutions to the reliability problems of electrical networks in the stage of development planning. The guide lines or basic principles of such optimization are: 1) its dynamical nature; 2) development sustainability; 3) integrated solution of the problems of network development and electricity supply reliability; 4) consideration of information uncertainty; 5) concurrent consideration of the network and generation development problems; 6) application of specialized information technologies; 7) definition of requirements for independent electricity producers. In the article, the major aspects of liberalized electricity market, its functions and tasks are reviewed, with emphasis placed on the optimization of electrical network development as a significant component of sustainable management of power systems.

Robotic Assembly of Truss Structures for Space Systems and Future Research Plans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doggett, William

2002-01-01

Many initiatives under study by both the space science and earth science communities require large space systems, i.e. with apertures greater than 15 m or dimensions greater than 20 m. This paper reviews the effort in NASA Langley Research Center's Automated Structural Assembly Laboratory which laid the foundations for robotic construction of these systems. In the Automated Structural Assembly Laboratory reliable autonomous assembly and disassembly of an 8 meter planar structure composed of 102 truss elements covered by 12 panels was demonstrated. The paper reviews the hardware and software design philosophy which led to reliable operation during weeks of near continuous testing. Special attention is given to highlight the features enhancing assembly reliability.

Combining empirical approaches and error modelling to enhance predictive uncertainty estimation in extrapolation for operational flood forecasting. Tests on flood events on the Loire basin, France.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berthet, Lionel; Marty, Renaud; Bourgin, François; Viatgé, Julie; Piotte, Olivier; Perrin, Charles

2017-04-01

An increasing number of operational flood forecasting centres assess the predictive uncertainty associated with their forecasts and communicate it to the end users. This information can match the end-users needs (i.e. prove to be useful for an efficient crisis management) only if it is reliable: reliability is therefore a key quality for operational flood forecasts. In 2015, the French flood forecasting national and regional services (Vigicrues network; www.vigicrues.gouv.fr) implemented a framework to compute quantitative discharge and water level forecasts and to assess the predictive uncertainty. Among the possible technical options to achieve this goal, a statistical analysis of past forecasting errors of deterministic models has been selected (QUOIQUE method, Bourgin, 2014). It is a data-based and non-parametric approach based on as few assumptions as possible about the forecasting error mathematical structure. In particular, a very simple assumption is made regarding the predictive uncertainty distributions for large events outside the range of the calibration data: the multiplicative error distribution is assumed to be constant, whatever the magnitude of the flood. Indeed, the predictive distributions may not be reliable in extrapolation. However, estimating the predictive uncertainty for these rare events is crucial when major floods are of concern. In order to improve the forecasts reliability for major floods, an attempt at combining the operational strength of the empirical statistical analysis and a simple error modelling is done. Since the heteroscedasticity of forecast errors can considerably weaken the predictive reliability for large floods, this error modelling is based on the log-sinh transformation which proved to reduce significantly the heteroscedasticity of the transformed error in a simulation context, even for flood peaks (Wang et al., 2012). Exploratory tests on some operational forecasts issued during the recent floods experienced in France (major spring floods in June 2016 on the Loire river tributaries and flash floods in fall 2016) will be shown and discussed. References Bourgin, F. (2014). How to assess the predictive uncertainty in hydrological modelling? An exploratory work on a large sample of watersheds, AgroParisTech Wang, Q. J., Shrestha, D. L., Robertson, D. E. and Pokhrel, P (2012). A log-sinh transformation for data normalization and variance stabilization. Water Resources Research, , W05514, doi:10.1029/2011WR010973

Validity and reliability of clinical prediction rules used to screen for cervical spine injury in alert low-risk patients with blunt trauma to the neck: part 2. A systematic review from the Cervical Assessment and Diagnosis Research Evaluation (CADRE) Collaboration.

PubMed

Moser, N; Lemeunier, N; Southerst, D; Shearer, H; Murnaghan, K; Sutton, D; Côté, P

2018-06-01

To update findings of the 2000-2010 Bone and Joint Decade Task Force on Neck Pain and its Associated Disorders (Neck Pain Task Force) on the validity and reliability of clinical prediction rules used to screen for cervical spine injury in alert low-risk adult patients with blunt trauma to the neck. We searched four databases from 2005 to 2015. Pairs of independent reviewers critically appraised eligible studies using the modified QUADAS-2 and QAREL criteria. We synthesized low risk of bias studies following best evidence synthesis principles. We screened 679 citations; five had a low risk of bias and were included in our synthesis. The sensitivity of the Canadian C-spine rule ranged from 0.90 to 1.00 with negative predictive values ranging from 99 to 100%. Inter-rater reliability of the Canadian C-spine rule varied from k = 0.60 between nurses and physicians to k = 0.93 among paramedics. The inter-rater reliability of the Nexus Low-Risk Criteria was k = 0.53 between resident physicians and faculty physicians. Our review adds new evidence to the Neck Pain Task Force and supports the use of clinical prediction rules in emergency care settings to screen for cervical spine injury in alert low-risk adult patients with blunt trauma to the neck. The Canadian C-spine rule consistently demonstrated excellent sensitivity and negative predictive values. Our review, however, suggests that the reproducibility of the clinical predictions rules varies depending on the examiners level of training and experience.

Height prediction equations for even-aged upland oak stands

Treesearch

Donald E. Hilt; Martin E. Dale

1982-01-01

Forest growth models that use predicted tree diameters or diameter distributions require a reliable height-prediction model to obtain volume estimates because future height-diameter relationships will not necessarily be the same as the present height-diameter relationship. A total tree height prediction equation for even-aged upland oak stands is presented. Predicted...

Two-phase flow characterization based on advanced instrumentation, neural networks, and mathematical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mi, Ye

1998-12-01

The major objective of this thesis is focused on theoretical and experimental investigations of identifying and characterizing vertical and horizontal flow regimes in two-phase flows. A methodology of flow regime identification with impedance-based neural network systems and a comprehensive model of vertical slug flow have been developed. Vertical slug flow has been extensively investigated and characterized with geometric, kinematic and hydrodynamic parameters. A multi-sensor impedance void-meter and a multi-sensor magnetic flowmeter were developed. The impedance void-meter was cross-calibrated with other reliable techniques for void fraction measurements. The performance of the impedance void-meter to measure the void propagation velocity was evaluated by the drift flux model. It was proved that the magnetic flowmeter was applicable to vertical slug flow measurements. Separable signals from these instruments allow us to unearth most characteristics of vertical slug flow. A methodology of vertical flow regime identification was developed. Supervised neural network and self-organizing neural network systems were employed. First, they were trained with results from an idealized simulation of impedance in a two-phase mixture. The simulation was mainly based on Mishima and Ishii's flow regime map, the drift flux model, and the newly developed model of slug flow. Then, these trained systems were tested with impedance signals. The results showed that the neural network systems were appropriate classifiers of vertical flow regimes. The theoretical models and experimental databases used in the simulation were reliable. Furthermore, this approach was applied successfully to horizontal flow identification. A comprehensive model was developed to predict important characteristics of vertical slug flow. It was realized that the void fraction of the liquid slug is determined by the relative liquid motion between the Taylor bubble tail and the Taylor bubble wake. Relying on this understanding and experimental results, a special relationship was built for the void fraction of the liquid slug. The prediction of the void fraction of the liquid slug was considerably improved. Experimental characterization of vertical slug flows was performed extensively with the impedance void-meter and the magnetic flowmeter. The theoretical predictions were compared with the experimental results. The agreements between them are very satisfactory.

T3SEdb: data warehousing of virulence effectors secreted by the bacterial Type III Secretion System.

PubMed

Tay, Daniel Ming Ming; Govindarajan, Kunde Ramamoorthy; Khan, Asif M; Ong, Terenze Yao Rui; Samad, Hanif M; Soh, Wei Wei; Tong, Minyan; Zhang, Fan; Tan, Tin Wee

2010-10-15

Effectors of Type III Secretion System (T3SS) play a pivotal role in establishing and maintaining pathogenicity in the host and therefore the identification of these effectors is important in understanding virulence. However, the effectors display high level of sequence diversity, therefore making the identification a difficult process. There is a need to collate and annotate existing effector sequences in public databases to enable systematic analyses of these sequences for development of models for screening and selection of putative novel effectors from bacterial genomes that can be validated by a smaller number of key experiments. Herein, we present T3SEdb http://effectors.bic.nus.edu.sg/T3SEdb, a specialized database of annotated T3SS effector (T3SE) sequences containing 1089 records from 46 bacterial species compiled from the literature and public protein databases. Procedures have been defined for i) comprehensive annotation of experimental status of effectors, ii) submission and curation review of records by users of the database, and iii) the regular update of T3SEdb existing and new records. Keyword fielded and sequence searches (BLAST, regular expression) are supported for both experimentally verified and hypothetical T3SEs. More than 171 clusters of T3SEs were detected based on sequence identity comparisons (intra-cluster difference up to ~60%). Owing to this high level of sequence diversity of T3SEs, the T3SEdb provides a large number of experimentally known effector sequences with wide species representation for creation of effector predictors. We created a reliable effector prediction tool, integrated into the database, to demonstrate the application of the database for such endeavours. T3SEdb is the first specialised database reported for T3SS effectors, enriched with manual annotations that facilitated systematic construction of a reliable prediction model for identification of novel effectors. The T3SEdb represents a platform for inclusion of additional annotations of metadata for future developments of sophisticated effector prediction models for screening and selection of putative novel effectors from bacterial genomes/proteomes that can be validated by a small number of key experiments.

Sample size requirements for the design of reliability studies: precision consideration.

PubMed

Shieh, Gwowen

2014-09-01

In multilevel modeling, the intraclass correlation coefficient based on the one-way random-effects model is routinely employed to measure the reliability or degree of resemblance among group members. To facilitate the advocated practice of reporting confidence intervals in future reliability studies, this article presents exact sample size procedures for precise interval estimation of the intraclass correlation coefficient under various allocation and cost structures. Although the suggested approaches do not admit explicit sample size formulas and require special algorithms for carrying out iterative computations, they are more accurate than the closed-form formulas constructed from large-sample approximations with respect to the expected width and assurance probability criteria. This investigation notes the deficiency of existing methods and expands the sample size methodology for the design of reliability studies that have not previously been discussed in the literature.

Anticipatory versus reactive spatial attentional bias to threat.

PubMed

Gladwin, Thomas E; Möbius, Martin; McLoughlin, Shane; Tyndall, Ian

2018-05-10

Dot-probe or visual probe tasks (VPTs) are used extensively to measure attentional biases. A novel variant termed the cued VPT (cVPT) was developed to focus on the anticipatory component of attentional bias. This study aimed to establish an anticipatory attentional bias to threat using the cVPT and compare its split-half reliability with a typical dot-probe task. A total of 120 students performed the cVPT task and dot-probe tasks. Essentially, the cVPT uses cues that predict the location of pictorial threatening stimuli, but on trials on which probe stimuli are presented the pictures do not appear. Hence, actual presentation of emotional stimuli did not affect responses. The reliability of the cVPT was higher at most cue-stimulus intervals and was .56 overall. A clear anticipatory attentional bias was found. In conclusion, the cVPT may be of methodological and theoretical interest. Using visually neutral predictive cues may remove sources of noise that negatively impact reliability. Predictive cues are able to bias response selection, suggesting a role of predicted outcomes in automatic processes. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

Short communication: Improving accuracy of predicting breeding values in Brazilian Holstein population by adding data from Nordic and French Holstein populations.

PubMed

Li, X; Lund, M S; Zhang, Q; Costa, C N; Ducrocq, V; Su, G

2016-06-01

The present study investigated the improvement of prediction reliabilities for 3 production traits in Brazilian Holsteins that had no genotype information by adding information from Nordic and French Holstein bulls that had genotypes. The estimated across-country genetic correlations (ranging from 0.604 to 0.726) indicated that an important genotype by environment interaction exists between Brazilian and Nordic (or Nordic and French) populations. Prediction reliabilities for Brazilian genotyped bulls were greatly increased by including data of Nordic and French bulls, and a 2-trait single-step genomic BLUP performed much better than the corresponding pedigree-based BLUP. However, only a minor improvement in prediction reliabilities was observed in nongenotyped Brazilian cows. The results indicate that although there is a large genotype by environment interaction, inclusion of a foreign reference population can improve accuracy of genetic evaluation for the Brazilian Holstein population. However, a Brazilian reference population is necessary to obtain a more accurate genomic evaluation. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time dependent reliability model incorporating continuum damage mechanics for high-temperature ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, Stephen F.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1989-01-01

Presently there are many opportunities for the application of ceramic materials at elevated temperatures. In the near future ceramic materials are expected to supplant high temperature metal alloys in a number of applications. It thus becomes essential to develop a capability to predict the time-dependent response of these materials. The creep rupture phenomenon is discussed, and a time-dependent reliability model is outlined that integrates continuum damage mechanics principles and Weibull analysis. Several features of the model are presented in a qualitative fashion, including predictions of both reliability and hazard rate. In addition, a comparison of the continuum and the microstructural kinetic equations highlights a strong resemblance in the two approaches.

Predicting the Reliability of Ceramics Under Transient Loads and Temperatures With CARES/Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Palfi, Tamas; Baker, Eric H.

2003-01-01

A methodology is shown for predicting the time-dependent reliability of ceramic components against catastrophic rupture when subjected to transient thermomechanical loads (including cyclic loads). The methodology takes into account the changes in material response that can occur with temperature or time (i.e., changing fatigue and Weibull parameters with temperature or time). This capability has been added to the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. The code has been modified to have the ability to interface with commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) codes executed for transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

Failure mode analysis to predict product reliability.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zemanick, P. P.

1972-01-01

The failure mode analysis (FMA) is described as a design tool to predict and improve product reliability. The objectives of the failure mode analysis are presented as they influence component design, configuration selection, the product test program, the quality assurance plan, and engineering analysis priorities. The detailed mechanics of performing a failure mode analysis are discussed, including one suggested format. Some practical difficulties of implementation are indicated, drawn from experience with preparing FMAs on the nuclear rocket engine program.

Discrete Address Beacon System (DABS) Software System Reliability Modeling and Prediction.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-06-01

Service ( ATARS ) module because of its interim status. Reliability prediction models for software modules were derived and then verified by matching...System (A’iCR3BS) and thus can be introduced gradually and economically without ma jor olper- ational or procedural change. Since DABS uses monopulse...lineanaly- sis tools or are ured during maintenance or pre-initialization were not modeled because they are not part of the mission software. The ATARS

A Modified Goodness-of-Fit Test for the Lognormal Distribution with Unknown Scale and Location Parameters.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-12-01

Force and other branches of the military are placing an increased emphasis on system reliablity and maintainability. In studying current systems ...used in the research of proposed systems , by predicting MTTF and MTTR of the new parts and thus, predict the reliability of those parts. The statistics...effectiveness of new systems . Aitchison’s book on the lognormal distribution, printed and used by Cambridge University, highlighted the distributions

Non-Traditional Predictors of Academic Success for Special Action Admissions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tom, Alice K.

The use of nontraditional college admission variables in the prediction of academic success was assessed with 444 freshmen entering the University of California, Davis, under the Special Action process (wavering of admission requirements). For fall 1978, 1979, 1980 special entrants, attention was directed to college applications, including high…

The IERS Special Bureau for Tides

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.; Chao, B. F.; Desai, S. D.

2002-01-01

The Global Geophysical Fluids Center of the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) comprises 8 special bureaus, one of which is the Special Bureau for Tides. Its purpose is to facilitate studies related to tidal effects in earth rotation. To that end it collects various relevant datasets and distributes them, primarily through its website at bowie.gsfc.nasa.gov/ggfc/tides. Example datasets include tabulations of tidal variations in angular momentum and in earth rotation as estimated from numerical ocean tide models and from meteorological reanalysis products. The web site also features an interactive tidal prediction "machine" which generates tidal predictions (e.g., of UT1) from lists of harmonic constants. The Special Bureau relies on the tidal and earth-rotation communities to build and enlarge its datasets; further contributions from this community are most welcome.

Preliminary Solar Sail Design and Fabrication Assessment: Spinning Sail Blade, Square Sail Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniels, J. B.; Dowdle, D. M.; Hahn, D. W.; Hildreth, E. N.; Lagerquist, D. R.; Mahaonoul, E. J.; Munson, J. B.; Origer, T. F.

1977-01-01

Blade design aspects most affecting producibility and means of measurement and control of length, scallop, fullness and straightness requirements and tolerances were extensively considered. Alternate designs of the panel seams and edge reinforcing members are believed to offer advantages of seam integrity, producibility, reliability, cost and weight. Approaches to and requirements for highly specialized metalizing methods, processes and equipment were studied and identified. Alternate methods of sail blade fabrication and related special machinery, tooling, fixtures and trade offs were examined. A preferred and recommended approach is also described. Quality control plans, inspection procedures, flow charts and special test equipment associated with the preferred manufacturing method were analyzed and are discussed.

Syntactic Predictability in the Recognition of Carefully and Casually Produced Speech

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Viebahn, Malte C.; Ernestus, Mirjam; McQueen, James M.

2015-01-01

The present study investigated whether the recognition of spoken words is influenced by how predictable they are given their syntactic context and whether listeners assign more weight to syntactic predictability when acoustic-phonetic information is less reliable. Syntactic predictability was manipulated by varying the word order of past…

Reliability of self-reported childhood physical abuse by adults and factors predictive of inconsistent reporting.

PubMed

McKinney, Christy M; Harris, T Robert; Caetano, Raul

2009-01-01

Little is known about the reliability of self-reported child physical abuse (CPA) or CPA reporting practices. We estimated reliability and prevalence of self-reported CPA and identified factors predictive of inconsistent CPA reporting among 2,256 participants using surveys administered in 1995 and 2000. Reliability of CPA was fair to moderate (kappa = 0.41). Using a positive report from either survey, the prevalence of moderate (61.8%) and severe (12.0%) CPA was higher than at either survey alone. Compared to consistent reporters of having experienced CPA, inconsistent reporters were less likely to be > or = 30 years old (vs. 18-29) or Black (vs. White) and more likely to have < 12 years of education (vs. 12), have no alcohol-related problems (vs. having problems), or report one type (vs. > or = 2) of CPA. These findings may assist researchers conducting and interpreting studies of CPA.

[Study of the relationship between human quality and reliability].

PubMed

Long, S; Wang, C; Wang, L i; Yuan, J; Liu, H; Jiao, X

1997-02-01

To clarify the relationship between human quality and reliability, 1925 experiments in 20 subjects were carried out to study the relationship between disposition character, digital memory, graphic memory, multi-reaction time and education level and simulated aircraft operation. Meanwhile, effects of task difficulty and enviromental factor on human reliability were also studied. The results showed that human quality can be predicted and evaluated through experimental methods. The better the human quality, the higher the human reliability.

Alberta infant motor scale: reliability and validity when used on preterm infants in Taiwan.

PubMed

Jeng, S F; Yau, K I; Chen, L C; Hsiao, S F

2000-02-01

The goal of this study was to examine the reliability and validity of measurements obtained with the Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS) for evaluation of preterm infants in Taiwan. Two independent groups of preterm infants were used to investigate the reliability (n=45) and validity (n=41) for the AIMS. In the reliability study, the AIMS was administered to the infants by a physical therapist, and infant performance was videotaped. The performance was then rescored by the same therapist and by 2 other therapists to examine the intrarater and interrater reliability. In the validity study, the AIMS and the Bayley Motor Scale were administered to the infants at 6 and 12 months of age to examine criterion-related validity. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) for intrarater and interrater reliability of measurements obtained with the AIMS were high (ICC=.97-.99). The AIMS scores correlated with the Bayley Motor Scale scores at 6 and 12 months (r=.78 and.90), although the AIMS scores at 6 months were only moderately predictive of the motor function at 12 months (r=.56). The results suggest that measurements obtained with the AIMS have acceptable reliability and concurrent validity but limited predictive value for evaluating preterm Taiwanese infants.

Reliability-Based Life Assessment of Stirling Convertor Heater Head

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, Ashwin R.; Halford, Gary R.; Korovaichuk, Igor

2004-01-01

Onboard radioisotope power systems being developed and planned for NASA's deep-space missions require reliable design lifetimes of up to 14 yr. The structurally critical heater head of the high-efficiency Stirling power convertor has undergone extensive computational analysis of operating temperatures, stresses, and creep resistance of the thin-walled Inconel 718 bill of material. A preliminary assessment of the effect of uncertainties in the material behavior was also performed. Creep failure resistance of the thin-walled heater head could show variation due to small deviations in the manufactured thickness and in uncertainties in operating temperature and pressure. Durability prediction and reliability of the heater head are affected by these deviations from nominal design conditions. Therefore, it is important to include the effects of these uncertainties in predicting the probability of survival of the heater head under mission loads. Furthermore, it may be possible for the heater head to experience rare incidences of small temperature excursions of short duration. These rare incidences would affect the creep strain rate and, therefore, the life. This paper addresses the effects of such rare incidences on the reliability. In addition, the sensitivities of variables affecting the reliability are quantified, and guidelines developed to improve the reliability are outlined. Heater head reliability is being quantified with data from NASA Glenn Research Center's accelerated benchmark testing program.

Establishing the validity and reliability of the Project Talent Personality Inventory

PubMed Central

Pozzebon, Julie; Damian, Rodica I.; Hill, Patrick L.; Lin, Yuchen; Lapham, Susan; Roberts, Brent W.

2013-01-01

Project Talent is a national longitudinal study that started in 1960. The original sample included over 440,000 students, which amounted to a 5% representative sample of high school students across the United States. Previous research has not yet established the validity and reliability of the personality measure used in this study, that is, the Project Talent Personality Inventory (PTPI). Given the potential interest and use of the PTPI in forthcoming research, the goals of the present paper were to establish (a) the construct and predictive validity and (b) the internal consistency and test-retest reliability of the PTPI. This information will be valuable to researchers who might be interested in using the PTPI to predict life course outcomes, such as mortality, occupational success, relationship success, and health. Study 1 found that the 10 sub-scales of the PTPI showed good internal consistency reliability, as well as good construct and predictive validity. With the use of several modern personality measures, we showed how the 10 PTPI scales can be mapped onto the Big Five personality traits, and we examined their relations with health, well-being, and life satisfaction outcomes. Study 2 found that the 10 PTPI scales showed good test-retest reliability. Together, these findings allow researchers to better understand and use the PTPI scales, as they are available in Project Talent. PMID:24399984

Prediction of Process-Induced Distortions in L-Shaped Composite Profiles Using Path-Dependent Constitutive Law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Anxin; Li, Shuxin; Wang, Jihui; Ni, Aiqing; Sun, Liangliang; Chang, Lei

2016-10-01

In this paper, the corner spring-in angles of AS4/8552 L-shaped composite profiles with different thicknesses are predicted using path-dependent constitutive law with the consideration of material properties variation due to phase change during curing. The prediction accuracy mainly depends on the properties in the rubbery and glassy states obtained by homogenization method rather than experimental measurements. Both analytical and finite element (FE) homogenization methods are applied to predict the overall properties of AS4/8552 composite. The effect of fiber volume fraction on the properties is investigated for both rubbery and glassy states using both methods. And the predicted results are compared with experimental measurements for the glassy state. Good agreement is achieved between the predicted results and available experimental data, showing the reliability of the homogenization method. Furthermore, the corner spring-in angles of L-shaped composite profiles are measured experimentally and the reliability of path-dependent constitutive law is validated as well as the properties prediction by FE homogenization method.

Adaptive vehicle motion estimation and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Liang; Thorpe, Chuck E.

1999-01-01

Accurate motion estimation and reliable maneuver prediction enable an automated car to react quickly and correctly to the rapid maneuvers of the other vehicles, and so allow safe and efficient navigation. In this paper, we present a car tracking system which provides motion estimation, maneuver prediction and detection of the tracked car. The three strategies employed - adaptive motion modeling, adaptive data sampling, and adaptive model switching probabilities - result in an adaptive interacting multiple model algorithm (AIMM). The experimental results on simulated and real data demonstrate that our tracking system is reliable, flexible, and robust. The adaptive tracking makes the system intelligent and useful in various autonomous driving tasks.

Reliability of didactic grades to predict practical skills in an undergraduate dental college in Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Zawawi, Khalid H; Afify, Ahmed R; Yousef, Mohammed K; Othman, Hisham I; Al-Dharrab, Ayman A

2015-01-01

This longitudinal study was aimed to investigate the association between didactic grades and practical skills for dental students and whether didactic grades can reliability predict the dental students' practical performance. Didactic and practical grades for graduates from the Faculty of Dentistry, King Abdulaziz University, between the years 2009 and 2011 were collected. Four courses were selected: Dental Anatomy, Operative Dentistry, Prosthodontics, and Orthodontics. Pearson product-moment correlation analyses between didactic and practical scores were conducted. There was only a significant correlation between didactic and practical scores for the Dental Anatomy course (P<0.001). There was also a significant correlation between all four subjects in the didactic scores (P<0.001). Only the scores of male students showed a significant correlation in the Operative Dentistry course (P<0.001). There were no correlations between Orthodontic grades. Moreover, a poor degree of reliability was found between didactic and practical scores for all subjects. Based on the findings of this study, the relationship between didactic grades and practical performance is course specific. Didactic grades do not reliably predict the students' practical skills. Measuring practical performances should be independent from didactic grading.

Reliability of didactic grades to predict practical skills in an undergraduate dental college in Saudi Arabia

PubMed Central

Zawawi, Khalid H; Afify, Ahmed R; Yousef, Mohammed K; Othman, Hisham I; Al-Dharrab, Ayman A

2015-01-01

Objectives This longitudinal study was aimed to investigate the association between didactic grades and practical skills for dental students and whether didactic grades can reliability predict the dental students’ practical performance. Materials and methods Didactic and practical grades for graduates from the Faculty of Dentistry, King Abdulaziz University, between the years 2009 and 2011 were collected. Four courses were selected: Dental Anatomy, Operative Dentistry, Prosthodontics, and Orthodontics. Pearson product-moment correlation analyses between didactic and practical scores were conducted. Results There was only a significant correlation between didactic and practical scores for the Dental Anatomy course (P<0.001). There was also a significant correlation between all four subjects in the didactic scores (P<0.001). Only the scores of male students showed a significant correlation in the Operative Dentistry course (P<0.001). There were no correlations between Orthodontic grades. Moreover, a poor degree of reliability was found between didactic and practical scores for all subjects. Conclusion Based on the findings of this study, the relationship between didactic grades and practical performance is course specific. Didactic grades do not reliably predict the students’ practical skills. Measuring practical performances should be independent from didactic grading. PMID:25878519

Probabilistic Prediction of Lifetimes of Ceramic Parts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Gyekenyesi, John P.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Palfi, Tamas; Powers, Lynn; Reh, Stefan; Baker, Eric H.

2006-01-01

ANSYS/CARES/PDS is a software system that combines the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) software with a modified version of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life (CARES/Life) Version 6.0 software. [A prior version of CARES/Life was reported in Program for Evaluation of Reliability of Ceramic Parts (LEW-16018), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 20, No. 3 (March 1996), page 28.] CARES/Life models effects of stochastic strength, slow crack growth, and stress distribution on the overall reliability of a ceramic component. The essence of the enhancement in CARES/Life 6.0 is the capability to predict the probability of failure using results from transient finite-element analysis. ANSYS PDS models the effects of uncertainty in material properties, dimensions, and loading on the stress distribution and deformation. ANSYS/CARES/PDS accounts for the effects of probabilistic strength, probabilistic loads, probabilistic material properties, and probabilistic tolerances on the lifetime and reliability of the component. Even failure probability becomes a stochastic quantity that can be tracked as a response variable. ANSYS/CARES/PDS enables tracking of all stochastic quantities in the design space, thereby enabling more precise probabilistic prediction of lifetimes of ceramic components.

Using Dynamic Risk and Protective Factors to Predict Inpatient Aggression: Reliability and Validity of START Assessments

PubMed Central

Desmarais, Sarah L.; Nicholls, Tonia L.; Wilson, Catherine M.; Brink, Johann

2012-01-01

The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) is a relatively new structured professional judgment guide for the assessment and management of short-term risks associated with mental, substance use, and personality disorders. The scheme may be distinguished from other violence risk instruments because of its inclusion of 20 dynamic factors that are rated in terms of both vulnerability and strength. This study examined the reliability and validity of START assessments in predicting inpatient aggression. Research assistants completed START assessments for 120 male forensic psychiatric patients through review of hospital files. They additionally completed Historical-Clinical-Risk Management – 20 (HCR-20) and the Hare Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV) assessments. Outcome data was coded from hospital files for a 12-month follow-up period using the Overt Aggression Scale (OAS). START assessments evidenced excellent interrater reliability and demonstrated both predictive and incremental validity over the HCR-20 Historical subscale scores and PCL:SV total scores. Overall, results support the reliability and validity of START assessments, and use of the structured professional judgment approach more broadly, as well as the value of using dynamic risk and protective factors to assess violence risk. PMID:22250595

Two-year Test-Retest Reliability in High School Athletes Using the Four- and Two-Factor ImPACT Composite Structures: The Effects of Learning Disorders and Headache/Migraine Treatment History.

PubMed

Brett, Benjamin L; Solomon, Gary S; Hill, Jennifer; Schatz, Philip

2018-03-01

This study examined the test-retest reliability of the four- and two-factor structures (i.e., Memory and Speed) of ImPACT over a 2-year interval across multiple groups with premorbid conditions, including those with a history of special education or learning disorders (LD; n = 114), treatment history for headache/migraine (n = 81), and a control group (n = 792). Nine hundred and eighty seven high school athletes completed baseline testing using online ImPACT across a 2-year interval. Paired-samples t-tests documented improvement from initial to follow-up assessments. Test stability was examined using Regression-based measures (RBM) and Reliable change indices (RCI). Reliability was examined using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). Significant improvement on all four composites were observed for the control group over a 2-year interval; whereas significant differences were observed only on Visual Motor Speed for the LD and headache/migraine treatment history groups. ICCs ranges were similar across groups and greater or comparable reliability was observed for the two-factor structure on Memory (0.67-0.73) and Speed (0.76-0.78) composites. RCIs and RBMs demonstrated stability for the four- and two-factor structures, with few cases falling outside the range of expected change within a healthy sample at the 90% and 95% CIs. Typical practices of obtaining new baselines every 2 years in the high school population can be applied to athletes with a history of special education or LD and headache/migraine treatment. The two-factor structure has potential to increase test-retest reliability. Further research regarding clinical utility is needed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Measurements of Weight Bearing Asymmetry Using the Nintendo Wii Fit Balance Board Are Not Reliable for Older Adults and Individuals With Stroke.

PubMed

Liuzzo, Derek M; Peters, Denise M; Middleton, Addie; Lanier, Wes; Chain, Rebecca; Barksdale, Brittany; Fritz, Stacy L

Clinicians and researchers have used bathroom scales, balance performance monitors with feedback, postural scale analysis, and force platforms to evaluate weight bearing asymmetry (WBA). Now video game consoles offer a novel alternative for assessing this construct. By using specialized software, the Nintendo Wii Fit balance board can provide reliable measurements of WBA in healthy, young adults. However, reliability of measurements obtained using only the factory settings to assess WBA in older adults and individuals with stroke has not been established. To determine whether measurements of WBA obtained using the Nintendo Wii Fit balance board and default settings are reliable in older adults and individuals with stroke. Weight bearing asymmetry was assessed using the Nintendo Wii Fit balance board in 2 groups of participants-individuals older than 65 years (n = 41) and individuals with stroke (n = 41). Participants were given a standardized set of instructions and were not provided auditory or visual feedback. Two trials were performed. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), standard error of measure (SEM), and minimal detectable change (MDC) scores were determined for each group. The ICC for the older adults sample was 0.59 (0.35-0.76) with SEM95 = 6.2% and MDC95 = 8.8%. The ICC for the sample including individuals with stroke was 0.60 (0.47-0.70) with SEM95 = 9.6% and MDC95 = 13.6%. Although measurements of WBA obtained using the Nintendo Wii Fit balance board, and its default factory settings, demonstrate moderate reliability in older adults and individuals with stroke, the relatively high associated SEM and MDC values substantially reduce the clinical utility of the Nintendo Wii Fit balance board as an assessment tool for WBA. Weight bearing asymmetry cannot be measured reliably in older adults and individuals with stroke using the Nintendo Wii Fit balance board without the use of specialized software.

Measurements of Weight Bearing Asymmetry Using the Nintendo Wii Fit Balance Board Are Not Reliable for Older Adults and Individuals With Stroke

PubMed Central

Liuzzo, Derek M.; Peters, Denise M.; Middleton, Addie; Lanier, Wes; Chain, Rebecca; Barksdale, Brittany; Fritz, Stacy L.

2015-01-01

Background Clinicians and researchers have used bathroom scales, balance performance monitors with feedback, postural scale analysis, and force platforms to evaluate weight bearing asymmetry (WBA). Now video game consoles offer a novel alternative for assessing this construct. By using specialized software, the Nintendo Wii Fit balance board can provide reliable measurements of WBA in healthy, young adults. However, reliability of measurements obtained using only the factory settings to assess WBA in older adults and individuals with stroke has not been established. Purpose To determine whether measurements of WBA obtained using the Nintendo Wii Fit balance board and default settings are reliable in older adults and individuals with stroke. Methods Weight bearing asymmetry was assessed using the Nintendo Wii Fit balance board in 2 groups of participants—individuals older than 65 years (n = 41) and individuals with stroke (n = 41). Participants were given a standardized set of instructions and were not provided auditory or visual feedback. Two trials were performed. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), standard error of measure (SEM), and minimal detectable change (MDC) scores were determined for each group. Results The ICC for the older adults sample was 0.59 (0.35–0.76) with SEM95= 6.2% and MDC95= 8.8%. The ICC for the sample including individuals with stroke was 0.60 (0.47–0.70) with SEM95= 9.6% and MDC95= 13.6%. Discussion Although measurements of WBA obtained using the Nintendo Wii Fit balance board, and its default factory settings, demonstrate moderate reliability in older adults and individuals with stroke, the relatively high associated SEM and MDC values substantially reduce the clinical utility of the Nintendo Wii Fit balance board as an assessment tool for WBA. Conclusions Weight bearing asymmetry cannot be measured reliably in older adults and individuals with stroke using the Nintendo Wii Fit balance board without the use of specialized software. PMID:26288237

Using multivariate regression modeling for sampling and predicting chemical characteristics of mixed waste in old landfills.

PubMed

Brandstätter, Christian; Laner, David; Prantl, Roman; Fellner, Johann

2014-12-01

Municipal solid waste landfills pose a threat on environment and human health, especially old landfills which lack facilities for collection and treatment of landfill gas and leachate. Consequently, missing information about emission flows prevent site-specific environmental risk assessments. To overcome this gap, the combination of waste sampling and analysis with statistical modeling is one option for estimating present and future emission potentials. Optimizing the tradeoff between investigation costs and reliable results requires knowledge about both: the number of samples to be taken and variables to be analyzed. This article aims to identify the optimized number of waste samples and variables in order to predict a larger set of variables. Therefore, we introduce a multivariate linear regression model and tested the applicability by usage of two case studies. Landfill A was used to set up and calibrate the model based on 50 waste samples and twelve variables. The calibrated model was applied to Landfill B including 36 waste samples and twelve variables with four predictor variables. The case study results are twofold: first, the reliable and accurate prediction of the twelve variables can be achieved with the knowledge of four predictor variables (Loi, EC, pH and Cl). For the second Landfill B, only ten full measurements would be needed for a reliable prediction of most response variables. The four predictor variables would exhibit comparably low analytical costs in comparison to the full set of measurements. This cost reduction could be used to increase the number of samples yielding an improved understanding of the spatial waste heterogeneity in landfills. Concluding, the future application of the developed model potentially improves the reliability of predicted emission potentials. The model could become a standard screening tool for old landfills if its applicability and reliability would be tested in additional case studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Job Performance for the Visually Impaired: Validity of the Fine Finger Dexterity Work Task.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Giesen, J. Martin; And Others

The study was designed to determine the reliability and criterion validity of a psychomotor performance test (the Fine Finger Dexterity Work Task Unit) with 40 partially or totally blind adults. Reliability was established by using the test-retest method. A supervisory rating was developed and the reliability established by using the split-half…

A System for Integrated Reliability and Safety Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kostiuk, Peter; Shapiro, Gerald; Hanson, Dave; Kolitz, Stephan; Leong, Frank; Rosch, Gene; Coumeri, Marc; Scheidler, Peter, Jr.; Bonesteel, Charles

1999-01-01

We present an integrated reliability and aviation safety analysis tool. The reliability models for selected infrastructure components of the air traffic control system are described. The results of this model are used to evaluate the likelihood of seeing outcomes predicted by simulations with failures injected. We discuss the design of the simulation model, and the user interface to the integrated toolset.

Reliability and concurrent validity of the computer workstation checklist.

PubMed

Baker, Nancy A; Livengood, Heather; Jacobs, Karen

2013-01-01

Self-report checklists are used to assess computer workstation set up, typically by workers not trained in ergonomic assessment or checklist interpretation.Though many checklists exist, few have been evaluated for reliability and validity. This study examined reliability and validity of the Computer Workstation Checklist (CWC) to identify mismatches between workers' self-reported workstation problems. The CWC was completed at baseline and at 1 month to establish reliability. Validity was determined with CWC baseline data compared to an onsite workstation evaluation conducted by an expert in computer workstation assessment. Reliability ranged from fair to near perfect (prevalence-adjusted bias-adjusted kappa, 0.38-0.93); items with the strongest agreement were related to the input device, monitor, computer table, and document holder. The CWC had greater specificity (11 of 16 items) than sensitivity (3 of 16 items). The positive predictive value was greater than the negative predictive value for all questions. The CWC has strong reliability. Sensitivity and specificity suggested workers often indicated no problems with workstation setup when problems existed. The evidence suggests that while the CWC may not be valid when used alone, it may be a suitable adjunct to an ergonomic assessment completed by professionals.

Reliability, validity and minimal detectable change of computerized respiratory sounds in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PubMed

Oliveira, Ana; Lage, Susan; Rodrigues, João; Marques, Alda

2017-11-17

Computerized respiratory sounds (CRS) are closely related to the movement of air within the tracheobronchial tree and are promising outcome measures in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, CRS measurement properties have been poorly tested. The aim of this study was to assess the reliability, validity and the minimal detectable changes (MDC) of CRS in patients with stable COPD. Fifty patients (36♂, 67.26 ± 9.31y, FEV 1 49.52 ± 19.67%predicted) were enrolled. CRS were recorded simultaneously at seven anatomic locations (trachea; right and left anterior, lateral and posterior chest). The number of crackles, wheeze occupation rate, median frequency (F50) and maximum intensity (Imax) were processed using validated algorithms. Within-day and between-days reliability, criterion and construct validity, validity to predict exacerbations and MDC were established. CRS presented moderate-to-excellent within-day reliability (ICC 1,3  ≥ 0.51; P < .05) and moderate-to-good between-days reliability (ICC 1,2  ≥ 0.47; P < .05) for most locations. Negligible-to-moderate correlations with FEV 1 %predicted were found (-0.53 < r s  < -0.28; P < .05), and the inspiratory number of crackles were the best discriminator between mild-to-moderate and severe-to-very severe airflow limitations (area under the curve >0.78). CRS correlated poorly with patient-reported outcomes (r s  < 0.48; P < .05) and did not predict exacerbations. Inspiratory number of crackles at posterior right chest, inspiratory F50 at trachea and anterior left chest and expiratory Imax at anterior right chest were simultaneously reliable and valid, and their MDC were 2.41, 55.27, 29.55 and 3.98, respectively. CRS are reliable and valid. Their use, integrated with other clinical and patient-reported measures, may fill the gap of assessing small airways and contribute toward a patient's comprehensive evaluation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Do Current German-Language Intelligence Tests Take into Consideration the Special Needs of Children with Disabilities?].

PubMed

Mickley, Manfred; Renner, Gerolf

2015-01-01

Do Current German-Language Intelligence Tests Take into Consideration the Special Needs of Children with Disabilities? A review of 23 German intelligence test manuals shows that test-authors do not exclude the use of their tests for children with disabilities. However, these special groups play a minor role in the construction, standardization, and validation of intelligence tests. There is no sufficient discussion and reflection concerning the issue which construct-irrelevant requirements may reduce the validity of the test or which individual test-adaptations are allowed or recommended. Intelligence testing of children with disabilities needs more empirical evidence on objectivity, reliability, and validity of the assessment-procedures employed. Future test construction and validation should systematically analyze construct-irrelevant variance in item format, the special needs of handicapped children, and should give hints for useful test-adaptations.

Catchment-scale groundwater recharge and vegetation water use efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troch, P. A. A.; Dwivedi, R.; Liu, T.; Meira, A.; Roy, T.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Durcik, M.; Arciniega, S.; Brena-Naranjo, J. A.

2017-12-01

Precipitation undergoes a two-step partitioning when it falls on the land surface. At the land surface and in the shallow subsurface, rainfall or snowmelt can either runoff as infiltration/saturation excess or quick subsurface flow. The rest will be stored temporarily in the root zone. From the root zone, water can leave the catchment as evapotranspiration or percolate further and recharge deep storage (e.g. fractured bedrock aquifer). Quantifying the average amount of water that recharges deep storage and sustains low flows is extremely challenging, as we lack reliable methods to quantify this flux at the catchment scale. It was recently shown, however, that for semi-arid catchments in Mexico, an index of vegetation water use efficiency, i.e. the Horton index (HI), could predict deep storage dynamics. Here we test this finding using 247 MOPEX catchments across the conterminous US, including energy-limited catchments. Our results show that the observed HI is indeed a reliable predictor of deep storage dynamics in space and time. We further investigate whether the HI can also predict average recharge rates across the conterminous US. We find that the HI can reliably predict the average recharge rate, estimated from the 50th percentile flow of the flow duration curve. Our results compare favorably with estimates of average recharge rates from the US Geological Survey. Previous research has shown that HI can be reliably estimated based on aridity index, mean slope and mean elevation of a catchment (Voepel et al., 2011). We recalibrated Voepel's model and used it to predict the HI for our 247 catchments. We then used these predicted values of the HI to estimate average recharge rates for our catchments, and compared them with those estimated from observed HI. We find that the accuracies of our predictions based on observed and predicted HI are similar. This provides an estimation method of catchment-scale average recharge rates based on easily derived catchment characteristics, such as climate and topography, and free of discharge measurements.

Special Issue: Big data and predictive computational modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutsourelakis, P. S.; Zabaras, N.; Girolami, M.

2016-09-01

The motivation for this special issue stems from the symposium on "Big Data and Predictive Computational Modeling" that took place at the Institute for Advanced Study, Technical University of Munich, during May 18-21, 2015. With a mindset firmly grounded in computational discovery, but a polychromatic set of viewpoints, several leading scientists, from physics and chemistry, biology, engineering, applied mathematics, scientific computing, neuroscience, statistics and machine learning, engaged in discussions and exchanged ideas for four days. This special issue contains a subset of the presentations. Video and slides of all the presentations are available on the TUM-IAS website http://www.tum-ias.de/bigdata2015/.

On the Simulation-Based Reliability of Complex Emergency Logistics Networks in Post-Accident Rescues.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Huang, Li; Liang, Xuedong

2018-01-06

This paper investigates the reliability of complex emergency logistics networks, as reliability is crucial to reducing environmental and public health losses in post-accident emergency rescues. Such networks' statistical characteristics are analyzed first. After the connected reliability and evaluation indices for complex emergency logistics networks are effectively defined, simulation analyses of network reliability are conducted under two different attack modes using a particular emergency logistics network as an example. The simulation analyses obtain the varying trends in emergency supply times and the ratio of effective nodes and validates the effects of network characteristics and different types of attacks on network reliability. The results demonstrate that this emergency logistics network is both a small-world and a scale-free network. When facing random attacks, the emergency logistics network steadily changes, whereas it is very fragile when facing selective attacks. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the protection of supply nodes and nodes with high connectivity. The simulation method provides a new tool for studying emergency logistics networks and a reference for similar studies.

On the Simulation-Based Reliability of Complex Emergency Logistics Networks in Post-Accident Rescues

PubMed Central

Wang, Wei; Huang, Li; Liang, Xuedong

2018-01-01

This paper investigates the reliability of complex emergency logistics networks, as reliability is crucial to reducing environmental and public health losses in post-accident emergency rescues. Such networks’ statistical characteristics are analyzed first. After the connected reliability and evaluation indices for complex emergency logistics networks are effectively defined, simulation analyses of network reliability are conducted under two different attack modes using a particular emergency logistics network as an example. The simulation analyses obtain the varying trends in emergency supply times and the ratio of effective nodes and validates the effects of network characteristics and different types of attacks on network reliability. The results demonstrate that this emergency logistics network is both a small-world and a scale-free network. When facing random attacks, the emergency logistics network steadily changes, whereas it is very fragile when facing selective attacks. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the protection of supply nodes and nodes with high connectivity. The simulation method provides a new tool for studying emergency logistics networks and a reference for similar studies. PMID:29316614

A GA based penalty function technique for solving constrained redundancy allocation problem of series system with interval valued reliability of components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, R. K.; Bhunia, A. K.; Roy, D.

2009-10-01

In this paper, we have considered the problem of constrained redundancy allocation of series system with interval valued reliability of components. For maximizing the overall system reliability under limited resource constraints, the problem is formulated as an unconstrained integer programming problem with interval coefficients by penalty function technique and solved by an advanced GA for integer variables with interval fitness function, tournament selection, uniform crossover, uniform mutation and elitism. As a special case, considering the lower and upper bounds of the interval valued reliabilities of the components to be the same, the corresponding problem has been solved. The model has been illustrated with some numerical examples and the results of the series redundancy allocation problem with fixed value of reliability of the components have been compared with the existing results available in the literature. Finally, sensitivity analyses have been shown graphically to study the stability of our developed GA with respect to the different GA parameters.

Reliability Modeling of Microelectromechanical Systems Using Neural Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perera. J. Sebastian

2000-01-01

Microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) are a broad and rapidly expanding field that is currently receiving a great deal of attention because of the potential to significantly improve the ability to sense, analyze, and control a variety of processes, such as heating and ventilation systems, automobiles, medicine, aeronautical flight, military surveillance, weather forecasting, and space exploration. MEMS are very small and are a blend of electrical and mechanical components, with electrical and mechanical systems on one chip. This research establishes reliability estimation and prediction for MEMS devices at the conceptual design phase using neural networks. At the conceptual design phase, before devices are built and tested, traditional methods of quantifying reliability are inadequate because the device is not in existence and cannot be tested to establish the reliability distributions. A novel approach using neural networks is created to predict the overall reliability of a MEMS device based on its components and each component's attributes. The methodology begins with collecting attribute data (fabrication process, physical specifications, operating environment, property characteristics, packaging, etc.) and reliability data for many types of microengines. The data are partitioned into training data (the majority) and validation data (the remainder). A neural network is applied to the training data (both attribute and reliability); the attributes become the system inputs and reliability data (cycles to failure), the system output. After the neural network is trained with sufficient data. the validation data are used to verify the neural networks provided accurate reliability estimates. Now, the reliability of a new proposed MEMS device can be estimated by using the appropriate trained neural networks developed in this work.

Reliability Estimation for Single-unit Ceramic Crown Restorations

PubMed Central

Lekesiz, H.

2014-01-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential of a survival prediction method for the assessment of ceramic dental restorations. For this purpose, fast-fracture and fatigue reliabilities for 2 bilayer (metal ceramic alloy core veneered with fluorapatite leucite glass-ceramic, d.Sign/d.Sign-67, by Ivoclar; glass-infiltrated alumina core veneered with feldspathic porcelain, VM7/In-Ceram Alumina, by Vita) and 3 monolithic (leucite-reinforced glass-ceramic, Empress, and ProCAD, by Ivoclar; lithium-disilicate glass-ceramic, Empress 2, by Ivoclar) single posterior crown restorations were predicted, and fatigue predictions were compared with the long-term clinical data presented in the literature. Both perfectly bonded and completely debonded cases were analyzed for evaluation of the influence of the adhesive/restoration bonding quality on estimations. Material constants and stress distributions required for predictions were calculated from biaxial tests and finite element analysis, respectively. Based on the predictions, In-Ceram Alumina presents the best fast-fracture resistance, and ProCAD presents a comparable resistance for perfect bonding; however, ProCAD shows a significant reduction of resistance in case of complete debonding. Nevertheless, it is still better than Empress and comparable with Empress 2. In-Ceram Alumina and d.Sign have the highest long-term reliability, with almost 100% survivability even after 10 years. When compared with clinical failure rates reported in the literature, predictions show a promising match with clinical data, and this indicates the soundness of the settings used in the proposed predictions. PMID:25048249

Trial application of reliability technology to emergency diesel generators at the Trojan Nuclear Power Plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wong, S.M.; Boccio, J.L.; Karimian, S.

1986-01-01

In this paper, a trial application of reliability technology to the emergency diesel generator system at the Trojan Nuclear Power Plant is presented. An approach for formulating a reliability program plan for this system is being developed. The trial application has shown that a reliability program process, using risk- and reliability-based techniques, can be interwoven into current plant operational activities to help in controlling, analyzing, and predicting faults that can challenge safety systems. With the cooperation of the utility, Portland General Electric Co., this reliability program can eventually be implemented at Trojan to track its effectiveness.

Predicting Incursion of Plant Invaders into Kruger National Park, South Africa: The Interplay of General Drivers and Species-Specific Factors

PubMed Central

Jarošík, Vojtěch; Pyšek, Petr; Foxcroft, Llewellyn C.; Richardson, David M.; Rouget, Mathieu; MacFadyen, Sandra

2011-01-01

Background Overcoming boundaries is crucial for incursion of alien plant species and their successful naturalization and invasion within protected areas. Previous work showed that in Kruger National Park, South Africa, this process can be quantified and that factors determining the incursion of invasive species can be identified and predicted confidently. Here we explore the similarity between determinants of incursions identified by the general model based on a multispecies assemblage, and those identified by species-specific models. We analyzed the presence and absence of six invasive plant species in 1.0×1.5 km segments along the border of the park as a function of environmental characteristics from outside and inside the KNP boundary, using two data-mining techniques: classification trees and random forests. Principal Findings The occurrence of Ageratum houstonianum, Chromolaena odorata, Xanthium strumarium, Argemone ochroleuca, Opuntia stricta and Lantana camara can be reliably predicted based on landscape characteristics identified by the general multispecies model, namely water runoff from surrounding watersheds and road density in a 10 km radius. The presence of main rivers and species-specific combinations of vegetation types are reliable predictors from inside the park. Conclusions The predictors from the outside and inside of the park are complementary, and are approximately equally reliable for explaining the presence/absence of current invaders; those from the inside are, however, more reliable for predicting future invasions. Landscape characteristics determined as crucial predictors from outside the KNP serve as guidelines for management to enact proactive interventions to manipulate landscape features near the KNP to prevent further incursions. Predictors from the inside the KNP can be used reliably to identify high-risk areas to improve the cost-effectiveness of management, to locate invasive plants and target them for eradication. PMID:22194893

Predicting incursion of plant invaders into Kruger National Park, South Africa: the interplay of general drivers and species-specific factors.

PubMed

Jarošík, Vojtěch; Pyšek, Petr; Foxcroft, Llewellyn C; Richardson, David M; Rouget, Mathieu; MacFadyen, Sandra

2011-01-01

Overcoming boundaries is crucial for incursion of alien plant species and their successful naturalization and invasion within protected areas. Previous work showed that in Kruger National Park, South Africa, this process can be quantified and that factors determining the incursion of invasive species can be identified and predicted confidently. Here we explore the similarity between determinants of incursions identified by the general model based on a multispecies assemblage, and those identified by species-specific models. We analyzed the presence and absence of six invasive plant species in 1.0×1.5 km segments along the border of the park as a function of environmental characteristics from outside and inside the KNP boundary, using two data-mining techniques: classification trees and random forests. The occurrence of Ageratum houstonianum, Chromolaena odorata, Xanthium strumarium, Argemone ochroleuca, Opuntia stricta and Lantana camara can be reliably predicted based on landscape characteristics identified by the general multispecies model, namely water runoff from surrounding watersheds and road density in a 10 km radius. The presence of main rivers and species-specific combinations of vegetation types are reliable predictors from inside the park. The predictors from the outside and inside of the park are complementary, and are approximately equally reliable for explaining the presence/absence of current invaders; those from the inside are, however, more reliable for predicting future invasions. Landscape characteristics determined as crucial predictors from outside the KNP serve as guidelines for management to enact proactive interventions to manipulate landscape features near the KNP to prevent further incursions. Predictors from the inside the KNP can be used reliably to identify high-risk areas to improve the cost-effectiveness of management, to locate invasive plants and target them for eradication.

An evidence-based decision assistance model for predicting training outcome in juvenile guide dogs.

PubMed

Harvey, Naomi D; Craigon, Peter J; Blythe, Simon A; England, Gary C W; Asher, Lucy

2017-01-01

Working dog organisations, such as Guide Dogs, need to regularly assess the behaviour of the dogs they train. In this study we developed a questionnaire-style behaviour assessment completed by training supervisors of juvenile guide dogs aged 5, 8 and 12 months old (n = 1,401), and evaluated aspects of its reliability and validity. Specifically, internal reliability, temporal consistency, construct validity, predictive criterion validity (comparing against later training outcome) and concurrent criterion validity (comparing against a standardised behaviour test) were evaluated. Thirty-nine questions were sourced either from previously published literature or created to meet requirements identified via Guide Dogs staff surveys and staff feedback. Internal reliability analyses revealed seven reliable and interpretable trait scales named according to the questions within them as: Adaptability; Body Sensitivity; Distractibility; Excitability; General Anxiety; Trainability and Stair Anxiety. Intra-individual temporal consistency of the scale scores between 5-8, 8-12 and 5-12 months was high. All scales excepting Body Sensitivity showed some degree of concurrent criterion validity. Predictive criterion validity was supported for all seven scales, since associations were found with training outcome, at at-least one age. Thresholds of z-scores on the scales were identified that were able to distinguish later training outcome by identifying 8.4% of all dogs withdrawn for behaviour and 8.5% of all qualified dogs, with 84% and 85% specificity. The questionnaire assessment was reliable and could detect traits that are consistent within individuals over time, despite juvenile dogs undergoing development during the study period. By applying thresholds to scores produced from the questionnaire this assessment could prove to be a highly valuable decision-making tool for Guide Dogs. This is the first questionnaire-style assessment of juvenile dogs that has shown value in predicting the training outcome of individual working dogs.

Rapid Measurement Of Asbestos Content Of Building Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weiss, James R.; Grove, Cindy I.; Hoover, Gordon L.; Stephens, James B.

1994-01-01

Portable instrument measures asbestos content of construction materials in place. Helps building renovators determine, quickly and accurately, whether asbestos is present. Concept readily adapted to special-purpose, battery-powered instrument. Contractor using such instrument could obtain reliable information on asbestos content in minutes.

A Probabilistic Approach for Reliability and Life Prediction of Electronics in Drilling and Evaluation Tools

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-23

A Probabilistic Approach for Reliability and Life Prediction of Electronics in Drilling and Evaluation Tools Amit A. Kale 1 , Katrina Carter...dielectric breakdown has been Amit Kale et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0...160.doi 10.1016/S0167- 4730(00)00005-9. BIOGRAPHIES Amit A. Kale was born in Bhopal, India on October 25 1978. He earned PhD in 2005 and MS in

The Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool: A Study of Reliability and Validity.

PubMed

Poe, Stephanie S; Dawson, Patricia B; Cvach, Maria; Burnett, Margaret; Kumble, Sowmya; Lewis, Maureen; Thompson, Carol B; Hill, Elizabeth E

Patient falls and fall-related injury remain a safety concern. The Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool (JHFRAT) was developed to facilitate early detection of risk for anticipated physiologic falls in adult inpatients. Psychometric properties in acute care settings have not yet been fully established; this study sought to fill that gap. Results indicate that the JHFRAT is reliable, with high sensitivity and negative predictive validity. Specificity and positive predictive validity were lower than expected.

The reliability-quality relationship for quality systems and quality risk management.

PubMed

Claycamp, H Gregg; Rahaman, Faiad; Urban, Jason M

2012-01-01

Engineering reliability typically refers to the probability that a system, or any of its components, will perform a required function for a stated period of time and under specified operating conditions. As such, reliability is inextricably linked with time-dependent quality concepts, such as maintaining a state of control and predicting the chances of losses from failures for quality risk management. Two popular current good manufacturing practice (cGMP) and quality risk management tools, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and root cause analysis (RCA) are examples of engineering reliability evaluations that link reliability with quality and risk. Current concepts in pharmaceutical quality and quality management systems call for more predictive systems for maintaining quality; yet, the current pharmaceutical manufacturing literature and guidelines are curiously silent on engineering quality. This commentary discusses the meaning of engineering reliability while linking the concept to quality systems and quality risk management. The essay also discusses the difference between engineering reliability and statistical (assay) reliability. The assurance of quality in a pharmaceutical product is no longer measured only "after the fact" of manufacturing. Rather, concepts of quality systems and quality risk management call for designing quality assurance into all stages of the pharmaceutical product life cycle. Interestingly, most assays for quality are essentially static and inform product quality over the life cycle only by being repeated over time. Engineering process reliability is the fundamental concept that is meant to anticipate quality failures over the life cycle of the product. Reliability is a well-developed theory and practice for other types of manufactured products and manufacturing processes. Thus, it is well known to be an appropriate index of manufactured product quality. This essay discusses the meaning of reliability and its linkages with quality systems and quality risk management.

The clinical value of adipokines in predicting the severity and outcome of acute pancreatitis.

PubMed

Karpavicius, Andrius; Dambrauskas, Zilvinas; Gradauskas, Audrius; Samuilis, Arturas; Zviniene, Kristina; Kupcinskas, Juozas; Brimas, Gintautas; Meckovski, Artur; Sileikis, Audrius; Strupas, Kestutis

2016-08-22

Recent data shows that patients with severe acute pancreatic might benefit from early intensive therapy, enteral nutrition and timely transfer to specialized centers. The early prophylactic use of antibiotics in AP remains controversial. The role and need for new markers in stratification of acute pancreatitis is also uncertain. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic usefulness of adipokines in prediction of the severity and outcome of acute pancreatitis (AP). Prospective study was conducted in four clinical centers. The diagnosis and severity assessment of AP was established according to the revised 2012 Atlanta classification. Adipokines, IL-6 and CRP levels were measured at admission and on 3rd day of hospital stay and compared with the control group. The predictive accuracy of each marker was measured by area under the receiver operating curve. Forty healthy controls and 102 patients were enrolled in to the study. Twenty seven (26.5 %) patients had mild, 55 (53.9 %) - moderate and 20 (19.6 %) - severe AP. Only resistin (cut-off value 13.7 ng/ml) and IL-6 (cut-off value 473.4 pg/ml) were reliable early markers of SAP. IL-6 with cut-off value of 157.0 pg/ml was a predictor of necrosis. The peripancreatic necrosis volume of 112.5 ml was a marker of SAP and 433.0 ml cut-off value could be used to predict the need of interventions. The prognostic value of adipokines in AP is limited. Only admission resistin levels could serve as an early predictor for SAP. The Lithuanian Regional Ethics Committee approved the study protocol (permission No. L-12-02/1/2/3/4) and all the patients and the control group provided written informed consent.

Ohio study shows that insurance coverage is critical for children with special health care needs as they transition to adulthood.

PubMed

Goudie, Anthony; Carle, Adam C

2011-12-01

Nearly 30 percent of young adults with special health care needs in Ohio lack health insurance, compared to 5 percent of the state's children with special health care needs. As children with such needs become too old for Medicaid or insurance through their parents' employer, they face great challenges in obtaining insurance. Lack of insurance is highly predictive of unmet needs, which in turn are predictive of costly hospital-based encounters. Young adults with special health care needs who are uninsured are more than twice as likely as their peers with insurance to forgo filling prescriptions and getting care and to have problems getting care. Even after insurance status is accounted for, young adults with special health care needs are more likely than children with such needs to not fill prescriptions because of cost and to delay or forgo needed care. This study demonstrates that continuous and adequate health insurance is vital to the continued well-being of children with special health care needs as they transition to young adulthood.

Optimum allocation of redundancy among subsystems connected in series. Ph.D. Thesis - Case Western Reserve Univ., Sep. 1970

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bien, D. D.

1973-01-01

This analysis considers the optimum allocation of redundancy in a system of serially connected subsystems in which each subsystem is of the k-out-of-n type. Redundancy is optimally allocated when: (1) reliability is maximized for given costs; or (2) costs are minimized for given reliability. Several techniques are presented for achieving optimum allocation and their relative merits are discussed. Approximate solutions in closed form were attainable only for the special case of series-parallel systems and the efficacy of these approximations is discussed.

Fabrication of capsule assemblies, phase 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keeton, A. R.; Stemann, L. G.

1973-01-01

Thirteen capsule assemblies were fabricated for evaluation of fuel pin design concepts for a fast spectrum lithium cooled compact space power reactor. These instrumented assemblies were designed for real time test of prototype fuel pins. Uranium mononitride fuel pins were encased in AISI 304L stainless steel capsules. Fabrication procedures were fully qualified by process development and assembly qualification tests. Instrumentation reliability was achieved utilizing specially processed and closely controlled thermocouple hot zone fabrication and by thermal screening tests. Overall capsule reliability was achieved with an all electron beam welded assembly.

Protein-Protein Interface Predictions by Data-Driven Methods: A Review

PubMed Central

Xue, Li C; Dobbs, Drena; Bonvin, Alexandre M.J.J.; Honavar, Vasant

2015-01-01

Reliably pinpointing which specific amino acid residues form the interface(s) between a protein and its binding partner(s) is critical for understanding the structural and physicochemical determinants of protein recognition and binding affinity, and has wide applications in modeling and validating protein interactions predicted by high-throughput methods, in engineering proteins, and in prioritizing drug targets. Here, we review the basic concepts, principles and recent advances in computational approaches to the analysis and prediction of protein-protein interfaces. We point out caveats for objectively evaluating interface predictors, and discuss various applications of data-driven interface predictors for improving energy model-driven protein-protein docking. Finally, we stress the importance of exploiting binding partner information in reliably predicting interfaces and highlight recent advances in this emerging direction. PMID:26460190

The validity and reliability of an iPhone app for measuring vertical jump performance.

PubMed

Balsalobre-Fernández, Carlos; Glaister, Mark; Lockey, Richard Anthony

2015-01-01

The purpose of this investigation was to analyse the concurrent validity and reliability of an iPhone app (called: My Jump) for measuring vertical jump performance. Twenty recreationally active healthy men (age: 22.1 ± 3.6 years) completed five maximal countermovement jumps, which were evaluated using a force platform (time in the air method) and a specially designed iPhone app. My jump was developed to calculate the jump height from flight time using the high-speed video recording facility on the iPhone 5 s. Jump heights of the 100 jumps measured, for both devices, were compared using the intraclass correlation coefficient, Pearson product moment correlation coefficient (r), Cronbach's alpha (α), coefficient of variation and Bland-Altman plots. There was almost perfect agreement between the force platform and My Jump for the countermovement jump height (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.997, P < 0.001; Bland-Altman bias = 1.1 ± 0.5 cm, P < 0.001). In comparison with the force platform, My Jump showed good validity for the CMJ height (r = 0.995, P < 0.001). The results of the present study showed that CMJ height can be easily, accurately and reliably evaluated using a specially developed iPhone 5 s app.

The comparison of predictive scheduling algorithms for different sizes of job shop scheduling problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paprocka, I.; Kempa, W. M.; Grabowik, C.; Kalinowski, K.; Krenczyk, D.

2016-08-01

In the paper a survey of predictive and reactive scheduling methods is done in order to evaluate how the ability of prediction of reliability characteristics influences over robustness criteria. The most important reliability characteristics are: Mean Time to Failure, Mean Time of Repair. Survey analysis is done for a job shop scheduling problem. The paper answers the question: what method generates robust schedules in the case of a bottleneck failure occurrence before, at the beginning of planned maintenance actions or after planned maintenance actions? Efficiency of predictive schedules is evaluated using criteria: makespan, total tardiness, flow time, idle time. Efficiency of reactive schedules is evaluated using: solution robustness criterion and quality robustness criterion. This paper is the continuation of the research conducted in the paper [1], where the survey of predictive and reactive scheduling methods is done only for small size scheduling problems.

Defining physicians' readiness to screen and manage intimate partner violence in Greek primary care settings.

PubMed

Papadakaki, Maria; Prokopiadou, Dimitra; Petridou, Eleni; Kogevinas, Manolis; Lionis, Christos

2012-06-01

The current article aims to translate the PREMIS (Physician Readiness to Manage Intimate Partner Violence) survey into the Greek language and test its validity and reliability in a sample of primary care physicians. The validation study was conducted in 2010 and involved all the general practitioners serving two adjacent prefectures of Greece (n = 80). Maximum-likelihood factor analysis (MLF) was used to extract key survey factors. The instrument was further assessed for the following psychometric properties: (a) scale reliability, (b) item-specific reliability, (c) test-retest reliability, (d) scale construct validity, and (e) internal predictive validity. The MLF analysis of 23 opinion items revealed a seven-factor solution (preparation, constraint, workplace issues, screening, self-efficacy, alcohol/drugs, victim understanding), which was statistically sound (p = .293). Most of the newly derived scales displayed satisfactory internal consistency (α ≥ .60), high item-specific reliability, strong construct, and internal predictive validity (F = 2.82; p = .004), and high repeatability when retested with 20 individuals (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] > .70). The tool was found appropriate to facilitate the identification of competence deficits and the evaluation of training initiatives.

[Training of interviewers in the utilization of standardized questionnaires in psychiatry: studies realized with the Present State Examination (PSE)].

PubMed

Lesage, A D; Cyr, M; Toupin, J; Cormier, H; Valiquette, C

1991-01-01

Interview questionnaires offer more validity than self-administered format in exploring psychopathological or psychosocial phenomena of interest in psychiatric research. If used, special care needs to be paid to interviewers' training and ensuring that they maintain their reliability. No widespread training standards exist and each schedule may carry its own procedure. Our aims are to indicate how we trained interviewers with the French version of the Present State Examination (Wing, Cooper and Sartorius, 1974) and how we checked and kept acceptable interraters reliability during one study. We will provide data on the interraters reliability during the training and the study, as well as the test-retest reliability. These results will be used to support some guidelines when using this sort of psychiatric research questionnaires in order to ensure comparability both within the study and between studies.

Special Issue on a Fault Tolerant Network on Chip Architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janidarmian, Majid; Tinati, Melika; Khademzadeh, Ahmad; Ghavibazou, Maryam; Fekr, Atena Roshan

2010-06-01

In this paper a fast and efficient spare switch selection algorithm is presented in a reliable NoC architecture based on specific application mapped onto mesh topology called FERNA. Based on ring concept used in FERNA, this algorithm achieves best results equivalent to exhaustive algorithm with much less run time improving two parameters. Inputs of FERNA algorithm for response time of the system and extra communication cost minimization are derived from simulation of high transaction level using SystemC TLM and mathematical formulation, respectively. The results demonstrate that improvement of above mentioned parameters lead to advance whole system reliability that is analytically calculated. Mapping algorithm has been also investigated as an effective issue on extra bandwidth requirement and system reliability.

Probabilistic Analysis of Aircraft Gas Turbine Disk Life and Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melis, Matthew E.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; August, Richard

1999-01-01

Two series of low cycle fatigue (LCF) test data for two groups of different aircraft gas turbine engine compressor disk geometries were reanalyzed and compared using Weibull statistics. Both groups of disks were manufactured from titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy. A NASA Glenn Research Center developed probabilistic computer code Probable Cause was used to predict disk life and reliability. A material-life factor A was determined for titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy based upon fatigue disk data and successfully applied to predict the life of the disks as a function of speed. A comparison was made with the currently used life prediction method based upon crack growth rate. Applying an endurance limit to the computer code did not significantly affect the predicted lives under engine operating conditions. Failure location prediction correlates with those experimentally observed in the LCF tests. A reasonable correlation was obtained between the predicted disk lives using the Probable Cause code and a modified crack growth method for life prediction. Both methods slightly overpredict life for one disk group and significantly under predict it for the other.

Biomic specialization and speciation rates in ruminants (Cetartiodactyla, Mammalia): a test of the resource-use hypothesis at the global scale.

PubMed

Cantalapiedra, Juan L; Hernández Fernández, Manuel; Morales, Jorge

2011-01-01

The resource-use hypothesis proposed by E.S. Vrba predicts that specialist species have higher speciation and extinction rates than generalists because they are more susceptible to environmental changes and vicariance. In this work, we test some of the predictions derived from this hypothesis on the 197 extant and recently extinct species of Ruminantia (Cetartiodactyla, Mammalia) using the biomic specialization index (BSI) of each species, which is based on its distribution within different biomes. We ran 10000 Monte Carlo simulations of our data in order to get a null distribution of BSI values against which to contrast the observed data. Additionally, we drew on a supertree of the ruminants and a phylogenetic likelihood-based method (QuaSSE) for testing whether the degree of biomic specialization affects speciation rates in ruminant lineages. Our results are consistent with the predictions of the resource-use hypothesis, which foretells a higher speciation rate of lineages restricted to a single biome (BSI = 1) and higher frequency of specialist species in biomes that underwent high degree of contraction and fragmentation during climatic cycles. Bovids and deer present differential specialization across biomes; cervids show higher specialization in biomes with a marked hydric seasonality (tropical deciduous woodlands and schlerophyllous woodlands), while bovids present higher specialization in a greater variety of biomes. This might be the result of divergent physiological constraints as well as a different biogeographic and evolutionary history.

Biomic Specialization and Speciation Rates in Ruminants (Cetartiodactyla, Mammalia): A Test of the Resource-Use Hypothesis at the Global Scale

PubMed Central

Cantalapiedra, Juan L.; Hernández Fernández, Manuel; Morales, Jorge

2011-01-01

The resource-use hypothesis proposed by E.S. Vrba predicts that specialist species have higher speciation and extinction rates than generalists because they are more susceptible to environmental changes and vicariance. In this work, we test some of the predictions derived from this hypothesis on the 197 extant and recently extinct species of Ruminantia (Cetartiodactyla, Mammalia) using the biomic specialization index (BSI) of each species, which is based on its distribution within different biomes. We ran 10000 Monte Carlo simulations of our data in order to get a null distribution of BSI values against which to contrast the observed data. Additionally, we drew on a supertree of the ruminants and a phylogenetic likelihood-based method (QuaSSE) for testing whether the degree of biomic specialization affects speciation rates in ruminant lineages. Our results are consistent with the predictions of the resource-use hypothesis, which foretells a higher speciation rate of lineages restricted to a single biome (BSI = 1) and higher frequency of specialist species in biomes that underwent high degree of contraction and fragmentation during climatic cycles. Bovids and deer present differential specialization across biomes; cervids show higher specialization in biomes with a marked hydric seasonality (tropical deciduous woodlands and schlerophyllous woodlands), while bovids present higher specialization in a greater variety of biomes. This might be the result of divergent physiological constraints as well as a different biogeographic and evolutionary history. PMID:22174888

Shuttle Wing Leading Edge Root Cause NDE Team Findings and Implementation of Quantitative Flash Infrared Thermography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burke, Eric R.

2009-01-01

Comparison metrics can be established to reliably and repeatedly establish the health of the joggle region of the Orbiter Wing Leading Edge reinforced carbon carbon (RCC) panels. Using these metrics can greatly reduced the man hours needed to perform, wing leading edge scanning for service induced damage. These time savings have allowed for more thorough inspections to be preformed in the necessary areas with out affecting orbiter flow schedule. Using specialized local inspections allows for a larger margin of safety by allowing for more complete characterizations of panel defects. The presence of the t-seal during thermographic inspection can have adverse masking affects on ability properly characterize defects that exist in the joggle region of the RCC panels. This masking affect dictates the final specialized inspection should be preformed with the t-seal removed. Removal of the t-seal and use of the higher magnification optics has lead to the most effective and repeatable inspection method for characterizing and tracking defects in the wing leading edge. Through this study some inadequacies in the main health monitoring system for the orbiter wing leading edge have been identified and corrected. The use of metrics and local specialized inspection have lead to a greatly increased reliability and repeatable inspection of the shuttle wing leading edge.

A REVIEW OF SINGLE SPECIES TOXICITY TESTS: ARE THE TESTS RELIABLE PREDICTORS OF AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM COMMUNITY RESPONSES?

EPA Science Inventory

This document provides a comprehensive review to evaluate the reliability of indicator species toxicity test results in predicting aquatic ecosystem impacts, also called the ecological relevance of laboratory single species toxicity tests.

Validation of urban freeway models. [supporting datasets

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-01-01

The goal of the SHRP 2 Project L33 Validation of Urban Freeway Models was to assess and enhance the predictive travel time reliability models developed in the SHRP 2 Project L03, Analytic Procedures for Determining the Impacts of Reliability Mitigati...

Flower power: tree flowering phenology as a settlement cue for migrating birds.

PubMed

McGrath, Laura J; van Riper, Charles; Fontaine, Joseph J

2009-01-01

1. Neotropical migrant birds show a clear preference for stopover habitats with ample food supplies; yet, the proximate cues underlying these decisions remain unclear. 2. For insectivorous migrants, cues associated with vegetative phenology (e.g. flowering, leaf flush, and leaf loss) may reliably predict the availability of herbivorous arthropods. Here we examined whether migrants use the phenology of five tree species to choose stopover locations, and whether phenology accurately predicts food availability. 3. Using a combination of experimental and observational evidence, we show migrant populations closely track tree phenology, particularly the flowering phenology of honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa), and preferentially forage in trees with more flowers. Furthermore, the flowering phenology of honey mesquite reliably predicts overall arthropod abundance as well as the arthropods preferred by migrants for food. 4. Together, these results suggest that honey mesquite flowering phenology is an important cue used by migrants to assess food availability quickly and reliably, while in transit during spring migration.

Flower power: Tree flowering phenology as a settlement cue for migrating birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGrath, L.J.; van Riper, Charles; Fontaine, J.J.

2009-01-01

1. Neotropical migrant birds show a clear preference for stopover habitats with ample food supplies; yet, the proximate cues underlying these decisions remain unclear. 2. For insectivorous migrants, cues associated with vegetative phenology (e.g. flowering, leaf flush, and leaf loss) may reliably predict the availability of herbivorous arthropods. Here we examined whether migrants use the phenology of five tree species to choose stopover locations, and whether phenology accurately predicts food availability. 3. Using a combination of experimental and observational evidence, we show migrant populations closely track tree phenology, particularly the flowering phenology of honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa), and preferentially forage in trees with more flowers. Furthermore, the flowering phenology of honey mesquite reliably predicts overall arthropod abundance as well as the arthropods preferred by migrants for food. 4. Together, these results suggest that honey mesquite flowering phenology is an important cue used by migrants to assess food availability quickly and reliably, while in transit during spring migration. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Validation of the 4P's Plus screen for substance use in pregnancy validation of the 4P's Plus.

PubMed

Chasnoff, I J; Wells, A M; McGourty, R F; Bailey, L K

2007-12-01

The purpose of this study is to validate the 4P's Plus screen for substance use in pregnancy. A total of 228 pregnant women enrolled in prenatal care underwent screening with the 4P's Plus and received a follow-up clinical assessment for substance use. Statistical analyses regarding reliability, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive validity of the 4Ps Plus were conducted. The overall reliability for the five-item measure was 0.62. Seventy-four (32.5%) of the women had a positive screen. Sensitivity and specificity were very good, at 87 and 76%, respectively. Positive predictive validity was low (36%), but negative predictive validity was quite high (97%). Of the 31 women who had a positive clinical assessment, 45% were using less than 1 day per week. The 4P's Plus reliably and effectively screens pregnant women for risk of substance use, including those women typically missed by other perinatal screening methodologies.

Predicting wettability behavior of fluorosilica coated metal surface using optimum neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taghipour-Gorjikolaie, Mehran; Valipour Motlagh, Naser

2018-02-01

The interaction between variables, which are effective on the surface wettability, is very complex to predict the contact angles and sliding angles of liquid drops. In this paper, in order to solve this complexity, artificial neural network was used to develop reliable models for predicting the angles of liquid drops. Experimental data are divided into training data and testing data. By using training data and feed forward structure for the neural network and using particle swarm optimization for training the neural network based models, the optimum models were developed. The obtained results showed that regression index for the proposed models for the contact angles and sliding angles are 0.9874 and 0.9920, respectively. As it can be seen, these values are close to unit and it means the reliable performance of the models. Also, it can be inferred from the results that the proposed model have more reliable performance than multi-layer perceptron and radial basis function based models.

Predictive models of safety based on audit findings: Part 1: Model development and reliability.

PubMed

Hsiao, Yu-Lin; Drury, Colin; Wu, Changxu; Paquet, Victor

2013-03-01

This consecutive study was aimed at the quantitative validation of safety audit tools as predictors of safety performance, as we were unable to find prior studies that tested audit validity against safety outcomes. An aviation maintenance domain was chosen for this work as both audits and safety outcomes are currently prescribed and regulated. In Part 1, we developed a Human Factors/Ergonomics classification framework based on HFACS model (Shappell and Wiegmann, 2001a,b), for the human errors detected by audits, because merely counting audit findings did not predict future safety. The framework was tested for measurement reliability using four participants, two of whom classified errors on 1238 audit reports. Kappa values leveled out after about 200 audits at between 0.5 and 0.8 for different tiers of errors categories. This showed sufficient reliability to proceed with prediction validity testing in Part 2. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Developing a novel hierarchical approach for multiscale structural reliability predictions for ultra-high consequence applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Emery, John M.; Coffin, Peter; Robbins, Brian A.

Microstructural variabilities are among the predominant sources of uncertainty in structural performance and reliability. We seek to develop efficient algorithms for multiscale calcu- lations for polycrystalline alloys such as aluminum alloy 6061-T6 in environments where ductile fracture is the dominant failure mode. Our approach employs concurrent multiscale methods, but does not focus on their development. They are a necessary but not sufficient ingredient to multiscale reliability predictions. We have focused on how to efficiently use concurrent models for forward propagation because practical applications cannot include fine-scale details throughout the problem domain due to exorbitant computational demand. Our approach begins withmore » a low-fidelity prediction at the engineering scale that is sub- sequently refined with multiscale simulation. The results presented in this report focus on plasticity and damage at the meso-scale, efforts to expedite Monte Carlo simulation with mi- crostructural considerations, modeling aspects regarding geometric representation of grains and second-phase particles, and contrasting algorithms for scale coupling.« less

The Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Stalking Risk Profile.

PubMed

McEwan, Troy E; Shea, Daniel E; Daffern, Michael; MacKenzie, Rachel D; Ogloff, James R P; Mullen, Paul E

2018-03-01

This study assessed the reliability and validity of the Stalking Risk Profile (SRP), a structured measure for assessing stalking risks. The SRP was administered at the point of assessment or retrospectively from file review for 241 adult stalkers (91% male) referred to a community-based forensic mental health service. Interrater reliability was high for stalker type, and moderate-to-substantial for risk judgments and domain scores. Evidence for predictive validity and discrimination between stalking recidivists and nonrecidivists for risk judgments depended on follow-up duration. Discrimination was moderate (area under the curve = 0.66-0.68) and positive and negative predictive values good over the full follow-up period ( Mdn = 170.43 weeks). At 6 months, discrimination was better than chance only for judgments related to stalking of new victims (area under the curve = 0.75); however, high-risk stalkers still reoffended against their original victim(s) 2 to 4 times as often as low-risk stalkers. Implications for the clinical utility and refinement of the SRP are discussed.

Illustrated structural application of universal first-order reliability method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verderaime, V.

1994-01-01

The general application of the proposed first-order reliability method was achieved through the universal normalization of engineering probability distribution data. The method superimposes prevailing deterministic techniques and practices on the first-order reliability method to surmount deficiencies of the deterministic method and provide benefits of reliability techniques and predictions. A reliability design factor is derived from the reliability criterion to satisfy a specified reliability and is analogous to the deterministic safety factor. Its application is numerically illustrated on several practical structural design and verification cases with interesting results and insights. Two concepts of reliability selection criteria are suggested. Though the method was developed to support affordable structures for access to space, the method should also be applicable for most high-performance air and surface transportation systems.

Storage reliability analysis summary report. Volume 2: Electro mechanical devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, H. B., Jr.; Krulac, I. L.

1982-09-01

This document summarizes storage reliability data collected by the US Army Missile Command on electro-mechanical devices over a period of several years. Sources of data are detailed, major failure modes and mechanisms are listed and discussed. Non-operational failure rate prediction methodology is given, and conclusions and recommendations for enhancing the storage reliability of devices are drawn from the analysis of collected data.

RELIABILITY, AVAILABILITY, AND SERVICEABILITY FOR PETASCALE HIGH-END COMPUTING AND BEYOND

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chokchai "Box" Leangsuksun

2011-05-31

Our project is a multi-institutional research effort that adopts interplay of RELIABILITY, AVAILABILITY, and SERVICEABILITY (RAS) aspects for solving resilience issues in highend scientific computing in the next generation of supercomputers. results lie in the following tracks: Failure prediction in a large scale HPC; Investigate reliability issues and mitigation techniques including in GPGPU-based HPC system; HPC resilience runtime & tools.

The Watch-and-Wait Task: On the Reliability and Validity of a New Method of Assessing Self-Control in Preschool Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neubauer, Anna; Gawrilow, Caterina; Hasselhorn, Marcus

2012-01-01

A preschooler's ability to delay gratification in the waiting task is predictive of several developmental outcomes, despite this task's relatively low reliability level. Success in this task depends on the use of distraction strategies. The new Watch-and-Wait Task (WWT) has been developed to enhance reliability and to investigate whether the…

A specialized plug-in software module for computer-aided quantitative measurement of medical images.

PubMed

Wang, Q; Zeng, Y J; Huo, P; Hu, J L; Zhang, J H

2003-12-01

This paper presents a specialized system for quantitative measurement of medical images. Using Visual C++, we developed a computer-aided software based on Image-Pro Plus (IPP), a software development platform. When transferred to the hard disk of a computer by an MVPCI-V3A frame grabber, medical images can be automatically processed by our own IPP plug-in for immunohistochemical analysis, cytomorphological measurement and blood vessel segmentation. In 34 clinical studies, the system has shown its high stability, reliability and ease of utility.

From hemodynamic towards cardiomechanic sensors in implantable devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferek-Petric, Bozidar

2013-06-01

Sensor could significantly improve the cardiac electrotherapy. It has to provide long-term stabile signal not impeding the device longevity and lead reliability. It may not introduce special implantation and adjustment procedures. Hemodynamic sensors based on the blood flow velocity and cardiomechanic sensors based on the lead bending measurement are disclosed. These sensors have a broad clinical utility. Triboelectric and high-frequency lead bending sensors yield accurate and stable signals whereby functioning with every cardiac lead. Moreover, high frequency measurement avoids use of any kind of special hardware mounted on the cardiac lead.

Multi-model ensemble hydrologic prediction using Bayesian model averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Qingyun; Ajami, Newsha K.; Gao, Xiaogang; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2007-05-01

Multi-model ensemble strategy is a means to exploit the diversity of skillful predictions from different models. This paper studies the use of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme to develop more skillful and reliable probabilistic hydrologic predictions from multiple competing predictions made by several hydrologic models. BMA is a statistical procedure that infers consensus predictions by weighing individual predictions based on their probabilistic likelihood measures, with the better performing predictions receiving higher weights than the worse performing ones. Furthermore, BMA provides a more reliable description of the total predictive uncertainty than the original ensemble, leading to a sharper and better calibrated probability density function (PDF) for the probabilistic predictions. In this study, a nine-member ensemble of hydrologic predictions was used to test and evaluate the BMA scheme. This ensemble was generated by calibrating three different hydrologic models using three distinct objective functions. These objective functions were chosen in a way that forces the models to capture certain aspects of the hydrograph well (e.g., peaks, mid-flows and low flows). Two sets of numerical experiments were carried out on three test basins in the US to explore the best way of using the BMA scheme. In the first set, a single set of BMA weights was computed to obtain BMA predictions, while the second set employed multiple sets of weights, with distinct sets corresponding to different flow intervals. In both sets, the streamflow values were transformed using Box-Cox transformation to ensure that the probability distribution of the prediction errors is approximately Gaussian. A split sample approach was used to obtain and validate the BMA predictions. The test results showed that BMA scheme has the advantage of generating more skillful and equally reliable probabilistic predictions than original ensemble. The performance of the expected BMA predictions in terms of daily root mean square error (DRMS) and daily absolute mean error (DABS) is generally superior to that of the best individual predictions. Furthermore, the BMA predictions employing multiple sets of weights are generally better than those using single set of weights.

32 CFR 644.45 - Rental value.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... provided. Military necessity has required the construction of many plants which are designed for special... absence of comparable rentals of similar properties or other reliable comparative guides to value for... for the full capacity of an industrial plant as originally designed, and that this method will serve...

32 CFR 644.45 - Rental value.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... provided. Military necessity has required the construction of many plants which are designed for special... absence of comparable rentals of similar properties or other reliable comparative guides to value for... for the full capacity of an industrial plant as originally designed, and that this method will serve...

32 CFR 644.45 - Rental value.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... provided. Military necessity has required the construction of many plants which are designed for special... absence of comparable rentals of similar properties or other reliable comparative guides to value for... for the full capacity of an industrial plant as originally designed, and that this method will serve...

32 CFR 644.45 - Rental value.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... provided. Military necessity has required the construction of many plants which are designed for special... absence of comparable rentals of similar properties or other reliable comparative guides to value for... for the full capacity of an industrial plant as originally designed, and that this method will serve...

32 CFR 644.45 - Rental value.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... provided. Military necessity has required the construction of many plants which are designed for special... absence of comparable rentals of similar properties or other reliable comparative guides to value for... for the full capacity of an industrial plant as originally designed, and that this method will serve...

Hot and Cold Ethnicities: Modes of Ethnolinguistic Vitality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ehala, Martin

2011-01-01

The paper presents the summary of the special issue of "JMMD" "Ethnolinguistic vitality". The volume shows convincingly that ethnolinguistic vitality perceptions as measured by standard methodology such as the Subjective Ethnolinguistic Vitality Questionnaires (SEVQ) are not reliable indicators of actual vitality. Evidence that ethnolinguistic…

76 FR 38134 - Final Priorities; Disability and Rehabilitation Research Projects and Centers Program-Disability...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-29

...-identified research designs to generate reliable and valid findings. Changes: None. Final Priorities Priority... DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION Final Priorities; Disability and Rehabilitation Research Projects and Centers Program--Disability Rehabilitation Research Projects, etc. AGENCY: Office of Special Education and...

Finding Non-Commercial Tests. ERIC Digest No. 110.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crosby-Muilenburg, Corryn

This digest lists guides to non-commercial tests and compilations of such tests to help identify potentially useful non-commercial tests and assessment instruments to measure special characteristics of students. Reliability and validity information is frequently available. The guides reviewed include: (1) "Measures for Psychological…

Yi Guo | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Yi is dedicated to research and development in dynamic modeling, reliability analysis, vibro systems and has published numerous impactful journal publications. Prior to NREL, she pursued her Ph.D . research at Ohio State University with specialization in dynamics, vibration, and acoustics of wind turbine

Problem Solving with Guided Repeated Oral Reading Instruction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conderman, Greg; Strobel, Debra

2006-01-01

Many students with disabilities require specialized instructional interventions and frequent progress monitoring in reading. The guided repeated oral reading technique promotes oral reading fluency while providing a reliable data-based monitoring system. This article emphasizes the importance of problem-solving when using this reading approach.

Miniature sheathed thermocouples for turbine blade temperature measurement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holanda, R.; Glawe, G. E.; Krause, L. N.

1974-01-01

An investigation was made of sheathed thermocouples for turbine blade temperature measurements. Tests were performed on the Chromel-Alumel sheathed thermocouples with both two-wire and single-wire configurations. Sheath diameters ranged from 0.25 to 0.76 mm, and temperatures ranged from 1080 to 1250 K. Both steady-state and thermal cycling tests were performed for times up to 450 hr. Special-order and commercial-grade thermocouples were tested. The tests showed that special-order single-wire sheathed thermocouples can be obtained that are reliable and accurate with diameters as small as 0.25 mm. However, all samples of 0.25-mm-diameter sheathed commercial-grade two-wire and single-wire thermocouples that were tested showed unacceptable drift rates for long-duration engine testing programs. The drift rates were about 1 percent in 10 hr. A thermocouple drift test is recommended in addition to the normal acceptance tests in order to select reliable miniature sheathed thermocouples for turbine blade applications.

Eastern Siberia terrain intelligence

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1942-01-01

The following folio of terrain intelligence maps, charts and explanatory tables represent an attempt to bring together available data on natural physical conditions such as will affect military operations in Eastern Siberia. The area covered is the easternmost section of the U.S.S.R.; that is the area east of the Yenisei River. Each map and accompanying table is devoted· to a specialized set of problems; together they cover such subjects as geology, construction materials, mineral fuels, terrain, water supply, rivers and climate. The data is somewhat generalized due to the scale of treatment as well as to the scarcity of basic data. Each of the maps are rated as to reliability according to the reliability scale on the following page. Considerable of the data shown is of an interpretative nature, although precise data from literature was used wherever possible. The maps and tables were compiled  by a special group from the United States Geological Survey in cooperation with the Intelligence Branch of the Office, Chief of Engineers, War Department.

[A modified intracellular labelling technique for high-resolution staining of neuron in 500 microm-thickness brain slice].

PubMed

Zhao, Ming-liang; Liu, Guo-long; Sui, Jian-feng; Ruan, Huai-zhen; Xiong, Ying

2007-05-01

To develop simple but reliable intracellular labelling method for high-resolution visualization of the fine structure of single neurons in brain slice with thickness of 500 microm. Biocytin was introduced into neurons in 500 microm-thickness brain slices while blind whole cell recording. Following processed for histochemistry using the avidin-biotin-complex method, stained slices were mounted in glycerol on special glass slides. Labelled cells were digital photomicrographed every 30 microm and reconstructed with Adobe Photoshop software. After histochemistry, limited background staining was produced. The resolution was so high that fine structure, including branching, termination of individual axons and even spines of neurons could be identified in exquisite detail with optic microscope. With the help of software, the neurons of interest could be reconstructed from a stack of photomicrographs. The modified method provides an easy and reliable approach to revealing the detailed morphological properties of single neurons in 500 microm-thickness brain slice. Without requisition of special equipment, it is suited to be broadly applied.

Structural Health Monitoring for a Z-Type Special Vehicle

PubMed Central

Yuan, Chaolin; Ren, Liang; Li, Hongnan

2017-01-01

Nowadays there exist various kinds of special vehicles designed for some purposes, which are different from regular vehicles in overall dimension and design. In that case, accidents such as overturning will lead to large economical loss and casualties. There are still no technical specifications to follow to ensure the safe operation and driving of these special vehicles. Owing to the poor efficiency of regular maintenance, it is more feasible and effective to apply real-time monitoring during the operation and driving process. In this paper, the fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors are used to monitor the safety of a z-type special vehicle. Based on the structural features and force distribution, a reasonable structural health monitoring (SHM) scheme is presented. Comparing the monitoring results with the finite element simulation results guarantees the accuracy and reliability of the monitoring results. Large amounts of data are collected during the operation and driving progress to evaluate the structural safety condition and provide reference for SHM systems developed for other special vehicles. PMID:28587161

Use of Landsat data to predict the trophic state of Minnesota lakes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lillesand, T. M.; Johnson, W. L.; Deuell, R. L.; Lindstrom, O. M.; Meisner, D. E.

1983-01-01

Near-concurrent Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and ground data were obtained for 60 lakes distributed in two Landsat scene areas. The ground data included measurement of secchi disk depth, chlorophyll-a, total phosphorous, turbidity, color, and total nitrogen, as well as Carlson Trophic State Index (TSI) values derived from the first three parameters. The Landsat data best correlated with the TSI values. Prediction models were developed to classify some 100 'test' lakes appearing in the two analysis scenes on the basis of TSI estimates. Clouds, wind, poor image data, small lake size, and shallow lake depth caused some problems in lake TSI prediction. Overall, however, the Landsat-predicted TSI estimates were judged to be very reliable for the secchi-derived TSI estimation, moderately reliable for prediction of the chlorophyll-a TSI, and unreliable for the phosphorous value. Numerous Landsat data extraction procedures were compared, and the success of the Landsat TSI prediction models was a strong function of the procedure employed.

Validation of behave fire behavior predictions in oak savannas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grabner, Keith W.; Dwyer, John; Cutter, Bruce E.

1997-01-01

Prescribed fire is a valuable tool in the restoration and management of oak savannas. BEHAVE, a fire behavior prediction system developed by the United States Forest Service, can be a useful tool when managing oak savannas with prescribed fire. BEHAVE predictions of fire rate-of-spread and flame length were validated using four standardized fuel models: Fuel Model 1 (short grass), Fuel Model 2 (timber and grass), Fuel Model 3 (tall grass), and Fuel Model 9 (hardwood litter). Also, a customized oak savanna fuel model (COSFM) was created and validated. Results indicate that standardized fuel model 2 and the COSFM reliably estimate mean rate-of-spread (MROS). The COSFM did not appreciably reduce MROS variation when compared to fuel model 2. Fuel models 1, 3, and 9 did not reliably predict MROS. Neither the standardized fuel models nor the COSFM adequately predicted flame lengths. We concluded that standardized fuel model 2 should be used with BEHAVE when predicting fire rates-of-spread in established oak savannas.

Reliability Assessment of Graphite Specimens under Multiaxial Stresses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sookdeo, Steven; Nemeth, Noel N.; Bratton, Robert L.

2008-01-01

An investigation was conducted to predict the failure strength response of IG-100 nuclear grade graphite exposed to multiaxial stresses. As part of this effort, a review of failure criteria accounting for the stochastic strength response is provided. The experimental work was performed in the early 1990s at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) on hollow graphite tubes under the action of axial tensile loading and internal pressurization. As part of the investigation, finite-element analysis (FEA) was performed and compared with results of FEA from the original ORNL report. The new analysis generally compared well with the original analysis, although some discrepancies in the location of peak stresses was noted. The Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life prediction code (CARES/Life) was used with the FEA results to predict the quadrants I (tensile-tensile) and quadrant IV (compression-tension) strength response of the graphite tubes for the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging (NSA), and the Batdorf multiaxial failure theories. The CARES/Life reliability analysis showed that all three failure theories gave similar results in quadrant I but that in quadrant IV, the PIA and Weibull normal stress-averaging theories were not conservative, whereas the Batdorf theory was able to correlate well with experimental results. The conclusion of the study was that the Batdorf theory should generally be used to predict the reliability response of graphite and brittle materials in multiaxial loading situations.

Cross-organism learning method to discover new gene functionalities.

PubMed

Domeniconi, Giacomo; Masseroli, Marco; Moro, Gianluca; Pinoli, Pietro

2016-04-01

Knowledge of gene and protein functions is paramount for the understanding of physiological and pathological biological processes, as well as in the development of new drugs and therapies. Analyses for biomedical knowledge discovery greatly benefit from the availability of gene and protein functional feature descriptions expressed through controlled terminologies and ontologies, i.e., of gene and protein biomedical controlled annotations. In the last years, several databases of such annotations have become available; yet, these valuable annotations are incomplete, include errors and only some of them represent highly reliable human curated information. Computational techniques able to reliably predict new gene or protein annotations with an associated likelihood value are thus paramount. Here, we propose a novel cross-organisms learning approach to reliably predict new functionalities for the genes of an organism based on the known controlled annotations of the genes of another, evolutionarily related and better studied, organism. We leverage a new representation of the annotation discovery problem and a random perturbation of the available controlled annotations to allow the application of supervised algorithms to predict with good accuracy unknown gene annotations. Taking advantage of the numerous gene annotations available for a well-studied organism, our cross-organisms learning method creates and trains better prediction models, which can then be applied to predict new gene annotations of a target organism. We tested and compared our method with the equivalent single organism approach on different gene annotation datasets of five evolutionarily related organisms (Homo sapiens, Mus musculus, Bos taurus, Gallus gallus and Dictyostelium discoideum). Results show both the usefulness of the perturbation method of available annotations for better prediction model training and a great improvement of the cross-organism models with respect to the single-organism ones, without influence of the evolutionary distance between the considered organisms. The generated ranked lists of reliably predicted annotations, which describe novel gene functionalities and have an associated likelihood value, are very valuable both to complement available annotations, for better coverage in biomedical knowledge discovery analyses, and to quicken the annotation curation process, by focusing it on the prioritized novel annotations predicted. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determination of Minimum Training Sample Size for Microarray-Based Cancer Outcome Prediction–An Empirical Assessment

PubMed Central

Cheng, Ningtao; Wu, Leihong; Cheng, Yiyu

2013-01-01

The promise of microarray technology in providing prediction classifiers for cancer outcome estimation has been confirmed by a number of demonstrable successes. However, the reliability of prediction results relies heavily on the accuracy of statistical parameters involved in classifiers. It cannot be reliably estimated with only a small number of training samples. Therefore, it is of vital importance to determine the minimum number of training samples and to ensure the clinical value of microarrays in cancer outcome prediction. We evaluated the impact of training sample size on model performance extensively based on 3 large-scale cancer microarray datasets provided by the second phase of MicroArray Quality Control project (MAQC-II). An SSNR-based (scale of signal-to-noise ratio) protocol was proposed in this study for minimum training sample size determination. External validation results based on another 3 cancer datasets confirmed that the SSNR-based approach could not only determine the minimum number of training samples efficiently, but also provide a valuable strategy for estimating the underlying performance of classifiers in advance. Once translated into clinical routine applications, the SSNR-based protocol would provide great convenience in microarray-based cancer outcome prediction in improving classifier reliability. PMID:23861920

Thermal Cycling Life Prediction of Sn-3.0Ag-0.5Cu Solder Joint Using Type-I Censored Data

PubMed Central

Mi, Jinhua; Yang, Yuan-Jian; Huang, Hong-Zhong

2014-01-01

Because solder joint interconnections are the weaknesses of microelectronic packaging, their reliability has great influence on the reliability of the entire packaging structure. Based on an accelerated life test the reliability assessment and life prediction of lead-free solder joints using Weibull distribution are investigated. The type-I interval censored lifetime data were collected from a thermal cycling test, which was implemented on microelectronic packaging with lead-free ball grid array (BGA) and fine-pitch ball grid array (FBGA) interconnection structures. The number of cycles to failure of lead-free solder joints is predicted by using a modified Engelmaier fatigue life model and a type-I censored data processing method. Then, the Pan model is employed to calculate the acceleration factor of this test. A comparison of life predictions between the proposed method and the ones calculated directly by Matlab and Minitab is conducted to demonstrate the practicability and effectiveness of the proposed method. At last, failure analysis and microstructure evolution of lead-free solders are carried out to provide useful guidance for the regular maintenance, replacement of substructure, and subsequent processing of electronic products. PMID:25121138

Inter-rater reliability for movement pattern analysis (MPA): measuring patterning of behaviors versus discrete behavior counts as indicators of decision-making style

PubMed Central

Connors, Brenda L.; Rende, Richard; Colton, Timothy J.

2014-01-01

The unique yield of collecting observational data on human movement has received increasing attention in a number of domains, including the study of decision-making style. As such, interest has grown in the nuances of core methodological issues, including the best ways of assessing inter-rater reliability. In this paper we focus on one key topic – the distinction between establishing reliability for the patterning of behaviors as opposed to the computation of raw counts – and suggest that reliability for each be compared empirically rather than determined a priori. We illustrate by assessing inter-rater reliability for key outcome measures derived from movement pattern analysis (MPA), an observational methodology that records body movements as indicators of decision-making style with demonstrated predictive validity. While reliability ranged from moderate to good for raw counts of behaviors reflecting each of two Overall Factors generated within MPA (Assertion and Perspective), inter-rater reliability for patterning (proportional indicators of each factor) was significantly higher and excellent (ICC = 0.89). Furthermore, patterning, as compared to raw counts, provided better prediction of observable decision-making process assessed in the laboratory. These analyses support the utility of using an empirical approach to inform the consideration of measuring patterning versus discrete behavioral counts of behaviors when determining inter-rater reliability of observable behavior. They also speak to the substantial reliability that may be achieved via application of theoretically grounded observational systems such as MPA that reveal thinking and action motivations via visible movement patterns. PMID:24999336

Inter-rater reliability for movement pattern analysis (MPA): measuring patterning of behaviors versus discrete behavior counts as indicators of decision-making style.

PubMed

Connors, Brenda L; Rende, Richard; Colton, Timothy J

2014-01-01

The unique yield of collecting observational data on human movement has received increasing attention in a number of domains, including the study of decision-making style. As such, interest has grown in the nuances of core methodological issues, including the best ways of assessing inter-rater reliability. In this paper we focus on one key topic - the distinction between establishing reliability for the patterning of behaviors as opposed to the computation of raw counts - and suggest that reliability for each be compared empirically rather than determined a priori. We illustrate by assessing inter-rater reliability for key outcome measures derived from movement pattern analysis (MPA), an observational methodology that records body movements as indicators of decision-making style with demonstrated predictive validity. While reliability ranged from moderate to good for raw counts of behaviors reflecting each of two Overall Factors generated within MPA (Assertion and Perspective), inter-rater reliability for patterning (proportional indicators of each factor) was significantly higher and excellent (ICC = 0.89). Furthermore, patterning, as compared to raw counts, provided better prediction of observable decision-making process assessed in the laboratory. These analyses support the utility of using an empirical approach to inform the consideration of measuring patterning versus discrete behavioral counts of behaviors when determining inter-rater reliability of observable behavior. They also speak to the substantial reliability that may be achieved via application of theoretically grounded observational systems such as MPA that reveal thinking and action motivations via visible movement patterns.

PERFORMANCE, RELIABILITY, AND IMPROVEMENT OF A TISSUE-SPECIFIC METABOLIC SIMULATOR

EPA Science Inventory

A methodology is described that has been used to build and enhance a simulator for rat liver metabolism providing reliable predictions within a large chemical domain. The tissue metabolism simulator (TIMES) utilizes a heuristic algorithm to generate plausible metabolic maps using...

Meeting the Need for Special Education Teachers for Culturally Linguistically Diverse Students with Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peterson, Patricia; Showalter, Stephen

2010-01-01

Significant personnel shortages in special education have been noted in the 23rd Annual Report to Congress on the Implementation of IDEA Act (USDE, 2002). With predictions of even more serious teacher shortages, there is an especially critical need for additional special education teachers for students with disabilities from culturally and…

Psychological Needs as the Working-Life Quality Predictor of Special Education Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bozgeyikli, Hasan

2018-01-01

The purpose of this research is to determine whether psychological needs that the special education teachers have, significantly predict the professional quality of life. Descriptive survey design was used in the research. The data of the research were obtained from 238 special education teachers (45% males and 55.5% females) who were working as a…

[Comparative analysis of electroencephalographic tests of alpha activity attenuation in evaluation of involuntary falling asleep in healthy adults].

PubMed

Sundrić, Zvonko; Rajsić, Nenad; Lakocević, Milan; Nikolić-Djorić, Emilija

2010-01-01

Decrease of daily alertness is a common cause of accidents in the work place, especially traffic accidents. Therefore, an increasing interest exists to determine reliable indicators of a tendency to fall asleep involuntarily. To determine an optimal electroencephalographic (EEG) indicator of an involuntary tendency to fall asleep, we performed a study on neurologically healthy subjects, after one night of sleep deprivation. Total sleep deprivation was aimed at increasing daily sleepiness in healthy subjects, providing us with an opportunity to test different methods of evaluation. We applied a visual analogue scale for sleepiness (VASS), EEG registration with the specific test of alpha activity attenuation (TAA) in 87 healthy subjects. The test was perfomed in a standard way (sTAA) as well as in accordance with new modifications related to changes of EEG filter width in the range from 5 to 32 Hz (mTAA). After sleep deprivation, we observed involuntary falling asleep in 54 subjects. The comparison of VASS results showed no differences, contrary to a more objective TAA. Between two variants of TAA, the modified test provided us with a better prediction for subjects who would fall asleep involuntarily. The application of a more objective EEG test in evaluation of daily alertness represents the optimal method of testing. Modified TAA attracts special attention, offering a simple solution for reliable testing of decreased daily alertness in medical services related to professional aircraft personnel.

Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging for Chance Constrained Remediation Designs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitsazan, N.; Tsai, F. T.

2012-12-01

Groundwater remediation designs are heavily relying on simulation models which are subjected to various sources of uncertainty in their predictions. To develop a robust remediation design, it is crucial to understand the effect of uncertainty sources. In this research, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) framework to segregate and prioritize sources of uncertainty in a multi-layer frame, where each layer targets a source of uncertainty. The HBMA framework provides an insight to uncertainty priorities and propagation. In addition, HBMA allows evaluating model weights in different hierarchy levels and assessing the relative importance of models in each level. To account for uncertainty, we employ a chance constrained (CC) programming for stochastic remediation design. Chance constrained programming was implemented traditionally to account for parameter uncertainty. Recently, many studies suggested that model structure uncertainty is not negligible compared to parameter uncertainty. Using chance constrained programming along with HBMA can provide a rigorous tool for groundwater remediation designs under uncertainty. In this research, the HBMA-CC was applied to a remediation design in a synthetic aquifer. The design was to develop a scavenger well approach to mitigate saltwater intrusion toward production wells. HBMA was employed to assess uncertainties from model structure, parameter estimation and kriging interpolation. An improved harmony search optimization method was used to find the optimal location of the scavenger well. We evaluated prediction variances of chloride concentration at the production wells through the HBMA framework. The results showed that choosing the single best model may lead to a significant error in evaluating prediction variances for two reasons. First, considering the single best model, variances that stem from uncertainty in the model structure will be ignored. Second, considering the best model with non-dominant model weight may underestimate or overestimate prediction variances by ignoring other plausible propositions. Chance constraints allow developing a remediation design with a desirable reliability. However, considering the single best model, the calculated reliability will be different from the desirable reliability. We calculated the reliability of the design for the models at different levels of HBMA. The results showed that by moving toward the top layers of HBMA, the calculated reliability converges to the chosen reliability. We employed the chance constrained optimization along with the HBMA framework to find the optimal location and pumpage for the scavenger well. The results showed that using models at different levels in the HBMA framework, the optimal location of the scavenger well remained the same, but the optimal extraction rate was altered. Thus, we concluded that the optimal pumping rate was sensitive to the prediction variance. Also, the prediction variance was changed by using different extraction rate. Using very high extraction rate will cause prediction variances of chloride concentration at the production wells to approach zero regardless of which HBMA models used.

An interventionist adherence scale for a specialized brief negotiation interview focused on treatment engagement for opioid use disorders.

PubMed

Pantalon, Michael V; Dziura, James; Li, Fang-Yong; Owens, Patricia H; O'Connor, Patrick G; D'Onofrio, Gail

2017-01-01

No psychometrically validated instrument for evaluating the extent to which interventionists correctly implement brief interventions designed to motivate treatment engagement for opioid use disorders has been reported in the literature. The objective of this study was to develop and examine the psychometric properties of the Brief Negotiation Interview (BNI) Adherence Scale for Opioid Use Disorders (BAS-O). In the context of a randomized controlled trial evaluating the efficacy of 3 models of emergency department care for opioid use disorders, the authors developed and subsequently examined the psychometric properties of the BAS-O, a 38-item scale that required raters to answer whether or not ("Yes" or "No") each of the critical actions of the BNI was correctly implemented by the research interventionist. BAS-O items pertained to the BNI's 4 steps: (1) Raise the Subject, (2) Provide Feedback, (3) Enhance Motivation, and (4) Negotiate and Advise. A total of 215 audio-recorded BNI and 88 control encounters were rated by 3 trained raters who were independent of the study team and blind to study hypotheses, treatment, and assignment. The results indicated the BAS-O has fair to excellent psychometric properties, in terms of good internal consistency, excellent interrater reliability, discriminant validity, and construct validity, and fair predictive validity. A 13-item, 2-factor solution accounted for nearly 80% of the variance, where factor 1 addressed "Autonomy and Planning" (7 items) and factor 2 addressed "Motivation and Problems" (6 items). However, predictive validity was found for only one of the BAS-O factor items (i.e., Telling patients that treatment will address a range of issues related to their opioid use disorder). This study suggests that the BAS-O is a psychometrically valid measure of adherence to the specialized BNI for motivating treatment engagement in patients with opioid use disorders, thus providing a brief (13-item), objective method of evaluating BNI skill performance.

Cue reliability and a landmark stability heuristic determine relative weighting between egocentric and allocentric visual information in memory-guided reach.

PubMed

Byrne, Patrick A; Crawford, J Douglas

2010-06-01

It is not known how egocentric visual information (location of a target relative to the self) and allocentric visual information (location of a target relative to external landmarks) are integrated to form reach plans. Based on behavioral data from rodents and humans we hypothesized that the degree of stability in visual landmarks would influence the relative weighting. Furthermore, based on numerous cue-combination studies we hypothesized that the reach system would act like a maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE), where the reliability of both cues determines their relative weighting. To predict how these factors might interact we developed an MLE model that weighs egocentric and allocentric information based on their respective reliabilities, and also on an additional stability heuristic. We tested the predictions of this model in 10 human subjects by manipulating landmark stability and reliability (via variable amplitude vibration of the landmarks and variable amplitude gaze shifts) in three reach-to-touch tasks: an egocentric control (reaching without landmarks), an allocentric control (reaching relative to landmarks), and a cue-conflict task (involving a subtle landmark "shift" during the memory interval). Variability from all three experiments was used to derive parameters for the MLE model, which was then used to simulate egocentric-allocentric weighting in the cue-conflict experiment. As predicted by the model, landmark vibration--despite its lack of influence on pointing variability (and thus allocentric reliability) in the control experiment--had a strong influence on egocentric-allocentric weighting. A reduced model without the stability heuristic was unable to reproduce this effect. These results suggest heuristics for extrinsic cue stability are at least as important as reliability for determining cue weighting in memory-guided reaching.

The Real World Significance of Performance Prediction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pardos, Zachary A.; Wang, Qing Yang; Trivedi, Shubhendu

2012-01-01

In recent years, the educational data mining and user modeling communities have been aggressively introducing models for predicting student performance on external measures such as standardized tests as well as within-tutor performance. While these models have brought statistically reliable improvement to performance prediction, the real world…

Towards an Australian ensemble streamflow forecasting system for flood prediction and water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, J.; David, R. E.; Wang, Q.; Li, M.; Shrestha, D. L.

2016-12-01

Flood forecasting in Australia has historically relied on deterministic forecasting models run only when floods are imminent, with considerable forecaster input and interpretation. These now co-existed with a continually available 7-day streamflow forecasting service (also deterministic) aimed at operational water management applications such as environmental flow releases. The 7-day service is not optimised for flood prediction. We describe progress on developing a system for ensemble streamflow forecasting that is suitable for both flood prediction and water management applications. Precipitation uncertainty is handled through post-processing of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) output with a Bayesian rainfall post-processor (RPP). The RPP corrects biases, downscales NWP output, and produces reliable ensemble spread. Ensemble precipitation forecasts are used to force a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Uncertainty in precipitation forecasts is insufficient to reliably describe streamflow forecast uncertainty, particularly at shorter lead-times. We characterise hydrological prediction uncertainty separately with a 4-stage error model. The error model relies on data transformation to ensure residuals are homoscedastic and symmetrically distributed. To ensure streamflow forecasts are accurate and reliable, the residuals are modelled using a mixture-Gaussian distribution with distinct parameters for the rising and falling limbs of the forecast hydrograph. In a case study of the Murray River in south-eastern Australia, we show ensemble predictions of floods generally have lower errors than deterministic forecasting methods. We also discuss some of the challenges in operationalising short-term ensemble streamflow forecasts in Australia, including meeting the needs for accurate predictions across all flow ranges and comparing forecasts generated by event and continuous hydrological models.

Specialized CFD Grid Generation Methods for Near-Field Sonic Boom Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, Michael A.; Campbell, Richard L.; Elmiligui, Alaa; Cliff, Susan E.; Nayani, Sudheer N.

2014-01-01

Ongoing interest in analysis and design of low sonic boom supersonic transports re- quires accurate and ecient Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools. Specialized grid generation techniques are employed to predict near- eld acoustic signatures of these con- gurations. A fundamental examination of grid properties is performed including grid alignment with ow characteristics and element type. The issues a ecting the robustness of cylindrical surface extrusion are illustrated. This study will compare three methods in the extrusion family of grid generation methods that produce grids aligned with the freestream Mach angle. These methods are applied to con gurations from the First AIAA Sonic Boom Prediction Workshop.

Oral Language Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Natalicio, Diana S.; Williams, Frederick

This paper reports the attempt to see which characteristics of the speech of Black and Mexican American children would be reliably evaluated by experts specializing in dialect study. Presumably, if selected characteristics were evaluated with consistency and bases for these evaluations were given, such results could serve in training teachers to…

Florida Journal of Communication Disorders, 1999.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lundy, Donna S., Ed.

1999-01-01

This issue contains eight articles that represent information on a variety of highly specialized topics involving communicative sciences. Articles include: (1) "The Reliability of the Kay Elemetrics Multidimensional Voice Program (MDVP) for Acoustic Analysis of the Normal Voice" (Ann Marie Cimino and Christine M. Sapienza), which focuses on the…

An appraisal of the psychometric properties of the Clinician version of the Apathy Evaluation Scale (AES-C).

PubMed

Clarke, Diana E; Van Reekum, Robert; Patel, Jigisha; Simard, Martine; Gomez, Everlyne; Streiner, David L

2007-01-01

This article examines the psychometric properties of the clinician version of the Apathy Evaluation Scale (AES-C) to determine its ability to characterize, quantify and differentiate apathy. Critical appraisals of the item-reduction processes, effectiveness of the administration, coding and scoring procedures, and the reliability and validity of the scale were carried out. For training, administration and rating of the AES-C, clearer guidelines, including a more standardized list of verbal and non-verbal apathetic cues, are needed. There is evidence of high internal consistency for the scale across studies. In addition, the original study reported good test-retest and inter-rater reliability coefficients. However, there is a lack of replication on these more stable and informative measures of reliability and as such they warrant further investigation. The research evidence confirms that the AES-C shows good discriminant, convergent and criterion validity. However, evidence of its predictive validity is limited. As this aspect of validity refers to the scale's ability to predict future outcomes, which is important for treatment and rehabilitation planning, further assessment of the predictive validity of the AES-C is needed. In conclusion, the AES-C is a reliable and valid measure for the characterization and quantification of apathy. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

How to differentiate congenital from noncongenital chronic neutropenia at the first medical examination? Proposal of score: A pilot study from the French Severe Chronic Neutropenia registry.

PubMed

Bejjani, Naim; Beaupain, Blandine; Bertrand, Yves; Bellanne-Chantelot, Christine; Donadieu, Jean

2017-12-01

We developed a diagnostic score to differentiate congenital from noncongenital neutropenia at the time of diagnosis using reliable data collected at the first visit of a patients with neutropenia. In a pilot retrospective study, we included 120 patients diagnosed with chronic neutropenia; 61 had congenital and 59 had noncongenital neutropenia. We reviewed patient medical charts and collected the initial complete blood count (CBC) and other reliable data. We used logistic regression to determine the probability that the neutropenia was congenital. On the initial CBC, the degree of neutropenia had no predictive value; only monocytosis >1.5 × 10 9 /l, hemoglobin <90 g/l, or mild thrombocytopenia <150 × 10 9 /l suggested congenital neutropenia. The most predictive factors for congenital neutropenia were a medical history (consanguinity and patient history of neutropenia), severe infections, and oral stomatitis or gingivitis at the time of diagnosis. The age at diagnosis had limited predictive value. A diagnosis of congenital neutropenia may be reliably suspected based only on information from the CBC, some basic information from patient and parent interviews, and a clinical examination. A pilot score with six factors that could be readily, reliably collected, should facilitate the diagnosis of congenital neutropenia. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prediction of Seasonal Climate-induced Variations in Global Food Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

2013-01-01

Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are therefore exposed to variations in yields, production, and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of major food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We assessed the reliability of hindcasts (i.e., retrospective forecasts for the past) of crop yield loss relative to the previous year for two lead times. Pre-season yield predictions employ climatic forecasts and have lead times of approximately 3 to 5 months for providing information regarding variations in yields for the coming cropping season. Within-season yield predictions use climatic forecasts with lead times of 1 to 3 months. Pre-season predictions can be of value to national governments and commercial concerns, complemented by subsequent updates from within-season predictions. The latter incorporate information on the most recent climatic data for the upcoming period of reproductive growth. In addition to such predictions, hindcasts using observations from satellites were performed to demonstrate the upper limit of the reliability of crop forecasting.

The Challenges of Credible Thermal Protection System Reliability Quantification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Lawrence L.

2013-01-01

The paper discusses several of the challenges associated with developing a credible reliability estimate for a human-rated crew capsule thermal protection system. The process of developing such a credible estimate is subject to the quantification, modeling and propagation of numerous uncertainties within a probabilistic analysis. The development of specific investment recommendations, to improve the reliability prediction, among various potential testing and programmatic options is then accomplished through Bayesian analysis.

An application of characteristic function in order to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Żurek, Józef; Kaleta, Ryszard; Zieja, Mariusz

2016-06-01

The forecasting of reliability and life of aeronautical hardware requires recognition of many and various destructive processes that deteriorate the health/maintenance status thereof. The aging of technical components of aircraft as an armament system proves of outstanding significance to reliability and safety of the whole system. The aging process is usually induced by many and various factors, just to mention mechanical, biological, climatic, or chemical ones. The aging is an irreversible process and considerably affects (i.e. reduces) reliability and lifetime of aeronautical equipment. Application of the characteristic function of the aging process is suggested to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware. An increment in values of diagnostic parameters is introduced to formulate then, using the characteristic function and after some rearrangements, the partial differential equation. An analytical dependence for the characteristic function of the aging process is a solution to this equation. With the inverse transformation applied, the density function of the aging of aeronautical hardware is found. Having found the density function, one can determine the aeronautical equipment's reliability and lifetime. The in-service collected or the life tests delivered data are used to attain this goal. Coefficients in this relationship are found using the likelihood function.

An application of characteristic function in order to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Żurek, Józef; Kaleta, Ryszard; Zieja, Mariusz

2016-06-08

The forecasting of reliability and life of aeronautical hardware requires recognition of many and various destructive processes that deteriorate the health/maintenance status thereof. The aging of technical components of aircraft as an armament system proves of outstanding significance to reliability and safety of the whole system. The aging process is usually induced by many and various factors, just to mention mechanical, biological, climatic, or chemical ones. The aging is an irreversible process and considerably affects (i.e. reduces) reliability and lifetime of aeronautical equipment. Application of the characteristic function of the aging process is suggested to predict reliability and lifetime ofmore » aeronautical hardware. An increment in values of diagnostic parameters is introduced to formulate then, using the characteristic function and after some rearrangements, the partial differential equation. An analytical dependence for the characteristic function of the aging process is a solution to this equation. With the inverse transformation applied, the density function of the aging of aeronautical hardware is found. Having found the density function, one can determine the aeronautical equipment’s reliability and lifetime. The in-service collected or the life tests delivered data are used to attain this goal. Coefficients in this relationship are found using the likelihood function.« less

Investigation of improving MEMS-type VOA reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Seok K.; Lee, Yeong G.; Park, Moo Y.

2003-12-01

MEMS technologies have been applied to a lot of areas, such as optical communications, Gyroscopes and Bio-medical components and so on. In terms of the applications in the optical communication field, MEMS technologies are essential, especially, in multi dimensional optical switches and Variable Optical Attenuators(VOAs). This paper describes the process for the development of MEMS type VOAs with good optical performance and improved reliability. Generally, MEMS VOAs have been fabricated by silicon micro-machining process, precise fibre alignment and sophisticated packaging process. Because, it is composed of many structures with various materials, it is difficult to make devices reliable. We have developed MEMS type VOSs with many failure mode considerations (FMEA: Failure Mode Effect Analysis) in the initial design step, predicted critical failure factors and revised the design, and confirmed the reliability by preliminary test. These predicted failure factors were moisture, bonding strength of the wire, which wired between the MEMS chip and TO-CAN and instability of supplied signals. Statistical quality control tools (ANOVA, T-test and so on) were used to control these potential failure factors and produce optimum manufacturing conditions. To sum up, we have successfully developed reliable MEMS type VOAs with good optical performances by controlling potential failure factors and using statistical quality control tools. As a result, developed VOAs passed international reliability standards (Telcodia GR-1221-CORE).

Investigation of improving MEMS-type VOA reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Seok K.; Lee, Yeong G.; Park, Moo Y.

2004-01-01

MEMS technologies have been applied to a lot of areas, such as optical communications, Gyroscopes and Bio-medical components and so on. In terms of the applications in the optical communication field, MEMS technologies are essential, especially, in multi dimensional optical switches and Variable Optical Attenuators(VOAs). This paper describes the process for the development of MEMS type VOAs with good optical performance and improved reliability. Generally, MEMS VOAs have been fabricated by silicon micro-machining process, precise fibre alignment and sophisticated packaging process. Because, it is composed of many structures with various materials, it is difficult to make devices reliable. We have developed MEMS type VOSs with many failure mode considerations (FMEA: Failure Mode Effect Analysis) in the initial design step, predicted critical failure factors and revised the design, and confirmed the reliability by preliminary test. These predicted failure factors were moisture, bonding strength of the wire, which wired between the MEMS chip and TO-CAN and instability of supplied signals. Statistical quality control tools (ANOVA, T-test and so on) were used to control these potential failure factors and produce optimum manufacturing conditions. To sum up, we have successfully developed reliable MEMS type VOAs with good optical performances by controlling potential failure factors and using statistical quality control tools. As a result, developed VOAs passed international reliability standards (Telcodia GR-1221-CORE).

Ottawa Ankle Rules and Subjective Surgeon Perception to Evaluate Radiograph Necessity Following Foot and Ankle Sprain

PubMed Central

Pires, RES; Pereira, AA; Abreu-e-Silva, GM; Labronici, PJ; Figueiredo, LB; Godoy-Santos, AL; Kfuri, M

2014-01-01

Background: Foot and ankle injuries are frequent in emergency departments. Although only a few patients with foot and ankle sprain present fractures and the fracture patterns are almost always simple, lack of fracture diagnosis can lead to poor functional outcomes. Aim: The present study aims to evaluate the reliability of the Ottawa ankle rules and the orthopedic surgeon subjective perception to assess foot and ankle fractures after sprains. Subjects and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted from July 2012 to December 2012. Ethical approval was granted. Two hundred seventy-four adult patients admitted to the emergency department with foot and/or ankle sprain were evaluated by an orthopedic surgeon who completed a questionnaire prior to radiographic assessment. The Ottawa ankle rules and subjective perception of foot and/or ankle fractures were evaluated on the questionnaire. Results: Thirteen percent (36/274) patients presented fracture. Orthopedic surgeon subjective analysis showed 55.6% sensitivity, 90.1% specificity, 46.5% positive predictive value and 92.9% negative predictive value. The general orthopedic surgeon opinion accuracy was 85.4%. The Ottawa ankle rules presented 97.2% sensitivity, 7.8% specificity, 13.9% positive predictive value, 95% negative predictive value and 19.9% accuracy respectively. Weight-bearing inability was the Ottawa ankle rule item that presented the highest reliability, 69.4% sensitivity, 61.6% specificity, 63.1% accuracy, 21.9% positive predictive value and 93% negative predictive value respectively. Conclusion: The Ottawa ankle rules showed high reliability for deciding when to take radiographs in foot and/or ankle sprains. Weight-bearing inability was the most important isolated item to predict fracture presence. Orthopedic surgeon subjective analysis to predict fracture possibility showed a high specificity rate, representing a confident method to exclude unnecessary radiographic exams. PMID:24971221

Psychometrics Matter in Health Behavior: A Long-term Reliability Generalization Study.

PubMed

Pickett, Andrew C; Valdez, Danny; Barry, Adam E

2017-09-01

Despite numerous calls for increased understanding and reporting of reliability estimates, social science research, including the field of health behavior, has been slow to respond and adopt such practices. Therefore, we offer a brief overview of reliability and common reporting errors; we then perform analyses to examine and demonstrate the variability of reliability estimates by sample and over time. Using meta-analytic reliability generalization, we examined the variability of coefficient alpha scores for a well-designed, consistent, nationwide health study, covering a span of nearly 40 years. For each year and sample, reliability varied. Furthermore, reliability was predicted by a sample characteristic that differed among age groups within each administration. We demonstrated that reliability is influenced by the methods and individuals from which a given sample is drawn. Our work echoes previous calls that psychometric properties, particularly reliability of scores, are important and must be considered and reported before drawing statistical conclusions.

Postmenopausal palpable ovary and ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Gojnić, M; Branković, M; Maksimović, M; Parapid, B; Dugalić, V; Jeremić, K; Gutić, B

2011-01-01

Ultrasound (US) examination is a much more reliable method for evaluation of potential ovarian cancer risk than gynecologic palpation. The aim of our study was to analyze the US characteristics of patients with palpable ovaries in light of potential for malignancy. We analyzed 70 women ten years after menopause without increased CA 125 values. They underwent clinical and US exams (abdominal and transvaginal ultrasound), with special emphasis on US Doppler exam. Bimanuel gynecological examination showed palpable ovaries in 14 patients (palpable ovary group), and the remaining 56 patients were defined as the control group. US showed increased dimensions of palpable ovaries. Atypical follicular activity, deviation from verticalization, atypical ovaries and hyperechogenic punctations classified under germ cell cysts occurred statistically significantly more often in the palpable ovary group. Doppler flow showed pathological vascularization in five patients with palpable ovaries and the estrogen level was increased. After four to six months in these five patients we found a mild increase of estrogen levels and higher Doppler abnormality. Six months later, two patients had irregular bleeding and underwent surgical treatment. Every adnexal mass after menopausis demands special attention. Bimanuel gynecological exams should be used liberally. It is necessary to follow the dimensions of the ovary, describe the echostructure, as well as the edges of the ovary and other anatomical structures. Doppler flow measurement and estrogen levels are predictive and give more information. Controls should be in three to six month intervals in order to make a decision for surgical treatment.

HiRel: Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated reliability tool system, (version 7.0). Volume 1: HARP introduction and user's guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, Salvatore J.; Rothmann, Elizabeth; Dugan, Joanne Bechta; Trivedi, Kishor S.; Mittal, Nitin; Boyd, Mark A.; Geist, Robert M.; Smotherman, Mark D.

1994-01-01

The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated Reliability (HiRel) tool system for reliability/availability prediction offers a toolbox of integrated reliability/availability programs that can be used to customize the user's application in a workstation or nonworkstation environment. HiRel consists of interactive graphical input/output programs and four reliability/availability modeling engines that provide analytical and simulative solutions to a wide host of reliable fault-tolerant system architectures and is also applicable to electronic systems in general. The tool system was designed to be compatible with most computing platforms and operating systems, and some programs have been beta tested, within the aerospace community for over 8 years. Volume 1 provides an introduction to the HARP program. Comprehensive information on HARP mathematical models can be found in the references.

Automatic documentation system extension to multi-manufacturers' computers and to measure, improve, and predict software reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simmons, D. B.

1975-01-01

The DOMONIC system has been modified to run on the Univac 1108 and the CDC 6600 as well as the IBM 370 computer system. The DOMONIC monitor system has been implemented to gather data which can be used to optimize the DOMONIC system and to predict the reliability of software developed using DOMONIC. The areas of quality metrics, error characterization, program complexity, program testing, validation and verification are analyzed. A software reliability model for estimating program completion levels and one on which to base system acceptance have been developed. The DAVE system which performs flow analysis and error detection has been converted from the University of Colorado CDC 6400/6600 computer to the IBM 360/370 computer system for use with the DOMONIC system.

Transmission overhaul estimates for partial and full replacement at repair

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Lewicki, D. G.

1991-01-01

Timely transmission overhauls increase in-flight service reliability greater than the calculated design reliabilities of the individual aircraft transmission components. Although necessary for aircraft safety, transmission overhauls contribute significantly to aircraft expense. Predictions of a transmission's maintenance needs at the design stage should enable the development of more cost effective and reliable transmissions in the future. The frequency is estimated of overhaul along with the number of transmissions or components needed to support the overhaul schedule. Two methods based on the two parameter Weibull statistical distribution for component life are used to estimate the time between transmission overhauls. These methods predict transmission lives for maintenance schedules which repair the transmission with a complete system replacement or repair only failed components of the transmission. An example illustrates the methods.

Methods to compute reliabilities for genomic predictions of feed intake

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

For new traits without historical reference data, cross-validation is often the preferred method to validate reliability (REL). Time truncation is less useful because few animals gain substantial REL after the truncation point. Accurate cross-validation requires separating genomic gain from pedigree...

Software analysis handbook: Software complexity analysis and software reliability estimation and prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Alice T.; Gunn, Todd; Pham, Tuan; Ricaldi, Ron

1994-01-01

This handbook documents the three software analysis processes the Space Station Software Analysis team uses to assess space station software, including their backgrounds, theories, tools, and analysis procedures. Potential applications of these analysis results are also presented. The first section describes how software complexity analysis provides quantitative information on code, such as code structure and risk areas, throughout the software life cycle. Software complexity analysis allows an analyst to understand the software structure, identify critical software components, assess risk areas within a software system, identify testing deficiencies, and recommend program improvements. Performing this type of analysis during the early design phases of software development can positively affect the process, and may prevent later, much larger, difficulties. The second section describes how software reliability estimation and prediction analysis, or software reliability, provides a quantitative means to measure the probability of failure-free operation of a computer program, and describes the two tools used by JSC to determine failure rates and design tradeoffs between reliability, costs, performance, and schedule.

Reliability of high-power QCW arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feeler, Ryan; Junghans, Jeremy; Remley, Jennifer; Schnurbusch, Don; Stephens, Ed

2010-02-01

Northrop Grumman Cutting Edge Optronics has developed a family of arrays for high-power QCW operation. These arrays are built using CTE-matched heat sinks and hard solder in order to maximize the reliability of the devices. A summary of a recent life test is presented in order to quantify the reliability of QCW arrays and associated laser gain modules. A statistical analysis of the raw lifetime data is presented in order to quantify the data in such a way that is useful for laser system designers. The life tests demonstrate the high level of reliability of these arrays in a number of operating regimes. For single-bar arrays, a MTTF of 19.8 billion shots is predicted. For four-bar samples, a MTTF of 14.6 billion shots is predicted. In addition, data representing a large pump source is analyzed and shown to have an expected lifetime of 13.5 billion shots. This corresponds to an expected operational lifetime of greater than ten thousand hours at repetition rates less than 370 Hz.

The Aviation Paradox: Why We Can 'Know' Jetliners But Not Reactors.

PubMed

Downer, John

2017-01-01

Publics and policymakers increasingly have to contend with the risks of complex, safety-critical technologies, such as airframes and reactors. As such, 'technological risk' has become an important object of modern governance, with state regulators as core agents, and 'reliability assessment' as the most essential metric. The Science and Technology Studies (STS) literature casts doubt on whether or not we should place our faith in these assessments because predictively calculating the ultra-high reliability required of such systems poses seemingly insurmountable epistemological problems. This paper argues that these misgivings are warranted in the nuclear sphere, despite evidence from the aviation sphere suggesting that such calculations can be accurate. It explains why regulatory calculations that predict the reliability of new airframes cannot work in principle, and then it explains why those calculations work in practice. It then builds on this explanation to argue that the means by which engineers manage reliability in aviation is highly domain-specific, and to suggest how a more nuanced understanding of jetliners could inform debates about nuclear energy.

Stress concentration factors at saddle and crown positions on the central brace of two-planar welded CHS DKT-connections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadi, Hamid; Lotfollahi-Yaghin, Mohammad Ali; Aminfar, Mohammad H.

2012-03-01

A set of parametric stress analyses was carried out for two-planar tubular DKT-joints under different axial loading conditions. The analysis results were used to present general remarks on the effects of the geometrical parameters on stress concentration factors (SCFs) at the inner saddle, outer saddle, and crown positions on the central brace. Based on results of finite element (FE) analysis and through nonlinear regression analysis, a new set of SCF parametric equations was established for fatigue design purposes. An assessment study of equations was conducted against the experimental data and original SCF database. The satisfaction of acceptance criteria proposed by the UK Department of Energy (UK DoE) was also checked. Results of parametric study showed that highly remarkable differences exist between the SCF values in a multi-planar DKT-joint and the corresponding SCFs in an equivalent uni-planar KT-joint having the same geometrical properties. It can be clearly concluded from this observation that using the equations proposed for uni-planar KT-connections to compute the SCFs in multi-planar DKT-joints will lead to either considerably under-predicting or over-predicting results. Hence, it is necessary to develop SCF formulae specially designed for multi-planar DKT-joints. Good results of equation assessment according to UK DoE acceptance criteria, high values of correlation coefficients, and the satisfactory agreement between the predictions of the proposed equations and the experimental data guarantee the accuracy of the equations. Therefore, the developed equations can be reliably used for fatigue design of offshore structures.

Computer simulation of solder joint failure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burchett, S.N.; Frear, D.R.; Rashid, M.M.

The thermomechanical fatigue failure of solder joints is increasingly becoming an important reliability issue for electronic packages. The purpose of this Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project was to develop computational tools for simulating the behavior of solder joints under strain and temperature cycling, taking into account the microstructural heterogeneities that exist in as-solidified near eutectic Sn-Pb joints, as well as subsequent microstructural evolution. The authors present two computational constitutive models, a two-phase model and a single-phase model, that were developed to predict the behavior of near eutectic Sn-Pb solder joints under fatigue conditions. Unique metallurgical tests provide themore » fundamental input for the constitutive relations. The two-phase model mathematically predicts the heterogeneous coarsening behavior of near eutectic Sn-Pb solder. The finite element simulations with this model agree qualitatively with experimental thermomechanical fatigue tests. The simulations show that the presence of an initial heterogeneity in the solder microstructure could significantly degrade the fatigue lifetime. The single-phase model was developed to predict solder joint behavior using materials data for constitutive relation constants that could be determined through straightforward metallurgical experiments. Special thermomechanical fatigue tests were developed to give fundamental materials input to the models, and an in situ SEM thermomechanical fatigue test system was developed to characterize microstructural evolution and the mechanical behavior of solder joints during the test. A shear/torsion test sample was developed to impose strain in two different orientations. Materials constants were derived from these tests. The simulation results from the two-phase model showed good fit to the experimental test results.« less

Prediction of Geomagnetic Activity and Key Parameters in High-latitude Ionosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, George V.; Lyatsky, Wladislaw; Tan, Arjun; Ridley, Aaron

2007-01-01

Prediction of geomagnetic activity and related events in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere are important tasks of US Space Weather Program. Prediction reliability is dependent on the prediction method, and elements included in the prediction scheme. Two of the main elements of such prediction scheme are: an appropriate geomagnetic activity index, and an appropriate coupling function (the combination of solar wind parameters providing the best correlation between upstream solar wind data and geomagnetic activity). We have developed a new index of geomagnetic activity, the Polar Magnetic (PM) index and an improved version of solar wind coupling function. PM index is similar to the existing polar cap PC index but it shows much better correlation with upstream solar wind/IMF data and other events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. We investigate the correlation of PM index with upstream solar wind/IMF data for 10 years (1995-2004) that include both low and high solar activity. We also have introduced a new prediction function for the predicting of cross-polar-cap voltage and Joule heating based on using both PM index and upstream solar wind/IMF data. As we show such prediction function significantly increase the reliability of prediction of these important parameters. The correlation coefficients between the actual and predicted values of these parameters are approx. 0.9 and higher.

Analysis of whisker-toughened CMC structural components using an interactive reliability model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, Stephen F.; Palko, Joseph L.

1992-01-01

Realizing wider utilization of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) requires the development of advanced structural analysis technologies. This article focuses on the use of interactive reliability models to predict component probability of failure. The deterministic William-Warnke failure criterion serves as theoretical basis for the reliability model presented here. The model has been implemented into a test-bed software program. This computer program has been coupled to a general-purpose finite element program. A simple structural problem is presented to illustrate the reliability model and the computer algorithm.

PREDICTING CLIMATE-INDUCED RANGE SHIFTS: MODEL DIFFERENCES AND MODEL RELIABILITY

EPA Science Inventory

Predicted changes in the global climate are likely to cause large shifts in the geographic ranges of many plant and animal species. To date, predictions of future range shifts have relied on a variety of modeling approaches with different levels of model accuracy. Using a common ...

Design of a randomized, non-inferiority trial to evaluate the reliability of videoconferencing for remote consultation of diabetes

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background An estimated 366 million people are living with diabetes worldwide and it is predicted that its prevalence will increase to 552 million by 2030. Management of this disease and its complications is a challenge for many countries. Optimal glycaemic control is necessary to minimize complications, but less than 70% of diabetic patients achieve target levels of blood glucose, partly due to poor access to qualified health care providers. Telemedicine has the potential to improve access to health care, especially for rural and remote residents. Video teleconsultation, a real-time (or synchronous) mode of telemedicine, is gaining more popularity around the world through recent improvements in digital telecommunications. If video consultation is to be offered as an alternative to face-to-face consultation in diabetes assessment and management, then it is important to demonstrate that this can be achieved without loss of clinical fidelity. This paper describes the protocol of a randomised controlled trail for assessing the reliability of remote video consultation for people with diabetes. Methods/Design A total of 160 people with diabetes will be randomised into either a Telemedicine or a Reference group. Participants in the Reference group will receive two sequential face-to-face consultations whereas in the Telemedicine group one consultation will be conducted face-to-face and the other via videoconference. The primary outcome measure will be a change in the patient’s medication. Secondary outcome measures will be findings in physical examination, detecting complications, and patient satisfaction. A difference of less than 20% in the aggregated level of agreement between the two study groups will be used to identify if videoconference is non-inferior to traditional mode of clinical care (face-to-face). Discussion Despite rapid growth in application of telemedicine in a variety of medical specialities, little is known about the reliability of videoconferencing for remote consultation of people with diabetes. Results of this proposed study will provide evidence of the reliability of specialist consultation offered by videoconference for people with diabetes. Trial registration number Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12612000315819. PMID:24528569

The Relationship between Special Education Teachers' Sense of Teacher Efficacy and Their Intent to Leave

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarty, Kristine A.

2013-01-01

The purpose of this mixed method study was to examine if there is a predictive relationship among special education teachers' sense of teacher efficacy and intent to leave while accounting for job satisfaction and a special education teacher's perceptions of principal support. Electronic surveys were sent via Survey Monkey to a random sample of…

The Validity of the Teacher Burnout Scale for Use with Special Education Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cook, Bradley Caro

2012-01-01

Unique stressors can cause special education teachers to experience burnout at twice the rate of their peers in general education. The purpose of this study was to determine if the Teacher Burnout Scale (TBS) is able to accurately predict burnout in special education teachers even though it does not include items that reflect the unique factors…

Interaction between Digestive Strategy and Niche Specialization Predicts Speciation Rates across Herbivorous Mammals.

PubMed

Tran, Lucy A P

2016-04-01

Biotic and abiotic factors often are treated as mutually exclusive drivers of diversification processes. In this framework, ecological specialists are expected to have higher speciation rates than generalists if abiotic factors are the primary controls on species diversity but lower rates if biotic interactions are more important. Speciation rate is therefore predicted to positively correlate with ecological specialization in the purely abiotic model but negatively correlate in the biotic model. In this study, I show that the positive relationship between ecological specialization and speciation expected from the purely abiotic model is recovered only when a species-specific trait, digestive strategy, is modeled in the terrestrial, herbivorous mammals (Mammalia). This result suggests a more nuanced model in which the response of specialized lineages to abiotic factors is dependent on a biological trait. I also demonstrate that the effect of digestive strategy on the ecological specialization-speciation rate relationship is not due to a difference in either the degree of ecological specialization or the speciation rate between foregut- and hindgut-fermenting mammals. Together, these findings suggest that a biological trait, alongside historical abiotic events, played an important role in shaping mammal speciation at long temporal and large geographic scales.

Analysis of the Material Removal Rate in Magnetic Abrasive Finishing of Thin Film Coated Pyrex Glass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hee Hwan; Lee, Seoung Hwan

The material removal rate (MRR) during precision finishing/polishing is a key factor, which dictates the process performance. Moreover, the MRR or wear rate is closely related to the material/part reliability. For nanoscale patterning and/or planarization on nano-order thickness coatings, the prediction and in-process monitoring of the MRR is necessary, because the process is not characterizable due to size effects and material property/process condition variations as a result of the coating/substrate interactions. The purpose of this research was to develop a practical methodology for the prediction and in-process monitoring of MRR during nanoscale finishing of coated surfaces. Using a specially designed magnetic abrasive finishing (MAF) and acoustic emission (AE) monitoring setup, experiments were carried out on indium-zinc-oxide (IZO) coated Pyrex glasses. After a given polishing time interval, AFM indentation was conducted for each workpiece sample to measure the adhesion force variations of the coating layers (IZO), which are directly related to the MRR changes. The force variation and AE monitoring data were compared to the MRR calculated form the surface measurement (Nanoview) results. The experimental results demonstrate strong correlations between AFM indentation and MRR measurement data. In addition, the monitored AE signals show sensitivity of the material structure variations of the coating layer, as the polishing progresses.

Asymmetric specialization and extinction risk in plant-flower visitor webs: a matter of morphology or abundance?

PubMed

Stang, Martina; Klinkhamer, Peter G L; van der Meijden, Eddy

2007-03-01

A recently discovered feature of plant-flower visitor webs is the asymmetric specialization of the interaction partners: specialized plants interact mainly with generalized flower visitors and specialized flower visitors mainly with generalized plants. Little is known about the factors leading to this asymmetry and their consequences for the extinction risk of species. Previous studies have proposed random interactions proportional to species abundance as an explanation. However, the simulation models used in these studies did not include potential biological constraints. In the present study, we tested the potential role of both morphological constraints and species abundance in promoting asymmetric specialization. We compared actual field data of a Mediterranean plant-flower visitor web with predictions of Monte Carlo simulations including different combinations of the potential factors structuring the web. Our simulations showed that both nectar-holder depth and abundance were able to produce asymmetry; but that the expected degree of asymmetry was stronger if based on both. Both factors can predict the number of interaction partners, but only nectar-holder depth was able to predict the degree of asymmetry of a certain species. What is more, without the size threshold the influence of abundance would disappear over time. Thus, asymmetric specialization seems to be the result of a size threshold and, only among the allowed interactions above this size threshold, a result of random interactions proportional to abundance. The simulations also showed that asymmetric specialization could not be the reason that the extinction risk of specialists and generalists is equalized, as suggested in the literature. In asymmetric webs specialists clearly had higher short-term extinction risks. In fact, primarily generalist visitors seem to profit from asymmetric specialization. In our web, specialists were less abundant than generalists. Therefore, including abundance in the simulation models increased the difference between specialists and generalists even more.

Cross-validation of recent and longstanding resting metabolic rate prediction equations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Resting metabolic rate (RMR) measurement is time consuming and requires specialized equipment. Prediction equations provide an easy method to estimate RMR; however, their accuracy likely varies across individuals. Understanding the factors that influence predicted RMR accuracy at the individual lev...

A probabilistic and adaptive approach to modeling performance of pavement infrastructure

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-08-01

Accurate prediction of pavement performance is critical to pavement management agencies. Reliable and accurate predictions of pavement infrastructure performance can save significant amounts of money for pavement infrastructure management agencies th...

Multi-spectral optical scanners for commercial earth observation missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Karin; Engel, Wolfgang; Berndt, Klaus

2017-11-01

In recent years, a number of commercial Earth observation missions have been initiated with the aim to gather data in the visible and near-infrared wavelength range. Some of these missions aim at medium resolution (5 to 10 m) multi-spectral imaging with the special background of daily revisiting. Typical applications aim at monitoring of farming area for growth control and harvest prediction, irrigation control, or disaster monitoring such as hail damage in farming, or flood survey. In order to arrive at profitable business plans for such missions, it is mandatory to establish the space segment, i.e. the spacecraft with their opto -electronic payloads, at minimum cost while guaranteeing maximum reliability for mission success. As multiple spacecraft are required for daily revisiting, the solutions are typically based on micro-satellites. This paper presents designs for multi-spectral opto-electric scanners for this type of missions. These designs are drive n by minimum mass and power budgets of microsatellites, and the need for minimum cost. As a consequence, it is mandatory to arrive at thermally robust, compact telescope designs. The paper gives a comparison between refractive, catadioptric, and TMA optics. For mirror designs, aluminium and Zerodur mirror technologies are briefly discussed. State-of-the art focal plane designs are presented. The paper also addresses the choice of detector technologies such as CCDs and CMOS Active Pixel Sensors. The electronics of the multi-spectral scanners represent the main design driver regarding power consumption, reliability, and (most often) cost. It can be subdivided into the detector drive electronics, analog and digital data processing chains, the data mass memory unit, formatting and down - linking units, payload control electronics, and local power supply. The paper gives overviews and trade-offs between data compression strategies and electronics solutions, mass memory unit designs, and data formatting approaches. Special emphasis will be put on space application aspects of these electronics solutions such as radiation total dose tolerance and single events robustness. Finally, software architecture and operational modes of commercial multi-spectral scanners are discussed. They are driven by operational requirements and mission constraints such as data takes per orbit, number of downlink ground stations, calibration needs, and mission schedule planning.

Percentage of All Non-Overlapping Data (PAND): An Alternative to PND

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parker, Richard I.; Hagan-Burke, Shanna; Vannest, Kimberly

2007-01-01

Although single-case researchers are not accustomed to analyzing data statistically, standards for research and accountability from government and other funding agents are creating pressure for more objective, reliable data. In addition, "evidence-based interventions" movements in special education, clinical psychology, and school psychology imply…

Validation of the Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology (IDS) in Cocaine Dependent Inmates.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suris, Alina; Kashner, T. Michael; Gillaspy, James A., Jr.; Biggs, Melanie; Rush, A. John

2001-01-01

While the reliability and validity of Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology (IDS) scores have been established with outpatient adults being treated in community psychiatric clinics, it has not been used in special or dually diagnosed populations. Establishes internal consistency, concurrent validity, and construct validity for both the clinical…

Break-even Analysis: Tool for Budget Planning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lohmann, Roger A.

1976-01-01

Multiple funding creates special management problems for the administrator of a human service agency. This article presents a useful analytic technique adapted from business practice that can help the administrator draw up and balance a unified budget. Such a budget also affords reliable overview of the agency's financial status. (Author)

A Study of Alternative Computer Architectures for System Reliability and Software Simplification.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-04-22

compression. Several known applications of neighborhood processing, such as noise removal, and boundary smoothing, are shown to be special cases of...Processing [21] A small effort was undertaken to implement image array processing at a very low cost. To this end, a standard Qwip Facsimile

Can Independent Judges Recognize Different Psychotherapies? An Experience with Manual-Guided Therapies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luborsky, Lester; And Others

1982-01-01

Tested whether independent judges could recognize three different manual-guided psychotherapies, drug counseling, supportive-expressive psychotherapy, and cognitive-behavioral using a special rating form containing scales for the characteristic aspects of each type. Results indicated that manual-guided therapies can be reliably recognized.…

Essentials of Millon Inventories Assessment. Essentials of Psychological Assessment Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strack, Stephen

This step-by-step reference guide to the five key Millon personality inventories includes vital information about each of the tests, including information on psychometric characteristics, special populations, assets-limitations, reliability-validity, and interpretation. The tests are: the Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory III (MCMI-III); the…

Critical Electronic Data Loss Perceptions of United States Military Contractors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Singletary, Tod J.

2017-01-01

The United States Military has become increasingly dependent upon technology to meet its mission objectives with a consequence being greater dependence on civilian defense contractors to provide specialized services in support of high-tech mission requirements. Modern military defense contractors have also become dependent upon reliable and secure…

An Evaluation of Videoconferencing as a Supportive Technology for Practicum Supervision

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dymond, Stacy K.; Renzaglia, Adelle; Halle, James W.; Chadsey, Janis; Bentz, Johnell L.

2008-01-01

In this study, the authors determine the efficacy of videoconferencing to supervise pre-service special education teachers. Efficacy is determined by (a) assessing interobserver reliability between on-site and off-site observers and (b) evaluating the feasibility and practicality of the videoconferencing technology. Data are collected in two…

Specialized Centres and the Local Home Community: Children with Disabilities Need Them Both.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Serpell, Robert

1986-01-01

Community based rehabilitation for disabled persons in developing nations is contrasted with institutionally based rehabilitation. A strategy is proposed which combines the two approaches and includes greater economic realism, design of advanced training programs, provision of reliable transportation, and more outreach and follow-up activities by…

System data communication structures for active-control transport aircraft, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hopkins, A. L.; Martin, J. H.; Brock, L. D.; Jansson, D. G.; Serben, S.; Smith, T. B.; Hanley, L. D.

1981-01-01

Candidate data communication techniques are identified, including dedicated links, local buses, broadcast buses, multiplex buses, and mesh networks. The design methodology for mesh networks is then discussed, including network topology and node architecture. Several concepts of power distribution are reviewed, including current limiting and mesh networks for power. The technology issues of packaging, transmission media, and lightning are addressed, and, finally, the analysis tools developed to aid in the communication design process are described. There are special tools to analyze the reliability and connectivity of networks and more general reliability analysis tools for all types of systems.

Fast gas spectroscopy using pulsed quantum cascade lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beyer, T.; Braun, M.; Lambrecht, A.

2003-03-01

Laser spectroscopy has found many industrial applications, e.g., control of automotive exhaust and process monitoring. The midinfrared region is of special interest because it has stronger absorption lines compared to the near infrared (NIR). However, in the NIR high quality reliable laser sources, detectors, and passive optical components are available. A quantum cascade laser could change this situation if fundamental advantages can be exploited with compact and reliable systems. It will be shown that, using pulsed lasers and available fast detectors, lower residual sensitivity levels than in corresponding NIR systems can be achieved. The stability is sufficient for industrial applications.

Rainfall prediction of Cimanuk watershed regions with canonical correlation analysis (CCA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rustiana, Shailla; Nurani Ruchjana, Budi; Setiawan Abdullah, Atje; Hermawan, Eddy; Berliana Sipayung, Sinta; Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya, I.; Krismianto

2017-10-01

Rainfall prediction in Indonesia is very influential on various development sectors, such as agriculture, fisheries, water resources, industry, and other sectors. The inaccurate predictions can lead to negative effects. Cimanuk watershed is one of the main pillar of water resources in West Java. This watersheds divided into three parts, which is a headwater of Cimanuk sub-watershed, Middle of Cimanuk sub-watershed and downstream of Cimanuk sub- watershed. The flow of this watershed will flow through the Jatigede reservoir and will supply water to the north-coast area in the next few years. So, the reliable model of rainfall prediction is very needed in this watershed. Rainfall prediction conducted with Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) method using Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) software. The prediction is every 3months on 2016 (after January) based on Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data over West Java. Predictors used in CPT were the monthly data index of Nino3.4, Dipole Mode (DMI), and Monsoon Index (AUSMI-ISMI-WNPMI-WYMI) with initial condition January. The initial condition is chosen by the last data update. While, the predictant were monthly rainfall data CHIRPS region of West Java. The results of prediction rainfall showed by skill map from Pearson Correlation. High correlation of skill map are on MAM (Mar-Apr-May), AMJ (Apr-May-Jun), and JJA (Jun-Jul-Aug) which means the model is reliable to forecast rainfall distribution over Cimanuk watersheds region (over West Java) on those seasons. CCA score over those season prediction mostly over 0.7. The accuracy of the model CPT also indicated by the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve of the results of Pearson correlation 3 representative point of sub-watershed (Sumedang, Majalengka, and Cirebon), were mostly located in the top line of non-skill, and evidenced by the same of rainfall patterns between observation and forecast. So, the model of CPT with CCA method is reliable to use.

On the next generation of reliability analysis tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Babcock, Philip S., IV; Leong, Frank; Gai, Eli

1987-01-01

The current generation of reliability analysis tools concentrates on improving the efficiency of the description and solution of the fault-handling processes and providing a solution algorithm for the full system model. The tools have improved user efficiency in these areas to the extent that the problem of constructing the fault-occurrence model is now the major analysis bottleneck. For the next generation of reliability tools, it is proposed that techniques be developed to improve the efficiency of the fault-occurrence model generation and input. Further, the goal is to provide an environment permitting a user to provide a top-down design description of the system from which a Markov reliability model is automatically constructed. Thus, the user is relieved of the tedious and error-prone process of model construction, permitting an efficient exploration of the design space, and an independent validation of the system's operation is obtained. An additional benefit of automating the model construction process is the opportunity to reduce the specialized knowledge required. Hence, the user need only be an expert in the system he is analyzing; the expertise in reliability analysis techniques is supplied.

Can history and exam alone reliably predict pneumonia?

PubMed

Graffelman, A W; le Cessie, S; Knuistingh Neven, A; Wilemssen, F E J A; Zonderland, H M; van den Broek, P J

2007-06-01

Prediction rules based on clinical information have been developed to support the diagnosis of pneumonia and help limit the use of expensive diagnostic tests. However, these prediction rules need to be validated in the primary care setting. Adults who met our definition of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) were recruited for a prospective study on the causes of LRTI, between November 15, 1998 and June 1, 2001 in the Leiden region of The Netherlands. Clinical information was collected and chest radiography was performed. A literature search was also done to find prediction rules for pneumonia. 129 patients--26 with pneumonia and 103 without--were included, and 6 prediction rules were applied. Only the model with the addition of a test for C-reactive protein had a significant area under the curve of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.58-0.80), with a positive predictive value of 47% (95% CI, 23-71) and a negative predictive value of 84% (95% CI, 77-91). The pretest probabilities for the presence and absence of pneumonia were 20% and 80%, respectively. Models based only on clinical information do not reliably predict the presence of pneumonia. The addition of an elevated C-reactive protein level seems of little value.

Bayesian methods in reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

CARES/LIFE Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

2003-01-01

This manual describes the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction (CARES/LIFE) computer program. The program calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. CARES/LIFE is an extension of the CARES (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN, ABAQUS, and ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker law. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled by using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. The probabilistic time-dependent theories used in CARES/LIFE, along with the input and output for CARES/LIFE, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various features of the program are also included.